Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Upstart second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Cynthia Moon, Lead Corporate and Securities Counsel.

這次，我想將會議交給首席企業和證券法律顧問辛西婭·穆恩 (Cynthia Moon)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's second-quarter 2024 financial results.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 的 2024 年第二季財務業績。

With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

參加今天電話會議的有 Upstart 執行長 Dave Girouard；以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second-quarter 2024 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布其 2024 年第二季度財務業績，並發布了投資者關係簡報。

Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter of 2024 and the second half of 2024 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們的業務相關的 2024 年第三季和 2024 年下半年的指引以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。

These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions.

這些陳述是基於我們目前的預期和截至目前可獲得的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC.

由於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。

As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

因此，我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們的業績參考均以非公認會計準則財務指標的形式提供，並與我們的公認會計準則業績進行了調整，這些結果可以在收益發布和補充表格中找到。

(Event Instructions) Next week, on August 15, Upstart will be participating in the Needham Fintech and Digital Transformation Conference.

【活動說明】下週，也就是8月15日，Upstart將參加Needham金融科技與數位轉型大會。

On September 12, Upstart will participate in B. Riley Securities Consumer and TMT Conference.

9月12日，Upstart將參加B.Riley Securities消費者與TMT大會。

Now we'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我們想把它交給 Upstart 執行長 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart.

我是戴夫·吉魯亞德 (Dave Girouard)，Upstart 的共同創辦人兼執行長。

Thanks for joining us on our earnings call covering our second-quarter 2024 results.

感謝您參加我們的財報電話會議，介紹我們 2024 年第二季的業績。

I've said many times over the last couple of years that I've never lost an ounce of faith or optimism in the future of Upstart, and today you can begin to see why.

在過去的幾年裡，我曾多次說過，我對 Upstart 的未來從未失去過一絲信心或樂觀態度，今天你就可以開始明白其中的原因了。

I'm proud and thankful for the incredible work done by Upstarters in the last two years to build a stronger and better company on so many dimensions.

我對 Upstarters 在過去兩年中為在多個方面打造更強大、更好的公司所做的令人難以置信的工作感到自豪和感激。

The numbers and guidance we released today demonstrate that we're turning a corner.

我們今天發布的數字和指導表明我們正在扭轉局面。

We've made real progress toward returning to sequential growth and EBITDA profitability, and, I believe, toward resuming our role once again as the fintech known for high growth and healthy margins.

我們在恢復環比增長和 EBITDA 盈利能力方面取得了真正的進展，我相信，我們在再次恢復以高增長和健康利潤率聞名的金融科技角色方面取得了真正的進展。

We've also rebuilt our funding supply by locking in important long-term funding partnerships and significantly reducing the use of our balance sheet to fund loans.

我們還透過鎖定重要的長期融資合作夥伴關係並大幅減少使用資產負債表為貸款融資來重建我們的融資供應。

We expect this trend of reduced loan funding from our balance sheet will continue through the remainder of 2024.

我們預計資產負債表中貸款資金減少的趨勢將持續到 2024 年剩餘時間。

But this progress is not due to any dramatic improvements in macroeconomic factors or risk.

但這項進展並不是由於宏觀經濟因素或風險的顯著改善。

Any such macro wins remain in our future.

任何此類宏觀勝利仍然存在於我們的未來。

Rather, our progress is the result of the dedicated efforts of more than 1,200 Upstarters.

相反，我們的進步是1200多名Upstarters努力的結果。

The improvements that are evident in our business today are coming from inside the house: first, significant and even dramatic AI model wins; second, a revamped and revitalized funding supply; and third, increased operating efficiency.

我們今天業務中明顯的改進來自內部：首先，人工智慧模型取得了重大甚至戲劇性的勝利；第二，改革和振興資金供應；三是運作效率提高。

These wins and more are providing the foundation for the Upstart comeback story that I expect we'll share with you in the quarters and years to come.

這些勝利以及更多的勝利為新貴的捲土重來奠定了基礎，我希望我們將在未來的季度和幾年與您分享這個故事。

Today, I'll provide some insights to these major initiatives and how they're building on the progress we've made in recent months.

今天，我將對這些重大舉措以及它們如何在我們近幾個月取得的進展的基礎上再接再厲，提供一些見解。

We continue to focus the majority of our efforts on our core personal loan product, where the opportunity for leadership in a fast-growing category is clear.

我們繼續將大部分精力集中在我們的核心個人貸款產品上，在快速成長的類別中佔據領導地位的機會是顯而易見的。

Our product today is far superior to what we offered two years ago in all the dimensions that matter.

我們今天的產品在所有重要方面都遠遠優於我們兩年前提供的產品。

Model accuracy, fraud detection, automation, funding resiliency, acquisition costs, and revenue optimization are leaps and bounds better than they were in 2022.

模型準確性、詐欺偵測、自動化、融資彈性、收購成本和收入優化比 2022 年有了飛躍的進步。

Most importantly, I'm thrilled to share that we very recently launched one of the largest and most impactful improvements to our core credit pricing model in our history.

最重要的是，我很高興與大家分享，我們最近對我們的核心信貸定價模型發起了歷史上最大、最具影響力的改進之一。

In fact, with this launch, 18% of all accuracy gains in this model since our inception have been delivered by our ML team in the last 12 months.

事實上，隨著此次發布，自我們成立以來該模型的所有準確率提升的 18% 都是由我們的 ML 團隊在過去 12 個月內實現的。

To dive a bit further, Model 18, or M18 as we call it internally, is the first to incorporate APR as a feature or as an input to the model.

更進一步來說，Model 18（我們內部稱為 M18）是第一個將 APR 納入模型特徵或輸入的模型。

It's of course common to think of APR as an output of a risk model, at least indirectly.

當然，人們通常將年利率視為風險模型的輸出，至少是間接的。

But we know empirically that the APR also affects the repayment risk of a loan.

但我們根據經驗知道，年利率也會影響貸款的還款風險。

All else being equal, a higher APR will select for a riskier borrower, a notion known as adverse selection.

在其他條件相同的情況下，較高的年利率將選擇風險較高的借款人，這種概念稱為逆向選擇。

Conversely, a lower APR will select for a less risky borrower.

相反，較低的年利率將選擇風險較低的借款人。

If you have a background in computer science or math, you quickly realize that having APR as both an input and output to the same model presents some challenges.

如果您具有電腦科學或數學背景，您很快就會意識到將 APR 作為相同模型的輸入和輸出會帶來一些挑戰。

Solving this problem requires running our risk models many times in parallel to arrive at the appropriate answer.

解決這個問題需要多次並行運行我們的風險模型才能得出適當的答案。

In fact, M18 generates approximately 1 million predictions for each applicant in order to converge to the correct APR, which is six times the number of predictions of the prior model, and we believe the improvement in accuracy is well worth it.

事實上，M18 為每個申請人產生大約 100 萬個預測，以便收斂到正確的 APR，這是先前模型預測數量的六倍，我們相信準確性的提高是非常值得的。

Additionally, I'm very happy to report that we expect M18 to substantially improve our funnel conversion rate.

此外，我很高興地向大家報告，我們預計 M18 將大幅提高我們的通路轉換率。

From a competitive standpoint, I believe that significant technical obstacles, such as the one I've described here, are themselves a clear sign of progress.

從競爭的角度來看，我相信重大的技術障礙（例如我在這裡描述的障礙）本身就是進步的明顯標誌。

We're pushing the boundaries of computing and AI to build more accurate models, and we've seen few signs that peers in the lending space are far enough along the path of AI-based modeling to even encounter these technical challenges.

我們正在突破計算和人工智慧的界限，以建立更準確的模型，而且我們幾乎沒有看到任何跡象表明貸款領域的同行在基於人工智慧的建模道路上走得足夠遠，甚至能夠遇到這些技術挑戰。

We also reached another all-time high on automation of our core unsecured loan product, with 91% of loans in Q2 fully automated.

我們的核心無擔保貸款產品的自動化程度也再創歷史新高，第二季 91% 的貸款完全自動化。

As a reminder, this means no documents, no phone calls, no waiting, and no human involvement whatsoever.

提醒一下，這意味著沒有文件，沒有電話，沒有等待，也沒有任何人為參與。

Two years ago, this number was 73%, and we weren't sure reaching 90% was even possible.

兩年前，這個數字是 73%，我們甚至不確定是否有可能達到 90%。

Driving automated approvals up while keeping fraud to minimal levels is an obvious fit for AI, so we would expect Upstart to continue to lead on this front.

推動自動化審批，同時​​將詐欺行為控制在最低水平，這顯然適合人工智慧，因此我們預計 Upstart 將繼續在這方面處於領先地位。

And automation isn't just a win for cost and efficiency, it also provides the foundation of a fundamentally better product for the consumer.

自動化不僅是成本和效率的勝利，它還為為消費者提供更好的產品奠定了基礎。

Ultimately our strategy is to offer the best rates and the best process to all, for every credit product that matters.

最終，我們的策略是為每個重要的信貸產品提供最優惠的利率和最佳流程。

This means continuing to expand our platform to auto loans, small-dollar relief loans, and home equity lines of credit.

這意味著繼續將我們的平台擴展到汽車貸款、小額救濟貸款和房屋淨值信貸額度。

And we're making great strides in each of these products.

我們在每項產品上都取得了長足的進步。

In Q2, our auto team released new underwriting models for both our auto retail and refinance products as well as a new fraud model for auto retail.

第二季度，我們的汽車團隊發布了汽車零售和再融資產品的新承保模型以及汽車零售的新詐欺模型。

We've now seen multiple months of calibrated loan performance and are growing confident that our loans are performant and increasingly competitive in the market.

我們現在已經看到了幾個月的校準貸款績效，並且越來越有信心我們的貸款表現良好並且在市場上的競爭力越來越強。

In the interest of continuing to move our auto business to profitability, we increased the monthly fee we charge each dealership for the use of our software.

為了繼續推動我們的汽車業務獲利，我們提高了向每個經銷商收取的使用我們軟體的月費。

Despite this, we believe we're still quite inexpensive relative to competitive offerings.

儘管如此，我們相信相對於競爭產品我們的價格仍然相當便宜。

We're also investing heavily in servicing and recovery for auto and saw a 33% improvement in roll rates and a 44% increase in recovery rates in the second quarter alone.

我們也大力投資汽車維修和回收，光是第二季度，翻滾率就提高了 33%，回收率提高了 44%。

And our small-dollar relief product continues to grow rapidly, with 57% sequential growth in the number of loans in the second quarter.

我們的小額救助產品持續快速成長，第二季貸款數量較上季增加 57%。

Our intention with this product is to expand access to bank quality credit rather than to generate enormous profits.

我們推出該產品的目的是擴大獲得銀行優質信貸的機會，而不是產生巨額利潤。

Nonetheless, I'm thrilled to say that in Q2, SDL became our second product to reach break-even economics.

儘管如此，我很高興地說，在第二季度，SDL 成為我們第二個實現盈虧平衡的產品。

We also signed our first warehouse for SDL this past quarter.

上個季度我們也為 SDL 簽署了第一個倉庫協議。

For the current quarter, we've identified opportunities to reduce the variable cost of these loans by more than 40%, which would represent another incredible win and an opportunity to increase approval rates further.

在本季度，我們發現了將這些貸款的可變成本降低 40% 以上的機會，這將代表著另一個令人難以置信的勝利，也是進一步提高批准率的機會。

Overall, this team continues to execute like pros and is helping Upstart expand its impact on the American consumer rapidly and responsibly.

總體而言，該團隊繼續像專業人士一樣執行任務，並正在幫助 Upstart 快速、負責任地擴大對美國消費者的影響力。

As of today, our home equity line of credit is available in 30 states, covering 51% of the US population.

截至目前，我們的房屋淨值信貸額度已覆蓋 30 個州，覆蓋美國 51% 的人口。

We exited Q2 with an instant approval rate for HELOC applicants of 42%, up from 36% in Q1.

第二季結束時，HELOC 申請人的即時核准率為 42%，高於第一季的 36%。

This means we're able to instantly verify applicants' income and identity without the need for tedious document uploads.

這意味著我們能夠立即驗證申請人的收入和身份，而無需繁瑣的文件上傳。

Consistent with our experience in personal loans, instantly approved applicants convert almost twice as often as other applicants.

根據我們在個人貸款方面的經驗，立即獲得批准的申請人的轉換率幾乎是其他申請人的兩倍。

With respect to credit performance of our HELOCs, things couldn't be better.

就我們 HELOC 的信用表現而言，情況再好不過了。

With more than 300 HELOCs originated, we have zero defaults to date.

我們發起了 300 多個 HELOC，迄今為止違約是零。

Finally, we've seen significant interest from Upstart's bank and credit union partners in our HELOC product and hope to launch our first lending partnership before the end of the year.

最後，我們看到 Upstart 的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴對我們的 HELOC 產品表現出濃厚的興趣，並希望在今年年底之前啟動我們的第一個貸款合作夥伴關係。

We continue to invest enormously in servicing and collections.

我們繼續在服務和收藏方面進行大量投資。

To give you a sense of this, in the last two years we've tripled the number of Upstarters on our servicing product and engineering teams.

為了讓您感受到這一點，在過去兩年中，我們的服務產品和工程團隊中的新貴數量增加了兩倍。

And this investment is paying off.

這項投資正在得到回報。

We've made it radically easier for borrowers to make payments in whatever way works for them.

我們使借款人能夠以任何適合他們的方式付款變得更加容易。

We've implemented new channels for reaching borrowers who are delinquent.

我們實施了新的管道來接觸拖欠借款人。

These efforts and more have helped drive delinquency rates down by 16% year over year and have helped reduce support costs per current loan by 30%.

這些努力以及其他措施幫助拖欠率年減了 16%，並將每筆當前貸款的支持成本降低了 30%。

We've also now increased the number of borrowers enrolled in autopay for 36 consecutive weeks.

我們現在也連續 36 週增加了登記自動轉帳的借款人數量。

Much of our team's efforts to date have prepared our servicing infrastructure for the deployment of AI models that we believe will enable us to build a significantly differentiated loan-servicing capability.

迄今為止，我們團隊的大部分工作已經為部署人工智慧模型準備了服務基礎設施，我們相信這將使我們能夠建立顯著差異化的貸款服務能力。

Two years ago, we told you that we would upgrade the funding supply on the Upstart platform.

兩年前，我們就告訴大家，我們將升級Upstart平台的資金供應。

We aimed to move a significant portion of our funding from at-will monthly agreements to longer term committed partnerships.

我們的目標是將很大一部分資金從隨意的每月協議轉移到長期承諾的合作夥伴關係。

Given the importance and complexity of these relationships, we cautioned that this would take some time.

鑑於這些關係的重要性和複雜性，我們警告這需要一些時間。

I'm pleased to share that we've now accomplished this goal.

我很高興地告訴大家，我們現在已經實現了這個目標。

We ended Q2 with well over half of the institutional funding on our platform coming from committed capital and other co-investment partnerships.

截至第二季度，我們平台上超過一半的機構資金來自承諾資本和其他共同投資夥伴關係。

We began with the announcement of our first partnership with Castlelake 15 months ago.

15 個月前，我們宣布與 Castlelake 建立首次合作夥伴關係。

This partnership has since been renewed.

此後，這種夥伴關係得到了延續。

We've since added significant partnerships with Ares and Centerbridge.

此後，我們與 Ares 和 Centerbridge 建立了重要的合作夥伴關係。

Other institutional investors that have been with us for much longer have also returned to the platform.

其他與我們合作時間較長的機構投資者也回到了這個平台。

We continue to pursue additional opportunities to broaden and deepen our funding supply as Upstart returns to growth mode.

隨著 Upstart 回歸成長模式，我們將繼續尋求更多機會來擴大和深化我們的融資供應。

We also said back then that we'd use our own balance sheet as a transitional bridge to this better state.

我們當時也說過，我們將利用自己的資產負債表作為通往更好狀態的過渡橋樑。

You can see from the numbers we released today that we've begun to reduce the use of our balance sheet to fund loans.

從我們今天發布的數據中可以看出，我們已經開始減少使用資產負債表來為貸款提供資金。

We're hopeful this will continue through the rest of the year, though I'd like to always reserve the option to use our balance sheet to do the right thing for our business.

我們希望這種情況能夠持續到今年剩餘時間，儘管我希望始終保留使用我們的資產負債表為我們的業務做正確的事情的選擇。

I'm also pleased to report that banks and credit unions continue to return to the Upstart platform.

我還很高興地報告，銀行和信用合作社繼續回歸 Upstart 平台。

We've signed eight new lenders since Q1.

自第一季以來，我們已與八家新貸款機構簽約。

Performance and lender demand on the platform are creating a competitive environment which is beginning to reduce prices for Upstart borrowers.

該平台的性能和貸方需求正在創造一個競爭環境，這開始降低新貴借款人的價格。

In fact, lenders representing about half of the monthly available funding on Upstart from lenders have reduced their target returns recently as their liquidity has improved and their demand for loans has increased.

事實上，由於流動性改善和貸款需求增加，佔 Upstart 每月可用資金約一半的貸方最近降低了目標回報。

This is the first time in two years that we've seen loan prices drop on Upstart.

這是兩年來我們首次看到 Upstart 的貸款價格下降。

For many reasons, transforming credit with AI is complex and challenging.

由於多種原因，利用人工智慧改變信用是複雜且具有挑戰性的。

Tackling the world's most entrenched problems with AI is difficult and it doesn't happen overnight.

要利用人工智慧解決世界上最根深蒂固的問題非常困難，而且不可能一蹴可幾。

But to those who ultimately solve these problems, there comes a tremendous reward.

但對於那些最終解決這些問題的人來說，將會獲得巨大的回報。

Today we're tackling problems that we weren't even aware of a couple years ago.

今天，我們正在解決幾年前我們甚至沒有意識到的問題。

My perspective is that, top to bottom, we've gone through a significant reinvention of the company, both from a technology and business model perspective.

我的觀點是，從技術和商業模式的角度來看，我們從上到下對公司進行了重大改造。

We're confident we're on the right track and making rapid progress.

我們相信我們正走在正確的軌道上並取得快速進展。

And this is just beginning to show in our financials.

這才剛開始在我們的財務數據中反映出來。

Despite the fact that many trillions of dollars in credit are originated each year, our competition in AI is scarce.

儘管每年產生數萬億美元的信貸，但我們在人工智慧領域的競爭卻很少。

In generative AI, you have a significant number of well-funded and talented competitors, such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Meta at the cutting edge of model building.

在生成人工智慧領域，有大量資金雄厚、才華橫溢的競爭對手，例如處於模型構建前沿的 OpenAI、Google、Anthropic 和 Meta。

In AI for lending, you have Upstart.

在人工智慧貸款領域，你有暴發戶。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 2024 financial results and guidance.

現在我想將其交給我們的財務長 Sanjay，讓他詳細介紹我們的 2024 年第二季財務表現和指導。

Sanjay?

桑傑？

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Good afternoon to all, and thank you for joining us.

大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。

A notable topic for us over the past few quarters has been the macro climate and its impact on both consumer spend and credit loss.

過去幾季我們值得注意的一個主題是宏觀氣候及其對消費者支出和信貸損失的影響。

The stimuli of 2020 and early 2021 left consumers flush with cash, and, in retrospect, unleashed a two-year-plus surge of consumption as consumers plunge to new elevated spending habits well beyond the duration of the stimulus and in our view, also beyond our collective means.

2020 年和2021 年初的刺激措施讓消費者手頭充裕，回想起來，隨著​​消費者在刺激措施持續時間之外、在我們看來，也超出了刺激措施的持續時間，消費者開始養成新的高消費習慣，因而引發了兩年多的消費激增。

These trends were, of course, exacerbated by punishing price inflation.

當然，懲罰性的物價通膨加劇了這些趨勢。

This inflation, which also had its roots in the post-COVID monetary expansion, appears to have mostly run its course as we had anticipated for much of the past year.

這種通貨膨脹也根源於新冠疫情後的貨幣擴張，目前看來已基本如我們在過去一年的大部分時間所預期的那樣發展下去。

We now also see signs that the venerable American consumer is reluctantly waving the white flag, acting to moderate outlays and rebalance budgets.

我們現在也看到有跡象表明，受人尊敬的美國消費者正在不情願地揮舞白旗，採取行動控制支出並重新平衡預算。

Consumption of goods, both durable and nondurable, has actually been falling in real terms over the course of this year.

今年以來，耐用品和非耐用品的消費實際上一直在下降。

Spending on services has continued to rise, but half this increase over the past year is attributable to skyrocketing healthcare expenditures.

服務支出持續成長，但過去一年成長的一半歸因於醫療保健支出的飆升。

Many other subcategories of services consumption growth in our economy have also started to abate.

我們經濟中許多其他子類別的服務消費成長也開始減弱。

To be unambiguous, we believe this is a welcome development for the American economy, which has been on an unsustainable tear over this broader period of time.

明確地說，我們認為這對美國經濟來說是一個值得歡迎的發展，美國經濟在更廣泛的時期內一直處於不可持續的狀態。

One product of improving fiscal health is that we are seeing credit default trends finally turn a corner, having peaked in aggregate sometime earlier this year and now inflecting back down towards prior lower levels.

財政健康狀況改善的一個結果是，我們看到信用違約趨勢終於出現拐點，在今年早些時候的某個時候總體達到頂峰，現在又回落至之前的較低水平。

This dynamic is reflected in our declining Upstart Macro Index, which has now unambiguously fallen for three consecutive months and has reached its lowest level since January of 2023.

這種動態反映在我們不斷下降的新貴宏觀指數中，該指數現已連續三個月大幅下降，並已達到 2023 年 1 月以來的最低水準。

This downward traveling UMI is now a consistent pattern across all borrower segments that we can observe.

這種向下移動的 UMI 現在是我們可以觀察到的所有借款人群體的一致模式。

While the mobile US borrower continues their rehabilitation, we also note ongoing improvement in the funding markets, both on the institutional side as well as in the banking and credit union sectors.

在美國流動借款人繼續康復的同時，我們也注意到融資市場的持續改善，無論是機構方面還是銀行和信用合作社領域。

For the second consecutive quarter, we've increased the number of lenders who are active on our platform and have observed reductions in required rates of return.

我們連續第二季增加了活躍在我們平台上的貸方數量，並且觀察到所需回報率有所下降。

On the institutional side, we have now renewed all of our committed capital deals from last year and are currently in the process of adding new partners to the program in anticipation of future borrower growth.

在機構方面，我們現在已經更新了去年所有承諾的資本交易，目前正在為該計劃添加新的合作夥伴，以預測未來借款人的成長。

One such recent example is the new agreement we've completed with Centerbridge, a leading global alternative investment firm, by which they acquired $400 million of our personal loans.

最近的一個例子是我們與全球領先的另類投資公司 Centerbridge 達成的新協議，他們透過該協議收購了我們 4 億美元的個人貸款。

We are seeing early signs of funding progress in some of our newer products as well.

我們也看到了一些新產品融資進展的早期跡象。

We have secured financing to continue scaling up our auto and small-dollar loan offerings and expect to complete our first forward flow sale of HELOC loans in the coming days.

我們已獲得融資以繼續擴大我們的汽車和小額貸款業務，並預計在未來幾天內完成我們的首次 HELOC 貸款遠期流動銷售。

These collective funding efforts have allowed us to reduce the overall size of our balance sheet and store up some dry powder in support of any future growth and new product development needs.

這些集體融資努力使我們能夠縮小資產負債表的整體規模，並儲備一些乾粉以支持未來的成長和新產品開發需求。

With this macro environment as backdrop, here are some financial highlights from the second quarter of 2024.

在此宏觀環境的背景下，以下是 2024 年第二季的一些財務亮點。

Revenue from fees was $131 million in Q2, down 9% from the prior year, as higher pricing for prime loans created downward pressure on origination volumes.

第二季的收費收入為 1.31 億美元，比上年下降 9%，原因是優質貸款定價上漲給發放量帶來了下行壓力。

Net interest income was negative $3 million, an improvement both year on year and sequentially as the larger-than-typical core loan balance sheet we were carrying until late in the quarter produced income, which helped to offset excess loss in our R&D portfolio.

淨利息收入為負300 萬美元，同比和環比均有所改善，因為我們直到本季度末為止所持有的大於典型的核心貸款資產負債表產生了收入，這有助於抵消我們研發投資組合的超額損失。

Taken together, net revenue for Q2 came in at $128 million, $3 million above our guidance, but down 6% year on year.

總的來說，第二季的淨收入為 1.28 億美元，比我們的指引高出 300 萬美元，但年減 6%。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 144,000 loans, up 31% from the prior year and up 21% sequentially and representing over 89,000 new borrowers.

第二季度我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 144,000 筆貸款，比上年增長 31%，比上一季增長 21%，代表超過 89,000 名新借款人。

Average loan size of $7,700 was down from $9,500 in the prior quarter, driven lower by continuing robust growth in small-dollar loans as well as by pressure from higher pricing on prime loans, which tend to run larger than average.

平均貸款規模為 7,700 美元，低於上一季的 9,500 美元，原因是小美元貸款持續強勁增長以及優質貸款定價上漲帶來的壓力（優質貸款往往高於平均水平）。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees, minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 58% in Q2, flat sequentially and 2 percentage points above our guidance for the quarter.

我們的貢獻利潤率是一項非GAAP 指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本佔費用收入的百分比，第二季度為58%，與上一季度持平，下降了2%點高於我們本季的指引。

We continue to benefit from very high levels of loan processing automation, with our eighth consecutive quarterly improvement in percentage of loans fully automated, resulting in a new high of 91%.

我們繼續受益於極高水準的貸款處理自動化，完全自動化的貸款百分比連續第八個季度提高，達到 91% 的新高。

Operating expenses were $183 million in Q2, down 6% sequentially from Q1 as the workforce restructuring we underwent yielded lower payroll costs across all of our functions.

第二季的營運費用為 1.83 億美元，比第一季下降 6%，因為我們進行的勞動力重組降低了所有職能部門的工資成本。

These savings were somewhat offset by the impact that higher loan volumes and smaller loan sizes are having on our loan processing costs.

這些節省在一定程度上被較高的貸款量和較小的貸款規模對我們的貸款處理成本的影響所抵消。

Altogether, Q2 GAAP net loss was $54 million and adjusted EBITDA was negative $9 million, both comfortably ahead of guidance and encouraging proof points on our path back to profitability.

總體而言，第二季 GAAP 淨虧損為 5,400 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為負 900 萬美元，兩者都明顯領先於指引，並為我們恢復盈利之路提供了令人鼓舞的證據。

Adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.17 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 88 million.

根據 8,800 萬股稀釋加權平均股數計算，調整後每股盈餘為負 0.17 美元。

We ended the second quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $686 million before the consolidation of securitized loans, down from $924 million in the prior quarter.

截至第二季末，在證券化貸款合併之前，我們資產負債表上的貸款為 6.86 億美元，低於上一季的 9.24 億美元。

Of that balance, loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally auto loans, stood at $396 million.

其中，用於研發的貸款（主要是汽車貸款）為 3.96 億美元。

In addition to loans held directly, we have consolidated $135 million of loans from an ABS transaction completed in 2023 from which we retained a total net equity exposure of $21 million.

除了直接持有的貸款外，我們還合併了 2023 年完成的 ABS 交易中的 1.35 億美元貸款，其中我們保留了 2,100 萬美元的淨股權曝險總額。

We ended the quarter with $375 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and approximately $449 million in net loan equity at fair value.

截至本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 3.75 億美元的不受限制的現金，以公允價值計算的淨貸款權益約為 4.49 億美元。

We have long maintained that once the macro environment ceases to be a headwind, we'll have the opportunity to generate conversion growth through improvements to our models and acquisition campaigns.

我們長期以來一直認為，一旦宏觀環境不再成為不利因素，我們將有機會透過改進我們的模型和收購活動來實現轉換成長。

With loss rates that have now collectively appeared to plateau, this is precisely what we are expecting for the duration of this year.

由於損失率目前已整體趨於穩定，這正是我們對今年的預期。

Last quarter, this nascent trend gave us the foundation to provide guidance for the back half of the year, which was based on an assumption that our model gains would deliver their historical pace of growth.

上個季度，這一新生趨勢為我們為下半年提供指導奠定了基礎，這是基於我們的模型收益將實現歷史成長速度的假設。

Our model launches since that time have in fact produced enough uplift to put us ahead of schedule.

事實上，自那時以來我們推出的車型已經產生了足夠的提升，使我們提前完成了計劃。

Note that despite our relative optimism on the macro climate as it relates to credit performance, our guidance for the rest of the year in no way relies on either further improvement to the macro environment nor on falling interest rates.

請注意，儘管我們對與信貸表現相關的宏觀環境相對樂觀，但我們對今年剩餘時間的指導絕不依賴宏觀環境的進一步改善或利率下降。

Either of those eventualities, should they occur, would likely show up as tailwinds to our forecast.

這兩種可能性中的任何一種，如果發生的話，都可能成為我們預測的有利因素。

With that in mind, for Q3 of 2024, we are currently expecting total revenues of approximately $150 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $155 million and net interest income of approximately negative $5 million, contribution margin of approximately 57%, net income of approximately negative $49 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $14 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately negative $5 million, and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 90 million shares.

考慮到這一點，我們目前預計2024 年第三季的總收入約為1.5 億美元，其中費用收入為1.55 億美元，淨利息收入約為負500 萬美元，貢獻率約為57%，淨利潤約為負4900萬美元，調整後淨利潤約為負1400萬美元，調整後EBITDA約為負500萬美元，攤薄加權平均股數約9000萬股。

For the second half of 2024, we expect revenue from fees of approximately $320 million and positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4.

2024 年下半年，我們預期第四季的收費收入約為 3.2 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為正值。

Overall, we would like to say that we feel good about how we've managed financially through this challenging period.

總的來說，我們想說，我們對度過這段充滿挑戰的時期的財務管理方式感到滿意。

We emerged with expanded margins and a reduced cost base, underpinning the tangible progress we've made on the road back to profitability, and successfully reimagining our funding model has created a more resilient capital base and a shrinking balance sheet.

我們的利潤率擴大了，成本基礎降低了，這支撐了我們在恢復盈利的道路上取得的切實進展，並成功地重新構想了我們的融資模式，創造了更具彈性的資本基礎和不斷縮小的資產負債表。

More importantly, we are optimistic about the strength and direction of the business as we look ahead.

更重要的是，我們對未來業務的實力和方向感到樂觀。

While we are wary of prematurely sounding the all clear, the macro no longer appears to be a direct impediment to our business.

儘管我們對過早宣布一切解除持謹慎態度，但宏觀經濟似乎不再是我們業務的直接障礙。

An improving macro climate is not contemplated in our forward numbers and it's not something we need in order to thrive.

我們的前瞻性數據並未考慮到宏觀氣候的改善，這也不是我們繁榮發展所需要的。

But if and when that does materialize, it should be wind in our sales.

但如果這真的成為現實，那應該會成為我們銷售的風向標。

I would like to conclude by acknowledging the entire Upstart team for persevering together through this long metaphorical winter and also to all of our departed teammates who have been a part of the cause, even if they are no longer able to.

最後，我要感謝整個 Upstart 團隊在這個漫長的隱喻性冬天中堅持不懈，並感謝我們所有已故的隊友，他們一直是這項事業的一部分，即使他們不再能夠這樣做。

I'm looking forward to a time in the near future when we all will have to refasten our seatbelts.

我期待在不久的將來我們所有人都必須重新繫上安全帶。

With that, Dave and I are happy to open the call up to any questions.

至此，戴夫和我很樂意透過電話解答任何問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Mihir Bhatia，美國銀行。

I wanted to start by just asking if you could comment a little bit more about just the intra-quarter trend than what you saw in July.

首先我想問一下您是否可以對季度內的趨勢發表比您在 7 月看到的情況更多的評論。

It sounds like you're quite positive on the back half of the year.

聽起來你對今年下半年相當樂觀。

And maybe if you could just comment a little bit on what you saw both in terms of loan demand and also just credit performance as you went through the months in the quarter and to the extent you're willing to about July.

也許您可以就您在本季的幾個月中所看到的貸款需求和信貸表現以及您願意的 7 月份的情況發表一些評論。

Great to hear from you.

很高興收到你的來信。

So you're asking about credit trends and loan trends in July?

那麼您是在詢問 7 月的信貸趨勢和貸款趨勢嗎？

And through the quarter, month by month in the quarter.

並貫穿整個季度、每季的每個月。

Like, did loan demand accelerate?

例如，貸款需求是否加速了？

Did you see more demand in June than April?

您是否發現 6 月的需求比 4 月更多？

I see.

我懂了。

I mean, at a high level, I guess, to the extent you can hear optimism both in our guide and in our comments, it's probably reflective of a quarter that obviously is leading into Q3 on a good footing and a positive trajectory.

我的意思是，我想，在較高的層面上，您可以在我們的指南和評論中聽到樂觀情緒，這可能反映出一個季度明顯以良好的基礎和積極的軌跡進入第三季度。

And to the extent that we are guiding Q3 on an upward trajectory, I would say that July is representative of that as well.

就我們引導第三季走上上升軌道而言，我想說七月也代表了這一點。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just switching a little bit to the expense structure a little bit more.

然後也許只是稍微改變一下費用結構。

What I'm really trying to understand is the fixed versus variable cost of the model.

我真正想了解的是模型的固定成本與變動成本。

So as top line expands, what kind of impact will that have on profitability?

那麼，隨著收入的擴大，這會對獲利能力產生什麼樣的影響？

And how much should we expect to drop to the bottom line versus maybe you reinvest in growth or product expansion or additional growth.

與您對成長或產品擴張或額外成長的再投資相比，我們應該期望利潤下降多少。

How should we be thinking about that equation?

我們該如何思考這個等式？

In rough terms, as the business expands, I would expect our contribution margins, which really capture our variable cost base, to shrink somewhat, mainly due to reductions in take rates.

粗略地說，隨著業務的擴展，我預計我們的邊際貢獻率（真正反映了我們的可變成本基礎）會縮小，這主要是由於採用率的下降。

As the business becomes more profitable, we will probably invest more in volume and in lifetime value.

隨著業務變得更加有利可圖，我們可能會在數量和生命週期價值上進行更多投資。

I think the cost components of our contribution margin should be fairly consistent because we essentially attempt to originate up to the point of marginal cost breakeven, and I don't think those points will dramatically change as we scale.

我認為我們邊際貢獻的成本組成部分應該相當一致，因為我們本質上是試圖達到邊際成本損益平衡點，而且我認為這些點不會隨著我們規模的擴大而發生巨大變化。

As for the fixed cost base, well, the intention is that it will grow slower than the top line of this business, meaning we should achieve operating leverage as the business scales.

至於固定成本基礎，目的是使其成長速度慢於該業務的營收，這意味著我們應該隨著業務規模的擴大而實現營運槓桿。

And so between those two, I think that scale should drop pretty efficiently to the bottom line as we rescale.

因此，在這兩者之間，我認為當我們重新調整規模時，規模應該會非常有效地下降到底線。

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

拉姆齊·阿薩爾，巴克萊銀行。

The conversion rate increased quarter over quarter and obviously a lot more year over year.

轉化率逐季上升，而且年比明顯更高。

I know you mentioned some pretty exciting model improvements.

我知道您提到了一些非常令人興奮的模型改進。

I guess, what should we expect on conversion rate for the next couple of quarters?

我想，我們對接下來幾季的轉換率應該有什麼期望？

Are your model improvements driving maybe further conversion rate improvements?

您的模型改進是否會進一步提高轉換率？

Or should it plateau at a certain point?

或者它應該在某個點趨於穩定？

What should we be looking for?

我們應該尋找什麼？

Ramsey, great to hear from you.

拉姆齊，很高興收到你的來信。

I would say that, to the extent our guidance is indicating upward trajectory, almost all of that is coming from conversion gain, and the underlying model accuracy driving funnel improvement over time.

我想說的是，就我們的指導顯示的上升軌跡而言，幾乎所有這些都來自轉換增益，以及隨著時間的推移推動漏斗改進的基礎模型準確性。

And I would say for the foreseeable future, that will be the growth model.

我想說，在可預見的未來，這將是成長模式。

There is potentially a rate at which those conversion rates plateau, but I don't think we're close to those rates at this time.

這些轉換率可能會達到一個穩定水平，但我認為我們目前還沒有接近這個水平。

So there's still a lot of runway to improve those conversion rates and drive the growth of the top line.

因此，提高轉換率並推動營收成長還有很長的路要走。

Okay.

好的。

A follow-up for me.

我的後續行動。

On the smaller dollar relief loans, can you talk about these loans in the context of being, like, an acquisition channel for larger, longer-duration borrowers or loans?

關於較小的美元救濟貸款，您能否在大額、長期借款人或貸款的收購管道等背景下談論這些貸款？

In other words, are you seeing any of these small dollar customers come back and apply for larger loans that you can now kind of underwrite sort of like a training wheels type of a scenario in terms of being a channel into your core business?

換句話說，您是否看到這些小額客戶中的任何一個回來併申請更大的貸款，您現在可以承保這些貸款，就像輔助輪類型的場景一樣，成為您核心業務的管道？

Ramsey, this is Dave.

拉姆齊，這是戴夫。

I think that's a pretty good description of how that product works and why we have it.

我認為這很好地描述了該產品的工作原理以及我們為什麼擁有它。

It's really to push deeper with small amounts of dollars at risk to be able to approve somebody on a shorter-term loan.

這實際上是為了能夠批准某人獲得短期貸款，從而以少量美元承擔風險，進一步推進。

It's just an opportunity for the models to learn faster and go faster and to acquire customers that are then eligible for other Upstart products later.

這只是一個機會，讓模型能夠更快地學習和發展，並獲得稍後有資格使用其他 Upstart 產品的客戶。

So it is doing a super nice job of pushing the boundaries of our models, both in terms of the automation as well as in the selection and pricing, so that's gone extremely well.

因此，它在突破我們模型的界限方面做得非常好，無論是在自動化方面還是在選擇和定價方面，所以進展非常順利。

We have seen quite a bit of return for other loans.

我們已經看到其他貸款的相當多的回報。

So that's also improving well.

所以這也得到了很好的改善。

And as we said on the call, it's become economically strong for us.

正如我們在電話中所說，它對我們來說在經濟上變得更加強大。

It's not a drain on us in any way.

無論如何，這不會消耗我們的精力。

So it's been just, frankly, all around a great win for us, and we would expect it to continue to be.

所以，坦白說，這對我們來說是一場偉大的勝利，我們希望它能繼續下去。

Kyle Peterson, Needham.

凱爾彼得森，尼達姆。

I wanted to start off on the size of the balance sheet here.

我想從資產負債表的規模開始。

It was going to see some nice runoffs just in the core personal side.

在核心個人方面將會看到一些不錯的決選。

I guess, how should we think about the pace of runoff over the next few quarters, especially now that you guys seem to continue to bolster your funding?

我想，我們該如何考慮未來幾季的徑流速度，特別是現在你們似乎繼續增加資金？

Kyle, great to hear from you.

凱爾，很高興收到你的來信。

The answer to that question is a bit about the outcome of how fast the borrower side of the platform is scaling up due to model improvements and how quickly we're signing up new capital agreements.

這個問題的答案與平台借款方因模型改進而擴大規模的速度以及我們簽署新資本協議的速度有關。

Obviously, intention continues to be delivering those borrowers and that yields to our lending partners and to the institutional markets.

顯然，意圖繼續為這些借款人提供服務，並為我們的貸款合作夥伴和機構市場帶來收益。

But there's always going to be a bit of mismatch in timing.

但時間上總是會有一些不匹配的情況。

We may get a model win and not have the capital available or we may sign the capital up and the model win may come afterwards.

我們可能會獲得模型勝利，但沒有可用的資金，或者我們可能會簽署資本，然後模型勝利可能會出現。

And so I think in the give and take between those two sides of our platform, that's where we've historically used our balance sheet to step in.

因此，我認為在我們平台的這兩個方面之間的交換中，這就是我們歷史上使用資產負債表介入的地方。

And so all that to say, I do believe that the medium-term direction here will continue to be a reduction in our balance sheet, at least as far as core loans are concerned.

綜上所述，我確實相信中期方向將繼續是縮減我們的資產負債表，至少就核心貸款而言是如此。

But there may be some timing mismatch along the way, such that there may be some sort of swings up and down as we do that.

但在此過程中可能會出現一些時間不匹配的情況，因此在我們這樣做時可能會出現某種程度的上下波動。

So it's a bit hard to really calculate a very accurate pacing, if you will, given the volatility of those two sides of the business.

因此，考慮到這兩個方面業務的波動性，如果你願意的話，要真正計算出非常準確的節奏是有點困難的。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then I guess just a follow-up on expenses, particularly with the fixed cost base, I think you guys have said kind of in the past that the fixed cost base you guys have today can support a lot more volume than you guys have been doing, call it, over the past four to six quarters here.

然後我想這只是支出的後續行動，特別是固定成本基礎，我想你們過去曾說過，你們今天擁有的固定成本基礎可以支持比你們過去更多的數量過去四到六個季度在這裡做，稱之為。

If we do get a better environment for originations, I guess how much more volume can you guys support with the fixed cost structure that you guys have today?

如果我們確實為創始提供了更好的環境，我想你們現在的固定成本結構可以支援多少數量？

I know the contribution margin you guys gave was helpful earlier.

我知道你們之前提供的邊際貢獻很有幫助。

Just trying to think about the fixed cost leverage.

只是想考慮一下固定成本槓桿。

Well, I guess I'll say that through the end of this year and with the growth plans we have, we feel pretty good at where our cost base is.

好吧，我想我會說，到今年年底，根據我們的成長計劃，我們對我們的成本基礎感到非常滿意。

If the business were to start to really take off beyond that, I think there are some areas on the margin that we would like to reinforce.

如果業務要開始真正起飛，我認為我們希望加強一些邊緣領域。

But nothing on the level of what we anticipate the growth of the business itself could be.

但業務本身的成長水準不可能達到我們預期的水準。

So I guess the main takeaway is there will be improving operating leverage as the top line grows.

因此，我認為主要的結論是，隨著收入的成長，營運槓桿將會提高。

Peter Christiansen, Citigroup.

彼得‧克里斯蒂安森，花旗集團。

I want to dig into your comment about some of the at-will supplies of funding coming back.

我想深入探討您對一些隨意恢復的資金供應的評論。

Just wondering if you could give us a barometer where we are perhaps compared to maybe, I don't know, '21, part of 2022 in terms of some of those levels or at least indication of funding level that we saw back then.

只是想知道您是否能給我們一個晴雨表，我們可能會與我不知道的 21 年 2022 年的一部分進行比較，其中一些水平或至少表明我們當時看到的資金水平。

And then, I guess, well, back then, we also had 40% of your funding volume was through the ABS market.

然後，我想，當時，我們也有 40% 的資金量是透過 ABS 市場進行的。

Would you expect to be returning to the ABS market for issuance in the near future?

您是否預計在不久的將來重返ABS市場發行？

I would say that the recovery of what we think of as the at-will funding markets, real large, that's the world of credit funds and hedge funds that predominantly depend on ABS as a liquidity channel.

我想說的是，我們所認為的真正大規模的隨意融資市場的復甦，是主要依賴 ABS 作為流動性管道的信貸基金和對沖基金的世界。

It's early days for the recovery.

現在還處於復甦的早期階段。

I don't think we're near the scale that we were at a couple of years ago.

我認為我們還沒有達到幾年前的規模。

And that's, of course, reflective of the fact that the ABS markets are certainly not at the level of volume and liquidity that they were back then.

當然，這反映出這樣一個事實，即 ABS 市場的交易量和流動性肯定達不到當時的水平。

But I do think that those markets are rapidly improving, and we have plans to be back in the ABS market certainly before the end of the year.

但我確實認為這些市場正在迅速改善，我們計劃在今年年底前重返 ABS 市場。

So I think those things continue to be on a good trajectory.

所以我認為這些事情繼續處於良好的軌道上。

That's good to hear.

很高興聽到這個消息。

I recognize that period is not a fair comparison.

我承認那個時期的比較並不公平。

It was a unique era.

那是一個獨特的時代。

But secondly, in terms of the co-investment, how should we think about that level progressing over the next, I don't know, one or two quarters.

但其次，就共同投資而言，我們應該如何考慮未來一兩個季度的進展水平，我不知道。

Is that still, do you think, going to be a portion or tied to your front-end principle?

您認為這仍然是您的前端原則的一部分或與之相關嗎？

Hey, Pete, this is Dave.

嘿，皮特，這是戴夫。

I think the co-investment partnerships are definitely key to our future.

我認為共同投資夥伴關係絕對是我們未來的關鍵。

I mean, that was what we've been working on for some time to go from almost entirely at-will funding a couple of years ago to having longer term committed partnership.

我的意思是，這就是我們一段時間以來一直在努力的方向，從幾年前幾乎完全隨意的資助轉變為建立長期承諾的合作夥伴關係。

So that is very important to us.

所以這對我們來說非常重要。

The at-will funding can be useful in a lot of ways, but overdependence on ABS, particularly when those markets can ebb and flow quite a bit, isn't healthy for us.

隨意融資在許多方面都很有用，但過度依賴 ABS，特別是當這些市場可能大幅波動時，對我們來說並不健康。

So as we said, we have well over half of our funding at the end of Q2 in these longer-term partnerships.

正如我們所說，到第二季末，我們一半以上的資金都投入了這些長期合作關係。

And we think we would like to maintain that percentage.

我們認為我們希望保持這個百分比。

So I think where we're we want to be with more long-term committed capital, less reliance on ABS, and that sort of structure.

因此，我認為我們希望擁有更多的長期承諾資本，減少對 ABS 和此類結構的依賴。

As we grow back, we would like to sort of keep things as they are now.

當我們重新成長時，我們希望保持現在的樣子。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

詹姆斯‧福賽特，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to follow up there on the committed capital.

我想跟進承諾資本。

How should we be thinking about what that looks like in terms of unit economics or accounting treatment in those partnerships versus kind of at-will generally?

我們應該如何考慮這些合夥企業與一般隨意合夥企業的單位經濟學或會計處理方面的情況？

James, in terms of unit economics, the loans that are being funded through that channel look very similar to the broader institutional loans.

詹姆斯，就單位經濟學而言，透過該管道提供資金的貸款看起來與更廣泛的機構貸款非常相似。

They differ from the lending partner channel in that the risk aperture is a little broader, and the returns are a little commensurately higher.

它們與貸款合作夥伴通路的不同之處在於，風險範圍更廣，回報也相應更高。

But in terms of our unit economics, there's really very little difference between that channel and maybe what you might think of as more of the at-will institutional channel.

但就我們的單位經濟學而言，該管道與您可能認為更多的隨意機構管道之間實際上沒有什麼區別。

In terms of the accounting, look, these deals, I would say, are still becoming more and more standardized or templatized as we do more of them.

在會計方面，我想說，隨著我們做的越來越多，這些交易仍然變得越來越標準化或模板化。

I think historically, they've shown up in a couple of different places on our balance sheet.

我認為從歷史上看，它們出現在我們資產負債表上的幾個不同位置。

But increasingly, we're going to look to sort of standardize the structure of the deals that we do.

但我們將越來越多地尋求對我們所做的交易結構進行標準化。

And we do pull the holistic view of it together on our investor earnings deck, which gives you a glimpse of the total exposure.

我們確實將其整體觀點整合到我們的投資者收益平台上，這讓您可以一睹總風險。

Got it.

知道了。

And then quickly, last quarter, you alluded to the fact that you had indexed more to prime than you've historically had, and given some of the prior actions you took.

然後很快，上個季度，您提到了這樣一個事實，即您對 Prime 的索引比歷史上的還要多，並考慮到您之前採取的一些行動。

Just wondering if you can give us an update in terms of what you're seeing in prime versus subprime this quarter and what you anticipate getting back to more normalized mix?

只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹本季優質貸款和次級貸款的最新情況，以及您預計將如何恢復更正常化的組合？

Hey, James, this is Dave.

嘿，詹姆斯，這是戴夫。

Our mix has swung towards prime.

我們的組合已轉向黃金。

And I think generally that we would see, as we regrow, we would like to be very balanced across the credit spectrum.

我認為，總的來說，隨著我們的再增長，我們希望在整個信貸範圍內保持非常平衡。

And we think that's best for our brand.

我們認為這對我們的品牌來說是最好的。

It's best for stability of the business, et cetera.

這對於業務的穩定性等等都是最好的。

So one thing we would anticipate in the coming quarters is a stronger position at the primary end of the credit spectrum than we've had traditionally where we really have not had funding appropriate to compete in that part of the market, but we think that's changing.

因此，我們在未來幾季預計的一件事是，在信貸領域的初級端，我們的地位比傳統上更強大，因為我們確實沒有適當的資金來在這部分市場競爭，但我們認為這種情況正在改變。

So I think you'll see us be more balanced in the future than we've been in the past with regard to the credit spectrum.

因此，我認為未來我們在信貸範圍方面會比過去更加平衡。

Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

丹‧多列夫，瑞穗。

Great quarter, great results.

偉大的季度，偉大的成果。

Very happy to see that.

很高興看到這一點。

I want to know what's going to happen.

我想知道會發生什麼事。

Assuming interest rate cuts, how much torque do you think there is in the business that you can actually expand growth, expand loans as the environment gets more easier for you to do that?

假設降息，您認為隨著環境變得更容易做到這一點，您的業務有多大的扭力可以真正擴大成長、擴大貸款？

That's pretty much my only question is like how much upside can we dream to dream at this point?

這幾乎是我唯一的問題，現在我們能夢想到多少上升空間？

Look, reducing rates, benchmark rates and market rates, are unambiguously good for the business.

看起來，降低利率、基準利率和市場利率，無疑對企業有利。

They haven't obviously been the main headwind to our business.

它們顯然並不是我們業務的主要阻力。

Default rates have been much more punitive in how they've evolved over the last two years or so.

在過去兩年左右的時間裡，違約率的演變更具懲罰性。

But definitely having the benchmark rates go up from zero to 5%-ish has been a headwind as well.

但基準利率從零升至 5% 左右肯定也是阻力。

And as that reverses, it would presumably be a tailwind.

當這種情況發生逆轉時，這可能會成為順風車。

It's a bit hard to quantify the exact nature of the tailwind as rates reduce.

隨著利率下降，要量化順風的確切性質有點困難。

And it obviously depends on how far back down they go.

這顯然取決於他們往後退了多遠。

But each quarter point will result in lower financing costs for the institutional investors.

但每下降四分之一個百分點，機構投資人的融資成本就會降低。

And as that creates lower hurdle rates, those will result in lower rates to our borrowers.

由於這會降低最低門檻利率，因此我們的借款人的利率也會降低。

And I guess I'll just say that I think each cut would be a noticeable benefit in terms of its impact on our conversion rates.

我想我只想說，我認為每次削減都會對我們的轉換率產生顯著的影響。

Got it.

知道了。

Well, it definitely looks like you're upstarting a new cycle.

嗯，看起來你確實正在開始一個新的週期。

So congrats again.

所以再次恭喜。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞，指南針點。

All right.

好的。

Congrats on the results and some of the new funding announcements.

祝賀結果和一些新的融資公告。

One thing I'd be curious about digging into a little bit is your marketing expenses because you had some improvement in your marketing efficiencies this quarter.

我想深入研究的一件事是您的行銷費用，因為本季您的行銷效率有所提高。

And in the past, what you've kind of said is that there were some challenges with some loans being priced about 36% that you couldn't necessarily convert.

過去，您曾說過，有些貸款定價約為 36%，但您不一定能轉換，因此存在一些挑戰。

And I'm curious, when you think about that improvement in your marketing efficiency this quarter, how much of it was driven by being able to approve or underwrite more loans under 36%?

我很好奇，當您考慮本季行銷效率的提高時，其中有多少是由於能夠批准或承銷更多低於 36% 的貸款而推動的？

And I'm curious kind of how that could evolve over the next few quarters and how that's kind of factored into your outlook at this point?

我很好奇未來幾季會如何發展，以及您目前的前景如何考慮這一點？

Sure.

當然。

So the marketing efficiency is a function of our funnel conversion.

所以行銷效率是我們漏斗轉換的函數。

Most generally so when the funnel converts better, our marketing tends to get more efficient, et cetera.

一般來說，當漏斗轉換得更好時，我們的行銷往往會變得更有效率，等等。

So that's a dynamic that's always in play.

所以這是一種始終在發揮作用的動力。

The 36% kind of rate cap on Upstart means that as base rates go up and as risk goes up, fewer and fewer people are approved, and we've seen that in spades in the last couple of years.

Upstart 的 36% 的利率上限意味著，隨著基本利率的上升和風險的上升，獲得批准的人越來越少，我們在過去幾年中已經看到了這一點。

We went through a two-year period where rates almost constantly were going in an upward trajectory.

我們經歷了兩年的時間，利率幾乎一直呈現上升趨勢。

And every time that happened, a bunch more people would not be approved, because, effectively, the system requires of them goes over 36%.

每次發生這種情況，就會有更多的人無法獲得批准，因為實際上系統對他們的要求超過了 36%。

So that's a little bit unwinding going the other way now, which is a good thing.

所以現在有點放鬆，這是一件好事。

Partially -- or most of it actually is due to model accuracy and the newest versions of the models.

部分或大部分實際上是由於模型的準確性和模型的最新版本。

We're able to sort of identify more people who fit under that envelope of 36%.

我們能夠找出更多符合 36% 範圍的人。

And the result of that is that you see marketing efficiency improving.

其結果是您會看到行銷效率提高。

So that's a dynamic we would expect to continue in the coming months and quarters.

因此，我們預計這種動態將在未來幾個月和幾季持續下去。

Got it.

知道了。

And maybe picking away at that point.

也許那時就會選擇離開。

I'm curious in a sense of where things are, in the sense of when we think about funnel conversions and kind of the improvement, where do you think we are kind of improved 10%, 20% of normalization?

我很好奇事情在哪裡，當我們考慮漏斗轉換和改進時，您認為我們在規範化方面改進了 10%、20%？

And is there a lot more to go with 100 basis point or 200 basis point decrease in interest rates?

利率下降 100 個基點或 200 個基點還會帶來更多影響嗎？

I would think of this as an ongoing journey.

我認為這是一個持續的旅程。

I think the model accuracy has systematically improved since the beginning of our company, and each improvement has a commensurate improvement on our conversion rates.

我認為自我們公司成立以來，模型的準確性已經得到系統性的提高，每項改進都會對​​我們的轉換率產生相應的提高。

Those can obviously be temporary setback on the macro, but as the macro normalizes, so all our conversion rates.

這些顯然可能是宏觀的暫時挫折，但隨著宏觀的正常化，我們所有的轉換率也會如此。

And the question to how much better they can get is sort of the same answer to the question of how much more accurate can your models get at approving good borrowers and avoiding bad ones.

他們能得到多少改善的問題與你的模型在批准好藉款人和避免壞借款人方面能有多準確的問題的答案有點相同。

And we've talked about the fact that we think we've really just kind of scratched the surface in terms of our model's ability to improve explainability in credit default.

我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們認為我們的模型提高信用違約可解釋性的能力實際上只是觸及了表面。

And so we believe that the longer-term road map of this company continues to be improving models and improving conversion rates over the years.

因此，我們相信，該公司的長期路線圖多年來將繼續改進模型並提高轉換率。

So we don't think of it as sort of normalizing right now.

所以我們現在不認為這是一種正常化。

We think we're back on the journey of improving models and improving conversion rates now that the macro is no longer a direct headwind.

我們認為，既然宏觀經濟不再是直接的阻力，我們又回到了改善模型和提高轉換率的旅程。

Maybe one very quick question.

也許是一個非常簡短的問題。

You're obviously going around 50% or rolled off 50% forward committed capital.

顯然，您將投入 50% 左右或滾滾 50% 的遠期承諾資本。

That's kind of a percentage of your funding.

這是您資金的一定百分比。

I think in the past you referred to that as where you'd wanted it to be, close to the higher end of the range.

我認為過去您將其稱為您想要的位置，接近範圍的高端。

I'm curious, would you look to overshoot that and then grow kind of the spot or uncommitted business to catch up with that?

我很好奇，你會尋求超越這個目標，然後發展某種點或不承諾的業務來趕上這個目標嗎？

Is there any structural limitation in the near term to what percentage of volume or funding you'd want to have come from forward committed capital sources at this point?

目前您希望來自遠期承諾資本來源的數量或資金百分比是否有任何結構性限制？

Yes.

是的。

I think that given that we are feeling increasingly optimistic about the road map of model improvements and the lack of macro headwinds, I think it's in our interest to put some more capital deals in place now and in your words to try and overshoot a little bit in anticipation of that growth materializing over the coming quarters, just given that these deals are relatively heavily negotiated and they take some time to put in place.

我認為，鑑於我們對模型改進的路線圖越來越樂觀，並且缺乏宏觀阻力，我認為現在進行更多的資本交易符合我們的利益，用你的話說，嘗試稍微超出一點考慮到這些交易經過相對深入的談判並且需要一些時間才能落實，預計未來幾季將實現成長。

So I think we want to err on the side of having those partnerships in place in anticipation of where we see the borrower side of the platform growing.

因此，我認為我們寧願選擇建立這些合作夥伴關係，以預測平台借款人方面的成長。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Question on the outlook.

關於前景的問題。

Updated guidance suggests better trend on originations.

更新的指導意見顯示了更好的起源趨勢。

You guys sound pretty positive overall.

你們整體聽起來很正面。

Could you maybe break down how much of the improved outlook is coming from -- maybe mechanically from lower interest rates versus a better model versus maybe better funding?

您能否詳細分析前景改善有多少來自於——也許機械地來自於較低的利率、更好的模型以及更好的融資？

How would you quantify each of those or any additional drivers into the better outlook?

您如何量化其中每一個或任何其他驅動因素以實現更好的前景？

Hey, Rob, this is Dave.

嘿，羅布，這是戴夫。

I think that there is no assumption of improving interest rates or reduction in kind of macro risk built into that.

我認為，不存在提高利率或減少宏觀風險的假設。

So the guidance is based on really what we're seeing, based on improvements we've made internally.

因此，該指南實際上是基於我們所看到的情況以及我們內部所做的改進。

And maybe the way to think of that is better model means better conversion rate.

也許思考的方式是更好的模型意味著更好的轉換率。

The other important input is we have to, of course, have sufficient funding supply to keep up with that growth.

當然，另一個重要的投入是我們必須有足夠的資金供應來跟上這種成長。

But the gating item in terms of, like, what's really gating where our guidance sits today, it really is just about economic funnel conversion.

但是，就我們今天的指導方針而言，真正的門控項目實際上只是關於經濟漏斗的轉換。

And it's improved a lot really through model improvements primarily.

它主要透過模型改進得到了很大的改進。

And at this point, we feel comfortable that we, on the funding side, can make things match well.

在這一點上，我們感到放心，在資金方面，我們可以讓一切都很好地匹配。

So that's a long-winded way of saying it's really through things we've done ourselves.

所以這是一種冗長的說法，這實際上是透過我們自己所做的事情來實現的。

It is not based on any assumptions about improvement in rates or risk in the environment.

它並非基於任何有關環境中利率或風險改善的假設。

Okay.

好的。

And then a question on the small-dollar loans. could you give us some color on how much the growth in small-dollar loans may or may not have impacted the conversion rate quarter over quarter?

然後是關於小額貸款的問題。您能否告訴我們小額貸款的成長可能會或可能不會對逐季轉換率產生多大影響？

And the same question going forward.

以及同樣的問題。

As you grow in small-dollar loans, does that drive the conversion rate a lot higher?

隨著小額貸款的成長，轉換率是否會大幅提高？

Yes.

是的。

The SDL product is having an impact on overall conversion rates.

SDL 產品正在對整體轉換率產生影響。

I think it's on the order of maybe a 2% or 3% impact at the scale that it's at.

我認為就目前的規模而言，影響可能約為 2% 或 3%。

So it's not insignificant, but it's also relatively minor.

所以它並不是微不足道的，但也相對較小。

Simon Clinch, Redburn Atlantic.

西蒙‧克林奇，《雷德本大西洋月刊》。

I was wondering if you could talk about what it takes or what levers you can pull and what macro tailwinds you might need to see the sort of gross inquiries that come into the Upstart network before conversion.

我想知道您是否可以談談需要什麼，或者您可以拉動什麼槓桿，以及您可能需要什麼宏觀推動力才能看到​​轉換之前進入 Upstart 網路的總查詢量。

How do you drive that higher over time because that is down quite materially from where it's been in the past.

隨著時間的推移，你如何推動這個數字更高，因為它比過去大幅下降了。

And I'm just wondering if that was just overstated previously and whether there's actually quite a lot of upstarts in this coming cycle for that?

我只是想知道這是否只是之前被誇大了以及在即將到來的周期中是否真的有很多新貴？

Just about the top of the funnel inquiries, that sort of the

就在漏斗查詢的頂部，這樣的

(multiple speakers)

（多個發言者）

Before conversion, yes.

在轉換之前，是的。

We've not published sort of traffic to the site, so that's not something that we've discussed publicly or try to track in that means.

我們還沒有發布該網站的流量，因此我們沒有公開討論或嘗試以這種方式追蹤。

Is there something different you mean by that?

你的意思有什麼不同嗎？

So I'll just take your volumes and then kind of back out from the conversion rate sort of what it was before you've converted, just use that as a mean sort of track approximately what volumes would be...

因此，我將只獲取您的交易量，然後從轉換率中恢復到轉換之前的狀態，只需將其用作大約交易量的平均追蹤...

Yes, it's not exactly the same thing, but it's directionally correct.

是的，這不完全是同一件事，但方向是正確的。

Generally speaking, a lot of times, we are controlling that by how much we're spending in various marketing channels and also just generally how competitive our rates are.

一般來說，很多時候，我們透過在各種行銷管道上的支出以及我們的價格的競爭力來控制這一點。

So that's part of whether we're doing direct mail or some sort of digital acquisition or whether we're kind of remarketing to our own customer base or through partner channels that are responsive and can vary how much traffic they send us based on the quality of our rates, et cetera.

因此，這就是我們是否進行直郵或某種數位獲取，或者我們是否對自己的客戶群進行再行銷，或透過合作夥伴管道進行再行銷的一部分，這些管道響應迅速，可以根據品質改變他們向我們發送的流量我們的費率等等。

So those are things that are a function of the market in some sense or how strong our product is or how much we're actively marketing.

因此，從某種意義上說，這些都是市場的函數，或是我們的產品有多強大，或是我們積極行銷的程度。

So I hope that fills in some of the blanks for you.

所以我希望這能填補你的一些空白。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe you could talk a bit more about the Model 18, M18.

也許您可以多談談 Model 18、M18。

And can you give us a sense, for those of us who aren't educated in machine learning and stuff like that, but just really how unique something like that is, and ultimately, how quickly a model like that really starts to have an impact on your business?

對於我們這些沒有接受過機器學習之類的教育的人來說，您能否給我們一種感覺，但這樣的東西確實是多麼獨特，最終，這樣的模型真正開始產生影響的速度有多快與你的生意有關嗎？

Well, we're in a sort of never-ending quest to accurately price each and every loan offer that's made on our system.

好吧，我們永無止境地追求對我們系統上提供的每筆貸款報價進行準確定價。

And one of the things we've known, and I think most lenders of some sort know, is that the quality of the offer you make to the market, meaning the level of the APR, has an impact on who accepts it and therefore, how that loan performs.

我們知道的一件事，我想大多數貸方都知道，你向市場提供的報價的質量，即年利率的水平，會影響誰接受它，因此，該貸款的表現如何。

So the APR, which is most people would think about the output of the model, actually affects the performance of the loan.

因此，大多數人會想到的模型輸出的年利率實際上會影響貸款的績效。

So this is something, again, most people would tell you they have an intuitive sense of.

所以，大多數人都會告訴你，他們有一種直覺。

But mechanically answering it and having models that are sophisticated enough to handle that is very important, particularly in the modern world where consumers have lots of choices, they compare rates all over the place.

但機械地回答這個問題並擁有足夠複雜的模型來處理這個問題非常重要，特別是在消費者有很多選擇的現代世界，他們會到處比較費率。

This is something that even 10, 15 years ago, hardly existed.

即使在 10、15 年前，這也是幾乎不存在的。

But today, consumers have a lot of ways they can compare and find the best rates.

但如今，消費者可以透過多種方式進行比較並找到最優惠的價格。

So having a lot of savvy around that notion of adverse selection in positive selection is really important.

因此，充分了解正向選擇中逆向選擇的概念非常重要。

And solving it from a technical perspective really comes down to trying to converge to the appropriate APR.

從技術角度解決這個問題實際上可以歸結為嘗試收斂到適當的 APR。

And what that amounts to technically for us is running our risk models many, many times in parallel in order to converge to the right number.

從技術上來說，這對我們來說意味著並行運行我們的風險模型很多很多次，以便收斂到正確的數字。

And it's a significant challenge that we've gotten over.

這是我們已經克服的重大挑戰。

And I think we're just beginning to reap the benefits of it.

我認為我們才剛開始收穫它的好處。

The guidance that you're seeing for the second half of the year, a significant fraction of what you're seeing in terms of our optimism for the second half of the year comes directly through the improvements in that model.

您看到的下半年指導，我們對下半年的樂觀情緒，很大一部分直接來自於該模型的改進。

And also, we see a lot of continued opportunity in that domain in that area to improve the models.

而且，我們在該領域看到了許多持續改進模型的機會。

And again, that's what we're in business to do.

再說一遍，這就是我們要做的事。

It's generally where all the advantages of Upstart is, when we can build better risk models, and we're having some really good success in that area right now.

一般來說，當我們可以建立更好的風險模型時，Upstart 的所有優勢都體現在這一點上，而我們現在在這個領域取得了一些非常好的成功。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特·凱恩蒂克，BTIG。

First, I just wanted to follow up on the funding partnership discussion.

首先，我只想跟進資助夥伴關係的討論。

It's good to see that the credit investor demand is increasing.

很高興看到信貸投資者的需求正在增加。

Just if you could maybe talk about some of the discussions you're having, what are those credit investors focus on?

如果您可以談談您正在進行的一些討論，那麼那些信貸投資者關注的焦點是什麼？

What's changed where you're now getting more sign-ups?

現在註冊人數增加了，有什麼改變嗎？

If you can give a sense of how pricing has changed or improved, and maybe how much of your annual origination volume is now covered by all these new sign-ups.

如果您能了解定價如何變化或改進，也許所有這些新註冊現在涵蓋了您的年度發起量的數量。

Hey, Vincent, welcome back.

嘿，文森特，歡迎回來。

On the funding partnerships that we are engaging in, I mean, there's sort of two general vectors: one is increasing comfort or confidence with credit trends in general and maybe sort of macro risk; and then second, we're sort of being innovative in some of the financial structures that we're coming up with and discussing with some of these partners and prospective partners.

我的意思是，就我們正在參與的融資夥伴關係而言，有兩個一般向量：一是增加對整體信貸趨勢以及宏觀風險的信心或信心；二是增加對信貸趨勢的信心。其次，我們在與其中一些合作夥伴和潛在合作夥伴討論並提出並討論的一些金融結構方面進行了創新。

And it's sort of, I would say, a learning curve for all of us in terms of how to get these partnerships implemented and put in place and managed.

我想說，這對我們所有人來說都是一個學習曲線，涉及如何實施、落實和管理這些夥伴關係。

And so a lot of the journey with the prospective partner is just about understanding the model and the structure and how it all works, and then the recognition that there's definitely ways of creating win-win partnerships here for us as the issuer and for these counterparties who are interested in the yield.

因此，與潛在合作夥伴的大部分旅程只是了解模型和結構以及它是如何運作的，然後認識到肯定有辦法為我們作為發行人和這些交易對手建立雙贏的合作夥伴關係對產量感興趣的人。

And so I wouldn't say beyond that, there's been dramatic changes in preferences over rates, and sort of supply and demand dynamics.

因此，除此之外，我不會說，利率偏好以及供需動態發生了巨大變化。

It's mostly been just an ongoing education for all of us around how these structures work.

對我們所有人來說，這主要是關於這些結構如何運作的持續教育。

And I think it's going in a very good direction.

我認為它正朝著一個非常好的方向發展。

In terms of capacity, as Dave said, we're sort of a bit north of 50% of all the institutional money that's going to fund the loans on our platform in the past quarter came from these types of arrangements, and we'll aim to maintain that kind of coverage or that kind of capacity over the long term.

就容量而言，正如戴夫所說，上個季度為我們平台上的貸款提供資金的所有機構資金中有 50% 來自此類安排，我們的目標是長期保持這種覆蓋範圍或這種能力。

In the medium term, we'll maybe overbuild a little bit in anticipation of some growth that may happen in the coming quarters.

從中期來看，我們可能會過度建設一點，因為預計未來幾季可能會出現一些成長。

Okay.

好的。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

And my second question, just if you could talk about the competitive environment for consumer financing.

我的第二個問題，您能否談談消費者融資的競爭環境？

It seems like others in this environment might be pulling back when you hear about some of the traditional banks on their earnings calls were talking about seeing stress in the low end in the middle consumer.

當你聽到一些傳統銀行在財報電話會議上談論看到中端消費者的低端壓力時，這種環境下的其他人似乎可能會退縮。

So it seems like a lot of competition is pulling back.

因此，似乎很多競爭都在減弱。

But I just wanted to get that sense from you what you're seeing with that competitive environment.

但我只是想從您那裡了解您在競爭環境中所看到的情況。

Well, I think our position on the consumer, I like to think we've been ahead of the crowd a bit in the sense that it was clear there was deterioration of credit at the sort of less affluent part last year and then later last year into the more affluent part.

嗯，我認為我們對消費者的立場，我想我們已經領先大眾了，因為去年和去年晚些時候，不太富裕的部分的信貸狀況明顯惡化進入更富裕的部分。

But as Sanjay said in his remarks earlier, we're seeing sort of uniform improvement now across the board.

但正如桑傑在早些時候的演講中所說，我們現在看到了全面的統一改善。

So we sort of feel like, and we've been kind of signaling this for some time that we're nearing the end of the cycle.

所以我們感覺，一段時間以來我們一直在發出這樣的訊號，表示我們已經接近週期的結束。

And I think we just have clear indications that credit is actually in a normalization period, not in a deterioration period.

我認為我們只是有明確的跡象表明信貸實際上處於正常化時期，而不是惡化時期。

Now what others are seeing or saying and where their data is coming from, I obviously can't speak to.

現在，其他人所看到或所說的話以及他們的數據來自哪裡，我顯然無法談論。

But I think we feel pretty good about that.

但我認為我們對此感覺很好。

With regard to -- banks and lenders can either be a partner of ours or they can be a competitor of ours.

關於－銀行和貸款人可以是我們的合作夥伴，也可以是我們的競爭對手。

But I know the ones that are partners of ours are tending to see increasing liquidity, and that sort of swung to the place where they're needing more assets, they're needing more loans.

但我知道我們的合作夥伴往往會看到流動性不斷增加，而這種情況就會轉向他們需要更多資產、需要更多貸款的地方。

And we talked a bit about that.

我們對此進行了一些討論。

So they are coming in a little bit more competitively, lowering their return targets and really wanting to sort of swing the dial a little bit.

因此，他們的競爭更加激烈，降低了回報目標，並且確實希望稍微調整一下。

So I don't think there's any sort of caution to the wind like environment, but I do think the sort of lack of liquidity that was really serious a year ago and it's probably carried on through the end of 2023 has really improved a lot.

因此，我不認為對風這樣的環境有任何謹慎，但我確實認為一年前非常嚴重的流動性缺乏，並且可能持續到 2023 年底，這種情況確實已經改善了很多。

And for us, that means the lending partners and banks and the credit unions have definitely returned, and that's been very helpful for us.

對我們來說，這意味著貸款合作夥伴、銀行和信用合作社肯定已經回歸，這對我們非常有幫助。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

雷吉史密斯，摩根大通。

I've got two quick ones.

我有兩個快的。

I guess you guys called out model improvement and a better UMI, which is great to hear and see.

我想你們都在呼籲模型改進和更好的 UMI，這很高興聽到和看到。

My question is, how should we think about those two things in the context of the deterrence in the co-investment portfolio?

我的問題是，在跟投組合的威懾力背景下，我們該如何思考這兩件事？

And I guess, specifically, I'm trying to figure out, I mean, should that manifest in better performance there?

我想，具體來說，我想弄清楚，我的意思是，這是否應該體現在更好的表現上？

If not, like, where do these gains and model efficiency accrue?

如果不是，那麼這些收益和模型效率又是從何而來？

Obviously, consumers are getting approved more loans.

顯然，消費者正在獲得更多貸款。

But how do you think about how that flows through to your business?

但您如何看待這如何影響您的業務？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Hey, Reggie, it's a great question.

嘿，雷吉，這是一個很好的問題。

In general, model gains or model accuracy improvements, such as the one that we highlighted, generally improve our ability to accurately separate risk, and that generally shows up mainly in our improved conversion funnel.

一般來說，模型效益或模型準確性改進（例如我們強調的模型效益或模型準確性改進）通常會提高我們準確分離風險的能力，並且通常主要體現在我們改進的轉換漏斗中。

So it would create business expansion.

因此它將創造業務擴張。

It wouldn't necessarily improve the calibration of the model in how it assesses an average pool of loans.

它不一定會改善模型在評估平均貸款池方面的校準。

So it wouldn't necessarily be expected to have a huge impact on the performance of the co-investment positions we have.

因此，這不一定會對我們共同投資部位的績效產生巨大影響。

The UMI to the extent it continues to fall would have a direct impact on the performance of loan pools, such as the ones that our co-investment partnerships have invested in, because it essentially means that credit trends are improving in real time.

UMI 繼續下降將對貸款池的績效產生直接影響，例如我們的聯合投資夥伴關係投資的貸款池，因為這本質上意味著信貸趨勢正在即時改善。

And as they do, the performance of those loans, any loans that are outstanding would be expected to improve and potentially overperform, and that would result in higher returns to our investment positions.

正如他們所做的那樣，這些貸款的表現，任何未償還的貸款都將有望改善，並可能表現出色，這將為我們的投資頭寸帶來更高的回報。

So I think that would have a pretty direct impact.

所以我認為這會產生非常直接的影響。

Got it.

知道了。

Understood.

明白了。

And then I guess a follow-up on the unit economics.

然後我想是單位經濟學的後續行動。

I'm not sure how much you guys can share here.

我不確定你們能在這裡分享多少。

But curious with somebody's committed structures, I assume you're selling these loans, maybe at a slight discount to par, or maybe -- where are you in that?

但對某人的承諾結構感到好奇，我假設你正在出售這些貸款，可能會比票面價格稍有折扣，或者可能——你在其中處於什麼位置？

Where are you in terms of that?

就這一點而言，你處於什麼位置？

And is the thinking that over time you could get to a place where you do some of at a premium to par or is kind of par the aspirational goal there?

是不是認為隨著時間的推移，你可以到達一個地方，在那裡你可以付出比標準更高的價格做一些事情，或者是那裡的理想目標？

Or am I completely off and maybe you selling them at a gain right now?

或者我完全退出了，也許你現在就以盈利的方式出售它們？

I'm not sure.

我不知道。

Yes.

是的。

The committed partnerships we are in as with all of the at-will capital, the traffic in the institutional markets, all of those loans are trafficked at par.

我們與所有隨意資本、機構市場的流量、所有這些貸款都按面值交易，建立了堅定的合作夥伴關係。

And I think that's our goal.

我認為這就是我們的目標。

We're not necessarily looking to create a business model from gain from sale.

我們不一定希望透過銷售收益創造一種商業模式。

I think our goal is to traffic loans at par that are correctly priced to the borrowers.

我認為我們的目標是以面額向借款人提供正確定價的貸款。

And to the extent we're co-invested we'll participate in the yield.

在我們共同投資的範圍內，我們將分享收益。

One last one.

最後一張。

Okay.

好的。

I just have one other question.

我還有一個問題。

And I want to give you guys just flowers for return to EBITDA positivity in the fourth quarter.

我想向你們獻上鮮花，祝你們第四季 EBITDA 恢復正值。

Just curious how you're thinking about stock compensation expense longer term.

只是好奇您如何考慮長期股票薪酬費用。

I noticed that it's been up well above where it was when you guys were much more profitable.

我注意到，現在的價格已經遠高於你們利潤更高的時候。

So just curious, like, what's the [pain] in there?

所以只是好奇，比如，那裡[疼痛]是什麼？

Well, we're happy to take our flowers for the return to profitability.

好吧，我們很高興為恢復盈利而付出努力。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

How we're thinking about stock compensation, I don't think it's dramatically different than how we thought of it in the past.

我認為我們對股票薪酬的看法與我們過去的看法並沒有太大不同。

As a tech company that's set forth in the valley, it's important to us, for our employees, to have a stake in the mission and the outcomes of the business.

作為一家誕生於矽谷的科技公司，對我們和我們的員工來說，參與企業使命和成果非常重要。

And I think we're at a pretty comfortable balance between cash compensation and equity compensation depending on roll and level.

我認為我們在現金薪酬和股權薪酬之間保持著相當舒適的平衡，具體取決於滾動和水平。

So I don't necessarily see a dramatic departure from how we've managed it to date.

因此，我並不一定認為我們迄今為止的管理方式有很大的不同。

Arvind Ramnani, Piper Sandler.

阿爾文德·拉姆納尼，派珀·桑德勒。

I wanted to ask on this call and in the prior calls, you all have talked about some of the big investments you have made in kind of improving your model and sort of like capabilities.

我想在這次電話會議上詢問，在之前的電話會議中，你們都談到了你們為改進模型和類似功能而進行的一些重大投資。

And as we get into a better kind of operating environment or lending environment, now that you have kind of a better model, I mean, how do you expect the business to perform in a more conducive environment just given the backdrop of better model, better offering?

當我們進入更好的營運環境或貸款環境時，既然你有了更好的模式，我的意思是，在更好的模式、更好的背景下，你如何期望業務在更有利的環境中表現？

Well, I think as I kind of said in my remarks, I think we've gone through a pretty significant transformation of the business over the last couple of years, both from a technology perspective and from a business model perspective.

嗯，我認為正如我在演講中所說的那樣，我認為在過去幾年中，無論是從技術角度還是從商業模式角度來看，我們都經歷了相當重大的業務轉型。

On the technology side, we feel much, much better at the quality of the models, how quickly they can react to changes in the environment, the amount of separation we're getting.

在技​​術方面，我們對模型的品質、它們對環境變化的反應速度以及我們獲得的分離量感覺好多了。

So it's just the normal trajectory of an AI model, where it's getting more and more data, more and more variables.

所以這只是人工智慧模型的正常軌跡，它獲得越來越多的數據、越來越多的變數。

We're putting more sophisticated software, and, as we talked about, Model 18.

我們正在安裝更複雜的軟體，正如我們所說的，Model 18。

So higher degrees of automation as we talked, we have a record high on that front.

正如我們所說，自動化程度更高，我們在這方面創下了歷史新高。

So the technology side has just really improved a lot and just made us more efficient.

所以技術方面確實有了很大的進步，讓我們變得更有效率。

And I think on the business model side, one of the things we clearly identified is we needed to have a funding structure that had permanence to it, so that when we grow, and even if there's bumps in the road along the way, which there inevitably will be, we can grow through them.

我認為在商業模式方面，我們明確確定的一件事是我們需要有一個永久性的融資結構，這樣當我們成長時，即使一路上有坎坷，不可避免的是，我們可以透過它們成長。

And that's kind of what we've done on the business model side, is really changed the nature of funding from completely at-will to dedicated partnerships, and we have some skin in the game in these partnerships as co-investors, which we think, given our role and our aims in the market, is a structure that makes sense.

這就是我們在商業模式方面所做的事情，真正改變了融資的性質，從完全隨意到專門的合作夥伴關係，我們作為共同投資者在這些合作夥伴關係中擁有一些利益，我們認為考慮到我們在市場中的角色和目標，這是一個有意義的結構。

So of course, in the good times when rates are dropping and the consumer is getting financially healthier, that's all very easy, and we're hopeful that's what we're headed into.

因此，當然，在利率下降、消費者財務狀況變得更健康的好時期，這一切都非常容易，我們希望這就是我們正在邁向的方向。

But of course, the test is when the market is not so easy, but that's what we're designing for.

當然，測試是在市場不那麼容易的時候進行的，但這就是我們設計的目的。

We're designing for a future with less volatility and more ability to thrive through whatever economic climate we find ourselves in.

我們正在設計一個波動性較小、更有能力在任何經濟環境下蓬勃發展的未來。

Yes.

是的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And willing to give you the benefit of doubt that you're like, our models are better.

並且願意讓您相信，我們的模型更好。

But I wanted to ask, have they been validated by some client feedback, some banking partner feedback?

但我想問，它們是否得到了一些客戶回饋、一些銀行夥伴回饋的驗證？

Or what is your sort of comfort level in saying that, hey, we have a better model?

或者，當您說“嘿，我們有更好的模型”時，您的舒適程度如何？

I mean, are you looking at internal data and coming to a conclusion?

我的意思是，您是否在查看內部數據並得出結論？

Or are you getting that from external validation?

還是你是從外部驗證中得到的？

What really gives you sort of comfort that you have proof that you have a better model?

什麼真正讓你感到安慰，因為你有證據證明你有更好的模型？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, there's very, very well-understood statistical techniques to actually describe and quantify accuracy of a model, and there are several different ones, and we use generally all of them.

我的意思是，有非常非常容易理解的統計技術來實際描述和量化模型的準確性，並且有幾種不同的技術，我們通常會使用所有這些技術。

So it's not hard for us to assess ourselves whether our model is getting more accurate or not relative to prior versions of our model.

因此，我們不難評估自己的模型相對於模型的先前版本是否變得更加準確。

So it's not hypothetical in any sense.

所以這在任何意義上都不是假設。

It's something very straightforward in terms of building more accuracy into a model.

就在模型中建構更高的準確性而言，這是非常簡單的事情。

Certainly, every lending partner and credit investor on our platform sees all the data that is coming out in terms of month-by-month performance data, et cetera.

當然，我們平台上的每個貸款合作夥伴和信貸投資者都會看到所有按月績效數據等形式出現的數據。

They have their own means of evaluating whether they think the credit is performing well or not what have you.

他們有自己的方法來評估他們認為信用是否表現良好。

But they're not looking at the software, if you will, trying to assess our model, but they care about the results, of course.

但是，如果你願意的話，他們不會查看軟體，試圖評估我們的模型，但當然，他們關心的是結果。

But I don't think there's any reason to question that we can accurately identify the level of improvement in accuracy that we see in each subsequent version of our model, it's kind of the nature of the system to do so.

但我認為沒有任何理由質疑我們可以準確地識別我們在模型的每個後續版本中看到的準確性改進水平，這是系統的本質這樣做。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

And Mr. Girouard, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks, sir.

吉魯阿爾先生，我將把會議轉回給你，請你發表補充或結束語，先生。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

As we discussed, the actions we've taken over the last few years are beginning to pay off, and we believe we're well set up for the remainder of 2024 and into next year.

正如我們所討論的，我們過去幾年採取的行動已開始取得成效，我們相信我們已為 2024 年剩餘時間和明年做好了充分準備。

So I hope you all enjoy the rest of your summer.

所以我希望你們都能享受剩下的夏天。

We look forward to speaking with you all in the fall.

我們期待在秋天與大家交談。

This concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。