Regions Financial Corp (RF) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation's quarterly earnings call.

早上好，歡迎參加地區金融公司的季度財報電話會議。

My name is Christine, and I will be your operator for today's call.

我叫克莉絲汀，我是今天電話的接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

我現在將把電話轉給達納諾蘭開始。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Welcome to Regions second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加區域 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding our results.

約翰和大衛將對我們的結果提供高水準的評論。

Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP information, are available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

收益文件，包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計準則信息，可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取。

These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments, and Q&A.

這些揭露內容包括我們的簡報資料、準備好的評論和問答。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，達納，大家早安。

We appreciate you joining our call today.

我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

This morning, we reported strong second-quarter earnings of $477 million, resulting earnings per share of $0.52. For the second quarter, total revenue remained relatively stable at $1.7 billion on a reported basis and $1.8 billion on an adjusted basis as net interest income remained resilient and fee revenue declined modestly compared to the first quarter.

今天早上，我們公佈了強勁的第二季獲利 4.77 億美元，每股收益為 0.52 美元。第二季度，總收入保持相對穩定，按報告計算為 17 億美元，按調整後為 18 億美元，因為淨利息收入保持彈性，且費用收入與第一季相比略有下降。

As expected, adjusted non-interest expenses declined quarter over quarter and are expected to remain at this approximate level for the remainder of the year.

正如預期的那樣，調整後的非利息支出逐季下降，預計今年剩餘時間將保持在這一大致水平。

Average and ending loans remain relatively stable quarter over quarter, reflecting modest customer demand, continued focus on client selectivity and paydowns in the portfolio.

平均貸款和期末貸款較上季保持相對穩定，反映出客戶需求溫和，並持續專注於客戶選擇性和投資組合的還款。

Average deposits also remain relatively stable, while ending deposits declined modestly during the quarter, consistent with seasonal tax-related patterns.

平均存款也保持相對穩定，而本季期末存款則小幅下降，與季節性稅收相關模式一致。

We experienced broad-based improvement in overall asset quality this quarter.

本季我們的整體資產品質出現了廣泛的改善。

Non-performing and business services criticized loans as well as net charge-offs improved sequentially.

不良貸款和商業服務受詬病的貸款以及淨沖銷額較上月有所改善。

In summary, we're proud of our second-quarter results driven by the successful execution of our strategic plan.

總之，我們對戰略計劃的成功執行所推動的第二季業績感到自豪。

We have a great plan.

我們有一個偉大的計劃。

And the investments we're making in talent, technology, and in products and services are positioning us to benefit as macroeconomic conditions improve.

我們在人才、技術、產品和服務方面的投資使我們能夠隨著宏觀經濟狀況的改善而受益。

Our footprint continues to provide us with significant opportunities.

我們的足跡繼續為我們提供重要的機會。

While we are experiencing more competition in our markets, our long-standing presence, commitment to communities, and the favorable brand we've built over many years positions us well.

雖然我們在市場上面臨越來越激烈的競爭，但我們的長期存在、對社群的承諾以及我們多年來建立的良好品牌使我們處於有利地位。

As always, we remain focused on execution.

一如既往，我們仍然專注於執行。

I have no doubt that we can continue generating top-quartile results.

我毫不懷疑我們可以繼續產生前四分之一的結果。

Now David will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

現在大衛將提供有關本季的一些亮點。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Let's start with the balance sheet.

讓我們從資產負債表開始。

Average and ending loans remained relatively stable on sequential quarter basis.

平均貸款和期末貸款較上季保持相對穩定。

Within the business portfolio, while average loans remained relatively stable, ending loans increased 1%.

在業務組合中，雖然平均貸款保持相對穩定，但期末貸款增加了 1%。

Despite near-term economic and political uncertainty, pipelines are beginning to rebuild.

儘管近期經濟和政治存在不確定性，但管道仍在開始重建。

Average consumer loans also remained stable as modest growth at residential mortgage and consumer credit card were offset by declines in home equity and other miscellaneous consumer loans.

平均消費貸款也保持穩定，因為住宅抵押貸款和消費信用卡的溫和增長被房屋淨值和其他雜項消費貸款的下降所抵消。

We continue to expect 2024 average loans to be stable to down modestly compared to 2023.

我們繼續預期 2024 年平均貸款將比 2023 年穩定或小幅下降。

From a deposit standpoint, deposits remained relatively stable on an average basis, while ending balances declined 2%.

從存款來看，存款平均維持相對穩定，期末餘額將下降2%。

These declines in the second quarter reflect anticipated tax seasonality.

第二季的下降反映了預期的稅收季節性。

Having largely returned to pre-pandemic patterns, we expect relative stability in deposits, which is typical for summer and early fall.

在很大程度上恢復到疫情前的模式後，我們預計存款將相對穩定，這是夏季和初秋的典型情況。

As expected, deposit remixing has slowed.

正如預期的那樣，存款混合已經放緩。

Competitive pricing and customer demand for promotional products has stabilized.

有競爭力的價格和顧客對促銷產品的需求已經穩定。

Over the second quarter, the proportion of non-interest-bearing deposits relative to total deposits has remained steady in the low 30% range.

第二季度，無息存款佔存款總額的比重穩定在30%左右。

Now let's shift to net interest income.

現在讓我們轉向淨利息收入。

Net interest income increased modestly during the quarter, now performing our expectations.

本季淨利息收入小幅成長，目前符合我們的預期。

The increase reflects stabilizing deposit trends in asset yield expansion.

這一成長反映了資產收益率擴張中存款趨勢的穩定。

Also exceeding expectations, the net interest margin declined only 4 basis points, resulting primarily from higher average cash levels.

淨利差僅下降 4 個基點，也超出預期，這主要是由於平均現金水準較高。

As expected, deposit remixing and cost increase has slowed meaningfully in the quarter.

正如預期的那樣，存款重新混合和成本增長在本季度已顯著放緩。

The full cycle, interest-bearing deposit beta remained stable at 43%.

全週期，計息存款貝塔值穩定在43%。

And we continue to expect a mid 40% deposit beta will be the peak of the cycle.

我們繼續預計 40% 的存款貝塔值將成為週期的峰值。

Asset yields benefit from the maturity in replacement of fixed rate loans and securities at current higher rate levels.

資產收益率受益於當前較高利率水準的固定利率貸款和證券的到期替代。

This includes the repositioning of approximately $1 billion of securities late in the quarter, with an estimated payback period of 2.6 years relative to the $50 million pre-tax loss recorded this quarter.

這包括在本季末重新定位約 10 億美元的證券，相對於本季記錄的 5,000 萬美元的稅前損失，預計投資回收期為 2.6 年。

Following our successful $750 million debt issuance in June, we used the proceeds to purchase a like amount of securities with a similar duration in order to maintain a relatively neutral balance sheet position and bolster liquidity.

繼 6 月成功發行 7.5 億美元債券後，我們用所得資金購買了同等數量、期限相似的證券，以保持相對中性的資產負債表狀況並增強流動性。

We believe net interest income has reached an inflection point and is expected to grow over the second half of the year as deposit trends continued to improve and the benefits of fixed rate asset turnover persists.

我們認為，隨著存款趨勢持續改善以及固定利率資產週轉的好處持續存在，淨利息收入已達到拐點，預計下半年將成長。

As we move further into 2024, a stabilizing deposit and funding environment, along with securities repositioning and favorable debt issuance levels have pushed our expectation for net interest income towards the upper end of our $4.7 billion to $4.8 billion range.

隨著我們進一步邁入 2024 年，穩定的存款和融資環境以及證券重新定位和有利的債務發行水平已將我們對淨利息收入的預期推向 47 億至 48 億美元區間的上限。

This narrow range portrays a well-protected profile under a wide array of possible economic outcomes.

這一狹窄的範圍描繪了在各種可能的經濟結果下受到良好保護的形象。

Now let's take a look at fee revenue performance this quarter.

現在讓我們來看看本季的費用收入表現。

Adjusted non-interest income declined 3%, driven primarily by lower capital markets and mortgage income.

調整後的非利息收入下降 3%，主要是由於資本市場和抵押貸款收入下降。

If you recall, capital markets experienced seasonally elevated activity in the first quarter as several deals were push from the fourth quarter of 2023.

如果你還記得的話，由於從 2023 年第四季開始推出了幾筆交易，資本市場在第一季經歷了季節性活躍。

Overtime and in a more favorable interest rate environment, we expect our capital markets business can consistently generate cash quarterly revenue of approximately $100 million.

隨著時間的推移，在更有利的利率環境下，我們預計我們的資本市場業務將持續產生約 1 億美元的現金季度收入。

But in the near term, we expect that we'll wrap around $70 million to $80 million per quarter.

但在短期內，我們預計每季營收將達到 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元左右。

The decline in mortgage income was primarily driven by positive $6 million adjustment to the company's mortgage pipeline valuation in the first quarter that did not repeat.

抵押貸款收入下降的主要原因是第一季公司抵押貸款管道估值進行了 600 萬美元的正調整，但這項調整併未重複。

While modestly lower versus the seasonally high first quarter, treasury management continues to perform exceptionally well.

儘管與第一季的季節性高點相比略有下降，但資金管理仍然表現異常出色。

Versus the second quarter of last year, treasury management client base has increased 6%, while total revenue was up 8%,

與去年第二季相比，資金管理客戶群成長了 6%，而總收入成長了 8%，

Helping to offset this quarter's fee income declines, wealth management increased 3% to a new quarterly record, reflecting increased sales activity and stronger markets.

財富管理業務成長 3%，創下新的季度記錄，反映了銷售活動的增加和市場的走強，有助於抵消本季費用收入的下降。

Based on a strong first half of the year, we now expect full year 2024 adjusted non-interest income to be at the top end of our $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion.

基於今年上半年的強勁表現，我們現在預計 2024 年全年調整後非利息收入將達到 23 億至 24 億美元的上限。

Let's move on to non-interest expense.

讓我們繼續討論非利息支出。

Adjusted non-interest expense decreased 6% compared to the prior quarter, driven primarily by lower salaries and benefits, occupancy and professional fees.

調整後的非利息支出與上一季相比下降了 6%，這主要是由於薪資和福利、入住率和專業費用下降。

They have proven that salaries and benefits was attributable primarily to lower base salaries and seasonally higher HR-related expenses in the first quarter.

他們已經證明，工資和福利主要歸因於第一季基本工資較低和人力資源相關費用季節性較高。

Operational losses also decreased during the quarter, and current activity continues to normalize within expected levels.

本季營運損失也有所減少，目前活動持續在預期水準內正常化。

We continue to expect full year 2024 operational losses to be approximately $100 million.

我們仍預計 2024 年全年營運虧損約為 1 億美元。

We remain committed to prudently managing expenses to fund investments in our business.

我們仍然致力於審慎管理費用，為我們的業務投資提供資金。

We will continue focusing on our largest expense categories, which include salaries and benefits, occupancy and vendor spend.

我們將繼續關注最大的支出類別，包括薪資和福利、入住率和供應商支出。

Based on results through the first half of the year, including outperformance in revenue and our expectation to be towards the top end of our previously provided full year revenue ranges, we now expect full year 2024 adjusted non-interest expenses to be between $4.15 billion and $4.2 billion.

根據上半年的業績，包括收入的優異表現以及我們對達到之前提供的全年收入範圍上限的預期，我們現在預計 2024 年全年調整後的非利息支出將在 41.5 億美元至 41.5 億美元之間42億美元。

Regarding asset quality, as John indicated, overall credit performance improved during the quarter.

關於資產質量，正如約翰指出的那樣，本季整體信貸表現有所改善。

Provision expense was essentially equal to net charge-offs at $102 million, and the resulting allowance for credit loss ratio remained relatively stable at 1.78%.

撥備支出基本上等於淨沖銷1.02億美元，所產生的信貸損失準備率維持相對穩定，為1.78%。

We expect full year 2024 net charge-offs to be towards the upper end of our 40 to 50 basis point range, attributable to a few large credits within our higher risk portfolios.

我們預計 2024 年全年淨沖銷將接近 40 至 50 個基點範圍的上限，這歸因於我們較高風險投資組合中的一些大額信貸。

However, those losses are fully reserved for.

然而，這些損失是完全保留的。

Assuming stable loan balances and a relatively stable economic outlook, we expect our ACL ratio to remain flat to declining over the second half of the year.

假設貸款餘額穩定且經濟前景相對穩定，我們預期下半年 ACL 比率將持平或下降。

Let's turn to capital and liquidity.

讓我們轉向資本和流動性。

We ended the quarter with an estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.4%, while executing $87 million in share repurchases and $220 million in common dividends during the quarter.

本季末，我們預計普通股一級資本比率為 10.4%，同時執行了 8,700 萬美元的股票回購和 2.2 億美元的普通股股息。

Earlier this week, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly common stock dividend of $0.25 per share, a 4% increase over the second quarter.

本週早些時候，董事會宣布季度普通股股息為每股 0.25 美元，比第二季增加 4%。

This increase is in addition to the 20% increase last year, representing three consecutive years of robust dividend and growth, well supported by underlying financial performance.

此次成長是在去年 20% 的基礎上增加的，代表著連續三年強勁的股息和成長，並得到了基本財務業績的有力支持。

Additionally, we received notification of our supervisory capital stress test results, including the preliminary stress capital buffer, which will remain at 2.5% for the fourth quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025.

此外，我們也收到了監管資本壓力測試結果的通知，包括初步壓力資本緩衝，2024 年第四季至 2025 年第三季將維持在 2.5%。

We expect to maintain our common equity Tier 1 ratio consistent with current levels over the near term.

我們預計短期內將普通股一級資本比率維持在目前水準。

This level will provide sufficient flexibility to meet proposed regulatory changes along the implementation timeline while supporting strategic growth objectives and allowing us to continue to increase the dividend and repurchase the shares commensurate with earnings.

這一水準將提供足夠的靈活性，以滿足實施時間表上擬議的監管變化，同時支持戰略成長目標，並使我們能夠繼續增加股息併回購與收益相稱的股票。

With that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

這樣，我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Ryan Nash，高盛。

Maybe just walk through some of the key drivers of the updated NII guidance.

也許只需瀏覽一下更新後的 NII 指南的一些關鍵驅動因素。

You're expecting some nice growth in the second half.

您預計下半年會出現一些不錯的成長。

And given that the Fed cuts won't be a material driver, maybe just talk a little bit about the magnitude of the growth that you're expecting.

鑑於聯準會降息不會成為實質推動因素，也許只需談談您預期的成長幅度。

And can you maintain that pace beyond the second half?

下半場之後你能保持這樣的節奏嗎？

And what does all this mean for where you think the margin can head over the medium term?

這一切對於您認為中期內利潤率的走向意味著什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So as we had mentioned last quarter, we are neutral to short term rates.

正如我們上季度提到的，我們對短期利率持中性態度。

And so the benefit that we see for this quarter and going forward is how we controlled our deposit cost, or interest-bearing costs were up three basis points.

因此，我們在本季和未來看到的好處是我們如何控制存款成本，或計息成本上升了三個基點。

So the front-book, back-book benefit that we're getting is when you add securities and loan is about call the 175 basis points, is now overwhelming the change in deposit costs.

因此，當您添加證券和貸款大約 175 個基點時，我們獲得的前期、後期收益現在已經壓倒了存款成本的變化。

And we expect that to continue for the rest of the year.

我們預計這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。

So we don't really need any cuts to help that.

所以我們真的不需要任何削減來幫助實現這一點。

If we get them, we get them; but we're neutral to that.

如果我們得到它們，我們就得到它們；但我們對此持中立態度。

So we think the driver really going forward, in addition to what I just mentioned will be balance sheet growth.

因此，我們認為，除了我剛才提到的之外，真正的推動因素將是資產負債表的成長。

And so we think that can help us continue to grow NII.

因此，我們認為這可以幫助我們繼續發展 NII。

I mean, when you look at all that, we feel comfortable saying we'd be at the upper end of our range.

我的意思是，當你看到這一切時，我們可以放心地說我們已經處於範圍的上限。

We also did a repositioning trade, and that'll help us march towards the upper end as well.

我們也進行了重新定位交易，這也將幫助我們邁向高端。

So we think we're in pretty good shape.

所以我們認為我們的狀態非常好。

We get a little bit loan growth to the back half of the year sets us up nicely for 2025.

今年下半年我們的貸款略有成長，這為我們為 2025 年做好了良好的準備。

Got it.

知道了。

Maybe as a follow up on the expenses, the increase in expenses being somewhat commensurate with the increase in revenue.

也許作為支出的後續，支出的增加與收入的增加有些相稱。

So can you maybe just parse out how much of the increase in expenses was driven by better revenues?

那麼，您能否分析一下，支出增加有多少是由收入增加所推動的？

And is there may be a pull-forward of some expenses from next year in order to reposition you for improved positive operating leverage?

是否可能會從明年開始推遲一些費用，以便重新定位以提高積極的營運槓桿？

Really, it's the increase attributable to the expected increase in revenue, both NII and NIR that you mentioned.

實際上，這是由於您提到的 NII 和 NIR 預期收入增長而導致的增長。

Our expectations for that for the year have been at the upper end of our ranges, the best primary driver.

我們對今年的預期一直處於我們範圍的上限，即最好的主要驅動力。

Also impacting the full year, we have about $20 million in expenses associated with market value adjustments on HR assets.

同樣影響全年的是，我們有大約 2000 萬美元的與人力資源資產市場價值調整相關的費用。

And so that is what it is.

事情就是這樣。

We'll see if that reverses or not.

我們將看看情況是否會逆轉。

And to a lesser extent, we experienced some modest incremental increases in the first half of the year, and the opportunities to offset that aren't likely.

在較小程度上，我們在今年上半年經歷了一些溫和的增量成長，並且不太可能有機會抵消這一增長。

So it's important when you consider all this revenue and expense that we are firmly committed to generating positive operating leverage so the back half of 2024.

因此，考慮到所有這些收入和支出，我們堅定地致力於在 2024 年下半年產生積極的營運槓桿，這一點很重要。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I was hoping maybe you could talk a little, if you could please speak to -- because of the competitive backdrop for commercial lending, I mean, it seems like it's tough everywhere.

我希望您能談談，如果您可以的話，因為商業貸款的競爭背景，我的意思是，似乎到處都很難。

But it seems like everyone appropriately wants to be in the Southeast, so maybe just the overall competitive landscape. and then maybe if you also please highlight, in your own words, the thoughts what it would take to generate better commercial loan demand at this point?

但似乎每個人都想進入東南部，所以也許只是整體競爭格局。然後也許您也請用自己的話來說，在這一點上如何產生更好的商業貸款需求？

So it is competitive.

所以它是有競爭力的。

You're right.

你說得對。

We're in great markets.

我們處於龐大的市場。

We talk about that a lot.

我們談了很多。

And as a result to that, we're seeing more and more competition.

因此，我們看到競爭越來越激烈。

We think we're competing well.

我們認為我們競爭得很好。

We believe our business is largely about the quality of our people.

我們相信我們的業務很大程度上取決於員工的品質。

The execution of our plan, providing unique ideas and solutions to customers, those things differentiate us.

執行我們的計劃，為客戶提供獨特的想法和解決方案，這些使我們與眾不同。

And fundamentally, in our business, we think is about talent.

從根本上說，在我們的業務中，我們認為人才是關鍵。

We continue to recruit across our markets, and they're having some good success.

我們繼續在各個市場進行招聘，他們取得了一些良好的成功。

Doing that, as a result, we're seeing nice growth in our commercial middle market business, offset by declines in some of our specialized industries groups and investor real estate as you might imagine that those portfolios paydown.

因此，我們看到商業中間市場業務的良好成長，被我們的一些專業行業集團和投資者房地產的下降所抵消，正如你可能想像的那樣，這些投資組合得到了回報。

But all in all, activity is still somewhat muted.

但總而言之，活動仍有些冷淡。

Customers remain cautious, given some concern about inflation cost, the political environment, just general uncertainty.

考慮到通膨成本、政治環境以及普遍的不確定性，客戶保持謹慎態度。

But activity is improving.

但活動正在改善。

Pipelines are stronger than they were a year ago, certainly, stronger than they were two quarters ago.

當然，管道比一年前更強大，比兩個季度前更強大。

And so we're not projecting much loan growth for this year.

因此，我們預計今年的貸款成長不會太多。

We do believe that there is, and we would expect in 2025, I think, to likely see economic activity pickup reflected by the increase in activity in our pipelines.

我們確實相信，並且預計到 2025 年，我們的管道活動的增加可能會反映出經濟活動的回升。

So yes, it is competitive.

所以是的，它是有競爭力的。

We think we're competing effectively largely because of the quality of the teams that we continue to build and the long-term relationships that we enjoy, and we'll continue to focus on that.

我們認為我們之所以能夠有效競爭，很大程度上是因為我們不斷建立的團隊的品質以及我們所享有的長期關係，我們將繼續關注這一點。

Okay, perfect.

好的，完美。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then, David, just a quick one for you.

然後，大衛，請簡單介紹一下。

You've done a couple of these incremental balance sheet repositioning, which have been great, especially as it helped to push up the NII expectations through the year.

你們已經完成了幾次增量資產負債表重新定位，這非常棒，特別是因為它有助於推高全年的國家資訊基礎設施預期。

I think you speak in the deck to opportunities for further ones.

我認為你在演講中談到了進一步的機會。

Maybe if you could just them helped put a frame of reference.

也許如果你能幫助他們建立一個參考框架的話。

Would we look at similar or better to have ones like this?

我們會考慮類似的還是更好的這樣的？

What would be the size of the opportunities, et cetera?

機會有多大等等？

Yes, I think -- so we continue to look for opportunities like this for good use of capital.

是的，我認為 - 所以我們繼續尋找這樣的機會來充分利用資本。

We've got our cap ratio where we needed it to be.

我們的上限比率已達到我們需要的水平。

So to the extent we can use our capital accretion through earnings for something like this, it would be good to do.

因此，如果我們可以透過收益來利用我們的資本增值來做這樣的事情，那就太好了。

And this is about the size.

這是關於尺寸的。

This is probably the biggest you would see from us in that 10% range of earnings.

這可能是您在我們 10% 的收益範圍內看到的最大收益。

So we like to take opportunities to do this when our payback period is fairly tight.

因此，當我們的投資回收期相當緊張時，我們喜歡抓住機會這樣做。

We'd like three years.

我們想要三年。

And then this one, the person was 2.1 year payback period, this one was 2.6. And so if we could get an opportunity to do something in that three and then we might do that.

然後這個人的投資回收期是2.1年，這個人是2.6年。因此，如果我們有機會在這三個方面做一些事情，那麼我們可能會這樣做。

We may take advantage of that.

我們可以利用這一點。

The curve continues to steepen, and that really gives us an opportunity to take advantage of it as well.

曲線繼續陡峭，這確實給了我們一個利用它的機會。

Perfect.

完美的。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, guys, for taking the questions.

謝謝你們提出問題。

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

Question on the deposit side.

關於存款方面的問題。

Just I think the plus 3 basis points on the interest-bearing cost was better a lot lower than people thought.

只是我認為加3個基點的生息成本比人們想像的低很多。

Just wondering if you can talk us through what you're seeing underneath there in terms of where you're continuing to see some back of catch-up and where you're starting to see the ability to change price and how you build that into that forward expectation?

只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您所看到的情況，即您在哪裡繼續看到一些追趕的情況，在哪裡開始看到改變價格的能力以及如何將其構建到其中那個前瞻性的期望？

Yes.

是的。

So our [view] at the beta is 43%.

所以我們對 Beta 版的看法是 43%。

We said we'd be in the middle 40%, so call it 43% to 45%.

我們說過我們會處於中間 40%，所以稱之為 43% 到 45%。

We feel confident in that because we understand our customer base.

我們對此充滿信心，因為我們了解我們的客戶群。

There still with some remixing going on.

仍然有一些混音正在進行。

But because the industry didn't have a lot of loan growth of demand, the aggressive competition for deposits just has not been there.

但由於該行業並沒有大量的貸款需求成長，因此對存款的激烈競爭尚未出現。

And we have to be competitive with our deposit rates, and we think we are.

我們的存款利率必須具有競爭力，我們認為我們確實做到了。

We've been very short on things like CDs to take advantage of when we think right rates may actually go the other way.

當我們認為正確的利率實際上可能會走向相反的方向時，我們一直缺乏像 CD 這樣的東西來利用。

So we have a lot of confidence that may tick up deposit cost, may tick up depending on how the mix shift happens, continuing to grow core checking accounts, and operating account is really important to us.

因此，我們有很大的信心，存款成本可能會上升，可能會上升，這取決於混合轉變的發生方式，繼續增加核心支票帳戶，而營運帳戶對我們來說非常重要。

And as a result, I don't think you see a major change in our deposit costs.

因此，我認為您不會看到我們的存款成本發生重大變化。

And therefore, our cumulative beta in that 45% range I think is important.

因此，我認為 45% 範圍內的累積貝塔值很重要。

Yes.

是的。

Okay, cool.

好吧，酷。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a follow-up on just credit.

然後只是信用的後續行動。

Great to see the NPAs come down and also understanding your point about the few couple of credits that are fully reserved for.

很高興看到 NPA 下降，也理解你關於完全保留的幾個學分的觀點。

Can you just flush out your just general thoughts on just how asset quality feels, what you're seeing in underlying migration, and anything that you're still just watching out underneath the surface for the most?

您能否簡單地闡述一下您對資產品質感覺如何、您在潛在遷移中看到的情況以及您仍然在表面下最關注的任何事情的一般想法？

Sure.

當然。

Yes.

是的。

So we've indicated I guess for a couple of quarters that we thought our credit metrics would likely to peak in the second quarter.

因此，我們已經表示，我想在幾個季度中，我們認為我們的信用指標可能會在第二季達到頂峰。

And I think that's proven to be true.

我認為這已被證明是正確的。

We've highlighted a couple of industries that we've been concerned about now for, again, a couple of quarters.

我們再次強調了幾個季度以來我們一直在關注的幾個行業。

That's obviously off -- or asset classes, office, senior housing, transportation, manufacturing of commercial non-durables information or areas that we are following.

這顯然是不對的——或者資產類別、辦公室、高級住房、交通、商業非耐用品資訊或我們正在關注的領域的製造。

That the particular portfolio where we think there's been some systemic impact, specifically office transportation, the senior housing.

我們認為特定的投資組合會產生一些系統性影響，特別是辦公室交通和高級住房。

Senior housing seems to be improving.

老年住房似乎正在改善。

Transportation still in a recession, particularly for those smaller transportation companies that are operating in the spot market, but that may be improving modestly as well.

運輸業仍處於衰退之中，特別是對於那些在現貨市場運營的小型運輸公司而言，但情況也可能略有改善。

Office, we're still working through really credit by credit.

辦公室，我們仍在逐筆努力。

And we talked about office, we have 101 credits, and about 40% of those are -- they're single tenant.

我們談到了辦公室，我們有 101 個積分，其中大約 40% 是——他們是單身租戶。

So we're really working on about 60 to 70 relationships.

所以我們實際上正在處理大約 60 到 70 個關係。

They are multi-tenant.

他們是多租戶的。

We think we have a good handle on that exposure, and we're continuing to work through that.

我們認為我們已經很好地處理了這種風險，並且我們正在繼續努力解決這個問題。

With respect to our guidance, our non-performing loans are centered in 20 credits that represent about 72% of our total non-performing loans.

根據我們的指引，我們的不良貸款集中在 20 個信貸領域，約佔不良貸款總額的 72%。

Five of those are office related.

其中五個與辦公室相關。

And in every case, we're working with the customer.

在任何情況下，我們都會與客戶合作。

In some instances, we're adding collateral to support the credit.

在某些情況下，我們會添加抵押品來支持信貸。

We may be getting some additional tenant improvement money.

我們可能會獲得一些額外的租戶改善資金。

We've got, I think, a pretty good approach to resolving the credits.

我認為，我們有一個很好的方法來解決學分問題。

We know -- we believe we are well reserved.

我們知道－我們相信我們是有保留的。

Just as a point, we've been asked about our allowance.

順便說一句，我們被問及我們的津貼。

Allowance against our multi-tenant book is about 9.6%.

我們的多租戶帳簿的津貼約為 9.6%。

Total allowance against our office booked, 6.4. So we feel like we're adequately reserved against the portfolio, and we just have to continue to work through them.

我們辦公室預訂的總津貼，6.4。因此，我們覺得我們對投資組合有足夠的保留，我們只需要繼續解決它們。

So our guide is charge-offs toward the upper end of a 40 to 50 basis point range.

因此，我們的指導方針是沖銷 40 至 50 個基點範圍的上限。

That reflects the fact that we do have some large exposures.

這反映出我們確實擁有一些大量風險敞口的事實。

The issue is we can't predict the timing.

問題是我們無法預測時間。

And so we'll expect these things will get resolved over the next two quarters that may or may not, but we continue to work on it.

因此，我們預計這些問題將在接下來的兩個季度中解決，可能會也可能不會，但我們會繼續努力。

Otherwise, the level of downgrades than upgrades is common in the equilibrium, which in the cage again that we think we've reached a point of some stabilization.

否則，降級水準比升級水準在均衡中很常見，這再次表明我們認為我們已經達到了某種穩定點。

And our credit metrics should potentially see it go a little higher, go little lower.

我們的信用指標可能會稍微高一點，低一點。

They will ebb and flow, but we think we've reached a point of stability.

它們會潮起潮落，但我們認為我們已經達到了穩定點。

Does that complete your question?

這完成了你的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Following up on Ken's questions on deposits.

跟進肯關於存款的問題。

You're telling us -- and you've always had a good view of (technical difficulty) and you know your consumer (technical difficulty) very well.

你告訴我們——你一直對（技術難度）有很好的看法，並且你非常了解你的消費者（技術難度）。

I'm wondering as we contemplate these rate cuts, how we should expect deposit balances to behave and then what the betas could look like?

我想知道，當我們考慮降息時，我們應該預期存款餘額會如何表現，然後貝塔值會是什麼樣子？

And David, if you could break it down in terms of how you expect the betas in the commercial versus betas for consumer and also the (technical difficulty) as well.

大衛，如果你能根據你對商業測試版與消費者測試版的預期以及（技術難度）的預期進行分解。

Erika, you broke up a little there, but I think it's what do we think betas will look like as rates come down.

艾莉卡，你在那裡分手了一點，但我認為這就是我們認為隨著利率下降貝塔會是什麼樣子。

So we do have a schedule in our investor deck.

所以我們的投資者甲板上確實有一個時間表。

It's a good one for everybody to look at.

是一部不錯的作品，值得大家看看。

It's on page 18.

這是第 18 頁。

And so we really have three buckets of deposits, if you will, with different beta assumptions in all three of these buckets.

因此，如果你願意的話，我們確實擁有三桶存款，並且在所有這三個桶中都有不同的貝塔假設。

So in general, we expect a mid-30% down rate beta.

因此，總的來說，我們預計 Beta 下調率為 30% 左右。

And so if you think about 35% of those accounts reprice with the market so they're tied to an index or their short-term CDs.

因此，如果您考慮這些帳戶中 35% 的帳戶會根據市場重新定價，以便它們與指數或短期 CD 掛鉤。

So we kept our tenors fairly short, call it, five months.

所以我們的期限相當短，稱為五個月。

So that as rates came down, we would have a chance to reprice that.

因此，隨著利率下降，我們將有機會重新定價。

And then the beta for those is somewhere between 80% and 100%.

這些的 Beta 值介於 80% 到 100% 之間。

If you go to the other end of the spectrum, we had about 46% of our deposit base.

如果你從另一個角度來看，我們的存款基礎約為 46%。

It was low beta, low cost, never moved up, probably not going to move down.

它的貝塔係數低，成本低，從未上升，可能也不會下降。

And so that beta is going to be very low, because it never actually increased.

因此，貝塔值將非常低，因為它實際上從未增加。

And we have about 19% that’s in the middle that we think is, call it, 20% to 30% beta.

我們大約有 19% 處於中間位置，我們認為這就是 20% 到 30% 的貝塔值。

And so we structured our deposit book to really take advantage of rates as they come down.

因此，我們建立了存款簿，以真正利用利率下降的優勢。

And we’re only factoring in, even though on the up rates, we had 45% beta, as I mentioned earlier.

正如我之前提到的，我們只考慮了 45% 的貝塔值，儘管在成長率上。

We've only factored in our guidance to have 30% as down rate.

我們僅將 30% 的降價率納入指引。

It could be better than that but the 30% comes from that math that I just walked you through, which again is on Page 18 of our Investor Day.

它可能比這更好，但 30% 來自我剛剛向您介紹的數學，這又出現在我們投資者日的第 18 頁上。

And it's been a while since we've had a level where we stopped at when there has been an easing cycle that's above zero.

我們已經有一段時間沒有達到一個高於零的寬鬆週期的水平了。

And historically as we -- and I'm sure everybody's thinking about this as they're seeing through 2025 net interest income.

從歷史上看，我相信每個人在展望 2025 年淨利息收入時都會考慮這一點。

Historically, where do you price relative to Fed funds?

從歷史上看，相對於聯邦基金，您的定價是多少？

Do you price it -- if Fed funds ends up being at 3.50%, 3.75%, are you usually 50% of that in terms of where your deposit costs set up settle out?

你會定價嗎？

Is it better, is it worse?

是更好了，還是更差了？

I'm just trying to think about -- obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty as to what the ultimate rate path is going to be.

我只是想思考——顯然，最終的利率路徑存在著許多不確定性。

But obviously, we need help because we haven't had an easing cycle that didn't end at zero for some time.

但顯然，我們需要幫助，因為一段時間以來我們還沒有出現過不以零結束的寬鬆週期。

Yes, I think a little more globally and in terms of fed funds and where do you think terminal fed funds are going to be 2.5% to 3% is our best guess.

是的，我認為在全球範圍內以及聯邦基金方面，您認為終端聯邦基金的利率將在 2.5% 至 3% 之間，這是我們的最佳猜測。

When we get there?

我們什麼時候到達那裡？

Who knows.

誰知道。

And in that, with a normal yield curve where Fed funds are 2.5% to 3%, our balance sheet structured to have a margin that's going to be in the 3.75% range to maybe 3.80%.

在這一點上，在聯邦基金為 2.5% 至 3% 的正常殖利率曲線下，我們的資產負債表結構的利潤率將在 3.75% 至 3.80% 的範圍內。

And so that's our expectation.

這就是我們的期望。

We think as rates start to get cut from here and we have a normalizing or less inverted yield curve then our margin can pick up.

我們認為，隨著利率從這裡開始下調，並且殖利率曲線正常化或倒掛程度減少，那麼我們的利潤率就會上升。

We said we'd exit at 3.50% and then we should start to climb as our managed risk partners should start to increase a bit as we go through 2025 and beyond.

我們說過我們將以 3.50% 的利率退出，然後我們應該開始攀升，因為我們的管理風險合作夥伴應該在 2025 年及以後開始增加。

But the steady state for us would be 3.75% to 3.80% with the fed funds that's 2.5% to 3%.

但我們的穩定狀態為 3.75% 至 3.80%，而聯邦基金則為 2.5% 至 3%。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

I guess maybe, David, just looking at the slide 18 with the historical net charge-offs, is it safe to conclude that absent recession 50 basis points of charge-offs should be the high end in a non-recessionary environment?

David，我想，只要看看投影片 18 中的歷史淨沖銷，是否就可以得出這樣的結論：在沒有經濟衰退的情況下，50 個基點的沖銷應該是非衰退環境中的高端？

I understand any given quarter can move around.

我知道任何特定的季度都可以變動。

But generally, is there any reason why charge-offs could be elevated even in a non-recession going forward than what we've seen, I guess, over the last 10, 11 years?

但總體而言，即使在未來非經濟衰退的情況下，沖銷額也可能比我們過去 10 年、11 年所看到的更高，是否有任何原因？

I mean, we don't believe so, Ebrahim.

我的意思是，我們不這麼認為，易卜拉欣。

We have had a little change in the composition of our loan portfolio, since the pre-COVID timeframe.

自新冠疫情爆發之前以來，我們的貸款組合組成發生了一些變化。

We acquired Ascentium Capital.

我們收購了 Ascentium Capital。

We've acquired EnerBank.

我們收購了 EnerBank。

We believe we have a good handle on what those relative charge-offs or the contribution to charge-offs will be, but we're observing that, obviously, as we operate those companies.

我們相信，我們對這些相對沖銷或對沖銷的貢獻有很好的把握，但顯然，我們在經營這些公司時正在觀察這一點。

We have grown our presence in the corporate banking space.

我們擴大了在企業銀行領域的影響力。

So as we've talked about before, we are taking some larger exposures, that's intentional, helps us as we think about growing our capital markets business being more important to customers.

因此，正如我們之前談到的，我們正在進行一些更大的風險敞口，這是有意的，有助於我們考慮發展對客戶更重要的資本市場業務。

And so from time to time, as you acknowledge, we could have a large charge-off that would impact the numbers.

因此，正如您所承認的，我們有時可能會進行大量沖銷，從而影響數字。

But generally, we believe based on all our observations that the 40 to 50 basis point range is historically appropriate and where we should operate over time.

但總的來說，根據我們的所有觀察，我們認為 40 至 50 個基點範圍在歷史上是合適的，也是我們隨著時間的推移應該進行操作的範圍。

Similarly, non-performing loans somewhere between 80 and 100 basis points is a reasonable range.

同樣，不良貸款在 80 到 100 個基點之間是一個合理的範圍。

We may be a little higher -- a little lower from time to time, I wouldn't expect us frankly to be much higher.

我們可能會高一點——有時會低一點，坦白說，我不認為我們會高很多。

But that's our view of what our credit metrics will look like given the composition of the portfolios that we currently have.

但這是我們對信用指標的看法，考慮到我們目前擁有的投資組合的組成。

That's good color, John.

這顏色真好，約翰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I guess, I think I heard you say in your prepared remarks that lending pipelines are beginning to pick up.

我想，我想我聽到你在準備好的演講中說，貸款管道正在開始增加。

Give us a sense like do we need rate cuts for that pipelines to begin to translate, or do we need to get through the elections in order to get things going?

讓我們有一種感覺，例如我們是否需要降息才能使這些管道開始轉化，或者我們是否需要透過選舉才能讓事情順利進行？

Like what would be the driver to get customers off the sidelines start borrowing?

例如，什麼因素會促使客戶不再觀望並開始借貸？

And also give us a sense of just from an often standpoint where is the bank hiring?

從通常的角度來看，也讓我們了解銀行在哪裡招募？

Obviously, there's a lot going on across your markets competitively.

顯然，您所在的市場競爭激烈。

Yes, where are we investing in terms of branches or hiring of bankers, et cetera?

是的，我們在哪裡投資分行或僱用銀行家等？

That would be helpful.

那會有幫助的。

So maybe I'll work backwards.

所以也許我會向後工作。

We're investing in markets like Atlanta, Nashville, Houston, Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, where we either have had a significant presence over time and see an opportunity to grow or have made investment like in Houston.

我們正在投資亞特蘭大、納許維爾、休士頓、達拉斯、奧蘭多、坦帕等市場，隨著時間的推移，我們要么在這些市場佔有重要地位，並看到了成長的機會，要么像在休士頓那樣進行了投資。

And so the first three or four markets, we've been there for some time.

因此，在前三、四個市場，我們已經在那裡待了一段時間了。

We have a strong presence.

我們擁有強大的影響力。

We're continuing to build on that.

我們將繼續以此為基礎。

Markets like Houston and Dallas, we're making investments to grow and see real opportunity there.

在休士頓和達拉斯等市場，我們正在進行投資以實現成長並在那裡看到真正的機會。

With respect to your question about pipelines I think I'm trying to remember the question now.

關於你關於管道的問題，我想我現在正在努力記住這個問題。

Let's see.

讓我們來看看。

Somebody help me.

來人幫幫我。

Yes.

是的。

What would be the catalyst for like when you talk, speak to your customers, pipelines are building.

當你與客戶交談時，管道正在建設中，什麼會成為催化劑。

Is it rate cuts, is it

是降息還是降息

--?

——？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

So I think, eliminating uncertainty, but cost is the bigger issue.

所以我認為，消除不確定性，但成本是更大的問題。

I spent some time this week talking to one of our customers who is a large supplier of construction materials and he indicated that they're getting a lot of requests for bids, they're completing a lot of bids, but they're not seeing a lot of work awarded.

這週我花了一些時間與我們的一位客戶交談，他是一家大型建築材料供應商，他表示他們收到了很多投標請求，他們正在完成很多投標，但他們沒有看到授予了很多工作。

And I think that's consistent with the fact that costs are still high, whether it’d be interest cost, labor cost, cost of materials.

我認為這與成本仍然很高的事實是一致的，無論是利息成本、勞動成本還是材料成本。

And it is costs that make things somewhat uneconomic or create more risk than customers are comfortable with.

正是成本使事情變得有些不經濟，或造成的風險超出了客戶的承受範圍。

And so, I think we need to continue to see adjustments in pricing.

因此，我認為我們需要繼續看到定價調整。

At the same time, I expect that our customers will continue to adjust their operations to accommodate changes in pricing.

同時，我預計我們的客戶將繼續調整其營運以適應定價的變化。

I think that's the bigger factor.

我認為這是更大的因素。

The election probably has some impact on just uncertainty overall as do the broader geopolitical events that are occurring.

這次選舉可能會對整體的不確定性產生一些影響，就像正在發生的更廣泛的地緣政治事件一樣。

But I believe it's probably more likely interest rates and costs will be the catalyst as those things come down for more economic activity.

但我相信利率和成本更有可能成為催化劑，因為這些因素的下降會帶來更多的經濟活動。

That's helpful, John.

這很有幫助，約翰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Just on the expenses, the guidance towards the upper end of the range, is that just because the fees are coming in higher or anything else in terms of like increased investment spend to top that off as well?

僅就費用而言，對範圍上限的指導，僅僅是因為費用增加還是因為投資支出增加等其他原因？

As I mentioned earlier, the increase is largely attributable to the expected increase in revenue both from a net interest income and non-interest revenue standpoint.

正如我之前提到的，這一增長主要歸因於淨利息收入和非利息收入的預期收入成長。

And we also had $20 million in expenses associated with the market value adjustments on HR related assets, that was a piece.

我們還有 2000 萬美元與人力資源相關資產的市場價值調整相關的費用，這是其中的一部分。

And to a lesser extent, we've experienced some modest incremental increases in the first half of the year, and opportunities to offset that just aren't likely.

在較小程度上，我們在今年上半年經歷了一些溫和的增量成長，並且不太可能有機會抵消這種成長。

However, as I mentioned earlier, we are committed to generating positive operating leverage in the second half of this year.

然而，正如我之前提到的，我們致力於在今年下半年產生積極的營運槓桿。

And then as you look out a little bit longer term, I'm not trying to pin you down '25, but just call it like the medium term the next couple of years.

然後，當你展望更長遠的時候，我並不是想把你固定在 25 年，而是稱它為未來幾年的中期。

What do you think is a good underlying expense growth as we think about some of the positives you mentioned before like loan growth picking up, maybe the higher capital markets run rate?

當我們考慮您之前提到的一些正面因素（例如貸款成長回升，也許資本市場運作率更高）時，您認為良好的基本費用成長是多少？

What would you think is a reasonable level?

您認為合理的水平是多少？

You didn't want to press down to '25, but you added '26 on there.

您不想向下按“25”，但您在其中添加了“26”。

Every year we go through a challenging discussion as to what we think expenses ought to be for our budget and going forward.

每年我們都會進行一次富有挑戰性的討論，討論我們認為預算和未來的支出應該是多少。

If you look, we do have a slide in our investor deck that shows that our compound annual growth rate since about 2016 is a little over 3%.

如果你仔細看的話，你會發現我們的投資者幻燈片中確實有一張幻燈片，顯示自 2016 年左右以來我們的複合年增長率略高於 3%。

We try to keep it to 2.5% if we can.

如果可以的話，我們盡量將其保持在 2.5%。

We've had some labor inflation as everybody has over the last couple of years.

正如過去幾年每個人都經歷過的那樣，我們也經歷了一些勞動力通膨。

And obviously, technology costs continue to go up.

顯然，技術成本持續上升。

So I would expect us to be somewhere, Matt, in that 2.5% to 3% range.

所以我預計我們會在 2.5% 到 3% 的範圍內，Matt。

And not committing to that just yet, we'll give you the guidance for '25 in January, but that should give you at least a start.

目前還沒有做出承諾，我們將在一月份為您提供 25 年的指導，但這至少應該給您一個開始。

Yes, that's helpful and makes sense.

是的，這很有幫助並且很有意義。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Sphar, Wells Fargo.

克里斯‧斯帕爾，富國銀行。

So this is just a follow-up, I think, to Ebrahim's question.

所以我認為這只是易卜拉欣問題的後續。

So you’ve had a good -- you are on pace and have a good mid-single digit or 7% growth I think in core fees this year.

所以你已經取得了很好的進展——我認為今年的核心費用有一個中等個位數或 7% 的良好增長。

What do you think Regions can achieve over the next two to three years with all the tactical hires you've made and when they start monetizing?

您認為透過您所進行的所有戰術招募以及何時開始貨幣化，區域在未來兩到三年內可以實現什麼目標？

And if fees are about 33% of revenues, what do you think that could be in three to five years?

如果費用約佔收入的 33%，您認為三到五年後會是多少？

Well, we continue to look for ways to generate fees by offering products and services that our customers value and need.

好吧，我們繼續尋找透過提供客戶重視和需要的產品和服務來產生費用的方法。

And so you've seen us do several acquisitions to that end.

因此，您已經看到我們為此進行了多次收購。

We're trying to stay committed to generating positive operating leverage between growth in NII and NIR and controlling our expense base.

我們正努力致力於在 NII 和 NIR 的成長之間產生積極的營運槓桿，並控制我們的費用基礎。

So I think we'll continue to do that and expect to generate positive operating leverage in 25%.

因此，我認為我們將繼續這樣做，並期望產生 25% 的正營運槓桿。

We'll give you a finer point on that again in January.

我們將在一月份再次為您提供更詳細的觀點。

But if we could have a little higher percentage of our fees, we've always said we would like to have revenue 50:50 between NII and NIR.

但如果我們可以收取更高一點的費用，我們總是說我們希望 NII 和 NIR 之間的收入比例為 50:50。

We've been saying that for a long time and been able to get there.

我們已經這麼說了很長時間並且能夠實現這一目標。

But if we could increase that, call it, 40% of our revenue and fees that'd be great.

但如果我們能夠增加收入和費用的 40%，那就太好了。

We've overcome an awful lot of consumer fee declines, whether it'd be interchange through Durbin, OD fees and the like.

我們已經克服了大量消費者費用下降的問題，無論是透過杜賓換乘、OD 費用還是類似費用。

And we've made investments in other products and services that have helped us, including treasury management investments that we've made where we've been up, call it, 7% to 10% three years running now.

我們也對其他對我們有幫助的產品和服務進行了投資，包括我們已經連續三年進行了 7% 到 10% 的資金管理投資。

So wealth management continues to grow.

因此財富管理持續成長。

They had a great quarter this quarter hit a record as a matter of fact.

事實上，他們本季的表現非常出色，創下了歷史記錄。

So we're going to continue to look for ways to generate fee growth that offset some -- we have some potential impacts.

因此，我們將繼續尋找方法來產生費用成長，以抵消一些——我們有一些潛在的影響。

If Durbin gets updated, we'll give you that information.

如果杜賓有更新，我們會向您提供該資訊。

So I think it's incumbent upon us to continue to look for ways to continue to grow.

因此，我認為我們有責任繼續尋找持續成長的方法。

And then regarding capital on slide 10.

然後是關於幻燈片 10 上的資本。

Just do you have any target or aspirational target that you have for CET1 all then, if it's 8.2 at quarter end?

如果季度末是 8.2 分的話，您對 CET1 是否有任何目標或理想目標？

Yes.

是的。

So we have a capital range -- operating range of $9.25 to $9.75 on CET1.

因此，我們的資本範圍——CET1 的營運範圍為 9.25 美元至 9.75 美元。

We've increased that to 10 point -- this quarter, 10.4%.

本季我們將這一數字提高到 10 個百分點，即 10.4%。

The reason for that was partly uncertainty with the economy and then uncertainty with regards to Basel III and what that was going to mean to us.

部分原因是經濟的不確定性，以及巴塞爾協議 III 的不確定性以及這對我們意味著什麼。

We have seen the draft of B3 that as has everybody.

我們已經看到了 B3 的草案，每個人都看到了。

And we think we're within striking distance of whatever the ultimate Basel III is going to be.

我們認為，無論巴塞爾協議 III 的最終目標是什麼，我們都已經很接近了。

And so we don't need to let our capital continue to accrete higher from here.

因此，我們不需要讓我們的資本從這裡繼續增加。

And as a result, if we generate income, we'll continue to pay a fair dividend.

因此，如果我們產生收入，我們將繼續支付公平的股息。

We will continue to look for ways to reposition our securities portfolio if that makes sense.

如果有意義的話，我們將繼續尋找重新定位我們的證券投資組合的方法。

And if all else doesn't work then we'll buy our stock back.

如果其他一切都不起作用，那麼我們將回購我們的股票。

And we've done all three of those things this past.

我們過去已經完成了這三件事。

And of course, we use that to grow loans as well.

當然，我們也用它來增加貸款。

And you should look for us to continue that.

您應該尋找我們繼續這樣做。

And so the capital of CET1 of 10.3%, 10.4% is about where you should expect it to be going forward, until we ultimately get Basel III.

因此，CET1 的資本為 10.3%、10.4%，大約是您應該預期的未來水平，直到我們最終獲得巴塞爾 III。

So that implies you were -- there was a decline in your buybacks in the second quarter.

這意味著第二季的回購有所下降。

So we should expect a meaningful increase in the third and fourth quarter?

那麼我們應該預期第三季和第四季會出現有意義的成長嗎？

Well, commensurate with earnings and if we -- the reason that we had changed, we used a bit of that capital for the $50 million pretax loss we took on the securities repositioning.

嗯，與收益相稱，如果我們——我們改變的原因，我們用了一部分資本來彌補我們因證券重新定位而承擔的 5000 萬美元稅前損失。

So it's all predicated on how big, if any, of our capital generation will we use for that.

因此，這一切都取決於我們將為此使用多少（如果有的話）資本生成。

The buyback is nothing more than what it takes to solve for getting us to 10.3% to 10.4% common equity Tier 1.

回購只不過是讓我們的一級普通股達到 10.3% 至 10.4% 所需的解決方案。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

John, you and I have talked in the past about pipelines and you emphasized that they are stronger today than they have been recently.

約翰，你和我過去曾談論過管道，你強調它們今天比最近更強大。

And I know it's hard to quantify this.

我知道很難量化這一點。

But can you give us any subjective opinion that these pipelines, the pull through could be even better than in the past or any color there?

但是您能否給我們任何主觀意見，認為這些管道、牽引力可能比過去或那裡的任何顏色更好？

I don't know that I have an opinion, Gerard, that it would be any different than our historical experience.

傑拉德，我不知道我的看法是否與我們的歷史經驗有什麼不同。

I do think that -- and we are seeing, as I said, pipelines build.

我確實認為——正如我所說，我們正在看到管道的建立。

We have seen some softness in some of our specialized businesses and those pipelines, in particular, are beginning to improve, particularly in areas like energy as an example, financial services, where we also include our subscription lines and our -- that would be comprised of our insurance book of some of the businesses where we're lending to customers who actually lend to others.

我們看到我們的一些專業業務出現了一些疲軟，特別是這些管道正在開始改善，特別是在能源、金融服務等領域，我們還包括我們的訂閱線和我們的——這將包括我們向實際上向其他人提供貸款的客戶提供貸款的一些企業的保險簿。

We've got some strong relationships in consumer finance that have been really good over time.

我們在消費金融領域建立了一些牢固的關係，隨著時間的推移，這種關係一直非常好。

But I can't tell you that I believe necessarily that we're going to see any change in pull through rates.

但我不能告訴你，我相信我們一定會看到拉動率有任何變化。

And I know, David, you've given us very good detail on the CET1 and uses of capital for buybacks of the securities repositioning.

我知道，大衛，您已經向我們提供了有關 CET1 以及用於回購證券重新定位的資金用途的非常詳細的資訊。

Possibly, John or David or both of you, can you give us your views on acquisitions?

約翰或大衛，或你們兩個，你們能告訴我們你們對收購的看法嗎？

I know you, over the recent past, have done non-depository acquisitions of course.

我知道您最近當然進行了非存款收購。

But when you look out over the next two or three years, there's likely to be more banking consolidation.

但當你展望未來兩三年時，可能會出現更多的銀行業整合。

How do you look at that outlook for Regions?

您如何看待各地區的前景？

We have said, historically, that we've not been interested in depository acquisition.

我們曾說過，從歷史上看，我們對存管收購不感興趣。

We've obviously made a number of non-bank acquisitions that have added to our capabilities, helped us grow and diversify our revenue, and we continue to look for those.

顯然，我們已經進行了許多非銀行收購，這些收購增強了我們的能力，幫助我們成長收入並實現收入多元化，我們將繼續尋找這些收購。

We believe that we have a really solid plan.

我們相信我們有一個非常可靠的計劃。

If we execute our plan that we can generate top quartile returns for our shareholders.

如果我們執行我們的計劃，我們就能為股東帶來最高四分之一的回報。

Without doing any bank M&A, it's disruptive, it's challenging.

如果不進行任何銀行併購，這就是顛覆性的、具有挑戰性的。

We certainly have over time through our performance improved our positioning.

隨著時間的推移，我們的表現確實提高了我們的定位。

Our currency is much stronger than it was six, seven years, 10 years ago.

我們的貨幣比六、七、十年前強得多。

But we still don't think that bank acquisition necessarily is in our future.

但我們仍然認為銀行收購不一定是我們的未來。

It's not part of our strategy today.

這不是我們今天策略的一部分。

As I said, it's disruptive, it's complicated.

正如我所說，它具有破壞性，而且很複雜。

And frankly, if we just execute our plan, we think we can deliver great results for our shareholders.

坦白說，如果我們執行我們的計劃，我們認為我們可以為股東帶來豐厚的成果。

That's not to say we won't follow what's going on, we'll pay attention, and we will continue to observe the market.

這並不是說我們不會關注正在發生的事情，我們會關注，我們將繼續觀察市場。

But today, we're focused on executing our plans.

但今天，我們專注於執行我們的計劃。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Back to credit, your ACL ratio came down slightly this quarter by about a bit.

回到信用點，本季您的 ACL 比率略有下降。

And just given what you're seeing on the credit front, given your commentary that your trends are peaking around this quarter on certain fronts.

考慮到您在信貸方面所看到的情況，考慮到您的評論，即您的趨勢在本季度左右在某些方面達到頂峰。

Where do you see the reserve ratio going from here?

您認為準備金率今後會走向何方？

If you can walk through the expectations if you could see incremental release on that front?

如果您能夠完成預期，並且您可以看到這方面的增量發布？

Yes, John.

是的，約翰。

So as we stated, if you look at our credit metrics, they're improving.

正如我們所說，如果您查看我們的信用指標，您會發現它們正在改善。

We said our charge-offs would be at the upper end of our range.

我們說過我們的沖銷將處於我們範圍的上限。

And so, those are reserved for.

因此，這些都是保留的。

So the expectation would be absent loan growth or changes in economic conditions as those charge-offs come through, you wouldn't expect -- you would expect the ACL to come down.

因此，隨著這些沖銷的發生，貸款成長或經濟狀況不會發生變化，你不會期望——你會期望 ACL 會下降。

Where it comes down ultimately, which is what I think your question is, it's hard to tell.

它最終會落在哪裡，這就是我認為你的問題所在，很難說。

We have to look at it every quarter and take all the information that's available to come up with the reserve.

我們必須每季查看一次，並利用所有可用的資訊來制定儲備金。

Something that you can’t look at just as a guide is if you were to go to pre-pandemic or pre-CECL, which was the fourth quarter of '19 and in that scenario, credit was looking pretty good, there was a little bit of a forecasted downturn in the economy at that time, and our absolute CECL reserve was 1.71%.

有件事你不能僅僅將其視為指導，如果你要去大流行前或 CECL 之前，那是 19 年的第四季度，在那種情況下，信用看起來相當不錯，有一個當時經濟預測略有下滑，我們的絕對CECL 準備為1.71%。

If you take the losses though at that time by portfolio and apply it to our current portfolio, that will equate to a reserve level of

如果您當時按投資組合承擔損失並將其應用到我們當前的投資組合中，則這將相當於準備金水平

[1.61].

[1.61]。

I think we put that on the bottom of one of our charts.

我想我們把它放在一張圖表的底部。

And so you would expect over time to bleed back down towards something more normal like that.

所以你會期望隨著時間的推移，血液會回歸到更正常的狀態。

How fast that gets there, when it can get there?

到達那裡的速度有多快，什麼時候可以到達那裡？

That's impossible for us to tell.

這對我們來說是不可能告訴的。

But generally speaking, what we know today is that if we have charge-offs coming through in the short term, you should see the ACL come down.

但總的來說，我們今天所知道的是，如果我們在短期內進行註銷，您應該會看到 ACL 下降。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

I know you expected it flat-to-down, but helping frame it like that is definitely helpful.

我知道你期望它是平鋪直下的，但是幫助像這樣建造它肯定是有幫助的。

And then secondly, on the expense front as a follow-up to Matt's question, I know you're confident in the positive operating leverage in the back half of this year.

其次，在費用方面，作為馬特問題的後續，我知道您對今年下半年的積極營運槓桿充滿信心。

And it sounds like you're focusing on positive operating leverage for next year as well.

聽起來您也將重點放在明年的積極營運槓桿上。

Your long-term expense growth rate that you alluded to in your response of 2.5% to 3%, that's a bit above where it looks like consensus is running right now around 2% for next year.

您在回覆中提到的長期費用成長率為 2.5% 至 3%，這略高於目前一致認為明年的 2% 左右。

I guess, where are you investing in areas that could put you in that 2.5% to 3% range versus anywhere lower?

我想，您在哪些領域進行投資，可以使您的利率處於 2.5% 至 3% 的範圍內，而不是任何更低的領域？

And maybe if you could talk about what that would mean for a longer-term efficiency ratio that you should be running at?

也許您可以談談這對於您應該運行的長期效率比意味著什麼？

So we're going to give you more pointed guidance for 2025 later.

因此，我們稍後將為您提供 2025 年更有針對性的指導。

So we're not trying to get ahead of ourselves.

所以我們不想超越自己。

Generally speaking, inflation that's baked into our book is going to be closer to that 2.5%, our largest category of expense for salaries and benefits.

一般來說，我們帳簿中的通貨膨脹率將接近 2.5%，這是我們最大的薪資和福利支出類別。

And so we have to adequately pay our people.

因此，我們必須向我們的員工支付足夠的工資。

And we are also investing in technology, cyber, consumer compliance, all those things take a lot of money to continue to invest in, to improve in all those areas.

我們也在技術、網路、消費者合規性方面進行投資，所有這些都需要大量資金來繼續投資、改善所有這些領域。

We have to find ways to pay for that and that's what gets harder as we've -- the low hanging fruit is not there.

我們必須找到方法來支付費用，而這正是我們所面臨的困難——容易實現的目標並不存在。

We've done a really good job of controlling our expense base, we have one of the lowest efficiency ratios in the peer group.

我們在控制費用基礎方面做得非常好，我們是同業中效率比率最低的公司之一。

We were hoping to get to the lower 50s over time and we think we can do that.

我們希望隨著時間的推移能夠達到 50 左右，我們認為我們可以做到這一點。

But we're going to have to leverage technology better over time than we do today, and I think that's going to be true for anybody in the industry.

但隨著時間的推移，我們將不得不比現在更好地利用技術，我認為這對行業中的任何人都是如此。

And so by doing that, you have less reliance on labor.

因此，透過這樣做，你可以減少對勞動力的依賴。

And so you can let natural attrition take care of labor as you implement technology solutions.

因此，在實施技術解決方案時，您可以讓自然損耗來解決勞動力問題。

So we're spending, call it, 9% to 11% of our revenue on technology.

因此，我們將收入的 9% 到 11% 花在了技術上。

We have some big technology projects in the works with our new deposit system and new commercial loan system, new general ledger, those take money.

我們正在進行一些大型技術項目，包括新的存款系統、新的商業貸款系統、新的總賬，這些都需要錢。

We got to figure out how to pay for that and keep our expense run rate as low as we can.

我們必須弄清楚如何支付費用並盡可能保持較低的費用運行率。

So our goal is to try to continue to move our efficiency ratio down from where we are today to get to that lower 50s.

因此，我們的目標是嘗試繼續將我們的效率比從目前的水平降低到 50 左右。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

And since you mentioned the deposit system, is that still running on plan?

既然你提到了存款系統，它還在照計畫運作嗎？

It's a big project and it's moving according to how we have it laid out, but we've got a long way to go.

這是一個大項目，它正在根據我們的佈局進行推進，但我們還有很長的路要走。

So we're not there yet.

所以我們還沒到那一步。

Yes, it's running on plan, John.

是的，它正在按計劃進行，約翰。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, both you.

謝謝，你們倆。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley.

貝特西‧格拉塞克，摩根士丹利。

I just want to make sure I heard you right on the NIM, normalized NIM in normalized rate environment.

我只是想確保我在 NIM（標準化費率環境中的標準化 NIM）方面沒有聽錯。

So if I heard you correctly, it was -- normalized rate environment starts with the Fed funds that's somewhat similar to inflation, right, like 2.5% and 3%.

所以，如果我沒聽錯的話，那就是——正常化的利率環境從聯邦基金開始，這有點類似通貨膨脹，對吧，例如 2.5% 和 3%。

And you have a steep curve from there or a steep normal curve, not inverted.

從那裡你會得到一條陡峭的曲線或一條陡峭的正常曲線，而不是倒轉。

And in that environment on a full year basis, you're saying that your normalized NIM should be somewhere in the 3.75% to 3.80% range.

在這種環境下，以全年計算，您的標準化淨利差應該在 3.75% 到 3.80% 的範圍內。

Is that right?

是對的嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

You got it.

你說對了。

And that based on the forward curve that would be again sometime in '25 or '26?

那是基於 25 年或 26 年某個時候的遠期曲線嗎？

Yes, that's right.

恩，那就對了。

And then obviously that's higher than your NIM that you had this quarter.

顯然，這高於本季的淨利差。

Could you just walk -- and I know you spent a lot of time on the NII and the NIM in the beginning part of the call.

你能走開嗎？

I just want to make sure I understand the key drivers that take you from where your NIM is today to that normalized.

我只是想確保我了解使您的 NIM 從今天的狀態走向正常化的關鍵驅動因素。

Well, I think as rates continue to come down, our funding cost, our input cost will come down as well.

嗯，我認為隨著利率持續下降，我們的融資成本、投入成本也會下降。

And the power of our front book, back book will continue to benefit us for a couple of years.

我們的封面、封底的力量將在未來幾年內繼續讓我們受益。

So with the curve steepening and the repricing of the balance sheet, that's what drives you up from where you are in the 3.50s to that 3.75 range that we just talked about.

因此，隨著曲線變陡和資產負債表的重新定價，這就是推動您從 3.50 上升到我們剛才談到的 3.75 範圍的原因。

It's just about what period of time.

這只是關於什麼時間段。

We think we have our beta down -- I mean, down rate beta in the mid-30s, we think is appropriate, perhaps conservative.

我們認為我們已經降低了貝塔值——我的意思是，將貝塔值降低到 30 多歲左右，我們認為是適當的，也許是保守的。

And so it's an important driver to get the input cost down.

因此，它是降低投入成本的重要驅動力。

And to continue to grow the balance sheet and grow, we have some high yielding assets that have higher losses, but they have nice returns, nice net interest margins.

為了繼續擴大資產負債表並實現成長，我們擁有一些損失較高的高收益資產，但它們具有不錯的回報和不錯的淨利差。

Continuing to grow checking accounts of a consumer and operating accounts of a business are huge drivers to lowering the input cost on deposits.

消費者支票帳戶和企業經營帳戶的持續成長是降低存款投入成本的巨大推動力。

And so that's why it's so important for us continue to make investments in the markets that John mentioned earlier for both of those reasons in the consumer side and business side to get those checking accounts and operating accounts.

因此，這就是為什麼我們繼續在約翰之前提到的市場上進行投資如此重要，因為消費者方面和企業方面都有這些原因，以獲得支票帳戶和營運帳戶。

So should I read it as you are liability sensitive?

那麼我應該閱讀它，因為您對責任敏感嗎？

Or do I read it as you are neutral with these changes that drive the NIM higher?

或者我讀它是因為您對這些推動淨利差更高的變化持中立態度？

Or your asset sensitive but decliningly so as rates fall?

還是您的資產敏感但隨著利率下降而下降？

We're neutral to short rates.

我們對短期利率持中性態度。

And so to the extent, we start seeing rate cuts, then you're going to see our deposit costs continuing to come down.

因此，在某種程度上，我們開始看到降息，然後你會看到我們的存款成本繼續下降。

And we still have fixed rate assets, so we’ll continue to help benefit NII and the margin, and what will happen is the curve will steepen.

而且我們仍然擁有固定利率資產，因此我們將繼續幫助 NII 和利潤受益，而曲線將會變得陡峭。

Obviously, if you stay anchored on the long end and short rate comes down and we'll benefit from that as well.

顯然，如果你繼續錨定長期，短期利率下降，我們也會從中受益。

Super.

極好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's very clear.

這非常清楚。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call back over to John Turner for closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉回約翰·特納以徵求結束意見。

Okay.

好的。

Well, thank you all very much.

嗯，非常感謝大家。

We are again proud of our quarter, proud of our team that’s executing our plans so well.

我們再次為我們的季度感到自豪，為我們出色地執行計劃的團隊感到自豪。

We appreciate your interest in our company.

我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣。

Have a great weekend.

週末愉快。

This concludes today's teleconference.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。