Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the Ryanair Holdings plc FY '24 Earnings Release. My name is Maxine and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to Michael O'Leary, Group CEO of Ryanair Holdings to begin. Michael, please go ahead when you are ready.

大家好，歡迎來到 Ryanair Holdings plc 24 財年收益發布。我叫瑪克辛，今天我將協調通話。 （操作員指示）我現在將請瑞安航空控股集團首席執行官邁克爾·奧利裡 (Michael O'Leary) 開始。邁克爾，準備好後請繼續。

Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Ryanair Full Year Results Call. I'm joined by all the members of the team. I'm in New York, various services as the team are spread across Ireland, the U.K., the Europe. The only member who's in (inaudible) our CFO. So she's in listen-only mode and won't be able to contribute to the call today.

好的。早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加瑞安航空全年業績電話會議。團隊的所有成員都加入了我的行列。我在紐約，團隊的各種服務遍及愛爾蘭、英國和歐洲。我們財務長（聽不清楚）中唯一的成員。因此她處於只聽模式，無法參與今天的通話。

You have seen this morning, we reported full year profit of 34% to EUR 1.92 billion as traffic grew last year by 9% to EUR 184 million, despite Boeing delivery delays, which have hampered our traffic growth. And we've also announced a timely EUR 700 million share buyback. Over the full year, I said the highlights that the traffic grew 9% to 184 million passengers. Despite that, the fuel bill also jumped 32% to up EUR 1.25 billion to just over EUR 5 billion. We took delivery of -- well, we have 146x Gamechangers in the fleet at the end of March. This summer, we're still growing strongly. We're opening 5 new bases and over 200 new routes for summer '24.

今天早上您已經看到，我們報告全年利潤增長 34%，達到 19.2 億歐元，去年客流量增長 9%，達到 1.84 億歐元，儘管波音的交付延誤阻礙了我們客流量的增長。我們也宣布及時回購 7 億歐元的股票。全年來看，我強調的重點是客運量增加了 9%，達到 1.84 億人次。儘管如此，燃油費用也上漲了 32%，達到 12.5 億歐元，略高於 50 億歐元。我們在 3 月底接收了——好吧，我們的機隊中有 146 架遊戲規則改變者。今年夏天，我們仍然強勁成長。我們將在 2024 年夏季開設 5 個新基地和 200 多條新航線。

We've already hedged 70% of our FY '25 fuel at about $79 a barrel. So we've locked in fuel savings of about EUR 450 million for the next year. And in the 2024, we're paying our maiden interim dividend of EUR 400 million, EUR 200 million paid in February and EUR 200 million in September. And we continue to look forward to our Boeing MAX-10 order of 300 aircraft for deliveries of which starting early spring 2027.

我們已經對 25 財年 70% 的燃料進行了對沖，價格約為每桶 79 美元。因此，我們已鎖定明年可節省約 4.5 億歐元的燃油。到 2024 年，我們將首次支付 4 億歐元中期股息，其中 2 億歐元於 2 月支付，2 億歐元於 9 月支付。我們繼續期待 300 架波音 MAX-10 飛機訂單，並於 2027 年初春開始交付。

We continue to face delivery challenges with Boeing. As I said, we have 146 Gamechangers at the end of March. We hope to increase this to 158 by the end of July. That will be 23 aircraft short of our contracted Boeing deliveries for summer 2024. However, we'll continue to work closely with Boeing. Dave Calhoun, Brian West and Stephanie Pope in Seattle. We have seen recently an improvement in the quality of the fuselage is being delivered from Wichita to Seattle and also an improvement in the quality of the final -- out of final deliveries we're getting in Seattle. What we now need is a plan to accelerate our 737 deliveries.

我們持續面臨波音的交付挑戰。正如我所說，截至 3 月底，我們有 146 名遊戲規則改變者。我們希望在 7 月底將其增加到 158 個。這將比我們 2024 年夏季合約交付的波音飛機數量少 23 架。戴夫·卡爾霍恩、布萊恩·韋斯特和史蒂芬妮·波普在西雅圖。最近，我們看到從威奇托到西雅圖交付的機身品質有所提高，最終在西雅圖交付的飛機的品質也有所提高。我們現在需要的是加速 737 交付的計劃。

There remains a risk that Boeing deliveries could slip further, although we are becoming increasingly optimistic that the 9 extra aircraft we get through June and July will be delivered on time, at least we'll be able to use those through August and September. However, these delays mean that more traffic growth will occur the lower yield in H2 than we had originally planned. And as a result, we've cut back our full year traffic forecast this year from an original 205 million passengers to a range of between 198 million and 200 million.

波音交付量仍有進一步下滑的風險，儘管我們越來越樂觀地認為 6 月和 7 月額外獲得的 9 架飛機將按時交付，至少我們能夠在 8 月和 9 月之前使用這些飛機。然而，這些延誤意味著下半年的產量將比我們最初計劃的要低，但流量將會出現更多成長。因此，我們將今年全年的客運量預測從最初的 2.05 億人次下調至 1.98 億至 2 億人次。

Now the demand in Europe remained strong for summer 2024, it's positive. And despite these Boeing delivery delays, we'll still operate our largest ever summer schedule with over 200 new routes and 5 new bases. We expect capacity in Europe to be constrained as consolidation process continues airlines, particularly in Europe ground, a significant number of A320 aircraft for P&W with the engine repairs and both OEMs struggle to recover their delivery backlogs.

現在歐洲的需求在 2024 年夏季仍然強勁，這是積極的。儘管波音公司的交付出現延誤，我們仍將運營有史以來規模最大的夏季航班計劃，包括 200 多條新航線和 5 個新基地。我們預計歐洲的運力將受到限制，因為航空公司的整合過程仍在繼續，特別是在歐洲地面，P&W 的大量 A320 飛機需要進行發動機維修，而且兩家 OEM 都在努力恢復其交付積壓。

As a result, however, we're a little bit surprised that the pricing is soft. We had thought with these capacity constraints, right in this summer would ride between -- I mean, somewhere between 5% and 10%. However, we had an early Easter at the end of March into early April. Pricing through the back end of April, May and into June is a little bit weaker than we had expected. In fact, it will be slightly down on Q1 last year.

然而，我們對定價偏軟感到有點驚訝。我們曾認為，由於這些產能限制，今年夏天的產能利用率將介於 5% 到 10% 之間。然而，我們在三月底到四月初有一個提前的復活節。 4 月底、5 月和 6 月的定價比我們預期的要弱一些。事實上，比去年第一季略有下降。

We still see pricing being up in the peak summer months of July, August and September. But at this stage, we think that to be 0% to 5% and at this point in time, not 5% to 10%. Now we still have less than 50% of the bookings made for that July, August, September quarter. So it could go either way. Pricing could firm as we go into the summer peak or it might weaken further. And if it weakens further, it weakens, and we will continue to be load factor active, price passive. It just makes people and families traveling in Europe this year, we get better deals and better pricing on Ryanair.

我們仍然認為七月、八月和九月夏季高峰期的價格會上漲。但現階段，我們認為是 0% 到 5%，而不是 5% 到 10%。現在我們的 7 月、8 月和 9 月季度的預訂量仍然不到 50%。所以這兩種情況都可能發生。隨著夏季高峰的到來，價格可能會堅挺，也可能會進一步走弱。如果進一步走弱，那就走弱，我們將繼續採取載客率主動、價格被動的態度。這使得今年在歐洲旅行的人們和家庭，我們在瑞安航空上獲得了更好的優惠和更優惠的價格。

We expect European airline consolidation to continue. And we do in principle, support that consolidation process. We think Lufthansa should be allowed to acquire ITA. IAG should be allowed to acquire Air Europa, as long as there's appropriate competition remedies, i.e., stock handovers at congested airports like Milan Linate and Madrid.

我們預計歐洲航空公司整合將持續。原則上我們確實支持這一整合過程。我們認為應該允許漢莎航空收購 ITA。只要有適當的競爭補救措施，即在米蘭利納特和馬德里等擁擠的機場進行庫存交接，就應該允許 IAG 收購歐洲航空公司。

Looking forward over the last 12 months, as I said traffic grew 9% to EUR 184 million. Average fares rose 21%, but that was badly needed because our fuel bill rose by 35%. Overall, total revenues jumped 25% to EUR 13.5 billion. Operating costs were up 24% to EUR 12 billion, primarily due to a 32% increase in fuel cost. More importantly, however, the cost gap between Ryanair and all of our other EU competitors has widened significantly and we have seen that with much higher unit cost rises from competitors who announced results over the last 2 weeks. As I said, our FY '25 fuel requirements are over 70% hedge at just under $80 a barrel. And we've also locked with the first 10% around FY '26 fuel requirements at about $79 a barrel.

展望過去 12 個月，正如我所說，流量成長了 9%，達到 1.84 億歐元。平均票價上漲了 21%，但這是迫切需要的，因為我們的燃油費用上漲了 35%。整體而言，總收入躍升 25%，達到 135 億歐元。營運成本成長 24%，達到 120 億歐元，主要是因為燃料成本成長 32%。然而，更重要的是，瑞安航空與我們所有其他歐盟競爭對手之間的成本差距已顯著擴大，我們看到，過去兩周公佈業績的競爭對手的單位成本上漲了很多。正如我所說，我們 25 財年的燃料需求超過 70%，對沖價格略低於每桶 80 美元。我們也將 26 財年燃料需求的前 10% 鎖定在每桶 79 美元左右。

End of year balance sheet was in good shape. Net cash was just over EUR 1.3 billion. That was somewhat boosted by Boeing delivery delays but that's given us the opportunity, as we've previously communicated to launch a share buyback scheme. The Board has approved a share buyback of EUR 700 million, which will take place over the next 6 months.

年末資產負債表狀況良好。淨現金略高於 13 億歐元。這在一定程度上受到了波音交付延遲的推動，但這給了我們機會，因為我們之前已經溝通過啟動股票回購計畫。董事會已批准在未來 6 個月內進行 7 億歐元的股票回購。

Key to all of this is obviously in our outlook. Let's see what things we know. We expect our traffic to grow by about 8%. So somewhere between the finisher -- somewhere between 198 million and 200 million passengers. That is Boeing delivery delays, but there's less uncertainty now that we have only 9 more aircraft to take in June and July. Most advanced global competitors continues to widen. We do expect unit cost to rise modestly, as ex-fuel costs such as particularly pay and productivity allowances, higher handling and ATC fees and the impact of the Gamechanger delivery delays on crewing ratios and fixed cost is substantially offset by our fuel hedge savings and our rising interest income.

所有這一切的關鍵顯然在於我們的前景。讓我們看看我們知道哪些事情。我們預計我們的流量將成長約 8%。因此，介於最終者之間——1.98 億至 2 億乘客之間。那是波音的交付延遲，但現在的不確定性較小，因為我們在 6 月和 7 月只剩下 9 架飛機可供接收。最先進的全球競爭對手的範圍不斷擴大。我們確實預計單位成本將小幅上升，因為除燃料成本外，例如特別是工資和生產力津貼、更高的裝卸費和空中交通管制費，以及遊戲規則改變者交付延遲對船員比例和固定成本的影響，都被我們的燃料對沖節省和固定成本大幅抵銷。

While EU short-haul capacity is constrained, summer '24 demand is positive, with good trending slightly ahead of last year. Recent pricing is softer than we expected, can't really explain why other than there's a little consumer resistance out there and most airlines are engaged in price promotion through April, May and June. And if they are, then we will lead the market with price promotions. Q1 is requiring more price domination than last year. Fares and profits in Q1 will be behind where they were will be lower than they were in Q1 last year, particularly as half of Easter moved into March into Q4. And if you remember, we had a bumper Q4 results in today's annual results.

雖然歐盟短程運力受到限制，但 24 年夏季需求積極，趨勢良好，略高於去年。最近的定價比我們預期的要軟，無法真正解釋為什麼除了消費者有一點抵制之外，而且大多數航空公司都在四月、五月和六月進行價格促銷。如果是的話，那麼我們將透過價格促銷來引領市場。第一季比去年需要更多的價格主導。第一季的票價和利潤將低於去年第一季的水平，特別是隨著復活節的一半進入三月進入第四季。如果你還記得的話，在今天的年度業績中，我們第四季的業績非常出色。

Our visibility is limited, our outcome as all of this company will be heavily dependent on closing peak summer 2024 pricing, and we remain cautiously optimistic that peak summer '24 fares would be flat to modestly ahead of last summer. Q4 FY '25 will not benefit from an early Easter as the date in FY '24. However, it's too early to provide the sense of accurate full year guidance and the final outcome of FY '25 will be heavily dependent on avoiding adverse events during the year such as adverse developments in Ukraine, the Middle East, a repeat of last year's extensive ATC disruptions are further Boeing delivery delays.

我們的能見度有限，我們的結果將在很大程度上取決於 2024 年夏季高峰期的收盤價格，我們仍然謹慎樂觀地認為 24 年夏季高峰期票價將與去年夏季持平或略有上漲。 25 財年第 4 季將不會像 24 財年那樣受益於提早復活節。然而，現在提供準確的全年指導還為時過早，25 財年的最終結果將在很大程度上取決於避免年內發生不利事件，例如烏克蘭和中東的不利事態發展，重複去年的廣泛情況。空中交通管制中斷進一步導致波音交車延誤。

And with that, I'm going to hand over to our CFO, Neil Sorahan to take us through some points and teams on the MD&A, Neil?

接下來，我將把任務交給我們的財務長尼爾·索拉漢 (Neil Sorahan)，他將帶領我們了解 MD&A 的一些要點和團隊，尼爾？

Okay. Thank you, Michael. You covered a lot there, but I'll focus in a little bit more on the balance sheet, BBB+ rated balance sheet, exceptionally strong. And as Michael said, we finished with well over $4 billion in gross cash and just under $1.4 billion net cash at the end of the year. This has given the board the confidence having restored pay, having paid down significant debt over the past couple of years and funded large CapEx and now launched the buyback, the EUR 700 million buyback that will formally launch tomorrow morning and it will run for about a 6-month period broadly split between the non-EU and the EU shareholdings.

好的。謝謝你，麥可。您在那裡討論了很多內容，但我將更多地關注資產負債表，BBB+ 評級的資產負債表，非常強勁。正如麥可所說，到年底我們的現金總額遠超過 40 億美元，淨現金略低於 14 億美元。這讓董事會充滿信心，恢復了薪酬，償還了過去幾年的巨額債務，並為大規模資本支出提供了資金，現在啟動了回購，7億歐元的回購將於明天早上正式啟動，回購期限約為非歐盟和歐盟持股大致分為 6 個月期間。

And so delivering on the capital allocation policy on top of the dividend program that was rolled out last November. The cost base in good shape, we came in exactly where we said we were on a per passenger basis last year. That gap between ourselves and everybody else widening and very pleased that thanks to the hedging we have will more or less offset the nonfuel price inflation with the fuel savings over the course of the next year. And then, of course, happier with where we are with Boeing at the moment and looking forward to getting the balance of the Gamechangers, the first of the MAX-10s over the next couple of years.

因此，除了去年 11 月推出的股利計畫外，還實施了資本配置政策。成本基礎狀況良好，我們的表現與去年所說的每位乘客計算的情況完全一致。我們和其他人之間的差距正在擴大，我們非常高興的是，由於對沖，我們將在明年用節省的燃料或多或少地抵消非燃料價格通膨。當然，我們對波音目前的狀況感到滿意，並期待在未來幾年內實現遊戲規則改變者（Gamechangers）的平衡，這是 MAX-10 中的第一架。

And then Mike, (inaudible) the deal deck, you might give us a flavor of what you're seeing in terms of new route growth in market share across some of the key markets in Europe this summer?

然後，麥克（聽不清楚）交易平台，您可以向我們介紹一下今年夏天歐洲一些主要市場的新航線市場份額增長情況嗎？

Yes. I think the -- I mean we're going to grow by about 9% this summer versus last summer. That's up almost 37% from summer '19, just slightly over (inaudible) routes. But the big call-outs, I suppose, are like Spain, we have an extra 11 aircraft, and they're actually still growing strongly. 2 new bases there of the 5 new bases in Italy and Reggio Calabria and Trieste. Poland, Central Eastern Europe, including Albania, growing strongly and Morocco as well, growing strongly with new base there in Tangier and also, we are operating domestic there, albeit on a very small scale, but they're going -- they're going well at the moment.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，今年夏天我們的成長率將比去年夏天成長約 9%。與 19 年夏季相比，成長了近 37%，僅略高於（聽不清楚）航線。但我想，像西班牙一樣，我們多了 11 架飛機，而且實際上仍在強勁成長。義大利的 5 個新基地以及雷焦卡拉布里亞和的里雅斯特有 2 個新基地。波蘭、中東歐，包括阿爾巴尼亞，成長強勁，摩洛哥也強勁成長，在丹吉爾建立了新基地，而且我們在那裡開展國內業務，儘管規模很小，但他們正在——他們正在目前進展順利。

So capacity is growing where we can -- where we -- we are maintaining our pressure on costs there. And those airports have reward us with lower costs or get into capacity. If you look at that's recently in Bordeaux, where we had to -- we closed the base because the costs are going to rise. They're substantially over what we had contracted for. You can see in Venice, where the municipal tax has grown there. Same in Portugal and also here in Dublin, where we're going to have -- where we've got the double whammy of airport cost growing by up to 46% over the next 5 to 6 years.

因此，在我們能夠維持成本壓力的地方，產能正在成長。這些機場以較低的成本或提高了運力來獎勵我們。如果你看看最近在波爾多的情況，我們不得不關閉基地，因為成本將會上升。它們大大超出了我們的合約金額。你可以在威尼斯看到，那裡的市政稅正在成長。葡萄牙和都柏林也是如此，我們將在那裡遭受機場成本在未來 5 到 6 年內增長高達 46% 的雙重打擊。

We've taken out all the Gamechangers out of there, and we've got the capacity cap in Dublin, which we'll probably see airfares spiral this winter because we'll be unable to put an extra capacity for key events such as Christmas, the new -- the school break and the extras generally. But overall, the message is those airports that reward growth with lower costs, get more Ryanair capacity and those that don't get it. Thanks.

我們已經清除了所有的遊戲規則改變者，並且我們在都柏林設置了運力上限，今年冬天我們可能會看到機票價格螺旋式上升，因為我們將無法為聖誕節等關鍵活動提供額外的運力，新的——學校假期和額外的活動。但總體而言，傳達的訊息是那些以較低成本獎勵成長、獲得更多瑞安航空運力的機場，以及那些沒有獲得更多運力的機場。謝謝。

Thanks Eddie. Just to make sure everyone where we announced the closure of the Bordeaux base from November. So we are still at the Bordeaux and will be key to summer, but it closes in November and already, we've had a number of other airports, including French airports onto the new team looking to secure those aircraft, but they've already been allocated by this winter.

謝謝艾迪。只是為了向大家保證，我們宣布從 11 月起關閉波爾多基地。因此，我們仍在波爾多機場，這將是夏季的關鍵，但它將於 11 月關閉，我們已經有許多其他機場，包括法國機場，加入了尋求確保這些飛機安全的新團隊，但他們已經已於今年冬天分配。

Okay. Maxine, with that, please, can you open up for Q&A?

好的。瑪克辛，請問您可以開始問答嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Harry Gowers from JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harry Gowers。

Two questions, if I can. First one, just on those peak summer fares. Maybe you could go through what you think has actually changed compared to before when the fares have been talked about 5% to 10% higher. Have you actually seen any large weakening in demand over the past month or maybe the original message was say a little bit too high.

有兩個問題，如果可以的話。第一個是夏季高峰票價。也許您可以了解您認為與之前相比，票價上漲了 5% 至 10% 時實際發生的變化。您是否確實看到過去一個月需求大幅減弱，或者最初的消息可能有點過高。

And then secondly, just on CapEx, probably one for Neil. Obviously, there's an impact on timing from the Boeing delivery delays and maybe EUR 400 million to EUR 500 million might have shifted into March 2025. I mean it appears like the CapEx guide is maybe EUR 500 million higher beyond just those delivery delays into March 2025. So maybe you could just detail out the new CapEx guidance. And has there been a noticeable increase in the nondelivery related CapEx spend?

其次，就資本支出而言，可能是尼爾的一個。顯然，波音交付延遲對時間安排產生了影響，也許4 億至5 億歐元可能已經轉移到2025 年3 月。 。非交付相關的資本支出是否顯著增加？

Okay. I will take the fares and Neil, you do the CapEx. So let me give you what we think is happening on fares. A couple of issues. Firstly, when we come off 2 summers where we've had -- cumulatively 2 summers, both '22 and '23 of post-COVID recovery, fares were up plus 20% for the last 2 summers. We expected this summer would be marginally softer. Originally, we thought it could be up maybe 5%, 10%, it would be some single digit, but we wouldn't have a third year of 20% fare increases.

好的。我負責票價，尼爾負責資本支出。讓我告訴您我們對票價的看法。有幾個問題。首先，當我們經歷了兩個夏天——累積兩個夏天，即疫情後復甦的 22 年和 23 年，票價在過去 2 個夏天上漲了 20%。我們預計今年夏天的情況會稍微疲軟。最初，我們認為可能會上漲 5%、10%，可能是個位數，但我們不會第三年加價 20%。

I think we also expected that with the earlier Easter, the back end of April would be weaker and would weak with there's a kind of a longer run from the Easter through to the summer holidays. But I think it's fair to say we do think that fares would be stronger towards the summer, May, June, July, August, particularly with capacity constraints. And most notably, the A320 groundings, which really bite once the summer schedule take into place in April.

我認為我們也預計，隨著復活節的提前，四月末的價格將會較弱，並且由於從復活節到暑假的時間較長，因此會較弱。但我認為可以公平地說，我們確實認為夏季、五月、六月、七月、八月的票價會更高，特別是在運力有限的情況下。最值得注意的是，A320 停飛，一旦 4 月夏季航班計劃開始實施，這確實會帶來影響。

One of our competitors, for example, they are a lot smaller wiz, announced a decline in traffic in April because of our -- in April because of these -- the A320 ground. So the capacity constraint is real. And I think when you look to analyze what's happening in the short truck, the honest answer is we're not sure. We think it's a combination of 2 things. One, the dispute with the OTAs, where a lot of the OTA prior took us off sale in December and January. We're gradually putting some of the OTAs doing approved OTA distribution deals -- but as a hit to that, we are seeing some hit to our kind of what we would say, the leisure routes, U.K., Spain, U.K., Germany, Spain, Scandinavia, Spain. A lot of those are coming back online using the benefit of our approved OTAs, which ensure that the consumers are not being overcharged.

例如，我們的一個競爭對手，他們規模要小得多，宣布 4 月份的客流量下降，因為我們——4 月份就是因為這些——A320 地面。所以容量限制是真實存在的。我認為，當您分析短卡車中發生的情況時，誠實的答案是我們不確定。我們認為這是兩件事的結合。一是與 OTA 的糾紛，許多 OTA 之前都讓我們在 12 月和 1 月停止銷售。我們正在逐步讓一些 OTA 進行經批准的 OTA 分銷交易，但作為打擊，我們看到我們所說的休閒路線受到了一些打擊，英國、西班牙、英國、德國、西班牙，斯堪的納維亞半島，西班牙。其中許多人利用我們批准的 OTA 的優勢重新上線，這確保了消費者不會被多收費。

And we think that was an award that is worth fighting and it's clearly one that we're winning on behalf of the consumer at the moment. So that has probably had some small impact. We think overall, however, it's just a little bit softer out there than we expected. There's a degree that appears to be some degree of consumer resistance. There may be some kind of recessionary feel out there. There's not a lot of consumer spending our confidence across Europe and consumer spending, and maybe that's reflected in what we would call shoulder period bookings and shoulder period bookings and fares.

我們認為這是一個值得爭取的獎項，而且顯然我們目前正在代表消費者贏得這個獎項。所以這可能產生了一些小小的影響。然而，我們認為總體而言，情況比我們預期的要溫和一些。在某種程度上，消費者似乎存在一定程度的抵制。那裡可能有某種衰退的感覺。我們對整個歐洲和消費者支出的信心並不高，這可能反映在我們所謂的平期預訂以及平期預訂和票價中。

Now when we engage in price stimulation as we have done over the last 4 or 5 weeks, we see strong volumes. So there's strong volumes out there. And to me, that the key theme, price is going to be softer this summer, it's going to be softer. But when we stimulate, we see very strong volume growth. And we've seen that across the piece. Almost all of the airlines in the short-haul space in Europe have been engaging in Seattle.

現在，當我們像過去四、五週那樣進行價格刺激時，我們看到了強勁的交易量。因此，那裡的交易量很大。對我來說，關鍵主題是今年夏天價格將會更加疲軟，將會更加疲軟。但當我們進行刺激時，我們會看到非常強勁的銷售成長。我們已經在整個作品中看到了這一點。歐洲幾乎所有短程航空公司都已在西雅圖開展業務。

Now maybe we're the authors of that, but we're going to be aggressive on pricing. And if consumers in their families got by slightly lower fares or less higher fares than we originally predicted this summer, then that's what it's going to be, and we will lead that trend. We could do so with a very strong base with unit cost largely nails down, unit costs rising at a far slower rate than it is among any of our competitors in Europe. And therefore, we do so from a very strong position as straight.

現在也許我們是該方案的作者，但我們將在定價方面採取激進的態度。如果消費者家庭中的票價比我們今年夏天最初預測的略低或略高，那麼情況就會如此，我們將引領這一趨勢。我們可以憑藉非常強大的基礎來做到這一點，單位成本在很大程度上是固定的，單位成本的成長速度比我們在歐洲的任何競爭對手都要慢得多。因此，我們是從一個非常有利的位置來做這件事的。

So as always, there's a bit of price softness out there this summer. And I would describe it as no more the price softness. We will accept that as our fate and we will be strong on volumes and a little bit softer than we originally thought on pricing. I don't think that detracts from the medium-term outlook, which, to my mind, is still capacity constraints across Europe for the next 2, 3 summers and average airfares will rise over that period of time, that is no unforeseen events because I can see no outcome other than continuing manufacturing delivery delays continuing A320 groundings and hopefully, the pay out of the consolidation story in Europe.

像往常一樣，今年夏天價格有些疲軟。我將其描述為不再是價格疲軟。我們將接受這是我們的命運，我們將在銷售方面表現強勁，但在定價方面比我們最初想像的要軟一些。我認為這不會影響中期前景，在我看來，歐洲未來兩三個夏天的運力仍然受到限制，平均機票價格將在這段時間內上漲，這並不是不可預見的事件，因為除了製造交付延遲、A320 繼續停飛以及歐洲整合故事的回報之外，我看不到其他結果。

So short term, a little softer than we thought. It's that what it's going to be, then that's what it's going to be, and we will be aggressive and lead that process. Over the medium term, I think it's inevitably the next 2 or 3 summers in Europe, pricing with constrained capacity will be modestly upward. Neil, CapEx please?

所以短期來看，比我們想像的軟一點。事情就是這樣，然後就是這樣，我們將積極進取並領導這個過程。從中期來看，我認為歐洲未來兩三個夏天不可避免地會在運力有限的情況下，價格將適度上漲。尼爾，資本支出好嗎？

Yes, EUR 2.3 billion CapEx for this year. A good chunk of that are predelivery payments and delivery payments that have moved forward into FY '25. On top of that, maintenance CapEx, but we've also got some additional spare engines, some hanger construction, SIM centers, construction underway. And then we start the first of the MAX-10 PDPs. Big step down next year, where we're primarily just looking at maintenance CapEx will dip down to just over a EUR 1 billion, maybe EUR 1.1 billion next year. And then we've kind of like CapEx for a year or so before it starts to tap up again with the predelivery payments on the MAX-10 and the delivery payments on the MAX-10 in 2026 into 2027.

是的，今年的資本支出為 23 億歐元。其中很大一部分是預交付付款和已轉移到 25 財年的交付付款。最重要的是，維護資本支出，但我們還有一些額外的備用引擎、一些吊架建設、SIM 中心，正在進行建設。然後我們啟動第一個 MAX-10 PDP。明年將大幅下降，我們主要關注的是維護資本支出將降至略高於 10 億歐元，明年可能為 11 億歐元。然後，我們對資本支出進行了一年左右的觀察，然後開始再次利用 MAX-10 的預交付付款和 2026 年至 2027 年 MAX-10 的交付付款。

The next question comes from Dudley Shanley from Goodbody.

下一個問題來自 Goodbody 的 Dudley Shanley。

Two questions for me. And Michael, you touched on both issues a minute ago. First of all, if you think of the airline consolidation in Europe, and I think before you've mentioned that ultimately it comes down to 4 players, which is the 3 flags and Ryanair. It seems as though the European Commission is getting a bit stricter in terms of getting these deals true. So do you still think that's the end game for consolidation?

有兩個問題問我。邁克爾，你一分鐘前談到了這兩個問題。首先，如果你想到歐洲的航空公司整合，我想你之前提到過，最終歸結為 4 個參與者，即 3 flag 和瑞安航空。歐盟委員會在落實這些交易方面似乎變得更加嚴格。那麼您仍然認為這就是整合的結局嗎？

And then secondly, on capacity constraint, which has been an issue we've talked about a few times. Is it still the case? Do you think this goes on for a couple of years? I know as you mentioned that obviously the deliveries from Boeing. The quality is improving. The speed doesn't seem to be improving, and the GTF issue is still in the background. So will it still be there for 2 to 3 years?

其次，關於容量限制，這是我們已經討論過幾次的問題。現在還是這樣嗎？你認為這種情況會持續幾年嗎？我知道正如您所提到的，顯然是波音公司的交付。品質正在提高。速度似乎沒有提高，GTF 問題仍然存在。那麼它還會存在2到3年嗎？

Two good points, Dudley. Firstly, on consolidation and then I'll ask Eddie, Juliusz also to comment on that. I mean I think the EU commission is, as usual, getting it wrong. Consolidation does need to take place. What happens is it looks that was not allowed to buy Alitalia, what happens to Alitalia. Now the goes bust, which is politically on attractive in Italy. The Italian taxpayer keeps massively funding on Alitalia, keep it like with the legal state aid.

達德利，有兩個好點。首先，關於整合，然後我會請艾迪、朱利葉斯也對此發表評論。我的意思是，我認為歐盟委員會像往常一樣犯了錯誤。確實需要進行整合。發生的情況是，看起來不允許購買義大利航空，義大利航空會發生什麼事。現在破產了，這在義大利具有政治吸引力。義大利納稅人繼續向義大利航空公司提供大量資金，就像合法的國家援助一樣。

Europe does need to accept that there has to be consolidation. What happens to Air Europa, if IAG are not allowed to buy them. And I think, again, it goes both. We've seen that in the state where JetBlue was not allowed to buy Spirit and Spirit is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. So Europe needs to have a better kind of strategic focus on what it wants for their airline. We need low-fare air travel across Europe. If you're going to have integration, you're going to have freedom of movement, particularly from the peripheral states to the center. But the center also needs to be -- not some kind of rational strategy here.

歐洲確實需要接受必須整合的事實。如果 IAG 不被允許購買歐洲航空公司，那麼他們會怎麼樣？我再次認為兩者都是如此。我們已經看到，在捷藍航空不被允許收購精神航空的州，精神航空已經在破產的邊緣搖搖欲墜。因此，歐洲需要更好地關注其航空公司的戰略重點。我們需要穿越歐洲的低價航空旅行。如果你要實現一體化，你就會有行動自由，特別是從外圍國家到中心國家。但這個中心也需要──而不是某種理性的策略。

We think they should be encouraging that consolidation, but then it should be encouraged with appropriate soft remedies. The way to fix this, if you're concerned about consolidation to monopoly in place like Malpensa or in Madrid, (inaudible) diverse lot to competitors who can maintain and sustain those operations, don't do it, they did in Lisbon, which was to give slots from TAP to easyJet, and easyJet has barely used half of those slots during the winter period, which is where Ryanair would have used up all of those slots during the winter period.

我們認為他們應該鼓勵這種整合，但隨後應該透過適當的軟補救措施來鼓勵這種整合。解決這個問題的方法是，如果你擔心馬爾彭薩或馬德里這樣的地方的壟斷，（聽不清楚）對能夠維持和維持這些業務的競爭對手來說是多種多樣的，那就不要這樣做，他們在里斯本做了，並計劃將 TAP 的時刻提供給易捷航空，而易捷航空在冬季期間幾乎只使用了這些時刻的一半，而瑞安航空在冬季期間將用完所有這些時刻。

So I think the EU Commission needs to have a longer-term vision for air travel in Europe, the European -- the single market widely depends on low-cost air travel. And the only way that's going to be sustained is with, I think, some -- a smaller number of larger, more sustainable carriers. In my personal view, it's going to be 4 large airline groups. I don't see any of the others surviving as a large independent carriers either because they can't compete with the legacies or with the hubs and with the connecting traffic or they can't compete with Ryanair on the low-cost point-to-point pricing side.

因此，我認為歐盟委員會需要對歐洲航空旅行有更長遠的願景，歐洲單一市場廣泛依賴低成本航空旅行。我認為，維持這種狀態的唯一方法是與一些規模較小、規模更大、更永續的航空公司合作。在我個人看來，將會是四大航空集團。我不認為其他任何航空公司能夠作為大型獨立航空公司生存下來，要么是因為它們無法與傳統航空公司、樞紐機場和中轉航班競爭，要么無法在低成本點對點服務上與瑞安航空競爭。 。

Capacity constraint, I can't see any way it doesn't continue for the next couple of years. There are 3 key elements here: One, there's been a huge shakeout of capacity during COVID, that capacity is not coming back; two, the manufacturers are hugely challenged for the next 5 years from 2024 out to 2030, just delivering on their existing commitment. And there's a huge number of unfulfilled orders still out there from Turkish, Middle Eastern carriers, Asian and Chinese carriers. And with the constraints in the supply chain, there's no way that those -- I think that they will be able to meet their own step-up in monthly in manufacturing. There are going to be challenged for the next 3, 4, 5 years.

容量限制，我看不出它在未來幾年不會持續下去。以下有 3 個關鍵要素：一是新冠疫情期間產能發生了巨大的震盪，而且產能不會恢復；第二，從 2024 年到 2030 年的未來 5 年，製造商在兌現現有承諾方面面臨巨大挑戰。土耳其、中東航空公司、亞洲和中國航空公司仍有大量未履行的訂單。由於供應鏈的限制，我認為他們不可能滿足每月製造量的成長。未來3年、4年、5年都會面臨挑戰。

And then you add to that, the GTF issues on the Pratt & Whitney engines. We've seen optimistic stuff. I mean 20% of the fleet is going to be grounded. So I think it's going to be for the next 2, 3 summers which is not going to be a quick fix. The original forecast of 300, 350 days for the engine repairs have already moved out towards 450, 500 days. There's huge challenges on the engine maintenance side, supply chains and on engine shop, and there's no way that, that being accelerated.

然後再補充一下普惠引擎上的 GTF 問題。我們看到了樂觀的事。我的意思是 20% 的機隊將被停飛。所以我認為這將是接下來的兩三個夏天，這不會是一個快速解決方案。最初預計的引擎維修時間為 300、350 天，現已提前至 450、500 天。引擎維護方面、供應鏈和引擎車間都面臨巨大的挑戰，而且不可能加速。

So I think it is inevitable that for the next 3 or -- 2 or 3 summers at least '25 -- '24, '25, '26, the passenger cost Europe is going to be meaningfully constrained. Also remember, in Ryanair's case, this year, we're only going to have 30 of our 59 -- 40 of our -- sorry, 40 of our 59 aircraft deliveries. We hope to pick that up next year when we will add. We take another 29 aircraft, we hope, and the backlog of the 20 were short issue we might have 59 aircraft for summer 2025. Then we have essentially no growth for summer '26 and no growth for summer '27. So we will be a key player in that capacity constraint for the next 2 or 3 summers as well.

因此，我認為，在接下來的 3 個或 2 個或 3 個夏天，至少是 25 年、24 年、25 年、26 年，歐洲的客運成本將不可避免地受到顯著限制。還要記住，就瑞安航空而言，今年我們只會交付 59 架飛機中的 30 架——抱歉，我們的 59 架飛機中的 40 架。我們希望明年添加時能夠繼續使用它。我們希望再買 29 架飛機，這 20 架飛機的積壓是短期問題，我們可能會在 2025 年夏季擁有 59 架飛機。因此，在接下來的兩三個夏天，我們也將成為解決產能限制的關鍵角色。

I think there'll be disappointment at the moment with the investors who always want to see upside, oh the pricing is a little bit softer, what's going wrong, the margin broken, why are not prices rising. We've had 2 years of very strong pricing growth. We're seeing much more modest pricing growth into this summer. And if that some degree of consumer resistance or we need to incentivize consumers travel, so be it. But for the next 2 or 3 summers, capacity is going to remain constrained, nobody can add that meaningful capacity in Europe other than the Ryanair deliveries. And I think pricing is going to be flat -- slightly up for the next 2 or 3 summers, which should feed well into the Ryanair model, where our unit costs are rising at a much lower rate than competitors and prices will rise. Next question Maxine?

我認為目前總是希望看到上漲的投資者會感到失望，哦，定價有點軟，出了什麼問題，利潤率破了，為什麼價格不上漲。我們已經經歷了兩年非常強勁的價格成長。我們看到今年夏天的價格成長更為溫和。如果消費者存在某種程度的抵制，或者我們需要激勵消費者旅行，那就這樣吧。但在接下來的兩三個夏天，運力仍將受到限制，除了瑞安航空的交付之外，沒有人可以在歐洲增加有意義的運力。我認為定價將持平——在接下來的兩三個夏天略有上漲，這應該很好地融入瑞安航空的模式，我們的單位成本增長速度比競爭對手低得多，而且價格也會上漲。下一個問題是瑪克辛？

The next question comes from Jarrod Castle from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的賈羅德·卡斯爾。

Jarrod, go ahead.

賈羅德，繼續吧。

Unfortunately, we're not getting audio from Jarrod's line. We'll move over to the next question. The next question comes from Stephen Furlong from Davy.

不幸的是，我們沒有從賈羅德的線路中獲得音訊。我們將轉到下一個問題。下一個問題來自戴維的史蒂芬·弗隆。

Michael, can you talk a bit about the OTA deals? I'm thinking that as we look beyond the summer into the first portion of winter, the Christmas period, it was hit last year. So maybe it's something that will help you as they -- all those deals are bed down, might talk about that.

Michael，您能談談 OTA 交易嗎？我認為，當我們把目光從夏季轉移到冬季的第一部分，即聖誕節期間時，去年就受到了打擊。所以也許這對你有幫助，因為所有這些交易都已經完成，可能會談論這一點。

And then the second thing, just on Boeing, I may know some things aren't in their console, but are you happy to see them acquire their Spirit error systems? And do you see any sign that there will be any issues or delays with the MAX-10 certification? Or is it still all up in the air?

然後第二件事，就波音而言，我可能知道有些東西不在他們的控制台中，但是你很高興看到他們獲得他們的 Spirit 錯誤系統嗎？您是否看到任何跡象表明 MAX-10 認證會出現任何問題或延遲？或者一切仍然懸而未決？

Thanks, Stephen. Look, I mean, I think the OTA -- we bought the OTA pirates for 10 years now. We still find it astonishing that the consumer agencies, the European Commission allow these guys to legally engage in digital piracy by a legally screen scraping Ryanair's inventory and then turn around and inflate those airfares and ancillary services and due consumers. If we or any other airline did this, they'd be down the second tonne of bricks. And yes, they think turn to blind out to these guys. They seem to me to accept the value are duped into believing because that there's some kind of honest price comparison websites when they're not. They have been scanning and overcharging consumers for years now.

謝謝，史蒂芬。聽著，我的意思是，我認為 OTA——我們購買 OTA 盜版已經 10 年了。我們仍然感到驚訝的是，消費者機構、歐盟委員會允許這些人透過合法篩選瑞安航空的庫存來合法從事數位盜版，然後轉身誇大這些機票和輔助服務以及應有的消費者。如果我們或任何其他航空公司這樣做，他們就會減少第二噸磚塊。是的，他們認為對這些人視而不見。在我看來，他們似乎接受了被欺騙的價值，因為有某種誠實的價格比較網站，而他們卻沒有。多年來，他們一直在掃描消費者並向消費者收取過高的費用。

It seems though we brought (inaudible) in December. I think gradually, as we have moved to more sophisticated payments and payment protection for consumers, it's harder for these guys to pass the results off the Ryanair. The good news now is we have signed up, I would say, 10 of our 11 largest OTAs and that have either signed up to our approved OTA distribution deals, are already in the process of agreeing those deals.

看來我們是在十二月帶來的（聽不清楚）。我認為，隨著我們逐漸轉向更複雜的支付和對消費者的支付保護，這些人更難將結果從瑞安航空轉移出去。現在的好消息是，我想說，我們 11 家最大的 OTA 中的 10 家已經簽署了我們批准的 OTA 分銷協議，並且已經在同意這些協議的過程中。

The only one who stands out there is still eDreams, which is a total scam, still taking out, passing themselves off, passing off Ryanair airfares that massively inflated overcharges, both on the underlying airfares and on the ancillary fees. They've also started this eDreams Prime scam where they guarantee discounts on 100% of flight, but what they do is they take Ryanair EUR 50, they pass it off to their eDream Prime members as an EUR 80 airfare, is the discount back to EUR 54, EUR 55. It is a complete scam, eDreams Prime member shouldn't pay the EUR 65. And by the way, what eDreams then do, if they don't even allow the consumer when they roll it over into year 2 or year 3, they increase the cost. You're getting no value whatsoever, no discounts when you're booking Ryanair flights with the eDreams and they are also being scammed for inflated ancillary services such as priority boarding and, but all of the others, Kiwi, loveholidays, some of the bigger (inaudible) have all signed approval.

唯一脫穎而出的仍然是 eDreams，這是一個徹頭徹尾的騙局，仍然在冒充、冒充瑞安航空的機票，這些機票在基礎機票和附加費用上都大幅虛高。他們也開始了這個 eDreams Prime 騙局，他們保證 100% 的航班折扣，但他們所做的是拿瑞安航空 50 歐元，將其作為 80 歐元的機票轉嫁給 eDream Prime 會員，折扣回到54 歐元，55 歐元。會增加成本。當你透過eDreams 預訂Ryanair 航班時，你沒有得到任何價值，沒有折扣，而且他們還因虛高的輔助服務（例如優先登機）而被騙，但所有其他服務，Kiwi、loveholidays 以及一些規模較大的航空公司（聽不清楚）已全部簽署批准。

And the good thing about the approved OTA deals is one, it guarantees the consumer price transparency. You're only paying the published Ryanair fares; two, you're only paying the -- the published Ryanair ancillary prices. The OTA may charge you a small or modest separate fee, but at least you know what you're paying the OTA and what you're paying to Ryanair. And reading that transparency is vital for protecting consumers.

獲得批准的 OTA 交易的好處之一是，它保證了消費者價格的透明度。您只需支付瑞安航空公佈的票價；第二，您只需支付瑞安航空公佈的輔助價格。 OTA 可能會向您收取少量或適度的單獨費用，但至少您知道您向 OTA 支付的費用以及向 Ryanair 支付的費用。了解透明度對於保護消費者至關重要。

The good news from Ryanair's point of view is we also get the -- they agree that we get the payment details and the passenger contact details as well. So if we have to send you pre-flight information or disruption information or procedural change intervention, it goes straight to your e-mail, not in the case of eDreams where we still get a fake e-mail addresses or fake payment details and that communication with the passengers get lost.

從瑞安航空的角度來看，好消息是我們也得到了——他們同意我們得到付款詳細資訊和乘客的聯絡方式。因此，如果我們必須向您發送飛行前資訊或中斷訊息或程序變更乾預，它會直接發送到您的電子郵件，而不是在eDreams 的情況下，我們仍然會收到虛假的電子郵件地址或虛假的付款詳細信息，並且與乘客的溝通中斷。

There was no doubt that the OTA has taken us off late in December did hit close-in bookings in Q3 and certainly into Q4, and there's a view among the commercial team, although I don't subscribe to it that some of that OTA dispute is impacting our Q1 bookings that we would have had more family or leisure holiday bookings. I'm not sure that the OTAs have that much volumes. But that's their view, that's their view. I think the underlying softness in pricing at the moment is just there's a bit of consumer resistance out there and consumer spending is generally challenged across most sectors in Europe at the moment in safer needs stimulation, it needs stimulation. But I think we would probably be helped in Q3 and Q4 next year. But we will need that help because we won't have the first half of Easter in Q4 of FY '25.

毫無疑問，OTA 在 12 月底讓我們起飛，確實在第三季和第四季達到了接近的預訂量，商業團隊中有一種觀點，儘管我不同意其中一些 OTA 爭議正在影響我們第一季的預訂，我們本來會有更多的家庭或休閒度假預訂。我不確定 OTA 是否有那麼多數量。但這是他們的觀點，這就是他們的觀點。我認為目前定價的潛在疲軟只是存在一些消費者阻力，目前歐洲大多數產業的消費者支出普遍面臨安全需求刺激的挑戰，它需要刺激。但我認為明年第三季和第四季我們可能會得到幫助。但我們需要這種幫助，因為 25 財年第四季我們不會有復活節前半段。

In terms of Boeing, I don't think the Spirit acquisition makes much difference one way or the other. Boeing has whether Spirit was an approved supplier or a subsidiary of Boeing. What's critically Boeing is we need hard-to-job management in Seattle and in Wichita. We have certainly seen an improvement in the quality of the fuselage is being moved from Spirit to Wichita after about a 2-month gap. So what's been moved to Seattle at the moment is undoubtedly they're not carrying forward defects on fuselage, which have to be repaired at Seattle. However, that hasn't just speeded up the turnaround of the planes in Seattle, they should be turning around those fuselages in about 8 or 9 weeks. We're seeing turnaround in 12, 14 weeks.

就波音而言，我認為收購 Spirit 不會產生太大影響。波音公司了解 Spirit 是否是經批准的供應商或波音公司的子公司。對波音來說，最重要的是我們在西雅圖和威奇托需要難以工作的管理階層。我們確實看到了機身品質的改善，在大約兩個月的間隙後，機身從 Spirit 轉移到了威奇托。因此，目前轉移到西雅圖的無疑是他們不會將機身缺陷保留下來，這些缺陷必須在西雅圖進行修復。然而，這不僅加快了西雅圖飛機的周轉速度，而且他們應該在大約 8 到 9 週內完成機身的周轉。我們將在 12、14 週內看到好轉。

Greeting Stephanie Pope and the team in Seattle are doing a much better job. The good thing is Stephanie, she is there. She's on the ground. There's a daily, weekly briefings. I think they're getting it. We have seen recently, for the first time, a little bit of a pull forward of aircraft deliveries. We originally thought we were only getting 3 aircraft in July. It now looks like we'll get 7. We get 10 aircraft deliveries in August, but that's too late. It deliveries in August and no use to us. We've missed the summer peak. But we keep taking those deliveries through July, August, September, October, November, so that I'm now reasonably confident we'll get all of those 59 aircraft before the end of calendar 2024. That then we move on immediately to well.

問候史蒂芬妮波普和西雅圖的團隊做得更好。幸好史蒂芬妮就在那裡。她在地上。有每日、每週的簡報。我想他們明白了。最近，我們第一次看到飛機交付量出現了一些提前。我們原本以為 7 月只能買 3 架飛機。現在看起來我們將獲得 7 架。它在八月交付，但對我們沒有用。我們錯過了夏季高峰。但我們一直在7 月、8 月、9 月、10 月、11 月期間交付這些飛機，因此我現在有相當的信心，我們將在2024 年日曆結束之前收到所有這59 架飛機。繼續前進。

Now our 29 aircraft, we're going to get from January to April of '25. I think there's a risk of some slippage there. We will be insisting or hoping to get aircraft. If we can get all the 29 aircraft between January and June of 2025, we'll be in reasonably good shape for summer 2025. And then just to touch briefly, there has been some slippage on the MAX-7 certification. I think it's now moved from the back end of '24 into the -- I would hope the first half of FY '25 that normally means that MAX-10 has slipped a little bit to the middle end of 2025. They will miss, in my view, some of their -- the lead -- the first deliveries of the MAX-10 in summer 2025 to the American carriers.

現在我們有 29 架飛機，我們將從 25 年 1 月到 4 月獲得。我認為那裡存在一些滑倒的風險。我們將堅持或希望獲得飛機。如果我們能夠在 2025 年 1 月至 6 月期間獲得全部 29 架飛機，那麼我們在 2025 年夏季將處於相當良好的狀態。我認為現在已經從 24 財年下半年移至 25 財年上半年，這通常意味著 MAX-10 已經稍微下滑到 2025 年中期。年夏季首次向美國航空公司交付MAX-10。

But we don't think, at this stage, it will delay our deliveries in our first 17 deliveries that are in the spring of 2027. But there's a risk that some of those might get it. It won't fundamentally alter our growth prospects for summer 2027, but we would like to see definitely both by the team in Seattle, continue the good work they've done recently on improving quality. Now let's improve and accelerate deliveries. Now let's catch up the backlog and make sure that the MAX-7 certification happens in the first half of '25. MAX-10 in the second half of '25. And if they can get there and there's no other unforeseen events, then I think we would be reasonably confident that we'll get the MAX-10 in time for summer '27.

但我們認為，在現階段，這不會推遲我們 2027 年春季前 17 次交付的交付。它不會從根本上改變我們 2027 年夏季的成長前景，但我們絕對希望看到西雅圖的團隊繼續他們最近在提高品質方面所做的出色工作。現在讓我們改進並加速交貨。現在讓我們處理積壓的工作並確保 MAX-7 認證在 25 年上半年完成。 25 年下半年的 MAX-10。如果他們能夠到達那裡並且沒有其他不可預見的事件，那麼我認為我們將有理由相信我們將在 27 年夏天及時獲得 MAX-10。

Stepping back on from that, and I think just as important here, Boeing are still making great aircraft, like they have shipped an unbelievable amount of unfair publicity recently. Every time there's a maintenance defect and nose wheel falls up in Air Canada aircraft and engine cowl comes off Southwest aircraft, those are not, it's all reports have Boeing aircraft. Those are maintenance issues with Air Canada and Southwest. They're not Boeing issues.

退一步來說，我認為同樣重要的是，波音公司仍在製造出色的飛機，就像他們最近發布了大量令人難以置信的大量不公平宣傳一樣。每當加拿大航空的飛機出現維修缺陷、前輪掉落、西南航空的發動機罩脫落時，這些都不是，所有報告都是波音飛機。這些都是加拿大航空和西南航空的維護問題。它們不是波音的問題。

The Gamechangers that we now have about 160 that in the fleet this summer are flying really well for us, huge customer approval, very quiet experience in flight, huge fuel savings. I mean they are delivering 16% less fuel and carrying 4% more passengers. These aircraft are transformational for Ryanair's cost base for the next decade. And I think they will enable us to carry more and more passengers, but at a significantly lower fuel cost per passenger and also significantly less emission -- CO2 emission as well. So at much lower cost, much more fuel efficient, and (inaudible) environment as well.

今年夏天，我們的機隊中約有 160 架遊戲規則改變者，它們的飛行效果非常好，獲得了巨大的客戶認可，飛行時非常安靜，節省了大量燃油。我的意思是，它們減少了 16% 的燃油，並增加了 4% 的乘客。這些飛機將改變瑞安航空未來十年的成本基礎。我認為它們將使我們能夠運載越來越多的乘客，但每位乘客的燃料成本顯著降低，排放量（二氧化碳排放量）也顯著減少。因此，成本要低得多，燃油效率要高得多，而且（聽不清楚）環境也好。

So we take to go and keep up the good work. We will be asked who we think should take over in Boeing, we don't care as long as it doesn't affect the good work that Stephanie Pope and the team are doing in Seattle. We do not want any disruptions in Seattle. We want all of Boeing. And I think Dave Calhoun gets it. I'm sorry to see him go at the end of the year because I think somebody does need to run Boeing to allow the people to get to focus on the deliveries and the quality of those deliveries. But we are very supportive of the good work that Stephanie Pope and the Seattle team we're doing at the moment.

所以我們要繼續做好工作。我們會被問到我們認為誰應該接手波音公司，我們不在乎，只要這不影響史蒂芬妮波普和團隊在西雅圖所做的出色工作。我們不希望西雅圖受到任何干擾。我們想要波音的全部。我認為戴夫·卡爾霍恩明白了。我很遺憾看到他在年底離開，因為我認為確實需要有人來管理波音公司，讓人們專注於交付和交付的品質。但我們非常支持 Stephanie Pope 和西雅圖團隊目前所做的出色工作。

The next question comes from Jaime Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Jaime Rowbotham。

Michael, 2 questions for me, please. Firstly, the buyback running between now and November. Would it be sensible for us to think of this as maybe a first tranche with the potential for you to maybe go again depending on how summer pans out? Or does the EUR 1 billion higher CapEx in fiscal '25 mean that's a lot less likely now.

邁克爾，請問我兩個問題。首先，從現在到十一月的回購。我們認為這可能是第一批，您可能會根據夏天的進展再次參加，這是否明智？或者 25 財年資本支出增加 10 億歐元是否意味著現在這種可能性要小得多？

Second one, on costs, you've put the nonfuel cost commentary in with fuel to stay modestly up overall on a per unit basis. But if we unpick the moving parts a bit focusing on the nonfuel bit, I feel like you are pushing us towards maybe a couple of euros again on Neil's metric of nonfuel cost per tax, which would be mid- to high single-digit inflation. And to be fair, that is a bit higher than what we hear some of your peers guiding, easyJet guiding, I think, low single-digit increase in nonfuel unit costs this summer. So perhaps you could just address that in terms of the gap widening.

第二個，關於成本，您將非燃料成本評論與燃料成本一起考慮，以保持每單位整體適度上升。但如果我們把移動部分集中在非燃料方面，我覺得根據尼爾的每稅非燃料成本指標，你可能會再次將我們推向幾歐元，這將是中高個位數的通貨膨脹。公平地說，這比我們聽到的一些同行指導的數字要高一些，我認為易捷航空指導今年夏天非燃油單位成本的低個位數增長。所以也許你可以透過差距擴大來解決這個問題。

Jaime, all I can say on buybacks is we have -- unlike most of our competitors, we are cash generative. We have -- we're paying down debt aggressively. In 2 years' time, we'll be zero debt. All we have said is that as the Board had the policy, if we generate surplus cash, first, it will be used to restore pay and put multiyear pay agreements in place for our people.

Jaime，關於回購，我只能說，與我們的大多數競爭對手不同，我們能夠產生現金。我們正在積極償還債務。兩年後，我們的債務將為零。我們所說的只是，根據董事會的政策，如果我們產生盈餘現金，首先，它將用於恢復工資並為我們的員工製定多年工資協議。

Secondly, we'll pay down debt aggressively as debt costs are rising in the current marketplace. And thirdly, it will be CapEx, but we know we're coming up to a kind of a 2-year CapEx holiday. And if there's any spare cash or surplus cash, we are committed to continue to return that to shareholders. We think EUR 700 million now is appropriate. The Board thinks that's appropriate between now and November. What they do after that will depend on what the cash position is after that. And I don't want to pre-judge what the Board will do. I mean all I would remind you is there's a dividend payment coming in November. We have a share buyback this year.

其次，隨著當前市場債務成本的上升，我們將積極償還債務。第三，這將是資本支出，但我們知道我們即將迎來為期兩年的資本支出假期。如果有任何閒置現金或剩餘現金，我們致力於繼續將其返還給股東。我們認為現在7億歐元是合適的。董事會認為從現在到十一月是合適的。之後他們做什麼將取決於之後的現金狀況。我不想預先判斷董事會將做什麼。我的意思是，我要提醒您的是，11 月將支付股息。今年我們進行了股票回購。

And I would point to -- remember the Board's commitment that we have a dividend policy that will return 25% of after-tax profits, currently EUR 1.93 billion. That's about EUR 480 million in calendar year 2025. So I think the Board is more than living up to its commitment that once we've addressed our people, our debt and our CapEx, we're clearly returning surplus cash to the shareholders who support us during COVID.

我想指出的是，請記住董事會的承諾，我們的股息政策將返還 25% 的稅後利潤（目前為 19.3 億歐元）。到2025 年，這一數字約為4.8 億歐元。股東。

Neil will give you more color on the comp, but give me a couple -- there just -- what issue I would point to here is, yes, our unit costs are rising slightly. Labor is a driver of that but our unit cost growth at a much lower base than many of our competitors is going to be less than some of our competitors. We see for example, you mentioned easyJet. I mean their clients have recently rejected a 20% pay increase and are tracking strikes through this summer. An easyJet do not have a great record of standing up to the unions when they're certain with strikes.

尼爾會給你更多關於比較的信息，但給我一些——就這樣——我要指出的問題是，是的，我們的單位成本正在略有上升。勞動力是其中的推動因素，但我們的單位成本成長基數遠低於許多競爭對手，因此將低於我們的一些競爭對手。例如，我們看到您提到了易捷航空。我的意思是，他們的客戶最近拒絕了 20% 的加薪，並正在追蹤今年夏天的罷工情況。當工會確定要罷工時，易捷航空並沒有抵抗工會的良好記錄。

But there is undoubtedly pay inflation running through the system. I think the fact that there's capacity stability in Europe is helpful from that point of view. We have very little pie at our cabin crew attrition at the moment. In fact, if anything, we're frankly over crewed this summer because we crewed up for all of the Boeing deliveries and we're not going to -- they're going to leave us about 20 aircraft short. If you look across North America, while some of the deals that have been done with the pilots and crews across the North American airlines, it's off the chart.

但毫無疑問，整個系統都存在著薪資上漲的情況。我認為從這個角度來看，歐洲產能穩定這一事實是有幫助的。目前，我們的機組人員流失情況很少。事實上，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是今年夏天我們的人員配備過多，因為我們為所有波音飛機的交付配備了人員，但我們不會這樣做——他們會讓我們缺少大約20 架飛機。如果你放眼整個北美，你會發現北美航空公司與飛行員和機組人員達成的一些交易是不可思議的。

In Europe, there is no doubt that our -- and we continue to ask our pilots, our cabin crew, our engineers to perform efficiently. They deliver a best service plan airline in Europe. They're also delivering the most efficient turnarounds. And it is only fare, I think that we share some of the upside with our crews in the form of multiyear pay agreement. And if we have to respond in that marketplace to be competitive on pay, and then we will continue to do so. But it will -- we -- our increase in costs, our cost inflation this year will be significantly lower than any other airline in Europe, including some of the words you mentioned, Jaime. Neil, do you want add anything on the unit cost outlook?

在歐洲，毫無疑問，我們將繼續要求我們的飛行員、機組人員和工程師高效工作。他們是歐洲提供最佳服務計劃的航空公司。他們還提供最有效的周轉服務。這只是票價，我認為我們以多年薪資協議的形式與我們的工作人員分享一些好處。如果我們必須在該市場上做出反應以在薪酬方面具有競爭力，那麼我們將繼續這樣做。但我們今年的成本增加、成本通膨將大大低於歐洲任何其他航空公司，包括你提到的一些話，Jaime。尼爾，您想對單位成本前景添加任何內容嗎？

I will. I mean, I think the key here is that we're well hedged into next year. As you indicated, Michael, however, we are carrying extra crew this summer due to the Boeing delivery delays. The final outcome on cost per pax will ultimately depend on whether we commit with 198 million passengers or 200 million passengers. But net-net, on a total cost basis, we're broadly flat to margin or to factor in the fuel savings that we're getting on the Gamechanger's important factor in the hedging impact that we have. And the nonfuel stuff is annualization of pay increases that we gave last year, extra crew that we're carrying and some additional engineering and handling costs. So nothing significant coming through here. And as I said, broadly flat on a total cost basis on the year.

我會。我的意思是，我認為這裡的關鍵是我們對明年做好了充分的對沖。然而，正如你所指出的，邁克爾，由於波音交付延誤，我們今年夏天將運送額外的機組人員。每人成本的最終結果將最終取決於我們是否承諾搭載 1.98 億乘客或 2 億名乘客。但淨淨值，在總成本的基礎上，我們的利潤率大致持平，或者考慮到我們在對沖影響中對遊戲規則改變者的重要因素所節省的燃料。非燃料方面的內容包括我們去年的年薪成長、我們攜帶的額外船員以及一些額外的工程和處理成本。所以這裡沒有什麼重要的事情發生。正如我所說，今年的總成本基本上持平。

And I would just point out, our fuel hedging position here is the benefit but again, you look at the numbers that were produced recently by way -- by easyJet. I think they were about 42%, 43% hedged out to March 2025 at about $83 a barrel, we're at 71%, 72% hedged at $79 a barrel. And in fact, we are now 10% hedged for FY '26 $79 a barrel. So don't just dismiss the fuel savings. It's all part of the same envelope. And while, yes, I think there will be modest unit cost inflation, excluding fuel, that will be more, I think, than a pickup over the next year or 2 on if capacity is constrained, modest fare increases over the next couple of summers in Europe.

我只想指出，我們的燃油對沖頭寸是好處，但同樣，你看看最近由易捷航空產生的數據。我認為到 2025 年 3 月，他們大約有 42%、43% 以每桶 83 美元左右的價格進行對沖，而我們則有 71%、72% 以每桶 79 美元的價格進行對沖。事實上，我們現在對 26 財年每桶 79 美元的價格進行了 10% 的對沖。因此，不要僅僅忽視節省的燃油。它們都是同一個信封的一部分。雖然，是的，我認為不包括燃料在內的單位成本通膨將會適度，但我認為，如果運力受到限制，這將比未來一兩年的回升幅度更大，未來幾個夏天票價將適度上漲在歐洲。

The next question comes from Alex Irving from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的亞歷克斯歐文。

So two for me, please. First of all, back on the fare expectation and the change there. My question is more geographic, has it been specifically worse than expected in the markets where our competition is more GTF heavy? Or is it more of a widest phenomenon?

請給我兩個。首先，回到票價預期和變化。我的問題更具地域性，在 GTF 競爭更加激烈的市場中，情況是否比預期更糟？或者說它是一種最廣泛的現象？

Second question is on the load factors. Before the pandemic, GTF 9%, 6% every single quarter, summer, winter didn't matter. Having been back there since is that a conscious decision as you're trying to maximize in total revenue passenger rather than just load factor optimized? Or is there something else behind that, please?

第二個問題是關於負載因子。疫情前，GTF 每季 9%、6%，夏天、冬天都沒關係。自從您回到那裡以來，這是一個有意識的決定，因為您試圖最大化乘客總收入，而不僅僅是優化載客率？或者這背後還有其他什麼嗎？

Okay. You broke up slight during the first one, but I mean, if -- correct me if I'm wrong, I think the question is that the fare weakness kind of across the board? Or is there particular geographies where the fare weakens? Is that the question?

好的。你們在第一次的時候稍微分手了，但我的意思是，如果——如果我錯了，請糾正我，我認為問題是票價全面疲軟？或是否有票價下降的特定地區？這是問題嗎？

Yes, that's right. Specifically, is it more weakness in the GTF heavy markets? Spain, Central and Eastern Europe.

恩，那就對了。具體來說，GTF 重型市場是否更加疲軟？西班牙、中歐和東歐。

And what's the GTF-heavy market?

GTF 的市場是什麼？

In the markets where you have competitors with GTF engines that can't use their planes. So I think more widespread in those markets.

在那些擁有 GTF 引擎的競爭對手無法使用其飛機的市場中。所以我認為在這些市場中更廣泛。

No. I mean what we think -- and I'll ask maybe Eddie and Jason begin us to give some flavor of it. I mean, it's generally across the piece. April has been weak; May, June has been weak. And more of the weaknesses is on the delay, it is on the leisure routes, which is why honestly, we're not quite sure why that weakness, but we think it's a combination of some underlying impact of the OTA kind of lockout, where people would have been booking some kind of leisure packages in those markets maybe during April, May and June.

不，我的意思是我們的想法——我會問艾迪和傑森是否可以讓我們來談談它的味道。我的意思是，它通常是貫穿整個作品的。四月表現疲弱； 5月、6月一直疲軟。更多的弱點是延誤，是在休閒路線上，這就是為什麼說實話，我們不太確定為什麼會出現這種弱點，但我們認為這是 OTA 類型的封鎖的一些潛在影響的組合，其中人們可能會在四月、五月和六月期間在這些市場預訂某種休閒套餐。

But more generally speaking, broadly a bit of consumer resistance. There's a bit of lack of consumer spending, and you see that across most markets. I think that does benefit the Ryanair model where we have lower fares than anybody else. And we've seen that in recent weeks as we engage in reasonably modest price stimulation. Like we've done some 1499 and 1299 seed sales, 20% off, that has boosted capacity significantly. People -- the market is responding strongly whenever there's any little bit of price stimulation. But I would describe it as widespread rather than particular geographies.

但更一般地說，消費者普遍存在一些抵制。消費者支出有點缺乏，大多數市場都存在這種情況。我認為這確實有利於瑞安航空的模式，我們的票價比其他航空公司都低。最近幾週，當我們採取相當溫和的價格刺激措施時，我們已經看到了這一點。就像我們已經進行了一些 1499 和 1299 種子銷售，折扣 20%，這顯著提高了產能。人們——只要有一點點的價格刺激，市場就會做出強烈的反應。但我會把它描述為廣泛的而不是特定的地理區域。

We're very strong. If there was one area where I think we are a little bit stronger, it is probably in that Central Eastern European markets where with our grounding a significant number of aircraft, and we're growing strongly into what were previously is Wizz market in Albania have been very strong. Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, they tend to be small and reasonably weak, but we're growing strongly in Poland as well.

我們很強。如果說我認為我們在某個領域稍強的話，那可能是中東歐市場，我們停飛了大量飛機，我們正在強勁地發展到以前是阿爾巴尼亞的 Wizz 市場。羅馬尼亞、保加利亞、捷克共和國、斯洛伐克、波蘭，它們往往規模較小且相當薄弱，但我們在波蘭的成長也很強勁。

We generally tend not to notice with much in most markets because they generally significant -- price significantly higher than us. But it does seem to us that wins have taken a conscious decision where they're grounding aircraft or grounding aircraft across. Europe rather than their Middle East market, they do seem to be trying to protect or maintain whatever capacity or growth you have in those Middle Eastern markets. And we've seen them continue to retreat from markets in Italy, Albania, Central and Eastern Europe, where they're not able to compete with us on cost. 96% load at the time before the pandemic, yes, I mean I think we haven't consciously set ourselves a load factor, we're not constantly stepping down the load factor but we are undeniably in a marketplace post-pandemic where pricing is materially stronger. And therefore, we are not in that kind of capacity growth fare, huge capacity growth rates across the market we're in to fight for every percentage of market share gains.

我們通常不會注意到大多數市場的情況，因為它們通常很重要——價格明顯高於我們。但在我們看來，勝利者確實做出了有意識的決定，讓飛機停飛或讓飛機停飛。歐洲而不是中東市場，他們似乎確實在努力保護或維持您在中東市場擁有的任何能力或成長。我們看到他們繼續從義大利、阿爾巴尼亞、中歐和東歐市場撤出，因為他們無法在成本上與我們競爭。大流行之前的負載率為96％，是的，我的意思是我認為我們沒有有意識地為自己設定負載係數，我們不會不斷降低負載係數，但不可否認的是，我們處於大流行後的市場中，定價是物質上更強大。因此，我們並沒有處於那種容量成長速度，整個市場的巨大容量成長率，我們正在為每一個百分比的市佔率收益而奮鬥。

We're taking huge market share gains and also seeing modest fare increases. We first used, I mean, as we said the budget load factor for this year is the same as last year at about 94%. As a percentage to a point to below pre-pandemic 96%. I think that's because pre-pandemic, underlying airports were 50%, 60% lower than they are today. And we were still fighting with lots of other airlines that were adding capacity or airlines like ITA and TAP in Portugal who are operating twice the fleet they are today and losing money hand over fist.

我們獲得了龐大的市場份額，同時票價也略有上漲。我的意思是，我們首先使用的是，正如我們所說，今年的預算負載率與去年相同，約為 94%。百分比低於疫情前的 96%。我認為這是因為大流行前，基礎機場比現在低 50%、60%。我們仍在與許多其他增加運力的航空公司或葡萄牙的 ITA 和 TAP 等航空公司進行鬥爭，這些航空公司的機隊規模是現在的兩倍，而且虧損嚴重。

So there hasn't been any great conscious decision. I think it's just -- a 94% load factor is a reflection of the fact that we're operating in a market where post COVID, fares are higher, demand is stronger but we're not trying to trash our own yields to win market share, where we need huge amounts of market share with at modestly higher airfares -- modestly higher airfares than last year and significantly higher airfares than pre-COVID. Eddie and Jason might be helpful. Is there anything you want to add by way of color on fares by market or generally, what's your analysis of why the fares are a little bit weaker than we thought would be?

所以沒有任何重大的有意識的決定。我認為，94% 的載客率反映了這樣一個事實：我們在新冠疫情之後運營的市場中，票價更高，需求更強勁，但我們並不想通過降低自己的收益率來贏得市場份額，我們需要以適度上漲的機票價格獲得大量的市場份額——比去年略高的機票價格，比新冠疫情爆發前明顯更高的機票價格。艾迪和傑森可能會有所幫助。您是否想透過對市場票價的顏色來添加任何內容，或者總體而言，您對為什麼票價比我們想像的要弱一些的分析是什麼？

Yes. And [Terry,] Michael, I might just let Jason in a second. Yes. I mean I'd agree with you say that, I mean, in terms of like where we are pulled back in places like in Eastern Europe where we wouldn't have a strong presence like (inaudible) places like that. But just so that the audience here understand about when we're talking about OTAs as well. So like what has happened is that when OTAs prior to this when we're scraping could actually make up to fares or make up the ancillaries. But when you go from screen scraping to an API, there's a lot of technical work or whatever that goes on, on the OTA and to get the pipes fully sort of homing. So it's -- so that has happened as we've signed up each of those OTAs and more of that should -- I know you disagree with that, but more of that should come through the pipes as those APIs become more fluid. Jason, do you have anything there?

是的。 [崔、]邁克爾，我可能會讓傑森稍等一下。是的。我的意思是，我同意你的說法，我的意思是，就我們在東歐這樣的地方撤退而言，在那裡我們不會像（聽不清楚）這樣的地方有強大的存在。但只是為了讓這裡的觀眾了解我們何時也談論 OTA。因此，就像發生的事情一樣，在此之前，當我們拼湊時，OTA 實際上可以彌補票價或彌補輔助費用。但是，當您從螢幕擷取轉向 API 時，需要在 OTA 上進行大量技術工作或其他任何工作，以使管道完全歸位。因此，當我們簽署了每個 OTA 以及更多的 OTA 時，就發生了這種情況，我知道您不同意這一點，但隨著這些 API 變得更加流暢，更多的內容應該通過管道進行。傑森，你那裡有什麼東西嗎？

Yes. The only thing I'd add is covered already a little bit. Central and Eastern Europe is very strong. Like we consciously increased capacity on the [laser] piece out of Central and Eastern Europe by 20%, 25% this summer, and it's absorbing very, very well. The 5 new bases are working very well. We actually grew the Balkans, new brace in Dubrovnik, new routes in Sarajevo, and those are working very, very well as well, actually very strong domestic and particularly where Wizz of now almost completely pulled off is very strong. So that part of the market is very strong. The leisure piece in Western, yes, a little bit softer, fares not increasing as quickly as I'd expected, but volumes are still strong on us, but a little bit of price stimulation needed, particularly on some of the mid-week leisure.

是的。我唯一要補充的是已經涵蓋了一點。中東歐非常強大。就像我們今年夏天有意識地將中歐和東歐的[雷射]部分產能提高了 20%、25%，而且吸收得非常非常好。 5個新基地運作良好。我們實際上在巴爾幹地區發展了，在杜布羅夫尼克建立了新支線，在薩拉熱窩建立了新航線，這些都運行得非常非常好，實際上在國內非常強大，特別是現在幾乎完全成功的威茲非常強大。所以這部分市場非常強大。西方的休閒部分，是的，有點疲軟，票價上漲的速度沒有我預期的那麼快，但我們的銷量仍然強勁，但需要一點價格刺激，特別是在周中的一些休閒活動上。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Can you comment on how much of your passenger volume came from U.S. consumers running around Europe last summer? And if you have a view on how that plays out this year? And then my follow-up would be on the EUR 450 million of savings you've called out year-to-year on fuel. What is that net of ETS? Does ETS offset some of that fuel savings?

您能否評論一下去年夏天您的客運量中有多少來自在歐洲各地旅行的美國消費者？您對今年的情況有何看法？然後我的後續行動將是您每年節省的 4.5 億歐元燃料費用。 ETS 的網路是什麼？ ETS 是否可以抵消部分燃油節省？

Okay. Both of those are above my pay grade, I'm afraid. I don't know Eddie or Jason, if you have any idea how much U.S. consumers make up of our traffic in Europe? And maybe, Neil, I might ask you just to comment on the -- how much of the EUR 450 million saving where none of it is made up of the positive net of an ETS. Eddie and Jason, anything on U.S. consumers?

好的。恐怕這兩個都高於我的薪水等級。我不知道艾迪或傑森，你們是否知道美國消費者占我們歐洲流量的比例？尼爾，也許我可能會請您評論一下——4.5 億歐元的節省中有多少不是由碳排放交易體系的淨收益組成的。艾迪和傑森，有關於美國消費者的事情嗎？

Jason, you go ahead.

傑森，你繼續吧。

I don't know, it's a relatively a smaller number.

我不知道，這個數字相對較小。

All right. The answer is we don't know (inaudible) we have is we don't tend not to have to worry about the nationalities consumers, all we really worry about is that we're getting a 94% load factor and that they paid us well in advance of their departure.

好的。答案是我們不知道（聽不清楚）我們不必擔心消費者的國籍，我們真正擔心的是我們得到了 94% 的負載率並且他們付錢給我們早在他們出發之前。

Yes. Duane, ETS is obviously becoming a bigger portion of our fuel bill as the free allowances unwind. So we will go from just under EUR 700 million in the year just gone, just over EUR 800 million, probably about EUR 850 million in the next financial year. So that's all part of our overall fuel guides, but the EUR 450 million is based on our jet hedging and our dollar hedging at this point in time.

是的。杜安，隨著免費配額的取消，ETS 顯然正在成為我們燃油費用的更大一部分。因此，我們的預算將從剛剛過去的一年中的略低於 7 億歐元，增加到略高於 8 億歐元，到下一個財政年度可能約為 8.5 億歐元。這就是我們整體燃油指南的一部分，但 4.5 億歐元是基於我們目前的飛機對沖和美元對沖。

Got it. Well, sorry for the U.S. curve ball there, but I appreciate the thoughts.

知道了。好吧，對美國的曲線球感到抱歉，但我很欣賞這些想法。

And we welcome all U.S. passengers on board our aircraft doing, apart from those guys were the big heavy gold clubs. But nevertheless, we're not too worried about nationality as long as we get paid.

我們歡迎所有美國乘客登上我們的飛機，除了那些大而重的金色俱樂部的人。但儘管如此，只要我們能得到報酬，我們就不太擔心國籍。

Next question comes from Sathish Sivakumar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Sathish Sivakumar。

I got 2 questions here. First is on the ancillaries. If you could just give some color in FY '24, that which part of the like ancillaries performed well? And where do you see that trend into FY '25? And the second one, maybe just for Jason, actually. If we look at the demand-wise, how does the beach versus city, mid-week versus weekend like trending? And where are like in terms of pricing delta set? So like is it material between, say, midweek and weekend and beach and city? Or is it like just directionally the same across the board?

我這裡有 2 個問題。首先是在輔助設備上。如果您能給 24 財年一些顏色，那麼類似輔助設備的哪一部分錶現良好？您如何看待 25 財年的這種趨勢？第二個，實際上可能只是為了傑森。如果我們從需求角度來看，海灘與城市、周中與週末的趨勢如何？定價增量設定在哪裡？那麼，比如說，周中和週末、海灘和城市之間的時間是否重要？或者說只是方向上是一樣的？

We are looking remarks on our ancillaries, as we've said in the last year and I think for next year, ancillaries will continue to follow a little bit ahead of scheduled traffic growth. Scheduled traffic growth last year was 8%, ancillaries were up by a couple of percentage points above that. We continue to work on penetration conversion. The big ones are still the big ones, which is a priority boarding, reserve seating, baggage fees and we expect that will continue to be. There's nothing new or radical that we see in ancillaries at the moment, but ancillaries to perform -- continue to perform very strongly and we would expect that to recur again next year. Ancillary revenues will be a couple of percentage points ahead of scheduled traffic growth. Jason, color on the yield fares midweeks?

正如我們去年所說的那樣，我們正在尋找有關輔助設施的評論，我認為明年輔助設施將繼續比預定的流量增長稍早。去年的預定運輸量增加了 8%，輔助設施的運輸量增加了幾個百分點。我們持續致力於滲透率轉換。大的仍然是大的，即優先登機、預留座位、行李費，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。目前，我們在輔助設備中沒有看到任何新的或激進的東西，但輔助設備將繼續表現強勁，我們預計明年會再次出現這種情況。輔助收入將比預定的流量成長提前幾個百分點。傑森，周中收益率票價的顏色？

Yes. Look, I'm not going to go into the difference on leisure and cities. Like cities working very, very well. Strong volumes are strong. There's nothing really to call out in terms of the variations there between weekend and midweek. As I say, it is the leisure piece that is a little bit softer than we were expecting. However, I have to reiterate, like volumes are strong. And as you said earlier, Mike, it's responding where we need to stimulate. So volume is strong as the overall aim.

是的。聽著，我不會討論休閒和城市之間的差異。就像城市運作得非常非常好一樣。成交量強勁就是強勁。週末和周中之間的變化並沒有什麼值得指出的。正如我所說，這是一款休閒單品，比我們預期的要柔和一些。然而，我必須重申，成交量很強。正如你之前所說，麥克，它在我們需要刺激的地方做出反應。因此整體目標是成交量強勁。

Next question comes from Jarrod Castle from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的賈羅德·卡斯爾。

Michael, you obviously become quite a decent size facilitated to the package holiday providers on the beach and (inaudible) and the rest. I mean looking back, do you think it was a mistake not to undertake your own package holidays? I know you did try and then you moved away from it and any thoughts going forward? Is this a future opportunity, let's say, for you?

邁克爾，顯然，你的身材已經相當不錯，有助於海灘和（聽不清楚）和其他地方的套餐度假提供者。我的意思是回顧過去，您認為不參加自己的套餐度假是一個錯誤嗎？我知道你確實嘗試過，然後你就放棄了，接下來有什麼想法嗎？比方說，這對你來說是一個未來的機會嗎？

And then just looking maybe a bit more at the fuel hedging. I mean there's been a number of years where you materially ahead of current levels of hedging, 80%, even as high as 90%, I think, for where you were in 2019. Is this just more an opportunistic approach in terms of taking advantage of the movements in the fuel price or is this still very much a systematic approach?

然後再多關註一下燃料對沖。我的意思是，多年來，你的對沖水平已經大幅領先於當前的對沖水平，我認為，就2019 年的情況而言，80%，甚至高達90%。 ？

Right, 2 things on that. I'm not a believer in the package holiday business. I know easyJet are making some money in that business. But you mean to mine way of thinking, they're just moving the yield from the underlying airline into a package holiday business, investing a distracted every with the package holiday business. I think it's a distraction. If the package holiday businesses was where the money the future lay, Thomas Cook who -- those that would still be the -- by far and away, the biggest travel companies and they're not. I struggle -- I mean, there's no doubt that if you can secure a lot of accommodation, there's money to be made on the accommodation side. But I think increasingly, with the internet in this year, the consumers did intermediate, the accommodation, the flight and the transfers.

是的，有兩件事。我不相信旅遊套裝業務。我知道易捷航空在這項業務中賺了一些錢。但你的意思是，按照我的思維方式，他們只是將收益從基礎航空公司轉移到套餐假期業務中，投資於套餐假期業務的每一項分心。我認為這是一種幹擾。如果套裝度假業務是未來的賺錢之道，那麼托馬斯·庫克（Thomas Cook）——那些仍然是——迄今為止最大的旅遊公司，但他們不是。我很掙扎——我的意思是，毫無疑問，如果你能獲得大量住宿，那麼住宿方面就可以賺到錢。但我認為，隨著今年網路的發展，消費者越來越多地做中介、住宿、航班和轉乘。

Now we leaving some money on the table for those -- the OTAs and the -- I think we probably are, and we're very happy to do so. But if we can work with the OTAs, and as I said, we've now signed up or are about to sign up 10 of the -- of our biggest 11. There's additional money for them to be made in getting direct access to Ryanair airfare without having to pay some intermediate screen scraper a fee and we are undoubtedly either a, going to get higher airfares or we going to ensure that the consumers get access to Ryanair's real airfares. There's upside for both of us in that. I will still be of the view that we are -- want to be Europe's largest scheduled airline and I don't really want to have the distraction of dealing with a holidays product. We did try to do it before it dresses up as Ryanair holidays, but really all we were trying to do is to be an OTA -- connect the OTAs to our flight system. They want to overcharge everybody. So it's taken about 10 years to convert them to our way of thinking but the low and behold, I think we're now converting them.

現在我們為那些——OTA 和——我想我們可能會留一些錢，而且我們很高興這樣做。但是，如果我們可以與 OTA 合作，正如我所說，我們現在已經簽約或即將簽約 11 家 OTA 中的 10 家。 ，毫無疑問，我們要么獲得更高的機票價格，要么確保消費者獲得瑞安航空的真實機票價格。這對我們雙方都有好處。我仍然認為，我們希望成為歐洲最大的定期航空公司，而且我真的不想因為處理假日產品而分心。在它裝扮成瑞安航空假期之前，我們確實嘗試過這樣做，但實際上我們想做的只是成為一個 OTA——將 OTA 連接到我們的航班系統。他們想向每個人收取過高的費用。因此，我們花了大約 10 年的時間才將它們轉變為我們的思維方式，但你瞧，我認為我們現在正在轉變它們。

And we are seeing strong booking flows coming from the ones who are, as Eddie said, a lot of them I haven't got the pipe fully opened yet, but the first one in, which is Travelfusion, Kiwi, we're seeing very strong growth in those markets. And I think there's a very good business for both Ryanair and for those approved OTAs, particularly because access to Ryanair's lower airfares means you have a much lower price to come a package than you have trying to combine it with the airfares of our much higher fare competitors. But I'm still not a believer in holidays, and I will be very happy at any stage over the next 5 or 10 years to put Ryanair's underlying profitability up against that, I'll say, easyJet is airline and their holiday product.

我們看到強勁的預訂流量來自於那些人，正如埃迪所說，他們中的很多人我還沒有完全打開管道，但第一個進來的人是Travelfusion、Kiwi，我們看到非常多的預訂流量。我認為，對於瑞安航空和那些獲得批准的OTA 來說，這都是一項非常好的業務，特別是因為獲得瑞安航空較低的機票價格意味著您的套餐價格比您嘗試將其與我們的高得多的機票價格結合起來時的價格要低得多競爭對手。但我仍然不相信假期，而且我會很高興在未來5 年或10 年的任何階段將瑞安航空的基本盈利能力與易捷航空相媲美，我會說，易捷航空是航空公司及其假期產品。

Where do we think we're going on fuel hedging? I mean, I think -- we said this recently in the old days, we used to be just flying these, 80%, 90% hedge on a rolling basis. I think we have to be a little bit more clear for going forward. There is more volatility in oil at the moment. We're a bit nervous to be any more than 70%, 75% hedged and I think we're also being a little bit tougher in terms of our hedging.

我們認為我們將在哪裡進行燃料對沖？我的意思是，我認為 - 我們最近說過，我們過去只是滾動進行 80%、90% 對沖。我認為我們必須更加明確才能繼續前進。目前石油波動較大。我們對超過 70%、75% 的對沖感到有點緊張，我認為我們在對沖方面也有點更強硬。

We could hedge the balance of this year in FY '25, but $84, $85, $90 per barrel this morning. But at the moment, we have a hedge price of $79 per barrel, when we see opportunities to add to that and we saw a couple of those in recent weeks. I think we added another 2% or 3% to the 70%, but keeping the average hedge price below 80%. I think it does make how we're nervous that if there's fundamental underlying trend in oil still appears to be strong volume, strong growth in production, OPEC plus countries trying to restrain production by cutting their production, weak demand out of China and the U.S.

我們可以在 25 財年對沖今年的餘額，但今天早上每桶 84 美元、85 美元、90 美元。但目前，我們的對沖價格為每桶 79 美元，當我們看到增加這一價格的機會時，我們最近幾週就看到了一些這樣的機會。我認為我們在 70% 的基礎上又增加了 2% 或 3%，但將平均對沖價格保持在 80% 以下。我認為，如果石油的基本趨勢仍然是強勁的產量、產量的強勁增長、歐佩克及其他國家試圖透過減產來限制產量、中國和美國的需求疲軟，這確實會讓我們感到緊張。

And therefore, the underlying functions will still be that oil price is trending downwards and you have a lot of geopolitical uncertainty keeping it up in the mid-80s. So we're a little bit nervous at the moment of hedging much more -- hedging above $80 a barrel. In case peace breaks out in the Middle East and Ukraine and all the rest of it but we believe that we're certainly far better hedged than any of our competitors in Europe over the next 12 months. Some of our competitors aren't able to hedge. They don't have balance sheet to be able to hedge.

因此，根本原因仍然是石油價格呈下降趨勢，並且存在許多地緣政治不確定性，使其在 80 年代中期保持上漲。因此，我們在進行更多對沖時有點緊張——對沖價格高於每桶 80 美元。萬一中東和烏克蘭以及其他地區出現和平，但我們相信，在未來 12 個月內，我們肯定比歐洲的任何競爭對手都擁有更好的對沖能力。我們的一些競爭對手無法對沖。他們沒有資產負債表來進行避險。

Some of them talk about price caps. But in reality, the price cap is almost the price cap at current fuel prices. I think we are -- I don't think at the moment or certainly for the next year or 2, while we continue to see volatility and a possibility that oil prices might trend downwards. I think we'd be nervous to be hedged up at around 90%, where we think 70% and if we can make a bit of value on closure in hedges, I think that's what we should be. And Neil, I don't know if you want to add or maybe Thomas Fowler might want to add something.

其中一些人談論價格上限。但實際上，價格上限幾乎就是目前燃油價格的價格上限。我認為我們目前或未來一兩年都不會，但我們繼續看到波動性以及油價可能下跌的可能性。我認為我們會對 90% 左右的對沖感到緊張，我們認為是 70%，如果我們能夠在對沖平倉中獲得一點價值，我認為這就是我們應該做的。尼爾，我不知道你是否想補充，或者托馬斯·福勒可能想補充一些東西。

Yes. I would just add that, I mean, you hit the nail on the head when you said a lot of our competitors are not hedging. Just as an over-the-counter product, we're one of the more active players in that market. So to many extents, we can be bidding up the market against ourselves. So we just have to be a little bit more new option how we do it. And equally, we don't want to be -- have too much hedging in place from the time when our competitors are lightly hedged for all the reasons Michael just called out there.

是的。我想補充一點，我的意思是，當您說我們的許多競爭對手沒有進行對沖時，您說得一中要害。就像非處方產品一樣，我們是該市場上最活躍的參與者之一。因此，在很多程度上，我們可能會提高市場的價格來對抗自己。所以我們只需要在做事的方式上有一些新的選擇。同樣，我們不想——當我們的競爭對手出於邁克爾剛剛呼籲的所有原因而輕微對沖時，就採取了太多的對沖。

Tom Fowler?

湯姆·福勒？

I think it's just on that, Michael. I think it is just down to volatility with the underlying oil price at the moment and just insensible about not over-hedging where there's so much volatility.

我想就是這樣，麥可。我認為這只是由於目前基礎油價的波動性，並且在波動性如此之大的情況下不過度對沖是不明智的。

Okay. And Eddie and Jason, any kind of views on the OTA holidays, generally holiday product? Do you please disagree with me, but never that?

好的。 Eddie 和 Jason 對於 OTA 假期、一般假期產品有何看法？你可以不同意我的觀點，但永遠不要這樣嗎？

Mike, Eddie here. Yes, just on the holiday product, like I don't disagree with you on that. But what you can see when you actually get to meet with the OTAs, particularly those that package holidays rather than doing transfer products or selling flights only, is that they have much more agility now and are completely buoyed up by the fact that they've got access to the lowest seat cost in Europe, and they can direct that to the markets that are responding best consumer demand, and that fits in perfectly where you've got the largest airline in Europe with the low seat cost with the widest range of destinations. And they don't have to -- where -- who they're competing with are locking in on hotel costs, much further out. It's not a business that we have to have a huge amount of expertise to do that in-house. I think this model for the limited market that it is, and if they're good at it, let them matter and plug into our seat inventory.

麥克，艾迪在這裡。是的，就假日產品而言，我不同意你的觀點。但是，當您真正與 OTA 會面時，您會發現，尤其是那些提供假期套餐而不是僅提供轉機產品或銷售航班的 OTA，他們現在更加靈活，並且完全因為他們已經獲得歐洲最低的座位成本，他們可以將其引導到響應最佳消費者需求的市場，這完全適合歐洲最大的航空公司，座位成本低，航班範圍最廣。而且他們不必——在哪裡——與他們競爭的人鎖定酒店成本，甚至更遠。這不是一個需要我們擁有大量專業知識才能在內部完成的業務。我認為這個模型適合有限的市場，如果他們擅長的話，讓他們發揮作用並插入我們的座位庫存。

The next question comes from Ruairi Cullinane from RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ruairi Cullinane。

The first question is on disruption and how that is tracking. I was wondering if there was anything you'd like to see this summer to perhaps take some slack out of your crewing ratios beyond summer '24? And then secondly, I understand that it's not your base case expectation, but if MAX-10 deliveries were to slip, are there any contingency plans that you're thinking about?

第一個問題是關於顛覆及其追蹤方式。我想知道今年夏天是否有什麼您希望看到的事情，以便在 24 年夏天之後可以減少您的船員比例？其次，我知道這不是您的基本預期，但如果 MAX-10 交付量下滑，您是否正在考慮任何應急計劃？

Okay. Two of those, I mean, look, we, at this point in time, we're expecting less disruption than we had this time last year. French ATC had 54 days of strikes through the first 6 months of last year over the pension reforms. Thus far, we've had 1 big day of ATC strikes on the 24th and 25th of April. We do expect some more French disruptions in the run-up to the Olympics. We think once the Olympics get started, though, there won't be any ATC disruption as there wasn't during the World Cup in Paris last year. We have been told no disruptions during the Olympics. So we would be reasonably hopeful that there will be less disruptions this summer with ATC. Unfortunately, there's nothing we can do though to reduce our crewing ratios.

好的。我的意思是，其中兩個，我們，在這個時間點，我們預計幹擾會比去年這個時候少。去年前6個月，法國ATC因退休金改革發生了54天的罷工。到目前為止，4 月 24 日和 25 日是 ATC 罷工的重要日子。我們確實預期法國在奧運前夕會出現更多幹擾。不過，我們認為一旦奧運開始，就不會像去年巴黎世界盃期間那樣出現任何空中交通管制中斷。我們被告知奧運期間不會出現任何干擾。因此，我們有理由希望今年夏天 ATC 的干擾會減少。不幸的是，我們無法採取任何措施來減少人員比例。

Our crewing ratios and labor issue would be a bit higher in the first half of the year than we had originally planned because we're 20 aircraft short. We crewed up for the full deliveries and Boeing, you're going to leave 20 aircraft short. So that's not unlike where you could just flex, get rid of pilots or cabin crew. We will take that cost hit this summer. We will keep those extra pilots and cabin crew, which should give us a little bit better recovery capacity, but it would mean a slight step-up in labor cost this summer.

今年上半年我們的機組人員比例和勞動力問題將比我們最初計劃的要高一些，因為我們還缺少 20 架飛機。我們為全部交付做好了準備，而波音公司將缺少 20 架飛機。因此，這與您可以靈活調整、擺脫飛行員或機組人員沒有什麼不同。今年夏天我們將承受這項成本打擊。我們將保留這些額外的飛行員和機組人員，這應該會為我們帶來更好的恢復能力，但這意味著今年夏天的勞動成本將略有上升。

We are negotiating some modest compensation from Boeing, but it won't make up for the revenue and the profit -- the revenue and the cost shortfall, revenue shortfalls and the cost increases that arise as a result of being 20 aircraft short of the 59 aircraft deliveries this summer.

我們正在與波音公司談判一些適度的補償，但這並不能彌補收入和利潤——收入和成本的缺口，收入缺口和成本增加是由於59架飛機少了20架而產生的。

And I forget what was the second part of the question?

我忘了問題的第二部分是什麼？

The plan if the MAX-10 slips.

MAX-10 滑倒時的計畫。

Yes. There won't be that much of -- I mean, obviously, it depends -- at this point in time, we're expecting 17 aircraft in the first half of -- we have no aircraft deliveries in calendar '25 or in calendar '26. So we will get the -- we still have the 29 deliveries to take from Boeing in the first half of 2025, but they were originally scheduled delivery in late 2024. But then we have no deliveries in 2026. That 17 in summer '27 is not really growth, but that was really to take out some of the Lauda aircraft leases that are being returned on some of the older aircraft.

是的。不會有那麼多——我的意思是，顯然，這取決於——目前，我們預計上半年會有 17 架飛機——我們在 25 年或日曆中沒有飛機交付'26。因此，我們將在 2025 年上半年從波音公司獲得 29 架飛機的交付，但它們原定於 2024 年末交付。 ，但這實際上是為了取消一些勞達飛機的租賃，這些租賃是在一些舊飛機上返還的。

We would simply extend some of our older aircraft for a year or 2, but there still won't be any meaningful growth in summer '26 or summer '27. We get the first aircraft for summer '28, and that's when we will restart growth after a 2- or a 3-year period or 2-year, 2-year period through summer '26, summer '27 where we essentially have no growth. And that, to my mind, also plays to the overall capacity constraint story across Europe for the next 2, 3, 4 summers. You have aircraft manufacturer delivery delays, the Airbus groundings with the engine repairs and the fact that Ryanair after we get hopefully, 50 aircraft in summer 2025, then we have no net aircraft for summer '26 or summer '27.

我們只會將一些舊飛機的使用期限延長一到兩年，但在 26 年夏季或 27 年夏季仍然不會有任何有意義的增長。我們在 28 年夏季獲得第一架飛機，那時我們將在 2 年或 3 年期或 2 年、2 年期後重新開始成長，直到 26 年夏季、27 年夏季，我們基本上沒有成長。在我看來，這也影響了歐洲未來 2、3、4 個夏天的整體產能限制。飛機製造商交付延遲、空中巴士因發動機維修而停飛，以及瑞安航空希望在 2025 年夏季獲得 50 架飛機後，我們在 26 年夏季或 27 年夏季沒有淨飛機。

But -- so our contingency, if there's some slippage on that MAX-10s would be, we've already extended some of the Lauda leases from 2024 to 2028 and we would simply buy a couple of our older NGs for another year or 2, there would be a bit of a spike up in maintenance costs as a result of flying older aircraft, and we won't have the benefit for maybe summer 2027 of these new aircraft that carry 20% more profit with 20% SCO.

但是——所以我們的應急措施是，如果 MAX-10 出現一些下滑，我們已經將一些 Lauda 租約從 2024 年延長到 2028 年，我們只需再購買幾架舊 NG 一年或兩年，由於飛行舊飛機，維護成本會略有上升，而且我們可能不會在2027 年夏季受益於這些新飛機的好處，這些新飛機的利潤增加了20%，SCO 為20%。

Next question comes from Savanthi Syth from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savanthi Syth。

Just a couple of quick follow-up questions. I know Eddie mentioned seat growth of 9% over the summer. I was curious if your fleet delivery is consistent with expectations what you expected in the winter quarters. And then just on the Lauda fleet, I was curious with the extension, what is that fleet expectations for the out years? And are you still expecting to get out of that in the next 5 years?

只是幾個快速的後續問題。我知道艾迪提到夏天的座位數增加了 9%。我很好奇你們的車隊交付情況是否符合你們對冬季季度的預期。然後就勞達機隊而言，我對延期感到好奇，該機隊對未來幾年的期望是什麼？您是否仍期望在未來 5 年內擺脫這種困境？

Okay, Eddie will take the first half of that credit. I'll do the Lauda one first. So Lauda plead generally, we've extended our -- we've done, the Lauda team that does terrific job, so we've extended 3 of those aircraft leases that were due to terminate in 2025 or 2024. We've extended those out for 4 years, but without any increase in the lease cost, which I think is key. Those are very favorable leases in the current marketplace. I think some of the lessors want to keep Ryanair on their books as a customer -- the Ryanair Group as a customer, and therefore, we're willing to extend out those leases for 4 years at -- without any increase in what our below-market monthly lease rentals.

好吧，艾迪將獲得前半部的功勞。我會先做勞達的。因此，勞達一般性地懇求，我們已經延長了我們的——我們已經完成了，勞達團隊做得非常出色，所以我們延長了原定於2025 年或2024 年終止的3 架飛機的租賃。我們已經延長了這些飛機的租賃期。這些在當前市場上是非常有利的租賃。我認為一些出租人希望將瑞安航空作為客戶（即瑞安航空集團作為客戶）保留在他們的賬簿上，因此，我們願意將這些租約延長 4 年，並且不會增加我們的以下租金： -市場月租租金。

We are happy to extend those aircraft. We would like to replace the Lauda A320 fleet with more Airbus Aircraft but at the moment in the current marketplace that looks unlikely. Now it would be unusual if there is some downturn or some event between now and 2028, for the moment, we have extended those aircraft beyond what we originally thought, we original thought we've returned those aircraft in '25 and '26. That was 2028. That takes us beyond -- well beyond the first of the MAX-10 deliveries. And -- but we will still look for opportunities to see if we can grow Lauda -- the Lauda Airbus fleet, all replaced the Lauda airbus fleet with the Airbus aircraft. And fleet growth for summer '24 what orders have been if we had taken all of the Boeing -- 59 Boeing aircraft deliveries this summer.

我們很高興延長這些飛機。我們希望用更多的空中巴士飛機取代勞達 A320 機隊，但目前在當前市場上這似乎不太可能。現在，如果從現在到2028 年之間出現一些低迷或某些事件，那將是不尋常的，目前，我們已經將這些飛機擴展到了我們最初設想的範圍之外，我們最初認為我們已經在25 年和26 年歸還了這些飛機。那是 2028 年。而且 - 但我們仍然會尋找機會看看我們是否可以發展勞達 - 勞達空中巴士機隊，全部用空中巴士飛機取代了勞達空中巴士機隊。如果我們今年夏天接收了所有波音飛機——24 年夏季交付的 59 架波音飛機，那麼 24 年夏季的機隊成長情況是怎樣的。

Well, we're just going to do just short of 140 million seats just approximately 9%. So it would have been -- it has been marginally up on another 0.5%, I suppose, if we've got the full deliveries. But it's -- so...

嗯，我們的座位數將不到 1.4 億，約佔 9%。所以，如果我們全部交付的話，我想，它會小幅上漲 0.5%。但這是——所以…

If you take it over the full year, Savi, we would have grown, we would have delivered 205 million passengers at slightly lower labor cost because we have had the full fleet in which we're proving this summer. Instead, we're looking at a full year of somewhere between 190 million to 200 million passengers. Some of that growth will take place in Q3 and in Q4, which is not the most profitable time of the year to be delivering growth, but we have the aircraft and we have the crews, it will make sense for us to continue to expand. I think you'll see a little bit more growth from us in the second half of the year, which would be good for volumes, but not necessarily good for profitability.

如果你把它放在全年裡，薩維，我們將會成長，我們將以略低的勞動力成本運送 2.05 億名乘客，因為我們擁有完整的機隊，我們將在今年夏天證明這一點。相反，我們預計全年旅客數量將在 1.9 億至 2 億之間。其中一些增長將發生在第三季度和第四季度，這不是一年中實現增長最有利可圖的時間，但我們有飛機，有機組人員，對我們來說繼續擴張是有意義的。我認為今年下半年你會看到我們有更多的成長，這對銷售有好處，但不一定有利於獲利能力。

Next question comes from Conor Dwyer from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的康納·德懷爾。

First question is for Neil, back on the CapEx question about it being pulled forward to FY '25. And I think the indication for FY '26 is unchanged at EUR 1 billion, maybe EUR 1.1 billion. And I was just wondering, is there any indication you can give us for the FY '27 year of what that might roughly look like ahead of -- is that ramping up getting into FY '28?

第一個問題是問 Neil 的，回到關於將其推遲到 25 財年的資本支出問題。我認為 26 財年的指標維持在 10 億歐元不變，也許是 11 億歐元。我只是想知道，您是否可以向我們透露 27 財年的情況，以及進入 28 財年的情況是否會加速？

And the second question is on the buyback. Is it too early to say if another one will be announced in November? I was just wondering, is there maybe an indication that we could use in the next 2 to 3 years of like a target net cash, net debt level that you think is right for the business.

第二個問題是關於回購。現在說是否會在 11 月宣布另一項計劃是否還為時過早？我只是想知道，是否有跡象表明我們可以在未來 2 到 3 年內使用您認為適合業務的目標淨現金、淨債務水平。

Neil, do you want to take first about the CapEx for FY '27?

Neil，您想先了解 27 財年的資本支出嗎？

Yes. I mean we're going to see it increase a bit, Conor, as we start to take the first of the deliveries, hopefully, off the MAX-10s into the spring of 2027, and we start to ramp up on the PDPs. But it won't increase meaningfully. It really a year or 2 before that number starts to go up. I wouldn't want to put a number into the market, yes, at this stage. I mean you have next year and you have this year, which is probably sufficient. But it will start to ramp up. You're talking EUR 300 or EUR 400 million give or take from the following year.

是的。我的意思是，康納，我們將看到它增加，因為我們希望在 2027 年春季開始從 MAX-10 開始交付第一批，並且我們開始增加 PDP。但它不會有意義地增加。確實要過一兩年，這個數字才會開始上升。是的，現階段我不想將數字投入市場。我的意思是，你有明年，也有今年，這可能就夠了。但它將開始加速。你說的是下一年的 300 歐元或 4 億歐元的給予或索取。

So on the buyback, look, again, we continue to be strongly cash generative. But I don't think we would want to commit to anything or the Board wouldn't want to commit to anything other than, look, when we have surplus cash, it will be returned to shareholders. There will be a CapEx holiday for the next 2 years as we move out of the Boeing delivery. But we have 2 big bond repayments in the next 2 years. We have to repay EUR 850 million in September 2025. And then we have a EUR 1.2 billion bond in May 2026.

因此，在回購方面，我們持續保持強勁的現金產生能力。但我認為我們不想承諾任何事情，或者董事會也不想承諾任何事情，除了，看，當我們有剩餘現金時，它將返還給股東。當我們不再交付波音飛機時，未來兩年將有一個資本支出假期。但未來兩年我們將償還兩次大筆債券。我們必須在 2025 年 9 月償還 8.5 億歐元。然後我們在 2026 年 5 月擁有 12 億歐元的債券。

So these are big debts, but we are committed to repay those because of the rising cost of interest cost, it makes sense to repay those. Once we're down to that, I think you we would, as a company be concerned to maintain a reasonable cash fund of somewhere between EUR 3 billion and EUR 4 billion. We have got to be cognizant that there will be another downturn, whether we don't know when it will come or what will cause it, but there will be another downturn. It is a capital-intensive cyclical business and most of our money is made by going into these things like COVID, like wars, terrorism, in a strong cash position so that we can renegotiate airport deals, aircraft, contracts, et cetera, et cetera, from a position of strength during a downturn.

所以這些都是大額債務，但我們致力於償還這些債務，因為利息成本不斷上升，償還這些債務是有意義的。一旦我們做到這一點，我想作為一家公司，我們會關心維持 30 億歐元到 40 億歐元之間的合理現金基金。我們必須認識到，還會有另一次低迷，無論我們不知道它何時到來，也不知道什麼會導致它，但總會有另一次低迷。這是一項資本密集的週期性業務，我們的大部分資金都是透過進入新冠疫情、戰爭、恐怖主義等領域來賺取的，並擁有充足的現金狀況，這樣我們就可以重新談判機場交易、飛機、合約等。

The world is full of airlines, were out there ordering aircraft at the peak, paying peak pricing for aircraft. Thankfully, we don't do that. We already have more than 360 aircraft deliveries well priced at the moment to take us, will deliver organic growth out to the mid-2030s. But I think we will want to -- when we pay down that debt, we will see engaged, I think, in consistent shareholder returns whether that ordinary dividends or share buybacks for the foreseeable future until there's another downturn. And when there is another downturn, we will -- it will make sense for us not to do share buybacks.

世界上有很多航空公司，他們在高峰期訂購飛機，為飛機支付高峰價格。值得慶幸的是，我們不這麼做。目前，我們已經交付了 360 多架飛機，價格合理，將在 2030 年代中期實現有機成長。但我認為，當我們償還債務時，我認為，我們將看到持續的股東回報，無論是在可預見的未來的普通股息還是股票回購，直到另一次經濟低迷為止。當再次出現低迷時，我們將—不進行股票回購對我們來說是有意義的。

I would hope that underlying profitability won't be affected, but it probably will be in which case the dividend will be affected as well. But I would think we will continue to operate a conservative balance sheet, pay down debt. And then -- and again, Neil, you feel free to come. And I think we want to go into the next downturn with somewhere between EUR 3 billion and EUR 4 billion in gross and net cash.

我希望基本獲利能力不會受到影響，但在這種情況下，股息可能也會受到影響。但我認為我們將繼續維持保守的資產負債表，償還債務。然後——尼爾，你可以隨意來。我認為我們希望在進入下一次經濟衰退時擁有 30 億至 40 億歐元的總現金和淨現金。

Yes. I'd have a slightly wider range. EUR 3.5 billion to EUR 5 billion would be where I feel comfortable, we're in that range at the moment.

是的。我的範圍稍微寬一些。 35 億歐元到 50 億歐元是我覺得舒服的範圍，我們目前就在這個範圍內。

The next question comes from Neil Glynn from AIR Control Tower.

下一個問題來自空中控制塔台的尼爾‧格林。

Just one quick one for me left. Just following your fourth quarter, it seems like a very prevalent theme across the sector that the seasonality of earnings has changed for everybody with a higher cost base in the low season. I'm just interested, is this a potential opportunity for you to reflect that in airport third-party handler deals? Or are there any other structural changes to the cost picture that might include as a result of this?

我只剩下一張快的了。就在第四季度之後，整個行業似乎有一個非常普遍的主題，即對於淡季成本基礎較高的每個人來說，收益的季節性都發生了變化。我只是感興趣，這是否是您在機場第三方處理商交易中反映這一點的潛在機會？或因此可能導致成本狀況發生任何其他結構性變化？

I don't think -- we don't see -- at the moment, if you stand back and look at it from a structural point of view, I think there's a lot of inflation built into the industry across Europe at the moment. There's a lot of this inflation on the pilot side, less so on the cabin crew, but nevertheless, we're seeing above inflation pay settlement among a number of our competitors. Airports, particularly those airports where they have pricing power, you are seeing handling costs and airport fees rising significantly, mainly in our competitors' airports. We went through COVID, we negotiated long-term extensions of most of our major airports, cost feels we have -- we self-handled at a number of the other bigger airports to double stand it. So we're insulated from a lot of that cost inflation. But there's still that there is going to be -- there is some cost inflation on the labor side coming through the model in the next couple of years.

我不認為——我們沒有看到——如果你退後一步，從結構性的角度來看的話，我認為目前整個歐洲的行業都存在嚴重的通貨膨脹。飛行員方面的通膨率很高，而機組人員的通膨率較低，但儘管如此，我們還是看到許多競爭對手的薪資結算高於通膨率。機場，特別是那些有定價權的機場，您會看到處理成本和機場費用大幅上漲，主要是在我們競爭對手的機場。我們經歷了新冠疫情，我們就大多數主要機場的長期延期進行了談判，我們有成本感——我們在其他一些較大的機場自行處理，以雙重支持。因此，我們免受大量成本通膨的影響。但未來幾年，透過該模型，勞動力方面仍會出現一些成本通膨。

I would be reasonably sanguine about that in the Ryanair model. The critical thing for us is that the cost gap between us and our competitors is widening significantly. And that is labor inflation among our competitors is materially higher than it is in Ryanair. The cost of financing is materially higher among our competitors than it is in Ryanair. And aircraft and fleet costs are materially higher among our competitors than they are in Ryanair. And so I think we will see a widening cost gap between us and our competitors across Europe in the next couple of years. Particularly, if we take more delivery of Boeing MAX aircraft, where we're carrying at the moment, 4% more passengers, burning 16% less fuel. That will be another further material cost advantage for us.

我對瑞安航空模型的這一點相當樂觀。對我們來說最重要的是我們與競爭對手之間的成本差距正在顯著擴大。也就是說，我們競爭對手的勞動力通膨率遠高於瑞安航空。我們競爭對手的融資成本明顯高於瑞安航空。我們的競爭對手的飛機和機隊成本明顯高於瑞安航空。因此，我認為未來幾年我們將看到我們與歐洲競爭對手之間的成本差距不斷擴大。特別是，如果我們接收更多波音 MAX 飛機（目前我們運載的飛機），乘客數量將增加 4%，燃油消耗將減少 16%。這對我們來說將是另一個進一步的材料成本優勢。

We see some of our competitors taking new aircraft, but those aircraft are coming in at very high prices at market rates, and that is resulting in significant widening in the aircraft ownership costs. You'll see it in our investor slide, Slide 4. I would go back to Slide 4 here, a lot of our presentations over the roadshow the next week, the gap between us and the competition is widening materially. And if there's a little bit of labor cost inflation in our model for the next year or 2, I think that's fair. Our people work hard and they are entitled to see some rewards, the reward from their work. We will continue to be disciplined though on cost. We will face down some strikes in the next couple of years, although we have reasonably good relations at the moment, our union partners and our labor teams across Europe.

我們看到我們的一些競爭對手購買了新飛機，但這些飛機的市場價格非常高，這導致飛機擁有成本大幅上升。您將在我們的投資者幻燈片（幻燈片4）中看到這一點。大幅擴大。如果我們的模型中未來一兩年出現一點勞動成本通膨，我認為這是公平的。我們的人民努力工作，他們有權獲得一些回報，即他們工作的回報。我們將繼續在成本方面遵守紀律。儘管目前我們與歐洲各地的工會夥伴和勞工團隊的關係相當良好，但未來幾年我們將面臨一些罷工。

But everybody will be looking at the comp settlement in the states. What easyJet do with their pilot pay where pilot have rejected a 20% pay increase. And I think we will continue to be cognizant of that. But I don't see any structural gains at the moment in the current marketplace. The next round of structural gains will take place when there's another downturn, and we will go into that downturn hopefully, with zero debt, strong balance sheet and the ability to do better deals.

但每個人都會關注各州的補償協議。如果飛行員拒絕加薪 20%，易捷航空將如何處理飛行員的薪水。我認為我們將繼續認識到這一點。但我目前沒有看到當前市場有任何結構性收益。下一輪結構性收益將在另一個經濟低迷時期出現，我們將有望以零債務、強勁的資產負債表和進行更好交易的能力進入經濟低迷時期。

I think if there's one structural area, again, it is still the fact that we are one of the few airlines across Europe that's able to deliver airport growth. And we saw that as recently as last week when we announced the closure of the 3 aircraft Bordeaux base in November. The new routing probably were fending off calls of 15 or 20 airports, all of whom were looking for those aircraft this winter (inaudible). The deals are getting better ready is also points to in a lot of markets initially, now the regions are scrapping the municipal tanks, which is a significant structural change in the Italian marketplace. And we are still seeing significant growth opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe.

我認為，如果有一個結構領域的話，那就是我們是歐洲少數幾家能夠實現機場成長的航空公司之一。就在上週，我們宣布 11 月關閉 3 架飛機波爾多基地時，我們就看到了這一點。新航線可能會避開 15 或 20 個機場的呼叫，這些機場都在今年冬天尋找這些飛機（聽不清楚）。最初，許多市場的交易準備得越來越好，現在這些地區正在廢棄市政水箱，這是義大利市場的重大結構性變化。我們仍然在中歐和東歐看到巨大的成長機會。

We are welcomed, there's numerous management changes, for example, a lot of the Polish airports with the new government in place, within that new government is much more European looks towards process in Europe. And I think we'll want to significantly increase traffic growth that we had at the Polish airports. But other than that, I don't see anything structural. Neil, is there anything you want to point to?

我們受到歡迎，有許多管理方面的變化，例如，許多波蘭機場都有新政府就位，新政府對歐洲的進程更加歐洲化。我認為我們希望大幅增加波蘭機場的客流量成長。但除此之外，我看不到任何結構性的東西。尼爾，你有什麼要指出的嗎？

No, not particularly, Michael. I think we've locked down most of the key costs and just jump on the opportunities as we see them.

不，不特別，麥可。我認為我們已經鎖定了大部分關鍵成本，並抓住了我們看到的機會。

Our final question today comes from Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays.

今天我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯洛本伯格。

You've won several legal cases on state 8 against derival yet not a lot seem to have happened. Do you expect to get anything constructive out of those victories? And then on the OTAs, you've won a lot of the move, but eDreams is a standout. Do you think they will, in time, roll over enjoying the others and play with you nicely?

您已經贏得了幾起針對 8 州衍生品的法律訴訟，但似乎沒有發生太多事情。您希望從這些勝利中獲得任何建設性的成果嗎？然後在 OTA 上，您已經贏得了許多機會，但 eDreams 是其中的佼佼者。你認為他們最終會和其他人一起翻身並和你愉快地玩耍嗎？

I think that the question we will give (inaudible) to Juliusz, will you take that? And against, I don't dominate, I might ask Eddie Wilson who's closer to the discussion of the OTAs, what do you think the eDreams are likely to do? So 2 year state 8 cases.

我認為我們將向 Juliusz 提出的問題（聽不清楚），你會接受嗎？反對，我不占主導地位，我可能會問埃迪威爾遜誰更接近OTA的討論，你認為eDreams可能會做什麼？所以 2 年陳述 8 例。

Thanks, Michael. So far, the EU courts have overturned over half of all the state 8 that was granted to airlines in Europe during COVID, so over EUR 20 billion, which is quite remarkable. Many of those decisions are under appeal, though, either by the commission or by the airline that was involved. So while appeals are pending, there will be no recovery. At the same time, we are in regular contact with European Commission, telling them how they should go about recovery and giving them some ideas as to how to calculate the damage that was done to competition and what should be recovered. In some cases, that may also mean retrospective, not surrenders, where those were not imposed initiatives. So this is not over. It will probably take another few years. So please have some patience and keep tuning into those calls, and we're giving you -- we'll keep giving you updates.

謝謝，麥可。到目前為止，歐盟法院已經推翻了新冠疫情期間授予歐洲航空公司的全部國家 8 的一半以上，即超過 200 億歐元，這是相當了不起的。不過，其中許多決定都在由委員會或相關航空公司提出上訴。因此，儘管上訴仍在審理中，但不會有任何恢復。同時，我們與歐盟委員會保持定期聯繫，告訴他們應該如何進行恢復，並就如何計算對競爭造成的損害以及應該恢復什麼提供一些想法。在某些情況下，這也可能意味著追溯，而不是放棄，因為這些並不是強加的措施。所以這還沒結束。可能還需要幾年的時間。因此，請耐心等待，繼續收聽這些電話，我們將繼續向您提供最新消息。

Thanks, Juliusz. And Eddie OTAs eDreams?

謝謝，朱利葉斯。那埃迪 OTA 的 eDreams 呢？

Yes. I mean this market is consolidating. And as I said earlier, there's almost some relief from the OTAs that we've dealt with in terms of having a stable sort of business model to grow on. And I think eDreams don't have any USP really because if they're going to put themselves out of the largest airline in Europe. And the only model that they have is the sort of loyalty-type programs that you've talked about area, which are not loyalty programs, circa way of price gouging, like it is now more transparent markets becoming more regularized and I think that they'll eventually the leader have to get -- the leader have to come on board or get smaller if they want to access to see the inventory from Ryanair.

是的。我的意思是這個市場正在整合。正如我之前所說，我們所處理過的 OTA 在擁有穩定的業務模式來發展方面幾乎讓我們鬆了一口氣。我認為 eDreams 確實沒有任何 USP，因為如果他們打算將自己排除在歐洲最大的航空公司之外。他們擁有的唯一模式是您所談論的那種忠誠度類型的計劃，這不是忠誠度計劃，大約是哄抬價格的方式，就像現在更加透明的市場變得更加規範一樣，我認為他們如果領導者想要查看瑞安航空的庫存，那麼最終領導者必須加入或縮小規模。

Just one further point there. Just (inaudible) it's the American market this year, I'm reliably informed coming in is just close to 1.5% of our passengers and we're making it increasingly easy for them to get their boarding cards before so they all have to queue at the Visa desk. So it's all good news.

還有一點。只是（聽不清楚）今年是美國市場，據我可靠消息，進來的旅客只有接近 1.5%，我們正在讓他們變得越來越容易獲得登機證，所以他們都必須在簽證櫃檯。所以這都是好消息。

Yes. And I would just add that I don't believe the eDreams model is sustainable. I can -- we are being much more aggressive with our communicating videos explaining the eDreams pricing scams and particularly eDreams Prime pricing scams. We think some consumer agency, whether it's got be in Italy or in Spain or in Brussels is going to move on the eDreams. And I think the eDreams model is fundamentally broken. All of your competitors, whether that's loveholidays or Kiwi or the other OTAs have direct access to Ryanair's lowest fares. And all you're doing is paying some intermediate screen scraper to scrap our fares and then you're scamming consumers by (inaudible) those fares and those ancillary services.

是的。我想補充一點，我不相信 eDreams 模式是可持續的。我可以——我們會更加積極地透過影片來解釋 eDreams 定價騙局，特別是 eDreams Prime 定價騙局。我們認為一些消費者機構，無論是在義大利、西班牙或布魯塞爾，都將在 eDreams 上採取行動。我認為 eDreams 模式從根本上被打破了。您的所有競爭對手，無論是 loveholidays、Kiwi 或其他 OTA，都可以直接獲得 Ryanair 的最低票價。你所做的就是支付一些中間螢幕抓取費用來取消我們的票價，然後你通過（聽不清楚）這些票價和輔助服務來欺騙消費者。

The eDreams model is going to dwindle pretty dramatically and pretty quickly because they won't be price competitor with the other approved OTAs in the marketplace. If I had my way, I would certainly not want to do a deal with eDreams. I think they should be roasted by the consumer agencies. But because we're a big airline, we would have to treat everybody equally. But there's no way we're going to do any deal with eDreams. It doesn't involve them ending this prime scam and the overcharging that's going on that the overcharging and they're the only ones who are not engaged.

eDreams 模型將很快大幅減少，因為它們無法與市場上其他經批准的 OTA 進行價格競爭。如果我願意的話，我肯定不會想和 eDreams 做交易。我認為他們應該受到消費者機構的批評。但因為我們是一家大型航空公司，所以我們必須平等對待每個人。但我們不可能與 eDreams 進行任何交易。這並不涉及他們結束這個主要騙局和正在發生的過度收費，而且他們是唯一沒有參與的人。

We've had a meeting with them back in, I think, March, Darek, correct me if I'm wrong, and we haven't heard back to them say. So to my mind, we have taken a conscious of statement, they're going to keep scamming people, they're going to keep overcharging them, and we were mystified on their call that they were able to highlight the profitability of eDreams Prime and how eDreams Prime was producing most of their profit, no grade to price, given that it's a complete scam. And we have exposed it, it's very interesting on their videos. We put up the prices at the Ryanair airfares and these kind of mythical discounts that eDreams is offering under the Prime thing.

我想，我們已經和他們開過一次會，March，Darek，如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我們還沒有聽到他們的回覆。所以在我看來，我們有意識地聲明，他們會繼續欺騙人們，他們會繼續向他們收取過高的費用，我們對他們的電話感到困惑，因為他們能夠強調 eDreams Prime 的盈利能力和eDreams Prime 是如何產生大部分利潤的，沒有價格等級，因為這完全是一個騙局。我們已經曝光了，他們的影片非常有趣。我們列出了瑞安航空的機票價格以及 eDreams 在 Prime 服務下提供的神秘折扣。

So we think it's not a question whether eDreams will sign up for the approved OTAs. We need the consumer authorities are going to move on eDreams sooner rather than later, and it's something that they should be moving on. It's a complete anti-consumer scam.

因此，我們認為 eDreams 是否會註冊已批准的 OTA 並不是問題。我們需要消費者當局盡快推進 eDreams，這是他們應該繼續前進的事情。這完全是個反消費者的騙局。

Okay. Maxine, I think that is all the questions we have. As I said, we thank you, everybody, for participating in the call. We have a full roadshow underway across the North America, Europe, Ireland and the U.K. If anybody wants a meeting, we'll be happy to facilitate it. You can make contact with the brokers Citi, Goodbody, Davy, or through our IR function, as you know, Peter Larkin, who heads up the IR team. We'd be happy to organize a meeting at substate during this week to extend the roadshow.

好的。瑪克辛，我想這就是我們所有的問題。正如我所說，我們感謝大家參與這次電話會議。我們正在北美、歐洲、愛爾蘭和英國進行全面的路演。您可以與花旗、Goodbody、Davy 等經紀商聯繫，或透過我們的 IR 職能部門（如您所知，IR 團隊負責人 Peter Larkin）聯繫。我們很樂意在本週內在州內組織一次會議以延長路演。

And other than that, I would say, look, we are continuing to grow organically, pricing may be a little bit softer than something that we had originally expected. But that's not disappointing even though we come off 2 summers where pricing was up 20%. And -- but I don't believe the medium-term story has changed one way. There will still be significant capacity constraints across Europe. We will have some modest growth through the summer '24 and summer '25, and then we have no growth in '26 or '27. We believe we -- as long as there's nothing untoward or unforeseen, we will generate very strong cash flows over the next couple of years. And we will, I hope, be able to continue to look after our people, pay down our debt, fund all of our CapEx from our internally generated cash flow and still leave some funds there for ordinary dividends and for the occasional share buyback.

除此之外，我想說，看，我們正在繼續有機成長，定價可能比我們最初預期的要軟一些。但這並不令人失望，儘管我們經歷了兩個夏天價格上漲 20% 的情況。而且——但我不認為中期情況發生了任何改變。整個歐洲仍將面臨嚴重的產能限制。我們將在 24 年夏季和 25 年夏季出現一些溫和的增長，然後在 26 年或 27 年就沒有增長。我們相信，只要沒有任何意外或不可預見的情況，我們將在未來幾年產生非常強勁的現金流。我希望，我們將能夠繼續照顧我們的員工，償還我們的債務，用我們內部產生的現金流為我們所有的資本支出提供資金，並仍然留下一些資金用於普通股息和偶爾的股票回購。

So thank you very much, everybody. Thank you for your support, and we look forward to seeing or speaking to you later on this week.

非常感謝大家。感謝您的支持，我們期待本週晚些時候見到您或與您交談。

Okay. Thanks, Maxine. We can end it there.

好的。謝謝，瑪克辛。我們可以到此結束。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。