SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) 2027 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q1 營收 110 億美元,YoY 成長 378%,QoQ 成長 23%,優於指引($10.3B-$10.8B);Non-GAAP EPS $49.51,優於指引($44-$46)
    • Q2 指引:營收 $12.2B-$12.6B,Non-GAAP 毛利率 84.5%-85.5%,Non-GAAP EPS $55-$57(未分割前)
    • 宣布 8-for-1 股票分割,盤後市場反應未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • AI 驅動 NAND 結構性需求成長,KV cache、推論工作負載帶動資料中心需求
      • BiCS 8/9/10 技術領先,CBA 架構提升效能與密度,HBF 新架構進展順利
      • NBM(長約)模式深化與頂級 AI 客戶合作,帶來需求能見度與財務穩定性
      • 資料中心業務強勁成長,已占產業位元約一半,汽車/IoT 在 Edge 端成為新動能
    • 風險:
      • 消費性市場(特別是低階手機/PC)需求疲弱,單位下滑但單機內容提升
      • SLC 需求增加可能影響 NAND 供給結構,尚未明朗
      • NBM 長約雖帶來穩定,但需持續平衡新舊客戶與產能分配
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 總營收:110 億美元,YoY +378%,QoQ +23%
    • 資料中心營收:48 億美元,QoQ +61%,遠超產業平均
    • Edge 營收:58 億美元,QoQ +7%,汽車/IoT 強勁成長
    • 消費性營收:3.97 億美元,QoQ -29%,受高價影響
    • Non-GAAP 毛利率:85.1%,QoQ 提升(上季 84.6%)
    • Non-GAAP 營業費用:5.13 億美元,占營收 4.7%
    • Non-GAAP 營業利潤率:80.4%,QoQ 提升
    • Q1 自由現金流:57 億美元,現金佔營收 52%
    • Q1 資本支出:3.78 億美元,占營收 3.4%
    • NBM 長約覆蓋:2027 年約 50% bits,2028 年約 2/3,預期持續提升
    • TLC:QLC 比例約 70:30,QLC 應用加速但短期內結構不變
  4. 財務預測
    • Q2 營收預估 $12.2B-$12.6B
    • Q2 Non-GAAP 毛利率預估 84.5%-85.5%
    • 2027 年資本支出預計為營收中個位數百分比(mid-single-digit %),全年約 25-30 億美元
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: NBM 長約進展與未來覆蓋率?是否會有更多 NBMs?
      A: NBM pipeline 強勁,2027 年約 50% bits、2028 年約 2/3 bits 已簽約,預期覆蓋率還會提升,會持續審慎選擇客戶並擴大合作。
    • Q: 資料中心營收大幅成長的主因?BiCS 8/9/10 技術貢獻?未來 mix 會否超過產業平均?
      A: 成長來自 BiCS 8/9 技術領先、TLC/QLC 產品組合完整,AI inference 架構精細化推動 NAND 滲透率提升,預期 mix 會持續提升但不設明確目標。
    • Q: Q1 營收成長 60% 來自量、40% 來自價,Q2 價格走勢如何?
      A: Q2 量價皆有貢獻,價格預期全年將持續溫和上升。
    • Q: HBF(高頻寬快閃)進展與市場機會?新 NAND 架構(如 StorageX、CMX)如何看待?
      A: HBF 已 tape-out,明年送樣,與客戶討論熱絡,未來會依實際產品回饋調整市場預期。新 NAND 架構百花齊放,會緊貼客戶需求,持續技術創新。
    • Q: SLC 需求增加是否會影響 TLC/QLC 成長?SLC 對供給有何影響?
      A: SLC 屬於新應用拓展,不會排擠 TLC/QLC,反而擴大 NAND TAM。SLC 可用現有產線彈性生產,短期供給影響有限,會持續觀察客戶需求。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon and welcome to SanDisk's first quarter fiscal year 2027 earnings conference call.

    下午好,歡迎參加 SanDisk 2027 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Please also note today's event is being recorded.

    也請注意,今天的活動將會錄音。

  • At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Ivan Donaldson, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    此刻,我想把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Ivan Donaldson。請開始。

  • Ivan Donaldson - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Ivan Donaldson - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current assumptions and expectations, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements include expectations for our technology and product portfolio, our business plans and performance, our capital allocation priorities, market trends and opportunities and our financial results. We assume no obligation to update these statements. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K and our other filings with the SEC for more information on the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

    在開始之前,請注意今天的討論將包含以前瞻性陳述為主的內容,係基於管理層目前的假設與預期,並可能受到各種風險與不確定性影響。這些前瞻性陳述包括我們對技術與產品組合、業務計畫與表現、資本配置優先順序、市場趨勢與機會,以及財務結果的預期。我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。有關可能導致實際結果與預期存在重大差異之風險與不確定性的更多資訊,請參閱我們的 Form 10-K 年報及向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的其他文件。

  • We will also make references to non-GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP and comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the written materials posted in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    今天我們也會提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。非 GAAP 與可比 GAAP 財務衡量指標之間的調節表,已包含在我們網站投資人關係專區所張貼的書面資料中。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

    接下來,我把電話會議交給 David。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Ivan.

    謝謝你,Ivan。

  • Good afternoon and thank you for joining SanDisk's fiscal first quarter 2027 earnings call.

    下午好,感謝各位參加 SanDisk 2027 會計年度第一季財報電話會議。

  • We began fiscal year 2027 with another strong quarter, creating value for customers and shareholders and delivering results above guidance. Our strategy is working and our execution is delivering strong results. Revenue for the quarter was $11 billion, non-GAAP gross margin was 85.1% and non-GAAP earnings per share was $49.51. We generated $5.7 billion of adjusted free cash flow and returned $5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases.

    我們以另一個強勁季度展開 2027 會計年度,為客戶與股東創造價值,並交出優於財測指引的成果。我們的策略正在奏效,而我們的執行也帶來強勁結果。本季營收為 110 億美元,非 GAAP 毛利率為 85.1%,非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 49.51 美元。我們產生 57 億美元的調整後自由現金流,並透過庫藏股回購向股東返還 50 億美元。

  • Our confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business is grounded in three enduring strengths: technology leadership, deep customer partnerships, and disciplined financial management. These strengths are reinforced by a structural increase in NAND demand, driven particularly by AI and by customer signals now extending beyond fiscal year 2030 through our new business model, our NBM partnerships. Together, they position us to invest with confidence in our technology roadmap, strengthen and expand our customer relationships, and deliver growing and durable free cash flow while returning capital to shareholders.

    我們對業務長期發展軌跡的信心,建立在三項持久優勢之上:技術領先、深厚的客戶夥伴關係,以及嚴謹的財務管理。在 AI 推動下,NAND 需求出現結構性提升;同時,透過我們的新商業模式——我們的 NBM 夥伴關係——客戶釋出的訊號如今已延伸至 2030 會計年度之後,進一步強化這些優勢。綜合而言,這些因素使我們能夠有信心地投資於技術藍圖、強化並擴大客戶關係,並在回饋股東資本的同時,提供成長且具韌性的自由現金流。

  • It starts with our technology leadership. BiCS 8 is the backbone of our current production portfolio in the industry benchmark for performance and density across TLC and QLC. BiCS 8 introduced our CMOS directly bonded to array, our CBA architecture, enabling the performance required by AI data center customers and establishing the framework for future generations. BiCS 9 pairs the proven BiCS 8 cell array with next generation CMOS, significantly increasing interface performance while retaining a mature memory architecture. BiCS 10 advances the full node architecture across both TLC and QLC with a 1-terabit TLC die designed for performance-intensive workloads and a 2-terabit QLC die delivering industry-leading density and twice the read and write bandwidth of BiCS 8. Together these technologies will extend the BiCS 8 foundation to meet the evolving performance and capacity requirements of next-generation infrastructure.

    首先是我們的技術領先地位。BiCS 8 是我們目前量產產品組合的骨幹,並且在 TLC 與 QLC 的效能與密度方面,屬於業界基準。BiCS 8 導入了我們的「CMOS 直接鍵合至陣列」(CBA)架構,使其具備 AI 資料中心客戶所需的效能,並為未來世代奠定架構基礎。BiCS 9 將經驗證的 BiCS 8 記憶體單元陣列與下一代 CMOS 搭配,在保留成熟記憶體架構的同時,大幅提升介面效能。BiCS 10 進一步在 TLC 與 QLC 上推進完整節點架構:其 1Tb TLC 晶粒針對高效能工作負載設計;其 2Tb QLC 晶粒提供業界領先的密度,且讀寫頻寬為 BiCS 8 的兩倍。這些技術將共同延伸 BiCS 8 的基礎,以滿足下一代基礎設施不斷演進的效能與容量需求。

  • Beyond the core roadmap, high-bandwidth flash or HBF, reached an important milestone in the fiscal first quarter with the tape-out of our first HBF memory die, with fabrication now underway. As we outlined at Investor Day, HBF is a new memory architecture for inference that targets HBM class read bandwidth with substantially greater capacity to support larger models, longer context lengths, and growing KV caches. It is designed to complement HBM by bringing NAND class capacity closer to the processor, and we remain on track to deliver samples of our first HBF-based products next calendar year. HBF remains a future innovation and is not included in the long-term financial model we introduced at Investor Day.

    在核心藍圖之外,高頻寬快閃記憶體(HBF)於本會計年度第一季達成一項重要里程碑:我們第一顆 HBF 記憶體晶粒完成流片(tape-out),目前已開始製造。如同我們在投資人日所說明,HBF 是一種面向推論的新記憶體架構,目標是在讀取頻寬上達到 HBM 等級,同時提供顯著更高的容量,以支援更大的模型、更長的上下文長度,以及持續成長的 KV 快取。其設計旨在與 HBM 互補,將 NAND 等級的容量更靠近處理器;我們仍按計畫在明年曆年提供首批基於 HBF 的產品樣品。HBF 仍屬未來創新,未納入我們在投資人日提出的長期財務模型之中。

  • As customer adoption, product requirements, and manufacturing readiness become more clearly defined, we expect to provide further perspective on the market opportunity. Customers recognize the strength of our innovation and increasingly view SanDisk as an important partner in achieving their growth objectives through our NBMs, we continue to evolve customer relationships into long-term partnerships grounded in innovation, collaboration, and shared commitment. Our most recent customers' engagements with the world's leading AI companies indicate further upside in demand for our technology. Our market-leading technology, product portfolio, and customer partnerships are the backbone of our strong financial position, which allows us to reinvest to maintain our technology leadership and expand supply through R&D-focused CapEx.

    隨著客戶採用情況、產品需求與製造就緒度愈加明確,我們預期將就市場機會提供更多觀點。客戶認可我們創新的實力,並日益將 SanDisk 視為透過我們的 NBM 協助其達成成長目標的重要夥伴;我們持續將客戶關係演進為以創新、協作與共同承諾為基礎的長期夥伴關係。我們近期與全球領先 AI 公司的客戶互動顯示,對我們技術的需求仍有進一步上行空間。我們領先市場的技術、產品組合與客戶夥伴關係,構成我們強健財務體質的基礎,使我們得以再投資以維持技術領先,並透過以研發為重點的資本支出(CapEx)擴大供給。

  • Each of these strengths is reinforced by tailwinds from AI. The need for scalable memory and storage is expanding as inference workloads grow, making NAND increasingly integral to AI infrastructure. During inference, each generated token must reference the context that precedes it, creating a growing KV cache that serves as the model's working memory. Longer prompts, more complex reasoning, multimodal inputs, and persistent user context materially increase these storage requirements.

    上述每一項優勢都受到 AI 順風的加持。隨著推論工作負載成長,對可擴展的記憶體與儲存需求正在擴大,使 NAND 在 AI 基礎設施中愈發不可或缺。在推論過程中,每個生成的 token 都必須參照其之前的上下文,因而形成持續成長的 KV 快取,作為模型的工作記憶體。更長的提示詞、更複雜的推理、多模態輸入,以及持續性的使用者上下文,將顯著提高這些儲存需求。

  • HBM and DRAM support the highest performance tier, while flash provides the capacity required to retain broader context efficiently and avoid costly recomputation. We believe this is a secular dynamic that is expanding NAND's role across the AI stack. The memory hierarchy defines the role of each NAND architecture. TLC provides the lower latency, higher write performance, and greater endurance required for active datasets, checkpointing, and latency-sensitive KV cache workloads.

    HBM 與 DRAM 支援最高效能層級,而快閃記憶體則提供有效保留更廣泛上下文所需的容量,並避免昂貴的重新計算。我們認為這是一項長期結構性趨勢,正在擴大 NAND 在整個 AI 堆疊中的角色。記憶體階層決定了各種 NAND 架構的分工。TLC 提供主動資料集、檢查點(checkpointing)以及對延遲敏感的 KV 快取工作負載所需的更低延遲、更高寫入效能與更高耐久度。

  • In our AI lab comparison, we presented at Investor Day, systems utilizing SSD delivered approximately three times the token throughput while using approximately 75% less energy than comparable systems relying on volatile memory alone. QLC further increases storage density for capacity-intensive applications such as data lakes, vector databases that power AI search, and retrieval repositories. Between these layers, a growing persistent context tier establishes data to be retained and recalled rather than regenerated.

    在我們於投資人日展示的 AI 實驗室比較中,採用 SSD 的系統,其 token 吞吐量約為僅依賴揮發性記憶體之可比系統的三倍,同時能耗約降低 75%。QLC 進一步提升儲存密度,以支援資料湖、驅動 AI 搜尋的向量資料庫,以及檢索儲存庫等容量密集型應用。在這些層級之間,日益成長的「持久上下文」層建立起需要被保留與召回、而非重新生成的資料。

  • As inference costs decline, we expect the adoption and usage to expand, supporting our view that KV cache will represent approximately one-third of the AI data center flash market by the end of the decade. And that the AI data center opportunity will approach the size of the NAND industry today.

    隨著推論成本下降,我們預期採用率與使用量將擴大,支持我們的觀點:到本十年末,KV 快取將約占 AI 資料中心快閃記憶體市場的三分之一。而 AI 資料中心的機會規模將接近當今整個 NAND 產業的規模。

  • Turning to our end markets. In data center, our portfolio addresses the full range of AI infrastructure requirements from performance-intensive enterprise SSDs to high-capacity platforms. Demand remains strong and continues to grow and we estimate the data center has expanded from approximately 20% of industry bits early in the decade to roughly half of the industry bits today. The structural shift in customer mix is reshaping industry economics and is central to the transformation underway at SanDisk. This quarter, data center again delivered strong growth and continued to outpace the broader market as we allocated more supply to address the growing demand from this end market.

    接著談我們的終端市場。在資料中心方面,我們的產品組合涵蓋 AI 基礎設施需求的全範圍,從高效能的企業級 SSD 到高容量平台。需求仍然強勁且持續成長;我們估計資料中心所占的產業位元(bits)比重,已從本十年初約 20% 擴大至今日約一半。客戶組合的結構性轉變正在重塑產業經濟性,並且是 SanDisk 正在進行之轉型的核心。本季資料中心再次實現強勁成長,並持續跑贏整體市場,因為我們配置更多供給以滿足該終端市場日益成長的需求。

  • Edge is a large and strategically important market for SanDisk, spanning smartphones, PCs, automotive tablets, and an expanding range of physical AI applications. Automotive is becoming an increasingly important growth factor in our Edge business and a meaningful long-term growth opportunity. We have deepening engagements with leading customers, reinforcing our confidence that automotive can become one of the largest markets within Edge over time. Our consumer business remains a differentiated strategic asset, combining direct brand engagement with hundreds of millions of end users and broad shelf presence across the world's leading channel partners. The consumer end market provides a durable foundation for our business, while its direct connection to the market informs product development and provides early insight into shifts in end user demand.

    邊緣(Edge)是 SanDisk 規模龐大且具策略重要性的市場,涵蓋智慧型手機、PC、車用平板,以及日益擴大的各類實體 AI 應用。汽車正成為我們 Edge 業務中愈來愈重要的成長動能,亦是具意義的長期成長機會。我們與領先客戶的合作持續深化,進一步強化我們的信心:隨著時間推進,汽車有望成為 Edge 內最大的市場之一。我們的消費性業務仍是具差異化的策略資產,結合與數億終端使用者的直接品牌互動,以及在全球主要通路夥伴中廣泛的上架能見度。消費性終端市場為我們的業務提供持久的基礎,同時其與市場的直接連結也能為產品開發提供資訊,並讓我們及早洞察終端使用者需求變化。

  • Taken together, these results reinforce the durability of the model we outlined at our Investor Day. We have established a strong level of profitability in cash generation, and our focus from here is consistent execution across the portfolio.

    綜合來看,這些結果進一步強化了我們在投資人日所闡述之商業模式的持久性。我們已在現金創造方面建立了強勁的獲利水準,而我們接下來的重點是在整個產品組合中持續一致地落實執行。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Luis for a detailed update on our business and outlook.

    接下來,我將把電話會議交給 Luis,請他就我們的業務與展望提供更詳細的更新。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, David.

    謝謝你,David。

  • We're executing the strategies and plans that we outlined at Investor Day, and we're delivering attractive financial results. In the first quarter, we closed two NBMs. Because both deals closed before our fourth quarter earnings call, we announced these partnerships on that call. We're in active conversations with existing NBM customers that are evaluating extending existing agreements and with new customers that are evaluating new NBMs. These long-term partnerships provide greater visibility into demand and financial performance, supporting a more durable financial model.

    我們正在執行投資人日所提出的策略與計畫,並交出具吸引力的財務成果。第一季我們完成了兩項 NBM 交易的簽訂。由於兩筆交易都在我們第四季財報電話會議之前完成,因此我們已在那次電話會議上宣布了這些合作夥伴關係。我們正與既有的 NBM 客戶積極洽談,這些客戶正在評估延長既有協議;同時也與新客戶洽談,這些客戶正在評估新的 NBM。這些長期合作夥伴關係可提升對需求與財務表現的可視性,進而支持更具韌性的財務模式。

  • We will remain patient and disciplined in selecting the right long-term partners as we define the optimal percentage of our bits that we allocate to NBMs, which is likely higher than our current levels. Revenue for the first quarter was $11 billion, up 23% sequentially and 378% year over year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, both volume growth and higher pricing contributed to revenue growth with approximately 60% of the increase attributable to volume growth and 40% to higher pricing.

    在我們界定分配給 NBM 的位元(bits)最佳比例時,我們將持續保持耐心與紀律,選擇合適的長期合作夥伴;該比例很可能高於我們目前的水準。第一季營收為 110 億美元,季增 23%,年增 378%。相較於我們 103 億至 108 億美元的指引區間,表現更佳;營收成長同時來自出貨量成長與價格上升,其中約 60% 的增幅歸因於出貨量成長,40% 來自價格上升。

  • Data center revenue was $4.8 billion, up 61% sequentially, outpacing estimated market growth for the quarter. Our leading products and strong customer partnerships, including three US Hyperscalers, underpin our continued expansion in this fast-growing end market. Edge revenue was $5.8 billion, up 7% sequentially, reflecting resilience in premium and mainstream markets, partially offset by contraction at the lower end. Within Edge, we saw strong growth with automotive and IoT customers. Consumer revenue was $397 million, down 29% sequentially as the market adjusts to higher pricing. We remain committed to serving all three end markets with a diversified portfolio that optimizes our performance over time.

    資料中心營收為 48 億美元,季增 61%,超越本季估計的市場成長。我們的領先產品與強健的客戶合作關係(包括三家美國超大規模雲端業者)支撐我們在這個快速成長的終端市場持續擴張。Edge(邊緣)營收為 58 億美元,季增 7%,反映高階與主流市場的韌性,但部分被低階市場的萎縮所抵銷。在 Edge 之中,我們在車用與 IoT 客戶方面看到強勁成長。消費性營收為 3.97 億美元,季減 29%,因市場正在調整以因應較高的價格。我們仍致力於以多元化產品組合服務這三個終端市場,以在時間推移中最佳化我們的表現。

  • Non-GAAP gross margin for the first quarter was 85.1%, up from 84.6% in the prior quarter, driven by higher volumes and pricing. This compares favorably with our guidance range of 83% to 85%. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $513 million, representing 4.7% of revenue. Non-GAAP operating margin was 80.4% compared to 79.2% in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP EPS was $49.51 up from $39.25 in the prior quarter and $1.22 in the same quarter of the prior fiscal year. This compares favorably with our guidance range of $44 to $46. We closed the quarter with 154 million diluted shares outstanding. Key GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation includes $91 million in stock-based compensation, representing 0.8% of revenue and $513 million gained on equity securities, primarily attributable to our investment in Nanya.

    第一季非 GAAP 毛利率為 85.1%,高於前一季的 84.6%,主要受惠於更高的出貨量與價格。相較於我們 83% 至 85% 的指引區間,表現更佳。非 GAAP 營業費用為 5.13 億美元,占營收 4.7%。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 80.4%,相較前一季為 79.2%。非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)為 49.51 美元,高於前一季的 39.25 美元,以及上一會計年度同季的 1.22 美元。相較於我們 44 至 46 美元的指引區間,表現更佳。本季結束時,稀釋後流通在外股數為 1.54 億股。GAAP 與非 GAAP 的主要調節項目包括 9,100 萬美元的股份基礎給付(stock-based compensation),占營收 0.8%;以及權益證券收益 5.13 億美元,主要歸因於我們對南亞(Nanya)的投資。

  • During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares of our common stock for $5 billion. Over the past two quarters, we have repurchased 6 million shares, representing approximately 4% of our total shares outstanding. Our purchases reflect our conviction in the long-term value of the business and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. We continue to invest appropriately in the business while returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders.

    本季期間,我們以 50 億美元回購約 320 萬股普通股。過去兩季合計,我們已回購 600 萬股,約占流通在外總股數的 4%。我們的回購反映我們對公司長期價值的信心,以及我們在資本配置上的紀律作法。我們持續適度投資於業務,同時將 100% 的超額現金回饋給股東。

  • Moving on to free cash flow. Cash flow from operations was $6.4 billion. Gross capital expenditures totaled $378 million, representing 3.4% of revenue. We expect gross capital spending to increase during the balance of the year and represent mid-single-digit percentage of revenue for fiscal year 2027. During the quarter, we generated $5.7 billion in adjusted free cash flow, representing approximately 52% margin. We closed the quarter with $5.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt.

    接著談自由現金流。營運活動現金流為 64 億美元。資本支出總額為 3.78 億美元,占營收 3.4%。我們預期今年剩餘期間的資本支出總額將增加,並在 2027 會計年度占營收的中個位數百分比。本季我們產生 57 億美元的調整後自由現金流,約為 52% 的利潤率。本季結束時,我們持有 51 億美元的現金及約當現金,且無負債。

  • Moving on to guidance, our confidence in the long-term health of the market is reinforced by the structural growth of the AI infrastructure and the expanding role of NAND across inference workloads. Before turning to our second quarter outlook, I will announce that the SanDisk's Board of Directors has approved an 8-for-1 stock split of the company's common stock. The additional shares are expected to be distributed on November 19 and trading on a split-adjusted basis is expected to begin on November 20.

    接著談財測。我們對市場長期健康狀況的信心,受到 AI 基礎設施的結構性成長,以及 NAND 在推論(inference)工作負載中角色擴大的進一步強化。在談第二季展望之前,我要宣布 SanDisk 董事會已核准公司普通股進行 1 拆 8 的股票分割。預計新增股份將於 11 月 19 日配發,並預計自 11 月 20 日起以分割調整後基準開始交易。

  • For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, we expect revenue between $12.2 billion and $12.6 billion. We expect non-GAAP gross margin between 84.5% and 85.5%, which includes modest like-for-like price increases. On a pre-split basis, we expect non-GAAP EPS between $55 and $57, assuming 151 million fully diluted shares. On an 8-for-1 split adjusted basis, this equates to non-GAAP EPS between $6.88 and $7.13, assuming approximately 1208 million fully diluted shares.

    針對 2027 會計年度第二季,我們預期營收介於 122 億至 126 億美元之間。我們預期非 GAAP 毛利率介於 84.5% 至 85.5% 之間,其中包含溫和的同品項(like-for-like)價格上調。以分割前基準計算,我們預期非 GAAP EPS 介於 55 至 57 美元之間,假設完全稀釋後股數為 1.51 億股。以 1 拆 8 分割調整後基準計算,這相當於非 GAAP EPS 介於 6.88 至 7.13 美元之間,假設完全稀釋後股數約為 12.08 億股。

  • For context, we expect a strong market in calendar year 2027. Data center is expected to be again the engine of growth and represent over 55% of the market, with bit demand growing about 40% year-on-year enabled by higher AI-driven capital spending. This is after more than doubling in 2026. Our NBM pipeline exceeds our supply throughout the end of the decade.

    作為背景說明,我們預期 2027 曆年市場將維持強勁。資料中心預期將再次成為成長引擎,並占市場超過 55%;在 AI 驅動的資本支出增加帶動下,位元需求年增約 40%。這是在 2026 年已超過倍增之後的基礎上。我們的 NBM 商機管線在本十年末之前都將超過我們的供給能力。

  • With that, let me turn the call back to David.

    接下來,讓我把電話會議交回給 David。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Luis.

    謝謝你,Luis。

  • We continue to execute on the strategy we outlined at Investor Day, reinforcing our confidence in SanDisk's long-term trajectory. Our technology leadership, deep customer partnership, and disciplined financial management, supported by a structural increase in NAND demand driven by AI, position us to serve our customers, deliver growing and durable free cash flow, and return capital to shareholders.

    我們持續執行投資人日所提出的策略,進一步強化我們對 SanDisk 長期發展軌跡的信心。在 AI 帶動 NAND 需求結構性提升的支持下,我們的技術領先地位、深厚的客戶合作關係與嚴謹的財務管理,使我們能夠服務客戶、提供成長且具持久性的自由現金流,並將資本回饋給股東。

  • Over the past year, we have transformed the earnings and cash generation power of the business and established a strong foundation for durable performance. We remain focused on disciplined execution, sustained value creation, and delivering against our long-term financial objectives.

    過去一年,我們已轉變公司獲利與現金創造能力,並建立了可持續表現的堅實基礎。我們仍專注於紀律執行、持續創造價值,並達成我們的長期財務目標。

  • With that, Ivan, let's open it up for questions.

    接下來,Ivan,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • Ben Reitzes, Melius.

    Ben Reitzes,Melius。

  • Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

    Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask, too, if I could, one on the NBMs. You signed two before the last call. So I'm just wondering if we're going to have a lot more of them because it seems like you're already capacity constrained to agree to them. And then do you mind reminding us what the bits under contract will be the next few years if that's changed at all?

    我也想問一下,如果可以的話,關於 NBM 的問題。你們在上次電話會議之前簽了兩個。所以我只是想知道,接下來是否會有更多,因為看起來你們在產能上已經受限,卻仍同意簽這些協議。另外,能否請你們再提醒我們,未來幾年合約之下的位元(bits)會是多少?如果這方面有任何變化的話。

  • And then I have a quick follow-up. Thanks.

    然後我還有一個簡短的追問。謝謝。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I'll make a few comments. Thanks, Ben. We appreciate it. Always good to hear from you.

    是的,我先補充幾點。謝謝你,Ben。我們很感謝。總是很高興聽到你的聲音。

  • So I'll make a few comments on NBMs and then Luis will fill in.

    我先就 NBM 補充幾點,接著 Luis 會再補充。

  • Yes, we've got a very strong pipeline of NBMs and you kind of hit on all the issues there. As the portfolio gets more subscribed and more committed and we're at half the bits for this fiscal year and two-thirds for next year, it's a fitting exercise to get the next tranche of them in there, but the pipeline is very strong. I think we said last quarter, I know we said last quarter that we're going to be patient and consider the next set of customers and that's exactly what we're doing.

    是的,我們的 NBM 專案儲備(pipeline)非常強勁,而你也點出了其中所有的議題。隨著投資組合的認購度更高、承諾度更高,而且我們本財年已經做到一半、明年做到三分之二,接下來把下一批(tranche)納入其中是很合適的動作,但整體 pipeline 仍然非常強。我想我們上季說過——我知道我們上季說過——我們會保持耐心、審慎考量下一批客戶,而我們確實就是這麼做。

  • And we expect more of them over the next several months, several quarters as we continue to allocate the rest of the portfolio. So the pipeline is very strong and growing, quite frankly, and it's become the predominant way we deal with our customers. And I expect that the percent of the portfolio committed to continue to go up over the next couple of quarters, so Luis?

    而且隨著我們持續配置投資組合的其餘部分,我們預期在接下來幾個月、幾個季度會看到更多這類案子。所以坦白說,pipeline 非常強而且還在成長,並且已經成為我們與客戶合作的主要方式。我也預期,未來幾個季度投資組合中已承諾的比例會持續上升,所以 Luis?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I mean, just a few things because I think David covered most of it, we feel very good about where we are with the NBMs, as we've been very selective, very strategic in who we chose to sign these deals with we're looking at the companies we have, and 95% of our NBMs are with companies that are investment grade, and they generated about $130 billion in operating cash flow. So we feel that we made the right choices. And as David just mentioned, we'll continue to be patient, we'll continue to be selective, and the pipeline is terrific. So you should expect us to continue to make progress. I think in my prepared remarks, I said that we expect the bits to continue to grow. We had shared with you that about 50% of our bits are under NBM for '27 and about two-thirds for '28. And we expect that number to continue to go a little bit higher from the two-thirds.

    對,我補充幾點,因為我想 David 已經涵蓋大部分了。我們對 NBM 目前的進展感到非常滿意;我們在選擇簽這些合約的對象上一直非常挑剔、非常有策略性。我們看我們合作的公司,95% 的 NBM 客戶都是投資等級(investment grade)公司,而且它們合計產生了約 1,300 億美元的營運現金流。所以我們覺得我們做了正確的選擇。也如 David 剛提到的,我們會繼續保持耐心、繼續嚴格篩選,而 pipeline 非常出色。因此你們應該會看到我們持續取得進展。我在事先準備的講稿裡也提到,我們預期 bits 會持續成長。我們也跟各位分享過,大約 50% 的 bits 在 '27 年是採 NBM 架構,'28 年約三分之二。而且我們預期這個比例會在三分之二的基礎上再略為提高一些。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Ben, I'll just make one more comment. You got to ask two questions, or I'll make two comments.

    Ben,我再補充一句。你問了兩個問題,所以我也補充兩點。

  • We're also balancing customers that are coming back for more, like that is a real thing and in general, we're hearing from our customers that they have underestimated the amount of NAND they need to run their infrastructure and so we have multiple customers coming back for a second round and then balancing that against bringing new customers into the portfolio. So there's a lot to sort out, and these are big complicated agreements, but we feel very good about where the pipeline is, where the portfolio is at, the products are resonating, and we'll continue to update you as we build out the portfolio of NBMs over the next couple of quarters.

    我們也在平衡那些回來追加需求的客戶——這確實正在發生。整體而言,我們聽到客戶反映,他們先前低估了要支撐其基礎設施運作所需的 NAND 用量,因此有多位客戶回來進行第二輪採購;同時我們也要在此與把新客戶納入投資組合之間取得平衡。所以需要梳理的事情很多,而這些都是大型且複雜的協議;但我們對 pipeline 的狀況、投資組合目前的位置,以及產品的市場共鳴都感到非常有信心。我們也會在未來幾個季度逐步擴充 NBM 投資組合的同時,持續向各位更新。

  • Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

    Ben Reitzes - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, great.

    好的,很棒。

  • Just a quick follow-up, you may have seen that Intel guided down for the next quarter due to PCs and it really the impact of the memory is more than anybody thought at least with their guidance, don't know about anybody else. Just wondering if you are seeing NBM interest from those in the PC market more and how you -- if that market with regard to some of the device makers is something that will become an NBM or is actually now getting more attractive because they're willing to pay more, how should we think about that as it looks like they're starved for product and missing numbers in that segment?

    再快速追問一下,你可能有看到 Intel 因為 PC 市場而下修了下一季的指引,而且至少從他們的指引來看,記憶體的影響比任何人原先想的都更大——其他公司我不確定。想請問你們是否看到 PC 市場的業者對 NBM 的興趣增加?以及你們怎麼看——就某些裝置製造商而言,這個市場是否會變成 NBM 的一部分,或是因為他們願意付更高的價格而變得更具吸引力?隨著看起來他們在那個區塊缺貨、而且數字不如預期,我們應該如何思考這件事?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, I mean, Ben, we cannot talk about specific customers, what we said in the past is we do have NBMs. In the data center business, it's data center-centric, but we also have customers on the Edge. And we've offered this construct to any customer that wants it and start a process where it makes sense. So we're not trying to restrict this from any customer. We're open for business.

    是的,我是說,Ben,我們不能談特定客戶。我們過去說過,我們確實有 NBM。在資料中心業務方面,它是以資料中心為核心,但我們在邊緣(Edge)也有客戶。我們也把這種合作架構提供給任何想要的客戶,並在合理的情況下啟動流程。所以我們並不是要把這個限制在某些客戶之外。我們對外開放、隨時可以合作。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So Ben, the other thing I'll say to this, I mean, we are looking this in our own reviews, we know that units were down this year. They're going to be slightly down next year, low single-digits. I mean, these two calendar quarters right now are really the trough of the year-over-year compares where they're the most negative. And so this is where we're feeling the biggest amount of change in that market on a unit basis, on a year-over-year basis.

    Ben,另外我想說的是,我們在內部檢討時也在看這件事。我們知道今年出貨量(units)是下滑的。明年也會小幅下滑,低個位數百分比。而目前這兩個曆年季度,正是年對年比較的谷底,也就是負成長最明顯的時候。因此,就出貨量基礎、年對年基礎而言,這正是我們在該市場感受到變化幅度最大的時點。

  • All that said we expect the PC exabytes to grow next year. And in fact, we think our internal models are every segment in the NAND market, PCs, smartphones, data center will all show positive growth next year because of content per device continues to go up as part of that is mixing to premium. So there's no doubt there's been a market adjustment. In many ways, we're in, as I said, from a unit basis, we're in the teeth of that on a year-over-year basis, but we see improvement from here.

    不過即便如此,我們預期明年 PC 的 exabytes 仍會成長。事實上,我們的內部模型顯示,NAND 市場的每個區隔——PC、智慧型手機、資料中心——明年都會呈現正成長,因為每台裝置的內容量(content per device)持續提升,其中一部分也來自產品組合往高階(premium)移動。所以毫無疑問,市場確實經歷了調整。在很多方面,如我所說,就出貨量的年對年來看,我們正處於調整最劇烈的階段,但我們從這裡開始看到改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Moore, Morgan Stanley.

    Joe Moore,摩根士丹利。

  • Joseph Moore - Analyst

    Joseph Moore - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Seems like the underlying story here, in addition to just how good the market is your presence in data center, you're up almost 20x year-on-year, up 61% sequentially. Can you talk about, obviously, the market's good, but it seems like your participation is also a lot better. Is that because of BiCS 8? Is that just because the market's different? Just what is it that's allowing you to get to those levels of penetration? And if data center is half of bits at some point, will you get to that in your own mix as well?

    很好。謝謝你。看起來這裡的核心故事,除了市場本身有多好之外,還有你們在資料中心的布局——你們年對年幾乎成長了 20 倍,季對季成長 61%。你能談談嗎?顯然市場很好,但看起來你們的參與度也提升很多。這是因為 BiCS 8 嗎?還是因為市場結構不同?究竟是什麼讓你們能達到那樣的滲透率水準?另外,如果資料中心在某個時間點占 bits 的一半,你們自己的產品組合也會達到那樣的占比嗎?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Joe, so thanks for the comment, we feel very good about where we're at in data center, I mean anything where you see the kind of numbers we've posted year-over-year is a combination of things, I mean it starts with the fundamental NAND node, BiCS 8 is a very good node, CBA gives you very clean CMOS, which is very good interface speeds, all those kinds of things. We built the right products, we've had a TLC product in the market for several years now. It was just a couple of quarters ago that we started selling our QLC product for revenue and that we expected that to ramp and that's happening, so we got the right product at the right time based on the right technology and then.

    Joe,謝謝你的提問。我們對目前在資料中心的進展感到非常滿意。你看到我們年對年的這種數字,通常是多種因素的組合。首先是 NAND 的基礎製程節點(node),BiCS 8 是非常好的節點;CBA 能帶來非常乾淨的 CMOS,這對介面速度非常有利,還有諸如此類的因素。我們打造了正確的產品;我們的 TLC 產品已經在市場上好幾年了。而就在幾個季度前,我們開始以 QLC 產品貢獻營收,並且我們預期它會放量成長,而現在確實正在發生。所以我們是在正確的技術基礎上、在正確的時間點,推出了正確的產品,然後——

  • Over the last quarter or so, there's been a lot more refinement of the AI inference architecture is what I would say. When I look at the market and we kind of decompose it internally, customers are just getting more refined about how they're using NAND, where they're using TLC, where they're using QLC. All different phases from KV cache to staging to fast data lakes and all the sub-parts of those markets, inference and agent orchestration, model pre-training, model post-training. There's just a general -- we're seeing NAND be applied in a more, I would say, nuanced way. In the past, QLC is being used in the right places and you're even seeing QLC from some customers even move into like KV cache where it can be supported.

    在過去一個季度左右,我會說 AI 推論(inference)架構也變得更成熟、更精細。當我看市場、並在內部拆解時,客戶對於如何使用 NAND、在哪裡用 TLC、在哪裡用 QLC,都變得更精準。從 KV cache、staging、快速資料湖(fast data lakes),到這些市場的各個子領域——推論與代理協同(agent orchestration)、模型預訓練(pre-training)、模型後訓練(post-training)。整體而言,我們看到 NAND 的應用方式變得更細緻、更有層次。過去,QLC 被用在合適的地方;而你甚至也看到部分客戶把 QLC 延伸到像 KV cache 這類只要能支援就可使用的場景。

  • On the other side of the spectrum, we're seeing SLC being pulled into the architecture. It's not really in sales yet, it's more in architectural conversations. And it's not a performance type of conversation, it's more endurance. Like during agentic workloads, the amount of endurance required. And in that place, it's kind of where can we substitute NAND for DRAM. And we think those kind of architectures will be very sticky over time. Once you make that transition, you're going to stick with it given the price differential.

    在光譜的另一端,我們看到 SLC 正被納入架構之中。它其實還沒有真正進入銷售階段,更多是在架構層面的討論。而且這不是效能型的對話,更多是在談耐久度。例如在代理式(agentic)工作負載期間,所需要的耐久度水準。在那個情境下,重點有點像是我們能在何處用 NAND 取代 DRAM。我們認為這類架構會隨時間變得非常黏著(sticky)。一旦你完成那個轉換,考量到價差,你就會持續沿用下去。

  • So we see all of these things working together. And I think these NBMs set us up for these very deep and strategic level conversations with our customers about how they're using our product, deep discussions with our engineers about how they could use our product to solve different use cases, and all of that is leading to a tremendous pull on our portfolio. And like I said, our biggest customers -- we've already signed second tranche of an NBM, and we're in discussions in others. So the whole setup is very strong, and we feel good about it, and we appreciate your recognition of the performance on a year-over-year basis. It really is quite outstanding.

    所以我們看到這些事情都在一起發揮作用。我認為這些 NBM 讓我們得以與客戶展開非常深入且具策略層級的對話,討論他們如何使用我們的產品;也讓我們能與工程師進行深入討論,探討他們如何運用我們的產品來解決不同的使用情境,而這一切都帶動了我們產品組合的強勁拉力。而且如我所說,我們最大的客戶——我們已經簽下第二批(second tranche)的 NBM,並且也正在與其他客戶洽談中。因此整體布局非常強勁,我們對此感到很有信心,也感謝你對我們年對年表現的肯定。這確實相當出色。

  • Joseph Moore - Analyst

    Joseph Moore - Analyst

  • It is surprising. And where do you think the mix goes long-term in terms of good over half (laughter)?

    這很令人意外。那你認為長期來看,在「超過一半是好的」(笑聲)這件事上,組合會走向哪裡?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So we're working hard to catch up, to have our portfolio mix. Equal what the market bits are. And we're going to continue to make progress throughout calendar year '27. We'll see if we actually catch up by the end of the quarter, but I think we'll get to a substantially higher number on mix than we are if we look back at calendar year or fiscal year '26. We'll continue to make progress here.

    所以我們正努力追趕,讓我們的產品組合占比。能與市場的位元(bits)占比相當。我們會在 2027 日曆年持續取得進展。至於是否能在該季度末真正追上,我們再看看,但我認為如果回頭看 2026 日曆年或會計年度 '26,我們的組合占比將會提升到顯著更高的水準。我們會持續在這方面推進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Newman, Bernstein.

    Mark Newman,Bernstein。

  • Mark Newman - Analyst

    Mark Newman - Analyst

  • All right. Thanks so much for taking the question. If I could just first of all talk about pricing volume in the guidance, you talked about in the fiscal Q1 that you just recorded, I think you said 60% of the revenue growth from volume and 40% from pricing. Baked into your guide, how do you expect that mix to progress? Any comments on pricing? Appreciate that you've got a very high portion of volumes on these NBMs, but still wanted to get some clarity on pricing. I think there's a comment that modest improvements in pricing in FQ2, any further clarity on that?

    好的。非常感謝讓我提問。如果我先談一下指引中的價格與出貨量(volume),你提到在你們剛公布的會計年度第一季(fiscal Q1),我記得你說營收成長中約 60% 來自出貨量、40% 來自價格。在你們的指引中,預期這個組合會如何演變?對價格有任何評論嗎?我理解這些 NBM 的出貨量占比非常高,但仍希望能更清楚了解價格面。我想你們有提到在會計年度第二季(FQ2)價格會有溫和改善,能否再多一些說明?

  • And then I have a follow-on question on HBF and some of the new NAND technologies as well.

    另外我還有一個後續問題,關於 HBF 以及一些新的 NAND 技術。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, so let me take the first one. Yes, you're right, we reported about 60% of the revenue growth came from volume and 40% from pricing in Q1 roughly. And we do expect both to contribute in the next quarter. We normally don't break this mark into its pieces, but we do expect some modest pricing as we put in our prepared remarks, so we do expect both to contribute during the quarter and we expect pricing to continue to increase modestly throughout the year.

    好的,我先回答第一個。是的,你說得沒錯,我們在第一季回報的數字大約是:營收成長約 60% 來自出貨量、40% 來自價格。而我們確實預期下一季兩者都會有貢獻。我們通常不會把這個拆得那麼細,但如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所提到的,我們確實預期價格會有一些溫和上升,因此我們預期本季兩者都會貢獻,並且也預期價格在全年將持續溫和上升。

  • Mark Newman - Analyst

    Mark Newman - Analyst

  • That's helpful, fair enough.

    這很有幫助,可以,了解。

  • Follow-up question is on HBF and other new NAND technologies in the data center. So there was a comment about some progress on HBF, which was great to hear, but wondering if there's any more comments on progress and discussions with partners and customers, anything there?

    後續問題是關於資料中心的 HBF 和其他新的 NAND 技術。你們提到 HBF 有一些進展,這很高興聽到,但想請問是否能再多分享一些進度,以及與合作夥伴和客戶的討論情況,有沒有更多資訊?

  • And the other thing, Dave, you mentioned about some of the other new NAND technologies in the data center, StorageX, and then there's also this CMX context memory, just what's your view on all these types of new NAND tiers in the data center. Do you think that they all win? Just any kind of comments on interplay of all these and the roles for each and how SanDisk plays in them and the timing would be really appreciated.

    另外一點,Dave,你提到資料中心裡其他一些新的 NAND 技術,StorageX,還有這個 CMX 情境記憶體(context memory)。你怎麼看待資料中心裡這些新的 NAND 分層(tiers)?你認為它們都會勝出嗎?也請分享一下它們之間的互動、各自的角色、SanDisk 在其中如何參與,以及時程方面的看法,將非常感謝。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So, Mark, the conversations with potential customers on HBF are robust and continue to be -- we'll continue to have those conversations as we go into putting product samples in their hands that they can start to use and understand how it's going to fit in their system. So we'll continue to update on that, but it's kind of an always-on conversation.

    當然可以。Mark,與潛在客戶就 HBF 的對話非常熱絡,而且會持續——我們會在把產品樣品交到他們手上、讓他們開始使用並理解它如何融入其系統的過程中,持續進行這些對話。所以我們會持續更新相關進展,但這基本上是一個隨時在進行(always-on)的對話。

  • Your second question. I think this is like very healthy for where AI inference is, which is as it scales out, it needs to be -- the architecture is just being relentlessly refined for economics and that's a very good thing because it's going to it makes if it's going to scale, the more economic it is, the better. And that's pulling NAND into more parts of the architecture because NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology, right?

    至於你的第二個問題。我認為這對 AI 推論(inference)目前所處的位置而言是非常健康的:當它擴展規模時,架構會為了經濟性而被不斷精煉,這是一件非常好的事,因為如果要擴大規模,越具成本效益就越好。而這也正把 NAND 拉進架構的更多部分,因為 NAND 是最具可擴展性的半導體技術,對吧?

  • So we're seeing, like I said, we're seeing if you would go back a couple of years ago, it was all about going for more density again, going from TLC to QLC. We're still doing that, right? That's still a big part of the strategy, but now there's some of it even going in the other direction. How do I use -- how do I get more endurance in specific parts of the architecture? Is the endurance and the performance I get out of NAND good enough to solve the use case at a part of the architecture where I can use it over competing technologies that may be significantly more expensive and difficult to acquire?

    所以我們看到——如我所說,如果你回到幾年前,重點完全是在追求更高密度,也就是從 TLC 走向 QLC。我們仍在做這件事,對吧?這仍然是策略中的重要部分,但現在也有一部分在往另一個方向走。也就是:我如何在架構的特定部分取得更高的耐久度?NAND 所能提供的耐久度與效能,是否足以解決某個架構環節的使用情境,讓我可以用它來取代那些可能顯著更昂貴、且更難取得的競爭技術?

  • So I would say this is a very dynamic discussion. There's a lot of ideas on the table. I think there should be a lot of ideas on the table. I think they'll all be pursued. And I think that the most important thing is to stay close to the people that are spending the money to scale the infrastructure because in the end, they'll make the decisions of what's right for them based on the use cases they're trying to solve at scale and where they're putting all this money behind it and we're deeply engaged in those conversations and I expect them to continue to be very robust and have a lot of different ideas about how we could stretch our technology in different directions to fit more and more use cases and building a product, it's always the same thing, I want the right technology at the right time and the right intensity at the right cost and really not anything less or anything more and that's what building a product is all about because you can deliver it at the right price and then you can get the right return on it. So that process is full on in AI inference architecture working with our customers.

    所以我會說這是一個非常動態的討論。桌面上有很多想法。我認為桌面上就應該有很多想法。我認為它們都會被推進。而我認為最重要的是要貼近那些正在投入資金擴大基礎設施規模的人,因為最終他們會根據自己要在規模化下解決的使用情境、以及他們把資金投向哪裡,來做出對他們而言正確的決策;我們也深度參與這些對話,我預期這些對話會持續非常熱絡,並且會有許多不同的想法,探討我們如何把技術往不同方向延伸,以符合越來越多的使用情境。至於打造產品,一直都是同一件事:我想要在正確的時間、以正確的強度、在正確的成本下,提供正確的技術——不多也不少;這就是打造產品的核心,因為你能以正確的價格交付,然後取得正確的回報。因此,在 AI 推論架構上與客戶合作的這個流程正全面展開。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Gibson, MST Financial.

    David Gibson,MST Financial。

  • David Gibson - Analyst

    David Gibson - Analyst

  • Just a quick one. Just wondering whether you're looking to accelerate. The BiCS transition from 8 to 9, 10 and so forth as a way to accelerate the bit growth in the short-term and then satisfy some of that very strong customer demand.

    我快速問一個。想請問你們是否考慮加速。BiCS 從 8 轉換到 9、10 等後續世代,以作為短期內加速位元成長、並滿足部分非常強勁客戶需求的一種方式?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I mean, we're committed to the bit growth we talked about, mid to high teens. Those nodal transitions require a lot of planning and tool purchases and where lines are set up. So we're still we have that FAB plan set up for the kind of bit growth we've been talking about for a long time. So no plans to change that at this point.

    不,我的意思是,我們仍然致力於我們談到的位元成長,中到高十幾%的水準。那些節點轉換需要大量規劃、工具採購,以及產線如何建置。所以我們仍然維持那個晶圓廠(FAB)計畫,以支撐我們長期以來一直在談的那種位元成長。因此目前沒有計畫要改變。

  • David Gibson - Analyst

    David Gibson - Analyst

  • Just one follow-up. You talked about earlier about allocating more supply to the data center in Q1. Are there any limits to increasingly allocating your bits to data center?

    再追問一個。你先前提到在第一季會把更多供應分配到資料中心。把你們的位元供應愈來愈多地分配到資料中心,是否有任何限制?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I mean, it's very -- in some ways, yes. I mean, out of the fab, you come out with a certain mix of TLC, QLC, certain dye mix, all these kinds of issues. So it's a constant fitting exercise of getting the right product to the right customer. And then there's a lot of magic that goes on in the organization and Luis's organization is a big part of that, working with our sales teams of. What is the available inventory, what's coming out of the fab, what's the mix, and where is it all going to go? So you want to say a little bit more about that?

    嗯,我的意思是,這在某些方面確實——是的。我的意思是,從晶圓廠出來,你會得到一定的TLC、QLC組合、一定的die組合,以及各種這類問題。所以這是一個持續的配適工作:把正確的產品交到正確的客戶手上。然後組織內部也有很多「魔法」在運作,而Luis的團隊是其中很重要的一部分,會和我們的銷售團隊一起合作。可用庫存是多少、晶圓廠產出什麼、組合如何、最後要分配到哪裡?所以你要不要再補充一點?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • I think the only thing I would add, obviously, changes depending on the time frame you're looking at. Over the short-term, it's almost impossible to do anything. It takes 120 days or so to produce a wafer. But obviously, as you look further out, there are more degrees of freedom.

    我想我唯一要補充的是,這顯然會取決於你看的時間範圍。短期來看,幾乎不可能做任何調整。生產一片晶圓大約需要120天左右。但顯然,當你把視野拉得更長,就會有更多的調整空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

    C.J. Muse,Cantor Fitzgerald。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • I guess the question on the comment around your NBM pipeline exceeding supply through the end of the decade in the slide deck. I guess, can you elaborate on that? And how is that changing kind of your thought process around what bit supply will look like for the industry over the next handful of years? And how are you adjusting, if at all, your CapEx plans? I know you talked about mid-single-digits, which implies roughly $2.5 billion to $3 billion gross CapEx, fairly low kind of numbers. Would love to hear kind of your thoughts on how the visibility is impacting your thoughts around bit growth and supply.

    我想問題是關於你們簡報投影片中提到的:你們的NBM管線在本十年末之前都會超過供給。可以請你們進一步說明嗎?這如何改變你們對未來幾年產業位元供給樣貌的思考?以及你們是否、以及如何調整資本支出(CapEx)計畫?我知道你們提到中個位數,這意味著約25億到30億美元的總資本支出(gross CapEx),算是相當低的數字。很想聽聽你們對於能見度如何影響你們對位元成長與供給的看法。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I mean, I think my first thing I say about it, C.J., is the process is working. I mean, it was only two or three quarters ago, we talked about even instituting this kind of business model and we had some customers that were like-minded and we made some very good progress and here we are a couple of quarters later and it's, we talked about this after our Investor Day, we had customers coming to us offering NBMs and that now becomes, it's not the only way we do business. There's lots of customers with lots of different volume levels and different products and we want to meet our customers where they are. There's no doubt about that.

    嗯,我想我對此要說的第一件事,C.J.,是這個流程正在發揮作用。我的意思是,就在兩三個季度前,我們才談到要導入這種商業模式;我們有一些志同道合的客戶,也取得了很好的進展。現在幾個季度後,我們在投資人日之後也談過,開始有客戶主動來找我們、提出NBM,於是這就變成——它不是我們做生意的唯一方式。我們有很多客戶、不同的量級與不同的產品,我們希望在客戶所在的位置與他們合作。這點毫無疑問。

  • But it's very good to see that we have a robust pipeline now through the end -- through 2030 and we're even getting beyond that, as we talked about, of customers that are really willing to give us their demand signals and financial commitments. And to the question earlier those kinds of things will allow us, if we choose to eventually start changing supply and demand and all those kinds of things, but we're just not there yet, right? We got to go through negotiations on all of those. We've got to get commitments. We've got to get everything all aligned. But I would say that the process is working well and we're very happy with where it's at and it gives us a lot more visibility into how we plan but the process is still underway, right? It's still underway and as I said, we'll continue to update you over the next couple of quarters as we make progress.

    但很高興看到我們現在有一個強健的管線,一直到2030年——甚至我們也如先前所說,已經延伸到那之後——有客戶真的願意給我們他們的需求訊號與財務承諾。而回到先前的問題,這類安排將使我們在未來如果選擇要開始調整供需等各種事情時有更多工具,但我們現在還沒到那一步,對吧?我們還得就所有這些進行談判。我們必須取得承諾。我們必須把所有事情都對齊。但我會說,這個流程運作得很好,我們對目前的狀態非常滿意,它讓我們在規劃上有更多能見度;不過流程仍在進行中,對吧?它仍在進行中,而且如我所說,我們會在接下來幾個季度隨著進展持續向各位更新。

  • C.J. Muse - Analyst

    C.J. Muse - Analyst

  • Just a quick follow-up for Luis. On these contracts and considering some have deposits, are you able to use those deposits for buybacks or is that cash restricted? Thanks so much.

    給Luis一個快速追問。關於這些合約,考量到有些有訂金,你們能用這些訂金來做庫藏股回購嗎?還是那筆現金是受限制的?非常感謝。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, in theory, we could, C.J., but as we explained at Analyst Day, the vast majority are financial guarantees which are held by third-party financial institutions, so they are not in my balance sheet. The only thing that's in the balance sheet is prepayments and we -- that's by far the smallest amount, but there is no legal restriction on that.

    是的,理論上我們可以,C.J.,但如同我們在分析師日所解釋的,絕大多數是由第三方金融機構持有的財務保證,因此不會列在我的資產負債表上。資產負債表上唯一列示的是預付款,而那——到目前為止是最小的一部分,但在法律上並沒有對其使用作出限制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Karl Ackerman, BNP Paribas.

    Karl Ackerman,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。

  • Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

  • It's encouraging to see increase in NAND content per XPU and AI servers to support KV cache demand, which I think compares to reductions in memory content in some server SKUs. But Dave, could you discuss how you see enterprise SSD content per server progressing in 2027 in the context of this agentic AI proliferation? Because it's certainly becoming a larger portion of your portfolio.

    看到每顆XPU與AI伺服器的NAND含量增加、以支援KV快取需求,這令人鼓舞;我認為這與某些伺服器SKU的記憶體含量下降形成對比。但Dave,你能否談談在代理式AI(agentic AI)普及的背景下,你如何看待2027年每台伺服器的企業級SSD含量演進?因為這確實正在成為你們產品組合中更大的一部分。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, that's a big question, Karl. I mean, look, what we're doing is, there's no doubt in inference in agent orchestration that our product is tied to kind of CPU demand and for those type of applications. I mean, we know at a pretty granular level the amount of demand that we expect per CPU, something 60 to 90 gigabytes per CPU is what we see in those kind of applications.

    是的,這是個很大的問題,Karl。我的意思是,你看,我們正在做的是——毫無疑問,在推論與代理編排(agent orchestration)方面,我們的產品與CPU需求是綁在一起的,針對這類應用而言。我的意思是,我們在相當細的粒度上知道每顆CPU預期會帶來多少需求;在這類應用中,我們看到每顆CPU大約是60到90GB的需求。

  • I haven't run the math against what the server TAM is and kind of what the elasticity is between those two, but we can follow-up on that. But as I said earlier, we continue to see more NAND being pulled into the inference architecture in all parts of the architecture and in very different ways, right? TLC, QLC, and as I said earlier now, people looking for high endurance solutions that will fit parts of the workload where they don't need to use DRAM and they can use that type of NAND. So it's all very encouraging and we'll continue to stay close, but we'll do some work on the two TAM analysis and what the trade-offs are between them.

    我還沒有把這個數字拿去對照伺服器的TAM(總可服務市場)以及兩者之間的彈性關係做計算,但我們可以後續再補充。不過如我先前所說,我們持續看到更多NAND以各種方式被拉進推論架構的各個部分,而且方式非常不同,對吧?TLC、QLC,以及如我先前提到的,現在人們也在尋找高耐久度的解決方案,能夠對應某些工作負載區塊,在那些地方他們不需要用DRAM,而可以用那類NAND。所以這一切都非常令人鼓舞,我們會持續緊密追蹤;同時我們也會做一些關於兩個TAM的分析,以及它們之間取捨的研究。

  • Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

    Karl Ackerman - Equity Analyst

  • Sure. If I may, a quick follow-up. Do you have an updated view or progress on your goal for enterprise SSD share? I mean, can you achieve, perhaps, [that low to maintain share in 2027 because you're seeing quite success]? Right now.

    好的。如果可以的話,我再快速追問一下。你們對企業級SSD市占目標是否有更新的看法或進展?我的意思是,你們是否能在2027年達成——也許——[那個低到維持市占,因為你們看到相當成功]?就目前而言。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, we've tried not. I mean, in the past, like many years ago, we put some share goals out there, and I've tried very hard not to put share goals out there because sometimes it leads to kind of perverse choices in the portfolio. We want to maximize the value of the portfolio across all time horizons, near-term, mid-term, long-term. So we want to keep some balance into it.

    是的,我們一直盡量不——我的意思是,過去很多年前,我們曾像許多公司一樣提出一些市占目標;而我一直很努力不再提出市占目標,因為有時候那會導致產品組合上出現某種扭曲的選擇。我們希望在所有時間尺度上最大化產品組合的價值:短期、中期、長期。所以我們希望在其中保持一些平衡。

  • Clearly, we're going to mix higher into data center. I mean, you see that we talked about that earlier, I think 17x growth year-over-year. You don't see a 17x very often in a business at this scale. And as I said, I expect that to go higher as we go through '27. And the balance point in some ways will depend quarter by quarter what we see and then what NBMs we sign, right? Those will give us a lot of visibility over the next several years where we see that mix going. So it's going higher, but I'm not going to put a specific target out there.

    很明顯,我們會在資料中心的組合占比上持續往上提高。我的意思是,你看到我們先前談到的,我想年對年成長 17 倍。在這種規模的業務中,你不常看到 17 倍。而且如我所說,我預期隨著我們走到 '27 年,這個數字還會更高。而在某些方面,平衡點將取決於我們每一季看到的情況,以及我們簽下哪些 NBM,對吧?這些將在未來幾年為我們提供很高的能見度,讓我們看到那個組合將往哪裡走。所以它會往上走,但我不會在這裡給出一個具體目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

    Vijay Rakesh,瑞穗。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, David. It's just a great quarter and guide. Just a quick question. As you look at data center, 2027 looks like you mentioned 40% demand bit growth, which is massive. As you look at this BiCS 8, BiCS 9, BiCS 10, do they help you drive some bits to meet that demand? How is the supply on that side, I guess?

    是的,嗨,David。這一季的表現和指引都非常出色。我有個簡短問題。當你看資料中心時,你提到 2027 年看起來有 40% 的需求位元成長,這非常龐大。當你看 BiCS 8、BiCS 9、BiCS 10,它們是否能幫助你增加一些位元供給以滿足那個需求?我想問的是,那一端的供應情況如何?

  • A quick follow-up.

    一個快速追問。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, I mean, BiCS 8, BiCS 9; BiCS 9 is a big part of a data center strategy of being able to get faster interface speeds with the same cell and kind of what CBA gives us that flexibility we talked about at Investor Day. So in that sense, yeah, those are big parts of the strategy, there's no doubt about it. So as I said earlier, it's about getting the right product to the right customer and the TLC product has been performing very well for quite some time now, and now we're seeing the ramping of QLC, and we'll see some ramp of BiCS 9, but BiCS 10 is still a little ways out, right? I mean, we announced BiCS 10, but we're still ramping BiCS 8. So we've got a ways to go before we get out to some of those future BiCS nodes.

    你看,我的意思是,BiCS 8、BiCS 9;BiCS 9 是資料中心策略中很重要的一部分,能夠在相同的 cell 下提供更快的介面速度,而這也有點像我們在投資人日談到的,CBA 帶給我們的那種彈性。所以在這個意義上,是的,這些都是策略的重要部分,毫無疑問。所以如我先前所說,重點在於把對的產品交到對的客戶手上,而 TLC 產品在相當長一段時間以來表現都非常好;現在我們也看到 QLC 正在爬坡,我們也會看到 BiCS 9 的一些爬坡,但 BiCS 10 還要再晚一些,對吧?我的意思是,我們已經宣布了 BiCS 10,但我們仍在爬坡 BiCS 8。所以在我們走到那些未來的 BiCS 節點之前,還有一段路要走。

  • Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

    Vijay Rakesh - Analyst

  • Got it, and then on the endurance side, as you mentioned, some of your peers and talking about SLC NAND out there, any thoughts how that plays out next year? Obviously, that could tighten up the NAND market as well in addition to what you're seeing in just overall demand growth, I guess. Thanks.

    了解,那在耐久度方面,你提到你的一些同業在談市場上的 SLC NAND,你對明年這會如何發展有什麼看法嗎?顯然,除了你看到的整體需求成長之外,這也可能讓 NAND 市場供給更吃緊,我想。謝謝。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I think it's a little early to have a very strong view on that, right? We are talking to some customers that are giving us some signals of demand for SLC. I mean, clearly, you start mixing SLC and you're going to take away -- there's a clear trade ratio of 3:1, 4:1, whether it's TLC or QLC. So it will impact the overall supply of the market depending on how much SLC is used and how much really gets deployed, but it's a little early to put a specific forecast on it right now. What I would say, it's an architectural discussion and a request from customers of better understanding the technology and how it could fit parts of the use case as they build out their inference architecture. So we'll update you as we go over the next couple of quarters and we'll see how this develops, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

    是的,我認為現在要對此形成非常強的看法還有點早,對吧?我們正在和一些客戶溝通,他們給了我們一些對 SLC 的需求訊號。我的意思是,很明顯地,一旦你開始混入 SLC,你就會拿掉——在 TLC 或 QLC 的情況下,存在很明確的折算比率 3:1、4:1。因此,這會影響市場的整體供給,取決於使用了多少 SLC,以及實際部署了多少,但現在要給出具體預測還有點早。我想說的是,這是一個架構層面的討論,也是客戶提出的需求:更深入理解這項技術,以及當他們建置推論架構時,它如何能適配部分使用情境。所以接下來幾季我們會隨進展更新你們,看看這如何發展,但這確實是值得關注的事情。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

    Jim Schneider,高盛。

  • James Schneider - Analyst

    James Schneider - Analyst

  • I was wondering, maybe on a more tactical basis. Your consumer business obviously has seasonality in Q1 historically and obviously the PC business does too, but data center is in a sort of secular growth mode. So Luis, based on your visibility at this point, I'm just wondering if you could maybe give us any kind of color on whether you'd expect Q1 to be sequentially up, down or sideways roughly?

    我想問,或許從更戰術的角度來看。你們的消費性業務在歷史上第一季顯然有季節性,PC 業務也一樣,但資料中心則處於一種長期結構性成長模式。所以 Luis,基於你目前的能見度,我想知道你是否能提供一些看法:你預期第一季的表現相較前一季大致是上升、下降,還是持平?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • So fiscal Q3, you mean?

    你是指會計年度第三季,對嗎?

  • James Schneider - Analyst

    James Schneider - Analyst

  • Yes, fiscal, (multiple speakers) March quarter.

    是的,會計年度,(多位講者)三月季度。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, so if you look at historically, right, our Q3 is normally our weakest sequential quarter. So last quarter, for example, our bits were down 19% sequentially. So if -- we're not guiding Q3, but for modeling purposes, I would be conservative in your sequential growth from Q2 to Q3.

    是的,所以如果你看歷史,對吧,我們的第三季通常是我們連續比較中最弱的一季。所以例如上一季,我們的位元出貨量季對季下降了 19%。所以——我們沒有對第三季提供指引,但就建模而言,我會對從第二季到第三季的季增率採取保守假設。

  • James Schneider - Analyst

    James Schneider - Analyst

  • And then just as a matter of principle on the buybacks, good to see the continued execution there. I'm sort of curious as you sort of start to run down the authorization, would you expect the Board -- to re-up their authorization on a quarterly basis or maybe you can provide us any more color on how you're thinking about executing on the actual buybacks given a much lower stock price today?

    另外,關於庫藏股回購的原則性問題,很高興看到你們持續執行。我有點好奇,當你們開始用完核准額度時,你預期董事會會以季度為基礎重新核准額度嗎?或者你能否提供更多你們如何思考實際回購執行的細節,尤其是在今天股價低很多的情況下?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, so we have a very clear strategy. 100% of excess cash is going to go back to shareholders. We're going to execute that aggressively or appropriately. And we know how to get a hold of the board. We have meetings every quarter. And so I don't expect any impedance on that side of the -- from us about how we execute. I expect us to continue to be -- I don't expect us to be -- we will be continue to be faithful to our strategy, which is we're going to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. We're off to a good start, I think, over the last couple of quarters. I think we bought back 4% of the market capital or of the shares outstanding of where we started, and we're going to continue to execute that program appropriately.

    是的,所以我們有非常明確的策略。100% 的超額現金都會回饋給股東。我們會積極或以適當的方式執行。而且我們知道如何聯繫董事會。我們每一季都有會議。因此,我不預期在我們如何執行這件事上會有任何阻礙——從我們這邊來看。我預期我們會持續——我不預期我們會——我們會持續忠於我們的策略,也就是把 100% 的超額現金回饋給股東。我認為過去幾季我們有個不錯的開始。我想我們回購了約 4% 的市值,或是相對於我們起始時的流通在外股數回購了約 4%,而我們會持續以適當方式執行這個計畫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。

  • Steven Chin - Analyst

    Steven Chin - Analyst

  • This is [Steven] calling on behalf of Krish. First question I have for Dave. I guess looking at your CSP customer base, kind of wanted to get some color on what the prevailing demand currently is between TLC versus QLC bits. And kind of going forward with the NBMs in place, does that TLC versus QLC mix shift meaningfully later this decade?

    我是代表 Krish 的 [Steven]。我第一個問題想問 Dave。我想從你們的 CSP 客戶基礎來看,想請你分享一下目前 TLC 與 QLC 位元之間的主流需求狀況。以及往後在 NBM 到位的情況下,這個 TLC 對 QLC 的組合占比在本十年後期是否會出現有意義的變化?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We're still like at that 70:30 number on TLC to QLC. TLC has been a big driver of the portfolio. We are hearing more from our customers about a reacceleration of QLC in different use cases. And so we'll see how that plays out, as you said, through the end of the decade. But that's where it is. I mean, that 70:30 number is a pretty good number. And of course, there's some fluctuation quarter to quarter, a little bit up and down here and there. But that's where it's been and that's where we expect it to be, at least for the rest of this fiscal year. We might put that time horizon and then we'll see where -- what customers are thinking about QLC as we continue to have those discussions.

    我們目前仍大致維持在 TLC 對 QLC 為 70:30 的比例。TLC 一直是產品組合的重要驅動力。我們也從客戶那邊聽到更多訊息,表示 QLC 在不同使用情境下正在重新加速。所以我們會看看如你所說,這在本十年結束前會如何發展。但目前就是這樣。我的意思是,70:30 這個數字相當不錯。當然,每一季之間會有一些波動,這裡那裡上下起伏一點。但一直以來大致如此,而且我們也預期至少在本會計年度剩餘期間會維持這樣。我們可能會先以這個時間範圍來看,然後隨著我們持續進行這些討論,再看看——客戶對 QLC 的想法是什麼。

  • I will say the ramp, the Stargate product has been, which is our QLC product, don't use too many internal names here, but it's been very well received. It was not that many quarters ago that we were talking about going through qualifications, that's all 100% behind us, customers are ramping. It's been a very well-received product and a very key part of the portfolio.

    我想說的是,這個爬坡(ramp),Stargate 產品——也就是我們的 QLC 產品——我就不在這裡用太多內部名稱了,但它的市場反應非常好。就在不久前的幾個季度,我們還在談通過認證(qualification)的過程;現在這些已經 100% 都在我們身後了,客戶正在加速放量。這是一款非常受歡迎的產品,也是我們產品組合中非常關鍵的一部分。

  • Steven Chin - Analyst

    Steven Chin - Analyst

  • Got you. And as a quick follow-up, a question on the mobile Edge market, just given the double-digit unit declines in that market this year as well, albeit concentrated in the kind of entry and mid-tier of the market. I'm kind of curious, like, from the demand signals that some of your customers in that are giving you. Can your mobile bits still grow next year overall?

    了解。再快速追問一下,關於行動 Edge 市場的問題:考量到今年該市場的出貨量也出現兩位數下滑,雖然主要集中在入門與中階市場。我有點好奇,從你們那邊一些客戶給出的需求訊號來看。你們的行動端位元(mobile bits)明年整體還能成長嗎?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think let's talk about the market first. I mean, you got it. I mean, the low end is under pressure, but that leads to a unit decline, but a content per unit increasing. So when you add it all up, we expect growth of exabytes in that market next year on a slightly declining unit count.

    我想我們先談市場本身。你的理解沒錯。低階市場確實承壓,這會導致出貨量下滑,但每台裝置的內容量(content per unit)在提升。所以把這些加總起來,我們預期明年該市場的 EB(exabytes)需求會成長,即使出貨量小幅下降。

  • As far as our portfolio, I mean, it's kind of like data, I don't want to make projections on individual markets. We will manage the portfolio with agility and flexibility. We've been very clear that we want balance in the portfolio, but we're going to optimize the financial outcome over the short-, mid-, and long-term, kind of integrate those to get the best outcome. And we'll update you on what the mix of mobile is as we go forward.

    至於我們的產品組合,我的意思是,這有點像資料中心那邊,我不想對單一市場做預測。我們會以敏捷與彈性來管理產品組合。我們一直很清楚地表示希望產品組合保持平衡,但我們會在短期、中期與長期之間做最佳化,以整合這些面向來取得最佳的財務結果。至於行動端的占比(mix),我們會在後續進展中再向各位更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

    Wamsi Mohan,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you so much. In your slides that you say leading AI companies could indicate further demand upside. I was wondering if these are AI labs or neo clouds and are any of the credit concerns around the neo clouds filtering back to you in any way that you can see at the moment? And I will follow-up.

    是的,非常感謝。你們在投影片中提到,領先的 AI 公司可能顯示需求還有進一步上行空間。我想請問這些是 AI 實驗室(AI labs)還是新型雲端(neo clouds)?另外,圍繞新型雲端的一些信用疑慮,是否有任何跡象回傳到你們這邊、讓你們目前看得到?我後面還有追問。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, we haven't seen any of that. To the contrary, you were seeing very strong demand from our customers. And as I said, if I look at our largest customers, they are basically all investment grade companies, right, generating very strong cash. So we're not seeing any impacts from any credit issues whatsoever if they are out in the market. And demand from our customers is, if anything, strengthening versus what it was a quarter ago.

    是的,我們沒有看到任何那樣的情況。相反地,我們看到客戶端需求非常強勁。而且如我所說,如果我看我們最大的客戶,他們基本上都是投資等級公司,對吧,現金流非常強。所以即便市場上存在任何信用問題,我們完全沒有看到任何影響。而且客戶需求如果說有什麼變化的話,反而是相較一季前更強。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • So to clarify there, Luis, when you say leading AI companies, are you offering to AI labs over there?

    所以我想釐清一下,Luis,你說的「領先的 AI 公司」,你們也有賣給那邊的 AI 實驗室嗎?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • We sell to everybody in our business. We sell to hyperscalers, we sell to model makers, we sell to everybody.

    我們的業務是賣給所有人。我們賣給超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers),也賣給模型開發者(model makers),我們賣給所有人。

  • Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

    Wamsi Mohan - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks, Luis. And then just on linearity in the quarter. It seems like receivables picked up a little bit. Is that something that we should expect because of payment terms as more bits go under NBM or was there something else in the quarter?

    好的,謝謝你,Luis。接著想問一下本季的線性(linearity)。看起來應收帳款(receivables)有小幅上升。這是因為隨著更多位元納入 NBM 而導致付款條件(payment terms)所致、因此我們應該預期會這樣嗎?還是本季有其他因素?

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • No, we basically saw a little bit of a change in customer mix and that has a little bit of an impact on our receivables, [a little bit only in the RET], but it's mostly customer mix.

    沒有,我們基本上看到的是客戶組合(customer mix)有一點變化,這對我們的應收帳款有一些影響,[在 RET 方面只有一點點],但主要就是客戶組合的因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Amit Daryanani, Evercore.

    Amit Daryanani,Evercore。

  • Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

    Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

  • I guess, David, just to start with on the capital allocation side, as you transition towards becoming a more predictable NBM-driven business model, does that change how you think about your capital structure? And historically, I think memory is perceived to be more cyclical, so balance sheet flexibility has been important. But as you become structurally, I think, less cyclical, would that support a willingness to take on leverage and potentially accelerate the capital returns, or is it comfort still with the $5 billion buyback, which is fairly impressive? I'm just wondering, at what point do you say we can take on more leverage and take advantage of the fact that we're less cyclical?

    David,我想先從資本配置(capital allocation)談起:當你們轉型成更可預測、由 NBM 驅動的商業模式時,這會改變你們對資本結構(capital structure)的看法嗎?歷史上,我想記憶體被認為更具循環性,因此資產負債表的彈性一直很重要。但當你們在結構上變得、我認為、較不具循環性時,這是否會支持你們更願意承擔槓桿(leverage),並可能加速資本回饋?或者你們仍然對 50 億美元的回購(buyback)感到滿意——那其實已經相當令人印象深刻。我只是想了解,你們在什麼時點會說我們可以承擔更多槓桿,並利用我們較不具循環性的特性?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, I mean, we put a financial model out. I mean, we just spent 3.5 hours talking about this in our Analyst Day, and we committed to a financial model through the end of the -- through 2030, which I think was pretty impressive. And we plan to execute that and we're very comfortable with the strategy we have of staying debt-free, very strong balance sheet and then returning, investing in our business. We have a growing business and lots of opportunities for internal innovation, which we're going to continue to invest in like HBF and 3D Matrix Memory in addition to the BiCS roadmap and all the great products we build.

    是的,我的意思是,我們已經提出了一個財務模型。我們在分析師日(Analyst Day)花了 3.5 小時討論這件事,並且承諾提供一個一路到 2030 年底的財務模型,我認為這相當令人印象深刻。我們計畫去執行它,而且我們對目前的策略非常有信心:維持零負債(debt-free)、非常強健的資產負債表,然後把資金回饋與投資於我們的業務。我們的業務在成長,內部創新也有很多機會;我們會持續投資,例如 HBF 和 3D Matrix Memory,此外還有 BiCS 路線圖以及我們打造的所有優秀產品。

  • And after we do that, we're going to return 100% of the cash flow to shareholders and that's the plan and we're going to go execute that for the foreseeable future until we get up at another point and tell you we're going to change it, but I don't anticipate that happening in any kind of near-term time frame.

    在做完這些之後,我們會把 100% 的現金流回饋給股東,這就是計畫;而且在可預見的未來我們都會照此執行,直到某個時間點我們再站出來告訴各位要改變,但我不預期在任何近期時間範圍內會發生。

  • Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

    Amit Daryanani - Equity Analyst

  • Fair enough. And then maybe just on HBF and rather trying to ask you to frame how big this TAM could be, could you just talk about what the scaling variable really is over here as inference models and context windows expand? Should we think HBF capacity will grow in line to GPU compute or potentially faster? And I think you said you saw initial sampling in '27. What are the key milestones from there to becoming a meaningful revenue ramp as well?

    了解。接著也許談一下 HBF:我不一定要你們去界定這個 TAM 可能有多大,但能否談談,當推論模型(inference models)與上下文視窗(context windows)擴大時,這裡真正的擴展變數(scaling variable)是什麼?我們應該認為 HBF 產能會與 GPU 算力同步成長,還是可能更快?另外我想你提到在 2027 年會看到初期送樣(initial sampling)。從那之後到成為有意義的營收放量(revenue ramp),關鍵里程碑有哪些?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, I mean, so it's a little early for your first question, but on the second question, we get the die back, we have the base die, which we'll tape out, which is the controller, we'll put them together, put it in customers' hands, and then they start to see how the product is going to work in their infrastructure. We've obviously done a lot of modeling on that, but actually having the actual product and then doing the integration work, that will then lead -- that kind of feedback from the customer will then lead to be able to start to answer some of the questions that people have like what's the market opportunity, how fast is it going to happen, what's the TAM, where exactly is the architecture going to fit.

    嗯,我的意思是,對你第一個問題現在還有點早;但就第二個問題而言,我們會拿回晶粒(die),我們有基礎晶粒(base die),我們會進行流片(tape out),也就是控制器(controller),然後把它們組合起來,交到客戶手上,接著他們就會開始看到這個產品在他們的基礎架構中會如何運作。我們當然已經做了大量建模(modeling),但真正拿到實際產品並進行整合工作後,客戶的回饋就會讓我們能開始回答大家的一些問題,例如市場機會是什麼、會以多快速度發生、TAM 有多大、以及這個架構究竟會落在什麼位置。

  • We're going to follow our customers on that, but the big step is to actually put a product in their hands and then that leads to a whole other set of conversations with them. We actually have the device that we're instead of running simulations, we're seeing exactly how it performs in their infrastructure and does it deliver the results of what they're expecting and that also helps you continue to expand the set of use cases, right, at this point in development process, you want to be a little bit careful, you don't engage too much because you're overwhelming your engineering team with 1,000 ideas of how the product can be used.

    我們會跟著客戶的需求走,但最大的步驟是先把產品真正交到他們手上,接著就會引出與他們的另一整套對話。我們實際上有裝置在手,不再只是跑模擬,而是能在他們的基礎架構中精確看到它的表現如何、是否交付他們所期待的結果;這也能幫助你持續擴展使用情境(use cases)的集合。對吧,在開發流程的這個階段,你會希望稍微謹慎一些,不要投入過多,因為那會用 1,000 個產品使用方式的點子把你的工程團隊淹沒。

  • So as we get actual device that we can put in people's hands, we can open the aperture on those kind of conversations, which will, I think, will lead to more use cases for the product. That's still TBD. So I think a lot of things start to happen when you get to that next milestone of actually having a real product that people can start to use and understand how it impacts what they're trying to do, which is deliver a world-class inference architecture at the best cost point possible. And we think this is a fantastic technology for doing that, but we'll see when we get there and we produce it.

    因此,當我們拿到真正可以交到人們手上的實際裝置時,我們就能把這類對話的範圍打開,我認為這將帶來更多該產品的使用案例。這仍有待確認(TBD)。所以我認為,當你達到下一個里程碑——真正擁有一個人們可以開始使用並理解它如何影響他們想做的事情的實際產品——很多事情就會開始發生,而他們想做的事情就是以盡可能最佳的成本點,交付世界級的推論架構。我們認為這是一項非常棒的技術來做到這一點,但等我們走到那一步並把它做出來時再看。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

    Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Yes, thanks for taking my question. David, I want to go back to, sorry for the audio. David, I want to go back to what you said earlier. It said that AI inferencing. Is being refined having an impact and more SLC needed. And my question to you is this having an adverse impact on adoption of TLC or the growth of [TLC or SLC is additive to the bit demand by TLC and QLC]?

    是的,謝謝讓我提問。David,我想回到——抱歉音訊問題。David,我想回到你先前說的內容。你提到 AI 推論。正在被更精細化,並帶來影響,且需要更多 SLC。我想問的是:這是否會對 TLC 的採用或成長造成不利影響,還是說(TLC 或 SLC 會在 TLC 與 QLC 的位元需求之上帶來額外增量)?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, I don't think it's a cannibalization of other NAND products. I think it's an expansion of the TAM into areas that you need a different attribute to the technology. You need different endurance, you need different performance, and we can take our product and we can run anything out of the fab in an SLC mode, so there's a lot of flexibility in the product and I think our people are discovering that and starting to understand how can I apply this in ways where I get the attributes I want for the problem I'm trying to solve.

    不,我不認為這是在蠶食其他 NAND 產品。我認為這是把 TAM(可服務總市場)擴展到一些你需要不同技術屬性的領域。你需要不同的耐久度,你需要不同的效能,而我們可以把我們的產品以 SLC 模式來運行,工廠(fab)出來的任何東西都能以 SLC 模式跑,所以產品有很大的彈性;我認為我們的人正在發現這點,並開始理解:我該如何把它用在一些情境中,讓我能取得我想要的屬性來解決我正在嘗試解決的問題。

  • So it's just a more refined view of the architecture, but I don't see it as cannibalizing other parts of the NAND stack. If anything, I see it as, and I want to be careful on this because it's still early, but it's -- is it good enough to replace places where I'm using DRAM, right? Can I get enough endurance? Can I get enough performance if I run NAND in an SLC mode? Because the cost differential is like, huge, 20 to 40X. So I take it as a very healthy sign on many ways, Mehdi.

    所以這只是對架構更精細化的看法,但我不認為它會蠶食 NAND 堆疊的其他部分。如果真要說,我看到的是——我得小心講,因為還很早——但它是否足以取代我目前使用 DRAM 的一些地方,對吧?我能否得到足夠的耐久度?如果我用 SLC 模式來跑 NAND,我能否得到足夠的效能?因為成本差異非常巨大,大約是 20 到 40 倍。所以我把這視為在很多方面都非常健康的訊號,Mehdi。

  • One is like very real about how you scale an architecture. When you scale an architecture, you got to do it the most cost effective way possible. Again, NAND is the most scalable semiconductor technology, and so it doesn't surprise me that people are finding more ways to use it. In many ways, I think scalable technologies kind of attract TAM, and I think that's what's happening here is these architectures are getting more detailed and more refined.

    其中一點是:關於你如何擴展一個架構,這是非常現實的問題。當你擴展一個架構時,你必須以盡可能最具成本效益的方式來做。再說一次,NAND 是最具可擴展性的半導體技術,所以人們找到更多使用它的方法並不讓我意外。在很多方面,我認為可擴展的技術會吸引 TAM,而我認為這裡正在發生的就是:這些架構正變得更細緻、更精煉。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, let me cover it from a different angle, and if there is this demand for more enduring SLC and as customers wait for commercialization of HBF, what is the JV's flexibility in adding some SLC capacity to meet that short-term demand?

    好的,讓我從另一個角度來問:如果市場對更高耐久度的 SLC 有這樣的需求,而客戶又在等待 HBF 的商業化,那麼合資企業(JV)在增加一些 SLC 產能以滿足短期需求方面,有多大的彈性?

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No, we don't, I mean -- we don't, there is no, I mean, I wouldn't think of it as SLC capacity. You can take any, our cells are flexible enough that we can run them in whatever mode we want, SLC, MLC, TLC. So we can supply the market with the wafers we have, right? That's how we think about it. I understand the question of wanting to go to the supply question right away, but it's just like super early for that. These are just conversations at this point and customers exploring how they can use technology, starting to get some idea of what their demand would be if they use it this way.

    不,我們不——我的意思是——我們不會把它想成是 SLC 產能。你可以把任何——我們的儲存單元(cells)彈性夠高,我們可以用任何我們想要的模式來運行:SLC、MLC、TLC。所以我們可以用我們現有的晶圓(wafers)來供應市場,對吧?我們是這樣看待的。我理解你想立刻切到供給面的問題,但現在談這個還太早了。目前這些都還只是對話階段,客戶在探索他們如何使用這項技術,並開始對如果用這種方式使用時,他們的需求可能會是什麼樣子有一些概念。

  • Something to keep your eye on. It will impact the market because (technical difficulty) SLC is, a little bit of SLC (technical difficulty) Lot of QLC, but I guess more to come, Mehdi.

    這是值得你持續關注的事情。它會影響市場,因為(技術困難)SLC 是——一點點 SLC(技術困難)很多 QLC,但我想後續還會有更多內容,Mehdi。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this point, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

    各位女士先生,至此我們將結束今天的問答環節。我想把時間交回給管理層做任何結語。

  • David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    David Goeckeler - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • All right, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. We appreciate it. Great conversation, and we look forward to seeing you throughout the quarter. Thank you.

    好的,各位。感謝大家參與本次電話會議。我們非常感謝。很棒的交流,我們也期待在本季度期間與各位再見面。謝謝。

  • Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

    Luis Felipe Visoso - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    至此,我們將結束今天的電話會議與簡報。非常感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛斷電話線路。