普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Avi and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，早安。我叫阿維，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

And I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Jim Zeumer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Zeumer, you may begin.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jim Zeumer 先生主持。 Zeumer 先生，您可以開始了。

Great. Thank you, Avi. We appreciate everyone joining today's call to discuss PulteGroup's third quarter operating and financial results. As detailed in this morning's earnings release, PulteGroup delivered another quarter of strong earnings as we continue to capitalize on our competitive strengths and balanced approach to the business.

偉大的。謝謝你，阿維。我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，討論 PulteGroup 第三季度的營運和財務表現。正如今天早上發布的收益報告中所詳述的，隨著我們繼續利用我們的競爭優勢和平衡的業務方式，PulteGroup 又實現了強勁的季度收益。

Joining me on today's call to discuss our Q3 results are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O’Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Ossowski, Senior Vice President of Finance. A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We'll post an audio replay of this call later today.

總裁兼執行長瑞安馬歇爾 (Ryan Marshall) 參加了今天的電話會議，討論我們的第三季業績。 Bob OâShaughnessy，執行副總裁兼財務長；吉姆‧奧索夫斯基 (Jim Ossowski)，財務資深副總裁。我們的收益發布副本和今天早上的簡報幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們將在今天稍後發布本次通話的音訊重播。

I want to inform everyone that today's discussion includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

我想通知大家，今天的討論包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們評論中建議的結果有重大差異。在今天的收益發布和隨附的簡報幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來業績的最重要的風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. As we will discuss over the next several minutes, PulteGroup reported another quarter of outstanding and for a number of key metrics, record financial results. Our financial performance demonstrates once again the importance of PulteGroup's balanced and differentiated operating model. Leveraging our broad geographic footprint and diversified product offering, we are working to maintain significant market share among all major buyer groups.

謝謝，吉姆，早安。正如我們將在接下來的幾分鐘中討論的那樣，PulteGroup 報告了又一個季度的出色業績，並且在許多關鍵指標方面均創下了創紀錄的財務業績。我們的財務表現再次證明了普爾特集團平衡和差異化營運模式的重要性。憑藉我們廣泛的地理足跡和多元化的產品供應，我們正在努力在所有主要買家群體中保持重要的市場份額。

At the same time, we are successfully executing both large-scale spec and build-to-order homebuilding businesses. Our spec business allows us to more cost efficiently serve first-time buyers, while our build-to-order business caters to move-up and active-adult buyers looking to personalize their home location and design features.

同時，我們成功地開展了大規模規格和按訂單建造的住宅建築業務。我們的規格業務使我們能夠更經濟高效地為首次購房者提供服務，而我們的按單生產業務則迎合了希望個性化其住宅位置和設計功能的升級和活躍的成年買家。

Specific to our financial results, I am extremely proud of our entire organization for their efforts in delivering third quarter results that include a 43% increase in orders, industry-leading gross margins of 29.5%, record third quarter earnings of $2.90 per share and a return on equity that exceeded 30%.

具體到我們的財務業績，我為我們整個組織在第三季度業績方面所做的努力感到非常自豪，其中包括訂單增長43%、行業領先的毛利率29.5%、創紀錄的第三季度每股收益2.90 美元以及股本回報率超過30%。

In the quarter, I would highlight our active-adult business as an important contributor to our sign of growth and our gross margin performance. In an operating environment where rising mortgage rates are creating increasing affordability challenges, 47% of our Del Webb purchasers are cash buyers. This is up from 33% just 2 years ago. Along with largely being cash buyers, these are customers who can afford the premium locks and upgrades that make active-adult, our highest-margin business.

在本季度，我要強調我們的活躍成人業務是我們成長跡象和毛利率表現的重要貢獻者。在抵押貸款利率上升對承受能力造成越來越大挑戰的經營環境中，我們 47% 的 Del Webb 買家是現金買家。這比兩年前的 33% 有所上升。除了大部分是現金購買者之外，這些客戶還能夠負擔得起高級鎖具和升級費用，從而使活躍的成年人成為我們利潤率最高的業務。

Just to demonstrate the brand power of the Del Webb name, in June, we opened Del Webb Kensington Ridge in Michigan, not a market you might consider a hotspot for retirees. In a community where base home prices range from $370,000 to north of $600,000, we have already sold 114 houses in just over 100 days. We fully appreciate that to some degree, all buyers are impacted by rising rates and macroeconomic concerns. The buyer groups can absolutely behave differently over the course of a housing cycle.

為了展示 Del Webb 這個名字的品牌力量，我們於 6 月在密西根州肯辛頓嶺 (Kensington Ridge) 開設了 Del Webb 店，這裡可能不是退休人員的熱點市場。在一個基本房價從 37 萬美元到 60 萬美元以上的社區中，我們在短短 100 多天內就售出了 114 套房屋。我們完全理解，在某種程度上，所有買家都會受到利率上漲和宏觀經濟擔憂的影響。在住房週期的過程中，買家群體的行為絕對可能有所不同。

For PulteGroup, we believe being diversified across all buyer groups can enhance both growth and stability. Beyond our diversification across buyer groups, PulteGroup's strong third quarter financial performance also benefited from our ability to offer consumers both spec build and build-to-order homes. As we have discussed on prior calls, over the past 24 months, we have transitioned our first-time buyer communities to a spec build model to better serve these customers.

對於 PulteGroup 來說，我們相信在所有買家群體中實現多元化可以增強成長和穩定性。除了我們在買家群體中的多元化之外，PulteGroup 強勁的第三季度財務業績還得益於我們為消費者提供規格建造和按訂單建造房屋的能力。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，在過去 24 個月中，我們已將首次購買者社群轉變為規範建構模型，以更好地為這些客戶提供服務。

Looking at our first-time business, spec building allows us to maintain a more consistent cadence of starts in those communities, which drives construction efficiencies and is important in working with our trades. More directly to our quarter, having additional inventory available was important, given 49% of our sales in the period were spec sales. I would note that 49% spec sales in the quarter is down from 58% in Q1 of this year.

看看我們的首次業務，規範建設使我們能夠在這些社區中保持更一致的啟動節奏，這提高了建設效率，並且對於與我們的行業合作非常重要。更直接地講到我們這個季度，擁有額外的可用庫存非常重要，因為我們在此期間的銷售額中有 49% 是規格銷售。我要指出的是，本季規格銷售額的 49% 低於今年第一季的 58%。

I think the decrease in the relative percentage of spec sales in the quarter reflects 2 interesting dynamics. On one hand, the affordability challenges caused by higher interest rates are pushing some buyers, particularly first-time buyers to the sidelines for now. On the other hand, more affluent buyers who are less fearful about rates are comfortable contracting for a home where they've selected the lot, the floor plan and the design options.

我認為本季規格銷售相對百分比的下降反映了兩個有趣的動態。一方面，利率上升帶來的負擔能力挑戰正在迫使一些買家，尤其是首次購屋者暫時觀望。另一方面，較富裕的買家不太擔心價格，他們會放心地簽訂房屋合同，他們已經選擇了地塊、平面圖和設計選項。

On the construction side, I'm pleased to say that we continue to shorten our production cycle. Just to remind people, pre-COVID, our production cycle was approximately 90 workdays. At its worst, this number ballooned to 170 days. By the end of the quarter, we had reduced this number to about 140 days. Our teams continue to shave days and weeks off our build cycle, and we remain optimistic about our ability to get back below 100 days in 2024.

在施工方面，我很高興地說我們繼續縮短生產週期。只是提醒人們，在新冠疫情之前，我們的生產週期約為 90 個工作天。在最糟糕的情況下，這個數字激增至 170 天。到本季末，我們已將這一數字減少到約 140 天。我們的團隊繼續縮短建造週期，我們對 2024 年將週期恢復到 100 天以下的能力保持樂觀。

As you would expect cutting more than a month off of our cycle time has positively impacted our cash flow, which we continue to allocate across our key business priorities. Through the first 9 months of 2023, we have invested $3 billion in our business through land acquisition and development. Over the same period, we have returned over $800 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. In this most recent quarter, we even took advantage of market conditions to retire $65 million of near-term debt at prices just below par.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們的周期時間縮短了一個多月，這對我們的現金流產生了積極影響，我們繼續將現金流分配給我們的關鍵業務優先事項。截至 2023 年前 9 個月，我們已透過土地收購和開發在業務上投資了 30 億美元。同期，我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還超過 8 億美元。在最近一個季度，我們甚至利用市場狀況以略低於面額的價格償還了 6,500 萬美元的短期債務。

PulteGroup has delivered outstanding operating and financial performance in the quarter and throughout the first 9 months of the year as we have leveraged our strong competitive position to capitalize on buyer demand. It grows increasingly clear that Federal Reserve actions to raise interest rates are having the desired effect of slowing the economy, although the speed of deceleration has been slower than expected, given the unprecedented ramp in rates. While arguably not the most supportive economic backdrop, new home demand in 2023 has benefited from a robust jobs market and rising wages, financially resilient consumers and a continuing dearth of supply from the existing home market.

PulteGroup 在本季和今年前 9 個月中實現了出色的營運和財務業績，因為我們利用了強大的競爭地位來滿足買家的需求。越來越明顯的是，聯準會的升息行動正在產生減緩經濟成長的預期效果，儘管考慮到前所未有的利率上升，經濟減速的速度比預期要慢。雖然可以說不是最具支持性的經濟背景，但 2023 年的新房需求受益於強勁的就業市場和工資上漲、經濟上有彈性的消費者以及現有住房市場供應的持續短缺。

And finally, as higher rates begin to bite, we responded with adjustments in product, pricing and incentive programs that successfully address consumers' biggest pain point, affordability. It's difficult to know if the Fed has done hiking rates for this economic cycle and trying to guess when they will move to cut rates is challenging. So we will remain disciplined in how we manage our business. We'll focus on serving our customers, supporting our employees, turning our assets and allocating capital appropriately while maintaining a strong and highly flexible capital position.

最後，隨著利率開始上升，我們對產品、定價和激勵計畫進行了調整，成功解決了消費者最大的痛點——負擔能力。很難知道聯準會是否在本次經濟週期中升息，並且試圖猜測他們何時會降息也具有挑戰性。因此，我們將在管理業務方面保持紀律。我們將專注於服務客戶、支援員工、週轉資產並適當配置資本，同時保持強大且高度靈活的資本狀況。

Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a detailed analysis of our Q3 results. Bob?

現在讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，詳細分析我們第三季的結果。鮑伯？

Thanks, Ryan. PulteGroup's third quarter results add to what has been an exceptional year for the company as we have grown revenues and earnings, generated significant cash flow from operations, lowered our debt and generally strengthened our entire operating platform.

謝謝，瑞安。 PulteGroup 的第三季業績為公司帶來了非凡的一年，因為我們的收入和利潤有所增長，營運產生了大量現金流，降低了債務，並總體上加強了我們的整個營運平台。

Specific to our third quarter, home sales revenues increased 3% over last year to $3.9 billion. Higher revenues for the quarter reflect a 2% increase in our average sales price to $549,000, in combination with a less than 1% increase in closings to 7,076 homes. The 2% gain in average sales price of homes closed in the quarter was driven by increases of 4% and 6% and for move-up in active-adult buyers, respectively, partially offset by a 3% decrease among first-time buyers.

具體到第三季度，房屋銷售收入比去年增長 3%，達到 39 億美元。本季營收的增加反映出我們的平均銷售價格上漲了 2%，達到 549,000 美元，而成交量增加了不到 1%，達到 7,076 套。本季成交房屋平均銷售價格上漲 2%，主要是由於活躍成年買家的上漲 4% 和 6% 以及上漲，但部分被首次購屋者下降 3% 所抵銷。

The lower ASP among first-time buyer closings reflects our focus on remaining price competitive as interest rates have moved higher throughout the year. The mix of homes delivered in the third quarter changed just slightly from the prior year as we continue to operate within the range of our stated [mix] of business.

首次購屋者成交的平均售價較低，反映出我們在利率全年走高的情況下專注於維持價格競爭力。第三季交付的房屋結構與去年相比略有變化，因為我們繼續在我們規定的業務範圍內運作。

For the quarter, closings among first-time buyers represented 30% -- 38% of the business, move-up buyers totaled 37% and active-adult buyers represented 25% of homes closed. In third quarter of last year, 36% of homes delivered for the first-time, 38% were move-up and 26% were active-adult.

本季度，首次購屋者的成交量佔成交量的 30% 至 38%，升級買家佔成交量的 37%，活躍的成年買家佔成交量的 25%。去年第三季度，36% 的房屋為首次交付，38% 為升級房屋，26% 為活躍成人房屋。

Net new orders for the third quarter increased 43% over last year to 7,065 homes as we realized year-over-year gains in both units and absorption pace across all buyer groups. Orders among first-time buyers in the third quarter increased 53% over last year to 2,979 homes. Gain among move-up tiers is even greater as net new orders increased 56% to 2,524 homes. And finally, on a comparable community count, we realized a double-digit gain in sales among active-adult buyers as net new orders for the quarter increased to 1,562 ones.

第三季的淨新訂單比去年增長 43%，達到 7,065 套房屋，因為我們實現了所有買家群體的單位數量和吸收速度同比增長。第三季首次購屋者的訂單比去年增加 53%，達到 2,979 套。升級等級的收益甚至更大，淨新訂單增加 56%，達到 2,524 套房屋。最後，根據可比較的社群數量，我們發現活躍成人買家的銷售額出現了兩位數的成長，本季淨新訂單增至 1,562 份。

In the third quarter, we operated from an average of 923 communities, which is up 12% over last year. Adjusting for community count, the monthly absorption pace in the third quarter averaged 2.5 homes, which is up from 2.0 homes per month in the third quarter of last year. As a percentage of beginning backlog, our cancellation rate in the third quarter was 9% compared with 8% in the prior year. To be clear, on a unit basis, cancellations in the third quarter were down more than 20% from last year but the relative size of our backlog in each period results of the cancellation rates being comparable.

第三季度，我們平均經營了 923 個社區，比去年成長了 12%。調整社區數量後，第三季的每月平均吸收量為 2.5 套，高於去年第三季的每月 2.0 套。以期初積壓的百分比計算，第三季的取消率為 9%，去年同期為 8%。需要明確的是，以單位計算，第三季的取消量比去年下降了 20% 以上，但每個時期積壓訂單的相對規模導致取消率具有可比性。

Our unit backlog at the end of the quarter was 13,547 homes compared with 17,053 homes at the end of last year's third quarter. On a dollar basis, the value of our ending backlog was $8.1 billion, down from $10.6 billion in the third quarter of last year.

截至本季末，我們的單位積壓量為 13,547 套，而去年第三季末為 17,053 套。以美元計算，我們的期末積壓訂單價值為 81 億美元，低於去年第三季的 106 億美元。

At the end of the third quarter, we had a total of 17,376 homes under construction. This is down 24% from the same period last year as we strategically manage starts and realize the benefits of faster cycle times. Of the homes under construction, 61% were [up] sold and 39% were spec. As we have stated previously, we are comfortable putting spec unit into production but we are thoughtful about aligning the pace of starts with pace of sales to help to reduce the risk of putting too much inventory on the ground.

截至第三季末，我們共有 17,376 間在建房屋。由於我們策略性地管理啟動並實現更快週期時間的好處，這一數字比去年同期下降了 24%。在建房屋中，61% 已售出，39% 為規格房屋。正如我們之前所說，我們很樂意將規格單元投入生產，但我們會考慮將開工速度與銷售速度保持一致，以幫助降低地面庫存過多的風險。

Consistent with this measured approach to production of the 6,700 spec homes currently under construction fewer than 1,000 were finished. Given our Q3 community count of 923, we continue to carry approximately 1 finished spec per community, which is in line with our operating targets. Based on the homes we have in production and as importantly, current sales trends, we expect closings in the fourth quarter to be approximately 8,000 homes. Delivering 8,000 homes in the fourth quarter would put us at 29,000 for the full year, which is down slightly from our previous guide for full year closings to be 29,500 homes.

按照這種測量方法，目前正在建造的 6,700 套規格住宅中，只有不到 1,000 套已竣工。鑑於我們第三季的社區數量為 923 個，我們繼續為每個社區提供約 1 個成品規範，這符合我們的營運目標。根據我們正在生產的房屋以及同樣重要的當前銷售趨勢，我們預計第四季度的成交量約為 8,000 套。如果第四季交付 8,000 套房屋，全年成交量將達到 29,000 套，略低於我們之前的全年成交量 29,500 套的指導值。

Change in our guide reflects the more challenging affordability conditions resulting from higher rates as well as the slight shift in our mix towards build-to-order homes, which won't deliver until 2024. Given the mix of homes we currently expect to deliver in the fourth quarter, we expect our average sales price on closing to be in the range of $540,000 to $550,000 in the period.

我們指南的變化反映了由於利率上升而帶來的更具挑戰性的負擔能力條件，以及我們對按訂單建造的房屋結構的輕微轉變，這種房屋要到2024 年才會交付。考慮到我們目前預計交付的房屋結構第四季度，我們預計該期間成交時的平均售價將在 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元之間。

Our third quarter home sale gross margin of 29.5% continues to lead the industry as we successfully turned our assets while still achieving high levels of profitability and driving high returns on investment. PulteGroup's reported results benefited from strong margin performance across all buyer groups, first-time move-up and active-adult. Further, as we have talked about on prior calls, our diversified product portfolio is allowing us to capture a higher gross margins that are typically available within our move-up and active-adult communities.

我們的第三季房屋銷售毛利率為 29.5%，繼續領先產業，因為我們成功地轉變了資產，同時仍實現了高水準的獲利能力並推動了高投資回報。 PulteGroup 公佈的業績得益於所有買家群體、首次升級和活躍成人群體的強勁利潤表現。此外，正如我們在先前的電話會議中談到的那樣，我們多元化的產品組合使我們能夠獲得更高的毛利率，這通常在我們的升級和活躍的成人社區中可以獲得。

As I would remind everyone, our primary focus is always on driving high returns on invested capital but we appreciate margins are an important contributor to achieving such returns. This is why we remain disciplined in where we locate and how we underwrite our communities, and how we design and build our houses, and how we strategically price our homes in the marketplace.

我要提醒大家的是，我們的首要重點始終是推動投資資本的高回報，但我們意識到利潤率是實現這種回報的重要因素。這就是為什麼我們在選址、如何承保社區、如何設計和建造房屋以及如何在市場上對房屋進行策略性定價方面保持嚴格的紀律。

Given the ongoing strength of our margins, we continue to get questions regarding relative margin performance among the large public builders. I want to quickly address a line of thought that our margins benefit from land positions within our older Del Webb legacy communities. The reality is that the margins in these communities are comparable to the rest of our active-adult business but they aren't inflating our aggregate numbers. That being said, I'm pleased to say that we expect to continue delivering high margins and continue to expect home sale gross margins to be in the range of 29% to 29.5% in the fourth quarter. Given current interest rates, demand and cost dynamics, we would expect to be towards the lower end of this range.

鑑於我們的利潤率持續強勁，我們不斷收到有關大型公共建築商相對利潤率表現的問題。我想快速闡述一個想法，即我們的利潤受益於我們舊的德爾韋伯遺產社區內的土地地位。現實情況是，這些社群的利潤率與我們其他活躍成人業務相當，但它們並沒有誇大我們的總數。話雖如此，我很高興地說，我們預計將繼續實現高利潤率，並繼續預計第四季度房屋銷售毛利率將在 29% 至 29.5% 的範圍內。考慮到目前的利率、需求和成本動態，我們預計將接近該範圍的下限。

SG&A expense in the third quarter totaled $353 million or 9.1% of home sale revenues. This compares with prior year SG&A expense of $350 million or 9.2% of home sale revenues. Based on anticipating closing volumes for the fourth quarter, we expect SG&A in the fourth quarter to be approximately 8.8%.

第三季的 SG&A 支出總計 3.53 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.1%。相較之下，前一年的 SG&A 費用為 3.5 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.2%。根據第四季的預期成交量，我們預計第四季的銷售、管理及行政費用約為 8.8%。

In the third quarter, pretax input from financial services was $29 million, up from $27.5 billion last year. While market conditions remain highly competitive for our financial services operations, the business benefited from a higher capture rate of 84% compared with 77% last year. Large increase in capture rate relates to the expanded use of rate-based incentives, which are executed through our mortgage operations.

第三季度，金融服務業的稅前投入為 2,900 萬美元，高於去年的 275 億美元。儘管市場條件對我們的金融服務業務來說仍然具有高度競爭性，但該業務受益於更高的捕獲率（84%），而去年為 77%。捕獲率的大幅提高與擴大使用基於利率的激勵措施有關，這些激勵措施是透過我們的抵押貸款業務執行的。

Looking at our taxes consistent with our prior guide. Our third quarter tax expense was $209 million or an effective tax rate of 24.6%. For the fourth quarter, we continue to guide to a tax rate of 24.5%. PulteGroup's bottom-line results showed net income for the quarter of $639 million or $2.90 per share, which is up from prior year net income of $628 million or $2.69 per share.

根據我們之前的指南查看我們的稅收。我們第三季的稅費為 2.09 億美元，有效稅率為 24.6%。第四季度，我們繼續指導稅率為24.5%。 PulteGroup 的底線業績顯示，本季淨利為 6.39 億美元，即每股 2.90 美元，高於去年同期的淨利潤 6.28 億美元，即每股 2.69 美元。

Given the ongoing financial strength and cash flow generation of our business, we repurchased 3.8 million shares from $300 million in the quarter. This is up from $180 million last year and $250 million in the second quarter of this year.

鑑於我們業務持續的財務實力和現金流量，我們在本季回購了 3 億美元的 380 萬股股票。這一數字高於去年的 1.8 億美元和今年第二季的 2.5 億美元。

In the third quarter, we also elected to allocate capital towards paying down a portion of our debt. In total, we retired $65 million of our 2026 and 2027 senior notes through open market transactions at prices slightly below par. Inclusive of these transactions, we lowered our debt-to-capital ratio to 16.5%, which is down 220 basis points from the start of '23 and down 600 basis points from the third quarter of '22. Adjusting for the $1.9 billion of cash on our balance sheet at quarter end, our net debt to capital ratio was less than 1%.

在第三季度，我們也選擇分配資本來償還部分債務。總的來說，我們透過公開市場交易以略低於票面價格的價格收回了 6,500 萬美元的 2026 年和 2027 年優先票據。包括這些交易在內，我們將債務資本比率降至 16.5%，比 2023 年年初下降了 220 個基點，比 22 年第三季下降了 600 個基點。調整季末資產負債表上的 19 億美元現金後，我們的淨負債與資本比率低於 1%。

Beyond buying back our equity and debt in the third quarter, we also invested $1.2 billion in the business through land acquisition and development, which keeps us on track to invest upwards of $4 billion in 2023. Almost 2/3 of our investment in the third quarter was for the development of our existing land assets.

除了在第三季回購股權和債務之外，我們還透過土地收購和開發向業務投資了12 億美元，這使我們預計在2023 年投資超過40 億美元。我們的投資中近2/3 投資於第三季季度用於開發我們現有的土地資產。

Inclusive of our Q3 spend, we ended the quarter with approximately 223,000 lots under control, of which 53% are held via option. We continue to systematically rebuild the optionality of our land pipeline after having walked away from select land positions in the back half of 2022. As part of this rebuilding process and consistent with our stated strategy of getting more (inaudible), we are expanding our use of differently land banking structures.

包括第三季的支出在內，本季末我們控制了約 223,000 手，其中 53% 透過選擇權持有。在2022 年下半年放棄選定的土地位置後，我們繼續有系統地重建土地管道的選擇性。作為重建過程的一部分，並與我們既定的獲得更多（聽不清楚）的策略相一致，我們正在擴大我們的使用不同的土地儲備結構。

To date, we've completed land banking transactions for approximately 5,000 lots. Going forward, we will look to use such land banking facilities in order to create optionality in situations where the underlying seller requires a bulk sale. It's a disciplined process as we work to balance land costs, returns and risks but we are gaining momentum in our efforts.

到目前為止，我們已完成約 5,000 塊土地的土地儲備交易。展望未來，我們將尋求使用此類土地儲備設施，以便在標的賣家需要批量出售的情況下創造選擇性。這是一個嚴格的過程，我們努力平衡土地成本、回報和風險，但我們的努力正在獲得動力。

We are also getting more questions on our land pipeline. So let me add that about 1/3 of the lots we have under control are developed, and we continue to develop most of the lots that we acquire. As a large homebuilder, assuming you're confident in the third party's ability to consistently deliver developed lots on time, the decision to purchase finished lots versus (inaudible) comes down to return. Finished lots cost more but can turn faster, whereas the lower cost of undeveloped plots can drive higher margins but the land is on balance sheet for a little long term. In all of our land transactions we assess how best to drive higher risk-adjusted returns and to find opportunities and deals for finished and/or undeveloped plots.

我們也收到了更多有關我們的陸地管道的問題。因此，我要補充一點，我們控制下的地塊中約有 1/3 已開發，並且我們將繼續開發我們獲得的大部分地塊。作為一家大型住宅建築商，假設您對第三方始終如一地按時交付開發的地塊的能力充滿信心，那麼購買成品地塊與（聽不清楚）的決定歸結為回報。已完工地塊的成本更高，但周轉速度更快，而未開發地塊的成本較低，可以帶來更高的利潤，但土地在資產負債表上的存在時間較長。在我們所有的土地交易中，我們評估如何最好地推動更高的風險調整回報，並為已完工和/或未開發的地塊尋找機會和交易。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan.

現在讓我把電話轉回給瑞安。

As you would anticipate, given our 43% increase in net new orders, we saw strong demand throughout the quarter. Q3 displayed more typical seasonality than we have experienced in the 3 years since COVID as absorption pace eased as we moved through the quarter. Demand has been a little choppier in the first few weeks of October, with more volatility in the day-to-day sales numbers. I'm sure for some buyers, higher rates have pushed affordability just that much further away while others may be worried about their jobs. For other buyers, global unrest may simply have them thinking of other things. We are fortunate to have an experienced operating team that will make adjustments if and when needed.

正如您所預料的那樣，鑑於我們的淨新訂單增長了 43%，我們看到整個季度的需求強勁。第三季的季節性特徵比新冠疫情以來的 3 年來更典型，因為隨著本季的推進，吸收速度有所放緩。十月的前幾週，需求略有波動，日常銷售數據波動更大。我確信對於一些買家來說，更高的利率已經將負擔能力推得更遠，而其他人可能會擔心他們的工作。對於其他買家來說，全球動盪可能只是讓他們考慮其他事情。我們很幸運擁有一支經驗豐富的營運團隊，可以在需要時進行調整。

On a year-over-year basis, for the first 9 months of 2023, we have increased net income by $156 million and increased earnings per share by 17%. Over the same period, we've increased our cash position by approximately $1.6 billion while dropping our net debt-to-capital ratio effectively to 0. And based on guidance that we've given, we look forward to delivering exceptional full year results for 2023.

與去年同期相比，2023 年前 9 個月，我們的淨利潤增加了 1.56 億美元，每股收益增加了 17%。同期，我們的現金部位增加了約 16 億美元，同時將淨債務與資本比率有效降至 0。根據我們給出的指導，我們期待為以下公司帶來出色的全年業績： 2023 年。

From population growth and demographics to supply dynamics and the tremendous opportunity for wealth creation through homeownership, we are bullish on long-term housing demand. Over the near term, however, we fully appreciate the affordability challenges being created by higher mortgage rates and the potential impacts from an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve is hoping to bring about. As such, we remain disciplined in how we operate our business, particularly as it relates to investing in land the pace production, the allocation of capital and the quality of homes and experience we deliver to our customers.

從人口成長和人口結構到供應動態以及透過擁有住房創造財富的巨大機會，我們看好長期住房需求。然而，在短期內，我們充分認識到抵押貸款利率上升帶來的負擔能力挑戰以及聯準會希望帶來的經濟放緩的潛在影響。因此，我們在業務運營方面保持嚴格，特別是在土地投資、生產速度、資本配置以及我們為客戶提供的住宅品質和體驗方面。

We have a clear and successful operating model against which we have been executing for over a decade. So decision-making throughout the organization is consistent and actions are implemented quickly. This strong organizational foundation along with tremendous financial strength has PulteGroup well positioned for ongoing success.

我們擁有清晰且成功的營運模式，十多年來我們一直在執行該模式。因此，整個組織的決策是一致的，行動也能迅速實施。強大的組織基礎和巨大的財務實力使 PulteGroup 處於持續成功的有利位置。

In closing, I want to thank the entire team at PulteGroup for their tremendous efforts in delivering for our home buyers, our shareholders and each other. I am so proud of what you accomplish every day.

最後，我要感謝 PulteGroup 的整個團隊為我們的購屋者、股東和彼此所做的巨大努力。我為你每天所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

Let me turn the call back to Jim so we can begin Q&A.

讓我把電話轉回給吉姆，這樣我們就可以開始問答了。

Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions so we can get to -- excuse me, so as we can get to as many questions as possible during the remaining time of this call.

謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備開始提問，這樣我們就可以——對不起，這樣我們就可以在本次電話會議的剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Avi, we're ready to open for Q&A.

Avi，我們準備好開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt 提出的第一個問題。

I want to first just ask about the cycle time numbers. You talked about 140, trying to get down below 100 next year. So it's more than a month off. What specifically Ryan needs to happen for those numbers to go down? Where are the best and most obvious lever points?

我想先詢問週期時間數字。你談到了 140，明年要努力降到 100 以下。於是就休息了一個多月了。為了使這些數字下降，瑞安需要做什麼？最好、最明顯的槓桿點在哪裡？

Yes. Carl, so a lot of the work has already been done. And what we're seeing is some of the homes that are delivering now and maybe more better said the homes that are starting now are on cycle times that will yield that overall cycle time of below 100 days. So it's really about getting kind of the older stuff that's been in the pipeline that's got longer cycle times that as those numbers close out, I think we'll see our overall cycle times come in line with that target of 100 days.

是的。卡爾，所以很多工作已經完成了。我們看到的是一些正在交付的房屋，也許更好地說，現在正在交付的房屋的周期時間將導致總週期時間低於 100 天。因此，這實際上是為了獲得一些已經在管道中的舊產品，這些產品的周期時間更長，隨著這些數字的結束，我認為我們將看到我們的整體週期時間與 100 天的目標一致。

Right. And then you mentioned the choppiness in October, and I wondered if you could expand a little on that and talk a little bit maybe about performance among the 3 segments in the month so far or particular markets? And then also from a cancellation perspective, if that's beginning to sort of impact you in October, too?

正確的。然後您提到了 10 月份的波動，我想知道您是否可以對此進行一些擴展，並談談迄今為止該月 3 個細分市場或特定市場的表現？然後從取消的角度來看，這是否也開始對 10 月的您產生影響？

Yes, Carl, happy to talk on October. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we've seen sales in October, while good, they've been a little bit choppier than the day-to-day kind of numbers have been a little choppier. I think that the biggest thing that I'd want you to hear is that similar to what we saw in the third quarter, we actually have seen a return to what we would consider seasonal type sign-up trends that we experienced pre-COVID. And we've seen that continue into October.

是的，卡爾，很高興在十月與您交談。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們看到 10 月的銷售情況雖然不錯，但比日常數字有點波動。我認為我最想讓你們聽到的是，與我們在第三季度看到的情況類似，我們實際上已經看到了我們所認為的季節性類型註冊趨勢的回歸，就像我們在新冠疫情之前經歷過的那樣。我們看到這種情況一直持續到十月。

On an absorption rate, the numbers that we're seeing on absorptions per community are pretty similar to what we saw in 2018 and 2019. Pre-COVID levels, which are pretty healthy. So all things considered, we feel pretty good about the continued ongoing desire for homeownership. And it's not lost on any of you out there listening, rates matter. And there's been a lot of rate movement over the last 30 days. And so I think the consumer, all things considered has handled that really well.

就吸收率而言，我們看到的每個社區的吸收數字與我們在 2018 年和 2019 年看到的非常相似。新冠疫情之前的水平非常健康。因此，考慮到所有因素，我們對人們對住房所有權的持續渴望感到非常滿意。對於任何在場聆聽的人來說，價格都很重要。過去 30 天利率發生了很大的變化。所以我認為消費者，考慮到所有的事情，處理得非常好。

And we will take our next question from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行馬修·布利 (Matthew Bouley) 提出的下一個問題。

Just a question around some of the comments you made at the top, Ryan, around addressing affordability and some of the challenges you're seeing, particularly with the first-time buyer. Any additional elaboration on what you're doing with incentives and rate buydowns and what's working and not working as we get into September and October? And sort of the margin implications of all that?

瑞安，我只是想問一下您在高層發表的一些評論，涉及解決負擔能力問題以及您所看到的一些挑戰，特別是對於首次購房者。進入 9 月和 10 月後，您是否可以進一步詳細說明您在激勵措施和利率購買方面所做的工作以及哪些措施有效，哪些措施無效？所有這些對利潤率的影響是什麼？

Yes. Matt, thanks for the question. We continue to use the permanent 30-year buydown is probably a most powerful incentive. Right now, we've got national incentives that offer 5.75% on a 30-year fixed. So I think given rates today on the open market would be over 8% to be able to get a new home and a great location of the quality and the design features that we have at 5.75%, I think, is pretty powerful.

是的。馬特，謝謝你的提問。我們繼續使用30年永久回購可能是最有力的激勵。目前，我們的國家獎勵措施為 30 年期固定利率提供 5.75% 的利率。因此，我認為目前在公開市場上購買新房的利率將超過 8%，而且我們擁有的品質和設計功能的絕佳位置，我認為 5.75% 的利率非常強大。

I'll remind everybody what we've done is we've simply redistributed incentives that we've historically offered toward cabinets and countertops and things of that nature, we've redirected those to interest rate incentives, and I think that's the -- that's been the most powerful thing for that buyer group.

我要提醒大家，我們所做的是，我們只是重新分配了我們歷來為櫥櫃、檯面和類似性質的東西提供的激勵措施，我們將這些激勵措施重新定向為利率激勵措施，我認為這就是——對該買家群體來說，這是最有影響力的事情。

Got it. Okay. That's really helpful. And then secondly, just one on stick and brick costs. Just as you're addressing these issues and presumably, there is margin pressure out of that and the housing market has evolved here. What are you guys doing around construction costs, labor sort of ability to kind of push back on all that? How should we think about that over these next few months?

知道了。好的。這真的很有幫助。其次，只需一根棍子和磚塊的成本。正如您正在解決這些問題一樣，想必，存在著利潤壓力，房地產市場已經在這裡發展。你們在建築成本、勞動方面做了什麼來抵制這一切？在接下來的幾個月我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. Well, look, inflation is real. And we've previously talked about something in the neighborhood of 8% to 9% year-over-year inflation, which I think is part of the reason we're in the rate environment that (inaudible) as the Feds trying to get a handle on that. What we've seen on our cost to build is on a year-over-year basis, we've -- we were actually flat. Now that's a lot of commodity and material and labor increase in a number of categories that's been offset by lumber safe. So headline is we're flat on a price per square foot to build year-over-year but it's a lot of increases in material and labor offset by lumber.

是的。好吧，看，通貨膨脹是真實存在的。我們之前討論過年同比通膨率在 8% 到 9% 左右的問題，我認為這是我們處於利率環境（聽不清楚）的部分原因，因為聯準會試圖獲得處理那個。我們所看到的建設成本與去年同期相比，實際上是持平的。現在，許多類別的商品、材料和勞動力的大量增加已被木材安全所抵消。因此，標題是我們每平方英尺的建造價格與去年同期持平，但材料和勞動力的大量增加被木材抵消了。

We will take our next question from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut 提出的下一個問題。

Just wanted to kind of take a step back and understand some of the dynamics. You talked about October being choppy but at the same time, it sounds like more in line with seasonality pre-COVID. And you also -- the flip side of that is with volume, you're putting out a gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter. Maybe a touch down from 3Q. Can you just give us a sense of the level of incentives if through your own offerings in October or maybe even more broadly in the marketplace, have you feel like incentives have started to come up over the last couple of months? Because certainly, I guess, in the near term, you're looking for a similar gross margin, and maybe just more broadly, how you feel the market is reacting to either September and October?

只是想退後一步並了解一些動態。您談到十月波動較大，但同時，這聽起來更符合新冠疫情爆發前的季節性。另一方面，您也提出了第四季的毛利率指引。也許是從第三季觸地得分。您能否讓我們了解一下激勵措施的水平？透過您自己 10 月份的產品，或者更廣泛的市場，您是否覺得過去幾個月激勵措施已經開始出現？因為當然，我想，在短期內，您正在尋找類似的毛利率，也許更廣泛地說，您認為市場對 9 月和 10 月的反應如何？

Yes, Mike. I'll take part of that, and then I'll have Bob talk about the incentives load. But as demonstrated by our orders in the quarter, we had 43% growth in new orders, and it was a number of over 7,000. So I think we've clearly demonstrated that we've got the ability to sell homes. You've heard me talk about not being margin proud. But at the same time, we're not going to give away price and incentives that we don't have to. And I think we did exactly that in the third quarter. And we've continued to kind of focus on making sure that we're turning the asset, and we're getting the number of absorptions that we need in every single community to deliver the best return on invested capital that we can.

是的，麥克。我將參與其中，然後我將讓鮑勃談論激勵負載。但從我們本季的訂單來看，我們的新訂單增加了 43%，數量超過了 7000 個。所以我認為我們已經清楚地證明了我們有能力出售房屋。你聽過我說過不要以保證金為榮。但同時，我們不會放棄不必要的價格和激勵措施。我認為我們在第三季就做到了這一點。我們繼續專注於確保我們正在轉變資產，並且我們正在每個社區中獲得我們所需的吸收數量，以盡可能提供最佳的投資資本回報。

So Look, I think it was a great quarter. We're happy with how sign-ups are performed in October. You heard me kind of talk about that on the question that Carl asked so I won't repeat it.

所以看，我認為這是一個很棒的季度。我們對 10 月份的註冊情況感到滿意。你聽到我在卡爾問的問題上談到了這一點，所以我不再重複。

And then, Bob, if you can maybe just talk a little bit about the incentive load?

然後，鮑勃，您是否可以談談激勵負載？

Yes, Mike, you can see in our data, we've got about a 6% incentive load that's $35,000 a unit rough math. That actually is down 10 basis points from Q2 of this year. It is certainly up. It was 2.2% last year but the sales environment that led to the closings in Q3 of last year were dramatically different. So you can see kind of a normalization here at 6%. I think you can take from our margin guide from Q3 that what we see closing in the fourth quarter. And we've got pretty good visibility into that at this moment, it will not be significantly impactful.

是的，麥克，你可以在我們的數據中看到，我們有大約 6% 的激勵負載，粗略計算，每單位 35,000 美元。實際上比今年第二季下降了 10 個基點。肯定漲了。去年為 2.2%，但導致去年第三季成交的銷售環境卻截然不同。所以你可以看到這裡的正常化程度是 6%。我認為您可以從我們第三季的利潤率指南中得知我們預計第四季度的情況。目前我們已經對此有了很好的了解，但它不會產生重大影響。

I would highlight, we've given a continuation of that same guide at 29% to 29.5% on margins. We have told you we're going to be at the lower end of that. So there is some cost to this interest rate environment.

我要強調的是，我們延續了相同的指導方針，利潤率為 29% 至 29.5%。我們已經告訴過你，我們將處於最低水平。因此，這種利率環境是有一定成本的。

Right. No, I appreciate that, Bob. I guess, secondly, maybe bigger picture conceptually, you talked about earlier in the call, questions around your higher gross margin versus your peer group. When you think about the 6% today versus the 2% a year ago. And I don't know if that's 6%, I want to say it's a little bit above your longer-term average, maybe around 3%. How does that square with the level of gross margins you're generating today?

正確的。不，我很感激，鮑伯。我想，其次，也許從概念上講，您在電話會議的早些時候談到了有關您與同行相比更高毛利率的問題。當你想想今天的 6% 與一年前的 2% 相比。我不知道這是否是 6%，我想說它比你們的長期平均略高一點，也許在 3% 左右。這與您今天產生的毛利率水準有何關係？

And if you think about over the next couple of years, we've heard different things from different builders about maybe increasing hurdle rates from underwriting about -- just thinking about how higher cost land perhaps might blow through over the next couple of years. If incentive levels stay where they are, would that suggest kind of a moderation a little bit from the current level of gross margins or how should we think conceptually about the next couple of years directionally for this metric?

如果你考慮未來幾年，我們從不同的建築商那裡聽到了不同的事情，關於可能會增加承保的門檻率——只要想想未來幾年更高成本的土地可能會如何發展。如果激勵水準保持不變，這是否意味著當前的毛利率水準會有所放緩，或者我們應該如何從概念上思考該指標未來幾年的方向？

Yes, Mike, our crystal ball at this point, a couple of years out, we're not there yet. We're still kind of focused on Q4. We've given a guide for that quarter when we get to kind of the end of Q4, we'll certainly give a full year guide for the balance of 2024. But maybe the thing I do want to address is the incentive load that we currently have, that is allowing us to offer incentives on the interest rate, that's been in our margin guide for the entire -- our margin guide and our results for the entire year.

是的，麥克，我們的水晶球在這一點上，幾年後，我們還沒有達到目標。我們仍然關注第四季。當我們到第四季度末時，我們已經給出了該季度的指南，我們肯定會給出 2024 年剩餘時間的全年指南。但也許我真正想要解決的是我們的激勵負載目前，這使我們能夠提供利率激勵，這已包含在我們全年的保證金指南中——我們的保證金指南和全年的業績。

So you're seeing the impact of offering below-market interest rates as an incentive. It's been in Q2 results, it has been -- it was in our Q3 results, and it's in our Q4 guide. So no guidance about what margin direction will be beyond Q4 of this year. But that's all embedded in our -- to this point, everything that we've been doing that's embedded in the results that we've delivered and the guide that we've given.

因此，您會看到提供低於市場利率作為激勵措施的影響。它存在於第二季的結果中，它一直存在於我們的第三季的結果中，並存在於我們的第四季指南中。因此，沒有關於今年第四季之後利潤率方向的指導。但這一切都已融入我們的工作中——到目前為止，我們所做的一切都已融入我們交付的結果和我們提供的指南中。

And we will take our next question from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

我們將回答德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer 提出的下一個問題。

And I appreciate the data point about the active-adult community in Michigan, hopefully, snow removal is included in that HOA fee.

我很欣賞密西根州活躍成人社區的數據點，希望除雪能包含在 HOA 費用中。

(inaudible) to this, Joe.

（聽不清楚）對此，喬。

Good look, market conditions, that's what's going to determine the margin volume and price into next year, I think it's an underappreciated element of your business. Of course, the composition of that can vary, right, within the definition of success. But you are obviously appropriately acknowledging the headwinds here. Maybe if you could just talk instead to the return headwind from this instead of either the absorption headwind or the gross margin headwind? Just how are you thinking about turns on capital and then similarly, returns on inventory? If interest rates remain high, you're basically at net 0 debt now, just how you're thinking about ROE relative to ROI?

良好的外觀、市場狀況，這將決定明年的利潤和價格，我認為這是您業務中一個被低估的要素。當然，在成功的定義範圍內，其組成可能會有所不同。但你顯然適當地承認了這裡的逆風。也許您可以只談論由此帶來的回報逆風，而不是吸收逆風或毛利率逆風？您如何看待資本週轉率以及庫存報酬率？如果利率仍然很高，那麼您現在基本上處於淨債務為零，您如何看待相對於投資回報率的淨資產收益率？

Yes. Joe, thanks for the question, and I'll do my best to give you an answer. We've -- for the last decade, maybe even going on 12 years the way that we've operated the business has been with a singular focus on delivering the best possible return on invested capital that we can, given the capital-intensive nature of this business, we -- for us, we think that's the best way to make decisions and to operationalize a -- operationalize our platform in a way that delivers high return on assets, high return on equity, whatever metric you want to look at. I think we've clearly done that.

是的。喬，謝謝你的提問，我會盡力回答你。考慮到資本密集的性質，在過去的十年中，甚至可能持續了 12 年，我們經營業務的方式一直專注於盡可能提供最佳的投資資本回報對於這項業務，我們認為這是做出決策和營運的最佳方式，以提供高資產回報率、高股本回報率（無論您想看什麼指標）的方式來經營我們的平台。我認為我們已經明確地做到了這一點。

I highlighted in my prepared remarks that for the trailing 12 months, we delivered return on equity over 30%. And part of that is derived from running a good business but also a very thoughtful and disciplined way in allocating capital, which includes things beyond just buying land and building homes. We are paying a dividend, we bought back near 45% of the company over the last 10 to 12 years that we've had our share buyback program in place. And we just highlighted this quarter, we opportunistically took advantage of the opportunity to buy some debt in -- near-term debt in that was trading below par.

我在準備好的發言中強調，在過去 12 個月裡，我們的股本報酬率超過 30%。其中一部分來自於經營良好的企業，但也來自於一種非常深思熟慮和嚴格的資本分配方式，其中包括不僅僅是購買土地和建造房屋的事情。我們正在支付股息，在實施股票回購計畫的過去 10 到 12 年裡，我們回購了公司近 45% 的股份。我們剛剛強調，本季度，我們機會主義地利用這個機會購買了一些交易價格低於面額的短期債務。

So we'll -- I think maybe the best way I can describe it, Joe, we're going to continue to focus on buying assets in great spots, turning those in a way that delivers high return on invested capital, and one of the other kind of things that, I think can also continue to give us flexibility and return-enhancing leverage is moving our land options to 70%. So we sit at 53% today. We've given you kind of a long-term target of 70%. We've got things in place and work underway that will help us get there.

因此，我們將——我想這也許是我能描述的最好的方式，喬，我們將繼續專注於在好地方購買資產，以一種能夠帶來高投資資本回報的方式轉變這些資產，其中之一我認為，另一件事也可以繼續為我們提供靈活性和提高回報的槓桿，將我們的土地選擇提高到 70%。所以我們今天的支持率是 53%。我們給了你 70% 的長期目標。我們已經做好了一切準備並正在進行工作，這將有助於我們實現這一目標。

I appreciate all those thoughts, Ryan. Yes. And as a follow-up, just maybe on the comment around matching starts to orders. Should we interpret that as roughly 7,000 starts in the fourth quarter? Or is that more of a comment on what the fourth quarter orders look like, that's what your starts might look like?

我很欣賞所有這些想法，瑞安。是的。作為後續行動，也許只是關於匹配開始到訂單的評論。我們是否應該將其解釋為第四季度大約有 7,000 場首發？或者這更多的是對第四季度訂單情況的評論，這就是您的開工？

Yes. Fourth quarter starts will be more reflective of order trends that we're seeing in the fourth quarter. We're starting more spec than we historically have as we've highlighted that we've completely moved our first-time business to a spec business. So some of that's predetermined based on what we saw in the third quarter and what we would anticipate. But we're just not going to get into kind of a position where we've got to build up of spec inventory that creates pressure to do things that are unnatural on the pricing front. But we are going to put some units in the ground to have those ready for Q1, you saw us do that last year -- in the back half of last year that set us up for a really strong Q1 of 2023.

是的。第四季的開工將更能反映我們在第四季看到的訂單趨勢。我們正在開始比歷史上更多的規格，因為我們強調我們已經將首次業務完全轉移到規格業務。因此，其中一些是根據我們在第三季度看到的情況和我們的預期預先確定的。但我們不會陷入這樣的境地：我們必須建立規格庫存，從而產生壓力，在定價方面做一些不自然的事情。但我們將投入一些單位，為第一季做好準備，去年下半年我們就這麼做了，這為我們在 2023 年第一季的強勁表現做好了準備。

So I want you to hear a balanced approach inventories going into the ground. We're going to have it ready for Q1, but we are going to be responsive to some of the headwinds that we've acknowledged are out there in this current interest rate environment.

所以我希望你們聽到一種平衡的庫存方法。我們將為第一季做好準備，但我們將應對我們已經承認的當前利率環境中存在的一些不利因素。

And we will take our next question from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們將回答 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim 提出的下一個問題。

Great job. Exciting times. Ryan, in your opening remarks, you sort of talked about some of the reasons why some of the ways in which buyers seem to be responding to the rates. And you sort of contrasted or laid out that there's a psychological component maybe math versus mental. And I'm curious -- and you talked about the role of buy downs in that. So, my first question relates to how you think -- let's do it this way, what percent of your buyers are taking the rate buydown? And when you're negotiating these buydowns, you've talked about the 5.75% through the end of this year, it looks like. Where are you setting new locks because I imagine you're negotiating those now for the next batch. Where are you setting those locks from a contracted rate perspective?

做得好。激動人心的時刻。瑞安，在您的開場白中，您談到了買家對價格做出某些反應的一些原因。你有點對比或指出，有一個心理成分，可能是數學與心理。我很好奇——你談到了減持在其中的作用。所以，我的第一個問題與您的想法有關 - 讓我們這樣做，您的買家中有多少百分比接受利率下調？當你在談判這些收購時，你已經談到了今年年底的 5.75%，看起來是這樣。你在哪裡設置新鎖，因為我想你現在正在為下一批進行談判。從合約利率的角度來看，你在哪裡設定這些鎖定？

Yes. Stephen, it's Bob. The -- it's an evergreen process. Honestly, we are buying contracts typically weekly, actually, and they are market-based. We set the pricing on that, and that determines the price to us to offer that value to the consumer. So the rate that Ryan talked about is a negotiated price. And essentially, we fill the cost of provide -- of being able to provide that contract rate to our consumer. There's an upfront fee for purchasing the contract and then there's the rate buydown as part of that. And so it's -- there's -- it's not like we're buying now for 3 and 6 months from now. These are contracts that we enter into that we expect to fill candidly within 30 days. And typically, we're filling them within a week.

是的。史蒂芬，是鮑伯。這是一個常青的過程。老實說，實際上，我們通常每週購買合約，而且它們是基於市場的。我們以此為基礎定價，決定了我們向消費者提供該價值的價格。所以Ryan所說的價格是一個協商價格。從本質上講，我們填補了提供成本——能夠向我們的消費者提供合約價格。購買合約需要支付預付費用，然後還有利率購買費用。所以，我們現在不會在 3 到 6 個月內購買。我們簽訂了這些合同，希望在 30 天內坦誠履行。通常，我們會在一周內填滿它們。

So it's very market responsive. As rates go up, it's why you've seen what we've offered has moved up a little bit. We've increased our cost as part of that to a degree. So it's a process we've been working through for, gosh, 10 or 11 months now since we put it in place, and we found it works pretty well.

所以它的市場反應非常靈敏。隨著費率上漲，您會發現我們提供的服務有所提高。我們在一定程度上增加了成本。所以自從我們實施以來，我們已經花了 10 或 11 個月的時間來完成這個過程，我們發現它運作得非常好。

So just what I'm understanding that it sounds like you're talking about is you have a forward purchase commitment that you're doing on a relatively short-term basis but then you're also layering on top of that an individual rate buydown sort (inaudible) if you will?

因此，據我所知，您所說的聽起來像是您在相對短期的基礎上做出的遠期購買承諾，但除此之外您還疊加了個人利率購買承諾排序（聽不清），如果你願意的話？

These are 30-year rate buydowns for the consumer.

這些是消費者的 30 年期利率購買。

All right.

好的。

Stephen, the other thing that I would -- I'd maybe just add to your conversation is some buyers, they take the available incentives that we have, they can get them all the way to 5.75%. There are other buyers that decide that they don't need to go all the way to 5.75%, and they'd like to have a little bit higher rate and use some of the other incentive money that we're offering for other things that they see value in.

史蒂芬，我想說的另一件事 - 我可能會在你的談話中添加一些買家，他們接受我們提供的可用激勵措施，他們可以將其提高到 5.75%。還有其他買家決定他們不需要一直達到 5.75%，他們希望利率稍高一點，並使用我們提供的其他激勵資金來購買其他東西他們看到了價值。

So, we're seeing about 80% to 85% of our buyers are getting some form of incentive toward interest rates. That doesn't mean everybody will go to 5.75%, just some fraction of our total sales end up in that very lowest category. The big headline is that we've got the tools out there and our sales team has got the tools out there to help individually solve what each and every buyer needs to make the transaction work for them.

因此，我們看到大約 80% 到 85% 的買家獲得了某種形式的利率誘因。這並不意味著每個人都會達到 5.75%，只是我們總銷售額的一小部分最終會進入這個最低類別。最重要的標題是，我們已經擁有了工具，我們的銷售團隊也擁有了可以幫助單獨解決每個買家所需的工具，以使交易對他們有利。

And maybe to put a finer point on that. Ryan said 80% to 85% of the people have an incentive program. Only 25% of the business in the quarter was through that national campaign that we -- you asked about. So those are targeted to specific inventory units typically but we offer incentives to all of our consumers, we always have. And as Ryan has stated already today, the vast majority of those incentives now across all of our buyers is financing oriented.

也許可以對此提出更明確的觀點。 Ryan 表示，80% 到 85% 的人都有激勵計畫。本季只有 25% 的業務是透過您所詢問的全國性活動實現的。因此，這些通常針對特定的庫存單位，但我們一直向所有消費者提供激勵措施。正如瑞安今天所說，現在我們所有買家的絕大多數激勵措施都是以融資為導向的。

Yes. Okay. That was really helpful. I appreciate the -- all the nuances there. My second question relates to getting back to sort of the seasonality, and it sounds like you've acknowledged that seasonality is sort of coming back into the business. We're, as we in -- the fourth quarter, it's a little weird, right, because the housing market kind of generally slows particularly in the last 6 weeks of the year. And I'm curious as to your posture as you assess the buyers, are you anticipating -- do you generally think that there's relatively more inelasticity on the part of the buyer -- or relatively less elasticity might be a better way of saying it?

是的。好的。這真的很有幫助。我很欣賞那裡的所有細微差別。我的第二個問題涉及季節性的問題，聽起來你已經承認季節性正在回歸到業務中。正如我們在第四季度一樣，這有點奇怪，對吧，因為房地產市場普遍放緩，尤其是在一年的最後六週。我很好奇你在評估買家時的態度，你是否預期——你通常認為買家的彈性相對更大——或者彈性相對較小可能是更好的說法？

So that it incentive -- it causes you maybe not to push so aggressively on incentive to try to keep up sales momentum in the last 6 weeks of the year, kind of like pushing on a string. Is that a reasonable way to be thinking about how you're likely to approach the market over the next 6 weeks -- sorry, in the last 6 weeks of the year?

所以它會激勵——它會讓你在一年的最後六週內不要如此積極地推動激勵措施來保持銷售勢頭，有點像推動一條繩子。這是一個合理的方式來思考你在接下來的 6 週內（抱歉，在今年的最後 6 週內）可能如何進入市場？

And then lastly, regarding risk, you had talked about wanting to evaluate all of your land actions in terms of risk-adjusted returns but you're also running at a super low net debt to cap. And I'm curious if you move to lower risk through increased incentive -- increased land banking, would it be reasonable to think you'll also carry increased leverage than you currently are today?

最後，關於風險，您曾談到希望根據風險調整後的回報來評估您所有的土地行動，但您的淨債務上限也超低。我很好奇，如果你透過增加激勵措施——增加土地儲備來降低風險，那麼你是否會合理地認為你的槓桿率也會比現在更高？

Yes. Stephen, we are very -- we're at a lower leverage rate than what we've historically run at. I think that's really more than anything. It's a testament to the strength of the business. We've been operating really well and we have been generating a lot of cash. We've really been touching kind of all of the critical parts of our capital allocation philosophy. We've invested a lot of money into land and land development. We've been paying our dividend. We've bought back the highest single quarter spend in shares this year in the third quarter at $300 million and we bought back some debt. So -- and with that, we still grew the cash balance. So I think it really demonstrates how strong the business is operating.

是的。史蒂芬，我們的槓桿率比我們歷史上的水準要低。我認為這真的比什麼都重要。這是企業實力的證明。我們經營得非常好，並且產生了大量現金。我們確實已經觸及了我們資本配置理念的所有關鍵部分。我們在土地和土地開發方面投入了大量資金。我們一直在支付股息。第三季我們回購了今年單季最高的股票支出，達 3 億美元，回購了一些債務。因此，我們仍然增加了現金餘額。所以我認為這確實表明了該業務的運作有多強勁。

In terms of kind of your question on kind of pricing and discounts, and elasticity or inelasticity, we're going to continue to price and set incentives at a level that we think are appropriate for the market. We're going to be responsive. We're not going to be margin proud. At the same time, I think we've got a good understanding of what value is. And I -- you shouldn't expect to see kind of the national year-end blowout red tag kind of screaming baby sale from us. I don't think that helps the consumer. But I think you're seeing us put the appropriate incentive load such that we're turning the asset, we're turning the inventory. We're making sure that we're getting a minimum of kind of 2 sales per active community, which is kind of a level that I think you need to be at in production homebuilding to deliver the types of return on assets, return on inventory, return on invested capital that we want.

就您關於定價和折扣、彈性或無彈性的問題而言，我們將繼續在我們認為適合市場的水平上定價並設定激勵措施。我們將做出回應。我們不會以利潤為榮。同時，我認為我們對什麼是價值有了很好的理解。我——你不應該指望我們會看到全國年終井噴式的紅色標籤尖叫嬰兒促銷活動。我認為這對消費者沒有幫助。但我認為你會看到我們施加了適當的激勵負載，以便我們正在轉變資產，我們正在轉變庫存。我們確保每個活躍社區至少獲得 2 筆銷售額，我認為這是生產住宅建築中需要達到的水平，以提供資產回報率、庫存回報率，我們想要的投資資本回報率。

We will take our next question from Ken Zener with Seaport Research Partners.

我們將回答來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener 提出的下一個問題。

Just want to delve into the option impact on your margins. So I think you've been saying options have been about 19% of your ASP. Is that still where we're at in terms of the options?

只是想深入研究選擇權對您的利潤的影響。所以我認為您一直在說選擇權約佔您的平均售價的 19%。就選擇而言，我們仍然處於這種狀態嗎？

Yes. We've talked about our options and lot premiums being a consistent driver of value. It's part of the way we go to market. We think it's one of the strengths of our sales process. In the most recent quarter, that was $107,000, it's up to $3,000 a sequentially and year-over-year. So that is still part of our sales operation. It's how we go to market. And yes, 20% is roughly where we are. I wouldn't expect that to change as long as market dynamics stay where they are.

是的。我們已經討論過我們的選擇權和批次溢價是價值的持續驅動因素。這是我們進入市場的方式的一部分。我們認為這是我們銷售流程的優點之一。在最近一個季度，該數字為 107,000 美元，環比和同比均上升至 3,000 美元。所以這仍然是我們銷售業務的一部分。這就是我們進入市場的方式。是的，20% 大致就是我們現在的水準。只要市場動態保持不變，我預計這種情況就不會改變。

Right. And so I guess what we talked about since last quarter was options are obviously higher margin. One could imply that's accounting for historically that 300 or 400 basis point lift on gross margins versus peers. So as that option mix, can you kind of relate what is the cost of -- or what was the drag specifically for all the mortgage rate buy-downs? So 5.75% versus the 8% now, like what is the net impact on your gross margins? I realize it's part of incentive but if you could quantify that.

正確的。所以我想我們自上個季度以來所討論的是選擇權的利潤率明顯更高。有人可能暗示，這就是歷史上毛利率較同業提高 300 或 400 個基點的原因。那麼，作為該選項組合，您能否將所有抵押貸款利率下調的成本或具體拖累是什麼聯繫起來？那麼 5.75% 與現在的 8% 相比，對毛利率的淨影響是多少？我意識到這是激勵的一部分，但如果你能量化它的話。

And then what is the actual kind of the distribution of that? It seems like an active-adult paying cash doesn't need it. So is that largely occurring in the first-time buyer? I mean, I heard the 80% but I'm just trying to kind of understand that spread usage relative to these options, which are structurally a good tailwind for you?

那麼它的實際分佈是什麼樣的呢？似乎活躍的成年人支付現金並不需要它。那麼這種情況主要發生在首次購屋者身上嗎？我的意思是，我聽到了 80%，但我只是想了解相對於這些選項的價差使用情況，這些選項在結構上對您來說是一個很好的推動力？

And then I guess that's one. And then second, your mention of finished lots, very interesting because you're return focused. So I think, the Street is too focused on margins, not focused enough on returns. Did you have or what percent of closings in the quarter came from finished lots? And what's kind of the margin impact of that as well? I appreciate you answering those two sets of questions.

然後我想那就是其中之一。其次，你提到了成品批次，非常有趣，因為你專注於回報。所以我認為，華爾街過度關注利潤率，對回報關注不夠。本季的成交量是否來自成品批次？或有多少百分比來自成品批次？這對利潤率有何影響？我感謝您回答這兩組問題。

Right. So Ken, there's a lot there. Let me start with that. I highlighted this before, our incentive load is about 6%, $35,000. So that would tell you 6%, 6.3%, something like that. And again, I think we've highlighted the majority of that incentive is rate buy-down or financing support. So I think that's the answer to your first question. And I apologize. Your second question was, I think what percentage of our...

正確的。肯，那裡有很多東西。讓我從那開始。我之前強調過這一點，我們的激勵負擔約為 6%，即 35,000 美元。所以這會告訴你 6%、6.3% 之類的東西。再說一遍，我認為我們已經強調了大部分激勵措施是利率下調或融資支持。所以我認為這就是你第一個問題的答案。我道歉。你的第二個問題是，我想我們的......的百分比是多少？

Right -- you were talking returns, right? Like you're a return-based company, even though the Street and you guys focus a lot on margins. So to the extent the first-time buyer, more spec, finished lots, so you get better turns. You guys mentioned finished lots, I believe, for the first-time. So what is the impact of the finished lots? Are you closing finished lots? What type of margin impact is that?

對——你說的是回報，對吧？就像你們是一家以回報為基礎的公司一樣，儘管華爾街和你們非常關注利潤率。因此，對於首次購買者來說，更多的規格、完成的批次，這樣你就能獲得更好的回報。我相信，你們第一次提到完成了很多。那麼成品批次的影響是什麼呢？您正在關閉已完成的批次嗎？這是什麼類型的利潤影響？

Ken, actually it's Ryan. I'll jump in on that. We haven't sliced the ballooning quite that thin. And I want to attempt to do it on this call. We are a return-focused company. There is no change there. We've -- I think we've been the purveyors of the message. We don't focus on margin. It's a component of the overall operating model. We're focused on return and depending on the number of units that we sell in a particular community and how quickly you turn the asset, if you do that fast enough, then it can offset and you can allow for lower gross margin.

肯，實際上是瑞安。我會立即介入。我們還沒有把氣球切成那麼薄。我想嘗試在這次通話中做到這一點。我們是一家注重回報的公司。那裡沒有任何變化。我認為我們一直是這訊息的傳播者。我們不關注利潤。它是整體營運模式的一個組成部分。我們專注於回報，並取決於我們在特定社區銷售的單位數量以及您週轉資產的速度，如果您做得足夠快，那麼它可以抵消，並且您可以允許較低的毛利率。

So -- if you're getting a lot just in time and somebody else is developing it and carrying it, and we can build in the kind of 100 days that we're talking about. It allows us to run a high returning business to a lower margin. So that's not a new concept. That's exactly what we do. And it is exactly what we'll continue to do.

所以，如果你及時得到了很多東西，而其他人正在開發它並攜帶它，我們就可以在我們所說的 100 天內完成開發。它使我們能夠以較低的利潤經營高回報的業務。所以這不是一個新概念。這正是我們所做的。這正是我們將繼續做的事情。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our next question from John Lovallo with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們將接受 UBS 的 John Lovallo 提出的下一個問題。

The first one is, so your rates at 8% today, you guys are buying down to 5.5%. Can you just remind us last quarter when rates were, I guess, closer to 7%, what level you were buying down to?

第一個是，今天的利率為 8%，你們買進的利率將降至 5.5%。您能否提醒我們，上個季度，當利率接近 7% 時，您的買入水準是多少？

Yes, John, we were -- I think the lowest we were, was 5.25% at a national level. We had some specific markets that may have been sub-5% at 4.99%. But basically, as you've seen the headline rate move from 7.5% to 8%, you've seen our promotional rate move-up by that same 50 basis points.

是的，約翰，我們——我認為我們的最低水平是全國水平的 5.25%。我們有一些特定市場的利率可能低於 5%，為 4.99%。但基本上，正如您所看到的總體利率從 7.5% 上升到 8% 一樣，您也看到我們的促銷利率同樣上升了 50 個基點。

Okay. And you would anticipate probably taking that same strategy as we move forward if rates were to move up?

好的。如果利率上升，您預期我們可能會採取相同的策略？

I think generally, that's a good rule of thumb. I mean there is -- I think, practically speaking, there's a limit to how much money you can throw at the rate relative to what the headline number is.

我認為一般來說，這是一個很好的經驗法則。我的意思是——我認為，實際上，相對於標題數字，你可以按照這個利率投入多少錢是有限的。

Makes sense. And then the second question is just on community count, how you're thinking about that through the remainder of this year and maybe any initial thoughts as we move into next year?

說得通。第二個問題只是關於社區數量，在今年剩下的時間裡你是如何考慮這個問題的，也許在我們進入明年時有什麼初步的想法？

Yes. I think very consistent with what we've said, we think we'll be up 5% to 10% over fourth quarter of last year.

是的。我認為與我們所說的非常一致，我們認為我們將比去年第四季成長 5% 到 10%。

And then we haven't given anything for '24 yet, John, but as we've said in the past, you can see the capital that we've spent or the land that we've spent this year, a pretty good indicator of what community count will be in the future. Or (inaudible) for what community count can turn into in the future.

約翰，我們還沒有為 24 年提供任何資金，但正如我們過去所說，你可以看到我們今年花費的資本或我們花費的土地，這是一個非常好的指標未來的社區數量將會是多少。或（聽不清楚）未來社區數量會變成什麼樣子。

And we will take our next question from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部麥克達爾的下一個問題。

Ryan, just to pick up on one of your last responses. In terms of the practical limit on how much you can throw at the rate buydown, I mean, we've heard different things from different builders depending on whether you're doing pure kind of buy downs versus the forward purchase commitments, which I think you alluded to earlier, and kind of what is and isn't considered seller contributions. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit more on the details of how you're executing -- in the case of going down to 5.75%, how you're executing that? Is it -- like how much is allocated towards the forward purchase commitment versus the pure points? And do you consider the purchase commitments and the cost of that as part of your seller contributions?

瑞安，我只是想了解您最後的回覆之一。就你可以在購買率上投入多少的實際限製而言，我的意思是，我們從不同的建築商那裡聽到了不同的說法，這取決於你是否進行純粹的購買與遠期購買承諾，我認為您之前提到過，什麼是賣家貢獻，什麼不被視為賣家貢獻。您能否詳細說明您的執行方式的細節——在下降到 5.75% 的情況下，您是如何執行的？是不是－例如遠期購買承諾與純積分的分配比例是多少？您是否將購買承諾及其成本視為賣家捐款的一部分？

Yes. So I don't want to give away all of our kind of trade secrets on that. But suffice to say there are different rules based on who is depending on which government agencies rules you're using for that mortgage program. For the upfront fees that we're paying on a forward commitment because those are done prior to having a home under contract, those fees do not count towards seller contribution. But the -- there are additional incentives that have to be applied through the deal once the homes under contract. Those do certainly count towards the seller contribution. So to get to 5.75%, you've got some fees on the front end. You've got some fees on the back end. We do look at them in the aggregate, and those are the numbers that you're hearing, Bob talked about.

是的。所以我不想洩漏我們所有的商業機密。但我只想說，根據誰是誰，有不同的規則，這取決於您用於該抵押貸款計劃的政府機構規則。對於我們在遠期承諾中支付的預付費用，因為這些費用是在合約下的房屋之前完成的，這些費用不計入賣方的貢獻。但是，一旦房屋簽訂合同，就必須透過交易實施額外的激勵措施。這些確實計入賣家的貢獻。因此，要達到 5.75%，您需要在前端支付一些費用。您在後端需要支付一些費用。 「我們確實從總體上看待它們，這些就是你聽到的數字，」鮑勃談到。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, my follow-up is, if we think about the movement in rates, I don't know if you've looked at it this way, and I'll ask it in a historical context year-to-date. If you look at your year-to-date orders or closings, maybe let's focus on closings. Have you run an analysis of how many of those buyers just wouldn't have qualified at today's rates versus the rates that you were able to get them year-to-date?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，我的後續行動是，如果我們考慮利率的變動，我不知道你是否這樣看待它，我會在今年迄今為止的歷史背景下提問。如果您查看今年迄今為止的訂單或成交量，也許讓我們專注於成交量。您是否對這些買家中有多少人按照今天的價格不符合資格以及您今年迄今為止能夠獲得的價格進行了分析？

No. We haven't done that analysis. Now, whatever -- I would highlight that no matter the rate that we're offering we qualified the buyer on the 30-year rate. So a lot of the incentives that we've been doing have been 30-year fixed rate. So that is the rate we're qualifying. But in the case that you do a temporary buy-down, the buyer is qualified at what the permanent 30-year rate will be. So I think everybody knows that but I think it's worth highlighting because we don't -- none of us want to see the industry back in a situation that we were in, in 2008.

不，我們還沒有進行過這樣的分析。現在，無論如何——我要強調的是，無論我們提供的利率如何，我們都按照 30 年期利率對買家進行資格認定。因此，我們一直在實施的許多激勵措施都是 30 年固定利率。這就是我們符合資格的比率。但如果您進行臨時減持，買家就有資格享受 30 年期永久利率。所以我認為每個人都知道這一點，但我認為值得強調，因為我們不知道——我們都不希望看到該行業回到 2008 年的情況。

And we'll take our next question from Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

我們將回答 Zelman & Associates 的艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner) 提出的下一個問題。

Thanks for the info so far. Switching gears a little bit. I guess what I'd like to hear your opinion on is maybe what opportunity you could potentially come about from this recent, I guess, softening or choppiness that you're describing. Your balance sheet is obviously in fantastic shape. So it's pretty much the rest of the public industry. But, we are hearing anecdotes of ABMC Capital tightening up for private operators and land developers, and we hearing build for rent deals kind of potentially falling out of favor here.

感謝您到目前為止提供的資訊。稍微切換一下齒輪。我想我想聽聽你的意見，也許你可能會從你所描述的最近的軟化或波動中獲得什麼機會。您的資產負債表顯然狀況良好。所以這幾乎是公共產業的其他部分。但是，我們聽到 ABMC Capital 收緊對私人營運商和土地開發商的收購的傳聞，而且我們也聽到建築租賃交易可能會在這裡失寵。

So have you started to see any increase in either distress or opportunities that you feel like you might be able to take advantage of if these current conditions persist for a handful of quarters?

那麼，您是否開始看到困境或機會增加，您認為如果目前的情況持續幾個季度，您可能能夠利用這些機會？

Alan, I think we're hearing the same things that you are, particularly on maybe availability of capital or the cost of capital on the land development side. There's definitely, I think, some strain or tightness in that arena. I think that certainly might continue to create an opportunity. The longer that we stay in a high-rate environment. I think it's also a great opportunity for us to take market share with our mortgage company, the size of our balance sheet, the ability to be active in the capital markets, I think it gives us an opportunity to do things that smaller local builders and maybe private builders can't.

艾倫，我認為我們聽到的事情與您相同，特別是在土地開發方面的資金可用性或資金成本方面。我認為，這個領域肯定存在一些壓力或緊張。我認為這肯定會繼續創造機會。我們在高利率環境中停留的時間越長。我認為這對我們來說也是一個很好的機會，可以讓我們的抵押貸款公司佔據市場份額，我們的資產負債表規模，以及活躍於資本市場的能力，我認為這給了我們一個機會，可以做一些當地小型建築商和建築商無法做到的事情。也許私人建築商不能。

So I think there's certainly a market share opportunity there as well. We've made a build to rent a small piece of our business. We've got good relationships with national partners that we're building some percentage of our annual deliveries for those operators. And I think we've talked extensively about that. That will continue to be an arrow in our operational quiver.

所以我認為那裡肯定也有市場佔有率的機會。我們建造了一座建築來租用我們的一小部分業務。我們與國家合作夥伴建立了良好的關係，我們正在為這些運營商提供一定比例的年度交付量。我認為我們已經廣泛討論過這一點。這將繼續成為我們行動箭袋中的一支箭。

So I -- look, I'm really, really confident and pleased with the way we're operating, the health of the business, the volume that we're selling and kind of the core operations. And then when you go to the balance sheet, I think we're set up to do a lot of great things that will continue to set us up for success down the road.

所以我——看，我對我們的運作方式、業務的健康狀況、我們的銷售量以及核心業務非常非常有信心和滿意。然後，當你查看資產負債表時，我認為我們已經準備好做很多偉大的事情，這些事情將繼續為我們在未來的成功奠定基礎。

That's helpful, Ryan. And then I guess just other builders have kind of put out an absorption target that they manage their business to, that tends to maybe more of the spec [guide] at country level where volume is certainly more of a consideration. But I'm curious when you think about your price outlook and your margin profile and where your incentives are currently running at? Right now, your absorption pace this year is probably going to be in the mid-2s somewhere. Is there a level where if that pace dipped below that you would get much more aggressive on incentives and discounts and even adjust base prices again? What would that level look like?

這很有幫助，瑞安。然後我想其他建築商也提出了他們管理業務的吸收目標，這可能更多是國家層面的規範[指南]，其中數量肯定是更多考慮因素。但我很好奇，您會考慮一下您的價格前景、利潤狀況以及目前的激勵措施嗎？現在，你今年的吸收速度可能會在 2 秒左右。如果這一速度低於這個水平，您是否會在激勵和折扣方面更加積極，甚至再次調整基本價格？這個水平會是什麼樣子？

Yes, Alan, it's a good question. We're -- the thing that I talk about with our operators, and I spent a lot of time in the field in our communities and our division offices talking about exactly this. The mantra that we have inside the company is a minimum of 2 sales in every community. Now certainly, we have certain price points and communities that sell way more than 2 per community but as a production homebuilder, it's hard to have an active store that does less than 2.

是的，艾倫，這是個好問題。我們是——我與我們的運營商談論的事情，我花了很多時間在我們的社區和部門辦公室的現場談論這一點。我們公司內部的口號是每個社群至少實現 2 次銷售。當然，現在我們有一定的價格點和社區，每個社區的銷量超過 2 套，但作為生產型住宅建築商，很難有一家活躍的商店銷量少於 2 套。

You just -- you can't make the returns work to the level of our expectations. So below 2 per active community, that's where we start looking at [pay] reposition, right? Do we have the right incentives? Do we have the right pricing? Do we have the right product? Are we going after the right consumer? There's a number of those levers that we pull. But it nets out for this quarter, we were 2.5, but that 2 per community is kind of the level that we look at.

你只是 - 你無法使回報達到我們的預期水平。因此，每個活躍社區低於 2 個，這就是我們開始考慮[付費]重新定位的地方，對吧？我們有正確的激勵措施嗎？我們有合適的定價嗎？我們有合適的產品嗎？我們是否在尋找合適的消費者？我們可以拉動很多這樣的槓桿。但本季的淨值是 2.5，但每個社區 2 是我們所關注的水平。

And we will take our final question from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

我們將接受沃爾夫研究公司的杜魯門·帕特森提出的最後一個問題。

Ryan, the screaming baby sale got me. I think that kids probably in high school or college by now. But...

瑞安，尖叫嬰兒促銷吸引了我。我認為孩子們現在可能已經上高中或大學了。但...

We're going to the way back machine, Truman.

我們要去回程機器了，杜魯門。

Exactly, exactly. You all -- I'm trying to understand your orders for entry-level. We're performing well in the third quarter. I think you said up like 53% year-over-year. But then, you mentioned some more cautious commentary about that buyer. I'm just hoping maybe big picture if you could help us think through the monthly incentives needed for that buyer cohort versus you mentioned active-adult maybe move-up more affluent, not needing quite as much. I'm just hoping you can help us just kind of understand these kind of bigger trends that you're seeing near term.

完全正確。你們所有人——我正在努力了解你們對入門級的訂單。我們第三季的表現很好。我想你說的是年增 53%。但隨後，您提到了對該買家的一些更謹慎的評論。我只是希望您能幫助我們考慮一下購買者群體所需的每月激勵措施，而不是您提到的活躍成年人可能會變得更加富裕，而不需要那麼多。我只是希望您能幫助我們了解您近期看到的這些更大的趨勢。

Yes, Truman. Look, I think we're really pleased with what our first-time business is doing. We've invested in it. It's -- we've said our target was to get it to kind of 40% of our business, and we've done that. And I think you've seen not only growth in absorptions but growth in communities and the business is about where we'd like it to be. On one hand, that buyer doesn't have a home to sell, they're not locked into a low interest rate that are reluctant to get rid of. So I think that's the positive with that first-time buyer.

是的，杜魯門。看，我認為我們對我們的首次業務所做的事情非常滿意。我們已經投資了。我們說過我們的目標是讓它占到我們業務的 40%，我們已經做到了。我認為您不僅看到了吸納量的成長，還看到了社區和業務的成長，這就是我們希望達到的目標。一方面，買家沒有房子可賣，他們沒有被鎖定在低利率而不願擺脫。所以我認為這對首次購房者來說是積極的。

In terms of the headwinds, I think it's obvious, it's 8% interest rate. And that's a buyer that's got a down payment, hopefully, either they've saved it or that's been gifted to them by parents, and then they're going to get in a 30-year mortgage and they're working on what they can afford based on their wages. Good news is wages are going up, which is helping affordability. But beyond kind of rate, rate, rate, there's probably not a bunch more that I could add in terms of kind of the first-time buyer.

就不利因素而言，我認為這是顯而易見的，那就是8%的利率。這是一個有首付的買家，希望他們要么把這筆錢存起來，要么是父母送給他們的禮物，然後他們將獲得 30 年期抵押貸款，他們正在盡其所能根據他們的工資負擔。好消息是薪資正在上漲，這有助於提高負擔能力。但除了利率、利率、利率之外，關於首次購屋者的情況，我可能沒有什麼可以補充的了。

And maybe just last thing on the overall rate environment. Look, high rates aren't good for the consumer. They're not good for housing. They're not good for the broader economy. But we're all kind of playing in the same environment. And with the quality of the management team that we have and the way that we're operating this company, I think we've proven that we've got the tools and the operational flexibility to be successful in any environment in this most recent quarter is a great example of that.

也許這只是整體利率環境的最後一件事。看，高利率對消費者來說並不好。它們不適合住房。它們不利於更廣泛的經濟。但我們都在同一個環境中玩耍。憑藉我們管理團隊的素質以及我們經營公司的方式，我認為我們已經證明我們擁有在最近一個季度的任何環境中取得成功的工具和營運靈活性就是一個很好的例子。

Okay. Perfect. And then Ryan, you mentioned adjusting product, given the higher rates. I'm hoping you could elaborate on what all that entails for Pulte specifically. And then if I'm kind of reading between the lines, spec sales were about 49% of your overall bucket this quarter. That's a pretty good run rate that you will expect going forward?

好的。完美的。然後瑞安（Ryan），您提到考慮到更高的利率來調整產品。我希望你能詳細說明這對普爾特來說具體意味著什麼。如果我從字裡行間看出，規格銷售額約佔本季整體銷售額的 49%。您預計未來會有一個相當不錯的運行率嗎？

Yes. So in terms of product, Truman, the one great thing about our product portfolio is that we offer a lot of flexibility to scale up, scale down. We offer structural options that allow a smaller floor plan with added square footage in the form of loft or additional flex space. So we've got the ability to take a base floor plan, scale it up or scale it down, and we're seeing buyers use that flexibility to help address some of the affordability challenges that are out there. In our -- the way that we sell options, we see buyers pick the things that they see value in. And we're also seeing buyers make trade-offs in terms of how they spend those dollars in terms of cabinets, countertops, upgrades, et cetera.

是的。因此，就產品而言，Truman，我們產品組合的一大優點是我們提供了極大的靈活性來擴大和縮小規模。我們提供的結構選項允許較小的平面圖，並以閣樓或額外的彈性空間的形式增加平方英尺。因此，我們有能力製定基本平面圖、擴大或縮小規模，而且我們看到買家利用這種靈活性來幫助解決一些負擔能力的挑戰。在我們出​​售選擇權的方式中，我們看到買家挑選他們認為有價值的東西。我們還看到買家在如何花費這些錢在櫥櫃、檯面、升級方面做出權衡。等等。

And then the last piece of your question, Truman. Remind me again.

然後是你的最後一個問題，杜魯門。再次提醒我。

Your spec strategy, should we kind of assume that it's pretty much stable from here that you're targeting about half the business perhaps as...

您的規格策略，我們是否應該假設您的目標是大約一半的業務，從這裡開始它非常穩定...

Yes, roughly. I think that's a good go-forward run rate. It's higher than what we experienced pre-COVID. That's mostly reflective of the size of our first-time business and entirely moving that spec. We did highlight this quarter 49%, that's down from about 60% earlier in the year. So we feel pretty good about the performance of the spec business.

是的，大約。我認為這是一個很好的前進速度。這比我們在新冠疫情之前所經歷的還要高。這主要反映了我們首次業務的規模，並完全改變了該規範。我們確實強調了本季的 49%，低於今年稍早的 60% 左右。所以我們對規格業務的表現感覺非常好。

And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. James Zeumer for closing remarks.

女士們先生們，這就是我們提問的時間。現在，我將把電話轉回給 James Zeumer 先生，讓其致閉幕詞。

I appreciate everybody's time today. Sorry, we couldn't get through to all the questions but certainly available over the remainder of the day to follow-up. And we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

我很感謝大家今天抽出時間。抱歉，我們無法回答所有問題，但肯定可以在當天剩餘的時間內進行跟進。我們期待下個季度與您交談。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。