(RDFN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Redfin Corporation Q4 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to the Head of Investor Relations, Meg Nunnally. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議轉交給投資人關係主管梅格‧納納利 (Meg Nunnally)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2023. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝你，接線生。下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季財務業績電話會議。我是 Redfin 投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長格倫凱爾曼 (Glenn Kelman)；和我們的財務長克里斯尼爾森。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天的電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們對這些前瞻性陳述的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會產生重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures while discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com for more information relating to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against continuing operations for the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務表現的同時介紹非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 Investors.redfin.com 上獲取，以了解有關我們的非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關調節表。除非另有說明，本次電話會議期間進行的所有比較均與去年同期的持續經營業務進行比較。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call, and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束時在我們的網站上提供準備好的講話副本，並且在電話會議後不久也將提供完整的文字記錄和音頻重播。

With that, I'll turn it over to Glenn.

有了這個，我會把它交給格倫。

Thanks, Meg, and hi, everyone. Redfin's fourth quarter earnings were in the middle of the range we gave investors in our last call, a $23 million net loss on $218 million of revenue. Our adjusted EBITDA loss for continuing operations was $13 million, a $27 million improvement over the fourth quarter of 2022.

謝謝梅格，大家好。 Redfin 第四季的利潤處於我們上次電話會議中向投資者提供的範圍的中間位置，即淨虧損 2300 萬美元，收入為 2.18 億美元。我們持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 損失為 1,300 萬美元，比 2022 年第四季減少了 2,700 萬美元。

The fourth quarter's only disappointment was a market share decline. The share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents was 0.72% down from 0.76% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and from 0.78% in the third quarter of 2023. Our market share already recovered in January, increasing above the fourth quarter level.

第四季唯一令人失望的是市佔率下降。由我們自己的代理商以及透過推薦給我們的合作夥伴代理商代理的房屋銷售份額為0.72%，低於2022 年第四季的0.76% 和2023 年第三季的0.78%。我們的市佔率已於1 月恢復，增加高於第四季水準。

We expect share gains to continue in 2024, with much of the revenue from that gain falling to the bottom line. We ended 2023 having lowered full year operating expenses by $62 million, with fourth quarter gross margins improving from 25% in 2022 to 34% in 2023. And we have ample opportunities to grow, using Comscore to compare redfin.com's online audience to that of our 2 main historical rivals, redfin.com grew 13 points faster in 2023.

我們預計 2024 年股價將繼續上漲，其中大部分收入將落入淨利潤。截至 2023 年，我們將全年營運費用降低了 6,200 萬美元，第四季度毛利率從 2022 年的 25% 提高到 2023 年的 34%。透過使用 Comscore 將 redfin.com 的線上受眾與我們的2 個主要歷史競爭對手redfin.com 在2023 年成長了13 個百分點。

The gross sales alongside traffic, we've advanced 3 initiatives to attract better agents and deliver better service. In some pilot markets, we shifted our agents to all variable pay. In others, we restored commission refunds for customers who signed a buyer's agency agreement. In still others, we've required our sales people to meet customers on their first tour. Other -- our agents have embraced these initiatives. And already, we're closing more sales. These initiatives are now being broadened to yield a financially meaningful impact in the summer, with all 3 likely to be nationwide by early 2025.

除了總銷售額和流量外，我們還推出了 3 項措施來吸引更好的代理商並提供更好的服務。在一些試點市場，我們將代理商全部改為浮動薪酬。在其他情況下，我們為簽署買方代理協議的客戶恢復了佣金退款。還有一些情況，我們要求銷售人員在第一次拜訪客戶時與他們會面。其他－我們的代理商已經接受了這些措施。我們已經完成了更多銷售。這些措施目前正在擴大範圍，以便在夏季產生具有經濟意義的影響，到 2025 年初，這三項措施可能會在全國推廣。

In the meantime, we're working hard to introduce more customers to our brokerage. According to Comscore, fourth quarter visitors to redfin.com grew 10% year-over-year, while the growth rates of our 2 main historical rivals were 1% and negative 1%. One factor driving our growth is expansion, once limited to homebuyers in mostly coastal cities, redfin.com now spans homes for rent and for sale nationwide. The markets we've opened by adding listings give us room to build our audience for years to come. And redfin.com keeps getting better, not just bigger. In the fourth quarter, we became the first major site to use artificial intelligence for home shoppers to visualize how a home could be redecorated.

同時，我們正在努力向我們的經紀業務介紹更多客戶。根據 Comscore 的數據，第四季度 redfin.com 的訪問量年增 10%，而我們的兩個主要歷史競爭對手的成長率分別為 1% 和負 1%。推動我們成長的因素之一是擴張，redfin.com 曾經僅限於大多數沿海城市的購屋者，現在已覆蓋全國範圍內的出租和出售房屋。我們透過添加清單打開的市場為我們在未來幾年培養受眾提供了空間。 redfin.com 不斷變得更好，而不僅僅是更大。在第四季度，我們成為第一個使用人工智慧為家居購物者提供可視化房屋重新裝修的主要網站。

First, in mid-Atlantic markets, but with plans to expand this spring. Redfin.com is also servicing more of our agents' local expertise, giving greater prominence to our insights about homes we've toured and capturing new insights about the neighborhood. Here too, we're exploring the use of artificial intelligence, turning raw notes from an agent's phone into a well-phrased comment. Publishing this proprietary information should draw more visitors to our site, and we hope convince more of those visitors to use a Redfin agent. But to compete for sales, not just traffic, we're expanding the 3 fourth quarter initiatives identified at the outset of our call. Since our sales cycle is 6 months, we won't know for sure how well these initiatives are working until April at best, but the early indications could hardly be better.

首先是在大西洋中部市場，但計劃在今年春天擴大規模。 Redfin.com 也為更多代理商的本地專業知識提供服務，更加突出我們對參觀過的房屋的見解，並獲取有關社區的新見解。在這裡，我們也在探索人工智慧的使用，將代理手機上的原始筆記轉化為措辭良好的評論。發布此專有資訊應該會吸引更多訪客造訪我們的網站，我們希望說服更多訪客使用 Redfin 代理商。但為了爭奪銷售量，而不僅僅是流量，我們正在擴大我們在電話會議開始時確定的第 3 個第四季計畫。由於我們的銷售週期為 6 個月，因此最多要到 4 月我們才能確定這些措施的效果如何，但早期跡象再好不過了。

The most significant of these initiatives is Redfin Next, which replaces agent's base salaries with higher commissions. We launched this program as Redfin Max, but changed its name to avoid any confusion with RE/MAX. As of February 22, the revenue closed for January and February and the 4 California markets piloting next is up 32% year-over-year, while the rest of the brokerage is down 1%. In May, we plan to expand Redfin Next to 7 more markets out of more than 100 Redfin markets total. With the expansion, Next we will reach markets that accounted for about 1/3 of Redfin's 2023 brokerage revenues. If the second stage of the pilot goes well, Redfin Next could become our Redfin-wide agent-pay plan in early 2025.

這些舉措中最重要的是 Redfin Next，它以更高的佣金取代了代理商的基本工資。我們以 Redfin Max 的名稱推出了該程序，但更改了名稱以避免與 RE/MAX 混淆。截至2月22日，1月和2月收盤以及接下來試點的4個加州市場的營收年增32%，其餘券商則下降1%。 5 月份，我們計劃將 Redfin Next 擴展到 100 多個 Redfin 市場中的另外 7 個市場。隨著擴張，Next 我們將進入佔 Redfin 2023 年經紀收入約 1/3 的市場。如果第二階段試點進展順利，Redfin Next 可能會在 2025 年初成為我們整個 Redfin 的代理商薪資計畫。

The Next agents we're hiring are coming in large part for the opportunity to meet more customers, but will earn traditional splits on the customers they source themselves. Hiring agents who aren't entirely dependent on our site makes Redfin more resilient to housing market volatility, especially now that we've replaced salaries with larger bonuses.

我們正在招募的下一個代理商很大程度上是為了有機會結識更多客戶，但他們也會從他們自己尋找的客戶中獲得傳統的分成。僱用不完全依賴我們網站的代理商可以使 Redfin 更能適應房地產市場的波動，尤其是現在我們已經用更高的獎金取代了工資。

In the 4 pilot markets, a Next agent is profitable after closing 4 Redfin sourced sales per year compared to 7 previously. As we gather more data on how many customer introductions our Next agents need to be productive, we can be even more aggressive about hiring in 2025. This gives us room to gain share coming out of downturns while limiting our fixed cost headed into downturns. We've had the most success bringing on agents who already know how to be systematic about online opportunities. One Next agent who had been paying a portal $10,000 to $15,000 per month said "he planned to see how it went here at Redfin for a couple of months. But within a few weeks, I started bringing over my team." Another said "she never had so much support to run my business. I'm busy in getting good customers from the site."

在 4 個試點市場中，Next 代理商每年完成 4 筆 Redfin 採購銷售後即可獲利，而之前為 7 筆。隨著我們收集更多關於我們的Next 代理商需要介紹多少客戶才能提高工作效率的數據，我們可以在2025 年更加積極地招聘。這為我們在走出低迷時期獲得份額提供了空間，同時限制了我們進入低迷時期的固定成本。我們在引進那些已經知道如何系統化線上機會的代理商方面取得了最大的成功。一位每月向門戶網站支付 10,000 至 15,000 美元的 Next 代理商表示，“他計劃用幾個月的時間看看 Redfin 的進展如何。但幾週之內，我開始帶我的團隊過來。”另一位網友表示，“她從來沒有得到過如此多的支持來經營我的業務。我正忙著從該網站獲得優質客戶。”

Beyond Next, the brokerage's other 2 initiatives work together to earn a sale from the first meeting between a customer and an agent. All you can meet requires a Redfin agent to meet customers on their first home tour and sign-and-save restores commission refunds to homebuyers who hire us after that first tour. We tested each of different pilot markets in part to understand if an emphasis on meeting customers could drive sales gains by itself without a commission refund.

除了 Next 之外，該經紀公司的其他兩項舉措共同努力，從客戶和代理商之間的第一次會面中獲得一筆銷售。 「您能滿足的一切」要求 Redfin 代理商在客戶的首次購房參觀中與他們會面，並簽署並保存為在第一次參觀後僱用我們的購房者恢復佣金退款。我們對每個不同的試點市場進行了部分測試，以了解強調滿足客戶是否可以在不退還佣金的情況下自行推動銷售成長。

The problem these 2 initiatives address is that portal visitors use agents as a home touring service. Customers who are -- or excuse me, consumers who are once likely to hire the first agent they met now use Redfin and other website to schedule 3 different tours with 3 different agents. To honor so many tour requests, Redfin uses contractors to handle tours when our employees are unavailable. All-you-can-meet assigns customers only to these agents who make themselves available to host the customer's first tour. Agents with more availability get more customers. We still use contractors for subsequent tours, but in the event a lead agent can't break free to host the first tour, we route the customer to a partner agent at a different brokerage, which pays us a referral fee.

這兩項措施解決的問題是門戶訪客使用代理商作為家庭旅遊服務。那些曾經可能僱用他們遇到的第一個代理商的客戶現在使用 Redfin 和其他網站與 3 個不同的代理商安排 3 個不同的旅行。為了滿足如此多的旅行請求，Redfin 在我們的員工不在時聘請承包商來處理旅行。無限量見面僅將客戶分配給這些可以接待客戶第一次旅行的代理商。具有更多可用性的代理商可以獲得更多客戶。我們仍然使用承包商進行後續旅行，但如果首席代理人無法擺脫第一次旅行的束縛，我們會將客戶路由到不同經紀公司的合作夥伴代理人，後者向我們支付推薦費。

Since we launched the all-you-can-meet initiative on November 15, 2023, Redfin agents in the 4 pilot markets have gone from hosting 60% to 65% of first tours to hosting virtually all of them. Just last week, we expanded this initiative to reach more than 50 markets. Our Atlanta market manager says it has restored lead agent as the face of Redfin.

自從我們在 2023 年 11 月 15 日推出「無限量見面」計畫以來，4 個試點市場的 Redfin 代理商已經從接待 60% 到 65% 的首次巡演變成了幾乎接待所有巡演。就在上週，我們將該計劃擴展到了 50 多個市場。我們的亞特蘭大市場經理表示，已恢復首席代理商作為 Redfin 的代言人。

Meeting customers on their first tour sets up the Redfin agent to offer a commission refund of 0.25% to 0.5% to customers who hire us before their second home tour. We memorialized the hiring decision and the refund amount in a buyer's agency agreement. Restoring refunds is a reversal for Redfin as we had concluded in the fall of 2022 that refunds were not an effective sales tool. But we believe that was because many agents didn't use the refund as a sales tool, rarely mentioning it to customers, and never asking customers for a commitment in exchange for the refund. We now expect agents to discuss the refund on the first tour. The customers can decide whether it's worthwhile to sign the buyer's agency agreement before the next tour.

在首次巡演中與客戶會面後，Redfin 代理商將向在第二次巡演前僱用我們的客戶提供 0.25% 至 0.5% 的佣金退款。我們在買方代理協議中記錄了僱用決定和退款金額。恢復退款對 Redfin 來說是一個逆轉，因為我們在 2022 年秋季得出的結論是，退款並不是有效的銷售工具。但我們認為，這是因為許多代理商沒有將退款當作銷售工具，很少向客戶提及，也從未要求客戶做出退款承諾。我們現在希望代理商能夠討論第一次旅行的退款問題。客戶可以在下次遊覽前決定是否值得簽署買家代理協議。

Our guess is that about half our sales will come from customers who sign the agreement and get the refund and half will come from customers who later decide to work with us without a refund. This customer incentive, known as sign-and-save, launched in 4 markets on September 21 and is already increasing sales. By comparing close rate gains in pilot markets and control markets, we concluded that pilot market homebuyers are 24% more likely to write a winning offer via Redfin within 60 days of their first tour. The 24% increase spanned customers who signed the agreement to get a refund and those who didn't, it's easily large enough to offset the cost of the refunds for those customers who got it.

我們的猜測是，大約一半的銷售額將來自簽署協議並獲得退款的客戶，另一半將來自後來決定與我們合作而不退款的客戶。這項名為「即簽即保存」的客戶激勵措施於 9 月 21 日在 4 個市場推出，並且已經開始增加銷售量。透過比較試點市場和控制市場的接近利率漲幅，我們得出結論，試點市場購屋者在首次參觀後 60 天內透過 Redfin 寫出中標報價的可能性高出 24%。 24% 的增幅涵蓋了簽署退款協議的客戶和未簽署協議的客戶，這一增幅足以抵消獲得退款的客戶的退款成本。

In March, we plan to expand the pilot to almost every market, excluding only markets in a handful of states that outlaw commission refunds. We believe a more motivated next agent set up by our system to meet every customer, with an offer a few other brokerages can match, will deliver significantly better results.

三月份，我們計劃將試點範圍擴大到幾乎所有市場，僅排除少數禁止佣金退款的州的市場。我們相信，透過我們的系統建立的更有動力的下一個代理商來滿足每一位客戶，並提供一些其他經紀公司可以匹配的報價，將帶來更好的結果。

Bay Equity, the lender we acquired in April 2022 is also improving sales execution. In the fourth quarter, a higher proportion of our brokerages homebuyers used pay equity for a mortgage. Attach rates have declined from 19% in the second quarter to 18% in the third before bouncing back to 19% in the fourth.

我們於 2022 年 4 月收購的貸款機構 Bay Equity 也正在改善銷售執行力。在第四季度，我們的經紀購屋者中使用薪資公平來支付抵押貸款的比例更高。附加率從第二季的 19% 下降至第三季的 18%，然後在第四季反彈至 19%。

Excluding cash buyers, Bay Equity's fourth quarter attach rate was 25%, up from 22% in the third quarter and 24% in the second. Projected attach rates for the first quarter of 2024 are even higher. We expect that growth to continue through the rest of 2024, driven by simpler manager incentives and in markets where the law allows it, new agent incentives. We've also integrated Bay Equity deeper into our sales process, automatically alerting loan officers not only when a customer first asks to tour a home, but also now when our offer has been accepted.

不包括現金買家，Bay Equity第四季的附加率為25%，高於第三季的22%和第二季的24%。預計 2024 年第一季的附加率甚至更高。我們預計，在更簡單的經理激勵措施以及法律允許的市場中新的代理商激勵措施的推動下，這種增長將持續到 2024 年剩餘時間。我們還將 Bay Equity 更深入地整合到我們的銷售流程中，不僅在客戶第一次要求參觀房屋時，而且在我們的報價被接受時，都會自動提醒信貸員。

Another basis for optimism is the lending industry itself, which has reduced staff to the point that competitors have been less willing to lose money on loans, giving us room in 2024 for improving gains on sale. If rates ease further in the back half of the year, we also expect to refinance more mortgages with demand coming from our website, but also from our database of past customers.

樂觀的另一個基礎是貸款行業本身，該行業已經減少了員工數量，以至於競爭對手不太願意在貸款上虧損，這為我們在 2024 年提高銷售收益提供了空間。如果下半年利率進一步下降，我們也預計將根據我們網站以及我們過去客戶資料庫的需求為更多抵押貸款進行再融資。

Potential improvements in the for-sale market may buoy our brokerage and lending businesses, but the customers of our rentals business are under pressure from higher vacancy rates. Even so, Rent generated $3 million of fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA on 20% year-over-year revenue growth, with positive net bookings. This is the second consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA profits for a business that as recently as the first quarter of 2023 lost $9.7 million in adjusted EBITDA.

待售市場的潛在改善可能會提振我們的經紀和貸款業務，但我們的租賃業務的客戶面臨空置率上升的壓力。即便如此，Rent 第四季調整後 EBITDA 仍實現 300 萬美元，營收年增 20%，淨預訂量為正值。這是一家企業連續第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤，該企業在 2023 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 損失了 970 萬美元。

To grow revenue and earn a full year adjusted EBITDA profit in a more challenging market, we're now integrating Rent and Redfin human resources, finance and legal departments as well as technology infrastructure. Starting this summer, continuing through the first quarter of 2025, we expect significant savings from migrating to one cloud platform, one HR system, one finance system, one benefits plan.

為了在更具挑戰性的市場中增加收入並賺取全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤，我們現在正在整合 Rent 和 Redfin 的人力資源、財務和法律部門以及技術基礎設施。從今年夏天開始，一直持續到 2025 年第一季度，我們預計透過遷移到一個雲端平台、一個人力資源系統、一個財務系統和一個福利計劃，可以節省大量成本。

These efficiency gains will let us invest more in rent.com and apartmentguide.com and more in Rent sales and industry marketing, which will still run from Atlanta. Redfin and Rent will work together to increase tenant inquiries for Rent's customers, drawing on Redfin's expertise at attracting visitors from search engines, using machine learning to engage those visitors and experimenting at scale to generate more leasing demand from our audience. These efforts will take months to bear fruit, but should lead to a larger, more profitable rentals marketplace.

這些效率的提高將使我們對rent.com和apartmentguide.com進行更多投資，並對租金銷售和行業行銷進行更多投資，這些業務仍將在亞特蘭大營運。 Redfin 和 Rent 將攜手合作，利用 Redfin 在吸引搜尋引擎訪客方面的專業知識，利用機器學習吸引這些訪客，並進行大規模試驗以產生更多受眾的租賃需求，從而增加 Rent 客戶的租戶查詢。這些努力需要幾個月的時間才能取得成果，但應該會帶來更大、更有利可圖的租賃市場。

Rent is part of a larger initiative to generate more revenue from digital sources. Our other business segment, which consists of Title Forward and digital channels, grew fourth quarter revenues to $10 million, up 54% year-over-year. Title Forward grew fourth quarter revenues 32% and is generating its first full year gross profit since 2019. Our digital businesses, which include a mortgage marketplace, display ads on redfin.com, lead generation for builders and syndicating Walk Score to other real estate sites grew fourth quarter revenue 101%. We've now hired an experienced leader to build our display ads business and expect further revenue increases in 2024.

租金是一項更大計劃的一部分，旨在透過數位來源創造更多收入。我們的其他業務部門（包括 Title Forward 和數位頻道）第四季營收成長至 1,000 萬美元，較去年同期成長 54%。 Title Forward 第四季營收成長了32%，並實現了自2019 年以來的首次全年毛利。我們的數位業務包括抵押貸款市場、redfin.com 上的展示廣告、為建築商開發潛在客戶以及將Walk Score 聯合到其他房地產網站第四季營收成長101%。我們現已聘請了一位經驗豐富的領導者來打造我們的展示廣告業務，並預計 2024 年收入將進一步成長。

Before turning the call over to Chris, let's discuss the housing market which is still almost entirely driven by mortgage interest rates. Our concern has been that 2024 will turn out like 2023 when rates approached 6% in January then rose, peaking above 8% in October. Rates subsequently declined approaching 6.5% in mid-December until climbing again to above 7% in February 2024. This recent rate increase has dampened 2024 demand. But the people now coming into the housing market know what they're getting into, having become more accustomed to mortgage rate volatility.

在將電話轉給克里斯之前，讓我們先討論一下幾乎完全由抵押貸款利率驅動的房地產市場。我們擔心 2024 年的結果會像 2023 年一樣，1 月利率接近 6%，然後上升，10 月達到 8% 以上的高峰。隨後，利率在 12 月中旬下降至接近 6.5%，直到 2024 年 2 月再次攀升至 7% 以上。最近的升息抑制了 2024 年的需求。但現在進入房地產市場的人們知道他們正在進入什麼，他們已經更習慣了抵押貸款利率的波動。

Some also seem to recognize that when rates do ease, the market is likely to get more competitive. Already, our agents have reported a mostly seasonal resurgence in bidding wars at one extreme, a Fremont California listing got 50 offers last week. Redfin's listing demand increased sharply coming into 2024, but moderated in February. Home buying demand wasn't as strong, but has held up better, from customers asking to tour their first listing with Redfin all the way through to book sales.

有些人似乎也意識到，當利率確實放鬆時，市場的競爭可能會變得更加激烈。我們的經紀人已經報告稱，競購戰在一個極端情況下出現了季節性復甦，加州弗里蒙特的一處房源上週收到了 50 份出價。進入 2024 年，Redfin 的上市需求急劇增加，但在 2 月有所放緩。購屋需求雖然沒有那麼強勁，但從客戶要求參觀他們在 Redfin 上首次上市的房屋一直到圖書銷售，都表現得更好。

Industry-wide, seasonally adjusted existing home sales increased in January to an annualized rate of 4.0 million after being below 4.0 million since September. If there isn't a significant further increase in mortgage interest rates, we expect 2024 home sales to remain at or above the 4.0 million level through the first half. If there is any mortgage rate relief in the spring, the second half could be much stronger.

全行業經季節性調整的現房銷售自 9 月以來年化成長率低於 400 萬套，1 月則成長至 400 萬套。如果抵押貸款利率沒有進一步大幅上漲，我們預計 2024 年上半年房屋銷售將保持在 400 萬套或以上的水平。如果春季抵押貸款利率有所放鬆，下半年的情況可能會更加強勁。

We aren't counting any chickens until they hatch. To minimize the first quarter losses we usually incur in anticipation of our busy season, Redfin deferred mass media advertising until the second quarter, hosted our sales kick-off virtually and limited first quarter business travel to employees in sales. Rather than waiting for a major housing market recovery, Redfin plans to grow, at least modestly through market share gains, by competing better for traffic and for sales, and then much faster when the housing market recovers.

在小雞孵化之前我們不會數它們。為了最大限度地減少第一季的損失，我們通常會因預計旺季而遭受損失，Redfin 將大眾媒體廣告推遲到第二季度，虛擬地舉辦了我們的銷售啟動儀式，並限制了第一季銷售員工的商務旅行。 Redfin 不會等待房地產市場大幅復甦，而是計劃透過更好地爭奪流量和銷售來實現成長，至少透過市場份額的成長實現適度成長，然後在房地產市場復甦時更快地成長。

Take it away, Chris.

把它拿走，克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. The fourth quarter closed a challenging year for the housing industry. Still, we're pleased with the work we've done to improve profitability, and position the business to capture growth when the market begins to recover.

謝謝，格倫。第四季對房地產產業來說是充滿挑戰的一年。儘管如此，我們對我們為提高盈利能力所做的工作感到滿意，並讓業務在市場開始復甦時抓住成長。

Fourth quarter revenue was $218 million, down 2% from a year ago. At the same time, gross profit of $73 million was up 32% year-over-year and total gross margin expanded from 25% to 34%. Each of our segments increased gross margin year-over-year and our higher margin rentals and other segments grew faster than the rest of the business. Our adjusted EBITDA loss of $13 million was up from a loss of $40 million in the prior year. For the full year 2023, our adjusted EBITDA loss was $76 million, up from $145 million in the prior year.

第四季營收為 2.18 億美元，年減 2%。同時，毛利為 7,300 萬美元，年增 32%，總毛利率從 25% 擴大至 34%。我們每個部門的毛利率都較去年同期成長，而我們利潤率較高的租金和其他部門的成長速度快於其他業務。我們調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 1,300 萬美元，高於前一年的 4,000 萬美元虧損。 2023 年全年，我們調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 7,600 萬美元，高於前一年的 1.45 億美元。

We've been saying for several quarters that we're working towards a goal of trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the first half of 2024. This is still possible, but less certain now given how mortgage interest rates have started this year but we're on track for full year profits.

幾個季度以來，我們一直在說，我們正在努力實現到2024 年上半年實現12 個月調整後EBITDA 盈虧平衡的目標。這仍然是可能的，但考慮到今年抵押貸款利率的開始情況，目前還不太確定，但我們有望全年獲利。

Turning to our segment results for the fourth quarter, real estate services, which includes our brokerage and partner businesses, generated $133 million in revenue, down 9% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue was down 11% on a 20% decrease in brokerage transactions, partially offset by a 12% increase in brokerage revenue per transaction. The increase in revenue per brokerage transaction was driven by the reduction of our home buyer commission refund, revenue from concierge renovations and a 4% increase in average home prices. Revenue from our partners increased 19%, on a 16% increase in transactions and mix shift to higher-value houses.

轉向我們第四季的分部業績，房地產服務（包括我們的經紀和合作夥伴業務）產生了 1.33 億美元的收入，年減 9%。由於經紀交易減少 20%，經紀收入下降 11%，但每筆交易經紀收入增加 12% 部分抵消了這一影響。每筆經紀交易收入的成長是由購屋者佣金退款減少、禮賓裝修收入以及平均房價上漲 4% 所推動的。來自我們合作夥伴的收入增長了 19%，交易量增長了 16%，並且混合轉向更高價值的房屋。

Real estate services gross margin was 22.5%, up 450 basis points year-over-year. This is primarily driven by a 590 basis point decrease in personnel costs and transaction bonuses and a 100 basis point decrease in home touring and field expenses, partially offset by a 190 basis point increase in seller home improvement expenses, each as a percentage of revenue. Net loss for real estate services in the fourth quarter was $21 million, up from a net loss of $28 million in the prior year and adjusted EBITDA loss was $7 million, up from a loss of $16 million in the prior year. The increase is attributable to higher gross margin and lower operating expenses, which more than offset lower revenues.

房地產服務毛利率為22.5%，較去年同期成長450個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金下降了 590 個基點，以及家庭巡迴演出和現場費用減少了 100 個基點，部分被賣家家居裝修費用增加 190 個基點（均佔收入的百分比）所抵消。第四季房地產服務淨虧損為 2,100 萬美元，高於上年淨虧損 2,800 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 700 萬美元，高於去年虧損 1,600 萬美元。這一增長歸因於毛利率的提高和營運費用的降低，這足以抵消收入的下降。

Our rental segment posted its fifth straight quarter of growth with revenue of $49 million, a 20% year-over-year increase. Rentals gross margin was 77.5%, up from 76.4% a year ago. Net loss for rentals was $10 million, up from a net loss of $22 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $3 million, our second straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA for the rental segue. Our Mortgage segment generated $26 million in revenue, down 8% year-over-year. Mortgage gross margin was 4.6%, up from a negative 8.9% a year ago. This is primarily driven by a decrease in personnel costs as a percentage of revenue. Net loss for mortgage was $5 million, up from a loss of $12 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $5 million compared to a $10 million loss in the prior year.

我們的租賃部門連續第五個季度成長，營收達到 4,900 萬美元，年增 20%。租金毛利率為 77.5%，高於一年前的 76.4%。租金淨虧損為 1,000 萬美元，高於前一年的淨虧損 2,200 萬美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 300 萬美元，這是我們租賃業務連續第二季調整後 EBITDA 為正值。我們的抵押貸款部門產生了 2,600 萬美元的收入，年減 8%。房貸毛利率為 4.6%，高於一年前的負值 8.9%。這主要是由於人員成本佔收入的百分比下降所致。抵押貸款淨損失為 500 萬美元，高於前一年的 1,200 萬美元損失。調整後 EBITDA 損失為 500 萬美元，而前一年為 1,000 萬美元。

Our other segment generated revenue of $10 million, up 54% year-over-year as both our title and digital revenue businesses grew. Other segment gross margin was 40.6%, up from 7.4% a year ago. Net income was $2 million compared to a $1 million loss in the prior year. And adjusted EBITDA was positive $3 million compared to a negative $1 million in the prior year.

隨著我們的遊戲和數位收入業務的成長，我們的其他部門產生了 1000 萬美元的收入，年增 54%。其他分部毛利率為 40.6%，高於一年前的 7.4%。淨利為 200 萬美元，而上一年虧損 100 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為正 300 萬美元，而前一年為負 100 萬美元。

Turning back to our consolidated results. Total operating expenses were $117 million, down $25 million year-over-year. The decrease was primarily attributable to $13 million in lower restructuring expenses, $3 million in lower marketing expenses and $2 million in lower personnel expenses. Net loss was $23 million compared to a net loss from continuing operations of $27 million in the prior year or $62 million, including discontinued operations. This is within our $27 million to $18 million loss guidance range includes a $25 million gain on the extinguishment of notes, which was anticipated in our guidance.

回到我們的綜合業績。總營運費用為 1.17 億美元，年減 2,500 萬美元。減少的主要原因是重組費用減少了 1300 萬美元，行銷費用減少了 300 萬美元，人事費用減少了 200 萬美元。淨虧損為 2,300 萬美元，而上一年持續經營業務淨虧損為 2,700 萬美元，包括終止經營業務在內的淨虧損為 6,200 萬美元。這在我們 2700 萬至 1800 萬美元的損失指導範圍內，其中包括票據註銷帶來的 2500 萬美元收益，這是我們的指導中預期的。

Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $13 million, in line with our guidance range. Diluted loss per share attributable to common stock was $0.20 compared with a loss of $0.25 one year ago.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 損失為 1300 萬美元，符合我們的指導範圍。普通股攤薄每股虧損為 0.20 美元，而一年前為 0.25 美元。

Now turning to our financial expectations for the first quarter. For the first quarter of 2024, total revenue is expected to be flat on the low end or grow 4% on the high end. Real estate services revenue is expected to decline 1% on the low end or grow 3% on the high end with gross margin around 14% to 17%. We do not expect a material change in revenue per brokerage transaction as a result of the homebuyer refund that Glenn mentioned earlier. Rentals revenue is expected to continue to grow between 13% and 16%, mortgage revenue is expected to decline between 20% and 11%.

現在轉向我們對第一季的財務預期。 2024 年第一季度，總收入預計低端持平或高端成長 4%。房地產服務收入預計低階下降 1%，高端成長 3%，毛利率約 14% 至 17%。我們預計每筆經紀交易的收入不會因格倫之前提到的購屋者退款而發生重大變化。租金收入預計將持續成長13%至16%，抵押貸款收入預計將下降20%至11%。

Finally, other segment revenue is expected to grow between 28% and 29%. Total net loss is expected to be between $72 million and $65 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss from continuing operations is expected to be between $36 million and $29 million.

最後，其他部門的收入預計將成長 28% 至 29%。總淨虧損預計在 7,200 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元之間。持續經營業務調整後的 EBITDA 損失預計在 3,600 萬美元至 2,900 萬美元之間。

And with that, let's take your questions.

接下來，讓我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Naved Khan of B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Naved Khan。

Yes. Just a couple of questions from me. So just on Next, it's great to hear the breakeven on this one is faster versus your traditional model. But my question is on the flip side of this, i.e., if there -- if you're in a healthy market, does it actually cap the potential profitability and revenue as well because you're -- it's more of a variable structure.

是的。我只想問幾個問題。因此，就在 Next 上，很高興聽到這個車型的損益平衡比傳統車型更快。但我的問題是另一方面，也就是說，如果你處於一個健康的市場中，它實際上是否也限制了潛在的盈利能力和收入，因為你——它更多的是一個可變的結構。

The other question I had is around rentals. So we heard from Zillow a few weeks ago, and they were seeing continuing strength in rentals, wondering if there's a disconnect or in different markets where we should be seeing slowdown in your rental book? And maybe for Chris, the last question on the sort of the role post of getting to EBITDA breakeven in the first half, are we not looking at full year '24? Or how should we think about that?

我的另一個問題是關於租金的。因此，幾週前我們收到 Zillow 的來信，他們看到租金持續強勁，想知道是否存在脫節，或者在不同的市場中，我們應該看到租金放緩？也許對克里斯來說，關於上半年實現 EBITDA 盈虧平衡的角色職位的最後一個問題是，我們不是在考慮 24 年全年嗎？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Chris, why don't I take the first 2 and you can handle the third. On Next, we are not worried about capping the upside. We think that the gross margin profile for Redfin source deals will be similar or better to what it has been with our salaried employee model. If Next agents start doing more self-source sales where they bring customers to us. That will have a different margin profile, but it will just be incremental gross profit. And I think that's less driven by the cycle than it is by just the mix of business that different Next agents will offer Redfin, but it should be incremental gross profit growth and monetizing our website, it should be a similar gross margin.

克里斯，為什麼我不拿前兩個，你可以處理第三個。接下來，我們並不擔心限制上漲空間。我們認為 Redfin 來源交易的毛利率狀況將與我們的受薪員工模型相似或更好。如果 Next 代理商開始進行更多的自源銷售，將客戶帶到我們這裡。這將有不同的利潤率狀況，但這只是增量毛利。我認為這與其說是受週期的驅動，不如說是受不同Next 代理商為Redfin 提供的業務組合的驅動，但它應該是增量毛利潤增長和我們網站的貨幣化，應該是類似的毛利率。

The larger point in a bull market is that Next will allow us to be more aggressive about hiring because we have fewer fixed costs, we can add agent capacity. I think the critique of Redfin has sometimes been that extreme market volatility has meant that we were one step behind in a downturn because we couldn't let people off fast enough. And then we were one step behind in a sudden rally because we couldn't hire people fast enough. But because the Next agent is profitable with almost half the number of sales that a salaried employee is we could be more aggressive about hiring those agents without carrying so much fixed cost.

牛市中更重要的一點是，Next 將使我們能夠更加積極地招聘，因為我們的固定成本更少，我們可以增加代理能力。我認為對 Redfin 的批評有時是，極端的市場波動意味著我們在經濟低迷時期落後了一步，因為我們無法足夠快地讓人們離開。然後我們在突然的反彈中落後了一步，因為我們無法足夠快地招募人員。但是，由於下一個代理商的獲利能力幾乎是受薪員工的一半，因此我們可以更積極地僱用這些代理商，而無需承擔如此多的固定成本。

So I think it actually gives us upside in a bull market. On the Rental segment, Zillow might be more bullish than we are. It's just a matter of degree. 2023 was a really strong market for rentals marketplaces. There was at least a 20-point tailwind in the market, and that is moderating slightly because more buildings are coming online. So I think there is some lease-up opportunities if you are the vendor chosen to help fill those buildings, but most of the customers who are just trying to maintain their buildings have more budget pressure because they're having a hard time just meeting their loan covenants and keeping their buildings full.

所以我認為這實際上為我們帶來了牛市的上漲空間。在租賃領域，Zillow 可能比我們更樂觀。這只是程度問題。 2023 年對租賃市場來說是一個非常強勁的市場。市場至少出現了 20 點的順風，但由於越來越多的建築投入使用，這種趨勢正在略有放緩。因此，我認為，如果您是被選來幫助填充這些建築物的供應商，則存在一些租賃機會，但大多數只是想維護建築物的客戶會面臨更大的預算壓力，因為他們很難滿足他們的需求貸款契約並保持建築物滿員。

And this is Chris. I can comment on our profit targets. We are still working to profits on a trailing 12-month basis through the first half of this year. I'm not sure I have a lot to add other than my comment, which is that's still possible but less certain. And the big variable here is about revenue growth in the second quarter. We don't have a lot of visibility to that at this point. And we know that it will be subject to mortgage interest rates, which have started the year really higher than we expected them to. And so that's the piece that we'll be watching. But really, this is about the revenue growth in that next period as opposed to anything else.

這是克里斯。我可以評論我們的利潤目標。截至今年上半年，我們仍在努力實現過去 12 個月的獲利。除了我的評論之外，我不確定我還有很多要補充的，這仍然是可能的，但不太確定。這裡最大的變數是第二季的營收成長。目前我們對此還沒有太多了解。我們知道，它將受到抵押貸款利率的影響，今年年初的抵押貸款利率確實高於我們的預期。這就是我們將要觀看的作品。但實際上，這與下一時期的收入成長有關，而不是其他任何事情。

Our next question comes from Tom White of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Tom White。戴維森。

Maybe just a follow-up on the EBITDA or kind of cash flow timetable. I guess the question is more, I guess, related to your liquidity. The balance sheet looks strong in terms of cash and equivalents. I think it's nearly $200 million. But Chris, maybe could you just walk us through like your kind of required sort of debt pay down or paying down on the warehouse over the next 12 months? And just kind of trying to think about your cash needs on that front relative to the $75 million kind of minimum cash balance you have to keep as part of that Apollo deal. Like maybe just you can describe how you're sort of -- you guys are feeling about that? Like do you feel like you've got the flexibility to kind of do what you need to do to reposition the company for growth once the market picks up?

也許只是 EBITDA 或某種現金流時間表的後續行動。我想這個問題與你的流動性有關。就現金和等價物而言，資產負債表看起來很強勁。我認為接近2億美元。但是克里斯，也許您可以向我們介紹一下您在未來 12 個月內需要償還的債務或倉庫的債務嗎？試著考慮一下你在這方面的現金需求，以及作為阿波羅交易的一部分你必須保留的 7500 萬美元的最低現金餘額。也許你可以描述一下你的感受——你們對此有何感受？您是否覺得一旦市場回暖，您就可以靈活地採取必要措施來重新定位公司以實現成長？

Yes, the short answer to your question is we do feel good about our capital position. So at the end of the quarter, we had $195 million of cash and equivalents on the balance sheet. It's important to note also that we have another $125 million that we could draw from Apollo as part of the transaction. So that gives us plenty of capacity there against the notes that we have due in 2025, which are now down to $193 million after the repurchases that we've been making. So again, we feel like we've got plenty of capital to manage the business here. We're focused on driving the profits and beyond that, but we do feel like we've got the right flexibility to continue to navigate the business through all of that.

是的，對你的問題的簡短回答是我們對我們的資本狀況確實感覺良好。因此，到本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 1.95 億美元的現金和等價物。還需要注意的是，作為交易的一部分，我們還可以從 Apollo 提取另外 1.25 億美元。因此，這為我們提供了足夠的能力來應對 2025 年到期的票據，在我們進行回購之後，這些票據現在已降至 1.93 億美元。再說一次，我們覺得我們有足夠的資本來管理這裡的業務。我們專注於提高利潤及其他目標，但我們確實認為我們擁有適當的靈活性來繼續引導業務度過這一切。

The next question comes from [Dae Lee] of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的[Dae Lee]。

I have two. First one, following up on Redfin Next, I'm just curious to think on what the earnings feedbacks have been like? And you can notice that the some key differences in the performance between your Next agent and your traditional agents. And I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。第一個是 Redfin Next 的後續，我只是好奇想一下收益回饋是什麼樣的？您會注意到 Next 代理程式與傳統代理程式之間的效能存在一些關鍵差異。我有一個後續行動。

Sure. I just want to make sure I heard the question. Could you repeat how has the reception been among the agents we hired?

當然。我只是想確保我聽到了這個問題。您能再說一下我們聘請的代理商的接待情況如何嗎？

Yes. So what are the early feedback been like among the agents that you hire and if you're noticing any key differences in performance between your Next agents and your traditional agents.

是的。那麼您僱用的代理商的早期回饋是什麼樣的，以及您是否注意到您的下一個代理商和傳統代理商之間在績效方面存在任何關鍵差異。

Great. Well, the feedback has been, first, that contact quality has been better than they'd expected. Many of them have been paying to meet customers through other websites, but Redfin just has a long history of eating its own dog food, where the opportunities we generate are served by our own employees, so that feedback loop over many, many years has just made us focus on qualification more maybe than other websites. And so agents have been pleased that the quantity, especially the quality of opportunities that they're getting.

偉大的。嗯，回饋是，首先，聯繫品質比他們預期的要好。他們中的許多人一直在透過其他網站付費來結識客戶，但 Redfin 長期以來一直在吃自己的狗糧，我們創造的機會是由我們自己的員工提供的，因此多年來的反饋循環只是讓我們比其他網站更關注資格。因此，代理商對他們獲得的機會的數量，尤其是品質感到滿意。

Maybe the second point is that they're happy about what we call a business in a box that to succeed as an agent, especially at scale, you sometimes have to hire a transaction coordinator. You might want some people to help you with tours on the weekends. People here are set up from day one to be top producers where all of that infrastructure is taken care of. And then they love the systems. The challenges are making sure we support not just the brand of Redfin, but the brand of the agent. That's an area where other brokerages have really excelled. And then just making sure we support their autonomy. These are people who are used to working for themselves. They are more entrepreneurial. We see that as a feature, not a bug. And so far, it's just been fantastic. So we're really excited about that. They behave differently.

也許第二點是，他們對我們所說的盒子裡的業務感到高興，為了作為代理商取得成功，特別是在規模上，有時你必須僱用一名交易協調員。您可能需要有人在週末幫助您遊覽。這裡的人們從第一天起就被設定為頂級生產者，所有基礎設施都得到照顧。然後他們喜歡這個系統。面臨的挑戰是確保我們不僅支持 Redfin 的品牌，而且還支持代理商的品牌。這是其他經紀公司真正擅長的領域。然後確保我們支持他們的自治。這些人習慣為自己工作。他們更具創業精神。我們認為這是一個功能，而不是一個錯誤。到目前為止，一切都太棒了。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。他們的行為不同。

To get to the second part of your question, mostly in terms of how they view the opportunities that they get from our site as precious, but also as a starting point for building their business. So it's not just -- I'm going to get a sale from this one customer, but I'm going to use it to generate referrals. So they are mining our customer database. They're surprised at how much access they have to past customers of Redfin in their neighborhoods and they're just working hard or not just to work off the new opportunities, but to create sales from the repeat and referral business. So those are the main differences. It's really rejuvenated the culture of Redfin, not just among these new hires, but among all of the other agents who see how aggressive the new hires are about prosecuting these opportunities. It's been fantastic.

談到你問題的第二部分，主要是他們如何看待從我們網站獲得的機會是寶貴的，也是建立業務的起點。所以這不僅僅是——我將從這個客戶那裡獲得一筆銷售，而且我將用它來產生推薦。所以他們正在挖掘我們的客戶資料庫。他們驚訝地發現，他們在自己的社區中能夠接觸到 Redfin 的老客戶，而且他們只是在努力工作，或者不僅僅是為了抓住新的機會，而是為了透過重複和推薦業務來創造銷售。這些是主要的區別。這確實使 Redfin 的文化煥發了活力，不僅在這些新員工中，而且在所有其他代理商中，他們都看到了新員工在爭取這些機會方面的積極性。太棒了。

Got it. And I guess as a follow-up, it's great to hear that you guys are expecting to gain shares through 2024. So first of all, just curious why shares have declined in 4Q? And wondering what gives you the confidence in your share gain expectations as we move through the year?

知道了。我想作為後續行動，很高興聽到你們預計在 2024 年之前獲得股票。所以首先，只是好奇為什麼股票在第四季度下跌了？想知道是什麼讓您對今年的股票收益預期充滿信心？

Well, the 3 sales initiatives we outlined are what give us confidence. Close rate has been declining for many, many years. So to include in this print an actual close rate gain from the sign-and-save program where we tie the commission refund to a buyer's agency agreement, that is a seismic result from my perspective. And I know it's still early because we're just judging off the first 60 or 90 days, this cohort of customers who met us in November or December, how many of them have closed. But it's a very positive sign and to see also this very strong revenue growth in these high-end coastal markets like L.A., San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County, where we have had real share problems for 2 or 3 years. That, again, is a massive reversal.

嗯，我們概述的 3 項銷售措施給了我們信心。多年來，成交率一直在下降。因此，在這份印刷品中包含從「簽收保存」計劃中獲得的實際成交率收益，在該計劃中，我們將佣金退款與買方代理協議聯繫起來，從我的角度來看，這是一個令人震驚的結果。我知道現在還為時過早，因為我們只是在判斷前 60 或 90 天，這群在 11 月或 12 月遇到我們的客戶，其中有多少已經關門了。但這是一個非常積極的跡象，而且在洛杉磯、舊金山、聖地亞哥和奧蘭治縣等高端沿海市場也看到了非常強勁的收入增長，在這些市場，我們已經有兩三年的實際份額問題了。這又是一個巨大的逆轉。

And so all of these initiatives started in September or October, some of them in November. And they're just now taking hold. And the fact that we seem to be 3 for 3, that all 3 are working really makes a difference. And the proof there is that we've scaled them very quickly. Normally, we take a year or so because the benefit is quite marginal. It's hard to identify. You have to wait for the data to cure over a long period of time. But sometimes the result is so big and obvious you just push the button and let it go bigger. And so if things hold up the way that they are, we're going to have a really good year because traffic has always been a strength of Redfin and now we're coupling that with really great sales execution.

因此，所有這些舉措都是在 9 月或 10 月開始的，其中一些是在 11 月開始的。他們現在才剛佔上風。事實上，我們似乎是 3 對 3，所有 3 個人都在工作，這確實很重要。事實證明，我們已經非常迅速地擴展了它們。通常，我們需要一年左右的時間，因為收益非常微薄。很難識別。你必須等待很長一段時間數據固化。但有時結果是如此巨大和明顯，你只需按下按鈕，讓它變得更大。因此，如果事情保持現狀，我們將度過非常好的一年，因為流量一直是 Redfin 的優勢，現在我們將其與真正出色的銷售執行力結合起來。

So as for Q4, what happened, I don't know. I mean part of it is that we sometimes tell our listing customers not to put their homes on the market in November and December. I don't think other brokerages are as aggressive about that, a traditional agent if he has an opportunity to activate a listing, he or she is going to take it, whereas at Redfin, we tend to think that it's in the customer's best interest not to list during the holidays and to push it out until January.

至於第四季度，發生了什麼，我不知道。我的意思是，部分原因是我們有時會告訴上市客戶不要在 11 月和 12 月將房屋推向市場。我不認為其他經紀公司對此如此積極，傳統代理商如果有機會激活上市，他或她就會接受它，而在 Redfin，我們傾向於認為這符合客戶的最大利益假期期間不上市，並將其推遲到一月。

But that doesn't explain all of it. Sometimes you just have mixed sales results. And now that we're doing something different, I think we're going to have much different sales results. I was not happy about the share print in Q4, and I'm very excited about it going forward. I think we're on the right track.

但這並不能解釋全部。有時您的銷售結果好壞參半。現在我們正在做一些不同的事情，我認為我們將會有非常不同的銷售結果。我對第四季的股票印刷並不滿意，但我對它的未來感到非常興奮。我認為我們走在正確的軌道上。

The next question comes from John Campbell of Stephens Inc.

下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯公司的約翰坎貝爾。

Glenn, maybe on a big picture industry question, I might be looking too far into this. It seems like the new sign-and-save program is basically implying that you guys see a future or, I guess, a potential in the buyer agency agreement. My question is, do you think the industry eventually aligns with you and that the buyer agency agreement becomes a new standard in time?

格倫，也許在一個宏觀的行業問題上，我可能對此研究得太深了。看來新的「簽署並保存」計劃基本上意味著你們看到了未來，或者我猜，買方代理協議中的潛力。我的問題是，您認為這個行業最終會與您保持一致嗎？買方代理協議會及時成為新標準嗎？

Partly, yes. I mean that's already happened in markets like the D.C. area market in Seattle. It's required for buyers to sign a buyers agency agreement. I think some of this is about legal and regulatory compliance. Some of it is just an ethical mandate that people should not hire a buyer's agent without realizing it. They should know what that buyer's agent charges and they should know what services are entailed. They should know when they're committed. And so this is good salesmanship, but it's also just an above-board way to treat a customer.

部分是的。我的意思是，這種情況已經在西雅圖華盛頓地區市場等市場發生了。買家需要簽署買家代理協議。我認為其中一些與法律和監管合規性有關。其中一些只是道德要求，即人們不應在沒有意識到的情況下僱用買方代理人。他們應該知道買方代理人的收費以及需要哪些服務。他們應該知道自己什麼時候會做出承諾。所以這是很好的推銷技巧，但這也是一種光明正大的對待客戶的方式。

Now the reason that I said partly is that we're also seeing some trends where more listing agents are selling homes directly to home buyers. So I think there is just going to be more consumer choice, John. In some cases, a consumer is explicitly going to decide that I want somebody on my side, that I want my own agent and other times the agent -- the listing agent, excuse me, will be the 1 handling both sides of the sale. The buyer is going to go directly to that listing agent. I don't think that's going to be the majority of cases, but I do think there's going to be clear consumer choices and more consumer power. That's great.

我之所以這麼說，部分原因是我們也看到了一些趨勢，即越來越多的上市代理商直接向購屋者出售房屋。所以我認為消費者會有更多的選擇，約翰。在某些情況下，消費者會明確決定我想要有人站在我這邊，我想要我自己的代理人，而其他時候代理人- 掛牌代理人，對不起，將是處理銷售雙方的第一人。買家將直接前往該上市代理。我認為這不會是大多數情況，但我確實認為將會有明確的消費者選擇和更多的消費者權力。那太棒了。

Yes. Makes a lot of sense. I'm surprised you didn't go in to plug for Redfin Direct. So maybe if you could talk about that and where that might have a spot in the new world.

是的。很有道理。我很驚訝你沒有插入 Redfin Direct。所以也許你可以談談這個以及它在新世界中可能佔有一席之地。

Man, I never missed an opportunity to give a plug. I was trying to be concise, but we've obviously built software that makes it easier for buyers to submit offers directly to Redfin listing agents because we wanted to support this capability for buyers to work without a buyer's agent. And the challenge that we've had when trying to scale that beyond Redfin listings is that many traditional listing agents do not welcome direct buyer contact. And I think that is changing because there is so much pressure on listing agents to support more consumer choice. And as that pressure mounts, the power of Redfin will be fully unleased, John. How is that for a plug?

夥計，我從來沒有錯過任何一個提供插頭的機會。我試圖簡潔扼要，但我們顯然已經建立了軟體，使買家可以更輕鬆地直接向 Redfin 上市代理提交報價，因為我們希望支援這種功能，讓買家無需買家代理即可工作。當我們試圖將其擴展到 Redfin 清單之外時，我們遇到的挑戰是許多傳統的清單代理商不歡迎直接與買家聯繫。我認為這種情況正在發生變化，因為上市代理商面臨巨大的壓力，需要支持更多的消費者選擇。隨著壓力的增加，Redfin 的力量將得到充分釋放，約翰。插頭怎麼樣？

Excellent. Good run down. If I could squeeze in maybe one more. The mortgage segment, obviously, you guys are doing great with the attach rates. You're doing as good as you can do with what the market is giving you. Obviously, eventually, we're going to see lower rates whenever that might be. I'm curious about where you guys are capacity-wise. Are you in a good spot loan officer wise? And then also -- are you -- is the business position where you can capitalize on refi as that comes back as well?

出色的。好跑下來。如果我可以再擠進去的話。顯然，在抵押貸款領域，你們在附加利率方面做得很好。你正在盡你所能地利用市場給你的東西。顯然，最終，無論何時，我們都會看到更低的利率。我很好奇你們的能力在哪裡。您是優秀的信貸員嗎？然後，您是否也可以利用再融資的業務地位，因為它也會回來？

We've been worried about being able to capitalize on refunds. So hopefully, we stay ahead of that. I think rates have to drop another 75 basis points before the refi opportunity becomes significant. But traditionally, Bay Equity was doing 1/3 to half of its business in refi, don't quite quote me on that, but I think it was something like that. And they do have capacity. They have capacity just because the whole lending industry has capacity. Most lenders are still anxious to do more business, but also because they just got a great recruiting proposition.

我們一直擔心能否利用退款。所以希望我們能保持領先。我認為利率必須再下降 75 個基點，再融資機會才會變得重要。但傳統上，Bay Equity 1/3 到一半的業務是在再融資上進行的，請不要完全引用我的話，但我認為是這樣的。他們確實有能力。他們有能力只是因為整個貸款行業有能力。大多數貸方仍然渴望開展更多業務，但也是因為他們剛剛獲得了很好的招聘建議。

There are so many lenders who have been working with Redfin agents who have joined Bay Equity because now they see that Redfin agents are not going to recommend that lender unless they have the full power of Redfin's one-stop shop. The economics are better. We can offer the consumer better value. The integration is better. So it's a more seamless experience. And so those lenders are under pressure to join Bay equity/Redfin instead of hanging their own shingle and that's made it just easy for us to add loan officer capacity when we need to. No easy but made it easier. Recruiting top talent is always hard, but made it easier.

有許多與加入 Bay Equity 的 Redfin 代理商合作的貸方，因為現在他們發現 Redfin 代理商不會推薦該貸方，除非他們擁有 Redfin 一站式商店的全部權力。經濟比較好。我們可以為消費者提供更好的價值。集成度比較好。所以這是一種更無縫的體驗。因此，這些貸方面臨著加入 Bay Equity/Redfin 的壓力，而不是掛起自己的牌子，這使得我們在需要時可以輕鬆地增加信貸員的能力。不容易，但讓它變得更容易。招募頂尖人才總是很困難，但它卻讓它變得更容易。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jay McCanless of Wedbush Securities.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Jay McCanless。

Just staying on mortgage for a second. I'm surprised that the level of revenue decline you're forecasting given you expect real estate services to show at least a small game. Maybe talk about the disconnect between those two?

只是暫時維持抵押貸款。鑑於您預計房地產服務至少會表現出一場小遊戲，我對您預測的收入下降水平感到驚訝。也許談談兩者之間的脫節？

Sure. Well, I do you think it's possible that we generate more revenue in the mortgage business. So that's one potential outcome here. Another thing, just to remember, is that there's a little bit of a timing difference in the recognition of revenue and real estate services, which we get at the time that the transaction closes versus mortgage where we book some of the revenue upfront. So the revenue in mortgage tends to be a little less volatile, and that's probably what you're seeing between the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2024. We are really encouraged with the attach rates we've seen in the first part of this year, going back to Glenn's earlier commentary. And so that has us quite optimistic as the year goes on.

當然。嗯，我認為我們有可能在抵押貸款業務中產生更多收入。這就是這裡的一個潛在結果。另一件需要記住的事情是，收入和房地產服務的確認存在一點時間上的差異，我們在交易結束時得到的收入和抵押貸款時我們提前預訂了一些收入。因此，抵押貸款收入的波動性往往較小，這可能是您在 2024 年第四季度到第一季之間看到的情況。我們對在本報告第一部分中看到的附加利率感到非常鼓舞。年，回到格倫早些時候的評論。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們非常樂觀。

Okay. And then the second question I had, could you potentially quantify how big the demand decline was from January to February.

好的。然後我的第二個問題是，您能否量化一月至二月的需求下降幅度有多大。

No, I don't think we can. And it's not just that we're being cagey about it. It's a seasonal business. There are so many factors. We kind of argued in preparing for this call, whether or not this January to February feels different than 2023's January to February and maybe sales are pulling through a little bit better. We can't tell if that's our sales execution or if the markets like that, there was a commentary in the prepared remarks about buyers just being more accustomed to rate volatility. They know what they're getting into. They're not as easily phased. So I don't know if we can prove it, but it just feels a little bit better than last year. And certainly, we're better prepared for it. We were starting to gear up last year, and now we feel like we're not going to be fooled again, and we're going to be more careful about it.

不，我認為我們不能。這不僅是因為我們對此保持謹慎。這是一個季節性的業務。有很多因素。在準備這次電話會議時，我們有點爭論，今年 1 月至 2 月是否與 2023 年 1 月至 2 月感覺有所不同，也許銷售情況會好一些。我們無法判斷這是否是我們的銷售執行，或者市場是否喜歡那樣，在準備好的評論中有評論稱買家只是更習慣於利率波動。他們知道自己將面臨什麼。它們並不那麼容易分階段進行。所以我不知道我們是否能證明這一點，但感覺比去年好一點。當然，我們已經做好了更好的準備。去年我們就開始做好準備，現在我們覺得我們不會再被愚弄了，我們會更加小心。

Got it. And then the last one I had, I think, Chris, you made this comment about mortgage rates being higher so far this year than what you guys were expecting. I guess, what is kind of the rents in-house expectations for mortgage rates this year, especially with a lot of economists calling for mortgage rates to dip in the back half of the year versus the front half.

知道了。然後我想，克里斯，你對我的最後一個評論說，今年迄今為止抵押貸款利率比你們預期的要高。我想，今年的租金內部對抵押貸款利率的預期是怎樣的，尤其是許多經濟學家呼籲抵押貸款利率在今年下半年相對於上半年下降。

That's very much what our economics team has been indicating is that they expect that rates will come down as the year goes on. And my commentary was really that rates did tick up in the first part of this year. And I think we're all watching now what the trajectory looks like over the next few months.

我們的經濟團隊一直在表明，他們預計利率將隨著時間的推移而下降。我的評論是，今年上半年利率確實有上升。我想我們現在都在關注未來幾個月的發展軌跡。

The next question comes from Nitin Bansal of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nitin Bansal。

This is Nitin on behalf of Curt Nagle. Can you throw some light on how volatile has been buyer demand related to rates over the past few months. January volumes look better, but have you seen any pullback with rates now at 7% and pricing not easing? And secondly, what is your view on home supply? And how did -- how much do you think it can improve (inaudible) still very rate locked.

我是尼廷，代表科特·內格爾。您能否透露過去幾個月與利率相關的買家需求的波動程度。 1 月份的銷量看起來更好，但您是否看到利率現在為 7% 並且定價沒有放鬆的情況下出現任何回調？其次，您對房屋供應有何看法？你認為它可以改善多少（聽不清楚）仍然非常鎖定。

Well, answer to your first question about volatility, the market is still very much driven by mortgage interest rates, but maybe 1 degree less than it was 6 to 9 months ago. Some people just put off their home buying plans for 6 months, for 9 months, for 12 months. And at some point, they have priced into all of their calculations, a mortgage rate of around 7%. And I think if rates keep going up, there's always a breaking point for different cohorts of homebuyers, but it's been slightly more elastic than it has been in the past. I used to feel like man, it would be just the tiniest tick up and people would say, no, (inaudible). And now it just feels that people are a little more hardy about it.

好吧，回答你關於波動性的第一個問題，市場仍然很大程度上受到抵押貸款利率的驅動，但可能比 6 到 9 個月前低了 1 度。有些人只是將購屋計畫推遲 6 個月、9 個月、12 個月。在某個時候，他們已經將抵押貸款利率計入了所有計算中，約為 7%。我認為，如果利率繼續上漲，不同的購屋者群體總會有一個轉折點，但它比過去更有彈性。我曾經覺得自己像個男人，這只是最微小的變化，人們會說，不，（聽不清楚）。現在感覺人們對此變得更加堅強了。

As for supply, that's going to be a long-term problem in the U.S. economy when you have this much mortgage interest rate volatility and you're guaranteeing people loans for 30 years, you're going to have a long-term problem with resale inventory that should ease a little bit every year. Again, you just have some powerful demographic forces. Boomers are holding on to their homes longer, millennials are waiting longer to buy a home, but that can't last forever. And so we do think that the supply problems are going to ease and also construction has gotten a little better, too.

至於供應，這將成為美國經濟的長期問題。當抵押貸款利率波動如此之大，並且為人們提供 30 年貸款擔保時，轉售將面臨長期問題庫存每年都會減少一點。再說一次，你只是擁有一些強大的人口力量。嬰兒潮世代持有房屋的時間更長，千禧世代等待買房的時間更長，但這不會永遠持續下去。因此，我們確實認為供應問題將會緩解，而且建設也會有所改善。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian of Citigroup.

（操作員指令）我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

Given how important this is for you guys. I just want to expand a little bit more on the agent model, a, on the push to move more of the lower profitability transactions to partners clearly continuing to step into that? How is that going relative to your expectations? Is that something you expect to do more of? And then -- just any more incremental color on Redfin Next? And what are some of the signals that you're looking for? You talked about going into 1/3 of markets, can that potentially become more. It looks like that's been more successful than you expected and it's been ramping quicker than expected.

鑑於這對你們來說有多重要。我只是想進一步擴展代理模式，a，推動將更多利潤較低的交易轉移給合作夥伴，顯然會繼續涉足這一領域？與您的期望相比，情況如何？這是您期望做更多的事情嗎？然後——Redfin Next 上還有更多增量顏色嗎？您正在尋找哪些訊號？您談到進入 1/3 的市場，是否有可能變得更多。看起來這比您預期的更成功，而且成長速度也比預期更快。

Well, first, on the push to partners, we do expect that to continue from year-to-year, from month to month, it's subject to the exingencies of the housing market. So once we've hired a certain number of agents, we're going to keep them busy taking more demand from partners or sending demand to partners. But mostly, we've been pretty careful about adding brokerage headcount because of this long-term shift to partners and this push to have a more digital margin at Redfin, which I think you see across the entire print. There's just higher gross margins in real estate services and across the business overall.

嗯，首先，在推動合作夥伴方面，我們確實預期這種情況會逐年、逐月持續下去，這取決於房地產市場的緊急情況。因此，一旦我們聘請了一定數量的代理商，我們就會讓他們忙於接受合作夥伴的更多需求或向合作夥伴發送需求。但最重要的是，我們在增加經紀人員數量方面一直非常謹慎，因為這種向合作夥伴的長期轉變，以及 Redfin 爭取更多數字利潤的努力，我想你在整個印刷品中都看到了這一點。只是房地產服務和整個業務的毛利率更高。

So that is the long-term trend. There might be some volatility in the mix between partners and employees from month-to-month, but mostly it's going in one direction. And as for next, maybe the only commentary that we haven't provided is about how eager the other markets are for it. There are plenty of sales initiatives that Redfin headquarters voice on different markets. And sales leaders are often quite conservative. They want to keep doing what they've been doing. They don't like as much change. That is not the case with Redfin Next. I have never seen so many employees lined up saying please cut my salary, so I can have a higher bonus.

所以這是長期趨勢。每個月合作夥伴和員工之間的組合可能會出現一些波動，但大多數情況都是朝著一個方向發展。至於接下來，也許我們唯一沒有提供的評論是其他市場對此有多渴望。 Redfin 總部針對不同市場推出了大量銷售措施。銷售領導者往往相當保守。他們想繼續做他們一直在做的事情。他們不喜歡太多的變化。 Redfin Next 的情況並非如此。我從來沒有見過這麼多員工排隊說請減薪，這樣我就可以得到更高的獎金。

The first run for Next, where you have a 2-week payroll run, somebody got a $90,000 or $91,000 commission check. I don't know that we've ever had a check like that in January, and it was just for 2 weeks. The word spreads like wildfire, markets are clamoring for it. And the only reason that we're not rolling it out even faster is we just don't want to screw it up. Right now, we've got one initiative, sign-and-save, which trades commission refunds for a buyer's agency agreement that we're scaling across the company in 2024, we think that's going to significantly lift close rates.

Next 的第一次運行，為期兩週的薪資運行，有人得到了 90,000 美元或 91,000 美元的佣金支票。我不知道我們在一月有過這樣的支票，而且只有兩週。這個消息不脛而走，市場對此呼聲很高。我們沒有更快地推出它的唯一原因是我們不想搞砸。目前，我們有一項舉措，即簽署並保存，以佣金退款換取買方代理協議，我們將在 2024 年在整個公司範圍內推廣該協議，我們認為這將顯著提高成交率。

We'll expand Next somewhat more cautiously just because recruiting and change management for the existing employees is a lift, but every single market manager, it seems like most of our agents are clamoring for it. And I've talked to a bunch of the agents we are recruiting. And it's just an amazing level of talent. It's really, really exciting. If you pair kind of the best brokerage website with the best agents, you're going to take the world by storm. So early days, but we feel pretty excited about it. We feel as good as we could after just 30, 40 days of doing it in 2024.

我們將更加謹慎地擴展下一步，因為現有員工的招募和變更管理是一種提升，但每位市場經理，似乎我們的大多數代理商都在呼籲這樣做。我已經和我們正在招募的一些代理商進行了交談。這真是令人驚嘆的天賦。這真的非常非常令人興奮。如果您將最好的經紀網站與最好的代理商結合起來，您將席捲整個世界。雖然還很早，但我們對此感到非常興奮。 2024 年，我們只花了 30、40 天的時間就感覺很好。

A follow-up, I guess, on the point on traffic. I guess, one of the biggest, let's say, the bay areas right now and among investors is maybe a little bit of what's going on in the competitive environment, a bit of a step-up in marketing spend to say a lease from a key competitor and lots of discussion debate on how all that might play out? And from your seat, if you guys are kind of seeing this play out what you think about it, what your strategy is and how you kind of plan to I don't know if rebut against that is the right way to think about it, but just plan against some of what you're seeing there on the competitive side.

我想，這是關於交通問題的後續行動。我想，目前灣區和投資者中最大的問題之一可能是競爭環境中發生的一些事情，行銷支出的增加，例如從關鍵的租賃中競爭對手和許多討論都在爭論這一切可能會如何進行？在你們的座位上，如果你們看到了你們的想法，你們的策略是什麼以及你們的計劃如何，我不知道反駁這是否是正確的思考方式，但只是根據你們在競爭方面看到的一些情況來計劃。

I don't want to be cocky about this. To be honest, I spent half the Super Bowl in the bathroom or upstairs making nachos because I didn't want to see these competitor ads. But according to the early reports from similar web and other sites to compare traffic. We still got more traffic on Super Bowl Sunday than the company promising to spend zillions of dollars. And our basic thesis is that the best product wins, if you build a better mousetrap, the world beats a path to your door, and we really believe in the quality of our website. I think there was sort of this 1999.com thesis that advertising dollars was the way to win. But mostly, I thought we had left that behind.

我不想為此驕傲自大。老實說，超級盃的一半時間我都在浴室或樓上做玉米片，因為我不想看到這些競爭對手的廣告。但根據早期的報告，來自類似網站和其他網站的流量進行比較。我們在超級盃週日獲得的流量仍然比公司承諾花費數十億美元的流量還要多。我們的基本論點是，最好的產品會獲勝，如果你建造了一個更好的捕鼠器，世界就會向你敞開大門，我們真的相信我們網站的品質。我認為 1999.com 有這樣一個論點：廣告收入是獲勝之道。但最重要的是，我認為我們已經把它拋在後面了。

And I know that when you get into some kind of advertising war, it depresses margins across the segment, it changes the competitive dynamic. We're certainly aware that there are better capitalized competitors out there. But things have gone better than we could have hoped. I've been really worried about this last year. In June and July, we just told our traffic team. Here it comes. It's coming on strong. It's going to last a long time, keep your head down and keep working. And we weren't sure what the effect would be. But now we know. We've taken a punch, and we're still standing and actually, we're still growing. So we feel pretty good about it.

我知道，當你陷入某種廣告戰時，它會壓低整個細分市場的利潤，它會改變競爭動態。我們當然知道還有資本較雄厚的競爭對手。但事情進展得比我們預期的還要好。去年我一直很擔心這個問題。六月和七月，我們剛剛告訴我們的交通團隊。它來了。它來勢強勁。這會持續很長時間，低下頭繼續工作。我們不確定效果會如何。但現在我們知道了。我們受到了打擊，但我們仍然屹立不倒，實際上，我們仍然在成長。所以我們對此感覺很好。

All right. That's really helpful. I agree with the quality of the website.

好的。這真的很有幫助。我同意該網站的品質。

Chris, do you have anything to add on that one?

克里斯，你對此還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I don't.

我不。

Sorry, Ygal, keep going.

對不起，Ygal，繼續吧。

No, that's it. I agree with the quality of the website. That's helpful comment.

不，就是這樣。我同意該網站的品質。這是有用的評論。

Yes. Well, I think that's all the questions. As always, we just wanted to say how much we appreciate the analyst community for following our daily moves. If you have further questions, Chris and Meg will handle them one-on-one with you, but here's to a great 2024. Let's go get them.

是的。嗯，我想這就是所有問題。像往常一樣，我們只是想說，我們非常感謝分析師社群關注我們的日常動向。如果您還有其他問題，Chris 和 Meg 將與您一對一地解答，並祝您 2024 年一切順利。讓我們去解答吧。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event. Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。感謝您的出席，您現在可以斷開線路了。