(RDFN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Redfin Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Our host for today's call is Meg Nunnally, Head of investor relations. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Redfin 公司 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天電話會議的主持人是投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host. Meg, you may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給您的主持人。梅格，你可以開始了。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Redfin's financial results conference call for the second quarter ended June 30th, 2023. I'm Meg Nunnally, Redfin's Head of Investor Relations. Joining me on the call today is Glenn Kelman, our CEO, and Chris Nielsen, our CFO.

下午好，歡迎參加 Redfin 截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度財務業績電話會議。我是 Redfin 投資者關係主管 Meg Nunnally。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官格倫·凱爾曼 (Glenn Kelman) 和我們的首席財務官克里斯·尼爾森 (Chris Nielsen)。

Before we start, note that some of our statements on today’s call are forward-looking. We believe our assumptions and expectations related to these forward-looking statements are reasonable, but our actual results may turn out to be materially different. Please read and consider the risk factors in our SEC filings together with the content of today’s call. Any forward-looking statements are based on our assumptions today, and we don’t undertake to update these statements in light of new information or future events.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們在今天電話會議上的一些聲明是前瞻性的。我們相信我們對這些前瞻性陳述的假設和預期是合理的，但我們的實際結果可能會產生重大差異。請閱讀並考慮我們向 SEC 提交的文件中的風險因素以及今天電話會議的內容。任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的假設，我們不承諾根據新信息或未來事件更新這些陳述。

On this call, we will present non-GAAP measures when discussing our financial results. We encourage you to review today's earnings release, which is available on our website at investors.redfin.com, for more information relating to our non-GAAP measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and related reconciliation. All comparisons made in the course of this call are against the same period in the prior year, unless otherwise stated.

在本次電話會議上，我們將在討論我們的財務業績時提出非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們鼓勵您查看今天的收益報告，該報告可在我們的網站 Investors.redfin.com 上獲取，以了解有關我們的非 GAAP 指標的更多信息，包括最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標和相關調節表。除非另有說明，本次電話會議過程中進行的所有比較均與上一年同期進行。

Lastly, we will be providing a copy of our prepared remarks on our website by the conclusion of today's call and a full transcript and audio replay will be also available soon after the call.

最後，我們將在今天的電話會議結束時在我們的網站上提供準備好的講話副本，並且在電話會議後不久也將提供完整的文字記錄和音頻重播。

With that, I’ll turn the call over to Glenn.

說完，我會把電話轉給格倫。

Thank you, Meg, and hi everyone. In the second quarter of 2023, Redfin generated $276 million in revenue and an adjusted-EBITDA loss of $7 million, both within the ranges we had forecast in our last earnings call. Our net loss of $27 million was better than our forecasted loss of between $35 and $44 million, due to a $20-million gain from purchasing our 2025 notes at a discount.

謝謝你，梅格，大家好。 2023 年第二季度，Redfin 實現收入 2.76 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 虧損 700 萬美元，均在我們上次財報電話會議中預測的範圍內。我們 2700 萬美元的淨虧損好於我們預測的 35 至 4400 萬美元的虧損，因為以折扣價購買 2025 年票據獲得了 2000 萬美元的收益。

But even as our share of online demand has increased sharply, we’re unlikely to get enough second-half sales to earn the full-year adjusted-EBITDA profit that we had forecast coming into 2023. We now expect 2023’s adjusted-EBITDA loss to be about $45 million. This is an improvement of more than $140 million over 2022’s adjusted-EBITDA loss, with similar gains planned for future years. From July 2023 to June 2024, we plan to generate a full-year adjusted-EBITDA profit.

但即使我們的在線需求份額大幅增加，我們也不太可能獲得足夠的下半年銷售額來賺取我們預測的 2023 年全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤。我們現在預計2023 年調整後EBITDA 損失約為4500 萬美元。這比 2022 年調整後 EBITDA 損失減少了超過 1.4 億美元，併計劃在未來幾年實現類似的收益。從2023年7月到2024年6月，我們計劃產生全年調整後EBITDA利潤。

We still expect between 4.2 and 4.3 million existing U.S. homes to sell in 2023, but Redfin’s market share has been lower than expected. After year-over-year share gains in every quarter since our 2017 public offering, we lost 2 basis points of share in the fourth quarter of 2022, and 1 point in the first quarter of 2023. In the second quarter of 2023, our year-over-year share loss widened to 8 basis points, mainly due to one-time setbacks: agent layoffs forced us to reassign about a third of our active customers, and the closure of RedfinNow eliminated about 12% of our listing demand. We expect market share to improve from quarter-to-quarter by the fourth quarter, and perhaps as early as the third quarter.

我們仍然預計 2023 年美國現有房屋的銷售量將在 4.2 至 430 萬套之間，但 Redfin 的市場份額低於預期。自2017 年公開發行以來，我們每個季度的份額均同比增長，但我們的份額在2022 年第四季度下降了2 個基點，在2023 年第一季度下降了1 個基點。2023 年第二季度，我們的份額下降了- 份額虧損擴大至8 個基點，主要是由於一次性挫折：代理商裁員迫使我們重新分配約三分之一的活躍客戶，而RedfinNow 的關閉消除了我們約12% 的上市需求。我們預計到第四季度，甚至最早在第三季度，市場份額將環比提高。

Throughout the year, demand largely met or exceeded our expectations, but closed sales haven’t. From 2017 to 2022, between 6.3% and 7.2% of the people who contacted Redfin or our partner agents had closed a sale with us by this point in the year. In 2023, that number is 5.5%. We expect close rates to return to historical norms for 2 reasons.

全年需求基本上達到或超出了我們的預期，但成交量尚未達到或超出我們的預期。從 2017 年到 2022 年，在當年這個時候，聯繫 Redfin 或我們的合作夥伴代理商的人中有 6.3% 到 7.2% 已經與我們完成了銷售。 2023 年，這一數字為 5.5%。我們預計收盤價將回到歷史正常水平，原因有兩個。

As customers adjust to higher mortgage rates, our sales will become more predictable. And our plan to recruit and retain a more sales-driven agent, which we’ll discuss later in this call, will help us compete better against brokers who’ve been hungrier than ever before.

隨著客戶適應更高的抵押貸款利率，我們的銷售將變得更加可預測。我們計劃招募和保留更具銷售驅動力的代理商（我們將在本次電話會議稍後討論），這將幫助我們更好地與比以往任何時候都更加渴望的經紀人競爭前。

Our real-estate-services gross margins have improved from 29% in the second quarter of 2022 to 31% in the second quarter of 2023. Once we stop hosting tours for so many people who cancel their home-buying plans, gross margins will go up more. Eliminating the homebuyer commission refund is 1 source of margin gain, but we’ve also lowered the ratios of managers and support staff to agents, and switched from employees to contractors for listing photography, improving our long-term unit economics.

我們的房地產服務毛利率已從 2022 年第二季度的 29% 提高到 2023 年第二季度的 31%。一旦我們停止為如此多取消購房計劃的人提供旅遊服務，毛利率將會下降更多。取消購房者佣金退款是利潤增長的來源之一，但我們還降低了經理和支持人員與代理商的比例，並將掛牌攝影從員工改為承包商，從而改善了我們的長期部門經濟學。

One factor that will keep lifting margins but at the expense of share is the shift to partners. We estimate that in 2024, as many as 55% of our customer inquiries will be served by a partner agent, up from 45% so far this year and 37% in 2022. A sale, whether from a partner or an employee, has the same contribution to share, but our employees yield 40+% more sales from the same homebuying traffic. Since the sales we're shifting to partners are only marginally profitable for employees to handle, we can't worry about how many more closings an employee could've gotten. The share we’re focused on is our share of significantly profitable sales.

向合作夥伴的轉變將繼續提高利潤率，但會犧牲市場份額，這是一個因素。我們估計，到 2024 年，多達 55% 的客戶諮詢將由合作夥伴代理處理，高於今年迄今為止的 45%，到 2022 年該比例將達到 37%。無論是來自合作夥伴還是員工，銷售都具有同樣的份額貢獻，但我們的員工從相同的購房流量中獲得了40% 以上的銷售額。由於我們轉移給合作夥伴的銷售對於員工來說只能帶來微薄的利潤，因此我們不能擔心員工還能完成多少訂單。我們關注的份額是利潤豐厚的銷售份額。

And regardless of how much demand we shift to partners, or how much we limit spending, our growth can continue because its primary source has never been low-cost capital, but building a better listing-search site, and then using that to offer online visitors better service. Even with a drastic reduction in advertising, Redfin.com has been drawing visitors away from rival sites.

無論我們向合作夥伴轉移多少需求，或者我們限制支出多少，我們的增長都可以繼續，因為它的主要來源從來都不是低成本資本，而是建立一個更好的列表搜索網站，然後用它來提供在線服務為遊客提供更好的服務。儘管廣告大幅減少，Redfin.com 仍然吸引著競爭對手網站的訪問者。

According to Comscore, which we use to compare our traffic growth to others, second quarter visitors to Redfin.com increased year-over-year by 9%, compared to a 5% decline for the largest for-sale search site, and a 13% decline for the second-largest. The gap in year-over-year visitor growth between Redfin and these competitors averaged 12 points in the first quarter, and 17 in the second.

根據Comscore（我們用來將我們的流量增長與其他網站進行比較）的數據，Redfin.com 第二季度的訪問量同比增長了9%，而最大的待售搜索網站則下降了5%，而Redfin .com 的訪問量同比下降了13%。 % 降幅為第二大。第一季度 Redfin 與這些競爭對手的訪客同比增長平均差距為 12 個百分點，第二季度為 17 個百分點。

We know that this online traffic growth gives our sales force more bona fide opportunities to gain share, because we track the demand from our site all the way through to a sale, whether the customer closed with Redfin or switched to another broker. Comparing the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2022, a higher proportion of the people who bought a home had contacted a Redfin agent 12 months prior to their purchase.

我們知道，這種在線流量的增長為我們的銷售人員提供了更多真正的機會來獲得份額，因為我們跟踪從我們的網站到銷售的整個需求，無論客戶是與 Redfin 關閉還是轉向其他經紀人。與 2023 年上半年和 2022 年上半年相比，購房者在購房前 12 個月聯繫過 Redfin 經紀人的比例更高。

Our investment in artificial intelligence is one reason we’re confident Redfin's traffic can keep growing. The software we've already built for estimating a home's value or recommending a listing is based on artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is why our engineers don't have to update that software to recognize the growing importance of air conditioning in Seattle, or the increasing likelihood that post-pandemic homebuyers are looking further afield; the software updates itself. We’re now extending this software from for-sale listings to rental listings: in October 2022, for estimating the amount a home will rent for and, in the third quarter of 2023, for recommending apartments that we think our visitors will like.

我們對人工智能的投資是我們相信 Redfin 流量能夠持續增長的原因之一。我們已經開發的用於評估房屋價值或推薦房源的軟件是基於人工智能的。人工智能使得我們的工程師無需更新軟件即可認識到空調在西雅圖日益增長的重要性，或者大流行後購房者將目光投向更遠的地方的可能性越來越大；軟件會自行更新。我們現在正在將該軟件從待售清單擴展到租賃清單：在 2022 年 10 月，用於估算房屋的租金金額；在 2023 年第三季度，用於推薦我們認為的公寓我們的訪客會喜歡的。

We've also been at the forefront of conversational real-estate search via OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft technologies. But since our company spends so much on labor to interact with customers, prepare offers and underwrite closings, the larger opportunity may be in helping homebuyers who have contacted us for service. We’ve explored uses of this technology to make the Redfin employees who book home tours more efficient, or to host conversations with customers years away from a purchase, letting our agents spend more time with the people about to complete a sale.

我們還通過 OpenAI、Google 和 Microsoft 技術處於對話式房地產搜索的前沿。但由於我們公司在與客戶互動、準備報價和承保成交方面花費了大量人力，因此更大的機會可能是幫助那些聯繫我們尋求服務的購房者。我們已經探索了使用這項技術來提高預訂家庭旅遊的 Redfin 員工的效率，或者在購買後數年與客戶進行對話，讓我們的代理商花更多的時間與即將完成的人在一起一筆銷售。

We believe the efficiency gains that a technology-powered brokerage can get through the engineers we already have, accessing low-cost generative artificial intelligence via the Internet, will over time give us a competitive advantage commensurate with the first disruption in real estate, when Redfin first published listings on an online map.

我們相信，技術驅動的經紀公司可以通過我們現有的工程師，通過互聯網訪問低成本的生成人工智能來提高效率，隨著時間的推移，將為我們帶來與房地產行業第一次顛覆相稱的競爭優勢，當Redfin首次在在線地圖上發布列表。

Even as we expect increasing yields from our technology investments, sales performance should also improve. We expect that our low listing fees, coupled with our unrivaled ability to get online real-estate shoppers out for in-person home tours, can drive share gains for years to come in most U.S. markets. But in higher-priced coastal markets, starting with a pilot in San Francisco and LA, we're entering 2024 with a different approach to hiring agents.

儘管我們預計技術投資的收益會增加，但銷售業績也應該會有所改善。我們預計，我們低廉的掛牌費用，加上我們吸引在線房地產購物者親自參觀房屋的無與倫比的能力，可以在未來幾年推動大多數美國市場的份額增長。但在價格較高的沿海市場，從舊金山和洛杉磯的試點開始，我們將以不同的方式招聘代理商，進入 2024 年。

In the San Francisco Bay Area, our share is below 2%, but the share of people who bought a home and who had earlier contacted our agents for service is nearly 30%. It’s even higher for purchases above $1 million. Anyone launching a brokerage today with that much demand would have a massive advantage in recruiting and retaining the best agents.

在舊金山灣區，我們的比例低於2%，但買房並提前聯繫我們的代理商尋求服務的人比例接近30%。對於 100 萬美元以上的購買，價格甚至更高。今天，任何一家在如此大的需求下開設經紀公司的人都將在招募和留住最好的經紀人方面擁有巨大的優勢。

Entering 2024, we plan to give San Francisco and LA agents the lion's share of the commission on self-sourced sales while keeping for ourselves the high margins on Redfin-sourced sales. Our goal is to hire and keep agents who can deliver better service and higher close rates for Redfin-sourced customers buying homes above $1 million, and incremental profits from their own sales too. If this model works in California, we’ll extend it to other coastal cities with higher home prices, driving share gains in our largest, most profitable markets.

進入 2024 年，我們計劃向舊金山和洛杉磯代理商提供自營銷售佣金的大部分，同時保留 Redfin 採購銷售的高利潤。我們的目標是聘請和留住能夠為 Redfin 採購的購買 100 萬美元以上房屋的客戶提供更好的服務和更高的成交率的代理商，並從他們自己的銷售中增加利潤。如果這種模式在加州行得通，我們會將其推廣到房價較高的其他沿海城市，從而推動我們最大、利潤最高的市場的份額增長。