Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to your Sunrun Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the floor over to Patrick Jobin, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

    女士們,先生們,美好的一天,歡迎參加 Sunrun 2021 年第三季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)此時,我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係部的 Patrick Jobin。先生,地板是你的。

  • Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

    Patrick Jobin - Senior VP of Finance & IR

  • Thank you, Terence. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from our projections made in any forward-looking statements.

    謝謝你,特倫斯。在開始之前,請注意,我們將在本次電話會議上發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於我們目前已知的因素做出的最佳判斷,但實際結果可能存在重大差異和不利影響。請參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與我們在任何前瞻性陳述中做出的預測不同的風險和其他因素。

  • Please also note that these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Executive Chair -- Co-Executive Chair; and Tom VonReichbauer, Sunrun's CFO. Following the prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. We ask that you limit yourself to just 1 question, so we can take as many questions from participants as the scheduled time allows. And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

    另請注意,這些聲明是從今天開始發布的,我們不承擔任何更新或修改它們的義務。今天的電話會議是 Sunrun 的首席執行官 Mary Powell; Ed Fenster,Sunrun 的聯合創始人兼執行主席——聯合執行主席;和 Sunrun 的首席財務官 Tom VonReichbauer。在準備好的發言之後,我們將進行問答環節。我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題上,以便我們可以在預定時間允許的情況下從參與者那裡收集盡可能多的問題。現在讓我把電話轉給瑪麗。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Patrick. Hi. I am so pleased to be speaking to all of you today on my first quarterly call as CEO of this industry-leading transformational company. While I am only just a couple of months into the role, my excitement for all we have and will accomplish to accelerate the customer-led revolution to distributed energy is building in intensity. In my first month, I particularly enjoyed working directly in the field with our customer-facing teams, our dedicated installation crews, our partners and most importantly, with our customers.

    謝謝你,帕特里克。你好。我很高興今天在我作為這家行業領先的轉型公司的首席執行官的第一個季度電話會議上與大家交談。雖然我才剛剛上任幾個月,但我對我們所擁有的和將要完成的一切以加速以客戶為主導的分佈式能源革命的興奮正在增強。在我的第一個月,我特別喜歡直接在現場與我們面向客戶的團隊、我們專門的安裝人員、我們的合作夥伴一起工作,最重要的是,與我們的客戶一起工作。

  • First, I will touch on our performance in the quarter, and then I will discuss my priorities for the company in the months ahead. The Sunrun team delivered a strong third quarter, growing our customer base by over 30,000 customers, reflecting an 18% growth of solar energy capacity installed compared to the prior quarter. We continue to see very strong sales activities as well with more than 20% sequential growth in customer orders. Our volumes included records in our new homes business, our channel partner business and our direct business. We also set records again with our highest battery installations in Q3, achieving more than 100% year-over-year growth, providing what customers want to power through grid outages and to optimize when and how they consume energy. This is an incredibly powerful accomplishment and bodes incredibly well for our work going forward on dramatically advancing whole home electrification.

    首先,我將談談我們在本季度的表現,然後我將討論公司未來幾個月的優先事項。 Sunrun 團隊在第三季度取得了強勁的業績,我們的客戶群增加了 30,000 多個客戶,與上一季度相比,太陽能裝機容量增長了 18%。我們繼續看到非常強勁的銷售活動以及超過 20% 的客戶訂單連續增長。我們的銷量包括我們的新房業務、我們的渠道合作夥伴業務和我們的直接業務的記錄。我們還以第三季度的最高電池安裝量再次創下記錄,實現了超過 100% 的同比增長,為客戶提供了在電網中斷時所需的電力,並優化了他們消耗能源的時間和方式。這是一項令人難以置信的強大成就,預示著我們在大力推進整個家庭電氣化方面的工作非常好。

  • We continue to expect 30% growth in new solar energy capacity installed this year as the team continues to execute and homeowners demand clean, affordable energy options. Importantly, we delivered a strong improvement in our net subscriber value, which increased over $2,000 sequentially, and we expect to report even higher net subscriber values again in Q4. As many of you know, the industry continues to navigate a very dynamic supply chain environment with higher logistics and material costs in addition to continued tightness on battery supply. This is why I am so pleased that Sunrun was able to onboard a third battery supplier, and we are seeing that tightness gradually improve for our customers. As everyone in the industry is facing these cost increases and limitations on battery availability, we have selectively and modestly raised prices several times during the quarter to mitigate some of these effects.

    隨著團隊繼續執行和房主需要清潔、負擔得起的能源選擇,我們繼續預計今年安裝的新太陽能容量將增長 30%。重要的是,我們的淨訂戶價值顯著提高,環比增長超過 2,000 美元,我們預計第四季度將再次報告更高的淨訂戶價值。正如你們許多人所知,除了電池供應持續緊張之外,該行業繼續在一個非常動態的供應鏈環境中航行,物流和材料成本更高。這就是為什麼我很高興 Sunrun 能夠加入第三家電池供應商,我們看到我們的客戶的緊密度逐漸提高。由於行業中的每個人都面臨著這些成本增加和電池可用性的限制,我們在本季度有選擇地和適度地提高了幾次價格,以減輕其中的一些影響。

  • That said, it is important to put these price increases in the context of utility rates, which are continuing to escalate at a rapid pace, which means our value proposition continues to grow, particularly when you consider that we offer a form of resilience that customers are demanding and utilities simply aren't able to provide. I am filled with optimism and hope simply because today, we have the tools to address the climatic challenges and provide customers with clean, affordable and resilient energy which the centralized grandpa's grid simply cannot do. Our electric grid system is failing more frequently and fundamentally not built for climate change. Sunrun's mission of creating a planet run by the sun is more critical today than ever before. We've made a lot of progress to date. Sunrun has built a large base of over 630,000 customers and leads the market with our accessible solar and storage service offerings. We are operating at a scale that is 2x larger than our nearest competitor, which drives more efficiency and value-creation opportunities. We are investing heavily to differentiate further and build the brand customers think of to not just power their homes but to transform their lives.

    也就是說,將這些價格上漲放在公用事業費率的背景下很重要,公用事業費率繼續快速上漲,這意味著我們的價值主張繼續增長,特別是當您認為我們提供了一種彈性形式的客戶要求很高,而公用事業根本無法提供。我充滿樂觀和希望,僅僅是因為今天,我們擁有應對氣候挑戰的工具,並為客戶提供清潔、負擔得起和有彈性的能源,而集中式爺爺的電網根本無法做到。我們的電網系統故障更加頻繁,而且根本不是為氣候變化而建造的。 Sunrun 創造一個由太陽運行的行星的使命在今天比以往任何時候都更加重要。迄今為止,我們已經取得了很大進展。 Sunrun 建立了超過 630,000 名客戶的龐大基礎,並憑藉我們無障礙的太陽能和存儲服務產品引領市場。我們的運營規模是最接近的競爭對手的 2 倍,這推動了更多的效率和價值創造機會。我們正在大力投資以進一步差異化並建立客戶認為的品牌,不僅可以為他們的家庭供電,還可以改變他們的生活。

  • Sunrun has now installed over 28,000 solar and battery systems nationwide, which offers homeowners the ability to power through multi-day outages with clean and reliable home energy. Solar and battery systems also optimize when power is purchased or supplied to the grid, helping to manage constraints on the grid during peak times. We are starting to network these batteries together to form virtual power plants, which generates incremental recurring revenue and offers an enhanced customer value proposition, further differentiating Sunrun's offerings from companies that lack the scale, network density and the technical capabilities necessary to serve this market. Sunrun has forged 12 virtual power plant awards to date and has a pipeline of more than $75 million in revenue. We expect to convert more of this pipeline in the quarters ahead and show how valuable distributed resources can be to solve challenges the traditional energy system faces.

    Sunrun 現在已經在全國安裝了超過 28,000 個太陽能和電池系統,這使房主能夠以清潔可靠的家庭能源在多日停電中供電。太陽能和電池系統還可以在購買電力或向電網供電時進行優化,幫助管理高峰時段對電網的限制。我們開始將這些電池聯網以形成虛擬發電廠,從而產生增量經常性收入並提供增強的客戶價值主張,進一步將 Sunrun 的產品與缺乏服務該市場所需的規模、網絡密度和技術能力的公司區分開來。迄今為止,Sunrun 已獲得 12 個虛擬電廠獎項,並擁有超過 7500 萬美元的收入。我們預計在未來幾個季度將更多地轉換這條管道,並展示分佈式資源在解決傳統能源系統面臨的挑戰方面的價值。

  • I believe now is the time for radical collaboration with incumbent players. Moving faster together, we can solve challenges they face through this modern thinking about how to manage the grid. We continue to be excited about our partnership with Ford and expect meaningful flywheel effects from the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. As we have noted in the past, the adoption of electric vehicles provides meaningful tailwinds to our business. Consumers want to charge their cars with clean, affordable energy and often consider a solar and battery system when they make the switch to an EV. It also provides us the opportunity to increase the size of systems, which can carry high incremental margins and bring even more value to customers. We believe we are well on our way as the leader in the nation on distributed energy paired with a clear strategy to be a trusted partner on whole home electrification.

    我相信現在是與現有玩家進行激進合作的時候了。共同加快步伐,我們可以通過這種關於如何管理電網的現代思維來解決他們面臨的挑戰。我們繼續對與福特的合作感到興奮,並期待電動汽車的廣泛採用會產生有意義的飛輪效應。正如我們過去所指出的,採用電動汽車為我們的業務提供了有意義的順風。消費者希望用清潔、負擔得起的能源為汽車充電,並在轉向電動汽車時經常考慮使用太陽能和電池系統。它還為我們提供了增加系統規模的機會,這可以帶來高增量利潤並為客戶帶來更多價值。我們相信,我們正在成為分佈式能源領域的全國領導者,並製定了明確的戰略,成為整個家庭電氣化領域值得信賴的合作夥伴。

  • To sum it up, I am very excited about our progress thus far, the path we are on and the opportunities in front of us. I believe 2022 will be another breakout year for Sunrun with above-market sustainable growth, accelerating investments in innovation and driving continued differentiation by launching more whole home electrification offerings. I also believe that our leading scale, operating discipline and strong capital markets will enable us to generate significant value for our stakeholders. We'll provide more specifics as we finalize our 2022 plan and see what emerges from D.C.

    總而言之,我對我們迄今取得的進展、我們所走的道路以及擺在我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。我相信 2022 年對於 Sunrun 來說將是又一個突破性的一年,其可持續增長高於市場,加速創新投資,並通過推出更多整體家庭電氣化產品來推動持續差異化。我還相信,我們領先的規模、運營紀律和強大的資本市場將使我們能夠為我們的利益相關者創造巨大的價值。當我們最終確定 2022 年計劃時,我們將提供更多細節,並看看華盛頓特區會發生什麼。

  • Before I turn the call over to Ed and Tom, I'd really like to thank our employees, our customers, our partners for their contributions to our success and for their dedication to our mission. Over to you, Ed.

    在我將電話轉給 Ed 和 Tom 之前,我真的要感謝我們的員工、客戶和合作夥伴,感謝他們為我們的成功做出的貢獻以及他們對我們使命的奉獻。交給你了,埃德。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Thanks, Mary. We continue to exceed our own expectations and capital market execution. And today, I'll provide an update on our progress and strategy. I'll also touch on a couple of policy matters. As we discussed last quarter, we have decided principally to pursue a strategy that will drive near-term cash generation using nonrecourse debt. I've been saying for years that cost of capital and residential solar transactions should be lower than in utility scale transactions. I concluded this because the diversity of customer, equipment, location and regulations in a residential solar transaction make for less risk than in utility scale transactions, which lack diversity and typically include a single customer with a weak investment-grade credit rating.

    謝謝,瑪麗。我們繼續超越自己的預期和資本市場執行力。今天,我將介紹我們的進展和戰略的最新情況。我還將談到一些政策問題。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣,我們主要決定採用一種利用無追索權債務推動近期現金產生的戰略。多年來我一直在說,資本和住宅太陽能交易的成本應該低於公用事業規模的交易。我之所以得出這一結論,是因為住宅太陽能交易中客戶、設備、地點和法規的多樣性使得風險低於公用事業規模交易,後者缺乏多樣性,通常包括投資級信用評級較弱的單個客戶。

  • In addition, Sunrun finances billions of dollars against the same form contract, whereas utility scale transactions are all bespoke and so more costly for lenders to review. This quarter, we made my vision a reality, at least in the senior debt market where we priced an asset-backed security at a spread to the benchmark swap rate of 120 basis points. Recent senior loans in the utility scale solar, wind and storage markets have been pricing at spreads between 125 and 175. We also made significant progress reducing the cost of our subordinated capital.

    此外,Sunrun 根據同一份合同融資數十億美元,而公用事業規模的交易都是定制的,因此貸方審查的成本更高。本季度,我們實現了我的願景,至少在高級債務市場中,我們以基準互換利率 120 個基點的利差對資產支持證券進行定價。最近公用事業規模太陽能、風能和儲能市場的優先貸款定價在 125 至 175 之間。我們在降低次級資本成本方面也取得了重大進展。

  • In this transaction, we achieved interest rate savings of 20% to 33% as compared to recent transactions. However, we still have significant room for interest rate reduction before our subordinated capital underprices utility scale transactions, which I ultimately predict it will. The all-in proceeds on this transaction significantly exceeded 100% of contracted subscriber value when measured using a 5% discount rate. The transaction included both newly placed in serviced assets and seasoned assets. And we estimate the advance rate on the newly placed in service assets was slightly more than 100% of contracted subscriber value. This result is above the high end of the 95% to 100% range we forecast on the last call. We continue to believe 95% to 100% of contracted subscriber value is a good rule of thumb to use in cash flow forecasting of newly placed in service assets. This level of proceeds is well in excess of our fully burdened costs. So we do not need to execute equity or equity-linked financings to fund our strong ongoing customer growth despite the fact we were incurring billions in capital expenditures and operating costs.

    在此次交易中,與近期交易相比,我們實現了 20% 至 33% 的利率節省。然而,在我們的次級資本低於公用事業規模交易之前,我們仍有很大的降息空間,我最終預計會降息。以 5% 的貼現率衡量,本次交易的全部收益顯著超過簽約用戶價值的 100%。該交易包括新放置的服務資產和經驗豐富的資產。我們估計新投入服務資產的預付率略高於簽約用戶價值的 100%。這一結果高於我們在上次電話會議上預測的 95% 至 100% 範圍的高端。我們仍然認為 95% 至 100% 的簽約用戶價值是一個很好的經驗法則,可用於新投放服務資產的現金流預測。這一水平的收益遠遠超過了我們全部負擔的成本。因此,儘管我們產生了數十億美元的資本支出和運營成本,但我們不需要執行股權或股權相關融資來為我們強勁的持續客戶增長提供資金。

  • The portion of the assets in this transaction that were seasoned received an advance rate in excess of the newly placed in service assets, raising the average advance rate on the overall transaction. This result is a further proof point of the cash flows available to us upon refinancing seasoned assets. Last month, we also expanded our warehouse facility to support continued growth while also lowering the cost of financing. We increased our nonrecourse warehouse lending facility to $1.8 billion in commitments, an increase of $1 billion, while also reducing the interest cost to a spread of 200 basis points over LIBOR. Cash flow in Q3 was reduced by 2 factors, 1 temporary and 1 permanent. First, in connection with the retirement of our old warehouse facility, we settled several out-of-the-money interest rate swaps, many of which we entered into during 2018.

    本次交易資產中老化的部分獲得的墊款率超過了新投放的服務性資產,提高了整體交易的平均墊款率。這一結果進一步證明了我們在為舊資產再融資時可獲得的現金流。上個月,我們還擴大了倉庫設施,以支持持續增長,同時降低融資成本。我們將無追索權倉庫貸款工具的承諾增加到 18 億美元,增加了 10 億美元,同時還將利息成本與 LIBOR 的利差降低到 200 個基點。第三季度的現金流減少了 2 個因素,1 個臨時性的,1 個永久性的。首先,與我們的舊倉庫設施的退役有關,我們結算了幾筆價外利率掉期,其中許多是我們在 2018 年簽訂的。

  • As a reminder, our strategy is to enter into interest rate swaps to mitigate the impact of interest rate fluctuations on our business. Because rates were higher in 2018, this swap termination resulted in a cash outflow of approximately $45 million. Because we do not include swap mark-to-market in our net earning assets calculation, this unusual repayment created a dollar-for-dollar headwind to NEA in the quarter. In addition, we made 2 draws on the new subordinated debt placement, 1 in Q3 and the other in Q4. While the transactions we executed in Q3 serve as proof points that our large scale affords us access to the lowest cost of capital in the industry, the same large ticket sizes that afford us this advantage also make our free cash flow generation a little lumpy. Over the near term, cash flow generation may also be nonlinear due to investments in working capital. However, under this financing strategy over several quarters and especially next year, the cash flow generation of the business should be substantial.

    提醒一下,我們的策略是進行利率掉期以減輕利率波動對我們業務的影響。由於 2018 年利率較高,此次掉期終止導致現金流出約 4500 萬美元。由於我們的淨收益資產計算中不包括按市值計價的掉期,因此這種不尋常的還款在本季度對 NEA 造成了美元兌美元的逆風。此外,我們對新的次級債務配售進行了 2 次提取,1 次在第三季度,另一次在第四季度。雖然我們在第三季度執行的交易證明了我們的大規模使我們能夠獲得業內最低的資本成本,但同樣為我們提供這種優勢的大票規模也使我們的自由現金流產生有點不穩定。在短期內,由於對營運資金的投資,現金流的產生也可能是非線性的。然而,在這種融資策略下,未來幾個季度,尤其是明年,該業務的現金流產生應該是可觀的。

  • We continue to maintain a robust project finance runway. As of November 4, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us expected tax equity and project debt capacity to fund over 270 megawatts for subscribers beyond what was deployed through the third quarter. Given likely tax law changes in the reconciliation bill, which is currently being discussed in Congress, we are advancing a handful of additional transactions without formal term sheets. This is because the proposed tax law changes, once finalized, will require modifications to financing structures and terms and likely expand our business strategy. Including these advanced-stage discussions in our runway would add about 2 quarters' worth of additional tax equity capacity. Key among the considerations are an increase in the investment tax credit from 26% to 30%, a potential additional 10% to 20% credit for systems deployed in certain census tracks or to certain multifamily buildings and direct pay.

    我們繼續保持穩健的項目融資渠道。截至 11 月 4 日,已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收權益和項目債務能力,為超過第三季度部署的用戶提供超過 270 兆瓦的資金。鑑於目前正在國會討論的和解法案中可能發生的稅法變化,我們正在推進一些沒有正式條款清單的額外交易。這是因為擬議的稅法變更一旦最終確定,將需要修改融資結構和條款,並可能擴大我們的業務戰略。在我們的跑道上包括這些高級階段的討論將增加大約 2 個季度的額外稅收公平能力。其中的關鍵考慮因素是將投資稅收抵免從 26% 增加到 30%,對於部署在某些人口普查軌道或某些多戶住宅和直接支付的系統,潛在的額外 10% 到 20% 的抵免。

  • In local policy news, the Arizona Commerce Commission voted last week to eliminate the existing grid access charge for solar customers, improving the economics of rooftop solar in the state by about $90 per year. We and others argued and the commission agreed that the cost of service for solar customers does not warrant an incremental fixed fee. Despite the data, Arizona Public Service, the local investor-owned utility, has advocated for fees as high as $288 per year. Also interesting is that the approved regulated rate of return for APS is 8.7% compared to the California utilities requests of about 12%. Especially in this low interest rate environment, where expected equity returns for GDP growth companies are in the mid- to high single digits, a comparison of these ROEs underscores that if there is a cost shift in the state of California, it is from ratepayers to utility stockholders. I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

    在當地政策新聞中,亞利桑那州商務委員會上週投票取消了對太陽能客戶的現有電網接入費,將該州屋頂太陽能的經濟性每年提高約 90 美元。我們和其他人爭辯說,委員會同意太陽能客戶的服務成本不保證增加固定費用。儘管有這些數據,但當地投資者擁有的公用事業公司亞利桑那州公共服務公司一直主張每年收取高達 288 美元的費用。同樣有趣的是,批准的 APS 監管回報率為 8.7%,而加州公用事業要求的回報率約為 12%。尤其是在這種低利率環境下,GDP 增長公司的預期股票回報率處於中高個位數,這些 ROE 的比較強調,如果加利福尼亞州發生成本轉移,那就是從納稅人轉移到公用事業股東。我現在把電話轉給湯姆。

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Thanks, Ed. Throughout the third quarter, we made continued progress on our integration with Vivint Solar and navigated a dynamic operating environment. We delivered solid results, posting strong volume growth and a significant rebound in our reported net subscriber values, while also marking another quarter of growing our cash balance. Importantly, we were able to reiterate our strong 30% growth outlook for the year and deliver meaningful total value generated for the full year.

    謝謝,埃德。在整個第三季度,我們在與 Vivint Solar 的整合方面取得了持續進展,並駕馭了一個動態的運營環境。我們取得了穩健的業績,實現了強勁的銷量增長和我們報告的淨訂戶價值的顯著反彈,同時也標誌著我們的現金餘額又增加了一個季度。重要的是,我們能夠重申我們今年強勁的 30% 增長前景,並為全年創造了有意義的總價值。

  • Turning first to volumes. In the third quarter, customer additions were approximately 30,700, including approximately 24,800 subscriber additions. Solar energy capacity installed was 219 megawatts in the third quarter of 2021, an 18% increase from the second quarter this year and a 40% increase from the third quarter of last year, pro forma to include Vivint Solar. We continued to experience strong customer demand for our products and services in Q3, with sales growth outpacing installed growth, but the gap between sales and installs was narrowed meaningfully versus what we experienced in the second quarter.

    首先轉向卷。第三季度,新增客戶約 30,700 人,其中新增用戶約 24,800 人。 2021 年第三季度太陽能裝機容量為 219 兆瓦,比今年第二季度增長 18%,比去年第三季度增長 40%,備考包括 Vivint Solar。我們在第三季度繼續感受到客戶對我們的產品和服務的強勁需求,銷售額增長超過了安裝增長,但與第二季度相比,銷售和安裝之間的差距明顯縮小。

  • Installation growth was strong across all of our channels with double-digit install growth rates versus prior year in every route to market. There was notable strength in our direct and new homes businesses in the quarter. Our continued customer additions offer us the opportunity to upsell additional products and services over time, such as battery retrofits, EV chargers, repowered or expanded systems and home energy management offerings. Additionally, increasing our total fleet of assets helps unlock valuable opportunities to grow our virtual power plant business. To this point, the inability of a small competitor to perform created an opportunity to add approximately 2,000 customers or 13 megawatts to this quarter's growth in our fleet of solar systems. While such opportunities may present themselves again in the future, we do not expect more in the near term, but we'll evaluate future opportunities to further consolidate the industry and grow our customer base if they arise. Installation volumes and attachment rates of batteries have increased again in Q3 to record levels. We continue to expect battery installations to increase more than 100% in 2021 compared to the prior year although battery supply and logistics constraints have lowered our expected battery volumes meaningfully in the near term compared to the prior outlook.

    我們所有渠道的安裝量增長強勁,在每條進入市場的渠道中,安裝量增長率都與去年相比達到了兩位數。本季度我們的直接和新房業務表現出顯著的優勢。隨著時間的推移,我們不斷增加的客戶為我們提供了追加銷售其他產品和服務的機會,例如電池改造、電動汽車充電器、重新供電或擴展的系統以及家庭能源管理產品。此外,增加我們的總資產車隊有助於釋放寶貴的機會來發展我們的虛擬電廠業務。在這一點上,一個小競爭對手的無能創造了一個機會,在本季度我們的太陽能係統車隊的增長中增加了大約 2,000 名客戶或 13 兆瓦。雖然此類機會可能會在未來再次出現,但我們預計短期內不會有更多機會,但我們將評估未來機會,以進一步鞏固行業並擴大我們的客戶群(如果出現)。第三季度電池的安裝量和附著率再次增加至創紀錄水平。我們繼續預計 2021 年的電池安裝量將比上一年增加 100% 以上,儘管與之前的展望相比,電池供應和物流限制在短期內顯著降低了我們的預期電池量。

  • Our network solar energy capacity was 4.5 gigawatts at the end of Q3, an increase of 20% compared to the prior year, also pro forma to include Vivint Solar. We ended Q3 with approximately 630,000 customers and nearly 546,000 subscribers. Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q3, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at $787 million with an average contract life remaining of over 17 years.

    截至第三季度末,我們的網絡太陽能容量為 4.5 吉瓦,比上年增長 20%,也包括 Vivint Solar。我們在第三季度結束時擁有大約 630,000 名客戶和近 546,000 名訂閱者。我們的訂戶通過我們提供的清潔能源的大多數合同期限在 20 年或 25 年以下,產生了可觀的經常性收入。在第三季度末,我們的年度經常性收入或 ARR 為 7.87 億美元,平均合同期限超過 17 年。

  • In Q3, subscriber value was approximately $35,700 and creation cost was approximately $28,100 delivering a net subscriber value of approximately $7,600. This represents a significant increase of over $2,000 from last quarter as we expected, as we narrowed the gap between sales activities and installation activities. Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $189 million in the third quarter.

    在第三季度,訂戶價值約為 35,700 美元,創建成本約為 28,100 美元,淨訂戶價值約為 7,600 美元。正如我們預期的那樣,這比上一季度顯著增加了 2,000 多美元,因為我們縮小了銷售活動和安裝活動之間的差距。第三季度產生的總價值為 1.89 億美元,即淨訂戶價值乘以同期新增訂戶數量。

  • Turning now to gross and net earning assets on our balance sheet. Gross earning assets were $9.2 billion at the end of the third quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from customers over time, net of distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures, project equity financing partners and operating and maintenance expenses, discounted at a 5% unlevered WACC. Net earning assets were $4.5 billion at the end of the third quarter, an increase of over $86 million from the second quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. We ended the quarter with $941 million in total cash, an increase of $84 million from the prior quarter.

    現在轉向我們資產負債表上的總資產和淨收益資產。截至第三季度末,總盈利資產為 92 億美元。總收益資產是衡量我們預計隨著時間的推移從客戶那裡獲得的現金流量,扣除對稅收股權合作夥伴和合夥企業翻轉結構、項目股權融資合作夥伴以及運營和維護費用的分配,以 5% 的無槓桿 WACC 貼現。第三季度末的淨收益資產為 45 億美元,比第二季度增加了 8600 萬美元。淨收益資產是總收益資產加上現金減去所有債務。我們在本季度末的總現金為 9.41 億美元,比上一季度增加了 8400 萬美元。

  • Turning now to our outlook. The current federal investment tax credit proposals for higher incentive levels in 2022 creates some uncertainty around volumes at year-end, but we continue to forecast solar energy capacity installed growth of 30% for the full year 2021, consistent with our prior guidance. Total value generated is now expected to be around $700 million for the full year, owing to higher material and logistics costs, continued strong sales growth and a lower mix of margin-accretive battery installations in Q4 than we had previously expected given the current supply chain environment. We continue to monitor the global supply chain and related regulatory environment, which could cause headwinds to the solar industry and global economy. However, we think we are well positioned to weather current conditions. We forecast net subscriber values will be higher in Q4 than Q3, which already saw a strong increase from Q2.

    現在轉向我們的前景。目前關於 2022 年提高激勵水平的聯邦投資稅收抵免提案給年底的數量帶來了一些不確定性,但我們繼續預測 2021 年全年太陽能裝機容量將增長 30%,這與我們之前的指導一致。鑑於目前的供應鏈,由於材料和物流成本增加、銷售持續強勁增長以及第四季度可增加利潤的電池安裝組合低於我們之前的預期,現在預計全年產生的總價值約為 7 億美元環境。我們繼續關注全球供應鍊和相關監管環境,這可能對太陽能行業和全球經濟造成不利影響。然而,我們認為我們已經做好了應對當前狀況的準備。我們預測第四季度的淨用戶價值將高於第三季度,第三季度已經比第二季度強勁增長。

  • As the difference between sales activities and installation activities normalizes, our battery mix increases, recent price adjustments are reflected in installations, and as we realize more synergies from the Vivint Solar acquisition, we expect net subscriber values to be strong in 2022. We continue to estimate cost synergies derived from the acquisition of Vivint Solar to be approximately $120 million in run rate synergies exiting this year. While 2021 is not yet over, the work we've undertaken this year to integrate Vivint Solar into our operations, realize valuable cost synergies from that transaction, invest in our growth and competitive positioning across all routes to market, and extend our leadership in project-based financing capabilities has set us up for another excellent year in 2022. We believe we are well positioned for strong above-market volume growth and healthy net subscriber values resulting in meaningful cash generation, likely more than $300 million in 2022.

    隨著銷售活動和安裝活動之間的差異正常化,我們的電池組合增加,最近的價格調整反映在安裝中,並且隨著我們從 Vivint Solar 收購中實現更多協同效應,我們預計 2022 年淨用戶價值將保持強勁。我們將繼續估計收購 Vivint Solar 所產生的成本協同效應在今年退出的運行率協同效應中約為 1.2 億美元。雖然 2021 年尚未結束,但我們今年開展的工作是將 Vivint Solar 整合到我們的運營中,從該交易中實現寶貴的成本協同效應,投資於我們在所有進入市場的途徑中的增長和競爭定位,並擴大我們在項目方面的領導地位基於融資的能力使我們在 2022 年迎來又一個出色的一年。我們相信,我們已做好準備,實現強勁的高於市場的銷量增長和健康的淨用戶價值,從而產生有意義的現金產生,到 2022 年可能超過 3 億美元。

  • We anticipate sharing more details on our specific 2022 volume, margin and cash generation outlook on the Q4 conference call in February. We will also share more details about how we will approach our capital structure strategy to optimize shareholder returns at that time. With that, let's open the line for questions, please.

    我們預計在 2 月份的第四季度電話會議上分享更多關於我們 2022 年具體數量、利潤率和現金產生前景的細節。我們還將分享更多關於屆時我們將如何實施資本結構戰略以優化股東回報的細節。有了這個,讓我們打開問題的線路,拜託。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

    (操作員說明)我們將向高盛的 Brian Lee 提出第一個問題。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • Maybe, Tom, on that last point, you made the $300 million of cash flow generation in 2022, I appreciate the sneak preview on that as we get into this (inaudible). Is your definition still sort of cash balance at year-end versus cash (inaudible) plus $300 million, and that's how you define it? And then a lot of it is going to have to do with how you raise capital and been pretty proactive here to end the year. How much visibility do you already have locked in at this point to that cash flow metric for next year?

    也許,湯姆,在最後一點上,你在 2022 年創造了 3 億美元的現金流,我很欣賞我們進入這一點時的先睹為快(聽不清)。您的定義是否仍然是年底的現金餘額與現金(聽不清)加上 3 億美元,這就是您的定義?然後,其中很大一部分將與您如何籌集資金以及如何在年底前非常積極主動地有關。在這一點上,您對明年的現金流量指標有多少可見性?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Brian. So the definition we're using here is the change in total cash net of any changes to recourse debt given our working capital facility and corporate revolver can size up and down. So this is total change in cash to the parent entity, net of changes in debt. So as we've looked at the variety of scenarios in front of us on the federal policy front, supply chain disruptions, we've modeled out a number of different views on volume and margins and pricing and the like and feel really confident with the $300 million level at this time. And as we work through clarity on those couple of items, we'll come back with a more precise view of the whole picture, inclusive of volumes and margins on the Q4 call.

    是的。謝謝,布賴恩。因此,我們在這裡使用的定義是考慮到我們的營運資金設施和公司左輪手槍的規模可以上下浮動,總現金淨額的變化減去追索權債務的任何變化。所以這是母公司的現金總變動,扣除債務變動。因此,當我們在聯邦政策方面、供應鏈中斷等方面研究了擺在我們面前的各種情景時,我們已經對數量、利潤率和定價等方面建立了許多不同的看法,並對目前3億美元的水平。當我們對這幾個項目進行澄清時,我們將更準確地了解整個情況,包括第四季度電話會議的交易量和利潤率。

  • Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

    Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. And then I know you said the lower mix of battery installs is impacting the 2021 subscriber value generation guidance. Before you had said 100% year-on-year growth. Can you kind of give us a sense of what you're seeing now? And then maybe taking a step back, what's your supply situation on that new product? Is it still the 2 vendors? Or what have you done to maybe source more supply there as we head into 2022?

    好的。很公平。然後我知道你說電池安裝量的減少正在影響 2021 年用戶價值生成指南。之前你說過100%的同比增長。你能告訴我們你現在所看到的嗎?然後也許退後一步,您對該新產品的供應情況如何?還是那2個供應商嗎?或者,隨著我們進入 2022 年,您做了哪些工作來獲得更多供應?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes. So the reduction in near-term battery supply has us bringing our total value generated guidance to around $700 million. We definitely are expecting lower battery attach on installs in Q4 than we previously expected but still north of 100%. So still reaffirming that guidance. We had previously expected quite a bit of headroom above that and now a bit closer to that. We've diversified our supply chain. Mary mentioned that we've added a new supplier into the mix that's in the process of launching here. And so continue to maintain optionality across a variety of suppliers to navigate the environment. We think the overall picture on batteries, consistent with what I said before, very tight now, will improve as manufacturers ramp up as some of the general global supply chain challenges are relieved and expect to come out of a tight position in future quarters. But in the interim, we're able to build a backlog of projects. And so as we get access to supply, we'll be able to keep ramping there. But we were at record battery volumes and attach rates in Q3 and still expecting more than 100% year-over-year growth.

    是的。因此,近期電池供應的減少使我們的總價值產生指導達到了 7 億美元左右。我們肯定預計第四季度安裝的電池電量低於我們之前的預期,但仍高於 100%。所以仍然重申這一指導。我們之前曾預計在此之上會有相當多的淨空,現在更接近這一點。我們實現了供應鏈多元化。 Mary 提到我們已經在此處推出的產品組合中添加了一個新的供應商。因此,繼續保持對各種供應商的選擇權來駕馭環境。我們認為,與我之前所說的一致,現在非常緊張的電池整體情況將隨著製造商的增加而改善,因為全球供應鏈的一些總體挑戰得到緩解,並有望在未來幾個季度擺脫緊張局面。但在此期間,我們能夠建立積壓的項目。因此,當我們獲得供應時,我們將能夠繼續增加供應。但我們在第三季度達到了創紀錄的電池容量和附加率,並且仍然預計同比增長超過 100%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from James West with Evercore ISI.

    我們將向 Evercore ISI 的 James West 提出我們的下一個問題。

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD

    James Carlyle West - Senior MD

  • So Mary, we're not surprised to hear the excitement in your voice because I've been on my Twitter feeds, you're all over it and you're in a different city almost every day meeting with your teams and stuff. So well done to get out there.

    所以,瑪麗,聽到你聲音中的興奮,我們並不感到驚訝,因為我一直在我的 Twitter 上,你對此很感興趣,而且你幾乎每天都在不同的城市與你的團隊和其他人會面。做得很好,能出去。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD

    James Carlyle West - Senior MD

  • So curious about the -- I guess, 2 things. One is the new channel partners and the 100% of those this quarter that agreed to be exclusive to you guys. How is that different from the last several quarters? Were they not all exclusive? And is this part of just brand recognition or execution or service quality kind of flow into the market?

    很好奇——我猜,有兩件事。一個是新的渠道合作夥伴,以及本季度 100% 同意為你們獨家提供的渠道合作夥伴。這與過去幾個季度有何不同?他們不都是排他的嗎?這只是品牌認知、執行或服務質量的一部分流入市場嗎?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes. I'll jump in here on channel partners. We generally strive to sign up the majority of our partners under exclusive arrangements, some as we first get going aren't always exclusive. And over time, as we deepen those relationships, we convert many from a nonexclusive to an exclusive relationship, I can think of some notable examples there in recent weeks for us as well.

    是的。我將在這裡介紹渠道合作夥伴。我們通常會努力在獨家安排下簽約我們的大多數合作夥伴,有些在我們剛開始的時候並不總是排他的。隨著時間的推移,隨著我們加深這些關係,我們將許多關係從非排他性轉變為排他性關係,我也可以為我們想到最近幾週的一些值得注意的例子。

  • James Carlyle West - Senior MD

    James Carlyle West - Senior MD

  • Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And then I did notice, Tom, that your inventories were up a good amount like 30% sequentially. Is there some strategic move there? Or is that just a quarterly anomaly?

    好的。好的。很公平。然後我確實注意到,湯姆,你的庫存連續增加了 30%。那裡有一些戰略舉措嗎?或者這只是一個季度異常?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Inventory.

    存貨。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Yes. So we are deliberately increasing inventory levels just given some of the supply chain uncertainty in the marketplace between general logistics as around shipping and also some more disruption than that in the solar panel delivery markets. We're carrying triple digits of days inventory, including on panels likely into March. We continue to take deliveries weekly but it's obviously a very dynamic environment right now, and we just want to make sure that kind of no matter what happens over the short term or even moderate term geopolitically, we're able to continue to meet our customer needs.

    是的。因此,鑑於一般物流和航運之間的市場供應鏈存在一些不確定性,以及比太陽能電池板交付市場更多的中斷,我們故意增加庫存水平。我們攜帶三位數的天數庫存,包括可能到三月份的面板。我們繼續每週收貨,但現在顯然是一個非常動態的環境,我們只是想確保無論在短期或中期地緣政治上發生什麼,我們都能夠繼續與我們的客戶會面需要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Tristan Richardson with Truist Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tristan Richardson。

  • Tristan James Richardson - VP

    Tristan James Richardson - VP

  • Appreciate sort of the comments on some peripheral services, et cetera, particularly with Ford. Curious what other areas are you looking to? Some of your would-be peers kind of moved more inside the home. Could you talk about sort of potential there to expand the line of services? Obviously, a ton of new services have come over the past couple of years. But as you look a couple of years out, where do you see sort of additional services going?

    感謝對一些外圍服務等的評論,尤其是福特。好奇您還在尋找哪些其他領域?你的一些準同齡人會更多地搬到家裡。你能談談擴大服務範圍的潛力嗎?顯然,在過去幾年中出現了大量新服務。但是,當您展望幾年後,您會看到哪些額外的服務會走向何方?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • That's a great question. So just to recap the company's history so far, obviously, we were really a rooftop solar company for a long time. And many years ago, 5 or more, we really made a hard push into batteries where we're now definitely the #1 as well. I think we view ourselves as better positioned than anyone to assist customers and homeowners in particular, in electrifying their heating and transportation needs. We develop strong relationships with our customers. We've proven the marginal sales cost to add storage on a solar system is de minimis. We expect that would be the case with other services. The next service, which we're obviously pushing most hard towards is electric vehicles. As you know, we've discussed in the past, we codeveloped the bidirectional charger, which can be used with the Ford F-150 electric truck. That allows you to immediately operate your home from the truck in the event of a power outage. And over time, for virtual power plant purposes as well. Over time, as we get better and more significant at launching electric vehicles, other products are sure to follow around heat pumps and what have you. But I would say right now, the main focus is on continuing to dominate in the battery, the storage space and the launch of our electric vehicles product.

    這是一個很好的問題。因此,回顧公司迄今為止的歷史,很明顯,很長一段時間以來,我們確實是一家屋頂太陽能公司。許多年前,5 年或更多,我們真的大力推動電池領域,我們現在也絕對是第一名。我認為我們認為自己比任何人都更有能力幫助客戶和房主,特別是在電氣化他們的供暖和交通需求方面。我們與客戶建立牢固的關係。我們已經證明在太陽能係統上增加存儲的邊際銷售成本是微不足道的。我們預計其他服務也會如此。顯然,我們最努力推動的下一項服務是電動汽車。如您所知,我們過去曾討論過,我們共同開發了雙向充電器,可與福特 F-150 電動卡車一起使用。這使您可以在停電時立即從卡車上操作您的家。隨著時間的推移,虛擬電廠的目的也是如此。隨著時間的推移,隨著我們在推出電動汽車方面做得越來越好,越來越重要,其他產品肯定會跟隨熱泵和你有什麼。但我要說的是,目前的主要重點是繼續在電池、存儲空間和我們的電動汽車產品推出方面佔據主導地位。

  • Tristan James Richardson - VP

    Tristan James Richardson - VP

  • Super helpful. Great. And then just a follow-up on the grid services opportunity. I know you've talked about the $75 million of backlog before. Should we think about that as -- that $75 million is associated with the 12 programs you have announced? Or that is potential for programs that have yet to be announced in terms of the project funnel?

    超級有幫助。偉大的。然後只是對網格服務機會的跟進。我知道你之前談到過 7500 萬美元的積壓。我們是否應該將其視為 - 7500 萬美元與您宣布的 12 個項目相關聯?或者這對於尚未在項目漏斗方面宣布的計劃有潛力?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • It's a combination of the 12 awarded deals and other deals that are in late-stage negotiation within that pipeline. And as you've seen, given we've held at that number for a couple of quarters here, the awarding of deals can be quite lumpy. The contracting process with many of the counterparties here takes a while. But we believe we're building good headway there in expanding that pipeline, and we'll add to that in future quarters.

    這是 12 項中標交易和其他在該管道內處於後期談判階段的交易的組合。正如你所看到的,鑑於我們已經在這個數字上保持了幾個季度,交易的授予可能相當不穩定。與這裡的許多交易對手簽訂合同需要一段時間。但我們相信我們在擴大該管道方面取得了良好進展,我們將在未來幾個季度增加這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

    我們將向摩根大通的 Mark Strouse 提出下一個問題。

  • Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

    Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back again to the channel partners. You had pretty good growth quarter-over-quarter. Some of your large peers are kind of rolling up a lot of dealer partners as well. And then kind of last point, I mean, you mentioned the 2,000 customers or so that from a smaller competitor that couldn't deliver. Obviously, some of these competitors may not be as distressed as that particular competitor. But just curious how -- yes, I mean, is this really just driven by kind of a lack of ability to get equipment? Or is there something else that's kind of a more secular driver here that you think the larger companies with scale can consolidate this industry?

    我只是想再次回到渠道合作夥伴那裡。您的季度環比增長非常好。您的一些大型同行也正在召集許多經銷商合作夥伴。最後一點,我的意思是,你提到了來自無法交付的較小競爭對手的 2,000 名左右的客戶。顯然,其中一些競爭對手可能不像特定競爭對手那樣苦惱。但只是好奇如何——是的,我的意思是,這真的只是因為缺乏獲得設備的能力嗎?或者還有什麼其他更世俗的驅動因素,你認為有規模的大公司可以鞏固這個行業?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Great question. So this is Ed. So what's interesting about our industry, I think, is that there are just a lot of things that you need to do well. And there have been -- over the 14 years, I've been at this. I've seen companies not make it for various reasons. It could be construction quality. It could be financing, it could be sales strategy, it could be equipment provision. You're kind of only as strong as your weakest link. And I think one of the great things that we at Sunrun have is a fantastic and diverse management team that's able to deliver across the company in all areas. I would probably more describe this particular issue as just someone unable to achieve sufficient scale to overcome minimum operating costs. But I'm sure there are other things happening along the way as well.

    好問題。這就是埃德。所以我認為,我們這個行業的有趣之處在於,你需要做好很多事情。在過去的 14 年裡,我一直在做這件事。我見過一些公司因為各種原因沒有成功。可能是施工質量。可能是融資,可能是銷售策略,可能是設備供應。你的強大程度取決於你最薄弱的環節。我認為我們在 Sunrun 擁有的最棒的事情之一是一支出色而多元化的管理團隊,能夠在整個公司的所有領域提供服務。我可能會將這個特定問題描述為無法達到足夠規模以克服最低運營成本的人。但我確信在此過程中還會發生其他事情。

  • Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

    Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. You mentioned several price increases. Are you able to say what the cumulative change has been year-over-year whatever period you want to talk about? And has the value proposition to the customer, has that changed? Or is it kind of in line with the retail rates going up as well?

    是的。好的。然後只是快速跟進。你提到了幾次漲價。你能說出你想談論的任何時期的累積變化嗎?對客戶的價值主張是否改變了?或者這是否與零售價格的上漲一致?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes, I need to get back to you on an aggregate number here because we do evaluate the opportunity to price on a market-by-market basis, which often comes in concert with rising utility rates, which happened in these sort of multiyear step function type changes when rate cases get put forward and approved. Obviously, in the near term, some of the supply chain cost increases on our side, we've passed back in the form of price increases. But making sure that we don't eat into the core value prop that we bring to consumers of more affordable, more reliable power. And so we're able to move a bit more in markets where we price at a much larger discount to the prevailing local utility rate and probably a bit less in some places where the savings value prop is a little bit thinner.

    是的,我需要在這裡回复你一個總數,因為我們確實評估了逐個市場定價的機會,這通常與公用事業費率的上升相一致,這發生在這種多年階躍函數中當費率案例提出並獲得批准時,類型會發生變化。很明顯,在短期內,我們這邊的一些供應鏈成本增加了,我們已經以漲價的形式轉嫁回去了。但要確保我們不會蠶食我們為消費者帶來更實惠、更可靠電力的核心價值支柱。因此,我們能夠在我們以比當地現行公用事業費率大得多的折扣定價的市場中移動更多,而在某些儲蓄價值支撐稍薄的地方可能會更少。

  • As we said before, we price between 5% and 45% discount to the local utility on day 1. And so it's a pretty broad range there. But we think we continue to have a lot of pricing power as we see further cost increases from the supply chain. We think we've got a lot of ability to offset that through price increases. The backdrop of utility rates continuing to rise at faster and faster clips now. Many instances of high single-digit and even low double-digit proposed rate cases before public utility commissions provides a great opportunity for us to continue to grow our business and grow margins while also delivering more value for consumers.

    正如我們之前所說,我們在第一天給當地公用事業公司定價 5% 到 45% 的折扣。所以那裡的價格範圍很廣。但我們認為,隨著供應鏈成本的進一步增加,我們仍然擁有很大的定價權。我們認為我們有很大的能力通過價格上漲來抵消這一點。現在公用事業費率繼續以越來越快的速度上升的背景。在公用事業委員會之前,許多高個位數甚至低兩位數的擬議費率案例為我們提供了一個很好的機會,可以繼續發展我們的業務和提高利潤率,同時也為消費者創造更多價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

    我們將向古根海姆合夥人的約瑟夫·奧沙提出下一個問題。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • First, I just wanted to go back to storage a little bit. I understand you may not want to speak near term to what's happening. But on the other side of some of these supply chain challenges, can you talk a little bit about what your aspirational attach rate might be?

    首先,我只是想稍微回到存儲。我知道你可能不想在短期內談論正在發生的事情。但在這些供應鏈挑戰的另一面,你能談談你的理想附加率可能是多少嗎?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • I mean we've said before that we certainly think over the long run, nearly every customer has storage. We think today with where the economics of that product are and the economics of solar relative to utility rates, you don't immediately get there. We have markets though, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, where we're at 100% attached, other places where we're certainly well north of 50%. As battery costs come down, which we've got a lot of insight from our partnerships and just views in the supply chain that costs will come down pretty dramatically over the medium term, that's going to push more and more consumers to consider adding storage. I think as they also move more customers to time of use rates and more whole home electrification occurs, larger system sizes, there's just much more of an incentive for customers to add batteries here to a whole solution. And so we continue to see strong consumer demand now in spite of some of the supply chain tightness, we're able to build that backlog of orders for batteries and are excited to get on the other side of the current supply chain situation.

    我的意思是我們之前說過,我們當然認為從長遠來看,幾乎每個客戶都有存儲空間。我們認為今天該產品的經濟性以及太陽能相對於公用事業費率的經濟性,您不會立即到達那裡。不過,我們有市場,夏威夷、波多黎各,我們 100% 依附於這些市場,在其他地方,我們肯定遠遠超過 50%。隨著電池成本的下降,我們從我們的合作夥伴關係中獲得了很多洞察力,並且僅認為供應鏈中的成本將在中期內大幅下降,這將推動越來越多的消費者考慮增加存儲空間。我認為,隨著他們也將更多的客戶推向使用時間率,並且出現更多的整個家庭電氣化,更大的系統尺寸,客戶在此處添加電池到整個解決方案中的動機就更大了。因此,儘管供應鏈有些緊張,但我們現在繼續看到強勁的消費者需求,我們能夠積壓電池訂單,並很高興能站在當前供應鏈形勢的另一端。

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes. And the only thing I would add to that, this is Mary, is another reason we have such an aspiration about getting to that 100% attach rate or as close as possible is that also really is, again, we're leading in the reinvention of the energy grid and through our grid services. It's really about proving out a model that is so much more not just resilient but affordable from a larger energy system perspective. So again, there's a lot of benefits to driving up that attachment rate. And again, as Tom hit already, but the resilience one is really not to be underestimated. It's proven so valuable for our customers all over the country as climatic events have flattened their communities.

    是的。我唯一要補充的是,這是瑪麗,這是我們渴望達到或盡可能接近 100% 附加率的另一個原因,這也是我們在再發明方面處於領先地位的另一個原因能源網和通過我們的電網服務。這實際上是要證明一個模型不僅具有彈性,而且從更大的能源系統的角度來看是負擔得起的。再一次,提高這種依戀率有很多好處。再一次,正如湯姆已經擊中的那樣,但韌性確實不容小覷。事實證明,由於氣候事件使他們的社區變得平坦,這對我們全國各地的客戶來說非常有價值。

  • Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

    Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst

  • Okay. We'll get a next year number out of you at some point. And then just a unrelated question, Ed, probably for you. What happens if we get cash pay, especially for individuals? How does that impact the lease in the PPA market?

    好的。我們會在某個時候從你那裡得到一個明年的數字。然後只是一個不相關的問題,Ed,可能是給你的。如果我們獲得現金工資會發生什麼,尤其是對個人而言?這對 PPA 市場的租賃有何影響?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • I was frankly very surprised how hard certain people in the market lobbied for cash pay for individuals. I really don't think that's going to make a difference between the leasing product and the loans that are currently available and the fact that you can carry credits forward. Like I just -- I really struggle to think that would make a big difference. I think the largest impact of cash pay on the corporate side is likely that we might expand the types of customers or credit profiles that we're able to service. And then also so far still in the bill on the corporate on the Section 48 side is a 10% tax credit adder for homes in certain census tracks, which is a material chunk of our business and 20% for low to moderate income multifamily, which we also have a business in. So there are a lot of interesting things at work potentially in this bill that make us quite excited about it.

    坦率地說,我非常驚訝市場上某些人遊說個人現金支付的難度。我真的不認為這會對租賃產品和當前可用的貸款以及您可以結轉信貸這一事實產生影響。就像我一樣——我真的很難認為這會產生很大的不同。我認為現金支付對企業的最大影響可能是我們可能會擴大我們能夠服務的客戶類型或信用狀況。到目前為止,在第 48 節方面的公司法案中仍然是對某些人口普查軌道中的房屋徵收 10% 的稅收抵免,這是我們業務的重要組成部分,對中低收入多戶家庭徵收 20%,其中我們也有業務。因此,該法案中可能有很多有趣的事情在起作用,這讓我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

  • Aric Jiang Li - Research Analyst

    Aric Jiang Li - Research Analyst

  • This is Aric on for Julien. Just on storage really quickly. I know you reaffirmed full year '21 guide, but given the constraints you discussed driving lower-than-expected storage deployments for 2021, can you just discuss your strategy in overcoming those hurdles for 2022? Is that predominantly just adding additional equipment suppliers? Or how do you think about that?

    這是朱利安的阿里克。只是在存儲上真的很快。我知道您重申了 21 年全年指南,但鑑於您討論的 2021 年存儲部署低於預期的限制,您能否討論一下您在 2022 年克服這些障礙的策略?這主要是增加額外的設備供應商嗎?或者你怎麼看?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes. I think it's a few different factors. One, as Mary mentioned, we added a new supplier into the mix just recently. So that certainly helps expand access to product and diversify that supply chain. I think some of the challenges in the very short run are just around logistics and port constraints and the like. Some of that is the thing that we expect to alleviate. And then as more suppliers come online, as everyone continues to ramp production, we expect that will catch up to the strong consumer demand that we've seen for the product. So I think it's a mix of things within our own control that we're moving on also continuing to build the backlog. So just because we are tight on supply today doesn't mean that we forgo a customer order that we think we can fulfill next year, and we see that ramping. And so that gives us a lot of confidence in the outlook in the year ahead.

    是的。我認為這是幾個不同的因素。其一,正如 Mary 所提到的,我們最近在組合中增加了一個新的供應商。因此,這肯定有助於擴大產品的獲取渠道並使供應鏈多樣化。我認為短期內的一些挑戰只是圍繞物流和港口限制等。其中一些是我們希望緩解的事情。然後隨著越來越多的供應商上線,隨著每個人繼續提高產量,我們預計這將趕上我們看到的對該產品的強勁消費者需求。所以我認為這是我們自己控制範圍內的各種事情,我們正在繼續前進,同時繼續建立積壓工作。因此,僅僅因為我們今天的供應緊張並不意味著我們放棄了我們認為明年可以完成的客戶訂單,而且我們看到了這種增長。這讓我們對未來一年的前景充滿信心。

  • Aric Jiang Li - Research Analyst

    Aric Jiang Li - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And just a quick follow-up on the Smart Panel partnership with SPAN. Is that incremental cost of the Smart Electric panel on the features that are being added from that being priced into the customer PPA? Or is that just a cost that borne by yourselves to drive future upsell value?

    知道了。并快速跟進與 SPAN 的 Smart Panel 合作夥伴關係。 Smart Electric 面板的增量成本是從定價到客戶 PPA 中添加的功能嗎?或者這只是您自己為推動未來追加銷售價值而承擔的成本?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • We have a decent number of customers as we go out and think about putting in a battery where we're already doing a main panel replacement. And so the incremental cost all in, inclusive of the product and labor, depending upon the home and the installation job we're doing is modest in some cases, yes, it's an incremental set of features for the customer, and we think it's got great value. It's a solid product that we do think customers would be willing to pay up for. And so early days on that partnership and expanding where we are. But we do a decent number of main panel upgrades today as is. And so this is swapping out some of that work for the SPAN product.

    當我們出去考慮在我們已經在更換主板的地方安裝電池時,我們有相當多的客戶。因此,包括產品和人工在內的所有增量成本,取決於家庭和我們正在做的安裝工作,在某些情況下是適度的,是的,它是為客戶提供的一組增量功能,我們認為它有巨大的價值。這是一款可靠的產品,我們確實認為客戶願意為此付費。如此早期的合作夥伴關係並擴大我們的地位。但我們今天做了相當多的主面板升級。因此,這是為 SPAN 產品交換了一些工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

    我們將向 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler 提出下一個問題。

  • Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

    Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

  • So my first one is on the 2022 cash generated commentary. Tom, perhaps this is maybe too simplistic of a way to think about it. But over the medium term, would you expect your cash generation to more or less grow in line with your megawatts moving forward?

    所以我的第一個是關於 2022 年現金產生的評論。湯姆,也許這可能是一種過於簡單化的思考方式。但在中期內,您是否期望您的現金產生或多或少與您的兆瓦數保持一致?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Yes. So this is Ed. And maybe Tom wants to add something, too. So by and large, before considering the effects of working capital, you would expect free cash flow to grow as fast or maybe slightly faster than megawatt growth. Against that, obviously, you have -- we have to measure the increases in working capital that come from our building of large development pipeline of customers who are awaiting installation and then also the fact that our financial transactions, which deliver the amount of proceeds that create a cash flow positive outcome happen periodically. And so you might see variation in cash flow quarter-to-quarter based on the timing of those transactions.

    是的。這就是埃德。也許湯姆也想添加一些東西。因此,總的來說,在考慮營運資金的影響之前,您會期望自由現金流的增長速度與兆瓦級增長一樣快,甚至可能略快一些。與此相反,顯然,您有 - 我們必須衡量來自我們建立等待安裝的客戶的大型開發管道所帶來的營運資金的增加,以及我們的金融交易帶來的收益金額這一事實創造現金流的積極成果會定期發生。因此,您可能會看到基於這些交易時間的現金流季度變化。

  • Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

    Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst

  • And you -- actually, you gave me a great segue into my second question, which is actually around working capital. So maybe you indirectly answered this already, but working capital has been quite elevated or the use of capital has been quite elevated this year. Is -- would this be a good indication of a good -- of how to think about a good run rate? Or are things just a bit unique this year given the challenging supply chain environment? And then if this year is not indicative of how things are going to be moving forward, do you have any good rule of thumbs for us to think about?

    而你——實際上,你對我的第二個問題給出了很好的解釋,這實際上是關於營運資金的。所以也許你已經間接回答了這個問題,但是今年營運資金已經相當高,或者資金的使用已經相當高。是 - 這是否是一個好的跡象 - 如何考慮良好的運行率?或者考慮到充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境,今年的情況是否有點獨特?如果今年不能說明事情將如何發展,你有什麼好的經驗法則供我們思考嗎?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • So I think it's worth breaking the working capital component into sort of 2 parts here in my mind. The first is the supply chain side of this. And this year has been a bit anomalous there where as we came into the year, we saw some of the early supply chain disruptions and have buffered inventory accordingly. We have inventory financing capabilities behind that, and so that doesn't create a massive drag. But we are definitely at elevated inventory levels versus where we would expect to be in the long run. I think we'll probably carry high inventory into the first half of next year and for a little bit there. And then the second part of that is the effective working capital drag created through what Ed referenced on the financing side as a project gets built and put into a warehouse facility and then ultimately termed out, the lumpiness of cash flows there with respect to new originations can be quite meaningful quarter-to-quarter. But I would say this year's inventory build has been more extreme than you would view relative to a megawatt growth going forward.

    所以我認為在我看來,將營運資金部分分成兩部分是值得的。首先是供應鏈方面。今年有點反常,當我們進入這一年時,我們看到了一些早期的供應鏈中斷,並相應地緩衝了庫存。我們擁有這背後的庫存融資能力,因此不會造成巨大的拖累。但與我們預期的長期庫存水平相比,我們肯定處於較高的庫存水平。我認為我們可能會將高庫存帶入明年上半年,並且會持續一段時間。然後第二部分是通過 Ed 在融資方面所引用的項目建成並投入倉庫設施,然後最終被淘汰,產生的有效營運資金拖累,那裡的現金流相對於新的起源季度到季度可能非常有意義。但我想說,相對於未來的兆瓦級增長,今年的庫存增長比你想像的要極端得多。

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • The only other factor I would chime in there to add is that to the extent that sales growth outpaces installation growth, there's a working capital investment there in as much as your marketing and sales and permitting costs, et cetera, front run year term out. So those are sort of the 3 things that we keep in mind, the supply chain situation, the financing term out schedule. And just then the kind of the regular breathing of the backlog as it grows or shrinks based on the relative speed of sales and installations.

    我要補充的唯一其他因素是,在銷售增長超過安裝增長的範圍內,那裡的營運資本投資與您的營銷、銷售和許可成本一樣多,等等,提前一年到期。所以這些是我們牢記的三件事,供應鏈情況,融資期限。就在那時,隨著銷售和安裝的相對速度而增長或縮小,積壓的定期呼吸。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from David Peters with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 David Peters。

  • David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

    David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

  • Mary, I think in your prepared remarks, you said you were having radical collaboration with incumbent players. And I'm just wondering if you could, one, elaborate more on that. And is it referring potentially to a partnership with a local utility?

    瑪麗,我認為在你準備好的發言中,你說過你正在與現有玩家進行激進的合作。我只是想知道你是否可以,一個,詳細說明一下。它是否潛在地指的是與當地公用事業公司的合作夥伴關係?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I think what I referenced -- nice to chat with you. I think what I referenced was now is the time for radical collaboration without a shadow of a doubt. Really, the services we provide are so complementary to creating a more affordable and resilient grid for all. So yes, we have a bunch of grid services contracts already, as you know. And yes, for sure, I have started conversations with a number of utilities that are looking at the future and seeing opportunity around greater partnership. So yes, that is underway and happening.

    是的。所以我想我提到的——很高興和你聊天。我認為我現在提到的是毫無疑問進行激進合作的時候。確實,我們提供的服務與為所有人創建一個更實惠、更具彈性的電網非常互補。所以,是的,如您所知,我們已經有一堆網格服務合同。是的,可以肯定的是,我已經開始與許多著眼於未來並看到圍繞更大合作夥伴關係的機會的公用事業公司進行對話。所以是的,這正在發生並且正在發生。

  • David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

    David Christian Peters - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then just curious on the net subscriber value as we move into Q4. Just thinking of the issues that hit Q2 and obviously, to a lesser degree, Q3, should we think these are kind of largely gone at this point? And I guess kind of along that vein, how much of the synergies from the Vivint acquisition do you still have left to go?

    偉大的。然後在我們進入第四季度時對淨訂戶價值感到好奇。想想第二季度的問題,顯然,在較小程度上,第三季度,我們是否應該認為這些在這一點上已經基本消失了?而且我想大概是這樣,收購 Vivint 所產生的協同效應還有多少?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Yes. So we do expect net subscriber values to continue to improve from Q3 to Q4 as we work through a number of issues. I think as you see from the results and if you look at really kind of the comparison to Q1 almost that Q2, as we said at the time, very anomalous in terms of sales growth dramatically outpacing installation growth and having a lot more construction and progress in that period. We worked through a lot of those issues here in Q3. Q4, early portion of the quarter, we may still continue to see strong sales. I think you'll -- the Q1 normal sort of downward trend in seasonality is where you get some of that relief in terms of sales and installs flipping in the other direction. So that will go away. But we're working hard to make sure that we drive sales capacity and installation capacity much closer to in-line while making sure we don't forgo the ability to acquire customers and build a bit of backlog as we enter into the next year. So a bit of balance there.

    是的。因此,隨著我們解決許多問題,我們確實預計淨訂戶價值將從第三季度到第四季度繼續改善。我認為正如你從結果中看到的那樣,如果你看一下與第一季度的比較,就像我們當時所說的那樣,在銷售增長方面非常反常,大大超過了安裝增長,並且有更多的建設和進展在那個時期。我們在第三季度解決了很多這些問題。第四季度,本季度初,我們可能仍會繼續看到強勁的銷售。我想你會 - 第一季度正常的季節性下降趨勢是你在銷售和安裝方面得到一些緩解的地方。所以那會消失。但我們正在努力確保我們推動銷售能力和安裝能力更接近在線,同時確保我們在進入明年時不會放棄獲得客戶和積壓的能力。所以那裡有點平衡。

  • On the integration side of things, we're making really good progress, continue to be on track for the $120 million exit in the year. We've gotten through a lot of the final technology and system cutover efforts in the recent quarter, which begins to unlock more of the synergies. We've definitely harvested a good chunk and have been able to reinvest in our business accordingly in a number of areas, but still a bit more that will be delivered here in Q4 that will result in growth in net subscriber values as well.

    在整合方面,我們取得了非常好的進展,繼續朝著今年 1.2 億美元的退出軌道前進。在最近一個季度,我們已經完成了許多最終的技術和系統轉換工作,這開始釋放更多的協同效應。我們確實收穫了很大一部分,並且能夠在許多領域對我們的業務進行相應的再投資,但在第四季度仍將交付更多,這也將導致淨用戶價值的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

    我們將回答 Colin Rusch 和 Oppenheimer 的下一個問題。

  • Joseph Mark Beninati - Associate

    Joseph Mark Beninati - Associate

  • It's Joe on for Colin. Appreciate all the color tonight on energy storage. Can you share a little bit of detail on the density of capacity you feel like you would need in a given geography to offer virtual power plant services?

    喬為科林加油。欣賞今晚關於儲能的所有色彩。您能否分享一些關於您認為在給定地理位置提供虛擬電廠服務所需的容量密度的一些細節?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Well, this is Ed. So I actually feel like in most all jurisdictions where virtual power plants are useful, which is easily 80% or more of our service territories, were already there. And that will grow quickly over time through 2 factors. First, the kilowatt hours per battery installation are and will grow over time, especially as battery prices come down. And then two, as we begin to roll in electric vehicles, the numbers scale very significantly. Just as 1 example, if you had 3 million electric vehicles interconnected to the grid in the state of California and each of them dispatched half their battery, you'd eliminate all fossil fuel use in the state between 6:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. to midnight. So the scale of the potential solution from DG is vast. And we are excited to be able to partner with grid operators and utilities to create a low-cost solution to the energy storage problem.

    嗯,這是埃德。所以我實際上覺得在虛擬發電廠有用的大多數司法管轄區,很容易在我們的服務區域中佔 80% 或更多,已經存在。隨著時間的推移,這將通過兩個因素迅速增長。首先,每次安裝電池的千瓦時數會隨著時間的推移而增長,尤其是隨著電池價格的下降。然後是兩個,當我們開始推出電動汽車時,這些數字會顯著增加。舉個例子,如果你在加利福尼亞州有 300 萬輛電動汽車與電網互聯,每輛電動汽車都用了一半的電池,你就會在下午 6:00 之間消除該州所有化石燃料的使用。和晚上 11:00到午夜。因此,DG 潛在解決方案的規模是巨大的。我們很高興能夠與電網運營商和公用事業公司合作,為儲能問題創建一個低成本的解決方案。

  • Joseph Mark Beninati - Associate

    Joseph Mark Beninati - Associate

  • Really exciting. Switching gears a little bit. Can you give an update on the pace of permitting and any progress you all are having on automated permitting processes?

    真讓人激動。稍微切換一下檔位。您能否提供有關許可步伐的最新信息以及你們在自動許可流程方面的任何進展?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Pace of permitting is never as fast as you'd like. It goes better than my own personal construction projects, but we're working on it. Certainly, we are encouraged though on the SolarAPP side. More and more locations are beginning to adopt it. And the DOE has now, I think, quintupled the funding behind it. So it's a little bit of an IT integration challenge with the local municipalities where we need to get their IT systems integrated with SolarAPP. Obviously, we're able to focus on the jurisdictions that have the most solar throughput. So hopefully, you can make progress upfront. But I think that will be an ongoing project that pays dividends over the next 2 to 3 years.

    許可的速度永遠不會像您希望的那樣快。它比我自己的個人建設項目要好,但我們正在努力。當然,我們在 SolarAPP 方面受到鼓勵。越來越多的地方開始採用它。我認為,美國能源部現在已經將其背後的資金增加了五倍。因此,我們需要將他們的 IT 系統與 SolarAPP 集成到當地市政當局的 IT 集成挑戰中。顯然,我們能夠專注於太陽能吞吐量最大的司法管轄區。所以希望你能提前取得進展。但我認為這將是一個持續的項目,將在未來 2 到 3 年內帶來回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Philip Shen with ROTH Capital.

    我們將向 ROTH Capital 的 Philip Shen 提出下一個問題。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I know you haven't provided official guidance for '22, But I was wondering if you could provide some color on what '22 growth could look like versus '21's 30% year-over-year growth. Mary, you said in your release that '22 could be another breakout year. So would that suggest that your growth could come in higher than '21? Or are you referring to the magnitude of megawatts?

    我知道你沒有為 22 年提供官方指導,但我想知道你是否可以提供一些顏色來說明 22 年的增長與 21 年 30% 的同比增長。瑪麗,你在新聞稿中說 22 年可能是另一個突破性的一年。那麼這是否表明您的增長可能會高於 21 年?還是您指的是兆瓦的數量級?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's going to be higher than market. That's the bottom line.

    是的,它會高於市場。這是底線。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Can you share what you expect market to be?

    你能分享一下你對市場的期望嗎?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • I think what we're trying to say, Phil, is we can model market, other people can model market. And there are going to be a lot of puts and takes nationally and locally in policy and capital costs and all sorts of things. What we're confident in is that the capabilities that we have as an organization both as a direct originator of systems and also through our channel are superior on average to market and therefore, will allow us to outgrow the market and are confident in that fact.

    我想我們想說的是,菲爾,我們可以模擬市場,其他人也可以模擬市場。在政策和資本成本以及各種事情上,國家和地方都會有很多投入和投入。我們有信心的是,作為一個組織,我們作為系統的直接發起者以及通過我們的渠道所擁有的能力平均優於市場,因此,將使我們能夠超越市場並對這一事實充滿信心.

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • 100%.

    100%。

  • Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. As it relates to subscriber value, it looks like it's going to come in better in Q4. Can you talk through how you expect subscriber value per customer to trend by quarter in '22?

    好的。由於它與訂戶價值有關,它看起來在第四季度會更好。您能否談談您期望每位客戶的訂戶價值在 22 年每個季度的趨勢如何?

  • Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

    Thomas Arthur VonReichbauer - CFO

  • Not at this time, consistent with what everyone just said here. As we wrap up the year and come back on the Q4 call in February, we'll have all the details underlying our view next year. But as Ed highlighted, we got through the integration this year. We've built out a lot of strong capabilities. I think, operationally, brand strength, customer awareness, making good inroads in a number of newer and emerging channels for us set us up for really strong growth and margins in the year ahead. But we'll come out with those details when we provide the full annual outlook in February.

    不是在這個時候,和大家剛才在這裡說的一致。當我們結束這一年並在 2 月份再次召開第四季度電話會議時,我們將在明年了解我們觀點的所有細節。但正如 Ed 強調的那樣,我們今年完成了整合。我們已經建立了很多強大的能力。我認為,在運營方面,品牌實力、客戶意識、在許多新興渠道中取得良好進展,為我們在來年實現真正強勁的增長和利潤率奠定了基礎。但是,當我們在 2 月份提供完整的年度展望時,我們會提供這些細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.

    我們將向瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi 提出下一個問題。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Associate

    Maheep Mandloi - Associate

  • Ed, maybe something for you. In the last call, we spoke about -- you spoke about potential share buybacks or changes to the reporting structure. Any update on that front or anything what you're thinking right now? Or could we expect something of that on the next call?

    埃德,也許適合你。在上次電話會議中,我們談到了 - 你談到了潛在的股票回購或報告結構的變化。這方面的任何更新或你現在在想什麼?或者我們可以在下一次電話會議上期待這樣的事情嗎?

  • Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

    Edward Harris Fenster - Co-Founder & Executive Co-Chair of the Board

  • Great question. So the near-term focus is obviously on completing the integration and getting us well positioned for next year and potentially also just adapting to whatever benefits may come to pass in legislation between now and then. We are very encouraged with the growth opportunities that we face, both organically and on the electrification front. And I think one of the places we've always had a good reputation as a company is in capital allocation. As we continue to generate additional cash, we'll examine opportunities for capital investment, which could be to grow the business or our capabilities or it could be capital return to shareholders. And I think we'll probably touch on that a little bit more as we give the full year guidance next year. But it is definitely something we're increasingly thinking about as the cash balance and -- that the company has grows and as our confidence in the cash generation continues to increase.

    好問題。因此,近期的重點顯然是完成整合,讓我們為明年做好準備,並可能只是適應從現在到那時立法可能帶來的任何好處。我們對我們面臨的有機增長機會和電氣化方面的增長機會感到非常鼓舞。我認為作為一家公司,我們一直享有良好聲譽的地方之一就是資本配置。隨著我們繼續產生額外的現金,我們將研究資本投資的機會,這可能是發展業務或我們的能力,也可能是對股東的資本回報。而且我認為我們可能會在明年提供全年指導時更多地觸及這一點。但這絕對是我們越來越多地考慮現金餘額的事情,而且公司已經發展壯大,而且我們對現金產生的信心不斷增強。

  • Maheep Mandloi - Associate

    Maheep Mandloi - Associate

  • Got you. Now I look forward to the more details on the next call on that. And then, Mary, maybe something for you. I think it's almost been a quarter since you joined, we've been stalking you on LinkedIn and seeing all the updates you put on meeting a lot of folks across the company. So after this kind of the story if you will of the U.S., do you plan any changes? Or what changes do you think need to happen for the industry or the solar -- residential solar industry specifically?

    得到你。現在我期待著關於下一次電話會議的更多細節。然後,瑪麗,也許給你一些東西。我想你加入已經快一個季度了,我們一直在 LinkedIn 上跟踪你,並查看你在與整個公司的很多人會面時所做的所有更新。那麼在美國這樣的故事之後,如果你願意的話,你有什麼改變嗎?或者您認為該行業或太陽能(特別是住宅太陽能行業)需要發生哪些變化?

  • Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

    Mary Grace Powell - CEO & Director

  • Well, thank you for that. Yes. I've been spending a lot of time out and about with all of our customer-facing teams and with our customers. And again, our strategy is all about becoming the beloved and being the beloved trusted partner of customers on whole home electrification and leading in the reinvention of the energy system and the grid as we know it today. So certainly, what you will see out of us is, again, really above-market growth. You're going to see us continue to focus on our obsession with customers and delivering new and innovative ways for them to strategically electrify and that is going to obviously then provide great opportunity for us as a company as well as a huge part of our focus is about how do we work with a lot of the incumbent players to really modernize the energy system and achieve those additional value streams as well. So again, you'll hear a lot more from us at the Q4 call as we talk about 2022 as well.

    嗯,謝謝你。是的。我一直在與我們所有面向客戶的團隊以及我們的客戶一起度過很多時間。再說一次,我們的戰略就是成為客戶在整個家庭電氣化方面心愛的和值得信賴的合作夥伴,並引領我們今天所知的能源系統和電網的重塑。因此,當然,您將從我們身上看到的再次是真正高於市場的增長。您將看到我們繼續專注於我們對客戶的痴迷,並為他們提供新的和創新的方式來實現戰略性電氣化,這顯然將為我們作為一家公司提供巨大的機會以及我們關注的很大一部分是關於我們如何與許多現有參與者合作,以真正實現能源系統的現代化並實現這些額外的價值流。同樣,在我們談論 2022 年時,您會在第四季度電話會議上聽到更多來自我們的消息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our question-and-answer session time for today. And this does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a great day.

    今天的問答環節到此結束。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路,並度過美好的一天。