UBS Group AG (UBS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Welcome to the first quarter 2023 results presentation. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. (Operator Instructions) At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sarah Mackey, UBS Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

女士們，先生們，早上好。歡迎來到 2023 年第一季度的業績發布會。不得為出版或廣播錄製會議。 （操作員說明）此時，我很高興將工作交給 UBS 投資者關係部門的 Sarah Mackey。請繼續，女士。

Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Before we start, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement slide at the back of today's results presentation. Please also refer to the risk factors in our 2022 annual report together with additional disclosures in our SEC filings. On Slide 2, you can see our agenda for today. It's now my pleasure to hand over to Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO.

早上好，歡迎大家。在我們開始之前，我想提請您注意今天結果演示文稿後面的警示性聲明幻燈片。另請參閱我們 2022 年年度報告中的風險因素以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的額外披露。在幻燈片 2 上，您可以看到我們今天的議程。現在我很高興將工作交給集團首席執行官 Sergio Ermotti。

Thank you, Sarah. Good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be back here with all of you, and it's an honor and privilege to lead UBS once again, especially at such a pivotal time for our organization and for all our stakeholders. First of all, I'd like to thank Ralph, the management team and all of our employees for their dedication over the last 2.5 years. During this time, UBS delivered record results and continued to build trust and confidence with our clients and our stakeholders. Our performance this quarter demonstrates that we continue to be a source of stability for our clients during periods of significant uncertainty. Our strong flows across Global Wealth Management and Asset Management reflect our clients' continued confidence and trust in us. The results include an increase in litigation provisions relating to U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities. We are in advanced discussions with the U.S. Department of Justice, and I'm pleased that we are making progress towards resolving this legacy matter that dates back 15 years.

謝謝你，莎拉。大家，早安。我很高興能和大家一起回到這裡，再次領導瑞銀是一種榮幸和榮幸，尤其是在我們組織和所有利益相關者的關鍵時刻。首先，我要感謝拉爾夫、管理團隊和我們所有的員工在過去 2.5 年裡的奉獻。在此期間，瑞銀取得了創紀錄的業績，並繼續與我們的客戶和利益相關者建立信任和信心。我們本季度的表現表明，在存在重大不確定性的時期，我們仍然是客戶穩定的源泉。我們在全球財富管理和資產管理部門的強勁流動反映了客戶對我們的持續信心和信任。結果包括增加與美國住宅抵押貸款支持證券有關的訴訟條款。我們正在與美國司法部進行深入討論，我很高興我們在解決這一可追溯到 15 年前的遺留問題方面取得了進展。

On an underlying basis, which also excludes litigation, our results were solid, with a return on CET1 capital of 16.5% and a cost-to-income ratio of 72.8%. When I left UBS in 2020, the -- our strength and stability put us in a position to consider all options for our future, including transformative acquisitions. Today, UBS is stronger than ever with diversified revenue streams, continued capital and liquidity strength, disciplined risk management and a balance sheet for all seasons. As a result, we are well prepared to be part of the solution to rescue Crédit Suisse and contribute to financial stability in Switzerland and globally. Despite its complexity, I'm convinced that this transaction will also provide value for the clients and employees of the combined organizations. The acquisitions enable us to benefit from the significant value, franchise value and, in many cases, complementary businesses within Crédit Suisse.

在基本基礎上（也排除訴訟），我們的業績穩健，CET1 資本回報率為 16.5%，成本收入比為 72.8%。當我在 2020 年離開瑞銀時，我們的實力和穩定性使我們能夠考慮未來的所有選擇，包括變革性收購。今天，瑞銀比以往任何時候都更強大，擁有多元化的收入來源、持續的資本和流動性實力、嚴格的風險管理和四季皆宜的資產負債表。因此，我們已做好充分準備，成為拯救瑞士信貸的解決方案的一部分，並為瑞士和全球的金融穩定做出貢獻。儘管它很複雜，但我相信這項交易也將為合併後組織的客戶和員工提供價值。這些收購使我們能夠從 Crédit Suisse 內部的重要價值、特許經營價值以及在許多情況下的互補業務中受益。

For our clients, the first quarter was largely a continuation of the team's strong 2022. Clients continued to be concerned about the impact of debt inflation and central bank policies will have on economic growth, especially in the U.S. While our Wealth Management clients remain on the sidelines, our advisers helped them identify opportunities to manage their liquidity and diversify risk. As a result, we benefited from $20 billion in net new fee generating assets globally, an annualized growth rate of 6%. Net new money in GWM was $28 billion. Importantly, $7 billion of this came in the 10 business days after the acquisition announcement. This is a further testament to how clients turn to us as they search for stability. During the first quarter, we helped our clients diversify cash holdings as they shifted deposits into money market funds and T bills. In Asset Management, we saw another $18 billion in money market inflows with strong contributions from our U.S. wealth management clients. We saw further deleveraging, particularly in the Americas, but also in APAC and EMEA. This was offset by loan growth in Switzerland, resulting in stable loan balances quarter-on-quarter, excluding FX.

對於我們的客戶而言，第一季度在很大程度上是該團隊 2022 年強勁業績的延續。客戶繼續關注債務通脹和央行政策將對經濟增長產生的影響，尤其是在美國。而我們的財富管理客戶仍處於在場外，我們的顧問幫助他們發現了管理流動性和分散風險的機會。因此，我們在全球範圍內受益於 200 億美元的淨新收費資產，年增長率為 6%。長城汽車的淨新資金為 280 億美元。重要的是，其中 70 億美元是在收購公告發布後的 10 個工作日內完成的。這進一步證明了客戶在尋求穩定性時如何轉向我們。在第一季度，我們幫助客戶分散現金持有量，因為他們將存款轉入貨幣市場基金和國庫券。在資產管理方面，我們看到另外 180 億美元的貨幣市場資金流入，這得益於我們的美國財富管理客戶的巨大貢獻。我們看到進一步去槓桿化，尤其是在美洲，但也在亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區。這被瑞士的貸款增長所抵消，導致貸款餘額環比穩定，不包括外匯。

Compared to last year's very strong first quarter, institutional clients were less active, particularly in equity derivatives and cash, as they lacked conviction in an uncertain market. However, we did have strong performances in prime brokerage and electronic FX. Clients continue to turn to us for advice in managing their assets, including their liquidity. What is important is the positive shifts into money market and T bills remained with UBS, and we also saw $9 billion in new deposits into our platform. This supported positive net new money across all of our regions in the first quarter.

與去年非常強勁的第一季度相比，機構客戶不太活躍，尤其是在股票衍生品和現金方面，因為他們對不確定的市場缺乏信心。然而，我們在大宗經紀業務和電子外匯方面確實表現強勁。客戶繼續向我們尋求有關管理其資產（包括流動性）的建議。重要的是向貨幣市場的積極轉變，國庫券仍由瑞銀持有，我們還看到 90 億美元的新存款進入我們的平台。這支持了第一季度我們所有地區的正淨新資金。

Let me go through each of the regions in more detail. In the Americas, our separately managed account initiative with asset management further supported net new fee generating assets. And during the period of significant disruption in March, we saw positive inflows from our clients. As a result, we had solid net new money for the quarter. Our adviser recruiting momentum also continued and should support flows in future periods, aligned with our continued growth ambitions in the U.S. The strength of our business in Switzerland resulted in another quarter of inflows into mandates and other investment products. In EMEA, clients continued to be cautious overall, but net new money was positive and net interest income rose by nearly 60% as we started to benefit from higher euro rates.

讓我更詳細地介紹每個區域。在美洲，我們的資產管理獨立管理賬戶計劃進一步支持淨新的收費資產。在 3 月份的重大中斷期間，我們看到了來自客戶的積極資金流入。結果，我們在本季度獲得了可觀的淨新資金。我們的顧問招聘勢頭也在持續，應該會支持未來時期的資金流動，這與我們在美國的持續增長目標一致。我們在瑞士的業務實力導致另外四分之一的資金流入授權和其他投資產品。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，客戶總體上繼續保持謹慎，但淨新資金為正，淨利息收入增長近 60%，因為我們開始受益於更高的歐元利率。

Lastly, while our clients in Asia Pacific continue to take a wait-and-see approach in terms of transactions, we saw broad-based flows into net new fee generating assets. We have now seen 17% net new fee generating asset growth in APAC over the last 12 months. When I first became UBS' Group CEO in 2011, we positioned our asset gathering and the Swiss businesses at the heart of our strategy. We successfully restructured our Investment Bank by reducing noncore market activities and assets with discipline. We solidified our capital position, and we took decisive actions to strengthen our culture. As a result of our efforts, we restored trust with all our stakeholders, materially derisked our business and generated significant amounts of capital for our shareholders.

最後，雖然我們在亞太地區的客戶在交易方面繼續採取觀望態度，但我們看到基礎廣泛的資金流入淨新的收費資產。在過去的 12 個月中，我們現在看到亞太地區產生 17% 淨新費用的資產增長。當我在 2011 年首次成為瑞銀集團首席執行官時，我們將資產收集和瑞士業務置於我們戰略的核心。我們通過有紀律地減少非核心市場活動和資產，成功地重組了我們的投資銀行。鞏固資本地位，果斷做強文化建設。由於我們的努力，我們恢復了對所有利益相關者的信任，大大降低了我們業務的風險，並為我們的股東創造了大量資本。

As we now embark on another transformational step in UBS' journey, our principle will remain the same. We will be laser focused on delivering the best possible outcome for our unrivaled client franchises, our employees, our shareholders and for all of Switzerland. We will do this by maintaining our strong culture and focus on prudent risk management. The combination of UBS and Crédit Suisse will result in around $5 trillion of invested assets, which is the equivalent for us of 7 to 10 years of net new money. It will make us the second largest wealth manager in the world. Importantly, it will reinforce our position as the only truly global player among the leading wealth managers with strategic scale and complementary capabilities in the most attractive growth markets. We will reinforce our leading position in APAC, Switzerland and EMEA and will significantly enhance our position in Latin America.

隨著我們現在踏上瑞銀旅程中的又一個轉型步驟，我們的原則將保持不變。我們將專注於為我們無與倫比的客戶特許經營權、我們的員工、我們的股東和整個瑞士提供最好的結果。我們將通過保持我們強大的文化並專注於審慎的風險管理來做到這一點。瑞銀和瑞士信貸的合併將產生約 5 萬億美元的投資資產，這相當於我們 7 到 10 年的淨新資金。這將使我們成為世界第二大財富管理機構。重要的是，這將鞏固我們在最具吸引力的增長市場中具有戰略規模和互補能力的領先財富管理機構中唯一真正的全球參與者的地位。我們將鞏固我們在亞太地區、瑞士和歐洲、中東和非洲的領先地位，並將顯著提升我們在拉丁美洲的地位。

In Asset Management, the combination will improve our positioning globally and in Europe. But more importantly, we will bring together 2 highly complementary businesses to increase our scale and accelerate our strategic growth plans. With the combination, our clients will benefit from an enhanced offering in alternatives, credit and thematics with additional scale for our index platform. We are already the leading bank in Switzerland. This is not a result of our size or market share but our expert capabilities and the global reach we provide our clients. The combination with Credit Suisse will reinforce this strength.

在資產管理方面，合併將提升我們在全球和歐洲的地位。但更重要的是，我們將匯集 2 項高度互補的業務，以擴大我們的規模並加快我們的戰略增長計劃。通過合併，我們的客戶將受益於替代品、信貸和主題的增強產品，以及我們指數平台的額外規模。我們已經是瑞士領先的銀行。這不是我們的規模或市場份額的結果，而是我們的專業能力和我們為客戶提供的全球影響力的結果。與瑞士信貸的合併將加強這一實力。

There is a strong competition in the Swiss market. For example, the combined market share of UBS and Credit Suisse in mortgages and in loans to corporates and public institutions is lower than that of the Kantonalbanks. Raiffeisen has twice as many branches as UBS and Crédit Suisse combined. So customers have plenty of options, and we will have to work hard to earn and retain their relationships. As we think about the future of this business, my commitment is that we will look at the best option to create most value for both franchises in the interest of our clients, employees, shareholders and society at large. This assessment will be based on facts, not emotions.

瑞士市場競爭激烈。例如，UBS 和 Credit Suisse 在抵押貸款以及企業和公共機構貸款方面的合併市場份額低於 Kantonalbanks。 Raiffeisen 的分支機構數量是 UBS 和 Crédit Suisse 總和的兩倍。所以客戶有很多選擇，我們將不得不努力工作來贏得併保持他們的關係。當我們思考這項業務的未來時，我的承諾是，我們將尋找最佳選擇，為我們的客戶、員工、股東和整個社會的利益，為兩家特許經營權創造最大價值。這種評估將基於事實，而不是情緒。

Globally, we will stay true to our capital-light and client-focused Investment Bank model, which we will leverage across the organization while benefiting from the diversification and complementary capabilities. As a result, the Investment Bank will account for around 25% of group risk-weighted assets on day 1 and beyond. Activities outside our strategic focus and risk appetite will be run down in the best interest of our shareholders while minimizing the risk of potential losses to the Swiss taxpayers. We are excited about the opportunity to deliver the combined strengths of both firms to an expanded client base, and initial conversation with our clients suggest they agree and recognize the value of the combined organization. There is much to do, and there will be difficult decisions to be made over the coming months. Transformations don't happen in a straight line, we know that from our own experience. But we are confident in our ability to deliver on the end state as well as our existing growth ambition in the U.S. and APAC to create long-term value for all our stakeholders.

在全球範圍內，我們將堅持我們的輕資本和以客戶為中心的投資銀行模式，我們將在整個組織中利用這種模式，同時受益於多元化和互補能力。因此，在第一天及以後，投資銀行將佔集團風險加權資產的 25% 左右。我們的戰略重點和風險偏好之外的活動將以我們股東的最大利益為出發點，同時將瑞士納稅人的潛在損失風險降至最低。我們很高興有機會將兩家公司的綜合優勢提供給擴大的客戶群，與我們客戶的初步對話表明他們同意並認可合併後組織的價值。有很多事情要做，未來幾個月將做出艱難的決定。轉變不會直線發生，我們從自己的經驗中知道這一點。但我們對實現最終狀態的能力以及我們在美國和亞太地區為所有利益相關者創造長期價值的現有增長雄心充滿信心。

Before I hand over to Sarah, I'd like to provide a brief update on the status of the acquisition. We have received the required approvals from the Swiss authorities, including FINMA, as well as the U.K.'s PRA and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Additional required approvals are being expedited and we continue to expect the transaction to close in the second quarter. Since the deal is pending, we are limited in what we can communicate at this time, but we remain committed to providing as much transparency as possible once information becomes available. Sarah will take you through our high-level plan to provide you with more information on the transaction.

在我交給 Sarah 之前，我想簡要介紹一下收購的最新情況。我們已獲得瑞士當局（包括 FINMA）以及英國 PRA 和美國聯邦儲備委員會的必要批准。正在加快額外的必要批准，我們繼續預計該交易將在第二季度完成。由於交易懸而未決，我們目前可以溝通的內容有限，但我們仍然致力於在信息可用後提供盡可能多的透明度。 Sarah 將帶您了解我們的高級計劃，為您提供有關交易的更多信息。

One of my immediate priorities is our people across both organizations. We look forward to welcoming our new colleagues at UBS. Until closing, we are restricted in the extent we can engage, and we are doing as much as we can given these restrictions. We have a lot of work ahead of us to bring our firms together, and this transaction will present interesting and challenging opportunities to our current and future employees. We will be one team upon closing of the transaction, and we want the best people to take UBS forward. I'm also focused on establishing our target operating model and organizational structure. It is clear that while we manage this integration, we need a model that will allow us to stay close to clients and deliver on our ambitions and financial targets while also minimizing distractions. Over the coming weeks, I will provide you with more information on this.

我的當務之急之一是我們兩個組織的員工。我們期待著歡迎瑞銀的新同事。在關閉之前，我們可以參與的範圍受到限制，並且我們正在盡我們所能地做這些限制。為了將我們的公司整合在一起，我們還有很多工作要做，這項交易將為我們現在和未來的員工帶來有趣和具有挑戰性的機會。交易完成後，我們將成為一個團隊，我們希望最優秀的人才帶領瑞銀向前發展。我還專注於建立我們的目標運營模式和組織結構。很明顯，在我們管理這種整合的同時，我們需要一種模型，使我們能夠貼近客戶，實現我們的雄心壯志和財務目標，同時最大限度地減少干擾。在接下來的幾週內，我將為您提供更多相關信息。

In summary, our strategy, capital strength, risk management and culture are what have put us in a position today to deliver solid underlying results against a challenging market backdrop. All of these factors will also play an important role as we deliver on our integration plans. While the task ahead of us is challenging and urgent, we believe that the acquisition of Crédit Suisse presents a unique opportunity to generate significant long-term value to all of our stakeholders. In particular, I'm convinced that this transaction will help to reinforce the leading position of the Swiss financial center and will be of benefit to the entire economy. As we start writing our next chapter, I'm looking forward to working with my executive team and my colleagues across UBS and Crédit Suisse to build an organization that our clients, employees, shareholders and Switzerland can be proud of. With that, I hand over to Sarah.

總而言之，我們的戰略、資本實力、風險管理和文化使我們今天能夠在充滿挑戰的市場背景下取得堅實的基礎成果。在我們實施整合計劃時，所有這些因素也將發揮重要作用。儘管擺在我們面前的任務具有挑戰性和緊迫性，但我們相信收購瑞士信貸提供了一個獨特的機會，可以為我們所有的利益相關者創造重要的長期價值。特別是，我深信這筆交易將有助於鞏固瑞士金融中心的領先地位，並有利於整個經濟。在我們開始書寫下一章之際，我期待著與我的執行團隊以及我在瑞銀和瑞士信貸的同事們合作，建立一個讓我們的客戶、員工、股東和瑞士都為之自豪的組織。有了這個，我交給莎拉。

Thank you, Sergio. Good morning, everyone. Turning on Slide 8. Our first quarter reported net profit of $1 billion included a $665 million provision related to the advanced discussions with the DOJ regarding our legacy RMBS litigation matter. On an underlying basis, we delivered solid results while maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons and against an uncertain market backdrop. Underlying profit before tax was $2.4 billion with a return on CET1 of 16.5% and a cost/income ratio of 72.8%, in line with our group targets. You will find the delta between reported and underlying performance in the appendix. Underlying revenue was down 8%, and expense was down 2%. FX impacted revenue and expense for a positive net impact of $15 million. The net credit loss expense was $38 million compared with $18 million last year, or low level, reflecting the high quality of our loan book. With 90% -- 94% collateralization, our portfolio remains very resilient in the current environment.

謝謝你，塞爾吉奧。大家，早安。打開幻燈片 8。我們第一季度報告的淨利潤為 10 億美元，其中包括與 DOJ 就我們遺留的 RMBS 訴訟事項進行的高級討論相關的 6.65 億美元撥備。在基本的基礎上，我們在所有季節和不確定的市場背景下保持資產負債表的同時取得了穩健的業績。基本稅前利潤為 24 億美元，CET1 回報率為 16.5%，成本/收入比率為 72.8%，符合我們的集團目標。您將在附錄中找到報告和基礎性能之間的差異。基礎收入下降 8%，費用下降 2%。外匯對收入和費用產生了 1500 萬美元的積極淨影響。淨信貸損失費用為 3800 萬美元，而去年為 1800 萬美元，處於較低水平，反映出我們的貸款賬簿質量很高。憑藉 90% - 94% 的抵押，我們的投資組合在當前環境下仍然非常有彈性。

Let's start with revenue on Slide 9. Our underlying revenue ex FX was down 8% with an increase from NII and GWM and P&C more than offset by lower asset base and transaction fees as well as lower IB revenue. What is driving this picture is a macroeconomic environment characterized by a decrease in equity markets as well as lower levels of client, M&A and capital market activity versus last year. However, we continue to see the benefit of higher rates and solid activity in fixed income.

讓我們從幻燈片 9 的收入開始。我們的基礎收入（外匯除外）下降了 8%，NII、GWM 和 P&C 的增長被較低的資產基礎和交易費用以及較低的 IB 收入所抵消。推動這一局面的是宏觀經濟環境，其特徵是股票市場下降以及客戶、併購和資本市場活動水平低於去年。然而，我們繼續看到更高利率和固定收益穩健活動的好處。

Moving to NII on Page 10. In the first quarter, NII of $2.2 billion was up $520 million or 31% year-on-year. Quarter-on-quarter, NII was up 3%, in line with overall guidance. This reflects the benefit of our global diversification as increases in Swiss franc and euro more than offset reductions in U.S. dollar NII. Moving to the chart in the second column. The increase was driven by the benefit of rates. This was largely offset by changes in deposit mix. Our experience this quarter is in line with the trends we have seen over the last year. Our clients have continued to shift some of their balances from Swiss into higher-yielding products. We will come back to money market funds and treasury bonds, but within deposits, clients have moved into our attractive savings accounts and CDs.

轉到第 10 頁的 NII。第一季度，NII 為 22 億美元，同比增長 5.2 億美元或 31%。 NII 環比增長 3%，符合總體指引。這反映了我們全球多元化的好處，因為瑞士法郎和歐元的增加抵消了美元 NII 的減少。轉到第二列中的圖表。這一增長是由利率的好處推動的。這在很大程度上被存款組合的變化所抵消。我們本季度的經驗與我們在去年看到的趨勢一致。我們的客戶繼續將部分餘額從瑞士轉移到收益更高的產品。我們將回到貨幣市場基金和國債，但在存款方面，客戶已經轉向我們有吸引力的儲蓄賬戶和 CD。

Moving to deposit volumes. Total deposits decreased 3% sequentially. However, it is important to note that these funds have not left our platform. At the start of the year, often based on our investment advice, we have seen clients repositioning from deposits into money market funds and treasuries within our platform. In fact, we have retained those balances. And on top of that, in GWM, we had $9 billion of net new deposits into UBS, mostly driven by the U.S. after March 10. Looking ahead, based on the current forwards, for 2Q '23, we anticipate a mid-single-digit decrease versus 1Q 2023 as slight increases in P&C are expected to be offset by reductions in GWM. We also expect the full year to be broadly in line with 4Q annualized.

轉移到存款量。總存款環比下降 3%。但是，需要注意的是，這些資金並沒有離開我們的平台。在年初，通常根據我們的投資建議，我們已經看到客戶從存款重新定位到我們平台內的貨幣市場基金和國債。事實上，我們保留了這些餘額。最重要的是，在 GWM，我們有 90 億美元的淨新存款進入瑞銀，這主要是在 3 月 10 日之後由美國推動的。展望未來，根據目前的遠期，對於 2023 年第二季度，我們預計中期單-與 2023 年第一季度相比數字有所下降，因為財產險的小幅增長預計將被 GWM 的減少所抵消。我們還預計全年將與第 4 季度的年度化大致一致。

Now turning to costs on Page 11. We had reported operating expense of $7.2 billion. This included the litigation provision mentioned earlier and $70 million acquisition costs. Excluding these and FX, this quarter's operating expense was down 1% as reductions in variable comp more than offset inflationary pressures on salaries, investments in technology, T&E and redundancy costs. On redundancy costs, we saw $68 million of expense related to initiatives across GWM, IB and AM this quarter. We expect the benefit of these actions to materialize in the following quarters. For 2023, on a stand-alone basis, we still expect cost, ex litigation and FX, to increase by net 2% to 3% year-on-year, and we are on track to deliver on our gross cost saving program of $1.1 billion.

現在轉到第 11 頁的成本。我們報告的運營費用為 72 億美元。這包括前面提到的訴訟準備金和 7000 萬美元的購置成本。不包括這些和外匯，本季度的運營費用下降了 1%，因為可變薪酬的減少抵消了工資、技術投資、T&E 和裁員成本的通脹壓力。在冗餘成本方面，本季度我們看到與 GWM、IB 和 AM 的計劃相關的費用為 6800 萬美元。我們預計這些行動的好處將在接下來的幾個季度中體現出來。對於 2023 年，我們仍然預計成本（不包括訴訟和外匯）同比淨增長 2% 至 3%，並且我們有望實現 1.1 美元的總成本節約計劃十億。

Let's move to our businesses, starting with GWM on Page 12. GWM profit before tax in the quarter was $1.2 billion. Revenue was 2% lower than last year, with asset base and transaction revenue down in all regions, partially offset by net interest income. We continue to actively manage deposits across margins, volumes and mix, driving NII up 31% year-on-year. NII was down 1% sequentially. Operating expense ex litigation and FX was flat year-on-year. We delivered net new money of $28 billion with net inflows in all regions. Net new fee-generating assets were $20 billion in the quarter, an annualized growth rate of 6%, mostly into advisory mandates and SMAs.

讓我們轉向我們的業務，從第 12 頁的 GWM 開始。GWM 本季度的稅前利潤為 12 億美元。收入比去年下降 2%，所有地區的資產基礎和交易收入均有所下降，部分被淨利息收入所抵消。我們繼續積極管理利潤率、數量和組合的存款，推動 NII 同比增長 31%。 NII 環比下跌 1%。不包括訴訟和外彙的營業費用同比持平。我們在所有地區提供了 280 億美元的淨新資金淨流入。本季度淨新增收費資產為 200 億美元，年增長率為 6%，主要用於諮詢授權和 SMA。

Moving to Asset Management on Page 13 with a profit before tax of $94 million. Total revenue decreased 13%, with lower net management fees driven by market headwinds, asset mix and FX as well as lower performance fees net of the pass-through referred to on this page. The cost/income ratio was 81%, with lower revenue, and operating expense up 1%. The team has taken action to address this negative operating leverage, the benefits of which you will see in the coming quarters. Net new money in the quarter was $14 billion, delivering a strong net new money annualized growth rate of over 5%. This includes $18 billion into money markets as we successfully captured client demand for cash (inaudible) solutions.

轉到第 13 頁的資產管理，稅前利潤為 9400 萬美元。總收入下降 13%，受市場逆風、資產組合和外彙的影響，淨管理費用下降，以及本頁提到的扣除轉嫁後的績效費用下降。成本收入比為 81%，收入減少，營業費用增加 1%。該團隊已採取行動解決這種負面的運營槓桿問題，您將在未來幾個季度看到其帶來的好處。本季度淨新資金為 140 億美元，實現了超過 5% 的強勁淨新資金年化增長率。這包括 180 億美元投入貨幣市場，因為我們成功地捕捉到了客戶對現金（聽不清）解決方案的需求。

Now on to the IB on Slide 14. The IB delivered $477 million in profit before tax and a 15% return on attributed equity. Revenue in Global Markets of $2 billion was down 15% ex FX against a record first quarter last year. In Equities, activity level decreased in all regions, particularly in Equity Derivatives and Cash Equities. Despite this, we delivered the best quarter on record in our prime brokerage and a very strong performance in EFX. With very different market conditions versus the beginning of last year, we were up 1% in FRC, with credit more than offsetting FX and rates. Global Banking revenue was down 30% as the positive momentum at the start of the year was interrupted by the sudden uptick in uncertainty in financials in March, affecting client sentiment. Against this backdrop, we outperformed the global people with particular strength in APAC and EMEA. Within M&A, we saw market outperformance across all regions. Operating expense was down 5% ex litigation and FX, primarily driven by lower variable compensation and with cost savings initiatives largely offsetting inflationary pressures on salaries.

現在轉到幻燈片 14 上的 IB。IB 實現了 4.77 億美元的稅前利潤和 15% 的歸屬股本回報率。全球市場收入為 20 億美元，與去年創紀錄的第一季度相比下降了 15%（不含外匯）。在股票方面，所有地區的活動水平都有所下降，尤其是股票衍生品和現金股票。儘管如此，我們在大宗經紀業務中實現了有記錄以來最好的季度，並且在 EFX 方面表現非常強勁。由於市場條件與去年初截然不同，我們的 FRC 上漲了 1%，信貸多於抵消外彙和利率。全球銀行業務收入下降了 30%，原因是年初的積極勢頭被 3 月份金融不確定性的突然上升打斷，影響了客戶情緒。在此背景下，我們在亞太地區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區表現優於全球人民。在併購方面，我們看到所有地區的市場都表現出色。不包括訴訟和外匯，運營費用下降了 5%，這主要是由於可變薪酬較低以及成本節約舉措在很大程度上抵消了工資的通貨膨脹壓力。

Wrapping up on the businesses with the excellent performance in P&C on Page 15. Profit before tax in the first quarter was CHF 553 million, the best quarter in almost 15 years when excluding one-off gains. This result was largely driven by 32% higher NII. Overall, total revenue rose 18% year-on-year, including record transaction-based income and stable recurring fees. We consistently engaged with our clients and were able to deliver CHF 860 million of net new investment products, an annualized growth rate of 16%. We also saw CHF 1.7 billion of net new loans, while net new deposits were negative CHF 1.8 billion as positive flows in Personal Banking were more than offset by outflows in corporate and institutional clients, mainly driven by investment activities. We delivered a cost/income ratio of 52%, a 7 percentage point improvement year-over-year. This reflects 5% higher cost, largely reflecting technology investments. This consistent focus on our digital transformation continues to pay off. We saw an 11 percentage point increase year-on-year in the share of personal banking clients that are active mobile users which benefits our clients and creates operational efficiencies.

總結第 15 頁財產和意外險中表現出色的業務。第一季度稅前利潤為 5.53 億瑞士法郎，如果不包括一次性收益，這是近 15 年來最好的季度。這一結果主要是由於 NII 提高了 32%。總體而言，總收入同比增長 18%，包括創紀錄的交易收入和穩定的經常性費用。我們始終如一地與客戶接洽，交付了 8.6 億瑞士法郎的淨新投資產品，年增長率為 16%。我們還看到 17 億瑞士法郎的淨新增貸款，而淨新增存款為負 18 億瑞士法郎，這是因為個人銀行業務的正流量被主要由投資活動驅動的企業和機構客戶的流出所抵消。我們實現了 52% 的成本/收入比率，同比提高 7 個百分點。這反映出成本增加了 5%，主要反映了技術投資。這種對我們數字化轉型的持續關注繼續得到回報。我們發現活躍移動用戶的個人銀行客戶比例同比增長 11 個百分點，這使我們的客戶受益並提高了運營效率。

Now moving to Slide 16. At times of uncertainty, our clients continued to turn to UBS as a safe harbor. We have a strong capital and liquidity position, risk management and a balance sheet for all seasons. As we continue to prudently manage our resources, we maintained healthy liquidity buffers with an LCR of 162% and an NSFR of 118%, broadly stable Q-on-Q. We maintained $144 billion cash balances, which is 29% of deposits and more than half of our HQLA. In total, 90% of our HQLA qualifies as Level 1 which is the highest quality of liquid assets. In line with our liquidity management principles, we continue to target a diversified funding mix across regions and products, including deposit types. UBS has not tapped into any of the SMB facilities and we expect to continue not to do so.

現在轉到幻燈片 16。在不確定時期，我們的客戶繼續將瑞銀視為安全港。我們擁有強大的資本和流動性頭寸、風險管理和四季皆宜的資產負債表。由於我們繼續審慎管理我們的資源，我們保持了健康的流動性緩衝，LCR 為 162%，NSFR 為 118%，環比基本穩定。我們保持著 1,440 億美元的現金餘額，佔存款的 29%，占我們 HQLA 的一半以上。總的來說，我們 90% 的 HQLA 符合 1 級，這是最高質量的流動資產。根據我們的流動性管理原則，我們繼續以跨地區和產品（包括存款類型）的多元化融資組合為目標。瑞銀尚未利用任何 SMB 設施，我們預計將繼續不這樣做。

Moving to capital on Page 17. At 13.9%, we continue to have a strong capital position, comfortably above our 13% guidance and 10.4% regulatory requirement. On the walk, starting at 14.2% at the end of last quarter, net profit contributed 30 basis points, offset by capital returns to our shareholders at around 50 basis points. The net currency effect was close to nil quarter-on-quarter as the FX impact on CET1 and RWA offset each other. In the first quarter, we have repurchased $1.3 billion of shares. While we remain committed to our capital return policy, including progressive dividends and buybacks, we have temporarily suspended share repurchases in light of the planned acquisition of Crédit Suisse and we intend to resume them as soon as possible.

轉到第 17 頁的資本。在 13.9%，我們繼續擁有強大的資本狀況，輕鬆高於我們 13% 的指導和 10.4% 的監管要求。從上季度末的 14.2% 開始，淨利潤貢獻了 30 個基點，被股東的資本回報率約 50 個基點所抵消。由於外匯對 CET1 和 RWA 的影響相互抵消，淨貨幣影響環比接近於零。第一季度，我們回購了價值 13 億美元的股票。雖然我們仍然致力於我們的資本回報政策，包括累進股息和回購，但鑑於計劃收購瑞士信貸，我們已暫停股票回購，我們打算盡快恢復。

On Slide 18, as you heard from Sergio, we are committed to providing as much transparency as possible as information becomes available. On this slide, we summarize the sequence of disclosures. Let me highlight a few items. The first column refers to the registration statement with the SEC, which is a requirement for the close. It will include pro forma financials as of December 31, 2022. Assuming we close as expected in the second quarter, 2Q earnings will include consolidated financial statements for the combined group under IFRS and in U.S. dollars. And in order for us to have time to prepare that information, our earnings date is likely to change. After that, we plan to update you regularly.

在幻燈片 18 上，正如您從 Sergio 那裡聽到的那樣，我們致力於在信息可用時提供盡可能多的透明度。在這張幻燈片上，我們總結了披露的順序。讓我強調幾個項目。第一列是指在美國證券交易委員會的註冊聲明，這是關閉的要求。它將包括截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的備考財務數據。假設我們在第二季度按預期結束，第二季度收益將包括合併後的集團根據 IFRS 和美元的合併財務報表。為了讓我們有時間準備這些信息，我們的收益日期可能會改變。之後，我們計劃定期為您更新。

Wrapping up. In 1Q '23, we delivered a solid set of underlying results with strong flows as clients continue to turn to us for advice and stability in uncertain times. Looking ahead, the acquisition of Crédit Suisse is a great opportunity to accelerate our strategic plans. We will execute the work that needs to be done with discipline while remaining focused on delivering for our clients, shareholders and all other stakeholders. With that, let's open up for questions.

包起來。在 23 年第一季度，隨著客戶在不確定時期繼續向我們尋求建議和穩定性，我們提供了一組穩固的基礎結果和強勁的流量。展望未來，收購瑞士信貸是加速我們戰略計劃的絕佳機會。我們將嚴格執行需要完成的工作，同時繼續專注於為我們的客戶、股東和所有其他利益相關者提供服務。有了這個，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自高盛的 Chris Hallam。

Firstly, on the future capital requirements, at the time of the announcement, FINMA said that a larger bank would require higher capital buffers. Have you had any further clarity on the size of that increase in capital requirement and particularly to what extent those higher capital requirements may be influenced by the ultimate perimeter of the group? And I suppose any thoughts you have around how those decisions will ultimately feed into the timing of future capital return decisions? That's the first question. And then secondly, in the report this morning, you've outlined that the emergency ordinance provides for the loss sharing agreement with the Swiss Confederation but that the emergency ordinance will expire within 6 months of its issuance date, after which time those measures would need to be codified into law by the Swiss Parliament. Does that mean that the loss-sharing guarantees still are effectively subject to parliamentary approval in 6 months' time? And if so, what are your confidence levels in getting those approvals?

首先，關於未來的資本要求，在發佈公告時，FINMA 表示，規模較大的銀行將需要更高的資本緩衝。您是否進一步明確了資本要求增加的規模，特別是這些更高的資本要求在多大程度上可能受到集團最終邊界的影響？我想你對這些決定最終將如何影響未來資本回報決定的時間有什麼想法嗎？這是第一個問題。其次，在今天上午的報告中，您概述了緊急法令規定與瑞士聯邦簽訂損失分攤協議，但緊急法令將在其發布之日起 6 個月內到期，之後這些措施將需要由瑞士議會編纂為法律。這是否意味著損失分擔擔保在 6 個月後仍需有效地獲得議會批准？如果是這樣，您獲得這些批准的信心水平是多少？

Okay. Thank you. On capital requirements, the situation will be clearer once we determine the scope and perimeter of the activities we will run, particularly in respect of noncore activities and also with the businesses that we will exit. This will, of course, have an impact on op risk capital charges and so on. So I think this is one of the issues that Sarah referred to. When we have more clarity on all those aspects, we will communicate. But I don't expect this to be something substantial that will take away the merits and the value accretion and creation of this transaction. In respect of the guarantee, we have little doubt that what we have agreed with the government is enforceable. Of course, there is a process in place to define exactly the details of this guarantee, and we do expect this to be done in the next couple of months, but we are not concerned about the enforceability of the guarantee as part -- as an integral part of our agreements over the weekend to step in, in this situation.

好的。謝謝。在資本要求方面，一旦我們確定了我們將開展的活動的範圍和範圍，情況就會更加明朗，特別是在非核心活動以及我們將退出的業務方面。當然，這將對操作風險資本費用等產生影響。所以我認為這是 Sarah 提到的問題之一。當我們對所有這些方面都更加清楚時，我們將進行溝通。但我不認為這會成為實質性的東西，會帶走這項交易的優點和價值增值和創造。就擔保而言，我們毫不懷疑我們與政府達成的協議是可執行的。當然，有一個流程可以準確定義此保證的細節，我們確實希望在接下來的幾個月內完成，但我們並不擔心作為一部分的保證的可執行性——作為一個在這種情況下，週末介入是我們協議的組成部分。

Your next question is from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

Yes. The first one is related to the book value per share guidance that you gave of a 74% increase at day 1. Just wondering if that still holds, first of all, at this point? Or has that changed post your further analysis? And in that context, should we assume that the purchase accounting, restructuring, asset management, et cetera, should be captured by the reserves that is being built of what we estimate $21 billion? The second question is in relation to more top-down, how we should think about the impact on clients at this point and also retention of clients, especially in wealth management at this point already, and how we should think about retention of clients post event the clients that have left. How should we think about your position after that?

是的。第一個與您給出的第 1 天增長 74% 的每股賬面價值指導有關。只是想知道這是否仍然成立，首先，在這一點上？還是在您進一步分析後發生了變化？在這種情況下，我們是否應該假設採購會計、重組、資產管理等應該被我們估計為 210 億美元的正在建設的儲備所捕獲？第二個問題是關於自上而下的，我們應該如何考慮此時對客戶的影響以及客戶的保留，尤其是在財富管理方面，我們應該如何考慮事後客戶的保留離開的客戶。在那之後我們應該如何考慮你的立場？

So Sarah, take of care the first question. I'll take the second.

Sarah，請注意第一個問題。我要第二個。

So when we gave you the 74%, we focused intentionally on what would be the economic impact, i.e., what impacts CET1. And if you continue to do it that way, actually, the numbers are very stable. Of course, we're continuing to do the work on the PPA, and we're going to continue to do so. And the PPA was, of course, included in the estimates that we had given you.

所以當我們給你 74% 時，我們有意關注經濟影響，即影響 CET1 的因素。如果你繼續這樣做，實際上，數字非常穩定。當然，我們將繼續在 PPA 上開展工作，我們將繼續這樣做。當然，PPA 包含在我們給您的估算中。

And okay -- and sorry just to -- sorry, if I may. Just that the 74% also includes but that clearly not includes additional charges to the P&L. And the rest all comes through the P&L, we should assume.

好吧 - 抱歉只是 - 抱歉，如果可以的話。只是 74% 還包括但顯然不包括損益表的額外費用。我們應該假設，其餘的都來自損益表。

That's right. The initial PPA comes into the CET1 or the tangible book value per share and anything that is beyond that comes through the P&L.

這是正確的。初始 PPA 進入 CET1 或每股有形賬面價值，超出此範圍的任何內容都通過損益表計算。

So on client retention, I -- maybe let me reiterate that if you look at our inflows, and in general, we don't have an issue with our current clients. And we do believe that in many areas where we were underweighted on a share-of-wallet basis, we will be able to convince clients that the combined organization is offering a better value. In some areas, of course, we will lose clients because their concentration is going to be too high. And last but not least, I do believe that while history doesn't really always repeat itself, we are also convinced that many of the clients that were maybe nervous or concerned about what happened at Crédit Suisse in the last few months but also post the transaction we will regain faith and we will be able to get some of these assets back. So I'm totally convinced that our growth and our ability not only to retain but to regain clients will be there once we are able to articulate the value proposition that the combined organizations can bring to fruits.

所以關於客戶保留，我 - 也許讓我重申一下，如果你看看我們的流入，總的來說，我們對當前客戶沒有問題。而且我們確實相信，在我們基於錢包份額的基礎上被低估的許多領域，我們將能夠說服客戶合併後的組織提供更好的價值。當然，在某些地區，我們會失去客戶，因為他們的集中度太高了。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我確實相信，雖然歷史並不總是重演，但我們也相信，許多可能對過去幾個月瑞士信貸發生的事情感到緊張或擔憂的客戶也發布了交易我們將重拾信心，我們將能夠取回其中一些資產。因此，我完全相信，一旦我們能夠闡明合併後的組織可以帶來成果的價值主張，我們的增長和我們不僅保留而且重新獲得客戶的能力將會存在。

Your next question is from Ryan Alastair from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ryan Alastair。

Yes. Welcome back, Sergio. On the comments you made on the Bloomberg TV interview earlier about the importance of centrality of ongoing profitability, and which was absolutely borne out in recent months. Clearly, the combined group has an exceptionally strong capital position on a pro forma basis which gives you the opportunity to move quite quickly in 2 ways, 1 in sort of actual affecting the merger, and so in taking financial reserves against that. So should we think about going quickly is essential to your plans because you've got the financial conditions to do it. Clearly, that was something that Crédit Suisse did not enjoy. They had some ambitions to restructure, they needed to pass through the P&L over time which constrained their profitability a long way into the future.

是的。歡迎回來，塞爾吉奧。關於你早些時候在彭博電視採訪中就持續盈利能力的重要性發表的評論，這在最近幾個月得到了絕對證實。顯然，合併後的集團在備考基礎上擁有異常強大的資本狀況，這讓您有機會以兩種方式快速行動，一種是實際影響合併，然後是為此採取財務儲備。因此，我們是否應該考慮快速行動對您的計劃至關重要，因為您有足夠的財務條件來做到這一點。顯然，這是瑞士信貸不喜歡的事情。他們有一些重組的雄心，他們需要隨著時間的推移通過損益表，這在很長一段時間內限制了他們的盈利能力。

Thank you, Ryan. It's good to be back to interact with you as well. Is -- look, yes, what we need to do now as we go through the PPA assessment and the marks of the position we find, you can assume that the philosophy of running down noncore assets will be the same you saw in the past based on cost of capital. So if we are able to dispose, to restructure any transaction that create a loss that is lower than the cost of our capital, we will do so without any doubt, any fears of taking upfront losses. So it's precisely -- so as you mentioned, that the profitability and the strength we have in our underlying business combined allows us this flexibility to control our destiny. I think it's very important that not to treat those positions as distressed assets but rather noncore assets. And therefore, an economic consideration has to be put in place. So every time we can do a transaction that, in our view, reduces risk but also frees up capital below our cost of equity, we will do that. And I guess this is something that now we -- it takes time for us to go deeper into the analysis of what it is, but this is something I'd like to clarify as quickly as possible, what it is. So you can assume that one of our top priorities to clarify a path of -- for us to take down those -- free up this capital going forward and also reduce risk.

謝謝你，瑞安。很高興回來與您互動。是 - 看，是的，我們現在需要做的是我們通過 PPA 評估和我們找到的位置標記，你可以假設減少非核心資產的理念將與你過去看到的相同關於資金成本。因此，如果我們能夠處置、重組任何造成的損失低於我們的資本成本的交易，我們將毫無疑問地這樣做，不必擔心承擔前期損失。因此，正如您所提到的，我們在基礎業務中的盈利能力和實力相結合，使我們能夠靈活地控制自己的命運。我認為，不要將這些頭寸視為不良資產，而是將其視為非核心資產，這一點非常重要。因此，必須考慮經濟因素。因此，每當我們可以進行一項交易時，在我們看來，它既可以降低風險，又可以釋放低於股本成本的資本，我們就會這樣做。我想這是現在我們——我們需要時間來深入分析它是什麼，但這是我想盡快澄清的事情，它是什麼。因此，您可以假設我們的首要任務之一是澄清一條道路——讓我們取消這些道路——釋放未來的資金並降低風險。

Your next question is from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Flora Bocahut。

Yes. And the first question I wanted to ask you is regarding the net new money, so the net new FGA. You gave us some details, including post the 10 business days that followed the announcement of the deal, and thank you for that. I don't think I've seen any comments around the trend in April, so just wanted to ask you what trends you've seen in terms of the customer behavior and especially regarding the NNFGA as well as customer deposits since the quarter ended about 3 weeks ago. And then I just wanted to come back to the risk around the concentration risk around clients and the overlap on the client base. You made interesting comments regarding the fact that you are underweight certain client segments versus peers and where you can gain from that transaction, that is other client segments which could lose. Can you maybe provide us more details? Do you mean in wealth management specifically? Also in P&C? Can you maybe comment on those client segments?

是的。我想問你的第一個問題是關於淨新資金，即淨新 FGA。你給了我們一些細節，包括發布交易公告後的 10 個工作日，謝謝你。我認為我沒有看到任何關於 4 月份趨勢的評論，所以只是想問一下您在客戶行為方面看到了什麼趨勢，尤其是自本季度結束以來關於 NNFGA 以及客戶存款的趨勢3個星期前。然後我只想回到圍繞客戶集中風險和客戶群重疊的風險。您就某些客戶群相對於同行的權重偏低這一事實發表了有趣的評論，以及您可以從該交易中獲益的地方，即可能會損失的其他客戶群。你能不能給我們提供更多的細節？你是指具體的財富管理嗎？也在財產險中？您能否評論一下這些客戶群？

So on the first question in terms of the trends of April, we really haven't seen anything that is particularly abnormal or special. And so as such, it is not our custom to guide and we will stay with that.

那麼關於第一個問題，從4月份的走勢來看，我們確實沒有看到有什麼特別不正常或者特別的地方。因此，指導不是我們的習慣，我們將堅持下去。

Yes. On the client side, I mean, if you look at, for example, in Asia, I think it's clear that UBS has perhaps a stronger franchise in North Asia and Crédit Suisse has a stronger franchise, relatively speaking, in Southeast Asia. So I think that the combination of the 2 is very complementary. Latin America, I mean, in Latin America, we definitely have a situation in which Crédit Suisse brings a significant value to our platform. And there that will make us, if not the leader of non-Latin American players, very close to that, so a significant step forward. In respect to Switzerland, I would say that usually, SMEs have a relationship with maybe one of the large bank and with a Kantonalbank or a regional bank. So it's -- there is a high likelihood that the same SMEs don't really have an equal relationship with the 2 large banks. For that reason, we believe that many of them can be captured.

是的。在客戶方面，我的意思是，如果你看一下，例如在亞洲，我認為很明顯瑞銀在北亞可能擁有更強的特許經營權，而瑞士信貸在東南亞擁有更強的特許經營權。所以我認為2者的結合是非常互補的。拉丁美洲，我的意思是，在拉丁美洲，我們肯定有瑞士信貸為我們的平台帶來重要價值的情況。這將使我們，即使不是非拉丁美洲玩家的領導者，也非常接近這一點，因此向前邁出了重要的一步。關於瑞士，我想說的是，通常，中小企業可能與其中一家大型銀行以及 Kantonalbank 或地區銀行有關係。所以它 - 同樣的中小企業很可能與兩家大銀行沒有真正的平等關係。出於這個原因，我們相信他們中的許多人可以被捕獲。

Same issue for retail and personal clients banking. If people have 2 relationships, usually they have it with a local bank and with a large bank. So also there. And last but not least, I would say that it's fair to say that Crédit Suisse has a strong franchise in large corporates in Switzerland, which is also complementary to our own. So after all, as I said, both in terms of current business mix, but also going back to my remarks, in Switzerland, there are 250 banks, it's plenty of competition, plenty of Kantonalbanks, plenty of Raiffeisen banks and, therefore, we believe that we will be able to manage this competitive landscape, which is not easy for us, through service, quality and what we can do differently than others rather than just purely size.

零售和個人客戶銀行業務也存在同樣的問題。如果人們有 2 種關係，通常他們與當地銀行和大型銀行有關係。所以也有。最後但並非最不重要的是，我想說，瑞士信貸在瑞士的大型企業中擁有強大的特許經營權，這也是對我們自身的補充。所以畢竟，正如我所說，無論是就當前的業務組合而言，還是回到我的發言，在瑞士，有 250 家銀行，競爭非常激烈，有很多 Kantonalbanks，很多 Raiffeisen 銀行，因此，我們相信我們將能夠通過服務、質量以及我們可以做的與其他人不同的事情，而不僅僅是單純的規模，來管理這個對我們來說並不容易的競爭格局。

Your next question is from Andrew Coombs from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗的安德魯庫姆斯。

Two questions. Firstly, just on Slide 10, in your revised net interest income outlook. Q1, you've seen a slight increase in NII. So you're then guiding to a mid-single-digit decrease for Q2. So it implies Q2 will be slightly below the Q4 run rate. Implicitly, this seems to suggest that Q3, Q4 is roughly then going to be stable based on your full year guidance. So I'm interested in your thoughts on the offset between rate hikes and then most important of all deposit migration to money marketed funds in future quarters given that we're closing in on peak rates, it seems to imply you're assuming that the deposit migration also slows, but would welcome any commentary on that. And then my second question is actually on the liquidity coverage ratio. I think there's an active debate as to whether it's calibrated correctly in light of recent events, particularly the 10% weighting that's applied to less stable retail deposits. So interested in any conversations you've had on that, either with FINMA or the Basel Committee. And likewise, does that mean you're going to continue to run with an LCR of north of 160% given the potential that, that ratio might be recalibrated?

兩個問題。首先，就在幻燈片 10 上，在您修改後的淨利息收入展望中。 Q1，你看到 NII 略有增加。因此，您將指導第二季度出現中等個位數的下降。因此，這意味著第二季度的運行率將略低於第四季度。隱含地，這似乎表明，根據您的全年指導，第三季度、第四季度大致會保持穩定。所以我很想知道你對加息之間的抵消以及未來幾個季度最重要的存款遷移到貨幣市場基金之間的想法，因為我們正在接近峰值利率，這似乎意味著你假設存款遷移也在放緩，但歡迎對此發表任何評論。然後我的第二個問題實際上是關於流動性覆蓋率。我認為關於它是否根據最近發生的事件正確校準存在激烈的爭論，尤其是適用於不太穩定的零售存款的 10% 權重。對您與 FINMA 或巴塞爾委員會就此進行的任何對話非常感興趣。同樣，這是否意味著您將繼續以 160% 以上的 LCR 運行，因為該比率可能會被重新校準？

So on the first quarter -- the first question, what you've seen is some very significant mix shift throughout the system. So $600 billion of Fed data shows that the whole system had the 3% sequential decrease that we saw. So that is -- it's not expected to be that dramatic going forward, but we certainly have planned for the annualization of that in our numbers. And then after that, you see some normal patterns that happen, but we continue to see some shift, as you would expect, but potentially not at the level that was seen at the beginning of the year. It's also important to know that, for us, it was really the beginning of the year that was that pattern. So actually, January, February, where we saw a lot of mix shift. And actually some of the net inflows into the platforms from deposits were in March.

所以在第一季度 - 第一個問題，你看到的是整個系統中一些非常重要的混合轉變。因此，6000 億美元的美聯儲數據顯示，整個系統出現了我們所看到的 3% 的環比下降。所以這就是 - 預計未來不會那麼戲劇化，但我們當然已經計劃在我們的數字中進行年度化。然後在那之後，你會看到一些正常的模式發生，但我們繼續看到一些變化，正如你所期望的那樣，但可能不會達到年初的水平。同樣重要的是要知道，對我們來說，這確實是年初的那種模式。所以實際上，一月、二月，我們看到了很多混合變化。實際上，一些存款淨流入平台是在 3 月份。

In terms of the second quarter guidance, you've noted that we're going to be down, and that is exactly correct, with P&C being slightly up and GWM, which is where those mix shifts are happening, being a bit down. And then as you pointed out, mathematically, that does mean that there is some level of stability over the course of the year thereafter.

就第二季度的指導而言，您已經註意到我們將會下降，這是完全正確的，P&C 略有上升，而 GWM 正在發生這些混合轉變，這有點下降。然後正如您指出的那樣，從數學上講，這確實意味著此後一年中存在一定程度的穩定性。

LCR.

液晶電阻。

In terms of LCR, we believe that we are calibrated correctly because what you're seeing also is that for us the changes in deposits have actually not done very much in terms of the change of LCR because we very much know what type of deposits are going to be sticky versus not sticky and so we calculate as such. And of course, you've seen us very consistently being at those high levels, and we don't have an intention to drop sharply regardless of the dialogue that could happen around the LCR calculations.

就 LCR 而言，我們認為我們的校準是正確的，因為您還看到，對我們來說，存款的變化實際上並沒有對 LCR 的變化產生太大影響，因為我們非常了解存款的類型粘性與不粘性，所以我們這樣計算。當然，你已經看到我們一直處於那些高水平，而且無論圍繞 LCR 計算可能發生的對話，我們都無意大幅下降。

Your next question is from Adam Terelak from Mediobanca.

你的下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Adam Terelak。

I've got two. One is a bit of a follow-up on LCR and on your long-term funding strategy. Clearly, LCR stand-alone is pretty strong. If you look at the business you're acquiring, then it's really propped up by big SMB liquidity line. Their deposits are very, very low, loan-to-deposit is what, 157%. So I was just wondering how you're thinking about your long-term funding strategy through the acquisition and how you might deal with kind of the flight of deposits that they have seen and how you could integrate that into your liquidity model going forward? And then second, on a slightly different topic, in GWM, you've got flat costs on lower revenues and a favorable revenue mix with NII up and fees down, normally that's a good mix for your cost base. Could you just discuss a little bit more what's going on in there? What sort of inflation you're seeing, whether there is an increased competition for relationship managers and whether that's changing given the new environment.

我有兩個。一個是對 LCR 和你的長期融資策略的一些跟進。顯然，LCR 單機版非常強大。如果你看看你正在收購的業務，那麼它確實是由大型 SMB 流動資金線支撐的。他們的存款非常非常低，貸存比是 157%。所以我只是想知道你如何通過收購來考慮你的長期融資戰略，你如何處理他們看到的那種存款外逃，以及你如何將其整合到你未來的流動性模型中？其次，在一個略有不同的主題上，在 GWM 中，你的收入較低，成本固定，收入組合有利，NII 上升，費用下降，通常這對你的成本基礎來說是一個很好的組合。你能再多討論一下里面發生了什麼嗎？您看到了什麼樣的通貨膨脹，對客戶經理的競爭是否加劇，以及在新環境下這種情況是否正在發生變化。

So on the LCR and, more generally, the funding plan, as we integrate CS, today, they are a user of the SME facilities, it will be our intention, certainly, to manage that down as quickly as possible, but recognizing the gap that you're pointing out and we will indicate that as soon as ready. In terms of the GWM story, what you're seeing is, as noted, a very strong NII performance in asset base is the combination of the market levels as well as a little bit of the margin compression that has happened over the year, which is just a mix topic that we have discussed. And then in terms of the transaction activity, not yet very elevated just based on the level of uncertainty that our clients are dealing with. And then what you have seen though is on the expense side, that we have good rigor where the expense ex FX is -- and litigation is flat. And so you are offsetting those inflationary pressures by the good rigor that we are seeing and this is while continuing to be on the offense in terms of our FA recruitment and organic growth.

因此，在 LCR 以及更廣泛的資助計劃上，當我們整合 CS 時，今天，他們是 SME 設施的用戶，當然，我們的意圖是盡快將其管理下來，但認識到差距你指出的，我們會在準備好後儘快指出。就 GWM 的故事而言，如前所述，您所看到的是，NII 在資產基礎上非常強勁的表現是市場水平以及一年中發生的一點利潤率壓縮的結合，這只是我們討論過的一個混合話題。然後就交易活動而言，僅根據我們客戶正在處理的不確定性水平，還沒有非常高。然後你所看到的是在費用方面，我們在費用 ex FX 方面非常嚴格 - 訴訟是持平的。因此，您正在通過我們所看到的良好嚴謹來抵消這些通脹壓力，同時在我們的 FA 招聘和有機增長方面繼續進攻。

Okay. So the inflationary pressure there sounds quite high to be managed down.

好的。因此，那裡的通脹壓力聽起來相當高，需要加以控制。

That's right, it's being managed by the offsets. And we've done some actions, which I've mentioned, which in total are helping us more on the forward quarters than in the current quarter and are also affecting the quarter and are still included in our cost being flat. So really a good performance.

沒錯，它是由偏移量管理的。我們已經採取了一些行動，我已經提到過，這些行動總體上對我們未來季度的幫助比對當前季度的幫助更大，並且也在影響該季度，並且仍然包含在我們的成本中。所以真的是一個很好的表現。

Your next question is from Jeremy Sigee from BNP.

你的下一個問題來自 BNP 的 Jeremy Sigee。

Welcome back to Sergio from me as well. I just wanted to pick up on a couple of topics that you've touched on already. Firstly, you talked about the Swiss banks' combined market share. I wanted to clarify, is your plan to fully integrate the 2 networks under a single brand, single product range, single network, back-office, head office? And then secondly, you also touched on the risk shelter. If I read the documents, it seems narrowly defined, so that it won't cover things like litigation, restructuring or indeed the operating cost of noncore, only asset disposal losses. So it seems relatively unlikely to be drawn. So I just wanted to ask, is your base case that you will draw on that risk shelter or that you also agree it's unlikely that you will draw on that risk shelter?

也歡迎我回到塞爾吉奧。我只想談談你已經談到的幾個話題。首先，您談到了瑞士銀行的合併市場份額。我想澄清一下，您是否計劃在單一品牌、單一產品範圍、單一網絡、後台辦公室和總部下完全整合這兩個網絡？其次，您還談到了風險庇護所。如果我閱讀這些文件，它的定義似乎很狹隘，因此它不會涵蓋訴訟、重組或非核心業務的運營成本等內容，僅涵蓋資產處置損失。所以被抽中的可能性似乎比較小。所以我只想問，您的基本情況是您將利用該風險庇護所，還是您也同意您不太可能利用該風險庇護所？

Thank you, Jeremy. Look, the base plan that we announced on day 1, when we announced the transaction was, of course, the full integration. But we reiterated afterwards, and I did it also before, that we are now evaluating what is the best option for the combined businesses going forward. I personally and we believe the -- also that there is no real issue in terms of oversized presence within our market share topics, I mean, for the reason I mentioned before. We may have to balance what is the best things to do from a shareholder standpoint of view with other aspects, we will take in serious consideration what is the best interest of clients, what is the best interest of employees and overall for society. Having said that, what we need to do is also to make those decisions based on facts and not emotions. Right now, the discussion is totally based on emotions, in many cases, totally uninformed. And we need ourselves to understand better those issues before we come to a conclusion. And it's very important not to jump into any conclusion. Whatever we do has to be sustainable and viable. And therefore, it takes a little bit of time, but it won't take forever. We know that both employees, clients and, in general, you, as well, you want to have and we want to have as quickly as possible clarity on what to do. So be patient, in the next few months, we will create more clarity on the matter.

謝謝你，傑里米。看，我們在第一天宣布交易時宣布的基本計劃當然是完全整合。但我們後來重申，我之前也重申過，我們現在正在評估什麼是合併後業務發展的最佳選擇。我個人和我們相信——我的意思是，出於我之前提到的原因，在我們的市場份額主題中存在超大存在沒有真正的問題。我們可能需要從股東的角度平衡什麼是最好的事情和其他方面，我們會認真考慮什麼是客戶的最佳利益，什麼是員工的最佳利益以及整個社會的最佳利益。話雖如此，我們還需要做的是根據事實而不是情緒做出這些決定。現在，討論完全基於情緒，在許多情況下，完全是不知情的。在我們得出結論之前，我們需要自己更好地理解這些問題。非常重要的是不要妄下任何結論。無論我們做什麼，都必須是可持續的和可行的。因此，這需要一點時間，但不會花很長時間。我們知道，無論是員工、客戶，還是一般的您，都希望擁有並且我們希望盡快明確該做什麼。所以請耐心等待，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將更加清楚地說明這個問題。

In terms of risks, of course, you're right. I mean, first of all, we have to realize that any losses that are coming outside the noncore units are part -- will be absorbed by UBS. So the only item that is subject to the guarantee is the noncore unit. And the first $5 billion of losses coming from that unit is on UBS. So we have almost, by default, an interest to be prudent in the way we mark this position and sustainable in the way we look at how we dispose those positions. But at the same time, we are also the one that want to preserve value for our shareholders. So we will avoid -- we will try to avoid at any cost having to tap into the guarantees. But at this stage, it's premature to discuss if we have to do it when we have to do it. This is also a matter that needs to be closed as quickly as possible in terms of creating clarity. So the next couple of months there will also be very important for us to fully understand the exposures, and I'm convinced that this can be done in the time frame that I just outlined.

當然，就風險而言，你是對的。我的意思是，首先，我們必須意識到，非核心部門以外的任何損失都是一部分——將由瑞銀吸收。因此，唯一受保證的項目是非核心單位。該部門的前 50 億美元虧損是在瑞銀身上。因此，默認情況下，我們幾乎有興趣在我們標記這個位置的方式上保持謹慎，並在我們看待如何處理這些位置的方式上保持可持續。但與此同時，我們也希望為股東保留價值。因此，我們將避免 - 我們將不惜一切代價盡量避免使用擔保。但現階段討論該做的時候該不該做還為時過早。就創造清晰度而言，這也是一個需要盡快關閉的問題。因此，接下來的幾個月對於我們充分了解風險也非常重要，我相信這可以在我剛剛概述的時間範圍內完成。

Your next question is from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的 Anke Reingen。

The first is just about the mechanics as you pay with the treasury shares, if there's a difference versus your new share issuance just yes conceptually and in terms of the impact. And then secondly, just a different question. On your commercial real estate exposure, can you give us a bit more detail on the regional mix, potentially maturity profile, LTV and so on?

首先是關於你用庫存股支付的機制，如果與你的新股發行存在差異，那麼在概念上和影響方面都是肯定的。其次，只是一個不同的問題。關於您的商業房地產風險，您能否向我們提供更多有關區域組合、潛在成熟度概況、LTV 等的詳細信息？

So on the treasury share, what happened is we actually repurchased some of the shares, and they are available. They could have been canceled. And what we're doing is we're using them for the purpose of this acquisition. So we are not issuing any new shares. In terms of commercial real estate, we have a very conservative portfolio that is -- that has exposure to Switzerland in particular. But -- and all of that is according to what you see from us with the high collateralization that you would expect. And when we give you all of our levels of reserves, we certainly reflect on the very high quality of those portfolio.

所以在庫存股上，我們實際上回購了一些股票，它們是可用的。他們本可以被取消。我們正在做的是將它們用於此次收購的目的。所以我們不會發行任何新股。在商業房地產方面，我們有一個非常保守的投資組合，尤其是在瑞士。但是——所有這一切都是根據你從我們這裡看到的，以及你所期望的高抵押率。當我們向您提供我們所有的儲備水平時，我們當然會反映出這些投資組合的質量非常高。

Your next question is from Amit Goel from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Amit Goel。

Welcome back, Sergio, too, from me. So two questions. The first, again, just on the transaction and the announcement on day 1. I just wanted to check in terms of the cost savings and the time line for EPS accretion, whether or not your conviction levels have changed based on the information that you've had or seen since then? And then secondly, I was a bit surprised by the amount of, I guess, deposit outflow on a reported basis for GWM in the quarter. Do you mind just going through that in a bit more detail because obviously that's net of the inflows that we've seen towards the end of the quarter. So I appreciate there was a bit of shift in mix and so forth. But if you could give a bit more color, that would be helpful.

歡迎回來，Sergio，也從我這裡回來。所以兩個問題。第一個，再一次，關於交易和第一天的公告。我只是想檢查一下成本節約和 EPS 增長的時間線，根據你提供的信息，你的信念水平是否發生了變化從那以後有過或見過嗎？其次，我對本季度 GWM 報告的存款流出量感到有點驚訝。您是否介意更詳細地了解一下，因為顯然這是我們在本季度末看到的流入淨額。所以我很欣賞混合等方面的一些轉變。但是，如果您可以提供更多顏色，那將很有幫助。

Sure. So in terms of the cost savings and EPS, the assumptions that we gave you on -- stand. And what is important is for the EPS question to remember that we gave you what would be reported numbers. So we are not excluding noncore, we're not excluding restructuring charge. And given that we're dealing with noncore assets that could have a time line, it could be that some of that comes over time, which is why we gave ourselves until 2027. Certainly, the core EPS accretion in our models was faster than that. And then in terms of the deposit outflows for GWM, it is really very much the client repositioning that you are seeing at the beginning of the year. And so people came in and even with our advisers, actually really looked at their portfolios, and especially in the U.S. -- and you've seen that phenomenon, as I mentioned, our deposit sequential decrease is exactly the same one as the Fed data, is the result of people really looking at the difference in particular between what you can have on an after-tax basis between the treasury bonds or money markets versus any savings products. So our products are very attractive. But nevertheless, the treasury bonds and money markets end up being more attractive. And therefore, there have been mix shifts that are very, very logical for that type of clientele and this is absolutely the right advice for clients. That is really the majority of the driver, and then it's offset by the inflows that we have gotten since we were brought in the storm during the period of March after things became a bit more difficult for others.

當然。因此，就成本節約和 EPS 而言，我們給你的假設是站得住腳的。對於 EPS 問題來說，重要的是要記住我們給了你要報告的數字。所以我們不排除非核心，我們不排除重組費用。考慮到我們正在處理可能有時間線的非核心資產，其中一些資產可能會隨著時間的推移而出現，這就是為什麼我們將自己設定到 2027 年。當然，我們模型中的核心 EPS 增長速度比那快.然後就 GWM 的存款流出而言，這實際上是您在年初看到的客戶重新定位。所以人們進來了，甚至有我們的顧問，實際上真的看了他們的投資組合，尤其是在美國——你已經看到了這種現象，正如我提到的，我們的存款連續下降與美聯儲數據完全相同，是人們真正關注國債或貨幣市場與任何儲蓄產品之間的稅後基礎差異的結果。所以我們的產品非常有吸引力。但儘管如此，國債和貨幣市場最終變得更具吸引力。因此，對於這類客戶來說，混合轉變非常非常合乎邏輯，這絕對是對客戶的正確建議。這實際上是驅動程序的大多數，然後它被自從我們在 3 月期間在其他人的情況變得更加困難之後進入風暴以來我們所獲得的資金流入所抵消。

Okay. And just on the cost savings, is that kind of, I guess, conditional on what the outcome is for the Swiss business? Or is the conviction still there on the greater than $8 billion?

好的。就成本節約而言，我想，這是否取決於瑞士企業的結果？還是對超過 80 億美元的信念仍然存在？

So the $8 billion plus was done based on the base case. And of course, anything beyond that would be done in the context of what Sergio said in value creation.

所以 80 億美元以上是根據基本情況完成的。當然，除此之外的任何事情都將在 Sergio 在價值創造中所說的背景下完成。

Your next question is from Benjamin Goy from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的本傑明戈伊。

Two questions, please. The first, the reach weighted to 25% of the new group going forward with the investment bank, if I combine UBS and Crédit Suisse as of Q1, I'm already at that number before fully transferring the correct products and so on. So does it mean you're already happy with the perimeter of the group and potentially happy to diversify your fixed income business via the credit sales and trading? Or is this number ultimately going lower towards maybe 20% or whatever the number is? And then secondly, wondering about Global Wealth Management. Do you reunderwrite the Crédit Suisse client from a risk perspective, i.e., is that a new onboarding process? Or do they just join as of the deal completing?

請教兩個問題。首先，如果我在第一季度將 UBS 和 Crédit Suisse 合併到投資銀行，那麼新集團的影響力將達到 25%，在完全轉移正確的產品等之前我已經達到了這個數字。那麼，這是否意味著您已經對集團的範圍感到滿意，並且可能樂於通過信貸銷售和交易來實現固定收益業務的多元化？還是這個數字最終會下降到 20% 或其他數字？其次，想知道全球財富管理。您是否從風險角度重新承保 Crédit Suisse 客戶，即，這是一個新的入職流程嗎？或者他們只是在交易完成時加入？

Well, on the 25%, I mean, it depends how you make the calculation. But directionally, what we are saying is that the 25% on a normalized basis will be the maximum. And from there onwards, we will look into what fits into our risk profile. There are many areas where Crédit Suisse will bring new capabilities that are good and enhancing our franchise in Investment Bank. So we are not concerned about those activities. And as you know, there is also some kind of correlation with risk-weighted assets being a function of market movements and volatility. So we can't really right now paint as a normalized number that we are happy with other than saying 25% will be the maximum and no matter what. So that's a good starting point.

嗯，關於 25%，我的意思是，這取決於你如何進行計算。但從方向上講，我們所說的是標準化基礎上的 25% 將是最大值。從那時起，我們將研究適合我們風險狀況的因素。瑞士信貸將在許多領域帶來有益的新能力，並增強我們在投資銀行的特許經營權。所以我們不關心那些活動。如您所知，風險加權資產也存在某種相關性，是市場走勢和波動的函數。所以我們現在不能真正描繪成一個我們滿意的標準化數字，只能說 25% 將是最大值，無論如何。所以這是一個很好的起點。

I think that if you look at the combined organization, we will reduce the weighting of -- going forward and, most importantly, we have a more diversified business. So there is also one of these items where we had a little bit of more digging into the business and what is going to stay with us and what is not going to be part of our offering. The onboarding will be done in a pragmatic way. Unless we have red flags, we will onboard clients, and we want to make the journey and the experience of clients as smooth as possible. But of course, the operating model in principle is the one of UBS. So then, as we then onboard clients, we will then look at the suitability and making sure that they fit into our standards. I don't expect major difference. But here and there, we may have different views on certain client segments or people.

我認為，如果你看一下合併後的組織，我們將減少未來的權重，最重要的是，我們擁有更加多元化的業務。因此，還有其中一項我們對業務進行了更多的挖掘，哪些將留在我們身邊，哪些不會成為我們產品的一部分。入職培訓將以務實的方式進行。除非我們有危險信號，否則我們將接納客戶，我們希望讓客戶的旅程和體驗盡可能順暢。但當然，原則上的運營模式是瑞銀的一種。因此，當我們接手客戶時，我們將研究其適用性並確保它們符合我們的標準。我不希望有重大差異。但在某些地方，我們可能對某些客戶群或人有不同的看法。

Your next question is from Tom Hallett from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tom Hallett。

Just a couple for me. So I mean, firstly, how concerned are you around the revenue attrition really taking place at Crédit Suisse? I guess where I'm coming from is based on the current revenue trajectory, the $8 billion of cost reductions might not actually be enough. So could we be in a situation where a deeper restructuring is required? And then maybe secondly around buybacks. I mean, part of the issue there is people are trying to time it and obviously work out the capital and so forth. I suppose you've got one side the government guarantees. And then on the other, you've got a very politically sensitive situation. And I suppose, regardless of your capital position, is it fair to assume that buybacks are very much kind of at the back of mind for now and we're talking 18-plus months away before you can even consider that between the link between, obviously, your strong capital position, expected capital position and the government guarantees?

對我來說只是一對。所以我的意思是，首先，您對瑞士信貸真正發生的收入流失有多擔心？我想我的出發點是基於當前的收入軌跡，80 億美元的成本削減實際上可能還不夠。那麼我們是否會處於需要進行更深層次重組的情況？然後也許其次圍繞回購。我的意思是，部分問題在於人們正在嘗試計時，顯然計算出資本等等。我想你有一方面是政府擔保。另一方面，你遇到了一個非常政治敏感的情況。而且我想，不管你的資本狀況如何，假設回購現在已經在腦海中浮現，我們談論 18 個多月之後，你甚至可以考慮兩者之間的聯繫，這是否公平？顯然，您的強大資本狀況、預期資本狀況和政府擔保？

Thank you, Tom. Look, of course, the revenue attrition is a function of what happened in the last couple of months. And also if you look, the profitability is highly impacted by the cost of funding they had experienced in the last few months. I think that once things are together and normalized, we will also create some tailwinds in respect of lower cost of funding and an ability to reattract clients. I'm convinced that a lot of the clients will see the value added of the combined businesses, and some of those flows will revert. So of course, we are, at the same time, not complacent. So if we see that this is not enough, we will need to take actions. And of course, we want to, at the very least, bring back the profitability ambitions that we had as a UBS stand-alone with the one of the combined entities. So cost focus on the efficiency of cost and capital returns and value creation is part of the equation, and we will do the necessary steps to do that.

謝謝你，湯姆。看，當然，收入減少是過去幾個月發生的事情的函數。而且，如果你看的話，他們在過去幾個月所經歷的融資成本對盈利能力的影響很大。我認為，一旦事情整合併正常化，我們也會在降低融資成本和重新吸引客戶方面創造一些順風。我相信很多客戶會看到合併後業務的增值，其中一些流量將會恢復。因此，我們當然不會自滿。因此，如果我們發現這還不夠，我們將需要採取行動。當然，我們至少希望恢復我們作為獨立的瑞銀集團與合併後實體之一的盈利雄心。因此，成本關注成本和資本回報的效率以及價值創造是等式的一部分，我們將採取必要的步驟來做到這一點。

Look, in terms of buyback, it's way too premature to talk about it. Assuming that it takes 18 months to have clarity, it's a guess, that I fully understand your point, but believe me, we don't know yet ourselves, so. But we will give you clarity as soon as we have clarity on this matter. We need to be sensitive to many aspects. But I'm also convinced that it won't take quarters or years to create that clarity. So the trajectory of freeing up resources, of creating clarity around the guarantees, creating clarity around the business model and our capacity to combine a dividend policy that sees a constant improvement in the cash we pay out combined with share buyback is an important element of our equity story and we will be very focused on that in our communication.

看，就回購而言，現在談論它還為時過早。假設需要 18 個月才能弄清楚，這是一個猜測，我完全理解你的觀點，但相信我，我們自己還不了解，所以。但是一旦我們弄清楚了這個問題，我們就會給你澄清。我們需要對許多方面保持敏感。但我也相信，創造這種清晰度不需要幾個季度或幾年的時間。因此，釋放資源、圍繞擔保創造清晰度、圍繞商業模式創造清晰度以及我們將股息政策結合起來的能力的軌跡，我們看到我們支付的現金不斷改善與股票回購相結合，是我們的一個重要因素股權故事，我們將在溝通中非常關注這一點。

Your next question is from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.

您的下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Nicolas Payen。

I have two. The first one is for you, Sergio. I would like to know if you had noticed anything which was radically different at UBS in its processes, organization or anything between your departure in 2020 and today? And the second question is regarding Americas in GWM. There was quite a significant drop in advisers, and I would like to know if there was any underlying reason for this drop.

我有兩個。第一個是給你的，Sergio。我想知道從 2020 年離職到今天，您是否注意到瑞銀在流程、組織或其他方面有什麼根本不同？第二個問題是關於 GWM 中的美洲。顧問人數大幅下降，我想知道這種下降是否有任何潛在原因。

Thank you, Nicolas. No, to be honest, it felt I never left. So I think that's I don't see any meaningful change. Of course, some things, like is normal, they should change. They should have changed. Not everything I left was perfect, so things needed to be addressed and other things are very personal and then very -- a question of time. But I mean, the strength of the franchise was only reinforced over the last 2 years, and this is the reason why we were able to be part of the solution over the weekend, so which is a huge achievement for UBS. Even if when you go back into where we were during the financial crisis, in my point of view, this was the ultimate payback to Switzerland. The fact that UBS was part of the solution was the ultimate payback on what the government had to do, and we were always very thankful for that. And so in that sense, nothing has changed. If anything, has been reinforced. And Sarah?

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。不，說實話，感覺我從未離開過。所以我認為我沒有看到任何有意義的變化。當然，有些事情，就像是正常的，他們應該改變。他們應該已經改變了。並非我留下的一切都是完美的，所以需要解決一些事情，而其他事情是非常私人的，然後是時間問題。但我的意思是，特許經營權的實力在過去兩年才得到加強，這就是我們能夠在周末參與解決方案的原因，這對瑞銀來說是一項巨大的成就。即使回到金融危機期間的情況，在我看來，這也是對瑞士的最終回報。事實上，瑞銀參與了解決方案，這是對政府必須做的事情的最終回報，我們對此一直非常感激。所以從這個意義上說，什麼都沒有改變。如果有的話，已經得到加強。莎拉呢？

On GWM, you actually have a technicality which is that we put in our FAs both the very high end FA, but also the people that are in the client advice center. And so it came really mostly from the client advice center. And so really focusing on the flows and the productivity of the FA is where we are and we are not seeing any issues here. In fact, you have seen the very good flows that we have experienced in the U.S. this quarter.

在 GWM，你實際上有一個技術問題，那就是我們在我們的 FA 中既有非常高端的 FA，也有客戶諮詢中心的人員。所以它實際上主要來自客戶諮詢中心。因此，真正關注 FA 的流程和生產力是我們所處的位置，我們在這裡沒有看到任何問題。事實上，您已經看到本季度我們在美國經歷的非常好的流量。

The next question is from Andrew Lim from Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Andrew Lim。

Welcome back to Sergio from me as well. So my first question is on NII. I appreciate the more integrated disclosure on the beats and the migration. I was wondering if you could talk more specifically about how that plays out on a geographical basis. Is that the greater pressure on the beta migration mainly from the U.S. side? Or are we seeing any changes in Europe and Asia as well? And maybe you can give some color on how your NII should pan out based on forward curves into 2024. And then my next question is on the IB. I appreciate you've yet to outline the premiums of what mean -- of what goes into noncore. But at the same time, you've been very specific about your IB DNA for the past few years now. And so it leaves a question mark over the [less in] business which [see has got] lumps with IBD. I Guess the question is, how do you see that business win your IB structure?

也歡迎我回到塞爾吉奧。所以我的第一個問題是關於 NII。我很欣賞關於節拍和遷移的更全面的披露。我想知道你是否可以更具體地談談它在地理基礎上的表現。這是否主要來自美國方面對 beta 遷移的更大壓力？或者我們是否也看到了歐洲和亞洲的任何變化？也許你可以根據到 2024 年的前向曲線，說明你的 NII 應該如何發展。然後我的下一個問題是關於 IB。我很感激你還沒有概述什麼意思的溢價 - 什麼進入非核心。但與此同時，在過去的幾年裡，你對你的 IB DNA 非常具體。因此，它給 [less in] 業務留下了一個問號，[see has got] 與 IBD 結塊。我想問題是，您如何看待該企業贏得您的 IB 結構？

Okay. Thank you, Andrew, I'll take the second question. And I think that, yes, the DNA won't change. What we do is part of the equation. And having a diversified portfolio of businesses does include also having leveraged finance. Of course, we are -- we will stay very focused on how we are present in that business. We want to be meaningful to our clients but also be mindful that this cannot be the driver of the profitability of the Investment Bank with all associated volatility and risks. So you can count on us or our clients can count on us being a relevant player. But definitely, we are not -- our ambition is not to be at the top of the lead just for -- and to make it a central part of our model. So expect the margins a little bit more but in a very, very focused way. And we will also look at ways to be creative around that business because there are opportunities for us to also partner with other institutions on how to manage residual risks. So our ability has to be the bridge in the investment bank between different sources of capital and not necessarily originate and store risks.

好的。謝謝你，安德魯，我來回答第二個問題。我認為，是的，DNA 不會改變。我們所做的是等式的一部分。擁有多元化的業務組合也包括擁有槓桿融資。當然，我們 - 我們將非常關注我們在該業務中的表現。我們希望對我們的客戶有意義，但也請注意，這不能成為投資銀行盈利能力的驅動力，以及所有相關的波動性和風險。因此，您可以信賴我們，或者我們的客戶可以信賴我們是相關的參與者。但可以肯定的是，我們不是——我們的雄心不是僅僅為了領先——而是讓它成為我們模型的核心部分。因此，期望利潤率多一點，但要以一種非常、非常集中的方式。我們還將尋找圍繞該業務發揮創意的方法，因為我們也有機會與其他機構就如何管理剩餘風險進行合作。因此，我們的能力必須是投資銀行中不同資金來源之間的橋樑，而不一定是產生和存儲風險。

In terms of the NII, so looking at it by region and really by currency is how we think about it. What you have, first of all, as a broad statement, is that for each product category in each region, the realized beta or at or below the model better beta. Then what you have is you have mix shifts within the deposit products which are building a high overall basically repricing. And what we are seeing is then based on where we are in the cycle. So in the U.S., we are those very high rates, where we are at very high incremental beta and that's continuing with the mix shift that I've discussed in the best interest of the clients. And then you have in Europe, we went from being really at fairly low levels on to are now moving into a place where there is price sensitivity, especially for GWM clients. So you have seen an increase which is totally planned but a little bit of mix shift also there, but a bit less on the mix shift there. And then in Switzerland, you've got a mix where you've got the P&C, especially on personal banking, where you still have a very low level of rates in all of Switzerland. And we have put in place appropriate levels of pricing actions but yet are still in that place in the cycle where you're seeing less of a shift or repricing just based on where the currencies are. So going into the next year, you're continuing to go higher for all of the currencies. And 2024, really, it will depend on the right path.

就 NII 而言，我們是如何看待它的，所以按地區和真正按貨幣來看待它。首先，作為一個廣泛的陳述，你所擁有的是，對於每個地區的每個產品類別，實現的 beta 或等於或低於模型更好的 beta。那麼你所擁有的是存款產品中的混合變化，這些產品正在建立一個高整體基本上重新定價。然後我們所看到的是基於我們在周期中的位置。所以在美國，我們是那些非常高的利率，我們處於非常高的增量 beta 中，並且正在繼續我為客戶的最大利益討論過的混合轉變。然後你在歐洲，我們從真正處於相當低的水平到現在正在進入一個價格敏感的地方，特別是對於 GWM 客戶。所以你已經看到了一個完全計劃好的增長，但那裡也有一點混合轉變，但那裡的混合轉變少了一點。然後在瑞士，你有一個混合的地方，你有 P&C，特別是在個人銀行業務上，你在整個瑞士的利率水平仍然很低。我們已經採取了適當水平的定價行動，但仍處於週期中的那個位置，你看到的轉移或重新定價較少，只是基於貨幣的位置。因此，進入明年，所有貨幣都將繼續走高。而 2024 年，真的，這將取決於正確的道路。

Okay. It looks like there are no more questions. Thank you for being with us this morning. As I said, despite the very uncertain market conditions, we delivered solid underlying results for the quarter. We have been maintaining our capital and liquidity positions, and we were also able to get very close to resolve a legacy matter that has been with us for 15 years. We discussed also the unique opportunity that the acquisition of Credit Suisse presents not only for our shareholders, but I believe also for all the rest of our stakeholders, employees, clients, society at large. And of course, this is not going to be a straight-line journey. It's going to be a challenging one, but -- it's a complex one, but I do believe that the benefits outweigh by far all those factors. So I know that you are looking for more details, we are also looking for more details. And we will really do our best to keep the communication channels open over the next few weeks and months so that we can provide the necessary information to have a better understanding of this great equity story ahead of us. Thank you.

好的。看起來沒有更多的問題了。感謝您今天早上與我們在一起。正如我所說，儘管市場環境非常不確定，但我們在本季度取得了穩健的基本業績。我們一直在維持我們的資本和流動性頭寸，我們也能夠非常接近地解決一個已經困擾我們 15 年的遺留問題。我們還討論了收購瑞士信貸不僅為我們的股東，而且我相信也為我們所有其他利益相關者、員工、客戶和整個社會帶來的獨特機會。當然，這不會是一條直線旅程。這將是一個具有挑戰性的問題，但是——這是一個複雜的問題，但我確實相信，好處遠遠超過所有這些因素。所以我知道你在尋找更多的細節，我們也在尋找更多的細節。在接下來的幾周和幾個月裡，我們將盡最大努力保持溝通渠道暢通，以便我們能夠提供必要的信息，以便更好地了解我們面前的這個偉大的股票故事。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast and Q&A session for analysts and investors is over. You may disconnect your lines. We will now take a short break and continue with the media Q&A session at 10:45 CET. Thank you.

女士們，先生們，面向分析師和投資者的網絡直播和問答環節已經結束。您可以斷開線路。我們現在稍作休息，繼續在歐洲中部時間 10:45 舉行媒體問答環節。謝謝。