Redfin Corp (RDFN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Redfin Corporation quarter-four 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Meg Nunnally, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、投資者關係主管梅格·納納利 (Meg Nunnally)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的第四季和財政年度財務業績電話會議。我是 Redfin 投資人關係主管 Meg Nunnally。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Glenn Kelman 和我們的財務長 Chris Nielsen。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在今天的電話會議上發表的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信，與這些前瞻性陳述相關的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會有重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com, for more information relating to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against continuing operations for the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論財務績效時採用非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 investors.redfin.com 上找到，以獲取有關我們的非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關對帳。除非另有說明，本次電話會議中進行的所有比較均與去年同期的持續經營進行比較。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束後在我們的網站上提供一份我們準備好的發言稿的副本，並且完整的文字記錄和音頻重播也將在電話會議結束後不久提供。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給格倫。

Thanks, Meg, and hi, everyone.

謝謝，梅格，大家好。

Redfin's fourth-quarter revenue of $244 million was within our guidance range and up 12% over last year. It was our fourth straight quarter of growth with real estate services growing faster than at any point since the fourth quarter of 2021. Our adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million was below our guidance range due to higher-than-expected pay for our real estate agents. But still, every business improved fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA from 2023 to 2024.

Redfin 在第四季營收為 2.44 億美元，符合我們的預期範圍，比去年同期成長 12%。這是我們連續第四個季度實現成長，房地產服務的成長速度比 2021 年第四季以來的任何時候都要快。由於我們的房地產經紀人的薪酬高於預期，我們的調整後 EBITDA 損失為 300 萬美元，低於我們的指導範圍。但儘管如此，從 2023 年到 2024 年，每家企業的第四季度調整後 EBITDA 均有所提高。

Our full-year adjusted EBITDA loss was $27 million, an improvement of $53 million over 2023 and $165 million over 2022. Our fourth-quarter profits were lower due to Redfin Next, which pays our agents entirely on commissions. One-time transaction -- excuse me, one-time transition costs were higher than expected, but our sales force has also grown faster than expected. Our lead agent census has increased from an average of 1,757 in the third quarter to more than 2,200 today, a 25% increase. At the most critical points in our sales cycle, meeting new customers and then winning offers, new hires have already been outperforming tenured Redfin agents.

我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2,700 萬美元，比 2023 年改善 5,300 萬美元，比 2022 年改善 1.65 億美元。由於 Redfin Next 完全透過佣金向我們的代理商支付費用，導致我們第四季的利潤較低。一次性交易－對不起，一次性過渡成本高於預期，但我們的銷售團隊的成長速度也比預期的要快。我們的首席代理商數量從第三季的平均 1,757 人增加到今天的 2,200 多人，增幅為 25%。在我們的銷售週期中最關鍵的時刻，即結識新客戶並贏得報價，新員工的表現已經超越了長期任職的 Redfin 代理商。

When new hires' first customers start closing, we expect sales to grow in the spring. But a transition of this magnitude also has a one-time effect on sales as our last set of markets shifted to Next just before Halloween, agents who preferred a salary left and with them some of the sales that were about to close.

當新員工的第一批客戶開始成交時，我們預計春季銷售額將會成長。但這種程度的轉變也對銷售產生了一次性影響，因為我們的最後一組市場在萬聖節前夕轉移到了 Next，那些喜歡拿薪水的經紀人離開了，一些即將完成的銷售也隨之消失。

The good news is that a few months after market shifts to Next, attrition usually declines below pre-Next levels. But during this transition, our fourth quarter real estate services market share was 0.72%, flat year over year. We'll gladly forgo a quarter of share gains in exchange for the revenue growth that we expect from a larger and better sales force.

好消息是，市場轉向 Next 幾個月後，員工流動率通常會下降到 Next 之前的水平。但在此轉型期間，我們第四季房地產服務市佔率為0.72%，較去年同期持平。我們很樂意放棄四分之一的股份成長，以換取我們期望從更大、更好的銷售團隊中獲得的收入成長。

The rapid expansion of our sales force is just one of the ways that Redfin plans to go on the attack in 2025. On February 6, we signed a rentals partnership with Zillow that will double the number of high-quality apartment listings on our sites so we can compete better for traffic. The $100 million payment Redfin got via the partnership strengthens our balance sheet and partly funds a 38% increase in 2025 advertising.

銷售隊伍的快速擴張只是 Redfin 計劃在 2025 年發動攻擊的方式之一。2 月 6 日，我們與 Zillow 簽署了租賃合作協議，這將使我們網站上的優質公寓房源數量增加一倍，以便我們更好地爭奪流量。Redfin 透過合作獲得的 1 億美元付款增強了我們的資產負債表，並部分資助了 2025 年廣告 38% 的成長。

Due to the increased profits from this rentals partnership and the January layoff of senior Redfin personnel, we can invest more in growth and still earn a significant adjusted EBITDA profit in 2025. Our first-quarter profits are expected to be down about $8 million year over year at the midpoint of our guidance, but we'd be significantly improving profits if not for an incremental $17 million investment in advertising. January demand is already up 5% and should increase more in future months as the mass media campaign didn't start until January 13 and won't stop until June.

由於此次租賃合作帶來的利潤增加以及 Redfin 高級人員在一月份的裁員，我們可以在增長方面投入更多資金，並且在 2025 年仍能獲得可觀的調整後 EBITDA 利潤。根據我們預期的中位數，我們第一季的利潤預計將比去年同期下降約 800 萬美元，但如果沒有增加 1,700 萬美元的廣告投資，我們的利潤將會大幅提高。1 月的需求已經上漲了 5%，而且由於大眾媒體宣傳活動直到 1 月 13 日才開始，並且要到 6 月才會結束，因此未來幾個月的需求量應該還會進一步增加。

As we grow revenues, we also expect real estate gross margins to approach 30% in 2025. From the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024, real estate services gross margins declined by 60 basis points, but only because we underestimated the cost of our Next pay plan by about $4 million in the fourth quarter and by a slightly smaller amount in the third quarter. We recognized these costs in 2024 and offset them starting this month by eliminating vacation pay and other entitlements that agents care less about than their bonus.

隨著營收的成長，我們預計到 2025 年房地產毛利率將接近 30%。從 2023 年第四季到 2024 年第四季度，房地產服務毛利率下降了 60 個基點，但這只是因為我們在第四季度低估了 Next 付費計畫的成本約 400 萬美元，在第三季度低估的金額略少。我們在 2024 年確認了這些成本，並從本月開始透過取消休假工資和其他代理人比獎金更不關心的福利來抵消這些成本。

Already, we expect first quarter real estate services gross margins to be significantly higher than in 2024 because of the February reduction in entitlements. We expect second-quarter margins to increase again as the agents hired in winter start closing sales.

由於 2 月福利減少，我們預計第一季房地產服務毛利率將顯著高於 2024 年。我們預計，隨著冬季僱用的代理商開始完成銷售，第二季的利潤率將再次增加。

Beyond the year-over-year gains in real estate services margin and market share that we expect from rising demand in a larger sales force, we also plan to improve monetization, increasing profits in every other business segment. To earn more money from our brokerage customers, we'll keep selling mortgage and title services. Mortgage attach rates sagged in the fourth quarter to 26% but surged to 29% in January after we announced that high attach rate agents would get more customers from our website.

我們預計，隨著銷售隊伍規模擴大，需求將持續成長，房地產服務利潤率和市場份額也將隨之同比成長。除此之外，我們還計劃提高貨幣化水平，增加其他所有業務部門的利潤。為了從我們的經紀客戶那裡賺取更多的錢，我們將繼續銷售抵押貸款和產權服務。抵押貸款附加利率在第四季度下滑至 26%，但在我們宣布高附加利率代理商將從我們的網站獲得更多客戶後，1 月飆升至 29%。

Title attach rates are also increasing to 63% in the fourth quarter, up from 60% a year ago. Our title business, now reported separately from our other segment, generated $8 million in 2024 adjusted EBITDA, an improvement of $9 million over 2023. These ancillary sales should fuel more demand.

第四季的產權附加率也從一年前的 60% 上升至 63%。我們的產權業務現在與其他部門分開報告，2024 年調整後 EBITDA 為 800 萬美元，比 2023 年增加了 900 萬美元。這些輔助銷售應該會刺激更多的需求。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, we were, for the first time, able to profitably invest in broader homebuyer campaigns on Google and Facebook based on mortgage and title revenues, not just home sales.

2024 年第四季度，我們首次能夠根據抵押貸款和產權收入（而不僅僅是房屋銷售）在 Google 和 Facebook 上對更廣泛的購屋者活動進行有利可圖的投資。

On top of increasing our rentals audience by publishing more listings, we also plan to monetize that audience better, even without a traffic increase driven by more listings. And even setting aside Zillow's $100 million upfront payment, we believe that the money the Zillow-Redfin partnership pays us for each rental lead will increase our profits.

除了透過發布更多房源來增加租賃受眾之外，我們還計劃更好地將受眾貨幣化，即使沒有更多房源帶來的流量成長。即使不考慮 Zillow 的 1 億美元預付款，我們相信 Zillow-Redfin 合作夥伴關係為每個租賃線索支付給我們的錢也會增加我們的利潤。

Between February 21 and June 30, we plan to lay off roughly 450 Rent employees, many in sales and sales support. We're grateful for their heroic efforts. We can profitably invest in Rent.com and ApartmentGuide.com technology and marketing because of these sites’, large, lucrative audience of apartment seekers who we can now more easily connect to property managers.

2 月 21 日至 6 月 30 日期間，我們計劃裁掉約 450 名 Rent 員工，其中許多是銷售和銷售支援人員。我們感謝他們的英勇努力。我們可以從 Rent.com 和 ApartmentGuide.com 的技術和行銷中獲得豐厚的投資，因為這些網站擁有大量利潤豐厚的公寓尋求者，我們現在可以更輕鬆地將他們與物業經理聯繫起來。

Over the past year, we were forced to prioritize the apartment seekers' search experience over monetization with our site showing about 20,000 apartment listings that our audience couldn't easily ask about, and that generated no revenue. But the Zillow partnership gives us so many listings from paying property management customers that we no longer need to show unpaid listings. And earning a set amount for every inquiry about every apartment on our sites makes it easier to scale our audience through direct marketing campaigns and search site improvements.

在過去的一年裡，我們被迫優先考慮公寓搜尋者的搜尋體驗而不是貨幣化，我們的網站顯示了大約 20,000 個公寓列表，我們的觀眾無法輕鬆詢問，並且沒有產生任何收入。但與 Zillow 的合作為我們提供瞭如此多的付費物業管理客戶的房源，以至於我們不再需要顯示未付費的房源。透過對我們網站上每套公寓的每次諮詢賺取一定數量的收入，我們可以更輕鬆地透過直接行銷活動和搜尋網站改進來擴大受眾群體。

The final element of our monetization strategy is the broadest, continued profitable growth from digital advertising to both for-sale and rentals audiences. Beyond display ads hosted on our sites, digital advertising includes revenue from promoting new construction listings on Redfin.com and from letting lenders connect with the mortgage seekers we can't serve ourselves.

我們的貨幣化策略的最後一個要素是從數位廣告到銷售和租賃受眾的最廣泛、持續的獲利成長。除了我們網站上的展示廣告外，數位廣告還包括在 Redfin.com 上推廣新建築清單的收入，以及讓貸方與我們無法自行服務的抵押貸款尋求者建立聯繫的收入。

This digital advertising segment, once combined with our title business in the other segment, is now known as monetization. Monetization earned $15 million in 2024 adjusted EBITDA, up 46% from 2023 with further growth expected to come from direct sales to advertisers who previously accessed our audience through ad networks.

這個數位廣告部門曾經與我們在其他部門的冠名業務合併，現在被稱為貨幣化。貨幣化在 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 中賺取了 1500 萬美元，比 2023 年增長了 46%，預計進一步的增長將來自直接向先前透過廣告網路接觸我們受眾的廣告商銷售。

Few investors seem likely to argue with our plans to monetize our audience better and to get more traffic and more agents. But our prepared remarks are briefer than usual because we understand that what really matters now is our execution of these plans so we can deliver share gains and profits. We'll discuss the housing market and Chris will lay out our first-quarter guidance.

似乎很少有投資者會反對我們更好地將觀眾貨幣化並獲得更多流量和更多代理商的計劃。但我們準備好的發言比平常更簡短，因為我們知道現在真正重要的是執行這些計劃，這樣我們才能實現股價上漲和利潤。我們將討論房地產市場，克里斯將制定我們的第一季指引。

One reason Redfin is focused on gaining market share is that home sales are unlikely to significantly recover in 2025. Demand increased after the November election, but interest rates seem likely to remain relatively high, making it hard for the homebuyers turning out now to afford a home.

Redfin 專注於爭取市場份額的一個原因是，2025 年房屋銷售不太可能大幅復甦。十一月大選之後，需求增加，但利率似乎仍將維持在相對較高的水平，這使得現在的購屋者難以負擔得起房子。

Pressure on year-over-year growth in home sales should ease after the first quarter just because 2024 started with an annualized rate of 4.3 million existing home sales last February compared to a nadir of 3.9 million in September. As these year-over-year comparisons get easier, we expect growth in US home sales to strengthen across the summer, especially if inventory continues to increase and sellers become less aggressive on pricing.

第一季之後，房屋銷售年增率的壓力應該會減輕，因為 2024 年 2 月現有房屋銷售年化率為 430 萬套，而 9 月的最低值為 390 萬套。隨著這些同比比較變得越來越容易，我們預計美國房屋銷售成長將在整個夏季加強，特別是如果庫存繼續增加並且賣家在定價方面變得不那麼積極的話。

The balance between buyers and sellers has been volatile and mixed. For example, our Cincinnati agents report bidding wars across a wide range of prices, whereas the Jacksonville market has shifted 100% to a buyer's market. For US home sales over the four weeks ending last Sunday, the number of days a listing took to sell increased 15% year over year.

買家和賣家之間的平衡一直不穩定且複雜。例如，我們的辛辛那提代理商報告稱，各種價格範圍內都存在競價戰，而傑克遜維爾市場已 100% 轉向買方市場。截至上週日的四周內，美國房屋銷售的掛牌天數年增了 15%。

Even if a sharp rebound is unlikely in 2025, the worst of the downturn is probably behind us. We expect the recovery to be similar to the one that ended the great financial crisis, slow and coming, initially gradual, but because homeownership is so important to American culture, hopefully very long.

即使 2025 年不太可能出現大幅反彈，但最糟糕的經濟衰退時期可能已經過去。我們預計，經濟復甦將與結束金融危機時的復甦類似，緩慢而來，最初是漸進的，但由於房屋所有權對美國文化非常重要，希望經濟復甦能持續很長時間。

Take it away, Chris.

把它拿走吧，克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. Fourth-quarter revenue was $244 million, up 12% from a year ago. Gross profit of $82 million was up 12% year over year, and total gross margin held steady at 34%. Total operating expenses were $112 million, down $5 million year over year. The decrease was primarily attributable to a $4 million decrease in rentals amortization and a $4 million decrease in software expenses.

謝謝，格倫。第四季營收為2.44億美元，較去年同期成長12%。毛利 8,200 萬美元，年增 12%，總毛利率穩定在 34%。總營運費用為 1.12 億美元，年減 500 萬美元。下降主要歸因於租金攤銷減少 400 萬美元和軟體費用減少 400 萬美元。

The lower software expenses were driven by the recognition of vendor credits that we don't expect to recur in future periods. These decreases were partially offset by a $3 million increase in marketing expenses.

軟體費用的降低是由於我們確認了供應商信用，而我們預計這些信用在未來不會再次出現。這些減少被 300 萬美元的行銷費用增加部分抵消。

Our adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million was up from a loss of $13 million from the prior year. The adjusted EBITDA improvement was broad based and carried across every segment of the business. Net loss was $36 million compared to a net loss of $23 million in the prior year. This is below our $32 million to $25 million loss guidance range, primarily due to higher-than-expected transaction bonuses in our brokerage business Glenn discussed earlier. Diluted loss per share attributable to common stock was $0.29 compared with a loss of $0.20 one year ago.

我們的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 300 萬美元，高於去年的 1,300 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 改善範圍廣泛，涉及業務的各個部門。淨虧損為 3,600 萬美元，而去年淨虧損為 2,300 萬美元。這低於我們 3200 萬美元至 2500 萬美元的虧損指導範圍，主要原因是 Glenn 之前討論過的經紀業務交易獎金高於預期。歸屬於普通股的每股攤薄虧損為 0.29 美元，而去年同期的每股虧損為 0.20 美元。

Turning to our segment results for the fourth quarter. Real estate services, which includes our brokerage and partner businesses, generated $149 million in revenue, up 12% year over year. Brokerage revenue was up 13% on a 13% increase in brokerage transactions, while brokerage revenue per transaction was flat. Revenue from our partners increased 3% on an 8% decrease in transactions, while revenue per transaction increased 13%.

談談我們第四季的分部業績。房地產服務（包括我們的經紀和合作夥伴業務）創造了 1.49 億美元的收入，年增 12%。經紀交易量成長 13%，經紀收入也隨之增加 13%，而每筆交易的經紀收入則持平。來自合作夥伴的收入成長了 3%，而交易量減少了 8%，每筆交易的收入增加了 13%。

Real estate services gross margin was 21.9%, down 60 basis points year over year. This was primarily driven by a 700-basis-point increase in personnel costs and transaction bonuses, partially offset by a 380-basis-point decrease in home touring and field expenses, as we've eliminated compensation for these activities and instead made compensation contingent on closed transactions. In addition, there was a 110-basis-point decrease from home improvement costs incurred on behalf of home sellers.

房地產服務毛利率為21.9%，較去年同期下降60個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金增加了 700 個基點，但部分被國內巡迴和現場費用減少 380 個基點所抵消，因為我們取消了對這些活動的補償，而是將補償取決於已完成的交易。此外，房屋賣家承擔的房屋裝修成本減少了 110 個基點。

Net loss for real estate services in the fourth quarter was $16 million, up from a net loss of $21 million in the prior year. And adjusted EBITDA loss was $3 million, up from a loss of $7 million in the prior year. Our rentals segment posted its ninth straight quarter of growth with revenue of $52 million, a 5% increase. Rentals gross margin was 76.2%, down from 77.5% a year ago. Net loss for rentals was $5 million, up from a net loss of $10 million from the prior year.

第四季房地產服務淨虧損為 1,600 萬美元，高於去年同期的淨虧損 2,100 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 300 萬美元，高於去年的 700 萬美元。我們的租賃部門連續第九個季度成長，營收達到 5,200 萬美元，成長 5%。租賃毛利率為 76.2%，低於去年同期的 77.5%。租賃淨虧損為 500 萬美元，高於去年的 1,000 萬美元淨虧損。

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $4 million, up from $3 million in the prior year. Our mortgage segment generated $30 million in revenue, up 15% year over year. Mortgage gross margin was 10.9%, up from 4.6% a year ago. Net loss for mortgage was $5 million, roughly flat from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $3 million compared to a $5 million loss in the prior year.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 400 萬美元，高於去年同期的 300 萬美元。我們的抵押貸款部門創造了 3000 萬美元的收入，年增 15%。房貸毛利率為 10.9%，高於一年前的 4.6%。抵押貸款淨損失為 500 萬美元，與去年基本持平。調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 300 萬美元，而去年同期的虧損為 500 萬美元。

For the quarter and the year, we've broken out more detail in our segment reporting, showing results from both our title and monetization businesses. Our title segment generated $9 million in revenue, up 58% year over year. Title gross margin was 26.2%, up from 2.2% a year ago. Net income for title is $2 million, up from a loss of $500,000 in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $2 million, up from a loss of $400,000 in the prior year.

對於本季度和本年度，我們在分部報告中提供了更詳細的信息，展示了我們的遊戲業務和貨幣化業務的業績。我們的標題部門創造了 900 萬美元的收入，年增 58%。標題毛利率為 26.2%，高於一年前的 2.2%。產權淨收入為 200 萬美元，高於前一年的 50 萬美元虧損。調整後的 EBITDA 為 200 萬美元，高於前一年的 40 萬美元虧損。

Our monetization segment generated revenue of $4 million, up 9% year over year. Net income was $3 million, up slightly from a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $3 million, also up slightly from a year ago.

我們的貨幣化部門創造了 400 萬美元的收入，年增 9%。淨收入為 300 萬美元，比去年同期略有成長。調整後的 EBITDA 為 300 萬美元，也比去年同期略有成長。

Now turning to our financial expectations for the first quarter. Total revenue is expected to be between $214 million and $225 million, representing a year-over-year change of down 5% to roughly flat compared to the first quarter of 2024. Included within total revenue are real estate services revenue between $126 million and $131 million; rentals revenue between $49 million and $51 million; mortgage revenue between $27 million and $30 million; title revenue of approximately $8 million; and monetization revenue of approximately $4 million.

現在來談談我們對第一季的財務預期。預計總收入在 2.14 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間，與 2024 年第一季相比，年減 5%，基本持平。總收入包括：1.26 億美元至 1.31 億美元的房地產服務收入；4,900 萬美元至 5,100 萬美元的租賃收入；2,700 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元的抵押貸款收入；約 800 萬美元的產權收入；以及約 4,00 萬美元的貨幣化收入。

Real estate services gross margin is expected to be between 17% and 18%, up approximately 150 to 290 basis points compared to the first quarter of 2024. Total marketing expenses are expected to be approximately $40 million, up $15 million year over year due to higher mass media spending.

房地產服務毛利率預計在17%至18%之間，較2024年第一季成長約150至290個基點。由於大眾媒體支出增加，預計總行銷費用約為 4,000 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1,500 萬美元。

We don't expect such large year-over-year increases in total marketing expense for the remainder of 2025 as savings on rentals marketing spending should help offset the mass media increase.

我們預計 2025 年剩餘時間內總行銷費用不會出現如此大的同比增長，因為租賃行銷支出的節省應該有助於抵消大眾媒體的成長。

In the first quarter, we'll have $21 million to $24 million of restructuring charges, of which approximately $18 million to $21 million is associated with our Zillow partnership and approximately $3 million is associated with the reduction in force completed in January. Of that total, we expect about $14 million to $17 million of cash charges and the rest to be non-cash charges associated with write-offs no longer needed for the go-forward business.

在第一季度，我們將有 2,100 萬至 2,400 萬美元的重組費用，其中約 1,800 萬至 2,100 萬美元與我們與 Zillow 的合作關係有關，約 300 萬美元與 1 月份完成的裁員有關。其中，我們預計約有 1,400 萬至 1,700 萬美元為現金費用，其餘為與未來業務不再需要的註銷相關的非現金費用。

Total net loss for the first quarter is expected to be between $94 million and $83 million. Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be between $39 million and $32 million.

預計第一季淨虧損總額在 9,400 萬美元至 8,300 萬美元之間。調整後的 EBITDA 損失預計在 3,900 萬美元至 3,200 萬美元之間。

Before we take your questions, I'd like to provide a little more color on the expected impact of our recently announced Zillow partnership to rentals segment financials. Once the partnership is fully implemented, which we expect to occur by July 2025, our rentals segment revenue will be comprised primarily of payments from Zillow for apartment seeker leads as well as the amortization of our deferred revenue from the $100 million initial payment.

在回答您的問題之前，我想進一步說明我們最近宣布的與 Zillow 的合作對租賃部門財務狀況的預期影響。一旦合作關係全面實施（我們預計將於 2025 年 7 月完成），我們的租賃部門收入將主要來自 Zillow 為公寓尋求者線索支付的款項，以及 1 億美元首付款的遞延收入攤銷。

Our first-quarter rentals revenue guidance includes approximately $2.5 million in deferred revenue from that initial payment but doesn't include any revenue from Zillow for leads because the partnership has not yet been implemented. As we make this transition, we expect rentals revenue will decrease, but expenses will decrease even more. The result is we expect adjusted EBITDA for this segment to be more than triple over 2024 on a run rate basis.

我們第一季的租賃收入預期包括來自首筆付款的約 250 萬美元的遞延收入，但不包括來自 Zillow 的任何收入，因為合作關係尚未實施。隨著我們進行這一轉變，我們預計租金收入將會減少，但支出將會減少更多。結果就是，我們預計該部門的調整後 EBITDA 在 2024 年的運作率基礎上將成長兩倍以上。

And now let's take your questions.

現在我們來回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Naved Khan, B. Riley.

（操作員指示） Naved Khan，B. Riley。

I have two questions, one on the ad spending of the $40 million that you're trying to spend in the first quarter. Is there a timing impact that I should think about versus last year in terms of why you decided to maybe do it earlier? Or how should I think about maybe marketing spend in the remaining quarters?

我有兩個問題，一個是有關您計劃在第一季花費的 4000 萬美元的廣告支出。就您為什麼決定提前做這件事而言，我是否應該考慮與去年相比的時間影響？或者我應該如何考慮剩餘季度的行銷支出？

And then the other question I had is just around full-year EBITDA and free cash flow profitability. What's the right way to think about it now that you have this partnership in place, in addition to all of the other changes you've made, including Next and some other things? Thank you.

我的另一個問題是關於全年 EBITDA 和自由現金流盈利能力。既然您已經建立了這種合作關係，除了您所做的所有其他改變（包括 Next 和其他一些事情）之外，正確的思考方式是什麼？謝謝。

Sure. So I'll start, and Chris, if you have any color to add, please do. But we're advertising early because we think that's when homebuyers are in the market, and we wanted to be top of mind as they started thinking about which broker to use for listing their home. So far, that ad is producing the expected lift in demand, which is great news. We saw increases in demand in January, even ahead of the mass media campaign.

當然。那麼我就開始了，克里斯，如果你有任何顏色要添加，請添加。但我們提前做廣告是因為我們認為那時購屋者正處於市場之中，當他們開始考慮使用哪個經紀人來掛牌出售他們的房屋時，我們希望成為他們首先想到的。到目前為止，該廣告正在產生預期的需求成長，這是個好消息。我們看到一月份的需求增加，甚至早於大眾媒體宣傳活動。

And now that interest rates are rising, we're glad to have that lift from mass media expense. It should run through June so we will have more leverage in the second half of the year than the first.

現在利率正在上升，我們很高興大眾媒體支出能帶來提振。該計劃應該會持續到六月，因此我們在下半年將比上半年擁有更大的影響力。

We expect to be significantly profitable in 2025. We did not start spending money on advertising in advance of cost savings. We've gone through several restructurings in 2024. And then we had an especially painful one at the beginning of 2025 because we wanted to put all the chips in the table on growth and to spend less on staffing. Coupling that with the Zillow partnership has just given us more room to invest in driving demand.

我們預計 2025 年將大幅獲利。我們並沒有為了節省成本而提前開始花錢做廣告。我們在 2024 年經歷了幾次重組。然後，我們在 2025 年初經歷了特別痛苦的時期，因為我們希望將所有籌碼都押在成長上，並減少在人員配備方面的支出。再加上與 Zillow 的合作，我們就有了更多的投資空間來推動需求。

And when you pair that with 25% more agents when we think those agents are better, we've got good prospects here to make money and to take share.

當我們將代理商數量與我們認為更優秀的 25% 的代理商數量相結合時，我們就有很好的前景來賺錢並佔據市場份額。

I would just add that in terms of marketing expenses, we do have marketing expenses up about $15 million in the first quarter of the year, but we don't expect as large increases as we get into the second, third, and fourth quarters of the year.

我想補充一點，就行銷費用而言，今年第一季我們的行銷費用確實增加了約 1500 萬美元，但我們預計第二、第三和第四季的增幅不會那麼大。

Okay. But there would be increases on a year-on-year basis. Is that a fair assumption then?

好的。但同比來看會有所增加。那麼這是一個合理的假設嗎？

It depends on the mix of advertising, but generally, yeah, that's what you should expect.

這取決於廣告的組合，但一般來說，是的，這就是你應該期待的。

Okay. And then in terms of the full-year profitability, either EBITDA, free cash flow, any guideposts there in terms of the magnitude? Or what's the right way to think about that?

好的。那麼就全年獲利能力而言，無論是 EBITDA 還是自由現金流，在規模方面有什麼指導嗎？或者說正確的思考方式是什麼？

Well, we've characterized it as significant adjusted EBITDA. So we're not looking to make $300,000 in adjusted EBITDA. We want to make millions in adjusted EBITDA.

嗯，我們將其描述為重大調整後的 EBITDA。因此，我們不打算賺取 30 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們希望調整後的 EBITDA 達到數百萬。

John Campbell, Stephens Inc.

約翰坎貝爾，史蒂芬斯公司

So it looks like on the lead agent count metric, I mean, that's obviously a quarterly average. If I take the 4Q number and compare it to 2Q, that's up like 12%. Glenn, I think you mentioned in the press release agents were up 25% from a six months ago period. I think that's probably that you ended the year a good bit higher amount of agents.

因此，從主要代理數量指標來看，這顯然是一個季度平均值。如果我將第四季的數字與第二季的數字進行比較，就會發現成長了 12%。格倫，我想您在新聞稿中提到代理商的數量比六個月前增加了 25%。我認為這可能是因為你們今年年底的代理商數量會多一些。

Hoping you can maybe expand on this maybe for this one time to kind of help square us up what your current lead agent count is today and kind of where that stood or maybe where that stood exiting last year.

希望您能就此進行擴展，也許這一次，可以幫助我們了解您目前的主要代理商數量以及現狀，或者去年退出時的情況。

Yeah. So in our prepared remarks, we were citing numbers hot off the press, so as of the end of this past week. So we were comparing the end of last week to our average in Q3. And the reason we did that is just because, yes, we hired significantly in Q4, but that continued through the first two months of Q1.

是的。因此，在我們準備好的發言中，我們引用了剛剛公佈的數據，即截至上週結束的數據。因此，我們將上週結束的情況與第三季的平均值進行了比較。我們這樣做的原因只是因為，是的，我們在第四季度招募了大量員工，但這種情況一直持續到第一季的前兩個月。

And we've just been more successful than we'd hoped at bringing on agents and especially at bringing on really good agents. They're outperforming our tenure agents at key points in the funnel, the two most important being meeting customers and getting winning offers. So that's the color, is that we're in excess of 2,200 as of last Sunday, and in Q3, it averaged 1,757. And if you do the math on that, it comes out to about a 25% increase.

我們在招募經紀人方面，尤其是在招募真正優秀的經紀人方面，取得了比我們預期更大的成功。他們在通路的關鍵點上表現優於我們的長期代理，其中最重要的兩個點是會見客戶和獲得中標報價。這就是顏色，截至上週日，我們已經超過 2,200，而在第三季度，平均為 1,757。如果你計算一下，你會發現增幅約 25%。

Okay, that's very helpful. Thank you for that. And then just help remind us, typical turnaround time. I know as you hired agents in the past, you had to go through the training. I mean, there was a longer ramp-up cycle. It seems like with these agents, these are hot and ready to go, but it seems like maybe even in that sense, you would still have to have maybe a couple of months before they actually start to generate revenue.

好的，這非常有幫助。謝謝你。然後只是幫助提醒我們，典型的周轉時間。我知道，當你過去僱用代理人時，你必須接受訓練。我的意思是，有一個更長的上升週期。看起來這些代理商都很熱門並且隨時可以投入運營，但似乎即使從這個意義上來說，你仍然需要等待幾個月的時間才能真正開始產生收入。

Is that broadly correct?

這大體上正確嗎？

It is. So there were two factors that led to long ramp times for agents. One is if you hire novice agents, they just need to learn their craft. That is less relevant now because we are hiring such a high proportion of experienced successful agents. We can recruit agents for many brokerage at any level of tenure.

這是。因此有兩個因素導致代理商的上線時間過長。一是如果你僱用新手代理，他們只需要學習他們的技能。現在這已經不那麼重要了，因為我們僱用了大量經驗豐富的成功代理商。我們可以為許多經紀公司招募各種任期的代理人。

The second factor is just the sales cycle being six months. So those agents will bring a few deals over on their own, but they're going to connect to our website and all the demand that brings, and that takes time just because those customers have to find a house, get an offer one and then close on it. So it just takes four to six months.

第二個因素是銷售週期僅六個月。因此，這些代理商會自行帶來一些交易，但他們會連接到我們的網站並處理由此帶來的所有需求，而這需要時間，因為這些客戶必須找到房子，獲得報價，然後完成交易。所以只需要四到六個月。

Okay. That's great. If I could squeeze in one more. Chris, on the rentals business, you mentioned 3x profit relative to last year. That's, I think, north of $13.5 million, $14 million, something like that. So that's great.

好的。那太棒了。如果我能再擠進一個。克里斯，關於租賃業務，你提到利潤比去年增加了 3 倍。我認為，這個數字大約是 1,350 萬美元、1,400 萬美元或類似的金額。這太棒了。

On the revenue side, maybe I'm hoping that you can maybe help square us up there as well. I just don't know. I mean you're sitting here at $200 million or so of revenue exiting the year. If that's a 90% drop or if it's something far larger than that. Any kind of sense at this point?

在收入方面，也許我希望您也可以幫助我們解決這個問題。我只是不知道。我的意思是，今年你的收入約為 2 億美元。如果下降幅度達到 90% 或更大的話。此時有什麼感覺嗎？

Yeah, I'll try to give you at least a direction here. The main reason to be a little bit cautious is, of course, we haven't fully launched the partnership. So we'll learn a lot once things are up and running. But the digital services portion of our revenue, which was about a third of that overall revenue, those businesses are being shut down entirely.

是的，我會嘗試至少在這裡給你一個方向。當然，謹慎一點的主要原因是，我們還沒有完全啟動合作關係。因此，一旦一切順利，我們就會學到很多。但我們收入中的數位服務部分（約佔總收入的三分之一）的業務正在完全關閉。

And then just in terms of the remainder of the business, the core advertising business, you should expect because we're being paid on a per lead basis. It's also down meaningfully from where it was before. So I know that's not a lot of detail here, but you should expect revenue down meaningfully but not 90%.

至於剩餘的業務，即核心廣告業務，你應該預料到，因為我們是按每次銷售線索獲得報酬的。與之前相比，它也大幅下降了。所以我知道這裡沒有太多細節，但你應該預期收入會大幅下降，但不會下降 90%。

And we do think -- and what's the most important thing here is that we do think that this is going to end up being better for consumers because we'll be able to show more inventory but will also help drive more profit dollars.

我們確實認為——這裡最重要的是，我們確實認為這最終會對消費者有利，因為我們將能夠展示更多的庫存，同時也有助於帶來更多的利潤。

Can I just add to that, Chris? I just want to be clear on one point that, yes, it will be less revenue because Zillow is the one handling the cost of sale. But we expect to run a larger marketplace, generating more leads. If we just wanted to squeeze the business where it's a declining business, but we're going to get more profit out of it, we could have done that on our own.

我可以補充一點嗎，克里斯？我只想明確一點，是的，收入會減少，因為 Zillow 負責處理銷售成本。但我們希望經營一個更大的市場，產生更多的潛在客戶。如果我們只是想擠壓正在下滑的業務，但又想從中獲得更多利潤，我們自己就能做到這一點。

But getting more rental listings on our site, building a larger marketplace on Apartment Guide and Rent.com, we really think there's growth there. So it will be on a smaller basis. But going forward, we expect those sites to grow, the leads they generate to grow and the revenue to grow. And with that, the profit.

但是，透過在我們的網站上添加更多的租賃列表，在 Apartment Guide 和 Rent.com 上建立更大的市場，我們確實認為那裡會有成長。因此規模會較小。但展望未來，我們預期這些網站將會發展，它們產生的潛在客戶將會成長，營收也會成長。就這樣，就有了利潤。

Dae Lee, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Dae Lee。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I have one. You talked about market share being slightly year over year in 4Q, but I'm curious if your Next markets showed different trends, especially the relatively older Next markets.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個。您談到第四季度的市佔率同比略有增長，但我很好奇您的 Next 市場是否表現出不同的趨勢，尤其是相對較老的 Next 市場。

And when you compare the new Next markets that you launched later in the year versus the older ones, are there any key differences across those two cohorts? And if you're gaining share in the older Next markets, would that be a good indication of how much share you could gain in the new markets as well?

當您將今年稍後推出的新 Next 市場與舊市場進行比較時，這兩個群體之間是否存在任何關鍵差異？如果您在較舊的 Next 市場中獲得份額，這是否可以很好地表明您在新市場中也能獲得多少份額？

Chris, do you want me to do that or do you want to take it?

克里斯，你想讓我這麼做還是你想自己接受？

Sure, why don't you take it, and I'll add commentary.

當然，你為什麼不接受它，我會添加評論。

Yeah. I think the answer here is going to be frustrating that we're generally encouraged by the success that the first Next markets have had, especially in the high end, but we aren't reporting different segments of market share, where we say, here's the market share of San Francisco, here's the market share of LA. Those were two of the first markets that transitioned. But it's fair to say that we're really glad we shifted and it's worked out well.

是的。我認為這裡的答案會令人沮喪，我們總體上受到第一批 Next 市場所取得的成功的鼓舞，特別是在高端市場，但我們並沒有報告不同的市場份額部分，我們說，這是舊金山的市場份額，這是洛杉磯的市場份額。這是最先實現轉型的兩個市場。但公平地說，我們真的很高興我們做出了改變，而且效果很好。

And the only comment I'd add is just that the agents we've been hiring through that program appear to have even stronger metrics to close customers and that will be fuel for share growth going forward.

我唯一想補充的是，我們透過該計劃聘用的代理商似乎擁有更強大的客戶成交指標，這將成為未來股價成長的動力。

Got it. And just other quick follow-up then. Is it safe for us to assume that the marketing ramp you guys are planning for 2025 is more reflective of your confidence in the Next program more so than in the macro environment? Is that the right way to think about it then?

知道了。然後就是其他快速的後續行動。我們是否可以安全地假設，你們為 2025 年規劃的營銷成長更多地反映了你們對 Next 計劃的信心，而不是宏觀環境？那麼，這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That's not exactly how I think about it. I think part of it is that we think we've got great agents who can handle the demand well, just as you said. But the other part of it is that we just lowered our spending on staffing. We've been through some restructuring because we wanted to spend more of our money on media and people, more of our money on growth. And so we felt that we wanted to compete more aggressively.

我的想法並不完全如此。我認為部分原因是我們認為我們擁有優秀的代理商，他們可以很好地滿足需求，正如您所說。但另一方面，我們剛剛降低了人員開支。我們經歷了一些重組，因為我們希望將更多的資金投入媒體和人員上，將更多的資金投入成長。因此我們覺得我們想要更積極地競爭。

I don't think the macro is meaningfully better from '25 to '24. We do think that our ability to fulfill the demand will be meaningfully better because of Next. But the other factor, even if we didn't have Next, is just that we wanted to compete harder for traffic. So you go through a year like 2024 where you see how much competitors are advertising and you just decide we've got to restructure the business to make sure that we can go toe to toe with anybody.

我認為從 25 年到 24 年宏觀情況並沒有顯著改善。我們確實認為，有了 Next，我們滿足需求的能力將會顯著提升。但另一個因素是，即使我們沒有 Next，我們也想更努力地爭取流量。因此，當你經歷像 2024 年這樣的一年時，你會看到競爭對手的廣告數量，然後你就決定我們必須重組業務，以確保我們能夠與任何人相提並論。

Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer & Co.

傑森·赫爾夫斯坦（Jason Helfstein），奧本海默公司

Just first, Glenn, just your thoughts on Clear Cooperation and if you have anything around strategy that you're kind of, I guess, planning to leverage your platform and the breadth of Redfin.

首先，格倫，您對 Clear Cooperation 有什麼看法，以及您是否有任何關於策略的想法，我想，您計劃利用您的平台和 Redfin 的廣度。

And then I have just two others. Chris, any color on the mortgage gross margin in the quarter and kind of why it was weaker sequentially? And then also I think there was a step-up in non-advertising or in the other OpEx. I don't know if that had to do with non-advertising, or just any color on that.

然後我還有另外兩個。克里斯，您能透露一下本季抵押貸款毛利率的情況嗎？為什麼比上一季下降？而且我還認為非廣告或其他營運支出也有所增加。我不知道這是否與非廣告有關，或者只是與任何顏色有關。

Sure. So I'll start with Clear Cooperation. The industry is obviously trying to figure out what to do about it. But what's notable to me is that the primary proponent of Clear Cooperation runs a website that a few years ago was 13th in the real estate category for traffic and has since fallen to 21st. So I think the argument that withholding inventory and just publishing it on one website runs counter to the scale that you see large websites having.

當然。因此，我將從「清晰的合作」開始。該行業顯然正在想辦法解決這個問題。但令我印象深刻的是，Clear Cooperation 的主要支持者經營的網站幾年前在房地產類別的流量排名中位列第 13 位，而現在已跌至第 21 位。因此，我認為保留庫存並僅在一個網站上發布的觀點與大型網站的規模背道而馳。

That trend is only moving in one direction, that there's a small number of websites that audiences are going to. And so it may be that we find new ways to be more accommodating to sellers so that they want to post their listings on our website. So I think the MLSs have already been fairly aggressive about that, where you can put a listing upcoming soon, you can withhold the photos, you can say you want it visible only to brokers.

這種趨勢只朝著一個方向發展，即觀眾會造訪的網站數量很少。因此，我們可能會找到新的方法來更好地滿足賣家的需求，以便他們願意在我們的網站上發布他們的商品資訊。所以我認為 MLS 在這方面已經相當積極了，你可以發布即將發布的房源，你可以保留照片，你可以說你希望只有經紀人才能看到它。

So I still think that this is just not in consumer's best interest and as the market softens, where it gets harder to sell a house. We already noted in our remarks that days on market is up 15%. It just seems harder to make the argument that you want to debut a listing without getting maximum exposure.

所以我仍然認為這不符合消費者的最佳利益，而且隨著市場疲軟，賣房子會變得越來越難。我們已經在評論中指出，上市天數增加了 15%。但如果你想要在不獲得最大曝光的情況下推出新產品，那麼要說服他們這樣做似乎更加困難。

Chris, do you want to comment on mortgage margin?

克里斯，你想評論一下抵押貸款保證金嗎？

Sure. So mortgage gross margin was down sequentially, up year over year, and that's generally what I would expect into the fourth quarter. The year-over-year increase was from about 4.6% to 10.9%. Typically, what we see is a decrease sequentially there just because with lower volume in the fourth quarter. The fixed cost, even in the operations of that business, weigh on gross margin and so that's what keeps things down.

當然。因此，抵押貸款毛利率環比下降，年比上升，這基本上符合我對第四季的預期。年增約4.6%至10.9%。通常，我們看到的是環比下降，因為第四季度的交易量較低。即使在業務運營中，固定成本也會對毛利率產生影響，因此導致業績下滑。

And then specifically, I think you were asking about mortgage G&A expenses. And on a year-over-year basis, those were up. But mostly that's a comparison to Q4 2023 where we had a reduction in stock-based comp in the fourth quarter of that year. And so things are more flat than they would appear. It's just that we had received a benefit last year as we had a reduction in stock-based comp in that period.

具體來說，我認為您詢問的是抵押貸款的一般及行政費用。與去年同期相比，這些數字都有所上升。但這主要是與 2023 年第四季進行比較，當年第四季我們的股票薪酬有所減少。因此，事情比看起來的要平坦得多。只是我們去年獲得了一筆福利，因為那段時期我們的股票薪資減少了。

(Operator Instructions) Ygal Arounian, Citi.

（操作員指示）Ygal Arounian，花旗。

First, just on the Zillow partnership and traffic for rentals. On Redfin.com, since you've integrated rentals on to your site, how much share of the traffic is towards rentals, if there's a way to break that out? And how much of a benefit do you think you could see there specifically as you make this transition and get more rental inventory?

首先，僅關注 Zillow 合作夥伴關係和租賃流量。在 Redfin.com 上，自從你們將租賃功能整合到網站上以來，有多少流量來自租賃，可以具體算一下嗎？當您進行這種轉變並獲得更多租賃庫存時，您認為您能獲得多少具體的好處？

And then on the agent count, do you expect any further attrition? Do you think that the attrition issue is just kind of finished at this point? And great to see the strength in the hiring coming through so far. What are the plans for the remainder of the year in terms of hiring? Or do you think you're kind of closer to where you want to be at the moment?

那麼就代理商數量而言，您預計還會有進一步的人員流失嗎？您認為人員流失問題到現在就解決了嗎？很高興看到到目前為止招聘工作進展順利。今年剩餘時間的招募計畫是什麼？還是您認為您目前已經接近自己想要達到的目標了？

Sure. So we haven't released segmentation on rentals audience versus for-sale audience, but about one in five homebuyers is also looking at rentals. And I think the larger issue for us is just that when Google and other search engines evaluate real estate websites, they look at general authority in the category instead of separately evaluating whether you're good for for-sale search or rental search. And so we think that it has been a significant issue in 2024 that other real estate websites had more rental listings.

當然。因此，我們尚未發布租賃受眾與待售受眾的細分，但大約五分之一的購屋者也正在考慮租賃。我認為對我們來說更大的問題是，當Google和其他搜尋引擎評估房地產網站時，他們會查看該類別的一般權威性，而不是分別評估您是否適合銷售搜尋或租賃搜尋。因此，我們認為，其他房地產網站擁有更多租賃房源將成為 2024 年的重大問題。

We could see that very clearly when realtor.com signed a Zillow partnership. And so just looking at that hockey stick in 2024 made us feel like we've got to do something about our inventory and it makes us fairly bullish about what will happen in 2025. Matching another competitor, you may not get the same gain, but we do feel like we've been competing with one hand tied behind our back.

當 realtor.com 與 Zillow 簽署合作協議時，我們可以非常清楚地看到這一點。因此，只要看看 2024 年的曲棍球棒走勢，我們就覺得必須對庫存採取一些措施，這也讓我們對 2025 年將發生的事情相當樂觀。與另一個競爭對手相比，你可能無法獲得相同的收益，但我們確實感覺自己一直在束手無策地競爭。

So we're excited about the traffic benefit. We think it will be immediate for rentals. And over time, we think we will also do better just generally in traffic. Coupling that with advertising, it should be a good year for traffic.

因此，我們對交通效益感到非常興奮。我們認為這對租賃來說將會是立竿見影的。隨著時間的推移，我們認為我們在交通方面也會做得更好。再加上廣告，今年應該是流量豐收的一年。

On attrition, it's always hard to predict, but there is a pronounced effect when you tell hundreds of agents that you're not getting a salary anymore. I think it was especially strong in our most long-established markets just because you give agents a 3% raise every year. So people who had been in, say, a market like Seattle had really high salaries relative to the rest of our workforce. And when we transition those markets, some of the agents are more likely to leave and with them their customers.

對於人員流失，總是很難預測，但當你告訴數百名代理商你不再領薪水時，會產生明顯的影響。我認為在我們最成熟的市場中這種表現尤其強勁，因為你每年都會給代理商加薪 3%。因此，與我們其他勞動力相比，在西雅圖這樣的市場工作過的人的薪水確實很高。當我們轉型這些市場時，有些代理商很可能會離開，他們的客戶也會跟著離開。

We have not seen much attrition since. It's a good pay plan. We are able to recruit agents quite effectively, and the agents who have remained have been our highest performing agents, many of whom just say, I am so excited about this plan.

自此以後我們就沒再看到太多的人員流失。這是一個很好的薪酬計劃。我們能夠非常有效地招募代理商，留下來的代理商都是我們表現最好的代理商，其中許多人都說，我對這個計劃感到非常興奮。

So sure, there's a one-time disruption in our sales force. It's such a big change. You have to expect that. But no, we do not expect much go-forward attrition, absent some major competitor move. We think the economics are fairly stable in the traditional brokerage industry, and then we've just got a good advantage here.

可以肯定的是，我們的銷售團隊出現了一次混亂。這是一個巨大的改變。你必須預料到這一點。但是，如果沒有重大競爭對手的舉動，我們預計未來不會出現太大的人員流失。我們認為傳統經紀行業的經濟狀況相當穩定，我們在這裡具有很大的優勢。

And then your final question was about hiring. We're going to keep hiring. Some of that is because we still feel like our for-sale demand is undermonetized and that if we had more agents and fewer customers per agent, we would increase close rate and having an all-variable plan gives us some latitude to do that. I think it also just gives us some latitude to continue to curate our agents. The whole reason you have a website that decided to hire its own agents is because we think we can be the only brand, the only real estate destination where you come to the website and you know you're going to get somebody good.

您的最後一個問題是關於招募的。我們將繼續招募。部分原因是我們仍然覺得我們的銷售需求沒有貨幣化，如果我們有更多的代理商，而每個代理商的客戶更少，我們就會提高成交率，而全變量計劃會給我們一些自由來做到這一點。我認為這也給了我們一些自由來繼續管理我們的代理商。您決定聘請自己的代理商建立網站的全部原因是，我們認為我們可以成為唯一的品牌、唯一的房地產目的地，只要您造訪我們的網站，您就知道您會找到優秀的代理商。

It's not some random dingbat. It's someone we have hired to be the absolute best for that particular neighborhood. So continuing to hire just lets us be really aggressive about monitoring performance and making sure that every agent is delivering on the Redfin promise.

這不是什麼無意義的玩意兒。我們聘請了一位最適合該社區的人才。因此，繼續招募讓我們能夠積極地監控績效並確保每個代理商都兌現 Redfin 的承諾。

Great. If I could squeeze in one follow-up on that. You talked about the -- already seeing better demand even before you stepped up on the marketing spend in January. We also saw January, I think, was the lowest month on record of home sale -- of pending home sales since NAR sort of keeping track of that.

偉大的。如果我可以擠出時間跟進的話。您談到——在一月份加大行銷支出之前就已經看到了更好的需求。我們也看到，我認為 1 月是自 NAR 開始追蹤房屋銷售情況以來，房屋銷售量（待售房屋銷售量）有記錄以來的最低月份。

So you kind of put those two points together, the stronger, bigger sales force, the step-up in marketing and it does feel like it's going to be a year with much kind of bigger, more meaningful share gain. Is that the right way that you guys are thinking about it that way?

所以，把這兩點放在一起，更強大、更大的銷售隊伍，行銷的加強，感覺今年將會是份額增長更大、更有意義的一年。你們這樣想對嗎？

Well, we've learned to be careful about counting chickens before they hatch, but that's definitely the plan. And just to provide more color, I think this will also give Jason some confidence since he asked about Clear Cooperation. Listing demand has been especially strong for us. So that gives us more leverage in the industry.

好吧，我們已經學會了在未孵化之前就小心地數雞，但這絕對是計劃。為了提供更多的信息，我認為這也會給傑森一些信心，因為他詢問了有關清晰合作的問題。對我們來說，上市需求尤其強勁。這讓我們在業界擁有了更大的影響力。

We're not just a pure website. We have our own listings. If other brokers want to withhold listings at some level, you can only fight fire with fire.

我們不僅僅是一個純粹的網站。我們有自己的清單。如果其他經紀商想在某種程度上阻止上市，你只能以牙還牙。

But it also just speaks to, I think, there's some secular affinity for the brand quite apart from just macroeconomics. People who are feeling the pinch want a lower listing fee. And so for whatever reason, buy-side demand is mostly tracked with website traffic, but sell-side demand seems to track more just with whether consumers are more aggressive about wanting to get a better deal.

但我認為，這也說明，除了宏觀經濟因素外，人們對該品牌還具有某種長期的親和力。感到拮据的人們希望降低上市費用。因此，無論出於何種原因，買方需求主要透過網站流量來跟踪，而賣方需求似乎更多地只是透過消費者是否更積極地想要獲得更好的交易來追蹤。

John Colantuoni, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰·科蘭圖尼。

I wanted to ask about the economics of Redfin Next. Can you talk a little bit more about what portion of these agents are closing Redfin-generated leads versus leads they generated themselves, how that ratio has impacted gross margins, if at all, and any adjustments you plan on making to the incentive structure to help bring real estate economics back to your targeted range? And I have a follow-up.

我想問一下 Redfin Next 的經濟狀況。您能否進一步談談這些代理商中有多少比例是透過 Redfin 獲得的銷售線索，有多少比例是他們自己獲得的，這個比例對毛利率有何影響（如果有的話），以及您計劃對激勵結構進行哪些調整，以幫助房地產經濟回到您的目標範圍？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. I'll start. Chris, you can finish. We've already made the only adjustment that we anticipate for this year. We said we eliminated some entitlements like vacation pay, and that was just to offset some other costs that were slightly higher than expected that resulted in one-time adjusted EBITDA impacts in Q4.

當然。我先開始。克里斯，你可以完成。我們已經做出了今年預計的唯一調整。我們說過，我們取消了休假工資等一些福利，這只是為了抵消一些略高於預期的其他成本，這些成本導致了第四季度一次性調整後的 EBITDA 影響。

But generally, agents earn a much higher split when it's self-sourced business. We basically operate like a traditional brokerage there where we don't offer much competitive advantage to the agent, and therefore, we don't generate much gross profit from those sales. The mix between self-sourced sales and Redfin-sourced sales has mostly been as expected.

但一般來說，當涉及自營業務時，代理商可以獲得更高的分成。我們基本上像那裡的傳統經紀公司一樣運營，我們不會為代理商提供太多的競爭優勢，因此，我們不會從這些銷售中獲得太多的毛利。自營銷售和 Redfin 銷售之間的組合基本上符合預期。

The gross margin has, as a result, mostly been as expected, sort of accepting some of the transition costs that we already discussed. So we're happy with that. And the way that we think about it is if this lets us recruit an agent who's better at closing Redfin-sourced business who can do that segment of the business at a higher margin, we're basically earning more gross profit from our online audience. And then we would treat any other self-sourced sales that the agent brings as doing no harm.

因此，毛利率基本上符合預期，在某種程度上接受了我們已經討論過的一些轉型成本。所以我們對此感到高興。我們的想法是，如果這讓我們能夠招募到一位更擅長完成 Redfin 業務的經紀人，並且能夠以更高的利潤率完成這部分業務，那麼我們基本上就能從我們的線上觀眾那裡獲得更多的毛利。然後，我們會將代理商帶來的任何其他自營銷售視為無害。

Our goal is let them do those deals. We should make a few shekels from it. But otherwise, what we're really after is maximizing the amount of gross profit we can generate from a given online audience on Redfin.com.

我們的目標是讓他們達成這些交易。我們應該從中賺到一些錢。但除此之外，我們真正追求的是最大限度地提高從 Redfin.com 上的特定線上受眾那裡獲得的毛利。

Chris, what would you add to that?

克里斯，您對此還有什麼補充嗎？

Agree with everything you said, and I would just add that we've also continued to look for expense reductions outside of agent pay. We have fewer managers this year than we did last year. We're expecting continued improvements in terms of the support staff efficiency that will help drive gross margin improvements there also.

同意您說的一切，我只想補充一點，我們也一直在尋求經紀人薪酬之外的開支削減。今年我們的管理階層比去年少。我們期望支援人員效率能夠持續提高，這也將有助於推動毛利率的提高。

And so I can enumerate a couple of others in a similar kind of vein, but we're really focused on making sure we have great economics for our customers and the agents, but then also saving where we can to drive profits for the business.

因此，我可以列舉幾個類似的其他例子，但我們真正關注的是確保為我們的客戶和代理商帶來良好的經濟效益，同時盡可能地節省開支，為企業帶來利潤。

And just to build on that, I know you have a follow-on, but that's been maybe an unanticipated benefit. We don't anticipate doing anything in 2025. But when you recruit more entrepreneurial agents and they see the level of support they get so that they can double or triple their volume, they appreciate that yet still the incentives are so well aligned that they have asked, could we lower the per transaction support cost?

在此基礎上，我知道您還有後續行動，但這可能是意想不到的好處。我們預計 2025 年不會採取任何行動。但是，當你招募更多的創業代理商，他們看到自己獲得的支持水平，從而可以使其交易量增加一倍或兩倍時，他們會很感激，但激勵措施仍然如此一致，以至於他們會問，我們能否降低每筆交易的支持成本？

I'm not sure I need a manager who's only managing 10 other people. I'm not sure I need this deal coordinator at this level. And so over time, we just expect that we will get more leverage over our support costs, which is great. And it used to just feel that our agents weren't aligned with that and now they very much are. And it just gives us confidence on a go-forward basis about long-term gross margin.

我不確定我是否需要一個只管理 10 個人的經理。我不確定我是否需要這個級別的交易協調員。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們將在支援成本方面獲得更大的槓桿作用，這很好。以前我們總是感覺到我們的代理商與此不一致，但現在他們已經完全符合了。這讓我們對長期毛利率充滿信心。

What's your follow-on though? I'm sorry.

那你的後續計畫是什麼？對不起。

Yes, I just had a quick one about -- and sorry if I missed this, maybe you could unpack the transition costs a bit more and the main areas of upside in cost relative to your expectations.

是的，我只是快速地問了一句——如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，也許您可以進一步解釋過渡成本，以及相對於您的預期，成本上漲的主要領域。

Sure. Chris, do you want to go first?

當然。克里斯，你想先走嗎？

Sure. So I think the simplest description is the costs were higher than we expected. This is just mostly related to program mechanics as we rolled that program out across the whole country. We can see that just some of the base costs associated with agents month to month, quarter to quarter were somewhat higher than we expected. And so that's what you see reflected in those measures in the fourth quarter.

當然。所以我認為最簡單的描述就是成本高於我們的預期。這主要與程序機制有關，因為我們在全國範圍內推廣該計劃。我們可以看到，與代理商相關的部分基本成本逐月、逐季都比我們預期的要高一些。這就是您在第四季度的這些措施中所看到的反映。

And as we can see that coming on, as Glenn mentioned earlier, we made additional adjustments in terms of the program to drive to the kinds of profits we wanted for 2025.

正如我們所看到的，正如格倫之前提到的，我們對計劃進行了額外的調整，以實現我們期望的 2025 年利潤。

Tom White, D.A. Davidson.

湯姆懷特、D.A.戴維森。

Just one for me. Glenn, maybe a follow-up to your comments about your market share trends in your earliest Redfin Next markets. It seemed maybe you sort of implied that in kind of the higher end markets, maybe your share gains were most pronounced.

對我來說只有一個。格倫，也許您可以跟進一下您對最早的 Redfin Next 市場中的市場份額趨勢的評論。似乎您暗示在高端市場中您的份額增長最為明顯。

I was just curious if -- as you look kind of across the country and the more recently rolled out markets, are there any kind of structural factors or sort of unique elements about those other markets? Maybe it's different home values, maybe just awareness of the Redfin brand, I don't know, that might cause them to have a different kind of share trajectory than the first four markets or whatever?

我只是好奇——當你放眼全國和最近推出的市場時，這些其他市場是否存在某種結構性因素或獨特元素？也許是不同的房屋價值，也許只是對 Redfin 品牌的認知，我不知道，這可能會導致他們的股票走勢與前四個市場不同，或者其他什麼？

Sure. Well, I already mentioned one, which is markets where Redfin has been a long time tended to have agents with higher salaries. And at some level, that had become economically irrational. And so having those agents turnover was in part unavoidable. So there's going to be a onetime transition impact on market share in those markets.

當然。嗯，我已經提到了一點，那就是 Redfin 長期存在的市場往往擁有薪水更高的經紀人。從某種程度上來說，這在經濟上已經變得不合理了。因此，這些代理商的流動在某種程度上是不可避免的。因此，這將對這些市場的市場份額產生一次性的轉型影響。

The other factor is just about low home price market. So Redfin prior to Next was a good deal for agents selling $400,000 homes, and it wasn't as good of a deal for agents selling $4 million homes. So in a market like Chicago, there was more concern about Redfin Next than there was in a market like San Francisco. And yet, I just have to tell you that agents were so upset about it six months ago and they're so happy about it now.

另一個因素是低房價市場。因此，Next 之前的 Redfin 對於銷售 40 萬美元房屋的經紀人來說是一項不錯的交易，但對於銷售 400 萬美元房屋的經紀人來說，這並不是一項好交易。因此，在芝加哥這樣的市場，人們對 Redfin Next 的關注度比舊金山這樣的市場更高。然而，我必須告訴你，六個月前經紀人對此非常不滿，但現在他們很高興。

No general statement is universally true. There were people who were fine six months ago. There are people who are probably still grumping now. But man, what a difference just getting a few commission checks has made even in markets that have lower home prices.

沒有任何一般性陳述是放諸四海皆準的。有些人六個月前還好好的。有些人現在可能還在抱怨。但是，即使在房價較低的市場，僅僅獲得幾張佣金支票也會帶來很大的不同。

So I know that life is unpredictable. You can't count your chickens, as we said, until they hatch. But it felt pretty good, man. It felt pretty good.

所以我知道生活是不可預測的。正如我們所說，天下沒有不散的筵席。但感覺非常好，夥計。感覺非常好。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And now I'd like to turn the floor back over to Glenn Kelman for closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在我想把發言權交還給 Glenn Kelman 來做最後評論。

We're going all out, baby. Thanks for coming to the call. We appreciate how many of you show up and now we're going to get back to selling houses. Have a great February and March.

我們會全力以赴的，寶貝。感謝您接聽電話。我們感謝你們的到來，現在我們要回去賣房子了。祝您二月和三月愉快。

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。