Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart second quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Sonya Banerjee, Head of Investor Relations. Sonya, please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Sonya Banerjee。索尼婭，請繼續。

Thank you. Welcome to the Upstart earnings call for the second quarter of 2025. With me on today's call are Dave Girouard, our Co-Founder and CEO; Paul Gu, our Co-Founder and CTO; and Sanjay Datta, our CFO.

謝謝。歡迎參加 Upstart 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的共同創辦人兼執行長 Dave Girouard、我們的共同創辦人兼技術長 Paul Gu 以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which include statements about our outlook and business strategy. These statements are based on our expectations and beliefs as of today, which are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future performance.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關我們的前景和業務策略的陳述。這些聲明是基於我們今天的期望和信念，受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響，不應被視為對未來表現的保證。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

由於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Our discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for our GAAP results. Reconciliations of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in our earnings materials, which are available on our IR website. With that, Dave, over to you.

我們的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標不能取代我們的 GAAP 結果。我們的歷史 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對帳可以在我們的收益資料中找到，這些資料可在我們的 IR 網站上找到。好了，戴夫，交給你了。

Thanks, Sonya. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before I begin, I want to welcome my Co-Founder, Paul, to the call today. As most of you know, in May, we hosted our first Investor Day, what we call AI Day.

謝謝，索尼婭。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。在開始之前，我想歡迎我的共同創辦人保羅參加今天的電話會議。大家應該都知道，五月我們舉辦了第一屆投資人日，也就是我們所說的人工智慧日。

For many investors and analysts who cover Upstart, it was their first exposure to Paul. Unsurprisingly, AI Day generated a lot of interest in how he and his teams are creating the world's leading AI lending platform. After the event, many told us they'd like to see and hear more from Paul, so we asked him to join our quarterly earnings calls. You'll hear from Paul in just a bit.

對於許多關注 Upstart 的投資者和分析師來說，這是他們第一次接觸保羅。毫不奇怪，人工智慧日引起了人們對他和他的團隊如何創建世界領先的人工智慧借貸平台的極大興趣。活動結束後，許多人告訴我們，他們希望看到和聽到更多保羅的消息，所以我們邀請他參加我們的季度收益電話會議。您很快就會收到保羅的訊息。

On to the update. On our call a year ago, we provided the first signs that Upstart was returning to growth mode. And today, you can see it in full bloom. The second quarter was exceptional for Upstart. In addition to achieving triple-digit revenue growth, we reached GAAP profitability a quarter sooner than expected. Additionally, our newer businesses, Home and Auto, actually accelerated off the amazing growth you all saw from them in the first quarter.

繼續更新。在一年前的電話會議上，我們首次提出了 Upstart 正在恢復成長模式的跡象。今天，你可以看到它盛開。對於 Upstart 來說，第二季是一個非凡的季度。除了實現三位數的營收成長外，我們還比預期提前一個季度實現了 GAAP 獲利。此外，我們的新業務，家居和汽車，實際上在第一季實現了驚人的成長。

Originations on the Upstart platform in Q2 were $2.8 billion, our highest volume in three years. Revenue in Q2 grew 102% year on year, helping us deliver positive GAAP net income for the first time since Q2 2022. Our Auto business grew 87% sequentially, while our Home business grew 67% sequentially.

Upstart 平台第二季的發起額為 28 億美元，這是我們三年來的最高額度。第二季營收年增 102%，幫助我們自 2022 年第二季以來首次實現正的 GAAP 淨收入。我們的汽車業務較上季成長 87%，而家居業務則較上季成長 67%。

While this friendly sibling rivalry tends to go back and forth in terms of growth rate, I can happily say both businesses accelerated meaningfully from their Q1 growth. For the first time ever, more than 10% of our originations came from our newer businesses, including our small dollar loans, which grew 40% sequentially.

雖然這種友好的兄弟競爭在成長率方面往往會來來回回，但我可以高興地說，兩家公司在第一季的成長基礎上都取得了顯著的加速。有史以來第一次，我們的貸款有 10% 以上來自新業務，其中包括小額美元貸款，該貸款環比增長了 40%。

Our teams couldn't be happier. After a long period of super focused execution, it all just seems to be working right now.

我們的團隊非常高興。經過長時間的高度集中執行，現在一切似乎都開始發揮作用。

Once again, our growth last quarter was not a result of dramatic macro improvements or Fed rate decreases. In fact, the Upstart macro index has been largely stable for several months now. Our growth was primarily on the back of model improvements, which helped to drive conversion rates from 19% in Q1 to 24% in Q2. These wins came first and foremost from Model 22, which we launched in early May. Paul will share more about our model advancements shortly.

再次強調，我們上個季度的成長並非宏觀經濟大幅改善或聯準會降息的結果。事實上，Upstart 宏觀指數幾個月來基本上保持穩定。我們的成長主要得益於模型改進，這有助於將轉換率從第一季的 19% 提高到第二季的 24%。這些勝利首先來自我們在 5 月初推出的 Model 22。Paul 很快就會分享更多關於我們模型進步的資訊。

In addition to our ML team, our growth and operations teams continue to do amazing work to drive down the cost of acquisition and origination. These are technology-driven economic wins that result in a superior product for the consumer and a sustainable advantage for Upstart.

除了我們的機器學習團隊之外，我們的成長和營運團隊也持續做出出色的工作，以降低收購和發起成本。這些都是由科技驅動的經濟勝利，為消費者帶來了優質的產品，也為 Upstart 帶來了永續的優勢。

As I mentioned earlier, our emerging businesses are growing really quickly. Small dollar loans and Auto each crossed $100 million in quarterly originations in Q2, and we expect Home, the new kid on the block, to follow soon. Our newer products collectively drove almost 20% of new borrowers on the Upstart platform in Q2.

正如我之前提到的，我們的新興業務正在快速成長。第二季度，小額美元貸款和汽車貸款的季度發放額均突破 1 億美元，我們預計，新興的 Home 貸款也將很快跟進。我們推出的新產品在第二季為 Upstart 平台帶來了近 20% 的新借款人。

For each of these emerging products, we're now reaching the point where credit history is sufficient and volumes are substantial enough for third-party funding. In fact, we have a goal to transition most of the funding for these products off our balance sheet by the end of 2025, though deal timing is always hard to predict.

對於每一種新興產品，我們現在都已經達到了信用記錄充足、融資金額足以進行第三方融資的階段。事實上，我們的目標是到 2025 年底將這些產品的大部分資金從我們的資產負債表中轉移出去，儘管交易時機總是很難預測。

It's worth noting that our Auto Retail product, that is our software installed at car dealerships, has really gained traction and momentum in the last couple of months. This product has always presented unique challenges relative to our others, and it's clearly taken Upstart some time to get it right.

值得注意的是，我們的汽車零售產品（即我們在汽車經銷店安裝的軟體）在過去幾個月中確實獲得了關注和發展動力。與我們的其他產品相比，該產品始終面臨著獨特的挑戰，顯然 Upstart 花了一些時間才做好。

Several months ago, we took the decision to narrow the focus of our software on an exceptional financing process, and this focus has paid off in spades. The dealership adoption right now is like nothing we've seen in the past, and the volume of loan requests and closed agreements from our dealer partners is on a steep climb. This is a recent phenomenon, and I expect we'll share more about it as it plays out.

幾個月前，我們決定將軟體的重點縮小到卓越的融資流程上，而這項重點已獲得豐厚的回報。目前經銷商的採用情況是我們過去從未見過的，來自我們的經銷商合作夥伴的貸款申請和已達成協議的數量正在急劇上升。這是一個最近出現的現象，我希望隨著它的出現，我們能分享更多相關資訊。

In our Home business, we're increasingly confident we're on a path to building the best-in-class HELOC experience. Home is a massive and fragmented category with few players versed in AI and its amazing potential to power superior home lending products. In Q2, we launched instant property verification, with the first applicant completing the entire verification process in under one minute.

在我們的家庭業務中，我們越來越有信心，我們正在打造一流的 HELOC 體驗。住房是一個龐大而分散的類別，很少有參與者精通人工智慧，並且其擁有為優質房屋貸款產品提供動力的巨大潛力。在第二季度，我們推出了即時房產驗證，第一位申請人在一分鐘內完成了整個驗證過程。

Our system automatically verified their identity and income, assessed the property's value and any existing liens, and confirmed ownership and vesting information, all the key steps needed to close the loan. I believe this speed and efficiency in what is normally a slow handcrafted process is without precedent.

我們的系統自動驗證他們的身份和收入，評估財產價值和任何現有留置權，並確認所有權和歸屬信息，這些都是完成貸款所需的關鍵步驟。我相信，在通常緩慢的手工製作過程中，這種速度和效率是前所未有的。

We continue to strengthen the funding supply on Upstart's platform. Our funding partnerships have been both durable and scalable, allowing us to grow rapidly, while delivering the target returns our partners expect. With respect to banks and credit unions, we expect to reach a new all-time high for monthly available funding in Q3, surpassing our prior peak from early 2022.

我們持續加強Upstart平台的資金供給。我們的融資合作關係既持久又可擴展，使我們能夠快速發展，同時實現合作夥伴期望的目標回報。對於銀行和信用合作社，我們預計第三季每月可用資金將創下歷史新高，超過 2022 年初的高峰。

The funding markets continue to improve as the year progresses, particularly since the Liberation Day fears in early April subsided. In June, we priced and closed our second ABS deal of 2025, delivering significantly improved execution compared to our first, which closed in April. It's worth noting that the more recent transaction had nearly twice the number of investors as the first, including some new names.

隨著時間的推移，融資市場持續改善，特別是自四月初解放日恐慌消退以來。6 月份，我們定價並完成了 2025 年第二筆 ABS 交易，與 4 月份完成的第一筆交易相比，執行效果顯著改善。值得注意的是，最近這筆交易的投資者數量幾乎是第一筆交易的兩倍，其中包括一些新投資者。

We feel increasingly confident that these committed funding partnerships can scale with our business as needed and will play an important role as we begin to commercialize our newer products.

我們越來越有信心，這些承諾的資金合作夥伴關係可以根據我們的業務需求而擴大，並將在我們開始將新產品商業化時發揮重要作用。

Before I turn the call over to Paul, I'll share a few final thoughts. Looking over the last couple of years, we've done a lot of work to run our business more efficiently and streamline our cost structure, but we had conviction that investing in much larger Home and Auto opportunities made sense. These categories are ripe for AI disruption and they've expanded Upstart's TAM by more than 10x.

在我將電話轉給保羅之前，我想分享一些最後的想法。回顧過去幾年，我們做了很多工作來更有效地經營我們的業務並簡化我們的成本結構，但我們堅信，投資更大的家居和汽車機會是有意義的。這些類別已經為人工智慧顛覆做好了準備，它們已經將 Upstart 的 TAM 擴大了 10 倍以上。

Our considerable investments in Home and Auto are really paying off with fast growth, strong credit performance, rapidly improving separation, and commercial readiness, with nine lending partnership deals recently signed across one or more of our secured products already. To be clear, our goal is market share leadership in each one of these product categories in the future.

我們在家居和汽車領域的大量投資確實獲得了回報，快速的成長、強勁的信貸表現、迅速改善的分離度和商業準備度，最近我們已經針對一種或多種擔保產品簽署了九項貸款合作協議。明確地說，我們的目標是未來在每個產品類別中佔據市場份額的領先地位。

As our CMO, Chantal mentioned at AI Day, we're building the always-on everything store for credit, aiming to persistently underwrite 100% of Americans with the best credit products in the world just to click away, and we're off to a great start.

正如我們的行銷長 Chantal 在 AI Day 上提到的那樣，我們正在建立一個永遠在線的信用商店，旨在持續為 100% 的美國人提供世界上最好的信用產品，只需點擊一下即可，而且我們已經有了一個良好的開端。

Thanks. And now I'd like to turn it over to Paul, my Co-Founder and Upstart's Chief Technical Officer. Paul?

謝謝。現在我想把發言權交給我的共同創辦人兼 Upstart 技術長 Paul。保羅？

Thanks, Dave. Our aim at Upstart is to win by having objectively the best rates and process for borrowers and technology, specifically AI is how we do that. To that end, I want to highlight several areas of recent progress.

謝謝，戴夫。Upstart 的目標是透過為借款人提供客觀的最佳利率和流程以及技術（特別是人工智慧）來贏得勝利。為此，我想強調最近取得進展的幾個領域。

First, we've continued investing in our core AI advantage. Model 22 made use of neural networks at every level of the model architecture, whereas prior models only made use of neural networks in the base layer. That may sound like a subtlety, but it increased our separation accuracy advantage over our benchmark textbook credit model by 17 percentage points to 171.2%.

首先，我們持續投資於我們的核心人工智慧優勢。模型 22 在模型架構的每個層級都使用了神經網絡，而先前的模型僅在基礎層使用了神經網路。這聽起來可能有些微妙，但它使我們的分離準確度優勢比基準教科書學分模型提高了 17 個百分點，達到 171.2%。

Equivalently, it decreased the inaccuracy remaining to be solved to 87.5%. This is a metric where the starting point is the benchmark textbook credit model I described back at AI Day and 0% would be a model that gets every credit decision perfectly right.

等效地，它將剩餘待解決的不準確度降低到了 87.5%。這個指標的起點是我在 AI Day 上描述的基準教科書信用模型，而 0% 則是一個可以完美做出每個信用決策的模型。

As you can see, there is a long way to go, but fortunately, we have a commensurately long road map of model improvement ideas to get there.

如您所見，我們還有很長的路要走，但幸運的是，我們有一個相應長的模型改進思路路線圖來實現這一目標。

As of the end of Q2, core underwriting had 91 million borrower repayment events to train on, up from 86 million at the end of the prior quarter. To support the larger and more complex models, we invested in further parallelization and caching solutions that cut up to 17 seconds of latency off borrower pricing and saved on model costs. Those time and resource savings can now be reinvested in yet more powerful models.

截至第二季末，核心承保需要培訓的借款人還款事件有 9,100 萬起，高於上一季末的 8,600 萬起。為了支援更大、更複雜的模型，我們投資了進一步的平行化和快取解決方案，將借款人定價的延遲縮短了 17 秒，並節省了模型成本。節省下來的時間和資源現在可以重新投資於更強大的模型。

Second, servicing is the newest frontier for us and realizing loss reductions via best-in-class servicing has been a major focus. Over the past year, including the most recent quarter, we launched numerous improvements and optimizations to how customers can pay, how much they pay, and when they pay. As a result, year-over-year population-adjusted delinquency rates are down 20% and raw delinquency rates are down 32%.

其次，服務是我們最新的領域，透過一流的服務實現損失減少一直是我們的重點。在過去的一年裡，包括最近一個季度，我們對客戶的付款方式、付款金額和付款時間進行了大量的改進和優化。結果，以人口調整後的犯罪率較去年同期下降了 20%，原始犯罪率下降了 32%。

Machine learning is already informing many of these optimizations and will soon allow us to determine the causal impact of servicing actions we take. This will include assignment of specific agents, hardship programs or settlement offers to specific borrowers.

機器學習已經為許多此類優化提供了信息，並且很快將使我們能夠確定我們所採取的服務行動的因果影響。這將包括為特定借款人指派特定代理人、提供困難援助計劃或提供和解方案。

We also plan to apply machine learning to the problem of individualized recovery prediction for the first time ever, replacing a fixed assumption about an economically significant portion of loans’ cash flows with machine learning. Servicing wins directly improve loan loss rates on loans, which in turn improves the pricing and approvability of new loans.

我們也計劃首次將機器學習應用於個人化回收預測問題，以機器學習取代對貸款現金流量中具有經濟意義的部分的固定假設。服務勝利直接改善了貸款的損失率，進而提高了新貸款的定價和可批准性。

Third, we made strong progress in Q2 generalizing our AI technology across product verticals. I want to start by noting that even with accelerating growth in new products, our share of fully automated loans actually kept up this quarter. That will be challenging to keep pace with, but we're encouraged by wins we had across new products.

第三，我們在第二季在各個產品垂直領域推廣人工智慧技術方面取得了長足的進步。首先我想指出的是，即使新產品加速成長，我們本季的全自動貸款份額實際上仍保持穩定。保持這種步伐將會很有挑戰性，但我們對新產品的成功感到鼓舞。

As Dave mentioned, HELOC had its first instant property verification, which involves solving for over a dozen facts or documents that previously required waiting for a manual verification. In Auto refi, we launched full automation of the remote online notarization process. Both of these wins remove major procedural barriers to model-driven automation, which we've seen relentlessly drive the percentage of loans fully automated up in core personal loans over the past few years.

正如戴夫所提到的，HELOC 首次實現了即時財產驗證，其中涉及解決十幾個以前需要等待人工驗證的事實或文件。在汽車再融資方面，我們推出了遠端線上公證流程的全面自動化。這兩場勝利都消除了模型驅動自動化的主要程序障礙，我們看到，在過去幾年中，模型驅動自動化不斷推動核心個人貸款中完全自動化貸款的比例上升。

Our growth in auto has been supported by and coincides with strong advances in generalization of our core underwriting technology. Auto is the first area where instead of directly training an auto model, we start by training a foundational credit model on data from multiple credit categories and then apply fine-tuning to arrive at an auto-specific model.

我們在汽車保險領域的成長得益於我們核心核保技術推廣的強勁進步，並且與之相輔相成。汽車是第一個領域，我們不是直接訓練汽車模型，而是首先使用來自多個信用類別的資料訓練基礎信用模型，然後進行微調以得出特定於汽車的模型。

We are now working to add embeddings to the auto retail model, along with generalizing what we call APR as a feature and our macro framework from personal loans. This type of model generalization is powerful because it means all of our loan products can learn from repayment patterns observed across our platform, not just within their individual category.

我們現在正致力於將嵌入添加到汽車零售模型中，同時將我們所謂的 APR 概括為一個特徵，並將我們的個人貸款宏觀框架推廣開來。這種模型泛化非常強大，因為這意味著我們所有的貸款產品都可以從我們平台上觀察到的還款模式中學習，而不僅僅是在各自的類別中。

Lastly, I want to touch on generative AI and its applications to our business. I'll start with the table stakes. Like any good tech company, we've realized solid productivity wins from application of large language models to our internal operations. 60% of our developers are weekly active users of LLM-powered developer tools and teams all across the company have built over 700 custom GPTs to automate various internal workflows.

最後，我想談談生成人工智慧及其在我們業務中的應用。我先從賭注開始。與任何優秀的科技公司一樣，我們透過將大型語言模型應用於內部運營，實現了顯著的生產力提升。 60% 的開發人員是 LLM 驅動的開發人員工具的每週活躍用戶，整個公司的團隊已經建立了 700 多個自訂 GPT 來自動化各種內部工作流程。

More interesting are the applications to the end borrower. We've already launched early versions of borrower impacting generative AI tools around model explainability and customer service. We will continue to build on these with an eye towards eventual agentic management of our consumers' credit needs.

更有趣的是針對最終借款人的應用。我們已經圍繞模型可解釋性和客戶服務推出了影響借款人的生成式人工智慧工具的早期版本。我們將繼續在此基礎上進一步努力，最終實現對消費者信貸需求的代理管理。

As Dave has discussed, one of our key priorities in 2025 is to 10x our leadership in AI. We continue to have a robust pipeline of modeling wins, and I'm incredibly proud of the team and what we've been able to accomplish so far.

正如戴夫所討論的，我們 2025 年的主要任務之一是將我們在人工智慧領域的領導地位提高 10 倍。我們繼續擁有強大的建模勝利管道，我對團隊以及我們迄今為止所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

With that, I'll turn it over to Sanjay. Sanjay?

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給桑傑 (Sanjay)。桑傑？

Thanks, Paul, and thanks to all of our participants for sharing some of your time with us today. I'll now spend some time giving context on our numbers.

謝謝保羅，也感謝所有參與者今天抽出時間與我們分享。我現在將花一些時間來介紹我們的數位背景。

With respect to its impact on financial performance, the credit environment we operate in was largely a non-story in Q2. The emergence from last quarter's tax seasonality played out roughly as expected. The broader macro has been idling in regards to its impact on credit trends, registering as neither a significant headwind nor tailwind over the past six months.

就其對財務表現的影響而言，我們經營所處的信貸環境在第二季基本上沒有什麼問題。上個季度稅收季節性的出現大致符合預期。宏觀經濟對信貸趨勢的影響一直沒有顯現，過去六個月既沒有明顯的逆風，也沒有明顯的順風。

As Dave alluded to, the strong sequential momentum we achieved in Q2 is largely due to the strength of our model launches during the quarter. In addition, take rates and contribution margins increased in the core personal loan business, although in our aggregate numbers, these dynamics were partially offset by the continued rapid scaling of the newer Home and Auto products, which still have immature unit economics.

正如戴夫所提到的，我們在第二季度取得的強勁成長勢頭很大程度上歸功於我們在本季推出的車型的強勁表現。此外，核心個人貸款業務的利率和貢獻利潤率有所提高，儘管從我們的總體數據來看，這些動態被較新的家庭和汽車產品的持續快速擴張所部分抵消，因為這些產品的單位經濟效益仍然不成熟。

The combination of these effects allowed us to beat our guidance across both top and bottom lines in Q2 and break through to GAAP profitability a quarter earlier than anticipated.

這些因素的綜合作用使我們在第二季度的營收和利潤均超出預期，並比預期提前一個季度實現 GAAP 盈利。

We have been able to comfortably fund the ongoing growth in the core personal loan business through our existing lending relationships and capital structures. The main source of pressure on the balance sheet as it currently stands is from the continued scaling of the new products and an increasing priority for us this year will be to finalize and implement our third-party capital plan for these new products.

透過現有的貸款關係和資本結構，我們能夠輕鬆地為核心個人貸款業務的持續成長提供資金。目前資產負債表的主要壓力來自於新產品的持續擴大，今年我們的首要任務就是完成並實施針對這些新產品的第三方資本計畫。

With this as context, here are some of the financial highlights from Q2 of 2025. Total revenue for Q2 came in at approximately $257 million, up 102% year on year. This overall number included revenue from fees of approximately $241 million, which was up 84% year on year and 15% better than guidance.

在此背景下，以下是 2025 年第二季的一些財務亮點。第二季總營收約 2.57 億美元，年增 102%。這一總體數字包括約 2.41 億美元的費用收入，年增 84%，比預期高出 15%。

Within this, transactional revenue more than doubled year on year, largely reflecting the influence of the aforementioned Model 22. Separately, servicing fee revenue grew by nearly 20% year on year as the outstanding book of serviced loans continued to expand.

其中，交易收入較去年同期成長一倍以上，很大程度上反映了前述模型22的影響。另外，隨著服務貸款餘額的不斷擴大，服務費收入較去年同期成長近20％。

Net interest income represented roughly $17 million of overall revenue, ahead of guidance by $2 million, reflecting the growing volume of new products being incubated on our balance sheet and in particular, the Auto book of loans where our return on investment has meaningfully strengthened.

淨利息收入約佔總收入的 1,700 萬美元，比預期高出 200 萬美元，這反映了我們資產負債表上正在孵化的新產品數量的增長，特別是汽車貸款帳簿，我們的投資回報率已顯著提高。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform was approximately 373,000, up 159% from the prior year and 55% sequentially and representing just over 250,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of approximately $7,570 was 15% lower than the prior quarter as model advancements drove higher approval rates in smaller loan amounts.

我們平台的貸款交易量約為 373,000 筆，比上年增長 159%，比上一季增長 55%，新增借款人略多於 250,000 人。平均貸款額約為 7,570 美元，比上一季低 15%，因為模型進步提高了小額貸款的批准率。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 58% in Q2, up 3 percentage points from the prior quarter and exceeding guidance. This improvement reflects a strengthening take rate in our core borrower segment in addition to the acquisition and operational unit cost efficiencies driven in part by Model 22.

我們的貢獻利潤率（非 GAAP 指標）定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的變動成本佔費用收入的百分比，第二季度的貢獻利潤率為 58%，比上一季度上升了 3 個百分點，超過了預期。這項改善不僅反映了我們核心借款人部門的接受率上升，也反映了部分由模型 22 推動的收購和營運單位成本效率的提高。

GAAP operating expenses were roughly $252 million in Q2, up 16% sequentially from Q1. Expenses that are considered variable relating to borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing were up 21% sequentially relative to the 55% increase in volume of loan transactions, supporting the higher contribution margins previously referenced.

第二季 GAAP 營運費用約 2.52 億美元，較第一季較第一季成長 16%。與借款人獲取、驗證和服務相關的可變費用環比增長 21%，而貸款交易量則增長了 55%，這支持了先前提到的更高的貢獻利潤率。

Fixed expenses were up 13% quarter over quarter, largely reflecting a one-time catch-up in the compensation-related accruals, which on the current business trajectory, we expect will normalize in the back half of the year.

固定支出環比增長 13%，主要反映了與薪酬相關的應計費用的一次性追趕，並按照目前的業務軌跡，我們預計這將在今年下半年恢復正常。

Q2 GAAP net income was approximately positive $6 million, well ahead of expectation and reflecting outperformance on fee revenue against our tightly managed fixed cost base.

第二季 GAAP 淨收入約為正 600 萬美元，遠遠超出預期，反映了費用收入相對於我們嚴格管理的固定成本基礎的優異表現。

Returning to GAAP profitability has been an important objective of ours over the past year, and I am proud that our team has reached this milestone ahead of schedule and while subsisting in the persistently high default environment that still surrounds us today. Now that we are over the line, we will look forward to continuing the positive momentum of our bottom line and to improving our profitability profile as we scale.

恢復 GAAP 獲利能力是我們過去一年來的一個重要目標，我很自豪我們的團隊提前實現了這一里程碑，並且在我們今天仍然面臨的持續高違約環境中生存下來。現在我們已經跨越了界限，我們期待繼續保持盈利的積極勢頭，並在擴大規模的同時提高盈利狀況。

Adjusted EBITDA was $53 million, also scaling nicely in accordance with our operating leverage. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.36 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 118 million.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,300 萬美元，也根據我們的經營槓桿實現了良好的成長。根據稀釋加權平均股數 1.18 億計算，調整後每股收益為 0.36 美元。

We ended Q2 with approximately $1.02 billion of loans held directly on our balance sheet, up from $815 million in Q1. This sequential increase is mainly due to the continuing growth of our new products, which have all simultaneously entered the transitional period between R&D and commercialization, a period in which we must ramp deliberately in order to demonstrate credit performance and our ability to deliver meaningful volume before obtaining third-party funding commitments.

截至第二季度，我們的資產負債表上直接持有的貸款約為 10.2 億美元，高於第一季的 8.15 億美元。這一連續成長主要歸功於我們新產品的持續成長，這些產品同時進入了研發和商業化的過渡期，在此期間，我們必須謹慎地加大產量，以證明信貸業績以及我們在獲得第三方融資承諾之前提供有意義產量的能力。

In this regard, we are in a bridging period with these new products, which is precipitating what we expect to be a temporary expansion of the balance sheet usage that we intend to reverse as these products exit incubation.

在這方面，我們正處於這些新產品的過渡期，這促使我們預期資產負債表使用將暫時擴大，而隨著這些產品退出孵化階段，我們打算扭轉這種局面。

As Dave mentioned, we have already begun the process of securing external capital to support these initiatives, and we believe these efforts will allow us to transition away from direct balance sheet funding of these in the near term.

正如戴夫所提到的，我們已經開始爭取外部資本來支持這些舉措，我們相信這些努力將使我們在短期內擺脫直接透過資產負債表融資的模式。

As we plan for the back half of the year, our macro assumptions remain consistent with our prior view, which is to say a steady environment with the UMI continuing in the 1.4 to 1.5 range, steady interest rate levels, and a labor market that remains resilient in the face of unpredictable policy shifts.

在我們規劃下半年時，我們的宏觀假設與我們先前的觀點保持一致，也就是說，環境穩定，UMI 繼續保持在 1.4 至 1.5 的範圍內，利率水準穩定，勞動力市場在不可預測的政策變化面前仍保持彈性。

Inflation will remain a near-term risk. In this environment, we expect to continue to launch model enhancements that will improve conversion rates, our take rates and contribution margins will remain robust, and we will continue to scale and fund the newer products.

通貨膨脹仍將是近期的風險。在這種環境下，我們預計將繼續推出能夠提高轉換率的模型增強功能，我們的接受率和貢獻利潤率將保持強勁，並且我們將繼續擴大規模並資助新產品。

In this scenario, for Q3 of 2025, we would expect total revenues of approximately $280 million, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $275 million, and total net interest income of approximately positive $5 million.

在這種情況下，我們預計 2025 年第三季的總收入約為 2.8 億美元，其中費用收入約為 2.75 億美元，總淨利息收入約為正 500 萬美元。

Contribution margin of approximately 58%; GAAP net income of approximately positive $9 million; adjusted net income of approximately $44 million; adjusted EBITDA of approximately $56 million with a basic weighted average share count of approximately 97 million shares; and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 105 million shares.

貢獻利潤率約 58%；GAAP 淨收入約為正 900 萬美元；調整後淨收入約 4,400 萬美元；調整後 EBITDA 約 5,600 萬美元，基本加權平均股數約 9,700 萬股；稀釋加權平均股數約 1.05 億股。

For the full year of 2025, we now expect total revenues of approximately $1.055 billion, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $990 million and net interest income of approximately positive $65 million, an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20%, and we expect GAAP net income of approximately positive $35 million.

對於 2025 年全年，我們現在預計總收入約為 10.55 億美元，其中包括費用收入約 9.9 億美元和淨利息收入約正 6,500 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 20%，我們預計 GAAP 淨收入約為正 3,500 萬美元。

These numbers are, of course, the outcome of a lot of hard work and great execution by the various teams across Upstart. So I'll take this opportunity to both thank and congratulate all of those teams.

當然，這些數字都是 Upstart 各個團隊辛勤工作和出色執行的結果。因此，我要藉此機會向所有這些團隊表示感謝和祝賀。

And with that, operator, over to you to kick off the Q&A.

接線生，現在由您開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Peter Christiansen, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Peter Christiansen。

Really great results. Dave, Sanjay, I just wondering if you could chat about ABS -- the health of the ABS market. Are you seeing any appetite for equity tranche investments at all? And then I'm curious if you had any thoughts on more competitors coming into the more near prime space, also the prime from a loan platform perspective. Are you seeing any competitive pressure there?

確實取得了很好的成果。戴夫、桑傑，我只是想知道你們是否可以聊聊 ABS——ABS 市場的健康狀況。您是否看到了對股權投資的興趣？然後我很好奇，您是否對更多競爭對手進入更接近黃金市場（從貸款平台的角度來看，也是黃金市場）有什麼看法。您是否感受到那裡的競爭壓力？

Pete, Sanjay here. Great to hear your voice. The ABS markets, let's see, I think have returned to being a somewhat regular issuer now on the cadence that we would like. I think the bond market is very constructive. The residual or equity market that you asked about I would call it an opportunistic market right now.

皮特，我是桑傑。很高興聽到你的聲音。讓我們看看，我認為 ABS 市場現在已經按照我們所希望的節奏恢復到了比較規律的發行狀態。我認為債券市場非常具有建設性。您所詢問的剩餘市場或股權市場我現在稱之為機會市場。

There are buyers. I don't think they -- it is an efficient market, and I think buyers sort of pick and choose deals. So I wouldn't call that market back in the way that I think the bond market is. But overall, it's a constructive market, and we're certainly happy to be a regular issuer again.

有買家。我不認為這是一個有效的市場，我認為買家會挑選交易。因此，我認為該市場不會像債券市場那樣回落。但總體而言，這是一個建設性的市場，我們當然很高興再次成為常規發行人。

Pete, this is Dave. I'd just say on the competitors, to the extent the funding markets have improved and capital markets have improved somewhat through the year, I think that does tend to bring more competitors into the space. So unsurprisingly, it's a fairly competitive game these days.

皮特，這是戴夫。關於競爭對手，我只想說，隨著融資市場和資本市場在一年內有所改善，我認為這確實會吸引更多的競爭對手進入該領域。因此毫不奇怪，如今這項運動的競爭相當激烈。

But again, we're very focused on having best offers, both at super prime level and at our core business as well and also very confident in our ability to grow our market share and keep our strength in those markets as well.

但是，我們再次強調，我們非常注重提供最好的報價，無論是在超優質水平還是在我們的核心業務中，並且對我們擴大市場份額和保持在這些市場的實力的能力非常有信心。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊‧埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

I wanted to ask about the increase in the loans on the balance sheet. And Sanjay, you mentioned that those you would start transitioning to external funding in the near term. I just want to kind of zero in on what that means exactly. Should we expect next quarter that amount to begin rolling down, decreasing? Or is it going to take a little more time to line up the external funding category? And I guess what will be the pace of decline there that we should expect over the next few quarters?

我想詢問一下資產負債表上貸款增加的情況。桑傑，您提到您將在短期內開始轉向外部融資。我只是想弄清楚這到底意味著什麼。我們是否應該預期下個季度這個數字會開始下降？或是需要更多時間來排列外部資金類別？我猜想未來幾季我們預期的下降速度會是怎麼樣？

Yeah, Ramsey. Yeah, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, a lot of the volume on the balance sheet today are from our new products. So our core business, I think, is well-funded. Categories like Home and Auto are growing quickly. So it's a bit of a good problem to have, sort of the original use case for the balance sheet, which is R&D and incubation.

是的，拉姆齊。是的，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，今天資產負債表上的許多數據都來自我們的新產品。所以我認為我們的核心業務資金充足。家居和汽車等類別正在快速成長。所以這是一個好問題，有點像是資產負債表的原始用例，即研發和孵化。

In terms of time frame to get the flows moving to third-party capital, I think we're looking at a time line that's sort of roughly between now and the end of the year. And a lot of that is just about new originations and getting that flow to capital sources.

就資金流向第三方資本的時間表而言，我認為我們正在考慮一個大致從現在到年底的時間表。其中很大一部分只是關於新創企業以及將資金流向資本來源。

I think as we make those deals, obviously, we'll opportunistically use our balance sheet to seed those relationships. So I think as we sort of transition the new flows, you should see our balance sheet start to release as well. But yes, I would give sort of a couple of quarter time line on that dynamic.

我認為，當我們達成這些交易時，顯然我們會抓住機會利用我們的資產負債表來建立這些關係。因此我認為，隨著我們轉變新的流程，您應該會看到我們的資產負債表也開始發布。但是是的，我會針對這種動態給出幾個季度的時間軸。

Okay. One quick follow-up. The super prime percentage of loans as a percentage of total just declined a little bit quarter over quarter. I'm just curious what is the driver there? Is it mix? Is it underwriting decisions? How is that trending right now?

好的。一次快速跟進。超級優惠貸款佔貸款總額的比例較上季略有下降。我只是好奇那裡的司機是誰？是混合的嗎？這是承保決定嗎？現在的趨勢如何？

I don't think it's anything in particular because I think we have enormous room to grow in our core as well as in super prime and both are growing very quickly. So it wouldn't surprise me that it kind of goes back and forth. We have enormous market share opportunity across those product segments. So to me, that's not surprising.

我認為這沒有什麼特別的，因為我認為我們的核心業務和超級業務都有巨大的成長空間，而且兩者都在快速成長。因此，這種反覆出現的情況我並不感到驚訝。我們在這些產品領域擁有龐大的市佔機會。所以對我來說這並不奇怪。

We're also really just beginning to build in the depth of funding in the super prime segment. So we do have very competitive funding in super prime, but we need to build the depth there, and that will allow us to scale while keeping prices in a very competitive place. So that's kind of the process going on there. I wouldn't read anything more into it than that.

我們實際上才剛開始在超級優質領域建立深度融資。因此，我們在超級優質領域確實擁有非常有競爭力的資金，但我們需要在那裡建立深度，這將使我們能夠擴大規模，同時保持價格處於非常有競爭力的水平。這就是那裡正在發生的過程。我不會對此做任何進一步的解讀。

Simon Clinch, Rothschild & Company Redburn.

西蒙‧克林奇 (Simon Clinch)，羅斯柴爾德公司雷德伯恩分公司。

Maybe I could just start with the pretty impressive step-up in contribution margin versus your guidance. And Sanjay, could you perhaps break that down? I mean I presume some of that is due to sort of lesser mix of prime within the mix of loans that you've originated, but also the comment around take rates being higher. Could you just talk to that and elaborate a little bit more, please?

也許我可以從與您的指導相比貢獻利潤率的顯著提升開始。桑傑，你能解釋一下嗎？我的意思是，我推測部分原因是由於您發放的貸款組合中優質貸款比例較低，而且利率較高。您能否就此進行討論並詳細說明一下？

Yeah. Sure, Simon. Yeah, I guess the overall contribution margin improved. That is in the face of yet sort of growing new products, which have immature unit economics. So you may infer that the contribution margin of our core business grew by even more. And within that, there's both a mix benefit from having slightly more core borrower segment loans versus super prime. Those loans obviously have higher margin than very super prime loans.

是的。當然，西蒙。是的，我想整體貢獻利潤率有所提高。這是針對仍在成長的新產品而言的，這些產品的單位經濟效益還不成熟。因此你可以推斷，我們核心業務的貢獻利潤率成長得更多。其中，核心借款人部分貸款略多於超級優質貸款，可帶來混合效益。這些貸款的利潤率顯然比超優質貸款高。

And then within that core borrower segment, there in of itself, our contribution margins and our take rates improved. And some of that is a result of the model launch we had, an improved model improves conversion rates that decreases acquisition costs like-for-like. And so there's sort of benefits to the unit cost side.

然後，在核心借款人群體中，我們的貢獻利潤率和接受率本身就提高了。這在一定程度上是我們推出的模型的結果，改進的模型提高了轉換率，從而降低了同類產品的收購成本。因此，這對單位成本方面來說有一定的好處。

And then even our take rates within that core borrower segment in the personal loan business saw some improvement, I think largely a result of the ongoing cost or sort of the take rate optimization that we're always doing, trying to understand elasticities in the different bands and optimizing against them. So that gave us some opportunity to improve our take rates and our contribution margins overall.

然後，即使我們個人貸款業務中核心借款人部分的利率也看到了一些改善，我認為這主要是由於持續的成本或我們一直在進行的利率優化，試圖了解不同範圍內的彈性並對其進行優化。因此，這給了我們一些機會來提高我們的整體收益率和貢獻利潤率。

Okay. That's great. And just a follow-up, just on the outlook you've provided and your comments around the macro that we're seeing. Perhaps you could just give us a sense of what assumptions you're making around that are sort of fed into your guidance? Because I see that the third quarter is a little bit above consensus, but the fourth quarter looks like it's kind of unchanged relative to consensus.

好的。那太棒了。這只是後續問題，只是針對您提供的展望以及您對我們所看到的宏觀的評論。也許您可以讓我們了解您所做的假設以及這些假設是如何融入您的指導中的？因為我發現第三季的數據略高於普遍預期，但第四季的數據相對於普遍預期而言似乎沒有變化。

And given the substantial beat this quarter, it feels like you're holding something in reserves. So I just want to get a sense of that.

鑑於本季度的大幅增長，感覺就像您保留了一些儲備。所以我只是想了解這一點。

Well, let's see, one part of your question was about macro assumption. We're typically conservative with respect to the macro. We sort of roughly expect the status quo. So the main way that we measure that, of course, is in UMI, the macro index we have, which is hovering in the 1.5 range, and we sort of plan to a consistent UMI for the rest of the year, so remaining in a relatively high default rate.

好吧，讓我們看看，你的問題的一部分是關於宏觀假設的。我們對宏觀通常持保守態度。我們大致可以預期現狀。因此，我們衡量這一點的主要方式當然是 UMI，即我們的宏觀指數，它徘徊在 1.5 的範圍內，我們計劃在今年剩餘時間內保持 UMI 的一致性，因此違約率將保持在相對較高的水平。

We plan for no real cuts in interest rates in the market. Obviously, there's a lot of speculation around what that might look like for the rest of the year, but we certainly don't bank on anything in that regard.

我們計劃不真正降低市場利率。顯然，人們對今年剩餘時間的情況有很多猜測，但我們當然不會對這方面抱有任何希望。

And we're sort of continuing to rely on a relatively resilient labor market, notwithstanding the noise of the last week or so. I think the labor market continues to be in relatively good shape in terms of how many open jobs there are out there versus how many people are seeking jobs. So that's sort of the totality of the macro assumptions that go into our planning, and I think it's a relatively conservative sort of kind of a status quo if you will.

儘管過去一周左右出現了一些波動，但我們仍然依賴相對有彈性的勞動力市場。我認為，就空缺職位數量與求職人數而言，勞動市場持續處於相對良好的狀態。這就是我們規劃中涉及的所有宏觀假設，我認為，如果你願意的話，這是一種相對保守的現狀。

You also asked a little bit about the shape of the guidance. I would just say that we have relatively direct line of sight into what things are going to drive our Q3 numbers. Those projects are very sort of near term and rounding the corner.

您也詢問了一些有關指導形狀的問題。我只想說，我們對哪些因素將影響我們第三季的業績有著相對直接的了解。這些項目都是近期的，即將完成。

And so we feel very confident in being able to guide against them. I think there's a lot of things we're excited about with respect to Q4 and how that's going to go, but I don't think we quite have the line of sight required to guide specifically against them. And so I think that a lot of the near-term uplift you see is just excitement over some of the sort of the projects and the dynamics that we can see much more in front of us.

因此，我們非常有信心能夠引導他們應對這些問題。我認為，我們對第四季度的許多事情以及其發展方向感到興奮，但我認為我們還沒有完全掌握針對這些事情的具體指導。因此，我認為，您所看到的許多近期增長只是對某些項目和我們面前可以看到的更多動態的興奮。

Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

瑞穗的丹‧多列夫 (Dan Dolev)。

Amazing results, as always, very proud of you. My biggest question is the UMI, what could make it go up or down as we move throughout the year? This is the key question.

一如既往的驚人成果，為你感到驕傲。我最大的疑問是 UMI，是什麼導致它在全年中上升或下降？這是關鍵問題。

Great to hear from you. Let's see. UMI, I mean, it is ultimately a reflection of the impact of the macro on credit trends. I think the things we think most about in terms of what could move it, what could make it go down? I think the main thing is improvement in savings rates, improvement in consumption patterns relative to income.

很高興收到你的來信。讓我們來看看。UMI，我的意思是，它最終反映了宏觀對信貸趨勢的影響。我認為我們考慮最多的事情是什麼可以推動它，什麼可以讓它下降？我認為最主要的是儲蓄率的提高，以及相對於收入的消費模式的改善。

I think we've been consistent in saying that the American consumer in aggregate is probably overspending relative to the income levels that we're earning, and that's been true for a while now. And if that balance improves, we would expect that credit trends would improve as well. In the opposite direction, you might imagine things like a reacceleration in inflation or significant unemployment.

我認為我們一直一致認為，美國消費者總體上可能相對於我們的收入水平而言支出過多，而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。如果這種平衡得到改善，我們預期信貸趨勢也會改善。相反地，你可能會想像通貨膨脹再次加速或失業率大幅上升等情況。

Kyle Peterson, Needham.

凱爾彼得森，尼德姆。

I want to start off on like the average loan size and the take rate. It seems like that's been drifting down, at least in the core personal loan product. Should we continue to see that drift down? And I guess like is that a strategic shift? Or is that like a broader response to the macro where that's where you guys are seeing like the most favorable risk reward here, I guess, just trying to level set on kind of what's strategic versus like what's the market conditions response here?

我想先了解平均貸款規模和貸款利率。看起來，至少在核心個人貸款產品方面，這一比例一直在下降。我們是否應該繼續看到這種下滑趨勢？我猜這是否是一種策略轉變？或者這是否是對宏觀的更廣泛的反應，你們在這裡看到了最有利的風險回報，我想，只是試圖在策略層面與市場條件反應之間進行平衡？

Hey Kyle, this is Dave. I think you can, I guess, categorize it as strategic, meaning it's intentional because it really is reflecting the very rapid growth of the small dollar product, which for us is really, again, pushing the boundaries of the credit model, getting much more people onto the platform. It accounts for a lot of our new users. They can be upsold to other products like Auto refinance, et cetera. So it is definitely the fact that, that product, which has much, much smaller loan sizes is growing very rapidly.

嘿，凱爾，我是戴夫。我認為你可以將其歸類為策略性的，這意味著它是有意為之，因為它確實反映了小額美元產品的快速成長，對我們來說，這再次突破了信貸模式的界限，讓更多的人加入平台。它為我們帶來了許多新用戶。它們可以追加銷售給其他產品，如汽車再融資等。因此，事實是，這種貸款規模小得多的產品成長非常迅速。

And again, our goal is to have like every American persistently underwritten on the platform. So having more and more ways to get them in is, from our perspective, good and having more products to cross-sell to them. So that's all part of the larger game plan. And I don't know if you'll see it continue to go back down.

再說一次，我們的目標是讓每個美國人都堅持使用這個平台。因此，從我們的角度來看，擁有越來越多的方法來吸引他們是一件好事，而且有更多的產品可以交叉銷售給他們。這都是更大計劃的一部分。我不知道你是否會看到它繼續下降。

Right now, products at the other end, like mortgage and home loans are growing, so at some point, these will outweigh each other. There's no real change other than the product mix itself is getting more diverse.

目前，另一端的產品，如抵押貸款和房屋貸款正在成長，因此在某個時候，它們將相互抵消。除了產品組合本身變得更加多樣化之外，沒有什麼真正的改變。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then I guess on some of these new products, obviously, it seems like a really good opportunities are in like HELOC and Auto. How would, I guess, like you guys compare the competition there versus the core personal loan product?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我想，對於這些新產品來說，顯然，HELOC 和 Auto 等產品確實存在著很好的機會。我想，你們會如何比較那裡的競爭和核心個人貸款產品？

Is it equally as much of a knife fight? Or like is the sledding any easier or tougher? I guess, just kind of how should we think about the economics of these products, especially as they shift to external funding and the ability to scale quickly? Any color there would be really helpful.

這是否同樣像一場刀戰？或者說滑雪橇是更容易還是更困難？我想，我們應該如何看待這些產品的經濟性，尤其是當它們轉向外部融資和快速擴大規模的能力時？任何顏色都會很有幫助。

Yeah, I think I mean these products are different and our ability to create a very differentiated product happens in a different way. I would say in the unsecured products, the underwriting itself is a big part of the advantage and the magic that we bring to the market, and that is what's built the company.

是的，我想這些產品是不同的，我們創造差異化產品的能力也不同。我想說，在無擔保產品中，承保本身是我們為市場帶來的優勢和魔力的重要組成部分，這也是公司建立的基礎。

And the newer products, particularly like Home, Auto refi, they're actually quite low loss rates, prime-ish products. But the real opportunity for both Home and Auto is to create a very differentiated experience and process that costs a lot less to originate and also just creates a far better consumer experience.

而較新的產品，特別是像家庭、汽車再融資，它們的損失率實際上相當低，屬於優質產品。但對於家居和汽車來說，真正的機會是創造一種非常差異化的體驗和流程，這種體驗和流程的創建成本要低得多，同時也能創造更好的消費者體驗。

So the relative ability to price differentiate isn't as great as it is in unsecured, but the ability to create a very much differentiated experience for the consumer and also a lower cost origination is much larger for those products.

因此，相對價格差異化的能力不如無擔保債券那麼強，但為消費者創造差異化體驗以及降低成本的能力對這些產品來說要大得多。

So overall, that's what we kind of keep pushing on and sharing. We mentioned automating a lot of the process of getting a home equity line of credit. That's a product that normally would take more than a month on average to get from your local bank or credit union, and we can do it just in a few days or even faster. So that, to me, is important.

總的來說，這就是我們不斷推動和分享的內容。我們提到了獲取房屋淨值信貸額度的諸多流程的自動化。通常情況下，從當地銀行或信用社獲得該產品平均需要一個多月的時間，而我們只需幾天甚至更短的時間即可完成。所以，對我來說，這很重要。

AI can bring not only pricing things properly, but also just eliminating the friction and reducing the risk in highly automated, very efficient ways.

人工智慧不僅可以合理定價，還可以以高度自動化、高效的方式消除摩擦並降低風險。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Maybe just starting with the newer products, particularly the Home and Auto. You mentioned you're working on additional funding partners or funding partners to get some of that off the balance sheet. Can you provide a little bit more color on that? Are those going to be more bank partners? Are you thinking securitization? How are you thinking about that?

也許只是從較新的產品開始，特別是家居和汽車產品。您提到您正在尋找更多的資金合作夥伴或資金合作夥伴來將其中的一些從資產負債表中剔除。您能對此提供更多詳細資訊嗎？是否會有更多的銀行夥伴？您在考慮證券化嗎？您對此有何看法？

Mihir, this is Dave. I mean it will be a combination of banks and credit unions. For both Home and Auto, they have a lot of history and familiarity with those products. Particularly, HELOCs are something that are extremely popular in the bank and credit union world. So I would say on a relative basis, they would probably have a larger play there relative to the institutional capital, private credit capital.

Mihir，這是 Dave。我的意思是它將是銀行和信用合作社的結合體。對於家居和汽車產品，他們有著豐富的歷史和熟悉度。特別是，HELOC 在銀行和信用合作社領域非常受歡迎。因此我想說，相對而言，相對於機構資本、私人信貸資本，他們可能會發揮更大的作用。

Though as we go, we will always find the right most competitive combination of capital to have the best product in the market. And I think that's actually what's unique about our position as we have both depository capital as well as private credit and other sources of institutional funding in effect, competing with each other to make the best product for the consumer. And I think these things relative to the unsecured product, this will swing -- I think the other products will swing a bit more toward depository capital.

然而，隨著我們的前進，我們總是會找到最具競爭力的資本組合，以在市場上推出最好的產品。我認為這其實是我們的獨特之處，因為我們既有存款資本，又有私人信貸和其他機構資金來源，相互競爭，為消費者提供最好的產品。我認為這些與無擔保產品相關的產品將會發生轉變——我認為其他產品將更多地轉向存款資本。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just turning maybe I think on the conversion rate improvement, you mentioned the biggest driver was the new product, the new model, which launched in early May, if I heard that correctly. So does that mean you only got the benefit of two months. So 3Q conversion rate should be even higher from there? And just if I could also just throw in there, if you could just talk a little bit about the Walmart partnership, any call-outs there?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，也許我認為在轉換率提高方面，您提到最大的驅動力是新產品、新車型，如果我沒聽錯的話，它們在 5 月初推出。那麼這是否意味著你只獲得了兩個月的福利？那麼第三季的轉換率應該會更高嗎？如果我可以插一句，您能否稍微談談與沃爾瑪的合作關係，有什麼特別之處嗎？

We aren't really forecasting anything about conversion rates for current quarter. There's always puts and takes on conversion rates. When it goes up, we often end up spending more and pulling it back down intentionally. In other words, turning conversion rate into extra growth. So there's just not a straightforward kind of up and to the right on conversion rates.

我們實際上並沒有對本季的轉換率做出任何預測。轉換率總是有得有失。當利率上升時，我們往往會花更多的錢，然後故意將其拉低。換句話說，將轉換率轉化為額外的成長。因此，轉換率並沒有直接的上升和下降趨勢。

If you sort of see the chart that we provide in the investor deck, I think it's a great illustration of how conversion rate trades off with volume. And so I'd say that. On Walmart, we continue with that partnership. It's been a great success for us thus far, but we don't have anything new we want to share about it today.

如果您看到我們在投資者簡報中提供的圖表，我認為它很好地說明了轉換率如何與交易量相互影響。所以我會這麼說。在沃爾瑪，我們將繼續維持這種合作關係。到目前為止，這對我們來說是一個巨大的成功，但是今天我們沒有什麼新東西想要分享。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Congrats on the quarter. Really strong quarter. I had a follow-up on the conversion rate. I'm not sure if you guys have shared this in the past or if you're comfortable sharing it. But I'd love to hear about, I guess, the two elements of conversion rate, the approval rate and then kind of the acceptance rate is how I've been thinking about it. I guess, one, am I thinking about that right?

恭喜本季取得佳績。本季表現確實強勁。我對轉換率進行了追蹤。我不確定你們以前是否分享過這個或是否願意分享它。但我很想聽聽，我想，轉換率、批准率和接受率這兩個要素就是我一直在思考的問題。我想，首先，我這樣想對嗎？

And then two, can you talk about how those ratios have maybe changed versus the prior year? And then as we think about the new model, maybe anecdotally, talk a little bit about the types of people or the profile of the people that may have been rejected before that they're being approved today. Obviously, I don't want to give your secret sauce, but just any color you can give there? And I have one follow-up.

第二，您能談談這些比率與前一年相比發生了哪些變化嗎？然後，當我們思考新模型時，也許會以軼事的方式，談論以前可能被拒絕但今天被批准的人的類型或概況。顯然，我不想透露你的秘密武器，但你能透露任何顏色嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Reggie, your sort of decomposition of conversion rates is correct. It's sort of a product of our approval rates and the subsequent exception rates of the loan. We've never really decomposed it in how we analyze externally, and I don't think we have any off-the-cuff narratives around the relative sub trends there. It may be something that if it's interesting, we can sort of look at exposing over time or in the future, but I don't think that's anything that we have any great soundbites for you as of right now.

雷吉，你對轉換率的分解是正確的。它是我們的貸款批准率和隨後的貸款例外率的乘積。我們從來沒有在外部分析中真正分解它，而且我認為我們對其中相關的子趨勢沒有任何即興的敘述。如果它很有趣，我們可以考慮隨著時間的推移或將來揭露它，但我認為目前我們還沒有任何精彩的聲音片段可以提供給你。

This is Paul speaking. Just on the second part of the question about specific types of borrower characteristics that we may be waiting more or getting more of. I think the short answer is that like we've said a number of times at AI Day and other instances, the real power of our model comes from its ability to find many, many small subtle relationships in the data, and that's happening at multiple levels of the model architecture as we described with Model 22.

這是保羅在說話。關於問題的第二部分，我們可能會等待更多或獲得更多特定類型的借款人特徵。我認為簡短的回答是，就像我們在人工智慧日和其他場合多次說過的那樣，我們模型的真正力量來自於它能夠在數據中找到許多細微的關係，而這發生在模型架構的多個層面上，正如我們在模型 22 中所描述的那樣。

And the unfortunate result of that is that it's not like there is one -- well, unfortunate for answering the question is that there's not really one simple answer of like we have suddenly got more high credit score borrowers or more low-income borrowers or anything like that. It really is just picking a couple of borrowers from many different sort of parts of the credit fabric if you will, and then finding borrowers who are more likely to repay than their sort of conventional credit characteristics would suggest.

而不幸的是，這個問題並沒有一個簡單的答案，例如我們突然有了更多的高信用評分借款人或更多的低收入借款人或諸如此類的事情。這實際上只是從信用結構的許多不同部分中挑選幾個借款人，然後找到比他們的傳統信用特徵所暗示的更有可能償還的借款人。

That makes sense. Okay. And then if I could, slide 23 in the deck, you guys give this every quarter. We see, obviously, the numbers are increasing. It looks like the assessed value is greater than the co-invested value up until this point.

這很有道理。好的。如果可以的話，請看第 23 張投影片，你們每季都會給這個。我們明顯看到，數字正在增加。到目前為止，評估價值似乎大於共同投資價值。

Maybe help us understand like how should we interpret this slide? And what should we take from it? And then as far as outperformance or underperformance relative to expectations for this piece of your portfolio, where does it show up? And how do we see that flow through? Because it looks like maybe things are better than you even thought when you put these loans on the books. I'm just curious where that shows up.

也許可以幫助我們理解我們應該如何解釋這張投影片？我們該從中得到什麼呢？那麼，就您的投資組合中這部分資產的表現相對於預期而言是超出預期還是低於預期而言，它表現在哪裡？我們如何才能看到這種流動？因為當你把這些貸款記入帳簿時，情況可能比你想像的還要好。我只是好奇它出現在哪裡。

Reggie, well, as far as what to take away from this slide, I mean, it does pull together, I think all the various ways in which we are co-investing in risk capital deals. So it hopefully gives you a holistic perspective of what that investment level is at any point. I think in terms of thinking about how to model it, we're sort of in the ramping phase.

雷吉，好吧，至於從這張投影片中可以得到什麼，我的意思是，它確實匯集了我們在創投交易中共同投資的各種方式。因此，希望它能讓您全面了解任何時候的投資水平。我認為，就思考如何建模而言，我們正處於提升階段。

To the extent that these deals start paying back a couple of years into the deal, you should expect this to sort of ramp probably for a few more quarters, and then it will start to level off as the amounts we're investing in new quarters are roughly offset by the amounts coming back in from prior deals.

如果這些交易在交易幾年後開始產生回報，那麼你應該預期這種回報可能會在接下來的幾個季度內增加，然後開始趨於平穩，因為我們在新季度投資的金額大致被從之前的交易中獲得的回報金額所抵消。

And so there's sort of a ramp-up and then a sort of a platforming of this amount. And then, of course, this tells you how we're doing on those investments. I think early on, in the early sort of instances of these deals, our goal is to make sure we were preserving capital. And so you want to make sure that the way that we're valuing what these positions are is at least on par with what we invested. I think more recently, we have an intention to start earning returns on these investments.

因此，存在一種上升趨勢，然後是這種數量的平台化。當然，這會告訴你我們在這些投資方面做得如何。我認為，在早期，在這些交易的早期階段，我們的目標是確保我們能夠保留資本。因此，您要確保我們對這些職位的評估方式至少與我們的投資相當。我認為最近我們有意開始從這些投資中獲得回報。

And so you'd expect or hope that the assessed value of these positions starts to grow in relation to the invested capital. But I think the idea of this slide is to give you a picture of how this investment is trending and how the returns are looking.

因此，您會期望或希望這些部位的評估價值隨著投資資本的增加而成長。但我認為這張投影片的目的是讓您了解這項投資的趨勢以及回報情況。

In terms of how it shows up in the P&L, it's probably a much more complicated answer to your question because the reality is it hits on various line items depending on the structure of the deal, and there's a lot of different structures at play here.

就其在損益表中的顯示方式而言，您的問題的答案可能要複雜得多，因為實際情況是，它會根據交易的結構影響到各個項目，並且這裡涉及許多不同的結構。

But I think at a very high level, you can expect that the amounts that we're assessing at current value, if they were to hold, they will make their way back into the P&L largely in the form of fair value improvements or net interest income really. And so while there's a couple of different paths back into our financials, I think that's probably like if you were just to really crudely simplify it, that's how it will show up.

但我認為，從非常高的層面來看，你可以預期，我們以當前價值評估的金額，如果它們保持不變，將主要以公允價值改善或淨利息收入的形式回到損益表中。因此，儘管回到我們的財務狀況有幾種不同的途徑，但我認為這可能就像你只是粗略地簡化它一樣，它就會以這樣的方式出現。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

I wanted to just talk about really quickly, you mentioned your CAC and some benefits you're getting there. But you've also always been really CAC efficient during even lean periods and whether it be your organic or your own CRM mind leads. As you expand though, how should we be thinking about how much is purely organic traffic to upstart.com, how much is originated via direct mail and how much is sourced via third-party marketplaces? And how should we think about the evolution of those types of channels?

我想快速談談您提到的 CAC 以及您從中獲得的一些好處。但即使在淡季，您的 CAC 也始終非常高效，無論是您的有機 CRM 還是您自己的 CRM 思維引導。但是，隨著您的擴展，我們應該如何考慮 upstart.com 的流量有多少是純粹的有機流量，有多少是透過直接郵寄產生的，有多少是透過第三方市場產生的？我們應該如何看待這些類型的管道的演變？

James, this is Dave. I mean, I think the long-term trend has been more repeat borrowers, both in the core products we started with the unsecured product and increasingly cross-sold into other products. So those can be, as you might describe it, mined from our database or just people that have a relationship with us, and that's largely close to zero CAC and an increasing fraction of our loans.

詹姆斯，這是戴夫。我的意思是，我認為長期趨勢是重複借款者增多，無論是從我們開始銷售的無擔保產品的核心產品，還是越來越多地交叉銷售到其他產品。因此，正如您所描述的那樣，這些數據可以從我們的資料庫中挖掘出來，或者只是從與我們有關係的人那裡挖掘出來，而這些數據基本上接近零 CAC，並且占我們貸款的比例越來越大。

The offset will always be how fast are we growing and acquiring new borrowers. So it's not necessarily bad, of course if new borrowers are suddenly coming on board much more quickly and most of those are paid for one way or another.

抵銷因素永遠是我們成長和獲得新借款人的速度有多快。當然，如果新借款人突然以更快的速度加入，並且大多數借款人都能以某種方式償還，那麼這並不一定是壞事。

So I just think we're moving toward a place where reliance on aggregators or other forms of sort of people that represent our brand is sort of slowly declining over time. And we have much more sort of direct relationship with the consumer and more things to offer them.

所以我認為我們正在走向這樣一種境界：對聚合器或其他代表我們品牌的人的依賴會隨著時間的推移而慢慢減少。我們與消費者建立了更直接的關係，並能為他們提供更多的東西。

I would think the thing that is really of note in the last few quarters is we are beginning to really get much better at how to properly cross-sell and through lots of testing and things, somebody that might have gotten a personal loan or a small loan, and we are able to like refinance their auto loan at a lower price. That's something that works much better as a cross-sell than it does at a first-time acquisition.

我認為過去幾個季度真正值得注意的事情是，我們開始真正更好地了解如何正確地進行交叉銷售，並且通過大量的測試和其他事情，某些人可能已經獲得了個人貸款或小額貸款，我們能夠以較低的價格為他們的汽車貸款再融資。與首次收購相比，這種交叉銷售的效果要好得多。

So I think as you see the Auto and Home categories grow, you're seeing a lot of cross-selling to them. And that's just the road that we're on, which is, I think, more repeat longer-term relationships with consumers. But also, by the way, it also sort of I think we're proving the long-term value of a customer that we serve, and that allows us to invest a bit more upfront with the confidence that it's going to generate more margin downstream to cross-sell to other products or second loans, third loans, et cetera.

因此我認為，隨著汽車和家居類別的增長，您會看到大量的交叉銷售。這就是我們所走的道路，我認為，就是與消費者建立更多長期的合作關係。但順便說一句，我認為我們也證明了我們所服務的客戶的長期價值，這使我們能夠在前期投入更多，並有信心在下游產生更多利潤，以交叉銷售給其他產品或第二筆貸款、第三筆貸款等。

So I think that whole model, of course, is something we've worked on for a long time, and it's how we've been able to grow and have kind of acquisition cost per loan actually for years has kind of generally gone down.

所以我認為，整個模型是我們長期致力於研究的，這也是我們能夠發展壯大的原因，而且多年來，每筆貸款的收購成本實際上總體上有所下降。

Got it. And then I wanted to ask, you guys often give updates on what portion of the loans are being handled completely automatically. And I don't know, I may have missed that this time, but just it was interesting that you called out within some of the new products like HELOC and Auto that you're looking at taking advantage of your improved automation, basically that becoming part of your brand. And I've got to imagine that's really helpful in this cross-sell. Where are you at in terms of the automation levels now and where do you think you can get to ultimately?

知道了。然後我想問一下，你們經常更新哪些部分的貸款是完全自動處理的。我不知道，這次我可能錯過了，但有趣的是，您在一些新產品中提到，例如 HELOC 和 Auto，您正在考慮利用改進的自動化技術，基本上使其成為您品牌的一部分。我想這對交叉銷售確實很有幫助。就自動化程度而言，您現在處於什麼位置？您認為最終可以達到什麼水準？

Yeah. Thanks. Great question. So we obviously haven't broken out the exact fully automated percentages for the new products at this point. But I think it's safe to say that they're a fair bit less mature than they are in the core personal loan product.

是的。謝謝。好問題。因此，我們顯然還沒有公佈新產品的具體全自動化百分比。但我認為可以肯定地說，它們比核心個人貸款產品成熟度要低得多。

And that's not surprising. I think they're both newer products, but also they start out with more challenges. I think ultimately, we believe that those challenges can all be overcome.

這並不奇怪。我認為它們都是較新的產品，但也面臨更多的挑戰。我認為最終我們相信這些挑戰都可以克服。

And I think we shared in the preprepared remarks that we made quite a lot of progress in both Auto and the Home categories in this quarter. And in particular, we had our first instances of fully automating several new parts of the home loan process for our HELOC product.

我認為我們在事先準備好的評論中已經分享過，本季我們在汽車和家居類別上都取得了相當大的進展。特別是，我們首次實現了 HELOC 產品的房屋貸款流程中幾個新部分的完全自動化。

And there's still quite a bit more work to be done before those numbers will reach the personal loans level, but I think they are on a very good trajectory towards that. And I think in the long run, that would be our expectation.

在這些數字達到個人貸款水平之前，還有很多工作要做，但我認為他們正朝著這個方向邁進。我認為從長遠來看，這正是我們的期望。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

On the fair value adjustment in the quarter, I noticed that was higher or more than a negative than it's been in the past. Can you speak to the drivers there? And then I think along the same line, the aggregate NII guide is down for the rest of the year despite the increase in balance sheet loans. So how you're thinking about fair value marks for the rest of the year?

關於本季的公允價值調整，我注意到它比過去更高或更負值。你能和那裡的司機說話嗎？然後我認為，沿著同樣的思路，儘管資產負債表貸款有所增加，但今年剩餘時間的總體 NII 指南仍將下降。那麼您如何看待今年剩餘時間的公允價值分數？

Yeah, I mean fair value has some volatility to it. I would say the rep contour is UMI, our macro index sort of fell by a lot in the second half of 2024. So we took some of those gains as fair value marks as it persisted into the year. So in Q1 and partially in Q2, you saw some of the benefits of that declining UI. Now UMI has drifted up a little bit in the first quarter or two of this year.

是的，我的意思是公允價值有一定的波動性。我想說的是，代表輪廓是 UMI，我們的宏觀指數在 2024 年下半年大幅下降。因此，我們將其中一部分收益視為公允價值，因為這種收益持續到了今年。因此，在第一季和第二季的部分時間裡，您看到了 UI 下降帶來的一些好處。現在UMI在今年第一季或第二季有所上升。

So that's starting to reflect itself in Q3. In Q4, I think you're starting to see some of the benefits of the risk capital deals, some of the earlier vintages of risk capital deals that are starting to repay. So there's sort of some benefit happening there. And you sort of have a bit of a dead period in Q3 where the UMI has drifted up. So there's a bit of pressure there. The risk capital deals are not quite yet starting to materialize as benefit.

這在第三季開始體現。在第四季度，我認為你會開始看到創投交易的一些好處，一些早期的創投交易開始獲得回報。因此這其中確實存在一些好處。在第三季度，你會遇到一段停滯期，UMI 會有所上升。所以那裡有一點壓力。風險資本交易尚未開始實現效益。

And then you have this sort of phenomena that depending on the seasoning of your loan book, if I could describe the fair value of one loan in isolation, it would be really high at the beginning of the loan because there's really -- there's a lot of interest and no charge-offs.

然後你會看到這種現象，根據你的貸款帳簿的狀況，如果我可以單獨描述一筆貸款的公允價值，那麼它在貸款開始時會非常高，因為真的有很多利息，而且沒有沖銷。

And then at some point around month 12, you hit the peak charge-offs. So the fair value of that loan at that time tends to drop. And then at the end of the loan, the charge-offs, the curve has sort of run off and you get pure interest again and it's high again.

然後在第 12 個月左右的某個時候，您會達到沖銷的高峰。因此當時該貸款的公允價值趨於下降。然後在貸款結束時，沖銷，曲線已經流失，你再次得到純利息，它再次很高。

So you have this sort of natural phasing of the value of a loan where it sort of goes from high to low to high. And when you project that over an entire portfolio, you can sometimes get these effects where the value, even though it sort of averages out to zero over time, has a bit of seasoning volatility if you will.

因此，貸款價值會自然地從高到低再到高。當你將其投射到整個投資組合時，有時你會得到這樣的效果：即使價值隨著時間的推移平均為零，但如果願意的話，它還是會有一定的波動性。

And some of that is playing in Q3 as well. So I know that's like -- that's a large recipe of a lot of ingredients. But the reality is fair value is quite a complex sort of topic. But I think those are the main things that are impacting the trends over the quarters.

其中一些也將在第三季上演。所以我知道這就像——這是一個包含很多成分的大食譜。但事實上，公允價值是一個相當複雜的議題。但我認為這些是影響季度趨勢的主要因素。

Okay. And then bigger picture, competitively, it seems like all the personal loan origination -- or excuse me, originators are growing very quickly lately, even someone like SoFi is loud and clear that they're drifting into near prime with their loan platform, which is kind of your space. You grew quite a bit in core loans, too. I'm wondering how you guys think about adverse selection in a competitive environment like this one.

好的。然後從更大的角度來看，從競爭的角度來看，似乎所有的個人貸款發放——或者對不起，發放者最近都在快速增長，甚至像 SoFi 這樣的公司也明確表示，他們的貸款平台正逐漸接近黃金水平，這有點像你的空間。你們的核心貸款也增加了不少。我想知道你們如何看待像這樣的競爭環境中的逆向選擇。

We certainly think about it. I would say, first of all, it's one of the reasons we really focus on making sure our cost of capital is competitive across the spectrum or anywhere we want to participate or else you are at risk of adverse selection. So at the conceptual level, we just have to make sure that the fuel, the dollars funding the loans are as good or close to as good as anywhere, and then you have much less concern about that.

我們當然會考慮這一點。我想說，首先，這是我們真正注重確保我們的資本成本在我們想要參與的範圍內或任何地方都具有競爭力的原因之一，否則您將面臨逆向選擇的風險。因此，從概念層面來說，我們只需要確保燃料、貸款資金的品質與其他地方一樣好或接近一樣好，然後你就不用太擔心了。

Also, I mean, the nature of our models that have gotten sophisticated enough to handle issues of like how does the price of the loan affect the performance of the loan. If you recall back last fall, we introduced what we call APR as a feature, which was quite an innovation on our side, which helps us make sure the price of the loan is considered when you're measuring the risk in the loan.

另外，我的意思是，我們的模型的性質已經足夠複雜，可以處理諸如貸款價格如何影響貸款表現之類的問題。如果你還記得去年秋天，我們推出了所謂的 APR 功能，這對我們來說是一項相當大的創新，它可以幫助我們確保在衡量貸款風險時考慮貸款價格。

And that was a giant leap forward back in Model 18. So we kind of feel from a technical perspective and also from a business perspective, we are both aware of and responding to potential for adverse selection. So a very competitive market is not new to us and something we feel pretty good about.

這對 Model 18 來說是個巨大的飛躍。因此，我們認為從技術角度和商業角度來看，我們都意識到並應對逆向選擇的可能性。因此，競爭激烈的市場對我們來說並不新鮮，而且我們對此感到非常高興。

Sorry if I could just sneak one more in on that, Dave. How do you compete with deposit funding from somebody like SoFi or LendingClub in terms of cost of capital?

抱歉，我可以再偷偷說一點，戴夫。在資本成本方面，您如何與 SoFi 或 LendingClub 等公司的存款融資競爭？

Well, about, I would say, 25%-ish of our loans are funded by deposits. So it's just that they're not our deposits, they're from credit unions or bank partners. So that's an important way. And that's, of course, for the primest of our loans. So that's deposits compared to deposit. We're just doing it in a distributed manner as opposed to it being Upstart Bank or something.

嗯，我想說，我們的貸款大約有 25% 是由存款提供的。所以它們不是我們的存款，而是來自信用合作社或銀行夥伴。所以這是一個重要的方法。當然，這是我們最優質的貸款。這就是存款與存款的比較。我們只是以分散式的方式進行操作，而不是像 Upstart Bank 那樣。

The other thing I think is important, which is happening quickly is I think non-depository capital is getting more competitive at the primary end of the spectrum just because there are sources of funding that have all sorts of different blends of risk and reward appetite.

我認為另一件重要的事情是，而且正在迅速發生，那就是非存款資本在主要領域的競爭力正在增強，因為資金來源具有各種不同的風險和回報偏好。

And through the worlds of private credit, insurance, et cetera, there is non-depository capital that may not be exactly as inexpensive as depository capital, but getting closer and closer. So I think that difference, which historically was quite large, is actually beginning to blend much more these days.

在私人信貸、保險等領域，非存款資本可能不像存款資本那麼便宜，但越來越接近。所以我認為，從歷史上看，這種差異非常大，但如今，這種差異實際上開始變得更加融合。

Kyle Joseph, Stephens.

凱爾·約瑟夫，史蒂芬斯。

A lot of them have been addressed, but just thinking about the product mix, obviously, you guys talked about the benefits of AI to the personal loans. And then obviously, you're seeing good growth in Home and Auto, but factoring in the law of large numbers, just kind of how you see the mix going forward and any implications in terms of margins and/or customer acquisition costs?

其中許多問題已經解決，但僅僅考慮產品組合，顯然你們談到了人工智慧對個人貸款的好處。顯然，您看到家居和汽車領域出現了良好的成長，但考慮到大數定律，您如何看待未來的組合以及對利潤率和/或客戶獲取成本的影響？

Well, let me just speak to the mix to the extent we can, and maybe Sanjay can comment on what it might mean for margins. Look, we, of course, feel like there is enormous growth potential in all our product areas, including in our core personal loan product where we have very, very well-established margins and automation, et cetera.

好吧，讓我盡可能地談論這種混合，也許桑傑可以評論一下它對利潤意味著什麼。當然，我們覺得我們所有的產品領域都有巨大的成長潛力，包括我們的核心個人貸款產品，我們在該領域擁有非常完善的利潤率和自動化程度等等。

And then these newer categories are generally much larger categories, but we're much earlier into penetrating them. So we think we have a very attractive, like very large addressable market. We're very early into it.

這些較新的類別通常是更大的類別，但我們很早就開始滲透它們。因此我們認為我們擁有一個非常有吸引力、非常大的潛在市場。我們還處於早期階段。

And almost inevitably over time, I think the secured products, meaning Home and Auto are going to grow as a fraction. And could they become much larger than unsecured over time, it's quite possible. I don't know that we know that. I think unsecured as a category even though it's smaller, is growing, it's quite popular with consumers.

隨著時間的推移，我認為安全產品（即家居和汽車產品）幾乎不可避免地會有所增長。隨著時間的推移，它們的規模是否會變得比無擔保的更大，這是很有可能的。我不知道我們是否知道這一點。我認為無擔保貸款雖然規模較小，但正在成長，並且很受消費者歡迎。

So I guess that's a long-winded way of saying, look, we're in like single-digit market share in unsecured, which we have enormous advantages and strengths and just at the cusp of really beginning to move in Home and Auto. So the potential for very, very rapid growth over a long period of time in all those categories is pretty significant.

所以我想這是一種冗長的說法，看，我們在無擔保貸款市場的份額只有個位數，但我們擁有巨大的優勢和實力，並且即將在家庭和汽車領域真正開始行動。因此，所有這些類別在長期內實現非常非常快速成長的潛力相當大。

Yeah, I would just add with respect to margins. I mean, the margin profile of these new businesses is still materializing to some extent. But all these markets have the same rough shape as the core market we exist in today, which is the unsecured market. And that's that -- there are some segment of very well-served borrowers where prices are competitive and margins are thin and you largely compete on process and distribution.

是的，我只想補充一下利潤方面的內容。我的意思是，這些新業務的利潤率狀況在某種程度上仍在實現。但所有這些市場都與我們今天所處的核心市場，即無擔保市場，有著大致相同的形態。就是這樣——有一些服務非常好的借款人，他們的價格很有競爭力，利潤很薄，而且主要在流程和分銷上競爭。

And then you always have a part of the market which does not have access or is underserved, and there's a lot of opportunity to create volume and margin. And I think that's no different in the auto space or even in the HELOC space, frankly.

然後，你總會發現市場上有一部分人無法進入或服務不足，並且有很多機會來創造銷售和利潤。坦白說，我認為汽車領域甚至 HELOC 領域也沒有什麼不同。

I think these loans that are secured will have larger loan sizes, maybe smaller percentage take rates and just a similar dollar revenue and/or profit per loan that we have in our unsecured business. But we don't know the exact precision of that yet. That's still materializing as these categories are growing for us.

我認為這些有擔保的貸款規模會更大，利率可能會更低，而每筆貸款的美元收入和/或利潤與我們無擔保業務的類似。但我們還不知道其確切的精度。隨著這些類別的不斷增長，這一目標仍在實現。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰·赫克特。

Like Kyle, most of my questions have been asked. I guess I'm curious as to kind of your sense of what interest rate reductions would do. I assume the Auto refi business would pick up, and the HELOC business, I imagine as well. But in the core products, do you pass on rate changes to the customers? Do some of your partnership agreements with the private credit, do those contemplate changes in interest rates? Just to kind of get a sense if we go into your rate cycle, what to think.

像凱爾一樣，我的大部分問題都已經被問過了。我想我很好奇您對降低利率會產生什麼影響的看法。我認為汽車再融資業務將會回暖，我想 HELOC 業務也是如此。但是在核心產品中，您是否將費率變更轉嫁給客戶？您與私人信貸機構簽訂的一些合作協議是否考慮了利率的變化？只是想了解一下，如果我們進入你的利率週期，你會怎麼想。

John, yeah, a reduction in rates would telegraph itself into our core business virtually one for one, not immediately with some lag. But if rates in the economy go down, that means financing rates go down, and that means the sort of ROA of your unlevered loan can go down commensurately.

約翰，是的，利率降低會直接影響我們的核心業務，而不是立即產生滯後效應。但如果經濟利率下降，就意味著融資利率下降，也意味著無槓桿貸款的 ROA 會隨之下降。

And so it would result in lower rates to our borrowers and conversion improvement. And yeah, the sort of the types of structures we have in place with our committed partners contemplate this and would sort of act in this fashion. So it would be unambiguously good if rates were being reduced, at least in a direct sense because it would mean that rates for borrowers over time would sort of reduce commensurately.

因此，這將降低我們的借款人的利率並提高轉換率。是的，我們與忠誠的合作夥伴建立的結構類型考慮到了這一點，並且會以這種方式採取行動。因此，如果利率降低，無疑是件好事，至少從直接意義上來說是這樣，因為這意味著借款人的利率隨著時間的推移會相應降低。

It appears that there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the conference back to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

目前似乎沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給 Dave Girouard，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

All right. Thanks, everybody, for joining. Q2 was a great quarter for Upstart, no doubt. For those of us in the inside who saw kind of the radical makeover we've been going through in the last couple of years, it wasn't a surprise, but it was very rewarding. So thanks again. We're very excited for what we'll do the rest of this year, and we'll see you all in November. Thanks.

好的。謝謝大家的參與。毫無疑問，第二季對 Upstart 來說是一個很棒的季度。對於我們這些親眼目睹過去幾年所經歷的徹底變革的人來說，這並不令人驚訝，但卻非常有價值。再次感謝。我們對今年剩餘時間要做的事情感到非常興奮，我們將在十一月與大家見面。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。