Redfin Corp (RDFN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Redfin Corporation quarter three 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

At this time, it is my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Meg Nunnally, Head of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在，我很高興將發言權交給東道主投資者關係主管梅格·納納利 (Meg Nunnally)。女士，地板是你的了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; Ms. Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的第三季財務業績電話會議。我是梅格‧納納利 (Meg Nunnally)，Redfin 投資人關係主管。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長格倫凱爾曼 (Glenn Kelman)；克里斯·尼爾森女士，我們的財務長。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意，我們在今天的電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們對這些前瞻性陳述的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會產生重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com, for more information related to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and related reconciliations. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against continuing operations for the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務表現時提出非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告（可在我們的網站 Investors.redfin.com 上獲取），以了解與我們的非 GAAP 指標相關的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關調節表。除非另有說明，本次電話會議期間進行的所有比較均與去年同期的持續經營業務進行比較。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call, and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束時在我們的網站上提供準備好的講話副本，並且在電話會議後不久也將提供完整的文字記錄和音頻重播。

With that, I'll call over to Glenn.

說完，我會打電話給格倫。

Thanks, Meg, and howdy, everyone. Redfin's third quarter revenues grew 3% year-over-year to $278 million, in the middle of the range that we discussed on our last call. Our adjusted EBITDA profit of $4 million were at the bottom of our guidance range, in part due to $4 million of onetime expenses that we didn't anticipate in our guidance.

謝謝梅格，大家好。Redfin 第三季營收年增 3%，達到 2.78 億美元，處於我們上次電話會議討論的範圍的中間位置。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤為 400 萬美元，處於我們指導範圍的底部，部分原因是我們在指導中沒有預期到 400 萬美元的一次性費用。

From the second quarter of 2024 to the third, the share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents fell by 1 basis point. Year-over-year, third quarter share fell by 2 basis points.

從 2024 年第二季度到第三季度，我們自己的經紀人以及透過推薦給我們的合作夥伴經紀人代理的房屋銷售份額下降了 1 個基點。第三季市佔率年減 2 個基點。

In our previous call, we said we'd be roughly breakeven for the full year, and now our fourth quarter guidance has set the boundaries of that range, 2024 adjusted EBITDA loss between $15 million and $22 million.

在我們先前的電話會議中，我們表示全年將大致實現盈虧平衡，現在我們的第四季度指引已經設定了該範圍的界限，2024 年調整後EBITDA 損失在1500 萬美元至2200 萬美元之間。

fiscal year loss is larger than we expected. August and September, mortgage and brokerage sales were $7 million lower than we forecast. When rates fell in August, we didn't count on a better housing market, but we also didn't expect it to get worse. We didn't forecast about $2 million in onetime costs for the rapid transition to Redfin Next, our plan to replace agent salaries with higher bonuses or $1 million of onetime costs from the integration of Rent.

財年虧損超出我們的預期。8 月和 9 月，抵押貸款和經紀銷售額比我們的預測低 700 萬美元。當八月利率下降時，我們並沒有指望房地產市場會更好，但我們也沒有預料到它會變得更糟。我們沒有預測快速過渡到 Redfin Next 會產生約 200 萬美元的一次性成本，我們計劃用更高的獎金取代代理商工資，也沒有預測整合 Rent 會產生 100 萬美元的一次性成本。

In a year when we believe our competitors' aggregate ad spending hit historic highs while U.S. home sales hit historic lows, we're glad to be coming out of 2024 with likely undiminished market share, a better sales force, and a cost structure that gives us room to go on the attack. But still, I owe our shareholders an apology. We moved heaven and earth to make money in 2024, but we fell short of our goal. We'll keep driving toward profit.

在我們相信競爭對手的總廣告支出創下歷史新高而美國房屋銷售創下歷史低點的一年裡，我們很高興在2024 年結束時擁有可能不減的市場份額、更好的銷售隊伍以及能夠讓我們的成本結構我們有繼續進攻的空間。但我仍然欠我們的股東一個道歉。2024年，我們竭盡全力賺錢，但我們沒有達到目標。我們將繼續追求利潤。

Our 2024 profits will be an improvement of about $125 million over 2022, when US existing home sales were 20% higher than forecast for 2024. Over the past year, almost every dollar of revenue growth has fallen to the bottom line, and now we're preparing to grow. Rising brokerage close rates from what we believe are industry-leading mortgage and title attach rates should let us monetize an online audience better than any other real estate site. Already, sales execution is driving what we expect to be significant October share gains with momentum carrying through to November.

我們 2024 年的利潤將比 2022 年增加約 1.25 億美元，屆時美國現有房屋銷售量將比 2024 年的預測高出 20%。在過去的一年裡，幾乎每一塊錢的收入成長都跌入了底線，現在我們正準備成長。我們認為，經紀成交率不斷上升，抵押貸款和產權附加率處於行業領先水平，這應該會讓我們比任何其他房地產網站更好地透過線上受眾獲利。銷售執行已經推動了我們預計 10 月份額的大幅成長，並將這種勢頭延續到 11 月。

Pairing our sales machine with more advertising should let us grow faster in 2025. Redfin.com's third quarter visitors fell 4% year-over-year. As the housing market shows signs of life, we plan to increase ad spending significantly from 2024 to 2025. We'll also invest in extending our technology's core competitive advantages, at guiding online visitors to listings they'll love, and scheduling home tours for customers ahead of other buyers, at identifying serious home seekers in need of service.

將我們的銷售機器與更多廣告結合應該會讓我們在 2025 年成長得更快。Redfin.com 第三季訪客量年減 4%。隨著房地產市場出現復甦跡象，我們計劃從 2024 年到 2025 年大幅增加廣告支出。我們還將投資擴展我們技術的核心競爭優勢，引導線上訪客找到他們喜歡的房源，在其他買家之前為客戶安排家庭參觀，識別需要服務的認真購房者。

Already this month, we started to bid more for online visitors because of our increasing effectiveness at selling homes, mortgages and title service. Until October, we didn't account for mortgage and title profits when deciding how much to pay to meet a home buyer.

本月，我們開始對線上訪客提高出價，因為我們在銷售房屋、抵押貸款和產權服務方面的效率不斷提高。直到十月份，我們在決定支付多少錢來滿足購房者時都沒有考慮抵押貸款和產權利潤。

Our confidence that we can deliver better service to online homebuyers is based in part on the rapid expansion of Redfin Next, our plan to pay agents larger bonuses in lieu of salaries, which first launched in January to four markets responsible for 17% of our 2023 brokerage revenues. This percentage grew to 30% in May and to 74% in August until we completed the rollout last month.

我們對能夠為線上購屋者提供更好服務的信心部分基於Redfin Next 的快速擴張，我們計劃向代理商支付更高的獎金以代替工資，該計劃於1 月份首次向四個市場推出，占我們2023年收入的17%經紀收入。這個百分比在 5 月增加到 30%，在 8 月增加到 74%，直到我們上個月完成部署。

Our confidence in Next isn't based on theory, but on results. Comparing 2023 to 2024 in the four initial Next markets, the customers we met from January to June 2024 were 21% more likely to buy a home from us within 90 days of that first month. Other markets in those months also improved close rates, but only by 7%. In that same time period, close rates for luxury home buyers increased 79% in the four pilot Next markets compared to 28% in other markets.

我們對 Next 的信心不是基於理論，而是基於結果。與2023 年至2024 年在四個最初的Next 市場相比，我們在2024 年1 月至6 月期間遇到的客戶在第一個月的90 天內從我們這裡購買房屋的可能性增加了21% 。那幾個月的其他市場也提高了成交率，但僅提高了 7%。在同一時期，四個試點 Next 市場的豪華購屋者成交率成長了 79%，而其他市場的成交率則為 28%。

Higher close rates have been one source of share gains in Next -- excuse me, in Next markets, but another is our agent census. From the announcement of Redfin Next in October 2023 to June 2024, the four original pilot markets increased their agent census 22%. And it isn't hard to see why. Bigger bonuses let us compete for talent with fewer financial constraints because we no longer pay agent salaries.

更高的成交率是 Next 市佔率成長的一個來源——對不起，是 Next 市場的市佔率成長，但另一個來源是我們的代理商人口普查。從2023年10月宣布Redfin Next到2024年6月，四個原始試點市場的代理商普查增加了22%。不難看出原因。更高的獎金讓我們能夠在更少的財務約束下競爭人才，因為我們不再支付經紀人薪水。

Entering 2025, our brokerage's focus is on adding hundreds of high-quality agents. Our third quarter agent census, which averaged 1,757 agents, grew 1% year-over-year. In October already, that year-over-year growth accelerated to 8%.

進入2025年，我們券商的重點是新增數百名優質經紀人。我們第三季的代理商普查顯示，平均有 1,757 名代理商，較去年同期成長 1%。10 月份，年成長率已加速至 8%。

The flexibility that Next gives us to hire more agents at different commission splits based on their sales experience is letting us form agent teams around our top producers. These teams give our best agents the capacity to cultivate sales from their network of hundreds or even thousands of past Redfin clients. Already in the past four months, we've hired agents into more than 50 teams and begun recruiting teammates for another 40 top producers.

Next 使我們能夠根據銷售經驗以不同的佣金比例僱用更多代理商，從而靈活地圍繞我們的頂級生產商組建代理商團隊。這些團隊使我們最好的代理商有能力從數百甚至數千名過去的 Redfin 客戶網路中培養銷售。在過去的四個月裡，我們已經為 50 多個團隊聘請了經紀人，並開始為另外 40 位頂級製作人招募隊友。

As we add hundreds of more entrepreneurial agents for the 2025 home buying season, we don't plan on adding any significant manager or support staff, which should lift gross margins. And as agents host more of their own tours and improve close rates, we can also allocate a lower percentage of revenue to the thousands of contractors who take customers on tour when a lead agent is busy.

當我們在 2025 年購屋季增加數百名創業代理商時，我們不打算增加任何重要的經理或支援人員，這應該會提高毛利率。隨著代理商自己舉辦更多的旅行並提高成交率，我們還可以將較低比例的收入分配給在首席代理商忙碌時帶客戶參觀的數千名承包商。

We expect gross margins to start increasing year-over-year in the fourth quarter, but some of that will be because gross margins are also becoming less seasonal. Next agents earnings are more volatile, limiting Redfins margins in the summer selling season and improving margins in the winter.

我們預計毛利率將在第四季開始年增，但部分原因是毛利率的季節性也減弱。接下來的代理商收入波動更大，限制了 Redfins 在夏季銷售季節的利潤率，並在冬季提高了利潤率。

Since spring 2024, investors have asked us if we expect lower fees and lower margins due to the settlement of a class action lawsuit against the National Association of Realtors. When the reforms imposed by development took effect in July and August, the multiple listing services that agents used to share listings stopped showing the commission offered to a buyer's agent for each listing.

自 2024 年春季以來，投資者一直詢問我們，由於針對全國房地產經紀人協會的集體訴訟得到和解，我們是否預計會降低費用和利潤。當開發實施的改革於七月和八月生效時，代理人用於共享房源的多重掛牌服務不再顯示為每個房源向買方代理人提供的佣金。

Most homeowners are still willing to pay the buyer's agent, but many aren't setting that agency in advance. Instead, planning to negotiate it alongside other offer terms. This by itself has been a major change. But to our surprise, the fee that is negotiated often seems nearly identical to what buyer's agents were earning before the settlement.

大多數房主仍然願意向買方代理人付費，但許多人並沒有提前指定該代理商。相反，計劃將其與其他報價條款一起進行談判。這本身就是一個重大變化。但令我們驚訝的是，協商好的費用往往與和解前買方代理人的收入幾乎相同。

These may fall when a new and potentially more competitive home buying season begins. Many of the buyers and sellers closing a sale this fall had hired an agent in the summer before the settlement had taken effect. Redfin has already sought to offer our home buying customers lower fees than other brokers. If more consumers seek better value from their broker in 2025, Redfin may expect larger share gains.

當新的、可能更具競爭力的購屋季節開始時，這些價格可能會下降。許多今年秋天完成銷售的買家和賣家都在和解協議生效前的夏季聘請了代理人。Redfin 已經尋求為我們的購屋客戶提供比其他經紀人更低的費用。如果更多的消費者在 2025 年向經紀人尋求更高的價值，Redfin 可能會獲得更大的份額收益。

And if homebuyers become more sensitive to brokerage fees, bundling mortgage and title services will become even more important. Of the brokerage customers who finance their third quarter home purchase, 27% used Redfin's lender, down from 28% in the second quarter but up from 22% in the third quarter of last year. Again, more than 60% of eligible customers used our title services which have become a significant source of profit. In January 2025, we're trying new policies to increase mortgage attach rates further.

如果購屋者對經紀費用變得更加敏感，捆綁抵押貸款和產權服務將變得更加重要。在第三季購屋融資的經紀客戶中，有 27% 使用 Redfin 的貸款機構，比例低於第二季的 28%，但高於去年第三季的 22%。同樣，超過 60% 的合格客戶使用了我們的產權服務，這已成為重要的利潤來源。2025 年 1 月，我們將嘗試新政策以進一步提高抵押貸款附加利率。

Before concluding with the discussion of the housing market, let's turn to our Rentals business, which is now competing aggressively for traffic. From April to October of this year, listings on our rentals websites, rent.com and apartmentguide.com, increased from 262,000 to about 440,000. After the rentals and for-sale traffic teams combined at the outset of the year, in August, rental traffic was flat after 17 months of decline.

在結束對房屋市場的討論之前，讓我們先談談我們的租賃業務，該業務現在正在激烈地爭奪流量。今年4月至10月，我們的租賃網站rent.com和apartmentguide.com上的房源數量從262,000增加到約440,000。年初將租賃和出售流量合併後，8 月租賃流量在經歷 17 個月的下降後持平。

We saved $10 million in 2024 expenses on personnel and technology services, which is now funding more consumer advertising. From 2023 to 2024, we expect that our rentals media spending will have increased by $3 million with an even larger increase planned for 2025. Our net bookings rose from $2.7 million in the second quarter to $6.0 million in the third.

2024 年，我們節省了 1000 萬美元的人員​​和技術服務費用，這些費用現在用於資助更多的消費者廣告。從 2023 年到 2024 年，我們預計我們的媒體租賃支出將增加 300 萬美元，並計劃在 2025 年實現更大的成長。我們的淨預訂量從第二季的 270 萬美元增加到第三季的 600 萬美元。

On the strength of improving traffic and better sales execution, we expect most of our 2025 growth to come from market share gains. But if the market keeps improving, we can grow faster. Home buying demand significantly strengthened since September 18, when the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points. Mortgage rates had already fallen in anticipation of the Fed's cut, but home buying demand has nonetheless been dreadful, leading to a new September low in the annualized rate of existing home sales, 3.8 million.

憑藉流量的改善和更好的銷售執行力，我們預計 2025 年的大部分成長將來自市場份額的成長。但如果市場不斷改善，我們就能成長得更快。自9月18日聯準會降息50個基點以來，購屋需求顯著增強。由於預期聯準會降息，房貸利率已經下降，但購屋需求仍然很糟糕，導致 9 月現房銷售年化率創下新低，為 380 萬套。

What has been even more bizarre is that, since September 18 and even through last weekend, homebuyers have been mostly undeterred by an October increase in mortgage rates. The increasing likelihood of larger tariffs and government deficits has made debt investors anxious.

更奇怪的是，自 9 月 18 日以來，甚至到上週末，購屋者大多沒有被 10 月的抵押貸款利率上漲嚇倒。關稅和政府赤字增加的可能性越來越大，令債務投資者感到焦慮。

In my 19 months -- excuse me, my 19 years of running Redfin, I've never seen homebuyers react so slowly to a rate drop that lowered monthly payments by hundreds of dollars, then so unflinching as those savings disappeared.

在我19 個月的時間裡——對不起，在我經營Redfin 的19 年裡，我從未見過購房者對利率下降反應如此緩慢，導致每月還款額減少數百美元，然後又如此堅定地讓這些儲蓄消失。

More and more, we live in our own reality, and that reality is increasingly political. In September and even in October, a common source of anxiety among homebuyers has been the election, not just higher rates. With the election now over, many people who put off plans to buy or sell a home over the last two years may have run out of reasons to wait.

我們越來越生活在自己的現實中，而這個現實越來越政治化。9月甚至10月，購屋者焦慮的一個常見原因是選舉，而不僅僅是利率上升。隨著選舉現已結束，許多過去兩年推遲購房或出售房屋計劃的人可能已經沒有理由等待了。

Home sales may increase in 2025, but the housing market and the world are so volatile that no one can say for sure. Given that uncertainty, Redfin is glad to have made our core brokerage business more flexible and to have lowered our overall employee census so we can quickly invest in advertising when we see more growth opportunities.

2025 年房屋銷售量可能會增加，但房地產市場和世界都非常不穩定，沒有人能確定。考慮到這種不確定性，Redfin 很高興讓我們的核心經紀業務變得更加靈活，並降低了我們的整體員工人口普查，以便我們在看到更多成長機會時可以快速投資於廣告。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris.

這樣，我會將電話轉給克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. Third quarter revenue was $278 million, up 3% from a year ago. This marks our third straight quarter of organic revenue growth. Gross profit of $102 million was up 4% year-over-year and total gross margin was unchanged at 37%.

謝謝，格倫。第三季營收為 2.78 億美元，年增 3%。這標誌著我們連續第三個季度實現有機收入成長。毛利為 1.02 億美元，年增 4%，總毛利率維持在 37% 不變。

Total operating expenses were $129 million, up $5 million year-over-year. The increase was primarily attributable to a $4 million increase in marketing and media costs and a $3 million increase in restructuring costs. These increases were partially offset by a $4 million decrease in amortization expense as the intangible technology assets acquired with our rentals business completed their amortization.

總營運費用為 1.29 億美元，年增 500 萬美元。這一成長主要歸因於行銷和媒體成本增加了 400 萬美元，以及重組成本增加了 300 萬美元。這些成長被我們租賃業務收購的無形技術資產完成攤銷後攤銷費用減少 400 萬美元所部分抵銷。

Our adjusted EBITDA was $4 million, down from $8 million in the prior year. As Glenn discussed, this result was impacted by onetime costs totaling approximately $4 million.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 為 400 萬美元，低於前一年的 800 萬美元。正如格倫所討論的，這一結果受到總計約 400 萬美元的一次性成本的影響。

Net loss was $34 million compared to a net loss of $19 million in the prior year. This is slightly worse than our last guidance range of $30 million to $22 million, primarily due to $3 million in restructuring expenses that were not contemplated at the time of guidance. These restructuring expenses resulted from closing our home repair service. Diluted loss per share attributable to common stock was $0.28 compared with $0.17 one year ago.

淨虧損為 3,400 萬美元，而前一年的淨虧損為 1,900 萬美元。這比我們上次 3000 萬至 2200 萬美元的指導範圍稍差，主要是由於指導時未考慮到 300 萬美元的重組費用。這些重組費用是由於關閉我們的上門維修服務而產生的。普通股攤薄每股虧損為 0.28 美元，而一年前為 0.17 美元。

Now turning to our segment results. Real Estate Services revenue was $175 million, down 1% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue or revenue from home sales closed by our own agents was down 1% on a 2% increase in brokerage transactions and a 3% decrease in brokerage revenue per transaction. Revenue from our partners decreased 11% on a 21% decrease in transactions, offset by a 13% increase in partner revenue per transaction.

現在轉向我們的部門業績。房地產服務收入為 1.75 億美元，年減 1%。經紀收入或我們自己的代理商完成的房屋銷售收入下降了 1%，原因是經紀交易量增加了 2%，每筆交易的經紀收入減少了 3%。來自合作夥伴的收入下降了 11%，因為交易量減少了 21%，但合作夥伴每筆交易收入增加了 13%，抵消了這一影響。

Real estate services gross margin was 27.8%, down 260 basis points year-over-year. This was primarily driven by a 500 basis point increase in personnel costs and transaction bonuses partially offset by a 220 basis point decrease in home touring and field expenses, as we've eliminated compensation for home touring and field expenses and replaced it with transaction bonuses for some employee agents.

房地產服務毛利率為27.8%，年減260個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金增加了 500 個基點，部分被主場巡演和現場費用減少 220 個基點所抵消，因為我們取消了主場巡演和現場費用的補償，並用交易獎金取代了一些僱員代理人。

Total net loss for real estate services was $9 million compared to a net loss of $1 million in the prior year, and our adjusted EBITDA was positive $5 million, down from $13 million in the prior year.

房地產服務的淨虧損總額為 900 萬美元，而前一年的淨虧損為 100 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為正 500 萬美元，低於上一年的 1,300 萬美元。

Our rental segment posted its eighth straight quarter of growth with revenue of $52 million and growth of 9%. Rentals gross margin was 76.1% compared to 77.2% a year ago. Total net loss for rentals was $9 million, up from a net loss of $13 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the second -- third quarter was a loss of $436,000 down from positive $624,000 in the prior year.

我們的租賃業務連續第八個季度實現成長，營收達 5,200 萬美元，成長 9%。租賃毛利率為 76.1%，而去年同期為 77.2%。租金淨虧損總額為 900 萬美元，高於前一年的淨虧損 1,300 萬美元。第二至第三季調整後 EBITDA 虧損 436,000 美元，去年同期為正值 624,000 美元。

Our mortgage segment generated $36 million in revenue, up 8% year-over-year. Mortgage gross margin was 15.2%, up from 10% a year ago. Net loss for mortgage was $5 million, roughly unchanged from the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $1 million, up from a loss of $4 million in the prior year.

我們的抵押貸款部門產生了 3,600 萬美元的收入，年增 8%。房貸毛利率為 15.2%，高於一年前的 10%。抵押貸款淨損失為 500 萬美元，與去年基本持平。調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 100 萬美元，高於前一年的虧損 400 萬美元。

Our other segment generated revenue of $16 million compared to $11 million in the prior year as both our title and digital revenue businesses grew. Other segment gross margin was 54.2%, up from 40.4% a year ago. Total net income was $7 million compared to $2 million in the prior year and adjusted EBITDA was $7 million compared to $3 million in the prior year.

隨著我們的遊戲和數位收入業務的成長，我們的其他部門產生了 1,600 萬美元的收入，而前一年為 1,100 萬美元。其他分部毛利率為 54.2%，高於一年前的 40.4%。總淨利為 700 萬美元，前一年為 200 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 700 萬美元，前一年為 300 萬美元。

Now turning to our consolidated financial expectations for the fourth quarter of 2024. Total revenue is expected to be between $237 million and $247 million, representing year-over-year growth between 9% and 13% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Included within total revenue are real estate Services revenue between $144 million and $150 million, rentals revenue of $51 million, mortgage revenue between $28 million and $32 million, and other revenue between $13 million and $14 million.

現在轉向我們對 2024 年第四季的綜合財務預期。總營收預計在 2.37 億美元至 2.47 億美元之間，較 2023 年第四季年增 9% 至 13%。總收入包括1.44億至1.5億美元的房地產服務收入、5,100萬美元的租金收入、2,800萬至3,200萬美元的抵押貸款收入以及1,300萬至1,400萬美元的其他收入。

Real estate Services gross margin is expected to be approximately 29%, up more than 600 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 due to the positive impact our Redfin Next program has on seasonality.

由於我們的 Redfin Next 計畫對季節性產生正面影響，房地產服務毛利率預計約為 29%，較 2023 年第四季成長超過 600 個基點。

Total net loss is expected to be between $32 million and $25 million compared to a net loss of $23 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between positive $1 million and positive $8 million compared to negative $13 million last year.

預計淨虧損總額將在 3,200 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元之間，而 2023 年第四季的淨虧損為 2,300 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 預計將在正 100 萬美元至正 800 萬美元之間，而去年為負 1,300 萬美元。

Now let's open the line to your questions.

現在讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ygal Arounian, Citi.

（操作員指令）Ygal Arounian，花旗銀行。

Maybe just to start with the profitability. And if we could -- I guess a few things. If you look at the 4Q guidance, even if you hit the guidance that 3Q would have implied, I believe that the full year outlook would have missed.

也許只是從獲利能力開始。如果我們可以——我想有幾件事。如果你看一下第四季的指導，即使你達到了第三季暗示的指導，我相信全年的前景也會落空。

And just want to think through what's kind of -- what's in the EBITDA number for this year? And as we translate into next year, is it for breakeven profitability next year? How do we think about the road map on that? And I think with maybe tying in the increase in marketing spend, how we should be thinking about that with the target of profitability as well.

只是想想今年的 EBITDA 數字是多少？當我們換算到明年時，是為了明年達到損益兩平嗎？我們如何看待這方面的路線圖？我認為，也許與行銷支出的增加掛鉤，我們也應該如何考慮獲利目標。

Sure. This is Chris. I'll start. So the primary difference from the way we were thinking about the second half of the year is related to third quarter results, where, as Glenn mentioned, volumes were lower than we expected. That led to less revenue. And then on top of that, we had additional costs that we hadn't anticipated, particularly related to the Next program.

當然。這是克里斯。我開始吧。因此，與我們對下半年的看法的主要區別與第三季度的業績有關，正如格倫所提到的，第三季度的銷量低於我們的預期。這導致收入減少。除此之外，我們也產生了未曾預料到的額外成本，特別是與 Next 計畫相關的成本。

We've already addressed the extra costs that we had in the Next program and made program changes. So those won't be continuing into the fourth quarter and into next year. So that's a piece that we've already addressed just in terms of the profitability. But again, most of the variance from what we were expecting in the second half of the year really did occur in the third quarter.

我們已經解決了下一個計劃中的額外成本問題，並對計劃進行了更改。因此，這些不會持續到第四季和明年。因此，我們已經在盈利能力方面解決了這個問題。但同樣，與我們下半年預期的大部分差異確實發生在第三季。

And just to comment on next year. We're not going to be issuing the 2025 guidance, especially not now, but it's a fair question, how we're going to be able to afford more marketing when we obviously want to make money. And the answer is that we are going to continue to find efficiencies in the business.

只是對明年發表評論。我們不會發布 2025 年指導，尤其是現在，但這是一個公平的問題，當我們顯然想賺錢時，我們將如何能夠承擔更多的行銷費用。答案是我們將繼續提高業務效率。

We have come to the conclusion that, at some level, you do have to invest in growth and the best investment in growth is in part going to be in media. Obviously, we're also continuing to enhance our website, trying to draw more organic traffic. But we are going to need to get further enhancements in our cost structure so that we can invest in growth and then we're going to need market share.

我們得出的結論是，在某種程度上，你確實必須投資於成長，而成長的最佳投資部分是在媒體上。顯然，我們仍在繼續增強我們的網站，試圖吸引更多的自然流量。但我們需要進一步改善我們的成本結構，以便我們能夠投資於成長，然後我們需要市場份額。

We benefit somewhat because we made all these cost reductions in the second half that we'll get a full year benefit from in 2025. So we ended our concierge service. We're running more efficiently in our support organization. we eliminated sales managers. We've made some other cuts. And we just think we can continue to get more efficient.

我們受益匪淺，因為我們在下半年實現了所有這些成本削減，我們將在 2025 年全年受益。所以我們結束了禮賓服務。我們的支援組織運作得更有效率。我們取消了銷售經理。我們也進行了一些其他削減。我們只是認為我們可以繼續提高效率。

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And maybe just on Redfin Next and the expansion from the pilot markets into every market now. Any early indications of what you're seeing in those markets? And are they kind of following the trends that you saw in the earlier markets?

好的。偉大的。這真的很有幫助。也許只是 Redfin Next 以及從試點市場擴展到現在的每個市場。您在這些市場中看到了什麼早期跡象？他們是否遵循您在早期市場中看到的趨勢？

And as you think about the expectations for share gain next year, what do you expect or contemplating from the Redfin Next expansion that's needed to reach the share gain that you're looking for?

當您考慮明年的份額成長預期時，您對 Redfin Next 擴張有何期望或考慮，以實現您所尋求的份額成長？

Well, we're fairly optimistic about it for a few reasons. The first being close rate, where a better agent has closed sales at a significantly higher rate given the same number of opportunities, and that's especially true for luxury customers. So we often report on unit market share, but on a dollar basis, we think we're doing -- we're going to do even better.

嗯，出於幾個原因，我們對此相當樂觀。第一個是成交率，在相同數量的機會下，更好的代理商以更高的成交率完成銷售，對於奢侈品客戶來說尤其如此。因此，我們經常報告單位市場份額，但以美元為基礎，我們認為我們正在做——我們會做得更好。

But the other factor is agent census, that sometimes our agents have gotten too many customers, or we've sent too much demand to partners because we haven't been able to recruit agents as quickly as we wanted to. And three of the four major markets where we had share problems over the past six months, we were actually understaffed. And so those markets are recruiting really successfully right now, and it's a different profile of talent than we've been able to get before.

但另一個因素是代理商普查，有時我們的代理商獲得了太多的客戶，或者我們向合作夥伴發出了太多的需求，因為我們無法像我們希望的那樣盡快招募代理商。在過去六個月中，我們遇到共享問題的四個主要市場中，有三個市場實際上人手不足。因此，這些市場現在的招募確實非常成功，而且與我們以前能夠獲得的人才不同。

So we don't want to count our chickens until they're hatched. But been a long time since Redfin has been adding hundreds of agents, and we've never done that where the agents have been so experienced, some of them bringing sales to the company, albeit at lower margins.

所以我們不想在雞孵化之前數它們。但自從 Redfin 增加數百名代理商以來已經很長時間了，而且我們從未在代理商經驗如此豐富的情況下這樣做過，其中一些代理商為公司帶來了銷售，儘管利潤較低。

Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.

柯蒂斯‧內格爾，美國銀行。

Great. So maybe quick question for you, Glenn. Just, I don't know, any view that in terms of this bump in activity that we've seen, I guess, through October that could perhaps be temporary, just kind of given the dynamic with rates. And yes, just kind of interested in your view there. And then curious of your thoughts on 2025 existing home volumes. Do we grow? How much? What are your thoughts there?

偉大的。格倫，也許我想問你一個簡單的問題。只是，我不知道，就我們所看到的這種活動的激增而言，我猜想，考慮到利率的動態，這可能是暫時的，這可能是暫時的。是的，只是對你的觀點感興趣。然後很好奇您對 2025 年現有住宅卷的想法。我們成長了嗎？多少？你有什麼想法？

Well, it's been shocking, as I said. I've been doing this for a long time. And usually, there's a very strong inverse relationship between mortgage rates and sales activity. But even on election day, November 5, we were surprised to see how many people were touring homes. So we just have really good real-time data throughout the funnel because of our vertical integration, and it's been really strong.

嗯，正如我所說，這令人震驚。我已經這樣做很久了。通常，抵押貸款利率和銷售活動之間存在強烈的反比關係。但即使在 11 月 5 日選舉日，我們仍然驚訝地發現有多少人在參觀房屋。因此，由於我們的垂直整​​合，我們在整個管道中擁有非常好的即時數據，而且它非常強大。

And both Chris and I, we're pinching ourselves because sooner or later, it's going to take a toll. If rates keep climbing above 7%, there are people, regardless of what they read in the media or how long they've been waiting, are just priced out.

克里斯和我都在掐自己，因為遲早會造成損失。如果利率持續攀升至 7% 以上，那麼有些人，無論他們在媒體上讀到了什麼，也無論他們等待了多久，都會被高價淘汰。

So I do expect the laws of physics to still apply to the housing market, and it's really hard to predict what's going to happen. I think there's so much geopolitical question right now. Plenty of confidence about the new President in his plan for the economy, but also some concern about inflation driven by tariffs and just deficits.

因此，我確實預計物理定律仍然適用於房地產市場，很難預測會發生什麼。我認為現在有很多地緣政治問題。人們對新總統的經濟計畫充滿信心，但也對關稅和赤字驅動的通貨膨脹感到擔憂。

So really hard to say what's going to happen to interest rates. Mortgage-backed securities investors are worried about it. That's why they basically traded up on really no Fed news. Even including today, rates have just gone up some because of geopolitical anxiety. So it's really hard to say.

所以很難說利率會發生什麼變化。抵押貸款支持證券投資者對此感到擔憂。這就是為什麼他們基本上在沒有美聯儲消息的情況下進行交易。即使包括今天，由於地緣政治焦慮，利率也略有上升。所以這真的很難說。

If you're asking me, I do think 2025 is going to be better than 2024, especially kind of the September low. Hitting 3.8 million, that's a number that's just way outside the strike zone of what we've seen in the past 20 years.

如果你問我，我確實認為 2025 年會比 2024 年更好，尤其是 9 月的低點。達到 380 萬，這個數字遠遠超出了我們過去 20 年所看到的目標範圍。

Got it. And then just kind of a quick follow-up in terms of the market share dynamics in 3Q dropped a little bit, I think, a couple of bps year-over-year. What drove that? Maybe due to the transition to Next? Or just kind of what's going on there?

知道了。然後，第三季市場份額動態的快速跟進，我認為，同比下降了幾個基點。是什麼推動了這一點？也許是由於過渡到下一步？或者只是那裡發生了什麼？

Yes. Well, you win some, you lose some. We expect to get back to a cadence of taking share every quarter maybe it won't be by leaps and bounds, but there should be a steady gain of share every quarter. That's been the long history of Redfin. And in this case, I think some of it is that earlier in the year, we had less traffic growth.

是的。好吧，你贏得了一些，你失去了一些。我們預計會回到每季搶佔份額的節奏，也許不會是突飛猛進，但每季的份額應該會穩定成長。這就是 Redfin 的悠久歷史。在這種情況下，我認為部分原因是今年早些時候，我們的流量成長較少。

Homes.com was advertising so aggressively. It's been an unprecedented level of advertising, and we had actually pulled back. And that's part of the conclusion that we've drawn about 2025, that we've just got to get our cost structure to a place where we can increase advertising.

Homes.com 的廣告如此積極。這是前所未有的廣告水平，我們實際上已經撤退了。這是我們在 2025 年得出的結論的一部分，即我們必須將成本結構調整到可以增加廣告的水平。

And some of what's going on for full year profits is that we're actually leaning into direct marketing because we've got more mortgage and title profits from every customer that we're more confident that we can buy that at a profit. It won't be in year, but it will be over the course of the season, which stands or straddles 2024 and 2025. And so I just think we have to get one step more aggressive about demand generation because we really believe that we can close those sales better than ever before.

全年利潤的一些情況是，我們實際上傾向於直接行銷，因為我們從每個客戶那裡獲得了更多的抵押貸款和產權利潤，我們更有信心能夠以利潤購買它們。這不會是在一年內，而是在整個賽季中進行，這個賽季橫跨 2024 年和 2025 年。因此，我認為我們必須在需求產生方面更加積極主動，因為我們確實相信我們可以比以往更好地完成這些銷售。

I guess just, with all due respect, and just kind of a natural follow-up. I don't know how aggressive homes.com is being in the market right now. But if -- it sounds like impacted your return hurdles. Thinking about '25 and the big step up, do you think that perhaps that could be tricky if they're still spending so aggressively?

我想，恕我直言，這只是一種自然的後續行動。我不知道現在的homes.com 在市場上有多積極。但如果——這聽起來像是影響了你的回歸障礙。想想 25 年來的巨大進步，你是否認為如果他們仍然如此積極地花錢，這可能會很棘手？

Yeah. I mean, look, it's a competitive market. We're not asking for any forbearance from investors because we're bigger or smaller than one company or another. But I do think that having a new entrant in the market affected us somewhat. So I don't expect them to increase their budget from 2024 to 2025. I think they've been clear on that point that they don't expect to do that. And we expect to increase ours.

是的。我的意思是，看，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。我們不會因為我們比一家公司或另一家公司大或小而要求投資者給予任何寬容。但我確實認為市場上的新進者對我們產生了一定的影響。所以我預計他們不會增加 2024 年至 2025 年的預算。我認為他們在這一點上已經明確表明他們不希望這樣做。我們希望增加我們的。

So spending more on growth and less on other areas should lead to growth. And it would be sort of a speculative investment if our traffic weren't growing right now. We've got year-over-year growth in October and November. And that's not even based mostly on marketing expense, that's just getting back on the horse on organic traffic growth.

因此，增加在成長上的支出，減少在其他領域的支出應該會帶來成長。如果我們的流量現在沒有成長，這將是一種投機性投資。我們在 10 月和 11 月實現了同比增長。這甚至不是主要基於行銷費用，而只是依靠有機流量成長。

John Campbell, Stephens.

約翰坎貝爾、史蒂芬斯.

I maybe want to touch on clear cooperation policy. I know it's a pretty hotly debated topic right now in the industry. Maybe if you could just kind of recap your stance there. And then just assuming if you can just play a scenario, if that were to be eliminated, maybe in what ways that would affect Redfin positive or negatively.

我也許想談談明確的合作政策。我知道這是目前業界爭論非常激烈的話題。也許你能回顧一下你的立場。然後假設你是否可以玩一個場景，如果要消除這個場景，也許會對 Redfin 產生正面或負面的影響。

Well, our position has been the pro-consumer position. Buyers want to see all the homes for sale. It's plain that, that is what's in the best interest of the consumer. It's plain that the regulators were going to see it the same way. So we've just been pleased to see that, so far, the National Association of Realtors has supported that.

嗯，我們的立場是有利於消費者的立場。買家希望看到所有待售房屋。顯然，這才是最符合消費者利益的。很明顯，監管機構也會以同樣的方式看待它。因此，我們很高興看到到目前為止，全國房地產經紀人協會對此表示支持。

And if it were to change, we run the largest brokerage website in America. So if we get into some battle with other brokerages about how we're going to market listings privately on our own website, we think we're in a better position than other brokerages because of our website's reach. So that's our position.

如果要改變的話，我們經營著美國最大的經紀網站。因此，如果我們與其他經紀公司就如何在自己的網站上私下行銷上市進行爭論，我們認為由於我們網站的影響力，我們比其他經紀公司處於更好的位置。這就是我們的立場。

That makes sense. And then I want to touch on Seattle or just maybe the broader fusion town area. I mean, obviously, that's your top market. So maybe if you could talk to October. From what we're seeing, it looks like a bit of a breakout, I think, across close sells, spending on home sells, new listings, price acceleration. Like every --

這是有道理的。然後我想談談西雅圖或更廣泛的融合城鎮地區。我的意思是，顯然，那是你的最大市場。也許你可以和十月談談。從我們所看到的情況來看，我認為，在成交量、房屋銷售支出、新上市、價格加速方面，這看起來有點突破。就像每一個--

Wait a minute, John. Are you querying the Northwest MLS about our Seattle market share?

等一下，約翰。您是否向西北 MLS 詢問我們西雅圖的市場份額？

Exactly. So yeah, if you could talk to whether you're seeing that within your system, and just any kind of broad commentary on Seattle.

確切地。所以，是的，如果你能談談你是否在你的系統中看到了這一點，以及對西雅圖的任何廣泛評論。

I'm not going to comment on one market after another because I'll just encourage more analysts to be like you, John. And then where would we be?

我不會對一個又一個市場發表評論，因為我只是鼓勵更多的分析師像你一樣，約翰。那我們會在哪裡呢？

But in markets that have transitioned to Redfin Next, we are adding agents. And it's a pretty straight line when you have enough demand. You add agents, you're going to get more sales. So that has been the dynamic. We should have transitioned to Redfin Next a long time ago.

但在已經過渡到 Redfin Next 的市場中，我們正在增加代理商。當你有足夠的需求時，這是一條相當直線的直線。您新增代理商，您將獲得更多銷售。這就是動態。我們早就該轉向 Redfin Next 了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well done, John.

幹得好，約翰。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

I was going to ask first, if you think about just the average home sale, I mean, how much more are you paying out to a Redfin Next agent for the same dollar sale that you would have paid last year?

我首先要問的是，如果您只考慮平均房屋銷售，我的意思是，與去年您支付的相同美元銷售費用，您要向 Redfin Next 代理商多支付多少費用？

Twice as much if the agent sourced it himself. But most of our sales are sourced by the website. So we have no competitive advantage with agent-sourced sales. No brokerage does. That's why it's a low-margin business. But when we source the sale ourselves, which is the overwhelming majority of our sales, it is at the same or better margins than what we did with our classic pay plan.

如果是代理人自己採購的話，價格是兩倍。但我們的大部分銷售都是來自網站。所以我們在代理銷售方面沒有競爭優勢。沒有經紀公司這樣做。這就是為什麼它是一項低利潤業務。但是，當我們自己採購銷售時（占我們銷售的絕大多數），其利潤率與我們採用經典薪酬計劃時的利潤率相同或更高。

We actually modeled it to be the same, but what we've discovered is first that the agents closed sales at higher rates. And when you have a higher close rate, it actually improves gross margins because we're paying other support staff to handle touring. And then second, they're doing better at the high end. And then third, they're more independent. All of those let us get leverage over margin.

我們實際上將其建模為相同的，但我們首先發現代理商以更高的價格完成銷售。當你有更高的成交率時，它實際上會提高毛利率，因為我們會支付其他支援人員來處理巡迴演出。其次，他們在高端市場做得更好。第三，他們更加獨立。所有這些都讓我們獲得了保證金槓桿。

So in August, we did a cut where we transitioned some sales managers to be individual contributors so they could carry revenue for us or they left the company. And some of that is just driven by an early experience we had in San Francisco, one of the first Next markets, where agent said, the worst part about this job is meeting my manager. And Chris said, I'm only too happy to solve that problem for you. You can meet them once a month if you have questions.

因此，在八月份，我們進行了一次裁員，將一些銷售經理轉變為個人貢獻者，這樣他們就可以為我們帶來收入，否則就會離開公司。其中一些只是由我們在舊金山的早期經歷推動的，舊金山是最早的 Next 市場之一，那裡的經紀人說，這份工作最糟糕的部分是與我的經理見面。克里斯說，我很高興為你解決這個問題。如果您有疑問，您可以每月與他們會面一次。

And then I know you don't want to talk about '25 guidance. But is 600 basis points improvement something that might be realistic as we think about modeling '25 under this new plan?

然後我知道你不想談論 '25 指導方針。但是，當我們考慮在這個新計劃下對 25 進行建模時，600 個基點的改進可能是現實的嗎？

Chris, what 600 basis points is he talking about?

克里斯，他說的 600 個基點是多少？

This is for real estate services in the fourth quarter. And to answer that question, firstly, you should think about the shift of our business to Redfin Next as being neutral on gross margin.

這是第四季的房地產服務。要回答這個問題，首先，您應該將我們的業務轉移到 Redfin Next 視為毛利率中性。

So Glenn described that, on a per transaction basis, we do pay higher bonuses under Next than we did previously. But we've reduced the fixed compensation, the salary for the agents. And so really, this is about taking dollars that were previously fixed or in salary and moving them to transaction bonuses.

因此格倫描述說，在每筆交易的基礎上，我們在 Next 下支付的獎金確實比以前更高。但我們減少了固定報酬，也就是代理商的薪水。事實上，這就是將先前固定的或薪資中的美元轉移到交易獎金中。

The Q4 gain is in part seasonal. We tried to emphasize that in the script. So our margins were lower in the summer, and that's because it's more volatile for the agent. So they make hay while the sun shines. But then in the winter, when we used to sustain significant margin damage paying agent salaries, we don't have to anymore. So we hope that you can see that across 4 quarters when we start lapping the full rollout of Next on October of 2025.

第四季的成長部分是季節性的。我們試圖在劇本中強調這一點。因此，我們的利潤在夏季較低，這是因為對於代理商來說，它的波動性更大。所以他們趁著陽光明媚的時候曬乾草。但到了冬天，當我們過去因支付代理商工資而遭受重大利潤損失時，我們就不必再這樣做了。因此，我們希望當我們在 2025 年 10 月開始全面推出 Next 時，您可以在 4 個季度內看到這一點。

(Operator Instructions) John Colantuoni, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）John Colantuoni，Jefferies。

This is Vincent on for John. Just a quick one here on maybe some examples of areas in the business where you could look to source some of those further efficiencies for funding the ramp in advertising that you have planned for 2025.

這是文森替約翰發言。這裡只是簡單介紹一下業務領域的一些範例，您可以在這些領域尋求進一步提高效率的資源，為您計劃在 2025 年擴大廣告投放提供資金。

Tough question when the call is open to the general public. But what's sacred to us is our investments in growth. So we're going to continue to fund building a better search experience, having to be engaging, funding artificial intelligence to drive better listing recommendations, which brings users back to the site and just drives overall traffic.

當電話會議向公眾開放時，這是一個棘手的問題。但對我們來說神聖的是我們對成長的投資。因此，我們將繼續資助建立更好的搜尋體驗，必須具有吸引力，資助人工智慧來推動更好的清單推薦，這將用戶帶回網站並推動整體流量。

And we're also going to fund investments in technologies that can help us, with a fairly long sales cycle, improve close rates. So when we invest in artificial intelligence to contact customers who have been out of touch with us and identify which ones are most likely to transact, that's a good bet. Everything else is on the table.

我們還將資助技術投資，這些技術可以幫助我們在相當長的銷售週期內提高成交率。因此，當我們投資人工智慧來聯繫那些與我們失去聯繫的客戶並確定哪些客戶最有可能進行交易時，這是一個不錯的選擇。其他一切都擺在桌面上。

(Operator Instructions) And there appear to be no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back to Glenn for any closing remarks.

（操作員說明） 目前似乎沒有進一步的問題。現在我想請格倫發表結束語。

Only that we appreciate all of your questions. Thank you so much for listening to me and Chris rattle on. See you in three months.

只是我們感謝您提出的所有問題。非常感謝您聆聽我和克里斯的喋喋不休。三個月後見。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。