普拉格能源 (PLUG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

為了克服財務困難,Plug Power 正在尋求增加其設備銷售和改善服務。該公司計劃增加綠色氫氣的產量,以滿足客戶的需求。得益於在短時間內建造 Vista 工廠的經驗,該公司對其擴大生產規模的能力充滿信心。 Plug Power Inc. 是一家燃料電池公司,預計明年將產生 125 至 1.5 億美元的收入。該公司期望其新產品線能夠增值并快速增長。該公司正在利用其現有的製造和供應鏈基礎設施來生產其新產品線。

在回答有關公司來年計劃的問題時,首席執行官表示,他們將專注於兩個主要應用:在沒有電網的情況下為電動汽車充電,以及在其配送中心為傳統客戶供電。他估計他們明年的出貨量將在 20 到 30 兆瓦之間。

為了增加電動汽車的產量,特斯拉從競爭對手特斯拉那裡聘請了具有供應鏈管理經驗的人員。他們專注於產品性能所必需的加濕器和氫氣罐等關鍵項目。他們還在努力使供應商基礎多樣化並增加產量。

文本描述了 Joe Spak 提出的一個問題,該問題是關於公司對其實現燃料利潤階梯式變化的能力的信心程度。該公司回應說,它有信心實現燃料利潤率的階梯式變化,並且也有信心實現公司整體毛利率的階梯式變化。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Plug Power Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎參加 Plug Power 第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)作為提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Teal Hoyos, Director, Marketing Communications. Thank you. Please go ahead.

    現在我很高興向您介紹您的主持人,營銷傳播總監 Teal Hoyos。謝謝你。請繼續。

  • Teal Vivacqua Hoyos - Director of Marketing Communications

    Teal Vivacqua Hoyos - Director of Marketing Communications

  • Thank you. Welcome to the 2022 third quarter update call. This call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements contain projections of our future results of operations, or of our financial position or other forward-looking information. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provision for forward-looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

    謝謝你。歡迎來到 2022 年第三季度更新電話。本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包含對我們未來經營業績或我們的財務狀況或其他前瞻性信息的預測。我們打算將這些前瞻性陳述納入 1933 年《證券法》第 27A 條和 1934 年《證券交易法》第 21E 條中包含的前瞻性陳述的安全港條款。

  • We believe it is important to communicate our future expectations to investors. However, investors are cautioned not to only rely on forward-looking statements, and such statements should not be read or understood as a guarantee of future performance or results. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those discussed as a result of various factors including, but not limited to risks and uncertainties discussed under Item 1A Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2021, as well as other reports we file from time to time with the SEC.

    我們認為向投資者傳達我們對未來的期望非常重要。但是,請投資者註意不要僅僅依賴前瞻性陳述,此類陳述不應被閱讀或理解為對未來業績或結果的保證。此類陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果或業績與討論的結果或業績存在重大差異,這些因素包括但不限於我們在表格 10 上的年度報告中第 1A 項風險因素下討論的風險和不確定性 - K 為截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度,以及我們不時向 SEC 提交的其他報告。

  • These forward-looking statements speak only as of today in which the statements are made, and we do not undertake or intend to update any forward-looking statements after this call or as a result of new information.

    這些前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表這些陳述時發表,我們不承諾或打算在本次電話會議後或由於新信息而更新任何前瞻性陳述。

  • At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Plug's CEO, Andy Marsh.

    在這一點上,我想將電話轉給 Plug 的首席執行官 Andy Marsh。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, thank you, Teal. So we have published an investor letter today that provides details about the quarter, status of our projects and a summary of our midterm ambitions. I noticed some of our company is tough to financially understand in the near term. It really comes down to 2 reasons, the cost of hydrogen and selling more equipment.

    好吧,謝謝你,蒂爾。因此,我們今天發布了一封投資者信函,其中提供了有關本季度的詳細信息、我們的項目狀態以及我們的中期目標摘要。我注意到我們公司的一些公司在短期內很難從財務上理解。這實際上歸結為兩個原因,氫氣的成本和銷售更多設備。

  • The equation for success really comes down to building out our green hydrogen platform, which will transform a negative margin hydrogen business to a growing positive margin business just by turning on the plants. We've already demonstrated this in Tennessee. We can generate hydrogen at 1/3 of the cost we're paying from the industrial gas companies today. We won't be discussing this issue within a year. They'll be in the rearview mirror and the issue will be how to accelerate the plans.

    成功的方程式實際上歸結為建立我們的綠色氫平台,這將通過啟動工廠將負利潤的氫業務轉變為不斷增長的正利潤業務。我們已經在田納西州證明了這一點。我們可以以今天從工業氣體公司支付的成本的 1/3 生產氫氣。我們不會在一年內討論這個問題。他們將在後視鏡中,問題將是如何加速計劃。

  • Equipment sales, even for our new electrolyzer businesses gross margins are already over 15%. And we're just starting to scale. We've made fuel cells profitable and material handling and now doing this again in electrolyzers and stationery. You put these 2 items together with the real improvements in service, the 2023 targets of $1.4 billion in revenue, and exiting the year at breakeven operating margins is achievable.

    設備銷售,即使是我們新的電解槽業務的毛利率也已經超過 15%。我們才剛剛開始擴大規模。我們已經使燃料電池盈利和材料處理,現在在電解槽和文具中再次這樣做。您將這兩項與服務的真正改進、2023 年 14 億美元的收入目標以及以盈虧平衡的營業利潤率結束的一年結合在一起是可以實現的。

  • The long-term business prospects are even more attractive and all starts with Plug doing real things. I know many of you were at the symposium and you saw a real giga factory, real electrolyzer systems, real vehicles, real liquid hydrogen trailers, real fueling stations. You were able to touch and feel the hydrogen ecosystem, not in some distant future, but today.

    長期的商業前景更有吸引力,一切從 Plug 做實事開始。我知道你們中的許多人參加了研討會,你們看到了一個真正的超級工廠、真正的電解系統、真正的車輛、真正的液氫拖車、真正的加油站。你能夠觸摸和感受氫生態系統,不是在遙遠的未來,而是在今天。

  • Now for the future. Plug is a leader and will continue to be a leader in the energy transition. We have first-mover advantage in the fuel cell and hydrogen industry that we do not intend to seed. We will have first green hydrogen network across the United States by 2025.

    現在是為了未來。 Plug 是一個領導者,並將繼續成為能源轉型的領導者。我們在燃料電池和氫能行業擁有先發優勢,我們不打算播種。到 2025 年,我們將在美國建立第一個綠色氫網絡。

  • And when we look out to 2030, we'll have the most commercial vehicles on the road through our Renault JV, HYVIA. We'll have the largest deployments of PEM electrolyzers. We'll be selling fuel cell peaker plants at scale using our hydrogen and many, many more activities will be engaged with.

    展望 2030 年,我們的雷諾合資公司 HYVIA 將擁有最多的商用車。我們將部署最大規模的 PEM 電解槽。我們將使用我們的氫氣大規模銷售燃料電池峰值工廠,並且將參與更多的活動。

  • Finally, there are short-term challenges, but we have a clear, well-defined plan that is being demonstrated. And long term, we are building out our hydrogen ecosystem by ourselves and partners that, quite honestly, is unmatched in the industry.

    最後,存在短期挑戰,但我們有一個清晰的、定義明確的計劃正在展示中。從長遠來看,我們自己和合作夥伴正在建立我們的氫生態系統,老實說,這在行業中是無與倫比的。

  • Paul and I are now ready to take your questions.

    保羅和我現在準備回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question is coming from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Colin Rusch。

  • Kristen E. Owen - Associate

    Kristen E. Owen - Associate

  • This is Kristen on for Colin. So the first question, just with the substantial pipeline of opportunities, can you discuss how you are down selecting opportunities to pursue and to commit to, particularly for electrolyzer sales and potential hydrogen offtake agreements?

    這是科林的克里斯汀。所以第一個問題,就大量的機會而言,您能否討論一下您如何選擇追求和承諾的機會,特別是對於電解槽銷售和潛在的氫氣承購協議?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. I'm going to take the electrolyzer sales, and Sanjay is sitting here with me, and he works the hydrogen offtake agreements every day. .

    當然。我將負責電解槽的銷售,Sanjay 和我坐在這裡,他每天都在處理氫氣採購協議。 .

  • So with electrolyzers, there are a few questions we ask right up front. There are these huge opportunities. And does the customer really have access to renewable electricity or electricity at the scale that's required to generate hydrogen? It may seem like a simple question, but it actually is an important one. The second one is, do they have real projects? And do they have fundamentally land to be able to build an electrolyzer plant with? We really make sure we understand what is the application, what are they doing with the hydrogen.

    因此,對於電解槽,我們會提前提出一些問題。有這些巨大的機會。客戶真的可以獲得可再生電力或產生氫氣所需規模的電力嗎?這似乎是一個簡單的問題,但它實際上是一個重要的問題。第二個是,他們有真正的項目嗎?他們是否有基本的土地來建造電解廠?我們確實確保我們了解應用程序是什麼,他們在用氫做什麼。

  • And the third one is, in an industry like this, you have to always be asking the question. How is the customer going to quite honestly pay you? And how are they funded? And that's kind of the first 3 items we look at when we think about doing a deal and working with the customer. When that no hunt, Sanjay, how do you think about hydrogen itself, selling?

    第三個是,在這樣的行業中,您必須始終提出問題。客戶如何誠實地付錢給你?他們是如何獲得資金的?這是我們在考慮達成交易和與客戶合作時首先考慮的 3 個項目。當沒有狩獵時,桑傑,你如何看待氫氣本身,銷售?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Sure. A couple of things on that, right? So as we mentioned in our shareholder letter, the plan that we're about to build in Europe, we got 6x demand for that and we're just about to break ground, right? So I think the inbound on offtake for the hydrogen is actually pretty substantial, but this is how we think about it, right? We've told you in the past that, we do not want to commit more than 80% of the capacity because we want to leave 20% of that capacity to meet sort of peak demand, all the planned outages that we've seen in the industry to be able to support our customer as well as a broader hydrogen economy, number one.

    當然。有幾件事,對吧?所以正如我們在股東信中提到的,我們即將在歐洲建立的計劃,我們得到了 6 倍的需求,我們即將破土動工,對吧?所以我認為氫氣的進口實際上相當可觀,但這就是我們的想法,對吧?我們過去告訴過你,我們不想承諾超過 80% 的產能,因為我們希望留下 20% 的產能來滿足高峰需求,以及我們在行業能夠支持我們的客戶以及更廣泛的氫經濟,第一。

  • Number two, we have a lot of activity going on here. We're looking at some very, very sizable offtake agreements that are 5 to 7 years in term, that are focused on mobility market application. And we look forward to actually really updating you all here in not-too-distant future on some of those activity we got going on. Second, we're also working with some of the industrial gas companies where it could actually be either like a swap-type agreement or those that are not as heavy on the hydrogen side of the business. We're doing some of that work with them as well.

    第二,我們有很多活動在這裡進行。我們正在考慮一些非常非常大的承購協議,這些協議的期限為 5 到 7 年,專注於移動市場的應用。我們期待著在不久的將來真正向你們所有人更新我們正在進行的一些活動。其次,我們還與一些工業氣體公司合作,這些公司實際上可能是一種互換類型的協議,也可能是那些在氫氣方面不那麼重要的公司。我們也在和他們一起做一些這樣的工作。

  • So -- and then another thing we're really prioritizing is, as Andy touched on the activity in our stationery business, that's a huge demand driver for our green hydrogen as well. We want to make sure that the capacity that we're building is going to be available to support those apps and many of our customers as well. And as you guys know, we also have deals already with some of our pedestal customers as well. So the way we are looking at it right now, out of that 500 tons, probably about 200 tons of that is going to be for supporting internal activity, internal customer and another 200 tons of that is likely going to be the third party, partly speaking, largely in the mobility as well as in some of the industrial gas type customers as well.

    所以 - 然後我們真正優先考慮的另一件事是,正如安迪談到我們文具業務的活動時,這也是我們綠色氫的巨大需求驅動力。我們希望確保我們正在構建的容量能夠支持這些應用程序以及我們的許多客戶。正如你們所知,我們也已經與我們的一些基座客戶達成了交易。所以我們現在看待它的方式,在這 500 噸中,可能有大約 200 噸將用於支持內部活動、內部客戶,另外 200 噸可能將是第三方,部分說起來,主要在流動性以及一些工業氣體類型的客戶中也是如此。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Kristen, did I answer -- answered your question?

    克里斯汀,我回答了嗎——回答了你的問題?

  • Kristen E. Owen - Associate

    Kristen E. Owen - Associate

  • That's incredibly helpful and I appreciate that detail. So then if we think about just the incremental scale-up needed for the supply chain for fuel cells, are you seeing suppliers scaling to support the additional platforms beyond Plug? Or are they really focusing on just you? Just any color on the supply chain scale up.

    這非常有幫助,我很欣賞這個細節。那麼,如果我們只考慮燃料電池供應鏈所需的增量擴大規模,您是否看到供應商擴大規模以支持 Plug 以外的其他平台?還是他們真的只關注你?供應鏈上的任何顏色都會放大。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • That's another good question. I think many folks on the call were to our giga factory, and you can see how Plug is thinking about scaling our own manufacturing operations. I think when you take a step then, look at our Vista plant, which is 400,000 square feet, which we were able to build in less than a year to support our business activity. So from our own internal capability, we feel very comfortable with.

    這是另一個好問題。我想很多人都來過我們的千兆工廠,你可以看到 Plug 是如何考慮擴大我們自己的製造業務的。我想當你邁出一步時,看看我們的 Vista 工廠,它佔地 400,000 平方英尺,我們能夠在不到一年的時間裡建造它來支持我們的業務活動。所以從我們自己的內在能力來看,我們覺得很舒服。

  • As you know, we hired people who scaled the Tesla business to run both our operation, and he has reporting into him, folks who worked into Teslas supply chain. We are looking -- we are very focused on some critical items. Some of those items are, I'll say, critical to the performance of the products. Things you may not think a lot about, things like humidifiers, hydrogen tanks. And we have efforts not only to support strongly our present suppliers, but we really had a focus on diversifying our supplier base.

    如您所知,我們聘請了擴展特斯拉業務的人來運營我們的業務,他已經向他匯報,這些人曾在特斯拉供應鏈工作過。我們正在尋找——我們非常關註一些關鍵項目。我會說,其中一些項目對產品的性能至關重要。你可能不會想太多的東西,比如加濕器、氫氣罐。我們不僅努力支持我們現有的供應商,而且我們確實專注於使我們的供應商基礎多樣化。

  • And like many people, we're very focused on semiconductors to make sure we have the appropriate semiconductors that meet our needs. I think there's a lot of excitement about this industry. Lots of folks are looking and trying to understand how they can enter. And look, we have volume today, and that makes us attractive.

    和許多人一樣,我們非常關注半導體,以確保我們擁有滿足我們需求的合適半導體。我認為這個行業有很多令人興奮的地方。許多人正在尋找並試圖了解他們如何進入。看,我們今天有數量,這讓我們很有吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Bill Peterson of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾·彼得森。

  • William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

    William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

  • Wanted to talk about the, I guess, the electrolyzer business merchant. It doesn't seem the backlog has grown. And I'm wondering if this is a function of maybe more your side or if customers are delaying FIDs, perhaps trying to get a better understanding of policy support benefits of the IRA, maybe renegotiating PPAs. Just I recognize it's probably transient, but I'm just kind of curious on what's happening with the backlog. And I guess maybe looking ahead to, where do you see more of the interest coming from as you discussed with your sales folks, ammonia, refining, smaller projects, large scale? Just kind of get a feel for how we should think about it into next year?

    想談談,我猜,電解槽商人。積壓似乎沒有增加。我想知道這是否是您一方的功能,或者客戶是否延遲了 FID,也許是為了更好地了解 IRA 的政策支持好處,也許是重新談判 PPA。只是我認識到這可能是暫時的,但我只是對積壓的情況有點好奇。我想也許展望未來,當您與銷售人員討論合成氨、精煉、小型項目、大規模時,您會從哪裡看到更多的興趣?只是感覺一下我們應該如何考慮到明年?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Bill, I think that, first, I think that the funnel has changed. We probably -- we're modest in the investor letter. I think that when you take a look at it, the key areas we're seeing activity in is more in the industrial applications, where you're looking specifically at opportunities with things like fertilizer, e-methanol are real areas we see lots of activities.

    所以比爾,我認為,首先,我認為渠道已經改變。我們可能 - 我們在投資者信中很謙虛。我認為,當您查看它時,我們看到活動的關鍵領域更多地是在工業應用中,您正在特別關注肥料、電子甲醇等領域的機會,這是我們看到很多的真實領域活動。

  • As far as scale, and I'm going to separate scale into what projects will be the big projects to ship next year. I can tell you and you may have -- you saw at the symposium, Bill, the 5-megawatt platform. We're seeing -- in many ways, it's kind of almost a starter kit. But we see a lot of interest also in things like bottle manufacturing. We think next year, just to give you a gauge, we'll probably ship about 400 megawatts of that platform. On top of that, there will be a lot of work done on the development of more larger scale plants. But that's kind of how we see it rolling out.

    至於規模,我將把規模劃分為明年要發布的大型項目。我可以告訴你,你可能已經 - 你在研討會上看到了,比爾,5 兆瓦的平台。我們看到——在很多方面,它幾乎是一個入門工具包。但我們也看到了人們對瓶子製造等事物的濃厚興趣。我們認為明年,只是為了給你一個衡量標準,我們可能會運送大約 400 兆瓦的該平台。最重要的是,將在開發更大規模的工廠方面做很多工作。但這就是我們看到它推出的方式。

  • So the big numbers for backlogs will roll off more in the '24, '25 time frame, though there'll be some upfront charges that you'll see. But it really so much of it's in the industrial markets where is you show as shown in our investor letter, things like ammonia, methanol, steel, even mixing a natural gas pipeline, there's a lot of activity going on there at the moment. Is that helpful, Bill?

    因此,在 24 年和 25 年的時間範圍內,大量積壓的訂單將會減少,儘管您會看到一些前期費用。但正如我們的投資者信中所顯示的那樣,工業市場真的有很多,比如氨、甲醇、鋼鐵,甚至是混合天然氣管道,目前那裡正在進行很多活動。這有用嗎,比爾?

  • William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

    William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

  • Yes. Yes, I was just trying to see if this very near-term delays, but it feels like in any case, you're pretty feel good about '23.

    是的。是的,我只是想看看這是否是近期的延遲,但無論如何,你對 23 年的感覺都很好。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

    William Chapman Peterson - Analyst

  • So just the second question I have is on stationary power. Thanks for giving us the color around how you see '23 and '24 evolving. Can you give us a broad feel for how we should think about sort of pricing per megawatt and how should we think about making the margin structure? I presume at low scale, the margins are not going to be coming in directly at corporate average. But how should -- how should this evolve over the next few years?

    所以我的第二個問題是關於固定電源。感謝您為我們提供關於您如何看待 '23 和 '24 演變的顏色。您能否讓我們大致了解一下我們應該如何考慮每兆瓦的定價以及我們應該如何考慮制定利潤率結構?我認為在小規模下,利潤率不會直接達到公司平均水平。但是,在接下來的幾年裡,這應該如何發展呢?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I'll make some comments, and I'll let Paul -- Paul's in London at the moment. I'll let him add to my comments. I think that those projects will primarily next year be more geared towards really 2 applications. One is where grid is not available in charging EVs, where I think half of what we ship next year will fall into that category. I think the second category that is really more with our traditional customers at their distribution centers, where we'll be deploying stationary products. And I think, Jose, our VP of sales in that area, is projecting between 20 to 30 megawatts. We have the capacity, and we're driving the supply chain to make sure we could support 60 megawatts, just to give you a gauge.

    是的。我會發表一些意見,我會讓保羅-- 保羅現在在倫敦。我會讓他添加到我的評論中。我認為這些項目明年將主要面向真正的 2 個應用程序。一個是無法為電動汽車充電的電網,我認為我們明年出貨的一半將屬於這一類。我認為第二類實際上更多的是我們的傳統客戶在他們的配送中心,我們將在那裡部署固定產品。我認為,我們在該領域的銷售副總裁 Jose 預計將達到 20 到 30 兆瓦。我們有能力,我們正在推動供應鏈,以確保我們能夠支持 60 兆瓦,只是為了給你一個衡量標準。

  • We think that business overall because there's more to that business than just the stationary products. You have to build the hydrogen infrastructure. We see that business next year when you include everything that needs to be included probably somewhere between $125 million to $150 million in revenue. Paul, I know -- would you like to add to what I've said?

    我們認為該業務總體上是因為該業務不僅僅是固定產品。你必須建立氫基礎設施。我們明年會看到這項業務,當您將需要包含的所有內容包括在內時,收入可能在 1.25 億美元到 1.5 億美元之間。保羅,我知道——你想補充我所說的嗎?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I just would comment on the margin side. The real big benefit for Plug is that there's a lot of commonality and components in these products and leveraging what we already established as the base for supply chain and manufacturing. So that is a great platform to kick off from.

    是的。我只想評論邊緣方面。 Plug 真正的大好處是這些產品有很多共性和組件,並利用我們已經建立的供應鍊和製造基地。所以這是一個很好的平台。

  • And then two, because the sales opportunities and the funnel is growing surpass, it will scale faster than other businesses sort of from early on. So all of those factors help mitigate some of the -- maybe some of the start-up effect you have of ramping newer products. So we absolutely expect that product will -- we're targeting north of 30% on that product line as we are on any equipment product line. And I think it will absolutely scale fast in that direction. So we expect it to be accretive next year, and we expect it to grow quickly thereafter.

    然後第二,由於銷售機會和渠道正在增長,它將從一開始就比其他業務更快地擴展。因此,所有這些因素都有助於減輕一些——也許是你推出新產品的一些啟動效應。因此,我們絕對希望該產品能夠 - 我們的目標是該產品線的 30% 以上,就像我們在任何設備產品線上一樣。而且我認為它絕對會朝著這個方向快速擴展。因此,我們預計它明年會有所增長,並且我們預計此後會迅速增長。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Bill, I would have one other right is that I think about our ProGen module, a lot like a solar panel. So that ProGen module, which we're selling to HYVIA, is essentially the same ProGen module from an architecture point of view, especially that we're going to be using in stationery. So there's a lot of -- if you think about there's a lot of economies that come from the fact that those product lines are complementary.

    比爾,我還有另一項權利是我認為我們的 ProGen 模塊很像太陽能電池板。因此,我們出售給 HYVIA 的 ProGen 模塊從架構的角度來看本質上是相同的 ProGen 模塊,尤其是我們將在文具中使用的。所以有很多——如果你想想有很多經濟來自這些產品線互補的事實。

  • And just like the solar industry, how solar panels dramatically reduced in cost because you were building the same thing over and over again. In reality, what we're doing in mobility and what we're doing in stationery for the fundamental platform is exactly the same, which should really help our cost position next year, but especially long term.

    就像太陽能行業一樣,太陽能電池板是如何大幅降低成本的,因為你一遍又一遍地建造同樣的東西。實際上,我們在移動性方面所做的事情和我們在文具領域為基礎平台所做的事情是完全相同的,這應該確實有助於我們明年的成本定位,尤其是從長遠來看。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from P.J. Juvekar of Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 P.J. Juvekar。

  • Eric B Petrie - VP & Senior Associate

    Eric B Petrie - VP & Senior Associate

  • This is Eric Petrie on for P.J. Could you just give us a little bit of essence as to Amazon's $2.1 billion portfolio deal going from forklifts and kind of what's next for them looking at either fuel cell trucks, fuel cell power generation, electrolyzers? What's the next thing that they're looking at?

    這是 Eric Petrie 為 P.J. 你能否給我們一些關於亞馬遜 21 億美元的叉車投資組合交易的精髓,以及他們在燃料電池卡車、燃料電池發電、電解槽方面的下一步行動?他們接下來要看的是什麼?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, yes, yes. Why don't we start with green hydrogen, Sanjay?

    對對對。桑傑,我們為什麼不從綠色氫開始?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So as you saw in the shareholder letter, right, we did [2A] 30-tons per day green hydrogen offtake agreement with Amazon. So again, that's just the beginning of many portfolio sales opportunity we can have. That's the value of what we talked about, our vertically integrated model and all the efforts that we've put into positioning the company to where we are. So with that, why don't I turn it to you, Andy?

    因此,正如您在股東信中看到的那樣,對,我們與亞馬遜簽訂了 [2A] 每天 30 噸的綠色氫採購協議。再說一次,這只是我們可以擁有的許多投資組合銷售機會的開始。這就是我們所談論的價值、我們的垂直整合模式以及我們為將公司定位到我們所處的位置所付出的所有努力。那麼,我為什麼不把它交給你,安迪?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So if you look at what Amazon said at the symposium, they really highlighted the need for hydrogen across a wide variety of applications, everywhere from stationary products to on-road vehicles, to electrolyzers. And obviously, we are engaged in all those areas with Amazon. Obviously, I can't say too much more because of nondisclosure agreements. But I can tell you from -- if you listen to what Dean Fullerton says, who runs over 30,000 people in the logistics group at Amazon. They are committed to green hydrogen. They're committed to Plug. We've been their partner now for a long time, and they're really looking to scale this business with us. And obviously, the size of what we're looking at with them, I think you can -- the kind of that $2.1 billion gives you a feel for the scale.

    是的。因此,如果你看看亞馬遜在研討會上所說的話,他們確實強調了氫在各種應用中的需求,從固定產品到公路車輛,再到電解槽,無處不在。顯然,我們與亞馬遜在所有這些領域都有合作。顯然,由於保密協議,我不能說太多。但我可以告訴你——如果你聽聽迪恩富勒頓的話,他在亞馬遜的物流部門管理著 30,000 多人。他們致力於綠色氫。他們致力於Plug。我們長期以來一直是他們的合作夥伴,他們真的希望與我們一起擴大這項業務。顯然,我們正在與他們一起研究的規模,我認為你可以 - 那種 21 億美元讓你感受到規模。

  • Eric B Petrie - VP & Senior Associate

    Eric B Petrie - VP & Senior Associate

  • And then just turning to like commercial vehicles, HYVIA. When should we expect kind of going from pilot to commercial orders? And we've seen some delays on the truck side as well. So just any thoughts there.

    然後只是轉向像商用車,海威亞。我們什麼時候應該期待從試點到商業訂單?我們也看到卡車方面的一些延誤。所以只是任何想法。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So -- first, I'd like to say Renault had their Investor today, and HYVIA was presented as a model of how they would like to think about their future. But we have built a facility with them that can support deployment of 800 vans next year. We have already identified 9 customers, which we've named and others who are looking to start using these vehicles. I can tell you we expect that facility to be -- HYVIA expect that facility to be sold out next year and the scale from there.

    所以——首先,我想說雷諾今天有他們的投資者,而 HYVIA 是作為他們想如何思考未來的模型而提出的。但我們已經與他們建立了一個設施,可以支持明年部署 800 輛貨車。我們已經確定了 9 位客戶,我們已經命名了這些客戶以及其他希望開始使用這些車輛的客戶。我可以告訴你,我們預計該設施將—— HYVIA 預計該設施明年將售罄,並且規模會從那裡擴大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joe Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • So look, I know you sort of led off here talking about some of the modeling difficulties and the issues impacting the near term and how you don't think that persists in the future. And I can appreciate all that. And in the letter, again, you talked about a step change in fuel margins, for instance. And I know at the Symposium, you guided that minus 35%, I think, for the year, which obviously would be a big step change from where you're at now.

    所以看,我知道你在這裡談到了一些建模困難和影響近期的問題,以及你認為未來不會持續存在的問題。我可以欣賞這一切。例如,在信中,您再次談到了燃料利潤率的逐步變化。而且我知道在研討會上,我認為今年你指導了負 35%,這顯然是你現在所處的一個很大的變化。

  • But with all due respect, I mean we're going on over a year about hearing about step changes and the margins continue to drag. So I guess I really want to understand your level of confidence there. You also sort of talked about, or I think earlier today in response to another question, some of the -- some charges for industrial application. I'm not sure if you meant that was for you or for your customers and if that was contemplated. So I guess what I'm really giving you an opportunity to do maybe is -- maybe add a range or some sort of sensitivity around how you feel about the gross margins at the fuel level and the overall company for next year?

    但恕我直言,我的意思是,我們將持續一年多的時間來聽到有關步驟變化的消息,並且利潤率繼續拖累。所以我想我真的很想了解你在那裡的信心水平。你也談到了,或者我認為今天早些時候回答另一個問題,一些工業應用的收費。我不確定您的意思是為您還是為您的客戶,以及是否考慮過。所以我想我真正給你機會做的也許是——也許增加一個範圍或某種敏感性,圍繞你對明年燃料水平和整個公司的毛利率的看法?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Joe, I think you've misunderstood us on 2 levels here. And so I'll let Sanjay address the hydrogen margins because he's a little perplexed. So let me -- let him explain. And I'll ask -- and then after you get done, I'll ask you more about the industrial components.

    所以喬,我認為你在這裡誤解了我們的兩個層面。所以我會讓桑傑解決氫氣邊緣問題,因為他有點困惑。所以讓我——讓他解釋一下。我會問 - 然後在你完成後,我會問你更多關於工業組件的信息。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yes. So Joe, I think -- look, I appreciate the question, right? And as Andy mentioned in his prepared remarks, there's really 2 factors to drive this margin, hydrogen and equipment, right? So let me take the hydrogen one first. So, so far, other than our plant in Tennessee, we have been buying hydrogen from the third parties, as you very well know. And that hydrogen price has been a function of the price of natural gas. And we know what has happened to the price of natural gas, right? Price of natural gas went up almost 61% in Q2 of this year. And there was a lag in terms of what the hydrogen fuel cost for us in Q3, which is why you're seeing the margin deteriorate from Q2 to Q3 as it relates to what happened to that natural gas prices.

    是的。所以喬,我想——聽著,我很欣賞這個問題,對吧?正如安迪在他準備好的評論中提到的那樣,推動這一利潤的真正因素有兩個,氫氣和設備,對吧?所以讓我先取氫氣。所以,到目前為止,除了我們在田納西州的工廠外,我們一直在從第三方購買氫氣,這一點你很清楚。氫氣價格一直是天然氣價格的函數。我們知道天然氣價格發生了什麼變化,對吧?今年第二季度,天然氣價格上漲了近 61%。第三季度我們的氫燃料成本存在滯後,這就是為什麼你看到利潤率從第二季度到第三季度惡化,因為這與天然氣價格的變化有關。

  • But now fast forward, right, now we are commissioning our plant in Georgia before the year is over, we will start our commissioning of our plant in St. Gabriel, Louisiana before the year is over. We're expanding in Tennessee, right? We have multiple other plants that we're starting to break ground on. We're starting to make progress on, but we'll have that about 200 tons of plant being commissioned by the end of 2023.

    但現在快進,對,現在我們在年底前調試我們在喬治亞州的工廠,我們將在年底前開始調試我們在路易斯安那州聖加布里埃爾的工廠。我們正在田納西州擴張,對吧?我們還有多個其他工廠正在開始破土動工。我們開始取得進展,但到 2023 年底,我們將有大約 200 噸的工廠投入使用。

  • So as this plant start to produce hydrogen, that plants come online. As Andy said, the cost is going to be 1/3 of what we're paying for that third-party hydrogen cost. And even lending some of the legacy contract that we have, all of them taper off by 2025 with the blend of what we're going to be producing and servicing our customer third-party sales that we're going to have, we absolutely feel very confident that as you go to the end of 2023, we will exit the year with operating breakeven performance with our fuel business. That will create a step change in our margin profile. And with that, Andy, why don't I turn it over to you how that confluence with the equipment margin and expansion with the sales and how that plays out?

    因此,當這家工廠開始生產氫氣時,這些工廠就會上線。正如安迪所說,成本將是我們為第三方氫成本支付的 1/3。甚至借出我們擁有的一些遺留合同,到 2025 年所有這些合同都將逐漸減少,同時我們將生產和服務於我們將擁有的客戶第三方銷售,我們絕對覺得非常有信心,隨著您到 2023 年底,我們將以燃料業務的運營盈虧平衡表現退出這一年。這將在我們的保證金狀況中產生一個階梯式的變化。有了這個,安迪,我為什麼不把它與設備利潤和與銷售的擴張融合在一起,以及它是如何發揮作用的呢?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. When Sanjay, as I mentioned, in start, Joe, it's really pretty simple. Simple and it's hard to do. But you look at Tennessee, which is about 1/5 or capacity, we already are producing hydrogen at 1/3 of the cost that we have to buy it for today. We're going to have a lot more hydrogen which is our own. I think we're looking at 60 tons of our own next year just for our own customers. That's going to be a very healthy, profitable business for us.

    是的。正如我所提到的,當桑傑開始時,喬,這真的很簡單。很簡單,也很難做到。但是你看看田納西州,大約是 1/5 或容量,我們已經以我們今天必須購買的成本的 1/3 生產氫氣。我們將擁有更多的氫,這是我們自己的。我想我們明年只為我們自己的客戶尋找 60 噸我們自己的產品。對我們來說,這將是一項非常健康、有利可圖的業務。

  • And also with the production tax credit, some of that will keep, some of that will give to customers. And that combination will actually drive a lot more equipment sales. So I guess, we're -- when I take a look at the hydrogen portion of this, it's really easy to see if you live it every day, but I know that -- I can understand your thought process, Joe. In your other question, Joe, I really didn't understand. I didn't really think I said anything. I must really miss it -- I must have really misspoken or said something that...

    還有生產稅收抵免,其中一些將保留,一些將提供給客戶。這種組合實際上將推動更多的設備銷售。所以我想,我們 - 當我看一下它的氫部分時,很容易看出你是否每天都生活,但我知道 - 我可以理解你的思維過程,喬。喬,你的另一個問題,我真的不明白。我真的不認為我說了什麼。我一定真的很想念它——我一定是真的說錯了話或者說了什麼……

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • Yes. Also, let me -- I guess, first of all, I totally get what you're talking about on the cost of hydrogen coming down. I guess my -- the point of my question is that underneath that are embedded in that assumption is clearly some glide path on the ramp of plants, right, to sort of be able to produce our own hydrogen. And I wanted to -- that's what I want, I guess, to better understand because clearly, if that doesn't occur, then the margins will continue to suffer.

    是的。另外,讓我 - 我想,首先,我完全明白你所說的氫氣成本下降。我想我的 - 我的問題的重點是,在這個假設之下顯然是植物坡道上的一些滑行路徑,對,有點能夠產生我們自己的氫氣。我想 - 我想這就是我想要更好地理解的原因,因為很明顯,如果不發生這種情況,那麼利潤將繼續受到影響。

  • So I guess I wanted to -- sort of a point estimate seems just a very defined and I wanted to understand maybe like a little bit more of a range of outcomes as you see it. On the -- I thought you had mentioned, Andy, that when you're talking about in response to another question, some of the industrial applications for hydrogen, you mentioned -- I thought you had mentioned there might be some upfront charges. I didn't -- I didn't know if you meant for your customers or for you on...

    所以我想我想 - 一種點估計似乎只是一個非常明確的,我想理解可能像你看到的更多的一系列結果。關於 - 我想你提到過,安迪,當你在回答另一個問題時,你提到的氫的一些工業應用 - 我想你提到過可能會有一些預付費用。我沒有——我不知道你是為了你的客戶還是為了你……

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Joe, I have no idea what I said, Joe. But I didn't -- if I said that, there are no upfront charges, I think -- I don't know. I must have not been clear. There's no upfront charges. So on the plants, Joe, Georgia, if you go look at our investor letter, it's pretty clear where we are in Georgia. We'll have that plant commission by the end of the year. The equipment is there. We're already producing hydrogen there as low -- at low volume with our first electrolyzers that have been deployed. That will be scaling up and putting out hydrogen for production at scale within 3 months.

    喬,我不知道我說了什麼,喬。但我沒有——如果我這麼說,我認為沒有預付費用——我不知道。我一定沒有說清楚。沒有預付費用。所以關於工廠,喬,佐治亞州,如果你去看我們的投資者信,很清楚我們在佐治亞州的位置。我們將在年底前獲得工廠委託。設備在那裡。我們已經使用我們部署的第一台電解槽以低產量生產氫氣。這將擴大規模,並在 3 個月內大規模生產氫氣。

  • If I look at what we're doing with OLED, that plant is an exact copy of what we're doing in Tennessee. The equipment is there. And I think we scaled additional capacity at Tennessee in 3 months.

    如果我看看我們正在用 OLED 做什麼,那家工廠就是我們在田納西州所做的完全複製。設備在那裡。我認為我們在 3 個月內擴大了田納西州的額外產能。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • 3 months. Got it.

    3個月。知道了。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So I guess we don't see maybe the risk that I understand you may see. So I guess we don't see that -- I guess, the challenged levels we see, Joe, are less than you may think.

    所以我想我們看不到我理解你可能會看到的風險。所以我想我們沒有看到——我想,我們看到的挑戰水平,喬,比你想像的要少。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. If I could squeeze one more in here. It looked like there was a little bit of another inventory build. I'm wondering how much of that is because of some of the project delays you mentioned or how much is maybe some buffer to be able to meet demand because of supply chains? And like what -- how should we think about the right level of inventory for what the business is today?

    好的。很公平。如果我能在這裡再擠一個。看起來還有一點點另一個庫存構建。我想知道其中有多少是因為你提到的一些項目延誤,或者有多少緩衝可以滿足供應鏈的需求?就像什麼 - 我們應該如何考慮適合當今業務的庫存水平?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to let Paul take that one, Jeff. Paul?

    我要讓保羅拿那個,傑夫。保羅?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. One thing to keep in context, when you look at the (inaudible) timing of the volume is and the sales and context of our guidance, the volume in Q4 will be -- could be in the upper ends of double Q3. So -- and maybe even more in the range of possibilities. We're working every day to deliver all of those programs. And so there's a lot of buildup for that. And that's really the drive.

    是的。需要注意的一件事是,當您查看交易量的(聽不清)時間以及我們指導的銷售和背景時,第四季度的交易量將——可能是第三季度雙倍的上限。所以 - 甚至更多的可能性。我們每天都在努力提供所有這些計劃。所以有很多積累。這就是真正的驅動力。

  • What I would also say is that when you look at the mix of things that we're doing, there's a lot of new platforms between on-road ELX or electrolyzers, stationary new programs in Europe. I mean it's just a broad -- all of the companies that we've acquired, all of them have different mix and supply chain and scaling opportunities that we're working through too quickly. We have the fortunate problem of a big growing backlog and opportunities scale to meet all those. So we're focused mainly on delivering and growing that and then you optimize.

    我還要說的是,當你看到我們正在做的事情的組合時,在公路 ELX 或電解槽之間有很多新平台,在歐洲是固定的新項目。我的意思是這只是一個廣泛的 - 我們收購的所有公司,他們都有不同的組合和供應鏈以及我們正在過快地處理的擴展機會。我們有一個幸運的問題是大量的積壓和機會規模來滿足所有這些。因此,我們主要專注於交付和發展它,然後您進行優化。

  • We've turned on the factory up in Rochester. We literally just last weekend turned on production in the new Vista facility and that scale up in that facility was another record time kind of scale up. So short answer to your question is, I'm a big believer in no inventory. I think just in time is the best answer, but you will see it come down, and you will see it optimize in the near term as we work through scaling each of those individual businesses and volume helps a lot. So third quarter should be a big -- we'll put a big dent in it -- sorry, fourth quarter will put a dent.

    我們已經啟動了羅切斯特的工廠。實際上,我們上週末剛剛在新的 Vista 設施中開始生產,而在該設施中擴大規模是另一種創紀錄的規模擴大。對您的問題的簡短回答是,我非常相信沒有庫存。我認為及時是最好的答案,但你會看到它下降,並且你會看到它在短期內優化,因為我們通過擴展每個單獨的業務和數量有很大幫助。所以第三季度應該是一個大的——我們會在它裡面有一個很大的凹痕——抱歉,第四季度會有一個凹痕。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Alex Kania of Wolfe Research.

    下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Alex Kania。

  • Alexis Stephen Kania - SVP

    Alexis Stephen Kania - SVP

  • Maybe just one simple kind of clarification question just on the shareholder letter. It's just thinking about interpreting the kind of average fuel molecule cost chart. Is that based on -- I guess it assumes what your expected level of hydrogen sales or production is going to be over the course of next year. But does that also assume something roughly close to natural gas forward curve? So we're kind of looking at kind of peak, let's say, margin tightness next quarter and then it ends up falling even just based on -- are we looking for gas prices on top of the swap to green?

    也許只是股東信上的一種簡單的澄清問題。它只是在考慮解釋這種平均燃料分子成本圖表。這是基於 - 我想它假設了你明年的氫氣銷售或生產的預期水平。但這是否也假設大致接近天然氣遠期曲線?因此,我們正在尋找一種峰值,比如說,下個季度的利潤率緊縮,然後它最終會下降,甚至只是基於——我們是否在尋找綠色互換之上的天然氣價格?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I'm going to let Sanjay answer that, Alex.

    我會讓桑傑回答這個問題,亞歷克斯。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Yes. Alex, short answer is yes. We have looked at the future of the natural gas prices to blend what we buy from the third party on that, right? So obviously, that's why you see the peak here. Hopefully, this is a peak here in Q3 from the third-party purchase perspective. And it takes into consideration what we expect our production cost to be from all of these different green hydrogen plant. And again, we do have the incremental benefit of the production tax credit as well.

    是的。亞歷克斯,簡短的回答是肯定的。我們已經研究了天然氣價格的未來,以混合我們從第三方購買的價格,對吧?很明顯,這就是為什麼你會看到這裡的高峰。希望從第三方購買的角度來看,這是第三季度的一個高峰。並且它考慮到了我們對所有這些不同的綠色氫工廠的生產成本的預期。再說一次,我們也確實獲得了生產稅收抵免的增量收益。

  • So that's why with the PTC, with our production despite this third-party existing contract in place is what gives us the confidence why we believe that exiting next year we'll be able to get to that operating breakeven performance in our business.

    所以這就是為什麼有了 PTC,儘管有第三方現有合同,我們的生產讓我們有信心,為什麼我們相信明年退出我們將能夠在我們的業務中實現運營盈虧平衡表現。

  • Alexis Stephen Kania - SVP

    Alexis Stephen Kania - SVP

  • Okay. Great. And then this was -- you talked about maybe a little bit in the prepared remarks, but just could you elaborate maybe a little bit more on discussions with some of these other industrial gas companies. Am I assuming that, that will be beyond Olin? And then maybe just really with respect to Olin, if you could maybe talk about -- there's also a discussion in the investor letter about exploring other sites and things like that. But just kind of -- what kind of -- given Olin's kind of inherent hydrogen, kind of production for the chemical processes, kind of how big could you see that partnership timely getting to?

    好的。偉大的。然後是 - 你在準備好的評論中可能談到了一點,但你能否詳細說明與其他一些工業氣體公司的討論。我是在假設,那將超出奧林嗎?然後也許真的關於奧林,如果你可以談論 - 在投資者信中還有關於探索其他網站和類似事情的討論。但是只是——什麼樣的——考慮到奧林固有的氫,化學過程的生產,你能看到這種夥伴關係及時擴大到多大程度?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So Alex, we're just getting the partnership started, right? But obviously, we've been working with Olin for a long time, right? Tennessee is the plan that is also a feed gas coming from Olin. So it's been successful in Tennessee. We expect that success to continue also in Louisiana. And as you rightfully pointed out, they certainly do have a lot of feed gas available in the market. There's a lot of discussion going on.

    所以亞歷克斯,我們才剛剛開始合作,對吧?但很明顯,我們已經和 Olin 合作了很長時間,對吧?田納西州的計劃也是來自奧林的原料氣。所以它在田納西州取得了成功。我們預計路易斯安那州也將繼續取得成功。正如您正確指出的那樣,他們在市場上確實有大量的原料氣。有很多討論正在進行。

  • Give us some time, we'll be happy to share with you a lot more incremental updates. And we're in a discussion and dialogue with a partner right now, but I do want to have some time here before we can get into more specifics on that. But I think you're thinking a logic is the right one here because they certainly do have a lot of feed gas available, and we're in discussion with them in terms of how can we rapidly expand this partnership into something much bigger than just the Tennessee and Louisiana as well. That's on Olin side, right?

    給我們一些時間,我們很樂意與您分享更多增量更新。我們現在正在與合作夥伴進行討論和對話,但我確實希望在這裡有一些時間,然後我們才能討論更多細節。但我認為你認為這裡的邏輯是正確的,因為他們確實有很多可用的原料氣,我們正在與他們討論如何迅速將這種夥伴關係擴展到更大的領域田納西州和路易斯安那州也是如此。那是在奧林那邊,對吧?

  • And when we were referring about some of the industrial gas opportunity. Look, I mean, over time, this hydrogen should enter into some sort of a swap agreement. If you're looking for a green hydrogen, if you don't have it and if Plug has it, we're happy to provide that green hydrogen industrial gas company as well because it's a big market. We all have to work together, number one.

    當我們提到一些工業氣體機會時。聽著,我的意思是,隨著時間的推移,這種氫應該進入某種互換協議。如果您正在尋找綠色氫氣,如果您沒有,但如果 Plug 有,我們也很樂意提供綠色氫氣工業氣體公司,因為它是一個大市場。我們都必須共同努力,第一。

  • Number two, there are some of the smaller industrial gas companies that actually don't have a lot of hydrogen capacity, probably would like to have that as a part of your portfolio offering as well. And that's where we have some of those discussions going on at a pretty advanced stage as a matter of fact, and that's really what we're referring to.

    第二,一些規模較小的工業氣體公司實際上並沒有太多的氫氣產能,可能也希望將其作為您的產品組合的一部分。事實上,這就是我們在相當高級階段進行的一些討論,而這正是我們所指的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The next question is coming from Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum.

    (操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Eric Stine。

  • Eric Andrew Stine - Senior Research Analyst

    Eric Andrew Stine - Senior Research Analyst

  • So I have been jumping between calls. Apology -- probably already been asked. But just curious. I mean, I know when you provided the updated guidance back, I mean it was a couple of weeks before the symposium, you certainly contemplated a third quarter, fourth quarter split that was going to be magnified. And I'm just curious how the split actually played out? Is that -- I mean, was that in line with your expectations?

    所以我一直在通話之間跳躍。道歉——可能已經被問過了。但只是好奇。我的意思是,我知道當你提供更新的指導時,我的意思是在研討會前幾週,你當然考慮過第三季度、第四季度的拆分,這將被放大。我只是好奇分裂實際上是如何進行的?那是——我的意思是,這符合你的期望嗎?

  • And as we think about, I think Paul just referred to potentially fourth quarter being 2x the third quarter. It's very -- I'm just wondering, are there -- what are the things that kind of dictate that? I mean, are there large projects? Is it -- what are the things that could either be upside or potentially slip to '23?

    正如我們所想的那樣,我認為保羅只是提到第四季度可能是第三季度的兩倍。非常 - 我只是想知道,有沒有 - 是什麼東西決定了這一點?我的意思是,有大型項目嗎?是不是 - 有哪些事情可能會上升或可能滑到 23 年?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Paul, why don't you take that one?

    保羅,你為什麼不拿那個?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Well, the first thing is, we've been pretty transparent about scaling the electrolyzer plant in Rochester, and the volume is dramatically increasing every month. And so it's just by the nature of that scaling activity, a lot of that volume happens in Q4. The second thing is a lot of these new programs that we -- new products that we've been winning and developing and launching, a lot of them stem from, I'm going to call it, big lumpy sum -- lumpy contracts. And those were in -- certainly within our expectations in terms of timing when they would close and it's playing out as we thought and we're closing those now and -- or have closed them, and we're working on delivering them. So those are in line.

    是的。嗯,第一件事是,我們對擴大羅切斯特電解廠的規模非常透明,而且每個月的產量都在急劇增加。因此,這只是由於擴展活動的性質,很多交易量發生在第四季度。第二件事是我們的許多新項目——我們一直在贏得、開發和推出的新產品,其中很多源於,我將稱之為大筆資金——大筆合同。這些都在我們的預期之內——就它們關閉的時間而言,它正在按照我們的想法進行,我們現在正在關閉它們——或者已經關閉它們,我們正在努力實現它們。所以這些是一致的。

  • And then the third thing is just material handling. Every year, it tends to flip. Sometimes Q3 is bigger in terms of timing. And sometimes Q4 is bigger in terms of timing. And so these big pedestal customers, they kind of -- it just -- it varies with them. But we've actually been -- as we announced back in the symposium, we've launched and completed a number of new pedestal customer programs, which we knew would be kind of the Q4-ish time frame for those to close, things like the Ranger programs we've talked about, those are all underway as we speak. That's the first time we've done things for them at scale. It's exciting. And things like the Lido program that we won and other new pedestal customer, so those are in line. So I'd say, by and large, it's consistent with what we thought in context of the updated guidance we gave.

    然後第三件事就是材料處理。每年,它往往會翻轉。有時第三季度的時間安排更大。有時第四季度的時間安排更大。所以這些大客戶,他們有點 - 它只是 - 它因他們而異。但實際上我們已經——正如我們在研討會上宣布的那樣,我們已經啟動並完成了一些新的基座客戶計劃,我們知道這將是那些關閉的 Q4-ish 時間框架,比如我們談到的 Ranger 計劃,這些都在我們說話的時候進行中。這是我們第一次大規模地為他們做事。是興奮的。還有像我們贏得的麗都計劃和其他新的基座客戶,所以這些都是一致的。所以我想說,總的來說,它與我們在我們提供的更新指導背景下的想法一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from George Gianarikas of Canaccord.

    下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 George Gianarikas。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • So just first, when you talk about back leveraging plans to recycle capital, to build your hydrogen network. Are you assuming you'll be doing that all on your own? Or are you looking for more partners? Or do you need more partners to help finance that build?

    所以首先,當你談到利用計劃來回收資金,建立你的氫網絡時。你假設你會自己做這一切嗎?或者您正在尋找更多合作夥伴?或者您是否需要更多的合作夥伴來幫助資助該建設?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Go ahead, Sanjay.

    去吧,桑傑。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • George. So look, I mean, I think 2 things, right, on that. So obviously, we always explore and see what is the right structure a partnership can look like, right, whether it's a partnership with the likes of infrastructure fund or partnership with the likes is just strategic funds, that's always an option. But given where we are, there are 2 things that will happen, right? One is as these plants come online, we'll be able to demonstrate what is the cash flow from this plant is first thing, right? So there'll be a track record of a, let's say, for 12 months, number one.

    喬治。所以看,我的意思是,我認為有兩件事,對,關於那個。所以很明顯,我們總是探索並看看合夥企業的正確結構是什麼,對,無論是與基礎設施基金之類的合夥企業還是與戰略基金之類的合夥企業,這始終是一種選擇。但是考慮到我們所處的位置,有兩件事會發生,對吧?一個是當這些工廠上線時,我們將能夠首先證明該工廠的現金流是多少,對吧?所以會有一個記錄,比如說,12 個月,第一。

  • Number two, now with the production tax credit, you do have a view on a 10-year forward cash generation just without PTC as well, depending on what the split of that is between us versus the customer. That part is really getting refined here at this point in time. But can we do the back leveraging on these plans on our own? Answer is yes, we can. Is that the pathway go down? Frankly, we're having a lot of discussion at this point in time. It depends on what is the optimal solution for us. But this is no different, though, right, than what really happened in the solar and in the wind space when it first kind of got started, call it, about 10 years ago, right?

    第二,現在有了生產稅收抵免,您確實可以看到沒有 PTC 的 10 年遠期現金生成,這取決於我們與客戶之間的分配。在這個時間點上,這部分真的得到了完善。但是我們可以自己利用這些計劃進行支持嗎?答案是肯定的,我們可以。這條路走下去了嗎?坦率地說,我們目前正在進行很多討論。這取決於什麼是我們的最佳解決方案。但這與大約 10 年前在太陽能和風能領域第一次開始時真正發生的情況並沒有什麼不同,對吧?

  • So first, you have the DOE loan guarantee program for 3 mega solar project, which then led to the back leveraging of those projects. You basically had ITC in the solar space that began 30% of the capital stack ITC. We have production tax ready in the wind industry, which then became 50% to 60% of the capital stack in the wind industry. So there should be no change or no difference in terms of how the capital stack will unfold in the green hydrogen industry as well. But once we actually start to really generate cash from these plants and with the PTC now as a part of this Inflation Reduction Act, we absolutely believe that we will be able to back leverage, there'll probably be some sort of a tax equity at some point, fast forward several years out.

    所以首先,你有能源部為 3 個大型太陽能項目提供的貸款擔保計劃,這導致了這些項目的反向槓桿作用。你基本上在太陽能領域擁有 ITC,它開始了 30% 的資本堆棧 ITC。我們在風能行業準備好生產稅,然後成為風能行業資本堆棧的 50% 到 60%。因此,就綠色氫能行業的資本堆棧如何展開而言,應該沒有變化或沒有區別。但是,一旦我們真正開始從這些工廠真正產生現金,並且現在將 PTC 作為該通脹減少法案的一部分,我們絕對相信我們將能夠支持槓桿,可能會有某種稅收權益某一點,快進幾年了。

  • And we will be really able to not have to do this green hydrogen plant with 100% equity, balance sheet financing, but we should be able to do that out of the gate, probably it's 40% equity. There is a scenario where you can envision that eventually goes down to 20%. And that's what we mean when we say we should be able to get 4 to 5x multiple of available capital to really execute on the green hydrogen generation network that we're looking to build.

    我們真的可以不用擁有 100% 的股權、資產負債表融資來建造這個綠色氫工廠,但我們應該能夠一開始就做到這一點,可能是 40% 的股權。有一種情況,您可以設想最終下降到 20%。這就是我們所說的我們應該能夠獲得 4 到 5 倍的可用資金來真正執行我們正在尋求建立的綠色氫生成網絡的意思。

  • George Gianarikas - Analyst

    George Gianarikas - Analyst

  • And if I could just ask 1 follow-up. I'd love to get your thoughts on recent traditional energy activity in renewable natural gas. And I'm curious as to how you see that potentially extending more into hydrogen over time and how you see that potentially playing out?

    如果我能問1個後續。我很想听聽您對可再生天然氣中最近的傳統能源活動的看法。我很好奇你如何看待隨著時間的推移可能會更多地延伸到氫氣中,以及你如何看待這種潛在的發展?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • You want to give your view, Sanjay?

    你想發表你的看法嗎,桑傑?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • No, you can start as well. Yes, it's an interesting question.

    不,你也可以開始。是的,這是一個有趣的問題。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I think ultimately as renewable electricity comes to scale, I think the local carbon footprint of using green energy, coupled with electrolyzers, is the long-term solution. I think RNG is an interesting niche market, which supports the transition but it's not going to be ultimately the winner. And I would put in an analogous to blue hydrogen.

    我認為最終隨著可再生電力的規模化,我認為使用綠色能源以及電解槽的當地碳足跡是長期解決方案。我認為 RNG 是一個有趣的利基市場,它支持過渡,但最終不會成為贏家。我會加入一個類似於藍色氫的物質。

  • I was talking to one of the large funds in the Middle East on the sovereign funds. And I asked them, why are you talking to me when you could be generating blue hydrogen all day long? And their answer to me, once green hydrogen is shown to be competitive with blue hydrogen, no one's going to use blue hydrogen. And I think the same holds for RNG versus hydrogen.

    我正在與中東的大型基金之一談論主權基金。我問他們,當你可以整天產生藍色氫氣的時候,你為什麼還要跟我說話?他們對我的回答是,一旦綠氫被證明可以與藍氫競爭,就沒有人會使用藍氫了。我認為 RNG 與氫也是如此。

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • Absolutely, Andy, right. Again, just to add to what Andrew has said, George, I think it's really a question of scale. We believe that the green hydrogen is scale much, much bigger going forward, leveraging off of the renewable asset.

    絕對,安迪,對。再說一次,為了補充安德魯所說的話,喬治,我認為這真的是一個規模問題。我們相信,利用可再生資產,綠色氫的規模要大得多。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Not that again -- so I'm not against anything that helps accelerate the transition. And I think RNG helps accelerate the transition.

    是的。不是那樣——所以我不反對任何有助於加速過渡的事情。我認為 RNG 有助於加速過渡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Sam Burwell of Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sam Burwell。

  • George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

    George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

  • Wanted to dig in on kind of the gross margin trajectory a little bit. So I guess, first off, for 4Q and Paul already touched on it a lot like the equipment sales should be up a lot, maybe almost a double in 4Q. So that should probably drag the company-wide gross margin up. But I'm curious how high should it or can it go in 4Q, assuming like roughly 20% equipment gross margins? Are there any other material uplift you should expect, whether it's fuel or service or PPA?

    想深入了解毛利率軌跡。所以我想,首先,對於第 4 季度,保羅已經談到了很多,就像設備銷售應該增長很多,可能在第 4 季度幾乎翻了一番。因此,這可能會拖累整個公司的毛利率上升。但我很好奇它應該在第四季度達到多高,或者它可以在第四季度達到多高,假設大約 20% 的設備毛利率?您是否應該期待任何其他材料的提升,無論是燃料、服務還是 PPA?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • I will let Mr. Middleton take that one, Sam.

    我會讓米德爾頓先生拿走那個,山姆。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think -- so the short answer is you hit the nail on the head. It's a significant delta in equipment sales in the quarter, right? That's really -- I mean, the recurring revenue, think about it like a layer if you layer in comes over time. But in short instance like this one where there's a significant step function change in the volume and the sales volume largely driven by equipment. So that will certainly have a very significant positive impact.

    是的。我想——所以簡短的回答是你一針見血。這是本季度設備銷售的顯著增量,對吧?這真的是——我的意思是,經常性收入,如果你隨著時間的推移而分層,就把它想像成一個層次。但在這種情況下,數量和銷量在很大程度上受到設備驅動的顯著階躍函數變化。所以這肯定會產生非常顯著的積極影響。

  • There are other things like the scaling I mentioned a minute ago on electrolyzer. So if you think about volume out of that facility, driving up substantially in the quarter from previous quarters, that means substantial leverage on those investments that we weren't getting those run rates are real near. So those are very positive. We expect -- we're seeing big improvements. We see continued improvements in our service offering, which affects our service revenues and our PPA.

    還有其他事情,比如我在一分鐘前提到的電解槽上的縮放。因此,如果您考慮該設施的數量,在本季度比前幾個季度大幅增加,這意味著對那些我們沒有獲得這些運行率的投資的巨大槓桿作用非常接近。所以這些都是非常積極的。我們期待——我們看到了巨大的進步。我們看到我們的服務產品不斷改進,這會影響我們的服務收入和 PPA。

  • We have a number of programs we've launched this year, and you're just starting to see the benefits of those part terms. In some cases, some of the sites where we launched the upgrades, we're seeing 70% to 80% reduction in part cost. So those benefits are just starting to really manifest and play through our numbers. We think the service cost on a unit basis will be down in the fourth quarter, about 10% to 15% compared to where we were in Q1 as an example.

    我們今年推出了許多計劃,您才剛剛開始看到這些部分條款的好處。在某些情況下,我們啟動升級的一些站點,我們看到部分成本降低了 70% 到 80%。因此,這些好處才剛剛開始真正體現並通過我們的數字發揮作用。我們認為,以單位為基礎的服務成本將在第四季度下降,與第一季度相比下降約 10% 至 15%。

  • And then there's a bigger step function that almost as you saw by the chart, is forecasted to be cut almost in half in the course of next year as those programs continue to pay benefits and new units roll out with that better mix offering.

    然後還有一個更大的階梯函數,幾乎正如你在圖表中看到的那樣,隨著這些計劃繼續支付福利,並且新的單元推出了更好的組合產品,預計在明年的過程中將減少近一半。

  • So there's a whole host of things that are playing in our favor that we'll start to see some of those benefits certainly in Q4 and then you see it really starting to magnify into next year. There are headwinds. I mean, like fuel and, as Sanjay alluded to, natural gas prices and other things, but those positive events really help put more of a positive tailwind to that margin trend.

    因此,有很多事情對我們有利,我們肯定會在第四季度開始看到其中的一些好處,然後你會看到它真正開始放大到明年。有逆風。我的意思是,就像燃料一樣,正如桑傑所暗示的那樣,天然氣價格和其他東西,但這些積極事件確實有助於為利潤率趨勢帶來更多積極的推動力。

  • George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

    George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. That's certainly helpful. And then maybe shifting to look at 2023. And recall from the update that you guys gave on the guidance back in October, you said that some projects were pushed out to next year. So is it right to think that there might be less of a quarter-on-quarter decline in revenues in 1Q versus 4Q than like typically, you see because of seasonality?

    好的。這當然很有幫助。然後可能會轉移到 2023 年。回想一下你們在 10 月份給出的指導更新,你們說有些項目被推遲到明年。那麼,由於季節性原因,認為第一季度與第四季度的收入環比下降可能比通常情況下要少,這是正確的嗎?

  • I'm just trying to get a sense of what we should expect for the trajectory of sales on the equipment side through 2023? And then also, how should we think about the margin trajectory for that segment in 2023? Is there any fixed cost absorption that should really improve through the year? Or should it be fairly consistent around that 20% mark in all 4 quarters?

    我只是想了解到 2023 年設備方面的銷售軌跡我們應該期待什麼?然後,我們應該如何考慮 2023 年該細分市場的利潤率軌跡?是否有任何固定成本吸收應該在一年中真正得到改善?還是應該在所有 4 個季度都保持在 20% 左右?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Paul, that sounds like question for you.

    保羅,這聽起來像是你的問題。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I would say, in general, I would expect still 1/3 or 2/3 kind of phenomenon in our sales next year for the -- in terms of the first half, second half. We have a number of -- the material handling dynamic still is still the same, where there's still a heavy push for new facilities and even renewals to happen starting kind of the June-ish time frame and leading into the busy period. So that dynamic hasn't changed.

    是的。我想說,總的來說,我預計明年我們的銷售額仍有 1/3 或 2/3 的現象——就上半年、下半年而言。我們有許多 - 材料處理動態仍然相同,仍然大力推動新設施甚至更新,從 6 月左右的時間框架開始並進入繁忙時期。所以這種動態沒有改變。

  • Yes, some programs may slide and that certainly helps Q1. Overall volumes are up. So that helps. So you'll certainly see year-over-year growth from Q1 of next year to Q1 of '22. But I don't know that -- I guess the best math I would use is just using a similar split, if you will, of this year as a proxy for how the quarters may play on a percentage basis into next year. I think -- having said that, Q4 is going to be a big quarter for us. I mean it's just the timing of the way the programs have flown and how this particular year has flown with material handling timing, and that certainly makes Q4 big.

    是的,有些程序可能會下滑,這肯定有助於 Q1。總成交量上升。所以這有幫助。因此,您肯定會看到從明年第一季度到 22 年第一季度的同比增長。但我不知道——我想我會使用的最好的數學是使用今年的類似拆分,如果你願意的話,作為明年季度如何以百分比為基礎的代理。我認為 - 話雖如此,第四季度對我們來說將是一個重要的季度。我的意思是,這只是程序運行方式的時間安排,以及這一特定年份如何隨著材料處理時間的推移而運行,這肯定會使第四季度大增。

  • So it's nothing surprising to us. And as we move into next year and work towards hopefully over delivering, we certainly -- that will compound second half activities with all the things that we're chasing to try and, as I said, over deliver on the volume. So for all those reasons, I expect that to -- it will certainly be lower most likely than Q4, but substantially higher than last year's Q1 and compounding thereafter.

    所以這對我們來說並不奇怪。隨著我們進入明年並努力實現超額交付,我們當然 - 這將使下半年的活動與我們正在努力嘗試的所有事情相結合,正如我所說,超額交付。因此,出於所有這些原因,我預計它肯定會低於第四季度,但大大高於去年第一季度和之後的複利。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sam, I'm trying to ship everything I can this year.

    是的。山姆,今年我會盡力運送所有東西。

  • George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

    George H. Burwell - Equity Analyst

  • Sorry, just quickly, what about the margin trajectory in equipment? Should that be fairly consistent? Or are there a lot of fixed costs that get absorbed just as you ramp up electrolyzers and improve through the year?

    抱歉,快點,設備中的保證金軌跡如何?這應該是相當一致的嗎?或者,當您增加電解槽並在一年中有所改進時,是否有很多固定成本被吸收?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think we gave 10% as a holistic number for next year. And because it goes consistent with volume, you'll see much stronger margin profile in the second half, both from fuel activities and from the equipment sales. But again, I expect Q1 to be a better margin profile than Q1 of this year, and I expect it to be -- every quarter to be better next year given the build of equipment activities and moving on. So I think directionally that's probably -- that's certainly how it will play.

    是的。我認為我們將 10% 作為明年的整體數字。而且由於它與銷量一致,你會在下半年看到更加強勁的利潤率,無論是來自燃料活動還是設備銷售。但同樣,我預計第一季度的利潤率將比今年第一季度更好,而且我預計明年每個季度都會更好,因為設備活動的建立和繼續前進。所以我認為方向性可能是——這肯定是它的發揮方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Greg Lewis of BTIG.

    下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Greg Lewis。

  • Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

    Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

  • Just one question for me. Sanjay, I guess, congrats on bringing on (inaudible) met those guys at the symposium, super nice guys and they're super pumped about the use on Plug solutions. One of the questions I had, and I know you've talked to in the past is about the ability to kind of go in the mid-end of the market. I guess I'm wondering, any update there on the penetration on the mid and small ends of the market? And really, as you look ahead to 2023, how are you thinking about that opportunity?

    對我來說只有一個問題。我猜,Sanjay 恭喜你在研討會上遇到了那些人(聽不清),超級好人,他們對 Plug 解決方案的使用非常興奮。我有一個問題,我知道你過去曾與之交談過,是關於進入市場中端的能力。我想我想知道,關於中小型市場滲透率的任何更新?真的,當您展望 2023 年時,您如何看待這個機會?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Greg, this is Andy. I spent a lot of time with Jose, who runs that business. I think probably the interesting mix in the fourth quarter is customers, which are smaller, probably represent 35% of the shipments this quarter. I think that's a dramatic change. And some of that will continue to improve. And I think the -- I've made reference to, can you share a bit of the production tax credit to make the value proposition more attractive and let us sell more equipment? And I think you'll see more and more of that.

    格雷格,這是安迪。我花了很多時間和經營該公司的何塞在一起。我認為第四季度有趣的組合可能是客戶,這些客戶規模較小,可能佔本季度出貨量的 35%。我認為這是一個戲劇性的變化。其中一些將繼續改善。而且我認為 - 我已經提到過,您能否分享一點生產稅收抵免,以使價值主張更具吸引力並讓我們銷售更多設備?我想你會看到越來越多的。

  • So the answer is, we're doing much better in smaller applications. And I can tell you -- so we are also looking at and there's work going on for much smaller hydrogen infrastructure. And I can tell you that I have it -- we do have solutions that we've developed for Europe and that we're looking to bring them to the United States. It's one of the reasons Jose has been able to be successful to start bringing along more pedestal customers in Europe.

    所以答案是,我們在較小的應用程序中做得更好。我可以告訴你——所以我們也在研究小型氫基礎設施的工作。我可以告訴你,我擁有它——我們確實有為歐洲開發的解決方案,我們希望將它們帶到美國。這也是 Jose 能夠成功地開始在歐洲吸引更多客戶的原因之一。

  • Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

    Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

  • And then I guess I'll just follow up on that, Andy, thanks. Is there any way to think about the margins on the smaller end versus the larger? I mean, I would imagine they have to be at least a little better. Is that kind of a fair way to think about that?

    然後我想我會繼續跟進,安迪,謝謝。有什麼方法可以考慮較小端與較大端的邊距?我的意思是,我想他們必須至少好一點。這是一種公平的思考方式嗎?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So they're listening, Greg.

    所以他們在聽,格雷格。

  • Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

    Gregory Robert Lewis - MD and Energy Transition, Maritime & Next Generation Opportunity Analyst

  • Well, they need to buy more then.

    那麼,他們需要購買更多。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I would just say -- I'll let Paul comment if he has any changes. Yes, obviously, if you buy more, the price is lower than if you buy less across the board for all 3 elements, hydrogen, fuel and service. And I would think we kind of look like any of the companies you follow that I've had that experience.

    是的。我只想說——如果 Paul 有任何變化,我會讓他發表評論。是的,很明顯,如果你買得更多,價格會低於你在所有 3 個元素(氫、燃料和服務)方面全面購買的價格。而且我認為我們有點像你關注的任何一家我有過這種經歷的公司。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Ameet Thakkar of BMO Capital. (Operator Instructions) The next question is coming from Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers.

    下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Ameet Thakkar。 (操作員說明)下一個問題來自 Tuohy Brothers 的 Craig Shere。

  • Craig Shere

    Craig Shere

  • So first, I just want to make sure I understand the rough next year revenue trajectory we're talking about. It sounds like maybe in the ballpark of $450 million to $500 million in the first half with every quarter improving sequentially from first to second to third. And then as usual, third and fourth quarter being kind of a toss-up as to what's the top for the year.

    所以首先,我只是想確保我了解我們正在談論的粗略的明年收入軌跡。聽起來上半年可能在 4.5 億美元到 5 億美元之間,每個季度從第一到第二到第三依次提高。然後像往常一樣,第三季度和第四季度對於今年的最高水平是一種折騰。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Paul, do you want to take that?

    保羅,你願意接受嗎?

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, I think that's right. I think I -- because we're chasing programs, as I said, our goal is to over deliver. I mean we're focused on beating our numbers every year. And certainly, this year will be the strong press to push that. So we expect a lot of programs to come in, in the second half, as they always do. And between the material handling dynamics and landing those big programs and working through the timing of (inaudible) volume, we'll probably make Q3 or Q4 a little bit of toss up, but most likely, Q4 will be a little bit heavier.

    是的,我認為這是正確的。我想我 - 因為我們正在追逐計劃,正如我所說,我們的目標是過度交付。我的意思是我們每年都專注於擊敗我們的數字。當然,今年將是推動這一目標的強大媒體。因此,我們預計下半年會有很多項目加入,就像往常一樣。在材料處理動態和登陸那些大型程序以及通過(聽不清)音量的時間安排之間,我們可能會讓 Q3 或 Q4 有點折騰,但最有可能的是,Q4 會更重一些。

  • Craig Shere

    Craig Shere

  • Got it. Okay. And then one for Sanjay. I think, Sanjay, that coming out of the symposium, there's a little confusion. I mean there's been a little horse trading to optimize some of your hydrogen plants and get the most scalability, the best returns. And it sounds like you're still targeting like a nameplate commissioning capacity at year-end about the same, but it's possible that the production that was previously anticipated actual H2 production through 2023 might be a little less than was thought a couple of quarters ago? And that may restrain the ability to raise guidance, but margins beyond '23 should then proportionately benefit with the combination of the stale fuel and the IRA PTC?

    知道了。好的。然後是桑傑的一個。我認為,桑傑,從專題討論會出來,有點混亂。我的意思是,為了優化您的一些氫氣工廠並獲得最大的可擴展性和最佳回報,我們進行了一些交易。聽起來您的目標仍然是年底時的銘牌調試能力,但之前預計到 2023 年實際 H2 產量的產量可能比幾個季度前的預期要少一些?這可能會限制提高指導的能力,但 23 年之後的利潤率應該會隨著陳舊燃料和 IRA PTC 的結合而成比例地受益?

  • Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

    Sanjay K. Shrestha - Executive VP, GM of Energy Solutions & Chief Strategy Officer

  • So let me maybe take a step back, right? So Craig, as you know, when we -- I think you know this pretty well, right? When we talk about commissioning the plant to full production, there's about a 3- to 4-month lag, right? And it depends a bit on whether it's essentially our electrolyzer plus liquefier or it's just the feed gas and the liquefaction technology, right? And if it's just a feed available sort of like this Olin JV in Louisiana and what we do in Tennessee, the commissioning of that actually could even be faster than that.

    所以讓我也許退後一步,對吧?所以克雷格,你知道,當我們——我想你很清楚這一點,對吧?當我們談論將工廠投入全面生產時,大約有 3 到 4 個月的延遲,對吧?這有點取決於它本質上是我們的電解槽加液化器,還是只是原料氣和液化技術,對吧?如果它只是像路易斯安那州的 Olin JV 和我們在田納西州所做的那樣的可用提要,那麼它的調試實際上甚至可能比這更快。

  • So I don't know if I would say that we're necessarily tweaking or adjusting the view. We've always said that we wanted to be at 200 tons of commissioning by the end of 2023. And look, and you know that we're looking at 70 tons of commissioning this year, but we've gone through a lot of detail on why we are going to be at that 45 to 50 tons of commissioning by the end of 2022. But from -- by the end of 2023, our goal always was to get to that 200 tons of commissioning and that was a mix of project in New York, project in Texas, right, expansion in Georgia, expansion in Tennessee and ongoing work that we're doing in Louisiana.

    所以我不知道我是否會說我們必須調整或調整視圖。我們一直說我們希望到 2023 年底達到 200 噸的調試量。看,你知道我們今年正在考慮 70 噸的調試量,但我們已經經歷了很多細節關於為什麼到 2022 年底我們要達到 45 到 50 噸的調試。但是從 - 到 2023 年底,我們的目標始終是達到 200 噸的調試,這是一個混合項目在紐約,在得克薩斯州的項目,對,在喬治亞州的擴張,在田納西州的擴張以及我們在路易斯安那州正在進行的工作。

  • So -- and from a cadence standpoint, right, the way you should think about is -- as you go into Q2 of next year, you should start to see the contribution of that low-cost hydrogen from Georgia. And again, in Q2, you should also start to see the contribution of that low-cost hydrogen coming from Louisiana, some gases hydrogen coming out of Tennessee. Then as you go into the Q4 of 2023, you should start to see some contribution coming from New York and Texas. Some incremental contribution, again, coming from Georgia because we have told you that we're really looking to get that plant to be 30 tons by the end of the year. There was an existing infrastructure that will be actually a faster moving.

    所以——從節奏的角度來看,對,你應該考慮的方式是——當你進入明年第二季度時,你應該開始看到來自佐治亞州的低成本氫氣的貢獻。同樣,在第二季度,您還應該開始看到來自路易斯安那州的低成本氫氣的貢獻,其中一些氣體氫氣來自田納西州。然後當你進入 2023 年第四季度時,你應該開始看到來自紐約和德克薩斯州的一些貢獻。再次,來自佐治亞州的一些增量貢獻,因為我們已經告訴過您,我們真的希望在今年年底之前使該工廠達到 30 噸。有一個現有的基礎設施實際上會更快地移動。

  • And by the way, Craig, we also have some of the projects in the hopper that we're working because it's a development business, and we want to make sure that we're thinking about optimizing and balancing if one project is a month or 2 behind then we have something else that we can actually backfill that with, if you would. So that's how I would think about it in terms of the cadence of that and how things will play out in 2023.

    順便說一句,克雷格,我們也有一些項目在我們正在工作的漏斗中,因為它是一項開發業務,如果一個項目是一個月或一個月,我們希望確保我們正在考慮優化和平衡2 之後,如果您願意,我們實際上可以用其他東西回填它。所以這就是我會如何考慮它的節奏以及事情在 2023 年將如何發展的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Greg Wasikowski of Webber Research.

    下一個問題來自 Webber Research 的 Greg Wasikowski。

  • Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

    Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

  • A couple of quick ones on the pedestal customers. And apologies, I've also been hopping back and forth. So -- already asked. So I noticed...

    基座客戶上有幾個快速的。道歉,我也一直在來回跳躍。所以——已經問過了。於是我注意到...

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • We were not that fascinating that you spent a whole hour with us.

    你和我們一起度過了整整一個小時,我們並沒有那麼迷人。

  • Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

    Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

  • I wish you were the only one I covered. On the pedestal customers, just noticed since the symposium, Lidl is now officially named Pedestal. So just curious, any color on what has developed since a symposium to now if it's just as simple as executing an agreement or if there's anything interesting for us to know there?

    我希望你是我報導的唯一一個。在基座客戶上,自從座談會後才注意到,Lidl 現在正式命名為 Pedestal。所以只是好奇,如果它只是像執行協議一樣簡單,或者有什麼有趣的事情讓我們知道,那麼從研討會到現在的發展有什麼顏色嗎?

  • And then also if you could comment on just the relative size of where that stands versus the rest of the stationary power customer -- or sorry, the pedestal customers without giving numbers, but kind of where, relatively speaking, it may rank amongst the others, that would be great.

    然後,如果您可以僅評論其與其他固定電力客戶的相對規模 - 或者對不起,沒有給出數字的基座客戶,但相對而言,它可能在其他地方排名, 那很好啊。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So Greg, yes, we signed contracts after symposium. So that was pretty exciting. So it happened about 2 days after the symposium. And Lidl has about 150 distribution centers in Europe. So you can kind of start thinking about them as the size of Home Depot.

    所以格雷格,是的,我們在座談會後簽訂了合同。所以這非常令人興奮。所以它發生在研討會後大約 2 天。 Lidl 在歐洲擁有大約 150 個配送中心。因此,您可以開始將它們視為家得寶的規模。

  • Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

    Gregory Adrian Wasikowski - Associate Partner

  • Okay. Great. Very helpful. And then one more, just on pedestal customers, one that we haven't heard about as much over the last 1.5 year since the original announcement was GM. So just wondering if there's any broad-based updates there. Any appetite for expansion or different types of applications, whether it be stationary power or et cetera? Any update would be great.

    好的。偉大的。非常有幫助。然後還有一個,只是在基座客戶上,自從最初宣布通用汽車以來,我們在過去 1.5 年裡沒有聽說過這麼多。所以只是想知道那裡是否有任何基礎廣泛的更新。是否對擴展或不同類型的應用有興趣,無論是固定電源還是等等?任何更新都會很棒。

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • So we are doing deployments with GM this quarter. We've been continuing to work with GM. Certainly not as many opportunities there as Home Depot and Walmart and Amazon were Lidl. But it's -- I'm pretty pleased with the progress.

    因此,本季度我們正在與通用汽車進行部署。我們一直在繼續與通用汽車合作。當然,那裡的機會不像家得寶、沃爾瑪和亞馬遜那樣多的是 Lidl。但它 - 我對進展感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Ameet Thakkar of BMO Capital.

    下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Ameet Thakkar。

  • Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

    Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

  • Let's try this again. Sorry about that. I'll make it quick because I know it's been a little evening. But just -- it's more of a housekeeping question, but I noticed in the investor letter, you guys reaffirmed your kind of 2026 and 2030 revenue and margin targets and did the same for 2022 revenues. Should we still be thinking about the 10% gross margins for 2023 (inaudible) explicitly?

    讓我們再試一次。對於那個很抱歉。我會盡快處理,因為我知道這是一個小小的晚上。但只是 - 這更像是一個家務問題,但我在投資者信中註意到,你們重申了你們 2026 年和 2030 年的收入和利潤率目標,並為 2022 年的收入做了同樣的事情。我們是否仍應明確考慮 2023 年 10% 的毛利率(聽不清)?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, Paul, I'll let you answer. But I think we're standing the chart that you presented on margins and performance for '23, 2030, '26, there's no changes to that.

    是的,保羅,我會讓你回答。但我認為我們站在您提供的關於 23 年、2030 年和 26 年的利潤率和業績的圖表上,沒有任何變化。

  • Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

    Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

  • Great. And then -- go ahead, Paul.

    偉大的。然後——繼續,保羅。

  • Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

    Paul B. Middleton - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, just saying, yes, I agree, it's a 10% so target next year. And yes.

    不,只是說,是的,我同意,明年的目標是 10%。是的。

  • Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

    Ameet Ishwar Thakkar - Energy Transition & Infrastructure Analyst

  • And just real quick. And then thinking about like a lot of the electrolyzer contracts your historical equipment you're selling in Europe. Is there going to be like a service revenue part of that as well that's going to kind of grow as you deploy more capacity out there?

    而且真的很快。然後想想很多電解槽與你在歐洲銷售的歷史設備簽訂合同。隨著您在那裡部署更多容量,是否會有服務收入部分也會增長?

  • Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

    Andrew J. Marsh - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. That's actually a good question. And what we -- so the answer is yes. What we really haven't talked a lot about is the opportunity for service with electrolyzers, which when I review with the team, maybe much more attractive than material handle. So we are -- a lot of the work we're doing in Europe, as you know, will be associated with electrolyzers and the service business, when we look at it, we think could be very, very attractive.

    是的。這實際上是一個好問題。而我們——所以答案是肯定的。我們真正沒有談論太多的是使用電解槽服務的機會,當我與團隊一起回顧時,這可能比材料處理更有吸引力。所以我們 - 正如你所知,我們在歐洲所做的很多工作都與電解槽和服務業務相關,當我們看到它時,我們認為它可能非常非常有吸引力。

  • All right. Well, thanks, everyone. I appreciate everyone who is on the call today. Looking forward in January to provide you the annual update which will happen probably at the end of January, we'll schedule. And thank you again. Bye now.

    好的。嗯,謝謝大家。我感謝今天參加電話會議的每一個人。期待在 1 月份為您提供可能會在 1 月底發生的年度更新,我們會安排時間。並再次感謝您。回頭見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

    女士們,先生們,今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網絡廣播,然後享受剩下的一天。