Redfin Corp (RDFN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the Redfin Corporation second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Our host for today's call is Meg Nunnally, Head of Investor Relations.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的主持人是投資人關係主管 Meg Nunnally。

(Operator Instructions) I would like to now turn the call over to your host. Ms. Nunnally, you may begin.

（操作員說明）我現在想將通話轉給您的主持人。納納利女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the second quarter ended June 30, 2024. I'm Meg Nunally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的第二季財務業績電話會議。我是梅格‧納納利 (Meg Nunally)，Redfin 投資人關係主管。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長格倫凱爾曼 (Glenn Kelman)；和我們的財務長克里斯尼爾森。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天的電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們對這些前瞻性陳述的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會產生重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com, for more information related related to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and related reconciliation. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against continuing operations the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務表現時提出非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站Investors.redfin.com 上獲取，以了解與我們的非GAAP 指標相關的更多信息，包括最直接可比的GAAP 財務指標和相關調節表。除非另有說明，本次電話會議期間進行的所有比較均與去年同期的持續經營業務進行比較。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call. And a full transcript and audio replay will be also available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束時在我們的網站上提供準備好的評論副本。電話會議後不久也將提供完整的文字記錄和音訊重播。

With us, I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

和我們一起，我會把電話轉給格倫。

Thanks, Meg. And hi, everyone. Redfin’s second-quarter earnings were at or near the top of the range we discussed in our last call, setting us up to be roughly adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the full year. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was breakeven, when we had said it would be between a $4 million loss and a $2 million gain.

謝謝，梅格。大家好。Redfin 在第二季度收益達到或接近我們在上次電話會議中討論的範圍的頂部，使我們能夠實現全年大致調整後的 EBITDA 盈虧平衡。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 是損益兩平的，當時我們曾說過虧損 400 萬美元到獲利 200 萬美元之間。

Real estate services revenue was $188 million, compared to guidance of $180 million to $188 million. The share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents increased, from 0.75% in the second quarter of 2023 to 0.77% in the second quarter of 2024, our first year-over-year share gain in nearly two years.

房地產服務收入為 1.88 億美元，而指導值為 1.80 億至 1.88 億美元。由我們自己的經紀人代理以及透過推薦給我們的合作夥伴經紀人代理的房屋銷售份額從2023 年第二季度的0.75% 增加到2024 年第二季度的0.77%，這是我們近兩年來首次同比份額增長年。

We expect these gains to continue in the third quarter, largely on the strength of Redfin Next. The plan to pay agents entirely on commissions that four California markets tested in January 2024. Entering 2025, we expect Next to be Redfin-wide. For the first time in years, we have a plausible basis for accelerations in brokerage market share, but being the best at monetizing for-sale housing demand is only one half of our strategy.

我們預計這些成長將在第三季繼續，這主要得益於 Redfin Next 的實力。該計劃完全按照加州四個市場在 2024 年 1 月測試的佣金支付代理商。進入 2025 年，我們預計 Next 將涵蓋整個 Redfin。多年來，我們第一次為經紀市場份額的加速提供了合理的基礎，但成為最擅長將待售住房需求貨幣化只是我們策略的一半。

The other is broadening our online guidance, excuse me, our online audience to include people looking for a rental home. To focus our resources on growing our rentals marketplace, Redfin began integrating Rent in January 2024, so that both businesses draw on the same human resources experts, finance system and cloud software. As a result, Rent’s second-quarter operating expenses fell 19% year over year, with a nearly identical marketing budget.

另一個是擴大我們的線上指導，對不起，我們的線上受眾包括正在尋找出租房屋的人。為了集中資源發展租賃市場，Redfin 於 2024 年 1 月開始整合 Rent，以便兩家企業都能利用相同的人力資源專家、財務系統和雲端軟體。因此，Rent 的第二季營運費用年減 19%，而行銷預算幾乎相同。

This restructuring of rent caps a series of seismic changes that began just as we tipped into the downturn. In 2022, we ditched our own loan-origination system and closed our mortgage business in favor of buying one of our customers’ favorite lenders, Bay Equity. In 2023, we closed our iBuying business, RedfinNow, and invested in digital businesses that immediately began contributing significant profits.

這種租金重組限制了在我們陷入經濟低迷之際開始的一系列劇烈變化。2022 年，我們放棄了自己的貸款發放系統，並關閉了抵押貸款業務，轉而購買了我們客戶最喜歡的貸款機構之一 Bay Equity。2023 年，我們關閉了 iBuying 業務 RedfinNow，並投資於數位業務，這些業務立即開始貢獻可觀的利潤。

And now in 2024, with the integration of rent and the shift to a salesforce paid entirely on commissions, Redfin is more efficient, resilient and ready to scale.

現在到了 2024 年，隨著租金的整合以及向完全靠佣金支付的銷售人員的轉變，Redfin 變得更加高效、有彈性並準備好擴展。

Already, profits are better. From the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024. Sales of existing US homes fell 3%, but Redfin revenues increased 6%, and our profits improved by more than $40 million. As our restructuring drives more rentals traffic and better brokerage service, we expect revenue growth to accelerate with most of that growth falling to the bottom line. When the housing market starts to recover, we’ll do even better.

利潤已經更好了。2023年上半年至2024年上半年。美國現有房屋銷量下降了 3%，但 Redfin 收入成長了 6%，我們的利潤增加了超過 4,000 萬美元。隨著我們的重組推動更多的租賃流量和更好的經紀服務，我們預計收入成長將加速，其中大部分成長將回落至利潤。當房地產市場開始復甦時，我們會做得更好。

Now let’s dive into our detailed business review, which starts, as it always does, with the network of websites that are our primary source of customers. We keep finding new applications for artificial intelligence to determine which photo of an apartment to show first, and to let homeowners imagine how to redecorate their place. We’ve also developed a new self-service tool for the owner of a rental property to post her listing on redfin.com, which will reach the entire US in September.

現在讓我們深入了解我們詳細的業務審查，一如既往，我們首先從作為我們主要客戶來源的網站網路開始。我們不斷尋找人工智慧的新應用，以確定首先顯示公寓的哪張照片，並讓房主想像如何重新裝修他們的房子。我們還開發了一種新的自助服務工具，供出租房產的業主在 redfin.com 上發布其列表，該工具將於 9 月覆蓋整個美國。

Building a better mousetrap has kept bringing more people to our door. According to Comscore, second quarter visitors to redfin.com grew 4% year over year, faster than both realtor.com and zillow.com. This year, we’ve competed effectively for traffic even as our largest online competitors have been able to quintuple our mass media advertising budget. When consumer interest in home buying rises from its current low, we’ll hit back with larger ad campaigns of our own.

製作更好的捕鼠器不斷吸引更多的人來到我們家門口。Comscore 的數據顯示，第二季 redfin.com 的訪問量年增 4%，增速高於 realtor.com 和 zillow.com。今年，我們在流量方面進行了有效的競爭，儘管我們最大的線上競爭對手已經能夠將我們的大眾媒體廣告預算增加五倍。當消費者對購屋的興趣從目前的低點回升時，我們將透過我們自己的更大規模的廣告活動進行反擊。

Though redfin.com has drawn visitors from competitors, our 2024 share gains have mostly come from sales execution. In the four California markets that piloted Redfin Next, first half share increased by 6 basis points year over year. For the customers that come from redfin.com, Next agents close more sales but at roughly the same margin as our salaried agents.

儘管 redfin.com 吸引了競爭對手的訪客，但我們 2024 年的份額成長主要來自銷售執行。在試行 Redfin Next 的四個加州市場中，上半年份額年增 6 個基點。對於來自 redfin.com 的客戶，Next 代理商完成了更多銷售，但利潤率與我們的受薪代理商大致相同。

Rolling out Next across 2024 is lowering second, and now, third quarter real estate services margins due to one-time transition pay for Redfin agents losing their salaries. The increasing variability of our agents’ income will also dampen the seasonality of our margins. Next agents can earn more than before in busy summer months and less than before in the winter. Getting similar full-year margins with less seasonal volatility should make Redfin easier to run.

由於 Redfin 代理商失去薪資的一次性過渡費，在 2024 年推出 Next 會降低第二季和現在第三季的房地產服務利潤率。我們代理商收入的不斷增加的波動性也將削弱我們利潤的季節性。接下來的代理商可以在繁忙的夏季賺取比以前更多的收入，而在冬季則賺取比以前更少的收入。獲得類似的全年利潤率和較小的季節性波動應該會讓 Redfin 更容易運作。

The capacity that Next has given us to hire more and better agents with less financial risk has been why we could become more disciplined about requiring a lead agent to host the first meeting with a home buyer in the all-you-can-meet program we launched broadly this spring.

Next 讓我們能夠以更少的財務風險聘請更多、更好的經紀人，這就是為什麼我們可以更加嚴格地要求首席經紀人在我們的「無限見面」計劃中主持與購房者的第一次會議。

In years past, Redfin asked the contractors we hired for short-notice property access to handle up to 40% of our customers’ first tours. Our lead agents make the Redfin case far better than these contractors. Meeting every new customer has, in turn, been a prerequisite for our sign-and-save program, also launched widely this spring, in which the lead agent asks the home-buyer for a commitment to that agent, in exchange for lowering our commission.

在過去的幾年裡，Redfin 要求我們僱用的臨時通行承包商能夠處理多達 40% 的客戶首次參觀。我們的主要代理商使 Redfin 案例比這些承包商好得多。反過來，與每位新客戶會面也是我們「簽約並保存」計劃的先決條件，該計劃也在今年春天廣泛推出，在該計劃中，首席代理人要求購房者對該代理人做出承諾，以換取降低我們的佣金。

Nearly half our sales now come from customers who signed a Redfin contract weeks or months before bidding on a home. Early data on customer engagement indicates that All You Can Meet and Sign and Save have lifted home-buyer close rate for the first time since 2020, but the gain would be larger if we had more agents.

現在，我們近一半的銷售額來自在競標房屋前幾週或幾個月簽署 Redfin 合約的客戶。客戶參與度的早期數據表明，All You Can Meet 和 Sign and Save 自 2020 年以來首次提高了購屋者的成交率，但如果我們有更多的代理商，收益會更大。

We’ve hired more than 200 top-producers over the last six months. Over the next nine months, our lead-agent census is likely to keep increasing, but without the capital risk of salaried agents. This month, Next will be how we pay agents in markets that accounted for 74% of 2023 revenue, up from 17% in January and 30% in May.

在過去 6 個月裡，我們僱用了 200 多名頂級製作人。在接下來的九個月裡，我們的主要代理商人口普查可能會繼續增加，但不會有受薪代理商的資本風險。本月，我們將向佔 2023 年收入 74% 的市場中的代理商付款，高於 1 月的 17% 和 5 月的 30%。

Changes mandated by the National Association of Realtors' March 15 settlement of a class-action lawsuit, which must be complete by August 17, may help with recruiting, by encouraging more agents to consider a brokerage built to compete on price. In the handful of markets where the local Multiple Listing Service has already stopped showing the commission offered to a buyer’s agent for a listing, agents are calling one another to find out what the seller’s willing to pay.

全國房地產經紀人協會3 月15 日達成的一項集體訴訟和解協議（必須在8 月17 日之前完成）所要求的變更可能會鼓勵更多的經紀人考慮建立以價格競爭為目的的經紀公司，從而有助於招募人才。在少數市場，當地的多重掛牌服務已經停止顯示向買方代理人提供的掛牌佣金，代理人互相打電話詢問賣方願意支付的費用。

The answer is usually that the amount is negotiable. Few listings are offering a fixed percentage to the buyer’s agent. Negotiations have been straightforward, at least for now, first because many sellers who listed their homes before the rules changed already expected to pay a fixed-percentage commission. A second reason is that the market began shifting in buyers’ favor as the rules changed, leaving many sellers glad to get any offer before the home-buying season ends.

答案通常是金額可以協商。很少有房源向買方代理人提供固定的百分比。談判一直很簡單，至少目前如此，首先是因為許多在規則改變之前掛牌出售房屋的賣家已經預計將支付固定百分比的佣金。第二個原因是，隨著規則的改變，市場開始轉向對買家有利的方向，這使得許多賣家很高興在購房季節結束之前收到任何報價。

Our experiments with the sign-and-save program beginning in late 2023 have already prepared us to disclose our fees from the first tour. And we’ve been an outlier among industry leaders in believing that the reforms could meaningfully lower fees. Like nearly every real estate business, we’ll make less on each sale if fees go down, but we may be the only large-scale broker eager to offset that with more sales at lower prices.

我們從 2023 年底開始對「即簽即存」計畫進行的實驗已經準備好揭露第一次巡演的費用。我們一直是行業領導者中的異類，我們相信改革可以有效降低費用。與幾乎所有房地產企業一樣，如果費用下降，我們每次銷售的收入都會減少，但我們可能是唯一一家渴望以更低的價格增加銷售來抵消這一影響的大型經紀人。

In the event home-buyers become as value-oriented as sellers already are, Redfin will use more-aggressive sign-and-save pricing, and more direct sales of a listing to the buyer, to gain share.

如果購屋者變得像賣家一樣以價值為導向，Redfin 將採用更積極的「簽約後保存」定價，以及更直接地向買家出售房源，以贏得份額。

Our ancillary businesses are one reason we can make money from brokerage customers at a lower price. Bay Equity improved adjusted EBITDA from a $2.2 million loss in the second quarter of 2023 to a $1.1 million profit in the second quarter of 2024.

我們的輔助業務是我們能夠以較低的價格從經紀客戶那裡賺錢的原因之一。Bay Equity 將調整後 EBITDA 從 2023 年第二季的 220 萬美元虧損改善為 2024 年第二季的 110 萬美元利潤。

Of the brokerage customers who financed their second-quarter home purchase, 28% used Bay Equity, the same as in the first quarter, but up from 24% in the second quarter of last year. To drive this number even higher, we’re investing more in our systems for introducing brokerage customers to our loan officers.

在第二季購屋融資的經紀客戶中，有 28% 使用 Bay Equity，與第一季相同，但高於去年第二季的 24%。為了進一步提高這個數字，我們對系統進行了更多投資，以將經紀客戶介紹給我們的信貸員。

We rarely talk about our title business, Title Forward, which is part of our other segment. That segment also includes the money we earn from display ads and our mortgage marketplace for routing website visitors directly to a lender. But Title Forward’s performance has been extraordinary, with second quarter attach rates above 60%, and year-over-year revenue growth above 50%. We’ve said that Title Forward’s long-term gross margin goal was 20%, but in the second quarter it was greater than 30%.

我們很少談論我們的產權業務，產權轉發，它是我們其他部門的一部分。該部分還包括我們從展示廣告和抵押市場中賺取的收入，這些市場用於將網站訪客直接引導至貸方。但 Title Forward 的業績非常出色，第二季附加率超過 60%，營收年增超過 50%。我們說過，Title Forward 的長期毛利率目標是 20%，但第二季超過了 30%。

Before turning to the state of the housing market, let’s discuss our Rentals segment, which improved adjusted EBITDA from a $9 million loss in the second quarter of 2023 to a $1 million profit in the second quarter of 2024, on 12% revenue growth. We expect growth to remain muted through the second half of 2024, but then to increase on the strength of significant investments being made now in traffic.

在討論房屋市場狀況之前，我們先討論我們的租賃部門，該部門調整後的EBITDA 從2023 年第二季度的900 萬美元虧損改善到2024 年第二季度的100 萬美元利潤，收入增長了12 %生長。我們預計到 2024 年下半年，成長將保持溫和，但隨後將因目前在交通領域的重大投資而有所成長。

We’ve hired a new president, Damon Joshua, to run Rent; previously he worked for 12 years at MarketSource, leading a global team responsible for billions in revenue. When we get more traffic, Damon will get more sales.

我們聘請了一位新總裁 Damon Joshua 來管理 Rent；此前，他在 MarketSource 工作了 12 年，領導一個負責數十億收入的全球團隊。當我們獲得更多流量時，達蒙就會獲得更多銷售。

In the meantime, Rent will still make money. After losing $31 million in 2022 and $15 million in 2023, Rent this year will generate its first full year adjusted-EBITDA profit as a Redfin business unit.

與此同時，Rent 仍然會賺錢。在 2022 年虧損 3,100 萬美元、2023 年虧損 1,500 萬美元之後，Rent 今年將作為 Redfin 業務部門首次實現全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤。

We’ve been glad the rentals segment has reduced our dependence on the for-sale market, because the for-sale market had, at least until last week, been terrible. Over the four weeks ending July 28, industry-wide pending sales fell 5.3% year over year, and the decline had been widening even as rates began to ease. Inventory is rising but 30% below pre-pandemic levels. Affordability is near a 40-year low.

我們很高興租賃部門減少了我們對待售市場的依賴，因為至少直到上週，待售市場一直很糟糕。截至 7 月 28 日的四個星期內，全行業待售銷售額年減 5.3%，儘管利率開始放緩，但降幅仍在擴大。庫存正在增加，但比大流行前的水平低 30%。負擔能力接近 40 年來的最低點。

Yet as we already noted, the market is significantly shifting in buyers’ favor. 22% of active listings have dropped their price, the highest percentage since we began tracking this number in 2012. 36% of listings accepted an offer within two weeks of their debut, down from 41% the year prior.

然而，正如我們已經指出的，市場正在顯著轉向對買家有利的方向。 22% 的活躍掛牌房源已經降價，這是我們自 2012 年開始追蹤這一數字以來的最高比例。

Interest rate declines haven’t so far increased competition for listings. From April 30 to July 24, mortgage interest rates fell from about 7.5% to about 6.9%, with almost no reaction from homebuyers. Industry-wide mortgage-purchase applications have been mostly below last year’s levels. It has been the first time in years that a major interest-rate drop had no impact on home-buying demand.

到目前為止，利率下降並未加劇上市競爭。從4月30日到7月24日，抵押貸款利率從約7.5%降至約6.9%，但購屋者幾乎沒有任何反應。全行業抵押貸款購買申請大多低於去年的水平。這是多年來首次大幅降息對購屋需求沒有產生影響。

Then from July 24 to yesterday, rates dropped below 6.35%, and finally the number of redfin.com home-buyer inquiries increased last weekend over the prior two weekends. But that gain was still only modest, and, among the customers already engaged with our agents, offer-writing activity actually declined compared to the prior two weekends.

然後從7月24日到昨天，利率跌破了6.35%，最後上週末redfin.com購屋者詢問的數量比前兩個週末有所增加。但這種成長仍然有限，而且在已經與我們的代理商合作的客戶中，與前兩個週末相比，報價活動實際上有所下降。

Agents we polled on Monday about the low number of offers cited broadening economic anxieties, the distraction of a presidential election, and homebuyers’ growing belief that time is on their side. In a shifting market, sellers often get stuck on the asking price from last month, while buyers imagine they can get an even better deal next month.

我們週一對代理商進行的調查顯示，出價數量偏低是由於經濟焦慮加劇、總統選舉的干擾以及購房者越來越相信時間站在他們這一邊。在瞬息萬變的市場中，賣家常常陷入上個月的要價，而買家則認為下個月可以獲得更好的交易。

If rates keep falling, US home sales should increase. We expect rates will stay low through the winter and into next spring, which should lead to a much stronger housing market in 2025. I believe the housing market is about to get better, and that Redfin is also going to take share.

如果利率繼續下降，美國房屋銷售應該會增加。我們預計整個冬季和明年春季利率將保持在較低水平，這將導致 2025 年房地產市場更加強勁。我相信房地產市場即將好轉，Redfin 也會分一杯羹。

Take it away Chris.

把它拿走克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. Second-quarter revenue was $295 million, up 7% from a year ago. This marks our second straight quarter of organic revenue growth. At the same time, gross profit of $110 million was up 9% year over year, and total gross margin expanded from 36% to 37%.

謝謝，格倫。第二季營收為 2.95 億美元，年增 7%。這標誌著我們連續第二季實現有機收入成長。同時，毛利1.1億美元，較去年成長9%，總毛利率從36%擴大至37%。

Total operating expenses were $139 million, down $10 million year over year. The decrease was primarily attributable to a $5 million decrease in amortization expense, as the intangible technology assets acquired with Rent completed their amortization; a $5 million decrease in restructuring costs, and a $4 million decrease in personnel costs. These reductions were partially offset by an $8 million increase in marketing media and production expenses.

總營運費用為 1.39 億美元，年減 1,000 萬美元。減少的主要原因是攤銷費用減少了 500 萬美元，因為透過 Rent 收購的無形技術資產完成了攤銷；重組成本減少 500 萬美元，人員成本減少 400 萬美元。這些減少被行銷媒體和製作費用增加 800 萬美元部分抵消。

Our adjusted EBITDA was flat, up from a loss of $7 million in the prior year. We continue to make steady progress towards positive adjusted EBITDA. Our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA loss stands at $33 million today, compared to a loss of $123 million one year ago. As Glenn said, we expect to be roughly adjusted-EBITDA break-even for the full year.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 持平，高於前一年 700 萬美元的虧損。我們繼續穩步推進調整後的正 EBITDA。目前，我們過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 3,300 萬美元，而一年前虧損為 1.23 億美元。正如格倫所說，我們預計全年將大致調整為 EBITDA 損益兩平。

Since our May earnings call, housing market conditions have worsened, and there is uncertainty around how quickly consumers will respond to lower mortgage interest rates and the larger macroeconomic backdrop. We’ll continue to make progress on everything we can control, and keep driving for profits.

自從我們五月的財報電話會議以來，房地產市場狀況已經惡化，消費者對較低抵押貸款利率和更大宏觀經濟背景的反應速度存在不確定性。我們將繼續在我們所能控制的一切方面取得進展，並繼續追求利潤。

We’ve been growing our digital businesses and rolling out Redfin Next, which makes agent compensation more variable and reduces expenses in seasonally slower months. As a result, we expect to add meaningful profits in both the third and fourth quarters.

我們一直在發展數位業務並推出 Redfin Next，這使得代理商薪酬更具可變性，並減少了季節性淡季月份的費用。因此，我們預計第三季和第四季都會增加可觀的利潤。

Turning back to our second-quarter results, net loss was $28 million, compared to a net loss from continuing operations of $27 million in the prior year. This was at the top end of our $28 million to $34 million loss guidance range. Net loss included a $6 million gain on extinguishment of notes that was not contemplated at the time of guidance.

回到我們第二季的業績，淨虧損為 2,800 萬美元，而上一年持續經營業務淨虧損為 2,700 萬美元。這是我們 2800 萬至 3400 萬美元損失指導範圍的上限。淨虧損包括因票據註銷而產生的 600 萬美元收益，該收益在發布指導時並未考慮在內。

Our adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was flat, which was in line with our guidance range of negative $4 million to positive $2 million.

我們來自持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 持平，這符合我們負 400 萬美元至正 200 萬美元的指導範圍。

Diluted loss per share from continuing operations attributable to common stock was $0.23, compared with $0.25 one year ago.

普通股持續經營帶來的稀釋每股虧損為 0.23 美元，而一年前為 0.25 美元。

Now turning to our segment results, real estate services generated $188 million in revenue, up 4% year over year. Brokerage revenue, or revenue from home sales closed by our own agents, was up 5%, on a 3% increase in brokerage transactions and a 1% increase in brokerage revenue per transaction.

現在來看我們的分部業績，房地產服務產生了 1.88 億美元的收入，年增 4%。經紀收入（即我們自己的代理商完成的房屋銷售收入）增加了 5%，其中經紀交易增加了 3%，每筆交易的經紀收入增加了 1%。

Revenue from our partners decreased 11%, on a 14% decrease in transactions offset by a 4% increase in partner revenue per transaction.

來自合作夥伴的收入下降了 11%，交易量減少了 14%，但合作夥伴每筆交易收入增加了 4%。

Real estate services gross margin was 28.6%, down 250 basis points year over year. This was primarily driven by a 330 basis point increase in personnel costs and transaction bonuses, partially offset by a 200 basis point decrease in home-touring and field expenses, as we have eliminated compensation for home-touring and field expenses and replaced it with transaction bonuses for some employee agents. In addition, there was a 120 basis point increase in home improvement costs incurred on behalf of home sellers.

房地產服務毛利率為28.6%，年減250個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金增加了 330 個基點，部分被家庭巡演和現場費用減少 200 個基點所抵消，因為我們取消了家庭巡演和現場費用的補償並用交易取代了它一些僱員代理人的獎金。此外，房屋賣家的房屋裝修成本增加了 120 個基點。

Total net loss for real estate services was $18 million, compared to a net loss of $9 million in the prior year, and our adjusted EBITDA loss was $4 million, down from positive $9 million in the prior year. The decrease was attributable to lower gross margin and higher marketing expenses.

房地產服務的總淨虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而前一年的淨虧損為 900 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 400 萬美元，低於前一年的正 900 萬美元。下降的原因是毛利率下降和行銷費用增加。

Our rentals segment posted its seventh straight quarter of growth, with revenue of $51 million and growth of 12%. Rentals gross margin was 77.2% compared to 77.0% a year ago. Total net loss for rentals was $7 million, up from a net loss of $23 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $1 million, marking the rentals segment’s fourth straight quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

我們的租賃業務連續第七個季度實現成長，營收達 5,100 萬美元，成長 12%。租賃毛利率為 77.2%，而去年同期為 77.0%。租金淨虧損總額為 700 萬美元，高於前一年的淨虧損 2,300 萬美元。第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 100 萬美元，標誌著租賃部門連續第四個季度調整後 EBITDA 為正值。

Our mortgage segment generated $40 million in revenue, up 5% year over year. This result was within our guidance range of $39 million to $42 million. Mortgage gross margin was 19.0%, up from 10.8% a year ago.

我們的抵押貸款部門產生了 4000 萬美元的收入，年增 5%。這一結果在我們 3900 萬至 4200 萬美元的指導範圍內。房貸毛利率為 19.0%，高於一年前的 10.8%。

Net loss for mortgage was nil, compared to a loss of $4 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was positive $1 million, up from a loss of $2 million in the prior year.

抵押貸款淨損失為零，而上一年損失為 400 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 為正 100 萬美元，高於前一年的虧損 200 萬美元。

Our other segment generated revenue of $17 million, compared to $11 million in the prior year, as both our title and digital revenue businesses grew. Other segment gross margin was 54.0%, up from 44.1% a year ago. Total net income was $7 million compared to $3 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA was $8 million compared to $4 million in the prior year.

隨著我們的遊戲和數位收入業務的成長，我們的其他部門產生了 1700 萬美元的收入，而前一年為 1100 萬美元。其他分部毛利率為 54.0%，高於一年前的 44.1%。總淨利潤為 700 萬美元，上一年為 300 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 800 萬美元，前一年為 400 萬美元。

Now turning to our consolidated financial expectations for the third quarter of 2024. Total revenue is expected to be between $273 million and $285 million, representing year-over-year growth between 1% and 6% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

現在轉向我們對 2024 年第三季的綜合財務預期。總營收預計在 2.73 億美元至 2.85 億美元之間，較 2023 年第三季年增 1% 至 6%。

Included within total revenue are real estate services revenue between $171 million and $179 million, rentals revenue between $50 million and $51 million, mortgage revenue between $36 million and $39 million, and other revenue between $15 million and $16 million.

總收入包括1.71億美元至1.79億美元之間的房地產服務收入、5,000萬至5,100萬美元之間的租金收入、3,600萬至3,900萬美元之間的抵押貸款收入以及1,500萬至1,600萬美元之間的其他收入。

Total net loss is expected to be between $30 million and $22 million, compared to net loss of $19 million in the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $4 million and $12 million.

預計淨虧損總額將在 3,000 萬美元至 2,200 萬美元之間，而 2023 年第三季的淨虧損為 1,900 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 400 萬至 1,200 萬美元之間。

Now, let’s open the lines for your questions.

現在，讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）Jason Helfstein，奧本海默。

Thanks for taking the questions. I guess, two, how should we think about real estate gross margins once the majority of agents are under Redfin Next. And then just more broadly, just how should we think about long-term company EBITDA margins as you leverage real estate traffic across all the segments and then kind of under the Redfin Next model? That's question one.

感謝您提出問題。我想，第二，一旦大多數代理商都在 Redfin Next 之下，我們應該如何考慮房地產毛利率。更廣泛地說，當您利用所有細分市場的房地產流量以及在 Redfin Next 模型下的情況時，我們應該如何考慮長期公司 EBITDA 利潤率？這是問題一。

And then just a follow-up, Chris, you may have said in the comments, but the other EBITDA was the strain from title or from advertising. Thanks.

然後是後續行動，克里斯，你可能在評論中說過，但另一個 EBITDA 是來自標題或廣告的壓力。謝謝。

Why don't I take the first one, Chris, and you can take the second one?

為什麼我不拿第一個，克里斯，你可以拿第二個？

We think that long-term Next will have similar gross margins on sales sourced from redfin.com. There may be incremental sales that we wouldn't have gotten in past years as agents become more entrepreneurial and source their own business, but that should be incremental gross profit. Our focus is on the gross profit we can generate from sales sourced by redfin.com. So we expect gross profit to grow faster and we expect margins from redfin.com based business to be the same or better.

我們認為，從長遠來看，Next 將在來自 redfin.com 的銷售中獲得類似的毛利率。隨著代理商變得更具創業精神並尋找自己的業務，可能會出現過去幾年我們無法獲得的增量銷售，但這應該是增量毛利。我們的重點是我們可以從 redfin.com 的銷售中獲得的毛利。因此，我們預計毛利將成長更快，並且我們預計基於 redfin.com 的業務的利潤率將保持不變或更好。

There might be some pressure from the NAR settlement fees being lower, agents wanting better splits across the industry, but we think we can offset that by getting more efficient with support and management, a more entrepreneurial agent doesn't need to meet her manager every week. So there's some upside in our margins.

NAR 結算費用較低可能會帶來一些壓力，代理人希望在整個行業中得到更好的分配，但我們認為我們可以通過提高支持和管理效率來抵消這一壓力，更具創業精神的代理人不需要每次都與她的經理見面星期。所以我們的利潤率還有一些上升空間。

And looking more broadly than real estate services, we also think there's upside because the overall trajectory of the business is to get more digital. This is an issue that you've asked about before, Jason, and we think you've been right on the money.

從更廣泛的角度來看，除了房地產服務之外，我們還認為有好處，因為業務的整體軌跡是變得更加數位化。Jason，這是您之前問過的一個問題，我們認為您在金錢方面是正確的。

That, building our digital businesses, building our rentals marketplace, having that be a larger piece of the overall puzzle should improve the gross margins of the company. And then we're just running more efficiently. So with less fixed cost, our growth should drop more dollars to the bottom line. Obviously, we plan to become a significantly profitable company, and the way that we're going to do that is by growing while holding fixed costs steady and having gross margins move up over time.

建立我們的數位業務，建立我們的租賃市場，使其成為整體難題中更大的一部分，應該會提高公司的毛利率。然後我們就能更有效率地運作。因此，隨著固定成本的減少，我們的成長應該會降低更多的利潤。顯然，我們計劃成為一家盈利能力顯著的公司，而我們要實現這一目標的方法是在保持固定成本穩定的同時實現成長，並隨著時間的推移毛利率不斷上升。

Chris, do you want to take the second part?

克里斯，你想看第二部分嗎？

Sure. And then in terms of our other segment, this is a place we've seen strength all year, and it really is those two core components that you mentioned, Jason. So both the title business is delivering well. Plus we're getting more advertising revenue all the time from -- across the websites different inventory on the website and different capabilities that we've been able to put in front of advertisers. So both pieces are hitting really nicely right now.

當然。然後就我們的其他細分市場而言，這是我們全年都看到實力的地方，這確實是您提到的兩個核心組成部分，傑森。因此，這兩項產權業務都表現良好。另外，我們一直從網站上不同的庫存以及我們能夠向廣告商提供的不同功能中獲得更多的廣告收入。所以這兩件作品現在都非常適合。

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

欣賞顏色。謝謝。

Ryan McKeveny, Zelman & Associates.

瑞安麥凱文尼，Zelman & Associates。

Glenn and Chris, thanks for taking the questions, Maybe for Glenn. On Redfin Next and the recruitment efforts there, I guess when we think about all the ways that we can slice and dice agents in the industry. So whether that's people new to the industry or veterans or those who like online leads versus those who don't or individual agents versus teams, there's a lot of ways we can slice and dice things.

格倫和克里斯，謝謝你們提出問題，也許是為了格倫。關於 Redfin Next 和那裡的招聘工作，我想當我們考慮我們可以對行業中的代理商進行切片和切塊的所有方法時。因此，無論是行業新手還是資深人士，還是喜歡在線銷售線索的人與不喜歡在線銷售線索的人，還是個人代理與團隊的人，我們都有很多方法可以對事物進行分割和切分。

But I'm curious if you can talk about the types of agents that the Redfin Next approach is resonating most with. Is there a characteristic or type of agent out there where you're finding success on the recruiting side or who this seems to be the most appealing option to? Thank you.

但我很好奇您是否能談談 Redfin Next 方法最能引起共鳴的代理類型。您是否在招聘方面找到了成功的經紀人的特徵或類型，或者這似乎是最有吸引力的選擇？謝謝。

Another great question. Thank you, Ryan. Well, there are two dimensions to that. We do think the appeal is broad. So a wide range of agents have applied for the job.

另一個很好的問題。謝謝你，瑞安。嗯，這有兩個維度。我們確實認為這種吸引力是廣泛的。因此，各種各樣的代理人都申請了這份工作。

But what we've learned is that the agents who have experience working with online opportunities, whether through Redfin's partner program, Zillow's, Realtor, some other website, they have the systematic approach to maximize gross profit from a given online set of opportunities. So they're going to be very driven to have a high close rate. There's just a different way you need to approach online customers because they may have gone to three different websites for introductions to three different agents. So you need to be fast and you need to be good.

但我們了解到，擁有線上機會工作經驗的代理商，無論是透過Redfin 的合作夥伴計劃、Zillow、Realtor 還是其他一些網站，他們都有系統化的方法來從一組給定的線上機會中實現毛利最大化。所以他們會非常有動力去獲得高成交率。您需要採用不同的方式來接觸線上客戶，因為他們可能會造訪三個不同的網站來介紹三個不同的代理商。所以你需要快，而且你需要好。

So that has been our experience, getting agents, not just with the great lifetime deal count, but with good deal velocity unsurprisingly has also been important. So what have you done for me lately is a really key question.

因此，這就是我們的經驗，尋找代理商不僅具有大量的終身交易數量，而且毫不奇怪地具有良好的交易速度也很重要。所以你最近為我做了什麼是一個非常關鍵的問題。

And then I think the next dimension for us is teams. So we want the Redfin promise to be that when you come to our website as opposed to any other real estate website. You're just already more likely to work with a top producer. We want to double down on that by forming teams around our top producers, which allows us to develop new-to-the-industry-type agents under a top producer and being able to work together in those teams has already been quite effective for us and some pilots.

然後我認為我們的下一個維度是團隊。因此，我們希望 Redfin 在您造訪我們的網站而不是任何其他房地產網站時做出這樣的承諾。您已經更有可能與頂級製作人合作。我們希望透過圍繞我們的頂級製作人組建團隊來加倍努力，這使我們能夠在頂級製作人的領導下開發新的行業類型代理商，並且能夠在這些團隊中一起工作對我們來說已經非常有效和一些飛行員。

So we think that will let us scale out hiring and draw on a well that has been very deep for us in the past, whenever we've been able to take associate agents who already know our system and moving into reagent roles. They've done well, except in the luxury segment. And so now we're going after top producers, but we think we can still pair them with that junior agent, combining quality and quantity. We need more agents just to meet the new service levels that we've established in 2024.

因此，我們認為，每當我們能夠聘請已經了解我們系統並擔任試劑角色的副代理人時，這將使我們擴大招聘規模，並利用過去對我們來說非常深的一口井。除了奢侈品領域外，他們做得很好。所以現在我們正在尋找頂級製作人，但我們認為我們仍然可以將他們與初級經紀人配對，將品質和數量結合起來。我們需要更多代理商來滿足我們在 2024 年建立的新服務水準。

That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

這非常有幫助。太感謝了。

Ygal Arounian, Citigroup.

Ygal Arounian，花旗集團。

Hey. Good afternoon, guys. I'll start on the NAR buy-side fees. Glenn, it sounds like your base case here basically is expectations that there will be some compression on fees. Maybe if you could just elaborate on that and kind of where you think things will balance. And maybe also elaborate on that point of trading off the lower fees per sale for driving more volume and kind of what the strategy around that?

嘿。下午好，夥計們。我將從 NAR 買方費用開始。格倫，聽起來你的基本情況基本上是期望費用會有所壓縮。也許你可以詳細說明這一點以及你認為事情會平衡的地方。也許還可以詳細說明以降低每次銷售費用來提高銷售的觀點，以及圍繞這一點的策略是什麼？

Sure. So another great question. We've had early experience with this in places like Indianapolis and Houston, which issued their rules ahead of the August 17 deadline. And what we've learned is that there may be different fee levels that our competitors have in those markets when they list a property and offer commission to the buyer. And if one was 2.75 and another was 2.5, it seems like 2.5 is becoming more common or if it were 3 in 2.75 or if it were 2.5 and 2.25, it seems to be moving towards that lower number.

當然。這是另一個很好的問題。我們在印第安納波利斯和休斯頓等地有過這方面的早期經驗，這些地方在 8 月 17 日截止日期之前發布了規則。我們了解到，我們的競爭對手在這些市場上列出房產並向買家提供佣金時，可能會收取不同的費用水平。如果一個是 2.75，另一個是 2.5，那麼 2.5 似乎變得越來越常見，或者如果 2.75 中有 3 個，或者如果是 2.5 和 2.25，則似乎正在朝著更低的數字發展。

If you look at a chart, you can really tell how commissions have come down since March 15. Commissions have been very stable over the past decade for buyers agents, where they think they've been more competitive for selling agents. So our belief is that there will be some pressure on commissions.

如果你看一下圖表，你就能真正看出自 3 月 15 日以來佣金是如何下降的。過去十年，買家代理的佣金非常穩定，他們認為他們對銷售代理來說更具競爭力。因此我們認為佣金將會面臨一些壓力。

It's very early to make that call. I do think that some of the people who listed their own home already had a preconceived notion of how much they would pay the buyer's agent. And next spring, when people list their home, those preconceived notions may not be as ready set.

現在打電話還為時過早。我確實認為，一些列出自己房屋的人已經對他們要向買方經紀人支付的費用有一個先入為主的想法。明年春天，當人們列出自己的房子時，這些先入為主的觀念可能還沒準備好。

The other factor that we mentioned in the call is just that it has shifted toward a buyer's market. So if sellers are going to be careful about how much they pay a buyer's agent that's easier to do when you have multiple offers. But right now, another reason that sellers have been fairly amenable to paying the buyer's agent, it's because they started to worry they're not going to get an offer.

我們在電話中提到的另一個因素是它已經轉向買方市場。因此，如果賣家要謹慎對待向買家代理人支付的費用，那麼當你有多個報價時，這會更容易做到。但現在，賣家相當樂意向買方經紀人付款的另一個原因是，他們開始擔心自己不會得到報價。

So we may see more price pressure over time, and we've already got a mechanism to deal with that where we meet the customer at the first store, they have the sign-and-save offer where we can lower the commission. And we've tried in the past to recruit buyers by offering them a better deal. And mostly, they've been confused by that because they haven't been the ones paying their agent. They don't understand how commissions work. And that seems to have significantly changed.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到更大的價格壓力，而且我們已經有了一種機制來處理這種情況，我們在第一家商店與客戶會面，他們有簽收優惠，我們可以降低佣金。我們過去曾嘗試透過提供更優惠的價格來吸引買家。大多數情況下，他們對此感到困惑，因為他們並不是支付經紀人費用的人。他們不明白佣金是如何運作的。這似乎已經發生了重大變化。

And so if that happens, we think we can use price as a weapon to gain share. And over time, that may mean that the margins between our listing service and our buyer service equilibrate. So we're making the same margin on both. Today, almost all the savings are concentrated on the seller because that is the customer who's been most price sensitive.

因此，如果發生這種情況，我們認為我們可以使用價格作為獲得份額的武器。隨著時間的推移，這可能意味著我們的上市服務和買家服務之間的利潤將達到平衡。所以我們在兩者上都獲得相同的利潤。如今，幾乎所有的節省都集中在賣家身上，因為他們是對價格最敏感的客戶。

So our goal here would be to use this to drive close rate, where we close more of the customers by offering them a better deal from the moment we meet and actually to use it to just drive more demand off the website itself because we're known for being a beacon of value.

因此，我們的目標是利用這一點來提高成交率，從我們見面的那一刻起，我們就透過為他們提供更好的交易來吸引更多的客戶，並實際上利用它來推動網站本身的更多需求，因為我們因價值燈塔而聞名。

Great. That's really helpful. Maybe a follow-up on the margin side. And I guess, clear -- okay, we're getting to the breakeven here, but you talked about being significantly profitable in the years ahead.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。也許是邊際方面的後續行動。我想，很明顯——好吧，我們正在實現盈虧平衡，但你談到了在未來幾年將實現顯著盈利。

Maybe I'm not expecting you to put a number around that right now, but if you could help kind of understand the path to that or what significantly profitable looks like? What you guys need to get there would be helpful. Thanks.

也許我不希望你現在就給出一個數字，但你是否可以幫助理解實現這一目標的路徑或顯著盈利的樣子？你們到達那裡需要的東西會很有幫助。謝謝。

I'll start and Chris can finish here. We do think that we can get more scale in real estate services at similar margins and that we can generate more gross profit from the same amount of online demand. But we also expect online demand to grow.

我先開始，克里斯在這裡結束。我們確實認為，我們可以在相似的利潤率下擴大房地產服務的規模，並且可以從相同數量的線上需求中產生更多的毛利。但我們也預期線上需求將會成長。

If you look at the National Association of Realtors numbers, their annualized rate as of July 23 was 3.9 million. We haven't been at that level since 1995 when the population was 25% lower. So if real estate services can crank it out this year, it can really make more money next year.

如果你看全國房地產經紀人協會的數據，截至 7 月 23 日的年化成長率為 390 萬。自 1995 年人口減少 25% 以來，我們從未達到這個水準。所以，如果房地產服務今年能搞好的話，明年就真的能賺更多錢了。

But we also expect these other digital businesses to grow. So we haven't completely monetized the website. We haven't really scaled our rentals marketplace. So we think that years of being over focused on the brokerage and under focused on these other digital businesses are now shifting and that there's significant upside there.

但我們也預期這些其他數位業務將會成長。所以我們還沒有完全將網站貨幣化。我們還沒有真正擴大我們的租賃市場。因此，我們認為多年來對經紀業務的過度關注和對其他數位業務的關注不足現在正在轉變，並且存在顯著的上升空間。

So part of our bet is that we're going to take share. Part of our bet is that even as the real estate industry gets nasty, there's still moves that we can make to get more efficient. We talked about support and management costs. Part of our bet is that the housing market will get better. But the overarching thesis of the company is that it's just gotten more digital, and that process will continue and there's a lot of money to be made there. Chris, why don't you add to that?

因此，我們的部分賭注是我們將分享份額。我們的部分賭注是，即使房地產行業變得糟糕，我們仍然可以採取措施來提高效率。我們討論了支援和管理成本。我們的部分賭注是房地產市場會變得更好。但該公司的首要論點是，它已經變得更加數位化，而且這個過程將繼續下去，並且可以賺很多錢。克里斯，你為什麼不補充一下呢？

I will. The one thing I just wanted to add was on the cost front, where even from the first quarter into the second quarter, we brought down tech and dev and G&A costs. And we do expect to continue to be really careful, really tight on cost to manage business for the rest of this year. But more fundamentally, we do think we have the right cost structure in place to be able to grow the business on top of that. So is that combination of continued revenue growth and holding down costs that allows us to drive the profits.

我會。我只想補充的一件事是在成本方面，即使從第一季到第二季度，我們也降低了技術、開發和一般管理成本。我們確實希望在今年剩餘時間內繼續非常謹慎、嚴格控製成本來管理業務。但更根本的是，我們確實認為自己擁有正確的成本結構，能夠在此基礎上發展業務。持續的收入成長和控製成本的結合也使我們能夠提高利潤。

Great. Thank you, guys. It's really helpful.

偉大的。謝謝你們，夥計們。這真的很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Campbell, Stephens Inc.

約翰坎貝爾，史蒂芬斯公司

Hey, guys, congrats on a great quarter. On the guidance for real estate revenue, I just want to maybe start there. At the midpoint, it looks like you're calling for a 7% sequential decline. If I go back and look over the last 10 years and basically take out some of the outliers, I think there's rate spike kind of fall out in 2022. And then obviously, you had a big jump during COVID in 2020.

嘿，夥計們，恭喜您度過了一個精彩的季度。關於房地產收入的指導，我只想從這裡開始。在中點，您似乎要求環比下降 7%。如果我回顧過去 10 年，基本上剔除一些異常值，我認為 2022 年利率高峰將會出現。顯然，在 2020 年新冠疫情期間，您的業績出現了大幅躍升。

But that last 10 years' average is up modestly sequentially. It seems like you're going to get some rate relief here, who knows how much the market will respond to that. But Seattle, that's your top market that it looks like the July results were really strong. You had lead agent count up 4% into 2Q, thinking that probably sets the stage for some seasoning of those agents into 3Q. But I'm struggling to square up all that with your guidance.

但過去 10 年的平均值連續小幅上升。看起來你會在這裡得到一些利率減免，誰知道市場會對此做出多少反應。但是西雅圖，那是您的頂級市場，看起來 7 月的結果非常強勁。您的主要特工數量在第二季度增長了 4%，認為這可能為這些特工進入第三季度的一些調整奠定了基礎。但我正在努力將這一切與你的指導結合。

So maybe if you could start with unpacking how you expect the market to fair in 3Q, are you expecting it to be down a fair amount, I guess, just housing activity? Or is that maybe a little bit influenced by the conservatism with some of the market changes coming in August 17?

因此，如果您可以先了解您對第三季市場表現的預期，您是否預計市場會出現相當大的下降，我猜，只是房地產活動？或者這可能是受到 8 月 17 日即將發生的一些市場變化的保守主義影響？

Sure. So the way we always set guidance is based on what we can see in terms of customer behavior, but also booked revenue. And so we're sitting here today with a view on July and somewhat on August. And I think our take is that the market has been slow in the last couple of months in general, and that has influenced what the revenue guidance looks like.

當然。因此，我們始終設定指導的方式是基於我們可以看到的客戶行為，但也包括預訂收入。所以我們今天坐在這裡，可以看到七月和八月的景色。我認為我們的看法是，過去幾個月市場整體成長緩慢，這影響了收入指引的樣子。

We're not making a significant assumption about an improving housing market as we move forward from here coming from the lower mortgage interest rates that we've seen more recently. That certainly could happen and we would be thrilled if it pulled through in that way, but it's still too early to make that call.

隨著我們最近看到的抵押貸款利率較低，我們並沒有對房地產市場的改善做出重大假設。這當然有可能發生，如果它能以這種方式實現，我們會很興奮，但現在做出這個決定還為時過早。

Okay. And then --

好的。進而--

And it's been like, John --

就像，約翰--

Go ahead.

前進。

It's been Twilight zone, man. The economist dug up some weird little period in 2016, where rates went down and mortgage purchase classifications didn't go up, but I don't remember it. I can't remember a time when rates came down this far, this fast, and the market has been so muted in its response. And we just have to believe that it will.

這是暮光之城，老兄。經濟學家在 2016 年挖掘了一些奇怪的小時期，利率下降，抵押貸款購買類別沒有上升，但我不記得了。我不記得利率降得這麼快、降得這麼快，而市場的反應卻如此平靜。我們只需要相信它會發生。

But the immediate reaction, we have a better instrumented funnel than I think almost anyone else has just been. I know you had another question.

但立即的反應是，我們擁有比我認為幾乎其他任何人更好的儀表化漏斗。我知道你還有另一個問題。

Yeah. No, that's good color. And I guess kind of related to that, as far as your market view, the roughly breakeven EBITDA for this year that you've put out there, I'm just curious how much of that is -- you're viewing a self-help and cost containment versus the macro. I guess, said another way, do you feel like you can still hit that market even if consumers don't really react to lower rates like you're mentioning?

是的。不，這個顏色很好。我想與此相關的是，就您的市場觀點而言，您今年發布的大致盈虧平衡的 EBITDA，我只是好奇其中有多少 - 您正在查看一個自我 -與宏觀相比的幫助和成本控制。我想，換句話說，即使消費者沒有像你提到的那樣對較低的利率做出真正的反應，你是否覺得你仍然可以進入這個市場？

Yes. It isn't based on anything except self help. Hope is not a strategy.

是的。除了自助之外，它不基於任何其他東西。希望不是策略。

Perfect. Thanks, guys.

完美的。謝謝，夥計們。

Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.

柯蒂斯‧內格爾，美國銀行。

Great. Thanks so much taking the call. So maybe just segueing on that point, a question for you. So in terms of its kind of non-response, right, from consumers and rates, which to your point is highly unusual, I guess how much of it do you think is just some of the color we've picked up? People -- just a lot more aware kind of total home costs, whether it's taxes, insurance rates, financing, a part of that?

偉大的。非常感謝您接聽電話。所以也許只是繼續討論這一點，向你提出一個問題。因此，就消費者和費率的無反應而言，這對您來說是非常不尋常的，我想您認為其中有多少只是我們拾取的一些顏色？人們——只是更了解住房總成本，無論是稅收、保險費率、融資還是其中的一部分？

And just it may just simply take much longer for this unwind right, to, I guess, acclimatize, right, keep to higher costs. Or do you think with help rates and perhaps prices going down, that will be enough to unlock given so much underlying demand?

我想，這種放鬆可能需要更長的時間來適應更高的成本。或者您認為，隨著救助率和價格的下降，考慮到如此多的潛在需求，這足以解鎖嗎？

Great question, Curt. I think some of it might just be that it came too late in the home buying season. Some people are on vacation this week. And so the reaction has been slower. If that had happened in April, May, June, when people were raring and ready to go, maybe would have had a different reaction.

好問題，柯特。我認為部分原因可能是購屋季節來得太晚了。本周有些人正在度假。所以反應也變慢了。如果這件事發生在四月、五月、六月，當人們都在準備出發時，也許會有不同的反應。

Some of it is just that America has become so partisan that people are now convinced that the only thing that we'll save the housing market is if their candidate wins. And I'm not sure that goes one way or the other.

其中一些原因只是美國的黨派偏見如此之大，以至於人們現在相信，我們唯一能拯救房地產市場的就是他們的候選人獲勝。我不確定這會是一種方式還是另一種方式。

But be that as it may, Americans are distracted. There's some fatigue and the reaction may be slower. It's just inconceivable to me that there won't be a reaction, the actual physics of how much you pay every month have significantly changed no matter what the insurance offset might be in Florida or California.

但儘管如此，美國人還是心煩意亂。有一些疲勞，反應可能會變慢。對我來說，不會有任何反應是不可思議的，無論佛羅裡達州或加利福尼亞州的保險補償是多少，您每月支付多少錢的實際物理情況已經發生了顯著變化。

Got it. Okay. That makes sense. And then so in terms of just thinking about the partnership business, any effect in terms of, I guess, revenue contribution with Next coming in, maybe revenue from one or the other? Or yeah, how should we think about that generally kind of through the year in the next?

知道了。好的。這是有道理的。那麼，就考慮合作夥伴業務而言，我猜，Next 的收入貢獻可能會受到其中之一或另一個的收入貢獻？或者是的，我們該如何思考接下來的一年？

Well, we think that the partner business is going to continue to grow for two reasons. One is that some of the sales execution improvements we're seeing in the brokerage. We're also seeing in the partner business. We hired a new leader to run it, and she's just absolutely fantastic.

嗯，我們認為合作夥伴業務將繼續成長，原因有二。一是我們在經紀業務中看到的一些銷售執行力的改進。我們也看到了合作夥伴業務。我們聘請了一位新領導來管理它，她非常棒。

And then the other reason is that we aren't going backwards on our digital shift. We have decided that we want to focus the brokerage on the most profitable opportunities. And we do need more agents to do that because we're raising our service levels and finding out that the extra agents are paying for themselves through higher close rates.

另一個原因是我們的數位轉型不會倒退。我們決定將經紀業務的重點放在最有利可圖的機會上。我們確實需要更多的代理商來做到這一點，因為我們正在提高我們的服務水平，並發現額外的代理商正在透過更高的成交率來為自己付出代價。

That isn't giving them more opportunities. They're getting kind of the same proportion of opportunities but just meeting more customers, serving them better, getting a higher close rate. So the business is going to continue to shift toward a more digital margin. And we're going to continue to be rational about who's the best person to serve this customer, who's going to deliver the highest close rate and the most profit.

這並沒有給他們更多的機會。他們獲得了相同比例的機會，但只是結識了更多客戶，為他們提供更好的服務，獲得更高的成交率。因此，該業務將繼續轉向更數位化的利潤。我們將繼續理性地思考誰是服務該客戶的最佳人選，誰將提供最高的成交率和最大的利潤。

Got it. Thanks very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

(Operator Instructions) Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

（操作員說明）Jay McCanless，Wedbush。

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. So Glenn, just to take this a step further, what is Plan B if mortgage rates don't come down? Because to me, this sounds very much like August of 2023, where everyone said rates were going to come down, and we really didn't see that move this year until we thought the employment numbers are starting to fade a little bit. So kind of walk us through what the plan B is if rates go back to high-6s, low-7s?

嘿。大家下午好。那麼格倫，更進一步來說，如果抵押貸款利率不下降，B 計劃是什麼？因為對我來說，這聽起來很像 2023 年 8 月，當時每個人都說利率將會下降，而今年我們確實沒有看到這種變化，直到我們認為就業數字開始略有下降。那麼請告訴我們，如果利率回到高 6、低 7 水平，B 計劃是什麼？

Great question. Plan B is drink our own urine or our competitors' blood. Stay in the foxhole. I don't know if you remember, but the last earnings call ended with me singing a line from a Who song, won't get fooled again, where I had said we're not banking on low rates when other people had thought they might come down.

很好的問題。B計劃是喝我們自己的尿液或競爭對手的血液。留在散兵坑裡。我不知道你是否還記得，但上次財報電話會議結束時，我唱了一首Who 歌曲《不會再被愚弄》中的一句台詞，我曾說過，當其他人認為低利率時，我們不會指望低利率。

I don't know. I'm just very, very seasoned in ups and downs in the housing market. If it comes, it will be upside. We've built a model that's more resilient, so we don't have to hire a bunch of salaried agents in advance of that. We're ready to take share if the market grows, we're ready to take share if it doesn't. But we're not going to ease off.

我不知道。我對房地產市場的起起落落非常非常有經驗。如果它來了，那將會是好的。我們已經建立了一個更具彈性的模型，因此我們不必在此之前僱用一群受薪代理人。如果市場成長，我們準備好搶佔份額，如果市場不成長，我們也準備好搶佔份額。但我們不會放鬆。

Okay. That's all I had. Thank you.

好的。這就是我所擁有的一切。謝謝。

Thank you. We'll drink our urine before the blood. Actually, I wish I just hadn't said that. (inaudible)

謝謝。我們先喝尿再喝血。事實上，我希望我沒有這麼說。（聽不清楚）

There are no further questions. This concludes the Redfin Corporation second-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Thank you for attending, and have a great rest of your day.

沒有其他問題了。Redfin Corporation 2024 年第二季財報電話會議至此結束。感謝您的出席，祝您有個愉快的一天。