普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

女士們、先生們，早安。

And thank you for standing by.

感謝您的支持。

My name is Kelvin and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫凱爾文，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Bob O'Shaughnessy, my apologies.

現在我想將電話轉給鮑勃·奧肖納西 (Bob O'Shaughnessy)，我很抱歉。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Kelvin.

謝謝，凱爾文。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's call.

大家早安，歡迎參加今天的電話會議。

We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year financial results.

我們期待討論第四季度和全年的財務表現。

With me today are Ryan Marshall, our President and CEO; and Jim Ossowski, our Incoming Executive Vice President and CFO.

今天與我一起的還有我們的總裁兼執行長瑞安馬歇爾 (Ryan Marshall)；以及我們即將上任的執行副總裁兼財務長 Jim Ossowski。

As always, a copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call later today.

像往常一樣，我們的收益報告和今天早上的簡報幻燈片的副本已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們也將於今天稍晚發布此次通話的音訊重播。

I want to highlight that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance.

我想強調的是，今天的演示中包含了關於公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today.

實際結果可能與我們今天的評論所暗示的結果有重大差異。

Most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release, and within the accompanying presentation slides.

今天的收益報告和隨附的簡報幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來結果的大多數重要風險因素。

These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings including our annual and quarterly reports.

這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們的美國證券交易委員會文件（包括年度和季度報告）中有詳細說明。

With that said, let me turn the call over to Ryan.

說了這麼多，讓我把電話轉給瑞安 (Ryan)。

Thanks, Bob, and good morning.

謝謝，鮑勃，早安。

We are pleased to speak with you today about how we are running the business and our outstanding fourth quarter and full year financial results.

今天我們很高興與您談論我們的業務經營情況以及我們出色的第四季度和全年財務業績。

Before Bob gives you the detailed data relating to the fourth quarter, I thought it would be appropriate to summarize some of the company's many achievements in 2024.

在鮑伯向您提供與第四季度相關的詳細數據之前，我認為有必要總結公司在 2024 年取得的一些成就。

PulteGroup delivered 31,219 homes in 2024, which represents an increase of 9% over last year.

PulteGroup 在 2024 年交付了 31,219 套房屋，比去年增加了 9%。

We generated record home sale revenues of $17.3 billion.

我們創造了173億美元的房屋銷售收入，創下歷史新高。

We once again reported industry leading full year gross margins of 28.9%, and we were able to do this in the face of increasing affordability challenges through the careful management of product offerings, pricing, incentives, and absorption paces as we sought to maintain high profitability while ensuring we continue to turn our assets.

我們再次報告稱，全年毛利率達到行業領先水平，達到28.9%，儘管面臨日益嚴峻的購買力挑戰，我們仍透過精心管理產品供應、定價、激勵措施和吸收速度，努力保持高盈利能力，實現了這一目標同時確保我們繼續轉化我們的資產。

We continue to manage our overheads efficiently as our reported SG&A amounted to 7.6% of our home sale revenues, including the insurance benefits we recorded in 2024.

我們繼續有效管理我們的管理費用，因為我們報告的銷售、一般和行政費用占我們房屋銷售收入的 7.6%，其中包括我們在 2024 年記錄的保險福利。

And we reported strong operating results from our financial services operations, which generated $210 million of pre-tax income compared to $133 million last year.

我們報告了金融服務業務的強勁經營業績，實現稅前收入 2.1 億美元，而去年同期為 1.33 億美元。

As a result, our reported net operating margin was 21.3% for the year.

因此，我們報告的全年淨營業利潤率為21.3%。

No matter how you look at it, our performance this year was outstanding, as we have continued to navigate the turbulence in the markets over the last few years.

無論從哪個角度來看，我們今年的表現都是非常出色的，因為我們在過去幾年中一直順利應對市場的動盪。

Our performance is a product of the disciplined and consistent manner in which we are running the business, which has allowed us to quickly adjust key business practices to position PulteGroup for ongoing success.

我們的業績源自於我們嚴謹且一致的業務運作方式，這使我們能夠快速調整關鍵業務實踐，從而使 PulteGroup 獲得持續的成功。

Our strong operating performance also allowed us to continue to manage our capital in a manner which leaves us with considerable financial strength.

強勁的營運業績也使我們能夠繼續以擁有強大財務實力的方式管理我們的資本。

In the year, we generated $1.7 billion of cash flow from operations after investing $5.3 billion in new land.

本年度，我們在投資 53 億美元購買新土地後，產生了 17 億美元的營運現金流。

We continue to efficiently increase our land pipeline, putting approximately 43,000 new lots under control.

我們繼續有效率地增加土地儲備，已掌控約 43,000 塊新地塊。

Inclusive of these lots, we now control 235,000 lots, of which 56% are under option.

包括這些地塊在內，我們目前控制著 235,000 個地塊，其中 56％為期權。

In addition, we returned $1.7 billion to investors, including $1.2 billion through share repurchases, the payment of $168 million in dividends, and $310 million through the early retirement of senior notes.

此外，我們還向投資者返還了 17 億美元，包括透過股票回購返還的 12 億美元、支付的 1.68 億美元股息以及透過提前贖回優先票據返還的 3.1 億美元。

After all of that, we ended the year with $1.7 billion of cash, and our gross debt-to-capital ratio was 11.8%.

經過所有這些，我們在年底時擁有 17 億美元現金，總債務資本比率為 11.8%。

We are also very proud of the numerous awards recognizing our company's culture, including being named to Fortune's Top 100 Best Companies to Work For in 2024 for the fourth consecutive year.

我們也為表彰我們公司文化而獲得的眾多獎項感到非常自豪，包括連續第四年被《財富》雜誌評為 2024 年最適合工作的 100 家公司。

Looking to the future, it remains our view that the long term outlook for new home construction is positive.

展望未來，我們仍然認為新房屋建設的長期前景是樂觀的。

The US economy has navigated recessionary concerns well.

美國經濟已經很好地應對了衰退擔憂。

Employment remains strong, and the interest in new homes remains at high levels.

就業依然強勁，對新房的興趣仍然很高。

In addition, the structural shortage of housing due to underbuilding, ever increasing land entitlement challenges and ongoing labor availability challenges, together with our expectation for continuing lower resale transactions due to a higher for longer rate environment leads us to believe that new home supply will continue to be absorbed without a significant increase in standing inventory.

此外，由於建設不足而導致的住房結構性短缺、土地使用權挑戰不斷增加以及勞動力供應持續面臨挑戰，再加上我們預計由於長期利率較高導致轉售交易量持續下降，我們相信新房屋供應將繼續無需大幅增加庫存即可吸收。

Given our constructive views on the outlook for long term housing demand, we are planning to continue to invest in our operations to support growing our business over time.

鑑於我們對長期住房需求前景的建設性看法，我們計劃繼續投資於我們的運營，以支持我們的業務隨著時間的推移而成長。

Within our operating model, we set our starts pace to align with the sales environment rather than being based on a predetermined annual production volume.

在我們的營運模式中，我們設定的開工速度與銷售環境一致，而不是基於預先確定的年生產量。

As a result, home buying demand will impact our closing volumes and resulting growth from year-to-year.

因此，購屋需求將影響我們的成交量以及逐年的成長。

While there can be resulting peaks and valleys in our deliveries, our focus remains on investing in our business to grow volume while maintaining high returns.

儘管我們的交付量可能會出現高峰和低谷，但我們的重點仍然是投資我們的業務以增加產量並保持高回報。

As we've demonstrated for much of the past decade, we expect to continue to generate strong cash flows that will allow us to fund our business investment, pay our dividend, and return excess capital to investors, all while maintaining our balance sheet strength and flexibility.

正如我們在過去十年的大部分時間所展示的那樣，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的現金流，這將使我們能夠為我們的業務投資提供資金，支付股息，並向投資者返還多餘的資本，同時保持我們的資產負債表實力和靈活性。

Our expectation of continued financial success is reflected in this morning's announcement that our Board approved a $1.5 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization.

我們對持續財務成功的期望反映在今天上午的公告中，董事會批准將我們的股票回購授權增加 15 億美元。

With many forecasting interest rates to fall, the economy to stay relatively healthy, and conditions in the job market to remain favorable, there are certainly reasons to be optimistic about housing demand in the coming years.

許多人預測利率將下降、經濟將保持相對健康、就業市場狀況將保持有利，因此我們當然有理由對未來幾年的住房需求感到樂觀。

Having said that, affordability challenges and generally high cost of living are certainly impacting the American consumer.

話雖如此，負擔能力挑戰和普遍較高的生活成本肯定會對美國消費者產生影響。

Specific to homebuyers, we believe the recent volatility in mortgage rates, including the current increase back above 7% has contributed to the recent lower activity levels.

具體到購屋者，我們認為近期抵押貸款利率的波動，包括目前回升至 7% 以上，導致了近期活動水準的下降。

Against this backdrop, we continue to carefully monitor our investment in production levels, with a view towards generating high returns in our business.

在此背景下，我們繼續密切監控對生產水準的投資，以期為我們的業務帶來高回報。

Consistent with how we have been managing our business in recent years, we are managing our starts activity with a view towards driving our spec inventory to be more in line with our desired levels, including targeting our total spec inventory to be between 40% and 45% of our total units under production.

與近年來我們管理業務的方式一致，我們正在管理我們的開工活動，以期推動我們的規格庫存更符合我們的預期水平，包括將我們的總規格庫存目標定在 40% 至 45% 之間占我們生產總單位數的百分比。

Let me now turn the call over to Bob for a review of our fourth quarter results.

現在，讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，讓他回顧我們的第四季業績。

Bob?

鮑伯？

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

Starting with our income statement, home sale revenues in the fourth quarter were $4.7 billion compared with $4.2 billion in the prior year.

從我們的損益表開始，第四季的房屋銷售收入為 47 億美元，而去年同期為 42 億美元。

The increase in home sale revenues for the period reflects a 6% increase in closings, 8,103 homes, along with a 6% increase in our average sales price to $581,000.

本期間房屋銷售收入的成長反映了成交量增加 6% 至 8,103 套，同時平均銷售價格增加 6% 至 581,000 美元。

Our mix of closings in the quarter were comprised of 40% first time, 40% move-up, and 20% active adult.

本季度，我們的成交結構包括 40% 的首次交易、40% 的升級交易和 20% 的活躍成年人交易。

Consistent with our commentary over the last two quarters, the slight decline in the percentage of closings from active adult buyers reflects the timing of recent active adult community closeouts.

與我們過去兩季的評論一致，活躍成年買家成交比例略有下降，反映了近期活躍成年社區成交的時間安排。

And we continue to expect a normalization of contribution from these consumers when replacement active adult communities begin opening for sales in the back half of 2025.

當替代活躍成人社群在 2025 年下半年開始開放銷售時，我們將繼續期待這些消費者的貢獻正常化。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, closings were 40% first time, 36% move-up, 24% active adult.

2023 年第四季，首次成交佔比 40%，升級成交佔比 36%，活躍成年人成交佔比 24%。

I would note that the increase in our average selling price in the quarter relative to our guide is due primarily to the increase in the relative proportion of our closings from move-up customers.

我要指出的是，本季我們的平均售價相對於我們的指導價有所增加，主要是由於升級客戶成交量的相對比例增加。

Our average community count for the fourth quarter was 960, which represents a 4% increase over last year's fourth quarter average of 919 communities and was in line with our prior guidance.

我們第四季的平均社群數量為 960 個，比去年第四季的平均社群數量 919 個增加了 4%，符合我們先前的預期。

Looking at order activity in the quarter, our net new orders decreased 1% to 6,167 homes.

從本季的訂單活動來看，我們的淨新訂單下降 1% 至 6,167 套。

This decrease was primarily attributable to a 5% decrease in sales per store, and a slight increase in our cancellation rate as a percentage of beginning backlog, partially offset by the 4% increase in our community count.

這一下降主要歸因於每家店的銷售額下降了 5%，以及我們的取消率佔期初積壓訂單的百分比略有上升，但社區數量增加了 4% ，部分抵消了這一影響。

Looking at demand conditions in the quarter, as we noted during our third quarter call, the market in October demonstrated a more typical seasonal demand pattern coming out of the third quarter.

縱觀本季的需求狀況，正如我們在第三季電話會議上指出的那樣，十月份的市場表現出了第三季度更典型的季節性需求模式。

This continued through the quarter as consumers faced economic uncertainty related to potential economic changes being considered by the incoming administration and the recent increase in mortgage rates.

由於新政府正在考慮的潛在經濟變化和近期抵押貸款利率上調導致消費者面臨經濟不確定性，這種情況持續整個季度。

We also noted that given the macro issues consumers face that the spring selling season would offer the best assessment of fundamental housing demand.

我們也注意到，考慮到消費者面臨的宏觀問題，春季銷售季節將對基本住房需求提供最佳評估。

Fast forward to today, and we continue to believe that market fundamentals while still presenting affordability challenges to consumers are supportive of housing and the spring selling season will be the best barometer for how the consumer will behave in today's economic environment.

快進到今天，我們仍然相信，市場基本面雖然仍然給消費者帶來負擔能力挑戰，但對住房有利，而春季銷售季節將成為衡量消費者在當今經濟環境下行為的最佳晴雨表。

Looking at our quarter activity by buyer group, fourth quarter net new orders decreased 14% for first-time buyers, increased 15% for move-up buyers, and decreased 1% for active adult buyers.

從各買家群體的季度活動來看，第四季首次購屋者的淨新訂單下降了14%，升級購屋者的淨新訂單成長了15%，活躍成年購屋者的淨新訂單下降了1% 。

We believe these activity levels reflect the continued interest of consumers for new homes, but also show the impact of the affordability challenges consumers face particularly for first-time buyers.

我們認為這些活動水準反映了消費者對新房屋的持續興趣，也顯示了消費者特別是首次購屋者面臨的負擔能力挑戰的影響。

As a result of our sales and closings activity, our quarter end backlog was 10,153 homes, which is down 16% from last year.

由於我們的銷售和成交活動，我們本季末的積壓房屋數量為 10,153 套，比去年下降了 16%。

On a dollar basis, our backlog of $6.5 billion, is down 11%.

以美元計算，我們的積壓訂單為 65 億美元，下降了 11%。

Inclusive of the 7,502 homes we started in the fourth quarter, we ended the year with 16,439 homes in production.

算上第四季開工的 7,502 套住宅，年底時我們的竣工住宅總數為 16,439 套。

53% of our production is spec, including 1,862 finished specs, which when combined with cycle times that are now largely in line with our historical norm, put us in a position to meet buyer demand through the year.

我們的生產中有 53% 是規格產品，包括 1,862 個成品規格產品，再加上現在與我們的歷史標準基本一致的周期時間，使我們能夠全年滿足買家的需求。

With that said, in the event that the spring selling season trends towards lower absorption rates, we will reduce our pace of spec starts and communities with higher spec inventory levels so as to better match local selling conditions and help produce standing inventory.

話雖如此，如果春季銷售季節的吸收率趨勢較低，我們將降低規格開工速度和規格庫存水平較高的社區，以便更好地匹配當地的銷售條件並幫助產生常備庫存。

As Ryan noted, our goal is to reduce our spec inventory back down to 40% to 45% of our total production by the end of the year.

正如 Ryan 所說，我們的目標是到今年年底將規格庫存減少到總產量的 40% 到 45%。

Based on our current production pipeline, we expect to deliver 31,000 closings in 2025, including between 6,400 and 6,800 closings in the first quarter.

根據我們目前的生產管道，我們預計 2025 年將實現 31,000 筆成交，其中包括第一季的 6,400 至 6,800 筆成交。

Looking at pricing, we currently expect the average sales price of closings to be in the range of $560,000 to $570,000 in each of the fourth quarters of the year.

從定價來看，我們目前預計每年第四季的平均成交價格將在 56 萬美元至 57 萬美元之間。

Our fourth quarter gross margin was 27.5%, which is down 130 basis points sequentially, but within the guide we gave at the end of the third quarter.

我們第四季的毛利率為 27.5%，比上一季下降 130 個基點，但在我們第三季末給出的預期範圍內。

Consistent with recent quarters, our fourth quarter margins reflect buyer incentives, which increased 20 basis points sequentially from the third quarter to 7.2%.

與最近幾季的情況一致，我們第四季的利潤率反映了買方激勵，環比第三季增加了 20 個基點，達到 7.2%。

Based on our backlog and current sales conditions, we anticipate that gross margins in the first quarter will be approximately 27%.

根據我們的積壓訂單和目前的銷售情況，我們預計第一季的毛利率將約為27％。

For the balance of the year, we currently expect gross margin to be in the range of 25% to 27% in each of the second, third, and fourth quarters.

就今年剩餘時間而言，我們目前預計第二、第三和第四季的毛利率將在 25% 至 27% 之間。

These estimates assume that incentives throughout 2025 will remain consistent with the incentives recognized in the fourth quarter.

這些估計假設 2025 年全年的激勵措施將與第四季度確認的激勵措施保持一致。

I would also point out that our margins beyond the first quarter will ultimately be influenced by the demand conditions during the year, as we have a significant number of homes to sell and close over the balance of the year.

我還要指出的是，第一季以後的利潤率最終將受到全年需求狀況的影響，因為我們在今年剩餘時間內有大量房屋需要出售和成交。

Moving on to expenses, our reported fourth quarter SG&A expense was $196 million or 4.2% of home sale revenues, which compares with prior year reported SG&A expense of $308 million or 7.4% of home sale revenues.

說到費用，我們報告的第四季度銷售、一般及行政費用為1.96 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的4.2%，而去年同期報告的銷售、一般及行政費用為3.08 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的7.4%。

It should be noted that our reported results for the fourth quarters of '24 and '23 included $250 million and $65 million respectively of pre-tax insurance benefits.

值得注意的是，我們報告的 24 年和 23 年第四季業績分別包含 2.5 億美元和 6,500 萬美元的稅前保險福利。

Based on anticipated closing volumes, we currently expect SG&A expense in 2025 to be approximately 9.5% of home sale revenues, including SG&A expense of approximately 10.5% of wholesale revenues in the first quarter.

根據預期的成交量，我們目前預計 2025 年的銷售、一般及行政費用約佔房屋銷售收入的 9.5%，其中第一季的銷售、一般及行政費用約佔批發收入的 10.5%。

In the fourth quarter, our financial services has reported pre-tax income of $51 million increase from $44 million last year.

第四季度，我們的金融服務稅前收入從去年的 4,400 萬美元增加到 5,100 萬美元。

The improvement in pre-tax income reflects the increase in our homebuilding closings as well as the continuation of our financial services platform.

稅前收入的提高反映了我們房屋建築成交量的增加以及我們金融服務平台的延續。

Our reported pre-tax income for the fourth quarter was $1.2 billion compared with prior year pre-tax income of $947 million.

我們報告的第四季稅前收入為 12 億美元，而去年同期的稅前收入為 9.47 億美元。

In the period, we recorded tax expense of $269 million or an effective tax rate of 22.8%.

在此期間，我們記錄的稅費為 2.69 億美元，有效稅率為 22.8%。

Our fourth quarter effective tax rate includes benefits relating to energy efficiency credit and our purchase of renewable energy tax credits.

我們第四季的有效稅率包括與能源效率信貸和購買再生能源稅收抵免相關的福利。

Projecting ahead, we expect our tax rate in 2025 to be approximately 24.5%, excluding the impact of any discrete tax events, including energy efficiency credits or the purchase of incremental renewable energy tax credits.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年的稅率約為 24.5%，不包括任何單獨稅收事件的影響，包括能源效率抵免或購買增量再生能源稅收抵免。

Looking at the bottom line, our reported fourth quarter results showed an income of $913 million or $4.43 per share.

從底線來看，我們報告的第四季度業績顯示收入為 9.13 億美元，即每股 4.43 美元。

In the comparable prior year period, we reported net income of $711 million or $3.28 per share.

去年同期，我們報告的淨收入為 7.11 億美元，即每股 3.28 美元。

Reflective of our strong operating results, we generated cash flows from operations of $1.7 billion in '24.

由於我們強勁的經營業績，我們在 24 年產生了 17 億美元的營運現金流。

Given our current expectations for operating and financial results in 2025, we expect to generate cash flows from operations of approximately $1.4 million.

鑑於我們目前對 2025 年經營和財務業績的預期，我們預計經營活動產生的現金流量約為 140 萬美元。

Turning to our investment and capital allocation activities.

談到我們的投資和資本配置活動。

We invested $1.5 billion in land acquisition and development in fourth quarter, of which 53% was for development of our existing land assets.

我們在第四季度投資了 15 億美元用於土地收購和開發，其中 53% 用於開發我們現有的土地資產。

For the year, our land investment totaled $5.3 billion, of which 57% was for development.

全年我們的土地投資總額為 53 億美元，其中 57% 用於開發。

Given our constructive views on near and longer term housing dynamics, we currently plan to continue investing in land at a rate design to allow us to grow over time.

鑑於我們對近期和長期住房動態的建設性看法，我們目前計劃繼續以允許我們隨著時間的推移而增長的利率設計投資土地。

As a result, we expect to invest approximately $5.5 billion in 2025.

因此，我們預計 2025 年將投資約 55 億美元。

I would expect that approximately 55% of that spend will be for development.

我預計其中約 55% 的支出將用於開發。

Consistent with my comments about our willingness to slow starts, we would also evaluate our spend on new land assets if absorptions slow as we seek to maintain a high level of return.

與我關於我們願意緩慢起步的評論一致，如果吸收速度變慢，我們也將評估我們在新土地資產上的支出，因為我們尋求維持高水準的回報。

Inclusive of our fourth quarter investments, we ended the year with 235,000 lots under control, which is an increase of 5% over the prior year.

如果算上第四季的投資，截至今年底，我們控制著 235,000 個地塊，比前一年增加了 5%。

I would highlight that on a year-over-year basis, we lowered our own block count by 2,000 lots, while increasing our lots under option by 14,000 lots.

我想強調的是，與去年同期相比，我們自己的地塊數量減少了 2,000 塊，同時期權地塊數量增加了 14,000 塊。

As a result, our percentage of lots under option increased to 56%, up from 53% last year.

因此，我們的選擇權地塊比例從去年的 53% 增加到 56%。

I'm pleased to note that 69% of our new land approvals in the fourth quarter were under some form of option, as we work towards a 70% option mix in our portfolio.

我很高興地註意到，第四季度我們 69% 的新土地審批都是以某種形式的期權方式進行的，我們致力於將投資組合中的期權比例提高到 70%。

Based on the investments we made and our anticipated community openings and closings in 2025, we expect our average community count in 2025 to be up 3% to 5% in each quarter as compared to the comparable prior year period.

根據我們所做的投資以及預計 2025 年社區的開業和關閉數量，我們預計 2025 年每個季度的平均社區數量將比去年同期增長 3% 至 5%。

Looking at our capital allocation priorities, we continued returning capital to investors in the fourth quarter, which included the repurchase of 2.5 million common shares at a cost of $320 million or $129.90 per share.

從資本配置重點來看，我們在第四季繼續向投資者返還資本，其中包括以 3.2 億美元或每股 129.90 美元的成本回購 250 萬股普通股。

As Ryan noted, our total return to investors in '24 amounted to $1.7 billion, including the $1.2 billion of share repurchases, and $168 million of dividends, and $310 million through the early retirement of senior notes.

正如瑞安所指出的，2024年我們給投資者的總回報為17億美元，其中包括12億美元的股票回購，1.68億美元的股息，以及透過提前贖回優先票據獲得的3.1億美元。

Based on the actions taken, our debt to capital ratio at the end of the year was 11.8%, down 410 points from last year.

採取這些措施，我行年末資本負債比率為11.8%，比去年同期下降了410個百分點。

Adjusting for the $1.7 billion of cash on our balance sheet, our net debt to capital ratio is now below zero.

在調整我們資產負債表上的 17 億美元現金後，我們的淨債務資本比率現在低於零。

I'd like to take a moment to provide an update on our expectations for leverage in the future.

我想花點時間來更新我們對未來槓桿的預期。

As you know, we have historically expressed that our target leverage level has been between 20% and 30% of capital on a gross basis.

如你所知，我們過去曾表示，我們的目標槓桿率在總資本的 20％ 到 30％ 之間。

Due to the strength of our operations and the resulting utilization of our cash flows over the last decade or so, we are well below that target range on a gross basis.

由於我們過去十年左右的營運實力和由此產生的現金流利用率，我們在總量上遠低於該目標範圍。

And as I noted, we are actually now net debt free.

正如我所說，我們實際上現在已經沒有淨債務了。

Looking forward, we expect to continue to generate sufficient cash flows to support our capital needs.

展望未來，我們預計將繼續產生足夠的現金流來支持我們的資本需求。

As a result, we are no longer targeting a specific leverage level.

因此，我們不再以特定的槓桿水平為目標。

Instead, we will allocate our capital in line with our historical practice, continue to prioritize investment in the business, and the payment of our dividend, with excess capital being used to repurchase our stock and or retire our debt.

相反，我們將按照歷史慣例分配資本，繼續優先投資業務和支付股息，多餘的資本將用於回購股票和/或償還債務。

Our resulting leverage position will, therefore, be an outcome that is dependent on the decision to make rather than targeted to a predetermined level.

因此，我們最終的槓桿頭寸將取決於所做的決定，而不是針對預定的水平。

With that said, we would expect to see our leverage remain flat or decline in the future, unless there is a transaction where leverage augments our opportunity.

話雖如此，我們預計未來我們的槓桿率將保持平穩或下降，除非有交易可以透過槓桿來增加我們的機會。

Specific to 2025, I would also highlight that our Board recently approved a 10% increase in our dividend per share starting in the first quarter of 2025.

具體到 2025 年，我還要強調的是，我們的董事會最近批准從 2025 年第一季開始將每股股息提高 10%。

As Ryan noted, we also announced a $1.5 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization this morning.

正如瑞安所說，我們今天早上也宣布將股票回購授權金額增加 15 億美元。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

現在，讓我將電話轉回給 Ryan，請他發表一些最後的評論。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

At the end of last year, I spoke about our successful navigation of the many challenges we faced in recent years. 2024 was no different, as we have dealt with continuing interest rate variability and affordability challenges, significant weather events, and ongoing geopolitical issues.

去年年底，我談到了我們成功應對近年來面臨的許多挑戰。 2024 年也不例外，因為我們面臨著持續的利率波動和負擔能力挑戰、重大天氣事件以及持續的地緣政治問題。

I remain extremely proud of how our entire team has responded to these events the exceptional operating and financial results PulteGroup has delivered over time.

我對我們的整個團隊對這些事件的反應以及 PulteGroup 長期以來的卓越營運和財務表現感到非常自豪。

I believe that our strategy to focus on disciplined land investment, while maintaining operational and organizational expertise has proven out as we've capitalized our market conditions, and have grown earnings per share at a compound annual growth rate of 30%, while delivering an average annual return on equity of 27.8% over the last 5 years.

我相信，我們專注於有紀律的土地投資，同時保持營運和組織專業知識的策略已被證明是行之有效的，因為我們充分利用了市場條件，每股收益以30% 的複合年增長率增長，同時實現了平均過去5年的年股本回報率為27.8%。

Of course, those achievements reflect what we have done as opposed to what we will do, and our future share price performance will depend on what we are able to achieve in the future.

當然，這些成就反映的是我們已經做了什麼，而不是我們將要做什麼，我們未來的股價表現將取決於我們未來能達成什麼成就。

To that end, I think it's important to share that we will continue to operate the business in a fashion that seeks to realize strong returns through the cycle.

為此，我認為有必要分享的是，我們將繼續以尋求在整個週期中實現強勁回報的方式經營業務。

For the long term, we have invested in high quality land position we believe will allow the company to grow over time.

從長遠來看，我們投資了優質的土地，相信這將使公司隨著時間的推移而發展。

Importantly, the optionality we have achieved in our controlled lot position give us the flexibility to pivot if the market faces unexpected headwinds.

重要的是，我們在控制地塊位置上所實現的可選性使我們能夠在市場面臨意外阻力時靈活地進行調整。

Similarly, in the near term, we have positioned our inventory production to be sufficient to meet projected demand.

同樣，在短期內，我們已經將庫存生產定位為足以滿足預期的需求。

It is important to remember that we are seeking to keep all of our communities productive, and have made sure that we have the inventory and planned start activity in place to meet that end.

重要的是要記住，我們正在尋求保持所有社區的生產力，並確保我們擁有庫存和計劃的啟動活動以實現這一目標。

However, as discussed earlier, we have higher spec inventory than we've traditionally carried.

然而，正如前面所討論的，我們的庫存規格比傳統庫存要高。

We've often said we will not be margin proud and will find pricing to make sure our standing inventory moves.

我們常說，我們不會為利潤而感到驕傲，我們會找到定價來確保我們的常備庫存能夠週轉。

We will continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

And as noted earlier, we will work to adjust our pricing and inventory positioning with a view towards driving our spec inventory levels back in line with recent norms.

正如之前提到的，我們將努力調整我們的定價和庫存定位，以使我們的規格庫存水準恢復到最近的標準。

I know stocks reflect performance, so we are seeking to grow our business and deliver ROE that remains among the industry leaders, while generating positive cash flow and maintaining a low risk profile, which we believe will drive the best returns for our shareholders.

我知道股票反映的是業績，因此我們正在尋求發展業務並實現保持在行業領先地位的 ROE，同時產生正現金流並保持低風險狀況，我們相信這將為我們的股東帶來最佳回報。

With all of that said, I'd like to take a moment to acknowledge the change that we announced back in July.

說了這麼多，我想花點時間來確認我們在 7 月宣布的變更。

As you know, Bob notified us of his retirement as our CFO, which will be effective after we file our 10-K next week.

如您所知，鮑伯通知我們他將辭去我們財務長的職務，這項決定將在下週我們提交 10-K 報表後生效。

As part of our succession plan, Bob will transition to a new role for the balance of the year, in part to ensure a smooth transition of the CFO role.

作為我們繼任計畫的一部分，鮑伯將在今年剩餘時間內轉換到新職位，部分是為了確保財務長職位的順利過渡。

But during which time he will also oversee our growth and strategic partnerships platform, including our land banking efforts, our asset management committee, and our financial services operations.

但在此期間，他還將監督我們的成長和策略合作夥伴平台，包括我們的土地銀行工作、我們的資產管理委員會和我們的金融服務業務。

I'd like to thank Bob for his 14 years with us and look forward to working with him over the coming year.

我感謝鮑伯與我們共事的 14 年，並期待在來年與他繼續合作。

I would also like to more formally introduce Jim Ossowski, who will be taking over as our CFO.

我還想更正式地介紹將接任我們財務長的吉姆·奧索斯基（Jim Ossowski）。

Jim is a 22-year veteran of Pulte, having come to us after working for a national accounting firm start of his career.

吉姆在普爾特工作了 22 年，職業生涯伊始，他在一家全國性會計師事務所工作，之後加入我們。

Jim has served in many capacities for us, including a number of field and corporate leadership positions.

吉姆曾在我們公司擔任過許多職務，包括多個現場和公司領導職務。

In fact, in his current role, he has been involved in all of our significant strategy and operating initiatives over the last 13 years.

事實上，在目前的職位上，他參與了我們過去 13 年裡的所有重大策略和營運計劃。

Throughout his career, he has demonstrated a strong understanding of the homebuilding business and has developed deep relationships with our Board, our senior leadership team, and our field operating teams.

在他的整個職業生涯中，他表現出了對房屋建築業務的深刻理解，並與我們的董事會、高級領導團隊和現場營運團隊建立了深厚的關係。

He has also exhibited a great ability to work with our service providers.

他也展現了與我們的服務提供者合作的卓越能力。

Based on the depth and breadth of his experiences and relationships, I am eminently confident in Jim's ability to seamlessly step into the CFO role.

基於他豐富的經驗和人脈，我非常有信心 Jim 能夠順利擔任財務長一職。

And finally, before I close, I would like to take a moment to express my continuing gratitude and thanks to each of our employees for their tireless efforts in supporting the delivering of superior homes and experiences to our homebuyers while providing outstanding financial returns to our investors.

最後，在結束之前，我想花點時間向我們的每一位員工表達我的感激之情，感謝他們不懈的努力，為我們的購房者提供優質的住房和體驗，同時為我們的投資者提供出色的財務回報。

We are now prepared to open the call for questions.

我們現在準備開始接受提問。

In order that we can get to as many questions as possible during the remaining time of this call, we would ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

為了能夠在本次通話的剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題，我們希望您將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I now ask the operator to again explain the process and to open the call for questions.

現在我請接線員再次解釋流程並開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Lovallo, UBS.

(操作員指示) 瑞銀 (UBS) 的 John Lovallo。

Good morning guys.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking my questions, and Bob, best of luck to you.

感謝您回答我的問題，鮑勃，祝你好運。

The first question is maybe just help us with the sequential walk from the fourth quarter into the first quarter, and then through the remainder of the year for gross margin.

第一個問題可能只是幫助我們了解從第四季到第一季的連續變化，以及今年剩餘時間的毛利率。

I think you're talking about 27% in the first quarter and then 26.5% to 27% in 2Q to 4Q?

我認為您說的是第一季的 27%，然後第二季到第四季的 26.5% 到 27%？

I mean, how would you sort of bucket the headwinds in terms of maybe working down some of the spec inventory, your higher incentives, product mix, and then stick and bricks and land cost inflation.

我的意思是，你會如何應對不利因素，例如減少一些規格庫存、更高的激勵措施、產品組合，以及木製品和土地成本通膨。

Yeah, John, good morning.

是的，約翰，早安。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

The fourth quarter, we feel really good about what our order results were in the fourth quarter, despite it being a more difficult selling environment.

第四季度，儘管銷售環境更加困難，但我們對第四季的訂單結果感到非常滿意。

The walk from October through December matched what we would consider to be a more seasonal pattern as you progress through the fourth quarter.

從十月到十二月的步行符合我們認為的第四季的季節性模式。

October being the best, November, a little less and December, the lowest total month.

十月是最好的，十一月稍差一點，十二月是整體最低的月份。

As we turned the corner into '25, we saw the continuation of what we would expect to be a normal seasonal selling pattern.

當我們進入25年時，我們看到了預期的正常季節性銷售模式的延續。

And including as we move toward the really important spring selling season, we're starting to see some green shoots.

隨著我們進入真正重要的春季銷售季節，我們開始看到一些復甦的跡象。

There's been some positive order activity.

已經出現了一些積極的訂單活動。

We note that it's still early in that kind of spring selling season, and we typically look to first part of February, Super Bowl timing to be the official start, but we're encouraged and optimistic by what we're seeing.

我們注意到，現在還處於春季銷售旺季的早期，我們通常預計 2 月初，超級盃比賽將正式開始，但我們對目前的情況感到鼓舞和樂觀。

In terms of the margin guide, we're -- we think we've done a really nice job in a tough environment, balancing the pace price mix and continuing to deliver what are industry leading gross margins.

就利潤率指南而言，我們認為我們在艱難的環境中做得非常好，平衡了價格組合，繼續實現業界領先的毛利率。

We noted that 27% will be our -- the 27% will be our Q1 margin guide, with the range of 26.5% to 27% for the balance of the year.

我們指出，27% 將是我們第一季的利潤率指導值，而今年剩餘時間的利潤率範圍將在 26.5% 至 27% 之間。

We believe based on what we know now today, we've factored in not only what's in our backlog, but also what we would expect to sell the standing inventory for, inclusive of anticipated discounts which the big assumption that we've made, John, is that those incentives are going to remain consistent with what we've experienced in the fourth quarter.

我們相信，根據我們今天所知道的情況，我們不僅考慮了積壓庫存，還考慮了我們預計出售庫存的價格，包括預期的折扣，這是我們做出的重大假設，約翰，這些激勵措施將與我們在第四季經歷的保持一致。

If things turn out differently than that, then we'd certainly have to have a different conversation.

如果事情結果與此不同，那麼我們肯定需要進行不同的對話。

But we feel pretty confident about where we sit now that we've positioned ourselves well to continue to have success in Q1 and beyond.

但我們對自己現在的狀況非常有信心，因為我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以繼續在第一季及以後取得成功。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then you're talking about.

然後你就談了。

Sorry, if I could just add one thing.

抱歉，我只想補充一點。

In terms of the structural kind of 26.5% to 27%, it does include a flat incentive from the exit from Q4.

就 26.5% 至 27% 的結構性成長而言，它確實包括了第四季度退出後的平穩激勵。

Just for your perspective, it's assuming relatively flat pricing, you can hear that in the guide we gave on ASPs, but I would note that land costs are up about 10% year-over-year.

僅從您的角度來看，我們假設價格相對平穩，您可以在我們給出的 ASP 指南中看到這一點，但我想指出的是，土地成本比去年同期上漲了約 10％。

So that's the primary driver of our cost increases.

這是我們成本增加的主要原因。

Understood, that's helpful.

明白了，這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then you guys mentioned sort of normal seasonality and then you talked about some green shoots.

然後你們提到了正常的季節性，然後談到了一些綠芽。

I mean when we think about the first quarter absorption, I think historically, it's been like 40% positive sequentially into the first quarter.

我的意思是，當我們考慮第一季的吸收量時，我認為從歷史上看，第一季的吸收量連續增加了 40%。

I mean is that a reasonable guide as we look into the spring selling season here?

我的意思是，當我們展望春季銷售季節時，這是一個合理的指導嗎？

Yeah, John, we haven't given a guide.

是的，約翰，我們還沒有給指南。

So I think we'll leave the comments kind of as we've made them to this point.

因此我認為我們會保留目前為止所發表的評論。

But we're encouraged by what we're seeing.

但我們看到的情況令我們感到鼓舞。

Alright, thank you guys.

好的，謝謝大家。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey guys, congratulations, Bob, and welcome, Jim.

嘿夥計們，恭喜你，鮑勃，歡迎你，吉姆。

Bob sounds like you're going to be busier in retirement than you were even as a CFO based on all the stuff you're going to be doing.

鮑勃，聽起來你退休後會比擔任財務長時更忙，從你要做的事情來看。

(multiple speakers) You talked about incentives, I think, 120 bps this quarter up a bit.

（多位發言者）您談到了激勵措施，我認為，本季的激勵措施略有增加，為 120 個基點。

Can you talk about the difference between move up, active adult versus the first time buyer?

您能談談升級購屋者、活躍成年人和首次購屋者之間的差異嗎？

Is the spread between the incentives you're using on both really wide or is it relatively narrow?

您對兩者所採用的激勵措施之間的差距真的很大還是相對較小？

Yeah, Carl, it's interesting.

是的，卡爾，這很有趣。

The -- we haven't provided that level of granularity, but I'll offer -- clearly, the first time buyer who is focused on monthly payment more than, say, to move up an active adult gets a richer look.

我們還沒有提供這種程度的細節，但我可以提供——顯然，首次購房者更關注每月付款，而不是升級為活躍的成年人，他們會得到更豐富的資訊。

And so especially if it's a government type loan, we've got programs that are for conventional (inaudible) So those are typically going to be a little bit more expensive.

特別是如果是政府類型的貸款，我們有針對傳統的（聽不清楚）的計劃，所以這些計劃通常會更貴一些。

When you get to that move up buyer, there might be other incentives that get mixed in with it.

當你接觸到那個升級買家時，可能還會有其他激勵措施混雜其中。

We're trying to, again, meet their desires as well as their financial needs.

我們再次嘗試滿足他們的願望和財務需求。

And then when you get to the active adult buyer, a lot of them are taking small or no mortgage at all.

然後，當你遇到活躍的成年買家時，你會發現其中許多買家只承擔少量抵押貸款，甚至根本不承擔抵押貸款。

So the incentive package looks a little different there.

因此，激勵方案看起來有些不同。

And that's not inconsistent with history, right?

這與歷史並不矛盾，對吧？

I mean that's always been the case.

我的意思是情況一直都是這樣的。

So I don't know if that helps, but just a little more color.

所以我不知道這是否有幫助，但只是多一點顏色而已。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bob.

謝謝你，鮑伯。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

And then, Bob, in your remarks about leverage, you used the word I hadn't heard in a while, which was transaction.

然後，鮑勃，在你關於槓桿的評論中，你使用了一個我很久沒聽過的詞，那就是交易。

And I haven't asked this in a while, but Ryan, we've talked in the past about the -- your potential interest in M&A or lack thereof, there have been a lot of movement there on the public to private side.

我已經有一段時間沒有問這個問題了，但 Ryan，我們過去曾經談論過——你對併購的潛在興趣或缺乏興趣，在從公共到私人方面已經發生了很多變化。

I'm curious as to whether or not that it becomes potentially a more interesting opportunity for you given the value of the stock on a relative basis, but really also the desire to want to grow the business long term, especially via the new vehicles you'll be using off balance sheet as you go forward.

我很好奇，考慮到股票的相對價值，這是否會成為你更感興趣的機會，但實際上，你也希望長期發展業務，特別是透過你購買的新車輛。數據。

So I love your comments on that.

所以我很喜歡你對此的評論。

And thank you.

謝謝你。

Yeah, Carl, it's a great question.

是的，卡爾，這是一個很好的問題。

I would summarize it by saying our view is really unchanged.

我想總結一下，我們的觀點確實沒有改變。

We've always been open to kind of M&A activity with the strong kind of caveat, we prefer to grow the business organically, but we look at a lot of things.

我們一直對併購活動持開放態度，但有一個強烈的警告，我們更傾向於有機地發展業務，但我們會考慮很多事情。

I was looking at a tally sheet that we use.

我正在看我們使用的統計表。

I think we evaluated something north of 20 plus potential acquisition opportunities last year, most of them pretty small, and you know that we didn't do any of them.

我認為去年我們評估了超過 20 個潛在收購機會，其中大多數規模都很小，而且你知道我們並沒有進行任何收購。

So we look at a lot of things, but we're really selective, really judicious.

因此，我們會考慮很多事情，但我們會非常有選擇性，非常明智。

We've got a great operating platform.

我們擁有出色的營運平台。

We've got really good relative market share in most of our markets.

我們在大多數市場都擁有非常好的相對市場份額。

So we remain open, and we'll evaluate a lot of things, but we're going to be super thoughtful because of how disciplined we've been in underwriting our own land, which has been the primary driver of our outperformance on ROE, and we want to stay disciplined with that.

因此，我們保持開放態度，會評估很多事情，但我們會非常謹慎，因為我們在承保自有土地方面非常嚴謹，這也是我們 ROE 表現優異的主要驅動力。

I appreciate it, Ryan.

我很感激，瑞安。

Thanks so much guys.

非常感謝大家。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim)，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks a lot guys, appreciate it.

是的，非常感謝大家，非常感謝。

Just first question, I guess, relates to the gross margin.

我想，第一個問題與毛利率有關。

Actually, before I say that, welcome, Jim, and best of luck to you also, Bob, and also our best wishes for Jim Zeumer as well.

實際上，在我說這些之前，我要歡迎吉姆，也祝你好運，鮑勃，同時也向吉姆·澤默致以最良好的祝愿。

My first question on margins, taking the gross margin first.

我的第一個問題是關於利潤率，先考慮毛利率。

If we look at your guidance that you've given, I'm curious whether that trajectory over the year assumes any benefit at all from having more active adult communities by the end of the year?

如果我們看看您給予的指導，我很好奇，今年的發展軌跡是否意味著到今年年底擁有更多活躍的成人社區會帶來任何好處？

Or is that margin benefit likely to be only seen in fiscal '26.

或者利潤率收益可能只會在26財年才會顯現。

And can you give us a sense for what you think the sort of the long-term sustainable gross or operating margin you feel comfortable with this?

您能否告訴我們，您認為可以接受的長期可持續毛利率或營業利潤率是多少？

Stephen, thanks for the question.

史蒂芬，謝謝你的提問。

As it relates to gross margin in active adult specifically, the replacement communities will start to come online toward the middle part of this year, middle to end part of this year from an open -- a grand opening and starting sales, which means the majority of the margin benefit won't be felt until we get into 2026.

因為它與活躍成人的毛利率有關，替代社區將在今年中期開始上線，從今年中期到年底，從盛大的開業和開始銷售開始，這意味著大多數的利潤效益要到2026 年才會顯現出來。

And then we haven't given kind of that long term kind of outlook, long term view in terms of where margins can go.

然後，我們還沒有給出長期的前景，也沒有給出關於利潤率可以達到多少的長期看法。

There's just, I think, too many factors to influence that.

我認為，影響這一點的因素太多了。

We have given a full year guide.

我們給了全年指南。

And for this year, which we feel good about given kind of the assumptions that I think we've articulated, but we haven't really gone much beyond that in terms of guide.

對於今年，我們對此感到滿意，因為我認為我們已經闡明了這些假設，但是就指導而言，我們實際上並沒有超越這一點。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

It does feel that you've sort of -- maybe some contrary to some competitors have sort of said that you're going to not be beholden to a particular volume level you're going to modulate that with demand.

我感覺你有點——也許與一些競爭對手相反，你說過你不會受制於特定的音量水平，你會根據需求進行調節。

And so I would think that you would have a little bit more margin stability than your competitors may, which is why I asked the question.

因此我認為你們的利潤率會比競爭對手更穩定一些，這就是我問這個問題的原因。

But second question, actually, I'm going to shift gears and talk a little bit about the labor side of the equation.

但第二個問題，實際上，我要換個話題，稍微談談這個等式的勞動面。

Obviously, one of I think the additional big wildcards this spring is going to be whether or not we see any particularly active ICE enforcements in the construction industry.

顯然，我認為今年春季的另一個重大不確定因素是我們是否會看到 ICE 在建築業採取特別積極的執法行動。

And I'm curious if how or if you are preparing your divisions for any potential rates or maybe more likely just potential slowdowns you've made -- you've seen -- we've seen supply shocks before.

我很好奇，您是否為您的部門做好了應對潛在利率或更可能的潛在經濟放緩的準備——您已經看到——我們之前已經看到過供應衝擊。

We saw them during the pandemic.

我們在疫情期間見到了他們。

And I think what a lot of investors think is that in a supply shock and inflation environment, spec building offers a lot of advantages because you're not locking in the home price early, and then bearing that cost and margin risk that could come later.

我認為許多投資人認為，在供應衝擊和通膨環境下，投機性投資具有許多優勢，因為你不必提前鎖定房價，也不必承擔日後可能出現的成本和保證金風險。

So I'm curious, you've said that you're going to reduce your spec activity.

所以我很好奇，你說過你要減少你的規格活動。

But would you agree, in general, that in a period of supply shocks that actually spec building can afford some advantages?

但總體而言，您是否同意，在供應衝擊時期，投機建設實際上可以帶來一些優勢？

And would you be willing to pivot in some way, if you were to see slowdowns brought on by increased ICE activity?

如果您發現由於 ICE 活動增加而導致經濟放緩，您是否願意採取某種方式做出調整？

Yeah, Stephen, it's a good question.

是的，史蒂芬，這是個好問題。

Maybe let me first start with -- it's been a long-standing policy of our company trade partners and the labor that are on our job sites, we require verified residency status and or work permits that allow them to work legally in the US.

也許讓我先說一下——這是我們公司貿易夥伴和工作現場勞動力的長期政策，我們要求他們提供經過驗證的居住身份和/或工作許可，以允許他們在美國合法工作。

That's been our position for a long time and continue to be our position.

這是我們長期以來的立場，並將繼續是我們的立場。

In terms of kind of impacts to the broader labor force, even beyond just construction labor to the extent that there are deportation activities, there's no question there'll be less labor available, and that will have an impact on all wage rates, and we'll certainly have to deal with that as that becomes more clear.

就對更廣泛勞動力的影響而言，甚至不僅限於建築工人，如果發生驅逐活動，毫無疑問，可用的勞動力會減少，這將影響所有工資率，我們當情況變得更加明朗時，我們肯定要處理這個問題。

To your final question on spec and is spec inventory more beneficial in a supply shock environment.

關於規格的最後一個問題，在供應衝擊環境下，規格庫存是否更有利。

Yeah, I think it can be, and we certainly saw that in the kind of post-COVID era.

是的，我認為可以，而且我們確實在後疫情時代看到了這一點。

What you've seen from our company is that we are capable of running a mostly built to order business.

您從我們公司看到，我們有能力開展大部分按訂單生產的業務。

We're also capable of running a kind of medium -- kind of low medium to medium spec business as well, which is where I think we're operating today.

我們也能夠經營某種中型——中低端到中等規格的業務，我認為這就是我們今天的運作方式。

We've set that number of 40% to 45% is what we think is optimal for our consumer and our brand mix, but allows us to get the benefits of both the build to order margins from the move up in the active adult buyers that are personalizing their homes, but still gives us an spec in the first time to use the powerful forward commitment incentives, and also to protect some of the margin, if there are supply shock -- supply chain shock type situation.

我們設定的 40% 到 45% 的數字是我們認為對我們的消費者和品牌組合最有利的，但同時也讓我們能夠從活躍成年買家的增加中獲得定制利潤的好處。的房屋，但仍然為我們提供了在第一時間使用強大的遠期承諾激勵的規範，並且還可以保護一些利潤，如果出現供應衝擊- 供應鏈衝擊類型的情況。

So if we're at 53% today, we're going to work it down into the historical range.

因此，如果我們今天的比例達到 53%，我們就會將其降至歷史範圍內。

If we needed to turn up a little bit more, I think we've clearly got the ability to do that.

如果我們需要再多表現一點，我想我們顯然有能力做到這一點。

Got you.

明白了。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks a lot guys.

非常感謝大家。

Alan Ratner, Zelman.

艾倫拉特納、澤爾曼。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿，大家早安。

Thanks for all the great info so far, and congrats to Bob and Jim as well.

感謝您迄今為止提供的所有精彩信息，也祝賀鮑勃和吉姆。

Ryan, I guess, first question on the closing guide for roughly flat closings, and you guys did a great job of balancing pace and price over the years.

瑞安，我想，第一個問題是關於大致持平的收盤指南，多年來，你們在平衡速度和價格方面做得很好。

So I understand the interplay there and kind of the perhaps more competitive discounting environment today than maybe we thought we would be in three or six months ago.

因此，我了解其中的相互作用，而且今天的折扣環境可能比我們三到六個月前認為的更具競爭力。

But I think you gave kind of a longer-term guide of 5% to 10% growth.

但我認為您給了 5% 到 10% 的長期成長指引。

And I'm just curious as you look at where your margins are today.

我很好奇您現在的利潤是多少。

How much margin do you feel like you would need to give up in order to achieve that 5% to 10% growth that it seems like a lot of the industry is targeting kind of entering 2025.

為了實現 5% 到 10% 的成長（似乎許多行業都設定了 2025 年的成長目標），您認為需要放棄多少利潤率？

Yeah, Alan.

是的，艾倫。

Thanks for the question, and we still think the long term growth guide of 5% to 10% is appropriate.

感謝您的提問，我們仍然認為 5% 到 10% 的長期成長指導是合適的。

And we really look at it first and foremost from the way that we're investing in land and new communities.

我們首先從投資土地和新社區的角度來看這個問題。

You'll note that we grew community count in '24 by 4%, and we grew our volume deliveries by 9%.

您會注意到，24 年我們的社區數量增加了 4%，交付量增加了 9%。

As we move into '25, we're projecting for community count to still be in that 3% to 4% range.

隨著我們進入25年，我們預計社區數量仍將在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。

But we've seen a bit of a pullback on community absorptions given the discounting environment.

但考慮到折扣環境，我們看到社區吸收量有所回落。

So we're projecting for a flat volume growth.

因此，我們預計銷量將保持平穩成長。

Certainly in '24, we got the benefit of moving some home -- more homes out of the backlog as we reduce cycle time.

當然，在 24 年，我們獲得了一些好處——隨著我們縮短了周期時間，更多的房屋從積壓中解脫出來。

But I think we're definitely positioning the company from a land investment standpoint to deliver that long term kind of multiyear growth target.

但我認為，我們肯定會從土地投資的角度來定位公司，以實現長期的多年成長目標。

We do believe, as I highlighted in some of my prepared remarks that from an overall return on invested capital basis, we're comfortable managing the pace price balance in a way that we think, yields the best outcome on return.

我們確實相信，正如我在一些準備好的評論中所強調的那樣，從投資資本的整體回報率來看，我們願意以我們認為可以產生最佳回報的方式管理速度價格平衡。

In this current environment, the amount of incremental discount that we'd have to apply in order to drive more valve volume, we don't believe that's a favorable return outcome.

在當前環境下，為了推動更多的閥門銷量，我們必須應用增量折扣的金額，我們認為這不是一個有利的回報結果。

And so we'll continue to pressure test those assumptions.

因此，我們將繼續對這些假設進行壓力測試。

What we've laid out for 2025 is what we think yields the best outcome for how we've positioned the business.

我們認為，我們為 2025 年制定的目標將為我們的業務定位帶來最佳結果。

Understood.

明白了。

I appreciate the thought process there.

我很欣賞那裡的思考過程。

Second question, if we could spend a second talking about Florida.

第二個問題，我們可以花一點時間討論佛羅裡達州嗎？

I feel like that's probably a lot of the concerns surrounding your company that we hear from investors, just the exposure there, about a quarter of your business is in Florida.

我覺得這可能是我們從投資者那裡聽到的有關貴公司的許多擔憂，僅就那裡的曝光率而言，貴公司約四分之一的業務在佛羅裡達州。

But not only that, I mean, your margins historically in the state has been incredibly strong.

但不僅如此，我的意思是，你們在該州的歷史上的利潤率一直非常強勁。

And it feels like with the building resale inventory environment there, concerns over storms and homeowners insurance and just a general softening that if there was a bear point we hear, it's that you're going to have a hard time sustaining those types of margins in Florida.

感覺那裡的建築轉售庫存環境、對風暴和房主保險的擔憂以及普遍的疲軟，如果我們聽到一個熊市點，那就是你將很難維持這種類型的利潤率佛羅裡達。

So kind of a big picture question on the state, but what are your current thoughts on Florida?

這是一個關於該州的宏觀問題，但是您現在對佛羅裡達州有什麼看法？

And where do you see that business going for you guys going forward?

您認為你們未來的業務發展如何？

Yeah, Alan.

是的，艾倫。

You know, thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Florida has been just a tremendous market for the company.

佛羅裡達州對該公司來說是一個巨大的市場。

We're in five -- we've got five divisions there in most of the major cities in Florida, and our move-up and active adult lifestyle communities have been really the driver of the outperformance in Florida.

我們在佛羅裡達州的大多數主要城市設有五個分部，我們的向上和活躍的成人生活方式社區一直是佛羅裡達州表現優異的真正推動力。

Margin and the margin that we generate out of Florida is certainly important.

我們在佛羅裡達州獲得的利潤當然很重要。

But once again, like you've heard from us a lot, return is the focus.

但是再說一遍，就像您經常聽到我們說的那樣，回報是重點。

So whether it's an investment in Florida or an investment in Cleveland, Ohio, we're looking at return on invested capital ultimately.

因此，無論是在佛羅裡達州的投資還是在俄亥俄州克利夫蘭的投資，我們最終關注的是投資資本的回報。

Our -- we've got an insurance agency that has been very effective at continuing to be able to provide coverage to our homeowners in Florida.

我們有一家保險公司，能夠有效地繼續為佛羅裡達州的房主提供保險。

I'd also note and your point about storms concerns around storms are certainly valid.

我還注意到，你對風暴的擔憂無疑是正確的。

But I'd note that where our communities are located, the way they're built and designed, they're higher, they're further inland, they're less susceptible to some of the kind of tragic catastrophic things that you see of homes and communities that are right on the water.

但我要指出的是，我們的社區所在位置、建築和設計方式都比較高，位於內陸，因此它們不太容易受到你所看到的一些悲慘災難的影響。 。

So Florida, there's a lot of sun there.

佛羅裡達那裡陽光充足。

There's a lot of jobs there.

那裡有很多工作機會。

There's very -- there's a zero state income tax.

這裡的州所得稅為零。

So there's a tremendous -- there's no snow for the northern folks.

因此，對於北方人來說，這是一個巨大的打擊——沒有雪。

So there's still a lot of attractive things about Florida despite maybe having a few recent challenges.

因此，儘管佛羅裡達州最近可能面臨一些挑戰，但它仍然有很多吸引人的地方。

So we'll keep our head up and pay attention to what's happening in Florida.

因此，我們會保持警惕，並關注佛羅裡達州的情況。

For the time being, though, we're still very encouraged by what the business can do there.

不過，就目前而言，我們仍然對該業務在那裡所取得的成就感到非常鼓舞。

Thanks Ryan.

謝謝瑞安。

Mike Dahl, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Mike Dahl。

Hi, this is Chris on for Mike.

大家好，我是克里斯，代表麥克。

Just going back to the 26.5%, 27% gross margin range for this year.

回到今年的毛利率範圍 26.5% 至 27%。

Is that where you guys are currently underwriting land to on a gross margin basis?

你們目前是以毛利率為基礎承保土地的嗎？

Or should we still expect some downward pressure as newer land bids just come through?

或者，隨著新的土地競標陸續出台，我們仍應預期會出現一些下行壓力？

Yeah, Chris, we don't underwrite the margin.

是的，克里斯，我們不承保保證金。

We underwrite to return.

我們承保退貨。

So the margin guide that we've given is for the closing business in 2025.

因此，我們給出的利潤指南是針對 2025 年結束的業務。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I guess -- so what are you guys seeing this year in terms of -- or what are you expecting this year for log cost inflation and stick and brick inflation?

我想——那麼你們對今年的看法是怎樣的——或者你們對今年原木成本通膨和木棍及磚塊通膨的預期是什麼？

On the sticks and bricks, as we exited '24, we're at about $82 a square foot, so really minimal.

就木棍和磚塊而言，當我們退出 24 時，我們的成本約為每平方英尺 82 美元，所以真的很少。

As we baked our -- or created our guide for 2025, we again expect very low single-digit increases.

當我們制定或創建 2025 年指南時，我們再次預期成長率將非常低。

That's absent any potential impacts from tariffs that are being discussed, but again, expect very low single-digit increases on the house side.

這不包括正在討論的關稅的任何潛在影響，但同樣，預計房屋方面的增幅將非常低的個位數。

And then land, Jim.

然後著陸，吉姆。

And on the land side, as Bob stated earlier, we're expecting a 10% increase in land cost this year.

在土地方面，正如鮑伯之前所說，我們預計今年的土地成本將增加 10%。

And that's inclusive of raw land and develop cost -- developed lot cost overall, inclusive of land and development to be close to 10%.

這包括原始土地和開發成本——總體已開發地塊成本，包括土地和開發成本接近 10%。

Understood.

明白了。

Appreciate the color.

感謝色彩。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可‧雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

And Bob, best of luck great working with you, and Jim, congrats on the promotion.

鮑勃，祝你好運，很高興與你共事，吉姆，恭喜你升職。

First, I'd love to just review, if possible, just a little bit more around the regions, how you feel trends have been, obviously, there's a lot of concern, as talked about earlier with inventory levels in Florida as well as Texas.

首先，如果可能的話，我想再回顧一下各地區的情況，你覺得趨勢如何，顯然，人們有很多擔憂，就像之前談到的佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的庫存水平一樣。

But just love to get around your footprint, which markets maybe you would characterize as better than average versus worse than average?

但是只是想了解您的足跡，您可能會將哪些市場描述為優於平均水平，哪些市場比平均水平差？

And how things have trended so far in this year?

今年到目前為止的情況如何？

Yeah, Mike, thanks for the question.

是的，麥克，謝謝你的提問。

I'd start by giving some well-deserved acknowledgment to our midwest and northeast business.

首先我要對我們的中西部和東北部業務表示應有的感謝。

They've been incredibly resilient and have performed well.

他們有著令人難以置信的堅韌品質並且表現出色。

The discounts that we've had in those locations have been less than in other places.

我們在這些地方獲得的折扣比其他地方少。

And I think it's reflective of the highs, and those spots aren't typically as high, and the lows aren't typically as low.

我認為這反映了高點，而這些點通常不會那麼高，低點通常也不會那麼低。

So midwest and northeast has been a nice bright spot for the company.

因此，中西部和東北部一直是該公司的亮點。

The other places, I would tell you have been about as expected and kind of flat year-over-year.

我想說的是，其他地方的情況大致符合預期，與去年同期相比持平。

We did have a slight decline in our Texas orders on a year-over-year comparison basis.

與去年同期相比，我們德州的訂單確實略有下降。

And that's really reflective of what we highlighted with our first time buyer business, being down in the quarter, mostly driven by affordability concerns, and we've got a lot of our business in Texas oriented against that first time buyer business.

這確實反映了我們首次購房者業務的突出特點，本季度業務下滑，主要是受負擔能力擔憂的影響，我們在德克薩斯州的許多業務都是針對首次購房者業務的。

So -- and then Florida, I think, is the other one that folks are focused on.

所以 — — 我認為佛羅裡達是人們關注的另一個地方。

There's a lot of questions.

有很多問題。

Our sign-ups on a year-over-year basis in Florida were flat.

與去年同期相比，我們在佛羅裡達州的註冊人數持平。

So we're -- as I talked about when we asked when I think John asked about Q4 to Q1, Texas and Florida included in this, we're seeing some green shoots and some positive energy from the sales floor.

因此，正如我剛才所說，當我們問到約翰詢問第四季度與第一季度的情況時，包括德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州在內，我們看到了銷售現場的一些復甦跡象和積極能量。

So we'll continue to look toward the spring selling season.

因此，我們將繼續關注春季銷售旺季。

Great, great.

很好，很好。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

And second question, I just wanted to circle back to some of Bob's comments earlier on leverage and kind of, I guess, moving off of that prior gross leverage target of 20% to 30%.

第二個問題，我只是想回到鮑勃之前關於槓桿率的一些評論，我想，他可能會改變之前 20% 到 30% 的總槓桿率目標。

And it sounds like kind of implying a more persistent, even lower level of leverage compared to that.

這聽起來像是在暗示一種相比之下更持久甚至更低的槓桿水平。

But just to push a little bit on how we should think about share repurchase.

但只是想稍微推動一下我們應該如何考慮股票回購。

I mean, certainly, even with the current trends, it looks like your leverage is only going to go further south.

我的意思是，即使按照目前的趨勢，你的影響力似乎只會進一步減弱。

And just trying to understand why shouldn't we, as investors or sell side, buy side expect some level of a solid step-up in share repurchase in 2025 that even with a solid step up, you'd still probably have, by our estimates, even more conservative leverage in '25 versus '24.

只是想理解為什麼我們作為投資者或賣方、買方不應該期望 2025 年股票回購出現一定程度的穩步增長，即使出現了穩步增長，你仍然可能，按照我們的估計，與24年相比，25年的槓桿率甚至更加保守。

Is there anything that we're missing?

我們是否遺漏了什麼？

Obviously, I know you like to have some optionality for transactions or other things.

顯然，我知道您希望在交易或其他事情上擁有一些可選性。

But if a lot option is only going up.

但如果很多選擇只會上升。

It looks like your balance sheet even with leverage getting more conservative, could still support a solid step up in share repurchase in '25.

看起來，即使槓桿率變得更加保守，您的資產負債表仍可以支持 25 年股票回購的穩定成長。

So just trying to understand if we're missing anything, or if that's kind of directionally the way we'd be thinking about it.

所以只是想了解我們是否遺漏了什麼，或者這是否是我們思考它的方向。

And Mike, it's a fair question.

麥克，這是一個合理的問題。

And I think we've demonstrated over the last, gosh, almost 15 years that we're going to be pretty disciplined about this, and see consistency.

我認為，我們在過去近 15 年的時間裡已經證明，我們將在這方面保持相當的自律，並保持一致性。

So we haven't seen a tick a lot of big swings on equity, really, the only time we did was back in 2016 and '17, where we bought a lot of stock in a relatively short period of time.

因此，我們實際上並沒有看到股權出現太多大幅波動，唯一一次出現這種情況是在 2016 年和 2017 年，當時我們在相對較短的時間內購買了大量股票。

But if you go back over the last five years, and what we've been doing is using the cash that we're generating in the business to buy back stock or pay down debt.

但如果回顧過去五年，我們一直在做的就是利用業務中產生的現金回購股票或償還債務。

And so have any maturities in the next 12 months.

未來 12 個月內到期的任何債券也同樣如此。

So I think unless we went out and did a tender, which we've done in the past.

因此我認為，除非我們出去招標，就像我們過去所做的那樣。

But unless we did that, I wouldn't expect leverage to move from here.

但如果我們這樣做的話，我認為槓桿率不會從現在開始改變。

The other rate environment tells us how to think about that and the way our bonds trade, obviously.

顯然，其他利率環境告訴我們如何看待這個問題以及我們的債券交易方式。

So when we do, if we're buying back debt, it's because it's NPV accretive, right?

所以當我們回購債務時，是因為它可以增加淨現值，對嗎？

We want to invest wisely.

我們希望明智地投資。

Could the company withstand more leverage?

該公司能否承受更大的槓桿？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

We were never uncomfortable with 20% to 30%.

我們從未對 20% 到 30% 的比例感到不舒服。

It's just that the decisions we were making were leading us to a lower number, and we wanted to reflect that.

只是我們所做的決定導致這個數字更低，我們想反映這一點。

We got asked a bunch of times.

我們被問過很多次。

Hey, when are you going to borrow to get inside that 20% to 30%?

嘿，你什麼時候要藉錢才能達到那 20% 到 30% 的利率呢？

And our answer is always like, if we have a reason to, we will, and we'll tell you about it.

我們的回答始終是，如果我們有理由這麼做，我們就會這麼做，並且會告訴你。

So we've historically not wanted to guide on share repurchase activities, we've told you.

所以，從歷史上看，我們不想對股票回購活動提供指導，我們已經告訴過你了。

We'll think about that, and we have.

我們會考慮這個問題，而且我們已經考慮了。

Haven't yet come to the point of doing that, maybe Jim will.

還沒到那個地步，也許吉姆會的。

But at the end of the day, again, I think our track record is pretty consistent, and is demonstrating the desire to do more.

但最終，我再次認為，我們的業績記錄非常穩定，並且表明了我們想要做更多事情的願望。

We've just announced a $1.5 billion authorization increase.

我們剛剛宣布增加15億美元的授權。

So we'll report the news.

因此我們將報道該新聞。

But again, a fair question.

但同樣，這是一個公平的問題。

I don't know that we've got a complete answer for you, but there you have it.

我不知道我們是否能給你完整的答案，但是你已經知道了。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

艾林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First question, just back on the finished inventory level.

第一個問題，回到成品庫存水準。

I think if I heard you correctly, your finished spec number implies about 1.9 finished expert community.

我想如果我沒聽錯的話，您的完成的規格數字意味著大約有 1.9 個完成的專家社群。

Clearly, above your historical 1% on target, but then you've also moved your model to be more towards spec.

顯然，這高於您歷史設定的 1% 目標，但隨後您也讓您的模型更符合規格。

You're talking about moving spec production lower going forward.

您正在談論今後降低規格產量。

But I think I also heard you suggest maybe it also depends on how demand plays out in the spring selling season.

但我想我也聽過您的建議，也許這也取決於春季銷售季節的需求情況。

So I guess the question is, have you already started to pull back on your specs?

所以我想問題是，您是否已經開始降低自己的規格了？

Are you waiting to see how demand shakes out in the spring selling season?

您是否正在等待觀察春季銷售旺季的需求如何變化？

And then maybe just some commentary on how you view completed inventory levels in the markets you play in for industry as a whole?

然後您是否能就您如何看待您所處市場中整個行業的完成庫存水準發表一些評論？

Yeah, Trevor, so, yes, we've already pulled back on start rate.

是的，特雷弗，是的，我們已經降低了起動率。

We started doing that in the fourth quarter.

我們從第四季開始這樣做。

And we'll continue to monitor that as we move through the first quarter of this year, the rate at which we start homes will appropriately match to the sales environment.

我們將繼續監控今年第一季的情況，確保房屋開工率與銷售環境相符。

In addition to that, and part of the reason we're so comfortable with the inventory level that we have, despite being a little higher than we normally run at.

除此之外，這也是我們對現有庫存水準感到滿意的原因之一，儘管庫存水準比正常水準略高。

We're optimistic about what the spring selling season to provide.

我們對春季銷售旺季的表現持樂觀態度。

We wanted to have some incremental inventory, which we put into the ground.

我們希望有一些增量庫存，並將其埋入地下。

Given the softness in Q4, we probably have a little bit more than we thought we would.

考慮到第四季的疲軟表現，我們的業績可能比我們想像的要好一些。

But were other than making some modest changes.

但除了做出一些適度改變之外。

I don't think that we have an emergency type issue.

我不認為我們遇到了緊急類型的問題。

In terms of kind of inventory in the markets where we compete, certainly, inventory has increased in most regions, both on the new home and the resale level.

就我們競爭的市場中的庫存類型而言，大多數地區的庫存肯定都有所增加，包括新房和轉售水準。

But even though there's been an increase, we still think that the full numbers are below except for a couple of specific markets, most of the inventory is still way below what would be considered normal.

但即使有所增加，我們仍然認為，除幾個特定市場外，整體數字仍低於正常水準。

We talked a lot about in the prepared script, we still think demand for housing is at high levels, and we've got a healthy economy with a good job market.

我們在準備好的腳本中討論了很多內容，我們仍然認為住房需求處於高水平，而且我們的經濟健康，就業市場良好。

And affordability is probably the one headwind that's out there.

而負擔能力可能是目前面臨的唯一阻力。

But I continue to think that the economy will figure out ways to solve for that.

但我仍然認為經濟會找到解決這個問題的方法。

Yeah, it makes a lot of sense, definitely encouraging regarding the spring.

是的，這非常有意義，對於春天來說絕對令人鼓舞。

And then second question is just on cycle times.

第二個問題是關於週期時間。

How did those trends sequentially -- you previously talked to being under 100 days here early in 2025.

這些趨勢是如何連續的——您之前談到 2025 年初這裡的時間會少於 100 天。

Is that the expectation still?

這仍然是我們的期望嗎？

And then do you expect to see further improvement beyond that point in 2025?

那麼您是否預期 2025 年以後還會出現進一步的改善？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So in the fourth quarter, we were at 111 working days.

因此在第四季度，我們的工作日為 111 個。

I tell you that most of our divisions are down to their pre-COVID cycle time levels.

我告訴您，我們大多數部門的周期時間都已恢復到疫情之前的水平。

So as we exit the year, we think we've gotten down to our goal, and still would expect to be down to 100 in the first half in '25.

因此，在年底之際，我們認為我們已經實現了我們的目標，並且預計在 2025 年上半年這一數字將降至 100。

And the Trevor, the one thing I would highlight on that is what's driving the 111 days, we've got four or five divisions that build big multiple buildings that take well in excess of the year to complete.

特雷弗，我想強調的一件事是，這 111 天的工程到底是什麼？

So -- but as Jim highlighted, our markets that are kind of pure play, single family, and townhome type builds were below 100 days.

所以 — — 但正如吉姆所強調的那樣，我們的純粹市場、獨戶住宅和聯排別墅類型的建設時間都少於 100 天。

And we think our construction and procurement teams have done an unbelievable job gets back to that pre-COVID cycle time level.

我們認為，我們的施工和採購團隊做出了令人難以置信的工作，恢復到了疫情之前的周期時間水平。

Thanks for all the color, and good luck moving forward.

感謝你們帶來的所有色彩，祝福你們未來好運。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修‧布萊 (Matthew Bouley)。

Hi, good morning everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您回答這些問題。

I guess just a couple around the margin.

我猜只有邊緣處有幾個。

You mentioned kind of finding the right price to move that spec inventory if needed.

您提到過，如果需要的話，可以找到合適的價格來轉移該規格庫存。

So I guess just how does that balance with the assumption that you're assuming incentives would stay unchanged from Q4.

所以我想，這與您假設激勵措施與第四季度相比保持不變的假設如何平衡。

Like to the extent that finished inventory has been rising.

例如成品庫存不斷上升的程度。

Would that signal that we have not found an equilibrium, so the incentives would need to move higher to move those homes?

這是否意味著我們尚未找到平衡點，因此需要提高激勵措施來搬遷這些房屋？

Or is your view perhaps based on history that normal rising seasonality of housing demand into the spring, that would be enough that you wouldn't have to alter incentives.

或者您的觀點是否基於歷史，即春季住房需求的正常季節性上升足以讓您不必改變激勵措施。

So just kind of any color on how you're approaching that.

因此，無論您如何接近這一點，都可以採用任何顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, Matt, it was a fairly -- it was a top sales environment in Q3, back half of Q3 and into Q4, and you can see the heavier incentive load.

是的，馬特，這是一個相當不錯的情況——第三季、後半段以及第四季的銷售環境都非常好，你可以看到激勵負擔變得更重了。

So I think the short answer is we believe that -- Bob mentioned it, but we believe that the incentive load that we had in Q4 as an exit rate is sufficient to deliver the volume and the margin guide that we have in Q1, combined with the healthy economy, combined with spring selling season, when we factor all of those things in, we feel good about the guide that we've given.

因此，我認為簡短的回答是我們相信 - 鮑勃提到了這一點，但我們相信我們在第四季度作為退出率的激勵負荷足以實現我們在第一季度的銷量和利潤率指導，再加上健康的經濟，加上春季銷售旺季，當我們將所有這些因素考慮進去時，我們對所給予的指導感到滿意。

So I'm not sure that I can probably add any more color.

所以我不確定是否還能添加更多顏色。

Bob or Jim, I don't know if you guys have anything else you'd add to that to the question.

鮑伯或吉姆，我不知道你們是否還有其他要補充的。

No, no.

不，不。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that Ryan.

謝謝你，瑞安。

And then the second margin question is just, I guess, to have flat or nearly flat gross margins going forward, I guess everything else needs to be kind of flat or offsetting each other sequentially.

然後，我想第二個利潤率問題就是，為了讓未來的毛利率持平或接近持平，我想其他所有方面都需要保持持平或連續相互抵消。

So you mentioned land up 10% on a year-over-year basis in construction costs, I think I heard you say up low single digits.

所以您提到土地建築成本同比上漲了 10％，我想我聽到您說的是上漲個位數。

And I guess you're guiding to deliver ASP up around 3% in 2025.

我猜您預計 2025 年 ASP 將會上漲 3% 左右。

I'm not sure how much mix plays into that.

我不確定混合在其中起到了多大作用。

But again, just given those moving pieces, and you do have higher lot in construction costs, I mean what is it that would allow you to hold the margins flat sequentially beyond that first quarter?

但是，再說一遍，考慮到這些變動因素，而且你們的建築成本確實更高，我的意思是，什麼能讓你們在第一季之後保持利潤率平穩？

So Matt, it's basically all of those pieces.

所以馬特，基本上就是所有這些部分。

You just mentioned, we've got about a 3% increase in ASP.

您剛才提到，我們的平均售價上漲了約 3%。

That's enough to offset what we're anticipating in a lot and house cost increases, most of.

這足以抵消我們預期的大部分地段和房屋成本的上漲。

All right, got it.

好的，明白了。

Thanks guys.

謝謝大家。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Hi, hi, good morning guys.

嗨，嗨，大家早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Just starting first on the incentives.

首先從激勵措施開始。

Just can you talk about from a regional perspective, were there meaningful differences with the incentive level?

您能否從地區角度談談，激勵程度是否有顯著差異？

Yeah, Rafe, we don't give that level of granularity.

是的，Rafe，我們沒有給出那個級別的粒度。

I think Bob talked a little bit about it on a question that Carl asked earlier by consumer group.

我認為鮑勃已經就卡爾之前在消費者小組提出的一個問題談了一些內容。

The incentives than the types of incentives vary between entry level, move up and first time.

激勵措施的類型在入門級、晉升級和首次級之間有所不同。

But we typically don't give a breakdown of incentives by region.

但我們通常不會按地區細分激勵措施。

Okay.

好的。

And then just on the land cost inflation comments of burning up 10% right now.

然後僅就土地成本通膨評論而言，目前已上漲 10%。

Can you just talk about how you would expect that to trend sort of through '25 or maybe even to '26?

您能否談談您預計這種趨勢將如何持續到 25 年甚至 26 年？

Like the land that you're contracting today, are you seeing any relief on land prices or even like the horizontal development side?

就像您今天承包的土地，您是否看到土地價格有任何緩解，甚至像橫向開發方面？

And then just within that, can you remind us how much of your own development you're doing right now?

那麼，您能否提醒我們一下您目前正在進行多少開發工作？

And how you expect that to change your going forward?

您期望這會對您未來的發展帶來什麼改變？

Yeah.

是的。

So I'll take the last part first.

因此我先講最後一部分。

We do the majority of our own development, probably something north of 85%, we directly manage.

我們自己完成了大部分的開發工作，大概 85% 以上都是我們直接管理。

So the rest of it, we buy is finished lots.

所以我們購買的其餘部分都是成品。

That's an expertise that we have, and certainly something that we think adds value to the overall equation of our offerings.

這是我們的專長，我們認為這無疑能為我們的整體產品增添價值。

In terms of land, Rafe, we're literally buying land every day.

就土地而言，雷夫，我們實際上每天都在購買土地。

We're not buying it in big chunks.

我們不會大量購買。

So I think over the last 12 months, you've probably seen a little more stability in raw land prices, but it varies market to market.

因此，我認為在過去的 12 個月中，您可能會看到原始土地價格略有穩定，但不同市場的情況有所不同。

And then there's been on the horizontal side, you've seen a little bit of wage pressure certainly from the heavy machinery operators and some of those things.

然後從水平方面來看，你會看到來自重型機械操作員和類似人員的一點工資壓力。

And then you've got all the things like asphalt pipe, kind of dirt import.

然後你就得到了所有的東西，像是瀝青管，各種泥土進口。

There's a lot of moving parts and pieces in there.

其中有很多活動的部件和零件。

But I think the easiest way to look at it is just with the guide we've given that on a year-over-year basis, we expect to have about 10% inflation.

但我認為最簡單的觀察方式就是按照我們提供的指導，即按年計算，我們預計通膨率約為 10%。

Most of that, I think is coming from the prices -- the raw land prices that were contracted in years prior when we were in a higher inflationary environment.

我認為，其中大部分原因是價格——前幾年通膨較高時，原始土地價格出現萎縮。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sorry, thanks, Rafe.

抱歉，謝謝，雷夫。

I think we're going to -- in respect of everybody's time, we're going to end the call there.

我想我們會－－為了尊重大家的時間，我們將就此結束通話。

As always, we're available if you have any further questions.

像往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，我們隨時為您服務。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes your conference call for today.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。