Redfin Corp (RDFN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Redfin Corporation Q4 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to the Head of Investor Relations, Meg Nunnally. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管梅格·納納利 (Meg Nunnally)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝您，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季財務業績電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長 Glenn Kelman；以及我們的財務長 Chris Nielsen。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信與這些前瞻性陳述相關的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會有重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures while discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com for more information relating to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against continuing operations for the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論財務績效的同時介紹非公認會計準則指標。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 investor.redfin.com 上查閱，以獲取有關我們的非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關對帳。本次電話會議中進行的所有比較均與去年同期的持續經營情況進行比較，除非另有說明。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call, and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束後在我們的網站上提供我們準備好的發言的副本，並且完整的記錄和音頻重播也將在電話會議結束後不久提供。

With that, I'll turn it over to Glenn.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給格倫。

Thanks, Meg, and hi, everyone. Redfin's fourth quarter earnings were in the middle of the range we gave investors in our last call, a $23 million net loss on $218 million of revenue. Our adjusted EBITDA loss for continuing operations was $13 million, a $27 million improvement over the fourth quarter of 2022.

謝謝，梅格，大家好。 Redfin 第四季的收益處於我們上次電話會議中向投資者給出的範圍的中間，即 2.18 億美元的營收中，淨虧損 2,300 萬美元。我們調整後的持續經營 EBITDA 虧損為 1,300 萬美元，比 2022 年第四季減少了 2,700 萬美元。

The fourth quarter's only disappointment was a market share decline. The share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents was 0.72% down from 0.76% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and from 0.78% in the third quarter of 2023. Our market share already recovered in January, increasing above the fourth quarter level.

第四季唯一令人失望的是市場佔有率的下降。由我們自己的代理商和透過合作代理商推薦的代理商促成的房屋銷售份額為 0.72%，低於 2022 年第四季的 0.76% 和 2023 年第三季的 0.78%。

We expect share gains to continue in 2024, with much of the revenue from that gain falling to the bottom line. We ended 2023 having lowered full year operating expenses by $62 million, with fourth quarter gross margins improving from 25% in 2022 to 34% in 2023. And we have ample opportunities to grow, using Comscore to compare redfin.com's online audience to that of our 2 main historical rivals, redfin.com grew 13 points faster in 2023.

我們預計 2024 年股價將繼續上漲，但上漲帶來的大部分收入將落入利潤中。截至 2023 年，我們將全年營運費用降低了 6,200 萬美元，第四季度毛利率從 2022 年的 25% 提高到 2023 年的 34%。第四季度毛利率從 2022 年的 25% 提高到 2023 年的 34%。

The grow sales alongside traffic, we've advanced 3 initiatives to attract better agents and deliver better service. In some pilot markets, we shifted our agents to all variable pay. In others, we restored commission refunds for customers who signed a buyer's agency agreement. In still others, we've required our sales people to meet customers on their first tour. Our agents have embraced these initiatives. And already, we're closing more sales. These initiatives are now being broadened to yield a financially meaningful impact in the summer, with all 3 likely to be nationwide by early 2025.

為了在增加流量的同時增加銷售額，我們採取了三項措施來吸引更好的代理商並提供更好的服務。在一些試辦市場，我們將代理商的薪酬全部改為浮動薪資。在其他情況下，我們恢復了簽署買方代理協議的客戶的佣金退款。還有一些情況下，我們要求銷售人員在第一次參觀時與客戶見面。我們的代理商已經接受了這些措施。而且我們已完成更多銷售。目前，這些措施正在擴大範圍，以在夏季產生具有經濟意義的影響，到 2025 年初，這三項措施很可能將在全國推行。

In the meantime, we're working hard to introduce more customers to our brokerage. According to Comscore, fourth quarter visitors to redfin.com grew 10% year-over-year, while the growth rates of our 2 main historical rivals were 1% and negative 1%. One factor driving our growth is expansion, once limited to homebuyers in mostly coastal cities, redfin.com now spans homes for rent and for sale nationwide. The markets we've opened by adding listings give us room to build our audience for years to come. And redfin.com keeps getting better, not just bigger. In the fourth quarter, we became the first major site to use artificial intelligence for home shoppers to visualize how a home could be redecorated, first, in mid-Atlantic markets, but with plans to expand this spring.

同時，我們正在努力為我們的經紀業務引入更多的客戶。根據 Comscore 的數據顯示，redfin.com 在第四季度訪問量年增 10%，而我們兩個主要歷史競爭對手的成長率分別為 1% 和-1%。推動我們成長的一個因素是擴張，redfin.com 曾經僅限於沿海城市的購屋者，現在覆蓋全國範圍內的房屋出租和出售。透過添加列表，我們開放的市場為我們未來幾年擴大受眾群體提供了空間。 redfin.com 不僅規模更大，而且越來越好。在第四季度，我們成為第一個使用人工智慧為購屋者展示如何重新裝修房屋的大型網站，首先在大西洋中部市場，但我們計劃在今年春季擴大規模。

Redfin.com is also surfacing more of our agents' local expertise, giving greater prominence to our insights about homes we've toured and capturing new insights about the neighborhood. Here too, we're exploring the use of artificial intelligence, turning raw notes from an agent's phone into a well-phrased comment. Publishing this proprietary information should draw more visitors to our site, and we hope convince more of those visitors to use a Redfin agent. But to compete for sales, not just traffic, we're expanding the 3 fourth quarter initiatives identified at the outset of our call. Since our sales cycle is 6 months, we won't know for sure how well these initiatives are working until April at best, but the early indications could hardly be better.

Redfin.com 也展示了更多我們代理商的本地專業知識，更加突出我們對所參觀房屋的見解，並獲取有關社區的新見解。在這裡，我們也在探索使用人工智慧，將代理人手機中的原始筆記轉化為措辭恰當的評論。發布這些專有資訊應該會吸引更多的訪客造訪我們的網站，我們希望說服更多的訪客使用 Redfin 代理商。但為了爭奪銷售額而不僅僅是流量，我們正在擴大在電話會議開始時確定的 3 項第四季計畫。由於我們的銷售週期為 6 個月，我們最多要到 4 月才能確切知道這些措施的效果如何，但早期跡像已經非常明顯。

The most significant of these initiatives is Redfin Next, which replaces agent's base salaries with higher commissions. We launched this program as Redfin Max, but changed its name to avoid any confusion with RE/MAX. As of February 22, the revenue closed for January and February in the 4 California markets piloting Next is up 32% year-over-year, while the rest of the brokerage is down 1%. In May, we plan to expand Redfin Next to 7 more markets out of more than 100 Redfin markets total. With the expansion, Next we will reach markets that accounted for about 1/3 of Redfin's 2023 brokerage revenues. If the second stage of the pilot goes well, Redfin Next could become our Redfin-wide agent-pay plan in early 2025.

這些舉措中最重要的就是 Redfin Next，它用更高的佣金取代經紀人的基本工資。我們以 Redfin Max 的名稱推出了該計劃，但為了避免與 RE/MAX 混淆，我們更改了其名稱。截至2月22日，試辦Next的加州4個市場1月和2月收盤營收年增32%，其餘經紀公司則下降了1%。 5 月份，我們計劃將 Redfin Next 市場擴展到另外 7 個（Redfin 總共 100 多個市場）。隨著擴張，接下來我們將進入佔 Redfin 2023 年經紀收入約 1/3 的市場。如果試辦第二階段進展順利，Redfin Next 可能會在 2025 年初成為我們全 Redfin 的代理商付費方案。

The Next agents we're hiring are coming in large part for the opportunity to meet more customers, but will earn traditional splits on the customers they source themselves. Hiring agents who aren't entirely dependent on our site makes Redfin more resilient to housing market volatility, especially now that we've replaced salaries with larger bonuses.

我們招募的 Next 代理商很大程度上是為了有機會認識更多的客戶，但他們將從自己尋找的客戶身上獲得傳統的分成。僱用不完全依賴我們網站的經紀人使得 Redfin 更能抵禦房地產市場的波動，特別是現在我們已經用更大的獎金取代了工資。

In the 4 pilot markets, a Next agent is profitable after closing 4 Redfin sourced sales per year compared to 7 previously. As we gather more data on how many customer introductions our Next agents need to be productive, we can be even more aggressive about hiring in 2025. This gives us room to gain share coming out of downturns while limiting our fixed cost headed into downturns. We've had the most success bringing on agents who already know how to be systematic about online opportunities. One Next agent who had been paying a portal $10,000 to $15,000 per month said "he planned to see how it went here at Redfin for a couple of months. But within a few weeks, I started bringing over my team." Another said "she never had so much support to run my business. I'm busy in getting good customers from the site."

在 4 個試點市場中，Next 代理商每年完成 4 筆 Redfin 銷售後即可實現盈利，而之前需要 7 筆。隨著我們收集到更多關於我們的 Next 代理需要多少客戶介紹才能提高效率的數據，我們可以在 2025 年更積極地招聘。我們最成功的是引進了那些已經懂得如何有系統地利用網路機會的代理商。一位 Next 經紀人每月向門戶網站支付 10,000 至 15,000 美元，他說：“他計劃先觀察一下 Redfin 幾個月的情況。但幾週後，我就開始帶我的團隊過來了。”另一位網友表示，“她從來沒有給我提供過這麼多的支持來經營我的生意。我正忙著從網站上吸引優質客戶。”

Beyond Next, the brokerage's other 2 initiatives work together to earn a sale from the first meeting between a customer and an agent. All You Can Meet requires a Redfin agent to meet customers on their first home tour and Sign-and-Save restores commission refunds to homebuyers who hire us after that first tour. We tested each in different pilot markets in part to understand if an emphasis on meeting customers could drive sales gains by itself without a commission refund.

Beyond Next，該經紀公司的另外兩項措施共同努力，從客戶和代理商的第一次見面開始就促成銷售。 All You Can Meet 要求 Redfin 代理在客戶首次看房時與他們會面，而 Sign-and-Save 則會向在首次看房後僱用我們的購房者退還佣金。我們在不同的試點市場進行了測試，部分是為了了解在沒有佣金退還的情況下，是否重視滿足客戶本身就可以推動銷售成長。

The problem these 2 initiatives address is that portal visitors use agents as a home touring service. Customers who are -- or excuse me, consumers who were once likely to hire the first agent they met now use Redfin and other website to schedule 3 different tours with 3 different agents. To honor so many tour requests, Redfin uses contractors to handle tours when our employees are unavailable. All-you-can-meet assigns customers only to lead agents who make themselves available to host the customer's first tour. Agents with more availability get more customers. We still use contractors for subsequent tours, but in the event a lead agent can't break free to host the first tour, we route the customer to a partner agent at a different brokerage, which pays us a referral fee.

這兩項措施要解決的問題是門戶網站訪客使用代理商作為家庭旅遊服務。那些曾經很可能會聘請他們遇到的第一位代理人的客戶，現在卻使用 Redfin 和其他網站與 3 位不同的代理人安排 3 次不同的旅行。為了滿足如此多的參觀請求，當我們的員工無法提供服務時，Redfin 會使用承包商來處理參觀請求。 All-you-can-meet 只會將客戶分配給願意接待客戶首次旅遊的首席代理商。具有更多空閒時間的代理商會獲得更多的客戶。我們仍會聘用承包商負責後續的旅遊，但是如果首席代理商無法抽出時間負責第一次旅遊，我們會將客戶轉介給另一家經紀公司的合作代理商，他們會向我們支付介紹費。

Since we launched the All-You-Can-Meet initiative on November 15, 2023, Redfin agents in the 4 pilot markets have gone from hosting 60% to 65% of first tours to hosting virtually all of them. Just last week, we expanded this initiative to reach more than 50 markets. Our Atlanta market manager says it has restored lead agent as the face of Redfin.

自 2023 年 11 月 15 日我們啟動「無限會面」計畫以來，4 個試點市場的 Redfin 代理商已從接待 60% 到 65% 的首次旅行發展到接待幾乎所有的首次旅行。就在上週，我們擴大了這項計劃，涵蓋了 50 多個市場。我們的亞特蘭大市場經理表示，已經恢復首席代理商作為 Redfin 的代言人。

Meeting customers on their first tour sets up the Redfin agent to offer a commission refund of 0.25% to 0.5% to customers who hire us before their second home tour. We memorialize the hiring decision and the refund amount in a buyer's agency agreement. Restoring refunds is a reversal for Redfin as we had concluded in the fall of 2022 that refunds were not an effective sales tool. But we believe that was because many agents didn't use the refund as a sales tool, rarely mentioning it to customers, and never asking customers for a commitment in exchange for the refund. We now expect agents to discuss the refund on the first tour. The customers can decide whether it's worthwhile to sign the buyer's agency agreement before the next tour. Our guess is that about half our sales will come from customers who sign the agreement and get the refund and half will come from customers who later decide to work with us without a refund.

Redfin 代理商在客戶首次參觀時與他們會面，並向在第二次參觀房屋之前聘請我們的客戶提供 0.25% 至 0.5% 的佣金返還。我們在買方代理協議中記錄僱用決定和退款金額。恢復退款對 Redfin 來說是一種逆轉，因為我們在 2022 年秋季得出結論，退款不是有效的銷售工具。但我們認為，這是因為許多代理商沒有將退款作為銷售手段，很少向客戶提及，也從不要求客戶做出退款承諾。我們現在希望代理商在第一次巡迴演出時討論退款事宜。客戶可以在下次旅行之前決定是否值得簽署買方代理協議。我們猜測，大約一半的銷售額將來自簽署協議並獲得退款的客戶，另一半將來自後來決定與我們合作但不退款的客戶。

This customer incentive, known as Sign-and-Save, launched in 4 markets on September 21 and is already increasing sales. By comparing close rate gains in pilot markets and control markets, we concluded that pilot market homebuyers are 24% more likely to write a winning offer via Redfin within 60 days of their first tour. The 24% increase spanned customers who signed the agreement to get a refund and those who didn't, it's easily large enough to offset the cost of the refund for those customers who got it.

這項名為「簽名並保存」的客戶激勵計畫於 9 月 21 日在 4 個市場推出，並且已經帶來了銷售的成長。透過比較試點市場和控制市場的成交利率漲幅，我們得出結論，試點市場的購屋者在首次參觀後 60 天內透過 Redfin 提出中標報價的可能性高出 24%。簽署退款協議的客戶和未簽署退款協議的客戶均增加了 24%，足以抵消退款的客戶的退款成本。

In March, we plan to expand the pilot to almost every market, excluding only markets in a handful of states that outlaw commission refunds. We believe a more motivated Next agent set up by our system to meet every customer, with an offer a few other brokerages can match, will deliver significantly better results.

三月份，我們計劃將試點範圍擴大到幾乎所有市場，僅排除少數幾個禁止佣金退還的州的市場。我們相信，我們的系統會設定一個更有動力的 Next 代理來滿足每位客戶的需求，並提供其他一些經紀公司可以匹敵的優惠，從而帶來更好的結果。

Bay Equity, the lender we acquired in April 2022 is also improving sales execution. In the fourth quarter, a higher proportion of our brokerages homebuyers used Bay Equity for a mortgage. Attach rates have declined from 19% in the second quarter to 18% in the third before bouncing back to 19% in the fourth.

我們在 2022 年 4 月收購的貸款機構 Bay Equity 也正在提高銷售執行力。第四季度，我們經紀公司的購屋者中，使用 Bay Equity 辦理抵押貸款的比例更高。附加利率從第二季的19%下降到第三季的18%，然後在第四季反彈至19%。

Excluding cash buyers, Bay Equity's fourth quarter attach rate was 25%, up from 22% in the third quarter and 24% in the second. Projected attach rates for the first quarter of 2024 are even higher. We expect that growth to continue through the rest of 2024, driven by simpler manager incentives and in markets where the law allows it, new agent incentives. We've also integrated Bay Equity deeper into our sales process, automatically alerting loan officers not only when a customer first asks to tour a home, but also now when her offer has been accepted.

不包括現金買家，Bay Equity 第四季的附加率為 25%，高於第三季的 22% 和第二季的 24%。 2024 年第一季的預期附加率甚至會更高。我們預計，在更簡單的管理人員激勵措施以及法律允許的市場中的新代理商激勵措施的推動下，這種增長將持續到 2024 年剩餘時間。我們還將 Bay Equity 更深入地融入我們的銷售流程中，不僅在客戶首次要求參觀房屋時自動提醒貸款人員，而且現在當客戶出價被接受時也會自動提醒貸款人員。

Another basis for optimism is the lending industry itself, which has reduced staff to the point that competitors have been less willing to lose money on loans, giving us room in 2024 for improving gains on sale. If rates ease further in the back half of the year, we also expect to refinance more mortgages with demand coming from our website, but also from our database of past customers.

另一個樂觀的基礎是貸款行業本身，該行業已經減少了員工，以至於競爭對手不太願意在貸款上虧錢，這為我們在 2024 年提高銷售收益提供了空間。如果今年下半年利率進一步下降，我們預計將為更多抵押貸款提供再融資，需求不僅來自我們的網站，也來自我們過去客戶的資料庫。

Potential improvements in the for-sale market may buoy our brokerage and lending businesses, but the customers of our rentals business are under pressure from higher vacancy rates. Even so, Rent generated $3 million of fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA on 20% year-over-year revenue growth, with positive net bookings. This is the second consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profits for a business that as recently as the first quarter of 2023 lost $9.7 million in adjusted EBITDA.

銷售市場的潛在改善可能會提振我們的經紀和貸款業務，但我們的租賃業務的客戶正面臨更高空置率的壓力。即便如此，Rent 第四季調整後 EBITDA 仍達 300 萬美元，營收年增 20%，且淨預訂量為正。這是該公司連續第二季實現調整後 EBITDA 獲利，而就在 2023 年第一季度，該公司的調整後 EBITDA 還虧損 970 萬美元。

To grow revenue and earn a full year adjusted EBITDA profit in a more challenging market, we're now integrating Rent and Redfin human resources, finance and legal departments as well as technology infrastructure. Starting this summer, and continuing through the first quarter of 2025, we expect significant savings from migrating to one cloud platform, one HR system, one finance system, one benefits plan.

為了在更具挑戰性的市場中增加收入並獲得全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤，我們現在正在整合 Rent 和 Redfin 的人力資源、財務和法律部門以及技術基礎設施。從今年夏天開始到 2025 年第一季度，我們預計透過遷移到一個雲端平台、一個人力資源系統、一個財務系統和一個福利計劃可以節省大量資金。

These efficiency gains will let us invest more in rent.com and apartmentguide.com and more in Rent sales and industry marketing, which we'll still run from Atlanta. Redfin and Rent will work together to increase tenant inquiries for Rent's customers, drawing on Redfin's expertise at attracting visitors from search engines, using machine learning to engage those visitors and experimenting at scale to generate more leasing demand from our audience. These efforts will take months to bear fruit, but should lead to a larger, more profitable rentals marketplace.

這些效率的提高將使我們能夠在 rent.com 和 apartmentguide.com 上投入更多資金，並在租金銷售和行業行銷上投入更多資金，而我們仍將在亞特蘭大開展業務。 Redfin 和 Rent 將共同努力，增加 Rent 客戶的租戶諮詢量，利用 Redfin 吸引搜尋引擎訪客的專業知識，使用機器學習來吸引這些訪客，並進行大規模實驗以從我們的受眾中產生更多的租賃需求。這些努力需要數月才能取得成果，但應該會帶來更大、更有利可圖的租賃市場。

Rent is part of a larger initiative to generate more revenue from digital sources. Our other business segment, which consists of Title Forward and digital channels, grew fourth quarter revenues to $10 million, up 54% year-over-year. Title Forward grew fourth quarter revenues 32% and is generating its first full year gross profit since 2019. Our digital businesses, which include a mortgage marketplace, display ads on redfin.com, lead generation for builders and syndicating Walk Score to other real estate sites grew fourth quarter revenue 101%. We've now hired an experienced leader to build our display ads business and expect further revenue increases in 2024.

租金是一項更大計劃的一部分，旨在透過數位來源創造更多收入。我們的其他業務部門，包括 Title Forward 和數位頻道，第四季營收成長至 1,000 萬美元，年增 54%。 Title Forward 第四季營收成長 32%，並實現自 2019 年以來首次全年毛利。我們現在已經聘請了一位經驗豐富的領導者來打造我們的展示廣告業務，並預計 2024 年收入將進一步增加。

Before turning the call over to Chris, let's discuss the housing market which is still almost entirely driven by mortgage interest rates. Our concern has been that 2024 will turn out like 2023 when rates approached 6% in January then rose, peaking above 8% in October. Rates subsequently declined approaching 6.5% in mid-December until climbing again to above 7% in February 2024. This recent rate increase has dampened 2024 demand. But the people now coming into the housing market know what they're getting into, having become more accustomed to mortgage rate volatility.

在將電話轉給克里斯之前，讓我們先討論一下仍然幾乎完全受抵押貸款利率驅動的房地產市場。我們擔心的是，2024 年的情況會像 2023 年一樣，利率在 1 月接近 6%，然後上升，在 10 月達到 8% 以上的峰值。隨後，利率在 12 月中旬下降至接近 6.5%，直到 2024 年 2 月再次攀升至 7% 以上。但現在進入房地產市場的人們已經更習慣了抵押貸款利率的波動，知道自己將面臨什麼。

Some also seem to recognize that when rates do ease, the market is likely to get more competitive. Already, our agents have reported a mostly seasonal resurgence in bidding wars at one extreme, a Fremont California listing got 50 offers last week. Redfin's listing demand increased sharply coming into 2024, but moderated in February. Home buying demand wasn't as strong, but has held up better, from customers asking to tour their first listing with Redfin all the way through to book sales.

有些人似乎也意識到，當利率確實降低時，市場可能會變得更加競爭。我們的代理商已經報告了競價戰的季節性復甦，其中一個極端情況是，加州弗里蒙特的一處房產上週收到了 50 個報價。進入 2024 年，Redfin 的上市需求急劇增加，但 2 月有所放緩。購屋需求雖然沒有那麼強勁，但表現還是較好，從客戶要求參觀他們在 Redfin 上首次掛牌的房屋，一直到預訂銷售。

Industry-wide, seasonally adjusted existing home sales increased in January to an annualized rate of 4.0 million after being below 4.0 million since September. If there isn't a significant further increase in mortgage interest rates, we expect 2024 home sales to remain at or above the 4.0 million level through the first half. If there is any mortgage rate relief in the spring, the second half could be much stronger.

經季節性調整後的全行業現房銷售量自 9 月以來一直低於 400 萬套，1 月則增長至年率 400 萬套。如果抵押貸款利率沒有進一步大幅上漲，我們預計 2024 年上半年房屋銷售量將保持在 400 萬套或以上。如果春季抵押貸款利率有任何下調，下半年的表現可能會更加強勁。

We aren't counting any chickens until they hatch. To minimize the first quarter losses we usually incur in anticipation of our busy season, Redfin deferred mass media advertising until the second quarter, hosted our sales kick-off virtually and limited first quarter business travel to employees in sales. Rather than waiting for a major housing market recovery, Redfin plans to grow, at least modestly through market share gains, by competing better for traffic and for sales, and then much faster when the housing market recovers.

我們不打小算盤。為了盡量減少我們通常因旺季而產生的第一季損失，Redfin 將大眾媒體廣告推遲到第二季度，以虛擬方式舉辦了我們的銷售啟動會，並將第一季的商務旅行限制在銷售員工的範圍內。 Redfin 不等待房地產市場的大幅復甦，而是計劃透過提高流量和銷售量來至少適度地增加市場份額，然後在房地產市場復甦時以更快的速度成長。

Take it away, Chris.

把它拿走吧，克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. The fourth quarter closed a challenging year for the housing industry. Still, we're pleased with the work we've done to improve profitability, and position the business to capture growth when the market begins to recover.

謝謝，格倫。第四季結束了房地產行業充滿挑戰的一年。儘管如此，我們對提高盈利能力所做的工作感到滿意，並在市場開始復甦時使業務定位於實現成長。

Fourth quarter revenue was $218 million, down 2% from a year ago. At the same time, gross profit of $73 million was up 32% year-over-year and total gross margin expanded from 25% to 34%. Each of our segments increased gross margin year-over-year and our higher margin rentals and other segments grew faster than the rest of the business. Our adjusted EBITDA loss of $13 million was up from a loss of $40 million in the prior year. For the full year 2023, our adjusted EBITDA loss was $76 million, up from $145 million in the prior year.

第四季營收為2.18億美元，較去年同期下降2%。同時，毛利7,300萬美元，年增32%，總毛利率從25%擴大至34%。我們每個部門的毛利率都比去年同期增加，而且利潤率較高的租金和其他部門的成長速度快於其他業務。我們的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 1,300 萬美元，高於上年的 4,000 萬美元。 2023 年全年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 7,600 萬美元，高於上年的 1.45 億美元。

We've been saying for several quarters that we're working towards a goal of trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the first half of 2024. This is still possible, but less certain now given how mortgage interest rates have started this year but we're on track for full year profits.

我們已經說了幾個季度了，我們正在努力實現到 2024 年上半年實現過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 收支平衡的目標。

Turning to our segment results for the fourth quarter, real estate services, which includes our brokerage and partner businesses, generated $133 million in revenue, down 9% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue was down 11% on a 20% decrease in brokerage transactions, partially offset by a 12% increase in brokerage revenue per transaction. The increase in revenue per brokerage transaction was driven by the reduction of our home buyer commission refund, revenue from concierge renovations and a 4% increase in average home prices. Revenue from our partners increased 19%, on a 16% increase in transactions and mix shift to higher-value houses.

回顧我們第四季的分部業績，包括經紀和合作夥伴業務在內的房地產服務業務創造了 1.33 億美元的收入，年減 9%。經紀交易量下降 20%，導致經紀收入下降 11%，但每筆交易經紀收入增加 12%，部分抵消了下降。每筆經紀交易收入的增加是由於購屋者佣金退款的減少、禮賓裝修收入以及平均房價上漲 4%。來自我們合作夥伴的收入成長了 19%，交易量增加了 16%，且房屋結構向高價值房屋轉移。

Real estate services gross margin was 22.5%, up 450 basis points year-over-year. This was primarily driven by a 590 basis point decrease in personnel costs and transaction bonuses and a 100 basis point decrease in home touring and field expenses, partially offset by a 190 basis point increase in seller home improvement expenses, each as a percentage of revenue. Net loss for real estate services in the fourth quarter was $21 million, up from a net loss of $28 million in the prior year and adjusted EBITDA loss was $7 million, up from a loss of $16 million in the prior year. The increase was attributable to higher gross margin and lower operating expenses, which more than offset lower revenues.

房地產服務毛利率為22.5%，較去年同期上升450個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金下降 590 個基點，以及家庭參觀和現場費用下降 100 個基點，但賣方家居裝修費用增加 190 個基點（上述兩項佔收入的百分比）部分抵消了這一影響。第四季房地產服務淨虧損為 2,100 萬美元，高於去年同期的淨虧損 2,800 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 700 萬美元，高於去年同期的虧損 1,600 萬美元。成長歸因於毛利率提高和營運費用降低，這足以抵消收入下降的影響。

Our rentals segment posted its fifth straight quarter of growth with revenue of $49 million, a 20% year-over-year increase. Rentals gross margin was 77.5%, up from 76.4% a year ago. Net loss for rentals was $10 million, up from a net loss of $22 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $3 million, our second straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA for the rentals segment.

我們的租賃部門連續第五個季度成長，營收達到 4,900 萬美元，年增 20%。租賃毛利率為 77.5%，高於一年前的 76.4%。租賃淨虧損為 1,000 萬美元，高於上年的淨虧損 2,200 萬美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 300 萬美元，這是我們租賃部門連續第二季實現調整後 EBITDA 為正值。

Our Mortgage segment generated $26 million in revenue, down 8% year-over-year. Mortgage gross margin was 4.6%, up from a negative 8.9% a year ago. This was primarily driven by a decrease in personnel costs as a percentage of revenue. Net loss for mortgage was $5 million, up from a loss of $12 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $5 million compared to a $10 million loss in the prior year.

我們的抵押貸款部門創造了 2,600 萬美元的收入，年減 8%。房貸毛利率為 4.6%，高於一年前的負 8.9%。這主要是由於人員成本佔收入的比例下降所致。抵押貸款淨虧損為 500 萬美元，高於去年的 1,200 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 500 萬美元，而去年同期的虧損為 1,000 萬美元。

Our other segment generated revenue of $10 million, up 54% year-over-year as both our title and digital revenue businesses grew. Other segment gross margin was 40.6%, up from 7.4% a year ago. Net income was $2 million compared to a $1 million loss in the prior year. And adjusted EBITDA was positive $3 million compared to a negative $1 million in the prior year.

我們的其他部門創造了 1000 萬美元的收入，年增 54%，因為我們的標題和數位收入業務都實現了成長。其他部門毛利率為40.6%，高於一年前的7.4%。淨收入為 200 萬美元，而前一年的虧損為 100 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為正 300 萬美元，而去年同期為負 100 萬美元。

Turning back to our consolidated results. Total operating expenses were $117 million, down $25 million year-over-year. The decrease was primarily attributable to $13 million in lower restructuring expenses, $3 million in lower marketing expenses and $2 million in lower personnel expenses. Net loss was $23 million compared to a net loss from continuing operations of $27 million in the prior year or $62 million, including discontinued operations. This is within our $27 million to $18 million loss guidance range includes a $25 million gain on the extinguishment of notes, which was anticipated in our guidance.

回顧我們的綜合業績。總營運費用為 1.17 億美元，較上年同期下降 2,500 萬美元。下降主要歸因於重組費用減少 1,300 萬美元、行銷費用減少 300 萬美元以及人事費用減少 200 萬美元。淨虧損為 2,300 萬美元，而上年持續經營業務淨虧損為 2,700 萬美元，包括已停止經營業務在內的淨虧損為 6,200 萬美元。這在我們的 2700 萬美元至 1800 萬美元的損失指導範圍內，其中包括 2500 萬美元的票據清償收益，這在我們的指導中是預期的。

Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $13 million, in line with our guidance range. Diluted loss per share attributable to common stock was $0.20 compared with a loss of $0.25 one year ago.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 損失為 1300 萬美元，符合我們的指導範圍。歸屬於普通股的每股攤薄虧損為 0.20 美元，而一年前每股虧損為 0.25 美元。

Now turning to our financial expectations for the first quarter. For the first quarter of 2024, total revenue is expected to be flat on the low end or grow 4% on the high end. Real estate services revenue is expected to decline 1% on the low end or grow 3% on the high end with gross margin around 14% to 17%. We do not expect a material change in revenue per brokerage transaction as a result of the homebuyer refund that Glenn mentioned earlier. Rentals revenue is expected to continue to grow between 13% and 16%, mortgage revenue is expected to decline between 20% and 11%.

現在來談談我們對第一季的財務預期。 2024 年第一季度，預計總營收低端持平或高端成長 4%。預計房地產服務收入最低下降1%、最高成長3%，毛利率約14%-17%。我們預計，格倫先前提到的購屋者退款不會為每筆經紀交易的收入帶來重大變化。租金收入預計將繼續增長 13% 至 16%，抵押貸款收入預計將下降 20% 至 11%。

Finally, other segment revenue is expected to grow between 28% and 29%. Total net loss is expected to be between $72 million and $65 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss from continuing operations is expected to be between $36 million and $29 million.

最後，其他部門收入預計將成長28%至29%。預計總淨虧損在 7,200 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元之間。持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 損失預計在 3,600 萬美元至 2,900 萬美元之間。

And with that, let's take your questions.

現在，讓我們來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Naved Khan of B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Naved Khan。

Yes. Just a couple of questions from me. So just on Next, it's great to hear the breakeven on this one is faster versus your traditional model. But my question is on the flip side of this, i.e., if there -- if you're in a healthy market, does it actually cap the potential profitability and revenue as well because you're -- it's more of a variable structure.

是的。我只是有幾個問題而已。因此，接下來，我們很高興聽到這個的損益平衡比傳統車型更快。但我的問題是另一方面，即，如果你處於一個健康的市場，它是否實際上也會限制潛在的獲利能力和收入，因為它更像是一個可變的結構。

The other question I had is around rentals. So we heard from Zillow a few weeks ago, and they were seeing continuing strength in rentals, wondering if there's a disconnect or in different markets where we should be seeing slowdown in your rental book? And maybe for Chris, the last question on the sort of the goal of getting to EBITDA breakeven in the first half, are we now looking at full year '24? Or how should we think about that?

我的另一個問題是關於租賃。幾週前我們從 Zillow 那裡聽說，他們看到租賃業務持續走強，想知道是否存在脫節，或者在不同的市場中，我們是否應該看到租賃業務放緩？對克里斯來說，最後一個問題是關於上半年實現 EBITDA 收支平衡的目標，我們現在是否在關注 24 年全年？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Chris, why don't I take the first 2 and you can handle the third. On Next, we are not worried about capping the upside. We think that the gross margin profile for Redfin sourced deals will be similar or better to what it has been with our salaried employee model. If Next agents start doing more self-source sales where they bring customers to us that will have a different margin profile, but it will just be incremental gross profit. And I think that's less driven by the cycle than it is by just the mix of business that different Next agents will offer Redfin, but it should be incremental gross profit growth and monetizing our website, it should be a similar gross margin.

克里斯，我來處理前兩個，你來處理第三個。對於 Next，我們並不擔心上行空間受到限制。我們認為，Redfin 交易的毛利率狀況將與我們的受薪員工模式的毛利率相似或更好。如果 Next 代理商開始進行更多的自營銷售，從而為我們帶來客戶，那麼利潤率將會有所不同，但這只是增量毛利。我認為，這並不是受週期的影響，而是由不同的 Next 代理商為 Redfin 提供的業務組合所決定的，但這應該是增量毛利潤增長，並透過我們的網站實現貨幣化，應該有一個類似的毛利率。

The larger point in a bull market is that Next will allow us to be more aggressive about hiring because we have fewer fixed costs, we can add agent capacity. I think the critique of Redfin has sometimes been that extreme market volatility has meant that we were one step behind in a downturn because we couldn't let people off fast enough. And then we were one step behind in a sudden rally because we couldn't hire people fast enough. But because the Next agent is profitable with almost half the number of sales that a salaried employee is we could be more aggressive about hiring those agents without carrying so much fixed cost.

牛市中更重要的一點是，Next 將使我們能夠更積極地招聘，因為我們的固定成本更少，我們可以增加代理商能力。我認為對 Redfin 的批評有時在於極端的市場波動意味著我們在經濟低迷時落後了一步，因為我們無法足夠快地放手讓人們離開。但隨後，我們在一次突然的反彈中落後了一步，因為我們無法足夠快地招募人員。但是，由於 Next 代理商的銷售額幾乎是受薪僱員銷售額的一半，因此我們可以更積極地僱用這些代理商，而不必承擔太多的固定成本。

So I think it actually gives us upside in a bull market. On the Rentals segment, Zillow might be more bullish than we are. It's just a matter of degree. 2023 was a really strong market for rentals marketplaces. There was at least a 20-point tailwind in the market, and that is moderating slightly because more buildings are coming online. So I think there is some lease-up opportunities if you are the vendor chosen to help fill those buildings, but most of the customers who are just trying to maintain their buildings have more budget pressure because they're having a hard time just meeting their loan covenants and keeping their buildings full.

因此我認為這實際上為我們帶來了牛市的上漲空間。在租賃領域，Zillow 可能比我們更樂觀。這只是程度的問題。 2023 年對租賃市場來說是一個非常強勁的市場。市場原本至少有 20 點的順風，但由於更多建築投入使用，這種順風正在略微緩和。因此，我認為，如果您是被選中來幫助填補這些建築的供應商，那麼就會有一些租賃機會，但大多數只是試圖維護其建築的客戶會面臨更大的預算壓力，因為他們很難滿足貸款契約並保持其建築的滿員。

And this is Chris. I can comment on our profit targets. We are still working to profits on a trailing 12-month basis through the first half of this year. I'm not sure I have a lot to add other than my comment, which is that's still possible but less certain. And the big variable here is about revenue growth in the second quarter. We don't have a lot of visibility to that at this point. And we know that it will be subject to mortgage interest rates, which have started the year really higher than we expected them to. And so that's the piece that we'll be watching. But really, this is about the revenue growth in that next period as opposed to anything else.

這是克里斯。我可以對我們的利潤目標發表評論。今年上半年，我們仍在努力實現過去 12 個月的獲利。除了我的評論之外，我不確定我還有很多要補充的，我的評論是這仍然是可能的，但不太確定。這裡最大的變數是第二季的營收成長。目前我們對此還沒有太多的了解。我們知道這將受到抵押貸款利率的影響，今年年初抵押貸款利率確實比我們預期的要高。這就是我們要關注的部分。但實際上，這與下一時期的收入成長有關，與其他任何事情都無關。

Our next question comes from Tom White of D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的湯姆懷特 (Tom White)。戴維森。

Maybe just a follow-up on the EBITDA or kind of cash flow timetable. I guess the question is more, I guess, related to your liquidity. The balance sheet looks strong in terms of cash and equivalents. I think it's nearly $200 million. But Chris, maybe could you just walk us through like your kind of required sort of debt pay down or paying down on the warehouse over the next 12 months? And just kind of trying to think about your cash needs on that front relative to the $75 million kind of minimum cash balance you have to keep as part of that Apollo deal. Like maybe just you can describe how you're sort of -- you guys are feeling about that? Like do you feel like you've got the flexibility to kind of do what you need to do to reposition the company for growth once the market picks up?

也許只是對 EBITDA 或現金流時間表的後續關注。我想這個問題更多的是與你的流動性有關。從現金和等價物來看，資產負債表看起來很強勁。我認為這個數字接近2億美元。但克里斯，也許你能否向我們介紹一下未來 12 個月內你需要償還的債務或倉庫貸款？只是想考慮一下你在這方面的現金需求，相對於阿波羅交易中你必須保留的 7500 萬美元最低現金餘額。例如也許你可以描述一下你們對此的感受？一旦市場回暖，您是否覺得自己有足夠的彈性來重新定位公司，以實現成長？

Yes, the short answer to your question is we do feel good about our capital position. So at the end of the quarter, we had $195 million of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. It's important to note also that we have another $125 million that we could draw from Apollo as part of the transaction. So that gives us plenty of capacity there against the notes that we have due in 2025, which are now down to $193 million after the repurchases that we've been making. So again, we feel like we've got plenty of capital to manage the business here. We're focused on driving the profits and beyond that, but we do feel like we've got the right flexibility to continue to navigate the business through all of that.

是的，對你的問題的簡短回答是，我們對我們的資本狀況確實感到滿意。因此，在本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 1.95 億美元的現金和等價物。另外值得注意的是，作為交易的一部分，我們還可以從阿波羅公司提取另外 1.25 億美元。因此，這為我們提供了足夠的能力來應對 2025 年到期的票據，在我們進行回購之後，這些票據現已降至 1.93 億美元。所以，我們再次感覺到我們有足夠的資金來管理這裡的業務。我們專注於提高利潤及其他目標，但我們確實覺得我們擁有適當的靈活性，可以繼續引導業務實現所有這些目標。

The next question comes from [Dae Lee] of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 [Dae Lee]。

I have two. First one, following up on Redfin Next, I'm just curious to think on what the early feedbacks have been like? And you can notice that the some key differences in the performance between your Next agent and your traditional agents. And I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。首先，跟進 Redfin Next，我只是好奇想知道早期的回饋是什麼樣的？您會注意到 Next 代理程式和傳統代理程式在效能上存在一些關鍵差異。我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. I just want to make sure I heard the question. Could you repeat how has the reception been among the agents we hired?

當然。我只是想確保我聽清了這個問題。您能否重複一下我們聘用的代理商的接待情況如何？

Yes. So what are the early feedback been like among the agents that you hire and if you're noticing any key differences in performance between your Next agents and your traditional agents.

是的。那麼，您聘用的代理商的早期回饋如何？

Great. Well, the feedback has been, first, that contact quality has been better than they'd expected. Many of them have been paying to meet customers through other websites, but Redfin just has a long history of eating its own dog food, where the opportunities we generate are served by our own employees, so that feedback loop over many, many years has just made us focus on qualification more maybe than other websites. And so agents have been pleased that the quantity, especially the quality of opportunities that they're getting.

偉大的。嗯，回饋是，首先，聯繫品質比他們預期的要好。他們中的許多人一直在付費透過其他網站來結識客戶，但 Redfin 長期以來一直在吃自己的狗糧，我們創造的機會由我們自己的員工提供，因此多年來的反饋循環使我們比其他網站更注重資格。因此，代理商對他們獲得的機會的數量，特別是質量感到非常滿意。

Maybe the second point is that they're happy about what we call a business in a box that to succeed as an agent, especially at scale, you sometimes have to hire a transaction coordinator. You might want some people to help you with tours on the weekends. People here are set up from day one to be top producers where all of that infrastructure is taken care of. And then they love the systems. The challenges are making sure we support not just the brand of Redfin, but the brand of the agent. That's an area where other brokerages have really excelled. And then just making sure we support their autonomy. These are people who are used to working for themselves. They are more entrepreneurial. We see that as a feature, not a bug. And so far, it's just been fantastic. So we're really excited about that. They behave differently.

也許第二點是，他們對我們所謂的「盒裝業務」感到高興：要成為一名成功的代理商，尤其是大規模的代理商，有時你必須聘請交易協調員。您可能需要一些人在週末幫助您進行旅遊。從第一天起，這裡的人們就被設定為頂級生產商，所有基礎設施都由他們負責。他們喜歡這個系統。我們面臨的挑戰是確保我們不僅支持 Redfin 的品牌，還支持代理商的品牌。這正是其他經紀公司表現出色的領域。然後確保我們支持他們的自治。這些人已經習慣為自己工作。他們更具有創業精神。我們認為這是一個特性，而不是一個缺陷。到目前為止，一切都非常棒。因此我們對此感到非常興奮。他們的行為各有不同。

To get to the second part of your question, mostly in terms of how they view the opportunities that they get from our site as precious, but also as a starting point for building their business. So it's not just -- I'm going to get a sale from this one customer, but I'm going to use it to generate referrals. So they are mining our customer database. They're surprised at how much access they have to past customers of Redfin in their neighborhoods and they're just working hard or not just to work off the new opportunities, but to create sales from the repeat and referral business. So those are the main differences. It's really rejuvenated the culture of Redfin, not just among these new hires, but among all of the other agents who see how aggressive the new hires are about prosecuting these opportunities. It's been fantastic.

回到你問題的第二部分，主要是關於他們如何看待從我們的網站獲得的機會，以及如何將其視為建立業務的起點。所以這不僅僅是——我要從這個客戶那裡獲得銷售，而且我要用它來產生推薦。所以他們正在挖掘我們的客戶資料庫。他們對自己與社區中 Redfin 老客戶的聯繫如此之多感到驚訝，他們不僅努力工作以抓住新機會，還透過回頭客和推薦業務創造銷售。這些就是主要的區別。這確實振興了 Redfin 的文化，不僅僅是在這些新員工中，而且在所有其他代理商中，他們看到新員工積極地抓住這些機會。這真是太棒了。

Got it. And I guess as a follow-up, it's great to hear that you guys are expecting to gain shares through 2024. So first of all, just curious why shares have declined in 4Q? And wondering what gives you the confidence in your share gain expectations as we move through the year?

知道了。我想作為後續問題，很高興聽到你們預計到 2024 年股價會上漲。您想了解是什麼讓您對今年的股票成長預期充滿信心嗎？

Well, the 3 sales initiatives we outlined are what give us confidence. Close rate has been declining for many, many years. So to include in this print an actual close rate gain from the Sign-and-Save program where we tie the commission refund to a buyer's agency agreement, that is a seismic result from my perspective. And I know it's still early because we're just judging off the first 60 or 90 days, this cohort of customers who met us in November or December, how many of them have closed. But it's a very positive sign and to see also this very strong revenue growth in these high-end coastal markets like L.A., San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County, where we have had real share problems for 2 or 3 years. That, again, is a massive reversal.

我們概述的 3 項銷售措施給了我們信心。成交率已經連續下降很多年了。因此，在本文中我們將佣金退款與買方代理協議掛鉤的「簽約並保存」計劃所帶來的實際成交率收益納入其中，從我的角度來看，這是一個重大的結果。我知道現在還為時過早，因為我們只是根據前 60 到 90 天的情況來判斷，11 月或 12 月與我們會面的這群客戶中有多少人已經成交。但這是一個非常積極的信號，而且我們也看到洛杉磯、舊金山、聖地亞哥和奧蘭治縣等高端沿海市場的收入增長非常強勁，而我們在這些市場已經面臨 2 到 3 年的份額問題。這又是一個巨大的逆轉。

And so all of these initiatives started in September or October, some of them in November. And they're just now taking hold. And the fact that we seem to be 3 for 3, that all 3 are working really makes a difference. And the proof there is that we've scaled them very quickly. Normally, we take a year or so because the benefit is quite marginal. It's hard to identify. You have to wait for the data to cure over a long period of time. But sometimes the result is so big and obvious you just push the button and let it go bigger. And so if things hold up the way that they are, we're going to have a really good year because traffic has always been a strength of Redfin and now we're coupling that with really great sales execution.

所有這些舉措都是在九月或十月開始的，有些是在十一月開始的。而這些措施現在才剛開始生效。事實是我們似乎是 3 對 3，所有 3 個都在發揮作用，這確實有所不同。證據就是我們很快就擴大了規模。通常我們需要一年左右的時間，因為收益相當微不足道。很難辨認。您必須等待很長時間才能使數據固化。但有時結果是如此之大、如此明顯，你只需按下按鈕，它就會變得更大。因此，如果情況保持現狀，我們將迎來非常好的一年，因為流量一直是 Redfin 的優勢，現在我們將其與非常出色的銷售執行結合起來。

So as for Q4, what happened, I don't know. I mean part of it is that we sometimes tell our listing customers not to put their homes on the market in November and December. I don't think other brokerages are as aggressive about that, a traditional agent if he has an opportunity to activate a listing, he or she is going to take it, whereas at Redfin, we tend to think that it's in the customer's best interest not to list during the holidays and to push it out until January.

至於第四季度，發生了什麼，我不知道。我的意思是，部分原因在於我們有時會告訴我們的掛牌客戶不要在 11 月和 12 月將他們的房屋出售。我認為其他經紀公司對此並不那麼積極，傳統經紀人如果有機會激活房源，他或她就會抓住機會，而在 Redfin，我們傾向於認為，在假期期間不要掛牌出售房屋，而是將其推遲到 1 月份，這樣最符合客戶利益。

But that doesn't explain all of it. Sometimes you just have mixed sales results. And now that we're doing something different, I think we're going to have much different sales results. I was not happy about the share print in Q4, and I'm very excited about it going forward. I think we're on the right track.

但這並不能解釋全部原因。有時你的銷售業績只是好壞參半。現在我們正在做一些不同的事情，我認為我們將會獲得截然不同的銷售表現。我對第四季的股價表現並不滿意，但我對未來的發展感到非常興奮。我認為我們走在正確的道路上。

The next question comes from John Campbell of Stephens Inc.

下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 John Campbell。

Glenn, maybe on a big picture industry question, I might be looking too far into this. It seems like the new Sign-and-Save program is basically implying that you guys see a future or, I guess, a potential in the buyer agency agreement. My question is, do you think the industry eventually aligns with you and that the buyer agency agreement becomes a new standard in time?

格倫，也許就整個行業的問題而言，我可能想得太深入了。新的「簽約並保存」計劃似乎基本上暗示著你們看到了買方代理協議的未來，或者說潛力。我的問題是，您是否認為該行業最終會與您的觀點保持一致，並且買方代理協議會隨著時間的推移成為新的標準？

Partly, yes. I mean that's already happened in markets like the D.C. area market and Seattle. It's required for buyers to sign a buyers agency agreement. I think some of this is about legal and regulatory compliance. Some of it is just an ethical mandate that people should not hire a buyer's agent without realizing it. They should know what that buyer's agent charges and they should know what services are entailed. They should know when they're committed. And so this is good salesmanship, but it's also just an above-board way to treat a customer.

部分是的。我的意思是這已經發生在華盛頓特區和西雅圖等市場了。買家必須簽署買家代理協議。我認為其中一些涉及法律和法規合規性。其中有些只是一種道德要求，即人們不應該在不知情的情況下僱用買方代理。他們應該知道買方代理收取多少費用以及需要提供哪些服務。他們應該知道自己何時做出承諾。這是一種很好的銷售技巧，但同時也是一種光明正大的對待顧客的方式。

Now the reason that I said partly is that we're also seeing some trends where more listing agents are selling homes directly to home buyers. So I think there is just going to be more consumer choice, John. In some cases, a consumer is explicitly going to decide that I want somebody on my side, that I want my own agent and other times the agent -- the listing agent, excuse me, will be the 1 handling both sides of the sale. The buyer is going to go directly to that listing agent. I don't think that's going to be the majority of cases, but I do think there's going to be clear consumer choices and more consumer power. That's great.

我所說的部分原因是我們也看到一些趨勢，越來越多的掛牌代理商直接向購屋者出售房屋。因此我認為消費者將會有更多的選擇，約翰。在某些情況下，消費者會明確地決定是否需要有人站在我這邊，需要我自己的代理人，而其他時候，代理人——對不起，掛牌代理人將是處理銷售雙方事務的人。買家將直接聯繫該掛牌代理商。我不認為這會是大多數情況，但我確實認為消費者將會有更明確的選擇和更多的消費者權力。那太棒了。

Yes. Makes a lot of sense. I'm surprised you didn't go in to plug for Redfin Direct. So maybe if you could talk about that and where that might have a spot in the new world.

是的。非常有道理。我很驚訝你沒有去宣傳 Redfin Direct。所以也許您可以談論這個問題以及它在新世界中可能佔有一席之地。

Man, I never missed an opportunity to give a plug. I was trying to be concise, but we've obviously built software that makes it easier for buyers to submit offers directly to Redfin listing agents because we wanted to support this capability for buyers to work without a buyer's agent. And the challenge that we've had when trying to scale that beyond Redfin listings is that many traditional listing agents do not welcome direct buyer contact. And I think that is changing because there is so much pressure on listing agents to support more consumer choice. And as that pressure mounts, the power of Redfin will be fully unleased, John. How is that for a plug?

夥計，我從來不會錯過任何宣傳的機會。我試圖簡潔扼要，但我們顯然已經開發了軟體，使買家可以更輕鬆地直接向 Redfin 上市代理提交報價，因為我們希望支持此功能，讓買家無需買方代理即可工作。當我們嘗試將其擴展到 Redfin 清單之外時，我們面臨的挑戰是，許多傳統清單代理商不歡迎買家直接聯繫。我認為這種情況正在改變，因為上市代理商面臨巨大的壓力，需要支持更多的消費者選擇。隨著壓力的增加，Redfin 的力量將得到充分釋放，約翰。這個插頭怎麼樣？

Excellent. Good run down. If I could squeeze in maybe one more. The mortgage segment, obviously, you guys are doing great with the attach rates. You're doing as good as you can do with what the market is giving you. Obviously, eventually, we're going to see lower rates whenever that might be. I'm curious about where you guys are capacity-wise. Are you in a good spot loan officer wise? And then also -- are you -- is the business position where you can capitalize on refi as that comes back as well?

出色的。運作良好。如果我可以再擠進去一個的話。在抵押貸款領域，顯然你們在附加利率方面做得很好。您已經利用市場提供給您的一切做到了最好。顯然，無論何時，我們最終都將看到利率下降。我很好奇你們的能力如何。身為貸款員，您處境好嗎？然後還有 -- 您 -- 您的業務狀況是否能夠利用再融資？

We've been worried about being able to capitalize on refunds. So hopefully, we stay ahead of that. I think rates have to drop another 75 basis points before the refi opportunity becomes significant. But traditionally, Bay Equity was doing 1/3 to half of its business in refi, don't quite quote me on that, but I think it was something like that. And they do have capacity. They have capacity just because the whole lending industry has capacity. Most lenders are still anxious to do more business, but also because they just got a great recruiting proposition.

我們一直擔心能否利用退款。所以希望我們能保持領先。我認為利率必須再下降 75 個基點，再融資機會才會變得顯著。但傳統上，Bay Equity 的 1/3 到 1/2 業務是從事再融資的，雖然我不太明白這一點，但我認為是這樣的。他們確實有能力。他們有能力只是因為整個貸款行業有能力。大多數貸款機構仍渴望開展更多業務，而且因為他們剛剛收到一份很好的招聘建議。

There are so many lenders who have been working with Redfin agents who have joined Bay Equity because now they see that Redfin agents are not going to recommend that lender unless they have the full power of Redfin's one-stop shop. The economics are better. We can offer the consumer better value. The integration is better. So it's a more seamless experience. And so those lenders are under pressure to join Bay Equity/Redfin instead of hanging their own shingle and that's made it just easy for us to add loan officer capacity when we need to. Not easy but made it easier. Recruiting top talent is always hard, but made it easier.

許多貸款機構都與加入 Bay Equity 的 Redfin 代理商合作，因為現在他們發現，除非 Redfin 代理商擁有 Redfin 一站式服務的全部權力，否則他們不會推薦該貸款機構。經濟狀況更好。我們可以為消費者提供更好的價值。整合性更好。因此這是一種更無縫的體驗。因此，這些貸款機構面臨加入 Bay Equity/Redfin 而不是自己掛牌的壓力，這使得我們在需要時可以輕鬆增加貸款人員的能力。並不容易，但使事情變得更容易了。招募頂尖人才總是很難，但是它變得更容易了。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jay McCanless of Wedbush Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Jay McCanless。

Just staying on mortgage for a second. I'm surprised that the level of revenue decline you're forecasting given you expect real estate services to show at least a small gain. Maybe talk about the disconnect between those two?

只是暫時保留抵押貸款。您預計房地產服務至少會略有成長，但您對收入下降幅度的預測卻令我感到驚訝。也許可以討論一下這兩者之間的脫節？

Sure. Well, I do you think it's possible that we generate more revenue in the mortgage business. So that's one potential outcome here. Another thing, just to remember, is that there's a little bit of a timing difference in the recognition of revenue and real estate services, which we get at the time that the transaction closes versus mortgage where we book some of the revenue upfront. So the revenue in mortgage tends to be a little less volatile, and that's probably what you're seeing between the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2024. We are really encouraged with the attach rates we've seen in the first part of this year, going back to Glenn's earlier commentary. And so that has us quite optimistic as the year goes on.

當然。嗯，我確實認為我們有可能在抵押貸款業務中創造更多收入。這是一種可能的結果。還有一件事要記住，那就是收入和房地產服務的確認存在一點時間差異，我們在交易結束時獲得收入，而抵押貸款則是我們預先記錄部分收入。因此，抵押貸款收入的波動性往往會小一些，這可能是您在第四季度至 2024 年第一季之間看到的情況。因此，我們對未來一年的發展相當樂觀。

Okay. And then the second question I had, could you potentially quantify how big the demand decline was from January to February.

好的。我的第二個問題是，您能否量化一月至二月的需求下降幅度。

No, I don't think we can. And it's not just that we're being cagey about it. It's a seasonal business. There are so many factors. We kind of argued in preparing for this call, whether or not this January to February feels different than 2023's January to February and maybe sales are pulling through a little bit better. We can't tell if that's our sales execution or if the markets like that, there was a commentary in the prepared remarks about buyers just being more accustomed to rate volatility. They know what they're getting into. They're not as easily phased. So I don't know if we can prove it, but it just feels a little bit better than last year. And certainly, we're better prepared for it. We were starting to gear up last year, and now we feel like we're not going to be fooled again, and we're going to be more careful about it.

不，我認為我們不能。我們對此並不只是保持謹慎。這是一個季節性的生意。有很多因素。在準備這次電話會議時，我們爭論過，今年 1 月到 2 月的感覺是否與 2023 年 1 月到 2 月不同，也許銷售情況會好一些。我們無法判斷這是我們的銷售執行還是市場是否喜歡這樣，在準備好的評論中有一個評論說買家只是更習慣於利率波動。他們知道自己在做什麼。它們並不是那麼容易分階段的。所以我不知道我們是否能證明這一點，但感覺比去年好一點。當然，我們已經做好了更充分的準備。我們去年就開始做好準備，現在我們覺得我們不會再被愚弄，我們會對此更加小心。

Got it. And then the last one I had, I think, Chris, you made this comment about mortgage rates being higher so far this year than what you guys were expecting. I guess, what is kind of the Redfin house expectations for mortgage rates this year, especially with a lot of economists calling for mortgage rates to dip in the back half of the year versus the front half.

知道了。然後我想問的最後一個問題是，克里斯，你評論說今年到目前為止的抵押貸款利率高於你們的預期。我想問一下，Redfin 對今年房貸利率的預期是怎麼樣的，尤其是許多經濟學家預測下半年房貸利率會比上半年下降。

That's very much what our economics team has been indicating is that they expect that rates will come down as the year goes on. And my commentary was really that rates did tick up in the first part of this year. And I think we're all watching now what the trajectory looks like over the next few months.

這正是我們的經濟團隊所表明的，他們預計隨著時間的推移利率將會下降。我的評論確實是今年上半年利率確實有上升。我認為我們現在都在關注未來幾個月的發展軌跡。

The next question comes from Nitin Bansal of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的尼廷班薩爾。

This is Nitin on behalf of Curt Nagle. Can you throw some light on how volatile has been buyer demand related to rates over the past few months. January volumes look better, but have you seen any pullback with rates now at 7% and pricing not easing? And secondly, what is your view on home supply? And how did -- how much do you think it can improve (inaudible) still very rate locked.

這是 Curt Nagle 的代表 Nitin。您能否解釋一下過去幾個月中買家需求與利率之間的波動？一月份的交易量看起來好一些，但在利率目前達到 7% 且價格沒有回落的情況下，您是否看到任何回調？其次，您對住房供應有何看法？那麼您認為它能改善多少（聽不清楚）仍然鎖定利率。

Well, answer to your first question about volatility, the market is still very much driven by mortgage interest rates, but maybe 1 degree less than it was 6 to 9 months ago. Some people just put off their home buying plans for 6 months, for 9 months, for 12 months. And at some point, they have priced into all of their calculations, a mortgage rate of around 7%. And I think if rates keep going up, there's always a breaking point for different cohorts of homebuyers, but it's been slightly more elastic than it has been in the past. I used to feel like man, it would be just the tiniest tick up and people would say, no, (inaudible). And now it just feels that people are a little more hardy about it.

好吧，回答你關於波動性的第一個問題，市場仍然很大程度上是受抵押貸款利率驅動，但可能比 6 到 9 個月前降低了 1 度。有些人乾脆把購屋計畫延後了6個月、9個月、12個月。在某個時候，他們已經把債券貸款利率在 7% 左右納入了所有計算之中。我認為，如果利率持續上漲，對於不同的購屋者群體來說總會有一個臨界點，但它比過去稍微更有彈性。我以前總覺得，只要出現最微小的波動，人們就會說，不，（聽不清楚）。現在感覺人們對此更加強硬了一點。

As for supply, that's going to be a long-term problem in the U.S. economy when you have this much mortgage interest rate volatility and you're guaranteeing people loans for 30 years, you're going to have a long-term problem with resale inventory that should ease a little bit every year. Again, you just have some powerful demographic forces. Boomers are holding on to their homes longer, millennials are waiting longer to buy a home, but that can't last forever. And so we do think that the supply problems are going to ease and also construction has gotten a little better, too.

至於供應，這將成為美國經濟的一個長期問題，當抵押貸款利率波動如此之大，而你又為人們提供 30 年的貸款擔保時，你將面臨轉售庫存的長期問題，而這種問題每年都會有所緩解。再說一遍，你們擁有一些強大的人口力量。嬰兒潮世代持有住房的時間更長，千禧世代等待買房的時間更長，但這種情況不可能永遠持續下去。因此我們確實認為供應問題將會緩解，而且建築業也會有所改善。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup.

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

Given how important this is for you guys. I just want to expand a little bit more on the agent model, a, on the push to move more of the lower profitability transactions to partners clearly continuing to step into that? How is that going relative to your expectations? Is that something you expect to do more of? And then -- just any more incremental color on Redfin Next? And what are some of the signals that you're looking for? You talked about going into 1/3 of markets, can that potentially become more. It looks like that's been more successful than you expected and it's been ramping quicker than expected.

考慮到這對你們來說有多重要。我只是想對代理商模式進行稍微擴展一下，推動將更多盈利能力較低的交易轉移給合作夥伴，顯然會繼續涉足這一領域？這與你的預期相比怎麼樣？您希望做更多這樣的事嗎？然後——Redfin Next 上還會有更多增量顏色嗎？您正在尋找哪些訊號？您剛剛談到進入 1/3 的市場，這個數字可能會更多嗎？看起來這比你預期的更成功，而且它的發展速度比預期的要快。

Well, first, on the push to partners, we do expect that to continue from year-to-year, from month to month, it's subject to the exigencies of the housing market. So once we've hired a certain number of agents, we're going to keep them busy taking more demand from partners or sending demand to partners. But mostly, we've been pretty careful about adding brokerage headcount because of this long-term shift to partners and this push to have a more digital margin at Redfin, which I think you see across the entire print. There's just higher gross margins in real estate services and across the business overall.

首先，關於對合作夥伴的推動，我們確實希望這種推動能夠逐年、逐月持續下去，這取決於房地產市場的需要。因此，一旦我們僱用了一定數量的代理商，我們就會讓他們忙於從合作夥伴那裡獲取更多需求或向合作夥伴發送需求。但最重要的是，我們在增加經紀員工數量方面非常謹慎，因為 Redfin 長期向合夥人轉變，並推動其實現更高的數位化利潤，我想您可以從整個印刷品中看到這一點。房地產服務和整個業務的毛利率更高。

So that is the long-term trend. There might be some volatility in the mix between partners and employees from month-to-month, but mostly it's going in one direction. And as for next, maybe the only commentary that we haven't provided is about how eager the other markets are for it. There are plenty of sales initiatives that Redfin headquarters foists on different markets. And sales leaders are often quite conservative. They want to keep doing what they've been doing. They don't like as much change. That is not the case with Redfin Next. I have never seen so many employees lined up saying please cut my salary, so I can have a higher bonus.

所以這是長期趨勢。合夥人與員工之間的關係每月可能會有一些波動，但總體上是朝著一個方向發展的。至於下一步，也許我們尚未提供的唯一評論就是其他市場對此有多渴望。 Redfin 總部針對不同市場實施了許多銷售措施。銷售領導通常相當保守。他們想繼續做他們一直在做的事情。他們不喜歡那麼大的改變。 Redfin Next 的情況並非如此。我從來沒有見過這麼多員工排隊說請降低我的薪水，這樣我就可以獲得更高的獎金。

The first run for Next, where you have a 2-week payroll run, somebody got a $90,000 or $91,000 commission check. I don't know that we've ever had a check like that in January, and it was just for 2 weeks. The word spreads like wildfire, markets are clamoring for it. And the only reason that we're not rolling it out even faster is we just don't want to screw it up. Right now, we've got one initiative, Sign-and-Save, which trades commission refunds for a buyer's agency agreement that we're scaling across the company in 2024, we think that's going to significantly lift close rates.

在 Next 的第一次運行中，您有 2 週的工資單，有人收到了 90,000 美元或 91,000 美元的佣金支票。我不知道我們是否曾在一月收到這樣的支票，而且只持續了兩週。這個詞迅速傳播，市場對此趨之若鶓。我們沒有更快推出這項措施的唯一原因是我們不想把事情搞砸。目前，我們有一項舉措，即“簽約並保存”，用佣金退款換取買方代理協議，我們將在 2024 年在全公司範圍內推廣這項舉措，我們認為這將顯著提高成交率。

We'll expand Next somewhat more cautiously just because recruiting and change management for the existing employees is a lift, but every single market manager, it seems like most of our agents are clamoring for it. And I've talked to a bunch of the agents we are recruiting. And it's just an amazing level of talent. It's really, really exciting. If you pair kind of the best brokerage website with the best agents, you're going to take the world by storm. So early days, but we feel pretty excited about it. We feel as good as we could after just 30, 40 days of doing it in 2024.

我們將更加謹慎地擴展 Next，因為對現有員工進行招募和變革管理是一項艱鉅的任務，但每位市場經理，似乎我們的大多數代理商都在渴望它。我已經和許多我們正在招募的經紀人進行了交談。這真是令人驚嘆的才華。這真的非常令人興奮。如果您將最好的經紀網站與最好的代理商配對，您將會風靡全球。雖然還處於早期階段，但我們對此感到非常興奮。在 2024 年僅僅完成了 30 到 40 天之後，我們就感覺非常好了。

A follow-up, I guess, on the point on traffic. I guess, one of the biggest, let's say, the debate areas right now and among investors is maybe a little bit of what's going on in the competitive environment, a bit of a step-up in marketing spend to say a lease from a key competitor and lots of discussion debate on how all that might play out? And from your seat, if you guys are kind of seeing this play out what you think about it, what your strategy is and how you kind of plan to I don't know if rebut against that is the right way to think about it, but just plan against some of what you're seeing there on the competitive side.

我想，這是關於交通問題的後續問題。我想，目前投資者之間爭論最大的話題之一可能是競爭環境中發生的事情，例如增加行銷支出以從主要競爭對手那裡獲得租賃，以及關於這一切將如何發展的大量討論辯論？從你們的角度看，如果你們看到了這種情況的發展，你們會怎麼想，你們的策略是什麼，你們計劃如何應對，我不知道反駁這種想法是否是正確的思考方式，但只是針對你們在競爭方面看到的一些情況制定計劃。

I don't want to be cocky about this. To be honest, I spent half the Super Bowl in the bathroom or upstairs making nachos because I didn't want to see these competitor ads. But according to the early reports from Similar Web and other sites to compare traffic. We still got more traffic on Super Bowl Sunday than the company promising to spend zillions of dollars. And our basic thesis is that the best product wins, if you build a better mousetrap, the world beats a path to your door, and we really believe in the quality of our website. I think there was sort of this 1999.com thesis that advertising dollars was the way to win. But mostly, I thought we had left that behind.

我不想對此太過自大。說實話，我在超級盃比賽的一半時間都待在浴室或樓上做玉米片，因為我不想看到這些競爭對手的廣告。但根據 Similar Web 和其他網站的早期報告，可以比較流量。在超級盃星期天，我們的流量仍然比該公司承諾花費的巨額資金還要多。我們的基本論點是，最好的產品才能獲勝，如果你製造出更好的捕鼠器，全世界都會蜂擁而至，我們真的相信我們網站的品質。我認為 1999.com 的論點是，廣告費才是勝利之道。但大多時候我以為我們已經把這拋在腦後了。

And I know that when you get into some kind of advertising war, it depresses margins across the segment, it changes the competitive dynamic. We're certainly aware that there are better capitalized competitors out there. But things have gone better than we could have hoped. I've been really worried about this last year. In June and July, we just told our traffic team. Here it comes. It's coming on strong. It's going to last a long time, keep your head down and keep working. And we weren't sure what the effect would be. But now we know. We've taken a punch, and we're still standing and actually, we're still growing. So we feel pretty good about it.

我知道當你陷入某種廣告戰時，它會壓低整個領域的利潤率，改變競爭態勢。我們當然知道，還有資本較雄厚的競爭對手。但事情的進展比我們所希望的還要好。去年我一直非常擔心這個問題。六月和七月，我們剛剛通知了我們的交通團隊。它來了。它正在變得強大。這會持續很長時間，埋頭苦幹，繼續努力。我們也不確定其效果會怎樣。但現在我們知道了。我們承受了打擊，但我們仍然屹立不倒，事實上，我們還在成長。因此我們對此感覺很好。

All right. That's really helpful. I agree with the quality of the website.

好的。這真的很有幫助。我同意該網站的品質。

Chris, do you have anything to add on that one?

克里斯，你對此還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I don't.

我不知道。

Sorry, Ygal, keep going.

抱歉，Ygal，繼續。

No, that's it. I agree with the quality of the website. That's helpful comment.

不，就是這樣。我同意該網站的品質。這是很有幫助的評論。

Yes. Well, I think that's all the questions. As always, we just wanted to say how much we appreciate the analyst community for following our daily moves. If you have further questions, Chris and Meg will handle them one-on-one with you, but here's to a great 2024. Let's go get them.

是的。好吧，我想這就是所有的問題了。像往常一樣，我們只想說，我們非常感謝分析師社群關注我們的日常動向。如果您還有其他問題，Chris 和 Meg 將會一對一為您解答，但我們祝 2024 年一切順利。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。感謝您的參加，您現在可以斷開線路了。