Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Michael, before we get into the numbers, in your PR, you're calling for urgent ATC reform.

邁克爾，在我們討論數字之前，您在公關中呼籲緊急進行空中交通管制改革。

Why?

為什麼？

Well, ATC, in the last 10 days of June, delayed 1 in 3 Ryanair flight departures, as it did for many other airlines across Europe.

嗯，ATC 在 6 月的最後 10 天推遲了瑞安航空三分之一的航班起飛，就像它對歐洲許多其他航空公司所做的那樣。

ATC fees across Europe have risen by 15% over the last three years, and yet they are meaningfully understaffed.

過去三年，歐洲各地的 ATC 費用上漲了 15%，但人手嚴重不足。

We're suffering repeated equipment failures, and they're failing to deliver the service we're paying such record prices for.

我們的設備屢屢發生故障，而他們卻無法提供我們支付創紀錄價格的服務。

It's unacceptable.

這是不可接受的。

Last year, French had 57 days of ATC strikes.

去年，法國發生了 57 天的 ATC 罷工。

This year, so far, we've had three days of French ATC strikes, but actually the ATC performance and ATC delays are up because of this short staffing.

今年，到目前為止，法國空中交通管制已經發生了三天的罷工，但實際上，由於人員配備不足，空中交通管制的表現和空中交通管制的延誤都增加了。

We're now calling on EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the Parliament to stop long fingering ATC reform and deliver two key reforms: you must compel ATC to fully staff for the summer schedule; and two, you must protect overflights during of national ATC strikes.

我們現在呼籲歐盟委員會主席烏蘇拉·馮德萊恩和議會停止對 ATC 改革的長期拖延，並實施兩項關鍵改革：必須迫使 ATC 為夏季計劃配備充足的人員；第二，您必須在國家空中交通管制罷工期間保護飛越。

Moving to the fleet, what's the latest update on Gamechanger deliveries?

轉向艦隊，Gamechanger 交付的最新更新是什麼？

We had 156 of the Gamechangers in the fleet at the end of June, which is 10 ahead of where we were at year end.

截至 6 月底，我們的機隊中有 156 架遊戲規則改變者，比年底多了 10 架。

Given how July deliveries are going at the moment, we'd expect to be over 160 by the end of July.

鑑於目前 7 月的交付情況，我們預計到 7 月底將超過 160 架。

So 160 of those available for the peak summer period.

因此，其中 160 個可用於夏季高峰期。

But we had plans to have an additional 20 ahead of that when we were setting our stall out for the current financial year.

但當我們為本財政年度安排攤位時，我們計劃提前 20 個。

We continue to work very closely.

我們將繼續密切合作。

As Michael already said, with Boeing weekly calls taking place to make sure that we get the aircraft on time.

正如邁克爾已經說過的，波音公司每週都會打電話來確保我們準時收到飛機。

And in fairness, we've noticed that the quality and the frequency of deliveries has improved.

公平地說，我們注意到交付的品質和頻率都提高了。

There's always the risk of Boeing -- further Boeing delivery delays.

波音公司始終存在風險——波音公司的交付進一步延遲。

But at this point in time, our focus has now changed very much towards getting in the additional 50 aircraft that are left in the order book this summer of next year, 2025.

但此時此刻，我們的重點已發生很大變化，轉向在明年（2025 年）今年夏天訂購剩餘的 50 架飛機。

And will you receive compensation for those delivery delays?

您會因為這些交貨延誤而獲得補償嗎？

We get very modest compensation, mostly in the form of maintenance and other credits.

我們得到的補償非常有限，主要是維持費和其他積分的形式。

Our focus however has been getting the deliveries in here before we get to the end of July, so at least we have the maximum number of aircraft available for August.

然而，我們的重點是在 7 月底之前將貨物交付到這裡，因此至少我們有 8 月可用的最大數量的飛機。

But the compensation we receive will not reflect the significant loss we're suffering as a result of being 20 aircraft short, which means this year we've reduced our full year traffic guidance back from 205 million down to 200 million.

但我們收到的補償並不能反映我們因缺少 20 架飛機而遭受的重大損失，這意味著今年我們將全年客流量指引從 2.05 億人次下調至 2 億人次。

Looking ahead, when do you expect the MAX 10 to be certified?

展望未來，您預計 MAX 10 何時獲得認證？

There's a couple of steps in this.

其中有幾個步驟。

We have to see the MAX 7 certified first.

我們必須先看到 MAX 7 通過認證。

Based on what we're hearing and our expectations, we think that will likely get certified at some stage in the first half of 2025.

根據我們所聽到的情況和我們的期望，我們認為這可能會在 2025 年上半年的某個階段獲得認證。

That would then put the MAX 10 in a good position to be certified in the second half of 2025.

這將使 MAX 10 能夠在 2025 年下半年獲得認證。

And we're still very much planning on the base of having our first MAX 10 in H1 2027.

我們仍在計劃在 2027 年上半年推出首款 MAX 10。

Back to your summer 24 schedule, what are the call-outs?

回到你的夏季 24 小時日程安排，有哪些特別安排？

Well, volumes are strong and we expect volumes to remain strong over the rest of the summer.

嗯，銷量強勁，我們預計夏季剩餘時間銷售將保持強勁。

I think you can see from our June numbers that we carried record traffic over 19 million passengers for the first time.

我想你可以從我們 6 月的數據中看到，我們的客運量首次超過 1900 萬人次，創下歷史新高。

Pricing, however, remains soft and we would expect it to be weaker throughout the summer than in the same period last year.

然而，價格仍然疲軟，我們預計整個夏季的價格將低於去年同期。

This summer, however, we're operating a record schedule.

然而，今年夏天，我們的日程安排創下了紀錄。

We've got 200 new destinations, five new bases including for example in Morocco, Tangier, which ties in very nicely with the domestic route operation that we have down there this summer as well.

我們有 200 個新目的地、5 個新基地，包括摩洛哥、丹吉爾，這與我們今年夏天在當地的國內航線運營緊密結合。

We're committed to delivering as much low fare travel as we can this summer.

我們致力於在今年夏天提供盡可能多的低價旅行。

And I believe indeed over the rest of the year to our customers and our airport partners.

我相信在今年剩下的時間裡，我們的客戶和機場合作夥伴確實會取得進展。

And to that end, not only will we continue to take delivery of aircraft through July and August where we won't necessarily be able, and September, where we won't be able to put them into the peak summer schedule but we've also now extended three of the Lauda A320 leases out to 2028, again to facilitate as much growth as we can.

為此，我們不僅將繼續在 7 月和 8 月接收飛機（我們不一定能夠這樣做），而且在 9 月（我們無法將它們納入夏季高峰時間表），但我們已經現在，我們還將其中三架Lauda A320 的租賃期限延長至2028 年，這也是為了盡可能促進成長。

And what's your view on intra-European capacity over the next few years?

您對未來幾年歐洲內部產能有何看法？

We're going to remain significantly constrained for the next number of years.

在接下來的幾年裡，我們將繼續受到嚴重限制。

We can see even this year, if you look at the Eurocontrol numbers, we're running at about 95% of pre-COVID capacity on average daily flights.

即使今年，如果您查看歐洲空中安全組織的數據，我們也可以看到，我們的平均每日航班運力僅佔新冠疫情爆發前的 95% 左右。

Now, some of that may close in a little bit into the peak summer.

現在，其中一些可能會在夏季高峰期結束時結束。

But the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issue for A320 operators is not going away.

但 A320 業者面臨的普惠 GTF 引擎問題並沒有消失。

It's going to take a couple of years to sort that out.

解決這個問題需要幾年的時間。

OEMs, Boeing and Airbus way behind on the deliveries.

原始設備製造商、波音和空中巴士的交付量遠遠落後。

We're not going to see that backlog getting closed anytime soon.

我們不會很快看到積壓的訂單被關閉。

And then on the back of all of the capacity that come out during COVID, we're seeing the M&A story play out in Europe.

然後，在新冠疫情期間釋放出的所有產能的支持下，我們看到併購故事在歐洲上演。

We already saw the ITA-Lufthansa deal get the green light in recent weeks.

最近幾週，我們已經看到 ITA 與漢莎航空的交易獲得批准。

I think the Air Europa-IAG deal will also get a positive decision from the European Commission soon.

我認為歐洲航空公司與 IAG 的交易也將很快得到歐盟委員會的積極決定。

And then TAP is going to go to market if not this year, most likely into next year.

然後，TAP 將在今年上市，很可能會在明年上市。

And at the same time, with capacity hugely constrained, we're taking another 50 Gamechangers before the summer of next year and with 300 MAX10s, which are going to underpin a decade of growth for Ryanair to 300 million passengers.

同時，由於運力嚴重受限，我們將在明年夏天之前再購買 50 架遊戲規則改變者和 300 架 MAX10，這將支撐瑞安航空在十年內將乘客數量增長到 3 億。

And Michael, moving to your results.

邁克爾，請看你的結果。

Ryanair reported a Q1 pat of EUR360 million, down 46%.

瑞安航空報告第一季營收為 3.6 億歐元，下降 46%。

What were the key drivers?

關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

Well, Q1, we've seen strong traffic growth up 10% to EUR55.5 million, despite 20 Boeing aircraft delivery delays.

嗯，第一季度，儘管有 20 架波音飛機交付延誤，我們還是看到交通量強勁成長 10%，達到 5,550 萬歐元。

Q1 average fares were down 15%.

第一季平均票價下降了 15%。

Some of that was the move of the first half of Easter into Q4.

其中一部分是復活節前半段移至第四季。

But also, underlying pricing has been softer than we thought it would be this summer after two years of 20%-plus fare increases.

而且，在經歷了兩年 20% 以上的票價上漲之後，今年夏天的基本定價比我們想像的要軟。

As a result, Q1 schedule revenues were down 6%; ancillary revenues up 10% to EUR1.3 billion; and operating costs were up 11%, reflecting traffic growth of 10% as our fuel hedge savings offset higher staff costs, ATC handling costs, and also the impact of the Boeing delivery delays

結果，第一季計劃收入下降了 6%；輔助收入成長 10%，達到 13 億歐元；營運成本上升 11%，反映出交通量成長 10%，因為我們的燃油對沖節省抵消了更高的員工成本、ATC 處理成本以及波音交貨延誤的影響

And that's Q1.

這就是第一季。

What about Q2?

Q2呢？

How are bookings and fares tracking?

如何追蹤預訂和票價？

Well, as I said, you know, previously, the Q2 was going well and we had very strong traffic numbers in June, where we carried record numbers.

嗯，正如我所說，您知道，之前第二季度進展順利，我們 6 月份的流量非常強勁，創下了創紀錄的數字。

Pricing is weaker and we would indeed expect it to be materially weaker than it was in summer of 2023.

定價疲軟，我們確實預計它會比 2023 年夏季大幅疲軟。

This, of course, very much depends on what happens on close in bookings into August and September, where we don't have a huge amount of visibility at this time.

當然，這在很大程度上取決於 8 月和 9 月的預訂結束時發生的情況，目前我們沒有大量的能見度。

So the market is supply constrained and volumes are strong.

因此，市場供應有限，但成交量強勁。

Why is pricing not stronger?

為什麼定價不強？

It's a good question.

這是一個好問題。

We've been surprised at pricing being weaker.

我們對定價走弱感到驚訝。

You know, the Eurocontrol figures suggest that year-to-date capacity is 5% behind where it was in 2019.

您知道，歐洲空中安全組織 (Eurocontrol) 的數據顯示，今年迄今的運力比 2019 年下降了 5%。

That does represent a 2% or 3% recovery on summer 2023.

這確實代表 2023 年夏季將復甦 2% 或 3%。

We're seeing another strong -- in summer '24, we're seeing very strong Ryanair growth.

我們看到了另一個強勁的成長——24 年夏天，我們看到瑞安航空非常強勁的成長。

We're on track to grow from 183 million passengers last year to 200 million passengers this year.

我們的客運量預計將從去年的 1.83 億增加到今年的 2 億。

We have enjoyed two post-COVID recovery summers where we had double-digit fair growth and capacity and traffic growth.

我們度過了兩個新冠疫情後復甦的夏季，我們的成長、容量和流量均實現了兩位數的成長。

So this summer, strong volumes, weaker-than-expected pricing.

因此，今年夏天，成交量強勁，但定價弱於預期。

We've seen many of our competitors in recent weeks come out and confirm that the pricing market -- the pricing has been softer than they expected, but none of them are delivering the growth that Ryanair is delivering.

最近幾週，我們看到許多競爭對手站出來確認定價市場——定價比他們預期的要軟，但他們都沒有實現瑞安航空所實現的成長。

Moving to fuel, what's your latest update on hedging?

轉向燃料，您對沖的最新進展是什麼？

Well, we're well hedged, 75% of the current financial year hedged at about $79 a barrel, which is locking in about EUR450 million in price savings this year, offsetting a good chunk of the volume that's coming through.

好吧，我們進行了很好的對沖，本財年的 75% 的對沖價格約為每桶 79 美元，這將鎖定今年約 4.5 億歐元的價格節省，抵消了很大一部分的成交量。

And then we look into next year with 45% hedged, or close to 45% hedged already at about $78 a barrel.

然後我們展望明年，45% 的對沖，或接近 45% 的對沖已經在每桶 78 美元左右。

So we're in a good position.

所以我們處於有利的位置。

What about your OPEX currency hedging?

您的 OPEX 貨幣對沖怎麼樣？

Yeah.

是的。

We're about 85% hedged for FY25 at about $1.11. And we're over 40% hedged into FY26 again at a similar price, about $1.11 to the euro.

我們對 25 財年約 85% 的資產進行對沖，價格約為 1.11 美元。我們將超過 40% 的資產再次以類似的價格對沖到 2026 財年，即歐元兌換 1.11 美元。

Looking at your strong balance sheet, what are the key callouts?

來看看您強勁的資產負債表，有哪些關鍵點？

Yeah.

是的。

It's a very strong balance sheet, B+++ rated by both Fitch and S&P.

這是一個非常強勁的資產負債表，被惠譽和標準普爾評為 B+++。

Liquidity very strong with EUR4.5 billion in gross cash at the end of the quarter, and that was after EUR0.5 billion in CapEx and EUR250 million in the share buyback, which kicked off at the back end of May.

流動性非常強勁，本季末現金總額為 45 億歐元，這是在 5 月底開始的 5 億歐元資本支出和 2.5 億歐元股票回購之後。

Importantly, we saw our net cash increase from EUR1.4 billion at year end to EUR1.7 billion at the end of the quarter.

重要的是，我們的淨現金從年末的 14 億歐元增加到本季末的 17 億歐元。

I think we're very unique here in that nearly all of our Boeing 737s, all of our fleet, is on balance sheet, unencumbered.

我認為我們在這裡非常獨特，因為我們幾乎所有的波音 737 飛機、我們所有的機隊都在資產負債表上，沒有任何負擔。

So 566 aircraft on balance sheet.

資產負債表上有 566 架飛機。

And this gives us a massive advantage coupled with our net cash where we're generating net interest income.

這給我們帶來了巨大的優勢，加上我們產生淨利息收入的淨現金。

At a time when our competitors are out there taking on very expensive leases, refinancing at very expensive levels, we're just growing the cost advantage between ourselves and everybody else.

當我們的競爭對手承擔非常昂貴的租賃、以非常昂貴的水平進行再融資時，我們只是在增強我們自己和其他人之間的成本優勢。

What's your FY25 CAPEX guide?

您的 2025 財年資本支出指南是什麼？

It's unchanged at about EUR2.3 billion, but it's heavily subject to the timing of the Boeing 737 deliveries and it's inevitable that some of those will move into FY26 as we take deliveries of delayed aircraft in April, May, and maybe June of 2025.

其金額保持在約23 億歐元不變，但很大程度上取決於波音737 的交付時間，而且隨著我們在2025 年4 月、5 月甚至可能是6 月接收延遲交付的飛機，其中一些不可避免地將進入2026 財年。

How will you fund the Gamechanger and MAX10 CapEx?

您將如何為 Gamechanger 和 MAX10 資本支出提供資金？

Well, the plan at the moment is we'll use our own internal cash resources.

嗯，目前的計劃是我們將使用我們自己的內部現金資源。

As you saw, we had lots of liquidity, EUR4.5 billion at the end of the quarter just ended.

正如您所看到的，我們擁有大量流動資金，在剛結束的季度末為 45 億歐元。

But we are very opportunistic.

但我們非常機會主義。

We look at the lowest form of financing out there.

我們著眼於最低的融資形式。

We have the balance sheet to do bonds, to do sale and lease back, to do any kind of debt financing.

我們有資產負債表來做債券、做售後回租、做任何類型的債務融資。

So it's cash this year.

所以今年都是現金。

It may be something else next year if it's cheaper, but lowest cost would be the decider.

如果明年價格更便宜的話，可能會有所不同，但最低成本將是決定因素。

Moving to shareholder returns.

轉向股東回報。

You commenced a EUR700 million buyback in May.

您於 5 月開始進行 7 億歐元的回購。

How's it going?

怎麼樣了？

Well, as I said this morning, we've done more than 50% of it has now been completed, just over EUR350 million worth of buybacks.

嗯，正如我今天早上所說的，我們已經完成了超過 50% 的回購工作，價值剛剛超過 3.5 億歐元。

What's interesting, with a slight majority of that in ADRs, we've seen a bit more liquidity in the ADR program.

有趣的是，由於 ADR 的流動性略高，我們發現 ADR 計畫的流動性增加。

And the average cost of that, even allowing for the ADR premium, is under EUR20 a share.

即使考慮到 ADR 溢價，其平均成本也低於每股 20 歐元。

So we've benefited a little bit from the recent weakness in the share price.

因此，我們從最近股價的疲軟中受益匪淺。

It has certainly assisted the share buyback program.

它無疑有助於股票回購計劃。

And that is good for the long-term value of the shares for our remaining shareholders.

這有利於我們剩餘股東的股票長期價值。

Can we expect more buybacks?

我們可以期待更多的回購嗎？

Look, as Michael said, we're only halfway through the current EUR700 million buybacks, so let's get that done first over the next few months.

瞧，正如邁克爾所說，我們目前的 7 億歐元回購只完成了一半，所以讓我們在接下來的幾個月裡先完成這項工作。

But after that, the Board have been very clear, to the extent that we're covering our CapEx, our maturing debt, and our other cash commitments in the business, they won't be found wanting.

但在那之後，董事會已經非常明確，只要我們涵蓋我們的資本支出、到期債務以及我們在業務中的其他現金承諾，他們就不會被發現有什麼不足。

And there will be further buybacks or dividends over the course of the next few years.

未來幾年還將有進一步的回購或股利。

When's the next ordinary dividend?

下一次普通股息是什麼時候？

The balance of this year's dividend which is about EUR0.18 a share will be paid we expect in September after the AGM.

我們預計今年的股息餘額約為每股 0.18 歐元，並將於 9 月年度股東大會後支付。

And then beyond that given our policy to distribute about 25% of our prior year PAT, we expect to be distributing about EUR0.45 per share during 2025.

除此之外，考慮到我們分配上一年 PAT 約 25% 的政策，我們預計 2025 年每股分配約 0.45 歐元。

The Board recently approved an ADR ratio change.

董事會最近批准了 ADR 比率變更。

What are the details and why do this?

細節是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Following a review of the sector, we felt that the ADR price was kind of out of sync with norms across the leisure and travel sector.

在對該行業進行審查後，我們認為 ADR 價格與休閒和旅遊業的規範有些不同步。

So we're reducing the current ratio, which is 5 to 1, five ordinary shares for every ADR, to 2 to 1.

因此，我們將流動比率（每份 ADR 對應 5 股普通股）從 5 比 1 降低到 2 比 1。

We'll notify people over the next number of weeks.

我們將在接下來的幾週內通知人們。

No action needs to be taken.

無需採取任何行動。

Why are we doing it?

我們為什麼要這樣做？

Well, this, we believe, will improve the liquidity in the ADR.

嗯，我們相信，這將改善美國存託憑證的流動性。

And that's important as we complete not only the current buyback, but also future buybacks.

這很重要，因為我們不僅完成目前的回購，而且還完成未來的回購。

What's the Group's FY25 outlook?

集團的 2025 財年前景如何？

So just on outlook, traffic as previously guided will be somewhere up to 200 million passengers this year.

因此，僅就前景而言，按照先前的指導，今年的客運量將達到 2 億人次。

This is totally dependent on no further Boeing delivery delays.

這完全取決於波音公司的交付不再延誤。

Q2 volumes, as Michael said, are strong, but pricing is softer, trending towards materially lower on summer of last year.

正如邁克爾所說，第二季度銷量強勁，但價格疲軟，與去年夏季相比呈大幅下降趨勢。

It all totally depends, however, on what happens into August and September close in bookings as to where H1 actually ends up.

然而，這完全取決於 8 月和 9 月的預訂情況，以及 H1 實際的最終結果。

As is always the case, at this time of the year, we've almost zero visibility into the second half of the year, but we should highlight that we won't have the benefit of an Easter in Q4.

像往常一樣，每年的這個時候，我們對下半年的能見度幾乎為零，但我們應該強調，我們不會在第四季度享受復活節的好處。

Costs, as previously guided, are performing in line with expectations.

如同先前的指導，成本表現符合預期。

We expect FY25 costs to be modestly ahead of last year as our significant fuel savings offset a lot of the non-fuel costs, including higher productivity pay coming through and being annualized this year, but also the Boeing delivery delays having an impact.

我們預計 25 財年的成本將略高於去年，因為我們節省的大量燃油抵消了許多非燃油成本，包括今年實現的更高的生產率工資並按年計算，而且波音的交付延誤也產生了影響。

But our fuel, as I said, and our rising interest income helps differentiate and widen the cost gap between us and everybody else.

但正如我所說，我們的燃料以及不斷增加的利息收入有助於區分並擴大我們與其他人之間的成本差距。

Unfortunately, due to the lack of visibility at this time of year, it's way too early to provide meaningful full-year profit after tax guidance.

不幸的是，由於每年這個時候缺乏可見性，現在提供有意義的全年稅後利潤指引還為時過早。

We do hope to be able to revisit this again when we come out with our H1 numbers in November.

我們確實希望在 11 月公佈 H1 數據時能夠再次審視這個問題。

But when we look beyond this year, we've got a very strong order book, not only the 50 Gamechangers left, but also the 300 MAX 10s.

但當我們展望今年之後，我們的訂單量非常強勁，不僅剩下 50 台 Gamechangers，還有 300 MAX 10。

And we believe that this will underpin a decade of growth to 300 million passengers.

我們相信，這將支撐十年內乘客數量增加至 3 億人。

When you combine that with our rock solid balance sheet, our industry leading low costs, I think we're well placed to deliver very strong traffic and fleet growth, while at the same time, returning funds to our shareholders.

當你將其與我們堅如磐石的資產負債表和行業領先的低成本結合起來時，我認為我們完全有能力實現非常強勁的客流量和機隊增長，同時將資金返還給我們的股東。