Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sunrun 投資者關係高級副總裁 Patrick Jobin。請繼續。

Thank you, Sherry. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements. Please also note, these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

謝謝你，雪莉。在我們開始之前，請注意，我們將在本次電話會議中發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大和不利的差異。請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。另請注意，這些聲明是從今天起發布的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

During today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can provide meaningful supplemental information for investors regarding the performance of our business and facilitate a meaningful evaluation of current period performance on a comparable basis with prior periods. These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as a supplement to and not as a substitute for, superior to, or in isolation from GAAP results. You will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call in our press release issued this afternoon and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our website.

在今天的電話會議上，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們相信這些指標可以為投資者提供有關我們業務業績的有意義的補充信息，並有助於在與前期可比的基礎上對本期業績進行有意義的評估。這些非公認會計原則財務指標應被視為對公認會計原則結果的補充，而不是替代、優於或孤立於公認會計原則結果。您可以在我們今天下午發布的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到有關今天電話會議中討論的非公認會計準則財務措施的更多披露信息，每份文件均發佈在我們的網站上。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO; Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Executive Chairman and Co-Founder, is also on the call for the Q&A session.

今天參加電話會議的是 Sunrun 執行長 Mary Powell； Danny Abajian，Sunrun 財務長； Sunrun 聯合執行董事長兼共同創辦人 Ed Fenster 也參加了問答環節。

A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript, including Q&A, will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. We have allocated 60 minutes for today's call, including the Q&A session.

Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了簡報以及補充資料。今天電話會議的音訊重播以及今天準備好的言論和文字記錄（包括問答）將在電話會議後不久發佈到 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上。我們為今天的電話會議分配了 60 分鐘時間，包括問答環節。

And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

現在讓我把電話轉給瑪莉。

Thank you, Patrick. As you all know, this has been a volatile time across the solar industry with changes in important policies and rising interest rates, leading to difficult conditions in the sector. We are taking action and responding to this environment, which results to growth outlook than we expected at the start of the year. We are also sharpening our focus on cash generation and continue to execute a customer-first sustainable growth strategy that does not require equity funding.

謝謝你，派崔克。眾所周知，這是整個太陽能產業的一個動盪時期，重要政策的變化和利率的上升，導致該行業的處境困難。我們正在採取行動應對這種環境，這導致成長前景超出我們年初的預期。我們也加強對現金產生的關注，並持續執行不需要股權融資的客戶至上的永續成長策略。

Here is what we are doing to respond to these tough conditions and improve our position. First, we are reshaping the business to be storage-first. During the quarter, we rapidly accelerated storage adoption. And as a result, we are growing our lead as America's clean energy company, one that delivers a superior value proposition to customers and creates multiple value streams for our shareholders. This is a significant national change management exercise and one that most competitors have not yet undertaken.

以下是我們正在採取的措施來應對這些嚴峻的條件並提高我們的地位。首先，我們正在將業務重塑為儲存優先。在本季度，我們迅速加速了儲存的採用。因此，我們正在擴大作為美國清潔能源公司的領先地位，為客戶提供卓越的價值主張，並為我們的股東創造多種價值流。這是一項重要的國家變革管理活動，大多數競爭對手尚未進行。

Second, we have made thoughtful decisions on solar-only volume. We are not chasing growth that has subpar economics. Therefore, we rejected opportunities for growth in Q4 that did not meet our return hurdles.

其次，我們對純太陽能量做出了深思熟慮的決定。我們並不是追求經濟效益不佳的成長。因此，我們拒絕了第四季度未達到回報障礙的成長機會。

Third, we intensified cost reductions through both process efficiency and a best-in-class artificial intelligence team. We have improved the customer experience and built a strong foundation to deliver increased value to customers over time.

第三，我們透過流程效率和一流的人工智慧團隊加強成本降低。我們改善了客戶體驗，並為隨著時間的推移為客戶提供更高的價值奠定了堅實的基礎。

We installed 176-megawatt hours of storage capacity in Q3, growing 131% compared to the prior year and 68% from the prior quarter. We now have more than 1.1 gigawatt hours of storage capacity installed across the country.

第三季我們安裝了 176 兆瓦時的儲存容量，年增 131%，季增 68%。目前，我們在全國範圍內安裝了超過 1.1 吉瓦時的儲存容量。

Our storage offerings provide customers enhanced value and generate significantly higher margins for Sunrun while providing a foundation for future monitoring in the years to come.

我們的儲存產品為客戶提供了更高的價值，並為 Sunrun 帶來了更高的利潤，同時為未來幾年的監控奠定了基礎。

Our storage attachment rate was over 33% of our installations across the country in the third quarter, a significant increase from just 15% starting the year, and we expect this percentage will continue to climb. Our accelerating storage attachment rate presents a powerful opportunity to grow our clean energy generation business by providing at-scale distributed power plant capabilities across America.

第三季度，我們的儲存附加率佔全國安裝量的 33% 以上，比年初的 15% 有了顯著提高，我們預計這一比例將繼續攀升。我們不斷加快的儲存附加率提供了一個強大的機會，透過在美國各地提供大規模分散式發電廠能力來發展我們的清潔能源發電業務。

We are driving enhanced customer value and forging valuable long-term relationships with our customers. In Q4, we launched our storage retrofit offering with strong early results. In the quarters ahead, we expect to be installing meaningful volumes of storage in our existing customer base as we have thousands of customers who have already expressed interest in the product.

我們致力於提高客戶價值並與客戶建立有價值的長期關係。在第四季度，我們推出了儲存改造產品，並取得了良好的早期成果。在未來幾個季度，我們預計將在現有客戶群中安裝大量存儲，因為我們有數千名客戶已經對該產品表示了興趣。

Being the chosen trusted provider to deliver this clean energy future is critical. As a testament to our customer-first approach, our customer Net Promoter Scores at the time of install increased nearly 7 percentage points compared to the prior year to approximately 70 points in Q3.

成為被選擇的值得信賴的供應商來實現清潔能源的未來至關重要。作為我們客戶至上方法的證明，我們的客戶在安裝時的淨推薦值與去年同期相比增加了近 7 個百分點，在第三季達到約 70 分。

We will launch an early renewal program in the coming quarter to provide customers with the opportunity to renew their subscriptions and lock in the benefits of our relationship. Our earliest customers have agreements scheduled to auto renew in about 2.5 years. This program also provides Sunrun with essential learning so we can scale effectively and take advantage of significant upside opportunities for cash generation in periods ahead.

我們將在下個季度啟動提前續訂計劃，為客戶提供續訂的機會並鎖定我們關係的好處。我們最早的客戶已簽訂協議，計劃在大約 2.5 年內自動續約。該計劃還為 Sunrun 提供了必要的學習機會，以便我們能夠有效地擴大規模，並利用未來時期產生現金的重大上升機會。

During the third quarter, we came in slightly below the midpoint of our guidance range on solar installation volume, deploying 258 megawatts of solar capacity as we increased our focus on higher-value sales to storage plus solar customers. In the third quarter, we grew our customer base to over 900,000 and representing 6.5 gigawatts of installed solar capacity.

第三季度，我們的太陽能安裝量指導範圍略低於中點，部署了 258 兆瓦的太陽能容量，因為我們更加專注於向儲存和太陽能客戶提供更高價值的銷售。第三季度，我們的客戶群成長至超過 90 萬名，太陽能裝置容量達到 6.5 吉瓦。

According to recent market research, we are not only the largest residential solar company in the United States, but in fact, we are second largest even when you include utility-scale solar. Overall, we are reiterating our commitment to drive meaningful cash generation. We aim to show the strength of our model with our customer-first approach and differentiation as the leader in storage, executing against our disciplined growth and margin-focused strategy.

根據最近的市場研究，我們不僅是美國最大的住宅太陽能公司，而且事實上，即使包括公用事業規模的太陽能，我們也是第二大公司。總體而言，我們重申我們致力於推動有意義的現金產生。我們的目標是透過客戶至上的方法和作為儲存領域領導者的差異化來展示我們模式的優勢，並執行我們嚴格的成長和以利潤為中心的策略。

We had $952 million in total cash at quarter end, and we have a durable funding model with no equity needs.

截至季末，我們的現金總額為 9.52 億美元，且我們擁有持久的融資模式，沒有股權需求。

Turning to Slide 5, to double-click on our market leadership in California. The rate structure transition in California continues to present opportunities for Sunrun as we extend our lead with our pro-consumer solar + storage offering. While demand has been slower to recover than we were expecting, we believe the opportunity remains significant, given increasing utility rates and frequent grid outages.

轉到幻燈片 5，雙擊我們在加州的市場領先地位。隨著我們透過面向消費者的太陽能+儲存產品擴大領先地位，加州的費率結構轉型繼續為 Sunrun 帶來機會。儘管需求恢復速度比我們預期的要慢，但考慮到公用事業費率不斷上升和頻繁的電網停電，我們認為機會仍然很大。

While industry data is lagging, anecdotal information on market trends suggest we have or will be gaining share in California and expect this to accelerate in periods ahead given our expertise in storage and subscription offerings.

雖然行業數據滯後，但有關市場趨勢的軼事信息表明，我們已經或將會在加利福尼亞州獲得份額，並且鑑於我們在存儲和訂閱產品方面的專業知識，預計這種情況將在未來一段時間內加速。

Sunrun storage attachment rates in our direct business are over 85% of sales in California and closer to 100% in the investor-owned utility service territories. This is substantially higher than the rest of the industry, which we observed at less than 40% attachment rates. Importantly, we believe this provides customers with the best clean energy offering.

我們直接業務中的 Sunrun 儲存附加率超過加州銷售額的 85%，在投資者擁有的公用事業服務領域接近 100%。這大大高於行業其他公司，我們觀察到這些公司的依戀率低於 40%。重要的是，我們相信這為客戶提供了最好的清潔能源產品。

As compared to solar-only installations in California, customers enjoy similar utility bill savings with backup storage and significantly more savings with our Shift product.

與加州僅使用太陽能的安裝相比，客戶透過備份儲存可節省類似的公用事業費用，而使用我們的 Shift 產品可節省更多費用。

Our Shift and backup Storage products also provide stronger margins and future revenue opportunities for Sunrun as we network storage systems together to form distributed power plants, enhancing grid reliability and accelerating the transition to clean energy resources across the state.

我們的轉移和備份儲存產品也為 Sunrun 提供了更高的利潤和未來的收入機會，因為我們將儲存系統聯網形成分散式發電廠，提高電網可靠性並加速全州向清潔能源的過渡。

Turning to Slide 6. We continue to execute our margin-focused growth strategy. This quarter, we took action, responding to higher interest rates with continued go-to-market optimization, remaining disciplined in how we participate in the affiliate partner segment of the market and focusing on our leadership in storage products. These actions are fundamentally geared towards maximizing valuation creation for our shareholders. Because of these actions, we are adjusting our outlook for the full year.

轉向投影片 6。我們繼續執行以利潤為中心的成長策略。本季度，我們採取了行動，透過持續的市場優化來應對更高的利率，在參與市場聯屬合作夥伴細分市場的方式上保持嚴格，並專注於我們在儲存產品方面的領導地位。這些行動從根本上來說是為了最大限度地為我們的股東創造估值。由於這些行動，我們正在調整全年的前景。

We are now guiding to 220 to 245 megawatts of solar capacity installations in Q4, which implies full year growth of approximately 2% to 5%, less than our prior guidance of 10% to 15% growth for the full year. Because of our strategic focus on storage products, both for new customers and existing customers, we are also introducing guidance of approximately 71% to 78% growth in storage capacity installed for 2023, which accelerates our cash generation trajectory.

我們目前指導第四季度太陽能裝置容量為 220 至 245 兆瓦，這意味著全年增長約 2% 至 5%，低於我們先前預測的全年增長 10% 至 15%。由於我們的策略重點是針對新客戶和現有客戶的儲存產品，我們也推出了 2023 年安裝的儲存容量成長約 71% 至 78% 的指導，這加速了我們的現金產生軌跡。

There are 4 key drivers of our revised outlook for solar capacity installations as we highlight on the presentation slide. First, we remain focused on providing the most pro-consumer offering in California. While the opportunity remains strong in California, the rebound is taking longer than we initially expected. Sales in Q3 recovered from Q2 following the transition to the new rate structure and have increased by almost 15% from the prior quarter. They're still approximately down 1/3 compared to the prior year.

正如我們在簡報投影片中所強調的那樣，我們修訂後的太陽能裝機前景有 4 個關鍵驅動因素。首先，我們仍然專注於在加州提供最有利於消費者的產品。儘管加州的機會依然強勁，但反彈所需的時間比我們最初預期的要長。過渡到新的費率結構後，第三季的銷售額較第二季有所回升，較上一季成長了近 15%。與去年相比，仍約下降 1/3。

We have great customer offers that are compelling in a market where grid outages are ramping and utility prices are increasing rapidly. We offer Shift, our simple non-backup product, and our more sophisticated backup storage product. We believe our Shift offering and Backup Storage products are the best options for customers and through our grid services programs, deliver the most long-term value both for Sunrun and the communities where we operate.

我們提供優質的客戶服務，在電網停電不斷加劇、公用事業價格迅速上漲的市場中極具吸引力。我們提供 Shift、簡單的非備份產品和更複雜的備份儲存產品。我們相信我們的輪班產品和備份儲存產品是客戶的最佳選擇，並透過我們的網格服務計劃為 Sunrun 和我們營運所在的社區提供最長期的價值。

Based on recent conversations with customers following the midyear policy change in California, it is apparent that the new regulatory environment has caused confusion for many consumers about the true value proposition for solar-only systems. It is taking time for consumers to adapt to the new policy and to understand that storage products are now, by far, the best consumer product offerings in California. All of our storage product offerings continue to far outpace solar-only sales. As the long-term owner of assets, our interests are aligned to deliver the best customer value and to continue to invest in products that benefit our customers in the short and long term.

根據加州年中政策變化後最近與客戶的對話，很明顯，新的監管環境使許多消費者對純太陽能係統的真正價值主張感到困惑。消費者需要時間來適應新政策並了解儲存產品目前是加州最好的消費產品。我們所有的儲存產品銷售量持續遠遠超過太陽能產品的銷售量。作為資產的長期所有者，我們的利益一致，以提供最佳的客戶價值，並繼續投資於短期和長期使客戶受益的產品。

The good news is that the value proposition of our Shift offering is strong, with typical year 1 savings of 10% to 30%. Savings will only increase as utility rates increase. For instance, PG&E may get approval to increase rates by 13% in January. California is committed to electrification. Rates are likely to increase rapidly, and power shutoff events will continue to drive customers to seek more affordable and reliable clean energy sources. While California gets a lot of attention, it's important to note the benefits of running a diversified business, which operates in many states. Installations outside of California have been robust, growing over 25% in Q3 compared to the prior year, while sales also continued to grow at double digits from the prior year.

好消息是，我們的 Shift 產品的價值主張很強大，通常第一年可節省 10% 至 30%。儲蓄只會隨著公用事業費率的增加而增加。例如，PG&E 可能會在 1 月獲得批准將費率提高 13%。加州致力於電氣化。電價可能會迅速上漲，停電事件將繼續促使客戶尋求更實惠、更可靠的清潔能源。雖然加州受到廣泛關注，但重要的是要注意經營在許多州開展業務的多元化企業的好處。加州以外地區的安裝量一直強勁，第三季較上年增長超過 25%，而銷售額也較上年繼續以兩位數增長。

Second, the business transition we are undergoing to become a storage-first company requires retraining thousands of sales and installation personnel. In time, the rapid increase in attachment rates for higher-value storage offerings will deliver better net subscriber values and increased opportunities for good service programs. We are pleased with consumers' interest and uptake rates of our backup battery product, which has outsold our Shift product.

其次，我們正在經歷業務轉型，成為一家以儲存為先的公司，這需要對數千名銷售和安裝人員進行再培訓。隨著時間的推移，高價值儲存產品的附加率的快速成長將帶來更好的淨用戶價值並增加優質服務計劃的機會。我們對消費者對我們的備用電池產品的興趣和採用率感到滿意，該產品的銷售量超過了我們的 Shift 產品。

This is favorable development as systems with back-up storage have higher margins. But these systems are more sophisticated to permit and install and therefore, carry elongated cycle times between sales and installation. We are working through this accelerated change management as our operations teams learn to optimize processes and our sales teams refine how they communicate the more sophisticated and nuanced value proposition to customers.

這是有利的發展，因為具有備份儲存的系統具有更高的利潤。但這些系統的授權和安裝更加複雜，因此銷售和安裝之間的周期時間較長。我們正在透過這種加速變革管理，我們的營運團隊學習優化流程，我們的銷售團隊改進向客戶傳達更複雜、更細緻的價值主張的方式。

Third, we are disciplined in how we participate through affiliate channel partners. We value companies that are focused on customer experience that value our brand, platform, storage-first product suite and sustainable pricing model. We value partners that share a long-term orientation and are embracing the transition to a storage + solar future.

第三，我們透過聯屬通路夥伴參與的方式受到嚴格約束。我們重視那些注重客戶體驗、重視我們的品牌、平台、儲存優先的產品套件和永續定價模式的公司。我們重視具有長期目標並擁抱向儲存+太陽能未來過渡的合作夥伴。

We are seeing pockets of irrational behavior in the affiliate partner segment of the market with several financing-only participants scaling with pricing that we consider unattractive, which can influence short-term sales dealers volume allocations. As a result, we have reduced our volume expectations through the affiliate partner channel in the near term.

我們發現市場的聯屬夥伴領域存在一些非理性行為，一些僅提供融資的參與者以我們認為不具吸引力的定價進行擴張，這可能會影響短期銷售經銷商的銷售分配。因此，我們在短期內降低了透過聯盟合作夥伴通路的銷售預期。

We've seen this behavior several times in the company's 16-year history and won't chase volumes at economics that we do not view as sustainable. We believe our diversified market approach, which includes an integrated sales force and fulfillment capacity provides insulation from these behaviors from financing-only firms and is a strategic benefit to Sunrun.

在該公司 16 年的歷史中，我們已經多次看到這種行為，並且不會在我們認為不可持續的經濟上追逐銷售。我們相信，我們的多元化市場方法（包括整合的銷售團隊和履行能力）可以避免純融資公司的這些行為，並且對 Sunrun 來說是一項策略性利益。

Fourth, we are adjusting our geographic mix, sales channels and product offerings to adapt to the new interest rate environment. In the near term, these actions will maximize subscriber values and storage installations rather than solar megawatt volumes. This includes repositioning our geographic mix such as exiting our direct business in Arizona earlier in the year and our recent growth in Texas.

第四，我們正在調整地域結構、銷售通路和產品供應，以適應新的利率環境。在短期內，這些行動將最大化用戶價值和儲存安裝，而不是太陽能兆瓦容量。這包括重新定位我們的地理組合，例如今年早些時候退出亞利桑那州的直接業務以及最近在德克薩斯州的增長。

Reducing our solar megawatt annual growth target is not something we take lightly, but our focus on cash generation, having price discipline and leading with a customer-centric mindset are prudent actions to take as we position the company to maximize long-term value as a storage-first company. These actions, coupled with continued cost reductions, will maximize long-term value creation and position us for meaningful cash generation.

降低我們的太陽能兆瓦年度成長目標並不是一件輕而易舉的事情，但我們對現金產生的關注、價格紀律以及以客戶為中心的思維領導是我們在定位公司以實現長期價值最大化時所採取的謹慎行動。儲存第一的公司。這些行動，加上持續的成本削減，將最大限度地創造長期價值，並使我們能夠產生有意義的現金。

Taking a step back amidst all the equity market volatility and near-term headwinds from higher interest rates and difficult market conditions in the sector, the long-term value drivers are intact and Sunrun's position in the market has improved. We have been able to adapt to the higher interest rate environment as our pricing adjustments have coincided with utility rate inflation while utility service reliability continues to deteriorate. We are at the beginning of a massive transition towards a lower electricity use at the home and can offer an affordable, reliable source of clean energy for millions of households.

在股市波動以及利率上升和該行業困難的市場狀況帶來的近期阻力中，退一步說，長期價值驅動因素完好無損，Sunrun 在市場中的地位也有所改善。我們能夠適應較高的利率環境，因為我們的定價調整與公用事業費率通膨同時發生，而公用事業服務可靠性持續惡化。我們正處於向降低家庭用電量的大規模轉型的開始，可以為數百萬家庭提供負擔得起的、可靠的清潔能源。

I firmly believe that this challenging macroeconomic environment actually gives us opportunities to accelerate our long-term leadership position in the industry. I am confident we will capitalize on the market shifts to strengthen our position by remaining customer-focused and long-term oriented.

我堅信，這種充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境實際上為我們提供了加速我們在產業中長期領導地位的機會。我相信，我們將利用市場變化，透過保持以客戶為中心和長期導向來鞏固我們的地位。

Speaking of customer focus and discipline, again, this quarter, I want to celebrate our teams across the country in the field and in our offices who are helping accelerate this customer-led revolution in energy and practicing our strong culture of doing it safely and efficiently.

再次談到客戶關注和紀律，本季度，我想讚揚我們遍布全國的現場和辦公室團隊，他們幫助加速了這場客戶主導的能源革命，並實踐了我們安全高效的強大文化。

This quarter, we are recognizing not 1 but 2 top-performing teams in the country. First, thank you to our top-ranked install crew based on performance, safety and customer experience from Tampa, Florida. Second, our top-ranked sales team based on growth storage attachment rates and customer experience from Fresno, California. Go Fresno and Tampa, I know you are listening, and we appreciate you. Thank you for your contributions and leadership at Sunrun.

本季度，我們表彰的不是 1 支而是 2 支國內表現最佳的球隊。首先，感謝我們來自佛羅裡達州坦帕的基於性能、安全性和客戶體驗的一流安裝人員。其次，我們排名靠前的銷售團隊是基於加州弗雷斯諾的儲存附加率成長和客戶體驗。去弗雷斯諾和坦帕，我知道你們在聽，我們感謝你們。感謝您對 Sunrun 的貢獻與領導。

With that, let me turn the call over to Danny for our financial updates.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給丹尼，以了解我們的財務最新情況。

Thank you, Mary. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook.

謝謝你，瑪麗。今天，我將介紹我們本季的營運和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。

Turning first to the results for the quarter on Slide 11. In the third quarter, solar energy capacity installed was approximately 258 megawatts, a 1% increase from the same quarter last year and within our guidance of 255 to 275 megawatts. Customer additions were approximately 33,800 including approximately 29,300 subscriber additions. Our subscription mix represented 89% of our deployments in the period, a meaningful increase from 83% last quarter and the highest level in 2 years. We have now installed over 76,000 solar and storage systems. We expect storage installations will grow substantially in the quarters ahead.

首先看投影片 11 上的季度結果。第三季度，太陽能裝置容量約為 258 兆瓦，比去年同期成長 1%，在我們 255 至 275 兆瓦的指導範圍內。新增客戶約 33,800 名，其中新增訂戶約 29,300 名。我們的訂閱組合佔該期間部署的 89%，比上季度的 83% 顯著增加，達到兩年來的最高水準。我們現已安裝超過 76,000 個太陽能和儲存系統。我們預計儲存安裝量將在未來幾季大幅成長。

Sales of storage attached systems have grown to over 40% nationally, which had continued to drive installed attachment rates meaningfully higher in future periods. Our backup storage offerings carry higher margins typically by several thousand dollars per customer.

儲存附加系統的銷量在全國範圍內已增長到 40% 以上，這將繼續推動未來時期的附加安裝率顯著提高。我們的備份儲存產品的利潤率通常較高，每位客戶通常可達數千美元。

During the quarter, we installed 176 megawatts of storage capacity, an increase of 131% from the same quarter last year, bringing total network storage capacity to over 1.1 gigawatt hours.

本季度，我們安裝了 176 兆瓦的儲存容量，比去年同期成長了 131%，使網路儲存總容量超過 1.1 吉瓦時。

We ended Q3 with approximately 93,000 customers and 754,000 subscribers, representing 6.5 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, an increase of 20% year-over-year. Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide.

截至第三季度，我們擁有約 93,000 名客戶和 754,000 名訂戶，相當於 6.5 吉瓦的網路太陽能容量，年增 20%。我們的訂戶透過我們提供的清潔能源合約大多都在 20 年或 25 年以下，從而產生了可觀的經常性收入。

At the end of Q3, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at over $1.2 billion, up 28% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.

截至第三季末，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 超過 12 億美元，比去年同期成長 28%。我們的平均合約期限剩餘近 18 年。

Turning to Slide 12. In Q3, subscriber value was approximately $47,100 and creation cost was approximately $36,000, delivering a net subscriber value of $11,030. Our Q3 subscriber value and net subscriber value now reflect the blended 31% investment tax credit, benefiting from approximately 13% of our subscriber mix that qualified for the energy communities ITC adder in the quarter.

轉向投影片 12。第三季度，訂閱者價值約為 47,100 美元，創建成本約為 36,000 美元，淨訂閱者價值為 11,030 美元。我們第三季的用戶價值和淨用戶價值現在反映了 31% 的混合投資稅收抵免，受益於我們本季約 13% 的用戶組合符合能源社群 ITC 附加條件。

Total value generated, which is net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $323 million in the third quarter.

第三季產生的總價值為 3.23 億美元，即淨用戶價值乘以該期間新增用戶數量。

Our present value-based metrics are presented using a 6% discount rate, but our financial underwriting already accounts for our current cost of capital, which is slightly below 8%.

我們目前基於價值的指標採用 6% 的折現率，但我們的財務核保已經考慮了我們目前的資本成本，略低於 8%。

As a reminder, to enable ease of comparison across periods, we generally do not update the discount rate frequently. Instead, we provide advanced rate ranges that reflect current interest rates, enabling investors to calculate the obtainable net unit cash -- net cash unit margins on our deployments. In addition, we provide a pro forma net subscriber value using the cost of capital observed for the quarter. At an 8% discount rate, net subscriber value was $4,715 and total value generated was $138 million.

提醒一下，為了方便跨期間比較，我們一般不會頻繁地更新貼現率。相反，我們提供反映當前利率的高級利率範圍，使投資者能夠計算可獲得的淨單位現金——我們部署的淨現金單位利潤。此外，我們也使用本季觀察到的資本成本提供了預期淨訂戶價值。以 8% 的折扣率計算，淨訂戶價值為 4,715 美元，產生的總價值為 1.38 億美元。

Turning to Slide 13. We expect meaningful tailwinds to net subscriber value in future periods from the realization of additional ITC adders and from lower hardware prices we are seeing on our current procurement activities. While the energy communities ITC adder was operationalized in Q3, additional cash proceeds for systems that qualify for the low income and domestic content ITC adders are expected to be realized in the coming quarters. The first low-income adder application window has opened and quota allocation awards are expected in late Q4 or early 2024.

轉向幻燈片 13。我們預計，由於額外 ITC 加法器的實現以及我們當前採購活動中硬體價格的降低，未來一段時間內的淨用戶價值將產生有意義的推動作用。雖然能源社群 ITC 加法器已在第三季度投入運營，但符合低收入和國內內容 ITC 加法器資格的系統的額外現金收益預計將在未來幾個季度實現。第一個低收入加法申請窗口已開放，配額分配預計將於第四季末或 2024 年初發放。

Guidance on what will qualify for the domestic content adder has been issued, but additional rule-making processes are not expected until into 2024. Combined, these 3 adders represent up to $450 million or more in additional annual run rate cash proceeds.

關於國內內容添加者資格的指南已經發布，但預計要到 2024 年才會有額外的規則制定流程。這 3 個添加者合計代表了高達 4.5 億美元或更多的額外年度運行率現金收益。

We are also seeing rapidly decreasing prices for key hardware components, which will start to flow through our reported costs over the next few quarters as we work through our higher cost inventory. On a like-for-like basis for a 7.5-kilowatt solar with backup battery system, by the end of next year, hardware costs are expected to decline by over 20% or nearly $3,000 per system from their second quarter peaks. These beneficial trends may be obscured by an increasing mix of storage, which carries higher net margins but will increase hardware and install costs and therefore, impact creation costs.

我們還看到關鍵硬體組件的價格迅速下降，隨著我們處理成本較高的庫存，這些組件將在接下來的幾個季度開始流入我們的報告成本。與配備備用電池系統的 7.5 千瓦太陽能相比，到明年年底，硬體成本預計將比第二季度的峰值下降 20% 以上，即每個系統的成本將下降近 3,000 美元。這些有益的趨勢可能會被儲存組合的增加所掩蓋，儲存組合的淨利潤更高，但會增加硬體和安裝成本，從而影響創建成本。

Turning to Slide 14. We have presented a pro forma net subscriber value to show the potential impact to unit margins from the forthcoming ITC adders, if fully realized, along with the hardware cost tailwinds we expect in the coming quarters. Based on our mix of business in Q3, pro forma net subscriber value with these benefits was approximately $14,800 at a 6% discount rate and $8,500 at an 8% discount rate.

轉向幻燈片 14。我們提出了預計的淨用戶價值，以顯示即將推出的 ITC 加法器（如果完全實現的話）對單位利潤率的潛在影響，以及我們預計在未來幾個季度的硬體成本推動因素。根據我們第三季的業務組合，以 6% 折扣率計算，預計淨訂戶價值約為 14,800 美元，以 8% 折扣率計算，淨訂戶價值約為 8,500 美元。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet on Slide 16. Gross earning assets were $13.3 billion at the end of the third quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from subscribers over time, net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures and distributions to project equity financing partners all discounted at a 6% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向幻燈片 16 上的總盈利資產和淨盈利資產以及我們的資產負債表。第三季末的總盈利資產為 133 億美元。總獲利資產是我們預計隨著時間的推移從認購者那裡收到的現金流量的衡量標準，扣除營運和維護成本、對稅務股權合作夥伴的分配​​、合夥企業翻轉結構以及對專案股權融資合作夥伴的分配，全部以6% 的無槓桿資本成本折現。

Net earning assets were $4.6 billion at the end of the third quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Net earning assets increased by $130 million this quarter. Net earning assets does not include inventory or other construction and progress assets or net derivative assets related to our interest rate swaps, all of which represent additional value.

第三季末淨獲利資產為46億美元。淨獲利資產是總獲利資產加上現金減去所有債務。本季淨獲利資產增加1.3億美元。淨利潤資產不包括庫存或其他建設和進度資產或與我們的利率掉期相關的淨衍生資產，所有這些都代表附加價值。

In addition, value creation upside we expect from future grid services opportunities and selling additional electrification grid products and services to our customer base including our storage retrofit offering are not reflected in these metrics.

此外，我們預期未來電網服務機會以及向我們的客戶群銷售以外的電氣化電網產品和服務（包括我們的儲存改造產品）帶來的價值創造優勢並未反映在這些指標中。

We regularly enter into interest rate swaps to hedge capital costs on our newly installed customers. We are principally exposed to interest rate fluctuations between customer origination through shortly after installation when our systems are financed with project-level non-recourse debt. Nearly all of this financing is insulated from near-term interest rate fluctuations as our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, we do not adjust the discount rate used in net earning assets to match current capital costs for new installations.

我們定期進行利率互換，以對沖新客戶的資本成本。當我們的系統由專案級無追索權債務融資時，我們主要面臨客戶發起到安裝後不久之間的利率波動。幾乎所有這些融資都不受近期利率波動的影響，因為我們的債務要么是固定息票長期證券，要么是透過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率貸款。因此，我們不會調整淨收益資產中使用的折現率來匹配新安裝的當前資本成本。

We ended the quarter with $952 million in total cash, an increase of $31 million compared to the prior quarter. We paid down our recourse working capital facility by $35 million as well.

本季結束時，我們的現金總額為 9.52 億美元，比上一季增加了 3,100 萬美元。我們還支付了 3500 萬美元的追索營運資本貸款。

Turning briefly to our capital markets activities and outlook on Slide 17. We currently realize project-level capital cost slightly below 8%, which is a weighted average of our non-recourse senior and subordinated debt interest rates. Our cost of capital indications are informed by both realized terms on our transactions as well as observable market data such as longer-term treasury yields as a proxy for our base rate and credit spreads across numerous comparable transactions completed in our sector.

簡單介紹一下投影片 17 上我們的資本市場活動和前景。我們目前實現的專案級資本成本略低於 8%，這是我們的無追索權優先和次級債務利率的加權平均值。我們的資本成本指標取決於我們交易的已實現條款以及可觀察的市場數據，例如作為我們基本利率代理的長期國債收益率以及我們行業中完成的眾多可比交易的信用利差。

During the quarter, we successfully executed the largest-ever residential solar securitization, raising $715 million at a credit spread of 240 basis points, a 25 basis point improvement from our public -- prior public securitization in May of this year. Similar to prior transactions, we also raised an additional $253 million of subordinated non-recourse debt on the portfolio, bringing the cumulative advance rate to slightly above 84% of contracted subscriber value, exceeding the range we provided last quarter.

本季度，我們成功執行了有史以來最大規模的住宅太陽能證券化，以 240 個基點的信貸利差籌集了 7.15 億美元，比今年 5 月之前的公共證券化提高了 25 個基點。與先前的交易類似，我們還在投資組合中額外籌集了2.53 億美元的次級無追索權債務，使累計預付款率略高於簽約訂戶價值的84%，超出了我們上季度提供的範圍。

We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 235 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the third quarter. Sunrun also had $555 million in unused commitments available in its $1.8 billion non-recourse senior revolving warehouse loan at the end of the quarter to fund approximately 195 megawatts of projects for subscribers. This strong capital runway allows us to be selective in timing our capital markets activity.

我們繼續保持穩健的專案融資跑道。截至今天，已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收股權能力，可以為訂戶超過第三季度部署的超過 235 兆瓦的項目提供資金。截至本季末，Sunrun 的 18 億美元無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款中還有 5.55 億美元未使用的承諾，可為訂戶提供約 195 兆瓦的專案資金。這條強大的資本跑道使我們能夠有選擇地選擇資本市場活動的時機。

We recently closed our first tax equity fund, which leverages the new tax credit transferability provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, enabling us to more easily monetize tax credits with large corporate buyers. As more corporations become familiar with this new structure, we expect transferability funds to become a large part of our funding strategy. This will deepen and diversify our investor universe.

我們最近關閉了我們的第一個稅收股權基金，該基金利用了《通貨膨脹減少法案》中新的稅收抵免可轉讓性條款，使我們能夠更輕鬆地將稅收抵免貨幣化給大型企業買家。隨著越來越多的公司熟悉這種新結構，我們預計可轉讓基金將成為我們融資策略的重要組成部分。這將深化我們的投資者領域並使其多元化。

Given the increased scale of our business, we plan to complete an upsize an extension of our nonrecourse warehouse loan in the coming few months as we have done several times before. We are also planning to extend our asset-based recourse working capital facility in 2024, ahead of its January 2025 maturity, as we have done several times before as well.

鑑於我們業務規模的擴大，我們計劃在未來幾個月內完成無追索權倉庫貸款的擴大和延期，正如我們之前多次所做的那樣。我們還計劃在 2024 年延長我們的基於資產的追索權營運資金安排，提前於 2025 年 1 月到期，正如我們之前多次所做的那樣。

Our working capital facility syndicate includes a diversified group of 13 relationship lenders. Both loans are floating rate and neither is constrained by current borrowing base limitations.

我們的營運資金融資銀團包括由 13 家關係貸款機構組成的多元化集團。兩項貸款均為浮動利率，且均不受目前借款基礎限制的限制。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 19. We continue to believe the market is very underpenetrated and can sustain robust growth throughout this decade. In this strong long-term demand backdrop, our priority is to generate cash by continuing to increase customer values through growing storage adoption and other higher-value products and services and reducing costs by driving further efficiencies across the business.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 19 的展望。我們仍然相信市場滲透率非常低，並且可以在這十年中保持強勁增長。在這種強勁的長期需求背景下，我們的首要任務是透過增加儲存採用率和其他更高價值的產品和服務來繼續增加客戶價值，並透過進一步提高整個業務的效率來降低成本，從而產生現金。

Given our storage-first company strategy, we are introducing guidance for storage capacity installed. Storage capacity installed is expected to be in a range of 180 to 200 megawatt hours in Q4. This represents 108% to 131% growth year-over-year. For the full year 2023, this range represents 71% to 78% growth.

鑑於我們儲存優先的公司策略，我們正在引入已安裝的儲存容量指南。預計第四季度安裝的儲存容量將在 180 至 200 兆瓦時之間。這意味著同比增長 108% 至 131%。對於 2023 年全年，此範圍代表著 71% 至 78% 的成長。

Solar energy capacity installed is expected to be in a range of 220 to 245 megawatts in Q4. This represents full year 2023 growth of approximately 2% to approximately 5%, compared to our prior guidance range of 10% to 15% growth for the full year 2023. This reduction is due to the strategic decisions we have made to prioritize cash generation and lean further into our storage product offering as well as other factors we have noted.

預計第四季太陽能裝置容量將在 220 至 245 兆瓦之間。這意味著 2023 年全年增長約 2% 至約 5%，而我們先前的指導範圍為 2023 年全年增長 10% 至 15%。這一下降是由於我們做出了優先考慮現金生成和進一步關注我們的儲存產品以及我們注意到的其他因素。

We have -- we expect net subscriber value to be stable in Q4 compared to Q3. As we transition our mix to higher-value storage systems these more complex and time-consuming installations result in more costs being realized for systems that have not yet met the definition of installed.

我們預計第四季的淨用戶價值將與第三季相比保持穩定。當我們將組合轉向更高價值的儲存系統時，這些更複雜且耗時的安裝會導致尚未滿足已安裝定義的系統產生更多成本。

Our outlook does not include additional ITC adder benefits as we expect them to be realized in 2024, although this could occur sooner based on the pace of government processes.

我們的展望不包括額外的 ITC 附加收益，因為我們預計這些收益將在 2024 年實現，儘管根據政府流程的進度，這可能會更快實現。

As is our practice, we will provide 2024 guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call. As Q1 2024 will have a significantly higher year-over-year storage attachment rate, and Q1 of 2023 benefited from the anticipated phaseout of NEM2 in California, we expect year-over-year solar energy capacity installed will decline in that period. While weather is typically a headwind to rooftop solar installations in the winter season, we believe we can make significant progress as we ramp up our storage retrofit offering and also explore renewal opportunities.

按照我們的慣例，我們將在第四季財報電話會議上提供 2024 年指引。由於2024年第一季的儲能附加率將顯著高於去年同期，而2023年第一季受益於加州NEM2的預期淘汰，我們預期該時期太陽能裝置容量將年減。雖然冬季天氣通常是屋頂太陽能裝置的不利因素，但我們相信，隨著我們加強儲存改造並探索更新機會，我們可以取得重大進展。

Turning to Slide 20. We expect our disciplined and focused strategy will allow us to capitalize on our long-term opportunity with our current focus on cash generation in 2024. We are reiterating our range of $200 million to $500 million in recurring annual cash generation, which we expect to achieve by the fourth quarter of 2024. We generated cash in the third quarter, and we expect cumulative cash generation to be positive through the end of 2024.

轉向幻燈片20。我們預計，我們嚴格而專注的策略將使我們能夠利用我們的長期機會，目前我們的重點是2024 年的現金產生。我們重申我們每年經常性現金產生的範圍為2 億至5億美元，我們預計在 2024 年第四季實現這一目標。我們在第三季產生了現金，我們預計到 2024 年底，累計現金產生量將為正值。

Keep in mind, cash generation can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter based on project financing timing and inherent seasonality in our business. Our cash generation range is based on assumptions we have outlined on the bottom of Slide 20. We have responded to the higher interest rate environment with our go-to-market optimization actions. We have noted the changes in our assumptions from last quarter on the slide, which include a higher backup storage attachment rate of greater than 40%, a slightly higher weighted average ITC mix of 35% and a cost of capital range of 7.5% to 8%.

請記住，根據專案融資時間和我們業務固有的季節性，每季的現金產生可能會不穩定。我們的現金產生範圍是基於我們在投影片 20 底部概述的假設。我們透過市場優化行動應對了較高的利率環境。我們在投影片上註意到我們的假設與上季相比發生了變化，其中包括高於 40% 的備份儲存附加率、略高的加權平均 ITC 組合 35% 以及資本成本範圍 7.5% 至 8 %。

With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回瑪麗身上。

Thanks, Danny. I am so appreciative of our hardworking teams with passion and ingenuity is helping Sunrun transition to a storage-first company to extend our differentiation, expand our margins and deliver the best value to customers. Importantly, I believe our steadfast commitment to our disciplined growth strategy will maximize the value we can create in the long run.

謝謝，丹尼。我非常感謝我們充滿熱情和創造力的勤奮團隊，他們正在幫助 Sunrun 轉型為一家儲存第一的公司，以擴大我們的差異化、擴大我們的利潤並為客戶提供最佳價值。重要的是，我相信我們對嚴格成長策略的堅定承諾將從長遠來看最大化我們可以創造的價值。

Operator, we're ready for questions.

接線員，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Andrew Percoco。

I just want to dig a little bit more into the backup storage uptake that you're seeing in California. I guess, I'm a little surprised by the demand there, especially since it doesn't appear like there's any bill savings associated with that product. So can you maybe just elaborate on what you're hearing from the customers, specifically as to why they're going to that product versus just sticking with the Sunrun Shift product?

我只是想更深入地了解您在加利福尼亞州看到的備份儲存的使用情況。我想，我對那裡的需求感到有點驚訝，特別是因為該產品似乎並沒有節省任何帳單。那麼您能否詳細說明您從客戶那裡聽到的情況，特別是為什麼他們會選擇該產品而不是僅僅堅持使用 Sunrun Shift 產品？

Yes. Great, Andrew. Thanks. Nice to hear you. Yes, I mean, one of the things we were really pleasantly surprised to accomplish was to really see the uptake in backup home storage outpaced the Shift. So again, as we had talked about when we went into the transition, pleased that we had an innovative product offering with Shift, but we also know that there was significant value for customers to consider whole-home backup.

是的。太棒了，安德魯。謝謝。很高興聽到你的音訊。是的，我的意思是，我們真正驚訝地完成的一件事是真正看到備份家庭儲存的採用速度超過了轉變。再次強調，正如我們在進入轉型時所討論的那樣，我們很高興能夠透過 Shift 提供創新產品，但我們也知道，客戶考慮全家庭備份具有重大價值。

And if you look at the presentation, we really hit very clearly that in terms of the value to customers, the value of home storage, particularly in a state like California, one could say it's actually priceless because of the number of outages and events that happened. But if you look at that, what you'll see is that even with whole-home backup, the -- what we provide to customers is stable pricing sort of equivalent, as we show on the slide, similar to the current price that they're paying for power. So they get to switch over and have similar pricing and have peace of mind, have the capability to store energy and use it when they need it as well as protect themselves from the continuing to escalate rates in states like California.

如果你看一下演示文稿，我們確實非常清楚地指出，就客戶的價值而言，家庭存儲的價值，特別是在像加利福尼亞州這樣的州，人們可以說它實際上是無價的，因為停電和事件的數量發生了。但如果你看一下，你會發現，即使有了整個家庭的備份，我們向客戶提供的也是穩定的定價，就像我們在幻燈片上顯示的那樣，類似於他們當前的價格正在支付電費。因此，他們可以進行轉換，享受相似的定價，安心無憂，有能力儲存能源並在需要時使用它，並保護自己免受加州等州不斷上漲的電費的影響。

So again, PG&E has a request that is poised for next year at 13%. I think the original request was for 26% -- 25% or 26%, and it looks like 13% is going to go through. So that kind of environment, I think, really makes the reliability environment and the price environment is driving a much more robust whole-home backup market. And one of the reasons I should also add that we're really pleased with our investment in Lunar that we've talked about in the past, which is going to be another best-in-class storage offering for customers.

PG&E 再次提出了明年 13% 的要求。我認為最初的請求是 26% - 25% 或 26%，看起來 13% 將會通過。因此，我認為，這種環境確實創造了可靠性環境，而價格環境正在推動更強勁的全家庭備份市場。我還應該補充的原因之一是，我們對過去討論過的對 Lunar 的投資感到非常滿意，這將成為為客戶提供的另一個一流的儲存產品。

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And maybe just as a follow-up, just interested in just your hardware procurement strategy here. I think it's clear that panel prices have been coming down, inverter prices seem to be coming down as well, as well as battery prices there, too. So are you adding additional vendors to your approved vendor list? How is -- are you just buying more at lower prices from existing vendors? How are you kind of managing the current landscape for hardware?

知道了。這很有意義。也許只是作為後續行動，只是對您的硬體採購策略感興趣。我認為很明顯，面板價格一直在下降，逆變器價格似乎也在下降，電池價格也是如此。那麼您是否會將其他供應商添加到已批准的供應商清單中？怎麼樣—您只是從現有供應商以更低的價格購買更多產品嗎？您如何管理目前的硬體情勢？

Yes. I think it's more the latter as opposed to big movement in the number of vendors on the list or the nature of that list. I think it's really driven by procurement activity we're seeing right now.

是的。我認為更多的是後者，而不是清單中供應商數量或清單性質的大幅變動。我認為這實際上是由我們現在看到的採購活動所推動的。

I'd also keep in mind, as we've mentioned a few times here and over time is we still also are in the midst of burning down our elevated position of inventory. So as we cycle through that, we won't necessarily see that deliver into our external metrics right away. But over the course of a few quarters, we definitely will based on the pricing indications and firm pricing we're getting on our purchases today.

我還要記住，正如我們在這裡多次提到的那樣，隨著時間的推移，我們仍然在燃燒我們高位的庫存。因此，當我們循環進行時，我們不一定會立即看到它傳遞到我們的外部指標。但在幾個季度的過程中，我們肯定會根據我們今天購買的定價指示和固定定價。

Next question is from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩李。

I apologize in advance if you already kind of went through this, but I'd be curious if you could maybe give us a bit more detail around where the biggest delta is coming from in the new megawatt installed guidance versus prior, whether it's states, customer types, or maybe how much of a function of this is being less customers being available to meet your return requirements since you're just kind of pulling back. If you could maybe provide a little bit more of a breakdown between where you're seeing the pullback in the volume outlook here.

如果您已經經歷過這一點，我提前表示歉意，但我很好奇您是否可以向我們提供更多有關新兆瓦裝機指南與之前的指南中最大增量來自何處的詳細信息，無論是狀態，客戶類型，或者可能有多少客戶可以滿足您的退貨要求，因為您只是在退縮。如果您可以提供更多關於您在此處看到的成交量前景回調的細分情況。

Yes. I mean as we look at the solar installed megawatt volume outlook. I think as we lay out in the deck -- in the presentation very clearly, I mean, there's basically 3 things driving it, Brian. So one is the trajectory of just like pure up sales recovery in California was a little bit slower than we anticipated. So that definitely impacts the outlook.

是的。我的意思是，當我們審視太陽能裝機兆瓦量的前景時。我認為，當我們在簡報中非常清楚地闡述這一點時，我的意思是，基本上有 3 個因素在推動它，布萊恩。因此，其一是加州純銷售復甦的軌跡比我們預期的要慢一些。所以這肯定會影響前景。

As we also said in the call, we are seeing again, really good numbers, growth numbers in other states. But again, we break it down, showing that, again, we're losing because of a certain amount of -- that change in the uptick in the trajectory. We also leaned in really hard to whole-home backup. So that was something that also really drove our outlook when we saw that we could really make strides in our goals towards cash generation by leveraging customers' interest in storage. And so that's why we also launched the storage retrofit program this quarter as well.

正如我們在電話中所說，我們再次看到其他州的成長數字，非常好。但我們再次將其分解，表明我們再次因為軌跡上升的某種程度的變化而失敗。我們也非常努力地致力於全家庭備份。因此，當我們看到我們可以透過利用客戶對儲存的興趣來實現現金產生的目標時，這也真正推動了我們的前景。這就是為什麼我們也在本季啟動了儲存改造計畫。

And then the other -- the third thing was we were seeing subpar economics in the channel segment of the market. And so we made really strategic decisions to prioritize value over pure solar watt -- solar megawatt growth in certain areas.

然後，第三件事是我們看到市場通路部分的經濟狀況不佳。因此，我們做出了真正的戰略決策，將價值置於純太陽能瓦特之上——某些領域的太陽能兆瓦成長。

Okay. Fair enough. That all makes sense. And then just second question before I pass it on. I know the cash generation target you're reiterating here, $200 million to $500 million by the end of this year. Why is there such a wide delta? I mean, presumably, given it's already November, I mean, presumably financing is a swing factor. One, is that correct? And then two, kind of what sort of options are on the table here through year-end that drive that swing factor? And then what's driving the uncertainty around timing, I suppose, given it's a couple of more months here before the end of the year?

好的。很公平。這一切都是有道理的。然後是第二個問題，然後再繼續。我知道您在這裡重申的現金產生目標，即到今年年底達到 2 億至 5 億美元。為什麼會有如此寬的三角洲？我的意思是，考慮到已經是 11 月了，我的意思是，融資可能是搖擺因素。一、這樣說對嗎？然後兩個，到年底，什麼樣的選擇會推動這個波動因素？那麼，考慮到距離年底還有幾個月，我想是什麼導致了時間上的不確定性？

Brian, it's Danny. I think just to clarify at the top, the guidance for hitting cash generation annualized within the range is specific to the fourth quarter of next year. And then the 5 quarters of total cumulative cash generation is also through the end of next year, not through the end of this year, just to make sure I clarify that because I think that's potentially where the question is coming from and thinking that it's 2023.

布萊恩，是丹尼。我想先澄清一下，實現年化現金產生量在該範圍內的指導是針對明年第四季的。然後，5 個季度的累積現金產生總額也將持續到明年年底，而不是到今年年底，只是為了確保我澄清這一點，因為我認為這可能是問題所在，並認為這是 2023 年。

But I think just generally, looking at the guidance and the assumptions, I think the few changes we've made in the assumption set, we've noted on the page, and as I called out in the remarks, and there's more specificity on the timing and the total cumulative cash generation. But again, that's over the next 5 quarters through the -- taking us through the end of next year, not through the end of this year.

但我認為一般來說，看看指導和假設，我認為我們在假設集中所做的一些改變，我們在頁面上註意到，正如我在評論中指出的，並且有更多的具體性時間和累積現金產生總額。但同樣，這是在接下來的 5 個季度內，直到明年年底，而不是今年年底。

Okay. Understood. Appreciate the clarification. I guess having said that, though, it's still a pretty wide delta. What are kind of the swing factors where you hit 2 versus over 5 quarters?

好的。明白了。感謝您的澄清。我想儘管如此，它仍然是一個相當寬的三角洲。你擊中 2 節和 5 節以上的波動因素是什麼？

You mean the delta between $200 million and $500 million within the range?

您是指該範圍內 2 億美元到 5 億美元之間的增量嗎？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

Yes. Yes. So I think we've noted in the past like -- I'll call out a few, not to hit every single one. But the backup storage mix, and that's when we actually took up version over version as we've seen that strength that we just discussed. The ITC adders, we nudged up slightly from 34% to 35%. The shape of the attainment of that is more back-ended over the course of this period of time.

是的。是的。所以我認為我們過去已經注意到——我會指出一些，而不是擊中每一個。但是備份儲存組合，那時我們實際上採用了版本之上的版本，因為我們已經看到了我們剛才討論的優勢。 ITC 增加者，我們從 34% 略微上升至 35%。在這段時間的過程中，實現這目標的形式更加後端。

And the swing factor there is really -- the last of which comes in is domestic content. And there's generally a wider range of outcomes in domestic content as there is less clarity at the moment, but we remain bullish on the upside there. And that's back-ended.

真正的搖擺因素是──最後一個因素是國內內容。由於目前尚不清楚，國內內容通常會產生更廣泛的結果，但我們仍然看好那裡的上行空間。這是後端的。

Capital costs, we've adjusted the range but are still planning for this amount within that range. And we've -- I think we've noted a quarter point is about 1 percentage point change in our advance rate, which annualizes somewhere in the range of about $50 million, plus or minus. So that gives -- to give you the nearest take on the plus or minus on advance rates. I would say those are the big -- costs falling, equipment costs, another 1 we mentioned that is another factor at play, which is delivering again, over time and increasing cost.

資本成本，我們已經調整了範圍，但仍在該範圍內規劃這一金額。我想我們已經注意到，四分之一個百分點相當於預付款率的 1 個百分點的變化，預付款的年化金額約為 5000 萬美元，上下浮動。這樣就可以為您提供最接近的預付款加減。我想說的是，這些都是大的——成本下降，設備成本，我們提到的另一個起作用的因素，隨著時間的推移，它再次交付並增加了成本。

Our next question is from Joe Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的喬·奧沙。

To follow up on Brian's line of questioning, once we get to the end of 2024, I'm seeing you use words like annualized and recurring. Is the implication that, that level of cash flow generation be something that we can expect to continue and/or grow in future years? Is that what you're signaling with that language? And then I have a couple of other questions.

為了跟進 Brian 的提問，到 2024 年底，我發現您使用了“年度化”和“經常性”等詞語。這是否意味著，我們可以預期這種現金流產生水準在未來幾年會持續和/或成長？這就是你用那種語言發出的訊號嗎？然後我還有其他幾個問題。

Yes. Absolutely, that's the -- the recurrence in nature is both recurring and with the objective of growing it over time once we stick the landing on getting within that range for all the reasons I mentioned.

是的。當然，這就是——自然界中的復發是反覆發生的，一旦我們出於我提到的所有原因將著陸保持在該範圍內，其目標就會隨著時間的推移而增長。

Okay. Second question, if you look at what Enphase had to say and then SolarEdge just here today, pretty shocking outlooks for the fourth quarter, driven, I think, to some extent by inventory. Obviously, some of that's in Europe, which has nothing to do with you guys. But I am curious as to how you feel about the level of inventory on your own balance sheet and also what you're seeing out there in -- especially in dealer world. And then I have one more question after that.

好的。第二個問題，如果你看看 Enphase 所說的話以及今天在這裡的 SolarEdge，第四季度的前景相當令人震驚，我認為這在某種程度上是由庫存推動的。顯然，其中一些是在歐洲，與你們無關。但我很好奇您對自己資產負債表上的庫存水準有何感受，以及您在外面看到的情況——尤其是在經銷商領域。之後我還有一個問題。

Right. So the inventory, I'd say very simply, we've been above our targets. We measure in days of supply based on our run rate installation activity. And that's been -- we've been trending well north of our objectives. But we've also made progress in reducing the inventory balance. So for instance, in the last quarter, we drove the inventory balance down by $130 million. I think we have another $100 million to $200 million to go to get levelized to our targets. So our purchase -- the rate of our purchasing activity is now and will be until we're rightsized beneath the rate of our installation flow as we right size, and we think that's going to take us another 2 to 3 quarters.

正確的。因此，我想說的是，庫存非常簡單，我們已經超越了我們的目標。我們根據安裝活動的運作率來衡量供應天數。我們一直在偏離我們的目標。但我們在減少庫存餘額方面也取得了進展。例如，在上個季度，我們將庫存餘額減少了 1.3 億美元。我認為我們還需要 1 億到 2 億美元來實現我們的目標。所以我們的購買——我們的購買活動的速度現在和將來都會如此，直到我們調整規模低於我們的安裝流量的速度，我們認為這將需要我們另外 2 到 3 個季度。

And Joe, this is Ed. I think there are 3 markets that are reducing inverter sales that haven't really impacted us we're calling out. International is obviously one. Companies unable to make the transition to storage is another. And then the third, which we have mostly sidestep is markets within the United States to stop being cost effective with higher interest rates. And so that's a differentiating factor that has helped us relatively.

喬，這是艾德。我認為有 3 個市場正在減少逆變器銷量，但我們呼籲這些市場並沒有真正影響我們。國際顯然就是其中之一。無法過渡到儲存的公司是另一個問題。第三個，我們主要迴避的是美國國內市場，以停止提高利率的成本效益。因此，這是一個對我們相對有幫助的差異化因素。

Got you. And nice to hear from you, Ed. And then last one, and then I'll go away. Probably the number one for Danny or maybe you, Ed. How are the economics of direct ITC monetization relative to traditional tax equity for you guys? And in particular, is there some mechanism for a basis step-up when you do a direct monetization? I'm curious about that. And that's it for me.

明白你了。很高興收到你的來信，艾德。然後是最後一張，然後我就走開。可能是丹尼的第一名，也可能是你，艾德。對你們來說，與傳統稅收公平相比，ITC 直接貨幣化的經濟效益如何？特別是，當您進行直接貨幣化時，是否有某種基礎升級機制？我對此很好奇。對我來說就是這樣。

So there's structural economics and then there's price per credit, I'd say. As has been noted across the market, we're in a period of everybody doing their first deal on both the sponsor side and the investor side and participation has been pleasing to see. But deals are getting done for the first time. And ultimately, we think the price per credit is going to increase as we do more and more of these transactions. And that's why we also noted we expect it to be part of our mix that is driving that.

我想說的是，有結構經濟學，然後還有每學分的價格。正如整個市場所指出的那樣，我們正處於贊助商和投資者雙方都進行第一筆交易的時期，參與度令人高興。但這是首次達成交易。最終，我們認為隨著我們進行越來越多的此類交易，每個信用的價格將會上漲。這就是為什麼我們也指出，我們希望它成為推動這一趨勢的組合的一部分。

As far as structurally, I think there are different modes of transactions being done in the market, some of which do not have monetization for things like depreciation, some do. In some cases, it might be -- it might look more like a traditional tax equity structure where there's a subsequent sale of the credit, not directly by us. And so there are emerging structures as well. I think, ultimately, we'd expect to preserve the value, if you will, relative to tax equity, putting price per credit aside.

就結構而言，我認為市場上有不同的交易模式，其中有些沒有折舊等貨幣化，有些則有。在某些情況下，它可能看起來更像是傳統的稅收股權結構，其中隨後出售信貸，而不是由我們直接出售。因此也出現了新興的結構。我認為，最終，如果你願意的話，我們希望保留相對於稅收公平的價值，將每個信用的價格放在一邊。

Our next question is from James West with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 James West。

So Mary, as you think about this move to storage-first, which makes perfect sense, but you're going to have to do some reskilling, you've got a lot of stuff going on with the company in general, how long of a transitional period should we expect to be in for?

所以瑪麗，當你考慮轉向存儲優先的轉變時，這是完全有道理的，但是你將不得不進行一些重新培訓，公司總體上有很多事情要做，需要多長時間我們應該經歷一個過渡期嗎？

Great question. I mean, we're well on our way. I mean the good thing is, as you know, like Sunrun has been invested in a storage future since 2016. So the cool thing is, we already did have expertise in the company. We had experience. And it's really -- like it's really the challenge of scaling and taking that experience that we have and scaling it in a significant way, particularly amidst a very rapid policy shift in one of our large markets in California. So we're really well on our way. It's just been incredible to see the strides that have been made over the quarter.

很好的問題。我的意思是，我們進展順利。我的意思是，正如您所知，好事是 Sunrun 自 2016 年以來一直投資於儲存未來。所以很酷的是，我們已經在公司擁有了專業知識。我們有經驗。這確實是一個挑戰，需要擴大規模，利用我們所擁有的經驗，並以一種重要的方式擴大規模，特別是在我們加州的一個大型市場發生非常迅速的政策轉變的情況下。所以我們進展順利。看到本季的進步真是令人難以置信。

As -- again, we're improving all of our customer communications, our sales training, our installation teams instead of having like a percent of them that are experts in installing storage, we're moving to having all of them being experts that install storage. So I would say we're well on our way, and I'm feeling really good about this uptake that we saw. I mean no question, we were working towards that kind of uptake. So we were just really pleased with the customer reaction to our focus on whole-home backup and storage across the country, particularly -- and particularly in California.

再次，我們正在改善所有的客戶溝通、銷售培訓和安裝團隊，而不是讓其中只有百分之一的人是安裝儲存的專家，我們正在轉向讓他們所有人都是安裝的專家貯存。所以我想說，我們進展順利，我對我們所看到的這種採用感到非常滿意。我的意思是毫無疑問，我們正在努力實現這種吸收。因此，我們對客戶對我們專注於全國範圍內的全家庭備份和儲存的反應感到非常滿意，特別是在加利福尼亞州。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then as we think about things starting to, at some point, normalize here in whatever the new normal environment looks like, you are prioritizing cash flow. So how should we think about what the normal volume growth should be on an annual basis?

好的。好的。知道了。然後，當我們考慮事情在某種程度上開始正常化時，無論新的正常環境是什麼樣子，你都會優先考慮現金流。那我們該如何思考每年的正常銷售成長應該是多少呢？

I mean, as you know, we guide to next year at our next earnings call. Again, we're talking about how we expect to see storage megawatt hours grow this quarter because we think it is so strategic and so important. So as you think about how we're going to talk about it next year, I think you can really anticipate that we're going to be talking about growth in a broader context than we have historically, which is really important from a value creation perspective, value creation for our customers and value creation for our shareholders.

我的意思是，如您所知，我們將在下一次財報電話會議上指導明年。我們再次討論我們預計本季儲存兆瓦時的成長，因為我們認為這是如此具有戰略意義且如此重要。因此，當你思考我們明年將如何談論它時，我認為你確實可以預見到我們將在比歷史上更廣泛的背景下談論增長，這對於價值創造來說非常重要的觀點，為客戶創造價值，為股東創造價值。

And it's also really powerful like that's again why we -- like we've been really pleased with the initial reaction we're getting to our retrofit program, for instance. And again, we're also launching our renewal practices around helping customers renew their contracts. And as a part of that, that gives us the opportunity to cross-sell, to upsell and to lock in even longer-term relationships. But Ed, it sounded like you want to add something on.

它也非常強大，這就是我們對改造計劃的初步反應感到非常滿意的原因。同樣，我們也圍繞著幫助客戶續約啟動了續約實踐。作為其中的一部分，這使我們有機會進行交叉銷售、追加銷售並鎖定更長期的關係。但是艾德，聽起來你想添加一些東西。

Yes, I was just going to go. Storage is significantly higher entry barrier business. That's probably most obvious if you look historically, what happened in Hawaii where our market share grew several times after the market effectively required storage. The storage is harder to price, design, sell, permit, requires working capital. There are obvious fantastic economies of scale in grid services. And so that's in part why we're making the strong pivot. And so obviously, volume holistically is still very important to us. Solar nameplate megawatts, we're deemphasizing a little bit, and we're now focusing on total value proposition, a broader suite of products and cash flow.

是的，我正要走。儲存是進入門檻明顯較高的業務。如果你回顧歷史，這可能是最明顯的，在夏威夷發生的事情，在市場有效需要儲存之後，我們的市場份額增長了數倍。儲存更難定價、設計、銷售、許可，需要營運資金。網格服務明顯具有驚人的規模經濟。這就是我們做出強而有力的轉型的部分原因。顯然，整體銷售對我們來說仍然非常重要。太陽能標牌兆瓦，我們不再那麼強調了，我們現在專注於總價值主張、更廣泛的產品套件和現金流。

Yes. And we haven't talked a lot about grid services on this call so far, but the program that we just did with PG&E this summer was very, very powerful. And as a former utility executive, to build on what Ed said, it's incredibly powerful to think about the amount of clean energy generation we're going to be sitting on top of with this kind of storage attachment rates and with the ability to now go back and retrofit customers with storage.

是的。到目前為止，我們在這次電話會議上還沒有過多談論網格服務，但今年夏天我們剛剛與 PG&E 合作的專案非常非常強大。作為一名前公用事業高管，根據艾德所說，考慮到我們將在這種儲存附加率和現在有能力的情況下獲得多少清潔能源發電量，這是非常強大的為客戶提供儲存支援和改造。

Our next question is from [Puneet Satish] with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 [Puneet Satish]。

You mentioned PG&E looks like they're on track for a 13% rate increase. Just wondering how that impacts your pricing strategy in California. Do you envision kind of raising prices in lockstep with PG&E or leaving pricing unchanged and maybe benefiting from a higher pace of installs? Just trying to understand maybe how you think about capturing that benefit in January?

您提到 PG&E 似乎有望升息 13%。只是想知道這如何影響您在加州的定價策略。您是否設想與 PG&E 同步提價，或保持定價不變，並可能從更快的安裝速度中受益？只是想了解您如何看待在一月份獲得這項好處？

Well, I would say, first and foremost, it makes what we are currently selling a lot more attractive to customers. So I think, first and foremost, that's really important. Secondly, I think as I've described on other calls, we have a very flexible pricing strategy. I mean we are very opportunistic, but we're also always evaluating it from a whole host of different factors. So no decisions have been made. And I would say, again, we're going to keep our nimble, flexible approach to every single market and geography within every market that we're in. And we'll make the right decisions at that time focused on sustainable, profitable growth.

嗯，我想說，首先也是最重要的是，它使我們目前銷售的產品對客戶更具吸引力。所以我認為，首先，這非常重要。其次，我認為正如我在其他電話中所描述的那樣，我們有非常靈活的定價策略。我的意思是我們非常機會主義，但我們也總是從一系列不同的因素來評估它。因此尚未做出任何決定。我想說，我們將在我們所處的每個市場和每個市場中保持靈活的方法。屆時我們將做出正確的決策，專注於可持續的獲利成長。

Got it. And then maybe just switching to the tax equity market. I guess, are you seeing any constraints from your end in terms of accessing the tax equity market, given some of the proposals that are out there and uncertainty -- and then if so, is that impacting your growth plans at all? And then, I guess, longer term, obviously, I assume there's going to be a mix shift here to ITC transfers, any sense in terms of what that mix looks like over the next few years?

知道了。然後也許只是轉向稅收股權市場。我想，考慮到現有的一些提議和不確定性，您在進入稅收股權市場方面是否看到了任何限制——如果是這樣，這是否會影響您的成長計畫？然後，我想，從長遠來看，顯然，我認為這裡將會出現向 ITC 轉移的混合轉變，就未來幾年的這種混合情況而言，有什麼意義嗎？

Sure. This is Ed. I'll speak to this in a couple of ways. So first, it's definitely not constraining our growth. The market is growing rapidly, both on the supply and demand side for tax equity, but we don't have any concerns about clearing the market. I think you were indirectly also referencing the potential Basel rules those would only affect 2025 and the future. So it's certainly not showing up for residential funds at the moment.

當然。這是艾德。我將從幾個方面來討論這個問題。所以首先，它絕對不會限制我們的成長。無論是在稅收公平的供需方面，市場都在快速成長，但我們並不擔心市場出清。我認為您也間接提到了潛在的巴塞爾規則，這些規則只會影響 2025 年及未來。因此，目前住宅基金肯定不會出現這種情況。

In my conversations with the tax equity investors who are having the direct conversations with the regulators regarding Basel, it seems pretty clear that the proposed treatment for tax equity was viewed as a miss and their papering the file to fix that. And there's obviously no guarantee that, that will happen, but people are starting to feel pretty comfortable that, that will occur.

在我與稅務股權投資者的對話中，他們正在與監管機構就巴塞爾協議進行直接對話，很明顯，擬議的稅務股權處理被視為一個失誤，他們透過文件來解決這個問題。顯然並不能保證這種情況會發生，但人們開始對這種情況的發生感到非常放心。

Our next question is from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

It's Alex on for Julien. Just -- you guys gave a lot of color when sort of talking about the pivot into storage as sort of a whole company in addition to this more measured sort of growth profile. I'm curious, right, I mean, does that also come when we sort of think about the current backdrop with any sort of reassessment of the overhead that you guys need to be carrying again with sort of like eye on the cash generation targets heading into that sort of 4Q run rate next year?

亞歷克斯替補朱利安。只是——除了這種更謹慎的成長概況之外，你們在談論整個公司向儲存的轉型時還給出了很多色彩。我很好奇，對，我的意思是，當我們考慮當前的背景，對你們需要再次承擔的管理費用進行任何形式的重新評估時，這是否也會出現，就像關注現金生成目標標題一樣明年第第四季的運行率會達到這樣的水平嗎？

Yes. I think getting the transition to storage is a key element like affecting the near term. So dealing with -- also, if you look at our value creation metric, like the speed at which we recognize storage projects, obviously, that affects the subscriber value we book in period relative to the expenses we book in period, but also we capture proceeds on that at the point of install. So there's just I would call it like an order-to-cash cycle realization element in there that's an efficiency.

是的。我認為向儲存的過渡是影響近期的關鍵因素。因此，如果你看看我們的價值創造指標，例如我們識別儲存項目的速度，顯然，這會影響我們在一段時間內預訂的訂戶價值相對於我們在一段時間內預訂的費用，但我們也捕獲在安裝時繼續進行。因此，我將其稱為“訂單到現金循環實現元素”，這就是效率。

And I think getting -- and the cycle time being the point here, getting cycle times accelerated for storage, thinking about how we design those systems to streamline their operation along the dimension that Ed was talking through earlier like home upgrades, electrical work, how do we design the backup configuration to simplify all that. So those are all part of the picture.

我認為，週期時間是這裡的重點，加快儲存的周期時間，思考我們如何設計這些系統，以沿著埃德之前討論的維度簡化其操作，例如家庭升級、電力工作、如何我們是否設計備份配置來簡化這一切？這些都是圖片的一部分。

And then you also mentioned overhead. Overhead, we've been managing quite well. It's really operating cost leverage on the overhead by getting more units through to install in an accelerated fashion, I would say, is the bigger lever than bringing down the gross dollars of overhead, which we've been doing -- we've been at that forever. But over the several -- last several quarters, we've been pretty aggressive on containing and cutting overhead where we can throughout the business.

然後你還提到了開銷。開銷方面，我們管理得很好。我想說，這實際上是透過以加速方式安裝更多設備來對管理費用進行營運成本槓桿，這比降低管理費用總額更大，這是我們一直在做的——我們一直在這樣做永遠。但在過去的幾個季度裡，我們一直在盡可能積極地控制和削減整個業務的管理費用。

Got it. Yes. Super clear. Just on the pro forma adders you guys are indicating sort of a housekeeping point. One, do you expect this will be a cash true-up as those rules are finalized? And then, I mean, I guess when we think about the net subscriber value metric that you guys are expecting to guide to, would that include this sort of shift or pro forma for what you expect it to be or sort of what it is realized in the period?

知道了。是的。超級清晰。就在形式上的加法器上，你們指出了某種內務管理點。第一，隨著這些規則的最終確定，您是否認為這將是現金調整？然後，我的意思是，我想當我們考慮你們期望指導的淨訂戶價值指標時，是否會包括這種轉變或形式上的預期或實現的結果期間？

Great. So definitionally, in the past, we have not put in the catch-up into the net subscriber value unit metric. We have generally floated that just through cash and we've indicated to people what the dollar amounts of catch-up have been as we've claimed them through our tax equity funds. So that will be the case again for energy community adders which we did report in the metric in the period.

偉大的。因此，從定義上來說，過去我們並沒有將追趕納入淨用戶價值單位指標中。我們通常只是透過現金來實現這一點，我們已經向人們表明了我們透過稅收股權基金所要求的追趕金額。因此，對於我們在此期間確實在指標中報告的能源社區加法器來說，情況將再次如此。

We are actively claiming on tax equity, and there is a stub portion for systems that will get retroactive treatment that we will claim through tax equity. So we haven't yet done a lot of that activity. That will probably be over the course of Q4 and Q1. And we've given information on that in the past.

我們正在積極主張稅收公平，並且對於將獲得追溯處理的系統，我們將透過稅收公平來主張。所以我們還沒有做很多這樣的活動。這可能會在第四季度和第一季發生。我們過去已經提供過相關資訊。

So energy communities does have a retroactive catch-up element to it. That's why low income, as we noted, the application window opened. We are well underway in submitting our initial batch of applications and the award when it comes in. There should be an initial lump sum element that is a catch-up and then we should run rate going forward as the future windows for applications open up.

因此，能源界確實有一個追溯追趕的因素。正如我們所指出的，這就是低收入申請窗口打開的原因。我們正在順利提交第一批申請和獎勵。應該有一個初始的一次性總付元素，可以追趕，然後隨著未來申請窗口的打開，我們應該繼續前進。

And any true-ups will not be a net subscriber value, just to make sure I'm clear on that. We will not go restate prior metrics and we will now put them in the prospective metric for the unit margin as far as the catch-up element to any of these. Domestic content, not yet live. We'll also have the potential to be retroactive, but we're still awaiting final guidance and rule making on that.

任何真實的情況都不會是淨訂戶價值，只是為了確保我清楚這一點。我們不會重述先前的指標，我們現在將它們放入單位利潤的預期指標中，直到其中任何一個指標的追趕元素。國內內容，尚未上線。我們也有可能進行追溯，但我們仍在等待最終的指導和規則制定。

Our next question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Company 的 Colin Rusch。

Can you talk a little bit about the VPP monetization and the maturity of that model at this point? I guess I'm trying to get a sense of when to start layering some of that revenue into the model going forward?

能談談 VPP 貨幣化以及該模型目前的成熟度嗎？我想我正在嘗試了解何時開始將部分收入分層到未來的模型中？

Yes. I mean as I articulated a number of times, we really see this value as growing exponentially in years to come. When you think about how fast we're scaling and now how fast we're scaling with storage and you put that against the backdrop of the grid challenges as society electrifies, which creates lumpy, uneven load on a grid that's already strained.

是的。我的意思是，正如我多次闡述的那樣，我們確實認為這一價值在未來幾年將呈指數級增長。當你想到我們的擴展速度有多快以及現在我們的存儲擴展速度有多快時，你會將其與社會電氣化帶來的電網挑戰放在一起，這會在已經緊張的電網上產生不穩定的、不均勻的負載。

So we see programs like what we just did with PG&E as a postcard from the future of what you're going to start to see all over the country. And that was a program whereby we were providing nearly 30 megawatts every day to the grid during peak times from August through to October. We're in active discussions with them to upsize the fleet in the future. And our growing experience with good services increases our conviction that we can realize 2,000 or more in per customer NPV from these types of assets. So that's certainly how we're looking at it.

因此，我們看到的項目就像我們剛剛對 PG&E 所做的那樣，就像一張來自未來的明信片，你將開始在全國各地看到。在這個計劃中，我們在 8 月到 10 月的高峰時段每天向電網提供近 30 兆瓦的電力。我們正在與他們積極討論未來擴大機隊規模的問題。我們在優質服務方面不斷累積的經驗增強了我們的信念，即我們可以從這些類型的資產中為每個客戶實現 2,000 或更多的 NPV。這當然就是我們看待它的方式。

And again, you just see the headlines all over the country where utilities and so many parts of the country are really struggling with keeping up with the load, keeping up with the different climatic events. And I see more and more that utilities are going to need what we proved at a utility way back in 2015 and some have proven since, which is these provide incredible, flexible resources, unlike any other to support the grid.

再說一次，你會看到全國各地的頭條新聞，公用事業公司和全國許多地區都在努力跟上負荷，跟上不同的氣候事件。我越來越多地看到，公用事業公司將需要我們在2015 年以公用事業方式證明的東西，以及此後一些公司已經證明的東西，即這些提供了令人難以置信的、靈活的資源，與任何其他支援電網的資源不同。

Just a reminder, we have previously said over again that like lifetime grid services value could be about $2,000 a customer, and there's data that it's maybe even $2,000 per customer per year per (inaudible).

提醒一下，我們之前曾說過，終身電網服務的價值可能約為每個客戶 2,000 美元，有數據表明，甚至可能每個客戶每年價值 2,000 美元（聽不清楚）。

Yes.

是的。

I have some follow-ups, but I'll take it offline. And thanks for the clarity around some of the inventory on modules and inverters. I'm just curious about some of the racking inventory that you guys may have in other balance of system elements that you'll need to work through just in terms of the days on hand?

我有一些後續行動，但我會將其離線。感謝您澄清一些模組和逆變器庫存。我只是好奇你們在系統元素的其他平衡中可能擁有的一些貨架庫存，您需要根據現有的天數來處理這些庫存？

Yes. On racking, we have more direct control over that just because we do own a racking manufacturing company called SnapNrack, and we do both distribute that equipment and use it on our installations. I would say once we get beyond modules, inverters, batteries, racking -- as far as inventory is concerned, racking and other balance of system becomes much smaller in dollar value. But we have been managing those inventory levels and bringing them down in line with everything else.

是的。在貨架方面，我們對此擁有更直接的控制權，因為我們確實擁有一家名為 SnapNrack 的貨架製造公司，並且我們既分銷該設備並在我們的安裝中使用它。我想說，一旦我們超越模組、逆變器、電池、貨架——就庫存而言，貨架和系統的其他平衡的美元價值就會小得多。但我們一直在管理這些庫存水平，並使其與其他一切保持一致。

Our next question is from Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬克·斯特勞斯。

This is Drew on for Mark. First one, just back on the inventory topic. I think you've mentioned that we expect to get back to that 60- to 80-day level in the early first part of next year, and that would be when you can start to expect to see some of the pricing declines come through. With the relatively -- or tapering of the growth outlook here, could there be any headwinds to the first half value creation because of that? Or am I reading too much into that?

這是德魯為馬克代言的。第一個，回到庫存主題。我想您已經提到，我們預計將在明年初恢復到 60 至 80 天的水平，屆時您就可以開始預期價格會出現一些下降。由於成長前景相對或逐漸減弱，上半年的價值創造是否會因此受到阻礙？還是我讀太多了？

I would say the -- yes, the pace of -- so we -- it's expensing inventory. So the actual price reductions are already accruing to us on new purchases. It's just that we're not purchasing as much as we're installing and we're expensing more expensive inventory that we've held. So that's what the nature of that time line is. And I'd say we get it gradually -- probably over the next couple of quarters, and then you'd probably see it more significantly after that.

我想說的是，是的，我們的步伐是在消耗庫存。因此，新採購的實際降價已經計入我們身上。只是我們購買的數量沒有安裝的多，而且我們正在消耗我們所持有的更昂貴的庫存。這就是時間線的本質。我想說的是，我們會逐漸得到它——可能在接下來的幾個季度內，然後你可能會看到它更顯著。

But remember, we've also cautioned as you look at our creation cost, what you're also getting concurrently is each system coming with more and more batteries and because the battery unit cost is high in relation to the -- all of the solar-only equipment, you're getting an increase in the installation cost due to equipment, although the units of equipment are coming in at a lower unit price. Just something to keep in mind as you observe that over the next few quarters. But it's all contributing to a pickup in net subscriber value as we put in higher value storage attach and get operating cost leverage back as volume paces up.

但請記住，當您查看我們的創建成本時，我們也警告您，您同時得到的是每個系統都配備了越來越多的電池，並且因為電池單位成本相對於所有太陽能都很高-僅設備，儘管設備單位的單價較低，但由於設備，您的安裝成本會增加。當你在接下來的幾個季度觀察到這一點時，請記住一些事情。但這一切都有助於淨用戶價值的上升，因為我們投入了更高價值的儲存附加，並隨著數量的增加而恢復了營運成本槓桿。

Okay. That makes sense. That's helpful. And then just one quick one on California. Your peers said this morning that they're having a -- some elongated, I guess, interconnection times with some of the utilities in California and that's been a headwind to getting systems into operation. Is that the same for you guys? And does that have anything to do with maybe some slowering of installs in California?

好的。這就說得通了。這很有幫助。然後快速介紹一下加州。你們的同行今天早上表示，他們與加州的一些公用事業公司的互連時間有些延長，我猜，這對系統投入運作來說是一個阻力。你們也一樣嗎？這與加州的安裝速度放緩有關係嗎？

I mean, yes, to a degree. But again, I would say that's like routinely a challenge for us. But at the same time, we're also encouraged, again, as a very storage-obsessed company. We're really encouraged by what we've seen with the adoption of meter collars, for instance, with some storage devices, which actually should help accelerate installation times, over time. So we're seeing some good moves in the context of where our focus is, which is whole-home backup with solar.

我的意思是，是的，在某種程度上。但我想說，這對我們來說通常是一個挑戰。但同時，作為一家非常沉迷於儲存的公司，我們也再次受到鼓舞。我們對儀表環的採用感到非常鼓舞，例如，一些儲存設備，隨著時間的推移，這實際上應該有助於加快安裝時間。因此，我們在我們的重點領域看到了一些好的舉措，即全屋太陽能備份。

Our final question will be from Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.

我們的最後一個問題將由 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen 提出。

Just had a quick follow-up on the tax credit monetization discussion. Can you give us a sense of the timing of when your first deal could be? And then how much of your 2024 [PPO] volumes could be supported by tax credit sales?

剛剛對稅收抵免貨幣化討論進行了快速跟進。您能否告訴我們您第一筆交易的時間安排？那麼，您的 2024 年 [PPO] 銷量中有多少可以透過稅收抵免銷售來支持？

Yes. So we've closed the first transaction. We are in the final stages of completing the transfer element of that fund and will be a heavy user of that fund for the balance of the year. So that's the status of the transaction generally.

是的。這樣我們就完成了第一筆交易。我們正處於完成該基金轉移部分的最後階段，並將在今年剩餘時間內成為該基金的大量用戶。這就是交易的整體狀態。

Great. And do you expect it to be a majority of your financing as it relates to the credit financing for 2024?

偉大的。您是否預計這將成為您融資的大部分，因為它與 2024 年的信貸融資有關？

I think it would be a substantial portion. I don't know if it's majority half, I think, over time, definitely, as these funds are very -- could be very large in size. At some points of the year, it might be more transferability. At other points in the year, it might be more traditional tax equity depending on what we're utilizing over time.

我認為這將是很大一部分。我不知道是否佔多數，我認為，隨著時間的推移，肯定是這樣，因為這些基金的規模可能非常大。在一年中的某些時候，可能會更具可轉移性。在一年中的其他時間，它可能是更傳統的稅收公平，這取決於我們隨著時間的推移所利用的內容。

But I think the other thing to keep in mind -- just one other thing, I guess, similar to the equipment piece, as far as like GAAP treatment, the ITC trend, so the traditional tax equity delivers a lot of income through the noncontrolling interest line of our P&L. As we transition to ITC transfer, the treatment of the ITCs will look more like likely contra-depreciation. So it will have impact on the trending of our EPS over time. Just something to keep in mind again as you attract all that activity through our GAAP statements.

但我認為要記住的另一件事——我想，還有另一件事，與設備部分類似，就 GAAP 處理、ITC 趨勢而言，傳統的稅收公平透過非控制性提供了大量收入。我們損益表的利息線。當我們過渡到 ITC 轉移時，ITC 的處理方式將看起來更像是相對折舊。因此，隨著時間的推移，它將對我們的每股盈餘趨勢產生影響。當您透過我們的 GAAP 報表吸引所有這些活動時，請再次牢記這一點。

Great. Can you also talk about the growth of your installation costs and why they're up $0.40 per watt sequentially? Is it due to increased storage penetration? And if so, why are proceeds going -- why proceeds are going up -- or why aren't proceeds going up in line with that?

偉大的。您能否也談談您的安裝成本的增長情況以及為什麼它們每瓦連續增加 0.40 美元？是因為儲存滲透率增加嗎？如果是這樣，為什麼收益會增加——為什麼收益會增加——或者為什麼收益不會隨之增加？

Yes. I think the general point about we're making the transition. So we picked up 18 percentage points -- or sorry, 15 percentage points on the battery attach over last quarter. We started spending against that, and we expect more pickup to come and the expenditure against the battery install as we've been transitioning our mix has been proceeding. So that's a little bit of a drag.

是的。我認為我們正在進行轉型的總體觀點是。因此，我們在上個季度的電池連接方面提高了 18 個百分點，或者抱歉，提高了 15 個百分點。我們開始為此支出，我們預計將會有更多的皮卡出現，並且隨著我們一直在進行組合轉型，電池安裝的支出也在繼續。所以有點拖累。

The volume being down a little bit is negative operating leverage on the non-variable elements to install costs such as like getting permits and doing site audits, et cetera. So battery equipment, negative operating leverage, the recognition of the subscriber value not coming in as quickly enough. There are a few other elements, but I would say those would be the largest factors.

數量略有下降是對非可變因素的負面營運槓桿，以安裝成本，例如獲得許可和進行現場審核等。因此，電池設備、負營運槓桿、對使用者價值的認可都不夠快。還有一些其他因素，但我想說這些會是最大的因素。

Okay. Great. And then the final question here is around some reports questioning the subscriber count and customer count that EIA uses. So there seems to be a difference. I was wondering if you could break down the disconnect or the difference between the 2.

好的。偉大的。最後一個問題是一些質疑 EIA 使用的訂戶數量和客戶數量的報告。所以看來還是有差別的。我想知道你是否可以打破兩者之間的脫節或差異。

Yes. Happy to run through that a little bit here. I think we have responded to that publicly. Obviously, we think our response was adequate. Happy to go into more detail here on this call.

是的。很高興在這裡稍微介紹一下。我想我們已經對此做出了公開回應。顯然，我們認為我們的回應是充分的。很高興能在這次電話會議上詳細介紹。

And I would say just first and foremost, like the numbers from 2 different sources are not comparable. We do define what we express in our metric. It's been the same and hasn't changed as far as subscriber count. And as any diligent company would do where it's not clear, in this case, EIA asking us for information, we do have conversations with them to make sure we cover off all of the nuances and give them exactly what they're looking for, and that's what our team has done over time through multiple conversations between our team and directly with EIA. And they are like atypical aspects of our business that generic reporting guideline that you pull from their website wouldn't perfectly address.

我首先要說的是，來自兩個不同來源的數字是不具可比性的。我們確實定義了我們在指標中表達的內容。就訂戶數量而言，情況並沒有改變。正如任何勤奮的公司都會在不清楚的地方做的那樣，在這種情況下，EIA 要求我們提供信息，我們確實與他們進行了對話，以確保我們涵蓋了所有細微差別，並為他們提供了他們正在尋找的信息，並且這就是我們團隊長期以來透過團隊之間以及直接與 EIA 的多次對話所做的事情。它們就像我們業務的非典型方面，您從他們的網站上獲得的通用報告指南無法完美解決。

So as to solar customers, there are a couple of places EIA has requested that we diverge from GAAP. The first place is our prepaid customers, which they've said we should not report because we don't actively bill them and they're trying to obtain billing data. And we have well more than 50,000 of those customers. That gives rise to $865 million in prepayments on our balance sheet. And if they change their mind and asked us to report that, we would happily do so.

對於太陽能客戶，EIA 要求我們在一些地方偏離 GAAP。首先是我們的預付費客戶，他們說我們不應該回報這些客戶，因為我們不主動向他們計費，而他們正在嘗試取得計費資料。我們擁有超過 50,000 名這樣的客戶。這導致我們的資產負債表上產生了 8.65 億美元的預付款。如果他們改變主意並要求我們報告，我們會很樂意這樣做。

In other areas like the monthly billing customers and whether you go with the GAAP number, we have contract that escalates from $0.10 to $0.20 over 25 years, GAAP records, $0.15 of levelized payments over the contract term, and we actually report our current cash billing amount, which would be $0.10 in year 1. So that's a nuance we've checked, that's how we report it.

在其他方面，例如每月計費客戶以及是否採用GAAP 數字，我們的合約在25 年內從0.10 美元升級到0.20 美元，GAAP 記錄，合約期間內平準化付款為0.15 美元，而且我們實際上報告了目前的現金帳單金額，第一年為 0.10 美元。這是我們檢查過的細微差別，這就是我們報告的方式。

And another unusual area is revenue from storage systems and how do we report that over time, and we're currently in discussions with them on how to report that to their satisfaction directly.

另一個不尋常的領域是儲存系統的收入，以及我們如何隨著時間的推移報告這項收入，我們目前正在與他們討論如何直接報告讓他們滿意的收入。

And then finally, one other element to hit is the estimates on the system costs and -- well, I would say before that, there's also the delay in recognition of assets I didn't hit, which is the permission to operate. We do have a much longer lag in permission to operate from getting -- from install to permission operates and commencing billing then is understood. And that's another large portion of the difference.

最後，另一個要考慮的因素是對系統成本的估計，而且——好吧，我想說，在此之前，我沒有考慮的資產的識別也存在延遲，即操作許可。從獲得操作許可到從安裝到許可操作再到開始計費，我們確實有更長的延遲時間，這是可以理解的。這是差異的另一大部分。

And then on the cost side, which I was going to get into, as is visible on our balance sheet, we have $813 million in CIP, much of which is awaiting placement in service. And that doesn't get -- that wasn't picked up in the analysis that was done. And also there's GAAP expense recognition versus capitalization differences between when you sell an asset and when you lease it to a subscriber. And examples of that include warehouses, branches, vehicles, we don't capitalize that into the basis of the asset, and we expense that in period, and that also wasn't picked up in the analysis that's been done.

然後在成本方面，我將要討論這一點，正如我們的資產負債表所示，我們有 8.13 億美元的 CIP，其中大部分正在等待投入使用。但這並沒有得到——這在所做的分析中沒有得到體現。此外，在出售資產和將其出租給訂戶時，還存在 GAAP 費用確認與資本化差異。這方面的例子包括倉庫、分支機構、車輛，我們不會將其資本化為資產的基礎，我們會在期間內將其費用化，而這也沒有在已完成的分析中得到體現。

And I would say just to kind of leave it with the last piece here. As far as what we do and how that relates to ITC claims on tax equity funds that does go through numerous elements of third-party due diligence as well, and that's been very well scrutinized by third parties, and we welcome it.

我想說的是，把它和最後一塊留在這裡。至於我們所做的事情以及這與 ITC 對稅收股權基金的索賠有何關係，這些索賠確實也經過了第三方盡職調查的眾多要素，並且受到了第三方的嚴格審查，我們對此表示歡迎。

Thank you. That is all the time that we have allocated for the Q&A. You may all disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。這就是我們分配給問答的所有時間。此時大家可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。