(UPST) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Upstart 召開了電話會議,討論 2024 年第一季的財務業績,執行長和財務長出席了會議。該公司強調了在提高效率和財務表現、推出新產品和確保融資方面所做的努力。

儘管面臨宏觀經濟趨勢的挑戰,但他們的貸款交易和收入仍有所增加。 Upstart 專注於重組以提高盈利能力,並預計到年底將實現正 EBITDA。他們對未來持樂觀態度,並專注於自動化、改善貸款發放流程以及減少資產負債表風險。

該公司對其信用模型充滿信心,並預計成長將來自模型準確性和轉化收益的提高。他們致力於在投資創新的同時恢復成長和獲利。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Upstart First Quarter 2024 earnings. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jason Smith.

    歡迎閱讀 Upstart 2024 年第一季財報。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次,我想把會議交給傑森史密斯。

  • Jason Schmidt - Head of IR

    Jason Schmidt - Head of IR

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss upstart First Quarter 2024 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Gerard, upstart, Chief Executive Officer, and Sanjay data, our Chief Financial Officer.

    下午好,感謝您參加今天的電話會議,討論新貴 2024 年第一季的財務業績。參加今天電話會議的有新貴執行長 Dave Gerard 和我們的財務長 Sanjay data。

  • Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, upstart issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2024 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir dot upstart.com.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天收盤後不久,Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿,宣布其 2024 年第一季財務業績,並發布了投資者關係簡報。兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir dot upstart.com 上找到。

  • During the call, we will make forward looking statements such as guidance for the second quarter of 2020 for the second half of 2024 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future these statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions.

    在電話會議期間,我們將做出前瞻性聲明,例如與我們的業務相關的 2020 年第二季度和 2024 年下半年的指導以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃,這些聲明基於我們當前的預期和可用信息截至今天,並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

  • Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events except as required by law.

    由於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素,實際結果可能會存在重大差異。因此,我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。除法律要求外,我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables to ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible. During the call, we request that you please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow-up later this quarter. Upstart will be participating in the Needham Technology Media and Consumer Conference on May 14th, Barclays iMergent Payments and Fintech Forum May 15th B. Riley Securities Institutional Investor Conference on May 22nd, and the Missoula Technology Conference, June 12th, as well. We will host our Annual Shareholder Meeting on May 29th.

    此外,在今天的電話會議中,除非另有說明,否則對我們業績的引用均以非公認會計原則財務指標的形式提供,並與我們的公認會計原則結果進行了協調,這些結果可以在收益發布和補充表格中找到,以確保我們能夠解決盡可能多的問題分析師盡可能提問。在通話過程中,我們要求您只提出一個初始問題,並在本季度稍後提出一個後續問題。 Upstart 將參加5 月14 日舉行的Needham 技術媒體和消費者會議、5 月15 日舉行的巴克萊iMergent 支付和金融科技論壇、5 月22 日舉行的Riley 證券機構投資者會議以及6 月12 日舉行的米蘇拉技術會議。我們將於 5 月 29 日召開年度股東大會。

  • Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Gerard, Chief Executive Officer of Upstart.

    現在我想把它交給 Upstart 執行長 Dave Gerard。

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Dave Gerard, Cofounder and CEO of upstart. Thanks for joining us on our earnings call covering our first quarter 2024. And I can start by saying I'm quite proud of the work of starters around the country continue to do to build the world's leader in AI enabled lending with credit availability as constrained hasn't spent in more than a decade. We've never felt the urgency of our mission more than we do today. We're off to a solid start this year and have made significant progress with our products and with funding there are many reasons to believe our business will return to growth soon, but we're also prepared for the current macroeconomic conditions to persist.

    大家下午好。我是 Dave Gerard,新貴公司的共同創辦人兼執行長。感謝您參加我們的2024 年第一季財報電話會議。的全球領導者十多年來沒有消費過。我們從未像今天這樣感受到我們使命的迫切性。今年我們有了一個良好的開端,在我們的產品和資金方面取得了重大進展,有很多理由相信我們的業務將很快恢復成長,但我們也為當前的宏觀經濟狀況持續存在做好了準備。

  • We continue to focus on improving our efficiency and financial performance while investing responsibly for the long term. In pursuit of efficiency, we minimized hiring reduced the size of some teams flatten org structures. We reallocated resources to our highest priorities since the beginning of 2024, we cut fixed expenses from headcount by approximately $20 million on an annual basis.

    我們繼續專注於提高效率和財務業績,同時進行負責任的長期投資。為了追求效率,我們最大限度地減少了招聘,縮小了一些團隊的規模,並扁平化了組織結構。自 2024 年初以來,我們將資源重新分配給我們的最高優先事項,我們每年從員工人數中削減約 2000 萬美元的固定費用。

  • Our headcount today is as low as it's been since Q3 of 2021, vastly improved the efficiency of our cloud infrastructure and reduced our model training and development costs. Year over year, our compute and storage costs have been reduced by 23%, and we expect to generate additional savings in this area. We believe these actions set up start to return to profitability sooner and to rebound more quickly through the company. We know we can be I'm happy to report that the funding situation on our platform is beginning to improve for banks and credit unions as well as for credit investors we're hopeful this trend will continue through 2024.

    我們目前的員工人數是自 2021 年第三季以來的最低水平,大大提高了我們的雲端基礎設施的效率,並降低了我們的模型訓練和開發成本。與去年同期相比,我們的計算和儲存成本降低了 23%,我們預計在這方面將產生更多節省。我們相信,這些行動將開始更快地恢復獲利,並透過公司更快地反彈。我們知道我們可以 我很高興地向大家報告,我們平台上銀行、信用合作社以及信貸投資者的融資狀況正在開始改善,我們希望這種趨勢將持續到 2024 年。

  • And fortunately, consumer risks and interest remain at or near all-time highs, conspiring to constrain the volume of transactions on our plan given this combination in assuming rates on upstart remain at or near their current high levels, we expect to reduce the use of our balance sheet to fund loans that are not R&D permits. This will allow us to make better use of those funds elsewhere, but we will continue to be flexible and responsive and using our balance sheet to do the right thing. We continue our work to make upstart a platform that can thrive in any macro environment where it comes in the form of improvements to our core personal loan product as well as progress in the newer products in our portfolio.

    幸運的是,消費者風險和利率仍處於或接近歷史最高水平,從而限制了我們計劃中的交易量,考慮到假設暴發戶的利率保持在或接近當前的高水平,我們預計將減少使用我們的資產負債表為非研發許可的貸款提供資金。這將使我們能夠在其他地方更好地利用這些資金,但我們將繼續保持靈活性和回應能力,並利用我們的資產負債表來做正確的事情。我們將繼續努力,打造一個能夠在任何宏觀環境中蓬勃發展的平台,其形式是改進我們的核心個人貸款產品以及我們投資組合中新產品的進展。

  • Last quarter, I mentioned an initiative to allow applicants to provide collateral to support their personal loan application with the goal of helping borrowers access credit at lower rates than would otherwise be possible.

    上個季度,我提到了一項舉措,允許申請人提供抵押品來支持他們的個人貸款申請,目的是幫助借款人以低於其他方式的利率獲得信貸。

  • Today, I'm happy to report that we've successfully launched our auto secured personal loan as a pilot in seven states our approach allows qualified applicants to make an informed choice between an unsecured or an auto secured personal loan, which commonly offers a lower APR. And thus far as ASPL rates are an average 20% less than the rate on an unsecured loan. The ASPL also helps many applicants qualified for loans that would otherwise be declined last quarter. I also shared that we were developing tools to help our lending partners strengthen relationships with their existing customer, which is often their priority in periods of reduced liquidity and two weeks ago, we announced recognized customer personalization or RCP. This new feature lenders can identify when an existing customer is actively shopping for a loan, an upstart.com and strengthen their relationship by making a compelling offer of credit.

    今天,我很高興地向大家報告,我們已經在七個州成功推出了汽車擔保個人貸款試點,我們的方法允許合格的申請人在無擔保或汽車擔保個人貸款之間做出明智的選擇,這通常提供較低的利率年利率。到目前為止,ASPL 利率比無擔保貸款利率平均低 20%。 ASPL 還幫助許多有資格獲得貸款的申請人,否則這些貸款將在上個季度被拒絕。我還透露,我們正在開發工具來幫助我們的貸款合作夥伴加強與現有客戶的關係,這通常是他們在流動性減少時期的首要任務,兩週前,我們宣布了認可的客戶個性化或RCP 。這項新功能性貸方可以識別現有客戶何時積極購買貸款,並透過提供令人信服的信貸來加強他們的關係。

  • This is a capability many banks and credit unions have long requested, and we're pleased with the initial response 30 of our bank and credit union partners have signed up for RCP already. In Q1, 90% of unsecured loans on the upstart platform fully automated, an all-time high for us. For the borrower. And this means no document upload, no phone call required in a final approval in just seconds for upstart in our lending partners. It means there's no human in the loop whatsoever to process and complete the loan application. Automation is a hallmark of AI enabled lending and upstart aims to be the best at it and continue to make progress in our auto business was 103 dealer rooftops now live with upstart powered lending versus 39 a year ago. In keeping with the times, we've tasked our auto team to move more quickly toward profitability, which means doubling down on credit quality, making improvements to our in-store platform and focusing on overall dealership success.

    這是許多銀行和信用合作社長期以來一直要求的功能,我們對初步回應感到滿意,我們的 30 家銀行和信用合作社合作夥伴已經簽署了 RCP。第一季度,這個新貴平台上 90% 的無抵押貸款完全自動化,這是我們的歷史最高水準。對於借款人來說。這意味著我們的貸款合作夥伴中的新貴無需上傳文件,無需電話即可在幾秒鐘內獲得最終批准。這意味著沒有任何人參與處理和完成貸款申請。自動化是人工智慧支援的貸款的一個標誌,新貴的目標是在這方面做到最好,並繼續在我們的汽車業務中取得進展,目前有103 個經銷商屋頂擁有新貴支持的貸款,而一年前只有39 個。為了與時俱進,我們要求我們的汽車團隊更快地實現盈利,這意味著加倍提高信貸質量,改進我們的店內平台,並專注於經銷商的整體成功。

  • Following with the goal of improving the unit economics of each dealership. We've somewhat reduced our go-to-market investment in auto retail for now and believe a more focused effort today will allow us to scale more quickly in the future. We're making fast progress with our home equity product, which continues to exceed our expectations. We knew would be an attractive product and a high interest rate environment and the team's progress thus far has been impressive. Less than a year after launch. We're offering an upstart catalog in 19 states plus Washington DC, covering 33% of the US population. This is up from 11 states last quarter and now includes Florida, our largest state to date.

    接下來的目標是提高每個經銷商的單位經濟效益。我們目前在一定程度上減少了對汽車零售的市場投資,並相信今天更集中的努力將使我們能夠在未來更快地擴大規模。我們的房屋淨值產品正在快速進展,這繼續超出我們的預期。我們知道這將是一個有吸引力的產品和高利率環境,團隊迄今為止的進展令人印象深刻。推出後不到一年。我們在 19 個州和華盛頓特區提供新貴目錄,涵蓋美國 33% 的人口。這一數字比上季度的 11 個州有所增加,現在包括我們迄今為止最大的州佛羅裡達州。

  • I mentioned last time that we were beginning to automate verification of borrower information, and I'm happy to report that we're now able to instantly verify 36% of US borrowers. This includes instant verification of identity and income. So any tedious dockings to upload in another sign of progress. We offer applicants a key lock as an alternative to a personal loan. We're seeing a lift in the percentage of applicants taking one of our options. This validates our approach to integrating our personal loan in key lock applications, creating a single unified funding form for multiple products.

    我上次提到我們開始自動驗證借款人信息,我很高興地向大家報告,我們現在能夠立即驗證 36% 的美國借款人。這包括即時驗證身份和收入。因此,任何繁瑣的對接上傳都是進步的另一個標誌。我們為申請人提供鑰匙鎖作為個人貸款的替代方案。我們發現選擇我們其中一個選項的申請人比例有所上升。這驗證了我們將個人貸款整合到鑰匙鎖應用程式中的方法,為多種產品創建單一統一的融資形式。

  • Lastly, but perhaps most importantly, we signed our first funding deal for the upstart Cielo and expect to begin selling loans on a forward flow basis to this partner in the next few weeks. I'm excited to see this product scale from 2024 and beyond. Our small-dollar loan product continues to expand rapidly with Q1 originations up 80% quarter to quarter. Consumers love the small relief loans because they're fast simple. And so much more affordable than more expensive flavors of credit normally available fr them. Today, about 60% of applicants can come to us for small-dollar loan and initially qualify actually get the loan, which is a super strong conversion rate at this stage.

    最後,但也許最重要的是,我們為新貴 Cielo 簽署了第一份融資協議,並預計在未來幾週內開始向該合作夥伴出售遠期貸款。我很高興看到該產品在 2024 年及以後規模化。我們的小額貸款產品持續快速擴張,第一季發放量較上季成長 80%。消費者喜歡小額救濟貸款,因為它們快速又簡單。而且比他們通常提供的更昂貴的信貸方式更實惠。如今,大約有60%的申請人可以來我們這裡申請小額貸款,並且初步符合資格並真正獲得貸款,這是現階段超強的轉換率。

  • From what's next for upstart perspective, I'll say first that this product is core to our mission. We're meaningfully expanding the percentage of Americans. We invite into the world of bank quality credit with a small but important first step. The beauty of this relief loan is that it's primarily offered to those who don't today qualify for our personnel. So instead of declining them entirely, we give them the opportunity to perform on a small loan and start them on a better financial plan and of course, our risk models are learning rapidly by extending credit to someone who would otherwise be turned away.

    從新貴的下一步發展的角度來看,我首先要說的是,這個產品是我們使命的核心。我們正在有意義地擴大美國人的比例。我們邁出了微小但重要的第一步,進入銀行優質信用的世界。這筆救濟貸款的優點在於,它主要提供給目前不符合我們人員資格的人。因此,我們沒有完全拒絕他們,而是給他們小額貸款的機會,並讓他們開始製定更好的財務計劃,當然,我們的風險模型正在透過向本來會被拒絕的人提供信貸來快速學習。

  • These small loans are rapidly expanding the frontier of understanding of our models represent a long-term opportunity to serve Americans with fairly priced credit. We continue to invest in our ability to service upstart loans and help those borrowers who become delinquent returning to financial health for example, we made it simpler and easier and borrowers to adopt auto pay a key leading determinant of credit performance.

    這些小額貸款正在迅速擴大對我們模型的理解範圍,代表著為美國人提供公平定價信貸的長期機會。我們繼續投資於我們為新貴貸款提供服務的能力,並幫助那些拖欠的借款人恢復財務健康,例如,我們使借款人採用自動支付變得更簡單、更容易,這是信用績效的關鍵決定因素。

  • These efforts have led to an increasing number of borrowers enrolled in auto pay for 24 straight weeks. In another example, we launched a new channel for contacting delinquent borrowers just in its initial deployment channel is projected to reduce gross losses more than 3%. This is just the beginning.

    這些努力使得越來越多的借款人連續 24 週加入自動支付。在另一個例子中,我們在初始部署管道中推出了一個用於聯繫拖欠借款人的新管道,預計將減少總損失超過 3%。這只是個開始。

  • We see a wealth of opportunities to reduce run rates, improves recoveries all while helping borrowers get themselves on a better financial footing as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing improvements in the funding side of our business. These improvements are both in the bank and credit union segments as well as on the institutional and credit funds side, the liquidity challenges, many banks and credit unions experienced in 2023 seem to be waning many lenders now once again facing a shortage of staff. This new challenge is compounded by the fact that the cost of funding for many regional and community banks has risen. So they're now paying more for deposits while still cautious about the direction of the economy.

    正如我之前提到的,我們看到了降低運作率、提高回收率的大量機會,同時幫助借款人建立更好的財務基礎,我們看到我們業務的融資方面有所改善。這些改善既發生在銀行和信用社領域,也發生在機構和信貸基金方面。許多區域和社區銀行的融資成本上升,加劇了這項新挑戰。因此,他們現在支付更多的存款,同時仍然對經濟的方向持謹慎態度。

  • Many lenders are now looking for ways to generate healthy and appropriately risk adjusted yield from their balance sheet. We got eight new lenders join our platform due to one and a number of existing lenders increased their funding number of new vendors in the total available funding on upstart from lending partners, our book at their highest since prior to the 2023 bank failures a year ago. We also continued to make progress with institutional capital working to renew and extend existing partnerships and to bring investor partners who paused in the past back to the platform. And as mentioned previously, we signed the first partnership to fund upstarts home equity products.

    許多貸方現在正在尋找方法,從其資產負債表中產生健康且適當風險調整的收益。我們有八家新貸款人加入我們的平台,因為其中一家和一些現有貸款人在貸款合作夥伴的新貴可用資金總額中增加了新供應商的融資數量,這是自一年前2023 年銀行倒閉之前以來的最高水準。我們也繼續在機構資本方面取得進展,努力更新和擴展現有的合作夥伴關係,並將過去暫停的投資者合作夥伴帶回平台。如同前面所提到的,我們簽署了第一個合作關係,為新貴房屋淨值產品提供資金。

  • As a result of this progress, we expect to be borrowed constrained as long as rates on upstart platform remain as elevated as they are currently And together, we're hopeful that we're headed into a period of stable funding in excess of our needs. We expect this will allow us to reduce the use of our own balance sheet and redeploying that capital to other important goals to wrap things up our leaner organization is making rapid progress on building a product portfolio and a platform that will accelerate the financial industry's migration to AI enabled lending with the interest in May.

    由於這一進展,只要新興平台的利率保持在目前的高水平,我們預計借貸就會受到限制。我們預計這將使我們能夠減少對自己資產負債表的使用,並將這些資本重新部署到其他重要目標上,以完成我們更精簡的組織在建立產品組合和平台方面取得的快速進展,這將加速金融業向人工智慧在 5 月實現了帶息貸款。

  • I'm sorry, just last week, we launched a first-of-its-kind AI certification program to help bank executives prepare for this brave new world?

    抱歉,就在上週,我們推出了首個人工智慧認證計劃,以幫助銀行高層為這個美麗的新世界做好準備?

  • Just in the first couple of days, several hundred individuals registered from the quarters reflecting the broad demand to upscale in this area. Some of you on today's call also may find the course can be of any. I want to thank our starters for their resilience and perseverance through a clearly challenging period. We find strength and durability and our focus on the mission and satisfaction we find and pursuing it together approach every day, confident that the upstart team is unmatched in both its capacity to execute as well as its unity of purpose. Thanks.

    僅僅在最初的幾天裡,就有數百人從這些宿舍登記,反映了該地區對高檔商品的廣泛需求。今天電話會議上的一些人可能還會發現課程可以是任何課程。我要感謝我們的先發球員在這個充滿挑戰的時期所展現的韌性和毅力。我們發現力量和持久性,我們專注於我們找到的使命和滿足感,並每天共同追求它,相信這個新貴團隊在執行能力和目標統一方面都無與倫比。謝謝。

  • I'd like now to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q1 2024 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

    我現在想將其交給我們的財務長 Sanjay,讓他詳細介紹我們 2024 年第一季的財務表現和指導。桑傑?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. As was the case in 2023. The dominant influence on our business so far this year remains the macroenvironment and the trends I highlighted last quarter have remained constant. Real personal consumption in our economy continues to surge more recently powered by the gathering momentum of the services economy now increasingly compounded by the rapidly growing outflow of interest payments despite healthy growth in wages, overall disposable income has, in fact, languished over the past year due to the combined headwinds of falling government transfer payments, segment asset income and as of the new year, a significantly higher personal tax burden compared to 2023.

    謝謝戴夫,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。與 2023 年的情況一樣。儘管薪資健康成長,但在服務經濟不斷增長的勢頭的推動下,我們經濟中的實際個人消費最近繼續飆升,而利息支付的快速外流則日益加劇,儘管工資健康增長,但事實上,總體可支配收入在過去一年中一直萎靡不振由於政府轉移支付、部門資產收入下降以及截至新年的個人稅負較2023年顯著升高的綜合不利因素。

  • The consequence of continuing consumption growth against flat disposal income has been a downward trend in the personal savings rates, which have fallen back towards the 3% level after peaking almost one year ago and matched by a continuously falling balance of real savings deposits in an economy with strong headline growth numbers and low unemployment, the anemic savings rates and declining real savings balances are the core problem statements.

    消費持續成長而可支配收入持平的結果是個人儲蓄率呈下降趨勢,在近一年前達到峰值後已回落至 3% 的水平,同時經濟體中實際儲蓄存款餘額持續下降由於整體經濟增長強勁,失業率較低,儲蓄率低迷和實際儲蓄餘額下降是核心問題。

  • Regarding credit performance, we spoke last quarter about the trend of deterioration at the primary end of the borrower base, which has continued our models have reacted to this trend over the past quarter with higher loss estimates and correspondingly higher APRs for more affluent borrowers in order to maintain the returns investors expect which just further reduced loan volume on our platform. This had a partial adverse impact on our Q1 results and its full impact is being felt in Q2 on the funding side of the platform, liquidity amongst banks and credit unions is beginning to improve.

    關於信貸表現,我們上個季度談到了借款人基礎的惡化趨勢,我們的模型在過去一個季度對這一趨勢做出了反應,較高的損失估計和相應較高的年利率對於更富裕的借款人來說是為了維持投資者預期的回報,這進一步減少了我們平台上的貸款量。這對我們第一季的業績產生了部分不利影響,第二季平台的融資方面將感受到其全面影響,銀行和信用合作社之間的流動性開始改善。

  • We are seeing encouraging signals of funding capacity increases from existing lenders as well as new lenders joining the platform, including our first forward-flow buyer of fuel in the institutional markets. We are in the process of extending and rolling over all of the committed capital relationships that are coming up on their one-year mark as well as in some cases working on meaningful upsizing, which we are pleased to interpret as a positive endorsement of our program.

    我們看到現有貸方以及加入該平台的新貸方(包括我們在機構市場上的第一個遠期燃料買家)發出了令人鼓舞的融資能力增加的信號。我們正在擴展和展期即將滿一年的所有承諾資本關係,並在某些情況下致力於有意義的規模擴大,我們很高興將其解釋為對我們計劃的積極認可。

  • We currently expect that these efforts will result in approximately $2.7 billion of funding through committed capital and other co-investment arrangements over the next 12 months with additional opportunities in the pipeline. Separately, we are starting to see more signs of formerly active investors once again reengaging with the platform.

    目前,我們預計這些努力將在未來 12 個月內透過承諾資本和其他聯合投資安排籌集約 27 億美元的資金,並正在醞釀更多機會。另外,我們開始看到更多以前活躍的投資者再次重新參與該平台的跡象。

  • With this environment as context, here are some financial highlights from the first quarter of 2024. Revenue from fees was $138 million in Q1, up 18% from the prior year, but down 10% sequentially and in line with the decreased origination volumes resulting from the increased pricing of prime loans. Net interest income was negative $10 million, reflecting the impact of prime loan performance on our risk-sharing positions as well as some realized fair value impact taken as part of the secondary sale transaction.

    以這種環境為背景,以下是 2024 年第一季的一些財務亮點。的定價。淨利息收入為負 1000 萬美元,反映了優質貸款表現對我們風險分擔頭寸的影響,以及作為二級銷售交易的一部分所實現的公允價值影響。

  • Taken together, net revenue for Q1 came in at $128 million above our guidance and up 24% year over year. The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q1 was approximately 119,000 loans, up 42% from the prior year, but down 8% sequentially and representing over 68,000 new borrowers.

    總的來說,第一季的淨收入比我們的指導高出 1.28 億美元,年增 24%。第一季我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 119,000 筆貸款,比上年增長 42%,但環比下降 8%,代表超過 68,000 名新借款人。

  • Average loan size of $9,500 was down from $12,200 in the same period last year, driven by robust growth in small-dollar loans. Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs per borrower acquisition verification and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 59% in Q1, down 4 percentage points sequentially, primarily reflecting increased investments in servicing and collections capabilities.

    受小額貸款強勁成長的推動,平均貸款規模為 9,500 美元,低於去年同期的 12,200 美元。我們的貢獻利潤率是一項非GAAP 指標,我們將其定義為費用收入減去每個借款人獲取驗證和服務的可變成本,佔費用收入的百分比,第一季為59%,比上第一季下降4 個百分點,主要反映了對服務和收集能力的投資。

  • We continue to benefit from very high levels of loan processing automation, achieving another high in the percentage of loans fully automated at 90%, and our seventh sequential quarterly improvement. Operating expenses were $195 million in Q1, down 17% year over year, but up 4% sequentially as our payroll coming into the new year gets reset with the new benefits cost basis and bonus accruals.

    我們持續受惠於極高水準的貸款處理自動化,完全自動化的貸款比例再創新高,達到 90%,並且是我們連續第七個季度的進步。第一季的營運費用為 1.95 億美元,年減 17%,但隨著進入新一年的薪資單根據新的福利成本基礎和應計獎金進行重置,環比增長 4%。

  • As Dave mentioned, since the beginning of 2024, we've restructured some teams and reduced headcount in order to quicken our path back to profitability. Altogether, Q1 GAAP net loss was $65 million and adjusted EBITDA was negative $20 million, both ahead of guidance.

    正如 Dave 所提到的,自 2024 年初以來,我們重組了一些團隊並減少了員工人數,以加快我們恢復盈利的速度。總計,第一季 GAAP 淨虧損為 6,500 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 為負 2,000 萬美元,均高於預期。

  • Adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.31 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $87 million. We ended the first quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $924 million before the consolidation of securitized loans, down from $982 million in the same quarter of the prior year.

    根據 8,700 萬美元的稀釋加權平均股數計算,調整後每股收益為負 0.31 美元。截至第一季末,在證券化貸款合併之前,我們資產負債表上的貸款為 9.24 億美元,低於去年同期的 9.82 億美元。

  • That balance loans made for the purposes of R&D principally auto loans was $316 million. In addition to loans held directly, we have consolidated $157 million of loans from an ABS transaction in Q3 of 2023, from which we retained a total net equity exposure of $28 million.

    主要用於研發目的的汽車貸款餘額為 3.16 億美元。除了直接持有的貸款外,我們還合併了 2023 年第三季 ABS 交易中的 1.57 億美元貸款,其中我們保留了 2,800 萬美元的淨股權曝險總額。

  • We ended the quarter with $301 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and approximately $572 million in net loan equity at fair value. With our models having largely adjusted to the increased delinquency rates of prime loans and the near-prime universe of borrowers now toggling between stabilization and recovery. We believe that the wave of elevated defaults propagating from the abrupt stimulus and the stimulus of the economy in 2021 is now at or very close to its peak, assuming no new credit shocks lurking on the horizon, we are anticipating a return to sequential growth in the second half of this year and return to positive EBITDA by the end of this year.

    截至本季末,我們的資產負債表上有 3.01 億美元的不受限制的現金,以公允價值計算的淨貸款權益約為 5.72 億美元。我們的模型已在很大程度上適應了優質貸款拖欠率上升的情況,以及接近優質貸款的借款人現在在穩定和復甦之間切換。我們認為,突然的刺激和 2021 年經濟刺激所帶來的違約率上升浪潮目前已達到或非常接近峰值,假設沒有新的信貸衝擊潛伏在地平線上,我們預計 2021 年經濟將恢復環比增長。半年,EBITDA將恢復正值。

  • With that in mind, for Q2 of 2024, we expect total revenues of approximately $125 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $135 million and net interest income of approximately negative $10 million. Contribution margin of approximately 56%, net income of approximately negative $75 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $36 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately negative $25 million and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 88.4 million shares. For the second half of 2024, we expect to revenue from fees of approximately $300 million and positive EBITDA in Q4.

    考慮到這一點,我們預計 2024 年第二季的總收入約為 1.25 億美元,其中費用收入為 1.35 億美元,淨利息收入約為負 1,000 萬美元。貢獻率約 56%,淨利潤約負 7,500 萬美元,調整後淨利約負 3,600 萬美元,調整後 EBITDA 約為負 2,500 萬美元,稀釋加權平均股數約 8,840 萬股。 2024 年下半年,我們預計第四季的收費收入約為 3 億美元,且 EBITDA 為正。

  • Thanks once again to all for joining us today. And with that, Dave and I are happy to open up the call to any questions.

    再次感謝大家今天加入我們。至此,戴夫和我很樂意撥打電話詢問任何問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

    (操作員說明)Ramsey El-Assal,巴克萊銀行。

  • John Coffey - Analyst

    John Coffey - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you very much. This is John Coffey on for Ramsey. I just wanted to ask you, Sanjay, about your second half of 2024 outlook with the revenue from fees of approximately $300 million. Could you just give me a little bit of a better idea of what some of the underlying mechanics of this are that are going to drive it to that level. Is it just that the you'll be able to make more attractive loans to consumers?

    你好,非常感謝你。這是拉姆齊的約翰·科菲。 Sanjay,我只是想問您對 2024 年下半年的展望,收費收入約為 3 億美元。您能否讓我更了解將其推向這一水平的一些基本機制。難道只是為了向消費者提供更具吸引力的貸款嗎?

  • Is it -- I'm just trying to think of what the different factors are that makes you a little bit more optimistic here?

    是嗎——我只是想想想有哪些不同的因素讓你在這裡更樂觀一點?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Great question, banks on some context on the second half of 2024. I would say, first of all, our assumptions on the macro are neutral on and in that environment, really a lot of this growth is down to how we have historically grown, which is a roadmap of product execution resulting in model improvements in accuracy gains. And so maybe one of the really important contextual points is the the the though the main macro effect that we've been sort of contending with over the last two years really is a propagation of what came from stimulus and the stimulus to the economy. And as we said in our remarks, we really think that's now in the process of fully running its course. And so we're really back to our old model of improving technology and accuracy and driving conversion gains from that. And we think that that's the that's going to be the story in the back half of this year, barring.

    很好的問題,銀行在2024 年下半年的某些背景下。我們歷史上的成長方式,這是產品執行的路線圖,可提高模型的準確性。因此,也許真正重要的背景點之一是,儘管過去兩年我們一直在應對的主要宏觀效應實際上是刺激措施和刺激措施對經濟的影響的傳播。正如我們在發言中所說,我們確實認為現在正處於全面發展的過程中。因此,我們確實回到了改進技術和準確性並從中推動轉化收益的舊模式。我們認為這將是今年下半年的故事,除非。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kyle Peterson, Needham.

    凱爾彼得森,尼達姆。

  • Kyle Peterson - Senior Analyst

    Kyle Peterson - Senior Analyst

  • Good afternoon, and thanks for taking the questions, guys. I wanted to start off on expenses, assuming that we're kind of in a but muted environment, macro-wise at least for a little while. Are you guys comfortable with the expense structure where it is now on a cash basis or do you think there's more wood to chop are more action to potentially take if volumes don't stand?

    下午好,謝謝大家提問。我想從支出開始,假設我們處於一個安靜的環境中,至少在一段時間內是宏觀的。你們對現在以現金為基礎的費用結構感到滿意嗎?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. As we said in our remarks, we have been doing a lot of that work. And since the end of the quarter and we've announced some more cost reductions. And I think as of where we are at the end of that series of cost reductions, we feel like we're in a good place for our current scale and for the plan we have for the rest of this year. I mean, obviously, if there's another downturn in the macro that affects the credit environment, lock to react further. That's all there's a possibility. But as of where we are, we think we've taken the appropriate actions.

    是的。正如我們在演講中所說,我們已經做了很多這方面的工作。自本季末以來,我們宣布了更多的成本削減措施。我認為,就我們目前的規模和今年剩餘時間的計劃而言,我們感覺我們處於這一系列成本削減的最後階段。我的意思是,顯然,如果宏觀經濟再次出現低迷並影響信貸環境,請鎖定進一步反應。這就是所有的可能性。但就目前情況而言,我們認為我們已經採取了適當的行動。

  • Kyle Peterson - Senior Analyst

    Kyle Peterson - Senior Analyst

  • And then just a follow-up on credit I know you guys kind of mentioned seems like some of the credit concerns with the affluent borrowers. You guys mentioned last quarter is kind of still in the same, I guess like our loss assumptions still the same? And if so, like, are you guys comfortable with some of the pricing and origination for underwriting changes? He has made that you guys that the newer vintages in that cohort can be profitable and attractive for investors?

    然後是關於信貸的後續行動,我知道你們提到的似乎是富裕借款人的一些信貸問題。你們提到上個季度還是一樣,我想我們的損失假設還是一樣嗎?如果是這樣,你們對承保變化的一些定價和來源感到滿意嗎?他讓你們知道該系列中的較新年份可以獲利並且對投資者有吸引力嗎?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah, we are comfortable that our models are caught up in the current product is performing and is calibrated, as we said, the we see signs of recovery in the less prime, less affluent parts of the world. And the more affluent primary part is what has deteriorated more recently, but we're hopeful also that we are on and you're kind of reaching toward the end of that.

    是的,我們很高興我們的模型能夠滿足當前產品的表現並進行校準,正如我們所說,我們看到世界上不太黃金、不太富裕的地區出現復甦的跡象。較富裕的主要部分是最近惡化的,但我們也希望我們能繼續下去,並且你們即將接近尾聲。

  • So, you know, it has been a cycle that we've been at we've been observing for a while. We did, I think, accurately state that it was going to affect less affluent people first and then probably more affluent primer people later, which is exactly what's happened. And now as Sanjay kind of alluded to, we're hopeful we're nearing the end of this and then it for us, it's just kind of back to business of improving model accuracy of funnel throughput, et cetera. And that's what gives us some confidence in the rest of this year.

    所以,你知道,這是一個我們已經觀察了一段時間的週期。我認為,我們確實準確地指出,它將首先影響不太富裕的人群,然後可能會影響更富裕的初級人群,這正是所發生的情況。現在,正如 Sanjay 所提到的,我們希望我們已經接近尾聲,然後對我們來說,這只是回到提高漏斗吞吐量的模型準確性等問題上。這讓我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Christiansen, Citigroup

    彼得‧克里斯蒂安森,花旗集團

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Thank you. Good afternoon and thanks for the question. So I'm Dave, Sanjay, I wonder if you do a little bit into the small the growth in the smaller dollar loan product there, what impact that's had on the conversion rate, perhaps maybe how should we think about the conversion rate and standard personal loan levels? And then a second question. I'm just curious on the auto side, it looks like you kind of run rating around five loans per rooftop per quarter. Just curious on what's the opportunity to increase that share within each rooftop and maybe some of the steps that you're taking there to improve that? Thank you.

    謝謝。下午好,謝謝你的提問。所以我是戴夫,桑傑,我想知道你是否對那裡較小的美元貸款產品的增長進行了一些研究,這對轉換率有什麼影響,也許我們應該如何考慮轉換率和標準個人貸款水平?然後是第二個問題。我只是對汽車方面感到好奇,看起來你們對每個屋頂每季大約有五筆貸款進行評級。只是好奇增加每個屋頂的份額的機會是什麼,也許您正在採取一些步驟來改善這一點?謝謝。

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • On the small dollar loan product, um, there's definitely a heavy focus on automation there. I don't know if we have the numbers to separate rate of automation for the small-dollar loan from the personal loan, but they've certainly come they contribute to that 90% that we have. We put up some in auto. I think we definitely believe there is a lot of room for increasing market share on loans per dealership. That's actually one of a very central focus of ours is how we do that. And part of that as the model is getting smarter, better separation, which means we compete better and also just the process of originating those loans in the dealership. And so those those are, as I kind of highlighted earlier, very central to our focus. And there were a little less worried about exactly how many dealers are blending. We want to make sure the volume going through a dealer and the unit economics of a dealer, our where we want them to be, and that's been a lot of focus for us in recent months.

    在小額貸款產品上,嗯,肯定非常注重自動化。我不知道我們是否有數據來區分小額貸款和個人貸款的自動化率,但他們確實為我們的 90% 做出了貢獻。我們在汽車上放了一些。我認為我們絕對相信每個經銷商的貸款市佔率還有很大的提升空間。實際上,我們的核心關注點之一就是我們如何做到這一點。其中一部分是隨著模型變得更加聰明、更好的分離,這意味著我們可以更好地競爭,也意味著在經銷商處發放這些貸款的過程。因此,正如我之前強調的那樣,這些是我們關注的重點。人們不太擔心到底有多少經銷商在混合。我們希望確保經銷商的銷售和經銷商的單位經濟效益,以及我們希望它們達到的目標,這是近幾個月來我們關注的重點。

  • Peter Christiansen - Analyst

    Peter Christiansen - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks. But I guess the question on the small-dollar loans is really more on how that impacts the conversion ratio, which went to 14% this quarter. Just curious how in a typical the typical personal loan product is doing from a conversion ratio factor of if you can piece it out? Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。但我想小額貸款的問題實際上更多的是這如何影響轉換率,本季轉換率達到 14%。只是好奇,從轉換率因素來看,典型的個人貸款產品的表現如何?謝謝。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, maybe I think the answer to that is I don't think it's a huge impact, but it's probably marginally positive as you could think of like with just the personal loan product, there's a certain approval rate and then people who are outside of that approval box can usually get approved for a smaller loan like a small-dollar loan. So for a given market and marketing sort of centralized, we will have additional approvals due to that product but I don't think it's really big enough to move the data in a significant way at this point.

    是的,也許我認為答案是,我不認為這會產生巨大的影響,但它可能有點積極,因為你可以想像,只有個人貸款產品,有一定的批准率,然後是外部的人該審批框通常可以批准小額貸款,例如小額貸款。因此,對於特定的市場和行銷類型的集中化,我們將因該產品而獲得額外的批准,但我認為目前它還不夠大,無法以顯著的方式移動資料。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

    丹‧多列夫,瑞穗。

  • Dan Dolev - Analyst

    Dan Dolev - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Come actually really So pretty good results. I mean, and I'm a little surprised by the initial kind of knee-jerk stock reaction. Do you think is this I mean, if you had to guess is this when you look at if you look at 2Q versus what people were expecting, is something kind of changed? Was do you think there's been a bit of a miss modeling that just kind of little bit of a misunderstanding in terms of 2Q? Because if I look at trends overall, they seem to be more optimistic than pessimistic, especially if I look at the UMI., which is continuing to trend down and your loan performance, which is in line with the expectation? I'm trying to sort of connect the dots here.

    大家好。其實真的有這麼好的結果。我的意思是,我對股票最初的下意識反應感到有點驚訝。我的意思是,如果你必須猜測,當你查看 2Q 與人們的預期時,你認為是這樣嗎?您是否認為在 2Q 方面存在一些建模失誤,有點誤解?因為如果我看整體趨勢,他們似乎更樂觀而不是悲觀,特別是如果我看UMI,它持續下降,而你們的貸款表現是否符合預期?我試著將這裡的點連結起來。

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yes. Then on basically the Q2 guidance is as it is because because rates have moved up during the first quarter and that's a tightening due to observation of deterioration. And as we've mentioned previously in the primary segment, so that that's fully felt in the second quarter. We do hope that these rates are as high as they'll be in, they'll come off these rates. But in any case, we feel like this sort of a and pandemic and post pandemic stimulus effect is really running its course. So that gives us some comfort that we're kind of back to the world work that we know, which is we can make improvements to the funnel into the models and grow on a month-to-month basis, really just based on advancements of the technology that you're not seeing that really in the Q2 guidance because we're just fully getting to the place where we think the models are reflecting the risk out there. But we think there's we feel pretty comfortable with the second half of the year.

    是的。基本上第二季的指引是這樣的,因為第一季利率有所上升,並且由於觀察到惡化而導致收緊。正如我們之前在主要細分市場中提到的那樣,這一點在第二季度得到了充分體現。我們確實希望這些利率盡可能高,他們會降低這些利率。但無論如何,我們覺得這種流行病和流行病後的刺激效應確實正在發揮作用。因此,這給了我們一些安慰,我們回到了我們所知道的世界工作,我們可以對模型的漏斗進行改進,並逐月成長,實際上只是基於您在第二季度指南中沒有真正看到的技術,因為我們剛剛完全達到我們認為模型反映了風險的程度。但我們認為我們對今年下半年感到非常滿意。

  • Dan Dolev - Analyst

    Dan Dolev - Analyst

  • Got it. Yes, because if I look at the UMI, it seems to be going down, which is a positive signal, correct?

    知道了。是的,因為如果我看一下 UMI,它似乎正在下降,這是一個積極的信號,對嗎?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yes, UMI just very recently took it took a dip which of course is something we like to see, but it's really important to say that it moves a lot week-to-week. We do update the site every week and you'll see it jump around a bit. It has taken a nice turn and we would love to see that become a trend, but we don't bank on that by any stretch. There's certainly a lot of noise in that you have my number on a week-to-week basis, fingers crossed.

    是的,UMI 最近才出現下滑,這當然是我們希望看到的,但重要的是要說它每週都會發生很大的變化。我們每週都會更新網站,您會看到它有點跳躍。它已經發生了很好的轉變,我們希望看到這成為一種趨勢,但我們無論如何也不指望這一點。一定有很多噪音,因為你每週都有我的電話號碼,祈禱吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Scharf, Citizens JMP.

    David Scharf,公民 JMP。

  • David Scharf - Analyst

    David Scharf - Analyst

  • Sanjay, kind of wondering, you had mentioned, I think, in the update about about $2.7 billion of committed capital in flow deals over the next 12 months. As you think notwithstanding, obviously consumer demand and some of the macro uncertainties, you still can't predict. But as you think about your overall volume expectations and should we think about that as pretty much funding entirely new origination activity or is your I guess, 12 months from now we're going to see less balance sheet exposure to the core personal loan product. Meaning, is some of that $2.7 billion going to be I'm focused on perhaps whole loan sales of the existing retention.

    Sanjay,有點想知道,我認為您在更新中提到了未來 12 個月內流動交易中約 27 億美元的承諾資本。正如您所想,儘管如此,顯然消費者需求和一些宏觀不確定性,您仍然無法預測。但當你考慮你的總體數量預期時,我們是否應該將其視為幾乎為全新的發起活動提供資金,或者我猜,從現在起12 個月後,我們將看到核心個人貸款產品的資產負債表敞口減少。意思是,這 27 億美元中的一部分將是我關注的重點,也許是現有保留的全部貸款銷售。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, David, I'm sure yes, that figure I would say is the number that we believe we have pretty direct line of sight to as of right now. And the majority of it is a forward funding, I would say that as the platform scales and certainly as the credit environment and markets become more constructive. And we said that and we have some signals or some reasons to believe that that's currently happening, we would hope to increase that number along with the scaling of the platform so on. So there continued to be more opportunities beyond that $2.7 billion in the pipeline. And I think we said before we want to keep it at some reasonable ratio of the overall platform size. So I guess the implication of all of that is that as the platform grows. And if we're doing our job right on the capital market side, we should be reducing our balance sheet exposure to whole loans.

    嘿,大衛,我確信是的,我想說的這個數字是我們認為我們目前可以直接看到的數字。其中大部分是遠期資金,我想說,隨著平台規模的擴大,當然也隨著信貸環境和市場變得更具建設性。我們說過,我們有一些訊號或一些理由相信這種情況目前正在發生,我們希望隨著平台的擴展等而增加這個數字。因此,除了 27 億美元之外,還有更多機會。我想我們之前說過我們希望將其保持在整個平台大小的合理比例。所以我想這一切的意義是隨著平台的發展。如果我們在資本市場方面做得好,我們就應該減少資產負債表上的全部貸款風險。

  • David Scharf - Analyst

    David Scharf - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just as a follow-up, maybe on that saying those whole loans and the credit side, I guess the roughly $51 million of net fair value adjustment in earnings, I guess it's fair value accounting, that's principally current period losses plus any mark to market. Is that our model -- is that $51 million comprised entirely of charge-offs or did you take any kind of net write-ups or write-downs on the fair value of the loans you've retained.

    知道了。然後,作為後續行動,也許就整個貸款和信貸方面而言,我猜收益中大約有 5100 萬美元的淨公允價值調整,我猜這是公允價值會計,主要是當期損失加上任何標記市場。這就是我們的模型嗎?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And so yes, certainly a large part of it are the ongoing sort of charge offs from the whole loans that are on our balance sheet. And I think if you look into some of the materials in the deck, you'll see that some amount of that was some writing down of our risk positions in some of these co-investment structures largely flowing from what we've been talking about, which is this sort of degradation at the prime end of the borrower spectrum. Now you're starting to see that reflected in some of the markdowns.

    所以,是的,其中很大一部分肯定是我們資產負債表上所有貸款的持續沖銷。我認為,如果你研究甲板上的一些材料,你會發現其中一些內容是我們在一些聯合投資結構中的風險頭寸的寫下,這些結構很大程度上來自我們一直在談論的內容,這是借款人譜系高端的這種退化。現在您開始在一些降價促銷中看到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

    Rob Wildhack,自主研究。

  • Rob Wildhack - Analyst

    Rob Wildhack - Analyst

  • I just wanted to clarify something you said earlier. Are you do you intend to reduce the absolute number of loans on the balance sheet or just the core personal loans on the balance sheet or just the R&D loans on the balance sheet and here up.

    我只是想澄清你之前所說的一些事情。您是否打算減少資產負債表上的貸款絕對數量,或者只是減少資產負債表上的核心個人貸款,或者只是減少資產負債表上的研發貸款等等。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • I think our intention would certainly be to reduce exposure to the core personal loan business. And that, of course, is pending on both the scaling of the platform, but also the level of engagement that we're getting from the capital markets. I think it's probably fair to say that compared to the and the amount of R & D loans we have in the balance sheet today, which is principally comprised of auto, we could we could imagine in a in a perfect world that being reduced as well. But both of those, I think intentions are contingent on us, Certen external things.

    我認為我們的意圖肯定是減少對核心個人貸款業務的曝險。當然,這取決於平台的規模,也取決於我們從資本市場獲得的參與程度。我認為可以公平地說,與我們今天資產負債表中主要由汽車組成的研發貸款相比,我們可以想像在一個完美的世界中,研發貸款也會減少。但我認為這兩者的意圖都取決於我們,某些外在事物。

  • Rob Wildhack - Analyst

    Rob Wildhack - Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. Can you give some color on just how low you'd like to go from the $530 million in core personal or the $1 billion cap that you've discussed in the past and then I'm curious why make this change right now? You've spoken in the past about the attractive return profile of the loans. And I think today you sound pretty positive on the macro outlook or the return profile going forward. So so why the decision to hold fewer loans?

    好的。知道了。您能否具體說明您希望將核心個人資本上限從 5.3 億美元或您過去討論過的 10 億美元上限降低到多低,然後我很好奇為什麼現在要做出這一改變?您過去曾談到貸款的有吸引力的回報狀況。我認為今天您對宏觀前景或未來的回報狀況相當樂觀。那為什麼決定減少持有貸款呢?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Now this is Dave. Let me just maybe take a first crack at that I mean, basically holding whole loans on our balance sheet isn't super efficient. So while we do have we are creating structures with long-term partners, two to be invested alongside them on holding whole loan on the balance sheet, even if they're warehoused or leveraged, isn't particularly efficient. So that's not something we necessarily want to do more than more than necessary for some of the R&D processes, as we've told, that's exactly what we have to do in the personal loan product. We would certainly rather have anything on our balance sheet be in some form of risk sharing or partnership with a long term, a capital provider as opposed to just holding loans until. So our goal would be is to have ultimately no personal loans other than those for some reason and an R & D structure or some kind of risk sharing agreement we have with a long term partner.

    現在這是戴夫。讓我先嘗試一下,我的意思是,基本上在我們的資產負債表上持有全部貸款並不是非常有效。因此,雖然我們確實有,但我們正在與長期合作夥伴建立結構,其中兩個與他們一起投資,在資產負債表上持有全部貸款,即使它們是倉庫或槓桿化的,也不是特別有效。因此,正如我們所說,這並不是我們在某些​​研發流程中必須做的事情,而這正是我們在個人貸款產品中必須做的事情。我們當然希望資產負債表上的任何內容都以某種形式的風險分擔或與資本提供者長期合作,而不是僅僅持有貸款。因此,我們的目標是最終沒有個人貸款,除了出於某種原因和研發結構或我們與長期合作夥伴簽訂的某種風險分擔協議之外的貸款。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll just I'll just add to that briefly, Rob's Dave spoke to sort of the more the long-term intention, our strategy for how we wanted to play our balance sheet in the shorter term to your question of why we are signaling or aspiring to a reduction on all lines in the balance sheet really have to do it what we expressed as a as some some positive signals from the institutional markets and the capital markets in their demand of loans. And of course, if that third party capital has healthy demand for loans, we would always prefer to deliver to them than to hold it on our own balance sheet just because that's in of itself, it's more central to how our business model works.

    我只是簡單地補充一下,羅布的戴夫談到了更多的長期意圖,我們希望如何在短期內發揮我們的資產負債表的策略,以及你為什麼要發出信號的問題或者渴望減少資產負債表中的所有專案確實必須按照我們所說的去做,因為機構市場和資本市場在貸款需求方面發出了一些正面訊號。當然,如果第三方資本對貸款有健康的需求,我們總是更願意向他們提供貸款,而不是將其保留在我們自己的資產負債表上,因為這本身就更重要,這對我們的商業模式運作更為重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Hecht, Jefferies.

    約翰‧赫克特,傑弗里斯。

  • John Hecht - Analyst

    John Hecht - Analyst

  • Afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First question is, I mean, it looks like about $70 million of incremental a little -- north of $70 million incremental capital co-invested in the quarter. How I know you guys did a deal with Aries in the quarter. I'm just wondering can you tell us how much of that co-investment was tied to that deal versus, I guess, upping some of the flow agreements that you've already that you announced prior to this quarter?

    下午好,夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是,我的意思是,看起來大約有 7000 萬美元的增量資本——超出了本季度共同投資的 7000 萬美元的增量資本。我怎麼知道你們在本季與白羊座達成了交易。我只是想知道您能否告訴我們,聯合投資中有多少是與該交易相關的,而不是增加您在本季度之前宣布的一些流量協議?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, John, we don't have an exact breakdown, but Aries was certainly a meaningful portion of some of the overall amount. I mean, if I had to ballpark it, I think something around the order of a half is probably in the ballpark, but we don't have a specific breakdown for you.

    嘿,約翰,我們沒有確切的細分,但白羊座肯定是總數中有意義的一部分。我的意思是,如果我必須粗略地估計的話,我認為大約一半的數量級可能是在粗略範圍內,但我們沒有為您提供具體的細分。

  • John Hecht - Analyst

    John Hecht - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. In any case. And then the second half well with the second half, the growth in the second half. You mentioned the HELOC. I think you mentioned HELOC on a flow agreement on HELOC. Maybe I misheard that. But how do we think about the contribution of some of the newer products to the enhanced growth in the second half versus the first half versus the more traditional products.

    好的。這很有幫助。任何狀況之下。然後下半場配合下半場,下半場成長。你提到了 HELOC。我想您在 HELOC 的流量協定中提到了 HELOC。也許我聽錯了。但我們如何看待一些較新產品相對於上半年和更傳統的產品對下半年加速成長的貢獻。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, John, I'm sorry. Yes, but you're very right. We've got our first sort of forward flow on capital partner and he lock and hoping to bring some more on shortly. I would say, look, we're very excited for some of the newer products, particularly I mean, if you like is a great product in this environment, we talked about how fast small-dollar loans were growing. And I think they're showing the kind of conversion strength where we believe we might be able to start to extract some some good economics there. And but I think in the relatively near term, i.e., for the rest of this year, I think that our economics and our guide really do depend on the core business. I don't think the new products are quite yet going to move the dial in a meaningful way, but we're very excited for them for 2025.

    嘿,約翰,對不起。是的,但你說得非常對。我們已經獲得了資本合作夥伴的第一筆遠期資金流,他鎖定並希望很快能帶來更多資金。我想說,看,我們對一些新產品感到非常興奮,特別是我的意思是,如果你喜歡在這種環境下這是一個很棒的產品,我們討論了小額貸款的增長速度有多快。我認為他們正在展示某種轉換強度,我們相信我們可能能夠開始在那裡提取一些良好的經濟效益。但我認為,在相對近期的時間內,也就是今年剩下的時間裡,我認為我們的經濟和我們的指南確實取決於核心業務。我認為新產品還不會以有意義的方式推動變革,但我們對 2025 年的到來感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Nate Richam], Bank of America.

    [內特·裡查姆],美國銀行。

  • Nate Richam - Analyst

    Nate Richam - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, Jason. My question, I understand you're being conservative on the underwriting, but can you talk a little bit about the demand environment? Who are you producing like I know you like the partner banks are kind of like offset some of this deposit pressure due to the higher yields. I'm just curious if the demand is kind of increased with this higher rate for longer environment?

    下午好,傑森。我的問題是,我知道您對承保持保守態度,但您能談談需求環境嗎?你在生產誰,就像我知道你一樣,合作夥伴銀行有點像是抵消了由於較高的收益率而產生的部分存款壓力。我只是好奇,隨著更長環境的更高速率,需求是否會增加?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • As demand, you're referring to the lending partners that we which we think the supply. But that having been said on, yes, I think the banking credit unions sector has changed from what we would have told you three or six months ago. There was definitely liquidity challenges. Nobody was really wanting to do all that much lending and focused only on their own customers, et cetera. That situation has definitely begun to move the other direction.

    作為需求,您指的是我們認為供應的貸款合作夥伴。但話雖如此,是的,我認為銀行信用合作社部門已經與我們三、六個月前告訴你的相比發生了變化。肯定存在流動性挑戰。沒有人真正想做那麼多貸款,只專注在自己的客戶,等等。這種情況肯定已經開始朝另一個方向發展了。

  • So liquidity seems to be a problem that I'm kind of going away. And exact bank executives generally feeling better about their balance sheet and their position, but they're suddenly the ratios aren't right in terms of having sufficient assets. So there seems to be an increasing appetite for loans on the right types of loans, et cetera, for banks and credit unions. And that's that's been something we're seeing. So we're now at a place where in that part of our on that part of our lending, we definitely have excess capital and because because rates still are super high and that constrains demand from borrowers But having said that, the demand from loans as a group from from banks and credit unions has definitely strengthened.

    所以流動性似乎是我要離開的問題。確切地說,銀行高層普遍對自己的資產負債表和狀況感覺更好,但他們突然發現,就擁有足夠的資產而言,比率不正確。因此,銀行和信用社對適當類型貸款等的貸款興趣似乎越來越大。這就是我們所看到的。因此,我們現在所處的位置是,在我們的那部分貸款中,我們肯定有過剩的資本,因為利率仍然很高,這限制了借款人的需求,但話雖如此,貸款的需求來自銀行和信用合作社的團體無疑地得到了加強。

  • Nate Richam - Analyst

    Nate Richam - Analyst

  • Well, thank you. And then just curious if there's anything to call out from a tax refund season. I mean, we heard if you call it putting things about how seasonal trends played out in the quarter. And I'm just curious like for the loans that you are servicing, do you see anything like just different from a repayment or delinquency standpoint or maybe also loan demands have there? Is there anything different to call out.

    嗯,謝謝。然後我想知道退稅季是否有什麼值得關注的地方。我的意思是,我們聽說,如果你稱之為「闡述本季季節性趨勢的表現」。我只是很好奇,對於您所提供的貸款,您是否認為從還款或拖欠的角度來看有什麼不同,或者貸款要求也有什麼不同?有什麼不一樣的地方可以喊出來嗎?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. Seasonality in our businesses, some fairly consistent with exactly what we would have expected this year where the sort of loan demand trough and also credit performance improves a lot during the season when people are receiving tax refunds from the government. And that has played out every year and we saw it again this year so that that sub we were sort of planning on that. We've begun to model that into our credit, et cetera, and the expected and dumb. So it seems to have gone the usual path.

    是的。我們業務的季節性,有些與我們今年的預期相當一致,在人們收到政府退稅的季節,貸款需求低谷和信貸表現都有很大改善。這種情況每年都會發生,今年我們又看到了這種情況,所以我們正在計劃那個子專案。我們已經開始將其納入我們的信用等以及預期和愚蠢的模型中。如此一來,似乎就走上了平常的路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point.

    朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞,指南針點。

  • Giuliano Bologna - Analyst

    Giuliano Bologna - Analyst

  • One thing I'd be curious about kind of picking random. I mean, I realize you had some commentary about some model improvements, but it seems like a lot of your loans were being priced about 36%. I'm curious if there's any incremental sense of what portion of the funnel you think you could push below 36% over the next few months and quarters and your hub and how that could flow into incremental origination volumes?

    我對隨機選擇感到好奇的一件事。我的意思是,我知道您對某些模型改進有一些評論,但似乎您的許多貸款定價約為 36%。我很好奇您認為在接下來的幾個月和幾個季度內您可以將漏斗的哪一部分推至36% 以下,以及您的中心是否有任何增量意識,以及這將如何流入增量原始量?

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Yeah. Because we have a limit, there's no loans above 36% on our platform. That means when underlying rates or return demands go up as well as when loss assumptions go up, a lot of people will no longer be approved. And that's one of the fundamental challenges of having that that eliminate 36%.

    是的。因為我們有限額,所以我們平台上沒有超過 36% 的貸款。這意味著當基本利率或回報要求上升以及損失假設上升時,許多人將不再被批准。這是消除 36% 的根本挑戰之一。

  • Having said that, it also works the opposite way. So as rates come down and our risk comes down, which we measure as you am, I a lot of those people will come back into the approval fold. So it's one of the things we deal with. We've also mentioned several initiatives to actually bring more people into the approval bucket, things like on the auto secured personal loan things like the small-dollar loan. So we are tackling it on many fronts because we would like to stay in that sort of 36% envelope because it sort of reflects where nationally chartered banks can go. And so it feels like a good a good place for us to be.

    話雖如此,它也以相反的方式運作。因此,隨著利率下降和我們的風險下降(我們按照您的衡量標準),我中的許多人都會重新獲得批准。所以這是我們處理的事情之一。我們還提到了幾項旨在真正讓更多人獲得批准的舉措,例如汽車抵押個人貸款,例如小額貸款。因此,我們正在多方面解決這個問題,因為我們希望保持在 36% 的範圍內,因為它在某種程度上反映了國家特許銀行的發展方向。所以這對我們來說是一個很好的地方。

  • Giuliano Bologna - Analyst

    Giuliano Bologna - Analyst

  • Yes, that's helpful. And then, Earl, as you provide some commentary about the co-investments. It looks like the fair value is down $10 million linked quarter. When I when we think about the kind of bucket of loans that that's the answer to it because I'm sorry, multiple vintages there. I'm curious what vintages are driving that are driving kind of the deterioration in the pool? Is it coming from four quarter old vintages, three-quarter old because it just kind of curious what vintages are driving that and if you're seeing any changes in the but trends across the vintages that are covered by co-investment?

    是的,這很有幫助。然後,厄爾,您對聯合投資提供了一些評論。看起來公允價值比季度下降了 1000 萬美元。當我想到那一桶貸款時,這就是答案,因為我很抱歉,那裡有多個年份。我很好奇是什麼年份導致了泳池的惡化?它來自四分之四的年份,還是四分之三的年份,因為它只是有點好奇是什麼年份推動了這一趨勢,以及您是否看到聯合投資涵蓋的年份的趨勢有任何變化?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, Julien, this is Sanjay? Yes, I would say this is the dynamic here really is more about them and move or maybe call it deterioration at the prime end of the borrower base. And it has happened pretty consistently across vintages. I mean, the more seasoned vintages, the less loss it has left and a slice of the less impactful it is. But I would say all else equal prime borrowers, whether they took out their loan a year ago or a month ago, have all performed a little bit worse this year than they were performing six months ago. And that's the thing that's being reflected in the lower volume guide that we have for Q2 as well as some of the fair value changes that have really been reflected in our risk-sharing positions. So I wouldn't call it a vintage specific thing.

    嘿,朱利安,這是桑傑?是的,我想說,這裡的動態實際上更多是關於他們的,或者可能稱之為借款人基礎高端的惡化。而且這種情況在各年份都經常發生。我的意思是,年份越老,留下的損失就越少,影響力就越小。但我想說的是,所有其他同等的優質借款人,無論他們是一年前還是一個月前貸款,今年的表現都比六個月前的表現要差一些。這就是我們第二季較低的成交量指南中所反映的事情,以及我們的風險分擔部位中真正反映的一些公允價值變動。所以我不會稱它為復古特定的東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simon Clinch, Redburn.

    西蒙·克林奇,雷德伯恩。

  • Simon Clinch - Analyst

    Simon Clinch - Analyst

  • I want to thanks for taking my question. I wanted to follow up on the questions around the second half is the first time for a while we've we've had you give that kind of visibility. And I was wondering if you could perhaps give a little bit more color around what you're actually anticipating in terms of the conversion rate or constraints, ease of what you are assuming in that guidance? And then to that last point about the pipeline for new markets, are you assuming a continued deterioration full income trends are within that?

    我要感謝您提出我的問題。我想跟進下半場的問題,這是我們一段時間以來第一次讓你們提供這樣的可見性。我想知道您是否可以就您在轉換率或限制方面的實際預期以及您在該指南中假設的難易程度提供更多資訊?關於新市場的最後一點,您是否認為全面收入趨勢持續惡化?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • I'll take the first part of your question, which is rather the second half and this year. And again, let me just kind of reiterate some points because as you mentioned, we are going back to longer term some perspective somewhat here. And it's important to remember that the reason we went away from that over the recent past is because we were grappling with a very specific thing in the macro. And that being said is that when I when the economy received a large influx of cash in the form of stimulus that then abruptly stopped it, created it propagated a massive wave of elevated defaults and nothing worked its way through the borrower base starting with the subprime, most folks and working its way to the more and more affluent folks, the Polk, the folks who it was, who were impacted earliest, the borrowers that were at the subprime or end of the spectrum are now well on their way to recovery.

    我將回答你問題的第一部分,即下半年和今年。再次,讓我重申一些觀點,因為正如您所提到的,我們將在這裡稍微回顧一下更長期的一些觀點。重要的是要記住,我們最近放棄這一點的原因是因為我們正在努力解決宏觀中一個非常具體的問題。話雖這麼說,當經濟以刺激的形式獲得大量現金湧入,然後突然停止它時,它傳播了一波大規模的違約率上升,從次貸開始,借款人基礎沒有任何作用。 ,以及越來越富裕的人,即波爾克人,那些最早受到影響的人,那些處於次貸或末期的借款人,現在正在順利復甦。

  • And the promised end of that spectrum, I think we said is sort of like more recently crested in terms of their in terms of their default patterns. And because we've now seen that essentially play itself out, we are now back in the environment where there's just sort of, in our view, regular matching macro risk and execution against the product roadmap in order to create model gains. So I believe we are in some sense back in the environment we were in before the before the stimulus and frankly, the pandemic. And in that world, most of our growth was directly reflected in conversion gain. And most of that conversion gain came directly from improved model accuracy. So I think you can roughly intuit that sequential growth that we're telegraphing for the back half of this year. We expect most of that if not all of it to show up directly in the form of conversion.

    我認為我們所說的這一範圍的承諾終點有點像最近在預設模式方面達到頂峰。因為我們現在已經看到這基本上發揮了作用,所以我們現在又回到了這樣的環境,在我們看來,定期匹配宏觀風險和執行產品路線圖,以創造模型收益。因此,我相信,從某種意義上說,我們又回到了刺激措施之前,坦白說,大流行之前的環境。在那個世界裡,我們大部分的成長直接反映在轉換收益上。大部分轉化收益直接來自模型準確性的提升。因此,我認為您可以粗略地憑直覺看出我們預計今年下半年的連續成長。我們預計其中大部分(如果不是全部)都會直接以轉換的形式出現。

  • Now in a long explanation, I've forgotten what the second part of your question was, would you mind repeating it?

    現在在一個很長的解釋中,我忘了你問題的第二部分是什麼,你介意重複嗎?

  • Simon Clinch - Analyst

    Simon Clinch - Analyst

  • Now the second part of that question was just around the Prima and if you're actually assuming that to deteriorate, but you've said your question sounds like you're assuming just double back into normal levels like this as well.

    現在這個問題的第二部分是關於 Prima 的,如果你真的假設情況會惡化,但你說過你的問題聽起來就像你假設也像這樣雙倍回到正常水平。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • To be very clear. We're not at the box now are very high and we're not expecting them or assuming that they'll go back down and we will just assume that they won't further deteriorate. I think we're sort of roughly assuming a constant macro to today, not an improving one and improving one would we believe be a tailwind to what we're working against.

    說得非常清楚。我們現在還沒有處於非常高的水平,我們不期望它們或假設它們會回落,我們只是假設它們不會進一步惡化。我認為我們粗略地假設了今天的宏觀經濟不變,而不是一個不斷改善的宏觀經濟,而我們認為,不斷改善的宏觀經濟會成為我們正在努力應對的挑戰的順風車。

  • Simon Clinch - Analyst

    Simon Clinch - Analyst

  • Okay, great. And just as a follow-up, on the $2.7 billion of capital that you have, you have visibility into the next 12 months, could you give us a sense of what level of upscaling you've seen to it that gives you that number? And I think you said as well that most of that is actually for flow rather than that kind of long-term committed capital. And so you just clarify some of this trend.

    好的,太好了。作為後續行動,您擁有 27 億美元的資本,您可以了解未來 12 個月的情況,您能否讓我們了解您所看到的升級程度是多少,才能達到這個數字?我想你也說過,其中大部分其實是為了流量,而不是那種長期承諾資本。所以你只是澄清了這一趨勢的一些內容。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, that is correct. I would say the $2.7 billion number really is an expression or a result of the that these sort of continuation or elongation of existing relationships as well as some new ones. It doesn't really contemplate any significant upsizing in existing relationships, although as we mentioned, I do think some of that is in play and we're working on it, but we're not including that in the numbers that we currently have line of sight to.

    對,那是正確的。我想說,27 億美元的數字確實是現有關係以及一些新關係的延續或延伸的表達或結果。它並沒有真正考慮對現有關係進行任何重大擴大,儘管正如我們所提到的,我確實認為其中一些正在發揮作用並且我們正在努力,但我們沒有將其包括在我們目前擁有的數字中的視線到。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Reggie Smith, JPMorgan. And again, Reggie Smith, your line is open. Please go ahead with your call. Your line is open.

    雷吉史密斯,摩根大通。雷吉史密斯,您的電話已接通。請繼續您的通話。您的線路已開通。

  • Reggie Smith - Analyst

    Reggie Smith - Analyst

  • Thank you are for most of them are new. So I wanted to follow up on the last question, there might have been two questions ago you were talking about I guess we have prime exposure and the last call talked about prime kind of deteriorating. And it sounds like in some niche I'm hearing you right, when you speak of prime, you're not talking about Prime in the traditional sense, but you're talking about more product like primer, but still not quite frankly, because Ukraine, who is the prime customer you're talking about in and I know you don't use cycle scores, but like how would that customer translate the cycle, just sort of we're all speaking same language. I'm going to have a few follow-ups. Thank you.

    謝謝你們,其中大多數都是新的。所以我想跟進最後一個問題,在你談論之前可能有兩個問題,我想我們有主要的曝光度,最後一個電話談到了主要的惡化。聽起來好像在某個利基市場,我沒聽錯,當你談到Prime 時,你並不是在談論傳統意義上的Prime,而是在談論更多像底漆這樣的產品,但仍然不太坦率,因為烏克蘭,誰是你所說的主要客戶,我知道你不使用週期分數,但就像該客戶如何翻譯週期一樣,我們都在說同一種語言。我將進行一些後續行動。謝謝。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Reggie, thanks for the question. Yes, as you know, there's a lot of different dimensions or ways to define prime. But for the sake of being reductive, I think you think you could think of the current stress as being somewhere north of 700 FICO score. And I think if you're well below sort of six, 60, you're probably currently on the path to improvement.

    是的,雷吉,謝謝你的提問。是的,如您所知,有許多不同的維度或方法來定義質數。但為了簡化起見,我認為您可以將當前的壓力視為 FICO 分數高於 700 的某個位置。我認為,如果你的成績遠低於 6、60,那麼你目前可能正在進步。

  • Reggie Smith - Analyst

    Reggie Smith - Analyst

  • Understood. And then I guess So thinking about that prime customer. Is there a way to articulate or how should we think about what the current life of loan life of loan loss rate used for that borrower? And maybe how that has changed in the last, call it, six months as you've seen that kind of deteriorate. I'm just kind of curious, like what are you talking about there? And then thinking about the 36% cap, I think last quarter you talked about being able to raise price. And so I'm assuming that they're not that high that there's room to kind of price and maybe talk about the dynamics there, like how much you've been able to raise APRs versus what the loss increases kind of been there?

    明白了。然後我想所以考慮那個主要客戶。有沒有辦法闡明或我們應該如何考慮該借款人目前使用的貸款期限的貸款損失率?也許過去六個月情況發生了怎樣的變化,你已經看到了這種惡化。我只是有點好奇,你在說什麼?然後考慮 36% 的上限,我想上個季度您談到了能夠提高價格。因此,我假設它們並沒有那麼高,以至於有一定的價格空間,也許可以談談那裡的動態,例如你能夠提高多少年利率與那裡的損失增加多少?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And let's see, I mean, if you I think you're asking a little bit about the sort of nature of loss rates in the primer and obviously, they're much lower. I think that you could probably think of them in the sort of low to mid single digits as an expected loss target. And they're probably coming in high to the tune of a 50% plus or so so that adds a couple of 100 basis points to the APR. It certainly does not push them out of or even anywhere near the 36% approval box. But when you get higher APRs, you get lower acceptance rates just due to elasticity. And so conversions are down, volumes are down, et cetera.

    讓我們看看,我的意思是,如果你想問一下入門書中損失率的性質,顯然,它們要低得多。我認為您可能會將低到中個位數的損失視為預期損失目標。而且它們的漲幅可能高達 50% 以上,這使得年利率增加了 100 個基點。這當然不會將他們推出甚至接近 36% 的支援率範圍。但是,當您獲得較高的年利率時,由於彈性,您的接受率就會較低。因此,轉換率下降,銷量下降,等等。

  • Reggie Smith - Analyst

    Reggie Smith - Analyst

  • And then I wanted to ask about. So I appreciate the guidance for the back half of the year. And I guess when you do a simple average, you get to about $150 million on average in fees, and that's about flat to what you did in the fourth quarter of '23. My guess is that there's probably some some patent there on that you probably won't be running it flat as you get to the fourth quarter and there may be some growth there. Can you talk a little bit about if there's anything you can provide in terms of how 3Q and 4Q should we assume kind of flat? Or is it more 4Q loaded?

    然後我想問一下。所以我很感謝下半年的指導。我想,當你進行簡單平均時,平均費用約為 1.5 億美元,這與 2023 年第四季的費用基本持平。我的猜測是,那裡可能有一些專利,當你進入第四季度時,你可能不會平穩運行,那裡可能會有一些成長。您能談談您是否可以提供一些關於我們應該如何假設第三季和第四季持平的資訊嗎?還是4Q負載更多?

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • I mean, I would say it, I don't I think it's safe to assume they won't be flat. I mean, we're going to have to regrowth into that level by getting some conversion gains over time. So I think you could think of that as in hopefully a steady stream of conversion gain that will reap regrowth and add to that scale and consistently.

    我的意思是,我想說,我認為假設它們不會持平是安全的。我的意思是,隨著時間的推移,我們將不得不透過獲得一些轉化收益來重新成長到這個水平。因此,我認為您可以將其視為希望有穩定的轉換收益流,從而獲得再成長並持續擴大規模。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

    詹姆斯‧福賽特,摩根士丹利。

  • James Faucette - Analyst

    James Faucette - Analyst

  • Just a few quick follow-ups from me. On the assumption of what macro does that assume then if we continue to see a bit the deterioration and primer borrowers that you've seen that that would be a headwind? Or are you expecting to be able to offset that with mix? I guess that's my first.

    只是我的一些快速跟進。假設什麼宏觀條件,那麼如果我們繼續看到一點惡化和啟動借款人,你已經看到這將是一個逆風?或者您希望能夠透過混合來抵消這一點?我想那是我的第一次。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay. Again, no, I think that I would maybe say you have sort of flat in aggregate. So if you see mild deterioration at the brand and mild recovery at the maybe the less prime end of that would sort of result in a relatively aggregate neutral macro and under which we could achieve. I think the numbers that we have described.

    好的。再說一次,不,我想我可能會說你總共有一些公寓。因此,如果你看到該品牌的輕微惡化和可能不太高端的溫和復甦,那麼這將導致相對總體中性的宏觀經濟,在這種情況下我們可以實現這一目標。我認為我們已經描述過的數字。

  • James Faucette - Analyst

    James Faucette - Analyst

  • And then just a quick couple of clarifications is that as you're looking to renew some of your long-term capital agreements that were entered into about a year ago, how should we be anticipating change in your terms there? And then I'll just tag and as you're adjusting your OpEx base, is there a level at which you're thinking that you should be very equivalently, you keep OpEx relatively flat from or can you or how do we think about how you're thinking how you're feeling about OpEx, if you if and as we get back to breakeven and profitability? Thank you.

    然後,需要簡單澄清一下,當您希望續簽大約一年前簽訂的一些長期資本協議時,我們應該如何預期您的條款會改變?然後我會標記,當你調整你的營運支出基礎時,是否有一個水平你認為你應該非常同等,你保持運營支出相對平穩,或者你可以或者我們如何考慮如何如果我們恢復盈虧平衡和盈利能力,您對營運支出有何看法?謝謝。

  • Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

    Sanjay Datta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Let's see on the I'll take the second question first on OpEx. So as we as we sort of said, in our remarks, we've taken some cost actions since the end of the quarter, and those will get factored in to the back half of the year. I think that's one component of our return to our EBITDA breakeven. It won't get us there alone. So we are expecting some some growth as well. And if that growth doesn't materialize and it leaves us short of our EBITDA target, then we will sort of reconsider it at that time.

    當然。讓我們先來看看關於營運支出的第二個問題。正如我們在演講中所說,自本季末以來,我們已經採取了一些成本行動,這些行動將在今年下半年考慮。我認為這是我們恢復 EBITDA 盈虧平衡的一個組成部分。它不會讓我們獨自到達那裡。因此,我們也期待一些成長。如果這種成長沒有實現,導致我們無法實現 EBITDA 目標,那麼到時候我們會重新考慮它。

  • And I think your first your initial question or your first part of your question was about the renewal of the committed agreements yet and to what extent that terms are changing like anytime you, these are sort of renewals of existing relationships?

    我認為你最初的問題或問題的第一部分是關於已承諾協議的續簽,以及這些條款在多大程度上發生了變化,就像任何時候你一樣,這些是現有關係的續簽?

  • I think that each time anytime you spend on something like a year and in an initial relationship, you have learnings on both sides of what works well and what doesn't. And so it's natural to come to sort of revisit some of that when you re-up. But I think that some in the large in the grand scheme of things, I don't think those are these are not major changes. I think that I think you can largely think of these as and so surviving sort of persistent relationships with some fine tuning around the edge. I don't think there's anything that will dramatically changed the economic picture for our business model.

    我認為,每當你在一段初始關係中花費一年之類的時間時,你都會學到什麼是有效的,什麼是無效的。因此,當你重新站起來時,很自然地會重新審視其中的一些內容。但我認為,從宏觀的角度來看,我認為這些都不是重大變化。我認為你可以在很大程度上將這些視為某種持續存在的關係,並在邊緣進行一些微調。我認為沒有任何事情會大大改變我們商業模式的經濟狀況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude the question and answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議轉回給您,請您發表補充或結束語。

  • Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

    Dave Girouard - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, Co-Founder

  • Well, thanks to all you for joining us today. And to close. I just want to assure you that we are taking the necessary steps to return to growth and get back to EBITDA profitability, all while continuing to invest in our future with a very fast pace of innovation, we look forward to showing you our progress through 2024 and beyond. Thanks for joining today.

    好的,感謝大家今天加入我們。並關閉。我只是想向您保證,我們正在採取必要的措施來恢復增長並恢復 EBITDA 盈利能力,同時繼續以極快的創新步伐投資於我們的未來,我們期待向您展示我們在 2024 年取得的進展超越。感謝您今天加入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.

    今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天。