普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome everyone to the PulteGroup, Inc. Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup, Inc. 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

And I will now turn the conference over to James Zeumer, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 James Zeumer。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call to discuss PulteGroup's exceptional second quarter operating and financial results. Along with affirming the ongoing desire for homeownership and the strength of overall buyer demand, our second quarter numbers demonstrate the strategic value of PulteGroup's balanced and disciplined approach to the business.

早上好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 PulteGroup 出色的第二季度運營和財務業績。除了肯定人們對住房所有權的持續渴望和整體買家需求的強勁外，我們第二季度的數據還證明了 PulteGroup 平衡和嚴格的業務方法的戰略價值。

Joining me on today's call to discuss our Q2 results are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O’'Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jim Ossowski, Senior VP of Finance. A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We'll post an audio replay of this call later today.

總裁兼首席執行官瑞安·馬歇爾 (Ryan Marshall) 參加了今天的電話會議，討論我們第二季度的業績。 Bob Oâ'Shaughnessy，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Jim Ossowski，財務高級副總裁。我們的收益發布副本和今天上午的演示幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com 上。我們將在今天晚些時候發布本次通話的音頻重播。

I want to inform everyone on today's call that today's discussion includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

我想在今天的電話會議上通知大家，今天的討論包括有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們評論中建議的結果存在重大差異。今天的收益發布和隨附的演示幻燈片中總結了可能影響未來業績的最重要的風險因素。這些風險因素和其他關鍵信息在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan Marshall. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安·馬歇爾。瑞安？

Thanks, James, and good morning. As you read in this morning's press release, Q2 was an outstanding quarter for PulteGroup as we posted strong financial results throughout our P&L, balance sheet and cash flow statement. In fact, our second quarter revenues, gross and operating margins and net income were at or are approaching all-time highs for our second quarter.

謝謝，詹姆斯，早上好。正如您在今天早上的新聞稿中讀到的那樣，第二季度對於 PulteGroup 來說是一個出色的季度，因為我們在損益表、資產負債表和現金流量表中公佈了強勁的財務業績。事實上，我們第二季度的收入、毛利率、營業利潤率以及淨利潤均達到或接近第二季度的歷史最高水平。

Our record financial performance in turn drove strong cash flows that helped raise our cash position to $1.8 billion, while dropping our net debt-to-capital ratio to almost 0. I am really proud of our homebuilding and financial services teams for delivering these great results, which are even more impressive given the variable market conditions we've operated in for the past 12 months.

我們創紀錄的財務業績反過來又推動了強勁的現金流，幫助我們的現金狀況提高到 18 億美元，同時將我們的淨債務與資本比率降至幾乎為 0。我為我們的住宅建築和金融服務團隊取得了這些出色的成果感到非常自豪考慮到我們過去 12 個月所處的市場條件多變，這一點更加令人印象深刻。

Within these complicated market dynamics, I believe PulteGroup's operating and financial success reflects the balanced and disciplined approach we take in running our homebuilding business.

在這些複雜的市場動態中，我相信 PulteGroup 的運營和財務成功反映了我們在經營住宅建築業務時採取的平衡和嚴格的方法。

We continue to successfully implement both a build-to-order model that serves our move-up and active adult buyers in combination with a spec-based model, primarily within our first-time buyer communities. Our spec production is most heavily weighted toward our Centex branded communities, which operate under a managed spec production model. In other words, homes are started to spec, but we have aligned the starts cadence with our sales pace. Given Centex' focus on serving the needs of first-time buyers, our long-term plan is to maintain a spec build model in these communities.

我們繼續成功實施按訂單生產的模式，為我們的升級和活躍的成年買家提供服務，並與基於規格的模式相結合，主要是在我們的首次買家社區中。我們的規格生產主要針對 Centex 品牌社區，該社區在託管規格生產模式下運營。換句話說，房屋已開始規格化，但我們已將開工節奏與銷售節奏保持一致。鑑於 Centex 專注於滿足首次購買者的需求，我們的長期計劃是在這些社區中維持規範構建模型。

By being more balanced across build-to-order and spec production, we maintain a more consistent cadence of home starts, meet buyer demand more effectively, and we achieved the critical objective of turning our assets in support of higher returns. You can see the practical application of this managed approach in our Q2 numbers that specs totaled 36% of units under production at quarter end. Of these units, we averaged just over one finished spec per community, which is in line with our stated goal.

通過在按訂單生產和規格生產之間更加平衡，我們保持了更一致的家庭開工節奏，更有效地滿足買家需求，並且我們實現了將資產用於支持更高回報的關鍵目標。您可以在我們的第二季度數據中看到這種管理方法的實際應用，截至季度末，生產中的規格總數為 36%。在這些單元中，我們平均為每個社區提供了一個以上的成品規格，這符合我們既定的目標。

Along with the balance between our build-to-order and spec production, we are appropriately diversified across all the buyer groups consistent with our long-term goal of having 40% first-time, 35% move-up and 25% active adult. Why is this important? The different financial profiles associated with each buyer group can mean different responses to changing market dynamics, such as today's rising rate environment, which may hinder first-time buyers, but be less of a headwind among active adult consumers.

除了按訂單生產和規格生產之間的平衡外，我們還對所有買家群體進行了適當的多元化，這符合我們的長期目標，即 40% 的首次購買者、35% 的升級者和 25% 的活躍成人者。為什麼這很重要？與每個買家群體相關的不同財務狀況可能意味著對不斷變化的市場動態的不同反應，例如當今不斷上漲的利率環境，這可能會阻礙首次購房者，但對活躍的成年消費者來說不會產生太大的阻力。

Being balanced across build-to-order, spec and buyer groups is also an important underpinning to the extremely high gross margins we've been able to maintain. More directly, we have enough production to meet buyer demand, but not so much that we are no longer selling from a position of strength.

按訂單生產、規格和買家群體之間的平衡也是我們能夠維持極高毛利率的重要基礎。更直接地說，我們有足夠的產量來滿足買家的需求，但還沒有多到我們不再以強勢地位進行銷售。

I think we've achieved the right mix as we increased orders and closings, all while 2/3 of our divisions were still able to raise prices in the quarter. Along these same lines, we continue to see pricing opportunities within our core build-to-order business that primarily serves our move-up and active adult buyers.

我認為，隨著訂單和成交量的增加，我們已經實現了正確的組合，同時我們 2/3 的部門仍然能夠在本季度提高價格。沿著同樣的思路，我們繼續在我們的核心按訂單生產業務中看到定價機會，該業務主要為我們的升級和活躍的成年買家服務。

In our most recent quarter, options and lot premiums exceeded $100,000 per home. These are high-margin dollars that are not as prevalent among first-time buyers and certainly were an important driver of the strong 29.6% gross margin we reported in Q2. While the market started slowing in 2022, I said that we couldn't be margin proud, but rather we had to find price and turn our assets.

在最近一個季度，每套房屋的期權和地塊溢價超過 100,000 美元。這些都是高利潤的美元，在首次購房者中並不常見，但無疑是我們在第二季度報告的 29.6% 毛利率的重要推動力。雖然市場在 2022 年開始放緩，但我說我們不能以利潤為傲，而是必須找到價格並周轉我們的資產。

Delivering 24% growth in Q2 orders, and as Bob will detail, guiding to margins of 29% or better for the remainder of the year, we are achieving both high margins and high asset turns, which drove our 32% return on equity.

第二季度訂單增長 24%，鮑勃將詳細介紹，今年剩餘時間的利潤率將達到 29% 或更高，我們實現了高利潤率和高資產周轉率，這推動了我們 32% 的股本回報率。

Beyond the company's specific benefits we are realizing from how we run our business, we appreciate the favorable supply-demand dynamics resulting from the limited stock of existing houses available for sale. National Association of Realtors' data for June showed seasonally adjusted existing home sales of $4.2 million, which is down a staggering 1 million homes from June of last year.

除了我們從業務運營方式中實現的公司具體利益之外，我們還欣賞現有待售房屋庫存有限所帶來的有利供需動態。全國房地產經紀人協會 6 月份的數據顯示，經季節性調整後的現有房屋銷售額為 420 萬美元，比去年 6 月份減少了 100 萬套，令人震驚。

As has been well reported, there are millions of existing homeowners who are sitting on low rate mortgages established before the most recent cycle of Fed rate hikes. I recently saw an FHA graph that showed that more than 50% of current mortgage holders have a rate below 4%. I haven't seen any rate forecast that show the country getting back to 4% mortgages anytime soon. So it's likely that existing homes remain in short supply for the foreseeable future.

正如廣泛報導的那樣，有數百萬現有房主持有在美聯儲最近一次加息週期之前建立的低利率抵押貸款。我最近看到聯邦住房管理局 (FHA) 的圖表顯示，超過 50% 的當前抵押貸款持有人的利率低於 4%。我還沒有看到任何利率預測表明該國抵押貸款利率會很快恢復到 4%。因此，在可預見的未來，現有房屋可能仍然供不應求。

FHA data, along with mortgage rate forecasts, suggest that there may be an extended period during which mortgage rates stay above 5%, which likely prevents an oversupply of existing homes being released into the market. Through the first 6 months of 2023, we generated $1.3 billion of net income and $1.5 billion of cash flow from operations. As a result, we increased our cash position by almost $700 million while returning almost $500 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. I think these numbers clearly demonstrate the powerful results our company is delivering.

FHA 數據以及抵押貸款利率預測表明，抵押貸款利率可能會在較長一段時間內保持在 5% 以上，這可能會阻止現有房屋供應過剩進入市場。 2023 年前 6 個月，我們的淨利潤為 13 億美元，運營現金流為 15 億美元。結果，我們的現金頭寸增加了近 7 億美元，同時通過股票回購和股息向股東返還近 5 億美元。我認為這些數字清楚地表明了我們公司正在交付的強大成果。

With the backlog of $8.2 billion worth of homes to be built, improving cycle times and a solid land supply, we are well positioned to deliver even stronger performance over the remainder of 2023.

憑藉價值 82 億美元的待建房屋積壓、週期時間的縮短和穩定的土地供應，我們已做好充分準備，在 2023 年剩餘時間內實現更強勁的業績。

Now let me turn the call over to Bob for a detailed review of the quarter. Bob?

現在讓我將電話轉給鮑勃，以詳細審查本季度的情況。鮑勃？

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. Our second quarter numbers speak for themselves in terms of demonstrating the strength of our operations and in turn, overall housing demand to sell just dive right in. Our second quarter home sale revenues totaled $4.1 billion, an increase of 8% over last year. Higher revenues for the quarter were driven by a 5% increase in closings to 7,518 homes in combination with a 3% increase in average sales price to $540,000. Our ability to meet stronger demand in the period with available spec inventory allowed us to slightly exceed our prior closing guidance.

謝謝瑞安，早上好。我們第二季度的數字不言而喻，證明了我們的運營實力，反過來，整體住房銷售需求也隨之猛增。我們第二季度的房屋銷售收入總計 41 億美元，比去年增長 8%。本季度收入增加的原因是成交量增長 5%，達到 7,518 套，平均售價增長 3%，達到 540,000 美元。我們有能力利用可用的規格庫存來滿足這一時期更強勁的需求，這使我們能夠略微超出之前的成交指引。

For the quarter, our mix of closings was comprised of 41% first-time buyers, 34% move-up buyers and 25% active adult buyers. The breakdown of our business remains in line with our stated targets of 40% first time, 35% move-up and 25% active adult.

本季度，我們的成交組合包括 41% 的首次購房者、34% 的升級買家和 25% 的活躍成年買家。我們的業務細分仍然符合我們既定的目標，即 40% 為首次、35% 為升級、25% 為成人活躍。

In the second quarter of last year, our closing mix was 36% first time, 38% move-up and 26% active adult. Our net new orders in the second quarter increased 24% over last year to 7,947 homes. The double-digit increase in our orders benefited from the overall strength of market demand in the period along with our ability to capture this demand through a 14% increase in our average community count to 903 neighborhoods.

去年第二季度，我們的期末組合為首次用戶佔 36%，升級用戶佔 38%，成人活躍用戶佔 26%。我們第二季度的淨新訂單比去年增加 24%，達到 7,947 套。我們訂單的兩位數增長得益於這一時期市場需求的整體強勁，以及我們通過將平均社區數量增加 14% 至 903 個社區來滿足這一需求的能力。

The strength of consumer demand is also evident in our cancellation rate. Cancellations as a percentage of beginning period backlog was 9% in this quarter, which is down almost 350 basis points on a sequential basis from the first quarter. The 24% increase in our second quarter net new orders reflect an increase in our absorption pace to 2.9 homes per month of 2.7 homes per month last year and resulted in higher net new orders across all buyer groups.

消費者需求的強勁也從我們的取消率中可見一斑。本季度取消訂單佔期初積壓訂單的百分比為 9%，比第一季度環比下降了近 350 個基點。第二季度淨新訂單增長 24%，反映出我們的吸收速度從去年每月 2.7 套增加到每月 2.9 套，並導致所有買家群體的淨新訂單增加。

In the period, net new orders from first-time buyers increased 28% over the prior year to 3,150 homes. Orders for move-up buyers increased 33%, 2,897 homes and orders from active adult buyers increased 7% to 1,900 homes. The year-over-year increase in first-time buyer orders shows that our homes continue to offer a compelling value and meet the affordability requirements of this buyer group. At the same time, our higher net new orders among move-up and active adult buyers is a positive development and a test to the broad mix strength of housing demand.

在此期間，首次購房者的淨新訂單比上年增加 28%，達到 3,150 套。升級買家的訂單增加了 33%，達到 2,897 套房屋，而活躍的成年買家的訂單增加了 7%，達到 1,900 套房屋。首次買家訂單的同比增長表明，我們的房屋繼續提供令人信服的價值，並滿足該買家群體的負擔能力要求。與此同時，我們在升級和活躍的成年買家中增加的淨新訂單是一個積極的發展，也是對住房需求整體實力的考驗。

Consistent with our prior guidance, we expect year-over-year community count growth of 5% to 10% in the third and fourth quarters, each as compared to the comparable prior year period. Our backlog at the end of the second quarter was 13,588 homes with a value of $8.2 billion. In the second quarter of last year, our backlog stood at 19,176 homes valued at a record peak of $11.6 billion.

與我們之前的指導一致，我們預計第三季度和第四季度的社區數量同比增長 5% 至 10%，與去年同期相比。截至第二季度末，我們的積壓房屋數量為 13,588 套，價值 82 億美元。去年第二季度，我們的積壓房屋數量為 19,176 套，價值創紀錄的 116 億美元。

We ended the second quarter with a total of 16,740 homes under construction, of which approximately 6,000 or 36% were spec. We continue to closely manage spec production as total specs under construction at quarter end were down 11% from last year. Finished specs are also consistent with our historical carrier rate as we ended the quarter with about 1 finished spec per community.

截至第二季度末，我們共有 16,740 套在建住宅，其中約 6,000 套（即 36%）為規格住宅。我們繼續密切管理規格生產，季度末在建規格總數較去年下降 11%。成品規格也與我們的歷史承運商率一致，因為我們在本季度結束時每個社區大約有 1 個成品規格。

In the second quarter, we started approximately 7,400 homes, which is up 41% compared to the first quarter of this year. Given the strength of PulteGroup's year-to-date orders and deliveries, coupled with the status of our backlog and production universe, we're establishing a full year 2023 delivery target of 29,500 homes. Of this total, we would expect to deliver between 7,000 and 7,400 homes in the third quarter. Our third quarter and full year delivery targets are benefiting from roof of construction cycle times as our operations are realizing meaningful improvements on cycle times at homes they are starting today.

第二季度，我們開工了約 7,400 套房屋，比今年第一季度增長了 41%。鑑於 PulteGroup 年初至今的訂單和交付量，加上我們的積壓訂單和生產範圍的狀況，我們制定了 2023 年全年交付 29,500 套房屋的目標。其中，我們預計第三季度將交付 7,000 至 7,400 套房屋。我們的第三季度和全年交付目標受益於屋頂施工週期時間，因為我們的運營正在實現今天開始的房屋週期時間的有意義的改進。

Based on the mix of backlog loans we expect to deliver in the third and fourth quarters, coupled with the anticipated spec closings, we are projecting in those periods, we expect the average sales price on third and fourth quarter closings to be approximately $540,000.

根據我們預計在第三和第四季度交付的積壓貸款組合，再加上預期的規格交割，我們預計在這些時期，我們預計第三和第四季度交割的平均售價約為 540,000 美元。

Turning to margins. Our reported gross margin in the second quarter was 29.6%. The improvement in our margin as compared to our previous guide was due to improved pricing on spec sales and increased closings from our higher-margin markets, each as compared to a prior estimates. In addition, as we discussed on our prior earnings call, our aggregate gross margins are benefiting from our move-up and active adult business where profitability is holding up better.

轉向邊緣。我們報告的第二季度毛利率為 29.6%。與之前的指南相比，我們的利潤率有所提高，這是由於規格銷售定價的提高以及利潤率較高的市場的成交量增加，兩者均與之前的估計相比。此外，正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上討論的那樣，我們的總毛利率受益於我們的升級和活躍的成人業務，其盈利能力保持得更好。

Based on current market dynamics, we expect to maintain this strong margin position throughout the remainder of '23 and expect our gross margin to be in the range of 29.0% to 29.5% in both the third and fourth quarters of this year. As we experienced in the second quarter, the actual weeks of deliveries, both in terms of geography and buyer groups, may impact our reported numbers.

根據當前的市場動態，我們預計在 2023 年剩餘時間內將保持這種強勁的利潤率地位，並預計今年第三和第四季度的毛利率將在 29.0% 至 29.5% 的範圍內。正如我們在第二季度所經歷的那樣，實際交付週數（無論是地理位置還是買家群體）都可能會影響我們報告的數字。

Our reported SG&A expense in the second quarter was $315 million or 7.8% of home sale revenues and included a $65 million pretax insurance benefit recorded in the period. In the second quarter of last year, our SG&A expense was $351 million or 9.3% of home sale revenues.

我們報告的第二季度 SG&A 費用為 3.15 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 7.8%，其中包括該期間記錄的 6500 萬美元稅前保險福利。去年第二季度，我們的 SG&A 費用為 3.51 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.3%。

Based on our delivery targets for the remainder of the year, we expect SG&A expense to be in the range of 9.0% to 9.5% of home sale revenues in the third quarter in the range of 8% to 8.5% of home sale revenues in the fourth quarter.

根據我們今年剩餘時間的交付目標，我們預計第三季度的銷售及管理費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 9.0% 至 9.5%，2019 年第三季度的房屋銷售收入將佔 8% 至 8.5%。第四季度。

Second quarter pretax income generated by our financial services operations increased 16% over last year to $46 million. Pricing conditions remain highly competitive in the mortgage industry, but quarterly earnings benefited from improved profitability within our title and insurance operations. Capture rate in the second quarter improved to 80% compared with 78% last year. Our reported tax expense in the second quarter was $233 million or an effective tax rate of 24.4%. We expect our tax rate for the remainder of '23 to be 24.5%. On the bottom line, our reported second quarter net income was a record $740 million or $3.21 per share. This was up from last year's reported net income of $652 million or $2.73 per share.

第二季度我們的金融服務業務產生的稅前收入比去年同期增長 16%，達到 4600 萬美元。抵押貸款行業的定價條件仍然具有高度競爭性，但季度收益受益於我們產權和保險業務盈利能力的提高。第二季度的捕獲率從去年的 78% 提高到 80%。我們第二季度報告的稅費為 2.33 億美元，有效稅率為 24.4%。我們預計 23 年剩餘時間的稅率為 24.5%。總而言之，我們報告的第二季度淨利潤達到創紀錄的 7.4 億美元，即每股 3.21 美元。這高於去年報告的淨利潤 6.52 億美元或每股 2.73 美元。

Capitalizing on our outstanding financial results and resulting cash flows, we repurchased 3.7 million common shares in the quarter at a cost of $250 million at an average price of $68.31 per share. Through the first 6 months of '23, we have used $400 million to repurchase 6.4 million shares or 2.8% of our common shares outstanding.

利用我們出色的財務業績和由此產生的現金流，我們在本季度以 2.5 億美元的成本回購了 370 萬股普通股，平均價格為每股 68.31 美元。截至 2023 年的前 6 個月，我們已使用 4 億美元回購了 640 萬股股票，佔已發行普通股的 2.8%。

We also invested $370 million in land acquisition and $523 million in related development during the quarter. In total, our land sale in the period was $893 million, which is down from $1.1 billion through the second quarter of last year. On a year-to-date basis, this year, we have invested $1.8 billion in land acquisition development, which keeps us on track to invest between $3.5 billion and $4 billion for the full year.

本季度我們還投資了 3.7 億美元用於土地收購，5.23 億美元用於相關開發。總的來說，我們這一時期的土地銷售金額為 8.93 億美元，低於去年第二季度的 11 億美元。今年迄今，我們已投資 18 億美元用於土地收購開發，這使我們全年投資額有望達到 35 億至 40 億美元。

At the end of the second quarter, we had 214,000 lots under control, of which 51% were held via option. The total number of lots we control and the percentage of lots we controlled via option both increased from Q1 of this year as we are working to rebuild our option lot supply after exiting positions in the back half of 2022.

截至第二季度末，我們控制了214,000手，其中51%是通過期權持有的。我們控制的手數總數和通過期權控制的手數百分比均較今年第一季度有所增加，因為我們正在努力在 2022 年下半年退出頭寸後重建我們的期權手數供應。

We also ended the second quarter with $1.8 billion of cash and a gross debt-to-capital ratio of 17.3%. Given our large cash position, our net debt to capital ratio is now below 3%.

第二季度結束時，我們還擁有 18 億美元的現金，總債務與資本比率為 17.3%。鑑於我們擁有大量現金頭寸，我們的淨債務與資本比率目前低於 3%。

Looking briefly at our full year results, on a year-to-date basis, we have generated net income of $1.3 billion, drove the book value of our stock by 12% and returned $472 million to shareholders. At the same time, our financial performance has permitted us to reduce our financial leverage to historic lows, and we have generated a return on equity for the trailing 12 months of 32%.

簡單看一下我們的全年業績，從年初至今，我們已經產生了 13 億美元的淨利潤，使我們的股票賬面價值增長了 12%，並向股東返還了 4.72 億美元。與此同時，我們的財務業績使我們能夠將財務槓桿降至歷史低點，並且過去 12 個月的股本回報率為 32%。

Thank you, and I'll turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

謝謝您，我會將電話轉回給瑞安，徵求一些最後的意見。

Thanks, Bob. As we've commented, homebuyer demand in the second quarter was strong and continued to exceed the expectation we had coming into the year. In the overwhelming majority of our markets, local pricing dynamics are stable to positive, and we continue to find opportunities to modestly increase net pricing in many of our communities. Further, at an absorption pace of 2.9 homes per month for the period, sales pace for the second quarter was above last year and generally above our pre-COVID averages.

謝謝，鮑勃。正如我們所評論的，第二季度的購房者需求強勁，並繼續超出我們今年的預期。在我們絕大多數市場中，當地定價動態穩定到積極，我們繼續尋找機會在我們的許多社區中適度提高淨定價。此外，按該期間每月 2.9 套房屋的吸收速度，第二季度的銷售速度高於去年，並且總體高於新冠疫情前的平均水平。

Demand in the second quarter was fairly consistent from month to month. And as you would anticipate, with a 24% increase in orders, we generally saw positive demand across our markets, which has continued into the month of July. That being said, on a relative basis, there are communities in our Western markets where we are still having to adjust pricing and/or incentives to entice buyers into our communities and ensure we continue to turn our assets.

第二季度的需求逐月相當穩定。正如您所預料的那樣，隨著訂單增長 24%，我們普遍看到整個市場的積極需求，這種情況一直持續到 7 月份。話雖這麼說，相對而言，我們西方市場的一些社區仍然需要調整定價和/或激勵措施，以吸引買家進入我們的社區，並確保我們繼續轉動我們的資產。

Given the higher interest rate environment, one of the changes we have seen in the -- is the slight increase in the number of cash buyers, particularly among our active adult customers. As this buyer group moves into our plans for retirement, they are making the decision to carry less mortgage debt given today's higher rates. At the other end of the price spectrum, final purchase decisions among first-time buyers are also being impacted by higher rates. As data suggests, some first-time buyers are opting to go with less square footage or fewer options and upgrades as buyers need to purchase a home in today's dynamic market environment is why our ability to offer a significant mortgage incentive nationally is such an effective sales tool.

鑑於較高的利率環境，我們看到的變化之一是現金買家數量略有增加，特別是在我們活躍的成年客戶中。當這個買家群體進入我們的退休計劃時，考慮到當今的利率較高，他們決定減少抵押貸款債務。在價格範圍的另一端，首次購房者的最終購買決定也受到較高利率的影響。正如數據顯示的那樣，一些首次購房者選擇較小的面積或較少的選擇和升級，因為買家需要在當今動態的市場環境中購買房屋，這就是為什麼我們在全國范圍內提供重大抵押貸款激勵的能力是如此有效的銷售工具。

With that said, our first-time buyers remain financially resilient as personal savings remain the primary source of down payment. At the same time, we continue to see millennials are getting self-support from parents if they need help making the move into homeownership.

話雖如此，我們的首次購房者仍然具有財務彈性，因為個人儲蓄仍然是首付的主要來源。與此同時，我們繼續看到，如果千禧一代在買房過程中需要幫助，他們會從父母那裡獲得自我支持。

One final note as to buyer sentiment, recent feedback from our first-time buyers indicate that an overwhelming majority bought a new construction Pulte's home rather than an existing home because they felt it offered the best overall value. We've been extremely thoughtful about the home designs we are putting on the ground and the incentives we are offering to help ensure we are offering a compelling value to our customers.

關於買家情緒的最後一點，我們首次購房者最近的反饋表明，絕大多數人購買了新建的普爾特房屋，而不是現有房屋，因為他們認為它提供了最佳的整體價值。我們對我們正在實施的家居設計以及我們提供的激勵措施進行了非常深思熟慮，以幫助確保我們為客戶提供令人信服的價值。

These comments in combination with our 28% increase in second quarter orders within the first-time buyer group indicate our efforts are meeting with success. In closing, I want to thank the entire PulteGroup team for their efforts in delivering such outstanding operating and financial results. On the numbers we show in our financial statements, you continue to provide exceptional homes and home buying experiences to our customers.

這些評論與我們第二季度首次購買者群體訂單增長 28% 相結合，表明我們的努力取得了成功。最後，我要感謝整個 PulteGroup 團隊為實現如此出色的運營和財務業績所做的努力。根據我們在財務報表中顯示的數字，您繼續為我們的客戶提供卓越的房屋和購房體驗。

I will now turn the call back to Jim.

我現在將把電話轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions. So we can get to as many questions as possible during the time remaining. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. And I'll now ask Avi to explain the process and open the call for questions.

謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備開始提問。這樣我們就可以在剩下的時間裡回答盡可能多的問題。 （操作員說明）謝謝。現在我將請阿維解釋整個過程並開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from John Lovallo with UBS.

（操作員說明）我們將回答瑞銀集團的 John Lovallo 提出的第一個問題。

The first one is the 29% to 29.5% gross margins that you're expecting in the third quarter and the fourth quarter are clearly well above what we were forecasting. Just curious, are there any unusual items in there that we should think about? It sounds like mix is going to be a benefit. And what I'm really trying to get at is, what do you view as sort of the sustainable rate of margin? Is -- are we there? Is this sustainable? And if not, how quickly would you expect a reversion towards that more normalized rate?

第一個是您預計第三季度和第四季度毛利率為 29% 至 29.5%，顯然遠高於我們的預測。只是好奇，裡面有什麼不尋常的東西值得我們考慮嗎？聽起來混合會帶來好處。我真正想要了解的是，您認為可持續的利潤率是多少？我們在嗎？這是可持續的嗎？如果不是，您預計多久會恢復到更加正常化的利率？

John, it's Ryan. Thanks for the question. We're really pleased with how all of our consumer groups have been performing and certainly, how we saw the strength of sign-ups by consumer group in the most recent quarter. The mix of business, I think, is very consistent with what you've seen from us over the past 12 months. And as we mentioned in some of our prepared remarks, it's totally in line with kind of our stated goals.

約翰，是瑞安。謝謝你的提問。我們對所有消費者群體的表現感到非常滿意，當然，我們對最近一個季度各消費者群體的註冊量也感到非常滿意。我認為，業務組合與您在過去 12 個月中看到的我們的情況非常一致。正如我們在一些準備好的發言中提到的，這完全符合我們既定的目標。

So really nothing there that I would highlight of note.

所以真的沒有什麼我要強調的。

And then in terms of kind of the forward kind of margin profile, we've given both a guide for Q3 and Q4, which I think what you want to read into that is that's where we see the business for the balance of the year. We're clearly not giving anything kind of beyond that at this point.

然後，就遠期利潤狀況而言，我們提供了第三季度和第四季度的指南，我認為您想要了解的是我們看到今年剩餘時間的業務。目前我們顯然不會提供任何超出此範圍的內容。

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just one more question on margin. I think last quarter, you guys talked about the spread between active adult, move-up an entry level sort of reverting back to historical norms. And I think that was a quick move-in portion kind of going back a little bit on the lower end. Given where housing demand is today and the desire for many folks to move in quickly, are you expecting that sort of quick move-in portion to actually trend higher again?

好的。這很有幫助。也許還有一個關於保證金的問題。我想上個季度，你們談到了活躍的成年人之間的傳播，從入門級升級到恢復到歷史正常水平。我認為這是一個快速進入的部分，有點回到低端。考慮到目前的住房需求以及許多人快速入住的願望，您是否預計這種快速入住比例實際上會再次走高？

Yes, John, we've actually seen that be pretty stable in terms of the number of orders that are coming from our spec production, which is part of the reason we spent quite a bit of time talking about that today. We like the investment community to understand that the way we're running our production machine is very specific and intentional by buyer group. Specifically, to your point with the first-time buyer group, that business is predominantly a spec business for us. The margins are lower to your point, which is a reversion to what we saw in pre-COVID kind of times that our first-time business was our lowest margin.

是的，約翰，我們實際上已經看到，就來自我們規格生產的訂單數量而言，這是相當穩定的，這也是我們今天花大量時間討論這一問題的部分原因。我們希望投資界了解，我們運行生產機器的方式是買家群體非常具體和有意的。具體來說，就您對首次購買者群體的觀點而言，該業務對我們來說主要是規格業務。利潤率低於你的觀點，這與我們在新冠疫情爆發之前所看到的情況有所不同，即我們的首次業務是我們最低的利潤率。

We typically get a couple of hundred basis points higher out of our move-up and family business. And then our highest margin will come out of our adult -- active adult communities. We're definitely seeing that today. That's the other point that I would really highlight for you in kind of the guide that we've given for margins for the balance of the year. A big part of our business or a big chunk of our business is from our first time entry-level business, which is all incorporated into that guide.

我們通常會從升級和家族企業中獲得更高的幾百個基點。然後我們的最高利潤將來自我們的成人——活躍的成人社區。今天我們肯定看到了這一點。這是我真正要向您強調的另一點，即我們為今年剩餘時間提供的利潤率指南。我們業務的很大一部分或很大一部分來自我們的第一次入門級業務，這些都納入了該指南。

We'll take our next question from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut 提出的下一個問題。

I guess, first question, just kind of asking the gross margins from a different perspective, and then I have a question on demand. When you think about the more challenged backdrop that the industry faced in the back half of '22, for builders that were more spec oriented. You saw the more immediate impact of that higher promotional, not promotional, but incentives and pricing adjustments that many builders made. You saw that run through the income statement much more immediately. We were estimating for build-to-order builders that, that would have a more of a lag effect. So can you kind of walk through the dynamics of how you've been able to maintain since the fourth quarter?

我想，第一個問題，只是從不同的角度詢問毛利率，然後我有一個按需提問。當您想到 22 世紀下半年該行業面臨的更具挑戰性的背景時，對於更加註重規格的建築商來說。您看到了許多建築商進行的更高促銷（不是促銷，而是激勵和定價調整）帶來的更直接的影響。您可以更直接地看到損益表中的這一點。我們估計，對於按訂單生產的建築商來說，這會產生更多的滯後效應。那麼，您能介紹一下自第四季度以來您的維持情況嗎？

You had some pullback from 2Q '22, but nothing to the extent of the more spec-oriented, perhaps first-time heavy builders. Perhaps the product mix is a factor, but how that higher promotional environment has impacted the financials and if there's offsets to that, that have allowed a much more modest decline as well as for a build-to-order builder, a pretty nice element of stability going into the back half. So sorry for the long-winded, but just trying to understand perhaps what are the offsets to the higher incentive backdrop in the back half and the pluses and minuses there.

與 22 年第二季度相比，您出現了一些回調，但沒有達到更以規格為導向的、也許是首次重型建築商的程度。也許產品組合是一個因素，但更高的促銷環境如何影響財務狀況，如果有抵消的話，這會導致更溫和的下降，對於按訂單生產的建築商來說，這是一個非常好的因素後半段保持穩定。對於冗長的內容感到抱歉，但只是想了解後半部分更高的激勵背景的抵消以及那裡的優點和缺點。

Yes, Mike. I'll let Bob maybe give you a little more detail on kind of the discounts in the quarter, which we actually -- we've seen kind of come down just a tab sequentially. So in terms of the discounts, we are effectively using our discount money toward mortgage rate buydowns. It's particularly affected with that first-time buyer. I think the reports and some of the data that's out there on mortgage rate environment, which suggests the sweet spot for most buyers is somewhere around 5.5%. So for us, it's really been a reallocation of the incentive dollars away from things that buyers may have previously used those incentives toward we're finding a lot of those incentives are being used in the mortgage rate environment.

是的，邁克。我會讓鮑勃向您提供有關本季度折扣類型的更多詳細信息，實際上，我們已經看到這些折扣只是按順序下降。因此，就折扣而言，我們有效地將折扣資金用於抵押貸款利率的下調。對於首次購房者來說，它尤其受到影響。我認為有關抵押貸款利率環境的報告和一些數據表明，對於大多數買家來說，最佳利率在 5.5% 左右。因此，對我們來說，這實際上是對激勵資金的重新分配，從買家以前可能使用這些激勵措施的東西中轉移出來，我們發現很多激勵措施正在抵押貸款利率環境中使用。

And if, Bob, you can kind of weigh in on any of the pluses and minuses there, it would seem that to the extent that you had any impact from the higher discounting or price adjustment, it would be in the back half of your full year guide. And so just making sure there's no other (inaudible) here or we've kind of worked through some of the more challenging backdrop there. I guess yes...

鮑勃，如果您可以權衡那裡的任何優點和缺點，那麼似乎就您從更高的折扣或價格調整中產生的任何影響而言，這將是您全部費用的後半部分。年指南。因此，只需確保這裡沒有其他（聽不清），或者我們已經解決了那裡一些更具挑戰性的背景。我猜是...

Sorry, yes, there's no shoe, right? We have provided a guide. And so if you're focused on sales activity from the back half of '22, it has either closed or in somewhat limited circumstances will close over the next 3 to 6 months. So it's in our P&L already or reflected in the guide that we have given. The relativity of our markets to the space, if you think about it, our margins didn't go up quite as much in '21 and into the beginning half of '22. And part of the reason for that was we didn't have as much spec production as others did. And so they were pricing product at the time it was completed, getting full value for it whereas we were contracting often times 3 and 6 and 9 months ahead of time.

抱歉，是的，沒有鞋子，對嗎？我們提供了指南。因此，如果您關注 22 年下半年的銷售活動，那麼它要么已經關閉，要么在某種有限的情況下將在未來 3 到 6 個月內關閉。所以它已經在我們的損益表中或反映在我們提供的指南中。我們的市場與該領域的相關性，如果你仔細想想，我們的利潤率在 21 年和 22 年初並沒有增加那麼多。部分原因是我們沒有像其他人那樣生產那麼多規格產品。因此，他們在產品完成時對其進行定價，獲得其全部價值，而我們通常提前 3、6 和 9 個月簽訂合同。

And so some of the price appreciation that went on in the market during the time we were constructing the home, we didn't feel the full benefit of that in our margin profile then. And so you saw kind of the really spec-heavy builders capturing every dollar of value.

因此，在我們建造房屋的過程中，市場上出現了一些價格上漲，當時我們並沒有在我們的利潤狀況中感受到這一點的全部好處。所以你看到了一些真正注重規格的建築商抓住了每一美元的價值。

Now against the next -- if you think about the back half of -- and sorry, of '22 and into '23, they were once again pricing at market. They had the full cost of a heavy lumber load, honestly, and an inflationary environment influencing their cost structure and prices weren't running quite as quickly, particularly in that entry level. So I think their reversion reflected the underwriting of land that they bought and the timing of their construction. Ours, again, for that spec business, we are fully engaged now on that. Again, that is -- you're seeing that in our margins today.

現在，針對下一個 - 如果你考慮一下 - 抱歉，從 22 年到 23 年，他們再次按市場定價。老實說，他們承擔了沉重的木材負擔的全部成本，而且通貨膨脹環境影響了他們的成本結構，而且價格運行得不太快，特別是在入門級。所以我認為他們的回歸反映了他們購買的土地的承保和建設的時間。同樣，對於我們的規格業務，我們現在正在全力投入。再說一次，你今天在我們的利潤中看到了這一點。

It's always worth it to highlight we typically play at a little bit higher price point in that entry-level business, a little bit closer in. And so it's not quite apples-to-apples with some of our competitive set. So I don't want to sound defensive, but there's nothing really unique in this quarter's margin or we would have called it out. There's nothing unique that's coming in the next couple of quarters and the margin is going to stay pretty strong.

值得強調的是，我們通常在入門級業務中以更高一點的價格點進行遊戲，更接近一點。因此，與我們的一些競爭產品並不完全一樣。因此，我不想听起來像是防守者，但本季度的利潤率並沒有什麼真正獨特的地方，否則我們會指出這一點。未來幾個季度不會有什麼獨特的事情發生，而且利潤率將保持相當強勁。

We'll take our next question from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

我們將回答 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt 提出的下一個問題。

Ryan, you mentioned that 2/3 of your divisions had raised prices over the course of the quarter. Could you expand on that a little bit? Does that mean net average order prices were up? And then can you talk about how that mix and price change was that reduction in incentives, increasing base prices, options upgrades, lot premium? Just want to get a little more color on the price increase activity you're actually putting into the mix right now.

Ryan，您提到您的 2/3 部門在本季度提高了價格。你能稍微擴展一下嗎？這是否意味著淨平均訂單價格上漲了？然後你能談談這種組合和價格變化是如何減少激勵措施、提高基本價格、期權升級、批次溢價的嗎？只是想對您現在實際投入的價格上漲活動有更多了解。

Yes, Carl. Two things there. We did see price increases in some of our communities in 2/3 of the division. So it wasn't every division, it wasn't every single community. But we are seeing pockets of strength where we're able to, to your question, I'll answer the affirmative, it is a net increase in net pricing and it's coming through all of the options that you listed. So there are modest increases. And those are -- I would note that those are off of what we would consider adjusted kind of current cycle floor pricing. So we feel like we've seen a bit of strengthening in the overall sales environment, which allowed us to modestly increase pricing.

是的，卡爾。有兩件事。我們確實看到一些社區 2/3 分區的價格上漲。所以不是每個部門，也不是每個社區。但我們看到了我們能夠做到的一些力量，對於你的問題，我會回答肯定的，這是淨定價的淨增長，並且它通過你列出的所有選項實現。所以有適度的增長。我要指出的是，這些不屬於我們認為調整後的當前週期底價。因此，我們覺得整體銷售環境有所改善，這使我們能夠適度提高定價。

Okay, Ryan. And then to drill down on the first-time buyer Centex spec business, what kind of backlog conversion rate do you sort of target in that business specifically? And then can you mention maybe a little bit more color on cycle time improvement, where you have been, where you are now and where you think you can go with sort of normalized supply chain over the course of the next couple of 3 quarters?

好的，瑞安。然後深入研究首次買家 Centex 規格業務，您對該業務的具體目標是多少積壓訂單轉化率？然後，您能否就週期時間的改進提供更多的信息，您曾經在哪裡，現在在哪裡，以及您認為在接下來的三個季度中，您可以通過標準化供應鏈走向哪裡？

Yes, Carl. I don't have a specific number for you on backlog conversion of that specific buyer group. We could follow up with you offline on that. The things that we're really monitoring there, we're running a -- with that spec business, specifically, we're running a predictable and consistent monthly start rate. And we've worked to match that start rate to what we believe our monthly sales rate has been, is and will be. And so it's part of what you heard me talk about in my prepared remarks around getting our start rate matched to the sales rate, which we think we've effectively done.

是的，卡爾。我沒有為您提供該特定買家群體的積壓訂單轉化的具體數字。我們可以在線下與您聯繫。我們真正在那裡監控的事情，我們正在運行 - 對於該規範業務，具體來說，我們正在運行可預測且一致的每月啟動率。我們一直在努力使起始率與我們認為的月度銷售率過去、現在和將來相匹配。因此，這是您在我準備好的講話中聽到的一部分內容，即讓我們的起始率與銷售率相匹配，我們認為我們已經有效地做到了這一點。

And then the second question cycle times, Carl, yes, we're starting to see those come down very much in line with our anticipated improvements throughout the year. It's not been easy. It's been a lot of hard work by our procurement teams, our construction managers and certainly our trade partners that have helped us to reduce those cycle times. So we're seeing at least a couple of weeks come out of the cycle times and certainly starts that are going in the ground today. We'd expect to maybe even get a little bit more by the time that those deliver. That's been a big contributor to our success, not only in Q2, but to the updated and increased guide for full year closings that we've provided today.

然後是第二個問題週期時間，卡爾，是的，我們開始看到這些下降與我們全年預期的改進非常一致。這並不容易。我們的採購團隊、施工經理，當然還有我們的貿易夥伴付出了巨大的努力，才幫助我們縮短了周期時間。因此，我們看到至少還有幾週的周期時間，並且今天肯定會開始。我們預計，當這些產品交付時，我們甚至可能會得到更多。這對我們的成功做出了巨大貢獻，不僅是在第二季度，而且是我們今天提供的更新和增加的全年結賬指南。

We will take our next question from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們將接受 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim 提出的下一個問題。

Great job. Beats go on. Nice to see. I guess I had a question about -- just to touch on the volume side of the story. Can you give us a sense for what kind of rate of growth in community count, the current level of land spend that you're allocating here? What kind of growth in community count can that support? It's a general question, looking out not specific to 3Q necessarily.

做得好。節拍繼續。很高興見到。我想我有一個問題——只是想談談故事的音量方面。您能否讓我們了解一下社區數量的增長率以及您目前分配給這裡的土地支出水平？這可以支持什麼樣的社區數量增長？這是一個普遍問題，不一定針對第三季度。

And can you also regarding volume. Can you give us a sense for what the absorption rates? What the dispersion looks like across your 3 major segments?

您也可以考慮一下音量嗎？您能給我們介紹一下吸收率嗎？您的 3 個主要細分市場的分散情況如何？

Yes, Stephen. I'm reluctant to answer your first question because we haven't provided any view beyond the third and fourth quarters. And so I'm going to pass on that.

是的，斯蒂芬。我不願意回答你的第一個問題，因為我們沒有提供第三季度和第四季度之後的任何觀點。所以我要轉達這一點。

And then in terms of the absorption paces, we haven't provided that level of detail. What I can tell you is that in the current operating environment, the quickest-growing part of the business is move-up right now, interestingly enough. So absorptions there grew faster. We had absorption growth across all 3 demographics. And so we had highlighted 28% growth in the first time, 33% in the move-up and 7% in the active adult. But on a per store basis, all of them were up. The richest contributor to that actually was the move-up space.

然後就吸收速度而言，我們還沒有提供那麼詳細的信息。我可以告訴你的是，在當前的運營環境下，業務增長最快的部分是目前的上升，這很有趣。因此那裡的吸收量增長得更快。我們在所有 3 個人口統計數據中都有吸收增長。因此，我們強調了首次增長 28%，升級增長 33%，活躍成人增長 7%。但從每家商店的角度來看，所有的價格都上漲了。其中最富有的貢獻者實際上是晉升空間。

And we'll take our next question from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

我們將接受巴克萊銀行馬修·布利 (Matthew Bouley) 提出的下一個問題。

I guess I'll just go back to the gross margin side. Maybe just to put a finer point on it. I think I heard you say that the, I guess, mix of sort of incentivized build-to-order product from end of '22 sales has largely worked through at this point. So what exactly would be, I guess, a worse headwind in the gross margin in the third quarter relative to the second quarter? Is it entirely mix of entry level -- or excuse me, first-time buyer spec? Or what exactly is the greater headwind to cause that sequential step down in margins?

我想我會回到毛利率方面。也許只是為了提出更好的觀點。我想我聽到你說，我想，從 22 年底銷售開始的某種激勵性按訂單生產產品的組合此時已基本發揮作用。那麼，我猜，第三季度毛利率相對於第二季度的不利因素到底是什麼？它完全是入門級的混合體嗎？或者對不起，首次購買者的規格？或者到底是什麼更大的阻力導致利潤率連續下降？

Yes, it's a couple of things. One, we are in inflationary environment. Our land is more expensive, labor is more expensive, material is more expensive. You can see lumbers trending up given the faster cycle times, some of that is going to come into our production in the back half of the year. And then certainly, the mix on a geographic basis matters. And so we'll see some contributions from some margin communities that we've had to adjust as we've gone through the year. It's normal. So I know it's a nonanswer, but mix always matters in that conversation.

是的，有幾件事。第一，我們處於通脹環境中。我們的土地更貴，勞動力更貴，材料更貴。您可以看到，由於週期時間加快，木材呈上升趨勢，其中一些木材將在今年下半年投入生產。當然，地理上的混合也很重要。因此，我們將看到一些利潤社區的一些貢獻，我們在這一年中不得不調整這些貢獻。這是正常的。所以我知道這是一個無法回答的問題，但在談話中混合總是很重要。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then, I guess, secondly, just back on that last point around the improvement in move-up, obviously, looking at the second quarter of last year, I mean, the comp is a little bit easier, but clearly, a nice step-up there. Any finer detail? I mean you gave a lot of color at the top around just what's kind of locking in existing home sellers at this point, but you are seeing this nice tick up in your move-up business. So kind of what do you think is sort of driving that? And do you expect it to continue relative to entry level?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，其次，回到關於升級改進的最後一點，顯然，看看去年第二季度，我的意思是，比較容易一點，但顯然，這是一個很好的一步-在上面。有更詳細的嗎？我的意思是，您在頂部圍繞目前鎖定現有房屋賣家的方式進行了很多說明，但您看到了您的搬遷業務的良好增長。那麼您認為是什麼推動了這一趨勢？您預計它會繼續相對於入門級嗎？

Yes. Matthew, I think that's the biggest driver is there's just such a shortage of supply and fewer options for that move-up buyer to choose from. So as a percentage of the available choices that are out there, new homes have become a much bigger piece of that. And I think you're seeing our move-up business benefit from that.

是的。馬修，我認為最大的推動因素是供應短缺，可供升級買家選擇的選擇也更少。因此，作為可用選擇的百分比，新房已成為其中更大的一部分。我認為您會看到我們的升級業務從中受益。

I would share that we've got great communities. We've got excellent designs. The quality of the homes that we're building, I think, are really speaking to that move-up buyer that's looking to add more space or get a newer, more energy-efficient, more technological advanced homes. So I think those things are working to our advantage as well. And in this higher interest rate environment, our ability to offer our national mortgage rate incentive program to the move-up buyer is meaningful as well. That's a tool that we're able to effectively leverage that the resale market is not at the same degree. So I think a number of factors there with the headline being there's just less inventory out there.

我想分享的是我們擁有很棒的社區。我們有出色的設計。我認為，我們正在建造的房屋的質量確實適合那些希望增加更多空間或獲得更新、更節能、技術更先進的房屋的升級買家。所以我認為這些事情也對我們有利。在這種較高的利率環境下，我們向升級買家提供國家抵押貸款利率激勵計劃的能力也很有意義。這是我們能夠有效利用轉售市場不同程度的工具。因此，我認為有很多因素導致庫存減少。

Good luck, guys.

祝大家好運。

And we'll take our next question Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

我們將回答 Zelman & Associates 的艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner) 的下一個問題。

First, I'd love to drill in a little bit on the topic from Steve's question about land spend. If you look at your closing guide, it's gone up about 20% for this year since the start of the year. And your land spend guide hasn't really changed, still kind of in that $3.5 billion to $4 billion range. And I know that's a big range, so maybe the answer is you're coming in closer to the high end versus the low end.

首先，我想深入探討一下史蒂夫關於土地支出問題的主題。如果你看一下你的收盤指南，你會發現今年以來它已經上漲了約 20%。你們的土地支出指南並沒有真正改變，仍然在 35 億美元到 40 億美元的範圍內。我知道這是一個很大的範圍，所以也許答案是你更接近高端而不是低端。

But I'm just curious, as you think about the next few years, I mean, $3.5 billion to $4 billion, probably is pretty close to a replacement level of land, maybe a bit below, but as you think about the land market today and what you're seeing there, is that an area where you feel like at some point, you're going to have to put pedal to the metal and get more aggressive on land spend to drive future growth? And I guess, alternatively, is there a risk of a similar dynamic unfolding from a few years ago, where if demand stays at these levels and you don't see the opportunities in the land market, do you start to limit sales again and do things to kind of keep a lid on that to prevent gap-outs?

但我只是很好奇，當你考慮未來幾年時，我的意思是，35 億至 40 億美元，可能非常接近土地置換水平，也許略低一些，但當你考慮今天的土地市場時你在那裡看到的是，你是否覺得在某個時候，你將不得不全力以赴並更加積極地增加土地支出以推動未來的增長？我想，或者，幾年前是否存在類似動態的風險，如果需求保持在這些水平，而你看不到土地市場的機會，你是否會再次開始限制銷售並採取行動？有什麼辦法可以限制這種情況以防止跳空嗎？

Yes, Alan, thanks for the questions. Ryan. A couple of things. Maybe I'd start with there. For starters, we actually did increase our projected land spend number about a quarter ago. So when we went into the year, I think we were right around $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion. We've moved that up with the high end and as high as $4 billion, certainly down from last year, and that was intentional. When we look at our controlled lot supply, we've got 215,000 lots, plus or minus, under control. Over half of those are controlled via options. So we feel pretty good about kind of what's in the pipeline and what that will mean for the business.

是的，艾倫，謝謝你的提問。瑞安.有幾件事。也許我會從那裡開始。首先，我們實際上在大約四分之一前增加了預計的土地支出數量。因此，當我們進入這一年時，我認為我們的收入約為 32 億至 33 億美元。我們將這一數字提高到了高端，高達 40 億美元，當然比去年有所下降，這是有意為之。當我們查看受控批次供應時，我們控制了 215,000 批次（上下）。其中超過一半是通過選項控制的。因此，我們對即將推出的產品及其對業務的意義感到非常滿意。

Market share and growth are certainly part of our story and part of the things that we're trying to do with our strategy. To your question, Alan, around what are we seeing in the land market, I'd tell you that we're able to get deals done. It is a competitive market, and there certainly isn't anything that's being liquidated or fire sold, but we are to -- our land teams are doing a nice job finding good opportunities, and we've stayed consistent with our disciplined underwriting process, which has yielded the types of results and quarters that we've delivered over the last several years.

市場份額和增長無疑是我們故事的一部分，也是我們試圖通過我們的戰略實現的目標的一部分。對於你的問題，艾倫，關於我們在土地市場上看到的情況，我會告訴你，我們能夠完成交易。這是一個競爭激烈的市場，當然沒有任何東西被清算或拋售，但我們的土地團隊在尋找良好機會方面做得很好，而且我們一直遵守嚴格的承保流程，這產生了我們過去幾年所交付的業績和季度數據。

So our plan is to stick with that to continue, to stay very balanced and disciplined and running a good business and being really laser focused on picking our spots with where we're investing more capital. So to this point, I don't think we need to do anything along the lines of put the pedal to the metal. I think we're going to continue to be foot on the gas, but we're going to continue to focus on monetizing the 214,000 lots that we have, which we'll see what the market holds, but I think that will give us an opportunity to continue to run a very nice business that will grow at the market.

因此，我們的計劃是堅持下去，保持非常平衡和紀律，經營良好的業務，並真正專注於選擇我們投資更多資本的地方。因此，到目前為止，我認為我們不需要採取任何類似於猛踩油門的措施。我認為我們將繼續加大力度，但我們將繼續專注於將我們擁有的 214,000 件拍品貨幣化，我們將看看市場的情況，但我認為這會給我們帶來繼續經營一家將在市場上成長的優秀企業的機會。

Got it. I really appreciate that. That's helpful. Second, I do have a question about Florida. You guys are pretty as large in Florida, and there's been a lot written of late about the issues with property insurance in the state and some pretty staggering increases there. And I know some of that can be certainly sensationalized. But I'm curious, a, are you seeing that become more of a concern among homeowners or potential home buyers today in the state? And b, are you aware of anything that the industry might be doing to kind of deal with this issue, because it seems like it could have some long-term ramifications?

知道了。我真的很感激。這很有幫助。其次，我確實有一個關於佛羅里達的問題。你們在佛羅里達州的規模相當大，最近有很多關於該州財產保險問題的文章，而且那裡的保險費增長相當驚人。我知道其中一些肯定會引起轟動。但我很好奇，您是否發現這個問題越來越成為該州房主或潛在購房者的擔憂？ b，您是否知道該行業可能會採取哪些措施來解決這個問題，因為它似乎可能會產生一些長期影響？

Yes, Alan. We haven't seen it become a problem for buyers to make the decision to move into our Florida communities. And in fact, our Florida business has been one of our strongest best-performing regions. And we've got a very diversified business in Florida that ranges from entry level to a heavy move-up business in Tampa and Orlando. And then when you get into South Florida, our active adult consumer and second home buyers are very prevalent. We've got great businesses there.

是的，艾倫。我們還沒有看到買家決定搬入我們佛羅里達州社區時遇到問題。事實上，我們佛羅里達州的業務一直是我們表現最強勁的地區之一。我們在佛羅里達州擁有非常多元化的業務，從入門級到坦帕和奧蘭多的重型升級業務。然後，當您進入南佛羅里達州時，我們活躍的成人消費者和第二套住房購買者非常普遍。我們在那裡有很棒的企業。

Part of our financial services operation, we have an insurance company. We aggregate and we talk about the numbers and the business that they generate as part of our overall financial service portfolio. But we find that our captive insurance agency does a nice job helping to solve some of those problems. Florida is one of those places, Alan, and I think over the years. There's been an ebb and a flow of insurers that are in the market, they leave, they come back, having lived in Florida personally for a long time. I saw that happened over the last 15 years with my own insurance companies, but they wouldn't renew. They'd leave for a few years and then inevitably, they come back and they want the business again.

作為我們金融服務業務的一部分，我們擁有一家保險公司。我們匯總並討論它們產生的數字和業務，作為我們整體金融服務組合的一部分。但我們發現我們的自保保險機構在幫助解決其中一些問題方面做得很好。艾倫，佛羅里達就是其中之一，我多年來一直這麼認為。市場上的保險公司有起有落，他們離開，又回來，他們本人在佛羅里達州生活了很長時間。我在過去 15 年裡看到我自己的保險公司也發生過這種情況，但他們不會續約。他們會離開幾年，然後不可避免地會回來並再次想要這項業務。

So we'll keep an eye on it. California is the other state that there's been a lot in the news media recently about a lot of insurance companies that have left the state due to large losses. So certainly, things that we want to keep an eye on, I would highlight that there are -- there is a view that new homes performed better. They're in -- from a flood standpoint, they're up to spec out of the flood plain, higher than homes that have been developed in recent past. The drainage systems are more prevalent. They're built to current code. You've got new electrical, they're more energy efficient. So there's an argument to say there's potentially less risk with newer constructed homes.

所以我們會密切關注。加利福尼亞州是另一個最近新聞媒體報導很多保險公司因巨額損失而離開該州的州。當然，我要強調的是，我們想要關注的事情是——有一種觀點認為新房表現更好。從洪水的角度來看，它們符合洪氾平原的規格，比最近開發的房屋還要高。排水系統更為普遍。它們是根據當前代碼構建的。你已經有了新的電器，它們更節能。因此，有一種觀點認為，新建房屋的風險可能較小。

We will take our next question from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將回答加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部邁克·達爾的下一個問題。

One more follow-up on the land side. Ryan, you mentioned you're not necessarily seeing like liquidation opportunities. The market is competitive. There were some thoughts or hopes that some of the regional banking fallout might shake some land to lose. Maybe you can comment on that. But then also in terms of classes that your land teams are having, given the competition out there, has it been more that you're getting to your underwriting box because your current pace and price has improved? Or has it been a buyer as have also adjusted downward?

陸地方面還有一個後續行動。瑞安，你提到你不一定會看到清算機會。市場競爭激烈。有人認為或希望一些地區銀行業的影響可能會動搖一些土地，使其失去。也許你可以對此發表評論。但就您的陸地團隊所參加的課程而言，考慮到那裡的競爭，您是否因為當前的速度和價格有所改善而獲得了更多的承保資格？或者是買家也向下調整了？

I'm sure there's some blend, but kind of on average, what do you think is helping more at this point? Is it that -- or that sellers have actually adjusted? Or is it more that at current pace and price, more things hit the box?

我確信有一些混合，但平均而言，您認為目前什麼更有幫助？是這樣——還是賣家實際上已經做出了調整？或者說，以目前的速度和價格，更多的東西會出現在盒子裡？

Yes. As always, as Ryan said, land is not on sale. We have not seen opportunities on large-scale things for banks or private market transactions of any substance. And in terms of the current activity levels, I think it's a combination of both and it probably depends on where you are in the country. There are parts of the country where we have seen some willingness to negotiate on land because the market is a little stickier than it was 18 or 24 months ago. But by and large, no, the market is pretty firm. And we are -- we have not changed our underwriting screen at all. Based on activity levels that we see and can project, we're able to make them underwrite, but they're not on sale.

是的。正如瑞安所說，一如既往，土地不出售。我們還沒有看到銀行或任何實質性私人市場交易的大規模機會。就目前的活動水平而言，我認為這是兩者的結合，而且可能取決於你在這個國家的哪個地方。我們在該國部分地區看到了一些就土地進行談判的意願，因為市場比 18 或 24 個月前更加粘稠。但總的來說，市場相當堅挺。我們——我們根本沒有改變我們的承保屏幕。根據我們看到並可以預測的活動水平，我們能夠讓它們承保，但它們不出售。

Okay. That makes sense, Bob. And then just as a follow-up, maybe I'll broaden that out. Slightly when we think about some of these dynamics, could you just touch on more specifically your sticks and bricks cost, both in the quarter? How we should be thinking about that in the second half? I know you alluded to lumber -- some lumber increases maybe creeping in, but maybe any more quantification of sticks and bricks? And then on the lot side, how should we be thinking about inflationary dynamics in your way at cost here over the next, say, 4 quarters?

好的。這是有道理的，鮑勃。然後作為後續行動，也許我會擴大範圍。當我們考慮其中一些動態時，您能否更具體地談談本季度的棍棒和磚塊成本？下半年我們應該如何思考這個問題？我知道你提到了木材——一些木材的增加可能會悄悄增加，但也許對木棍和磚塊有更多的量化？然後在很多方面，我們應該如何以您的方式考慮未來（例如 4 個季度）的通脹動態？

Yes. I think on the land side, and we always answer it this way, we don't have any ramp up or ramp down in our land portfolio. And so the normal inflationary aspect we see comes if we buy land in 3-year increments. We develop it. We then build on it and cost it off. And so we've seen a pretty steady increase. I wouldn't want to put a particular percentage on it because it varies on when we are in the -- if you think over the last 5 years, the way pricing has moved.

是的。我認為在土地方面，我們總是這樣回答，我們的土地投資組合沒有任何上升或下降。因此，如果我們以三年的增量購買土地，我們就會看到正常的通貨膨脹。我們開發它。然後我們在此基礎上進行構建並降低成本。所以我們看到了相當穩定的增長。我不想給出一個特定的百分比，因為它會隨著我們所處的時間而變化——如果你想想過去五年的定價變化方式。

On the vertical side and even on the horizontal development side to get outside of the acquisition side of the dirt, we came into the year projecting, call it, 12% to 14% increase in costs. We've been able to dial that down. We highlighted on the last call, we were 8% to 9%. We're still there. So our total house cost is up about that year-over-year, and that's going to be inclusive of lumber save earlier in the year. It started to pick back up, materials and labor is the real driver of that. We've been able to work with our trades to try and find efficiencies. Ryan talked about it. We want to be a production consistent cadence of starts, consistency in the production cycle that makes it easier for the trades.

在垂直方面，甚至在水平發展方面，為了擺脫收購方面的污垢，我們預測今年的成本將增加 12％ 至 14％。我們已經能夠降低這一點。我們在上次電話會議中強調，我們的比例是 8% 到 9%。我們還在那裡。因此，我們的房屋總成本同比上漲，這將包括今年早些時候節省的木材。它開始回升，材料和勞動力是其真正的驅動力。我們已經能夠與我們的行業合作，嘗試提高效率。瑞安談到了這件事。我們希望生產開始的節奏保持一致，生產週期保持一致，從而使交易變得更容易。

And now that the supply chain is healthier, we've been able to reduce some of the cost increases through efficiency, not on the purchasing side for materials because, again, that inflationary aspect is there. And when you kind of wash all that together, we're seeing costs up, like I said, 8% to 9%.

現在供應鏈更加健康，我們已經能夠通過提高效率來減少部分成本增加，而不是在材料採購方面，因為通貨膨脹方面仍然存在。當你把所有這些都放在一起時，我們會看到成本上升，就像我說的，8% 到 9%。

We will take our next question from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答沃爾夫研究公司的杜魯門·帕特森提出的下一個問題。

First, you all generated almost $1.5 billion in operating cash flow in the first half of the year. Clearly, you've been rebuilding your spec pipeline, you're kind of cutting back on some land investment, but you should still generate some pretty healthy net income in the back half of the year. I'm just really hoping you can run us through some of the pluses and minuses on your full year '23 operating cash flow potential.

首先，今年上半年你們都產生了近 15 億美元的運營現金流。顯然，你一直在重建你的規格管道，你在某種程度上削減了一些土地投資，但你仍然應該在今年下半年產生一些相當健康的淨利潤。我真的希望您能為我們介紹一下您 23 年全年運營現金流潛力的一些優點和缺點。

Yes. We haven't got to guide on that true, but you're exactly right. I mean, if you think about it, we generated $1.5 billion through the first 6 months of the year. And if you put, I think, the closing volumes and the cost estimates for margins and for SG&A, the operating margin on that forward business at a sales price of $540 million is pretty rich. And certainly, inventory levels will change. But we think actually that we have an opportunity to reduce our investment in-house over the balance of the year because of the improvement in signal times. So to your point, we're going to generate a bunch of cash in the back half of the year.

是的。我們沒有必要指導這一點，但你是完全正確的。我的意思是，如果你想一想，今年前 6 個月我們就創造了 15 億美元的收入。我認為，如果考慮到成交量以及利潤率和銷售管理費用的成本估算，那麼以 5.4 億美元的銷售價格計算的遠期業務的營業利潤率是相當豐厚的。當然，庫存水平將會發生變化。但我們實際上認為，由於信號時間的改善，我們有機會在今年剩餘時間內減少內部投資。因此，就您而言，我們將在今年下半年產生大量現金。

Fair enough. Fair enough. And then just wanted to follow up on a prior question. But given the healthy demand rebound so far, it looks like your absorption levels are at pretty healthy levels, a little bit above what we'll just call kind of historical 2Q averages over the past decade, if you will. Could you just run through whether there were any geographies or consumer segment where you're actually perhaps curbing absorptions again as of the second quarter?

很公平。很公平。然後只想跟進之前的問題。但鑑於迄今為止需求的​​健康反彈，看起來您的吸收水平處於相當健康的水平，如果您願意的話，略高於我們所說的過去十年的歷史第二季度平均水平。您能否簡單介紹一下，截至第二季度，是否有任何地區或消費者細分市場實際上可能再次抑制吸收？

Yes, Truman, we're -- look, we're always balancing our production machine with the amount of developed land that we have in front of us as well as what our trade capacity is. But other than a unique community here or there that is way oversubscribed, we're not in the type of allocation restriction mode that we saw maybe during COVID.

是的，杜魯門，我們——看，我們總是在我們的生產機器與我們面前的已開發土地數量以及我們的貿易能力之間取得平衡。但除了這里或那裡有一個被超額認購的獨特社區之外，我們並沒有處於新冠疫情期間可能看到的分配限制模式。

We will take our next question from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup.

我們將回答花旗集團安東尼·佩蒂納里 (Anthony Pettinari) 提出的下一個問題。

This is Ashu Sonen on for Anthony. I just wanted to ask relative to sort of the sequential price growth on ASP in net orders you saw in the quarter. Was that pretty much like-for-like? Or maybe there might have been some mix impact? And then sort of more broadly, would you say pricing power has gotten stronger at all versus where you were seeing it on your last call in April?

我是安東尼的阿舒·索南。我只是想問一下您在本季度看到的淨訂單中平均售價的連續價格增長情況。是不是很相似？或者也許可能存在一些混合影響？然後更廣泛地說，您是否會說定價能力與您在四月份最後一次電話會議中看到的相比已經變得更強了？

Yes. I think we highlighted that some of that in our prepared remarks, and there was a question earlier, we have in certain geographies and certain communities have been able to modestly increase prices from what was arguably a pricing floor after we made adjustments late last year. So part of that is related to an effective use of the mortgage incentive, which we've used to help solve some affordability challenges. But part of that is there's a real shortage of inventory and the market is allowing us to make some modest price increases. So all of that's kind of reflected in the results that we had for Q2 as well as the guide that we've given for the balance of this year.

是的。我認為我們在準備好的發言中強調了其中的一些內容，並且早些時候有一個問題，在我們去年底進行調整後，我們在某些​​地區和某些社區已經能夠從可以說是定價下限的水平上小幅提高價格。因此，其中一部分與有效利用抵押貸款激勵措施有關，我們用抵押貸款激勵措施來幫助解決一些負擔能力挑戰。但部分原因是庫存確實短缺，市場允許我們小幅提價。因此，所有這些都反映在我們第二季度的結果以及我們為今年剩餘時間提供的指南中。

Great. And then what are your thoughts on kind of the sustainability of progress you've made on cycle times and costs kind of heading into '24 as housing activity is heating back up. Are you -- do you anticipate maybe pressure on cycle times?

偉大的。然後，隨著住房活動的升溫，您對進入 24 世紀以來在周期時間和成本方面取得的進展的可持續性有何看法。您預計週期時間可能會面臨壓力嗎？

Yes. We actually believe that we still got opportunity to continue to do more. And Bob highlighted it in the question that he just answered a minute ago for Truman. As it relates to cash, we feel that we've got opportunity to continue to reduce cycle time, not only in the balance of this year, but well into '24. It's predominantly coming from a healing of the supply chain and removing a lot of the inefficiencies that crept in, given -- but we had a broken supply chain and trades were incredibly inefficient.

是的。我們實際上相信我們仍然有機會繼續做更多的事情。鮑勃在一分鐘前剛剛為杜魯門回答的問題中強調了這一點。就現金而言，我們認為我們有機會繼續縮短週期時間，不僅是在今年餘下的時間裡，而且在 2024 年也是如此。它主要來自於供應鏈的修復，並消除了許多悄然出現的低效率問題，但我們的供應鏈已經破裂，交易效率極其低下。

So we're making progress. We're pleased with it, but we're probably nowhere near where we'd like to be. Our target still remains getting back to pre-COVID cycle times, which is where I think the company can operate.

所以我們正在取得進展。我們對此感到滿意，但我們可能距離我們想要的目標還很遠。我們的目標仍然是回到新冠疫情之前的周期時間，我認為這就是公司可以運營的地方。

We will take our next question from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛的 Susan Maklari 提出的下一個問題。

So my first question is thinking a bit about the supply chain and the rise that we're seeing generally in starts within single family, how do you think about the industry's ability to continue to improve and perhaps sustain some of this as overall demand continues to move higher? And are there any areas specifically that you're more focused on or where we could perhaps see some issues bubble up again?

因此，我的第一個問題是思考一下供應鏈以及我們在單戶家庭中普遍看到的增長，您如何看待隨著整體需求持續增長，該行業繼續改進並可能維持其中一些的能力走得更高？有沒有您更關注的具體領域，或者我們可能會在哪些領域再次出現一些問題？

Yes. So the supply chain is mostly healthy. There are certainly pockets of places where we're continuing to focus. But I think labor, while tight, it's generally available, and we're making -- we're using it efficiently, and it's working. Supply chain, we feel pretty good about. The one area that I'd highlight is electrical components, specifically around switch gear that goes into multifamily buildings, so townhomes and condos. Those are more unique and sometimes customized products that are difficult to find in the cycle. And the lead time to get those things ordered has continued to extend.

是的。所以供應鏈基本上是健康的。當然，還有一些地方是我們繼續關注的。但我認為勞動力雖然緊張，但普遍可用，而且我們正在有效地利用它，而且它正在發揮作用。供應鏈，我們感覺還不錯。我要強調的一個領域是電氣元件，特別是用於多戶建築（例如聯排別墅和公寓）的開關設備。這些是更獨特的、有時是定制的產品，在周期中很難找到。訂購這些物品的交貨時間持續延長。

The other one would be transformer, so transformers that go into the horizontal land development side of things. Those are also in short supply. So a couple of things on the electrical component side. Other than that, I would tell you that labor and supply chain are operating pretty effectively.

另一種是變壓器，即進入橫向土地開發方面的變壓器。這些也供不應求。電氣元件方面有一些事情。除此之外，我想告訴你，勞動力和供應鏈的運作非常有效。

Okay. And then thinking about the business longer term, as your ROE starts to come off the peak that we've seen more recently, but you think about the longer-term operating dynamics on the ground today and perhaps how they've changed relative to where we were coming into the pandemic? Are there things that you think you can hold on to so that the ROE can perhaps stabilize a touch higher than that 20% or low 20% range that you were in before COVID?

好的。然後考慮更長期的業務，當您的股本回報率開始回落我們最近看到的峰值時，但您會考慮當前的長期運營動態，以及它們相對於何處的變化我們正陷入大流行嗎？您認為有哪些事情可以堅持下去，以便 ROE 能夠穩定在新冠疫情之前的 20% 或低 20% 範圍之上？

Susan, I'll try. It's Bob. I think we are seeking to be efficient with our capital. We've got share repurchase activity we highlighted. We've got $400 million that we've done this year already. But we're creating a lot of equity through the earnings of the business. So I think the modeling that you're trying to do doesn't really factor into our decision making, right? We're making investment decisions on ability to generate return over time.

蘇珊，我會努力的。是鮑勃。我認為我們正在尋求有效利用我們的資本。我們強調了股票回購活動。今年我們已經完成了 4 億美元的資金。但我們正在通過企業盈利創造大量股權。所以我認為你嘗試做的建模並沒有真正影響我們的決策，對嗎？我們根據隨時間產生回報的能力做出投資決策。

Do I think that there's an opportunity to do better than we've done historically? Yes, of course, we can be more efficient with our balance sheet. So we highlighted earlier this year that we had $1 billion of extra capital tied up in-house. We've long talked about trying to increase the optionality of our land book, which would be an opportunity for us as well. We're at 50% today -- 51%, sorry. So I think if we can make progress on those fronts, we have an opportunity to continue to generate really strong returns through time.

我認為我們有機會做得比歷史上更好嗎？是的，當然，我們可以提高資產負債表的效率。因此，我們今年早些時候強調，我們內部有 10 億美元的額外資本。我們長期以來一直在談論如何增加土地簿的選擇性，這對我們來說也是一個機會。今天我們的進度是 50%——抱歉，是 51%。因此，我認為如果我們能夠在這些方面取得進展，我們就有機會隨著時間的推移繼續產生真正強勁的回報。

We will take our next question from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

我們將接受德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer 提出的下一個問題。

Just a follow-up on that last question. Perhaps if you could just talk if you've got in your mind, an upper limit on the idle cash that you might carry on your balance sheet, going forward? And then also just maybe talk about your appetite for increasing leverage just given the stability in your business?

只是最後一個問題的後續。也許您可以談談您是否已經考慮到您未來可能在資產負債表上保留的閒置現金的上限？然後也許還可以談談考慮到您業務的穩定性，您對增加槓桿率的興趣？

Yes. I don't know that there's -- I wouldn't want to put guardrails around anything we do. Yes, we've been pretty clear and it's 10-plus years now in terms of how we're going to allocate our capital. We've also been, I think, pretty clear that we don't take a point in time assessment of that. We have a business plan and a model that we've created, and we iterate through time that we use to make the decisions on how to invest that capital and just a refresher in the business first and high return. We want to pay a dividend. We use excess capital to buy back stock we'll manage that against leverage.

是的。我不知道有——我不想在我們所做的任何事情周圍設置護欄。是的，我們已經非常清楚我們將如何分配我們的資本，而且已經過去十多年了。我認為，我們也非常清楚，我們不會對此進行時間點評估。我們有一個商業計劃和一個我們創建的模型，並且我們迭代了我們用來做出如何投資資本的決策的時間，並且只是回顧了業務第一和高回報。我們想支付股息。我們使用多餘的資本回購股票，我們將根據槓桿進行管理。

We've reduced the expected leverage in the business. If you think back a decade ago, we said between 30% and 40% gross debt to cap. We adjusted that 20% to 30%. We're under that today. I think you could see us do lots of things. And I wouldn't want to say, well, if we have more than x dollars of cash, we're going to do something different. We'll continue down the same path. We spent time with the Board working through the different capital decisions we make. And I think that's exactly what will be going forward.

我們降低了業務的預期槓桿。如果你回想一下十年前，我們說過總債務的上限為 30% 到 40%。我們將其調整為 20% 至 30%。今天我們就在這個之下。我想你可以看到我們做了很多事情。我不想說，好吧，如果我們有超過 x 美元的現金，我們就會做一些不同的事情。我們將繼續沿著同一條路走下去。我們花了很多時間與董事會討論我們做出的不同資本決策。我認為這正是未來的發展方向。

Got it. And then just maybe if you could talk about the improvement relative to pre-pandemic in your gross margins and your returns on inventory, if there's a number you could quantify around production improvements and even more specifically, if the actions you've taken getting back into the off-site construction space, if there's anything to call out there? And maybe just an update on how ICG is doing?

知道了。然後也許你可以談談相對於大流行前的毛利率和庫存回報率的改善，是否有一個可以量化的生產改進數字，更具體地說，如果你採取的行動得到了回報進入場外施工空間，那裡有什麼需要注意的嗎？也許只是了解 ICG 的最新進展？

Yes. Let me take the ICG piece. We're really pleased with how that business is operating. We have 2 factories up and operational that are doing well for us, and we're very pleased with what we're getting there. We've talked about once we get some additional factories up and open and it's covering a bigger percentage of the business we'll share more detail about the cycle time gains, the cost savings that we're seeing from that business, but we're really pleased with what that team is doing.

是的。讓我來看看 ICG 的部分。我們對該業務的運營方式非常滿意。我們有 2 家工廠正在運營，運營狀況良好，我們對所取得的成果感到非常滿意。我們已經討論過，一旦我們建立和開放一些額外的工廠，並且它覆蓋了更大比例的業務，我們將分享更多關於週期時間收益、我們從該業務中看到的成本節約的細節，但我們'我們對該團隊所做的事情感到非常滿意。

In terms of the first part of your question, it...

就你問題的第一部分而言，它......

It's interesting. I would tell you, we're -- you're asking if there are productivity gains. If I understood the question correctly, you're asking if there are productivity gains that we've gained by virtue of the pandemic that we might be able to save post pandemic. I would tell you exactly the opposite is true. We have a less efficient business, and it shows up in our cycle times, right? And the supply chain dynamics caused us to lose production efficiency. And you heard Ryan say it a minute ago, we think we've got opportunity to improve from here on that.

這真有趣。我想告訴你，我們——你問的是生產力是否有所提高。如果我對這個問題的理解正確的話，你是在問我們是否能夠通過大流行病而獲得生產力的提高，並在大流行病後我們可以挽救這些生產力的提高。我想告訴你事實恰恰相反。我們的業務效率較低，這會在我們的周期時間中體現出來，對吧？而供應鏈的動態導致我們失去了生產效率。你一分鐘前聽到瑞安說過，我們認為我們有機會從現在開始改進這一點。

We will take our next question from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center.

我們將回答住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫（Alex Barron）提出的下一個問題。

Yes. Just to ask again on the ICG. Is there any plans to roll this out to more markets near term?

是的。只是在 ICG 上再次詢問。近期是否有計劃將其推廣到更多市場？

Yes, Alex, when we made our first acquisition around our off-site our off-site manufacturing efforts. We said we believe we can have up to about 8 plants that will impact about 70% of our overall production volume. That's still the path that we're on. We're -- we haven't announced any new openings, but the strategic direction of 8 plants over time and 70% of the business still holds firm.

是的，亞歷克斯，當我們圍繞我們的場外製造工作進行第一次收購時。我們表示，我們相信我們最多可以擁有 8 家工廠，這將影響我們總產量的 70% 左右。這仍然是我們正在走的路。我們尚未宣布開設任何新工廠，但隨著時間的推移，8 個工廠和 70% 業務的戰略方向仍然堅定。

Got it. And I'm not sure if I missed it, but did you guys give your land position and owned an option?

知道了。我不確定我是否錯過了，但是你們有沒有給出你們的土地位置並擁有選擇權？

I gave the total control, but I give you the owned is 14,000 lots. The option is 110,000 lots for a total control of 214,000 lots.

我給了總控制權，但我給你的是擁有的14,000手。期權為 110,000 手，總控制權為 214,000 手。

Got it. And in terms of direction, obviously, a lot of builders, I guess, yourselves included kind of slowdown acquisition of lots at the end of last year, but are you guys seeing the next few months is something that will reaccelerate or just still kind of hold near current levels?

知道了。就方向而言，顯然，很多建築商，我想，去年年底，你們自己也包括了土地收購的放緩，但你們是否認為接下來的幾個月將會重新加速或仍然會加速？保持在當前水平附近？

Yes, Alex, we gave -- we kind of gave our updated land guide, which is at $4 billion, which is a lot of money. It's not an insignificant investment in our overall land portfolio. Roughly half of that is new acquisition. The other half of that spend is on development on lots that we already own. 214,000 lots gives us certainly ample runway and supply for our go-forward business and going back to some of the answers that I gave on similar questions earlier, we're really confident in our land acquisitions team to continue to find good spots, negotiate what we believe are fair in market prices that will continue to help us generate industry-leading returns and gross margins and help us continue to grow the business.

是的，亞歷克斯，我們給了——我們給了更新後的土地指南，價值 40 億美元，這是一大筆錢。對於我們的整體土地投資組合來說，這並不是一筆微不足道的投資。其中大約一半是新收購的。另一半支出用於開發我們已經擁有的土地。 214,000塊土地無疑為我們的前進業務提供了充足的跑道和供應，回到我之前就類似問題給出的一些答案，我們對我們的土地收購團隊非常有信心，能夠繼續尋找好地點，談判什麼我們相信公平的市場價格將繼續幫助我們產生行業領先的回報和毛利率，並幫助我們繼續發展業務。

And we'll take our next question from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

我們將回答美國銀行 Rafe Jadrosich 的下一個問題。

Can you just talk about the sort of specific drivers of the quarter-over-quarter step-up in gross margin in the second quarter? And then what drove upside relative to your guidance from a quarter ago?

您能談談第二季度毛利率環比上升的具體驅動因素嗎？那麼相對於您一個季度前的指導而言，是什麼推動了上漲？

You're meaning sequentially, right?

你的意思是按順序，對嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. So we had highlighted that a couple of things influence it relative to our guide. One is we got better pricing on specs than we were projecting. And the second was the mix of communities that we got closings from looked a little bit different than we thought. So you can see from the sales environment that the market was pretty strong. We were able to translate that in the specs that we saw. Really, those are the 2 primary drivers that's why we called it out in more.

是的。因此，我們強調了相對於我們的指南而言，有幾件事會影響它。一是我們的規格定價比我們預期的要好。第二個是我們關閉的社區組合看起來與我們想像的有點不同。所以從銷售環境可以看出，市場還是非常強勁的。我們能夠將其轉化為我們看到的規格。實際上，這些是兩個主要驅動因素，這就是我們在更多內容中指出的原因。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then you've spoken a little bit about the underwriting strategy going forward. Like how should we think about your option mix going forward? And like what's the longer-term target relative to the current 51%?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後您談到了未來的承保策略。比如我們應該如何考慮您未來的選擇組合？相對於當前 51% 的長期目標是多少？

Yes, we've been pretty clear. We had targeted 50% a year or so ago, we increased that to a target of 70%. We have gotten to a point, I think at the richest, we were at 56%. We walked from about 60,000 lots over the back half of 2022. When you pulled us back down closer to 50%, now we're starting to rebuild again, fair remark. We had highlighted, we've been able to increase that in this most recent quarter. And again, the target still remains to try to be about 70%.

是的，我們已經說得很清楚了。大約一年前，我們的目標是 50%，現在我們將目標提高到 70%。我們已經達到了一個點，我認為在最富有的地區，我們達到了 56%。 2022 年下半年，我們從大約 60,000 個地塊中走出來。當你把我們拉回接近 50% 時，現在我們開始再次重建，公平地說。我們強調，我們在最近一個季度已經能夠增加這一點。再次強調，目標仍然是 70% 左右。

And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. And I will now turn the call back to Mr. Jim Zeumer for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，這就是我們今天提問的時間了。現在，我將把電話轉回吉姆·祖默先生，讓其致閉幕詞。

I appreciate everybody joining us on the call today. We're around and available to the remainder of the day if you've got any questions. Otherwise, we'll look forward to speaking with you on our next quarterly call. Thank you.

我感謝今天大家加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何疑問，我們將竭誠為您服務。否則，我們將期待在下一次季度電話會議上與您交談。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。