(RF) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Regions Financial Corporation's quarterly earnings call. My name is Christine, and I will be your operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Dana Nolan to begin.

早上好，歡迎參加地區金融公司的季度財報電話會議。我叫克莉絲汀，我是今天電話的接線生。 （操作員指示）我現在將通話轉給達納諾蘭開始。

Thank you, Christine. Welcome to Regions First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. John and David will provide high-level commentary regarding our results. The earning documents include a forward-looking statement disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available in the Investor Relations section of our website. These disclosures cover our presentation materials, prepared comments and Q&A.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。歡迎參加 2024 年第一季各地區財報電話會議。約翰和大衛將對我們的結果提供高水準的評論。收益文件包括前瞻性聲明免責聲明，並且非公認會計準則資訊可在我們網站的投資者關係部分取得。這些揭露內容包括我們的簡報資料、準備好的評論和問答。

I will now turn the call over to John.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Dana, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call today. This morning, we reported first quarter earnings of $343 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.37. However, adjusted items reconciled within our earnings supplement and press release, representing an approximate $0.07 negative impact on our reported results.

謝謝你，達納，大家早安。我們感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。今天早上，我們報告第一季收益為 3.43 億美元，每股收益為 0.37 美元。然而，調整後的項目在我們的收益補充和新聞稿中進行了調整，對我們報告的業績產生了約 0.07 美元的負面影響。

For the first quarter, total revenue was $1.7 billion on a reported basis and $1.8 billion on an adjusted basis as both net interest income and fee revenue demonstrated resiliency in the face of lingering macroeconomic and political uncertainty. Adjusted noninterest expenses increased quarter-over-quarter and is expected to represent the high watermark for the year as seasonal impacts offset our ongoing expense management actions.

第一季的報告總收入為 17 億美元，調整後總收入為 18 億美元，因為面對揮之不去的宏觀經濟和政治不確定性，淨利息收入和費用收入都表現出了彈性。調整後的非利息支出環比增加，預計將代表今年的高水位，因為季節性影響抵消了我們正在進行的費用管理行動。

Average loans were lower quarter-over-quarter, reflecting limited client demand, client selectivity, paydowns and an increase in debt capital markets activities. Average in ending deposits continued to grow during the quarter, consistent with seasonal patterns. Credit continues to perform in line with our expectations. While pressure remains within pockets of business lending, our consumers remain strong and healthy. We anticipate overall asset quality will perform consistent with historical levels experienced prior to the pandemic.

平均貸款較上季下降，反映出客戶需求、客戶選擇性、還款和債務資本市場活動的增加有限。本季末平均存款持續成長，與季節性模式一致。信貸表現持續符合我們的預期。儘管商業貸款仍然面臨壓力，但我們的消費者仍然強勁和健康。我們預計整體資產品質將與大流行之前的歷史水準保持一致。

In closing, we feel good about the successful execution of our strategic plan as evidenced by our solid top line revenue, which allows us to continue delivering consistent, sustainable long-term performance while focused on soundness, profitability and growth.

最後，我們對策略計畫的成功執行感到滿意，我們堅實的營收證明了這一點，這使我們能夠繼續提供一致、可持續的長期業績，同時專注於穩健性、獲利能力和成長。

Now Dave will provide some highlights regarding the quarter.

現在戴夫將提供有關本季的一些亮點。

Thank you, John. Let's start with the balance sheet. Average and ending loans decreased modestly on a sequential quarter basis. Within the business portfolio, average loans declined 1% as modest increases associated with funding previously approved in investor real estate construction loans were offset by declines in C&I lending. Approximately $870 million of C&I loans were refinanced off of balance sheet through the debt capital markets during the quarter.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們從資產負債表開始。平均貸款和期末貸款較上季小幅下降。在業務組合中，平均貸款下降了 1%，因為先前批准的投資者房地產建設貸款資金的小幅增長被工商業貸款的下降所抵消。本季度，大約 8.7 億美元的工商業貸款透過債務資本市場在資產負債表外進行了再融資。

Average consumer loans remained relatively stable as growth in residential mortgage, EnerBank and consumer credit card were offset by declines in home equity and run-off portfolios. We expect 2024 average loans to be stable to down modestly compared to 2023.

由於住宅抵押貸款、EnerBank 和消費信用卡的成長被房屋淨值和徑流投資組合的下降所抵消，平均消費貸款保持相對穩定。我們預計 2024 年平均貸款將比 2023 年穩定或小幅下降。

From a deposit standpoint, deposits increased on average and ending basis, which is typical for the first quarter tax refund season. In the second quarter, we expect to see declines in overall balances, reflecting the impact of tax payments.

從存款角度來看，存款平均和期末均有所成長，這是第一季退稅季的典型情況。在第二季度，我們預計整體餘額將下降，反映了納稅的影響。

The mix of deposits continue to shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing products, though the pace of remixing has continued to slow. Our analysis of the trends and overall customer spending behavior gives us confidence that by midyear, we'll have a noninterest-bearing mix in the low 30% area which corresponds to approximately $1 billion to $2 billion of potential further decline in low interest savings and checking balances.

存款結構繼續從無息產品轉向有息產品，但重新混合的步伐繼續放緩。我們對趨勢和整體客戶支出行為的分析使我們相信，到年中，我們將在低 30% 區域實現無息組合，這相當於低息儲蓄和潛在進一步下降約 10 億至 20 億美元。 。

So let's shift to net interest income. As expected, net interest income declined by approximately 4% linked quarter, and the net interest margin declined 5 basis points. Deposit, remixing and cost increases continue to pressure net interest income. The full rising rate cycle interest-bearing deposit beta is now 43%, and we continue to expect to peak in the mid-40% range. Offsetting this pressure, asset yields continue to benefit from higher rates through the maturity and replacement of lower-yielding fixed-rate loans and securities. We expect net interest income to reach a bottom in the second quarter followed by growth over the second half of the year as deposit trends continue to improve and the benefits of fixed rate asset turnover persist.

那麼讓我們轉向淨利息收入。如預期，淨利息收入較上季下降約 4%，淨利差下降 5 個基點。存款、重新混合和成本增加繼續對淨利息收入構成壓力。整個升息週期有息存款貝塔係數目前為 43%，我們繼續預期高峰將在 40% 左右。為了抵​​消這種壓力，透過到期和替換低收益固定利率貸款和證券，資產收益率繼續受益於較高的利率。我們預計，隨著存款趨勢持續改善以及固定利率資產週轉的好處持續存在，淨利息收入將在第二季觸底，隨後在下半年實現成長。

The narrow 2024 net interest income range between $4.7 billion and $4.8 billion portrays a well-protected profile under a wide array of possible economic outcomes. Performance in the range will be driven mostly by our ability to reprice deposits. A relatively small portion of interest-bearing deposit balances is responsible for the majority of the deposit cost increase this cycle, mostly index deposits and CDs. We have taken steps to increase flexibility such as shortening promotional CD maturities and reducing promotional rates. If the Fed remains on hold, net interest income likely falls in the lower half of the range, assuming modest incremental funding cost pressure.

2024 年淨利息收入範圍在 47 億美元至 48 億美元之間，這表明在各種可能的經濟結果下，淨利息收入都受到了良好的保護。在該範圍內的表現將主要取決於我們對存款重新定價的能力。本週期存款成本增加的主要原因是有息存款餘額中相對較小的一部分，其中主要是指數存款和存款證。我們已採取措施提高靈活性，例如縮短促銷 CD 的期限和降低促銷費率。如果聯準會繼續按兵不動，假設增量融資成本壓力不大，淨利息收入可能會下降到該區間的下半部。

So let's take a look at fee revenue, which experienced strong performance this quarter. Adjusted noninterest income increased 6% during the quarter as most categories experienced growth, particularly capital markets. Improvement in capital markets was driven by increased real estate, debt capital markets and M&A activity. A portion of both real estate and M&A activities were pushed into the first quarter from year-end as clients delayed transactions.

讓我們來看看本季表現強勁的費用收入。由於大多數類別（尤其是資本市場）都出現成長，本季調整後的非利息收入增加了 6%。資本市場的改善是由房地產、債務資本市場和併購活動的增加所推動的。由於客戶推遲交易，部分房地產和併購活動從年底開始被推遲到第一季。

Late in the first quarter, we also closed on the bulk purchase of the rights to service $8 billion of residential mortgage loans. We have a low-cost servicing model. So you'll see us continue to look for additional opportunities. We continue to expect full year 2024 adjusted noninterest income to be between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion.

第一季末，我們也完成了對 80 億美元住宅抵押貸款服務權的大量購買。我們有一個低成本的服務模式。因此，您會看到我們繼續尋找更多機會。我們仍預期 2024 年全年調整後非利息收入將在 23 億至 24 億美元之間。

Let's move on to noninterest expense. Adjusted noninterest expense increased 6% compared to the prior quarter, driven primarily by seasonal HR-related expenses and production-based incentive payments. Operational losses also ticked up during the quarter. The increase is attributable to check-related warranty claims from deposits that occurred last year. Despite this increase, current activity has normalized to expected levels, and we continue to expect full year 2024 operational losses to be approximately $100 million.

讓我們繼續討論非利息支出。調整後的非利息支出與上一季相比增加了 6%，這主要是由季節性人力資源相關支出和基於生產的激勵付款所推動的。本季營運虧損也有所增加。這一增長歸因於去年發生的與支票相關的押金保固索賠。儘管有所增加，但當前活動已正常化至預期水平，我們仍然預計 2024 年全年營運損失約為 1 億美元。

We remain committed to prudently managing expenses to fund investments in our business. We will continue focusing on our largest expense categories, which include salaries and benefits, occupancy and vendor spend. We continue to expect full year 2024 adjusted noninterest expenses to be approximately $4.1 billion with first quarter representing the high watermark for the year.

我們仍然致力於審慎管理費用，為我們的業務投資提供資金。我們將繼續關注最大的支出類別，包括薪資和福利、入住率和供應商支出。我們繼續預計 2024 年全年調整後非利息支出約為 41 億美元，其中第一季是全年的高水位。

From an asset quality standpoint, overall credit performance continues to normalize as expected. Adjusted net charge-offs increased 11 basis points driven primarily by a large legacy restaurant credit and one commercial manufacturing credit. As a reminder, we exited our fast casual restaurant vertical in 2019 and the remaining portfolio is relatively small.

從資產品質來看，整體信用表現持續正常化，符合預期。調整後的淨沖銷增加了 11 個基點，主要是由一筆大型傳統餐廳信貸和一筆商業製造業信貸推動的。提醒一下，我們在 2019 年退出了快速休閒餐廳垂直領域，剩餘的投資組合相對較小。

Total nonperforming loans and business services criticized loans increased during the quarter and continue to normalize towards historical averages, while total delinquencies improved 11%. Nonperforming loans as a percentage of total loans increased to 94 basis points due primarily to downgrades within industries previously identified as under stress. We expect NPLs to continue to normalize towards historical averages.

本季不良貸款和商業服務不良貸款總額有所增加，並繼續向歷史平均水平正常化，而拖欠總額下降了 11%。不良貸款佔貸款總額的百分比上升至 94 個基點，這主要是由於先前被認為面臨壓力的行業的評級下調。我們預計不良貸款將繼續正常化至歷史平均。

Provision expense was $152 million or $31 million in excess of net charge-offs, resulting in a 6 basis point increase in the allowance for credit loss ratio to 1.79%. The increase to our allowance was primarily due to adverse risk migration and continued credit quality normalization, and incrementally higher qualitative adjustments for risk in certain portfolios previously identified as under stress. We continue to expect our full year 2024 net charge-off ratio to be between 40 and 50 basis points.

撥備費用為 1.52 億美元，比淨沖銷額多出 3,100 萬美元，導致信貸損失準備率增加 6 個基點，達到 1.79%。我們準備金的增加主要是由於不利的風險遷移和持續的信貸品質正常化，以及對先前確定為面臨壓力的某些投資組合的風險進行了逐步更高的定性調整。我們繼續預計 2024 年全年淨沖銷率將在 40 至 50 個基點之間。

Let's turn to capital and liquidity. We expect to maintain our common equity Tier 1 ratio consistent with current levels over the near term. This level will provide sufficient flexibility to meet proposed changes along with the implementation timeline while supporting strategic growth objectives and allowing us to continue to increase the dividend commensurate with earnings. We ended the quarter with an estimated common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10.3%, while executing $102 million in share repurchases and $220 million in common dividends during the quarter.

讓我們轉向資本和流動性。我們預計短期內將普通股一級資本比率維持在目前水準。這一水準將提供足夠的靈活性，以滿足擬議的變更和實施時間表，同時支持戰略成長目標，並使我們能夠繼續增加與收益相稱的股息。本季結束時，我們預計普通股一級資本比率為 10.3%，同時在本季度執行了 1.02 億美元的股票回購和 2.2 億美元的普通股股息。

With that, we'll move to the Q&A portion of the call.

這樣，我們將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的電話線。

David, just following up on your comments around noninterest-bearing deposits sitting mid -- I guess, low 30% by mid-2024. Just give us a sense of if we don't get any rate cuts, do you see that dipping below 30% based on what you're seeing in terms of customer behavior and just use of balances as I'm assuming there's some attrition on consumer balances that's at play here?

David，我只是跟進您對無息存款的評論，我猜，到 2024 年中期，無息存款將下降 30%。請讓我們了解一下，如果我們沒有任何降息，您是否會看到，根據您所看到的客戶行為以及餘額的使用情況，利率會下降到 30% 以下，因為我假設存在一些流失消費者平衡在這裡發揮作用？

So like where do you see that mix bottoming out? And what's the latest that you are seeing in terms of pricing competition across the markets?

那你認為這種混合在哪裡觸底呢？您在整個市場的定價競爭方面看到的最新情況是什麼？

Yes. So from a balance standpoint, we still feel pretty confident based on flows that we have seen and expect that we'd be in that low 30% range. We continue to look to grow noninterest-bearing balances through new checking accounts, new operating accounts. That's what's important to us. That's what fuels our profitability.

是的。因此，從平衡的角度來看，根據我們所看到的流量，我們仍然非常有信心，並預期我們會處於 30% 的低範圍內。我們繼續尋求透過新的支票帳戶和新的營運帳戶來增加無息餘額。這對我們來說很重要。這就是我們獲利能力的動力。

And so being in the favorable places, in particular, in the Southeast where there's migration of businesses, people give us some comfort that we can grow there. We talked about deposits bottoming out this first half of the year and then maybe growing a little bit from there. So I think that low 30% range is a good -- still a good level.

因此，在有利的地方，特別是在東南部，那裡有企業遷移，人們給了我們一些安慰，讓我們可以在那裡發展。我們談到存款在今年上半年觸底，然後可能會在此基礎上略有增長。所以我認為 30% 的低範圍是一個很好的——仍然是一個很好的水平。

With regards to competition on pricing, I think at the end of the day, we haven't seen, across the industry, a lot of loan growth. And as a result of that, competition for deposits is not as strong as it could have been had we had a lot of loan demand.

關於定價競爭，我認為歸根結底，我們還沒有看到整個行業的貸款大幅成長。因此，存款的競爭並不像我們有大量貸款需求那樣激烈。

We always have competition. We have to be fair and balanced with our customers and making sure that we are creating value. And so we look at what our competitors are doing from a price standpoint, and we adjust accordingly. But there's nothing unusual that's happening there. And I think the biggest driver of that is because of the lack of loan growth.

我們總是有競爭。我們必須對客戶公平、平衡，並確保我們正在創造價值。因此，我們從價格的角度檢視競爭對手的做法，並做出相應調整。但那裡並沒有發生什麼不尋常的事情。我認為最大的推動因素是貸款成長乏力。

That's helpful. And just a separate question. As we think about capital deployment that you outlined on Slide 10, is there more to go in terms of just the appetite for securities repositioning? And how much should we expect in terms of what you did in 1Q with regards to the lift in the second quarter to bond yields?

這很有幫助。只是一個單獨的問題。當我們思考您在投影片 10 中概述的資本部署時，僅就證券重新定位的興趣而言，還有更多的事情要做嗎？根據您在第一季所做的工作，我們對第二季債券殖利率的提升應該有多少預期？

Yes. So we consistently challenge ourselves on what's the best use of our capital that we generate. Obviously, we're at a robust 10.3% common equity Tier 1. We think we're close enough to be in striking distance on whatever the regime changes with regards to capital. And again, with loan growth being muted in the industry, we want to pay a fair dividend. So we're generating capital that needs to be put to work. We either buy the shares back or we do things like securities repositioning.

是的。因此，我們不斷挑戰自己，如何最好地利用我們產生的資本。顯然，我們處於 10.3% 的強勁普通股一級。再說一遍，隨著產業貸款成長放緩，我們希望支付公平的股息。因此，我們正在產生需要投入使用的資本。我們要麼回購股票，要麼進行證券重新定位等事情。

We did the $50 million in the first quarter. We'll continue to look for opportunities. I would say that proof is not as close to the ground as it was because we want to keep our payback less than 3 years and frankly closer to 2.5 if we can get it. Our payback in this last trade was about 2.1. And so we think that was a great use of capital for us. And so we'll look to do that, but we're not committing to it.

我們第一季就賺了 5000 萬美元。我們將繼續尋找機會。我想說，這個證據並不像以前那麼接近事實，因為我們希望將投資回收期控制在 3 年以內，坦白說，如果我們能得到它的話，更接近 2.5 年。我們在最後一筆交易的回報約為 2.1。所以我們認為這對我們來說是個很好的資本運用。因此，我們會考慮這樣做，但我們不會承諾這樣做。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯（Scott Siefers）和派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的對話。

I was hoping you could please flesh out some of the rationale behind the softened loan growth outlook. I certainly understand it, given the backdrop and what we're seeing in the H8 data. But it in ways contrast with some peers who might be expecting more of an acceleration in the second half. So just curious to hear your updated thoughts on customer demand and how they're thinking.

我希望您能詳細說明貸款成長前景疲軟背後的一些理由。考慮到背景以及我們在 H8 數據中看到的內容，我當然理解這一點。但這在某種程度上與一些同行形成鮮明對比，他們可能會預期下半年會出現更多加速。因此，我很想聽聽您對客戶需求的最新想法以及他們的想法。

Well, on the consumer side, as we mentioned, we did a pretty good job growing mortgage, growing EnerBank, growing card, but it was offset by declines in the home equity which made consumers flat. Consumers are actually in really good. Now we feel good about that, we just don't see a lot of loan growth -- net-net loan growth.

嗯，在消費者方面，正如我們所提到的，我們在增加抵押貸款、增加 EnerBank 和信用卡方面做得相當不錯，但它被房屋淨值下降所抵消，這使得消費者持平。消費者其實真的很好。現在我們對此感覺良好，只是沒有看到大量貸款成長——淨貸款成長。

Relative to commercial, depending on the industry, some industries are blowing and going, and others are being careful at this point. We've had nice production, but we've had payoffs and pay downs. And of course, this past quarter, we had $870 million of debt placements through our M&A group that helped us from an NIR standpoint, but obviously hurt us from a balance standpoint. If we start seeing rates actually decline, that activity will pick up. And so net-net, it's going to be hard to grow meaningfully through all of that activity.

相對商業而言，根據行業不同，有的行業風生水起，有的行業則在這一點上保持謹慎。我們取得了不錯的成果，但我們也有回報和付出。當然，上個季度，我們透過併購團隊進行了 8.7 億美元的債務安置，從 NIR 的角度來看，這對我們有幫助，但從平衡的角度來看，這顯然損害了我們。如果我們開始看到利率實際上下降，那麼這種活動就會增加。因此，透過所有這些活動，很難實現有意義的成長。

And we're fine with that. We don't need to push. In this environment, there's still uncertainty. We don't need to push for loan growth. We need to be careful on client selectivity. John has talked about that numerous times. And we want to be careful. We clearly have the capital and liquidity to do so. And if we see opportunities, we'll grow, but we're not going to force it.

我們對此表示同意。我們不需要推動。在這種環境下，仍存在不確定性。我們不需要推動貸款成長。我們需要謹慎對待客戶的選擇性。約翰已經多次談到這一點。我們要小心。我們顯然擁有這樣做的資本和流動性。如果我們看到機會，我們就會成長，但我們不會強迫它。

Okay. Perfect. And then separately, I was hoping you could discuss the additional operational losses. it was definitely glad to see no change to the full year expectation, though they were elevated in the first quarter. Maybe just an additional color. Were there new instances of the issues that have cropped up last year? Or were these just sort of true-ups? And what gives you confidence that all the issues are still resolved and everything?

好的。完美的。然後，我希望您能單獨討論額外的營運損失。儘管第一季的預期有所提高，但我們確實很高興看到全年預期沒有變化。也許只是一種額外的顏色。去年出現的問題是否有新的實例？或者這些只是某種事實？是什麼讓您有信心所有問題都已解決？

Yes. This is John. So there were no new events. The tail was, with respect to the breach of warranty claims, was a little longer than we anticipated. And as a result, we did incur some additional losses in the quarter.

是的。這是約翰。所以沒有發生新的事件。就違反保固索賠而言，尾巴比我們預期的要長一些。結果，我們在本季確實遭受了一些額外的損失。

What gives us confidence that we can meet our expectations is the exit rate for the quarter was significantly reduced, which implies that the countermeasures we put in place, the talent that we've recruited for our fraud prevention activities, all of that is working and gives us confidence that we can and in fact, meet our $100 million target for the year.

讓我們有信心能夠達到預期的是，本季度的退出率顯著降低，這意味著我們採取的對策、我們為預防欺詐活動招募的人才，所有這些都在發揮作用，並且讓我們相信我們能夠而且事實上能夠實現今年1 億美元的目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

So one question just on how we're thinking about NII for the full year in relation to loan growth being a little slower. So I just wanted to understand, your NII guide obviously, is the same as it was before. Loan growth expectations, a little lower understandably so. How do I square those things?

因此，有一個問題是我們如何考慮全年的國家資訊基礎設施（NII）與貸款成長放緩的關係。所以我只是想了解，您的 NII 指南顯然與以前相同。貸款成長預期稍低一點是可以理解的。我該如何處理這些東西？

Well, loan growth, we had talked about being in the back half of the year. So you weren't going to get a lot of carry from loan growth in our guidance. And so really what we want to see loan growth for the back half of the year is setting us up for 2025, not for 2024. So that was never factored into the guidance that we gave you on NII.

嗯，貸款成長，我們曾在今年下半年討論過。因此，在我們的指導中，你不會從貸款成長中獲得太多利差。因此，我們實際上希望看到下半年的貸款成長是為 2025 年而不是 2024 年做好準備。

We feel good about where we're positioned from a balance sheet standpoint with basically neutral to short-term rates. And we have a little bit of shape to the curve where we reinvest our securities book and we're picking up a little over 200 basis points -- 235 basis points on that, front book, back book. So that gives us confidence there that we're going to do pretty well with regards to the NII.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們對自己的定位感到滿意，短期利率基本上是中性。我們對證券帳簿再投資的曲線有一點形狀，我們的漲幅略高於 200 個基點——前帳面、後帳面分別上漲 235 個基點。這讓我們有信心在國家資訊基礎設施方面我們會做得很好。

And if you look at the input cost, so our deposit cost, they've also started to flatten. If we look at the months of February and March, there was little change in our deposit costs. So our cumulative beta, which is at 43 today, we said would be in the mid-40s. We have a lot of confidence in that. So that's why we didn't change our NII guide.

如果你看看投入成本，我們的存款成本，它們也開始趨於平緩。如果我們看二月和三月，我們的存款成本幾乎沒有變化。因此，我們的累積貝塔值今天為 43，我們預計將在 40 多歲左右。我們對此充滿信心。這就是我們沒有更改 NII 指南的原因。

Okay. Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then just on the securities repositioning that you talked about on Slide 5, is it? Just wanted to understand how you're thinking about the go forward here. You added some duration, again, makes sense, but wanted to know if you're thinking of leaning in even more? Like how long will -- are you comfortable extending the duration of the securities book is basically the question.

好的。知道了。這很有意義。然後就是您在投影片 5 中談到的證券重新定位，是嗎？只是想了解您如何看待這裡的進展。您再次增加了一些持續時間，這是有道理的，但想知道您是否正在考慮進一步傾斜？例如，你是否願意延長證券帳簿的期限，這基本上是一個問題。

Well, our extension duration was only like 1-2, 12 basis points a year. So negligible. And from our standpoint, especially if you believe the risk of rates going up is very low, i.e., you believe they're either flat to down, then perhaps taking a little duration risk where we can get compensated for make some sense today.

嗯，我們的延期期限只有 1-2 個，每年 12 個基點。所以可以忽略不計。從我們的角度來看，特別是如果您認為利率上升的風險非常低，即您認為利率要么持平，要么下降，那麼也許承擔一點久期風險，我們今天可以得到補償，這是有道理的。

Our duration naturally is declining. So doing a trade to kind of keep it flat to modestly higher than where we are right now, it seems to make sense. And it's a good use of capital. If we can get a payback, like I said, the one we just did, our payback's 2.1 years. We'd like it to be less than 3, closer to 2.5 if we can.

我們的壽命自然在縮短。因此，進行交易以使其保持平穩或略高於目前的水平，這似乎是有道理的。這是對資本的良好利用。如果我們能得到回報，就像我剛才說的那樣，我們的回報期是 2.1 年。如果可以的話，我們希望它小於 3，更接近 2.5。

And so while we won't commit to doing that, we would look at it. And if we did it, it would be no more than what you just experienced. We want to keep it at a fairly small percentage of our pretax income.

因此，雖然我們不會承諾這樣做，但我們會考慮一下。如果我們這麼做了，那就跟你剛剛經歷的一樣了。我們希望將其保持在稅前收入中相當小的比例。

Our next question comes from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

On the credit front, saw about a moderate increase in nonperformers in the quarter. However, your loan loss reserve is pretty stable despite the move-in reserves. So -- I mean, not performance, so I just want to see if you get a little bit of color on how you're thinking about the reserves here? And also, maybe if you can give a little bit more color behind the nonperformers.

在信貸方面，本季不良貸款略有增加。然而，儘管有遷入準備金，您的貸款損失準備金仍然相當穩定。所以——我的意思是，不是表現，所以我只是想看看你是否對你如何看待這裡的儲備有一些了解？而且，也許你能為表現不佳的人提供更多的色彩。

Yes. John, maybe I'll start. This is John Turner. First of all, we began signaling now a couple of quarters ago, stress in a couple of specific portfolios or industries: office, senior housing, transportation, health care, specifically goods and services, and technology. And the increases that we are seeing in nonaccrual loans and classified loans are largely consistent with the indication that there is stress in those particular industries.

是的。約翰，也許我會開始。這是約翰·特納。首先，我們在幾個季度前開始發出信號，表明幾個特定投資組合或行業面臨壓力：辦公大樓、高級住房、交通、醫療保健，特別是商品和服務以及技術。我們看到的非應計貸款和分類貸款的成長在很大程度上與這些特定行業存在壓力的跡像一致。

In fact, when you look at our nonaccruals, 21% of our -- 21 of our nonaccruals -- excuse me, 21 credits make up 72% of our nonaccruals, and 18 of those 21 credits are in those 5 sectors that I mentioned. So we did anticipate that we would see some deterioration, and that's been consistent with our expectations.

事實上，當你看看我們的非應計項目時，我們的21%（21 個非應計項目）對不起，21 個貸項占我們非應計項目的72%，而這21 個貸項中的18 個屬於我提到的5 個部門。因此，我們確實預期會出現一些惡化，這與我們的預期一致。

The second thing I'd point to is several quarters ago, we began to set the expectation that we would return to prepandemic historical levels of credit metrics. And specifically, that would be an average charge-off ratio of about 46 basis points, and nonaccruals of 105 basis points. And again, we are -- we have trended back to those ranges, which is consistent with our expectations.

我要指出的第二件事是幾個季度前，我們開始設定信用指標將回到疫情前歷史水準的預期。具體來說，平均沖銷率約為 46 個基點，非應計費用為 105 個基點。再說一次，我們已經回到了這些範圍，這與我們的預期一致。

With regard to the allowance, we go through the process every quarter to ensure that we're properly reserved against expectation for loss in those portfolios. Given that we have a very high degree of visibility into the 21 credits that make up 72% of our nonaccruals, you can expect that we feel very good about our reserve position.

關於準備金，我們每季都會進行一次流程，以確保我們針對這些投資組合的損失預期做好了適當的準備。鑑於我們對佔非應計項目 72% 的 21 個貸項擁有非常高的可見度，您可以預期我們對我們的儲備狀況感覺非常良好。

Okay. Great. And then separately, on the expense front, I know you mentioned that the first quarter should represent the high watermark on expenses. Is that primarily because of the elevated operating losses? Or do you expect some building efficiencies through the remainder the year, either given the backdrop or given the revenue picture?

好的。偉大的。然後，在費用方面，我知道您提到第一季應該代表費用的高水位。這主要是因為營業虧損增加嗎？或者考慮到背景或收入狀況，您是否預計今年剩餘時間會提高一些效率？

John, several things. And we have probably $75 million worth of expense we can point to on different front. So part of it is operational losses that we don't think will repeat. We obviously have the first quarter issues with regards to payroll taxes and things of that nature. We had HR asset valuation that's offset in NIR that's a part of that, too. We have some things in occupancy and professional fees.

約翰，有幾件事。我們可能在不同方面有價值 7500 萬美元的支出。因此，其中一部分是我們認為不會重複的營運損失。顯然，第一季我們遇到了有關工資稅和類似性質的問題。我們的人力資源資產估值在 NIR 中得到了抵消，這也是其中的一部分。我們在入住率和專業費用方面有一些規定。

If you add all that up, it's about $75 million, and we have pretty good confidence that, that won't repeat. We tried to signal that the first quarter was going to be the high watermark and that you couldn't take the $4.1 billion and divide by 4, and we're sticking to that, and we're sticking to our guidance that we have. And we have pretty good confidence. We did take some actions this quarter like we did in the fourth quarter from a severance standpoint.

如果你把所有這些加起來，大約是 7500 萬美元，我們非常有信心這種情況不會重演。我們試圖表明第一季將是高水位線，你不能將 41 億美元除以 4，我們將堅持這一點，我們將堅持我們的指導。我們有很大的信心。從遣散費的角度來看，我們本季確實採取了一些行動，就像我們在第四季所做的那樣。

Now the first quarter has the normal expense of payroll for those folks in addition to the severance. So that won't repeat. So all of that, like I said, adds up to right around $75 million.

現在，除了遣散費外，第一季還有這些人的正常薪資費用。所以就不再重複了。因此，正如我所說，所有這些加起來大約為 7500 萬美元。

And that's just -- we have other opportunities to reduce expenses as well. That's just an indicator of what we can pretty quickly identify it won't repeat.

那隻是——我們還有其他機會來減少開支。這只是我們可以快速識別的指標，它不會重複。

And if I could ask just one follow-up related to that. Is your -- the status of your core systems conversion. Is that still trending as expected in terms of timing and cost?

我是否可以問一個與此相關的後續問題。是你的－你的核心系統轉換的狀態。就時間和成本而言，這仍然是預期的趨勢嗎？

It is. Yes. We, in fact, just had a Board meeting this week and went through all that detail with our Board. We feel good about the project and the progress that we're making and our ability to stay on budget on time.

這是。是的。事實上，我們本週剛剛召開了一次董事會會議，並與董事會討論了所有細節。我們對這個專案、我們正在取得的進展以及我們按時控制預算的能力感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Wondering if we -- David, you could talk a little bit about that bullet you put in on Slide 5 about stable deposit costs, February to March. And what our takeaway should be in terms of mix shift pricing movement, et cetera, and I know you talked about still mid-40s deposit betas, but just what's changing underneath in terms of that stability that you're starting to see?

想知道我們是否——大衛，您可以談談您在幻燈片 5 上添加的有關 2 月至 3 月穩定存款成本的項目符號。我們的結論應該是混合轉移定價運動等方面，我知道您談到了 40 年代中期的存款貝塔值，但您開始看到的穩定性方面到底發生了什麼變化？

Yes. Part of -- one of the big reasons we put that in there is because our deposit cost change was higher than what you're seeing from peers, but that's because of what we did in the fourth quarter, and you had a full quarter effect of that.

是的。我們把它放在那裡的一個重要原因是我們的存款成本變化高於您從同行那裡看到的，但這是因為我們在第四季度所做的事情，並且您產生了整個季度的影響的。

Now that we've kind of got that baked into the base, and we start seeing offers and things of that nature on the deposit offerings coming down, the exit in February and March gives us a lot of confidence that those deposit costs are stabilizing and therefore, we have a lot of confidence in our cumulative beta band in the mid-40s. So a couple of more points from where we are today.

現在我們已經將這一點融入了基礎，並且我們開始看到存款產品的報價和類似性質的事情正在下降，二月和三月的退出給了我們很大的信心，即這些存款成本正在穩定，並且因此，我們對40 多歲的累積Beta 區間充滿信心。與我們今天的情況相比，還有幾點。

Okay. And I guess as a follow-up, are you starting to change pricing, change offers, bring in duration? What are you doing in terms of trying to take that point further?

好的。我想作為後續行動，您是否開始改變定價、改變報價、延長期限？為了進一步推進這一點，您正在做什麼？

Yes, that's a good point, Kenneth. So yes, we started that last quarter. Actually, we had some CD maturities coming that were longer dated 12-, 13-month CDs and we went shorter in the 5- to 7-month range that to be able to reprice those this year with the original expectation the rates would be coming down sooner than they probably are now. And so -- yes.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點，肯尼斯。所以，是的，我們從上個季度開始。實際上，我們即將推出一些期限較長的 12 個月、13 個月 CD，並且我們縮短了 5 至 7 個月的期限，以便能夠按照最初的預期對今年的利率進行重新定價。早下降。所以——是的。

And we can see from a competitive standpoint, we want to be competitive, we don't have to lead with price, but we do need to be fair and balanced. And so you're starting to see the benefit of having the promotional rates coming down here.

我們可以從競爭的角度來看，我們希望具有競爭力，我們不必以價格領先，但我們確實需要公平和平衡。因此，您開始看到促銷價格下降的好處。

Okay. And on that last point about the higher for longer, you've talked about the $12 billion to $14 billion of fixed rate production for a while now and you say that's per year. Has the benefit from that also -- does that get better and higher for longer? And how does that differ when you think about this year versus next year?

好的。關於最後一點，關於更高的時間更長，你已經談論了 120 億至 140 億美元的固定利率生產一段時間了，你說這是每年。這樣做也有好處嗎——它會在更長時間內變得更好、更高嗎？當您考慮今年與明年時，這有何不同？

Yes, I would say marginally higher for longer because you have a lot of securities that are repricing, that we're picking up about 235 basis points today. We're picking up, call it, 125 basis points on the loan side.

是的，我想說的是，在較長時間內會略微走高，因為有很多證券正在重新定價，今天我們的漲幅約為 235 個基點。我們在貸款方面增加了 125 個基點。

So if you get -- and we expect to get the deposit costs stabilized then you don't -- then the repricing can actually start overwhelming the costs that you had on the deposit side. That has not been the case thus far. It's been just the opposite. So you're going to see that turn, which is why we're calling the bottom for us in the second quarter.

因此，如果你得到——我們希望存款成本能夠穩定下來，但你沒有——那麼重新定價實際上可能會開始壓倒你在存款方面的成本。到目前為止，情況並非如此。事實恰恰相反。所以你會看到這種轉變，這就是為什麼我們在第二季宣布觸底。

Our next question comes from the line of Dave Rochester with Compass Point.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dave Rochester 和 Compass Point 的線路。

Just on credit regarding the large restaurant credit and the commercial manufacturing credit, could you guys quantify the impacts on net charge-offs and provision this quarter? And if you could just give some additional background on where you are in the resolution process there, that'd be great.

僅就大型餐廳信貸和商業製造信貸而言，你們能否量化本季對淨沖銷和撥備的影響？如果您能提供一些額外的背景資訊來說明您在解決過程中所處的位置，那就太好了。

So if you were to look at those two added together, just those two made about 7 basis points of charge-offs. So if we didn't have those two, our 50 would have been 43.

因此，如果你將這兩者加在一起，你會發現光是這兩者就產生了大約 7 個基點的沖銷。所以如果我們沒有這兩個，我們的 50 就會變成 43。

Great. And then where are you guys in the process of resolving those?

偉大的。那麼你們在解決這些問題的過程中又在哪裡呢？

Say that again?

再說一次？

Where are you in the process of resolving those credits?

您在解決這些信用問題的過程中處於什麼階段？

They're both still being worked out.

他們都還在研究中。

Okay. And I guess just bigger picture with you reiterating the net charge-off guide here for the year of 40 to 50 bps, you're at the high end of that right now. So you're expecting that to either remain stable here or decline through the end of the year, and you have confidence around that?

好的。我想，從更大的角度來看，您在這裡重申了今年 40 至 50 個基點的淨沖銷指南，您現在正處於最高水平。因此，您預計這一數字要么保持穩定，要么在年底前下降，您對此有信心嗎？

Yes, we do.

是的，我們願意。

Great. And then just switching to deposits with the recent inflation data that's been elevated and the shift to expectations to fewer rate cuts this year, are you noticing any impact from any of that on your corporate deposit customers' behavior at all? Are you seeing any change in activity there? And does that impact your expected range of NIB remix at all for the year?

偉大的。然後，隨著通膨數據最近的上升以及今年降息預期的轉變，您是否注意到這些對您的企業存款客戶的行為有任何影響？您發現那裡的活動有任何變化嗎？這是否會影響您今年 NIB 混音的預期範圍？

No. Our NIB largely comes from our consumer base. We do obviously have a big NIB on the commercial side. I think folks that were going to move out of NIB to seek rate have done so. And we think that that's why we're calling for our NIB to decline a little bit but still stay in the low 30% range.

不會。顯然，我們在商業方面確實有一個很大的 NIB。我認為那些打算離開 NIB 尋求利率的人已經這樣做了。我們認為這就是為什麼我們要求 NIB 略有下降，但仍保持在 30% 的低水平範圍內。

And they all just want to maintain a little bit more liquidity going into a cycle that still has uncertainty, geopolitical risk, our own elections this year. But no, I don't think from an inflation standpoint, we're going to see a huge change from NIB.

他們都只是想在一個仍然存在不確定性、地緣政治風險和今年我們自己的選舉的周期中保持更多的流動性。但不，我認為從通膨的角度來看，我們不會看到 NIB 發生巨大變化。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Was just wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on some of the fee trends the deposit service charges were up nicely. And I know the treasury management is a big part and a positive driver, but there is weaker seasonality. So I was wondering if you can scale that out.

只是想知道您是否可以詳細說明一些費用趨勢，存款服務費上漲得很好。我知道財務管理是一個重要組成部分，也是一個積極的驅動因素，但季節性較弱。所以我想知道你是否可以擴展它。

Yes. So if you look at -- just talk about fee revenue across different parts of the business. Treasury management is up 7% year-over-year, and that's a reflection both of increases in fees and increases in relationships and activities.

是的。因此，如果你看一下——只需談論業務不同部分的費用收入。資金管理年增 7%，這不僅反映了費用的增加，也反映了關係和活動的增加。

So the nice growth in that business. Similarly, wealth management is up over 6% year-over-year, which is both reflective of increases in asset valuations and increases in assets held for customers increasing relationships. We also saw a really nice increase in mortgage activity during the quarter, and we would expect that to continue.

所以該業務的成長勢頭良好。同樣，財富管理業務年增超過 6%，這不僅反映了資產估值的成長，也反映了為客戶持有的資產的增加，從而增強了客戶關係。我們也看到本季抵押貸款活動出現了非常好的成長，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。

Consumer fees are down modestly, and that's a reflection really of the implementation of all the changes we've made to benefit customers with respect to overdrafts. And more specifically, as a result of the implementation of overdraft grades, we've seen about a 25% reduction in the number of customers who are actually overdrawn. So that is resulting in some decline in fee revenue, offset by our -- currently by interchange activity and customers use of their debit cards.

消費者費用小幅下降，這實際上反映了我們為使客戶在透支方面受益而做出的所有變更的實施。更具體地說，由於實施透支等級，我們發現實際透支的客戶數量減少了約 25%。因此，這導致費用收入下降，但被我們目前的交換活動和客戶使用借記卡所抵消。

So generally, fee income is solid. We're seeing good growth in the wholesale parts of our business and in wealth management that reflect growth in relationships and growth in activities.

所以總的來說，費用收入是穩定的。我們看到我們業務的批發部分和財富管理業務取得了良好的成長，這反映了關係的成長和活動的成長。

Okay. And then capital markets, that also came in strong, and I think you've had this like $60 million to $80 million range in the past with wind for upside. And yes, just talk to, were there any deals that -- just talk to how sustainable you think that is? Obviously, it's somewhat market dependent, but a little more color on the 1Q driver there and the thoughts going forward.

好的。然後資本市場也表現強勁，我認為過去曾有過 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的價格區間，並且有上升空間。是的，只要談談，是否有任何交易——只要談談你認為這有多可持續？顯然，這在一定程度上取決於市場，但對 1Q 驅動器以及未來的想法有更多的了解。

Yes. I think we still stick to that range generally and incorporate our expectations for capital markets into the broader guidance of around $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion in adjusted NIR. But we do see good pipelines. Capital markets activity is picking up. There's more M&A activity. We're seeing more customers go to the institutional market to raise debt, which has been helpful.

是的。我認為我們總體上仍然堅持這個範圍，並將我們對資本市場的預期納入調整後 NIR 約 23 億至 24 億美元的更廣泛指導中。但我們確實看到了良好的管道。資本市場活動正在回升。併購活動更多。我們看到越來越多的客戶進入機構市場籌集債務，這很有幫助。

Our M&A activity was pretty diverse during the quarter. And then real estate capital markets, which is a really important business for us is also very active. And so we feel pretty good about the $60 million to $80 million range for the quarter.

本季我們的併購活動相當多元。然後房地產資本市場，這對我們來說非常重要的業務也非常活躍。因此，我們對本季 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元的範圍感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gerard Cassidy 與加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的對話。

Gerard, before you ask your question, let me clean something up from a question that just came up in terms of the, what's the charge-off percentage would have been had we not had those two large credits. I said 7 basis points. It's 13 basis points actually. So we would have been at 37 had we not had those two. I didn't do the math correctly. I just want to make sure that gets fixed in the transcript.

傑拉德，在你問問題之前，讓我從剛剛提出的問題中清理一些內容，如果我們沒有這兩個大額信用，沖銷百分比會是多少。我說7個基點。其實是13個基點。如果沒有這兩個人的話，我們現在已經是 37 歲了。我沒有正確計算。我只是想確保這一點在文字記錄中得到解決。

Very good. All set?

非常好。可以了，好了？

Gerard, fire away.

杰拉德，開火。

Can you give us an update where the proposal is going for the long-term debt? And when do you think that will be finalized in the NPR that's out there?

您能否向我們介紹該提案用於長期債務的最新情況？您認為 NPR 何時會最終確定這一點？

And second, as part of that, what your latest estimate is? I know you've given us some color on this in the past, but what's your latest estimate and what it might cost you once you have to -- and your peers, of course, have to issue the debt and carry higher levels of debt?

其次，作為其中的一部分，您的最新估計是多少？我知道您過去曾就此向我們提供過一些信息，但您的最新估計是多少，一旦您不得不這樣做，您可能會付出什麼代價——當然，您的同行必鬚髮行債務並承擔更高水平的債務？

Yes. So Gerard, the whole Basel III and long-term debt has kind of gone into a little bit of a hold at the time. We're not sure when that will get taken care of. We suspect it will be this year at some point. The proposal on debt was to have 6% of RWA, which is about $7 billion for us. To give you credit for what you have outstanding, which is a couple of billion. So you're talking about raising $5 billion.

是的。所以，傑拉德，整個巴塞爾協議 III 和長期債務當時有點被擱置了。我們不確定什麼時候會得到解決。我們懷疑這將是今年的某個時候。關於債務的提議是 RWA 的 6%，這對我們來說大約是 70 億美元。為您的未償還債務（數十億美元）提供信用。所以你說的是籌 50 億美元。

We can leverage that and put it to work. And it wasn't a terrible drag on NII, less than 1% drag on NII for us. It's fully implemented and this was going to take time to do that. We need to have some -- our $2 billion of existing long-term debt is -- it's something we were going to address just in a natural order of things. But with loan growth being muted, there's no need to go out and raise debt if you don't have to have it.

我們可以利用這一點並將其付諸實踐。這對 NII 的拖累並不嚴重，對我們來說，對 NII 的拖累不到 1%。它已經完全實施，這需要時間。我們需要一些——我們現有的 20 億美元長期債務——這是我們要按照自然順序解決的問題。但隨著貸款成長放緩，如果不需要的話，就沒有必要出去舉債。

We're hoping that the proposal cuts down from the 6% number. There's been talk of it maybe being in the 2% to 3% range of RWA, but we don't know. We'll just have to adapt and overcome when the new rule gets put out.

我們希望提案能夠減少 6% 的數字。有人說它可能在 RWA 的 2% 到 3% 範圍內，但我們不知道。當新規則出台時，我們只需要適應和克服。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, you've been very clear about the identification of the stress portfolios with credit. In your prepared comments, David, you mentioned that some of the increase in the nonperformers was due to -- I think you said, yes, some of it was due to the downgrades in certain -- in those industries that you have identified. Can you share with us what -- within those downgrades, what process -- or not the process, but what caused the downgrades? Was it debt service coverage? Was it the business, the borrowers' business is deteriorating for some reason? Can you give a little more color on the downgrade part of that?

非常好。作為後續行動，您已經非常清楚地識別了信貸壓力投資組合。大衛，在你準備好的評論中，你提到不良企業的增加是由於——我想你說過，是的，其中一些是由於某些行業的評級下調——在你所確定的行業中。您能否與我們分享一下，在這些降級中，什麼過程，或不是過程，但是什麼導致了降級？是償債保險嗎？是生意的問題嗎，借款人的生意因為某些原因惡化了？您能否對降級部分提供更多說明？

Gerard, usually, we're seeing strength in consumers and businesses in general. There are pockets of stressed industries that John mentioned earlier. I think at the end of the day, they seem to be more idiosyncratic to the business model of that borrower, and these are valuation charges that are being taken. And so you don't have any one -- when you kind of cut to the chase, you think about credit risk actually being fairly good right now, but you're going to have these pockets -- these one-off pockets, as I just mentioned, just two credits for us. It's a big deal in terms of the effect on the charge-off percentage. So -- and we don't see it as a contagion as much as we see it as an idiosyncratic business issue.

傑拉德，通常情況下，我們會看到消費者和企業的整體實力。約翰之前提到過，有一些行業面臨壓力。我認為歸根結底，他們似乎對借款人的商業模式更加特殊，而這些都是正在收取的估值費用。所以你沒有任何一個 - 當你切入正題時，你認為信用風險現在實際上相當不錯，但你將擁有這些口袋 - 這些一次性口袋，就像我剛才提到，我們只需獲得兩個學分。就對沖銷百分比的影響而言，這是一件大事。因此，我們並不將其視為一種傳染病，而是將其視為一個特殊的商業問題。

I see. So it wasn't really like across the board, the higher rate environment for these downgrades really affected it, but it was more idiosyncratic for each one of the borrowers.

我懂了。因此，這並不是真正全面的，這些降級的較高利率環境確實對其產生了影響，但對於每個借款人來說都更加特殊。

I think the one exception to that, Gerard, would be transportation where we are seeing that industry, particularly the truckload industry and smaller borrowers is under some stress and valuations -- equipment valuations are also under stress. I mean, obviously, if you think about real estate-related portfolios, office and senior housing, in particular, you can understand why those are also under stress, but transportation would be the one area where I would say it feels like across that industry for the truckload related. The less in truckload businesses are still doing okay, but truckload-related carriers are having challenges.

傑拉德，我認為唯一的例外是交通運輸業，我們看到該行業，特別是卡車運輸業和小型借款人面臨一些壓力和估值——設備估值也面臨壓力。我的意思是，顯然，如果您考慮與房地產相關的投資組合，特別是辦公大樓和高級住房，您就可以理解為什麼這些也面臨壓力，但我認為交通運輸將是整個行業的一個領域與卡車裝載相關。零擔業務仍然表現良好，但與整車相關的承運人卻面臨挑戰。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Spahr with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯多福‧斯帕爾 (Christopher Spahr)。

So my question is just relating to the shift in loan mix over the last few years, particularly with EnerBank and comparing it to the average prepandemic charge-offs. And kind of your thoughts on where you think the mix would have -- has shifted a little bit and might have impacted the comparisons. And then just thoughts about the EnerBank kind of portfolio itself, it seems to be holding up a little bit better than expected.

所以我的問題只是與過去幾年貸款組合的變化有關，特別是 EnerBank 的貸款組合，並將其與大流行前的平均沖銷進行比較。你對混合的想法已經發生了一些變化，可能會影響比較。再想想 EnerBank 類型的投資組合本身，它的表現似乎比預期好一些。

Well, let me couch it in terms of just our overall portfolio from a CECL standpoint. So if you go back to prepandemic, so the fourth quarter 2019, when we all implemented CECL, our CECL reserve at that time was 1.71%. If you adjust that for the portfolio we have today, so there's pluses and minuses, just a completely different mix, and apply those same loss rates to our current portfolio, that would imply a seasonal reserve of 162. I think that's on one of our slides.

好吧，讓我從 CECL 的角度來談談我們的整體投資組合。所以如果你回到大流行前，那麼2019年第四季度，當我們都實施CECL時，我們當時的CECL準備金是1.71%。如果你對我們今天的投資組合進行調整，那麼就有優點和缺點，只是完全不同的組合，並將相同的損失率應用於我們當前的投資組合，這將意味著162 的季節性儲備。這是我們的一張幻燈片。

And so I think at the end of the day, we have pretty robust reserves to cover expected losses. The stress portfolios that we've talked about are our driver. The lower FICO bands of consumer have more pressure on it than the rest of the consumer base. And some of the portfolios that we've added, whether it be EnerBank or Ascentium, those are higher-yield portfolios, and they have higher loss content. In both cases, we had those two portfolios, EnerBank and Ascentium at, call it, 2%, 2.5% expectation, and they're performing in line with that.

因此，我認為歸根結底，我們擁有相當強勁的儲備來彌補預期損失。我們所討論的壓力組合是我們的驅動力。 FICO 等級較低的消費者比其他消費者群體承受的壓力更大。我們加入的一些投資組合，無論是 EnerBank 還是 Ascentium，都是收益較高的投資組合，而且損失含量也較高。在這兩種情況下，我們都有這兩個投資組合，分別是 EnerBank 和 Ascentium，分別為 2%、2.5% 的預期，它們的表現與此一致。

So -- and I think it gets back to the fact that businesses and consumers, generally speaking, are in pretty good shape. So we've been real careful making sure we don't grow too fast in those portfolios. And so far, everything is worth according to plan.

因此，我認為這又回到了這樣一個事實：總體而言，企業和消費者的狀況相當良好。因此，我們一直非常小心，確保我們在這些投資組合中不會成長得太快。到目前為止，一切都按計劃進行。

Our final question comes from the line of Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Peter Winter 和 D.A.戴維森。

Just one quick question. Last quarter, you mentioned an exit rate for the NIM around 360. I'm just wondering if you're still comfortable with that? Just on the one hand, you're building more liquidity, but then you did the securities restructuring.

只是一個簡單的問題。上個季度，您提到 NIM 的退出率約為 360。一方面，你正在建立更多的流動性，但隨後你進行了證券重組。

Yes. I think whether we get -- we should get pretty close to that number still. Again, we're not counting on rates being a huge driver. Incrementally, though, if we have the long end that stays higher than our reinvestment yields are a little bit better. And if short rates come down, then our negative carry on, our swap book will be helped and that could propel us.

是的。我認為無論我們是否得到——我們仍然應該非常接近這個數字。同樣，我們並不指望利率成為一個巨大的推動因素。不過，逐漸地，如果我們的長期收益維持高於再投資報酬率，那就會好一點。如果短期利率下降，那麼我們的負結轉、我們的掉期帳簿將會得到幫助，這可能會推動我們前進。

So I would say the upper 350s to 360, we are carrying a bit more cash. You probably saw that, just out an abundance of caution given the events of last quarter. And while that cash doesn't really hurt us from an NII standpoint, it does hurt us from a margin standpoint.

所以我想說，在 350 到 360 的上層，我們攜帶的現金更多。鑑於上個季度發生的事件，您可能已經看到了這一點，只是出於謹慎的考慮。雖然從國家資訊基礎設施的角度來看，這些現金並沒有真正傷害我們，但從利潤的角度來看，它確實傷害了我們。

And so we still should have one of the leading margins regardless because we have a lot of confidence in our funding costs kind of settling down.

因此，無論如何，我們仍然應該擁有領先的利潤率之一，因為我們對我們的融資成本穩定下來充滿信心。

Got it. And how much benefit do you get from the securities restructuring on the margin?

知道了。而你從融資融券重組中獲得了多少利益？

Well, cost is, round number, $50 million, and it's a payback of 2.1 years. So you can do quick math. You mean on margins? It's a couple of basis points of positive.

嗯，成本約為 5000 萬美元，投資回收期為 2.1 年。所以你可以快速做數學題。你是說邊緣？這是幾個正面的基點。

Mr. Turner, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

特納先生，我現在想把發言權交還給您，請您發表總結意見。

Okay. Well, thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your interest in our company. That concludes the call.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天的參與。我們感謝您對我們公司的興趣。通話結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。