Regions Financial Corp (RF) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation Quarterly Earnings Call. My name is Christine, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

早上好，歡迎來到地區金融公司季度收益電話會議。我叫克里斯汀，我將擔任今天電話的接線員。 （操作員說明）我現在將把電話轉給 Dana Nolan 開始。

Thank you, Christine. Welcome to Regions Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding the quarter. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP information, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。歡迎來到地區 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 John 和 David 將提供有關本季度的高級評論。收益文件，包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非 GAAP 信息，可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取。這些披露包括我們的演示材料、準備好的評論和問答。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. Let me begin by saying that we're very pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results. Earlier this morning, we reported full year earnings of $2.1 billion reflecting record pretax pre-provision income of $3.1 billion, adjusted positive operating leverage of 7% and industry-leading returns on both average tangible common equity and total shareholder return. Our results speak to and underscore the comprehensive work that's taken place over the past decade to position the company to generate consistent sustainable long-term performance. We have enhanced our credit, interest rate and operational risk management processes and platforms while sharpening our focus on risk-adjusted returns and capital allocation.

謝謝你，達娜，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。首先讓我說，我們對第四季度和全年的業績感到非常滿意。今天上午早些時候，我們公佈了 21 億美元的全年收益，反映了 31 億美元的創紀錄稅前撥備前收入、調整後的 7% 正經營槓桿以及平均有形普通股和股東總回報的行業領先回報。我們的結果說明並強調了過去十年為使公司能夠產生一致的可持續長期績效而進行的全面工作。我們加強了信貸、利率和操作風險管理流程和平台，同時加強了對風險調整後回報和資本配置的關注。

We made investments in markets, technology, talent and capabilities to diversify our revenue base and enhance our offerings to customers. For example, investments in our treasury management products and services led to record revenue this year. Similarly, our Wealth Management segment also generated record revenue despite volatile market conditions. And now we're seeing positive results of our comprehensive strategy. Over the course of the year, we grew revenue and average loans while prudently managing expenses, further illustrating the successful execution of our strategic plan.

我們在市場、技術、人才和能力方面進行了投資，以實現收入基礎多元化並增強我們為客戶提供的服務。例如，對我們資金管理產品和服務的投資導致今年創紀錄的收入。同樣，儘管市場環境動盪，我們的財富管理部門也創造了創紀錄的收入。現在我們看到了我們綜合戰略的積極成果。在這一年中，我們在審慎管理開支的同時增加了收入和平均貸款，進一步說明了我們戰略計劃的成功執行。

So as we enter 2023, it is from a position of strength. Our business customers have strong balance sheets. They have benefited from population migration and many continue to carry more liquidity than in the past. Our consumer customer base remains healthy. Deposit balances remain strong and credit card payments remain elevated. The job market continues to be solid with approximately 2 open jobs available for each unemployed person across the Region's footprint. We have a robust credit risk management framework in a disciplined and dynamic approach to managing concentration risk. Our portfolios are more balanced and diverse than at any point in the past. We have a strong balance sheet that's well positioned to perform an array of economic conditions. We have solid capital and liquidity position to support balance sheet growth and strategic investments. And most importantly, we have a solid strategic plan, an outstanding team and a proven track record of successful execution. So as we look ahead, although there is uncertainty, we feel good about how we're positioned.

因此，當我們進入 2023 年時，它處於強勢地位。我們的商業客戶擁有強大的資產負債表。他們從人口遷移中受益，許多人繼續擁有比過去更多的流動性。我們的消費者客戶群保持健康。存款餘額保持強勁，信用卡支付額保持高位。就業市場繼續保持穩定，該地區足跡內的每個失業人員大約有 2 個空缺職位。我們擁有穩健的信用風險管理框架，採用規範和動態的方法來管理集中風險。我們的投資組合比過去任何時候都更加平衡和多樣化。我們擁有強大的資產負債表，可以很好地應對一系列經濟狀況。我們擁有穩固的資本和流動性狀況來支持資產負債表增長和戰略投資。最重要的是，我們擁有可靠的戰略計劃、優秀的團隊和成功執行的良好記錄。因此，當我們展望未來時，儘管存在不確定性，但我們對自己的定位感到滿意。

Now Dave will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

現在戴夫將提供有關本季度的一些亮點。

Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average loans increased 1% sequentially or 9% year-over-year. Average business loans increased 2% compared to the prior quarter, reflecting high-quality broad-based growth. Average consumer loans declined 1% as growth in mortgage, interbank and credit card was offset by the strategic sale of consumer loans late in the third quarter and continued runoff of exit portfolios.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們從資產負債表開始。平均貸款環比增長 1%，同比增長 9%。與上一季度相比，平均商業貸款增長 2%，反映出高質量的廣泛增長。平均消費貸款下降 1%，因為抵押貸款、同業拆借和信用卡的增長被第三季度末消費貸款的戰略銷售和退出組合的持續縮減所抵消。

Looking forward, we expect 2023 ending loan growth of approximately 4%. From a deposit standpoint, as expected, deposits continued to normalize during the quarter, consistent with a rapidly rising rate environment. Average total consumer balances were modestly lower primarily driven by higher balance customers seeking marginal investment alternatives. Meanwhile, the median consumer balance remains relatively stable, still about 50% above pre-pandemic levels.

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年末貸款增長率約為 4%。從存款的角度來看，正如預期的那樣，本季度存款繼續正常化，與快速上升的利率環境一致。平均總消費者余額略有下降，這主要是由於餘額較高的客戶尋求邊際投資替代方案。與此同時，消費者平衡中值保持相對穩定，仍比大流行前水平高出約 50%。

Normalization was more pronounced than average corporate and commercial deposits, which were down 2% during the quarter. As anticipated, our business clients continue to optimize the level and structure of their liquidity position. We experienced remixing away from noninterest-bearing deposits to other options, both on and off-balance sheet, including those offered through our treasury management platform. Ending deposit balances have declined approximately $7 billion year-over-year, in line with our previously provided 2022 expectations.

正常化比平均公司和商業存款更為明顯，後者在本季度下降了 2%。正如預期的那樣，我們的企業客戶繼續優化其流動性頭寸的水平和結構。我們經歷了從無息存款到資產負債表內外的其他選擇的重新組合，包括通過我們的資金管理平台提供的選擇。期末存款餘額同比下降約 70 億美元，符合我們之前提供的 2022 年預期。

Looking forward, we do anticipate further deposit declines of approximately $3 billion to $5 billion in the first half of 2023, reflecting continued Federal Reserve balance sheet normalization, seasonal trends and late-cycle rate-seeking behavior. We expect to experience stabilization of deposit balances midyear with the potential for modest growth in the second half of the year. Our deliberate approach to managing liquidity allows for deposit normalization and growth in the balance sheet without the need for material wholesale borrowings in the near term.

展望未來，我們確實預計 2023 年上半年存款將進一步減少約 30 億至 50 億美元，這反映了美聯儲資產負債表持續正常化、季節性趨勢和周期後期的利率尋求行為。我們預計年中存款餘額將趨於穩定，並有可能在下半年實現溫和增長。我們精心管理流動性的方法允許存款正常化和資產負債表增長，而無需在短期內大量批發借款。

So let's shift to net interest income and margin. Reflecting our asset-sensitive profile, net interest income grew to a record $1.4 billion this quarter, representing an 11% increase while reported net interest margin increased 46 basis points to 3.99%, its highest level in the last 15 years. While deposit repricing continues to accelerate, the cycle-to-date beta remains low at 14%. Importantly, our guidance for 2023 assumes a 35% full-cycle beta by year-end. There is uncertainty regarding full cycle deposit betas for the industry. However, we remain confident that our deposit composition will provide a meaningful competitive advantage. Growth in net interest income is expected to continue until the Federal Reserve reaches the end of its tightening cycle. Once the Fed pauses, we would expect deposit costs to continue increasing for a couple of more quarters. This equates to 1% to 3% net interest income growth in the first quarter and 13% to 15% growth in 2023, assuming the December 31 forward rate curve.

因此，讓我們轉向淨利息收入和保證金。反映我們對資產敏感的情況，本季度淨利息收入增長至創紀錄的 14 億美元，增長 11%，而報告的淨息差增長 46 個基點至 3.99%，為過去 15 年來的最高水平。雖然存款重新定價繼續加速，但周期至今的貝塔係數仍處於 14% 的低位。重要的是，我們對 2023 年的指導假設到年底時全週期貝塔係數為 35%。該行業的全週期存款貝塔存在不確定性。然而，我們仍然相信我們的存款構成將提供有意義的競爭優勢。預計淨利息收入的增長將持續到美聯儲結束其緊縮週期為止。一旦美聯儲暫停，我們預計存款成本將繼續增加幾個季度。假設 12 月 31 日的遠期利率曲線，這相當於第一季度淨利息收入增長 1% 至 3%，2023 年增長 13% 至 15%。

Earlier in 2022, we added a meaningful amount of hedges focused on protecting 2024 and 2025. The swaps become effective in the latter half of 2023 and 2024 and generally have a term of 3 years. Activity in the fourth quarter focused on extending that protection beyond 2025. We will look for attractive opportunities to continue to expand this protection. We have constructed the balance sheet to support a net interest margin range of 3.6% to 4% over the coming years, even if interest rates move back towards 1%. if rates remain elevated, our reported net interest margin is projected to surpass the high end of the range until deposits fully reprice.

在 2022 年初，我們增加了大量的對沖，重點保護 2024 年和 2025 年。互換在 2023 年下半年和 2024 年生效，一般期限為 3 年。第四季度的活動重點是將這種保護延伸到 2025 年以後。我們將尋找有吸引力的機會來繼續擴大這種保護。我們構建的資產負債表支持未來幾年 3.6% 至 4% 的淨息差範圍，即使利率回升至 1%。如果利率保持高位，我們報告的淨息差預計將超過區間的高端，直到存款完全重新定價。

So let's take a look at fee revenue and expense. Reported noninterest income includes $50 million of insurance proceeds related to a third quarter regulatory settlement. Excluding that, adjusted noninterest income declined 9% from the prior quarter as stability in Wealth Management income and a modest increase in card and ATM fees were offset by declines in other categories, mainly mortgage and capital markets.

那麼讓我們來看看費用收入和費用。報告的非利息收入包括與第三季度監管結算相關的 5000 萬美元保險收益。除此以外，調整後的非利息收入較上一季度下降 9%，原因是財富管理收入的穩定以及銀行卡和 ATM 費用的小幅增長被其他類別（主要是抵押貸款和資本市場）的下降所抵消。

Service charges declined 3% due primarily to 3 fewer days in the fourth quarter versus the third. We expect to offer a grace period feature to cover overdrafts around midyear 2023 and when combined with our previously implemented enhancements, will result in full year service charges of approximately $550 million. Within capital markets, increases in M&A fees were offset by declines in all other categories, including a negative $11 million CVA and DVA adjustment.

服務費下降 3%，主要原因是第四季度比第三季度少了 3 天。我們預計將在 2023 年年中左右提供寬限期功能以涵蓋透支，結合我們之前實施的改進措施，全年服務費將達到約 5.5 億美元。在資本市場，併購費用的增加被所有其他類別的下降所抵消，包括 1100 萬美元的負 CVA 和 DVA 調整。

Despite an increase in servicing income, elevated interest rates and seasonally lower production drove total mortgage income lower during the quarter. With respect to outlook, we expect full year 2023 adjusted total revenue to be up 8% to 10% compared to 2022.

儘管服務收入有所增加，但利率上升和季節性產量下降導致本季度抵押貸款總收入下降。關於前景，我們預計 2023 年全年調整後的總收入將比 2022 年增長 8% 至 10%。

Let's move on to noninterest expense. Reported professional and legal expenses declined significantly driven by charges related to the settlement of a regulatory matter in the third quarter. Excluding this and other adjusted items, adjusted noninterest expenses increased 2% compared to the prior quarter. Salaries and benefits increased 2%, primarily due to an increase in associate head count during the fourth quarter and higher benefits expense.

讓我們繼續討論非利息費用。報告的專業和法律費用在第三季度與解決監管問題相關的費用大幅下降。排除此項目和其他調整後的項目，調整後的非利息支出較上一季度增長 2%。工資和福利增長 2%，主要是由於第四季度員工人數增加以及福利費用增加。

Equipment and software expenses increased 4% reflecting increased technology investments. The fourth quarter level does provide a reasonable quarterly run rate for 2023. We expect full year 2023 adjusted noninterest expenses to be up 4.5% to 5.5%, and we expect to generate positive adjusted operating leverage of approximately 4%. From an asset and quality standpoint, overall credit performance remains broadly stable while experiencing expected normalization. Net charge-offs were 29 basis points in the quarter. Excluding the impact of the third quarter consumer loan sales, adjusted full year net charge-offs were 22 basis points.

設備和軟件費用增加了 4%，反映了技術投資的增加。第四季度水平確實為 2023 年提供了合理的季度運行率。我們預計 2023 年全年調整後的非利息支出將增長 4.5% 至 5.5%，我們預計將產生約 4% 的正調整後經營槓桿。從資產和質量的角度來看，整體信貸表現在經歷預期的正常化的同時大致保持穩定。本季度淨註銷為 29 個基點。排除第三季度消費貸款銷售的影響，調整後的全年淨沖銷為 22 個基點。

Nonperforming loans remained relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and were below pre-pandemic levels. Provision expense was $112 million this quarter, while the allowance for credit loss ratio remained unchanged at 1.63%, the increase to the allowance was due primarily to economic conditions, normalizing credit from historically low levels and loan growth. These increases were partially offset by the elimination of the hurricane-related reserves established last quarter.

不良貸款環比保持相對穩定，低於大流行前的水平。本季度準備金費用為 1.12 億美元，而信貸損失率準備金保持在 1.63% 不變，準備金增加主要是由於經濟狀況、信貸從歷史低位正常化和貸款增長。這些增長被上個季度建立的與颶風相關的儲備金的取消部分抵消。

Just to remind you, we believe our normalized charge-offs based on our current book of business should range from 35 to 45 basis points on an annual basis. However, due to the strength of the consumer and to businesses, we expect our full year 2023 net charge-off ratio to be in the range of 25 to 35 basis points. From a capital standpoint, we ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio at an estimated 9.6%, reflecting solid capital generation through earnings, partially offset by continued loan growth.

提醒您，我們認為，根據我們當前的業務賬簿，我們每年的標準化沖銷應該在 35 到 45 個基點之間。然而，由於消費者和企業的實力，我們預計 2023 年全年淨註銷率將在 25 至 35 個基點之間。從資本的角度來看，我們在本季度結束時的普通股一級比率估計為 9.6%，反映出通過收益產生的穩健資本，部分被持續的貸款增長所抵消。

Given the uncertain economic outlook, we plan to manage capital levels near the upper end of our 9.25% to 9.75% operating range over the near term. So in closing, we delivered strong results in 2022 despite volatile economic conditions. We are in some of the strongest markets in the country, and while we remain vigilant to indicators of potential market contraction, we will continue to be a source of stability to our customers.

鑑於不確定的經濟前景，我們計劃在短期內將資本水平管理在接近 9.25% 至 9.75% 經營範圍的上限。因此，最後，儘管經濟形勢動盪，但我們在 2022 年取得了強勁的業績。我們處於該國一些最強勁的市場，雖然我們對潛在市場收縮的指標保持警惕，但我們將繼續成為客戶穩定的源泉。

Pretax pre-provision income remained strong. Expenses are well controlled. Credit remains broadly stable, and capital and liquidity are solid.

稅前撥備前收入保持強勁。費用控制得很好。信貸總體保持穩定，資本和流動性穩定。

And with that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

然後，我們將轉到電話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

In terms of your deposit beta, regarding that 35% beta assumption by year-end '23, what is your -- maybe help us think about what your assumption is around noninterest-bearing mix as a percentage of total deposits. How do you see that trending through the year? What's underlying that assumption?

就您的存款貝塔而言，關於到 23 年底的 35% 貝塔假設，您的 - 也許可以幫助我們考慮您對無息組合佔總存款百分比的假設。您如何看待這一年的趨勢？該假設的基礎是什麼？

Yes, John, this is David. So what we did, we're at 39% noninterest bearing right now. We've always had more noninterest-bearing than most everybody. It's just the nature of our deposit base. We said we would continue to see deposit runoff this year somewhere in the $3 billion to $5 billion range. And for our guidance, we've taken all of that out of NIB. So you should expect that percentage of NIB to decline somewhat during the year. Now that's just what we put in the guide. We could see some mix changes from that NIB and maybe not, that's the most harsh it could be. So that's why we put it in the guide. So I don't know if there's a follow-up there but...

是的，約翰，這是大衛。所以我們所做的是，我們現在的無息率為 39%。我們總是比大多數人有更多的無息。這只是我們存款基礎的性質。我們說過，今年我們將繼續看到存款流失在 30 億至 50 億美元之間。對於我們的指導，我們已經從 NIB 中刪除了所有這些內容。因此，您應該預計 NIB 的百分比在這一年中會有所下降。現在這正是我們在指南中提出的內容。我們可以從該 NIB 看到一些混音變化，也許沒有，這可能是最苛刻的。這就是我們將其放入指南的原因。所以我不知道那裡是否有後續行動，但是......

Okay. No, that's helpful. And I think to add color on the beta provides some of the additional detail. But just separately, if I could just hop over to credit for my follow-up. Can you give us a little bit of color around what drove the increase in charge-offs in the quarter. It looks like that may have been in C&I, but I want to get a little bit of color around what you're seeing there? Are you seeing any stresses in certain pockets of your loan categories that you're watching that are starting to generate some losses? And then also what drove the 14% increase in the credit card loans?

好的。不，那很有幫助。而且我認為在測試版上添加顏色可以提供一些額外的細節。但只是分開，如果我可以跳到我的後續行動中。你能給我們一些關於推動本季度沖銷增加的因素的顏色嗎？看起來這可能已經出現在 C&I 中，但我想了解一下您在那裡看到的內容？您是否看到您正在觀察的某些貸款類別的壓力開始產生一些損失？然後是什麼推動了信用卡貸款增長 14%？

Yes, John, this is John. So we did see a little uptick in business services charge-offs in the quarter related to a handful of credits. We've identified couple areas or a couple of segments of the portfolio where we see elevated stress at the office, healthcare, consumer discretionary, senior housing and transportation on the small end of trucking in particular. We're seeing elevated levels of -- or elevating levels, I should say, of classified loans, in particular, so to the second part of your question, we are seeing some normalization in the portfolio. Classified loans are increasing toward levels that we would expect to be more "normalized" and the categories in which that -- we're seeing that change are the 5 identified, but there are some odds and ends in the portfolio as well as inflationary impacts and rising rates affect isolated customers.

是的，約翰，這是約翰。因此，我們確實看到本季度與少數信貸相關的商業服務沖銷略有上升。我們已經確定了幾個領域或投資組合的幾個部分，在這些領域中，我們看到辦公室、醫療保健、非必需消費品、高級住房和交通運輸的壓力增加，尤其是小型卡車運輸。我們看到分類貸款的水平有所提高——或者我應該說，尤其是在提高水平，所以對於你問題的第二部分，我們看到了投資組合的一些正常化。分類貸款正朝著我們預期會更加“正常化”的水平增長，而我們看到的變化是確定的 5 個類別，但投資組合中存在一些零碎的東西以及通貨膨脹的影響利率上升會影響孤立的客戶。

In general, we still feel very good about credit quality. And as David said, we're guiding to 25 to 35 basis points of charge-offs in 2023.

總的來說，我們對信用質量仍然感覺很好。正如大衛所說，我們將在 2023 年將沖銷費用控制在 25 到 35 個基點。

And John, I'll add. If you look at Page 19, we tried to help you with the areas that John just mentioned in terms of the higher risk segments. And you can see on that page, the strength of the allowance to cover those increases in the criticized level that we have listed in the supplement, and we don't necessarily have a loss in every one of those that migrated into credit size. But what we do see, we have already embedded in the reserve and it's factored in, as John mentioned, in our guidance of 25 to 35 in charge-offs for 2023.

約翰，我補充一下。如果您查看第 19 頁，我們會嘗試幫助您解決 John 剛才提到的高風險領域。你可以在那個頁面上看到，津貼的強度可以彌補我們在補充中列出的批評水平的增加，而且我們不一定在每一個遷移到信貸規模的人中都有損失。但我們確實看到，我們已經嵌入了儲備，正如約翰提到的那樣，它已被納入我們 2023 年 25 至 35 的沖銷指導中。

Yes, David, I appreciate that. If I could just ask one more on that. On the reserve, you pretty much kept it stable this quarter. Could you maybe discuss the likelihood of incremental builds here? Or do you think it fairly represents the scenarios of outlook that you're looking at there?

是的，大衛，我很感激。如果我可以再問一個。在儲備方面，本季度你幾乎保持穩定。您能否在這裡討論增量構建的可能性？還是您認為它公平地代表了您在那裡看到的前景情景？

Well, we certainly believe that it represents what we think is the loss content that exists today. Obviously, every quarter, we have to reassess the economy, the quality of the portfolio at those times. So we think we have it covered. The only bill that you would see from this standpoint that we know of would be related to new loan growth. And we're going to have some of that. We said we would grow loans about 4% in the end during the year. So we'll need to provide for that. But we think at 1.63% is a good coverage ratio for the risk that we have in the portfolio.

好吧，我們當然相信它代表了我們認為是今天存在的損失內容。顯然，每個季度，我們都必須重新評估當時的經濟和投資組合的質量。所以我們認為我們已經涵蓋了它。從這個角度來看，我們所知道的唯一法案將與新貸款增長有關。我們將擁有其中的一些。我們說我們將在年底增加約 4% 的貸款。所以我們需要為此提供。但我們認為 1.63% 是我們投資組合風險的良好覆蓋率。

Based on our current economic assumptions.

基於我們目前的經濟假設。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

I just want to follow up on the funding side of the balance sheet. Can you talk a little bit about -- you guys have had the ability to just keep your loan-to-deposit ratio in a good spot. And I'm just wondering if you could kind of help us understand what you expect to do over time in terms of your wholesale debt footprint, including long-term debt? And what that would imply then for what you expect to do with the securities book over time as well?

我只想跟進資產負債表的資金方面。你能談談嗎——你們有能力將貸存比保持在一個好的位置。我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解你希望隨著時間的推移在你的批發債務足跡方面做些什麼，包括長期債務？那麼，隨著時間的推移，這對您期望對證券賬簿做什麼也意味著什麼？

Yes. So we continue to have one of the lowest loan deposit ratios. I think you were leading to that. We're in great markets. We continue to work on growing accounts, whether it be checking accounts or operating accounts. That's the hallmark of our whole franchise. This is the strength of that deposit base. So we will continue to leverage that deposit base in terms of our funding mix, at least for the first half of the year, we don't see the need to go into any wholesale borrowings. We have plenty of access to that should we need it.

是的。因此，我們繼續擁有最低的貸款存款比率之一。我認為你導致了那個。我們在偉大的市場。我們繼續致力於增加賬戶，無論是支票賬戶還是運營賬戶。這是我們整個特許經營權的標誌。這就是該存款基礎的優勢。因此，我們將繼續在我們的資金組合方面利用存款基礎，至少在今年上半年，我們認為沒有必要進行任何批發借款。如果我們需要它，我們有足夠的訪問權限。

Most of our peers, I think, have all tapped wholesale funding already. So we're being able to leverage that, and that's where we give you the pretty strong guide in terms of our NII growth for the year of 13% to 15%. So we'll see what the deposit flows are as we mentioned to John earlier, the deposit outflows we see that we put in our guide is $3 billion to $5 billion.

我認為，我們的大多數同行都已經利用了批發融資。因此，我們能夠利用這一點，這就是我們在今年的 NII 增長 13% 至 15% 方面為您提供相當有力的指導。所以我們會看到我們之前向約翰提到的存款流量是多少，我們看到我們在指南中提到的存款流出是 30 億到 50 億美元。

Now remember, we said $5 billion to $10 billion this past year, we were at $7 billion. So we've been estimating it pretty well, and we're taking to offer our guide all of that out of NIB. So we'll see what happens during the year, but you don't expect us to be looking for wholesale funding until at least the second half of the year.

現在請記住，我們說去年是 50 億到 100 億美元，我們是 70 億美元。所以我們一直在很好地估計它，並且我們正在考慮從 NIB 中提供所有這些指南。所以我們會看看這一年會發生什麼，但你不會期望我們至少在下半年之前尋求批發資金。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. You're going to do that grace period, and we saw you reiterate the $550 million of service charges. Can you just kind of just give us give an update on the state of the consumer there and behavioral changes and any other learnings and findings that kind of continue to make you confident in upholding that $550 million zone of service charges.

好的。然後只是跟進。你將在那個寬限期內完成，我們看到你重申了 5.5 億美元的服務費。你能不能給我們介紹一下那裡消費者的狀態、行為變化以及任何其他學習和發現，這些知識和發現繼續讓你有信心維持 5.5 億美元的服務區收費。

Yes. Well, can we continue to see consumers maintaining good deposit balance levels, spending is up modestly, but we think being managed very carefully by our consumer-customer base. We feel good about the health of the consumer overall. With respect to overdrafts and the changes that we've made to benefit customers, we've seen about a 20% decline in the number of customers who are overdrawing their accounts on a month-to-month basis, which we are happy about. That's -- ultimately, the objective is to help customers better manage their finances. And so I would say, all in all, we feel good about our guide and good about the impact of the changes that we've made have had on our consumer customer base.

是的。那麼，我們能否繼續看到消費者保持良好的存款餘額水平，支出溫和增長，但我們認為我們的消費者客戶群非常謹慎地管理。我們對消費者的整體健康狀況感到滿意。關於透支和我們為使客戶受益所做的更改，我們看到每月透支賬戶的客戶數量下降了約 20%，我們對此感到高興。那就是 - 最終，目標是幫助客戶更好地管理他們的財務。所以我想說，總而言之，我們對我們的指南感到滿意，並且對我們所做的更改對我們的消費者客戶群產生的影響感到滿意。

Yes, Ken, let me add to that. Embedded in the service charges is Treasury Management and Treasury Management has had a fantastic year. If you look at the fourth quarter for Treasury Management, we were up 7% fourth quarter of '22 to fourth quarter '21. If you look at the entire year, we were up 9% in TM. So that's been a positive to us, that's helped bolster that downward trend of service charges due to all the account changes that we've made and will be a strength for us going into 2023 and gives us confidence, as John mentioned, that we can meet the $550 million in service charges for the year.

是的，肯，讓我補充一點。包含在服務費中的是財務管理，而財務管理今年表現出色。如果你看一下 Treasury Management 的第四季度，我們從 22 年第四季度到 21 年第四季度增長了 7%。如果你看一下全年，我們的 TM 上漲了 9%。所以這對我們來說是積極的，這有助於加強服務費的下降趨勢，這是由於我們所做的所有帳戶更改，並將成為我們進入 2023 年的力量，並讓我們有信心，正如約翰提到的那樣，我們可以支付當年 5.5 億美元的服務費。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

Just a big picture, a strategic question. Obviously, you've done an amazing job growing the interest income and getting the rate call right. It seems like 3 for 3 here. But I guess the flip side is the kind of revenue mix has become more dependent on rates and the balance sheet, right, as we think about the fee composition. So long story short, the question is what strategic opportunities do you have to grow the fee revenues and maybe something that's more from an acquisition point of view to accelerate that.

只是一個大局，一個戰略問題。顯然，你在增加利息收入和正確定價方面做得非常出色。這裡好像是3對3。但我想不利的一面是，當我們考慮費用構成時，收入組合變得更加依賴於利率和資產負債表。長話短說，問題是你有什麼戰略機會來增加費用收入，也許更多的是從收購的角度來加速這一點。

Well, we've been, as you know, active making nonbank acquisitions, particularly adding to our capital markets capabilities. And we're pleased with -- despite the fact that we had a bit of a soft quarter in the fourth quarter, really pleased with the contribution that those capital markets investments are making to help us continue to strengthen relationships with customers and grow noninterest revenues up pretty dramatically over the last 6 or 7 years. Likewise, we are excited about the investments we've made on the consumer side whether it be the acquisition of Ascentium Capital, which is part of our Corporate Banking group; interbank, which gives us a chance to grow loans to homeowners, mortgage servicing rights that we've acquired, which have been helpful. And then in the Wealth space, we've made some acquisitions that have been modestly incremental helpful to us, and we continue to look for opportunities there as well. So we are, I think, positioning ourselves as we continue to accrete capital to making additional investments as we see those opportunities arise.

好吧，正如你所知，我們一直在積極進行非銀行收購，特別是增加我們的資本市場能力。我們很高興——儘管我們在第四季度的表現有些疲軟，但我們對這些資本市場投資為幫助我們繼續加強與客戶的關係和增加非利息收入所做的貢獻感到非常高興在過去的 6 或 7 年里大幅增長。同樣，我們對我們在消費者方面所做的投資感到興奮，無論是收購 Ascentium Capital，它是我們企業銀行集團的一部分；銀行同業拆借，這讓我們有機會增加對房主的貸款，我們已經獲得的抵押貸款服務權，這很有幫助。然後在財富領域，我們進行了一些對我們有適度增量幫助的收購，我們也繼續在那裡尋找機會。因此，我認為，當我們看到這些機會出現時，我們將繼續積累資本以進行額外投資。

We're consistently looking and I think you can look for us to continue to try to build on the investments that we've already made.

我們一直在尋找，我認為您可以尋找我們繼續嘗試在我們已經進行的投資的基礎上繼續努力。

Yes. Matt, let me add that. So the fact that we've been able to grow NII is actually a positive thing. We recognize it does lower the percentage of noninterest revenue as a total. But we're very proud of the fact that we've been able to manage our balance sheet in this manner. More importantly, we're trying to take the volatility out of that line item. And so if you look at our ability to hedge, we're locking in what we believe to be a very strong margin range of 3.60% to 3.90% over time, regardless of what the rate environment does. And so that gives us a lot of stability there. And if that means we have higher NII and the percentage of NIR is a bit lower than it historically have been, we're okay with that.

是的。馬特，讓我補充一下。因此，我們能夠發展 NII 實際上是一件積極的事情。我們認識到它確實降低了非利息收入佔總收入的百分比。但我們為能夠以這種方式管理資產負債表這一事實感到非常自豪。更重要的是，我們正在努力消除該訂單項的波動性。因此，如果你看看我們的對沖能力，我們將鎖定我們認為隨著時間的推移非常強勁的利潤率範圍 3.60% 至 3.90%，無論利率環境如何。因此，這給了我們很大的穩定性。如果這意味著我們有更高的 NII 而 NIR 的百分比比歷史上的要低一點，我們對此表示滿意。

To John's point, we are going to look to use our capital for some nonbank acquisitions like you have seen us do, nothing too big, but just to bolster the NIR strength to make us more resilient in just about any environment that we have.

就約翰的觀點而言，我們將尋求將我們的資金用於一些非銀行收購，就像你看到我們所做的那樣，規模不大，只是為了增強 NIR 的實力，使我們在幾乎任何環境中都更具彈性。

Understood. That's helpful. And then just somewhat related, I've been asking a lot of your peers the same question, but you all seem to be building capital kind of well beyond what I would have thought that you would need. And you talked about kind of the upper end to 9.25% to 9.75% CET1, and that's not new. But I guess the question is, why are you and others potentially all building what seems to be well in excess of what you need for CCAR. Are you anticipating something from CCAR changing? Is there kind of pressure behind the scenes from rating agencies, regulators or are just all the banks deciding on their own to be a little more conservative given the cycle where we are.

明白了。這很有幫助。然後有點相關，我一直在問你的很多同行同樣的問題，但你們似乎都在建立資本，這遠遠超出了我認為你們需要的範圍。你談到了 9.25% 到 9.75% CET1 的上限，這並不是什麼新鮮事。但我想問題是，為什麼你和其他人可能都在建造看起來遠遠超過 CCAR 所需的東西。您是否期待 CCAR 會有所改變？是否存在來自評級機構、監管機構的幕後壓力，或者只是所有銀行都自行決定考慮到我們所處的周期而更加保守一些。

Yes. Well, Matt, we can't speak for the other banks. I would say for us, it is a bit of an uncertain time. We think there potentially are opportunities to continue to make nonbank acquisitions will arise. We were fortunate enough to make 3 in a short period of time at the end of 2021 and just operating at the upper end of our range gives us some flexibility, and we'd like to continue to maintain that given the uncertain environment that we're operating in.

是的。好吧，馬特，我們不能代表其他銀行。我想對我們說，這是一個不確定的時期。我們認為可能會出現繼續進行非銀行收購的機會。我們很幸運能夠在 2021 年底的短時間內生產 3 台，僅在我們範圍的上限運營給了我們一些靈活性，鑑於我們不確定的環境，我們希望繼續保持這種靈活性。重新經營。

And if you look a CCAR degradation in capital was one of the lowest of the peer group. So we don't need capital to take care of the risk embedded in our balance sheet, it is really opportunistic -- opportunities we're looking for. And frankly, having a little bit more capital doesn't hurt us from a return standpoint. We generated over 30% return on tangible common equity. And so having upper end of the 9.75% won't impact any meaningful way.

如果你看一下 CCAR 的資本退化是同行中最低的之一。因此，我們不需要資本來應對資產負債表中的風險，這真的是機會主義的——我們正在尋找的機會。坦率地說，從回報的角度來看，擁有更多的資本並不會傷害我們。我們產生了超過 30% 的有形普通股回報率。因此，擁有 9.75% 的上限不會影響任何有意義的方式。

Our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Betsy Graseck 與摩根士丹利的對話。

A couple of questions. One, just on the loan growth outlook, I know you indicated you expect ending balance just to be about 4% up year-on-year. Could you give us a sense as to how you're thinking through the dynamics of which pieces of the loan growth are likely to accelerate be on the high side, lower side? And then how much longer that runoff portfolio is going to impact the numbers?

幾個問題。第一，就貸款增長前景而言，我知道你表示你預計期末餘額將同比增長 4% 左右。您能否告訴我們您是如何思考哪些貸款增長可能加速的動態是偏高，偏低？然後，徑流投資組合將影響數字多長時間？

Yes. So we expect loan growth to slow just with general economy slowing. I think our growth opportunities will manifest itself in the corporate banking group, commercial and corporate banking as line utilization likely goes up a bit. I think there will be some opportunities in the real estate. We did have some growth of real estate, primarily multifamily, still happy with that. We do have one of the lowest concentrations of investor real estate compared to the peer group. But we look at utilizing our capital selectively with the right customers, doing the right things, in particular, like I said, multifamily.

是的。因此，我們預計貸款增長將隨著整體經濟放緩而放緩。我認為我們的增長機會將體現在企業銀行業務集團、商業和企業銀行業務中，因為線路利用率可能會有所上升。我認為房地產會有一些機會。我們確實有一些房地產增長，主要是多戶型，我們仍然對此感到滿意。與同行相比，我們確實是投資者房地產集中度最低的國家之一。但我們著眼於有選擇地利用我們的資本與合適的客戶，做正確的事情，特別是，就像我說的，多戶家庭。

On the consumer side, our interbank acquisition we had in the end of '21, as John mentioned, is doing well for us. We look for that to have opportunities to continue to grow. And mortgage, while it's going to be challenging again in '23 because of the rate environment, although it's settled back a bit, it will give us some opportunity to grow a bit in the consumer side. As you mentioned, we do have some runoff portfolios. Our last one -- by the time we get to the end of this year, we're probably not having a discussion about exit portfolios anymore.

在消費者方面，正如約翰提到的那樣，我們在 21 年底進行的銀行間收購對我們來說做得很好。我們希望有機會繼續發展。和抵押貸款，雖然由於利率環境，它在 23 年將再次面臨挑戰，雖然它有所回落，但它會給我們一些機會在消費者方面有所增長。正如您提到的，我們確實有一些決選組合。我們的最後一個——到今年年底時，我們可能不會再討論退出組合了。

Yes, I would just add, despite the fact that we expect a small business customer to be under some pressure in more challenged economy, we're seeing real opportunity through the Ascentium Capital platform, making loans to businesses on business essential equipment. We're able to leverage that platform, which is very specialized in nature through our branch system into our existing customer base and over 35%-plus of our branches in 2022 originated a loan through the Ascentium Capital. We'll see more of that grow, I think, and again, another opportunity to leverage an acquisition into our existing customer base.

是的，我只想補充一點，儘管我們預計小企業客戶在更具挑戰性的經濟中會承受一些壓力，但我們通過 Ascentium Capital 平台看到了真正的機會，向企業提供商業基本設備貸款。我們能夠利用這個平台，這個平臺本質上非常專業，通過我們的分支系統進入我們現有的客戶群，到 2022 年，我們超過 35% 的分支機構通過 Ascentium Capital 發放了貸款。我認為，我們將看到更多的增長，並且再次有機會利用收購進入我們現有的客戶群。

Yes, that was going to be one of my follow-ups, just trying to understand Ascentium and the dynamic and the driver that it is for you. And I guess the underlying question here is, is it -- what's the average size of this loan, an Ascension loan? Is it more of a small business side or medium? Or maybe you can give us some color around that.

是的，這將是我的後續行動之一，只是試圖了解 Ascentium 及其動態和驅動因素。我想這裡的根本問題是，這筆貸款的平均規模是多少，是 Ascension 貸款？它更像是小型企業還是中型企業？或者你可以給我們一些顏色。

Yes. It is a small business. It's loans originated on equipment that is, as I said, business essential. So the thesis is that, that business owner is likely to pay that loan first because he has to -- he or she has to have the equipment to operate the business. The average size of the loan is about $75,000 and the term would be 3 to 4 years on average.

是的。這是一家小型企業。它的貸款源自設備，正如我所說，業務必不可少。因此，論點是，該企業主可能會首先支付這筆貸款，因為他必須——他或她必須擁有經營企業的設備。貸款的平均規模約為 75,000 美元，平均期限為 3 至 4 年。

Okay. Great. And then just lastly, a follow-up on the funding question that came up earlier. I mean, we're hearing from others that borrowing from Federal Home Loan Banks is interesting, even though the base rate sticker price might look a little higher. You obviously get some dividend back from the slot you also get the fact that you don't have to pay the FDIC. So I'm just wondering, is it at all attractive to you at some point to lean in more there or not?

好的。偉大的。最後，對之前提出的資金問題進行跟進。我的意思是，我們從其他人那裡聽說，從聯邦住房貸款銀行借款很有趣，儘管基準利率標價可能看起來有點高。很明顯，您從老虎機中獲得了一些股息，您還得到了一個事實，即您不必支付 FDIC。所以我只是想知道，在某些時候是否對你有更多的吸引力？

Well, I think we'll need to evaluate with that closer when we get to the point where we need it. We still have opportunities. We've had a $2 billion to $3 billion worth of corporate deposits that have moved off our balance sheet to seek higher rates that we weren't willing to pay. Those are our customers. We own their -- still have their operating account. They just moved their excess cash elsewhere. So there's an opportunity to go back to those customers first before we need to seek other wholesale funding. But I think we have all avenues. We have term debt to that can help us with the FDIC as well. We'll just have to evaluate the total cost of all of our opportunities at that time, which I said earlier is really going to be in the second half of the year.

好吧，我認為當我們到達需要它的地步時，我們需要更接近地進行評估。我們還有機會。我們已經將價值 20 億至 30 億美元的公司存款從我們的資產負債表中移出，以尋求我們不願意支付的更高利率。那些是我們的客戶。我們擁有他們的——還有他們的運營賬戶。他們只是將多餘的現金轉移到別處。因此，在我們需要尋求其他批發資金之前，有機會先回到這些客戶那裡。但我認為我們有所有途徑。我們有定期債務，這也可以幫助我們處理 FDIC。那時我們只需要評估所有機會的總成本，我之前說過這真的會在下半年進行。

Right. You haven't needed that at this stage. Got it.

正確的。在這個階段你不需要那個。知道了。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Scouten with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephen Scouten 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

So it's hard to pick apart anything in this quarter, results were fantastic. I guess the 1 question I get from people is, as we start to see maybe some normalization in credit is, how do you really highlight for folks, how much different your franchise is today versus pre-cycle? I know you've laid some of that out in mid-quarter presentations. The shift to investment grade and so forth. But how would you combat that pushback from some folks?

所以很難在本季度挑選任何東西，結果非常棒。我想我從人們那裡得到的第一個問題是，當我們開始看到信用可能有些正常化時，你如何真正向人們強調，你的特許經營權與週期前相比有多大不同？我知道你已經在季度中期的演講中闡述了其中的一些內容。轉向投資級等等。但是，您將如何應對某些人的抵制呢？

Yes. I think balance and diversity is the first thing I would point to when you look at pre great recession our balance sheet, whether it be on the right side or the left side, assets or liabilities. We had concentrations in certain asset classes, and we were very dependent on interest-bearing deposits for funding. If you look at the reshaping of our balance sheet over time, our -- liability side of our balance sheet, I think, is really strong and provides as we've talked about to this point, the foundation for our outperformance and we expect that will continue.

是的。我認為，當您查看大衰退前我們的資產負債表時，平衡和多樣性是我要指出的第一件事，無論是在右側還是左側，資產還是負債。我們集中於某些資產類別，我們非常依賴生息存款來籌集資金。如果你看一下我們資產負債表隨著時間的推移而重塑，我認為我們資產負債表的負債方面非常強大，並且正如我們已經談到的那樣，為我們的出色表現奠定了基礎，我們預計將繼續。

On the asset side of the balance sheet, we have only -- less than 10% of our outstanding are in investor real estate. That's down significantly from precrisis levels. And we also, I think, have been very, very committed to concentration in risk management. We have a very active and ongoing credit risk management process, which we believe will produce much better results than we had previously delivered. We're committed to consistent sustainable long-term performance, and that requires that we manage credit risk well. At the end of the day, I know we've got to deliver, and we intend to do that, but we think we're well positioned.

在資產負債表的資產方面，我們只有不到 10% 的未償還貸款是投資者房地產。這比危機前的水平大幅下降。我認為，我們也一直非常非常致力於集中風險管理。我們有一個非常積極和持續的信用風險管理流程，我們相信這將產生比我們以前交付的更好的結果。我們致力於始終如一的可持續長期業績，這要求我們妥善管理信用風險。歸根結底，我知道我們必須交付，我們打算這樣做，但我們認為我們已經做好了準備。

I would add that we also developed, not too long ago, a new tool. We call it [Our Click], which didn't mean anything to you. But what it does is it analyzes the cash flows of each of our customers. And we've built that developed that tool to give us an idea of product concerns that a customer may need from us that they don't have. What we found is it gave us such good information on cash flows every month that it gave us an earlier indicator of potential credit stress. And that's part of what you're seeing when you see us move things into criticized categories we can be more proactive because we have better information to manage credit risk management through that tool.

我要補充一點，不久前我們還開發了一種新工具。我們稱之為 [我們的點擊]，這對您來說沒有任何意義。但它所做的是分析我們每個客戶的現金流。我們已經開發了該工具，讓我們了解客戶可能需要我們提供但他們沒有的產品問題。我們發現，它每個月都為我們提供了非常好的現金流信息，使我們能夠更早地了解潛在的信貸壓力。當你看到我們將事情轉移到批評類別時，這就是你所看到的一部分，我們可以更加積極主動，因為我們有更好的信息來通過該工具管理信用風險管理。

Got it. That's extremely helpful. And maybe just 1 other question for me there is loan growth, the 4% guide. I completely respect all the shifts and concerns in the environment that may take that down there. But you put up 11% growth this quarter, utilizations continue to increase. Where could you outperform that 4%, I guess, if the environment maybe wasn't as bad as we might fear? And -- how do you think about that shift you've talked about in the capital markets? And what could really drive that pushing some of those customers back into that space?

知道了。這非常有幫助。也許對我來說只有 1 個其他問題是貸款增長，即 4% 的指導。我完全尊重環境中可能帶來的所有變化和擔憂。但是你本季度增長了 11%，利用率繼續增加。我想，如果環境沒有我們擔心的那麼糟糕，你能在哪裡超越那 4%？而且——你如何看待你在資本市場上談到的這種轉變？什麼能真正推動將其中一些客戶推回該領域？

So we're currently modeling about $2 billion, I think, in current outstanding that could move back. It could move off the balance sheet if capital markets open. That's a rough number, but that's give you some indication of a "headwind" if the capital markets do open. So that could be a plus or minus to answer your question, and I think would be the one area where we probably would see more growth than we anticipated if that did not happen.

所以我們目前正在建模大約 20 億美元，我認為，目前未償還的資金可能會退回。如果資本市場開放，它可能會離開資產負債表。這是一個粗略的數字，但如果資本市場真的開放，這會給你一些“逆風”的跡象。因此，這對於回答您的問題可能是一個加號或減號，我認為如果沒有發生這種情況，我們可能會看到比我們預期的增長更多的領域。

Our line utilization is still below historical levels. Every 1-point increases about $600 million in outstanding. So we get people drawn on their lines, perhaps that could be helpful. We'll see what the rate environment looks like with regards to mortgage. We'll see what the economy looks like for consumers to improve their home and leverage interbank. So there are some opportunities for us to outperform those numbers if the economy kind of continues along its current path. It's still fairly healthy, and inflation is coming down. So I think we have some opportunity to outperform there.

我們的線路利用率仍低於歷史水平。每 1 點增加約 6 億美元的未償付。所以我們讓人們按照他們的路線行事，也許這會有所幫助。我們將了解抵押貸款的利率環境。我們將看到消費者改善房屋和利用銀行同業拆借的經濟狀況。因此，如果經濟繼續沿著目前的道路發展，我們就有機會超越這些數字。它仍然相當健康，通貨膨脹正在下降。所以我認為我們有機會在那裡表現出色。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you guys share with us, you gave an interesting slide in your deck about how your deposit customers have more deposits than your accounts than pre-pandemic, I think, at Slide 17. Have you reached out and what's driving these numbers? Because obviously, you hear about the savings rate nationally is down, but you and your peers are showing numbers like this. And I was just wondering if you could share with us what your -- some of the trends that you're seeing here that keeps these balances the way they are?

你們能和我們分享一下嗎，我想，在幻燈片 17 上，你們在幻燈片中放了一張有趣的幻燈片，說明您的存款客戶的存款比大流行前的存款多。你們接觸過這些數字嗎？因為很明顯，你聽說全國的儲蓄率下降了，但你和你的同齡人卻顯示了這樣的數字。我只是想知道您是否可以與我們分享您在這裡看到的一些趨勢，這些趨勢使這些平衡保持原樣？

Yes. The specific page on 17 on the right-hand side, we're talking about those customers that had less than $1,000 in their account. And that -- compared to the end of '19, they have 6x the balances. A big driver is that cohort was the recipient of a lot of stimulus that stimulus could have come in the form of absolute transfer payments, that could have come in the form of minimum wage increases. Those are permanent. So what we've seen is our customers actually are making more money, and they're keeping it -- they're keeping their spending under control even though we have inflationary pressures.

是的。右側 17 上的特定頁面，我們談論的是那些賬戶中少於 1,000 美元的客戶。而且——與 19 年底相比，他們的餘額是原來的 6 倍。一個重要的驅動因素是，這一群體接受了大量刺激措施，刺激措施可能以絕對轉移支付的形式出現，可能以最低工資增長的形式出現。那些是永久的。因此，我們所看到的是，我們的客戶實際上賺了更多的錢，而且他們一直在賺錢——即使我們面臨通脹壓力，他們仍在控制支出。

So that cohort has had more wage growth than most everybody else and we don't see it going away. We're a bit surprised and we're watching it every month to see if there's a change, but I think the slide was fairly consistent with what we showed you last quarter as well. So from a -- you're really talking about just the consumer on Page 17, but business customers continue to have more liquidity as well.

因此，這一群體的工資增長比其他大多數人都快，而且我們認為它不會消失。我們有點驚訝，我們每個月都在觀察它是否有變化，但我認為幻燈片與我們上個季度向您展示的內容相當一致。所以從 - 你真的只是在第 17 頁談論消費者，但企業客戶也繼續擁有更多的流動性。

I got it. So the wage growth -- they're having better wage growth than most people on this call then, right, David?

我得到了它。所以工資增長——他們的工資增長比這次電話會議上的大多數人都要好，對吧，大衛？

Yes, sir.

是的先生。

Moving on to Slide 19. In the high-risk industry segments, a couple of questions. One, can you share with us -- and maybe you addressed this already in the earlier comments on this slide. But in the office space, is it mostly the Class B and C that or Class B that you're more focused on than Class A? And then second, could there be other industry segments that could show up in the slide 6 months from now or 12 months from now?

轉到幻燈片 19。在高風險行業領域，有幾個問題。第一，你能否與我們分享——也許你已經在這張幻燈片的早期評論中解決了這個問題。但是在辦公空間中，您更關注的是 B 類和 C 類還是 B 類而不是 A 類？其次，從現在起 6 個月或 12 個月後，幻燈片中是否還會出現其他行業細分？

Yes. Gerard, I'd say with respect to your question about office, that would be accurate. We're focused on, let's say, the non-Class, 82% of our portfolio is Class A, 63% is in the Sunbelt. About 36% of our portfolio is single tenant. So the portion that we are concerned about would be Class B space, a good percentage of it is also in suburban markets of 74%, I think, in suburban markets. In terms of industries or segments that we have some concern about, I would say that we're still watching senior housing closely. I think it's performed okay, post-pandemic, but it's an area that we had some concern about rising cost, availability of labor, things that impact that particular segment and then consumer discretionary as people continue to feel the pressure of rising costs and/or the uncertainty in the environment, we think that -- and as unemployment begins to moderate a bit, we think that consumer discretionary is an area that could be impacted.

是的。杰拉德，關於你關於辦公室的問題，我想說的是準確的。比方說，我們專注於非類，我們投資組合的 82% 是 A 類，63% 在陽光地帶。我們的投資組合中約有 36% 是單一租戶。所以我們關心的部分是 B 級空間，其中很大一部分也在郊區市場，我認為，在郊區市場中佔 74%。就我們關注的行業或細分市場而言，我想說我們仍在密切關注老年住房。我認為它在大流行後表現不錯，但這是一個我們對成本上升、勞動力可用性、影響特定細分市場的事情以及隨著人們繼續感受到成本上升和/或我們認為，環境的不確定性——隨著失業率開始有所緩和，我們認為非必需消費品是一個可能受到影響的領域。

Our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Terry McEvoy 和 Stephens 的對話。

Maybe first one, I was hoping you can provide a little bit more details on, I guess, it's Slide 7 in one of those footnotes, specifically how the $40 million security hedge benefit in the fourth quarter will, and I'll put in quotes here, "migrate to loan yields" as those hedges on loans mature. And I guess from a high-level trend to make sure I understand the impact of that $6-plus billion hedge on securities that matured last quarter?

也許是第一個，我希望你能提供更多的細節，我想，這是其中一個腳註中的幻燈片 7，特別是第四季度 4000 萬美元的安全對沖收益將如何，我將引用在這裡，隨著貸款對沖到期，“轉向貸款收益率”。我想從一個高層次的趨勢來看，以確保我了解 6 多億美元的對沖對上個季度到期的證券的影響？

Yes, sure. So what we did at the end of December of '21 is we wanted to add some more sensitivity to the fourth quarter. We had some hedges that were maturing in that fourth quarter that we received fixed swaps. But we wanted to move that and have those effectively terminate a quarter earlier. We could have torn those up, but it would have taken a lot of effort to do so because there are a bunch of small notionals in there and the cost and time to do that. Really, there's an easier way to do it, which is we purchased a pay fixed swap for that quarter. And so when that sensitivity came back, it generated about $40 million in the quarter. Now our sensitivity naturally comes back in the first quarter because we have received fixed swaps that are maturing right at the end of the year. So that sensitivity came back naturally in the first quarter, and that's why you won't see a decline due to this $40 million that we had in the fourth quarter.

是的，當然。因此，我們在 2021 年 12 月底所做的是，我們希望對第四季度增加一些敏感性。我們有一些在第四季度到期的對沖，我們收到了固定掉期。但我們想改變這一點，讓那些有效地提前一個季度終止。我們本可以把它們撕掉，但這樣做會花費很多精力，因為那裡有一堆小概念，而且這樣做需要成本和時間。確實，有一種更簡單的方法可以做到這一點，那就是我們為那個季度購買了付費固定掉期。因此，當這種敏感性回歸時，它在本季度產生了大約 4000 萬美元。現在我們的敏感性自然會在第一季度恢復，因為我們收到了將於年底到期的固定掉期。所以這種敏感性在第一季度自然回歸，這就是為什麼你不會因為我們在第四季度擁有的這 4000 萬美元而看到下降。

That is also why we've been able to give you guidance that we're going to grow NII in the first quarter somewhere between 1% and 3%. So it's not a cliff. You don't need to worry about having a cliff effect for it. That makes sense.

這也是為什麼我們能夠為您提供指導，我們將在第一季度將 NII 增長 1% 到 3%。所以這不是懸崖。您不必擔心它會產生懸崖效應。這就說得通了。

It does, yes. Then as a follow-up, and I don't mean to be 2Q, but I've had a few people ask me. If I look at your 1Q and full year '23 NII guide, does -- is the -- the fourth quarter appears lower than the first quarter. So maybe could you just talk about kind of the trajectory of NII as you think about it today?

確實如此，是的。然後作為後續行動，我並不是要成為 2Q，但有幾個人問過我。如果我看一下你的 1Q 和全年 '23 NII 指南，第四季度是否比第一季度低。那麼，也許你能談談你今天想到的 NII 的軌跡嗎？

Well, we've given you a guide for the year of 13% to 15% up. We've also given you a guide from the fourth quarter to the first quarter growth of 1% to 3%. Now obviously, there's more pressure as after the Fed stops raising rates for a quarter or two, you're going to see deposit costs continue -- they lag. So you're going to continue to see pressure after that. It's going to affect everybody in the industry that way. And so you'll see that decline at some point quarter-over-quarter during the year. So that's why it's harder just to extrapolate the fourth quarter, but we'll see where the Fed goes. Our guidance is predicated on the December 4, if that changes, then we'll come back and update our outlook, but that gives you enough information to be able to model and do your sensitivities. But yes, there will be some declines in NII based on the forwards sometime during 2023.

好吧，我們已經為您提供了 13% 至 15% 的年度漲幅指南。我們還為您提供了從第四季度到第一季度增長 1% 到 3% 的指導。很明顯，在美聯儲停止加息一兩個季度後，你會看到更大的壓力，你會看到存款成本繼續存在——它們滯後。所以在那之後你會繼續看到壓力。它將以這種方式影響行業中的每個人。因此，您會在一年中的某個時候看到季度環比下降。所以這就是為什麼更難推斷第四季度的原因，但我們會看到美聯儲的走向。我們的指導基於 12 月 4 日，如果情況發生變化，那麼我們會回來更新我們的展望，但這會為您提供足夠的信息，以便能夠建模並確定您的敏感性。但是，是的，在 2023 年的某個時候，基於遠期的 NII 會有所下降。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Dave Rochester。

A follow-up on capital. You guys had a nice bump up in ratios this quarter. And just given the loan growth outlook you're talking about; it seems like you'll be at the top end of that target range for CET1 by the end of 1Q. I know the buyback hasn't been a big priority for you recently. But at what point do you think that it might make sense to turn back on?

資本跟進。你們這個季度的比率有了很大的提高。考慮到您所說的貸款增長前景；到第一季度末，您似乎將達到 CET1 目標範圍的頂端。我知道回購最近對你來說並不是一個重要的優先事項。但是您認為在什麼時候重新開啟才有意義？

Yes. So as we think of capital allocation, before I get there, let me point out one thing. We do have the impact of the regulatory change that will hit us in this first quarter as everybody. That's about 10 basis points working the other way. So -- but your question is broader, how do we think about capital allocation, including repurchases. So first off, we want to use our capital to support our loan growth. We want to pay a dividend in the 35% to 45% range. We've been at the low end of that. So we would like to operate over time, at least in the middle of that. We want to use some of our capital for nonbank acquisitions, in particular, to bolster our noninterest revenue as we discussed. I forgot who asked that question. And then the kind of we use the share repurchase as the toggle will keep our capital where we want it to be, which we said would be at the upper end of our range of $9.75. We just think that's prudent with uncertainty overly negatively affect our return. So if we go meaningfully over that, we could turn on share repurchases and we'll just have to see how that -- the capital generation should be very strong in 2023. And we should have enough to do all things I mentioned and if we can't put our capital to work doing a nonbank acquisition, then we'll give it back to the shareholders.

是的。因此，當我們考慮資本配置時，在我到達那里之前，讓我指出一件事。我們確實受到監管變化的影響，這將在第一季度像每個人一樣打擊我們。換句話說，這大約是 10 個基點。所以 - 但你的問題更廣泛，我們如何考慮資本配置，包括回購。所以首先，我們想用我們的資本來支持我們的貸款增長。我們希望支付 35% 至 45% 範圍內的股息。我們一直處於低端。所以我們想隨著時間的推移進行操作，至少在中間進行。正如我們所討論的，我們希望將部分資金用於非銀行收購，特別是為了增加我們的非利息收入。我忘了是誰問的這個問題。然後我們使用股票回購作為開關的那種方式將使我們的資本保持在我們想要的水平，我們說這將在我們 9.75 美元範圍的上限。我們只是認為這是謹慎的，因為不確定性會對我們的回報產生過度的負面影響。因此，如果我們有意義地解決這個問題，我們可以啟動股票回購，我們只需要看看它如何——到 2023 年資本的產生應該會非常強勁。我們應該有足夠的資金來做我提到的所有事情，如果我們不能將我們的資金用於非銀行收購，那麼我們將把它返還給股東。

Okay. I appreciate the color there. And then back on the $3 billion to $5 billion deposit one-off outlook you talked about earlier. I was glad to hear you seem to be conservative with assuming all of that runoff was in noninterest-bearing deposits, was curious regarding the big picture, what you're seeing in the book that gets you to the $3 billion to $5 billion range? And how sensitive is that just a stronger move up in Fed funds, if we end up seeing that and then how are you thinking about funding that runoff where that's going to come from the securities book, which is lower rate or if you're assuming some of that or most of that comes out of cash at this point in your NII book.

好的。我欣賞那裡的顏色。然後回到您之前談到的 30 億至 50 億美元的一次性存款前景。我很高興聽到您似乎對假設所有徑流都是無息存款持保守態度，對大局感到好奇，您在書中看到的是什麼讓您達到 30 億至 50 億美元的範圍？如果我們最終看到這一點，那麼聯邦基金的更強勁上漲有多敏感，那麼你如何考慮為來自證券賬簿的徑流提供資金，這是較低的利率，或者如果你假設此時，在您的 NII 賬簿中，其中一部分或大部分來自現金。

Yes. We have plenty of cash right now to take care of that runoff. So that's not a big deal. That $3 billion to $5 billion or -- there's some corporate changes in there that will be seeking rates. There's some consumer changes that are seeking rates. Historically, movements like this happen late cycle. So we're getting there. We all think that we're getting towards the end of the cycle and so people will look to capture that upside so they can lock in the best rate before rates start going the other way. So how much conservatism we have in there, we'll see. We had a pretty big run-up in deposits, $40 billion during the pandemic, and we're holding on to quite a bit of that more so than we originally thought, but I think it would be prudent to -- we think it's prudent to put in this runoff of $3 billion to $5 billion and again, conservatively all in NIB.

是的。我們現在有足夠的現金來處理這筆決流。所以這沒什麼大不了的。那 30 億到 50 億美元，或者 - 那裡有一些公司變化將尋求利率。有一些正在尋求利率的消費者變化。從歷史上看，像這樣的運動發生在較晚的周期。所以我們到了那裡。我們都認為我們正接近週期的尾聲，因此人們會尋求抓住這一優勢，以便在利率開始向相反方向發展之前鎖定最佳利率。那麼我們在那裡有多少保守主義，我們將拭目以待。我們的存款大幅增加，在大流行期間達到 400 億美元，而且我們持有的存款比我們原先想像的要多得多，但我認為這是謹慎的——我們認為這是謹慎的投入 30 億至 50 億美元的資金，保守地全部投入 NIB。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Could you speak to concerns that we could see the mix of time deposits and noninterest-bearing deposits return, potentially not just the pre-COVID levels, but back to pre-GST levels in this environment. You've given a lot of great detail on the strength of your deposit size, but it would be great to hear your thoughts on sort of that risk, both broadly at the industry level and more specifically for reasons as we look ahead from here.

您能否談談我們可能會看到定期存款和無息存款混合回歸的擔憂，可能不僅僅是 COVID 之前的水平，而是在這種環境下回到商品及服務稅之前的水平。你已經提供了很多關於你的存款規模強度的細節，但很高興聽到你對這種風險的看法，無論是在行業層面還是更具體的原因，因為我們從這裡展望未來。

Yes. You're breaking up a little bit, but I think what your question was, how do we think about time deposits versus noninterest-bearing deposits and where will we settle out over time? So we're sitting here today at 39% noninterest-bearing. There have been some movements out of that to -- because we were over 40% into CDs. So we do believe there's going to be some remixing that's built into our beta assumption of 35% through the end of the year. We still think we'll have more NIB than most everybody because that's the nature of our deposit book. Very granular deposits, in particular on the consumer side where we have leading primacy that makes a difference. So money goes in, money goes out. They're not seeking rate, they use it as there, that's their operating account. And so we believe that we will continue to see some decline in the NIB. Again, we conservatively put $4 billion out of that. We think there's probably a chance that there'll be -- it won't all come out of NIB, but we thought that was the best thing to do from a guidance standpoint.

是的。你有點分手了，但我想你的問題是，我們如何看待定期存款與無息存款以及隨著時間的推移我們將在哪裡結算？所以我們今天以 39% 的無息利率坐在這裡。已經有了一些變化——因為我們有超過 40% 的人進入了 CD。因此，我們確實相信，到今年年底，我們對 35% 的貝塔假設會進行一些重新混合。我們仍然認為我們將擁有比大多數人更多的 NIB，因為這是我們存款簿的性質。非常精細的存款，特別是在我們擁有領先地位的消費者方面，這會有所作為。所以錢進來，錢出去。他們不尋求利率，他們在那裡使用它，那是他們的運營賬戶。因此，我們相信我們將繼續看到 NIB 有所下降。同樣，我們保守地從中投入了 40 億美元。我們認為可能會有 - 它不會全部來自 NIB，但我們認為從指導的角度來看這是最好的事情。

That's very helpful. And then separately, I wanted to follow up on your comments around the NIM protection that you put in place, how would you respond to the view that the downside protection that banks are putting on in this environment doesn't make a lot of sense because of the negative carry associated with it since the forward curve discount everything that we see in the current environment, you're effectively just investing at whatever the yield curve is -- whatever the yield curve is at the moment.

這很有幫助。然後，我想單獨跟進您對您實施的 NIM 保護的評論，您如何回應銀行在這種環境下提供的下行保護沒有多大意義的觀點，因為由於遠期曲線折現了我們在當前環境中看到的所有東西，因此與之相關的負利差，你實際上只是投資於收益率曲線是什麼——無論收益率曲線是什麼。

Well, the most important thing to remember is our hedging strategy is not meant to generate increases in NII. It is a risk reduction measure. It's a hedge, is to protect us in low rates. When you have a deposit franchise like we do that has lower costs than our peers, and that's the way it's been historically. As rates come down, we don't have a mechanism to protect our net interest margin because we can't lower deposit costs much as low as our peers can. Therefore, we have to do it synthetically. And that's what the hedge program does. And we set these up generally forward starting. So we don't have negative carry until they start or the risk of negative carry until they start.

嗯，最重要的是要記住我們的對沖策略並不是為了增加 NII。這是一種降低風險的措施。這是一種對沖，是為了在低利率下保護我們。當您擁有像我們這樣的存款特許經營權時，其成本低於我們的同行，這就是歷史上的方式。隨著利率下降，我們沒有一種機制來保護我們的淨息差，因為我們無法將存款成本降低到同行所能達到的最低水平。因此，我們必須綜合地去做。這就是對沖計劃所做的。我們通常將這些設置為向前啟動。因此，在他們開始之前我們沒有負進位，或者在他們開始之前沒有負進位的風險。

And frankly, if we do at that time, that means rates are higher, and the rest of our book is earning that much more, and we're okay with that. What it means is, yes, it cost us a little bit in NII, but we have a leading margin. So we're okay. You can't think of it as a trade as some people talk about it as being a trade. That's not what it is. it's a hedge to protect us in a low rate.

坦率地說，如果我們當時這樣做，那就意味著利率更高，而我們這本書的其餘部分賺得更多，我們對此表示滿意。這意味著，是的，我們在 NII 中花費了一點，但我們有領先的利潤。所以我們沒事。您不能像某些人所說的那樣將其視為交易。事實並非如此。這是一種以低利率保護我們的對沖。

Your final question comes from the line of Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities.

你的最後一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Jennifer Demba。

A question on loan growth. I'm just curious how much competitive retrenchment you're seeing from the banks you compete with most often? And how offensive are you willing to get for credits that look really attractive right now to you?

關於貸款增長的問題。我只是想知道您從最常與之競爭的銀行那裡看到了多少競爭性裁員？你願意為了現在對你來說真的很有吸引力的學分而受到多大的冒犯？

Well, I would say, first of all, plenty of competition out there, and we don't -- while there are certain segments, particularly real estate, where there are some competitors who are not as active today for a variety of reasons, in general, the market is very competitive, whether it be large banks, regional banks, smaller banks that we compete with. And so we've got to be actively calling on our customers and our prospects and being very diligent in our activities, making sure that we're in the market in front of customers. When we're doing that, we get opportunities.

好吧，我想說，首先，那裡有很多競爭，而我們沒有——雖然在某些領域，尤其是房地產領域，由於各種原因，有些競爭對手今天並不那麼活躍，總的來說，市場競爭非常激烈，無論是大型銀行、區域銀行還是我們與之競爭的小型銀行。因此，我們必須積極拜訪我們的客戶和潛在客戶，並在我們的活動中非常勤奮，確保我們在客戶面前進入市場。當我們這樣做時，我們就有機會。

With respect to how aggressive we want to be, we don't change our approach to how we think about credit risk management, how we think about pricing and structure. We want to win because we have expertise because we provide really good ideas and solutions to customers, and we think that, that resonates. And as a result, has helped us continue to build on growth in our portfolio.

關於我們想要變得多麼激進，我們不會改變我們對信用風險管理的看法，我們對定價和結構的看法。我們想贏是因為我們擁有專業知識，因為我們為客戶提供了真正好的想法和解決方案，我們認為這會引起共鳴。因此，幫助我們繼續擴大我們的投資組合。

Okay. That's all the calls, I think. I'd just end by saying we're awfully proud of our 2022 results and the momentum that we're carrying into 2023. We've worked hard over the last 10 years to remake our business and to build a balance sheet and income statement and importantly, a culture of risk management that will allow us to deliver consistent, sustainable performance. And we think we're seeing that now. We're going to continue to focus on organic growth and investing in our business, and we believe we'll continue to deliver the kinds of results that you've seen in 2022.

好的。我想這就是所有電話。最後我想說，我們對我們 2022 年的業績以及我們進入 2023 年的勢頭感到非常自豪。在過去的 10 年裡，我們一直在努力重塑我們的業務並建立資產負債表和損益表重要的是，風險管理文化將使我們能夠提供一致、可持續的績效。我們認為我們現在看到了。我們將繼續專注於有機增長和對我們業務的投資，我們相信我們將繼續提供您在 2022 年看到的那種結果。

So thank you for your interest in our company, and have a great weekend.

感謝您對我們公司的關注，祝週末愉快。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。