殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everyone. Today, Sinead and I will be presenting our second quarter results for 2023. During Capital Markets Day, we reiterated our commitment to our Powering Progress strategy, including net-zero emissions by 2050. We also outlined our plans over the coming years to deliver more value with less emissions. I'm pleased with the progress that we are making on our journey.

歡迎大家。今天，Sinead 和我將公佈2023 年第二季業績。在資本市場日期間，我們重申了對推動進步策略的承諾，包括到2050 年實現淨零排放。我們還概述了未來幾年的計劃，以實現更多目標減少排放的價值。我對我們在旅途中取得的進展感到高興。

In the first half of this year, we delivered our second highest adjusted earnings in a decade, better than in the same period in 2014 when the average Brent oil price stood at some $110 per barrel compared with $80 per barrel this year. And we continue to help our customers cut their carbon emissions while reducing emissions from our own operations. For instance, in the first half of this year, we removed 0.4 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions through abatement projects. This removal is equivalent to taking more than 160,000 cars off of Europe's roads for a year.

今年上半年，我們實現了十年來第二高的調整後獲利，好於 2014 年同期，當時布蘭特原油平均價格約為每桶 110 美元，而今年為每桶 80 美元。我們繼續幫助客戶減少碳排放，同時減少我們自身營運的排放。例如，今年上半年，我們透過減排計畫減少了40萬噸溫室氣體排放。此次拆除相當於歐洲道路上一年內減少 16 萬多輛汽車。

Performance, discipline and simplification continue to be our guiding principles. And in the second quarter, we demonstrated strong operational performance across our portfolio. Take Prelude, our floating LNG facility in Australia, which delivered its highest quarterly production since start-up in 2018.

績效、紀律和簡化仍然是我們的指導原則。在第二季度，我們的整個投資組合展現了強勁的營運表現。以我們位於澳洲的浮動液化天然氣設施 Prelude 為例，該設施實現了自 2018 年啟動以來的最高季度產量。

In Renewables and Energy Solutions, our CrossWind JV produced its first green electricity in June. This is an exciting ongoing project that, when completed, is expected to produce around 3% of the Netherlands' total demand for electricity. In the Gulf of Mexico, our turnaround operations at Appomattox, Perdido and Olympus were safely completed ahead of schedule and below budget.

在再生能源和能源解決方案領域，我們的 CrossWind 合資企業於 6 月生產了第一批綠色電力。這是一個令人興奮的正在進行的項目，完成後預計將滿足荷蘭總電力需求的 3% 左右。在墨西哥灣，我們在阿波馬托克斯、佩爾迪多和奧林巴斯的周轉作業提前且低於預算安全完成。

And in Downstream, our improved Shell V-Power formulation, which can clean up to 100% of deposits on vital engine parts, delivered strong volume and margin growth.

在下游，我們改進的殼牌 V-Power 配方可以清除重要引擎零件上高達 100% 的沉積物，實現了強勁的銷售和利潤成長。

However, despite the strong operational performance, our financial results were impacted by lower commodity prices, planned maintenance and the skew of our LNG portfolio towards the northern hemisphere winter. Our 4 quarter business and financial delivery has been strong, enabling us to responsibly invest in our businesses, reduce debt, all while enhancing shareholder distributions.

然而，儘管營運表現強勁，我們的財務表現仍受到大宗商品價格下跌、計畫維護以及液化天然氣投資組合向北半球冬季傾斜的影響。我們第四季的業務和財務交付強勁，使我們能夠負責任地投資我們的業務，減少債務，同時加強股東分配。

At our Capital Markets Day, we announced a 15% step-up in the dividend and a plan to buy back a minimum of $5 billion of shares in the second half of 2023, subject to Board approval. We continue to believe our shares represent significant value. And so today, in addition to delivering on the dividend increase, we are commencing a buyback program of $3 billion for the next 3 months.

在資本市場日，我們宣布將股利提高 15%，並計劃在 2023 年下半年回購至少 50 億美元的股票，但須經董事會批准。我們仍然相信我們的股票具有巨大的價值。因此，今天，除了增加股利外，我們還將在未來 3 個月內啟動 30 億美元的回購計畫。

With that, let me hand over to Sinead to tell us more about our financial results in the quarter.

接下來，請讓 Sinead 向我們介紹更多有關本季財務表現的資訊。

Thank you, Wael. We delivered resilient financial results in the second quarter. Our adjusted earnings were $5.1 billion, and we delivered $15.1 billion of cash flow from operations, including a working capital inflow of $4.8 billion. The working capital inflow was mainly due to lower prices, inflows from initial margin and a reduction in the clients receivable.

謝謝你，韋爾。我們在第二季度實現了富有彈性的財務表現。我們的調整後收益為 51 億美元，營運現金流為 151 億美元，其中營運資本流入為 48 億美元。營運資金流入主要是由於價格下跌、初始保證金流入、客戶應收帳款減少所致。

In Integrated Gas and Upstream, we saw lower prices, fewer trading and optimization opportunities due to seasonality and lower production due to planned maintenance, which included higher value barrels in the Gulf of Mexico. As Wael mentioned and as we outlined during Capital Markets Day, our LNG portfolio is geared towards a northern hemisphere winter, making Q1 and Q4 typically stronger than Q2 and Q3.

在綜合天然氣和上游領域，我們看到價格較低，由於季節性而導致的交易和優化機會減少，以及由於計劃維護（其中包括墨西哥灣的高價值桶）導致的產量下降。正如韋爾所提到的以及我們在資本市場日期間所概述的那樣，我們的液化天然氣投資組合面向北半球冬季，使得第一季和第四季通常強於第二季和第三季。

In our Downstream and R&ES businesses, marketing achieved one of its highest mobility unit margins in recent years, largely due to a combination of the driving season in the U.S. and an improving macro environment.

在我們的下游和 R&ES 業務中，行銷部門實現了近年來最高的行動部門利潤率之一，這主要歸功於美國的駕駛季節和不斷改善的宏觀環境。

In Chemicals and Products, the Products business was impacted by fewer trading and optimization opportunities than in the first quarter, whilst Chemicals margins remain below historical averages despite a slight improvement quarter-on-quarter.

在化學品和產品領域，產品業務受到交易和優化機會少於第一季的影響，而化學品利潤率儘管比第一季略有改善，但仍低於歷史平均水平。

Moving on to our financial framework. Today, we are lowering our 2023 cash CapEx outlook to $23 billion to $26 billion, as we continue to demonstrate discipline in our capital spend. We have brought down our net debt to around $40 billion, which is almost half of what it was in 2019. And finally, we are delivering on the 15% dividend increase that we announced at Capital Markets Day, whilst also today announcing a $3 billion buyback program for the next 3 months.

繼續我們的財務框架。今天，我們將 2023 年現金資本支出預期下調至 230 億至 260 億美元，因為我們將繼續恪守資本支出紀律。我們已將淨債務降至 400 億美元左右，幾乎是 2019 年的一半。最後，我們將兌現我們在資本市場日宣布的 15% 股息增長，同時今天還宣布增加 30 億美元未來3個月的回購計劃。

As we continue to believe our shares represent significant value, we will commence a program of at least $2.5 billion at the Q3 results, subject to Board approval. Together, this means we are meeting our target shareholder distributions of 30% to 40% of our CFFO through the cycle.

由於我們仍然相信我們的股票具有巨大價值，因此我們將在第三季業績中啟動一項至少 25 億美元的計劃，但須經董事會批准。總之，這意味著我們在整個週期中實現了 CFFO 30% 至 40% 的股東分配目標。

And with that, I'll hand back over to Wael.

說到這裡，我將把任務交回給韋爾。

Thank you, Sinead. Looking ahead to Q3, the macro outlook continues to be uncertain with mixed demand signals in China, healthy inventory levels in Europe and Asia, but with general tightness in the supply of oil and gas in the medium term. And in our own operations, we will undertake considerable planned maintenance activities, including the Prelude and Trinidad and Tobago IG assets in the coming months.

謝謝你，西妮德。展望第三季度，宏觀前景仍然不確定，中國的需求訊號好壞參半，歐洲和亞洲的庫存水準健康，但中期石油和天然氣供應普遍緊張。在我們自己的營運中，我們將進行大量的計劃維護活動，包括未來幾個月的 Prelude 和特立尼達和多巴哥 IG 資產。

We will continue to deliver more value with less emissions, not through words but through actions, remaining committed to our guiding principles of performance, discipline and simplification and aiming to be the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

我們將繼續以更少的排放創造更多的價值，不是透過言語，而是透過行動，繼續致力於我們的績效、紀律和簡化的指導原則，並致力於成為能源轉型的投資案例。謝謝。