Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to the Upstart first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to Sonya Banerjee, Head of Investor Relations. Sonya, please go ahead.

現在，我將會議交給投資者關係主管 Sonya Banerjee。索尼婭，請繼續。

Thank you. Welcome to the Upstart earnings call for the first quarter of 2025. With me on today's call are Dave Girouard, our Co-Founder and CEO; and Sanjay Datta, our CFO.

謝謝。歡迎參加 Upstart 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的共同創辦人兼執行長 Dave Girouard；以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which include statements about our outlook and business strategy. These statements are based on our expectations and beliefs as of today, which are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future performance.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中包括有關我們的前景和業務策略的陳述。這些聲明是基於我們今天的期望和信念，受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響，不應被視為對未來表現的保證。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events except as required by law. Our discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for our GAAP results. Reconciliations of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in our earnings materials which are available on our IR website.

由於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。我們的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標不能取代我們的 GAAP 結果。我們的歷史 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的對帳可以在我們的 IR 網站上的收益資料中找到。

And with that, Dave, over to you.

好了，戴夫，交給你了。

Thanks, Sonya. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The first quarter was a strong one for Upstart, despite being our seasonally slowest time of the year. Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with model wins and improved borrower health combining with more competitive capital to drive meaningfully higher conversion rates.

謝謝，索尼婭。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。儘管第一季是 Upstart 全年業績最慢的時期，但其表現依然強勁。平台發起量年增 89%，模式成功、借款人健康狀況改善，加上更具競爭力的資本，推動轉換率顯著提高。

Our revenue grew 67% year-on-year and our adjusted EBITDA reached 20% for the first time in three years. With fees generating 87% of our revenue, we were also right on the doorstep of GAAP profitability in Q1. Just as importantly, home and auto continues their torrid growth pace, with the originations growing 52% and 42%, respectively, on a sequential basis.

我們的營收年增67%，調整後EBITDA三年來首次達到20%。由於費用占我們收入的 87%，我們在第一季也即將實現 GAAP 獲利。同樣重要的是，住宅和汽車領域持續保持強勁成長勢頭，較上季成長分別達到 52% 和 42%。

From our perspective, consumer financial health as represented by the Upstart Macro Index has been largely improving for almost a year now. Currently, it remains elevated, but stable. Our credit continues to perform well. And while we're vigilant with respect to any disruptions that recent government trade policy might cause, we're also confident that our ability to adapt to changing macroeconomic conditions is miles better than it was just a couple of years ago. In the time of trade disruption, we're also happy that Upstart is a 100% US business that's 100% digital.

從我們的角度來看，以新貴宏觀指數為代表的消費者財務健康狀況近一年來一直在大幅改善。目前，它仍然處於高位，但保持穩定。我們的信用繼續表現良好。雖然我們對最近的政府貿易政策可能造成的任何干擾保持警惕，但我們也相信，我們適應不斷變化的宏觀經濟條件的能力比幾年前要好得多。在貿易中斷時期，我們也很高興 Upstart 是一家 100% 美國企業，100% 數位化。

Now, I'll take you through some of the progress we made in each of our product areas in Q1. With our core personal loan product, originations were flat sequentially and up 83% year-over-year. We continue to make rapid improvements to our models that facilitate underwriting and automated approvals. Additionally, we continue to strengthen and diversify the capital supply that is the fuel of our business. These improvements have contributed to increasing our conversion rates from 14% a year ago to 19% in Q1.

現在，我將向您介紹我們在第一季在各個產品領域取得的一些進展。我們的核心個人貸款產品發放量較去年同期持平，年增 83%。我們將繼續快速改進我們的模型，以促進承保和自動批准。此外，我們繼續加強和多樣化作為我們業務動力的資本供應。這些改進使我們的轉換率從一年前的 14% 提高到第一季的 19%。

We also reached an all-time high of 92% of loans fully automated, meaning the entire process from rate request to loan closing is entirely driven by AI-powered software with no human intervention by Upstart. All else being equal, we believe a faster automated process selects for better borrowers.

我們還達到了 92% 的貸款完全自動化的歷史最高水平，這意味著從利率請求到貸款結算的整個過程完全由人工智慧軟體驅動，無需 Upstart 進行人工幹預。在其他條件相同的情況下，我們相信更快的自動化流程可以選出更好的借款人。

Additionally, our best rates, best process for all mantra has really begun to pay dividends. In Q1, 32% of our originations were to super prime borrowers, which we as well as the CFPB defined as borrowers with credit scores higher than 720. We measure progress against best rates not just by portfolio mix, but also by win rate versus competitors across the entire spectrum. In this vein, we have also made extraordinary strides in recent months. I'm excited to share more about this with you, which I expect to do at our AI Day event next week.

此外，我們為所有人提供最優惠的價格和最佳的流程的口號確實開始帶來回報。在第一季度，我們 32% 的貸款發放對像是超級優質借款人，我們和消費者金融保護局 (CFPB) 都將超級優質借款人定義為信用評分高於 720 的借款人。我們不僅透過投資組合來衡量相對於最佳利率的進展，還透過相對於整個範圍內的競爭對手的勝率來衡量進展。在這方面，我們近幾個月來也取得了非凡的進步。我很高興與大家分享更多這方面的訊息，我希望在下週的 AI Day 活動上分享。

We continue to stack up model wins, putting more distance between Upstart AI and the rest of the industry. Since last we spoke, we introduced embeddings to our core personal loan underwriting model. Embeddings are a machine learning technique that convert complex unstructured data into useful model inputs or features in ML speak. This is done by a clustering data that have meaningful relationships, allowing seemingly random data to become valuable to predicting credit performance.

我們繼續累積模型勝利，使 Upstart AI 與業內其他公司之間的距離進一步拉大。自上次談話以來，我們將嵌入引入了我們的核心個人貸款承保模型中。嵌入是一種機器學習技術，它將複雜的非結構化資料轉換為有用的模型輸入或 ML 術語中的特徵。這是透過具有有意義關係的聚類資料來實現的，從而使看似隨機的資料對預測信用表現有價值。

For example, two consumers may have different credit cards, say, an Amex and Chase Sapphire card. With embeddings, our model can learn that these cards might reflect similar consumer behaviors. What makes this approach so powerful is that embedding help us uncover subtle patterns that would be difficult or even impossible to identify otherwise. This leads to better model generalization, improved accuracy and more informed credit decisions.

例如，兩個消費者可能擁有不同的信用卡，例如美國運通卡和大通藍寶石卡。透過嵌入，我們的模型可以了解這些卡片可能反映類似的消費者行為。這種方法如此強大的原因在於，嵌入可以幫助我們發現難以甚至不可能識別的細微模式。這將帶來更好的模型泛化、更高的準確性和更明智的信用決策。

While embeddings are widely used in other domains like natural language processing, applying them to credit underwriting is entirely novel. We're excited about what embeddings can do to drive our risk separation metrics forward and we're equally excited about the pipeline of modeling innovations in front of us in 2025.

雖然嵌入在自然語言處理等其他領域被廣泛使用，但將其應用於信用承保卻是全新的。我們對嵌入能夠推動風險分離指標向前發展感到興奮，同樣對 2025 年擺在我們面前的建模創新管道感到興奮。

Last quarter, I told you that our auto business finished 2024 by growing originations about 60% sequentially. While in the first quarter of 2025, originations grew another 42% sequentially despite Q1 being the seasonally softest time of the year. And Upstart auto lending grew almost 5x compared to a year ago.

上個季度，我告訴大家，到 2024 年，我們的汽車業務的銷量將比去年同期成長約 60%。而在 2025 年第一季度，儘管第一季是一年中季節性最疲軟的時期，但發起量仍較上季成長了 42%。與一年前相比，Upstart 汽車貸款成長了近 5 倍。

These increases were driven principally by model updates and pricing improvements. At the same time, our continued focus on cross-selling existing customers, reduced acquisition costs for our auto refinance product by 57% quarter-over-quarter. This mega improvement in CAC was driven as usual by improved conversion rate, which more than doubled sequentially in Q1.

這些成長主要得益於模型更新和價格改進。同時，我們繼續專注於對現有客戶的交叉銷售，使我們的汽車再融資產品的收購成本環比降低了 57%。與往常一樣，CAC 的大幅提升是由轉換率的提高所推動的，轉換率在第一季環比增長了一倍多。

In Q1, we also saw our first instant approval of an auto refinance loan where the borrower completed the entire process in a single session of just nine minutes. As far as we know, this could be the first instantly approved auto refinance loan in the world. This is a modest beginning but sets us down the path of automation that has been so central to our success in personal loans.

在第一季度，我們還首次實現了汽車再融資貸款的即時批准，借款人僅用 9 分鐘就完成了整個流程。據我們所知，這可能是世界上第一筆即時批准的汽車再融資貸款。這是一個不起眼的開始，但卻使我們走上了自動化的道路，而自動化對於我們在個人貸款方面的成功至關重要。

In the home lending category, we're thrilled with how quickly our HELOC product is maturing. In December, we ported our personal loan models for instantly verifying income and identity to our HELOC product. This increased instant income and identity verification from less than half of those in Q4 and to nearly two thirds of HELOCs this past quarter. This is an experience borrowers love, instantly approved applications converted more than twice the rate of those requiring manual intervention.

在房屋貸款類別中，我們對 HELOC 產品的快速成熟感到非常興奮。12 月，我們將用於即時驗證收入和身分的個人貸款模式移植到我們的 HELOC 產品中。這使得即時收入和身份驗證從第四季度的不到一半增加到上個季度的 HELOC 的近三分之二。這是藉款人喜歡的體驗，立即批准的申請轉換率是需要人工幹預的申請的兩倍多。

It's also a strong demonstration of how our core technology can be generalized across credit categories. In Q1, we also finally launched the Upstart HELOC in California, bringing our footprint to 37 states plus Washington, DC, now covering almost 75% of the US population.

這也有力地證明了我們的核心技術如何推廣到各個信貸類別。在第一季度，我們也最終在加州推出了 Upstart HELOC，使我們的業務範圍擴大到 37 個州和華盛頓特區，目前涵蓋了近 75% 的美國人口。

As I mentioned earlier, in Q1, our HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x compared to a year ago. We now have agreements signed with three lending partners for our HELOC product and have begun the process of moving funding off of our balance sheet. We expect this will take considerable time as we bring both depository and institutional capital to this category.

正如我之前提到的，在第一季度，我們的 HELOC 發放量較上季成長了 52%，與去年同期相比成長了 6 倍多。目前，我們已經與三家貸款合作夥伴簽署了有關 HELOC 產品的協議，並已開始將資金從我們的資產負債表中轉移出去。我們預計這將需要相當長的時間，因為我們將把存款和機構資本都納入這個類別。

Our small dollar product continues to perform well with originations growing 7% sequentially and almost tripling year-on-year. Our STL continues to be a critical customer acquisition tool, accounting for nearly 16% of new borrowers on Upstart in Q1.

我們的小額美元產品持續表現良好，發行量較上季成長 7%，較去年同期成長近三倍。我們的 STL 繼續成為重要的客戶獲取工具，佔 Upstart 第一季新借款人的近 16%。

As I previewed back in February, in Q1, we moved to a single underwriting model for both of our unsecured products. This means the small dollar product is benefiting straight away from machine learning innovations such as embeddings that I described earlier.

正如我在今年二月預測的那樣，在第一季度，我們將兩種無擔保產品轉向單一承保模式。這意味著小額產品將直接受益於我之前描述的嵌入等機器學習創新。

In Q1, we continue to work to modernize and scale our servicing operations. We're rapidly automating routine tasks like processing payment failures and cheque handling so we can spend human time on more valuable tasks. In Q1, we automated 90% of hardship applications, making the process more seamless for borrowers and more efficient for Upstart.

在第一季度，我們將繼續致力於實現服務業務的現代化和規模化。我們正在快速實現處理付款失敗和支票處理等日常任務的自動化，以便我們可以將人力投入更有價值的任務。在第一季度，我們實現了 90% 的困難申請的自動化，使借款人的流程更加無縫，也使 Upstart 更有效率。

Beyond the technology, the work we've done to prioritize direct collections efforts for borrowers at risk of default have continued to have a meaningful impact. For example, in Q1, we realized a 50% increase in debt settlement acceptances by extending repayment terms for at-risk borrowers. In our auto business, we doubled our recovery rates year-over-year in Q1.

除了科技之外，我們為優先考慮有違約風險的借款人直接催收債務所做的工作也持續產生了有意義的影響。例如，在第一季度，我們透過延長高風險借款人的還款期限，實現了債務清償接受率增加 50%。在我們的汽車業務中，第一季的回收率比去年同期翻了一番。

We've been improving our data collection and structuring and servicing for quite some time now and expect to launch our first machine learning model in this area very soon. We're excited about the potential for ML in loan servicing to increase efficiency and reduce loss rates. This is the necessary step towards launching our servicing and collections as a highly differentiated standalone offering in the market, which we hope to do in the future.

我們已經改進了我們的資料收集、結構和服務很長一段時間了，並希望很快推出我們在這個領域的第一個機器學習模型。我們對機器學習在貸款服務中提高效率和降低損失率的潛力感到非常興奮。這是將我們的服務和收藏品作為高度差異化的獨立產品推向市場所需的一步，我們希望在未來能夠做到這一點。

I'd like to quickly touch on Upstart's 2025 priorities that I mentioned to you in February. We're making great strides against this list, and I'm grateful for the many [Upstarters] who are putting their all into making this an incredible year for Upstart.

我想快速談談我在二月向您提到的 Upstart 的 2025 年優先事項。我們正在朝著這個名單大步邁進，我感謝許多 [Upstarters] 全力以赴，讓今年成為 Upstart 不可思議的一年。

First, 10x our leadership in AI. Already this year, we've made great leaps forward both in process and substance that reinforce that when it comes to AI lending, Upstart is the category of one. Embeddings are a real breakthrough for our AI foundation model, and I'm convinced it will pay dividends across all of our products over time. Our pipeline of modeling wins is beyond robust, so I couldn't be happier about our progress here.

首先，我們在人工智慧領域的領導地位將提升 10 倍。今年，我們在流程和實質上都取得了巨大的飛躍，這進一步證明，在人工智慧借貸領域，Upstart 是獨一無二的。嵌入對於我們的 AI 基礎模型來說是一個真正的突破，我相信隨著時間的推移它將為我們所有的產品帶來回報。我們的建模勝利管道非常強大，因此我對於我們在這裡取得的進展感到非常高興。

Second, prepare our funding for supply for rapid growth. We continue to have well over 50% of loan funding in committed partnership agreements. In early April, we signed our first committed capital arrangement with Fortress who is an industry leader in private credit. Looking forward, we expect to add our newer products to these partnerships, which will greatly expand on the value and efficiency they bring to Upstart. Additionally, we added 15 new lending partners to our Super Prime offering, growing capital 38% quarter-to-quarter for that market segment.

第二，做好快速成長的資金供給。我們繼續在承諾的合作協議中擁有超過 50% 的貸款資金。4月初，我們與私人信貸產業領導者Fortress簽署了第一份承諾資本協議。展望未來，我們期望將我們的新產品添加到這些合作夥伴關係中，這將大大擴展它們為 Upstart 帶來的價值和效率。此外，我們在超級優質貸款產品中增加了 15 個新的貸款合作夥伴，該細分市場的資本環比增長了 38%。

Third, return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year. We're on track for this right now and excited to demonstrate the leverage in our business as both our core and newer products expand rapidly through the year.

第三，下半年恢復GAAP淨收入獲利。目前，我們正朝著這個目標前進，並且很高興能夠展示我們業務的優勢，因為我們的核心產品和新產品都將在今年迅速擴張。

And last but not least, giant leaps to our best rates, best process for all. Earlier this year, I challenged each of our product GMs to have the best rates against major market competitors for each borrower segment they serve by the end of 2025. Specifically, this means that our win rate should be higher than any of the digital competitor in each of our products. This, of course, comes with the prerequisite of on target or better credit performance as well as solid unit economics. I'm pleased to share that we're running well ahead of this target, particularly in our core personal loan product, you will hear more about this next week at AI Day.

最後但同樣重要的是，我們向所有人實現了最佳價格和最佳流程的巨大飛躍。今年早些時候，我向我們的每位產品總經理提出挑戰，要求他們在 2025 年底之前，為他們服務的每個借款人群體提供比主要市場競爭對手更優惠的利率。具體來說，這意味著我們的成功率應該高於我們每種產品中的任何數位競爭對手。當然，這需要達到目標或更好的信用表現以及穩健的單位經濟效益作為前提。我很高興地告訴大家，我們已經遠遠領先於這個目標，特別是在我們的核心個人貸款產品方面，您將在下週的人工智慧日上聽到更多有關這方面的資訊。

To wrap up my remarks today, I think much of the world has come down with the case of AI fatigue. There's just so much discussion and so many predictions about what AI will do or what it might do to the world, to our lives and to our children's lives. I admit, I roll my eyes at some of the debates and the discussions as well. But in Upstart's case, AI and its unique capabilities are unquestionably aligned with a better future for all when it comes to financial wellness. Improvements to our risk models and expansion of our product line mean we are reducing the price of credit for the world more and more each day.

總結我今天的發言，我認為世界上很多地方都已經陷入了人工智慧疲勞。關於人工智慧將會做什麼，或者它可能對世界、對我們的生活以及我們孩子的生活產生什麼影響，存在著許多討論和預測。我承認，我對一些辯論和討論也翻了白眼。但就 Upstart 而言，人工智慧及其獨特的能力毫無疑問地與所有人的財務健康更美好的未來相一致。我們風險模型的改進和產品線的擴展意味著我們每天都在不斷降低全球信貸價格。

If you're still unclear about the incredible opportunity for AI-enabled lending and Upstart's leadership in this vital category, I hope you'll join us next week for AI Day. I promise you won't be disappointed.

如果您仍然不清楚人工智慧借貸的巨大機會以及 Upstart 在這一重要類別中的領導地位，我希望您能參加下週的人工智慧日活動。我保證你不會失望的。

Thank you. And I'd now like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q1 2025 financial results and guidance.

謝謝。現在，我想將時間交給我們的財務長桑傑 (Sanjay)，來介紹一下我們 2025 年第一季的財務表現和指引。

Sanjay?

桑傑？

Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of our participants for sharing some of your time with us today. Financially, the first quarter of 2025 came in slightly ahead of expectations with outperformance on the top and bottom line, owing primarily to higher-than-anticipated net interest income. The impact of the typically soft tax seasonality in Q1 played out largely as expected and despite recent turbulence in the financial markets, the effects of the macro environment on credit performance, as in our estimation, remained relatively stable throughout the quarter and roughly consistent with our prior assumptions.

謝謝，戴夫，也感謝所有參與者今天抽出時間與我們分享。從財務角度來看，2025 年第一季的業績略高於預期，營收和利潤均表現出色，主要歸功於高於預期的淨利息收入。第一季通常較為溫和的稅收季節性的影響基本上符合預期，儘管近期金融市場出現動盪，但根據我們的估計，宏觀環境對信貸表現的影響在整個季度保持相對穩定，與我們先前的假設大致一致。

Total revenue for Q1 came in at approximately $213 million, up 67% year-on-year. This overall number included revenue from fees of $185 million, which was up 34% year-over-year. This amount was in line with guidance. Although from a mix perspective, we outperformed our expectations in super prime borrower segment, resulting in higher overall origination volumes than anticipated at lower take rates.

第一季總營收約 2.13 億美元，年增 67%。這一總體數字包括 1.85 億美元的費用收入，年增 34%。這筆金額符合預期。儘管從組合角度來看，我們在超級優質借款人領域的表現超出了預期，導致整體發放量在較低的利率下高於預期。

Additionally, net interest income represented roughly $28 million of overall revenue, exceeding our outlook by $13 million. Approximately half of this amount came in the form of higher net interest spreads from our balance sheet as we pass peak charge-offs from older vintages and half came in the form of unrealized fair value gains as the recently declining UMI trend worked its way into our various fair value marks.

此外，淨利息收入約佔總收入的 2,800 萬美元，超出我們的預期 1,300 萬美元。其中約有一半以資產負債表中更高的淨利差形式出現，因為我們已度過了舊年份的沖銷高峰期，而另一半以未實現的公允價值收益形式出現，因為最近下降的 UMI 趨勢已影響到我們的各種公允價值標記。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year but down 2% sequentially and representing 163,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of approximately $8,865 nudged up from $8,580 in the prior quarter as the proportion of loans made to super prime borrowers increased.

我們平台的貸款交易量約為 241,000 筆，比上年增長 102%，但比上一季下降 2%，新增借款人 163,000 人。由於向超級優質借款人發放的貸款比例增加，平均貸款額約為 8,865 美元，較上一季的 8,580 美元略有上升。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing, as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 55% in Q1, down 6 percentage points from the prior quarter and 2 points below guidance, largely due to the lower take rates realized in the primer borrower segments where we exceeded expectations.

我們的貢獻利潤率（非 GAAP 指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的變動成本佔費用收入的百分比）在第一季度達到 55%，比上一季度下降 6 個百分點，比指導值低 2 個百分點，這主要是由於我們在主要藉款人細分市場中實現了較低的接受率，而這些市場超出了我們的預期細分市場中實現了較低的接受度。

GAAP operating expenses were roughly $218 million in Q1, down 3% sequentially from Q4. Expenses that are considered variable relating to borrower acquisition, verification and servicing were up 7% sequentially relative to a 2% decline in transaction volume, which is reflective of the lower contribution margins previously referenced. Fixed expenses were down 8% quarter-over-quarter as some of the temporary catch-up accruals from Q4 rolled off in the new year.

第一季 GAAP 營運費用約 2.18 億美元，季減 3%。與借款人獲取、驗證和服務相關的可變費用環比增長 7%，而交易量則下降了 2%，這反映了先前提到的較低的貢獻利潤率。由於第四季的部分臨時補繳費用在新年期間結轉，固定支出較上季下降 8%。

Taken together, Q1 GAAP net loss was $2 million, well ahead of expectation and reflecting the outperformance on net interest income against our tightly managed fixed cost base. Adjusted EBITDA was $43 million, also scaling nicely in accordance with our operating leverage. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.30 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $104 million.

總體而言，第一季 GAAP 淨虧損為 200 萬美元，遠遠超出預期，反映了淨利息收入相對於我們嚴格管理的固定成本基礎的優異表現。調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,300 萬美元，也根據我們的經營槓桿實現了良好的成長。根據稀釋加權平均股數 1.04 億美元計算，調整後每股收益為 0.30 美元。

We ended Q1 with $726 million of loans held directly on the balance sheet, which is down 21% from the prior year, but up sequentially from $703 million in Q4, as our newer R&D products continue to scale. Additionally, we recognized $89 million in loans from the consolidation of a securitization deal in which we retain minimal economic exposure.

截至第一季度，我們資產負債表上直接持有的貸款為 7.26 億美元，較上年下降 21%，但由於我們較新的研發產品不斷擴大，與第四季度的 7.03 億美元相比有所上升。此外，我們還透過證券化交易合併獲得了 8,900 萬美元的貸款，在該交易中我們保留了最低限度的經濟風險。

We ended Q1 with unrestricted cash of approximately $600 million, down from $788 million in the prior quarter, with the delta primarily going towards R&D loan funding for new products, third-party risk capital partnerships and a reduction in working capital from beginning of year corporate bonus payouts. In Q1, we put in place a universal shelf and a $500 million at-the-market program which gives us additional balance sheet flexibility.

我們在第一季結束時擁有約 6 億美元的非限制性現金，低於上一季的 7.88 億美元，增幅主要用於新產品的研發貸款融資、第三方風險資本合作夥伴關係以及年初公司獎金支付導致的營運資金減少。在第一季度，我們實施了通用貨架和 5 億美元的市場計劃，這為我們的資產負債表提供了額外的靈活性。

We remain extremely pleased with our network of third-party capital relationships and are excited to welcome the Fortress Investment Group as a new committed capital provider on our platform. Overall, these relationships now comprise well north of 50% of the funding on our platform, and they are demonstrating their intended resilience in the current market climate of uncertainty. As we look to Q2 and the remainder of 2025, much of the discussion has shifted to potential impacts from the macro environment.

我們對我們的第三方資本關係網絡感到非常滿意，並很高興歡迎 Fortress Investment Group 成為我們平台上新的承諾資本提供者。總體而言，這些關係目前占我們平台上資金的 50% 以上，並且在當前不確定的市場環境下展現出其預期的韌性。當我們展望第二季及 2025 年剩餘時間時，大部分討論已轉向宏觀環境的潛在影響。

As mentioned, we've seen little discernible impact of the macro on credit performance so far. Uncertainty has increased, and we see the potential for both upside and downside scenarios that are credible in the near to medium-term. The main near-term risk in our estimation is reinflation, as any persistent tariffs placed on a significant share of our import economy will make things less affordable for consumers, a clear negative influence on credit.

如上所述，到目前為止，我們尚未發現宏觀經濟對信貸表現有明顯影響。不確定性增加，我們認為短期至中期內可能出現上行和下行情境。我們估計，近期的主要風險是通貨膨脹，因為對我們進口經濟的很大一部分徵收的任何持續關稅都將使消費者無法負擔得起東西，這對信貸產生明顯的負面影響。

On the other hand, in the context of an already high default environment with razor thin savings rates, our continuing stance is that any dynamic, which tempers current high levels of consumption back into line with underlying income would represent a positive effect on credit. We remain sanguine about the prospective risks in the labor market, where we observe as many job openings in the economy as there are unemployed workers, and continue to perceive a structural shortage of labor supply that is under continuing pressure from demographic trends.

另一方面，在違約率已經很高且儲蓄率極低的情況下，我們仍然堅持的立場是，任何能夠將當前的高消費水準調節回與基本收入相符的動態都會對信貸產生積極影響。我們對勞動市場的未來風險保持樂觀，我們觀察到經濟中的職缺數量與失業工人數量相當，我們繼續認為勞動力供應存在結構性短缺，而這種短缺正受到人口趨勢的持續壓力。

Given this context, our macro assumptions for the duration of this year remain consistent with the prior quarter. Namely, we factor in no explicit expectation of any rate cuts and are planning for a steady macro environment in which the Upstart Macro Index remains in the range of 1.4 to 1.5.

有鑑於此背景，我們對今年全年的宏觀假設與上一季保持一致。也就是說，我們沒有考慮任何明確的降息預期，並計劃維持穩定的宏觀環境，其中新貴宏觀指數保持在 1.4 至 1.5 的範圍內。

With this as background for Q2, we are expecting total revenues of approximately $225 million, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $210 million and total net interest income of approximately positive $15 million. Contribution margin of approximately 55%, net income of approximately negative $10 million, adjusted net income of approximately positive $25 million. Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $37 million with a basic weighted average share count of approximately 96 million shares and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 104 million shares.

以此為背景，我們預計第二季總收入約為 2.25 億美元，其中包括費用收入約 2.1 億美元和淨利息總收入約 1,500 萬美元。貢獻利潤率約55%，淨收入約負1,000萬美元，調整後淨收入約正2,500萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 約 3,700 萬美元，基本加權平均股數約 9,600 萬股，稀釋加權平均股數約 1.04 億股。

For the full year of 2025, we now expect total revenues of approximately $1.01 billion, consisting of revenue from fees of approximately $920 million and net interest income of approximately positive $90 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 19%, and we expect GAAP net income to be positive in the second half of the year and positive for the full calendar year. Beyond the numbers, I would just like to reiterate our gratitude to all of the hard-working teams at Upstart who make these results achievable.

對於 2025 年全年，我們目前預計總收入約為 10.1 億美元，其中包括費用收入約 9.2 億美元和淨利息收入約 9,000 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 19%，我們預計下半年 GAAP 淨收入為正，全年為正。除了數字之外，我只想再次向 Upstart 所有辛勤工作的團隊表示感謝，是他們讓這些成果得以實現。

And with that, operator, over to you for Q&A.

接線員，接下來輪到您進行問答了。

(Operator Instructions) Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

（操作員說明）Dan Dolev，Mizuho。

Hey, guys. Really nice results here. Congrats. I have one question and one follow-up. I was really excited to see the Walmart partnership. Can you talk a little bit more about that? And then, I have a follow-up as well. Thank you.

嘿，大家好。這裡的結果確實很好。恭喜。我有一個問題和一個後續問題。我很高興看到與沃爾瑪的合作。您能再多談一下這個嗎？然後，我還有一個後續行動。謝謝。

Hey, Dan. This is Dave. Thanks for the question. Yes, we only have so much we can really say there, but we did sign a one-year agreement with Walmart's majority-owned fintech called OnePay to basically make our products available to Walmart customers. And that's actually already been launched, which is kind of how it got out into the public sphere.

嘿，丹。這是戴夫。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們能說的只有這麼多，但我們確實與沃爾瑪控股的金融科技公司 OnePay 簽署了為期一年的協議，基本上是為了向沃爾瑪客戶提供我們的產品。事實上，它已經啟動了，這就是它進入公共領域的方式。

But I will just say, generally, I think with our move to have the best rates and best process for everybody, which I know you keep hearing from us, Walmart is the kind of partner that we're really excited about because they've been really focused on delivering value for American consumers for a very long time, like more than 60 years. So it's exactly the kind of partnership we like where can deliver the best value when it comes to a credit product. And hopefully, this will be a great win for both companies over time.

但我只想說，總的來說，我認為我們致力於為每個人提供最優惠的價格和最佳的流程，我知道你們一直在聽到我們這麼說，沃爾瑪是我們真正感到興奮的合作夥伴，因為他們長期以來一直專注於為美國消費者提供價值，例如 60 多年。因此，這正是我們喜歡的那種合作關係，在信貸產品方面，它可以提供最大的價值。希望從長遠來看，這對兩家公司來說都將是一場巨大的勝利。

Got it, thank you. And just as a quick follow-up, and I apologize if this has been addressed. Can you maybe give us a little bit of a sense of trends in April and maybe early May, if there's anything you can provide, that would be great.

知道了，謝謝。作為一個快速的後續問題，如果這個問題已經解決，我深表歉意。您能否向我們介紹一下四月份和五月初的趨勢，如果您能提供任何信息，那就太好了。

Hey, Dan. How are you doing? It's Sanjay here. I think anything we can say with respect to this quarter, it's probably aptly captured in our guidance. I think that's about as much as color we can get.

嘿，丹。你好嗎？我是桑傑。我認為，關於本季我們所說的一切，可能都已適當地體現在我們的指導中。我想這就是我們所能得到的全部顏色了。

Okay. Yeah, fair enough. Really appreciate it. Congrats, again.

好的。是的，很公平。真的很感激。再次恭喜。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊‧埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

Hi. This is John Coffey on for Ramsey. Thanks for taking my question. I just had two short questions. I was wondering now that you've been updating your models, and it seems like that's been a process that been ongoing. Is there a good way to think about your conversion rates for the remainder of the year or the next two quarters? Should we expect that those rates could start to touch that 20% level? So that's that first question I had.

你好。這是約翰·科菲 (John Coffey) 代替拉姆齊 (Ramsey) 上場。感謝您回答我的問題。我只有兩個簡短的問題。我現在想知道您是否一直在更新您的模型，而且這似乎是一個持續進行的過程。有沒有一個好方法來考慮今年剩餘時間或未來兩季的轉換率？我們是否應該預期這些利率可能會開始觸及 20% 的水平？這就是我的第一個問題。

And also, I noticed that it used to be your UMI had a slide like I think last quarter is maybe around page 10, and there were quite a few data points attached to it. When I look at this quarter, your push back to the back of the deck on slide 20, and I don't see any numbers really tied to it. Is there any reason for that? Are you deemphasizing this is something you're reporting to the Street?

而且，我注意到您的 UMI 曾經有一張幻燈片，我想上個季度大概是在第 10 頁左右，上面附有相當多的數據點。當我回顧這個季度時，你在第 20 張投影片的後面，我沒有看到任何與之真正相關的數字。這有什麼原因嗎？您是否不再強調這是您向華爾街報告的事情？

Hey, John. Just quickly on conversion rates, I mean, the conversion rates, which really are a very principal driver of growth, they did grow nicely from, I think, 14% a year ago to 19% in the most recent quarter. And all else being equal, we would expect to drive them up with better models and improved automation, etc. And things like lower -- the Fed lower rates, those are things that can also be helpful. So there's a bunch of things that go into conversion.

嘿，約翰。簡單說一下轉換率，我的意思是，轉換率確實是成長的一個主要驅動力，我認為它確實從一年前的 14% 成長到了最近一個季度的 19%。在其他條件相同的情況下，我們希望透過更好的模型和改進的自動化等來推動它們的發展。而諸如聯準會降低利率等因素也會有所幫助。因此，轉換涉及許多因素。

Generally, we would like to drive it up and some of that is macro dependent and some of it is just technology that we could deliver. But we are definitely -- we kind of showed it in our investor deck a little bit new way to look at the conversion rate in terms of how many unfulfilled requests there were there. And we just think there's a lot of ways that we can begin to fill in those bar graphs and convert more people.

總的來說，我們希望推動這一進程，其中一些取決於宏觀因素，而另一些則取決於我們可以提供的技術。但我們確實——我們在投資者簡報中展示了一種新的方式，即根據有多少未滿足的請求來查看轉換率。我們只是認為有很多方法可以開始填充這些條形圖並吸引更多的人。

All right. Thank you, Dave.

好的。謝謝你，戴夫。

Hey, John, it's Sanjay. Just quickly touching on your question about the Macro Index. First of all, I think it's moved back in the deck, hopefully, because we put some more stuff in the front for you, so it wasn't meant to be personal with respect to the Index. And look, some of the numbers we had on there previously, it was all Fed reported data. It was things like the personal savings rate, some inflation indicators and some unemployment indicators.

嘿，約翰，我是桑傑。我只是想快速回答一下您關於宏觀指數的問題。首先，我認為它被移回了牌組，希望如此，因為我們在前面為你放了更多的東西，所以它並不意味著與索引有關。你看，我們之前得到的一些數字都是聯準會報告的數據。其中包括個人儲蓄率、一些通貨膨脹指標和一些失業指標。

I think it was causing a bit of confusion because I think people thought that we were deriving our Index from those numbers when, in fact, we just view those to be correlative. And so we've just cleaned up the page a little bit. I think if those Fed data points are useful, we can certainly point you to them. They're publicly printed.

我認為這造成了一些混亂，因為我認為人們認為我們是根據這些數字得出指數的，而事實上，我們只是將這些數字視為相關的。因此，我們只是稍微清理了一下頁面。我認為，如果這些聯準會數據點有用，我們當然可以向您指出它們。它們是公開印刷的。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Simon Clinch, Redburn Atlantic.

西蒙‧克林奇 (Simon Clinch)，雷德伯恩大西洋公司 (Redburn Atlantic)。

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could just touch on the contribution margin and the mix impacts we've had on that. And just how to think about that through the year. Ultimately, what's embedded in your guidance is my first question.

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以談談貢獻利潤率以及我們對此產生的混合影響。以及如何在全年思考這個問題。最終，我的第一個問題是您的指導中包含了什麼內容。

Hey, Simon. The contribution margin, I guess I would point out a couple of dynamics in our core personal loan product. I think in our historic choice of the borrowing base, we have a relatively consistent margin. I would point to two dynamics. One, we are increasingly adding to our mix, maybe on the primary side of the borrower segment. It's obviously more competed market. And so I think, the margins in that segment would not touch the level that we have in some of the more historic segments that we play in. And so that will sort of act to decrease the margin numbers as we talked about in some of the prepared remarks.

嘿，西蒙。關於貢獻利潤率，我想我會指出我們核心個人貸款產品的幾個動態。我認為，在我們歷史性的借貸基礎選擇中，我們有一個相對一致的利潤率。我想指出兩個動態。首先，我們正在不斷擴大我們的業務組合，可能主要集中在藉款人群體方面。這顯然是一個競爭更激烈的市場。因此我認為，該領域的利潤不會達到我們所涉足的一些更具歷史意義的領域的水平。正如我們在一些準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，這將在一定程度上降低利潤率。

And then, of course, as the newer product scale, whether it's HELOC or auto lending or even some of our small dollar efforts, as those scale and gain traction, those because they're earlier in their life cycle, don't have mature margins yet either. And so those two things are going to act to bring down the average number on the P&L and some of what we pointed out with respect to our earlier remarks.

然後，當然，隨著新產品規模的擴大，無論是 HELOC 還是汽車貸款，甚至是我們的一些小額美元貸款，隨著它們的規模擴大並獲得關注，由於它們處於生命週期的早期，因此還沒有成熟的利潤率。因此，這兩件事將會降低損益表的平均數字以及我們先前評論中指出的一些內容。

Okay. Thanks. And just as a follow-up, just in terms of the environment we're in, we're hearing from some other players in the industry that there's very strong demand for personal loans feeding off the desire to consolidate debt from very large credit card balances. I was wondering if you could just talk to that demand trend and any sort of fluctuations you might be seeing in that or if you can corroborate that.

好的。謝謝。作為後續行動，就我們所處的環境而言，我們從業內其他一些參與者那裡聽說，由於人們希望整合巨額信用卡餘額中的債務，因此對個人貸款的需求非常強勁。我想知道您是否可以談論需求趨勢以及您可能看到的任何波動，或者您是否可以證實這一點。

Hye, Simon, I think credit demand continues to be strong. In fact, I would just say on a seasonal basis, it tends to strengthen at this time of the year as you come out of Q1. So we are definitely kind of experiencing the end of the seasonality, the sort of tax season seasonality. And whether there's anything special to this year, a little unclear. But I guess from our perspective, gross demand, sort of the amount of just gross demand for credit out there doesn't vary a time. It always tends to be quite strong. And for sure, right now, we're seeing a lot of demand out there.

Hye，Simon，我認為信貸需求持續強勁。事實上，我只想說，從季節性來看，隨著第一季的結束，這種趨勢往往會在每年的這個時候增強。所以我們肯定正在經歷季節性的結束，就像稅收季節的季節性一樣。今年是否有什麼特別的事情，有點不清楚。但我想從我們的角度來看，總需求，也就是信貸的總需求量不會隨時間而改變。它總是趨向於相當強大。可以肯定的是，目前我們看到了大量的需求。

Okay. Great. Thanks.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Kyle Peterson, Needham and Company.

凱爾彼得森，尼德漢姆公司。

Great. Thanks. Hey, guys. It's Sam Salvas on for Kyle today. Nice results and thanks for taking the questions. Good to see the agreement with Fortress today. I was wondering if you guys could talk a bit more about how you're thinking about funding and the funding mix given the more noisy macro climate we're in today.

偉大的。謝謝。嘿，大家好。今天由薩姆·薩爾瓦斯 (Sam Salvas) 取代凱爾 (Kyle)。結果很好，感謝您回答問題。很高興看到今天與 Fortress 達成協議。我想知道，在當今更加吵雜的宏觀環境下，你們是否可以進一步談談對融資和融資組合的看法。

Hey, Sam. Yeah, just maybe as a refresher, contextually, there's maybe three general sources of funding we think about. There is the originations that happen by other lenders who are using our technology, they tend to be banks and credit unions originating for their own balance sheet. We've got a number of large-scale partnerships. You referenced the latest one we announced, which is the Fortress. And then, there's what you might think of as the at will or securitization market.

嘿，山姆。是的，也許只是回顧一下，從上下文來看，我們考慮的一般資金來源可能有三種。其他貸款機構使用我們的技術進行貸款，他們往往是銀行和信用合作社，為自己的資產負債表進行貸款。我們已建立了多個大規模的合作關係。您提到了我們宣布的最新成果，即 Fortress。然後，您可能會想到隨意或證券化市場。

And we like a balance between all three of those. I think they each have a place in our ecosystem. Obviously, with the added uncertainty in today's market, securitization markets and sort of at will funding is a little bit less reliable. And I think that the things that were behind our strategy for creating a large -- a number of large, committed partnerships is kind of playing out right now and really shining. And so in the current market, maybe there's a bit more sort of reliance placed on those agreements given that they're sort of designed for this market in particular.

我們喜歡在這三者之間取得平衡。我認為它們在我們的生態系統中都有一席之地。顯然，由於當今市場不確定性的增加，證券化市場和隨意融資的可靠性有所降低。我認為，我們建立大量大型、忠誠的合作關係的策略正在發揮作用，而且效果顯著。因此，在當前市場中，也許人們會更加依賴這些協議，因為它們是專門為這個市場設計的。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then, you guys called out some take rate pressure from higher sub-prime borrowers. Could you talk about how you guys are thinking about take rates as you kind of update your models throughout the remainder of the year?

知道了。好的。這很有道理。然後，你們呼籲提高次級房貸借款人的利率壓力。您能否談談，在你們今年剩餘時間更新模型時，你們是如何考慮接受率的？

Yeah. Sam, just to clarify, that sort of take rate, I wouldn't call it pressure, we're sort of increasingly successful in the super prime segment, not the sub-prime. And very prime borrowers have a lot of competitive alternatives, and take rates and margins are necessarily lower in that segment. So as we gain share or increase mix from maybe the prime and the super prime segments of borrowers, you'll see the average take rates come down.

是的。山姆，我只是想澄清一下，這種接受率，我不會稱之為壓力，我們在超級優質領域取得了越來越大的成功，而不是次級優質領域。而非常優質的借款人有很多有競爭力的選擇，而且該部分的利率和利潤率必然較低。因此，隨著我們從優質和超優質借款人群體中獲得份額或增加組合，您會看到平均利率下降。

I think it's also important to say that our contribution margin and take rates are well above what they were back in 2021. So we have a lot of room. It's not really our goal to maximize our contribution margin at this point. So diversifying into super prime loans has such value to us that I think taking down our contribution margin back towards where it was in our earlier days is actually a very good thing.

我認為同樣重要的是，我們的貢獻利潤率和提取率遠高於 2021 年的水準。所以我們有很多空間。目前，最大化我們的貢獻利潤率並不是我們的真正目標。因此，多角化經營超級優質貸款對我們來說具有如此大的價值，我認為將我們的貢獻利潤率降低到早期的水平實際上是一件非常好的事情。

Okay. Got you. Okay. Thanks, guys.

好的。明白了。好的。謝謝大家。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. The first question I wanted to ask was about just how have funding partners reacted to the volatility? Did you see any pullback from either your forward flow partners or even from, I guess, the third-party partners, the more opportunistic capital in early April from the volatility we saw in the fixed income markets?

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想問的第一個問題是，融資夥伴對波動性有何反應？您是否看到您的正向流動合作夥伴，甚至第三方合作夥伴，以及 4 月初固定收益市場波動中機會主義資本的撤退？

Hey, Mihir. I think that these committed partnerships are frankly behaving exactly as designed. The basis of those partnerships was that we essentially committed to navigating the different parts of the macro cycle together. And the structure of these deals helped to even out the different phases of that cycle. And those things are going exactly the way we expect them to. We believe we have the tools to read and react to shifts in the credit risk environment very quickly on behalf of the partners.

嘿，米希爾。坦白說，我認為這些堅定的夥伴關係完全按照設計進行。這些夥伴關係的基礎是我們本質上致力於共同駕馭宏觀週期的不同部分。這些交易的結構有助於平衡該週期的不同階段。而這些事情正按照我們預期的方式進行。我們相信，我們擁有代表合作夥伴快速解讀和應對信用風險環境變化的工具。

And a lot of these partnerships, frankly, have now accumulated some overperformance in these structures that are there for a rainy day. So I think that they are behaving exactly as intended. More broadly, the sort of securitization markets and the at will markets are still functioning. I think that spreads are a little bit higher and events rates are not as high as they were before. But the beautiful thing about the large committed partnerships we have is that we don't have to rely as much on the at will markets. And so as a result, our funding rails are as resilient as ever and we haven't had any pullbacks.

坦白說，許多這樣的合作夥伴關係現在已經在這些結構中累積了一些超額業績，以備不時之需。所以我認為他們的行為正是預期的。更廣泛地說，證券化市場和隨意市場仍在發揮作用。我認為利差稍微高了一點，事件發生率也不像以前那麼高了。但我們擁有的大型忠誠合作關係的優點在於，我們不必過度依賴隨意市場。因此，我們的資金管道一如既往地有彈性，沒有出現任何回檔。

Let me just add to that, Mihir. I mean just for clarity, we've had no pullbacks from our private credit kind of committed capital partners, and we likewise had no pullbacks from banks or credit unions. So I think our credit continues to perform. And I think the confidence they have on Upstart is quite strong.

讓我補充一點，米希爾。我的意思是，為了清楚起見，我們沒有從私人信貸類型的承諾資本合作夥伴那裡撤資，同樣，我們也沒有從銀行或信用合作社撤資。所以我認為我們的信用將繼續保持良好。我認為他們對 Upstart 非常有信心。

No, that is helpful. Thank you. And then, just one other question. On a similar topic really in terms of the macro volatility. Dave, you mentioned you'll have more tools to react to it. I guess the question really is, how has Upstart reacted so far to -- like how have you changed to the rising uncertainty around macro? Have you changed any underwriting any of your -- the product mix, maybe where you're trying to commit more marketing dollars. Has there been any changes so far to how you're operating the business to the way the macro uncertainty has changed over the last four months? Thank you.

不，這很有幫助。謝謝。然後，還有一個問題。就宏觀波動而言，確實存在類似的話題。戴夫，你提到你將有更多的工具來應對它。我想真正的問題是，Upstart 到目前為止對此有何反應——例如，您如何應對宏觀經濟日益增長的不確定性？您是否改變過任何承保產品組合，也許您正試圖投入更多的行銷資金。到目前為止，由於過去四個月宏觀不確定性的變化，您的業務運作方式有什麼變化嗎？謝謝。

Well, I'll say, first of all, I mean, we're definitely a conservative business who is very careful about fixed costs and hiring and things of that nature. So we have been forever, but I think for years now, I think we're extremely cautious about how we plan our own business. Just by way of example, all of our guidance and all does not assume any reduction in Fed rates this year. So that would just be a sample of that.

嗯，首先我想說，我們絕對是一家保守的企業，對固定成本、招聘和諸如此類的事情非常謹慎。我們一直都是這樣，但我認為多年來，我們對如何規劃自己的業務都非常謹慎。僅舉個例子，我們所有的指導意見都不假設聯準會今年會降低利率。這只是一個例子。

With respect to credit, which I'm -- you seem like maybe you're asking that as well. Generally, we rely on our models being very quick and adapting to macroeconomic changes, and we also build some conservatism in there so that we don't assume the future will be as good as the past was. So that combination, we think, is as good as you get in the market. I don't think there's anyone else that has models that are adaptive and quick to hone in on any changes in the macro, and we have some conservatism built in. And it's serving us really well as well as, of course, our lending partners and our private capital partners.

關於信用，我──你似乎也在問這個問題。一般來說，我們依靠我們的模型非常快速地適應宏觀經濟變化，我們還在其中建立了一些保守主義，以便我們不會假設未來會像過去一樣好。因此，我們認為，這種組合是市場上最好的組合。我認為沒有其他人擁有能夠適應並快速適應宏觀變化的模型，而且我們已經建立了一些保守主義。它為我們以及我們的貸款合作夥伴和私人資本合作夥伴提供了非常好的服務。

All right. Thank you for taking my questions.

好的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Pete Christiansen, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Pete Christiansen。

Thank you. Good evening. Nice trends here. Do you want to talk -- can you give some good color on the consumer credit side, seems still pretty healthy. Also, your partners on the at-will side still fairly healthy. I wanted to dig a little deeper on to the ABS side. I know you had a $320 million transaction two weeks ago. Just curious if you had any feedback on the health of what you're seeing in the ABS market for more consumer loans? Do you think there's opportunity to do more there this year? And then, if you could comment on some of your risk retention and how do you believe that that's going to trend in the next few quarters. Thank you.

謝謝。晚安.這裡的趨勢不錯。您想談談嗎—您能否對消費信貸方面做出一些正面的評價，看起來仍然相當健康。此外，您的隨意合作夥伴仍然相當健康。我想更深入地了解 ABS 方面。我知道你兩週前有一筆 3.2 億美元的交易。我只是好奇，您對 ABS 市場中更多消費貸款的健康狀況有何反饋？您認為今年還有機​​會做更多的事情嗎？然後，如果您可以評論您的一些風險保留，以及您認為未來幾季的趨勢如何。謝謝。

Yeah, hey, Pete. Yeah, we're really pleased with the way that the latest ABS deal printed, frankly. It was a very healthily oversubscribed book on the bonds. The spreads were a little bit wider than they were earlier in the year. That's sort of natural. But overall, I think, we're really happy with the way it worked.

是的，嘿，皮特。是的，坦白說，我們對最新的 ABS 交易的達成方式感到非常滿意。該債券的認購量非常可觀，超額認購。與今年早些時候相比，利差略有擴大。這很自然。但總的來說，我認為我們對它的工作方式非常滿意。

And, in particular, we use that market opportunistically. We don't rely on it. Our committed capital departments don't rely on it. When it's available and we can print deals like that, it's great. But if it's not, it's not sort of a cog in the wheel that we've got a lot of reliance on. So all in all, it is a good story.

特別是，我們抓住機會利用了該市場。我們不依賴它。我們承諾的資本部門並不依賴它。當它可用時，我們可以列印這樣的交易，這很棒。但如果不是，它就不是我們所依賴的齒輪。總而言之，這是一個好故事。

I guess the part of your question is where the ABS markets go from here. I don't know that we have a strong view on that. They're famously hard to predict. But I guess the fact that they are just an opportunistic channel for us makes it less acutely important.

我想你的問題是 ABS 市場未來將走向何方。我不知道我們對此是否有強烈的看法。眾所周知，它們很難預測。但我想，事實上它們對我們來說只是一個機會主義管道，這使得它不那麼重要。

That's helpful. And then, I guess, on the Fortress plan and also, I guess, you added 15 new partners as well. Just curious if there's any trend changes in risk retention, co-investment and how that's been going?

這很有幫助。然後，我想，在 Fortress 計畫中，你還增加了 15 個新合作夥伴。只是好奇風險保留、共同投資是否有任何趨勢變化以及進展如何？

Not really. I think the structure of these deals is very consistent now. So no trend, particularly in other direction in terms of how they work or how they're structured or what the terms are.

並不真地。我認為這些交易的結構現在非常一致。因此沒有趨勢，特別是在它們如何運作、如何建構或術語是什麼方面的其他方向。

Okay. Thank you. Nice report.

好的。謝謝。很好的報告。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

Hey, guys. It's Mike Infante on for James. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to sort of dig in on how you're thinking about the TAM opportunity today. So if I just think about the overall unsecured personal lending market, like is there any rough segmentation you can provide just on how that TAM opportunity of, call it, $150 billion sort of segment by FICO score. I'm just trying to contextualize your relative penetration with a more traditional Upstart borrower versus a newer prime borrower? Thanks.

嘿，大家好。邁克·因凡特 (Mike Infante) 替換詹姆斯。感謝您回答我們的問題。我只是想深入了解您今天對 TAM 機會的看法。因此，如果我只考慮整體無擔保個人貸款市場，您是否可以提供一些粗略的細分，說明 TAM 機會如何根據 FICO 評分進行細分，即 1500 億美元。我只是想將您的相對滲透率與更傳統的 Upstart 借款人與較新的優質借款人進行比較？謝謝。

I would say we have some sort of like back of the envelope like notion of that. We don't try to measure that too particularly. But I would say roughly that consumers in the US split somewhat evenly between what you would call a prime -- even super prime borrower, 720 plus or more of the people that we have typically served low 600s to 720. And if you just want to -- I think the -- at least my take is, from a personal loan perspective, the size of those markets are relatively similar.

我想說我們對此有某種類似信封背面的概念。我們不會嘗試對此進行特別的衡量。但我大致可以說，美國的消費者在所謂的優質借款人——甚至是超級優質借款人——之間的分配相當平均，我們通常為 600 到 720 名借款人提供服務，其中 720 名或更多。如果你只是想 - 我認為 - 至少我的看法是，從個人貸款的角度來看，這些市場的規模相對相似。

So I think from that perspective, as we began to really open up to the super prime part of the market, we've kind of doubled the TAM, particularly in personal loans. And then, of course, that's all quite small relative to the TAM in home and auto put together, but that's how we would think about that.

因此我認為從這個角度來看，當我們開始真正向超級優質市場開放時，我們的 TAM 已經翻了一番，特別是在個人貸款方面。當然，相對於家用和汽車領域的 TAM 而言，這一切都相當小，但我們就是這麼認為的。

That's helpful. Maybe just on customer acquisition. Anything you would call out just in terms of how your mix is evolving between pure organic traffic to upstart.com, how much is originated via direct mail and what you're sourcing via third-party marketplaces. Thanks.

這很有幫助。也許只是為了獲取客戶。您是否可以指出，您的流量組合在 upstart.com 的純有機流量、來自直郵的流量以及透過第三方市場購買的流量之間如何演變？謝謝。

Yeah, hi, Mike. Nothing really to call out in terms of channel trends from last quarter to this. It's been pretty steady.

是的，你好，麥克。從上個季度到現在，通路趨勢方面確實沒有什麼值得關注的。一直很穩定。

[James] Hecht, Jefferies.

[詹姆斯]赫克特，傑弗里斯。

Hey, guys. It's actually John Hecht from Jefferies. Hope you are good. Thanks for taking my question. Real quick, Sanjay, maybe a little bit more just kind of on, I guess, thinking about the fluctuations in the take rate. Obviously, we know there's a difference between core and super prime or the prime customer, but maybe what are you guys thinking about in terms of mix over the quarter over this year? Will prime continue to be a growing part of the mix? And then, at maturity, what is the take rate of like HELOC and auto? I mean, I know those are different markets with different sets of factors. So what are the kind of mature take rates of those versus the current take rate?

嘿，大家好。實際上是 Jefferies 的 John Hecht。希望你一切都好。感謝您回答我的問題。桑傑，很快，我想，也許我再多說一點，思考一下接受率的波動。顯然，我們知道核心客戶和超優質客戶或優質客戶之間存在差異，但也許你們對今年本季的組合有何看法？Prime 是否會繼續成為組合中日益增長的一部分？那麼，到期時，HELOC 和汽車的利率是多少？我的意思是，我知道那些是不同的市場，有不同的因素。那麼，與目前的接受率相比，這些成熟的接受率是多少？

Hey, John. Sorry about the name slip there. I don't think we have an explicit split between maybe sort of like super prime and near-prime segments within our guidance. I will say that as we said in our remarks, I think we did disproportionately well in the primer segments, and we hope for that to continue. So it's an area we're bullish on. We're earlier on, obviously, and we're sort of maybe the more beginning stages, so we maybe hope to grow that disproportionately.

嘿，約翰。抱歉，名字記錯了。我認為，在我們的指導中，我們並沒有對超級優質部分和近優質部分進行明確的劃分。我想說的是，正如我們在評論中所說的那樣，我認為我們在入門部分做得非常好，我們希望這種情況能夠繼續下去。因此，我們對這個領域持樂觀態度。顯然，我們處於早期階段，可能還處於起步階段，因此我們希望實現不成比例的成長。

With respect to take rates on the newer products, it's still a little bit early to tell, I think. But I think, in general, I would, say both home and auto would have the profile of being larger loans, maybe with more modest, at least, initially more modest take rates until our models can create the type of separation we have in personal lending, which allows us to sort of increase take rates over time. But there'll be larger loans with initially lower take rates and maybe sort of similar dollar contributions per loan.

至於新產品的利率，我認為現在下結論還為時過早。但我認為，總的來說，我認為房屋和汽車貸款都屬於較大額度的貸款，可能至少在初期會有更適中的利率，直到我們的模型能夠創造出我們在個人貸款中看到的那種分離，這使我們能夠隨著時間的推移提高利率。但會有更大額度的貸款，最初的利率會較低，而且每筆貸款的美元貢獻可能也差不多。

And then, in the case of some products such as maybe, for example, auto is a good one, that contribution will be more ratable by the life of the loan in the form of servicing economics and less about upfront transaction take as we have almost exclusively on our core PL business.

然後，就某些產品而言，例如汽車產品可能是一個不錯的產品，這種貢獻將以服務經濟的形式在貸款期限內進行評估，而較少地依賴前期交易收入，因為我們幾乎完全專注於核心 PL 業務。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then, a follow-up. Clearly, the private credit markets, they can structure I guess, mutually favorable deals with you guys. And as a result, and they have a lot of liquidity in that market as a result, it's pretty active. How would you define kind of the banks? I know like there was -- earlier on, they were fairly active and obviously, just given economic uncertainty and inflation and just sort of the last few years, I think they've been less active. How would you characterize that? And then, what are you looking for in terms of ability to kind of reengage more aggressively with that group?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，進行後續行動。顯然，私人信貸市場，我想他們可以與你們達成互惠互利的交易。因此，他們在該市場上擁有大量流動性，因此市場相當活躍。您如何定義銀行？我知道，就像以前一樣，他們相當活躍，但顯然，考慮到經濟的不確定性和通貨膨脹，以及過去幾年的情況，我認為他們不那麼活躍了。您如何描述這一點？那麼，就更積極地與該群體重新接觸的能力而言，您尋求什麼呢？

Well, I think the thing that you can say about banks is they love secured products much more than unsecured products. So personal loans, a lot of the funding at the primary end comes from credit unions and increasingly institutional capital, private credit blended in certain ways, we think we'll compete quite well in the super prime part of our business. But with respect to banks, they really prefer secured products. And right now, there is certainly more demand from them for our HELOC product. And I believe, soon enough, our auto products that we would be struggling to fill that demand for a very long time.

嗯，我認為你可以說銀行更喜歡有擔保的產品而不是無擔保的產品。因此，個人貸款，主要端的大量資金來自信用合作社和越來越多的機構資本，私人信貸以某種方式混合，我們認為我們將在業務的超級優質部分中具有相當好的競爭力。但對於銀行而言，他們確實更喜歡有擔保的產品。現在，他們對我們的 HELOC 產品的需求肯定更大。我相信，很快我們的汽車產品就很難在很長一段時間內滿足這項需求。

So I think that's okay. I think it's a good balance where personal loans are mostly credit unions plus institutional funding combined in interesting ways and then secured products really -- a lot of interest from banks. And honestly, it will take us some time to grow those businesses large enough to really begin to fill that demand.

所以我認為這沒問題。我認為這是一個很好的平衡，個人貸款主要是信用合作社加上機構資金以有趣的方式結合在一起，然後是真正的有擔保產品——銀行對此很感興趣。老實說，我們需要一些時間來發展這些業務，使其足夠大，以真正滿足這一需求。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks very much for the color.

好的。完美的。非常感謝這個顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Hi, guys. A question on, I guess, both funding and the outlook. The Fortress agreement obviously comes with a big headline number. But the full year guidance kind of up only a little bit. I mean given that you're not seeing any pullback in funding and you've added sort of $1.2 billion in incremental funding from Fortress. I guess, I'm just curious why the 2025 outlook isn't up even more?

嗨，大家好。我想，這是一個關於資金和前景的問題。堡壘協議顯然伴隨著一個重大的數字。但全年預期僅略有上升。我的意思是，鑑於您沒有看到任何資金回落，並且您已經從 Fortress 獲得了 12 億美元的增量資金。我想，我只是好奇為什麼 2025 年的前景沒有進一步提高？

Hey, Rob. The short answer is that we were never short of funding per se. So we're not funding gated in 2025. Having more funding is good and allows us to handle upside scenarios and have more diversification in the funding, but really -- the gating item really is kind of economic acquisition of the right borrowers. And that's almost always in our history been what gates our growth. And so it's great to have more funding and we hope to add more partners, but it doesn't translate directly into growth.

嘿，羅布。簡而言之，我們本身從來就不缺乏資金。因此，我們的資金不會在 2025 年受到限制。擁有更多資金是件好事，可以讓我們應對上行情景，實現資金更加多樣化，但實際上——門控項目實際上是一種對合適借款人的經濟收購。在我們的歷史上，這幾乎一直是阻礙我們發展的因素。因此，獲得更多資金是件好事，我們希望增加更多合作夥伴，但這並不會直接轉化為成長。

Okay. And if I could just ask one more on OnePay. Can you comment at all on the underwriting or credit box there? Is that Upstart’s decision? And then, are there like any minimum volume commitments or approval rates embedded in the agreement?

好的。我是否可以就 OnePay 再問一個問題？您能對那裡的承保或信用箱發表一些評論嗎？這是 Upstart 的決定嗎？那麼，協議中是否有任何最低數量承諾或批准率？

It is our underwriting in our models that drive these things to a joint venture structure with them that we have -- we sit alongside them and bear some of the risk, which is the nature of these co-investment partnerships, but it is purely our technology and our models that drive the originations.

正是我們模型中的核保將這些事情推向了我們與他們建立的合資結構——我們與他們並肩作戰並承擔部分風險，這是這些共同投資夥伴關係的性質，但純粹是我們的技術和我們的模型推動了這些起源。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Hi, guys. Congrats on the quarter. I'm not sure if this was covered, but I was curious, it was nice to see the increase in super prime borrowers over the last couple of quarters. I guess my question is, how do you drive that payers. Does that require different marketing messages or are you marketing in different channels? Like how are you kind of controlling that? And what's driven the shift there? And I have a follow-up if you have to have.

嗨，大家好。恭喜本季取得佳績。我不確定這是否被涵蓋，但我很好奇，很高興看到過去幾季超級優質借款人的數量有所增加。我想我的問題是，你如何推動付款人。這是否需要不同的行銷訊息或您是否透過不同的管道進行行銷？你是如何控制它的？那麼是什麼推動了這種轉變呢？如果您有需要的話，我可以跟進。

Hey, Reggie. This is Dave. Great question. I mean, this is a transition that is in process, but it started first with having a competitive product. And that means competitive rates for very high FICO, high credit borrowers and that really came through working with our lending partners to realize that we had to have a lower take rate ourselves and then they had to have lower expectations but also have corresponding lower loss rates. And that's what we announced as our T-Prime program a while back, and we've really been focused on that since mid-2024.

嘿，雷吉。這是戴夫。好問題。我的意思是，這是一個正在進行的轉變，但它首先從擁有一款具有競爭力的產品開始。這意味著對於 FICO 值非常高、信用良好的借款人來說，我們可以獲得有競爭力的利率，而這實際上是透過與我們的貸款合作夥伴合作實現的，我們意識到我們必須自己降低利率，然後他們必須降低期望值，但也要相應地降低損失率。這就是我們不久前宣布的 T-Prime 計劃，自 2024 年中期以來，我們一直專注於此。

So if you sort of fast forward to today, we have very competitive products across the credit spectrum, including for the finest borrowers out there. And now, as you suggest, there's more to the puzzle in terms of becoming the leader in all segments, which is our goal and that really is to adjust our messaging and our marketing targets. But if most people perceive Upstart as really good for people who are treated poorly by traditional lenders then that's, of course, a dated message. And we have a lot of work going on to update our story to the market, particularly to consumers to realize that Upstart is always going to be a great first place to start if you want the best rate and the fastest process.

因此，如果你快轉到今天，我們在整個信貸領域都有非常有競爭力的產品，包括針對最優秀的借款人的產品。現在，正如您所說，成為所有領域的領導者還有更多的難題，這是我們的目標，這實際上就是調整我們的訊息傳遞和行銷目標。但如果大多數人認為 Upstart 確實能為那些受到傳統貸款機構不公平對待的人們提供良好的服務，那麼這當然是一個過時的資訊。我們正在進行大量工作來向市場更新我們的故事，特別是讓費用者認識到，如果您想要最好的價格和最快的流程，Upstart 永遠是一個很好的起點。

Got it. Okay. That sounds good. And then, just you have a slide toward the back of your deck that shows you kind of return bands and it compares it to the two-year treasury yield. And clearly, that spread has widened the last couple of quarters, which is great. I guess how your do investor partners kind of think about that dynamic? And what type of spread is reasonable? Or are they satisfied with over the two year yield? Like how do you think about that? I would imagine the volatility of returns plays in that as well. But like that -- the interplay between those two variables, like how was that received thought about by your investment partners.

知道了。好的。聽起來很好。然後，你就可以在簡報的後面看到一張投影片，上面顯示了各種回報區間，並將其與兩年期公債殖利率進行比較。顯然，過去幾個季度，這一差距已經擴大，這是好事。我猜你的投資夥伴對這種動態有何看法？什麼類型的價差才是合理的？或者他們對兩年期的殖利率感到滿意嗎？您對此有何看法？我想回報的波動性也會起到一定的作用。但就像那樣——這兩個變數之間的相互作用，就像你的投資夥伴是如何考慮這一點的。

Hey, Reggie, let's see. On the institutional side, it's very much a function or a reference with respect to how the market is in credit. And obviously, when uncertainty is higher is now spreads are wider, and we would then reflect that in our product that we deliver to investors. If you rewind many years before this chart, if you were a wine pre-COVID and sort of like the 2018, 2019 timeframe, base rates were low and spreads were also very tight, and you would have seen a much tighter spread. So I think that spread there is just a reflection of the risk environment, the environment of uncertainty. And that's exactly how it functions in the underlying credit markets as well.

嘿，雷吉，讓我們看看。從機構方面來看，它在很大程度上是有關信貸市場如何運作的功能或參考。顯然，當不確定性較高時，利差就會較大，我們會在提供給投資人的產品中反映這一點。如果您回顧這張圖表之前的許多年，如果您是新冠疫情之前的葡萄酒從業者，並且處於 2018 年、2019 年的時間段，基準利率很低，利差也很小，您會看到利差小得多。所以我認為那裡的利差只是風險環境和不確定性環境的反映。這也正是它在基礎信貸市場中發揮作用的方式。

Got it. And I guess to drill in on that, at where it is today, is that kind of perceived as excess spreads to those guys, like is there alpha in there for them or is that about kind of where your expectations are?

知道了。我想深入研究一下，在今天的狀況下，這是否被視為對這些人來說過度的利差，例如對他們來說是否有阿爾法收益，或者這是否是你的預期？

I mean, their expectations ultimately are around return on equity. The spread is a component of the return on equity. And the spread itself, you think of as -- I mean, I guess, from premium above what you might think of as a risk-free rate or a government rate. In this case, it's the treasury. So the way that this builds is, there is some requirement of spread given the uncertainty of the environment and that results in a certain target ROE and ultimately what we talk about with our counterparties as the ROE.

我的意思是，他們的期望最終是圍繞著股本回報率。利差是股本報酬率的一個組成部分。而利差本身，你可以認為是——我的意思是，我猜，是從高於你所認為的無風險利率或政府利率的溢價產生的。在這種情況下，它是國庫。因此，建立這種機制的方式是，考慮到環境的不確定性，存在一定的利差要求，從而產生一定的目標 ROE，最終就是我們與交易對手談論的 ROE。

Okay. It sounds good. Thank you for taking the questions. Congrats on the quarter.

好的。聽起來不錯。感謝您回答這些問題。恭喜本季取得佳績。

Thank you, Reggie.

謝謝你，雷吉。

Thanks, Reggie.

謝謝，雷吉。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞，指南針點。

All right. Good afternoon and congrats on the quarter. One thing I'm curious about kind of digging into a little bit is -- the first thing is that, obviously, you mixed a bit more towards prime and that's putting pressure on take rate. I'm curious if there's been any real change in the take rate for sub-prime or if it's entirely mix driven?

好的。下午好，恭喜本季取得佳績。我對深入研究的一件事感到好奇——第一件事是，顯然，你混合了更多的東西，這對接受率造成了壓力。我很好奇次級房貸的利率是否發生了真正的變化，或者是否完全是由混合因素驅動的？

And then, related to that, if I think about sales and marketing as a percentage of origination volume, that stayed roughly flat, and I think completely flat at 263 basis points the last few quarters. I would think that if you're mixing more words prime, that would come down to reflect the lower take rate for prime, but I'm curious how we should think about the interplay of those two dynamics.

然後，與此相關，如果我將銷售和行銷視為啟動量的百分比，則該百分比大致保持平穩，並且我認為過去幾個季度完全持平於 263 個基點。我認為，如果你混合使用更多的單字 prime，那麼這將反映出 prime 的較低接受率，但我很好奇我們應該如何看待這兩種動態的相互作用。

Hi, Giuliano. I guess the first question is what's going on with the take rates and maybe the sort of the core or the near-prime segments, I would say they're largely stable. We are doing some, what we call, revenue signs, some origination fee experimentation. And so I guess, on the different parts of the curve, we're maybe going through optimizations and that may have some final impacts, but I think at large, these are relatively stable take rates.

你好，朱利亞諾。我想第一個問題是接受率的情況如何，也許核心或近乎優質的部分的情況如何，我想說它們基本上是穩定的。我們正在做一些我們稱之為收入標誌的事情，一些發起費用實驗。因此我想，在曲線的不同部分，我們可能正在進行優化，這可能會產生一些最終影響，但我認為總的來說，這些都是相對穩定的接受率。

And then, your second question had to do with acquisition costs, I believe, and whether they're very different in the prime space. I don't think they're dramatically different. Our margins are consequently slimmer, which we called out. And as Dave said, I think our distribution programs and our marketing are still at a relatively nascent stage in this sort of relatively new segment for ours so that they're not yet at a place where they're mature. But I think when they are, you'll see something like maybe similar acquisition costs, lower take rates and consequently more modest margins in a more competed space. But also, I guess, important to point out that this is all dollar accretive, right? This is all additional dollars to the bottom line, which is ultimately what we care about.

然後，我認為您的第二個問題與收購成本有關，以及它們在黃金領域是否有很大差異。我認為它們並沒有太大的不同。因此，我們的利潤率變得更低，我們對此表示擔憂。正如戴夫所說，我認為我們的分銷計劃和行銷仍處於相對起步的階段，對我們來說這是一個相對較新的領域，因此它們尚未成熟。但我認為，當它們存在時，你會看到類似的收購成本、更低的接受率，以及在競爭更激烈的領域中更適中的利潤率。但我想，同樣需要指出的是，這一切都是為了增加美元的價值，對吧？這些都是額外的收入，這才是我們最終關心的。

That makes sense. And so you changed the slide around in the presentation at loan performance and the tracking over time. It looks like the 4Q 2024 mentions is coming down a little bit versus Q2. I'm curious if that's because there's a higher mix of primary loans in there or if that's just representative of kind of the core sub-prime or lower credit tier loans?

這很有道理。因此，您在簡報中改變了貸款表現和隨時間推移的追蹤的幻燈片。看起來 2024 年第四季的提及量與第二季相比略有下降。我很好奇，這是因為其中主要貸款的混合比例較高，還是僅僅代表了核心次級貸款或較低信用等級的貸款？

Yeah. That's the main thing going on, which is as you get a higher mix of primary loans, you'll get lower spreads and lower returns. There may be some -- also some normalization. I think that in the Q2 to Q3 vintages, we were probably overperforming our targets and the models will act to recalibrate that over time. But I think the main dynamic is the one you called out.

是的。這是主要的情況，即當你獲得更高比例的主要貸款時，你會獲得更低的利差和更低的回報。可能有一些——也有一些正常化。我認為，在第二季度到第三季度，我們可能超額完成了目標，並且模型會隨著時間的推移重新調整這一點。但我認為主要的動力就是你所說的那個。

That’s very helpful. I appreciate the time, and I’ll jump back in the queue.

這非常有幫助。我很感激您抽出時間，我會重新回到隊列中。

I just want to add a comment. I had gotten a question -- this is Dave. I got a question earlier from Rob about the OnePay Walmart partnership. I misheard him and my answer was referencing the Fortress partnership. So just so it's clear, I don't want any confusion there. I was actually referencing Fortress and if Rob wants to hop in again and re-ask about OnePay Walmart. We're happy to talk about it.

我只是想添加一條評論。我有一個問題——我是戴夫。之前 Rob 向我詢問了有關 OnePay 與沃爾瑪的合作關係的問題。我聽錯了，我的回答是指 Fortress 合作夥伴關係。所以為了清楚起見，我不希望造成任何混淆。我實際上是在參考 Fortress，如果 Rob 想再次加入並重新詢問有關 OnePay Walmart 的情況。我們很高興談論此事。

(Operator Instructions) Matt O'Neill, FT Partners.

（操作員指示）Matt O'Neill，FT Partners。

Yeah, hi. Thanks so much. I think most of the questions were asked and answered. So I'll follow up on Rob's on One Finance Walmart. And in addition, could you just make it clear, is that being accounted for in any of the guidance changes or did that deal have any effect on the guide? Or any other moving pieces to the guide beyond the 1Q results, obviously?

是的，你好。非常感謝。我認為大多數問題都已提出並得到解答。因此，我將跟進 Rob 在 One Finance Walmart 上的表現。此外，您能否明確說明，這是否已在任何指導變更中考慮，或者該交易是否對指導產生了任何影響？或者除了第一季的結果之外，指南中還有其他變動的部分嗎？

Matt, this is Dave. I think we said that this OnePay Walmart agreement, we didn't expect to be materially financial this year. It doesn't mean it can't be. It just means we unable to know that right now because it's very early stage, just launched in the last few weeks. So I certainly think there's upside to it. We're hopeful there's more things we can do beyond the initial phase with them. But it is not today sort of influencing our 2025 guidance.

馬特，這是戴夫。我想我們說過，這項 OnePay Walmart 協議，我們預計今年不會產生實質的財務影響。這並不意味著不可能。這只是意味著我們現在無法知道這一點，因為它還處於非常早期的階段，只是在最近幾週才推出。所以我當然認為它有其好處。我們希望在初始階段之後我們還能與他們做更多的事情。但它目前還不會影響我們 2025 年的指導方針。

Got it. And as far as any other sort of underlying changes, whether it's macro or otherwise? Any other moving pieces to the guide beyond the results being incorporated?

知道了。至於其他類型的底層變化，無論是宏觀的還是其他的？除了納入的結果之外，指南中還有其他可移動的部分嗎？

I think, what we said is we assume the macro doesn't change dramatically one way or the other. We also assume no reduction in Fed rates or no reduction in the underlying rates that tend to fuel the platform. So there's upside and downside in those, but we take what we feel is fairly conservative stance. And we always have confidence that our pipeline of model improvements and technology improvements will lead to growth, and we try to account for them conservatively as well. So I think we feel pretty good to reaffirm and at least modestly raise the guidance that we shared.

我認為，我們所說的是，我們假設宏觀不會發生巨大變化。我們也假設聯準會利率不會降低，或推動該平台發展的底層利率不會降低。因此，這些都有好處和壞處，但我們採取的是我們認為相當保守的立場。我們始終相信，我們的模型改進和技術改進將帶來成長，我們也試圖保守地考慮它們。因此，我認為我們很高興重申並至少適度提高我們所分享的指導。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Hey, guys. Thank for that Dave and thanks for let me back on. I was just curious with respect to OnePay, who controls the underwriting and credit box there, if that's Upstart decision? And if there were any minimum volume commitments or approval rates in the OnePay agreement. Thanks again.

嘿，大家好。謝謝戴夫，也謝謝你讓我回來。我只是對 OnePay 感到好奇，如果這是 Upstart 的決定，誰來控制那裡的承保和信用箱？以及 OnePay 協議中是否有任何最低交易量承諾或批准率。再次感謝。

Hey, Rob. No, it's entirely our business, our model, all the 100-plus banks, credit unions, private credit have exposure to that or can benefit from that borrower flow. So it's fairly perfect. I mean there are people who will get from Walmart that could be 800 FICO and wealthy. There's certainly people that are Middle America. So that's the beauty of our platform. And I think one of the reasons we have that agreement is that we can serve a very, very broad swath of America with the products and the diversity of the marketplace structure that we have. And so I think the timing works out perfectly with this whole notion of best rate for everybody.

嘿，羅布。不，這完全是我們的業務、我們的模式，所有 100 多家銀行、信用合作社、私人信貸機構都接觸過該業務，或可以從借款人流動中受益。所以它是相當完美的。我的意思是，有些人從沃爾瑪購物，他們的 FICO 信用評分可能有 800，而且很富有。當然也有來自美國中部的人。這就是我們平台的優點。我認為我們達成該協議的原因之一是，我們可以利用我們的產品和多樣化的市場結構為美國廣大地區提供服務。所以我認為，這個為每個人提供最佳利率的理念時機恰到好處。

Got it. Thanks. And just quick, do you share any economics back with OnePay, maybe like take rate or anything like that?

知道了。謝謝。簡單說一下，能否分享一下 OnePay 的經濟狀況，例如收費率或類似的東西？

Well, for sure. They have a financial interest in it. I mean, they're kind of bringing a customer to us. So there is some share, but we feel very good about the economics and the agreement. I think it is definitely a win-win for them, for us, for their customers. So very excited about the partnership.

嗯，當然了。他們對此有經濟利益。我的意思是，他們正在為我們帶來客戶。因此存在一些份額，但我們對經濟和協議感到非常滿意。我認為這對他們、對我們、對他們的客戶來說絕對是雙贏的。我對這次合作感到非常興奮。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, that was the end of our question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back to Dave for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給戴夫，請他作結語。

Thanks, everybody, for joining. We're actually really pleased with the progress that we've had so far in 2025. And I think the rest of the year might be even more exciting. So we'll see many of you at AI Day next week in New York, and I hope that many others will be joining us via streaming if you can find the time in your day to do that. If you really want to really understand what we're building in Upstart, I think AI day will be super fun and an informative event. Thanks again for joining us.

謝謝大家的參與。事實上，我們對 2025 年迄今的進展感到非常滿意。我認為今年剩餘的時間可能會更加令人興奮。因此，我們將在下週於紐約舉行的人工智慧日上見到你們中的許多人，並且我希望，如果你們有時間的話，許多其他人可以透過串流媒體加入我們。如果你真的想真正了解我們在 Upstart 中建立的內容，我認為 AI 日將會非常有趣並且是一個資訊豐富的活動。再次感謝您的加入。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Goodbye

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。再見