(RF) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation's Quarterly Earnings Call. My name is Christine, and I'll be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

早上好，歡迎參加地區金融公司的季度財報電話會議。我叫克莉絲汀，我是今天電話的接線生。 （操作員說明）。我現在將把電話轉給達納諾蘭開始。

Thank you, Christine. Welcome to Regions Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding our results. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments and Q&A. I will now turn the call over to John.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。歡迎參加 2023 年第四季各地區財報電話會議。約翰和大衛將對我們的結果提供高水準的評論。收益文件，包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則信息，可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取。這些揭露內容包括我們的簡報資料、準備好的評論和問答。我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. This morning, we reported full year 2023 earnings of $2 billion, reflecting record pretax pre-provision income of $3.2 billion and one of the best returns on average tangible common equity in our peer group at 22%.

謝謝你，達納，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天早上，我們報告了 2023 年全年盈利 20 億美元，反映出創紀錄的 32 億美元的稅前撥備收入，以及我們同行中平均有形普通股回報率最高的公司之一（22%）。

Our results speak to and underscore the comprehensive work that has taken place over the past decade to position the company to generate consistent, sustainable earnings regardless of the economic environment we're experiencing. We've enhanced our credit and interest rate risk management processes and platforms while sharpening our focus on risk-adjusted returns and capital allocation.

我們的結果說明並強調了過去十年中為使公司能夠產生持續、可持續的盈利而進行的全面工作，無論我們正在經歷什麼經濟環境。我們增強了信用和利率風險管理流程和平台，同時更重視風險調整回報和資本配置。

Although the industry continues to face headwinds from lingering economic and geopolitical uncertainty as well as the continued evolution of the regulatory framework, we feel confident about our positioning and adaptability heading into 2024. We'll continue to benefit from our strong and diverse balance sheet, solid capital and liquidity and prudent credit risk management.

儘管該行業繼續面臨揮之不去的經濟和地緣政治不確定性以及監管框架持續演變帶來的阻力，但我們對進入2024 年的定位和適應性充滿信心。我們將繼續受益於我們強大而多元化的資產負債表，雄厚的資本和流動性以及審慎的信用風險管理。

Our proactive hedging strategies continue to position us for success in an array of economic conditions and our desirable footprint, granular deposit base and relationship banking approach will continue to serve us well. Our strategic plan continues to deliver consistent, sustainable long-term performance as we focus on soundness, profitability and growth.

我們積極主動的對沖策略將繼續幫助我們在一系列經濟條件下取得成功，而我們理想的足跡、精細的存款基礎和關係銀行業務方法將繼續為我們提供良好的服務。我們的策略計劃持續提供一致、可持續的長期業績，因為我們專注於穩健性、獲利能力和成長。

In closing, I'm excited to work alongside the 20,000 Regions associates who put customers and their needs at the center of all we do and focus on doing the right things the right way every day. Now Dave will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

最後，我很高興能與 20,000 名地區員工一起工作，他們將客戶及其需求置於我們所做工作的中心，每天專注於以正確的方式做正確的事情。現在戴夫將提供有關本季的一些亮點。

Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average and ending loans decreased modestly on a sequential quarter basis, while ending loans grew a little over 1% compared to the prior year. Within the business portfolio, average and ending loans declined 1% quarter-over-quarter. We are remaining judicious, reserving capital for business where we can have a full relationship. Loan demand remains soft as clients continue to exhibit cautious behavior. We are seeing clients make long-term investments when they have to, but if they can defer, they're holding off. In general, sentiment varies across industries with some continuing to expect growth, while others have a more muted outlook. Average and ending consumer loans remained relatively stable as growth in mortgage and EnerBank was partially offset by declines in home equity and the GreenSky exit portfolio sale we completed this quarter.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們從資產負債表開始。平均貸款和期末貸款環比小幅下降，期末貸款與上年同期相比增長略高於 1%。在業務組合中，平均貸款和期末貸款較上季下降 1%。我們仍然保持明智，為我們能夠建立充分關係的業務保留資本。由於客戶繼續表現出謹慎的行為，貸款需求依然疲軟。我們看到客戶在必要時進行長期投資，但如果他們可以推遲，他們就會推遲投資。整體而言，各行業的情緒各不相同，有些產業持續預期成長，而有些產業的前景則較為黯淡。平均和期末消費貸款保持相對穩定，因為抵押貸款和 EnerBank 的成長被房屋淨值下降和我們本季完成的 GreenSky 退出投資組合銷售部分抵消。

Looking forward, we expect 2024 average loan growth to be in the low single digits. From a deposit standpoint, deposits increased modestly on an average and ending basis primarily due to increases in interest-bearing business products, which we expect will partially reverse with tax season in the first quarter. Across all 3 businesses, we continue to experience remixing from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits. However, the pace of remixing has slowed.

展望未來，我們預計 2024 年平均貸款成長將處於低個位數。從存款角度來看，存款平均和期末小幅成長主要是由於計息業務產品的增加，我們預計這種情況將隨著第一季納稅季節的到來而部分扭轉。在所有 3 項業務中，我們繼續經歷從無利息存款到有息存款的重新混合。然而，混音的步伐已經放緩。

Within Consumer, we continue to see balanced normalization, but we believe the pace of remixing will continue to slow as short-term market rates appear to have peaked and the relationship of checking balances to spending levels is getting closer to pre-pandemic levels. Our overall views on deposit balances and rates are unchanged. We expect incremental remixing out of low-cost savings and checking products of between $2 billion and $3 billion and total balances stabilizing by midyear.

在消費者領域，我們繼續看到平衡正常化，但我們認為，隨著短期市場利率似乎已見頂，並且檢查餘額與支出水平的關係越來越接近大流行前的水平，重新混合的步伐將繼續放緩。我們對存款餘額和利率的整體看法沒有改變。我們預計低成本儲蓄和支票產品的增量重組將在 20 億至 30 億美元之間，總餘額到年中將趨於穩定。

This results in a noninterest-bearing mix percentage remaining in the low 30% range. So let's shift to net interest income. Net interest income declined by approximately 4.5% in the quarter driven mostly by deposit cost and mix normalization as well as the start of the active period on $3 billion of incremental hedging. Asset yields benefited from the maturity and replacement of lower-yielding fixed rate loans and securities. Notably, during the quarter, we returned to full reinvestment of paydowns in the securities portfolio and added $500 million over and above that to the portfolio balance taking advantage of attractive market rate and spread levels. Interest-bearing deposit costs were 2.14% in the quarter, representing a 39% rising rate cycle beta. Growth in higher-cost corporate deposits increased our reported deposit betas by approximately 1%, but allowed for the termination of all outstanding FHLB advances.

這導致無息混合百分比保持在 30% 的較低範圍內。那麼讓我們轉向淨利息收入。本季淨利息收入下降約 4.5%，主要是由於存款成本和組合正常化以及 30 億美元增量對沖活躍期的開始。資產收益率受益於低收益固定利率貸款和證券的到期和替代。值得注意的是，在本季度，我們恢復了對證券投資組合的全部付款再投資，並利用有吸引力的市場利率和利差水平，在投資組合餘額之上增加了 5 億美元。本季計息存款成本為 2.14%，利率週期貝塔值上升 39%。成本較高的企業存款的成長使我們報告的存款貝塔值增加了約 1%，但允許終止所有未償還的 FHLB 預付款。

This and a more pronounced slowing in the pace of rate-seeking behavior by retail customers drove modest net interest income outperformance compared to expectations. As we look to 2024, we expect net interest income trends to stabilize over the first half of the year and grow over the back half of the year. $3 billion of additional forward starting hedges in the first quarter and further late-cycle deposit remixing will be a headwind. However, we expect deposit trends to continue to improve with interest-bearing betas peaking in the mid-40% range. The benefits of fixed rate asset turnover will persist, overcoming the headwinds and driving net interest income growth in the second half of the year. With respect to outlook, we expect full year 2024 net interest income to be between $4.7 billion and $4.8 billion.

與預期相比，這一點以及零售客戶尋求利率行為的步伐更加明顯放緩推動淨利息收入表現小幅超出預期。展望2024年，我們預期上半年淨利息收入趨勢將穩定，下半年將成長。第一季額外啟動的 30 億美元遠期對沖和進一步的後期存款重組將是一個阻力。然而，我們預計存款趨勢將持續改善，計息貝塔值將達到 40% 左右的峰值。固定利率資產週轉的利多將持續存在，克服不利因素，帶動下半年淨利息收入成長。就前景而言，我們預計 2024 年全年淨利息收入將在 47 億美元至 48 億美元之間。

Our guidance assumes for 25 basis point rate cuts with long-term rates remaining stable from year-end. However, the path for net interest income is well insulated from changes in market interest rates. The primary driver of net interest income in 2024 will be deposit performance. The lower end of our expected 2024 net interest income range assumes a 25% beta as rates fall, while the higher end assumes a deposit beta similar to what we have experienced during the rising rate environment. In a falling rate environment, we are prepared to manage deposit costs lower to protect the margin. A relatively small portion of interest-bearing deposit balances is responsible for the majority of the deposit cost increase in the cycle. These market price deposits include index and other high beta corporate deposit types that will reprice immediately with Fed funds. The other primary contributor is CDs with a 7-month average maturity.

我們的指引假設降息 25 個基點，長期利率從年底起保持穩定。然而，淨利息收入的路徑很好地不受市場利率變化的影響。 2024 年淨利息收入的主要驅動力將是存款表現。隨著利率下降，我們預期的 2024 年淨利息收入範圍的下限假設為 25%，而上限則假設存款貝塔類似於我們在利率上升環境中經歷的情況。在利率下降的環境下，我們準備降低存款成本以保護利潤。生息存款餘額中相對較小的部分是周期內存款成本增加的主要原因。這些市場價格存款包括指數和其他高貝塔公司存款類型，這些存款將立即以聯邦基金重新定價。另一個主要貢獻者是平均期限為 7 個月的 CD。

While these products will lag in a falling rate environment, we are positioned to offset this cost. So let's take a look at fee revenue and expense. Adjusted noninterest income increased 2% during the quarter as a sequential decline in capital markets was offset by modest increases in most other categories. Full year adjusted noninterest income declined 5%, primarily due to reductions in capital markets and mortgage income as well as the impact of the company's Overdraft Grace feature implemented late in the second quarter. Partially offsetting these declines were new records in 2023 for both treasury management and wealth management revenue. With respect to outlook, we expect full year 2024 adjusted noninterest income to be between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion.

雖然這些產品將在利率下降的環境中滯後，但我們有能力抵消這筆成本。那我們來看看費用收入和費用。本季調整後的非利息收入成長了 2%，資本市場的連續下滑被大多數其他類別的小幅成長所抵銷。全年調整後的非利息收入下降了 5%，主要是由於資本市場和抵押貸款收入的減少以及該公司在第二季末實施的透支寬限功能的影響。 2023 年資金管理和財富管理收入均創下新紀錄，部分抵消了這些下降。就前景而言，我們預計 2024 年全年調整後非利息收入將在 23 億美元至 24 億美元之間。

Let's move on to noninterest expense. Reported noninterest expense increased 8% compared to the prior quarter but included 2 significant adjusted items. $119 million for the FDIC special assessment and $28 million in severance-related costs.

讓我們繼續討論非利息支出。報告的非利息支出較上一季增加 8%，但包括 2 個重大調整項目。 1.19 億美元用於 FDIC 特別評估，2,800 萬美元用於遣散費相關費用。

Adjusted noninterest expense decreased 5%, driven primarily by lower operational losses. Full year adjusted noninterest expense increased 9.7% or approximately 6%, excluding elevated operational losses experienced primarily in the second and third quarters. We remain committed to prudently managing expenses to fund investments in our business. We will continue focusing on our largest expense categories, which include salaries and benefits, occupancy and vendor spend. We expect full year 2024 adjusted noninterest expenses to be approximately $4.1 billion.

調整後的非利息支出下降 5%，主要是因為營運損失減少。全年調整後非利息支出成長 9.7% 或約 6%，不包括主要在第二季和第三季出現的營運虧損增加。我們仍然致力於審慎管理費用，為我們的業務投資提供資金。我們將繼續關注最大的支出類別，包括薪資和福利、入住率和供應商支出。我們預計 2024 年全年調整後非利息支出約為 41 億美元。

From an asset quality standpoint, overall credit performance continues to normalize as expected. Reported annualized net charge-offs for the fourth quarter increased 14 basis points. However, excluding the impact of the GreenSky loan sale, adjusted net charge-offs decreased 1 basis point versus the prior quarter to 39 basis points.

從資產品質來看，整體信用表現持續正常化，符合預期。報告的第四季年化淨沖銷增加了 14 個基點。然而，排除 GreenSky 貸款銷售的影響，調整後的淨沖銷比上一季下降 1 個基點，至 39 個基點。

Full year adjusted net charge-offs were 37 basis points. Total nonperforming loans and business services criticized loans increased during the quarter. Nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans increased to 82 basis points due primarily to downgrade within industries previously identified as higher risk. Keep in mind, between 2013 and 2019, our average NPL ratio was 107 basis points. We expect to see further normalization towards these levels in 2024.

全年調整後淨沖銷為 37 個基點。本季不良貸款和商業服務不良貸款總額增加。不良貸款佔貸款總額的百分比上升至 82 個基點，這主要是由於先前被認為風險較高的行業的評級下調。請記住，2013 年至 2019 年間，我們的平均不良貸款率為 107 個基點。我們預計 2024 年將進一步正常化。

Provision expense was $155 million or $23 million in excess of net charge-offs and includes an $8 million net provision expense related to the consumer loan sale. The allowance for credit loss ratio increased 3 basis points to 1.73% excluding the loan portfolio sold during the quarter, the allowance for credit loss ratio would have increased 6 basis points. The increase to our allowance was primarily due to adverse risk migration and continued credit quality normalization as well as higher qualitative adjustments for incremental risk in certain higher risk portfolios.

撥備費用為 1.55 億美元，比淨沖銷額多 2,300 萬美元，其中包括與消費貸款銷售相關的 800 萬美元淨撥備費用。信用損失準備率增加3個基點至1.73%，如果不包括本季出售的貸款組合，信用損失準備率將增加6個基點。我們準備金的增加主要是由於不利的風險遷移和持續的信貸品質正常化以及對某些較高風險投資組合的增量風險進行了更高的定性調整。

Our average net charge-offs from 2013 to 2019 were 46 basis points. We've seen modest acceleration towards these normalized levels in recent quarters. As a result, we expect our full year 2024 net charge-off ratio to be between 40 and 50 basis points.

2013 年至 2019 年，我們的平均淨沖銷為 46 個基點。最近幾個季度，我們看到了向這些正常化水平的小幅加速。因此，我們預計 2024 年全年淨沖銷率將在 40 至 50 個基點之間。

Turning to capital and liquidity. Given the evolution of the regulatory environment, we expect to maintain our common equity Tier 1 ratio around 10% over the near term. This level will provide sufficient flexibility to meet the proposed changes along the implementation time line while supporting strategic growth objectives and allow us to continue to increase the dividend commensurate with earnings. We ended the year with an estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.2%, while executing $252 million in share repurchases and $223 million in common dividends during the quarter. With that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

轉向資本和流動性。鑑於監管環境的演變，我們預計短期內將普通股一級資本比率維持在 10% 左右。這一水準將提供足夠的靈活性，以滿足實施時間線上建議的變化，同時支持戰略成長目標，並使我們能夠繼續增加與收益相稱的股息。截至年底，我們預計普通股一級資本比率為 10.2%，同時在本季度執行了 2.52 億美元的股票回購和 2.23 億美元的普通股股息。這樣，我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

Appreciate comments on the main levers for NII or within NII for your guidance. I was hoping if you could discuss a little more about the deposit repricing thoughts that you had. Maybe specifically thoughts about sort of the bifurcation between commercial and consumer deposits? And then just any opportunities you've seen with the Fed already having sort of peaked out presumably, any opportunities you've had already to maybe take some actions to ease the pressure on costs.

感謝 NII 或 NII 內部主要槓桿的評論，以供您指導。我希望您能多討論一下您對存款重新定價的想法。也許特別考慮過商業存款和消費者存款之間的分歧？然後，你所看到的聯準會可能已經達到頂峰的任何機會，你可能已經採取一些行動來緩解成本壓力的任何機會。

Sure. Scott, this is David. One important thing to note is that about 30% of our customer base is really the driver of our interest-bearing deposit beta. If you look at that, little over half of that is related to our commercial book. And those deposits are indexed. So to the extent Fed changes rates those index data changes. So you're talking about rightfully 55%, almost 60% of that will come down as rates come down. The other represents consumer deposits. So these being CDs and money market accounts there where we've seen migration out of noninterest-bearing accounts. The money market piece, both of these have to be competitive. We have to watch what our competitors are doing to some degree. But we have mechanisms to really start working that down. Part of that is making sure we don't go too long on our CD maturities.

當然。斯科特，這是大衛。需要注意的一件重要事情是，我們大約 30% 的客戶群實際上是我們有息存款貝塔值的驅動力。如果你看一下，其中一半多一點與我們的商業書籍有關。這些存款都是指數化的。因此，只要聯準會改變利率，這些指數數據就會改變。所以你說的是正確的 55%，其中近 60% 會隨著利率的下降而下降。另一個代表消費者存款。因此，這些是存款證和貨幣市場帳戶，我們已經看到無利息帳戶的遷移。在貨幣市場方面，兩者都必須具有競爭力。我們必須在某種程度上觀察我們的競爭對手在做什麼。但我們有機制可以真正開始解決這個問題。其中一部分是確保我們的 CD 期限不會太長。

So we've been fairly short. I think I mentioned in the prepared comments, our average CD term is 7 months. And so we don't want to extend that much going forward as a matter of we would like to0 shorten that. The coincide was what we think is going to happen with the Fed. Now we have 4 cuts baked in to our guidance -- to hit the midpoint of our guidance, which is on Page 6 of our presentation. And we think that starts probably at the May meeting. And we know that's different than what the market participants believe, but we think that, that's going to -- I think it's going to be slower versus faster.

所以我們的時間相當短。我想我在準備好的評論中提到過，我們的平均 CD 期限是 7 個月。因此，我們不想繼續延長那麼長的時間，因為我們想縮短它。我們認為聯準會將會發生同樣的情況。現在，我們對指導進行了 4 次削減，以達到指導的中點，即演示文稿的第 6 頁。我們認為這可能從五月的會議開始。我們知道這與市場參與者的看法不同，但我們認為，我認為速度會更慢而不是更快。

It's important to note, we're neutral to short-term rates. And so it's all about managing our deposit costs. And I think we have a good plan to do so. We've given you really a range. It's a pretty tight range on NII performance on the Page 6, and we kind of talk about betas. So if our betas kind of follow what we had and as rates have gone up, we're 39 a day. We said we'd probably finish in the mid-40s.

值得注意的是，我們對短期利率持中性態度。因此，這一切都與管理我們的存款成本有關。我認為我們有一個很好的計劃來做到這一點。我們已經給了你一個範圍。第 6 頁的 NII 性能範圍非常窄，我們談論的是測試版。因此，如果我們的貝塔值與我們現有的情況保持一致，並且隨著費率的上升，我們的測試將是每天 39 次。我們說過我們可能會在 40 多歲左右完成。

If we have that coming back down, then we'll be at the upper end of our range if we're only at 25% beta as rates come down, knowing things won't match perfectly, then we'd be at the lower end of the range. So our midpoint is a 35% beta, which we think is very doable, in particular, relative to that half of that -- a little over half of that is related to index deposits on the commercial side.

如果我們的利率下降，那麼我們將處於範圍的上限，如果隨著利率下降，我們只有 25% 的貝塔值，知道事情不會完美匹配，那麼我們就會處於較低的水平範圍的末端。因此，我們的中點是 35% 的貝塔值，我們認為這是非常可行的，特別是相對於其中的一半——其中一半多一點與商業方面的指數存款有關。

Perfect. And then maybe on the lending side. You noted soft client demand, which is very understandable. Just curious how you expect demand to trend as the year unfolds.

完美的。然後也許是在貸款方面。您注意到軟客戶需求，這是非常可以理解的。只是好奇您預計今年的需求趨勢如何。

Yes. Scott, this is John. I would -- our current projections are, we believe economic activity picks up towards the second half of the year and we believe we will experience some growth in core middle market banking and small business banking through our Ascentium platform, asset-based lending, which would be typical of this period of time. And on the consumer side, mortgage and EnerBank continue to contribute to growth. Again, any growth we have will be modest, and that will occur likely toward the back half of the year.

是的。斯科特，這是約翰。我認為，我們目前的預測是，我們相信經濟活動將在下半年有所回升，我們相信我們將透過我們的Ascentium 平台、基於資產的貸款，在核心中間市場銀行業務和小型企業銀行業務方面實現一些成長。將是這時期的典型。在消費者方面，抵押貸款和 EnerBank 繼續為成長做出貢獻。同樣，我們的任何成長都將是溫和的，而且可能會在今年下半年發生。

Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的聯繫。

Just maybe I wanted to follow up on the fee income guide. Maybe if you can dwell into where do you see growth across fee revenue, particularly what are you assuming in there to capital markets, was it weakish fourth quarter? So would love to hear outlook on capital market income within fees? And then do you expect to do more purchases for mortgage servicing rights as you did in the quarter? And should that boost mortgage income?

也許我想跟進費用收入指南。也許如果您能仔細研究您認為費用收入的成長在哪裡，特別是您對資本市場的假設，那麼第四季是否疲軟？那麼想聽聽資本市場費用收入的前景嗎？那麼您是否預計會像本季一樣購買更多抵押貸款服務權？這會增加抵押貸款收入嗎？

Yes. So you -- it's David. So your first point on capital markets, we had a pretty tough capital markets finish in the fourth quarter. Been in that is timing. We think some deals, in particular, in the M&A world got pushed into the first quarter. The rate environment has really hampered our real estate corporate banking income line a bit. We think those rebound, both of those rebound, we think M&A has a tendency -- a chance to pick up probably towards the back half of the year actually, we've seen a little bit of rate relief if you will. So we have a pretty good feel about our capital markets rebound for 2024. Relative to mortgage servicing rights, as you know, we have good capital position. We look to support our business to grow our loan book. We think loan growth will be muted. So we look to other ways to put the capital to work, mortgage servicing rights has been one of those.

是的。所以你——是大衛。關於資本市場的第一點，我們在第四季的資本市場表現相當艱難。身處其中正是時機。我們認為一些交易，特別是併購領域的交易被推遲到了第一季。利率環境確實有點阻礙了我們房地產企業銀行業務的收入線。我們認為這些反彈，兩者都反彈，我們認為併購有一種趨勢——實際上，有可能在今年下半年回升，如果你願意的話，我們已經看到了利率的一點緩解。因此，我們對 2024 年資本市場反彈的感覺非常好。如您所知，相對於抵押貸款服務權，我們擁有良好的資本狀況。我們希望支持我們的業務來擴大貸款規模。我們認為貸款成長將會放緩。因此，我們尋找其他方式來讓資本發揮作用，而抵押貸款服務權就是其中之一。

We feel good about that asset class because we're good at it. We have a low-cost servicing group and we're looking to grow when packages make sense and the economics work to our advantage. There's been a number of those on the market. If we can hit the bid that we have to make sure we get an appropriate risk-adjusted return, we'll do that. We suspect there'll be a couple of opportunities during the year as they usually are. But we have room to grow that without adding a lot of fixed overhead to add people to do the servicing, but we don't have to add a lot of fixed overhead.

我們對該資產類別感覺良好，因為我們擅長它。我們擁有一個低成本的服務團隊，當套餐有意義且經濟對我們有利時，我們希望成長。市場上已經有很多這樣的產品了。如果我們能夠達到我們必須確保獲得適當的風險調整回報的出價，我們就會這樣做。我們懷疑今年會像往常一樣有一些機會。但我們還有發展的空間，無需增加大量固定開銷來增加人員來提供服務，但我們不必增加大量固定開銷。

Yes. I'd just add 2 things, Ebrahim. One is we continue to grow consumer checking accounts and consumer households that contributes to growth. Secondly, we had the best year we've probably ever had in treasury management as we see increases in the number of operating accounts that we're originating and services we're providing to customers. And then finally, Wealth Management had maybe the best year it's had certainly in some time, and we expect wealth management fee revenue to continue to grow in 2024.

是的。我只想添加兩件事，易卜拉欣。一是我們持續增加有助於成長的消費者支票帳戶和消費者家庭。其次，我們度過了財務管理方面可能有史以來最好的一年，因為我們看到我們創建的營運帳戶數量和我們向客戶提供的服務數量都有所增加。最後，財富管理可能是一段時間內最好的一年，我們預計財富管理費用收入將在 2024 年繼續成長。

That's helpful. And just one other one, David. I guess the one flex on deposit pricing is your loan-to-deposit ratio at 77%, just give us a sense of is this steady state in somewhere in the mid- to high 70s where you see running the bank going forward? Or if rates get cut, you could see this ratio drift into the 80s and that probably provides you some pricing flexibility.

這很有幫助。還有另一位，大衛。我猜存款定價的一個彈性因素是貸存比為 77%，請讓我們了解一下，這種穩定狀態是否處於 70 年代中高級的某個位置，您認為銀行未來的運營情況會如何？或者，如果利率下調，您可能會看到該比率漂移到 80 左右，這可能會為您提供一定的定價靈活性。

Yes. So we really don't run the bank trying to solve for our loan deposit ratio. It's just kind of a result of all of our activities that we have. At 77% we're a little bit lower than the peer median by 2, 3 points. It gives us some flexibility to not have to put a lot of pressure on the deposit base. Remember, my opening comments where we want to be fair and balanced with regards to our customers, making sure that we were competitive but we don't have to push. We don't have to be at the upper end of pricing just to maintain those deposits. We have a good core deposit base and it gives us flexibility to not have to chase with rate. And that's why our deposit costs have tendency to be a bit lower across the board.

是的。因此，我們確實不會讓銀行試圖解決我們的貸存比問題。這只是我們所有活動的結果。我們的比率為 77%，比同業中位數低了 2、3 個百分點。它給了我們一定的彈性，不必對存款基礎施加很大的壓力。請記住，我的開場白是我們希望對客戶公平和平衡，確保我們具有競爭力，但我們不必推動。我們不必僅僅為了維持這些存款而處於定價的高端。我們擁有良好的核心存款基礎，這使我們能夠靈活地不必追逐利率。這就是為什麼我們的存款成本傾向於全面降低。

Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自馬南·戈薩利亞 (Manan Gosalia) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的對話。

I think you mentioned earlier on in the call that clients are deferring longer-term investments if they can. Can you talk about what's driving that? Is it just rates and they're waiting for rates to come down? Is part of it the environment and they need more certainty there? So any light on your conversations there would be helpful.

我想您之前在電話會議中提到，如果可以的話，客戶將推遲長期投資。您能談談是什麼推動了這個趨勢嗎？只是利率，他們正在等待利率下降嗎？環境是其中的一部分嗎？他們需要更多的確定性嗎？因此，任何有關你們談話的線索都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think probably all of the above, clearly, rising interest rates that have had some impact rising costs, cost of goods, cost of labor has had an impact. And then uncertainty related to the economy, geopolitical conditions, the political environment here in the U.S., all have, I think, created some restraint. Borrowers are, I believe, more optimistic today than they were 60 to 90 days ago, and that's in line with what appear to be improving economic conditions, but still reluctant to initiate long-term investments currently just based upon the things that I described.

是的。我認為可能以上所有情況，顯然，利率上升已經產生了一些影響，成本上升、商品成本、勞動成本都產生了影響。我認為，與經濟、地緣政治條件、美國政治環境相關的不確定性都造成了一些限制。我認為，今天的借款人比 60 到 90 天前更加樂觀，這與經濟狀況似乎正在改善的情況相符，但目前仍然不願意僅根據我所描述的情況啟動長期投資。

So as we think about deposit betas when rates go down, I think you and a number of your peers have suggested that okay, loan growth will accelerate as we get a resolution on some of these matters and as rates go down. But then on the flip side, does that mean that deposit competition picks back up? I'm just trying to assess the level of confidence on the high and low end of that range of that 25% to 45% down beta?

因此，當我們考慮利率下降時的存款貝塔值時，我認為您和您的一些同行已經建議，好吧，隨著我們就其中一些問題達成解決方案並且隨著利率下降，貸款增長將會加速。但另一方面，這是否意味著存款競爭將會加劇？我只是想評估 25% 到 45% 的貝塔值下降範圍的高端和低端的置信水平？

Well, we still think loan growth for the year is going to be relatively muted. And competition for deposits has always been fairly intense. Which you don't want to have to do is use rate. You want to have a relationship banking model, which is what we do. We leverage off of the checking account of the consumer and an operating account of a business. And with that comes all of the type of funding. For us, we have no wholesale borrowings to speak of, paid off all of our FHLB advances. So we have the ability to lever up there to cover incremental growth without having to reprice our deposit base. So if there's incremental pressure or competition on deposits, I don't think it will be all that meaningful for us in particular.

嗯，我們仍然認為今年的貸款成長將相對溫和。而存款的競爭一直相當激烈。您不想做的是使用率。您想要一個關係銀行模式，這就是我們所做的。我們利用消費者的支票帳戶和企業的營運帳戶。隨之而來的是所有類型的資金。對我們來說，我們沒有批發借款可言，還清了所有 FHLB 預付款。因此，我們有能力利用槓桿來滿足增量成長，而無需重新定價我們的存款基礎。因此，如果存款壓力或競爭不斷增加，我認為這對我們來說沒有多大意義。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞安·納許與高盛的對話。

Maybe a question on capital. David, in the slides, you talked about maintaining 10%, your over 8% on an adjusted basis. Maybe just talk about how you think about uses of capital outside of loan growth. I know we had some buyback this quarter. I think in December, we were talking about the potential for securities portfolio restructuring. Maybe just talk a little bit about how you're thinking about incremental uses of capital from here.

也許是關於資本的問題。大衛，在幻燈片中，您談到保持 10%，調整後超過 8%。也許只是談談您如何看待貸款成長之外的資本用途。我知道本季我們進行了一些回購。我想在 12 月，我們討論了證券投資組合重組的潛力。也許只是談談您如何考慮這裡的資本增量使用。

Yes. So obviously, let me just go through the kind of checkpoints as we think about it. So we want to use our capital to support loan growth. It's going to be fairly muted. As I mentioned, we want to pay a fair dividend, 35% to 45% of our earnings. So we think that's covered. We then have excess capital that we look to put to work in growing our business. We've looked at more searching rights, as I mentioned just a couple of calls ago. And we'll continue to look for businesses that we think can help us grow.

是的。顯然，讓我來回顧一下我們思考的那些檢查點。因此，我們希望用我們的資本來支持貸款成長。它將相當安靜。正如我所提到的，我們希望支付公平的股息，占我們收入的 35% 到 45%。所以我們認為這已經涵蓋了。然後，我們就有了多餘的資本，我們希望將其用於發展我們的業務。正如我在幾次通話前提到的那樣，我們已經考慮了更多的搜尋權。我們將繼續尋找我們認為可以幫助我們成長的企業。

We have talked about the securities repositioning. We continue to evaluate that. We have not made any decisions to do that just yet. And outside of that, we don't want our capital to get too far away from 10%. And the 10% is pegged on the fact that we think we're close enough with our ability to accrete capital every quarter to adapt to whatever the regulatory environment is going to be.

我們已經討論過證券重新定位的問題。我們將繼續對此進行評估。我們還沒有做出任何決定來做到這一點。除此之外，我們不希望我們的資本與 10% 相差太遠。 10% 是基於這樣一個事實：我們認為我們已經足夠接近每季累積資本的能力，以適應未來的監管環境。

There's a lot of uncertainty with regards to what that's going to look like, and there's no need for us to continue to ramp up capital to an unnecessary level and hurt our return, we think we're in an optimal spot to be able to maneuver and so we think the 10% number is the right thing to do -- the right place to be.

未來的情況存在著許多不確定性，我們沒有必要繼續將資本增加到不必要的水平並損害我們的回報，我們認為我們處於能夠進行操作的最佳位置因此，我們認為10% 的數字是正確的做法——正確的位置。

Got it. Maybe to come at net interest income and net interest margin from a little bit of a different perspective. You gave us guidance for the first quarter and NIM is expected to be around 350 for the full year. Maybe David, you were daring. Talk about how you see it evolving over the course of the year end. When you look out as we think about the declining rate cycle, where do you foresee the net interest margin settling out over time? I know historically, we've talked about a 3.6% to 4% range. Maybe just a little bit of color on where you see it settling out over the course of the next couple of years.

知道了。或許可以從稍微不同的角度來看淨利息收入和淨利差。您為我們提供了第一季的指導，預計全年淨利差約為 350。也許大衛，你很大膽。談談你如何看待它在年底的過程中的演變。當您考慮利率下降週期時，您預期淨利差會隨著時間的推移而穩定在什麼位置？我知道，從歷史上看，我們討論過 3.6% 到 4% 的範圍。也許只是一點點顏色，你會看到它在未來幾年的過程中會穩定下來。

Yes. So I think you're going to see that margin pressure a little bit in the first quarter and slightly in the second quarter. The first quarter has another, call it, $3 billion of received fixed swaps that will become effective that will have some negative carry that hurts us a bit in the first quarter. And then things start to change a bit beginning in the second quarter so literally, like after the first month.

是的。因此，我認為您會在第一季看到一點利潤率壓力，在第二季度看到一點利潤率壓力。第一季還有另一個，稱為 30 億美元的已收到固定掉期，這些固定掉期將生效，這將產生一些負利差，這對第一季的我們造成了一些傷害。然後，從第二季開始，事情開始發生一些變化，就像第一個月之後一樣。

So I think you'll see a little bit more of a movement in the first quarter and a tiny movement in second. And then we can start to rebound a bit where we'll finish. We think for the year in the 3.50% range, I think as things settle down, we had talked about 3.60% to 4%. That 3.60% was predicated on rates really going back down to very low levels, and that's the purpose of our whole hedging strategy is because we have lower deposit costs of most everybody. If we're going to protect our margin, we have to do it synthetically. And so we have about $20 billion in any given year of received fixed swaps and some other derivatives to help us manage the net interest margin in the 3.60% to 4% range.

所以我認為你會在第一季看到更多的變化，在第二季看到微小的變化。然後我們就可以在結束時開始反彈。我們認為今年的利率在 3.50% 的範圍內，我認為隨著事情穩定下來，我們已經討論過 3.60% 到 4% 的問題。 3.60% 的前提是利率確實回落至非常低的水平，這就是我們整個對沖策略的目的，因為我們大多數人的存款成本都較低。如果我們要保護我們的利潤，我們就必須綜合採取措施。因此，我們在任何特定年份都會收到約 200 億美元的固定掉期和其他一些衍生性商品，以幫助我們將淨利差管理在 3.60% 至 4% 的範圍內。

So you're likely over time to be kind of in the middle of that. And we think that that's a possibility in time that things have to settle out. We've got to get deposit costs back to tie up with where rates are. But we can probably exit the year in the 3.60% range.

所以隨著時間的推移，你可能會陷入其中。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，事情有可能得到解決。我們必須讓存款成本恢復到與利率水準相符的水準。但我們可能會在 3.60% 的範圍內退出今年。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the operating leverage side, I mean, your guidance implies negative operating leverage unsurprisingly for 2024. But as you look at your trajectory on the revenue front, your assumptions there combined with your expense expectations, how do you view the likelihood of achieving positive operating leverage in 2025. And when do you expect that you could break into a more positive trajectory on a quarterly basis.

在營運槓桿方面，我的意思是，您的指導意味著2024 年營運槓桿為負值，這並不令人意外。但是，當您查看收入方面的軌跡時，您的假設與支出預期相結合，您如何看待實現正營運槓桿的可能性2025 年的槓桿率。您預計什麼時候可以按季度進入更積極的軌道。

So I have a tendency to look at it on an annual basis. And you're right, we can't generate positive operating leverage in '24, primarily because of our outperformance in the first 2 quarters of '23, where we were having above 4% margin, which is way above most everybody. And so I think that's been acknowledged in the marketplace. I do think we can get back at '25 to generate positive operating leverage, and we'll start trending there towards the back half of the year as we see us bottoming out in terms of net interest income and margin in the second quarter, and then we can start to grow from there.

所以我傾向於每年查看一次。你是對的，我們無法在 24 年產生正的營運槓桿，主要是因為我們在 23 年前兩個季度的表現出色，我們的利潤率超過 4%，遠高於大多數人。所以我認為這已經得到了市場的認可。我確實認為我們可以回到 25 年以產生積極的營運槓桿，我們將在今年下半年開始趨勢，因為我們看到我們在第二季度的淨利息收入和利潤率方面觸底，然後我們就可以從那裡開始成長。

We'll see what the economy looks like. We'll see what loan growth looks like. We think that picks up a bit. And we think the pressure on deposit betas start to go the other way. And as I just mentioned, we can exit with a little stronger margin. So I think positive operating leverage towards the back half is a possibility.

我們將看看經濟狀況如何。我們將看看貸款成長情況如何。我們認為這種情況有所改善。我們認為存款貝塔值的壓力開始朝相反方向發展。正如我剛才提到的，我們可以以稍強的利潤退出。因此，我認為下半年的積極營運槓桿是有可能的。

And definitely for 2025.

肯定是 2025 年。

And we're going to get there for 2025.

我們將在 2025 年實現這一目標。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then secondly, around credit. Regarding the NPA increase, I know you've flagged the downgrade -- the risk rating downgrades and some of the higher risk sectors. Maybe can you give us a little bit more color whether -- was it concentrated in any one sector? Was there a broader scrub of the loan book that you completed that led you to the multiple of the -- multiple downgrades? Or is it just episodic and then, I guess, just separately, can you talk about the reserve? I know you built it a bit here. What's the outlook there if you continue to add from here?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。其次，圍繞信貸。關於 NPA 的增加，我知道您已經標記了評級下調——風險評級下調和一些風險較高的行業。也許您能給我們更多資訊嗎—它是否集中在任何一個部門？您是否對貸款簿進行了更廣泛的清理，導致您多次降級？或者只是偶爾發生，然後，我想，只是單獨地，你能談談儲備嗎？我知道你在這裡建了一點。如果您繼續從這裡添加，那裡的前景如何？

I'd just say, John, with respect to the increase in NPLs, we've called out portfolios that have been under some stress for a number of quarters now. What we saw in the quarter was some migration from criticized classified to nonperforming, specifically in senior housing, in transportation and warehousing, transportation, specifically and office and then additionally, manufacturing of consumer discretionary items. So that is and that was our expectation.

約翰，我只想說，關於不良貸款的增加，我們已經指出了幾個季度以來一直面臨壓力的投資組合。我們在本季看到的是一些從受批評的分類轉向不良的情況，特別是在高級住房、運輸和倉儲、交通運輸、特別是辦公領域，以及非必需消費品的製造領域。這就是我們的期望。

We have 1 large technology credit that moved in the third quarter. That is episodic, we believe, is something that we can and believe we will manage through. So when you look at the migration, as we pointed out, we are moving back to more traditional sort of historical levels of nonperforming loans, which is somewhere between 80 and 100 to 110 basis points. I think maybe David said the average was 102 or 106, 107 from '14 to '19.

我們有 1 筆大型科技信貸在第三季轉移。我們相信，這是一個偶發事件，我們能夠並且相信我們能夠解決這個問題。因此，當你觀察這一遷移時，正如我們所指出的，我們正在回到更傳統的不良貸款歷史水平，即 80 至 100 至 110 個基點之間。我想大衛可能說從 14 年到 19 年平均數是 102 或 106、107。

And we've guided to 40 to 50 basis points of charge-offs, which we think is in line with our expectations for potential loss in the portfolio over time. So I think we feel we have good insight into the credits that we're managing as to why, I would say the burden of increasing interest rates, increasing cost, cost of labor, operating costs, all those things have had an impact specifically on the industries that we've historically now called out transportation, senior housing, office, consumer discretionary.

我們指導沖銷 40 到 50 個基點，我們認為這符合我們對投資組合隨著時間的推移可能出現損失的預期。因此，我認為我們對我們正在管理的信貸有很好的洞察力，我想說的是，利率上升的負擔，成本上升，勞動力成本，運營成本，所有這些因素都對我們產生了特別的影響。我們歷來稱之為交通運輸、老年住房、辦公大樓、非必需消費品的產業。

Now with respect to the allowance, we have a process we follow and go through every quarter. And I think we believe -- we currently believe, obviously, that we've provided for potential losses in the portfolio over time, unless we experienced growth in the portfolio or paydowns in the portfolio, some changes in outstandings in the portfolio or in economic conditions. You can assume that our allowance is appropriate and likely won't change -- the trajectory of it will not change unless the economy changes.

現在，關於津貼，我們有一個每季都會遵循和執行的流程。我認為，我們目前顯然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們已經為投資組合中的潛在損失做好了準備，除非我們經歷了投資組合的增長或投資組合的支付，投資組合中的未償債務或經濟狀況發生了一些變化。狀況。你可以假設我們的津貼是適當的，而且很可能不會改變——除非經濟發生變化，否則它的軌跡不會改變。

And the only other thing, John, on that would be if the risk ratings change, that go up or down, that also impacts your provisioning or release reserves. So I add that point with other 2 or 3 that John mentioned.

約翰，唯一的另一件事是，如果風險評級發生變化，無論上升或下降，這也會影響您的配置或釋放儲備。所以我將這一點與約翰提到的其他 2 或 3 點結合。

And David, I'm sorry, if I could just add regarding that last point, if the risk rating migration negatively assume -- is it now assumed as part of your outlook, just given where we are in this downturn?

大衛，我很抱歉，如果我可以補充最後一點，如果風險評級遷移負面假設——考慮到我們在這次低迷中的處境，現在是否將其視為您前景的一部分？

Yes, that's right. You look at your reasonable and forecast period and think about where the credits are going; if that changes, so to go the other way, that can cause you not to have to provide any more. So we provided what we think we need to have. If things get better, then you don't need the reserves that you put up and you can release those reserves. If things get worse, then you have to provide more.

恩，那就對了。您查看合理的預測期限，並考慮積分的去向；如果情況發生變化，那麼走另一條路，這可能會讓你不必再提供任何東西。所以我們提供了我們認為需要的東西。如果情況好轉，那麼您就不需要您投入的儲備金，並且可以釋放這些儲備金。如果事情變得更糟，那麼你必須提供更多。

Generally, loan growth is also a driver of having to add to the provision. If your loans are going the other way, then you don't need the reserves that you had set up for them, so you can have a release related to that. Economic conditions got a little better in the fourth quarter than the third. So that was a positive. But net-net, we're continuing to look at the life of the loan and where that's going to go, and we think we have appropriate reserves for losses that are there.

一般來說，貸款成長也是必須增加準備金的一個驅動因素。如果您的貸款以相反的方式進行，那麼您不需要為它們設定的準備金，因此您可以獲得與此相關的釋放。第四季的經濟狀況比第三季稍好。所以這是積極的。但總的來說，我們正在繼續關注貸款的期限以及貸款的去向，我們認為我們有適當的準備金來應對現有的損失。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

On the NII guide, I was just wondering how Slide 6 might change if we don't get those cuts you're factoring in for the year. I know you mentioned you're neutral to those, so maybe this range wouldn't change much. Just figured that might change some of the deposit flow and beta assumptions in here and maybe some other stuff.

在 NII 指南中，我只是想知道如果我們沒有得到您今年考慮的那些削減，幻燈片 6 可能會發生什麼變化。我知道你提到你對這些持中立態度，所以也許這個範圍不會改變太多。只是認為這可能會改變這裡的一些存款流量和貝塔假設，也許還有其他一些東西。

Yes. So we tried to put that in. If you look at the lower box, on the lower end of that, we say stable, that was trying to address exactly what your question is. So to the extent that we're kind of where we are.

是的。所以我們試著把它放進去。如果你看看下面的方框，在它的下端，我們說穩定，這是試圖準確地解決你的問題是什麼。所以就我們目前的情況而言。

That was all within this range.

都在這個範圍之內。

That's right. That's right.

這是正確的。這是正確的。

But the lower end?

但低端呢？

Yes.

是的。

Got you. And then for the $12 billion to $14 billion in the fixed rate loan production and securities investment you mentioned per year. I was just curious what the breakdown of that was for securities and loans and what yields you're putting on today on both the securities investment and new loan production, just on average? I know you've got many different categories and loans you're producing.

明白你了。然後是你提到的每年 120 億至 140 億美元的固定利率貸款生產和證券投資。我只是好奇證券和貸款的細分情況是什麼，以及您今天在證券投資和新貸款生產上的平均收益率是多少？我知道你們有許多不同的類別和貸款。

So I think in total, the kind of the front book back book between those 2 is about 200, 250 basis points of pickup. If you look at that 12 to 15, about 1/4 of that is related to securities. That going on as front book, back book pieces of, call it, 300 basis points in loans, front book back book of probably in the 150 to 200 range.

所以我認為總的來說，這兩者之間的前書後書大約有 200、250 個基點的提貨。如果你看這 12 到 15 個，其中大約 1/4 與證券有關。這就像前書、後書部分一樣，稱之為貸款 300 個基點，前書後書可能在 150 到 200 範圍內。

Okay. Great. And then just on capital, given your comments on 10% CET1 targeting that unadjusted. What does that mean for the pace of buybacks here? Is the fourth quarter pace a good one going forward for the next few quarters maybe? And then as it relates to your adjusted CET1 ratio, which is just over 8% you've got here, how are you thinking about where you want that to be over time as the new regs kick in?

好的。偉大的。然後就資本而言，考慮到您對未調整的 10% CET1 目標的評論。這對於回購速度意味著什麼？第四季的步伐對於接下來的幾季來說可能是一個好的進展嗎？然後，由於它與您調整後的 CET1 比率有關，您現在的 CET1 比率剛剛超過 8%，您如何考慮隨著新法規的實施，您希望該比率隨著時間的推移達到什麼水平？

Well, one, we don't know what the new rules are going to be. So we fully loaded it with A2 to show you that, that doesn't impact our stress capital buffer or our absolute minimum. We're in good shape there. We just need to see where the rules come out. By the time all that happens, AOCI is going to be in a different spot than it is today, assuming rates continue to come down a bit. We saw a pretty big move in all of the peers with AOCI this quarter. From a capital standpoint, we think 10% is the right number -- what was?

嗯，第一，我們不知道新規則是什麼。因此，我們將 A2 完全加載，以向您展示，這不會影響我們的壓力資本緩衝或絕對最小值。我們在那裡狀況良好。我們只需要看看規則從何而來。假設利率繼續略有下降，到這一切發生時，AOCI 的處境將與今天不同。本季我們看到 AOCI 的所有同業都有相當大的變動。從資本的角度來看，我們認為 10% 是正確的數字——是多少？

Buyback pace.

回購步伐。

The buyback pace. So again, we used the buyback as our last mechanism to help us keep our common equity Tier 1 in that 10% range. And so the pace is do your favorite earnings expectation take out the dividend, use a bit of that with low single-digit loan growth and then the rest is either going to be buying mortgage servicing rights or things of that nature, and then we toggle with share repurchases. So I don't want to comment on whether we stay on the pace because they end up getting your earnings guidance. That's a trick.

回購步伐。因此，我們再次使用回購作為最後一種機制來幫助我們將一級普通股保持在 10% 的範圍內。因此，步調是，你最喜歡的盈利預期是否會扣除股息，在低個位數貸款增長的情況下使用其中的一部分，然後剩下的要么購買抵押貸款服務權或類似性質的東西，然後我們切換與股票回購。因此，我不想評論我們是否保持步伐，因為他們最終會得到你的獲利指導。這是一個技巧。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Gerard Cassidy。

David, can you share with us, you guys have given us good detail on credit quality and John, you pointed out that the nonperforming loan increase was to the sectors of your portfolio that you've already identified as being weak. Could we look at it another way, and you give us good details on Slides 27 and 28 on the leveraged portfolio in the Shared National Credit portfolio, how are those portfolios holding up credit-wise? And when you think back to where we were a year ago, I remember many of the calls, the word recession was used quite often in those calls, we're not hearing that on this fourth quarter earnings call for most or nearly all the banks. So have these portfolios held up better than what you would have thought it from a year ago?

大衛，您能否與我們分享一下，您向我們提供了有關信貸質量的詳細信息，約翰，您指出不良貸款的增加是針對您已經確定為薄弱的投資組合的部門。我們能否以另一種方式看待這個問題，您向我們提供有關共享國家信貸投資組合中槓桿投資組合的幻燈片 27 和 28 的詳細信息，這些投資組合在信貸方面的表現如何？當你回想一年前的情況時，我記得許多電話會議，這些電話會議中經常使用衰退這個詞，我們在大多數或幾乎所有銀行的第四季度財報電話會議上沒有聽到這一點。那麼，這些投資組合的表現是否比您一年前的預期更好？

I would say, yes, Gerard. The leverage portfolio is largely relationship-based credit business. Those are banking relationships that we enjoy, we're close to those customers and we've been close to them throughout this period of elevated rates. There was some risk as rates rose, that we had -- that there may be some softness in the portfolio, but I think it's performed well. The same is true of our Shared National Credit book. And we began to build a capital markets business to help us grow and diversify our revenue and to meet more customer needs. We naturally then began to expand the size of our Shared National Credit book so that we could serve those customers that had need for those products and services. And with that, as you can imagine, comes some tall free risk, single name risk and while I mentioned earlier, we have a technology credit that's fairly substantial. That's an NPL.

我會說，是的，傑拉德。槓桿組合主要是基於關係的信貸業務。這些是我們喜歡的銀行關係，我們與這些客戶關係密切，並且在利率上漲的這段時期我們一直與他們保持著密切的關係。隨著利率上升，我們面臨一些風險——投資組合可能會有些疲軟，但我認為它表現良好。我們的共享國家信用簿也是如此。我們開始建立資本市場業務，以幫助我們成長收入並實現收入多元化，並滿足更多客戶的需求。然後，我們自然開始擴大共享國家信用簿的規模，以便我們能夠為那些需要這些產品和服務的客戶提供服務。正如你可以想像的那樣，隨之而來的是一些高免費風險、單一名稱風險，雖然我之前提到過，但我們擁有相當可觀的技術信用。那是不良貸款。

That is an example of Shared National Credit exposure that we have good visibility into. We think has very limited risk of loss but still as a nonperforming loan. But overall, I would say, just based upon the reflection on the performance of that book, it's been good. We've enjoyed expanding relationships, growing revenue from capital markets and/or deposits, treasury management that we enjoy with those customers. And so I think we've been pleased with the performance of both the leverage book and the Shared National Credit book.

這是我們非常了解的共享國家信用風險的一個例子。我們認為損失風險非常有限，但仍屬於不良貸款。但總的來說，我想說，僅根據對該書表現的反思，它是好的。我們與這些客戶的關係不斷擴大，來自資本市場和/或存款的收入不斷增長，資金管理也得到了改善。因此，我認為我們對槓桿帳簿和共享國家信用帳簿的表現感到滿意。

Very good. And then coming back to loans, I think, David, in your comments, you talked about loan demand remains soft and you're looking for low single-digit growth for average loans in 2024. I know during our careers, the shadow banking industry has continued its competition against the banks, but it seems today, there's more coverage of the private equity side getting into lending maybe greater than what we've seen in years, how are you guys competing against the private credit markets. And at the same time, are any of those private credit lenders, customers of yours that you have to balance that relationship of a customer competing against you.

非常好。然後回到貸款問題，大衛，在您的評論中，您談到貸款需求仍然疲軟，並且您正在尋找 2024 年平均貸款的低個位數增長。我知道在我們的職業生涯中，影子銀行業繼續與銀行競爭，但今天看來，私募股權方面進入貸款的報道可能比我們多年來看到的還要多，你們如何與私人信貸市場競爭。同時，那些私人信貸機構、您的客戶是否必須平衡與您競爭的客戶關係。

We have very modest exposure to private equity who then is -- we're not lending private equity to, in turn, lend into our customer base. So if we have any exposure, it would be very modest there. Separately, we don't see private equity as a competitor necessarily within our core middle market customer base. I asked Ronnie Smith the question the other day if he could name a customer that we lost to private credit. And we can't think of one. Now it doesn't mean it's not occurring in some of the markets that we're in. But by and large, given our focus on the core middle market business and investment-grade type Shared National Credit exposure, we're just not -- we're not seeing private credit as a competitor today. On the wholesale side now there are lots of competitors on the consumer side that we're seeing in a variety of different ways, including mortgage and home improvement that we compete with.

我們對私募股權的投資非常有限，我們不會借出私募股權來反過來借錢給我們的客戶群。因此，如果我們有任何曝光，那也是非常有限的。另外，我們也不認為私募股權公司一定是我們核心中間市場客戶群的競爭對手。有一天，我問羅尼史密斯，他能否說出我們因私人信貸而失去的一位客戶的名字。我們想不出一個。現在，這並不意味著它不會發生在我們所處的某些市場中。但總的來說，鑑於我們對核心中間市場業務和投資等級類型共享國家信用風險的關注，我們只是 - - 今天我們沒有將私人信貸視為競爭對手。在批發方面，現在在消費者方面有很多競爭對手，我們以各種不同的方式看到它們，包括我們與之競爭的抵押貸款和家居裝修。

Which are nontraditional depositories?

哪些是非傳統存款機構？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Spahr with Wells Fargo. Christopher Spahr, your line is live.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯多福‧斯帕爾 (Christopher Spahr)。 Christopher Spahr，您的路線已上線。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon King with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brandon King 和 Truist 的對話。

So I appreciate the guidance on expenses and expense control there. But I did have a question on just an update on the technology modernization project and kind of what you're baking in for expenses in 2024? And if part of that other expense savings is related to maybe delaying some of that project into further years.

所以我很欣賞那裡關於費用和費用控制的指導。但我確實有一個關於技術現代化專案更新的問題，以及你們在 2024 年準備的開支是什麼？如果其他費用節省的一部分與可能將部分項目推遲到未來幾年有關。

Yes, Brandon. So we've given you our overall expense guide to be essentially flat after you carve out operational losses from the past year. We continue to make investments in our business. We call it R2, which is our transformation project in cyber and risk management, consumer compliance, a lot of investment in areas of the bank that we're looking to offset elsewhere. R2 project has come along very well. We spent anywhere depending on the year, 9% to 11% of our revenue in terms of technology costs. We don't expect that to change materially in the short term. We continue to evaluate how we can better leverage technology and I think we have a lot of upside potential to leverage that in our business to continue to improve and to continue to take out manual steps, manual processes and have a technology solution too. So we think our investment in technology is the right thing to do and we're going to have a modern core deposit platform in the not-too-distant future, which we think will be a competitive advantage for us as well. So anyway, that's kind of a spending range, if you will, 9% to 11% for revenue.

是的，布蘭登。因此，在扣除去年的營運損失後，我們為您提供的整體費用指南基本上持平。我們繼續對我們的業務進行投資。我們稱之為 R2，這是我們在網路和風險管理、消費者合規性以及我們希望在其他領域抵消的銀行領域的大量投資方面的轉型項目。 R2 專案進展順利。根據年份的不同，我們將收入的 9% 到 11% 用於技術成本。我們預計這種情況在短期內不會發生重大變化。我們繼續評估如何更好地利用技術，我認為我們有很大的上升潛力，可以在我們的業務中利用技術來繼續改進並繼續採取手動步驟、手動流程並擁有技術解決方案。因此，我們認為我們對科技的投資是正確的事情，我們將在不久的將來擁有一個現代化的核心存款平台，我們認為這對我們來說也將是一個競爭優勢。所以無論如何，如果你願意的話，這是一個支出範圍，收入的 9% 到 11%。

Okay. And just no delays in the timing of that?

好的。而且沒有延遲時間？

Yes. No. Yes. To answer your question specifically, that project is on time and on budget, no delays.

是的。不，是的。具體回答你的問題，該專案是按時、按預算進行的，沒有任何延誤。

And then just had a follow-up on credit, and particularly in senior housing. Just wanted to get more details as far as your exposure there? And what are you thinking as far as ultimate loss content, insufficient from a credit loss [space].

然後剛剛對信貸進行了後續行動，特別是在高級住房方面。只是想了解更多有關您在那裡的曝光情況的詳細信息？就最終損失內容而言，您對信用損失[空間]的不足有何看法。

Yes. We're seeing improvement in the senior housing space, notwithstanding the fact that we have a couple of credits we're carrying as nonperforming. Generally occupancy rates are improving over time. Today, we've got about $63 million in -- I'm sorry, $57 million in -- $118 million in nonperforming loans and reserves against those credits of about 3.7%. So I think we've maybe provided information on Slide 20 in our deck. But we are seeing improvement in senior housing as occupancy rates pick up and people become a little more comfortable with communal living again amongst that age group.

是的。儘管我們有一些不良信用記錄，但我們看到老年住房空間有所改善。一般來說，入住率隨著時間的推移而提高。今天，我們有大約 6300 萬美元——抱歉，是 5700 萬美元——1.18 億美元的不良貸款和大約 3.7% 的信貸準備金。所以我認為我們可能已經在我們的幻燈片中提供了有關幻燈片 20 的資訊。但我們看到，隨著入住率的上升，以及該年齡層的人們再次對公共生活感到更加舒適，老年住宅的情況有所改善。

Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

Good morning. One follow-up question, Dave. I think very notable what you said to Ryan's line of questioning, the 3.6% exit rate for the net interest margin in the fourth quarter. A lot of investors are now focused on that exit rate. So I'm just wondering if I could ask you sort of what the component pieces is or are rather. So unless you've changed anything on the -- in terms of adding swaps, it seems like you do have $1.6 billion of notional rolling off in the fourth quarter. So I guess it's a good guy.

早安.一個後續問題，戴夫。我認為您對 Ryan 的質疑所說的話非常值得注意，第四季度淨利差為 3.6% 的退出率。許多投資者現在都關注退出率。所以我只是想知道我是否可以問你這些組成部分是什麼或更確切地說是什麼。因此，除非你在增加掉期方面做出任何改變，否則第四季度名義上的滾滾資金似乎將達到 16 億美元。所以我認為這是一個好人。

You also mentioned a terminated swap gain in your 10-Q, but you had like a forward look for 4 quarters. Wondering what that could be for 4Q '24 and then more notably, obviously, you guys have said unequivocally that it's the deposit assumption that's really going to make a difference. I'm wondering sort of what the speed is that you're assuming on that 35% down beta, especially if you think of the first rate cut, I think you said was in May.

您還在 10 季中提到了終止掉期收益，但您希望對 4 個季度進行前瞻性展望。想知道 24 年第四季會發生什麼，然後更值得注意的是，顯然，你們已經明確表示，存款假設真正會產生影響。我想知道你假設的 35% 的貝塔下調速度是多少，特別是如果你想到第一次降息，我想你說是在 5 月。

Yes. So I think all in, the big drivers there are controlling the deposit costs. We do have a headwind of the $3 billion notional for starting swap in the first quarter and then we're kind of in the run rate that the terminated swaps are in the amortization already. Those aren't huge drivers. I think after we get our headwind and if rates start to come down, then, like I said, almost 60% of our beta is associated with index deposits on the commercial side. So they'll start to come down.

是的。所以我認為總而言之，主要驅動因素是控制存款成本。我們確實遇到了第一季啟動掉期的名義 30 ​​億美元的逆風，然後我們的運行速度是終止的掉期已經在攤銷中。這些都不是巨大的驅動因素。我認為，在我們遇到逆風之後，如果利率開始下降，那麼，就像我說的，我們的貝塔值的近 60% 與商業方面的指數存款有關。所以他們會開始下降。

And you start then having the loan and security repricing, the fixed maturity repricing, adding 200, 250 basis points that overwhelms that headwind towards the back end of the year and you get a little bit of loan growth in the back end. All that helps you propel you to a much stronger fourth quarter finish than you have at the beginning of the year.

然後你開始對貸款和證券進行重新定價，即固定期限重新定價，增加 200、250 個基點，克服年底的逆風，你會在後端得到一點貸款增長。所有這些都有助於您推動第四季度的業績比年初強勁得多。

So I think if you really looked at what is the one big thing that you have to get done and it's controlling the deposit cost, and we do that through managing the beta as rates change, like I said, 55%, 60% of an index. The other is decisioning we have to make. And that gets to be a little herky jerky because, as I mentioned, some of that's money market that we can change pretty quickly. The other CDs that were locked in today, it's 7 months. And as things renew this month, next month and going forward, we're looking to be shorter rather than longer so that we are prepared to take advantage to reduce our deposit costs as rates come down.

所以我認為，如果你真正考慮到你必須完成的一件大事是什麼，那就是控制存款成本，我們透過隨著利率變化管理貝塔值來做到這一點，就像我說的，55%、60 %指數。另一個是我們必須做出的決定。這有點不穩定，因為正如我所提到的，其中一些是我們可以很快改變的貨幣市場。今天鎖定的其他CD，已經7個月了。隨著本月、下個月​​以及未來的情況更新，我們希望縮短而不是更長，以便我們準備好利用利率下降來降低存款成本。

And a follow-up to that, you mentioned 55% to 60% of that down rate coming from these indexed commercial deposits. One of your peers made a differentiation between indexed and contractual yesterday. And I guess just give us some sense of how much of that is contracted versus index? And but really, it sounds like you're confident that either way, you can control that to the downside, especially as you said, loan growth remained soft this year.

接下來，您提到 55% 到 60% 的降息來自這些指數商業存款。昨天，您的一位同行對指數型和合約型進行了區分。我想只是讓我們了解其中有多少是合約與指數的關係？但實際上，聽起來您有信心，無論哪種方式，您都可以控制下行趨勢，特別是正如您所說，今年貸款成長仍然疲軟。

Yes. So when we say index, we're talking about it's tied to Fed fund; when Fed funds changes through the contract, it changes automatically. There's no -- it's not a contractual number locked in like effectively as CD. It's the day -- just like a loan that's based on SOFR. I mean, SOFR changes, so does loan rate that day. And so that's what we're talking about when we say index deposits.

是的。因此，當我們說指數時，我們指的是它與聯邦基金掛鉤；當聯邦資金透過合約發生變化時，它會自動變化。不存在——它不是像 CD 那樣有效鎖定的合約號碼。這一天——就像基於 SOFR 的貸款一樣。我的意思是，SOFR 發生變化，當天的貸款利率也會改變。這就是我們所說的指數存款。

Our final question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Any updated thoughts on potential regulatory changes to the debit card interchange fee or overdraft fees and thinking about potential [all cuts] to that.

關於借記卡交換費或透支費的潛在監管變化的任何最新想法以及對潛在[所有削減]的考慮。

Well, so debit interchange going through a discussion to adjust that down. So it was written in the original law and they had to revisit the costs associated with debit interchange. To the extent that does get put into place, that will have a negative impact to us starting, I think that was going to be kicking in, in June. So it's about half a year. And based on our numbers, that's about a $45 million risk item to us in our NIR.

嗯，所以藉記交換正在通過討論來調整它。因此，它被寫入原始法律，他們必須重新審視與借記交換相關的成本。如果確實落實到位，這將從六月開始對我們產生負面影響，我認為這將在六月開始生效。所以也就半年左右的時間了。根據我們的數據，在 NIR 中，這對我們來說是大約 4500 萬美元的風險項目。

Relative to the overdrafts, we're a long way from knowing where that comes out, if there are any changes, and I think 2025 date that we mentioned, that just hit the wire. I think there's going to be a lot of discussion on that because we're disappointed in that we think provision of liquidity to our customer base is really, really important. We do charge a fee for that, but we're paying an item for somebody and charging a fee. And to the extent we return that item to wherever it was written or used, that entity is going to charge a fee.

相對於透支，我們距離了解透支的結果、是否有任何變化還有很長的路要走，我認為我們提到的 2025 年日期剛剛到來。我認為對此將會有很多討論，因為我們感到失望的是，我們認為向我們的客戶群提供流動性確實非常重要。我們確實為此收取費用，但我們是為某人支付商品並收取費用。如果我們將該項目返回到其書寫或使用的地方，則該實體將收取一定的費用。

And so it doesn't -- it's not helpful to not be able to provide liquidity to our customer base. And so we're hoping there's going to be further discussion on that point. And I think it would be premature to really talk about the impact of OD until we get further down the road.

所以事實並非如此——無法為我們的客戶群提供流動性是沒有幫助的。因此，我們希望能夠就這一點進行進一步的討論。我認為，在我們進一步研究之前，真正談論 OD 的影響還為時過早。

Okay. And then just separately, good to see the elevated check fraud came down as you expected and the outlook kind of implies but you're confident that you're past this issue. I guess, just wanted to reconfirm that. And then also just any meaningful changes that you made to address it and whether it showed up in expenses overall?

好的。然後，單獨地，很高興看到支票詐欺的增加如您所預期的那樣下降，前景有點暗示，但您有信心已經解決了這個問題。我想，只是想再次確認這一點。然後還有您為解決這個問題所做的任何有意義的改變以及它是否出現在總體費用中？

I would just say that the countermeasures that we put in place, which include talent, technology, process changes, all have been effective. And we believe going forward, the run rate will be $20 million to $25 million per quarter in operating losses and the expenses associated with those countermeasures are embedded in our run rate and in our projection for expenses for 2024.

我只想說，我們採取的對策，包括人才、技術、流程變革，都是有效的。我們相信，展望未來，每季的營運損失將達到 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元，與這些對策相關的費用已包含在我們的運行率和 2024 年費用預測中。

We got to continue to be vigilant with regards to this, just like we are with cyber. So we have bad people attacking us as does every financial institution, and we have to continue to stay ahead of it. We feel good about what we put in place, but we are not sitting idle. We're continuing to push and challenge ourselves to get even better than we are today.

我們必須繼續對此保持警惕，就像我們對網路保持警惕一樣。因此，就像每個金融機構一樣，我們也受到壞人的攻擊，我們必須繼續保持領先地位。我們對我們所採取的措施感到滿意，但我們並沒有閒著。我們將繼續推動和挑戰自己，以取得比今天更好的成績。

Okay. Operator, is that the end of the call?

好的。接線員，通話結束了嗎？

Yes. I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

是的。現在我想把發言權交還給您以供結束評論。

Okay. Well, thank you very much. I appreciate everybody's participation today and interest in our company. Have a good weekend.

好的。好的，謝謝。我感謝大家今天的參與以及對我們公司的興趣。有一個美好的周末。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。