(RF) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation's Quarterly Earnings Call. My name is Christine, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

早上好，歡迎參加地區金融公司的季度財報電話會議。我叫克莉絲汀，我是今天電話的接線生。 （操作員指示）我現在將通話轉給達納諾蘭開始。

Thank you, Christine. Welcome to Regions' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding the quarter. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimers and non-GAAP information are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。歡迎參加各地區 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。約翰和大衛將提供有關本季的高級評論。收益文件（包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則資訊）可在我們網站的投資者關係部分取得。這些揭露內容包括我們的簡報資料、準備好的評論和問答。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today.

謝謝你，達納，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

Earlier this morning, we reported earnings of $465 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.49. And while we have some unusual items in our results this quarter, our core performance remains strong, and we continue to have one of the best return on average tangible common equity ratios in our peer group at 21%.

今天早些時候，我們報告了盈利 4.65 億美元，每股收益為 0.49 美元。雖然我們本季的業績中有一些不尋常的項目，但我們的核心業績仍然強勁，並且我們仍然是同業中平均有形普通股回報率最好的公司之一，達 21%。

During the quarter, we continued to experience elevated levels of check-related fraud. Our third quarter results reflect an incremental $53 million in losses stemming from a second fraud scheme, which also began in the second quarter, but was unknown to us at the time. This scheme manifested itself in delayed returns and as a result, has had a much longer tail.

本季度，我們繼續遇到與支票相關的詐欺行為。我們第三季的業績反映了第二次詐欺計畫造成的 5,300 萬美元的增量損失，該計畫也在第二季開始，但當時我們並不知道。該計劃表現為延遲回報，因此尾巴更長。

After adjusting our countermeasures to identify potential fraud instances more quickly, the volume of new fraud claims has slowed. Although difficult to project based on what we know today, we expect quarterly fraud losses to come down significantly and to be approximately $25 million in the fourth quarter.

在調整我們的對策以更快地識別潛在的詐欺實例後，新的詐欺索賠數量已經放緩。儘管根據我們目前所知很難預測，但我們預計季度詐欺損失將大幅下降，第四季約為 2500 萬美元。

Based upon the increases we are seeing in check fraud across the industry, in fact, based on data we have, we indicate losses were up about 40% year-over-year, we expect future fraud losses to normalize in the $25 million per quarter range in 2024. Although the industry faces headwinds from lingering economic and regulatory uncertainty, we continue to benefit from our strong and diverse balance sheet with solid capital, robust liquidity and prudent credit risk management. Our proactive hedging strategies have positioned us for success in any interest rate environment. And our granular deposit base and relationship banking approach continue to serve us well.

根據我們看到的整個行業支票詐欺的成長情況，事實上，根據我們掌握的數據，我們表明損失同比增加了約 40%，我們預計未來的詐欺損失將正常化為每季 2500 萬美元2024 年，儘管該行業面臨揮之不去的經濟和監管不確定性所帶來的阻力，但我們繼續受益於我們強大而多元化的資產負債表、雄厚的資本、強勁的流動性和審慎的信用風險管理。我們積極主動的對沖策略使我們能夠在任何利率環境下取得成功。我們精細的存款基礎和關係銀行業務方法繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

We spent over a decade derisking our balance sheet and are well positioned to manage their proposed regulatory changes without significant impact to our business model. We remain committed to appropriate risk-adjusted returns and now is not the time to stretch for growth. We're focused on supporting existing customers where we have a relationship and a proven history.

我們花了十多年的時間來降低資產負債表的風險，並有能力管理他們提出的監管變更，而不會對我們的業務模式產生重大影響。我們仍然致力於適當的風險調整回報，現在還不是追求成長的時候。我們專注於為與我們有合作關係且擁有悠久歷史的現有客戶提供支援。

We have a great team with a proven track record of executing our strategy with focus and discipline. I'm confident in our ability to adapt to the changing regulatory and economic landscape while continuing to generate top quartile returns through the cycle.

我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，在專注、嚴格執行我們的策略方面有著良好的記錄。我對我們適應不斷變化的監管和經濟格局的能力充滿信心，同時繼續在整個週期中產生最高四分之一的回報。

Now David will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

現在大衛將提供有關本季的一些亮點。

Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average and ending loans remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter. Within the business portfolio, average loans were stable, while ending loans decreased 1%.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們從資產負債表開始。平均貸款和期末貸款較上季保持相對穩定。業務組合中，平均貸款維持穩定，期末貸款下降1%。

As John mentioned, we are being judicious in reserving our capital for business where we can have a full relationship. Client sentiment varies across industries with some continuing to expect growth, while others have a more muted outlook. Commercial commitments are down 1% compared to the second quarter. Average and ending consumer loans increased 1% as growth in mortgage and EnerBank was partially offset by declines in home equity and runoff exit portfolios.

正如約翰所提到的，我們明智地保留資本用於我們可以建立充分關係的業務。各行業的客戶情緒各不相同，有些產業持續預期成長，而有些產業的前景則更為黯淡。商業承諾較第二季下降 1%。平均和期末消費貸款增加了 1%，因為抵押貸款和 EnerBank 的成長被房屋淨值和徑流退出投資組合的下降部分抵消。

Subsequent to quarter end, we executed a sale of our remaining GreenSky portfolio of approximately $300 million, which represents one of our consumer exit portfolios. The economics of the transaction are relatively neutral but will create approximately 14 basis points of incremental charge-offs in the fourth quarter, offset by the related reserve release.

季度末後，我們出售了剩餘的 GreenSky 投資組合，價值約 3 億美元，這代表了我們的消費者退出投資組合之一。該交易的經濟效益相對中性，但將在第四季度產生約 14 個基點的增量沖銷，並被相關準備金釋放所抵消。

Looking forward, we expect 2023 ending loan growth to be in the low single digits. From a deposit standpoint, the modest deposit declines were in line with expectations, largely driven by late cycle rate-seeking behavior. We continue to experience remixing out of noninterest-bearing or NIB products and ended the quarter with NIB representing 35% of total deposits. Given the current rate environment, we expect the percentage to ultimately level off in a low 30% range.

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年末貸款成長將處於低個位數。從存款角度來看，存款小幅下降符合預期，主要是受週期末期利率尋求行為的推動。我們繼續經歷無息或 NIB 產品的重新組合，本季結束時 NIB 佔存款總額的 35%。鑑於目前的利率環境，我們預計該百分比最終將穩定在 30% 的低水準範圍內。

While some customers find alternatives and other investment channels outside of Regions, many are moving to our CDs and money market accounts. We also continue to provide off-balance sheet opportunities through our wealth management platform and in the Corporate Banking segment via money market mutual fund solutions. In the case of corporate clients, overall liquidity under management has remained stable quarter-over-quarter. Acquisition and retention of high primacy and operating relationships are strong, reflecting our focus to sustain and extend our deposit advantage through cycles.

雖然一些客戶在區域之外尋找替代方案和其他投資管道，但許多客戶正在轉向我們的 CD 和貨幣市場帳戶。我們也繼續透過我們的財富管理平台提供表外機會，並透過貨幣市場共同基金解決方案在企業銀行業務領域提供機會。就企業客戶而言，管理的整體流動性環比保持穩定。獲得和保留高度領先地位和營運關係的勢頭強勁，反映出我們致力於在整個週期內維持和擴大我們的存款優勢。

Looking forward, the higher rate environment, a tightening Federal Reserve and heightened competition will likely continue to constrain deposit growth and pressure costs for the industry through year-end and into early 2024. Accordingly, we expect deposits to be stable to modestly lower in the fourth quarter, and we expect continued remixing into interest-bearing categories.

展望未來，從年底到 2024 年初，升息環境、聯準會收緊政策和競爭加劇可能會繼續限制存款成長，並對產業成本構成壓力。因此，我們預計存款將在 2024 年保持穩定或小幅下降。第四季度，我們預計將繼續重新混合到計息類別。

So let's shift to net interest income. Net interest income declined by 6.5% in the third quarter, reflecting the anticipated normalization from elevated net interest income and margin levels back towards a sustainable longer-term range. The decline is driven by deposit cost normalization, the start of the active period on $6 billion of incremental hedging, as well as a onetime leverage lease residual value adjustment.

那麼讓我們轉向淨利息收入。第三季淨利息收入下降 6.5%，反映出淨利息收入和利潤率水準上升的預期正常化回到可持續的長期範圍。下降的原因包括存款成本正常化、60 億美元增量對沖活躍期的開始以及一次性槓桿租賃殘值調整。

As the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, net interest income is supported by elevated floating rate loans and cash yields at higher market interest rates and fixed rate asset turnover from the maturity of lower-yielding loans and securities. Deposit costs continued to increase through a combination of repricing and remixing, increasing the cycle-to-date interest-bearing deposit beta to 34%.

隨著聯準會緊縮週期接近尾聲，淨利息收入受到市場利率較高的浮動利率貸款和現金收益率上升以及低收益貸款和證券到期的固定利率資產週轉率的支撐。透過重新定價和重新混合，存款成本持續增加，將週期至今的計息存款貝塔值提高至 34%。

Historically, this behavior persists for a few quarters after the Fed stops moving interest rates. While we expect the pace of repricing to moderate, a higher federal funds rate over an extended period will cause remixing from low-cost deposits to persist. Ultimately, pushing deposit betas higher than previously anticipated. We now project the cycle-to-date beta to increase to near 40% by year-end.

從歷史上看，在聯準會停止調整利率後，這種行為會持續數季。雖然我們預計重新定價的步伐將會放緩，但長期較高的聯邦基金利率將導致低成本存款的重新混合持續存在。最終，將存款貝塔推高至高於先前預期。我們現在預計到年底，週期至今的貝塔值將增加到接近 40%。

Regardless, we remain confident that our deposit composition will provide a meaningful competitive advantage for Regions when compared to the broader industry. If the Fed remains on hold, fourth quarter net interest income is expected to decline approximately 5% and driven by continued deposit and funding cost normalization and the beginning of the active hedging period on another $3 billion of previously transacted forward starting swaps. Net interest income is projected to grow approximately 11% in 2023 when compared to 2022.

無論如何，我們仍然相信，與更廣泛的行業相比，我們的存款組成將為各地區提供有意義的競爭優勢。如果聯準會繼續按兵不動，第四季淨利息收入預計將下降約 5%，這主要是由於存款和融資成本持續正常化，以及先前交易的另外 30 億美元遠期起始互換的主動對沖期開始。與 2022 年相比，預計 2023 年淨利息收入將成長約 11%。

As we look to 2024, higher rates for longer likely extends the period of deposit costs and mix normalization. We expect net interest income trends to stabilize over the first half of the year and grow over the back half of the year. The balance sheet hedging program is an important source of earnings stability in today's uncertain environment. Hedges added to date create a net interest income profile that is well protected and mostly neutral to changes in interest rates through 2025.

展望 2024 年，利率持續上升可能會延長存款成本和混合正常化的時間。我們預計上半年淨利息收入趨勢將趨於穩定，下半年將有所成長。在當今不確定的環境中，資產負債表對沖計劃是獲利穩定的重要來源。迄今為止添加的對沖創建了一個受到良好保護的淨利息收入狀況，並且到 2025 年對利率變化基本上呈中性。

While we do not anticipate adding meaningfully to the hedging position over the coming quarters, we continue to look for opportunities to add protection at attractive rate levels in out years through the use of derivatives or securities. During the third quarter, we added $1.5 billion of forward starting swaps and $500 million of forward starting rate collars.

雖然我們預計未來幾季不會大幅增加對沖頭寸，但我們將繼續尋找機會，透過使用衍生性商品或證券，在未來幾年以有吸引力的利率水準增加保護。第三季度，我們增加了 15 億美元的遠期起始掉期和 5 億美元的遠期起始利率區間。

So let's take a look at fee revenue and expense. Adjusted noninterest income decreased 2% from the prior quarter, as modest increases in mortgage and wealth management income were offset by declines primarily in service charges and capital markets. The increase in mortgage income was driven by higher servicing income associated with a bulk purchase of the rights to service, $6.2 billion of residential mortgage loans, closed early in the quarter.

那我們來看看費用收入和費用。調整後的非利息收入較上一季下降 2%，原因是抵押貸款和財富管理收入的小幅增長被服務費和資本市場的下降所抵消。抵押貸款收入的成長是由於大量購買服務權（本季初結束的 62 億美元住宅抵押貸款）帶來的服務收入增加所推動的。

Service charges declined 7%, reflecting the run rate impact of the company's overdraft, grace feature implemented late in the second quarter. Based on our experience to date, as well as our expectation for another record year in treasury management, we now expect full year service charges of approximately $590 million.

服務費下降了 7%，反映了公司在第二季末實施的透支、寬限功能對運作率的影響。根據我們迄今為止的經驗，以及我們對財務管理再創新高的預期，我們現在預計全年服務費約為 5.9 億美元。

Total capital markets income decreased $4 million, excluding the impact of CVA and DVA, capital markets income decreased 13% sequentially as increases in M&A fees were offset by declines in other categories. We had a negative $3 million CVA and DVA adjustment during the quarter versus the $9 million negative adjustment in the prior quarter.

資本市場總收入減少 400 萬美元，排除 CVA 和 DVA 的影響，資本市場收入環比下降 13%，因為併購費用的增加被其他類別的下降所抵消。本季我們的 CVA 和 DVA 負調整為 300 萬美元，而上一季的負調整為 900 萬美元。

With respect to the outlook, we now expect full year 2023 adjusted total revenue to be up 5% to 6% compared to 2022. Let's move on to noninterest expense. Adjusted noninterest expense decreased 2% compared to the prior quarter and includes the previously noted elevated operational losses.

就前景而言，我們現在預計 2023 年全年調整後總收入將比 2022 年增長 5% 至 6%。讓我們繼續討論非利息支出。調整後的非利息支出較上一季下降 2%，其中包括先前提到的營運損失增加。

Excluding the incremental fraud experienced in both the second and third quarters, adjusted noninterest expenses increased 1% sequentially. Salaries and benefits decreased 2%, driven primarily by lower incentives and payroll taxes, while other noninterest expense increased 12%, driven primarily by a $7 million pension settlement charge.

排除第二季和第三季增加的詐欺行為，調整後的非利息支出較上季增加 1%。工資和福利下降了 2%，主要是由於激勵措施和工資稅下降，而其他非利息支出增加了 12%，主要是由於 700 萬美元的退休金結算費用。

We remain committed to prudently managing expenses in order to fund investments in our business. We will continue to refine our expense base, focusing on our largest categories, which include salaries and benefits, occupancy and vendor spend.

我們仍然致力於審慎管理費用，以便為我們的業務投資提供資金。我們將繼續完善我們的支出基礎，重點關注我們最大的類別，其中包括薪資和福利、入住率和供應商支出。

We expect full year 2023 adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 9.5%. Excluding the $135 million of incremental operational losses experienced in the past 2 quarters, we expect adjusted noninterest expenses to be up approximately 6% in 2023 when compared to 2022.

我們預計 2023 年全年調整後非利息支出將成長 9.5%。排除過去兩季 1.35 億美元的增量營運損失，我們預計 2023 年調整後的非利息支出將比 2022 年成長約 6%。

From an asset quality standpoint, overall credit performance continues to normalize as expected. Net charge-offs increased 7 basis points to 40 basis points due to elevated charge-offs related to a solar program, we've since discontinued at EnerBank, as well as lower commercial recoveries versus the second quarter.

從資產品質來看，整體信用表現持續正常化，符合預期。由於與太陽能專案相關的核銷增加（此後我們已在 EnerBank 停止），以及商業回收率較第二季度較低，淨核銷增加了 7 個基點至 40 個基點。

Nonperforming loans, business services criticized loans and total delinquencies also increased. Nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans increased 15 basis points in the quarter due primarily to a large collateralized information credit. Provision expense was $145 million or $44 million in excess of net charge-offs. The allowance for credit loss ratio increased 5 basis points to 1.70%, while the allowance as a percentage of nonperforming loans declined to 261%.

不良貸款、商業服務貸款和拖欠總額也有所增加。本季不良貸款佔貸款總額的百分比增加了 15 個基點，這主要是由於大量的抵押資訊信貸。撥備費用為 1.45 億美元，比淨沖銷額多 4,400 萬美元。信用損失準備率上升5個基點至1.70%，不良貸款準備率下降至261%。

The increase to our allowance is due primarily to adverse risk migration and continued credit quality normalization, as well as the build in qualitative adjustments for incremental risk in certain portfolios, including office, multifamily and select markets and EnerBank. It's also worth noting the outcome of the most recent shared national credit exam, it is reflected in our results.

我們準備金的增加主要是由於不利的風險遷移和持續的信貸品質正常化，以及針對某些投資組合（包括辦公室、多戶住宅和精選市場以及 EnerBank）的增量風險進行的定性調整。還值得注意的是最近的共享國家信用考試的結果，它反映在我們的結果中。

The allowance on the office portfolio increased from 2.7% to 3.1%. Importantly, the vast majority of our office exposure is in Class A properties located primarily within the Sunbelt and non-gateway markets. Overall, we continue to feel good about the composition of our office book. and do not expect any meaningful loss in this portfolio.

辦公室投資組合的準備金從 2.7% 增加到 3.1%。重要的是，我們的絕大多數辦公大樓位於主要位於陽光地帶和非門戶市場的 A 級物業。總體而言，我們對辦公簿的組成仍然感到滿意。並且預計該投資組合不會有任何重大損失。

We expect net charge-offs will continue to normalize, including this quarter's charge-offs, but excluding the 14 basis point impact on our fourth quarter GreenSky loan sale, we expect full year 2023 adjusted net charge-off ratio to be slightly above 35 basis points.

我們預計淨沖銷將繼續正常化，包括本季的沖銷，但排除第四季度 GreenSky 貸款銷售 14 個基點的影響，我們預計 2023 年全年調整後的淨沖銷比率將略高於 35 個基點點。

In the third quarter, 2 anticipated notices of proposed rule makings were issued. While we plan to provide feedback through the comment process on both, we are well positioned to absorb the ultimate impacts without major changes to our business.

第三季度，發布了 2 份擬議規則制定的預期通知。雖然我們計劃透過評論流程提供回饋，但我們有能力吸收最終影響，而不會對我們的業務造成重大變化。

With respect to Basel III Endgame, as proposed, we estimate a low to mid-single-digit increase in risk-weighted assets under the expanded risk-based approach. In addition, to the phase-in of AOCI into regulatory capital.

關於《巴塞爾協議 III 終局之戰》，我們預計，在擴大的基於風險的方法下，風險加權資產將出現低至中個位數的增長。此外，將 AOCI 逐步納入監理資本。

Regarding minimum long-term debt, we estimate a need to issue approximately $6 billion of long-term debt over the course of several years. We view this amount to be manageable, resulting in a modest drag on earnings.

關於最低長期債務，我們估計需要在幾年內發行約 60 億美元的長期債務。我們認為這筆金額是可控的，對獲利造成的影響不大。

Importantly, the proposal to provide clarity on the evolution of the regulatory environment and support our decision to maintain our common equity Tier 1 ratio around 10% over the near term, as this level should provide sufficient flexibility to meet the proposed changes along the implementation time line while supporting strategic growth objectives.

重要的是，該提案旨在明確監管環境的演變，並支持我們在短期內將普通股一級資本比率維持在10% 左右的決定，因為這一水平應提供足夠的靈活性，以滿足實施期間擬議的變化同時支持戰略成長目標。

Despite the current macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as the continued evolution of the regulatory framework, we expect that share repurchases will resume in the near term. And finally, we have a slide summarizing our expectations, which we have addressed throughout the prepared comments.

儘管當前宏觀經濟和地緣政治存在不確定性以及監管框架的持續演變，但我們預計股票回購將在短期內恢復。最後，我們有一張投影片總結了我們的期望，我們在準備好的評論中已經討論了這些期望。

With that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

這樣，我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

Wanted to start out just on the NII trajectory. When we start to talk about NII stabilizing in the first half of '24. I guess we might be suggesting that it could continue to compress a bit after the fourth quarter's dip.

想從 NII 軌跡開始。當我們開始談論 24 年上半年 NII 趨於穩定時。我想我們可能會建議，在第四季的下滑之後，它可能會繼續有所壓縮。

So maybe just thinking if you could help us to sort of size the any potential pressure beyond year-end '23? And then additionally, your thoughts on what would allow it to resume growing in the second half of next year?

所以也許只是想一下您是否可以幫助我們衡量 23 年底後的任何潛在壓力？另外，您對如何使其在明年下半年恢復成長有何看法？

Scott, this is David. So you're right, you will see some pressure in the fourth quarter, in particular, as we see continued remixing of noninterest-bearing deposits going into interest-bearing given higher for longer rates. And due to the fact that we have $3 billion of notional interest rate swaps that become live in the fourth quarter, that alone cost about $20 million in NII.

斯科特，這是大衛。所以你是對的，你會在第四季度看到一些壓力，特別是因為我們看到無息存款繼續重新混合為有息存款，因為長期利率更高。由於我們有 30 億美元的名目利率互換在第四季度投入使用，光是這一項就花費了約 2,000 萬美元的 NII。

So you'll see an adjustment, not as big as you just saw relative to net interest margin decline, but you'll see some decline in the fourth quarter. When we get to the third quarter, while we do have an additional $2.5 billion of interest rate swaps that become live then. We think the remixing will start slowing. We think there is somewhere between $3 billion and $5 billion worth of remixing of noninterest-bearing deposits into interest-bearing. And that's going back and studying our consumers, in particular and how much they had in their accounts relative to their spend and where's that $3 billion to $5 billion gets you back to where they were from a prepandemic standpoint. So we have confidence that we should see this starting to slow after the fourth quarter.

因此，您會看到調整，雖然相對於淨利差下降的幅度沒有您剛才看到的那麼大，但您會看到第四季度出現一些下降。當我們進入第三季時，我們確實還有另外 25 億美元的利率掉期項目將生效。我們認為混音將會開始放緩。我們認為，無息存款與有息存款的重新混合價值在 30 億至 50 億美元之間。這就是回過頭來研究我們的消費者，特別是他們的帳戶中有多少資金相對於他們的支出，以及從大流行前的角度來看，30 億到50 億美元在哪裡可以讓你回到他們的狀態。因此，我們有信心在第四季後看到這種情況開始放緩。

There'll be, like I said, a little pressure in the first quarter because of the new derivatives coming on. That number will affect us about $10 million to $15 million in the first quarter, then we don't have any more after that. So we start stabilizing from there. And when you get to the second half of the year, we can start to grow. If I kind of cut to the chase on the end game, we think after all is said and done, we can support -- our margin should bottom out around $350 million perhaps a bit higher than that.

正如我所說，由於新衍生品的推出，第一季將會面臨一些壓力。這個數字將影響我們第一季約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，之後我們就沒有更多的了。所以我們從那裡開始穩定。到了下半年，我們就可以開始成長。如果我在最後的遊戲中切入正題，我們認為，畢竟，我們可以支持——我們的利潤率應該會觸底，大約為 3.5 億美元，也許會比這個數字高一點。

So you're not going to see the -- you can't take the change that you just saw and continue to extrapolate that all the way through the end of the second quarter. You'll have a bigger change in the fourth, a smaller change in the first and negligible change in the second quarter.

所以你不會看到——你不能接受你剛剛看到的變化，並繼續推斷到第二季末。第四季的變化較大，第一季的變化較小，第二季的變化可以忽略不計。

So the balance sheet, what's important in all that is, the balance sheet continues to reprice. We have about $15 billion worth of fixed rate securities and loans that repriced and the front book back book impacts are about 250 basis points. And we continue to have had that, the problem is it's been overwhelmed by the move of noninterest-bearing deposits into interest bearing. And as I just mentioned that, should start to slow.

因此，資產負債表，最重要的是，資產負債表繼續重新定價。我們有價值約 150 億美元的固定利率證券和貸款進行了重新定價，帳面影響約為 250 個基點。我們仍然遇到這種情況，問題是它已經被無息存款轉向有息存款所淹沒。正如我剛才提到的，應該開始放慢速度。

And so I think, again, our margin bottoming out kind of in that $350 million to slightly better than, that is really the relevant point here.

因此，我再次認為，我們的利潤率觸底反彈至 3.5 億美元，略好於這，這確實是相關點。

Okay. Perfect. And then I guess just on the notion of deposits and betas. I know we're thinking about a 40% beta through the end of the year, but maybe thoughts on how things could trend into next year if we indeed have just sort of some drag on price. How much more pressure could we see once rates peak? How might that level off?

好的。完美的。然後我想只是關於存款和貝塔的概念。我知道我們正在考慮到今年年底的 40% 貝塔值，但也許會考慮如果我們確實對價格造成一些拖累，那麼明年的情況會如何發展。一旦利率達到高峰，我們還會面臨多少壓力？這會如何趨於平穩？

Yes, I think -- so what's baked into what I just told you is that we would have a beta through the end of this year, pushing on 40%, maybe a little underneath that. And then we go into perhaps the mid-40s into next year. And again, that's considering higher for longer.

是的，我認為 - 所以我剛才告訴你的是，我們將在今年年底之前進行測試，推動 40%，也許略低於這個數字。然後我們可能會進入 40 年代中期，直到明年。再說一次，這是在考慮更長的時間內更高的價格。

It starts to slow there, again, because we don't have as much moving out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing. So I think the -- again, if we have rates even continue to go up, we're slightly asset sensitive and the repricing of our balance sheet starts to overwhelm the deposit moves. And I think that's the piece that people might not be picking up on.

它再次開始放緩，因為我們沒有那麼多的資金從無息轉向有息。因此，我認為，如果我們的利率繼續上升，我們就會對資產稍微敏感，資產負債表的重新定價開始壓倒存款變動。我認為人們可能不會注意到這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞安·納許與高盛的對話。

Maybe to ask a question on credit. First, maybe just to clarify the implied a little bit above 35 for the year, which I guess implies around 45 for the fourth quarter. So that pushes reported up to about 60 with GreenSky. I just wanted to verify that.

也許是想問一個關於信用的問題。首先，也許只是為了澄清今年的隱含值略高於 35，我猜這意味著第四季的隱含值約為 45。據報道，GreenSky 的推送次數達到了 60 左右。我只是想驗證一下。

And then can you expand on the comments regarding what you're seeing in office, multifamily and maybe what happened with EnerBank, which I think you referenced higher charge-offs and exiting some parts of the portfolio?

然後，您能否詳細闡述您在辦公室、多戶家庭中看到的情況以及EnerBank 發生的情況，我認為您提到了更高的沖銷和退出投資組合的某些部分？

Yes. So let me start. So yes, I think that we'll see some increase. So let's keep the GreenSky piece out because that's going to be noise. That's we kind of announced that separate. Go back to kind of core charge-offs, we said it would be slightly higher than 35, call that a couple of points, maybe 37, which implies fourth quarter in that 40 basis point charge-off range.

是的。那麼就讓我開始吧。所以是的，我認為我們會看到一些成長。因此，我們將 GreenSky 部分排除在外，因為這會產生噪音。這就是我們分開宣布的。回到核心沖銷的類型，我們說它將略高於 35，稱之為幾個點，可能是 37，這意味著第四季度處於 40 個基點沖銷範圍內。

We will continue to see elevated charge-offs coming through EnerBank for which we provided this past quarter relative to our program that we discontinued. And so we'll see that for a quarter or 2, and that's factored into the guidance that we've given you.

我們將繼續看到透過 EnerBank 進行的沖銷增加，我們在上個季度提供了與我們停止的計劃相關的沖銷。因此，我們將在一個季度或兩個季度內看到這一點，這已納入我們為您提供的指導中。

From an office standpoint, our office continues to decline, even in October, I think we put that in our (inaudible).

從辦公室的角度來看，我們的辦公室繼續下降，即使在十月，我認為我們把它放在我們的（聽不清楚）中。

Outstanding is continued to decline, and that quality of the portfolio.

傑出的是持續下降，以及投資組合的品質。

Outstanding [charge-offs].

未結清[沖銷]。

Maybe I'll speak to that. With respect to office, we've got about $1.6 billion in outstandings. To David's point, that represents some decline paydowns, refinances over the course of the last quarter. As we said before, about 39% of that portfolio is in credits direct to single tenant credits. And the bulk of that is to investment-grade quality tenants. The balance of our exposure, 61-plus percent are in multi-tenant credits, 63% of that is in the Sunbelt market, 92% is Class A.

也許我會談談這一點。就辦公室而言，我們有大約 16 億美元的未償債務。就大衛的觀點而言，這代表上個季度的付款和再融資有所下降。正如我們之前所說，該投資組合中約 39% 的信貸直接用於單一租戶信貸。其中大部分是投資等級優質租戶。在我們的餘額中，61% 以上是多租戶信貸，其中 63% 在 Sunbelt 市場，92% 是 A 類市場。

We have, in total, about 100 borrowers. So we are very much on top of the portfolio, having ongoing conversations with customers. About 50% of our exposure matures this year and in 2024. So we're actively working that. One of the, I think, good signs about the portfolio is that sponsors have contributed over the course of the last couple of quarters, over $150 million to the projects, most of them are unguaranteed, so those are commitments that sponsors are making to the continued renewal extension of those projects, the rightsizing of them.

我們總共有大約 100 位借款人。因此，我們在產品組合方面處於領先地位，與客戶進行持續對話。我們約 50% 的風險敞口將於今年和 2024 年到期。因此，我們正在積極致力於此。我認為，有關該投資組合的一個好跡像是，贊助商在過去幾個季度中為這些項目提供了超過1.5 億美元的捐款，其中大部分都是無擔保的，因此這些是讚助商對項目做出的承諾。繼續更新和擴展這些項目，並調整其規模。

And as a consequence, we feel good about our office exposure. We have one nonaccrual and that credit has been renegotiated and is paying as agreed currently. With respect to...

因此，我們對辦公室的環境感覺良好。我們有一項非應計利息，該信貸已重新協商，目前正在按約定支付。關於...

Got it. Yes. I am sorry. Sorry, John. Go ahead.

知道了。是的。對不起。對不起，約翰。前進。

The rest of the portfolio, we did see some uptick in nonaccruals. As David said, we're still guiding to 35 to 45 basis points of loss in 2024. We feel good about that. I think the portfolio is performing as we expected as it as it normalizes, and that's occurring.

在投資組合的其餘部分，我們確實看到非應計費用上升。正如 David 所說，我們仍預計 2024 年將出現 35 至 45 個基點的損失。我們對此感到滿意。我認為投資組合的表現正如我們所預期的那樣，因為它正常化了，而且這種情況正在發生。

Within EnerBank, we have a specific program that was associated with a single vendor. And it effectively was -- what I'll call kind of a buy now pay later program, where the customer entered into an agreement to put solar equipment on their house. There was a period of time when that equipment would be installed on the house. The customer did not make any payments.

在 EnerBank 內，我們有一個與單一供應商相關的特定計劃。它實際上是——我稱之為“先買後付”計劃，客戶簽訂了一項協議，在他們的房子上安裝太陽能設備。有一段時間，房子裡會安裝這些設備。客戶沒有支付任何款項。

We exited that program in October of 2022, just based on our analysis of the risk-adjusted returns associated with it. And the profile of the product was just not something we want to continue well. Now we're beginning to see those loans reach a point where customers are having to make payments. And we are experiencing little higher level of losses, but the losses and with EnerBank are still below our expectations, for Enerbank in general, and it continues to perform better than at least consistent with, if not better than we had hoped when we made the acquisition.

僅根據我們對其相關風險調整回報的分析，我們於 2022 年 10 月退出了該計劃。而且產品的形象並不是我們想要很好地繼續下去的。現在我們開始看到這些貸款達到了客戶必須付款的地步。我們正在經歷略高的損失，但總體而言，EnerBank 的損失仍然低於我們的預期，而且它的表現仍然比我們做出預期時的預期要好，至少與我們預期的一致，甚至更好。獲得。

Got it. David, maybe a follow-up on expenses. I know there's lots of moving pieces in the scenario. I know you've highlighted that you guys have been doing work on for a while.

知道了。大衛，也許是關於費用的後續行動。我知道這個場景中有很多令人感動的部分。我知道你們已經強調你們已經工作了一段時間了。

But just given the revenue headwinds that you're likely to face in the beginning of the year. Can you maybe just talk about what you're doing? And while I know you might not be ready to give '24 guidance, do you think you could potentially hold the line on expenses and keep them relatively flat given the challenging revenue environment into '24?

但考慮到您在年初可能會面臨的收入阻力。可以簡單談談你在做什麼嗎？雖然我知道您可能還沒有準備好提供“24 年指導”，但考慮到“24 年”收入環境充滿挑戰，您認為您是否有可能控制開支並保持相對平穩？

Yes. So I don't think it should be a surprise to anybody that revenue was going to be challenging. That's been out there for a while. We've known it. And as a result, we started working on our expense management and our continuous improvement program throughout 2023.

是的。因此，我認為任何人對於收入面臨的挑戰都不應該感到驚訝。那已經存在了一段時間了。我們已經知道了。因此，我們開始致力於 2023 年的費用管理和持續改進計劃。

In this particular quarter, unfortunately, we had some things that -- the fraud, engine settlement, we had some equipment software costs that won't repeat at the level that we had and some professional fees that we incurred that we don't think -- that will be repeated.

不幸的是，在這個特定的季度，我們遇到了一些事情——欺詐、引擎結算、我們的一些設備軟體成本不會以我們曾經的水平重複，以及我們產生的一些我們認為不會發生的專業費用。 ——這將被重複。

That being said, we're going to need to even double down on expense management for 2024. We're not going to give you guidance for that. But I think suffice it to say, our reported number that we have for '20. We should be able to have our number in 2024 to be underneath our reported number for 2023. How much, we'll give you guidance as we get towards the end of the year. But yes, I think we can -- we should be able to be underneath that number.

話雖這麼說，我們甚至需要在 2024 年的費用管理上加倍努力。我們不會為此提供指導。但我認為只要說一下我們所報告的 20 年的數字就足夠了。我們應該能夠讓 2024 年的數字低於我們報告的 2023 年數字。具體多少，我們將在年底時為您提供指導。但是，是的，我認為我們可以——我們應該能夠低於這個數字。

And I'd just add, Ryan, we've demonstrated, I think, over time, a commitment to effectively manage expenses, and it's our intention to continue doing that. We realize the importance of it.

我想補充一點，瑞安，我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們已經展示了有效管理費用的承諾，並且我們打算繼續這樣做。我們意識到它的重要性。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的對話。

On the fraud costs, if you can give us a little bit more color on that. Are they running higher than expected than you had expected when you discussed them last quarter? And why are they -- have they been persistent given the issue that you discovered?

關於詐欺成本，您能否提供我們更多資訊。它們的運行速度是否高於您上季討論時的預期？鑑於您發現的問題，他們為什麼堅持不懈？

And also that $25 million per quarter of fraud costs that you flagged for 2024. Is that brand new? Or was that already -- to a degree baked into your run rate expectation as you look at 2024? Or is this brand-new given the longer-than-expected persistence of this issue?

還有您標記的 2024 年每季 2500 萬美元的詐欺成本。這是全新的嗎？或者，在您展望 2024 年時，這是否已經在一定程度上融入了您的運行率預期？或者考慮到這個問題持續的時間比預期要長，這是否是一個全新的問題？

Yes. So let me answer the second question first. So the $25 million per quarter is slightly higher than our historical run rate fraud has increased dramatically in the industry. We seem to be the ones called out. It's hit us very hard.

是的。那我先回答第二個問題。因此，每季 2500 萬美元略高於我們歷史上的運行率，欺詐行為在行業中急劇增加。我們似乎是被召喚的人。這對我們打擊很大。

To your first question, this was a different scheme this time than what we've reported on last quarter. And unfortunately, this scheme that they had, you don't know about until the banks on which the checks are written notify you that that's not a good item. And it takes about 50 to 60 days before you know that.

對於你的第一個問題，這次的計劃與我們上季報告的計劃不同。不幸的是，他們的這個計劃，你並不知道，直到開支票的銀行通知你這不是一個好項目。您大約需要 50 到 60 天才能知道這一點。

We can look at when events occurred, and we can kind of see a pattern where we feel reasonably confident that we're not going to see that kind of increase going forward from the schemes that we've seen. And of course, we're putting in new controls, we're putting in new technology, and it's very disappointing. We have the $25 million, John, a bit higher, call it, $5 million higher than we historically have had because this is just a big deal in the industry. And so we want to be a bit conservative. We'll give you better guidance on expenses, including fraud when we get to reporting on 2024 expectations later. But -- so it's a tad higher, but...

我們可以看看事件發生的時間，我們可以看到一種模式，我們有理由相信，我們不會看到我們所看到的計劃繼續出現這種增長。當然，我們正在採用新的控制裝置，我們正在採用新技術，但這非常令人失望。約翰，我們有 2500 萬美元，比我們歷史上高出 500 萬美元，因為這在行業中是一件大事。所以我們想保守一點。當我們稍後報告 2024 年預期時，我們將為您提供更好的費用指導，包括詐欺行為。但是——所以它有點高，但是......

Okay. All right, David. And then I guess related to that, any -- I mean, given the second visible fraud issue to come up in as many quarters, are you getting any pressure incrementally from regulators to invest more actively like you said, around these new controls that you're putting in? Or any input there?

好的。好吧，大衛。然後我想與此相關的是，考慮到在多個季度中出現的第二個明顯的欺詐問題，您是否會受到監管機構的逐步壓力，要求您像您所說的那樣，圍繞這些新的控制措施進行更積極的投資？正在投入？或有什麼輸入嗎？

And then separately, on the capital front, you talked about buybacks likely to resume in the near term. Can you maybe give us some color on the timing and potential magnitude there?

然後，在資本方面，您談到了可能在短期內恢復的回購。您能否給我們一些有關時間安排和潛在規模的資訊？

Sure. So we won't talk about our relationships with our regulators, but fraud is our issue. If we have to have our regulators tell us what to do with regards to the fraud or anything else, we'd probably already missed that both. So it's not -- that's not an issue.

當然。因此，我們不會談論我們與監管機構的關係，但詐欺是我們的問題。如果我們必須讓監管機構告訴我們如何處理詐欺或其他問題，我們可能已經錯過了這兩件事。所以這不是——這不是問題。

We're highly disappointed in it. We're working hard. We have found some people that have committed fraud. They've been put in jail. But it's -- again, the industry report we saw is up from $17 billion in '22 to $25 billion of fraud in '24 thus far. So...

我們對此感到非常失望。我們正在努力工作。我們發現有些人實施了欺詐行為。他們已經被關進監獄了。但我們再次看到的產業報告顯示，迄今為止，詐欺行為從 22 年的 170 億美元上升到 24 年的 250 億美元。所以...

'23.

'23。

It's -- in '23, sorry. So it's affecting all of us, but it seems to have gotten us in a -- kind of concentrated in these 2 quarters. And again, I feel confident we put in controls, and we'll be putting in more monitoring it going forward.

抱歉，是在 23 年。所以它影響著我們所有人，但它似乎讓我們陷入了一種集中在這兩個季度的情況。再說一次，我對我們採取的控制措施充滿信心，我們將在未來進行更多的監控。

Relative to capital, yes, so we're at 10.3% on common equity Tier 1. We now have seen the Basel III Endgame proposal. We'll be going through -- providing our comment letter on that as well as the debt NPR. We feel confident in kind of where we are relative to that and the implementation time frame. Hopefully, we get a bit of a reprieve on that. But even if we didn't, we feel that we're in a good place to be able to implement that without too much harm. And there's no need for us to continue to let our capital to continue to increase. We accrete 20, 30 basis points of capital every quarter.

是的，相對於資本，我們的一級普通股權益為 10.3%。我們現在已經看到了巴塞爾協議 III 的最終提案。我們將對此以及債務 NPR 提供我們的評論信。我們對我們的相對位置和實施時間框架充滿信心。希望我們能得到一點緩刑。但即使我們沒有這樣做，我們也覺得我們處於一個很好的位置，能夠在不造成太大傷害的情況下實施這一目標。而且我們沒有必要繼續讓我們的資本繼續增加。我們每季增加 20、30 個基點的資本。

So if we did nothing, we would be pushing on 10.6%, that's just higher than we need. And so we think we can enter into buybacks as soon as we get out of the blackout period, and what we left in our comments was, we would operate close or around that 10% CET1 number.

因此，如果我們什麼都不做，我們將推動 10.6%，這剛好高於我們的需要。因此，我們認為一旦結束禁售期，我們就可以進行回購，我們在評論中留下的內容是，我們將在接近或大約 10% CET1 的數字上進行操作。

Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的聯繫。

I guess, thanks for the color on CRE office. Just was wondering if you can talk about anything beyond CRE office, particularly on multifamily in any of the Sunbelt states. We've read articles about just oversupply in some of these markets like Zale, Austin, et cetera. Just talk to us, one, in terms of exposure and if whether or not you're seeing soft lift for the multifamily.

我想，感謝 CRE 辦公室的色彩。只是想知道您是否可以談論 CRE 辦公室之外的任何內容，特別是關於陽光地帶各州的多戶住宅。我們讀過有關扎萊、奧斯汀等一些市場供應過剩的文章。請與我們談談暴露程度以及您是否看到多戶住宅的軟升力。

So Ebrahim, this is John Turner. Our total exposure, I think in multifamily exceeds just above $3 billion. It is a very diverse portfolio spread across 137 total submarkets, some number like that. We are -- in terms of concentrations, our top 5 exposures would be in cities that you would recognize Dallas, Houston, Charlotte, Raleigh, Orlando, Miami, places where we have just historically banked and have a presence. We don't have any concentrations at all in any of those markets that would exceed -- I think one exception would exceed 5%, 6%.

易卜拉欣，這是約翰‧特納。我認為我們在多戶家庭中的總風險超過 30 億美元。這是一個非常多樣化的投資組合，遍布 137 個子市場，其中一些是這樣的。就集中度而言，我們前五名的風險敞口將集中在達拉斯、休士頓、夏洛特、羅利、奧蘭多、邁阿密等城市，這些城市是我們歷史上開設銀行並開展業務的地方。我們在這些市場中根本沒有任何集中度會超過——我認為有一個例外會超過 5%、6%。

So again, good diversity. We are seeing some softening of rents increasing costs associated with interest cost, about a little over 50% of the portfolio is currently still under construction. So we expect that those construction projects to be completed over the next 24 months to deliver out. We're not -- while we're watching it closely, we really haven't seen any adverse movement within the portfolio to speak of.

再說一遍，良好的多樣性。我們看到租金有所疲軟，增加了與利息成本相關的成本，目前約有 50% 多一點的投資組合仍在建設中。因此我們預計這些建設項目將在未來 24 個月內完成交付。我們沒有——雖然我們正在密切關注，但我們確實沒有看到投資組合出現任何不利的趨勢。

And again, given the location of our projects, which are in suburban markets, given the diversity of the distribution across geographies and the location, primarily in the Sunbelt, we feel good about our multifamily portfolio.

再說一次，考慮到我們的項目位於郊區市場，考慮到不同地區和位置（主要是陽光地帶）分佈的多樣性，我們對我們的多戶型投資組合感覺良好。

Got it. And just a separate question in terms of the deposit beta outlook that you mentioned. How are you thinking -- what's this in terms of the mix of customers? One, are you seeing consumer depleted because of usage in that driving deposit NIB (inaudible) deposits loans, what's about that to some extent? And then where do you see CDs shaking out in terms of impact from borrowers, from deposit customers and where CD mix could be 12 months from now if we don't get any rate cuts?

知道了。關於您提到的存款貝塔前景，這只是一個單獨的問題。您如何看待－就客戶組合而言，這是什麼？第一，您是否看到消費者因使用驅動存款 NIB（聽不清楚）存款貸款而耗盡，這在某種程度上是怎麼回事？那麼，從借款人、存款客戶的影響來看，您認為 CD 會發生哪些變化？如果我們不降息，12 個月後 CD 組合可能會怎麼樣？

Yes, you were breaking up there a little bit, but I think you were saying what are we seeing in terms of movement of NIB into CDs. So that's been the big change thus far for us. I think our CDs are right at 10% -- just under 10% of our book -- of our total deposit book. That could grow. We do have money market offers that we're working on. We want to be competitive.

是的，你在那裡有點分裂，但我認為你是在說我們在 NIB 進入 CD 的過程中看到了什麼。所以這對我們來說是迄今為止最大的改變。我認為我們的 CD 占我們存款總額的 10%，略低於我們存款總額的 10%。那可能會增長。我們確實正在研究貨幣市場報價。我們希望具有競爭力。

This remix has been really relegated to high net worth customers that are taking excess cash and putting it to work. And the reason we think that, that remix is somewhere in the 3% to 5% to go, is because that customer base gets down to having the amount of cash in their account relative to the spend pattern that they had pre-pandemic. And so I think that happens by the end of next year -- I mean, the middle of next year.

這種混搭實際上已被歸類在高淨值客戶手中，他們將多餘的現金投入使用。我們之所以認為這種混合比例在 3% 到 5% 之間，是因為客戶群的帳戶中現金數量相對於他們在大流行前的支出模式而言較低。所以我認為這會在明年年底發生——我的意思是，明年年中。

As we think about where CD balances could be as a percentage of total deposits, maybe you pick up another 2% or 3% through that remix. And it really is dependent on how we think about other offers, money market, and we're working on that. So there could be some mix in terms of how that 3% to 5% gets put to work. But specific to CDs, 2% to 3%.

當我們考慮 CD 餘額佔總​​存款的百分比時，也許您可以透過這種重新混合獲得另外 2% 或 3%。這確實取決於我們如何看待其他報價、貨幣市場，我們正在努力解決這個問題。因此，這 3% 到 5% 的發揮作用可能會有所不同。但具體到CD，2%到3%。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 的對話。

David, John, just a quick question on the fee side, clear guidance for the fourth quarter. Just on -- those service charges continue to come in much better $590 million for the year, obviously an implied lower exit for the fourth quarter.

大衛、約翰，只是關於費用的一個簡單問題，第四季的明確指引。就在今年，這些服務費繼續達到 5.9 億美元，明顯優於第四季的退出水準。

Any line of sight in terms of like -- are we getting close to the leveling out period here on that service charges line in terms of -- I know cash management has been outgrowing the other pieces, but is this kind of the right level of use going forward?

任何視線，例如——我們是否已經接近服務費線的平穩期——我知道現金管理已經超過了其他部分，但這是正確的水平嗎？繼續使用？

Yes. I think from a fee standpoint, let's break down to 2 big pieces. So our service charge number relative to our 24-hour grace that was implemented in the middle of the second quarter. So we have a full quarter run rate on that. We don't see that changing materially. We've been very proud of our treasury management team. They've done a good job of penetrating our commercial base. And we're seeing that hold up pretty well. So I don't think you should see the kind of decline in service charges that you just saw.

是的。我認為從費用的角度來看，讓我們分成兩大塊。因此，我們的服務費數字是相對於第二季中期實施的 24 小時寬限期而言的。所以我們有一個完整的季度運行率。我們認為這種情況不會發生實質改變。我們對我們的財務管理團隊感到非常自豪。他們在滲透我們的商業基礎方面做得很好。我們看到這種情況非常有效。所以我認為你不應該看到剛才看到的服務費下降。

The only thing that can affect us in fees would be, there's a discussion going on with debit interchange and has been percentages thrown out as to what that may mean, just to level set with everybody, we have about $310 million of debit per year. So whatever percentage change we have, you can do your own math on that. We're not sure that, that will even come out, but that's been mentioned. And so we thought -- I'd just put that out there.

唯一能影響我們費用的事情是，正在進行有關借記交換的討論，並且已經放棄了這可能意味著什麼的百分比，只是為了與每個人設定水平，我們每年大約有 3.1 億美元的借記。因此，無論我們有什麼百分比變化，您都可以對此進行自己的計算。我們不確定這一點，甚至會出現，但已經提到了。所以我們想——我就把它放在那裡。

That's fair. And David, can I just come back on the capital point. You're comfortably in that 10-plus zone. And there's obviously not a lot of current growth in the loan book. So just the push and pull of potentially reengaging in the buyback versus just keeping where you are in a less -- bit of more uncertain environment. Kind of just walk us through -- just what would be your thought process there?

這還算公平。大衛，我可以回到主要觀點嗎？您很舒服地處於 10+ 區域。目前貸款帳目顯然沒有太多成長。因此，只是可能重新參與回購的推力和拉力，而不是在不確定性較小的環境中維持現狀。請給我們介紹一下－您的思考過程是怎麼樣的？

Sure. So as you know, we do an awful lot of stress testing we do it constantly. We have our CCAR submission. We have a midyear submission. We feel very confident that even if we go into a recession, which we are not calling for, but even if we did, we'd have capital to withstand that.

當然。如您所知，我們經常進行大量壓力測試。我們已經提交了 CCAR 申請。我們有一份年中提交的資料。我們非常有信心，即使我們陷入衰退（我們並沒有呼籲這樣做），但即使發生，我們也有資本來承受。

So it's all about optimization, Ken. And we think that -- we still believe our operating range of 9.25 to 9.75 is the right range for Regions based on our risk profile. That being said, we've had an NPR, we have uncertainty going on. So we added 50 basis points to give us the flexibility to adapt and overcome whatever environment is thrown at us.

所以這都是關於優化的，肯。我們認為，根據我們的風險狀況，我們仍然相信 9.25 至 9.75 的操作範圍對於各地區來說是正確的範圍。話雖這麼說，我們已經有了 NPR，但我們仍然存在不確定性。因此，我們增加了 50 個基點，以便我們能夠靈活地適應和克服遇到的任何環境。

We don't see the need to take 10.3 and let it ride up to 10.6, 10.9 and keep going. And so that's what gives us confidence. We don't have a big CRE book like others do. We don't have the risk that some others do. And we have a very good engine.

我們認為沒有必要先達到 10.3，然後讓它升至 10.6、10.9，然後繼續前進。這就是給我們信心的原因。我們不像其他人那樣有一本厚厚的 CRE 書籍。我們沒有其他人那樣的風險。我們有一個非常好的引擎。

Our PPNR engine is among the strongest because of our deposit profile that we have. And so we have confidence that our earnings stream is going to get us where we need to be, and we think that we have enough capital right now. So if we generate more, we can buy our stock back.

由於我們擁有的存款概況，我們的 PPNR 引擎是最強大的。因此，我們有信心我們的收入流將使我們達到我們需要的目標，我們認為我們現在有足夠的資本。因此，如果我們生產更多，我們就可以回購我們的股票。

Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

David, my first question is for you. I feel like -- given the reaction of the stock, I think it's probably best to completely derisk consensus numbers, right? So forgive me for asking a super specific question.

大衛，我的第一個問題是問你的。我覺得——考慮到股票的反應，我認為最好完全消除共識數字的風險，對吧？所以請原諒我問一個很具體的問題。

But based on the disclosure of the swap book and everything that you're telling us about deposit behavior and higher for longer, it seems like you could hit that sort of $350 million trough in the first quarter, kind of stay there, maybe go up a little bit and then get towards $3.6 million if not a little bit over $3.6 million by 4Q, '23. So that gives you sort of a full year of, let's call it, between $3.5 million, $3.55 million before '24. Again, based on the forward curve, based on slow growth, does that feel fair?

但根據掉期帳簿的披露以及您告訴我們的有關存款行為的所有內容以及更長時間內更高的存款行為，似乎您可能會在第一季度達到3.5 億美元的低谷，有點停留在那裡，也許會上升一點點，然後到 23 年第四季達到 360 萬美元（如果不是超過 360 萬美元一點的話）。因此，在 24 年前，我們可以說一整年的收入在 350 萬美元到 355 萬美元之間。同樣，基於遠期曲線，基於緩慢增長，這感覺公平嗎？

I think you're pretty good at math. I don't know if that's -- you've nailed exactly...

我認為你數學很好。我不知道那是不是——你已經準確地釘住了......

We're not giving any guidance.

我們不提供任何指導。

We're not giving any guidance. You've done pretty well. You're understanding exactly how this works in terms of bigger downdraft in the fourth quarter than you'll see in the first part of the year and then be able to grow from there. So directionally, you're exactly right.

我們不提供任何指導。你已經做得很好了。你會確切地理解這是如何運作的，因為第四季度的下降幅度比今年上半年更大，然後能夠從那裡開始成長。所以從方向上來說，你是完全正確的。

Got it. And I'll follow up with David (inaudible) size of the balance sheet later because I do want to ask the second question of John, I think -- I guess what was surprising to me is that you had like a BNPL solar thing to begin with, right?

知道了。稍後我會跟進大衛（聽不清楚）資產負債表的規模，因為我確實想問約翰的第二個問題，我想——我想令我驚訝的是，你有一個 BNPL 太陽能專案開始吧？

So Regions has done a great job at not only convincing investors that it's completely changed in terms of underwriting and risk management, but also that in the numbers. And I guess this is a 2-part question.

因此，Regions 不僅讓投資者相信它在核保和風險管理方面已經徹底改變，而且在數字方面也做得非常出色。我想這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。

Number one, as you think about an uncertain [road] ahead, do you feel like you've sort of fully captured like things like that, the BNPL solar that you're now discontinuing that may not be (inaudible) something that you would normally do under your real risk management profile.

第一，當你考慮前方不確定的[道路]時，你是否覺得你已經完全掌握了類似的事情，你現在正在停止的 BNPL 太陽能可能不是（聽不清）你想要的東西通常根據您的真實風險管理狀況進行。

And maybe the follow-up question to that is the 35, 45 basis points, I think a lot of investors are thinking about a mild recession in 2024. Maybe it just feels like for bank investors versus other types of investors. But in that case, where would Regions peak (inaudible) recession relative to that 35, 45 basis point range for next year?

也許後續問題是 35、45 個基點，我認為很多投資者都在考慮 2024 年的溫和衰退。也許這只是銀行投資者與其他類型投資者的感覺。但在這種情況下，相對於明年 35、45 個基點範圍，各地區的衰退高峰（聽不清楚）會在哪裡？

I think the answer to your first question is, yes, to anything that we're -- we feel like we've been through our portfolios, certainly been through the new businesses we've acquired in any products or programs that don't meet our risk and return profiles we've exited.

我認為你的第一個問題的答案是，是的，我們所做的一切——我們覺得我們已經通過了我們的投資組合，當然也通過了我們在任何產品或計劃中收購的新業務，但這些產品或計劃並沒有滿足我們已經退出的風險和回報概況。

And in the case of this particular program, as I mentioned, we exited it in 2022 because of the structure of it, we've only begun to see some results. And frankly, those results probably are consistent with our expectations when we shut the program down.

就這個特定計劃而言，正如我所提到的，由於其結構，我們在 2022 年退出了它，我們才剛開始看到一些結果。坦白說，這些結果可能與我們關閉該計劃時的預期一致。

So we are continuing to always evaluating the performance of our products, of our capabilities, our businesses, our portfolios to ensure that we're getting an appropriate return on the business that we do. And so I'm pretty comfortable there.

因此，我們將繼續評估我們的產品、我們的能力、我們的業務、我們的產品組合的性能，以確保我們從我們所做的業務中獲得適當的回報。所以我在那裡很舒服。

With respect to our guidance of 35 to 45 basis points, in the period of 2014 to 2019, our average charge-offs were 38 basis points. And so I think we feel, and we have contemplated, we believe, what we consider to be the probability of a soft landing versus a mild recession in our projections for charge-offs. And at this point, we still feel good about the 35 to 45 basis points in 2024.

就我們35至45個基點的指導而言，2014年至2019年期間，我們的平均沖銷為38個基點。因此，我認為我們認為，並且我們已經考慮過，我們相信，在我們的沖銷預測中，我們認為軟著陸與溫和衰退的可能性是什麼。目前來看，我們仍然對 2024 年 35 至 45 個基點感到滿意。

I would add to David that -- if you think about recessions probably if it comes, it would be, we think, fairly mild. As we look at consumers and we can look at them through the checking account and activity going in there, we look at businesses, we talk to our business partners all the time. Businesses and consumers are in pretty good shape.

我想向大衛補充一點——如果你考慮一下經濟衰退，如果它真的到來的話，我們認為，這將是相當溫和的。當我們觀察消費者時，我們可以透過支票帳戶和那裡的活動來觀察他們，我們觀察企業，我們一直與我們的業務合作夥伴交談。企業和消費者的狀況都很好。

And in particular, for the consumer, if you look at housing prices, those continue to remain strong and a lot of our lending, if you will, in the consumer space is tied to the house -- to the home. So I think that we have a bit of a buffer.

特別是對於消費者來說，如果你看看房價，你會發現房價繼續保持強勁，如果你願意的話，我們在消費領域的許多貸款都與房子掛鉤。所以我認為我們有一點緩衝。

And going back to the history that John just mentioned the 38 basis points between '14 and '19 gives us confidence that even if we did that, we'd be in that range.

回顧約翰剛剛提到的 14 至 19 年間 38 個基點的歷史，讓我們有信心即使我們這樣做，我們也會處於這個範圍內。

Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自馬南·戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

You noted that higher rates are pushing up deposit betas and also changing the mix in NIB and IV deposits. Some of your peers have been saying we're closer to the end of this. Do you think that there's anything different that you're seeing versus peers? Or is your deposit strategy changing in any way given the increased likelihood of higher for longer rates?

您指出，較高的利率正在推高存款貝塔值，也改變了 NIB 和 IV 存款的結構。你們的一些同行一直在說我們已經接近結束了。您認為您所看到的與同行相比有什麼不同嗎？或者，鑑於長期利率較高的可能性增加，您的存款策略是否會發生任何變化？

I don't think our deposit base, if anything, is a bit better than the peer group. We don't have anything unique to us that would cause our beta to be higher than anybody else in this rising rate environment. As a matter of fact, we did happen to grow more noninterest-bearing deposits during the pandemic than most of our peers, and that's being put to work. So that element of it maybe that piece of it is a bit different.

我不認為我們的存款基礎（如果有的話）比同行好一點。在這個利率上升的環境中，我們沒有任何獨特的東西會導致我們的貝塔值高於其他任何人。事實上，在疫情期間，我們確實比大多數同業增加了更多的無息存款，而且這一點正在發揮作用。所以它的那個元素也許它的那一部分有點不同。

And that's what we called for in the guidance that we've given you that it would remix into interest-bearing accounts. We still have a low loan deposit ratio. We still have not wholesale funded. So I don't think that whatever the beta is in the industry, Regions is going to be better than that. We're already better than that right now with a beta of 34%, and the peers are at 49% on a peer median basis right now. So I just don't think that if it's coming to the end, it will come to the end for us, too.

這就是我們在給您的指導中所要求的，它將重新混合到計息帳戶中。我們的貸存比仍然較低。我們還沒有批發資金。因此，我認為無論行業的測試版如何，Regions 都不會比這更好。我們現在已經比這個更好了，貝塔值為 34%，而同行目前的中位數為 49%。所以我只是認為，如果事情即將結束，我們也不會結束。

Got it. And then just a separate question on liquidity. Several of your peers have increased their levels of cash this quarter. How are you thinking about managing your liquidity ahead of any changes in the LCR rules?

知道了。然後是一個關於流動性的單獨問題。本季度，您的一些同行增加了現金水平。在 LCR 規則發生任何變更之前，您如何考慮管理您的流動性？

Yes. So we still have, again, a very liquid balance sheet and access to that. We maintain a good cash position right now. We haven't added to our securities book as much as some others. We think to the extent LCR comes in, we'll be able to be compliant with that without any major changes to our structure of our balance sheet.

是的。因此，我們仍然擁有流動性很強的資產負債表並且可以使用它。我們目前保持良好的現金狀況。我們沒有像其他一些公司那樣增加我們的證券帳簿。我們認為，只要 LCR 生效，我們就能夠遵守這項規定，而無需對我們的資產負債表結構進行任何重大變更。

Our final question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Gerard Cassidy 與加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的對話。

John. David, can we circle back to the Shared National Credit exam. I'm curious, obviously, it's changed over the years and if I recall correctly, they examined those books, both in the spring and the fall, which you referenced and we'll get the results early in February or sometime in February.

約翰。大衛，我們可以回到共享國家信用考試嗎？我很好奇，顯然，多年來情況發生了變化，如果我沒記錯的話，他們在春季和秋季檢查了這些書，您提到了這些書，我們將在二月初或二月的某個時候得到結果。

But can you share with us any color like what was the emphasis? Was it on leveraged loans? Was it an office commercial real estate? Was there greater stress in certain markets over others? Just any elaboration would be helpful.

但可以和我們分享什麼顏色是強調的嗎？是槓桿貸款嗎？是辦公室商業地產嗎？某些市場的壓力是否比其他市場更大？任何詳細說明都會有所幫助。

Yes, Gerard. This is John. I don't -- we didn't notice anything specific about the most recent exam. It was broad-based, both with respect to product type and business and geography.

是的，傑拉德。這是約翰。我沒有——我們沒有註意到最近一次考試的任何具體情況。無論是在產品類型、業務或地理方面，它的基礎都很廣泛。

Very good. And then you guys touched a little bit about the economy in your markets, you give us, obviously, the forecast you use and building out CECL reserves. What are you guys seeing down there? There are so many crosscurrents going on in the national numbers. Still -- I'm assuming there's strength, there's employment strength, there's business trends. Any color there would be helpful as well.

非常好。然後你們談到了你們市場的經濟狀況，顯然，你們給了我們你們使用的預測以及建立 CECL 儲備的預測。你們在下面看到什麼？全國數據中存在著如此多的矛盾。儘管如此，我還是假設有實力、有就業實力、有商業趨勢。任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. across the Southeast, which is where 86% of our deposits are in 7 Southeastern states, we had Texas it goes above 90%. We're still seeing a pretty strong economy in 7 of the 8 Southeastern states that we would point to.

是的。在整個東南部地區，我們 86% 的礦藏分佈在東南部 7 個州，其中德州的比例超過 90%。在我們提到的 8 個東南部州中，有 7 個州的經濟仍然相當強勁。

Unemployment rates are at or near historical lows. Customers are still -- consumers are still in a very good position. There are plenty of work. There are routinely economic development projects, new jobs being announced across markets, Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, and of course, Texas is continue to do really well.

失業率處於或接近歷史低點。客戶仍然－消費者仍然處於非常有利的地位。有很多工作要做。阿拉巴馬州、田納西州、喬治亞州、佛羅裡達州、密西西比州等各市場都會定期推出經濟發展項目和新就業崗位，當然，德州也持續表現出色。

So I'd say customer sentiment is still positive, but cautious given all the things that are going on, both the national and international geopolitical level. But customers are -- businesses are still doing pretty well and the consumer definitely is.

因此，我想說，客戶情緒仍然積極，但考慮到國內和國際地緣政治層面正在發生的所有事情，客戶情緒仍保持謹慎。但客戶——企業仍然表現得很好，消費者也確實如此。

Actually, John, just to follow up quickly there, putting the geopolitical international issues on the side for a moment, do you have any sense what the customers are looking for to give them more confidence?

實際上，約翰，只是為了快速跟進，暫時將地緣政治國際問題放在一邊，您是否知道客戶正在尋求什麼來給他們更多信心？

Is it a Fed finishing with interest rates -- raising interest rates, do we get to that terminal rate? Or is it better budgeting out of Washington? What are -- because we hear this from your peers as well, so it's not uncommon, but we're -- I'm trying to figure out what the catalyst will be, where businesses really get confident again?

聯準會是否會升息——升息，我們能達到最終利率嗎？還是在華盛頓以外進行預算比較好？什麼是——因為我們也從你們的同行那裡聽到了這一點，所以這並不罕見，但我們——我正在試圖找出催化劑是什麼，企業真正會再次變得有信心嗎？

I think the biggest thing is Federal Reserve and the Fed making a declaration that inflation is now under control and that they're not going to continue to raise rates, don't have to continue to raise rates. I think sending that message and creating a sense that the environment is more stable than others might -- business owners may feel today would be hugely helpful.

我認為最重要的是聯準會和聯準會宣布通膨現已受到控制，他們不會繼續升息，也不必繼續升息。我認為傳達這一訊息並營造一種環境比其他環境更穩定的感覺——企業主今天可能會覺得會非常有幫助。

With respect to what's going on at the national level politically, I don't know that I have an answer for you there, and I don't expect that to change anytime in the near term.

關於國家層級政治上正在發生的事情，我不知道我能為你提供答案，而且我預期這種情況在短期內不會改變。

Okay. That's all the calls for today. I appreciate you participating. Thank you. I'll just say it has been an unusual quarter. It had a number of things going on.

好的。這就是今天所有的呼籲。我很感謝你的參與。謝謝。我只想說這是一個不尋常的季度。它發生了很多事情。

But at the core, our business is really sound and solid. We have spent the last 10 years working to build a balance sheet and income statement that's going to be consistently performing, sustainable and resilient. And we believe we've done that.

但從本質上講，我們的業務確實健全且穩固。在過去的 10 年裡，我們致力於建立一個持續表現、可持續且有彈性的資產負債表和損益表。我們相信我們已經做到了。

We have a lot of confidence in our future performance and appreciate your support. Thank you.

我們對未來的表現充滿信心，並感謝您的支持。謝謝。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。