Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Sunrun 1Q '22 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Patrick Jobin of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    您好,歡迎參加 Sunrun 1Q '22 財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)作為提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人,投資者關係部的帕特里克·喬賓。請繼續。

  • Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

    Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

  • Thank you, operator. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements. Please also note these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

    謝謝你,接線員。在開始之前,請注意,我們將在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於我們目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷,但實際結果可能存在重大差異和不利影響。請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。另請注意,這些聲明是從今天開始發布的,我們不承擔任何更新或修改它們的義務。

  • On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Tom VonReichbauer, Sunrun's CFO; and Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chair. Following their prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.

    今天的電話會議是 Sunrun 的首席執行官 Mary Powell; Sunrun 首席財務官 Tom VonReichbauer;以及 Sunrun 的聯合創始人兼聯合執行主席 Ed Fenster。在他們準備好的發言之後,我們將進行問答環節。

  • And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

    現在讓我把電話轉給瑪麗。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Patrick. It's wonderful to connect with all of you again today on what Sunrun has been up to in the last quarter. It's hard to believe it has only been about 2 months since our Q4 call because we have been incredibly active. And I am pleased to say we have a lot of positive developments to share.

    謝謝你,帕特里克。今天很高興再次與大家交流 Sunrun 在上個季度所做的事情。很難相信距離我們第四季度的電話會議只有大約 2 個月的時間,因為我們一直非常活躍。我很高興地說,我們有很多積極的進展可以分享。

  • I'm encouraged and excited about the progress we're making as a leading provider of clean energy. With climate-related events becoming more urgent daily, our passion and optimism about our purpose and our ability to lead a distributed clean energy revolution has never been stronger.

    作為領先的清潔能源供應商,我對我們所取得的進步感到鼓舞和興奮。隨著與氣候相關的事件每天變得更加緊迫,我們對我們的目標和領導分佈式清潔能源革命的能力的熱情和樂觀從未如此強烈。

  • Bottom line is we delivered results in Q1 that beat our expectations. We added over 29,000 customers in Q1, representing over 213 megawatts of solar energy capacity installed, a 27% increase from last year and well above our guidance. We delivered a net subscriber margin of over $7,100, which was also slightly above guidance, with an increase from last quarter.

    底線是我們在第一季度交付的結果超出了我們的預期。我們在第一季度增加了 29,000 多家客戶,太陽能裝機容量超過 213 兆瓦,比去年增長 27%,遠高於我們的預期。我們實現了超過 7,100 美元的淨用戶利潤率,這也略高於預期,比上一季度有所增加。

  • I want to cover a few topics today before I turn the call over to Tom and Ed for their quarterly updates. First, customer demand remains incredibly strong and Sunrun is growing at a rapid rate. We are also achieving these growth levels at a scale that is 2x our nearest competitor while innovating and continuing to generate value from the combination of the 2 companies. Our customer orders grew 39% compared to last year, outpacing our still impressive robust installation growth of 27%. The strong demand trends resulted in expected growth in our backlog of customers.

    在我將電話轉給 Tom 和 Ed 以獲取他們的季度更新之前,我想在今天討論一些主題。首先,客戶需求仍然非常強勁,Sunrun 正在快速增長。我們也在以 2 倍於我們最接近的競爭對手的規模實現這些增長水平,同時創新並繼續從兩家公司的合併中創造價值。與去年相比,我們的客戶訂單增長了 39%,超過了我們仍然令人印象深刻的 27% 的強勁安裝增長。強勁的需求趨勢導致我們積壓客戶的預期增長。

  • We are working strategically and expeditiously to ramp our installation capacity both internally and with our partners. We are seeing strong improvements in our internal installation capabilities and feel blessed to have some of the longest-standing channel partner relationships in the business, which are strategic and valuable for not just the incredible reach they provide in the market but also for meeting additional customer demand.

    我們正在戰略性地和快速地工作,以提高我們內部和與我們的合作夥伴的安裝能力。我們看到我們的內部安裝能力有了很大的提高,並且很幸運能夠在業務中擁有一些歷史最悠久的渠道合作夥伴關係,這不僅對於他們在市場上提供的令人難以置信的影響力而且對於結識更多客戶而言具有戰略性和價值要求。

  • I fundamentally believe we are at a tipping point of adoption [where clean energy is a novel] concept but something customers are demanding. Customers see escalating energy costs and a lack of reliable power all around them. And they want the security and peace of mind that comes with energy independence. Climate change and geopolitical issues are now affecting the daily lives of so many consumers, accelerating what I have always seen as a looming consumer-led revolution to a cleaner, more decentralized energy future, one that is customer-centric and can incorporate the more reliable, localized and innovative way consumers are thinking about powering their vehicles and home from their rooftops.

    我從根本上相信我們正處於採用[清潔能源是一種新穎的]概念的臨界點,但這是客戶要求的。客戶看到不斷上升的能源成本和周圍缺乏可靠的電力。他們想要能源獨立帶來的安全和安心。氣候變化和地緣政治問題現在影響著如此多消費者的日常生活,加速了我一直認為迫在眉睫的以消費者為主導的革命,走向一個更清潔、更分散的能源未來,一個以客戶為中心,可以整合更可靠的能源,本地化和創新的方式,消費者正在考慮從屋頂為他們的車輛和家庭供電。

  • Second, we are quickly adapting to the world around us. Material cost and interest rates have increased, and we have taken fast and effective action to adjust to these industry-wide dynamics in a way that will make us faster, better and stronger. We recently increased prices across most markets with flexibility granted to us by double-digit utility rate inflation around us. These pricing adjustments will lead to considerable increases in subscriber values and can help mitigate the recent cost pressures faced by our industry.

    其次,我們正在迅速適應我們周圍的世界。材料成本和利率增加了,我們採取了快速有效的行動來適應這些全行業的動態,從而使我們更快、更好、更強大。我們最近提高了大多數市場的價格,我們周圍的兩位數公用事業費率通脹賦予了我們靈活性。這些定價調整將導致用戶價值大幅增加,並有助於緩解我們行業近期面臨的成本壓力。

  • You can see in the accompanying slide deck that the customer additions to our backlog following this price change and other changes we have made are coming at much higher subscriber values, which we expect to realize over the coming quarters given the size of our backlog and cycle times, which vary by market.

    您可以在隨附的幻燈片中看到,在此價格變化和我們所做的其他更改之後,客戶添加到我們的積壓訂單中的訂戶價值要高得多,鑑於我們的積壓訂單和周期的規模,我們預計在未來幾個季度將實現這一點時間,因市場而異。

  • Third, we are continuing our focus on innovation. We have now deployed over 37,000 residential batteries, far more than any other energy company and are networking these batteries together to form virtual power plants in many markets. While it takes time to enter new markets and show how valuable dispatchable distributed energy resources are for the grid, at a certain point, I believe it will become self-evident to traditional utility companies and grid operators that they need to partner with us and our growing customer base, as utilities start to realize the resiliency value we offer to the grid and their customers, regulators will undoubtedly push them to do so as well. There is no quicker way to get to a more affordable resilience than by embracing the rapid adoption of distributed resources.

    第三,我們將繼續專注於創新。我們現在已經部署了超過 37,000 個住宅電池,遠遠超過任何其他能源公司,並且正在將這些電池聯網在一起,在許多市場中形成虛擬發電廠。雖然進入新市場並展示可調度分佈式能源對電網的價值需要時間,但我相信,對於傳統的公用事業公司和電網運營商來說,他們需要與我們和我們的合作夥伴是不言而喻的。不斷增長的客戶群,隨著公用事業公司開始意識到我們為電網及其客戶提供的彈性價值,監管機構無疑也會推動他們這樣做。沒有比擁抱分佈式資源的快速採用更快的方法來獲得更實惠的彈性。

  • Our partnership with Ford is on track and poised for exciting things in the very near future. Ford launched production of the F-150 Lightning last week, and Sunrun is now in the process of connecting with customers to facilitate the installation of the Charge Station Pro and the Home Integration System, along with providing options for solar and battery systems in participating markets. Over the next few months, Sunrun expects to install thousands of these systems for F-150 Lightning customers. And we will provide an update on the realized benefits of the partnership later this summer.

    我們與福特的合作正步入正軌,並準備在不久的將來發生令人興奮的事情。福特上週開始生產 F-150 Lightning,Sunrun 目前正在與客戶聯繫,以促進 Charge Station Pro 和家庭集成系統的安裝,並為參與市場的太陽能和電池系統提供選項.在接下來的幾個月中,Sunrun 預計將為 F-150 Lightning 客戶安裝數千個此類系統。我們將在今年夏天晚些時候提供有關合作夥伴關係已實現收益的最新信息。

  • During the quarter, we also invested an incremental $75 million in equity into the venture we co-established with SK. The venture is making a significant progress and expects to unveil powerful new technology by the end of 2022, with commercialization expected this year or early 2023. Sunrun currently owns approximately 37% of the venture and has preferential access to the technology being deployed. Sunrun expects the differentiated products and services will accelerate Sunrun's business and expand the customer value proposition considerably. I am incredibly excited by the unique product offerings we will have for Sunrun customers through this partnership.

    在本季度,我們還向我們與 SK 共同建立的合資企業追加了 7500 萬美元的股權投資。該合資企業正在取得重大進展,預計將在 2022 年底前推出強大的新技術,並有望在今年或 2023 年初實現商業化。Sunrun 目前擁有該合資企業約 37% 的股份,並優先獲得正在部署的技術。 Sunrun 預計,差異化的產品和服務將加速 Sunrun 的業務並大大擴展客戶價值主張。通過這次合作,我們將為 Sunrun 客戶提供獨特的產品,我感到非常興奮。

  • Fourth, we have a strong team, and we're moving fast. I am leveraging my experience transforming companies and finding ways we can make Sunrun even faster, better and stronger, adding to the foundation that has been put in place. Over the last few months, we have collapsed several layers of management structures in various parts of the business to ensure we operate nimbly and can share information and learnings from our branches and from our customers in the fastest, most streamlined way possible. We have also taken actions to expand certain areas of the business while reducing investments in others.

    第四,我們有一個強大的團隊,我們正在快速前進。我正在利用我的經驗改造公司並尋找方法讓 Sunrun 更快、更好、更強大,為已經建立的基礎增添力量。在過去的幾個月裡,我們已經在業務的各個部分瓦解了幾層管理結構,以確保我們靈活地運營,並能夠以最快、最精簡的方式分享來自分支機構和客戶的信息和經驗。我們還採取行動擴大業務的某些領域,同時減少對其他領域的投資。

  • For instance, we opted to transition a few of our subscale branches to a channel partner-driven go-to-market strategy and took decisive action to walk away from aspects of markets that fundamentally weren't hitting our return thresholds. We also refined our approach to pricing home upgrade projects and increased our investment in our customer-facing teams. With this change, we are now achieving customer care agent answer times of 10 seconds on average when a customer calls with an issue. This is a big improvement from where we were in Q4 at about 3 minutes. We're always innovating and finding new opportunities for improvement, but these are a few examples of the kinds of investments we are making to make the company stronger. All of these changes were made with a laser focus on customers and the culture of customer obsession we are building together.

    例如,我們選擇將我們的一些小規模分支機構轉變為渠道合作夥伴驅動的進入市場戰略,並採取果斷行動,擺脫從根本上沒有達到我們回報門檻的市場方面。我們還改進了對家庭升級項目的定價方法,並增加了對面向客戶的團隊的投資。通過這一變化,當客戶致電提出問題時,我們現在實現了平均 10 秒的客戶服務代理應答時間。與我們在第四季度大約 3 分鐘的情況相比,這是一個很大的改進。我們一直在創新並尋找新的改進機會,但這些只是我們為使公司更強大而進行的投資的幾個例子。所有這些改變都是以客戶為中心,以及我們共同建立的客戶至上文化。

  • I firmly believe that the more focused and deliberate we can be in our go-to-market strategies and organizational structure, the faster we can grow, innovate and respond to the needs of our customers and the communities we serve.

    我堅信,我們在進入市場的戰略和組織結構中越專注和深思熟慮,我們就能越快地成長、創新和響應客戶和我們服務的社區的需求。

  • Today, we are also announcing that effective May 30, Danny Abajian will succeed Tom VonReichbauer as our CFO. Danny currently oversees Sunrun's Project Finance group, where he has produced significant results for the company for nearly 12 years. He is a talented, driven and passionate member of the Sunrun team, who brings a wealth of experience and knowledge to the CFO role. I look forward to partnering with him for the next chapter in Sunrun's journey as he leads the combined Project Finance and Corporate Finance team.

    今天,我們還宣布,從 5 月 30 日起,Danny Abajian 將接替 Tom VonReichbauer 擔任我們的首席財務官。 Danny 目前負責監督 Sunrun 的項目融資小組,近 12 年來他為公司取得了顯著成果。他是 Sunrun 團隊中一位才華橫溢、積極進取且充滿激情的成員,他為 CFO 角色帶來了豐富的經驗和知識。我期待與他合作,開啟 Sunrun 旅程的新篇章,因為他領導了項目融資和企業融資聯合團隊。

  • Tom, who has been our CFO for the last 2 years, will be leaving Sunrun to pursue another opportunity at a private technology company outside of our industry. I am so grateful for the partnership with Tom over the last 2 years, a period which included transformational changes with the acquisition of Vivint Solar and rapid growth while navigating the challenges of COVID. Tom will remain in the consulting capacity to ensure a smooth transition for the next 4 months, and we wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

    過去 2 年一直擔任我們首席財務官的 Tom 將離開 Sunrun,在我們行業之外的一家私營技術公司尋求另一個機會。我非常感謝過去 2 年與 Tom 的合作,這段時間包括通過收購 Vivint Solar 實現的轉型變革以及在應對 COVID 挑戰的同時實現快速增長。 Tom 將繼續擔任顧問職務,以確保未來 4 個月的順利過渡,我們祝愿他在未來的工作中一切順利。

  • Last, but certainly not least, before I turn the call over to Tom and Ed, I want to thank our team for their hard work. Every time I am in a branch location or out in the field with our team, I am inspired by their passion, ingenuity and willingness to take on challenges. My mantra is delivering on our customer obsession faster, better, stronger. And I am proud of Sunrun's team, who's embracing this opportunity to maximize our impact for our customers, investors and the communities we serve.

    最後但同樣重要的是,在我將電話轉給 Tom 和 Ed 之前,我要感謝我們團隊的辛勤工作。每次我在分支機構或與我們的團隊一起在現場時,我都會受到他們的熱情、獨創性和接受挑戰的意願的啟發。我的口頭禪是更快、更好、更強地實現我們對客戶的痴迷。我為 Sunrun 的團隊感到自豪,他們抓住了這個機會,最大限度地提高我們對客戶、投資者和我們所服務的社區的影響。

  • In addition to thanking our amazing employees, I also want to express my sincerest gratitude to our customers. They are the ones transforming our country's energy system and helping to solve climate change, one home at a time at a very rapid pace. It is an honor to serve them.

    除了感謝我們出色的員工,我還要向我們的客戶表示最誠摯的感謝。他們正在以非常快的速度改變我們國家的能源系統並幫助解決氣候變化問題。為他們服務是一種榮幸。

  • Over to you, Tom. And again, thank you so much for your service to Sunrun and our planet.

    交給你了,湯姆。再次感謝您為 Sunrun 和我們的星球所做的服務。

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Thanks, Mary. It's been a privilege to get to work with you and so many talented and passionate Sunrunners over the last 2 years, and I look forward to following the company's continued success.

    謝謝,瑪麗。在過去的 2 年裡,很榮幸能與您和這麼多才華橫溢、充滿激情的 Sunrunners 一起工作,我期待著跟隨公司繼續取得成功。

  • Turning to the results for the quarter. In the first quarter, customer additions were approximately 29,500, including approximately 22,000 subscriber additions. Solar energy capacity installed was 213 megawatts in the first quarter of 2022, a 27% increase from the same quarter last year, which exceeded the guidance we provided of 195 megawatts to 200 megawatts.

    轉向本季度的結果。第一季度,新增客戶約 29,500 人,其中新增用戶約 22,000 人。 2022 年第一季度太陽能裝機容量為 213 兆瓦,比去年同期增長 27%,超過了我們提供的 195 兆瓦至 200 兆瓦的指導。

  • We saw strong customer demand for our products and services in Q1, continuing a trend we saw throughout 2021. Customer orders increased by 39% in the quarter compared to the prior year, outpacing installations, leading to a growing backlog. While this sets us up for continued strong deployment growth, the mismatch between sales and installation activities creates a drag on reported financial performance, as we've been highlighting over the last few quarters.

    我們在第一季度看到客戶對我們的產品和服務的強勁需求,延續了我們在整個 2021 年看到的趨勢。與去年同期相比,本季度客戶訂單增長了 39%,超過了安裝量,導致積壓訂單不斷增加。雖然這使我們為持續強勁的部署增長做好了準備,但銷售和安裝活動之間的不匹配會拖累報告的財務業績,正如我們在過去幾個季度中一直強調的那樣。

  • We've now installed over 37,000 batteries, and we expect battery installations to increase by more than 50% in 2022, which is twice the growth rate of overall solar installations. While battery availability constraints continue and supply chains remain dynamic, we expect to ramp up battery installations considerably in the quarters to come as supply increases.

    我們現在已經安裝了超過 37,000 塊電池,我們預計 2022 年電池安裝量將增長 50% 以上,這是整個太陽能安裝量增長率的兩倍。雖然電池供應限制仍在繼續,供應鏈保持活力,但我們預計隨著供應的增加,未來幾個季度的電池安裝量將大幅增加。

  • We ended Q1 with approximately 690,000 customers and nearly 589,000 subscribers, representing 4.9 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, an increase of 21% compared to the prior year. Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q1, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at $883 million with an average contract life remaining of over 17 years.

    我們在第一季度末擁有約 690,000 名客戶和近 589,000 名訂戶,代表 4.9 吉瓦的網絡太陽能容量,比上年增長 21%。我們的訂戶通過我們提供的清潔能源的大多數合同期限在 20 年或 25 年以下,產生了可觀的經常性收入。在第一季度末,我們的年度經常性收入或 ARR 為 8.83 億美元,平均合同期限超過 17 年。

  • In Q1, subscriber value was approximately $37,000. And creation cost was approximately $29,900, delivering a net subscriber value of over $7,100. Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $151 million in the first quarter. This result was slightly above the outlook we provided last quarter as we noted the continued effects of COVID on reduced installation capacity and knock-on effects for crew productivity in early Q1 and continued fast growth in orders. While demand has been incredibly strong over the last few quarters and our backlog has grown, we believe in our ability to scale fulfillment capabilities to serve this backlog as we move through 2022.

    第一季度,訂戶價值約為 37,000 美元。創建成本約為 29,900 美元,淨訂戶價值超過 7,100 美元。第一季度產生的總價值,即淨訂戶價值乘以當期新增訂戶數量,為 1.51 億美元。這一結果略高於我們上季度提供的展望,因為我們注意到 COVID 對第一季度初安裝能力降低和船員生產力的連鎖反應以及訂單持續快速增長的持續影響。儘管過去幾個季度的需求非常強勁,而且我們的積壓訂單有所增加,但我們相信,隨著我們進入 2022 年,我們有能力擴展履行能力以服務於這些積壓訂單。

  • As Mary mentioned, we adapted to changes in our underlying cost environment, both on higher material costs and capital costs by increasing prices across our markets, with some markets seeing double-digit increases. The underlying utility rate inflation that our customers are experiencing is in line with these pricing changes. And in many cases, utility rates are rising even faster, creating an opportunity for price increases without impairing the savings component of our customer value proposition.

    正如瑪麗所說,我們通過提高整個市場的價格來適應我們潛在成本環境的變化,包括更高的材料成本和資本成本,一些市場出現了兩位數的增長。我們的客戶正在經歷的潛在公用事業費率通脹與這些定價變化一致。在許多情況下,公用事業費率上升得更快,為提價創造了機會,同時又不損害我們客戶價值主張的儲蓄部分。

  • As you can see on Slide 9, this is having a significant impact on the subscriber values we are adding to our backlog, increasing by over $3,000 per subscriber. As we work through the backlog over the coming quarters, you'll start to see this flow through our reported subscriber value once installed, offsetting many of the cost pressures the industry is facing and delivering net subscriber values of more than $10,000 in the third quarter of this year. We are strategically optimizing overall sales activities and revising our policies on pricing and product mix in certain markets. These moves are already producing positive results.

    正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣,這對我們添加到積壓的訂戶價值產生了重大影響,每位訂戶增加了 3,000 多美元。隨著我們在未來幾個季度處理積壓工作,您將開始看到這種流動通過我們報告的用戶價值一旦安裝,抵消了行業面臨的許多成本壓力,並在第三季度提供超過 10,000 美元的淨用戶價值今年的。我們正在戰略性地優化整體銷售活動,並修改我們在某些市場的定價和產品組合政策。這些舉措已經產生了積極的效果。

  • Turning now to gross and net earning assets on our balance sheet. Gross earning assets were $10.2 billion at the end of the first quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from customers over time, net of distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures, project equity financing partners and operating and maintenance expenses discounted at a 5% unlevered capital cost.

    現在轉向我們資產負債表上的總資產和淨收益資產。第一季度末的總盈利資產為 102 億美元。總收益資產是我們預計隨著時間的推移從客戶那裡收到的現金流量的衡量標準,扣除對稅收股權合作夥伴和合夥企業翻轉結構、項目股權融資合作夥伴的分配以及以 5% 的無槓桿資本成本貼現的運營和維護費用。

  • Net earning assets were $4.5 billion at the end of the first quarter, an increase of over $200 million from the prior year but a reduction of around $150 million compared to the fourth quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. The sequential decline is primarily due to the $75 million investment in the venture with SK, the continued consumption of working capital given the strong sales activities and growing backlog and our decision to maintain strong inventory positions in the face of a dynamic supply chain environment. We ended the quarter with $863 million in total cash.

    第一季度末淨收益資產為 45 億美元,比上年增加 2 億多美元,但與第四季度相比減少約 1.5 億美元。淨收益資產是總收益資產加上現金減去所有債務。環比下降主要是由於對與 SK 合資企業的 7500 萬美元投資、鑑於強勁的銷售活動和不斷增加的積壓以及我們在動態供應鏈環境下保持強勁庫存狀況的決定而持續消耗營運資金。我們在本季度末的總現金為 8.63 億美元。

  • Turning now to our outlook. The strong customer demand we continue to see and success increasing our fulfillment capacity gives us confidence to revise our full year guidance to over 25% year-over-year growth in solar energy capacity installed. Consistent with last quarter's guidance, the volatile interest rate environment, pending California net metering policy and proposals in Congress to extend and/or increase the investment tax credit, limit our ability to provide 2022 guidance for total value generated and cash generation.

    現在轉向我們的前景。我們繼續看到強勁的客戶需求以及成功提高我們的履行能力,這使我們有信心將全年指導修訂為太陽能裝機容量同比增長超過 25%。與上一季度的指引一致,波動的利率環境、待定的加州淨計量政策和國會提出的延長和/或增加投資稅收抵免的提議,限制了我們為 2022 年總價值和現金產生提供指導的能力。

  • Due to the rapid rise in interest rates, we now expect the projects we originated prior to the recent pricing changes to generate less proceeds than previously anticipated. The opportunity to build a large California backlog or further changes to interest rates and the resulting timing of project finance activities could result in meaningful swings in total value generated and cash generation in either direction.

    由於利率迅速上升,我們現在預計我們在最近的定價變化之前發起的項目產生的收益將少於之前的預期。加州積壓大量訂單的機會或利率的進一步變化以及由此產生的項目融資活動的時間安排可能導致總價值和現金產生在任一方向上的有意義的波動。

  • We currently forecast total value generated for the full year 2022 will grow meaningfully faster than volumes and that net subscriber values will increase sequentially throughout the year. As I mentioned earlier, we expect to deliver net subscriber values above $10,000 in Q3.

    我們目前預測,2022 年全年產生的總價值增長速度將明顯快於銷量,而淨用戶價值將在全年連續增長。正如我之前提到的,我們預計第三季度的淨訂戶價值將超過 10,000 美元。

  • For the second quarter, we expect solar energy capacity installed to be in a range of 235 megawatts to 245 megawatts, which reflects more than 12% sequential growth and more than 25% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, well on track for our increased annual outlook.

    對於第二季度,我們預計太陽能裝機容量將在 235 兆瓦至 245 兆瓦之間,這反映了超過 12% 的環比增長和超過 25% 的中點同比增長,有望實現我們提高了年度展望。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Ed.

    現在我會把它交給 Ed。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Thanks, Tom. I want to echo Mary's appreciation of Tom's contributions and also to share my excitement for Danny's promotion to CFO. I have worked shoulder to shoulder with Danny for over a decade and know he is the right person for this role. His knowledge of Sunrun and his finance capabilities are unparalleled. And in his 12 years of the company, Danny has also pinch hit in several other areas, for instance, in Corporate Planning and M&A. He was instrumental to our convertible debt offering as well.

    謝謝,湯姆。我想回應 Mary 對 Tom 貢獻的讚賞,並分享我對 Danny 晉升為首席財務官的興奮。我與丹尼並肩工作了十多年,我知道他是這個角色的合適人選。他對 Sunrun 的了解和他的財務能力是無與倫比的。在公司工作的 12 年中,丹尼還在其他幾個領域取得了成功,例如在企業規劃和併購方面。他對我們的可轉換債券發行也起到了重要作用。

  • Following Danny's ascension to CFO, Stewart Bewley will lead Project Finance and report to Danny directly. I've been looking forward to Danny having this opportunity, and I'm very excited to see him open this next chapter.

    在 Danny 升任 CFO 後,Stewart Bewley 將領導 Project Finance,並直接向 Danny 匯報。我一直期待丹尼有這個機會,我很高興看到他開啟下一章。

  • Today, I'll discuss the impacts of increases in inflation and interest rates on the company, summarize our recent capital market activities and provide an update on regulatory matters.

    今天,我將討論通貨膨脹和利率上升對公司的影響,總結我們最近的資本市場活動,並提供有關監管事項的最新信息。

  • This quarter, we've been busy positioning for increasing interest rates. For instance, raising prices to new customers as necessary behind the large utility price increases that are underway. As regulated monopolies, utilities are able to pass through their higher labor, fuel and capital cost to customers. And despite an 11% year-over-year increase in national electricity prices, this pass-through has just begun. In addition, our existing capital structure is well hedged through a mix of interest rate swaps and fixed-coupon, long-dated debt securities.

    本季度,我們一直忙於加息。例如,在正在進行的大規模公用事業價格上漲之後,根據需要向新客戶提高價格。作為受監管的壟斷企業,公用事業公司能夠將較高的勞動力、燃料和資本成本轉嫁給客戶。儘管全國電價同比上漲 11%,但這種傳遞才剛剛開始。此外,我們現有的資本結構通過利率掉期和固定息票、長期債務證券的組合得到很好的對沖。

  • As Mary noted, we have implemented meaningful price increases and expect recently originated customers when installed to generate at least $3,000 in incremental net subscriber value as measured at a 5% discount rate. This benefit will flow through in Q3 and is designed to mitigate the higher material and capital cost the industry is facing.

    正如 Mary 指出的那樣,我們已經實施了有意義的價格上漲,並預計新近產生的客戶在安裝後將產生至少 3,000 美元的增量淨訂戶價值,以 5% 的折扣率衡量。這種好處將在第三季度體現出來,旨在減輕該行業面臨的更高的材料和資本成本。

  • On Slide 9, you can see the sensitivities to subscriber values using various discount rates. We currently observe our capital cost is between 5% and 6%. Increasing the discount rate 25 to 75 basis points above 5%, for instance, would reduce pro forma subscriber values by approximately $750 to $2,100.

    在幻燈片 9 上,您可以看到使用各種折扣率對訂閱者價值的敏感性。我們目前觀察到我們的資本成本在 5% 到 6% 之間。例如,將貼現率提高 25 至 75 個基點至 5% 以上,將使備考訂戶價值減少約 750 美元至 2,100 美元。

  • As you may recall, several years ago, we used to report the figure using a 6% discount rate and didn't update it to 5% until we saw capital costs below 4%. While we actively monitor capital costs, we don't plan to update the discount rate for minor fluctuations above 5%.

    您可能還記得,幾年前,我們使用 6% 的貼現率報告該數字,直到我們看到資本成本低於 4% 時才將其更新為 5%。雖然我們積極監控資本成本,但我們不打算針對 5% 以上的小幅波動更新貼現率。

  • In April, we priced a $0.5 billion asset-backed security senior note. The transaction was the largest solar lease portfolio placed in the ABS market ever across all issuers in the sector. We expect to achieve proceeds on this portfolio, net of fees from all sources, rebates, tax equity, customer prepayments, swap terminations and senior and subordinated debt of about 95% of contracted subscriber value measured at a 5% discount rate.

    4 月,我們為 5 億美元的資產支持證券優先票據定價。該交易是該行業所有發行人在 ABS 市場上最大的太陽能租賃組合。我們預計該投資組合的收益(扣除所有來源的費用、回扣、稅收權益、客戶預付款、掉期終止以及按 5% 折現率計算的合同訂戶價值的約 95% 的優先和次級債務)。

  • We expect to achieve a weighted average cost of capital for this pool of assets of about 4.5%, including benefits from interest rate swaps or about 5.5% excluding swap benefits. As we've shared before, we frequently enter into interest rate swaps to hedge capital costs on our newly installed customers.

    我們預計該資產池的加權平均資本成本約為 4.5%,包括利率掉期收益或不包括掉期收益的約 5.5%。正如我們之前分享的那樣,我們經常進行利率掉期以對沖新客戶的資本成本。

  • As we tweak our financing strategy and benefit from less robust swap terminations, we expect total advance rates to settle over the moderate term between 85% and 95% of contracted subscriber values discounted at a 5% rate. We believe a wider range is appropriate given the current volatility in the fixed income markets.

    隨著我們調整融資策略並從不太強勁的掉期終止中受益,我們預計總預付款率將在中等期限內結算,以 5% 的利率折現的簽約用戶價值的 85% 至 95% 之間。鑑於目前固定收益市場的波動性,我們認為擴大範圍是合適的。

  • Finally, as described on the last earnings call, we retired our $250 million recourse lending facility and arranged a larger $425 million facility at enhanced terms and with a longer tenure. During the quarter, we upsized that facility to $600 million on the same terms. The facility is only partly drawn.

    最後,如上次財報電話會議所述,我們退出了 2.5 億美元的追索貸款工具,並以更高的條款和更長的期限安排了更大的 4.25 億美元的貸款工具。在本季度,我們在相同條件下將該設施擴大到 6 億美元。該設施僅部分繪製。

  • We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway. As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us expected tax equity and project debt capacity to fund over 400 megawatts for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the first quarter. The multitude of events causing massive delays in the utility scale segment are causing several capital providers to experience unexpected shortfalls in 2022 transaction volumes, especially among tax equity investors. We expect this to provide a modest tailwind for us.

    我們繼續保持穩健的項目融資渠道。截至今天,已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收權益和項目債務能力,為超過第一季度部署的用戶提供超過 400 兆瓦的資金。導致公用事業規模領域大規模延誤的眾多事件導致一些資本提供者在 2022 年的交易量中出現意外短缺,尤其是在稅收股權投資者中。我們希望這將為我們提供適度的順風。

  • Turning now to an update on regulatory matters. Sunrun is in a strong position to navigate a dynamic supply chain environment, most recently compounded by the uncertainty of potential retroactive tariffs actually called by many the AD/CVD anti-circumvention matter. This investigation by the Department of Commerce concerns solar imports from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia using Chinese inputs.

    現在轉向有關監管事項的更新。 Sunrun 在動態供應鏈環境中處於有利地位,最近由於許多 AD/CVD 反規避問題實際調用的潛在追溯關稅的不確定性而加劇。商務部的這項調查涉及使用中國投入從馬來西亞、泰國、越南和柬埔寨進口的太陽能。

  • To maintain high levels of component supply, particularly solar modules, we continue to increase our inventory position. As of March 31, we held over $0.5 billion of inventory on balance sheet, up $49 million during the quarter and up $273 million since the start of 2021. We have over 100 days of supply on hand of both modules and inverters and continue to procure modules from a diversified base of manufacturers.

    為了維持高水平的組件供應,特別是太陽能組件,我們繼續增加庫存。截至 3 月 31 日,我們在資產負債表上持有超過 5 億美元的庫存,本季度增加了 4900 萬美元,自 2021 年初以來增加了 2.73 億美元。我們手頭有超過 100 天的模塊和逆變器供應,並繼續採購來自多元化製造商的模塊。

  • We believe the Department of Commerce's investigation is misplaced and contrary to the administration's objective to encourage the transition to clean energy. Most head scratching is that the application of tariffs against these countries would simply cause American solar developers to buy panels directly from China, which currently exports almost no product to the United States.

    我們認為商務部的調查是錯誤的,與政府鼓勵向清潔能源過渡的目標背道而馳。最讓人頭疼的是,對這些國家徵收關稅只會導緻美國太陽能開發商直接從中國購買太陽能電池板,而中國目前幾乎不向美國出口任何產品。

  • We have entered into several supply arrangements for hundreds of megawatts of solar modules in total for manufacturers unaffected by the investigation. We also expect to enter into additional agreements in the coming months. Purchases from such manufacturers may be on less favorable terms than our existing suppliers and result in increased working capital investments.

    我們已經為未受調查影響的製造商達成了數項總計數百兆瓦的太陽能組件的供應安排。我們還預計在未來幾個月內簽訂更多協議。從這些製造商處採購的條件可能不如我們現有的供應商,並導致營運資本投資增加。

  • Last week, the Republican Governor of Florida vetoed an anti-solar bill that was drafted by the state's utilities and pushed through the legislature earlier this year. The vetoed bill, which was somewhat watered down as it went through the legislature, proposed certain reductions to net metering in future years and called for a regulatory proceeding to consider a fixed fee for solar customers.

    上週,佛羅里達州共和黨州長否決了一項由該州公用事業公司起草並在今年早些時候通過立法機關的反太陽能法案。被否決的法案在通過立法機關時有所淡化,提議在未來幾年減少淨計量,並呼籲監管程序考慮對太陽能客戶收取固定費用。

  • While also citing inflationary pressures. Governor DeSantis' veto statement essentially said that no one should be forced to pay utility for power, the utility never produced or sold in the first place. Prior to the veto, the largest utility in Florida was granted a double-digit rate increase. We believe the read-through to California is positive and the comparison was immediately taken up by the media. For instance, political opined, "DeSantis is now in the position of setting a pro solar bar for his rival, California Governor, Gavin Newsom, to clear." In addition, the massive delays in utility scale renewable development are causing elevated blackout risk in California.

    同時還引用了通脹壓力。德桑蒂斯州長的否決聲明實質上是說,不應強迫任何人為電力支付公用事業費用,公用事業公司從一開始就從未生產或出售過。在否決權之前,佛羅里達州最大的公用事業公司獲得了兩位數的費率增長。我們認為對加利福尼亞的解讀是積極的,並且媒體立即進行了比較。例如,政治觀點認為,“德桑蒂斯現在正處於為他的競爭對手加利福尼亞州州長加文·紐瑟姆設立一個專業太陽能酒吧的位置,以清除。”此外,公用事業規模可再生能源開發的大規模延遲導致加州停電風險升高。

  • On April 27, Governor Newsom wrote the Commerce Department that their investigation alone threatens our ability to maintain energy reliability ahead of the retirement of 6,000 megawatts primarily generated by aging gas-powered once-through cooling plants. Utility-scale projects are also struggling under pressure from unforeseen capital cost increases and permitting delays. Throttling rooftop solar and storage deployment against such a shortfall looks even less wise than it did in December.

    4 月 27 日,州長紐瑟姆寫信給商務部,僅他們的調查就威脅到我們在主要由老化的燃氣直流冷卻廠產生的 6,000 兆瓦電力退役之前維持能源可靠性的能力。公用事業規模的項目也在無法預見的資本成本增加和允許延誤的壓力下苦苦掙扎。針對這樣的短缺限制屋頂太陽能和存儲部署看起來比去年 12 月更不明智。

  • We remain optimistic that Congress may come together to pass some sort of climate legislation, which includes an investment tax credit extension. But we don't proclaim to have a crystal ball to predict when parties will come to the table, if they will reach an agreement or what the scope of any agreement might be. We will remain active in urging Congress to act. But we'll manage the business assuming the status quo for the time being.

    我們仍然樂觀地認為,國會可能會聚在一起通過某種氣候立法,其中包括延長投資稅收抵免。但我們並沒有宣稱擁有一個水晶球來預測各方何時會坐到談判桌前,他們是否會達成協議或任何協議的範圍可能是什麼。我們將繼續積極敦促國會採取行動。但我們將暫時假設現狀來管理業務。

  • With that, let me turn it back over to Mary.

    有了這個,讓我把它還給瑪麗。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Ed. I'm so excited about Sunrun's leading position in this industry. I believe we are at a tipping point of adoption and starting to see a transformational change in how consumers think about energy.

    謝謝,埃德。我對 Sunrun 在這個行業的領先地位感到非常興奮。我相信我們正處於採用的臨界點,並開始看到消費者對能源的看法發生了變革。

  • Before we open the line for questions, I want to stress how appreciative I am of our team, our customers and our partners, who are all helping create a planet run by the sun. With that, operator, let's open the line for questions.

    在我們開始提問之前,我想強調我對我們的團隊、我們的客戶和我們的合作夥伴的感激之情,他們都在幫助創造一個由太陽運行的星球。有了這個,接線員,讓我們打開問題的線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Brian Lee from Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • Kudos on the nice execution here. I guess first question I had was just on the subscriber value. You're going from $7,000 here for the past couple of quarters to now $10,000-plus in Q3. I know you've talked about pricing a ton. So I know that's a clear driver. But I would assume there's other drivers here in terms of mix and cost improvements, more batteries.

    感謝這裡的出色執行。我想我的第一個問題只是關於訂閱者的價值。您將從過去幾個季度的 7,000 美元到現在的第三季度超過 10,000 美元。我知道你談到了定價一噸。所以我知道這是一個明確的驅動程序。但我認為在混合和成本改進方面還有其他驅動因素,更多的電池。

  • So can you kind of give us a bit of a bridge from the $7,000 to the $10,000? How much is price? How much is other drivers? And then I know historically, you've talked about subscriber value targets up into the $10,000 to $12,000 range. What is this sort of pull forward here this year to get to that $10,000 range already mean for kind of the longer-term targets? And then I had a follow-up.

    那麼你能給我們一點從 7,000 美元到 10,000 美元的橋樑嗎?價格是多少?其他司機多少錢?然後我知道,從歷史上看,您曾談到訂戶價值目標高達 10,000 美元到 12,000 美元之間。今年在這里達到 10,000 美元的區間對於長期目標來說意味著什麼?然後我進行了跟進。

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Yes. Thanks, Brian. So the last 2 quarters, we saw abnormal effects from the drag of COVID and labor productivity challenges there at the end of Q4 and early Q1. So we saw those abate throughout Q1 and certainly haven't continued to here into Q2. The pricing moves will be a large component of this but continuing to increase battery attach rate as well. Some of the general ongoing efficiency measures we've taken as well will show up as positive moves on net subscriber value. Offset partially by rising material costs. So as we've taken on slightly more expensive components over the last couple of quarters, those start to work their way into the installed volume here in subsequent quarters.

    是的。謝謝,布賴恩。因此,在過去的兩個季度中,我們在第四季度末和第一季度初看到了 COVID 的拖累和勞動生產率挑戰的異常影響。所以我們看到這些在整個第一季度都在減弱,而且肯定沒有繼續到第二季度。定價變動將是其中的一個重要組成部分,但也會繼續提高電池連接率。我們已經採取的一些普遍的持續效率措施也將顯示為淨訂戶價值的積極舉措。材料成本上漲部分抵消。因此,由於我們在過去幾個季度中採用了稍微昂貴的組件,這些組件在隨後的幾個季度開始進入安裝量。

  • We view the greater than $10,000 number for Q3 as an outcome that we're particularly excited about and optimistic in. And I don't think it's fundamental change from long-term views. Maybe it sounds like, to your point, it's sooner than you had expected, but definitely the direction we've been pushing for quite a while. I think we want to see where the pricing changes land and work through our backlog.

    我們認為第三季度超過 10,000 美元的數字是我們特別興奮和樂觀的結果。我認為這不是長期觀點的根本變化。就您的觀點而言,這聽起來可能比您預期的要早,但絕對是我們一直在推動的方向。我想我們想看看定價變化的地方,並通過我們的積壓工作。

  • The one dynamic that we continue to work through is the incredibly strong demand we're facing that in any given period, if demand outpaces, that creates this reported margin drag because of the timing of sales and marketing expenses versus installed volume. So that may have some variability in there. But we're confident in the $10,000 number. I feel like the majority here is moving through these pricing and product mix changes.

    我們繼續努力解決的一個動態是,在任何特定時期,我們都面臨著令人難以置信的強勁需求,如果需求超過預期,由於銷售和營銷費用與安裝量的時間安排,這會造成報告的利潤率拖累。所以這可能會有一些變化。但我們對 10,000 美元的數字充滿信心。我覺得這裡的大多數人都在經歷這些定價和產品組合的變化。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • All right. That's great. I appreciate that. And then just the second question I had, and I'll pass it on was around some of the comments you just made, Tom, about the strong sales pipeline kind of not being able to keep up the healthy backlog. So high-quality problem to have. But can you kind of elaborate a bit more on sort of labor or if you're seeing any challenges there on the EPC side, if you're having to adopt any new strategies or thinking about that differently? Just kind of how you're addressing the high level of backlog and trying to keep up here as you move through the year?

    好的。那太棒了。我很感激。然後我提出的第二個問題是關於你剛剛發表的一些評論,湯姆,關於強大的銷售渠道無法保持健康的積壓。如此高質量的問題。但是,您能否詳細說明一下勞動力方面的問題,或者您是否在 EPC 方面看到了任何挑戰,您是否必須採用任何新策略或以不同的方式思考?只是您如何解決高水平的積壓問題並在一年中努力跟上進度?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Actually, Brian, it's Mary. I can answer that one. Yes, so as I hit -- basically, a lot of what you're seeing that Tom hit that's flowing through subscriber value is attached to not just the pricing but like are really going at the go-to-market strategy, taking decisive action in some markets, where we weren't hitting the return thresholds we wanted to. And at the same time, some streamlining and improvement and putting into place a team and an approach that can help us make significant progress on the backlog in the next couple of months.

    是的。實際上,布賴恩,是瑪麗。我可以回答那個。是的,所以正如我所說的那樣——基本上,你所看到的湯姆命中的很多通過訂閱者價值流動的東西不僅與定價有關,而且與真正的進入市場戰略有關,採取果斷的行動在某些市場,我們沒有達到我們想要的回報門檻。同時,一些精簡和改進,並建立了一個團隊和一種方法,可以幫助我們在接下來的幾個月裡在積壓工作上取得重大進展。

  • So what we have is we're in a strong position. From a labor perspective, we're growing fast. We're hiring people. We're finding we're a very attractive employer. We're really hiring high-quality installation crews. And at the same time, we also, as I was talking about, are leveraging this amazing position we're in, in the market with the kind of partners we have, channel partners we have, where some also want to be built partners. So we're working very decisively with them in terms of having a real approach to make sure that we're closing a lot of that backlog in the coming months.

    所以我們所擁有的是我們處於強勢地位。從勞動力的角度來看,我們正在快速增長。我們正在招聘人員。我們發現我們是一個非常有吸引力的雇主。我們確實在招聘高素質的安裝人員。同時,正如我所說,我們也在利用我們所處的這個驚人的位置,在市場上擁有我們擁有的合作夥伴,我們擁有的渠道合作夥伴,其中一些人也希望成為合作夥伴。因此,我們正在與他們進行非常果斷的合作,以確保我們在未來幾個月內關閉大量積壓的工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Bank of America.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • Congrats to all those with the new roles here. Just to come back to the core question here on the 10-K. Can you talk about like the puts and takes, if you will, right? I mean obviously, cost, especially as you roll in off your inventory could be a detriment there. But can you talk about the extent of that price increase being a positive sort of like a grossing before you netted out to that $10,000 versus where you're starting at today? And just to go back to the prior point, the sustainability and trajectory from here, any nuance we should be considering beyond 3Q here as you roll it forward?

    恭喜所有在這裡擔任新角色的人。回到 10-K 的核心問題。如果你願意的話,你能談談看跌期權嗎?我的意思很明顯,成本,尤其是當你從庫存中滾下來時,可能會在那裡造成損害。但是你能談談在你淨賺到 10,000 美元之前,與你今天開始的價格相比,價格上漲的程度是一種積極的程度嗎?回到前一點,從這裡開始的可持續性和軌跡,我們應該在第三季度之後考慮任何細微差別,因為你向前推進?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Yes. So the price increases certainly are additive. Obviously, there have been modest material cost increases. As Ed noted, we presented net subscriber value at a 5% basis, have had moments in time where we've been well below that on capital costs. We're now in that range. We're still going to hold that at 5%. And so the price increases are moves that more than offset material cost increases for us. The additional moves around higher battery attach rate and some of the changes that Mary noted that we've made around product and pricing policy that will drive more profitable projects through.

    是的。所以價格上漲肯定是累加的。顯然,材料成本略有增加。正如 Ed 所指出的,我們以 5% 的基礎呈現淨訂戶價值,曾經有過遠低於資本成本的時刻。我們現在在那個範圍內。我們仍將保持在 5%。因此,價格上漲對我們來說不僅抵消了材料成本的上漲。圍繞提高電池附加率的額外舉措以及 Mary 指出的一些改變,我們圍繞產品和定價政策做出了一些改變,這些改變將推動更有利可圖的項目通過。

  • The one area, again, we're obviously confident enough to put out the $10,000 number here for Q3. The item that we've noted now for several quarters has been this backlog growth dynamic. I think with the things Mary just noted in the last question, we're really confident in our ability to ramp. It is worth noting we are at massive scale and still growing installation volume quite considerably, 27% year-over-year for the quarter, continuing to believe that we're going to increase at very fast rates. It would appear to be share gaining rates relative to some of the external forecasts.

    再一次,我們顯然有足夠的信心在第三季度在這裡公佈 10,000 美元的數字。我們現在已經註意到幾個季度的項目是這種積壓增長動態。我認為瑪麗剛剛在上一個問題中提到的事情,我們對我們的爬坡能力非常有信心。值得注意的是,我們規模龐大,安裝量仍在大幅增長,本季度同比增長 27%,繼續相信我們將以非常快的速度增長。相對於一些外部預測,這似乎是股票上漲率。

  • And we're doing that at scale. So we're able to add a lot of capacity, both through ourselves and through partners. There's some chance, I guess, in there that demand continues to rip. And that, again, creates a drag on reported values. But with where we are right now and what we see, we feel confident in our ability to execute and get to this level.

    我們正在大規模地這樣做。因此,我們能夠通過我們自己和合作夥伴增加很多容量。我想,有一些機會在那裡需求繼續撕裂。這再次對報告值造成拖累。但就我們現在所處的位置和所見所聞而言,我們對自己的執行能力和達到這個水平充滿信心。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • And Julien, maybe just to add to that, it's our expectation that the improvements that we're describing are structural and not like some temporary high watermark for Q3.

    朱利安,也許只是補充一點,我們期望我們所描述的改進是結構性的,而不是像第三季度的一些臨時高水位線。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • Right. No, indeed, I'm almost curious to push again. And the second question here on just how far you can go with it, not if it's sustainable, really. But if I can actually -- I mean, Professor Ed, if I can address you as such. Do you want to talk a little bit more -- can you talk a little bit about this. I hear you on the customer metric. But let's talk about levered value creation quickly and how we might think about a metric there, especially against this notion of lower advance rates. How do you think about that metric evolving very specifically here against your $10,000 target? And how is your financing strategy evolving more specifically? I know you laid it out in part here. I just want to make sure we've got that clear cut.

    正確的。不,確實,我幾乎想再次推動。這裡的第二個問題是關於你能走多遠,而不是它是否可持續,真的。但如果我真的可以——我的意思是,Ed 教授,如果我可以這樣稱呼你。你想多談一點嗎——你能談談這個嗎?我在客戶指標上聽到了你的聲音。但是,讓我們快速討論一下槓桿價值創造,以及我們如何考慮那裡的指標,特別是針對這種較低的預付率概念。您如何看待該指標在此處針對您的 10,000 美元目標非常具體地演變?您的融資策略如何更具體地發展?我知道你在這裡列出了一部分。我只是想確保我們有明確的界限。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So maybe just to recap a few of the things we described on the call first. The transaction that we're in the process of wrapping up right now will have an experienced weighted average cost of capital of about 4.5%. It is benefiting from interest rate swaps. Without those swaps, we think it would have been about 5.5%.

    當然。所以也許只是回顧一下我們首先在電話會議上描述的一些事情。我們目前正在完成的交易的加權平均資本成本約為 4.5%。它受益於利率互換。如果沒有這些掉期,我們認為應該是 5.5% 左右。

  • In the presentation, we make the point that subscriber value at 5.25% to 5.75% discount rate as compared to 5% would be worth about $750 to $2,100 less. So we see the improvements in net subscriber value that we're describing as outpacing the increases in interest rates. Obviously, that's a moving target, which we're watching carefully, including today, but one that we are staying on top of. We see, obviously, as we mentioned, significant and escalating increases in utility cost prices, which is fundamentally our most significant competition.

    在演示文稿中,我們指出,與 5% 相比,5.25% 至 5.75% 折扣率的訂戶價值將減少約 750 至 2,100 美元。因此,我們看到淨訂戶價值的增長超過了利率的增長。顯然,這是一個移動的目標,我們正在仔細觀察,包括今天,但我們一直在關注它。正如我們所提到的,我們顯然看到公用事業成本價格顯著且不斷升級,這從根本上說是我們最重要的競爭。

  • In terms of the strategy for how we finance the assets, I don't know that we're looking at any significant differences. One dynamic worth mentioning is that the spreads that the cost of our capital that is over treasuries right now appears to be lower in the bank market than in the ABS market. My suspicion for the reason of that is there have been capital withdrawals from long-term fixed income based on the rapid increases in interest rates. And obviously, those rapid increases in interest rates haven't caused bank deposit withdrawals.

    就我們如何為資產融資的策略而言,我不知道我們正在考慮任何重大差異。值得一提的一個動態是,目前我們的資金成本高於國債的利差在銀行市場似乎低於 ABS 市場。我對此的懷疑是,由於利率的快速上升,長期固定收益的資本撤出。顯然,利率的快速上升並沒有導致銀行存款提取。

  • So there's still significant excess liquidity in bank deposits. And so we haven't seen spreads in that market move. So it's possible in the future, you'll see us doing more work in the commercial bank markets if the current relative spread dynamics between those markets continues to hold.

    因此,銀行存款仍存在大量流動性過剩。因此,我們還沒有看到市場波動中的價差。因此,如果這些市場之間當前的相對價差動態繼續保持下去,那麼在未來,你會看到我們在商業銀行市場上做更多的工作。

  • Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

    Julien Patrick Dumoulin-Smith - Director and Head of the US Power, Utilities & Alternative Energy Equity Research

  • All right. Fair enough. I'm curious to see what happens. Cheers guys.

    好的。很公平。我很好奇會發生什麼。乾杯,伙計們。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Kashy Harrison from Piper Sandler.

    下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Kashy Harrison。

  • Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

    Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

  • So just first one for me. You've obviously had a very strong order growth here in Q1 and 39%, which is solid. The market right now is very focused on leading-edge demand trends these days just given just the massive amount of uncertainty globally. And so I was wondering if you could maybe just give us a sense on how order growth in April is tracking. Are you still seeing that 39% year-over-year continue? Or are you seeing any sort of deceleration in April?

    所以對我來說只是第一個。顯然,您在第一季度的訂單增長非常強勁,增長了 39%,這很穩定。鑑於全球存在大量不確定性,如今的市場非常關注前沿需求趨勢。所以我想知道你是否可以讓我們了解一下 4 月份的訂單增長情況。您是否仍然看到 39% 的同比增長仍在繼續?或者你在四月看到任何減速?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean, basically, again, as I hit, we feel like we're really at an incredible tipping point that's happening from a consumer perspective. So overall, we see the trends of adoption continuing. So that's what informed everything that we've reported today, informed our raise in guidance on the year to now 25% or higher. So yes, we're feeling like there is really sustainable demand.

    是的。我的意思是,基本上,再次,當我擊中時,我們覺得我們真的處於一個令人難以置信的轉折點,從消費者的角度來看正在發生。總的來說,我們看到採用的趨勢仍在繼續。這就是我們今天報告的所有內容的信息,也就是我們將今年的指導提高到現在 25% 或更高的信息。所以是的,我們感覺確實存在可持續的需求。

  • Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

    Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And my follow-up, Ed, you highlighted in your prepared remarks that you're currently experiencing a tailwind in the tax equity market due to the AD/CVD issue. Can you give us an update on where you see the cash cost of tax equity today, and maybe talk about how that's evolved just given the fluctuation in the interest rate market?

    好的。我的後續行動,Ed,你在準備好的評論中強調,由於 AD/CVD 問題,你目前在稅收股票市場上遇到了順風。您能否向我們介紹一下您今天看到的稅收權益現金成本的最新情況,或者談談考慮到利率市場的波動,這是如何演變的?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So good question. So I should mention -- so first, when I discussed the delays in the utility scale segment, I think it's much more profound than the Commerce Department investigation. My suspicion is that the changes in capital costs and equipment prices would probably drive underwater 1/3 of utility-scale projects even if the Commerce Department investigation was resolved with no further tariffs.

    當然。這麼好的問題。所以我應該提到——首先,當我討論公用事業規模領域的延誤時,我認為這比商務部的調查要深刻得多。我的懷疑是,即使商務部的調查在沒有進一步關稅的情況下得到解決,資本成本和設備價格的變化也可能會推動 1/3 的公用事業規模項目在水下進行。

  • So I think that generally speaking, among capital providers who are focused on renewable projects, there's just a lot of slippage. And some people are looking for additional 2022 product. And the tax equity market is even more of a calendar year market than most markets so you're seeing there.

    所以我認為,一般來說,在專注於可再生項目的資本提供者中,有很多滑點。有些人正在尋找額外的 2022 產品。與大多數市場相比,稅收股票市場更像是一個日曆年市場,所以你看到了那裡。

  • That said, the cash cost of tax equity continues to be up and down on the 13 years I've been doing this, really very, very close to 2% on a pretax basis, like that's really about what it costs. Usually, when you see excess supply flush to the market, it's usually -- whether it's just bigger funds or more flexible terms on certain other things, but we don't typically see very significant variation in the actual like pretax IRR in this transaction.

    也就是說,稅收權益的現金成本在我從事這項工作的 13 年裡一直在上下波動,在稅前基礎上非常非常接近 2%,就像它的成本一樣。通常,當您看到市場供應過剩時,通常是——無論是更大的基金還是在某些其他事情上更靈活的條款,但我們通常不會看到該交易中的實際稅前內部收益率有非常顯著的變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Maheep Mandloi from Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Associate

    Maheep Mandloi - Associate

  • Congratulations on the quarter and the guidance increase. Maybe just one question from me on the price increases or potentially higher value kind of like thing for the customers going forward. Are you just seeing price increases because of higher electric builds from the utilities? Or is that something you're kind of expecting later this year or next as we -- the utilities get into their rate-based approval side?

    祝賀本季度和指導增加。也許我只是問了一個關於價格上漲或潛在客戶未來價值更高的問題。您是否只是因為公用事業的電力建設增加而看到價格上漲?或者這是你在今年晚些時候或明年我們所期待的 - 公用事業公司進入他們基於費率的批准方面?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So this is Ed. So as I mentioned, obviously, the 3 major costs of utilities are all increasing: fuel, labor and capital. These are reflected in different speeds in retail rates. Capital, certainly in rate cases. Fuel, sometime most quickly. Labor, in the middle. And what we're describing is the clear CPI data for national electric energy is up 11%. And to your point, a lot of those cost dynamics haven't yet been approved or measured or even filed for. So that's what gives me the confidence that the 11%, which we've seen so far, is only the tip of the iceberg.

    當然。這就是埃德。正如我所提到的,很明顯,公用事業的三大成本都在增加:燃料、勞動力和資本。這些反映在零售率的不同速度上。資本,當然在利率情況下。燃料,有時最快。勞動,在中間。而我們所描述的是,全國電能的明確CPI數據上漲了11%。就您而言,許多成本動態尚未獲得批准或衡量,甚至尚未申請。所以這讓我有信心,我們迄今為止看到的 11% 只是冰山一角。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes. And just to pile on to that, Ed. From my perspective in the utility business, one of the things I saw many years ago, and I've only seen it accelerate is we have to remember that with all of the investment you're seeing, so all of the investment in transmission, distribution, all of that is creating long-term systemic rate pressure. So really on top of the sort of shorter term items that Ed's hit that are absolutely going to cause pressure, you also just have systemically these significant drivers of rate increase pressures.

    是的。只是為了繼續這一點,埃德。從我在公用事業業務的角度來看,我多年前看到的一件事,而且我只看到它在加速發展,那就是我們必須記住,在你所看到的所有投資中,所有對傳輸的投資,分佈,所有這些都造成了長期的系統性利率壓力。因此,除了 Ed 所擊中的絕對會造成壓力的短期項目之外,您還只是系統地擁有這些加息壓力的重要驅動因素。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Well, I think on a recent call, I described the bonanza utility capital expenditures, which are running multiples ahead of depreciation, which programmatically causes increased rate base and rates.

    好吧,我認為在最近的一次電話會議上,我描述了富礦公用事業資本支出,它在折舊之前運行倍數,這以編程方式導致利率基數和利率增加。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Associate

    Maheep Mandloi - Associate

  • Got it. Thanks for the color. And just last one from me and I'll jump back in the queue is around your partnership with Ford. And you talked about more than 200,000 of reservations. But like could you just talk about like how should we think about upside or EBITDA contribution from that segment for this year or going forward?

    知道了。謝謝你的顏色。就我的最後一個,我會跳回隊列是圍繞你與福特的合作關係。你談到了超過 200,000 的預訂。但是,您能否談談我們應該如何考慮今年或未來該細分市場的上行或 EBITDA 貢獻?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Yes. So we're relatively early in the ramp, as Mary noted. Production and the launch just began. We're reaching out to those early customers. You can think about a couple of different components of the business. There's our EV charger sale and installation business. That extends to include the home integration system with the bidirectional inverter, enabling whole home backup from the vehicle.

    是的。因此,正如瑪麗所說,我們處於相對較早的階段。生產和發布才剛剛開始。我們正在接觸這些早期客戶。您可以考慮業務的幾個不同組成部分。還有我們的電動汽車充電器銷售和安裝業務。這延伸到包括帶有雙向逆變器的家庭集成系統,從而實現車輛的整個家庭備份。

  • That portion of the business on its own, you're going to go as a solid hardware and services distribution business, where we're selling hardware at reasonable margins and providing our installation services. And then I think the -- that will ramp as vehicle production ramps and will be a nice business in its own, right?

    這部分業務就其本身而言,您將成為一家可靠的硬件和服務分銷業務,我們以合理的利潤銷售硬件並提供我們的安裝服務。然後我認為——隨著汽車產量的增加,這將是一個很好的業務,對吧?

  • I think the larger unlock here is when those offerings then get coupled with a solar install, where I think those customers are more likely to have a larger system potentially a home battery. It might have lower customer acquisition cost because of the efficiency of coming through the Ford channel. And that will have a much more meaningful impact on subscriber values. But given the shape of the ramp in vehicle deliveries, you can expect more of that to probably materialize in 2023 and beyond, although there's definitely positive benefits this year.

    我認為這裡更大的解鎖是當這些產品與太陽能安裝相結合時,我認為這些客戶更有可能擁有更大的系統,可能是家用電池。由於通過福特渠道的效率,它可能具有較低的客戶獲取成本。這將對訂戶價值產生更有意義的影響。但考慮到車輛交付量的增長趨勢,您可以預計到 2023 年及以後可能會實現更多,儘管今年肯定會帶來積極的好處。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Right. And just to sort of underscore the customer unlock, if you're a Ford customer wanting the bidirectional feature, for example, you can pay thousands of dollars to get a bidirectional charger installed, right? Or you can get solar installed with at all, in which case now it has a negative cost rate. You're now saving money from the solar system and you've got the home backup. So it's like a very compelling customer value proposition.

    正確的。只是為了強調客戶解鎖,例如,如果您是福特客戶想要雙向功能,您可以支付數千美元來安裝雙向充電器,對嗎?或者你可以安裝太陽能,在這種情況下,現在它的成本率是負數。您現在正在從太陽系中省錢,並且您已經獲得了家庭備用。所以這就像一個非常引人注目的客戶價值主張。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Associate

    Maheep Mandloi - Associate

  • And look like they have to buy the backup generator from you -- the backup charger from you, right?

    看起來他們必須從你那裡購買備用發電機——從你那裡購買備用充電器,對吧?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Yes. We're their insulation provider of choice and co-developed the home integration system.

    是的。我們是他們選擇的絕緣供應商,並共同開發了家庭集成系統。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Joseph Osha from Guggenheim Partners.

    下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Joseph Osha。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • Professor Ed, you're now stuck with that nickname for all time, by the way, just so you know that. I think you commented during your prepared comments a little bit about hedging out cost of capital exposure as it relates to your pricing. Can you help me understand that a little more? I'm thinking about the backlog and how that backlog continues to grow, how you manage to hedge out your cost of capital exposure? And then I have another question.

    埃德教授,順便說一句,你現在一直被這個綽號所困擾,只是為了讓你知道。我認為您在準備好的評論中評論了一些關於對沖與您的定價相關的資本風險成本的評論。你能幫我多理解一點嗎?我正在考慮積壓以及積壓如何繼續增長,您如何設法對沖資本風險成本?然後我有另一個問題。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Sure. So typically, how that works, Joe, is that as we install a system, we're locking in the interest rate prevailing at the time of installation. And installation could occur 9 or 12 months before term out. So in the transaction that we just completed, obviously, you see the treasury rate embedded in the coupon at the time that we issued the security. But really economically, we locked in the treasury rate at the time of installation.

    當然。因此,Joe,通常情況下,它的工作原理是,當我們安裝系統時,我們會鎖定安裝時的現行利率。安裝可能在到期前 9 或 12 個月進行。因此,在我們剛剛完成的交易中,很明顯,您會看到我們發行證券時嵌入在優惠券中的國庫券。但實際上,我們在安裝時鎖定了國庫利率。

  • So all the assets that we have developed and that are sitting in our warehouse facilities are hedged with the interest rates that were in effect at the time those projects were installed. So certainly, as Tom pointed out, there are systems that we sold late last year that haven't yet been constructed that we're now constructing. And the proceeds we'll receive on those systems are going to be less than we forecast.

    因此,我們開發的所有資產以及位於我們倉庫設施中的所有資產都與安裝這些項目時有效的利率進行了對沖。因此,正如 Tom 指出的那樣,我們在去年年底出售的一些系統當然尚未構建,而我們現在正在構建這些系統。我們將在這些系統上獲得的收益將低於我們的預期。

  • But the systems that were installed prior to the large run-up in rates, we were able to lock in the rates on those systems. And obviously, the more recent systems which are being sold at higher rates are insulated from capital cost in that regard. So we do have this sort of like middle zone that we need to work through. But other than that, I feel like we're pretty well matched.

    但是,在費率大幅上升之前安裝的系統,我們能夠鎖定這些系統上的費率。顯然,在這方面,以更高價格出售的較新的系統與資本成本是絕緣的。所以我們確實有這種需要解決的中間區域。但除此之外,我覺得我們很般配。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • But again, that -- just to amplify on the question, it does sound like you have the way this works for now still some sort of open cost of capital exposure between the time when you sell the system and when you install it. Is that what you're saying?

    但是,再一次,只是為了放大這個問題,聽起來你現在確實有這種工作方式,但在你出售系統和安裝它的時間之間仍然存在某種公開的資本風險成本。這就是你說的嗎?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Correct.

    正確的。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • Okay. And is there any way to mitigate that? Or is that just kind of it is what it is?

    好的。有什麼辦法可以減輕這種情況嗎?或者這就是它的本來面目?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • I mean you could buy options to mitigate it and, therefore, likely pay the expected value price of it. So if you look at a strong position, you thought interest rates were going to rise faster than everyone who trades interest securities like you could do that. But I think that our general approach instead is just to drive the cycle times down. That is a better customer experience. It's a more natural process for us. And that's the way we've been handling it.

    我的意思是你可以購買期權來減輕它,因此可能會支付它的預期價值價格。因此,如果您看到強勢頭寸,您會認為利率上升的速度會比所有像您這樣交易利息證券的人都快。但我認為我們的一般方法只是縮短週期時間。那是更好的客戶體驗。這對我們來說是一個更自然的過程。這就是我們一直在處理它的方式。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Got it. And then second, much more simple question, given how all of this is washing through your business model, how do you feel not just this year, but on a sort of a go-forward basis about how cash generation for the business looks are relative to growth.

    好的。偉大的。知道了。然後是第二個更簡單的問題,考慮到所有這一切是如何通過你的商業模式洗刷的,你感覺如何不僅是今年,而且在某種向前發展的基礎上,企業的現金生成看起來是相對的到成長。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • I think over the long term, we continue to sell a product that is an excellently high demand, right? It is lower and more certain energy cost. It is better reliability. It is environmentally clean. And the tailwind there is significant, like certainly in the 13, 15 years we've been doing this, I've never seen a demand environment like this. And so certainly, that's helpful if you're experiencing increased costs, whether that's operational or capital. We're doing our best.

    我認為從長遠來看,我們會繼續銷售需求量非常大的產品,對吧?它是更低和更確定的能源成本。這是更好的可靠性。它是環保清潔的。那裡的順風很大,就像在我們這樣做的 13、15 年裡,我從未見過這樣的需求環境。當然,如果您遇到成本增加(無論是運營成本還是資本成本),這將很有幫助。我們正在盡力而為。

  • And I think meeting with some success, getting efficiency up and cost down and all the things that you want to do in any business anyway but also have the ability to pass through pricing because our competitor, the electric utility, turns out also capital cost is an input in their business. And so I have still very good -- I'm still very optimistic about the long-term cash flow capabilities of the business for that reason, right? It's not like we're the only energy company that capital cost is an input to. So capital costs may go up. That can pressure us, but it pressures everybody up. So everyone else prices up, we price up. And lo and behold, everyone is still making money.

    而且我認為會取得一些成功,提高效率並降低成本以及您在任何業務中想要做的所有事情,但也有能力通過定價,因為我們的競爭對手,電力公司,資本成本也是對他們的業務的投入。所以我仍然非常好——出於這個原因,我仍然對企業的長期現金流能力非常樂觀,對吧?我們並不是唯一一家需要投入資本成本的能源公司。因此,資本成本可能會上升。這會給我們帶來壓力,但也會給每個人帶來壓力。所以別人漲價,我們漲價。你瞧,每個人都還在賺錢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Mark Strouse from JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mark Strouse。

  • Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

    Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

  • I just want to go back to the anti-circ case. You mentioned the inventory you have. You mentioned the existing agreements and the potential future agreements that you have with kind of nontariff supplies. Can you just kind of directly address how -- does that give you enough visibility to meet this greater than 25% growth, your target for the year?

    我只想回到反圈案。你提到了你的庫存。您提到了與非關稅供應品達成的現有協議和潛在的未來協議。您能否直接說明如何——這是否為您提供了足夠的可見性來實現超過 25% 的增長,這是您今年的目標?

  • And then kind of the hypothetical follow-up to that is in the event that supply does become limited, I mean what would be the strategy? Do you -- buying for China with a known tariff. Do you keep buying from Southeast Asia with kind of an unknown tariff? What would be the hypothetical there?

    然後假設的後續行動是如果供應確實變得有限,我的意思是策略是什麼?你 - 以已知關稅為中國購買。您是否繼續以未知的關稅從東南亞購買?那裡的假設是什麼?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • You start, Tom.

    你開始吧,湯姆。

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • So on the general -- or the first question as it relates to inventory levels and outlook, we feel very well positioned. As you can see on the balance sheet, we increased the absolute dollar of inventory that we were carrying quarter-over-quarter again, now north of $550 million. Triple-digit days of supply on the vast majority of the things we need and continue to have strong and steady flow of products even as we're ramping our installation volume here over the quarter and throughout this quarter. So I think the general view is we felt really confident moving up to the 25%-plus year-over-year growth and should be able to meet that even as things moderate. You've got at least a quarter that's fully covered here.

    因此,在一般情況下——或者與庫存水平和前景有關的第一個問題上,我們感覺自己處於有利地位。正如您在資產負債表上所見,我們再次環比增加了我們持有的絕對庫存美元,現在超過了 5.5 億美元。我們需要的絕大多數東西的供應天數達到三位數,並且即使我們在本季度和整個季度都在增加我們的安裝量,我們也會繼續擁有強大而穩定的產品流量。因此,我認為總體觀點是,我們對實現 25% 以上的同比增長感到非常有信心,即使情況溫和,也應該能夠實現這一目標。你至少有四分之一在這裡被完全覆蓋。

  • And then as we look at the general supply picture, as Ed noted, we're continuing to look at new sources of supply from different portions of the world, looking at other options here to get access to product, to the extent there's a large contraction in the available supply in the market, that obviously creates some pressure on terms that may be available for those products. But one where I think, thus far, we feel reasonably well protected.

    然後,正如 Ed 所指出的,當我們查看總體供應情況時,我們將繼續尋找來自世界不同地區的新供應來源,在這裡尋找其他選擇來獲得產品,在某種程度上存在大量市場上可用供應的收縮,顯然對這些產品的可用條款造成了一些壓力。但我認為,到目前為止,我們覺得受到了相當好的保護。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Yes. I had mentioned like there are avenues to take -- to get the panels that are not from effective manufacturers. Those could be international manufacturers, not in Southeast Asia. It could be American manufacturers. And to your point, Commerce just very recently made clear they wouldn't see tariffs from Southeast Asia exceeding tariffs from China.

    是的。我曾提到有一些途徑可以採取 - 獲得不是來自有效製造商的面板。這些可能是國際製造商,而不是東南亞。可能是美國製造商。就你的觀點而言,商務部最近明確表示,他們不會看到來自東南亞的關稅超過來自中國的關稅。

  • So if you did end up with tariffs, Chinese manufacturer is cheaper, so you'd probably end up buying from China as compared to Southeast Asia. But there's no reason to do that preemptively. And I think just stepping back, like everyone in government has made really clear how frustrated they are by this petitioner and by this petition. And the Commerce department has used language like, "Our hands are tied in terms of opening the investigation."

    因此,如果您最終徵收關稅,中國製造商會更便宜,因此與東南亞相比,您最終可能會從中國購買。但沒有理由先發製人。而且我認為只是退後一步,就像政府中的每個人都已經清楚地表明他們對這位請願者和這份請願書感到多麼沮喪。商務部使用了諸如“我們在展開調查方面束手無策”之類的措辭。

  • I think the chance of a negative investigation here -- a negative result is very, very low. But we are very confident we can meet demand from the module side kind of irrespective of what direction it goes. There'll be a question of around the edges, what's the module cost? Like what are the days payable on it? But we'll find that we're very comfortable that we'll meet our customer interest.

    我認為在這裡進行負面調查的可能性 - 負面結果非常非常低。但我們非常有信心,我們可以滿足模塊方面的需求,無論它朝哪個方向發展。會有一個問題,模塊成本是多少?比如它的應付天數是多少?但我們會發現我們很樂意滿足客戶的興趣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Andrew Percoco from Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Andrew Percoco。

  • Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Associate

    Andrew Salvatore Percoco - Associate

  • So just one quick one for me. We talk a lot about or heard a lot today about utility price increases across the U.S. Has that opened up any new markets for you guys that you don't currently operate in today? And if so, what would be the potential go-to-market strategy there?

    所以對我來說只是一個快速的。我們今天談論或聽到了很多關於美國公用事業價格上漲的話題。這是否為你們開闢了任何新的市場,而你們目前沒有在其中開展業務?如果是這樣,那裡潛在的上市策略是什麼?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • I mean we're always monitoring what is going on across the country for sure and evaluating strategic moves as it relates to new territories. As you know, now we're operating in 22 states and Puerto Rico and Hawaii. And we're feeling very comfortable in the markets that we're in. But we're always continuing to evaluate that, to your point. So yes, I do foresee that in the years to come, there are going to be other markets that, again, might not look attractive today but will quickly be looking attractive because of utility rate cost pressures.

    我的意思是,我們一直在監控全國各地正在發生的事情,並評估與新領土相關的戰略舉措。如您所知,現在我們在 22 個州以及波多黎各和夏威夷開展業務。而且我們對我們所處的市場感到非常自在。但我們一直在繼續評估這一點,就你的觀點而言。所以,是的,我確實預見到,在未來的幾年裡,將會有其他市場,同樣,今天看起來可能並不有吸引力,但由於公用事業費率成本壓力,它們很快就會變得有吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Philip Shen from ROTH Capital.

    下一個問題來自 ROTH Capital 的 Philip Shen。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I think you just filed a mixed shelf along with the results today. And in your Q, it looks like maybe you have $107 million undrawn. Can you walk us through your liquidity situation? And what is your view on tapping into the equity markets near term?

    我想你今天剛把結果和結果一起提交了一個混合的架子。在你的 Q 中,看起來你可能有 1.07 億美元未提取。你能告訴我們你的流動性情況嗎?您對近期進入股市有何看法?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • That's simply a corporate hygiene move that we periodically do. And as I mentioned, we have ample liquidity. And we just increased the size of our company's revolver, which isn't fully drawn. So we're -- we feel very comfortable in our current position.

    這只是我們定期進行的企業衛生舉措。正如我所提到的,我們有充足的流動性。我們只是增加了我們公司的左輪手槍的尺寸,它還沒有完全繪製出來。所以我們 - 我們在目前的位置上感覺很舒服。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Thanks, Ed. And then as it relates, Mary, to your comment that you collapsed several letters of management structures, can you talk about how many people left and departed the organization? And then how many more do you expect as you right-size? Are the layoffs over? And what do you expect to have there?

    謝謝,埃德。然後,瑪麗,關於你的評論,你折疊了幾封管理結構的信件,你能談談有多少人離開並離開了組織嗎?然後你還期望多少合適的尺寸?裁員結束了嗎?你期望那裡有什麼?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • So I mean, overall, the company is we're growing fast. And so overall, from like an overall headcount perspective, we are in a growth mode. That's the position we're in. But yes, obviously, right, we did really collapse layers and look at, again, making sure it's a really streamlined, flat as possible, close to the customer organization. And we're hiring -- we're bringing in a lot of new employees. In terms of getting into specifics -- specific numbers, no, that's not really -- I don't think it's a place I want to go. But I will tell you, overall, we are a growing organization. And again, we're hiring fast to keep up with the demand.

    所以我的意思是,總的來說,公司正在快速發展。因此,總體而言,從整體員工人數的角度來看,我們處於增長模式。這就是我們所處的位置。但是,是的,顯然,對,我們確實確實折疊了層並再次查看,確保它是一個真正流線型、盡可能平坦、接近客戶組織的組織。我們正在招聘——我們正在引進很多新員工。在進入細節方面——具體數字,不,那不是真的——我不認為這是我想去的地方。但我會告訴你,總的來說,我們是一個成長中的組織。再一次,我們正在快速招聘以滿足需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Ameet Thakkar from BMO Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ameet Thakkar。

  • Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Analyst

    Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Analyst

  • You guys have talked a lot about potential headwinds from higher interest rates or financing costs. But I was just wondering on kind of the other side, are you guys seeing a pickup in customers kind of opting for kind of third-party ownership models versus loans? And it seemed like loans have been a little bit more popular in the last year. And I was just wondering if you're getting a bit of a tailwind from that.

    你們談了很多關於更高利率或融資成本的潛在不利因素。但我只是想知道另一方面,你們是否看到客戶選擇第三方所有權模式而不是貸款?似乎貸款在去年更受歡迎了。我只是想知道你是否從中得到了一點順風。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Yes. This is Ed. It's an interesting dynamic. Mostly speaking, it's really the sales reps that drive interest in loans versus leases, where sales reps who are looking for a simple sale with a better feature set but kind of willing to accept the controls that we put on something because we care about production and things like that prefer to sell a lease. And those that prefer the later control set tend to sell loans.

    是的。這是埃德。這是一個有趣的動態。大多數情況下,實際上是銷售代表推動了對貸款而不是租賃的興趣,其中銷售代表正在尋找具有更好功能集的簡單銷售,但願意接受我們對某些東西進行的控制,因為我們關心生產和諸如此類的事情更喜歡出售租賃。而那些更喜歡後期控制集的人傾向於出售貸款。

  • There's an interesting dynamic in the market right now, which is that the capital cost for solar loans have gone up almost 2.5%. And for the most part, we haven't seen any change in solar loan pricing. Like I doubt actually the United States Treasury could make money buying solar loans from us at the moment. So it will be interesting to see how the dynamics play out in that market. But certainly, right now, it's an attractive customer value proposition.

    目前市場上有一個有趣的動態,即太陽能貸款的資本成本上漲了近 2.5%。在大多數情況下,我們沒有看到太陽能貸款定價有任何變化。就像我懷疑美國財政部目前是否可以通過購買我們的太陽能貸款來賺錢。因此,看看該市場的動態如何發揮作用將會很有趣。但可以肯定的是,現在,這是一個有吸引力的客戶價值主張。

  • Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Analyst

    Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Analyst

  • Great. And just one more real quick one. The battery growth of 50%, I mean, that's a pretty good off of a low base, I guess. Is some of that driven by people coming back and retrofitting their systems? Or is this all kind of just more availability and higher attach rates?

    偉大的。還有一個真正快速的。 50% 的電池增長,我的意思是,我猜這是一個相當不錯的低基數。其中一些是由人們回來並改造他們的系統驅動的嗎?或者這只是更多的可用性和更高的附加率?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • There is a little bit of that. But again, I wouldn't say it's on a small base. Just to remind you, we have 37,000 residential batteries deployed, I think, one of the highest numbers in the country. So yes, we're seeing just greater interest in the context of providing a lot more to customers than just the benefits of going solar. So it is -- we're rapidly moving into this customer obsessed place of providing customers a lot more as they think about improving their lives and their homes and what they drive. So yes, we continue to see that attach rate go up in the future.

    有一點點。但同樣,我不會說它的基礎很小。提醒您一下,我認為,我們部署了 37,000 個住宅電池,這是該國數量最多的電池之一。所以,是的,我們看到了為客戶提供更多的利益,而不僅僅是使用太陽能的好處。所以它是 - 我們正在迅速進入這個客戶痴迷的地方,為客戶提供更多,因為他們考慮改善他們的生活和他們的家園以及他們駕駛的東西。所以是的,我們繼續看到未來的附加率上升。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from David Peters from Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 David Peters。

  • David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

    David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

  • The question I had is just on the mix of subscribers versus purchase customers. This quarter, it dipped even a little lower than Q4, which I understand has bit of a seasonal component to it being at the end of the year. But just going forward, should we expect this level to stay in the low to mid-70s? Or would you expect that to ramp back up?

    我的問題只是訂閱者與購買客戶的組合。本季度,它甚至比第四季度還要低一點,據我所知,它在年底時有一點季節性因素。但只是向前看,我們是否應該期望這個水平保持在 70 年代中期?或者你會期望這會增加嗎?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - Consultant

  • Yes. No. Ed noted some of the short-term dynamics that are in play there. But what we saw in Q4 and Q1 here simply the mix of what was coming out of our backlog. We've seen with some of the pricing and product changes that we've made of late seen up-funnel sales mix begin to move back more in the direction of TPO or third-party owned. And so I think we'll come off the current levels. And the points that Ed mentioned there will impact maybe a little bit how long loan remains as attractive as it is at the moment. But we would expect to see a return to something higher than where we were in Q1.

    是的。沒有。Ed 指出了其中的一些短期動態。但是我們在第四季度和第一季度看到的只是我們積壓工作的混合。我們已經看到我們最近看到的一些定價和產品變化,漏斗銷售組合開始更多地向 TPO 或第三方擁有的方向移動。所以我認為我們會脫離目前的水平。埃德在那裡提到的幾點可能會影響貸款在多長時間內仍然像現在一樣有吸引力。但我們預計會看到比第一季度更高的水平。

  • David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

    David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then just switching gears, so the additional investment in the SK venture, $75 million, I think you highlighted, could you maybe give a little kind of preview of some of the initiatives you're working on through that? And when you do expect to commercialize some of these products and services, would you expect to see these flow into your net subscriber value metrics? In other words, be additive to the 10-K that you pointed to later this year?

    偉大的。然後只是換檔,所以對 SK 合資企業的額外投資,7500 萬美元,我想你強調了,你能否對你正在通過的一些舉措進行一些預覽?當您確實希望將其中一些產品和服務商業化時,您是否希望看到這些流入您的淨訂戶價值指標?換句話說,是你今年晚些時候提到的 10-K 的附加值嗎?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • I mean, make no mistake, everything we do is about how it can be additive from a customer perspective, clearly, an investor perspective and a community perspective. So yes, we're very excited about the technology that this venture is working on. But we're not in a position to give any more specifics about it at this time.

    我的意思是,毫無疑問,我們所做的一切都是關於如何從客戶的角度,從投資者的角度和社區的角度來看。所以,是的,我們對這個合資企業正在研究的技術感到非常興奮。但我們目前無法提供更多細節。

  • Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

    Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

  • I think that's all the time we have for questions. Appreciate it.

    我認為這就是我們提出問題的所有時間。欣賞它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, it is. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you very much for participating.

    是的。女士們,先生們,問答環節到此結束。今天的會議到此結束。您此時可以斷開您的線路,非常感謝您的參與。