(RF) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation's Quarterly Earnings Call. My name is Christine, and I will be your operator for today's call.

早上好，歡迎參加地區金融公司的季度收益電話會議。我叫克里斯汀，我是今天電話的接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

我現在將把電話轉給達納·諾蘭開始。

Thank you, Christine. Welcome to Regions Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding the quarter. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。約翰和大衛將提供有關本季度的高級評論。收益文件，包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則信息，可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取。這些披露內容包括我們的演示材料、準備好的評論和問答。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. Once again, Regions delivered another solid quarter, underscoring our commitment to generating consistent, sustainable long-term performance. We generated earnings of $556 million resulting in earnings per share of $0.59 and one of the best return on average tangible common equity ratios in our peer group at 24%. Our consistent strong earnings performance has given the board confidence to increase the quarterly common stock dividend by 20%, which was officially reported in a press release earlier this week.

謝謝你，達納，大家早上好。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。各地區再次實現了又一個穩健的季度業績，突顯了我們對實現一致、可持續的長期業績的承諾。我們實現了 5.56 億美元的盈利，每股收益為 0.59 美元，平均有形普通股股本回報率為 24%，是同行中最好的公司之一。我們持續強勁的盈利表現讓董事會有信心將季度普通股股息增加 20%，本週早些時候的新聞稿中正式報導了這一點。

Although some lingering economic uncertainty remains, we feel good about our ability to carry this momentum into the second half of the year. We continue to benefit from our strong and diverse balance sheet, robust liquidity position, and prudent credit risk management. Our proactive hedging strategies have positioned us for success in any interest rate environment. And our granular deposit base and relationship-based banking approach continue to serve us well.

儘管經濟不確定性依然存在，但我們對今年下半年保持這一勢頭的能力感到滿意。我們繼續受益於強大而多元化的資產負債表、穩健的流動性狀況和審慎的信用風險管理。我們積極主動的對沖策略使我們能夠在任何利率環境下取得成功。我們精細的存款基礎和基於關係的銀行業務方法繼續為我們提供良好的服務。

Overall sentiment among our corporate customers remains relatively positive despite ongoing labor shortages, persistent inflationary pressure and slowly improving supply chain issues. In fact, most are continuing to forecast solid performance in 2023, although they are expecting modest declines from levels experienced in 2022. We remain committed to serving our customers while maintaining our focus on risk-adjusted returns. We're being judicious with capital, preserving it for our best clients and relationships.

儘管勞動力持續短缺、通脹壓力持續存在以及供應鏈問題緩慢改善，但我們的企業客戶的整體情緒仍然相對積極。事實上，儘管他們預計 2023 年的業績將較 2022 年的水平略有下降，但大多數人仍繼續預測 2023 年的穩健業績。我們仍然致力於為客戶提供服務，同時繼續關注風險調整後的回報。我們謹慎對待資本，為我們最好的客戶和關係保留它。

Year-to-date, the corporate bank has grown loans 2%, in line with our expectations with the vast majority of this growth coming from existing customers. Our consumer customers also remain healthy. Unemployment in 7 of our 8 top states remains at or near historical lows. And housing prices in 13 of our 15 states are forecast to outperform the HPI index in 2023. Wages in much of our footprint have kept pace with or exceeded increases in inflation. And as a result, consumer deposit balances and credit card payment rates remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.

今年迄今為止，該公司銀行的貸款增長了 2%，符合我們的預期，其中絕大多數增長來自現有客戶。我們的消費者客戶也保持健康。 8 個州中，有 7 個州的失業率仍處於或接近歷史低點。預計到 2023 年，我們 15 個州中有 13 個州的房價將跑贏 HPI 指數。我們大部分地區的工資與通脹增長保持同步或超過通脹增長。因此，消費者存款餘額和信用卡支付率仍高於大流行前的水平。

Our credit quality remains strong. Although normalization continues, charge-offs remain below historical through-the-cycle levels. We also continue to benefit from the strategic investments we're making in our business. For example, over the last few years, we focused on enhancing our treasury management suite of products and services. We've invested in talent and technology, including data and analytics, improving our ability to provide our clients with data-driven insights.

我們的信用質量依然強勁。儘管正常化仍在繼續，但沖銷仍低於整個週期的歷史水平。我們還繼續受益於我們在業務中進行的戰略投資。例如，在過去幾年中，我們專注於增強我們的資金管理產品和服務套件。我們投資於人才和技術，包括數據和分析，提高了我們為客戶提供數據驅動的見解的能力。

Today, our relationship managers lead every prospective client conversation with a cash flow mindset, enabling us to clearly understand our customer needs. We are very pleased with the success of our treasury management business which has produced 13% revenue growth year-over-year. Although our penetration rate for treasury management solutions ranks among the top versus peers, we continue to see further opportunity in our existing customer base, particularly in lowering commercial.

如今，我們的客戶關係經理以現金流思維方式引導每一次潛在客戶的對話，使我們能夠清楚地了解客戶的需求。我們對資金管理業務的成功感到非常高興，收入同比增長了 13%。儘管我們的資金管理解決方案的滲透率在同行中名列前茅，但我們繼續在現有客戶群中看到更多機會，特別是在降低商業成本方面。

Additionally, during the second quarter, we introduced regions no-cost Overdraft Grace feature, giving consumers the opportunity to remedy overdrafts and avoid fees. To date, the data indicates that customers are seeing an approximate 30% reduction in the occurrence of assessed fees. We're excited about the financial benefits and flexibility, our customers are enjoying as a result of the changes we've made over the past 2 years. We also continue to actively search for investment opportunities with respect to mortgage servicing rights.

此外，在第二季度，我們推出了地區免費透支寬限功能，讓消費者有機會補救透支並避免產生費用。迄今為止，數據表明客戶的評估費用減少了約 30%。我們對我們的客戶在過去兩年中所做的變革所帶來的財務收益和靈活性感到興奮。我們還繼續積極尋找抵押貸款服務權方面的投資機會。

And during the last 18 months, we've acquired the rights to service of approximately $23 billion in mortgage loans through a combination of bulk purchases and flow deals. These are just a few examples of our commitment to investing in markets, technology, talent and capabilities that grow and diversify our revenue base and enhance offerings to our customers.

在過去 18 個月中，我們通過大宗採購和流動交易相結合，獲得了約 230 億美元抵押貸款的服務權。這些只是我們致力於投資市場、技術、人才和能力的幾個例子，這些投資將擴大我們的收入基礎並使其多樣化，並增強為客戶提供的服務。

Now Dave will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

現在戴夫將提供有關本季度的一些亮點。

Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average loans increased 1% sequentially. Average business loans also increased 1% reflecting high-quality, broad-based growth across the telecommunications, multifamily and energy industries. Loan demand remained stable during the quarter, and we had the opportunity to continue growing faster. However, as John mentioned, we are committed to appropriate risk-adjusted returns and now is not the time to stretch for growth. We are focused on supporting existing customers where we have a relationship and proven history.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們從資產負債表開始。平均貸款環比增長 1%。平均商業貸款也增長了 1%，反映出電信、多戶家庭和能源行業高質量、廣泛的增長。本季度貸款需求保持穩定，我們有機會繼續更快增長。然而，正如約翰提到的，我們致力於獲得適當的風險調整回報，現在還不是追求增長的時候。我們專注於支持與我們有關係且歷史悠久的現有客戶。

Approximately 84% of this quarter's business loan growth was driven by existing clients accessing and expanding their credit lines. Average consumer loans increased 1% as growth in mortgage and EnerBank was partially offset by declines in home equity and runoff exit portfolios. Looking forward, we expect 2023 ending loan growth of 3% to 4%.

本季度大約 84% 的商業貸款增長是由現有客戶獲得和擴大信貸額度推動的。平均消費貸款增長了 1%，因為抵押貸款和 EnerBank 的增長被房屋淨值和徑流退出投資組合的下降部分抵消。展望未來，我們預計 2023 年末貸款增長率為 3% 至 4%。

From a deposit standpoint, our deposit base remains a strength and a differentiating factor across the peer set with balances continuing to largely perform as expected. Our deposits are highly operational in nature, granular in size and generally receive more coverage through FDIC insurance than most peers. Although banking turmoil linked the first quarter introduced some additional uncertainty to the company's outlook, deposits largely performed as expected, ending the first half of the year down $4.8 billion.

從存款的角度來看，我們的存款基礎仍然是一個優勢，也是與同行相比的一個差異化因素，餘額繼續基本符合預期。我們的存款本質上具有高度可操作性，規模細化，並且通常比大多數同行通過 FDIC 保險獲得更多的保障。儘管第一季度的銀行業動盪給該公司的前景帶來了一些額外的不確定性，但存款基本符合預期，今年上半年末減少了 48 億美元。

As part of our practice of maintaining a diversity of funding sources, total deposits include approximately $1 billion of deposits composed of brokered CDs and wholesale market transactions. Recall, this is in addition to the brokered CDs, we acquired as part of the EnerBank acquisition, which are maturing over time. Deposit declines came largely from higher balance and more rate-sensitive customers across all 3 businesses.

作為我們保持資金來源多元化的做法的一部分，總存款包括約 10 億美元的存款，由經紀 CD 和批發市場交易組成。回想一下，這是我們在收購 EnerBank 時獲得的經紀 CD 的補充，這些 CD 會隨著時間的推移而成熟。存款下降主要是由於所有 3 項業務的餘額較高和對利率更加敏感的客戶。

We also saw continued diversification of customer dollars across various Regions offerings, such as from interest-free checking to CDs or money market deposits and movement out of deposits to offerings through our Wealth Management platform and in the corporate banking segment, utilization of off-balance sheet money market mutual fund solutions.

我們還看到不同地區的客戶資金持續多樣化，例如從無息支票到存款證或貨幣市場存款，以及通過我們的財富管理平台和企業銀行業務將存款轉移到產品中，利用表外資金貨幣市場共同基金解決方案。

In the case of corporate clients, overall liquidity under management has remained solid, increasing almost 3% since the end of the first quarter. Looking forward, a tightening Federal Reserve observed through increasing interest rates and reductions in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, along with heightened competition will likely continue to constrain deposit growth for the industry through year-end. Accordingly, we expect deposits to be modestly lower over the balance of the year, and we expect the continued remixing into interest-bearing categories.

就企業客戶而言，管理下的整體流動性保持穩健，自第一季度末以來增加了近 3%。展望未來，通過加息和縮減美聯儲資產負債表觀察到的美聯儲緊縮政策，以及競爭的加劇，可能會在年底前繼續限制該行業的存款增長。因此，我們預計今年剩餘時間存款將小幅下降，並且我們預計存款將繼續重新混入計息類別。

So let's shift to net interest income and margin. As expected, net interest income declined by 2.5% in the second quarter. This represents the beginning of a reversion from elevated net interest income and margin levels back towards our longer-term range, mostly due to deposit and funding cost normalization. Regions' balance sheet remains asset sensitive. As the Federal Reserve nears the end of its tightening cycle, the net interest income is supported by elevated floating rate loan and cash yields at higher market interest rates and fixed rate asset turnover from the maturity of lower-yielding loans and securities.

那麼讓我們轉向淨利息收入和利潤率。正如預期，第二季度淨利息收入下降2.5%。這代表淨利息收入和利潤率水平開始從較高水平回歸到我們的長期範圍，這主要是由於存款和融資成本正常化。地區資產負債表仍然對資產敏感。隨著美聯儲緊縮週期接近尾聲，淨利息收入受到市場利率較高的浮動利率貸款和現金收益率上升以及低收益貸款和證券到期的固定利率資產周轉率的支撐。

At this stage in the rate cycle, we expect deposit cost increases through a continuation of repricing and remixing trends. Importantly, recent trends remain within our expectation. The cycle-to-date deposit beta is 26%. And our guidance for 2023 is unchanged, a 35% cycle-to-date beta by year-end. Longer term, deposit performance will be heavily influenced by the amount of time monetary policy remains tight. Deposit betas could ultimately exceed the 35% in 2024 assuming higher rates for longer. Regardless, we remain confident that our deposit composition will provide a meaningful competitive advantage for Regions when compared to the broader industry.

在利率週期的現階段，我們預計存款成本會因重新定價和重新混合趨勢的持續而增加。重要的是，最近的趨勢仍在我們的預期之內。週期至今的存款貝塔值為 26%。我們對 2023 年的指導保持不變，到年底為止週期迄今的貝塔值為 35%。從長期來看，存款表現將很大程度上受到貨幣政策保持緊縮的時間長短的影響。假設利率在更長時間內保持較高水平，到 2024 年，存款貝塔係數最終可能會超過 35%。無論如何，我們仍然相信，與更廣泛的行業相比，我們的存款構成將為各地區提供有意義的競爭優勢。

Net interest income is projected to grow between 12% and 14% in 2023 when compared to 2022. The midpoint of the range is supported using June 30 market forward interest rates or approximately 1 additional 25 basis point hike this year. Third quarter net interest income is expected to decline approximately 5%, driven by continued deposit and funding cost normalization and the beginning of the active hedging period for a number of previously transacted forward-starting receive fixed swaps.

與 2022 年相比，預計 2023 年淨利息收入將增長 12% 至 14%。該範圍的中點由 6 月 30 日市場遠期利率或今年約 1 次額外加息 25 個基點支撐。第三季度淨利息收入預計將下降約 5%，這是由於存款和融資成本持續正常化以及一些先前交易的遠期啟動接收固定掉期的主動對沖期開始的推動。

The balance sheet hedging program is an important source of earnings stability in today's uncertain environment. Hedges added to date create a well-protected net interest margin profile through 2025. While no meaningful hedging was transacted during the quarter, we continue to look for opportunities to add balance sheet protection beyond 2025 at attractive market rate levels.

在當今不確定的環境中，資產負債表對沖計劃是盈利穩定的重要來源。迄今為止增加的對沖創造了一個到 2025 年受到良好保護的淨息差狀況。雖然本季度沒有進行任何有意義的對沖交易，但我們將繼續尋找機會，以有吸引力的市場利率水平在 2025 年之後增加資產負債表保護。

Since quarter end, we have added $1 billion of forward starting swaps and $500 million of forward starting rate collars, near recent highs that will become effective in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The resulting balance sheet is constructed to support a net interest margin range of 3.6% to 4% over the coming years, even if interest rates move back towards 1%. If rates remain elevated, our net interest margin is projected to remain at or above the midpoint of the range.

自季度末以來，我們增加了 10 億美元的遠期起始掉期和 5 億美元的遠期起始利率區間，接近近期高點，並將於 2026 年、2027 年和 2028 年生效。由此產生的資產負債表旨在支持淨息差範圍即使利率回落至 1%，未來幾年仍將增長 3.6% 至 4%。如果利率保持高位，我們的淨息差預計將保持在或高於該範圍的中點。

Let's take a look at fee revenue and expense. Adjusted noninterest income increased 8% from the prior quarter as increases in capital markets and card and ATM fees were partially offset by declines in other categories. Total capital markets income increased $26 million. Excluding the impact of CVA and DVA, capital markets increased 3% sequentially, driven primarily by growth in real estate capital markets, partially offset by declines in M&A fees, debt underwriting and loan syndication income.

我們來看看費用收入和費用。調整後的非利息收入較上一季度增長 8%，原因是資本市場以及銀行卡和 ATM 費用的增長被其他類別的下降部分抵消。資本市場總收入增加 2600 萬美元。剔除CVA和DVA的影響，資本市場環比增長3%，主要受到房地產資本市場增長的推動，但部分被併購費用、債務承銷和銀團貸款收入的下降所抵消。

We had a negative $9 million CVA and DVA adjustment, reflecting credit spread tightening during the quarter. However, this was a $24 million improvement versus the first quarter. Card and ATM fees increased 7%, driven by seasonally higher spend and transaction volume as well as a first quarter $5 million rewards reserve adjustment that did not repeat.

我們的 CVA 和 DVA 調整為負 900 萬美元，反映出本季度信用利差收緊。然而，這比第一季度增加了 2400 萬美元。卡和 ATM 費用增長了 7%，原因是支出和交易量季節性增加，以及第一季度 500 萬美元的獎勵準備金調整併未重複。

Service charges declined slightly during the quarter. As John mentioned, we introduced our Overdraft Grace feature in mid-June. Based on our experience to date, we now expect full year service charges of approximately $575 million. With respect to outlook, we continue to expect full year 2023 adjusted total revenue to be up 6% to 8% compared to 2022.

本季度服務費略有下降。正如約翰提到的，我們在六月中旬推出了透支寬限功能。根據我們迄今為止的經驗，我們現在預計全年服務費約為 5.75 億美元。就前景而言，我們繼續預計 2023 年全年調整後總收入將比 2022 年增長 6% 至 8%。

Let's move on to noninterest expense. Adjusted noninterest expense increased 8% compared to the prior quarter and includes the previously announced elevated operating losses related to check fraud. Excluding the approximately $80 million associated with incremental check fraud incurred this quarter, adjusted noninterest expenses remained relatively stable versus the prior quarter. We have effective countermeasures in place and losses have returned to normalized levels. Salaries and benefits decreased 2%, primarily due to lower payroll taxes and 401(k) expense partially offset by an entire quarter of annual merit increases and higher headcount.

讓我們繼續討論非利息支出。調整後的非利息支出與上一季度相比增加了 8%，其中包括之前宣布的與支票欺詐相關的運營損失增加。不包括本季度發生的與增量支票欺詐相關的約 8000 萬美元，調整後的非利息支出與上一季度相比保持相對穩定。我們採取了有效的應對措施，損失已恢復到正常水平。工資和福利下降了 2%，主要是由於工資稅和 401(k) 費用的降低被整個季度的年度績效增長和員工人數增加部分抵消。

The FDIC insurance assessment increase was driven by changes in various inputs, including normalized credit conditions and increases in average assets. We remain committed to prudently managing expenses in order to continue funding investments in our business, including optimizing square footage. As an example, this quarter, we entered into an agreement to sell 2 of our largest operation centers, totaling over 450,000 square feet. We will continue to refine our expense base, focusing on our largest categories, which include salaries and benefits, occupancy and vendor spend. We expect full year 2023 adjusted noninterest expenses to be up approximately 6.5% and continue to expect to generate positive adjusted operating leverage.

FDIC 保險評估的增加是由各種投入的變化推動的，包括標準化的信貸條件和平均資產的增加。我們仍然致力於謹慎管理開支，以便繼續為我們的業務投資提供資金，包括優化面積。例如，本季度，我們簽訂了出售兩個最大運營中心的協議，總面積超過 450,000 平方英尺。我們將繼續完善我們的支出基礎，重點關注我們最大的類別，其中包括工資和福利、入住率和供應商支出。我們預計 2023 年全年調整後非利息支出將增長約 6.5%，並繼續預計產生正的調整後運營槓桿。

From an asset quality standpoint, overall credit performance continues to normalize as expected. Net charge-offs were 33 basis points in the quarter. Nonperforming loans decreased while business service criticized loans and total delinquencies increased. Provision expense was $118 million or $37 million in excess of net charge-offs. The allowance for credit loss ratio increased 2 basis points to 1.65% and the allowance as a percentage of nonperforming loans increased to 332%. The allowance increased due primarily to normalizing credit, modest economic outlook changes and loan growth.

從資產質量來看，整體信用表現繼續正常化，符合預期。本季度淨沖銷為 33 個基點。不良貸款減少，而商業服務批評貸款和拖欠總額增加。撥備費用為 1.18 億美元，比淨沖銷額多 3,700 萬美元。信用損失準備金率上升2個基點至1.65%，撥備佔不良貸款比例上升至332%。準備金增加主要是由於信貸正常化、經濟前景溫和變化以及貸款增長。

Allowance for credit losses on the office portfolio increased from 2.2% in to 2.7%. Importantly, the single office loan on nonperforming status is paying as agreed. Additionally, the vast majority of our office exposure is in Class A properties, located primarily within the Sunbelt. Overall, we continue to feel good about the composition of our office book and do not expect any meaningful loss in this portfolio. While we expect net charge-offs will continue to normalize over the back half of the year, we continue to expect our full year 2023 net charge-off ratio to be approximately 35 basis points. We also expect to return to our historical through-the-cycle annual charge-off range of 35 to 45 basis points in 2024.

寫字樓投資組合的信貸損失準備金從 2.2% 增加至 2.7%。重要的是，不良狀態下的單一辦公室貸款正在按約定支付。此外，我們的絕大多數辦公室位於 A 級物業，主要位於陽光地帶。總體而言，我們仍然對我們的辦公賬簿的構成感到滿意，並且預計該投資組合不會出現任何重大損失。雖然我們預計淨沖銷將在今年下半年繼續正常化，但我們仍然預計 2023 年全年淨沖銷比率將約為 35 個基點。我們還預計到 2024 年將恢復到歷史上 35 至 45 個基點的全週期年度沖銷範圍。

From a capital standpoint, we ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio at an estimated 10.1%. Although we were not required to participate in this year's supervisory capital stress test, we did receive our preliminary Stress Capital Buffer reflecting planned capital changes, including the dividend increase John referenced. Our preliminary Stress Capital Buffer will remain at 2.5% from the fourth quarter of 2023 through the third quarter of 2024. Additionally, we have access to sources of liquidity at June 30, totaling approximately $53 billion including collateral we have in a ready status at the Federal Home Loan Bank, the Federal Reserve's Bank Term funding program and the discount window. These sources are sufficient to cover all retail uninsured deposits plus wholesale nonoperational deposits by approximately a 3:1 ratio. Given current macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory uncertainty, we anticipate continuing to manage capital levels at or modestly above 10% over the near term.

從資本角度來看，本季度末我們的普通股一級資本比率估計為 10.1%。儘管我們沒有被要求參加今年的監管資本壓力測試，但我們確實收到了初步的壓力資本緩衝，反映了計劃的資本變化，包括約翰提到的股息增加。從 2023 年第四季度到 2024 年第三季度，我們的初步壓力資本緩衝將保持在 2.5%。此外，我們截至 6 月 30 日可以獲得流動性來源，總計約 530 億美元，包括我們在 2023 年第四季度處於準備狀態的抵押品。聯邦住房貸款銀行、美聯儲的銀行定期融資計劃和貼現窗口。這些來源足以覆蓋所有零售未保險存款加上批發非經營存款，比例約為 3:1。鑑於當前的宏觀經濟狀況和監管的不確定性，我們預計短期內將繼續將資本水平管理在 10% 或略高於 10% 的水平。

And finally, we have a slide summarizing our expectations which we have addressed throughout the prepared comments.

最後，我們有一張幻燈片總結了我們在準備評論中所討論的期望。

With that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

這樣，我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的第一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

Just wanted to ask a little on the deposit pricing thoughts. So you kept the interest-bearing deposit beta assumption, which was great, but softened the deposit growth expectation a bit. Maybe a thought or 2 on how you're thinking about the balance between flows and pricing. And then when we think about that beta assumption potentially going higher into next year as you had suggested vis-a-vis the third -- current 35% expectation. What are sort of the major puts and takes as you think about it? I mean, obviously, sort of time is a big one, but would just be curious to hear your thoughts.

只是想問一下關於存款定價的想法。因此，您保留了計息存款貝塔假設，這很好，但稍微軟化了存款增長預期。也許是關於您如何考慮流量和定價之間的平衡的一兩個想法。然後，當我們考慮到明年貝塔假設可能會更高時，正如您相對於第三個——當前 35% 的預期所建議的那樣。您認為主要的看跌期權和看跌期權有哪些？我的意思是，顯然，時間很長，但我只是想听聽你的想法。

Sure. This is David. So with regards to deposit pricing, it's important that I understand that we think about our customers, we talk to our business leaders in terms of what we need to do to support our customer base and what's going on from a competitive landscape. And so through that, we form an opinion as to what our deposit beta ought to be. And I would tell you that going into last quarter, we've had 35% beta now for -- since the beginning of the year. We had a little bit cushion in that, we believe, pretty conservative. Based on what we've seen and the competitive pressures that we've seen, and obviously, events of March 8, it's probably not as conservative. We believe it's the right number, but we don't have as much conservatism in it as we had.

當然。這是大衛。因此，就存款定價而言，重要的是我要了解我們為客戶著想，我們與業務領導者討論我們需要採取哪些措施來支持我們的客戶群以及競爭格局中發生的情況。這樣，我們就可以確定我們的存款貝塔值應該是多少。我想告訴你，進入上個季度，自年初以來，我們的貝塔值已經達到了 35%。我們認為，我們在這方面有一點緩衝，相當保守。根據我們所看到的情況和我們所看到的競爭壓力，顯然，根據 3 月 8 日發生的事件，它可能並不那麼保守。我們相信這是正確的數字，但我們並不像以前那樣保守。

With regards to what we're thinking about beta going into 2024, we really need to understand what the Fed is thinking. And right now, if they have one more increase and kind of stay on hold for a while. You probably have a couple of quarters before betas stopped creeping up on you. So we had originally called for the end of the cycle at the end 2023 because this has been elongated a bit, the cycle is going to continue into 2024 to some degree. And that's all dependent on when they stop. And so if they have one more increase at the next meeting, it will be sooner, if they keep going another increase after that, it will be later. So those are probably the biggest individual drivers.

關於我們對 2024 年 Beta 版的看法，我們確實需要了解美聯儲的想法。現在，如果他們再增加一次，並暫時擱置。在測試版不再出現之前，你可能還有幾個季度的時間。所以我們最初要求在 2023 年底結束這個週期，因為這個週期已經延長了一點，這個週期將在某種程度上持續到 2024 年。這完全取決於他們何時停止。因此，如果他們在下次會議上再次加息，時間會更早，如果他們在那之後繼續加息，時間會更晚。所以這些可能是最大的個人驅動因素。

You have other things like competition, whether we have to be competitive. And so what our competition does, we have to react to, to some degree. So that's another driver. And then the overall Fed balance sheet. So the Fed is down about $800 billion since the beginning of the year, Fed -- the balance sheet is going to continue to drift down a little bit, which will take liquidity out of the system and put some pressure on there. So there are several things. That's why it's hard to be precise on what the beta is going to be. But I think there should be some expectation that there's a little bit of an increase in 2024, the amount of which we can't tell you precisely, we'll continue to look and search for that and update you as we change our opinion on that.

還有其他事情，比如競爭，我們是否必須具有競爭力。因此，我們的競爭對手所做的事情，我們必須在某種程度上做出反應。那是另一個司機。然後是美聯儲的整體資產負債表。因此，自今年年初以來，美聯儲已經減少了約 8000 億美元，美聯儲——資產負債表將繼續小幅下降，這將導致系統中的流動性流失，並給系統帶來一些壓力。所以有幾件事。這就是為什麼很難準確確定 Beta 版的內容。但我認為應該有一些預期，2024 年會有一點點增長，具體數量我們無法告訴你，我們將繼續尋找和搜索，並在我們改變觀點時向你提供最新信息那。

And then I wanted to ask just a super quick one on sort of the background behind the favorable $25 million adjustment you made to the expected full year service charges number. It sounds like it's simply a better understanding based on the early observations from the rollout of the new -- but would love to hear any incremental color you have there as well, please.

然後我想快速詢問一下您對預期全年服務費數字進行 2500 萬美元有利調整背後的背景。聽起來這只是基於新產品推出的早期觀察得到的更好的理解——但也很想听聽您那裡有任何增量顏色，拜託。

Yes, it actually wasn't that. The driver is because our -- what's embedded in the service charge is also treasury management. And our treasury management group has done a great job this year growing relationships. We're up about 9% of our relationships. And if you look at revenue, our revenue on treasury management is up some 13%. And so we saw that happen in the first part -- the first quarter. We want to see if it continued, it did in the second quarter. And so our service charge from 24-hour grace is about what we -- where we forecasted it. So you add all that together and just on a run rate basis, you can see we were going to be higher than what we had originally guided, and that was the single driver.

是的，實際上不是那樣的。驅動因素是因為我們的服務費中還包含資金管理。我們的財務管理團隊今年在發展關係方面做得非常出色。我們的關係提升了約 9%。如果你看一下收入，我們的資金管理收入增長了約 13%。所以我們在第一部分——第一季度看到了這種情況的發生。我們想看看這種情況是否會持續下去，第二季度就是如此。因此，我們 24 小時寬限期的服務費與我們的預測大致相同。因此，將所有這些加在一起，僅在運行率的基礎上，您可以看到我們將高於我們最初指導的水平，這就是單個驅動程序。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的杰拉德·卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy)。

David, can you share with us -- I know we don't know what the final outcomes will be from the regulatory changes that are on the horizon, possibly we get them next week. But can you share with us how you guys are thinking about how it might impact you in terms of the long-term debt portion of the TLAC as well as the higher risk-weighted asset assumptions possibly for mortgages, which came out, I think, this week. And any other issues that are surrounding this whole regulatory change that's on the horizon.

大衛，你能和我們分享一下嗎——我知道我們不知道即將到來的監管變化的最終結果是什麼，可能我們會在下週得到結果。但是，您能否與我們分享一下，你們如何考慮這可能會對 TLAC 的長期債務部分以及抵押貸款可能產生的較高風險加權資產假設產生影響，我認為，本星期。以及圍繞即將到來的整個監管變革的任何其他問題。

Sure. So let me just give you an overall comment, then I'll break down some of the elements. So overall, Gerard, what we're hearing, what we're seeing, we can -- we'll be able to adapt and overcome whatever it is that we have to. We think the Fed is going to give us all time to adapt to whatever those changes are going to be without any major disruption.

當然。因此，讓我給您一個總體評論，然後我將分解一些要素。總的來說，杰拉德，我們所聽到的、所看到的，我們能夠——我們將能夠適應並克服我們必須要做的一切。我們認為美聯儲將給我們足夠的時間來適應這些變化，而不會造成任何重大干擾。

So specifically on debt, we're hearing potentially a 6% of RWA number for those over $100 million. Maybe there's some tailoring, but let's just use the 6% for easy math. That's an incremental $5 billion of debt for us that we'll have to raise over time. We'll be able to leverage that $5 billion into our business and including putting some of it at the bank that will reduce our deposit insurance premium some. And when you wrap all that together, you're talking about 60 to 70 basis points of all-in cost for us on that $5 billion. So you're talking about $35 million bottom line hit if that were to happen, fully implemented. So it's just not -- it's not something that's pretty easy to overcome. We don't think it's necessary, but we don't get to make the rules. We just have to adapt and overcome.

因此，特別是在債務方面，我們聽說超過 1 億美元的債務可能佔 RWA 的 6%。也許有一些剪裁，但為了簡單數學計算，我們只使用 6%。這對我們來說是 50 億美元的增量債務，隨著時間的推移，我們必須籌集這些債務。我們將能夠將這 50 億美元用於我們的業務，包括將其中一部分存入銀行，這將減少我們的存款保險費。當你把所有這些放在一起時，你會發現我們在這 50 億美元的總成本中增加了 60 到 70 個基點。所以你說的是，如果完全實施的話，底線將達到 3500 萬美元。所以這不是一件容易克服的事情。我們認為沒有必要，但我們無權制定規則。我們只需要適應和克服。

With regards to the RWA, so we're hearing conflicting things. There's clearly some additional operational risk we're going to have to put into RWAs. We're supposed to get some benefit, though, on the credit side, whether that be from mortgages or investment grade. If all that happens like Basel intended, then it's a push and no big deal.

關於 RWA，我們聽到了相互矛盾的說法。顯然，我們必須將一些額外的操作風險放入 RWA 中。不過，我們應該在信貸方面獲得一些好處，無論是抵押貸款還是投資級別。如果這一切都按照巴塞爾的預期發生，那麼這只是一種推動，沒什麼大不了的。

On the other hand, if we don't get the benefits we're supposed to on the credit risk weights, then that will cost us a little bit of capital. And again, we'll feather that in over time. Outside of Basel, but probably part of the NPR that will be coming out will be AOCI. AOCI is likely to be in the capital regime going forward, which, on a stress basis, actually is helpful because your AOCI is in a gain position. But in a rising rate environment, which is good for banking because that's where we make most of our money.

另一方面，如果我們沒有在信用風險權重上獲得應有的收益，那麼我們就會損失一點資本。再說一遍，隨著時間的推移，我們會逐漸完善這一點。在巴塞爾之外，但即將發布的 NPR 的一部分可能是 AOCI。 AOCI 未來可能會處於資本製度中，這在壓力的基礎上實際上是有幫助的，因為您的 AOCI 處於盈利狀態。但在利率上升的環境下，這對銀行業有利，因為這是我們賺大部分錢的地方。

From a capital standpoint, you'll have to feather that AOCI in over time. Again, they're talking about starting maybe in 2025 or 2026 and then giving you 3 to 5 years to do that. And again, we can -- we'll be able to handle that. Some of that takes care of itself just because of the maturities of the investment portfolio. And so -- and then rates coming down the other way. So again, the bottom line is where I started, whatever it is, we'll adapt and overcome.

從資本的角度來看，隨著時間的推移，您必須不斷完善 AOCI。他們再次討論可能從 2025 年或 2026 年開始，然後給你 3 到 5 年的時間來做到這一點。再說一次，我們可以——我們將能夠處理這個問題。其中一些問題會因為投資組合的成熟度而自行解決。所以——然後利率就會以相反的方式下降。再說一次，底線是我開始的地方，無論是什麼，我們都會適應並克服。

Very good. And then I think you guys mentioned that you sold a couple of operation centers or you're in agreement to sell a couple of operation centers. I didn't hear, are you going to vacate them as well? Or is it just more of a sales leaseback situation? And then second, the price you received for them, how does that compare to what they may have been valued a couple of years ago at...

非常好。然後我想你們提到你們出售了幾個運營中心或者同意出售幾個運營中心。我沒聽說，你也要把他們騰出來嗎？或者這更像是一種售後回租的情況？其次，你收到的價格與幾年前的估價相比如何……

Yes. So the first part is we will lease one of the buildings back some of the square footage for a relatively short period of time to help us transition. But for the most part, we're going to be vacating both of those buildings. I mean the world has changed since we built all of that. And so we just don't need the space. And of course, working remotely has been a piece of that, too. So we think it's a good deal, not only for our customer base, but for our community because what's going there, we think, will be very helpful to the community. We're going to be able to get out of -- sell that. It will be [right at] book value to a slight gain on the sale, not anything to write home about, but we'll make a little bit of money on that.

是的。因此，第一部分是我們將在相對較短的時間內租回其中一棟建築物的部分面積，以幫助我們過渡。但在大多數情況下，我們將騰出這兩座建築。我的意思是，自從我們建造了這一切以來，世界已經發生了變化。所以我們不需要這個空間。當然，遠程工作也是其中的一部分。因此，我們認為這不僅對我們的客戶群而且對我們的社區來說都是一筆好交易，因為我們認為那裡發生的事情將對社區非常有幫助。我們將能夠擺脫——賣掉它。出售時，它的賬面價值將略有增長，沒什麼值得大書特書的，但我們會從中賺到一點錢。

And David, was the values lower than what you think if you would have sold those 2 or 3 years ago? Just to tie into the whole commercial real estate lower values that we're hearing about.

大衛，如果您在兩三年前出售這些產品，其價值是否會低於您的想像？只是為了將我們所聽到的整個商業房地產的較低價值聯繫起來。

Yes. Gerard, it's John. I'm not sure it's a relevant question. We're selling to the taxing authority that -- so we're selling to the city that we occupied and our tax valuation was unchanged over the 3-year period. And so it's based on tax valuation. So I'm not sure that we can give you a good answer to your question.

是的。杰拉德，是約翰。我不確定這是一個相關的問題。我們正在向稅務機關出售——所以我們正在向我們佔領的城市出售，並且我們的稅收估值在三年內沒有變化。所以它是基於稅收估價的。所以我不確定我們能否給你一個很好的答案。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 的對話。

David, just wondering your expectations for deposits to go down a little bit towards the end of the year, and you mentioned the additions of some of those brokered CDs. I'm just wondering what you think of the trajectory for average earning assets from here, if the [right side] is kind of coming down a little bit in loan growth, you've kind of given your clear view of that and just wondering how that fits in with the securities and cash in between in terms of what AAA does.

大衛，只是想知道您對年底存款會略有下降的預期，您提到了一些經紀 CD 的增加。我只是想知道你對這裡的平均收益資產的軌蹟有何看法，如果[右側]貸款增長略有下降，你已經對此給出了清晰的看法，只是想知道就 AAA 的業務而言，這如何與介於兩者之間的證券和現金相適應。

Yes. I think you'll see a modest decline there, Ken. I think the deposit decline normalization. Remember, we had a lot of surge deposits. We've been calling for run off a bit. We were pretty close to our number through the second quarter. Rates are higher or longer. I think that's going to have some switching costs associated with it. There's going to be some off-balance sheet movement as well. We think our noninterest-bearing drifts down to that mid-30s, which is what we've been calling for. I think today, we're at about 37%.

是的。我認為你會看到那裡的適度下降，肯。我認為存款下降正常化。請記住，我們有大量的激增存款。我們一直在呼籲逃跑。第二季度我們的數字非常接近。費率更高或更長。我認為這會產生一些與之相關的轉換成本。也會有一些資產負債表外的變動。我們認為我們的無息利率會下降到 30 多歲，這正是我們一直呼籲的。我認為今天我們的比例約為 37%。

So as a result of that decline, you should expect average earning assets to decline along with that. When we talk about modestly, we're talking 1% to 2%, frankly. And -- but we'll see. We're continuing to grow checking accounts. The core of our franchise are checking accounts and operating accounts, and we are all over trying to grow that and take advantage of the markets that we're in, which is very favorable as we see the migration of people and businesses into our markets. So we think this is some more normalization and then we think it kind of settles out after that modest decline.

因此，由於這種下降，你應該預計平均收益資產也會隨之下降。當我們謙虛地談論時，坦率地說，我們談論的是 1% 到 2%。而且——但我們拭目以待。我們正在繼續增加支票賬戶。我們特許經營的核心是支票賬戶和經營賬戶，我們正在努力發展這一業務並利用我們所在的市場，這非常有利，因為我們看到人員和企業遷移到我們的市場。因此，我們認為這是一種更加正常化的情況，然後我們認為在小幅下降之後，這種情況就會穩定下來。

Great. Okay. Got it. And just on the loan side, I was just wondering, resi mortgage and EnerBank have been the biggest parts of your loan growth for a while now. Just wondering, is that continue to be your expectation of where you'll get the majority of growth? And within that, I guess, if you can just give us an update on how EnerBank has been doing relative to your expectations.

偉大的。好的。知道了。就貸款方面而言，我只是想知道，Resi 抵押貸款和 EnerBank 一段時間以來一直是貸款增長的最大部分。只是想知道，這是否仍然是您對獲得大部分增長的期望？在這之中，我想，如果您能給我們介紹一下 EnerBank 相對於您的期望的最新表現。

Sure. So our growth has really driven thus far in total from the commercial side. That is going to slow a bit. We can just -- as we talk to customers, we could see the demand for credit isn't quite what it was. Obviously, there are transactions that are harder to get done in real estate because we are based on the -- where rates are, we're requiring more equity in the deal and developers don't want to do that. So things don't happen. There's still a big demand for housing, our resi portfolio will continue to grow some. We have a good group of MLOs that are out there. The housing supply is still way below where it should be. Now rates are up. And so that's going to mute things.

當然。因此，到目前為止，我們的增長確實是從商業方面推動的。這會慢一點。當我們與客戶交談時，我們可以看到對信貸的需求並不完全是原來的樣子。顯然，在房地產領域，有些交易更難完成，因為我們的基礎是——在利率水平的情況下，我們要求交易中有更多的股權，而開發商不想這樣做。所以事情不會發生。住房需求仍然很大，我們的房地產投資組合將繼續增長。我們有一群優秀的 MLO。住房供應仍遠低於應有水平。現在利率上漲了。所以這會讓事情變得沉默。

From an EnerBank standpoint, we've had pretty good growth. They have met the expectations that we have laid out for them. We'll see some slowing a bit in the second half and into 2024. We had a pretty big solar program going at one time. The math on that got to a point where it was not as profitable as we had originally hoped for. And so we are not going to change -- chase loan growth until -- unless we can get paid appropriately for the risk that we take. As a result, that's going to slow a bit and EnerBank. That being said, we're very happy with what they're doing and you're going to see growth just not at the pace that we have had.

從 EnerBank 的角度來看，我們取得了相當不錯的增長。他們達到了我們為他們設定的期望。從下半年到 2024 年，我們會看到一些放緩。我們曾經有一個相當大的太陽能計劃正在進行。算起來，它的利潤並不像我們最初希望的那樣。因此，我們不會改變——追逐貸款增長，直到——除非我們能夠為我們所承擔的風險獲得適當的報酬。結果，EnerBank 的速度會慢一些。話雖這麼說，我們對他們所做的事情非常滿意，而且你會看到增長速度不及我們的速度。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

On your NII guide, I was just wondering about the timing of the rate hike you're factoring in there. It sounded like you're assuming July. I just wanted to confirm that. And then on your deposit comments, that you're factoring in that decline further on the DDA side and just overall, was just wondering what the rough average cost is of that incremental deposits that you're bringing in to replace some of that DDA? What's your assumption there? Is it 5%, 5.5%? Or is it closer to maybe some of your lower core accounts?

在你的國家信息基礎設施指南上，我只是想知道你考慮的加息時間。聽起來你假設的是七月。我只是想確認這一點。然後，關於您的存款評論，您正在考慮 DDA 方面的進一步下降，總體而言，只是想知道您為取代部分 DDA 而引入的增量存款的粗略平均成本是多少？你的假設是什麼？是5%、5.5%嗎？或者它是否更接近您的一些較低核心帳戶？

Yes, it's right at 5%. And you're correct, we did factor in the increase -- rate increase in July.

是的，5%是正確的。你是對的，我們確實考慮了七月份的加息。

Okay. Great. Maybe on capital, the plan to manage CET1 at or slightly above 10%. Given you're there now, I just wanted to get your thoughts on the chances of your restarting the buyback once you get more clarity on the capital requirements next week? Or do you think there's maybe a better possibility that you restart that in 4Q?

好的。偉大的。也許在資本方面，計劃將CET1管理在10%或略高於10%。鑑於您現在在那裡，我只是想了解一下您對下週資本要求更加明確後重新啟動回購的可能性有何想法​​？或者您認為在第四季度重新啟動的可能性更大嗎？

It's probably more likely a 4Q. We keep thinking we're going to get clarification. We thought June 30 has been pushed out. So we don't know exactly when we're going to get it. But whatever we do, we'll shift through the material and we'll come up with an appropriate plan. Until we know that plan, it just doesn't make any sense. I mean we had, I think, the highest return this quarter on tangible common equity. There's just no need for us to push on the -- to push on share buyback right now. Let's just be a little bit cautious and deal with the rules. And then after that, if buying our shares back is appropriate, then that's what we'll do.

更有可能是4Q。我們一直認為我們會得到澄清。我們以為 6 月 30 日已經被推遲了。所以我們不知道什麼時候能得到它。但無論我們做什麼，我們都會仔細研究材料並提出適當的計劃。在我們了解該計劃之前，它沒有任何意義。我的意思是，我認為本季度我們的有形普通股回報率最高。我們現在沒有必要推動股票回購。讓我們謹慎一點並遵守規則。然後，如果回購我們的股票是合適的，那麼我們就會這麼做。

Okay. And maybe one, last one on credit. Just wanted to get your thoughts on your office reserve ratio at this point. I know you don't know what's in the other office books out there, some of these other banks, but we're just seeing some reserve ratios that are a little bit more elevated at some of the larger banks. And I know you mentioned you don't expect any losses in that book. I was just hoping you could just talk a little bit more about what's giving you comfort with that the 2 handle that you've got on there right now on the reserve ratio.

好的。也許還有一張，最後一張是賒賬的。此時只想了解您對辦公室準備金率的想法。我知道你不知道其他一些銀行的辦公室賬簿上有什麼，但我們只是看到一些較大銀行的準備金率略高一些。我知道你提到你不認為那本書會造成任何損失。我只是希望你能多談談是什麼讓你對你現在在準備金率上的 2 個手柄感到滿意。

Sure, yes. This is John. I'll answer that. So our office portfolio is about $1.7 billion, roughly 36% of that portfolio is single tenant. And of that single tenant exposure, 82% is investment grade. So we sort of look at that $700 million and feel like we understand that. It's well secured, it's performing. So then we look at the $1 billion portfolio that remains that's multi-tenant, 63% of that is in the Sunbelt. Beyond that, it is well diversified geographically. Largest concentration we have is in the Dallas-Fort Worth market, where about 20% of the portfolio, our exposure actually resides.

當然，是的。這是約翰。我會回答這個問題。因此，我們的辦公樓投資組合約為 17 億美元，其中大約 36% 是單一租戶。在單一租戶風險中，82% 為投資級。所以我們看到這 7 億美元，感覺我們理解了這一點。它的安全性很好，而且性能良好。那麼我們看看剩下的 10 億美元的多租戶投資組合，其中 63% 位於陽光地帶。除此之外，它在地理上也很多元化。我們最集中的市場是達拉斯-沃斯堡市場，我們的投資組合中約 20% 的投資實際位於該市場。

There are about 100 credits make up that $1 billion. So we have very good visibility into the relationships and to the performance of those particular credits. When I think about how we're doing, we've been talking to customers well in advance of maturities, and we have a fair number of maturities in 2023 and 2024. Performance to date has been good. We've had 13 credits that have matured already this year and over half of those or half of those credits had an extension option, which they were able to exercise. Another 20-plus percent renewed based on our current credit underwriting standards and the balance either paid off.

這 10 億美元大約有 100 個積分。因此，我們對這些特定信用的關係和表現有非常好的了解。當我思考我們的表現時，我們一直在提前與客戶討論到期日，並且我們在 2023 年和 2024 年有相當多的到期日。迄今為止的表現一直很好。我們有 13 個學分今年已經到期，其中超過一半或一半的學分有延期選項，他們能夠行使這一選項。根據我們當前的信用承保標準，還有 20% 以上的續簽，餘額要么得到了償還。

We have one credit that we're still working on. That's the one nonaccrual that we have in the portfolio. And so all in all, our assessment of our portfolio, our office portfolio is pretty good. We have said we don't think we have any significant losses in the portfolio, and that's been confirmed by, again, conversations we're having with customers, our visibility into what's occurred to date and what we think will occur over the next 12 to 18 months.

我們仍在努力爭取一項榮譽。這是我們投資組合中的一項非應計利息。總而言之，我們對我們的投資組合、辦公室投資組合的評估非常好。我們說過，我們認為我們的投資組合不會出現任何重大損失，這一點再次得到了我們與客戶的對話、我們對迄今為止發生的情況以及我們認為未來 12 年將發生的情況的了解的證實。至 18 個月。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Can you guys just remind us where you are on the system (inaudible) on the loan and deposit platforms and what the benefits are once that's done?

你們能提醒我們你們在貸款和存款平台上的系統（聽不清）中的位置以及完成後有什麼好處嗎？

Yes. So we are in the formative stage of putting in our new systems focusing on the deposit system. It will be the biggest and all of them are important to us, but that was really important to us. We are planning right now, we're laying the foundation. We are spending some money. We've been spending money for quite some time. But you're not going to see benefits for a number of years, Matt. We've got to go through. And we've learned from talking to others that have gone through these type journeys is, it is much better to take your time and be planful. It will reduce -- ultimately it will reduce overall cost.

是的。因此，我們正處於建立以存款系統為重點的新系統的形成階段。這將是最大的，所有這些對我們都很重要，但這對我們來說真的很重要。我們現在正在計劃，我們正在打基礎。我們正在花一些錢。我們已經花了相當長一段時間的錢了。但馬特，你在很多年內都不會看到好處。我們必須經歷。通過與經歷過此類旅程的其他人交談，我們了解到，最好慢慢來並做好計劃。它將減少——最終將降低總體成本。

So we're going through a number of customer journeys and really thinking through not just putting in a new system, but how can we really transform, how we do business and how can we make it easier for our customers to bank with us, how we can make it easier for our associates to take care of our customers. And so it's a lot of work. And so you're going to see cost upfront which is what we're experiencing today before you'll see the benefits, it will be a few years out.

因此，我們正在經歷許多客戶旅程，真正思考的不僅僅是安裝一個新系統，而是我們如何才能真正轉型，我們如何開展業務，以及如何讓我們的客戶更輕鬆地通過我們進行銀行業務，如何我們可以讓我們的員工更輕鬆地照顧我們的客戶。所以這需要大量的工作。因此，您將預先看到成本，這就是我們今天所經歷的，然後您才能看到好處，這將是幾年後的事。

And remind us of the time line, I think it was back in 2019, you first started talking about it, I thought you said it might be 5 or 6 years, but update us on the time line, please?

並提醒我們時間線，我想是在 2019 年，你第一次開始談論它，我以為你說可能是 5 或 6 年，但請更新我們的時間線，好嗎？

That's right. It's going to be another 5 years from now before you see this. So we have a deposit system, we'll be putting in a new commercial loan system, and we'll be putting in a consumer loan system as well. But the biggest one and the most expensive one will be the deposit system. But that's at least 3 years out before that gets put in.

這是正確的。距離現在你還需要五年才能看到這一點。因此，我們有一個存款系統，我們將建立一個新的商業貸款系統，我們還將建立一個消費貸款系統。但最大、最昂貴的系統將是存款系統。但距離實施至少還需要3年時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian)。

Quick question. Question is clarifying sort of the statements on NII, David. So based on your guidance, the fourth quarter 2023 net interest income quote exit rate will be somewhere between $1.31 billion and $1.32 billion. Sort of based on what you're telling us, should we expect perhaps a step down in the first quarter due to day count. And like you said, the continuation of beta creep, but then would there be stability from there or an opportunity for reprice if the Fed cuts? I'm trying to just triangulate your comments on NIM, which are very helpful to the NII quarterly cadence.

快問。大衛，問題是澄清 NII 上的陳述。因此，根據您的指導，2023 年第四季度淨利息收入報價退出率將在 13.1 億美元至 13.2 億美元之間。根據您告訴我們的內容，我們是否應該預期第一季度由於天數計算而有所下降。正如您所說，貝塔係數持續攀升，但如果美聯儲降息，是否會出現穩定或重新定價的機會？我試圖對您對 NIM 的評論進行三角測量，這對 NII 季度節奏非常有幫助。

Yes. So I won't confirm your number exactly, but your thinking is spot on that as we get to the end of the year, we start stabilizing a bit. The question is, where does the Fed stop. If they go one more time and stop then you're -- then the only thing you really have leading into the first quarter will be slight beta risk and the day count that you talked about. So I think you have stability from there on.

是的。所以我不會確切地確認你的數字，但你的想法是正確的，隨著我們到年底，我們開始穩定一點。問題是，美聯儲在哪裡止步？如果他們再去一次然後停下來，那麼你進入第一季度真正擁有的唯一東西將是輕微的貝塔風險和你談到的天數。所以我認為從那時起你就會變得穩定。

However, if the Fed continues to push this out even more and has to go 2, 3 -- 2 more hikes, 3 more hikes and you just push everything out. We do have hedges that are becoming live this quarter. You can see that on our Page 6 in our deck. And so we put those on over a year ago with anticipation that there was risk that rates actually roll over and start going down, they didn't. And so we'll be in a bit of a negative carry on those, which is okay because the rest of our book is earning a whole lot more money than we thought at that time. So that's all been factored in to the guidance that we gave you. And we're -- right now, we're expecting that we get to the end of the year and things really start to settle out with the exception of minor tweaks in that first quarter.

然而，如果美聯儲繼續加大力度，不得不加息 2 次、3 次——2 次、3 次，那麼你就只能把一切都推遲了。我們確實有本季度即將啟用的對沖。您可以在我們的套牌第 6 頁上看到這一點。因此，我們在一年前就開始實施這些政策，並預期利率實際上存在滾動並開始下降的風險，但事實並非如此。因此，我們會對這些內容產生一些負面影響，這沒關係，因為我們書的其餘部分賺的錢比我們當時想像的要多得多。因此，這一切都已納入我們為您提供的指導中。現在，我們預計到今年年底，除了第一季度的細微調整之外，一切都會真正開始解決。

Got it. And could you remind us sort of how much in total is the check fraud as you have in your expense base for 2023. And as we think about your natural (technical difficulty) run rate?

知道了。您能否提醒我們，您 2023 年的支出基礎中支票欺詐的總數是多少？當我們考慮您的自然（技術難度）運行率時？

Yes. So we have a schedule in our supplement on it. Let me flip and see if I can find it real quick for you because we were anticipating this question. We wanted to give everybody an understanding. It's on Page 15 of the supplement. And it's embedded in the operational loss number, and that change related to check fraud, was about $80 million, as we mentioned in the call. But you can see our operational losses had averaged about $13 million to $18 million per quarter, and we are back to that kind of run rate now. And so we expect to be there about that number going forward.

是的。所以我們在增刊中有一個時間表。讓我翻轉一下，看看是否可以快速為您找到它，因為我們期待著這個問題。我們想讓每個人都理解。它位於增刊第 15 頁。正如我們在電話中提到的，它包含在運營損失數字中，與支票欺詐相關的變化約為 8000 萬美元。但你可以看到我們的運營損失平均每季度約為 1300 萬至 1800 萬美元，而我們現在又回到了這種運行率。因此，我們預計未來會達到這個數字。

Got it. And if I could just squeeze one more in, and this is for John. We're sitting here now July 21, 2023, and your firm is in a position of great strength. I'm wondering -- and I'm asking about organic opportunities. I don't think I'm wrapping an M&A question around this. But as you think about [as you] go on more stringent RWA diet -- than you -- given where your capital is today, how are you thinking about playing offense as we think through all the changes. How do you leverage that deposit base that will stay inexpensive and the capital that seems to be building nicely in the credit that seems relatively stable.

知道了。如果我能再塞進去一顆的話，這是給約翰的。 2023 年 7 月 21 日，我們正坐在這裡，貴公司處於強大的優勢地位。我想知道——我問的是有機機會。我不認為我是在圍繞這個問題來討論併購問題。但是，當你考慮[當你]繼續比你更嚴格的 RWA 飲食時，考慮到你今天的首都在哪裡，當我們考慮所有的變化時，你如何考慮進攻。如何利用保持廉價的存款基礎和似乎在相對穩定的信貸中良好建立的資本。

Erika, we're continuing to add talent. So we're continuing to hire talent. We're in some very good markets. We have acquired a number of capabilities over the last number of years. And so it's really combining talent with opportunity in markets with additional capabilities, just to execute our plan. We're asking our bankers to be active in markets, talking to customers and noncustomers looking for ways to expand our business while there's still some economic uncertainty, and we want to be prudent and careful. We start with soundness first, followed by profitability and then growth. We think we are in a position, as you pointed out to win market share, where opportunities exist and we're focused on those prospects that we've been calling on for a long time and relationships that we've had for a long time to ensure that we use the capital and the resources we have to support those companies as they want to grow their businesses.

埃里卡，我們正在繼續增加人才。因此，我們將繼續聘用人才。我們處於一些非常好的市場。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經獲得了許多能力。因此，它實際上是將人才與市場機會和附加功能結合起來，只是為了執行我們的計劃。我們要求我們的銀行家積極參與市場，與客戶和非客戶交談，尋找擴大我們業務的方法，同時仍然存在一些經濟不確定性，我們希望保持謹慎和謹慎。我們首先從穩健性開始，然後是盈利能力，最後是增長。正如您所指出的，我們認為我們處於贏得市場份額的位置，機會存在，我們專注於我們長期以來一直呼籲的前景和我們長期以來建立的關係確保我們利用我們擁有的資本和資源來支持這些公司發展業務。

Yes, Erika, this is David. Let me add to that. So we do realize there could be opportunities for us to grow loans faster than what we just gave you the guidance on. So we gave a guidance of 3% to 4%. We produced that slightly because of the demand that I had talked about earlier. We want to grow relationships. We aren't interested in taking advantage of somebody's RWA diet and growing loans only. We cannot outstrip our funding base because that marginal profitability just won't be there if you're having to wholesale fund that growth. So if we can get a relationship that brings an operating account and other deposits, we're all over that. But we're not interested in just growing loans because somebody else wants to shed that risk.

是的，埃里卡，這是大衛。讓我補充一下。因此，我們確實意識到，我們可能有機會比我們剛剛向您提供的指導更快地增加貸款。所以我們給出了3%到4%的指導。由於我之前談到的需求，我們稍微製作了它。我們想要發展關係。我們對利用某人的 RWA 飲食和增加貸款不感興趣。我們不能超出我們的資金基礎，因為如果你必須為這種增長提供批發資金，那麼邊際盈利能力就不會存在。因此，如果我們能夠建立一種能夠帶來運營賬戶和其他存款的關係，我們就可以了。但我們不僅僅對增加貸款感興趣，因為其他人想擺脫這種風險。

Our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Yes, just a ticky-tacky one at this stage. AOCI, pull-to-par, what should we be thinking about with regard to how that's going to pull quarterly over the next 4, 6 quarters?

是的，現階段只是一個棘手的問題。 AOCI，拉至標準桿，我們應該考慮如何在接下來的 4、6 個季度中按季度拉動？

Yes. I think we have a schedule in the back is on our Slide #17 that shows by the end of 2024, about 25% of that will be rolled in. And then by the end of the next year, about 39%. That's using just maturities in the forwards at this time.

是的。我想我們後面的幻燈片 #17 上有一個時間表，顯示到 2024 年底，其中約 25% 將投入使用。然後到明年年底，約 39%。此時僅使用遠期合約的到期日。

Okay. And that's on just the AFS book, obviously, right?

好的。顯然，這只是 AFS 書中的內容，對吧？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And then your strategy for the security portfolio in general. Are you going to be adding to it over time? Or what are you doing with the excess deposit growth that you get?

然後是您的總體安全投資組合策略。隨著時間的推移，你會添加它嗎？或者您如何處理您獲得的超額存款增長？

Yes. So we've historically been 18% to 20% of our earning assets and securities. We suspect we'll be roughly in that range. What we have to think through is what the new regime will be with regards to AOCI. As you're probably aware, the AOCI changes with regards to securities becomes part of your capital, but the fair market value changes with regards to derivatives is not. And so what that does is it causes you to at least think about, if we need the duration protection that we use our securities book for along with liquidity. That perhaps we use more derivatives than securities. And we'll just have to see. But I don't see that changing our securities book appreciably, will it be down a notch or 2 perhaps. But I don't think you would -- you should expect us to grow that book much past that 20% range.

是的。因此，從歷史上看，我們的盈利資產和證券佔 18% 至 20%。我們懷疑我們將大致在這個範圍內。我們需要思考的是新的AOCI制度將會是什麼樣子。您可能知道，證券方面的 AOCI 變化成為您資本的一部分，但衍生品方面的公平市場價值變化則不然。因此，這至少會讓你考慮一下，我們是否需要使用證券賬簿和流動性來提供久期保護。也許我們使用的衍生品比證券更多。我們只需要看看。但我不認為我們的證券賬簿會發生明顯變化，它是否會下降一兩個等級。但我認為您不會——您應該期望我們將這本書的增長遠遠超過 20% 的範圍。

Our final question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore.

我們的最後一個問題來自 John Pancari 和 Evercore 的對話。

Back to the deposit beta. I know you indicated the potential for an increase in 2024 if rates remain elevated. Any way to help us size it up, and does the 35 go to 40, is that most likely if we are in a higher longer environment? Or could it be up there where some of your competitors are flagging in the mid-40s and maybe even up there in the 50s where some of them are at. Just curious if you can help us frame it out.

回到存款測試版。我知道您表示，如果利率保持在高位，2024 年可能會出現增長。有什麼方法可以幫助我們衡量它嗎？如果我們處於更高、更長的環境中，35 到 40 是最有可能的嗎？或者可能是你的一些競爭對手在 40 多歲中期就已經萎靡不振，甚至可能是在 50 多歲的時候，他們中的一些人已經陷入了困境。只是好奇你是否能幫我們解決這個問題。

John, this is Darren Smith. I'll take that one. So I think you're in the right neighborhood. Our expectations would be that if the Fed is indeed done over the next couple of meetings. And then what you're seeing is just that residual beta creep that plays out over a couple of quarters, and then you have very modest increases from there. It obviously depends on how long we're at that level. But I think somewhere in the upper 30s to around 40% is reasonable in terms of how much it may continue to move.

約翰，這是達倫·史密斯。我會接受那個。所以我認為你是在正確的社區。我們的預期是，如果美聯儲在接下來的幾次會議上確實完成了任務。然後你所看到的只是殘留的貝塔蠕變，在幾個季度中持續出現，然後你會看到非常溫和的增長。這顯然取決於我們處於這個水平多久。但我認為，就其可能繼續變動的幅度而言，30% 左右到 40% 左右是合理的。

Got it, Darren. That's helpful (inaudible). And then separately, just back to Matt O'Connor's question on the systems conversion. Can you remind us of your expectation around the cost of the conversion? I know you had originally indicated that you don't expect it to impact your IT budget. Is that still the case? Or has it -- has that changed as you have (inaudible) on a vendor, et cetera?

明白了，達倫。這很有幫助（聽不清）。然後分別回到馬特·奧康納關於系統轉換的問題。您能否提醒我們您對轉換成本的預期？我知道您最初表示您不希望它影響您的 IT 預算。現在還是這樣嗎？或者有沒有——就像你對供應商所做的那樣（聽不清）發生了變化，等等？

Yes. So John, we're still in the formative stage of planning for that. I'll tell you there's a lot of things going on other than this -- the system integration with regards to technology. The environment is changing to Software-as-a-Service versus buying a system and capitalizing it depreciating that over time and skipping several of the upgrades because you don't want to pay for that.

是的。約翰，我們仍處於規劃的形成階段。我會告訴你，除此之外還有很多事情正在發生——技術方面的系統集成。環境正在轉變為軟件即服務，而不是購買系統並將其資本化，隨著時間的推移貶值並跳過幾次升級，因為您不想為此付費。

Today, it's all going in the cloud. It's paying by the drink and that's more expensive. And it's -- so technology cost, it used to be technology costs go down over time. It does not appear to be the case. We're going to do our best to control that while making appropriate investments in technology because I think we can leverage that better than we do today. We use a lot of human capital to do things. I think over time, you're going to see most everybody leveraging technology better. And so I think that right now, we're at 9% to 11% of total revenue. I can see that drifting higher a bit over time. But right now, that's our call of 9% to 11%. And we'll update you as things change.

如今，一切都在雲端進行。這是按飲料付費的，而且更貴。技術成本過去是隨著時間的推移而下降的。事實似乎並非如此。我們將盡最大努力控制這一點，同時對技術進行適當的投資，因為我認為我們可以比今天更好地利用這一點。我們使用大量的人力資本來做事。我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到大多數人更好地利用技術。所以我認為現在我們佔總收入的 9% 到 11%。我可以看到隨著時間的推移，這個數字會逐漸升高。但現在，我們的預測是 9% 到 11%。當情況發生變化時，我們會及時通知您。

And then 9% or 11% is the total IT budget?

那麼 IT 預算總額是 9% 還是 11%？

All technology, yes.

所有技術，是的。

Okay. Well, I think that's all the calls. So I appreciate everybody's participation today. Thank you for your interest in Regions. Have a great weekend.

好的。嗯，我想這就是所有的電話了。所以我感謝大家今天的參與。感謝您對地區的興趣。週末愉快。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。