Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded and that one hour has been allocated for the call, including the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到 Sunrun 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音中，並且已為通話分配了一個小時，包括問答環節。 （操作員說明）我現在將電話轉給 Sunrun 投資者關係高級副總裁帕特里克喬賓。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，運營商。在我們開始之前，請注意我們將在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們認為這些陳述反映了我們根據我們目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大不利差異。請參閱公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。

Please also note these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

另請注意，這些聲明是在今天作出的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改它們的義務。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Paul Dickson, Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website, along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript, including Q&A, will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

今天接聽電話的是 Sunrun 的首席執行官瑪麗·鮑威爾 (Mary Powell)； Sunrun 首席營收官 Paul Dickson； Sunrun 的首席財務官 Danny Abajian。 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了演示文稿以及補充材料。今天電話會議的音頻重播，以及今天準備好的評論和文字記錄的副本，包括問答，將在電話會議後不久發佈到 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站。現在讓我把電話轉給瑪麗。

Thanks, Patrick. Hi, all. We have a lot to catch up on today. So let's get going. Faster, better, stronger and doing it right were the themes of our first quarter as we laser-focused on crushing it on the fundamentals and delivering value for our customers, shareholders and the planet.

謝謝，帕特里克。大家好。我們今天有很多事情要趕上。讓我們開始吧。更快、更好、更強和正確行事是我們第一季度的主題，因為我們專注於從根本上粉碎它，並為我們的客戶、股東和地球創造價值。

Frankly, we pleasantly surprised ourselves with the momentum that our culture of high performance created as we entered the first quarter of our year, and we plan to accelerate this momentum as we move into the rest of the year.

坦率地說，我們在進入今年第一季度時對我們的高績效文化創造的勢頭感到驚喜，我們計劃在進入今年剩餘時間時加速這種勢頭。

In the first quarter, we installed systems for over 32,000 customers, representing approximately 240 megawatts of solar capacity, 12% higher than the first quarter of the prior year and significantly above our guidance range.

第一季度，我們為超過 32,000 名客戶安裝了系統，太陽能容量約為 240 兆瓦，比去年第一季度高出 12%，大大高於我們的指導範圍。

Even with challenging weather conditions, including atmospheric rivers in many parts of California, our teams worked to safely install solar systems on rooftops. We did so with a higher-than-expected net subscriber value and most importantly, positive trends in customer satisfaction metrics.

即使在惡劣的天氣條件下，包括加利福尼亞許多地區的大氣河流，我們的團隊仍努力在屋頂上安全地安裝太陽能係統。我們做到了這一點，淨訂戶價值高於預期，最重要的是，客戶滿意度指標呈積極趨勢。

We are powering a customer-led revolution to clean, affordable and locally generated energy and doing it at massive scale and unprecedented pace. Our network solar energy capacity now stands at 5.9 gigawatts, and we are on track to add well over 1 gigawatt of clean power capacity this year alone.

我們正在推動一場以客戶為主導的革命，以清潔、負擔得起和本地產生的能源，並以前所未有的規模和速度進行。我們的網絡太陽能容量目前為 5.9 吉瓦，僅今年一年，我們就有望增加超過 1 吉瓦的清潔能源容量。

To put that in context, the capacity we are adding this year is equivalent to an average nuclear power plant, which takes decades to build. Most utility-scale solar projects are generally 5 megawatts or smaller and take 6 to 12 months to bring online. We do well over 20 megawatts per week. Think about that. Just think about that.

綜上所述，我們今年增加的容量相當於一座需要數十年才能建成的普通核電站。大多數公用事業規模的太陽能項目通常為 5 兆瓦或更小，需要 6 到 12 個月才能上線。我們每週的發電量超過 20 兆瓦。考慮一下。想想看。

As a former utility CEO, who knows full well the amount of time and capital it takes to build projects of scale, Sunrun is scaling at a gigawatt pace with low-risk, fast development times. The modern energy system we are developing is built efficiently on existing housing infrastructure, avoiding the intense environmental impacts that come from the massive land use tied to utility scale renewables, which would require use of 5,000 to 10,000 acres of land to produce similar scale and would certainly take years, not quarters to build.

作為一名前公用事業公司首席執行官，Sunrun 非常了解建設大規模項目所需的時間和資金，Sunrun 正在以低風險、快速的開發時間以千兆瓦的速度擴展。我們正在開發的現代能源系統高效地建立在現有的住房基礎設施之上，避免了與公用事業規模的可再生能源相關的大量土地使用所帶來的強烈環境影響，這將需要使用 5,000 至 10,000 英畝的土地來產生類似的規模，並將當然需要數年時間，而不是宿舍來建造。

Most important of all is that our offerings provide what customers really want: clean, affordable and predictably priced energy to power their homes, their lives and with increasing frequency, their transportation.

最重要的是，我們的產品提供了客戶真正想要的東西：清潔、負擔得起且價格可預測的能源，為他們的家庭、生活以及越來越頻繁的交通提供動力。

Based on what we are seeing in our business and across the industry, I could not be more pleased with Sunrun's competitive position and market leadership. Sales activities were up over 30% in the first quarter compared to the prior year, with much faster growth in California. Sales in California increased by more than [80%] year-over-year in Q1 as we successfully helped customers lock in value from the existing rate structure.

根據我們在業務和整個行業中看到的情況，我對 Sunrun 的競爭地位和市場領導地位感到非常滿意。與去年同期相比，第一季度的銷售活動增長了 30% 以上，其中加州的增長速度要快得多。由於我們成功幫助客戶從現有費率結構中鎖定價值，第一季度加利福尼亞州的銷售額同比增長超過 [80%]。

Even excluding California, total sales activities increased by double digits with about half of the states we operate in growing more than 20%. Part of this outcome, of course, was the expected acceleration ahead of the changes in California. But the results are also indicative of the loss of confidence in the utility grid infrastructure, rapidly rising utility rates and growing consumer awareness of the energy independence afforded by our products and services.

即使不包括加利福尼亞在內，總銷售活動也以兩位數的速度增長，我們經營的大約一半州的增長超過 20%。當然，這一結果的一部分是在加利福尼亞發生變化之前預期的加速。但結果也表明人們對公用電網基礎設施失去信心，公用事業費率迅速上升，消費者對我們的產品和服務所提供的能源獨立性的認識不斷提高。

Our strong traction is also a result of our ability to attract the best sales talent in the industry, eager to work with the nation's leading residential clean energy provider, especially one that leads on storage and innovation.

我們強大的吸引力也是我們能夠吸引業內最優秀的銷售人才的結果，他們渴望與美國領先的住宅清潔能源供應商合作，尤其是在儲能和創新領域處於領先地位的供應商。

Sunrun is the clear leader, providing clean energy as a subscription service with over 60% share of new subscriptions across the residential solar industry. Recent trends in financing costs for loans, the growing need for advanced systems with storage, awareness of the value of service and performance guarantees, along with the uncertain economic climate have all increased the advantages of our subscription offering.

Sunrun 是明顯的領導者，提供清潔能源作為訂閱服務，在整個住宅太陽能行業的新訂閱中佔有超過 60% 的份額。貸款融資成本的最新趨勢、對帶存儲的先進系統的需求不斷增長、對服務價值和性能保證的認識以及不確定的經濟環境都增加了我們訂閱產品的優勢。

We are seeing a significant shift in preference towards the subscription offering. With the mix of new subscribers increasing nearly 7 percentage points from last quarter to 78% of our installations in Q1. Storage Solutions are not only a significant competitive advantage for Sunrun and differentiator in the eyes of customers and salespeople, they are meaningfully accretive to our margins. We have now installed more than 58,000 residential solar and storage systems across the country.

我們看到人們對訂閱產品的偏好發生了重大轉變。隨著新訂戶的組合比上一季度增加近 7 個百分點，占我們第一季度安裝量的 78%。存儲解決方案不僅是 Sunrun 的顯著競爭優勢，也是客戶和銷售人員眼中的差異化因素，它們還顯著增加了我們的利潤。我們現在已經在全國安裝了超過 58,000 個住宅太陽能和存儲系統。

While storage supply was a constraint to growth as recently as last year, supply chain conditions have improved considerably for us given our strong vendor relationships, and we are well positioned to dramatically increase the attachment rate.

雖然就在去年，存儲供應是增長的製約因素，但鑑於我們強大的供應商關係，供應鏈條件對我們來說已經有了很大改善，而且我們有能力大幅提高附件率。

Our wherewithal to tackle the increasing capital intensity required for a rapid transition to high battery attachment rates positions us well to continue to lead the charge on battery adoption.

我們有能力應對快速過渡到高電池附加率所需的日益增加的資本密集度，這使我們能夠繼續引領電池採用率。

Sunrun will continue to lead with the best product offerings for customers and deliver them in the most cost-effective way possible, always prioritizing the customer experience and serving them with love, grit and ingenuity.

Sunrun 將繼續為客戶提供最好的產品，並以最具成本效益的方式提供產品，始終將客戶體驗放在首位，並以愛心、勇氣和獨創性為他們服務。

At Sunrun, we are building the beloved trusted brand that will help Americans achieve their clean energy lifestyle goals, powering their lives with the abundance of clean energy.

在 Sunrun，我們正在打造深受喜愛的值得信賴的品牌，幫助美國人實現他們的清潔能源生活方式目標，用豐富的清潔能源為他們的生活提供動力。

We have built a high-performance team focused on the fundamentals, which will generate meaningful and sustainable value for our shareholders, customers and employees. This has been a central factor in our ability to adapt to market changes with rapid speed and decisiveness.

我們已經建立了一支專注於基本面的高績效團隊，這將為我們的股東、客戶和員工創造有意義和可持續的價值。這是我們能夠快速果斷地適應市場變化的核心因素。

Our team not only stood up the infrastructure to process a wave of orders and qualify customers under California's prior rate structure in a way that maximize values for our customers and Sunrun, but we also started selling under the new rate structure with a compelling subscription offering faster than others in the industry.

我們的團隊不僅建立了基礎設施來處理一波訂單，並以一種為我們的客戶和 Sunrun 實現價值最大化的方式在加利福尼亞州之前的費率結構下對客戶進行資格認證，而且我們還開始在新的費率結構下銷售，並以更快的速度提供引人注目的訂閱服務比業內其他人。

I have always espoused that culture eats strategy for breakfast, lunch and dinner, and our team culture is all about the kind of high-performance collaboration that drive strong execution and growth. We're starting to see the progress on these elements with improved field efficiency, improving customer satisfaction rankings and continued innovation.

我一直認為文化在早餐、午餐和晚餐中吃戰略，而我們的團隊文化就是那種能推動強大執行力和增長的高效協作。我們開始看到這些要素在提高現場效率、提高客戶滿意度排名和持續創新方面取得的進展。

An example of our focus on operating efficiency is the work we are doing to streamline field operations. We move to job site delivery of equipment in many geographies, allowing crews to spend more time at customer locations instead of branches, increasing productivity, employee engagement and customer satisfaction.

我們關注運營效率的一個例子是我們為簡化現場運營所做的工作。我們轉移到許多地區的工作現場交付設備，使工作人員能夠將更多時間花在客戶所在地而不是分支機構，從而提高生產力、員工敬業度和客戶滿意度。

As an anecdote, we improved installation crew efficiency by approximately 17% in March compared to the prior year. Driving the best financial outcome is critical to our success as we focus on growth and scale and is directly linked to how we increase the accessibility of solar energy across the country and make the largest impact on our communities and the environment.

有趣的是，與去年同期相比，我們在 3 月份將安裝人員的效率提高了約 17%。推動最佳財務成果對我們的成功至關重要，因為我們專注於增長和規模，並且與我們如何在全國范圍內提高太陽能的可及性以及對我們的社區和環境產生最大影響直接相關。

Last month, we published our sixth annual impact report. This is an inside view into what drives us as a company and how we operate the business, our purpose, our mission and our people-first approach. I'm so proud to share the many amazing initiatives at Sunrun and the positive impact our important work is making on the planet.

上個月，我們發布了第六份年度影響報告。這是對我們作為一家公司的驅動力以及我們如何經營業務、我們的宗旨、我們的使命和我們以人為本的方法的內部觀點。我很自豪能夠分享 Sunrun 的許多驚人舉措以及我們的重要工作對地球產生的積極影響。

In summary, the Sunrun team is driving meaningful long-term value by focusing on sustainable, profitable growth, crushing it on the fundamentals and accelerating the customer-led revolution in clean, independent energy lifestyles. This is the company that is focused on producing strong unit margins, which can enable strong recurring cash generation. I will now turn the call over to Paul Dickson.

總而言之，Sunrun 團隊正在通過專注於可持續的、盈利的增長、從根本上粉碎它並加速以客戶為主導的清潔、獨立能源生活方式的革命來推動有意義的長期價值。這是一家專注於產生強勁單位利潤率的公司，這可以帶來強勁的經常性現金產生。我現在將把電話轉給 Paul Dickson。

Paul is Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer and is a tremendous asset on our executive team, overseeing our go-to-market strategy, sales channels, product strategy and technology development. He was one of the early leaders at Vivint Solar and a pioneer in the industry, building tremendously successful, impactful and mission-oriented organizations. Over to you, Paul.

Paul 是 Sunrun 的首席營收官，是我們執行團隊的重要資產，負責監督我們的上市戰略、銷售渠道、產品戰略和技術開發。他是 Vivint Solar 的早期領導者之一，也是該行業的先驅，建立了非常成功、有影響力和以使命為導向的組織。交給你了，保羅。

Thank you, Mary. I'm thrilled to share updates on Sunrun's market position and how we are poised to accelerate our market share in quarters ahead as well as the exciting innovation, innovative offering we just launched in California.

謝謝你，瑪麗。我很高興分享有關 Sunrun 市場地位的最新信息，以及我們準備如何在未來幾個季度加快我們的市場份額，以及我們剛剛在加利福尼亞推出的令人興奮的創新和創新產品。

Our subscription offering, which makes going solar easy is extremely well positioned in the marketplace and the advantages of a diversified multichannel go-to-market strategy paired with a vertically integrated business is beginning to really demonstrate its strength and ability to adjust to market conditions and drive responsible growth and improving margins.

我們的訂閱產品讓使用太陽能變得非常容易，在市場上處於非常有利的地位，多元化的多渠道上市戰略與垂直整合業務相結合的優勢開始真正展示其適應市場條件和能力的實力和能力。推動負責任的增長和提高利潤率。

Sunrun goes to market through multiple channels. Our direct-to-home sales force, which is comprised of regional teams who sell direct-to-customers, our field sales organization, which leverages leads through our presence in retail stores such as Costco and Home Depot, our national inside sales organization, which helps customers from our digital channels go solar through a virtual process, our business-to-business routes, which include low-income multifamily and new homes, and last but not least, our affiliate partner program, which we used to refer to as channel partners, where we partnered to round out our go-to-market strategy with the sharpest and most innovative large regional operators.

Sunrun通過多種渠道進入市場。我們的直接上門銷售團隊由直接面向客戶銷售的區域團隊組成，我們的現場銷售組織通過我們在全國內部銷售組織 Costco 和 Home Depot 等零售店的存在來利用潛在客戶，它幫助我們數字渠道的客戶通過虛擬流程獲得太陽能，我們的企業對企業路線，包括低收入多戶家庭和新房，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我們的附屬合作夥伴計劃，我們過去稱之為渠道合作夥伴，我們與最敏銳和最具創新性的大型區域運營商合作，完善我們的上市戰略。

Our multichannel go-to-market approach delivers meaningful advantages at different moments in time. For instance, our direct-to-home organization is particularly well situated to find customers and create density in targeted locations due to the mobile and nimble nature of the organization. This is especially helpful to address the location-specific investment tax credit adders for low income and energy communities.

我們的多渠道上市方法在不同的時間點提供了有意義的優勢。例如，由於組織的機動性和靈活性，我們的直達家庭組織特別適合尋找客戶並在目標位置創造密度。這特別有助於解決低收入和能源社區的特定地點投資稅收抵免問題。

Additionally, our direct-to-home channel often reaches customers who have not already understood the value of solar and storage.

此外，我們的直接到戶渠道經常接觸到尚未了解太陽能和儲能價值的客戶。

Our national inside sales organization can flex resources in areas where needed and serve customers desiring to be met through virtual engagements. Our field sales organization helps customers who wish to shop through companies they're already familiar with as they meet our associates working in big box stores.

我們的全國內部銷售組織可以在需要的領域靈活運用資源，並為希望通過虛擬互動得到滿足的客戶提供服務。我們的現場銷售組織幫助希望通過他們已經熟悉的公司購物的客戶，因為他們會遇到我們在大型商店工作的員工。

Lastly, our affiliate partners allow us to expand our reach, share best practices and benefit from deep local knowledge.

最後，我們的附屬合作夥伴使我們能夠擴大我們的影響力、分享最佳實踐並從深厚的本地知識中獲益。

Having the solar industry's largest internal sales force many times over and deep integration with our key affiliate partners enables us to meet customers most effectively and move quicker to meet market conditions.

多次擁有太陽能行業最大的內部銷售團隊，並與我們的主要附屬合作夥伴進行深度整合，使我們能夠最有效地滿足客戶需求，並更快地滿足市場條件。

Leading up to the transition of NEM 2 to the new rate regime called Net Billing Tariff or NBT, we saw tremendous growth in new orders, with Q1 sales growing over 80% year-over-year in California. We were able to build a pipeline of over 20,000 customers, representing 150 megawatts. This pipeline will be installed over the next couple of quarters.

在 NEM 2 過渡到稱為淨計費關稅或 NBT 的新費率制度之前，我們看到了新訂單的巨大增長，加利福尼亞州第一季度的銷售額同比增長超過 80%。我們能夠建立超過 20,000 個客戶的管道，代表 150 兆瓦。這條管道將在接下來的幾個季度內安裝。

The vertically integrated nature of our business enabled us to align quickly with sales, design, technology, supply chain, operations and customer service, not only to ensure that NEM 2 projects were submitted properly and on time, but also to launch a product to address the needs of customers under NBT.

我們業務的垂直整合性質使我們能夠快速與銷售、設計、技術、供應鏈、運營和客戶服務保持一致，不僅確保 NEM 2 項目按時正確提交，而且推出產品以解決NBT下客戶的需求。

I'm extremely excited about the new offering we launched in California called Sunrun Shift. This is the innovative offering we alluded to on the last earnings call. It incorporates storage to optimize the economics of energy produced by the solar system. It does this by charging up the shift device with daytime solar production rather than exporting at low value rates and by enabling self-consumption in the evening during peak utility rates. This system delivers far better customer -- a far better customer offering than solar alone, and will be easier and quicker to install than full battery backup.

我對我們在加利福尼亞推出的名為 Sunrun Shift 的新產品感到非常興奮。這是我們在上次財報電話會議上提到的創新產品。它結合了存儲以優化太陽能係統產生的能源的經濟性。為此，它通過白天太陽能發電為輪班設備充電而不是以低價值率出口，並通過在晚上使用高峰期實現自用。該系統提供了更好的客戶 - 比單獨使用太陽能更好的客戶服務，並且比完整的備用電池更容易和更快地安裝。

This new offering delivers a strong value proposition for our customers and a strong net subscriber value for Sunrun.

這一新產品為我們的客戶提供了強大的價值主張，並為 Sunrun 帶來了強大的訂戶淨價值。

Another benefit is that Shift customers are able to participate in grid service opportunities, providing enhanced value over time to these customers, Sunrun and the grid.

另一個好處是 Shift 客戶能夠參與電網服務機會，隨著時間的推移為這些客戶、Sunrun 和電網提供更高的價值。

Because of our leading position on innovation and investments in advanced product development, we were able to launch a solution that meets utility needs and provides incredibly strong savings for most customers in a range of approximately 10% to 30-plus percent. At these robust savings levels, we are seeing over 85% of customers select Shift or battery backup since launch.

由於我們在先進產品開發的創新和投資方面處於領先地位，我們能夠推出滿足公用事業需求的解決方案，並為大多數客戶節省大約 10% 到 30% 以上的成本。在這些強勁的節省水平下，我們看到超過 85% 的客戶自推出以來選擇 Shift 或備用電池。

Bottom line, at Sunrun, California is open for business. As expected, immediately following the transition in early April, we saw decline in sales activities. Part of this was driven by the sales team spending more of their time advancing a larger-than-normal pipeline, which was created by the policy change, while simultaneously refining the explanation of the new Shift offering.

最重要的是，在加利福尼亞州的 Sunrun 營業。正如預期的那樣，在 4 月初過渡之後，我們立即看到銷售活動下降。部分原因是銷售團隊花費更多時間推進由政策變化創建的超常規管道，同時完善對新 Shift 產品的解釋。

We have seen a strong rebound in sales activities, increasing 25% week-on-week, and we're already back to approximately 2/3 of the level from 1 year ago. We expect this rebound to continue.

我們看到銷售活動強勁反彈，每週增長 25%，我們已經回到一年前水平的大約 2/3。我們預計這種反彈將繼續下去。

With Shift preserving strong customer savings, sales activity rebounding nicely and the strong sales-driven pipeline we built prior to the policy transition, we expect to deliver year-over-year growth in quarters ahead in California.

憑藉 Shift 保持強勁的客戶儲蓄、銷售活動反彈良好以及我們在政策過渡之前建立的強大的銷售驅動管道，我們預計將在未來幾個季度在加利福尼亞實現同比增長。

I'm extremely proud of the way the team came together to leverage our diverse routes to market and our innovation to deliver strong growth and attractive unit economics. The resiliency, flexibility and ingenuity of our sales leadership demonstrated was amazing. With that, I will turn the call over to Danny for the financial update.

我為團隊聚集在一起利用我們多樣化的市場途徑和我們的創新來實現強勁增長和有吸引力的單位經濟效益而感到非常自豪。我們的銷售領導層所表現出的彈性、靈活性和獨創性令人驚嘆。有了這個，我會把電話轉給丹尼來了解最新的財務情況。

Thank you, Paul. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook.

謝謝你，保羅。今天，我將介紹我們本季度的運營和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。

Turning first to results for the quarter. In the first quarter, customer additions were approximately 32,400 including approximately 25,200 subscriber additions. Our subscriber additions were 78% of our total customer additions in the period, a meaningful increase from 72% last quarter.

首先轉向本季度的結果。第一季度，新增客戶約為 32,400 人，其中新增用戶約為 25,200 人。在此期間，我們的訂戶增加量占我們總客戶增加量的 78%，比上一季度的 72% 有顯著增長。

Our recent sales activities and the forthcoming benefits from the tax credit adders in the Inflation Reduction Act, which are only available to the solar subscription model, indicate the mix of customer additions is likely to continue to shift more towards subscribers in the quarters ahead.

我們最近的銷售活動以及《降低通貨膨脹法》中的稅收抵免加法器即將帶來的好處（僅適用於太陽能訂閱模式）表明，未來幾個季度客戶增加的組合可能會繼續更多地轉向訂閱者。

Solar energy capacity installed was approximately 240 megawatts in the first quarter of 2023, a greater than 12% increase from the same quarter last year and significantly exceeding our guidance of 215 to 225 megawatts.

2023 年第一季度太陽能裝機容量約為 240 兆瓦，比去年同期增長 12% 以上，大大超過了我們 215 至 225 兆瓦的指導值。

We have now installed over 58,000 solar and storage systems. We expect storage installations will grow rapidly in the quarters ahead and attachment rates will increase meaningfully, particularly in California due to the transition to NBT, which will drive customers towards our shift and own backup offerings.

我們現在已經安裝了超過 58,000 個太陽能和存儲系統。我們預計存儲安裝將在未來幾個季度快速增長，並且附件率將顯著增加，特別是在加利福尼亞州，由於向 NBT 的過渡，這將推動客戶轉向我們的轉移和自己的備份產品。

Our backup power storage offerings not only provide customers increased value from energy rate optimization and backup power capabilities, but they carry higher margins, typically by several thousand dollars per customer. We expect our Shift offering will achieve margins that are similar to prior solar-only margins realized in California under NEM 2.

我們的備用電源存儲產品不僅通過能效優化和備用電源功能為客戶提供更高的價值，而且還帶來更高的利潤，通常每位客戶可賺取數千美元。我們預計我們的 Shift 產品將實現與之前在 NEM 2 下在加利福尼亞實現的純太陽能利潤率相似的利潤率。

Our ability to satisfy demand for storage installations with superior operational fulfillment is a clear differentiator for Sunrun in the marketplace.

我們通過卓越的運營履行來滿足存儲安裝需求的能力是 Sunrun 在市場上的一個明顯差異化因素。

We ended Q1 with approximately 830,000 customers and 692,000 subscribers representing 5.9 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, an increase of 20% year-over-year. Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide.

截至第一季度末，我們擁有約 830,000 名客戶和 692,000 名用戶，網絡太陽能容量為 5.9 吉瓦，同比增長 20%。我們的訂戶通過我們提供的清潔能源簽訂的大部分合同都在 20 年或 25 年以下，從而產生可觀的經常性收入。

At the end of Q1, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at $1.1 billion, up over 23% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of over 17 years.

第一季度末，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 為 11 億美元，比去年同期增長超過 23%。我們的平均合同剩餘期限超過 17 年。

As we noted on the last call, commencing with Q1 reporting, our present value-based metrics are now presented using a 6% discount rate reflecting the higher cost of capital environment. We continue to provide sensitivity tables to allow investors to adjust these figures as they see appropriate.

正如我們在上次電話會議上指出的那樣，從第一季度報告開始，我們基於現值的指標現在使用 6% 的貼現率呈現，反映了更高的資本環境成本。我們繼續提供敏感度表，以允許投資者在他們認為合適的時候調整這些數字。

Furthermore, our cost of capital, advance rate and proceeds commentary reflects realizable outcomes based on current market conditions.

此外，我們的資本成本、預付利率和收益評論反映了基於當前市場條件的可實現結果。

In Q1, subscriber value was approximately $44,000 and creation cost was approximately $32,000, delivering a net subscriber value of $12,000, exceeding our guidance of approximately $10,000. The sequential decline from Q4's net subscriber value of $16,600 was primarily driven by the change to our discount rate assumption.

第一季度，訂戶價值約為 44,000 美元，創建成本約為 32,000 美元，訂戶淨價值為 12,000 美元，超過了我們約 10,000 美元的指導值。與第四季度的淨用戶價值 16,600 美元相比連續下降主要是由於我們的貼現率假設發生變化。

Pro forma using a 5% discount rate, net subscriber value would have been $15,761 in Q1. After isolating the discount rate impact, the remaining $839 decrease in Q4 was driven by typical seasonal effects of less favorable fixed cost absorption and accelerating sales activities ahead of volume recognition offset partially by more favorable pricing.

使用 5% 的折扣率進行預估，第一季度的淨訂戶價值為 15,761 美元。在排除貼現率影響後，第四季度剩餘的 839 美元下降是由典型的季節性影響驅動的，這些季節性影響是不利的固定成本吸收和在銷量確認之前加速銷售活動，部分被更有利的定價所抵消。

Our Q1 subscriber value and net subscriber value both assume a 30% investment tax credit and thus exclude any benefits associated with the tax credit adders as final guidance is still pending. We are seeing easing supply chain conditions and substantial cost reductions across our key hardware components, which should provide further unit cost reductions as we work through inventory.

我們的第一季度訂戶價值和淨訂戶價值均假設有 30% 的投資稅收抵免，因此排除了與稅收抵免加法器相關的任何好處，因為最終指南仍在等待中。我們看到我們的關鍵硬件組件的供應鏈條件正在緩解，成本大幅降低，這應該會在我們處理庫存時進一步降低單位成本。

These beneficial trends may be obscured however, by an increasing mix of storage, which carries higher net margins, but will increase hardware and install costs and therefore, impact creation costs.

然而，這些有利趨勢可能會被越來越多的存儲組合所掩蓋，這帶來更高的淨利潤，但會增加硬件和安裝成本，從而影響創建成本。

Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period was $302 million in the first quarter. This represents an almost doubling compared to the prior year period even without adjusting for the less favorable discount rate used this year.

第一季度產生的總價值為 3.02 億美元，即訂戶淨值乘以同期新增訂戶數量。即使不對今年使用的不太優惠的貼現率進行調整，這也比去年同期增長了近一倍。

Each quarter, we provide ranges for advance rate measured as a percentage of contracted subscriber value that reflect current capital costs. We finance our systems upon installation with tax equity and project level nonrecourse debt, which monetizes a portion of our subscriber value. Our advanced rate ranges allow investors to approximate proceeds from all sources, net of fees and gauge the obtainable net cash unit margins on deployments.

每個季度，我們都會提供提前費率的範圍，以反映當前資本成本的合同訂戶價值的百分比來衡量。我們在安裝後通過稅收權益和項目級無追索權債務為我們的系統提供資金，這將我們的一部分訂戶價值貨幣化。我們的高級利率範圍允許投資者估算所有來源的收益（扣除費用）並衡量部署時可獲得的淨現金單位利潤率。

As you can see on Slide 10, as the cost of capital increased over the last year, advance rates declined. We currently estimate advance rates are approximately 80% to 90% of contracted subscriber value, consistent with the range we shared last quarter and recent market transactions would imply our advance rate is around the midpoint of this range slightly skewed towards the low end.

正如您在幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣，隨著去年資本成本的增加，預付款率下降了。我們目前估計預付率約為合同訂戶價值的 80% 至 90%，與我們上個季度共享的範圍一致，最近的市場交易表明我們的預付率大約在該範圍的中點附近，略微偏向低端。

As you can see on Slide 10 that are steadily increasing subscriber values due primarily to price increases and numerous other profitability actions have allowed proceeds as measured at the midpoint of the advanced rate ranges to increase modestly and mitigate increases we have faced from higher capital costs.

正如您在幻燈片 10 中看到的那樣，主要由於價格上漲和許多其他盈利能力措施，訂戶價值正在穩步增加，這使得按先進費率範圍的中點衡量的收益適度增加，並減輕了我們因資本成本增加而面臨的增加。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet. Gross earning assets were $11.6 billion at the end of the first quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from customers over time, net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners in partnership flip structures and distributions to project equity financing partners discounted at a 6% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向總收入和淨收入資產以及我們的資產負債表。第一季度末的總收益資產為 116 億美元。總收入資產是衡量我們預計隨著時間的推移從客戶那裡收到的現金流量，扣除運營和維護成本，在合夥企業翻轉結構中分配給稅收股權合作夥伴的分配以及分配給項目股權融資合作夥伴的分配以 6% 的無槓桿資本成本貼現。

Net earning assets were over $4 billion at the end of the first quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Net earning assets declined compared to Q4, owing primarily to the change in discount rates. Pro forma for a 6% discount rate, however, the decline was slight and for a few reasons including increased inventory and timing of sales and marketing costs as well as timing of project finance activities. We expect net earning assets to grow meaningfully over the next several quarters.

第一季度末淨收益資產超過 40 億美元。淨收益資產是總收益資產加上現金減去所有債務。與第四季度相比，淨收益資產有所下降，這主要是由於貼現率的變化。然而，以 6% 的貼現率計算，下降幅度很小，原因有幾個，包括庫存增加、銷售和營銷成本的時間安排以及項目融資活動的時間安排。我們預計未來幾個季度淨收益資產將顯著增長。

We ended the quarter with $843 million in total cash, a decline of $110 million compared to the prior quarter, principally driven by working capital consumption and timing of project finance activities. We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway.

本季度結束時，我們的現金總額為 8.43 億美元，比上一季度減少 1.1 億美元，這主要是受營運資金消耗和項目融資活動的時間安排所推動。我們繼續保持穩健的項目融資跑道。

As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 450 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the first quarter. Sunrun also had $522 million in unused commitments available in its $1.8 billion nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan at the end of the quarter to fund over 175 megawatts of projects for subscribers.

截至今天，已結束的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收股權能力，可以為超過第一季度部署的訂戶提供超過 450 兆瓦的項目資金。截至本季度末，Sunrun 在其 18 億美元的無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款中還有 5.22 億美元的未使用承諾，可為訂戶提供超過 175 兆瓦的項目資金。

We priced a $327 million securitization last week, which is scheduled to close next week, significantly increasing the available capacity in our warehouse loan. This strong capital runway allows us to be selective in timing our capital markets activity.

我們上週為 3.27 億美元的證券化定價，計劃於下週結束，這大大增加了我們倉庫貸款的可用容量。這條強大的資本跑道使我們能夠有選擇地選擇資本市場活動的時機。

Turning now to our outlook. We continue to guide growth in solar energy capacity installed to be between 10% and 15% for the full year 2023 which we believe will result in market share gains. We see more upside opportunity than downside risk in achieving growth in this range and expect to finish the year around the high end of the guidance range. As we obtain more California sales data and further treasury guidance on the tax credit adders, we may increase our outlook next quarter.

現在轉向我們的展望。我們繼續指導 2023 年全年太陽能裝機容量增長在 10% 至 15% 之間，我們相信這將帶來市場份額增長。在實現這一範圍內的增長方面，我們認為上行機會多於下行風險，並預計今年將在指導範圍的高端附近結束。隨著我們獲得更多的加州銷售數據和財政部對稅收抵免加法器的進一步指導，我們可能會提高下個季度的預期。

We expect our storage attachment rates will increase significantly in 2023 from approximately 15%, both in 2022 and in Q1. In Q2, we expect solar energy capacity installed to be in a range of 270 and 290 megawatts. This represents double-digit growth year-over-year and double-digit sequential growth from our Q1 installations and implies second half growth squarely on track with our full year guidance.

我們預計我們的存儲附件率將從 2022 年和第一季度的約 15% 顯著增加到 2023 年。在第二季度，我們預計太陽能裝機容量將在 270 和 290 兆瓦之間。這代表了我們第一季度安裝量的兩位數同比增長和兩位數的連續增長，並意味著下半年的增長完全符合我們的全年指導。

We expect net subscriber value to increase sequentially in the second quarter and to be materially higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half. We are focused on delivering profitable growth while adapting to the economic and regulatory environment. Coupled with the likelihood for substantial value from ITC adders, this places us on a path to achieving our goal for meaningful cash generation.

我們預計第二季度淨用戶價值將連續增長，並且與上半年相比，下半年將大幅提高。我們專注於實現盈利增長，同時適應經濟和監管環境。再加上 ITC 加法器可能帶來巨大價值，這使我們走上了實現有意義的現金生成目標的道路。

Turning briefly to our capital markets activities and outlook. After a period of rapidly increasing rates in 2022, our cost of capital has recently stabilized. We currently see capital cost in the mid-6% to mid-7% range skewed slightly towards the high end of the range.

簡要談談我們的資本市場活動和前景。在 2022 年經歷了一段時間的利率快速增長之後，我們的資金成本最近趨於穩定。我們目前看到資本成本在 6% 到 7% 的中間範圍內略微偏向該範圍的高端。

While the events around the banking sector garnered significant headlines in March, there was no adverse impact to Sunrun. We responded to developments quickly and decisively, and numerous capital partners reached out to us indicating interest to step into another lender's funding commitments, which we ultimately did not need.

儘管 3 月份圍繞銀行業的事件成為頭條新聞，但並未對 Sunrun 產生不利影響。我們迅速而果斷地對事態發展做出反應，許多資本合作夥伴向我們伸出援手，表示有興趣介入另一家貸方的資金承諾，而我們最終並不需要。

We continue to utilize our lending facilities without interruption throughout the entire period and continue to do so today. We raised capital commitments in advance and from a diverse set of institutions. As we install systems for customers, assets are placed into our nonrecourse revolving warehouse facility. This facility includes a diverse group of 9 lenders. As assets are aggregated to form appropriately sized pools typically in the $200 million to $500 million range, we execute term out financings, raising nonrecourse capital either in the securitization market or directly with banks.

我們在整個期間繼續不間斷地使用我們的貸款設施，今天繼續這樣做。我們提前從不同的機構籌集了資本承諾。當我們為客戶安裝系統時，資產被放入我們的無追索權循環倉庫設施中。該設施包括一個由 9 個貸方組成的多元化小組。由於資產被匯總以形成通常在 2 億至 5 億美元範圍內的適當規模的資金池，我們執行定期融資，在證券化市場或直接與銀行籌集無追索權資本。

Because of the revolving nature of the warehouse facility, we can be selective when we choose to execute term out transactions. We periodically extend our warehouse availability and upsize it to accommodate a target of at least a year's worth of new subscriber additions.

由於倉庫設施的循環性質，我們在選擇執行終止交易時可以有選擇性。我們會定期擴展我們的倉庫可用性並擴大其規模，以適應至少一年的新訂戶增加的目標。

Contrary to fears about the capital markets being closed for our asset class, debt markets have remained solidly open. The durability of these sources of capital is intuitive as lenders appreciate our stable, predictable cash flow-producing assets that are backed by a diverse group of high FICO customers with a proven incentive to pay.

與資本市場對我們的資產類別關閉的擔憂相反，債務市場一直保持開放。這些資金來源的持久性是直觀的，因為貸方欣賞我們穩定、可預測的產生現金流的資產，這些資產得到了多元化的高 FICO 客戶群體的支持，這些客戶具有可靠的支付動機。

Demonstrating our continued access to capital and recognition as a leading sponsor, last week, we priced a $327 million asset-backed securitization. The senior tranche of A- rated notes priced at a yield of 6.13% and at a credit spread of 265 basis points. The book was solidly oversubscribed with a diverse set of both repeat Sunrun investors and numerous new entrants.

上週，我們為 3.27 億美元的資產支持證券化定價，以證明我們能夠繼續獲得資本和認可，成為領先的發起人。 A 級票據的優先級收益率為 6.13%，信用利差為 265 個基點。這本書被 Sunrun 的回頭客和眾多新進入者的各種不同群體大量超額認購。

The yield we achieved was over 0.5 point better than a similar transaction in the sector, which priced within a week of our transaction.

我們實現的收益率比該行業的同類交易高出 0.5 個百分點以上，後者在我們交易後的一周內定價。

As we've shared before, we regularly enter into interest rate swaps to hedge capital costs on our newly installed customers. We are principally exposed to interest rate fluctuations between customer origination through shortly after installation. Around the time of installation, our systems are financed with project level nonrecourse debt. Nearly all of this financing is insulated from near-term interest rate fluctuations as our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps.

正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們定期進行利率掉期交易，以對沖新客戶的資本成本。我們主要面臨客戶發起到安裝後不久之間的利率波動。在安裝前後，我們的系統通過項目級無追索權債務融資。幾乎所有這些融資都不受近期利率波動的影響，因為我們的債務要么是固定息票長期證券，要么是通過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率貸款。

The long-standing relationships we have cultivated with many capital providers in multiple markets, our reputation as a high-quality sponsor and the consistently strong payment performance trends of our customers through multiple economic cycles affords us ready access to capital. With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

我們與多個市場的許多資本提供者建立的長期關係、我們作為高質量贊助商的聲譽以及我們客戶在多個經濟周期中始終如一的強勁支付績效趨勢使我們能夠隨時獲得資本。有了這個，讓我把它轉回給瑪麗。

Thanks, Danny. Thanks, Paul. I am so appreciative of our hardworking team whose incredible passion for the work we do and commitment to our purpose helped deliver another quarter of strong results. Our team is laser-focused on accelerating the strong momentum, driving continued efficiency across the business and generating more value for our shareholders, our partners and our customers.

謝謝，丹尼。謝謝，保羅。我非常感謝我們勤奮的團隊，他們對我們所做的工作充滿熱情並致力於實現我們的目標，幫助我們取得了又四分之一的強勁業績。我們的團隊專注於加速強勁勢頭，推動整個企業的持續效率，並為我們的股東、合作夥伴和客戶創造更多價值。

One of the greatest joys of my role is the time I spend every single quarter out in the field, seeing our employees in action, talking to our customers and literally witnessing the dramatic acceleration of its customer-led revolution. As we like to say at Sunrun, let's run. Operator, that's your queue. Let's open the line for questions.

我這個角色最大的樂趣之一就是我每個季度都會花時間在現場，看到我們的員工在行動，與我們的客戶交談，並親眼目睹其以客戶為主導的革命的急劇加速。正如我們喜歡在 Sunrun 所說的那樣，讓我們跑步吧。接線員，那是你的隊列。讓我們打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with BOA.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BOA 的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Look, on the net subscriber value, obviously, it's trended lower to 12,000, but your commentary about being materially higher in the second half of '23, can you give us any sense here? I mean is this back to the highs that we saw in the last quarter, say? Or any sense on where you're trending here and especially, is that pro forma for the higher discount rate?

看，就淨訂戶價值而言，很明顯，它有下降到 12,000 的趨勢，但是你關於 23 年下半年大幅上漲的評論，你能在這裡給我們任何意義嗎？我的意思是，這會回到我們在上個季度看到的高點嗎？或者你對這裡的趨勢有什麼感覺，尤其是，這是更高折扣率的形式嗎？

Yes. That is reflecting the higher discount rate. Julien, it's Danny. That is reflecting the higher discount rate. So it's the sequential trending from here on out for the balance of the year. Part of the Q4 to Q1 move involved seasonal volume declines, as you saw in our result there with some negative operating leverage effects as you see, the Q-over-Q decline as well as the massive ramp as we noted in sales activities causing the sales and marketing costs to also be elevated in the period. So we'll continue to see the volume increases cause us to regain the operating leverage as we continue to move the customer values up and we improve margins net-net as we see continuously like higher pricing, more battery attach, just a shift towards higher-value systems also take effect. And I'll just point out the 12,000 was in relation to an expectation we had of approximately 10,000 in the period.

是的。這反映了更高的貼現率。朱利安，是丹尼。這反映了更高的貼現率。因此，這是今年餘下時間的連續趨勢。 Q4 到 Q1 的部分變化涉及季節性銷量下降，正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣，您看到了一些負面的運營槓桿效應，Q-over-Q 下降以及我們在銷售活動中註意到的大幅上升導致在此期間，銷售和營銷成本也將增加。因此，隨著我們繼續提升客戶價值並提高淨利潤率，我們將繼續看到銷量增加導致我們重新獲得運營槓桿，因為我們不斷看到更高的價格，更多的電池連接，只是向更高的方向轉變-價值體係也開始生效。我只想指出 12,000 與我們在此期間的大約 10,000 的預期有關。

Got it. All right. You're not prepared to necessarily share something more specific quite yet. Look, if I can, just on the other side of this, this is bigger lease versus loan debate out there of late. Certainly, a lot of different growth rates being thrown out, including yourself here on a growth rate. Can you talk a little bit about the migration towards lease and what that means for you guys, how differentiated your growth rate might be versus, say, the overall market? And then specifically within that, can you talk about your ability to attract incremental dealers and potential partners to your lease product?

知道了。好的。您還沒有準備好一定要分享更具體的內容。看，如果可以的話，就在這方面，最近有一場更大的租賃與貸款辯論。當然，很多不同的增長率都被排除在外，包括你在這裡的增長率。你能談談向租賃的遷移嗎？這對你們意味著什麼，你的增長率與整體市場的差異有多大？然後具體來說，你能談談你吸引增量經銷商和潛在合作夥伴使用你的租賃產品的能力嗎？

Julien, it's Mary. Great to hear you. Yes. And I would say just to drive home Danny's point, like we were -- yes, we were very enthusiastic about coming in at the 12,000 level on net subscriber value and feel, obviously, it bodes very well for the year as we see preference leading to your next question, towards the subscription model. And in fact, as you know, as we noted in the script, we saw that go up 7% to 78% of the installed volume in Q1. And with the so many pressures on loan pricing, pressures in the context or opportunity in the context of the IRA adders, we continue to expect to see further momentum towards the subscription service.

朱利安，是瑪麗。很高興聽到你的聲音。是的。我想說的只是為了強調 Danny 的觀點，就像我們一樣 - 是的，我們非常熱衷於在淨訂戶價值上達到 12,000 的水平並且感覺，顯然，這預示著今年的好兆頭，因為我們看到偏好領先關於你的下一個問題，關於訂閱模式。事實上，如您所知，正如我們在腳本中指出的那樣，我們看到第一季度的安裝量增加了 7% 到 78%。鑑於貸款定價面臨如此多的壓力、背景下的壓力或 IRA 加法器背景下的機會，我們繼續期望看到訂閱服務的進一步發展勢頭。

And again, as you know, we basically are at 60% of the market now. So we are leading. We've been at this for 16 years. We see continued differentiation in the market for Sunrun not just in the context of the subscription service, but also in the context of how pleasantly surprised we've been at the volume uptake on our new shift offering already in California post policy transition, which, in many ways, shouldn't be surprising because we're still offering savings of anywhere from 10% to 30% to customers in California with this new Sunrun Shift offering. So I think there was something else in your question that I missed. So on dealers, Paul, do you want to hit that?

再一次，如你所知，我們現在基本上佔據了 60% 的市場份額。所以我們領先。我們已經從事這一行 16 年了。我們看到 Sunrun 市場的持續分化，不僅在訂閱服務的背景下，而且在政策過渡後我們對加利福尼亞州新輪班產品的銷量感到多麼驚喜的背景下，其中，在許多方面，這並不奇怪，因為我們仍然通過這種新的 Sunrun Shift 產品為加利福尼亞州的客戶提供 10% 到 30% 的優惠。所以我認為你的問題中還有其他我錯過的東西。所以關於經銷商，保羅，你想打那個嗎？

Yes, happy to. Thanks, Mary. So one of the things that we're seeing is the strong migration of people out selling in the market, returning back to or coming to Sunrun and joining our internal sales forces as well as strong migration of smaller players kind of the long tail migrating to our larger regional affiliate partners. And I think Sunrun and our partners' ability to install batteries and increasing attractiveness of that in the market is driving a lot of that. There's also a lot of understanding around the forthcoming benefits of IRA adders and people are looking forward to that and moving accordingly.

是的，很高興。謝謝，瑪麗。因此，我們看到的一件事是市場銷售人員的大量遷移，返回或來到 Sunrun 並加入我們的內部銷售團隊，以及較小的參與者的大量遷移，比如長尾遷移到我們更大的區域附屬合作夥伴。而且我認為 Sunrun 和我們的合作夥伴安裝電池的能力以及電池在市場上日益增長的吸引力正在推動這方面的發展。人們對 IRA 加法器即將帶來的好處也有很多了解，人們對此充滿期待並相應地採取行動。

Our next question comes from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。

I guess, first off, on the guidance, just -- if I take the second quarter guidance on installed capacity, your first half run rate is basically in line with your 10% to 15% year-on-year growth target for all '23. So it kind of implies you're expecting no slowdown into the second half. Is that number one, fair? And then maybe also if you could just talk to seasonality in the second half, if it's going to be a bit more pronounced than we historically are used to just maybe into 4Q given all the California backlog dynamics, that would be helpful.

我想，首先，關於指導，只是 - 如果我採用第二季度的裝機指導，你的上半年運行率基本上符合你 10% 到 15% 的同比增長目標 ' 23.所以這有點暗示你預計下半年不會放緩。第一，公平嗎？然後也許如果你可以在下半年談論季節性，如果考慮到所有加利福尼亞積壓動態，它會比我們歷史上習慣於進入第四季度的情況更加明顯，那將是有幫助的。

Yes. So we've said, I think, also in the past, this year, on the pacing of installed volume sequentially as we go through the year, we do expect that to look more steadily improving. And a large driver to that is the size of the enormous backlog we are able to build up based on the strength of the sales volume in Q1 and as we move through the rest of the year and particularly in California, as we see the storage attach rates go up, those do consume more labor hours. So as we take an elevated size of pipeline and move that through the funnel and do so with increasing battery attach, we do see a steady kind of gradual growth in sequential volumes. And we also see an elevated size of pipeline still exiting the year implied within the volume that we guided to.

是的。所以我們已經說過，我認為，在過去，今年，關於安裝量的步調，我們確實希望它看起來會更加穩定地改善。一個很大的驅動因素是我們能夠根據第一季度的銷售量以及今年剩餘時間，特別是在加利福尼亞州的銷售量積累的大量積壓訂單，正如我們看到的存儲附件利率上升，那些確實消耗了更多的勞動時間。因此，當我們採用更大尺寸的管道並將其移動通過漏斗並增加電池連接時，我們確實看到了連續數量的穩定逐漸增長。我們還看到，在我們指導的數量範圍內，今年的管道規模仍在增加。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then just a second question around the financing environment. I know, Danny, you said during your prepared remarks, you're not seeing any adverse impacts from some of the banking turmoil that's out there. I guess, asking it differently, are you seeing any opportunities? Maybe it's too early, but in the context of Julien's earlier question, is some of your share gain opportunity actually coming about maybe because of your financing strength relative to what else is happening out in the market? And are you able to maybe noticeably see any of those trends actually playing out here in the past few months?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是關於融資環境的第二個問題。我知道，丹尼，你在準備好的發言中說過，你沒有看到現有的一些銀行業動盪帶來的任何不利影響。我想，換個方式問，你看到任何機會了嗎？也許現在還為時過早，但就 Julien 之前的問題而言，你的一些股票上漲機會是否真的出現了，也許是因為你的融資實力相對於市場上正在發生的其他事情？在過去的幾個月裡，你是否能夠明顯地看到這些趨勢中的任何一個實際上正在發揮作用？

Yes, I think it absolutely is. I think we -- just are poised confidence just around the durability of capital markets. The fact that we do keep warehouse financing. We do keep unused runway of capital to fund our business, and we see that looking out weeks, months, quarters, and also from like a relative value standpoint as we see cost of capital move in slightly different ways between the subscription offering and the loan offering, I think there's been a relative value shift for sure, kind of implicit in how financing costs have moved depending on the mode of financing. So putting all that together.

是的，我認為絕對是。我認為我們 - 只是對資本市場的持久性充滿信心。事實上，我們確實保持倉庫融資。我們確實保留了未使用的資本跑道來為我們的業務提供資金，我們看到從幾週、幾個月、幾個季度以及相對價值的角度來看，因為我們看到資本成本在認購產品和貸款之間以略有不同的方式移動提供，我認為肯定存在相對價值轉移，這在某種程度上暗示了融資成本如何根據融資模式而變化。所以把所有這些放在一起。

In addition to just kind of the sponsor reputation that we carry in the market and the ability to have meaningful conversations with capital providers, whether it's [BIC] syndicated transactions, even large-sized smaller bilateral type conversations, just having so many different routes and options does give us the kind of the poised confidence to deliver on the rest of the business as well.

除了我們在市場上的讚助商聲譽和與資本提供者進行有意義對話的能力之外，無論是 [BIC] 銀團交易，甚至是大型小型雙邊類型的對話，都有這麼多不同的路線和期權確實給了我們信心來交付其他業務。

Our next question comes from Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大豐業銀行的特里斯坦理查森。

I appreciate the comments on April, particularly in California. You noted seeing maybe activity back to 2/3 of the level a year ago. I'm curious maybe where you're seeing that in terms of attach rate as well. I mean we all kind of assume that this bundle becomes somewhat standard in California. But curious if you're seeing that just in these early signs of that data.

我很欣賞四月份的評論，尤其是在加利福尼亞州。您注意到活動可能回到一年前水平的 2/3。我很好奇，也許您在附加率方面也看到了這一點。我的意思是我們都假設這個捆綁包在加利福尼亞州成為某種標準。但是很好奇你是否只是在這些數據的這些早期跡像中看到了這一點。

Yes, Tristan, thanks for the question. So we definitely are. We're seeing more customers than before migrate to full battery backup, but we're seeing a really high attach rate on that Shift product as customers learn and better understand the dynamics of the new rate regime and select the product that addresses those most effectively. And so we've come out of the gates at well over 80%, as I mentioned earlier, and expect that to continue to climb.

是的，特里斯坦，謝謝你的提問。所以我們絕對是。我們看到比以前更多的客戶遷移到完整的備用電池，但隨著客戶了解並更好地了解新費率制度的動態並選擇最有效地解決這些問題的產品，我們看到該 Shift 產品的附加率非常高.因此，正如我之前提到的，我們已經走出了 80% 以上的大門，並預計這一數字將繼續攀升。

Appreciate it. And then maybe just anything of note to talk about outside the state of California, maybe what you're seeing on the lease product side in some of the lower electricity cost dates.

欣賞它。然後可能只是在加利福尼亞州以外談論任何值得注意的事情，也許你在一些較低的電力成本日期在租賃產品方面看到的。

Yes. Great question. It's interesting to see on these markets that have lower cost basis and the value and attractiveness of the subscription model. Customers are still able to lock in attractive savings profiles, which makes it a really attractive offering for them, where the loan has had to raise rates at a far higher pace and we've seen more migration and really strong growth in several of our other markets. About half of the states we operate in are growing at over 20%, not counting California.

是的。很好的問題。有趣的是，在這些具有較低成本基礎的市場上看到訂閱模式的價值和吸引力。客戶仍然能夠鎖定有吸引力的儲蓄資料，這對他們來說是一個非常有吸引力的產品，貸款不得不以更快的速度提高利率，我們已經看到更多的移民和我們其他幾個國家的強勁增長市場。我們經營的州中約有一半的增長率超過 20%，這還不包括加利福尼亞。

And our next question comes from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Andrew Percoco。

Great. I just want to follow up on the battery attach rate question. I'm just curious in terms of where you stand with suppliers. Is there a need to expand the supplier base for battery storage, to keep up with demand for battery storage in California?

偉大的。我只想跟進電池附加率問題。我只是想知道您與供應商的立場。是否需要擴大電池存儲的供應商基礎，以滿足加州對電池存儲的需求？

Yes, we actually feel really good about our line of sight into our battery supply. We're seeing a lot of really great products in the market. We have diverse vendors that we're able to source from and we're seeing some compression on cost of product that we're able to benefit us and our customers. So we feel really good about the agreements we have, the diversity of vendors and the price point.

是的，我們對電池供應的視線確實感覺很好。我們在市場上看到了很多非常棒的產品。我們有不同的供應商，我們可以從中採購，我們看到產品成本有所壓縮，我們能夠使我們和我們的客戶受益。因此，我們對我們擁有的協議、供應商的多樣性和價格點感到非常滿意。

Great. And maybe just one follow-up on the guidance in terms of net subscriber value over the course of the year. Are you able to bifurcate how much of that is coming from additional pricing actions or cost declines versus a mix shift to battery storage.

偉大的。也許只是在一年中就淨用戶價值方面的指導進行一次跟進。您是否能夠區分其中有多少來自額外的定價行動或成本下降與混合轉向電池存儲。

I think generally, we would expect, notwithstanding the Q1 increase in costs, which I said was kind of somewhat volumetrically driven as we kind of get volumes back up, we probably see costs moderate, even decline. And then the vision there is to hold it flat and partly should be driven as we get further and further into the year, some benefits and tailwinds from supply chain costs. But generally, a story of flattening out in costs and continually increasing the subscriber value as we get customer values up from higher -- realization of higher pricing. So some of it is just pricing increase and I would say the balance of it being the shift towards more battery attach, which delivers higher value customers from a monthly payment standpoint as well.

我認為總的來說，我們預計，儘管第一季度成本增加，我說這在某種程度上是由數量驅動的，因為我們的數量有所回升，但我們可能會看到成本適度，甚至下降。然後，隨著我們越來越接近這一年，供應鏈成本帶來的一些好處和順風，我們的願景是保持平穩，部分應該得到推動。但總的來說，隨著我們從更高的客戶價值上升——實現更高的定價，成本趨於平緩並不斷增加訂戶價值的故事。所以其中一些只是價格上漲，我想說它的平衡是向更多電池連接的轉變，從每月支付的角度來看，這也為更高價值的客戶提供了服務。

And our next question comes from James West with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 James West。

Mary, Danny and Paul, you guys were all very bullish on storage. You've gotten a couple of questions on it. So far I think we all understand the NEM 3.0 and now we know about the Shift subscription service. Curious -- the additional attachment rates that you're looking for, is this primarily a California thing? Or are you seeing that spread out to other states?

瑪麗、丹尼和保羅，你們都非常看好存儲。你有幾個問題。到目前為止，我認為我們都了解了 NEM 3.0，現在我們了解了 Shift 訂閱服務。好奇——你正在尋找的額外依戀率，這主要是加州的事情嗎？還是您看到這種情況蔓延到其他州？

Yes. Great question. Thanks, James. We're seeing really strong growing demand for battery across our entire portfolio. Obviously, it's more pronounced in California with the compressed gap between Shift and upgrading to full battery backup. But as the grid ages and more climate events take place, more consumers become aware of and experience the need or benefit of that storage. And so we're seeing growing attach rates on the consumer side and strong demand in the industry from a sales force perspective, desiring to enter into workforce with an organization that has the ability to execute the sourcing of them as well as the deployment of them.

是的。很好的問題。謝謝，詹姆斯。我們看到整個產品組合對電池的需求增長非常強勁。顯然，這在加利福尼亞州更為明顯，因為 Shift 和升級到全電池備份之間的差距縮小了。但隨著電網老化和更多氣候事件的發生，越來越多的消費者開始意識到並體驗到這種存儲的需求或好處。因此，從銷售人員的角度來看，我們看到消費者方面的附加率不斷上升，行業需求強勁，希望進入一個有能力執行採購和部署的組織的勞動力.

Okay. That's very helpful. And then another question on the moving to site deliveries. I thought that was pretty interesting that you're giving pretty more equipment on site. And I was wondering if you could quantify or maybe qualify a little bit how much of the jobs are. (inaudible) we previously are on that way now and what you expect that to shift to over time?

好的。這很有幫助。然後是關於轉移到現場交付的另一個問題。我覺得你們在現場提供了更多的設備，這很有趣。我想知道你是否可以量化或限定一些工作崗位的數量。 （聽不清）我們以前是這樣的，你希望隨著時間的推移會發生什麼變化？

Yes. Great question. I mean, again, the team has just continued to make remarkable progress over the last year and continuing to drive operational efficiencies, both in the context of the size of folks it takes to safely do installs. So we've improved the efficiency from a sort of perspective of how many installers per job and this was a great other step forward where we just do job site delivery. So in essence, the crews get to just show up at the first home, and it really allows you to also get to multiple installs in one day because you have the crews moving and you have the delivery of the job packages efficiently delivered by one truck that brings them around to the different sites. So yes, we're very excited about it. It's made a huge difference in the geographies that we're already using it, and we're going to be rolling it out through the entire country this year.

是的。很好的問題。我的意思是，在過去的一年裡，團隊剛剛繼續取得顯著進步，並繼續提高運營效率，無論是在安全安裝所需的人員規模的背景下。因此，我們從每個工作有多少安裝人員的角度提高了效率，這是向前邁出的又一大步，我們只進行工作現場交付。所以從本質上講，工作人員只需出現在第一個家，它真的可以讓你在一天內進行多次安裝，因為你讓工作人員移動，並且你可以通過一輛卡車高效地交付工作包將他們帶到不同的站點。所以是的，我們對此感到非常興奮。它在我們已經使用它的地區產生了巨大的變化，我們將在今年將其推廣到整個國家。

And our next question comes from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer。

Can you talk about how many different markets you can monetize the VPP services in 2023 and 2024? Just trying to get a sense of the order of magnitude on that as we go through this year and next.

您能談談在 2023 年和 2024 年可以通過 VPP 服務獲利的不同市場有多少？在我們今年和明年經歷的過程中，只是想了解一下數量級。

Yes. No, it's a great question, particularly when you think about like the scale, the massive scale, as I said in my remarks, I mean, again, we're going to be bringing online the equivalent of a nuclear power plant. So my view from a -- particularly as a former utility executive is that opportunities are only going to dramatically increase in the coming years. That said, as you know, we just announced not long ago, a partnership with PG&E, we're really excited about -- that's really positive for this summer, those customers that we're selling Shift products to right now will be able to participate in that program as an example.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題，特別是當你考慮規模，大規模時，正如我在發言中所說的那樣，我的意思是，我們將再次將相當於核電站的網絡投入使用。因此，我的觀點——尤其是作為一名前公用事業高管——機會只會在未來幾年急劇增加。也就是說，如您所知，我們不久前剛剛宣布與 PG&E 建立合作夥伴關係，我們對此感到非常興奮——這對今年夏天來說非常積極，我們現在向其銷售 Shift 產品的那些客戶將能夠以參加該計劃為例。

So in total, we probably have about a dozen VPP programs around the country. We're consistently evaluating them in the context of ensuring that they really hit the sweet spot of being meaningful for customers, meaningful for Sunrun. And I'm just so excited by the evolution I've seen in this space. And I think the PG&E partnership actually is a really good example of a program that is very beneficial for customers and very accretive for Sunrun.

所以總的來說，我們可能在全國有大約十幾個 VPP 項目。我們一直在評估它們，以確保它們真正達到對客戶有意義的最佳位置，對 Sunrun 有意義。我對我在這個領域看到的演變感到非常興奮。我認為 PG&E 合作夥伴關係實際上是一個非常好的項目示例，該項目對客戶非常有利，對 Sunrun 也非常有利。

That's super helpful. And then with clarity on the -- from treasury on some of these adders, what's your latest thought on this? We're getting data points all over the map, but curious what you're hearing from folks and how you're building that into the underwriting process at this point?

這非常有幫助。然後清楚地了解 - 從財政部對其中一些加法器的了解，您對此有何最新想法？我們在整個地圖上都獲得了數據點，但很好奇您從人們那裡聽到了什麼，以及此時您如何將其構建到承保流程中？

Yes. We've been so far in the metric that we just reported for customer value, that fully excludes the adders. As we look at the 3 buckets of adders, energy communities, low income, domestic content. We've gotten treasury guidance, I think more is forthcoming on those 2. And we've -- energy communities, we look at that. There's a little bit of a range as we parse through data and kind of get that -- get those views finalized. But we expressed a range of mid-single digit to mid -- as much as mid-20s percentage of our current footprint. Now this is without considering any adjustments to our footprint where we -- as -- again, the 60% roughly market share of the subscription model where these adders are uniquely available to.

是的。到目前為止，我們一直在我們剛剛報告的客戶價值指標中，完全排除了加法器。當我們看加法器、能源社區、低收入、國內含量的 3 桶時。我們已經獲得了財政部的指導，我認為關於這兩個方面的更多信息即將出台。我們已經 - 能源社區，我們正在研究這一點。當我們解析數據並得到它時，會有一些範圍——最終確定這些視圖。但我們表達了中等個位數到中等的範圍 - 高達我們當前足蹟的 20 多歲百分比。現在，這還沒有考慮對我們的足跡進行任何調整，我們——再次，這些加法器唯一可用的訂閱模型的大約 60% 的市場份額。

There's also an opportunity to increase the mix through deliberate action. But energy communities, we have it in a range of $20 million to $100-plus million low income. That's 10% for low-income, single-family housing, low-income multifamily at 20%. That could be as much as 1/3 of our business, again, existing footprint without adjustments and the timing for that is looking like Q3, Q4 at earliest.

還有機會通過深思熟慮的行動來增加組合。但是能源社區，我們有 2000 萬美元到 100 多萬美元的低收入。低收入單戶住宅的稅率為 10%，低收入多戶住宅的稅率為 20%。這可能是我們業務的 1/3，同樣，現有的足跡沒有調整，而且時間最早看起來像第三季度、第四季度。

So that's kind of more coming in exiting the year and into next year. But again, on an annual run rate type of number 0 to $150 million, $150 million plus at the top end of the range, but we have that as close to 0 for this year as far as our planning expectation. And depending on the timing, we see that as upside. And then domestic content treasury guidance is forthcoming, and we have early traction with domestic supply.

所以在今年結束和明年會有更多的事情發生。但同樣，在 0 到 1.5 億美元的年度運行率類型上，1.5 億美元以上在範圍的頂端，但根據我們的計劃預期，我們今年的運行率接近 0。根據時間的不同，我們認為這是有利的。然後國內內容資金指導即將出台，我們對國內供應有早期的牽引力。

On the last call, we talked about U.S.-made module equipment of nearly 200 megawatts that we had access to this year. But again, treasury guidance is forthcoming on that element, and we'll get more clarity and give it to you all over time.

上次電話我們談到了今年接觸到的近200兆瓦的美製組件設備。但同樣，財政部即將就該要素提供指導，我們會變得更加清晰，並隨著時間的推移提供給大家。

Our next question comes from Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。

Maheep Mandloi here from Credit Suisse. First, maybe just on the shift of the battery products and I think in the prepared remarks, you talked about gross margins being similar to that of solar and NEM 2.0. But curious, how should we think about net subscriber value for either of those battery products versus solar product in Q2 or in the second half of this year?

來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。首先，也許只是關於電池產品的轉變，我想在準備好的發言中，你談到毛利率與太陽能和 NEM 2.0 相似。但奇怪的是，在第二季度或今年下半年，我們應該如何考慮這些電池產品與太陽能產品的淨用戶價值？

Yes. So the California solar-only and the California Shift are in a kind of directionally similar range. And then the -- to the extent we convert with solar backup. So the non-Shift product in California, that looks like the traditional kind of storage attach, which we've said is a few thousand dollars per customer. It can be as much as a few thousand dollars per customer higher. So for the majority of California, we would expect similar pre and post. The customer savings range is probably a little bit different. Our margin is a little bit different, but both still -- on both dimensions, still quite robust and on the profitability, similar range.

是的。因此，California solar-only 和 California Shift 處於一種方向相似的範圍內。然後 - 在我們使用太陽能備份轉換的範圍內。因此，加利福尼亞的非 Shift 產品，看起來像傳統的存儲附件，我們說過每個客戶需要幾千美元。每個客戶可能高出幾千美元。因此，對於加利福尼亞州的大部分地區，我們預計會有類似的事前事後情況。客戶儲蓄範圍可能有點不同。我們的利潤率有點不同，但兩者仍然——在兩個維度上，仍然相當強勁，在盈利能力方面，範圍相似。

Got it. And then just a housekeeping on the G&A per customer, we saw an uptick sequentially year-over-year and the platform margin, we saw a decline. Just curious on both those buckets. How should we think about that going forward? And specifically, any reason for that uptick in Q1 for them.

知道了。然後只是對每個客戶的 G&A 進行整理，我們看到同比連續上升，平台利潤率下降。只是對這兩個桶感到好奇。我們應該如何考慮未來的發展？具體來說，對於他們來說，第一季度上漲的任何原因。

Yes. G&A, if I look at G&A, still down quite considerably on a per customer basis as you look out over the last year or 2. In Q1, specifically, we saw increased spend on -- probably on a gross dollar basis, just growth in the business, but I would say much more impacted by the decline in volume. So again, negative, that's one of the places where negative operating cost leverage showed up as we saw a sequential decline from Q4 to Q1 on our volumes. So that was -- and then on the platform services or you can also see it in the product sales margin, we did see a bit of a decline there. Again, similar story to the extent of system sales. So these are the systems we sell either for cash or more typically with a loan product that's provided by a third party, where that looks more like a kind of a simple gross margin and we did see similar kind of volume impact. So there's some of that.

是的。 G&A，如果我看一下 G&A，在過去一年或第二年，每個客戶的基礎上仍然有相當大的下降。具體來說，在第一季度，我們看到支出增加——可能以美元總額為基礎，只是增長業務，但我想說更多的是受到銷量下降的影響。再次，消極的，這是負運營成本槓桿出現的地方之一，因為我們看到我們的交易量從第四季度到第一季度連續下降。那就是——然後在平台服務上，或者你也可以在產品銷售利潤率上看到，我們確實看到了一些下降。同樣，在系統銷售方面也有類似的故事。因此，這些是我們以現金或更典型地使用第三方提供的貸款產品出售的系統，這看起來更像是一種簡單的毛利率，我們確實看到了類似的數量影響。所以有一些。

And then included in that number is also the gross margin of our distribution business called AEE in which we did have declining margins in the period, largely due to elevated inventory levels in that business line and some price declines in the period that did depress the margin as we move the equipment through that business.

然後這個數字中還包括我們稱為 AEE 的分銷業務的毛利率，我們在此期間的利潤率確實有所下降，這主要是由於該業務線的庫存水平升高以及該時期的一些價格下跌確實壓低了利潤率當我們通過該業務移動設備時。

The next question comes from Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.

下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Philip Shen。

First one is on customer additions. You maintained your annual guidance. You had a really strong and nice Q1 customer addition number. What's holding you back from taking up the annual guidance from that 10% to 15% range higher? And what are some of the risks that you might be concerned about and perhaps contributing to you guys holding back from increasing the annual guide.

第一個是客戶增加。您保持了年度指導。您有一個非常強大且不錯的 Q1 客戶添加數。是什麼阻礙了您接受 10% 到 15% 範圍內更高的年度指導？您可能擔心的一些風險是什麼，並且可能會導致你們阻止增加年度指南。

Yes. I think directionally, we did kind of give out the message that we're more skewed towards the high end of the range. We will -- the evaluation of whether or not to move it will depend on just us getting more weeks of traction in California. We are seeing a positive and encouraging trend over what time line and to what degree we see sales move up from here will impact. Obviously, we also said there's a backlog in California so from a risk standpoint, like coming into the period, we were able to build up volume more so than we had planned for. And now we're just watching the kind of the week-over-week.

是的。我認為從方向上講，我們確實發出了這樣的信息，即我們更傾向於該範圍的高端。我們將 - 是否移動它的評估將取決於我們在加利福尼亞州獲得更多周的牽引力。我們看到一個積極和令人鼓舞的趨勢，關於什麼時間線以及我們看到銷售從這裡上升到什麼程度會產生影響。顯然，我們還說加利福尼亞有積壓，所以從風險的角度來看，就像進入這個時期一樣，我們能夠比我們計劃的更多地增加數量。而現在我們只是在看一周一周的那種。

Being a month in, we felt like it was a little too premature to kind of call any differences related to California, which is a substantial percentage of our overall mix. And then we have the -- on the other side, opportunity can come from IRA adders. The timing, the amount really matter to how they might be meaningful volume drivers for this year. And then lastly, I would say again, the shift towards more battery attached means we have a kind of a different productivity or labor efficiency in terms of number of hours. And we want to see -- we have -- we think we have opportunity there, and we want to see more of that opportunity before that moves us to change anything.

一個月後，我們覺得現在說任何與加利福尼亞相關的差異還為時過早，因為加利福尼亞在我們的整體組合中佔很大比例。然後我們有 - 另一方面，機會可以來自 IRA 加法器。時機和數量對於它們如何成為今年有意義的銷量驅動因素非常重要。最後，我要再說一遍，向連接更多電池的轉變意味著我們在小時數方面有一種不同的生產力或勞動效率。我們希望看到——我們有——我們認為我們在那裡有機會，我們希望在推動我們改變任何事情之前看到更多這樣的機會。

Great. That's a lot of detail. Follow up here is...

偉大的。這是很多細節。跟進這裡是...

I thought it wasn't much.

我以為不多。

Yes, that's definitely great. So in terms of net subscriber value, can you quantify what does materially higher mean for back half '23? Can you also share perhaps the mix of the drivers? Is it -- if you expect ex more dollars on average, what percentage of that is driven by lower cost of capital that you anticipate or equipment pricing coming down or higher pricing or something else I may not have listed.

是的，那絕對很棒。因此，就淨訂戶價值而言，您能否量化實質性更高對 23 世紀後半期意味著什麼？您能否也分享驅動程序的組合？是嗎 - 如果您平均期望更多的美元，那麼其中有多少百分比是由您預期的較低資本成本或設備定價下降或更高定價或我可能沒有列出的其他因素驅動的。

So net subscriber value driven by subscriber value of the kind of the top number, what we would not anticipate any of the difference directionally to be from interest rates. So we've run those at the near 6% discount rate. We have intention to hold that for the year, the kind of the cost of capital environment has moderated. So that wouldn't be a driver.

因此，淨用戶價值由最高數量的用戶價值驅動，我們預計不會有任何定向差異來自利率。所以我們以接近 6% 的折扣率運行它們。我們認為，今年以來，資本環境成本有所緩和。所以那不會是一個驅動程序。

As far as magnitude of change, it could be a few thousand dollars per customer, so meaningful. And from a trending standpoint, like similar to how we've achieved in the last year, like if you look at subscriber value over the last year, since Q4 2021, we've pulled that number up 23%, 19% year-over-year. This is -- I believe this is without adjusting for the discount rate even. Those are off of large -- directionally much larger pricing increases.

就變化的幅度而言，每個客戶可能是幾千美元，非常有意義。從趨勢的角度來看，就像我們去年取得的成就一樣，如果你看看去年的訂戶價值，自 2021 年第四季度以來，我們已經將該數字拉高了 23%，同比增長了 19% -年。這是 - 我相信這甚至沒有調整貼現率。這些都是大的 - 定向更大的價格上漲。

I think the pricing increases probably -- the frequency and the pace of it is regular, but I think the significance of it is smaller. Again, largely, it will be -- I think the largest driver will be the battery attach as we get just kind of the higher monthly payments, generate higher system value, but we think it's potentially a few thousand dollars per customer.

我認為定價可能會增加——它的頻率和速度是有規律的，但我認為它的重要性較小。同樣，在很大程度上，這將是——我認為最大的驅動因素將是電池連接，因為我們每月支付的費用更高，產生更高的系統價值，但我們認為每位客戶可能需要幾千美元。

Our next question comes from Sophie Karp with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Sophie Karp。

Maybe going back quickly to the loan versus lease debate and illustration that you provided on Slide 7. I was wondering if you could maybe add a little context around this because what it shows is that the difference to rate payers about $7 per month, right in the lease and the Sunrun subscription model. Is that enough to drive the Shift? Or can the lease players -- I'm sorry, loan players kind of move the economics to meet that same level of customer savings and the level of the playing field? Like how should we think about this?

也許很快回到您在幻燈片 7 上提供的關於貸款與租賃的辯論和說明。我想知道您是否可以為此添加一些背景信息，因為它表明支付給付款人的利率差額約為每月 7 美元，就在租賃和 Sunrun 訂閱模式。這足以推動轉變嗎？或者租賃玩家——對不起，貸款玩家可以改變經濟以滿足相同水平的客戶儲蓄和公平的競爭環境嗎？比如我們應該如何考慮這個？

Yes. So when customers are evaluating the options of solar, the subscription model versus a loan, the monthly payment is obviously a consideration that they make. But the lifetime cost of the system is probably the most important comparison that consumers make. And so in Sunrun's subscription model, you have your monthly payment, and that's your cost. We as the owner of the asset, service the system, maintain the system and plan to replace any parts that need to be replaced in that 25-year contract duration. So your inverter, for example, needs to be replaced, if you buy battery backup as part of your offering, that's expected and pricing to be replaced in that monthly fee.

是的。因此，當客戶評估太陽能的選擇時，訂閱模式還是貸款，顯然他們會考慮每月支付的費用。但係統的生命週期成本可能是消費者做出的最重要的比較。因此，在 Sunrun 的訂閱模式中，您需要按月付款，這就是您的成本。我們作為資產的所有者，為系統提供服務，維護系統併計劃更換在 25 年合同期限內需要更換的任何部件。因此，例如，您的逆變器需要更換，如果您購買備用電池作為產品的一部分，那麼預計和定價將在該月費中更換。

On a loan product, you pay that monthly fee that's more expensive out of the gate in most cases than the subscription. But then at year 10, you're spending thousands of dollars replacing your inverter or battery or whatever product may be and then in many cases, on the hook for regular service and maintenance. And so on an overall lifetime value, that's the big difference that we're kind of signaling and why we're bullish on the strong migration to the subscription offering.

在貸款產品上，您支付的月費在大多數情況下比訂閱更貴。但是在第 10 年，您要花費數千美元來更換逆變器或電池或任何可能的產品，然後在許多情況下，需要定期維修和維護。因此，關於整體生命週期價值，這是我們發出的信號的巨大差異，也是我們看好向訂閱產品的強勁遷移的原因。

With the subscription, the way I like to think of it is you -- we're selling peace of mind. It's less expensive and you get the peace of mind of not having that worrying concern over the life of the contract.

通過訂閱，我想的方式就是你——我們賣的是安心。它更便宜，您可以放心，不必擔心合同期限的問題。

Got it. And my second question real quick, maybe on your Shift product offering. Could you clarify what exactly is the difference between this offering versus just regular battery? Is it just the size of it is smaller versus the regular battery backup or -- what are the differences versus just the normal battery plus storage product that's been available before?

知道了。我的第二個問題很快，可能是關於您的 Shift 產品。您能否闡明此產品與普通電池之間的確切區別是什麼？只是它的尺寸比常規備用電池小，還是 - 與以前可用的普通電池加存儲產品有什麼區別？

Yes. Great question. So the product itself is a battery. And the big difference is how it's constructed and configured inside the home. So a battery that is set up for battery backup requires more intense permitting and electrical work to load -- to relocate the loads that are needed to back up the home where the Shift device is set up essentially to perform rate arbitrage and hold power that can then be self-consumed by the customer or dispatch to the grid at peak times or for grid service participation.

是的。很好的問題。所以產品本身就是一塊電池。最大的區別在於它在家中的構造和配置方式。因此，為備用電池設置的電池需要更多的許可和電力工作來加載——重新定位備份家庭所需的負載，而 Shift 設備的設置本質上是為了執行利率套利並保持電力可以然後由客戶自用或在高峰時間調度到電網或用於電網服務參與。

And so it's really the main difference is how the battery is set up and wired into the home and the efficiencies gained by bypassing a lot of the cumbersome components of full battery backup. And so when we look at the functionality of a Shift device, we actually have to preserve none of the battery capacity for backup. So in an opportunity where you're looking at grid services, you have the full capacity of the battery available to maximize grid service opportunities or pushing back power to the grid at peak demand rates to maximize value to the customer.

因此，真正的主要區別在於電池是如何設置和連接到家裡的，以及通過繞過大量備用電池的繁瑣組件而獲得的效率。因此，當我們查看 Shift 設備的功能時，實際上我們不必保留任何備用電池容量。因此，在您關注電網服務的機會中，您擁有可用電池的全部容量來最大化電網服務機會或以峰值需求率將電力推回電網以最大化客戶價值。

And our final question comes from Luke Tilkens with Piper Sandler.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Luke Tilkens 和 Piper Sandler。

You mentioned that cash declined by about $110 million, and that was a result of working capital as well as project finance timing, should we expect Q1 to be the low point in corporate cash to increase over the course of the year?

你提到現金減少了約 1.1 億美元，這是營運資金和項目融資時機的結果，我們是否應該預期第一季度是公司現金在一年中增加的低點？

I think we'll give more -- when appropriate, we'll share more on the element of cash generation, I would say, from a trending standpoint, if you go from Q4 to Q1, you can see it on the balance sheet, the meaningful increase in inventory balance happening at the same time as we're seeing the seasonally low volume, coupled with the more than normal uptick in sales activity, which it's not just the sales and marketing costs that get elevated as you move that pipeline through the operational funnel, you start to spend dollars to advance and install where the cash comes in at the time of install. So it's all the costs leading to installed trailing ahead of the actual cash event upon install, both from tax equity and warehouse facilities. So that's all the timing impact we did. We will have turned the corner on the seasonal aspect. And then as far as specific cash trajectory, we'll talk about that more when the time is appropriate.

我想我們會提供更多 - 在適當的時候，我們會分享更多關於現金生成的元素，我想說，從趨勢的角度來看，如果你從第四季度到第一季度，你可以在資產負債表上看到它，庫存餘額的顯著增加與我們看到的季節性低銷量同時發生，再加上銷售活動的增長超過正常水平，這不僅僅是銷售和營銷成本隨著管道的移動而增加在運營漏斗中，您開始花錢預付和安裝安裝時現金收入的地方。因此，所有導致安裝的成本都落後於安裝時的實際現金事件，包括稅收權益和倉庫設施。這就是我們所做的所有時間影響。我們將在季節性方面扭轉局面。然後就具體的現金軌跡而言，我們將在適當的時候進一步討論。

Okay. Great. And then just for a follow-up. Have you with the DOE on the guarantee program that they've been doing out there? And is it something that you think you could do on the lease side.

好的。偉大的。然後只是為了跟進。你和能源部一起參與了他們一直在做的保證計劃嗎？你認為你可以在租賃方面做這件事嗎？

Yes, we've definitely -- over a much longer period, looked at the program. And to your question specifically, how you might structure it through a kind of subscript like tax equity financed subscription model, I think we've also looked at just kind of capital markets also being open and attractively priced. From an upfront cash standpoint, the advance rates that result from that relative to a program that would be potentially multiple years, have a lot of complexity to work through on the -- specifically on the tax equity side, we've evaluated it. We continue to do it. That program is available to the industry for use. And I think more complex, again, on the tax equity structuring but capital also attractively priced away from the program.

是的，我們肯定——在更長的時間裡，研究了這個項目。具體到你的問題，你如何通過一種像稅收股權融資認購模式這樣的下標來構建它，我認為我們也已經研究了同樣開放且價格有吸引力的資本市場。從前期現金的角度來看，相對於可能需要多年的計劃，由此產生的預付利率在——特別是在稅收公平方面，我們已經對其進行了評估。我們繼續這樣做。該程序可供業界使用。而且我認為稅收股權結構更複雜，但資本也有吸引力地定價遠離該計劃。

Thank you. And that concludes the time that has been allotted for Q&A. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。分配給問答的時間到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。