Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Sunrun 3Q 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Patrick Jobin, Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁 Patrick Jobin。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this conference call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，接線員。在開始之前，請注意，我們將在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於我們目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大差異和不利影響。請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。

Please also note, these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chair is also on the call today and will be participating in the Q&A session that follows prepared remarks. And now let me turn it over to Mary.

另請注意，這些聲明是從今天開始發布的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改它們的義務。今天的電話會議是 Sunrun 的首席執行官 Mary Powell；和 Sunrun 的首席財務官 Danny Abajian。 Sunrun 的聯合創始人兼聯合執行主席 Ed Fenster 今天也參加了電話會議，並將參加準備好的發言後的問答環節。現在讓我把它交給瑪麗。

Thank you, Patrick. Wow, what a quarter it has been. I've been looking forward to this call to update you all on what this team has accomplished. We have more than delivered what we said we would, significantly exceeding our guidance on net subscriber value, eating the midpoint of our volume guidance despite disruptions from hurricanes and achieving a scale of over $5 billion in net earning assets.

謝謝你，帕特里克。哇，已經過了四分之一了。我一直期待著這次電話會議向大家介紹這個團隊所取得的成就。我們已經超過了我們所說的，大大超過了我們對淨訂戶價值的指導，儘管受到颶風的干擾，但仍吃掉了我們數量指導的中點，並實現了超過 50 億美元的淨收益資產規模。

Sunrun is now serving 760,000 customers, plus nearly 10,000 households in our multifamily housing projects, which are poised to expand significantly under the Inflation Reduction Act, providing incredible socioeconomic and clean energy benefits. All of this while continuing to lead on innovation. For instance, just yesterday, we announced our latest partnership on leveraging our clean energy assets to build a more sustainable and resilient solution for Puerto Rico.

Sunrun 現在為 760,000 名客戶和近 10,000 戶家庭提供多戶住宅項目服務，這些項目將根據《通貨膨脹減少法》大幅擴張，提供令人難以置信的社會經濟和清潔能源效益。所有這一切，同時繼續引領創新。例如，就在昨天，我們宣布了我們關於利用我們的清潔能源資產為波多黎各建立更可持續和更有彈性的解決方案的最新合作夥伴關係。

The macroeconomic environment presents tremendous opportunity for us as our clean energy as a subscription model allows customers to leverage and stack the latest innovative energy technologies to power their homes and cars while providing them an opportunity to save money. At the same time, the macroeconomic environment has provided an opportunity for us to demonstrate the power of quick decisive action and stellar execution as we laser focus on profitable growth.

宏觀經濟環境為我們提供了巨大的機會，因為我們的清潔能源訂閱模式允許客戶利用和堆疊最新的創新能源技術為他們的家庭和汽車供電，同時為他們提供省錢的機會。與此同時，宏觀經濟環境為我們提供了展示快速果斷行動和出色執行能力的機會，因為我們專注於盈利增長。

In the quarter, we delivered strong results and continued to execute on making Sunrun even faster, better and stronger in all dimensions of the fundamentals. First, we are delivering record cost efficiency and expanding net subscriber value even as we invest in innovation and differentiation. We grew installation volumes in Sunrun's direct business sequentially at a growth rate 3x the rate of headcount additions as installation crew efficiency increased by nearly 30%. I am tremendously proud of what our team is doing in the field each and every day for our customers.

在本季度，我們取得了強勁的業績，並繼續在基本面的各個方面使 Sunrun 更快、更好、更強大。首先，即使我們投資於創新和差異化，我們也在提供創紀錄的成本效率並擴大淨用戶價值。隨著安裝人員效率提高近 30%，我們在 Sunrun 的直接業務中以 3 倍於員工人數增加率的增長率連續增長了安裝量。我為我們的團隊每天在現場為我們的客戶所做的事情感到非常自豪。

We also maintained strong overhead cost discipline, with G&A expenses declining more than 6% compared to last year and reaching an all-time low of approximately 1,100 per new customer, a 20% improvement year-over-year, showing the benefits of our scale and disciplined approach to sustainable growth. We have been adapting to higher interest rates and strategically adjusting pricing as necessary while still providing a strong customer value proposition. This is against a backdrop of rapidly accelerating utility prices and a long-term trend of deteriorating reliability, particularly in California.

我們還保持了嚴格的間接成本紀律，與去年相比，G&A 費用下降了 6% 以上，並達到了每位新客戶約 1,100 人的歷史最低水平，同比增長 20%，顯示了我們規模的優勢和有紀律的可持續增長方法。我們一直在適應更高的利率，並在必要時戰略性地調整定價，同時仍提供強大的客戶價值主張。這是在公用事業價格迅速上漲和可靠性惡化的長期趨勢的背景下，尤其是在加利福尼亞州。

As a result of our team's strong execution, we delivered significantly improved net subscriber value in Q3 of over $13,000, exceeding guidance, even when excluding the benefit from the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, and we are guiding to continued increases in our margins for Q4. Second, we are driving strong profitable growth. We grew new installations by 17% year-over-year, deploying 256 megawatts, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance. We achieved this despite devastating hurricanes in Puerto Rico and Florida that allowed many of our existing customers to power through safely, but impacted sales and installation activities for a number of weeks.

由於我們團隊的強大執行力，我們在第三季度實現了超過 13,000 美元的淨訂戶價值顯著提高，超過了預期，即使不包括通過《通貨膨脹減少法案》帶來的好處，我們正在指導我們的利潤率持續增長Q4。其次，我們正在推動強勁的盈利增長。我們的新安裝量同比增長 17%，部署了 256 兆瓦，超過了我們指導的中點。儘管波多黎各和佛羅里達發生了毀滅性的颶風，我們實現了這一目標，這使我們的許多現有客戶能夠安全通電，但影響了數週的銷售和安裝活動。

Clearly, if not for the hurricanes, volumes would have hit the top end of the range. We are on track to deliver approximately 25% growth for the full year. Third, we continue to innovate and increase our differentiation. Just this week, the Board of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority approved a groundbreaking virtual power plant contract. Sunrun has continued to lead in the deployment of virtual power plants, adding recurring sources of cash flow we can share with our customers and most importantly, helping to increase the reliability and affordability of the entire electric system.

顯然，如果不是因為颶風，銷量將達到該範圍的上限。我們有望實現全年約 25% 的增長。第三，我們不斷創新，增加差異化。就在本週，波多黎各電力局董事會批准了一項開創性的虛擬電廠合同。 Sunrun 繼續引領虛擬電廠的部署，增加了我們可以與客戶共享的經常性現金流來源，最重要的是，有助於提高整個電力系統的可靠性和可負擔性。

This is another [postcard] from the future of the tremendous opportunity in front of us to embrace radical collaboration and to increase the efficiency and reliability of our energy systems around the country. This quarter was a powerful demonstration of the value of our existing network solar and battery systems, providing more than 1-gigawatt hour of energy back to California's grid system cumulatively over 8 days, helping to prevent rolling blackouts during the recent heat wave.

這是來自未來的另一張[明信片]，我們面前有巨大的機會來擁抱激進的合作，並提高我們在全國各地能源系統的效率和可靠性。本季度有力地展示了我們現有網絡太陽能和電池系統的價值，在 8 天內累計向加利福尼亞的電網系統提供了超過 1 吉瓦時的能量，有助於防止在最近的熱浪期間出現輪流停電。

We also provided more than 350,000 hours of backup power to thousands of customers in Puerto Rico and Florida during grid outages following the hurricanes. We also were excited during Q3 to celebrate the unveiling of Lunar Energy, a clean energy technology company that Sunrun invested in to accelerate whole home electrification. Lunar's first product will be an integrated next-generation combined battery inverter and software offering. We are excited by its launch in 2023.

在颶風過後的電網中斷期間，我們還為波多黎各和佛羅里達州的數千名客戶提供了超過 350,000 小時的備用電源。在第三季度，我們也很高興慶祝 Lunar Energy 的揭幕，這是 Sunrun 投資的一家清潔能源技術公司，旨在加速整個家庭的電氣化。 Lunar 的第一款產品將是集成的下一代組合電池逆變器和軟件產品。我們對它在 2023 年的推出感到興奮。

Our electric vehicle charger has also been very well received by our customers. We are benefiting from and helping enable the transition to electric vehicles by providing our customers the ability to run their vehicles on renewable, independently generated affordable energy. Customers who drive electric vehicles need larger systems. These solar and battery and EV resources are incredibly valuable for homeowners and the energy system alike.

我們的電動汽車充電器也受到了客戶的好評。通過為我們的客戶提供使用可再生、獨立產生的負擔得起的能源來運行他們的車輛的能力，我們正在受益於並幫助實現向電動汽車的過渡。駕駛電動汽車的客戶需要更大的系統。這些太陽能、電池和電動汽車資源對房主和能源系統都非常寶貴。

Our Ford partnership continues to deliver strong initial results. Approximately 1,000 orders for the Ford Charge Station pro have been placed thus far with thousands of additional initial conversations and a high mix of customers want the additional bidirectional home backup capability. Installs are continuing to ramp.

我們與福特的合作夥伴關係繼續取得強勁的初步成果。到目前為止，福特 Charge Station pro 已經下達了大約 1,000 個訂單，還有數千個額外的初始對話，並且大量客戶希望獲得額外的雙向家庭備份功能。安裝量繼續增加。

Shifting gears, let's talk about some policy updates. On the federal side, we were, of course, thrilled to see Congress take bold action to address climate change by passing the Inflation Reduction Act and effectively extending the investment tax credit for 10 years and reinstating it back to the 30% level. We were also very encouraged to see the focus on expanding solar to more low-income communities, multifamily properties and to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles.

換檔，讓我們談談一些政策更新。在聯邦方面，我們當然很高興看到國會採取大膽行動應對氣候變化，通過了《通貨膨脹減少法案》，有效地將投資稅收抵免延長了 10 年，並將其恢復到 30% 的水平。我們也很高興看到重點將太陽能擴展到更多的低收入社區、多戶住宅，並鼓勵採用電動汽車。

We believe Sunrun will be uniquely positioned as the leading national provider of solar and storage energy subscription offerings to expand our clean energy services and make it accessible to even more communities. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we also see tremendous opportunity in the legislation to build even greater socioeconomic impact through our work with family -- with multifamily housing.

我們相信 Sunrun 將在太陽能和存儲能源訂閱產品的全國領先供應商中獲得獨特的定位，以擴大我們的清潔能源服務並讓更多社區可以使用它。正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，我們還看到了立法中的巨大機會，可以通過我們與家庭的合作——多戶住宅來建立更大的社會經濟影響。

Today, I am proud that Sunrun already serves nearly 10,000 households in low-income multifamily housing, and we want to dramatically increase the impact we can make in these communities. On California's pending NEM proceeding, there isn't much to update beyond the chatter everyone is hearing that we may see a new proposed decision within a few weeks. Californians have spoken loud and clear over the last year that they care passionately about their ability to generate, store and use their own clean energy without being penalized for doing so.

今天，我很自豪 Sunrun 已經為近 10,000 戶低收入多戶住宅的家庭提供服務，我們希望顯著增加我們對這些社區的影響。在加利福尼亞州未決的 NEM 程序中，除了每個人都聽到的喋喋不休說我們可能會在幾週內看到一項新的提議決定之外，沒有什麼可更新的。去年，加州人大聲而明確地表示，他們非常關心自己生產、儲存和使用自己的清潔能源的能力，而不會因此而受到懲罰。

Further, repeatedly over the last year, we have seen the value of these customers and their clean energy technology are providing to all other customers of the grid by sharing their energy back with the grid during some of the highest price periods and when the grid was literally at a potential point of failure. Therefore, we remain steadfast in our hope that the commission's forthcoming revised proposal will not just continue to support this consumer-led revolution but in fact will accelerate it.

此外，在過去一年中，我們反复看到這些客戶的價值及其清潔能源技術通過在某些最高價格時期和電網運行時與電網共享能源，為電網的所有其他客戶提供了價值。從字面上看，處於潛在的失敗點。因此，我們仍然堅定地希望委員會即將修訂的提案不僅會繼續支持這場以消費者為主導的革命，而且實際上會加速它。

With more radical collaboration between distributed energy resources and utilities, we can demonstrate a more durable, resilient, cost-effective and clean energy grid for all. Keeping solar accessible to all communities in California is imperative for the state to achieve its clean energy goals. Accelerating distributed solar and storage is also critical for California's economy and for grid reliability.

通過分佈式能源和公用事業之間更激進的合作，我們可以為所有人展示一個更耐用、更有彈性、更具成本效益和清潔的能源網絡。讓加州所有社區都能使用太陽能對於該州實現其清潔能源目標至關重要。加速分佈式太陽能和存儲對於加州的經濟和電網可靠性也至關重要。

For all of these reasons, we do remain hopeful of a reasonable structure so that the entire grid can benefit from advances in technology and customer-generated stored and shared energy. On trade, we continue to navigate the dynamic environment. The current bureaucratic process from the Customs and Border Patrol continues to cause delays in the timely release of modules currently sitting at the ports for us and many in the industry, following the implementation of the WRO and subsequent UFLPA regulations.

出於所有這些原因，我們仍然希望有一個合理的結構，以便整個電網能夠從技術進步和客戶產生的存儲和共享能源中受益。在貿易方面，我們繼續在動態環境中導航。隨著 WRO 和隨後的 UFLPA 法規的實施，海關和邊境巡邏隊當前的官僚程序繼續導致我們和許多業內人士無法及時發布目前位於港口的模塊。

We continue to source high-quality modules and are maintaining adequate supply for current needs, although we would like faster actions to reduce import delays. We support UFLPA enforcement that prevents labor content from entering the United States while also facilitating a legitimate trade with unnecessary delays so that industry can deploy clean energy, meet consumer demand and help the United States achieve its climate goals. There is no time to waste.

我們繼續採購高質量的模塊，並為當前的需求保持充足的供應，儘管我們希望採取更快的行動來減少進口延遲。我們支持 UFLPA 執法，防止勞動力進入美國，同時促進合法貿易，避免不必要的延誤，以便行業能夠部署清潔能源、滿足消費者需求並幫助美國實現其氣候目標。沒有時間可以浪費了。

In conclusion, Sunrun has the right strategy and the right team in place to navigate these uncertain times. Our value proposition continues to increase as utility rates escalate rapidly and consumers demand affordable, clean and predictably priced energy. Whether continued interest rate increases or a recession, Sunrun's opportunity to deliver value to our customers and our financial partners remains incredibly strong.

總之，Sunrun 擁有正確的戰略和正確的團隊來度過這些不確定的時期。隨著公用事業費率迅速上升以及消費者需要負擔得起、清潔且價格可預測的能源，我們的價值主張將繼續增加。無論是持續加息還是經濟衰退，Sunrun 為我們的客戶和我們的金融合作夥伴創造價值的機會仍然非常強大。

As always, before turning it over to Danny, I want to express my appreciation for the team I work with every day and all the Sunrun employees working so hard to create a company that is faster, better and stronger for our customers and communities, setting the highest standards for ourselves, putting people front and center, analyzing mistakes even when winning and crushing it on the fundamentals of sustainable, profitable growth, customer obsession and innovation. Never has our cause felt more urgent. I still appreciate the Sunrunners and customers who are so key to all that we can achieve together. Over to you, Danny.

與往常一樣，在將其移交給 Danny 之前，我想對我每天與之共事的團隊以及所有 Sunrun 員工為為我們的客戶和社區創建更快、更好、更強大的公司而努力工作表示感謝，為我們自己制定最高標準，以人為本，即使在獲勝時也要分析錯誤，並在可持續、盈利增長、客戶至上和創新的基礎上打破錯誤。我們的事業從未像現在這樣緊迫。我仍然感謝 Sunrunners 和客戶，他們對我們共同實現的一切至關重要。交給你了，丹尼。

Thank you, Mary. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook. Turning first to results for the quarter. In the quarter, customer additions were approximately 35,800, including approximately 25,500 subscriber additions. Our subscriber additions were 71% of our total customer additions in the period, hovering around prior levels during the year. Our recent sales activities and the benefits from the tax credit adders in the Inflation Reduction Act, which are only available to the solar subscription model, indicate the mix of customer additions is likely to shift toward subscribers more significantly in the quarters ahead.

謝謝你，瑪麗。今天，我將介紹我們本季度的運營和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。首先談談本季度的結果。本季度，新增客戶約 35,800 人，其中新增約 25,500 名訂戶。在此期間，我們的訂戶增加量占我們總客戶增加量的 71%，在年內徘徊在之前的水平附近。我們最近的銷售活動以及僅適用於太陽能訂閱模式的《通貨膨脹減少法案》中稅收抵免增加的好處表明，在未來幾個季度，客戶增加的組合可能會更顯著地轉向訂閱者。

Solar energy capacity installed was approximately 256 megawatts in the third quarter of 2022, a 17% increase from the same quarter last year. Our Q3 installations exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range. Excluding installation downtime owing to Hurricanes Fiona and Ian late in Q3, we would have been close to the high end of our guidance range. We saw strong customer demand for our products and services in Q3.

2022年第三季度太陽能裝機容量約為256兆瓦，比去年同期增長17%。我們的第三季度安裝超過了我們指導範圍的中點。排除第三季度末颶風菲奧娜和伊恩造成的安裝停機時間，我們將接近我們指導範圍的高端。我們在第三季度看到客戶對我們的產品和服務的強勁需求。

While we are still adding customers to our pipeline, the increased pace of installations is allowing us to gradually work down our pipeline, which is slightly over 1/4 at the end of Q3, down slightly from the prior quarter. We aim to manage sales and installation activities to maintain a pipeline that optimizes our resource planning and customer experience. We now have installed over 47,000 solar and battery systems. We expect that as we introduce additional battery suppliers and work through our pipeline, battery installations will grow rapidly in the quarters ahead and attachment rates will increase meaningfully.

雖然我們仍在為我們的管道增加客戶，但安裝速度的加快使我們能夠逐步減少管道，在第三季度末略高於 1/4，比上一季度略有下降。我們的目標是管理銷售和安裝活動，以維持優化我們的資源規劃和客戶體驗的渠道。我們現在已經安裝了超過 47,000 個太陽能和電池系統。我們預計，隨著我們引入更多的電池供應商並通過我們的管道，電池安裝量將在未來幾個季度迅速增長，連接率將顯著增加。

However, current battery supply conditions and longer install cycle times have resulted in lower battery attachment expectations in the near future. Today, we are prioritizing allocation of batteries in key markets where they are needed the most for grid reliability concerns. We ended Q3 with approximately 760,000 customers and 640,000 subscribers, representing 5.4 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, an increase of 21% compared to the prior year.

然而，當前的電池供應條件和較長的安裝週期導致在不久的將來降低電池連接預期。今天，我們優先在電網可靠性問題最需要電池的關鍵市場分配電池。截至第三季度末，我們擁有約 760,000 名客戶和 640,000 名訂戶，代表 5.4 吉瓦的網絡太陽能容量，比去年同期增長 21%。

Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contract for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q3, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at $969 million with an average contract life remaining of over 17 years. In Q3, subscriber value was approximately $43,400 and creation cost was approximately $30,200, delivering a net subscriber value of nearly $13,300 compared to our prior guidance of over $10,000.

我們的訂戶通過我們提供的清潔能源的大多數合同期限為 20 年或 25 年，產生了可觀的經常性收入。在第三季度末，我們的年度經常性收入或 ARR 為 9.69 億美元，平均合同期限超過 17 年。在第三季度，訂戶價值約為 43,400 美元，創建成本約為 30,200 美元，與我們之前超過 10,000 美元的指導相比，淨訂戶價值接近 13,300 美元。

Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $338 million in the quarter. The significant adjustments we made to pricing over the last 6 months are driving the majority of our margin expansion from prior quarters. In addition, this quarter, our subscriber value reflects the benefit of a 30% tax credit as opposed to 26%, provided by the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act.

本季度產生的總價值為 3.38 億美元，即淨訂戶價值乘以該期間新增的訂戶數量。我們在過去 6 個月對定價所做的重大調整推動了我們從前幾個季度的大部分利潤增長。此外，本季度，我們的訂戶價值反映了 30% 稅收抵免的好處，而不是通過《降低通貨膨脹法案》提供的 26%。

Excluding this extra tax credit value, net subscriber value still significantly exceeded our prior guidance of over $10,000. Systems placed in service in Q1 and Q2 also benefited from the retroactive increase to the tax credit to January 1, 2022, but we opted not to recast prior quarters net subscriber values nor to reflect this benefit in our Q3 results. The magnitude of net subscriber value increased from Q2 to Q3 is significant.

不包括這個額外的稅收抵免價值，淨訂戶價值仍然大大超過了我們之前超過 10,000 美元的指導。第一季度和第二季度投入使用的系統也受益於稅收抵免的追溯增加至 2022 年 1 月 1 日，但我們選擇不重新計算前幾個季度的淨用戶價值，也不在我們的第三季度業績中反映這一好處。從第二季度到第三季度，淨用戶價值的增長幅度很大。

If you look at this on an unlevered IRR basis instead of NPV, the increase equates to an improvement in unlevered IRR of over 200 basis points. We remain vigilant in optimizing overall sales activities and adjusting our pricing and product mix to deliver profitable growth through a rising interest rate environment. These moves are already producing positive results, which you can see in Q3. We will continue to evaluate our customer offering based on incumbent utility rate changes, inflation and the interest rate environment.

如果您以無槓桿內部收益率而不是 NPV 為基礎來看待這一點，則增加等於無槓桿內部收益率提高了 200 多個基點。我們在優化整體銷售活動以及調整我們的定價和產品組合以通過不斷上升的利率環境實現盈利增長方面保持警惕。這些舉措已經產生了積極的結果，你可以在第三季度看到。我們將繼續根據現行公用事業費率變化、通貨膨脹和利率環境評估我們的客戶產品。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet. Gross earning assets were $11.5 billion at the end of the third quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from customers over time, net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures and distributions to project equity financing partners discounted at a 5% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向總和淨收益資產以及我們的資產負債表。截至第三季度末，總盈利資產為 115 億美元。總收益資產是衡量我們預計隨著時間的推移從客戶那裡收到的現金流量，扣除運營和維護成本、對稅收股權合作夥伴的分配和合夥企業翻轉結構以及對項目股權融資合作夥伴的分配，以 5% 的無槓桿資本成本貼現。

Net earning assets were nearly $5.1 billion at the end of the third quarter, an increase of $465 million or over 10% from the prior quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Although we did not recast prior net subscriber values, as previously mentioned, net earning assets benefited from the retroactive tax credit increased by approximately $40 million in Q3, with more expected in upcoming periods.

第三季度末淨收益資產接近51億美元，比上一季度增加4.65億美元或超過10%。淨收益資產是總收益資產加上現金減去所有債務。儘管我們沒有重新計算之前的淨用戶價值，但如前所述，受益於追溯稅收抵免的淨收益資產在第三季度增加了約 4,000 萬美元，預計未來期間還會增加。

Even excluding this benefit, we saw strong growth in net earning assets driven by our net subscriber value improvement. We ended the quarter with $956 million in total cash, an increase of $93 million from the prior quarter. We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund at a 30% tax credit over 340 megawatts of projects for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the third quarter.

即使不包括這一好處，我們也看到淨用戶價值的提高推動了淨收益資產的強勁增長。我們在本季度末的總現金為 9.56 億美元，比上一季度增加了 9300 萬美元。我們繼續保持穩健的項目融資渠道。截至今天，已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收權益能力，以 30% 的稅收抵免為超過第三季度部署的訂戶的 340 兆瓦項目提供資金。

Sunrun also had over $700 million in unused commitments in its $1.8 billion nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan available at the end of the quarter to fund nearly 300 megawatts of projects for subscribers. This strong capital runway allows us to be selective in timing our capital markets activity.

Sunrun 在其 18 億美元的無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款中還有超過 7 億美元的未使用承諾，該貸款可用於為訂戶近 300 兆瓦的項目提供資金。這條強大的資本跑道使我們能夠選擇性地為我們的資本市場活動安排時間。

Turning now to our outlook. Demand for our product offering remains resilient as we provide customers with affordable, clean and reliable energy. We are prioritizing strong unit margins by optimizing our sales mix and increasing pricing even while we deliver robust growth. We now expect growth in solar energy capacity installed to be approximately 25% for the full year. We expect net subscriber value to increase sequentially in Q4 and total value generated to be greater than $1 billion for the full year 2022, an increase from our prior guidance of greater than $900 million.

現在轉向我們的前景。由於我們為客戶提供負擔得起、清潔和可靠的能源，因此對我們產品的需求保持彈性。即使我們實現強勁增長，我們也通過優化我們的銷售組合和提高定價來優先考慮強勁的單位利潤率。我們現在預計全年安裝的太陽能裝機容量將增長約 25%。我們預計第四季度淨用戶價值將環比增長，2022 年全年產生的總價值將超過 10 億美元，高於我們之前超過 9 億美元的指導。

We will provide views on 2023 on our Q4 earnings call after we finalize our annual operating plan. At this point, our focus is on delivering profitable growth, efficient operations and strong unit margins while navigating a rising interest rate environment. But simply, with inflation and increasing interest rates and pending regulatory resolution in California, a focus on a disciplined strategy is paramount. Our discipline has served Sunrun well for the last 15 years, and we believe will serve the company and our stakeholders well in the current economic paradigm.

在我們最終確定年度運營計劃後，我們將在第四季度財報電話會議上提供對 2023 年的看法。在這一點上，我們的重點是在不斷上升的利率環境下實現盈利增長、高效運營和強勁的單位利潤率。但簡而言之，隨著通貨膨脹和利率上升以及加利福尼亞的監管決議懸而未決，專注於紀律嚴明的戰略至關重要。在過去的 15 年中，我們的學科一直為 Sunrun 提供良好的服務，我們相信在當前的經濟模式下，我們的紀律將為公司和我們的利益相關者提供良好的服務。

Turning briefly to our capital markets activities and outlook. While the pace of interest rate increases has been unprecedented in recent history, we have anticipated the resulting higher financing costs and raised prices against rapidly increasing utility rates. We remain in a strong position to respond to further volatility in interest rates as inflationary effects continue to attract customers to our product, one that improves the financial health of households by lowering electricity costs and providing long-term price certainty.

簡要談談我們的資本市場活動和展望。儘管加息步伐在近期歷史上是前所未有的，但我們已經預見到由此產生的更高的融資成本並在公用事業費率快速上漲的情況下提高了價格。隨著通貨膨脹影響繼續吸引客戶購買我們的產品，我們仍然處於應對利率進一步波動的有利位置，該產品通過降低電力成本和提供長期價格確定性來改善家庭的財務狀況。

We currently observe our capital cost in the mid-6% to mid-7% area. Consistent with this cost of capital range, we now expect advance rates on our newly deployed portfolios to be between 75% and 85% of contracted subscriber values, which are discounted at a 5% rate. This advance rate range is a decline from our previously indicated ranges of 85% to 95% last quarter and 95% to 100% at the start of the year.

我們目前觀察到我們的資本成本在 6% 到 7% 的中間區域。與這一資本成本範圍一致，我們現在預計我們新部署的投資組合的預付率將在合同訂戶價值的 75% 至 85% 之間，以 5% 的利率折現。這個預付款範圍比我們之前指出的上個季度的 85% 到 95% 和年初的 95% 到 100% 的範圍有所下降。

As a reminder, the numerator in advance rate includes proceeds received, net of fees from all sources, including tax equity and project level nonrecourse debt. As you may recall, several years ago, we used to report subscriber value and gross earning assets figures using a 6% discount rate and updated it to 5% when we saw capital costs fall below 4%. We generally prefer not to update the discount rate frequently to enable ease of comparison across quarters. Instead, we provide advanced rate ranges that reflect current interest rates, which allows investors to gauge the obtainable net cash unit margins on our deployments.

提醒一下，提前利率的分子包括收到的收益，扣除所有來源的費用，包括稅收權益和項目級別的無追索權債務。您可能還記得，幾年前，我們使用 6% 的貼現率報告訂戶價值和總收入資產數據，並在我們看到資本成本低於 4% 時將其更新為 5%。我們通常不希望頻繁更新貼現率，以便於跨季度比較。相反，我們提供反映當前利率的高級利率範圍，使投資者能夠衡量我們部署的可獲得的淨現金單位利潤率。

If capital costs remain elevated heading into 2023, we may adjust the discount rate assumption in our metrics and update our advance rate range accordingly. As we've shared before, we regularly enter into interest rate swaps to hedge capital costs on our newly installed customers. We are principally exposed to interest rate fluctuations between customer origination through shortly after installation.

如果到 2023 年資本成本仍然居高不下，我們可能會調整指標中的貼現率假設，並相應地更新我們的預付利率範圍。正如我們之前分享的那樣，我們定期進行利率掉期以對沖新客戶的資本成本。我們主要面臨從客戶發起到安裝後不久的利率波動。

Upon installation, our systems are financed with project level nonrecourse debt financing. Nearly all of this financing is insulated from near-term interest rate fluctuations as our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities or floating rate debt that has been hedged with interest rate swaps. We ended Q3 with over 90% of our project level debt with effectively fixed interest rates, with $2.6 billion in fixed rate securitization debt and $3.1 billion of floating rate commercial bank debt benefiting from the long-term fixed rate swaps.

安裝後，我們的系統由項目級別的無追索權債務融資提供資金。幾乎所有這些融資都不受近期利率波動的影響，因為我們的債務要么是固定息票的長期證券，要么是已通過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率債務。在第三季度末，我們 90% 以上的項目級債務具有有效固定利率，其中 26 億美元的固定利率證券化債務和 31 億美元的浮動利率商業銀行債務受益於長期固定利率掉期。

Our playbook for navigating difficult and rapidly changing capital market conditions is one I passionately develop leading our project finance efforts for over a decade prior to assuming the CFO role. The long-standing relationships we have cultivated with many capital providers in multiple markets, our reputation as a high-quality sponsor and the consistently strong payment performance trends of our customers through multiple economic cycles makes me confident we will continue to deliver the capital necessary to fuel growth, both in expansionary and recessionary times. With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

在擔任首席財務官之前，我在十多年的時間裡熱情地制定了我們應對困難且快速變化的資本市場條件的劇本，領導我們的項目融資工作。我們與多個市場的許多資本提供者建立的長期關係、我們作為高質量贊助商的聲譽以及我們客戶在多個經濟周期中始終保持強勁的支付業績趨勢，使我相信我們將繼續提供必要的資本在擴張時期和衰退時期都推動增長。有了這個，讓我把它轉回給瑪麗。

Thanks, Danny. I could not be more confident in the strength of the Sunrun team to execute on our mission and adapt to the changes around. We have an enormous opportunity ahead of us to become the trusted beloved provider of clean, affordable and reliable energy across America, and we'll continue to focus all efforts on operating efficiently and growing profitably while building for massive scale to lead the market forward.

謝謝，丹尼。我對 Sunrun 團隊執行我們的使命並適應周圍變化的實力充滿信心。我們面前有一個巨大的機會，可以成為美國值得信賴的清潔、負擔得起和可靠的能源供應商，我們將繼續將所有努力集中在高效運營和盈利增長上，同時建立大規模以引領市場前進。

Before we open the line for questions, I want to again express my deep and sincere appreciation for the big hearted ambitious team of employees at Sunrun, the customers we are blessed to serve and the many partners who work with us every single day to deliver on our mission. With that, operator, let's open the line for questions.

在我們開始提問之前，我想再次對 Sunrun 雄心勃勃的員工團隊、我們有幸服務的客戶以及每天與我們一起工作以實現目標的眾多合作夥伴表示深切和真誠的感謝我們的任務。有了這個，接線員，讓我們打開問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We have a first question from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

我們有一個來自高盛的 Brian Lee 的第一個問題。

Kudos on the solid execution on the quarter here.

對本季度的穩健執行表示敬意。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布賴恩。

Brian, Thank you.

布賴恩，謝謝。

Two questions kind of interrelated. But I guess, first off, you mentioned several times throughout the discussion about the ITC bonus adders. I know the ink is almost not even dry yet, but can you kind of walk us through the upside scenarios and maybe how your discussions with your tax equity partners are evolving now in this new landscape, maybe how the economics actually show up for you, whether it's higher subscriber value? Is it just more customer growth with the increased tax equity capacity?

兩個問題有點相關。但我想，首先，您在整個討論中多次提到 ITC 獎金加法器。我知道墨水幾乎還沒有變乾，但是您能否帶我們了解一下上行情景，也許您與您的稅務股權合作夥伴的討論現在在這個新環境中如何發展，也許經濟學實際上是如何為您展示的，是否是更高的訂戶價值？隨著稅收公平能力的提高，是否只是更多的客戶增長？

Just trying to understand the puts and takes as you take advantage of potentially 20 or 30 percentage points more on ITC.

當您在 ITC 上利用潛在的 20 或 30 個百分點時，只需嘗試了解看跌期權和接受交易。

Yes. I guess Ed will start, and I'll layer on.

是的。我猜 Ed 會開始，我會繼續說下去。

Sure, Brian. So I think, absolutely, we expect to raise tax equity financing against the adders. As you're aware, there are a few buckets of adders for customers in certain low-income (inaudible) for systems that benefit significantly from American-made equipment and from systems deployed in what are considered energy communities, which is a definition that relates to the percentage of people in a place that work for energy industry companies and/or related unemployment metrics.

當然，布賴恩。所以我認為，我們絕對希望針對加法者籌集稅收股權融資。如您所知，對於從美國製造的設備和部署在被認為是能源社區的系統中受益匪淺的系統，某些低收入（聽不清）的客戶有一些加法器，這是一個相關的定義為能源行業公司和/或相關失業指標工作的地方的人口百分比。

The regulations have not yet been written on exactly how all that is going to qualify. And so we're reticent to provide estimates for the exact sort of average investment tax credit percentage that we will achieve other than we are expecting that it can be significantly increased above 30%. It would manifest in the reported financials as an increase in subscriber value through a greater upfront tax equity contribution.

法規尚未明確說明所有這些將如何獲得資格。因此，我們不願提供我們將實現的平均投資稅收抵免百分比的確切估計值，但我們預計它可以顯著提高到 30% 以上。這將在報告的財務數據中體現為通過更大的前期稅收股權貢獻來增加用戶價值。

Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And then I guess, just related to that, I know maybe you don't want to give the exact number, but if I back out the price increases you were articulating over the past couple of quarters, it seems like the ITC 30% adjustment added maybe $1,500 or so to the reported subscriber value this quarter.

好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後我想，與此相關，我知道你可能不想給出確切的數字，但如果我取消你在過去幾個季度中所表達的價格上漲，這似乎是 ITC 30% 的調整本季度報告的訂戶價值可能增加了 1,500 美元左右。

So it would have been maybe $11,000 to $12,000, still well ahead of guide. Is that the right way to think about it? And you already sort of answered this, but once you have clarity on the ITC adders, is it just going to be sort of a fluid assumption each quarter on that ITC portion of subscriber value? Are you going to try to fix it at some sort of average level that you're targeting? Just trying to understand how much more upside you get from that potential adjustment.

所以它可能是 11,000 到 12,000 美元，仍然遠遠領先於指導。這是正確的思考方式嗎？你已經回答了這個問題，但是一旦你對 ITC 加法器有了明確的了解，它是否只是每個季度對 ITC 訂戶價值部分的一種流動假設？您是否要嘗試將其修復到您所針對的某種平均水平？只是想了解你從這種潛在的調整中獲得了多少好處。

Yes. On the first part of the question, I'll take that. The ITC adders add about greater than $1,000 per customer. So I think you're probably doing the right math there in thinking through it. And just the extra 4% benefit, just as a reminder, the folks who might not be as familiar, is calculated on fair market value, which is meaningfully less than contracted subscriber value for folks trying to do that similar math.

是的。關於問題的第一部分，我會接受。 ITC 加法器為每位客戶增加了大約 1,000 美元以上。所以我認為你可能在思考它時做正確的數學。只是額外的 4% 的好處，提醒一下，可能不那麼熟悉的人，是根據公平市場價值計算的，對於試圖做類似數學的人來說，這明顯低於合同訂戶價值。

On the second part of the question, I can take that. I think we need to understand, first, what the qualification, the exact qualification criteria are. And then I think once we're active selling in the marketplace and have some experience with it, we'll be able to update folks with a view of how it's trending and where it might go. But I think that's preliminary. I think it's -- that's still probably a couple of quarters in the future before we'll be at the place where, one, we know what the rules are; and two, we've established a track record that we can easily forecast against and share with folks.

關於問題的第二部分，我可以接受。我認為我們首先需要了解什麼是資格，確切的資格標準是什麼。然後我認為，一旦我們在市場上積極銷售並擁有一些經驗，我們將能夠向人們更新它的趨勢以及它可能會走向何方。但我認為這是初步的。我認為，在我們到達這樣的地方之前，可能還需要幾個季度，一個，我們知道規則是什麼；第二，我們已經建立了一個可以輕鬆預測並與人們分享的跟踪記錄。

But again, it is our expectation that between those several adders, we could move the tax credit significantly above 30%. Some of the adders are easier to operationalize quickly. Maybe the energy communities or the low-income communities, as an example. Some may be a slow build over time. For instance, the use of American-made equipment, it's our expectation that between the ITC adder for American-made equipment and some of the direct manufacturing subsidy in the IRA, we will see an increase in American-built products. Obviously, that also doesn't happen overnight. But over a 10-year period, it could be very significant.

但同樣，我們期望在這幾個加法器之間，我們可以將稅收抵免大幅提高到 30% 以上。一些加法器更容易快速操作。例如能源社區或低收入社區。隨著時間的推移，有些可能會緩慢構建。例如，使用美國製造的設備，我們預計在美國製造設備的 ITC 加法器和 IRA 的一些直接製造補貼之間，我們將看到美國製造的產品增加。顯然，這也不會在一夜之間發生。但在 10 年期間，它可能非常重要。

We have next question from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們有來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith 的下一個問題。

So just running with Brian's thought process here a little bit further, how does that 13,000 evolve, right? Basically, how do you think about that, not just in the next quarter where you have a lot of visibility, but really going into next year? You've got pricing, you've got this ITC, you got REX as a mix. Just talk about that a little bit further.

因此，只要稍微進一步運行布賴恩的思維過程，這 13,000 人是如何進化的，對吧？基本上，你如何看待這一點，不僅僅是在你有很多知名度的下一季度，而是真正進入明年？你有定價，你有這個 ITC，你有 REX 作為一個組合。再談一點。

And then ultimately, related, I'm just going at the same time, how do you think about providing some more explicit cash guidance? Good liquidity updates today, but just more explicit cash conversation and conversion.

最後，相關的，我只是在同一時間，你如何看待提供一些更明確的現金指導？今天有良好的流動性更新，但只是更明確的現金對話和轉換。

Right. Yes. On the first part of that, the greater than 13,000, again, we've said increased sequentially over Q4. We haven't, obviously, on this call, guided 2023 and including the component of adders we just went through a little bit premature to talk specific numbers to have a little trend into Q1. But again, increasing sequentially in Q3, there will be, obviously, the 30% level carrying into Q4 and primarily the rest is driven by pricing increases we have already made that have yet to make its way into realization on install. So that's kind of the picture for the balance of the year.

正確的。是的。在第一部分，超過 13,000 人，我們再次說過，在第四季度環比增長。顯然，在這次電話會議上，我們並沒有指導 2023 年，包括我們剛剛經歷的加法器組件，現在談論具體數字以使第一季度有一點趨勢還為時過早。但同樣，在第三季度環比增長，顯然，將有 30% 的水平進入第四季度，其餘主要是由我們已經做出的價格上漲推動的，但尚未在安裝時實現。這就是今年餘下的情況。

And remind me, your second question was on cash.

提醒我，你的第二個問題是關於現金的。

Yes.

是的。

On cash generation, I think we remain -- we continue to -- obviously, we're guiding to improving subscriber margins. We provided the advance rate guidance. I think those two taken together give a good picture on kind of cash unit margins. As far as overall cash guidance into next year, again, we'll continue to play out the year, see some of the supply chain and policy noise resolved, and I think we'll have more picture of that going into next year.

在現金產生方面，我認為我們仍然——我們繼續——顯然，我們正在指導提高訂戶利潤率。我們提供了預付款指導。我認為這兩者結合在一起可以很好地了解現金單位的利潤率。就明年的整體現金指導而言，我們將繼續發揮這一年的作用，看到一些供應鍊和政策噪音得到解決，我認為我們將在明年有更多的了解。

Yes. And the only thing I would layer on. It's Mary. The only thing I would layer on top is like as you can see and what we've been talking about is Sunrun getting faster, better, stronger and focused on crushing it on the fundamentals. So absolutely, as we think about the next quarter, the next year, that is going to continue to be our focus. And as usual, we'll talk more about 2023 on our next call.

是的。而我唯一會疊加的東西。是瑪麗。我唯一要強調的是，正如你所看到的，我們一直在談論的是 Sunrun 變得更快、更好、更強大，並專注於在基礎上粉碎它。所以絕對，當我們考慮下一個季度，明年，這將繼續成為我們的重點。和往常一樣，我們將在下一次電話會議上更多地談論 2023 年。

Got it. But no cash guidance per se or just exclusive affirmation about future cash needs right now? .

知道了。但是現在沒有現金指導本身，或者只是對未來現金需求的獨家肯定？ .

No.

不。

We have next question from the line of Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

我們有來自摩根士丹利的 Andrew Percoco 的下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on the two prior questions a little bit on pricing power. So obviously, you're benefiting from some of these prior pricing actions that you've taken in the third and fourth quarter. I think you provided a pretty helpful slide in your investor presentation just showing kind of where you guys price versus some of the incoming utilities.

只是對前面兩個問題的跟進，稍微介紹一下定價能力。很明顯，您正在從您在第三季度和第四季度採取的一些先前的定價行動中受益。我認為您在您的投資者演示文稿中提供了一張非常有用的幻燈片，只是展示了你們定價與一些傳入公用事業的比較。

Can. you just provide an update on where that stands today after these pricing changes? And how much headroom is left if you continue to see interest rates rise or (inaudible) costs rise as well?

能。您只是提供這些定價變化後今天的最新情況？如果您繼續看到利率上升或（聽不清）成本上升，還剩下多少空間？

Yes, great question. I mean, again, we provide our customers now a significant range of savings. So to your -- directly to your question, we're providing savings now. We continue to see utility rates rising. We continue to see pressure on energy costs. So we continue to believe we provide a really strong value proposition and continue to always look strategically at where we can make changes.

是的，很好的問題。我的意思是，我們現在為我們的客戶提供了大量的節省。因此，對於您的 - 直接針對您的問題，我們現在提供儲蓄。我們繼續看到公用事業費率上升。我們繼續看到能源成本的壓力。因此，我們繼續相信我們提供了一個非常強大的價值主張，並繼續始終從戰略上審視我們可以做出改變的地方。

So the other thing I would just make sure to make a point on is we have to keep in mind that the customer value proposition is multifaceted. I mean we are selling peace of mind, we are selling long-term price certainty, and that is really valued. And we also are selling the ability to power through outages. And this is all against the long-term trajectory of utility rates, which are continuing to rise and also are in so many states we sell and not just our utility rates continuing to rise, but there is so much fear that has been embedded in customers because they also feel like they don't know what's coming next, what the next increase is going to be or in some states, frankly, if they're going to have reliable power. So we think all of that continues to give us room to navigate as needed.

因此，我要確保指出的另一件事是，我們必須牢記客戶價值主張是多方面的。我的意思是我們賣的是安心，我們賣的是長期的價格確定性，這真的很有價值。我們還出售通過停電供電的能力。而這一切都與公用事業費率的長期軌跡背道而馳，公用事業費率正在持續上漲，而且在我們銷售的許多州，不僅我們的公用事業費率繼續上漲，而且客戶心中有太多的恐懼因為他們也覺得他們不知道接下來會發生什麼，下一次增長將是什麼，或者坦率地說，在某些州，他們是否會擁有可靠的電力。因此，我們認為所有這些都繼續為我們提供了根據需要進行導航的空間。

Understood. That's very helpful. And then one more on just panel availability. Where do you guys stand today in terms of panel availability? And if the UFLPA issues aren't resolved in the coming weeks and months, could it be a headwind to '23 growth despite the strong kind of tailwinds on the fundamental side from the customer demand standpoint?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後是關於面板可用性的更多信息。就面板可用性而言，你們今天站在哪裡？如果 UFLPA 問題在未來幾周和幾個月內沒有得到解決，儘管從客戶需求的角度來看，基本面有強勁的順風，但它是否會成為 23 年增長的逆風？

Yes. So on the last call, we said we had a dip below. So if I track through the history, it was greater than 100 days. We had said on the last call less than 100 days. The number today is around 60 days of supply. And just to frame that up, that compares to a normal target of around 75 days. So we are close to our target. We continue to see equipment come in on the module side. So we don't have concerns with addressing the demand.

是的。所以在最後一次電話會議上，我們說我們跌破了。因此，如果我追溯歷史，它會超過 100 天。我們在最後一次電話會議上說不到 100 天。今天的供應量約為 60 天。只是為了說明這一點，這與大約 75 天的正常目標相比。所以我們接近我們的目標。我們繼續看到設備進入模塊方面。因此，我們不擔心滿足需求。

And we're looking forward, like planned our procurement sourced from multiple geographies and planned our procurement in line with the volume we expect to see deliver through the business.

我們期待著，例如計劃我們從多個地區採購的採購，並根據我們期望通過業務交付的數量來計劃我們的採購。

We have next question from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們有來自 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer 的下一個問題。

Can you talk a little bit about the strategy around the virtual power plant? Obviously, there's an awful lot of value that you guys are providing in some geographies. Could you talk about strategy for changing that offering and how you price that?

你能談談圍繞虛擬電廠的戰略嗎？顯然，你們在某些地區提供了非常多的價值。您能否談談更改該產品的策略以及如何定價？

Yes. Thanks for the question. We are so excited. And I know as you saw and we highlighted, we just announced our contract in Puerto Rico, which, again, we're just thrilled about because it's just so important from a grid reliability and stability perspective for residents in Puerto Rico. But it also is yet another, as I said, [postcard] from the future of what is possible, candidly, all over the United States of America.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我們很興奮。我知道正如你所看到的，我們強調，我們剛剛宣布了我們在波多黎各的合同，我們對此再次感到興奮，因為從電網可靠性和穩定性的角度來看，這對波多黎各居民來說非常重要。但正如我所說，這也是另一張來自未來可能的[明信片]，坦率地說，遍布美利堅合眾國。

So we're really pleased to continue leading in the context of this kind of innovation and leveraging our energy assets, particularly the combination of clean stored energy assets around the country to provide significant value. From being consistent with our overall comments that we've always talked about relative to grid services, we've always seen that it can add close to $2,000 per subscriber of net present value over the life of the asset.

因此，我們真的很高興在這種創新的背景下繼續領先，並利用我們的能源資產，特別是全國各地的清潔儲能資產組合，以提供顯著的價值。從與我們一直談論的關於電網服務的總體評論一致，我們一直看到它可以在資產的整個生命週期內為每位訂戶增加近 2,000 美元的淨現值。

So again, it's really valuable because it provides real value to the customers who are participating in the programs. And it also then provides value to Sunrun in the context of aggregating and leveraging those assets from a grid perspective. And again, we've had so many examples of that. And also just in this quarter as well, we also announced the ISO New England program. But I would say no greater example of the value here to the grid than what we just went through in California in the context of the heat wave when there were absolutely record prices.

再說一次，它真的很有價值，因為它為參與計劃的客戶提供了真正的價值。然後它還在從網格角度聚合和利用這些資產的背景下為 Sunrun 提供價值。再說一次，我們有很多這樣的例子。同樣在本季度，我們還宣布了 ISO 新英格蘭計劃。但我想說，這裡對電網的價值沒有比我們剛剛在加州經歷的熱浪背景下的電網價值更大的例子了，當時價格絕對創紀錄。

And our customers were providing energy back to the grid and saving every other customer that is a grid customer money because of the value provided. So again, yes, it's an area I've talked a lot about. I have a lot of passion about it, radical collaboration. Let's get to a better improved grid for all. So we expect that to continue to accelerate in the coming years.

我們的客戶正在向電網提供能源，並因為所提供的價值而節省了所有其他電網客戶的錢。再說一次，是的，這是我經常談論的一個領域。我對此充滿熱情，激進的合作。讓我們為所有人建立一個更好的改進網格。因此，我們預計這將在未來幾年繼續加速。

And then with the IRA pass and all the different elements that you can stack up here and the movement on electricity prices, can you talk a little bit about where you're at in terms of potentially adding incremental geographies? And how you go about deciding where to expand into?

然後通過 IRA 通行證以及您可以在這裡疊加的所有不同元素以及電價的變動，您能否談談您在潛在增加地理區域方面所處的位置？以及您如何決定向何處擴展？

Yes. We continuously evaluate our go-to-market strategy from a geographic standpoint. We've, first and foremost, looked at the opportunity where we're already operating, then the overlap between what we preliminarily believe to be the geographies or the census tracks that might qualify for the adder. So definitely have an early leg up there in terms of go-to market, taking advantage of the opportunity to serve those communities where we already operate. And then we constantly monitor markets for potential entry.

是的。我們從地理角度不斷評估我們的市場推廣戰略。我們首先研究了我們已經在運營的機會，然後是我們初步認為可能符合加法器條件的地理或人口普查軌道之間的重疊。因此，在進入市場方面肯定要搶先一步，利用這個機會為我們已經運營的社區提供服務。然後我們不斷監測市場的潛在進入。

I'd say the factors we look for are obviously geographic, resource, local subsidy, utility power prices in those areas so we could deliver a compelling value proposition. As far as the IRA and its impacts to potential changes in geography or opening up more geographies, we'll probably talk about that more as the guidance becomes more clear.

我想說，我們尋找的因素顯然是這些地區的地理、資源、地方補貼、公用事業電力價格，因此我們可以提供令人信服的價值主張。至於愛爾蘭共和軍及其對地理潛在變化或開放更多地區的影響，隨著指導變得更加清晰，我們可能會更多地討論這一點。

We have next question from the line of James West with Evercore ISI.

我們有來自 James West 和 Evercore ISI 的下一個問題。

So curious, Mary, you talked about the supply chain for batteries still being a bit challenged in attachment rates not being where you would expect them to be as the supply chain kind of comes into more of a balanced situation. I'm curious, new customers as you're acquiring them and they're not attaching batteries because they don't have them. Are they doing the work for batteries later? Is there opportunity to go back? How was that process playing out there? Or are they just saying, "Just give me solar, I want solar, let's move to batteries that solar is on. "

太好奇了，瑪麗，你談到電池的供應鏈在連接率方面仍然面臨一些挑戰，因為供應鏈進入了更加平衡的狀態。我很好奇，當您獲得新客戶時，他們並沒有安裝電池，因為他們沒有電池。他們以後會做電池的工作嗎？有機會回去嗎？這個過程是如何進行的？或者他們只是說，“給我太陽能，我想要太陽能，讓我們轉向太陽能電池。”

Yes, great question. So again, it also really harkens to why we're so excited about Lunar and our investment there, which definitely is looking more strategic every single day. So we're really excited about having that next-generation storage inverters, software solution that will also help us unlock that customer demand.

是的，很好的問題。再說一次，這也確實說明了為什麼我們對 Lunar 和我們在那裡的投資如此興奮，這肯定每天都更具戰略意義。因此，我們對擁有下一代存儲逆變器感到非常興奮，該軟件解決方案也將幫助我們釋放客戶需求。

So yes, we view that we could be at an attachment rate that is obviously significantly higher than we are if and when we get to having a lot more supply. That said, the desire for solar energy is, again, still very compelling for so many customers. And so in many cases, we absolutely do keep track. If a customer says, "Hey, I really want to have storage later, " we obviously maintain that relationship so that we can provide it when it becomes available.

所以，是的，我們認為，如果我們獲得更多供應，我們可能會處於明顯高於我們的附著率。也就是說，對於如此多的客戶來說，對太陽能的渴望仍然非常引人注目。所以在很多情況下，我們絕對會跟踪。如果客戶說，“嘿，我真的很想以後有存儲空間”，我們顯然會保持這種關係，以便我們可以在它可用時提供它。

So yes, as it becomes available, we expect to see a very significant uptick in our attachment rate. And then yes, over time, it provides opportunity to go back and add it on to existing customers.

所以是的，當它可用時，我們預計我們的依戀率會顯著上升。然後是的，隨著時間的推移，它提供了返回並將其添加到現有客戶的機會。

Okay. That makes perfect sense. Then secondarily for me, I know California signed a new law requiring online automated permitting platforms similar to the SolarAPP, which you guys have worked with for years. Are there movements like that a foot in other states at this point?

好的。這很有意義。其次，對我來說，我知道加州簽署了一項新法律，要求類似於 SolarAPP 的在線自動許可平台，你們已經使用了多年。在這一點上，其他州是否有這樣的動作？

Well, I think really speaking to SolarAPP, I know Secretary Grand Home at DOE has been a real proponent of the SolarAPP and has been initiating conversations about it all over the country. So yes, we were encouraged by California passing that legislation. And yes, we're seeing those kinds of changes provide nice incremental improvements in the process to again help bring down the time line and the cost of the time from the customer signing to the time of installation.

好吧，我想真的在與 SolarAPP 交談時，我知道 DOE 的 Grand Home 部長一直是 SolarAPP 的真正支持者，並且一直在全國范圍內發起有關它的對話。所以，是的，我們對加州通過該立法感到鼓舞。是的，我們看到這些變化在流程中提供了很好的增量改進，再次幫助縮短了從客戶簽名到安裝時間的時間線和時間成本。

So we saw that as a positive movement in that direction. And again, we're really also very pleased and supportive of the efforts at the national level to also agitate around greater adoption of the SolarAPP.

所以我們認為這是朝著這個方向的積極運動。再說一次，我們也非常高興和支持國家層面的努力，也鼓勵更多地採用 SolarAPP。

We have next question from the line of Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

我們有來自摩根大通的 Mark Strouse 的下一個問題。

I might be splitting hairs here a bit, but I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything. With the volume growth for the year, approximately 25%, I believe on the last call, you were saying 25% or greater. Is that just a function of the hurricane? Or are you signaling something else there?

我可能會在這裡有點分裂，但我只是想確保我沒有遺漏任何東西。隨著今年的銷量增長，大約 25%，我相信在最後一次電話會議上，你說的是 25% 或更高。這只是颶風的功能嗎？還是您在那兒發出其他信號？

Yes. I think I would say, generally, we provide guidance we're comfortable with, particularly in this climate. Looking at the recent hurricanes that did imply there in the remark is a few megawatts of impact in the quarter. And looking out at the balance of the year, it's a Q4, right? Weather can be more volatile in the quarter. So just kind of taking into account normal seasonal effects, I don't think there's a demand implication in there.

是的。我想我會說，一般來說，我們提供我們感到舒服的指導，特別是在這種氣候下。看看最近的颶風確實暗示了這一點，本季度的影響只有幾兆瓦。看看今年的餘額，這是第四季度，對吧？本季度的天氣可能更加不穩定。所以只是考慮到正常的季節性影響，我不認為這對需求有影響。

Yes. I think, just to hit that point, again, these weren't like your average hurricanes because, of course, we always do anticipate some weather impacts in the context of our work and our planning. But the level of devastation, as I think you all know, in Florida, I mean, again, this was an event that really sort of took our folks out of any activities for about -- for a few weeks in both jurisdictions with a lot of growth, in particular happening in Puerto Rico.

是的。我認為，再次強調這一點，這些不像一般的颶風，因為當然，在我們的工作和計劃的背景下，我們總是會預測到一些天氣影響。但是，正如我想你們都知道的那樣，在佛羅里達州的破壞程度，我的意思是，我的意思是，再一次，這是一個真正讓我們的人們退出任何活動的事件——在兩個司法管轄區持續了幾週，有很多增長，特別是發生在波多黎各。

Of course. Yes, that makes sense. And then just given your scale, given your operational history, I think you can probably speak to this better than your peers. Just any comment that you can talk about with your trends in default and delinquency rates?

當然。是的，這是有道理的。然後考慮到你的規模，考慮到你的運營歷史，我認為你可能會比你的同行更好地談論這個問題。您可以就違約率和拖欠率的趨勢發表任何評論嗎？

And then, Danny, I mean, as you're talking to your capital providers, is that something that is -- do you think that you're getting credit for improvement in those trends or stabilization of those trends? Or do you think that there's room to go there?

然後，丹尼，我的意思是，當您與您的資本提供者交談時，您是否認為您因改善這些趨勢或穩定這些趨勢而受到讚譽？或者你認為有空間去那裡嗎？

Yes. I think generally, from a total macro picture, I think there's plenty of room to go there. It's an asset class that has been around for the last 15 years. We do offer a product that goes out as much as 25 years. So we'll continue to season into that 25-year period, and we'll continue -- our expectation is that we'll continue to generate good performance data at the project level.

是的。我認為總的來說，從整體宏觀情況來看，我認為有足夠的空間去那裡。這是過去 15 年一直存在的資產類別。我們確實提供了可以使用長達 25 年的產品。因此，我們將繼續進入那個 25 年的時期，我們將繼續 - 我們的期望是我們將繼續在項目級別生成良好的性能數據。

And as far as looking at the most recent trends, we're not seeing anything out of the ordinary as far as default rate trends go. So nice and boring there from a credit underwriting perspective in the capital markets. I think we'll continue to participate with increasing deal size in the capital markets, which will kind of deepen relationships, bring more people into the space over time as we continue frequent access into the market. So I think generally, we view that trending positively over a long period of time.

就最新趨勢而言，就違約率趨勢而言，我們沒有看到任何異常情況。從資本市場的信用承銷的角度來看，那裡既好又無聊。我認為我們將繼續參與資本市場，增加交易規模，這將加深關係，隨著我們繼續頻繁進入市場，隨著時間的推移將更多人帶入該領域。所以我認為，總的來說，我們認為這在很長一段時間內都是積極的。

We have next question from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.

我們有來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi 的下一個問題。

First, I just wanted to catch up on Slide 13, where you kind of like broke down the advanced ratios. Just doing the math, it seems like there's still the advantages of waver of the creation cost. So just wanted to understand how should we think about that next year, say, rate increase a little bit over here? And this probably goes back to the previous question on cash needs that you're trying to tackle it from a different point of view.

首先，我只是想趕上幻燈片 13，你有點像分解了高級比率。算一算，似乎還是有創造成本波動的優勢。所以只是想了解我們應該如何考慮明年，比如說，在這裡加息一點？這可能可以追溯到上一個關於現金需求的問題，您正試圖從不同的角度解決它。

Yes. But I had a little bit of trouble hearing you. So let me take a shot at the question and if I don't answer it as you asked, feel free to jump in. But yes, advance rates, we did take that down from the prior range of -- down to a new range of 75% to 85% that is consistent with the 6.5% to 7.5% range for cost of capital, which we see in the current interest rate environment, which reflects longer-term borrowing costs, which I've already taken a view on in this rate hike cycle kind of where the Fed is going to end up on very short-term borrowing costs.

是的。但我聽你說話有點麻煩。因此，讓我來看看這個問題，如果我沒有按照你的要求回答，請隨時加入。但是，是的，預付利率，我們確實把它從之前的範圍——降到了一個新的範圍75% 到 85%，這與我們在當前利率環境中看到的 6.5% 到 7.5% 的資本成本範圍一致，這反映了長期借款成本，我已經在這個加息週期有點像美聯儲最終會以非常短期的借貸成本告終。

So we look at kind of the 7- to 10-year longer-term borrowing costs. And again, the advance rate guidance we provided fully reflects that, obviously, within a range. We do see a little bit of price difference between the markets we access being the commercial bank market and the ABS market, then we kind of have had developed pretty deep access to both markets and navigate the interest rate environment from a credit spread perspective and capital availability perspective, like overall, have a good tone of the liquidity in each market and are kind of crafting the most advantageous solution based on where markets are at point in time.

因此，我們著眼於 7 至 10 年的長期借貸成本。再一次，我們提供的預付率指導充分反映了這一點，顯然，在一個範圍內。我們確實看到我們進入的市場（商業銀行市場和 ABS 市場）之間存在一點價格差異，然後我們已經開發了相當深入的市場准入，並從信用利差和資本的角度來駕馭利率環境與整體一樣，可用性角度對每個市場的流動性都有很好的基調，並且正在根據市場所處的時間點制定最有利的解決方案。

Now as far as outlook for next year, we look at that every day. And as we've said, we've become very dynamic on looking at interest rates day by day, week by week, looking at utility inflation and adjusting the business and the unit margins to continue to deliver strongly through different rate environments.

現在就明年的展望而言，我們每天都在看。正如我們所說，我們每天、每週查看利率，查看公用事業通脹並調整業務和單位利潤率以在不同的利率環境下繼續強勁交付，變得非常活躍。

Yes. And this is Ed. I just might mention a week ago, we did look at the sort of future interest rates market. And the way it's pricing, the market anticipates there being less than a 20% chance of long-term rates increasing more than 100 basis points. And against that backdrop, we feel good about the advance rate estimates that we have provided in the stack.

是的。這是埃德。我可能會在一周前提到，我們確實研究了未來的利率市場。就其定價方式而言，市場預計長期利率上漲超過 100 個基點的可能性不到 20%。在這種背景下，我們對我們在堆棧中提供的預付率估計感到滿意。

Got it. And the advance rate, like if I look at the proceeds, that's way above the creation cost, and that's probably kind of contributing to the higher cash generation guidance for the full year. But just to understand for next year, as you get higher tax credit, I think it would be fair to assume that the advance sales would be way above the creation cost even for next year?

知道了。而預付款率，就像我看收益一樣，遠高於創造成本，這可能有助於提高全年的現金生成指導。但只是為了理解明年，隨著您獲得更高的稅收抵免，我認為假設預售即使在明年也會遠高於創造成本是公平的嗎？

Yes. With the average -- the level of average tax credit going up, the advance rate should go up as should the subscriber value reflecting the higher tax credit value.

是的。隨著平均 - 平均稅收抵免水平的上升，預付率應該上升，反映更高稅收抵免價值的訂戶價值也應該上升。

We have next question from the line of David Peters with Wolfe Research.

我們有來自 Wolfe Research 的 David Peters 的下一個問題。

Just to kind of piggyback on the last question. Just now you're saying 75% to 85%, that's reflecting kind of the current environment. But just -- to the extent things were to, I guess, get worse and understanding you have pricing power, but I don't think it's a one-for-one offset. I guess, where is the line in the sand where it's, I guess, harder to fund sort of the robust growth that you guys have without other forms of capital?

只是為了背上最後一個問題。剛才你說75%到85%，這反映了目前的環境。但只是 - 在某種程度上，我猜，事情會變得更糟，並且理解你有定價權，但我不認為這是一對一的抵消。我想，在沒有其他形式的資本的情況下，難以為你們所擁有的強勁增長提供資金？

Yes. It's dependent on where do things go on rates is dependent on where do things go on inflation. That's also impacting utility rates and general price for goods going up, right? So as we think about -- if you zoom out and look at the long-term picture of long-term interest rates and utility rates, you'll see a very high correlation, and we'd expect that to continue.

是的。這取決於事情的進展情況，利率取決於事情的進展情況。這也會影響公用事業費率和商品的總體價格上漲，對吧？因此，正如我們所想的那樣——如果你縮小並查看長期利率和公用事業利率的長期圖景，你會看到非常高的相關性，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

So as I mentioned, the market right now puts a low probability of rates going much higher from here. And I think with the Fed's announcement today, we saw long-term interest rates remain pretty flat on the day. Now we'll see how things evolve over the next few days as the market digests it, but that's been so far the initial reaction. And we see many leading indicators if we just parse through economic data, not looking at official CPI data, but a lot of more leading indicators suggest that inflation is soon to be on a downward path. And it seems to match with what we're seeing in kind of the rates market and those probabilities that Ed mentioned.

因此，正如我所提到的，目前市場認為利率從這裡走高的可能性很小。我認為隨著美聯儲今天的宣布，我們看到長期利率當天保持相當平穩。現在我們將看看隨著市場消化它在接下來的幾天裡事情會如何發展，但到目前為止，這只是最初的反應。如果我們只分析經濟數據，而不是看官方的 CPI 數據，我們會看到許多領先指標，但更多的領先指標表明通脹很快就會走下坡路。它似乎與我們在利率市場中看到的情況以及 Ed 提到的那些概率相匹配。

Okay. And then just -- I think you touched on this in the prepared remarks, but just the growth in net earning assets quarter-over-quarter, how much of that was driven by the higher ITC? I think some of that was a catch-up going back to prior periods. I'm just trying to get a sense of what that growth was kind of ex that step up?

好的。然後只是 - 我想你在準備好的評論中談到了這一點，但只是淨收入資產的季度環比增長，其中有多少是由更高的 ITC 推動的？我認為其中一些是可以追溯到之前時期的追趕。我只是想了解一下這種增長是什麼？

Yes. There's -- about $40 million is related to the onetime benefit from the ITC realization of assets we placed into service prior to the quarter. And the remainder of that would be the higher net subscriber values, the higher pricing delivering into installs, which further deliver into the metric. I'd say those are the 2 primary contributing factors. Obviously, with Q3, we also delivered that at the higher ITC level into the metric.

是的。大約 4000 萬美元與 ITC 實現我們在本季度之前投入使用的資產的一次性收益有關。其餘的將是更高的淨訂戶價值，更高的安裝定價，進一步交付到指標中。我會說這是兩個主要的促成因素。顯然，在第三季度，我們也在更高的 ITC 級別將其交付到指標中。

We have next question from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

我們有來自 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler 的下一個問題。

Danny, I wanted to dig into something you mentioned in the prepared remarks surrounding the strategic focus for next year. Sounds like you're more focused on disciplined capital allocation by maximizing unit margins, just given the uncertain market environment. So one, is that a fair characterization of the focus next year? And then two, can you dig into some of the decisions you expect to make to maximize margins? Is that cost reduction? Is that a continuation of higher pricing? Any color there would be great.

丹尼，我想深入探討一下你在準備好的關於明年戰略重點的評論中提到的一些事情。考慮到不確定的市場環境，聽起來您更專注於通過最大化單位利潤率來進行有紀律的資本分配。那麼，這是對明年重點的公平描述嗎？然後是第二個，您能否深入了解您期望做出的一些決定以最大限度地提高利潤？這是降低成本嗎？這是高價的延續嗎？任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. It's definitely prioritizing the strong unit margins. We obviously -- the guidance is approximately 25% growth in volume for the year. We still want to generate robust growth in volume. And as we've kind of said consistently over the years, we view long-range industry growth trend at 15% to 20% a year. And our view on that hasn't changed. But within that, we're absolutely prioritizing the stronger unit margins. So I don't know, Mary, if you want to play around anything there?

是的。它肯定會優先考慮強勁的單位利潤率。我們顯然 - 指導是全年銷量增長約 25%。我們仍然希望產生強勁的銷量增長。正如我們多年來一直所說的那樣，我們認為長期的行業增長趨勢為每年 15% 到 20%。我們對此的看法沒有改變。但在此範圍內，我們絕對優先考慮更強的單位利潤率。所以我不知道，瑪麗，如果你想在那裡玩什麼？

No. I think it just gets back to sort of what I've talked about in terms of crushing it on the fundamentals. So we feel like we're in a really good position, really good place in terms of demand, really good place in terms of our leadership on innovation. And again, we see that we still have some continued headroom. But yes, it's that focus on crushing it on the fundamentals of strategic profitable growth, customer obsession, innovation and growing.

不。我認為它只是回到了我所說的那種在基本面上粉碎它的方式。所以我們覺得我們處於一個非常好的位置，就需求而言非常好，就我們在創新方面的領導力而言，我們處於非常好的位置。再一次，我們看到我們仍然有一些持續的空間。但是，是的，它專注於在戰略盈利增長、客戶痴迷、創新和增長的基礎上粉碎它。

That's helpful. And then just maybe as my follow-up. Just going back to Slide 13 on the presentation, it's very helpful. I was wondering if you could maybe just touch on working capital. I know that's one of the more notoriously difficult things to forecast. But maybe just conceptually, how you think -- how should we be thinking about changes in working capital in normal times and then maybe in recessionary periods as well? I'm trying to think of a way to model the drag or benefit you might have in any given year.

這很有幫助。然後也許只是作為我的後續行動。回到演示文稿的幻燈片 13，它非常有幫助。我想知道你是否可以只談談營運資金。我知道這是眾所周知的難以預測的事情之一。但也許只是在概念上，你是怎麼想的——我們應該如何考慮正常時期以及衰退時期的營運資本變化？我正在嘗試一種方法來模擬您在任何一年中可能獲得的阻力或收益。

Yes. I would say there are probably 2 primary items to cover there. The first of which is backlog. So the guidance we gave -- sorry, the information we provided was we were trending towards 2 quarters, a couple of quarters ago. We brought that down closer to 1 quarter. I think it's come in probably incrementally by a couple of weeks as we reported out this quarter.

是的。我想說那裡可能有兩個主要項目要涵蓋。第一個是積壓。所以我們給出的指導——抱歉，我們提供的信息是我們在兩個季度前趨向於兩個季度。我們將其降低到接近 1 個季度。正如我們本季度報告的那樣，我認為它可能會在幾週內逐漸增加。

So there is about a quarter's worth or slightly in excess of a quarter's worth of customer backlog. And as the business grows and the size of the -- sheer size of the backlog grows and we start spending dollars on installations and permits and lots of the soft costs, you see working capital consumption that way, which we've seen through the business given the pretty robust growth rates that we've seen recently.

因此，大約有四分之一的價值或略超過四分之一的客戶積壓。隨著業務的增長和積壓的龐大規模的增長，我們開始在安裝和許可以及大量軟成本上花費美元，您會以這種方式看到營運資本消耗，我們已經通過業務看到了這一點鑑於我們最近看到的相當強勁的增長率。

And then somewhat related to that, the second item is it's really inventory. We've had a pretty substantial rise in the inventory balance that we've carried to support that growth. And we've also talked about just supply in general through the supply chain. If we look over the 3 quarters, points we were carrying excess inventory balance more than our targets, and that's been a driver of working capital, cash consumption in the business in the recent past.

然後有點相關，第二個項目是它真的是庫存。我們為支持這種增長而進行的庫存餘額大幅增加。我們還討論了通過供應鏈的一般供應。如果我們回顧 3 個季度，我們的過剩庫存餘額超過了我們的目標，這一直是近期業務中營運資金和現金消耗的驅動力。

We have next question from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH Capital Partners.

我們有來自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Philip Shen 的下一個問題。

Given the rising rate environment, it appears demand for loans may be slowing down meaningfully, and this could result in a much slower-than-expected first half of next year for the overall industry. With the slowing of loans, clearly, a lease could be a beneficiary there.

鑑於利率上升的環境，貸款需求似乎正在顯著放緩，這可能導致整個行業明年上半年的增速遠低於預期。顯然，隨著貸款的放緩，租賃可能是那裡的受益者。

Can you talk through how you might expect demand for your lease business to accelerate ahead, especially with the ITC adders? And then can you comment on how -- whether or not you think the lease versus loan mix shifts dramatically in the coming 2 years in favor of lease?

您能否談談您預計租賃業務的需求將如何加速增長，尤其是在 ITC 加法器的情況下？然後你能評論一下 - 你是否認為租賃與貸款組合在未來 2 年內發生顯著變化，有利於租賃？

Yes. I mean I'll take it at a high level, and then I'd love Danny for you to add on. But yes, so I think we see it the way you see it. So the reality is the Inflation Reduction Act provides incentives that really are best monetized through the leasing model for customers, right, because a lot of customers don't have the tax appetite to be able to take advantage of those benefits.

是的。我的意思是我會把它放在一個高水平上，然後我希望 Danny 能加入你。但是，是的，所以我認為我們以您看待它的方式看待它。因此，現實情況是，《降低通脹法案》提供的激勵措施確實可以通過客戶的租賃模式實現最佳貨幣化，對，因為許多客戶沒有能夠利用這些好處的稅收胃口。

So fundamentally, we do believe that model is really well suited for that. I mean the other thing is, as you probably noticed in my remarks, I mean, I really think of it as somebody who went solar probably 14 years ago originally and then a couple of times since. It's like -- the power of it is so much really energy as a subscription service model, where, again, it's really such a low friction, low stress way for customers to get like the most advanced technology in their homes in an affordable rate.

所以從根本上說，我們確實相信該模型非常適合這種情況。我的意思是另一件事，正如您可能在我的評論中註意到的那樣，我的意思是，我真的認為它最初可能是 14 年前開始使用太陽能，然後又幾次。就像 - 它的力量是一種訂閱服務模式的真正能量，再次，它真的是一種低摩擦、低壓力的方式，讓客戶以可承受的價格在家中獲得最先進的技術。

So yes, we do see some trends in that direction, and we'll be thinking about it a lot as we think about next quarter and what our guidance will be for next year. But with that, Danny...

所以是的，我們確實看到了這個方向的一些趨勢，我們會在考慮下個季度以及我們明年的指導時會考慮很多。但這樣一來，丹尼...

Yes, I'd just to add more color on the kind of the near-term view before those adders take effect. If you just look at observing publicly available data on lease pricing, I think we have a strong belief. We've been adjusting our pricing significantly ahead of loan pricing getting adjusted. And that's factored into the mix shift -- or the mix -- the relative mix we see in the business today, looking back.

是的，在這些加法器生效之前，我只想在近期視圖上添加更多顏色。如果你只看一下關於租賃定價的公開數據，我認為我們有一個堅定的信念。在貸款定價調整之前，我們一直在大幅調整定價。這就是混合轉變的因素——或者說混合——我們今天在業務中看到的相對混合，回顧過去。

And over the last 3 quarters, we've been in the 70% to 75% range, plus or minus a couple of percentage points quarter-over-quarter. And we do have a forward view that given the catch-up in pricing and the higher APRs, we'd expect to see on loans going forward that the mix would shift meaningfully towards the leasing model or the subscription model over the coming few quarters.

在過去的三個季度中，我們一直處於 70% 到 75% 的範圍內，環比增加或減少了幾個百分點。我們確實有一個前瞻性的觀點，鑑於定價的追趕和更高的年利率，我們預計未來幾個季度的貸款組合將有意義地轉向租賃模式或訂閱模式。

Great. And then as a follow-on there, historically, the -- for the overall industry loan versus lease mix has been maybe 70% loan, 25 -- 20% lease, with the balance being cash. In a couple of years, could we see that maybe 50-50? Or do you think that's too far of a stretch? Or could we even completely invert it in a few years' time? Of course, a lot depends on where rates go. But knowing what you know now, could we see 50-50 in 2 years?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動，從歷史上看，整個行業的貸款與租賃組合可能是 70% 的貸款，25% 的租賃，20% 的租賃，餘額為現金。幾年後，我們能看到50-50嗎？還是您認為這太過分了？或者我們甚至可以在幾年內完全逆轉它？當然，很大程度上取決於利率的去向。但是知道你現在所知道的，我們能在 2 年內看到 50-50 個嗎？

Yes. I mean, again, from like a high-level perspective, I think it is a super compelling value proposition. When you think about really that notion catching on across America like wow, I can really roll in all of these different products and innovation and do it in a subscription kind of model. So I've always felt like, frankly, just putting aside some of the other trends we've seen, it's just -- it's a very compelling model. And again, our customers who understand it are compelled by it.

是的。我的意思是，從高層次的角度來看，我認為這是一個非常引人注目的價值主張。當你真正想到這個概念像哇那樣在美國流行時，我真的可以加入所有這些不同的產品和創新，並以訂閱的模式來做。因此，坦率地說，我一直覺得，拋開我們看到的其他一些趨勢，它只是 - 這是一個非常引人注目的模型。再一次，我們理解它的客戶被它所驅使。

And it seems like, again, if you really parse the data, so much of the data is related to what the sales person is selling kind of tied so much to what the consumer ultimately buys. So I don't think we're at the point where we want to put a stake in the ground of like what the percentages are going to be in the future. But we absolutely see that this is a very compelling business model and value proposition for customers to, again, aggregate a lot of technology because again, Sunrun's -- we're not just in the business of solar, we're in the business of solar, EV charging, storage, providing more sophisticated controls through devices like the SPAN panel.

再一次，如果你真的解析數據，那麼很多數據都與銷售人員銷售的產品相關，與消費者最終購買的產品息息相關。因此，我認為我們現在還不想在未來的百分比上投入賭注。但我們絕對看到，這是一個非常引人注目的商業模式和價值主張，讓客戶再次整合大量技術，因為 Sunrun 的——我們不僅從事太陽能業務，我們還從事太陽能業務太陽能、電動汽車充電、存儲，通過 SPAN 面板等設備提供更複雜的控制。

So again, I think as we move more and more in that direction, that model, there's very -- there's a lot of compelling features for it.

再說一次，我認為隨著我們越來越多地朝那個方向發展，那個模型，它有非常 - 有很多引人注目的功能。

We have next question from the line of Joe Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

我們有下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人的喬·奧沙。

Two questions. First, kind of following on Phil's question there, I'm thinking about this potential shift from loan to lease PPA. Typically, in ABS markets, we've seen third-party price kind of 50, 60 bps outside of loans, but things are changing. So I'm just wondering how you all think about given what Phil mentioned and then other impacts of the IRA? How do you think about how we might see those transactions priced relative to loan going forward? And then I have a follow-up.

兩個問題。首先，追隨菲爾的問題，我正在考慮這種從貸款到租賃 PPA 的潛在轉變。通常，在 ABS 市場中，我們看到第三方價格在貸款之外為 50、60 個基點，但情況正在發生變化。所以我只是想知道你們是如何看待菲爾提到的以及愛爾蘭共和軍的其他影響的？您如何看待我們如何看待這些交易相對於未來貸款的定價？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. I think there are probably some technical factors. If you look at the loan product and the way it's priced -- it's been priced, I think a lot of the investors in that asset class look to the prepayment rates and the prepayment speeds of those loans, which, as you'd imagine, with mortgage rates going up and all interest rates going up, those prepayment rates, we'd expect to have fallen as the incentive to refinance a solar loan has also fallen, which might drive relative value differences for somebody investing in a loan offering, right?

是的。我認為可能有一些技術因素。如果您查看貸款產品及其定價方式 - 它已被定價，我認為該資產類別的許多投資者都會關注這些貸款的提前還款率和提前還款速度，正如您想像的那樣，隨著抵押貸款利率的上升和所有利率的上升，我們預計這些預付款利率會下降，因為為太陽能貸款再融資的動機也下降了，這可能會導致投資於貸款產品的人的相對價值差異，對吧?

So that's on the one hand, the dynamics you'd probably see on the loan side. And if you look at credit spreads for loan securitizations, they have widened. Now there's just general widening in the market. And we'd probably say at this point, they might have widen relatively more than we'd expect for leases. We have also talked about the fact that we do have access both to the ABS market and the commercial bank market and relative liquidity dynamics and fundamentals might differ at points in time. So we are driving the best possible cost of capital at all points as we seek to turn out our deployed portfolios into the market.

所以這是一方面，你可能會在貸款方面看到的動態。如果你看看貸款證券化的信用利差，它們已經擴大了。現在市場只是普遍擴大。在這一點上，我們可能會說，它們可能比我們對租賃的預期相對擴大。我們還談到了這樣一個事實，即我們確實可以進入 ABS 市場和商業銀行市場，並且相對流動性動態和基本面可能在時間點上有所不同。因此，當我們尋求將我們部署的投資組合推向市場時，我們在各個方面都在推動盡可能高的資本成本。

Yes. And I think the one thing, Joe, I might add to that, it's Ed, is that I think like in the commercial bank market, if you were pricing a transaction today, including hedging costs, it would have a fixed handle on it, which would be inside of where the ABS market is. So I think there are 2 questions at hand, right? One is like how are loans and leases financing in the ABS market?

是的。我認為有一件事，喬，我可能會補充一點，是 Ed，我認為就像在商業銀行市場一樣，如果你今天為交易定價，包括對沖成本，它會有一個固定的處理，這將在 ABS 市場所在的位置之內。所以我認為手頭有兩個問題，對吧？一是ABS市場的貸款和租賃融資如何？

And the secondary question of like, is that even the market that you want to be executing in right now? The other thing I would mention, obviously, is the pretax cost of tax equity is below the senior debt cost for either product. And so when you think about the weighted average cost of a lease or a loan, you don't want to forget that component either.

第二個問題是，這甚至是你現在想要執行的市場嗎？顯然，我要提到的另一件事是稅收權益的稅前成本低於任何一種產品的優先債務成本。因此，當您考慮租賃或貸款的加權平均成本時，您也不想忘記該部分。

Yes, that's a good point, especially on the debt versus the ABS market. And actually, Ed, you kind of neatly anticipated my second question. I mean, there's so many things -- why he always does that. It's amazing -- the -- so many things changing just in terms of the functioning and just the plumbing of the tax equity market given direct pay and transferability and all that kind of stuff.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點，尤其是在債務與 ABS 市場上。實際上，Ed，你有點巧妙地預料到了我的第二個問題。我的意思是，有很多事情——為什麼他總是那樣做。令人驚訝的是，考慮到直接支付和可轉讓性以及所有類似的東西，就稅收股票市場的運作和管道而言，如此多的事情發生了變化。

So where do you think the tax equity IRRs are headed here when all is said and done? That is to say IRRs to tax equity investors. Could they compress?

那麼，當一切都說完之後，您認為稅收權益 IRR 將走向何方？也就是說，對股權投資者徵稅的內部收益率。他們能壓縮嗎？

I don't think that -- tax equity IRRs haven't moved very much in the almost 20 years I've been aware of the market. There are a few reasons for that. The first one is the pricing isn't risk-based. It's principally that there is a requirement that you provide a pretax return in the safe harbor and that drives an after-tax return that is typically higher than actually what the asset itself would demand. So that mutes it.

我不這麼認為——在我了解市場的近 20 年裡，稅收權益 IRR 並沒有太大變化。有幾個原因。第一個是定價不是基於風險的。主要是要求您在安全港提供稅前回報，並推動通常高於資產本身實際要求的稅後回報。所以它靜音了。

There's also the fact that accelerated depreciation becomes more valuable when interest rates are higher because it's basically a tax equity investor deferring their income tax bill into the future. So there are -- it's sort of got a component that becomes more valuable in a high interest rate environment.

還有一個事實是，當利率較高時，加速折舊變得更有價值，因為它基本上是一個稅收股權投資者將他們的所得稅賬單推遲到未來。所以有 - 它有點像在高利率環境中變得更有價值的組件。

And then obviously, in most high interest rate environment, banks are making more money, there's more supply of tax equity. So all of that is that play as well. In terms of transferability, I mean, for sure, that's going to add to the supply in the market.

然後很明顯，在大多數高利率環境下，銀行賺的錢更多，稅收權益的供應也更多。所以所有這一切也是那場比賽。就可轉移性而言，我的意思是，可以肯定的是，這將增加市場的供應。

Our sense right now is we would predominantly likely continue traditional tax equity because in the tax equity traditional market, you get a little bit more than basically $1 for your investment tax credit because you're providing depreciation value. In a transferability world, there is no depreciation benefit. So presumably, someone will pay you less than $1 per investment tax credit. And so I think that the superior unit economics will be in the sort of the traditional market. But for particular -- but potentially for like off the beaten pass projects or novel structures, transferability might be of interest to people.

我們現在的感覺是，我們很可能會繼續傳統的稅收公平，因為在傳統的稅收公平市場中，你的投資稅收抵免基本上是 1 美元，因為你提供了折舊價值。在可轉讓的世界中，沒有折舊收益。因此，大概有人會為您支付每筆投資稅收抵免不到 1 美元。所以我認為優越的單位經濟學將出現在傳統市場中。但對於特定的——但可能是像人跡罕至的項目或新穎的結構，可轉移性可能會引起人們的興趣。

We have next question from the line of Sophie Karp with KeyBanc.

我們有來自 Sophie Karp 和 KeyBanc 的下一個問題。

Congrats on the solid trend here.

恭喜這裡的穩固趨勢。

Thank you, Sophie.

謝謝你，蘇菲。

So a couple of questions here. First, I wanted to go back to Lunar, right? Could you maybe give us the investment thesis on Lunar? Is that -- is the equipment that the company will provide in any way superior to what the competition already has on the market or is planning to have on the market? And why does it make sense for you, particularly to invest rather than be a stay in kind of technology agnostic?

所以這裡有幾個問題。首先，我想回到月球，對吧？你能給我們介紹一下 Lunar 的投資論文嗎？那是——公司將提供的設備是否優於競爭對手已經在市場上擁有或計劃在市場上擁有的設備？為什麼這對你有意義，尤其是投資而不是停留在與技術無關的領域？

Yes. I mean I'm just really bullish on this investment. So thank you for the question. Really, from a -- it is definitely a next-generation technology without a shadow of a doubt. So for us, it really felt like a way to broaden and deepen basically our access to really good strong technology for this electrification revolution that's happening around us, right?

是的。我的意思是我真的很看好這項投資。所以謝謝你的問題。真的，毫無疑問，它絕對是下一代技術。所以對我們來說，這真的是一種擴大和加深我們獲得非常好的強大技術的途徑，以應對我們周圍發生的這場電氣化革命，對吧？

So again, we really saw it as -- it's not switching to 1 provider because that's not our plan at all with Lunar. We saw it as a really good strategic investment like on its own, even if we couldn't ourselves utilize what they're producing, but the happy coincidence is, guess what, we actually do get to utilize what they're producing.

再說一次，我們真的認為它 - 它沒有切換到 1 個提供商，因為這根本不是我們與 Lunar 的計劃。我們將其視為一項非常好的戰略投資，即使我們自己無法利用他們生產的產品，但令人高興的是，猜猜看，我們實際上確實可以利用他們生產的產品。

So we see it as really strong from 2 perspectives, like just as a stand-alone investment thesis to have such a high-caliber team that is developing technologies for whole home and transportation technology electrification deployment is really powerful. And then because we have so many customers and we have so much demand, the idea of also getting the opportunity to onboard another technology into our suite is just really exciting.

因此，我們從兩個角度認為它非常強大，就像一個獨立的投資論文一樣，擁有如此高素質的團隊正在為整個家庭開發技術，交通技術電氣化部署非常強大。然後因為我們有這麼多客戶，我們有這麼多的需求，所以有機會將另一種技術加入我們的套件的想法真的很令人興奮。

So again, we have great partnerships with other storage vendors in this space. We value those. We expect to continue to want those and to develop them. But we just see consumer demand growing so much that there is a place for, again, more technology to be available for our consumers. We love that. We believe very strongly in Kunal and his team, and we're really excited about their product road map and what other technology might become available to us.

同樣，我們與該領域的其他存儲供應商建立了良好的合作夥伴關係。我們重視這些。我們希望繼續需要這些並開發它們。但是我們只是看到消費者需求增長如此之快，以至於我們的消費者再次獲得了更多技術的空間。我們喜歡那個。我們非常相信 Kunal 和他的團隊，我們對他們的產品路線圖以及我們可以使用的其他技術感到非常興奮。

So it's a real win-win, particularly as we look to '23 and '24 where there's still going to probably be some constraints in the environment. We're really thrilled that we're going to have proprietary access to the technology that Kunal and his team are developing.

所以這是一個真正的雙贏，特別是當我們期待 23 年和 24 年時，環境中可能仍然存在一些限制。我們真的很高興我們將擁有對 Kunal 和他的團隊正在開發的技術的專有訪問權。

Yes, I think maybe just going back to when we decided to start the company, we had spent years providing feature requests to inverter battery, electrification manufacturers and hadn't really felt like the features and specifications that we really wanted that we knew would lower our cost and increased customer demand, were really being acted upon.

是的，我想也許只是回到我們決定創辦公司的時候，我們花了數年時間向逆變器電池、電氣化製造商提供功能要求，並沒有真正感覺到我們真正想要的功能和規格會降低我們的成本和不斷增加的客戶需求確實得到了解決。

And so the thesis was, yes, that we could by virtue of installing and having all of the customer relations that we have, have a better view into like really how to specify and establish these products. And so the goal certainly was to create a differentiated product.

所以論文是，是的，我們可以通過安裝和擁有我們擁有的所有客戶關係，更好地了解如何指定和建立這些產品。所以目標當然是創造差異化的產品。

In addition, as Mary mentioned, obviously, we felt like more battery supply, particularly for us is better. And Lunar is competing against a number of companies that operate in very high-margin areas. So it's like -- it's a good stand-alone investment. So we felt like for all those reasons, it was a very interesting move for us to make, particularly in light of having a good partner and management team identified.

此外，正如 Mary 提到的，顯然，我們感覺需要更多的電池供應，特別是對我們來說更好。 Lunar 正在與許多在高利潤領域開展業務的公司競爭。所以它就像 - 這是一個很好的獨立投資。因此，出於所有這些原因，我們覺得這對我們來說是一個非常有趣的舉措，特別是考慮到已經確定了一個好的合作夥伴和管理團隊。

Amazing. My other question is on the kind of capital allocation. Given where -- given the dislocation that we see in the equity markets and some of debt markets and where your -- debt trade, for example, does it make sense to buy it back?

驚人。我的另一個問題是關於資本配置的類型。例如，考慮到我們在股票市場和一些債務市場中看到的混亂情況以及您的債務交易地點，回購它是否有意義？

Yes. I think there's -- obviously, we've talked about the interest rate environment, the inflationary environment. I think we just prioritize the strength of our balance sheet and liquidity in this period of time over the -- relative to the trading levels on the convert and that opportunity there.

是的。我認為有 - 顯然，我們已經談到了利率環境，通貨膨脹環境。我認為我們只是在這段時間內優先考慮我們的資產負債表和流動性的實力，而不是 - 相對於轉換的交易水平和那裡的機會。

Yes, I think that ends the queue. Appreciate everyone joining in touch.

是的，我認為這結束了隊列。感謝大家加入聯繫。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session and conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。你現在可以在這個時候斷開你的線路。感謝您的參與。