普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Jeannie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup, Inc. Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝你的支持。我叫珍妮，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup, Inc. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Zeumer. You may begin.

我現在想把會議交給 Jim Zeumer。你可以開始了。

Great. Thanks, Jean. Good morning. Let me welcome everyone to today's call. We look forward to discussing PulteGroup's outstanding Q1 operating and financial results, the period ended March 31, 2024. I'm joined on the call today by Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O'Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jim Ossowski, Senior VP, Finance. A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We'll post an audio replay of this call later today.

偉大的。謝謝，讓。早安.讓我歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待討論 PulteGroup 截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度出色的營運和財務業績。 Bob O'Shaughnessy，執行副總裁兼財務長； Jim Ossowski，財務資深副總裁。我們的收益發布副本和今天早上的簡報幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們將在今天稍後發布本次通話的音訊重播。

I want to alert everyone that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

我想提醒大家，今天的演示包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天發表的評論所暗示的結果有重大差異。在今天的收益發布和隨附的簡報幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來業績的最重要的風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. As you read in this morning's press release, PulteGroup reported record first quarter results across many of our key financial metrics. From top line revenues of $3.8 billion, gross margins of 29.6%, to bottom line earnings of $3.10 per share, it was an exceptional quarter. These strong first quarter results helped to drive a return on equity of 27.3% for the trailing 12-month period. Our strong first quarter results reflect long-term strategic planning and a disciplined capital allocation process that have underpinned PulteGroup's success for more than a decade.

謝謝，吉姆，早安。正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中讀到的那樣，PulteGroup 報告了我們許多關鍵財務指標創紀錄的第一季業績。從 38 億美元的營收、29.6% 的毛利率到每股 3.10 美元的淨利潤，這是一個非凡的季度。第一季的強勁業績推動過去 12 個月的股本回報率達到 27.3%。我們強勁的第一季業績反映了長期策略規劃和嚴格的資本配置流程，這些流程支撐了 PulteGroup 十多年來的成功。

I would suggest that another driver of our record Q1 results are decisions we made in the fourth quarter of last year, decisions that I think are emblematic of the balanced approach we take to running our business and to delivering high returns.

我認為，我們創紀錄的第一季業績的另一個驅動因素是我們在去年第四季做出的決定，我認為這些決定象徵著我們在經營業務和提供高回報方面採取的平衡方法。

On our last earnings call, we talked about decisions we made in the fourth quarter of last year to not lower our prices in a chase for volume. As you will recall, demand in the fourth quarter of 2023 had started slowly but improved as interest rates began to moderate. And we made the decision to push incentives aggressively as the quarter progressed, we likely could have delivered higher closing volumes in '23. With demand improving in the fourth quarter, we elected to hold our pricing and have had more inventory available for the 2024 spring selling season. The result of this decision is that we were in a position to sell and close more homes in the first quarter of 2024 and at higher margins. That's what you see in our Q1 results.

在上次財報電話會議上，我們談到了去年第四季所做的決定，也就是不為了追求銷售量而降低價格。您可能還記得，2023 年第四季的需求開始緩慢，但隨著利率開始放緩而改善。隨著本季的進展，我們決定積極推動激勵措施，我們可能會在 23 年實現更高的成交量。隨著第四季度需求的改善，我們選擇維持定價不變，並為 2024 年春季銷售季準備了更多庫存。這項決定的結果是，我們能夠在 2024 年第一季以更高的利潤出售和關閉更多房屋。這就是您在我們第一季的結果中看到的。

Closings and gross margins above our guide as demand dynamics allowed us to sell more homes with better net pricing. When buyer demand is rising, we're often asked how many more homes we can sell. Given the value we place on entitled lots and our focus on driving high returns, more volume is not the only answer as we work to balance pace and price to drive high returns. Within our operating model, stronger demand provides choices. We can sell more houses or we can raise prices, or as was the case in the first quarter, we can do both.

由於需求動態使我們能夠以更好的淨定價出售更多房屋，因此成交量和毛利率高於我們的指引。當買家需求上升時，我們經常被問到我們還能出售多少房屋。考慮到我們對授權地塊的重視以及我們對推動高回報的關注，增加產量並不是唯一的答案，因為我們努力平衡節奏和價格以推動高回報。在我們的營運模式中，更強勁的需求提供了選擇。我們可以出售更多的房子，或者我們可以提高價格，或者就像第一季的情況一樣，我們可以兩者兼而有之。

What we experienced in the first quarter is that areas of strong demand last year, such as the Southeast, Florida and Texas, continued to perform well into 2024. Even more positive is that areas that had some struggles in 2023, notably, Arizona, California and Nevada, were much improved in 2024. Consistent with the favorable conditions in the first quarter, almost all our markets displayed pricing dynamics that were stable or improving, which allowed us to raise net pricing in more than half of our communities.

我們在第一季的經驗是，去年需求強勁的地區，如東南部、佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州，在2024 年繼續表現良好。是亞利桑那州、加利福尼亞州和內華達州的價格在2024 年有了很大改善。的淨定價。

As you've heard us say many times, our pricing decisions are made with the goal of delivering high returns and the best overall business outcomes. Depending upon the community and the buyers' wants and needs, we may have raised base prices or lowered incentives. The result being that net pricing in the quarter across many of our markets was up between 1% and 5%.

正如您多次聽到我們所說，我們的定價決策是為了提供高回報和最佳的整體業務成果。根據社區和買家的需求，我們可能會提高基本價格或降低激勵措施。結果是，本季我們許多市場的淨定價上漲了 1% 到 5%。

The impact of these actions on our business performance is powerful. As Bob will discuss, we are increasing guidance for both full year closings and gross margins. Against generally favorable demand conditions, the supply of available housing remains tight. We have the long-term structural issue resulting from a decade of underbuilding that has the country's short approximately 4 million housing units. At the same time, the available inventory of existing homes for sale continues to be low as homeowners remain locked into their low mortgage rates. Life happens, so we are seeing some additional existing homes come to market, but the numbers remain well below historic rates.

這些行動對我們的業務績效產生了巨大的影響。正如鮑勃將討論的那樣，我們正在增加對全年結帳和毛利率的指導。儘管需求狀況大致良好，但可用住房供應仍然緊張。我們面臨長期的結構性問題，這是由於十年來建設不足造成的，該國大約缺少 400 萬套住房。同時，由於房主仍受制於較低的抵押貸款利率，現有待售房屋的可用庫存仍然較低。生活不斷發生，因此我們看到一些額外的現房進入市場，但數量仍遠低於歷史水準。

As a homebuilder, this is a great operating environment as we are supplying a product that a lot of people need and want. I appreciate, however, that our country's housing shortage can create hardships for today's consumers as the lack of supply keeps housing prices high. In fact, some of our recent buyers said that they made the decision to buy now because they couldn't wait any longer for rates to roll back.

作為住宅建築商，這是一個很好的營運環境，因為我們正在提供許多人需要和想要的產品。然而，我意識到，我國的住房短缺可能會給當今的消費者帶來困難，因為供應不足導致房價居高不下。事實上，我們最近的一些買家表示，他們之所以決定現在購買，是因為他們不能再等待利率回落。

In a market where home prices are high and because of limited inventory, they will likely continue moving higher. Our company's ability to offer targeted incentives, particularly mortgage rate buydowns, is a powerful tool that can help bridge the affordability gap. For example, in the first quarter, approximately 25% of our homebuyers used our national rate program. In a world where the consensus is that interest rates will be higher for longer, our interest rate incentives likely become an even greater competitive advantage, especially relative to the existing home seller.

在房價高企且庫存有限的市場中，房價可能會繼續走高。我們公司提供有針對性的激勵措施（特別是抵押貸款利率下調）的能力是一個強大的工具，可以幫助縮小負擔能力差距。例如，在第一季度，大約 25% 的購屋者使用了我們的國家費率計劃。在一個普遍認為利率將在更長時間內保持較高水平的世界中，我們的利率激勵措施可能會成為更大的競爭優勢，特別是相對於現有房屋賣家而言。

Higher interest rates create additional challenges for today's homebuyers, but we appreciate that rates are moving higher because of a resilient economy and a strong job market. Given these conditions, we are optimistic about 2024 and PulteGroup's ability to continue delivering strong financial results.

較高的利率給當今的購屋者帶來了額外的挑戰，但我們意識到，由於經濟有彈性和就業市場強勁，利率正在走高。鑑於這些條件，我們對 2024 年以及 PulteGroup 繼續交付強勁財務業績的能力持樂觀態度。

Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a review of our first quarter results. Bob?

現在讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，以審查我們第一季的業績。鮑伯？

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. As Ryan noted, the company delivered exceptional operating and financial results in the quarter, which have us well positioned to realize outstanding financial performance throughout 2024. In the first quarter, we reported home sale revenues of $3.8 billion, which represents an increase of 10% over the prior year's first quarter.

謝謝瑞安，早安。正如Ryan 指出的那樣，該公司在本季度取得了出色的營運和財務業績，這使我們能夠在2024 年全年實現出色的財務業績。了10%與去年第一季相比。

Higher revenues in the period were driven by an 11% increase in closing to 7,095 homes, partially offset by a 1% decrease in average sales prices to $538,000. The lower closing price compared with the first quarter of last year reflects a shift in the geographic mix of homes closed as we realized relatively higher closings from our Southeast and Florida markets, with more modest increases in our higher-priced Western markets.

同期收入增加的原因是房屋數量增加了 11%，達到 7,095 套，但部分被平均銷售價格下降 1% 至 538,000 美元所抵消。與去年第一季相比，收盤價較低，反映了成交房屋地理結構的變化，因為我們意識到東南部和佛羅裡達市場的成交量相對較高，而價格較高的西方市場的成交量增長更為溫和。

Closings in the quarter came in above our guide as we had available spec inventory to meet the strong buyer demand we experienced in the period. As Ryan highlighted, by choosing not to chase volume in last year's fourth quarter, we had additional inventory in Q1 that we were able to sell and close with better margins due to the improving buyer demand activity in the quarter. Our spec production is predominantly within our first-time buyer communities. So on a year-over-year basis, we realized increased closings from first-time buyers.

本季的成交量高於我們的指導值，因為我們擁有可用的規格庫存，可以滿足我們在此期間經歷的強勁買家需求。正如Ryan 所強調的那樣，透過選擇不追逐去年第四季的銷量，我們在第一季度擁有了額外的庫存，由於該季度買家需求活動的改善，我們能夠以更好的利潤出售和關閉這些庫存。我們的規格生產主要是在我們的首次購買者社群內進行。因此，與去年同期相比，我們發現首次購屋者的成交量有所增加。

In the quarter, our closing mix included 41% first time, 36% move-up, and 23% active adult. In the first quarter of last year, the mix of closings consisted of 38% first time, 36% move-up, and 26% active adult. Reflecting the favorable demand conditions we experienced in the first quarter, net new orders increased 14% over last year to 8,379 homes. In the quarter, we realized a year-over-year increase in gross orders and a reduction in cancellation rates. Cancellations as a percentage of starting backlog fell to 10.1%, down from 12.7% in the first quarter last year.

在本季度，我們的最終組合包括 41% 的首次、36% 的升級和 23% 的活躍成人。去年第一季度，成交量中，首次成交比例為 38%，升級成交比例為 36%，成人成交比例為 26%。淨新訂單比去年增長 14%，達到 8,379 套，反映出我們在第一季經歷的有利需求狀況。本季度，我們實現了總訂單年增長和取消率下降。取消訂單佔初始積壓訂單的百分比從去年第一季的 12.7% 降至 10.1%。

Average community count for our first quarter was 931, which is an increase of 6% over the prior year and in line with our guidance for year-over-year community count growth of 3% to 5%. The resulting absorption pace of approximately 3 homes per month for the quarter was above our historic average for the period, excluding the pandemic impacted years of '21 and '22.

第一季的平均社區數量為 931 個，比上年增長 6%，符合我們對社區數量同比增長 3% 至 5% 的指導。本季每月約 3 套房屋的吸收速度高於我們同期的歷史平均值（不包括 21 世紀和 22 年受疫情影響的年份）。

I would also like to highlight that orders in the quarter were higher across all buyer groups, which is another sign of the overall strength of the market. More specifically, net new orders among first-time buyers increased 8%, move-up increased 22%, and active adult increased 12%. Consistent with earlier comments, the large increase in orders among move-up buyers was influenced by improving market conditions in the West where our business mix is much more heavily weighted towards move-up.

我還想強調的是，本季所有買家群體的訂單量均有所增加，這是市場整體實力的另一個跡象。更具體地說，首次購屋者的淨新訂單增加了 8%，升級增加了 22%，活躍成人增加了 12%。與先前的評論一致，升級買家的訂單大幅增加是受到西方市場狀況改善的影響，在西方，我們的業務組合更加重視升級。

Given this strong start to our spring selling season, our quarter-end backlog increased to 13,430 homes with a value of $8.2 billion. We started approximately 7,500 homes in the quarter and ended the period with a total of 17,250 homes under construction. Our production pipeline includes approximately 7,000 or 41% spec homes, of which 1,337 are completed. We are operating just above our target of 1 finished spec per community, but believe carrying a few more finished specs is the right strategy given buyers' preferences and the fact that we are still in the more active spring selling season.

鑑於春季銷售季的強勁開局，季度末積壓房屋數量增加至 13,430 套，價值 82 億美元。本季我們開工了約 7,500 套房屋，截至本季末，興建中房屋總數為 17,250 套。我們的生產管道包括約 7,000 套或 41% 規格的住宅，其中 1,337 套已完工。我們的營運略高於每個社區 1 個成品規格的目標，但考慮到買家的偏好以及我們仍處於更活躍的春季銷售季節的事實，我們相信攜帶更多成品規格是正確的策略。

Given the units we have under construction and their stage of production, we expect to close between 7,800 and 8,200 homes in the second quarter. With a strong start to the year in both quarters and closings, we are raising our guide for full year closings to approximately 31,000 homes. This would represent an 8% increase over 2023, which is at the higher end of our long-term goal of growing our closing volume between 5% and 10% annually.

考慮到我們正在建造的單位及其生產階段，我們預計第二季將關閉 7,800 至 8,200 套房屋。由於今年兩季和成交量均表現強勁，我們將全年成交量指南上調至約 31,000 套房屋。這將比 2023 年增長 8%，這是我們將成交量每年增長 5% 至 10% 的長期目標的上限。

Closings in the first quarter had an average sales price of $538,000, which was slightly below our guide for pricing of $540,000 to $550,000. Relative to our guide, pricing in the quarter was influenced by the geographic mix of closing, along with a higher volume of spec homes closed in the period. As we move through the remainder of the year, we expect the mix of homes closed in each quarter will result in ASPs consistent with our prior guide of $540,000 to $550,000.

第一季成交的平均售價為 538,000 美元，略低於我們 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元的指導價。相對於我們的指南，本季的定價受到成交地域組合以及同期成交量較高的規格房屋的影響。隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，我們預計每個季度關閉的房屋組合將導致平均售價與我們之前的 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元指導一致。

For the first quarter, we reported a gross margin of 29.6%, which is an increase of 50 basis points over the first quarter of '23 and a sequential gain of 70 basis points from the fourth quarter of '23. At 29.6%, our first quarter gross margin was also notably higher than our guide. Beyond Ryan's comments that we were achieving high returns by actively managing both pace and price, mix had an impact on our reported Q1 margins. Higher demand increased in the quarter as the quarter advanced, which allowed us to sell and close more homes in the period than forecasted.

我們報告第一季的毛利率為 29.6%，比 2023 年第一季增加了 50 個基點，比 23 年第四季連續成長了 70 個基點。我們第一季的毛利率為 29.6%，也明顯高於我們的指引值。除了瑞安評論說我們透過積極管理節奏和價格獲得了高回報之外，混合對我們報告的第一季利潤率也產生了影響。隨著季度的推進，本季的需求增加，這使我們能夠在此期間出售和關閉比預期更多的房屋。

On a relative basis, more of these closings occurred in our higher-margin markets in the Southeast and Florida, resulting in a meaningful increase in reported gross margins for the quarter. Based on Q1 sign-ups and the composition of our backlog, we would expect the geographic mix of closings to be more balanced as we move through the remainder of the year.

相對而言，更多的關閉發生在東南部和佛羅裡達州的利潤率較高的市場，導致本季報告的毛利率大幅增加。根據第一季的簽約情況和積壓訂單的組成，我們預計，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，結案的地域組合將更加平衡。

That being said, we're raising our gross margin guide for the remainder of '24. We had previously guided to quarterly gross margins of 28% to 28.5%, but we now expect gross margins in the second quarter to be approximately 29.2%. Based on current backlog, we expect gross margins in the third and fourth quarters to be approximately 29%, but we still have homes to sell and close. So demand conditions over the coming months will impact the results we ultimately report. Beyond buyer demand and near-term pricing dynamics, the gross margin guide for the remainder of '24 also reflects expected changes in the geographic mix of homes we expect to close. Given recent sign-up trends, we anticipate closing more homes in our West region, which currently have a lower relative margin profile due to the fact that we adjusted pricing in these markets over the course of '23 to achieve appropriate sales paces.

話雖這麼說，我們正在提高 24 年剩餘時間的毛利率指導值。我們先前指引季度毛利率為28%至28.5%，但我們現在預計第二季毛利率約為29.2%。根據目前的積壓情況，我們預計第三季和第四季的毛利率約為 29%，但我們仍有房屋可供出售和關閉。因此，未來幾個月的需求狀況將影響我們最終報告的結果。除了買家需求和近期定價動態之外，24 年剩餘時間的毛利率指南還反映了我們預計關閉的房屋地理結構的預期變化。鑑於最近的簽約趨勢，我們預計將關閉西部地區的更多房屋，由於我們在 23 年期間調整了這些市場的定價以實現適當的銷售速度，因此目前西部地區的相對利潤率較低。

Looking at our costs. Reported SG&A in the first quarter was $358 million or 9.4% of home sale revenues. As noted in our press release, our reported SG&A for the period includes a $27 million pretax insurance benefit. SG&A in the first quarter of '23 was $337 million or 9.6% of home sale revenues. Consistent with our previous guidance, we continue to expect SG&A expense for the full year to be in the range of 9.2% to 9.5% of home sale revenues. Based on normal seasonality, we expect to realize increased overhead leverage as we move through the remaining quarters of the year.

看看我們的成本。第一季報告的 SG&A 為 3.58 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.4%。正如我們在新聞稿中所指出的，我們報告的本期 SG&A 包括 2700 萬美元的稅前保險福利。 2023 年第一季的SG&A 為3.37 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的9.6%。與我們先前的指引一致，我們繼續預計全年的銷售、管理及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 9.2% 至 9.5%。根據正常的季節性，我們預計隨著今年剩餘季度的推移，間接費用槓桿將會增加。

Our Financial Services operations reported a pretax income of $41 million for the first quarter, which is an increase of almost 200% from last year's pretax income of $14 million. The increase in Q1 pretax income was driven by better market conditions across our Financial Services platform. Financial Services also benefited from higher capture rates across all business lines, including an increase to 84%, up from 78% last year, in our mortgage operations.

我們的金融服務業務第一季稅前收入為 4,100 萬美元，比去年 1,400 萬美元的稅前收入成長了近 200%。第一季稅前收入的成長是由我們金融服務平台更好的市場狀況所推動的。金融服務也受益於所有業務線更高的捕獲率，包括抵押貸款業務的捕獲率從去年的 78% 增加到 84%。

As noted in this morning's press release, in the first quarter, we completed the sale of a joint venture that resulted in a gain of $38 million. On our income statement, this gain was recorded in equity income from unconsolidated entities. Our reported first quarter pretax income was a period of record of $869 million, an increase of 24% over last year. Against that, we recorded tax expense of $206 million, which represents an effective tax rate of 23.7%. Our reported Q1 tax rate was impacted by energy tax credits and stock compensation deductions recorded in the period. For the balance of the year, we continue to expect our tax rate to be in the range of 24% to 24.5%.

正如今天早上的新聞稿中所指出的，第一季度，我們完成了一家合資企業的出售，獲得了 3800 萬美元的收益。在我們的損益表中，此收益記錄在未合併實體的股權收入中。我們報告的第一季稅前收入達到創紀錄的 8.69 億美元，比去年增長 24%。相較之下，我們記錄的稅費為 2.06 億美元，相當於 23.7% 的有效稅率。我們報告的第一季稅率受到該期間記錄的能源稅收抵免和股票薪資扣除的影響。今年餘下的時間，我們繼續預計稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 的範圍內。

In total, our reported Q1 net income was $663 million or $3.10 per share, compared with prior year reported net income of $533 million or $2.35 per share. Earnings per share in our most recent quarter benefited from a 6% reduction in share count compared with the prior year as we continue to systematically repurchase our stock.

總的來說，我們報告的第一季淨利潤為 6.63 億美元，即每股 3.10 美元，而上一年報告的淨利潤為 5.33 億美元，即每股 2.35 美元。由於我們繼續有系統地回購股票，最近一個季度的每股盈餘受益於股票數量較上年減少 6%。

Moving past the income statement, we invested approximately $1.1 billion in land acquisition and development in the first quarter. Consistent with our recent land activity, 60% our land spend in the quarter was for the development of our existing land assets. Our Q1 land spend keeps us on track with our plan to invest approximately $5 billion in land acquisition and development for the full year, of which we continue to expect about 60% will be for development, with the remainder for the acquisition of new land positions.

撇開損益表不談，我們第一季在土地收購和開發上投資了約 11 億美元。與我們最近的土地活動一致，本季 60% 的土地支出用於開發現有土地資產。我們第一季的土地支出使我們能夠實現全年投資約 50 億美元用於土地收購和開發的計劃，我們仍然預計其中約 60% 將用於開發，其餘用於收購新土地位置。

We ended the quarter with approximately 220,000 lots under control, of which 51% were held via option. The purchase of several large land positions in combinations with decisions not to move forward with option transactions during the quarter lowered our lot option percentage from the end of 2023. I would highlight, however, that 74% of the lots we have approved in this most recent quarter were under option. As our first quarter numbers in the key, we continue to work toward our multiyear goal of controlling 70% of our land pipeline via options.

本季結束時，我們控制約 22 萬手，其中 51% 透過選擇權持有。購買多個大型土地頭寸，加上本季度不再推進期權交易的決定，從2023 年底開始降低了我們的地塊期權百分比。 74%最近一個季度正在進行選擇。隨著第一季的數字達到關鍵，我們將繼續努力實現透過選擇權控制 70% 土地管道的多年目標。

Looking at our community count, we continue to expect average community count in 2024 to increase 3% to 5% in each quarter over the comparable prior year period. Along with investing in our business, we continue to return capital to shareholders. In the quarter, we repurchased 2.3 million common shares at a cost of $246 million or an average price of $106.73 per share. In the quarter, we also opportunistically purchased approximately $10 million of our outstanding bonds. After allocating approximately $1.4 billion to investment in the return of funds to shareholders, we ended the first quarter with $1.8 billion of cash. Taking all of this into account, our quarter-end gross debt-to-capital ratio was 15.4%, while our net debt-to-capital ratio was only 1.7%.

從我們的社區數量來看，我們繼續預計 2024 年每季的平均社區數量將比去年同期增加 3% 至 5%。在投資我們的業務的同時，我們繼續向股東返還資本。本季度，我們回購了 230 萬股普通股，成本為 2.46 億美元，平均價格為每股 106.73 美元。在本季度，我們也趁機購買了約 1,000 萬美元的未償債券。在分配約 14 億美元用於向股東返還資金的投資後，我們在第一季結束時擁有 18 億美元的現金。考慮到所有這些，我們季度末的總負債與資本比率為 15.4%，而淨負債與資本比率僅為 1.7%。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

現在讓我把電話轉回瑞安，徵求一些最後的意見。

Thanks, Bob. As you would expect, given the strength of our first quarter results, buyer interest was high in the period as the order pace has increased beyond typical seasonality. That sales momentum continued into April, although we are now seeing some moderation of traffic into our communities due to the recent increases in interest rates, particularly within the Centex brand. While the change is relatively modest and based on a limited number of days, consumer feedback suggests that higher rates are causing some buyers to evaluate the timing of their activity due to the volatile interest rate environment. We'll continue to monitor how buyers respond to changes in the rate environment and are prepared to adjust pricing or incentives to ensure we are appropriately turning assets.

謝謝，鮑伯。正如您所預料的那樣，鑑於我們第一季的強勁業績，買家的興趣很高，因為訂單速度的成長超出了典型的季節性。這種銷售勢頭一直持續到 4 月份，儘管由於最近利率上升，尤其是 Centex 品牌內的利率上升，我們現在看到社群的流量放緩。雖然變化相對溫和且基於有限的天數，但消費者反饋表明，由於利率環境波動，較高的利率導致一些買家評估其活動的時間表。我們將繼續監控買家如何應對利率環境的變化，並準備調整定價或激勵措施，以確保我們適當地轉換資產。

During our last earnings call, we talked about the opportunity for PulteGroup to grow its business 5% to 10% annually. Given the lengthy land investment process, organic change in this industry takes time to accomplish, but we have been systematically planning and positioning to deliver against this goal for the past few years. I think that the company's efforts are reflected in the allocation of capital into growing our business. Including our Q1 spend since 2021, our operating teams have invested approximately $14 billion in land acquisition and development, with plans to invest another $5 billion in 2024.

在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們談到了 PulteGroup 業務每年成長 5% 至 10% 的機會。鑑於土地投資過程漫長，該行業的有機變革需要時間才能完成，但過去幾年我們一直在系統規劃和定位以實現這一目標。我認為公司的努力體現在將資本配置到發展我們的業務上。包括自 2021 年第一季以來的支出在內，我們的營運團隊已在土地收購和開發上投資了約 140 億美元，並計劃在 2024 年再投資 50 億美元。

Along with the land, we have been investing in our people and working to ensure the needed trade capacity is available to support our expanding operations. I'm proud to say that we've accomplished this while adhering to the same underwriting hurdles and investment disciplines which have been the cornerstone of PulteGroup for the past decade.

除了土地之外，我們一直在投資我們的員工，並努力確保提供所需的貿易能力來支持我們不斷擴大的業務。我很自豪地說，我們在實現這一目標的同時，遵守了過去十年來作為 PulteGroup 基石的相同承保障礙和投資紀律。

Such discipline has allowed PulteGroup to more consistently grow its earnings, drive substantial cash flow from operations and deliver high returns. And we've accomplished this while maintaining the superior build quality and customer experience which PulteGroup homebuyers have come to expect.

這種紀律使得 PulteGroup 能夠更持續地成長收益，推動營運產生大量現金流並實現高回報。我們在實現這一目標的同時，保持了 PulteGroup 購房者所期望的卓越建築品質和客戶體驗。

Before opening the call to questions, I want to take a minute to recognize and celebrate our team for once again being named a Fortune 100 Best Company to Work For. What makes this recognition so important and gratifying is that it's based on feedback from all of our employees. This marks PulteGroup's fourth consecutive year on the list and is a testament to the culture of personal caring and professional development that we work to maintain. I am proud to lead such an organization that is committed to taking care of our customers and each other.

在開始提問之前，我想花一點時間來表彰和慶祝我們的團隊再次被評為《財富》100 強最佳工作公司。這項認可之所以如此重要且令人欣慰，是因為它是基於我們所有員工的回饋。這標誌著 PulteGroup 連續第四年上榜，也證明了我們努力維護的個人關懷和專業文化。我很自豪能夠領導這樣一個致力於照顧我們的客戶和彼此的組織。

Let me now turn the call back to Jim Zeumer.

現在讓我把電話轉回吉姆·祖默。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions so we can get to as many questions as possible during the remaining time of this call. (Operator Instructions). Jean, if you would explain the process, we'll get ready with -- can start with our Q&A.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備開始提問，以便我們可以在本次電話會議的剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題。 （操作員說明）。 Jean，如果您能解釋一下這個過程，我們就會做好準備——可以從我們的問答開始。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Impressive results, and I appreciate all the guidance that you provided. I guess my first question relates to your longer-term targets with respect to land. Ryan, I think the last time I asked you this question, I was curious about sort of where your long-term target is, and I think I stated it in terms of year zones. I understand that you want to have about 7 years controlled with about 30% options over the long term. That would put you at about a little over 2 years of owned land. You're quite a bit above that now?

令人印象深刻的結果，我感謝您提供的所有指導。我想我的第一個問題與你們在土地方面的長期目標有關。瑞安，我想上次我問你這個問題時，我很好奇你的長期目標在哪裡，我想我是用年份區域來表達的。我理解您希望控制大約 7 年的時間，並在長期內擁有約 30% 的選擇權。這將使您擁有大約兩年多一點的土地。你現在已經比這個高了很多了吧？

And so my question is, am I thinking about that right? Is your long-term target for owned land a little over 2-year zoned? And over what time span do you think we should expect you to migrate to that, if that is, in fact, your target?

所以我的問題是，我的想法對嗎？您對自有土地的長期目標是否劃定為兩年多一點？如果這實際上是您的目標，您認為我們應該期望您在多長時間內遷移到該目標？

Yes, Stephen, thanks for the question. I think your overall target of 7 years control is about right. And then we stated our long-term target of optionality at 70%. We do think it will be a multiyear journey in getting there. And that's really driven by the fact, Stephen, that we want to do it in a very organic, natural way that drives ideal economics for each individual transaction.

是的，史蒂芬，謝謝你的提問。我認為你們控制7年的總體目標是差不多的。然後我們將選擇性的長期目標定為 70%。我們確實認為實現這一目標將是一個多年的旅程。史蒂芬，這實際上是由以下事實驅動的：我們希望以一種非常有機、自然的方式來實現這一點，從而為每筆交易帶來理想的經濟效益。

We highlighted in the prepared remarks, Bob did, that in the quarter, 74% of the deals that we approved were under option. We think that type of activity over the next several years will have us arrive at our long-term target in a very natural way. When we do that, to your point, we'll be right around something just over 2, 2.5 years of owned land at that point.

鮑伯在準備好的發言中強調，在本季度，我們批准的 74% 的交易都有選擇權。我們認為，未來幾年的此類活動將使我們以非常自然的方式實現我們的長期目標。當我們這樣做時，就你的觀點而言，我們將擁有大約 2、2.5 年的自有土地。

Yes. And then as you progress in that manner, it will unlock some additional cash flow in addition to your net earnings. And so I wanted to turn to cash flow next. I think you gave a guidance -- a guide for cash flow from operations for the full year previously at about $1.8 billion. You've taken up -- you had a great 1Q, you've taken up your outlook for both volume and gross margin and, let's just say, operating margin, for the year.

是的。然後，當你以這種方式取得進展時，除了你的淨利潤之外，它還將釋放一些額外的現金流。所以我接下來想轉向現金流。我認為您給出了一個指引——之前全年營運現金流量約為 18 億美元的指引。你已經接受了——你有一個很好的第一季度，你已經接受了對今年銷量和毛利率以及營業利潤率的展望。

Can you give us an update on where you're thinking cash flow from operations may come in for the full year in light of those changes? And maybe even more importantly, what should we expect in terms of deployment into dividends and repurchases? I noticed this quarter, for example, like it was pretty much -- buybacks was pretty much equal to cash flow from operations.

鑑於這些變化，您能否向我們介紹一下您認為全年營運現金流可能出現的最新情況？也許更重要的是，在股利和回購的部署方面我們應該期待什麼？例如，我注意到這個季度，回購幾乎等於營運現金流。

And your leverage has pretty much stabilized in low single digits. So is it right to think that maybe whatever you're generating cash flow from operations, with a little bit of flex quarter-to-quarter, but in general, that's about what you would deliver in terms of repayment -- sorry, repurchases and dividends?

您的槓桿率幾乎穩定在低個位數。因此，這樣的想法是否正確：也許無論你從營運中產生現金流，每個季度都有一點彈性，但總的來說，這就是你在還款方面所能提供的——抱歉，回購和股息？

Yes, Stephen, it's Bob. We didn't update the guide on cash flow. It's early in the year. We're thinking about what we're investing in the business. You can see, if you look at the balance sheet, just since the end of the year, we're up about $300 million in investment in the balance sheet, roughly half land, half house. And so to your point, we certainly expect, with incremental volume and incremental margin, that we'll generate a pretty healthy amount of cash. Some of that will be invested to meet that 5% to 10% growth that we've talked about. So more to come on that as the year progresses, certainly. But I think the bias would be for more cash from operations.

是的，史蒂芬，是鮑伯。我們沒有更新現金流量指南。現在是年初。我們正在考慮對業務進行哪些投資。你可以看到，如果你看一下資產負債表，從今年年底開始，我們的資產負債表投資就增加了約 3 億美元，其中大約一半是土地，一半是房屋。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們當然預計，隨著銷量和利潤的增加，我們將產生相當可觀的現金量。其中一部分將用於滿足我們談到的 5% 到 10% 的成長。當然，隨著時間的推移，還會有更多的事情發生。但我認為，人們會傾向於從營運中獲得更多現金。

And to your point on capital allocation, I think we've been pretty consistent, right, for the last 10 years since we laid out our strategy for capital allocation. A, invest in the business, pay a dividend that grows with earnings, buyback stock with excess capital against a modest debt profile. Obviously, the leverage is lower than we had anticipated. We look at liability management as part of our capital allocation.

至於你關於資本配置的觀點，我認為自從我們制定資本配置策略以來，過去十年我們一直非常一致，對吧。 A，投資企業，支付隨收益成長的股息，以適度的債務狀況以多餘的資本回購股票。顯然，槓桿率低於我們的預期。我們將負債管理視為資本配置的一部分。

So I don't know that I'd go so far as to say cash flow from operations will equal repurchase activity. I think we've been pretty clear, we're going to report the news on what our repurchases are going to be. But we obviously, in a world where we're generating cash at that level, particularly if we have less invested in the balance sheet as we move towards that 70%, it will free up capital, and we'll work through what to do with that capital as we generate it.

所以我不知道我是否會說營運現金流等於回購活動。我認為我們已經很清楚了，我們將報告有關回購內容的消息。但顯然，在我們以這個水平產生現金的世界裡，特別是如果我們在資產負債表上的投資減少，因為我們朝著 70% 的方向前進，這將釋放資本，我們將研究該怎麼做在我們產生資本時使用該資本。

Okay. Well, we'll be staying tuned. Congratulations on the strong results.

好的。好吧，我們將繼續關注。祝賀取得了優異的成績。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬修·布利（Matthew Bouley）。

So in the fourth quarter, you, as you mentioned, sort of didn't raise incentives to chase volume. Now speaking to rates being higher for longer, eventually we'll be past the peak of the spring demand and all that. So I guess going forward, how are you thinking about that trade-off with incentives from here? Given where your margins are, is there an opportunity to perhaps trade a little bit of that margin to drive better growth, obviously, in the context of supporting returns?

因此，正如您所提到的，在第四季度，您並沒有提高追逐銷售的激勵措施。現在談到利率持續較高的時間，最終我們將度過春季需求的高峰期等。所以我想，展望未來，您如何考慮與激勵措施之間的權衡？考慮到您的利潤率，是否有機會在支持回報的情況下，交易一點利潤來推動更好的成長？

Matt, it's Ryan. Thanks for the question. We've said it in the past, we're not going to be margin proud, and I would tell you that remains true. As we highlighted in some of my prepared remarks today, we believe our operating platform and how we've positioned our specific community investments, we're in a great position to command excellent pricing, get pace and price, which you saw in this most recent quarter. We -- given the interest rate environment that we are clearly going into higher for longer, we've got the ability to use the very powerful tool of forward mortgage rate commitments that allow us to offer a pretty attractive incentive program. Right now, we're at 5.75% nationally, and about 25% of our buyers are taking advantage of it.

馬特，這是瑞安。謝謝你的提問。我們過去就說過，我們不會以利潤為傲，我想告訴你，這仍然是事實。正如我們在今天準備的一些演講中所強調的那樣，我們相信我們的營運平台以及我們如何定位我們的特定社區投資，我們處於有利的位置，可以獲得出色的定價，獲得速度和價格，您在這最最近一個季度。考慮到我們顯然將在更長時間內進入更高的利率環境，我們有能力使用遠期抵押貸款利率來承諾這一非常強大的工具，這使我們能夠提供相當有吸引力的激勵計劃。目前，我們在全國範圍內的比例為 5.75%，大約 25% 的買家正在利用這一優勢。

The other thing I'd highlight is that 60% of our business is move-up and active adult, which tends to not be quite as rate-sensitive as the first-time buyer. With that first-time buyer, that's where predominantly our Centex brand, predominantly first-time buyers, and we see a higher percentage of those buyers take advantage of the forward rate commitments.

我要強調的另一件事是，我們 60% 的業務是升級和活躍的成年人，這往往不像首次購房者那樣對價格敏感。對於首次購買者，這主要是我們的 Centex 品牌，主要是首次購買者，我們看到這些購買者中有更高比例的人利用了遠期利率承諾。

The last piece, Matthew, that I'd probably point out is that our guide for the balance of the year assumes that the incentive load that we currently have, which on the most recent quarters closings was running at 6.5%, we've assumed that stays flat going forward.

馬修，我可能會指出的最後一篇文章是，我們對今年剩餘時間的指南假設我們目前擁有的激勵負載，在最近幾季的收盤中，激勵負載為 6.5%，我們假設未來將保持平穩。

Got you. Okay. Second one, I wanted to move to the topic of land costs and land inflation. I think last quarter, you had spoken to the potential for mid- to upper single-digit inflation in land, but maybe wasn't totally clear on exactly when that would impact your gross margin. I'm curious, can you kind of walk us through the timing of sort of land costs flowing into your gross margin? And then kind of what are you seeing in real time in the land market? Has the market started to decelerate at all or is it kind of still kind of chugging along at that mid-upper single-digit rate?

明白你了。好的。第二個，我想談談土地成本和土地通貨膨脹的議題。我認為上個季度，您曾談到土地中位數至高位通膨的可能性，但可能並不完全清楚這何時會影響您的毛利率。我很好奇，您能否向我們介紹一下土地成本流入毛利率的時間？那麼您在土地市場上即時看到了什麼？市場是否已經開始減速，或者仍然以中上個位數的速度緩慢前進？

Yes, Matt, it's Bob. That mid- to high single-digit increase in our lot cost was in our Q1 and is expected to continue through the balance of the year. So when we gave the margin guide, we had pretty good visibility into our lot cost because those are lots typically on the ground already, so it's there. In terms of the current market conditions, it's still competitive out there. I've said this before, land hasn't gone on sale, and slight variations in market typically don't result in prices declining. The market is super efficient on the way up, a little bit sticky on the way down. So for quality parcels, it's competitive.

是的，馬特，是鮑伯。我們的批量成本在第一季出現了中高個位數的成長，預計將持續到今年剩餘時間。因此，當我們提供利潤指南時，我們對批次成本有了很好的了解，因為這些批次通常已經在地面上，所以它就在那裡。就目前的市場情況來看，它仍然具有競爭力。我之前說過，土地還沒有出售，市場的輕微變化通常不會導致價格下跌。市場在上漲時非常高效，在下跌時則有點黏性。所以對於優質包裹來說，它是有競爭力的。

Your next question comes from the line of Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

I think this is the first time since mid-2020 when you haven't addressed construction cycle time. So I thought at least I'd ask. Across the markets, products and geographic markets, are cycle times effectively normalized now for you? Or are we still a little bit longer than you were pre-COVID?

我認為這是自 2020 年中期以來第一次沒有解決施工週期問題。所以我想至少我會問一下。對您來說，各個市場、產品和地理市場的週期時間現在是否已有效標準化？或者我們的時間比新冠疫情爆發前的時間還要長一點嗎？

Carl, thanks for the question. We saw a couple of days of cycle time improvement in the most recent quarter. So we were at 128 days, down from the 130 that we ended the fourth quarter of 2023 in. We are still on track and still are targeting being at 100 days by the end of the year. When we look deeper at our Q1 numbers, we had some long cycle to closings that had been in production for a long time, in many cases, were multifamily and condo buildings, that we think kept the overall number that I just shared with you of 128 days a higher -- a little bit higher than what we think is our actual run rate at this point.

卡爾，謝謝你的提問。我們在最近一個季度看到了幾天的周期時間改善。因此，我們的天數為 128 天，低於 2023 年第四季結束時的 130 天。當我們更深入地研究第一季的數據時，我們有一個很長的交房週期，這些週期已經生產了很長時間，在許多情況下，是多戶住宅和公寓大樓，我們認為保留了我剛剛與您分享的總數128 天以上——比我們目前認為的實際運行率略高一些。

When we look at a lot of our markets, we're already back to kind of pre-COVID cycle times of even sub-100 days. So we've made a lot of progress in a lot of places. We have a few markets that are a little stickier where we're working hard to get cycle times back to where we'd like them to. But by and large, we still feel that the target we've set of 100 days is very much in reach.

當我們觀察許多市場時，我們已經回到了新冠疫情之前的周期時間，甚至不到 100 天。所以我們在很多地方都取得了很大的進步。我們有一些市場的黏性比較大，我們正在努力將週期時間恢復到我們想要的水平。但總的來說，我們仍然認為我們設定的 100 天的目標已經非常接近了。

Great. And then you talked a little bit about existing home inventory creep that I think we're seeing in some of the data. If we dig into that, Ryan, if you can dig into that, is this inventory that you'd expect would be effectively a net neutral impact to the demand/supply? In other words these [surpass] to move elsewhere, versus vacant capacity, meaning investors or second homeowners who are putting their homes on the market effectively vacant? Because I think there's an important difference between the 2. So to the extent that you know, what are you seeing?

偉大的。然後你談到了現有房屋庫存的攀升，我認為我們在一些數據中看到了這一點。如果我們深入研究這一點，瑞安，如果你能深入研究這一點，你認為這個庫存實際上會對需求/供應產生淨中性影響嗎？換句話說，這些[超越]搬到其他地方，而不是空置容量，這意味著將房屋投放市場的投資者或第二房主實際上是空置的？因為我認為兩者之間有重要差異。

Yes. Outside, there might be -- I'm sure there's some markets, Carl, where there is vacant investor-driven inventory that you could characterize as new supply. The majority of the markets where we operate, we think any existing resale inventory that does come to market, those are buyers that are going to go buy another home somewhere else. So we think it's largely neutral on the overall supply side.

是的。在外面，可能會有——我確信有一些市場，卡爾，那裡有空置的投資者驅動的庫存，你可以將其描述為新的供應。在我們經營的大多數市場，我們認為任何現有的轉售庫存確實進入市場，這些買家將前往其他地方購買另一套房子。因此，我們認為整體供應方面基本上是中性的。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安東尼·佩蒂納裡（Anthony Pettinari）。

I was wondering if you could talk about maybe the potential impact of the NAR settlement on your business or maybe the broader industry, and any kind of potential secondary impacts to Pulte?

我想知道您是否可以談談 NAR 和解協議對您的業務或更廣泛的行業的潛在影響，以及對普爾特的任何潛在的二次影響？

Yes, Anthony, we're watching it closely, as I think a lot of the real estate world is. Where we think it ultimately goes is it will create better transparency around the fee structure and will likely change over time the way that the providers of those services charge the users or the consumers of those services ultimately pay. So we -- realtors are an important part of our business, and over probably 60% of the sales that we have include a buy-side realtor involved. So we certainly support the realtor community. They've been an important part of our company for a long time. But we are watching the way that the landscape there will certainly change.

是的，安東尼，我們正在密切關注，我認為房地產界的許多人也是如此。我們認為最終的結果是，它將在費用結構方面創造更好的透明度，隨著時間的推移，這些服務的提供者可能會改變這些服務的使用者或消費者最終支付費用的方式。因此，我們—房地產經紀人是我們業務的重要組成部分，我們 60% 以上的銷售額可能包括買方房地產經紀人的參與。因此，我們當然支持房地產經紀人社區。長期以來，他們一直是我們公司的重要組成部分。但我們正在觀察那裡的景觀肯定會改變。

Okay. And then you talked about stronger trends regionally, I think in Nevada, Arizona, California, if I got that right. Is there anything particularly driving that in your view? And maybe if you can just talk about the kind of long-term attractiveness of that region as you kind of build out the community count?

好的。然後你談到了更強勁的地區趨勢，如果我沒記錯的話，我想是內華達州、亞利桑那州、加州。您認為有什麼特別推動這趨勢的因素嗎？也許您可以在建立社區數量時談論該地區的長期吸引力？

Yes. A couple of things happened there. It was a market that saw a lot of price appreciation in the COVID years. Affordability, we think, got strained, for certain. Last year, we did a fair amount of price discovery as we worked to rightsize what our go-to-market price was in those markets. That, combined with, I think, a general improvement in buyer sentiment, contributed to the lights coming back on in the Western market. So some of the markets that we'd highlighted pretty consistently last year, Seattle, Northern California, Southern California, Las Vegas, Phoenix, those were strong contributors to our overall results in this most recent quarter.

是的。那裡發生了幾件事。在新冠疫情期間，這個市場的價格大幅上漲。我們認為，負擔能力肯定變得緊張。去年，我們在努力調整這些市場的上市價格時進行了大量的價格發現。我認為，再加上買家情緒的普遍改善，促成了西方市場的復甦。因此，我們去年一直強調的一些市場，西雅圖、北加州、南加州、拉斯維加斯、鳳凰城，這些市場對我們最近一個季度的整體表現做出了重要貢獻。

We'd expect that to continue. Bob highlighted that the relative margin contribution out of those markets will be lower than some of the other parts of our business. We've incorporated that incremental volume that we're getting at a slightly lower margin contribution profile into our guide. So we're -- look, we're pleased that those markets are contributing. We got a lot of capital invested there. They're big housing markets. People want to live there for a number of reasons: climate, jobs, et cetera. So we're pleased that they're doing well.

我們預計這種情況會持續下去。鮑伯強調，這些市場的相對利潤貢獻將低於我們業務的其他部分。我們已將以略低的利潤貢獻情況獲得的增量納入我們的指南中。所以我們——看，我們很高興這些市場正在做出貢獻。我們在那裡投入了大量資金。它們是巨大的房地產市場。人們想住在那裡的原因有很多：氣候、就業等等。所以我們很高興他們做得很好。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

This is Andrew Azzi on for Mike. A quick one. I just wanted to drill down, if I could, on the demand trends you've been seeing over the last few months, just given the change of rates and some concerns in the market, I'd love any kind of progression you saw in the quarter and here into April.

我是安德魯·阿齊 (Andrew Azzi) 替邁克發言。快一點。如果可以的話，我只是想深入了解您在過去幾個月中看到的需求趨勢，考慮到利率的變化和市場上的一些擔憂，我希望您看到的任何進展本季和四月份。

Yes. It was a strong quarter, a strong first quarter. We highlighted that we saw some trends that were even stronger than normal seasonality. We -- the first few weeks of April have continued to show signs of strength. We did highlight that, as we look at traffic, new traffic that's coming into the stores, while a limited number of days in that data set, we are seeing a small downturn that we think is reflective of the change in the rate environment.

是的。這是一個強勁的季度，強勁的第一季。我們強調，我們看到了一些比正常季節性更強的趨勢。在四月的前幾週，我們繼續顯示出強勁的跡象。我們確實強調，當我們觀察流量時，進入商店的新流量，雖然該數據集中的天數有限，但我們看到了小幅下滑，我們認為這反映了費率環境的變化。

So we're going to keep an eye on it. We don't, at this point, think it's anything to be too learned about, but we're watching it.

所以我們將密切關注它。目前，我們並不認為這有什麼值得了解的，但我們正在觀察它。

Great. And then, I guess, secondly, on the material costs, how have these kind of trended? And any kind of detail and how that's reflected in your 2Q gross margin, kind of your assumptions for stick and brick costs?

偉大的。然後，我想，其次，在材料成本方面，這些趨勢如何？任何細節以及它如何反映在您的第二季度毛利率中，您對棒和磚成本的假設是什麼？

Sure. Build costs, they were stable in the first quarter, about $80 a square foot for base house. That's flat with Q4 of '23. It's actually down from $84 a square foot in the first quarter of last year. As we look at '24, we expect cost inflation in labor, materials to be pretty manageable with low single-digit increases, and we factored that into our guide.

當然。建築成本，第一季維持穩定，基本房每平方英尺約 80 美元。這與 23 年第四季持平。實際上比去年第一季的每平方英尺 84 美元有所下降。展望 24 年，我們預期勞動力、材料成本通膨將相當可控，增幅較低，個位數增幅較低，我們已將其納入我們的指南中。

I appreciate it. Congrats on the quarter.

我很感激。恭喜本季。

Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS Financial.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀金融集團 (UBS Financial) 的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

So the revised full year gross margin outlook is about flat year-over-year. And I think previously, you had talked about pricing being kind of flat year-over-year. That was a little bit better in the first quarter, for sure. Mid- to high single-digit land cost depreciation, kind of low single-digit construction cost appreciation. Just curious how you guys are managing that to actually achieve a flat year-over-year gross margin in that kind of cost environment with what had previously been expected to be sort of flattish pricing.

因此，修正後的全年毛利率前景與去年同期基本持平。我想之前，您曾談到定價與去年同期持平。當然，第一季的情況要好一些。中高個位數的土地成本折舊，低個位數的建築成本增值。只是好奇你們如何在這種成本環境下實現與去年同期持平的毛利率，而之前預期的定價會持平。

Yes. I think it's the strength of the market, John. We highlighted that we're raising prices in a number of our communities, that 1% to 5%. That's really the driver combined, certainly in this first quarter, with the mix differential that we had highlighted.

是的。我認為這是市場的力量，約翰。我們強調，我們正在提高一些社區的價格，即 1% 到 5%。這確實是驅動因素的結合，當然在第一季度，以及我們強調的混合差異。

So is it pricing -- just pricing and mix a little bit better than previously expected?

那麼定價是否只是定價和組合比之前預期的好一點呢？

Yes. Just to be clear, John, the mix was really a Q1 issue. We think that spools out based on the relative strength of volume that Ryan highlighted out West. So we'll get more of that relatively lower margin profile in the back half of the year.

是的。約翰，需要明確的是，混合確實是第一季的問題。我們認為，這是基於瑞安強調的韋斯特交易量的相對強度。因此，我們將在今年下半年獲得更多相對較低的利潤率。

Okay. And that was sort of my follow-up is, if we think about the positive mix impact in the first quarter, I mean, how much of the slight step-down from 29.6% to 29.2% in the gross margin outlook for the second quarter, is the reversal of that mix impact? Or is that really more of a back half phenomenon?

好的。我的後續行動是，如果我們考慮第一季的正面組合影響，我的意思是，第二季毛利率前景從 29.6% 略微下降到 29.2% 有多少，是混合影響的逆轉嗎？或者這實際上更像是後半場現象？

It's both, right? But you'll see some of it in Q2 based on the sales that we did in the first quarter, and then you'll see more of it later in the year. That's part of the reason for the step-down, margin. The other thing that we highlighted on the call, we still have a lot of homes to sell for the back half of the year. And so the point we were making is we -- it depends on how the demand environment holds up. If it does, that's good. If the market changed, you could see plus or minus depending on whether it's the positive change or a negative change.

兩者都是，對吧？但是，根據我們第一季的銷售額，您將在第二季度看到其中的一些，然後您將在今年晚些時候看到更多。這是利潤率下降的部分原因。我們在電話會議上強調的另一件事是，今年下半年我們仍有許多房屋可供出售。因此，我們要表達的觀點是──這取決於需求環境的持續性。如果是的話，那就太好了。如果市場發生變化，您可能會看到正值或負值，這取決於是正變化還是負變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Reid with Wells Fargo.

你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的山姆·里德（Sam Reid）。

Thanks for the incremental color on April, especially the traffic detail. I mean it definitely makes sense that the Centex buyer is a bit more rate clash payment sensitive. But I wanted to drill down on this a bit more and maybe see if you had any perspective on traffic across other parts of your business, that 60% that's kind of active adult and move-up? And what you're seeing from that buyer cohort, if anything, as rates move?

感謝四月的增量色彩，尤其是交通細節。我的意思是，Centex 買家對利率衝突付款更加敏感，這絕對是有道理的。但我想更深入地探討這一點，也許看看您對業務其他部分的流量是否有任何看法，60% 是活躍的成人和升級？隨著利率的變化，您從買家群體中看到了什麼（如果有的話）？

Sam, we don't -- we're not parsing the traffic data quite that finally for the purpose of this call. One other data point that I will tell you, while we've seen traffic into the stores moderate over the last several days, traffic to the website has been incredibly strong. So we still think that there's high buyer demand and desire for homeownership. Certainly, anytime there's rate fluctuations, that can cause some disruption in buyer behavior. But we think the fundamental or the overall demand for housing remains incredibly strong, and we're still in a very supply-constrained environment.

Sam，我們沒有－我們最終不會為了這次通話的目的而解析流量資料。我要告訴你的另一個數據點是，雖然過去幾天我們看到商店的流量有所放緩，但網站的流量卻異常強勁。因此，我們仍然認為買家的需求和擁有住房的願望很高。當然，任何時候出現價格波動，都可能會對買家行為造成一些幹擾。但我們認為，住房的基本面或整體需求仍然非常強勁，而且我們仍然處於供應非常緊張的環境中。

So the overall thesis about this has been a strong operating environment for the industry and this company in what's been a pretty high interest rate environment. We think the environment that we would expect for the balance of the year, we can continue to show success in that type of situation as well. Affordability is, there's no question, it is the headwind that we'll continue to navigate for the balance of the year, and we think we've got the tools to do that.

因此，總體而言，該行業和該公司在利率相當高的環境下擁有強大的營運環境。我們認為，在我們預期的今年剩餘時間的環境中，我們也可以繼續在這種情況下取得成功。毫無疑問，負擔能力是我們將在今年餘下時間繼續應對的逆風，我們認為我們已經擁有做到這一點的工具。

No, that's helpful. And then maybe switching gears here. It's been a little while since this topic has come up. But can you talk to your relationship with Invitation on the single-family rental side? And give us an update on where things stand, perhaps how many homes you're looking to sell to them this year? Any color there would be great.

不，這很有幫助。然後也許在這裡換檔。這個話題已經有一段時間了。但您能談談您與 Invitation 在單戶租賃方面的關係嗎？請告訴我們最新的情況，也許今年您打算向他們出售多少房屋？任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. We targeted when we kind of kicked off the philosophy or the strategy that we had on single-family rental with Invitation Homes. And we also partner with some other local single-family rental operators as well. We've targeted to be somewhere around 5% of our total volume would go into the single-family rental kind of channels. The current year, the closings that we have that will go into that pipeline are right kind of in that 5% range.

是的。當我們啟動 Invitation Homes 的單戶租賃理念或策略時，我們就確定了目標。我們也與其他一些當地的單戶租賃業者合作。我們的目標是讓我們總銷量的 5% 左右進入單戶租賃管道。今年，我們將進入該通路的成交量正好在 5% 的範圍內。

Certainly, the interest rate environment currently, I think, makes it harder for the single-family rental operators to underwrite their deals. We wouldn't expect that to necessarily be the case forever. But in the kind of right here and now, a little harder to make those deals pencil for those SFR operators. It's part of the reason that we've said we want it to be part of our business, but not such an outsized component that it creates disruptions on how we operate.

當然，我認為目前的利率環境使單戶租賃業者更難承保其交易。我們不希望這種情況永遠如此。但在此時此地，要為那些 SFR 業者達成這些交易有點困難。這是我們表示希望它成為我們業務的一部分的部分原因，但又不是一個龐大的組成部分，以免對我們的營運方式造成乾擾。

Your next question comes from the line of Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about on the cost side, what are you seeing today in terms of the cash cost of the -- for land and materials, relative to what's flowing through your P&L? And what's kind of the outlook on the cost side?

我想知道您是否可以談談成本方面的問題，您今天看到的土地和材料的現金成本相對於您的損益表的流動情況如何？成本方面的前景如何？

Well, certainly, on the material side, it is pretty consistent. And as Jim highlighted, there are build cost per foot flat. The only thing where we're really feeling any pressure there is on OSB, which has run up a little bit. In terms of the land, we've highlighted that high single-digit increase in lot cost, that is candidly continuing a theme that has been going on for a number of years. And it's likely to persist. We -- I've often described it as a conveyor belt of land.

嗯，當然，在材料方面，它是相當一致的。正如吉姆所強調的那樣，每英尺公寓都有建造成本。我們唯一真正感受到壓力的是定向刨花板，它的價格有所上漲。就土地而言，我們強調了地塊成本的高個位數增長，這坦率地延續了多年來一直存在的主題。而且這種情況很可能會持續下去。我們—我經常將其描述為陸地傳送帶。

And we have 3 years of lots that we buy at any -- or control at any one point in time, and they kind of roll on the most recent year falls off. Every new year coming on is a little bit more expensive, and that's a combination of increased land cost and increased development costs. But we haven't seen a step change in that, if that's really what you're focused on. So again, I think you can and should expect to see our lot cost going up for the foreseeable future.

我們有3年的土地，我們可以在任何時候購買——或者在任何時間點控制，而且它們會隨著最近一年的下滑而滾動。每逢新的一年到來，價格都會上漲一點，這是土地成本增加和開發成本增加的綜合結果。但如果這確實是您關注的重點的話，我們還沒有看到這方面的重大變化。再說一遍，我認為您可以而且應該預期在可預見的未來我們的批次成本會上漲。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just looking at the first quarter gross margin, can you just talk about the drivers of the quarter-over-quarter -- the 70 basis points quarter-over-quarter step up? And then what was the upside to your initial guidance?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後看看第一季的毛利率，您能否談談季度環比的驅動因素——環比上升 70 個基點？那麼您最初的指導有什麼好處呢？

Sorry, was that -- are you asking sequentially or year-over-year?

抱歉，您是連續詢問還是逐年詢問？

Sequentially.

依次。

Yes. So you've got 70 basis points. Certainly, a part of that is going to be the strength of -- relative to our guide, of the strength of the market, where for the spec homes that we sold, we got better pricing, which was a relative margin benefit over the fourth quarter. And the other thing is the mix shift, not just in terms of geography, which we had highlighted, but on a sequential basis, we also had a mix shift towards move-up which has this higher margin profile relative to first time, which is where the margin came from. They have -- I hate to use this, but there's mix and there's a couple of different mixes going on. But when you're looking at the sequential margin performance, certainly, it's the strength of the market relative to what we thought coming into it, and also, it's a little bit more move-up, which has a higher margin profile for us.

是的。所以你有 70 個基點。 Certainly, a part of that is going to be the strength of -- relative to our guide, of the strength of the market, where for the spec homes that we sold, we got better pricing, which was a relative margin benefit over the fourth四分之一.另一件事是混合轉變，不僅僅是在地理位置方面，我們已經強調了這一點，而且在連續的基礎上，我們也進行了向上升方向的混合轉變，相對於第一次，它的利潤率更高，這是保證金從哪裡來。他們有——我討厭用這個，但有混合，而且有幾種不同的混合正在進行中。但是，當你查看連續的利潤率表現時，當然，這是市場相對於我們的預期的實力，而且，它的上升幅度更大，這對我們來說具有更高的利潤率。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Mike Dahl。

I'm going to stick with margins. Bob, you kind of alluded to this. It's a tricky time when you've just had this rate move. You're maybe just on the front end of seeing some traffic impacts that you're having to give guide out a few quarters. And so I appreciate that there's still some uncertainty when you've got 1/3 of your full year closings yet to be sold.

我會堅持保留邊距。鮑勃，你提到了這一點。當您剛剛進行此利率調整時，這是一個棘手的時刻。您可能剛剛看到一些交通影響，您必須在幾個季度內提供指導。因此，我意識到，當全年成交量的 1/3 尚未售出時，仍然存在一些不確定性。

So maybe just talk through the assumption for flat incentives against this move in rates. Just talk about kind of why that was -- why that is kind of the baseline assumption or if it just felt like kind of the right placeholders and matches kind of what your backlog margins look like today? Maybe just a little more detail on how you went through this process that kind of an odd time when the rate move just happened?

因此，也許只是討論一下針對此利率變動採取統一激勵措施的假設。只是談談為什麼會這樣——為什麼這是一種基線假設，或者它是否只是感覺像是一種正確的佔位符並且與您今天的積壓利潤相匹配？也許只是更詳細地說明在利率變動剛發生的奇怪時刻，您是如何經歷這個過程的？

Yes, it's interesting. I'd refer back to something Ryan offered, which is that affordability is still a challenge. And so it gets that backdrop. Our expectation is that we will need to continue to incentivize folks. And the predominant way we're doing that today is through our national commitments and some sort of rate band support. So our expectation is that, that continues. That was our expectation coming into the year. In the first quarter, you all have heard us say, it was 6.5%, again, just like the fourth quarter, that's roughly $35,000, $40,000 a house.

是的，這很有趣。我想回顧一下 Ryan 提出的觀點，即負擔能力仍然是一個挑戰。所以它就有了這樣的背景。我們的期望是我們需要繼續激勵人們。我們今天這樣做的主要方式是透過我們的國家承諾和某種費率範圍來支持。所以我們的期望是，這種情況會持續下去。這是我們對今年的期望。第一季度，你們都聽我們說過，是 6.5%，就像第四季度一樣，大約是 35,000 美元，一套房子 40,000 美元。

In a world where rates are actually trending back up, I think that we're going to need to continue to support that. So it's a little bit challenging, to your point. But I think on balance, our expectation is that's where we're going to need to meet some of the affordability needs. It's one of the reasons we think you'll continue to see this strong market performance on a relative basis of new versus resale, because we can offer those incentives.

在利率實際上呈現回升趨勢的世界中，我認為我們需要繼續支持這一點。因此，就您而言，這有點具有挑戰性。但我認為總的來說，我們的期望是我們需要滿足一些負擔能力需求。這也是我們認為您將繼續在新品與轉售的相對基礎上看到強勁市場表現的原因之一，因為我們可以提供這些激勵措施。

And I guess as my follow-up, more specifically, that kind of implies that you'll get your advertised rates float up over time to match what the market move is and maintain your relative incentive. And so if you're allowing your rate to kind of float up, call it, 40, 50 basis points from where it may have been a month or 2 ago, what have you done or seen in terms of kind of thinking about sensitizing some of the recent demand trends, particularly in your Centex brand? I understand that it's not going to be a major, potentially, not as major a dynamic for your move-up or active adult. But in your Centex brand, what's the sensitivity to a 40, 50 basis point move in rates that you've kind of seen or thought about?

我想作為我的後續行動，更具體地說，這意味著您的廣告價格將隨著時間的推移而浮動，以匹配市場走勢並保持您的相對激勵。因此，如果你允許利率上浮，可以說是從一兩個月前的水平上調 40、50 個基點，那麼你在考慮提高某些人的敏感度方面做了什麼或看到了什麼？ ，特別是您的Centex 品牌的需求趨勢？我知道這對你的升遷或活躍的成年人來說不會是一個主要的、潛在的、不那麼重要的動力。但在您的 Centex 品牌中，您所看到或考慮過的利率變動 40、50 個基點的敏感度如何？

Well, certainly, for that true entry-level buyer, it's the game, right? And so we've got programs that offer them lower cost incentives, so we're giving them more rate support, relative to others who have choices. And it's worth it to remember we offer a national program, but there's a lot of detail in terms of what we can and actually do offer to people and what they want to kind of access in terms of our support. There will be some people with rates moving up that will literally fall off the ability to buy a home. That's not the case for our active adult and move-up buyers, and candidly, for a lot of our Centex buyers.

嗯，當然，對於真正的入門級買家來說，這就是遊戲，對吧？因此，我們制定了為他們提供較低成本激勵措施的計劃，因此相對於其他有選擇的人，我們為他們提供更多的利率支持。值得記住的是，我們提供了一項國家計劃，但在我們可以、實際上為人們提供什麼以及他們希望獲得什麼支持方面有很多細節。有些人的利率上升，實際上會導致他們買房的能力下降。對於我們活躍的成人和升級買家來說，情況並非如此，坦白說，對於我們的許多 Centex 買家來說，情況並非如此。

You look at our average sales price at $419,000 in this most recent quarter, that's not typically your true entry-level buyer. We're at a little bit higher price point. Our first-time communities are typically a little bit closer in. And so I think it depends on who your buyer is.

您看看我們最近一個季度的平均銷售價格為 419,000 美元，這通常不是您真正的入門級買家。我們的價格稍微高一點。我們的首次社區通常距離更近一些。

But to answer your question about will we vary our offering? The answer is yes, we have been. We are actively managing these national programs. We're buying commitments in relatively small amounts so that we don't get caught by market changes. And what it allows us to do is change our offering based on what the market is doing. So as the market rates floated down, we moved our offer rate down somewhat to try and be responsive to deliver a real savings versus the street rate that they could get on their mortgage. As rates tick back up, we're moving those rates up a little bit. It's an art, not a science. But I think what you could expect us to do is listen to the consumers in terms of what they need, and seek to offer them programs that give them what they need.

但要回答您的問題，我們是否會改變我們的產品？答案是肯定的，我們一直都是。我們正在積極管理這些國家計劃。我們購買的承諾數量相對較少，這樣我們就不會受到市場變化的影響。它使我們能夠根據市場的變化來改變我們的產品。因此，隨著市場利率下降，我們將報價利率下調了一些，以嘗試做出回應，以相對於他們可以透過抵押貸款獲得的街頭利率提供真正的節省。隨著利率回升，我們將利率上調一點。這是一門藝術，而不是一門科學。但我認為您可以期望我們做的是傾聽消費者的需求，並尋求為他們提供滿足他們需求的計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

您的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner)。

Nice quarter. So would love to get your updated thoughts on specs versus build-to-order? I know you and others kind of ramp the spec production as cycle times re-elongated and there was a premium or at least kind of that margin differential, spec versus BTO was kind of smaller than it historically has been. I'm just curious if you're thinking about that any differently today with cycle times continuing to normalize and rates seemingly being higher for longer.

不錯的季度。那麼想了解您對規格與按訂單生產的最新想法嗎？我知道你和其他人隨著週期時間的重新延長而提高了規格生產，並且存在溢價或至少是某種程度的利潤差異，規格與 BTO 相比比歷史上要小一些。我只是好奇你今天是否有不同的想法，因為週期時間繼續正常化，而且利率似乎在更長時間內保持在較高水準。

It sounds like maybe the Centex offering, which is predominantly spec, I would think, is maybe seeing more of that impact from the move-in rates. So are you at the point now where you are kind of dialing back the spec starts a bit? Or do you still want to maintain the current mix of your business?

聽起來，我認為主要是規格的 Centex 產品可能會從入住率中看到更多的影響。那麼，您現在是否正在稍微調整一下規範的開頭呢？或者您仍想維持目前的業務組合嗎？

Yes. We're pretty happy with where we're operating. And we look at a couple of -- I mean, the first thing we look at is what's the percentage of build-to-order versus spec sales. Right now, it's running around 50-50. And then we highlighted in Bob's prepared remarks, 40% of our WIP is spec, and we've got a little bit higher than 1 final per active community.

是的。我們對我們的營運地點非常滿意。我們會考慮一些——我的意思是，我們首先考慮的是按訂單生產與規格銷售的百分比是多少。現在，它運行在50-50左右。然後我們在 Bob 準備好的發言中強調，我們的 WIP 的 40% 是規格，每個活躍社群的最終數量略高於 1 個。

So we pay attention to it closely. It's something that we spend a lot of time managing and being responsive to what we're seeing in the market. To your point, most of our spec -- or Centex business is spec. We certainly have a little bit of spec in the other 2 brands, but Pulte and Del Webb tend to be more of a build-to-order kind of model, and we're certainly responsive to that as well.

所以我們密切注意。我們花費大量時間來管理和回應我們在市場上看到的情況。就您而言，我們的大部分規格——或者 Centex 業務都是規格。我們當然對其他兩個品牌有一些規格，但 Pulte 和 Del Webb 往往更多的是按訂單生產的模式，我們當然也會對此做出反應。

So we're going to watch it, but in a higher interest rate environment, having available specs that you can more efficiently and effective apply the most powerful incentive to in the form of the forward mortgage rate commitments, you can do that better on spec inventory, which makes it more attractive. So you'll probably see us stay pretty close to where we're at.

因此，我們將關注它，但在利率較高的環境中，擁有可用的規範，您可以更有效地以遠期抵押貸款利率承諾的形式應用最強大的激勵措施，您可以在規範上做得更好庫存充足，這使其更具吸引力。所以你可能會看到我們離現在的位置非常近。

Great. Appreciate your thoughts there, Ryan. And then pivoting to kind of the incentive environment, I think, obviously, you guys certainly made the right call by not chasing the market lower in the fourth quarter based on your performance this quarter. It sounds like from your guide, for flattish incentives, you're not expecting to have to ramp discount as the selling season kind of moves into its later stages.

偉大的。感謝你的想法，瑞安。然後轉向某種激勵環境，我認為，顯然，根據本季的表現，你們在第四季不追逐市場走低，這當然做出了正確的決定。從您的指南看來，對於平淡的激勵措施，您並不期望隨著銷售季節進入後期階段而必須加大折扣。

But what is the sensitivity you're looking at there? How much longer will the more recent, I guess, softer traffic trends or maybe sales activity, how long would that have to persist before you would sit there and say, you know what, we need to maybe increase those incentives a little bit to bring up the sales pace? Is it a few months? Is it kind of getting past the peak of the selling season and you're sitting on more inventory than you'd like? What's the decision process there look like?

但你所看到的靈敏度是多少？我猜，最近的流量趨勢或銷售活動疲軟會持續多久，這種情況需要持續多久，你才會坐在那裡說，你知道嗎，我們可能需要稍微增加這些激勵措施，以帶來加快銷售速度？是幾個月嗎？銷售旺季已經過去，您的庫存是否超出了您的預期？那裡的決策過程是什麼樣的呢？

Yes, Alan, we look at sales rates every single day. It's one of the first e-mails that I look at, is what had sales for the prior day come in at. And we look at qualitative and quantitative feedback that we get from our field operations in going through that decision-making process. What I can tell you is the change in rate, never mind what it was and never mind what it's going to, just the mere fact something changed, we've seen that cause pauses in buyer behavior over the last 2 or -- last 24 months. Any time there's been a step change in rate and the media cycle that goes with it, that certainly has a pretty profound impact on buyer behavior.

是的，艾倫，我們每天都會查看銷售率。這是我看到的第一封電子郵件，其中包含前一天的銷售額。我們會在決策過程中查看從現場操作中獲得的定性和定量回饋。我可以告訴你的是費率的變化，不管它是什麼，也不管它會發生什麼，只是事實發生了變化，我們已經看到這導致了過去 2 或 - 過去 24 年間買家行為的暫停幾個月。每當費率和隨之而來的媒體週期發生階躍變化時，這肯定會對買家行為產生相當深遠的影響。

Time does seem to cure it. The only thing that I would continue to kind of caveat, put out there is that affordability continues to be a real issue. And so we've got to balance the change there. We think one of the things that we're going to continue to do is pay attention to what the headline rate is. And Bob talked about that a few questions ago. Our national mortgage rate incentives have got the flexibility to move based on what the market is doing. So we still think we can have a compelling offer out there relative to the street rate that doesn't necessarily cost us a whole bunch more relative to what we're currently paying.

時間似乎確實可以治癒它。我唯一要繼續警告的是，負擔能力仍然是一個真正的問題。所以我們必須平衡那裡的變化。我們認為我們要繼續做的事情之一就是關注整體利率是多少。鮑伯在幾個問題前談到了這一點。我們的國家抵押貸款利率激勵措施可以根據市場動態靈活調整。因此，我們仍然認為，相對於市場價格，我們可以提供令人信服的報價，但相對於我們目前所支付的價格，我們不一定要花更多錢。

The last piece, Alan, is we are going to keep our production machine moving. We are a production builder. And we're going to do that in a way that we think optimize this kind of return. So if there are price changes or discount changes that ultimately have an impact on affordability that allow us to continue to turn the asset and keep the market share that we have, we'll definitely do that.

最後一點，艾倫，我們要保持我們的生產機器運作。我們是生產建設者。我們將以我們認為優化這種回報的方式來做到這一點。因此，如果價格變化或折扣變化最終對承受能力產生影響，使我們能夠繼續轉變資產並保持我們擁有的市場份額，我們肯定會這樣做。

We have reached the end of the call, and we'll take our final question from Ken Zener with Seaport Research Partners.

電話會議已經結束，我們將接受 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener 提出的最後一個問題。

I wonder if you could just give some context on the regional comments you made, and want to narrow it down to Florida, because it's a segment that obviously generates quite a bit of your EBIT. Can you, within Florida, talk about how that existing market supply rising affected, let's say, the Centex versus your move-up brands, realizing Orlando's different than coastal markets, but it's such a big market for you guys profitability-wise. If you could maybe give a little color related to the margin swings, you kind of staying with those trade-up buyers, entry, within markets that are seeing the pickup in inventory specific to Florida?

我想知道您是否可以就您所做的區域評論提供一些背景信息，並希望將範圍縮小到佛羅裡達州，因為它顯然是一個為您帶來相當多息稅前利潤的細分市場。您能否在佛羅裡達州談談現有市場供應量的增加如何影響Centex 與您的升級品牌，意識到奧蘭多與沿海市場不同，但從盈利角度來看，這對你們來說是一個很大的市場。如果您可以提供一些與利潤波動相關的信息，您是否會與那些以舊換新的買家待在一起，進入佛羅裡達州特定庫存增加的市場？

Yes. Ken, I want to make sure that I understood kind of the full question. Maybe I'll give you a little bit of Florida commentary, and then if there's more follow-up, I'll let you ask that. Florida is a tremendous part of our business. We're in nearly every major housing market there, save Miami. And a big part of our business there tends to be focused on move-up and age targeted. We have some entry-level business in our Tampa and Orlando businesses, but the other big markets are predominantly move-up and age-targeted. We get a little bit of a move-up in Jacksonville as well -- or a little bit of entry level in Jacksonville as well.

是的。肯，我想確保我理解了完整的問題。也許我會給你一些佛羅裡達州的評論，然後如果有更多後續行動，我會讓你問這個問題。佛羅裡達州是我們業務的重要組成部分。除了邁阿密外，我們幾乎涉足所有主要房地產市場。我們在那裡的業務的很大一部分往往集中在升級和年齡目標上。我們在坦帕和奧蘭多的業務中有一些入門級業務，但其他大市場主要是針對升級和年齡目標的。我們在傑克遜維爾也得到了一點提升——或者在傑克遜維爾也得到了一點入門級。

So really strong business. A lot of job relocation there. A lot of folks that want to be there because they've got flexible work arrangements that allow them to work from home or work from elsewhere. The headwinds in Florida are definitely affordability. We've seen strong price appreciation in most Florida markets. And then the other kind of headwind that you've got there is around property taxes and insurance. So certainly, those things kind of play into that, but Florida continues to be a big part of our business and a real bright spot for our business as well.

業務確實非常強勁。那裡有很多工作轉移。很多人都想去那裡，因為他們有靈活的工作安排，允許他們在家工作或在其他地方工作。佛羅裡達州的不利因素絕對是負擔能力。我們看到佛羅裡達州大多數市場的價格大幅上漲。然後你遇到的另一個阻力是財產稅和保險。當然，這些因素都會影響到這一點，但佛羅裡達州仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分，也是我們業務的真正亮點。

I will now turn the conference back over to Jim Zeumer for closing remarks.

現在，我將把會議轉回吉姆·祖默 (Jim Zeumer) 致閉幕詞。

Great. Appreciate everybody's time today. We're around the remainder of the day for any follow-up questions. And we look forward to speaking with you at the various upcoming conferences and/or on our next quarter's earnings call. Thanks for your time.

偉大的。感謝大家今天的時間。我們將在當天剩餘的時間回答任何後續問題。我們期待在即將舉行的各種會議和/或下一季的財報電話會議上與您交談。謝謝你的時間。

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。