Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Upstart 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jason Schmidt。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's second quarter 2023 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議討論 Upstart 2023 年第二季的財務表現。參加今天電話會議的有 Upstart 的執行長 Dave Girouard；以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2023 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天市場收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2023 年第二季度財務業績，並發布了一份投資者關係簡報。上述內容均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上查閱。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter 2023 relating to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC.

在電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如有關我們業務的 2023 年第三季指引以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些聲明是基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。

As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

因此，我們警告您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。除非法律要求，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled against our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，對我們的結果的引用均以非 GAAP 財務指標提供，並與我們的 GAAP 結果進行調節，可以在收益報告和補充表中找到。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Later this quarter, upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, September 7; and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, September 12.

本季晚些時候，upstart 將參加 9 月 7 日舉行的高盛 Communacopia + 技術會議；以及 9 月 12 日的 Piper Sandler 成長前沿會議。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

現在我想把發言權交給 Upstart 執行長 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our second quarter 2023 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的收益電話會議，討論我們 2023 年第二季的業績。我是 Dave Girouard，Upstart 聯合創辦人兼執行長。

I told you last quarter that I was hopeful Q1 was a transitional one for Upstart, and I continue to believe that's the case. I'm pleased we delivered quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 for the first time in more than a year. And more importantly, we achieved record-high contribution margin and positive cash flow, a result of our efforts over the past year to improve efficiency and operating leverage in our business.

我上個季度告訴過你，我希望第一季對 Upstart 來說是一個過渡期，我仍然相信情況確​​實如此。我很高興我們在第二季度實現了一年多以來的首次環比增長。更重要的是，我們實現了創紀錄的貢獻利潤率和正現金流，這是我們過去一年來努力提高業務效率和營運槓桿的結果。

This is despite an environment where banks continue to be super cautious about lending. Interest rates are as high as they've been in decades, and capital markets remain challenged. A close look at our financials in Q2 suggests that Upstart has the opportunity to grow quickly and profitably when we return to a normalized economy.

儘管銀行在貸款方面仍然保持極其謹慎的態度，但情況仍然如此。利率處於幾十年來的最高水平，資本市場仍面臨挑戰。仔細觀察我們第二季的財務狀況，我們可以發現，當經濟恢復正常化時，Upstart 有機會快速成長和獲利。

I'm also pleased to see clear signs that inflation is ebbing. Despite a continued strong labor market, our lens on inflation is different from that of others. From our point of view, wage growth in excess of goods inflation is a new and positive development, particularly for the less affluent segments of the U.S. that we tend to serve.

我也很高興看到通貨膨脹正在消退的明顯跡象。儘管勞動力市場持續強勁，但我們對通膨的看法與其他人不同。從我們的角度來看，薪資成長超過商品通膨是一個新的正面發展，特別是對於我們所服務的美國較不富裕的群體而言。

The market is increasingly optimistic that the Fed can achieve their 2% inflation target without a serious recession. While the recession remains a possibility, our view is it's likely to be a shallow, white collar recession, one less likely to result in significant unemployment for less affluent Americans. And unlike 18 months ago, the Fed now has readily available tools to handle a significant slowing of the economy. They can lower rates to spur growth once again.

市場越來越樂觀地認為，聯準會可以在不出現嚴重經濟衰退的情況下實現 2% 的通膨目標。儘管經濟衰退仍有可能，但我們認為這可能是一次淺度的白領衰退，不太可能導致較不富裕的美國人出現大量失業。與 18 個月前不同的是，聯準會現在擁有隨時可用的工具來應對經濟大幅放緩。他們可以降低利率來再次刺激成長。

We continue to be confident that our core personal loan risk models are properly calibrated and have been so since November of 2022. Thus, we expect these recent vintages to deliver at or above target returns.

我們始終堅信，我們的核心個人貸款風險模型已經過適當校準，自 2022 年 11 月以來一直如此。

Funding markets remain cautious and risk-averse. Banks and credit unions are generally focused on deposits and liquidity, while capital markets are beginning to show signs of normalization. We added another committed capital partner in July, and are in conversations with several more interested parties. We also completed a securitization after the close of Q2, with significantly tighter spreads than our prior deal earlier in the year.

融資市場仍保持謹慎和規避風險的態度。銀行和信用合作社通常關注存款和流動性，而資本市場開始顯示出正常化的跡象。我們在 7 月增加了另一位承諾的資本合作夥伴，並且正在與其他幾家有興趣的公司進行洽談。我們也在第二季結束後完成了證券化，其利差明顯低於今年稍早的交易。

Meanwhile, we continue to manage Upstart cautiously but optimistically in a funding-constrained environment. Every week, I remind the Upstart team to focus maniacally on improving every aspect of our business, strengthening our company for a time when the markets will inevitably return to center.

同時，在資金受限的環境下，我們繼續謹慎但樂觀地管理 Upstart。每週，我都會提醒 Upstart 團隊全神貫注地改善業務的各個方面，為公司在市場不可避免地回歸中心時提供更強的實力。

As I said to you last quarter, I focus our team's energy on improving Upstart in 4 key dimensions: first, best rates for all. The core thesis of Upstart is that superior AI-enabled risk models will improve access to credit for all. And the company that can build superior risk models faster than anyone else stands to benefit from this dramatic transformation of the lending industry.

正如我上個季度所說的那樣，我將我們團隊的精力集中在從四個關鍵方面改進 Upstart：首先，為所有人提供最優惠的價格。 Upstart 的核心論點是，卓越的人工智慧風險模型將改善所有人的信貸管道。而能夠比其他任何人更快建立卓越風險模型的公司將會從貸款行業的這一巨大轉變中受益。

In this light, I want to share an exciting breakthrough, something we call parallel timing curve calibration. This is a technique aimed at accelerating the pace of model calibration, and thus, model development. The challenge with launching a new model in lending is that you have to wait many months to see how it performs in the real world. If you're originating 3-year loans, then you need to originate some loans and then watch them perform for 36 months to have clear feedback on model calibration across the timing curve.

有鑑於此，我想分享一個令人興奮的突破，我們稱之為平行時序曲線校準。這是一種旨在加快模型校準速度並進而加快模型開發速度的技術。推出新的借貸模式的挑戰在於你必須等待數月才能看到它在現實世界中的表現。如果您發放 3 年期貸款，那麼您需要發放一些貸款，然後觀察它們 36 個月的表現，以便對整個時間曲線上的模型校準獲得明確的回饋。

But with parallel timing curve calibration, the new model can be used to re-underwrite all in-process loans from the past, generating new predictions for how they will perform in their remaining months. This is not a back test. The new model is used to predict how all outstanding loans in the platform will perform in coming months, not how they performed to date.

但透過並行時間曲線校準，新模型可用於重新承保過去所有在處理的貸款，並對這些貸款在剩餘幾個月的表現做出新的預測。這不是回溯測試。新模型用於預測平台上所有未償還貸款在未來幾個月的表現，而不是迄今為止的表現。

In this way, within a few months, you can have a clear signal as to calibration across all months in the timing curve. This results in a dramatically faster calibration process for new models. From the point of view of our lending partners and credit investors, this is a giant win, because it means we provide a tighter and faster feedback loop regarding model performance. We're very excited about its potential to extend our leadership in AI lending and are in the process of patenting this technique.

這樣，在幾個月內，您就可以獲得有關時間曲線中所有月份校準的清晰訊號。這使得新模型的校準過程大大加快。從我們的貸款合作夥伴和信貸投資者的角度來看，這是一個巨大的勝利，因為這意味著我們提供了有關模型性能的更緊密、更快的反饋循環。我們對其擴大在人工智慧借貸領域的領導地位的潛力感到非常興奮，並且正在為這項技術申請專利。

Next, more efficient borrowing and lending. Last quarter, we reached an all-time high of 88% of unsecured loans fully automated. That means instant and automated approval with no waiting, no documents to upload and no phone calls. This matters a lot because even the most accurate loan pricing model is useless if applying for a loan is too time consuming or laborious.

其次，借貸效率更高。上個季度，我們的無擔保貸款完全自動化率達到了 88%，創歷史新高。這意味著無需等待、無需上傳文件、無需打電話，即可立即自動批准。這很重要，因為如果申請貸款太耗時或費力，即使是最準確的貸款定價模式也是無用的。

The notion of building an entirely software-driven credit origination process, one that can run 24/7 in a fully lights-out environment, has been with me since Upstart's founding and was inspired by my years at Google.

建立一個完全由軟體驅動的信用發放流程的想法，一個可以在完全熄燈的環境中全天候運行的流程，自從 Upstart 成立以來就一直伴隨著我，並且受到我在谷歌工作多年的啟發。

Please bear with me as I share a short story. In 2003, I was interviewing for a role at Google. The company was still private at the time. So the world knew little about the financial giant that was growing in Mountain View. At one point in the process, the external recruiter said that I couldn't interview that week at Google because the entire company was skiing at Lake Tahoe. I thought to myself, that's a great company. Then she said, "But get this, the company is still making $7 million or $8 million a day in revenue." I thought to myself, no, that's an amazing company. And the idea has stuck with me since.

請耐心聽我分享一個簡短的故事。 2003 年，我參加了谷歌的一個職位的面試。該公司當時仍為私人企業。因此，世人對這個正在山景城成長起來的金融巨頭所知甚少。過程中，外部招募人員曾說過，我那週無法參加Google的面試，因為整個公司都在太浩湖滑雪。我心想，這是一家很棒的公司。然後她說：“但請注意，公司每天的收入仍為 700 萬或 800 萬美元。”我心裡想，不，這是一家了不起的公司。從那時起，這個想法就一直縈繞在我的腦海裡。

So how have we done? In 2016, we began to pursue the goal of fully automated loans, zero human involvement from rate requests to transfer of funds, approved in a matter of seconds, lights out. By Q2 2017, 29% of our unsecured loans were fully automated. In Q2 2019, it was 64%. In Q2 2021, it was 69%. And in Q2 2023, this past quarter, it was 88%.

那我們做得怎麼樣？ 2016年，我們開始追求全自動化貸款的目標，從利率請求到資金轉移無需人工參與，幾秒鐘內即可獲得批准，完全自動化。截至 2017 年第二季度，我們 29% 的無擔保貸款已完全自動化。 2019 年第二季度，這一比例為 64%。 2021 年第二季度，這一比例為 69%。而在 2023 年第二季度，也就是剛過去的這個季度，這一比例為 88%。

Automation doesn't just allow us to scale originations faster than head count. It creates a wow moment for consumers who have never experienced such a fast and effortless loan application process. Recently, we began to brand this Fast Track, something we should probably have done years ago. This breakthrough experience is a signature of Upstart and the lenders that we serve.

自動化不僅使我們能夠以比增加員工數量更快的速度擴大啟動規模。它為那些從未經歷過如此快速、輕鬆的貸款申請流程的消費者創造了一個令人驚嘆的時刻。最近，我們開始為這條快速通道打造品牌，這件事我們幾年前就該做了。這項突破性的體驗是 Upstart 和我們服務的貸款人的標誌。

Next, more resilient. In addition to ongoing initiatives to strengthen the funding side of our marketplace, we continue to optimize our fixed costs. This increases the leverage in our business so that Upstart can thrive across future economic cycles.

其次，更加有彈性。除了持續採取措施加強市場融資方面，我們也持續優化固定成本。這增加了我們業務的槓桿作用，使 Upstart 能夠在未來的經濟週期中蓬勃發展。

In Q2, we identified another $7 million in annual technical infrastructure costs that we can eliminate, bringing our total annual cost savings and tech expenses to nearly $17 million. We continue to hire very modestly and only in strategic situations. We also achieved a contribution margin of 67%, our best ever by a long shot. This is a sure sign that our focus on efficiency is bearing fruit.

在第二季度，我們確定可以消除另外 700 萬美元的年度技術基礎設施成本，使我們的年度總成本節省和技術支出達到近 1700 萬美元。我們繼續以非常謹慎的態度招募員工並且只在具有戰略意義的情況下進行招募。我們還實現了 67% 的貢獻利潤率，這是我們有史以來最好的成績。這是一個明確的信號，表明我們對效率的關注正在取得成果。

A principal driver of this record contribution margin was our efforts to build a stronger relationship with our existing customers. As a result of these efforts, 38% of our originations in Q2 came from repeat borrowers, also a record for us. And as a consequence of that, we also saw a record-low acquisition cost per loan in Q2.

這項創紀錄的貢獻利潤率的主要驅動力是我們努力與現有客戶建立更牢固的關係。由於這些努力，我們第二季的貸款發放中有 38% 來自重複借款人，這也創下了新紀錄。因此，我們也看到第二季每筆貸款的收購成本創下歷史新低。

Next, expanding our footprint. We continue to make progress in our newer products, and are excited to see the progress we'll make through the rest of 2023. In the second quarter, we made significant strides in our auto retail lending business. We expanded our footprint from 39 rooftops with Upstart lending implemented last quarter to 61 rooftops today. We also added 12 additional states we now support, covering more than 65% of the U.S. population. We launched new risk models for both our auto refinance and retail lending products, delivering as much accuracy improvement as we have seen in the last year from our personal loan models. We continue to improve our auto recovery performance, reducing delays in recovery cycle by 75%.

接下來，擴大我們的足跡。我們繼續在新產品上取得進展，並很高興看到我們在 2023 年剩餘時間內取得的進展。我們的覆蓋範圍從上個季度實施的 Upstart 貸款的 39 個屋頂擴大到今天的 61 個屋頂。我們還增加了 12 個目前支持的州，覆蓋了美國 65％ 以上的人口。我們為汽車再融資和零售貸款產品推出了新的風險模型，其準確性與去年個人貸款模型的準確性一樣高。我們不斷提高自動恢復效能，將恢復週期延遲減少 75%。

On the feature side, we launched a new device-agnostic in-store application that expands access to desktops, laptops and tablet browsers. We also brought on our second and third lending partners for auto retail, no easy feat given the current market environment.

在功能方面，我們推出了一款與設備無關的全新店內應用程序，可擴展桌上型電腦、筆記型電腦和平板電腦瀏覽器的存取。我們還引入了第二和第三個汽車零售貸款合作夥伴，這在當前的市場環境下絕非易事。

We're also making rapid progress on our small dollar relief loans. These loans start at just a few hundred dollars and are currently offered only to Upstart applicants who don't qualify for our mainstream personal loans. For this reason, they're entirely incremental to both our approval rates and our model training set.

我們的小額救濟貸款也取得了快速進展。這些貸款起價僅為幾百美元，目前僅提供給不符合我們主流個人貸款資格的 Upstart 申請人。因此，它們對於我們的批准率和模型訓練集來說都是完全增量的。

Our first vintages have now fully reached maturity, and our model is now fully calibrated, with observed losses in line with expectations for our most recent model version.

我們的第一批葡萄酒現已完全成熟，我們的模型現已完全校準，觀察到的損失與我們最新模型版本的預期一致。

In a first for Upstart, we began using cash flow data as part of the risk model for small dollar loans. This incremental data has led to increased approval rates and will eventually become available for all our loan products. Our fully automated rate in Q2 for small dollar loans was 90%, an incredible achievement that demonstrates the power and impact of AI and lending.

對於 Upstart 來說，我們首次開始使用現金流量資料作為小額貸款風險模型的一部分。這些增量數據提高了批准率，並最終將適用於我們所有的貸款產品。我們第二季小額貸款的完全自動化率達到了 90%，這是一項了不起的成就，證明了人工智慧和貸款的力量和影響力。

In Q3, we'll move beyond offering this product exclusively to those declined for personal loans and will finally enable direct consumer applications.

在第三季度，我們將不再僅僅向那些個人貸款被拒絕的人提供該產品，而是最終支持直接消費者申請。

Last but not least, I'm happy to let you know that our home equity product is officially off the ground with a pilot program in the state of Colorado. We expect to fast follow with the state of Michigan and also hope to be in a handful of additional states by the end of Q3.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我很高興地告訴大家，我們的房屋淨值產品已在科羅拉多州正式啟動試點。我們預計將快速跟進密西根州的進展，並希望在第三季末能夠拓展到其他幾個州。

This is the first Upstart product specifically designed for prime borrowers, where a superior process enabled by automation is a richer source of differentiation than loan pricing itself. As a reminder, I mentioned last quarter that we're targeting online approval in less than 10 minutes and a closing process of less than 5 days for an Upstart-powered HELOC against an industry average closing time of more than a month.

這是 Upstart 第一款專為優質借款人設計的產品，其中透過自動化實現的卓越流程比貸款定價本身更具差異化優勢。提醒一下，我在上個季度提到過，我們的目標是在 10 分鐘內實現線上審批，並在 5 天內完成由 Upstart 提供支援的 HELOC 的結算流程，而行業平均結算時間則需要一個多月。

To wrap up, we're not yet certain the economy is headed to a better place. So we continue to be cautious while investing for the long term. And you're now beginning to see the benefits of our disciplined approach. Regardless of the economy's direction in the coming months, I'm confident that we're building a better, stronger enterprise for the future. We are in the pole position to lead the industry to an AI-enabled future, one that represents a giant leap forward for both borrowers and lenders. And we do this not because of fascination with AI, but because of what brought us here, the potential to dramatically improve access to credit for tens or even hundreds of millions of Americans.

總而言之，我們還不確定經濟是否會變得更好。因此，我們在長期投資時繼續保持謹慎。現在您開始看到我們嚴謹做法的好處了。無論未來幾個月經濟走向如何，我堅信我們將為未來打造一個更優秀、更強大的企業。我們正處於引領產業走向人工智慧未來的有利位置，這對借款人和貸款人來說都是一個巨大的飛躍。我們這樣做並不是因為對人工智慧的迷戀，而是因為人工智慧有潛力大幅改善數千萬甚至數億美國人的信貸管道。

There are many dimensions along which you can weigh our efforts to make Upstart stronger: speed of model development; strength of unit economics; low fixed costs, demonstrable leverage in our business; improved funding supply; and growing product diversity. But the dimension that gives me confidence more than any of these is talent density, at both the executive and individual contributor level.

您可以從多個方面衡量我們為使 Upstart 更強大所做的努力：模型開發速度；單位經濟實力；固定成本低，業務槓桿明顯；改善資金供應；以及日益增長的產品多樣性。但最讓我有信心的維度是人才密度，包括主管和個人貢獻者層面的人才密度。

For those excited about AI and passionate about its potential to improve lives, we know of no better place than Upstart to build a career. And while we're hiring strategically and with extreme caution, our digital-first approach is enabling us to hire top talent across the country. More than 90% of job candidates have accepted our offers in recent months, an incredible success rate. While much of the world is debating how to return to the office full time, we're very happy with the results of our digital-first approach.

對於那些對人工智慧感到興奮並對其改善生活的潛力充滿熱情的人來說，我們知道沒有比 Upstart 更好的地方來建立職業生涯了。雖然我們在策略性地、極其謹慎地招聘，但我們的數位優先方法使我們能夠在全國範圍內招聘頂尖人才。近幾個月來，超過 90% 的求職者接受了我們的錄用，成功率令人難以置信。當世界上許多人正在討論如何全職重返辦公室時，我們對我們的數位優先方法的結果感到非常滿意。

I will close with a huge thank you to all Upstarters, as well as the family and the friends that support them. We're on an incredible mission together, and it wouldn't be possible without each of you. Thank you.

最後，我要向所有 Upstarters 以及支持他們的家人和朋友表示誠摯的感謝。我們共同肩負著不可思議的使命，如果沒有你們每個人的努力，這項使命就不可能實現。謝謝。

And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 2023 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

現在，我想將麥克風交給我們的財務長桑傑 (Sanjay)，來介紹我們 2023 年第二季的財務表現和指引。桑傑？

Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We're pleased with our return to sequential growth and EBITDA profitability this past quarter, as our work to unlock committed funding, rationalize our fixed cost base and expand margins begins to bear fruit. We accomplished these objectives despite ongoing macro challenges for our lending partners. And despite a U.S. borrower whose recovery from the stimulus-driven effects of 2021 and 2022 has yet to fully materialize.

謝謝，戴夫，也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們很高興看到公司上個季度恢復了連續成長和 EBITDA 獲利，因為我們為解鎖承諾資金、合理化固定成本基礎和擴大利潤率所做的工作開始取得成果。儘管我們的貸款夥伴仍面臨宏觀挑戰，但我們還是完成了這些目標。儘管美國借款人尚未完全從 2021 年和 2022 年的刺激措施推動下實現復甦。

Our best measure of borrower delinquency trends, the Upstart Macro Index, has tread water over the past few months and in fact, even seen a more recent seasonal increase versus earlier '22 and '23 levels as we came off with a favorable tax refund seasonality that ran through April.

我們衡量借款人拖欠趨勢的最佳指標——新貴宏觀指數，在過去幾個月中一直保持穩定，事實上，由於 4 月份的退稅季節性因素較為有利，與 22 年和 23 年之前的水平相比，該指數甚至出現了季節性增長。

Despite a continuing recovery in the disposable income stemming from the ever-strengthening labor market, any incremental earnings over the past quarter have been directed almost entirely towards higher consumption, which has continued to increase in lockstep. And consumer balance sheets have not benefited from incremental savings as they had earlier in the year.

儘管隨著勞動市場的不斷增強，可支配收入持續回升，但過去一個季度的任何增量收入幾乎都用於增加消費，而消費一直在同步增長。而消費者的資產負債表並未像今年稍早那樣從增量儲蓄中受益。

Despite these latest dynamics, we believe our underwriting models remain well calibrated to this environment. And we are expecting our vintages since late 2022 to deliver or exceed their targets.

儘管出現了這些最新動態，我們相信我們的核保模式仍然能夠很好地適應這種環境。我們預計，自 2022 年底以來，我們的葡萄酒將達到或超過其目標。

On the funding side of the ecosystem, banks remain conservative in managing the asset side of their balance sheets, generally seeking to rationalize loan positions and conserve cash in aggregate. The ongoing supply of loans on offer in the secondary markets by sellers anxious for liquidity contributes to a challenging market dynamic, with loan books being sold at bargain prices and creating no shortage of buying opportunities for selected investors.

在生態系統的融資方面，銀行在管理資產負債表的資產方面仍持保守態度，通常尋求合理化貸款狀況並總體上節省現金。急需流動性的賣家在二級市場上持續提供貸款，導致市場動態更加緊張，貸款帳簿以低價出售，為特定投資者創造了充足的買入機會。

Our view is that it will take some time for the market to work its way through this surplus of cheap available yield. Despite this, we continue to pursue a number of promising discussions with prospective funding partners, aimed at bringing more committed capital to the platform, and believe that we will be well positioned once the loan market returns to a more traditional state of pricing equilibrium.

我們認為，市場需要一段時間來解決這個廉價可用收益過剩的問題。儘管如此，我們仍繼續與潛在的融資夥伴進行一些有希望的討論，旨在為平台帶來更多承諾資本，並相信一旦貸款市場恢復到更傳統的定價平衡狀態，我們將處於有利地位。

With these items as context, here are some financial highlights from the second quarter of 2023. Revenue from fees was $144 million in Q2, comfortably above our guided expectation of $130 million, aided by a beneficial mix shift towards institutional funding as well as ongoing take-rate optimization.

以這些項目為背景，以下是 2023 年第二季的一些財務亮點。

Net interest income was negative $8 million, largely owing to higher-than-expected discount rates and unrealized fair value adjustments on some existing assets as well as the impact of rising borrower charge-offs, particularly in our legacy R&D portfolio.

淨利息收入為負 800 萬美元，主要由於折現率高於預期和部分現有資產未實現的公允價值調整，以及借款人沖銷增加的影響，尤其是在我們傳統的研發組合中。

Taken together, net revenue for Q2 came in at $136 million, slightly above guidance and representing a 40% contraction year-over-year.

整體來看，第二季淨收入為 1.36 億美元，略高於預期，年減 40%。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 109,000 loans, up roughly 30% sequentially and representing over 43,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of $11,000 was up 4% versus the same period last year, but down sequentially due to growth in small dollar loans.

我們平台第二季的貸款交易量約為 109,000 筆，較上季成長約 30％，新增借款人超過 43,000 名。平均貸款額為 11,000 美元，比去年同期增長 4%，但由於小額貸款增長，環比下降。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees, came in at 67% in Q2, up 20 percentage points from 47% last year and 7 percentage points above our guided expectation for the quarter.

我們的貢獻利潤率是一項非公認會計準則指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的變動成本佔費用收入的百分比。

Continued investment in loan processing automation and fraud models have led to a new high in fully automated rates at 87%, bringing down loan onboarding costs and improving the conversion efficiency of our marketing dollars. Higher numbers of repeat borrowers have similarly improved our overall cost per acquisition, and a mix shift towards institutional funding has benefited our take rates. Taken together, our contribution margins are stronger than they have ever been.

對貸款處理自動化和詐欺模型的持續投資使完全自動化率達到 87% 的新高，降低了貸款入職成本並提高了我們的行銷資金的轉換效率。重複借款人數量的增加同樣改善了我們每次收購的總體成本，而向機構融資的混合轉變使我們的利率受益。總的來說，我們的貢獻利潤率比以往任何時候都要高。

Operating expenses were $169 million in Q2, down 35% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, as workforce restructuring initiatives announced in Q1 are now translating into reduced operating burn. In addition, as Dave alluded to, we have done a significant amount of work to improve the efficiency and decrease the overall expense of our technical infrastructure, which represents a large portion of our fixed cost base.

第二季的營運費用為 1.69 億美元，年減 35%，季減 28%，這是因為第一季宣布的勞動力重組措施現在轉化為營運成本的減少。此外，正如戴夫所提到的，我們已經做了大量工作來提高效率並降低技術基礎設施的整體費用，這占我們固定成本基礎的很大一部分。

Declines in other categories such as sales and marketing and consumer -- customer operations were largely in line with the decline in the loan volumes that drive them.

銷售和行銷以及消費者-客戶營運等其他類別的下滑與導致這些業務的貸款量的下滑基本一致。

Altogether, Q2 GAAP net loss was $28.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $11 million, both comfortably ahead of guidance. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.06, based on a diluted weighted average share count of 91.0 million.

整體而言，第二季 GAAP 淨虧損為 2,820 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為正 1,100 萬美元，均遠超預期。根據稀釋加權平均股數 9,100 萬股計算，調整後每股收益為 0.06 美元。

We ended the quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $838 million, down sequentially from $982 million the prior quarter. Of that amount, loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally within the auto segment, represented $493 million of the total.

截至本季末，我們資產負債表上的貸款為 8.38 億美元，較上一季的 9.82 億美元有所下降。其中，用於研發（主要用於汽車領域）的貸款佔總數的 4.93 億美元。

Just after quarter close, we completed a one-off $200 million ABS transaction funded entirely from our own balance sheet. As you may recall, we traditionally sponsor ABS transactions on behalf of our loan buyers, who are usually the principal economic agents and loan contributors to the transaction. In this case, we took the unusual step of funding a deal from the Q2 vintages accumulated entirely on our own balance sheet.

在本季結束後不久，我們完成了一筆 2 億美元的一次性 ABS 交易，資金完全來自我們自己的資產負債表。您可能還記得，我們​​傳統上代表我們的貸款購買者贊助 ABS 交易，他們通常是交易的主要經濟主體和貸款貢獻者。在這種情況下，我們採取了不同尋常的舉措，以我們自己資產負債表上完全累積的第二季資金為交易提供資金。

We did this both to reset the market understanding for how our more recent vintages should be expected to perform, as well as to serve as a visible signal to the market of our confidence in the adjustments that have been made by our own underwriting models in adapting to the new environment.

我們這樣做既是為了重新設定市場對我們近期業績的預期，也是為了向市場發出一個明顯信號，表明我們對自己的承保模式為適應新環境而做出的調整充滿信心。

Our corporate liquidity position at the end of Q2 remains strong, with $510 million of total cash on the balance sheet and approximately $558 million in net loan equity at fair value.

我們第二季末的企業流動性狀況依然強勁，資產負債表上的總現金為 5.1 億美元，以公允價值計算的淨貸款權益約為 5.58 億美元。

Looking ahead, while there remain good reasons to be optimistic about the general longer-term direction of the U.S. consumer, in the short term, we remain circumspect about the timing of the recovery of borrower delinquency trends and the recovering health of the funding markets, more broadly.

展望未來，雖然我們仍然有理由對美國消費者的長期整體走向感到樂觀，但在短期內，我們仍然對借款人拖欠趨勢的復甦時機和融資市場整體健康狀況的恢復持謹慎態度。

In particular, until we see a definitive inflection and reversal in the trajectory of UMI, we will continue to err on the side of being very conservative in our assessment and pricing of borrowers.

特別是，在我們看到 UMI 軌跡出現明確的轉折點和逆轉之前，我們將繼續在對借款人的評估和定價方面採取非常保守的態度。

With this context in mind, for Q3 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $140 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $150 million and net interest income of approximately negative $10 million; contribution margin of approximately 65%; net income of approximately negative $38 million; adjusted net income of approximately negative $2 million; adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million; and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 84.5 million shares.

基於此背景，我們預計 2023 年第三季總收入約為 1.4 億美元，其中包括 1.5 億美元的費用收入和約負 1,000 萬美元的淨利息收入；貢獻利潤率約65%；淨收入約為負3800萬美元；調整後淨收入約為負200萬美元；調整後的 EBITDA 約為 500 萬美元；稀釋加權平均股數約8,450萬股。

Notwithstanding the promising direction this past quarter, there is still much work to be done to restore our business to the scale and growth that we aspire to. We have made encouraging recent strides in execution, operational discipline, technological innovation and dealmaking. And while we await emergence from the combined jet wash of the funding macro and the borrower delinquency trends that are running their course, we will continue to push for further progress in all of these areas. When we are finally clear of the environmental turmoil around us, we are convinced that our business will be as formidable as ever.

儘管上個季度的發展方向充滿希望，但要恢復我們業務的規模和成長，我們仍有許多工作要做。我們最近在執行、營運紀律、技術創新和交易方面取得了令人鼓舞的進步。在我們等待融資宏觀因素和借款人拖欠趨勢的綜合影響顯現的同時，我們將繼續推動所有這些領域取得進一步進展。當我們最終擺脫周圍的環境動盪時，我們確信我們的業務將一如既往地強大。

Thanks to all of the teams at Upstart who continue to execute ahead of expectations. This has obviously not been an easy past few quarters, but I am confident that we are pointed in the right direction and that we have the right people in place to seize the once-in-a-generation opportunity that remains before us. Or, as we like to say internally, we are under the maple tree.

感謝 Upstart 所有團隊持續超越預期的表現。過去幾季顯然過得併不輕鬆，但我相信，我們正朝著正確的方向前進，我們也有合適的人才來抓住我們面前千載難逢的機會。或者，正如我們內心喜歡說的那樣，我們在楓樹下。

With that, Dave and I are happy to open the call to any questions. Operator?

因此，戴夫和我很樂意回答任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

（操作員指示）我們將回答 Atlantic Equities 的 Simon Clinch 提出的第一個問題。

I'm really interested in, I guess, what levers you -- or perhaps how you respond when you start to see the UMI flatten or improve, what are the levers that you would be able to pull? And how should we think, therefore, about the speed at which you can start to get a recovery in your conversion rates and your general loan growth and your market share gains as a result of that?

我真正感興趣的是，當您開始看到 UMI 趨於平穩或改善時，您會採取哪些措施——或者您可能會如何應對，您會採取哪些措施？那麼，我們該如何看待你們的轉換率、整體貸款成長以及市佔率成長的恢復速度呢？

Sure. Thanks, Simon. This is Dave. Basically, we are watching UMI trends and effectively maintaining what we hope to be a buffer between the assumptions that are in a new loan model or in the loans that are being produced in any particular time to the trend in UMI. So as we will hopefully see over time, UMI trending back down, at some point, the underlying assumption in the models, we'll stick with that. And again, maintaining -- always aiming to maintain a buffer, but it should trend down. So UMI, as you see, it really is the output of what's going on out there in the economy. And we always want to stay ahead of it. And the best thing we can really do is make sure UMI is as accurate and as recent as possible. That's why we're sort of continuing to innovate on it. But it will be a good indication of when the assumptions that will go into the next loans that are being originated.

當然。謝謝，西蒙。這是戴夫。基本上，我們正​​在關注 UMI 趨勢，並有效地維持我們所希望的緩衝，即新貸款模型中的假設或在任何特定時間產生的貸款與 UMI 趨勢之間的緩衝。因此，我們希望看到，隨著時間的推移，UMI 呈現回落趨勢，在某個時候，我們將堅持模型中的基本假設。再次強調，始終致力於維持緩衝，但它應該呈下降趨勢。所以如你所見，UMI 實際上是經濟活動的輸出。我們始終希望保持領先地位。我們真正能做的最好的事情就是確保 UMI 盡可能準確和最新。這就是我們不斷創新的原因。但它能夠很好地預示何時將這些假設運用到下一筆貸款中。

Okay. I understand. And just as a follow-up then, I was wondering, maybe, Sanjay, you could talk through the slide on the long-term funding commitments and your share of the risk and just make sure we understand sort of what's going on in that particular situation as an example.

好的。我明白。作為後續問題，我在想，桑傑，你能否透過幻燈片談談長期資金承諾以及你所承擔的風險份額，並確保我們了解在特定情況下發生的情況。

Simon, this is Sanjay. Happy to do it. Yes, so we have a new slide in our materials that's meant to sort of pull together the punch line for essentially what we have at risk as part of our committed capital partnerships. They're a little bit hard to pull together in the financials directly because the contracts are a little bit different and they're all accounted for a little bit differently. But I guess at a headline level, as part of those deals, we have invested or co-invested to date on the order of $40 million. So that, I guess, you can think of as the maximum exposure we have.

西蒙，這是桑傑。很開心能做到。是的，我們的資料中有一個新投影片，目的是將我們在承諾的資本夥伴關係中所面臨的風險匯總在一起。在財務層面上，直接將它們匯總起來有些困難，因為合約有些不同，而且它們的會計處理方法也有些不同。但我想從總體層面來看，作為這些交易的一部分，迄今為止我們已投資或共同投資了約 4000 萬美元。所以，我想，你可以認為這就是我們所擁有的最大曝光率。

That $40 million, over time, will be worth as little as 0 or as much as around $80 million, $83 million, I guess, depending on the timing extent to which these loans over- or underperform. Our best current estimate, given the trend, is that that $40 million, we believe, is on track to be worth about $52 million. So there's some marginal overperformance there. But that's something that we will obviously forecast and interact with you guys over time.

我猜，隨著時間的推移，這 4,000 萬美元的價值將至少為 0，也可能高達 8,000 萬美元或 8,300 萬美元，這取決於這些貸款表現超出或低於預期的程度。根據這一趨勢，我們目前的最佳估計是，我們認為這 4,000 萬美元的價值將達到約 5,200 萬美元。因此，那裡存在一些邊際超額表現。但這是我們顯然會預測的事情，並且會隨著時間的推移與你們互動。

We will take our next question from Lance Jessurun with BTIG.

我們將回答 BTIG 的 Lance Jessurun 提出的下一個問題。

First one's just around kind of the governor on your growth right now, which is that 36% APR. Any commentary or color around how many you kind of have to turn back right now because the risk model is turning them above 36%? And how should we kind of think about that going forward in the coincidence of where you see Fed funds going?

第一個是關於您目前成長的調節器，即 36% 的年利率。由於風險模型將其調高至 36% 以上，對於現在您必須回頭的數量，您有何評論或解釋？在您看來，聯邦基金的走向與未來趨勢一致，我們該如何看待這個問題？

Lance, let's see. So I guess that 36% APR cap with the current levels of UMI is a significant constraint on our business. In fact, I think as we stand today, it's probably the bigger constraint on growth on our platform. It's very punitive from the perspective of our approval rates, which are quite low right now.

蘭斯，讓我們看看。因此，我猜測，在目前 UMI 水準下，36% 的 APR 上限會對我們的業務造成重大限制。事實上，我認為就目前情況而言，這可能是我們平台成長的更大限制因素。從我們的支持率來看，這是非常嚴厲的，目前的支持率相當低。

How to think about this evolving going forward? Well, the 36% APR cap will not change. That's something that is sort of sacred to us. As UMI declines, sort of as Simon said in his question, is our observed -- the observation of UMI declines over time, because presumably, the macro economies coming back into equilibrium, we will accordingly reduce the forward assumptions being fed to the model, and that will essentially reflect lower loss estimates over time. And that will pull borrowers who are currently excluded from our credit box, they'll pull them back into the approval universe. So that's the mechanism by which we would expect to grow as loss rates in the economy subside and as UMI comes back down.

如何看待這未來的發展？那麼，36% 的 APR 上限不會改變。這對我們來說是一件神聖的事。正如 Simon 在問題中所說的那樣，隨著 UMI 的下降，我們觀察到 UMI 隨時間下降，因為大概宏觀經濟會恢復平衡，我們會相應地減少輸入模型的前瞻性假設，這基本上將反映出隨著時間的推移損失估計的降低。這將吸引那些目前被排除在我們的信貸範圍之外的借款人，並將他們拉回審批範圍內。因此，隨著經濟損失率下降和 UMI 回落，我們預計這種機制將會成長。

Got it. And then in terms of July data, I know there's been some alternative data sources out there, but anything you can kind of frame around July data and where it's come in? And how do you kind of see that in terms of a quarter -- or in terms of a monthly run rate through August and September?

知道了。然後就 7 月的數據而言，我知道目前有一些其他數據來源，但您能圍繞 7 月的數據以及其來源進行概括嗎？那麼您以季度為單位或以 8 月和 9 月的月度運行率來看，您如何看待這一情況？

So you're asking about July data, Lance?

那麼，蘭斯，您問的是七月的數據嗎？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

I don't -- we're not in a really – really, in a position to comment at all on July numbers. Hopefully, we'll have a good report for you when we talk about Q3.

我不知道——我們真的無法對七月份的數據發表評論。希望我們在討論第三季時能夠為您提供一份好的報告。

We will take our next question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們將回答巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal 提出的下一個問題。

This is John Coffey on for Ramsey. I was wondering, Sanjay, if you could tell me a little bit more about the loan balances you have on the balance sheet. I know some came off in Q2, I think, from some of your new partners. And clearly, those got built up a little bit again. Could you just maybe talk briefly about how we should think about the cadence of those loans on the balance sheet for the remainder of the year? And if that like $1 billion mark is still sort of like maybe -- any sort of an informal high watermark that you won't go beyond? Or have you rethought that a little bit?

這是拉姆齊的約翰‧科菲 (John Coffey)。桑傑，我想知道你是否可以告訴我更多有關資產負債表上的貸款餘額的資訊。我知道你們的一些新合作夥伴在第二季度做出了一些貢獻。顯然，這些又稍微累積起來了。您能否簡單談談我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間內這些貸款在資產負債表上的節奏？如果 10 億美元大關仍然有點像是——某種非正式的高水位線，你們不會超越它嗎？或者您對此有稍微重新考慮過嗎？

John, I guess a specific comment and a general comment. The comment specific to Q2 would be, yes, it is true that while the net loan balance from Q1 to Q2 went down, we sort of went down further and then built it back up. One of the things we were doing very deliberately was to build up some very fresh collateral to be able to put into an ABS deal. And that ABS deal, as I said in my remarks, happened after the end of the quarter. So those loans sort of stood on our balance sheet at the end of the quarter, and shortly after, we put them into an ABS deal.

約翰，我想這是一個具體的評論和一個一般性的評論。針對第二季的具體評論是，是的，雖然從第一季到第二季的淨貸款餘額確實下降了，但我們先是進一步下降，然後又重新上升。我們非常謹慎地做的一件事就是建立一些非常新的抵押品，以便投入 ABS 交易中。正如我在發言中所說，那筆 ABS 交易是在本季結束後發生的。因此，這些貸款在本季末就出現在我們的資產負債表上，不久之後，我們將它們納入 ABS 交易。

It's a bit unusual for us to run an ABS deal off of our own balance sheet, as I said, but there's a couple of important reasons for why we wanted to do it. We wanted to put fresh collateral into the securitization reporting so that people could see how the models have changed and how they might expect freshly originated loans to perform. So that's maybe 1 dynamic that's specific to the quarter.

正如我所說，在我們自己的資產負債表之外進行 ABS 交易有點不尋常，但我們想這樣做有幾個重要的原因。我們希望將新的抵押品納入證券化報告，以便人們能夠了解模型是如何變化的，以及他們對新發放貸款的表現有何預期。所以這可能是本季特有的一個動態。

More generally, I think our construct has not changed. We're comfortable going up to a number around $1 billion or so in loan assets. And that's a number that leaves us with still, I think, a comfortable amount of cash to continue running the business and add some safety stock. And within that parameter, we'll sort of flex up and down as we believe benefits the business.

更普遍地說，我認為我們的結構沒有改變。我們願意將貸款資產規模提高到 10 億美元左右。我認為，這個數字讓我們仍然有足夠的現金來繼續經營業務並增加一些安全庫存。並且在這個參數的範圍內，我們會根據我們認為對業務有利的情況進行上下調整。

We will take our next question from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Rob Wildhack。

Just another question about the committed capital co-investment. I do appreciate the detail in the slides there. How are changes to that reflected in the income statement? And does that mean that there's a plus $11.5 million impact in the second quarter from the markup over the $40.2 million?

關於承諾資本共同投資的另一個問題。我非常欣賞幻燈片中的細節。這些變化如何反映在損益表中？這是否意味著第二季的 4,020 萬美元加價將帶來 1,150 萬美元的額外影響？

Yes. Rob, so the short answer is no. That impact is not in the P&L. I wish it were that simple. The reality is we've done a couple of different deals and contractually, they all have their nuances. I think the result of that is that they're all being accounted for it in slightly different ways. Some of it is showing up in the balance sheet as a beneficial interest. Some of it is showing up on the balance sheet under our restricted assets. Some of it is being fair valued. Some of it is being carried at cost. So I think the difficulty of trying to pull all those different accounting treatments together and create a clear picture is the reason why we're just going to put it on 1 slide for you.

是的。羅布，簡短的回答是「不」。此影響並未體現在損益表中。我希望事情就這麼簡單。事實上我們已經做過幾筆不同的交易，從合約上看，它們都有各自的細微差別。我認為其結果是，他們都以略微不同的方式對此進行了解釋。其中一部分在資產負債表中以受益權益的形式出現。其中一些出現在我們的受限資產的資產負債表上。其中部分價值已公允估價。其中部分以成本價承擔。因此，我認為，將所有這些不同的會計處理方法整合在一起並創建一個清晰的圖景非常困難，這就是我們只將其放在一張投影片上的原因。

But the short answer to your ultimate question is, no, it's not really hitting the P&L in a way where fair value is being recognized in the net interest income line.

但對於你的最終問題，簡短的回答是，不，它並沒有真正以在淨利息收入中確認公允價值的方式影響損益表。

Okay. And then of the $2 billion longer-term funding commitment you announced in May, how much of that was funded in the second quarter?

好的。那麼，您在 5 月宣布的 20 億美元長期融資承諾中，有多少是在第二季提供的？

I mean I would say approximately -- if you sort of remove the back book component that was a component of that original deal, roughly 1/4.

我的意思是，如果去掉原始交易的後台帳簿部分，大概是 1/4。

Okay. So 1/4 in excess of the $352 million that you sold.

好的。因此，比您出售的 3.52 億美元超出 1/4。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Got that, Rob?

明白了嗎，羅布？

No, I think you dropped for me quickly.

不，我想你很快就拋棄我了。

Oh sorry. I just said that that's correct. The statement that you made beyond the back book sale, it was about 1/4 of the remainder.

噢，抱歉。我只是說那是正確的。除了後續圖書銷售外，您所說的收入約佔剩餘收入的 1/4。

We will take our next question from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。

Just hoping to get a little bit of clarification really quickly here. And maybe I missed it. In the guide, you're looking for around a minus $10 million net interest income in the third quarter. Is that being driven by loans on the balance sheet or the way that the funding commitments work through the P&L? Just trying to make sure I understand that mechanism.

只是希望能在這裡快速得到一點澄清。我或許錯過了。在該指南中，您預計第三季的淨利息收入約為負 1000 萬美元。這是由資產負債表上的貸款推動的，還是由資金承諾透過損益表運作的方式推動的？只是想確保我理解這個機制。

James, yes, I would say a major factor in that number is the fact that by and large, our balance sheet now, particularly after the ABS deal we completed, which -- where we cleared out most of our recent sort of core personal loans, the remaining balances are R&D and a lot of it is very seasoned. And some of those older vintages of, say, auto loans, auto loans from 1.5 years ago, their charge-offs are starting to grow, both because they were originated at a time where our models were still sort of in calibration and as well, they were originated in an environment that was -- and has rapidly deteriorated.

詹姆斯，是的，我想說這個數字的一個主要因素是，總的來說，我們現在的資產負債表，特別是在我們完成 ABS 交易之後，我們清算了最近的大部分核心個人貸款，剩餘的餘額是研發，其中很多都是非常成熟的。而一些較舊的貸款，例如 1.5 年前的汽車貸款，它們的沖銷額開始增加，這既是因為我們模型還在校準階段，也是因為它們起源於一個已經迅速惡化的環境。

So on some of the -- maybe you could think of this partly as some of the cost of doing R&D. We've got a book of R&D loans now and the charge-offs are elevated.

因此，從某種程度上來說，也許你可以將其部分視為研發成本的一部分。我們現在有大量研發貸款，沖銷金額很高。

Okay. Great. And then I guess just as related to demand and originations, like how are you thinking about the impact from higher take rate? And how should we think about how those could move and how overall origination should trend, at least on a sequential basis through the rest of this year and into '24?

好的。偉大的。然後我想就像與需求和發起相關一樣，您如何看待更高的接受率帶來的影響？我們該如何思考這些因素將如何變化，以及整體起源趨勢如何，至少在今年剩餘時間和2024年以連續基礎來看？

James, for sure, our rates are kind of as high as they've ever been, I believe, and that -- part of that is a function of UMI being super high. Part of it is the return demanded by the market is much higher, of course, related to Fed rates. And also our take rate is high. And all 3 of those contribute to the rates being high.

詹姆斯，可以肯定的是，我相信我們的利率已經達到了歷史最高水平，部分原因是 UMI 非常高。部分原因是市場要求的回報要高得多，當然，這與聯準會利率有關。而且我們的接受率也很高。所有這三個因素都導致了利率過高。

We would anticipate those things kind of coming off together. So as you see UMI trend down and maybe at some point, interest rates will trend down as well, but also our take rate is probably higher than we would see it being in a kind of normalized scenario. So all 3 of those are very high, driving price very high.

我們預期這些事情會一起發生。因此，當您看到 UMI 趨勢下降時，也許在某個時候，利率也會呈下降趨勢，但我們的接受率可能高於我們在某種正常化情境下所看到的。因此，這三個因素都很高，導致價格上漲。

And for sure, the reason -- I mean, the counter to that is that the market for the loan demand is very strong. And for that reason, that's why you're seeing very low CAC. And so that's kind of the place where we are today. Prices for credit are super high. Demand remains super high, and that sort of nets out to where we are right now.

當然，原因是——我的意思是，與此相反的是，市場對貸款的需求非常強勁。出於這個原因，這就是您看到 CAC 非常低的原因。這就是我們今天所處的境地。信貸價格極高。需求仍然很高，這就是我們現在的狀態。

We will take our next question from Reggie Smith with JPMorgan.

下一個問題我們將由摩根大通的雷吉史密斯 (Reggie Smith) 來回答。

I guess kind of a follow-up to the last question. It sounds like obviously, pricing is up right now. How do you guys think about managing adverse selection? Maybe talk a little bit about some of the sensitivity people may exhibit to price. I see that your approval or conversion rate is down. And I know there's 2 components to that. I would imagine approvals are down, but maybe you could talk a little bit about the acceptance of these offers as well to kind of give us some color there. And I have a follow-up.

我想這算是對上一個問題的後續回答。聽起來很明顯，現在價格上漲了。你們如何看待管理逆向選擇？也許可以稍微談論一下人們對價格表現出的一些敏感度。我發現您的批准率或轉換率下降了。我知道這有兩個部分。我想批准的數量肯定會下降，但也許您也可以談談這些提議的接受情況，以便讓我們了解一些情況。我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. Reggie, sure. So let's see. A little bit about adverse selection. Adverse selection tends to be an impact that is greater where the market or the segment is more competitive. So when there's a lot of sort of competing alternatives and you try to raise your rates, you'll typically suffer from adverse selection. And of course, the -- when segments are less competed, adverse selection is less of an effect.

是的。雷吉，當然了。讓我們看看。稍微談論一下逆向選擇。當市場或細分市場競爭越激烈時，逆向選擇的影響就越大。因此，當存在多種競爭選擇並且您試圖提高費率時，您通常會遭受反向選擇。當然，當細分市場的競爭不那麼激烈時，逆向選擇的影響就會較小。

In our case, for a lot of the segments where we tend to [learn] a lot of volume, even with higher rates, we tend to still have the best rates available. So even with higher take rates and higher loss assumptions, we, in many instances, are still significantly below what you might think of as the market clearing rate out there based on the credit scores. And so in that instance, there's not a lot of discernible adverse selection. And if we were to try and raise our take rate significantly in very highly competed segments, very prime borrowers, then it's something that we would be thinking about a lot more.

在我們的案例中，對於許多我們傾向於[了解]大量交易的細分市場，即使利率更高，我們仍然傾向於提供最優惠的利率。因此，即使有更高的接受率和更高的損失假設，在許多情況下，我們仍然遠低於您根據信用評分所認為的市場清算率。因此在這種情況下，不存在太多明顯的逆向選擇。如果我們嘗試在競爭非常激烈的領域、非常優質的借款人中大幅提高我們的接受率，那麼我們就會更考慮這一點。

Understood.

明白了。

And your second question, Reggie, was about acceptance rates?

雷吉，你的第二個問題是關於錄取率嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Yes. I mean it's very simple. It's a pretty classic sort of supply-and-demand construct, where we raise our rates. And not only do our approval rates go down because of the 36% APR cut off, but for those who remain approved, they'll be less likely to take a loan.

是的。我的意思是它非常簡單。這是一個非常典型的供需結構，我們提高利率。而且由於 36% 的 APR 下限，我們的批准率不僅會下降，而且對於那些仍然獲得批准的人來說，他們獲得貸款的可能性也會更小。

And typically, and at least what we've observed in our data, is that people who don't take loans with us don't necessarily take them from a competing source. The majority of them just don't take the loan. So it causes people's demand to reduce.

通常情況下，至少我們在數據中觀察到的情況是，不向我們貸款的人不一定會向競爭對手貸款。他們中的大多數人根本不接受貸款。所以就導致人們的需求減少。

Sure. Got it. And 1 quick follow-up on the co-investment, and I appreciate the disclosure. How should we think about that book? Are these loans subordinated to the rest of the structure? Is there a certain ratio that you must hold relative to what you run through these -- through the committed facility? Any color you could share there would be helpful for kind of modeling and thinking about that.

當然。知道了。並對共同投資進行了快速跟進，我很感謝這項披露。我們該如何看待那本書？這些貸款是否從屬於該結構的其餘部分？相對於您透過已承諾的設施所運作的內容，您是否必須保持一定的比例？您分享的任何顏色都會對建模和思考有所幫助。

Sure. Yes. I mean they do tend to sit in the equity part of the stack, if you will, where -- on a loan tranche where you [ask for] senior money and maybe mezzanine money in sort of equity or residual money, this tends to be sort of at the equity side of the stack. There's no -- there's not necessarily any sort of specific ratios. I think each time there is an investment made by 1 of our committed capital partners, we tend to have a co-investment that varies depending on the relationship.

當然。是的。我的意思是，如果你願意的話，它們確實傾向於位於堆疊的股權部分，在貸款部分中，你[要求]優先資金，也許還有股權或剩餘資金的夾層資金，這往往位於堆疊的股權一側。沒有－不一定有任何特定的比例。我認為，每當我們的一位忠誠的資本合夥人進行投資時，我們往往會進行根據關係而變化的共同投資。

Got it. So I guess there's no way to kind of think about or know how large that could be? Like do you have expectations over the next few quarters, like how big that could be?

知道了。所以我想沒有辦法去思考或知道這個數字到底有多大？例如，您對未來幾季有什麼預期，預期會有多大？

None that we're talking about explicitly, but I guess I would say, look, we consider this to be a part of the overall sort of risk budget of the business, and we've talked about sort of making sure we stay at or under a level of about $1 billion in asset risk. And this is part of that envelope.

我們沒有明確談論這個，但我想我會說，看，我們認為這是業務整體風險預算的一部分，我們已經討論過確保我們的資產風險保持在 10 億美元或以下。這是信封的一部分。

So I would anticipate over time, more of our capital sort of falling into this category, maybe less under direct loan assets, where we can sort of use our capital to unlock broader pools of capital and co-invest, as opposed to having loans directly on the balance sheet.

因此，我預計隨著時間的推移，我們的更多資本將落入這一類別，直接貸款資產的份額可能會減少，我們可以利用我們的資本來解鎖更廣泛的資本池並共同投資，而不是直接在資產負債表上貸款。

But I think what we're going to try to do with you guys is have a conversation about the overall sort of risk position and risk budget of the company, and we'll certainly have some views on how big we would ever want that to get.

但我認為，我們要與你們一起討論公司的整體風險狀況和風險預算，我們肯定會對我們希望這些風險和預算達到多大程度有一些看法。

We will take our next question from Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

我們將回答 Compass Point 的 Giuliano Bologna 提出的下一個問題。

One thing I'm curious about is you obviously put in that new risk-sharing disclosure. What I was curious about, and I realize this period is probably somewhat different because you did a loan sale and you had some of the forward funding agreements funding in the quarter, I'm curious if you can provide a rough sense of how much principal that -- that risk, $40 million or so of up-down risk-sharing covers.

令我好奇的一件事是，你顯然加入了新的風險分擔揭露。我很好奇的是，我意識到這個時期可能有所不同，因為你進行了貸款銷售，並且在本季度獲得了一些遠期融資協議融資，我很好奇你是否可以大致了解一下這個風險的本金是多少——大約 4,000 萬美元的上下風險分擔覆蓋了多少。

Giuliano, yes, on the order of $800 million.

是的，朱利亞諾 (Giuliano)，金額約為 8 億美元。

That sounds good. Very helpful. Then the next thing I'd be curious about is just thinking about from a funding perspective. You obviously built up the balance sheet and then disclosed some during 3Q with the ABS deal. I'd be curious if you have a rough sense of how much balance sheet -- so how much the volume was that flowed through the balance sheet during the second quarter was.

聽起來很好。非常有幫助。那麼我好奇的下一件事是從資金的角度來思考。您顯然建立了資產負債表，然後在第三季透過 ABS 交易揭露了一些資訊。我很好奇，您是否大致了解第二季資產負債表中的流動量是多少。

Yes. I don't think we have that explicitly broken out, but I think that's something that you could probably deduce from the cash flow statement. We can point you in the right direction when we chat later.

是的。我認為我們沒有明確列出這一點，但我認為您可以從現金流量表中推斷出這一點。我們稍後聊天時可以為您指明正確的方向。

Right. Sounds good. It'll probably also come out in the Q when that comes out as well. And the only question, I think, which is a little bit of a follow-up. Obviously, on the forward funding agreement side, you had mentioned in the past, roughly $500 million per quarter. You mentioned an additional -- some additional partners. I'd be curious if that number changes. And obviously, that will impact kind of where the risk sharing goes, because you won't have -- may not have large loan sales going forward. I'd be curious just to get your perspective on that.

正確的。聽起來不錯。當 Q 發佈時，它可能也會在 Q 中出現。我認為，唯一的問題是，這有點像後續問題。顯然，在遠期融資協議方面，您過去曾提到過，每季約 5 億美元。您提到了一些額外的合作夥伴。我很好奇這個數字是否會改變。顯然，這將對風險分擔產生影響，因為你將來可能不會有大規模的貸款銷售。我很好奇想知道您對此的看法。

Sure. So you're asking if the amount of committed funding per quarter expectation has grown?

當然。所以您問的是預計每季的承諾資金量是否增加？

Yes, if that has changed. Last quarter, what was mentioned was roughly $500 million per quarter. I'm curious if that has changed with the new funding agreements and based on the current arrangements in place.

是的，如果情況有變化的話。上個季度，提到的金額大約是每季 5 億美元。我很好奇，隨著新的融資協議和現行安排的出台，這種情況是否會改變。

I would say not in a meaningful enough way to sort of reannounce it, if you will. As Dave mentioned, we did -- we are working with a new partner in the committed capital world, and they're now contributing to our funding. But some of our constraints now are on the borrower side. And so I think given that, we're probably in a similar ballpark.

如果你願意的話，我想說這還不足以讓你重新宣布這一點。正如戴夫所提到的，我們確實正在與承諾資本領域的新合作夥伴合作，他們現在正在為我們的資金做出貢獻。但我們現在的一些限制是在藉款人方面。因此我認為，鑑於此，我們的情況可能大致相同。

That's very helpful. I appreciate the answers to the questions, and I will jump back in the queue.

這非常有幫助。我非常感謝這些問題的答案，我將重新回到隊列中。

We will take our next question from David Scharf with JMP Securities.

下一個問題由 JMP Securities 的 David Scharf 提出。

A lot have been asked, I guess these are kind of extensions of what's already been offered up. But Sanjay, just back to, I guess, the funding side and how it impacts kind of how you're thinking about originations. I know you've reiterated sort of the comfort level of that $1 billion ceiling on retained assets. But is there any sort of targeted road map? And then I -- for year-end, where you'd like to get the balance sheet contracted to?

已經有很多人問過了，我想這些是已經提供的內容的延伸。但是桑傑，我想回到資金方面，以及它如何影響你對發起的看法。我知道您已經重申了保留資產 10 億美元的上限的舒適度。但是否有任何針對性的路線圖？然後我 - 到年底，您希望將資產負債表收縮到什麼程度？

I mean, should we be thinking about all these new funding partners as vehicles for stepped-up asset sales in the second half? Just trying to get a sense how we ought to think about the on-balance sheet exposure going out 6 months, and ultimately, how much room you have to reaccelerate volumes when the macro environment dictates it.

我的意思是，我們是否應該將所有這些新的融資合作夥伴視為下半年加大資產銷售的工具？只是想了解我們應該如何看待未來 6 個月的資產負債表風險敞口，以及最終當宏觀環境要求時，你有多少空間來重新加速交易量。

David, sure. Let's see. I mean, a lot of it is dependent on the environment, of course. I mean, in an ideal world, what we'd love to do is reduce the balance sheet significantly, apply it to R&D and begin to maybe apply more of it very surgically to these committed capital-type co-investments where we can unlock much larger pools of third-party capital. That's the ideal.

大衛，當然了。讓我們來看看。我的意思是，當然，很大程度上取決於環境。我的意思是，在理想世界中，我們想要做的是大幅減少資產負債表，將其應用於研發，並開始將更多的資金非常精準地應用於這些承諾的資本型共同投資，這樣我們就可以解鎖更大的第三方資本池。這才是理想。

Now, we're in an environment where borrower demand is high, funding markets are tight and frankly, the collateral has a lot of excess value. I think that they're priced for very high yields, and we can provide a lot of value to the business with 1 extra dollar origination from the perspective that we obviously unlock a lot of take rate. And then similarly, I think these loans are priced for good yield.

現在，我們處於借款人需求旺盛、融資市場緊張的環境，坦白說，抵押品具有很大的超額價值。我認為它們的定價是為了獲得非常高的收益，而且從我們顯然解鎖大量利率的角度來看，我們可以透過額外 1 美元的發起為企業提供很多價值。同樣地，我認為這些貸款的定價是為了獲得良好的收益。

So it's a rational economic decision in the current environment. We'd love a normalized environment, where there was plenty of third-party capital to satisfy the borrower demand and we weren't in a position of using ours. But that will require essentially a normalization of the UMI and a normalization of the funding markets.

因此，這是當前環境下的理性經濟決策。我們希望看到一個正常化的環境，有充足的第三方資本來滿足借款人的需求，而我們則無需動用自己的資本。但這實際上需要 UMI 和融資市場的正常化。

Got it. Got it.

知道了。知道了。

It's hard to say whether that will happen by the end of the year or not.

很難說這是否會在年底前實現。

Yes, understood. And maybe a follow-up. Regarding the negative fair value marks again this quarter, were the downward revisions -- are they mostly related to kind of discount rate, prevailing rates? Is it more credit performance-related? Or is it just based on -- with so many underperforming loans for sale out there, just kind of prevailing market data points you're seeing?

是的，明白了。或許還有後續行動。關於本季的負公允價值記錄，是否有向下修正－它們是否主要與折現率、現行利率有關？它是否與信用表現更相關？或者只是基於——市場上有如此多表現不佳的貸款待售，您所看到的只是一種普遍的市場數據點？

And kind of related to that, is it sort of evenly distributed, those fair value decreases to personal loans in auto? Or is it more concentrated in auto?

與此相關的是，這些汽車個人貸款的公允價值減少是否平均分佈？還是更集中在汽車領域？

Sure. Yes. So in Q2, I'd say there's 2 things of about equal magnitude. One was on the unrealized fair value side, where some of our assets, notably, some of the co-investments we made in some of these deals, they were -- they had applied to them a much cheaper discount rate than we were anticipating by the third-party valuators. So that was sort of an unrealized value reduction.

當然。是的。所以在第二季度，我認為有兩件事的重要性大致相同。一個是未實現的公允價值方面，我們的一些資產，特別是我們在某些​​交易中進行的一些共同投資，它們應用的折現率比第三方估價師預期的要便宜得多。所以這是一種未實現的價值減少。

And the other was what I mentioned earlier, which is -- well, I mean our R&D portfolio, which is predominantly auto, they are getting to a level of charge-offs now that are bringing down the NII line.

另一個是我之前提到的，也就是——嗯，我的意思是我們的研發組合，主要是汽車，現在它們的沖銷水平正在降低 NII 線。

I think if you're thinking about Q3 and forward, it's predominantly the latter. It's old loans in the auto segment that were originated in a very different environment with a model that was still undergoing calibration.

我認為，如果您考慮第三季及以後的情況，那麼主要是後者。這是汽車行業的舊貸款，其發放環境非常不同，其模型仍在校準中。

And so now that I think we've learned a lot in our calibration of the auto product and in terms of the scale and timing of that R&D effort, I think there's some great learnings we've had and how we will apply it differently to the next set of products that we're going to calibrate. But the auto book that we have, that's really at the root of a lot of charge-offs that are coming through the P&L now.

所以現在我認為我們在汽車產品的校準方面已經學到了很多東西，就研發工作的規模和時間而言，我認為我們已經獲得了一些很好的經驗，並且知道如何以不同的方式將其應用到我們要校準的下一組產品中。但是，我們擁有的汽車帳簿實際上是目前損益表中大量沖銷的根源。

We will take our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們將由史蒂芬斯的文森特凱恩蒂克 (Vincent Caintic) 來回答下一個問題。

First question, just kind of a big picture question about your funding partners. When we last spoke about the Castlelake $2 billion, I think that was a proof of concept. So just wondering if you could talk about kind of the conversations, the appetite you've been having from potential partners and kind of the mix between institutional investors versus the banks and other guys. Presumably, this co-invest -- this capital co-investment side is very helpful. And seeing that the assessed value is higher than the initial capital invested, so presumably, that implies that the performance is better than kind of the initial agreement. So just sort of wondering if you could talk about the appetite and on your discussions with your partners.

第一個問題，是關於您的融資夥伴的一個總體問題。當我們上次談到Castlelake 20億美元項目時，我認為那是一個概念證明。所以我只是想問你們是否可以談談您們的談話內容、潛在合作夥伴的興趣以及機構投資者、銀行和其他投資者之間的組合。據推測，這種共同投資——這種資本共同投資方面非常有幫助。並且看到評估價值高於最初投入的資本，因此可以推測這意味著業績要比最初的協議更好。我只是想知道您是否可以談談胃口以及您與合作夥伴的討論。

Sure. Yes. So a couple of questions in there. This is Sanjay. I'll sort of talk through them. The first question really is about the nature of the discussions around these sort of -- some of these capital-type deals. We've done a couple of deals now. And they are obviously different flavor, but they all sort of get to the same thing, which is it's a counterparty that has the wherewithal to spend through a cycle and for some committed period of time. And in exchange, we think there's some pretty attractive return profiles for them. And as we've shown, we're willing to put our skin in the game alongside.

當然。是的。這裡有幾個問題。這是桑傑。我將透過這些內容來討論一下。第一個問題實際上是關於圍繞這類資本交易的討論的性質。我們現在已經完成幾筆交易。它們顯然有不同的風格，但它們的目的都是一樣的，即交易對手有足夠的資金在一個週期和一段承諾的時間內進行支出。作為交換，我們認為他們會獲得相當有吸引力的回報。正如我們所表明的，我們願意為此付出努力。

And I think that is, on the 1 hand, a very attractive conversation right now. And I think there's a lot of people who are engaging. On the other hand, as I said, it's a market with a lot of distraction in it right now. And so these conversations are making progress, but I think they are -- there's a lot of company. And any investor who's selective right now has a lot of interesting options available. Some are ad hoc and one-off. Others are more programmatic, like the ones we're talking about with them. And so I think that it's proving to be an interesting and attractive option, but in a crowded field right now.

一方面，我認為這是目前非常有吸引力的談話。我認為有很多人參與其中。另一方面，正如我所說，目前的市場存在著許多令人分心的事情。因此，這些對話正在取得進展，但我認為——有很多人參與。現在，任何有選擇性的投資者都有很多有趣的選擇。有些是臨時的和一次性的。其他人則更加程序化，就像我們正在與他們討論的那樣。因此我認為事實證明這是一個有趣且有吸引力的選擇，但目前這個領域已經擁擠不堪。

The split between institutional money and bank money, I would say, as we said in our remarks, some of our take rates benefited this quarter because there was a further shift towards institutional money. It's no secret that banks have challenges right now with liquidity. A lot of them, as we said, are looking to harvest cash. And so that was sort of a mix shift that happened in Q2. It wouldn't surprise me if that trend held or continued in Q3.

我想說，正如我們在評論中所說的那樣，機構資金和銀行資金之間的分歧導致本季度我們的部分利率受益，因為進一步向機構資金轉變。銀行目前面臨流動性方面的挑戰，這已經不是什麼秘密了。正如我們所說，他們中的許多人都希望獲得現金。這就是第二季發生的一種混合轉變。如果這一趨勢在第三季度保持或繼續，我不會感到驚訝。

As for the -- sort of the committed capital that we outlined in our investors' slide and how to think about it, I guess, first of all, we're saying that the -- a large part of that initial investment of capital on our part wasn't just new originations. As you recall, there was a back book transaction. That was a part of the Castlelake deal that you mentioned. And so there was sort of a onetime sort of retention of basis in that deal. That's part of the $40 million.

至於我們在投資者幻燈片中概述的承諾資本以及如何考慮它，我想，首先，我們要說的是，我們最初的資本投資很大一部分不僅僅是新發起的。正如您記得的那樣，有一筆後台交易。這是您提到的 Castlelake 交易的一部分。因此，該交易中存在一種一次性的基礎保留。這是4000萬美元的一部分。

I would say most of the new originations that we produced under the guise of these committed capital deals in Q2 are sort of on track and at par, if you will. The majority of the upside that we have between the $40 million that we invested and the $50 million that we're sort of assessing or forecasting, it has to do with how the back book itself was priced and how it was expected to perform. And it is, in fact, beating those expectations. So it's less, I would say, a reflection of new origination, more a reflection of the back book, which is a pretty sizable portion of that $40 million.

我想說的是，我們在第二季以這些承諾資本交易為幌子發起的大多數新交易都進展順利，並且達到了平價水平。我們投資的 4,000 萬美元和我們正在評估或預測的 5,000 萬美元之間的大部分上漲空間，都與後期帳簿本身的定價方式以及預期表現有關。而事實上，它確實超出了這些預期。因此，我想說，這不僅反映了新業務的發起，還反映了後期賬簿，而後期賬簿佔了 4,000 萬美元中相當大的一部分。

I guess the other implication is, as you think about how that might grow in the future, it certainly won't grow at a clip of $40 million a quarter based on the agreements we have in place.

我想另一個含義是，當你考慮未來它將如何成長時，根據我們現有的協議，它肯定不會以每季 4000 萬美元的速度成長。

Okay. That's super helpful. Quick follow-up. So the take rates, presumably from the mix shift in funding, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that the take rate holds or even gets better going forward? Just want to confirm that.

好的。這非常有幫助。快速跟進。因此，從融資組合的變化來看，接受率將會維持不變甚至在未來變得更好，這並非不合理？只是想確認一下。

I guess, in aggregate, you can see that we've sort of guided to a relatively flat contribution margin next quarter, maybe marginally lower. And so I think you could probably infer from that, that our take rates, we're assuming that they're going to be roughly stable to this quarter. In the medium to longer term, as Dave said, we would expect, with a normalizing economy, for our take rates to slowly subside.

我想，從總體上看，你可以看到我們已經預見到下個季度的貢獻利潤率會相對持平，甚至可能略低。因此，我想您可以從中推斷出，我們假設我們的接受率到本季將大致保持穩定。從中長期來看，正如戴夫所說，隨著經濟正常化，我們預計我們的收費率將緩慢下降。

Okay. That's very helpful.

好的。這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And we have time for 1 more question, and we will go to Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

我們還有時間再回答一個問題，我們將請 Atlantic Equities 的 Simon Clinch 來回答。

I was actually wondering, maybe, Dave, if you could talk a bit more about the parallel time and curve calibration. Because I guess, I'm not the most tech-savvy person, and it sounded an awful lot like back testing to me, but you say it isn't. So I'd be really interested, so how it differs or why isn't it back testing? And why you -- I guess, what this really means in terms of your ability to capture the next wave of -- well, actually manage through the next cycle that we see in a much better fashion than you have done in the last couple of years.

我實際上想知道，戴夫，你是否可以多談談並行時間和曲線校準。因為我想，我不是最精通技術的人，而且對我來說這聽起來很像回溯測試，但你說它不是。所以我真的很感興趣，那麼它有何不同或為什麼不進行回測？而為什麼你——我想，這實際上意味著你有能力捕捉下一波浪潮——實際上，我們可以比過去幾年更好地管理下一個週期。

Yes. Sure, Simon. I mean, it ultimately comes down to being able to calibrate a model as quickly as possible, which really just leaps you into developing the next model. And so at the heart of it, it's about model development speed. But the way it generally works is -- a back test is when you -- you apply a new model to a bunch of old loans and see if it can accurately predict their outcome. I mean, that's sort of the way that models are developed in the first place, is something like a very large back test. It's essentially what AI training is.

是的。當然，西蒙。我的意思是，它最終歸結為能夠盡快校準模型，這實際上會讓您開始開發下一個模型。所以，其核心在於模型開發速度。但它通常的工作方式是——回測是將一個新模型應用於一堆舊貸款，看看它是否能準確預測其結果。我的意思是，這有點像是最初開發模型的方式，有點像是非常大的回溯測試。這本質上就是人工智慧訓練。

But in this case, what we're actually doing is not predicting the past, but predicting the future for loans that a different model had originated. And so what that really means, as I said earlier, normally, if you have 36-month loans, if you want to get accuracy, see the performance of the model to the entire timing curve, you need to wait 36 months, of course. But if you have a diverse set of loans that were originated in all sorts of times in the past several years, even in the first month, you're getting observations into all 36 months of the timing curve. And that's because you have re-underwritten model -- loans that were originally done under a different model. But you're not predicting the past, you're predicting what they'll do in the next month and the month after that.

但在這種情況下，我們實際上做的不是預測過去，而是預測透過不同模型發放的貸款的未來。那麼這實際上意味著什麼呢，正如我之前所說的，通常情況下，如果您有 36 個月的貸款，如果您想獲得準確性，查看模型對整個時間曲線的表現，您當然需要等待 36 個月。但是，如果您擁有過去幾年中各個時間點發放的多樣化貸款，即使是第一個月的貸款，您都可以獲得所有 36 個月的時間曲線的觀察結果。這是因為您重新承保了原本按照不同模式進行的貸款。但你不是在預測過去，而是在預測他們下個月和下個月會做什麼。

So that's what's really unique about it. It is a true model. It is predicting future performance of loans, but it's predicting the future of loans that it didn't originally -- was not originally used to originate. And that's kind of the magic of it, is it just gives you a lot more data about the performance of your loans, specifically about the timing curve than you could get -- which would normally, again, take much longer time.

這就是它真正獨特之處。這是一個真正的模型。它預測貸款的未來表現，但它預測的是最初沒有用於發放的貸款的未來表現。這就是它的神奇之處，它能為你提供更多關於貸款表現的數據，特別是有關時間曲線的數據，而這通常需要更長的時間。

And that's the heart of it. It's a very novel notion. It helps you have a very clear understanding of how your model is performing very, very quickly. And that all goes towards speed.

這就是事情的核心。這是一個非常新穎的想法。它可以幫助您非常快速地清晰了解模型的運作。這一切都是為了速度。

Okay. Great. I might have go back to school on that one.

好的。偉大的。我可能得回去上學了。

We might try to write something up on this to get -- for the -- for the nerds who really want to dig deep into how this -- something like this works. We'll probably try to put something out there.

我們可能會嘗試寫一些關於這方面的內容，以便讓那些真正想深入研究這類事物如何運作的書呆子們能夠了解。我們可能會嘗試在那裡放一些東西。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will turn the conference back to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我將把會議交還給 Dave Girouard，請他發表任何補充意見或結論。

All righty. Thanks to everybody for joining us today. I'm confident that financial services and lending in particular will be one of the bright shining stars for AI in the coming years and in the coming decades. And we believe there's no company better positioned to lead that transformation than Upstart. So thanks for joining us today. We'll see you next time.

好的。感謝大家今天的參加。我相信，金融服務，尤其是貸款服務，將成為未來幾年乃至幾十年人工智慧領域最耀眼的明星之一。我們相信，沒有任何一家公司比 Upstart 更有能力引領這項轉變。感謝您今天加入我們。我們下次再見。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。