(RDFN) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Redfin Corporation Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Redfin Corporation 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。正式介紹後將進行簡短的問答環節。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Meg Nunnally, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thanks [Patoya]. Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO; and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

謝謝[帕托亞]。下午好，歡迎來到 Redfin 截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度財務業績電話會議。我是 Redfin 投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Glenn Kelman；和我們的首席財務官 Chris Nielsen。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today's call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today's call.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們與這些前瞻性陳述相關的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會大不相同。請閱讀並考慮我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。

Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don't undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events. On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com for more information related to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations.

任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新信息或未來事件更新這些陳述。在這次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務業績時提出非 GAAP 措施。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益發布，該發布可在我們的網站 investors.redfin.com 上獲取，以獲取與我們的非 GAAP 指標相關的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關調節。

All comparisons made in the course of this call are against the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated. Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call, and a full transcript and audio replay will also be available soon after the call.

除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議期間進行的所有比較都是與去年同期進行的。最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束前在我們的網站上提供我們準備好的評論的副本，電話會議後不久還將提供完整的文字記錄和音頻重播。

With that, I'll time turn the call over to Glenn.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給格倫。

Thanks, Meg, and hi, everyone. In the first quarter of 2023 Redfin generated $326 million of revenue, exceeding the $307 million to $324 million guidance we gave in our last call, largely on the strength of better-than-expected mortgage and rentals revenues.

謝謝，梅格，大家好。 2023 年第一季度，Redfin 產生了 3.26 億美元的收入，超過了我們在上次電話會議中給出的 3.07 億美元至 3.24 億美元的指導，這主要是由於抵押貸款和租金收入好於預期。

Our losses were also better than expected, with net income buoyed by a $42 million gain from buying $152 million of our own debt at a discount. Setting aside that purchase, profits still exceeded our guidance. Due to stronger mortgage gross profits and lower marketing spending, first quarter adjusted EBITDA was negative $67 million, when our guidance for that loss had been $73 million to $84 million.

我們的損失也好於預期，淨收入因以折扣價購買 1.52 億美元的自有債務而獲得 4200 萬美元的收益而得到提振。撇開那次購買不談，利潤仍然超出了我們的指導。由於更高的抵押貸款毛利潤和更低的營銷支出，第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 6700 萬美元，而我們對該損失的指導是 7300 萬美元至 8400 萬美元。

Coming out of the first quarter with profits ahead of our plan, we still expect our full year adjusted EBITDA to be breakeven or better in 2023, an improvement of roughly $190 million over 2022. We just have a lot of hay to make when the sun shines. Redfin almost always spends more in the spring, on ads telling customers about Redfin and on agents to serve those customers.

第一季度的利潤超出了我們的計劃，我們仍然預計我們的全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 2023 年實現收支平衡或更好，比 2022 年增加約 1.9 億美元。當陽光明媚時，我們有很多乾草可做閃耀。 Redfin 幾乎總是在春季花費更多，用於向客戶介紹 Redfin 的廣告以及為這些客戶提供服務的代理商。

Many of those customers take until the summer to close. With homebuyers nervous about the economy and so many starving agents trying to poach our clients, we can't count on these closings until they come through. We'll stay vigilant about the bottom line from week to week. The seasonality of our core business is only one reason we expect profits to improve over the remainder of 2023. Bay Equity earnings should continue to strengthen as we complete our adjustment to sharp rate increases.

其中許多客戶要到夏天才能關門。由於購房者對經濟感到緊張，而且有如此多飢餓的代理人試圖挖走我們的客戶，我們不能指望這些關閉，直到它們通過。我們將每週對底線保持警惕。我們核心業務的季節性只是我們預計利潤將在 2023 年剩餘時間內改善的原因之一。隨著我們完成對利率急劇上升的調整，Bay Equity 的收益應該會繼續走強。

We also expect rent profits to improve as we recognize revenues from the last nine months have increased bookings and due to declining marketing expenses through 2023. Redfin as a whole will in future quarters get the full benefit of cost reductions that have continued through April. We expect second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between a $9 million loss and a $1 million profit and third quarter adjusted EBITDA to be much higher than that. Between the end of the third quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, our competitive position has significantly improved. We retired $295 million in debt and reduced Redfin now inventory by $291 million. Demand for the agents on our site has strengthened as we've drawn online visitors away from our rivals and more recently increased the rate at which those visitors ask an agent for service.

我們還預計租金利潤將有所改善，因為我們認識到過去九個月的收入增加了預訂量，並且由於到 2023 年的營銷費用下降。Redfin 作為一個整體將在未來幾個季度充分受益於一直持續到 4 月的成本削減。我們預計第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 將在 900 萬美元的虧損和 100 萬美元的利潤之間，而第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 將遠高於此。從 2022 年第三季度末到 2023 年第一季度，我們的競爭地位顯著提升。我們償還了 2.95 億美元的債務，並將 Redfin 現在的庫存減少了 2.91 億美元。隨著我們吸引在線訪問者遠離我們的競爭對手，並且最近增加了這些訪問者要求代理提供服務的比率，我們網站上對代理的需求有所增加。

We expect real estate services gross margins to improve year-over-year for the first time since the second quarter of 2021 and overall monetization to improve even more as we generate additional profit from Redfin.com traffic through rent and from brokerage customers through Bay Equity.

我們預計房地產服務毛利率自 2021 年第二季度以來首次同比增長，整體貨幣化將進一步改善，因為我們通過租金從 Redfin.com 流量和通過 Bay Equity 從經紀客戶獲得額外利潤.

We've lowered our cost to break even at our current market share, but significant long-term profits depend on returning to market share gains. Accounting for the sales closed by our own agents and from the customers we introduced to our partner agents, our share of U.S. home sales declined by one basis point in the first quarter of 2023. By comparison, we lost two basis points of share in the fourth quarter of 2022. Before then, Redfin had reported year-over-year share gains every quarter since our 2017 public offering. We expect to return to share gains in the second half of 2023 as we recover from layoffs and the closure of RedfinNow.

我們已經降低了成本以在當前的市場份額上實現收支平衡，但可觀的長期利潤取決於市場份額的恢復。考慮到我們自己的代理商完成的銷售以及我們介紹給合作夥伴代理商的客戶，我們在 2023 年第一季度在美國房屋銷售中的份額下降了一個基點。相比之下，我們在美國房屋銷售中的份額下降了兩個基點2022 年第四季度。在此之前，Redfin 自 2017 年公開募股以來每個季度都報告了同比增長。隨著我們從裁員和 RedfinNow 的關閉中恢復過來，我們預計將在 2023 年下半年恢復分享收益。

Of the five RedfinNow homes we still own, all are under contract to sell by June. Another reason for optimism about share is traffic to Redfin.com, which is taking visitors from online rivals and now converting more of those visitors into customers who meet our agents. ComScore, which lets us compare Redfin's online visitors to those visiting other sites, reported a 4% first quarter increase for Redfin compared to a 17% decline for Realtor.com and a 4% decline for Zillow.

在我們仍然擁有的 5 處 RedfinNow 房屋中，所有房屋都已簽訂合同，將在 6 月前出售。對份額持樂觀態度的另一個原因是 Redfin.com 的流量，它正在從在線競爭對手那裡吸引訪問者，現在將更多的訪問者轉化為與我們的代理商會面的客戶。 ComScore 讓我們可以將 Redfin 的在線訪問者與訪問其他網站的訪問者進行比較，報告稱 Redfin 第一季度增長了 4%，而 Realtor.com 下降了 17%，Zillow 下降了 4%。

As a further point of comparison, Google searches on homes for sale declined 20% in the first quarter. This tells us that though there are fewer people looking online, a higher proportion are using Redfin. Over the last half of 2022, we had an advantage against Realtor, not Zillow, but for the time being, at least, we seem to be competing well against both. These traffic gains should produce more sales. The fraction of our online visits that lead to an agent enquiry had been declining since last spring, but that trend reversed in March 2023 after we increased the pace of online optimization to drive demand.

作為進一步的比較，谷歌對待售房屋的搜索在第一季度下降了 20%。這告訴我們，雖然在線查看的人較少，但使用 Redfin 的比例更高。在 2022 年下半年，我們對 Realtor 有優勢，而不是 Zillow，但至少就目前而言，我們似乎與兩者競爭都很好。這些流量收益應該會產生更多的銷售額。自去年春天以來，導致代理查詢的在線訪問比例一直在下降，但在我們加快在線優化步伐以推動需求後，這一趨勢在 2023 年 3 月發生逆轉。

We also redesigned our website and mobile applications to promote Redfin Premier Service to luxury homebuyers. This redesign launched on February 15, and since then the growth rate in luxury inquiries to buy a home has been significantly higher in growth and overall demand. This gives us confidence that we can increase demand more broadly through similar design improvements, highlighting the top producing agents, on-demand service and low fee of our standard service.

我們還重新設計了我們的網站和移動應用程序，以向豪華購房者推廣 Redfin Premier Service。此次重新設計於 2 月 15 日推出，此後購買豪宅的諮詢增長率和整體需求明顯更高。這讓我們相信，我們可以通過類似的設計改進、突出頂級生產代理商、按需服務和低收費標準服務來更廣泛地增加需求。

Our website and mobile applications are the most immediate source of new customers, but the long-term arbiter of our success is the quality of our service which depends in term on retaining and recruiting the best agents.

我們的網站和移動應用程序是新客戶最直接的來源，但我們成功的長期決定因素是我們的服務質量，這取決於保留和招募最好的代理商。

To that end, we're focusing more of our resources on the salespeople who directly serve our customers. On April 11th, we laid off approximately 200 employees, mostly in the brokerage's support organization. From June 30, 2022 to April 30, 2023, the ratio of brokerage managers to lead agents declined by 28%, the ratio of support staff to lead agents declined by 15%, and the ratio of trainers to lead agents declined by 55%.

為此，我們將更多資源集中在直接為客戶服務的銷售人員身上。 4 月 11 日，我們解雇了大約 200 名員工，其中大部分是在經紀公司的支持部門。從2022年6月30日到2023年4月30日，經紀經理與主代理人的比例下降了28%，支持人員與主代理人的比例下降了15%，培訓師與主代理人的比例下降了55%。

By eliminating our photography department in favor of vendors, we also project that we'll reduce our cost to photograph a listing by 17%. In aggregate for 2023, these structural changes should reduce our cost to close the transaction by 10%, excluding the money spent on our lead agents and on the contractor network of associate agents for hosting tours and open houses.

通過取消我們的攝影部門以支持供應商，我們還預計我們將把拍攝清單的成本降低 17%。總的來說，到 2023 年，這些結構性變化應該會將我們完成交易的成本降低 10%，這不包括花在我們的主要代理人和用於舉辦旅遊和開放日的副代理人的承包商網絡上的錢。

Coupling these cost reductions with increases in revenue per transaction will improve real estate services profitability this year and long-term. Because it can take months to close on a home, especially if it's still being built, it won't be until the summer that we get the full benefit of our December 1, 2022 decision to eliminate the commission refund we once offered homebuyers.

將這些成本降低與每筆交易收入的增加相結合，將提高今年和長期的房地產服務盈利能力。因為關閉房屋可能需要幾個月的時間，特別是如果它仍在建造中，所以我們要到夏天才能充分享受 2022 年 12 月 1 日取消我們曾經向購房者提供的佣金退款的決定。

Another way to increase revenue per brokerage transaction is by more narrowly focusing our agents on the transactions that drive the most profits, leaving the rest for partners. This is part of a larger strategic shift toward revenues with a digital margin, where Redfin doesn't bear many personnel costs. Redfin.com routed 40% of customers' first quarter requests for service to our partner agents compared to 39% in the first quarter of 2022. Since we usually shift demand to partners in a boom, a small shift toward partners now should get much bigger as the market recovers. This shift will improve Redfin's corporate income and, we hope, our agents' personal income. Already among the U.S.'s top 20 largest brokers, Redfin rose from number four in agent retention in the fourth quarter of 2022 to number two in the first quarter of 2023. What makes this comparison especially impressive is that at times about 20% of the Redfin agents who leave are asked to do so for performance reasons, which is unheard of at many traditional brokers.

另一種增加每筆經紀交易收入的方法是讓我們的代理人更專注於帶來最大利潤的交易，將其餘的留給合作夥伴。這是向具有數字利潤的收入的更大戰略轉變的一部分，Redfin 不承擔很多人員成本。 Redfin.com 在第一季度將 40% 的客戶服務請求發送給了我們的合作夥伴代理，而在 2022 年第一季度這一比例為 39%。由於我們通常會在繁榮時期將需求轉移給合作夥伴，因此現在向合作夥伴的小幅轉移應該會變得更大隨著市場的複蘇。這種轉變將提高 Redfin 的公司收入，我們希望，我們的代理人的個人收入。 Redfin 已經躋身美國前 20 大經紀商之列，其代理人保留率從 2022 年第四季度的第四位上升到 2023 年第一季度的第二位。這種比較特別令人印象深刻的是，有時約有 20% 的代理人保留出於績效原因要求離開的 Redfin 代理人這樣做，這在許多傳統經紀人中是聞所未聞的。

And even though we've mostly stopped hiring agents until the housing market recovers, we've launched a new program to hire at least 50 experienced agents over the course of 2023, each with 20 or more sales in the last two years or 50 lifetime sales. Learning how to compete for the most sought-after salespeople in our industry can, in future years, let us hire hundreds of agents who can quickly drive profits.

儘管在房地產市場復甦之前我們基本上已經停止招聘代理人，但我們已經啟動了一項新計劃，在 2023 年期間聘請至少 50 名有經驗的代理人，每個人在過去兩年或 50 年內有 20 次或更多的銷售銷售量。學習如何競爭我們行業中最搶手的銷售人員，可以在未來幾年讓我們聘請數百名能夠快速推動利潤的代理商。

As of May 1st, we've hired 39 agents at this level of seniority. The increasing quality of our sales force is one reason that, for the fourth quarter in a row, we've had year-over-year gains in customer attention. Of the Redfin customers who started with Redfin in the fourth quarter of 2022 and went on to buy a home, we project that about one in three stuck with Redfin for the purchase, when a year before that number had been closer to one in four. The sales impact of this service improvement has been offset by market-driven factors, like longer sales cycles and more customers who have had to give up their home search due to high rates. But customer attention is the best measure we have of improving sales execution in a deteriorating market. These gains should improve gross margins as the market stabilizes.

截至 5 月 1 日，我們已經聘用了 39 名處於這一級別資歷的代理人。我們銷售人員素質的提高是我們連續第四個季度獲得客戶關注度同比增長的原因之一。在 2022 年第四季度開始使用 Redfin 並繼續購買房屋的 Redfin 客戶中，我們預計約有三分之一的人會堅持購買 Redfin，而一年前這一數字接近四分之一。這種服務改進的銷售影響已被市場驅動因素所抵消，例如更長的銷售週期和更多因高利率而不得不放棄家庭搜索的客戶。但客戶關注度是我們在不斷惡化的市場中提高銷售執行力的最佳衡量標準。隨著市場穩定，這些收益應該會提高毛利率。

Our first quarter sales execution improved on one other crucial front, the rate at which our brokerage homebuyers use Bay Equity for a mortgage increased from 17% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 20% in the first quarter of 2023. Attach rates have now increased in three out of the last four quarters. What's even more encouraging is Bay Equity's improving margins. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, gross margins improved from negative 9% to 20%, and net income improved from negative $12 million to negative $1 million, when all of these measures had declined from quarter to quarter throughout the 2022 downturn.

我們第一季度的銷售執行在另一個關鍵方面得到改善，我們的經紀購房者使用 Bay Equity 進行抵押貸款的比率從 2022 年第四季度的 17% 增加到 2023 年第一季度的 20%。附加利率現在有所提高在過去四個季度中的三個季度。更令人鼓舞的是 Bay Equity 不斷提高的利潤率。從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度，毛利率從負 9% 提高到 20%，淨收入從負 1200 萬美元提高到負 100 萬美元，而所有這些指標在整個季度中都逐季下降2022年經濟低迷。

Part of the reason for improving profits is Bay Equity's expense reductions, carried out every quarter since the acquisition closed on April 4th. More recently, competition has started to ease, especially from mid-market banks, which can no longer afford to offer jumbo loans at a loss in order to acquire high net worth customers. We expect Bay Equity to earn full year net income in 2023 and to become a major source of profits in future years. Our title business has had similar improvements, with year-over-year revenue growth of 51% in the first quarter and rising margin.

利潤提高的部分原因是 Bay Equity 自 4 月 4 日收購結束以來每個季度都在削減開支。最近，競爭開始緩和，尤其是來自中端市場的銀行，它們無法再承受虧本提供大額貸款以獲取高淨值客戶。我們預計 Bay Equity 將在 2023 年實現全年淨收入，並成為未來幾年的主要利潤來源。我們的產權業務也有類似的改善，第一季度收入同比增長 51%，利潤率也在上升。

Our larger ambition is to increase the gross profit we earn from each online visit to our websites and mobile applications. This depends not only on improving monetization from Redfin's brokerage customers, but also on building new digital businesses. In the past year, we've launched ads on Redfin.com and built a mortgage marketplace for Redfin.com visitors to meet direct to consumer lenders. These new digital businesses doubled year-over-year, albeit off a still small base. The centerpiece of our strategy to improve online monetization is rent, which in the fourth quarter of 2022, had its first quarter of year-over-year revenue growth since 2012. That year-over-year growth accelerated from 5% in the first quarter of 2022 to 13% in the first quarter of 2023.

我們更大的目標是增加我們從每次在線訪問我們的網站和移動應用程序中獲得的毛利潤。這不僅取決於提高 Redfin 經紀客戶的貨幣化能力，還取決於建立新的數字業務。在過去的一年裡，我們在 Redfin.com 上發布了廣告，並為 Redfin.com 訪問者建立了一個抵押貸款市場，以直接與消費者貸方會面。這些新的數字業務同比增長了一倍，儘管基數仍然很小。我們改善在線貨幣化戰略的核心是租金，該租金在 2022 年第四季度實現了自 2012 年以來的第一季度收入同比增長。同比增長從第一季度的 5% 加速2022 年的 13% 到 2023 年第一季度。

We now anticipate second quarter revenues to grow at a rate between 18% and 20%. Revenue gains can be slow to reflect the value of new, longer-term contracts, so the best measure of our sales momentum is net bookings, which are the annualized revenues rent added through sales to new customers, less the annualized revenues lost from departing customers.

我們現在預計第二季度收入將以 18% 至 20% 的速度增長。收入增長可能會緩慢反映新的長期合同的價值，因此衡量我們銷售勢頭的最佳指標是淨預訂量，即通過向新客戶銷售增加的年化收入租金減去離開客戶損失的年化收入.

From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, net bookings increased 18%. In the years spanning the first quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023, net bookings grew by a factor of 10. We expect sales to keep growing on the strength of products for property managers to market their communities on Google, Facebook, and TikTok, but also because a new partnership with Realtor.com has broadened the reach of our own marketplace.

從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度，淨預訂量增長了 18%。在 2022 年第一季度到 2023 年第一季度的幾年裡，淨預訂量增長了 10 倍。我們預計，由於物業經理在谷歌、Facebook 和 TikTok 上營銷其社區的產品實力，銷售額將繼續增長，還因為與 Realtor.com 的新合作夥伴關係擴大了我們自己的市場範圍。

Our rental listings went live February 28th on Realtor.com. According to ComScore data, our March rentals traffic was 39% higher than it would have been without Realtor.com. Realtor.com's rentals audience was already well-established from its long co-star partnership, which ended in 2022. The rent partnership with Realtor.com should increase sales as our property management customers have expressed early excitement about accessing a broader audience. Surfacing listings from rent onto Redfin.com has already increased the average number of online visits we can deliver to a customer's listing. Even without Realtor.com's contribution, sales from rent and Redfin together grew rental traffic 29% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023 per ComScore data. This was faster growth than any major listings marketplace.

我們的出租清單于 2 月 28 日在 Realtor.com 上線。根據 ComScore 數據，我們 3 月份的租金流量比沒有 Realtor.com 時高出 39%。 Realtor.com 的租賃受眾已經從其於 2022 年結束的長期合作夥伴關係中建立起來。與 Realtor.com 的租賃合作關係應該會增加銷售額，因為我們的物業管理客戶很早就表達了對接觸更廣泛受眾的興奮。在 Redfin.com 上展示出租列表已經增加了我們可以提供給客戶列表的平均在線訪問次數。根據 ComScore 的數據，即使沒有 Realtor.com 的貢獻，從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度，租金和 Redfin 的銷售額共同使租金流量增長了 29%。這比任何主要的上市市場都快。

As rent revenues accelerate through 2023, we expect the losses from the rental segment to narrow in each of the next three quarters, leading to positive adjusted EBITDA for the rental segment in the fourth quarter of 2023.

隨著租金收入在 2023 年加速增長，我們預計租賃部門的虧損將在未來三個季度中的每一個季度收窄，從而導致租賃部門在 2023 年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為正。

Before I turn the call over to Chris, let's discuss the housing market. When we last spoke, we said that sales volume would decline significantly from 5.0 million existing home sales in 2022 to 4.3 million in 2023, but that prices would hardly decline at all. Our overall outlook is unchanged.

在我把電話轉給克里斯之前，讓我們討論一下房地產市場。我們上次發言的時候說，銷量會從 2022 年的 500 萬套大幅下降到 2023 年的 430 萬套，但價格幾乎不會下降。我們的總體前景沒有改變。

In March, sales volume fell 22% year-over-year to an annualized rate of 4.4 million existing home sales, and the median home price dropped only 3%. Inventory increased by about 5% compared to the calamitously low levels of March 2022, but is at roughly two-thirds the levels from this time of year in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Homeowners have been careful about giving up a 30-year mortgage below 3%. Some couldn't afford to buy the home they live in now, let alone a larger home. Others don't want to sell when so few homes are available to buy.

3 月份，成屋銷售量同比下降 22%，折合成年率為 440 萬套，房價中值僅下降 3%。與 2022 年 3 月的災難性低水平相比，庫存增加了約 5%，但大約是 2016 年、2017 年、2018 年和 2019 年這個時候水平的三分之二。房主一直小心翼翼地放棄 30-年抵押貸款低於 3%。有些人買不起他們現在住的房子，更不用說買更大的房子了。當可供購買的房屋如此之少時，其他人不想出售。

One of Redfin's LA customers delisted her home after getting a full-priced offer because she couldn't find another home to buy. Low inventory begets low inventory. The unsurprising result is that sales are slow and bidding wars are still common in many parts of the country, especially the southeast. Demand from both buyers and sellers modestly improved in April, but most of this is seasonal. Our experience from past housing downturns is that the public usually sours on housing altogether. But this time around, it seems that folks still want to move. Demand for affordable turnkey homes is the one constant in the U.S. housing market. If rates ease by late in the year without causing a recession, we may see a break in the stalemate between buyers and sellers.

Redfin 的一位洛杉磯客戶在獲得全價報價後將她的房子除名，因為她找不到其他房子可以買。低庫存導致低庫存。不出所料的結果是銷售緩慢，競價戰在全國許多地區仍然很普遍，尤其是東南地區。買賣雙方的需求在 4 月份均略有改善，但其中大部分是季節性的。我們從過去的房地產低迷中得到的經驗是，公眾通常對住房完全厭惡。但這一次，似乎人們還是想搬家。對負擔得起的交鑰匙房屋的需求是美國住房市場的一個不變因素。如果利率在今年晚些時候下降而不導致經濟衰退，我們可能會看到買家和賣家之間的僵局被打破。

One of our Boise agents, Shauna Pendleton, said that if rates end one week down, buyers come out of the woodwork. If rates tick up the next week, buyers just disappear. Right now, there's no seasonality, Shauna said. All activity is based on rates.

我們的一位博伊西經紀人 Shauna Pendleton 說，如果利率下降一周，買家就會離開木製品。如果下周利率上漲，買家就會消失。 Shauna 說，現在沒有季節性。所有活動都基於費率。

Redfin isn't planning for a second spring in the fall, especially since bank failures, the debt ceiling, and consumer confidence are this economy's lions, tigers, and bears. But it's common now for our managers to talk to their teams about being ready for a rebound whenever it may come. Whereas in the winter, we were mostly gnawing on bones

Redfin 不打算在秋季迎來第二個春天，特別是因為銀行倒閉、債務上限和消費者信心是這個經濟體的獅子、老虎和熊市。但現在我們的經理通常會與他們的團隊討論隨時準備好迎接反彈。而在冬天，我們大多在啃骨頭

and worrying about our survival. It's good to be alive. It will be even better to go back on the attack, leaner, hungrier, and in many ways, better than ever.

並擔心我們的生存。活著真好。重新開始進攻會更好，更瘦，更飢餓，而且在很多方面，比以往任何時候都更好。

Take it away, Chris.

把它拿走，克里斯。

Thanks, Glenn. First quarter financial results were better than we planned, giving us confidence we've taken the right steps in what continues to be a choppy housing market. First quarter revenue was $326 million, down 45% from a year ago. Total gross profit was $56 million, down 23% year-over-year, with total gross margins of 17.3%. I'm going to walk through results by segment before turning back to consolidated results in second quarter guidance.

謝謝，格倫。第一季度的財務業績好於我們的計劃，這讓我們有信心在持續動蕩的房地產市場中採取了正確的措施。第一季度收入為 3.26 億美元，同比下降 45%。總毛利潤為 5600 萬美元，同比下降 23%，總毛利率為 17.3%。在回到第二季度指導中的綜合結果之前，我將按部門查看結果。

Real estate services revenue, which includes our brokerage and partner businesses, generated $127 million in revenue, down 28% year-over-year. Brokerage revenue, or revenue from home sales closed by our own agents, was down 29% on a 31% decrease in brokerage transactions and a 3% increase in brokerage revenue per transaction. With the elimination of our home buyer commission refund, more than offsetting an 8% decrease in average home prices for brokerage transactions.

包括我們的經紀和合作夥伴業務在內的房地產服務收入產生了 1.27 億美元的收入，同比下降 28%。經紀收入，或我們自己的代理商完成的房屋銷售收入，下降了 29%，原因是經紀交易減少了 31%，每筆交易的經紀收入增加了 3%。隨著我們取消購房者佣金退款，抵消了超過 8% 的經紀交易平均房價下降。

Revenue from our partners decreased 14% on a 7% decrease in transactions and mixed shift to lower value houses. Partner transactions represented 24% of total real estate services transactions in the quarter, up from 19% in the first quarter of 2022. The mixed shift towards partners is impacted by increased collections from partners. Without this, partner transactions would have represented 21% of the total and market share would have declined three basis points compared to the first quarter of 2022.

來自我們合作夥伴的收入下降了 14%，原因是交易量減少了 7%，並且混合轉向低價值房屋。合作夥伴交易占本季度房地產服務交易總額的 24%，高於 2022 年第一季度的 19%。向合作夥伴的混合轉移受到合作夥伴收款增加的影響。如果沒有這一點，合作夥伴交易將佔總數的 21%，與 2022 年第一季度相比，市場份額將下降三個基點。

Real estate services gross margin was 12.4%, down 100 basis points year-over-year. This was driven by a 230 basis point increase in costs from our in-person company event, offset by a 130 basis point decrease in personnel costs and transaction bonuses. We've already made several changes to the business that will result in improved profitability as we move through 2023, including eliminating the refund we provide to home buyers and right sizing the business to match brokerage staff with demand.

房地產服務毛利率為 12.4%，同比下降 100 個基點。這是由於我們的公司現場活動成本增加了 230 個基點，但被人員成本和交易獎金減少 130 個基點所抵消。我們已經對業務進行了幾項更改，這些更改將在我們到 2023 年時提高盈利能力，包括取消我們向購房者提供的退款以及調整業務規模以使經紀人員與需求相匹配。

Beyond the layoffs previously announced in June and November of 2022, we let off an additional 200 employees in April 2023, which represented 4% of total employees. The April layoff obviously did not have an impact on first quarter results, but reflects our commitment to running the business for full year profitability.

除了之前在 2022 年 6 月和 11 月宣布的裁員外，我們還在 2023 年 4 月裁掉了另外 200 名員工，佔員工總數的 4%。 4 月份的裁員顯然沒有對第一季度業績產生影響，但反映了我們為實現全年盈利而經營業務的承諾。

Total net loss for real estate services in the first quarter was $58 million, down from a net loss of $57 million in the prior year. And adjusted EBITDA loss was $44 million, down from $43 million in the prior year. The decrease was primarily attributable to lower revenue and gross margins, partially offset by $7 million year-over-year decrease in operating expenses.

第一季度房地產服務淨虧損總額為 5800 萬美元，低於去年同期的 5700 萬美元淨虧損。調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 4,400 萬美元，低於去年的 4,300 萬美元。減少的主要原因是收入和毛利率下降，部分被運營費用同比減少 700 萬美元所抵消。

The property segment, which consists primarily of homes sold through Redfin now, generated $113 million in revenue, down 70% year-over-year. As we're winding down this segment, gross profit losses were $2 million, slightly below our guidance of flat gross profits.

主要由現在通過 Redfin 出售的房屋組成的房地產部門產生了 1.13 億美元的收入，同比下降 70%。由於我們正在縮減該細分市場，毛利潤損失為 200 萬美元，略低於我們對持平毛利潤的指導。

Total net loss was $3 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss was $3 million. We're making excellent progress on the wind down of RedfinNow. As of the first week in May, we have just five homes remaining in inventory and all are under contract to sell. As Glenn mentioned, we've been applying excess cash from the sale of RedfinNow inventory to reduce our convertible debt.

淨虧損總額為 300 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 300 萬美元。我們在 RedfinNow 的結束上取得了很好的進展。截至 5 月的第一周，我們僅剩 5 套房屋庫存，而且都已簽訂銷售合同。正如 Glenn 所提到的，我們一直在使用出售 RedfinNow 庫存的多餘現金來減少我們的可轉換債務。

During the first quarter, we reduced the aggregate principal amount on our 2025 convertible notes from $519 million to $367 million. Another step on our path to profitability is momentum in our rentals and mortgage businesses, and we're pleased with the progress we made in the first quarter.

第一季度，我們將 2025 年可轉換票據的本金總額從 5.19 億美元減少到 3.67 億美元。我們通往盈利之路的另一步是我們的租賃和抵押貸款業務的發展勢頭，我們對第一季度取得的進展感到滿意。

Rentals posted double-digit revenue growth of 13% with revenue of $43 million. Total net loss for rentals is $23 million, slightly worse than the net loss of $18 million in the prior year, as higher gross profit was offset by higher operating expenses. Total adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was negative $10 million, and we still expect our rentals business to generate positive adjusted EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2023. Our mortgage segment generated $36 million in revenue in the first quarter, compared to $3 million in the prior year.

租金收入實現了 13% 的兩位數增長，收入為 4300 萬美元。租金淨虧損總額為 2300 萬美元，略低於上一年的淨虧損 1800 萬美元，因為更高的毛利被更高的運營費用所抵消。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 總額為負 1000 萬美元，我們仍然預計到 2023 年第四季度我們的租賃業務將產生正的調整後 EBITDA。我們的抵押貸款部門在第一季度產生了 3600 萬美元的收入，而第二季度為 300 萬美元去年。

The increase was due to the acquisition of Bay Equity, which occurred last April. This result was better than our guidance range of $29 million to $32 million. Mortgage gross margin was 19.9%, up from a negative 89.1% a year ago. The improvement reflects the performance of Bay Equity in contrast to our legacy mortgage business, as well as stabilizing fundamentals in the mortgage industry.

增加的原因是去年 4 月收購了 Bay Equity。這一結果好於我們 2900 萬至 3200 萬美元的指導範圍。抵押貸款毛利率為 19.9%，高於一年前的負值 89.1%。這一改善反映了 Bay Equity 相對於我們傳統抵押貸款業務的表現，以及抵押貸款行業基本面的穩定。

Total net loss for mortgage was $1 million, and total adjusted EBITDA was $1 million. There's still a long way to go to get back to a normalized environment, but it's reassuring to see the great work the team has done increasing attach rates and aggressively scaling the business, having an impact on bottom line results. The second segment that generated positive adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was our other segment. This segment includes title, digital revenue, and other services. The segment generated revenue of $7 million in the first quarter, compared to $4 million in the prior year as both our title segment display ads business grew.

抵押貸款淨虧損總額為 100 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 總額為 100 萬美元。要恢復正常化環境還有很長的路要走，但令人欣慰的是，看到團隊在提高附加率和積極擴展業務方面所做的出色工作，對底線結果產生了影響。在第一季度產生正調整 EBITDA 的第二個部分是我們的其他部分。該部分包括所有權、數字收入和其他服務。該部門在第一季度產生了 700 萬美元的收入，而去年同期為 400 萬美元，因為我們的標題部分顯示廣告業務都在增長。

Other segment gross margin was 26.3%, up from a negative 6.9% a year ago. Total net loss was $0.2 million, compared to a net loss of $2 million in the prior year. And adjusted EBITDA was positive $0.4 million, compared to a negative $1.5 million in the prior year.

其他部門的毛利率為 26.3%，高於一年前的負 6.9%。淨虧損總額為 20 萬美元，而上一年的淨虧損為 200 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為正 40 萬美元，而上一年為負 150 萬美元。

Turning back to consolidated results, total operating expenses were $160 million, up $2.5 million year-over-year. The equity which we acquired last April contributed $8 million. Excluding this, operating expenses decreased by $6 million year-over-year. The decrease was primarily attributable to $4.5 million in lower personnel expenses, $3.7 million in lower marketing expenses, and $4.7 million in lower restructuring expenses.

回到合併結果，總運營費用為 1.6 億美元，同比增加 250 萬美元。我們去年 4 月收購的股權貢獻了 800 萬美元。剔除此因素，運營費用同比減少 600 萬美元。減少的主要原因是人事費用減少了 450 萬美元，營銷費用減少了 370 萬美元，重組費用減少了 470 萬美元。

These reductions were offset by $5.9 million in costs associated with the in-person company event, which we held in the first quarter of 2023, but did not hold in 2022, and do not expect to hold next year. Total net loss for Redfin of $61 million beat the better end of our $116 million to $105 million guidance range.

這些減少被與公司現場活動相關的 590 萬美元成本所抵消，我們在 2023 年第一季度舉行了現場公司活動，但 2022 年沒有舉行，預計明年也不會舉行。 Redfin 的淨虧損總額為 6,100 萬美元，超過了我們 1.16 億美元至 1.05 億美元指導範圍的較好水平。

Net loss includes a $42 million gain on the extinguished amount of notes, and only $7 million of this was anticipated in our guidance. Our adjusted EBITDA of negative $67 million was better than the high end of our negative $84 million to negative $73 million guidance range. Diluted loss per share attributable to common stock was $0.55 compared with diluted loss per share attributable to common stock of $0.86 one year ago.

淨虧損包括 4200 萬美元的已銷毀票據收益，而我們的指引預計其中只有 700 萬美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 為負 6700 萬美元，好於我們負 8400 萬美元至負 7300 萬美元指導範圍的上限。歸屬於普通股的每股攤薄虧損為 0.55 美元，而一年前歸屬於普通股的攤薄每股虧損為 0.86 美元。

Now turning to our financial expectations for the second quarter of 2023. We expect total revenue between $268 million and $281 million, representing a year-over-year decline between 24% and 20% compared to the second quarter of 2022. Included within total revenue are real estate services revenue between $175 million and $183 million, rentals revenue between $45 million and $46 million, mortgage revenue between $38 million and $41 million, and other revenue between $10 million and $11 million. We expect to report our property segment as discontinued operations in the second quarter, and these results are not included in total revenue. It's also worth noting that real estate services revenue includes $5 million in concierge revenue, a new activity within our brokerage business that helps customers fix up their home prior to listing.

現在轉向我們對 2023 年第二季度的財務預期。我們預計總收入在 2.68 億美元至 2.81 億美元之間，與 2022 年第二季度相比同比下降 24% 至 20%。包括在總收入中房地產服務收入在 1.75 億美元至 1.83 億美元之間，租金收入在 4500 萬至 4600 萬美元之間，抵押貸款收入在 3800 萬至 4100 萬美元之間，其他收入在 1000 萬至 1100 萬美元之間。我們預計在第二季度將我們的房地產部門報告為終止經營，這些結果不包括在總收入中。還值得注意的是，房地產服務收入包括 500 萬美元的禮賓收入，這是我們經紀業務中的一項新活動，可幫助客戶在上市前修理房屋。

This offering attracts listing customers and adds incremental revenue per transaction, but has low incremental gross margins. As such, we expect concierge activity to be a 2.0% tailwind on real estate services revenue growth in the second quarter and a 100 basis point headwind on gross margins. Even with this headwind, we still expect real estate services gross margins to increase by 100 to 250 basis points as compared with the second quarter of 2022.

該產品吸引上市客戶並增加每筆交易的增量收入，但增量毛利率較低。因此，我們預計禮賓服務活動將對第二季度房地產服務收入增長產生 2.0% 的推動作用，並對毛利率產生 100 個基點的不利影響。即使存在這種逆風，我們仍預計與 2022 年第二季度相比，房地產服務毛利率將增加 100 至 250 個基點。

Total net loss is expected to be between $44 million and $35 million compared to a net loss of $78 million in the second quarter of 2022. Discontinued operations are included in net loss, but are expected to have no impact on the total. This guidance includes approximately $31 million in total marketing expenses, down from $57 million in the second quarter of 2022. The decrease reflects our decision to pull back on the mass media campaign that typically runs in the first half of the year.

淨虧損總額預計在 4400 萬美元至 3500 萬美元之間，而 2022 年第二季度的淨虧損為 7800 萬美元。已終止的業務包括在淨虧損中，但預計不會對總額產生影響。該指導包括約 3100 萬美元的總營銷費用，低於 2022 年第二季度的 5700 萬美元。這一減少反映了我們決定取消通常在今年上半年進行的大眾媒體活動。

Our guidance also includes $17 million of stock-based compensation, $17 million of depreciation and amortization, $5 million in restructuring expenses, and $4 million of gains on extinguishment of convertible senior notes. The gain assumption reflects the repurchase of $17 million of convertible notes already completed in the second quarter.

我們的指導還包括 1700 萬美元的股票補償、1700 萬美元的折舊和攤銷、500 萬美元的重組費用以及 400 萬美元的可轉換優先票據清償收益。收益假設反映了第二季度已完成的 1700 萬美元可轉換票據的回購。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between negative $9 million and positive $1 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of negative $29 million in the second quarter of 2022. Furthermore, we expect to pay a quarterly dividend of 30,640 shares of common stock to a preferred stockholder. The guidance assumes, among other things, that no additional business acquisitions, investments, restructurings, convertible note or stock repurchases, or legal settlements are concluded, and that there are no further revisions to stock-based compensation estimates. And with that, let's open the lines for your questions.

調整後的 EBITDA 預計在負 900 萬美元和正 100 萬美元之間，而 2022 年第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 2900 萬美元。此外，我們預計將向優先股股東支付 30,640 股普通股的季度股息。除其他外，該指南假設沒有完成額外的業務收購、投資、重組、可轉換票據或股票回購或法律和解，並且沒有對基於股票的薪酬估計進行進一步修訂。有了這個，讓我們打開你的問題。

Thank you. We will now conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from John Campbell with Stephens. Please proceed.

謝謝。我們現在將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 John Campbell 和 Stephens。請繼續。

I know on the market share, I mean, we're just talking single debt, so it's kind of splitting hairs to some degree. But in 4Q, or excuse me, in this quarter, I mean, you actually declined share at a little bit lower rate than you did last quarter. That's despite having 7% less lead agents. It sounds like the elimination of the rebate was probably a pretty big driver there. Was there anything else you'd call out for the better underlying results, at least, you know, relative to last quarter?

我知道市場份額，我的意思是，我們只是在談論單一債務，所以它在某種程度上有點分裂。但是在第四季度，或者對不起，在這個季度，我的意思是，你實際上以比上一季度低一點的速度下降了份額。儘管首席代理人減少了 7%。聽起來取消回扣可能是一個很大的推動因素。至少，你知道，相對於上個季度，你還有什麼可以要求更好的基本結果嗎？

RedfinNow would be the other factor, John. So I'm not sure how much the price increase affected demand. We've tested that, and it hasn't had a major impact, maybe on returning customers, but not on new customers. RedfinNow, when it could offer near market value, instantly drove many listing inquiries. And now that we're not offering that on our site, we don't have as much listing demand. It's been hard to replace that. And even when we have an open door partnership, the offers just aren't as compelling because the cost of capital is priced into those offers, and consumers don't respond. You should just remember that most of the people who asked for an immediate cash offer ended up listing their home. So this was a great way to meet homeowners, but it doesn't work in a non-zero rate environment.

RedfinNow 是另一個因素，約翰。所以我不確定價格上漲對需求的影響有多大。我們已經對此進行了測試，它並沒有產生重大影響，可能對回頭客有影響，但對新客戶沒有影響。當 RedfinNow 可以提供接近市場價值時，立即引發了許多上市查詢。現在我們不在我們的網站上提供，我們沒有那麼多的上市需求。很難取代它。即使我們有一個開放的合作夥伴關係，這些提議也沒有那麼有吸引力，因為資本成本已經計入這些提議中，而消費者沒有回應。您應該記住，大多數要求立即提供現金報價的人最終都掛牌出售了他們的房屋。所以這是結識房主的好方法，但它在非零利率環境中不起作用。

Makes sense. And then on the EBITDA profitability goal this year, obviously, everybody's paying close attention to that. So for 1Q, obviously, a $67 million loss here. And then on the guide, you're assuming roughly flat. Even if you do a little bit better than that, you've got a pretty big hole to fill in the back half. If you look back at the second half of 2020, you actually put up that kind of EBITDA gain. So it's not – it doesn't feel like too much of a stretch. But Glenn or Chris, whichever one of you guys want to take this, you guys have talked to some detailed bridge work in the past. I'm hoping we might be able to revisit that if you guys can kind of unpack what you're expecting in the back half.

說得通。然後是今年的 EBITDA 盈利目標，顯然，每個人都在密切關注這一點。因此，對於第一季度，很明顯，這裡損失了 6700 萬美元。然後在指南上，你假設大致持平。即使你做得比那好一點，你的後半部分也有一個很大的洞需要填補。如果回顧 2020 年下半年，您實際上會獲得這種 EBITDA 收益。所以它不是——它不會讓人覺得太緊張。但是格倫或克里斯，無論你們中的哪一個想要接受這個，你們過去都討論過一些詳細的橋樑工作。我希望我們能夠重新審視這一點，如果你們能解開你們在後半部分所期待的東西。

Why don't I start, Chris, and then you can follow? So first of all, it's a seasonal business. We have front-loaded costs and back-loaded revenues. We pay agents to host tours with customers. We pay for marketing campaigns. Then those customers close in the summer. So that's part of it.

為什麼我不先開始，克里斯，然後你可以跟進？因此，首先，這是一項季節性業務。我們有前期成本和後期收入。我們付錢給代理商來接待客戶的旅行。我們為營銷活動付費。然後這些客戶在夏天關閉。這就是其中的一部分。

But the other part is that unlike in 2020, we now have these two other businesses, rent and Bay Equity, both of which are rapidly improving their profitability. So we expect rent profits to improve every single quarter over the course of the year. And we have the same expectation with Bay Equity. Bay Equity has already demonstrated that progress from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023. So if you couple that with the fact that we're going to start improving revenues in our core business at a higher gross margin and we get the full benefit of some cost reductions that extended through April of this year, there's a lot of leverage in the back half of 2023. We haven't put a number out there that we've missed. This one is a doozy, but we feel good.

但另一部分是，與 2020 年不同，我們現在有另外兩個業務，rent 和 Bay Equity，它們都在迅速提高盈利能力。因此，我們預計租金利潤在一年中的每個季度都會有所改善。我們對 Bay Equity 也有同樣的期望。 Bay Equity 已經證明了從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度的進展。因此，如果您將其與我們將開始以更高的毛利率提高核心業務的收入這一事實相結合，我們將獲得受益於今年 4 月的一些成本削減，2023 年下半年會有很多槓桿作用。我們沒有給出我們錯過的數字。這是一個愚蠢的，但我們感覺很好。

I'd maybe add just two more comments there. We do think we'll continue to see the other revenue segment come on during the course of the year, including Title, which is expanding its service. And we're really pleased with the progress made on display advertising. Those are relatively small revenue dollars, but from a profitability standpoint. And then beyond that, it's also typically the case that operating expenses in the form of marketing expenses fall during the course of the year because it's just less valuable to advertise in the second half than it is in the first half. So lots of work to do, but feel good about the efforts and how we have things set up.

我可能會在那裡再添加兩條評論。我們確實認為我們會在這一年中繼續看到其他收入部分出現，包括正在擴展其服務的 Title。我們對展示廣告取得的進展感到非常滿意。這些收入相對較小，但從盈利能力的角度來看。除此之外，通常情況下，營銷費用形式的運營費用在一年中也會下降，因為下半年的廣告價值不如上半年。有很多工作要做，但對這些努力以及我們如何安排事情感覺良好。

The next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citigroup. Please proceed.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Ygal Arounian。請繼續。

First question, Glenn, to follow up on the macro a little bit. You talked about the seasonality. I think the way you phrased it is you're not really seeing regular seasonality. It just depends on rates. At the same time, prices aren't dropping. So it sounds like really the only swing factor that gets the market to open up again is lower rates. Is that how you're seeing it? Do you think there's other things that can get the market moving a little bit more? Is it really just from here on out until rates come back closer to where everyone's locked in right now? Is that the only thing that can open up the market? And are you guys seeing any impacts from some of the issues of the regional banks having a harder time getting mortgages?

第一個問題，格倫，稍微跟進宏觀。你談到了季節性。我認為你的措辭方式是你並沒有真正看到規律的季節性。這僅取決於利率。與此同時，價格並沒有下降。所以聽起來真正讓市場再次開放的唯一搖擺因素是較低的利率。你是這樣看的嗎？你認為還有其他因素可以讓市場多動一點嗎？真的只是從現在開始直到利率回到接近每個人現在鎖定的水平嗎？只有這樣才能打開市場嗎？你們是否看到區域銀行更難獲得抵押貸款的一些問題的影響？

No. That bad news is good news for us, both because -- sorry, there's an echo. But that bad news is good news for us mostly because we have less competition for jumbo loans, and it also encourages the Fed to just go easy on interest rate increases. But having said that, we have factored into our business the assumption that there will be 4.3 million existing homes sold in the United States this year, which is a conservative assumption. It's about the same number of homes that were sold at the bottom of the great financial crisis when the population was 10% smaller.

不，這個壞消息對我們來說是個好消息，因為 - 抱歉，有迴聲。但這個壞消息對我們來說是個好消息，主要是因為我們對大額貸款的競爭較少，而且它還鼓勵美聯儲在加息方面保持寬鬆。但話雖如此，我們已將今年美國將售出 430 萬套現房的假設納入我們的業務，這是一個保守的假設。這與大金融危機底部人口減少 10% 時售出的房屋數量大致相同。

So, we don't need the housing market to get better. When it does, and at some point it will as the Fed steps back from these rate increases, we have tremendous leverage. As we get more revenues, we'll hold our costs steady, and we'll have a more efficient real estate operation. So, it should fall to the bottom line. But it's rate, rate, rate.

所以，我們不需要房地產市場變得更好。當它發生時，並且在某個時候隨著美聯儲退出這些加息，我們將擁有巨大的槓桿作用。隨著我們獲得更多收入，我們將保持成本穩定，並且我們將擁有更高效的房地產運營。所以，它應該落到底線。但這是速度，速度，速度。

Right. As expected. And more within your control. So, right then, now, when the whole buying proposal was something that you just talked about, drove demand, and now it's not there, and that's been a little bit of a headwind for you guys. Do you think about ways to offset that, something you can plug in place to drive demand? Again, you talked about improvements in the site and share gains from these competitors. How do we kind of supplant what we've lost there? Is there anything you can do, or just kind of have to work with what you have? Thank you.

正確的。不出所料。以及更多您的控制。所以，當時，現在，當整個購買提議是你剛剛談到的東西時，推動了需求，但現在它不存在了，這對你們來說有點不利。您是否考慮過抵消這種影響的方法，您可以插入什麼來推動需求？同樣，您談到了網站的改進並分享了來自這些競爭對手的收益。我們如何取代我們在那裡失去的東西？有什麼你可以做的，或者只是必須使用你擁有的東西嗎？謝謝。

I wouldn't characterize the loss of RedfinNow demand as massive. It's a significant factor. We'll be glad when we're a year out from that, because there are just so many ways that cheap capital subsidized demand creation for new real estate companies. And the fundamental way that we want to create demand is just by offering consumers a better deal. Listing a home for a 1% fee and really explaining to consumers that we sell that property for more money, that we're more likely to sell it than traditional brokers, that we sell it faster than our competition. That's the case that we have to make. And every real estate portal, whether it's Realtor.com or Zillow or Redfin, has always had more traffic from buyers than sellers. So, our other challenge is just to make sure that when we meet somebody who wants to tour a property, that we figure out if they have a home to sell and that we execute well on the entire customer relationship, not just the opening transaction.

我不會將 RedfinNow 需求的損失描述為巨大的。這是一個重要因素。一年後我們會很高興，因為廉價資本可以通過多種方式為新的房地產公司創造需求。我們想要創造需求的根本方法就是為消費者提供更好的交易。以 1% 的費用列出房屋，並真正向消費者解釋我們以更高的價格出售該房產，我們比傳統經紀人更有可能出售它，我們比競爭對手賣得更快。這就是我們必須做的事情。每個房地產門戶網站，無論是 Realtor.com、Zillow 還是 Redfin，來自買家的流量總是多於賣家。因此，我們的另一個挑戰只是確保當我們遇到想要參觀房產的人時，我們要弄清楚他們是否有房子要賣，並且我們要在整個客戶關係中表現良好，而不僅僅是開盤交易。

So, my guess is that we'll continue taking share because we just have a fundamentally better proposition, better results for a lower price. And we just need to make that case better on our site. It was so easy to sell a cash offer. It's harder to explain the 1% fee because people worry about the trade-offs. And we're just going to get better and better at that. We've already seen this improvement in conversion after months of decline in March of 2023. And we've also seen that when we started marketing to luxury customers, there was an increase in home buyer demand from that segment too. So, I know we can do it.

所以，我的猜測是我們會繼續分享，因為我們有一個根本上更好的主張，以更低的價格獲得更好的結果。我們只需要在我們的網站上改善這種情況。出售現金要約非常容易。很難解釋 1% 的費用，因為人們擔心權衡取捨。我們只會在這方面做得越來越好。在 2023 年 3 月的幾個月下滑之後，我們已經看到這種轉化率的改善。而且我們還看到，當我們開始向奢侈品客戶進行營銷時，該細分市場的購房者需求也在增加。所以，我知道我們可以做到。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Curtis Nagle with Bank of America. Please proceed.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Curtis Nagle。請繼續。

Great. Thanks very much. So, the first one, I'm just kind of curious about the luxury business. It sounds like that's going pretty well. I think that's a pretty competitive and fairly entrenched business in terms of existing brokerages. So, I guess, what specifically in terms of, I guess, the service levels or maybe the marketing is driving that progress? And what is the threshold in terms of, I guess, defining luxury homes in terms of price point?

偉大的。非常感謝。所以，第一個，我只是對奢侈品行業有點好奇。聽起來進展順利。我認為就現有經紀業務而言，這是一項相當有競爭力且相當根深蒂固的業務。所以，我想，具體是什麼，我想，服務水平或營銷正在推動這一進步？我想，根據價格點定義豪宅的門檻是多少？

Well, the threshold varies by market. So, a million-dollar home is a middle-class home in San Francisco, whereas in South Carolina, it can be a mansion. But generally, you should think about a million and up as a good boundary for most of America. And I wouldn't say it's going well. I would say that we have encouraging early data that we can drive more demand from luxury buyers. And the reason I say that is that we're just at the beginning. We haven't really made our case. There are other very entrenched brands who have far more equity with luxury home buyers. But the case that we're making is that we have some amazing agents, and we've taken the best of the best. Already, there are more top producers at Redfin on a population-adjusted basis than any other brokerage. We've taken the best of those agents, the ones who have the most luxury experience, and given them special branding on our site. That site gets 50 million visitors. So, many consumers who came to our site with a luxury home to buy or sell just naturally assumed that Redfin wasn't for them. And simply raising our hand and saying, we want this business, we have an agent who sold homes at this price point in these neighborhoods, has made a difference. And it should be no surprise. But to think that we're going to become Sotheby's overnight, that isn't our ambition. There are big incumbent brands who trade just on name. They're on defense. We're on offense, and we're going to go get them. And we're going to spend the next 10, 20 years trying to take share. That's a good place for us to be in.

好吧，門檻因市場而異。因此，一百萬美元的房子在舊金山是中產階級的房子，而在南卡羅來納州，它可以是豪宅。但總的來說，對於美國大部分地區來說，您應該將 100 萬以上作為一個良好的界限。我不會說它進展順利。我想說的是，我們有令人鼓舞的早期數據，表明我們可以推動更多奢侈品買家的需求。我這麼說的原因是我們才剛剛開始。我們還沒有真正提出我們的理由。還有其他一些非常根深蒂固的品牌，它們在豪宅買家中擁有更多的資產。但我們正在做的事情是，我們有一些了不起的代理人，而且我們已經把最好的都帶走了。在人口調整的基礎上，Redfin 的頂級生產商已經超過任何其他經紀公司。我們從這些代理商中挑選了最好的，他們擁有最奢華的體驗，並在我們的網站上為他們賦予了特殊的品牌。該網站有 5000 萬訪問者。因此，許多帶著豪宅來到我們網站買賣的消費者自然而然地認為 Redfin 不適合他們。簡單地舉手說，我們想要這項業務，我們有一個經紀人在這些社區以這個價位出售房屋，已經有所作為。這應該不足為奇。但認為我們將在一夜之間成為蘇富比，那不是我們的野心。有一些大的現有品牌只是以名義進行交易。他們在防守。我們在進攻，我們要去得到他們。我們將在接下來的 10 年、20 年內努力爭取份額。那對我們來說是個好地方。

Okay. And then, Glenn, just another follow-up for you. I'm curious just how, I guess, the continued inventory crunches have factored into assumptions for home volumes for the back half of the year and your EBITDA targets. I guess any concern that once we get past the spring selling season, demand may fall off again, or do you think that just because unrealized demand is so high and, I don't know, maybe rates start to fall, that that should be an offset? How should we think about that?

好的。然後，格倫，你的另一個後續行動。我很好奇，我想，持續的庫存緊縮是如何影響到今年下半年的房屋銷量假設和您的 EBITDA 目標的。我想任何人都擔心一旦我們度過了春季銷售旺季，需求可能會再次下降，或者你認為僅僅因為未實現的需求如此之高，而且我不知道，也許利率開始下降，那應該是偏移量？我們應該如何考慮？

Well, there are puts and takes there. First of all, we have assumed that there will still be a seasonal decline in the back half of the year in home buying demand. That's what typically happens. Seasonal patterns have been disrupted for so long during the pandemic that we've had to baseline 2019 to 2023. And that makes the analysis more speculative. But I think there are several factors to consider. The first is that people just haven't soured on real estate the way that they did in 2008. I was here then. People just didn't want to hear about housing. There is still, in 2023, a deep appetite to move. There are so many people who want to move to a more affordable part of the country. That is unfinished business in America.

好吧，那裡有看跌期權。首先，我們假設下半年購房需求仍將出現季節性下降。這就是通常發生的事情。在大流行期間，季節性模式被打亂了很長時間，以至於我們不得不將 2019 年至 2023 年作為基線。這使得分析更具推測性。但我認為有幾個因素需要考慮。首先是人們並沒有像 2008 年那樣對房地產感到厭惡。當時我就在這裡。人們只是不想听到有關住房的信息。到 2023 年，仍有強烈的搬遷意願。有很多人想搬到這個國家更便宜的地方。那是美國未完成的事業。

And there is this demographic bump from millennials and just prevailing interest in looking at pretty houses. So that feels really different. And then the other factor is just talking to our agents. Some were in the office today for a Seattle City meeting, and they've just met so many customers who say, I'm going to sit it out right now. I have no real sense of urgency. If rates come down, I want to move. Call me then. Maybe that will happen in the back half of 2023. Maybe it will happen next year.

千禧一代帶來了這種人口增長，而且人們普遍對看漂亮的房子感興趣。所以感覺真的很不一樣。然後另一個因素就是與我們的代理人交談。有些人今天在辦公室參加西雅圖市會議，他們剛剛遇到了很多客戶，他們說，我現在要坐下來。我沒有真正的緊迫感。如果利率下降，我想搬家。那給我打電話也許這會在 2023 年下半年發生。也許會在明年發生。

But it's going to happen at some point. And until then, we're going to plan on lower volumes. 4.3 million units is based on this crude assumption that shelter is one of the three fundamental human needs. And that is kind of the bare bones number of people who will move in the United States this year.

但它會在某個時候發生。在那之前，我們將計劃降低產量。 430 萬個單位是基於這樣一個粗略的假設，即住房是人類三大基本需求之一。這是今年將移居美國的基本人數。

Our next question comes from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates. Please proceed.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。請繼續。

Sorry if I missed some of the detail about this, but I wanted to dig in a little on the real estate service revenue guidance. I think the midpoint of guidance is down 29% year-over-year versus 1Q down 28%. And I know the macro is uncertain, but I think there's at least some indications that year-over-year declines will probably lessen for the industry in total in 2Q versus 1Q. So I'm hoping you could maybe unpack the trends that you're expecting. And I'm sure there's moving pieces, but is the increase in waiting to partner business driving some of that? Is it the listing headwinds you talked about or geographic mix or the market generally? Yes, just hoping you can maybe unpack that a bit.

抱歉，如果我錯過了這方面的一些細節，但我想深入了解一下房地產服務收入指南。我認為指導的中點同比下降 29%，而第一季度下降 28%。而且我知道宏觀是不確定的，但我認為至少有一些跡象表明，與第一季度相比，第二季度整個行業的同比下降可能會減少。所以我希望你能解開你所期待的趨勢。而且我確信有一些變化，但是等待合作夥伴業務的增加是否推動了其中的一些？是你談到的上市逆風還是地域組合或市場普遍？是的，只是希望你能稍微解壓一下。

Sure. So the way we set our guidance is based on what we can see in terms of revenue bookings into the first month of the quarter, the second month of the quarter. And then as you can imagine, we have less visibility into the last month of that quarter. And so it's always a little difficult for us to tell what's happening in the broader market over that same period of time. But what you see in our guidance is what we think the whole picture will look like. And I do think that you were mentioning that their expectations of second quarter looks a lot better than the first quarter in terms of overall housing volume. I'm not sure we've seen a lot of evidence of that for all the reasons that Glenn just mentioned. And so we haven't made a specific assumption about market conditions, but what you see reflected in the guidance is what we've seen in terms of bookings.

當然。因此，我們設定指導的方式是基於我們在本季度第一個月、本季度第二個月的收入預訂方面所看到的。然後你可以想像，我們對該季度的最後一個月的了解較少。因此，我們總是很難判斷同一時期大盤的情況。但是您在我們的指南中看到的是我們認為的整體情況。而且我確實認為你提到他們對第二季度的預期在整體住房量方面看起來比第一季度好很多。由於 Glenn 剛才提到的所有原因，我不確定我們是否已經看到了很多證據。因此，我們沒有對市場狀況做出具體假設，但您在指南中看到的是我們在預訂方面看到的。

And I could add just one piece of color there, Ryan.

我可以只添加一種顏色，Ryan。

Sure.

當然。

January demand was really strong because rates were close to 6%. And then February and March demand was much weaker. And this isn't just at Redfin. This has to be industry-wide. And if you just do the math around the length of the sales cycle, it's just hard to imagine that at least the first two months of Q2 are going to be boom months because that's when people were first adjusting to rates ticking back up into the seventh.

1 月份的需求非常強勁，因為利率接近 6%。然後 2 月和 3 月的需求要弱得多。這不僅僅是在 Redfin。這必須是全行業的。如果你只計算銷售週期的長度，很難想像至少第二季度的前兩個月會是繁榮的月份，因為那是人們第一次調整利率回升到第七季度的時候.

Yes. No, that's helpful commentary, Glenn. That makes sense. I guess maybe one other question just tying to the mortgage side of things. Given the share you guys have within California and some of the West Coast markets, I guess just any turbulence you're seeing with your customers due to some of the banking dynamics and as there is some of this turmoil in the regional banks, is that potentially helping Bay equity capture some business that maybe otherwise would have gone to a First Republic as an example to get a mortgage? Any commentary there?

是的。不，這是有用的評論，格倫。這就說得通了。我想也許還有一個問題與抵押貸款方面有關。鑑於你們在加利福尼亞州和一些西海岸市場中所佔的份額，我想由於某些銀行業動態以及區域銀行中存在的一些動盪，你們在客戶中看到的任何動盪是可能幫助 Bay equity 獲得一些業務，否則這些業務可能會以第一共和國為例獲得抵押貸款？那裡有評論嗎？

It's been an advantage for us that First Republic isn't issuing loans at a loss in order to acquire high net worth customers. But there's still so many bigger banks who covet those high net worth customers. The competition for jumbo business is savage. We've gotten more sharp elbowed about it, which will put some pressure on margin for that product. But we want to compete on rate because the loan officers at Bay Equity don't have to work quite as much to meet those customers. And that sales and marketing cost savings should be passed on to the consumer.

First Republic 不會為了獲得高淨值客戶而虧本發放貸款，這對我們來說是一個優勢。但是仍然有那麼多大銀行垂涎那些高淨值客戶。大型企業的競爭非常激烈。我們對此更加尖銳，這將給該產品的利潤率帶來一些壓力。但我們希望在利率上進行競爭，因為 Bay Equity 的信貸員不必為了滿足這些客戶而工作那麼多。並且應該將節省的銷售和營銷成本轉嫁給消費者。

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue at this time. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.

謝謝。目前隊列中沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。