Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Upstart 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jason Schmidt。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's second quarter 2023 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2023 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.upstart.com.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 2023 年第二季度的財務業績。參加今天電話會議的有 Upstart 首席執行官 Dave Girouard；以及我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Datta。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布其 2023 年第二季度財務業績，並發布了投資者關係演示文稿。兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter of 2023 relating to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們業務相關的 2023 年第三季度指引以及我們未來擴展平台的計劃。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期和截至目前可獲得的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

由於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異。因此，我們提醒您不要過度依賴這些前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled against our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. To ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible during the call, we request that you please limit yourself to 1 initial question and 1 follow-up.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則我們的業績參考均以非公認會計準則財務指標的形式提供，並與我們的公認會計準則業績進行了核對，這些結果可以在收益發布和補充表中找到。為了確保我們能夠在電話會議期間解決盡可能多的分析師問題，我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個初始問題和 1 個後續問題。

Later this quarter, upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Plus Technology Conference, September 7; and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontier's Conference, September 12. Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

本季度晚些時候，新貴將參加 9 月 7 日舉行的高盛 Communacopia Plus 技術會議；以及 Piper Sandler Growth Frontier 會議，9 月 12 日。現在我想把它交給 Upstart 首席執行官 Dave Girouard。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our second quarter 2023 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的財報電話會議，介紹我們 2023 年第二季度的業績。我是戴夫·吉魯亞德 (Dave Girouard)，Upstart 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官。

I told you last quarter that I was hopeful Q1 was a transitional one for Upstart, and I continue to believe that's the case. I'm pleased we delivered quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 for the first time in more than a year. And more importantly, we achieved record high contribution margin and positive cash flow, a result of our efforts over the past year to improve efficiency and operating leverage in our business. This is despite an environment where banks continue to be super cautious about lending. Interest rates are as high as they've been in decades, and capital markets remain challenged. A close look at our financials in Q2 suggest that Upstart has the opportunity to grow quickly and profitably when we return to a normalized economy.

我上個季度告訴過你，我希望第一季度是 Upstart 的過渡期，我仍然相信情況確實如此。我很高興我們在第二季度實現了一年多以來的首次季度環比增長。更重要的是，我們實現了創紀錄的高貢獻率和正現金流，這是我們過去一年努力提高業務效率和運營槓桿的結果。儘管銀行對貸款仍然非常謹慎，但情況仍然如此。利率達到幾十年來的最高水平，資本市場仍然面臨挑戰。仔細觀察我們第二季度的財務狀況表明，當我們恢復正常經濟時，Upstart 有機會快速增長並實現盈利。

I'm also pleased to see clear signs that inflation is ebbing. Despite a continued strong labor market, our lens on inflation is different from that of others. From our point of view, wage growth in excess of goods inflation is a new and positive development, particularly for the less affluent segments of the U.S. that we tend to serve.

我也很高興看到通脹正在消退的明顯跡象。儘管勞動力市場持續強勁，但我們對通脹的看法與其他人不同。從我們的角度來看，工資增長超過商品通脹是一個新的積極發展，特別是對於我們傾向於服務的美國不太富裕的群體而言。

The market is increasingly optimistic that the Fed can achieve their 2% inflation target without a serious recession. While the recession remains a possibility, our view is it's likely to be a shallow, white collar recession, one less likely to result in significant unemployment for less affluent Americans. And unlike 18 months ago, the Fed now has readily available tools to handle a significant slowing of the economy. They can lower rates to spur growth once again.

市場對美聯儲能夠在不出現嚴重衰退的情況下實現2%的通脹目標越來越樂觀。儘管經濟衰退仍有可能發生，但我們的觀點是，這可能是一場淺層的白領衰退，不太可能導致不太富裕的美國人出現大量失業。與 18 個月前不同的是，美聯儲現在擁有現成的工具來應對經濟大幅放緩。他們可以降低利率以再次刺激增長。

We continue to be confident that our core personal loan risk models are properly calibrated and have been so since November of 2022. Thus, we expect these recent vintages to deliver at or above target returns. Funding markets remain cautious and risk-averse. Banks and credit unions are generally focused on deposits and liquidity, while capital markets are beginning to show signs of normalization. We added another committed capital partner in July, and are in conversations with several more interested parties. We also completed a securitization after the close of Q2, with significantly tighter spreads than our prior deal earlier in the year.

我們仍然相信，我們的核心個人貸款風險模型得到了適當的校準，並且自 2022 年 11 月以來一直如此。因此，我們預計最近的這些年份將實現或高於目標回報。融資市場仍保持謹慎和規避風險。銀行和信用合作社普遍關注存款和流動性，而資本市場開始出現正常化的跡象。我們於 7 月增加了另一位忠誠的資本合作夥伴，並正在與更多感興趣的各方進行對話。我們還在第二季度結束後完成了一項證券化，其利差比我們今年早些時候的先前交易要小得多。

Meanwhile, we continue to manage Upstart cautiously but optimistically in a funding-constrained environment. Every week, I remind the Upstart team to focus maniacally on improving every aspect of our business, strengthening our company for a time when the markets will inevitably return to center.

與此同時，在資金緊張的環境下，我們繼續謹慎但樂觀地管理Upstart。每週，我都會提醒 Upstart 團隊瘋狂地專注於改善我們業務的各個方面，在市場不可避免地回歸中心的時期加強我們的公司。

As I said to you last quarter, I focused our team's energy on improving Upstart in 4 key dimensions: first, best rates for all. The core thesis of Upstart is that superior AI-enabled risk models will improve access to credit for all. And the company that can build superior risk models faster than anyone else stands to benefit from this dramatic transformation of the lending industry.

正如我上個季度對您所說的那樣，我將團隊的精力集中在四個關鍵方面改進 Upstart：首先，為所有人提供最優惠的價格。 Upstart 的核心論點是，卓越的人工智能風險模型將改善所有人獲得信貸的機會。能夠比其他任何人更快地建立卓越風險模型的公司將受益於貸款行業的這一巨大變革。

In this light, I want to share an exciting breakthrough, something we call parallel timing curve calibration. This is a technique aimed at accelerating the pace of model calibration, and thus, model development. The challenge with launching a new model in lending is that you have to wait many months to see how it performs in the real world. If you're originating 3-year loans, then you need to originate some loans and then watch them perform for 36 months to have clear feedback on model calibration across the timing curve.

有鑑於此，我想分享一個令人興奮的突破，我們稱之為並行時序曲線校準。這項技術旨在加快模型校準的速度，從而加快模型開發的速度。推出新貸款模式的挑戰在於，您必須等待數月才能看到它在現實世界中的表現。如果您發放 3 年期貸款，那麼您需要發放一些貸款，然後觀察它們 36 個月的表現，以便在整個時間曲線上獲得關於模型校準的清晰反饋。

But with parallel timing curve calibration, the new model can be used to reunderwrite all in-process loans from the past, generating new predictions for how they will perform in their remaining months. This is not a back test. The new model is used to predict how all outstanding loans in the platform will perform in coming months, not how they performed to date.

但通過並行時間曲線校準，新模型可用於重新承保過去所有正在處理的貸款，從而對其在剩餘幾個月內的表現產生新的預測。這不是回溯測試。新模型用於預測平台中所有未償貸款在未來幾個月的表現，而不是迄今為止的表現。

In this way, within a few months, you can have a clear signal as to calibration across all months in the timing curve. This results in a dramatically faster calibration process for new models. From the point of view of our lending partners and credit investors, this is a giant win, because it means we provide a tighter and faster feedback loop regarding model performance. We're very excited about its potential to extend our leadership in AI lending and are in the process of patenting this technique.

這樣，在幾個月內，您就可以在時序曲線中的所有月份中獲得清晰的校准信號。這使得新模型的校準過程顯著加快。從我們的貸款合作夥伴和信貸投資者的角度來看，這是一個巨大的勝利，因為這意味著我們提供了一個關於模型性能的更緊密、更快的反饋循環。我們對其擴大我們在人工智能貸款領域領導地位的潛力感到非常興奮，並且正在為這項技術申請專利。

Next, more efficient borrowing and lending. Last quarter, we reached an all-time high of 88% of unsecured loans fully automated. That means instant and automated approval with no waiting, no documents to upload and no phone calls. This matters a lot because even the most accurate loan pricing model is useless if applying for a loan is too time consuming or laborious. The notion of building an entirely software-driven credit origination process, one that can run 24/7 in a fully lights-out environment, has been with me since Upstart's founding and was inspired by my years at Google.

其次，更高效的借貸。上季度，我們的無擔保貸款實現了完全自動化，達到歷史最高水平 88%。這意味著即時自動批准，無需等待，無需上傳文件，也無需電話。這很重要，因為如果申請貸款過於耗時或費力，即使是最準確的貸款定價模型也是無用的。自 Upstart 成立以來，我一直怀揣著構建一個完全由軟件驅動的信貸發放流程（可以在完全無人值守的環境中 24/7 運行）的想法，並且受到我在 Google 工作多年的啟發。

Please bear with me as I share a short story. In 2003, I was interviewing for a role at Google. The company was still private at the time. So the world knew little about the financial giants that was growing in Mountain View. At one point in the process, the external recruiter said that I couldn't interview that week at Google because the entire company was skiing at Lake Tahoe. I thought to myself, that's a great company. Then she said, but get this, the company is still making $7 million or $8 million a day in revenue. I thought to myself, no, that's an amazing company. And the idea has stuck with me since.

請耐心聽我分享一個小故事。 2003 年，我正在面試 Google 的一個職位。當時該公司仍是私營企業。因此，世人對在山景城成長的金融巨頭知之甚少。在這個過程中的某個時刻，外部招聘人員說我那周無法在谷歌面試，因為整個公司都在太浩湖滑雪。我心想，那是一家很棒的公司。然後她說，但是明白了，公司每天的收入仍然是 700 萬或 800 萬美元。我心想，不，那是一家了不起的公司。從那時起，這個想法就一直困擾著我。

So how have we done? In 2016, we began to pursue the goal of fully automated loans, zero human involvement from rate requests to transfer of funds, approved in a matter of seconds, lights out. By Q2 2017, 29% of our unsecured loans were fully automated. In Q2 2019, it was 64%. In Q2 2021, it was 69%. And in Q2 2023, this past quarter, it was 88%. Automation doesn't just allow us to scale originations faster than headcount. It creates a wow moment for consumers who have never experienced such a fast and effortless loan application process. Recently, we began to brand this Fast Track, something we should probably have done years ago. This breakthrough experience is a signature of Upstart and the lenders that we serve.

那麼我們做得怎麼樣呢？ 2016年，我們開始追求完全自動化貸款的目標，從利率請求到資金轉移，幾秒鐘內批准，熄燈，零人為參與。截至 2017 年第二季度，我們 29% 的無擔保貸款已實現完全自動化。 2019年第二季度，這一比例為64%。 2021 年第二季度，這一比例為 69%。 2023 年第二季度，即上個季度，這一比例為 88%。自動化不僅讓我們能夠比員工數量更快地擴大創新規模。它為從未經歷過如此快速、輕鬆的貸款申請流程的消費者創造了一個驚嘆時刻。最近，我們開始為這條快速通道打造品牌，這也許是我們幾年前就應該做的事情。這種突破性的體驗是 Upstart 和我們所服務的貸方的標誌。

Next, more resilient. In addition to ongoing initiatives to strengthen the funding side of our marketplace, we continue to optimize our fixed costs. This increases the leverage in our business so that Upstart can thrive across future economic cycles. In Q2, we identified another $7 million in annual technical infrastructure costs that we can eliminate, bringing our total annual cost savings and tech expenses to nearly $17 million. We continue to hire very modestly and only in strategic situations. We also achieved a contribution margin of 67%, our best ever by a long shot.

其次，更有彈性。除了持續採取措施加強我們市場的融資方面之外，我們還繼續優化我們的固定成本。這增加了我們業務的槓桿作用，使 Upstart 能夠在未來的經濟周期中蓬勃發展。在第二季度，我們確定了可以消除的另外 700 萬美元的年度技術基礎設施成本，使我們的年度成本節省和技術支出總額達到近 1700 萬美元。我們繼續非常謹慎地招聘員工，並且只在戰略情況下進行招聘。我們還實現了 67% 的貢獻率，這是我們有史以來最好的水平。

This is a sure sign that our focus on efficiency is bearing fruit. A principal driver of this record contribution margin was our efforts to build a stronger relationship with our existing customers. As a result of these efforts, 38% of our originations in Q2 came from repeat borrowers, also a record for us. And as a consequence of that, we also saw a record-low acquisition cost per loan in Q2.

這是一個明確的跡象，表明我們對效率的關注正在取得成果。這一創紀錄的貢獻率的主要推動力是我們努力與現有客戶建立更牢固的關係。由於這些努力，我們第二季度的貸款中有 38% 來自重複借款人，這也是我們的記錄。因此，我們在第二季度還看到每筆貸款的獲取成本創歷史新低。

Next, expanding our footprint. We continue to make progress in our newer products, and are excited to see the progress we'll make through the rest of 2023. In the second quarter, we made significant strides in our auto retail lending business. We expanded our footprint from 39 rooftops with Upstart lending implemented last quarter to 61 rooftops today. We also added 12 additional states we now support, covering more than 65% of the U.S. population. We launched new risk models for both our auto refinance and retail lending products, delivering as much accuracy improvement as we have seen in the last year from our personal loan models.

接下來，擴大我們的足跡。我們繼續在新產品方面取得進展，並很高興看到我們在 2023 年剩餘時間裡將取得的進展。第二季度，我們在汽車零售貸款業務方面取得了重大進展。我們的業務範圍從上季度實施 Upstart 貸款的 39 個屋頂擴大到今天的 61 個屋頂。我們還增加了目前支持的 12 個州，覆蓋了美國 65% 以上的人口。我們為汽車再融資和零售貸款產品推出了新的風險模型，與去年的個人貸款模型一樣，準確性得到了很大的提高。

We continue to improve our auto recovery performance, reducing delays in recovery cycle by 75%. On the feature side, we launched a new device-agnostic in-store application that expands access to desktops, laptops and tablet browsers. We also brought on our second and third lending partners for auto retail, no easy feat given the current market environment. We're also making rapid progress on our small dollar relief loans. These loans start at just a few hundred dollars and are currently offered only to Upstart applicants who don't qualify for our mainstream personal loans. For this reason, they're entirely incremental to both our approval rates and our model training set.

我們不斷改進自動恢復性能，將恢復週期的延遲減少了 75%。在功能方面，我們推出了一款新的與設備無關的店內應用程序，可擴展對台式機、筆記本電腦和平板電腦瀏覽器的訪問。我們還為汽車零售引入了第二和第三個貸款合作夥伴，考慮到當前的市場環境，這並非易事。我們的小額減免貸款也取得了快速進展。這些貸款起價僅為幾百美元，目前僅向不符合我們主流個人貸款資格的新貴申請人提供。因此，它們完全提高了我們的批准率和模型訓練集。

Our first vintages have now fully reached maturity, and our model is now fully calibrated, with observed losses in line with expectations for our most recent model version. In a first for Upstart, we began using cash flow data as part of the risk model for small dollar loans. This incremental data has led to increased approval rates and will eventually become available for all our loan products. Our fully automated rate in Q2 for small dollar loans was 90%, an incredible achievement that demonstrates the power and impact of AI and lending. In Q3, we'll move beyond offering this product exclusively to those declined for personal loans and will finally enable direct consumer applications.

我們的第一批年份現已完全成熟，我們的模型現已完全校準，觀察到的損失與我們最新模型版本的預期一致。對於 Upstart 來說，我們首先開始使用現金流數據作為小額貸款風險模型的一部分。這些增量數據提高了批准率，最終將適用於我們所有的貸款產品。我們第二季度小額貸款的全自動率為 90%，這是一項令人難以置信的成就，展示了人工智能和貸款的力量和影響。在第三季度，我們將不再只向個人貸款被拒絕的人提供此產品，並最終啟用直接消費者應用程序。

Last but not least, I'm happy to let you know that our home equity product is officially off the ground with a pilot program in the state of Colorado. We expect to fast follow with the state of Michigan and also hope to be in a handful of additional states by the end of Q3. This is the first Upstart product specifically designed for prime borrowers, where a superior process enabled by automation is a richer source of differentiation than loan pricing itself. As a reminder, I mentioned last quarter that we're targeting online approval in less than 10 minutes and a closing process of less than 5 days for an Upstart-powered HELOC against an industry average closing time of more than a month.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我很高興地告訴您，我們的房屋淨值產品已在科羅拉多州正式啟動試點計劃。我們預計將迅速跟進密歇根州，並希望在第三季度末之前進入其他幾個州。這是第一個專為優質借款人設計的 Upstart 產品，自動化實現的卓越流程比貸款定價本身更能提供差異化​​的優勢。提醒一下，我在上個季度提到過，對於由 Upstart 驅動的 HELOC，我們的目標是在 10 分鐘內完成在線審批，在 5 天以內完成結賬流程，而行業平均結賬時間需要一個多月。

To wrap up, we're not yet certain the economy is headed to a better place. So we continue to be cautious while investing for the long term. And you're now beginning to see the benefits of our disciplined approach. Regardless of the economy's direction in the coming months, I'm confident that we're building a better, stronger enterprise for the future. We are in the pole position to lead the industry to an AI-enabled future, one that represents a giant leap forward for both borrowers and lenders. And we do this not because of fascination with AI, but because of what brought us here, the potential to dramatically improve access to credit for tens or even hundreds of millions of Americans.

總而言之，我們還不確定經濟是否會走向更好的方向。因此，我們在長期投資時繼續保持謹慎。您現在開始看到我們嚴格的方法的好處。無論未來幾個月的經濟走向如何，我都相信我們正在為未來打造一個更好、更強大的企業。我們處於領先地位，能夠引領行業走向人工智能驅動的未來，這對借款人和貸款人來說都代表著巨大的飛躍。我們這樣做並不是因為對人工智能的著迷，而是因為我們來到這裡的原因，即有可能大幅改善數千萬甚至數億美國人獲得信貸的機會。

There are many dimensions along which you can weigh our efforts to make Upstart stronger: speed of model development; strength of unit economics; low fixed costs, demonstrable leverage in our business; improved funding supply and growing product diversity. But the dimension that gives me confidence more than any of these is talent density at both the executive and individual contributor level.

您可以從多個維度衡量我們為讓 Upstart 變得更強大所做的努力：模型開發的速度；單位經濟實力；固定成本低，我們的業務具有明顯的槓桿作用；改善資金供應並增加產品多樣性。但最讓我有信心的是高管和個人貢獻者層面的人才密度。

For those excited about AI and passionate about its potential to improve lives, we know of no better place than Upstart to build a career. And while we're hiring strategically and with extreme caution, our digital-first approach is enabling us to hire top talent across the country. More than 90% of job candidates have accepted our offers in recent months, an incredible success rate. While much of the world is debating how to return to the office full time, we're very happy with the results of our digital-first approach.

對於那些對人工智能感到興奮並對其改善生活的潛力充滿熱情的人來說，我們知道沒有比 Upstart 更好的地方來建立職業生涯了。雖然我們在戰略上極其謹慎地進行招聘，但我們的數字優先方法使我們能夠在全國范圍內招聘頂尖人才。近幾個月來，超過 90% 的求職者接受了我們的錄用通知，成功率令人難以置信。儘管世界上許多地方都在討論如何全職返回辦公室，但我們對數字優先方法的結果感到非常滿意。

I will close with a huge thank you to all Upstarters, as well as the family and the friends that support them. We're on an incredible mission together, and it wouldn't be possible without each of you. Thank you. And now I'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 2023 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

最後，我要向所有 Upstarters 以及支持他們的家人和朋友表示衷心的感謝。我們正在共同執行一項令人難以置信的使命，如果沒有你們每個人，這一切都是不可能的。謝謝。現在我想將其交給我們的首席財務官 Sanjay，讓他詳細介紹我們的 2023 年第二季度財務業績和指導。桑傑？

Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We're pleased with our return to sequential growth and EBITDA profitability this past quarter, as our work to unlock committed funding, rationalize our fixed cost base, and expand margins begins to bear fruit. We accomplished these objectives despite ongoing macro challenges for our lending partners. And despite a U.S. borrower whose recovery from the stimulus-driven effects of 2021 and 2022 has yet to fully materialize.

謝謝戴夫，也感謝大家今天加入我們。我們對上個季度恢復連續增長和 EBITDA 盈利能力感到高興，因為我們釋放承諾資金、合理化固定成本基礎和擴大利潤率的工作開始取得成果。儘管我們的貸款合作夥伴面臨持續的宏觀挑戰，但我們還是實現了這些目標。儘管美國借款人尚未從 2021 年和 2022 年刺激驅動的影響中完全復甦。

Our best measure of borrower delinquency trends, the Upstart Macro Index, has tread water over the past few months and in fact, even seen a more recent seasonal increase versus earlier '22 and '23 levels as we came off with a favorable tax refund seasonality that ran through April. Despite a continuing recovery in the disposable income stemming from the ever strengthening labor market, any incremental earnings over the past quarter has been directed almost entirely towards higher consumption, which has continued to increase in lockstep. And consumer balance sheets have not benefited from incremental savings as they had earlier in the year.

我們衡量借款人拖欠趨勢的最佳指標“新貴宏觀指數”在過去幾個月中一直停滯不前，事實上，由於我們獲得了有利的退稅季節性，與之前的“2​​2”和“ 23”水平相比，最近的季節性增長甚至有所增加整個四月。儘管勞動力市場不斷走強導致可支配收入持續復甦，但過去一個季度的任何增量收入幾乎完全用於消費增長，而消費持續同步增長。消費者的資產負債表並沒有像今年早些時候那樣從增量儲蓄中受益。

Despite these latest dynamics, we believe our underwriting models remain well calibrated to this environment. And we are expecting our vintages since late 2022 to deliver or exceed their targets. On the funding side of the ecosystem, banks remain conservative in managing the asset side of our balance sheet, generally seeking to rationalize loan positions and conserve cash in aggregate. The ongoing supply of loans on offer in the secondary markets by sellers anxious for liquidity contributes to a challenging market dynamic, with loan books being sold at bargain prices and creating no shortage of buying opportunities for selected investors.

儘管存在這些最新動態，我們相信我們的承保模式仍然能夠很好地適應這種環境。我們預計自 2022 年底以來我們的年份將實現或超過目標。在生態系統的融資方面，銀行在管理資產負債表的資產方面仍然保守，通常尋求合理化貸款頭寸並節省總體現金。急需流動性的賣家在二級市場上持續提供貸款，這導致市場動態充滿挑戰，貸款簿以低廉的價格出售，為選定的投資者創造了不乏購買機會的機會。

Our view is that it will take some time for the market to work its way through this surplus of cheap available yield. Despite this, we continue to pursue a number of promising discussions with prospective funding partners, aimed at bringing more committed capital to the platform, and believe that we will be well positioned once the loan market returns to a more traditional state of pricing equilibrium.

我們的觀點是，市場需要一段時間才能消化掉廉價可用收益率的過剩。儘管如此，我們仍繼續與潛在的融資合作夥伴進行一些有希望的討論，旨在為平台帶來更多的承諾資本，並相信一旦貸款市場恢復到更傳統的定價均衡狀態，我們將處於有利地位。

With these items as context, here are some financial highlights from the second quarter of 2023. Revenue from fees was $144 million in Q2, comfortably above our guided expectation of $130 million, aided by a beneficial mix shift towards institutional funding as well as ongoing take rate optimization. Net interest income was negative $8 million, largely owing to higher-than-expected discount rates and unrealized fair value adjustments on some existing assets as well as the impact of rising borrower charge-offs, particularly in our legacy R&D portfolio.

以這些項目為背景，以下是2023 年第二季度的一些財務亮點。第二季度的費用收入為1.44 億美元，遠高於我們1.3 億美元的指導預期，這得益於向機構融資的有益組合轉變以及持續的投資速率優化。淨利息收入為負 800 萬美元，主要是由於貼現率高於預期、部分現有資產未實現公允價值調整以及借款人沖銷增加的影響，特別是在我們的傳統研發投資組合中。

Taken together, net revenue for Q2 came in at $136 million, slightly above guidance and representing a 40% contraction year-over-year. The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 109,000 loans, up roughly 30% sequentially and representing over 43,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of $11,000 was up 4% versus the same period last year, but down sequentially due to growth in small dollar loans. Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 67% in Q2, up 20 percentage points from 47% last year and 7 percentage points above our guided expectation for the quarter.

總的來說，第二季度淨收入為 1.36 億美元，略高於預期，同比下降 40%。第二季度我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 109,000 筆貸款，比上一季度增長約 30%，代表超過 43,000 名新借款人。平均貸款規模為 11,000 美元，較去年同期增長 4%，但由於小額貸款增長而環比下降。我們的貢獻利潤率是一項非公認會計準則指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，佔費用收入的百分比，第二季度為67%，比去年的47% 上升了20 個百分點比我們對本季度的指導預期高出 7 個百分點。

Continued investment in loan processing, automation and fraud models have led to a new high in fully automated rates at 87%, bringing down loan onboarding costs and improving the conversion efficiency of our marketing dollars. Higher numbers of repeat borrowers have similarly improved our overall cost per acquisition, and a mix shift towards institutional funding has benefited our take rates. Taken together, our contribution margins are stronger than they have ever been.

對貸款處理、自動化和欺詐模型的持續投資使完全自動化率達到 87% 的新高，降低了貸款啟動成本並提高了我們營銷資金的轉換效率。重複借款人數量的增加同樣提高了我們每次收購的總體成本，而向機構融資的混合轉變也使我們的融資率受益。總而言之，我們的邊際貢獻比以往任何時候都高。

Operating expenses were $169 million in Q2, down 35% year-over-year and 28% sequentially, as workforce restructuring initiatives announced in Q1 are now translating into reduced operating burn. In addition, as Dave alluded to, we have done a significant amount of work to improve the efficiency and decrease the overall expense of our technical infrastructure, which represents a large portion of our fixed cost base. Declines in other categories such as sales and marketing and consumer -- customer operations were largely in line with the decline in the loan volumes that drive them.

第二季度運營支出為 1.69 億美元，同比下降 35%，環比下降 28%，因為第一季度宣布的勞動力重組舉措現已轉化為運營消耗的減少。此外，正如戴夫所提到的，我們已經做了大量的工作來提高效率並降低技術基礎設施的總體費用，這占我們固定成本基礎的很大一部分。銷售、營銷以及消費者業務等其他類別的下降在很大程度上與推動這些類別的貸款量下降一致。

Altogether, Q2 GAAP net loss was $28.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $11 million, both comfortably ahead of guidance. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.06, based on a diluted weighted average share count of 91.0 million. We ended the quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $838 million, down sequentially from $982 million the prior quarter. Of that amount, loans made for the purposes of R&D principally within the auto segment represented $493 million of the total.

總計，第二季度 GAAP 淨虧損為 2,820 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為正 1,100 萬美元，均大幅超出指引。根據稀釋後加權平均股數 9100 萬股計算，調整後每股收益為 0.06 美元。本季度結束時，我們資產負債表上的貸款為 8.38 億美元，比上一季度的 9.82 億美元有所下降。其中，主要用於汽車領域研發的貸款佔總額的 4.93 億美元。

Just after quarter close, we completed a one-off $200 million ABS transaction funded entirely from our own balance sheet. As you may recall, we traditionally sponsor ABS transactions on behalf of our loan buyers, who are usually the principal economic agents and loan contributors to the transaction. In this case, we took the unusual step of funding a deal from the Q2 vintages accumulated entirely on our own balance sheet.

季度結束後不久，我們一次性完成了一筆 2 億美元的 ABS 交易，資金完全來自我們自己的資產負債表。您可能還記得，我們傳統上代表我們的貸款買家發起 ABS 交易，這些買家通常是交易的主要經濟代理人和貸款貢獻者。在這種情況下，我們採取了不同尋常的步驟，從完全在我們自己的資產負債表上積累的第二季度的資金中為一筆交易提供資金。

We did this both to reset the market understanding for how our more recent vintages should be expected to perform, as well as to serve as a visible signal to the market of our confidence in the adjustments that have been made by our own underwriting models in adapting to the new environment. Our corporate liquidity position at the end of Q2 remains strong, with $510 million of total cash on the balance sheet and approximately $558 million in net loan equity at fair value.

我們這樣做既是為了重新設定市場對我們最近年份葡萄酒的預期表現的理解，也是向市場發出一個明顯的信號，表明我們對我們自己的承保模式在適應新形勢下所做的調整充滿信心。到新環境。截至第二季度末，我們的企業流動性狀況依然強勁，資產負債表上的現金總額為 5.1 億美元，按公允價值計算的淨貸款權益約為 5.58 億美元。

Looking ahead, while there remain good reasons to be optimistic about the general longer-term direction of the U.S. consumer, in the short term, we remain circumspect about the timing of the recovery of borrower delinquency trends and the recovering health of the funding markets, more broadly. In particular, until we see a definitive inflection and reversal in the trajectory of UMI, we will continue to err on the side of being very conservative in our assessment and pricing of borrowers.

展望未來，雖然仍有充分理由對美國消費者的總體長期方向保持樂觀，但短期內，我們仍對借款人拖欠趨勢復甦的時機和融資市場恢復健康狀況持謹慎態度，更廣泛地。特別是，在我們看到 UMI 的軌跡出現明確的拐點和逆轉之前，我們將繼續在對借款人的評估和定價方面採取非常保守的做法。

With this context in mind, for Q3 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $140 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $150 million and net interest income of approximately negative $10 million; contribution margin of approximately 65%, net income of approximately negative $38 million; adjusted net income of approximately negative $2 million; adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million; and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 84.5 million shares.

考慮到這一背景，我們預計 2023 年第三季度的總收入約為 1.4 億美元，其中費用收入為 1.5 億美元，淨利息收入約為負 1000 萬美元；貢獻邊際約為 65%，淨利潤約為負 3800 萬美元；調整後淨利潤約為負200萬美元；調整後的 EBITDA 約為 500 萬美元；稀釋後加權平均股數約為8450萬股。

Notwithstanding the promising direction this past quarter, there is still much work to be done to restore our business to the scale and growth that we aspire to. We have made encouraging recent strides in execution, operational discipline, technological innovation and dealmaking. And while we await emergence from the combined jet wash of the funding macro and the borrower delinquency trends that are running their course, we will continue to push for further progress in all of these areas.

儘管上個季度的發展方向充滿希望，但要使我們的業務恢復到我們期望的規模和增長，仍有許多工作要做。我們最近在執行、運營紀律、技術創新和交易方面取得了令人鼓舞的進步。在我們等待融資宏觀和借款人拖欠趨勢的雙重影響出現的同時，我們將繼續推動所有這些領域取得進一步進展。

When we are finally clear of the environmental turmoil around us, we are convinced that our business will be as formidable as ever. Thanks to all of the teams at Upstart who continue to execute ahead of expectations. This has obviously not been an easy past few quarters, but I am confident that we are pointed in the right direction and that we have the right people in place to seize the once-in-a-generation opportunity that remains before us. Or as we like to say internally, we are under the maple tree.

當我們最終擺脫周圍的環境動盪時，我們相信我們的業務將一如既往地強大。感謝 Upstart 的所有團隊繼續超預期地執行任務。過去幾個季度這顯然並不容易，但我相信我們的方向是正確的，我們有合適的人來抓住擺在我們面前的千載難逢的機會。或者正如我們內部喜歡說的，我們在楓樹下。

With that, Dave and I are happy to open the call to any questions. Operator?

至此，戴夫和我很高興可以通過電話解答任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

（操作員說明）我們將回答 Atlantic Equities 的 Simon Clinch 提出的第一個問題。

I'm really interested in, I guess, what levers you -- or perhaps how you respond when you start to see the UMI flatten or improve. What are the levers that you would be able to pull? And how should we think, therefore, about the speed at which you can start to get a recovery in your conversion rates and your general loan growth and your market share gains as a result of that?

我想，我真的很感興趣是什麼在影響你——或者當你開始看到 UMI 變平或改善時你會如何反應。您可以利用哪些槓桿？因此，我們應該如何考慮您的轉換率、總體貸款增長以及由此帶來的市場份額增益開始恢復的速度？

Sure. Thanks, Simon. This is Dave. Basically, we are watching UMI trends and effectively maintaining what we hope to be a buffer between the assumptions that are in a new loan model or in the loans that are being produced in any particular time to the trend in UMI. So as we will hopefully see over time, UMI trending back down. At some point, the underlying assumption in the models, we'll stick with that. And again, maintaining -- always aiming to maintain a buffer, but it should trend down. So UMI, as you see, it really is the output of what's going on out there in the economy. And we always want to stay ahead of it. And the best thing we can really do is make sure UMI is as accurate and as recent as possible. That's why we're sort of continuing to innovate on it. But it will be a good indication of when the assumptions that will go into the next loans that are being originated.

當然。謝謝，西蒙。這是戴夫。基本上，我們正在觀察 UMI 趨勢，並有效地維持我們希望在新貸款模型或任何特定時間產生的貸款中的假設與 UMI 趨勢之間的緩衝。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們希望看到 UMI 呈回落趨勢。在某些時候，我們將堅持模型中的基本假設。再次強調，始終旨在保持緩衝，但它應該呈下降趨勢。所以 UMI，正如你所看到的，它確實是經濟中正在發生的事情的產出。我們始終希望保持領先地位。我們真正能做的最好的事情就是確保 UMI 盡可能準確且最新。這就是為什麼我們要繼續創新。但這將很好地表明何時將進入下一筆貸款的假設。

Okay. I understand. And just as a follow-up then, I was wondering, maybe, Sanjay, you could talk through the slide on the long-term funding commitments and your share of the risk and just make sure we understand sort of what's going on in that particular situation as an example.

好的。我明白。作為後續行動，我想知道，桑傑，也許你可以通過幻燈片討論長期資金承諾和你的風險份額，並確保我們了解該特定領域正在發生的事情情況為例。

Simon, this is Sanjay. Happy to do it. Yes, so we have a new slide in our materials that's meant to sort of pull together the punch line for essentially what we have at risk as part of our committed capital partnerships. They're a little bit hard to pull together in the financials directly because the contracts are a little bit different and they're all accounted for a little bit differently. But I guess at a headline level, as part of those deals, we have invested or co-invested to date on the order of $40 million. So that, I guess, you can think of as the maximum exposure we have.

西蒙，這是桑傑。很高興做這件事。是的，所以我們在材料中添加了一張新幻燈片，旨在將我們在承諾的資本合作夥伴關係中所面臨的風險本質上匯總起來。直接將它們整合到財務數據中有點困難，因為合同有點不同，而且它們的核算方式也有點不同。但我認為，作為這些交易的一部分，我們迄今為止已投資或共同投資了約 4000 萬美元。所以，我想，你可以將其視為我們擁有的最大曝光度。

That $40 million, over time, will be worth as little as 0 or as much as around $80 million, $83 million, I guess, depending on the timing extent to which these loans over- or underperform. Our best current estimate, given the trend, is that that $40 million, we believe, is on track to be worth about $52 million. So there's some marginal overperformance there. But that's something that we will obviously forecast and interact with you guys over time.

隨著時間的推移，這 4000 萬美元的價值將低至 0，高至 8000 萬美元、8300 萬美元左右，我猜，這取決於這些貸款表現優異或表現不佳的時間範圍。鑑於目前的趨勢，我們目前最好的估計是，我們相信這 4000 萬美元有望價值約 5200 萬美元。因此，存在一些邊際超額表現。但隨著時間的推移，我們顯然會預測這一點並與你們互動。

We will take our next question from Lance Jessurun with BTIG.

我們將接受 BTIG 的 Lance Jessurun 提出的下一個問題。

First one is just around kind of the governor on your growth right now, which is that 36% APR. Any commentary or color around how many you kind of have to turn back right now? Because the risk model is turning them above 36%. And how should we kind of think about that going forward in the coincidence of where you see Fed funds going?

第一個是關於你現在的增長的調控，即 36% 的年利率。對於現在有多少人必須回頭有什麼評論或看法嗎？因為風險模型使他們的比率超過 36%。在您看到聯邦基金的去向的同時，我們應該如何思考這一點？

Hey Lance, let's see. So I guess that 36% APR cap with the current levels of UMI is a significant constraint on our business. In fact, I think as we stand today, it's probably the bigger constraint on growth on our platform, it's very punitive from the perspective of our approval rates, which are quite low right now. How to think about this evolving going forward? Well, the 36% APR cap will not change. That's something that is sort of sacred to us.

嘿，蘭斯，讓我們看看。因此，我認為當前 UMI 水平下 36% 的年利率上限對我們的業務是一個重大限制。事實上，我認為就我們今天的情況而言，這可能是對我們平台增長的更大限制，從我們現在很低的支持率的角度來看，這是非常懲罰性的。如何看待未來的發展？嗯，36% 的年利率上限不會改變。這對我們來說是神聖的事情。

As UMI declines, sort of as Simon said in his question, is our observed -- the observation of UMI declines over time, because presumably, the macro economies coming back into equilibrium. We will accordingly reduce the forward assumptions being fed to the model, and that will essentially reflect lower loss estimates over time. And that will pull borrowers who were currently excluded from our credit box, they'll pull them back into the approval universe. So that's the mechanism by which we would expect to grow as loss rates in the economy subside and as UMI comes back down.

正如西蒙在他的問題中所說，隨著 UMI 的下降，我們觀察到——隨著時間的推移，UMI 的觀察值會下降，因為宏觀經濟可能會恢復平衡。我們將相應地減少輸入模型的前瞻性假設，這將本質上反映隨著時間的推移損失估計會降低。這將把目前被排除在我們的信用箱之外的借款人拉回審批領域。因此，隨著經濟損失率下降和 UMI 回落，我們預計經濟會通過這種機制實現增長。

Got it. And then in terms of July data, I know there's been some alternative data sources out there, but anything you can kind of frame around July data and where it's come in? And how do you kind of see that in terms of a quarter or in terms of a monthly run rate through August and September?

知道了。然後就 7 月數據而言，我知道有一些替代數據源，但是您可以圍繞 7 月數據構建任何框架以及它的來源嗎？您如何看待季度或八月和九月的月度運行率？

You're asking about July data, Lance?

你是在問 7 月份的數據嗎，蘭斯？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

I don't -- we're not really in a position to comment at all on July numbers. Hopefully, we'll have a good report for you when we talk about Q3.

我不——我們真的無法對 7 月份的數據發表評論。希望當我們談論第三季度時，我們能為您提供一份好的報告。

We will take our next question from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行拉姆齊·阿薩爾 (Ramsey El-Assal) 提出的下一個問題。

This is John Coffey on for Ramsey. I was wondering, Sanjay, if you could tell me a little bit more about the loan balances you have on the balance sheet. I know some came off in Q2, I think, from some of your new partners. And clearly, those got built up a little bit again. Could you just maybe talk briefly about how we should think about the cadence of those loans on the balance sheet for the remainder of the year? And if that like $1 billion mark is still sort of maybe -- any sort of informal high watermark that you won't go beyond? Or have you rethought that a little bit?

這是拉姆齊的約翰·科菲。桑傑，我想知道您是否可以告訴我更多有關資產負債表上的貸款餘額的信息。我知道，我想，你們的一些新合作夥伴在第二季度就完成了一些工作。顯然，這些又重新建立起來了。您能否簡單談談我們應該如何考慮今年剩餘時間內資產負債表上這些貸款的節奏？如果像 10 億美元這樣的大關仍然是一種可能——任何一種你不會超越的非正式高水位線？或者你有沒有重新思考過這一點？

John, I guess -- a specific comment, a general comment. The comment specific to Q2 would be, yes, it is true that while the net loan balance from Q1 to Q2 went down, we sort of went down further and then built it back up. One of the things we were doing very deliberately was to build up some very fresh collateral to be able to put into an ABS deal. And that ABS deal, as I said in my remarks, happened after the end of the quarter. So those loans sort of stood on our balance sheet at the end of the quarter, and shortly after we put them into an ABS deal.

約翰，我想——一個具體的評論，一個一般性的評論。針對第二季度的具體評論是，是的，確實，雖然從第一季度到第二季度的淨貸款餘額下降了，但我們進一步下降，然後又回升。我們非常謹慎地做的一件事是建立一些非常新的抵押品，以便能夠投入 ABS 交易。正如我在發言中所說，該 ABS 交易發生在本季度末之後。因此，這些貸款在本季度末以及我們將其納入 ABS 交易後不久就出現在我們的資產負債表上。

It's a bit unusual for us to run an ABS deal off of our own balance sheet, as I said, but there's a couple of important reasons for why we wanted to do it. We wanted to put fresh collateral into the securitization reporting so that people could see how the models have changed and how they might expect freshly originated loans to perform. So that's maybe 1 dynamic that's specific to the quarter.

正如我所說，我們在自己的資產負債表之外進行資產支持證券交易有點不尋常，但我們想要這樣做有幾個重要原因。我們希望在證券化報告中加入新的抵押品，以便人們可以看到模型發生了怎樣的變化，以及他們對新發放的貸款的預期如何。這可能是本季度特有的一個動態。

More generally, I think our construct has not changed. We're comfortable going up to a number around $1 billion or so in loan assets. And that's a number that leaves us with still, I think, a comfortable amount of cash to continue running the business and add some safety stock. And within that parameter, we'll sort of flux up and down as we believe benefits the business.

更一般地說，我認為我們的結構沒有改變。我們願意將貸款資產增加到 10 億美元左右。我認為，這個數字仍然給我們留下了足夠的現金來繼續經營業務並增加一些安全庫存。在這個參數範圍內，我們會隨著我們認為對業務有利而上下波動。

We will take our next question from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research.

我們將接受自治研究中心的 Rob Wildhack 提出的下一個問題。

Just another question about the committed capital co-investment. I do appreciate the detail in the slides there. How are changes to that reflected in the income statement? And does that mean that there's a plus $11.5 million impact in the second quarter from the markup over the $40.2 million?

這是關於承諾資本共同投資的另一個問題。我確實很欣賞幻燈片中的細節。這些變化如何反映在損益表中？這是否意味著第二季度的加價比 4020 萬美元增加了 1150 萬美元？

Yes. Hey, Rob. So the short answer is no. That impact is not in the P&L. I wish it were that simple. The reality is we've done a couple of different deals and contractually they all have their nuances. I think the result of that is that they're all being accounted for it in slightly different ways. Some of it is showing up in the balance sheet as a beneficial interest. Some of it is showing up on the balance sheet under our restricted assets. Some of it is being fair valued. Some of it is being carried at cost. So I think the difficulty of trying to pull all those different accounting treatments together and create a clear picture is the reason why we're just going to put it on 1 slide for you. But the short answer to your ultimate question is, no, it's not really hitting the P&L in a way where fair value is being recognized in the net interest income line .

是的。嘿，羅布。所以簡短的回答是否定的。這種影響並不在損益表中。我希望事情就是這麼簡單。現實情況是，我們已經完成了幾筆不同的交易，並且在合同上它們都有細微差別。我認為這樣做的結果是，他們的解釋方式都略有不同。其中一些作為實益權益出現在資產負債表中。其中一些出現在我們的資產負債表上的受限資產項下。其中一些是公允價值的。其中一些是按成本計算的。因此，我認為嘗試將所有這些不同的會計處理方法整合在一起並創建清晰的圖片是很困難的，這就是我們將其放在一張幻燈片上為您提供的原因。但對你的最終問題的簡短回答是，不，它並沒有真正以公允價值在淨利息收入線中得到認可的方式影響損益表。

Okay. And then of the $2 billion longer-term funding commitment you announced in May, how much of that was funded in the second quarter .

好的。然後，在您 5 月份宣布的 20 億美元長期融資承諾中，有多少是在第二季度提供的。

I mean I would say approximately -- if you sort of remove the back book component that was a component of that original deal, roughly a quarter.

我的意思是，如果你去掉原始交易中的後書部分，我會說大約是四分之一。

Okay. So 1 quarter in excess of the $352 million that you sold. No, I think you dropped for me quickly.

好的。比您售出的 3.52 億美元多了 1 個季度。不，我想你很快就愛上了我。

I just said that, that's correct. The statement that you made beyond the back book sale, it was about 1/4 of the remainder.

我剛才就這麼說了，是對的。你在售書後所做的聲明，大約佔剩餘的 1/4。

We will take our next question from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley. .

我們將接受摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特提出的下一個問題。 。

Just hoping to get a little bit of clarification really quickly here. And maybe I missed it. In the guide, you're looking for around minus $10 million net interest income in the third quarter. Is that being driven by loans on the balance sheet or the way that the funding commitments work through the P&L? Just trying to make sure I understand that mechanism.

只是希望能在這裡很快得到一些澄清。也許我錯過了。在指南中，您希望第三季度的淨利息收入約為負 1000 萬美元。這是由資產負債表上的貸款還是資金承諾通過損益表運作的方式驅動的？只是想確保我理解該機制。

James. Yes, I would say a major factor in that number is the fact that by and large, our balance sheet now particularly after the ABS deal we completed, which -- where we cleared out most of our recent sort of core personal loans. The remaining balances are R&D and a lot of it is very seasoned. -- and some of those older vintages of, say, auto loans, auto loans from 1.5 years ago, their charge-offs are starting to grow, both because they were originated at a time where our models were still sort of in calibration and as well, they were originated in an environment that was -- and has rapidly deteriorated. So on some of the -- maybe you could think of this partly as some of the cost of doing R&D we've got a book of R&D loans now and the charge-offs are elevated. .

詹姆士。是的，我想說，這個數字的一​​個主要因素是，總的來說，我們的資產負債表現在特別是在我們完成了 ABS 交易之後，我們清除了最近的大部分核心個人貸款。剩餘的餘額用於研發，其中很多都非常成熟。 - 一些較舊的年份，例如汽車貸款，1.5 年前的汽車貸款，其沖銷開始增長，這既是因為它們起源於我們的模型仍處於校準狀態的時期，嗯，它們起源於一個正在迅速惡化的環境。因此，在某些方面，也許您可​​以將其部分視為研發成本的一部分，我們現在有一本研發貸款賬簿，並且沖銷額有所提高。 。

Okay. Great. And then I guess just as related to demand and originations -- like how are you thinking about the impact from higher take rate? And how should we think about how those could move and how overall origination should trend at least on a sequential basis through the rest of this year and into '24.

好的。偉大的。然後我想這與需求和起源同樣相關——比如你如何考慮更高的採用率的影響？我們應該如何思考這些將如何發展，以及整體起源應該如何趨勢，至少在今年剩餘時間和進入 24 世紀的連續基礎上。

James, for sure, our rates are kind of as high as they've ever been, I believe, and that -- part of that is a function of UMI being super high. Part of it is the return demanded by the market is much higher, of course, related to Fed rates. And also our take rate is high. And all 3 of those contribute to the rates being high. We would anticipate those things kind of coming off together. So as you see UMI trend down and maybe at some point, interest rates will trend down as well, but also our take rate is probably higher than we would see it being in a kind of normalized scenario. So all 3 of those are very high, driving price very high.

詹姆斯，當然，我相信我們的利率是歷史最高的，部分原因是 UMI 超高。部分原因是市場要求的回報要高得多，當然，這與美聯儲利率有關。而且我們的採用率也很高。所有這三個因素都導致了高利率。我們預計這些事情會同時發生。因此，當你看到 UMI 趨勢下降時，也許在某個時候，利率也會下降，但我們的利率也可能高於我們在正常化情況下看到的水平。所以這三個因素都非常高，導致價格非常高。

And for sure, the reason -- I mean, the counter to that is that the market for the loan demand is very strong. And for that reason, that's why you're seeing very low CAC. And so that's kind of the place where we are today. Prices for credit are super high. Demand remains super high, and that sort of nets out to where we are right now.

當然，原因是——我的意思是，與此相反的是，貸款需求市場非常強勁。出於這個原因，這就是為什麼你會看到 CAC 非常低的原因。這就是我們今天所處的境地。信貸的價格非常高。需求仍然非常高，這就是我們現在所處的位置。

We will take our next question from Reggie Smith with JPMorgan.

我們將接受摩根大通雷吉·史密斯的下一個問題。

I guess kind of a follow-up to the last question. It sounds like obviously, pricing is up right now. How do you guys think about managing adverse selection? Maybe talk a little bit about some of the sensitivity people may exhibit to price. I see that your approval or conversion rate is down. And I know there's 2 components to that. I would imagine approvals are down, but maybe you could talk a little bit about the acceptance of these offers as well to kind of give us some color there. And I have a follow-up.

我想這是最後一個問題的後續。聽起來顯然，現在定價已經上漲了。你們如何看待逆向選擇的管理？也許可以談談人們可能對價格表現出的一些敏感性。我發現您的批准率或轉化率下降了。我知道這有兩個組成部分。我想批准率會下降，但也許你也可以談談對這些提議的接受程度，以便給我們一些啟發。我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Hey, Reggie. Sure. So let's see a little bit about adverse selection. Adverse selection tends to be an impact that is greater where the market or the segment is more competitive. So when there's a lot of sort of competing alternatives. And you try to raise your rates, you'll typically suffer from adverse selection. And of course, the -- when segments are less competed, adverse selection is less of an effect.

是的。嘿，雷吉。當然。讓我們來了解一下逆向選擇。當市場或細分市場競爭更加激烈時，逆向選擇的影響往往更大。所以當有很多競爭的選擇時。當你試圖提高利率時，你通常會遭受逆向選擇。當然，當細分市場競爭較少時，逆向選擇的影響就會較小。

In our case, for a lot of the segments where we tend to learn a lot of volume, even with higher rates, we tend to still have the best rates available. So even with higher take rates and higher loss assumptions, we -- in many instances, are still significantly below what you might think it was the market clearing rate out there based on the credit scores. And so in that instance, there's not a lot of discernible adverse selection. And if we were to try and raise our take rate significantly in very highly competed segments, very prime borrowers, then it's something that we would be thinking about a lot more.

就我們而言，對於我們傾向於學習大量內容的許多細分市場，即使費率較高，我們仍然傾向於擁有最好的費率。因此，即使採用更高的接受率和更高的損失假設，在許多情況下，我們仍然大大低於您可能認為的基於信用評分的市場清算率。因此在這種情況下，並沒有太多明顯的逆向選擇。如果我們要嘗試在競​​爭非常激烈的細分市場、非常優質的借款人中顯著提高我們的利率，那麼我們就會更多地考慮這一點。

Understood.

明白了。

And your second question, Reggie, was about acceptance rates?

雷吉，你的第二個問題是關於錄取率？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Yes. I mean it's very simple. It's a pretty classic sort of supply and demand construct, where we raise our rates. And not only do our approval rates go down because of the 36% APR cut off, but for those who remain approved, they'll be less likely to take a loan. And typically, at least what we've observed in our data is that people who don't take loans with us don't necessarily take them from a competing source. The majority of them just don't take the loan. So it causes people's demand to reduce.

是的。我的意思是這很簡單。這是一種非常經典的供需結構，我們提高利率。不僅我們的批准率會因為年利率 36% 的削減而下降，而且對於那些仍然獲得批准的人來說，他們申請貸款的可能性也會降低。通常，至少我們在數據中觀察到的是，不向我們貸款的人不一定從競爭來源獲得貸款。他們中的大多數人只是不接受貸款。所以導致人們的需求減少。

Sure. Got it. And 1 quick follow-up on the co-investment, and I appreciate the disclosure. How should we think about that book? Are these loans subordinated to the rest of the structure? Is there a certain ratio that you must hold relative to what you run through these -- through the committed facility? Any color you could share there would be helpful for kind of modeling and thinking about that.

當然。知道了。對聯合投資進行了 1 次快速跟進，我很欣賞這一披露。我們應該如何看待這本書？這些貸款是否從屬於結構的其餘部分？相對於您通過這些（通過承諾的設施）運行的內容，您是否必須保持一定的比率？您可以在那里分享的任何顏色都會對建模和思考有所幫助。

Sure. Yes. I mean they do tend to sit in the equity part of the stack, if you will, on a loan (inaudible) money and maybe mezzanine money in sort of equity or residual money, this tends to be sort of at the equity side of the stack. There's no -- there's not necessarily any sort of specific ratios. I think each time there is an investment made by 1 of our committed capital partners. We tend to have a co-investment that varies depending on the relationship.

當然。是的。我的意思是，如果你願意的話，他們確實傾向於坐在堆棧的股權部分，通過貸款（聽不清）資金，也許夾層資金以股權或剩餘資金的形式，這往往是在股權方面堆。沒有——不一定有任何具體的比率。我認為每次都有我們的一位忠誠的資本合作夥伴進行投資。我們傾向於根據關係的不同進行不同的共同投資。

So I guess there's no way to kind of think about or know how large that could be? Like do you have expectations over the next few quarters, like how big that could be?

所以我想沒有辦法思考或知道它可能有多大？你對未來幾個季度有什麼期望嗎？比如可能有多大？

None that we're talking about explicitly, but I guess I would say, like we consider this to be a part of the overall sort of risk budget of the business, and we've talked about sort of making sure we stay at or under a level of about $1 billion in asset risk. And this is part of that envelope. So I would anticipate over time, more of our capital sort of falling into this category, maybe less under direct loan assets, where we can sort of use our capital to unlock broader pools of capital and co-invest, as opposed to having loans directly on the balance sheet. But I think what we're going to try to do with you guys is have a conversation about the overall sort of risk position and risk budget of the company, and we'll certainly have some views on how big we would ever want that to get.

我們沒有明確討論，但我想我會說，就像我們認為這是業務總體風險預算的一部分，並且我們已經討論過確保我們保持在或低於資產風險水平約為 10 億美元。這是信封的一部分。因此，我預計隨著時間的推移，我們的資本將更多地屬於這一類別，也許更少地屬於直接貸款資產，我們可以利用我們的資本來解鎖更廣泛的資本池和共同投資，而不是直接貸款在資產負債表上。但我認為我們將嘗試與你們討論公司的整體風險狀況和風險預算，我們肯定會對我們希望達到多大的規模有一些看法。得到。

We will take our next question from Giuliano Bologna with Compass Point.

我們將接受 Compass Point 的 Giuliano Bologna 提出的下一個問題。

One thing I'm curious about is you obviously put in that new risk sharing disclosure. What I would be curious about -- and I realize this period is probably somewhat different because you did a loan sale and you had some of the forward funding agreements funding in the quarter. I'm curious if you can provide a rough sense of how much principal that -- that risk, $40 million or so of up-down risk-sharing covers.

我好奇的一件事是你顯然加入了新的風險分擔披露。我很好奇的是——我意識到這個時期可能有所不同，因為你進行了貸款銷售，並且你在本季度獲得了一些遠期融資協議資金。我很好奇你是否能粗略地了解一下這個風險，大約 4000 萬美元左右的上下風險分擔涵蓋了多少本金。

Giuliano, yes, on the order of $800 million.

朱利亞諾，是的，大約 8 億美元。

That sounds good. Very helpful. Then the next thing I'd be curious about is just thinking about from a funding perspective, you obviously built up the balance sheet and then disclosed some during 3Q with the ABS deal. I'd be curious if you have a rough sense of how much balance sheet -- so how much the volume was that flowed through the balance sheet during the second quarter.

聽起來很好。很有幫助。然後我好奇的下一件事就是從融資角度考慮，您顯然建立了資產負債表，然後在第三季度通過 ABS 交易披露了一些資產負債表。我很好奇你是否對第二季度資產負債表的流動量有多少粗略的了解。

Yes. I don't think we have that explicitly broken out, but I think that's something that you could probably deduce from the cash flow statement. We can point you in the right direction when we chat later.

是的。我認為我們沒有明確細分，但我認為您可以從現金流量表中推斷出這一點。當我們稍後聊天時，我們可以為您指明正確的方向。

It'll probably also come out in the queue when that comes out as well. And the only question, I think, which is a little bit of a follow-up. Obviously, on the forward funding agreement side, you had mentioned in the past, roughly $500 million per quarter. You mentioned an additional -- some additional partners. I'd be curious if that number changes. And obviously, that will impact kind of where the risk sharing goes, because you won't have -- may not have large loan sales going forward. I'd be curious just to get your perspective on that.

當它發佈時，它也可能會出現在隊列中。我認為唯一的問題是一個後續問題。顯然，在遠期融資協議方面，您過去曾提到過，每季度大約 5 億美元。您提到了一些額外的合作夥伴。我很好奇這個數字是否會改變。顯然，這將影響風險分擔的方向，因為未來可能不會有大量貸款銷售。我很想知道你對此的看法。

Sure. So you're asking if the amount of committed funding per quarter expectation has grown?

當然。那麼您想知道每季度預期承諾資金額是否有所增長？

Yes, if that has changed. Last quarter, what was mentioned was roughly $500 million per quarter. I'm curious if that has changed with the new funding agreements and based on the current arrangements in place.

是的，如果情況改變了。上個季度，提到的大約是每季度 5 億美元。我很好奇這種情況是否會隨著新的融資協議以及當前的安排而改變。

I would say not in a meaningful enough way to sort of reannounce it, if you will. As Dave mentioned, we did -- we are working with a new partner in the committed capital world, and they're now contributing to our funding. But some of our constraints now are on the borrower side. And so I think given that, we're probably in a similar ballpark.

如果你願意的話，我想說的是，沒有以足夠有意義的方式重新宣布它。正如戴夫提到的，我們做到了——我們正在與承諾資本世界的新合作夥伴合作，他們現在正在為我們提供資金。但現在我們的一些限制來自於借款人。因此，我認為鑑於此，我們可能處於類似的情況。

That's very helpful. I appreciate the answers to the questions, and I will jump back in the queue.

這非常有幫助。我很感謝這些問題的答案，我會跳回到隊列中。

We will take our next question from David Scharf with JMP Securities.

我們將回答 JMP 證券公司的 David Scharf 提出的下一個問題。

A lot have been asked, I guess these are kind of extensions of what's already been offered up. But Sanjay, just back to, I guess, the funding side and how it impacts kind of how you're thinking about originations. I know you've reiterated sort of the comfort level of that $1 billion ceiling on retained assets. But is there any sort of targeted road map? And then -- for year-end, where you'd like to get the balance sheet contracted to?

人們提出了很多問題，我想這些都是已經提供的內容的擴展。但是桑傑，我想，回到資金方面以及它如何影響你對起源的思考。我知道您已經重申了 10 億美元保留資產上限的舒適程度。但有沒有什麼有針對性的路線圖呢？然後，到了年底，您希望將資產負債表收縮到哪裡？

I mean, should we be thinking about all these new funding partners as vehicles for stepped-up asset sales in the second half? Just trying to get a sense how we ought to think about the on-balance sheet exposure going out 6 months, and ultimately, how much room you have to reaccelerate volumes when the macro environment dictates it.

我的意思是，我們是否應該將所有這些新的融資合作夥伴視為下半年加速資產出售的工具？只是想了解一下我們應該如何考慮未來 6 個月的資產負債表內風險，以及最終，當宏觀環境決定時，您有多少空間可以重新加速交易量。

Sure. Let's see. I mean, a lot of it is dependent on the environment, of course. I mean, in an ideal world, what we'd love to do is reduce the balance sheet significantly, apply it to R&D and begin to maybe apply more of it very surgically to these committed capital-type co-investments where we can unlock much larger pools of third-party capital. That's the ideal.

當然。讓我們來看看。我的意思是，當然，很大程度上取決於環境。我的意思是，在理想的世界中，我們想做的是大幅減少資產負債表，將其應用於研發，並開始可能將更多的資產非常手術地應用於這些承諾的資本類型聯合投資，在那裡我們可以釋放更多更大的第三方資本池。這就是理想的情況。

Now, we're in an environment where borrower demand is high, funding markets are tight. And frankly, the collateral has a lot of excess value. I think that they're priced for very high yields, and we can provide a lot of value to the business with 1 extra dollar origination from the perspective that we obviously unlock a lot of take rate. And then similarly, I think these loans are priced for good yield.

現在，我們正處於借款人需求高、融資市場緊張的環境中。坦率地說，抵押品有很多超額價值。我認為它們的定價非常高，從我們明顯釋放大量採用率的角度來看，我們可以通過額外 1 美元的來源為企業提供大量價值。同樣，我認為這些貸款的定價具有良好的收益率。

So it's a rational economic decision in the current environment. We love a normalized environment, where there is plenty of third-party capital to satisfy the borrower demand and we weren't in a position of using ours. But that will require essentially a normalization of the UMI and a normalization of the funding markets.

因此，這是當前環境下的理性經濟決策。我們喜歡正常化的環境，那裡有大量的第三方資本來滿足借款人的需求，而我們卻無法使用我們的資本。但這本質上需要 UMI 和融資市場的正常化。

Got it.

知道了。

It's hard to say whether that will happen by the end of the year or not.

很難說這是否會在今年年底發生。

Understood. And maybe a follow-up. Regarding the negative fair value marks again this quarter. Were the downward revisions -- are they mostly related to kind of discount rate, prevailing rates? Is it more credit performance-related? Or is it just based on -- with some of the underperforming loans for sale out there, just kind of prevailing market data points you're seeing?

明白了。也許還有後續行動。關於本季度公允價值再次出現負值。向下修正是否主要與貼現率、現行利率有關？是否與信用表現更相關？或者它只是基於一些表現不佳的待售貸款，只是您所看到的主流市場數據點？

And kind of related to that, is it sort of evenly distributed, those fair value decreases to personal loans in auto? Or is it more concentrated in auto?

與此相關的是，這些公允價值下降到汽車個人貸款的情況是否均勻分佈？還是更集中在汽車領域？

Sure. Yes. So in Q2, there's 2 things of about equal magnitude. One was on the unrealized fair value side, where some of our assets, notably, some of the co-investments we made in some of these deals. They were -- they had applied to them a much cheaper discount rate than we were anticipating by the third-party valuators. So that was sort of an unrealized value reduction.

當然。是的。因此，在第二季度，有兩件事的重要性大致相同。其中之一是未實現的公允價值，我們的一些資產，特別是我們在其中一些交易中進行的一些共同投資。他們對他們應用了比我們第三方評估師預期便宜得多的折扣率。所以這是一種未實現的價值減少。

And the other was what I mentioned earlier, which is -- well, I mean our R&D portfolio, which is predominantly auto, they are getting to a level of charge-offs, and all that are bringing down the NII line. I think if you're thinking about Q3 and forward, it's predominantly the latter. It's old loans in the auto segment that were originated in a very different environment with a model that was still undergoing calibration.

另一個是我之前提到的，那就是——嗯，我的意思是我們的研發組合，主要是汽車，他們正在達到沖銷的水平，所有這些都在拉低國家信息基礎設施線。我認為如果你考慮第三季度及以後的情況，那麼主要是後者。這是汽車領域的舊貸款，起源於一個非常不同的環境，其模型仍在進行校準。

And -- so now that I think we've learned a lot in our calibration of the auto product in terms of the scale and timing of that R&D effort. I think there's some great learnings we've had and how we will apply it differently to the next set of products that we're going to calibrate. But the auto book that we have, that's really at the root of a lot of charge-offs that are coming through the P&L.

而且，現在我認為我們在汽車產品的校準過程中，在研發工作的規模和時間安排方面學到了很多東西。我認為我們已經學到了一些很好的經驗，以及我們如何將其以不同的方式應用到我們要校準的下一組產品中。但我們擁有的汽車賬簿確實是損益表中大量沖銷的根源。

We will take our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

我們將回答文森特·凱恩蒂克和斯蒂芬斯提出的下一個問題。

First question, just kind of a big picture question about your funding partners. When we last spoke about the Castlelake $2 billion. I think that was a proof of concept. So just wondering if you could talk about kind of the conversations, the appetite you've been having from potential partners and kind of the mix between institutional investors versus the banks and other guys. Presumably, this co-invest -- this capital co-investment side is very helpful. And seeing that the assessed value is higher than the initial capital invested, so presumably, that implies that the performance is better than kind of the initial agreement. So just sort of wondering if you could talk about the appetite on your discussions with your partners.

第一個問題，只是關於您的資助合作夥伴的一個大局問題。當我們上次談到卡斯爾萊克 20 億美元時。我認為這是一個概念證明。因此，我想知道您是否可以談談潛在合作夥伴對您的興趣以及機構投資者與銀行和其他投資者之間的混合情況。想必這個跟投——這個資本跟投方是非常有幫助的。並且看到評估價值高於初始投資資本，因此可以推測，這意味著績效優於初始協議。所以想知道您是否可以談談與合作夥伴討論時的興趣。

Sure. Yes. So a couple of questions in there. This is Sanjay. I'll sort of talk through the first question related about the nature of the discussions around these sort of -- some of the capital-type deals. We've done a couple of deals now. And they are obviously different flavor, but they all sort of get to the same thing, which is it's a counterparty that has the wherewithal to spend through a cycle and for some committed period of time. And in exchange, we think there's some pretty attractive return profiles for them. And as we've shown, we're willing to put our skin in the game alongside.

當然。是的。所以有幾個問題。這是桑傑。我將談談第一個問題，該問題與圍繞此類交易的討論的性質有關——一些資本類型的交易。我們現在已經完成了幾筆交易。它們顯然是不同的風格，但它們都達到了同一件事，那就是交易對手有足夠的資金在一個週期和一段承諾的時間內花費。作為交換，我們認為他們有一些相當有吸引力的回報概況。正如我們所表明的，我們願意將自己的利益融入到遊戲中。

And I think that is, on the 1 hand, a very attractive conversation right now. And I think there's a lot of people who are engaging. On the other hand, as I said, it's a market with a lot of distraction in it right now. And so these conversations are making progress, but I think they are -- there's a lot of company. And any investor who's selective right now has a lot of interesting options available. Some are ad hoc and one-off. Others are more programmatic, like the ones we're talking about with them.

我認為，一方面，這是目前非常有吸引力的對話。我認為有很多人都參與其中。另一方面，正如我所說，目前這個市場存在很多干擾因素。因此，這些對話正在取得進展，但我認為——有很多公司。任何有選擇性的投資者現在都有很多有趣的選擇。有些是臨時的、一次性的。其他人則更具程序性，就像我們正在與他們談論的那樣。

And so I think that it's proving to be an interesting and attractive option, but in a crowded field right now. The split between institutional money and bank money, I would say, as we said in our remarks, some of our take rates benefited this quarter because there was a further shift towards institutional money. It's no secret that banks have challenges right now with liquidity. A lot of them, as we said, are looking to harvest cash. And so that was sort of a mix shift that happened in Q2. It wouldn't surprise me if that trend held or continued in Q3.

因此，我認為這被證明是一個有趣且有吸引力的選擇，但目前領域很擁擠。我想說，正如我們在講話中所說，機構資金和銀行資金之間的分歧，我們的一些利率在本季度受益，因為進一步轉向機構資金。銀行目前在流動性方面面臨挑戰，這已不是什麼秘密。正如我們所說，他們中的很多人都希望獲得現金。這就是第二季度發生的混合轉變。如果這種趨勢在第三季度保持或持續下去，我不會感到驚訝。

As for the -- sort of the committed capital that we outlined in our investor slide and how to think about it, I guess, first of all, we're saying that the -- a large part of that initial investment of capital on our part wasn't just new originations. As you recall, there was a back book transaction. That was a part of the Castlelake deal that you mentioned. And so there was a sort of a onetime sort of retention of basis in that deal. That's part of the $40 million.

至於我們在投資者幻燈片中概述的承諾資本以及如何思考它，我想，首先，我們要說的是，我們的初始資本投資的很大一部分部分不僅僅是新的起源。正如您所記得的，有一筆欠賬交易。這是你提到的卡斯爾萊克交易的一部分。因此，該交易具有某種一次性的保留基礎。這是4000萬美元的一部分。

I would say most of the new originations that we produced under the guise of these committed capital deals in Q2 are sort of on track and at par, if you will. The majority of the upside that we have between the $40 million that we invested and the $50 million that we're sort of assessing or forecasting, it has to do with how the back book itself was priced and how it was expected to perform. And it is, in fact, beating those expectations.

我想說的是，如果你願意的話，我們在第二季度以這些承諾資本交易為幌子生產的大多數新產品都在某種程度上步入正軌並且處於同等水平。我們投資的 4000 萬美元和我們評估或預測的 5000 萬美元之間的大部分上漲空間都與賬本本身的定價方式以及預期的表現有關。事實上，它超出了這些預期。

So it's less, I would say, a reflection of new origination, more a reflection of the back book, which is a pretty sizable portion of that $40 million. I guess the other implication is, as you think about how that might grow in the future, it certainly won't grow at a clip of $40 million a quarter based on the agreements we have in place.

因此，我想說，它更多地反映了舊書，而不是新創作的反映，這在這 4000 萬美元中佔據了相當大的比例。我想另一個含義是，當你考慮未來如何增長時，根據我們現有的協議，它肯定不會以每季度 4000 萬美元的速度增長。

Okay. That's super helpful. Quick follow-up. So the take rates, presumably from the mix shift in funding, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that the take rate holds or even gets better going forward? Just want to confirm that.

好的。這非常有幫助。快速跟進。因此，採用率可能來自資金的混合變化，假設採用率保持不變甚至未來變得更好並不是沒有道理的？只是想確認一下。

I guess, in aggregate, you can see that we've sort of guided to a relatively flat contribution margin next quarter, maybe marginally lower. And so I think you could probably infer from that, that our take rates, we're assuming that they're going to be roughly stable to this quarter. In the medium to longer term, as Dave said, we would expect with a normalizing economy for our take rates to slowly subside.

我想，總的來說，你可以看到我們下季度的貢獻率相對持平，甚至可能略低。因此，我認為您可能可以從中推斷出，我們的收取率，我們假設它們將在本季度大致穩定。正如戴夫所說，從中長期來看，我們預計隨著經濟正常化，我們的收費率將緩慢下降。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

好的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

And we have time for 1 more question, and we will go to Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

我們還有時間回答 1 個問題，我們將請大西洋股票公司的西蒙·克林奇 (Simon Clinch) 提問。

I was actually wondering, maybe, Dave, if you could talk a bit more about the parallel time and curve calibration. Because I guess, I'm not the most tech-savvy person, and it sounded an awful lot like back testing to me, but you say it isn't. So I'll be really interested, so how it differs or why isn't it back testing? And why you -- I guess, what this really means in terms of your ability to capture the next wave of -- well, actually manage through the next cycle that we see in a much better fashion than you have done in the last couple of years.

我實際上想知道，戴夫，你是否可以多談談並行時間和曲線校準。因為我想，我不是最精通技術的人，這對我來說聽起來很像回溯測試，但你說事實並非如此。所以我真的很感興趣，那麼它有何不同或者為什麼不進行回測？為什麼你——我想，這對於你捕捉下一波浪潮的能力來說真正意味著什麼——好吧，實際上我們以比你在過去幾個週期中所做的更好的方式管理下一個週期。年。

Yes. Sure, Simon. I mean, it ultimately comes down to being able to calibrate a model as quickly as possible, which really just leaps you into developing the next model. And so at the heart of it, it's about model development speed. But the way it generally works is -- a back test is when you -- you apply a new model to a bunch of old loans and see if it can accurately predict their outcome. I mean, that's sort of the way that models are developed in the first place, is -- is something like a very large back test. It's essentially what AI training is.

是的。當然，西蒙。我的意思是，最終歸結為能夠盡快校準模型，這實際上只會讓您開始開發下一個模型。因此，其核心在於模型開發速度。但它通常的工作方式是——回溯測試是當你——你將一個新模型應用於一堆舊貸款，看看它是否能夠準確地預測它們的結果。我的意思是，這就是模型開發的方式，就像一個非常大的回溯測試。這本質上就是人工智能培訓。

But in this case, what we're actually doing is not predicting the past, but predicting the future for loans that a different model had originated. And so what that really means, as I said earlier, normally, if you have 36-month loans, if you want to get accuracy, see the performance of the model to the entire timing curve, you need to wait 36 months, of course. But if you have a diverse set of loans that were originated in all sorts of times in the past several years, even in the first month, you're getting observations into all 36 months of the timing curve. And that's because you have re-underwritten model -- loans that were originally done under a different model. But you're not predicting the past, you're predicting what they'll do in the next month and the month after that.

但在這種情況下，我們實際上所做的不是預測過去，而是預測不同模型產生的貸款的未來。那麼這真正意味著什麼，正如我之前所說，通常情況下，如果你有36 個月的貸款，如果你想獲得準確性，看到模型在整個時間曲線上的表現，你當然需要等待36 個月。但是，如果您有一組不同的貸款，這些貸款是在過去幾年的各個時間產生的，即使是在第一個月，您也會對時間曲線的所有 36 個月進行觀察。那是因為你有重新承保的模式——最初是在不同模式下完成的貸款。但你不是在預測過去，而是在預測他們在下個月和下個月會做什麼。

So that's what's really unique about it. It is a true model. It is predicting future performance of loans, but it's predicting the future of loans that it didn't originally -- was not originally used to originate. And that's kind of the magic of it, is it just gives you a lot more data about the performance of your loans, specifically about the timing curve than you could get -- which would normally, again, take much longer time. And that's the heart of it. It's a very novel notion. It helps you have a very clear understanding of how your model is performing very, very quickly. And that all goes towards speed.

這就是它的獨特之處。這是一個真實的模型。它正在預測貸款的未來表現，但它預測的是它最初沒有預測的貸款的未來——最初不是用來發起的。這就是它的魔力，它只是為您提供了更多有關貸款表現的數據，特別是有關時間曲線的數據，而這通常會花費更長的時間。這就是它的核心。這是一個非常新穎的概念。它可以幫助您非常非常快速地非常清楚地了解模型的執行情況。而這一切都朝著速度的方向發展。

Okay. Great. I might have go back to school on that one. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。我可能會因為那件事而回學校。謝謝。

We might try to write something up on this to get -- for the -- for the nerds who really want to dig deep and to have something like this works. We'll probably try to put something out there.

我們可能會嘗試寫一些關於這個的東西，以供那些真正想要深入挖掘並讓這樣的東西發揮作用的書呆子們使用。我們可能會嘗試把一些東西放在那裡。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will turn the conference back to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我將把會議轉回戴夫·吉魯亞德（Dave Girouard）發表任何補充或結束語。

Right. Thanks to everybody for joining us today. I'm confident that financial services and lending in particular will be one of the bright shining stars for AI in the coming years and in the coming decades. And we believe there's no company better positioned to lead that transformation than Upstart. So thanks for joining us today. We'll see you next time.

正確的。感謝大家今天加入我們。我相信，金融服務，尤其是貸款，將成為未來幾年和未來幾十年人工智能最耀眼的明星之一。我們相信，沒有哪家公司比 Upstart 更有能力引領這一轉型。感謝您今天加入我們。我們下次見。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。