Upstart Holdings Inc (UPST) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Upstart fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎參加 Upstart 公司 2025 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Chelsea Williams, Investor Relations. Chelsea, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係部的切爾西威廉斯。切爾西，請繼續。

Thank you. Welcome to the Upstart earnings call for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. With me on today's call are Dave Girouard, our Co-Founder and CEO; Paul Gu, our Co-Founder and CTO; and Sanjay Datta, our CFO.

謝謝。歡迎參加 Upstart 公司 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有：我們的共同創辦人兼執行長 Dave Girouard；我們的共同創辦人兼技術長 Paul Gu；以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Datta。

During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, which include statements about our outlook and business strategy. These statements are based on our expectations and beliefs as of today, which are subject to a variety of risks uncertainties and assumptions and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future performance.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明，其中包括關於我們前景和業務策略的聲明。這些聲明是基於我們截至今日的預期和信念，但受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響，不應被視為對未來業績的保證。

Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our SEC filings. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. Our discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for our GAAP results.

由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。除法律另有規定外，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。我們的討論將包括非GAAP財務指標，這些指標不能取代我們的GAAP績效。

Reconciliations of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in our earnings materials, which are available on our IR website. Before I turn the call over to Dave, please note that concurrent with today's earnings release, we also issued a press release regarding our leadership evolution. Management will address these plans during today's conference call.

您可以在我們的獲利資料中找到我們歷史GAAP與非GAAP績效的調節表，這些資料可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在我將電話轉交給戴夫之前，請注意，在今天發布收益報告的同時，我們也發布了一份關於我們領導層更迭的新聞稿。管理層將在今天的電話會議上討論這些計劃。

With that, Dave, over to you.

那麼，戴夫，該你了。

Thanks, Chelsea. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I want to start today with what most of you have heard by now. I'm super excited to announce that on May 1, my cofounder, Paul, will become Upstart's next CEO.

謝謝你，切爾西。大家下午好。感謝您的參與。今天我想先從你們大多數人現在可能已經聽說的內容開始。我非常興奮地宣布，5月1日，我的共同創辦人保羅將成為Upstart的下一任執行長。

While I'll continue on to my role as Upstarts Executive Chairman. Why now? Well, in a few weeks, as hard as it is for me to believe, I'll celebrate my 60th birthday. And for more than five years, we've talked about this milestone as the right time frame for Paul to step into the CEO role at Upstart. I can't imagine a succession plan more thoroughly considered or executed with any finer level of detail than what we've done at upstart in the last few years to prepare Paul and the company for this day.

我將繼續擔任 Upstarts 執行主席一職。為什麼是現在？雖然我很難相信，但再過幾週我就要慶祝我的60歲生日了。五年來，我們一直認為這是保羅擔任 Upstart 執行長的合適時機。我無法想像還有比我們在過去幾年為保羅和公司做好充分準備，迎接這一天而製定的繼任計劃更加周全、執行更加細緻的方案了。

As I said in the press announcement, Paul and I have been building Upstart together side by side for the last 14 years, and I expect we'll continue to build it together for the next 14 or even longer. When we cofounded the company, Paul was barely old enough to drink, and I was older than his parents. So this transition is an incredibly rare opportunity to have a founder-led company for decades to come.

正如我在新聞稿中所說，在過去的 14 年裡，我和 Paul 一直並肩打造 Upstart，我預計我們將在未來的 14 年甚至更長時間內繼續共同打造它。我們共同創辦公司時，保羅剛到法定飲酒年齡，而我的年紀比他的父母還要大。因此，這種轉型為未來幾十年擁有一家由創辦人領導的公司提供了一個極其難得的機會。

To be clear, I'm not going anywhere and expect to be quite involved with Upstart. Beyond my role as upstart's Executive Chairman, I'll continue to help shape the company's strategic direction and important initiatives. I want to thank all of you for this opportunity. Building and leading upstart has been the experience of a lifetime, second only to the life of built with my amazing wife Tiffany and our two incredible children, Jackson and Triston.

需要說明的是，我不會離開，並且預計會深度參與 Upstart 的各項工作。除了擔任這家新創公司的執行董事長之外，我還會繼續幫助塑造公司的策略方向和重要舉措。我要感謝大家給我這個機會。創建和領導新創公司是我一生中最寶貴的經歷，僅次於與我了不起的妻子蒂芙尼和我們兩個了不起的孩子傑克遜和特里斯坦一起生活的經歷。

In particular, I want to thank Upstart employees past and present. It's been an honor to work alongside you through ups and downs, whether a good day or otherwise, it's been an experience I will always cherish. I couldn't be more optimistic or excited about the next phase of Upstart.

我特別要感謝 Upstart 的所有員工，包括過去和現在的員工。能夠與您並肩工作，無論順境逆境，都是我的榮幸。這段經歷我將永遠珍藏。我對Upstart的下一階段充滿樂觀與興奮。

Some time ago, Paul said to me that most of the trillions of dollars in interest paid by borrowers in this world is unnecessary in the age of AI. So our mission is a glorious one, and it's one requiring determination and perseverance not just for years, but for decades. I'm confident that in due time, under Paul's leadership, we'll look back with nostalgia at our first 14 years as the early days at upstart.

不久前，保羅對我說，在人工智慧時代，全世界借款人支付的數萬億美元利息大部分都是不必要的。因此，我們的使命是光榮的，它需要我們不僅在幾年內，而且在幾十年內保持決心和毅力。我相信，在保羅的領導下，假以時日，我們會懷念我們創業之初的14年。

Now to move on to our regularly scheduled update. I'm proud of all the upstart team accomplished in 2025. We grew originations by 86% and revenues by 64% and while growing head count just 18%, a ratio of any business would die for, and we reestablished upstart as a strongly profitable business. This growth in profitability was driven first and foremost by a significant market share gain in our personal loan product where Upstart grew originations 75% year-on-year.

接下來進入我們的例行更新環節。我為這支新興團隊在 2025 年所取得的所有成就感到自豪。我們的貸款發放量增加了 86%，營收成長了 64%，而員工人數僅成長了 18%（這是任何企業都夢寐以求​​的比例），我們重新將 upstart 打造成了一家盈利能力強勁的企業。獲利能力的成長首先得益於我們在個人貸款產品中市場佔有率的顯著提升，Upstart 的貸款發放量較去年同期成長了 75%。

But just as importantly, our newer products had an incredible year with originations for auto and home, both growing 5 times year-on-year and originations for both actually accelerated in the fourth quarter. Even with this Epic growth across all three product categories, we reduced loans on our balance sheet by 20% in Q4 and expect this trend to continue. With 70% of funding for auto and home loans originated in Q4 coming from 11 different partners and an additional 13 signed up for the coming year, we've officially begun a new era as the everything store for credit.

但同樣重要的是，我們的新產品在過去一年取得了令人矚目的成績，汽車和房屋貸款的發放量均同比增長了 5 倍，而且在第四季度，兩者的發放量實際上都加速增長。即使三大產品類別都實現瞭如此巨大的增長，我們在第四季度仍將資產負債表上的貸款減少了 20%，並預計這一趨勢將繼續下去。第四季汽車和房屋貸款資金的 70% 來自 11 個不同的合作夥伴，另有 13 個合作夥伴已簽約加入來年，我們正式開啟了作為信貸一站式商店的新時代。

Looking forward to 2026, I feel like Upstart has emerged from a multiyear rebuild and begins the new year from a position of unprecedented strength. In addition to radically improving our AI in the last three years, we've also entirely rebuilt our capital supply for resiliency and competitiveness. And as we wrapped up 2025 powered by excellent credit performance and rapidly improving conversion rates in the last few years, we finally took the last steps to launch our home, auto and small dollar credit products into the funding markets.

展望 2026 年，我覺得 Upstart 已經完成了多年的重建，並以空前的實力開啟了新的一年。除了在過去三年中大幅改善我們的人工智慧之外，我們還徹底重建了我們的資本供應，以增強韌性和競爭力。在過去幾年裡，我們憑藉著出色的信貸表現和快速提高的轉換率，在 2025 年即將結束之際，我們終於邁出了最後一步，將我們的房屋、汽車和小額信貸產品推向融資市場。

Upstart is the leader in providing the best rates and the best process across products and to consumers across the credit spectrum. In 2026, we'll be about increasing our lead in establishing our brand in these dimensions. All of this sets us out for building incredible franchises in each of these product areas for years to come.

Upstart 致力於為所有信貸水準的消費者提供最優惠的利率和最佳的流程，並在各類產品中處於領先地位。2026年，我們將致力於在這些方面進一步提升我們的品牌領先地位。所有這些都為我們在未來幾年內在各個產品領域打造出色的特許經營品牌奠定了基礎。

In the coming quarters, I expect AI-powered lending led by upstart to rapidly gain market share across these enormous unsecured home and auto segments as well as additional lending categories in the near future. We've been building the teams, the skills and the technologies to deploy AI in lending for more than a dozen years, and I believe we are peerless in this regard.

在接下來的幾個季度裡，我預計由新興公司引領的人工智慧貸款業務將在龐大的無抵押房屋和汽車貸款領域迅速獲得市場份額，並在不久的將來擴展到其他貸款類別。十多年來，我們一直在建立團隊、培養技能、研發技術，以在貸款領域部署人工智慧，我相信我們在這方面是無與倫比的。

With this strong foundation and expansive TAM in place, I want to share today that we project I'll start to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 35% for the next three years. In addition to sharing longer-term guidance, we're also refreshing how we share near-term financial information with the markets. Starting today, we've begun to publish the monthly transaction volume on our platform at the beginning of each subsequent month, providing a fresher look at how originations are trending.

憑藉著這堅實的基礎和廣闊的潛在市場，我今天想與大家分享，我們預計未來三年我的複合年增長率將達到 35%。除了分享長期指引外，我們也在改善與市場分享短期財務資訊的方式。從今天開始，我們將在每個月的月初在我們的平台上發布月度交易量，以便更清楚地了解貸款發放的趨勢。

Beyond that, we'll also focus on providing annual guidance, which we expect to update as we report each quarterly earnings. The opportunity to radically transform access to credit with AI is unimaginably large, and we want to offer the world a court-sized seat as this future unfolds.

除此之外，我們還將專注於提供年度業績指引，並計劃在公佈每季收益時進行更新。利用人工智慧徹底改變信用獲取方式的機會是難以想像的，我們希望在這個未來展開之際，為世界提供一個重要的平台。

With these upgrades to our disclosures and guidance, investors can better understand both the near-term dynamics and the long-term potential of upstart. With all that said, I want to say welcome to the new era of upstart.

透過對披露資訊和指導意見的這些升級，投資者可以更好地了解這家新創公司的近期動態和長期潛力。綜上所述，我想說，歡迎來到創業新時代。

With that, I'll turn things over to Paul Go, my Co-Founder and upstarts next Chief Executive Officer. Paul?

接下來，我將把麥克風交給我的共同創辦人兼下一任執行長 Paul Go。保羅？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone. I've had the chance to get to know many of you over the last year, and I'm excited to spend some time today sharing how I see the business as we head into the next chapter. I'm incredibly grateful to have had the opportunity to learn from Dave these past 14 years. I got to work alongside Dave finding our very first customers, onboarding the first outside capital for loans evolving from one office to multiple to digital first, taking the company public, weathering the boom and bust of the COVID stimulus era and doing virtually everything else needed to build the upstart of today.

謝謝你，戴夫，大家下午好。在過去的一年裡，我有機會認識了你們中的許多人，今天我很高興能花點時間與大家分享我對公司未來發展的看法。我非常感激過去14年有機會向戴夫學習。我有幸與 Dave 一起尋找我們的第一批客戶，引入第一筆外部貸款資金，將公司從一個辦公室發展到多個辦公室，再到數位化優先，帶領公司上市，經歷了 COVID 刺激時代的繁榮與蕭條，並做了幾乎所有其他事情，才成就了今天的這家新創公司。

Through that long journey, we built what I consider the very best team and technology and credit. Today, I have the great fortune to take the baton from that enviable starting point. I am also extremely excited to welcome Sanjay, Grant and Andrea to their new roles. Sanjay will serve as President and Chief Capital Officer; Andrea is joining us as CFO, and Grant is returning to upstart as CTO.

在那段漫長的歷程中，我們打造了我認為最優秀的團隊、技術和信用體系。今天，我有幸從這個令人羨慕的起點接過接力棒。我非常高興地歡迎 Sanjay、Grant 和 Andrea 擔任他們的新職位。Sanjay 將擔任總裁兼首席資本長；Andrea 將加入我們擔任財務長；Grant 將重返 upstart 擔任首席技術長。

So Andrea and Grant have long been key leaders in upstart's history, and Andrea is an incredibly talented finance leader with a background in complex novel business models. I look forward to partnering with them to show the world the potential of AI-powered credit. As Dave said, Upstart is a far longer company today than it was one year ago or for that matter at any point in our history. We always judge ourselves by the trifecta of growth profits and credit performance and 2025 saw tremendous progress on all three.

因此，Andrea 和 Grant 長期以來一直是 upstart 公司歷史上的關鍵領導者，Andrea 是一位才華橫溢的財務領導者，擁有複雜新穎的商業模式背景。我期待與他們合作，向世界展示人工智慧驅動的信貸的潛力。正如戴夫所說，如今的Upstart公司比一年前，甚至比公司歷史上的任何時期都要長得多。我們總是以成長、利潤和信貸表現這三方面來衡量自身，而 2025 年我們在這三方面都取得了巨大的進步。

Looking specifically at the Q4 results, we grew total loan origination dollars 52% year-over-year. This function of finding strong product market fit in our new products, but it's also a testament to the persistent and large opportunity for us to grow with and win share in our personal loan business, where origination dollars grew 41% year-on-year in its 12th year of operation.

具體來看第四季業績，我們的貸款發放總額年增了 52%。這項功能旨在為我們的新產品找到強大的產品市場契合度，同時也證明了我們在個人貸款業務中擁有持續且巨大的成長機會，並有機會贏得市場份額。該業務營運的第 12 年，貸款發放額年增了 41%。

Because of our strong unit economics and operating leverage, that growth in revenue flipped our net income from negative $2.8 million in Q4 last year to positive $19 million this past quarter. We expect revenue growth to continue outpacing expense growth and make 2026 in even more profitable year.

由於我們強勁的單位經濟效益和營運槓桿作用，營收的成長使我們的淨利潤從去年第四季的負 280 萬美元轉為上一季的正 1,900 萬美元。我們預計收入成長將持續超過支出成長，使 2026 年成為獲利能力更強的一年。

I want to pause and touch on our contribution margins. You'll notice that these have declined over the past year. This is expected and intentional due to two dynamics, both of which we're actually excited about. First, we have grown rapidly in secured products and prime borrowers, segments which come with lower take rates but dramatically larger market sizes. Second, we increasingly have the financial ability to consider the long-term value of acquiring a customer and the reputation value of saving them more money than anyone else.

我想暫停一下，談談我們的貢獻毛利率。你會注意到，這些指標在過去一年中有所下降。這是意料之中且有意為之的，原因有二，而我們對這兩種情況都感到非常興奮。首先，我們在擔保產品和優質借款人領域實現了快速成長，這些領域的貸款發放率較低，但市場規模卻大得多。其次，我們越來越有能力考慮獲取客戶的長期價值以及為客戶節省比任何人都多的錢所帶來的聲譽價值。

Together, these are putting us on a path to become the best and most trusted place for every American to fulfill all of their credit needs. Setting aside a couple of transitional and accounting factors specific to Q4, we expect to be able to accomplish this while still growing absolute contribution profits nicely with the business, albeit with a modest lag to revenue. The growth in 2025 also came alongside another year of exceptional credit performance.

這些舉措共同使我們走上了成為每個美國人滿足所有信貸需求的最佳、最值得信賴的平台的道路。撇開第四季度特有的幾個過渡和會計因素不談，我們預計能夠在實現這一目標的同時，隨著業務的穩步增長，實現絕對貢獻利潤的增長，儘管收入增長會略有滯後。2025年的成長也得益於另一個信貸表現優異的年份。

The average return of our last 12 quarterly vintages of loans exceeds that of US treasuries by 608 basis points with every individual vintage exceeding treasury by at least 270 basis points. This combination of scale, consistency and returns is only made possible by our use of AI lending, and we believe will be a growing draw for capital partners, banks and credit unions.

我們最近 12 個季度貸款的平均回報率比美國國債高出 608 個基點，每個季度的回報率都比國債高出至少 270 個基點。規模、穩定性和回報的結合，只有透過我們對人工智慧貸款的使用才能實現，我們相信這將對資本合作夥伴、銀行和信用社產生越來越大的吸引力。

We achieved this combination of record revenue and consistent credit performance with the upstart macro index in the 1.4 for most of the past year and quarter. By comparison, during our prior peak revenue year of 2021, UMI averaged around 0.8, meaning that statistically identical loans were 43% less likely to default back then as they are today, that our 2025 results surpassed 2021, in spite of that UMI backdrop, is a strong testament to the power of our AI first strategy. Improving separation and automation quarter after quarter is a recipe for delivering results over a multiyear window, regardless of how macro moves the short run.

在過去一年和本季的大部分時間裡，我們憑藉新興宏觀指數 1.4 的走勢，實現了創紀錄的收入和穩定的信貸表現。相較之下，在我們之前的 2021 年收入高峰期，UMI 平均約為 0.8，這意味著當時統計上相同的貸款違約的可能性比現在低 43%。儘管 UMI 處於低位，但我們 2025 年的業績仍然超過了 2021 年，這有力地證明了我們 AI 優先策略的強大力量。無論宏觀經濟短期走勢如何，持續改善分離和自動化都是在多年內取得成效的秘訣。

Now I want to quickly highlight a few of those technology advances from Q4. First, we launched two major model updates, Model 24 and Model 25. Model 25 added a significant number of consumers who never took loans from the upstart ecosystem to our training data set by joining past applicant data to similar loans taken outside upstart. This adds a rich diversity to our training data set and better positions our model to understand consumers whom we historically did not approve or win.

現在我想快速介紹一下第四季的一些技術進步。首先，我們推出了兩款主要車型更新，即 Model 24 和 Model 25。模型 25 透過將過去的申請人資料與在 upstart 之外獲得的類似貸款相結合，向我們的訓練資料集中添加了大量從未從 upstart 生態系統獲得貸款的消費者。這為我們的訓練資料集增加了豐富的多樣性，使我們的模型更能理解我們過去沒有認可或贏得的消費者。

These models increased our measured separation accuracy advantage over our benchmark textbook model by about 1 percentage point to 172.2% on previously observed upstart loans, but had an accuracy boost more than 100 times as large on those loans we did not previously win. Second, we redesigned our partnership models and integrated new data sources into our partner APIs together driving 24% more channel originations quarter-on-quarter, while lowering latency by 34%.

這些模型使我們測得的分離準確率優勢相對於基準教科書模型提高了約 1 個百分點，達到 172.2%，尤其是在之前觀察到的新興貸款方面；但對於我們之前沒有贏得的貸款，準確率的提升幅度更是超過了 100 倍。其次，我們重新設計了合作夥伴模式，並將新的資料來源整合到合作夥伴 API 中，推動通路轉換率環比成長 24%，同時將延遲降低了 34%。

Finally, we launched a brand-new architecture of our verification models that lowers default rates by 0.8% and launched our first voice LLM for when manual verification calls are required. 2025 was also a year our new products found product market fit. In our auto business, we doubled the number of live lending rooftops for the third quarter in a row and began applying AI for the first time to our auto secured personal loan product.

最後，我們推出了全新的驗證模型架構，將違約率降低了0.8%，並推出了首個語音LLM（本地生命週期管理）系統，用於需要人工驗證的通話。 2025年也是我們新產品找到市場契合點的一年。在我們的汽車業務中，我們連續第三個季度將即時貸款點的數量翻了一番，並首次將人工智慧應用於我們的汽車擔保個人貸款產品。

In our dealerships, we launched the ability for car buyers to sign their loan contracts remotely and begin automating document verification processes with LLM, thereby reducing funding times by 12%. As a result, our combined auto originations in Q4 were up 56% sequentially and 340% year-on-year.

在我們的經銷店中，我們推出了購車者遠端簽署貸款合約的功能，並開始使用 LLM 實現文件驗證流程的自動化，從而將融資時間縮短了 12%。因此，我們第四季的汽車貸款發放總額較上季成長 56%，年增 340%。

In our home business, we tripled the percentage of HELOCs using automated underwriting and rapidly scaled our campaigns to cross-sell the product to homeowners in our existing member base by integrating property data. As a result, home originations in Q4 were up 70% sequentially, totaling 350% year-on-year.

在我們的家庭業務中，我們透過自動化承保將房屋淨值信用額度 (HELOC) 的比例提高了三倍，並透過整合房產數據，迅速擴大了我們的行銷活動，向我們現有會員群中的房主交叉銷售該產品。因此，第四季房屋貸款發放量較上季成長 70%，年增 350%。

You may have noticed that I called out technology wins in nearly every area of the business I discussed. This isn't because I'm partial to technology by background, though I am, but rather because technology is the story of how we're building a differentiated business for the long term at upstart.

您可能已經注意到，在我討論的幾乎每個業務領域，我都提到了技術方面的優勢。這並非因為我本身就對科技有偏好（雖然我的確如此），而是因為科技正是我們在 upstart 打造差異化長期業務的核心所在。

In Q4, the scale of our training data crossed $100 million borrower repayment events for the first time, 14 years after we started the company. The next $100 million repayment events will come dramatically faster. And include data on almost every major category of consumer credit. We believe that proprietary training data, when combined with the ever better learning algorithms our team develops drives a long-run growth trend that persists independent of any ups and downs of the macroeconomy or competitive environment.

在公司成立 14 年後，第四季我們的訓練資料規模首次突破了 1 億美元的借款人還款事件。接下來的1億美元還款事件將大幅加快發生。並涵蓋幾乎所有主要消費信貸類別的數據。我們相信，專有的訓練數據，加上我們團隊不斷改進的學習演算法，能夠推動長期成長趨勢，這種趨勢不受宏觀經濟或競爭環境任何起伏的影響。

We have executed against the strategy and observed its results for more than a decade. And in looking at our technology road map now have every reason to expect that compounding to continue for many years to come.

十多年來，我們一直執行該策略並觀察其結果。從我們目前的技術路線圖來看，我們完全有理由預期這種成長動能將在未來很多年持續下去。

With that, I'll turn things over to Sanjay. Sanjay?

接下來，我將把工作交給桑傑。桑傑？

Thanks, Paul, and good afternoon to all for listening in with us unless you are a Axon. Looking back on what we believed and messaged almost exactly one year ago today, I am proud to say that I've Upstart called its shot in 2025. Last February, we guided to $920 million of fee revenue and $1 billion in total revenue on the year. We finished the year with $950 million in fee revenue and $1.04 billion in total revenue. We are aiming for positive net income and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin. We ended at positive $54 million in net income and a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin.

謝謝保羅，也祝各位下午好，謝謝你們收聽我們的節目，除非你們是Axon用戶。回顧我們差不多一年前的今天所相信和傳達的訊息，我很自豪地說，Upstart 在 2025 年的預測是正確的。去年二月，我們預測全年手續費收入將達到 9.2 億美元，總收入將達到 10 億美元。我們全年手續費收入為 9.5 億美元，總收入為 10.4 億美元。我們的目標是實現正淨利潤和 18% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。我們最終實現淨利潤 5,400 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%。

Notwithstanding some of the inevitable twists and turns over the course of the year, 2025 landed right on schedule. Overall, for the year, we grew our total revenue by 64%, and we held our fixed expense base to a mere 5% growth, a nice flex of our operating leverage, which allowed us to more than 20 times our adjusted EBITDA from $11 million to $230 million, despite concurrently investing in the scale up of multiple new early-stage products.

儘管這一年不可避免地出現了一些曲折，但2025年還是如期到來了。總體而言，本年度我們的總收入增長了 64%，而固定支出基數僅增長了 5%，這很好地體現了我們的營運槓桿優勢，使我們的調整後 EBITDA 從 1100 萬美元增長到 2.3 億美元，增長了 20 多倍，儘管我們同時還投資於多個早期新產品的規模化生產。

We took meaningful steps to reduce balance sheet exposure in Q4, while simultaneously graduating three new product categories from their R&D phase and almost quadrupling their volume year-on-year. We added new funding sources for our growing product portfolio in Q4 and converted several of our existing funding partnerships into multiproduct relationships.

我們在第四季度採取了切實有效的措施來降低資產負債表風險，同時將三個新產品類別從研發階段推進到市場，並且其銷售量同比增長了近四倍。第四季度，我們為不斷成長的產品組合增加了新的資金來源，並將幾個現有的融資合作關係轉變為多產品合作關係。

Notably, for auto lending across both refinance and retail, the most mature of our new bets. 92% of our Q4 originations were funded via third parties, supported by the continued expansion of our institutional and lender funding relationships.

值得注意的是，在汽車貸款領域，無論是再融資或零售，我們都取得了最成熟的進展。第四季度，我們92%的貸款發放都透過第三方機構完成，這得益於我們與機構和貸款方融資關係的持續拓展。

In Home Lending, we have similarly signed our initial institutional and lender partnerships who have collectively taken a majority of our Q4 HELOC production and expect to attain third-party funding levels similar to that in our auto segment in the near future.

在房屋貸款方面，我們也同樣與機構和貸款方簽署了初步的合作關係，這些機構和貸款方共同獲得了我們第四季度房屋淨值信用額度貸款的大部分份額，我們預計在不久的將來，第三方融資水平將達到與汽車貸款業務類似的水平。

Taken together, these developments have allowed us to accelerate new product growth rates in Q4 while simultaneously reducing our balance sheet holdings by 20% quarter-over-quarter. All in all, we are entering 2026 feeling enthusiastic about the momentum of our financial performance as well as the strength of our capital supply.

綜合來看，這些進展使我們能夠在第四季度加快新產品成長率，同時將資產負債表持有量季減 20%。總而言之，我們對2026年的財務表現動能以及資本供應實力都感到非常樂觀。

With this as context, here are some of the financial highlights from Q4 of 2025. Total revenue for Q4 came in at roughly $296 million, up 35% year-on-year and 7% sequentially. This overall number included revenue from fees of approximately $265 million which was up 33% year-on-year and above quarterly guidance, reflecting the impact of recent underwriting model launches.

基於上述背景，以下是 2025 年第四季的一些財務亮點。第四季總營收約 2.96 億美元，年增 35%，季增 7%。這一總數字包括約 2.65 億美元的手續費收入，年增 33%，高於季度預期，反映了近期推出的核保模式的影響。

Within fee revenues, our servicing revenue stream continued its steady growth clip at 28% year-over-year. driven by higher origination volumes and improving servicing fair value marks. Net interest income of approximately $31 million, ahead of guidance by $5 million, resulted from continuing strong return performance on a loan balance that remained elevated during part of the quarter. As discussed, we made progress reducing balance sheet exposure by quarter end and would expect the contribution of net interest income to moderate as those efforts continue.

在手續費收入方面，我們的服務收入持續保持穩定成長，年增 28%，這主要得益於更高的貸款發放量和服務公允價值的提高。淨利息收入約為 3,100 萬美元，比預期高出 500 萬美元，這得益於本季度部分時間貸款餘額保持高位後持續強勁的回報表現。如同先前所討論的，我們在季度末降低了資產負債表風險敞口，隨著這些努力的持續，預計淨利息收入的貢獻將會放緩。

The volume of loan transactions across our platform is approximately $456,000, up 86% from the prior year and 6% sequentially, representing approximately 307,000 new borrowers. Transaction growth was driven by continued model improvements and continued growth across our new products. Average loan size of approximately $7,000 was 5% higher than the prior quarter, reflecting an increasing mix of nonpersonal loan products, which generally carry larger loan sizes.

我們平台上的貸款交易量約為 456,000 美元，比上年增長 86%，環比增長 6%，約有 307,000 名新借款人。交易量的成長得益於產品型號的不斷改進和新產品的持續成長。平均貸款規模約為 7,000 美元，比上一季增加了 5%，這反映出非個人貸款產品的比例不斷增加，而這類貸款的規模通常較大。

Our contribution margin, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees, minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees came in at 53% in Q4, down 4 percentage points from the prior quarter and in line with guidance. The sequential decline primarily reflects the increased weighting of lifetime value in our pricing calculations, which results in lower take rates but higher future profits.

我們的貢獻毛利率（非GAAP指標，定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，佔費用收入的百分比）在第四季度為53%，比上一季度下降了4個百分點，與預期一致。這一環比下降主要反映了我們在定價計算中對終身價值的重視程度提高，這導致成交率降低，但未來利潤增加。

In total, GAAP operating expenses were around $277 million in Q4, up 9% sequentially from Q3. Expenses that are considered variable relating to borrower acquisition verification and servicing, were up 11% sequentially relative to the 12% increase in the volume of loan transactions. Fixed expenses were up 7% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting continued investment to support the growth of the business.

第四季 GAAP 營運費用總計約 2.77 億美元，較第三季較上季成長 9%。與借款人獲取、核實和服務相關的可變支出環比增長 11%，而貸款交易量環比增長 12%。固定支出較上季成長 7%，反映出為支持業務成長而進行的持續投資。

Q4 net income was approximately positive $19 million, ahead of expectations and reflecting outperformance on the top line, alongside continued discipline across our cost structure. This result builds on our return to GAAP profitability in the second quarter of 2025 and reflects continued progress in the current credit environment. GAAP earnings per share was $0.17 and based on a diluted weighted average share count of $112 million.

第四季淨利潤約為 1900 萬美元，超出預期，這反映了營收的超預期表現，以及我們在成本結構方面持續保持的嚴格控制。這一結果建立在我們 2025 年第二季恢復 GAAP 獲利能力的基礎上，並反映了我們在當前信貸環境下的持續進步。GAAP每股收益為0.17美元，以1.12億股稀釋加權平均股數計算。

Adjusted EBITDA was roughly $64 million, in line with expectations. We completed the full year with total revenue above $1 billion, up 64% from 2024, a contribution margin of 56% and positive adjusted EBITDA of $230 million, representing a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin versus a margin of 2% a year earlier. We ended Q4 with approximately $985 million of loans held directly on our balance sheet, down from $1.2 billion in Q3. The sequential reduction reflects loan transaction activity during the quarter alongside continued progress transitioning funding for new products over third-party capital.

調整後 EBITDA 約 6,400 萬美元，符合預期。我們全年總營收超過 10 億美元，比 2024 年成長 64%，貢獻毛利率為 56%，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.3 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%，而去年同期利潤率為 2%。第四季末，我們資產負債表上直接持有的貸款約為 9.85 億美元，低於第三季的 12 億美元。環比下降反映了本季貸款交易活動，以及將新產品資金從第三方資本過渡到貸款資金的持續進展。

As we set up for the year ahead, we are evolving our approach to financial guidance by emphasizing the annual outlook and by focusing on the longer-term trends of the business. To supplement this, as David has mentioned, you will also be able to view more frequent updates on origination volumes that will be published each month at upstart.com/volume.

展望未來一年，我們將改善財務指導方法，更加重視年度展望，並關注業務的長期發展趨勢。此外，正如 David 所提到的，您還可以在 upstart.com/volume 上查看每月發布的更頻繁的出版量更新。

This year, we expect to continue growing our core personal loan business at a healthy clip via consistent model improvements and growth wins. As we increasingly wait the future benefits of customer lifetime value in our loan pricing, we expect that take rates will moderate reducing current contribution margins in return for higher borrower volumes and lifetime profits.

今年，我們預計透過持續的模式改善和成長舉措，我們的核心個人貸款業務將繼續保持健康的成長速度。隨著我們越來越期待客戶終身價值在貸款定價中帶來的未來收益，我們預計貸款利率將趨於緩和，降低當前的利潤貢獻率，以換取更高的借款人數量和終身利潤。

Notwithstanding this dynamic, we expect absolute contribution dollars from our platform to grow at a robust rate which we are aiming to maintain to within at least 5 percentage points of corresponding fee revenue growth. We also expect to continue the rapid scale-up of our new secured product categories in auto and home which taken together, we expect will contribute over $100 million in fee revenue in 2026.

儘管存在這種動態變化，我們預計我們平台的絕對貢獻金額將以強勁的速度增長，我們的目標是將其保持在與相應費用收入增長至少 5 個百分點的範圍內。我們也期望繼續快速擴大我們在汽車和房屋領域的新擔保產品類別，預計到 2026 年，這些產品加起來將貢獻超過 1 億美元的費用收入。

As they reach mature scale and sell-through, we anticipate this category will attain average upfront take rates of around 4% and in addition to average servicing rates of around 2% of outstanding balance on average loan sizes of approximately $30,000. Within those averages, home let lending will tend towards higher upfront take rates, while auto loans will exhibit a higher proportion of ratable servicing revenues over the lifetime of the loans.

隨著規模和銷售的成熟，我們預計該類別的平均預付款率將達到 4% 左右，此外，平均貸款額約為 30,000 美元，平均服務費率將達到未償餘額的 2% 左右。在這些平均值中，房屋租賃貸款往往具有更高的預付率，而汽車貸款在貸款期限內將表現出更高的可分配服務收入比例。

Across both unsecured and secured lending, we aim to continue streamlining our balance sheet. And building new committed multiproduct relationships with lenders and investors alike. And finally, we expect to continue maintaining tight fixed cost discipline and improving operating leverage as we further grow our profit base.

無論在無擔保貸款或擔保貸款方面，我們都致力於繼續精簡資產負債表。與貸款人和投資者建立新的、有針對性的多產品合作關係。最後，我們預計在進一步擴大利潤基礎的同時，將繼續保持嚴格的固定成本控制並提高營運槓桿。

On the macro environment, as per our tradition, we assume a constant default risk environment with the UMI holding study at its current value of around 1.4 to 1.5 and a static interest rate environment as well. More specifically, for 2026 in the aforementioned scenario, we are anticipating total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion, revenue from fees of approximately $1.3 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 21%.

在宏觀環境方面，依照我們的慣例，我們假設違約風險環境保持不變，UMI 持有研究值目前約為 1.4 至 1.5，利率環境也保持不變。更具體地說，在上述情境下，我們預計 2026 年的總營收約為 14 億美元，手續費收入約為 13 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 21%。

Looking even further out, our ambition will be to maintain a relatively steady growth clip over the coming several years, paired with improving margins and operating leverage. For the three-year period spending 2025 to 2028, in particular, we are targeting to maintain a 35% compound annual growth rate in a macro-neutral environment, with a terminal adjusted EBITDA margin of around 25% in 2028.

展望未來，我們的目標是在未來幾年保持相對穩定的成長速度，同時提高利潤率和營運槓桿。特別是對於 2025 年至 2028 年這三年期間，我們的目標是在宏觀經濟中性的環境下保持 35% 的複合年增長率，並在 2028 年實現約 25% 的最終調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

2025 was a year of tremendous effort and perseverance across the company, and I want to thank the teams at Upstart for their continued dedication to the cause. On a personal note, I'm excited and grateful for the opportunity to be a part of this leadership transition and to contribute to the next phase of upstarts journey. I'm also very excited to welcome Andrea to the finance chair starting next month. or she will unquestionably be raising the bar.

2025 年是公司上下付出巨大努力和堅持不懈的一年，我要感謝 Upstart 團隊對這項事業的持續奉獻。就我個人而言，我非常興奮和感激有機會參與這次領導層過渡中，並為這家新興企業下一階段的發展做出貢獻。我也非常高興地歡迎安德里亞下個月起擔任財務主席一職。毫無疑問，她將提高整個團隊的標準。

And on that note, I would like to now pass things back to the operator to kick off the Q&A. Operator?

說到這裡，我現在想把時間交還給操作員，讓他開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Dan Dolev, Mizuho Securities.

Dan Dolev，瑞穗證券。

Hey guys, outstanding quarter like really, really strong congrats. I have a quick question and then a quick follow-up. So growth was really, really strong. in autos and HELOCs in Q4. So how did you manage to reduce the balance sheet loans? And then I have a quick follow-up on that one. Thank you.

嘿，夥計們，這個季度表現非常出色，真的非常棒，恭喜！我有一個簡短的問題，然後還有一個簡短的後續問題。所以，第四季汽車和房屋淨值信貸業務的成長真的非常強勁。那麼，你們是如何減少資產負債表貸款的呢？然後我還有一個關於這個問題的後續問題。謝謝。

Hey, Dan, this is Dave. Yes, thank you. Yes, we were happy. We've been telling the market for a while that the balance sheet loans for the purpose of incubating these newer products and making sure the models were right and beginning to line up partners.

嘿，丹，我是戴夫。是的，謝謝。是的，我們很開心。我們一直向市場表示，資產負債表貸款的目的是為了孵化這些新產品，確保模型正確，並開始尋找合作夥伴。

And we lined up quite a few of them. I think we said 70% of these products were funded by third parties and off our balance sheet. So we've kind of achieved lift off on that now. And when you sort of put all the numbers together, that meant not only really fast growth in both of those product areas. But at the same time, the amount of loans on the balance sheet dropped and we expect that trend to continue.

我們安排了不少人參加。我想我們說過，這些產品中有 70% 是由第三方資助的，不在我們的資產負債表上。所以，我們現在已經基本上取得了進展。當你把所有數據綜合起來看時，這意味著這兩個產品領域不僅成長非常迅速。但與此同時，資產負債表上的貸款金額有所下降，我們預計這一趨勢還會持續。

So it's just a matter of doing what we've told the market we were doing. And even that acceleration we saw in the fourth quarter in both HELOC and in auto, despite that, we were still able to actually reduce the loans in the balance sheet.

所以，我們現在要做的就是履行我們向市場承諾的義務。儘管我們在第四季度看到了房屋淨值信貸和汽車貸款的加速成長，但即便如此，我們仍然能夠實際減少資產負債表中的貸款。

So I think that's a good signal that we're doing what we said. These products are now mature in the market. We have another dozen or so investors or lenders that are going to participate in those parts of our business in 2026. So we're in a great position with them right now.

所以我認為這是一個很好的信號，表明我們正在談論做到。這些產品目前已在市場上成熟。2026年，我們還有十幾位投資者或貸款人將參與我們業務的這些部分。所以我們現在和他們關係很好。

That's amazing. And then a quick follow-up on the UMI guys. Like how much conservatism is built into your UMI guidance? Like can you maybe give us like a rule of thumb, your might gets better than your underwriting should improve dramatically. Something like that, I think, would be helpful. Thank you again.

太棒了。然後快速跟進一下 UMI 的那些人。例如，你們 UMI 的指導方針中融入了多少保守主義元素？例如，您能否給我們一條經驗法則，如果您的信用狀況好轉，您的承保能力應該會大幅提高。我認為那樣做會有幫助。再次感謝。

Yes. Great question. This is Paul speaking. Our guidance always assumes a constant UMI. So we wouldn't necessarily say it's either conservative or aggressive.

是的。問得好。這是保羅在說話。我們的指導始終假設 UMI 為常數。所以我們不能簡單地說它是保守的還是激進的。

It's just really our very best estimate of what the UMI is And the UMI itself is as a reminder to everyone. It is our measure of the background consumer risk when you hold constant, all of the variation in loans, all of the variation in consumers.

這只是我們對 UMI 的最佳估計，而 UMI 本身也是為了提醒大家。它是我們衡量背景消費者風險的指標，前提是排除貸款的所有變化和消費者的所有變化。

And it gives us what we think is the fastest and most precise read on the background level of consumer risk in the economy.

它為我們提供了我們認為最快、最準確的經濟中消費者風險背景水準的讀數。

Thanks, great stuff. Appreciate it.

謝謝，太棒了。謝謝。

Kyle Peterson, Needham.

凱爾彼得森，尼德姆。

Great. Good afternoon. Appreciate you guys taking the questions. I want to start out on the guide. I noticed you guys guided for -- it looks like EBITDA margins to be down a bit in '26. So I want to see, is this a function of like mix as the balance sheet has been run off a little bit, which is obviously like a positive trade-off?

偉大的。午安.感謝各位回答問題。我想開始編寫指南。我注意到你們的預測是——看起來 2026 年 EBITDA 利潤率會略有下降。所以我想看看，這是否與資產負債表的調整有關，因為資產負債表已經有所改善，這顯然是一個正面的權衡結果？

Or are there any like notable investments or something you guys are making in the upcoming year? Just any color there on the EBITDA margins would be very helpful.

或者說，你們在未來一年有沒有什麼值得關注的投資或其他計畫？EBITDA利潤率的任何顏色標註都會很有幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Kyle. Yes. So on the topic of the margins that we guided to, we guided to a contribution -- or sorry, to an adjusted EBITDA margin, but of course, baked in there is an implicit set of assumptions about how contribution margin will move. And in my earlier remarks, I described some changes that we've been expecting and planning for on contribution margins.

是的。謝謝你的提問，凱爾。是的。所以，關於我們給出的利潤率預期，我們預期的是貢獻利潤率——或者抱歉，是調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率，但當然，其中隱含著一系列關於貢獻利潤率將如何變動的假設。在我之前的演講中，我描述了我們一直在預期和計劃對貢獻毛利進行的一些變化。

That's a result of a few different factors, all of those intentional and all of those, we think, actually long term, very healthy for the business. There's basically two different things in there. One is a changing mix where we're expanding into the largest markets for consumer credit.

這是幾個不同因素共同作用的結果，所有這些因素都是有意為之，而且我們認為，從長遠來看，所有這些因素實際上對企業都非常有益。裡面基本上包含兩種不同的東西。一是業務組合的變化，我們正在向最大的消費信貸市場擴張。

These are some of the secured products and these products the loans are much bigger. The profile of the product is different and you tend to have lower take rates in these products, but the TAM that you get access to are just enormous many, many times larger than in just pure unsecured or pure personal loans. So a very good thing for us to have great winning products in those categories.

這些都是有擔保的產品，而且這些產品的貸款額度要大得多。該產品的特點不同，這類產品的成交率往往較低，但其潛在市場規模卻非常龐大，比純粹的無擔保貸款或純粹的個人貸款大得多。所以，在這些類別中擁有優秀的暢銷產品對我們來說是一件非常好的事情。

And the second is that, frankly, I think relative to just the last couple of years, we've gained the ability to be able to take a longer-term view of our customer, the value of acquiring customers, the value of building up our brand and our reputation for being the very best place for consumers to shop for credit.

第二點是，坦白說，我認為相對於過去幾年，我們已經能夠從更長遠的角度看待我們的客戶、獲取客戶的價值、建立品牌和聲譽的價值，使我們成為消費者購買信貸的最佳場所。

And we want to lean into that. We want to press our advantages that we've got in the market in terms of having best rates and best process and really just sort of cement our reputation for having that best credit product for customers, and we think that is going to ultimately be winning in the long term.

我們想順應這股趨勢。我們希望鞏固我們在市場上的優勢，例如最優利率和最佳流程，真正鞏固我們為客戶提供最佳信貸產品的聲譽，我們認為這最終將帶來長期的勝利。

Now in the short term, that both of those things, the change in mix and taking those longer-term considerations into the mix does, of course, have some impact on the margin. But we think ultimately, that's going to be a very good thing for the business.

短期來看，這兩件事，即產品組合的變化以及將這些長期因素考慮在內，當然會對利潤率產生一定影響。但我們認為，從長遠來看，這對公司來說將是一件非常好的事情。

Got it. That's really helpful color. So I appreciate that. I guess as a follow-up, I wanted to touch a little bit on private credit and some of the capital partnerships. In the last few months, there's been some smoker headlines about the health of some of these providers, whether it's due to credit exposure on either the consumer side or software exposure or something like that.

知道了。這個顏色真的很有幫助。我很感激。我想作為後續補充，稍微談談私人信貸和一些資本合夥關係。在過去的幾個月裡，出現了一些關於這些供應商健康狀況的聳人聽聞的新聞標題，無論是由於消費者方面的信用風險、軟體風險還是其他類似原因。

But I want to see -- it seems like the pipeline in -- for funding is -- remains really strong there. So I guess is I guess that correct? Is there any change in health or appetite for the consumer credit in the paper that you guys are underwriting? Just any color on how those conversations are going would be great. Thank you.

但我希望看到——看起來——那裡的資金流入渠道——仍然非常強勁。所以，我這樣理解對嗎？你們所承保的債券發行中，消費者健康狀況或信貸需求是否有任何變動？任何關於這些對話進展的資訊都非常有用。謝謝。

Hey, Kyle, it's Sanjay here. A couple of thoughts. So first of all, I would say we're very deliberate about who we engage with in the private credit world and I think that we can probably limit our observations to the ones we work directly with. But for those partners that we're working with, I would say that these are counterparties that do deep diligence on both the credit and on us. I think they do their job really well, and I think they take the credit as seriously as we do.

嘿，凱爾，我是桑傑。幾點想法。首先，我想說，我們在選擇與私人信貸領域的合作夥伴時非常謹慎，我認為我們可以將觀察範圍限制在我們直接合作的對像上。但對於我們正在合作的這些夥伴，我想說，這些交易對手會對信用和我們進行深入的盡職調查。我認為他們工作做得非常出色，而且我認為他們和我們一樣重視這份榮譽。

And I think our best reflection of how all of that credit is performing is in how we are assessing our own co-investments in those relationships and as you could see in the earnings materials, they are performing better and better.

我認為，衡量所有這些信貸表現的最佳方式，就是評估我們自身在這些關係中的共同投資，正如你在收益材料中看到的那樣，它們的表現越來越好。

And so I think that's probably just a reflection of the kinds of partnerships we've made and the kinds of co-investments we've made together, but everything is, I think, in very good shape with respect to the direct partnerships we have.

所以我認為這可能只是反映了我們建立的合作關係類型和我們共同進行的投資類型，但就我們現有的直接合作關係而言，我認為一切都進展得非常順利。

Okay. It's great to hear. Thanks for the update and nice quarter, guys.

好的。聽到這個消息真好。感謝各位的更新，祝你們季度表現出色。

Simon Clinch, Rothschild & Company. Redburn.

西蒙·克林奇，羅斯柴爾德公司。雷德伯恩。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, guys. I'm kind of curious just your thoughts around the general environment for the consumer, particularly as it potentially of what your models are seeing. In the third quarter last year, you talked about how there are some sort of slightly sort of uncertain signals that sort of materialize in the model and the model reacted. There's been a lot of volatility in the fourth quarter.

嗨，謝謝各位回答我的問題。我很好奇您對消費者整體環境的看法，特別是您的模型可能看到的情況。去年第三季度，您談到模型中出現了一些略帶不確定性的訊號，模型也做出了反應。第四季市場波動很大。

There's been some sort of some news that maybe there's been some constraints put by some of your peers perhaps? And I was just wondering if your model saw anything if you react in any way or any sort of signals that are work sort of notify.

似乎有一些消息說，你的一些同行可能對你施加了一些限制？我只是想知道，如果你做出任何反應，或接收任何工作訊號，你的模型是否會偵測到任何內容，或者是否會發出某種通知。

Yes, thanks. The health of the consumer is good. We in the UMI values return to what I call post-COVID normalization, which is sort of a long-term multiyear stable to down trend that has been really playing out since the consumer really took a hit back in 2022.

好的，謝謝。消費者的健康狀況良好。UMI 的數值回歸到我所說的後 COVID 時代的正常化狀態，這是一種長期的多年穩定下降趨勢，自 2022 年消費者遭受重創以來，這種趨勢一直在持續。

And it is true back in Q3, we had detected a real ultimately temporary increase in the background level of consumer risk. We think back in Q3, our models responded to that appropriately, but that has since faded. And I think we're back to the broader trend that we've been in for the last couple of years, which is which is a bit of normalization to where consumer health was before COVID and kind of stimulus to consumers to an unusual place.

確實，早在第三季度，我們就發現消費者風險背景水準出現了一種最終只是暫時的上升趨勢。回想第三季度，我們的模型對此做出了適當的反應，但此後這種反應已經消退。我認為我們又回到了過去幾年一直處於的大趨勢，那就是消費者健康狀況正在逐漸恢復到新冠疫情之前的狀態，而疫情對消費者的刺激作用則使之達到了一個不尋常的程度。

But in short, I think there is always a lot of noise out there about macro and volatility, but if it was showing up in any way in borrower behavior, we picked that up first in UMI. The really good news is that UMI has been showing really good and solid patterns for the consumer lately.

但簡而言之，我認為關於宏觀經濟和波動性總是有很多噪音，但如果這些噪音以任何方式反映在藉款人的行為中，我們在 UMI 中率先發現了這一點。真正的好消息是，UMI 最近在消費者方面展現了非常好的、穩定的趨勢。

That's great. And just as a follow-up, with the -- particularly with the likes of auto and now moving into home, when we think about the long-term market share opportunity in businesses like this, where it's much larger loan sizes, much larger TAM. I know Dave, you talked about, I think, in the past, aspiring to be like double-digit share in auto.

那太棒了。作為後續，特別是像汽車行業，現在又擴展到房屋行業，當我們考慮這類業務的長期市場份額機會時，貸款規模更大，總市場規模也更大。我知道戴夫，我想你以前也說過，渴望在汽車產業中佔據兩位數的市場。

And I was just wondering, has anything changed in the environment that means that those kinds of targets are perhaps not achievable or are they very much in your size?

我只是想知道，環境是否發生了任何變化，導致這些目標可能無法實現，或者這些目標對你們來說完全在能力範圍之內？

I think they're very much in sight. I mean 5 times growth in a year, certainly auto and HELOC as categories grew a tiny, tiny fraction of that, meaning we gained rapid market share in 2025. I would say generally that look, our view is that AI-enabled lending as a specialty is going to be the dominant market share in all of these categories, probably a decade from now.

我覺得他們就在眼前了。我的意思是，一年內成長了 5 倍，當然，汽車和房屋淨值信貸這兩個類別只佔其中的一小部分，這意味著我們在 2025 年迅速獲得了市場份額。總的來說，我們認為，在未來十年內，人工智慧賦能的貸款業務將在所有這些類別中佔據主導市場份額。

And so maybe the question is, if you're an investor or analyst trying to understand this, is everybody just going to develop this? Or are there going to be real leaders in developing sufficiently different AI models that they become giants. And that's what we intend to do.

所以問題可能是，如果你是投資者或分析師，想要了解這一點，那麼每個人都會開發出這種產品嗎？或者，是否會有真正的領導者開發出足夠獨特的AI模型，從而成為行業巨頭？而這正是我們打算做的。

We're -- we don't think there's anybody else building the sophistication of models that we are. And we think the economics make it inevitable that an AI-centric platform will be used to originate the majority of loans in these categories over time.

我們認為——我們認為沒有其他人能夠建立像我們這樣複雜的模型。我們認為，從經濟角度來看，隨著時間的推移，以人工智慧為中心的平台必然會成為這些類別中大部分貸款的發放平台。

So for us, it's not a question of whether I will dominate in these categories, it certainly will. The question for us and for everybody, of course, is what fraction of that will belong to upstart in our platform, and we're, of course, quite bullish on that.

所以對我們來說，這不是我是否會在這些類別中佔據主導地位的問題，我肯定會。當然，對我們以及所有人來說，問題在於我們平台上的新興企業將獲得多少份額，而我們對此當然非常樂觀。

Thanks, so much guys.

非常感謝各位。

Pete Christiansen, Citi.

Pete Christiansen，花旗集團。

Good evening. Thanks for the question. First congrats to Paul. Great to see transition here. Also congrats to Dave and Sanjay and the team and for time Andrea. And certainly, I want to applaud the added transparency with the monthly disclosure should go a long way towards reducing some volatility in the stock.

晚安.謝謝你的提問。首先祝賀保羅。很高興看到這裡的轉變。也要祝賀戴夫、桑杰和團隊，以及安德里亞所付出的時間。當然，我讚賞這種增加透明度的做法，每月揭露資訊應該能大幅降低股票的波動性。

My question is your perspective generally on the personal loan market. I there's some who opine that maybe there was a bit of saturation, a lot of growth last year. Just curious where -- how you see that perhaps accelerating or normalizing in '26 and what do you think that means for Upstart and their selectivity. And then I have a quick follow-up. Thank you.

我的問題是您對個人貸款市場的整體看法。有些人認為可能有點飽和了，去年成長很快。我只是好奇，您認為這種情況在 2026 年可能會加速或趨於正常化，以及這對 Upstart 及其篩選策略意味著什麼。然後我還有一個簡短的後續問題。謝謝。

Hey, thanks, Pete. Good to hear from you too. On personal loans and the sort of competitive market there, I think I would say I don't think we necessarily build our business around any assumptions about how the whole market is growing or not growing. But I do think personal loans are extremely useful product. They've generally grown nicely.

嘿，謝謝你，皮特。很高興收到你的來信。關於個人貸款以及那裡的競爭市場，我認為我們不應該基於對整個市場成長或不成長的任何假設來制定我們的業務。但我確實認為個人貸款是一種非常有用的產品。它們總體上長得很好。

But for us, it's all about winning market share. We think we're growing very nicely on our market share. Our product is competing extremely well better than ever on both the basis of rates and process. And we increasingly -- when we do market intelligence, it suggests that, that level of competitiveness is getting better and better over time.

但對我們來說，一切都關乎贏得市佔率。我們認為我們的市場佔有率成長勢頭良好。我們的產品無論從價格或流程來看，都極具競爭力，比以往任何時候都更好。而且，當我們進行市場情報調查時，調查結果越來越表明，這種競爭水平正在隨著時間的推移而不斷提高。

And we're really just in a position, I think, to press and cement that advantage, and that comes from the differentiated technology that we've built. We're going to keep investing in that, widen that lead. And ultimately, that's going to translate into an even bigger lead on best rates and best process for the consumer, and we think that's going to transfer to a bigger and bigger market share in a category that is really useful and important for a lot of people.

我認為，我們現在正處於鞏固和擴大這一優勢的有利位置，而這得益於我們所建立的差異化技術。我們將繼續加大投入，擴大領先優勢。最終，這將轉化為消費者在最佳利率和最佳流程方面更大的領先優勢，我們認為這將轉化為在這個對許多人來說真正有用和重要的類別中越來越大的市場份額。

That's helpful. And then as you think about the first half of this year, it's not a big beautiful bill, tax refund, tax on tips, those sorts of things. likely benefit the consumer shorter term and likely improve credit performance, at least the seasonality aspect of it, do you think that potentially may put a crimp in demand for term demand for personal loans? Thank you.

那很有幫助。然後，當你回顧今年上半年時，你會發現並沒有一大筆可觀的收入，例如退稅、小費稅等等。這些收入短期內可能對消費者有利，也可能改善信用狀況（至少在季節性方面）。你認為這是否會抑制個人貸款的長期需求？謝謝。

Yes. Good question. Generally, borrowers and therefore, we will benefit from looser economic policy that helps consumers.

是的。問得好。一般來說，借款人，以及我們，都會從有利於消費者的寬鬆經濟政策中受益。

While you're right that when people have more money, there may be marginally lower demand for credit, the much bigger factor in our business, the reason we ultimately end up really aligned with our consumers on their level of financial well-being is that the dominant factor in our business is our ability to approve people for competitive affordable rates. And that is much easier when people are in a healthy financial spot.

雖然你說得對，當人們擁有更多金錢時，對信貸的需求可能會略微下降，但對我們業務而言，更重要的因素是我們最終能夠與消費者的財務狀況保持一致，因為我們業務的主要因素是我們能夠為人們提供具有競爭力的、負擔得起的利率。當人們財務狀況良好時，這要容易得多。

So whether it's through interest rate cuts or tax bill changes or other policy changes that make life more affordable for the Media American, and those tend to flow through and be really beneficial to our volumes and business.

因此，無論是透過降低利率、改變稅收法案或其他政策變化，只要能讓美國媒體人的生活更加負擔得起，這些政策變化往往都會惠及我們的銷售和業務，並帶來真正的好處。

That's great. Thank you very much.

那太棒了。非常感謝。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions, and a second, the congratulations to the team, especially our all also taking the comments on added monthly disclosure. I think the market will appreciate those.

您好，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題，另外，也祝賀團隊，特別是所有採納了關於增加每月資訊揭露意見的人員。我認為市場會認可這些產品。

Now in terms of my question, the first question I had was I just wanted to double click in on a statement you made about -- I think you mentioned an increased weighting in lifetime value, which drives lower take rates. Can you just expand on that? Is really what's happening there are you considering repeat loans there? Or is that more of a product mix comment? Just trying to understand that and what that means as we think about 2026 and into the medium-term guide.

關於我的問題，我的第一個問題是，我想重點討論一下您提到的一個觀點——我認為您提到了終身價值權重的增加，這會導致成交率下降。能詳細解釋一下嗎？你那裡真的在考慮重複貸款嗎？或者這更多的是關於產品組合的評論？我只是想弄清楚這一點，以及這對我們思考 2026 年及中期規劃意味著什麼。

Yes. Thanks, Mihir. Yes. So that comment, I think, both Sanjay and I made reference to that. And it really was referencing the decline in contribution margins over the past year. And the really like the important thing to take away is that, that decline is expected, it's intentional, and it is the result of a few different things.

是的。謝謝你，米希爾。是的。所以，我認為我和桑傑都提到了這一點。這其實是指過去一年貢獻毛利率的下降。真正重要的是，這種衰退是可以預期的，是人為造成的，也是幾個不同因素共同作用的結果。

One of those is a changing mix into these much larger product categories, but another one is the one you flag, which is the increased consideration of longer-term value coming from both customers and our business. And really, you can just think of that as it's a little bit like we think cost goes like a much more valuable and bigger business than Whole Foods. I think we could certainly charge like our Whole Foods because we just have such differentiated products to offer the consumer.

其中之一是產品組合向更大的產品類別轉變，但另一個轉變正如你所指出的，那就是對客戶和我們業務的長期價值的日益重視。實際上，你可以這樣理解：我們認為成本控制就像一個比 Whole Foods 更有價值、規模更大的企業一樣。我認為我們完全可以像全食超市那樣定價，因為我們能為消費者提供差異化的產品。

But we don't want to take all of that surplus even when we can. Now obviously, if we need to, I think we could like in some years past, but we think we can ultimately build a much bigger business, getting more of the value to the customer. winning a much bigger share of the market being the very best product, saving people and amount of money that's really share worthy. And so, we're starting to do that.

但即使我們有能力，我們也不想把所有盈餘都拿走。當然，如果需要的話，我認為我們可以像過去幾年那樣做，但我們相信最終我們可以建立一個更大的企業，為客戶創造更多價值，贏得更大的市場份額，成為最好的產品，為人們節省大量資金，這才是真正值得分享的。所以，我們開始這麼做了。

Got it. Thank you. And then as my follow-up, I wanted to ask about the partners you're signing up for some of the newer secured products. firstly, kudos of getting the balance sheet smaller, I think that's a good sign.

知道了。謝謝。然後，我想進一步詢問一下你們為一些新的擔保產品選擇的合作夥伴。首先，你們成功縮小了資產負債表規模，我認為這是個好兆頭，值得稱讚。

But like just maybe just expand on the partners you're signing up for the secured products. Are they different? Are they -- is this more banks? Are they less yield, I guess, focused or is it like pretty similar partners as you have on the personal loan side? Thank you.

但或許可以進一步介紹你為安全產品簽約的合作夥伴。它們有差別嗎？它們是——這是更多銀行嗎？我猜他們的收益率較低，業務重點也比較單一，還是和你們個人貸款方面的合作夥伴差不多？謝謝。

Mihir, this is Sanjay. Yes. I would -- I guess the short answer is it's all of the above. In all of these markets, there's a traditional super prime segment, and there is relative to the existing markets, riskier segments.

米希爾，這位是桑傑。是的。我想，簡而言之，以上皆是。在所有這些市場中，都存在著傳統的超優質房地產市場，並且相對於現有市場而言，存在風險更高的市場。

We've got depository institutions like credit unions and banks that are now working with us. And in the institutional world, we have a mix of existing partners who expanded their scope with us. and then some new partners as well who are maybe more specialized or focused in these specific secured segments. So as usual, we are building a very broad resilient supply chain that's designed to be essentially the broadest risk aperture in the segment.

我們現在與信用合作社和銀行等存款機構合作。在機構投資者方面，我們既有與我們共同拓展業務範圍的現有合作夥伴，也有一些可能更專注於這些特定安全領域的新合作夥伴。因此，與往常一樣，我們正在建立一個非常廣泛且具有韌性的供應鏈，其設計目標是成為該領域風險敞口最大的供應鏈。

Understood. Thank you for taking my questions.

明白了。謝謝您回答我的問題。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑富瑞集團。

Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for taking my questions and, congratulations to the team for the executive evolution. First is just a quick modeling question. I mean I assume the tax rate now, you've been profitable for a few quarters. What -- is there anything you could tell us about your expectations for the tax rate next year?

下午好，各位。感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀團隊在管理轉型方面的成就。首先是一個簡單的建模問題。我的意思是，假設目前的稅率不變，你們已經連續幾個季度獲利了。您能否透露一下您對明年稅率的預期？

Hey John, I would expect that our operating loss carryforwards will continue to be in force for 2026.

嘿，約翰，我預計我們的經營虧損結轉政策將在 2026 年繼續有效。

Okay, thank you very much. And then you guys talked about ABS markets and forward flow. And I think some of the bank and credit unions have been consistent buyers over time, too. But maybe can you give us an update on that channel? And any kind of expectations for changes there?

好的，非常感謝。然後你們討論了資產支持證券市場和遠期交易。而且我認為，有些銀行和信用社也一直是持續的買家。您能否提供我們該頻道的最新進展？對這方面會有什麼變化預期嗎？

John, are you referring specifically to the ABS market or the bank channel?

約翰，你指的是資產支持證券市場還是銀行通路？

Well, I'm interested in any changes to the bank and saving -- excuse me, and credit union channels and their appetite for purchasing loans.

嗯，我對銀行和儲蓄——抱歉，還有信用合作社管道及其購買貸款的意願的任何變化都感興趣。

I see. I think that the existing set of partners we work with in study buyers, and I would say, a sort of steadily increased appetite. As we scale up in these newer secured categories, I think they attract the interest of maybe a larger size institution. Certainly, the bigger size of bank than has been interested in unsecured lending. And so we're starting to develop those relationships in a very interesting way.

我懂了。我認為，我們目前合作的買家群體，以及我所說的買家需求，都在穩定成長。隨著我們在這些新型擔保類別中擴大規模，我認為它們可能會吸引規模更大的機構的興趣。當然，規模較大的銀行對無擔保貸款更感興趣。因此，我們正以一種非常有趣的方式開始發展這些關係。

All right. And then you had pretty good growth in the core product both in the -- well, you had a good growth in the core product and the super prime product. Any -- and I know you talked about the average loan size, but anything you could talk about in terms of duration or other characteristics that we should be thinking about?

好的。然後，你們的核心產品和超優質產品都取得了相當不錯的成長。任何—我知道您談到了平均貸款規模，但您能否談談我們在貸款期限或其他方面應該考慮的因素？

Let's see, duration in our core business has been pretty steady. A mix of five and three-year terms. Obviously, the secured products have a slightly longer duration. So as they become a larger fraction of the mix, they will pull the duration up a little bit. But I think that they're still at a scale for such that their effect is not particularly meaningful.

讓我們來看看，我們核心業務的持續時間一直相當穩定。任期由五年和三年兩種學期組成。顯然，有擔保的產品的保質期會稍長一些。因此，隨著它們在混合物中所佔比例越來越大，持續時間也會稍微延長一些。但我認為它們的規模仍然很小，因此它們的影響並不特別顯著。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

雷吉史密斯，摩根大通。

Hey guys, thanks for taking the question, and Paul congrats on the promotion. And Dave, I had no idea you were $6 million like management buttons, Asian backwards, but congrats on the move up as well. My question, I guess, you guys have approved like more than 2 million loans over the last two years.

大家好，感謝你們回答這個問題，也祝賀保羅升職。戴夫，我完全不知道你身價 600 萬美元，就像管理按鈕一樣，亞洲人倒過來算，不過也祝賀你升職。我想問的是，你們在過去兩年批准了超過200萬筆貸款。

And I'm curious like how you guys would rate or think about your engagement with those borrowers during the repayment period, specifically with an eye towards selling additional loans and products. because I look at your app, and it seems like there are probably some low-hanging fruit from a feature perspective that could probably increase engagement.

我很好奇你們如何評價或看待在還款期間與借款人的互動，特別是從銷售更多貸款和產品的角度來看。因為我看了你們的應用程序，感覺從功能角度來看，可能有一些容易改進的地方可以提高用戶參與度。

But I don't want to, I guess, kind of mistake that. So I'm curious how you guys feel about that. And you also mentioned LTV during your prepared remarks, is there any stats you can share around recent trends there because I'm curious what the repeat usage is or what's giving you confidence that the LTV is kind of bending and the right action?

但我不想，我想，搞錯這一點。所以我很想知道你們對此有何感想。您在準備好的發言中也提到了 LTV，您能否分享一些關於近期趨勢的統計數據？因為我很好奇重複使用率如何，或者是什麼讓您確信 LTV 正在發生變化，並且採取了正確的行動？

Well, Reggie, you've got a good eye and we do have a lot of job openings if you're looking. So I mean you're absolutely right. There is a lot of low-hanging fruit there. We are relatively early in our journey to really building on the engagement of our customers once they've taken out their first loan.

雷吉，你眼光不錯，如果你正在尋找工作，我們這裡有很多職缺。所以我的意思是，你的說法完全正確。那裡有很多唾手可得的成果。我們目前仍處於真正加強客戶參與度的早期階段，尤其是在客戶獲得第一筆貸款之後。

We do have a lot of people that take out second loans in the same product or second loans another product. But it's really a relatively nascent program that we've built and we don't even have it fully rolled out. We have more limited mobile cross-sell capabilities today. So there is a lot of low-hanging fruit, and we actually think this is going to be a very significant source of upside in the next few years is really getting that whole ecosystem working.

我們確實有很多客戶會申請相同產品的二次貸款，或是申請其他產品的二次貸款。但這實際上是我們建立的一個相對初級的項目，我們甚至還沒有完全推出。目前我們的行動端交叉銷售能力較為有限。所以有很多唾手可得的成果，我們實際上認為，在未來幾年裡，真正讓整個生態系統運作起來，將會是一個非常重要的成長點。

We are starting to invest in it very seriously, both on the tech side, but also as we talked about in the contribution margin discussion on how we just think about the value of acquiring a new first-time customer. We don't have any metrics on this to share yet. But certainly, as this becomes more important, that's something that we'll consider.

我們開始非常認真地投資於此，不僅在技術方面，而且正如我們在貢獻毛利討論中談到的那樣，我們也在思考如何獲得一個新客戶的價值。我們目前還沒有這方面的數據可以分享。但可以肯定的是，隨著這件事變得越來越重要，我們會考慮這個問題。

Got it. Okay. No, that makes sense. If I could add one more. I guess I'm looking at the mix of loans this last year. And obviously, you've grown your mix of super prime. I see R&D auto HELOC all increased leasing and ratio, but they haven't increased a whole lot, and the platform referral fee take rate has come down a lot this year.

知道了。好的。沒錯，這很有道理。如果可以的話，我還要補充一點。我想我應該看看去年貸款的組合情況。顯然，你們已經擴大了優質食材的混合比例。我看到研發汽車房屋淨值信用額度租賃和比率都有所增加，但增幅並不大，而且今年的平台推薦費比例也大幅下降。

And so I'm trying to think about -- it sounds like these are going to be bigger pieces of the book, trying to get a sense for where this take rate can kind of go because it would seem like it's not really in the run rate just yet, but my numbers could be. Any color you can provide there would be great.

所以我正在思考——聽起來這些內容將會是這本書中更重要的部分，我想了解一下這種接受度可能會達到什麼程度，因為它似乎還沒有真正融入到日常的接受度中，但我的數據可能會。任何顏色都可以。

Yes, Reggie, there's a few dynamics going on. First of all, the newer businesses grew really quickly from a small basis. But the core business -- the core personal loan business growing very quickly itself. So the percentages there didn't like move as much as one would imagine when you get that kind of growth. But again, it's somewhat of a rich problem to have that all the products are growing really quickly. I mean generally, in the personal loan product, also the super prime segment, you can think of that as 720-plus is the fastest-growing part of that.

是的，雷吉，這裡面確實有一些複雜因素。首先，這些新興企業從小規模起步，發展速度非常快。但核心業務—核心個人貸款業務本身成長非常迅速。因此，在這種成長速度下，這些百分比的變化並沒有人們想像的那麼大。但話說回來，所有產品都成長得非常快，這多少也算是一種幸福的煩惱。我的意思是，總的來說，在個人貸款產品中，包括優質貸款領域，你可以把信用評分720分以上的貸款視為成長最快的部分。

And when you put that all together, the percentage take rate would expect to be trending down. But at the same time, both super prime personal loans as well as these new categories tend to have larger loan sizes. The dollars that you're -- that we're getting from each aren't necessarily small, in fact, may be larger. So that's kind of the way to think about it.

綜合所有因素來看，成交率預計會呈現下降趨勢。但同時，無論是特級優質個人貸款或這些新類別，貸款金額往往都比較大。你們——我們從你們每個人那裡得到的美元並不一定少，事實上，可能更多。所以，可以這樣思考這個問題。

The percent take rate in some ways, may become less useful as a metric because these other products can be much, much larger, particularly a HELOC, for example, and have a smaller take rate, but actually, the dollar margin on them is quite large. So anyway, that's -- it's sort of a bunch of things moving at the same time.

在某些方面，貸款發放率作為一項指標可能會變得不太有用，因為其他產品的規模可能要大得多，特別是房屋淨值信用額度貸款，例如，它們的貸款發放率可能較小，但實際上，它們的利潤率卻相當高。總之，這就像很多事情同時發生一樣。

Got it. If I could sneak one more in real quick. Does your guidance, three-year guidance contemplate any new products? And I'm thinking something like a smaller duration high-velocity loan, like I see some of your peers doing these kind of payday loans, but I guess duration 6-week loans. Are there any other products that aren't out yet that we should be thinking about as feeding this guidance?

知道了。如果我能再偷偷加一個就好了。你們的三年規劃中是否考慮過任何新產品？我考慮的是類似短期高回報貸款，就像我看到你們的一些同行在做這種發薪日貸款一樣，但我猜期限是 6 週的貸款。還有哪些尚未上市的產品值得我們考慮，可以為此指導原則提供參考？

Yes, Reggie, I mean, I think we've got a lot of exciting ideas. But with respect to financial guidance, I think you can assume that that will be largely earned off the back of our existing portfolio, including the new growing products.

是的，雷吉，我的意思是，我認為我們有很多令人興奮的想法。但就財務預期而言，我認為可以肯定的是，這主要將依靠我們現有的產品組合，包括不斷增長的新產品來實現。

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

完美的。謝謝大家。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

詹姆斯‧福塞特，摩根士丹利。

Thank you very much. I wanted to dig in a little bit on kind of the -- some of the profitability or how we think about contribution, et cetera. And -- when we -- particularly as you push more into auto and home and when you think about sales and marketing, how should we be anticipating things like target unit economics and borrow acquisition costs for those loans and products versus your traditional personal loans?

非常感謝。我想稍微深入探討一下獲利能力或是我們如何看待貢獻等等問題。而且—尤其是在您更多地涉足汽車和房屋領域，以及在考慮銷售和行銷時，我們應該如何預測這些貸款和產品的目標單位經濟效益和借款獲取成本，以及與傳統個人貸款相比的情況？

Hey James, let's see. In terms of acquisition costs, a bit of a, I think, a unique story to each product. Auto, in particular, as you know, is not a D2C product outside of refinance. It's one where we have enterprise software being embedded at the point of sale in the dealership. And so there's a go-to-market cost there, but once you're working with the dealership then per loan acquisition costs can look very low.

嘿，詹姆斯，讓我看看。就獲客成本而言，我認為每個產品的情況都略有不同。如您所知，汽車保險尤其如此，除了再融資之外，它不屬於直接面向消費者的產品。這是指在經銷商的銷售點嵌入企業軟體。因此，雖然有市場推廣成本，但一旦與經銷商合作，每筆貸款的取得成本就會顯得非常低。

And HELOC as well as a market where there's a big fraction of the market that is direct to consumer. And I think we would target a similar acquisition sort of margins per loan as we do in personal loans. Obviously, those loans are a lot bigger.

房屋淨值信用額度貸款 (HELOC) 市場以及一個很大一部分市場直接面向消費者的市場。我認為我們會像在個人貸款領域一樣，爭取類似的收購型貸款利潤率。顯然，這些貸款金額要大得多。

So of course, a bit more dollar cost per loan. And then there's a large fraction of the market that is done again through maybe B2B type points of sale, either through contractors or in branch at existing institutions. And so there is a bit of a mix there in terms of what is D2C and what is sort of B2B, if you will.

所以，每筆貸款的成本當然會稍微高一些。此外，還有很大一部分市場是透過 B2B 類型的銷售點完成的，無論是透過承包商還是在現有機構的分公司。因此，在D2C和B2B（如果你願意這麼稱呼的話）之間，存在一些混合現象。

Got it. And before I forget, and as I suppose my second question, congrats to everybody a lot of exciting moves for everybody personally, it sounds like. But on my second question, turning back to HELOC. Just curious are bars, are you getting any cross-sell from the existing funnel or from -- or is that from distinct acquisition channels? And then how do we think about the opportunity to cross-sell and how that may be built into your medium-term outlook and profitability targets?

知道了。在我忘記之前，也算是我的第二個問題，恭喜大家，聽起來對每個人來說都有很多激動人心的舉動。但關於我的第二個問題，回到房屋淨值信用額度（HELOC）的問題。我只是好奇，你們的交叉銷售是來自現有的銷售漏斗，還是來自其他管道？或者說，這些交叉銷售是否來自不同的獲客管道？那麼，我們應該如何看待交叉銷售的機會，以及如何將其納入您的中期展望和獲利目標中呢？

Yes. We are absolutely doing cross-sell for HELOC. It's one of the most important strategies for acquiring HELOC today. And it's because a lot of people that naturally show up in our and our personal loans marketing have homes, and HELOC is just an incredibly efficient way to refinance other debt they have or get financing for a project they want to do.

是的。我們絕對在進行房屋淨值信用額度（HELOC）的交叉銷售。這是目前取得房屋淨值信用額度最重要的策略之一。這是因為許多自然出現在我們個人貸款行銷活動中的人都有房產，而房屋淨值信用額度 (HELOC) 是一種非常有效的方式，可以用來為他們現有的其他債務進行再融資，或者為他們想要進行的項目獲得融資。

And historically, the reason more people didn't want to do HELOC as the process was so arduous. And as we increasingly automate that and make that our application to close process faster and faster. Today, we're at about 6 days versus an industry average of that process gets a lot closer to a personal loan like process and with the much better rates. I mean it's just an incredibly attractive product for many overlapping customers. So absolutely, we do a lot of cross sell.

從歷史上看，許多人不願意申請房屋淨值信用額度貸款的原因是，這個過程非常繁瑣。隨著我們不斷推進自動化進程，使我們的申請關閉流程越來越快。如今，我們的處理時間約為 6 天，而行業平均則要高得多。這項流程更接近個人貸款流程，而且利率也更優惠。我的意思是，對於許多重疊的客戶群來說，這確實是一款極具吸引力的產品。當然，我們做了很多交叉銷售。

Got it. Thanks, so much guys.

知道了。非常感謝各位。

David Scharf, Citizens Capital Markets.

David Scharf，Citizens Capital Markets。

Hey, good afternoon. Reggie stole my Benjamin Button observation, but congrats as well. to Dave and Paul and the whole crew. I wanted to take a step back and maybe just ask you for a little more color or the thought process on the guide. And specifically, maybe two questions.

嘿，下午好。雷吉搶先說了我對《班傑明·巴頓奇事》的看法，不過也祝賀戴夫、保羅以及全體劇組人員。我想退後一步，或許只是想請你再詳細說說這份指南的構思過程。具體來說，或許有兩個問題。

First is, as you noted that there was a kind of pretty substantial 20% reduction sequentially in the on-balance sheet exposure. As you look out three years, it's $2.5 billion of revenue, roughly, quite a bit of scale. Do you have a particular target in mind or how much balance sheet exposure you'd like to see when the business is at that level?

首先，正如您所指出的，資產負債表上的風險敞口環比下降了相當大的 20%。展望未來三年，營收將達到約 25 億美元，規模相當可觀。您心中是否有具體的目標？或者，當企業達到該水準時，您希望資產負債表上的風險敞口是多少？

Yes, it's a good question. I don't think we sort of target a level of exposure. I think we think of it more as appropriately using our balance sheet as a tool to propel the business forward. And that, as we have said in the past, it primarily means incubating new product areas and proving out new parts of the model that we need to do kind of internally.

是的，這是個好問題。我不認為我們會刻意追求某種曝光度。我認為我們應該更適當地將其視為利用資產負債表作為推動業務發展的工具。正如我們過去所說，這主要意味著孵化新的產品領域，並驗證我們需要在內部完成的新模式部分。

And a little hard to project it would sort of depend on what new products were in the market with at those times. But just to be clear, we don't aim to be a predominant balance sheet lender of any sort. We don't aim to have NIM net interest margin as anything dominant in our financials. So we are using it as a tool. Again, our expectation, and if you look at our guidance for 2026, you can see it's almost entirely dominated by fee-based revenues, and that's how we see our business going forward.

很難預測，這在某種程度上取決於當時市場上有哪些新產品。但需要明確的是，我們的目標並非成為任何類型的主要資產負債表貸款機構。我們並不打算將淨利差作為財務報表中的主導指標。所以，我們把它當作一種工具來使用。再次強調，我們的預期，如果你看看我們對 2026 年的預測，你會發現它幾乎完全由收費收入構成，這就是我們對未來業務發展的展望。

But we don't try to make specific predictions on it. We don't view a zero-balance sheet or zero loans on the balance sheet as an ideal future state, it might, in fact, indicate we're not doing enough R&D or we're not innovating fast enough. So we always intend to use the balance sheet in that way.

但我們不會對此做出具體預測。我們並不認為資產負債表為零或資產負債表上的貸款為零是理想的未來狀態，事實上，這可能表明我們的研發投入不足或創新速度不夠快。所以我們一直打算這樣使用資產負債表。

And maybe just to add on to what was saying, David, maybe better said, our strategy, I would articulate on the capital side as being we want to build the largest and most resilient supply chain of third-party capital to power these businesses as we can.

或許可以補充大衛剛才說的，或者更確切地說，我們的策略，在資本方面，我想闡述的是，我們希望建立規模最大、最具韌性的第三方資本供應鏈，盡可能地為這些企業提供資金支持。

And as you know, our personal loan business, which is very mature, has historically been well into the 90% plus range in terms of our ability to fund it with third-party capital, and we want to get these new businesses to the same place.

如您所知，我們的個人貸款業務非常成熟，歷史上我們利用第三方資本為其提供資金的能力一直保持在 90% 以上，我們希望這些新業務也能達到同樣的水平。

And I just want to say, I mean, one of the outcomes of incubating and doing it properly with our own capital is we have 100% retention of private capital partners. So they're depending on us to deliver a quality product that performs as it's supposed to part of that is, again, eating our own dog food, if you will, for a period of time.

我只想說，用我們自己的資金進行孵化和妥善運營的成果之一是，我們實現了100%的私人資本合作夥伴留存率。所以他們指望我們提供一款性能符合預期的高品質產品，而這其中一部分，用我們自己的經驗來比喻，就是在一段時間內吃我們自己的狗糧。

And that has resulted in, as I said, 100% retention and I think a long list of other private capital or private credit partners that we can potentially work with in the future.

正如我所說，這帶來了 100% 的留存率，而且我認為我們還累積了一長串未來可能與之合作的其他私人資本或私人信貸合作夥伴。

Got it. Understood. No, that's very helpful. And maybe just kind of one more follow-up. As we -- you think about the margin guidance for 2028, it's a notable roughly 400 basis point expansion from the 2026 level.

知道了。明白了。不，這很有幫助。或許還需要再補充一點。當我們——當你考慮 2028 年的利潤率預期時，你會發現它比 2026 年的水準顯著提高了約 400 個基點。

Just trying to get a sense for how to think about -- and I hate to use the word mature. You're not going to want anybody to use the word mature. But nevertheless, somewhat mature advanced margins if there's a ceiling. I know the company had a few quarters above 30% back in the 2021 late 2020 date. Do you view 25% is an informal kind of steady state level of profitability at scale? Or should we just think of that as nothing more than a three-year medium-term piece of guidance?

我只是想了解該如何思考——我討厭用「成熟」這個詞。你肯定不希望任何人使用“成熟”這個詞。但即便如此，如果存在上限，成熟的高階利潤率並非不可能。我知道該公司在 2020 年底的幾個季度裡，收益率都超過了 30%。您是否認為 25% 是一種非正式的、規模化後穩定的獲利水準？或者我們應該僅僅將其視為一份為期三年的中期指導方針？

Yes, it's a great question. The short answer to all the questions is just operating leverage. We expect to grow fixed costs by a fair bit less than we're growing the top line and also a fair bit less than we're growing contribution profits. Now we've answered a few questions about changes in the margin profile on the contribution side because of mix and getting into secured loans and lifetime value and all these things.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所有問題的簡短答案就是：經營槓桿。我們預期固定成本的成長速度將遠低於營收的成長速度，也將遠低於貢獻利潤的成長速度。現在我們已經回答了一些關於由於產品組合變化、進入擔保貸款領域以及終身價值等因素導致貢獻方面利潤率變化的問題。

And so that change within that 400 basis point move to that 25% EBITDA margin is really a whole bunch of different things that are happening. But ultimately, it's like -- we are building a much bigger business at the top of the funnel. That business is being built in categories that have slightly lower take rates and therefore, a lower contribution margins.

因此，從 400 個基點到 25% EBITDA 利潤率的變化，實際上是由許多不同的因素造成的。但歸根結底，這就好比——我們正在漏斗頂端打造一個更大的業務。該業務是在利潤率略低、因此貢獻毛利率也較低的品類中建立起來的。

But that will still significantly outgrow our increase in fixed expenses. That's partially just because naturally, we don't need we don't need to linearly grow all the fixed functions as we grow the business. There's just natural operating leverage in the business. But it's also frankly because we're pretty bullish about just how much productivity lift. We're already getting and will continue to get from adoption of AI internally and that we expect to continue to happen and give even more give us even more operating leverage.

但這仍然會遠遠超過我們固定支出的成長。部分原因是，隨著業務的成長，我們自然不需要線性地成長所有固定功能。這家企業本身就具有天然的經營槓桿效應。但坦白說，這也是因為我們對生產力提升的幅度非常樂觀。我們已經從內部採用人工智慧中獲益，並將繼續獲益，我們預計這種情況會繼續發生，並為我們帶來更大的營運槓桿。

So I definitely don't expect 25% to be some kind of terminal state. I think if you were to break those numbers apart, there's a lot of room for to keep going higher. And at the limit, I think it can be approaching what contribution margins look like. And -- but just keep in mind that those won't be quite as high as they were, say, back in 2021, where the only thing we were really optimizing for was really like honing in on those profit levels as we're facing that macro pressure and top of funnel volumes were declining.

所以我絕對不認為25%會是某種終結狀態。我認為，如果把這些數字拆開來看，還有很大的成長空間。而到了極限，我認為它可能會接近貢獻毛利的樣子。但請記住，這些數字不會像 2021 年那麼高，當時我們唯一真正追求的就是提高利潤水平，因為我們面臨宏觀壓力，而且漏斗頂部的流量正在下降。

Got it. Thank you very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Kyle Joseph, Stephens.

凱爾·約瑟夫，史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good afternoon, and yes, echo congrats to everyone. Most of my questions have been answered, but just kind of want to get your take, obviously, AI, at least in the last few weeks has been really disruptive to the market, whether it was software originally or data services or wealth management today.

嘿，下午好，是的，也向大家表示祝賀。我的大部分問題都得到了解答，但我還是想聽聽你的看法。顯然，人工智慧至少在過去幾週對市場產生了巨大的顛覆性影響，無論是最初的軟體，還是如今的數據服務或財富管理。

But just kind of want to get your updated take on the competitive environment and how you see the proliferation of AI impacting things? Obviously, I consider you guys to have an advantage there. But any updated thoughts.

我只是想了解您對當前競爭環境的最新看法，以及您認為人工智慧的普及將如何影響現狀？顯然，我認為你們在這方面有優勢。但有什麼新的想法嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We've been doing AI and lending long before really AI was even a term or people were talking about this in other contexts and categories. So I think we'd be really happy to see more players come into the AI lending world. I think it's still pretty thin ranks over here.

是的。謝謝你的提問。早在人工智慧真正成為一個術語，或者人們在其他背景和類別中談論人工智慧之前，我們就一直在從事人工智慧和貸款業務。所以我認為我們非常樂意看到更多玩家進入人工智慧借貸領域。我覺得這邊的隊伍還是很單薄。

And I think it's just good for the industry. It's good for the consumer, and we'd certainly welcome it. I think ultimately, if and when that happens, it's going to be a technology velocity question, and that's the kind of competition we like to be in, which is one where we think we've got a two-year head start across data, across algorithms across infrastructure. But we're really still very, very early in the application of AI to this business and the industry.

我認為這對行業來說是件好事。這對消費者來說是好事，我們當然歡迎。我認為最終，如果這種情況發生，那將是一個技術速度的問題，而這正是我們樂於參與的那種競爭，我們認為我們在數據、演算法和基礎設施方面都領先了兩年。但人工智慧在該業務和產業中的應用，我們其實還處於非常非常早期的階段。

And so we expect our technology to get much better at a rapid pace. We talked a little about the amount of data that we have collected and how fast that's growing. We just cleared 100 million training data points over really the first 14 years of the company's life, but the next page is going to come that much faster. That unlocks all of these proprietary algorithms that we've been building for all these years and lets us build more complex models that just can't run on smaller amount data.

因此，我們預計我們的技術將以驚人的速度得到極大的提升。我們簡單聊了聊我們收集的資料量以及資料成長的速度。在公司成立的頭 14 年裡，我們剛剛清理了 1 億個訓練資料點，但下一頁的到來速度會更快。這解鎖了我們多年來一直在構建的所有專有演算法，並使我們能夠建立更複雜的模型，而這些模型無法在較小的數據量上運行。

And then wrapped around that is this infrastructure layer where as you get these more powerful models with much larger amounts of data, you just need the ability to deal with more memory problems, more latent problems, more cost problems, and you have to build a bunch of engineering infrastructure around that. And so it's definitely the sort of problem with a natural technology flywheel in there. And we think we've got both the best starting position and the fastest velocity. And -- so I think it's -- as more people get into this, we think that's going to be good for the consumer, and we think we're going to still be in a very good position to compete.

然後，圍繞著這個基礎設施層，隨著你獲得功能更強大的模型和更大的資料量，你需要有能力處理更多的記憶體問題、更多的延遲問題、更多的成本問題，並且你必須圍繞它建立大量的工程基礎設施。所以這絕對是那種自然科技飛輪效應所帶來的問題。我們認為我們擁有最佳的起跑位置和最快的速度。所以我覺得，隨著越來越多人參與進來，這對消費者來說是件好事，我們認為我們仍然會處於非常有利的競爭的地位。

Great. Thank for taking my question.

偉大的。謝謝您回答我的問題。

Rob Wildhack, Autonomous Research.

Rob Wildhack，自主研究。

Hi everyone, and congrats on all the new roles. On 2026, any outlook there. You're exiting $25 million at like a $300 million quarterly revenue run rate. You've got 1Q that's kind of a seasonal low say that's another $300 million.

大家好，恭喜各位榮升新職。2026年有什麼展望嗎？你以每季約 3 億美元的營收速度退出了 2,500 萬美元的計畫。第一季是季節性低谷，比如說又減少了 3 億美元。

That would mean you have to average like $3.70 in quarterly revenue for the rest of the year. And the high watermark for the company ever was, I think, 310 back in '22 per quarter. So I'm just curious how you see this all coming together in like the revenue and I suppose volumes to ramping and accelerating throughout the year.

這意味著你今年剩餘時間裡，每季的平均收入必須達到 3.70 美元左右。而該公司有史以來的最高紀錄，我認為是 2022 年每季 310 美元。所以我很好奇，您如何看待這一切最終會如何匯聚到收入和銷售上，以及它們如何在一年中逐步提升和加速成長。

Hey, Rob, Sanjay here. I think of your back of the envelope math is roughly right. I've checked it specifically, but yes, I think you can assume that Q1 will be one with a bit of seasonal headwind and then from there, we'll continue our growth clip.

嘿，羅布，我是桑傑。我認為你粗略的估算大致正確。我已經專門查過了，是的，我認為你可以假設第一季會受到一些季節性不利因素的影響，然後我們將繼續保持成長勢頭。

And our growth story, hopefully, is familiar by now, but I think we've got a pipeline of exciting model wins and growth wins lined up to continue improving our funnels and allowing us to grow our campaign sizes at Constant CAC, which will power our core business, allow us to continue taking share.

希望大家現在已經熟悉我們的成長故事了，但我認為我們已經安排了一系列令人興奮的模式勝利和成長勝利，以繼續改進我們的管道，並使我們能夠在 Constant CAC 下擴大廣告系列規模，這將為我們的核心業務提供動力，使我們能夠繼續擴大市場份額。

And then, of course, we've got these new products that, as Dave said, have been sort of released into the wild now we -- I think we made in hindsight fortunate decision to continue investing in them. And now you're seeing the fruits of that labor.

當然，我們還有一些新產品，正如戴夫所說，這些產品現在已經上市了——事後看來，我認為我們當初決定繼續投資它們是件好事。現在，你們看到了努力的成果。

And I think they'll really begin to contribute in 2026 as well. So I think the combination of all of those things has us and our internal model is feeling pretty good about that.

我認為他們也會在 2026 年開始真正做出貢獻。所以我覺得所有這些因素綜合起來，讓我們和我們的內部模型都對此感到非常滿意。

Okay, thanks. And then a similar question on '28. Can you connect the 35% revenue CAGR to volume growth and you're not going to give like a 28% volume estimate, but just contextually, like how much of the 35% revenue growth do you see coming from maybe personal loans versus growth in the other products like home and auto?

好的，謝謝。然後，28日也出現了類似的問題。你能把 35% 的營收複合年增長率和銷售成長連結起來嗎？你不會給出像 28% 這樣的銷售成長預測，而是從背景上來說，例如你認為 35% 的收入成長中有多少來自個人貸款，又有多少來自房屋貸款和汽車貸款等其他產品的成長？

Well, yes, we're obviously not sharing a more specific mix breakdown nor frankly do I think we could honestly tell you the exact mix in 2028. Now obviously, our new products are growing very fast. They're growing off smaller bases, but they are growing much faster than personal loans. So they're going to be a much larger share than they are today just because they're huge they're huge markets.

是的，我們顯然不會分享更具體的混音分解，坦白說，我認為我們也無法誠實地告訴你 2028 年的確切混音。很顯然，我們的新產品成長非常迅速。雖然它們的基數較小，但它們的成長速度比個人貸款快得多。所以，它們的市佔率將會比現在大得多，因為它們規模龐大，是龐大的市場。

And ultimately, and I can't tell you if ultimately it's going to be in '28 or a few years after that. But I do think, ultimately, those products are going to be bigger for us in personal loans just because the addressable markets are that much bigger. And so it's sort of a question of getting there from here.

最終，我無法告訴你最終會在 2028 年還是在那之後的幾年。但我認為，最終，這些產品在個人貸款領域對我們來說會更加重要，因為潛在市場規模要大得多。所以問題就變成如何從這裡到達那裡。

And I think we're going to keep growing very fast all the years between now and then. And I think it's going to be a race between all of the categories, HELOC auto and unsecured and we're going to be doing cool stuff in all three. The tech is going to get better in all three. And the product is going to be just very, very competitive for the user on both best rate and best process. So I think it's anyone's race to win.

我認為從現在到那時，我們將繼續保持高速成長。我認為這將是所有類別之間的競爭，包括房屋淨值信用額度汽車貸款和無擔保貸款，我們將在所有這三個類別中都做出很棒的事情。這三方面的技術都會得到改進。這款產品在價格和流程方面都將極具競爭力，能夠為使用者提供最佳體驗。所以我覺得誰都有可能贏得這場比賽。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Arvind Ramani, Truist.

Arvind Ramani，Truist。

Hi, and thanks for taking my question. I did want to follow up on the question on AI. And we've talked about this before. upstart has been working on AI for a very long time now. But the question I had is, with some of the broader advancements in AI, where is upstart like sort of like able to sort of leapfrog what -- what are some of the advancements broader tech advancements have enabled you to kind of leapfrog some of the kind of AI kind of programs you all had internally?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。我想就人工智慧的問題做個後續探討。我們之前也討論過這個問題。 Upstart 公司在人工智慧領域已經耕耘了很長時間。但我的問題是，隨著人工智慧領域的一些更廣泛的進步，像我們這樣的新興企業能夠實現哪些跨越式發展——更廣泛的技術進步使你們能夠跨越式發展你們內部的一些人工智慧程式？

And are there any segments where you are feeling a little bit more exposed just because like something that was special that you've developed is not more broadly available?

是否有某些領域讓你感到自身處境更加艱難，因為你開發的某些特殊產品/服務並沒有被更廣泛地獲取？

Thanks for the question. We're really big fans of all the progress is a huge benefit for our business in a few different ways. We don't feel threatened remotely by it. We actually feel extremely grateful for it and I'll kind of explain why. So I would say just from the perspective of do we feel threatened by it.

謝謝你的提問。我們非常看好所有這些進展，這對我們公司的業務在幾個方面都大有裨益。我們絲毫沒有感到受到威脅。我們對此深表感激，我來解釋一下原因。所以，我只想從我們是否感到受到威脅的角度來看這個問題。

I mean the simple answer is just that a lot of the advances in AI are really good for work that humans are naturally good at. And I think that's what makes it really exciting. So what makes it really useful for so many different kinds of applications.

我的意思是，簡單的答案就是，人工智慧的許多進步確實非常適合人類天生擅長的工作。我覺得這正是它真正令人興奮的地方。那麼，是什麼讓它在如此多不同類型的應用中都如此有用呢？

But unfortunately, humans have never really been very good at precisely underwriting loans and figuring out the cash flows they're going to produce for the next five years. And that's something that has always been solved as a big math problem, better solve this big math problem. And so it's not -- it's not something that you can just do because you have a language model that replicates human behavior, well, again, not something that humans are naturally good at.

但不幸的是，人類從來都不擅長精確地評估貸款，也不擅長計算貸款在未來五年內將產生的現金流。而這個問題一直以來都被當作一個大型數學問題來解決，最好還是解決這個大型數學問題。所以，這並不是——這不是你能做到的事情，因為你有一個可以複製人類行為的語言模型，嗯，再說一遍，這不是人類天生擅長的事情。

In order to solve this problem well, you need to have some pretty specific kinds of data that connect lots of information about people at the time they want loans historically with what happens later in the lives of those loans.

為了更好地解決這個問題，你需要一些非常具體的數據，這些數據將人們在歷史上申請貸款時的許多資訊與這些貸款在後續生命週期中發生的事情聯繫起來。

And then you need very specific kinds of algorithms to connect those things in a way that is going to maximize your signal extraction and that's what we've been working on for 12 years. And now turning to like why we're so grateful for all the progress. Well, one reason is actually that a lot of the advances in basic infrastructure or some of the basic types of algorithms that we then innovate and build on actually coming from all of this progress in AI.

然後，你需要非常具體的演算法來連接這些東西，以最大限度地提取訊號，而這正是我們12年來一直在研究的。現在來說說我們為什麼對所有取得的進步如此感激。其中一個原因是，許多基礎基礎設施的進步，或是我們在此基礎上進行創新和建構的一些基本演算法，實際上都源自於人工智慧的這些進步。

When you read about how many billions of dollars are going into funding all the R&D there, some of what comes out of there are just better kind of base algorithms or better kinds of infrastructure that then we get to use. Of course, you think about chips and compute and memory and all of the progress there, like we benefit from all of that.

當你讀到有多少數十億美元投入那裡的研發時，你會發現，其中一些成果只是更好的基礎演算法或更好的基礎設施，然後我們才能使用它們。當然，你會想到晶片、計算、記憶體以及所有這些領域的進步，我們會從中受益。

But then at the actual application layer like the types of models you actually need are just totally different. The types of data you need is totally different. So we sort of get the benefits, but we aren't really -- aren't really threatened. Now we do also get to use -- directly benefit from and use a lot of the AI technology that's now coming out we get to use that in new ways, ways that are different than what I thought -- think of as these big math problems that traditionally, we were really good at solving.

但是，在實際應用層面，例如你實際需要的模型類型，就完全不同了。你需要的資料類型完全不同。所以我們在某種程度上得到了好處，但我們並沒有真正受到威脅。現在我們也能直接受益於並使用許多正在湧現的人工智慧技術，我們可以用新的方式使用它，這些方式與我以前的想法不同——想想那些我們傳統上非常擅長解決的大型數學問題。

We now get to do things like if you think about something like HELOC and how you automate more and more of HELOC, will naturally because so much of the process of securing and perfecting a lean, checking like the property records like a lot of that stuff is mess in a human way and traditionally comes with very high operations cost because you have a lot of people that are checking to make sure things are right.

現在我們可以做一些事情，例如想想房屋淨值信用額度 (HELOC) 以及 HELOC 的自動化程度越來越高，這很自然，因為確保和完善精益流程的很多環節，比如檢查房產記錄等等，在人工操作方面都很混亂，而且傳統上會帶來非常高的運營成本，因為需要很多人來檢查以確保一切正確。

Those are actually perfect problem to throw sort of LLM style AI against. And so we're doing a lot of work like that now. And that's actually going to help us get the rates of automation are much higher in the business than would have been possible, say, five years ago. And we absolutely are excited to be at sort of forefront of applying AI in those ways.

實際上，這些問題非常適合用LLM風格的人工智慧來解決。所以我們現在做了很多類似的工作。實際上，這將幫助我們實現比五年前更高的企業自動化率。我們非常興奮能夠走在人工智慧應用領域的前端。

Of course, also, that's relevant to how we operate and how we make ourselves productive as a team really relevant to the question of ultimately how much operating leverage the business gets. I think in all those places, we're super, super optimistic about AI. But ultimately back to the question of like how much does it threat. And what we've built over the last 12 years, I would say it's a huge boost, not at all a threat.

當然，這也與我們的營運方式以及我們如何作為一個團隊提高生產力息息相關，最終關係到企業能獲得多少營運槓桿。我認為在所有這些地方，我們對人工智慧抱持著非常非常樂觀的態度。但歸根究底，問題還是在於它究竟會造成多大的威脅。而我們在過去 12 年所取得的成就，我認為是一種巨大的推動，而不是一種威脅。

Great. And just -- that's really helpful. Just last quick follow-up on that. In terms of like kind of the AI apps and tools, right, I mean, you'll kind of use open eye, anthropic, lovable cursor, like who are your big I partners?

偉大的。而且——這真的很有幫助。最後再補充一點。就人工智慧應用程式和工具而言，我的意思是，你會使用類似睜眼、擬人化、可愛的遊標，例如你的大型人工智慧合作夥伴是誰？

I mean we are happy to use we use all these models from all of the foundation model providers in the different kinds of uses that I described. But when it comes to the models that we use in our core lending business, those are all proprietary to us. They're ones that we've been building for the last dozen years or so. And those are not things that -- they're not directly built on top of anybody else's technology.

我的意思是，我們很樂意使用來自所有基礎模型提供者的所有這些模型，用於我所描述的各種用途。但就我們核心貸款業務中使用的模型而言，這些都是我們專有的。這些是我們過去十多年一直在建造的。而這些東西並不是——它們並非直接建立在任何其他人的技術之上。

And that's really because when I say that we benefit from some of the base algorithm innovations. It's like there are -- there will be a paper about a new kind of neural network, and we'll certainly ingest that we'll try out that new type of network.

那正是因為我們受益於一些基礎演算法創新。就像會有一篇關於新型神經網路的論文，我們肯定會認真閱讀並嘗試這種新型網路。

But actually to make it work as well as our models do on loans, you have to make a whole bunch of modifications to it to make it care about the right kinds of things naturally like you don't want -- you don't want it to be naturally interested, for example, in getting something right only in a one or zero, which a lot of these models are naturally set up to do.

但實際上，要讓它像我們的貸款模型一樣有效，你必須對它進行大量的修改，讓它自然而然地關注你不希望看到的事情——例如，你不希望它自然而然地只對得到 0 或 1 的結果感興趣，而很多這類模型原本就是這樣設置的。

You wanted to really care about the whole series of cash flows, the timing of cash flows, like exactly how many dollars in sense. And -- so you have to change a lot of the internal math of these things to make them really optimal for our problem. And so those are all proprietary algorithms that we've built over many years.

你真的想關注整個現金流序列、現金流的時間安排，例如具體金額是多少美元。因此，你必須改變這些東西內部的許多數學運算，使它們真正適合我們的問題。所以這些都是我們多年來開發的專有演算法。

Okay. And so that means the message I can take away is that you all have -- your tech stack is kind of so unique to you all that even if there's some advancements out there, no one can just like kind of just strip together the solution. This needs to be stitched together by hand. Like this is not like easy to replicate.

好的。所以，我能得出的結論是，你們所有人的技術棧都非常獨特，即使現在有一些技術進步，也沒有人能夠簡單地把解決方案拼湊起來。這需要手工縫製。這可不是輕易就能複製的。

100%. Again, it's really important to just remember that the LLM models coming from Anthropic or open AI or any of the others, Gemini. They are really good at solving problems that humans are good at solving and they can do it at scale. They can work 24/7. You can spin up 100 of them in parallel and have them work. But no matter how many humans you have, you don't want that army of humans underwriting loans for you.

100%。再次強調，一定要記住，來自 Anthropico、OpenAI 或其他任何公司的 LLM 模型，以及 Gemini 模型。他們非常擅長解決人類擅長解決的問題，而且他們能夠大規模地解決這些問題。他們可以全天候工作。你可以同時啟動 100 個這樣的設備，並讓它們正常運作。但無論你擁有多少人，你都不希望這群人來為你做貸款擔保。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Dave Girouard for any final or closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想把電話交還給戴夫·吉魯阿爾，讓他做最後的總結發言。

All right. As we wrap up, I just want to thank each of you for your time and attention over the past few years. As I said earlier, my time as the CEO of upstart is something that I will always cherish. I couldn't be more bullish about the company's future under Paul's leadership.

好的。最後，我要感謝各位在過去幾年給予我的時間和關注。正如我之前所說，我擔任這家新創公司執行長的那段時光，我將永遠珍惜。我對公司在保羅的領導下的未來充滿信心。

We are really just getting started and now more than ever, those who stay will be champions. Thank you for joining us today.

我們才剛起步，現在比以往任何時候都更需要堅持下去的人，他們終將成為冠軍。感謝您今天蒞臨。

This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。