普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Audra, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup, Inc.'s third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded.

早安.我叫奧德拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup, Inc. 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jim Zeumer. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）此時，我想將會議轉交給 Jim Zeumer。請繼續。

Thank you, Audra, and good morning. I want to welcome all participants to today's earnings call to review PulteGroup's operating and financial performance the company's third quarter ended September 30, 2024. Here to review PulteGroup's Q3 results are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O'Shaughnessy Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Ossowski, Senior Vice President, Finance.

謝謝你，奧德拉，早安。我歡迎所有與會者參加今天的財報電話會議，回顧 PulteGroup 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的第三季度的營運和財務業績。鮑伯‧奧蕭內西 (Bob O'Shaughnessy) 執行副總裁兼財務長；吉姆‧奧索夫斯基 (Jim Ossowski)，財務資深副總裁。

A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We will post an audio replay of this call later today.

我們的收益發布副本和今天早上的簡報幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com。我們將在今天稍後發布本次通話的音訊重播。

I want to inform everyone that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today.

我想通知大家，今天的演示包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天評論中建議的結果有重大差異。

The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

在今天的收益發布和隨附的簡報幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來業績的最重要的風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵資訊在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan Marshall. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安馬歇爾。瑞安？

Thanks, Jim. I appreciate everyone joining our call this morning as we discuss another quarter of strong operating and financial results for PulteGroup.

謝謝，吉姆。我感謝今天早上大家加入我們的電話會議，我們討論了 PulteGroup 另一個季度強勁的營運和財務業績。

As detailed in this morning's press release, driven primarily by a 12% increase in closings, we reported a 16% year-over-year increase in third quarter earnings to $3.35 per share, inclusive of our strong Q3 financial performance for the first three quarters of 2024, PulteGroup has realized double-digit increases in closings, home sale revenues and pre-tax income along with a 22% increase in reported earnings to $10.28 per share.

正如今天上午的新聞稿中詳細介紹的那樣，主要受成交量增長12% 的推動，我們報告第三季度收益同比增長16%，達到每股3.35 美元，其中包括前三個季度強勁的第三季度財務業績到 2024 年，PulteGroup 的成交量、房屋銷售收入和稅前收入均實現兩位數增長，報告收益增長 22% 至每股 10.28 美元。

In addition to delivering significant growth in revenues and earnings for the trailing 12-month period, PulteGroup realized a return on equity of 27% while continuing to drive strong cash flow and lowering our debt to capital ratio to 12%.

除了在過去 12 個月內實現收入和收益的顯著增長外，PulteGroup 還實現了 27% 的股本回報率，同時繼續推動強勁的現金流並將債務與資本比率降低至 12%。

Our strong financial performance also allowed us to continue returning funds to shareholders. Through the first nine months of 2024, we returned $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. This is an increase of $200 million or 25% from last year in terms of funds allocated back to our investors.

我們強勁的財務表現也使我們能夠繼續向股東返還資金。 2024 年前 9 個月，我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 10 億美元。就分配給投資者的資金而言，這比去年增加了 2 億美元，即 25%。

I think these numbers are all the more impressive given the fluctuating macro backdrop that we've all been working through. Over the course of the year, we have seen the 30-year mortgage rates climbed from 6.75% in January, 7.5% in April only to fall back to 6% in September. And then, of course, the recent climb in interest rates back to 6.75% has the 30-year mortgage rate back to where we started 2024.

我認為，考慮到我們一直在經歷的波動的宏觀背景，這些數字更加令人印象深刻。在這一年中，我們看到30年期抵押貸款利率從1月的6.75%、4月份的7.5%攀升至9月的6%。當然，最近利率回升至 6.75%，使 30 年期抵押貸款利率回到 2024 年開始的水平。

We track consumer sentiment among visitors to our website and our communities and as you might expect, buyer confidence ebbs and flows with meaningful changes or even just volatility in interest rates. This again proved to be the case as buyers reacted to the movement in rates during the third quarter. With mortgage rates at around 6.5% to begin the third quarter, buyers were generally less [in coin] to sign a purchase agreement.

我們追蹤我們網站和社群訪客的消費者情緒，正如您所料，買家信心會隨著有意義的變化甚至只是利率波動而起伏不定。當買家對第三季利率變動做出反應時，情況再次被證明是這樣的。從第三季開始，抵押貸款利率約為 6.5%，買家簽署購買協議的費用普遍較低。

As interest rates declined through August and September, however, we experienced a noticeable pickup in overall activity. In fact, of the three months in the quarter, we generated the highest net new orders and absorption paces in the month of September.

然而，隨著八月和九月利率下降，我們的整體活動明顯回升。事實上，在本季的三個月中，我們在 9 月產生了最高的淨新訂單和吸收速度。

Driven by September strong performance, the Q3 absorption pace of 2.4 orders per community per month was certainly above the typical pre-COVID numbers for the third quarter. The recent October has shown the highest web traffic, foot traffic, and lead volume of the year. However, the recent rise in interest rates has demonstrated a more typical seasonal selling patterns and incentives have remained elevated as a consequence.

在 9 月強勁表現的推動下，第三季每個社區每月 2.4 個訂單的吸收速度肯定高於第三季新冠疫情前的典型數字。最近的十月顯示了今年最高的網路流量、人流量和潛在客戶量。然而，最近的利率上升表明了更典型的季節性銷售模式，因此激勵措施仍然較高。

Between rate volatility, the impact of hurricanes, and the upcoming presidential election, I think the upcoming spring selling season will offer the best assessment of fundamental housing demand. I think buyer reaction to the movement in rates, both down and now up again, affirms that affordability remains a tough hurdle to get over for many potential homebuyers.

在利率波動、颶風影響和即將到來的總統選舉之間，我認為即將到來的春季銷售季節將為基本住房需求提供最佳評估。我認為買家對利率變動的反應，無論是下降還是現在再次上升，都證實了對於許多潛在購屋者來說，負擔能力仍然是一個難以克服的障礙。

The most recent S&P Case-Shiller Index shows home prices continue to hit all-time new highs, although the rate of appreciation has slowed, which in combination with expected lower mortgage rates, could offer some relief to consumers going forward.

最新的標準普爾凱斯希勒指數顯示，儘管升值速度已經放緩，但房價繼續創下歷史新高，再加上預期抵押貸款利率下降，可能會給未來的消費者帶來一些安慰。

As has been discussed extensively over the past few years, one of the pressure points that continue to push home prices higher is the fact that after years of underbuilding, this country has a housing deficit estimated at several million homes.

正如過去幾年廣泛討論的那樣，繼續推高房價的壓力點之一是，經過多年的建設不足，這個國家的住房赤字估計有數百萬套。

The Mortgage Bankers Association issued a useful graphic a few weeks ago that is shown on slide 15 in today's webcast slides. The graph shows housing stock out of by decades since the 1940s. Looking at the graph, you can clearly see the significant drop in production during the past 15 years. To make this point even clear, we modified the MBA graph by overlaying the growth in US population over the decades.

抵押貸款銀行家協會幾週前發布了一張有用的圖表，如今天網路廣播投影片的第 15 張所示。該圖顯示，自 20 世紀 40 年代以來，房屋存量減少了數十年。從圖表中可以清楚地看到過去 15 年產量的大幅下降。為了使這一點更加清晰，我們透過疊加過去幾十年來美國人口的成長來修改 MBA 圖表。

What you see is that just since the 1960s, our country's population has almost doubled to just shy of 350 million people, while housing production has been flat to down over the decades. Given the high cost of homeownership, rate buydowns remain a powerful incentive in helping consumers bridge the affordability gap.

你看到的是，自 20 世紀 60 年代以來，我國人口幾乎翻了一番，達到近 3.5 億，而住房產量在過去幾十年裡一直持平甚至下降。鑑於住房擁有成本高昂，降息仍是幫助消費者縮小負擔能力差距的強大動力。

In the third quarter, approximately 30% of our homebuyers accessed our national rate program. To take advantage of our national rate incentive homebuyers will typically need to close within 30 to 60 days of signing a contract. So it's important that we continue to have an inventory of homes in production. At the end of the third quarter, 43% of the homes in production were specs. So we are well positioned to meet demand as we close out 2024.

第三季度，大約 30% 的購屋者加入了我們的國家房價計畫。為了利用我們的國家利率激勵政策，購屋者通常需要在簽訂合約後 30 至 60 天內完成交屋。因此，我們繼續擁有在建房屋的庫存非常重要。截至第三季末，43% 的生產房屋符合規格。因此，到 2024 年結束時，我們已做好充分準備來滿足需求。

Along with benefiting from having inventory available, we are also continuing to make progress in lowering our cycle times. For homes delivered in the third quarter, our average cycle time was 114 days, down from 123 days in this year's second quarter. Cutting two weeks out of our production timeline is an important accomplishment and it keeps us on track to reach our goal of 110 days by year-end and be at 100 days in the first part of 2025.

除了受益於可用庫存之外，我們還在縮短週期時間方面不斷取得進展。對於第三季交付的房屋，我們的平均週期時間為 114 天，低於今年第二季的 123 天。將我們的生產時間縮短兩週是一項重要成就，它使我們能夠在年底前實現 110 天的目標，並在 2025 年上半年達到 100 天的目標。

In truth, most of our divisions are already operating at or close to our 100-day ideal target. Our reported average is higher due to a handful of divisions, primarily those with large multifamily business or cycle times remain elevated. In summary, operationally and financially, we accomplished a lot in the third quarter and are well positioned to have 2024 be a record year for PulteGroup.

事實上，我們大多數部門的運作已經達到或接近我們的 100 天理想目標。我們報告的平均水平較高是由於少數部門，主要是那些擁有大型多戶型企業或週期時間仍然較高的部門。總而言之，在營運和財務方面，我們在第三季度取得了許多成就，並做好了充分準備，讓 2024 年成為 PulteGroup 創紀錄的一年。

Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a review of our third-quarter results.

現在讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，以審查我們的第三季業績。

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. Driven by strong closing volumes, our third-quarter wholesale revenues increased 12% over last year to $4.3 billion. Our higher revenues in the period reflect a 12% increase in closings to 7,924 homes, while our average sales price in the quarter of $548,000 is effectively unchanged from the prior year and the second quarter of this year. Average sales prices by [group] were also consistent with the prior year.

謝謝瑞安，早安。在強勁成交量的推動下，我們第三季的批發收入比去年增長 12%，達到 43 億美元。我們在此期間收入的增加反映了成交量增加了 12%，達到 7,924 套房屋，而我們本季度的平均銷售價格為 548,000 美元，與去年和今年第二季度相比實際上沒有變化。按[組別]劃分的平均銷售價格也與前一年一致。

The mix of our closings in the third quarter was 40% first time, 39% move-up, and 21% active adult. In the third quarter of last year, the mix of closings was 38%, first time, 37% move-up, and 25% active adult. The slight decline in the percentage of closings from active adult buyers primarily reflects the timing of active adult community closeouts in '23 and '24, and we noted in our sign-up commentary during our second-quarter earnings call.

第三季成交量的比例為 40% 為首次成交，39% 為升級成交，21% 為活躍成人成交。去年第三季度，首次成交比例為 38%，升等比例為 37%，成人成交比例為 25%。活躍成人買家的成交百分比略有下降，主要反映了 23 年和 24 年活躍成人社區成交的時間，我們在第二季度財報電話會議期間的註冊評論中指出。

We expect the normalization of contribution from our active adult consumers on replacement active adult communities begin opening in 2025.

我們預期活躍成人消費者對替代活躍成人社群的貢獻將於 2025 年開始正常化。

Looking at our orders, net new orders in the third quarter totaled 731 homes, which is consistent with the 7,065 net new orders recorded in the third quarter of last year. It's worth noting that our average monthly absorption pace of 2.4 homes in the current quarter remains higher than our historic third quarter pre-COVID average, which was closer to 2.2 homes per month.

從我們的訂單來看，第三季的淨新訂單總數為 731 套，與去年第三季的淨新訂單 7,065 套一致。值得注意的是，本季我們的平均每月吸收量為 2.4 套房屋，仍然高於我們在新冠疫情爆發前第三季度的歷史平均水平，即每月 2.2 套房屋。

Within the quarter, we did see a positive impact on monthly orders and interest rates declined from July through September. Compared with the prior year, Q3 orders decreased 3% for first-time buyers increased 6% for move-up buyers and decreased 5% for active adult buyers. Consistent with our guide, we operated out of an average of 957 communities during the quarter, which is an increase of just under 4% compared with the third quarter of last year.

在本季度內，我們確實看到了月度訂單的正面影響，且利率從 7 月到 9 月有所下降。與去年同期相比，第三季首次買家的訂單量下降了 3%，升級買家的訂單量增加了 6%，活躍的成年買家的訂單量下降了 5%。根據我們的指南，本季我們平均經營 957 個社區，與去年第三季相比成長了近 4%。

Phase 1 activity during the quarter, order end backlog was 12,089 homes with a value of $7.7billion which compares with the backlog of 13,547 homes with a value of $8.1 billion at the end of the third quarter last year. During the quarter, we started approximately 7,800 homes and ended the quarter with a total of 17,096 homes under construction. These numbers are consistent with Q3 of last year.

本季第一階段活動中，訂單末期積壓房屋數量為 12,089 套，價值 77 億美元，去年第三季末積壓房屋數量為 13,547 套，價值 81 億美元。本季度，我們啟動了大約 7,800 套房屋，到本季結束時，在建房屋總數為 17,096 套。這些數字與去年第三季一致。

At the end of the quarter, we had approximately 7,400 spec homes in production, of which 1,357 homes were complete. This represents about 1.4 finished specs per community, which is consistent with the second quarter of this year.

截至本季末，我們約有 7,400 套規格住宅在生產，其中 1,357 套已竣工。這代表每個社區大約有 1.4 個成品規格，與今年第二季的情況一致。

On a unit basis, 58% of our third-quarter sales were spec sales, highlighting the importance of having inventory available to meet buyer demand. Buyer interest in spec production has been driven in part by our successful use of mortgage incentives, which are most effective when the consumer expects to close quickly.

按單位計算，我們第三季銷售額的 58% 是規格銷售，這凸顯了擁有可用庫存以滿足買家需求的重要性。買家對規格生產的興趣在一定程度上是由於我們成功利用抵押貸款激勵措施而推動的，當消費者期望快速成交時，抵押貸款激勵措施最為有效。

As always, we will continue to closely monitor consumer preferences for any changes if mortgage rates continue to decline. Based on the units we have under construction and the current stage of production, we currently expect to close between 7,900 and 8,300 homes in the fourth quarter. I would highlight that this keeps us on track to meet or slightly exceed our full-year closing target of 31,000 homes.

一如既往，如果抵押貸款利率繼續下降，我們將繼續密切關註消費者偏好的任何變化。根據我們正在建造的單位和目前的生產階段，我們目前預計第四季將關閉 7,900 至 8,300 套房屋。我想強調的是，這使我們有望實現或略超過 31,000 套房屋的全年成交目標。

Given the affordability challenges facing today's home buying consumers, and evolving market dynamics in key cities in which we operate, our pricing strategy seeks to ensure we maintain a compelling offering to all consumers. With that said, our average sales price in the third quarter was $548,000 which is consistent with our guidance for average pricing to be in the range of $540,000, $550,000.

鑑於當今購屋消費者面臨的負擔能力挑戰，以及我們經營所在的主要城市不斷變化的市場動態，我們的定價策略旨在確保我們為所有消費者提供具有吸引力的產品。話雖如此，我們第三季的平均銷售價格為 548,000 美元，這與我們對平均定價在 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元範圍內的指導一致。

Looking at the fourth quarter, we currently expect our average sales price to be in a higher range of $555,000 and to $565,000. As we have discussed on prior calls, this is largely due to a higher percentage of our closings coming from our Western markets, where selling prices are above company average. Our third quarter gross margin came in at a strong 28.8%.

展望第四季度，我們目前預計平均銷售價格將在 555,000 美元至 565,000 美元之間。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，這主要是因為我們的成交量中有較高比例來自西方市場，這些市場的售價高於公司平均水平。我們第三季的毛利率高達 28.8%。

As we highlighted during our most recent earnings call, our margins in this quarter reflect an increasing percentage of our closings coming from our Western markets, which relative to other parts of our business at slightly lower margins.

正如我們在最近一次財報電話會議上所強調的那樣，我們本季的利潤率反映了我們來自西方市場的結單比例不斷增加，而相對於我們業務其他部分的利潤率略低。

Our third-quarter margins were also impacted by higher incentive costs incurred during the period. Incentives in the third quarter were 7%, which is a sequential increase of 70 basis points from the second quarter of this year.

我們第三季的利潤率也受到了期間激勵成本上升的影響。第三季的激勵率為7%，比今年第二季較上季增加了70個基點。

Given competitive market dynamics, higher incentives were needed to help ensure we continue to sell homes and turn our assets. As Ryan talked about, higher demand improved as interest rates declined in the third quarter, but overall market dynamics remain competitive.

鑑於競爭激烈的市場動態，需要更高的激勵措施來幫助確保我們繼續出售房屋並週轉我們的資產。正如瑞安所說，隨著第三季利率下降，需求增加，但整體市場動態仍具有競爭力。

As such, we expect incentives to remain elevated for at least the remainder of the year. Given the anticipated geographic and product mix of fourth quarter closings and the expected need to maintain higher incentives, we currently expect gross margin in the fourth quarter to be in the range of 27.5% to 27.8%.

因此，我們預計至少在今年剩餘時間內激勵措施將保持在較高水準。考慮到第四季度交割的預期地理和產品組合以及維持更高激勵措施的預期需要，我們目前預計第四季度的毛利率將在 27.5% 至 27.8% 的範圍內。

Based on our fourth quarter guide, our full year gross margin would amount to approximately 29%. Continuing down the income statement, our reported SG&A expense in the third quarter was $407 million or 9.4% of home sale revenues. This compares with prior year SG&A expense of $353 million or 9.1% of home sale revenues.

根據我們第四季的指導，我們全年的毛利率約為 29%。繼續查看損益表，我們報告的第三季 SG&A 費用為 4.07 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.4%。相較之下，前一年的 SG&A 費用為 3.53 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.1%。

Our third-quarter SG&A expense was in line with previous guidance and keeps us on track for SG&A expense of 9.2% to 9.5% of wholesale revenues for the full year.

我們第三季的 SG&A 費用與先前的指導一致，並使我們的 SG&A 費用保持在全年批發收入的 9.2% 至 9.5% 之間。

I would note that our full year guide excludes the impact of the insurance adjustments we recorded in the first and second quarters of this year. Our financial services operations reported another quarter of strong operating and financial results as third quarter pre-tax income increased 90% over last year to $55 million. For the quarter, our financial services operations benefited from increased volume driven by the higher closing volumes in our homebuilding business in combination with approved capture rates.

我要指出的是，我們的全年指南不包括我們今年第一季和第二季記錄的保險調整的影響。我們的金融服務業務又報告了一個季度強勁的營運和財務業績，第三季稅前收入比去年同期增長 90%，達到 5,500 萬美元。本季度，我們的金融服務業務受益於住宅建築業務成交量增加以及批准的捕獲率推動的交易量增加。

In addition, we experienced increased profitability particularly in our mortgage operations due to improving market conditions driving higher margin performance. In total for the quarter, we reported pretax income of $906 million which represents an increase of 7% over the third quarter of last year.

此外，由於市場條件改善推動了更高的利潤率表現，我們的獲利能力有所提高，特別是在抵押貸款業務方面。總的來說，本季我們的稅前收入為 9.06 億美元，比去年第三季成長 7%。

Our tax expense for the quarter was $208 million or an effective tax rate of 23%. Our effective tax rate for the quarter includes a $14 million benefit associated with the purchase of renewable energy tax credits completed in the quarter. In the fourth quarter, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 24% to 24.5% excluding the impact of any potential incremental energy tax credit purchases.

我們本季的稅費為 2.08 億美元，有效稅率為 23%。我們本季的有效稅率包括與本季完成的再生能源稅收抵免購買相關的 1,400 萬美元收益。在第四季度，我們預計稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間，不包括任何潛在增量能源稅收抵免購買的影響。

Looking at the bottom line, our reported net income was $698 million or $3.35 per share representing increases of 9% and 16%, respectively, over the third quarter of last year. Earnings per share in the third quarter was calculated based on approximately 208 million diluted shares outstanding which is down 5% from the prior year as the company continued to systematically executed share repurchase program.

從底線來看，我們報告的淨利潤為 6.98 億美元或每股 3.35 美元，分別比去年第三季度增長 9% 和 16%。第三季的每股盈餘是根據約2.08億股稀釋後流通股計算的，由於公司繼續有系統地執行股票回購計劃，較上年下降5%。

Consistent with our stated strategies, we continue to allocate incremental capital to the future growth of our homebuilding platform. In the third quarter, we invested $1.4 billion in land acquisition and development, of which 56% was for the development of existing land assets.

根據我們既定的策略，我們繼續將增量資金分配給我們的住宅建築平台的未來成長。第三季度，我們投入14億美元用於土地收購和開發，其中56%用於現有土地資產的開發。

On a year-to-date basis, we have invested $3.7 billion in land acquisition and development and now expect our full year spend to be in the range of $5 billion to $5.2 billion as our land teams continue to do an exceptional job identifying and structuring land investments that meet our strict underwriting guidelines.

今年迄今，我們已投資 37 億美元用於土地收購和開發，現在預計我們的全年支出將在 50 億至 52 億美元之間，因為我們的土地團隊將繼續出色地識別和構建土地符合我們嚴格承保準則的土地投資。

Inclusive of our land spend in the quarter, we ended the quarter with approximately 235,000 lots under control, of which 56% were held via option. We continue to make steady progress in increasing the percentage of our land that we control via option as we seek to drive greater balance sheet efficiency and support of higher returns in the future.

包括本季的土地支出在內，我們在本季末控制了約 235,000 個地塊，其中 56% 透過選擇權持有。我們在提高透過選擇權控制的土地比例方面繼續取得穩步進展，力求提高資產負債表效率並支持未來更高的回報。

Based on our land pipeline and the expected timing of community openings and closings, we currently expect to operate out of an average of 950 communities in the fourth quarter, which would represent an increase of 3% over the fourth quarter of last year.

根據我們的土地儲備以及預計的社區開業和關閉時間，我們目前預計第四季平均營運 950 個社區，這將比去年​​第四季增加 3%。

In addition to investing in the ongoing growth of our business, we continue to consistently return capital to shareholders. In the third quarter, we repurchased 2.5 million common shares at a cost of $320 million or an average price of $126.5 per share. Through the first nine months of the year, we have repurchased 7.6 million shares or approximately 4% of our shares outstanding at the beginning of the year at a cost of $880 million or $115.74 per share.

除了投資於我們業務的持續成長外，我們還繼續持續向股東返還資本。第三季度，我們回購了250萬股普通股，成本為3.2億美元，平均價格為每股126.5美元。今年前九個月，我們回購了 760 萬股股票，約佔年初已發行股票的 4%，成本為 8.8 億美元，即每股 115.74 美元。

Following these repurchases, we ended the period with just over $1 billion remaining on our existing repurchase authorization. And finally, we ended the third quarter with a gross debt-to-capital ratio of 12.3%. Adjusting for the $1.5 billion of cash on our balance sheet, our net debt to capital ratio was 1.4%.

在這些回購之後，我們現有的回購授權中還剩下略高於 10 億美元的資金。最後，第三季結束時，我們的總負債與資本比率為 12.3%。調整資產負債表上 15 億美元的現金後，我們的淨負債與資本比率為 1.4%。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

現在讓我把電話轉回瑞安，徵求一些最後的意見。

Thanks, Bob.

謝謝，鮑伯。

I'm very proud of our organization as our local and national teams have done a great job navigating the ups and downs of 2024. Within such an environment, it's more important than ever that we continue to focus on the critical business strategies and tactics that have been instrumental to our success.

我為我們的組織感到非常自豪，因為我們的本地和國家團隊在應對2024 年的起起落落方面做得非常出色。於關鍵業務策略和戰術，對我們的成功發揮了重要作用。

First, we are continuing to invest in our business. We expect to invest just over $5 billion in land acquisition and development this year, underwriting to the same return hurdles and guidelines that we've had in place for more than a decade. Our disciplined process has allowed us to assemble a robust pipeline of what we believe are well located and high-returning projects.

首先，我們將繼續投資我們的業務。我們預計今年將在土地收購和開發方面投資超過 50 億美元，遵守我們十多年來實施的相同回報障礙和指導方針。我們嚴格的流程使我們能夠組建一個強大的管道，其中包含我們認為位置優越且回報率高的項目。

In the process of underwriting new deals, we continue our migration toward controlling more land via option. This will be a multiyear effort that we see the opportunity for increasing our option lot count as a way to enhance returns and help mitigate market risk. We have a long-term goal of getting to 70% option lots, which will be an evolutionary process as we work through our existing communities and add new option lot deals to the overall portfolio.

在承銷新交易的過程中，我們繼續透過選擇權控制更多土地。這將是一項多年的努力，我們看到了增加選擇權手數的機會，以此作為提高回報並幫助降低市場風險的一種方式。我們的長期目標是達到 70% 的選擇權手數，這將是一個漸進的過程，因為我們透過現有社區開展工作，並向整個投資組合添加新的選擇權手數交易。

Second, while we continue to invest in new land positions, we have to make sure we are efficiently and intelligently turning our existing land assets. Within our business model, we seek to achieve high returns by balancing the desire to maximize profitability of each home while making sure we are turning our land assets. We often use the phrase, we can't be margin proud. The gross margin is an important driver of return on invested capital, and we don't want to give away lots that we've worked hard to secure.

其次，在我們繼續投資新土地的同時，我們必須確保有效率、明智地利用現有土地資產。在我們的商業模式中，我們尋求透過平衡每個房屋盈利最大化的願望來實現高回報，同時確保我們正在轉動我們的土地資產。我們經常使用這句話，我們不能以利潤為傲。毛利率是投資資本報酬率的重要驅動因素，我們不想放棄我們努力爭取的大量利潤。

At the same time, we must be price competitive and offer a clear and compelling value to potential homebuyers. I think our third-quarter results show this balancing act as we continue to generate historically high gross margins, but we meaningfully increased incentives in response to the more competitive market conditions in which we're currently operating.

同時，我們必須具有價格競爭力，並為潛在購屋者提供明確且令人信服的價值。我認為我們的第三季業績顯示了這種平衡行為，因為我們繼續創造歷史高點的毛利率，但我們有意義地增加了激勵措施，以應對我們目前營運的競爭更加激烈的市場條件。

And third, we must continue to allocate capital in alignment with our long-stated priorities. As just discussed, we continue to invest in the ongoing growth of our business through land acquisition and development. If we achieve our 2024 land investment target of $5 billion, our five-year land acquisition and development spend will total more than $20 billion. In a world where not in my backyard is alive and well, such investment represents countless hours of hard work by our land teams throughout the country.

第三，我們必須繼續根據我們長期確定的優先事項分配資本。正如剛才所討論的，我們繼續透過土地收購和開發來投資我們業務的持續成長。如果我們實現 2024 年 50 億美元的土地投資目標，我們五年的土地收購和開發支出總計將超過 200 億美元。在一個不在我後院的世界裡，這樣的投資代表了我們遍布全國的土地團隊無數小時的辛勤工作。

After investing capital to support the ongoing growth of our business, we continue to systematically return funds to shareholders with 2024 being the fourth year in a row in which we will have returned over $1 billion back to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

在投入資本支持業務持續成長後，我們繼續有系統地向股東返還資金，到 2024 年，我們將連續第四年透過股票回購和股息向股東返還超過 10 億美元。

Over $20 billion invested in land, over $4 billion returned to shareholders and all while building a strong and highly supportive balance sheet with low leverage and high liquidity. I strongly believe this is a balance sheet that can support our growth plans as well as continue to see us through the ups and downs of higher demand that inevitably roll through the housing industry.

超過 200 億美元投資於土地，超過 40 億美元返還給股東，同時建立了一個強大且高度支持性的、低槓桿和高流動性的資產負債表。我堅信，這是一份資產負債表，可以支持我們的成長計劃，並繼續幫助我們度過住房行業不可避免的更高需求的起起落落。

Let me close by thanking our entire organization for their hard work in delivering PulteGroup's outstanding operating and financial results. Hurricanes made this effort even tougher over the past few months, but I am incredibly proud, although not at all surprised of how our team rallied to support fellow employees directly impacted by these storms. You compassionate efforts are why PulteGroup remains a great place to work.

最後，我要感謝我們整個組織為實現 PulteGroup 出色的營運和財務表現所做的辛勤工作。在過去的幾個月裡，颶風使這項工作變得更加困難，但我感到非常自豪，儘管對我們的團隊如何團結起來支持直接受到這些風暴影響的同事一點也不感到驚訝。你們的富有同情心的努力是 PulteGroup 仍然是一個優秀工作場所的原因。

Now let me turn the call back to Jim.

現在讓我把電話轉回給吉姆。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions so we can get to as many questions as possible for the remaining time of this call. We ask limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備開始提問，以便我們可以在本次電話會議的剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題。我們要求您只提出一個問題並進行一項後續行動。謝謝。

And I'll now ask Audra to again explain the process and open the call for questions. Audra?

現在我將請奧德拉再次解釋這個過程並開始提問。奧德拉？

(Operator Instructions) John Lovallo, UBS.

（操作員說明）John Lovallo，UBS。

The first one is maybe just help us on the sequential walk-in gross margin from 28.8% in the third quarter to the range of 27.5% to 28% in the fourth quarter. Does that assume an incremental step-up in incentives what is sort of the breakout between the headwind from incentives versus mix?

第一個可能只是幫助我們將連續毛利率從第三季的 28.8% 提高到第四季的 27.5% 至 28%。這是否假設激勵措施逐步加強，激勵措施與混合措施之間的逆風有何突破？

John, I think it's reflective of the current market that we're operating in. We highlighted in the commentary as it relates to Q3, coming into the quarter, we had given the guide and said that incentives would be flat.

約翰，我認為這反映了我們目前所處的市場。

Obviously, they were a little bit richer than we had expected. We had a lot of homes to sell in the third quarter. The activity that we have seen has had that higher incentive load. We still have homes to sell in the fourth quarter. So it really is just a function of what we're seeing on the ground today.

顯然，他們比我們預期的要富有一些。第三季我們有很多房屋要出售。我們所看到的活動具有更高的激勵負荷。第四季我們仍有房屋可供出售。所以這實際上只是我們今天所看到的情況的一個函數。

Another thing more broadly that impacts this is the slight step down in the active adult as a percentage of the mix and so we're -- we highlighted during the second quarter that we saw some closeouts. And so we've got some -- for lack of better word, gap outs and active adult. So you've seen the percentage of our total business in active adult shrink a couple of basis points. That obviously has the highest margin contribution. So it's a combination of all those factors.

另一件更廣泛影響這一點的事情是，活躍成年人在混合人群中所佔的百分比略有下降，因此我們在第二季度強調，我們看到了一些清倉。所以我們有一些 - 由於缺乏更好的詞，空白和活躍的成年人。因此，您已經看到活躍成人業務占我們總業務的百分比縮小了幾個基點。這顯然具有最高的利潤貢獻。所以這是所有這些因素的結合。

Understood. Okay. And then Ryan mentioned the hurricanes, obviously, there were pretty devastating storms, Milton really hitting Florida pretty hard and Helene going up into the Carolinas. What is the impact that you guys perhaps saw in the quarter? And what are you kind of contemplating as we move forward here as a potential impact on whether it's deliveries, orders or whatever the case may be.

明白了。好的。然後瑞安提到了颶風，顯然，有相當毀滅性的風暴，米爾頓確實對佛羅裡達州造成了相當大的打擊，而海倫則進入了卡羅來納州。你們在本季看到的影響是什麼？當我們向前推進時，您在考慮什麼，因為這對交付、訂單或任何情況都有潛在影響。

Yes, John, it's Ryan. First thoughts and prayers go out to the communities and the individual families that were impacted by the storms. They were certainly both very large and devastating in different ways. I'd maybe start first by highlighting how well our communities performed both our communities that are in active construction as well as homes that we've recently closed.

是的，約翰，我是瑞安。首先向受風暴影響的社區和個人家庭表示哀悼和祈禱。它們無疑都非常龐大，並且在不同方面具有毀滅性。我可能會先強調我們的社區在正在建設中的社區以及我們最近關閉的房屋的表現如何。

The new construction standards and the quality that we build to the way that the drainage systems are designed, I think are a real testament to just how effective some of those standards are. So we had very little damage in our active communities, which is good news.

我認為，新的建築標準和我們按照排水系統設計方式建造的品質真正證明了其中一些標準的有效性。因此，我們的活躍社區受到的損害很小，這是個好消息。

The biggest impact is really two things, John. One loss of time so the three to four days to shut job sites down in advance of the storm and then the three to four days kind of following the storms with cleanup. Those are days that are just hard to get back.

最大的影響其實有兩件事，約翰。損失的時間之一是在風暴來臨之前需要三到四天關閉工地，然後在風暴過後又需要三到四天進行清理工作。那些日子很難再回來了。

Power is the second issue. So especially with Milton, the power outages were really widespread in Florida, especially in the Tampa and Southwest Florida areas. So power crews are focused on bringing the power grids back online. They're not as focused on setting new electrical meters or homes that will deliver in Q4.

權力是第二個問題。因此，尤其是米爾頓，停電在佛羅裡達州非常普遍，特別是在坦帕和佛羅裡達州西南部地區。因此，電力人員的重點是讓電網重新上線。他們並不專注於設置將在第四季度交付的新電錶或房屋。

So we're still kind of working to quantify what those exact numbers are. We're confident in the guide that we'll -- that we've -- that Bob provided to you. And we'll know more, I think, in the coming weeks as the power companies recover.

因此，我們仍在努力量化這些確切的數字。我們對鮑伯向您提供的指南充滿信心。我認為，隨著電力公司的復甦，我們將在未來幾週內了解更多。

The other maybe kind of third-tier item would be some of the municipalities will be a little slower in responding to inspections as they're dealing with kind of cleanup areas in the hard-hit communities

另一個可能的第三級項目是一些市政當局對檢查的響應速度會稍慢一些，因為他們正在處理受災嚴重的社區的清理區域

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Just following up on the margin guide. You mentioned the mix of the business, active adult, et cetera, and you kind of touched on the storms. But I guess this is kind of like a two-part question specific to Florida. Your margins in Florida are well above company average. So I'm curious if that's impacting specifically the 4Q numbers, specifically for the guidance.

只是跟進保證金指南。你提到了商業、活躍的成年人等的混合，你也談到了風暴。但我想這有點像是佛羅裡達州特有的由兩部分組成的問題。你們在佛羅裡達州的利潤率遠高於公司平均。所以我很好奇這是否會具體影響第四季的數字，特別是對指導的影響。

But kind of more importantly, I guess, if you could just talk a little bit about what you are seeing in Florida outside of the storm impact. There's a lot of concern about rising resell inventory in the market, challenged affordability.

但我想，更重要的是，如果你能談談你在佛羅裡達州所看到的風暴影響之外的情況。人們對市場上轉售庫存的增加感到很多擔憂，這對承受能力提出了挑戰。

And I'm just curious how you guys are thinking about that market relative to your very strong margins, do you think there's an opportunity maybe to take advantage of that with taking share, maybe more incentivizing. Or do you feel like your land position in that market is so strong that you're -- as you mentioned, not looking to give away those lots?

我只是好奇你們如何看待這個市場相對於你們非常高的利潤率，你們認為是否有機會利用這個機會來獲取份額，也許更具激勵性。或者您覺得您在該市場的土地地位非常強大，以至於您——正如您所提到的那樣，不打算放棄這些土地？

Yes, Alan, we're actually -- we remain very bullish on Florida. We talked about it a little bit in the end of our second quarter. And on a positive note, we had a great third quarter out of Florida and a lot of the inventory trends both on resale inventory and new inventory have improved, and they're down from where things peak. So I think that's a positive in a quarter, which is typically one of the slower quarters in Florida as you end the nicer weather summer months up north.

是的，艾倫，我們實際上 - 我們仍然非常看好佛羅裡達州。我們在第二季末對此進行了一些討論。從積極的方面來看，我們在佛羅裡達州的第三季度表現出色，轉售庫存和新庫存的許多庫存趨勢都有所改善，並且已從峰值水平下降。因此，我認為這對一個季度來說是積極的，這通常是佛羅裡達州較慢的季度之一，因為北方的夏季天氣較好。

As we move into the fourth quarter and we get into what is the traditional shoulder season in Florida, where the snowbirds start coming back into town, I think we're well positioned to have a pretty good fourth quarter. So we're in every major city or almost every major city in Florida. We don't do a lot of business in Miami. But where -- our brands are really strong there. We've got great communities. So I think Florida will continue to be a positive for us.

當我們進入第四季度並進入佛羅裡達州傳統的平季時，雪鳥開始返回城鎮，我認為我們已經做好了準備，可以度過一個相當不錯的第四季度。因此，我們遍布佛羅裡達州的每個主要城市或幾乎每個主要城市。我們在邁阿密的生意不多。但我們的品牌在那裡確實很強大。我們有很棒的社區。所以我認為佛羅裡達將繼續對我們產生積極的影響。

Yes, Alan, it's interesting. You heard Ryan say how well our markets held up there. So we don't see a mix shift in the fourth quarter. Pending, of course, the municipalities ability to actually deliver permits, which we think they will, and we think we'll be able to work through.

是的，艾倫，這很有趣。你聽到瑞安說我們的市場在那裡表現得多麼好。因此，我們認為第四季不會出現混合變化。當然，在市政府有能力實際發放許可證之前，我們認為他們會的，而且我們認為我們能夠解決這個問題。

We had highlighted more of the geography and the margin is really that Western markets have on a relative basis, slightly lower margins for us, and that's going to be a higher percentage in the fourth quarter than it was in the third.

我們強調了更多的地理位置和利潤率，實際上西方市場相對而言，我們的利潤率略低，第四季的百分比將高於第三季。

And then it's the incentives on the spec or entry level probably that have more influence. And as we highlighted in the prepared remarks, our expectation is that the incentive levels are going to stay high.

然後是規格或入門級的激勵措施可能具有更大的影響力。正如我們在準備好的發言中所強調的那樣，我們的期望是激勵水平將保持在較高水平。

Got it. That's helpful, Bob. And you kind of touched on -- you mentioned entry-level higher incentives. I guess more broadly, you guys are one of, if not the most diversified builders from a price point perspective.

知道了。這很有幫助，鮑伯。您提到了入門級更高的激勵措施。我想更廣泛地說，從價格角度來看，你們即使不是最多元化的建築商之一。

Can you just drill in a little bit in terms of what you're seeing at the various segments in terms of demand right now between entry, move-up, and active adult? I know you give the numbers on orders, but that doesn't always tell the whole story given community count openings and closings, et cetera.

您能否稍微深入了解一下目前在入門級、升級級和活躍成人級之間的各個細分市場的需求情況？我知道你給出了訂單上的數字，但考慮到社區數量的開放和關閉等情況，這並不總是能說明全部情況。

Yeah, Alan, I'll take that one. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in October, and we talked about it on prior calls, we do a survey with buyers that come to our website just about how confident they are about now being a good time to buy. We're at a 12-month high in that number. So I think that's generally a positive sign for the business.

是的，艾倫，我要那個。我在 10 月準備好的發言中提到，我們在先前的電話會議上談到了這一點，我們對訪問我們網站的買家進行了一項調查，了解他們對現在是購買好時機的信心。我們的這一數字達到了 12 個月以來的最高水平。所以我認為這對企業來說通常是一個正面的訊號。

Our website traffic, our lead traffic and our foot traffic into our stores also at 12-month high. So there's a lot of real positive activity in the top of the funnel and September was the best month in the quarter, drilling down into the individual brands, the entry-level buyer continues to be most challenged by affordability. So when rates came down in September, I think we saw a nice pickup in buying power that had a very favorable impact to that particular buyer.

我們的網站流量、潛在流量和商店客流量也創 12 個月新高。因此，漏斗頂部有很多真正的積極活動，九月是本季最好的月份，深入到各個品牌，入門級買家仍然面臨承受能力的最大挑戰。因此，當 9 月利率下降時，我認為我們看到購買力大幅回升，這對特定買家產生了非常有利的影響。

So I think that's a positive. The movement buyer continues to be really strong for us. And with that being 40% of our business, I think we're really well positioned for that consumer group to continue to perform well in the current environment. And if we're fortunate enough to see some improved rates in the next couple of months as we go into spring selling season, I think that particular buyer group will perform very well.

所以我認為這是積極的。運動買家對我們來說仍然非常強大。這占我們業務的 40%，我認為我們確實處於有利位置，可以讓該消費者群體在當前環境中繼續表現良好。如果我們有幸在接下來的幾個月進入春季銷售季節時看到價格有所改善，我認為特定的買家群體將表現得非常好。

And then active adult, and we've talked about this in years past, this is a buyer group that's probably most impacted by volatility in the market and uncertainty in the market. And right now, the thing that we're hearing the most about is the election.

然後是活躍的成年人，我們在過去幾年中已經討論過這一點，這是一個可能最受市場波動和市場不確定性影響的買家群體。現在，我們聽到最多的事情就是選舉。

And there's just -- there's a lot of uncertainty around the nonstop garage that we're getting with the election in a couple of weeks. So we're kind of waiting for the next couple of weeks to be over and we think that buyer will come back into the market shortly thereafter.

而且，隨著幾週後的選舉，我們將面臨許多關於不間斷車庫的不確定性。因此，我們正在等待接下來的幾週結束，我們認為買家很快就會回到市場。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Appreciate all the information so far. I wanted to focus specifically on timing, I think. You made a couple of comments about what you think may happen next year? I think you indicated that you thought that given the sort of the volatility in buyer demand due to rates that maybe we're really going to have to look to the spring selling season to sort of see how the market is ultimately going to settle out.

感謝迄今為止的所有資訊。我想我想特別關注時機。您對明年可能發生的情況發表了一些評論？我認為您表示您認為考慮到由於利率造成的買家需求的波動，也許我們真的必須關注春季銷售季節才能了解市場最終將如何穩定下來。

And I think you're right on that. I think that the spring selling season is going to be a big focus probably for investors as well. I'm just trying to get a sense for how you might see timing of certain things you've talked about evolve here over the net. What it means for timing, I guess, I should say.

我認為你是對的。我認為春季銷售季節也可能成為投資者的一大焦點。我只是想了解一下您可能會如何看待您所討論的某些事情的時間安排在網路上的演變。我想，我應該說一下，這對時機意味著什麼。

So first of all, you talked about the hurricane impact you think that some of the delays that you felt from that will impact fully -- do you think that there's going to be any spillover into 1Q, particularly as it relates to deliveries, the revenues, you talked about the timing of the active adult gap out.

首先，您談到了颶風的影響，您認為您感受到的一些延誤將產生全面影響——您認為第一季是否會有任何溢出效應，特別是與交付、收入有關的影響，您談到了活躍的成人間隙的時機。

I think you indicated that you thought that, that would get better in 2025. Can you give us a sense for sort of when in 2025? Are we -- and when, in particular, that might affect like revenues because obviously, these homes may take a while to build. Those are the two major ones that I wanted to understand better what you're thinking about from a timing perspective?

我認為您表示您認為 2025 年情況會變得更好。我們是否——特別是何時，這可能會影響類似的收入，因為顯然，這些房屋可能需要一段時間才能建造。這是我想更好地理解您從時間角度考慮的兩個主要問題？

Yeah, Stephen, it's Ryan. Thanks for the question. We've given a guide for Q4 that we're confident in. So we think we've factored in kind of our best estimate of what the hurricane-related delays and impacts will be. If things go quicker and better than expected potentially, we get a few more closings in the fourth quarter. But we're confident in the guide that we've given.

是的，史蒂芬，我是瑞安。謝謝你的提問。我們已經給出了我們有信心的第四季度指南。如果事情進展得比預期更快更好，我們將在第四季度完成更多交易。但我們對我們提供的指南充滿信心。

Then as it relates to kind of 2025 and spillover impact from the hurricane. We haven't given a guide at this point. We'll do that at the end of next quarter. History is a guide. I think the system will come back online. And other than, again, power-related setting of transformers and energizing communities. Those are the things that I think we sometimes see some delays around.

然後，它涉及 2025 年的情況以及颶風的溢出影響。目前我們還沒有給出指導。我們將在下個季度末做到這一點。歷史是一個指南。我認為系統會恢復上線。再說一次，除了與電力相關的變壓器設置和為社區供電之外。我認為我們有時會在這些事情上看到一些延誤。

But we'll tell you more about that as we get closer as it relates to kind of active adult, would also give you our community count guide next year. Those communities have been in the pipeline for a long time. They're actively being developed right now. So we've got great visibility to when they're going to open.

但隨著我們越來越接近，我們會告訴您更多相關信息，因為它與活躍的成年人有關，明年還將為您提供我們的社區計數指南。這些社區已經醞釀很久了。它們現在正在積極開發中。因此，我們可以很好地了解它們何時開放。

And most of those will start to open in the back half of '25 and then start to show closings in 2026. But we haven't given a guide for 2025 and other than I would reiterate, we've talked about kind of our long-term growth guide of wanting to operate the business in a 5% to 10% growth window.

其中大多數將在 25 年下半年開始開業，然後開始在 2026 年關閉。至10% 的成長窗口內營運業務的長期成長指南。

And if we look -- just staying on the active adult side a little bit, it sounds like 2024, most of '24 had maybe a richer mix of active adult than we're going to have in 2025. And just -- and then it will -- sounds like it will become a little richer again.

如果我們看一下——只是稍微停留在活躍的成人方面，聽起來像 2024 年，24 年的大部分時間可能比 2025 年的活躍成人更豐富。一些。

When you're thinking about managing the business over the long term, Ryan, which is more typical of what you think that the product mix, particularly I'm speaking about active adult is likely to be for your company? Are you managing it with the land that you're sort of purchasing today? Are you managing it to more like of a mix of 2024 or more of a mix of 2025?

Ryan，當您考慮長期管理業務時，您認為產品組合（特別是我所說的活躍成人）可能適合您的公司，這更典型？您正在用您今天購買的土地來管理它嗎？您是否將其管理得更像是 2024 年的混合，還是更像 2025 年的混合？

Yes, Stephen, we're still running the company and managing the land mix for it to be about 25% of the business. So the current mix in '24 is actually on the light side. And as these new communities where we're in a little bit of a gap out as those come online in 2025, you'll actually -- and Bob mentioned in his prepared remarks, you'll see the mix go back to our kind of typical contribution levels, which is in that 20 -- roughly 25% overall business.

是的，史蒂芬，我們仍在經營公司並管理土地組合，使其佔業務的 25% 左右。所以24年目前的組合其實是偏輕的。隨著這些新社區在 2025 年上線，我們與這些社區的上線有一點差距，實際上，鮑勃在他準備好的講話中提到，你會看到混合回到我們的類型典型的貢獻水平，即整體業務的20% 至25% 左右。

Got you. And certainly, as it relates to orders. Okay. I got you. That's helpful.

明白你了。當然，因為它與訂單有關。好的。我接到你了。這很有幫助。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

I was wondering if you could talk about stick and brick costs in the quarter and then assumptions for 4Q. And it seems like lumber may have been kind of a good guy for part of this year on a year-over-year basis, but it's kind of ticked up recently. Just wondering if you could remind us your lag on lumber prices and any thoughts there?

我想知道您是否可以談談本季的棒和磚成本，然後是第四季度的假設。與去年同期相比，木材在今年的部分時間似乎表現不錯，但最近有所回升。只是想知道您是否可以提醒我們您對木材價格的滯後以及對此有何想法？

Thanks for the question. To be honest, we've experienced minimal inflation on our vertical costs this year. We're running right at $80 a square foot, which is consistent with the last three quarters. And actually consistent with the third quarter of last year. So when we look at it for the full year, we expect kind of a very low single-digit inflation on our vertical costs.

謝謝你的提問。老實說，今年我們的垂直成本通膨很小。我們的運行價格為每平方英尺 80 美元，與過去三個季度的情況一致。而且實際上和去年第三季是一致的。因此，當我們審視全年情況時，我們預計垂直成本的通膨率將非常低。

Anthony, as it relates to lumber, it varies by market. Most of our lumber, we buy on a 13-week trailing random length average and effectively helps lock in the margin at the time of contract with the customer so that we're not experiencing margin volatility during the build process.

安東尼，就木材而言，它因市場而異。我們的大部分木材都是按照 13 週追蹤隨機長度平均值購買的，這有助於在與客戶簽訂合約時有效地鎖定保證金，這樣我們就不會在建造過程中遇到保證金波動。

Got it. Got it. And then just following up on resale inventories. Ryan, I think you indicated inventories were kind of maybe getting a little bit better or normalizing a bit compared to three months ago in Florida. And I was just wondering if there were other markets, Texas or out West, where resale inventories are a little bit elevated or conversely, where markets where inventories feel tight?

知道了。知道了。然後只是跟進轉售庫存。瑞安，我認為您表示與三個月前佛羅裡達州相比，庫存可能會改善或正常化。我只是想知道是否有其他市場，德克薩斯州或西部地區，轉售庫存略有增加，或者相反，哪些市場庫存感到緊張？

Yes. I wouldn't highlight any other markets in terms of kind of inventory issues. You mentioned Texas. Texas is a market that's been a little choppier in the last few months. It's a place where there's probably more competition.

是的。我不會在庫存問題方面強調其他市場。你提到了德克薩斯州。德州的市場在過去幾個月有點波動。這是一個可能存在更多競爭的地方。

Every major builder is in every market in Texas. So there are a few markets there. Austin is the one I'd highlight that had unprecedented price appreciation that there were really high-paying jobs that went there post COVID with a lot of relocations and there were short inventories. So we saw maybe less than kind of moderated pace around price appreciation.

每個主要建築商都分佈在德克薩斯州的每個市場。所以那裡有一些市場。我要強調的是，奧斯汀的房價出現了前所未有的上漲，在新冠疫情之後，那裡確實有高薪工作崗位，大量搬遷，而且庫存短缺。因此，我們看到價格上漲的步伐可能不太緩和。

So I think there's a few markets there that are probably still going through some price normalization, those are markets that I think will continue to fare well. There's good jobs there. Taxes are relatively affordable and there are places where people want to be. So we're still confident in our Texas markets as well.

因此，我認為有一些市場可能仍在經歷一定的價格正常化，我認為這些市場將繼續表現良好。那裡有很好的工作機會。稅收相對便宜，而且有人們想去的地方。因此，我們對德州市場仍然充滿信心。

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這很有幫助。我會把它翻過來。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

I wanted to circle back a little bit to the cadence of incentives during the quarter. I think you broadly kind of described incentives as having remained elevated throughout the quarter you expect it to remain elevated into the fourth quarter. I was curious on where incentives began 3Q and where it ended. And if there was any decline in incentives in September, as you said, you had a particularly strong demand.

我想回顧一下本季激勵措施的節奏。我認為您大致將激勵措施描述為整個季度都保持在較高水平，您預計它將在第四季度保持較高水平。我很好奇第三季的激勵措施從哪裡開始，又從哪裡結束。正如您所說，如果 9 月的激勵措施有所下降，那麼您的需求就會特別強勁。

Yes, Mike, I think you can see from the guide that we've given, and we've -- not suggested, we've told you we see elevated incentives continuing. We didn't really see those mitigate during the quarter. And it's worth highlighting the rate that we're offering is below market already. And so the movement in the 30-year doesn't really influence us as much as what do we need to do both competitively and from the affordability construct for the consumer.

是的，麥克，我想你可以從我們提供的指南中看到，我們已經——不是建議，我們已經告訴你，我們看到激勵措施的持續增加。我們並沒有真正看到這些在本季有所緩解。值得強調的是，我們提供的利率已經低於市場水準。因此，30 年的變化對我們的影響並不大，我們需要在競爭和消費者的承受能力上做些什麼。

So if you see a 25 basis point move in the 30-year, we're already 100-plus inside that with our incentive programs and so what we're telling you is that the consumer needs some help with the affordability and the incentives in the way we're getting there.

因此，如果你看到 30 年內的 25 個基點變動，我們的激勵計劃已經超過 100 個基點，所以我們要告訴你的是，消費者在負擔能力和激勵方面需要一些幫助。

Right. I guess, what I'm getting at is, typically, when you do see an increase in demand, maybe it's not the initial reaction, but over, let's say, several months, I believe it is kind of normal to see incentives start to tick down? Is that overall higher level of demand kind of works through?

正確的。我想，我的意思是，通常，當你確實看到需求增加時，也許這不是最初的反應，但經過幾個月，我相信看到激勵措施開始出現是很正常的。整體更高水準的需求是否能夠實現？

So I'm curious, that's really what I'm more curious about maybe if it's not the first month of a reaction given that you said it was really more concentrated in September in terms of the improvement in demand if that were to have been more sustained over the following months, if you would normally see that.

所以我很好奇，這確實是我更好奇的地方，也許這不是反應的第一個月，因為你說，就需求的改善而言，九月份確實更加集中，如果情況更嚴重的話如果你通常會看到的話，在接下來的幾個月裡會持續下去。

I think what I would characterize as a typical decline in incentives, at least for the move-up buyers perhaps which aren't helped as much by that rate buy down. That's what I'm more curious about, I guess.

我認為，我將其描述為典型的激勵措施下降，至少對於升級的買家來說，他們可能沒有受到降價購買的幫助。我想這才是我比較好奇的地方。

Yes. We'll have to see. I think the answer to that, we -- rates ticked back up, right? So at the end of the day, we'll see if the Fed continues down a path to reduce interest rates. And Ryan said in his prepared comments, we think that the selling season is going to be a better indicator of overall demand. And to your point, if the rate environment improves, and demand is strong. Yes, I think we'd have an opportunity to reduce our action.

是的。我們得看看。我認為答案是，我們——利率回升，對吧？因此，最終，我們將看看聯準會是否會繼續降低利率。瑞安在他準備好的評論中表示，我們認為銷售季節將是整體需求的更好指標。就你的觀點而言，如果利率環境改善且需求強勁。是的，我認為我們有機會減少我們的行動。

Right. Secondly, just on -- from a regional perspective, you've kind of highlighted the inventory dynamics in Florida and Texas. I'm curious also for those markets relative to the rest of your markets, if you've seen an increase in incentives in those markets, just given all the hype around resale inventory levels, if you've seen a significant or unusual increase in incentives in those markets, let's say, today versus six months ago?

正確的。其次，從區域角度來看，您強調了佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的庫存動態。我也對這些市場相對於其他市場感到好奇，如果您看到這些市場的激勵措施有所增加，考慮到圍繞轉售庫存水平的所有炒作，如果您看到了轉售庫存水平的顯著或不尋常的增加比方說，今天與六個月前相比，這些市場的誘因如何？

Yes. Texas, Mike, is the market that I would tell you has probably been more competitive just because of the number of competitors that are there. I don't -- it's nothing that I would suggest is -- it wouldn't anything we've done is out of line or is on the level of making us uncomfortable, but probably higher incentives in the Texas markets than what we saw earlier in the year.

是的。麥克，我想告訴你，德州的市場可能競爭更加激烈，因為那裡的競爭對手數量眾多。我不認為——我不建議這樣做——我們所做的任何事情都不會超出標準，或達到讓我們不舒服的程度，但德州市場的激勵措施可能比我們看到的要高今年早些時候。

Other thing Bob just indicated, we'll see what the fourth quarter and provides is possibly, we see some reduction in interest rates, and that may give us the opportunity to back off of incentives a little bit.

鮑伯剛剛指出的另一件事是，我們將看看第四季度可能會提供什麼，我們會看到利率下降，這可能會讓我們有機會稍微放棄激勵措施。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

You're going to stick with the margin dynamics? So Bob, I think last quarter, when you guided to kind of the sequential step down in margins in 3Q and 4Q relative to 2Q, you already anticipated the mix dynamic. So is the mix even different and more of a headwind in 4Q than you originally anticipated? Or is the right way to think about the sequential and 4Q gross margin really you already -- you've highlighted the mix, that's what it is, but the delta versus your prior guide is really the incentive load?

您會堅持保證金動態嗎？所以鮑勃，我認為上個季度，當您指導第三季度和第四季度的利潤率相對於第二季度連續下降時，您已經預料到了混合動態。那麼，第四季度的情況是否比您最初預期的更加不同，並且更具逆風？或者是思考連續毛利率和第四季度毛利率的正確方法嗎？

Yes. On balance, it's not changing dramatically. We've got a little bit more Western market business. Again, the strength there on a relative basis, it really relates to the incentives or as we've highlighted a couple of times now, it's a challenging affordability equation, and we're looking to meet it so to return our assets.

是的。總的來說，它並沒有發生巨大的變化。我們有更多的西方市場業務。再說一遍，相對而言，它的實力確實與激勵措施有關，或者正如我們現在多次強調的那樣，這是一個具有挑戰性的負擔能力方程，我們希望滿足它，以便歸還我們的資產。

Yes. That makes sense. And then the follow-up is really drilling down on incentives. If you can provide a little more color, you talked about the 70% on total incentive load and that's up 70 bps sequentially. But in the commentary, it seems like suggested it's really that the incremental change may have been predominantly on entry level.

是的。這是有道理的。然後後續行動實際上是深入研究激勵措施。如果您能提供更多的信息，您談到了總激勵負載的 70%，並且連續上升了 70 個基點。但在評論中，似乎表明增量變化可能主要集中在入門級。

Can you help us quantify what the incentives on entry-level are or were in 3Q and in your 4Q guide and maybe how that compares quarter-on-quarter?

您能否幫助我們量化第三季和第四季指南中針對入門級的激勵措施以及與季度相比如何？

Yes, that's probably a slice of the bill only a little too thin. Again, affordability is a challenge for all of our consumers. The entry level feels it first and the most. And so it's going to be a little bit richer for them, but I wouldn't want to parse it quite that thinly.

是的，這可能只是帳單的一小部分，只是有點太薄了。同樣，負擔能力對我們所有的消費者來說都是一個挑戰。入門級是最先感受到這一點的。所以這對他們來說會更豐富一些，但我不想把它解析得那麼薄弱。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

I want to go back to Florida again. sort of bigger picture and longer term. So obviously, there's been some talk about intermediate-term migration patterns changing there, whether that's the frequency of weather or insurance conditions, type prices.

我想再回到佛羅裡達。有點更大的前景和更長遠的目標。顯然，有人談論那裡的中期移民模式發生變化，無論是天氣頻率還是保險條件、類型價格。

So if you're thinking about investing capital, say, in '27 or beyond in new deals there, do these dynamics impact your thinking, especially given those markets are competitive, too, as you're talking about Texas do you require a higher rate of return to invest there?

因此，如果您正在考慮投資資本，比如說，在27 年或之後在那裡進行新交易，這些動態是否會影響您的想法，特別是考慮到這些市場也具有競爭力，當您談論德克薩斯州時，您是否需要更高的投資報酬率在那裡？

How do you think about sort of beyond the very -- the intermediate term, the short term in terms of where you place capital regionally, if you think these dynamics in Florida might be changing? Or are you sticking with it?

如果您認為佛羅裡達州的這些動態可能正在發生變化，那麼您如何看待超越中期、短期的區域資本配置？還是你還在堅持嗎？

Yes, Carl, thanks for the question. Florida has been very good to our business. We do have a lot of capital invested there today. So for what it's worth. We'd like to continue to see Florida perform well for the investments that we've already made and the capital that's already been committed. As it relates to future stuff I think we'll take inputs as they come from the market, we're not going to blindly continue to go after things if we're seeing a change in market conditions.

是的，卡爾，謝謝你的提問。佛羅裡達州對我們的業務非常有利。今天我們確實在那裡投入了大量資金。所以它值得。我們希望繼續看到佛羅裡達州在我們已經進行的投資和已經承諾的資本方面表現良好。由於它與未來的事情有關，我認為我們會從市場中獲取投入，如果我們看到市場狀況發生變化，我們不會盲目地繼續追求。

I think that's one of the disciplines that we have in our underwriting criteria. I still remain really bullish on Florida. And in fact, if you look at the parts of Florida where we're investing, they're a little more inland, they're on higher ground. They're not places that are being impacted by the things that you see on TV.

我認為這是我們承保標準中的紀律之一。我仍然非常看好佛羅裡達州。事實上，如果你看看我們投資的佛羅裡達州部分地區，你會發現它們更內陸一些，地勢更高。它們不是受到您在電視上看到的事物影響的地方。

Some of the things that you see on TV are the things that are right on the beach, they are the coastal areas, there are homes that were built in the '70s and '80s, not at the current code. It's devastating. It's terrible. I don't think anybody would want it to happen. But my sense is our business is not probably directly impacted by some of the things that you're seeing on TV.

你在電視上看到的一些東西就在海灘上，它們是沿海地區，有一些建於 70 年代和 80 年代的房屋，而不是按照現行規範建造的房屋。這是毀滅性的。太可怕了。我想沒有人會希望這樣的事情發生。但我的感覺是，我們的業務可能不會直接受到您在電視上看到的某些內容的影響。

I'd highlight that some of the moves that you're seeing are kind of within Florida. So they're intra Florida moves as opposed to out of Florida moves. Florida remains a place that's got great quality of life. Maybe it's not as favorable of the deal as it used to be, but still relatively affordable. There's good jobs there. There's no state income taxes. So there are some offsets to some of the things like rising insurance rates and the like.

我想強調的是，你看到的一些舉動是在佛羅裡達州發生的。因此，它們是佛羅裡達州內的搬遷，而不是佛羅裡達州外的搬遷。佛羅裡達州仍然是一個生活品質很高的地方。也許交易不像以前那麼有利，但仍然相對實惠。那裡有很好的工作機會。沒有州所得稅。因此，保險費率上漲等一些因素會產生一些抵銷作用。

I appreciate that. And then my second question is off balance sheet, 56% off balance sheet now or option lots and the 70% of the goal. Is it still your intention to bridge that gap via effective land banking and as opposed to a safe farmer options? And what are you seeing right now in the land banking market in terms of pricing terms? Have the negotiations, the discussions you've had with the large bankers kind of gone as you expected? Or are you seeing challenges there that you didn't expect?

我很欣賞這一點。然後我的第二個問題是資產負債表外的問題，現在資產負債表外的 56% 或選擇權批次以及目標的 70%。您是否仍然打算透過有效的土地儲備而不是安全的農民選擇來彌補這一差距？您現在對土地儲備市場的定價有何看法？您與大銀行家進行的談判、討論是否如您預期的那樣進行了？還是您看到了意想不到的挑戰？

Yeah, Carl, we're making nice progress on our land options up to 56% in the quarter. We've highlighted it will be a journey. We think it will probably take somewhere around 3 to 3.5 years in total as we cycle through our land portfolio to accrete up to the 70% level.

是的，卡爾，我們的土地選擇權在本季度取得了很大進展，高達 56%。我們強調這將是一趟旅程。我們認為，當我們循環利用我們的土地組合以增加到 70% 的水平時，總共可能需要大約 3 到 3.5 年的時間。

But we're clicking off the milestones as intended. So I'm really pleased with how our land teams are performing on that front. We'd expect 50% of our land to be with farmer options or land seller options. The other 20% that we're looking for to the option will come from bankers. Our land banking team has done a really nice job building out a portfolio of bankers that we're working with.

但我們正在按預期完成里程碑。因此，我對我們的地面團隊在這方面的表現感到非常滿意。我們預計 50% 的土地將由農民或土地賣家選擇。我們正在尋找的另外 20% 的選擇權將來自銀行家。我們的土地儲備團隊在建立與我們合作的銀行家投資組合方面做得非常出色。

They're consistent. They're behaving in a very predictable way. And it's working out incredibly well for us. Interest rates, their money is tied to kind of what you see in the interest rate environment more broadly in the market.

他們是一致的。他們的行為方式非常可預測。這對我們來說效果非常好。利率，他們的錢與你在市場上更廣泛的利率環境中看到的東西掛鉤。

So we got a little bit of improvement on some stuff that we did in the third quarter. We'll have to see how things go in the fourth quarter depending on what happens with rates, but we're pleased with how the land banking program is working.

因此，我們在第三季所做的一些事情上得到了一些改進。我們必須根據利率的變化來看看第四季的情況如何，但我們對土地儲備計畫的運作方式感到滿意。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

First, a question on conversion rates. You guys talked about 5% to 10% growth annually. I think that included 2025. Just given where your backlog is trending, I think that would imply a pretty notable improvement in backlog conversion rate next year to grow closings 5% or more.

首先，關於轉換率的問題。你們談到每年 5% 到 10% 的成長。我認為這包括 2025 年。

So any commentary on -- is that where you're expecting an improvement in conversion rates? And then if so, maybe talk about the drivers of that, whether that be the improved cycle times that you guys referenced earlier or any additional spec any other drivers to call out?

那麼，您是否期望轉換率有所提升？如果是這樣，也許可以談談其驅動因素，這是否是你們之前提到的改進的周期時間，或者任何其他驅動因素需要指出的任何附加規格？

Yeah. Trevor, backlog conversion rate is something that's a number that can be impacted by two things. One, cycle time getting better or worse. We indicated in the prepared remarks, our cycle times will continue to come down. So we'll certainly get some benefit from that.

是的。 Trevor，待辦事項轉換率是一個可能受到兩件事影響的數字。第一，週期時間變得更好或更差。我們在準備好的發言中表示，我們的周期時間將繼續縮短。所以我們肯定會從中得到一些好處。

And then the other piece is spec inventory by the definition, those homes that are in production that are spec are not in backlog. So a lot of those will sell and convert in the same quarter and they won't show up in that metric.

根據定義，另一塊是規格庫存，那些正在生產的規格房屋沒有積壓。因此，其中許多將在同一季度出售和轉換，但不會出現在該指標中。

So I don't want to tell you how to run your models, but given the percentage of spec inventory that we're starting and selling, given the current interest rate environment, I think probably a better metric is to look at homes in production, total homes in production is a good indicator of whether or not we have the available homes to deliver into next year's closing volume.

因此，我不想告訴您如何運行模型，但考慮到我們正在啟動和銷售的規格庫存的百分比，考慮到當前的利率環境，我認為更好的衡量標準可能是查看生產中的房屋，正在建造房屋總數是衡量我們是否有可用房屋交付明年成交量的一個很好的指標。

Okay. Understood. And then I guess the second question then would be kind of following up on that, finished inventory, 1.4 finished specs per community. That's a little bit above your longer-term target number of one. Can you talk about how you feel about your current completed spec level and how you're thinking about spec production then moving forward?

好的。明白了。然後我想第二個問題將是對成品庫存、每個社區 1.4 個成品規格的後續。這比您的長期目標數字略高一點。您能談談您對目前完成的規格水平的感受以及您如何考慮規格生產然後繼續前進嗎？

Yeah. In the current environment where we're selling almost 40% of our business is coming through first time, which tends to be predominantly stocked or mostly stock. And in the current interest rate environment, we actually want higher spec inventory as a percentage of WIP than what we had historically pre-COVID operated that.

是的。在目前的環境下，我們幾乎 40% 的業務都是首次銷售，而且往往主要是庫存或大部分是庫存。在目前的利率環境下，我們實際上希望規格庫存佔在製品的百分比高於新冠疫情前的歷史水準。

So the things that you've heard us most recently talked about as being between 35% and 45% of total WIP. And at the end of this most recent quarter, we're at 42% of our total inventory in spec. So we feel like we're right in line there on the finish side, when we were operating in more of a build-to-order model, I think one per community was a pretty good number.

因此，您最近聽到我們談論的內容佔總 WIP 的 35% 到 45%。截至最近一個季度末，我們的規格庫存佔總庫存的 42%。因此，當我們更多地採用按訂單生產的模式進行運營時，我們覺得我們就在終點線，我認為每個社區一個是一個相當不錯的數字。

And we're not abandoning that. We're slightly over that at 1.4, but we don't feel that we have any inventory exposure that's got us uncomfortable at this point. We're selling over 50% of the homes that we're selling right now are selling at some form of as a spec. So they're at some form of kind of production moving through the pipeline. So we feel pretty good there as well.

我們不會放棄這一點。我們的比率略高於 1.4，但我們認為目前沒有任何庫存敞口讓我們感到不舒服。我們現在出售的房屋中，超過 50% 都是以某種形式的規格出售的。所以他們正在以某種形式進行生產。所以我們在那裡感覺也很好。

Okay. Makes sense. Good luck moving forward.

好的。有道理。祝你好運，繼續前進。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Last quarter, I want to say you guys mentioned that land costs were likely to trend up about high single digits in 2024. Just looking to confirm kind of how that trended in the third quarter, what's embedded in the fourth quarter guidance and then I know you're not necessarily talking 2025 now, but you do have some visibility here. So just curious as to whether that's a reasonable assumption to next year?

上個季度，我想說你們提到，到2024 年，土地成本可能會呈現高個位數成長。了你現在不一定在談論 2025 年，但你在這裡確實有一些可見性。所以只是好奇這對明年是否是一個合理的假設？

Yes. We did see high single-digit lot cost increase in Q3. We do see that in Q4. We have not provided a guide for '25, but we've said this before, our lot costs haven't decreased in more than a decade. Land is more expensive. And as we cycle through older land, the stuff coming on is more expensive we'll give some color as to what that means for '25 when we give our '25 guidance.

是的。我們確實看到第三季批量成本出現高單位數成長。我們確實在第四季度看到了這一點。我們還沒有提供25年的指南，但我們之前說過，我們的批量成本十多年來沒有下降。土地更貴。當我們在舊土地上騎行時，即將出現的東西會更加昂貴，當我們給出“25 年指導”時，我們將給出一些關於這對“25 年”意味著什麼的顏色。

No that's fair. And then just sticking to kind of housekeeping questions, and apologies if this was already covered, but just wanted to ask about options and lot premiums as a percent of ASP, want to say, last quarter, it was around $104,000. Just curious what that was in Q3 and then perhaps what's embedded in guidance for the fourth quarter?

不，這很公平。然後只是堅持一些內務問題，如果這已經涵蓋了，我們深表歉意，但只是想詢問期權和地塊溢價佔 ASP 的百分比，想說，上個季度約為 104,000 美元。只是好奇第三季的內容是什麼，然後也許第四季的指導包含了什麼內容？

Yes. We were 100 in Q3. So relatively consistent and that is embedded in our guide for Q4 as well. Worth it to highlight that a lot of that option revenue and lot premium comes from our move-up and active adult buyers. So you're at, call it, 60% of our business is driving most of that. And to further the comment that Ryan made earlier, that's not where we're doing most of the speculative building.

是的。第三季我們的排名是 100。因此相對一致，這也包含在我們的第四季指南中。值得強調的是，許多選擇權收入和地塊溢價來自我們的升級和活躍的成年買家。所以你可以這麼說，我們 60% 的業務正在推動其中的大部分。為了進一步闡述 Ryan 先前的評論，我們並不是在這方面進行大部分投機性建設。

No, it makes sense.

不，這是有道理的。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·博利，巴克萊銀行。

Back on that 5% to 10% growth that you kind of reiterated as the long-term target. I'm wondering if in fact, that is still the plan for 2025 specifically. And kind of to what extent you're willing to flex around that growth target, maybe depending on where rates are, or kind of general consumer demand is? And any thoughts around if there's a margin or incentive trade-off in your mind at which you might kind of dial back that volume growth?

回到您重申的 5% 到 10% 的長期目標。我想知道這是否仍然是 2025 年的具體計劃。您願意在多大程度上圍繞該成長目標進行調整，也許取決於利率或一般消費者需求的情況？您有什麼想法，是否存在利潤或激勵權衡，您可能會減少銷售成長？

Yeah, Matt, we haven't given a '25 guide. We'll do that at the end of next quarter. The long-term guide that we gave was meant to be that it was kind of a multiyear guide of how we're positioning the business and investing in land. So '25 specifically, will tell you more next quarter.

是的，馬特，我們還沒有提供 25 年指南。我們將在下個季度末做到這一點。我們提供的長期指南是關於我們如何定位業務和投資土地的多年指南。具體來說，25 年，我們會在下個季度告訴您更多。

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe one on the balance sheet. Just I think the net debt to cap of 1.4%. I'm curious if the kind of increase in land banking that you're targeting is actually playing into how you're managing the balance sheet here, if there is kind of a need to either hold on to more cash or kind of keep leverage low, if that is playing into it at all? Or just more generally, what would be your thoughts around kind of increasing that leverage back to prior levels?

好的。很公平。然後也許是資產負債表上的一項。只是我認為淨債務上限為1.4%。我很好奇，您所瞄準的土地儲備的增加是否實際上影響了您管理資產負債表的方式，是否需要持有更多現金或保持槓桿率低，如果這有影響的話？或者更一般地說，您對於將槓桿率提高到之前的水平有何想法？

Yes, Matt, we've talked about this a little bit, I think, on prior calls. And our view is we've got a view on how we're investing in the business, how we're growing the business. And that's driving what our capital needs are.

是的，馬特，我想我們在之前的通話中已經討論過這個問題。我們的觀點是，我們對如何投資業務、如何發展業務有自己的看法。這推動了我們的資本需求。

We then look to what operating cash flow is, how much of the business investment strategy we can finance with our own cash and with the operating cash flow. And then we go to kind of debt or other capital market mechanisms. I think the way to look at leverage is it's an outcome as opposed to it being a driver Bob, anything else to that there?

然後我們來看看經營現金流是什麼，我們可以用自己的現金和經營現金流為多少業務投資策略提供資金。然後我們討論債務或其他資本市場機制。我認為看待槓桿的方法是它是一個結果，而不是一個司機鮑勃，還有其他嗎？

No, other than to say in terms of land banking, specifically what it is really going to do is free up cash. As we increase the relative percentage of optionality, our balance sheet on a relative basis gets smaller. So it will give us more choices to Ryan's point about what to do with that cash.

不，除了土地儲備方面之外，具體而言，它真正要做的是釋放現金。隨著我們增加選擇性的相對百分比，我們的資產負債表相對而言會變小。因此，相對於瑞安的觀點，這將為我們提供更多關於如何使用這筆現金的選擇。

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Jim for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把會議轉回吉姆致閉幕詞。

Appreciate everybody's time today. We're certainly available as the day goes on for any additional questions. Otherwise, we'll look forward to speaking with you on our fourth quarter call. Thank you.

感謝大家今天的時間。隨著時間的推移，我們當然可以解答任何其他問題。否則，我們將期待在第四季度的電話會議上與您交談。謝謝。

And that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。