Sunrun Inc (RUN) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to Sunrun's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this call is being recorded and that 1 hour has been allocated for the call, including the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 Sunrun 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次通話正在錄音，並且已為通話分配了 1 小時，包括問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Patrick Jobin, Sunrun's Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 Sunrun 投資者關係高級副總裁 Patrick Jobin。請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Before we begin, please note that certain remarks we will make on this call constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe these statements reflect our best judgment based on factors currently known to us, actual results may differ materially and adversely. Please refer to the company's filings with the SEC for a more inclusive discussion of risks and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ from projections made in any forward-looking statements. Please also note that these statements are being made as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們將在本次電話會議中發表的某些言論構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述反映了我們基於目前已知因素的最佳判斷，但實際結果可能存在重大和不利的差異。請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以更全面地討論可能導致我們的實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的預測不同的風險和其他因素。另請注意，這些聲明是從今天起發布的，我們不承擔任何更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

During today's call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe can provide meaningful supplemental information for investors regarding the performance of our business and facilitate a meaningful evaluation of current period performance on a comparable basis with prior periods. These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as a supplement to and not as a substitute for, superior to or in isolation from GAAP results. You will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call and our press release issued this afternoon and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted on our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們相信這些指標可以為投資者提供有關我們業務業績的有意義的補充信息，並有助於在與前期可比的基礎上對本期業績進行有意義的評估。這些非公認會計原則財務指標應被視為對公認會計原則結果的補充，而不是替代、優於或孤立於公認會計原則結果。您將找到有關今天電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則財務措施的更多披露、我們今天下午發布的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件，每一項都發佈在我們的網站上。

On the call today are Mary Powell, Sunrun's CEO; Danny Abajian, Sunrun's CFO; Ed Fenster, Sunrun's Co-Founder and Co-Executive Chair; along with Paul Dickson, Sunrun's President and Chief Revenue Officer, are also on the call for Q&A session.

今天參加電話會議的是 Sunrun 執行長 Mary Powell； Danny Abajian，Sunrun 財務長； Sunrun 聯合創辦人兼共同執行主席 Ed Fenster； Sunrun 總裁兼首席營收長 Paul Dickson 也參加了問答環節。

A presentation is available on Sunrun's Investor Relations website, along with supplemental materials. An audio replay of today's call, along with a copy of today's prepared remarks and transcripts, including Q&A, will be posted to Sunrun's Investor Relations website shortly after the call. We have allocated 60 minutes for today's call, including the Q&A session.

Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上提供了簡報以及補充資料。今天電話會議的音訊重播以及今天準備好的言論和文字記錄（包括問答）將在電話會議後不久發佈到 Sunrun 的投資者關係網站上。我們為今天的電話會議分配了 60 分鐘時間，包括問答環節。

And now let me turn the call over to Mary.

現在讓我把電話轉給瑪莉。

Thank you, Patrick, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝派崔克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

We are starting the year with solid momentum in the business as our storage-first margin-focused strategy is delivering strong results. In the first quarter, we beat the high end of both our storage and solar installation guidance, set new records for storage attachment rates and delivered another quarter of strong net subscriber values. Our installation productivity and success driving of storage-first strategy is delivering strong results.

今年伊始，我們的業務勢頭強勁，以儲存為先、以利潤為中心的策略正在帶來強勁的業績。在第一季度，我們打破了儲存和太陽能安裝指引的高端，創下了儲存附加率的新記錄，並在另一個季度實現了強勁的淨用戶價值。我們的安裝效率和儲存優先策略的成功推動正在帶來強勁的成果。

At the same time, sales activities in Q1 did grow slightly slower than initially expected, coming in at 13% sequential growth in our direct business. While less than initially anticipated, this level is still consistent with our historical seasonal norm. We continue to prioritize margins over volumes, and we believe this approach will result in the highest long-term value for our shareholders.

同時，第一季銷售活動的成長速度確實略低於最初預期，我們的直接業務較上季成長 13%。雖然低於最初預期，但這一水平仍然符合我們的歷史季節性正常水平。我們繼續將利潤置於銷售之上，我們相信這種方法將為我們的股東帶來最高的長期價值。

We are reiterating our full year storage capacity installation guidance and we are reducing our full year solar installation capacity outlook to down 15% to flat from our prior guidance range of down 5% to up 5%. We expect 2024 will be a strong year in terms of total value generated, which will grow by over 10%.

我們重申全年儲存容量安裝指導，並將全年太陽能安裝容量前景從先前下降 5% 至上升 5% 的指導範圍下調至下降 15% 至持平。我們預計 2024 年將是總產值強勁的一年，將成長 10% 以上。

Most important, we are reiterating our cash generation guidance of a Q4 annualized level of $200 million to $500 million. We are confident in achieving strong growth in installation activities through the year as the fundamental demand drivers of our business continue to be robust. Utility rates continue to rise, while storage and solar equipment costs are declining, and our operating efficiency continues to improve. Customers remain eager for clean, affordable and resilient energy to power their lives.

最重要的是，我們重申第四季現金產生的年化水準為 2 億至 5 億美元。由於我們業務的基本需求驅動力持續強勁，我們有信心在今年實現安裝活動的強勁成長。公用事業費率持續上升，而儲存和太陽能設備成本不斷下降，我們的營運效率不斷提高。客戶仍然渴望清潔、負擔得起且有彈性的能源來為他們的生活提供動力。

In the beginning of 2023, we oriented the business to be storage-first which increases the customer value proposition and lays the foundation for future value creation from grid services. This strategy has also allowed us to capitalize on regulatory changes better than others in the industry. In Q1, we installed storage on 50% of our new customers, up from a 15% attachment rate in the prior year. We installed 207-megawatt hours of storage in Q1, almost triple the year ago quarter.

2023年初，我們將業務定位為儲存優先，增加了客戶價值主張，為未來網格服務創造價值奠定了基礎。這項策略也使我們能夠比業內其他公司更好地利用監管變化。第一季度，我們為 50% 的新客戶安裝了存儲，高於去年 15% 的安裝率。我們在第一季安裝了 207 兆瓦時的儲存設備，幾乎是去年同期的三倍。

Storage systems provide increased customer value through enhanced resiliency and control, while providing higher margins for Sunrun. Our fleet of networked storage capacity has reached 1.5 gigawatt hours with 102,000 systems installed. Based on industry data, we represent about half of new storage installations in the United States and are gaining. In 2023, we were under 20% share of residential storage deployments across the U.S. And by Q4, we were approximately 45%.

儲存系統透過增強的彈性和控制力來增加客戶價值，同時為 Sunrun 提供更高的利潤。我們的網路儲存容量已達到 1.5 吉瓦時，安裝了 102,000 個系統。根據行業數據，我們約占美國新儲存安裝量的一半，並且正在增加。 2023 年，我們在美國住宅儲存部署中的份額不到 20%，到第四季度，我們的份額約為 45%。

Our fleet is growing in significance and is already at a scale that could replace multiple polluting peaker power plants. For instance, these resources could power a city like San Francisco for multiple hours and do so daily as batteries are recharged from the sun. While still in the early stages of commercializing these resources, we just announced 2 new record-setting grid service programs.

我們的機隊重要性不斷增強，其規模已經可以取代多個污染嚴重的尖峰發電廠。例如，這些資源可以為舊金山這樣的城市供電幾個小時，並且每天都可以透過太陽能充電。雖然這些資源仍處於商業化的早期階段，但我們剛剛宣布了 2 個新的創紀錄的網格服務計劃。

For the second year in a row, Sunrun will set a national record for the largest number of residential solar plus battery systems enrolled in a virtual power plant. Last year, we did a 30-megawatt program with PG&E. This year, we are launching a statewide demand-side grid support program that is about twice the size with more than 16,000 Sunrun customers. We also have now enrolled nearly 1,800 customers in our Puerto Rico virtual power plant. Our resources have been dispatched nearly a dozen times, helping to prevent rolling blackouts and keeping the power on for all Puerto Ricans, not just our customers. The fact that we are running these 2 successful programs shows that VPPs can rapidly scale all across the country.

Sunrun 將連續第二年創下虛擬發電廠中住宅太陽能+電池系統數量最多的全國記錄。去年，我們與 PG&E 合作實施了一個 30 兆瓦專案。今年，我們將啟動全州範圍內的需求面電網支援計劃，規模約為兩倍，涉及超過 16,000 名 Sunrun 客戶。我們現在也已在波多黎各虛擬發電廠註冊了近 1,800 名客戶。我們的資源已被調度了近十幾次，幫助防止輪流停電，並為所有波多黎各人（而不僅僅是我們的客戶）保持電力供應。我們正在運行這兩​​個成功的項目，這表明 VPP 可以在全國範圍內快速擴展。

Last month, a Brattle Group study concluded that virtual power plants could save California consumers $550 million per year. We also continue to innovate with AI, enhanced customer experiences, new products, adding batteries to existing systems, EV charging and of course, our early renewal opportunities. The team is busy innovating to extend Sunrun's differentiation in the market even as we dial up our focus on efficiency and cash generation.

上個月，Brattle Group 的一項研究得出結論，虛擬發電廠每年可為加州消費者節省 5.5 億美元。我們也持續利用人工智慧進行創新，增強客戶體驗，推出新產品，在現有系統中添加電池，電動車充電，當然還有我們的早期更新機會。儘管我們更加重視效率和現金生成，但團隊仍在忙於創新，以擴大 Sunrun 在市場上的差異化。

We are making clean, affordable and reliable energy accessible to families all across America with the most pro consumer offerings and delivering the best customer experience and service in the industry. Being the chosen trusted provider to deliver this clean energy future is critical. As a testament to our approach, our customer Net Promoter Scores at the time of installation continued to increase, exceeding 75 points this quarter. We are driving this great customer experience and investing in innovation while also dramatically increasing operating efficiencies.

我們透過最專業的消費者產品，為美國各地的家庭提供清潔、負擔得起和可靠的能源，並提供業界最佳的客戶體驗和服務。成為被選擇的值得信賴的供應商來實現清潔能源的未來至關重要。作為我們方法的證明，我們的客戶在安裝時的淨推薦值持續增加，本季超過了 75 分。我們正在推動這種卓越的客戶體驗並投資於創新，同時大幅提高營運效率。

Our crew labor productivity has improved by 5% compared to the prior year even as we more than tripled our mix of more complex battery jobs. Our efficiency gains installing systems with batteries are particularly impressive, improving 30% year-over-year. Overall head count in our installation organization is down 5 percentage points more than the change in volumes.

與前一年相比，我們的船員勞動生產力提高了 5%，儘管我們將更複雜的電池工作組合增加了兩倍多。我們安裝電池系統的效率提升尤其令人印象深刻，比去年同期提高了 30%。我們安裝組織的總人數比數量變化減少了 5 個百分點。

In addition, general and administrative costs have declined slightly year-over-year and continue to be a fraction of that of our peers, even as we accelerate the pace of innovation, highlighting the tremendous scale advantages we derive and sizable barriers to entry in this space. We are also driving increased efficiency and improved quality throughout the organization from leveraging artificial intelligence. We have already started using AI to improve the speed and accuracy of system design, pipeline management and material handling. We are increasingly encouraged by how AI can improve our operating efficiency and customer experience even further.

此外，即使我們加快創新步伐，一般和管理成本仍同比略有下降，並且仍然只是我們同行的一小部分，這凸顯了我們在這一領域獲得的巨大規模優勢和相當大的進入障礙。我們也利用人工智慧推動整個組織提高效率和品質。我們已經開始使用人工智慧來提高系統設計、管道管理和物料搬運的速度和準確性。人工智慧如何進一步提高我們的營運效率和客戶體驗，讓我們越來越受到鼓舞。

Growth in AI and the voracious energy consumption that comes with it will drive even greater need for Sunrun's fleet of solar and battery systems. The International Energy Agency forecasts power demand from data centers in the U.S. will increase 60 terawatt hours by 2026 to account for nearly 6% of total U.S. electricity demand. Electric grids will need to procure more power to meet this need, especially at peak times and distributed flexible renewable resources will be one of the solutions. Much of this growth is also coming from companies who are eager to use clean energy to meet their environmental objectives.

人工智慧的成長以及隨之而來的龐大能源消耗將推動對 Sunrun 太陽能和電池系統的更大需求。國際能源總署預測，到 2026 年，美國資料中心的電力需求將增加 60 太瓦時，占美國總電力需求的近 6%。電網需要採購更多的電力來滿足這一需求，特別是在高峰時段，分散式靈活的可再生資源將是解決方案之一。這種成長的大部分也來自渴望使用清潔能源來實現其環境目標的公司。

Before handing the call over to Danny, I want to take a moment to celebrate some of our people who truly embrace the power of solar energy to make a real difference in our world. Thank you to our leading teams in Houston, Texas, our top-ranked installation crew, led by Jonathan and direct-to-home sales team in the quarter based on safety, quality, battery attachment rates and customer experiences. They were all in Texas this quarter. Thank you all for your contributions and leadership at Sunrun.

在將電話轉交給丹尼之前，我想花點時間向我們的一些真正擁抱太陽能力量、為我們的世界帶來真正改​​變的員工表示祝賀。感謝我們在德克薩斯州休斯頓的領導團隊、由喬納森領導的頂級安裝團隊以及本季度基於安全、品質、電池安裝率和客戶體驗的直接到戶銷售團隊。本季他們都在德克薩斯州。感謝大家對 Sunrun 的貢獻與領導。

With that, let me turn over the call to Danny for our financial update.

接下來，讓我將電話轉給丹尼，以了解我們的財務最新情況。

Thank you, Mary.

謝謝你，瑪麗。

Today, I will cover our operating and financial performance in the quarter, along with an update on our capital markets activities and outlook. Turning first to the results for the quarter on Slide 9.

今天，我將介紹我們本季的營運和財務業績，以及我們資本市場活動和前景的最新情況。首先看投影片 9 的季度結果。

We have now installed over 102,000 solar and storage systems with storage attachment rates reaching 50% of installations nationally during the first quarter of 2024. We expect storage attachment rates to remain around this level throughout the remainder of the year. This higher mix of storage has driven improvements to our net subscriber value as backup storage offerings carry higher margins.

我們現已安裝了超過 102,000 個太陽能和儲存系統，2024 年第一季儲存安裝率達到全國安裝量的 50%。由於備份儲存產品的利潤率更高，這種更高的儲存組合推動了我們的淨用戶價值的提高。

During the quarter, we installed 207-megawatt hours of storage capacity, well above the high end of our guidance and almost triple the same quarter last year. Our total network storage capacity is now over 1.5 gigawatt hours. In the first quarter, solar energy capacity installed was approximately 177 megawatts, also above the high end of our guidance range of 165 to 175 megawatts. Customer additions were approximately 24,000, including approximately 22,000 subscriber additions. Our subscription mix reached 93% of deployments in the period, an increase of 92% -- from 92% last quarter and the highest level in many years.

本季度，我們安裝了 207 兆瓦時的儲存容量，遠高於我們指導的上限，幾乎是去年同一季度的三倍。我們的總網路儲存容量現已超過 1.5 吉瓦時。第一季度，太陽能裝置容量約為 177 兆瓦，也高於我們指導範圍 165 至 175 兆瓦的上限。新增客戶約 24,000 名，其中新增訂戶約 22,000 名。在此期間，我們的訂閱組合達到了 93% 的部署，比上季度的 92% 增長了 92%，是多年來最高的水平。

We ended Q1 with approximately 957,000 customers and 803,000 subscribers representing 6.9 gigawatts of network solar energy capacity, a 16% increase year-over-year. Our subscribers generate significant recurring revenue with most under 20- or 25-year contracts for the clean energy we provide. At the end of Q1, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, stood at over $1.4 billion, up 30% over the same period last year. We had an average contract life remaining of nearly 18 years.

截至第一季度，我們擁有約 957,000 名客戶和 803,000 名訂戶，代表 6.9 吉瓦的網路太陽能容量，年增 16%。我們的訂戶透過我們提供的清潔能源合約大多都在 20 年或 25 年以下，從而產生了可觀的經常性收入。截至第一季末，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 超過 14 億美元，比去年同期成長 30%。我們的平均合約期限剩餘近 18 年。

Turning to Slide 10. In Q1, subscriber value was approximately $50,800, and creation cost was approximately $38,900, delivering a net subscriber value of $11,891. This strong result was from increased efficiency and a beat on volumes. Our Q1 subscriber value and net subscriber value now reflect a blended investment tax credit of over 35% benefiting from expanded eligibility for the Energy Community's ITC adder and the portion of our deployed systems eligible for the low-income adder.

轉向幻燈片 10。這一強勁的業績得益於效率的提高和銷量的成長。我們第一季的用戶價值和淨用戶價值現在反映了超過35% 的混合投資稅收抵免，這得益於能源社區ITC 加法器的擴大資格以及我們部署的系統中有資格獲得低收入加法器的部分。

Total value generated which is the net subscriber value multiplied by the number of subscriber additions in the period was $262 million in the first quarter. Our present value-based metrics are presented using a 6% discount rate, but our financial underwriting already accounts for our current cost of capital, which was in the 7.6% area in Q1.

第一季產生的總價值為 2.62 億美元，即淨用戶價值乘以該期間新增用戶數量。我們目前基於價值的指標採用 6% 的折現率，但我們的財務核保已經考慮了我們目前的資本成本，第一季為 7.6%。

As a reminder, to enable ease of comparison across periods, we generally do not update the discount rate frequently. Instead, we provide advanced rate ranges that reflect current interest rates enabling investors to calculate the obtainable net cash unit margins on our deployments. In addition, we provide a pro forma net subscriber value using the capital costs observed for the quarter.

提醒一下，為了方便跨期間比較，我們一般不會頻繁地更新貼現率。相反，我們提供反映當前利率的高級利率範圍，使投資者能夠計算我們的部署中可獲得的淨現金單位利潤。此外，我們也使用本季觀察到的資本成本提供了預期淨訂戶價值。

At a 7.6% discount rate, net subscriber value was $6,593 and total value generated was $145 million. We expect additional tailwinds to net subscriber value in future periods from the following variety of factors: more favorable business mix, increased realization of ITC adders and lower costs from hardware price reductions, labor efficiency and operating leverage from strong sequential volume growth.

以 7.6% 的折扣率計算，淨用戶價值為 6,593 美元，產生的總價值為 1.45 億美元。我們預計，以下各種因素將在未來一段時間內對淨用戶價值產生額外的推動作用：更有利的業務組合、ITC 加法器的實現增加以及硬體降價帶來的成本降低、勞動力效率和強勁的銷量連續成長帶來的營運槓桿。

On Slide 11, we detailed the tailwinds from ITC adders and hardware costs. In Q1, we recognized a weighted average ITC of approximately 35%, the equivalent of approximately half of our systems qualifying for the energy communities or low-income adder. During the quarter, the government expanded the qualification criteria for the energy communities adder. Approximately 35% of our current installation is now qualified compared to 13% before the expansion. While the energy community adder expansion was favorable, our expectation for the portion of our systems that qualify for the low-income adder going forward has been lowered from 26% to 18% given the current inefficiencies in the program design and implementation.

在投影片 11 中，我們詳細介紹了 ITC 加法器和硬體成本的推動作用。在第一季度，我們確認加權平均 ITC 約為 35%，相當於我們的系統中約一半符合能源社區或低收入加法者的資格。本季度，政府擴大了能源社區加法者的資格標準。我們目前安裝的大約 35% 現已合格，而擴建前為 13%。雖然能源社區加法器擴張是有利的，但鑑於目前計劃設計和實施效率低下，我們對未來符合低收入加法器資格的系統部分的預期已從 26% 降低至 18%。

While we continue to receive proceeds from the energy communities adders, proceeds from the awarded low-income adders are delayed given the slow government process. Proceeds from domestic content adders are expected to be realized in the coming quarters. Guidance on what will qualify for the domestic content adder has been issued but we are still awaiting further clarity from additional rule-making processes sometime this year. Combined, these adders could represent up to $450 million or more in additional annual run rate cash proceeds.

雖然我們繼續從能源社區加法者那裡獲得收益，但由於政府進程緩慢，獲獎的低收入加法者的收益被推遲。國內內容添加商的收益預計將在未來幾季實現。關於哪些內容符合國內內容添加者資格的指南已經發布，但我們仍在等待今年某個時候其他規則制定流程的進一步明確。這些增加者加起來可能帶來高達 4.5 億美元或更多的額外年度運行率現金收益。

We continue to see decreasing prices for key hardware components, which are gradually flowing through our reported costs as we finish consuming our higher cost inventory. On a like-for-like basis, for a 7.5 kilowatt solar with backup battery system, by the end of this year, hardware costs are expected to decline by over 18% or nearly $2,500 per system from their peak in the second quarter of 2023. These beneficial trends may be obscured by an increasing mix of storage, which carries higher net margins but will increase hardware and install costs and therefore, increase creation costs.

我們繼續看到關鍵硬體組件的價格不斷下降，隨著我們消耗完成本較高的庫存，這些組件的價格逐漸流向我們報告的成本。在同類基礎上，對於帶有備用電池系統的 7.5 千瓦太陽能，到今年年底，硬體成本預計將比 2023 年第二季度的峰值下降 18% 以上，即每個系統近 2,500 美元這些有益的趨勢可能會被儲存組合的增加所掩蓋，儲存組合帶來更高的淨利潤，但會增加硬體和安裝成本，從而增加創建成本。

Additionally, we are monitoring recent developments with certain U.S. manufacturers petitioning for new tariffs. Modules, however, represent less than 10% of our total creation costs and the history of various trade disputes has demonstrated the impact has been manageable as global supply chain is dynamic over time.

此外，我們正在關注某些美國製造商申請新關稅的最新進展。然而，模組只占我們總製造成本的不到 10%，而且各種貿易爭端的歷史表明，由於全球供應鏈隨著時間的推移而動態變化，其影響是可控的。

Turning now to gross and net earning assets and our balance sheet on Slide 13. Gross earning assets were $15 billion at the end of the first quarter. Gross earning assets is the measure of cash flows we expect to receive from subscribers over time, net of operating and maintenance costs, distributions to tax equity partners and partnership flip structures, and distributions to project equity financing partners all discounted at a 6% unlevered capital cost.

現在轉向幻燈片 13 上的總盈利資產和淨盈利資產以及我們的資產負債表。總獲利資產是我們預計隨著時間的推移從認購者收到的現金流量的衡量標準，扣除營運和維護成本、對稅收股權合作夥伴和合夥企業翻轉結構的分配，以及對專案股權融資合作夥伴的分配，全部以6% 的無槓桿資本折現成本。

Net earning assets were $5.2 billion at the end of the first quarter, up approximately $200 million from the prior quarter. Net earning assets is gross earning assets plus cash less all debt. Net earning assets doesn't include inventory or other construction and progress assets or net derivative assets related to our interest rate swaps, all of which represent additional value.

第一季末淨利潤資產為 52 億美元，比上一季增加約 2 億美元。淨獲利資產是總獲利資產加上現金減去所有債務。淨利潤資產不包括庫存或其他建設和進度資產或與我們的利率掉期相關的淨衍生資產，所有這些都代表附加價值。

The value creation upside we expect from future grid services opportunities and selling additional electrification products and services to our customer base, including our storage retrofit offering, are not reflected in these metrics. We programmatically enter into interest rate hedges to insulate our capital costs from adverse near-term fluctuations. The vast majority of our debt is either fixed coupon long-dated securities, or floating rate loans that have been hedged with interest rate swaps. As such, we do not adjust the discount rate used in net earning assets to match current capital costs for new installations.

我們預期未來電網服務機會以及向客戶群銷售以外的電氣化產品和服務（包括我們的儲存改造產品）所帶來的價值創造優勢並未反映在這些指標中。我們有計劃地進行利率對沖，以使我們的資本成本免受不利的短期波動的影響。我們的絕大多數債務要么是固定息票長期證券，要么是透過利率掉期對沖的浮動利率貸款。因此，我們不會調整淨收益資產中使用的折現率來匹配新安裝的當前資本成本。

We ended the quarter with $783 million in total cash, a decrease of $205 million compared to the prior quarter. Q1, which is typically the weakest quarter for cash generation due to volume seasonality, was further impacted by onetime costs from financing activities we completed in the quarter, as we discussed on last quarter's call, as well as delayed timing of incentive monetization. Cash generation was negative $311 million in Q1, which included approximately $317 million of onetime costs and timing-related items as we have outlined on Slide 14. Excluding these items, adjusted cash generation was positive $6 million in the quarter.

本季結束時，我們的現金總額為 7.83 億美元，比上一季減少了 2.05 億美元。由於數量季節性，第一季通常是現金產生最弱的季度，正如我們在上季度電話會議中討論的那樣，該季度還受到我們在本季度完成的融資活動的一次性成本以及激勵貨幣化時間延遲的影響。第一季的現金產生量為負3.11 億美元，其中包括約3.17 億美元的一次性成本和時間相關項目，正如我們在投影片14 中概述的那樣。量為正600 萬美元。

The financing activities we opted to pursue in Q1 resulted in $107 million of onetime cash impact. These included fees paid for the 2030 convertible debt issuance and purchase of the cap call to mitigate dilution, fees paid on the extension of our recourse working capital facility and fees paid on the extension of our nonrecourse warehouse facility and an associated reduction to the facility's advance rate.

我們選擇在第一季進行的融資活動產生了 1.07 億美元的一次性現金影響。其中包括為2030 年可轉換債券發行和購買上限通知所支付的費用，以減輕稀釋度、為延長我們的追索權營運資本貸款而支付的費用、為延長我們的無追索權倉庫貸款而支付的費用以及該貸款預付款的相關減少速度。

In Q1, we made a significant transition from traditional tax equity where all cash is typically provided at or just before installations to tax credit transfer where funds for tax credits often come quarterly in arrears. This transition was primarily responsible for a reduction in Q1 tax equity proceeds of approximately $181 million.

在第一季度，我們從傳統的稅收公平（所有現金通常在安裝時或安裝前提供）到稅收抵免轉移（稅收抵免資金通常按季度拖欠）進行了重大轉變。這一轉變主要導致第一季稅收股權收益減少約 1.81 億美元。

We are working to close new funding that will resolve the working capital headwind, all of which we expect to close before the end of the quarter. With these closings, we will fully recover the working capital investment that we made in Q1. In Q1, we deployed systems that are expected to contribute $30 million in cash generation from the low-income ITC adder. While many systems have met all conditions, monetization remains delayed given the timing of government processes. Later this quarter, we are expecting to monetize the receipt of delayed ITC adders through a combination of additional tax equity funding and debt proceeds.

我們正在努力完成新的融資，以解決營運資金的不利問題，我們預計所有這些都將在本季末之前完成。透過這些交易，我們將完全收回第一季的營運資本投資。在第一季度，我們部署的系統預計將從低收入 ITC 加法器中產生 3,000 萬美元的現金。儘管許多系統已經滿足了所有條件，但考慮到政府流程的時間安排，貨幣化仍然被推遲。本季度晚些時候，我們預計透過額外的稅收股權融資和債務收益相結合，將延遲的 ITC 加法者收入貨幣化。

Turning to our capital markets activity. As we discussed last call, we were very active in Q1 arranging capital to support our growth and further optimize our balance sheet by extending maturities. It is prudent to extend facilities early to navigate potential and unexpected macroeconomic conditions and volatility. In February, we successfully extended and upsized our nonrecourse revolving senior warehouse facility to support our scale. This facility funds assets temporarily before we raise long-term financing, principally in the asset-backed securitization market. We increased the size by $550 million up from $1.8 billion to $2.35 billion and extended the maturity by approximately 3 years from April 2025 to February 2028.

轉向我們的資本市場活動。正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，我們在第一季非常積極地安排資本以支持我們的成長，並透過延長期限進一步優化我們的資產負債表。明智的做法是儘早擴大融資規模，以應對潛在的和意外的宏觀經濟狀況和波動。二月份，我們成功擴建和擴大了我們的無追索權循環高級倉庫設施，以支持我們的規模。在我們籌集長期融資（主要是在資產支持證券化市場）之前，該工具暫時為資產提供資金。我們將規模從 18 億美元增加到 23.5 億美元，增加了 5.5 億美元，並將期限從 2025 年 4 月延長到 2028 年 2 月約 3 年。

The effective credit spreads increase of 50 basis points was commensurate with recent movements in the securitization market for term out transactions with similar advance rates. The facility continues to have a diversified set of 9 relationship lenders.

有效信用利差增加了 50 個基點，與證券化市場近期類似預付率的期限到期交易的走勢一致。該機構繼續擁有 9 家多元化的關係貸款機構。

We also achieved certain other improved terms that afford more flexibility to fund our anticipated future products and geographic mix. Our team also continues to execute tax equity transactions including structures that facilitate ITC transfers to a deepening pool of large buyers.

我們也實現了某些其他改進條款，為我們預期的未來產品和地理組合提供了更大的靈活性。我們的團隊也繼續執行稅收股權交易，包括促進 ITC 向不斷擴大的大型買家轉移的結構。

As we discussed on the last few calls, the traditional tax equity market has been tighter recently which we believe is resolving now that tax equity investors have adapted their approaches to structuring deals in this new environment. In addition, we continue to build an active pipeline to sell tax credits to corporate buyers for ITCs that are generated when systems are placed into service.

正如我們在過去幾次電話會議中所討論的那樣，傳統稅務股權市場最近變得更加緊張，我們相信這一問題正在解決，因為稅務股權投資者已經調整了在這種新環境下構建交易的方法。此外，我們繼續建立一個積極的管道，向企業買家出售系統投入使用時產生的 ITC 稅收抵免。

As of today, closed transactions and executed term sheets provide us with expected tax equity capacity to fund over 331 megawatts of projects or subscribers beyond what was deployed through the first quarter. We expect to expand this runway during Q2.

截至今天，已完成的交易和已執行的條款清單為我們提供了預期的稅收股權能力，可以為超過第一季部署的超過 331 兆瓦的項目或用戶提供資金。我們預計在第二季擴大這條跑道。

Sunrun also had $593 million in unused commitments available on its nonrecourse senior revolving warehouse loans at the end of the quarter. This unused amount would fund approximately 214 megawatts of projects for subscribers. Our strong debt capital runway allows us to be selective in timing transactions.

截至本季末，Sunrun 的無追索權高級循環倉庫貸款還有 5.93 億美元未使用的承諾。這筆未使用的資金將為訂戶的約 214 兆瓦項目提供資金。我們強大的債務資本跑道使我們能夠選擇性地安排交易時間。

Since the start of the year, we have closed 2 ABS transactions. Sunrun's industry-leading performance as an originator and servicer of residential solar assets continues to provide deep access to attractively priced capital. In February, we closed an ABS transaction with a private credit investor and arranged subordinated debt financing on the portfolio. The $361 million nonrecourse senior debt was rated A-by Kroll and was priced with a 232.5 basis points spread. This demonstrated yet another improvement in capital costs, with spreads declining from our last securitization in September that was priced with a 240 basis point spread. We placed a $109 million subordinated loan on the portfolio as well.

自今年年初以來，我們已完成 2 筆 ABS 交易。 Sunrun 作為住宅太陽能資產的發起者和服務商，其領先業界的表現繼續為獲得價格有吸引力的資本提供深入的途徑。 2 月份，我們與一家私人信貸投資者完成了一項 ABS 交易，並為該投資組合安排了次級債務融資。這筆 3.61 億美元的無追索權優先債務被 Kroll 評為 A-，定價價差為 232.5 個基點。這顯示資本成本再次改善，利差較 9 月的上次證券化定價為 240 個基點利差下降。我們還在投資組合中放置了 1.09 億美元的次級貸款。

The all-in full stack weighted average cost of capital on this portfolio was approximately 7.5% and resulted in accumulative advance rate as measured against our contracted subscriber value metric of over 80%. The use of private credit investors shows the strong interest in our assets from a growing and broad set of investors. In April, we closed a $230 million securitization to refinance existing debt on a portfolio of seasoned assets. The nonrecourse senior debt was rated A by Kroll and was priced at a credit spread of 195 basis points, a 37.5 basis point improvement from our private securitization in February and 45 basis points lower than our securitization in September 2023. The latest execution represents the lowest spread achieved for similarly rated transactions across the sector since 2021.

此投資組合的全端加權平均資本成本約為 7.5%，並根據我們超過 80% 的合約使用者價值指標衡量，產生了累積預付率。私人信貸投資者的使用顯示越來越多且廣泛的投資者對我們的資產產生了濃厚的興趣。 4 月份，我們完成了 2.3 億美元的證券化，為成熟資產組合的現有債務進行再融資。無追索權優先債務被Kroll 評為A 級，信用利差定價為195 個基點，比2 月份的私募證券化提高了37.5 個基點，比2023 年9 月的證券化低了45 個基點。執行代表了最低水準自 2021 年以來，該行業類似評級交易所實現的價差。

The portfolio is jointly owned by National Grid and Sunrun following their project equity investment in 2017. With National Grid receiving the majority of cash flows through 2042, including the significant net cash proceeds from this refinancing. Importantly, however, this transaction highlights our continued deep access to capital at improving terms and demonstrates the favorable market for refinancing seasoned assets we have originated and serviced. This bodes well for the significantly sized portfolios of seasoned assets that we will refinance in the coming years.

該投資組合由國家電網和 Sunrun 在 2017 年進行專案股權投資後共同擁有。然而，重要的是，這項交易凸顯了我們繼續以改善的條件深入獲得資本，並證明了對我們發起和服務的經驗豐富的資產進行再融資的有利市場。這對於我們將在未來幾年進行再融資的規模龐大的經驗豐富的資產組合來說是個好兆頭。

Moving to the parent capital side. During Q1, we took actions to extend maturities and optimize our current balance sheet. In February, we closed an extension of our recourse working capital facility. We reduced the size from $600 million to $447.5 million with an option to upsize the facility to $477.5 million, prior to September 30, 2024. We amended the facility to extend the maturity from January 2025 to November 2025. We also included a feature that will further extend the maturity to March 2027 should we meet the requirements for this provision, which include addressing the maturity of the convertible notes due in February 2026. Also in February, we issued $483 million in convertible notes due in 2030. Since the issuance of the 2030 convertible notes, we have repurchased another $82 million of our 2026 convertible notes. To date, we have now spent $175 million to repurchase over $205 million of these notes. Less than half of the 2026 notes now remain outstanding. We will continue to be disciplined and selective with repurchases, given alternative high-yielding capital uses.

轉向母資本方。在第一季度，我們採取了延長期限並優化當前資產負債表的行動。二月份，我們關閉了追索性營運資金安排的延期。我們將融資規模從6 億美元減少到4.475 億美元，並可選擇在2024 年9 月30 日之前將融資規模擴大到4.775 億美元。年11 月。到期的4.83 億美元可轉換票據。迄今為止，我們已花費 1.75 億美元回購了超過 2.05 億美元的此類票據。目前，2026 年發行的票據中只有不到一半尚未發行。考慮到其他高收益資本用途，我們將繼續嚴格且選擇性地回購股票。

Our intent is to maintain a strong and healthy balance sheet. The recourse financing and bond repurchase activity in Q1, including all related fees, increased our cash by $102 million and increased our debt by $125 million. With continued repurchases of the 2026 convertible notes or retirement as far as maturity, we expect net recourse debt to be a little changed.

我們的目的是維持強勁和健康的資產負債表。第一季的追索融資和債券回購活動（包括所有相關費用）使我們的現金增加了 1.02 億美元，債務增加了 1.25 億美元。隨著2026年可轉換票據的持續回購或到期報廢，我們預計淨追索權債務將略有變動。

We have also prudently extended maturities while mitigating dilution with the capped call. When we think about our balance sheet, we prioritize a strong cash position and use of asset-level nonrecourse debt financing. This strategy provides the lowest cost capital to finance cash flow-producing assets backed by high credit consumers and to use parent recourse debt that is appropriately sized and balances maturity dates, cash interest costs and flexibility.

我們也謹慎地延長了期限，同時減輕了上限看漲期權的稀釋。當我們考慮資產負債表時，我們會優先考慮強大的現金狀況和使用資產級無追索權債務融資。該策略提供最低成本的資本，為高信用消費者支持的產生現金流的資產提供融資，並使用規模適當並平衡到期日、現金利息成本和靈活性的母公司追索債務。

Turning now to our outlook on Slide 17. The underpenetrated nature of our market gives us confidence we can sustain robust growth throughout this decade. In this strong long-term demand backdrop, our priority is to generate cash by continuing to increase customer values through growing storage adoption and other high-value products and services and by reducing costs by further driving efficiencies across the business.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 17 的展望。在這種強勁的長期需求背景下，我們的首要任務是透過增加儲存採用率和其他高價值產品和服務來繼續增加客戶價值，並透過進一步提高整個業務的效率來降低成本，從而產生現金。

While sales activities in Q1 were slightly less than we previously anticipated, we are seeing strong demand signals and expect a material pickup to occur in Q2, leading to an inflection point with meaningfully higher installations in the second half. Storage capacity installed is expected to be in the range of 215 to 225-megawatt hours in Q2. This represents 105% to 115% growth year-over-year. For the full year, we are reiterating our guidance for storage capacity installed to be in a range of 800-megawatt hours to 1 gigawatt hour, reflecting 40% to 75% growth year-over-year.

雖然第一季的銷售活動略低於我們先前的預期，但我們看到了強勁的需求訊號，並預計第二季材料將出現回升，導致下半年出現安裝量大幅增加的拐點。預計第二季裝置容量將在 215 至 225 兆瓦時之間。這意味著同比增長 105% 至 115%。對於全年，我們重申我們對裝置容量的指導意見是在 800 兆瓦時至 1 吉瓦時之間，年增 40% 至 75%。

Solar energy capacity installed is expected to be in a range between 190 and 200 megawatts in Q2. At the midpoint, this represents 10% growth from Q1. Because of the pulling of demand in California in early 2023, year-over-year comparisons are less relevant in Q2. We are confident that Q1 volumes will mark the low point in the year and we expect robust sequential growth into the rest of the year.

預計第二季太陽能裝置容量將在 190 至 200 兆瓦之間。從中點來看，這意味著較第一季成長了 10%。由於 2023 年初加州需求的拉動，第二季的年比比較意義不大。我們相信，第一季的銷售量將創下今年的低點，並預計今年剩餘時間將出現強勁的環比增長。

For the full year, we expect solar energy capacity installed year-over-year growth to be in the range of down 15% at the low end to flat at the high end. This updated range reflects recent sales activities and outlook. We believe this guidance still represents market share gains underpinned by the strength of our subscription offerings and our disciplined go-to-market approach.

就全年而言，我們預計太陽能裝置容量年增將在低端下降 15% 至高端持平的範圍內。此更新範圍反映了最近的銷售活動和前景。我們相信，這項指導仍代表著市場佔有率的成長，而這得益於我們訂閱服務的實力和嚴格的上市方式。

Our growth in the value we create with this volume will be much larger. We continue to forecast subscriber values will increase by greater than 10% in 2024 as we increase our mix of higher value offerings and input cost declines, resulting in growth in total value generated of greater than 10% in 2024.

我們透過這個數量創造的價值的成長將會大得多。我們繼續預測，隨著我們增加高價值產品組合和投入成本下降，2024 年訂戶價值將成長超過 10%，從而導致 2024 年產生的總價值成長超過 10%。

Turning to Slide 18. We remain committed to driving meaningful cash generation as we execute our margin focus and disciplined growth strategy. We are reiterating our cash generation outlook. We are guiding cash generation to be positive on a quarterly basis for the remainder of the year, with cash generation in Q4 at an annualized run rate of $200 million to $500 million. This run rate will be expanded upon on an annual basis into 2025. We have outlined our current set of assumptions underpinning this outlook on the bottom of Slide 18.

轉向投影片 18。我們重申我們的現金生成前景。我們預計，在今年剩餘時間內，每季的現金產生量將保持正值，第四季的現金產生量年化運作率為 2 億至 5 億美元。這一運行率將每年擴大到 2025 年。

The most notable variable is the realization of the domestic content adder. The low end of the guidance range assumes no domestic content adders while the high end assumes these adders are obtained. We currently expect a large portion of our storage systems to qualify for the domestic content adder. With that, let me turn it back to Mary.

最值得注意的變數是國內內容添加器的實作。指導範圍的低端假設沒有國內含量添加者，而高端則假設獲得了這些添加者。目前，我們預計我們的大部分儲存系統都符合國內內容添加器的資格。說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回瑪麗身上。

Thanks, Danny.

謝謝，丹尼。

I want to again express my appreciation to the entire Sunrun team. Your continued commitment providing our customers and communities with clean, affordable energy to power their lives, and to create value for all of our stakeholders is what drives us forward. Our rapid transition to a storage-first company is extending our differentiation, driving enhanced margins and delivering the best value to customers.

我想再次向整個 Sunrun 團隊表示感謝。您持續致力於為我們的客戶和社區提供清潔、負擔得起的能源來維持他們的生活，並為我們所有利益相關者創造價值，這是我們前進的動力。我們向儲存優先的公司的快速轉型正在擴大我們的差異化、提高利潤並為客戶提供最佳價值。

Operator, with that, let's open for the questions.

接線員，接下來我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩李（Brian Lee）。

First one was just on the reduction in solar volume outlook for the year here. It appears, I guess, strategic, you said earlier in the slides, just kind of focusing on profitable growth in storage, but then you also alluded to some market-related weakness, I guess, sales activity being a little bit slower. Can you maybe parse those 2 pieces out? How much of it is market related? How much of it is strategic on your own part? And then were there specific areas that you kind of pinpointed had the weakness or the nonstrategic sort of focus that you wanted to pull back from? And then I had a follow-up.

第一個是關於今年太陽能發電量前景的減少。我想，這似乎是戰略性的，您在幻燈片中早些時候說過，只是專注於存儲的盈利增長，但後來您也提到了一些與市場相關的弱點，我想，銷售活動有點慢。能解析出這兩部分嗎？其中有多少是與市場相關的？其中有多少是您自己的策略性內容？然後，您是否發現某些特定領域有弱點或您想要撤回的非策略重點？然後我進行了跟進。

Sure. Thanks, Brian. Great to hear from you. Yes, so to be clear, we really see Q1 marking the bottom, and we feel confident in the uptick in our outlook for the year. And you're absolutely right. As we have said, we continue to focus on our goals around profitability and cash generation and really being very strategic on volume. And with that, I would turn it, Paul, why don't you give a little bit more detailed response to some of Brian's questions?

當然。謝謝，布萊恩。很高興聽到你的消息。是的，需要明確的是，我們確實看到第一季已經觸底，並且我們對今年前景的上升充滿信心。你是完全正確的。正如我們所說，我們繼續專注於獲利能力和現金產生的目標，並且在數量上非常具有戰略意義。說到這裡，我想說，保羅，你為什麼不對布萊恩的一些問題給予更詳細的答案呢？

Yes, great question. So we underwent kind of a final evaluation of our market economics and the various routes that we have generating volume and did a final cut of volume that did not meet our target return threshold. And so we underwent that exercise, which is a component of the volume adjustment.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們對我們的市場經濟狀況和我們所擁有的發電量的各種路線進行了最終評估，並最終削減了未達到我們目標回報閾值的發電量。所以我們進行了這項練習，這是音量調整的一部分。

The other thing that we're seeing in the market is kind of this like new entrants kind of this ankle biter finance provider that comes in with aggressive pricing and it's been somewhat distracting to various channel partners or affiliate partners that we work with. And while we don't see any sustainable approach in their business model, and we've made a business practice in the past of purchasing their portfolios when they're unable to operate them because of the uneconomical approach that they take, there has been some distraction for our affiliate business.

我們在市場上看到的另一件事是，像新進入者這種咬腳踝的金融供應商，他們以激進的定價出現，這在某種程度上分散了與我們合作的各種通路合作夥伴或附屬合作夥伴的注意力。雖然我們在他們的商業模式中沒有看到任何可持續的方法，而且我們過去已經採取了一種商業做法，當他們因採取不經濟的方法而無法運營它們時，我們會購買他們的投資組合，但對我們的附屬業務造成一些幹擾。

Understood. Yes, that's super helpful. And then just...

明白了。是的，這非常有幫助。然後就...

Brian, just one last point on that. Just again, I'm sure you did notice it, but storage volume was retained, and we are really thrilled with the storage attachment rates and with our ability to retain that volume, which is very positive from a bottom line perspective.

布萊恩，最後一點。再說一遍，我相信您確實注意到了這一點，但是存儲量被保留了，我們對存儲附加率以及我們保留該卷的能力感到非常興奮，從底線的角度來看，這是非常積極的。

Yes, absolutely. It seems like the reallocation of any resources or capital should further derisk the storage number. That's awesome. Maybe one for you, Danny, and then I'll pass it on. Slide 18, this is super helpful, just kind of giving us some context low to high end. I know there's been a lot of questions between how do you get to 200 versus how you get to 500.

是的，一點沒錯。似乎任何資源或資本的重新分配都應該進一步降低儲存數量的風險。棒極了。也許給你一份，丹尼，然後我會把它轉遞給你。投影片 18，這非常有幫助，只是為我們提供了一些從低端到高端的背景資訊。我知道如何達到 200 分和如何達到 500 分之間存在很多問題。

If I look at this slide and a lot of the data you provided during the quarter on where you're tracking, it seems like you're already tracking at or ahead of the low end, the $200 million annualized based on these 3 bullets. Can you help us understand kind of the frame of going from 36 to 40 capital cost 8% to 7.5%. Like how much of is each of those buckets worth? I wouldn't presume it's 100, 100, 100, but is it that simple where if you get capital costs down to 7.5%, you get storage attached up 10%. Each one of those is worth 100, maybe just kind of helping to quantify what each of those buckets is worth to the cash flow generation.

如果我看一下這張投影片以及您在本季提供的有關您追蹤情況的大量數據，您似乎已經追蹤或領先於低端，即基於這 3 個專案的年化 2 億美元。您能否幫助我們了解從 36 到 40 的資本成本從 8% 到 7.5% 的框架。例如每個桶值多少錢？我不會假設它是 100、100、100，但是如果你將資本成本降低到 7.5%，你的附加儲存就會增加 10%，那麼簡單嗎？其中每一個都值 100，也許只是幫助量化每個桶子對現金流產生的價值。

Yes. Great question. And we absolutely did want to break this out as to what assumptions are associated with opposite ends of the range as we've been getting a lot of questions around that. So we wanted to be responsive to that.

是的。很好的問題。我們絕對想打破這個問題，即哪些假設與範圍的兩端相關，因為我們已經收到了很多關於這個問題的問題。所以我們希望對此做出回應。

As far as the magnitude of each of those primary drivers in the middle of Slide 18, capital cost are always capital costs, so not in order, but capital cost quarter point is between $40 million to $50 million depending more on the volume in the period, and that will range through the year as we grow volume. And this is most relevant to the Q4 exit rate. I would say it's probably closer to $50 million.

就幻燈片18 中間每個主要驅動因素的大小而言，資本成本始終是資本成本，因此排名不分先後，但資本成本四分之一點在4000 萬美元到5000 萬美元之間，更多地取決於該時期的數量，隨著我們銷量的增長，這一數字將貫穿全年。這與第四季的退出率最相關。我想說可能接近 5000 萬美元。

And then the point of ITC adders is probably south of $50 million, maybe somewhere in a plus or minus $40 million range per point. And then storage attachment rate, I don't have the exact translation, but I would say the first 2 are more meaningful at this point, given we're in a smaller range on storage attachment rate relative to where we started.

然後，ITC 加法器的點可能在 5000 萬美元以上，每個點可能在正負 4000 萬美元的範圍內。然後是儲存附件率，我沒有確切的翻譯，但我想說前兩個在這一點上更有意義，因為相對於我們開始的位置，我們的儲存附件率範圍較小。

Our next question comes from the line of Moses Sutton with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自摩西·薩頓 (Moses Sutton) 與法國巴黎銀行 (BNP Paribas) 的對話。

So the tax credit receivable of $181 million, is this transferability credit sold outside of a TE fund? Or is it still going through the typical cash flow to fall essentially partially replaced a tax equity proceeds that you would have gotten from some of those banks? And what could delay the $181 million maybe further than 2Q?

那麼 1.81 億美元的應收稅收抵免，這筆可轉讓性抵免是否在 TE 基金之外出售？或者它仍在經歷典型的現金流下降，基本上部分取代了您從其中一些銀行獲得的稅收權益收益？什麼可能會比第二季推遲 1.81 億美元？

Yes. So let me -- yes, I think the general expectation is to be caught up by the end of Q2. There's a basket here of like reasons for the delay. But primarily, it's the timing of when you sell the credit out of the fund to the buyer. So in traditional tax equity structures, the tax equity bank would be willing to both take the credit and give an advance ahead of the install or around the time of the install for that credit. Whereas today, the tax equity -- the tax credit buyer rather is buying in arrears, and that can trail the time of install. And as we're migrating structures, for structures that don't involve a traditional tax equity bank, the fronting, if you will, of that tax credit monetization is not happening to the degree it used to.

是的。所以讓我——是的，我認為普遍期望是在第二季末趕上。造成延誤的原因有很多類似。但最重要的是，這是您將基金中的信用出售給買方的時間。因此，在傳統的稅收股權結構中，稅收股權銀行願意接受信貸，並在安裝前或安裝前後預付該信貸。而今天，稅收公平——稅收抵免買家是拖欠購買的，這可能會落後於安裝時間。當我們遷移結構時，對於不涉及傳統稅收股權銀行的結構，稅收抵免貨幣化的前沿（如果你願意的話）並沒有像以前那樣發生。

Now some of it also vary based on the timing of when the individual buyer is transferring over proceeds for the purchase. They might do it monthly. They might do it quarterly. They might do it annually. I think we're seeing the market move to monthly and quarterly as opposed to annually, which is kind of where we started on one of the funds we've done recently.

現在，其中一些還根據個人買家轉移購買收益的時間而有所不同。他們可能每個月都會這樣做。他們可能每季進行一次。他們可能每年都會這樣做。我認為我們看到市場轉向每月和每季而不是每年，這就是我們最近所做的一隻基金的起點。

So I would say it's really that the frequency of payment is a big driver. Obviously, the payment is for both the base tax credit of 30% plus the adders. It's predominantly timing driven, and that's in the process of being resolved, as we said in the prepared remarks, as traditional tax equity banks are figuring it out and moving into these structures, the working capital dynamics are improving.

所以我想說，支付頻率確實是一個很大的驅動因素。顯然，支付的是 30% 的基本稅收抵免加上加數。這主要是時間驅動的，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，這個問題正在解決過程中，隨著傳統稅收股權銀行正在解決這個問題並進入這些結構，營運資金動態正在改善。

That's very helpful. And I guess, unrelated to timing, are you seeing any reduction in the tax equity capacity that your specific you normally use because Nova is increasing its participation in the market, maybe those banks want to limit their aggregate exposure to resi solar? Just thinking through if that's a possibility.

這非常有幫助。我想，與時間無關，您是否會看到您通常使用的稅收股權能力有所減少，因為 Nova 正在增加其對市場的參與度，也許這些銀行希望限制其對 Resi 太陽能的總敞口？只是想一下是否有這種可能性。

I think we're seeing generally, we're seeing capacity in the process of expanding radically. I think the biggest thing we see is just the value that we now provide to corporate buyers who basically are getting up to 10%, high single-digit type of discount. Immediately, they can put that coupon on their taxes. And I think we're going to see a large storm of repeat buyers come in once they figure out how to do this and get comfortable.

我認為我們總體上看到，我們看到產能正在急劇擴張。我認為我們看到的最重要的事情是我們現在為企業買家提供的價值，他們基本上可以獲得高達 10% 的高個位數折扣。他們可以立即將優惠券計入稅款。我認為，一旦他們弄清楚如何做到這一點並感到舒適，我們將會看到大量回頭客湧入。

And I think that's driving the expansion. We've noted traditional tax equity now for a couple of quarters to be tight. I think that dynamic still presents to some degree. But I think as we're moving to hybrid structures, net-net, we're seeing a big expansion in capacity.

我認為這正在推動擴張。我們注意到傳統的稅收公平性現在幾季都比較緊張。我認為這種動態在某種程度上仍然存在。但我認為，隨著我們轉向混合結構、網絡-網絡，我們看到容量的大幅擴張。

Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler 的對話。

So maybe first one is for Danny. I think -- please correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you just said $40 million for ITC point for the domestic content adder. What -- and so the crust of my question is what specifically should we be looking for once the Department of Treasury releases guidance, that would say, okay, this is fully derisked?

所以也許第一個是給丹尼的。我想——如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我想你剛才說國內內容添加器的 ITC 積分為 4000 萬美元。那麼我的問題的核心是，一旦財政部發布指導意見，我們應該具體尋找什麼，也就是說，好吧，這已經完全消除了風險？

And you're referencing the domestic content or?

你指的是國內內容還是？

Yes, for the domestic content, yes.

是的，對於國內內容來說，是的。

Yes. I think it's eligibility, it's the basis of calculation. I think we have, as we've noted before, we already -- in the case of batteries, we buy batteries that are made domestically. Module supply, I think that's in the works. So as we kind of get the domestic supply that we think based on past guidance is technically eligible, the rulemaking around how you specifically attribute things in the calculation will matter. And I don't think we have yet full clarity there. So we're in a bit of a range. And as soon as we see some additional guidance, we'll be able to narrow that range is our hope. And that's been a hope, unfortunately, too long, but we're hopeful that is very soon.

是的。我認為這是資格，這是計算的基礎。我認為，正如我們之前指出的那樣，就電池而言，我們已經購買了國內製造的電池。模組供應，我認為正在進行中。因此，當我們根據過去的指導獲得我們認為在技術上合格的國內供應時，圍繞如何在計算中具體歸因的規則制定將很重要。我認為我們還沒有完全弄清楚這一點。所以我們處於一個範圍內。我們希望一旦看到一些額外的指導，我們就能夠縮小這個範圍。不幸的是，這是一個希望太久了，但我們希望這很快就會實現。

I guess maybe just asking in a little -- a bit of a different way. If batteries alone qualify, would that be enough? Or do you need batteries and modules to qualify?

我想也許只是用一種不同的方式來提問。如果光是電池就合格，就足夠了嗎？或者您需要電池和模組才能獲得資格？

Yes. We -- again, short of the guidance, we've taken a preliminary view that on most battery installs, the batteries should qualify us. However, again, we have to punch through all the details and firm up that view. And on solar only, we'll need module. And in some cases, we might also need inverter. There could be other combinations involving balance of system components like racking on the solar only to meet the test -- to meet the minimum threshold.

是的。再次，在缺乏指導的情況下，我們初步認為，在大多數電池安裝中，電池應該符合我們的要求。然而，我們必須再次仔細研究所有細節並堅定這一觀點。僅在太陽能方面，我們需要模組。在某些情況下，我們可能還需要逆變器。可能還有其他涉及系統組件平衡的組合，例如太陽能支架只是為了滿足測試 - 滿足最低閾值。

I appreciate the color there. And then just my second question, just again back to the discussion on the newer entrants with the uneconomic offerings. Fully appreciate the focus on cash in (inaudible) volumes, that's definitely the right call.

我很欣賞那裡的顏色。然後是我的第二個問題，再次回到關於新進入者提供不經濟產品的討論。完全理解對現金（聽不清楚）數量的關注，這絕對是正確的選擇。

But just wondering how you handicap the risk that some of these headwinds either continue or potentially accelerate in 3Q or 4Q? Just -- I'm just trying to make sure that we're not having another call in August, and there's another guidance cut on the solar side.

但只是想知道如何降低這些不利因素在第三季或第四季繼續或可能加速的風險？只是——我只是想確保我們不會在八月再次接到電話，並且太陽能方面的指導方針也會再次被削減。

Yes, great question. I think we feel really confident about the guidance that we're providing on the volume side and that we're taking a conservative view with the guidance range adjustment. I think in the history of the business, we've seen kind of irrational behavior in different segments throughout time as different areas have gained attraction. So we've seen really low install prices. We've seen really attractive sales commissions, and now we're seeing it in capital providers. And so it's something we have a lot of confidence in our ability to navigate.

是的，很好的問題。我認為我們對在數量方面提供的指導非常有信心，我們對指導範圍調整採取保守的看法。我認為在商業史上，隨著不同領域的吸引力的增加，我們在不同的領域看到了一些非理性的行為。所以我們看到了非常低的安裝價格。我們已經看到了非常有吸引力的銷售佣金，現在我們在資本提供者身上也看到了這一點。因此，我們對自己的駕馭能力充滿信心。

I think the key component for us is the affiliate partner business we have deep and strong relationships with a few key partners and continue to see robust opportunities with them. The rest of our business is captive sales force that's largely insulated from this competitive risk.

我認為我們的關鍵組成部分是聯盟合作夥伴業務，我們與一些關鍵合作夥伴建立了深厚而牢固的關係，並繼續看到與他們的巨大機會。我們其餘的業務是自營銷售隊伍，基本上不受這種競爭風險的影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的安德魯·佩科科（Andrew Percoco）。

So I guess just to start out, and apologies if this has been asked already, but I think it's clear that some of your peers in the space are coming under some pressure here. And I'm just curious if you've seen any impacts to your ability to find non-recourse project level capital. Have the conversations changed at all? Have the terms changed at all in those deals as a result of some of the disruptions you're seeing across the space?

所以我想只是開始，如果已經有人問過這個問題，我深表歉意，但我認為很明顯，這個領域的一些同行在這裡面臨著一些壓力。我只是很好奇您是否看到了對您尋找無追索權項目級資本的能力的任何影響。對話有什麼變化嗎？由於您在整個領域看到的一些混亂，這些交易中的條款是否發生了變化？

Yes. Good question. We get underwritten. First, we get underwritten on asset quality. And I think asset quality has been great, and our servicing level has been great. So we also get underwritten on sponsor quality, and we've been meeting and passing those tests. So to underscore that, we did talk about, and obviously, it's been news for some time, the extension of our nonrecourse warehouse loan, which is now about $2 billion and almost 10 lenders, and lenders who -- many of whom -- well, all of whom kind of extended and several of whom also came up in size in the February time frame. And of course, that is a group of lenders that are seeing all the visibility on the turnout that we do. And of course, in that regard, we have 2 good data points recently, one involving the public market with a seasoned pool of assets. So those have been running for about 7 ,8 years in duration. They've been maintained well. They're performing and we got the spread lower from the prior transaction we did in the private market that we closed in February.

是的。好問題。我們得到承保。首先，我們在資產品質上得到承保。我認為資產品質非常好，我們的服務水準也非常好。因此，我們也獲得了贊助商品質的承保，並且我們一直在滿足並通過這些測試。因此，為了強調這一點，我們確實討論過，而且顯然，這已經成為新聞有一段時間了，我們的無追索權倉庫貸款的延期，目前約為20 億美元，有近10 個貸方，而貸方——其中許多人——很好，所有這些都有點延長，其中一些還在二月的時間範圍內擴大了規模。當然，這是一群像我們一樣看到投票率的所有可見性的貸款人。當然，在這方面，我們最近有兩個很好的數據點，其中一個涉及擁有經驗豐富的資產池的公開市場。所以這些已經運行了大約 7 ,8 年。它們一直保養得很好。他們的表現很好，而且我們的利差比我們在二月關閉的私人市場上進行的先前交易要低。

So we're seeing a broadening of participation in the private credit market. We're also seeing a continuation of good track record and performance in getting deals done in the public ABS market. So we're not seeing any sort of issues in that regard.

因此，我們看到私人信貸市場的參與範圍不斷擴大。我們也看到在公開 ABS 市場完成交易方面繼續保持良好的記錄和表現。所以我們在這方面沒有看到任何問題。

Over the company's history, like a flight to quality mindset has generally benefited us.

在公司的歷史上，追求品質的心態普遍使我們受益。

Yes, definitely. Okay. That all makes sense. And maybe as a second follow-up question, maybe more of a strategy question. But just kind of curious what you see in terms of battery retrofit opportunities. Now that battery supply is more readily available, costs have come down a lot. Obviously, growth in solar has slowed a little bit. Is there an opportunity to just go back to some of your customers in that batteries? And what would that look like from a cash perspective? Would that impact? Would that be positive or negative to near-term cash generation?

當然是。好的。這一切都是有道理的。也許作為第二個後續問題，也許更多的是一個策略問題。但只是有點好奇你在電池改造機會上看到了什麼。現在電池供應更容易取得，成本也下降了很多。顯然，太陽能的成長有所放緩。有沒有機會用這些電池回到你的一些客戶那裡？從現金角度來看，這會是什麼樣子？會有影響嗎？這對於短期現金產生是正面還是負面？

Yes, great question. Yes, we totally agree and, in fact, have already launched -- at the beginning of the year, we launched a storage retrofit program that's doing very well. We also, as you know, launched our first phase of our renewal pilot. We've also launched a repowering program and a renewal program combined with storage retrofit.

是的，很好的問題。是的，我們完全同意，事實上，我們已經在今年年初啟動了一項儲存改造計劃，效果非常好。如您所知，我們也啟動了更新試點的第一階段。我們還啟動了重新供電計劃和與儲存改造相結合的更新計劃。

So yes, we see tremendous opportunity to really focus in on and grow the storage side of the business. And as I also described, the other incredible tertiary benefit of that is that also really provides us with much more value from a grid services perspective longer term because every solar customer that we then attach storage to becomes a customer that can potentially participate in grid services program.

所以，是的，我們看到了真正專注於並發展儲存業務的巨大機會。 And as I also described, the other incredible tertiary benefit of that is that also really provides us with much more value from a grid services perspective longer term because every solar customer that we then attach storage to becomes a customer that can potentially participate in grid services程式.

So yes, we are very bullish on it. We've rolled out programs. We're seeing good numbers and uptakes and we're excited about the impact. And one of the reasons that, again, we feel really good about our storage guide.

所以是的，我們非常看好它。我們已經推出了計劃。我們看到了良好的數字和使用率，我們對其影響感到興奮。這也是我們對我們的儲存指南感到非常滿意的原因之一。

Our next question comes from the line of James West with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 James West 和 Evercore ISI 的路線。

Mary -- and I hear you guys on your confidence that we bottomed here and 1Q is the low point for the year. But could you maybe provide a little color on in the states where you operate, where you're seeing the most growth, the most recovery, the faster recovery rates and maybe where things aren't recovered fast?

瑪麗——我聽到你們相信我們已經觸底，第一季是今年的最低點。但是，您能否提供一些關於您開展業務的州的信息，您看到哪些州增長最快，恢復最快，恢復速度更快，也許情況恢復不快？

Yes. I think we continue to see really robust return to volume in California and believe that we're gaining market share inside that market, which is really strategic for us, obviously, from a solar volume perspective, but as well from a future grid service perspective. Another really exciting market for us is Texas, and we've been having geographic expansion inside the state and are quite excited about that market as well. So those are 2 really promising big growth markets for us. The third I would list is Illinois as well.

是的。我認為我們繼續看到加州的發電量恢復強勁，並相信我們正在該市場內獲得市場份額，這對我們來說確實具有戰略意義，顯然，從太陽能發電量的角度來看，而且從未來電網服務的角度來看。對我們來說另一個真正令人興奮的市場是德克薩斯州，我們一直在該州內進行地理擴張，並且對該市場也感到非常興奮。因此，這對我們來說是兩個真正有前途的巨大成長市場。我要列出的第三個也是伊利諾州。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. Danny, you gave some numbers around the equipment -- declines in equipment costs and they're still working through some higher cost inventory. By the end of the year, I think you said down 18% from the peak. Does that incorporate all the higher cost inventory being in the field and out of your inventory?

知道了。好的。這就說得通了。然後也許只是快速跟進。丹尼，你提供了一些有關設備的數字——設備成本下降，他們仍在處理一些成本較高的庫存。到今年年底，我想你說比高峰下降了 18%。這是否包括現場和庫存外的所有較高成本庫存？

Yes. The timing for that as you continue to track our inventory balance, you've seen it fall quite a bit. And we've guided to Q2 being most of the way there in terms of realization of the lower cost purchase activity we've been seeing late last year and this year. Some of that -- there will be a residual that gets fully, fully recognized in Q3. But we're nearly there in Q2 in terms of the expense recognition of the lower cost equipment we've been buying.

是的。當您繼續追蹤我們的庫存餘額時，您會發現它下降了很多。我們預計第二季將在實現去年年底和今年看到的較低成本採購活動方面取得進展。其中一些——在第三季將有一個殘差得到充分、充分的認可。但就我們所購買的低成本設備的費用確認而言，我們在第二季已經接近實現目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的普拉尼思·薩蒂什 (Praneeth Satish)。

So if we think about 2025, it seems like many of the assumptions that you laid out for your cash generation forecast between the low and high end seems like many of those assumptions will play out in 2025 between battery supply shifting domestic, getting more clarity from treasury and maybe interest rates coming down a bit. So I mean, I recognize you're not giving 2025 guidance right now. But maybe if you could just talk about the puts and takes to consider as we look out another year to cash generation.

因此，如果我們考慮 2025 年，您為低端和高端之間的現金產生預測所做的許多假設似乎將在 2025 年電池供應轉移到國內之間發揮作用，從國債和利率可能會略有下降。所以我的意思是，我知道您現在沒有提供 2025 年指導。但也許你可以談談在我們展望新一年的現金產生時要考慮的看跌期權和看跌期權。

Yes. I think the one we put here at the top of the assumption is those adders, right? The adders we have -- now we have energy community and low-income running. There's obviously been some movement between the buckets. And net-net, we've seen that percentage climb since the last quarter. And domestic content is a matter of time for that -- to whatever extent we get the upside and over what period, it's just a matter of time for that to arise. And we've been cautious in our planning around domestic content, but we do expect that will be a driver we carry into 2025.

是的。我認為我們放在假設頂部的是那些加法器，對嗎？我們擁有的加法器 - 現在我們有能源社區和低收入運作。顯然，桶之間有一些移動。自上個季度以來，我們看到這一百分比有所上升。國內內容的出現只是時間問題——無論我們在多大程度上以及在多長時間內獲得優勢，這都只是時間問題。我們對國內內容的規劃一直持謹慎態度，但我們確實預期這將成為我們進入 2025 年的驅動力。

Interest rates, as you see here, we're expressing in a range of 7.5% to 8%. We are not assuming a set of major declines in interest rates. We've seen base rates go up. We've seen credit spreads improved recently and we've generally held for most of the last few quarters within this range. So story there, again, is carrying this range of cost of capital into 2025 will allow us to also carry the magnitude of cash generation we're planning on.

正如您在此處看到的，我們表示的利率範圍為 7.5% 至 8%。我們並不假設利率會出現一系列大幅下降。我們已經看到基本利率上升。我們看到信用利差最近有所改善，並且在過去幾個季度的大部分時間裡我們基本上都保持在這個範圍內。因此，這裡的故事再次表明，將這一範圍的資本成本延續到 2025 年，將使我們能夠實現我們計劃的現金產生規模。

And then the third one is keeping that storage attachment rate where it is and slightly growing that even more over time. And working to further penetrate markets with so far lower penetration rates in storage. I think we'll continue to push for that as well to hopefully grow the range as we move into 2025.

第三個是保持儲存附件率不變，並隨著時間的推移略有增長。並努力進一步滲透迄今為止儲存滲透率較低的市場。我認為我們將繼續推動這一目標，並希望在進入 2025 年時擴大產品範圍。

Great. And just to make sure we clarify one thing, the batteries that we have been installing over the course of the year are those that we expect will qualify for the domestic content adder. So while you cannot monetize those until the guidance is sufficient and obviously confirms our expectations that would then make retroactive adders possible for the 2024 installations. Now there could be puts and takes and delays in getting that retroactive credit, but we do not need to wait for domestic content and batteries to show up, we are already installing those that we expect are likely to qualify for the guidance.

偉大的。為了確保我們澄清一件事，我們在這一年中安裝的電池是我們預計將有資格獲得國內內容添加器的電池。因此，雖然您無法將這些貨幣化，但直到指南足夠並且明顯證實了我們的預期，然後才能在 2024 年安裝追溯加法器。現在，獲得追溯信用可能會出現延遲和延遲，但我們不需要等待國內內容和電池出現，我們已經在安裝那些我們預計可能符合指導資格的內容。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And maybe just staying on batteries. I mean, you kind of addressed it, but you're 50% attach rate now, it looks like you're assuming that ratio to be flat for the balance of the year. So -- just the first question is why, how come it's not continuing to creep higher?

知道了。不，這很有幫助。也許只是繼續使用電池。我的意思是，你已經解決了這個問題，但你現在的附加率是 50%，看起來你假設這一比率在今年剩餘時間裡保持不變。所以——第一個問題是為什麼，為什麼它沒有繼續攀升？

And then second, what scenarios would you need to see happen to get it to that 60% or higher range? I mean because it does look like you're close to maxing out the attach rate in California. So what do you need to see to get the rates higher for the rest of the country?

其次，您需要看到什麼情況才能達到 60% 或更高的範圍？我的意思是因為看起來你確實已經接近最大化加州的附加率。那麼，您需要注意什麼才能提高該國其他地區的利率呢？

Well, I think as we talked about, we continue to see storage attachment rate increasing. Yes, as we look to the future, I think over time, we could absolutely see them go above 50%. But what we've been looking at is landing when you look at like the entire country and all of the markets we're in, landing at about that percentage.

嗯，我認為正如我們所討論的，我們繼續看到儲存附件率不斷增加。是的，當我們展望未來時，我認為隨著時間的推移，我們絕對可以看到它們超過 50%。但我們一直在關注的是，當你觀察整個國家和我們所在的所有市場時，就會達到這個百分比。

But absolutely, like my view from a grid perspective is that you'll start to see other parts of the country moving towards a more different tariff schemes that might make storage more attractive for customers as well as grid reliability issues that will make storage more attractive for customers. But again, we also see a tremendous like attach rate storage program as well. So we're really excited about the opportunity to also go back to our existing customer base and attach storage.

但絕對的是，就像我從電網角度的觀點一樣，你將開始看到該國其他地區採取更加不同的關稅方案，這可能會使儲存對客戶更具吸引力，而電網可靠性問題將使儲存更具吸引力為客戶。但同樣，我們也看到了一個龐大的附加率儲存程式。因此，我們非常高興有機會回到我們現有的客戶群並附加儲存。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自約瑟夫·奧沙 (Joseph Osha) 與古根漢合夥人 (Guggenheim Partners) 的合作。

Kind of 2 related questions. First, looking at the adjusted Q1 '24 cash generation number. I see that you're talking about an adjusted number that's flat there, not to be a stick in the mud. You did have a nice tailwind issuing this 2030 converted, not taking the '26 back in. So I guess what I'm asking first question is are you asserting here that on an ongoing basis, do you think Q1 cash generation can be flattish? And then I have a follow-up.

2個相關問題。首先，看看調整後的 24 年第一季現金產生數量。我知道你說的是一個調整後的數字，該數字是平坦的，而不是陷入困境。你確實有一個很好的順風車，發布了這個2030年的轉換，而不是把'26重新納入。 ，你認為第一季的現金產生會持平嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So one clarification is the issuance of the new convert and any proceeds from that we would back out from cash generation as we've defined, we would do because we don't give ourselves credit and cash generation for any corporate capital raises. So that number, obviously, that drove the -- while that drove the cash balance, it did not drive the cash generation number because we backed it out.

是的。因此，需要澄清的是，發行新的轉換債券以及我們將從現金產生中收回的任何收益，正如我們所定義的那樣，我們會這樣做，因為我們不會為任何公司融資提供信貸和現金產生。顯然，這個數字推動了現金餘額的成長，但它並沒有推動現金產生的數字，因為我們支持了它。

But what we did incur was the -- were all the fees related to the transaction. That was $51 million on the convert, which is all we're putting back in the pro forma. So I would say, as far as -- and then, of course, there's a list of other items like the warehouse facility, advance rates, older related fees. But if you look at the pro forma, 2/3 of it is the tax equity, tax credit, kind of the tax credit transfers of $181 million in the low-income ITC adder of $30 million. And we've said we do expect to recover most or all of that by the end of the quarter. So that's our plan, which would imply a quarter of substantial cash generation coming to offset that.

但我們確實承擔了與交易相關的所有費用。轉換成本為 5,100 萬美元，這是我們在預計中投入的全部資金。所以我想說的是，當然，還有一系列其他項目，例如倉庫設施、預付款、舊的相關費用。但如果你看看預估的數據，其中 2/3 是稅收公平、稅收抵免，相當於 1.81 億美元的稅收抵免轉移到低收入 ITC 的 3000 萬美元加法中。我們已經說過，我們確實希望在本季末之前恢復大部分或全部。這就是我們的計劃，這意味著將產生四分之一的大量現金來抵消這種影響。

Okay. And then just as a follow-on, we spent a lot of time talking about this annualized 200 to 500 number, which is great. But it's not going to help as much if we just give it all back in Q1 '25. So I guess what I'm trying to understand that you put in your comments that there's going to be positive Q3 '23 to Q3 '24 generation. How should we think about that level of Q4 to Q4, Q1 to Q1, future poising. What should we think about the sustainable annualized rate of cash generation? Because again, the Q4 number is great. But if we give it all back in Q1 of '25, it doesn't help.

好的。然後作為後續，我們花了很多時間討論這個年化 200 到 500 的數字，這很棒。但如果我們只是在 25 年第一季將其全部歸還，那不會有多大幫助。所以我想我想理解你在評論中所說的，23 年第 3 季到 24 年第 3 季將會出現正面的變化。我們應該如何看待 Q4 到 Q4、Q1 到 Q1 的程度、未來的平衡。我們該如何看待現金產生的可持續年化率？因為第四季的數字很棒。但如果我們在 25 年第一季將其全部歸還，那也無濟於事。

Yes. I think we expect that the annualized run rate delivery to be sustainable and not timing driven. I think that's the most important thing. Now there will be normal fluctuations. If you look back at our results, there is seasonal fluctuation. But over a trailing 4-quarter period, we expect to continue the number, so -- or the trend line. So I think deal timing, seasonality, those things will still matter. But if we kind of zoom out and look over 4 quarters, that's the annualized run rate kind of thinking and framework that we're bringing here to the guide.

是的。我認為我們預計年化運行率的交付是可持續的，而不是時間驅動的。我認為這是最重要的。現在會有正常的波動。如果你回顧我們的結果，你會發現有季節性波動。但在過去的四個季度中，我們預計這一數字或趨勢線將持續下去。所以我認為交易時機、季節性這些因素還是很重要。但如果我們縮小範圍並查看四個季度，這就是我們在指南中引入的年化運行率的思維和框架。

I would also just add to that -- I would also just add to that, Danny, that we also are doing a number of things like what our retrofit program, our renewal program, that we are thinking about in the context of how we can also utilize those programs to supplement typically low quarters from a seasonality perspective. So that is also something we're thinking about and working on strategically as we think about Q1 '25 and going forward.

我還要補充一點——丹尼，我還要補充一點，我們也在做一些事情，比如我們的改造計劃、我們的更新計劃，我們正在考慮如何能夠從季節性角度來看，還利用這些計劃來補充通常較低的季度。因此，這也是我們在考慮 25 年第一季及未來策略時所考慮和進行的工作。

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 Philip Shen 和 ROTH MKM 的對話。

First one is on the impact of AI-based load growth on your business. For example, ERCOT power forwards have moved up 60% in the last 12 months. CAISO has been similar. When do these flow through, I mean the retail pricing and affect your pricing power?

第一個是基於人工智慧的負載成長對您的業務的影響。例如，ERCOT 大前鋒在過去 12 個月內上升了 60%。 CAISO 也有類似的情況。這些何時流通，我指的是零售定價並影響您的定價能力？

Yes, that's a great question. From our perspective, strategically, we see what's happening with load growth as being really directionally positive, largely because there's going to be -- we already see this, but there's going to be capacity challenges at the utility level, at the regional level. And so again, growing our fleet of storage plus solar assets, we believe will provide valuable and will be a meaningful resource. Relative to how that is going to flow through from a rate perspective, I would say there's nothing we've seen so far that suggests that the rate is -- that the utility grid infrastructure has a path towards becoming more stronger from an economic perspective. So there's massive spend needed at the transmission level, at the project level and at the distribution level.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。從我們的角度來看，從策略上講，我們認為負荷成長的情況確實具有積極的方向性，這主要是因為我們已經看到了這一點，但在公用事業層面、區域層面將會面臨容量挑戰。因此，我們相信，透過擴大我們的儲存和太陽能資產，我們將提供有價值且有意義的資源。相對於從費率角度來看，這個過程將如何發展，我想說，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何跡象表明，從經濟角度來看，公用電網基礎設施有一條變得更加強大的道路。因此，在輸電層面、專案層面和配電層面都需要大量支出。

So again, I think there's going to be real pressure on utility rates in the future as this happens, and it also provides an opportunity for Sunrun and our assets to be helpful in the solution.

再說一次，我認為，當這種情況發生時，未來的公用事業費率將面臨真正的壓力，這也為 Sunrun 和我們的資產提供了一個機會來幫助解決問題。

Great. Shifting to the impact of new entrants in the lease market. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color. You've shared some in the past. Have you felt this increased competition offset by Nova and SunPower situations? Is there anything that has changed in the sense that these new market entrants, which are mostly corporate or PE-backed have started to enter into an asset class that was previously very fringy or not institutional quality?

偉大的。轉向租賃市場新進者的影響。我想知道你是否能給我們多一點色彩。您過去分享過一些。您是否認為 Nova 和 SunPower 的情況抵消了這種日益激烈的競爭？這些新的市場進入者（主要是企業或私募股權投資支持的）已經開始進入以前非常邊緣或不具備機構品質的資產類別，從某種意義上說，有什麼變化嗎？

Yes. I think for us, we continue to see them operate kind of how we've seen it historically. I think they're trying to figure out the business model. When you look at owning assets for 25 years and forecasting out service costs and understanding asset ownership, consumer experience, customer service, there's a lot to managing these assets, and we are extremely confident having financed dozens of billions of dollars of this stuff that we know how to price it.

是的。我認為對我們來說，我們繼續看到它們以我們歷史上看到的方式運作。我認為他們正在嘗試找出商業模式。當你回顧25 年擁有資產並預測服務成本並了解資產所有權、消費者體驗、客戶服務時，你會發現管理這些資產有很多工作要做，我們非常有信心為這些資產提供了數百億美元的資金知道如何定價。

And while we see annoyances from these partners, we don't view it as like a durable threat. We view it as some short-term frustration to volume.

雖然我們看到這些合作夥伴的煩惱，但我們不認為這是一個持久的威脅。我們認為這是對成交量的一些短期挫敗。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自科林·魯施（Colin Rusch）和奧本海默（Oppenheimer）的對話。

Can you speak to the performance of your VPPs from a monetization perspective versus your internal expectations when you guys enter into that market?

當你們進入該市場時，你們能否從貨幣化角度談談你們的 VPP 的表現以及你們的內部預期？

Yes. We're really pleased. As I described, again, we're -- we've got enrolled 16,000 Sunrun customers in the CalReady program that we rolled out, 1,800 on the PowerOn Puerto Rico. Our growing experience with good services increases our conviction that we can realize $2,000 or more in per customer NPV from these assets.

是的。我們真的很高興。正如我所描述的，我們已經在我們推出的 CalReady 計畫中註冊了 16,000 名 Sunrun 客戶，其中 1,800 名客戶註冊了 PowerOn Puerto Rico。我們在優質服務方面不斷累積的經驗增強了我們的信念，即我們可以從這些資產中為每位客戶實現 2,000 美元或更多的 NPV。

And then as you see higher storage attach rates, are there meaningful adjustments to your inverter storage hardware mix that you're looking at coming down the pipe? And are there meaningful new products that you're looking forward to being able to integrate that could impact your unit economics?

然後，當您看到更高的儲存附加率時，您正在考慮對逆變器儲存硬體組合進行有意義的調整嗎？您是否希望整合一些有意義的新產品，從而影響您的單位經濟效益？

Yes. I think from a core hardware perspective, the major components, we've been -- we're really comfortable with the diversity we have and the products that we're using, and we continue to forecast and see steadily declining costs in those core products. On the innovation side and new product side, we actually see a lot of exciting products coming into the market. And Sunrun's position given our large and complete distribution is a preferred option for those people.

是的。我認為從核心硬體的角度來看，我們對主要組件的多樣性和正在使用的產品感到非常滿意，我們繼續預測並看到這些核心的成本穩步下降產品。在創新和新產品方面，我們實際上看到許多令人興奮的產品進入市場。鑑於我們龐大而完整的分銷，Sunrun 的地位是這些人的首選。

And so we view ourselves as well positioned to be a recipient of the best and most innovative exciting new products that come onto the scene and have been doing some pilots with different products. And I think as the markets mature and as the products mature, starting to make those more of a standard offering in more homes.

因此，我們認為自己有能力成為最好、最具創新性、令人興奮的新產品的接受者，這些新產品已經出現，並一直在使用不同的產品進行一些試點。我認為，隨著市場的成熟和產品的成熟，這些產品將開始成為更多家庭的標準產品。

Yes. And of course, we're looking forward to the deployment of Lunar and their storage capabilities, and we're already working with Lunar on their grid share capabilities, which are quite powerful.

是的。當然，我們期待著 Lunar 及其儲存功能的部署，並且我們已經在與 Lunar 合作開發他們的網格共享功能，該功能非常強大。

Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自 Maheep Mandloi 和 Mizuho 的線路。

Just a question on the systems and products business. I saw the gross margins were a bit weaker in the quarter, which probably led to the lower platform margins. Just trying to understand the drivers there and how should we think about the platform contribution going forward, especially after the distribution business sale you talked about a month ago?

只是關於系統和產品業務的問題。我看到本季的毛利率有點​​弱，這可能導致平台利潤率較低。只是想了解那裡的驅動因素，以及我們應該如何考慮未來的平台貢獻，特別是在您一個月前談到的分銷業務出售之後？

Yes, happy to hit that. So during the quarter, we made a decision to wind down our AEE distribution business. And in connection with that, there was a onetime kind of noncash charge on inventory impairment of $22 million. So that definitely weighed heavily on the gross margin in the period. As we -- it's not about that business. We've retained the higher margin and value-generating components of that business, but that did weigh in. And as we move on, from that, that should help restore some of that margin. If we look at that line item in total, it includes our distribution business. It includes our cash sales. It includes our home upgrade business which is ancillary to the solar install. If we just look at the cash system sales component in that line -- a couple of line items, that gross margin is a healthy double-digit number.

是的，很高興擊中它。因此，在本季度，我們決定關閉 AEE 分銷業務。與此相關的是，庫存減損一次性非現金費用為 2,200 萬美元。因此，這無疑嚴重影響了該時期的毛利率。作為我們——這與那件事無關。我們保留了該業務中較高的利潤率和創造價值的部分，但這確實發揮了作用。如果我們從整體上看該項目，它包括我們的分銷業務。它包括我們的現金銷售。它包括我們的家庭升級業務，該業務是太陽能安裝的輔助業務。如果我們只看該行中的現金系統銷售部分（幾個行項目），那麼毛利率是一個健康的兩位數數字。

Got it. Appreciate that. And then just on cash generation. Just looking at your Slide 14 there. The orange bar for 2Q to 4Q seem probably more in line with the $200 million cash generation exiting Q4. Is that fair? Or like we could probably see some upside to that -- those numbers starting 2Q as well with all the levers you talked about?

知道了。感謝。然後就是現金生成。看看你的幻燈片 14。第二季至第四季的橙色條似乎更符合第四季結束時 2 億美元的現金產生。這樣公平嗎？或者我們可能會看到一些好處——從第二季開始的這些數字以及您談論的所有槓桿？

Yes. I think -- so what you see on the bar chart on the -- like bottom left of Slide 14 is what I think you're looking at. Obviously, that's a directional picture, but I think the illustration here is a return of a lot of the working capital we incurred in Q1, returning that in Q2. And then in Q3 and Q4, moving more towards that run rate exit rate that we see falling within our guidance range. I would say that's the general picture there. I'm not sure if I missed the part of your question.

是的。我認為，您在投影片 14 左下角的長條圖上看到的就是我認為您正在查看的內容。顯然，這是一個方向性的圖景，但我認為這裡的說明是我們在第一季產生的大量營運資金的回報，在第二季的回報。然後在第三季和第四季度，我們看到運行率退出率進一步落在我們的指導範圍內。我想說這就是整體情況。我不確定我是否錯過了你問題的部分。

No, just like just reading those. And it looks like for Q4, it implies around $50 million of cash generation. Does that commensurate with the $200 million? Or does that -- like the exit run rate is something else or not the Q4 number here?

不，就像閱讀那些內容一樣。看起來第四季度，這意味著大約 5000 萬美元的現金產生。這與2億美元相稱嗎？還是說——就像退出運行率是別的東西，或者不是這裡的第四季數字？

Yes. Within the $200 million to $500 million range is what's implied there.

是的。其中隱含的金額在 2 億至 5 億美元之間。

Our next question comes from the line of Dylan Nassano with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Dylan Nassano。

Mary, you briefly hit on the early renewal program in your opening remarks. I was just wondering if you had any more color you could share on how that program has been progressing since your last update?

瑪麗，您在開場白中簡要地談到了早期更新計劃。我只是想知道您是否可以分享更多關於自上次更新以來該計劃的進展？

Yes. So we actually -- as I described, we are going to be using this year to run a number of different approaches on renewals and then scale as we exit '24 into '25. So we concluded that program, which, again, we were really pleased with, a 70% positive interaction on early renewal. And now we're launching our repowering and renewal with add-on storage pilots, and that begins in May. So at our next call, we'll be able to update you on that next one. Super encouraged by our first one, rolling out a different flavor, seeing what the uptake will be on that and then getting ready to scale as we exit the year.

是的。因此，實際上，正如我所描述的，我們將在今年採取多種不同的續約方法，然後在從 24 世紀退出到 25 世紀時擴展。因此，我們得出了該計劃的結論，我們再次對此感到非常滿意，在早期續訂方面有 70% 的積極互動。現在，我們正在啟動附加儲存試點的重新供電和更新，這將從五月開始。因此，在我們的下一次通話中，我們將能夠向您通報下一次的最新情況。我們的第一個產品讓我們深受鼓舞，推出了一種不同的口味，看看它的受歡迎程度如何，然後準備在今年結束時擴大規模。

And I would just add, I'd take this as kind of like us beginning more of a concerted focus around understanding our portfolio that's now close to reaching 1 million customers and investing in providing additional products and services like the battery to these homes. And as we focus on that opportunity that's in front of us, I think there's a lot of cash generation addition that can come as we effectively manage the portfolio.

我想補充一點，我認為這就像我們開始更加一致地關注了解我們的產品組合，該產品組合目前已接近 100 萬客戶，並投資於為這些家庭提供電池等額外產品和服務。當我們專注於擺在我們面前的機會時，我認為，當我們有效管理投資組合時，可以增加大量現金產生。

That concludes the time that has been allocated for Q&A. You may now disconnect.

分配給問答的時間到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。