Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded and that 1 hour has been allocated for the call, including the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) I'll now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次通話正在錄音，並且已為通話分配了 1 小時，包括問答環節。 （操作員說明）我現在將電話轉給 Sunrun 投資者關係高級副總裁 Patrick Jobin。請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，凱文。在我們開始之前，請注意，我們將在本次電話會議中發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大和不利的差異。請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。

Please also note, these statements are being made as of today and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

另請注意，這些聲明是從今天起發布的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. Paul Dickson, Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer, is also on the call for our Q&A session. A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript, including Q&A will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

今天參加電話會議的是 Sunrun 首席執行官 Mary Powell；以及 Sunrun 首席財務官 Danny Abajian。 Sunrun 首席營收官 Paul Dickson 也參加了我們的問答環節。 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了演示文稿以及補充材料。今天電話會議的音頻重播以及今天準備好的言論和文字記錄副本（包括問答）將在電話會議後不久發佈到 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上。現在讓我把電話轉給瑪麗。

Thank you, Patrick. Sunrun's team delivered a strong quarter. Our disciplined margin-focused growth strategy continues to position the company well for long-term success and generating cash. This quarter, we beat by a large margin, our volume guidance for solar energy capacity installs, but more importantly, we are rapidly accelerating storage adoption, growing our lead as America's clean energy company, one that delivers a superior value proposition to customers and creates multiple value streams for our shareholders.

謝謝你，帕特里克。 Sunrun 的團隊取得了強勁的季度業績。我們嚴格的、以利潤為中心的增長戰略繼續為公司奠定了長期成功和創造現金的良好地位。本季度，我們大幅超過了太陽能裝機量指導，但更重要的是，我們正在迅速加速存儲采用，擴大我們作為美國清潔能源公司的領先地位，為客戶提供卓越的價值主張，並創造為我們的股東提供多種價值流。

We installed more than 100-megawatt hours of storage capacity in Q2, growing 35% compared to the prior year, and we now have more than 900-megawatt hours of storage capacity installed across the country. We are accelerating our pace. Our storage offerings provide customers enhanced value and generate significantly higher margins for Sunrun today while providing a foundation for considerable monetization in the years to come.

第二季度我們安裝的儲能容量超過100兆瓦時，比去年同期增長35%，目前我們在全國范圍內安裝的儲能容量超過900兆瓦時。我們正在加快步伐。我們的存儲產品為客戶提供了更高的價值，並為 Sunrun 帶來了顯著更高的利潤，同時為未來幾年的可觀盈利奠定了基礎。

Our strong attachment rate was nearly 18% of our installations across the country in the second quarter and we expect this percentage to continue to increase rapidly. In the second quarter, we grew our customer base to nearly 870,000 customers, which represents 6.2 gigawatts of installed solar capacity. We added approximately 40,000 customers this quarter, 7,000 was storage, with an improving net subscriber value of over $12,000, resulting in total value generated of nearly $400 million.

第二季度，我們的強大附著率佔全國安裝量的近 18%，我們預計這一百分比將繼續快速增長。第二季度，我們的客戶群增長至近 870,000 名，相當於 6.2 吉瓦的太陽能裝機容量。本季度我們增加了大約 40,000 個客戶，其中 7,000 個是存儲客戶，淨用戶價值增加了​​超過 12,000 美元，產生的總價值接近 4 億美元。

Our rapidly accelerating storage attachment rate presents a powerful opportunity to grow our clean energy generation business by providing at-scale power plant capabilities across America. This quarter, we again set the all-time industry record for installed solar energy capacity. This scale combined with a rapidly increasing storage attachment rate, presents a powerful utility scale generation solution. We grew net earning assets by over $400 million and increased our total cash position by $78 million compared to the first quarter. These strong financial and operating results are possible because of our experienced committed team who is executing on our disciplined margin-focused growth strategy.

我們快速加快的存儲附加率為我們通過在美國各地提供大規模發電廠能力來發展我們的清潔能源發電業務提供了強大的機會。本季度，我們再次創下太陽能裝機容量的歷史行業紀錄。這種規模與快速增長的存儲附加率相結合，提供了強大的公用事業規模發電解決方案。與第一季度相比，我們的淨利潤資產增加了 4 億多美元，現金頭寸總額增加了 7800 萬美元。這些強勁的財務和運營業績之所以能夠實現，是因為我們經驗豐富、忠誠的團隊正在執行我們嚴格的、以利潤為中心的增長戰略。

Okay. Turning to the topic I know is on everyone's mind, California. The most important news is that we are smashing our expectations for increasing the adoption of higher margin storage offerings in California and nationally. In California, we have increased our battery attachment rate of both backup batteries and our Shift product to over 80%. All of our battery products store solar energy when it's generated and dispatch it when it's most valuable. Over 1/3 of our newly sold battery systems also performed home backup, a doubling since the start of the year. The remaining 2/3 of new battery customers represent our Shift product in California, which offers a strong value proposition for our savings-focused customers.

好的。談到我知道每個人都在想的話題，加州。最重要的消息是，我們正在打破我們對在加州和全國范圍內增加採用更高利潤的存儲產品的預期。在加利福尼亞州，我們將備用電池和 Shift 產品的電池安裝率提高到 80% 以上。我們所有的電池產品都會在太陽能產生時存儲太陽能，並在太陽能最有價值時進行調度。我們新銷售的電池系統中有超過 1/3 還具有家庭備用功能，這一數字自年初以來增加了一倍。剩下 2/3 的新電池客戶是我們在加利福尼亞州的 Shift 產品，它為我們注重節約的客戶提供了強大的價值主張。

Let me be perfectly clear. Both storage products, battery backup and Shift provides superior value to Sunrun than solar-only customers did prior to the California policy transition. Nationally, we are seeing storage attachment rates for new sales in excess of 30%. Our leading position in providing a backup storage offering to customers generates superior and expanding margins and market share gain opportunity.

讓我說得非常清楚。與加州政策過渡之前僅使用太陽能的客戶相比，存儲產品、電池備份和 Shift 為 Sunrun 提供了更高的價值。在全國范圍內，我們看到新銷售的存儲附加率超過 30%。我們在為客戶提供備份存儲產品方面的領先地位帶來了卓越且不斷擴大的利潤和市場份額的獲得機會。

As this higher mix of storage sales flow through to installations over the next 2 quarters, we expect strong increases in net subscriber values and total value generated that will offset impacts from lower near-term California volume.

隨著未來兩個季度更高的存儲銷售組合轉向安裝，我們預計淨用戶價值和產生的總價值將強勁增長，這將抵消近期加州銷量下降的影響。

Training sales representatives to sell under the new policy construct has taken time. We are seeing significant increases in sales recently as sales representatives become proficient explaining the new product opportunities and selling a bundle with up to 80% higher customer value than before. Because of this learning process and because we are rapidly increasing our mix of storage, which takes longer to permit and install.

培訓銷售代表在新政策結構下進行銷售需要時間。最近，我們看到銷售額顯著增長，因為銷售代表能夠熟練地解釋新產品機會並銷售捆綁產品，客戶價值比以前高出 80%。由於這個學習過程，也因為我們正在迅速增加存儲組合，這需要更長的時間來允許和安裝。

Q3 is a transition period. We are still growing at a strong pace. Q3 installations will still be up year-over-year with a more profitable mix and our outlook for the second half is growing 9% year-over-year in volume with even higher growth in value generated.

Q3是一個過渡期。我們仍在以強勁的速度增長。第三季度安裝量仍將同比增長，利潤組合更加豐厚，我們對下半年的展望是銷量同比增長 9%，產生的價值增長甚至更高。

I am confident we will look back at this moment as another proof point of how we strengthen our market position by remaining customer-focused, disciplined and methodical when the broader market is faced with a challenge. With California's market massively underpenetrated, we expect sales will accelerate further as our teams continue to optimize how they sell our offerings in the new environment and demand continues to build following the dramatic pull forward we saw earlier in the year leading up to the transition.

我相信，我們將回顧這一時刻，將其視為在更廣泛的市場面臨挑戰時，我們如何通過保持以客戶為中心、遵守紀律和有條不紊來鞏固我們的市場地位的另一個證據。由於加州市場的滲透率嚴重不足，我們預計銷售將進一步加速，因為我們的團隊將繼續優化在新環境中銷售我們產品的方式，並且在今年早些時候我們看到過渡前的急劇增長之後，需求將繼續增加。

Despite slower-than-anticipated sales in May, sales in June and July ramped at strong month-over-month rates in our direct business. We are down about 1/3 compared to last year in July, with our direct business performing significantly better and are seeing strong week-over-week improvements exiting the month. As consumers adjust to the new regulatory environment and understand the value proposition that we are able to offer, I am confident this trend will continue and we are on track for strong year-over-year growth in California.

儘管 5 月份的銷售低於預期，但我們的直接業務 6 月和 7 月的銷售額環比強勁增長。與去年 7 月相比，我們的業務量下降了約 1/3，但我們的直接業務表現明顯更好，並且在 7 月後每週都出現了強勁的改善。隨著消費者適應新的監管環境並了解我們能夠提供的價值主張，我相信這種趨勢將持續下去，我們有望在加州實現強勁的同比增長。

While California gets lots of attention, it's important to note the benefits of running a diversified business, which operates in many markets. Sales activities outside of California have been robust, growing by 25% in Q2 compared to the prior year, and this growth rate has been maintained through June and July. The bottom line is demand remains robust outside of California. California is improving and we are offsetting the near-term volume dip in California with a mix of much higher-margin offerings. Our growth and value creation story is on track.

雖然加州受到廣泛關注，但重要的是要注意經營在許多市場開展業務的多元化企業的好處。加州以外的銷售活動一直強勁，第二季度與去年同期相比增長了 25%，並且這一增長率一直保持到 6 月和 7 月。最重要的是，加州以外地區的需求仍然強勁。加州正在改善，我們正在通過利潤率更高的產品組合來抵消加州近期銷量下降的影響。我們的成長和價值創造故事正在步入正軌。

Shifting to an update on our other strategic priorities. Our goal is to meet customers where they are on their clean energy independence journey and provide solutions to improve their lives. Our strategy is to integrate the best and most differentiated offerings available and as appropriate, either develop these offerings alongside our partners or build the capabilities to fulfill them directly in-house.

轉向我們其他戰略重點的更新。我們的目標是滿足客戶在清潔能源獨立之旅中的需求，並提供改善他們生活的解決方案。我們的戰略是整合現有的最佳和最具差異化的產品，並酌情與我們的合作夥伴一起開發這些產品，或者建立直接在內部實現這些產品的能力。

Sunrun's leading work to aggregate residential batteries and form valuable distributed power plants continues to advance. Our exclusive partnership with PG&E called Peak Power Rewards, is the largest residential distributed power plant of its kind in the United States. Over the last quarter, we grew that program further by adding 1,000 customers. We now have 8,500 customers participating with up to 34 megawatts available for dispatch.

Sunrun 在聚合住宅電池和形成有價值的分佈式發電廠方面的領先工作繼續取得進展。我們與 PG&E 的獨家合作夥伴關係稱為 Peak Power Rewards，是美國同類中最大的住宅分佈式發電廠。上個季度，我們進一步擴大了該計劃，增加了 1,000 名客戶。我們現在有 8,500 名客戶參與其中，可供調度的電量高達 34 兆瓦。

Starting yesterday, our participating fleet of home batteries has been supporting the grid by dispatching during critical peak times. The value of enrolling in the program, both for our customers and for Sunrun is compelling, both on a per customer basis and is a meaningful source of additional recurring revenue. As part of their enrollment in this program, customers receive $750, which is entirely found money, an additional and meaningful value above their initial expectations when subscribing with Sunrun.

從昨天開始，我們參與的家用電池車隊一直在關鍵高峰時段通過調度來支持電網。加入該計劃對於我們的客戶和 Sunrun 來說都是極具吸引力的，無論是從每個客戶的角度來看，還是額外經常性收入的一個有意義的來源。作為註冊該計劃的一部分，客戶將收到 750 美元，這完全是找到的錢，這是超出他們在訂閱 Sunrun 時的最初期望的額外且有意義的價值。

Together with our customers and PG&E, we are proving the value of our rapidly growing fleet of dispatchable energy assets.

我們正在與客戶和 PG&E 一起證明我們快速增長的可調度能源資產的價值。

As previously announced, we secured an exclusive contract with Puerto Rico's utility company PREPA to deliver 17 megawatts of baseload daily cycling power. Separately, working through the policy and regulatory process over the last 5 years, we have helped develop a rapid emergency response program that will be the first of its kind in the U.S., providing localized power when blackouts are impending. Sunrun stands ready to provide our distributed power plant services from thousands of customer rooftops as soon as the program is finalized in the coming months.

正如之前宣布的，我們與波多黎各公用事業公司 PREPA 簽訂了一份獨家合同，提供 17 兆瓦的基本負載每日騎行電力。另外，通過過去 5 年的政策和監管流程，我們幫助制定了一項快速應急響應計劃，該計劃將成為美國首個此類計劃，在停電即將來臨時提供本地電力。一旦該計劃在未來幾個月內最終確定，Sunrun 已準備好從數千個客戶屋頂提供分佈式發電廠服務。

These programs are so important, expanding the value proposition for customers and providing incremental recurring revenue streams to Sunrun, which are largely not reflected in our metrics today. Our growing experience with grid services increases our conviction that we can realize $2,000 or more in per customer NPV from these assets. And the need for these programs will only increase as the grid ages and climatic events further strain its capabilities.

這些計劃非常重要，它們擴大了客戶的價值主張，並為 Sunrun 提供了增量經常性收入流，而這在我們今天的指標中基本上沒有反映出來。我們在電網服務方面不斷積累的經驗增強了我們的信念，即我們可以從這些資產中為每個客戶實現 2,000 美元或更多的 NPV。隨著電網老化和氣候事件進一步對其能力造成壓力，對這些計劃的需求只會增加。

Of our nearly 870,000 customers, 65,000 have batteries today, representing 7% of our fleet. We expect to launch storage offerings for the remaining 93% of our customers in 2024 with a retrofit offering, while simultaneously increasing our attachment rate of batteries for new customers. We also plan to launch a storage-only offering to meet the demand from customers looking for resiliency, but whose home might not be ideal for solar.

目前，在我們近 870,000 名客戶中，有 65,000 名擁有電池，占我們車隊的 7%。我們預計在 2024 年為剩餘 93% 的客戶推出存儲產品和改造產品，同時提高新客戶的電池附加率。我們還計劃推出僅存儲產品，以滿足尋求彈性但其房屋可能不適合太陽能的客戶的需求。

Many look at Sunrun as a solar company, but we are now in a unique position to build a massive nimble, controllable energy generation company that can also provide energy storage, advanced energy control technologies, smart panels from SPAN, EV charging and enable mobile backup storage from electric vehicles such as our partnership with Ford. Our dedicated experienced sales teams provide a strategic advantage for Sunrun to lead in commercializing these opportunities.

許多人將Sunrun 視為一家太陽能公司，但我們現在處於獨特的地位，可以建立一家大型靈活、可控的能源發電公司，該公司還可以提供能源存儲、先進的能源控制技術、SPAN 智能面板、電動汽車充電並支持移動備份電動汽車的存儲，例如我們與福特的合作夥伴關係。我們經驗豐富的專業銷售團隊為 Sunrun 提供了戰略優勢，使其能夠在這些機會的商業化方面處於領先地位。

Lunar Energy, the venture that we invested in alongside SK Group unveiled details of their first product in June. We are so excited to work with Lunar as a key partner to accelerate home electrification. We expect Lunar's initial storage offering to be available in the coming quarters and their advanced grid services platform is a key differentiator for us as we build massive distributed energy plants across America.

我們與 SK 集團共同投資的企業 Lunar Energy 在 6 月份公佈了其首款產品的詳細信息。我們很高興能與 Lunar 作為加速家庭電氣化的關鍵合作夥伴合作。我們預計 Lunar 的初始存儲產品將在未來幾個季度推出，隨著我們在美國各地建設大型分佈式能源工廠，他們先進的電網服務平台是我們的一個關鍵差異化因素。

SnapNrack, the independent solar racking technology company we own also continues to innovate with leading solutions, including fast, direct to deck mounting options for rooftop solar system called TopSpeed. SnapNrack products are sold broadly to the industry and leveraged by our teams as they dramatically increased installation efficiency.

我們擁有的獨立太陽能支架技術公司 SnapNrack 也不斷通過領先的解決方案進行創新，包括名為 TopSpeed 的屋頂太陽能係統的快速、直接到甲板的安裝選項。 SnapNrack 產品廣泛銷往業界，並被我們的團隊充分利用，因為它們極大地提高了安裝效率。

We are focused on maximizing value for our shareholders by delivering strong margins, which will support meaningful cash generation. Margins are expected to expand significantly in the coming quarters from pricing, product mix and go-to-market decisions. A continued focus on operating efficiency and tailwinds from ITC adders, hardware cost improvements and a general easing of inflationary pressures.

我們致力於通過提供強勁的利潤率來為股東實現價值最大化，這將支持有意義的現金生成。由於定價、產品組合和上市決策，預計未來幾個季度的利潤率將大幅擴大。繼續關注運營效率和 ITC 加法器帶來的推動力、硬件成本的改善以及通脹壓力的普遍緩解。

We continue to make meaningful advances in our operational efficiency metrics, growing installation volumes while maintaining or reducing staffing levels throughout the organization. While there are numerous initiatives underway, a few noteworthy ones include our national rollout of our shift to job site delivery of equipment, which enables job site reporting for our installation crews. We are seeing strong improvements in labor efficiency, employee satisfaction and safety metrics from this process change.

我們繼續在運營效率指標方面取得有意義的進步，增加安裝量，同時維持或減少整個組織的人員配置水平。雖然正在進行許多舉措，但有一些值得注意的舉措包括我們在全國范圍內推出設備交付工作現場的舉措，這使得我們的安裝人員能夠進行工作現場報告。我們看到這一流程變革極大地提高了勞動效率、員工滿意度和安全指標。

We also recently made a meaningful investment in our artificial intelligence. It's too early to quantify potential benefits, but we believe it presents a unique opportunity to drive increased cost efficiency, reduce cycle times and improved customer experience. As an example of our efforts to prioritize margins and balance growth, we recently optimized our strategy to encourage stronger uptake of storage across the country.

我們最近還在人工智能方面進行了有意義的投資。現在量化潛在收益還為時過早，但我們相信它提供了一個獨特的機會來提高成本效率、縮短週期時間並改善客戶體驗。作為我們努力優先考慮利潤和平衡增長的一個例子，我們最近優化了我們的戰略，以鼓勵全國范圍內更大程度地利用存儲。

We also reduced our direct operations footprint in Arizona, shifting to an affiliate partner-led go-to-market approach. We are committed to driving meaningful cash generation in this business. We are targeting annual run rate recurring cash generation of $200 million to $500 million or higher in future quarters as further margin improvements are realized. Danny will expand upon this in his section.

我們還減少了在亞利桑那州的直接運營足跡，轉向由聯屬合作夥伴主導的市場進入方式。我們致力於推動該業務產生有意義的現金。隨著利潤率進一步提高，我們的目標是未來幾個季度的年運行率經常性現金生成達到 2 億至 5 億美元或更高。丹尼將在他的部分中對此進行詳細闡述。

At Sunrun, we are focused on managing both margins and volumes to maximize cash generation as the ultimate and most clear value we can create for our shareholders. Importantly, we underwrite our new originations with a hurdle rate in excess of current capital costs. Sunrun has operated through a variety of cycles over its 16-year history and has proven time and again to be the prudent operator that can drive sustainable value-generating growth.

在 Sunrun，我們專注於管理利潤和銷量，以最大限度地提高現金生成量，以此作為我們能為股東創造的最終、最明確的價值。重要的是，我們以超過當前資本成本的最低資本成本來承保新產品。 Sunrun 在其 16 年的歷史中經歷了各種運營週期，並一次又一次證明自己是能夠推動可持續價值創造增長的謹慎運營商。

Last, but certainly not least, I want to celebrate our teams across the country, in the field and offices, who are helping accelerate this customer-led revolution and energy and practicing our strong culture of doing it safely and efficiently. I am so thankful for the contributions from each and every Sunrunner who is helping drive this transformation.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我要讚揚我們在全國各地、現場和辦公室的團隊，他們正在幫助加速這場以客戶為主導的革命和活力，並踐行我們安全高效的強大文化。我非常感謝每一位幫助推動這一轉變的 Sunrunner 做出的貢獻。

This quarter, I would like to recognize outstanding performance from our Las Vegas branch, which is our top ranking team in the country as measured by our safety, productivity and customer satisfaction metrics. I also want to recognize our entire team for driving a world-class Net Promoter Score of 68 at the time of install, comparable to the top brands in the country. I also want to thank our California sales teams who have continued to outperform our peers, drive a higher margin mix while providing a great customer experience. Crushing it on all of these operating fundamentals of our business is critical to driving long-term value. We are proud of your contributions and your leadership at Sunrun.

本季度，我想表彰我們拉斯維加斯分公司的出色表現，根據我們的安全性、生產力和客戶滿意度指標來衡量，該分公司是我們在全國排名最高的團隊。我還要表彰我們整個團隊在安裝時取得了 68 分的世界級淨推薦值，可與國內頂級品牌相媲美。我還要感謝我們的加州銷售團隊，他們繼續超越同行，推動更高的利潤組合，同時提供出色的客戶體驗。粉碎我們業務的所有這些運營基礎對於推動長期價值至關重要。我們為您在 Sunrun 的貢獻和領導力感到自豪。

With that, let me turn the call over to Danny for our financial update.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給丹尼，了解我們的財務最新情況。

Thank you, Mary. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook. Turning first to the results for the quarter on Slide 10. In the second quarter, customer additions were approximately 39,800, including approximately 32,400 subscriber additions. Our subscription mix represented 83% of our deployments in the period. A meaningful increase from 78% last quarter and the highest level in 2 years.

謝謝你，瑪麗。今天，我將介紹我們本季度的運營和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。首先看幻燈片 10 上的季度業績。第二季度，新增客戶約為 39,800 名，其中新增訂戶約為 32,400 名。我們的訂閱組合佔該期間部署的 83%。較上季度的 78% 大幅增長，為兩年來的最高水平。

Our recent sales activities and the forthcoming benefits from the tax credit adders in the inflation Reduction Act, which are only available to the solar subscription model indicate the mix of customer additions is likely to continue to shift more towards subscribers in the quarters ahead. Solar energy capacity installed was approximately 297 megawatts in the second quarter of 2023, a greater than 20% increase from the same quarter last year and significantly exceeding our guidance of 270 to 290 megawatts.

我們最近的銷售活動以及通貨膨脹削減法案中的稅收抵免增加者即將帶來的好處（僅適用於太陽能訂閱模式）表明，未來幾個季度新增客戶的組合可能會繼續更多地轉向訂閱者。 2023年第二季度太陽能裝機容量約為297兆瓦，比去年同期增長超過20%，大大超過我們270至290兆瓦的指導。

Our installation teams executed well in the quarter and our affiliate partner channel outperformed significantly in Q2 as the strength of our subscription model captured increased share among dealers in the industry. We have now installed over 65,000 solar and storage systems. We expect storage installations will grow rapidly in the quarters ahead and attachment rates will increase meaningfully as our recent sales are well in excess of 30% nationally for reasons Mary mentioned earlier on the call.

我們的安裝團隊在本季度表現良好，我們的聯屬合作夥伴渠道在第二季度表現出色，因為我們的訂閱模式的優勢在行業經銷商中佔據了更大的份額。我們現已安裝超過 65,000 個太陽能和存儲系統。我們預計存儲安裝量將在未來幾個季度快速增長，並且附件率將顯著增加，因為我們最近的銷售額在全國范圍內遠遠超過 30%，原因瑪麗之前在電話會議上提到過。

Our backup battery offerings carry higher margins typically by several thousand dollars per customer. We also expect our Shift offering to achieve margins that are higher than prior solar-only margins received in California under NEM 2. We ended Q2 with approximately 869,000 customers and 725,000 subscribers, representing 6.2 gigawatts of networked solar energy capacity, an increase of 21% year-over-year.

我們的備用電池產品的利潤率通常較高，每位客戶通常可達數千美元。我們還預計我們的Shift 產品的利潤率將高於之前在NEM 2 下在加利福尼亞州獲得的純太陽能利潤率。第二季度末，我們擁有約869,000 名客戶和725,000 名訂戶，相當於6.2 吉瓦的聯網太陽能容量，增長了21%一年又一年。

Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q2, our annual recurring revenue or ARR, stood at over $1.1 billion up over 25% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.

我們的訂戶通過我們提供的清潔能源合同大多數都在 20 年或 25 年以下，從而產生了可觀的經常性收入。截至第二季度末，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 超過 11 億美元，比去年同期增長 25% 以上。我們的平均合同期限剩餘近 18 年。

Turning to Slide 12. In Q2, subscriber value was approximately 44,700 and creation cost was approximately $32,400 delivering a net subscriber value of $12,321, in line with our guidance of a sequential increase to the $12,000 figure in Q1. Our Q2 subscriber value and net subscriber value both continue to assume a 30% investment tax credit and thus exclude any margin upside associated with the tax credit adders.

轉向幻燈片 12。第二季度，訂閱者價值約為 44,700 人，創建成本約為 32,400 美元，淨訂閱者價值為 12,321 美元，符合我們在第一季度連續增加到 12,000 美元的指導。我們第二季度的訂戶價值和淨訂戶價值均繼續承擔 30% 的投資稅收抵免，因此排除了與稅收抵免加法器相關的任何利潤上升空間。

Although the ITC adder for energy communities will apply retroactively to January 1, 2023, we again did not reflect this value in our net subscriber value for Q2 as we work through the implementation with our system and complete all necessary steps with our capital providers, but expect to begin doing so in Q3. We currently estimate the energy community adder will apply to approximately 15% of new installations even without adjusting our geographic footprint.

儘管能源社區的ITC 加法器將追溯至2023 年1 月1 日，但當我們通過系統實施並與資本提供者完成所有必要步驟時，我們再次沒有在第二季度的淨用戶價值中反映這一價值，但是預計在第三季度開始這樣做。我們目前估計，即使不調整我們的地理足跡，能源社區的增加也將適用於大約 15% 的新裝置。

We are seeing easing supply chain conditions and substantial unit cost reductions across our key hardware components, which should start to flow through our reported costs over the next few quarters as we work through our higher cost inventory. On a like-for-like basis for a 7.5 kilowatt solar with backup battery system, hardware costs are expected to decline by nearly 15% or nearly $2,000 per system over the next few quarters. These beneficial trends may be obscured by an increasing mix of storage, which carries higher net margins but will increase hardware and install costs and, therefore, impact creation costs.

我們看到供應鏈狀況有所緩解，關鍵硬件組件的單位成本大幅下降，隨著我們處理成本較高的庫存，這些成本應該會在未來幾個季度開始體現在我們報告的成本中。與配備備用電池系統的 7.5 千瓦太陽能係統相比，預計未來幾個季度的硬件成本將下降近 15%，即每個系統的成本將下降近 2,000 美元。這些有益的趨勢可能會被存儲組合的增加所掩蓋，存儲組合的淨利潤更高，但會增加硬件和安裝成本，從而影響創建成本。

Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period was $399 million in the second quarter. This represents an almost doubling compared to the prior year, even without adjusting for the less favorable discount rate used this year.

第二季度產生的總價值（即淨用戶價值乘以該期間新增用戶數量）為 3.99 億美元。即使沒有對今年使用的不太有利的貼現率進行調整，這也意味著與上一年相比幾乎翻了一番。

Our present value-based metrics are presented using a 6% discount rate, which we last updated from 5% to 6% last quarter. As a reminder, we generally prefer not to update the discount rate frequently to enable ease of comparison across periods. Instead, we provide advanced rate ranges that reflect current interest rates, enabling investors to calculate the obtainable net cash unit margins on our deployments.

我們目前基於價值的指標使用 6% 的折扣率來呈現，我們上個季度將折扣率從 5% 更新為 6%。提醒一下，我們通常不喜歡頻繁更新貼現率，以便於跨期間比較。相反，我們提供反映當前利率的高級利率範圍，使投資者能夠計算我們的部署中可獲得的淨現金單位利潤。

In addition to providing this heuristic, this quarter for direct clarity, we have added a pro forma net subscriber value using the capital cost observed for the quarter. In Q2, our average capital cost was approximately 7.25%, which on a pro forma basis, results in net subscriber value of $8,104 and thus total value generated of $262 million, which is up 31% compared to Q2 of last year, which was presented again using a 5% discount rate.

除了提供這種啟發式的方法之外，為了直接清晰起見，本季度我們還使用本季度觀察到的資本成本添加了預計淨訂戶價值。第二季度，我們的平均資本成本約為 7.25%，按預計計算，用戶淨價值為 8,104 美元，因此產生的總價值為 2.62 億美元，比去年第二季度增長了 31%。再次使用5% 的折扣率。

As Mary mentioned, our financial underwriting already takes into account a cost of capital well in excess of 6%.

正如 Mary 提到的，我們的財務承保已經考慮了遠遠超過 6% 的資本成本。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet on Slide 13. Gross earning assets were $12.6 billion at the end of the second quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from subscribers over time. Net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures, and distributions to project equity financing partners, all discounted at a 6% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向幻燈片 13 上的總盈利資產和淨盈利資產以及我們的資產負債表。第二季度末的總盈利資產為 126 億美元。總盈利資產是我們預計隨著時間的推移從訂閱者那裡收到的現金流量的衡量標準。扣除運營和維護成本、對稅務股權合作夥伴和合夥企業翻轉結構的分配以及對項目股權融資合作夥伴的分配，全部按 6% 的無槓桿資本成本貼現。

Net earning assets were over $4.4 billion at the end of the second quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Net earning assets increased by over $400 million this quarter, driven by strong net subscriber values and more favorable working capital dynamics compared to the prior period as we reduced inventory.

第二季度末淨利潤資產超過 44 億美元。淨盈利資產是總盈利資產加上現金減去所有債務。由於我們減少了庫存，強勁的淨用戶價值和與上一時期相比更有利的營運資金動態推動了本季度的淨利潤資產增加了 4 億多美元。

The value creation upside from future grid services opportunities and selling additional high-value electrification products and services to our long-term customer base are not reflected in these metrics. As we've shared before, we regularly enter into interest rate swaps to hedge capital costs on our newly installed customers. We are principally exposed to interest rate fluctuations between customer origination through shortly after installation.

這些指標並未反映出未來電網服務機會以及向我們的長期客戶群銷售額外的高價值電氣化產品和服務所帶來的價值創造優勢。正如我們之前分享的，我們定期進行利率互換，以對沖新安裝客戶的資本成本。我們主要面臨客戶發起到安裝後不久之間的利率波動。

Around the time of installation, our systems are financed with project level nonrecourse debt. Nearly all of this financing is insulated from near-term interest rate fluctuations as our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, we do not adjust the discount rate used in net earning assets to match current capital costs for new installations.

在安裝期間，我們的系統通過項目級無追索權債務進行融資。幾乎所有這些融資都不受近期利率波動的影響，因為我們的債務要么是固定息票長期證券，要么是通過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率貸款。因此，我們不會調整淨收益資產中使用的貼現率來匹配新安裝的當前資本成本。

We ended the quarter with $921 million in total cash, an increase of $78 million compared to the prior quarter.

本季度結束時，我們的現金總額為 9.21 億美元，比上一季度增加了 7800 萬美元。

Turning briefly to our capital markets activities and outlook on Slide 16. We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 330 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the second quarter. Following transactions after the quarter closed, Sunrun has $400 million in unused commitments available in its $1.8 billion nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan to fund approximately 150 megawatts of projects for subscribers. This strong capital runway allows us to be selective in timing our capital markets activity.

幻燈片 16 簡要介紹了我們的資本市場活動和前景。我們繼續保持穩健的項目融資跑道。截至今天，已完成的交易和執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收股權能力，可以為訂戶的超過 330 兆瓦的項目提供資金，超出第二季度部署的項目。在本季度結束後進行交易後，Sunrun 在其 18 億美元的無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款中擁有 4 億美元的未使用承諾，為訂戶提供約 150 兆瓦的項目資金。這條強大的資本跑道使我們能夠有選擇地選擇資本市場活動的時機。

Given the increased scale of our business, we plan to upsize and extend our nonrecourse warehouse loan in the coming few quarters as we have done several times before. We are also actively evaluating various options to expand routes to efficiently monetize tax credits, including the substantial amount of tax credit adders we expect by leveraging the new tax credit transferability provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act.

鑑於我們業務規模的擴大，我們計劃在未來幾個季度擴大並延長我們的無追索權倉庫貸款，正如我們之前多次所做的那樣。我們還在積極評估各種選擇，以擴大稅收抵免有效貨幣化的途徑，包括我們期望通過利用《通貨膨脹減少法案》中新的稅收抵免可轉移性條款來增加大量稅收抵免。

We currently see project-level capital costs at approximately 7.25%, which is a weighted average of our nonrecourse senior and subordinated debt. Our cost of capital indications are influenced by both realized terms on our transactions as well as observable market data such as longer term, treasury yields as a proxy for our base rate and credit spreads across numerous transactions completed by us and our peers.

我們目前認為項目級資本成本約為 7.25%，這是我們無追索權優先債務和次級債務的加權平均值。我們的資本成本指標受到我們交易的已實現條款以及可觀察的市場數據的影響，例如作為我們基本利率代理的長期國債收益率以及我們和我們的同行完成的眾多交易的信用利差。

The deep relationships we have cultivated with many capital providers in multiple markets, our recognition as a high-quality sponsor and the strong performance trends of our customers, affords us access to attractively priced capital.

我們與多個市場的許多資本提供者建立了深厚的關係，我們作為高質量贊助商的認可以及客戶的強勁業績趨勢，使我們能夠獲得價格有吸引力的資本。

Demonstrating this access, last week, we closed a portfolio term out involving a private senior securitization and a subordinated loan. Together with these financings, year-to-date, we have closed almost $2 billion in project-level capital commitments.

上週，我們結束了一項涉及私人高級證券化和次級貸款的投資組合條款，證明了這種訪問權限。加上這些融資，今年迄今為止，我們已經完成了近 20 億美元的項目級資本承諾。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 17. We continue to guide growth in solar energy capacity installed to be between 10% and 15% for the full year 2023, which we believe will result in market share gains. Last quarter, we noted we might be around the high end of this range, but we now feel comfortable reiterating this range as we plan for a persistently higher interest rate environment, our decision to exit certain lower-margin markets, increased install cycle times from growth in storage attachment rates and a slower-than-expected recovery in California.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 17 的展望。我們繼續指導 2023 年全年太陽能裝機容量增長 10% 至 15%，我們相信這將帶來市場份額的增長。上個季度，我們注意到我們可能處於該範圍的高端，但我們現在可以放心地重申這一範圍，因為我們計劃持續較高的利率環境，我們決定退出某些低利潤市場，增加安裝週期時間加利福尼亞州存儲附加率的增長和復蘇速度慢於預期。

We continue to believe the market is very underpenetrated and can sustain long-term growth rates of 15%. In this strong long-term demand backdrop, our priority is to generate cash by continuing to increase customer values through growing storage adoption among higher value products and services and growing our scale and efficiency further.

我們仍然認為該市場滲透率非常低，可以維持 15% 的長期增長率。在這種強勁的長期需求背景下，我們的首要任務是通過增加高價值產品和服務中存儲的採用以及進一步擴大我們的規模和效率來繼續增加客戶價值，從而產生現金。

In Q3, we expect solar energy capacity installed to be in a range of 255 and 275 megawatts. This will decrease from the second quarter's level -- this decrease from the second quarter's level reflects the decline in California order volumes in Q2, which will impact in sales in Q3.

第三季度，我們預計太陽能裝機容量將在 255 至 275 兆瓦之間。這將較第二季度的水平有所下降——較第二季度水平的下降反映了第二季度加州訂單量的下降，這將影響第三季度的銷售。

Our success in achieving substantially higher storage attachment rates on our sales nationally also results in longer install cycle times, which creates near-term lags to the rate of installation completions as storage attach rates migrate upwards.

我們在全國范圍內的銷售中成功實現了大幅提高的存儲附加率，這也導致了安裝週期時間的延長，隨著存儲附加率的上升，安裝完成率在短期內出現了滯後。

We expect net subscriber values to be materially higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half, driven in large part by the much higher net subscriber values from backup battery systems factoring into our mix, particularly in Q4, when we expect to see the strongest net subscriber value of the year.

我們預計下半年的淨用戶價值將顯著高於上半年，這在很大程度上是由於我們的組合中備用電池系統的淨用戶價值大幅提高，特別是在第四季度，我們預計查看今年最強勁的淨用戶價值。

We anticipate including the energy community ITC adder starting in Q3. While we expect the domestic content and low income adders are most likely to benefit us starting in 2024, although their benefit could materialize sooner. Offsetting these gains will be less favorable fixed cost absorption in Q3, resulting from lower volume and potential near-term headwinds in our equipment distribution business.

我們預計從第三季度開始納入能源社區 ITC 加法器。我們預計國內內容和低收入增加者最有可能從 2024 年開始使我們受益，儘管它們的好處可能會更早實現。由於我們的設備分銷業務的銷量下降和近期潛在的不利因素，第三季度的固定成本吸收將抵消這些收益。

Recent interest rate increases, inflationary pressures and working capital needs have prevented us from generating meaningful cash. We responded to a headwind decisively with higher pricing and operating efficiency improvements. Since the start of 2022, the increases in cost of capital reduced realizable proceeds by greater than $1 billion and we faced higher input costs and a dynamic supply chain environment, which resulted in a higher inventory balance.

最近的加息、通脹壓力和營運資金需求使我們無法產生有意義的現金。我們通過提高定價和提高運營效率果斷應對逆風。自 2022 年初以來，資本成本的增加使可實現收益減少了超過 10 億美元，我們面臨著更高的投入成本和動態的供應鏈環境，從而導致庫存餘額更高。

Given our actions, we are now targeting annual run rate recurring cash generation of $200 million to $500 million or higher in future quarters as further margin improvements are realized. As we have described in the past, because we finance our growth using tax equity and nonrecourse project debt, we measure cash generation as the change in our cash balance excluding any changes to our parent level debt, equity and equity-like financings as we highlight on Slide 15.

鑑於我們的行動，隨著利潤率的進一步提高，我們現在的目標是在未來幾個季度實現每年 2 億至 5 億美元或更高的經常性現金生成。正如我們過去所描述的，因為我們使用稅收股權和無追索權項目債務為我們的增長提供資金，所以我們將現金生成量衡量為現金餘額的變化，不包括母公司層面債務、股權和股權類融資的任何變化，正如我們強調的那樣在幻燈片 15 上。

Because project finance timing can be lumpy, cash generation can also be lumpy quarter-to-quarter. We expect to provide more details on cash generation including more specific guidance on timing in the quarters -- in the coming quarters, but want to be clear that this is the financial outcome we plan to deliver. With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

由於項目融資時間可能不穩定，因此每個季度的現金生成也可能不穩定。我們預計將在未來幾個季度提供有關現金生成的更多詳細信息，包括有關季度時間安排的更具體指導，但希望明確這是我們計劃實現的財務成果。說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回到瑪麗身上。

Thanks, Danny. I am so appreciative of our hard working team whose incredible passion for the work we do and commitment to our purpose helped deliver another strong quarter results. Our team is laser focused on accelerating the strong momentum, embracing this massive shift and extending our lead as America's clean energy company, driving continued efficiencies across the business and generating more value for our shareholders, our partners and our customers. Operator, let's open the line for questions.

謝謝，丹尼。我非常感謝我們辛勤工作的團隊，他們對我們所做工作的極大熱情和對我們目標的承諾幫助我們再次取得了強勁的季度業績。我們的團隊專注於加速強勁勢頭，擁抱這一巨大轉變並擴大我們作為美國清潔能源公司的領先地位，推動整個業務的持續效率，並為我們的股東、合作夥伴和客戶創造更多價值。接線員，讓我們打開提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from James West from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 James West。

Congratulations on the massive pickup in battery attachment rate, very impressive. I have really 2 questions around that. First, on the -- I think what you said earlier around margins that the attachments, the batteries, they come in at higher margins that are offsetting some lower volumes. Is it just an offset? Or is it actually more than offsetting somewhat temporary lower volumes?

祝賀電池連接率大幅上升，非常令人印象深刻。我確實有兩個問題。首先，我認為您之前所說的關於附件、電池的利潤率，它們的利潤率較高，抵消了銷量的下降。這只是一個抵消嗎？或者它實際上不僅僅是抵消暫時的銷量下降？

Yes. I mean, again, like we are, as I said, so thrilled as well with the work of our team and the appetite of our customers. I mean the reality is our customers want storage, and we're the company to deliver it. So we're really excited by that, and we're excited about the momentum we see going forward. And yes, they produce much higher value every customer because in essence, we're selling 2 very significantly priced products now instead of one, every customer is worth a lot more.

是的。我的意思是，正如我所說，我們對我們團隊的工作和客戶的胃口感到非常興奮。我的意思是，現實是我們的客戶需要存儲，而我們是提供存儲的公司。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮，並且對我們看到的未來發展勢頭感到興奮。是的，它們為每個客戶創造了更高的價值，因為本質上，我們現在銷售的是 2 種價格非常高的產品，而不是一種，每個客戶的價值要高得多。

But make no mistake, again, we see that the momentum is building on the sales side and we expect to see again, hit our target for the year to hit our target range.

但請不要誤會，我們看到銷售方面的勢頭正在增強，我們預計將再次達到我們的今年目標，達到我們的目標範圍。

Okay. Got it. And then on grid services, which looks like a huge, huge opportunity for you guys, how do you see the evolution here? I guess, one, is that accurate? And two, how do you see the evolution of that playing out? I know you have PG&E working with you now? Do you think other utilities will be working with you soon?

好的。知道了。然後在網格服務方面，這對你們來說看起來是一個巨大的機會，您如何看待這裡的演變？我想，一，這準確嗎？第二，您如何看待這種情況的演變？我知道 PG&E 現在與您合作嗎？您認為其他公用事業公司很快就會與您合作嗎？

Yes, about 100%. I think as I've described before, principally as a former utility CEO for so long, we just -- were building significant scale of power plant capabilities all across America at the exact same time as you're seeing, James, where the grid is actually showing real stress and strain under increased heat, different climatic events. So yes, we absolutely expect to continue to see an uptick. It's why -- again, as I mentioned, we're looking at sort of a minimum of $2,000 NPV per customer from a grid services perspective, but seeing a lot more potential as we look to the future.

是的，大約100%。我認為，正如我之前所描述的，主要是作為一名前公用事業首席執行官這麼長時間，我們只是在美國各地建立大規模的發電廠能力，就像你所看到的，詹姆斯，電網在同一時間實際上顯示了高溫、不同氣候事件下的真實壓力和應變。所以，是的，我們絕對期望繼續看到增長。這就是為什麼——正如我所提到的，我們從電網服務的角度來看，每個客戶的 NPV 至少為 2,000 美元，但在展望未來時，我們看到了更多的潛力。

Next question today is coming from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩·李。

Maybe first one, just a follow-up on James' question about the high battery attach rate and the margin accretion potential there. I think in the past, you all have talked about maybe a couple of thousand dollars of incremental subscriber value for a battery plus solar customer as opposed to just a solar-only. Not sure if that math still holds true, but can you maybe give us a sense of what the incremental subscriber value accretion is? And then maybe is it different between a backup battery customer versus a Shift battery customer? And then I have a follow-up.

也許是第一個，只是詹姆斯關於高電池連接率和利潤增長潛力的問題的後續。我想在過去，你們都談到過電池加太陽能客戶可能會增加幾千美元的訂戶價值，而不僅僅是太陽能客戶。不確定這個數學是否仍然成立，但您能否讓我們了解一下增量訂閱者價值增長是多少？那麼備用電池客戶與 Shift 電池客戶之間可能有什麼不同嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Brian, this is Danny speaking. Yes, it could be a few thousand dollars per customer and as we blend to the mix. So we said on the call, greater than 30% back up and that's not just in California, that's a national event that's occurring. So as we get that through our pipeline and deliver to install, as we've noted, like battery installations do take a little while longer. So over the coming couple of quarters, we could see a few thousand dollars per customer magnitude of pickup is what we're planning for.

是的。布萊恩，我是丹尼。是的，當我們混合在一起時，每個客戶可能需要幾千美元。因此，我們在電話會議上表示，支持率超過 30%，這不僅僅是在加利福尼亞州，這是正在發生的全國性事件。因此，正如我們所指出的，當我們通過管道並交付安裝時，電池安裝確實需要更長的時間。因此，在接下來的幾個季度中，我們計劃為每位客戶提供數千美元的提貨服務。

Okay. That's great. And obviously, that would feed into that substantially higher subscriber value as you're sort of guiding to here in the second half. Fair enough. Second question I had was around the $200 million to $500 million run rate annual recurring cash generation. It's a fairly wide range. I know it's lumpy, as you said. But can you maybe just give us a sense of what's driving that wide range? How it impacts your financing strategy, if at all?

好的。那太棒了。顯然，這將帶來更高的訂戶價值，正如您在下半年所引導的那樣。很公平。我的第二個問題是關於每年 2 億至 5 億美元的經常性現金生成的運行率。這是一個相當廣泛的範圍。我知道它是凹凸不平的，正如你所說的。但您能否讓我們了解一下是什麼推動瞭如此大的範圍？它如何影響您的融資策略（如果有的話）？

And I just feel like we've seen this metric introduced in the past, but it's been tougher to get a sense of how consistent and maybe even the practical implications of what this metric is going to mean for you going forward? And I know in the past or recent past, it's gone kind of in a negative direction. So I'm just trying to get a sense for how you're thinking about this implications-wise as well as how consistently you think you can maintain the cash generation going forward.

我只是覺得我們過去已經看到過這個指標，但是很難了解這個指標的一致性，甚至可能對您未來意味著什麼？我知道在過去或最近的過去，它已經朝著消極的方向發展了。因此，我只是想了解一下您如何看待這一影響，以及您認為自己能夠保持未來現金生成的一致性。

Yes. Thank you for the question. I would start by saying strategically, that is the target. That's what we're driving towards. That's where we're working towards. And in part of the commentary, we did also highlight the interest rate increases and some of the events over the last year that took us off that path, frankly. And it wasn't just the magnitude of the interest rate increases, but it was the speed with which it happened. And then coupling that with the dramatic rise, we had an inventory balance managing to supply chain, those were prohibitive to cash gen, although we have been increasing pricing and margins and cost efficiency in the business.

是的。感謝你的提問。我首先從戰略上說，這就是目標。這就是我們努力的方向。這就是我們正在努力的方向。坦率地說，在評論的一部分中，我們確實還強調了利率上漲以及去年發生的一些事件，這些事件使我們偏離了這條道路。問題不僅在於利率上漲的幅度，還在於利率上漲的速度。然後，與急劇增長相結合，我們管理供應鏈的庫存平衡，儘管我們一直在提高業務的定價、利潤和成本效率，但這些對現金生成來說是令人望而卻步的。

So as we chart out our future, kind of where we are now, and some of the assumptions we'll make on volume, backup battery mix, ITC adders, the general environment around cost of capital where again, as Mary said and I reiterated, we do plan the business now for our current cost of capital. So we have recuperated the effective interest rate increases. And as that has kind of maintained in a range, we look at that and a few other factors like what's happening in the external environment on equipment cost.

因此，當我們規劃我們的未來時，我們現在所處的位置，以及我們將對產量、備用電池組合、ITC 加法器、圍繞資本成本的總體環境做出的一些假設，正如瑪麗所說和我重申的那樣，我們現在確實根據當前的資本成本規劃業務。因此，我們已經恢復了實際利率的上升。由於這一點保持在一定範圍內，我們會考慮這一點以及其他一些因素，例如外部環境中設備成本的變化。

And as we put all that together, from a micro level, $200 million to $500 million becomes the target. And from a macro level, as we think about kind of the overall full cost stack annualized spend of the company and relate that on a percentage basis, like even net of working capital, we think that's a reasonable range for us to target and an expectation, frankly, that we have on ourselves.

當我們把所有這些放在一起時，從微觀層面來看，2 億到 5 億美元就成為目標。從宏觀層面來看，當我們考慮公司的總體全部成本堆棧年化支出並將其按百分比（甚至扣除營運資本）聯繫起來時，我們認為這是我們的目標和預期的合理範圍，坦率地說，我們自己也有。

Your next question today is coming from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

今天你們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Following up on that last question on the $200 million to $500 million range here of cash over time. I mean, can you talk a little bit more specifically about how lumpy that could be? I know you disclaimed in the remarks here that you're not reflecting anything better than the 30% tax credit. Transferability and monetization remains in flux. But how much of a step function change could we see next year as domestic content and especially attached with a higher attach rate on storage really starts to impact numbers.

繼續回答最後一個問題，即隨著時間的推移，這裡的現金範圍為 2 億至 5 億美元。我的意思是，你能更具體地談談它有多笨重嗎？我知道您在此言論中否認您沒有反映比 30% 稅收抵免更好的東西。可轉讓性和貨幣化仍在不斷變化。但是，隨著國內內容，特別是更高的存儲附加率，明年我們會看到多大的階躍功能變化真正開始影響數字。

When you say over the next few quarters, is this really just waiting to get that clarity on the tax credits to pivot to that kind of cash?

當你說在接下來的幾個季度中，這真的只是在等待稅收抵免的明確性轉向這種現金嗎？

Yes. So I think I highlighted some of the factors like backup battery mix, we observed in our sales and that's a matter of putting that through a timing model and seeing the ramp on installs. So that is not, I would say, in the basket of things that would cause lumpiness. ITC adders are obviously, as we mentioned, energy communities are about to be up and running kind of formally in the system, if you will and we'll talk more about that as we get that starting to get realized in the margins.

是的。因此，我認為我強調了一些因素，例如我們在銷售中觀察到的備用電池組合，這是通過計時模型並查看安裝量增長的問題。所以我想說，這不屬於會導致結塊的一籃子事情。正如我們所提到的，ITC 加法器顯然是，如果您願意的話，能源社區即將在系統中正式啟動並運行，當我們開始在邊緣實現這一點時，我們將更多地討論這一點。

And then low-income domestic content, those will phase in over time. We think low income will be a single event and domestic content would phase in over time and we do have a little bit of uncertainty on the exact timing but as we get more and more of that clarity, we will share it.

然後是低收入家庭內容，這些內容將隨著時間的推移逐步引入。我們認為低收入將是一個單一事件，國內內容將隨著時間的推移逐步加入，我們對確切的時間確實有一點不確定性，但隨著我們越來越清楚，我們將分享它。

The lumpiness comment is more around the fact that we do have several term out events into the capital markets a year as we scale up deals, have them ready with fully installed pools of assets and turn them out into the capital markets. And sometimes you might have a transaction that could be November, December or January and you might get the cash event hitting in a slightly different period. So that's not a quarterly target, that's an annualized target. That's why we're speaking on an annual number, but I think the point was more to remind folks that we should look at it over many quarters as opposed to any one individual quarter.

這種混亂的評論更多地圍繞這樣一個事實：隨著我們擴大交易規模，為它們準備好完全安裝的資產池，並將它們轉入資本市場，我們每年確實會在資本市場上發生幾次條款終止事件。有時，您可能會在 11 月、12 月或 1 月進行交易，並且您可能會在稍微不同的時期收到現金事件。所以這不是季度目標，而是年度目標。這就是我們談論年度數據的原因，但我認為更重要的是提醒人們，我們應該關注多個季度的數據，而不是任何一個單獨的季度。

Right. Certainly. It sounds like it will filter up over the next few quarters in particular. Just digging in on one of the silos here. When you think about the delta between these inventory number you cited and just broadly current market prices of equipment, and given when and what is that delta when you think about it, right? And especially when you get to that point in which you're recognizing current market pricing?

正確的。當然。聽起來尤其是在接下來的幾個季度，這種情況將會逐漸顯現。只是在這裡挖一個筒倉。當您考慮您引用的這些庫存數量與設備的當前市場價格之間的增量時，考慮到當您考慮它時，考慮到該增量是什麼時候以及什麼，對吧？尤其是當您已經認識到當前的市場定價時？

Yes. So I'll hit that one again. The -- and we have detailed the guidance on that timing. I would say, using an example system more directionally, but you could see, again on Slide 11, the decrease happens over the balance of the year and it's probably more heavily noticed and present in Q1 and that does recycle elevated inventory levels. We are giving those numbers as reflecting current purchasing activity in the business. So we have line of sight to the achievement that we show in Q1 with equipment prices getting substantially lower. That's just because we record the equipment cost on the install and there's a time lag with the elevated inventory level. So it's a couple of quarters to see that come through.

是的。所以我會再打一次。 - 我們已經詳細說明了有關該時間安排的指導。我想說的是，更定向地使用示例係統，但您可以再次在幻燈片11 上看到，減少發生在今年的剩餘時間內，並且可能在第一季度受到更廣泛的關注和出現，並且確實回收了較高的庫存水平。我們給出的這些數字反映了企業當前的採購活動。因此，我們看到了第一季度所取得的成就，設備價格大幅下降。這只是因為我們記錄了安裝時的設備成本，並且庫存水平升高存在時間滯後。因此，需要幾個季度才能看到這一結果。

Got it. And 7.25%, why that number?

知道了。 7.25%，為什麼是這個數字？

It's a math. We look at -- our longer-term capital costs are driven by a 7-year base rate, right? We -- I look at that several times a day, more than I should and then credit spreads are a function of the market, like we're not observing the data points every day, but there are several deals in the residential solar market, very big scale that get done. I think there was a loan transaction that priced today that had a spread compression of over 50 basis points from its last transaction. So we're reflecting all of these things as we, again, constantly evaluate the capital markets environment.

這是一道數學題。我們看看——我們的長期資本成本是由 7 年期基本利率驅動的，對嗎？我們 - 我每天都會看幾次，比我應該看的更多，然後信用利差是市場的函數，就像我們沒有每天觀察數據點一樣，但住宅太陽能市場有幾筆交易，完成的規模非常大。我認為今天有一筆貸款交易的定價與上次交易相比利差壓縮了 50 多個基點。因此，當我們再次不斷評估資本市場環境時，我們正在反映所有這些事情。

Your next question today is coming from Andrew Percoco from Morgan Stanley.

今天你們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩爾科科。

Just wanted to circle in on the net subscriber value guidance for the back half of the year. Is there any way you can provide some kind of bookends in terms of how we should be thinking about it? Looking back to this time last year, you did see a pretty noticeable uptick in 3Q. Should we think about order of magnitude relatively similar to what we've seen in 3Q of 2022? And maybe slightly differently, how should we think about growth in total value generated in the back half of the year when you combine it with your customer growth?

只是想了解一下今年下半年的淨用戶價值指導。有什麼方法可以提供某種書擋來幫助我們思考它嗎？回顧去年這個時候，你確實看到第三季度有相當明顯的上升。我們是否應該考慮與 2022 年第三季度相對相似的數量級？也許略有不同的是，當你將下半年產生的總價值的增長與客戶的增長結合起來時，我們應該如何看待它？

Yes. I mean what you're seeing is, as we described, a really different like customer profile moving forward. So we are selling to much higher margin customers. So a big part of how we see value creation is in the context of the product mix that we're selling and that increasing storage attachment rate. And again, what we're seeing from just a sales perspective, funnel perspective, we're feeling really strong about the whole -- the second half of the year and consistent with our guidance. Danny, do you want to hit the more specific question on.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們所描述的，您所看到的是一個非常不同的客戶檔案。因此，我們向利潤率更高的客戶銷售產品。因此，我們如何看待價值創造的一個重要部分是在我們銷售的產品組合和不斷增加的存儲附加率的背景下。再說一遍，從銷售角度、漏斗角度來看，我們對整個下半年的情況感到非常強勁，這與我們的指導一致。丹尼，你想問更具體的問題嗎？

Yes. Happy to give you a little bit of bridging here, which I think is helpful in the context of the value creation per subscriber going up but also the discount rate changing in that period of time. So if you look at Q2 2022, is the number you referenced, that $7,910 per customer. And as we talked about, if we adjust our PV6 metric to a PV7 in a quarter, we get to $8100, which is a couple of hundred dollars higher year-over-year despite interest rates increasing significantly over that period of time. And then if you look at the total value generated and you do the same compare, and you take the current period total value generated and adjusted for discount rate and compare that year-over-year, that number is up 31%.

是的。很高興在這里為您提供一些幫助，我認為這對於每個訂閱者創造的價值上升以及該時期折扣率的變化很有幫助。因此，如果您查看 2022 年第二季度，您提到的數字是每位客戶 7,910 美元。正如我們所討論的，如果我們在一個季度內將 PV6 指標調整為 PV7，我們將達到 8100 美元，儘管在那段時間利率大幅上漲，但同比增長了數百美元。然後，如果您查看生成的總價值並進行相同的比較，然後將本期生成的總價值並根據折扣率進行調整，然後與去年同期相比，該數字增加了 31%。

So substantial pickup year-over-year and then as far as the outlook, again, reiterate the potential here with the battery attached lift is a few thousand dollars per customer. And then we'll -- as we get more clarity on the adders and other things, we'll talk more about that as well.

同比如此大幅增長，就前景而言，再次重申，電池附加升降機的潛力是每位客戶幾千美元。然後，當我們對加法器和其他事情更加清楚時，我們也會更多地討論這一點。

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just one follow-up question on the virtual power plant opportunity. You've made some interesting announcements over the last few days in this space. And I'm just curious of the 900-megawatt hours or so of batteries that you have in the field, what percentage of that is already included in virtual power plant agreements and it does sound like you have a decent amount of retrofit in storage growth going forward, which is obviously an opportunity in itself. But just curious about the untapped potential in your existing customer base.

知道了。這很有幫助。也許只是關於虛擬發電廠機會的一個後續問題。過去幾天，您在這個領域發布了一些有趣的公告。我只是好奇你們在現場擁有的 900 兆瓦時左右的電池，其中有多少百分比已經包含在虛擬發電廠協議中，而且聽起來你們確實在存儲增長方面進行了相當多的改造展望未來，這顯然本身就是一個機會。但只是對現有客戶群中未開發的潛力感到好奇。

The untapped potential is significant. And again, one of the things that has been a really strong value proposition that -- Sunrun has been strong in the space of grid services and figuring out how to leverage these assets from a grid perspective for many years and we're really starting to see the acceleration of that and really -- and seeing the acceleration of the appreciation of what these distributed power plants can do from a growth perspective.

尚未開發的潛力是巨大的。再說一次，Sunrun 一直是一個非常強大的價值主張，多年來它在網格服務領域一直很強大，並且多年來一直在研究如何從網格的角度利用這些資產，我們真的開始從增長的角度來看，這些分佈式發電廠的作用正在加速增長。

So really, right now, it's a relatively small percentage in terms of the total available megawatt hours we have control of and that's one of the things that is so exciting when we think about the potential ahead. It's a huge part of why we also are really looking forward to launching retrofits for our existing customer base. We already have a significant list of customers that have let us know that they want to be -- they think they want a storage device. And then we also are going to be doing storage only solutions for customers as well.

所以，實際上，目前，就我們控制的總可用兆瓦時而言，它所佔的比例相對較小，而當我們考慮未來的潛力時，這是非常令人興奮的事情之一。這也是我們非常期待為現有客戶群推出改造的一個重要原因。我們已經擁有大量客戶，他們讓我們知道他們想要——他們認為他們想要一個存儲設備。然後我們還將為客戶提供純存儲解決方案。

Your next question is coming from Joseph Osha from Guggenheim Partners.

您的下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人公司的約瑟夫·奧沙。

I have 2 completely unrelated questions. The first, can I read into your comments that barring extraordinary circumstances, you are not going to be raising recourse capital or equity to fund growth. Is that kind of what I'm hearing is the corollary to this commitment to generate cash?

我有兩個完全不相關的問題。首先，我可以讀一下您的評論，除非有特殊情況，否則您不會籌集追索資本或股權來為增長提供資金。我所聽到的就是這種創造現金承諾的必然結果嗎？

Yes. That's what you're hearing.

是的。這就是你所聽到的。

Great. Very unequivocal. And the second question related to Lunar. Just so that I understand, is it the case that at least in some installations, you can use the inverter there to drive a panel string? I'm trying to understand what exactly that product is.

偉大的。非常明確。第二個問題與月球有關。只是為了讓我明白，至少在某些安裝中，您可以使用那裡的逆變器來驅動面板串嗎？我試圖了解該產品到底是什麼。

Paul, do you want to speak to Lunar?

保羅，你想和月球通話嗎？

Yes, of course. So we're really excited about the Lunar product. The install efficiencies of pairing the inverter with the battery create a lot of opportunity for us to speed up our installations and actually deploy full battery backup in more consumer situations. So we're excited about the operational efficiency as well as the ability to apply it in more situations.

是的當然。所以我們對 Lunar 產品感到非常興奮。逆變器與電池配對的安裝效率為我們創造了很多機會來加快安裝速度，並在更多消費者情況下實際部署完整的電池備份。因此，我們對運營效率以及將其應用於更多情況的能力感到興奮。

But that -- just to clarify, is it the case that I can use that inverter to drive a string of panels, if I want to?

但是，只是為了澄清一下，如果我願意的話，我是否可以使用該逆變器來驅動一串面板？

Yes.

是的。

Our next question today is coming from Kashy Harrison from Piper Sandler.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Kashy Harrison。

So first one for me, there's a very helpful color around equipment costs. And I wanted to broaden the discussion to customer acquisition costs of California. You've indicated sales are down maybe 1/3 year-over-year and smaller installers -- you're outperforming smaller installers post them. And so I'm wondering if this creates an opportunity for the industry in the run to maybe solve for improved economics by reducing customer acquisition costs, just given where we are in the cycle and where economics are in California. Or is that maybe not necessarily possible because there's still enough alternative opportunities for sales teams to go if the commission dollars come down.

所以對我來說第一個，關於設備成本有一個非常有用的顏色。我想將討論範圍擴大到加州的客戶獲取成本。您表示銷售額可能同比下降 1/3，而且安裝商規模較小 - 您的表現優於發布這些信息的較小安裝商。因此，我想知道這是否為該行業創造了一個機會，通過降低客戶獲取成本來解決改善經濟效益的問題，只要考慮到我們所處的周期以及加利福尼亞州的經濟狀況。或者這不一定是可能的，因為如果佣金下降，銷售團隊仍然有足夠的替代機會。

Yes. I think we continue to see people recognizing the value of selling at Sunrun. We've seen a 6% -- 5.5%, 6% decrease in CAC over the last 6 quarters. So sequentially, CAC has fallen every quarter, the last trailing 6 quarters as our net subscriber value is increasing. So you're seeing that kind of translation take place actively historically and we forecast that taking place going forward as well.

是的。我認為我們繼續看到人們認識到 Sunrun 銷售的價值。在過去 6 個季度中，我們看到 CAC 下降了 6% - 5.5%、6%。因此，隨著我們的淨用戶價值不斷增加，CAC 每個季度都會下降，最近 6 個季度都是如此。所以你會看到這種翻譯在歷史上正在積極發生，我們預測這種情況在未來也會發生。

And then maybe just for my follow-up. Just -- and apologies if I missed this in the initial prepared commentary, but just looking at the guidance, I think it implies a pretty big sequential uptick at the midpoint to maybe just over 310 megawatts by the fourth quarter. Can you maybe walk us through what drives the confidence in that sequential improvement? And perhaps how much of the outlook is currently de-risked by signed agreements?

然後也許只是為了我的後續行動。只是——如果我在最初準備的評論中錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但只要看看指導，我認為這意味著中點將出現相當大的連續上升，到第四季度可能會超過310兆瓦。您能否向我們介紹一下是什麼推動了對連續改進的信心？目前簽署的協議可能在多大程度上消除了前景風險？

Yes. So outside of California, we've been seeing 25% growth year-over-year in sales activity. And so we're seeing really strong growth outside of California. Speaking specifically inside California, we saw strong outpacing of growth quarter-over-quarter throughout the period and entering into the latter weeks of the end of the quarter and this first few days of this quarter, we're seeing, I would categorize as explosive sales activity from our teams there, bolstering our confidence in the number.

是的。因此，在加利福尼亞州以外的地區，我們的銷售活動同比增長了 25%。因此，我們看到加州以外地區的增長非常強勁。特別是在加州境內，我們看到整個時期的季度環比增長強勁，進入本季度末的最後幾週以及本季度的前幾天，我們看到，我將其歸類為爆炸性增長我們在那裡的團隊的銷售活動增強了我們對這個數字的信心。

Next question today is coming from Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer.

今天的下一個問題來自奧本海默的科林·魯什 (Colin Rusch)。

Within the sales process, can you talk a little bit about the trends on the conversion rates that you're getting in terms of lead to converting into actual sales? And then also on system size, particularly in California, as you transition into NEM 3.0.

在銷售流程中，您能談談您在潛在客戶轉化為實際銷售額方面所獲得的轉化率趨勢嗎？然後，當您過渡到 NEM 3.0 時，還會考慮系統規模，尤其是在加利福尼亞州。

Yes. So a lot of competitors inside California are downsizing systems because they don't have a Shift solution. So the way to preserve customer savings, given the time of use rate situation is to size down on systems. Our portfolio has not experienced that as we are deploying nearly a little in excess of 80% of the systems we're deploying have either a Shift or full battery backup. So we're not as susceptible to that decreased system size dynamic.

是的。因此，加州的許多競爭對手都在縮小系統規模，因為他們沒有 Shift 解決方案。因此，考慮到使用時間的情況，保持客戶節省的方法是縮小系統規模。我們的產品組合尚未經歷過這種情況，因為我們正在部署的系統中，超過 80% 的系統都具有 Shift 或完整的備用電池。因此，我們不太容易受到系統規模動態減小的影響。

Conversion rate is something we watch continuing and are very focused on and driving up conversions and customer experience is a constant focus for us.

轉化率是我們持續關注並非常關注的問題，提高轉化率和客戶體驗是我們持續關注的焦點。

And then as you look at monetizing the virtual power plant in those assets, I guess, it's still relatively nascent. Can you talk a little bit about the pricing dynamics and the potential to increase the functionality of the portfolio and monetize those assets at a higher level on a go-forward basis?

然後當你考慮通過這些資產中的虛擬發電廠貨幣化時，我想它仍然相對新生。您能否談談定價動態以及增加投資組合功能並在未來更高水平上將這些資產貨幣化的潛力？

Well, as we said, right now, we look at it as a value of $2,000 NPV per customer with the opportunity to just grow that going forward, to your point. So again, anything that's new takes time in -- like energy generation space. And I feel very heartened by the fact that you now have one of the largest utilities in America, partnering on a substantive project that is very high profile. It is leading to many other conversations.

嗯，正如我們所說，現在，我們將其視為每個客戶 2,000 美元的 NPV 價值，並且有機會繼續增長，達到您的觀點。再說一次，任何新事物都需要時間——比如能源產生空間。我感到非常振奮的是，你們現在擁有美國最大的公用事業公司之一，正在合作開展一個非常引人注目的實質性項目。它引發了許多其他對話。

So again, we see it as nothing but continued upside, not just for Sunrun and our shareholders, but for customers. Again, back to that California program that I talked about with PG&E, customers who went ahead and went with us for solar and storage for all sorts of financial and resiliency reasons, for basically a few months access to their storage, they have $750 of found money, which dramatically impacts the value proposition and the way customers see it.

因此，我們再次認為這只是持續的上漲，不僅對 Sunrun 和我們的股東有利，而且對客戶也有利。再次回到我與 PG&E 討論的加州項目，出於各種財務和彈性原因，繼續與我們一起使用太陽能和存儲的客戶，基本上可以在幾個月內使用他們的存儲，他們有 750 美元的發現金錢，這極大地影響了價值主張和客戶看待它的方式。

So again, I see this as a really strong growing opportunity for Sunrun and our customers and our shareholders.

因此，我再次認為這對於 Sunrun 以及我們的客戶和股東來說是一個非常強大的增長機會。

The next question is coming from Tristan Richardson from Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的特里斯坦·理查森。

Maybe just kind of curious, you talked about prioritizing some markets and the strength you're seeing in the direct channel business and obviously the long-term strategy to grow the direct channel business. Maybe if you could touch on the partner channel and just kind of what you're seeing there, just what we've heard from big box retailers, et cetera, foot traffic. Just maybe curious on outside the direct channel.

也許只是有點好奇，您談到了優先考慮某些市場以及您在直接渠道業務中看到的優勢，以及發展直接渠道業務的長期戰略。也許您可以談談合作夥伴渠道以及您在那裡看到的情況，以及我們從大型零售商等那裡聽到的人流量。也許只是對直接渠道之外感到好奇。

Yes. So we had -- as you saw really strong performance from our affiliate partners as we call them in our business this last quarter. We continue to see strong demand to get on to our platform, but have long held kind of a strategy around biasing towards scale versus driving towards attracting the smaller and long tail players. We have a really heavy focus on customer experience as well as installation quality. And so while demand remains and I would say, with this transition of the IRA adders, growing demand for dealers to join our platform, holding those standards kind of throttles that volume and ensures we're able to maintain installation quality and the customer experience that we require.

是的。正如您所看到的，我們的附屬合作夥伴在上個季度的業務中表現強勁。我們仍然看到進入我們平台的強勁需求，但長期以來一直採取一種偏向規模而不是吸引規模較小和長尾玩家的策略。我們非常注重客戶體驗和安裝質量。因此，儘管需求仍然存在，但我想說，隨著 IRA 加法器的轉變，經銷商加入我們平台的需求不斷增長，保持這些標準會限制數量，並確保我們能夠維持安裝質量和客戶體驗，我們需要。

Helpful. And then just on the $2,000 NPV on the battery side, I mean, should we think of that as -- this is a high-level number that incorporates some of the cost savings you're seeing in the hypothetical example you gave? Or should we think that there could be upside to the 2,000 over some medium-term period of time?

有幫助。然後就電池方面的 2,000 美元 NPV 而言，我的意思是，我們是否應該將其視為 - 這是一個高級數字，其中包含您在給出的假設示例中看到的一些成本節省？或者我們是否應該認為在中期一段時間內 2,000 點可能會有上漲空間？

And are you referring to the grid services number? Or was it the backup attach?

您指的是網格服務號碼嗎？或者是備份附件？

Backup attach, sorry.

備份附件，抱歉。

Yes. So yes, on the backup, it's -- I think it's a weighted impact of a few thousand dollars per customer as we get the attach rate up overall in the business. But if you are actually walking one system from solar only to back up, it could be a little more meaningful than that.

是的。所以，是的，在備份方面，我認為這是每個客戶幾千美元的加權影響，因為我們提高了整個業務的附加率。但如果你實際上只是在一個系統中從太陽能運行到備份，那麼它可能比這更有意義。

Next question is coming from Philip Shen from ROTH MKM.

下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen。

Want to explore the guidance cadence a bit more. So over the past 5 years, your Q3 installations are typically up, on average, 18% quarter-over-quarter but you're guiding Q3 installs to be down 11% quarter-over-quarter. And then for Q4, historically, over the past 5 years, the cadence is down 10% quarter-over-quarter but then the implied Q4 installers are now up 18%. I know you talked about it a little bit already, but I was wondering if you could talk bigger picture about that cadence, what's driving the weaker Q3 guide on a historical basis and then the reacceleration for Q4?

想要更多地探索指導節奏。因此，在過去 5 年中，您的第三季度安裝量通常平均環比增長 18%，但您預計第三季度安裝量環比下降 11%。然後對於第四季度，從歷史上看，在過去 5 年裡，節奏環比下降了 10%，但第四季度隱含的安裝量現在增長了 18%。我知道您已經談過一點了，但我想知道您是否可以更全面地談談這種節奏，是什麼推動了歷史基礎上第三季度指南的疲軟以及第四季度的重新加速？

Yes. Just to be clear, for Q3, we're going to be up year-over-year is what we're guiding to and up year-over-year for the entire year, obviously as well. That said, I think we hit pretty clearly like what we're seeing is that we had this dip and it happened at the same time that we're selling much higher value, multiple product systems to customers. So that also impacts sort of the installation and cycle timing. So that's why, as I hit, we see Q3 as solid but really a transition quarter as we're moving into, again, multiple products for a very strong percentage of our overall customers.

是的。需要明確的是，對於第三季度，我們的指導目標是同比增長，顯然全年也將同比增長。也就是說，我認為我們的打擊非常明顯，就像我們所看到的那樣，我們經歷了這種下滑，而且它發生在我們向客戶銷售更高價值的多種產品系統的同時。因此，這也會影響安​​裝和周期時間。因此，正如我所說，我們認為第三季度是穩健的，但實際上是一個過渡季度，因為我們再次為我們整體客戶中很大比例的客戶提供多種產品。

Great. And then shifting over to 2024 and California. So I know you don't have guidance out and you won't give guidance and this is -- I'm not asking for guidance. But looking in California here, our work suggests you guys are doing really well in California with NEM 3 originations, you guys talked about today. And we have a sense that maybe you guys can break -- you guys be flat year-over-year growth on originations maybe in Q3 or if not maybe in Q4. I was wondering if you could talk through that at all a little bit. And then to the degree that you are flat year-over-year on that growth in Q3 and Q4 last year, very strong periods, that is a leading indicator for what 2024 could be for you guys.

偉大的。然後轉移到 2024 年和加利福尼亞州。所以我知道你們沒有指導，也不會提供指導，這是——我不是在尋求指導。但看看這裡的加利福尼亞州，我們的工作表明你們在加利福尼亞州的 NEM 3 起源方面做得非常好，你們今天談到了這一點。我們有一種感覺，也許你們可以突破——你們的原創量同比增長可能會在第三季度，或者如果不是的話，可能會在第四季度。我想知道你能否稍微談談這個問題。然後，去年第三季度和第四季度的增長與去年同期持平，這是非常強勁的時期，這是 2024 年對你們來說可能會發生什麼的領先指標。

So I was wondering, you currently have this 10% to 15% growth for this year. For next year, do you think there's an opportunity for you guys to accelerate in 2024? Or do you think this 10% to 15% kind of growth pace feels like the right level.

所以我想知道，今年的增長率是 10% 到 15%。明年，你們認為2024年你們有機會加速嗎？或者您認為 10% 到 15% 的增長速度感覺合適嗎？

Yes. So as I mentioned, I mean when we look at California, and we look at what's happening outside California, again I think we hit that pretty hard. We're seeing really significant growth outside California. And we're seeing volume in California, and we're seeing it uptick, and we see that California is actually massively underpenetrated, particularly when you think about the opportunity to again bring multiple products to California customers.

是的。正如我所提到的，我的意思是，當我們看看加利福尼亞州以及加利福尼亞州以外正在發生的事情時，我認為我們再次遇到了相當大的打擊。我們看到加州以外地區的增長非常顯著。我們看到加利福尼亞州的銷量在上升，而且我們看到加利福尼亞州的滲透率實際上嚴重不足，特別是當您考慮再次向加利福尼亞州客戶提供多種產品的機會時。

So again, we guided, we're rock solid on our 10% to 15% guide that we gave for this year. And we don't see any reason to believe that, again -- consumer interest is very active for what we're selling, and we continue to see again tremendous opportunity in California and the rest of the country looking forward.

因此，我們再次重申，我們今年給出的 10% 至 15% 的指導方針堅如磐石。我們沒有任何理由相信，消費者對我們所銷售的產品非常感興趣，並且我們繼續在加利福尼亞州和全國其他地區看到巨大的機會。

Your next question is coming from Jordan Levy from Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jordan Levy。

You start to kind of strength in the affiliate channel and that...

您開始在聯屬網絡營銷渠道中發揮力量，並且......

Pardon me, Jordan, I cannot hear you. Would you mind raising your volume? Speaking through the microphone?

對不起，喬丹，我聽不到你說話。你介意提高音量嗎？通過麥克風說話？

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just wanted to get your thoughts. You pointed out the affiliate channel as kind of a key outperformer for install and you also mentioned the changes you made in Arizona. I just wanted to get your updated thoughts as to any further opportunities there to lean more heavily on the affiliate channel and some of the trends you're seeing in that market?

只是想了解您的想法。您指出聯屬渠道是安裝方面表現出色的關鍵渠道，您還提到了您在亞利桑那州所做的更改。我只是想了解您對更多地依賴聯屬渠道的進一步機會以及您在該市場中看到的一些趨勢的最新想法？

Yes, I think we see a lot of opportunities for the affiliate business. We've got phenomenal partners that create and generate 25% to 30% of our business. And as I stated earlier, we see strong demand for partners to join our platform and are constantly working on adding partners to that platform who meet our criteria around customer experience and installation quality. But it's a piece of our business that we have long since held and are very excited about continuing to focus on and grow.

是的，我認為我們看到了聯屬網絡營銷業務的很多機會。我們擁有出色的合作夥伴，他們創造並創造了我們 25% 到 30% 的業務。正如我之前所說，我們看到對合作夥伴加入我們平台的強烈需求，並不斷努力將符合我們關於客戶體驗和安裝質量標準的合作夥伴添加到該平台。但這是我們長期以來一直持有的業務的一部分，並且對繼續關注和發展感到非常興奮。

And was that kind of one of the key drivers behind the sequential decrease in sales and marketing per customer?

這是否是每位客戶的銷售額和營銷量連續下降的關鍵驅動因素之一？

Yes. So in our affiliate business, the sales cost is recognized outside of CAC as far as the installation cost, but neutralize for that kind of a one-time event, which caused the steeper decline this quarter. As previously referenced, we've seen 6 sequential quarters of CAC over subscriber value declining.

是的。因此，在我們的聯營業務中，銷售成本在 CAC 之外被確認為安裝成本，但會抵消這種一次性事件，導致本季度出現更大幅度的下降。如前所述，我們已經看到 CAC 用戶價值連續 6 個季度下降。

Next question is coming from Ameet Thakkar from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ameet Thakkar。

Just coming back to the $200 million to $500 million kind of cash generation, appreciating that it will come in kind of different times in forms and fashion. But is all of that cash going to be available to you kind of unencumbered? Or will there be kind of cash traps associated with that, et cetera?

回到 2 億至 5 億美元的現金生成，我們會意識到它會以不同的形式和時尚出現。但所有這些現金都可以不受阻礙地使用嗎？或者是否會存在與此相關的現金陷阱等等？

Yes. We view that as the kind of the nonrestricted amount of cash, so we do have a growing restricted balance as we reserve in our project finance deals. But we weren't thinking about that cash, really the nonrestricted as you called it, the unencumbered amount.

是的。我們認為這是一種不受限制的現金數額，因此我們在項目融資交易中儲備的限制性餘額確實在不斷增加。但我們並沒有考慮這筆現金，實際上就是你們所說的不受限制的、不受限制的金額。

Okay. And then just real quick. You guys have mentioned a couple of times about other states and regions that have kind of accelerated in terms of kind of your sales through there. I was wondering if you could kind of share which states have kind of been most impactful relative to prior periods?

好的。然後很快。你們已經多次提到其他州和地區的銷售額有所加速。我想知道您是否可以分享一下哪些州相對於之前的時期最具影響力？

Yes, sorry, can you repeat that question? Are you asking which states are we seeing strong growth in or future growth states that we're not operating in?

是的，抱歉，您能重複一下這個問題嗎？您是否想問我們在哪些州看到了強勁的增長，或者哪些未來增長的州我們沒有開展業務？

Which states are you seeing strong growth in now?

您現在看到哪些州出現強勁增長？

Yes. So outside of California, we've seen that 25% blended growth. Our Northeastern states are weeding out, pulling those averages up. So we have really robust activities in Massachusetts and Illinois specifically.

是的。因此，在加利福尼亞州之外，我們看到了 25% 的混合增長。我們的東北部各州正在淘汰，從而拉高了這些平均值。因此，我們特別在馬薩諸塞州和伊利諾伊州開展了非常活躍的活動。

Thank you. That concludes the time we have allocated for Q&A. You may now disconnect. We do thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。我們分配給問答的時間到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。我們非常感謝您今天的參與。