(RDFN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Redfin Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Redfin Corporation 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Meg Nunnally. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給主持人梅格·納納利 (Meg Nunnally)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the third quarter ended September 30, 2023. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的第三季財務業績電話會議。我是 Redfin 投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行長格倫凱爾曼 (Glenn Kelman)；和我們的財務長克里斯尼爾森。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天的電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們對這些前瞻性陳述的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會產生重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新資訊或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com for more information related to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and related reconciliation. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated. Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call, and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務表現時提出非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站Investors.redfin.com 上獲取，以了解與我們的非GAAP 指標相關的更多信息，包括最直接可比的GAAP 財務指標和相關調節表。除非另有說明，本次電話會議過程中所進行的所有比較均與去年同期進行。最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束時在我們的網站上提供準備好的講話副本，並且在電話會議後不久也將提供完整的文字記錄和音頻重播。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Glenn.

這樣，我就把電話轉給格倫。

Thanks, Meg. Hi, everyone. Despite a housing market that has gone from bad to worse, Redfin gained share and earned adjusted-EBITDA profits in the third quarter of 2023. Our third-quarter results from continuing operations show how much more efficient we've become over the last year. Revenue declined year over year by 12%, but gross profits increased by 8%, and adjusted EBITDA improved by $20 million, with improvements in nearly every segment. Including the gain from closing RedfinNow, the year-over-year increase in our adjusted EBITDA was $59 million.

謝謝，梅格。大家好。儘管房地產市場每況愈下，Redfin 仍獲得了市場份額，並在 2023 年第三季度獲得了調整後的 EBITDA 利潤。我們的持續營運第三季業績顯示，我們在去年的效率提高了多少。營收年減 12%，但毛利成長 8%，調整後 EBITDA 提高 2,000 萬美元，幾乎每個細分市場都有所改善。包括關閉 RedfinNow 帶來的收益，我們調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 5900 萬美元。

We've also raised capital. In the third quarter of 2023, we bought $36 million of 2025 debt for $29 million, leaving $235 million remaining. Then at the end of October, we secured a $250-million loan from Apollo Global Management, which we can use to retire the remainder of our 2025 debt, giving ourselves more time to develop a significantly profitable business before our 2027 convertible notes are due.

我們還籌集了資金。 2023 年第三季度，我們以 2,900 萬美元購買了 2025 年債務中的 3,600 萬美元，剩下 2.35 億美元。然後在10 月底，我們從阿波羅全球管理公司獲得了2.5 億美元的貸款，我們可以用這筆貸款償還2025 年剩餘的債務，讓我們有更多的時間在2027 年可轉換票據到期之前發展利潤豐厚的業務。

The share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents also increased, from 0.75% in the second quarter of 2023 to 0.78% in the third quarter. Our share is still below its level from a year ago, as we haven't fully recovered from the share lost in the first half of 2023 due to layoffs and the closure of RedfinNow, but we're glad to be growing again. For the first time since our earnings call discussing results from the second quarter of 2022, our quarterly guidance forecasts the possibility of year-over-year revenue growth.

由我們自己的經紀人代理以及透過推薦給我們的合作夥伴經紀人代理的房屋銷售份額也有所增加，從 2023 年第二季度的 0.75% 增加到第三季度的 0.78%。我們的份額仍低於一年前的水平，因為我們尚未完全恢復 2023 年上半年因裁員和 RedfinNow 關閉而損失的份額，但我們很高興能夠再次成長。自從我們的財報電話會議討論 2022 年第二季的業績以來，我們的季度指引首次預測了營收年增的可能性。

Any growth should be very profitable, as every one of our businesses has gotten more efficient, none more so than our core real-estate services business. Despite real estate services third-quarter transactions declining 20% year-over-year in line with a housing downturn and revenues declining by 16%, adjusted EBITDA improved by $9 million. There will still be ups and downs, but mostly we plan to keep drawing visitors away from rival sites due to the addition of rental and now new-construction listings. As we recruit a more sales-driven agent with completely variable compensation, we also expect to take more sales from other brokers.

任何成長都應該是非常有利可圖的，因為我們的每項業務都變得更加高效，尤其是我們的核心房地產服務業務。儘管由於房地產市場低迷，房地產服務第三季交易量年減 20%，營收下降 16%，但調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 900 萬美元。仍然會有起起落落，但大多數情況下，我們計劃透過增加租賃和現在的新建房源來繼續吸引訪客遠離競爭對手的網站。當我們招募一個更具銷售驅動力且薪酬完全可變的代理人時，我們也期望從其他經紀人那裡獲得更多的銷售。

We're getting more gross profit from less revenue in part because of increasing contributions from high-margin businesses. The simplest, most significant change in our strategy has been to become more digital, by routing more real-estate-services demand to partners instead of employees, and by building our rentals marketplace. This strategy has led to the formation of several new digital businesses, still small enough to be grouped with Title Forward in our other segment. That segment grew 54%, and generated more than $3 million in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, up from roughly $50,000 in the third quarter of 2022.

我們從較少的收入中獲得了更多的毛利，部分原因是高利潤業務的貢獻不斷增加。我們策略中最簡單、最重要的變化是變得更加數位化，將更多的房地產服務需求轉移給合作夥伴而不是員工，並建立我們的租賃市場。這項策略導致了幾個新的數位業務的形成，這些業務仍然很小，可以與我們其他領域的 Title Forward 歸為一類。該部門成長了 54%，第三季調整後 EBITDA 產生了超過 300 萬美元，高於 2022 年第三季的約 5 萬美元。

Those profits are largely the result of businesses we launched in the second quarter of 2022: a mortgage marketplace for connecting Redfin.com visitors to lenders, and display ads on Redfin.com. We expect to develop more sources of digital revenue over the next year. Just last week, Redfin.com published the first batch of new-construction listings from Zillow, which we expect to add more than $750,000 in profits per

這些利潤主要歸功於我們在 2022 年第二季推出的業務：一個抵押貸款市場，將 Redfin.com 訪客與貸方連接起來，並在 Redfin.com 上展示廣告。我們預計明年將開發更多的數位收入來源。就在上週，Redfin.com 發布了 Zillow 的第一批新建築掛牌訊息，我們預計每棟新建築將增加超過 75 萬美元的利潤

quarter.

四分之一.

These digital businesses are only one reason why Redfin's overall gross margins improved from 30% in the third quarter of 2022, to 37% in the third quarter of 2023. Within real estate services over that time, gross margins improved from 26% to 30%. Just as important, Redfin has made ourselves less sensitive to housing's ups and downs. Even as we've developed one digital revenue stream after another, we've gotten out of a business that involved holding hundreds of millions of dollars in houses, and launched a pilot eliminating agent salaries.

這些數位業務只是 Redfin 整體毛利率從 2022 年第三季的 30% 提高到 2023 年第三季的 37% 的原因之一。在此期間，在房地產服務領域，毛利率從 26% 提高到 30% 。同樣重要的是，Redfin 降低了我們對房地產市場波動的敏感度。儘管我們開發了一個又一個數位收入來源，但我們已經退出了一項涉及持有數億美元房屋的業務，並啟動了一項取消經紀人工資的試點。

While some of our rivals have made a virtue of spending, Redfin is proud of how quickly and thoroughly we've restructured ourselves to be faster, more efficient and more competitive. Few companies that have gone through that process have wanted to go back. The downturn has made us stronger.

雖然我們的一些競爭對手已經透過支出獲得了美譽，但 Redfin 為我們能夠如此迅速和徹底地重組自己以變得更快、更有效率和更具競爭力而感到自豪。很少經歷過這過程的公司願意回去。低迷使我們變得更加堅強。

Redfin will become more digital over time, but only where it makes sense: where our own employees can serve our audience better, with more profits, we will. We believe having that flexibility, when many businesses are either completely reliant on partners or handle virtually every customer themselves, will make us more profitable over time.

隨著時間的推移，Redfin 將變得更加數位化，但只有在有意義的情況下：我們自己的員工可以更好地為我們的受眾服務，並獲得更多利潤，我們才會這樣做。我們相信，當許多企業要么完全依賴合作夥伴，要么自己處理幾乎每個客戶時，擁有這種靈活性將使我們隨著時間的推移獲得更多利潤。

And we'll have more opportunities to earn money from our audience as that audience grows. Comparing the third quarters of 2022 and 2023, visitors to Redfin.com grew by one percent. This was the first year-over-year gain in 2023. This gain has been the result of our increasing ability to compete for traffic against our two historical rivals, Zillow and Realtor.com. According to Comscore data, the gap in year-over-year visitor growth between Redfin and these sites averaged 11 points in the third quarter.

隨著觀眾的成長，我們將有更多機會從觀眾身上賺錢。與 2022 年第三季和 2023 年第三季相比，Redfin.com 的訪問量增加了 1%。這是 2023 年首次同比增長。這一增長是我們與兩個歷史競爭對手 Zillow 和 Realtor.com 競爭流量的能力不斷增強的結果。根據 Comscore 數據，第三季 Redfin 與這些網站的訪問量同比增長差距平均為 11 個百分點。

We'll continue measuring our progress against our longtime rivals, but have also begun monitoring traffic to CoStar's homes.com, which has benefited from a major ad campaign since the second quarter of 2023. That Redfin's growth came in the face of this campaign, and with U.S. home sales still falling, makes it all the more impressive.

我們將繼續衡量我們與長期競爭對手相比的進展，但也開始監控CoStar 的Homes.com 的流量，該網站自2023 年第二季度以來受益於一場大型廣告活動。Redfin 的成長是在這場活動面前實現的，由於美國房屋銷售仍在下降，這一點更加令人印象深刻。

We attribute our success to a better search experience. We're still drawing more visitors from search-engines like Google, and still improving the listing recommendations that keep visitors coming back for more, but the most fundamental improvement may be in how we present search results, in a feed that combines listings with market news and agent insights.

我們將我們的成功歸功於更好的搜尋體驗。我們仍在從Google等搜尋引擎吸引更多訪客，並且仍在改進清單推薦，讓訪客回訪更多，但最根本的改進可能是我們在將清單與市場相結合的提要中呈現搜尋結果的方式新聞和代理商見解。

This growth in Redfin's audience, especially among people looking at rental properties, is only one reason Rent earned its first quarterly profit since Redfin acquired Rent in April 2021. The revenue booked per sales person has increased 362% since the third quarter of 2021, when Rent's new leader came on board. In the third quarter of 2023, revenues increased 23% year-over-year, the fourth straight quarter of growth, after years of declines. Rent's third-quarter net bookings, which are the annualized revenues added through sales to new customers less the annualized revenues lost from departing customers, grew 51% year over year.

Redfin 受眾群體的成長，尤其是關注租賃房產的人群的成長，只是Rent 自2021 年4 月Redfin 收購Rent 以來首次實現季度盈利的原因之一。自2021 年第三季度以來，每位銷售人員預訂的營收成長了362%，其中Rent 的新領導階層上任了。 2023 年第三季度，營收年增 23%，在經歷多年下滑後連續第四個季度成長。 Rent第三季的淨預訂量年增了51%，淨預訂量是透過向新客戶銷售而增加的年化收入減去因離開客戶而損失的年化收入。

We expect Rent's growth to continue, especially in its core online marketplace for connecting potential tenants to properties. We're also driving sales from an expanded line of digital-marketing solutions, for promoting our customers' apartment buildings on search engines and social-media sites; unmatched by our largest rentals competitors, these products help us open new accounts with customers who are trying to reduce the number of specialized marketing vendors that they pay.

我們預計 Rent 的成長將持續，特別是在其連接潛在租戶和房產的核心線上市場。我們也透過擴大數位行銷解決方案系列來推動銷售，在搜尋引擎和社群媒體網站上推廣客戶的公寓大樓；這些產品是我們最大的租賃競爭對手無法比擬的，它們可以幫助我們與那些試圖減少向專業行銷供應商支付費用的客戶開設新帳戶。

To keep growing our marketplace, our focus will be on generating more traffic and tenant inquiries. After a year of rebranding as Rent and unifying the code base for rent.com and apartmentGuide.com, Rent is now able to invest in tried-and-true demand-driving tactics: e-mail campaigns, improvements in our mobile applications' user experience, efficiency gains in search-engine marketing, and machinelearning-based software for engaging visitors. This is why we're optimistic that Rent's growth will continue.

為了不斷發展我們的市場，我們的重點將是產生更多的流量和租戶查詢。經過一年的更名為 Rent 並統一 Rent.com 和 ApartmentGuide.com 的程式碼庫之後，Rent 現在能夠投資於經過驗證的需求驅動策略：電子郵件活動、行動應用程式用戶的改進經驗、搜尋引擎行銷的效率提升以及用於吸引訪客的基於機器學習的軟體。這就是我們對租金持續成長持樂觀態度的原因。

Even as we gain strength in our digital businesses, we're also reducing fixed costs in our core business of brokering home sales. We've begun hiring Redfin agents in San Francisco and LA on the promise of a new, all-variable compensation plan, which takes effect January 1st. The goal of this new pay plan, which we're calling Redfin Max, is to offer agents the best of both worlds. On self-sourced sales, our agents will keep as much as 75% of the commission, which compares favorably with what many traditional brokers pay. But unlike many traditional brokers, Redfin will also offer agents the support staff and customer introductions to build a larger business.

即使我們在數位業務方面取得了優勢，我們也在降低房屋銷售經紀核心業務的固定成本。我們已開始在舊金山和洛杉磯招募 Redfin 代理商，並承諾提供新的全變量薪資計劃，該計劃將於 1 月 1 日生效。我們稱之為 Redfin Max 的新薪酬計劃的目標是為代理商提供兩全其美的服務。對於自營銷售，我們的代理商將保留高達 75% 的佣金，這與許多傳統經紀人支付的佣金相比相當優惠。但與許多傳統經紀商不同的是，Redfin 也將為代理商提供支援人員和客戶介紹，以建立更大的業務。

We're not aiming to make much money on agents' self-sourced sales, as few traditional brokers have ever earned a decent margin; our goal is to recruit agents who can close Redfin-sourced sales at a high rate. The margins on Redfin-sourced sales should remain well above those of other brokers. Even if Max agents' sales turn out to be largely self-sourced, lowering margins on a larger volume of sales in our pilot markets, the impact on Redfin's overall gross margin will be negligible. We won't extend Redfin Max to a large number of markets unless we become convinced that it will net more gross profits. For Max to succeed, a new cohort of motivated, high-caliber agents has to close only a few more sales each year than we normally would with the same set of site-sourced opportunities.

我們的目標並不是透過代理商的自營銷售賺很多錢，因為很少有傳統經紀人能夠獲得可觀的利潤；我們的目標是招募能夠高效率完成 Redfin 採購銷售的代理商。 Redfin 來源銷售的利潤率應仍遠高於其他經紀商。即使 Max 代理商的銷售大部分是自營的，從而降低了我們試點市場中較大銷售量的利潤率，對 Redfin 整體毛利率的影響也可以忽略不計。我們不會將 Redfin Max 擴展到大量市場，除非我們確信它會帶來更多毛利。為了讓 Max 成功，一群積極進取、高素質的新代理商每年只需比我們通常在相同的網站採購機會下多完成幾筆銷售即可。

This is a bold change, but not as bold as it could have been. The Redfin Max plan still employs our agents, because we know from experience with online inquiries how important it is to take a team-based, systematic approach with customers who want immediate service from an agent assigned to them by our site. Employing agents also lets us ensure the agent puts the customer first. But all-variable pay should let us hire more agents in Max markets, so we can bet more on growth with less at risk for Redfin through a downturn.

這是一個大膽的改變，但還沒想像中那麼大膽。 Redfin Max 計劃仍然僱用我們的代理，因為我們從線上查詢的經驗中知道，對於希望從我們網站分配給他們的代理處獲得即時服務的客戶，採取基於團隊的系統方法是多麼重要。僱用代理商還可以讓我們確保代理商將客戶放在第一位。但全可變薪酬應該讓我們能夠在 Max 市場僱用更多的代理商，這樣我們就可以更多地押注於增長，同時減少 Redfin 在經濟低迷時期面臨的風險。

The reception so far to Redfin Max has been good. From October 16, when recruiters first got the Max materials, through October 31, 6 agents already agreed to join us. Candidates we'd been courting for months signed on, almost on the spot, saying this plan made the decision easy. Several agents who long ago left Redfin contacted me the week of the launch to ask about coming back. Our goal is to add about 60 top-producing agents in San Francisco and LA.

迄今為止，Redfin Max 的反應良好。從10月16日招募人員第一次拿到Max材料開始，到10月31日，已經有6位經紀人同意加入我們。我們幾個月來一直在爭取的候選人幾乎當場就簽約了，他們說這個計劃讓我們很容易做出決定。幾位很久以前離開 Redfin 的特工在 Redfin 推出的那一周聯繫了我，詢問是否可以回來。我們的目標是在舊金山和洛杉磯增加約 60 個頂尖的代理商。

Redfin Max is one of several big changes afoot at our brokerage. We began developing several others the week of September 10th, when Jason Aleem assumed sole responsibility for our brokerage. For example, we're now testing incentives for customers who buy a Redfin listing, or who commit to hiring a Redfin agent early in their home search. We're overturning our most intricate systems for scheduling tours and assigning customers, to ensure our best sales people host our first meeting with a customer, when before we'd scheduled those tours with contractors. Already, this has led to a double-digit increase in the percentage of customers met on their first tour by our sales people; the remainder are still meeting the contractors we call on for back-up property access.

Redfin Max 是我們經紀公司正在進行的幾項重大變革之一。 9 月 10 日這一周，我們開始開發其他幾個項目，當時 Jason Aleem 全權負責我們的經紀業務。例如，我們現在正在測試對購買 Redfin 清單的客戶或承諾在房屋搜尋過程中儘早僱用 Redfin 代理商的客戶的激勵措施。我們正在顛覆最複雜的安排旅行和分配客戶的系統，以確保我們最好的銷售人員在我們與承包商安排旅行之前主持與客戶的第一次會議。這已經導致我們的銷售人員在第一次巡演中遇到的客戶比例出現了兩位數的成長；其餘的仍在與我們呼籲的承包商會面，以獲取備用財產。

We'll keep you posted on whether Redfin Max agents can succeed in our system, or if our other new initiatives drive sales. What investors should know now is that our brokerage is moving fast and simplifying its policies. The more analytical approach we've had in the past let us optimize the sales tactics of a large sales force in a stable market. But in a more volatile, competitive market, filled with solo practitioners who can turn on a dime, we're taking more risk to go on the attack. The speed and scale of these initiatives would've been unimaginable in prior years.

我們將隨時向您通報 Redfin Max 代理商能否在我們的系統中取得成功，或者我們的其他新舉措是否能推動銷售。投資者現在應該知道的是，我們的經紀業務正在快速行動並簡化其政策。我們過去採用的更具分析性的方法使我們能夠在穩定的市場中優化大型銷售人員的銷售策略。但在一個更波動、競爭更激烈的市場中，充滿了能夠迅速扭轉局面的獨立從業者，我們需要冒更大的風險來發動攻擊。這些舉措的速度和規模在前幾年是難以想像的。

As our brokerage gains market-share, we'll also get more title and mortgage sales. The attach rate for our title business increased from 39% in the third quarter of 2022 to 57% in the third quarter of 2023. 18% of our brokerage's third-quarter homebuyers used Bay Equity for a mortgage, up from 17% in the third quarter of 2022. In the second quarter of 2023, Bay Equity's attach rate was 19%. Both Bay Equity and Title Forward remain vigilant about costs, having laid off employees in October to improve profits in a falling housing market.

隨著我們的經紀業務獲得市場份額，我們還將獲得更多的產權和抵押貸款銷售。我們的產權業務的附加率從2022 年第三季的39% 上升到2023 年第三季的57%。我們經紀公司第三季的購屋者中有18% 使用Bay Equity 進行抵押貸款，高於第三季的17% 2022年第四季。2023年第二季度，Bay Equity的附加率為19%。 Bay Equity 和 Title Forward 都對成本保持警惕，並於 10 月解雇了員工，以在房地產市場下跌的情況下提高利潤。

As we said in our last earnings call, we expect that lifting lending attach rates much above 15% will take time, especially when the proportion of all-cash buyers is rising in step with interest rates. But we believe a long-term attach-rate goal of between 25% and 30% is still realistic. We're now experimenting with new incentives for managers and, where the law allows, for agents.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所說，我們預計將貸款附加利率提高到 15% 以上需要時間，特別是當全現金買家的比例隨著利率上升而上升時。但我們認為 25% 至 30% 之間的長期附加率目標仍然是現實的。我們現在正在嘗試針對管理者以及在法律允許的情況下針對代理人的新激勵措施。

The investment we've made in handling every aspect of a customer's move, those investments aren't paying off now because no one in the lending industry is making much money. But when rates ease, whether in 2024 or beyond, Bay Equity's gains on sale will likely increase, easing price pressure may lead to higher brokerage attach rates, and our refinancing business will boom.

我們在處理客戶行動的各個方面所做的投資，現在還沒有得到回報，因為貸款行業沒有人賺多少錢。但當利率放鬆時，無論是在 2024 年還是以後，Bay Equity 的銷售收益可能會增加，價格壓力的緩解可能會導致經紀附加費率上升，我們的再融資業務將會蓬勃發展。

Before turning to the housing market, let's discuss the $1.8-billion verdict in the federal class-action lawsuit in Missouri against the National Association of Realtors and several major brokers. This is an outcome that Redfin has long prepared for: from the day years ago that we launched a brokerage to give consumers a better deal, up to last month, when we were the first major real estate company to announce our break with the National Association of Realtors.

在轉向房地產市場之前，我們先來討論一下密蘇裡州針對全國房地產經紀人協會和幾家主要經紀人的聯邦集體訴訟中 18 億美元的判決。這是 Redfin 早已準備好的結果：從多年前我們推出經紀業務，為消費者提供更好的交易，到上個月，我們成為第一家宣布與全國協會決裂的大型房地產公司房地產經紀人。

The Missouri verdict may lead to reforms in how agents talk to listing customers about the fees offered to buyers' agents. The litigation has already led the National Association of Realtors to change its guidelines to local Multiple Listing Services, which will now accept listings that don't offer a commission to buyers' agents. Redfin has long counseled our agents to support any fee a listing customer wants to pay a buyer's agent. Alone among major brokerages, we exist to charge customers lower fees.

密蘇裡州的判決可能會導致代理商與掛牌客戶談論向買家代理商提供的費用的方式進行改革。該訴訟已導致全國房地產經紀人協會更改其對當地多重掛牌服務的指導方針，該服務現在將接受不向買家代理人提供佣金的掛牌。 Redfin 長期以來一直建議我們的代理商支援掛牌客戶想要向買方代理商支付的任何費用。在主要經紀公司中，我們是唯一一家向客戶收取較低費用的公司。

But the Missouri verdict and other court cases may lead to a revolution in our industry, not just reform. If buyers' agents become less common, Redfin will prosper in that world too. We run the largest brokerage website in America, as well as a national network of contractors trained and licensed to provide low-cost, on-demand property access. We've built self-service technology for buyers to set up their own tours and to make offers on our listings without a buyer's agent. We can use that technology to market the properties listed by our agents directly to consumers, taking market share from other brokerages. And we may open that platform to other listing agents who work with us as partners. We've sometimes been ahead of our time; if a massive disruption is in fact at hand, we aren't going to fall behind now.

但密蘇裡州的判決和其他法庭案件可能會引發我們行業的一場革命，而不僅僅是改革。如果買家仲介變得不那麼常見，Redfin 也將在這個世界中蓬勃發展。我們經營著美國最大的經紀網站，以及經過培訓和許可的全國承包商網絡，可提供低成本、按需的房產訪問。我們建立了自助服務技術，讓買家可以自行安排行程，並在沒有買家代理人的情況下對我們的清單進行報價。我們可以利用該技術將我們的代理商列出的房產直接向消費者推銷，從其他經紀公司手中奪取市場份額。我們可能會向與我們合作的其他上市代理商開放平台。我們有時會走在時代的前面；如果大規模的破壞確實即將到來，我們現在就不會落後。

With that said, let's discuss the housing market. Goldman Sachs last week forecasted existing home sales will fall further, from 4.1 million units in 2023 to 3.8 million in 2024, a level not reached since 1993, when the U.S. population was 22% smaller. U.S. gross domestic product grew at a blistering 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023, keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates higher for longer, even as war, political gridlock and sovereign debt have put the global economy on a knife's edge.

說到這裡，我們來討論一下房地產市場。高盛上週預測，現房銷售量將進一步下降，從 2023 年的 410 萬套降至 2024 年的 380 萬套，這是自 1993 年以來從未達到的水平，當時美國人口減少了 22%。 2023年第三季度，美國國內生產毛額(GDP)以驚人的4.9%成長，這給聯準會帶來了在更長時間內維持較高利率的壓力，儘管戰爭、政治僵局和主權債務已經讓全球經濟處於危險之中。

But now like Satan in Paradise Lost, surveying the dismal expanse of rocks, caves, lakes, fens, bogs, and dens of his new home in hell, I feel a twinge of optimism. If homes were only a speculative asset, our sales prospects would indeed be grim, but most people buy a home to move to a better life. Those plans can be deferred from 2022 to 2023, but not forever.

但現在，就像《失樂園》中的撒旦一樣，環顧著他地獄新家那片慘淡的岩石、洞穴、湖泊、沼澤、沼澤和巢穴，我感到一絲樂觀。如果房子只是一種投機資產，我們的銷售前景確實會很黯淡，但大多數人買房子是為了過上更好的生活。這些計劃可以從 2022 年推遲到 2023 年，但不會永遠推遲。

The number of people asking for listing consultations increased meaningfully in the closing weeks of October, as part of an overall year-over-year increase in customers contacting Redfin agents. For the first time in years, we see signs that home prices may soften, a welcome development for home sales and for America when affordability has been at a four-decade low. Owners always mark listings down that didn't sell in the summer, but there are more price drops this fall since at least 2015.

10 月最後幾週，請求上市諮詢的人數顯著增加，這是聯繫 Redfin 代理商的客戶整體同比增長的一部分。多年來我們第一次看到房價可能會走軟的跡象，這對於房屋銷售和美國的負擔能力處於四年來的低點來說是一個可喜的發展。業主總是對夏季未售出的房源進行降價，但至少自 2015 年以來，今年秋季的降價幅度更大。

We know from our experience building Redfin through the multi-year Great Financial Crisis how false starts can break your heart. In such a volatile market, any full-year projection, even from Goldman Sachs, is mostly just gizzard-squeezing guesswork. For now, we have to assume that next year will start like this one is ending, with a whimper. Chris and I will run Redfin from quarter to quarter, rejecting most discretionary expenses until the housing market improves.

根據我們在多年的金融危機中建立 Redfin 的經驗，我們知道錯誤的開始會如何讓你心碎。在如此動盪的市場中，任何全年預測，即使是高盛的預測，也大多只是令人緊張的猜測。現在，我們必須假設明年的開始就像今年的結束一樣，伴隨著嗚咽。克里斯和我將逐季經營 Redfin，拒絕大部分可自由支配的開支，直到房地產市場好轉。

This will be especially true in the first quarter, which in most of Redfin's loss-making years has accounted for nearly our entire loss. In the past, we've made investments in the first quarter based on the number of sales we expect to close in the third quarter. But in 2024, we'll defer many of those expenses until we can see if any rate relief is likely to come in time for the summer homebuying season. We can't entirely avoid a seasonal first-quarter loss, but minimizing it will give us more ways to win through the rest of the year.

在第一季尤其如此，在 Redfin 的大部分虧損年份中，第一季幾乎佔了我們全部的虧損。過去，我們根據預計第三季完成的銷售數量在第一季進行投資。但到 2024 年，我們將推遲其中大部分支出，直到我們知道是否有可能在夏季購房季節及時推出利率減免措施。我們無法完全避免第一季的季節性虧損，但將其最小化將使我們有更多方法在今年剩餘時間裡獲勝。

As we've planned for 2024, a phrase from my youth has often come back to me. When we both were just graduating from college, my identical twin brother broke his leg very badly. In the hospital, he was all sweat, skin and bones. Since he couldn't go to the store himself, my contribution to his recovery was a low-fat regimen of muscle-building Grape Nuts cereal. During his physical-therapy sessions, I'd yell, 100% pure grape nuts. The science was dubious, but ever since, he has been able to run a mile faster than I can. Redfin has suffered its own setbacks, but now we're running faster than ever before. Hardly a day goes by that I don't say to myself: 100% pure Grape Nuts. Take it away, Chris.

正如我們對 2024 年的計劃一樣，我經常想起我年輕時的一句話。當我們都剛從大學畢業時，我的同卵雙胞胎兄弟的腿嚴重骨折。在醫院裡，他渾身是汗，皮包骨。由於他無法親自去商店，我對他康復的貢獻是低脂增肌葡萄堅果麥片。在他的物理治療過程中，我會大喊，100% 純葡萄堅果。科學是值得懷疑的，但從那以後，他跑得比我快一英里。 Redfin 也遭遇挫折，但現在我們的運行速度比以往任何時候都快。我幾乎每天都會對自己說：100% 純葡萄堅果。把它拿走，克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. While the housing market is undeniably challenging, Redfin is delivering solid financial results. Third-quarter revenue was $269 million, down 12% from a year ago. At the same time, gross profit of $98 million was up 8% year-over-year and total gross margins expanded from 30% to 37%.

謝謝，格倫。儘管房地產市場無可否認地充滿挑戰，但 Redfin 正在實現穩健的財務表現。第三季營收為 2.69 億美元，年減 12%。同時，毛利為 9,800 萬美元，年增 8%，總毛利率從 30% 擴大至 37%。

We also posted $8 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, up from a loss of $12 million from continuing operations in the prior year. This improvement in profitability is the direct result of actions we've taken over the last year to align the business with changing market conditions. We are not out of the woods yet, but we are highly encouraged by the momentum we are seeing in top-of-funnel as well as sequential market share gains this quarter. We'll continue to make thoughtful choices to position the business for profitability while being ready for when the market rebounds.

我們也公佈了本季調整後 EBITDA 800 萬美元，高於上一年持續營運虧損 1,200 萬美元。獲利能力的提高是我們去年為使業務適應不斷變化的市場條件而採取的行動的直接結果。我們尚未走出困境，但我們對本季漏斗頂部的勢頭以及市場份額的連續增長感到非常鼓舞。我們將繼續做出深思熟慮的選擇，以實現業務盈利，同時為市場反彈做好準備。

Turning to our segment results, real estate services revenue, which includes our brokerage and partner businesses, generated $178 million in revenue, down 16% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue, or revenue from home sales closed by our own agents, was down 18%, on a 28% decrease in brokerage transactions offset by a 14% increase in brokerage revenue per transaction. The increase in revenue per transaction was driven by the elimination of our homebuyer commission refund, revenue from concierge renovations and a 4% increase in average home prices for brokerage transactions. Revenue from our partners increased 30%, on a 24% increase in transactions and a mix shift to higher value houses.

就我們的分部業績而言，房地產服務收入（包括我們的經紀和合作夥伴業務）產生了 1.78 億美元的收入，年減 16%。經紀收入（即我們自己的代理商完成的房屋銷售收入）下降了 18%，其中經紀交易減少了 28%，但每筆交易的經紀收入增加了 14%，抵消了這一影響。每筆交易收入的成長是由取消購屋者佣金退款、禮賓裝修收入以及經紀交易平均房價上漲 4% 所推動的。來自我們合作夥伴的收入增長了 30%，交易量增長了 24%，並且混合轉向了更高價值的房屋。

Real estate services gross margin was 30.4%, up 440 basis points year-over-year. This was primarily driven by a 510 basis-point decrease in personnel costs and transaction bonuses and a 160 basis-point decrease in tour and field expenses, offset by a 190 basis-point increase in seller home improvement expenses. Total net loss for real estate services in the third quarter was $1 million, up from a net loss of $10 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA was $13 million, up from $4 million in the prior year. The increase was attributable to higher gross margins and lower operating expenses, which more than offset lower revenues.

房地產服務毛利率為30.4%，較去年同期成長440個基點。這主要是由於人員成本和交易獎金下降了 510 個基點，以及巡演和現場費用下降了 160 個基點，但被賣家家居裝修費用增加了 190 個基點所抵消。第三季房地產服務的淨虧損總額為 100 萬美元，高於去年同期的淨虧損 1,000 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1,300 萬美元，高於去年同期的 400 萬美元。這一增長歸因於毛利率的提高和營運費用的降低，這足以抵消收入的下降。

Our rentals segment posted its fourth straight quarter of growth, with revenue of $47 million and growth of 23%. Total net loss for rentals was $13 million, up from a net loss of $20 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was about $600,000. We’d previously said that we expected our rentals business to generate positive adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2023, and we’re pleased to hit this milestone in the third quarter.

我們的租賃業務連續第四個季度實現成長，營收達 4,700 萬美元，成長 23%。租金淨虧損總額為 1,300 萬美元，高於前一年的 2,000 萬美元淨虧損。第三季調整後 EBITDA 約 60 萬美元。我們先前曾表示，我們預計我們的租賃業務將在 2023 年第四季實現調整後的正 EBITDA，我們很高興在第三季達到這一里程碑。

Our mortgage segment generated $33 million in revenue, down 32% year-over-year. This result was slightly below our guidance range, as higher interest rates negatively impacted consumer demand for loans. Mortgage gross margin was 10.0%, up from 9.7% a year ago. Net loss for mortgage was $5 million, which was roughly flat compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $4 million, compared to a $3 million loss in the prior year.

我們的抵押貸款部門產生了 3,300 萬美元的收入，年減 32%。這一結果略低於我們的指導範圍，因為較高的利率對消費者的貸款需求產生了負面影響。房貸毛利率為 10.0%，高於一年前的 9.7%。抵押貸款淨損失為 500 萬美元，與去年基本持平。調整後 EBITDA 損失為 400 萬美元，而前一年為 300 萬美元。

Our other segment generated revenue of $11 million, compared to $7 million in the prior year, as both our title and digital revenue businesses grew. Other segment gross margin was 40.4%, up from 15.0% a year ago. Total net income was $2 million compared to a small net loss in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $3 million compared to flat in the prior year.

隨著我們的標題和數位收入業務的成長，我們的其他部門產生了 1,100 萬美元的收入，而前一年為 700 萬美元。其他分部毛利率為 40.4%，高於一年前的 15.0%。淨利潤總額為 200 萬美元，而前一年略有淨虧損，調整後的 EBITDA 為正 300 萬美元，而前一年則持平。

Turning back to consolidated results, total operating expenses were $124 million, down $11 million year-over-year for our continuing operations. The decrease was primarily attributable to $9 million in lower marketing expenses and $2 million in lower personnel expenses. Net loss was $19 million, compared to a net loss from continuing operations of $46 million in the prior year, or $90 million including discontinued operations. This was better than our $30 million to $21 million loss guidance range due to $6 million gain on the extinguishment of notes, none of which was anticipated in our guidance. Our adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was $8 million, in-line with our guidance range of $4 million to $14 million. Diluted loss per share from continuing operations attributable to common stock was $0.17, compared with $0.43 one year ago.

回到合併業績，我們的持續營運總營運費用為 1.24 億美元，年減 1,100 萬美元。減少的主要原因是行銷費用減少了 900 萬美元，人員費用減少了 200 萬美元。淨虧損為 1,900 萬美元，而上一年持續經營業務淨虧損為 4,600 萬美元，包括終止經營業務在內的淨虧損為 9,000 萬美元。這好於我們 3000 萬至 2100 萬美元的損失指導範圍，因為票據註銷帶來了 600 萬美元的收益，而我們的指導中沒有預期到這些收益。我們來自持續經營業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 800 萬美元，符合我們 400 萬至 1,400 萬美元的指導範圍。普通股持續經營帶來的攤薄每股虧損為 0.17 美元，而一年前為 0.43 美元。

Now turning to our financial expectations for the fourth quarter as well as our longer range profitability targets: To begin, I wanted to note that at the end of October we closed on a $250 million term loan facility which gives us flexibility going into what continues to be an uncertain year for the housing market. We now have more than enough cash and liquidity to cover our debt maturities for the next three years, which also gives ample time to generate cash to address later dated maturities. Our expectations for the fourth quarter have come down since our August earnings call, with higher interest rates weighing on

現在轉向我們對第四季度的財務預期以及我們的長期盈利目標：首先，我想指出的是，在10 月底，我們完成了2.5 億美元的定期貸款安排，這使我們能夠靈活地處理繼續發生的事情。對於房地產市場來說，這是充滿不確定性的一年。我們現在擁有足夠的現金和流動性來償還未來三年的債務到期，這也為我們提供了充足的時間來產生現金來解決較晚到期的問題。自 8 月的財報電話會議以來，我們對第四季度的預期有所下降，利率上升帶來壓力

transaction volumes. Even so, we are still working towards our goal to achieve adjusted EBITDA breakeven on a trailing 12-month basis in the first half of 2024. Our second profitability target, which was to be net income positive in 2024, may not be achievable given the higher interest expense we expect on our term loan facility, but we’ll still expect to see a meaningful improvement in net income in 2024 compared to 2023.

交易量。即便如此，我們仍在努力實現我們的目標，即在 2024 年上半年實現過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 盈虧平衡。我們的第二個盈利目標是在 2024 年實現淨利潤為正，但鑑於我們預計定期貸款便利的利息費用會更高，但我們仍預期2024 年淨利將較2023 年顯著改善。

Our guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023 reflects stabilizing revenues, with total revenue from continuing operations declining just 5% on the low end and growing 2% on the high end. Real estate services revenues are expected to decline between 13% and 6%, though we expect total gross profit for the segment to grow year-over-year with gross margins expanding 200 to 500 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Rentals revenue is expected to continue to grow, with year-over-year growth between 19% and 22%. Mortgage revenue is expected to decline 8% on the low end and grow 2% on the high end. Finally, other segment revenue is expected to grow between 49% and 55%.

我們對 2023 年第四季的指導反映了收入的穩定，持續經營業務的總收入在低端僅下降 5%，在高端增長 2%。房地產服務收入預計將下降 13% 至 6%，但我們預計該部門的總毛利將同比增長，毛利率將較 2022 年第四季度擴大 200 至 500 個基點。租賃收入預計將繼續增長，同比增長在19%至22%之間。抵押貸款收入預計在低端下降 8%，在高端增長 2%。最後，其他部門的收入預計將成長 49% 至 55%。

Total net loss is expected to be between $27 million and $18 million, compared to net loss of $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. This guidance includes approximately $27 million in gains on the extinguishment of notes, which are included in net loss but excluded from adjusted EBITDA. These gains are associated with the notes repurchased from Apollo as disclosed in the 8-K we issued.

淨虧損總額預計在2,700 萬美元至1,800 萬美元之間，而2022 年第四季的淨虧損為6,200 萬美元。本指引包括約2,700 萬美元的票據註銷收益，這些收益包含在淨虧損中，但不包括在內來自調整後的 EBITDA。這些收益與我們發行的 8-K 中揭露的從 Apollo 回購的票據相關。

Adjusted EBITDA loss from continuing operations is expected to be between $19 million and $9 million, which at the high end would be an improvement of more than $30 million compared to Q4 2022 continuing operations, or an improvement of $55 million including the prior year loss from discontinued operations.

持續經營業務調整後的EBITDA 損失預計在1,900 萬美元至900 萬美元之間，與2022 年第四季的持續經營業務相比，最高將減少3,000 萬美元以上，或包括上一年因持續經營業務造成的損失在內，減少5,500 萬美元。已停止營運。

Glenn noted in his remarks, the housing market is near rock bottom, but we believe our Q3 results and Q4 outlook demonstrate our ability to manage the business along the path to profitability in spite of the challenging market, and we believe improvements we’re making to enhance both profitability and resilience will benefit the business for years to come.

格倫在演講中指出，房地產市場已接近谷底，但我們相信我們第三季度的業績和第四季度的前景表明，儘管市場充滿挑戰，但我們有能力沿著盈利之路管理業務，我們相信我們的改進提高盈利能力和彈性的努力將使企業在未來幾年受益。

And now let’s take your questions.

現在讓我們來回答大家的問題。

In the third quarter of 2023, we bought $36 million of 2025 debt for $29 million, leaving $235 million remaining. Then at the end of October, we secured a $250 million loan from Apollo Global Management, which we can use to retire the remainder of our 2025 debt, giving ourselves more time to develop a significantly profitable business before our 2027 convertible notes are due. The share of home sales brokered by our own agents and through referrals to our partner agents also increased from 0.75% in the second quarter of 2023 to 0.78% in the third quarter.

2023 年第三季度，我們以 2,900 萬美元購買了 2025 年債務中的 3,600 萬美元，剩下 2.35 億美元。然後在10 月底，我們從阿波羅全球管理公司獲得了2.5 億美元的貸款，我們可以用這筆貸款償還2025 年剩餘的債務，讓我們有更多的時間在2027 年可轉換票據到期之前發展利潤豐厚的業務。由我們自己的經紀人代理以及透過推薦給我們的合作夥伴經紀人代理的房屋銷售份額也從 2023 年第二季的 0.75% 增加到第三季的 0.78%。

Our share is still below its level from a year ago as we haven't fully recovered from the share loss in the first half of 2023 due to layoffs in the closure of RedfinNow, but we're glad to be growing again. For the first time since our earnings call discussing results from the second quarter of 2022, our quarterly guidance forecast the possibility of year-over-year revenue growth. Any growth should be very profitable as every one of our businesses has gotten more efficient, none more so than our core real estate services business.

我們的份額仍低於一年前的水平，因為我們尚未完全從 2023 年上半年因 RedfinNow 關閉而裁員而造成的份額損失中恢復，但我們很高興能夠再次增長。自從我們的財報電話會議討論 2022 年第二季的業績以來，我們的季度指引首次預測了營收年增的可能性。任何成長都應該是非常有利可圖的，因為我們的每項業務都變得更加高效，尤其是我們的核心房地產服務業務。

Despite Real Estate Services third quarter transactions declining 20% year-over-year, in line with the housing downturn and revenues declining by 16%, adjusted EBITDA improved by $9 million. There will still be ups and downs, but mostly, we plan to keep drawing visitors away from rival sites due to the addition of rentals and now new construction listings. As we recruit a more sales-driven agent with completely variable compensation, we also expect to take more sales from other brokers. We're getting more gross profit from less revenue, in part because of increasing contributions from high-margin businesses.

儘管房地產服務公司第三季交易量年減 20%，與房地產市場低迷和收入下降 16% 一致，但調整後的 EBITDA 卻成長了 900 萬美元。仍然會有起起落落，但最重要的是，由於租金的增加和現在的新建築列表，我們計劃繼續吸引遊客遠離競爭對手的網站。當我們招募一個更具銷售驅動力且薪酬完全可變的代理人時，我們也期望從其他經紀人那裡獲得更多的銷售。我們從更少的收入中獲得了更多的毛利，部分原因是高利潤業務的貢獻不斷增加。

The simplest, most significant change in our strategy has been to become more digital by routing more real estate services demand to partners instead of employees and by building our rentals marketplace. This strategy has led to the formation of several new digital businesses, still small enough to be grouped with title forward in our other segment. That segment grew 54% and generated more than $3 million in third quarter adjusted EBITDA, up from roughly $50,000 in the third quarter of 2022. Those profits are largely the result of businesses we launched in the second quarter of 2022, a mortgage marketplace for connecting redfin.com visitors to lenders and display ads on redfin.com.

我們策略中最簡單、最重要的變化是透過將更多的房地產服務需求轉移給合作夥伴而不是員工以及建立我們的租賃市場來變得更加數位化。這項策略導致了幾個新的數位業務的形成，這些業務仍然很小，可以與我們其他領域的所有權歸為一類。該細分市場成長了54%，第三季調整後EBITDA 產生了超過300 萬美元，高於2022 年第三季的約5 萬美元。這些利潤主要歸功於我們在2022 年第二季推出的業務，這是一個用於連接redfin.com 訪客訪問貸方並在 redfin.com 上展示廣告。

We expect to develop more sources of digital revenue over the next year. Just last week, redfin.com published the first batch of new construction listings from Zillow, which we expect to add more than $750,000 in profit per quarter. These digital businesses are only one reason why Redfin's overall gross margins improved from 30% in the third quarter of 2022 to 37% in the third quarter of 2023. Within real estate services over that time, gross margins improved from 26% to 30%. Just as important, Redfin has made ourselves less sensitive to housings ups and downs. Even as we've developed at one digital revenue stream after another, we've gotten out of a business that involves holding hundreds of millions of dollars in houses and launched a pilot eliminating agent salaries.

我們預計明年將開發更多的數位收入來源。就在上週，redfin.com 公佈了 Zillow 的第一批新建建築清單，我們預計每季將增加超過 75 萬美元的利潤。這些數位業務只是Redfin 整體毛利率從2022 年第三季的30% 提高到2023 年第三季的37% 的原因之一。在此期間，在房地產服務領域，毛利率從26% 提高到30% 。同樣重要的是，Redfin 降低了我們對房價漲跌的敏感度。儘管我們已經在一個又一個的數位收入來源上發展，但我們已經退出了一項涉及持有數億美元房屋的業務，並啟動了一項取消經紀人工資的試點。

While some of our rivals have made a virtue of spending, Redfin is proud of how quickly and thoroughly we've restructured ourselves to be faster, more efficient and more competitive. Few companies that have gone through that process have ever wanted to go back. The downturn has made us stronger. Redfin will become more digital over time, but only where it makes sense, where our own employees can serve our audience better with more profits, we will. We believe having that flexibility when many businesses are either completely reliant on partners or handle virtually every customer in themselves will make us more profitable over time, and we'll have more opportunities to earn money from our audience as that audience grows.

雖然我們的一些競爭對手已經透過支出獲得了美譽，但 Redfin 為我們能夠如此迅速和徹底地重組自己以變得更快、更有效率和更具競爭力而感到自豪。很少經歷過這過程的公司願意回去。低迷使我們變得更加堅強。隨著時間的推移，Redfin 將變得更加數位化，但只有在有意義的情況下，在我們自己的員工能夠更好地為我們的受眾提供更多利潤的情況下，我們才會這樣做。我們相信，當許多企業要么完全依賴合作夥伴，要么自己處理幾乎所有客戶時，擁有這種靈活性將使我們隨著時間的推移獲得更多利潤，並且隨著受眾的增長，我們將有更多機會從受眾賺錢。

Comparing the third quarter of 2022 and 2023, visitors to redfin.com grew by 1%. This was the first year-over-year gain in 2023. This gain has been the result of our increasing ability to compete for traffic against our 2 historical rivals, Zillow and realtor.com. According to Comscore data, the GAAP and year-over-year visitor growth between Redfin and these sites averaged 11 points in the third quarter. We'll continue measuring our progress against our long-time rivals, but have also begun monitoring traffic to CoStar's homes.com, which has benefited from a major ad campaign since the second quarter of 2023 that Redfin's growth came in the face of this campaign and with U.S. home sales still falling, makes it all the more impressive.

與 2022 年第三季和 2023 年相比，redfin.com 的訪客成長了 1%。這是 2023 年首次同比增長。這一增長是我們與兩個歷史競爭對手 Zillow 和 realtor.com 競爭流量的能力不斷增強的結果。根據 Comscore 數據，第三季 Redfin 與這些網站之間的 GAAP 和同比訪客成長率平均為 11 個點。我們將繼續衡量我們與長期競爭對手相比的進展，但也開始監控CoStar 的Homes.com 的流量，該網站受益於自2023 年第二季度以來的一場大型廣告活動，Redfin 的成長是在這場活動中實現的由於美國房屋銷售仍在下降，這一點更加令人印象深刻。

We attribute our success to a better search experience. We're still drawing more visitors from search insulins like Google and still improving the listing recommendations that keep visitors coming back for more. But the most fundamental improvement may be in how we present search results and a fee that combines listings with market news and agent insights. This growth in Redfin's audience, especially among people looking at rental properties is only one reason rent earned its first quarterly profit since Redfin acquired rent in April 2021. The revenue book per salesperson has increased 362% since the third quarter of 2021 when rent's new leader came on board.

我們將我們的成功歸功於更好的搜尋體驗。我們仍在透過Google等搜尋胰島素吸引更多訪客，並仍在改進清單推薦，以吸引訪客回訪更多。但最根本的改進可能在於我們呈現搜尋結果的方式以及將清單與市場新聞和代理商見解相結合的費用。 Redfin 受眾的成長，尤其是關注租賃房產的人群的成長，只是Rent 自Redfin 於2021 年4 月收購Rent 以來首次實現季度盈利的原因之一。自2021 年第三季度Rent 成為新的領頭羊以來，每個銷售人員的收入增加了362%上船了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jason Helfstein 和 Oppenheimer。

Glenn, I wanted to go into a little more detail about the West Coast agent change. So will this apply to all agents in the market? I guess the San Francisco and I think L.A. as well or just the new agents maybe talk about like the comp split? And then what's the financial impact if you decide to roll this out more broadly.

格倫，我想更詳細地介紹一下西海岸經紀人變更的情況。那麼這是否適用於市場上的所有代理商？我想舊金山和洛杉磯也是如此，或者只是新經紀人可能會談論補償分割？如果您決定更廣泛地推廣這一點，會對財務產生什麼影響。

Jason, it will apply to all San Francisco and LA agents, not just the new ones we hire or not just the cohort of agents who choose that plan. So we do not know exactly what the implications will be. That's why we're running it as a pilot, but we expect that it will increase gross profit and that it will be largely gross margin neutral and the x-factor is just how many deals are self-sourced at the extreme. If you imagine that we hired agents who didn't close any Redfin source deals, well, then that would be a very different outcome than if they had the mix they do today where about 2/3 or 3/4 of their deals are Redfin sourced.

傑森，它將適用於所有舊金山和洛杉磯的代理商，而不僅僅是我們僱用的新代理商或選擇該計劃的代理商群體。所以我們並不確切知道這會產生什麼影響。這就是為什麼我們將其作為試點來運行，但我們預計它將增加毛利，並且毛利率基本上是中性的，而未知因素就是極端情況下有多少交易是自營的。如果你想像我們僱用的代理商沒有完成任何 Redfin 來源交易，那麼這將是一個非常不同的結果，如果他們擁有今天所做的組合，其中大約 2/3 或 3/4 的交易是 Redfin來源。

And so it really just depends on the mix. But to the extent that new agents bring in new business, we should have a lower margin only on the incremental revenue. And the goal is to improve the close rate on our high-margin business of closing Redfin source sales.

所以這實際上只取決於組合。但就新代理商帶來新業務而言，我們僅在增量收入上的利潤率應該會較低。我們的目標是提高 Redfin 源頭銷售的高利潤業務的成交率。

And so just to clarify, so effectively, the system will understand if it's a Redfin source deal, they get a lower payout and if they source that they get a higher pay.

因此，為了澄清，系統會有效地了解，如果這是 Redfin 來源交易，他們會獲得較低的付款，如果他們來源，他們會獲得更高的報酬。

That's exactly right. And we have good systems for tracking whether we were the source for a sale. If it starts on our website if it starts from an e-mail campaign.

完全正確。我們擁有良好的系統來追蹤我們是否是銷售來源。如果它從我們的網站開始，如果它從電子郵件活動開始。

Can you disclose the splits or you don't want to do that?

你能透露分裂情況嗎？或者你不想這樣做？

Well, no, we have. So there's a post announcing list in great detail to the agents we're trying to recruit. It's on our blog site, but the split is as high as 75% for self-source sales. And since we still offer benefits and cover marketing expenses, that's effectively a split like 90%, but it's less than half of that or about half of that for Redfin source sales. So this has 2 advantages. First of all, we think we'll be able to recruit agents who bring their own book of business, but are also quite effective at closing luxury sales because the issue in these high-priced California markets is that we've had a low close rate on $1 million-plus opportunities, but also it should make the business, as we noted in the script, more resilient than in the downturn, there will be risk shared between the agents and Redfin wears today, we're paying salaries through thick and thin.

嗯，不，我們有。因此，有一個帖子詳細公佈了我們正在招募的代理商名單。它在我們的部落格網站上，但自營銷售的分成高達 75%。由於我們仍然提供福利並支付行銷費用，這實際上是 90% 的分割，但不到 Redfin 來源銷售的一半或大約一半。所以這有兩個優點。首先，我們認為我們將能夠招募擁有自己的業務簿的代理商，但在完成奢侈品銷售方面也非常有效，因為這些高價加州市場的問題是我們的成交價較低利率超過100 萬美元的機會，但正如我們在腳本中指出的那樣，它也應該使業務比經濟低迷時期更具彈性，今天，代理商和Redfin 之間將分擔風險，我們將通過厚厚的方式支付工資又薄。

Just one other comment, Jason. I think the other benefit that may be obvious to us, but less intuitive to analysts is it's just very easy for a traditional agent to understand this compensation plan. We had to explain so much talking about salary and benefits and all these other things. And now when you just say, here's the split, people immediately recognize, oh, that's a good deal. It's caused a lot of chatter in the industry. Plenty of people who left Redfin looking for higher splits called me and said, I want to come back.

只是另一則評論，傑森。我認為另一個對我們來說可能很明顯但對分析師來說不太直觀的好處是傳統代理商很容易理解這個補償計劃。我們不得不解釋很多關於工資和福利以及所有其他事情的事情。現在，當你說，這是分裂時，人們立即意識到，哦，這是一個很好的協議。此事在業界引起不少議論。很多離開 Redfin 尋找更高分叉的人打電話給我說，我想回來。

Our next question comes from Tom White with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tom White 和 D.A.戴維森。

This is Wyatt Swanson on for Tom. We just have a follow-up to that Max pay plan. Could you talk a bit about like your ability to expand that program profitably outside of markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles and what you think the mix of Redfin source leads and externally sourced leads would look like in a profitable market?

我是懷亞特·斯旺森 (Wyatt Swanson) 替湯姆發言。我們剛剛制定了最高工資計劃的後續計劃。您能否談談您將該計劃擴展到舊金山和洛杉磯等市場之外並實現盈利的能力，以及您認為 Redfin 來源線索和外部來源線索的組合在盈利市場中會是什麼樣子？

So we have contemplated expanding it across Redfin. The current model, the splits that we've designed will work in any high-priced market, and we'd have to modify that to have it work in a mid-priced or low-priced market, but it's fairly straightforward to scale a pure split model across markets just because it varies with the home price. And so it just almost adapts itself. I think your other question was just why do we think the split will be between Redfin sourced and agent source sales?

因此我們考慮將其擴展到 Redfin 上。目前的模型，我們設計的分離式系統將適用於任何高價市場，我們必須對其進行修改，以使其適用於中價或低價市場，但擴展規模相當簡單。跨市場的純分割模型只是因為它隨房價而變化。所以它幾乎可以自我適應。我認為你的另一個問題是為什麼我們認為 Redfin 來源銷售和代理來源銷售之間會出現分歧？

We really don't know that. Obviously, we want to recruit agents who are really good at closing Redfin Source sales because the higher that close rate is, the more intensely profitable those agents are. The single biggest lever that real estate services has is close rate. The history of 2023 is that we generated so much demand, but had falling close rates offset that. So we want agents who can close Redfin Source sales. But if we get agents who bring a huge book of business to us, I don't think we're going to look that gift horse in the mouth. The goal there was to make a few bucks on each of those sales. And so it should still be incremental to our profits even if that particular segment is lower margin.

我們真的不知道。顯然，我們希望招募真正擅長完成 Redfin Source 銷售的代理商，因為成交率越高，這些代理商的利潤就越高。房地產服務最大的槓桿就是成交率。 2023 年的歷史是，我們產生瞭如此多的需求，但成交價格下降抵消了這一點。因此，我們需要能夠完成 Redfin Source 銷售的代理商。但如果我們的代理商為我們帶來了大量的業務，我認為我們不會對這份禮物視而不見。他們的目標是從每次銷售中賺到一些錢。因此，即使該特定細分市場的利潤率較低，它仍然應該增加我們的利潤。

So really, it just depends on how many agents on market recruits and how many customers each of those agents brings. And that's what we're going to report on every quarter as we start getting Redfin Max results.

所以實際上，這只取決於市場上招募了多少代理商以及每個代理商帶來了多少客戶。這就是我們每季開始獲得 Redfin Max 結果時報告的內容。

Our next question comes from Bernard McTernan with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自尼達姆公司的伯納德·麥克特南。

Great. To stick on the Redfin Max theme here. I would love to know just how long you're planning on testing for? And then what's the early traction that you're gaining with agents? What's the value proposition that's hitting, whether it's the support, whether it's the Redfin listing? Just would love kind of like a rank order in terms of what's mattering the most of the agents who are coming back to you.

偉大的。在這裡堅持 Redfin Max 主題。我很想知道您計劃測試多長時間？那麼您在代理商中獲得的早期吸引力是什麼？正在發生的價值主張是什麼，是否是支持，是否是 Redfin 上市？只是希望能夠按照排名順序來確定那些回到您身邊的代理商最重要的事情。

Sure. So the value proposition is the best of both worlds at a high level, which means I get to bring my customers over, but I also get access to red fence customers. So access to the opportunities generated by our site is first, but also what we call business in a box, which is being set up for scale from day 1. So you come in, you have a coordinator to help you close sales. You have the showing assistants, which is our network of contractors who host property tours. You just have everything taken care of for you so that you can focus on developing your own network and closing Redfin sales.

當然。因此，價值主張在高水準上是兩全其美的，這意味著我可以吸引我的客戶，但我也可以接觸到紅柵欄客戶。因此，首先要獲得我們網站產生的機會，同時也是我們所說的“盒子裡的業務”，它從第一天起就按規模進行設置。因此，您進來後，您將有一名協調員來幫助您完成銷售。您有展示助理，這是我們舉辦房產參觀的承包商網路。只需一切都已為您處理好，您就可以專注於開發自己的網路並完成 Redfin 銷售。

So the early response to that has been good. The agents we're talking to are successful. So they're not coming to us out of desperation. They're really talking to their accountant and comparing what they could earn on the outside world and what they could earn at Redfin and then they're making the decision to come over. The length of the Redfin test could be as short as weeks for rolling out to a few additional markets to roll out nationwide. That would be more like a year. We're trying to work backwards from what are all the things we have to understand to be able to roll this out to every market.

所以早期對此的反應很好。我們正在交談的代理商都是成功的。所以他們並不是出於絕望才來找我們的。他們實際上是在與會計師交談，比較他們在外面的世界可以賺的錢和在 Redfin 可以賺到的錢，然後他們決定過來。 Redfin 測試的時間可能會縮短至幾週，以便在其他幾個市場上推廣，然後在全國推廣。那更像是一年。我們正在嘗試從我們必須了解的所有事情開始逆向工作，以便能夠將其推廣到每個市場。

You should just remember that for us to get a significant financial impact, we don't have to reach that many markets because the big high-priced markets are where we have the most agents and the most gross commissions. So we think that this could have meaningful financial impact by the summer, and we think we'd be in a good position to make decisions about whether to roll it out everywhere by then. Our assumption has been that this is part of our future. Whether it's part of every market's future or just part of the big markets future, TBD.

您應該記住，為了獲得重大的財務影響，我們不必進入那麼多市場，因為大型高價市場是我們擁有最多代理商和最高佣金的地方。因此，我們認為這可能會在今年夏天產生有意義的財務影響，我們認為屆時我們將能夠決定是否在各地推廣它。我們的假設是這是我們未來的一部分。無論它是每個市場未來的一部分還是只是大市場未來的一部分，待定。

Understood. Appreciate it. And then just a follow-up on the continued guidance. We're expecting to get to EBITDA positive by the end of the first half of next year. Just if you could just discuss kind of any other levers you can pull in the business while you're waiting for the housing market to get back either from a cost side or plans of higher returns on investment that could help you reach that goal.

明白了。欣賞它。然後只是對持續指導的後續行動。我們預計到明年上半年末將達到 EBITDA 為正值。只是如果您可以討論一下在您等待房地產市場從成本方面或更高的投資回報計劃中恢復時可以拉動業務的任何其他槓桿，這可以幫助您實現該目標。

Sure. So a few comments there. I think one critical part is continuing to develop the digital businesses that we talked about on this call, continuing to expand the revenues we earn from advertising and other offerings on redfin.com, continue to grow. Our rentals business will be an important part of that. And then we do expect that we'll continue to have the opportunity to gain market share through the first part of next year into the year. That will be important in terms of building a stronger revenue base.

當然。所以有一些評論。我認為一個關鍵部分是繼續發展我們在這次電話會議上談到的數位業務，繼續擴大我們從 redfin.com 上的廣告和其他產品中獲得的收入，繼續成長。我們的租賃業務將是其中的重要組成部分。我們確實預計，從明年上半年到今年，我們將繼續有機會獲得市場份額。這對於建立更強大的收入基礎非常重要。

And I do think in the last part, we are, as Glenn mentioned on the call, paying an awful lot of attention to costs. We're deferring costs at this point until we can see more clearly what the housing market looks like. And we do have a variety of levers we could pull on the cost side of things. So we'll pay attention to that and only decide to move forward with those costs when we can see our way clear to daylight.

我確實認為在最後一部分中，正如格倫在電話中提到的那樣，我們非常關注成本。我們目前正在推遲成本，直到我們能夠更清楚地看到房地產市場的情況。我們確實有多種手段可以在成本方面發揮作用。因此，我們會注意這一點，並且只有在我們能夠清楚地看到我們的道路時才決定繼續支付這些費用。

Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。

I want to maybe talk a little bit more about the NAR lawsuit has been the majority of conversations this week and last week. So I understood how the digital aspects of the brokerage you guys have built and give you an edge in that kind of environment where buyers have more tools for themselves. But can you expand on this a little bit. A, I thought the comments were interesting on potentially I think you implied licensing, some of this to other seller agents going to bring more sellers or more listings to Redfin, do you think?

我想多談談 NAR 訴訟，這是本周和上週的主要話題。因此，我了解你們所建立的經紀業務的數位化方面如何為您在買家擁有更多工具的環境中提供優勢。但你能擴展一下這一點嗎？答，我認為這些評論很有趣，我認為您可能暗示了許可，其中一些是向其他賣家代理提供的，將為 Redfin 帶來更多賣家或更多列表，您認為嗎？

And then the offset here is that you make a good amount of money from buyer agencies, right? So if buyer agencies, I'm sure you don't expect them to go away completely, but if they are reduced kind of in a dramatic way, does that have a negative impact? And then on the same topic, you guys were in the second round or the copycat 1 were listed as in that one, too. And I just want to maybe get a comment on how you think about that and what's the kind of potential liability could be out of that as much as you could comment on it. I understand it's a legal matter.

然後這裡的抵銷是你從買家仲介賺了很多錢，對嗎？因此，如果買家代理機構，我相信您不會期望它們完全消失，但如果它們以戲劇性的方式減少，會產生負面影響嗎？然後在同一主題上，你們進入了第二輪，或者模仿者 1 也被列為第二輪。我只是想聽聽您對此有何看法，以及您可能對此承擔的潛在責任是什麼。我明白這是一個法律問題。

Sure. Well, why don't we talk about the copycat lawsuit first, mostly to say that we're not going to talk about it. As we emphasized in our earnings remarks, this company exists to give consumers a better deal for 18 years. We have busted our tail to work with the industry to find different ways to save people money, every possible configuration of a business that could put the customer first, we've tried it. And we are absolutely proud of everything that we've done, which means we have very good defenses for this lawsuit.

當然。好吧，我們為什麼不先談談山寨訴訟，主要是說我們不打算談論它。正如我們在財報評論中所強調的那樣，這家公司的存在是為了給消費者更好的交易 18 年。我們竭盡全力與業界合作，尋找不同的方法來為人們省錢，每一種可能的業務配置都可以把客戶放在第一位，我們已經嘗試過。我們對我們所做的一切感到非常自豪，這意味著我們對這場訴訟有很好的辯護。

So I think your other questions were about just how we could leverage our platform in different ways. So obviously, it's going to be important for us to be able to use that platform to sell our own listings, but we do have a vast network of other agents who work with Redfin as our partners, and it may be that they would also want to use that platform to sell their listings directly to consumers. And so today, if there is someone who's trying to buy a Redfin listing or the listing of a Redfin partner, we route them to a buyer's agent, but we may instead say, we can route them directly to the listing agent, and there are various ways that we can monetize that.

所以我認為你的其他問題是關於我們如何以不同的方式利用我們的平台。顯然，能夠使用該平台來銷售我們自己的房源對我們來說非常重要，但我們確實擁有一個龐大的其他代理商網絡，他們與 Redfin 合作作為我們的合作夥伴，而且他們可能也希望使用該平台直接向消費者銷售他們的商品。因此，今天，如果有人試圖購買 Redfin 列表或 Redfin 合作夥伴的列表，我們會將他們路由到買方代理，但我們可能會說，我們可以將他們直接路由到列表代理，並且有我們可以通過多種方式將其貨幣化。

So the key assets that we have are, first of all, this website and then all these tools that we've built over many years to make it easy for a buyer to set up his own tours to make it easy for a buyer to prepare his own offers to look at his own comparable sales and come up with its own price. And so we just think we're better positioned than anyone else. We take it as a given that several trends are going to continue. The first is that all year and probably last year too, commissions have been significantly compressing. That will continue.

因此，我們擁有的關鍵資產首先是這個網站，然後是我們多年來構建的所有這些工具，以便買家可以輕鬆地設置自己的旅行團，從而使買家可以輕鬆地做好準備他自己提出查看自己的可比較銷售額並提出自己的價格。所以我們只是認為我們比其他任何人都處於更好的位置。我們認為有幾個趨勢將會持續下去。首先，全年（也可能是去年）佣金一直在大幅壓縮。這將繼續下去。

Dual agency has increased in part because inventory has just been low. Because of all the attention this case is getting, many people are going to become aware of the fact that hiring a buyer's agent is a choice. And for many people, that may be a good choice, but other people may choose not to do that. And then the third thing that's really changed in the industry, especially over the past few months has been the proliferation of buyers agency agreements. The old saying was the buyers slide rather than decide. But now agents are putting that question explicitly to the consumer, do you want to hire me? Do you want my representation? Am I worth the money?

雙重代理的增加部分是因為庫存一直很低。由於此案引起了廣泛關注，許多人將意識到聘請買方代理人是一種選擇。對於許多人來說，這可能是一個不錯的選擇，但其他人可能會選擇不這樣做。該行業真正發生的第三件事，特別是在過去的幾個月裡，是買家代理協議的激增。老話是買家滑動而不是決定。但現在代理商明確地向消費者提出這個問題，你想僱用我嗎？你想要我的代表嗎？我值這個錢嗎？

And that is very healthy for the industry. It's part of this sales initiative that we touched on only briefly in the scripted part of the call where we're now asking buyers to sign up with Redfin and offering them a commission refund when they do. So just in general, these are all trends that were already happening in the world. It's very unpredictable what will happen next. We think we're the most agile player with the largest digital asset among any brokers. And so the more the industry changes, the better position will be.

這對這個行業來說是非常健康的。這是我們在電話會議的腳本部分中簡單提及的銷售計劃的一部分，我們現在要求買家註冊 Redfin，並在註冊時向他們提供佣金退款。總的來說，這些都是世界上已經發生的趨勢。接下來會發生什麼事是非常難以預測的。我們認為我們是所有經紀商中最敏捷、擁有最大數位資產的參與者。因此，產業變化越多，地位就會越好。

And if we have to make money by being listing agents instead of buyers agents, if we have to make money from being digital rather than focusing on service, I think we've demonstrated over the past year, dang, we can move fast to do that.

如果我們必須透過成為上市代理商而不是買家代理商來賺錢，如果我們必須透過數位化而不是專注於服務來賺錢，我認為我們在過去的一年中已經證明，我們可以快速採取行動。

Glenn. That's helpful. Maybe a follow-up from the comments you were making about home prices might be softening, you're seeing some signals. Can you expand on that a little bit? What the signals you're seeing are? And obviously, that's a really good thing for affordability, but sliding home prices also come with various other consequences for those that are looking to sell their homes. So I just wanted to get maybe some expanded thoughts on that point.

格倫.這很有幫助。也許您對房價的評論可能會走軟，您會看到一些訊號。能稍微擴充一下嗎？您看到的訊號是什麼？顯然，這對於負擔能力來說確實是一件好事，但房價下滑也會為那些想要出售房屋的人帶來各種其他後果。所以我只是想就這一點得到一些擴展的想法。

Well, first of all, I do see falling home prices is the only way to break the log jam. So we can argue about the social benefit of having affordable housing. That's a mixed bag in American politics because so many homeowners want to see their prices remain high. But for Redfin, just commercially and for any broker that depends on home sales, sure, we might make 1% less revenue per transaction because commissions are a percentage of the sale price, but transactions are not going to go up in a significant, meaningful way until prices become more affordable. The basis for our believing that, that could start to be happening are the following.

嗯，首先，我確實認為房價下跌是打破原木堵塞的唯一方法。因此，我們可以爭論擁有經濟適用房的社會效益。美國政治中的情況好壞參半，因為許多房主希望看到自己的房價維持在高位。但對於Redfin 來說，就商業而言，對於任何依賴房屋銷售的經紀人來說，當然，我們每筆交易的收入可能會減少1%，因為佣金是銷售價格的一定百分比，但交易不會大幅增長。直到價格變得更實惠。我們相信這可能開始發生的基礎如下。

And I want to caveat this by saying this is the last element added to the script, the most hotly debated. Some of it is just based on my own personal conviction that I think something might -- there might be a disturbance in the force as they say. So number one, we've just had more listing consultations lately. So generally, demand has been pretty good on the Redfin side as we emphasized, we've had traffic and good pull-through from traffic into inquiries, but that's been especially strong on the sell side, which is unusual. We've really been inventory locked for a long time.

我想警告一下，這是添加到腳本中的最後一個元素，也是爭論最激烈的元素。其中一些只是基於我個人的信念，我認為可能會發生一些事情——正如他們所說，部隊可能會出現騷亂。第一，我們最近剛進行了更多的上市諮詢。因此，總的來說，正如我們所強調的那樣，Redfin 方面的需求相當不錯，我們擁有流量，並且從流量到詢價的拉動良好，但賣方的需求尤其強勁，這是不尋常的。我們的庫存確實已經被鎖定很久了。

Number two, price drops have been strong. They're always strong in the fall because there's a bunch of inventory that didn't sell and it gets marked down, but it's stronger this year than at any point since 2015. And then the last part is just anecdotal and it's based in part on my own long experience here at Redfin that once there is any drop in prices at all, that brings more sellers out because right now, they think, well, time is on my side, if I wait until next year, maybe interest rates will ease and prices will either be the same or higher.

第二，價格下跌幅度很大。它們在秋季總是很強勁，因為有大量庫存沒有賣出去，而且價格被降價，但今年的庫存比 2015 年以來的任何時候都要強勁。最後一部分只是軼事，部分基於根據我自己在Redfin的長期經驗，一旦價格出現任何下降，就會吸引更多的賣家，因為現在，他們認為，好吧，時間站在我這邊，如果我等到明年，也許利率會輕鬆度和價格將相同或更高。

But if suddenly you get in a world where wow, I want to sell now because the market might get worse. I think that will get sellers off the fence. So look, there's a world where a catastrophic drop in prices really freezes up the market, too. But I think some softening in home prices is just like softening in prices and the economy across the board. It just gives the economy, which has been overheated a little breathing room.

但如果突然你進入一個哇的世界，我想現在就賣掉，因為市場可能會變得更糟。我認為這會讓賣家不再猶豫。所以看，在這個世界上，價格的災難性下跌確實也凍結了市場。但我認為房價的一些疲軟就像價格和經濟的全面疲軟。它只是給過熱的經濟一點喘息的空間。

Our next question is from John Campbell with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·坎貝爾和史蒂芬斯。

This is Jonathan Bass on for John Campbell. You guys have obviously done a great job turning the rentals business around. I'm hoping you can help unpack some of that strength we've seen. So how much of it would you accredit our self-help and then maybe share gains versus the macro?

我是喬納森‧巴斯 (Jonathan Bass)，替約翰‧坎貝爾 (John Campbell) 發言。顯然，你們在扭轉租賃業務方面做得非常出色。我希望你能幫助我們釋放出一些我們已經看到的力量。那麼，您會在多大程度上認可我們的自助，然後也許會分享相對於宏觀的收益呢？

Some of it is undoubtedly macro, but that business is just executing better because I actually think the conditions were better 6 or 12 months ago than they are now. And sales productivity is just through the roof. So John has done a really good job getting that sales force to execute. We're generating more demand where it matters the most, just lining that up against the customers we have who need demand. So, I do think there's just much better execution than there was before. And because there was so much foundational work that we had to do with the brand and renaming the company rents and unifying the code base between Apartment Guide and rent.com. We just now have a very clear feel to do some things where Redfin has deep conviction that it can drive traffic.

其中一些無疑是宏觀的，但該業務只是執行得更好，因為我實際上認為 6 或 12 個月前的情況比現在更好。而且銷售效率也剛好達到最高峰。因此，約翰在讓銷售人員執行任務方面做得非常出色。我們在最重要的地方產生更多的需求，只是將其與我們有需求的客戶相匹配。所以，我確實認為執行力比以前好很多。因為有太多的基礎工作，我們必須對品牌進行大量的基礎工作，將公司重新命名為rents，並統一Apartment Guide 和rent.com 之間的程式碼庫。我們現在非常清楚地感覺到要做一些 Redfin 堅信可以推動流量的事情。

So sometimes you make speculative bets where you wonder, will anyone really like this. But when it's just firing up the e-mail campaigns and doing link building and working with recommendations, which have worked over and over again to bring people back to the site, it gives us good confidence that we can keep it going. So we just inherited a business that was broken in some ways coming out of bankruptcy, and we fixed it. And now I think we can build on that to go on the attack.

因此，有時您會進行投機性賭注，想知道是否有人真的喜歡這個。但是，當它剛剛啟動電子郵件活動、進行連結建立和使用建議時，這些措施一次又一次地讓人們回到網站，這給了我們很大的信心，我們可以繼續下去。所以我們剛剛繼承了一家因破產而在某些方面受損的企業，然後我們修復了它。現在我認為我們可以在此基礎上繼續進攻。

Got it. And then maybe if you could dig a little further into what you guys are doing or what you guys need to do to hit those mortgage and title attach rate goals?

知道了。然後，也許您可以進一步深入了解您正在做什麼，或者您需要做什麼來實現抵押貸款和產權附加率目標？

Some of it is just basic sales execution. It takes time, but you go from market to market, you meet the sales managers, you meet the agents. Sometimes there are agents who consistently are never recommending the equity. They are sales managers, whose whole teams are like that. You sit down and talk to those teams about whether you're really doing what's right for the customer or if another lender is sending you baseball tickets every month. So some of it is that.

其中一些只是基本的銷售執行。這需要時間，但是你從一個市場到另一個市場，你會見到銷售經理，你會見到代理商。有時有些代理人始終不推薦股票。他們是銷售經理，他們的整個團隊都是這樣。您坐下來與這些團隊討論您是否真的在為客戶做正確的事情，或者其他貸方每個月都會向您發送棒球門票。所以其中一些是這樣的。

What's impressive about Bay Equity is just, I thought those guys might rest invest and get very short-term oriented, and they're just animals. They are thinking about all sorts of long-term ways to make lending fundamentally better to lower our cost basis, to make our product more competitive. We just got a great team of people there, and we are really confident that we offer better service than other lenders and a better rate. So it will take time, but that number is going to keep going up. It can never go up to like 50% or 75% because money is a commodity, and there are always going to be some lenders who have a pre-existing relationship with a customer and decide to buy the business. But it can be much higher than it is now. And we're just going to keep grinding it up.

Bay Equity 令人印象深刻的是，我認為那些人可能會停止投資並變得非常短期導向，而他們只是動物。他們正在考慮各種長期方法，從根本上改善貸款，降低我們的成本基礎，使我們的產品更具競爭力。我們在那裡擁有一支優秀的團隊，我們非常有信心能夠提供比其他貸款人更好的服務和更好的利率。所以這需要時間，但這個數字將會繼續上升。它永遠不會上升到 50% 或 75%，因為錢是一種商品，總是會有一些貸款人與客戶已有關係並決定購買該業務。但它可能會比現在高得多。我們將繼續努力。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Jay McCanless。

So I wanted to find out when you talked about possibly deferring some of the costs you normally spend in the first quarter to -- for sales later in the year. Any type of commentary about what percentage maybe of OpEx that would be in a normal year? Or is it going to come out of your cost of goods sold? How should we think about that?

因此，我想知道您何時談到可能將您通常在第一季花費的一些成本推遲到今年稍後的銷售。關於正常年份的營運支出可能佔多少百分比，有什麼類型的評論嗎？還是從您的銷售成本中扣除？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. You should think about it in both places, maybe more so on the operating expense side of things. If you look back at our financial results, you'd see that we often spend marketing dollars in the first part of the year with the expectation they'll pull through later. I think that's a place you'll see us be pretty careful as the year starts including the campaigns we're running and what our plans are there. So we're paying an awful lot of attention to our view on the housing market. And so we can adjust marketing costs.

是的。您應該從兩個方面考慮，也許更應該考慮營運費用方面。如果你回顧我們的財務業績，你會發現我們經常在今年上半年花費行銷資金，並期望它們能在以後渡過難關。我認為，在新年伊始，我們會非常小心，包括我們正在進行的活動以及我們的計劃。因此，我們非常關注我們對房地產市場的看法。這樣我們就可以調整行銷成本。

And then probably the second largest line item on operating expenses just is in head count. So that's another place where you'll see us be pretty cautious about both any kinds of new hires, but also, we're just scrutinizing literally every backfill in the company in those groups to make a good determination about whether that role is really needed moving forward. And then similarly, on cost of revenue until we can see more clearly to the demand patterns on things, we are being cautious about agent hiring and support staff hiring and kind of all those elements. So that we're building the right cost base for the year. So it's across the board, but those will be some of the key areas to call out.

然後，營運費用的第二大項目可能就是人員數量。因此，在另一個地方，您會看到我們對任何類型的新員工都非常謹慎，而且，我們只是仔細審查公司中這些組中的每一個回填人員，以便確定是否真的需要該職位向前推進。同樣，在收入成本方面，在我們能夠更清楚地了解事物的需求模式之前，我們對代理招聘和支援人員招聘以及所有這些要素都持謹慎態度。這樣我們就可以為今年建立正確的成本基礎。所以這是全面的，但這些將是一些需要指出的關鍵領域。

The theme song for this initiative is the who's won't get fooled again. We went through it this year because traffic was just cracking in January 2023. And so we had a good reason to believe that revenues would follow. Rates went up in March. And all this demand just didn't pull through, but we'd already committed some expense. And so we'll be more careful this time and really not only look for more people on the website, more people contacting our agents, but how many are coming back for a second tour, writing an offer, signing a listing agreement?

該倡議的主題曲是「誰不會再被愚弄」。我們今年經歷了這個過程，因為 2023 年 1 月的流量才剛開始成長。所以我們有充分的理由相信收入會隨之而來。三月份房價漲。所有這些需求都沒有實現，但我們已經投入了一些費用。所以這次我們會更加小心，不僅要在網站上尋找更多的人，更多的人聯繫我們的代理商，還要有多少人回來進行第二次巡演，寫出報價，簽署上市協議？

And then my second question, I don't know if you all have broken it down this way, but when you look at who's cutting price, is it across the board? Or are we talking more homes that are listing at 2x or 3x the median price of whatever the market they're in currently?

然後我的第二個問題，不知道大家有沒有這樣分解，但是你看誰在降價，是不是一刀切？或者我們正在討論更多的房屋掛牌價格是當前市場中位價的 2 倍或 3 倍？

Pretty broad. I'm basing this on anecdote. I haven't broken it down into segments, but I've been going around the country, people who aren't selling their house, we used to have to talk them into lowering their price, asking what's going to get better at this time of the year? What's going to change except your price? If you want to remodel the house, maybe we can hold on to this price. Now I think people are saying, I get it.

相當廣泛。我是根據軼事說的。我沒有把它分成幾個部分，但我一直在全國各地走訪，那些不賣房子的人，我們過去常常不得不說服他們降低價格，詢問現在會變得更好今年？除了價格之外還會有什麼變化？如果你想裝修房子，也許我們可以保留這個價格。現在我想人們會說，我明白了。

Our next question comes from John Colantuoni with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

This is Vincent Kardos on for John. Two questions, please. So first, maybe you could share any update you're able to on your outlook for the trajectory of market share? And then second, I know you talked a little bit about how you're going to be pushing out some costs in 1Q later in the year, but maybe any color you can provide on the trajectory of OpEx into 4Q? That would be helpful as well.

這是約翰的文森·卡多斯。請教兩個問題。首先，也許您可以分享一下您對市場份額軌蹟的展望的最新情況？其次，我知道您談到了今年稍後將如何在第一季度推出一些成本，但也許您可以提供有關營運支出進入第四季度的軌蹟的任何資訊？這也會有幫助。

It's really hard to get a read on share because we know about our own sales. We just don't know what the rest of the market is doing. So we get numbers days before you do, just indicating via the MLS and later from the National Association of Realtors, how many sales our competitors got. The open issue for us is rates have really gone up. The market is suffering. Our demand has still been strong. It's just really hard to close that demand. It's a very unpredictable time. And this isn't me being a wean or trying to signal bearishness, it's just being cautious about signing us up for something when we really don't know.

很難了解份額，因為我們了解自己的銷售額。我們只是不知道市場的其他部分在做什麼。因此，我們比您提前幾天獲得數據，僅透過 MLS 以及後來的全國房地產經紀人協會表明我們的競爭對手獲得了多少銷售額。對我們來說，懸而未決的問題是利率確實上漲了。市場正在遭受痛苦。我們的需求仍然強勁。關閉這個需求真的很難。這是一個非常不可預測的時期。這並不是我斷奶或試圖發出悲觀信號，這只是在我們確實不知道的情況下謹慎地與我們簽約。

Historically, our market share from the third quarter to the fourth quarter has either been flat or headed down a little bit. So that would just be the best historical indicator, but there's not a lot more detail than we can provide on that.

從歷史上看，從第三季度到第四季度，我們的市場份額要么持平，要么略有下降。因此，這只是最好的歷史指標，但我們無法提供更多細節。

The whole reason you track share is to avoid seasonality. For whatever reason, our seasonality has always been there on share. It doesn't make any sense, but it's always been true.

追蹤份額的全部原因是為了避免季節性。無論出於何種原因，我們的季節性始終存在於共享中。這沒有任何意義，但它一直是事實。

And then just a comment on operating expenses. There's not a lot more that I can provide than we didn't provide already in the guidance on that. So we provided overall figures on what to expect in that way, but not a whole lot more color I can add to that.

然後只是對營運費用的評論。我能提供的不多於我們在這方面的指南中尚未提供的內容。因此，我們提供了關於這種方式的預期的總體數據，但我無法添加更多的顏色。

I just had one closing comment because there have been some questions about whether we would extend Redfin Max. Just want all the analysts to remember that sometimes our employees listen to these calls. We are not going to expand Redfin Max unless we think it's good for our customers first, but also for our agents that we can serve customers better and everyone can make more money. So we think this can be really good, especially in these coastal markets, but the truest arbiter of our success is going to be the people in L.A. and San Francisco, customers and agents alike say this was awesome. And if they say that, you'll be lining up at the door for this new pay program because we'll all win.

我剛剛發表了一條結束語，因為有人對我們是否會延長 Redfin Max 提出了一些疑問。只是希望所有分析師記住，有時我們的員工會聽取這些電話。我們不會擴大 Redfin Max，除非我們認為這首先對我們的客戶有利，而且對我們的代理商也有利，我們可以更好地為客戶服務，每個人都可以賺更多的錢。所以我們認為這真的很好，特別是在這些沿海市場，但我們成功的最真正的仲裁者將是洛杉磯和舊金山的人們，客戶和代理商都說這太棒了。如果他們這麼說，你就會在門口排隊接受這個新的薪資計劃，因為我們都會贏。

That's it. Thanks for a great third quarter 2023 earnings call.

就是這樣。感謝您召開精彩的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。