普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the PulteGroup Inc third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的支持,歡迎參加 PulteGroup Inc 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jim Zeumer. You may begin.

    謝謝。現在我想把電話轉給 Jim Zeumer。你可以開始了。

  • Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Rob. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call as we look forward to discussing PulteGroup's third quarter operating and financial results. With me today are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Jim Ossowski, Executive Vice President and CFO; and David Carrier, Senior Vice President, Finance. As always, a copy of our earnings release this morning's presentation have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We will also post an audio replay of this call later today.

    謝謝,羅布。早安,感謝您參加今天的電話會議,我們期待討論 PulteGroup 第三季度的營運和財務表現。今天與我一起出席的有總裁兼執行長 Ryan Marshall、執行副總裁兼財務長 Jim Ossowski 和財務高級副總裁 David Carrier。與往常一樣,我們今天早上的收益報告副本已發佈在我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們也將在今天稍晚發布本次電話會議的音訊回放。

  • I would highlight that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments today. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

    我想強調的是,今天的演示包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天評論所暗示的結果有重大差異。今天的收益報告和隨附的簡報中總結了可能影響未來結果的最重要風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中詳細說明,包括我們的年度和季度報告。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Ryan. Ryan?

    現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安。瑞安?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining this morning's call. I look forward to updating you on PulteGroup's strong Q3 financial results and underlying business strategies that have positioned our operations for ongoing success.

    早安,感謝您參加今天上午的電話會議。我期待向您通報 PulteGroup 強勁的第三季財務業績和基本業務策略,這些策略為我們的營運帶來了持續的成功。

  • Specific to the company's third quarter results, our homebuilding operations successfully closed over 7,500 homes, which helped to drive another quarter of overall strong financial results. As Jim will expand on shortly, I am pleased to highlight that PulteGroup generated third quarter home sale revenues of $4.2 billion, operating margins of 16.8% and earnings of $2.96 per share.

    具體到該公司第三季度的業績,我們的房屋建築業務成功關閉了 7,500 多套房屋,這有助於推動整個季度的財務業績強勁。正如 Jim 稍後將詳細說明的那樣,我很高興地強調,PulteGroup 第三季度的房屋銷售收入為 42 億美元,營業利潤率為 16.8%,每股收益為 2.96 美元。

  • And given our focus on returns, I would also highlight that the company has delivered a return on equity of 21% for the trailing 12 months. These results reflect the strength of our diversified operating model, which continues to serve us well in a US housing market where home buying demand has been challenging.

    鑑於我們關注的是回報,我還要強調的是,該公司過去 12 個月的股本回報率為 21%。這些結果反映了我們多元化營運模式的優勢,在購屋需求一直很嚴峻的美國房地產市場中,這種模式持續為我們提供良好的服務。

  • Geographically, our diversified operating platform that spans across 47 major markets remains a key strength. While our broad reach across buyer groups, First Time, Move Up and Active Adult provides unique strategic advantages that are helping us to successfully navigate today's demand dynamics.

    從地理上看,我們覆蓋 47 個主要市場的多元化營運平台仍然是我們的主要優勢。雖然我們涵蓋了廣泛的買家群體,但「首次」、「向上」和「活躍成人」等群體提供了獨特的策略優勢,幫助我們成功應對當今的需求動態。

  • Specifically in today's market, weaker consumer confidence and stretched affordability are limiting opportunities with first-time buyers, while demand has been more resilient within the Active Adult segment, where we, through our Del Webb brand, are a recognized leader. For those of you that have not had the opportunity to visit the Del Webb community, think Disney Cruise ship for those 55 and older.

    具體來說,在當今市場,消費者信心減弱和負擔能力緊張限制了首次購房者的機會,而活躍成人市場的需求則更具彈性,我們透過 Del Webb 品牌成為該領域公認的領導者。對於那些還沒有機會參觀 Del Webb 社區的人來說,可以考慮為 55 歲及以上人士提供迪士尼遊輪服務。

  • At 500 to 1,000 homes, Del Webb communities are larger and offer amenity packages that can include everything from tennis, pickleball, fitness, spa, to social activities, food and dining. But more than anything, Del Webb communities offer personal connections in a place to belong.

    Del Webb 社群規模較大,擁有 500 至 1,000 戶家庭,提供包括網球、匹克球、健身、水療、社交活動、食品和餐飲等一切便利設施。但最重要的是,德爾韋伯社群為人們提供了一個歸屬感十足的人際關係。

  • As we highlighted on previous calls, we are capitalizing on the brand recognition and power of the Del Webb name through our new Del Webb Explorer communities. Our new Del Webb Explorer brand is designed to serve today's Gen X buyers looking for the amazing luxury lifestyle but without the age restriction. We are in the early stages of planning a get to no Del Webb event in 2026, and we will keep you posted on the timing.

    正如我們在先前的電話會議中所強調的那樣,我們正在透過新的 Del Webb Explorer 社群充分利用 Del Webb 品牌的知名度和影響力。我們全新的 Del Webb Explorer 品牌旨在服務當今尋求令人驚嘆的奢華生活方式但不受年齡限制的 X 世代買家。我們正處於 2026 年無 Del Webb 活動規劃的早期階段,我們將隨時向您通報特定時間。

  • Getting back to our results, in the third quarter, traffic to our communities was higher than last year. Although conversion rates fluctuated from week to week, based on feedback from our sales associates, consumers remain engaged in the home buying process, but they are proceeding with caution given concerns, which I think range from economic weakness and job stability to stretch affordability. I think that is why by a response to the decrease in interest rates was more muted than we experienced in other periods of recent rate declines.

    回顧我們的業績,第三季度,我們社區的客流量高於去年。儘管轉換率每週都在波動,但根據我們銷售人員的回饋,消費者仍然參與購屋過程,但考慮到經濟疲軟、工作不穩定以及負擔能力緊張等因素,他們會謹慎行事。我認為這就是為什麼我們對利率下降的反應比我們最近經歷的其他利率下降時期更為溫和的原因。

  • We have always said that interest rates are a positive, lower interest rates are a positive for housing demand, but rates don't operate in a vacuum. There is a clear offset if rates are coming down because the economy is slowing and people are worried about their jobs. I believe that is the scenario we are experiencing right now.

    我們一直說利率是正面的,較低的利率對房屋需求是正面的,但利率並不是在真空中運作的。如果因為經濟放緩和人們擔心就業而導致利率下降,就會產生明顯的抵銷作用。我相信這就是我們現在所經歷的情況。

  • That being said, I would note that our Q3 absorption rate of 2.2 homes per month was consistent with our pre-COVID average, although down from last year's third quarter absorption rate of 2.4. Again, while demand conditions differ by market and buyer segment, we would characterize US housing demand as good, albeit competitive and with some challenges. But one in which our size and scale allow us to compete effectively.

    話雖如此,我想指出的是,我們第三季度每月2.2套住房的吸收率與新冠疫情前的平均水平一致,儘管低​​於去年第三季度2.4套的吸納率。同樣,儘管需求狀況因市場和買家群體而異,但我們認為美國住房需求良好,儘管競爭激烈且面臨一些挑戰。但我們的規模和規模使我們能夠有效競爭。

  • As discussed on prior calls, earlier in the year, we proactively made decisions to better align production levels with sales volumes. In the third quarter, we started 6,557 homes, which effectively equaled our Q3 sales pace. This pace is consistent with our strategy to match starts with sales as we work toward an appropriate level of inventory relative to current market demand. When setting our starts pace, our goal is to have the right level of inventory to meet core demand while avoiding excess finished spec production, thus allowing our sales team to sell through a position of strength.

    正如之前電話會議所討論的那樣,今年早些時候,我們主動做出決策,以便更好地協調生產水平和銷售量。第三季度,我們開工建造了 6,557 套房屋,這實際上與第三季的銷售速度持平。這一速度與我們的策略一致,即讓開工量與銷售額相匹配,我們努力實現與當前市場需求相關的適當庫存水準。在設定起始速度時,我們的目標是擁有適當的庫存水準以滿足核心需求,同時避免成品規格生產過剩,從而使我們的銷售團隊能夠憑藉優勢地位進行銷售。

  • With our average build cycle now down to just 106 days, we can carry less inventory and still be responsive to any demand acceleration in Q4 or as we enter 2026. Along with adjusting our pace of production, earlier in the year, we moderated our planned land spend for 2025 and remain on track to invest approximately $5 billion in land acquisition and development. At over $5 billion, our land spend would be down 5% from last year, but we remain in a strong position with a healthy land pipeline. A pipeline that can enable us to grow the business when home buying demand increases.

    現在,我們的平均建造週期已縮短至僅 106 天,我們可以減少庫存,同時仍能對第四季度或進入 2026 年時的任何需求加速做出回應。除了調整生產速度外,今年早些時候,我們還調整了 2025 年的土地支出計劃,並繼續按計劃投資約 50 億美元用於土地收購和開發。我們的土地支出超過 50 億美元,比去年下降 5%,但我們仍然處於強勢地位,擁有健康的土地儲備。當購屋需求增加時,該通路可以讓我們的業務成長。

  • Let me finish my comments by recognizing and saying thank you to the entire Pulte team. They have truly done an outstanding job navigating 2025's evolving market conditions, while staying focused on delivering outstanding quality and service to our home buyers. You've done an amazing job team.

    最後,請容許我向整個 Pulte 團隊表示感謝。他們在應對 2025 年不斷變化的市場條件方面確實做得非常出色,同時始終專注於為我們的購屋者提供卓越的品質和服務。你們團隊做得非常出色。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Jim for a detailed review of our third quarter results. Jim?

    現在,讓我將電話轉給吉姆,讓他詳細回顧我們的第三季業績。吉姆?

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate the opportunity to review PulteGroup's Q3 financial results.

    謝謝你,瑞安,大家早安。我很高興有機會回顧 PulteGroup 第三季的財務表現。

  • In the third quarter, Pulte's net new orders totaled 6,638 homes to 6% lower than the third quarter of last year. The year-over-year decline in Q3 net new orders reflects a 10% decrease in absorption pace, partially offset by a 5% increase in our average community count to 1,002 communities for the quarter. As a percentage of starting backlog, our cancellation rate for the third quarter was 12%, which is modestly up from 10% last year.

    第三季度,普爾特淨新訂單總計 6,638 套房屋,比去年第三季下降 6%。第三季淨新訂單年減,反映出吸收速度下降了 10%,但本季我們平均社區數量增加 5% 至 1,002 個社區,部分抵銷了這一下降。作為起始積壓訂單的百分比,我們第三季的取消率為 12%,略高於去年的 10%。

  • On a sequential basis, the Q3 cancellation rate was up 60 basis points from the second quarter, which tells us that most home buyers once under contract remain committed to their own purchase. As Ryan noted, our third quarter absorption pace is 2.2 homes per month compared with 2.4 homes per month in Q3 of last year. Higher demand in the quarter reflected a typical seasonal pattern, although core demand in 2025 has been below what we experienced in 2024.

    與上一季相比,第三季的取消率上升了 60 個基點,這表明大多數購房者一旦簽訂了合同,仍然會堅持自己的購買意願。正如瑞安所指出的,我們第三季的吸收速度為每月 2.2 套住房,而去年第三季為每月 2.4 套住房。儘管 2025 年的核心需求低於 2024 年的水平,但本季需求的增加反映了典型的季節性模式。

  • Broken down by buyer group, net new orders among first-time buyers were down 14% from last year, and our Move Up business was down 3%. As has been the case throughout 2025, our Active Adult business remains our strongest buyer group, as net new orders increased 7% over Q3 of last year. In the third quarter, net new orders within our Active Adult business benefited from both an increase in community count and absorption base. Active Adult sales represented 24% of Q3 net new orders. And as we have shared on previous calls, most of these homes will be delivered in 2026.

    按買家群體細分,首次買家的淨新訂單比去年下降了 14%,而我們的 Move Up 業務下降了 3%。正如整個 2025 年的情況一樣,我們的活躍成人業務仍然是我們最強大的買家群體,淨新訂單比去年第三季度增長了 7%。第三季度,我們的活躍成人業務的淨新訂單受益於社區數量和吸收基數的增加。活躍成人銷售額佔第三季淨新訂單的 24%。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所說,這些房屋大部分將於 2026 年交付。

  • Home sale revenues in the third quarter totaled $4.2 billion, which is down 2% from last year's Q3 revenues of $4.3 billion. The decline in home sale revenues reflects a 5% decrease and closing volumes to 7,529 homes, partially offset by a 3% increase in average sales price of $564,000. Closing ASP benefited from the geographic mix of deliveries realized in Q3 of this year.

    第三季房屋銷售收入總計 42 億美元,比去年第三季的 43 億美元下降 2%。房屋銷售收入下降,成交量下降 5% 至 7,529 套,但平均銷售價格上漲 3% 至 564,000 美元,部分抵消了下降。收盤平均銷售價格受惠於今年第三季實現的交付地理分佈。

  • By buyer group, closings in the third quarter were comprised 39% First Time, 39% Move Up and our Active Adult business represented 22%. This is generally in line with our mix in the third quarter of last year when our closings were 40% First Time, 40% Move Up and 20% Active Adult.

    以買家群體劃分,第三季成交量中,首次購屋者佔 39%,升級購屋者佔 39%,活躍成人業務佔 22%。這與我們去年第三季的結構基本一致,當時我們的成交量為 40% 為首次成交,40% 為向上移動,20% 為活躍成年人。

  • Reflective of Q3 orders and closing volume, we ended the third quarter with a backlog of 9,888 homes valued at $6.2 billion. In the third quarter of last year, our backlog was $12,089 homes with a value of $7.7 million. We ended Q3 with 15,096 homes in production, of which 7,369 or 49% were spec homes.

    根據第三季的訂單和成交量,我們在第三季結束時積壓了 9,888 套房屋,價值 62 億美元。去年第三季度,我們的積壓房屋價值 12,089 美元,價值 770 萬美元。我們在第三季結束時共建造了 15,096 套房屋,其中 7,369 套(49%)為樣品屋。

  • In absolute numbers, our quarter end inventory of spec homes was down 1% from the third quarter of last year and down 16% for almost 1,400 houses from the start of this year. Our field teams have done an excellent job managing starts as they work to balance inventory levels with consumer demand.

    從絕對數字來看,我們季度末的樣品屋庫存比去年第三季下降了 1%,比今年年初下降了 16%,減少了近 1,400 套房屋。我們的現場團隊在管理開工方面做得非常出色,他們努力平衡庫存水準和消費者需求。

  • Given current sales trends, and specifically the number of built-to-order contracts we are executing, [specular] likelihood remain closer to 50% of production for the next several quarters, which is higher than our targeted range of 40% to 45%. Since spec homes continue to make up a large percentage of overall sales, we are comfortable with our strategy for managing our spec position.

    鑑於目前的銷售趨勢,特別是我們正在執行的按訂單生產合約的數量,未來幾季的產量仍可能接近 50%,高於我們 40% 至 45% 的目標範圍。由於樣品屋在整體銷售中仍然佔據很大比例,我們對管理樣品屋地位的策略感到滿意。

  • Based on sales activity and a number of homes in our production pipeline, we expect to close between 7,200 to 7,600 homes in the fourth quarter. Given this guide for expected Q4 closing, the math tells you that we could exceed our previous guidance, this full year closings likely end up in the range of 29,000 to 29,400 homes.

    根據銷售活動和我們正在生產的房屋數量,我們預計第四季將售出 7,200 至 7,600 套房屋。根據第四季度預期成交量的指南,計算結果表明,我們可能會超越先前的預期,今年全年成交量可能在 29,000 至 29,400 套之間。

  • We still have homes to sell close to achieve these numbers who are focused on converting spec inventory into closing and finishing the year strong. Given our backlog, production pipeline and recent order trends, we are still guiding to our average sales price of closings to be in the range of $560,000 to $570,000 in the fourth quarter and the full year of 2025.

    為了實現這些數字,我們仍有房屋需要出售,我們專注於將規格庫存轉化為成交量,並強勢結束這一年。考慮到我們的積壓訂單、生產通路和近期訂單趨勢,我們仍預期第四季和 2025 年全年的平均成交價將在 56 萬美元至 57 萬美元之間。

  • Looking at our land pipeline. We continue to expect our community count for the fourth quarter to be 3% to 5% higher than the comparable prior year period. In line with our previous guidance, we reported a third quarter gross margin of 26.2%, which on a sequential basis is down 80 basis points from Q2.

    看看我們的陸地管道。我們繼續預計第四季度的社區數量將比去年同期高出 3% 至 5%。與我們先前的預期一致,我們報告第三季毛利率為 26.2%,季減 80 個基點。

  • Pulte's third quarter gross margin is inclusive of higher incentives incurred during the period resulting from demand conditions and local competitive dynamics. Incentives in the third quarter were 8.9% of gross sales price, which compares with 7.0% last year and 8.7% in the second quarter of this year. While incentives move slightly higher, team is doing an excellent job controlling build costs, which at $79 per square foot were consistent with the prior year and with the second quarter of 2025.

    Pulte 第三季的毛利率包括了由於需求狀況和當地競爭動態而產生的更高激勵。第三季的激勵措施佔總銷售價格的 8.9%,而去年為 7.0%,今年第二季為 8.7%。雖然激勵措施略有提高,但團隊在控制建築成本方面做得非常出色,建築成本為每平方英尺 79 美元,與前一年和 2025 年第二季持平。

  • Let me just add a quick update here to our prior comments regarding the impact of tariffs. At this time, we estimate that tariffs will effectively have little to no impact on our closings in Q4 of 2025, but they could increase build costs by roughly $1,500 per home starting in 2026. We will provide a more definitive estimate on tariffs when we report our fourth quarter earnings in January.

    讓我在這裡對我們之前關於關稅影響的評論做一個簡短的更新。目前,我們估計關稅實際上對我們 2025 年第四季的成交量幾乎沒有影響,但從 2026 年開始,關稅可能會導致每套房屋的建造成本增加約 1,500 美元。當我們在一月份報告第四季度收益時,我們將對關稅提供更明確的估計。

  • Factoring in current demand conditions, the generally competitive local market dynamics and our goal of reducing excess finished spec inventory, we now expect fourth quarter gross margins in the range of 25.5% to 26.0%. For the third quarter, SG&A expense was $401 million or 9.4% of wholesale revenue. This is comparable to prior SG&A expense of $407 million and 9.4% of home sale revenues.

    考慮到當前的需求狀況、普遍競爭的當地市場動態以及我們減少過剩成品規格庫存的目標,我們目前預計第四季度毛利率將在 25.5% 至 26.0% 之間。第三季度,銷售、一般及行政費用為 4.01 億美元,佔批發收入的 9.4%。這與之前的 4.07 億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用和房屋銷售收入的 9.4% 相當。

  • In the face of current market dynamics, we remain focused on appropriately controlling our overhead spend and finding opportunities to lower expenses while still delivering fulfill quality and buying experience for which Pulte has known. Given the success of our efforts, we are maintaining our previous guide for full year 2025 SG&A expense to be in the range of 9.5% to 9.7% of wholesale revenues.

    面對當前的市場動態,我們仍然專注於適當控制我們的管理費用並尋找降低費用的機會,同時仍然提供 Pulte 所熟知的滿足品質和購買體驗。鑑於我們努力的成功,我們維持先前的指導,即 2025 年全年銷售、一般及行政費用佔批發收入的 9.5% 至 9.7% 之間。

  • Our financial services operations reported third quarter pretax income of $44 million, which is down from $55 million Q3 of last year. Pretax income for the quarter was impacted by lower closing volumes in our homebuilding operations and a lower capture rate in the period. Our mortgage capture rate in the third quarter was 84% compared to 87% last year.

    我們的金融服務業務報告第三季稅前收入為 4,400 萬美元,低於去年第三季的 5,500 萬美元。本季稅前收入受到房屋建築業務成交量下降和期間捕獲率下降的影響。我們第三季的抵押貸款捕獲率為 84%,而去年同期為 87%。

  • For the third quarter, PulteGroup's reported pretax income was $768 million. In the period, our tax expense was $182 million or an effective tax rate of 23.7%. Our effective tax rate in Q3 benefited from the purchase of renewable energy tax credits. For the fourth quarter, we expect our tax rate to be approximately 24.5%, assuming no discrete period specific tax events.

    第三季度,PulteGroup 報告的稅前收入為 7.68 億美元。在此期間,我們的稅費為 1.82 億美元,有效稅率為 23.7%。我們第三季的有效稅率受益於購買再生能源稅收抵免。對於第四季度,我們預計稅率約為 24.5%,假設沒有特定期間的稅收事件。

  • We reported third quarter net income of $568 million or $2.96 per share. In the third quarter of last year, company reported net income of $698 million or $3.35 per share. PulteGroup's third quarter earnings per share was calculated based on 198 million diluted shares outstanding. Our share count is down 5% from the prior year as we continue to execute our stock repurchase program.

    我們報告第三季淨收入為 5.68 億美元,即每股 2.96 美元。去年第三季度,該公司淨收入為 6.98 億美元,即每股 3.35 美元。PulteGroup 第三季每股盈餘是根據 1.98 億股稀釋流通股計算得出的。由於我們繼續執行股票回購計劃,我們的股票數量比前一年下降了 5%。

  • In this year's third quarter, we repurchased 2.4 million common shares for $300 million. Through the first nine months of 2025, the company repurchased 8.2 million common shares for a total of $900 million or an average price of $109.81 per share. At quarter end, we have $1.3 billion remaining under our existing share repurchase authorization.

    今年第三季度,我們以3億美元回購了240萬股普通股。截至 2025 年前九個月,該公司回購了 820 萬股普通股,總額達 9 億美元,平均價格為每股 109.81 美元。截至本季末,我們現有的股票回購授權餘額為 13 億美元。

  • Consistent with our stated capital allocation priorities, we invested $1.3 billion in land acquisition (inaudible) in the third quarter with 54% deployed towards the development of our existing land [asset] Year to date, we have invested $3.8 billion in land acquisition and development as we work to maintain a reliable pipeline of near and long-term billable bonds.

    與我們所述的資本配置優先事項一致,我們在第三季投資了 13 億美元用於土地收購(聽不清楚),其中 54% 用於開發我們現有的土地 [資產]。年初至今,我們已投資 38 億美元用於土地收購和開發,致力於維持可靠的短期和長期可計費債券管道。

  • We ended the third quarter with approximately 240,000 lots under control. On a sequential basis, down 9,000 lots in the second quarter as we elected to walk away from certain option deals that were years out and early in the impediment process. These actions are consistent with our disciplined land underwriting practices and capital allocation process. Our ability to proactively manage our land pipeline demonstrates the importance of our differentiated approach to rolling critical land assets.

    截至第三季末,我們控制了約 24 萬手股票。環比下降,第二季度減少了 9,000 手,因為我們選擇放棄某些多年後且處於障礙過程早期的期權交易。這些行動符合我們嚴格的土地承保實務和資本配置流程。我們主動管理土地儲備的能力表明了我們採用差異化方法滾動關鍵土地資產的重要性。

  • As we have highlighted in the past, over 80% of Pulte's land options with the underlying land seller, the remainder structure was one-off transactions with a select and [real plan base] We remain disciplined in executing our option strategy and focus on enhancing project returns and mitigating market rent. Based on our operating results in the first two quarters of 2025 and adjustments we have made to this year's production and planned land spend, we still expect cash flow generation for the full year to be approximately $1.4 million.

    正如我們過去所強調的那樣,Pulte 80% 以上的土地期權都與基礎土地賣方有關,其餘結構是一次性交易,具有選擇性和[實際計劃基礎]我們在執行期權策略時仍然嚴格遵守紀律,並專注於提高項目回報和降低市場租金。根據我們 2025 年前兩季的營運業績以及今年產量和計畫土地支出所做的調整,我們仍預計全年現金流約為 140 萬美元。

  • Let me close with a few comments about our balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with $1.5 billion of cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of 11.2%. Adjusting for the cash balance, our net debt-to-capital ratio at quarter end was 1.1%.

    最後,請允許我對我們的資產負債表發表幾點評論。截至第三季末,我們的現金餘額為 15 億美元,負債資本比率為 11.2%。調整現金餘額後,我們季度末的淨負債資本比率為 1.1%。

  • Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

    現在,讓我把電話轉回給瑞安,請他發表一些最後的評論。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Jim. Before opening the call to questions, I wanted to provide some additional color as to the market conditions we are experiencing. Generally, buyer demand in the third quarter reflected a typical seasonal pattern, although buyer demand at the local market level also reflected new and existing home inventories, which in a number of markets remain elevated. Seasonal demand trends remain on track through the first few weeks of October with traffic and buyer interest generally comparable to what we experienced in Q3.

    謝謝,吉姆。在開始提問之前,我想先對我們正在經歷的市場狀況提供一些額外的資訊。總體而言,第三季的買家需求反映了典型的季節性模式,儘管當地市場層面的買家需求也反映了新房屋和現有房屋庫存,在許多市場中庫存仍然很高。十月前幾週,季節性需求趨勢保持正常,客流量和買家興趣與第三季的情況大致相當。

  • From a sales standpoint, we are now in the seasonally slowest part of the year, but we remain optimistic that lower rates in combination with the strong economy and higher confidence can ultimately work to energize new and just as importantly, existing home sales. For all those reasons, we focus on the new home market, but demand within existing home market remains soft, resulting in elevated levels of inventory. The extent to lower rates can revitalize existing wholesales, it will be a positive for US housing.

    從銷售角度來看,我們目前正處於一年中季節性最慢的時期,但我們仍然樂觀地認為,較低的利率加上強勁的經濟和更高的信心最終可以刺激新房銷售,同樣重要的是,可以刺激現有房屋的銷售。由於所有這些原因,我們專注於新房市場,但現有房屋市場的需求仍然疲軟,導致庫存水準上升。降低利率可以在一定程度上振興現有的批發業務,這對美國住房市場來說是一個利好。

  • Specific to PulteGroup's third quarter results, we experienced better home buying demand in parts of the Midwest, Northeast in the Southeast in markets ranging from Cleveland, Charlotte and the coastal Carolinas and Tennessee and DC, Northern Virginia. I'm also extremely pleased to get to call out the relative strength of our Florida operations as our teams there continue to execute at a very high level.

    具體到 PulteGroup 第三季的業績,我們發現中西部、東北部和東南部部分地區的購屋需求有所好轉,這些地區的市場包括克利夫蘭、夏洛特、沿海卡羅來納州、田納西州、華盛頓特區和北維吉尼亞州。我也非常高興能夠讚揚我們在佛羅裡達州的業務的相對實力,因為我們在那裡的團隊繼續以非常高的水平執行。

  • As you can see in this morning's press release, third quarter net new orders for the state of Florida increased by 2% over the prior year. Market conditions are competitive. Our local teams are led by experienced operators who have assembled exceptional land pipelines over the years.

    正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的,佛羅裡達州第三季淨新訂單比上年增長了 2%。市場條件競爭激烈。我們的本地團隊由經驗豐富的營運商領導,他們多年來已經組建了卓越的陸地管道。

  • As has been the case for much of the year, consumer demand in our Texas and Western markets remained soft in the third quarter. You have heard me say before that we can't be margin proud. So when operating in more difficult market conditions, our local teams understand the importance of finding the market and turning assets while not giving away price needlessly. That is the approach we continue to take as we compete for sales and work to sell through finished inventory.

    與今年大部分時間的情況一樣,第三季德州和西部市場的消費需求仍然疲軟。您以前聽我說過,我們不能驕傲於利潤。因此,在更困難的市場條件下運作時,我們的本地團隊明白找到市場和轉換資產的重要性,同時不會不必要地洩漏價格。這是我們在競爭銷售並努力透過成品庫存銷售時繼續採取的方法。

  • I think it's fair to say that home buying demand in 2025 has been more challenging than the industry was an anticipating. And while it has been more challenging, I think PulteGroup's year-to-date results continue to demonstrate the importance of our diversified and balanced approach to the business. With a platform that extends across multiple markets and buyer groups and a business model that allows for greater operating flexibility, we continue to deliver strong cash flows and high returns.

    我認為可以公平地說,2025 年的購屋需求比業界預期的更具挑戰性。儘管挑戰更大,但我認為 PulteGroup 今年迄今的表現繼續證明了我們多元化和均衡的業務方法的重要性。憑藉覆蓋多個市場和買家群體的平台以及允許更大營運靈活性的商業模式,我們繼續提供強勁的現金流和高回報。

  • Before wrapping up, I think it's appropriate to offer some thoughts about comments issued recently by President Trump regarding the need for more housing and better affordability. We agree with the President's perspective as it is consistent with industry estimates that routinely reference and underbuild in this country of 3 million to 4 million houses.

    在結束之前,我認為有必要對川普總統最近發表的有關需要更多住房和提高住房負擔能力的評論發表一些看法。我們同意總統的觀點,因為它與行業估計一致,即該國通常參考和低估的 300 萬至 400 萬套房屋。

  • While the supply deficit certainly has an impact on affordability generally, the complexities of the new home construction industry dictate that tackling a problem of this scale requires a coordinated and comprehensive approach that brings together federal, state and local leaders working in partnership with the new home construction industry.

    雖然供應短缺肯定會對整體負擔能力產生影響,但新房屋建築業的複雜性決定了解決這種規模的問題需要採取協調一致、全面的方法,讓聯邦、州和地方領導人與新房屋建築業合作。

  • We share the President's focus on housing in wanting to make the American dream more attainable for everyone. We look forward to helping address the issue of housing in America and working with the administration in developing actionable solutions that are consistent with Pulte's long-term strategic plans.

    我們與總統一樣關注住房議題,希望讓每個人都能更容易實現美國夢。我們期待協助解決美國的住房問題,並與政府合作制定符合普爾特長期戰略計畫的可行解決方案。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Jim Zeumer.

    現在,讓我把電話轉給 Jim Zeumer。

  • Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Ryan. We are prepared to open the call for questions. So we can get to as many questions as possible during the remaining time of this call. (Event Instructions). Thank you. And I'll ask Rob to explain the process and open the call for questions.

    偉大的。謝謝,瑞安。我們已準備好開始接受提問。這樣我們就能在本次通話的剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題。(活動說明)。謝謝。我會請羅布解釋這個過程並開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊(Matthew Bouley)。

  • Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. I'd love to pick up on, of course, that last comment there, Ryan. So maybe if you can kind of delve into a little bit your dialogue with either the FHFA and the administration today kind of, from your perspective, what's sort of the right path forward here for Pulte in the homebuilding industry? And I'm curious if you can expand on that last comment around what may be some of those actionable solutions could potentially be? Thank you.

    大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。當然,我很想繼續談最後一則評論,瑞安。因此,如果您可以深入探討一下您今天與聯邦住房金融局和政府的對話,從您的角度來看,普爾特在住宅建築行業的正確前進道路是什麼?我很好奇您是否可以就最後一則評論展開闡述哪些可行的解決方案可能是什麼?謝謝。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So Matt, in fairness, we're not going to have this call be dominated by some of the comments in recent past. There's too many positive things happening inside of our business, and we're too excited about the future strategic direction that we're going.

    是的。所以,馬特,公平地說,我們不會讓這通電話被最近的一些評論所主導。我們的業務內部發生了太多正面的事情,我們對未來的策略方向感到非常興奮。

  • The prepared remarks that I just shared, I think our fully comprehensive of how we fill on the topic. We have had communication with the administration, and we certainly think it is a complicated issue that is largely rooted in local politics and anti growth mentalities and it's going to be complicated to unravel and it's going to take a coordinated effort. So hopefully, that helps, but it's going to -- it's taken us a long time to get into the situation that we're in as a country to create this structural housing shortage. It's going to take time to unwind it as well.

    我認為我剛才分享的準備好的發言已經全面地闡述了我們對這個主題的看法。我們已經與政府進行了溝通,我們確實認為這是一個複雜的問題,很大程度上源於地方政治和反成長心態,解決起來會很複雜,需要協調一致的努力。所以希望這會有所幫助,但是——我們國家花了很長時間才陷入這種結構性住房短缺的境地。解除它也需要時間。

  • Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. No, fair enough. I really appreciate those thoughts. Maybe secondly, kind of delving into your own strategy. I think I heard you mention at the top that you're planning to run spec production closer to 50% now. You've been saying for a while, you were trying to get it back down to 40% to 45%.

    好的。不,很公平。我真的很感激這些想法。其次,也許要深入研究自己的策略。我想我聽到您在開頭提到過,您現在計劃將規格生產率提高到接近 50%。您一直說,您試圖將其降至 40% 到 45%。

  • So I mean, is this more of kind of a market-driven approach, just simply saying, look, this is where the demand is better today for quicker move-in homes? Or kind of any other subtle shifts around your intention going forward from a volume and production perspective? Thank you.

    所以我的意思是,這是否更像是一種市場驅動的方法,只是簡單地說,看,這就是今天對更快入住的房屋的需求更好的地方?或者從產量和生產角度來看,您未來的意圖還有其他微妙的轉變嗎?謝謝。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Matt, there's probably two concepts here that I'd highlight. Number one, we've been saying consistently for the entire year, we wanted to start to be aligned with sales and we'd ideally like our overall spec production to be -- our spec inventory to be 40% to 45%. That hasn't changed. Because of the challenging sales environment that we've been in, we've sold fewer to-be-built homes than we would have anticipated. And so just the way the math works out of what our overall backlog looks like. The map has yielded a slightly higher percentage of specs despite actually lowering the number of specs that we have in production.

    是的,馬特,這裡我可能要強調兩個概念。首先,我們全年都在說,我們希望開始與銷售保持一致,理想情況下,我們希望我們的整體規格產量——我們的規格庫存達到 40% 到 45%。這一點沒有改變。由於我們所處的銷售環境充滿挑戰,我們銷售的待建房屋數量比我們預期的要少。這就是透過數學計算得出的我們的總體積壓情況。儘管實際上降低了我們生產中的規格數量,但該地圖產生的規格百分比略有提高。

  • So the headline percentage is higher. We're not worrying too much about that. We're more focused on what are the actual number of specs that we have that we're comfortable with. And then what we really -- what we're really focused on is more dirt to-be-built sales, which is fully aligned with how we've historically operated the company, and in due time, I think that percentage will come very much in line with where we ultimately want to be.

    因此標題百分比較高。我們對此並不太擔心。我們更關注的是,我們能夠接受的實際規格數量是多少。然後,我們真正關注的是更多待建土地的銷售,這與我們歷史上經營公司的方式完全一致,並且在適當的時候,我認為該百分比將與我們最終想要達到的目標非常一致。

  • Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

    Matthew Bouley - Equity Analyst

  • Well, got it. Thanks, Ryan. Good luck, guys.

    嗯,明白了。謝謝,瑞安。祝你們好運,夥計們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Lovallo, UBS.

    瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

  • John Lovallo - Analyst

    John Lovallo - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions as well. The first one kind of dovetails off of Ryan's comments towards the end there about Florida and the Southeast, in particular, I mean Florida orders were up about 2.4%. Southeast was up 1%. I mean our checks seem to indicate some stabilization in demand pricing and even inventory in these markets. Just curious for your comments on those factors. Are you seeing something similar?

    大家早安。也感謝您回答我的問題。第一個與 Ryan 最後關於佛羅裡達和東南部的評論相吻合,特別是佛羅裡達的訂單增加了約 2.4%。東南地區上漲了 1%。我的意思是,我們的檢查似乎顯示這些市場的需求、價格甚至庫存都趨於穩定。只是好奇您對這些因素的評論。您看到類似的東西了嗎?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. We are, John. There are markets that we've been bullish on even if you went back two or three quarters ago, and there was a lot of concern in the Florida, we were pretty consistent in saying, Florida is a good market for us. We've got great locations. We're not worried. And I think the results that we demonstrated over the last two quarters that have -- so we're now two quarters in a row of showing positive comps in the Florida business. And I think it is indicative one of the outstanding locations that we have that buyers want to live in those communities.

    是的。是的,約翰。即使回顧兩三個季度前的情況,我們仍然對一些市場持樂觀態度,儘管當時人們對佛羅裡達州有很多擔憂,但我們始終一致認為,佛羅裡達州對我們來說是一個很好的市場。我們擁有優越的地理位置。我們並不擔心。我認為我們在過去兩個季度中所展示的業績已經——所以我們現在已經連續兩個季度在佛羅裡達州業務中顯示出積極的成長。我認為這表明我們擁有優越的地理位置,買家希望居住在這些社區。

  • And then two, I think there is some good stabilization in Florida. You mentioned the Southeast as well. I think the same holds true. So these -- the Southeast and Florida are still places people want to move to. The weather is certainly desirable. From a business standpoint, the locations are generally pro-growth. They've got good tax policies. And I think those are things that are very accommodative to having a healthy housing operation.

    其次,我認為佛羅裡達州的情況已經趨於穩定。您也提到了東南部。我認為也是如此。因此,東南部和佛羅裡達州仍然是人們想要遷移的地方。天氣確實令人嚮往。從商業角度來看,這些地點一般都有利於成長。他們有良好的稅收政策。我認為這些對於健康的住房運作非常有利。

  • John Lovallo - Analyst

    John Lovallo - Analyst

  • Okay. That's encouraging. And then the $79 per square foot in stick and brick being consistent. I think that, that's encouraging. We've heard on the land side that not only are builders able to get a little bit of a break on the development side, but actually able to go back and renegotiate price and take down schedules? Are you seeing anything along those lines as well that might be helpful as we move into next year?

    好的。這令人鼓舞。然後木條和磚塊的價格為每平方英尺 79 美元,保持一致。我認為這是令人鼓舞的。我們聽說,在土地方面,建築商不僅可以在開發方面獲得一點喘息,而且實際上還可以回去重新協商價格並取消進度計劃?您是否也看到了類似的訊息,這些訊息可能會對我們進入明年有所幫助?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We are, John. We're definitely seeing some favorable terms, particularly on earth moving and some of the underground work, things that involve heavy machinery, we're seeing more favorable terms than what we've experienced over the last few years. And those input costs to go into our future lot cost, I think that will certainly be beneficial in helping to reduce the amount of land inflation that we've been seeing.

    是的,約翰。我們確實看到了一些有利的條件,特別是在土方工程和一些地下工程以及涉及重型機械的工程方面,我們看到的條件比過去幾年經歷的更為有利。這些投入成本將計入我們未來的地塊成本,我認為這肯定有助於減少我們所看到的土地通膨。

  • John Lovallo - Analyst

    John Lovallo - Analyst

  • Okay, helpful. Thank you.

    好的,有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Wanted to shift the focus or from a question standpoint, around the mix. And I know, Ryan, in your earlier comments, you kind of highlighted the Active Adult business, which is obviously a real distinction in terms of what Pulte is able to offer versus the competition.

    謝謝。大家早安。也感謝您回答我的問題。想要轉移焦點或從問題的角度來討論混合。我知道,瑞安,在您之前的評論中,您強調了活躍成人業務,這顯然是 Pulte 與競爭對手相比能夠提供的真正區別。

  • If you look at the other two segments over -- in the back of your slide deck over the last five years, four, five years, you've had the Move Up business kind of shrink from 45% to 38%. And the First Time go from 31% to 40%. So I'm curious, as you look at '26, '27, and obviously, talking about higher margins for the Move Up business as well as Active Adult, how should we think about that mix over the next couple of years, particularly as your build times continue to come in line and that was a big issue, I think, in offering spec and maybe shifting a little bit towards a ready-built model.

    如果你看一下幻燈片後面的另外兩個部分——過去五年,四年,五年來,Move Up 業務的份額從 45% 縮水到了 38%。首次從 31% 上升至 40%。所以我很好奇,當你回顧 26 年、27 年,顯然,談論的是 Move Up 業務和 Active Adult 的更高利潤率時,我們應該如何看待未來幾年的這種組合,特別是當你的構建時間繼續保持一致時,我認為這在提供規格和可能稍微轉向現成模型方面是一個大問題。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So Mike, we've worked really hard to kind of position our land pipeline towards what we view as an optimal mix of business that's indexed against what the overall opportunity is starting with the first-time entry-level buyer group. We see that business in the kind of 38% to 40% range overall. So pretty consistent with where we're operating today, and I think that is indexed against the overall buying opportunity or buyer profile in the United States.

    是的。所以麥克,我們非常努力地將我們的土地管道定位到我們認為的最佳業務組合,該組合與首次進入級買家群體的整體機會掛鉤。我們發現該業務整體成長率在 38% 至 40% 之間。與我們目前的營運情況非常一致,我認為這與美國的整體購買機會或買家概況有關。

  • The Move Up business, we have intentionally brought down into that same range of about 35% to 38% ideally. And then the balance is our Active Adult business at 25%. So we're -- with our current sales rate, which Jim shared was basically we were 40%, 38%, 22% in the quarter. We're almost like perfectly indexed to where we want to be. The change that you'll see continue to play out over the next few quarters will be the Active Adult business going up to that ideal 25%.

    對於 Move Up 業務,我們有意將其降至理想情況下的 35% 至 38% 左右的同一範圍內。剩餘部分是我們的活躍成人業務,佔 25%。因此,我們目前的銷售率,Jim 透露,本季的銷售率基本上分別為 40%、38% 和 22%。我們幾乎完美地定位到了我們想要去的地方。在接下來的幾個季度中,您將看到的變化是活躍成人業務將上升到理想的 25%。

  • So we like the way the business is positioned. Certainly, the first-time entry-level buyer group is one that's been more challenged in this current environment. That won't last forever. And we certainly think as the housing demand starts to return. That's a buyer group that we're going to be well positioned to serve.

    所以我們喜歡該業務的定位方式。當然,在當前環境下,首次進入市場的買家群體面臨的挑戰更大。這不會永遠持續下去。我們當然認為住房需求會開始回升。我們將竭誠為這個買家群體提供服務。

  • I would remind everyone that our first-time entry-level communities do tend to play on the higher end of the price range of first-time entry level. They're typically closer in slightly better located. And so while it is a first-time entry-level buyer, it's not the lowest price segment of that particular consumer group.

    我想提醒大家的是,我們的首次入門級社群確實傾向於在首次入門價格範圍的高端發揮作用。它們通常距離較近,位置也稍好一些。因此,雖然它針對的是首次入門級買家,但它並不是該特定消費群體的最低價格部分。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate that, and that's an important reminder on the First Time business. I guess, secondly, I know it's a little premature to give formal '26 guidance. But I think one of the questions we've gotten and maybe not just for Pulte, but more broadly for the Group is right now, you're trending backlog volumes down as of the end of this quarter, 18%. I would assume that by the end of the next quarter, it might be in a similar type of ZIP code.

    偉大的。我很感激這一點,這對「首次創業」來說是一個重要的提醒。我想,其次,我知道現在給出正式的 26 條指導還為時過早。但我認為我們遇到的一個問題(可能不僅適用於 Pulte,更廣泛地說適用於整個集團)是,截至本季度末,您的積壓訂單量呈下降趨勢,下降了 18%。我認為到下個季度末,它可能會出現類似的郵政編碼。

  • I think a lot of people are kind of struggling with volume growth, the prospects for volume growth next year, even if community count is up [0, 5] or mid-single digits, which I know is probably your ongoing goal. Maybe you could kind of walk through how you get the volume growth for next year and again, not asking for formal guidance, but either your directional level of confidence or what investors might be missing?

    我認為很多人都在為數量增長而苦苦掙扎,明年數量增長的前景,即使社區數量增加了 [0, 5] 或中等個位數,我知道這可能是你們持續的目標。也許您可以稍微介紹一下如何實現明年的銷售成長,並且再次強調,不是要求正式的指導,而是您的方向性信心水平或投資者可能忽略的內容?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. You know, Mike, we'll look forward to giving kind of full 2026 guidance at the end of our next quarter as we wrap up the full year. So stay tuned for that. That said, we've got an amazing land pipeline that we work incredibly hard to build over the last three or four years that is very much in line and prepped for us to continue to grow our business. We certainly need the consumer and the market to cooperate with that. And what you've heard from us is we're going to continue to be balanced in our start rate to make sure that, that's responsive and reflective for the actual demand that we're seeing.

    是的。你知道,麥克,我們期待在下個季度末,也就是全年結束時,給予完整的 2026 年指引。請繼續關注。話雖如此,我們擁有一條令人驚嘆的土地儲備管道,這是我們在過去三四年裡付出極大努力打造的,它完全符合我們的預期,為我們繼續發展業務做好了準備。我們當然需要消費者和市場的配合。您從我們這裡聽到的是,我們將繼續保持啟動率的平衡,以確保能夠回應並反映我們所看到的實際需求。

  • Some of those things we can't control. All that said, we are seeing some things out there that I think if they shape up with rates that come down a little bit, consumer confidence improves a little bit. We know that there is a desire for homeownership and we certainly think that we're well positioned to capitalize on that. The other piece that I think sets us up for success next year is our build time.

    有些事情我們無法控制。儘管如此,我們看到了一些情況,我認為,如果利率稍微下降,消費者信心就會有所改善。我們知道人們有擁有住房的願望,我們當然認為我們有能力利用這一點。我認為為我們明年的成功奠定基礎的另一個因素是我們的建造時間。

  • We're down to 106 days. And then some of our entry-level starter communities, it's even faster than that. So we've really got some time before we need to make the decision on ramping our production levels to deal with the prospect of growing our business in 2026 over what we've done in 2025. So we remain pretty positive and optimistic, Mike, about kind of where the business is at and more importantly, what the opportunity is. And stay tuned for kind of our full 2026 guide at the end of next quarter.

    剩下 106 天了。然後我們的一些入門級啟動社區,甚至比這更快。因此,在我們需要決定是否提高生產水準以應對 2026 年業務在 2025 年基礎上成長的前景之前,我們確實還有一些時間。因此,麥克,我們對業務現狀以及更重要的是機會保持非常積極和樂觀的態度。請關注我們下個季度末的完整 2026 年指南。

  • Michael Rehaut - Analyst

    Michael Rehaut - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alan Ratner, Zelman.

    艾倫拉特納、澤爾曼。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • Hey, guys, good morning. Nice quarter. Thanks for all the details so far. First question, Ryan, I'd love to get some of your thoughts on kind of where the consumer sits today. You had a comment in the prepared remarks saying in a vacuum, lower interest rates are always good for housing. But maybe right now, people are perhaps incrementally worried about either their job or the direction of the economy.

    嘿,大家早安。不錯的季度。感謝您提供迄今為止的所有詳細資訊。第一個問題,瑞安,我很想聽聽你對當今消費者狀況的看法。您在準備好的發言中曾表示,在真空中,較低的利率總是對住房有利。但也許現在,人們可能越來越擔心自己的工作或經濟走向。

  • And I'm just curious whether over the last 60 or 90 days, have you actually seen however you can think about this or quantify it, have you actually seen the consumer looking and feeling more stretched that's coming into your communities? Are you having a harder time getting buyers qualified? Are you hearing more concerns about the direction of the economy? Any color you can give would be great.

    我只是好奇,在過去的 60 天或 90 天裡,您是否真的看到了這一點,無論您如何思考或量化它,您是否真的看到進入您社區的消費者看起來和感覺更加緊張?您是否在讓買家獲得資格方面遇到了困難?您是否聽到了更多關於經濟走向的擔憂?任何你能給出的顏色都很好。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Alan, I think the majority of the focus that I would probably share is around consumer confidence. And so the benefit that we've seen when rates have come down has been the overall lift in consumer confidence. The actual financial benefit from rates coming down is still not at the level that we're incentivizing with our forward mortgage commitments.

    是的,艾倫,我認為我可能主要關注的是消費者信心。因此,我們看到利率下降帶來的好處是消費者信心的全面提升。利率下降帶來的實際財務利益仍未達到我們透過遠期抵押貸款承諾所激勵的水平。

  • So the REITs we've been offering and continue to offer are far better than anything that the consumer will get by a change in the interest rate environment coming -- getting better or coming down. So what we're kind of looking toward and for is some improvement in the kind of overall footing and foundation of consumer confidence. There's a lot that goes into that. We're at a dog on near at a 10-year low.

    因此,我們一直提供的和繼續提供的房地產投資信託基金要比消費者透過利率環境的變化(無論是變好還是變壞)所能獲得的任何產品都要好得多。因此,我們所期待的是消費者信心的整體基礎和基礎有所改善。這其中涉及很多內容。我們正處於十年來的最低點。

  • So hopefully, we're kind of bottoming out on that, and we can start to turn that around and go the other direction. You combine that with the opportunity potentially for some further rate cuts this year and into next year, and I think the industry can be in a tremendous position to capitalize on what is that underlying desire for homeownership and housing demand. We know there's a structural shortage of housing. And if we can just get consumers confident about making this major purchase in their life, I think we can see some upside in '26.

    所以希望我們能夠觸底反彈,並開始扭轉局面,朝著另一個方向前進。再加上今年和明年可能進一步降息的機會,我認為該行業可以處於有利地位,充分利用人們對房屋所有權和住房需求的潛在渴望。我們知道存在結構性住房短缺。如果我們能讓消費者對人生中這項重大購買行為充滿信心,我認為我們可以在 26 年看到一些好處。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • Great. I appreciate those comments, Ryan. Second question pivoting back to the government, but not necessarily -- I guess, what everybody has been most focused on. There has been some good news coming out. I mean, I think the Senate recently passed the bill called the Road the Housing Act, which seems like it has a few pieces in there that could be longer-term positive for your business.

    偉大的。我很感謝這些評論,瑞安。第二個問題回到政府,但不一定──我想,這是大家最關心的問題。有一些好消息傳出。我的意思是,我認為參議院最近通過了一項名為《道路住房法案》的法案,其中似乎有一些內容可能對您的企業產生長期積極影響。

  • We've heard a little bit of chatter about the potential for purchases of MBS by some entity. I know Jerome Powell kind of throw some cold water on that. But I'm curious if you're seeing either anything in that bill or any other chatter you're hearing that could actually be near term or intermediate term positives for housing demand in your business?

    我們聽到一些關於某些實體可能購買 MBS 的傳言。我知道傑羅姆·鮑威爾對此潑了些冷水。但我很好奇,您是否認為該法案或您聽到的任何其他言論實際上可能對您企業的住房需求產生短期或中期積極影響?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Alan, what I would highlight, trying to stay neutral on the political spectrum. We're seeing left, right and middle politicians talk about housing. And that's the piece that I think we should all be focused on is this country, we all want to grow the economy. We want to see jobs growing. And we need to strike the balance that has -- we grow jobs. We've got -- when we have new jobs, we need new homes to go with those jobs.

    是的,艾倫,我想強調的是,努力在政治上保持中立。我們看到左翼、右翼和中間派的政客都在談論住房問題。我認為我們都應該關注這個國家,我們都希望發展經濟。我們希望看到就業機會增加。我們需要取得平衡——增加就業機會。當我們有了新的工作時,我們需要新的房子來配合這些工作。

  • And if we can get our political leaders, community in both the federal, state and local level to really focus on saying housing is an essential ingredient to growing the economy. That's where I think it's positive. So whether it's conversations that are having in Senate or in the executive branch or at your local city council if we can put some things in place, and I would really boil it down to a simple formula of the general rule of thumb for every two jobs that are created, we need one home.

    如果我們能夠讓聯邦、州和地方各級的政治領導人、社區真正關注住房是經濟成長的重要因素。我認為這是積極的地方。因此,無論是在參議院、行政部門還是在當地市議會進行的對話,如果我們能夠落實一些措施,我實際上可以將其歸結為一個簡單的公式,即每創造兩個工作崗位,我們就需要一個家。

  • So if we can focus on a mantra of two for one, two jobs, one home and we can work on policies that put that into play. I think over time, we could really see ourselves work out of this structural housing shortage that we've created.

    因此,如果我們能夠專注於「一人二職、兩份工作、一個家」的理念,我們就可以製定政策來實現這一目標。我認為隨著時間的推移,我們確實能夠擺脫我們自己造成的結構性住房短缺。

  • Alan Ratner - Analyst

    Alan Ratner - Analyst

  • I appreciate the thought. Thanks a lot.

    我很欣賞這個想法。多謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Stephen Kim, Evercore.

    史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim),Evercore。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate all the color and yeah, good job in a really tough market. I wanted to talk about the incentives a little bit. I think you brought up forward purchase commitments. But I think you said incentives, if I heard correctly, were 8.9%. I think last year, they were 7.0%. So kind of up about 190 bps and at a pretty high level, obviously.

    是的,非常感謝大家。欣賞所有的色彩,是的,在非常艱難的市場中做得很好。我想稍微談談激勵措施。我認為您提出了提前購買承諾。但如果我沒聽錯的話,我認為您說的激勵是 8.9%。我認為去年的比例是 7.0%。因此,顯然上漲了約 190 個基點,處於相當高的水平。

  • So I'm wondering, first of all, just to get our facts straight, how much of these incentives at this point, would you classify or categorize as financial incentives, like closing costs, rate buy-downs, forward purchase commitments and stuff like that? And are these reflected in ASP or COGS and compare that to like upgraded features and stuff, like nicer countertops and all that kind of stuff? And are they in ASP or in COGS? Just to level set our understanding.

    所以我想知道,首先,只是為了弄清楚事實,目前有多少激勵措施,您會將其歸類為財務激勵,例如成交成本、利率買斷、遠期購買承諾等等?這些是否反映在 ASP 或 COGS 中,並將其與升級的功能和東西(例如更好的檯面和所有這些東西)進行比較?它們屬於 ASP 還是 COGS?只是為了讓我們的理解達到一個層次。

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Stephen, great question. So any of the incentives that we have, whether it's in the form of financing incentives or, say, a discount to your point on some of the options that we might give people off, those are a reduction in your gross sales price to their reduction in your ASP. The financing incentives are probably about a third of the total incentive package that we report each quarter.

    是的,史蒂芬,這個問題問得好。因此,我們所採取的任何激勵措施,無論是融資激勵形式,還是我們可能為人們提供的一些選項的折扣,都會降低您的總銷售價格,從而降低您的平均銷售價格。融資激勵大概占我們每季報告的總激勵方案的三分之一。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. So about a third are financed. So the majority of yours are like upgraded features and stuff like that? It's just to clarify.

    好的。因此,約有三分之一獲得了融資。所以你們的產品大部分都是升級功能之類的呢?這只是為了澄清一下。

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. We want to give you some money off in a design center, maybe you have a finished spec inventory, you gave a little bit of a discount on that. So that's about two-thirds of the mix.

    是的。我們想在設計中心給你一些折扣,也許你有一個完成的規格庫存,你可以給一點折扣。這大約佔混合物的三分之二。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • That's great. That's not a lot. So that's encouraging that not a lot are financial. But if we could do a little bit deeper, so within the financial incentives, how much -- I'm trying to get a sense how much is like forward purchase commitments, specifically versus like regular rate buydowns and closing costs and stuff like that. Maybe like if you could give us a sense for how much have you spent this year on forward purchase commitments or maybe what principal amount has that covered and that sort of thing? Do you have any detail you can share there?

    那太棒了。那並不多。令人鼓舞的是,其中大部分都不是金融方面的。但如果我們可以做得更深入一些,那麼在財務激勵方面,我試圖了解有多少是像遠期購買承諾,特別是與常規利率買斷和成交成本等相比。也許您可以告訴我們您今年在遠期購買承諾上花費了多少錢,或者涵蓋了多少本金之類的?有什麼細節可以分享嗎?

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I mean the forward commitments, I tell you, probably roughly 30% of our consumers actually use that. So it's not a large percentage in total. But I would tell you, financing incentives have been around forever. If you go back, either pre-COVID times, those have always been there and probably 80% of our customers have had some sort of financing incentives.

    是的。我的意思是,我告訴你,大約有 30% 的消費者實際上使用了遠期承諾。所以整體而言,這個比例並不大。但我要告訴你,融資激勵措施一直存在。如果你回顧一下,無論是在疫情之前,這些都一直存在,而且我們大概 80% 的客戶都獲得了某種形式的融資激勵。

  • So I'd say it's probably maybe half of it is some of the forward commitment. But again, we're always looking for things that we can go ahead and help consumers as they're looking to kind of find the right financial payment that they need every month or closing costs to get them over the finish line.

    所以我想說,其中可能有一半是前瞻性的承諾。但是,我們始終在尋找可以繼續前進並幫助消費者的事情,因為他們正在尋找每月所需的正確的財務支付或結算成本,以幫助他們完成最後階段。

  • Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

    Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst

  • Excellent. Really appreciate it. Thanks so much, guys. Good luck.

    出色的。真的很感激。非常感謝大家。祝你好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Pettinari, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的安東尼佩蒂納裡。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Good morning. I was wondering if you could drill down a little in terms of the bridge between the current 4Q gross margin guide, 25.5% to 26% versus the prior I guess, 26%, 26.5%. And I guess, specifically, kind of how to think about the impact of lower mortgage rates, maybe making those buy-downs cheaper for you versus maybe any kind of other offsets you'd like?

    早安.我想知道您是否可以深入了解當前第四季毛利率指南(25.5% 至 26%)與之前的 26%、26.5% 之間的差距。我想,具體來說,如何看待較低抵押貸款利率的影響,也許可以讓您的回購成本更低,而不是您想要的任何其他抵銷措施?

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. Great question. So I can tell you the forward commitments or mortgage buydowns, really, it's not that impactful. Rates have moved a little bit, but it's really not there. It's really as we step back and we created the guide for the fourth quarter, there's a lot of moving parts and pieces in there. We look at the backlog we have, we look at incentives that we have on the sales for today.

    是的。好問題。因此我可以告訴你,遠期承諾或抵押貸款買斷實際上並沒有那麼大的影響。利率略有變動,但實際上並沒有改變。當我們回顧並為第四季度製定指南時,會發現其中有很多活動的部分和片段。我們查看了積壓的訂單,並查看了對今天的銷售的激勵措施。

  • Speculative inventory, we talked about that. We have to stay competitive in particular markets. So as we created the guide and we looked at it, it was really a matter of kind of putting all the parts and pieces together. And I'd say moving some of that spec inventory is what drew us to the conclusion to lower our guidance a little bit going into this fourth quarter.

    投機性庫存,我們討論過這個。我們必須在特定市場保持競爭力。因此,當我們創建指南並查看它時,它實際上是將所有部分和片段放在一起的問題。我想說,轉移一些規格庫存促使我們得出結論,在進入第四季度時略微下調我們的預期。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then just one -- maybe one policy question, if I could. Does the shutdown hinder your ability to offer mortgages at all? Or does it impact closings or any other kind of part of the home buying process?

    好的。這非常有幫助。然後我只想問一個——如果可以的話,也許問一個政策問題。政府關門是否會妨礙您提供抵押貸款的能力?或者它會影響交易完成或購房過程的任何其他部分?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • To this point, no. Now there are certain loan programs that we don't use very often that are impacted. But for the shape and size of our business and the types of programs that we use, we've not been impacted to this point.

    到目前為止,還沒有。現在,某些我們不常用的貸款項目受到了影響。但就我們業務的形態和規模以及我們使用的程序類型而言,我們目前尚未受到影響。

  • Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

    Anthony Pettinari - Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

    好的。這很有幫助。我把它翻過來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

  • Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

    Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to follow up on the incentive comments and just talk a little bit more about the trajectory of incentives. Maybe if you can elaborate on the order trends because you talked about kind of normal seasonality on orders, traffic continuing in October. So relative to that 8.9% incentives in the 3Q closings, how did your incentives on orders trend through the quarter? And can you be more specific on what level of incentives is embedded in the 4Q gross margin guide?

    早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想跟進激勵措施的評論,並稍微談談激勵措施的發展軌跡。也許您可以詳細說明訂單趨勢,因為您談到了訂單的正常季節性,十月的流量仍在繼續。那麼相對於第三季收盤價 8.9% 的激勵措施,整個季度您的訂單激勵趨勢如何?您能否更具體地說明第四季毛利率指南中包含哪些等級的激勵措施?

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah. I would tell you that incentives through the three months of the quarter were fairly consistent. As it relates to kind of the guide, I step back as we created the guide, I mean there's on 1,000 homes that we have to kind of book and close within the quarter.

    是的。我想告訴你,本季三個月的激勵措施相當一致。就指南而言,我在創建指南時退了一步,我的意思是,我們必須在本季度內預訂並完成 1,000 套房屋。

  • So when we came up with the guide, we had to make assumptions about where we were going to sell them, when we were going to sell them until those all factored into it. So we haven't gotten that more granular, but we've assumed that as we move some of the spec inventory in the fourth quarter, we feel comfortable with the guide that we presented.

    因此,當我們制定指南時,我們必須對在哪裡銷售它們、何時銷售它們做出假設,直到將所有這些都考慮在內。因此,我們還沒有得到更詳細的信息,但我們假設,隨著我們在第四季度轉移一些規格庫存,我們對所提供的指南感到滿意。

  • Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

    Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. As a follow-up, I guess, this hedges into 2026 comments. But when you think about the 25.5% to 26% and your comments that spec mix is likely to remain at 50% for the next few quarters, just given the dynamics today, should we be thinking about if incentives are stable and spec mix is stable, that's kind of the baseline going into next year? Understanding that you highlighted some of the tariff impacts as well and then there's moving pieces around rates. But any comments you could provide on kind of how to think about beyond 4Q.

    知道了。好的。作為後續行動,我猜,這與 2026 年的評論相抵觸。但是,當您考慮 25.5% 到 26% 的比例,以及您所說的規格組合在未來幾季可能保持在 50% 時,考慮到今天的動態,我們是否應該考慮激勵措施是否穩定,規格組合是否穩定,這是否是進入明年的基準?我理解您也強調了一些關稅影響,也提到了圍繞利率的變動。但是您能否就如何思考 4Q 之後的問題提供一些評論?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Mike, we'll hold on that. Like I shared when Mike Rehaut asked the question. Give us 90 days when we report Q4, we'll have full 2026 guidance for you and kind of break it all down.

    是的,麥克,我們會堅持下去。就像 Mike Rehaut 提出這個問題時我分享的那樣。當我們報告第四季度時給我們 90 天的時間,我們將為您提供完整的 2026 年指導並將其全部分解。

  • Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

    Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks, Ryan.

    謝謝,瑞安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

    Rafe Jadrosich,美國銀行。

  • Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

    Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you for taking my question. First, can you talk about where you are in terms of finished specs per community today and where you want that to be and how you're planning starts going forward?

    偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。首先,您能否談談目前每個社區的完成規格情況、您希望達到的水平以及您計劃如何開始推進?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Rafe, we have right around 2,000 finished back, so it's about 2 per average community. It's almost double where we'd ideally like to be. We generally like to run somewhere around 1 per, slightly more than 1 per, maybe $1.2 million finished specs per community is ideal for us. So like I said, we're a little higher than we'd like to be. Part of that is rolled into the incremental incentive load that Jim has been talking about.

    是的,Rafe,我們已經完成了大約 2,000 項工作,所以平均每個社區大約有 2 項。這幾乎是我們理想目標的兩倍。我們通常喜歡在每個社區運行大約 1 個,略多於 1 個,也許每個社區 120 萬美元的成品規格對我們來說是理想的。所以就像我說的,我們目前的價格比我們想要的要高一點。其中一部分被納入了吉姆一直在談論的增量激勵負荷。

  • We're not exactly worried about the inventory position, but we'd like it to be lower to be optimized. So the rate at which we've been starting homes is perfectly aligned with where we want to be in terms of kind of a sales rate. We'll continue to chip away at the kind of the finished specs and that will be part of -- we think as we move into 2026, we'll get that kind of normalized and we'll start to work our way back into the optimal balance of finished specs, total specs as a percentage of inventory and then really focus on increasing the number of dirt sales or build-to-order sales that we have, which is the ideal place for us to be in terms of how we run our business.

    我們並不完全擔心庫存狀況,但我們希望庫存水準更低,以便進行最佳化。因此,我們開工建造房屋的速度與我們預期的銷售率完全一致。我們將繼續努力提高成品規格,這將是其中的一部分——我們認為,隨著我們進入 2026 年,我們將實現這種正常化,並開始努力恢復成品規格、總規格佔庫存百分比的最佳平衡,然後真正專注於增加我們的批量銷售或按訂單生產的銷售數量,這是我們經營業務的理想狀態。

  • Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

    Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

  • Great. That's helpful. And then when we look at the sort of SG&A guidance for the fourth quarter, it's a pretty wide implied range. Your sales are down year-over-year just because of the base you had from last year. I think like on the low end of the S&A guidance, you have your levering and then at the high end of your deleverage, what sort of gets you to the high end or low end of the range? Were you able to leverage or not leverage? Like what are the puts and takes there?

    偉大的。這很有幫助。然後,當我們查看第四季度的銷售、一般及行政費用指引時,會發現隱含範圍相當廣。由於去年的基礎較差,您的銷售額比去年同期有所下降。我認為,在 S&A 指導的低端,您有槓桿,然後在去槓桿的高端,什麼會讓您達到範圍的高端或低端?您是否能夠利用槓桿?例如那裡有什麼投入和產出?

  • Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

    Jim Ossowski - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

  • You know, as we look at it, I think our Q4 SG&A fairly consistent with where we are in Q3. We've got a wider range as it relates to our closing guide. As we said, we've got a lot of spec inventory that we're looking to move in the quarter. So that probably cognitive, but I would tell you, there isn't anything out of the norm that I would point to with our SG&A in the fourth quarter.

    您知道,當我們看它時,我認為我們第四季度的銷售、一般及行政費用與第三季度的水平相當一致。我們的收尾指南涉及的範圍更廣。正如我們所說,我們有大量規格庫存,希望在本季出售。所以這可能是認知上的,但我要告訴你,我認為第四季的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 並沒有什麼不正常的地方。

  • Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

    Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

  • Sam Reid - Analyst

    Sam Reid - Analyst

  • Thanks, guys. Just following up on an earlier question, what's the lag between lower historic -- or lower horizontal development costs and when that actually hits the P&L? Is it two quarters? Is it three quarters? And not looking necessarily for 2026 guide here. But if you are seeing lower horizontal development costs, could that potentially be a favorable lever for log cost inflation in 2026?

    謝謝大家。延續之前的問題,歷史較低或水平開發成本較低與實際影響損益表之間的時間間隔是多少?是兩個季度嗎?是四分之三嗎?這裡不一定需要尋找 2026 年的指南。但是,如果您看到水平開發成本降低,這是否會成為 2026 年原木成本通膨的有利槓桿?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Land development generally runs 9 to 12 months, depending on the geography and the size of the phase that you're developing. So things we're developing right now in Q3, Q4 will have a favorable impact in the back half '26 potentially. And then kind of fully impacted in 2027.

    土地開發通常需要 9 到 12 個月,具體取決於地理位置和開發階段的規模。因此,我們現在在第三季和第四季開發的東西可能會對 2026 年下半年產生有利影響。然後在 2027 年受到全面影響。

  • Sam Reid - Analyst

    Sam Reid - Analyst

  • That helps. And then switching gears, just wanted to quickly touch on Del Webb/Active Adults. You're still building very large communities. But you're also building, say, smaller communities relative to what you might have historically. I'm looking, I think, around 750 or so units at the midpoint. Does this at all kind of change the margin profile for Del Webb as you rebuild your pipeline of Active Adult orders? Just want to think about margin implications there. Thanks.

    這有幫助。然後換個話題,只想快速談談 Del Webb/Active Adults。您仍在建造非常大的社區。但你也在建立相對於你歷史上所擁有的更小的社區。我認為中間點大約有 750 個單位。當您重建活躍成人訂單管道時,這是否會改變 Del Webb 的利潤狀況?只是想考慮一下那裡的利潤影響。謝謝。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sam, we've been building communities of that size now for about a decade. So that is what our Del Webb business has been. We have a few -- less than five legacy communities that are of the older vintage, very large 2,000 and 3,000 unit-plus Del Webb communities. But there's not really anything in our Del Webb business that's different from what it's been that would have an impact on the margin profile of how those communities have historically performed.

    薩姆,我們建造這種規模的社區已經有大約十年了。這就是我們的 Del Webb 業務。我們有幾個(不到五個)歷史較悠久的傳統社區,這些社區規模非常大,擁有 2,000 到 3,000 多個單元的 Del Webb 社區。但我們的 Del Webb 業務其實並沒有什麼不同,也不會對這些社區的歷史利潤狀況產生影響。

  • Sam Reid - Analyst

    Sam Reid - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Thanks so much, guys. I'll pass it on.

    這很有幫助。非常感謝大家。我會傳達的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Is thinking a little bit more about the regional variations that you mentioned in your remarks. It sounds like Texas and the West are especially tough relative to what you're seeing in the Northeast and much of the East Coast. When you think about those dynamics, are there different variables that you need to see in order to get some of those markets that are underperforming to come back? Is it all related to rates and jobs or other affordability? Or are there other factors that are going on a local level that are influencing some of the differences you're seeing on the ground?

    大家早安。正在進一步思考您在評論中提到的地區差異。聽起來,相對於東北部和東海岸大部分地區的情況而言,德州和西部的情況尤其艱難。當您考慮這些動態時,是否需要查看不同的變數才能讓一些表現不佳的市場復甦?這一切都與利率、就業或其他負擔能力有關嗎?或者是否存在其他在地方層級發生的因素影響了您在當地看到的一些差異?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Sue, I think as it relates to Texas, there was a buildup of inventory there post-COVID along with rapid price appreciation and the combination of those two things, the Texas markets have been working through that. We're seeing progress being made. We're still selling homes there, still good jobs and a lot of people that want to be in Texas.

    是的。蘇,我認為就德克薩斯州而言,在疫情之後,那裡的庫存不斷增加,價格也迅速上漲,這兩件事的結合,德克薩斯州的市場一直在努力解決這個問題。我們看到正在取得進展。我們仍然在那裡銷售房屋,仍然有好的工作,而且有很多人想住在德克薩斯州。

  • So we think we're at a moment in time. We're not overly worried about it. As it relates to California, I think we're dealing with a very high cost state that's also got a lot of tech dependent jobs and some of the -- I think, the concern and the challenges around the tech industry have played into consumer confidence with the buyers that work in those spaces or in those job categories and there's a lot there.

    所以我們認為我們正處於一個時刻。我們對此並不太擔心。就加州而言,我認為我們正處於一個成本非常高的州,這裡也有很多依賴科技的工作,而且我認為,圍繞科技行業的擔憂和挑戰已經影響了消費者對在這些領域或這些工作類別中工作的買家的信心,這種情況有很多。

  • I won't unpack every single one of them. And then you just combine that with kind of overall high prices and challenged affordability. And I think that's what's made Northern and Southern California more challenged, but I put Seattle in the same category for a lot of the same reasons.

    我不會逐一解釋它們。然後你只需將其與整體高價格和難以承受的價格結合。我認為這就是北加州和南加州面臨更大挑戰的原因,但出於許多相同的原因,我將西雅圖歸入同一類別。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Yeah. Okay. That's helpful. And then thinking about capital allocation, you obviously have a very strong balance sheet. The cash flows are healthy despite everything that's going on out there. Can you talk to your willingness to ramp shareholder returns? Or how you're thinking about priorities in general in terms of uses of cash?

    是的。好的。這很有幫助。然後考慮資本配置,你顯然擁有非常強勁的資產負債表。不管外面發生什麼,現金流仍然健康。您能談談您提高股東回報的意願嗎?或者您如何考慮現金使用的整體優先事項?

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Sue, we have a really thorough detailed process for how we think about capital allocation. Our view is always to generate the best outcome for our shareholder, whether it's about capital allocation or the number of homes we're building or the amount of spec inventory that we're carrying, I mean we really think about what's going to yield optimal return on invested capital.

    是的。蘇,我們對如何考慮資本配置有一個非常徹底且詳細的流程。我們的觀點始終是為股東創造最佳結果,無論是資本配置、正在建造的房屋數量還是我們持有的規格庫存數量,我的意思是,我們真正考慮的是如何為投資資本帶來最佳回報。

  • So we meet with our Board often, and they take a very active role in working with us as management to find the best outcome for capital allocation. We've been very consistent with share buyback and we've been very consistent in laying out our priorities of we want to invest in our business, first and foremost. That's what our investors have charged us with.

    因此,我們經常與董事會會面,他們積極地與我們管理層合作,尋找最佳的資本配置結果。我們一直堅持股票回購,並且我們一直堅持我們的優先事項,即我們首先要投資於我們的業務。這就是我們的投資者對我們的要求。

  • They've given us their capital to say, go invest in your business, go grow your business. We do that to the level that we believe generates great results. And then we think about returning cash -- excess cash that's being generated by successful operations in the business. And that's what we think about returning.

    他們給了我們資金,告訴我們,去投資你的業務,去發展你的業務。我們這樣做,相信能產生很好的效果。然後我們考慮返還現金——由業務成功運營產生的多餘現金。這就是我們對回歸的想法。

  • Fortunately, for us, over the last number of years, we've been able to do everything. We've invested in the business. We've grown our land pipeline. We've increased our dividend several times. We've paid down debt. And we've continued to be a consistent buyer of our own equity. So we'd like to continue to do everything, but we'll go through kind of the prioritization and the priority setting in that way, invest in the business, pay our dividend, return excess cash to shareholders.

    幸運的是,在過去的幾年裡,我們已經能夠做所有的事情了。我們已經對該業務進行了投資。我們已經擴大了陸地管道。我們已多次增加股利。我們已經還清了債務。我們一直是自有股權的穩定買家。因此,我們希望繼續做所有事情,但我們會透過這種方式確定優先順序和優先級,投資業務,支付股息,將多餘的現金回饋給股東。

  • Susan Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Maklari - Analyst

  • Yeah. Okay, thanks for all the color and goodluck on the quarter.

    是的。好的,感謝您的精彩表現,祝您本季好運。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Zener, Seaport Research.

    肯‧澤納 (Ken Zener),海港研究。

  • Ken Zener - Analyst

    Ken Zener - Analyst

  • Good morning, all. Ryan, I think you talked about incentives generally. So Texas and the West, which Texas is a little more, right? There's four big markets there. So can you talk about perhaps the 8.9%, how that's distributed amongst the regions awaiting your Q. But also, if you could substitute the word, you talked about consumer confidence.

    大家早安。瑞安,我認為你一般性地談論了激勵措施。那麼德克薩斯州和西部,哪個德克薩斯州更多一點,對嗎?那裡有四個大市場。那麼,您能否談談 8.9% 的比例,它在各個地區是如何分佈的,等待您的提問。但是,如果您可以換一個詞,您談到了消費者信心。

  • When we look at job growth, we see it half the long-term level in places like Dallas, I'd call that lack of jobs, which you obviously mentioned, but could you talk about how that is also impacting your buyer group? So Active Adult, let's say, Georgetown, Texas versus the entry level. If you could add that dynamic. Thank you.

    當我們觀察就業成長時,我們發現達拉斯等地的就業成長水準只有長期水準的一半,我稱之為就業機會的缺乏,您顯然提到了這一點,但您能否談談這對您的買家群體有何影響?那麼,活躍的成年人,比如說德州喬治敦與入門級。如果您可以新增該動態。謝謝。

  • Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Ryan Marshall - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So Ken, in terms of kind of the distribution of incentives, broadly, I would tell you, less incentives in places like Florida and Southeast, Northeast, Midwest, more incentives in Texas and the West, which is it's totally distributed and aligned based on where things are harder to sell, where things are easier to sell slicing at any thinner than that is probably more than we'd want to get into on this call.

    是的。因此,肯,就激勵措施的分配而言,大體上,我會告訴你,佛羅裡達州、東南部、東北部、中西部等地的激勵措施較少,德克薩斯州和西部的激勵措施較多,這完全是根據哪裡的東西更難賣、哪裡的東西更容易賣來分配和調整的,如果再細分,可能就超出了我們這次會議討論的範圍。

  • In terms of the Texas markets and slowing job growth, I'd probably not over-index on that. Dallas -- in fact, all four Texas markets are places where population is growing and jobs are growing. And as long as you have those two factors, you can and will have a thriving housing environment. And the Texas market satisfied both those criteria, growing jobs, growing population. So the fact that the rate of change is a little bit different. I probably wouldn't read too much into that just based on one period of slightly lower job growth.

    就德州市場和就業成長放緩而言,我可能不會對此過度關注。達拉斯——事實上,德州的所有四個市場都是人口不斷增長、就業不斷增加的地方。只要具備這兩個因素,你就能擁有一個繁榮的住房環境。德州市場滿足了這兩個標準,即就業機會增加,人口不斷增長。所以事實上變化率有點不同。僅基於就業成長略低的一段時期,我可能不會對此進行過多的解讀。

  • Ken Zener - Analyst

    Ken Zener - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Jim Zeumer for closing remarks.

    我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Jim Zeumer 做結束語。

  • Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Jim Zeumer - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thank you, everybody, for their time this morning. We're certainly available for the remainder of the day if you have any follow-up questions. Otherwise, we will look forward to speaking with you again in the fourth quarter. Thank you.

    偉大的。感謝大家今天上午抽出時間。如果您有任何後續問題,我們今天剩餘的時間都會為您解答。否則,我們期待在第四季度再次與您交談。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。