普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PulteGroup Inc. Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to welcome Jim Zeumer, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin the call. Jim, over to you.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 PulteGroup Inc. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。現在我歡迎投資者關係副總裁 Jim Zeumer 開始電話會議。吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks [Mandeep] Good morning, and let me welcome participants on today's call.

謝謝 [Mandeep] 早安，請允許我歡迎今天電話會議的參與者。

We look forward to discussing PulteGroup's strong fourth quarter and full year financial results for the period ended December 31, 2023.

我們期待討論 PulteGroup 截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的強勁第四季度和全年財務業績。

I'm joined on today's call by Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O'Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Ossowski, Senior Vice President, Finance.

總裁兼執行長瑞安馬歇爾 (Ryan Marshall) 參加了今天的電話會議。 Bob O'Shaughnessy，執行副總裁兼財務長；吉姆‧奧索夫斯基 (Jim Ossowski)，財務資深副總裁。

A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We will post an audio replay of this call later today.

我們的收益發布副本和今天早上的簡報幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們將在今天稍後發布本次通話的音訊重播。

Please note that consistent with this morning's earnings release, we will be discussing our debt ratio on both at gross and net basis. A reconciliation of our adjusted results to our reported financials is included in this morning's release and within today's webcast slides. And finally, I want to alert everyone that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance.

請注意，與今天上午發布的收益報告一致，我們將討論我們的總負債比率和淨負債比率。我們的調整後結果與報告的財務數據的調節包含在今天早上的發布和今天的網路廣播幻燈片中。最後，我想提醒大家，今天的演示包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

實際結果可能與我們今天評論中建議的結果有重大差異。在今天的收益發布和隨附的簡報幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來業績的最重要的風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. I'm excited to speak with you today about PulteGroup's outstanding fourth quarter and full year financial results. Over the past few years, we have faced macro challenges ranging from COVID to supply chain disruptions to skyrocketing mortgage rates. Through it all, we remain disciplined and consistent in running our operations. But when needed, have quickly adjusted key business practices to position PulteGroup for ongoing success.

謝謝，吉姆，早安。我很高興今天與您談論 PulteGroup 出色的第四季度和全年財務業績。在過去的幾年裡，我們面臨著從新冠疫情到供應鏈中斷再到飆升的抵押貸款利率等宏觀挑戰。在這一切過程中，我們在營運中始終保持紀律和一致性。但在需要時，迅速調整關鍵業務實踐，使 PulteGroup 能夠持續成功。

The benefits of this approach can be seen in the strength of our reported results. Bob will detail our Q4 performance, so let me highlight several of our key operating and financial achievements for the full year of 2023. By strategically increasing our spec production, we had more inventory available to meet the demand of first-time homebuyers and those consumers worried about mortgage rate volatility. Increased house inventory was a critical support to PulteGroup delivering 28,600 homes in 2023 and record home sale revenues of $15.6 billion.

這種方法的好處可以從我們報告的結果看出。鮑勃將詳細介紹我們第四季度的業績，所以讓我重點介紹我們2023 年全年的幾項主要營運和財務成就。透過策略性地增加我們的規格產量，我們擁有更多庫存來滿足首次購房者和消費者的需求擔心抵押貸款利率波動。房屋庫存的增加為 PulteGroup 在 2023 年交付 28,600 套房屋以及創紀錄的 156 億美元房屋銷售收入提供了關鍵支持。

In the face of increased cost for land, labor and materials, we carefully manage product offerings, pricing, incentives and absorption paces to maintain high profitability while ensuring we continue to turn our assets. The result, we reported outstanding full year gross margins of 29.3%, which helped drive a 6% increase in earnings per share to a record $11.72 per share and a 27% return on equity.

面對土地、勞動力和材料成本的增加，我們仔細管理產品供應、定價、激勵和吸收步伐，以保持高盈利能力，同時確保我們繼續週轉我們的資產。結果，我們公佈了 29.3% 的出色全年毛利率，推動每股收益成長 6%，達到創紀錄的每股 11.72 美元，股本回報率達到 27%。

We also continue to efficiently increase our land pipeline as we completed transactions to put approximately 40,000 new lots under control. Inclusive of these lots, 53% of our total land pipeline is under option, either with the land sellers or through our expanding land banking structures.

我們也繼續有效地增加土地儲備，完成交易以控制約 40,000 個新地塊。包括這些地塊在內，我們有 53% 的土地儲備可供選擇，無論是透過土地賣家還是透過我們不斷擴大的土地儲備結構。

Since making the decision to expand our use of land banking starting 15 months ago, we have placed approximately 25 communities, representing $1.5 billion worth of future land and development spend into such structures. And finally, consistent with our stated capital allocation priorities, we invested $4.3 billion in the business through land acquisition and development spend in 2023 and returned $1.2 billion to investors through share repurchases, dividends and debt paydown.

自 15 個月前決定擴大土地儲備的使用以來，我們已將大約 25 個社區（相當於未來價值 15 億美元的土地和開發支出）放入此類結構中。最後，根據我們規定的資本配置優先事項，我們在 2023 年透過土地收購和開發支出向該業務投資了 43 億美元，並透過股票回購、股息和債務償還向投資者返還 12 億美元。

Inclusive of our 2023 spend, we have repurchased almost half of the 2013 shares outstanding since initiating the program over a decade ago. By remaining consistent in our business practices and making market responsive adjustments where needed, we reported another year of exceptional financial results. I want to thank the entire PulteGroup team for their tireless efforts in support of delivering superior homes and experiences to our homebuyers while providing outstanding financial returns to our investors.

自十多年前啟動該計劃以來，包括我們 2023 年的支出在內，我們已經回購了近一半的 2013 年已發行股票。透過保持業務實踐的一致性並根據需要進行市場響應調整，我們又取得了出色的財務業績。我要感謝整個 PulteGroup 團隊的不懈努力，為我們的購屋者提供卓越的住宅和體驗，同時為我們的投資者提供卓越的財務回報。

Consistent with the broader housing market, we saw home buying demand being negatively impacted during the early part of the fourth quarter as 30-year mortgage rates increased toward their 2023 peak of 8%. We then saw a buyer sentiment and demand improved as mortgage rates finally rolled over, ultimately dropping more than 100 basis points as we move through November and December. The decline in rates helped drive our December net new orders and absorption pace to be the highest month in the quarter.

與更廣泛的房地產市場一致，我們看到第四季初期購屋需求受到負面影響，因為 30 年期抵押貸款利率升至 2023 年 8% 的高峰。隨後，隨著抵押貸款利率最終回滾，我們看到買家情緒和需求有所改善，並在 11 月和 12 月期間最終下降了 100 個基點以上。利率下降幫助我們 12 月的淨新訂單和吸收速度成為本季最高的月份。

The increased home buying activity in December was an important driver of the 57% increase in our Q4 net new orders and demonstrates the desire for homeownership remains high across all buyer groups. It remains our view that the long-term outlook for new home construction is extremely positive. A structural shortage of housing caused by years of underbuilding has only been exacerbated by a lack of supply -- lack of resale inventory as the owners are financially and/or emotionally locked into their low-rate mortgages.

12 月購屋活動的增加是我們第四季淨新訂單成長 57% 的重要推動力，並表明所有買家群體對購屋的渴望仍然很高。我們仍然認為新住宅建設的長期前景非常樂觀。多年來建設不足造成的住房結構性短缺只會因供應不足而加劇——缺乏轉售庫存，因為業主在經濟和/或情感上被鎖定在低利率抵押貸款上。

While the lack of existing home inventory will resolve itself over time, we believe that land entitlement and labor availability challenges mean it will be difficult to correct for the many years of underbuilding in this country. Given our constructive views on the outlook for housing demand, we are investing in our operations with the goal of growing unit volumes by 5% to 10% annually. Our decision to walk away from option lots as interest rates increased in 2022 will impact our community openings in 2024, leading to our growth this year being closer to the lower end of this range as we expect closings of approximately 30,000 homes in 2024.

雖然現有房屋庫存不足的問題將隨著時間的推移而自行解決，但我們認為，土地權利和勞動力供應方面的挑戰意味著該國多年來的建設不足將難以糾正。鑑於我們對住房需求前景的建設性看法，我們正在對我們的業務進行投資，目標是使單位數量每年增長 5% 至 10%。隨著 2022 年利率上升，我們決定放棄選擇地段，這將影響我們 2024 年的社區開放，導致我們今年的增長接近該範圍的下限，因為我們預計 2024 年將關閉約 30,000 套房屋。

For those of you who have followed PulteGroup's story for the past few years, you know it's never been about growth for growth's sake. Our focus is always on investing in our business to build shareholder value so our objective is to grow our volumes while maintaining high returns on equity. To accomplish this, we must continue to intelligently invest in high-quality and high-returning projects while continuing to invest in our own assets through the ongoing repurchase of our stock.

對於過去幾年關注 PulteGroup 故事的人來說，您知道這從來都不是為了成長而成長。我們的重點始終是投資於我們的業務以創造股東價值，因此我們的目標是在保持高股本回報率的同時增加我們的銷售量。為了實現這一目標，我們必須繼續明智地投資於高品質、高回報的項目，同時透過持續回購股票繼續投資於我們自己的資產。

As we have demonstrated for much of the past decade, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flows that will allow us to fund our business investment, pay our dividend and return excess capital to our shareholders, all while maintaining our balance sheet strength and flexibility. Our expectation of continued financial success is reflected in this morning's announcement that our Board approved a $1.5 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization.

正如我們在過去十年的大部分時間所證明的那樣，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的現金流，這將使我們能夠為我們的業務投資提供資金、支付股息並向股東返還多餘資本，同時保持我們的資產負債表實力和靈活性。我們對持續財務成功的期望反映在今天上午的公告中，即我們的董事會批准將我們的股票回購授權增加 15 億美元。

With many forecasting interest rates to fall, the economy to stay relatively healthy and conditions in the job market to remain favorable, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic about housing demand in the coming years. Let me now turn over the call to Bob for a review of our fourth quarter results. Bob?

由於許多人預測利率將下降，經濟將保持相對健康，就業市場狀況將保持有利，因此我們當然有理由對未來幾年的住房需求感到樂觀。現在讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，以審查我們第四季度的業績。鮑伯？

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. As Ryan mentioned in his comments, market conditions changed meaningfully as the fourth quarter progressed and as mortgage rates begin to fall. Our reported financial results for the period were influenced by these evolving market dynamics, so I'll note any important areas of impact in my prepared remarks.

謝謝瑞安，早安。正如瑞安在評論中提到的那樣，隨著第四季度的進展和抵押貸款利率開始下降，市場狀況發生了有意義的變化。我們報告的這段時期的財務表現受到這些不斷變化的市場動態的影響，因此我將在我準備的發言中註明任何重要的影響領域。

Wholesale revenues in the fourth quarter were $4.2 billion compared with $5 billion in the prior year. Our lower home sale revenues for the period primarily reflects a 14% decrease in closings to 7,615 homes, along with a 2% decrease in our average sales price to $547,000. I would highlight that our fourth quarter closings came in about 5% below our previous guide as sales early in the quarter were negatively impacted by higher mortgage rates and the general softening in overall buyer demand.

第四季的批發收入為 42 億美元，而去年同期為 50 億美元。我們這段期間的房屋銷售收入下降主要反映了房屋成交量下降了 14%，至 7,615 套，同時平均銷售價格下降了 2%，至 547,000 美元。我要強調的是，我們第四季的成交量比之前的指導值低了約 5%，因為本季初的銷售受到抵押貸款利率上升和整體買家需求普遍疲軟的負面影響。

As Ryan noted, online demand accelerated in the back half of the quarter, but sales, particularly sales of finished spec homes that would close in the quarter finished below our assumptions. We could have captured incremental sales and closing value by offering higher incentives and we didn't see that as a worthwhile trade-off. Given that buyer trends have remained positive in January, I think we made the right choices as we have inventory available to meet the stronger demand.

正如瑞安指出的那樣，線上需求在本季後半段加速，但銷售量，特別是本季將關閉的成品規格住宅的銷售量最終低於我們的假設。我們本可以透過提供更高的激勵措施來獲得增量銷售和成交價值，但我們認為這不是一個值得的權衡。鑑於一月份買家趨勢保持積極，我認為我們做出了正確的選擇，因為我們有庫存可以滿足更強勁的需求。

Our mix of closings in the quarter were comprised of 40% first-time, 36% move-up and 24% active-adult which is in alignment with our stated goal for the buyer mix for our business. In the fourth quarter of '22, closings were 36% first-time, 39% move-up and 25% active-adult. Our average community count for the fourth quarter was 919, which represents an 8% increase over last year's fourth quarter average of 850 communities and was in line with our prior guidance.

我們本季的成交組合包括 40% 的首次成交、36% 的升級成交和 24% 的活躍成人成交，這與我們為業務買家組合設定的既定目標一致。 2022 年第四季，首次成交率為 36%，後續成交率為 39%，成人成交率為 25%。我們第四季的平均社群數量為 919 個，比去年第四季的平均 850 個社群增加了 8%，與我們先前的指導一致。

Looking at order activity in the quarter, our net new orders increased 57% over last year to 6,214 homes. The large increase over last year reflects both improved demand in 2023, as well as the extremely difficult operating environment in the fourth quarter of 2022. As discussed previously, demand conditions grew increasingly difficult early in the fourth quarter this year as mortgage rates climbed to 8%. But we experienced a notable improvement in buying activity as rates decreased over the back half of the quarter. On a sequential basis, our absorption pace improved from November to December, and we would attribute much of this improvement to the decline in interest rates.

從本季的訂單活動來看，我們的淨新訂單比去年增加了 57%，達到 6,214 套。較去年大幅成長既反映了2023 年需求的改善，也反映了2022 年第四季極其困難的經營環境。如前所述，隨著抵押貸款利率攀升至8，今年第四季初需求狀況變得越來越困難。 %。但隨著本季後半段利率下降，我們的購買活動顯著改善。從環比來看，我們的吸收速度從 11 月到 12 月有所改善，我們將這種改善很大程度歸因於利率的下降。

Along with stronger demand conditions, the year-over-year increase in fourth quarter net new orders benefited from a decrease in cancellation rate. In the most recent quarter, cancellations as a percentage of beginning period backlog fell to 9%, down from 11% in the comparable prior year period.

隨著需求狀況走強，第四季淨新訂單年增得益於取消率的下降。在最近一個季度，取消訂單佔期初積壓訂單的百分比下降至 9%，低於去年同期的 11%。

Looking at our order activity by buyer groups, fourth quarter net new orders increased 70% for first-time buyers, 78% for move-up buyers and 15% for active-adult buyers. Our order numbers indicate that demand improved across all buyer groups, which is a very positive dynamic when assessing potential housing demand in 2024.

從買家群體的訂單活動來看，第四季度首次買家的淨新訂單增長了 70%，升級買家的淨新訂單增長了 78%，活躍的成年買家增長了 15%。我們的訂單數據表明，所有買家群體的需求均有所改善，這在評估 2024 年潛在住房需求時是一個非常積極的動態。

As a result of our sales and closings activity, our quarter end backlog was 12,146 homes, which is effectively flat with last year. Reflective of the increased mix of first-time buyers and their lower average sales prices, our ending backlog value declined slightly to $7.3 billion.

由於我們的銷售和成交活動，季度末積壓房屋數量為 12,146 套，實際上與去年持平。由於首次購屋者數量的增加及其平均銷售價格的降低，我們的期末積壓訂單價值略有下降至 73 億美元。

Inclusive of the 7,128 homes we started in the fourth quarter, we ended the year with 16,889 homes in production. 44% of our production is spec, including 1,263 finished specs which puts us in a strong position to meet buyer demand as we head into the spring selling season. By the end of the fourth quarter, our construction cycle time was down to 130 days which is a sequential improvement of about 2 weeks from the end of the third quarter. Going forward, we continue to target getting our cycle time down to 100 days or below by the end of the year.

包括我們在第四季度開工的 7,128 套住宅在內，我們在年底生產了 16,889 套住宅。我們生產的 44% 是規格產品，包括 1,263 種成品規格，這使我們能夠在進入春季銷售季節時滿足買家需求。到第四季末，我們的施工週期已縮短至 130 天，比第三季末連續改善約兩週。展望未來，我們繼續致力於在年底前將週期時間縮短至 100 天或以下。

Based on our production pipeline, we expect closings in the first quarter of 2024 to be between 6,200 and 6,600 homes. And given our units under production, we expect full year deliveries to grow by 5% to 30,000 homes. We currently expect the average sales price of closings to remain in the range of $540,000 to $550,000 for the first quarter and the full year of 2024 which is consistent with our fourth quarter pricing. At the midpoint, this would imply price stability over the course of the year.

根據我們的生產管道，我們預計 2024 年第一季的成交量將在 6,200 至 6,600 套之間。鑑於我們正在生產的單位，我們預計全年交付量將增加 5%，達到 30,000 套房屋。我們目前預計 2024 年第一季和全年的成交平均售價將保持在 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元之間，這與我們第四季度的定價一致。在中點，這意味著全年價格穩定。

Our fourth quarter gross margin was 28.9%, which is down approximately 50 basis points from both the fourth quarter of last year and the third quarter of this year but likely remains the industry leader among the big builders. As with the entire year, our fourth quarter margins reflect higher incentive and input costs. Incentives, which primarily impact revenues, increased 50 basis points sequentially from the third quarter to 6.5%.

我們第四季的毛利率為28.9%，比去年第四季和今年第三季下降了約50個基點，但可能仍然是大型建築商中的行業領導者。與全年一樣，我們第四季度的利潤率反映了更高的激勵和投入成本。主要影響收入的激勵措施比第三季環比增加了 50 個基點，達到 6.5%。

On the cost side, lower lumber prices offset inflation and other material and labor, but higher land and land development costs impacted margins in the period. Given my prior comments that we expect pricing to be flat in 2024, we anticipate that land and house cost inflation will result in gross margins to be in the range of 28% to 28.5% for each quarter during the year.

在成本方面，較低的木材價格抵消了通貨膨脹以及其他材料和勞動力的影響，但較高的土地和土地開發成本影響了該時期的利潤率。鑑於我先前的評論，我們預計 2024 年定價將持平，我們預計土地和房屋成本通膨將導致年內每季的毛利率在 28% 至 28.5% 之間。

We reported fourth quarter SG&A expense of $308 million or 7.4% of home sale revenues compared with prior year SG&A expense of $351 million or 7.1%. The 30 basis point drop in overhead leverage can be attributed to the lower closings and revenues realized in the quarter versus the prior year. It should be noted that we reported $65 million of pretax insurance benefits in the fourth quarters of both 2023 and 2022.

我們報告第四季的銷售、管理及行政費用為 3.08 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 7.4%，而上年度的銷售、管理及行政費用為 3.51 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 7.1%。間接費用槓桿下降 30 個基點可歸因於本季的結帳額和實現的收入較上年同期下降。值得注意的是，我們在 2023 年和 2022 年第四季報告了 6,500 萬美元的稅前保險福利。

Based on anticipated closing volumes, we expect SG&A expense for the full year of 2024 to be in the range of 9.2% to 9.5% of home sale revenues. Given our typical seasonality of closings, we expect SG&A expense in the first quarter to be approximately 10% of home sale revenues, with overhead leverage improving as we move through the remaining quarters of the year.

根據預期成交量，我們預計 2024 年全年的銷售、管理及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 9.2% 至 9.5%。鑑於我們典型的成交季節性，我們預計第一季的銷售、管理及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 10% 左右，隨著今年剩餘季度的推進，管理費用槓桿率將有所改善。

For the fourth quarter, our financial services operations reported pretax income of $44 million, which is up from $24 million last year. The improvement in pretax income reflects more favorable market conditions across our financial services platform, coupled with higher capture rates, including an increase to 85%, up from 75% last year in our mortgage operations.

第四季度，我們的金融服務業務稅前收入為 4,400 萬美元，高於去年的 2,400 萬美元。稅前收入的改善反映了我們金融服務平台更有利的市場條件，以及更高的捕獲率，包括抵押貸款業務的捕獲率從去年的 75% 增加到 85%。

Our reported pretax income for the most recent quarter was [$947 million] compared with prior year pretax income of [$1.2 billion] In the period, we recorded a tax expense of $236 million or an effective tax rate of 24.9%. Projecting ahead to 2024 we expect our full year tax rate to be in the range of 24% to 24.5%.

我們報告的最近一個季度的稅前收入為[9.47 億美元]，而上一年的稅前收入為[12 億美元]。在此期間，我們記錄的稅費為2.36 億美元，有效稅率為24.9 %。展望 2024 年，我們預計全年稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間。

Looking at the bottom line, our reported fourth quarter results showed net income of $711 million or $3.28 per share. In the comparable prior year period, we reported net income of $882 million or $3.85 per share. For the full year of 2023, we reported net income of $2.6 billion and a record earnings of $11.72 per share. Reflective of our strong operating results, in 2023, we generated cash flows from operations of $2.2 billion.

從底線來看，我們報告的第四季業績顯示淨利潤為 7.11 億美元，即每股 3.28 美元。去年同期，我們報告淨利潤為 8.82 億美元，即每股 3.85 美元。 2023 年全年，我們的淨利潤為 26 億美元，每股收益創紀錄的 11.72 美元。 2023 年，我們的營運現金流達到 22 億美元，反映出我們強勁的經營績效。

Given our current expectations for operating and financial results, along with our plans to increase land investments of $5 billion in the coming year, we expect 2024 cash flows from operations to be approximately $1.8 billion.

鑑於我們目前對營運和財務表現的預期，以及我們計劃在來年增加 50 億美元的土地投資，我們預計 2024 年的營運現金流約為 18 億美元。

Turning to our investment and capital allocation activities. We invested $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development in the fourth quarter, of which 59% was for development of our existing land assets. For the year, our land investment totaled $4.3 billion, of which 59% was for development. Given our constructive views on near and longer-term housing dynamics, as noted, our plan is to increase our land spend to approximately $5 billion in 2024. We would again anticipate a roughly 60-40 split between development and land acquisition. This increase in investment is consistent with Ryan's earlier comments regarding positioning the business to routinely grow future delivery volumes by 5% to 10% per year.

轉向我們的投資和資本配置活動。第四季我們投資了13億美元用於土地收購和開發，其中59%用於現有土地資產的開發。今年，我們的土地投資總額為43億美元，其中59%用於開發。如上所述，鑑於我們對近期和長期住房動態的建設性看法，我們的計劃是到2024 年將土地支出增加到約50 億美元。我們再次預計開發和土地收購之間的比例約為60-40 。此次投資的增加與 Ryan 早些時候關於將業務定位為未來交付量每年常規增長 5% 至 10% 的評論一致。

Inclusive of our fourth quarter investments, we ended 2023 with 223,000 lots under control, which is an increase of 5% over the prior year. I would highlight that on a year-over-year basis, we lowered our owned lot count by 4,000 lots, while increasing our lots under option by roughly 16,000 lots. As a result, our percentage of lots under option increased to 53%, up from 48% last year. There's still a lot of runway ahead of us to achieve our goal of 70% optioned lots, but we're moving in the right direction.

包括第四季度的投資在內，我們在 2023 年末控制了 223,000 塊地塊，比前一年增加了 5%。我要強調的是，與去年同期相比，我們所擁有的地塊數量減少了 4,000 手，同時我們的期權地塊數量增加了約 16,000 手。結果，我們的選擇權比例從去年的 48% 增加到了 53%。要實現 70% 可選地塊的目標，我們還有很長的路要走，但我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。

Based on the investments we've made and our anticipated community openings and closings of 2024, we expect our average community count in 2024 to be up 3% to 5% in each quarter as compared to the comparable prior year period. Consistent with our stated capital allocation priorities, we continue to return capital to shareholders in 2023.

根據我們所做的投資以及預計 2024 年社區開業和關閉的情況，我們預計 2024 年每個季度的平均社區數量將比去年同期增長 3% 至 5%。根據我們既定的資本配置優先事項，我們將繼續在 2023 年向股東返還資本。

To that end, we paid out $142 million in dividends and have increased our dividend per share by 25% starting in the first quarter of 2024. We also repurchased 13.8 million common shares at a cost of $1 billion or an average price of $72.50 per share, which included $300 million of repurchases at an average price of $83.03 per share in the fourth quarter. With the 13.8 million shares acquired in '23, we have repurchased approximately half of the shares outstanding at the time we initiated the program back in 2013. As we repurchased these shares at an average cost of $32.16 per share, we believe it's been a great investment for our shareholders.

為此，我們支付了1.42 億美元的股息，並從2024 年第一季開始將每股股息增加了25%。我們還以10 億美元的成本或每股72.50 美元的平均價格回購了1,380 萬股普通股。其中包括第四季平均價格為每股 83.03 美元的 3 億美元回購。憑藉23 年收購的1,380 萬股股票，我們已經回購了2013 年啟動該計劃時約一半的已發行股票。由於我們以每股32.16 美元的平均成本回購了這些股票，我們相信這是一次偉大的投資。為我們股東的投資。

In addition to buying our stock in the fourth quarter, we took advantage of market conditions by using $35 million of cash on hand to pay down a portion of our debt. For all of 2023, we retired $101 million of our 2026 and 2027 senior notes through open market transactions, helping to lower our quarter end debt to capital ratio to 15.9%, down 280 basis points from last year. Adjusting for the $1.8 billion of cash on our balance sheet, we ended the year with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 1.1%. Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

除了在第四季度購買股票外，我們還利用市場狀況，動用了 3500 萬美元的手頭現金來償還部分債務。 2023 年全年，我們透過公開市場交易償還了 1.01 億美元的 2026 年和 2027 年優先票據，幫助將季末債務資本比率降至 15.9%，比去年下降 280 個基點。調整資產負債表上的 18 億美元現金後，我們年底的淨負債與資本比率為 1.1%。現在讓我把電話轉回瑞安，徵求一些最後的意見。

Thanks, Bob. Successfully navigating our business through the past 12 months of rising interest rates has been challenging. The same could be said about the past 24, 36 and 48 month periods as we battle through COVID and the global collapse in supply chains. I am extremely proud of how our entire team responded to these events and the exceptional operating and financial results PulteGroup has delivered over an unprecedented period.

謝謝，鮑伯。成功地引導我們的業務度過過去 12 個月不斷上升的利率充滿挑戰。當我們與新冠病毒和全球供應鏈崩潰作鬥爭時，過去 24、36 和 48 個月的時間也可以這樣說。我對我們整個團隊如何應對這些事件以及 PulteGroup 在前所未有的時期內取得的卓越營運和財務表現感到非常自豪。

Looking back over the 5-year period of 2019 to the just recently completed 2023, we grew volumes 5% annually and delivered just under 135,000 homes. To support our growth during this period and for future years, we invested almost $19 billion in cumulative land acquisition and development spend.

回顧 2019 年到剛結束的 2023 年的 5 年時間，我們的銷量每年增長 5%，交付了近 135,000 套房屋。為了支持我們在此期間和未來幾年的成長，我們累計投資了近 190 億美元的土地收購和開發支出。

Through our disciplined land investment, operational focus and organizational expertise, we capitalized on market conditions to grow earnings per share over this period at a compounded annual growth rate of 34%, while delivering an average annual return on equity of just over 26%. It's this type of strong financial performance during an extended period of market volatility that has prompted increased discussion about the need to reconsider how the large homebuilders are valued. I think that if you want to be valued differently, you must demonstrate a fundamental change in how you operate the business and the results you deliver. Not just for a year or 2, but over an extended period of time.

透過嚴格的土地投資、營運重點和組織專業知識，我們利用市場條件，在此期間以 34% 的複合年增長率增長每股收益，同時實現略高於 26% 的年平均股本回報率。正是這種在長期市場波動期間強勁的財務表現引發了更多關於是否需要重新考慮大型住宅建築商估值的討論。我認為，如果你想獲得不同的重視，你必須在經營業務和交付成果方面展現出根本性的改變。不只是一年或兩年，而是很長一段時間。

What's different about the past 5 years is that while investing $19 billion into our operation, we also generated almost $7 billion in net cash flow from operations during the sustained period of growth. In fact, we recorded only 1 year of negative cash flow from operations since shifting our focus in 2012 from just top line growth to driving high returns over the housing cycle. We paid off $1.1 billion of debt, while cutting our leverage by more than half to end 2023 with a debt-to-capital ratio of 15.9% and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 1.1%. And we returned $4 billion to shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends. I'd add that the reality is we've been operating our business in just this way for really the past 10 years.

過去5年的不同之處在於，在持續成長期間，我們在營運中投資了190億美元，同時也產生了近70億美元的營運淨現金流。事實上，自 2012 年將重點從營收成長轉向推動房地產週期的高回報以來，我們僅在一年內出現了營運現金流負值。到 2023 年底，我們償還了 11 億美元的債務，同時將槓桿率削減了一半以上，債務與資本比率為 15.9%，淨債務與資本比率為 1.1%。我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 40 億美元。我想補充一點，現實情況是，過去 10 年來我們一直都是以這種方式經營我們的業務。

I know stocks reflect performance. So I believe that if we can continue to both grow our business and deliver ROE that remains among the industry leaders, while generating positive cash flow and maintaining a low-risk profile that our stock price and shareholders will ultimately be rewarded. Let me now turn the call back to Jim Zeumer.

我知道股票反映業績。因此，我相信，如果我們能夠繼續發展業務並實現保持行業領先地位的股本回報率，同時產生正現金流並保持低風險狀況，那麼我們的股價和股東最終將獲得回報。現在讓我把電話轉回吉姆·祖默。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions. So [Mandeep], if you would explain the process, we'll get started.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備開始提問。所以[Mandeep]，如果你能解釋一下這個過程，我們就開始吧。

The floor is now open for your questions. (Operator Instructions). We'll now take a moment to compile our roster. Our first question comes from the line of Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

現在請大家提問。 （操作員說明）。我們現在需要一些時間來編制我們的名單。我們的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

I wanted to ask a little bit more about January. Could you maybe expand on how business has been and what I'm really interested in is, have you seen enough traffic or sales rates to start to think about more broadly pulling incentives down or even starting to raise base across the footprint?

我想多問一些關於一月的事情。您能否詳細介紹一下業務的發展情況，我真正感興趣的是，您是否看到了足夠的流量或銷售率，以開始考慮更廣泛地降低激勵措施，甚至開始提高整個足跡的基礎？

Carl, so Bob highlighted in the prepared remarks that -- specifically the Q4, October, November were really below expectations, and it was driven by high rates. We had a great December, highest month in the quarter in terms of absolute sales and absorption per community. So that was certainly an anomaly for typical December seasonal patterns. And the strength has really continued into January, Carl.

卡爾、鮑伯在準備好的演講中強調，特別是第四季、10 月和 11 月的數據確實低於預期，而且是由高利率推動的。我們度過了一個很棒的 12 月，就每個社區的絕對銷售額和吸收率而言，這是本季度最高的月份。因此，對於典型的 12 月季節性模式來說，這肯定是一個反常現象。卡爾，這種勢頭確實持續到了一月。

So we're feeling pretty good about how the year is starting. In terms of kind of where it sets us up for reduced discounts, increased prices, we're going to watch it closely. And I think we've demonstrated through past behavior that we're always looking to find the sweet spot between pace and price. It won't come as a surprise to you, Carl, that affordability with the buyers remains a challenge. And so I think we're going to have to be thoughtful about what we do on both the incentive and the price increase front. But we're feeling pretty good about how the year started.

所以我們對今年的開局感覺非常好。就它為我們提供的減少折扣、提高價格的方式而言，我們將密切關注。我認為我們已經透過過去的行為證明了我們一直在尋找速度和價格之間的最佳平衡。卡爾，買家的承受能力仍然是一個挑戰，這對你來說並不奇怪。因此，我認為我們必須仔細考慮我們在激勵和價格上漲方面所做的事情。但我們對今年的開局感覺非常好。

All right. And then let me ask a couple of questions just on move-up. Obviously, the entry-level business has been strong for volumes. Move-up a number of your peers have kind of shifted some of their investments more towards the low end that's been going on for quite some time. Can you talk a little bit about how that -- how you look at that business this year? Is there any alteration in mix in terms of communities and whether or not maybe your can rate in that business is improving faster than the other businesses? We're trying to see if the existing housing markets unlocking enough that you can start to see even more strength in that particular segment.

好的。然後讓我問幾個關於升級的問題。顯然，入門級業務的銷量一直強勁。許多同行已經將他們的一些投資更多地轉向低端，這種情況已經持續了相當長一段時間了。您能談談您如何看待今年的業務嗎？社群方面的組合是否有任何變化，以及您對該業務的評價是否比其他業務改善得更快？我們正在嘗試看看現有的房地產市場是否足夠開放，以至於您可以開始看到該特定領域的更大實力。

Yes. Carl, our move-up store business performed incredibly well in the quarter. We had -- on a year-over-year basis, the growth was north of 70%. So I think that segment performed very well. The margins out of our move-up as well as our Del Webb business continue to be some of our best gross margins. So we're seeing real financial strength there also. And then in terms of kind of community mix for Carl, we're kind of right in line with where our long-term strategic targets are in terms of kind of that part of our business being about 35% of our overall mix. So we feel pretty good about where that business is positioned.

是的。卡爾，我們的升級商店業務在本季表現非常出色。我們的年成長超過 70%。所以我認為該部分錶現非常好。我們的升級以及德爾韋伯業務的利潤率仍然是我們毛利率最高的部分。所以我們也看到了那裡真正的財務實力。然後就 Carl 的社群組合而言，我們的業務部分約佔整體組合的 35%，這與我們的長期策略目標是一致的。因此，我們對該業務的定位非常滿意。

Yes. Just maybe another point of clarification that they not only were the sales strong. It was our strongest absorptions on a same-store basis. So that consumer actually has performed well to Ryan's point, strong margins and absorption.

是的。也許這只是另一個澄清點，即它們不僅銷量強勁。這是我們同店中吸收最強烈的。因此，消費者實際上已經按照瑞安的觀點表現良好，利潤率和吸收率都很高。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬修·布利（Matthew Bouley）。

Question on the high-level growth algorithm that you gave, Ryan, around the kind of 5% to 10% growth annually. You're talking to the low end of that this year because you walked away from some deals in 2022. So my question is, is this kind of sort of a 1-year whole, so to speak, and do you have the lands that you need today to kind of get back to your algorithm by 2025? Or how should we think about getting to that level of growth going forward?

Ryan，關於您提出的高階成長演算法的問題，大約是每年 5% 到 10% 的成長。你說的是今年的低端，因為你放棄了 2022 年的一些交易。所以我的問題是，可以這麼說，這是一個為期 1 年的整體嗎？你今天需要在2025 年之前恢復你的演算法嗎？或者我們應該如何考慮未來達到這樣的成長水準？

Matt, thanks for the question. We feel really good about how we position the land pipeline. We've been investing for growth for a number of years. And we've been trying to do it in a very responsible way specific to having less owned and more optioned land. The fact that over the last 15 months, we've made significant headway with our land banking platform has helped with that.

馬特，謝謝你的提問。我們對陸地管道的定位非常滿意。多年來，我們一直致力於成長投資。我們一直在努力以一種非常負責任的方式做到這一點，特別是擁有更少的土地和更多的選擇土地。事實上，在過去 15 個月裡，我們的土地儲備平台取得了重大進展，這對此有所幫助。

So we really like the number of lots that we have under control at 225,000 plus or minus, and we like the ownership structure or the way that we've controlled those lands. We think it's a really capital-efficient structure. Specific to your growth target number, yes, we're going to be at the lower end for 2024. Beyond that, we feel that we've got -- we've got the right structure to kind of be in that range for future periods.

因此，我們真的很喜歡我們所控制的 225,000 塊左右的地塊數量，而且我們喜歡所有權結構或我們控制這些土地的方式。我們認為這是一個真正具有資本效率的結構。具體到您的成長目標數字，是的，我們將在 2024 年處於較低水平。除此之外，我們認為我們已經擁有正確的結構，可以在未來處於該範圍內期間。

Yes. Maybe I'd add to that. The land for '25 is under contract and probably in development right now. And so we have line of sight to '24, '25. You get out to '26, we're still working through some of that. But we've -- you can see from the approvals that we did in this most recent quarter or for the year, 40,000 lots. No issues from our perspective in terms of lining up that type of growth rate.

是的。也許我會補充一點。 '25 的土地已簽訂合同，目前可能正在開發中。所以我們的視線已經到了「24」、「25」。到了 26 年，我們仍在解決其中的一些問題。但我們——你可以從我們最近一個季度或今年的批准中看到，有 40,000 批。從我們的角度來看，這種成長率沒有任何問題。

Got it. Okay. That's super helpful. Second one, back to the gross margin question. I think you're guiding '24 margins to be down roughly 70 basis points from where you exited the fourth quarter? I think I heard you say, Bob, that it's kind of flat pricing and then you've got some headwinds in land, labor and materials. I'm just curious if you can kind of unpack that a little bit and maybe specifically focus on the land side. How are you kind of thinking about those headwinds to the margin? And how does that kind of play into that guide in '24?

知道了。好的。這非常有幫助。第二個，回到毛利率問題。我認為您將 24 年利潤率指導為比第四季結束時下降約 70 個基點？鮑勃，我想我聽到你說，這是一種統一定價，然後你在土地、勞動力和材料方面遇到了一些阻力。我只是好奇你是否可以稍微解開一下這個問題，也許特別關注陸地方面。您如何看待邊緣的這些逆風？這對 24 世紀的指南有何影響？

Yes. Fair question. And I think we laid it out this way to try and answer that question, I'll give you a little more color. We see pricing flat during the year. Now you might see different pricing at different consumer groups. The first time is the most affordability challenge. That's where we saw actually the biggest decline in the current quarter, but we think pricing is relatively flat through '24. We see modest, call it, 2% to 4% house construction cost increases, kind of mid- to upper single-digit land increases, which is what we've experienced this year.

是的。公平的問題。我認為我們這樣佈局是為了嘗試回答這個問題，我會給你更多的色彩。我們認為今年的定價持平。現在，您可能會看到不同消費群體的定價不同。第一次是最能承受能力的挑戰。這實際上是我們本季跌幅最大的地方，但我們認為整個 24 年定價相對持平。我們看到房屋建設成本適度增加 2% 到 4%，土地增加幅度為個位數中到高，這正是我們今年所經歷的。

And so when you kind of mix that all together, we -- the one other point I guess I'd offer to clarify is, we're assuming incentive loads stay about the same at the 6.5% that we saw in this quarter. So when you marry that all up together, a little bit of a decline year-over-year, but still 28% to 28.5%, pretty strong margin.

因此，當你將所有這些混合在一起時，我想我想澄清的另一點是，我們假設激勵負荷與本季度我們看到的 6.5% 保持大致相同。因此，當你將所有這些結合在一起時，同比略有下降，但仍為 28% 至 28.5%，利潤率相當強勁。

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

The first one, just maybe talking about January again, curious how orders looked versus normal seasonality, if you will. I think first quarter absorptions typically rise, call it, 40% to 45% sequentially. Is there anything that would preclude that from happening in your opinion, outside of rates maybe in the first quarter of this year?

第一個，也許只是再次談論一月份，如果你願意的話，好奇訂單與正常季節性的情況如何。我認為第一季的吸收量通常會比上一季成長 40% 至 45%。您認為，除了今年第一季的利率之外，還有什麼可以阻止這種情況發生嗎？

Yes, John, we didn't give a specific increase out of December. We kept more of our commentary around the qualitative side of things, which I'd reiterate, we're very pleased with how things are performing in January, and we'd expect that strength to continue. So we continue to be in a situation where there's low supply, affordability has definitely gotten better. You heard Bob's comment about kind of what we've assumed with our incentive load.

是的，約翰，我們沒有給出 12 月的具體成長。我們對事情的定性方面保留了更多評論，我重申這一點，我們對一月份的表現非常滿意，我們希望這種勢頭能夠持續下去。因此，我們仍然處於供應不足的情況，但負擔能力肯定有所改善。您聽到了鮑勃關於我們對激勵負載的假設的評論。

So yes, I'd expect us to have a strong Q1. The one thing -- other thing I'd offer that's probably of note is we're starting to see some real signs of [lift] in our Western markets. Those have been -- that's been a part of the country that was slow for the majority of kind of 2022 and most all of 2023. But in the last 30 to 45 days, we're really starting to see those markets pick up, which is a welcomed outcome.

所以是的，我希望我們有一個強勁的第一季。我要提供的另一件事可能值得注意的是，我們開始在西方市場看到一些真正的[提升]跡象。這些是全國 2022 年大部分時間和 2023 年大部分時間成長緩慢的部分。但在過去 30 到 45 天內，我們確實開始看到這些市場回升，這是一個值得歡迎的結果。

Makes sense. And then on the share buyback, that was encouraging to see, I think, could be a good driver of returns as we move forward here. Over the past few years, I think you guys have done about $1 billion per year, the authorization now is closer to $1.8 billion. How are you thinking about 2024 buybacks relative to the past few years? I mean, should we expect north of $1 billion?

說得通。然後，在股票回購方面，我認為，隨著我們在此前進，這可能會成為回報的良好推動力，這令人鼓舞。過去幾年，我想你們每年做了大約10億美元，現在的授權接近18億美元。與過去幾年相比，您如何看待 2024 年的回購？我的意思是，我們的預期應該超過 10 億美元嗎？

Honestly, I'm going to defer. We typically do -- we'll report the news on that. I think you highlight -- we've done about $1 billion a year in the last couple of years. We have $1.8 billion in cash. We have offered that we project about $1.8 billion of cash flow from operations in the current year. So our capital allocation priorities don't change.

老實說，我打算推遲。我們通常會這樣做——我們會報道這方面的新聞。我想你強調了——在過去的幾年裡，我們每年的銷售額約為 10 億美元。我們有 18 億美元現金。我們預計今年的營運現金流約為 18 億美元。所以我們的資本配置優先事項不會改變。

We've said we're going to increase our land investment to $5 billion. That's up about 16% year-over-year. We increased our dividend, 25%. That's not a huge cash element, but still, I think, reflective of our confidence in the business. We do have $1.8 billion of authorization. And like I said, we'll report the news. You saw this year we bought back $100 million of our notes because it was attractive. The rate environment has made that a little less attractive, but we always look at liability management as part of the equation. So really no change to our capital allocation priorities.

我們說過要把土地投資增加到50億美元。年增約 16%。我們增加了股利 25%。這並不是一個巨大的現金元素，但我認為，仍然反映了我們對業務的信心。我們確實有 18 億美元的授權。就像我說的，我們會報道這個消息。你看，今年我們回購了 1 億美元的票據，因為它很有吸引力。利率環境使得這一點的吸引力有所下降，但我們始終將負債管理視為等式的一部分。所以我們的資本配置優先事項確實沒有改變。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

First question relates to your land on the balance sheet. I think that cash flow guide seems to suggest, at least for my modeling, a modest rise in your own lot count while you keep a years supply of owned lots fairly stable. I was wondering if that's right and if there's any opportunity or desire to actually reduce your land holdings in years further.

第一個問題與資產負債表上的土地有關。我認為現金流量指南似乎表明，至少對於我的模型而言，您自己的地塊數量會適度增加，同時保持自有地塊的年度供應相當穩定。我想知道這是否正確，以及是否有任何機會或願望在未來幾年內實際減少您的土地持有量。

Yes, Stephen. So a couple of things there. We are increasing our land spend in 2024 from $4.3 billion to $5 billion. Our mix of developed spend versus land acquisition spend will continue to probably be about 60% development, 40% land acq. And then our long-term desire is to have 70% of our land controlled via option. We highlighted in the prepared remarks this year, we moved that 48% option to 53% controlled via option.

是的，史蒂芬。有幾件事。到 2024 年，我們將把土地支出從 43 億美元增加到 50 億美元。我們的開發支出與土地收購支出的組合可能仍將是約 60% 的開發支出、40% 的土地收購支出。然後我們的長期願望是透過選擇權控制我們70%的土地。我們在今年準備好的發言中強調，我們將透過選擇權控制的 48% 選擇權調整為 53%。

So we're -- I think both in -- we demonstrated through results over the past number of years as well as kind of articulated long-term goals. We want to be land lighter. We're going to continue to do it the right way all with an eye toward delivering a lower risk model that's very capital efficient as well.

因此，我們——我認為兩者都是——我們透過過去幾年的成果以及明確的長期目標證明了這一點。我們希望讓土地變得更輕。我們將繼續以正確的方式去做，並專注於提供一個風險較低且資本效率很高的模型。

Well, I guess, Ryan, I mean, you gave most of that information in your opening remarks, so I appreciate that. But I guess the gist of my question, trying to incrementally understand what your plans are a little bit more is to try to understand the actual amount of owned lots. Are you looking to get to your 70% option versus owned mix by keeping your owned lot count kind of flat or your supply flat with where you are? Or are you actually looking to reduce that in addition to increasing your option lot exposure to kind of get to that 70% eventually?

好吧，我想，瑞安，我的意思是，你在開場白中提供了大部分信息，所以我很感激。但我想我的問題的要點是，試圖逐步了解你的計劃是什麼，更多的是試圖了解擁有的土地的實際數量。您是否希望透過保持自有地段數量或供應量與當前位置持平，來獲得 70% 的選擇權與自有組合？或者，除了增加期權敞口以最終達到 70% 之外，您實際上是否希望減少這一比例？

Yes, Stephen. In terms of years owned, we'd expect to probably keep that right around the level that we're at, maybe a slight decrease. And then ultimately, we would start to flip from years owned to years optioned. You'll see a little bit of a trade in that mix.

是的，史蒂芬。就擁有年限而言，我們預計可能會保持在現有水平附近，甚至可能略有下降。最終，我們將開始從擁有年限轉向選擇年限。你會在這種組合中看到一些交易。

Okay. That helps. And then when you talk about land banking and continuing to increase that, could you describe for us the -- when you think generally about what you're seeing in the market in terms of pricing, in terms of the way these negotiations are going with your land bankers, what kind of anticipated haircut to gross margin do you typically get when you go from just sort of buying versus doing a land option? And what's the benefit to your inventory turns that you typically think about? So what's the trade-off basically in your mind? Some rules of thumb for us?

好的。這有幫助。然後，當您談論土地儲備並繼續增加土地儲備時，您能否為我們描述一下——當您從定價方面、這些談判的方式方面總體考慮您在市場上看到的情況時您的土地銀行家，當您從購買土地轉向選擇土地時，您通常會得到什麼樣的預期毛利率削減？您通常認為對庫存週轉有什麼好處？那麼您心中的權衡基本上是什麼？我們有一些經驗法則嗎？

Yes. I don't know that there's a kind of a hard and fast answer to that, Stephen. It depends on the mix of the business that we've got. In terms of margin, it can be a couple of hundred basis points on a relative basis. And in terms of inventory turns, certainly, it's going to be more efficient than a bulk raw transaction, but it depends on the life of the asset. So in Del Webb, it's going to be very different than it is in the Centex business for us. So I wouldn't want to paint that with too broader brush.

是的。我不知道對此有什麼硬性且快速的答案，史蒂芬。這取決於我們的業務組合。就利潤率而言，相對而言可以是幾百個基點。就庫存週轉而言，當然，它會比大宗原材料交易更有效，但這取決於資產的壽命。因此，對我們來說，Del Webb 業務與 Centex 業務有很大不同。所以我不想用太寬的畫筆來畫它。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Just a question on the assumption on the incentive load in the gross margin guidance. I'm wondering if that represents more just a state of conservatism right now waiting to see what happens with rates further. Or if it's more about your philosophy as rates fall that you might allow that to flow through to affordability and drive volume versus letting it be a big margin benefit. If you could just talk about that trade-off?

只是關於毛利率指導中激勵負荷假設的問題。我想知道這是否代表了目前的保守主義狀態，等待進一步觀察利率會發生什麼。或者，如果更多的是關於利率下降時您的理念，那麼您可能會允許其轉化為可負擔性並推動銷量，而不是讓它成為巨大的利潤收益。您能談談這種權衡嗎？

Yes, Joe, we've -- I think the reason we've assumed that the incentive load stays about where it is, it's just because affordability continues to be challenged. So we've got low supply, but interest rates are relatively higher. And because of low supply, I think there's still some pressure on prices being elevated historically. So we've talked a lot in 2023 about how successful we were in helping to solve some of the affordability challenges with the incentive dollars that we put toward the forward mortgage commitments, we'll continue to use that as a tool in 2024.

是的，喬，我們——我認為我們之所以假設激勵負擔保持不變，只是因為負擔能力繼續受到挑戰。所以我們的供給量很低，但利率相對較高。由於供應量較低，我認為歷史上價格上漲仍存在一些壓力。因此，我們在 2023 年談論了很多關於我們如何成功地利用我們為遠期抵押貸款承諾提供的激勵資金來幫助解決一些負擔能力挑戰，我們將在 2024 年繼續使用它作為工具。

Now as rates fall, we think the cost of those forward mortgage rate commitments will become less. We've made an assumption that we reallocate some of those incentive dollars to other things that help to solve the affordability challenge and get a buyer into their home.

現在，隨著利率下降，我們認為這些遠期抵押貸款利率承諾的成本將會減少。我們假設我們將其中一些激勵資金重新分配到其他有助於解決負擔能力挑戰並吸引買家入住的事情上。

So is it conservative? Time will tell. I think what you've seen from us historically is we're not afraid to raise price, we're not afraid to cut discounts. And we're always looking to optimize pace and price. You've also heard me talk the last several quarters. We're not going to be margin proud. So we're doing things to be responsive to what the market is, to drive an outcome that yields the best return for our shareholders. And you'll see us actively managing all things, pace, price incentives forward mortgage commitments, et cetera.

那麼保守嗎？時間會證明一切。我想你從我們的歷史中看到的是我們不害怕提高價格，我們不害怕減少折扣。我們一直在尋求優化速度和價格。你也聽過我在過去幾季的演講。我們不會以利潤為傲。因此，我們所做的事情是為了回應市場變化，推動為股東帶來最佳回報的結果。您將看到我們積極管理所有事情，包括進度、價格激勵、抵押貸款承諾等等。

Understood. And I appreciate your comments about the valuation. It sounds like you think that cash flow is a bigger part of that potentially even than just percentage of optioned lots or any metric on the land side. It's about the cash flow, I tend to agree. And so just wondering if you are internally starting to think about your leverage in the context of cash flow or profits and not so much on what it makes up relative to your inventory balances kind of thinking almost more like a manufacturer or distributor because right now, you're not debt at about 13 days of operating profit, just thinking about the potential for using more debt going forward.

明白了。我感謝您對估值的評論。聽起來您認為現金流佔其中的更大部分，甚至可能比選擇地塊的百分比或土地方面的任何指標還要重要。我傾向於同意，這與現金流有關。因此，我想知道您是否在內部開始考慮現金流或利潤的背景下的槓桿作用，而不是考慮它相對於您的庫存餘額的構成，更像是製造商或分銷商的思考方式，因為現在，大約13 天的營業利潤並不意味著你負債，只是考慮未來使用更多債務的潛力。

Yes. It's an interesting question. I'm not sure we can think like a manufacturing company completely. The risk profiles are different. But having said that, I think there -- based on the strength of the operation, based on the cash flow that we've consistently shown despite growth, which historically is not the way this industry has behaved, we believe there is an opportunity for people to think a little bit differently about the equity in terms of how we manage the leverage on the balance sheet. A lot of that has to do with our opportunities to invest in the business and what we do on the share repurchases.

是的。這是一個有趣的問題。我不確定我們能否完全像製造公司一樣思考。風險狀況不同。但話雖如此，我認為，基於營運實力，基於儘管成長但我們一直表現出的現金流，這在歷史上並不是這個行業的表現方式，我們相信有機會人們在如何管理資產負債表上的槓桿方面對股權的看法有些不同。這在很大程度上與我們投資業務的機會以及我們在股票回購方面所做的工作有關。

But even you look at the rating agencies, they've been slow, but they've been responsive to kind of, I think, seeing the value in the business model and also the way the debt gets looked at. So will we use more debt for something? Without question, if it were for the right thing.

但即使你看看評級機構，他們的反應也很慢，但我認為他們對商業模式的價值以及債務的看待方式做出了反應。那我們會用更多的債務來做某件事嗎？毫無疑問，如果這是為了正確的事。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

I wanted to circle back just on incentives and where we are today and to the extent that there's the potential for those to decline, how we should think about the impact on '24. So when you talked about, I think, assuming in 2024 6.5%, of a low rate for incentives. And I believe you said that was similar to the fourth quarter.

我想回顧一下激勵措施以及我們今天所處的位置，以及這些激勵措施有可能下降的程度，我們應該如何考慮對 24 小時的影響。因此，當您談到時，我認為假設 2024 年為 6.5%，激勵率較低。我相信你說這與第四季類似。

If you could just remind us where you were in the fourth quarter versus the third and earlier in the year, and to the extent that perhaps incentives ticked down a little bit in the first quarter of '24. Should we be thinking that there would be a 3Q or a 4Q impact? Just trying to get the sense there of the lag?

如果您能提醒我們，您在第四季度與第三季及今年稍早的情況相比，以及在某種程度上，激勵措施可能在 24 年第一季有所下降。我們是否應該考慮會對第三季或第四季產生影響？只是想了解一下滯後的感覺嗎？

Yes, Mike, I'll take the first part of that, and then I'll have Bob do the last piece. So we're up 50 basis points from Q3. We were 6% in Q3, 6.5% in Q4. In terms of what that means for 2024, I think I addressed it on a prior call, we're going to actively be managing our incentive load, but we've shared with you what our assumption is in current form.

是的，麥克，我將完成第一部分，然後我將讓鮑勃完成最後一部分。因此，我們比第三季上漲了 50 個基點。第三季為 6%，第四季為 6.5%。就這對 2024 年意味著什麼而言，我想我在之前的電話會議上已經談到過，我們將積極管理我們的激勵負載，但我們已經與您分享了我們當前形式的假設。

If there's an opportunity to peel those back, we'll do it, and we'll certainly share that with you. In terms of kind of the quarter that it would impact right now, about 50% -- somewhere around 50% of our sales are spec. So those are closing in kind of the following quarter. Spec sales now would either be late Q1 closings or early Q2 closings. If it's a dirt sale, Q1 closings typically end up being Q3 or early Q4 closing. So we've factored all of those assumptions into the margin guide that we gave for the year which is 28% to 28.5% to repeat that. And then, Bob, I don't know if you have the incentive load for Q1, Q2. I think that was the only thing that I haven't answered.

如果有機會剝離這些內容，我們會這樣做，並且我們一定會與您分享。就目前受影響的季度而言，大約 50% 左右——我們銷售額的 50% 左右是規格產品。因此，這些將在下個季度結束。現在的規格銷售要不是第一季末交割，就是第二季早期交割。如果是拍賣，第一季的交割通常會在第三季或第四季提前交割。因此，我們已將所有這些假設納入我們今年給出的利潤率指南中，重複這一點為 28% 至 28.5%。然後，鮑勃，我不知道你是否有 Q1、Q2 的激勵負載。我想這是我唯一沒有回答的問題。

It was about 6% in each of the first, second and third quarters. And it was 4.3% in the fourth quarter of last year.

第一、二、三季均約為6%。去年第四季為4.3%。

Great. No, that's helpful. I guess, secondly, I'd love to kind of shift a little bit to the SG&A side. I think you gave guidance for the first quarter, but you've been running the last couple of years, plus or minus around 9%, low 9%. Obviously, we've heard a little bit about higher commission rates coming back maybe in a more choppy market at points in the past year or so. Overall solid market, but still, we've heard a little bit of acquisitions maybe coming up a little bit. How should we think about SG&A and the potential for further leverage over the next couple of years against the growth algorithm that you talked about? And if commissions, let's say, are stable from here, could we see an 8% at some point or getting closer to an 8% number? Just love your thoughts on that.

偉大的。不，這很有幫助。其次，我想我願意稍微轉向 SG&A 方面。我認為你們對第一季度給了指導，但過去幾年你們一直在運行，正負大約 9%，低 9%。顯然，我們聽說在過去一年左右的時間裡，在更動盪的市場中，佣金率可能會上升。整體市場穩健，但我們仍然聽說可能會出現一些收購。我們應該如何考慮 SG&A 以及未來幾年進一步利用您談到的成長演算法的潛力？如果佣金從現在開始保持穩定，我們是否會在某個時候看到 8% 或更接近 8% 的數字？只是喜歡你對此的想法。

Yes, Mike, we've -- I think we've always been thoughtful in how we spend SG&A dollars. We have historically made some extra investments in the quality of the homes that we build and deliver and the customer experience that we provide for our homeowners and we invest incremental dollars in the culture of our workforce.

是的，麥克，我們——我認為我們在如何花費SG&A 美元方面一直很深思熟慮。歷史上，我們在建造和交付的房屋品質以及為房主提供的客戶體驗方面進行了一些額外投資，並在員工文化上投入了增量資金。

So we've tried to maintain balance within the SG&A structure as well. We're not trying to run kind of the leanest and on the lean end, we're also not trying to overspend. I think we're trying to be very balanced. In terms of the leverage for 2024 specifically, we've kind of given the guide, which will put us kind of in the low 9s. And that's really reflective of kind of what Bob guided to on the average sales price, which we're expecting to be flat. And against that, you've still got wage inflation for kind of our internal employees running close to 3.5%, 4%.

因此，我們也試圖在銷售、管理和行政費用結構內保持平衡。我們並不是試圖以最精益的方式運行，我們也不想超支。我認為我們正在努力保持平衡。具體就 2024 年的槓桿率而言，我們已經給出了指導，這將使我們處於低 9 的水平。這確實反映了鮑伯對平均銷售價格的指導，我們預計平均銷售價格將持平。與此相反，我們內部員工的薪資漲幅仍接近 3.5%、4%。

So -- there's some pressure -- there's pressure on the SG&A front that we're not necessarily getting the benefit of on the ASP increase side. So in terms of kind of where it goes into the future, time will tell, but we've given the best visibility that we can for 2024. Bob, I don't know if you -- anything you'd add on the SG&A. Bob keeps us on. I still tell you that we're not overspending anywhere, at least not under Bobs' watch.

因此，存在一些壓力，SG&A 方面存在壓力，但我們不一定能從 ASP 成長方面受益。因此，就未來走向而言，時間會證明一切，但我們已經為 2024 年提供了最好的可見性。鮑勃，我不知道您是否會在 SG&A 上添加任何內容。鮑伯讓我們繼續前進。我仍然告訴你，我們在任何地方都沒有超支，至少在鮑伯的監督下沒有。

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Reid with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的山姆·里德（Sam Reid）。

I wanted to drill down a little bit on the first-time buyer. You guys have given a lot of good color on pricing. It does sound like price did move lower for this buyer group a bit again during the quarter. Maybe help us unpack the relative split perhaps between higher incentives for this buyer group as you try to make these homes more affordable versus perhaps some of the other affordability levers that you might be calling like smaller floor plans, et cetera. Kind of any color here would be appreciated.

我想深入了解首次購屋者。你們在定價方面給了很多很好的建議。聽起來該買家群體的價格在本季確實再次走低。也許可以幫助我們解決這個買家群體的更高激勵措施之間的相對分歧，因為你試圖讓這些房屋變得更便宜，而也許你可能會稱之為較小的平面圖等其他一些負擔能力槓桿。這裡任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Yes. I would tell you, if you look year-over-year pricing at 4.22% to that buyer is down 6% year-over-year, it was down about 1% versus the trailing quarter, so the third quarter of this year. And I would tell you, it is largely incentive related. And so we're not -- we haven't in the last 3 months or the last 12 months, had a radical redesign of the product that we're offering to people.

是的。我想告訴你，如果你看看 4.22% 的同比定價，那麼買家同比下降了 6%，那麼與去年第三季度相比，即今年第三季度，下降了約 1%。我想告訴你，這很大程度上與激勵有關。因此，我們在過去 3 個月或過去 12 個月內沒有對我們向人們提供的產品進行徹底的重新設計。

Communities when they get entitled, you have product approvals. So to a degree, you can see people saying, "I want the smaller floor plan." I would tell you that's not the driver of the price change. It is the incentive load that we've introduced. So it's that 220 basis points which for that buyer is about, call it, $8,000. That's the price decline.

當社區獲得授權時，您就獲得了產品批准。因此，在某種程度上，你可以看到人們說：“我想要更小的平面圖。”我想告訴你，這不是價格變動的驅動因素。這就是我們引入的激勵負荷。因此，對於該買家來說，220 個基點相當於 8,000 美元。這就是價格下降。

No, that's helpful. And maybe one more on pricing here just from a slightly different vantage point. You guys have given good color in the past on option and lot premiums and the impact on ASP. I want to say it's been around $100,000 or north of $100,000 across your entire mix throughout 2023. Curious as to where that trended in Q4? And maybe give us a sense as to your outlook for that piece of the price component into 2024?

不，這很有幫助。也許還有一個關於定價的問題，只是從稍微不同的角度來看。你們過去已經就選擇權和批次溢價以及對平均售價的影響給出了很好的說明。我想說的是，整個 2023 年整個組合的價格約為 100,000 美元或超過 100,000 美元。想知道第四季度的趨勢嗎？或許能讓我們了解一下您對 2024 年價格組成的展望？

Yes. In the fourth quarter, it was $105,000 per unit, so it's down about $4,000 versus the prior year. And so I think that speaks to the sales team, and I give them a lot of credit. Where we've needed incentive has been less around options and lot premiums and more oriented towards financing. So we didn't see a big change there, which I think is a real positive.

是的。第四季度，每台售價為 105,000 美元，比去年同期下降了約 4,000 美元。所以我認為這對銷售團隊來說很重要，我給他們很大的信任。我們需要的激勵措施不再是圍繞著選擇權和地塊溢價，而是更面向融資。所以我們沒有看到很大的變化，我認為這是一個真正的積極因素。

It also is interestingly, for that move-up and active-adult buyer, and we've highlighted the relative strength from them in this quarter and the relative pricing strength there. So just like our first time was down about 6%. Our move-up pricing was actually flat quarter-over-quarter, and our active adult was actually up 3%.

有趣的是，對於那些升級和活躍的成人買家來說，我們強調了他們在本季度的相對優勢以及那裡的相對定價優勢。就像我們第一次下跌約 6% 一樣。我們的升級定價實際上環比持平，而我們的活躍成人實際上上漲了 3%。

And I think it's reflective of the way we go to market, the way we sell the lots that we've got, the options that people put in houses. So our teams are still doing a really good job of providing value for that, which people desire.

我認為這反映了我們進入市場的方式、我們出售現有土地的方式以及人們對房屋的選擇。因此，我們的團隊仍然做得非常好，為人們提供了他們所渴望的價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Ken Zener with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Zener 和 Seaport Research Partners 的電話。

I've got 2 very simple questions. First is on land banking. What percent of closings do you expect to be from finished lots once you reach your 70% option-owned scenario?

我有兩個非常簡單的問題。首先是土地儲備。一旦達到 70% 的選擇權所有權情景，您預計成交量的百分比是多少？

Ken, it's an interesting question. Certainly, the land banking would be finished lots, but for the optionality that we have with individual sellers, many of those were self-developing. And so I don't -- have added much...

肯，這是一個有趣的問題。當然，土地儲備將是成品地塊，但考慮到我們與個人賣家的選擇，其中許多是自我開發的。所以我沒有添加太多......

Yes, My -- and this is a little bit of a guess, Ken, roughly 20% to 25% of our total closings. Once we get to 70%-30% will be finished lots. The rest will -- there'll be a lot of optionality in there. But to Bob's point, a lot of our options, we take down as raw land chunks and then we self-develop those. They're still highly efficient. It's just a different form of an option structure.

是的，我的——肯，這只是一個猜測，大約占我們總成交量的 20% 到 25%。一旦達到 70%-30%，批次就會完成。其餘的將會——那裡會有很多選擇。但就鮑伯的觀點而言，我們的許多選擇都是作為未開發的土地而被拆除，然後我們自行開發它們。他們的效率還是很高的。這只是選擇權結構的一種不同形式。

Right. I assume that's kind of reflecting your entry-level exposure as well? Second question is talking about options, again, could you update us what percent of your ASP is coming from options? And then comment on the margin benefit you get from that, if you could. So we could discern your operating construction costs versus your strategy of forging in these options?

正確的。我想這也反映了您的入門曝光？第二個問題是關於選擇權，您能否更新一下您的平均售價中有多少百分比來自選擇權？如果可以的話，然後評論一下您從中獲得的利潤收益。那麼我們可以辨別您的營運建造成本與您制定這些選項的策略嗎？

Sorry, I want to make sure I understand the $4,000 to $105, 000 a huge scale. How much of it is options?

抱歉，我想確保我理解 4,000 美元到 105, 000 美元的巨大規模。其中有多少是選項？

No, I think -- right. Your total ASP, you have a certain option exposure more move-up and active-adult. But could you talk to the margin impact of that as well?

不，我想——是的。您的總 ASP，您有一定的選擇權，可以選擇更多的升級和活躍的成年人。但您能談談這對利潤率的影響嗎？

Yes. So of the $105,000 of option and lot premium $80,000 is options. $25, 000, that's lot premium. I could say, for instance, lot premiums are pure margin. I'm not sure that, that's fair, right? Pricing doesn't really work that way. But in terms of the option spend, typically, it's going to have a relatively rich margin mix, call it, 50%. And so it will -- it is accretive to the overall margin.

是的。因此，在 105,000 美元的選擇權和批次溢價中，80,000 美元是選擇權。 25, 000 美元，這是很多溢價。例如，我可以說，批次溢價是純保證金。我不確定，這很公平，對吧？定價其實並不是這樣運作的。但就選擇權支出而言，通常會有相對豐富的利潤組合，稱為 50%。因此，它會增加整體利潤。

And the way we try and go to market, Ken, and I don't know if this answers it better, we put a base price house that we think is kind of market standard and what people can and should expect to pay for that house, then we start talking about, okay, which lot do you want? What are you willing to pay for that lot, that's what generates $25,000. And then, okay, now in the house if we're offering optionality. And we don't, for everyone, right? So for the Centex buyer, we may have curated packages or no choices at all. But for the folks that can do structural options for fit and finish, that's what's driving that $80,000 of incremental revenue.

肯，我們嘗試進入市場的方式，我不知道這是否能更好地回答這個問題，我們設定了一個我們認為是市場標準的基本價格房屋，以及人們可以並且應該為該房屋支付的費用，然後我們開始討論，好吧，你想要哪一批？您願意為該批次支付多少錢，這就是 25,000 美元的收益。然後，好吧，如果我們提供選擇的話，現在就在家裡。但我們並不對每個人都這樣，對吧？因此，對於 Centex 買家來說，我們可能有精心策劃的套餐，也可能完全沒有選擇。但對於那些能夠進行結構選擇以進行安裝和裝飾的人來說，這就是推動 80,000 美元增量收入的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Thanks for all the details so far. A question on cycle times. So congrats on the improvement there. It sounds like you're gonna see -- you expect to see further improvement in '24. Curious to get to the 100-day target from 130 where you're at right now, you guys are targeting 5% growth. We've heard some other builders may be a little bit higher than that. Is there a level from a labor perspective where builders try to push starts more significantly that you think cycle time improvement might stall a bit? Are there any constraints that you could foresee? Or is the unleashing of kind of the normalization of the supply chain just kind of independent of whatever the start pace might look like in '24.

感謝到目前為止的所有詳細資訊。關於循環時間的問題。所以要祝賀那裡的改進。聽起來你會看到——你期望在 24 年看到進一步的進步。你們很想從現在的 130 天達到 100 天的目標，你們的目標是 5% 的成長。我們聽說其他一些建築商可能比這個高一點。從勞動力的角度來看，建築商是否會試圖更大幅度地推動開工，以至於您認為週期時間的改進可能會有點停滯？您可以預見任何限制嗎？或者說供應鏈正常化的釋放與 24 年的啟動速度無關。

Yes. It's a fair question. Based on the total amount of production that's happening, I don't see the industry stressing the labor availability. I'm not suggesting there's a whole bunch of excess labor on it around out there. But at least for the big builders, I think we've got great trade relationships. And I think we'll continue to get not only schedule performance, but the labor on our job sites.

是的。這是一個公平的問題。根據正在發生的生產總量，我認為該行業並沒有強調勞動力的可用性。我並不是說周圍有大量多餘的勞動力。但至少對於大型建築商來說，我認為我們擁有良好的貿易關係。我認為我們不僅會繼續獲得計畫績效，還會繼續獲得工作現場的勞動力。

I think the pressure likely comes on dollars or more so than time. If we're running into labor pitches because of a volume increase. I think it's probably dollars more than time. A lot of the decrease that we'll take, it will be because we're getting things on a predictable schedule, like we used to pre-COVID. So that's working better, which allows us to take some kind of dead days out of our schedule that we had -- we built in for things to go wrong or for time and we were just literally waiting for material to show up.

我認為壓力可能來自於美元，或比時間更重要。如果我們因為數量增加而陷入勞動困境。我認為這可能比時間更重要。我們將減少很多，這是因為我們正在按照可預測的時間表進行工作，就像我們在新冠疫情爆發之前一樣。所以這樣效果更好，這讓我們能夠從我們的日程安排中剔除一些死氣沉沉的日子——我們為出現問題或時間而製定了計劃，而我們只是在等待材料出現。

So it's a little bit of that, a little bit of we're just getting back to the cycle times that we had pre-COVID. So we trimmed out about 30 or so days in 2024. We'll get over in 2023 rather. We think we can get another 30 or so days by the end of 2024, and we'll be back largely in line with pre-COVID cycle times.

所以，我們只是回到了新冠疫情之前的周期時間。所以我們在 2024 年削減了大約 30 天左右。我們會在 2023 年結束。我們認為，到 2024 年底，我們可以再獲得 30 天左右的時間，並且我們將基本上恢復到新冠疫情之前的周期時間。

Great. I appreciate those added thoughts, Ryan. And then I guess in the similar vein, I was curious if you could just give an update on the ICG growth plans there and kind of how that's been trending and what your current thinking is as far as additional market expansion, if there is any?

偉大的。我很欣賞這些額外的想法，瑞安。然後我想以同樣的方式，我很好奇您是否可以提供有關 ICG 增長計劃的最新信息以及趨勢如何，以及您目前對額外市場擴張的想法是什麼（如果有的話）？

Yes, Alan, it continues to go well. We have 2 plants today. Both are focused in the Southeast part of the U.S. Our growth plans are still largely on target to have approximately 8 factories. So we haven't announced anything new. We'll -- similar to our share buybacks, we'll probably report the news on that as opposed to give forward-looking forecasts.

是的，艾倫，一切進展順利。今天我們有 2 家工廠。兩者都集中在美國東南部地區。我們的成長計劃仍然主要以擁有大約 8 家工廠為目標。所以我們還沒有宣布任何新消息。與我們的股票回購類似，我們可能會報告相關新聞，而不是給予前瞻性預測。

And I guess, if I could sneak one in on that. I mean it's hard for us to conceptualize what impact that has on your business. And obviously, it's concentrated in a handful of markets right now. But are there certain kind of metrics that you can share with us, whether it's cycle times or costs, margin, et cetera, that you can kind of demonstrate on a case study basis how that's contributing to your business right now?

我想，如果我能偷偷地參與其中的話。我的意思是，我們很難概念化這對您的業務有何影響。顯然，它現在集中在少數幾個市場。但是，您是否可以與我們分享某些類型的指標，無論是周期時間還是成本、利潤等等，您可以在案例研究的基礎上展示這些指標對您目前的業務有何貢獻？

Yes, Alan. So that's -- we haven't given a bunch of guidance on that just because it is concentrated into a couple of markets, and we don't feel it's appropriate to extrapolate the entire enterprise yet. As we get further down the path, we'll share more. Conceptually, it's exactly what you highlighted. We're getting cycle time improvements. We're getting better quality, and there are some raw material cost savings that we believe we're getting as well.

是的，艾倫。所以，我們還沒有就此提供大量指導，只是因為它集中在幾個市場上，而且我們認為還不適合推斷整個企業。隨著我們在這條道路上走得更遠，我們將分享更多。從概念上講，這正是您所強調的。我們正在縮短週期時間。我們的品質越來越好，我們相信我們也節省了一些原材料成本。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is just around the specs. You mentioned that you had about 44%, I think, of your production that's in spec. As you think about the year and the way that the demand may come together, any thoughts on where that may move or how you're thinking about it longer term?

我的第一個問題是關於規格的。您提到，我認為您的產品中有大約 44% 是符合規格的。當您考慮這一年以及需求可能聚集的方式時，您對需求可能會發生什麼變化或您如何考慮更長期的問題有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Susan, I want to anticipate a massive change from the percentage. We're probably on the higher end of the range that we'll have in spec right now. Specific to the fourth quarter, we put more spec starts in the ground than what we sold, and that was intentional. We wanted to have some additional inventory going into the spring selling season, which we have. So as we move throughout the year, probably right in line with where we're at or a tad lower.

是的。蘇珊，我想預計百分比會發生巨大變化。我們可能處於目前規格範圍的高端。具體到第四季度，我們投入的規格比我們銷售的還要多，這是故意的。我們希望在春季銷售季節有一些額外的庫存，我們已經擁有了。因此，當我們全年移動時，可能與我們所處的位置一致或稍低。

Okay. That's helpful. And then when we think generally about the potential for rates to come down this year? And that possibly driving some increase on the existing home side of the market. Any thoughts on what the implications of that could be, especially perhaps on the move-up and the active-adult parts of the businesses? And any initiatives you have relative to that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當我們普遍考慮今年利率下降的潛力時？這可能會推動現有家庭市場的一些成長。對於這可能產生的影響有什麼想法，尤其是對企業的晉升和活躍的成人部分？您對此有何舉措？

Yes. Susan, I -- with the rate cuts that are forecasted, I don't see it being at a level that's going to unleash a tidal wave of resale inventory. So is it better than where we're at today? Certainly. Will that start to free up some resale inventory? I think so. And I think that's probably helpful against the backdrop of we continue to be undersupplied in the country. So on balance, I don't think it has much impact at all on what we're projecting for our business in 2024.

是的。蘇珊，我——根據預測的降息，我認為降息水平不會引發庫存轉售浪潮。那麼它比我們今天的情況更好嗎？當然。這會開始釋放一些轉售庫存嗎？我想是這樣。我認為，在我們國內供應仍然不足的背景下，這可能會有所幫助。因此，總的來說，我認為這對我們 2024 年的業務預測沒有太大影響。

Our final question comes from the line of Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America, where we've reached the time allotment for this morning's call. Please go ahead.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Rafe Jadrosich 與美國銀行的電話，我們已經達到了今天早上電話會議的時間分配。請繼續。

Can you -- in terms of the additional 30 days of bill cycle improvement you're expecting for 2024. Can you talk about what the build cycles are in homes that you're starting today? Like are you already at that 100-day level? And is that improvement embedded in your cash flow guidance?

您能—就您預計 2024 年帳單週期將延長 30 天而言。您能談談您今天開始建造的房屋的建造週期是多少嗎？您已經達到 100 天的水平了嗎？這種改善是否已納入您的現金流指導中？

Yes, Rafe. It's a fair question. Homes that we're starting today we'll deliver in kind of late -- you know, homes were starting today will deliver in Q2, basically. So no, we're not at the 100 days yet. Now that being said, there are some markets and some communities where we're -- we are at the 100 days. And in fact, we were at 100 days last year. When you blend it all together, we think it will be Q4 before we're at the 100 days that we've highlighted as our goal.

是的，拉夫。這是一個公平的問題。我們今天開始的房屋將在稍後交付 - 你知道，今天開始的房屋基本上將在第二季度交付。所以不，我們還沒到 100 天。話雖如此，在某些市場和一些社區，我們正處於 100 天的階段。事實上，去年我們已經 100 天了。當你把所有這些融合在一起時，我們認為第四季就會達到我們強調的目標 100 天。

Then, Rafe, our guide does factor in what we see in terms of cycle times during the year, the cash flow guidance to your question.

然後，拉夫，我們的指南確實考慮了我們在一年中的周期時間所看到的情況，以及您問題的現金流指導。

Got it. That's helpful. And then really helpful color in terms of the land inflation you're expecting in your gross margin for 2024. And you have the land that you need through 2025. On the land that you're contracting today, what are you seeing in terms of inflation? Is it at a similar level? Or are you actually seeing that come down? And then can you kind of help us understand the difference between development cost inflation relative to what you're seeing for raw land?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，就您預計 2024 年毛利率中的土地通膨而言，真正有用的顏色。您擁有 2025 年所需的土地。在您今天承包的土地上，您看到的是什麼？通貨膨脹？是否處於類似水平？或者你真的看到了這種情況的下降嗎？那麼您能否幫助我們了解開發成本通膨與您所看到的未開發土地之間的差異？

Yes. So -- sorry, I forgot the first part of the question.

是的。所以——抱歉，我忘了問題的第一部分。

You spoke about the land inflation in the...

您談到了...的土地通貨膨脹。

I'm sorry. We -- listen, it's interesting land prices don't come down very often. They're sticky. And we've seen and we've highlighted sort of sequential increases in lot costs. I would tell you that the land we're seeing today is consistent with that. Prices are pretty robust, and it's a pretty competitive landscape out there. We underwrite to return. And so it's -- we look to see can we get return out of that.

對不起。我們——聽著，有趣的是，土地價格並不常下跌。它們很黏。我們已經看到並強調了批量成本的連續增加。我會告訴你，我們今天看到的土地與此相符。價格相當強勁，而且競爭格局相當激烈。我們承保退貨。所以，我們想看看能否從中獲得回報。

So I think no change, honestly, in the land market. In terms of the inflationary aspect, what we are seeing is that, that labor constraint influences the development of land, just like it does building of houses. And with general cost inflation that we were seeing last year in particular, it was influencing the stance of [pipe], everything that we do to do the development of the communities was running pretty hot too.

所以說實話，我認為土地市場沒有改變。在通貨膨脹方面，我們看到的是，勞動力約束影響土地的開發，就像影響房屋的建設一樣。尤其是去年我們看到的整體成本通膨，它正在影響[管道]的立場，我們為社區發展所做的一切也都非常熱門。

So again, we've highlighted we think it's going to be a little bit more expensive in terms of our lot increase this year for '24. And again, I think that just reflects all the activity that was going on and some of the cost inflation that we saw in '23 feeding into our lots this year in '24. Good news is the vertical, we're seeing a pretty benign in land market where that has been running pretty hot last year, obviously. So the slowdown in inflation, we feel it now in the house, hopefully, we'll feel that a little bit later in land. It would be an opportunity for us for sure.

因此，我們再次強調，我們認為就今年 24 年增加的土地而言，價格會稍微貴一些。再說一次，我認為這只是反映了正在發生的所有活動以及我們在 23 年看到的一些成本通膨，這些成本通膨今年在 24 年影響了我們的地塊。好消息是垂直領域，我們看到土地市場相當良性，而去年的土地市場顯然非常火爆。因此，通膨放緩，我們現在在房子裡感受到了，希望稍後我們會在土地上感受到。這對我們來說肯定是一個機會。

I would now like to turn the call over to Jim Zeumer for closing remarks.

現在我想將電話轉給吉姆·祖默 (Jim Zeumer) 致閉幕詞。

I appreciate everybody's time this morning. We'll certainly be available over the rest of the day. If you have any additional questions. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking with you on our next earnings call.

我很感謝大家今天早上的時間。我們一定會在當天剩下的時間為您服務。如果您還有任何其他問題。否則，我們期待在下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。