Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sunrun 投資者關係高級副總裁 Patrick Jobin。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements. Please also note, these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

謝謝你，接線生。在我們開始之前，請注意，我們將在本次電話會議中發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大和不利的差異。請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。另請注意，這些聲明是從今天起發布的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

During today's call, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe can provide meaningful supplemental information for investors regarding the performance of our business and facilitate a meaningful evaluation of current period performance on a comparable basis with prior periods. These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for or in isolation from GAAP results. You will find additional disclosures regarding non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our press release issued this afternoon and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our website.

在今天的電話會議上，我們還將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們相信這些指標可以為投資者提供有關我們業務業績的有意義的補充信息，並有助於在與前期可比的基礎上對本期業績進行有意義的評估。這些非公認會計原則財務指標應被視為對公認會計原則結果的補充，而不是替代或孤立於公認會計原則結果。您可以在我們今天下午發布的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中找到有關今天電話會議中討論的非公認會計準則財務措施的更多披露信息，每份文件均發佈在我們的網站上。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; and Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO. Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chair; along with Paul Dickson, Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer, are also on the call for the Q&A session.

今天參加電話會議的是 Sunrun 執行長 Mary Powell；以及 Sunrun 財務長 Danny Abajian。 Sunrun 聯合創辦人兼共同執行主席 Ed Fenster； Sunrun 首席營收長 Paul Dickson 也參加了問答環節。

A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcript including Q&A, will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. We have allocated 60 minutes for today's call, including the question-and-answer session.

Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了簡報以及補充資料。今天電話會議的音訊重播以及今天準備好的言論和文字記錄（包括問答）將在電話會議後不久發佈到 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上。我們為今天的電話會議分配了 60 分鐘時間，包括問答環節。

And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

現在讓我把電話轉給瑪莉。

Thank you, Patrick, and thank you all for joining us on our call. We have a lot of exciting things to talk about today. First, our team delivered on our storage-first and margin-focused strategy in 2023. In the fourth quarter, we far exceeded our storage capacity installation guidance and landed in our guidance range on installed solar capacity.

謝謝你，派崔克，也謝謝大家加入我們的電話會議。今天我們有很多令人興奮的事情要談。首先，我們的團隊在 2023 年實施了儲存優先、以利潤為中心的策略。第四季度，我們遠遠超出了儲存容量安裝指導，並落在了太陽能裝置容量指導範圍內。

This transition to higher-value subscription offerings resulted in significant increases to our subscriber values, up 7% from Q3 and 18% year-over-year. And in combination with continued cost discipline, net subscriber values also exceeded our guidance. We generated $11 million in cash in the quarter and grew net earning assets to over $5 billion. We now operate a fleet of more than 1.3 gigawatt hours of storage capacity and near 7 gigawatts of solar capacity with over 933,000 customers. We remain focused on driving meaningful cash generation in the business and are reiterating our strong cash generation outlook for the year.

向更高價值訂閱服務的轉變導致我們的訂閱者價值顯著增加，比第三季度增長 7%，同比增長 18%。結合持續的成本控制，淨用戶價值也超出了我們的指導。本季我們產生了 1,100 萬美元現金，淨利資產成長至超過 50 億美元。目前，我們擁有超過 1.3 吉瓦時的儲存容量和近 7 吉瓦的太陽能容量，擁有超過 933,000 名客戶。我們仍然專注於推動業務中有意義的現金生成，並重申我們今年強勁的現金生成前景。

The fundamental demand drivers of our business continue to be robust. First, utility rates continue to rise due to the stress and strain of climatic events on the grid and the massive utility capital expenditures. Second, solar and storage equipment costs are declining, while our installed labor productivity continues to improve. Third, capital costs have stabilized and could decline. Finally, customers remain eager for clean, affordable and resilient energy to power their lives.

我們業務的基本需求驅動因素仍然強勁。首先，由於氣候事件對電網的壓力和龐大的公用事業資本支出，公用事業費率持續上升。其次，太陽能和儲存設備成本正在下降，而我們的安裝勞動生產力不斷提高。第三，資本成本已經穩定並可能下降。最後，客戶仍然渴望清潔、負擔得起且有彈性的能源來為他們的生活提供動力。

We are extending our differentiation by making clean, affordable and reliable energy accessible to families across America with the most pro consumer offerings and delivering the best customer experience and service in the industry. Being the chosen trusted provider to deliver this clean energy future is critical. As a testament to our customer-first approach, our customer Net Promoter Scores at the time of installation continued to increase, reaching 73 points in Q4.

我們透過提供最專業的消費者產品以及業界最佳的客戶體驗和服務，為美國各地的家庭提供清潔、實惠且可靠的能源，從而擴大我們的差異化優勢。成為被選擇的值得信賴的供應商來實現清潔能源的未來至關重要。作為我們客戶至上理念的證明，我們的客戶在安裝時的淨推薦值持續增加，在第四季度達到了 73 分。

I am pleased to report that our volume trend is strong. Q1 sales are growing 23% compared to Q4, led by California, where sales are growing at over 40% sequentially. We believe this sales growth will flow through to installations over the coming quarter, leading to a sharp uptick in Q2.

我很高興地報告，我們的銷售趨勢強勁。與第四季度相比，第一季銷售額成長了 23%，其中加州的銷售額較上季成長超過 40%。我們相信，這種銷售成長將轉化為下一季的安裝量，從而導致第二季的大幅成長。

Q1 is seasonally a low installation quarter and typically declines from Q4. Results in Q1 will be influenced by the slower-than-expected recovery in California last year and our strategic decision to exit certain unprofitable markets as we discussed on the last call.

第一季是季節性安裝量較低的季度，通常較第四季有所下降。第一季的業績將受到去年加州復甦速度慢於預期以及我們在上次電話會議中討論的退出某些無利可圖市場的戰略決定的影響。

Most important, we continue to increase the mix of storage. We installed 220 megawatt hours of storage capacity in Q4, growing 154% compared to the prior year and 25% from the prior quarter. Our storage offerings provide customers enhanced value and generate significantly higher margins for Sunrun. At the same time, they are the foundation for future monetization by providing at-scale distributed power plant capabilities. Our storage attachment rate was over 45% of installations across the country in the fourth quarter, up from 33% last quarter and 15% at the beginning of the year. And this number continues to rise with new sales.

最重要的是，我們繼續增加儲存組合。第四季我們安裝了 220 兆瓦時的儲存容量，年增 154%，季增 25%。我們的儲存產品為客戶提供了更高的價值，並為 Sunrun 帶來了顯著更高的利潤。同時，它們透過提供大規模分散式發電廠能力，成為未來貨幣化的基礎。第四季度，我們的儲存附加率佔全國安裝量的 45% 以上，高於上季的 33% 和年初的 15%。隨著新銷量的增加，這個數字還在持續上升。

We remain disciplined in how we participate through the affiliate channel. We value our partners that are focused on customer experience and that value our brand, platform, storage-first product suite and sustainable pricing model. There are pockets of irrational behavior in the affiliate partner segment of the market with several financing-only participants scaling with pricing that we consider unattractive.

我們在透過聯盟行銷管道參與的方式上保持嚴格。我們重視那些專注於客戶體驗、重視我們的品牌、平台、儲存優先的產品套件和永續定價模式的合作夥伴。市場的聯盟夥伴部分存在一些非理性行為，一些僅提供融資的參與者以我們認為不具吸引力的定價進行擴張。

Our decision not to compete for such business can influence short-term affiliate channel volumes. We've seen this behavior several times in the company's nearly 2-decade history and won't chase volumes at economics that we do not view as sustainable. We believe our diversified market approach, which includes an integrated sales force and fulfillment capacity, provides insulation from these behaviors from financing-only firms and is a strategic benefit to Sunrun.

我們決定不競爭此類業務可能會影響短期聯屬管道數量。在公司近 20 年的歷史中，我們已經多次看到這種行為，並且不會在我們認為不可持續的經濟上追逐銷售。我們相信，我們的多元化市場方法（包括整合的銷售團隊和履行能力）可以避免純融資公司的這些行為，並且對 Sunrun 來說是一項策略性利益。

I am excited to announce today that we have selected Lowe's as our home improvement retail partner. Lowe's presents a new and exciting partner, one that has a great homeowner-focused model that overlaps with our target markets and geographies. With many years of experience reaching customers through retail activities, we thoughtfully evaluate opportunities and are excited about our Lowe's partnership. We launched in Lowe's on Friday -- on February 16, transitioning our sales staff out of Home Depot the prior day. We are incredibly encouraged by the results so far.

我今天很高興地宣布，我們已選擇 Lowe's 作為我們的家居裝修零售合作夥伴。 Lowe's 推出了一個令人興奮的新合作夥伴，該合作夥伴擁有以房主為中心的卓越模式，與我們的目標市場和地區重疊。憑藉多年透過零售活動接觸客戶的經驗，我們深思熟慮地評估機會，並對我們與 Lowe's 的合作夥伴關係感到興奮。我們於 2 月 16 日星期五在 Lowe's 推出了產品，並在前一天將我們的銷售人員從 Home Depot 調離。迄今為止的成果讓我們深受鼓舞。

Over the last few months, we advanced several strategic priorities, including launching an early renewal pilot and commencing storage retrofit installations for existing customers. I believe one of Sunrun's most underappreciated assets is the base of customers that we will serve for decades and the numerous opportunities we have to provide valuable products and services beyond our initial subscription agreement. As the trusted company who has built strong relationships with customers from the initial sales consultation to the installation and ongoing service, we are in an enviable position to be able to offer and realize value from additional products and services at many touch points throughout the customer life cycle.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們推進了多項策略重點，包括啟動早期更新試點以及開始為現有客戶進行儲存改造安裝。我相信 Sunrun 最被低估的資產之一是我們將服務數十年的客戶群，以及我們在最初訂閱協議之外提供有價值的產品和服務的眾多機會。作為值得信賴的公司，從最初的銷售諮詢到安裝和持續服務，我們與客戶建立了牢固的關係，我們處於令人羨慕的地位，能夠在整個客戶生命週期的許多接觸點提供附加產品和服務並實現價值循環。

Our early renewal pilot highlights most customers are interested in extending the length of their subscription agreement even well before they expire. While the pilot only targets several hundred customers, thus far, approximately 3/4 are eager to renew their contracts for 5 years at their current pricing and agreement terms or are in the process of evaluating proposals. Nearly all of those that have renewed did so an average of 5 years before the end of their initial contract to lock in the peace of mind and energy savings provided by their current subscription service.

我們的早期續約試點強調，大多數客戶甚至在訂閱協議到期之前就有興趣延長其訂閱協議的期限。雖然該試點項目僅針對數百名客戶，但到目前為止，大約 3/4 的客戶渴望按照當前的定價和協議條款續簽 5 年合同，或者正在評估提案。幾乎所有續約者平均在初始合約結束前 5 年續約，以確保當前訂閱服務帶來的安心和節能。

Only about 1/4 of customers opted not to renew early at our first attempt of presenting the offer. However, about half of these customers have expressed interest to buy the system outright, explore upsizing their systems with Sunrun with new equipment or expressed that they might be moving. All of these scenarios provide incremental margin opportunities for Sunrun.

當我們第一次嘗試提供優惠時，只有約 1/4 的客戶選擇不提前續約。然而，大約一半的客戶表示有興趣直接購買該系統，探索使用新設備透過 Sunrun 擴大其係統的規模，或表示他們可能會搬遷。所有這些情境都為 Sunrun 提供了增量利潤機會。

Customers are also eager for our battery retrofit offering. While it's still early days and only available in select markets, orders have been growing rapidly, and customer interest is high. Sunrun is uniquely positioned to see significantly better total lifetime customer value realization than financing-only providers who do not develop the strong relationships we do with customers through the sales and installation and ongoing service we provide. While we are only targeting several hundred customers, we are pursuing the pilot to optimize sales strategies, systems and processes to tackle these opportunities at scale in the years ahead.

客戶也渴望我們的電池改造產品。雖然它仍處於早期階段，並且僅在特定市場提供，但訂單一直在快速增長，並且客戶興趣很高。 Sunrun 擁有獨特的優勢，與僅提供融資的供應商相比，Sunrun 能夠實現更好的總生命週期客戶價值，後者無法透過我們提供的銷售、安裝和持續服務與客戶建立牢固的關係。雖然我們只針對數百名客戶，但我們正在尋求試點來優化銷售策略、系統和流程，以在未來幾年大規模抓住這些機會。

Shifting gears, I want to highlight our thoughtful and disciplined approach to funding Sunrun's growth and generating value for our investors before Danny covers it in more detail. We ended 2023 with more total cash than recourse debt, and we generated cash in both Q3 and Q4.

在丹尼更詳細地介紹之前，我想強調我們為 Sunrun 的發展提供資金並為投資者創造價值的深思熟慮和嚴格的方法。截至 2023 年末，我們的現金總額超過了追索債務，並且我們在第三季和第四季都產生了現金。

During Q1, we executed numerous capital transactions that are aligned with our disciplined capital strategy and approach. First, we expanded our $1.8 billion nonrecourse senior warehouse facility by $550 million to $2.35 billion and extended the maturity date by approximately 3 years from 2025 to 2028.

在第一季度，我們執行了大量符合我們嚴格的資本策略和方法的資本交易。首先，我們將 18 億美元的無追索權高級倉庫設施擴大了 5.5 億美元，達到 23.5 億美元，並將到期日從 2025 年延長了約 3 年至 2028 年。

Second, we extended the maturity of our recourse working capital facility from January 2025 to November 2025 with a provision to extend the maturity further to 2027, subject to meeting certain conditions. The terms of the extended facility are consistent with our objective to generate cash, extend maturities at a time some of our competitors are at risk, reduce recourse leverage and optimize our cost of capital, all to drive increased shareholder value.

其次，我們將追索性營運資金便利的期限從 2025 年 1 月延長至 2025 年 11 月，並規定在滿足某些條件的情況下將期限進一步延長至 2027 年。延期貸款的條款符合我們的目標，即產生現金、在我們的一些競爭對手面臨風險時延長期限、降低追索槓桿並優化我們的資本成本，所有這些都是為了提高股東價值。

Third, we continue to execute tax equity funds and term-out financings with strong terms, recently closing an approximately $470 million term-out transaction. We are proactively and prudently managing our parent debt profile and funding to support growth and drive shareholder value. I am so appreciative of our finance team at Sunrun and our financial partners who share a vision to make clean energy affordable and accessible to all.

第三，我們繼續以嚴格的條款執行稅收股權基金和期限融資，最近完成了約 4.7 億美元的期限交易。我們正在積極、審慎地管理母公司的債務狀況和資金，以支持成長並提高股東價值。我非常感謝 Sunrun 的財務團隊以及我們的財務合作夥伴，他們都有共同的願景，讓所有人都能負擔得起並使用清潔能源。

Before handing the call over to Danny, I want to take a moment to celebrate our people, the heart and soul of this customer-led revolution in energy. First, thank you to our team in Bakersfield, California, who were our top-ranked install crew based on safety, storage attachment rates and customer experience this quarter. Thank you for all of your contributions and leadership at Sunrun. Second, a big shout-out to our friends at Bright Panel Solar, our top sales dealer in Puerto Rico. We are so thankful for your partnership over the years and look forward to many more to come.

在將電話轉交給丹尼之前，我想花一點時間來慶祝我們的員工，他們是這場客戶主導的能源革命的核心和靈魂。首先，感謝我們位於加州貝克斯菲爾德的團隊，根據本季度的安全性、儲存附件率和客戶體驗，他們是我們排名最高的安裝人員。感謝您對 Sunrun 的所有貢獻和領導。其次，向我們在波多黎各最大銷售經銷商 Bright Panel Solar 的朋友們表示大力的讚揚。我們非常感謝您多年來的合作，並期待未來更多的合作。

With that, let me turn the call over to Danny for our financial update.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給丹尼，以了解我們的財務最新情況。

Thank you, Mary. Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook. Our team is delivering strong volumes, leading with storage and financing our growth in an efficient and appropriate way.

謝謝你，瑪麗。今天，我將介紹我們本季的營運和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。我們的團隊正在交付強勁的產量，以高效、適當的方式在儲存和融資方面引領我們的成長。

Turning first to the results for the quarter on Slide 11. We have now installed over 90,000 solar and storage systems. We expect storage installations will grow substantially in the quarters ahead. Recent sales of storage attached systems have been approximately 48% nationally, which should continue to drive installed attachment rates higher in future periods. Our backup storage offerings carry higher margins, typically by several thousand dollars per customer.

首先看幻燈片 11 上的季度結果。我們現在已經安裝了 90,000 多個太陽能和儲存系統。我們預計儲存安裝量將在未來幾季大幅成長。最近儲存附加系統的銷售量在全國範圍內約為 48%，這將繼續推動未來時期附加安裝率的上升。我們的備份儲存產品具有更高的利潤，通常為每位客戶數千美元。

During the quarter, we installed 220 megawatt hours of storage capacity, significantly topping the high end of our guidance and reflecting an increase of 154% from the same quarter last year, bringing total network storage capacity to over 1.3 gigawatt hours. In the fourth quarter, solar energy capacity installed was approximately 227 megawatts and within our guidance range of 220 to 245 megawatts.

本季度，我們安裝了 220 兆瓦時的儲存容量，大大超出了我們指導的上限，比去年同期增長了 154%，使總網路儲存容量超過 1.3 兆瓦時。第四季度，太陽能裝置容量約為 227 兆瓦，在我們 220 至 245 兆瓦的指導範圍內。

Customer additions were approximately 30,000, including approximately 27,000 subscriber additions. Our subscription mix represented 92% of our deployments in the period, an increase from 89% last quarter and the highest level in many years. We ended 2023 with approximately 933,000 customers and 781,000 subscribers, representing 6.7 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, an increase of 18% year-over-year.

新增客戶約 30,000 名，其中新增訂戶約 27,000 名。我們的訂閱組合佔該期間部署的 92%，高於上季的 89%，達到多年來的最高水準。截至 2023 年底，我們擁有約 933,000 名客戶和 781,000 名訂戶，代表網路太陽能容量 6.7 吉瓦，年增 18%。

Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q4, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at over $1.3 billion, up 28% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.

我們的訂戶透過我們提供的清潔能源合約大多都在 20 年或 25 年以下，從而產生了可觀的經常性收入。截至第四季末，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 超過 13 億美元，比去年同期成長 28%。我們的平均合約期限剩餘近 18 年。

Turning to Slide 12. In Q4, subscriber value was approximately $50,300, and creation cost was approximately $36,900, delivering a net subscriber value of $13,445. Our Q4 subscriber value and net subscriber value now reflect a blended 33.8% investment tax credit, benefiting from the energy communities ITC adder and a portion of the systems eligible for the low-income adder.

轉向投影片 12。第四季度，訂閱者價值約為 50,300 美元，創建成本約為 36,900 美元，淨訂閱者價值為 13,445 美元。我們的第四季度用戶價值和淨用戶價值現在反映了 33.8% 的混合投資稅收抵免，受益於能源社區 ITC 加法器和符合低收入加法器條件的部分系統。

Total value generated, which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period, was $363 million in the fourth quarter. Our present value-based metrics are presented using a 6% discount rate, but our financial underwriting already accounts for our current capital costs, which is in the 7.5% area.

第四季產生的總價值為 3.63 億美元，即淨用戶價值乘以該期間新增用戶數量。我們目前基於價值的指標採用 6% 的折現率，但我們的財務核保已經考慮了我們目前的資本成本，即 7.5% 的區域。

As a reminder, to enable ease of comparison across periods, we generally do not update the discount rate frequently. Instead, we provide advanced rate ranges that reflect current interest rates, enabling investors to calculate the obtainable net cash unit margins on our deployments. In addition, we provide a pro forma net subscriber value using the capital cost observed for the quarter.

提醒一下，為了方便跨期間比較，我們一般不會頻繁地更新貼現率。相反，我們提供反映當前利率的高級利率範圍，使投資者能夠計算我們的部署中可獲得的淨現金單位利潤。此外，我們也使用本季觀察到的資本成本提供了預期淨訂戶價值。

At a 7.5% discount rate, net subscriber value was $8,447, and total value generated was $228 million. We expect additional tailwinds to net subscriber value in future periods from the following variety of factors: sequential growth in volume, higher storage attachment rates, increased realization of ITC adders and lower costs from hardware price reductions, labor efficiency and operating leverage from volume growth.

以 7.5% 的折扣率計算，淨訂戶價值為 8,447 美元，產生的總價值為 2.28 億美元。我們預計，以下各種因素將在未來一段時間內對淨用戶價值產生額外的推動作用：數量的連續增長、更高的存儲附加率、ITC 加法器的實現增加以及硬體降價帶來的成本降低、勞動力效率和數量成長所帶來的營運槓桿。

On Slide 13, we detailed the tailwinds from ITC adders and hardware costs. During the fourth quarter, we continued to recognize cash proceeds for the energy communities adder, while proceeds from the awarded low-income adders are still pending final government approval on each application, which we would expect in late Q1 or Q2. Proceeds from domestic content adders are expected to be realized in the coming quarters. Guidance on what will qualify for the domestic content adder has been issued. However, we are still awaiting additional rule-making processes sometime this year.

在投影片 13 中，我們詳細介紹了 ITC 加法器和硬體成本的推動作用。在第四季度，我們繼續確認能源社區加法者的現金收益，而獲獎的低收入加法者的收益仍在等待政府對每項申請的最終批准，我們預計將在第一季末或第二季末批准。國內內容添加商的收益預計將在未來幾季實現。關於哪些內容符合國內內容添加者資格的指南已經發布。然而，我們仍在等待今年某個時候的額外規則制定程序。

Combined, these 3 adders represent up to $450 million or more in additional annual run rate cash proceeds. We continue to see decreasing prices for key hardware components, which are gradually flowing through our reported costs as we finish consuming our higher cost inventory.

這 3 個加法者合計帶來高達 4.5 億美元或更多的額外年度運行率現金收益。我們繼續看到關鍵硬體組件的價格不斷下降，隨著我們消耗完成本較高的庫存，這些組件的價格逐漸流向我們報告的成本。

On a like-for-like basis for a 7.5 kilowatt solar with backup battery system, by the end of this year, hardware costs are expected to decline by over 18% and or nearly $2,500 per system from their peak in the second quarter of 2023. These beneficial trends may be obscured by an increasing mix of storage which carries higher net margins but will increase hardware and install costs and therefore impact creation costs.

與配備備用電池系統的 7.5 千瓦太陽能相比，到今年年底，硬體成本預計將比 2023 年第二季度的峰值下降 18% 以上，即每個系統的成本將下降近 2,500 美元這些有益的趨勢可能會被儲存組合的增加所掩蓋，儲存組合帶來更高的淨利潤，但會增加硬體和安裝成本，從而影響創建成本。

Turning to Slide 14. We have presented a pro forma net subscriber value to show the potential impact to unit margins from the forthcoming ITC adders, if fully realized, along with the hardware cost tailwinds we expect in the coming quarters. Based on our mix of business in Q4, pro forma net subscriber value with these benefits was approximately $15,300 at a 6% discount rate and $10,300 at a 7.5% discount rate.

轉向幻燈片 14。我們提出了預計的淨用戶價值，以顯示即將推出的 ITC 加法器（如果完全實現的話）對單位利潤率的潛在影響，以及我們預計在未來幾個季度的硬體成本推動因素。根據我們第四季的業務組合，預計具有這些福利的淨訂戶價值約為 15,300 美元（以 6% 折扣率計算）和 10,300 美元（以 7.5% 折扣率計算）。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet on Slide 16. Gross earning assets were $14.2 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from subscribers over time net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures and distributions to project equity financing partners, all discounted at a 6% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向投影片 16 上的總獲利資產和淨獲利資產以及我們的資產負債表。第四季末的總獲利資產為 142 億美元。總獲利資產是衡量我們預計在一段時間內從認購者收到的現金流量的淨值，扣除營運和維護成本、對稅務股權合作夥伴的分配​​、合夥企業翻轉結構以及對專案股權融資合作夥伴的分配，所有這些均以6% 的無槓桿資本成本折現。

Net earning assets were $5 billion at the end of the fourth quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Net earning assets increased by $466 million this quarter. Net earning assets does not include inventory or other construction and progress assets or net derivative assets related to our interest rate swaps, all of which represent additional value. The value creation upside we expect from future grid services opportunities and selling additional electrification products and services to our customer base, including our storage retrofit offering, are not reflected in these metrics.

第四季末淨利資產為 50 億美元。淨獲利資產是總獲利資產加上現金減去所有債務。本季淨獲利資產增加4.66億美元。淨利潤資產不包括庫存或其他建設和進度資產或與我們的利率掉期相關的淨衍生資產，所有這些都代表附加價值。我們預期未來電網服務機會以及向客戶群銷售以外的電氣化產品和服務（包括我們的儲存改造產品）所帶來的價值創造優勢並未反映在這些指標中。

We programmatically enter into interest rate hedges to insulate our capital costs from adverse near-term fluctuations. The vast majority of our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, we do not adjust the discount rate used in net earning assets to match current capital cost for new installations. We ended the quarter with $988 million in total cash, an increase of $36 million compared to the prior quarter.

我們有計劃地進行利率對沖，以使我們的資本成本免受不利的短期波動的影響。我們的絕大多數債務要么是固定息票長期證券，要么是透過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率貸款。因此，我們不會調整淨收益資產中使用的折現率來匹配新安裝的當前資本成本。本季結束時，我們的現金總額為 9.88 億美元，比上一季增加了 3,600 萬美元。

Turning to our capital markets activities. We have been incredibly active over the last few months arranging capital to support our growth and further optimize our balance sheet in ways we believe can drive considerable long-term shareholder value. We have successfully extended and upsized our nonrecourse revolving senior warehouse facility to support our scale. This facility finances assets temporarily before we raise term out financing principally in the asset-backed securitization market.

轉向我們的資本市場活動。在過去的幾個月裡，我們非常積極地安排資本來支持我們的成長，並以我們相信可以帶來可觀的長期股東價值的方式進一步優化我們的資產負債表。我們已成功擴建和擴大我們的無追索權循環高級倉庫設施，以支持我們的規模。在我們主要在資產支持證券化市場籌集期限融資之前，該工具暫時為資產提供融資。

We increased the size of the facility by $550 million from $1.8 billion to $2.35 billion and extended the maturity by approximately 3 years from April 2025 to February 2028. The effective credit spread increase of 50 basis points was commensurate with recent movement in the securitization market for term out transactions with similar advance rates. The facility continues to have a diversified set of 9 relationship lenders. We also achieved certain other improved terms that afford more flexibility to fund our anticipated future product and geographic mix.

我們將該融資規模增加了5.5 億美元，從18 億美元增至23.5 億美元，並將期限延長約3 年，從2025 年4 月延長至2028 年2 月。有效信用利差增加50 個基點，與近期證券化市場的走勢相稱。以類似的預付款率終止交易。該機構繼續擁有 9 家多元化的關係貸款機構。我們也實現了某些其他改進條款，為我們預期的未來產品和地理組合提供了更大的靈活性。

Our team also continues to execute tax equity transactions, including structures that facilitate ITC transfers to a deepening pool of large buyers. The traditional tax equity market has been tighter recently, which we believe is owing to the calendar year tax planning exercises that our partners undertake, along with the fact that many of our partners are exploring the options now available to increase the size of structures by utilizing ITC transfers. This structural rethinking can impact the timing of fund commitments. That said, our long-term track record as a sponsor and relationships which have spanned well over a decade continue to put us in a good position to arrange tax equity funding.

我們的團隊也繼續執行稅收股權交易，包括促進 ITC 轉移到不斷擴大的大型買家的結構。傳統的稅務股權市場最近變得更加緊張，我們認為這是由於我們的合作夥伴進行的歷年稅務規劃活動，以及我們的許多合作夥伴正在探索現在可用的選項，透過利用ITC 轉移。這種結構性的重新思考可能會影響基金承諾的時間安排。也就是說，我們作為贊助商的長期記錄和跨越十多年的關係繼續使我們處於安排稅收股權融資的有利地位。

As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 195 megawatts of projects or subscribers beyond what was deployed through the fourth quarter. Sunrun also had $577 million in unused commitments available in its nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loan at the end of the quarter, pro forma to reflect the subsequent upsize and amendment. This unused amount would fund approximately 211 megawatts of projects for subscribers. Our strong capital runway allows us to be selective in timing transactions.

截至今天，已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收股權能力，可以為超過第四季度部署的超過 195 兆瓦的項目或用戶提供資金。截至本季末，Sunrun 的無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款中還有 5.77 億美元未使用的承諾，預計以反映隨後的規模擴大和修訂。這筆未使用的資金將為訂戶的約 211 兆瓦項目提供資金。我們強大的資本跑道使我們能夠選擇性地選擇交易時機。

In February, we also closed an ABS transaction with a private credit investor along with arranging a subordinated financing. The $361 million nonrecourse senior debt was rated A- by Kroll and was priced with a 232.5 basis point spread. This demonstrated yet another improvement in capital costs with spreads declining from our last securitization in September that was priced with a 240 basis point spread. We placed a $109 million subordinated loan on the portfolio as well.

2 月份，我們也與一家私人信貸投資者完成了 ABS 交易，並安排了次級融資。這筆 3.61 億美元的無追索權優先債務被 Kroll 評為 A-，定價價差為 232.5 個基點。這顯示資本成本再次改善，利差較 9 月的上次證券化定價為 240 個基點利差下降。我們還在投資組合中放置了 1.09 億美元的次級貸款。

The all-in full stack weighted average cost of capital was approximately 7.5% and resulted in a cumulative advance rate as measured against our contracted subscriber value metric of over 80%. The use of private credit investors shows the strong interest in our assets from a growing and broad set of investors.

全部全端加權平均資本成本約為 7.5%，根據我們超過 80% 的合約訂戶價值指標衡量，累積預付率達到了 7.5%。私人信貸投資者的使用顯示越來越多且廣泛的投資者對我們的資產產生了濃厚的興趣。

On the parent capital side, we have a couple of updates to share. Our overarching strategy is to drive the lowest cost of capital across the enterprise, supporting high asset-level financing to generate cash while appropriately managing parent leverage to make sure we have flexibility in terms of our debt maturity time lines. It is prudent to extend facilities early to navigate potential and unexpected macroeconomic conditions and volatility.

在母公司資本方面，我們有一些更新要分享。我們的整體策略是推動整個企業的資本成本最低，支持高資產水準融資以產生現金，同時適當管理母公司槓桿，以確保我們在債務到期時間方面具有靈活性。明智的做法是儘早擴大融資規模，以應對潛在的和意外的宏觀經濟狀況和波動。

Consistent with this strategy, we have been planning to refinance our recourse working capital facility, and we recently closed that extension. We reduced the size from $600 million to $447.5 million with an option to upsize the facility to $477.5 million prior to September 30, 2024. The reduction in the facility is in line with the reduced working capital needs of the business, especially as we have substantially reduced inventory as pandemic-related supply chain challenges fade into the past.

根據這項策略，我們一直計劃為我們的追索性營運資金安排進行再融資，並且我們最近結束了該延期。我們將規模從6 億美元減少到4.475 億美元，並可選擇在2024 年9 月30 日之前將設施規模擴大到4.775 億美元。設施的減少符合業務營運資金需求的減少，特別是因為我們已經大幅減少了營運資金需求。隨著與疫情相關的供應鏈挑戰逐漸成為過去，庫存減少。

We amended the facility to extend the maturity from January 2025 to November 2025. We also included a feature that will further extend the maturity to March 2027 should we meet the requirements for this provision. The facility now has typical grid-based pricing tied to utilization with spreads ranging from 325 to 375 basis points. This facility can be refinanced without penalty at any time.

我們修改了該安排，將期限從 2025 年 1 月延長至 2025 年 11 月。我們還添加了一項功能，如果我們滿足此條款的要求，則將期限進一步延長至 2027 年 3 月。該設施現在採用典型的基於網格的定價，與利用率掛鉤，利差範圍為 325 至 375 個基點。該設施可以隨時再融資而不會受到處罰。

Shifting to our convertible debt. In 2021, we issued $400 million of 0 coupon debt that is due in February 2026. During Q4 and into Q1, we have opportunistically taken advantage of the market dislocation in the pricing of these bonds by repurchasing nearly $26 million of principal value at a significant discount to par in the open market, deploying approximately $20 million. These repurchases reflect a healthy low teens area yield to final maturity, levels we believe are accretive to shareholders.

轉向我們的可轉換債務。 2021 年，我們發行了4 億美元的零息票債務，將於2026 年2 月到期。在第四季度和第一季度，我們機會主義地利用這些債券定價的市場混亂，以高額回購了近2600 萬美元的本金。在公開市場上以平價折扣，部署約 2000 萬美元。這些回購反映出最終到期收益率處於健康的低十幾歲水平，我們認為這一水平對股東有利。

This afternoon, we also issued a press release indicating we are launching a $475 million convertible debt offering. I will refer you to read that release for more information on the proposed transaction the use of proceeds and the capped call transaction that is intended to mitigate dilution.

今天下午，我們也發布了一份新聞稿，表示我們將發行 4.75 億美元的可轉換債券。我建議您閱讀新聞稿，以了解有關擬議交易、收益使用以及旨在減輕稀釋的上限看漲期權交易的更多資訊。

As of today, we have $374 million of 2026 convertible bonds outstanding. Our previous transactions buying the 2026 bonds resulted in a reduction to net debt. We also recently reduced our working capital facility by about $153 million, contemplating this balance sheet optimization opportunity that is consistent with our strategy of being prudent with the quantum and duration of recourse debt.

截至今天，我們已發行 3.74 億美元的 2026 年可轉換債券。我們先前購買 2026 年債券的交易導致淨債務減少。我們最近也減少了約 1.53 億美元的營運資本額度，考慮到這項資產負債表優化機會，這與我們謹慎對待追索債務的數量和期限的策略是一致的。

Depending on the execution of the new convert issuance and the repurchase of the 2026 notes, total recourse indebtedness could either decline or increase, unlikely material in either direction, while the maturity schedule will be extended significantly. When we think about our balance sheet, we prioritize a strong cash position and use of asset-level nonrecourse debt financing. This strategy provides the lowest cost of capital to finance cash flow-producing assets backed by high credit consumers and to use parent recourse debt that is appropriately sized and balances maturity dates, cash interest costs and flexibility.

根據新的可轉換債券發行和2026 年票據回購的執行情況，總追索權債務可能會下降或增加，但在任何一個方向上都不太可能產生重大影響，而到期時間表將大幅延長。當我們考慮資產負債表時，我們優先考慮強大的現金狀況和使用資產級無追索權債務融資。該策略提供最低的資本成本，為由高信用消費者支持的產生現金流的資產提供融資，並使用適當規模且平衡到期日、現金利息成本和靈活性的母公司追索債務。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 19. The market remains very underpenetrated, and we continue to believe we can sustain robust growth throughout this decade. In this strong long-term demand backdrop, our priority is to generate cash by continuing to increase customer values through growing storage adoption and other high-value products and services and by reducing costs by driving further efficiencies across the business.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 19 的展望。市場的滲透率仍然很低，我們仍然相信我們可以在這十年中保持強勁的成長。在這種強勁的長期需求背景下，我們的首要任務是透過增加儲存採用率和其他高價值產品和服務來繼續增加客戶價值，並透過提高整個業務的效率來降低成本，從而產生現金。

Storage capacity installed is expected to be in a range of 160 to 170 megawatt hours in Q1. This represents 125% to 139% growth year-over-year. For the full year, we expect storage capacity installed to be in a range of 800 megawatt hours to 1 gigawatt hour, reflecting 40% to 75% growth year-over-year. Solar energy capacity installed is expected to be in a range of 165 to 175 megawatts in Q1. This represents a decline of approximately 25% from Q4 at the midpoint.

預計第一季安裝的儲存容量將在 160 至 170 兆瓦時之間。這意味著同比增長 125% 至 139%。就全年而言，我們預計儲能裝置容量將在 800 兆瓦時至 1 吉瓦時之間，年增 40% 至 75%。預計第一季太陽能裝置容量將在 165 至 175 兆瓦之間。這意味著較第四季中點下降了約 25%。

Q1 is typically the lowest period of the year based on seasonal constraints to sales activities in Q4 and Q1 along with weather-related obstacles to installations in Q1. Our volume has declined from Q4 to Q1 in every year we've reported our volume, and this year is no exception. In addition, the continued discipline we are exercising in the affiliate partner segment has a slight effect along with the fact that we exited Arizona. Because of the pull-in of demand in California in early 2023, year-over-year comparisons are less relevant in Q1. We are confident that Q1 volumes will mark the low point, and we expect very robust sequential growth into Q2 and the rest of the year.

由於第四季度和第一季銷售活動的季節性限制以及第一季與天氣相關的安裝障礙，第一季通常是一年中最低的時期。在我們報告銷量的每一年中，我們的銷量都從第四季度下降到第一季度，今年也不例外。此外，我們在聯盟合作夥伴領域持續實行的紀律以及我們退出亞利桑那州的事實也產生了輕微的影響。由於 2023 年初加州的需求拉動，第一季的年比比較意義不大。我們相信，第一季的銷售量將達到最低點，我們預計第二季和今年剩餘時間將出現非常強勁的環比成長。

For the full year, we expect solar capacity installed to be in the range of down 5% to up 5%. This represents market share gains as the strength of our subscription offering and our disciplined go-to-market approach delivers strong results. Our growth in the value we create with this volume will be much larger. We forecast subscriber values will increase by greater than 10% in 2024 as we increase our mix of higher-value offerings and input costs decline, resulting in growth of total value generated of greater than 15% in 2024.

我們預計全年太陽能裝置容量將下降 5% 至上升 5%。這代表著市場份額的成長，因為我們的訂閱服務實力和嚴格的市場進入方法帶來了強勁的業績。我們透過這個數量創造的價值的成長將會大得多。我們預測，隨著我們增加高價值產品組合和投入成本下降，2024 年訂戶價值將成長超過 10%，導致 2024 年產生的總價值成長超過 15%。

Turning to Slide 20. We expect our disciplined and focused strategy will allow us to capitalize on our long-term opportunity with our current focus on cash generation in 2024. We are reiterating our range of $200 million to $500 million in recurring annual cash generation, which we expect to achieve by the fourth quarter of 2024. We generated cash in the fourth quarter, the second consecutive quarter of positive cash generation. We continue to expect cumulative cash generation to be positive from Q4 2023 through the end of 2024.

轉向幻燈片20。我們預計，我們嚴格而專注的策略將使我們能夠利用我們的長期機會，目前我們的重點是2024 年的現金產生。我們重申我們每年經常性現金產生的範圍為2 億至5億美元，我們預計在 2024 年第四季實現這一目標。我們在第四季度產生了現金，這是連續第二季產生正現金。我們繼續預計從 2023 年第四季到 2024 年底，累計現金產生量將為正值。

Keep in mind, cash generation can be lumpy quarter-to-quarter based on project financing timing and inherent seasonality in our business. To this point, we expect to have a lower cash generation in Q1, owing to the timing of financing activity and lower volumes, the latter of which results in worse fixed cost absorption. In addition, refinancing our warehouse facility will result in a onetime reduction to cash as we reflect the new advance rate on assets in the facility. Our cash generation range is based on assumptions we have outlined on the bottom of Slide 20.

請記住，根據專案融資時間和我們業務固有的季節性，每季的現金產生可能會不穩定。到目前為止，我們預計第一季的現金產生量將較低，原因是融資活動的時機和數量減少，後者導致固定成本吸收較差。此外，對我們的倉庫設施進行再融資將導致一次性減少現金，因為我們反映了該設施中資產的新預付款率。我們的現金產生範圍是基於我們在幻燈片 20 底部概述的假設。

With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回瑪麗身上。

Thanks, Danny. I am so appreciative of the work of the Sunrun team executing on our transition to a storage-first company to extend our differentiation, expand our margins and deliver the best value to customers. Importantly, I believe our steadfast commitment to our disciplined growth strategy will maximize the value we can create in the long run.

謝謝，丹尼。我非常感謝 Sunrun 團隊在我們向儲存優先的公司轉型過程中所做的工作，以擴大我們的差異化、擴大我們的利潤並為客戶提供最佳價值。重要的是，我相信我們對嚴格成長策略的堅定承諾將從長遠來看最大化我們可以創造的價值。

Operator, let's open the line for questions.

接線員，讓我們打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩爾科科（Andrew Percoco）。

I guess just to start out with your guidance, I just want to break down your solar growth guidance for the year. You're showing some pretty impressive sequential growth within your slides. So can you just maybe just provide some context on what you're baking into that guidance in terms of California and non-California growth throughout the year?

我想從您的指導開始，我只想分解您今年的太陽能成長指導。您在幻燈片中展示了一些令人印象深刻的連續成長。那麼，您能否提供一些背景信息，說明您在全年加州和非加州經濟成長方面正在納入該指導的內容？

Yes, for sure, Andrew. Nice to hear from you. Yes, I mean what we're really seeing is that Q1, we've seen some nice sales growth volume as I hit, right? So we've seen sales growth -- sales growing 23%. California is growing 40% sequentially. And in our constant monitoring with all of our sales leaders across the company, yes, we feel very, very comfortable around the demand that we're seeing.

是的，當然，安德魯。很高興聽到你的消息。是的，我的意思是我們真正看到的是第一季度，我們看到了一些不錯的銷售量成長，對吧？所以我們看到了銷售額的成長——銷售額成長了 23%。加州環比成長 40%。在我們與全公司所有銷售領導的持續監控中，是的，我們對所看到的需求感到非常非常滿意。

As you also know, we're very, very focused on not just that solar volume but also the storage attachment rate where we've seen, again, really, really healthy uptick in the percentage of the attachment rate as well as what we're seeing every single week from the field in the context of what -- the attachment rate that they're selling. So we're feeling really good about the volumes we talked about, and we're also really expecting, again, that net subscriber value growth tied a lot to the storage attachment rate, the retrofit work we're doing and some of the other initiatives we hit.

如您所知，我們不僅非常非常關注太陽能量，還非常關注存儲附著率，我們再次看到附著率百分比以及我們的存儲附著率的健康上升。我們每週都會從現場看到他們正在銷售的附件率。因此，我們對我們所討論的數量感到非常滿意，而且我們也非常期望，淨用戶價值的增長與存儲附加率、我們正在進行的改造工作以及其他一些工作密切相關。我們採取的舉措。

Understood. That's helpful context. And then maybe just switching gears a bit. This renewal pilot is really interesting. So I just kind of want to double-click on that for a second. I guess based on the conversations you're having with some of your debt providers, what do you need to demonstrate to start getting some of that renewal value credit within the underwriting process? It seems like this is a pretty small sample size, and you're still kind of working through it. So how far are you in those conversations? And what needs to be done in order to start getting additional credit as you come to market with future securitizations?

明白了。這是有用的背景。然後也許只是稍微切換一下。這個更新試點確實很有趣。所以我只是想雙擊一下它。我想根據您與一些債務提供者的對話，您需要證明什麼才能開始在核保過程中獲得一些續訂價值信用？看起來這只是一個相當小的樣本量，而且您仍在研究它。那麼你在這些對話中進行到什麼程度了呢？當您透過未來的證券化進入市場時，您需要做什麼才能開始獲得額外的信貸？

Yes. Great question. I think it's more track record, getting the numbers that continue to build. I think there's also obviously a variety of things we can pilot and test in this period where we have customers that have the long-term relationships with them. We can go back to different subsets of customers and test the effectiveness of what works. So I think it's really continuing at it and building the track record. I think we're encouraged with the initial results. I think from a debt underwriting perspective, it's really the track record lengthening and the numbers building.

是的。很好的問題。我認為這更多的是記錄，獲得不斷增加的數字。我認為，在這個時期，我們顯然還可以試用和測試各種各樣的事情，因為我們的客戶與他們有長期的關係。我們可以返回不同的客戶子集並測試有效方法的有效性。所以我認為它確實在繼續努力並建立記錄。我認為我們對初步結果感到鼓舞。我認為從債務承銷的角度來看，這實際上是記錄的延長和數字的增加。

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

So just kicking things off on cash and obviously the ramp to meet your cash guidance. Can you talk a little bit about external financing needs beyond the sort of present context here? As you think about ramping up into that more ongoing sort of sustainable cash number, how does today's developments juxtapose against the ongoing needs presumably that you achieve by the end of the year here in terms of cash?

因此，只是從現金開始，顯然是為了滿足您的現金指導。您能否談談目前情況之外的外部融資需求？當您考慮增加更持續的可持續現金數量時，今天的發展如何與您在今年年底前實現的現金需求相比較？

Yes, yes. I would say the exercise and the activity that we've been talking about is really about taking care of, at the parent recourse level, the maturities, the amount of leverage, and then at the asset level, as we talked about with the warehouse pushing out for 3 years, the runway of warehouse financing in line with the strategy to maximize the nonrecourse level. And all of that taken together is within the kind of backdrop of, obviously, more importantly, the cash generation picture and delivering into that later this year, which is looking on track.

是的是的。我想說的是，我們一直在談論的練習和活動實際上是在母追索權級別、到期日、槓桿金額以及資產級別上進行處理，正如我們與倉庫討論的那樣推出3年以來，倉庫融資的跑道符合最大化無追索權水準的策略。顯然，更重要的是，所有這些都在現金生成情況的背景下進行，並在今年稍後交付，這看起來正在步入正軌。

Got it. Excellent. And then do you want to talk a little bit more about the volumetric breakdown here? I mean what stands out to me is your commentary on sales here, even at the start of the year, seems to reflect some -- you used the word sharp uptick. Do you want to elaborate a little bit more geographically on what you're seeing out there? You talked about the enthusiasm from the field. How does that juxtapose against maybe some of the other data points that we're seeing about California specifically here, if you can elaborate. And obviously, it seems like that's really informing your second quarter expectations on installs, too.

知道了。出色的。那麼您想多談談這裡的體積細分嗎？我的意思是，對我來說最突出的是你對這裡銷售的評論，即使是在今年年初，似乎也反映出了一些——你使用了“急劇上升”這個詞。您想從地理角度更詳細地闡述您所看到的情況嗎？您談到了現場的熱情。如果您能詳細說明一下，這與我們在這裡看到的有關加利福尼亞州的其他一些數據點有何不同？顯然，這似乎也確實告訴了您對第二季安裝的預期。

Yes, for sure, Julien. What we're seeing is the recent trends are positive. And as we talked about before, yes, we were managing through some changes in the context of policy in California. But the trends, particularly in California, are positive and growing. In fact, California is growing faster now than the rest of the country for us. So we're feeling good about the build back in California. And again, we're seeing really good results in other parts of the country.

是的，當然，朱利安。我們看到最近的趨勢是正面的。正如我們之前談到的，是的，我們正在應對加州政策背景的一些變化。但趨勢是積極的，而且還在不斷增長，尤其是在加州。事實上，對我們來說，加州現在的成長速度比全國其他地區都要快。所以我們對加州的建設感覺良好。我們再次在該國其他地區看到了非常好的結果。

What you see with us largely in Q1 is a result of what I view as really important prudent decisions we made on volume that, again, is just seeing its way through a quarter that traditionally always has lower volumes. So it's our -- it's a reflection of our disciplined focus on sustainable profitable growth. And that's, again, what drove up our net subscriber value that we talked about is really our execution of that.

你在第一季看到的情況主要是我認為我們在銷售方面做出的非常重要的審慎決定的結果，同樣，這只是在傳統上總是銷量較低的季度中看到的結果。因此，這反映了我們對可持續獲利成長的嚴格關注。這又是我們所說的推動我們的淨訂戶價值成長的真正原因是我們的執行力。

Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler 的對話。

So first one, just a quick financing strategy question. Mary, you as you indicated, you exited the year with $680 million in unrestricted cash, and it sounds like the cash balance is going to be higher by the end of 2024 given the cash gen commentary. So why pursue a convert rather than just pay it down since you would have had excess cash after the convert pay-down?

第一個問題是一個快速的融資策略問題。瑪麗，正如您所言，您在這一年結束時擁有 6.8 億美元的非限制性現金，而且考慮到現金生成的評論，到 2024 年底，現金餘額似乎會更高。那麼，為什麼要追求轉換而不是只付清首付，因為在轉換付清後你會有多餘的現金呢？

Yes. I think I'll take that. The exercise here is obviously with a few facilities involved across the stack, maturity extension, near-term liability management. That's been driving some of the timing of the layering of financings. I think we saw, again, the convertible bonds where they're trading looked very apparently dislocated to us. We did go ahead and purchase a bit of that. I think pricing moved during that few-week process that we were repurchasing.

是的。我想我會接受的。這裡的練習顯然涉及整個堆疊、期限延長、近期負債管理等一些設施。這在一定程度上推動了融資分層的時機。我認為我們再次看到他們所交易的可轉換債券對我們來說看起來非常明顯錯位。我們確實購買了一些。我認為價格在我們回購的幾週過程中發生了變化。

But I think generally, it was the near-term focus on the liability management. We think that's prudent, extending out the maturities and then shifting for the balance of the year with that behind us to cash generation and then optimizing the use of that extra cash as it arrives to maximize shareholder value.

但我認為總的來說，近期的重點是負債管理。我們認為這是謹慎的做法，延長期限，然後將今年的剩餘時間轉移到現金生成上，然後在額外現金到來時優化其使用，以實現股東價值最大化。

Fair enough. And then my follow-up question is on the cash generation target guidance that you reiterated. Can you just remind us what the sensitivities are to interest rates, all else equal? And then maybe part and parcel with that, I guess I would have thought the project costs would be maybe closer to 7% given recent securitizations and the drop in the benchmark rate versus the time of the last 3Q call. So I guess I'm just curious why your project finance costs only moved down 25 bps relative to the last update.

很公平。然後我的後續問題是關於您重申的現金產生目標指引。您能否提醒我們，在其他條件相同的情況下，利率的敏感度是什麼？然後，也許重要的是，考慮到最近的證券化以及基準利率相對於上次第三季電話會議的時間的下降，我想我會認為專案成本可能會接近 7%。所以我想我只是好奇為什麼你們的專案融資成本相對於上次更新只下降了 25 個基點。

Great questions. The first one is about 0.25 point is about 1 point in -- or about 75 basis points in advance rate move. I think we've gotten a little bit less rate sensitive as kind of the baseline of rates has stabilized higher. On an annualized basis, that's between $40 million and $50 million of cash generation change per 0.25 point of change in interest rates.

很好的問題。第一個是約 0.25 個基點，即提前利率變動約 1 個基點，約 75 個基點。我認為我們對利率的敏感度有所降低，因為利率基準已經穩定在較高水準。以年化計算，利率每變動 0.25 點，現金產生量就會發生 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元的變動。

And on the second one, that's a fair observation. I would say the 7.5% does skew a little conservative relative to what we've been seeing in the market. I think there's a possibility we'd end up a tad lower on a subsequent transaction.

對於第二個，這是一個公平的觀察。我想說，相對於我們在市場上看到的情況，7.5% 確實有點保守。我認為我們在後續交易中最終的價格可能會稍微低一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Moses Sutton of BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的摩西·薩頓（Moses Sutton）。

I just have a follow-up to Kashy on the convert. Just to clarify, do you expect to repurchase a majority of the $374 million 2026 convert? I get this is mostly a refi. I'm just trying to understand if the majority of that would be repurchased. And do you expect an arbitrage considering you're using a convert to buy a discounted convert? I'm trying to understand if there will be a pricing premium relative to the 2026.

我剛剛對卡西的皈依者進行了後續報道。澄清一下，您是否預計會回購 2026 年 3.74 億美元轉換中的大部分資金？我知道這主要是改裝。我只是想了解其中的大部分是否會被回購。考慮到您使用轉換者購買打折的轉換者，您是否期望套利？我想了解相對於 2026 年是否會有定價溢價。

Yes. I think I do want to just kind of refer you more to the press release. I think a repurchase was noted in the press release, and I think that's kind of use of proceeds. As to how much, I think that will come out in due time. We did note in the script that we could see leverage fall as a result of the transaction. It could go slightly up. But generally, that's the positioning on the range. But in either direction, not intending to be material.

是的。我想我確實想請您更多地閱讀新聞稿。我認為新聞稿中提到了回購，我認為這是收益的一種使用。至於多少錢，我想到時候就會出來。我們確實在腳本中註意到，交易導致槓桿率下降。它可能會小幅上漲。但一般來說，這就是範圍內的定位。但無論哪個方向，都無意成為實質的。

Got it. That's very helpful. And I guess shifting to NEM 3.0, Mary, I believe you noted CA is growing faster for you now than the rest of the country, which is quite astonishing. I know it relates a lot to the storage attach rates. How much do you think it relates to the underlying NEM 3.0 return profile? We get that there's a lot of friction, 2.0 to 3.0. There was a lot of pull forward. So it's really hard to get a real-time sense of the economics. With eye-popping time of use rates, I'm curious if there is a misconception out there on how NEM 3.0 return books.

知道了。這非常有幫助。我想轉向 NEM 3.0，瑪麗，我相信您注意到 CA 現在對您來說比全國其他地區增長得更快，這是相當驚人的。我知道這與儲存附加率有很大關係。您認為它與潛在的 NEM 3.0 回報率有多大關係？我們發現摩擦力很大，從 2.0 到 3.0。有很大的推動力。因此，要即時了解經濟狀況確實很難。憑藉令人瞠目結舌的使用率，我很好奇是否存在對 NEM 3.0 如何歸還書籍的誤解。

Yes. I mean at Sunrun, the story is our differentiation because we had expertise in storage. And so again, we innovated, as you know, with a product to grab customers as soon as possible, that shift product. And then we found that really what customers were wanting across California was whole home backup, and we have great expertise in that. So -- and we launched -- as you know, we called 2023 the year of storage, and we were going to -- we were leading with storage. And our numbers show that, that was a very effective strategy, particularly in California.

是的。我的意思是，在 Sunrun，故事是我們的差異化，因為我們擁有儲存方面的專業知識。如您所知，我們再次創新了一種產品，以盡快吸引客戶，從而改變產品。然後我們發現整個加州的客戶真正想要的是整個家庭備份，而我們在這方面擁有豐富的專業知識。因此，我們推出了，如您所知，我們將 2023 年稱為存儲年，我們將在存儲方面處於領先地位。我們的數據表明，這是一個非常有效的策略，特別是在加州。

So California is, for some, still probably a challenging market for companies that are selling solar only or who don't have this kind of differentiation. You also note, and it's correct, that utility rates, there's nothing stopping the pressure on utility rates. So over time, that also is certainly helpful in the context of the Sunrun value proposition with our solar plus storage offering.

因此，對於某些人來說，對於僅銷售太陽能或不具備這種差異化優勢的公司來說，加州可能仍然是一個充滿挑戰的市場。您還注意到，這是正確的，公用事業費率，沒有什麼可以阻止公用事業費率的壓力。因此，隨著時間的推移，這對我們的太陽能+儲存產品的 Sunrun 價值主張來說肯定也很有幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾布魯姆與富國銀行的對話。

I wanted to go back to the program you have here to renew the contracts for customers. Can you just kind of walk through the process of turning those indications into actual signed contracts? And what are the plans to roll this program out more broadly to your customer base?

我想回到你們這裡為客戶續約的計畫。您能簡單介紹一下將這些指示轉化為實際簽署的合約的過程嗎？有何計劃將該計劃更廣泛地推廣到您的客戶群？

Yes. Great question. We're really excited about the early results. And as you know, we were really pleased to get this renewal pilot going. We have Paul Dickson here who's led this effort. So Paul, why don't you address some of those questions?

是的。很好的問題。我們對早期結果感到非常興奮。如您所知，我們非常高興能夠啟動這個更新試點。保羅·迪克森 (Paul Dickson) 領導了這項工作。那麼保羅，你為什麼不解決其中一些問題呢？

Yes. Thanks for the questions. I think really the focus for us, obviously, as was mentioned in an earlier question around financing these assets and securitizing the full value that we're creating with these customers. But on these initial pilots, the focus is really for us in better understanding our consumers' needs and desires and interests. And as we've dug into doing customer pulling and now actually selling customer renewals, we're finding exactly what we hope to find, which is customers love the product. They're eager to extend and renew.

是的。感謝您的提問。顯然，我認為這確實是我們的重點，正如之前關於為這些資產融資並將我們與這些客戶創造的全部價值證券化的問題中提到的那樣。但在這些最初的試點中，我們的重點實際上是更了解消費者的需求、願望和興趣。當我們深入研究客戶拉動並實際銷售客戶續約時，我們正在找到我們希望找到的東西，那就是客戶喜歡產品。他們渴望延長和更新。

And there's a whole host of avenues that we can take that with adding additional products and increasing rate or keeping where they are with their steady escalator. So there's a lot on the table for us as we open the store and extend it. But really, it's about understanding the assets that we're sitting on and taking full value of them and giving customers what they're looking for.

我們可以採取多種途徑來增加額外的產品、提高速度或透過穩定的自動扶梯保持原狀。因此，當我們開設商店並擴展它時，我們有很多事情要做。但實際上，這是關於了解我們所擁有的資產並充分利用它們的價值並為客戶提供他們正在尋找的東西。

Great. And then you -- recently, as you noted, you switched from Home Depot to Lowe's. Just wondering if you can address the difference in the arrangements there and just more broadly, maybe how you're viewing the different sales channels from...

偉大的。然後你——最近，正如你所指出的，你從家得寶 (Home Depot) 轉到了勞氏 (Lowe's)。只是想知道您是否可以解決那裡的安排差異，更廣泛地說，也許您如何看待不同的銷售管道...

Yes. So we like having a strong presence in a home improvement area for retail. And as we've been focused on cash generation and driving profitable growth and evaluated the opportunity in Lowe's, we found some really interesting and advantageous things about that as a host site, if you will, one being a really high homeowner demographic; and two, just the general reality that there's been far less solar presence in those retail sites. And although it's only been a few days of selling in that side, it's been really encouraging. So we're really excited about the consumer demographic and the relatively unpenetrated nature of it.

是的。因此，我們希望在零售家居裝修領域擁有強大的影響力。由於我們一直專注於現金產生和推動獲利成長，並評估了 Lowe's 的機會，因此我們發現了作為託管網站的一些非常有趣和有利的事情，如果你願意的話，其中一個是非常高的房主人口；第二，這是一個普遍的現實，即這些零售場所中太陽能的存在要少得多。雖然這方面的銷售才幾天，但確實令人鼓舞。因此，我們對消費者群體及其相對未滲透的性質感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的特里斯坦·理查森 (Tristan Richardson)。

Just a question on the cost reductions you're seeing on the equipment side. You mentioned 18% or greater than 18% off the highs. Is that just sort of what you're seeing today in terms of your product categories? And then also, you talked about realizing this over the next couple of quarters. We're hearing throughout the value chain the pricing pressure is not completed yet. So is there a possibility that, that 18% over the next couple of quarters could end up higher than 18%?

只是關於您在設備方面看到的成本降低的問題。您提到比高點低 18% 或超過 18%。這就是您今天所看到的產品類別嗎？然後，您還談到了在接下來的幾個季度中實現這一點。我們聽說整個價值鏈的定價壓力尚未結束。那麼，未來幾季的 18% 是否有可能最終高於 18%？

Yes. Great question. So definitely, the 18% is being driven by actual pricing on procurement activity we are conducting in the market. The reason we are talking about it in a lagged manner, again, is the amount of inventory we've been carrying on hand has been a little bit more sticky in terms of being above target. I think it's moving towards target over the next quarter or 2 as we've guided to over the last couple of quarters. And as that moves through, we do have good line of sight into that greater than 18%.

是的。很好的問題。因此，可以肯定的是，18% 是由我們在市場上進行的採購活動的實際定價所驅動的。我們之所以以滯後的方式談論它，再次是因為我們手頭上的庫存量在高於目標方面更具黏性。我認為，正如我們在過去幾個季度所指導的那樣，它將在下一個或兩個季度實現目標。隨著這個過程的推進，我們確實對超過 18% 的比例有了很好的了解。

It could certainly be more. At this point, it's most heavily being driven by battery prices and module prices, which are the -- obviously the most significant part of the stack. But definitely, pricing has softened up a bit and remain that way, and there could be opportunity for a bit more.

當然還可以更多。在這一點上，它主要受到電池價格和模組價格的推動，這顯然是堆疊中最重要的部分。但可以肯定的是，定價已經軟化並保持這種狀態，並且可能有更多的機會。

Appreciate it. And then just a follow-up, I think going in the same vein around the -- you said greater than 100 days maybe on last quarter, and today, we're approximately 100 days. Does that reflect the uptick in sales activity you guys are talking about seeing here in 1Q? Or should we expect that to accelerate downward just given what you're seeing early in the top of the funnel?

欣賞它。然後是一個後續行動，我認為同樣如此——您說上個季度可能超過 100 天，而今天，我們大約有 100 天。這是否反映了你們所說的第一季銷售活動的上升？或者，考慮到您在漏斗頂部早期看到的情況，我們是否應該預期其會加速下降？

Yes. So not yet reflected. And part of what brings it down is apart from just bringing down the gross dollars of inventory balance, the significant increase we are expecting in install activity that will follow our sales. And that's also in line with that kind of 1- to 2-quarter guidance as our daily rate of installs will be much higher and our balance will be lower, we should naturally get to our target days.

是的。所以還沒有體現出來。導致其下降的部分原因不僅僅是降低庫存餘額的總金額，我們預計隨著我們的銷售，安裝活動將顯著增加。這也符合 1 到 2 季的指導，因為我們的每日安裝率會更高，而我們的餘額會更低，我們自然應該達到目標天數。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自約瑟夫·奧沙與古根漢合夥人的關係。

Two kind of interlinked questions. First, understanding that this convert was largely refi, can you give us some ratio or set of limits that we can use to think about what the trajectory of recourse debt for the company might look like? And in that vein, when you talk about the $200 million to $500 million in annualized cash generation by Q4 of this year, can you commit to us that, that is cash generation that occurs without the benefit of equity or equity-linked or recourse debt issuance?

兩種相互關聯的問題。首先，了解這種轉換主要是再融資，您能否給我們一些比率或一組限制，我們可以用它來思考公司追索債務的軌跡可能會是什麼樣子？本著這種精神，當您談到今年第四季的年化現金產生量為2 億至5 億美元時，您能否向我們承諾，這是在沒有股權或股權掛鉤或追索權債務的情況下產生的現金生成發行？

Yes, yes to that second part. The cash generation here is really geared towards maximum use of nonrecourse. So it's really -- implied here is a growing amount of nonrecourse that is exceeding the cost to generate the originations. So that is the cash generation. That's obviously different. That's not a plan to raise more parent capital.

是的，是的，第二部分。這裡的現金產生實際上是為了最大限度地利用無追索權。所以這實際上意味著越來越多的無追索權超過了產生的成本。這就是現金生成。這顯然是不同的。這並不是籌集更多母公司資本的計劃。

Okay. And on that first question, how can we think about what recourse debt, how we should think about that in...

好的。關於第一個問題，我們如何考慮什麼是追索債務，我們應該如何考慮...

Yes. I think -- yes. Obviously, with the transaction -- with the 144A transaction in the market, I will have to kind of reiterate pointing to that. But I'll kind of like reiterate the part of the prepared remarks. No material movement in either direction in the amount of like net parent leverage.

是的。我想是的。顯然，對於市場上的 144A 交易，我將不得不重申這一點。但我想重申一下準備好的發言部分。母公司淨槓桿率在任何一個方向上都沒有重大變化。

That is net recourse?

那就是淨追索權？

Recourse, recourse, correct.

追索，追索，正確。

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 Philip Shen 與 ROTH MKM 的對話。

As it relates to renewals, I was wondering if you could share -- sorry if I missed it, but can you share, from a renewal standpoint, the dollar or megawatt volume that could be up per year, this year, next year and how that might scale thereafter?

由於它與續約有關，我想知道您是否可以分享 - 抱歉，如果我錯過了，但是您能否從續約的角度分享一下，每年、今年、明年可能增加的美元或兆瓦電量以及如何增加此後可能會擴大規模嗎？

Yes. So this year, we have no customers that are up for renewal to proactive pilot. So we're reaching out to customers that in 3 to 4 years from now begin to start renewing. And so we're proactively talking to them to understand what those opportunities are.

是的。因此，今年我們沒有客戶需要續訂主動試辦。因此，我們正在聯繫從現在起 3 到 4 年內開始續訂的客戶。因此，我們正在積極與他們交談，以了解這些機會是什麼。

And in fact, renewing them early. So again, like it is about learning and scaling. So again, we're not at all thinking about this as something like we're going to sit here and wait for customers to renew. We're going to come up with programs and ways to meet their needs ahead of the end of their renewal period.

事實上，儘早更新它們。再說一次，就像學習和擴展一樣。再說一次，我們根本不會認為這就像我們要坐在這裡等待客戶續約。我們將在續訂期結束之前提出計劃和方法來滿足他們的需求。

Yes. I totally get everything you said, and I understand the renewals are not for some time, but I was wondering if you guys had a view as to what the volume might be. That's -- I'll move to the second question here. With your flat 24 megawatt guide as a backdrop, our work with Freedom Forever, which I believe is one of your largest, if not largest, dealers suggest they may be growing 60% to 100% year-over-year. So our estimates suggest that they might -- may have contributed 250 megawatts to your business in '23. In '24, this could be closer to 380 megawatts as they're splitting their volume between you and EverBright. So our rough numbers suggest that they might be adding, what, roughly 130 megawatts to your megawatts in '24 of your roughly 1 gig.

是的。我完全明白你所說的一切，而且我知道續訂已經有一段時間了，但我想知道你們是否對數量有什麼看法。那就是——我將轉向第二個問題。以你們的扁平 24 兆瓦指南為背景，我們與 Freedom Forever 的合作（我相信這是你們最大的經銷商之一）表示，他們可能會同比增長 60% 到 100%。因此，我們的估計表明，他們可能 - 可能在 23 年為您的業務貢獻了 250 兆瓦。 24 年，這個數字可能接近 380 兆瓦，因為他們將在您和光大之間分配發電量。因此，我們的粗略數字表明，他們可能會在大約 1 兆瓦的 24 兆瓦中增加約 130 兆瓦。

So given that you have guided flat year-over-year, can you give us some color on what is happening with the rest of the business? If they're growing 130, can -- perhaps our assumptions on the Freedom situation are off the mark. Maybe correct us if we're wrong. But maybe share with us what's going on with the rest of your dealer business year-over-year. And from a direct standpoint, how is that business going? Is your direct business -- I know on Slide 20 -- 6 there, Slide 6, it shows that you have a direct business growing really well. But I was wondering where Freedom is categorized. Are they categorized in the affiliate program there or partner? Or is that in the blue Sunrun direct. So if you can share some more color on that situation, that would be fantastic.

鑑於您的業績指引與去年同期持平，您能否向我們介紹其他業務的情況？如果他們成長到 130，可能——也許我們對自由局勢的假設是錯的。如果我們錯了，也許可以糾正我們。但也許可以與我們分享一下您的其他經銷商業務逐年發生的情況。從直接的角度來看，該業務進展如何？是你的直接業務嗎？我知道幻燈片 20 - 6 那裡，幻燈片 6，它表明你的直接業務成長得非常好。但我想知道自由是屬於哪一類。他們是否屬於那裡的聯盟行銷計劃或合作夥伴？或是在藍色Sunrun 直接。因此，如果您能分享有關這種情況的更多信息，那就太好了。

Yes. So that's what I was going to point you to, is Slide 6, which really gives you a very clear picture of how we see '24 currently. And yes, Freedom Forever, who has been a partner for quite a long time, a valued partner, shows up in the affiliate partner installations category. Currently, no affiliate partner is over 10% of our volume. And yes, you're right. We're seeing our direct business growing nicely.

是的。這就是我要向您指出的幻燈片 6，它確實讓您非常清楚地了解了我們目前如何看待 '24。是的，Freedom Forever，長期以來一直是我們的合作夥伴，是一個有價值的合作夥伴，出現在聯盟合作夥伴安裝類別中。目前，沒有任何聯盟合作夥伴的數量超過我們總量的 10%。是的，你是對的。我們看到我們的直接業務成長良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩李 (Brian Lee)。

I know a lot's been covered here on the call, but maybe just one for me on this Slide 20, where you're talking about the different levers and assumptions on the cash flow generation. You mentioned it's going to be lumpy throughout the year. But can you give us a sense for, I guess, what are maybe milestones, events, capital raises, et cetera, that would give you, and maybe in what time frame, more visibility as to whether you hit the low, mid, high end?

我知道電話會議涵蓋了很多內容，但也許這張投影片 20 中只介紹了我的一個內容，您在其中討論了現金流產生的不同槓桿和假設。你提到全年都會很不穩定。但我想，你能否讓我們了解一下什麼是里程碑、事件、融資等等，這些可能會讓你，也許在什麼時間範圍內，更清楚地了解你是否達到了低點、中點、高點結尾？

I mean it seems like if I just through some of this, you're already tracking well above the storage mix that's embedded here in the assumption. I think you mentioned to a prior question the 7.5% might be a bit conservative already here starting the year. So just trying to understand, one, the puts and takes but also the time line as to when that view kind of crystallizes as we move through the year, granted it's going to be lumpy on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

我的意思是，如果我只是通過其中的一些內容，您似乎已經遠遠超出了假設中嵌入的儲存組合。我認為您在之前的問題中提到，從今年開始，7.5% 可能已經有點保守了。因此，我們只是想了解看跌期權和看跌期權，以及隨著我們在這一年中這種觀點何時具體化的時間線，假設每個季度都會出現波動。

Great question. So I'll start -- I'll maybe highlight a few of the factors on the page. On volume, I think we talked about directionally throughout the year, picking up sequentially, considerably throughout the year. And implied there is hitting that 15% year-over-year mark in the back half of the year. Of course, we also highlighted that the year-over-year comps in the first half won't look as good.

很好的問題。所以我會開始——我可能會強調頁面上的一些因素。就成交量而言，我認為我們全年都在定向討論，逐年增加，全年大幅增加。並暗示今年下半年將達到 15% 的年比大關。當然，我們也強調，上半年的年比比較看起來不會那麼好。

We do have the Q1 sequential decline really pacing out of that, gives us a very decent return back on operating cost leverage in the business. And as we get that, that will be trending well. The backup storage mix, we believe we will exceed based on the remarks. The ITC adders, we're a little bit shy of about 34%. I think we have pathways building, again, in that kind of Q3, Q4 time frame to getting more of it.

我們確實看到第一季的連續下降，這為我們的業務營運成本槓桿帶來了非常可觀的回報。當我們了解到這一點時，趨勢將會很好。根據上述言論，我們相信備份儲存組合將會超越。根據 ITC 的計算，我們略低於 34%。我認為我們已經在第三季、第四季的時間範圍內再次建立了獲取更多資訊的途徑。

I think the 2 factors there would be more geo targeting, where it relates to energy communities and low income, and of course, on domestic content, the onset of that as the regulations get crystallized. And then capital costs, obviously, in a range, we are giving the range at the moment and saying 0.25 point is between $40 million and $50 million. So there's north of 100 basis points of cushion from high end to low end of range as respect to capital costs.

我認為這兩個因素將有更多的地理定位，其中涉及能源社區和低收入，當然，還有國內內容，隨著法規的具體化，這一點開始出現。然後資本成本，顯然，在一個範圍內，我們目前給出的範圍是 0.25 個點在 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元之間。因此，就資本成本而言，從高端到低端有超過 100 個基點的緩衝。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自科林·魯什（Colin Rusch）和奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的對話。

Could you guys talk about the maturity of the VPP monetization, obviously, with the incremental deployments of energy storage? Just want to get a sense of, on a portfolio level, how you see that value potentially increasing the NPV of the portfolio.

你們能談談 VPP 貨幣化的成熟度嗎？顯然，隨著能源儲存的增量部署？只是想了解在投資組合層面上，您如何看待該價值可能會增加投資組合的淨現值。

Yes. We're really pleased with the PG&E. I'm sure you saw the press release that we did with that program, where 8,500 customers participated in a program over a number of months. We think it sets up a really good framework for future virtual power plant structures that we do. That really results in like a view that over time, it would be a net subscriber value of about $2,000.

是的。我們對 PG&E 非常滿意。我確信您看過我們針對該計劃所做的新聞稿，其中有 8,500 名客戶在幾個月內參與了該計劃。我們認為它為我們所做的未來虛擬發電廠結構建立了一個非常好的框架。這確實會導致這樣一種觀點：隨著時間的推移，訂閱者的淨價值將達到約 2,000 美元。

Fantastic. And then just you mentioned labor efficiency and both on the sales and installation front, I just want to get a sense of order of magnitude you're expecting to see over the course of the year and the cadence of that efficiency as we go throughout the year.

極好的。然後，剛才您提到了銷售和安裝方面的勞動力效率，我只是想了解一下您期望在這一年中看到的數量級以及我們在整個過程中看到的效率的節奏。年。

Yes. I mean we're really pleased with the efficiency gains we've seen across the business. I would say in the installation area particularly where that productivity has really resulted in some great benefits, CAC as a percent of subscriber value is coming down. And that is happening despite the distortion created by some of the mix change.

是的。我的意思是，我們對整個企業的效率提升感到非常滿意。我想說的是，在安裝領域，特別是在生產力確實帶來了一些巨大好處的地方，CAC 佔用戶價值的百分比正在下降。儘管某些混音變化造成了失真，但這種情況仍在發生。

So yes, we're really pleased, particularly as, again, we've moved to a solar plus storage company. So that also -- as you think about productivity gains and you think about the gains we've had, where we are, in essence, having our folks selling 2 products, installing 2 products. So yes, we've been really pleased by the results we've seen around our kind of maniacal focus on cost in the business.

所以，是的，我們真的很高興，特別是因為我們再次轉向一家太陽能加儲存公司。因此，當您考慮生產力的提高以及我們所獲得的收益時，我們本質上是讓我們的員工銷售 2 種產品，安裝 2 種產品。所以，是的，我們對我們瘋狂專注於業務成本所取得的結果感到非常高興。

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Maheep Mandloi 和 Mizuho 的線路。

This is David Benjamin on for Maheep. I have a question on the convert. Can you please talk or give a little bit of color around the timing? I understand that it's for the refinance, but the converts due in 2026 doesn't go current until 2025. So just any color you could provide around that would be helpful.

我是大衛‧班傑明 (David Benjamin) 為馬希普 (Maheep) 發言。我有一個關於轉換的問題。您能談談時間或提供一些有關時間的資訊嗎？我知道這是為了再融資，但 2026 年到期的轉換要到 2025 年才會生效。因此，您可以提供的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think really in early getting out ahead and early liability management exercise. The revolver was the same thing. The warehouse was the same thing. I think we like the market conditions. We have obviously good depth in the -- especially -- I'm not addressing the convert directly, but across the capital spectrum, I think just deep pools of capital available to us and just wanting to be exceptionally timely in handling all of that.

是的。我認為真正重要的是儘早走出困境並儘早進行責任管理。左輪手槍也是同樣的東西。倉庫也是一樣。我認為我們喜歡現在的市場狀況。我們顯然在這方面有很好的深度——尤其是——我不是直接解決轉換問題，但在整個資本範圍內，我認為我們擁有深厚的資本池，只是希望能夠非常及時地處理所有這些問題。

Thank you. That concludes the time that has been allocated for Q&A. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。分配給問答的時間到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。