(UPST) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the upstart Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加新貴 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Smith, Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管傑森史密斯（Jason Smith）。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss upstarts Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 financial results.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論新興企業 2023 年第四季和全年財務業績。

With us on today's call are Dave Gerard starts, Chief Executive Officer, and Sanjay data, our Chief Financial Officer.

參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Dave Gerard Starts 和財務長 Sanjay Data。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, upstart issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results and published an investor relations presentation.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布其第四季度和 2023 年全年財務業績，並發布了投資者關係簡報。

Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir dot upstart.com.

兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir dot upstart.com 上找到。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements such as guidance for the first quarter of 2024 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們業務相關的 2024 年第一季指引以及我們未來擴展平台的計畫。

These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions.

這些陳述是基於我們目前的預期和截至目前可獲得的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC.

由於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。

As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

因此，我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。

We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events except as required by law.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

In addition to today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables to ensure that we address as many analyst questions as possible.

除了今天的電話會議之外，除非另有說明，否則對我們業績的引用均以非公認會計準則財務指標的形式提供，並與我們的公認會計準則業績進行了協調，這些結果可以在收益發布和在補充表格中找到，以確保我們解決盡可能多的分析師問題盡可能。

During the call, we request that you limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up later this quarter.

在通話過程中，我們要求您只提出一個初始問題，並在本季度稍後提出一個後續問題。

Upstart will be participating in Citi's 2020 fourth 13th Annual Fintech Conference on February 27th, the Morgan Stanley Technology Media and Telecom Conference on March fourth and the citizens, JMP Technology Conference on March fifth.

Upstart 將參加 2 月 27 日舉行的花旗 2020 年第四屆第 13 屆年度金融科技大會、3 月 4 日舉行的摩根士丹利科技媒體和電信大會以及 3 月 5 日舉行的公民 JMP 科技大會。

Now we'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of upstart.

現在我們想把它交給新貴公司的執行長戴夫·吉魯阿德(Dave Girouard)。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

I'm Dave Gerard, Co-Founder and CEO of upstart.

我是戴夫傑拉德 (Dave Gerard)，新貴公司的共同創辦人兼執行長。

Thanks for joining us.

感謝您加入我們。

On our earnings call covering our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results.

在我們的財報電話會議上，我們討論了第四季和 2023 年全年的業績。

Despite the difficult lending environment, we delivered solid results to end the year with revenue up 4% sequentially and our third consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA without question 2023 was a challenging year for both upstart and the lending industry, and we're glad to be done with it with interest rates at their highest in decades, elevated consumer risk throughout multiple bank failures, leading to extreme caution and conservatism among lenders and a significant dislocation in capital markets, the environment presented one hurdle after another.

儘管貸款環境困難，但我們到年底仍取得了穩健的業績，收入環比增長4%，而且我們連續第三個季度調整後EBITDA 為正值，毫無疑問，2023 年對於新貴和貸款行業來說都是充滿挑戰的一年，我們很高興在利率處於數十年來最高水平的情況下，多家銀行倒閉導致消費者風險上升，導致貸款機構極度謹慎和保守，資本市場嚴重混亂，環境呈現出一個又一個障礙。

Considering the challenges 2023 presented, I'm happy with the decisions we took and the progress we made for the long-term success of upstart.

考慮到 2023 年面臨的挑戰，我對我們為新貴的長期成功所做的決定和所取得的進展感到滿意。

Looking ahead, we remain cautious about the near-term outlook for our business, and we'll continue to operate responsibly in this environment, but I'm hopeful that you'll begin to see the benefits of our work as the economy continues to normalize in 2024, the numbers will show that we've actually become far more efficient.

展望未來，我們對業務的近期前景仍然持謹慎態度，我們將繼續在這種環境下負責任地運營，但我希望隨著經濟的持續發展，您將開始看到我們工作的好處到2024 年實現正常化，數字將表明我們實際上已經變得更有效率。

And even while becoming more efficient, we've laid the groundwork to become a more resilient and diversified company that can thrive through a wide range of economic conditions.

即使在變得更有效率的同時，我們也為成為更具彈性和多元化的公司奠定了基礎，能夠在各種經濟條件下蓬勃發展。

With regard to efficiency, in Q4, we increased our contribution margin, both percentage-wise and in absolute dollars versus the year-ago quarter.

在效率方面，與去年同期相比，我們在第四季度提高了邊際貢獻率，無論是百分比還是絕對金額。

We also finished 2023 with 26% fewer headcount than at the end of 2022.

2023 年結束時，我們的員工人數比 2022 年底減少了 26%。

Despite this, we hired almost 200 new UPS starters in 2023 as we continued to strengthen our teams and reinforce our priorities, improve efficiency sets us up well for a return to profitable growth in the future, but 2023 was not all about efficiency.

儘管如此，我們在2023 年僱用了近200 名新的UPS 新員工，因為我們繼續加強我們的團隊並強化我們的優先事項，提高效率為我們未來恢復盈利增長奠定了良好的基礎，但2023 年並不全是效率。

We also focused intensely on building a stronger upstart for the future.

我們也專注於為未來打造一個更強大的新貴。

Let me share six areas where we've made significant progress recently and why I believe the lead us to a bigger and brighter future number one, managing the macro.

讓我分享我們最近取得重大進展的六個領域，以及為什麼我相信這會帶領我們走向一個更大、更光明的未來。第一，管理宏觀。

In the last two years, we experienced an economy unlike any in recent history.

過去兩年，我們經歷了近代史上前所未有的經濟。

In fact, if you look even further to the past, you'd be hard-pressed to find an economic cycle similar in form to what we've experienced since the beginning of the pandemic.

事實上，如果你進一步回顧過去，你會很難找到與我們自大流行開始以來所經歷的經濟週期類似的經濟週期。

While most of our innovation historically has been focused on selecting the right borrower at the right price, we learned that disruptions to the macro economy can reduce banks' desire to lend altogether, particularly in unsecured credit where risk is naturally greater.

雖然我們的大部分創新歷史上都集中在以合適的價格選擇合適的借款人，但我們了解到，宏觀經濟的干擾可能會降低銀行放款的意願，特別是在風險自然更大的無擔保信貸領域。

In 2023, we took on this challenge by releasing the upstart macro index, a tool that provides lenders with a clear picture of the current state of the economy and enables them to make more refined decisions about their lending programs.

2023 年，我們透過發布新貴宏觀指數來應對這項挑戰，該工具可以為貸方提供當前經濟狀況的清晰圖景，並使他們能夠就其貸款計劃做出更精細的決策。

We also developed ParAllele timing curve calibration which helps calibrate new versions of risk models faster than what was previously possible.

我們還開發了 ParAllele 時序曲線校準，有助於比以前更快校準新版本的風險模型。

While we believe predicting the economy's future is unrealistic, we do think lenders can be far more data-driven and nuanced in their decision making UMINPTCC. represent a giant first step toward offering a proprietary set of macro economic management tools that we expect banks and credit unions will demand for all of their lending program.

雖然我們認為預測經濟的未來是不切實際的，但我們確實認為貸款機構在決策時可以更加以數據為導向，更加細緻入微。這是向提供一套專有的宏觀經濟管理工具邁出的巨大第一步，我們預計銀行和信用合作社將在其所有貸款計劃中需要這些工具。

Such a tool set is vital to upstart mission because it has the potential to make appropriately priced credit readily available to more Americans in all parts of the cycle.

這樣的工具集對於新貴使命至關重要，因為它有潛力使更多美國人在整個週期的各個階段都能輕鬆獲得價格合理的信貸。

Number two, extreme automation because so much attention goes to our risk models related to credit decisioning.

第二，極端自動化，因為我們與信用決策相關的風險模型受到瞭如此多的關注。

It's often less well appreciated how much progress we've made in building a highly automated and efficient credit origination process.

人們往往不太清楚我們在建立高度自動化和高效的信貸發放流程方面取得了多大進展。

Automation and efficiency are a winning combination in any economic climate.

在任何經濟環境下，自動化和效率都是雙贏的組合。

In Q4, we once again achieved an all-time high with 89% of our unsecured loans approved through an instant and fully automated process.

第四季度，我們再次創下歷史新高，89% 的無擔保貸款透過即時且完全自動化的流程獲得批准。

So we expect this number to vary quarter to quarter.

因此，我們預計這個數字每季都會有所不同。

The long-term trend has been clear and it's a big win for us.

長期趨勢已經很明確，這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利。

We believe Process Automation is a durable advantage for upstart that creates an obviously better user experience who wouldn't want to be approved instantly for a loan rather than having to upload documents scheduled phone calls or wait hours or days for response from accredited analysts.

我們相信流程自動化對新貴來說是一個持久的優勢，它可以創造明顯更好的用戶體驗，他們不希望立即獲得貸款批准，而不必上傳預定的電話文件或等待數小時或數天以獲得認可分析師的答覆。

We believe a fast automated approval is essential to winning over borrowers who have lots of choices and little patience or time.

我們認為，快速的自動審批對於贏得有很多選擇但缺乏耐心或時間的借款人至關重要。

And these tend to be the best borrowers.

這些往往是最好的借款人。

And it's not just a better user experience in Q4, 92% of automatically approved applications converted to a funded loan.

這不僅僅是第四季度更好的用戶體驗，92% 的自動批准申請轉換為資助貸款。

While only 27% of those involving manual steps converted.

而涉及手動步驟的轉換率僅 27%。

That's an astounding difference more than three times the conversion rate, improved conversion from automation, mechanically reduces upfront costs associated with customer acquisition and data associated with generating the right offer.

這是轉換率三倍以上的驚人差異，自動化提高了轉換率，機械地降低了與客戶獲取相關的前期成本以及與產生正確報價相關的數據。

Of course, automated loans cost upstart far less to process in the verification step contributing directly to our efficiency and allowing us to pass the savings along to our lending partners.

當然，自動貸款在驗證步驟中的處理成本要低得多，直接提高了我們的效率，並使我們能夠將節省的費用轉嫁給我們的貸款合作夥伴。

We recently began to brand and market our automated approval process to applicants as fast track.

我們最近開始將我們的自動審批流程作為快速通道向申請人進行品牌推廣和行銷。

Just by presenting the benefits of fast track to applicants, we've increased our funnel conversion by more than 2%, number three, strengthening our core.

僅僅透過向申請人展示快速通道的好處，我們就將漏斗轉換率提高了 2% 以上，第三，加強了我們的核心。

We've also focused on strengthening our core personal loan product for periods of higher interest rates and elevated risk, such as we've been experiencing in recent quarters in the coming months, we expect to release an optional feature that allows borrowers to provide collateral to support their personal loan application.

我們也專注於在利率較高和風險較高的時期加強我們的核心個人貸款產品，例如我們在未來幾個月中最近幾個季度所經歷的情況，我們預計將發布一項可選功能，允許借款人提供抵押品支持他們的個人貸款申請。

This option will help borrowers access credit at lower rates than would otherwise be possible, particularly at a time when rates and risk are elevated.

這個選擇將幫助借款人以比其他方式更低的利率獲得信貸，特別是在利率和風險增加的時候。

We've also identified a somewhat different opportunity to assist our lending partners in periods of reduced liquidity when banks tend to prioritize retaining existing customers over acquiring new ones who are hard at work at developing tools and techniques to help our bank and credit union partners do just that strengthening their relationships by better serving existing customers.

我們還發現了一個不同的機會，在流動性減少的時期為我們的貸款合作夥伴提供幫助，此時銀行傾向於優先考慮保留現有客戶而不是收購新客戶，而新客戶正在努力開發工具和技術來幫助我們的銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴做更多的事情。只是透過更好地服務現有客戶來加強他們的關係。

We expect to share more about this later in 2024.

我們預計將在 2024 年稍後分享更多相關資訊。

As I mentioned last quarter, we've also upgraded our investment in servicing and collections and are hopeful we'll see dividends from this investment in 2024 and for years to come.

正如我上季度提到的，我們還升級了對服務和收藏的投資，並希望我們能在 2024 年和未來幾年看到這項投資的紅利。

The product team working on our servicing platform grew by more than 60% in Q4, much of the effort is focused on simply making it easier for borrowers to pay and for servicing agents to handle borrowers issues quickly and efficiently.

在我們的服務平台上工作的產品團隊在第四季度增長了 60% 以上，其中大部分工作都集中在讓借款人更輕鬆地付款以及讓服務代理能夠快速有效地處理借款人的問題。

But we're increasingly excited about applying our machine learning expertise to this aspect of our product as well to maximize repayment and optimize handling of borrowers who may go or have already gone delinquent.

但我們越來越興奮地將我們的機器學習專業知識應用到我們產品的這方面，以最大限度地提高還款率並優化對可能或已經拖欠的借款人的處理。

We've begun programmatically gathering the data that will unlock the type of efficiency and efficacy gains in servicing that we've long seen on the origination side and before upgrading the money supply in our first 12 years the lion's share of our innovation has been focused on AI enabled credit origination.

我們已經開始以程式方式收集數據，這些數據將釋放我們長期以來在發起人看到的服務效率和功效增益類型，在我們的頭 12 年升級貨幣供應之前，我們的大部分創新都集中在關於人工智能支援的信用發放。

In parallel, we've also developed capabilities related to efficient customer acquisition that are serving us well, but we've directed far less innovation towards the supply side of our business, i.e., the money and this needs to change today.

同時，我們也開發了與高效客戶獲取相關的能力，這些能力對我們很有幫助，但我們對業務供應方（即資金）的創新要少得多，而這一點今天需要改變。

And in the coming years, we are increasing our innovation on the money supply and have a healthy head start in this area.

未來幾年，我們將加強貨幣供應的創新力度，並在這一領域取得良好的開端。

And success in this domain means our funding across products will be more scalable, more reliable and more competitive.

在這一領域的成功意味著我們跨產品的融資將更具可擴展性、更可靠和更具競爭力。

With respect to costs.

關於成本。

We believe this innovation can be unlocked by long-term partnerships that combine novel risk sharing and returns moving structures with direct and proprietary access to our credit origination engine.

我們相信，這種創新可以透過長期合作夥伴關係來解鎖，這種合作夥伴關係將新穎的風險分擔和回報移動結構與對我們的信貸發起引擎的直接和專有訪問結合起來。

After the quarter end, we closed an agreement with Aries, a leading global alternative investment manager for them to acquire $300 million of personal loans.

季度末後，我們與全球領先的另類投資管理公司 Aries 達成了一項協議，讓他們獲得 3 億美元的個人貸款。

Additionally, we signed an agreement with a lending partner that we expect will originate approximately $500 million in loans over the next 12 months.

此外，我們還與貸款合作夥伴簽署了一項協議，預計在未來 12 個月內發放約 5 億美元的貸款。

In the five products for all environments, we're building a set of upstart offerings that are countercyclical to each other, with the goal of developing a more balanced portfolio of credit products with less volatility in overall volume.

在適用於所有環境的五種產品中，我們正在建立一系列相互反週期的新貴產品，目標是開發更平衡的信貸產品組合，整體交易量波動更小。

We're particularly excited about rapid progress in our first home lending product.

我們對我們的第一個房屋貸款產品的快速進展感到特別興奮。

I see lock this product is popular in high rate environments when consumers are reluctant to sell their home or refinance their mortgage.

我發現鎖定該產品在高利率環境中很受歡迎，因為當消費者不願意出售房屋或為抵押貸款再融資時。

We recently crossed our first $5 million in cumulative QF originations and our month-to-month growth is quite encouraging.

最近，我們的 QF 累積金額首次突破了 500 萬美元，我們的逐月成長非常令人鼓舞。

We've now expanded to 11 states plus Washington DC and expect to add a few more states in the coming weeks.

我們現已擴展到 11 個州以及華盛頓特區，並預計在未來幾週內再增加幾個州。

In Q4, our average key lock time to close was down to nine days.

第四季度，我們的平均關鍵鎖定時間縮短至九天。

This is amazing progress against our long-term goal of a five day close and already dramatically better than the industry average of more than five weeks.

與我們五天收盤的長期目標相比，這是一個驚人的進步，並且已經遠遠好於五週以上的行業平均值。

In Q4, we also launched our first instant approvals for the Healon products.

在第四季度，我們也推出了 Healon 產品的首次即時核准。

This means we're now often able to instantly verify identity income and home value without any tedious document upload or waiting.

這意味著我們現在通常能夠立即驗證身份收入和房屋價值，而無需任何繁瑣的文件上傳或等待。

We're hopeful this will become a meaningful percentage of our originations this quarter.

我們希望這將成為本季我們創始業務的一個有意義的百分比。

We expect to drive this instant approval percentage up for Helix just as we've done successfully with unsecured personal loans.

我們希望提高 Helix 的即時批准率，就像我們在無擔保個人貸款方面取得的成功一樣。

Lastly, we successfully integrated our Healon within our personal loan application.

最後，我們成功地將 Healon 整合到我們的個人貸款申請中。

This means personal loan applicants who are homeowners may be offered a home equity option in addition to an unsecured loan.

這意味著除了無擔保貸款之外，作為房主的個人貸款申請人可能還會獲得房屋淨值選擇。

This is an area ripe with opportunity, and we expect to refine and expand this product integration over time.

這是一個機會成熟的領域，我們希望隨著時間的推移完善和擴展該產品整合。

In contrast, high interest rates made 2023 a difficult year for auto lenders.

相較之下，高利率使得 2023 年對汽車貸款機構來說是艱難的一年。

Regardless, we continued to make progress with our auto offering.

無論如何，我們的汽車產品繼續取得進展。

We used the time to grow and strengthen our relationships with auto dealers.

我們利用這段時間發展並加強了與汽車經銷商的關係。

Rounding out our retail software with key features most requested by dealers.

透過經銷商最需要的關鍵功能來完善我們的零售軟體。

We also expanded our finance offering with 88 dealerships now offering upstart auto lending up from 27 a year ago.

我們也擴大了金融服務範圍，現在有 88 家經銷商提供新貴汽車貸款服務，而一年前只有 27 家。

And we recently announced that we're expanding our AI-powered financing capability nationwide, expecting to reach 90% of U.S. consumers by the end of this quarter.

我們最近宣布，我們正在全國擴大人工智慧融資能力，預計到本季末將覆蓋 90% 的美國消費者。

We're confident that steady focus on the auto vertical will be rewarded once interest rates begin to decline.

我們相信，一旦利率開始下降，對汽車垂直行業的持續關注將會得到回報。

Number six, extending upstarts AI. leadership, while the last couple of years have been challenging.

第六，擴展新貴人工智慧。領導力，而過去幾年充滿挑戰。

I believe that ultimately extended our leadership in the application of AI to lending.

我相信，這最終擴大了我們在人工智慧貸款應用方面的領導地位。

Our models learned more than at any time in our history.

我們的模型學到的知識比歷史上任何時候都多。

We've navigated extreme changes in macro conditions and built tools and capabilities to manage through such changes in the future with our small-dollar product, which I consider to be at the frontier of AI. enabled lending.

我們已經應對了宏觀條件的極端變化，並建立了工具和功能，透過我們的小美元產品來管理未來的此類變化，我認為該產品處於人工智慧的前沿。啟用貸款。

We have tripled approval rates since August, and this product now represents about 15% of first-time borrowers on the platform.

自 8 月以來，我們的批准率增加了兩倍，目前該產品約佔平台首次借款人的 15%。

This type of rapid improvement, along with increasing automation and efficiency gives me confidence that our forward progress in this domain is unparalleled.

這種快速改進，加上自動化程度和效率的提高，讓我相信我們在這領域的進步是無與倫比的。

To wrap things up, I'm pleased to share that in January, we brought up starters together in Austin, Texas to kick off 2024 with our largest upstart gathering ever, we spent significant time talking about why our mission is so vitally important, and we left with a greater sense of purpose of our work up starters across the country, a confident in undeterred by the challenges involved in pioneering AI lending because they appreciate the size of the opportunity before us and the impact that access to affordable credit can have on the lives of all Americans.

總而言之，我很高興與大家分享，一月份，我們在德克薩斯州奧斯汀召集了首發者，以我們有史以來規模最大的新貴聚會拉開2024 年的序幕，我們花了很多時間討論為什麼我們的使命如此重要，我們對全國各地的啟動者有了更大的使命感，他們有信心不會被開創性人工智慧貸款所面臨的挑戰嚇倒，因為他們認識到我們面前的機會有多大，以及獲得負擔得起的信貸可能對人們產生的影響。所有美國人的生活。

While many fintechs and even banks retreat from the lending business, we remain strongly committed to it.

儘管許多金融科技公司甚至銀行退出了貸款業務，但我們仍然堅定地致力於這項業務。

Americans will always need access to affordable credit and by continuing to serve borrowers through this difficult time, we're extending our advantage in training, data model, calibration products and process.

美國人始終需要獲得負擔得起的信貸，透過在這段困難時期繼續為借款人提供服務，我們正在擴大我們在培訓、資料模型、校準產品和流程方面的優勢。

Once the economy inevitably normalizes and lending becomes fashionable again, I believe it will be difficult for others to catch up with us.

一旦經濟不可避免地正常化，貸款再次成為時尚，我相信其他人將很難趕上我們。

We're excited for the new year and optimistic for what it holds for upstart.

我們對新的一年感到興奮，並對新貴的前景感到樂觀。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'd now like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q4 and full year 2023 financial results and guidance.

現在我想將其交給我們的財務長 Sanjay，讓他詳細介紹我們的第四季和 2023 年全年財務表現和指導。

Sanjay?

桑傑？

Thanks, Dave, and thanks all of you for joining us today.

謝謝戴夫，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

The hallmark of our economy in the second half of 2023 has been the remarkable unrelenting growth in personal consumption, which continued unabated through the balance of the year.

2023 年下半年我國經濟的標誌是個人消費的持續顯著增長，並且在這一年餘下時間裡這種增長勢頭有增無減。

This trend stands in contrast to the flagging level of disposable income, which on a real per capita basis peaked before last summer and has since languished.

這一趨勢與可支配收入低迷的水平形成鮮明對比，可支配收入的實際人均收入在去年夏天之前達到頂峰，此後一直疲軟。

These contrasting fortunes of consumption and income over the back half of last year have left personal fiscal health in as precarious state as they've been since the great financial crisis with personal savings rates hovering close to all-time lows.

去年下半年消費和收入的反差使得個人財政健康狀況與金融危機以來一樣岌岌可危，個人儲蓄率徘徊在接近歷史低點的水平。

With respect to the corresponding impact on unsecured credit performance, we continue to see clear signs that the rising default rates of lesser prime lower FICO borrowers that had played out over the past two years is now stable and showing signs of imminent recovery.

就對無擔保信貸表現的相應影響而言，我們繼續看到明顯的跡象，表明過去兩年中優質較低的 FICO 借款人的違約率不斷上升，現在已經穩定，並顯示出即將復甦的跡象。

However, the same pattern of rising defaults is now in the progress of working its way through higher cycle, higher prime borrower segments as well as primary and more secured product according to a recent report released by the New York Fed auto loans and credit cards have now spiked to their highest delinquency rates since the great financial crisis and continue to rise within unsecured lending.

然而，根據紐約聯邦儲備銀行汽車貸款和信用卡最近發布的一份報告，同樣的違約上升模式現在正在經歷更高的周期、更高的主要藉款人群體以及主要和更安全的產品。目前，拖欠率飆升至自金融危機以來的最高水平，且無擔保貸款的拖欠率持續上升。

Our view is that the near term risk in credit has shifted to the primary customer segments.

我們的觀點是，短期信貸風險已轉移至主要客戶群。

And as a result, we are becoming increasingly conservative in our underwriting of these higher cycle borrowers.

因此，我們對這些週期較​​長的借款人的承保變得越來越保守。

Funding markets continue to be oversaturated with assets on offer in the secondary markets, largely coming from banks who continue to reduce the size of their balance sheets through asset sales.

融資市場持續過度飽和，二級市場提供的資產主要來自銀行，這些銀行繼續透過資產出售來縮小資產負債表規模。

Despite these ongoing distractions, institutional loan buyers appear increasingly comfortable with the prospect of a soft economic lending or perhaps even that no lending will be required and there is an increasing anticipation of rate cuts at some point later in 2024.

儘管有這些持續的干擾，機構貸款買家似乎對經濟貸款疲軟的前景越來越滿意，甚至可能不需要貸款，人們越來越預期 2024 年稍後會出現降息。

The general outlook on the macro economy seems increasingly consistent with our own long-held view that inflation is on the wane and that significant unemployment risk in this labor market is unlikely.

宏觀經濟的整體前景似乎與我們長期以來的觀點越來越一致，即通膨正在減弱，勞動市場不太可能出現重大失業風險。

We are optimistic that our ongoing partnership efforts with the institutional funding markets will become increasingly constructive over the course of the coming year.

我們樂觀地認為，我們與機構融資市場的持續合作努力將在未來一年變得越來越具有建設性。

Should these macro trends hold examples of the partnerships that Dave announced earlier that have closed since the end of last year are hopefully indicators of more good things to come in 2024 with this environment.

這些宏觀趨勢是否能反映 Dave 早些時候宣布的自去年年底以來已結束的合作夥伴關係的例子，並有望預示著 2024 年在這種環境下將會出現更多好事。

As context to us and financial highlights from the fourth quarter of 2023, revenue from fees was $153 million in Q4, slightly above our guidance of $150 million and up from $147 million last year.

作為我們的背景和 2023 年第四季的財務亮點，第四季度的費用收入為 1.53 億美元，略高於我們 1.5 億美元的指導，高於去年的 1.47 億美元。

Net interest income was negative $13 million in Q4 with continued R&D portfolio, charge-offs in line with expectations and a downward revision to the outlook of our risk capital co-investments reflecting the deterioration in the prime borrower loan performance.

第四季淨利息收入為負 1,300 萬美元，原因是持續的研發投資組合、符合預期的沖銷以及我們風險資本共同投資前景的向下修正，反映出主要藉款人貸款業績的惡化。

Taken together, net revenue for Q4 came in at $140 million above our guidance and up 4% from the prior quarter.

總的來說，第四季的淨收入比我們的指導高出 1.4 億美元，比上一季成長 4%。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q4 was approximately 129,000 loans, up 12% sequentially and representing over 82,000 new borrowers.

第四季我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 129,000 筆貸款，比上一季成長 12%，代表超過 82,000 名新借款人。

Average loan size of $10,000 was flat versus the same period last year and down 9% sequentially.

平均貸款規模為 10,000 美元，與去年同期持平，季減 9%。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition verification and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 63% in Q4, just ahead of guidance and up 10-percentage-points from last year.

我們的貢獻率是非GAAP 指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人收購驗證和服務的可變成本，佔費用收入的百分比，第四季度為63%，略高於指導值，上升了10% -去年的分數。

As Dave highlighted, we continued to benefit from high levels of loan processing automation and fraud modeling efficiency, achieving another new high percentage of loans fully automated at 89%.

正如 Dave 所強調的那樣，我們繼續受益於高水準的貸款處理自動化和詐欺建模效率，完全自動化的貸款比例再創新高，達到 89%。

Operating expenses were $188 million in Q4, down 9% year over year, but up 5% sequentially as increasing sales and marketing expense somewhat offset efficiencies in automation and servicing costs.

第四季營運費用為 1.88 億美元，年減 9%，但環比成長 5%，因為銷售和行銷費用的增加在一定程度上抵消了自動化和服務成本的效率。

Altogether, Q4 GAAP net loss was $42 million, while adjusted EBITDA was positive $1 million, both just ahead of guidance.

總計，第四季 GAAP 淨虧損為 4,200 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為正 100 萬美元，均略高於指引。

Adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.11 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $85.6 million.

根據 8,560 萬美元的稀釋加權平均股數計算，調整後每股收益為負 0.11 美元。

We completed the full year with net revenue of $514 million, down 39% from 2022, a contribution margin of 63%, up 14-percentage-points from the prior year and adjusted EBITDA of negative $17 million representing a negative 3% adjusted EBITDA margin versus 4% a year earlier.

我們全年淨收入為 5.14 億美元，比 2022 年下降 39%，貢獻利潤率為 63%，比上年增長 14 個百分點，調整後 EBITDA 為負 1700 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為負 3%而一年前為4%。

We ended the year with loans on our balance sheet of $977 million before the consolidation of securitized loans down from $1.01 billion the prior year of that balance loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally auto loans was $411 million.

截至年底，在合併證券化貸款之前，我們資產負債表上的貸款為 9.77 億美元，低於上一年用於研發目的的餘額貸款（主要是汽車貸款）的 10.1 億美元，為 4.11 億美元。

In addition to loans held directly, we have consolidated $179 million of loans from an ABS transaction in the third quarter for which we retained a total net equity exposure of $38 million.

除了直接持有的貸款外，我們還合併了第三季來自 ABS 交易的 1.79 億美元貸款，其中我們保留了 3,800 萬美元的總淨股權曝險。

We ended the year with $368 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and approximately $590 million in net loan equity at fair value.

截至年底，我們的資產負債表上有 3.68 億美元的不受限制的現金，以公允價值計算的淨貸款權益約為 5.90 億美元。

Some amount of the core personal loans added to our balance sheet in Q4 were aggregated in anticipation of a secondary loan sale that was completed following the close of the quarter, totaling $300 million.

第四季度添加到我們資產負債表中的部分核心個人貸款是由於預計在本季度結束後完成的二次貸款銷售而匯總的，總計 3 億美元。

Despite the promising economic indicators around inflation and employment, we believe we are not yet completely out of the woods from a macro perspective, the excess money in our collective savings accounts plentiful during the stimulus years has largely been spent after accounting for the effects of inflation and with historically low savings rates, the cash account balances and the economy continue to contract.

儘管通膨和就業方面的經濟指標充滿希望，但我們認為，從宏觀角度來看，我們還沒有完全走出困境，在考慮了通貨膨脹的影響後，我們集體儲蓄帳戶中在刺激年中大量的多餘資金大部分已經被花掉了。由於儲蓄率處於歷史低位，現金帳戶餘額和經濟繼續萎縮。

As noted, we believe rising delinquencies are now making their way over to the primary and more affluent segments of the borrower base, which is causing us to increase the conservatism in our loan pricing for those borrowers, considering the lingering credit risk and keeping in mind that traditional seasonal softness in the first quarter of the year.

如前所述，我們認為，拖欠率上升現在正在向借款人的主要和較富裕群體蔓延，這導致我們在考慮到揮之不去的信用風險並牢記這些借款人的貸款定價時更加保守。今年第一季傳統的季節性疲軟。

For Q1 of 2024, we expect total revenues of approximately $125 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $133 million and net interest income of approximately negative $8 million, contribution margin of approximately 61%, net income of approximately negative $75 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $33 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately negative $25 million and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 87.0 million shares.

對於2024 年第一季度，我們預計總收入約為1.25 億美元，其中包括1.33 億美元的費用收入和約負800 萬美元的淨利息收入，貢獻率約為61%，淨利潤約為負7,500 萬美元，調整後淨利約負 3,300 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 約負 2,500 萬美元，攤薄加權平均股數約 8,700 萬股。

Having observed the stabilization and recovery of delinquency trends from lower prime borrowers.

觀察到低優質借款人拖欠趨勢的穩定和恢復。

We believed to have cause for optimism coming into the new year.

我們相信有理由對新的一年感到樂觀。

And so it has been disappointing to see how the primary borrower segments are now quickly following suit and extending the strain of the current environment.

因此，看到主要藉款人群體現在迅速效仿並擴大當前環境的壓力，令人失望。

We will, as always, continue to act in the best interest of the credit by quickly reacting to raise prices and lower conversions in these segments, confident in the belief that this will always lead to the best long-term outcome for our business.

我們將一如既往，繼續以信貸的最佳利益為出發點，對這些細分市場的提價和降低轉換率做出快速反應，並堅信這將始終為我們的業務帶來最佳的長期成果。

If the earlier arc of the less affluent borrowers is any indication.

如果較不富裕的借款人的早期曲線有任何跡象的話。

The same cycle amongst primary borrowers will soon normalize.

主要藉款人之間的相同周期很快就會正常化。

And when it does, we continue to have conviction that we will be very well positioned to capitalize continuing thanks to all of the investors who are persevering through this right.

當它發生時，我們仍然堅信，感謝所有堅持這項權利的投資者，我們將處於有利地位，可以繼續利用這一點。

With that, Dave and I are happy to open the call to any questions.

至此，戴夫和我很高興可以透過電話解答任何問題。

Operator?

操作員？

Thank you.

謝謝。

If you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad.

如果您想提問，請按下電話鍵盤上的一號星號。

If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment.

如果您使用免持電話，請確保您的靜音功能已關閉，以便您的訊號能夠到達我們的裝置。

Again, press star one to ask a question.

再按星號 1 來提問。

And our first question is going to come from Kyle Peterson from Needham.

我們的第一個問題將來自尼達姆的凱爾彼得森。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Great.

偉大的。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

And just wanted to start off on funding and what's the kind of constraint of growth right now?

只是想從資金開始，目前成長的限制是什麼？

Is the constraint right now on funding, whether it be committed capital or or, you know, other buyers are this kind of a borrower demand and getting people below that 36% threshold to see what the the different gating factors are right now?

現在資金是否受到限制，無論是承諾資本，還是其他買家的借款人需求，讓人們低於 36% 的門檻，看看現在有哪些不同的限制因素？

Kyle, this is Dave.

凱爾，這是戴夫。

I think it's there's not an obvious excess of funding or borrowers.

我認為資金或借款人並沒有明顯過剩。

It does tend to bounce back a little bit back and forth because the price, the pricing of loans so high, the approval rates are relatively low compared to our history, but it's still a funding constrained environment so it's not a definitively leaning one way or the other right now.

它確實會來回反彈，因為與我們的歷史相比，價格、貸款定價如此之高、批准率相對較低，但它仍然是一個資金緊張的環境，所以它不是一種明確的傾向或方向。另一個現在。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just a follow up on the core personal loans held on balance sheet I see that at least sequentially, it ticked up quite a bit.

然後，對資產負債表上持有的核心個人貸款進行後續跟踪，我發現至少連續一段時間，它大幅上升。

I guess adjusting for that loan sale looks like it did continue to glide down, but I guess excluding some noise in the loan sales and some of the timing issues, should we expect the core personal loans on the balance sheet to continue to run down at least outside of the committed capital or and risk-sharing agreements?

我猜對貸款銷售的調整看起來確實在繼續下滑，但我想排除貸款銷售中的一些噪音和一些時間問題，我們是否應該預期資產負債表上的核心個人貸款將繼續下降至少在承諾資本或風險分擔協議之外？

Or could that bounce around a bit?

或是可以稍微反彈一下嗎？

Hey, Kyle, this is Sanjay.

嘿，凱爾，這是桑傑。

Yes, I think one of the things we referenced is that one of the reasons we aggregated a bit more than usual in the prior quarter on our balance sheet was in anticipation of a burden on the balance sheet deal that we did that closed subsequent to the end of the quarter.

是的，我認為我們提到的一件事是，我們在上一季的資產負債表上匯總的金額比平時多一些的原因之一是預計我們在季度末。

We've disclosed it as a subsequent event, but it's a transaction that Dave Dave referenced for those that there was a $300 million transaction progress.

我們已將其作為後續事件進行披露，但 Dave Dave 為那些有 3 億美元交易進展的交易提到了這一交易。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then our next our next question is going to come from David Scharf from Citizens' JMP Securities.

接下來我們的下一個問題將來自公民 JMP 證券公司的 David Scharf。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes, good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions here, Sanjay or David, I'm wondering in light of your commentary about sort of delinquencies stabilizing or among kind of the lower tier borrowers and kind of seeing more deterioration among prime.

是的，下午好，感謝您在這裡提出我的問題，桑傑或大衛，我想知道您對低級借款人的拖欠率趨於穩定以及優質借款人的拖欠率進一步惡化的評論。

Can you remind us sort of what our over cycle mix is that you're targeting?

您能提醒我們一下您的目標是我們的整個週期組合嗎？

I mean, I know from securitization docs very often had sort of an average buy go and sort of that five seven I'm sorry, six, 76, 90 range, but can you define for us a little better sort of how you're viewing the core target borrower base right?

我的意思是，我從證券化文件中了解到，通常有一種平均購買方式，很抱歉，有5 個、7 個、6 個、76 個、90 個範圍，但是您能否為我們更好地定義一下您的購買方式？看看核心目標借款人基礎對嗎？

What sort of how you're defining?

你是怎樣定義的？

Hey, Dave, it's Sanjay here.

嘿，戴夫，我是桑傑。

And so I think that historically we've said, and I think we continue to believe that this cycle is not necessarily a great metric with which to understand our portfolio because it tends to be pretty broadly distributed across our grade mix.

所以我認為，從歷史上看，我們已經說過，而且我認為我們仍然相信，這個週期不一定是理解我們投資組合的一個很好的指標，因為它往往在我們的年級組合中分佈相當廣泛。

Now I think if you think about borrowers in general let's sit with less hassle and borrowers had become riskier over the last 18 months.

現在我認為，如果你考慮一下整體借款人，讓我們少一些麻煩，借款人在過去 18 個月裡風險變得更大。

We've certainly come in increasing your loss estimates, kicked a lot of them out of the approval box.

我們確實提高了您的損失估計，將其中的許多損失排除在審批框之外。

And so there's a less so much lower incidence of them as there has been historically.

因此，它們的發生率比歷史上低得多。

I mean, those borrowers are beginning to recover in their repayment trends.

我的意思是，這些借款人的還款趨勢開始恢復。

And now it's the more affluent borrowers that I think we're describing this turning to maybe follow suit.

現在，我認為我們所描述的這種轉向可能是更富裕的借款人效仿。

And so I think that's a dynamic that you'll see as we react to those trends through pricing.

因此，我認為當我們透過定價對這些趨勢做出反應時，您會看到這種動態。

And you'll see those mix shifts happen in our portfolio.

您會看到我們的產品組合中發生了這些組合轉變。

But I think it's a bit hard to take a broad sort of like our aggregate of our of our platform because A., they're pretty broadly distributed across grades.

但我認為，像我們平台的總體那樣進行廣泛的分類有點困難，因為A.，它們在各個年級中分佈相當廣泛。

And B. There the loss rates themselves are pretty different by funding channel, whether it's a bank or a credit union or that's collateral that does not tend to show up in the securitization data.

B. 根據融資管道的不同，損失率本身也有很大不同，無論是銀行或信用合作社，或是通常不會出現在證券化資料中的抵押品。

Whereas if you're looking at the institutional world, it tends to be sort of higher loss rate and higher returns.

然而，如果你關注機構世界，它往往是更高的損失率和更高的回報。

So I think all of that makes it a bit hard to describe our platform through a traditional lens.

因此，我認為所有這些都使得透過傳統視角描述我們的平台變得有點困難。

But hopefully, if you just think about and just sort of high level loss rates, you'll see some higher loss rate borrowers begin to recover from prior trends and lower loss rate borrowers begin to deteriorate.

但希望，如果你只考慮高​​水準的損失率，你會看到一些損失率較高的借款人開始從先前的趨勢中恢復過來，而損失率較低的借款人開始惡化。

Got it.

知道了。

It's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And maybe just as a follow-up focusing more and more near term on the Q1 guide?

也許只是作為近期越來越多地關注第一季指南的後續行動？

And how would you characterize the origination outlook in the fee revenue guide, sort of the normal seasonality that we typically see in Q1 tax refund season with non-prime borrowers usually paying down balances?

您如何描述費用收入指南中的起源前景，這是我們通常在第一季退稅季節看到的正常季節性，非優質借款人通常會償還餘額？

Or is there any kind of further tightening credit that we should read into?

或者我們應該研究任何進一步收緊信貸的情況？

Sure.

當然。

Yes, David, I think there's probably two components to call out, and one of them certainly is what you're describing, which is I think usually in Q1 you run into a bit of a slump in borrower demand as you get into tax refund season.

是的，大衛，我認為可能有兩個組成部分需要指出，其中之一肯定就是您所描述的，我認為通常在第一季度，當您進入退稅時，借款人需求會出現一些下滑季節。

And we're certainly anticipating that.

我們當然期待這一點。

I think that you could probably assume is and what we've seen on average in prior years and then the second one is what we described, which is that in fact, we are reacting to rising loss or sort of default trends in the primary borrower base by increasing loss estimates and reducing conversions a bit.

我認為你可能會假設是我們在前幾年平均看到的情況，然後第二個是我們所描述的，即事實上，我們正​​在對主要藉款人的損失上升或違約趨勢做出反應通過增加損失估計並稍微減少轉換來實現。

And those two things combined probably make up the gap or the bridge to our Q1 guide.

這兩件事結合起來可能彌補了我們第一季指南的差距或橋樑。

Great.

偉大的。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Dennis.

謝謝，丹尼斯。

And our next question is going to come from Ramsey El-Assal from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將由巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·阿薩爾（Ramsey El-Assal）提出。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, Joan.

嗨，瓊。

Thank you for taking my question this evening.

感謝您今晚回答我的問題。

I was wondering if you could comment on the on-balance sheet loans and that amount and whether we should given more committed capital that you're securing, whether we should expect that maybe next year too, come down from levels that we're seeing now or whether this is sort of where going to live for a while.

我想知道您是否可以對資產負債表內貸款及其金額發表評論，以及我們是否應該提供您所獲得的更多承諾資本，我們是否應該期望明年也能從我們所看到的水平下降現在或者這是否是要居住一段時間的地方。

Sanjay again?

又是桑傑？

Yes, I think there's maybe sort of two factors to call out with respect to our loan balance at the end of the year on one, which is true the prior quarter, as well as that, we have as you know, we've consolidated on a recent ABS deal, a deal from 2023, and that sort of sits as an additional component of our balance sheet.

是的，我認為，關於我們年末的貸款餘額，可能有兩個因素需要注意，一個是上一季度，而且，正如你所知，我們已經合併了最近的一項ABS 交易（一項2023 年的交易）是我們資產負債表的附加組成部分。

It's not really anything we have economic basis in our or I guess we have a much smaller economic basis and then the full amount of the consolidation.

這其實不是我們有經濟基礎的東西，或者我想我們的經濟基礎要小得多，然後是全額整合。

So that's one ongoing factor.

所以這是一個持續的因素。

The other one, which we just alluded to is that we've sort of announced that prior to or after the end of the quarter, subsequent to the end of the quarter, we've completed a balance sheet transaction with a institutional funding partner that was on the order of $300 million.

我們剛才提到的另一個問題是，我們已經宣布，在季度末之前或之後，在季度末之後，我們已經與一家機構融資合作夥伴完成了一項資產負債表交易，價值約3億美元。

And during Q4, we were aggregating loans in anticipation of that deal closing.

在第四季度，我們正在匯總貸款，以預期交易完成。

And so a lot of those loans are now off of our balance sheet.

因此，這些貸款中有很多現在已經不在我們的資產負債表上了。

As far as how to think about the go forward?

至於如何思考未來的發展呢？

I think you're right, as we on as we hopefully have more to announce with respect to committed capital deals on those will obviously supplant our balance sheet and take on more of the of the of the volume.

我認為你是對的，因為我們希望有更多關於承諾資本交易的消息要宣布，這些交易顯然會取代我們的資產負債表並承擔更多的交易量。

And then separately, we were always interested in finding sources of liquidity for existing balance sheet.

另外，我們始終對尋找現有資產負債表的流動性來源感興趣。

And that's just really just a function of where pricing and returns are in the market.

這實際上只是市場定價和回報的函數。

And so those I think two things combined will determine to what extent we are able to reduce our balance sheet over the coming quarters.

因此，我認為這兩件事結合起來將決定我們在未來幾季將能夠在多大程度上減少資產負債表。

But it's okay.

不過沒關係。

A follow-up for me.

我的後續行動。

I wanted to ask about auto loans on Slide 23, it looks like the number there declined and pretty significantly again quarter over quarter.

我想詢問幻燈片 23 上的汽車貸款情況，看起來那裡的數量有所下降，而且逐季顯著下降。

I guess two questions there.

我想有兩個問題。

When do you expect that to maybe bottom out and begin growing again.

您預計什麼時候會觸底並再次開始增長。

And then secondarily, is there a business risks that you are auto customers get turned off because your approval rates are quite a bit lower than they were, is there any kind of ancillary business risk of managing the credit side of the business?

其次，是否存在業務風險，即您作為汽車客戶會因為您的支持率比以前低很多而被拒絕，是否存在管理業務信貸方面的任何輔助業務風險？

One is you're trying to build the business.

一是你正在努力建立業務。

I'm sorry, good question.

對不起，好問題。

Let's just say obviously, rates have been very high in the auto lending world, both because interest rates are high and because of price of cars is very high.

顯然，汽車貸款領域的利率非常高，既因為利率高，又因為汽車價格非常高。

So I think that has really contributed to an environment where the volume is down.

所以我認為這確實導致了成交量下降的環境。

And we are very careful working with a fairly tight group of dealers that we work on lending with.

我們與一批相當緊密的貸款經銷商合作非常謹慎。

And we're very aware that we need a certain throughput with each of these dealers.

我們非常清楚，我們需要與每個經銷商保持一定的吞吐量。

So it's some something we do manage carefully.

所以這是我們確實謹慎管理的事情。

We've done a lot with our software beyond lending.

除了貸款之外，我們還利用我們的軟體做了很多事情。

So I think there's a lot of value we are delivering to these dealerships irrespective of the loan volume going to our part of the platform, managing their online parts of their business as well as the in-store process of selling cars.

因此，我認為，無論流向我們平台部分的貸款量、管理他們業務的線上部分以及店內銷售汽車的流程如何，我們都為這些經銷商提供了大量價值。

So there's a lot more to what we do for dealers then just the loan.

因此，除了貸款之外，我們還為經銷商做很多事情。

So we feel pretty good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

Fantastic.

極好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And our next question is going to come from Peter Christiansen from Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Peter Christiansen。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good evening.

晚安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

And Dave, I just want to follow up on Randy's comments, which I think is important as we think about your forward flow agreements and the innovation that you're looking to unlock there does having an equity stake in some of these forward flow agreements, is that should we think of that as par for the course?

戴夫，我只想跟進蘭迪的評論，我認為這很重要，因為我們考慮您的遠期流量協議以及您希望在那裡解鎖的創新，確實在其中一些遠期流量協議中擁有股權，我們應該將其視為課程的標準嗎？

Is that going to be a regular feature going forward or I it or is it the opposite of that over time.

這是否會成為未來的常規功能，或者隨著時間的推移，它會變得相反嗎？

You just really want to reduce that balance sheet exposure altogether?

您真的想完全減少資產負債表風險嗎？

And good question.

好問題。

And I think we generally think that we're headed in the direction of having a number of large, our long-term relationships where the risk risk-sharing and alignments structured into the process.

我認為我們普遍認為我們正朝著建立大量大型長期關係的方向發展，將風險分擔和協調納入流程中。

And we think this is both necessary and important to having that type of relationship and having the capital committed over long periods of time.

我們認為這對於建立這種關係並長期投入資金來說既必要又重要。

So we are exploring different structures to those and some participation in those.

因此，我們正在探索不同的結構以及對這些結構的一些參與。

But I think this is the nature of what we believe will be important and necessary to have long-term funding partnerships with the types of partners that can really help us.

但我認為，這就是我們認為與真正能夠幫助我們的合作夥伴建立長期資助夥伴關係的重要和必要的本質。

We scaled this business and get to where we were and far beyond.

我們擴大了這項業務，並達到了我們所處的水平，甚至遠遠超出了我們的水平。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Appreciate that color.

欣賞那個顏色。

And then just a follow-up, maybe this is for Sanjay.

然後是後續行動，也許這是給 Sanjay 的。

How should we I mean, obviously, there's a lot of forecasts out there, some of them predicting two, three Fed cuts this year, that kind of level.

我的意思是，顯然，有很多預測，其中一些預測聯準會今年會降息兩次、三次，這種水準。

How should we think about them?

我們該如何看待他們？

The conversion, the conversion rate ratio, conversion number kind of being impacted, should we start seeing 25 basis points, 50 basis points?

轉換、轉換率、轉換數量都會受到影響，我們是否應該開始看到 25 個基點、50 個基點？

Those kind of chunk type of cuts is there?

有那種大塊類型的切割嗎？

Is there any way that we rule of thumb that we should think about should that happen later this year,

如果今年稍後發生這種情況，我們有什麼經驗法則可以考慮嗎？

AP, I mean, the interest rate reductions would obviously be helpful to conversion.

AP，我的意思是，降息顯然有助於轉換。

And I think the extent to which it improves conversion is a bit dependent on, let's call it the premise of the borrower.

我認為它提高轉換率的程度有點依賴借款人的前提。

I think maybe a rough rule of thumb in aggregate could be for 100 basis point reduction something on the order of 10% to 15% relative conversion boost, but that will vary by borrower type.

我認為，總體而言，粗略的經驗法則可能是減少 100 個基點，相對轉換率提升約 10% 至 15%，但這會因借款人類型而異。

Sure, sure.

一定一定。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Super helpful.

超有幫助。

Thank you, Bea, and our next question is going to come from walk Rob Wildhack from Autonomous Research.

謝謝你，Bea，我們的下一個問題將來自自治研究中心的 Rob Wildhack。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

I wanted to ask about the $300 million loan sale, two areas could you comment on the terms associated with that sale?

我想問一下有關 3 億美元貸款出售的問題，您能否對與該出售相關的條款發表評論？

What was the execution price and if there's any risk sharing associated with that?

執行價格是多少？是否有與之相關的風險分擔？

Yes, Rob, yes, we don't we don't have anything I think, right to announce the terms other than I think we're very excited about that partnership and where we can take it.

是的，羅布，是的，我們沒有，我們沒有任何我認為有權宣布的條款，除了我認為我們對這種夥伴關係以及我們可以採取的方式感到非常興奮。

And it was a good deal for both sides.

這對雙方來說都是一筆好交易。

And I think it's kind of a structure in which we will on a sort of an ongoing relationship in terms of the performance of VIA of the collateral and hopefully over time, we can convert that into this as a first step into a much broader relationship.

我認為這是一種結構，在這種結構中，我們將在VIA 抵押品的表現方面建立一種持續的關係，並希望隨著時間的推移，我們可以將其轉變為這種結構，作為建立更廣泛關係的第一步。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Sanjay, maybe one for you or another one for you.

然後，Sanjay，也許一個適合你，或者另一個適合你。

Unrestricted cash was there was almost $400 million at the end of the period, but also finished.

期末不受限制的現金接近 4 億美元，但也已結束。

Yes, I think as low as it's been since March 2021.

是的，我認為這是自 2021 年 3 月以來的最低水準。

So how how you think about the cash needed for, quote unquote run the business purposes?

那麼，您如何看待經營業務所需的現金呢？

And then how should we think about cash generation going forward in the context of the new outlook for negative adjusted EBITDA and earnings in the first quarter?

那麼，在第一季調整後 EBITDA 和收益為負值的新前景背景下，我們該如何思考未來的現金產生？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Rob.

謝謝你的提問，羅布。

But I guess first of all, just in thinking about our balance of cash, again, I think it was probably a little bit low in loans on a balance.

但我想首先，考慮到我們的現金餘額，我認為貸款餘額可能有點低。

You were a little bit high compared to normal as a result of this transaction and subsequent to the close of the of the of the year we executed the transaction and loans on the balance sheet are now lower and cash is higher, and I think we're in a pretty good range right now.

由於這次交易，與正常情況相比，你的價格有點高，在我們執行交易的那一年結束後，資產負債表上的貸款現在較低，現金較高，我認為我們'現在處於一個相當不錯的範圍內。

With respect to the cash we have on hand with respect to the operating sort of future of the business, we have guided and negative EBITDA for Q1.

就我們手頭上的現金以及未來業務的營運情況而言，我們對第一季的 EBITDA 進行了指導，並且為負值。

I think some of that, you know, a consistent with the guide itself.

我認為其中一些內容與指南本身是一致的。

Some of that is seasonal.

其中一些是季節性的。

We are in the seasonal trough of the year.

我們正處於一年中的季節性低谷。

So we expect some of that to rebound.

因此，我們預計其中一些會反彈。

Beyond that, there is also the fair value is the one part of our EBITDA that is non-cash, but it does impact EBITDA.

除此之外，公允價值是我們 EBITDA 中非現金的一部分，但它確實會影響 EBITDA。

And so I think some of our some of our guide for Q1 is impacted by the, let's call it, the OEM, the delinquency trends we refer to in the primary segment of the borrower base, which is affecting our fair value marks.

因此，我認為我們第一季的一些指南受到了 OEM 的影響，我們在藉款人基礎的主要部分中提到了拖欠趨勢，這正在影響我們的公允價值標記。

And so some of the EBITDA is seasonal.

因此，部分 EBITDA 是季節性的。

Some of it is non-cash.

其中一些是非現金的。

And I guess I'd say more generally, and we've always demonstrated a history of being bottom line focused in running the business responsibly.

我想我會更籠統地說，我們一直以來都展現了注重負責任地經營業務的底線的歷史。

And our intention is to get back to EBITDA breakeven slightly positive as quickly as possible.

我們的目的是盡快恢復 EBITDA 損益平衡點。

So I think if we can accomplish that.

所以我想如果我們能做到這一點。

And certainly the cash balances we have on hand, certainly post the transaction that we announced with Aries or no are comfortable.

當然，我們手頭上的現金餘額，無論是否與白羊座宣布的交易，都令人放心。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And our next question is going to come from Simon Clinch with Redbird read, Redfern Atlantic, please.

我們的下一個問題將由西蒙·克林奇（Simon Clinch）提出，雷德伯德讀《雷德芬大西洋》（Redfern Atlantic）。

Yes, hi, guys.

是的，嗨，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I wanted to follow up on the question about committed capital.

我想跟進有關承諾資本的問題。

Actually and just if we take a step back and think about what the announcements you've made, the relationships you've built, how should we think about that the current and the potential I guess, quarterly cadence of committed capital that you can build?

事實上，如果我們退後一步，想想你發布的公告，你建立的關係，我們應該如何考慮當前和潛力，我猜，你可以建立的承諾資本的季度節奏？

Because I think the original case was that you were looking to build enough committed capital on a sort of run rate basis on a regular basis to allow you to be breakeven or whatever the cycles.

因為我認為最初的情況是，您希望定期在某種運行率的基礎上建立足夠的承諾資本，以使您能夠實現盈虧平衡或任何週期。

So I just wonder if you could just update on tablets, some figures around it, please.

所以我只是想知道你是否可以在平板電腦上更新一些關於它的數據。

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, this is Sanjay.

我是說，這是桑傑。

So yes, I think we'll I'll reiterate what we said in prior cycles, which is, I think, a rough rule of thumb for run rate is half of our origination volume was supported by committed capital.

所以，是的，我想我們會重申我們在之前的周期中所說的話，我認為運行率的粗略經驗法則是我們的發起量的一半是由承諾資本支持的。

We think that's a good start.

我們認為這是一個好的開始。

And I think that's roughly where we are right now.

我認為這大致上就是我們現在的處境。

Obviously, our levels of originations over the past couple of quarters and guiding into next have not grown substantially.

顯然，過去幾季我們的原創水準和下一季的引導水準並沒有大幅成長。

So that the capital we have on hand is sufficient to create that to create that sort of foundation.

因此，我們手邊的資本足以創造這樣的基礎。

Obviously, as we rescale the business, as we would hope to this year, we're going to have to own scale that committed capital base in importance.

顯然，當我們重新調整業務規模時，正如我們今年所希望的那樣，我們將必須擴大承諾資本基礎的重要性。

And I think that we're pretty optimistic we'll be able to do that.

我認為我們對能夠做到這一點非常樂觀。

I think that just in terms of the shape and texture of the deals, as Dave said, I'll just reiterate, I think we view this as having a relatively small number of large sort of committed bilateral relationships that we can grow into and grow with as the business grows.

我認為，就交易的形式和結構而言，正如戴夫所說，我只是重申一下，我認為我們認為，我們可以建立和發展數量相對較少的大型承諾雙邊關係隨著業務的增長。

And I think that the kinds of names we've talked about with respect to the deals and transactions we've done are the kinds of partners we can grow into over time as the models prove out and as the partnerships mature.

我認為，隨著時間的推移，隨著模型的證明和合作夥伴關係的成熟，我們所談論的關於我們已經完成的交易和交易的合作夥伴類型就是我們可以成長為的合作夥伴類型。

So I think some of this is doing additional deals, but some of this will be growing the size of those deals as long-term partnerships over time as the business regains its prior scale.

因此，我認為其中一些是進行額外的交易，但隨著時間的推移，隨著業務恢復到先前的規模，其中一些將擴大這些交易的規模，作為長期合作夥伴關係。

Okay, that's great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just as a follow-up question, I'm just wondering if there is a scope and interest in developing, we're leveraging your technology expertise and capabilities to develop new lines of business that are more recurring in nature and less transactional?

作為一個後續問題，我只是想知道是否有開發的範圍和興趣，我們正在利用您的技術專業知識和能力來開發本質上更頻繁且交易性更少的新業務線？

And how big could something like that four for now?

那麼現在這四個東西能有多大呢？

It's a good question.

這是一個好問題。

Simon.

西蒙.

And we're certainly aware that having a volatile sort of source of revenue has its downsides for sure.

我們當然知道，收入來源不穩定肯定有其缺點。

And so we are keenly interested in having a more predictable revenue.

因此，我們對獲得更可預測的收入非常感興趣。

And um, and in fact, some of it not based on sort of lending volume per se.

嗯，事實上，其中一些並不是基於貸款量本身。

I mean, the first step, of course, is to have products that will tend to be countercyclical to each other.

我的意思是，第一步當然是擁有彼此反週期的產品。

And that's definitely something as we mentioned, we're very excited about our Healon product as being one that is actually very popular in high rate environments like we have today.

這絕對是我們提到的，我們對 Healon 產品感到非常興奮，因為它實際上在像我們今天這樣的高速率環境中非常受歡迎。

So there's just a product mix question there.

所以這只是一個產品組合問題。

And then there's also we do believe there's opportunities where there's more straightforward fees for technology and such as we do.

此外，我們確實相信存在更直接的技術費用的機會，就像我們所做的那樣。

We do make modest fees that we charge to car dealerships today.

今天，我們確實向汽車經銷商收取適度的費用。

And we will certainly explore other ways to monetize our technology.

我們肯定會探索其他方法來將我們的技術貨幣化。

But I think the broader gets with more products, it covers et cetera.

但我認為更多的產品會帶來更廣泛的影響，它涵蓋了等等。

And that's certainly possible.

這當然是可能的。

And I would just also highlight, you know, we've shown, I think, some pretty amazing ability to automate credit origination entirely separate from whose credit model is being used and that itself has a lot of value to it.

我還要強調，你知道，我認為我們已經展示了一些相當驚人的自動化信用起源的能力，完全獨立於正在使用的信用模型，而且它本身就具有很大的價值。

So as we've done that in personal lending, we're beginning to do that both in auto and Humalog.

正如我們在個人貸款領域所做的那樣，我們也開始在汽車和 Humalog 領域這樣做。

Those sort of automation capabilities.

這些自動化功能。

I do think at least have the potential to be unbundled and available because they create a much, much better user experience, regardless of was pricing models.

我確實認為至少有可能被分拆並可用，因為它們創造了更好的用戶體驗，無論定價模式如何。

Our risk models are being used elsewhere.

我們的風險模型正在其他地方使用。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for that color.

謝謝那個顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And our next call for next caller is going to be John from Jefferies.

我們的下一個來電者將是來自 Jefferies 的約翰。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good afternoon, guys.

下午好，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First one's, I guess just sort of the counting, I mean, the securitization that you're consolidating on the balance sheet, do you guys just and from an asset liability perspective, show kind of the net residual value in the assets?

第一個，我想只是計數，我的意思是，你們在資產負債表上合併的證券化，你們是否只是從資產負債的角度來看，顯示了資產的淨殘值？

Or how do we think about it from an asset liability perspective on an accounting basis?

或者我們如何從會計基礎上的資產負債角度來思考？

And then does the interest income and interest expense flow through the P&L related to that securitization as well?

那麼利息收入和利息支出是否也流經與該證券化相關的損益表？

Yes, John, this is Sanjay.

是的，約翰，這是桑傑。

So on the balance sheet on the securitization is not shown on a net basis, it's shown on a gross basis.

因此，資產負債表上的證券化不是以淨額顯示的，而是以毛額顯示的。

So the full amount of the assets of the securitization are in our asset line and the full amount of the liabilities are in our liability line.

因此，證券化的資產全額計入我們的資產線，全額的負債計入我們的負債線。

And with respect to the P&L, I think ultimately it is the net impact that shows up because you're getting interest revenue and interest expense, both hitting net is net interest income.

就損益表而言，我認為最終會出現淨影響，因為你會得到利息收入和利息支出，兩者的淨值都是淨利息收入。

And so on the face of the P&L, you're just going to see the net of that in the net interest income line.

因此，從損益表的表面來看，您只會在淨利息收入行中看到淨額。

I think if you were to look in the note of net for net interest income and look at the specific revenue and expense line items within interest income, you would see in the gross numbers, but they're not on the face of the P&L.

我認為，如果您查看淨利息收入的淨額註釋，並查看利息收入中的具體收入和支出項目，您會在總數字中看到，但它們不在損益表上。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Dave, I think you mentioned some starting to get collateral in the installment loans.

然後，戴夫，我想你提到了一些人開始在分期貸款中獲得抵押品。

Yes.

是的。

I'm wondering from a contractual and then just a physical basis, if you can give us some more information about how that might look?

我想知道從合約和物理基礎來看，您是否可以向我們提供更多有關其外觀的資訊？

Yes.

是的。

Generally speaking, one of the things we're moving toward is really a single application for credit where the resulting loan that might be the best one for the borrower could be an unsecured loan.

一般來說，我們正在努力實現的目標之一是真正的單一信貸申請，其中對借款人來說可能是最好的貸款可能是無擔保貸款。

It could be one secured by some asset maybe an auto or something else.

它可能是由某種資產（可能是汽車或其他東西）擔保的。

It could also be a home equity loan.

它也可能是房屋淨值貸款。

And depending on who the person is the use case, how much cash you're looking for, but doing that through one product I think is really helpful because it allows borrowers to kind of see different choices.

取決於用例的人是誰，您需要多少現金，但我認為透過一種產品來做到這一點確實很有幫助，因為它允許借款人看到不同的選擇。

Also collateralized loans.

還有抵押貸款。

Generally speaking, you're going to get lower rates.

一般來說，您會得到較低的利率。

So that there's this trade-off there, you might have a better product at a better rate and or be able to borrow more if it makes sense for a home renovation or something like that.

因此，存在這種權衡，您可能會以更好的利率獲得更好的產品，或者如果對於家庭裝修或類似的事情有意義的話，您可以藉更多的錢。

So I think that's pretty unique.

所以我認為這是非常獨特的。

Most of what we see in the market are products that you apply individually for different types of loans.

我們在市場上看到的大多數產品都是您單獨申請不同類型貸款的產品。

And this is really aimed at being able to give the best product to the person with all the right trade-off and in one really fast efficient experience.

這實際上是為了能夠透過所有正確的權衡和一種真正快速且有效率的體驗，為人們提供最好的產品。

So you would be, in other words, you'd be getting collateral and then you could make a loan of a different type.

換句話說，您將獲得抵押品，然後您可以發放不同類型的貸款。

We just have we're having that collateral as a backstop.

我們只是有抵押品作為後盾。

It's really yes, the application process would be somewhat neutral to what type of loan you may get?

確實是的，申請過程對您可能獲得的貸款類型會有些中性？

And then you may get a two or even three different offers an unsecured loan or loan secured by your car, maybe a home equity loan core secured by our home, so the pastas.

然後你可能會得到兩個甚至三個不同的報價，無擔保貸款或由你的汽車擔保的貸款，也許是由我們的房屋擔保的房屋淨值貸款核心，所以意大利麵。

So there may be some trade-offs and choices between those.

因此，它們之間可能存在一些權衡和選擇。

And that will be presented hopefully as clearly as possible to the applicant.

希望盡可能清楚地向申請人展示這一點。

And that just means we think we can make our funnel conversion higher by having better choices available to one simple process.

這只是意味著我們認為我們可以透過為一個簡單的流程提供更好的選擇來提高我們的通路轉換率。

And that's something we're just starting down the road of we mentioned in the remarks earlier that our Healon product is now being surfaced within what we thought of as our personal loan application.

這就是我們剛開始的事情，我們在前面的評論中提到，我們的 Healon 產品現在正在我們認為的個人貸款申請中浮出水面。

And that's kind of the sort of direction we're headed is being kind of borrower centric in terms of their choices and trade-offs as opposed to being product-centric.

這就是我們前進的方向，即在選擇和權衡方面以藉款人為中心，而不是以產品為中心。

And we think there is just a lot of opportunity for improvement in that area.

我們認為該領域還有很多改進的機會。

I got it.

我得到了它。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

And our next question is going to come from our bond, Ron Minami from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自我們的朋友，Piper Sandler 的 Ron Minami。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

I think so I think my questions are going to the first question really is kind of relative to sort of, like, you know, what we're expecting towards towards the end of last year towards versus how things are shaping out or beginning of the year.

我認為是的，我認為我的第一個問題實際上與我們對去年年底的預期以及事情的發展或開始的情況有關。年。

Did I hear correctly on the call you said that down kind of things have kind of deteriorated or kind of in line.

我在電話中聽得對嗎，你說的是羽絨外套的情況有所惡化或有所改善。

That's how you have been thinking about things.

這就是你一直在思考的事情。

Irene, this is Dave.

艾琳，這是戴夫。

I think things have gone to a large extent.

我認為事情已經發展到很大程度了。

The way we kind of suggested even a year ago.

就像我們一年前建議的。

And that was that less prime, lower income folks were being hit earlier.

那就是那些不太優質、低收入的人更早受到打擊。

And then during 2023 really began to improve and reemerge.

然後在 2023 年，情況才真正開始改善並重新出現。

And there was a belief that people at higher incomes, higher FICOs were going to be affected later.

人們相信，收入較高、FICO 較高的人稍後會受到影響。

And that's really well what we've seen more recently.

這確實是我們最近看到的情況。

So in the grand scheme of things, it's really gone the way we expected.

所以從整體來看，事情確實按照我們的預期進行了。

And I think we communicated our expectations there and you can see that in the Fed numbers that were released, I think, just last week.

我認為我們在那裡傳達了我們的預期，你可以在上週發布的聯準會數據中看到這一點。

So it is an unusual situation to have default rates of credit cards and auto loans.

因此，信用卡和汽車貸款出現違約率是一個不尋常的情況。

You know, at their highest since the great financial crisis, yet unemployment remains quite low.

你知道，失業率處於金融危機以來的最高水平，但失業率仍然很低。

So it's not a typical scenario that anybody has seen out there.

所以這不是任何人都見過的典型場景。

But having said that, in our models of doing the right things, they're tightening and count recalibrating constantly.

但話雖如此，在我們做正確事情的模型中，它們正在收緊並不斷重新校準。

And we're very hopeful that this will be the year where this will get put behind us.

我們非常希望今年這一問題能夠被拋在腦後。

And you know, I think there's good reason to believe it's a faster trip to a correction for prime or borrowers who are employed, et cetera.

你知道，我認為有充分的理由相信，對於主要貸款人或就業借款人等來說，這是一次更快的修正之旅。

And all of that to us looks pretty solid.

所有這些對我們來說看起來都很可靠。

Great.

偉大的。

And then as you look out for rest of the year, you said you have the deal gets behind you is you're talking about 24 or 23.

然後，當你展望今年剩餘時間時，你說你已經在談論 24 或 23 日的交易了。

And I'm sure you're referring to 2023.

我確定你指的是 2023 年。

I think we're up again.

我想我們又起來了。

I think I'd look at despite the near-term noise, I think we're all very optimistic about 2020 for as long as a year.

我認為，儘管近期存在一些噪音，但我認為我們對 2020 年長達一年的時間都非常樂觀。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, yes, that's what I thought I just wanted to clarify.

是的，是的，這就是我想澄清的。

And then when do you think you'll be in a better position to kind of reinstate like annual guidance or you'd kind of are you just aren't in a position to really talk about that.

然後你認為你什麼時候才能更好地恢復年度指導，或者你只是無法真正談論這一點。

I think when there's a lot of things that are outside our hands, you know, the Fed's moves interest rates and whether inflation is, in fact tamed or is going to reemerge, et cetera.

我認為，當有很多事情超出我們的控制範圍時，你知道，聯準會會調整利率，以及通膨是否實際上受到抑製或是否會重新出現，等等。

The sort of precarious situation, we think a lot of American consumers are in financially where they're still spending more than they probably should given their income.

在這種不穩定的情況下，我們認為許多美國消費者在財務上的支出仍然超過了他們應有的收入。

So there's a bunch of things out there that we don't control and they're pretty important to our business as it exists today.

因此，有很多事情是我們無法控制的，但它們對我們今天的業務非常重要。

We're certainly working toward being less dependent on those.

我們當然正在努力減少對這些的依賴。

But the reality of today is those matter a lot to us.

但今天的現實是這些對我們來說非常重要。

And so we would really want to be in a more of a steady-state place economically.

因此，我們確實希望經濟處於更穩定的狀態。

And we're just not there yet.

但我們還沒有做到這一點。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

And our next question is going to come from James Faucette from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福賽特。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

I think I wanted to just touch really quickly on OpEx levels.

我想我想快速觸及營運支出水準。

It sounds like you feel some that the environment in and the potential quick rebound in more prime type borrowers could rebound pretty quickly.

聽起來你覺得一些優質類型借款人的環境和潛在的快速反彈可能會很快反彈。

And so as of now it doesn't sound like you're anticipating any OpEx on trimming or I just want to make sure I understand that correctly.

因此，到目前為止，您似乎並沒有預期任何調整方面的營運支出，或者我只是想確保我正確理解這一點。

And when you talked about getting back to EBITDA breakeven.

當你談到恢復 EBITDA 損益平衡時。

Is that or is that something that you're as a result anticipating should happen this year, roughly, or are we thinking more into next year once we've had the ability for stabilizing environment to really take hold.

這是或是您預計今年應該發生的事情，或者，一旦我們有能力真正穩定環境，我們是否會更多地考慮明年的情況。

Yes.

是的。

Hey, James.

嘿，詹姆斯。

Sanjay, I'm yes, thanks for the question.

桑傑，我是的，謝謝你的提問。

And I think as I said, I think there's maybe a couple of factors weighing on our Q1 EBITDA guide, what are the seasonality itself and which is just a headwind to volumes for a quarter.

我認為正如我所說，我認為可能有幾個因素影響我們第一季的 EBITDA 指南，季節性本身是什麼，以及這只是季度銷售的不利因素。

So one of them is the fact that there is this fair value component to EBITDA, which is non-cash, but that in turn, is impacted by some of the default trends we're seeing out there, in particular on the primary side.

其中之一是 EBITDA 存在公允價值成分，它是非現金的，但反過來又受到我們看到的一些預設趨勢的影響，特別是在初級方面。

So hopefully those things are transitory.

所以希望這些事情是暫時的。

I guess the answer to your broader question is we would absolutely hope to make our way back to EBITDA breakeven this year.

我想你的更廣泛問題的答案是我們絕對希望今年能夠恢復 EBITDA 盈虧平衡。

It's an important priority for us state that there are certain things out of our control.

對我們來說，有一個重要的優先事項是，有些事情是我們無法控制的。

But as long as some of these things subside and we can see a clear path to a recovering from them then I think that that will provide a clear path back to breakeven.

但只要其中一些事情消退，我們就能看到一條清晰的復甦之路，那麼我認為這將為恢復盈虧平衡提供一條清晰的道路。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

And then in terms of like the particularly on the primer and are you guys react I think the comments on the seasonality are clear, but can you give us a sense of how recently you started to make your adjustments on what you're doing from a primer perspective and And Bill, whether its impact is that reset in here and maybe February or differently start even at the end of last year?

然後，就底漆上的特別內容而言，你們有什麼反應嗎？我認為對季節性的評論很清楚，但是您能否讓我們了解一下您最近是如何開始對正在做的事情進行調整的？引子觀點和比爾，它的影響是否是在這裡重置，也許是二月，甚至在去年年底就以不同的方式開始？

Again, I would say that in rough terms, I think we noticed this starting to happen at the end of last year.

我再說一遍，粗略地說，我認為我們注意到這種情況在去年年底開始發生。

And by this year early, they were sort of persistent enough that we reacted.

到了今年年初，他們的堅持足以讓我們做出反應。

Okay.

好的。

So sorry, it was early on in the quarter, not just something last couple of weeks.

很抱歉，這是本季初期的事情，而不僅僅是過去幾週的事情。

I guess I mean, we're only six weeks into the course contract.

我想我的意思是，我們的課程合約只剩下六週了。

So yes, it was the it was not it wasn't January the first coming off the New Year's Eve party.

所以，是的，這不是一月除夕派對的第一天。

But it's I think we were rightly been watching this say last year.

但我認為去年我們正確地關注了這個說法。

And I think that yes, it takes a few weeks for it to be and for us to react to it some.

我認為是的，我們需要幾週的時間才能對此做出反應。

Okay, that's great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

And our next question is going to come from Michael Ng from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Michael Ng。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good afternoon.

嘿，下午好。

Thanks for the question and a follow-up to some of the questions about the outlook for the rest of the year.

感謝您提出這個問題，並對今年剩餘時間前景的一些問題進行了跟進。

But perhaps you could just talk a little bit about the visibility that you might have in origination volume and recovery throughout the rest of 2024.

但也許您可以稍微談談 2024 年剩餘時間裡您可能在原始數量和恢復方面的可見性。

Should one to be the low watermark because of the seasonality piece?

是否應該因為季節性作品而成為低水印？

And is there anything that you saw as it relates to the stabilization in the lower prime borrowers that might be a helpful framework to think about when we should see more stabilization and potential recovery on the from our side.

您是否看到了與低優質借款人的穩定相關的任何內容，這可能是一個有用的框架，可以幫助我們思考何時應該看到我們方面更加穩定和潛在的復甦。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And I think come it's a good question.

我認為這是一個很好的問題。

I would just see the pandemics, the strange pandemic effects of stimulus and subsequent the stimulus, we're fairly profound and they hit first and hardest to lesser prime lower-income people.

我只會看到流行病、刺激措施產生的奇怪的流行病影響以及隨後的刺激措施，我們的影響相當深遠，它們首先對次要的低收入人群造成了最嚴重的打擊。

And we did see that improved so that that sort of suggests there's a bit of a mania or some form of mania, maybe when someone has too much cash and inability to spend it that they develop some habits that don't make sense long term and and then they recover from them.

我們確實看到這種情況有所改善，因此這表明存在某種狂熱或某種形式的狂熱，也許當某人擁有太多現金且無力消費時，他們會養成一些長期沒有意義的習慣，然後他們就會從中恢復過來。

But the effect was just delayed on higher income, higher phaco people.

但對於收入較高、超音波乳化率較高的人來說，效果會延遲。

And I would think there's reason to believe it just won't last as long or be as destructive as it can be for lower income people.

我認為有理由相信它不會持續那麼久，也不會像它對低收入者那樣具有破壞性。

So, you know, we do believe there has to be a time where things begin to revert to the mean just in terms of consumer IT, consumer behavior, savings rates, things of that nature.

所以，你知道，我們確實相信，在消費者 IT、消費者行為、儲蓄率等類似性質的方面，一定會有一個時間開始恢復到平均。

And we're very hopeful that 2024 is the year that will begin to happen also, of course, you know, some inflation waning.

我們非常希望 2024 年也能開始發生，當然，你知道，通貨膨脹也會減弱。

It doesn't just just even if we have great inflation prints, things are still a lot more expensive today than they were in 2019 regardless.

即使我們有很好的通膨數據，今天的東西仍然比 2019 年貴很多。

So that's still just takes a bit of time for people's incomes to catch up with their expenses.

因此，人們的收入趕上支出仍然需要一些時間。

And I think that's kind of what it's going on right now.

我認為這就是現在正在發生的事情。

Thank you, Dave.

謝謝你，戴夫。

Our next question is going to come from Reggie Smith from JP Morgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, guys.

大家好。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Most of mine have been hit, but it did just have a question about you talked about, I guess, high income and prime consumers feeling it in kind of tightening the credit box there.

我的大部分都受到了打擊，但它確實有一個關於你談到的問題，我猜，高收入和主要消費者感受到了那裡的信貸緊縮。

And the question is like who are you approving these days?

問題是現在你支持誰？

And what's the profile of a successful applicant today?

如今成功申請者的特徵是什麼？

We're already we're not sort of like radically changing who's approved as any loss assumptions go up, then a certain people that might have been improved before wouldn't be.

我們已經不會像隨著任何損失假設的上升而從根本上改變誰被批准，那麼以前可能已經得到改善的某些人就不會了。

But when we say that the credit box is tightening, which it has for primary people in recent times.

但當我們說信貸箱正在收緊時，這是近來針對初級人民的情況。

That's really just saying on average, they're probably going to have a bit higher rate than they would have.

這實際上只是說，平均而言，他們的利率可能會比實際情況高一些。

Otherwise, it doesn't necessarily mean they're not approved and that does affect conversion.

否則，這並不一定意味著它們未獲得批准，這確實會影響轉換。

So, you know, for the primary people, it means a bit higher rates.

所以，你知道，對於主要人群來說，這意味著更高的利率。

Maybe the loan size there, proof for it might not be exactly what they asked for.

也許那裡的貸款規模、證明可能不完全符合他們的要求。

But generally, they're still going to get approved for something when it happens at the less prime and a lot of them fall and end up going above effectively going up to about the 36% rate.

但一般來說，當某些事情發生在不太好的時候，他們仍然會獲得批准，而且其中許多人會下降並最終有效地達到約 36% 的利率。

And they for that reason our declined.

他們因此拒絕了我們。

But that's the dynamic that plays out whenever rates go up or when the credit models tighten.

但這就是每當利率上升或信貸模型收緊時就會出現的動態。

And is that, Tom?

是嗎，湯姆？

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thinking about notes from quick I'm sorry, Tom, there was a I guess, a slide toward the back of the presentation, and I thank you.

考慮一下快速的筆記，對不起，湯姆，我想，簡報後面有一張投影片，我謝謝你。

You recalibrated, I guess the returns, and can you talk a little bit about what that is?

你重新校準了，我猜是回報，你能談談那是什麼嗎？

The upstart loan performance chart, page 36 in the back whether that's a little bit about like kind of what what's going on there.

後面第 36 頁的新貴貸款績效圖表是否有點像那裡發生的事情。

And I guess it doesn't sound like it impacted your cash flows, but what would you tell people that kind of question on your ability to kind of underwrite and the thoroughness of your models with mistakes like this things?

我想這聽起來並沒有影響你的現金流，但是你會告訴人們關於你的承保能力和你的模型的徹底性這樣的錯誤的問題嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks, Sanjay.

謝謝，桑傑。

Sanjay, on so you had this chart I'll say it.

Sanjay，既然你有這張圖表，我就說一下。

So it's a bit of a specific artifact.

所以它是一個特定的工件。

The point of this chart was really to trying to aggregate loan performance across our entire platform of funding channels, which obviously no single investor lender is, but really was just meant to show the impact of the macro conditions on the overall business and how we've reacted to them.

這張圖表的目的實際上是試圖匯總我們整個融資管道平台的貸款績效，顯然沒有單一的投資者貸款機構，但實際上只是為了顯示宏觀條件對整體業務的影響以及我們如何「我對他們做出了反應。

And the specific thing we're calling out on this chart is that you're updating the forecast methodology of this chart.

我們在此圖表上指出的具體事項是，您正在更新此圖表的預測方法。

We realize we're making a calculation error in the old way that we've been using and that resulted in us overestimating the forecast of the expected returns on this chart.

我們意識到，我們一直在使用的舊方法中犯了計算錯誤，導致我們高估了該圖表上的預期回報預測。

So first of all, importantly, this is just an area that's isolated to this particular PowerPoint slide it's got nothing to do with underwriting.

首先，重要的是，這只是一個與特定 PowerPoint 投影片隔離的區域，與承保無關。

It's gotten it does not impact in any way.

已經搞定了，不會有任何影響。

Any of the numbers we report are presented really doesn't impact our conversations with individual parties because those are on a specific basis, not platform wide.

我們報告的任何數字實際上都不會影響我們與各方的對話，因為這些數字是基於特定的基礎，而不是整個平台。

And I don't really think it even necessarily changes the shape of the trends that we've been describing, which is that in on a high level, we've historically overperformed prior to COVID, we were impacted by macro trends, which peaked in our case, I think sometime in early 2022.

我真的認為它甚至不一定會改變我們一直在描述的趨勢的形狀，也就是說，在高水平上，我們在新冠疫情之前就表現出色，我們受到了宏觀趨勢的影響，宏觀趨勢達到了頂峰就我們而言，我認為是2022 年初的某個時候。

And we've since been reconversion to target.

從那時起，我們就重新轉向了目標。

And so I think in updating the methodology, we've refined that and I think we're just calling out maybe some of the some of the differences in the fine print, but that's what we're trying to lay out here.

因此，我認為在更新方法時，我們已經對其進行了改進，我認為我們只是指出了細則中可能存在的一些差異，但這就是我們試圖在這裡闡述的內容。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這就說得通了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Rich.

謝謝你，里奇。

And that's all the time we have for questions at this time, I would like to turn the conference over back to you for additional or closing remarks.

這就是我們目前提問的全部時間，我想將會議轉回給您進行補充或結束語。

Our ready to wrap up 2023 was a pivotal year for upstart.

對新貴來說，2023 年是關鍵的一年。

We made strides in personal lending in our auto business, we launched a home equity product and released two tools that are proving to be invaluable for improving model calibration.

我們在汽車業務的個人貸款方面取得了長足的進步，我們推出了房屋淨值產品，並發布了兩種工具，事實證明這些工具對於改進模型校準具有無價的價值。

And we accomplished these goals while running an operationally and fiscally tight ship.

我們在營運和財務緊張的情況下實現了這些目標。

That focus will continue in 2024 regardless of when the economy normalizes and the advantages of our leadership in AI lending become clear to all.

無論經濟何時正常化，以及我們在人工智慧貸款領域的領導地位的優勢變得顯而易見，這一重點將在 2024 年繼續下去。

So thanks to all for participating today.

感謝大家今天的參與。

We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

And this concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

And you may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。