普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Devon, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup Inc. Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好。我叫德文，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup Inc. 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Thank you for your patience. Mr. Jim Zeumer, you may begin the conference.

感謝您的耐心等待。 Jim Zeumer 先生，您可以開始會議了。

Great. Good morning. Thank you, Devon. We look forward to discussing PulteGroup's outstanding fourth quarter earnings for the period ended December 31, 2022. The I'm joined on today's call by Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O’Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Jim Ossowski, Senior VP of Finance. A copy of our earnings release and this morning's presentation slides have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We'll post an audio replay of this call later today. Please note that consistent with this morning's earnings release, we will be discussing our reported fourth quarter numbers as well as our financial results adjusted to exclude the benefit of certain insurance reserve adjustments and JV income as well as the write-off of deposits and pre-acquisition spend and a tax charge recorded in the period.

偉大的。早上好。謝謝你，德文。我們期待討論 PulteGroup 截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度傑出收益。今天，總裁兼首席執行官 Ryan Marshall 和我一起參加了電話會議； Bob O’Shaughnessy，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；和財務高級副總裁 Jim Ossowski。我們的收益發布副本和今天上午的演示幻燈片已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com。我們將在今天晚些時候發布這次通話的音頻重播。請注意，與今天上午的收益發布一致，我們將討論我們報告的第四季度數字以及我們調整後的財務業績，以排除某些保險準備金調整和合資企業收入的好處以及存款註銷和預付款購置支出和期間記錄的稅費。

A reconciliation of our adjusted results to our reported financials is included in this morning's release and within today's webcast slides. We encourage you to review these tables to assist in your analysis of our business performance.

我們調整後的結果與我們報告的財務數據的對賬包含在今天上午的新聞稿和今天的網絡廣播幻燈片中。我們鼓勵您查看這些表格以幫助您分析我們的業務績效。

And finally, I want to alert everyone that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

最後，我想提醒大家，今天的演示文稿包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天發表的評論所暗示的結果存在重大差異。可能影響未來結果的最重要的風險因素在隨附的演示幻燈片中作為今天收益發布的一部分進行了總結。這些風險因素和其他關鍵信息在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Now let me turn the call over to Ryan Marshall. Ryan?

現在讓我把電話轉給瑞安·馬歇爾。賴安？

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. We ended 2022 on a high note as we closed almost 8,900 homes and delivered all-time fourth quarter records with homebuilding revenues of $5.1 billion and earnings of $3.85 per share. These results, in turn, helped PulteGroup finish the year with over $1 billion in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio below 10%. Bob will detail the rest of our Q4 results in a few minutes.

謝謝，吉姆，早上好。我們以高調結束了 2022 年，關閉了近 8,900 套房屋，第四季度創下歷史新高，房屋建築收入為 51 億美元，每股收益為 3.85 美元。反過來，這些結果幫助 PulteGroup 以超過 10 億美元的現金和低於 10% 的淨債務資本比率結束了這一年。 Bob 將在幾分鐘內詳細介紹我們第四季度的其餘結果。

Driven by the company's exceptional fourth quarter performance, PulteGroup delivered another year of great financial results. For 2022, our home sale revenues increased 18% over the prior year to $15.8 billion, our reported pretax earnings increased by 37% to $3.4 billion and our reported earnings increased 48% to $11.01 per share. These results provided us the flexibility to invest $4.5 billion into the business while returning over $1.2 billion to shareholders, dividends and share repurchases. Let me just pause right here and thank our entire organization for their efforts in delivering such a great operating and financial results under some challenging market conditions. We are truly fortunate to have such an outstanding team.

在公司出色的第四季度業績的推動下，PulteGroup 又實現了一年的出色財務業績。 2022 年，我們的房屋銷售收入比上年增長 18% 至 158 億美元，報告的稅前收益增長 37% 至 34 億美元，報告的收益增長 48% 至每股 11.01 美元。這些結果使我們能夠靈活地向業務投資 45 億美元，同時向股東返還超過 12 億美元、股息和股票回購。讓我在這裡停下來，感謝我們整個組織在充滿挑戰的市場條件下為實現如此出色的運營和財務業績所做的努力。我們真的很幸運擁有這樣一支優秀的團隊。

In assessing our 2022 financial results, we fully appreciate that gains in volume, pricing, gross margin and earnings reflect the stronger demand environment that existed earlier in 2022. As we all know, the Federal Reserve decision high grade 7x in 2022 and its fight against inflation is successfully slowing the economy, including housing. For the full year, national new and existing home sales across the country fell 16% and 18%, respectively, from 2021. Consistent with the trend of these national numbers, our 2022 net new orders were down roughly 27% from 2021. The softer demand we've experienced as a result of consumers priced out of the market by higher prices and higher mortgage rates, along with those individuals who have moved to the sidelines given market uncertainties and risks.

在評估我們 2022 年的財務業績時，我們充分認識到銷量、定價、毛利率和收益的增長反映了 2022 年初存在的更強勁的需求環境。眾所周知，美聯儲決定在 2022 年將利率提高 7 倍，並與通貨膨脹成功地減緩了經濟，包括住房。全年來看，全國新房和現房銷量較 2021 年分別下降 16% 和 18%。與這些全國數字的趨勢一致，我們 2022 年的淨新訂單較 2021 年下降了約 27%。我們經歷過的需求是由於消費者因價格上漲和抵押貸款利率上漲而退出市場，以及那些因市場不確定性和風險而轉為觀望的個人。

Despite the higher rate environment dominating the national conversation, we saw buyer demand improve as the fourth quarter progressed and can confirm this strength continued through the month of January. We'll have to see how things progress from here, but I think this improvement attests to the ongoing desire for homeownership that exists in this country. Net sign-ups, both in absolute number and absorption pace, increased as we move through each month of the fourth quarter and through the month of January. While seasonal trends have been distorted over the past few years, monthly sales moving higher as the fourth quarter progressed is atypical.

儘管高利率環境主導了全國對話，但隨著第四季度的進展，我們看到買家需求有所改善，並且可以確認這種勢頭持續到 1 月份。我們必須看看事情從這裡進展如何，但我認為這種改善證明了這個國家存在的對房屋所有權的持續渴望。隨著第四季度的每個月和 1 月份的進展，淨註冊人數（無論是絕對數量還是吸收速度）都在增加。雖然季節性趨勢在過去幾年被扭曲，但隨著第四季度的進展，月度銷售額走高是非典型的。

In short, we are encouraged by the recent improvement in our new home sales. Based on feedback from our sales offices, buyers have been responding to the decline in mortgage rates. Consistent with this idea, I would add that rate buy-downs remain among the top incentives for our customers. Along with the decline in mortgage rates, actions we've taken to help improve overall affordability appear to be gaining traction. In alignment with our strategy to find price and turn our assets, we continue to implement programs that enable consumers to buy homes in today's higher rate environment. The cost of these programs, which might include rate buy-downs, lower lot premiums or even price reductions, can be seen in our higher Q4 incentives. In the fourth quarter, incentives increased to 4.3% of sales price. On a sequential basis, this is up from 2.2% on closings in the third quarter of 2022.

簡而言之，我們對近期新屋銷售的改善感到鼓舞。根據我們銷售辦事處的反饋，買家一直在響應抵押貸款利率的下降。與這個想法一致，我想補充一點，利率回購仍然是我們客戶的首要激勵措施之一。隨著抵押貸款利率的下降，我們為幫助提高整體負擔能力而採取的行動似乎越來越受歡迎。為了與我們尋找價格和轉變資產的戰略保持一致，我們繼續實施使消費者能夠在當今利率較高的環境中購房的計劃。這些計劃的成本，可能包括利率回購、較低的地塊溢價甚至降價，可以從我們更高的第四季度激勵措施中看出。第四季度，激勵措施增加到銷售價格的 4.3%。按順序計算，這高於 2022 年第三季度關閉時的 2.2%。

Beyond just adjusting incentives, in many of our active communities, we have already introduced smaller floor plans to help lower future prices and associated costs. The introduction of smaller floor plans is just part of a comprehensive effort to lower overall construction costs to help offset the pressure on sales price. The obvious question now is, will this strengthening of demand continue? Like all of us on this call, I've heard strong arguments on both sides, but the honest answer is that no one really knows. Homebuilders are optimist by nature, and I want to believe that the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing, but the risk of a recession is real. We're currently seeing buyers respond to lower rates and better pricing, but what happens as Fed actions weaken the employment picture is uncertain.

除了調整激勵措施外，在我們的許多活躍社區中，我們還引入了更小的樓層平面圖，以幫助降低未來價格和相關成本。引入較小的平面圖只是降低整體建築成本以幫助抵消銷售價格壓力的綜合努力的一部分。現在顯而易見的問題是，這種需求增強會持續下去嗎？就像我們所有參加這次電話會議的人一樣，我聽到了雙方的強烈爭論，但誠實的回答是沒有人真正知道。房屋建築商天生樂觀，我願意相信美聯儲可以協調軟著陸，但經濟衰退的風險是真實存在的。我們目前看到買家對較低的利率和更好的定價做出反應，但隨著美聯儲的行動削弱就業前景，會發生什麼情況尚不確定。

With today's volatile market dynamics, one of our frequent conversations with investors is around how Pulte plans to operate its business over the near term, given the long-time lines associated with land development and home construction, we need to set a plan, but be prepared to adjust as market dynamics require. At a high level, I'd like to share how we plan to operate the business for the foreseeable future.

在當今動蕩的市場動態下，我們與投資者的頻繁對話之一是圍繞 Pulte 計劃如何在短期內經營其業務，鑑於與土地開發和房屋建設相關的長期線，我們需要製定一個計劃，但準備根據市場動態需要進行調整。在較高的層面上，我想分享一下我們計劃如何在可預見的未來經營業務。

At our core, we remain a build-to-order builder, but our system operates best with a steady volume of production. As such, our plan is for a consistent cadence of new starts. This would include starting spec homes on a pace consistent with spec sales. We shared on prior calls that in the current environment, buyers are showing a preference for homes that have near-term delivery dates. As an example, in the fourth quarter, spec sales represented over 60% of our new orders.

在我們的核心，我們仍然是一個按訂單生產的製造商，但我們的系統在穩定的生產量下運行得最好。因此，我們的計劃是保持一致的新開始節奏。這將包括以與規格銷售一致的速度啟動規格房屋。我們在之前的電話會議上表示，在當前環境下，買家表現出對交付日期較短的房屋的偏好。例如，在第四季度，規格銷售占我們新訂單的 60% 以上。

Our recent sales show that we are finding the market clearing price using our strategic pricing tools to set price and incentives. Within today's sales environment, we will be intelligent about the process as we optimize our production machine and turn through our land assets. As always, our primary focus will be to deliver strong relative returns on invested capital through the cycle.

我們最近的銷售表明，我們正在使用我們的戰略定價工具來確定市場清算價格來設定價格和激勵措施。在當今的銷售環境中，我們將在優化生產機器和周轉土地資產時對流程保持智能。與往常一樣，我們的主要重點將是在整個週期內為投資資本提供強勁的相對回報。

In planning for 2023, we have assumed our current cycle time of 6-plus months will remain the reality for the next several months. Combining our planned starts, with our 18,000 homes currently in production, we expect to have a production universe that will allow us to close approximately 25,000 homes in 2023. We have goals in place to reduce cycle time, and our procurement and construction teams are already realizing success in cutting production days, but a lot of work remains to be done.

在規劃 2023 年時，我們假設當前 6 個多月的周期時間在未來幾個月仍將是現實。結合我們的計劃開工，加上我們目前正在生產的 18,000 套房屋，我們預計生產範圍將使我們能夠在 2023 年關閉大約 25,000 套房屋。我們制定了縮短週期時間的目標，我們的採購和施工團隊已經減產日取得成效，但任重道遠。

Buyer demand will ultimately determine what the coming year looks like, but this is our operating plan. We see this as a prudent, balanced approach that checks key strategic boxes, namely; we maintain a level of production in our communities, which is critical when negotiating with local trades and suppliers. We keep an appropriate level of specs in production while seeking to control finished inventory, and we continue to turn our assets, generate cash and position the business for the next leg of the housing cycle.

買家需求將最終決定來年的情況，但這是我們的運營計劃。我們認為這是一種審慎、平衡的方法，可以檢查關鍵的戰略方框，即；我們在我們的社區保持一定的生產水平，這在與當地貿易商和供應商談判時至關重要。我們在努力控製成品庫存的同時保持適當水平的生產規格，我們繼續轉變我們的資產，產生現金並為房地產週期的下一階段定位業務。

Given today's market dynamics, at this time, we will be providing guidance for our first quarter, but not the full year. And sharing our operational approach for 2023, we have hopefully conveyed a thoughtful process and conceptualize the opportunity we see for our business.

鑑於今天的市場動態，此時我們將提供第一季度的指導，而不是全年。在分享我們 2023 年的運營方法時，我們希望傳達了一個深思熟慮的過程，並將我們看到的業務機會概念化。

Let me now turn the call over to Bob for a detailed review of our fourth quarter results.

現在讓我把電話轉給鮑勃，讓他詳細審查我們第四季度的業績。

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. PulteGroup completed the year by delivering a strong fourth quarter results, the benefits of which can be seen throughout our financial statements. In my analysis of the company's operating and financial performance, I will review our reported numbers as well as our financials adjusted for the specific items Jim noted at the start of this call. PulteGroup's fourth quarter home sale revenues increased 20% over the last year to $5.1 billion. Higher revenues for the period were driven by a 3% increase in closings to 8,848 homes in combination with a 17% increase in average sales price to $571,000. The increase in average sales price in the quarter was driven by double-digit gains in pricing across all buyer groups.

謝謝，瑞安，早上好。 PulteGroup 以強勁的第四季度業績結束了這一年，其好處在我們的財務報表中隨處可見。在我對公司運營和財務業績的分析中，我將審查我們報告的數字以及根據吉姆在本次電話會議開始時提到的具體項目調整後的財務狀況。 PulteGroup 第四季度的房屋銷售收入比去年增長 20%，達到 51 億美元。同期收入增加的原因是成交量增加 3% 至 8,848 套，同時平均銷售價格上漲 17% 至 571,000 美元。本季度平均銷售價格的上漲是由所有買家群體的兩位數定價增長推動的。

Our closings for the quarter came in above our Q4 guide as we benefited from higher spec sales that closed in the quarter and a faster-than-anticipated recovery in our Florida operations following the impact of Hurricane Ian. The mix of closings in the fourth quarter was 36% first-time buyers, 39% move-up buyers and 25% active adult. This compares with last year's closings, which were comprised of 33% first-time, 42% move-up and 25% active adult. The increase in first-time closings is consistent with changes in our mix of communities and the greater availability of spec homes in our first-time buyer neighborhoods. Our spec strategy emphasizes production within our Centex brand as almost 60% of spec units are in communities targeting first-time buyers.

我們本季度的成交量高於我們的第四季度指導值，因為我們受益於本季度成交量的較高規格銷售額以及颶風伊恩影響後我們佛羅里達業務的恢復速度快於預期。第四季度交房的混合比例為 36% 的首次購房者、39% 的升級購房者和 25% 的活躍成年人。相比之下，去年的關閉包括 33% 的第一次、42% 的升級和 25% 的活躍成年人。首次關閉的增加與我們社區組合的變化以及我們首次購房者社區中規格房屋的可用性增加是一致的。我們的規格策略強調在我們的 Centex 品牌內生產，因為將近 60% 的規格單位位於針對首次購買者的社區。

In the quarter, we recorded net new orders of 3,964 homes, which is a decrease of 41% from the same period last year. The decline in orders for the period reflects the ongoing softness in buyer demand caused by the significant increase in interest rates realized in '22 in combination with higher cancellations experienced in the period. As a percentage of sign-ups, the cancellation rate in the fourth quarter was 32% compared with 11% last year. Cancellations as a percentage of backlog at the beginning of the quarter totaled 11% in the fourth quarter this year compared with 4% in the fourth quarter last year.

本季度，我們錄得淨新訂單 3,964 套，較去年同期下降 41%。該期間訂單的下降反映了由於 22 年實現的利率顯著增加以及該期間取消訂單的增加導致買家需求持續疲軟。作為註冊的百分比，第四季度的取消率為 32%，而去年為 11%。本季度初取消訂單佔積壓訂單的百分比在今年第四季度總計為 11%，而去年第四季度為 4%。

I would note that in the 4 years prior to the pandemic, quarterly cancellations as a percentage of beginning period backlog averaged 10%, so Q4 cancellations in relation to backlog were in line with historic norms.

我會注意到，在大流行之前的 4 年裡，季度取消佔期初積壓的百分比平均為 10%，因此與積壓相關的第四季度取消符合歷史規範。

In the fourth quarter, our average community count was 850, which is up 8% from an average of 785 last year. Community count growth reflects new community openings as well as the slower closeout of certain neighborhoods. Based on planned community openings and closings, we expect our average community count in the first quarter of '23 to be flat sequentially or approximately 850 communities. For the remainder of '23, we expect quarterly community count to be up 5% to 10% over the comparable prior year quarter.

第四季度，我們的平均社區數量為 850 個，比去年的平均 785 個增長了 8%。社區數量的增長反映了新社區的開放以及某些社區的關閉速度較慢。根據計劃的社區開放和關閉，我們預計我們在 23 年第一季度的平均社區數量將連續持平或大約 850 個社區。對於 23 年的剩餘時間，我們預計季度社區數量將比去年同期增長 5% 至 10%。

By buyer group, fourth quarter orders to first-time buyers decreased 28% to 1,574, while move-up demand was lower by 56% to 1,241 homes and active adult declined 36% to 1,149 homes. As this has been widely discussed, housing demand remains under pressure as higher interest rates and years of price appreciation have stretched affordability for buyers.

按買家群體劃分，第四季度首次購房者的訂單減少 28% 至 1,574 套，升級需求下降 56% 至 1,241 套，活躍的成年人減少 36% 至 1,149 套。正如這已被廣泛討論的那樣，住房需求仍然面臨壓力，因為更高的利率和多年的價格上漲已經使購房者的承受能力吃緊。

We ended the quarter with a backlog of 12,169 homes with a value of $7.7 billion. This compares to the prior year backlog of 18,003 homes with a value of $9.9 billion. As Ryan discussed, our objective is to keep turning -- to keep inventory turning, which requires that we start an appropriate number of homes. In the fourth quarter, we started approximately 4,000 homes, which is down 50% from the fourth quarter of last year, and, on a sequential basis, down about 40% from the third quarter. We ended the fourth quarter with a total of 18,103 homes in production, of which 10% were finished. Of our total homes under construction, 43% were spec. This is slightly above our target of having specs comprised approximately 35% of our work in process, but given buyer preference for a quicker close, we are comfortable having a few more homes in production.

本季度末，我們積壓了 12,169 套房屋，價值 77 億美元。相比之下，去年積壓的房屋數量為 18,003 套，價值 99 億美元。正如瑞安所討論的那樣，我們的目標是保持周轉——保持庫存周轉，這要求我們開始建造適當數量的房屋。第四季度，我們開工了大約 4,000 套房屋，比去年第四季度下降了 50%，環比比第三季度下降了約 40%。我們在第四季度結束時共有 18,103 套房屋在生產中，其中 10% 已完工。在我們在建房屋總數中，43% 是規格房。這略高於我們的目標，即規格約占我們在製品的 35%，但考慮到買家偏好更快的交割，我們很樂意有更多的房屋投入生產。

Based on our production pipeline, we currently expect to deliver between 5,400 and 5,700 homes in the first quarter of the year. As Ryan indicated, for the full year, we will have the production potential to close approximately 25,000 homes. These production numbers assume a continuation of current construction cycle times.

根據我們的生產管道，我們目前預計在今年第一季度交付 5,400 至 5,700 套房屋。正如 Ryan 所指出的，全年，我們將有關閉大約 25,000 戶家庭的生產潛力。這些生產數字假定當前施工週期時間的延續。

Given the price of homes in backlog, the mix of homes we expect to close and the anticipated level of spec closings in Q1, we expect the average sales price for Q1 closings to be between $565,000 to $575,000. At the midpoint, this would be an increase of 12% over the first quarter of '22.

考慮到積壓房屋的價格、我們預計關閉的房屋組合以及第一季度的預期規格關閉水平，我們預計第一季度關閉的平均銷售價格在 565,000 美元至 575,000 美元之間。在中點，這將比 22 年第一季度增長 12%。

In the period, we reported gross margins of 28.8%, which remain near historic highs for the company. This represents an increase of 200 basis points over the comparable prior year period, although down sequentially from the 30.1% gross margin we delivered in the third quarter.

在此期間，我們報告的毛利率為 28.8%，仍接近公司的歷史高位。這比去年同期增加了 200 個基點，儘管比我們在第三季度實現的 30.1% 的毛利率有所下降。

Looking ahead, we expect to deliver another strong quarter with Q1 gross margins of 27%, which included the benefit of lower lumber costs due to the fall in lumber prices in the back half of '22. Any savings from ongoing renegotiation of labor and material contracts will be realized in future quarters, and we'll have to see how much of this work benefits our '23 versus our '24 closings.

展望未來，我們預計將迎來另一個強勁的季度，第一季度毛利率為 27%，其中包括由於 22 世紀下半年木材價格下跌而降低木材成本的好處。正在進行的勞動力和材料合同重新談判所帶來的任何節省都將在未來幾個季度實現，我們將不得不看看這項工作對我們的 23 年結束與 24 年結束有多少好處。

Our reported fourth quarter SG&A expense of $351 million, or 6.9% of home sale revenues, includes a net pretax benefit of $65 million from adjustments to insurance-related reserves recorded in the period. Exclusive of this benefit, our adjusted SG&A expense was $415 million or 8.2% of home sale revenues. In Q4 of last year, our reported SG&A expense of $344 million or 8.2% of home sale revenues included a net pretax benefit of $23 million from insurance-related reserve adjustments. Exclusive of that benefit, our adjusted SG&A expense was $367 million or 8.7% of home sale revenues.

我們報告的第四季度 SG&A 費用為 3.51 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 6.9%，其中包括來自該期間記錄的保險相關準備金調整的 6500 萬美元稅前淨收益。不包括這項福利，我們調整後的 SG&A 費用為 4.15 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 8.2%。去年第四季度，我們報告的 SG&A 費用為 3.44 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 8.2%，其中包括保險相關準備金調整帶來的 2300 萬美元稅前淨收益。排除該收益，我們調整後的 SG&A 費用為 3.67 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 8.7%。

With the pullback in overall housing demand, we have worked hard to ensure our overheads are properly aligned with today's tougher operating conditions. As such, we expect SG&A expense in Q1 to be in the range of 10.5% to 11% compared with 10.7% last year. In other words, even with lower closing volumes, we are in a position to realize overhead leverage that is comparable to '22.

隨著整體住房需求的回落，我們一直在努力確保我們的管理費用與當今更嚴峻的運營條件保持一致。因此，我們預計第一季度的 SG&A 費用將在 10.5% 至 11% 之間，而去年為 10.7%。換句話說，即使收盤量較低，我們也能夠實現與 22 年相當的間接槓桿。

Reported fourth quarter pretax income from our financial services operations was $24 million, down from $55 million last year. The decline in pretax income reflects both lower profitability per loan and an overall decrease in loan origination volumes as mortgage capture rate declined by 10 percentage points to 75%.

我們報告的第四季度金融服務業務稅前收入為 2400 萬美元，低於去年的 5500 萬美元。稅前收入的下降反映了每筆貸款的盈利能力下降以及貸款發放量的整體下降，因為抵押貸款捕獲率下降了 10 個百分點至 75%。

In the fourth quarter, we walked away from 21,000 auctioned lots and an associated $900 million in future land acquisition spend. As a result of these actions, we incurred a pretax charge of $31 million for the write-off of related pre-acquisition costs and deposits. This charge was offset by a pretax gain of $49 million in JV income associated with the sale of commercial property completed in the quarter.

在第四季度，我們放棄了 21,000 塊拍賣地塊和相關的 9 億美元未來土地收購支出。由於這些行動，我們產生了 3100 萬美元的稅前費用，用於沖銷相關的收購前成本和存款。這筆費用被與本季度完成的商業地產銷售相關的 4900 萬美元的合資企業收入的稅前收益所抵消。

Our reported tax expense for the fourth quarter was $282 million, which represents an effective tax rate of 24.2%. Our Q4 taxes included a $12 million charge associated with deferred tax valuation allowance adjustments recorded in the period. We expect our tax rate in the first quarter and for the full year in '23 to be 25%. On the bottom line, our reported net income for the fourth quarter was $882 million or $3.85 per share.

我們報告的第四季度稅費為 2.82 億美元，有效稅率為 24.2%。我們第四季度的稅收包括與該期間記錄的遞延稅估值津貼調整相關的 1200 萬美元費用。我們預計第一季度和 23 年全年的稅率為 25%。最重要的是，我們報告的第四季度淨收入為 8.82 億美元或每股 3.85 美元。

On an adjusted basis, the company's net income was $832 million or $3.63 per share. These results compare with prior year reported net income of $663 million or $2.61 per share, and adjusted net income of $637 million or $2.51 per share.

在調整後的基礎上，該公司的淨收入為 8.32 億美元或每股 3.63 美元。這些結果與上一年報告的淨收入 6.63 億美元或每股 2.61 美元以及調整後的淨收入 6.37 億美元或每股 2.51 美元相比。

Moving past the income statement, we invested $1.1 billion in land acquisition and development in the fourth quarter, with almost 65% of this spend for development of existing land assets. For the full year, we invested a total of $4.5 billion in land, including $1.9 billion of acquisition and $2.6 billion of development spend.

除了損益表，我們在第四季度投資了 11 億美元用於土地收購和開發，其中近 65% 用於開發現有土地資產。全年，我們在土地上的投資總額為 45 億美元，其中包括 19 億美元的收購和 26 億美元的開發支出。

Given recent decisions to exit certain option land positions, we ended the year with 211,000 lots under control, which is down 8% from last year and down 13% from the recent Q2 peak of 243,000 lots. With the decision to drop option lot deals over the past 2 quarters, owned lots currently represent 52% of lots under control.

鑑於最近決定退出某些期權土地頭寸，我們在年底控制了 211,000 塊土地，比去年下降了 8%，比最近第二季度的峰值 243,000 塊下降了 13%。隨著過去兩個季度放棄期權交易的決定，自有地塊目前佔受控地塊的 52%。

As we have discussed on prior earnings calls, given the slowdown in overall housing activity, we plan to dramatically lower our land spend in 2023. At this time, we expect our total land investment to be approximately $3.3 billion, with an estimated 65% of these dollars going toward development of owned land positions. Along with investing in the business, we continue to allocate capital back to our shareholders. In the fourth quarter, we repurchased 2.4 million common shares at a cost of $100 million for an average price of $41.81 per share. PulteGroup continues to maintain one of the most active share repurchase programs in the industry, having repurchased 24.2 million shares of common stock in 2022, or almost 10% of our shares outstanding, for $1.1 billion at an average cost of $44.48 per share.

正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上討論的那樣，鑑於整體住房活動放緩，我們計劃在 2023 年大幅降低土地支出。目前，我們預計土地總投資約為 33 億美元，估計佔總投資的 65%這些美元用於開發自有土地。在投資業務的同時，我們繼續向股東分配資本。第四季度，我們以 1 億美元的成本以每股 41.81 美元的平均價格回購了 240 萬股普通股。 PulteGroup 繼續保持業內最活躍的股票回購計劃之一，在 2022 年以 11 億美元的價格回購了 2420 萬股普通股，占我們已發行股票的近 10%，平均成本為每股 44.48 美元。

In 2022, we returned over $1.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. After allocating capital to the business and our shareholders, we ended the quarter with $1.1 billion of cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 9.6%. On a gross basis, our debt-to-capital ratio was 18.7%, which is down from 21.3% last year.

2022 年，我們通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了超過 12 億美元。在將資本分配給業務和我們的股東後，我們在本季度結束時擁有 11 億美元的現金和 9.6% 的淨債務資本比率。按總額計算，我們的債務資本比率為 18.7%，低於去年的 21.3%。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan for some final comments.

現在讓我把電話轉回給 Ryan，請他作最後的評論。

Thanks, Bob. For all the financial success that we realized in 2022, I can tell you it was a hard year to navigate. When the year started out, we had almost unlimited demand, but supply chain disruptions resulted in countless bottlenecks and extended build cycles. As the year progressed and rising interest rates push more and more consumers to the sidelines, we initiated a series of operational changes as we quickly adapted to the more competitive market conditions.

謝謝，鮑勃。儘管我們在 2022 年取得了財務上的成功，但我可以告訴你，這是艱難的一年。年初時，我們的需求幾乎是無限的，但供應鏈中斷導致無數瓶頸和延長的構建週期。隨著時間的推移和不斷上升的利率將越來越多的消費者推到場外，我們啟動了一系列運營變革，以迅速適應競爭更加激烈的市場條件。

If there is a silver lining in today's challenging demand environment, I think we have what can be viewed as favorable supply -- as a favorable supply dynamic. Recent figures from the National Association of Realtors show the inventory of existing homes for sale at 970,000, or only 2.9 months of supply. Existing homes are our industry's biggest source of competition, so such limited supply is certainly advantageous. As we sit here today, I am incrementally more optimistic about the year ahead, but as the expression goes, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. I think what we have done -- well, I think that we have done that in terms of how we've set up our business.

如果在當今充滿挑戰的需求環境中有一線希望，我認為我們擁有可以被視為有利供應的東西——有利的供應動態。全國房地產經紀人協會的最新數據顯示，現有待售房屋的存量為 970,000 套，即只有 2.9 個月的供應量。現有房屋是我們行業最大的競爭來源，因此這種有限的供應無疑是有利的。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我對未來的一年越來越樂觀，但正如俗話說的那樣，抱最好的希望，做最壞的打算。我認為我們所做的 - 好吧，我認為我們已經在我們如何建立我們的業務方面做到了這一點。

We head into 2023 with enough units in production to meet demand and with production plans will allow us to continue turning assets. At the same time, we don't have an excess of spec homes in the system that will cause incremental self-inflicted pressures. We are in a strong competitive position within the markets that we serve. We are typically among the biggest builders in our markets, and our ability to serve all price points provides opportunities with land sellers and municipalities.

到 2023 年，我們將有足夠的生產單位來滿足需求，並且生產計劃將使我們能夠繼續周轉資產。同時，我們的系統中沒有過多的規格房屋，這會導致增加自我施加的壓力。我們在所服務的市場中處於強有力的競爭地位。我們通常是我們市場上最大的建築商之一，我們服務於所有價位的能力為土地賣家和市政當局提供了機會。

And finally, we are in exceptional financial position with plenty of liquidity, no debt maturities for 3 years and expectations for another year of strong cash flow. There are opportunities to be seized upon even in challenging market conditions. When the time comes, PulteGroup will have the flexibility to take advantage of those opportunities.

最後，我們的財務狀況非常出色，流動性充足，3 年內沒有到期債務，預計下一年會有強勁的現金流。即使在充滿挑戰的市場條件下，也有機會可以抓住。當時機成熟時，PulteGroup 將可以靈活地利用這些機會。

I will close by again thanking the entire PulteGroup organization for their work this past year to build outstanding homes and to provide an exceptional customer experience. Let me now turn the call back to Jim Zeumer.

最後，我將再次感謝整個 PulteGroup 組織在過去一年中所做的工作，以建造出色的房屋並提供卓越的客戶體驗。現在讓我把電話轉回 Jim Zeumer。

Thanks, Ryan. We're now prepared to open the call for questions so we can get to as many questions as possible during the time remaining. We ask that you limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up.

謝謝，瑞安。我們現在準備好開始提問，這樣我們就可以在剩餘時間內回答盡可能多的問題。我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個跟進。

Devon, if you'll open it up for questions, we're all set.

Devon，如果你願意打開它提問，我們都準備好了。

Our first question comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

The first one is, can you just give us an idea of the margin on quick move-in homes compared to the company average?

第一個是，您能告訴我們快速入住房屋與公司平均水平相比的利潤率嗎？

Yes. It's interesting. It depends, and I hate to give you the mix, but geographically, it makes a difference. Obviously, we're going to see stronger performance in markets where we're seeing stronger sales activity, I think the Southeast of Florida, specs out west are a little bit more challenged. So it really does matter where. On balance, we've seen -- interestingly, if you think about our Q4 guide for margins, we outperformed it. Part of that was that geographic mix. We've talked about getting more volume out of Florida, which is one of our better margin performances, but also because of the relative strength of spec sales, we did a little bit better on those than we anticipated when we gave the guide.

是的。這真有趣。這取決於，我不想給你混合，但在地理上，它有所作為。顯然，我們將看到銷售活動更強勁的市場表現更強勁，我認為佛羅里達州東南部，西部的規格更具挑戰性。所以在哪裡真的很重要。總的來說，我們已經看到——有趣的是，如果你考慮一下我們的第四季度利潤率指南，我們的表現優於它。其中一部分是地理組合。我們已經討論過從佛羅里達州獲得更多銷量，這是我們更好的利潤率表現之一，但也由於規格銷售的相對實力，我們在這些方面的表現比我們提供指南時預期的要好一些。

Got you. Okay. And then it was the commentary on demand getting better through the quarter and into January was interesting and encouraging. Can you just give us an idea of how broad-based that demand was? I mean, was it limited to certain markets? Or was it pretty much across your footprint?

明白了好的。然後是關於需求在整個季度和 1 月份變得更好的評論是有趣和令人鼓舞的。你能告訴我們這種需求的基礎有多廣泛嗎？我的意思是，它是否僅限於某些市場？或者它幾乎跨越了你的足跡？

John, the improvement really came across the footprint on a relative basis. Speaking geographically, we continue to see strength in Florida and the Southeast. As Bob just highlighted in the last answer, we continue to see great performance out of the Texas markets. And probably one of the more encouraging signs that we've seen as we started to see our Western markets, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Southern California, Northern California, we started to see those markets come back to life. So kind of broad-based improvement across the footprint.

約翰，改進確實是在相對基礎上實現的。從地理上講，我們繼續看到佛羅里達州和東南部的實力。正如 Bob 在上一個回答中強調的那樣，我們繼續看到德克薩斯市場的出色表現。當我們開始看到我們的西方市場、鳳凰城、拉斯維加斯、南加州、北加州時，我們看到的可能是更令人鼓舞的跡象之一，我們開始看到這些市場恢復生機。如此廣泛的足跡改進。

Our next question comes from Truman Patterson with Wolf Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolf Research 的 Truman Patterson。

First question, you have lower lumber costs beginning to flow through the P&L and perhaps some other stick and brick cost savings. We also have likely higher land costs and perhaps some uncertainty around pricing. I'm hoping you can help us think through first quarter gross margins. Do you think it will be likely the low point for the year given the kind of sequential improvement in demand that you've seen?

第一個問題，你有較低的木材成本開始通過損益表流動，也許還有一些其他的木棍和磚塊成本節省。我們也可能有更高的土地成本和定價方面的一些不確定性。我希望你能幫助我們考慮第一季度的毛利率。鑑於您所看到的需求連續改善，您認為這可能是今年的低點嗎？

Truman, I think you've highlighted the variables that are out there. And at this point in time, we've given a guide for Q1. And as I mentioned in my comments, that's the extent of kind of what we're going to provide at this point.

杜魯門，我想你已經強調了那裡的變量。在這個時間點，我們已經為第一季度提供了指南。正如我在評論中提到的，這就是我們此時要提供的範圍。

Okay. Got you. Understood on that. And how are tertiary submarkets within metros performing relative to closer-end communities maybe in entry-level move-up segments? I'm thinking that the prior remote worker who work-from-home tailwinds might be leveling off here, which might negatively impact the tertiary markets, but at the same time, affordability is a bit squeezed and the tertiary markets provide a better value proposition.

好的。明白了明白這一點。相對於入門級升級細分市場中的更近端社區，都市圈內的三級子市場表現如何？我認為之前在家工作的遠程工作者可能會在這裡趨於平穩，這可能會對三級市場產生負面影響，但與此同時，負擔能力受到擠壓，三級市場提供了更好的價值主張.

Well, Truman, I think, as we've talked about with our land acquisition strategy over the years, we've attempted to stay closer into the core, closer to the job market and some of the retail sectors. We certainly have a sizable first-time entry-level buyer business and affordability there matters. So we do have communities that are more in the growth rings and on the -- in the tertiary areas, but I don't believe that our land footprint goes out quite as far as maybe some of our competitors. So what I'd tell you is it kind of depends on -- it's a community-by-community situation that is, as much as anything, from a margin standpoint, dependent on the structure of the land deal. And like, I think, you've heard from us in a lot of situations, we don't underwrite the gross margin, we really focus on underwriting to return.

好吧，杜魯門，我認為，正如我們多年來談到我們的土地收購戰略一樣，我們一直試圖更接近核心，更接近就業市場和一些零售業。我們當然有相當大的首次入門級買家業務，而且負擔能力很重要。所以我們確實有更多的社區在年輪和 - 在第三領域，但我不相信我們的土地足跡可能與我們的一些競爭對手一樣遠。所以我要告訴你的是，它有點取決於——這是一個社區對社區的情況，從利潤的角度來看，這與土地交易的結構一樣多。而且，我想，你在很多情況下都聽過我們的消息，我們不承銷毛利率，我們真正專注於承銷回報。

But going back to the question that John asked, we've seen relative strength and improvement in kind of sales across the board. That's not just geographically speaking, but that's community by community as well.

但回到約翰提出的問題，我們已經看到了全面銷售的相對實力和改善。這不僅僅是從地理上講，而且也是一個社區一個社區。

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Nice execution, and thanks for the time here. Ryan, just on the margin. I know you're not guiding beyond 1Q, but I'm just curious if you could talk through a little bit. When I compare you guys to some of your larger competitors, your margins right now are outperforming by a pretty wide level 400, 500 basis points. And while I understand there might be a little bit of a lag there given they're maybe more spec focused than you are, it's still a little bit surprising to see the outperformance. So could you talk a little bit about my understanding you're not going to give guidance, is that just a timing issue? Or is there something you guys are doing that is resulting in that outperformance, in your opinion?

執行得很好，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間。瑞安，就在邊緣。我知道您不會指導超過 1Q 的內容，但我很好奇您是否可以談一談。當我將你們與一些較大的競爭對手進行比較時，你們現在的利潤率要高出 400、500 個基點。雖然我知道可能會有一點滯後，因為他們可能比你更注重規格，但看到出色的表現仍然有點令人驚訝。那麼你能談談我對你不會提供指導的理解嗎，這只是一個時間問題嗎？或者在您看來，你們正在做的事情是否導致了這種出色的表現？

Yes, Alan, thanks for the question. I appreciate it, and I think -- for those that have followed us for years, yourself in that category, I think everybody is aware that we've implemented a number of really important kind of changes in the way that we operate our business that has driven higher returns over the housing cycle, and certainly, higher margins have been part of that. Those initiatives have touched everything from the way that we design our homes and communities to how we price and sell homes. And a really big part of it is the quality of the dirt that we're buying. A little bit back to the question that Truman announced a minute ago. And the way that we have evaluated and underwritten risk and the associated requisite returns that we ask for as part of the risk associated with those communities. So I think you're seeing -- I think you're certainly seeing that pay off.

是的，艾倫，謝謝你的提問。我很感激，而且我認為 - 對於那些多年來一直關注我們的人，你自己屬於這一類，我想每個人都知道我們已經在我們經營業務的方式上實施了一些非常重要的變化在房地產週期中推動了更高的回報，當然，更高的利潤率也是其中的一部分。這些舉措涉及方方面面，從我們設計房屋和社區的方式到我們定價和銷售房屋的方式。其中很大一部分是我們購買的泥土的質量。稍微回到杜魯門一分鐘前宣布的問題。以及我們評估和承保風險的方式以及我們要求的相關必要回報，作為與這些社區相關的風險的一部分。所以我認為你看到了——我認為你肯定看到了回報。

We have highlighted on this call in my prepared remarks, the way that we're going to run the business in this environment, which is a tougher operating environment. And we really feel it's important to turn our inventory to get good flow-through and to sell and define kind of a market clearing price. So while we believe that the operating model that we have is a great one, and we're really reaping the rewards from, but we won't be immune to some of the market pressures that are certainly out there. But we think that we're an efficient homebuilder, and we're going to continue to be very disciplined and prudent in the way that we're making pricing decisions.

我們在我準備好的發言中強調了這次電話會議，我們將在這個環境中經營業務的方式，這是一個更艱難的運營環境。而且我們真的覺得重要的是要轉變我們的庫存以獲得良好的流通並出售和定義某種市場清算價格。因此，雖然我們相信我們擁有的運營模式是一個很好的模式，而且我們確實從中獲得了回報，但我們也無法倖免於一些肯定存在的市場壓力。但我們認為我們是一家高效的房屋建築商，我們將繼續以非常有紀律和謹慎的方式製定定價決策。

Great. I appreciate all the thoughts there. Second question on the cost side. I think, over the last few months, we've heard a lot of optimism from homebuilders about their ability to renegotiate costs lower, especially as starts have pulled back as much as they have. And what was shaping up to be a pretty volume outlook in '23. And your comments are similar to what we've heard from others that the market seems to be showing some improvement here.

偉大的。我很欣賞那裡的所有想法。關於成本方面的第二個問題。我認為，在過去的幾個月裡，我們從房屋建築商那裡聽到了很多關於他們重新協商降低成本的能力的樂觀情緒，尤其是在開工率下降的情況下。 23 年的銷量前景正在形成。你的評論與我們從其他人那裡聽到的類似，即市場似乎在這方面有所改善。

I can't help but look at lumber costs up 40% year-to-date and imagining that perhaps that might be filtering through to some other inputs as well. So what's your current thinking on the cost side? Are you feeling a little bit less bullish about your ability to kind of push back on costs now given what seems to be a strengthening marketplace? Or do you still feel like you can find some relief there as the year goes on?

我情不自禁地看到今年迄今為止木材成本上漲了 40%，並想像這可能也會影響到其他一些投入。那麼您目前在成本方面的想法是什麼？鑑於市場似乎正在走強，您現在是否對自己縮減成本的能力感到不那麼樂觀了？或者隨著時間的流逝，您仍然覺得可以在那裡找到一些解脫嗎？

Well, Alan, it's going to be tricky, and I'll break down a couple of components that we're looking at on the cost side. We've talked a lot about affordability being the biggest challenge that we've had over the last several quarters. And I think affordability is going to continue to be the theme as we move through kind of 2023, not just in housing, but I think in all consumer spending, consumers are feeling the affordability pinch, and it's part of the reason that we've worked so hard to find prices that we believe help to address some of that affordability pinch. With that comes the cost side that you're appropriately highlighting. We have certainly seen and we've gotten very positive reception from our trade partners around the front end of the house as they've started to see a slowdown in new starts and kind of permits pulled. We've been collaborative in talking about what we're seeing and hearing from consumers. And they really -- they've worked to help reduce costs kind of as we've reduced our prices as well.

好吧，艾倫，這會很棘手，我將分解我們在成本方面考慮的幾個組成部分。我們已經談了很多關於負擔能力是我們在過去幾個季度中遇到的最大挑戰。而且我認為，隨著我們度過 2023 年，負擔能力將繼續成為主題，不僅僅是在住房方面，而且我認為在所有消費支出中，消費者都感受到了負擔能力的壓力，這是我們已經努力尋找我們認為有助於解決部分負擔能力問題的價格。隨之而來的是您適當強調的成本方面。我們當然已經看到並且我們已經從我們的貿易夥伴那裡得到了非常積極的接待，因為他們已經開始看到新開工放緩和取消某種許可。我們一直在合作談論我們從消費者那裡看到和聽到的內容。他們真的 - 他們已經努力幫助降低成本，就像我們也降低了價格一樣。

We've seen a lot of progress with lumber. That's certainly a commodity and those things can kind of change. So we'll keep an eye on that. Probably the thing that I would tell you is going to be hardest on the cost side is the labor side of things. And that's the piece that I think will be sticky. Those wage increases have been real, and I think once those wage increases have been provided or given, they're hard to get back. Not impossible, but the material side -- not saying the material side will be easy, but I think we'll likely have more success or easier success on the material side than we will labor. So time will tell as the year plays out. As I highlighted in some of my remarks, we've got some really aggressive goals that our procurement teams are working on to reduce overall costs.

我們已經看到木材取得了很大進步。那當然是一種商品，這些東西可能會有所改變。所以我們會密切關注這一點。也許我要告訴你的是，在成本方面最困難的是事情的勞動力方面。這就是我認為會很粘的部分。這些工資增長是真實的，我認為一旦提供或給予這些工資增長，就很難收回。並非不可能，但在物質方面——並不是說物質方面會很容易，但我認為我們在物質方面可能會比我們努力取得更多或更容易的成功。所以時間會證明這一年的結束。正如我在一些評論中強調的那樣，我們有一些非常積極的目標，我們的採購團隊正在努力實現這些目標以降低總體成本。

Got it. Just if I could speak in one last one there. So on the lumber side, I just want to make sure I understand the timing of this. You mentioned that you're benefiting now on 1Q deliveries from the pullback we saw last year. Assuming this 40% increase kind of holds here or maybe even goes a little bit higher, when would that eventually be a headwind to your margins? Would that be kind of a second half of this year type impact?

知道了。就好像我能在那裡最後一個發言。所以在木材方面，我只是想確保我了解這件事的時機。你提到你現在從我們去年看到的回調中受益於第一季度的交付。假設這 40% 的增長保持在這裡，甚至可能更高一點，那最終什麼時候會對你的利潤率產生不利影響？這會是今年下半年的影響嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Efficient, very efficient answer.

高效，非常有效的答案。

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

I wanted to circle back to the gross margins in the fourth quarter and the first quarter guide. And as Alan referenced, you have a significant gap positively in your favor, obviously relative to the rest of the industry at this point. And it's interesting that, obviously, 1 or 2 quarters doesn't make a trend, but when you look back in prior years, the historical gap of gross margins was in the 200 to 250 bps range, and now we're talking double that if not more. I just wanted to make sure because I think it would be helpful for investors to kind of understand. If there isn't any type of kind of short-term actions or things within the mix or relative to what you have in backlog that if there's any reason that there's some unusual short-term items that are helping the gross margins. Because we all kind of remember the comments you made last quarter of not being margin proud, and you didn't have a significantly lower order growth number than we were looking for, but just wanted to understand kind of some of the puts and takes there, and if you're doing anything significantly different in the industry in the marketplace that might allow this larger gap to continue?

我想回到第四季度和第一季度指南的毛利率。正如艾倫所提到的那樣，你在積極方面有很大的差距，顯然相對於目前的行業其他人而言。有趣的是，顯然 1 或 2 個季度不會形成趨勢，但當你回顧前幾年時，毛利率的歷史差距在 200 到 250 個基點之間，現在我們談論的是兩倍如果不是更多的話。我只是想確定一下，因為我認為這對投資者有所了解會有所幫助。如果混合中沒有任何類型的短期行動或事情或與積壓的事情相關，那麼如果有任何理由表明有一些不尋常的短期項目有助於提高毛利率。因為我們都記得你上個季度發表的關於不以保證金為榮的評論，而且你的訂單增長數量沒有明顯低於我們所期待的，但只是想了解一些看跌期權和獲取那裡的東西，如果你在市場上的行業中做任何顯著不同的事情可能會讓這種更大的差距繼續下去？

Yes, Mike, I think I understand your question. Hopefully, you appreciate when we provide commentary on our results, if there are unusual things happening, we tell you about them, whether it's in the form of an adjustment or when we present adjusted data. And to answer your question as directly as I can, there's nothing unusual happening in our margin in the fourth quarter. We're not projecting anything unusual to happen in our margin in the first quarter other than the homes that we're closing. I think if you reflect on the answer that Ryan gave, and I can't comment on the relativity to other people's margins, what they're doing pricing lines, what we're doing pricing lines, we can only comment on what we're doing, which is trying to run a thoughtful business, get to a point where we can offer affordability to the consumer where we can earn a return. So I don't know if that gets where you need to be, but there's nothing unusual happening in our margins.

是的，邁克，我想我理解你的問題。希望您欣賞我們對結果的評論，如果發生不尋常的事情，我們會告訴您它們，無論是調整的形式還是我們提供調整後的數據。盡可能直接地回答你的問題，第四季度我們的利潤率沒有發生任何異常情況。除了我們正在關閉的房屋外，我們預計第一季度的利潤率不會發生任何異常情況。我想如果你反思 Ryan 給出的答案，我不能評論與其他人的利潤率的相關性，他們在做什麼定價線，我們在做什麼定價線，我們只能評論我們'正在做的事情，也就是試圖經營一家有思想的企業，達到我們可以為消費者提供負擔得起的價格，從而獲得回報的地步。所以我不知道這是否達到了你需要的程度，但我們的利潤率並沒有發生任何異常情況。

Yes, Mike, and let me maybe just pick up on the comment you made about the comment I made last quarter about not being margin proud, that's still 100% accurate. And we've tried to reflect that in the way I laid out, we are going to be operating our business, which is to find a market price that will allow us to maintain a predictable and consistent turn of our inventory. It's the way that we can keep this business running efficiently and deliver the high returns that Bob talked about. So while we're -- we would certainly endeavor to do much better from a comparable sales standpoint than what we had in the fourth quarter. I think relative to our peer set, you can see that we're selling homes. And we're going to continue to make sure that we're priced competitively with our market offerings.

是的，邁克，讓我也許只是接受你對我上個季度發表的關於不以保證金為榮的評論的評論，這仍然是 100% 準確的。我們試圖以我提出的方式反映這一點，我們將經營我們的業務，即找到一個市場價格，使我們能夠保持可預測和一致的庫存周轉。這是我們可以保持這項業務高效運行並提供 Bob 談到的高回報的方式。因此，雖然我們 - 從可比銷售的角度來看，我們肯定會努力比第四季度做得更好。我認為相對於我們的同行，你可以看到我們在賣房子。我們將繼續確保我們的定價與我們的市場產品相比具有競爭力。

Yes. No, I appreciate that. I mean, I guess, I was trying to get to something you don't want to give, which is second quarter guidance, and we understand that. But I think people would kind of think, "Okay, you have a significant positive gap here as there are shoe to drop maybe in the backlog that might allow that gap to revert to normal, but it doesn't sound like that's the case.

是的。不，我很感激。我的意思是，我想，我試圖得到你不想給出的東西，這是第二季度的指導，我們理解這一點。但我認為人們會想，“好吧，你在這裡有一個顯著的正差距，因為積壓的訂單中可能有一些鞋子可以放下，這可能會讓這個差距恢復正常，但事實並非如此。

I guess secondly, the SG&A guidance was pretty encouraging as well given the decline in closings yet the midpoint being similar to a year ago. So just wanted to delve into that a little bit. If you could kind of talk about what you're doing on the cost side there in terms of either headcount or other cost management? And if we were to expect a similar type of percentage decline in the coming quarters, given what you've been able to do in the first quarter, is that something where we could see a similar SG&A in spite of a 5%, 10% or, let's say, 10-ish percent decline in closings?

我想其次，SG&A 指南也非常令人鼓舞，因為成交量有所下降，但中點與一年前相似。所以只是想深入研究一下。如果你能談談你在成本方面在員工人數或其他成本管理方面所做的工作？如果我們預計未來幾個季度會出現類似的百分比下降，考慮到你在第一季度所做的，我們可以看到類似的 SG&A，儘管下降了 5%、10%或者，比方說，成交量下降 10%？

Yes, Mike, hopefully, you can appreciate, we -- on our most recent call, had highlighted we would be looking at our overheads to make sure that they are efficient given the scale of the business that we are operating today. We have taken actions on costs, and they are varied by market depending on how that particular market is performing. I think you can and should expect us to always do that, right? I mean we are always looking at it, are we running an efficient business? As it relates to beyond the first quarter, like everything else, there's -- it's a volatile -- not volatile, but it's a market in flux. We haven't provided a guide on that. But I can tell you, we'll be looking at our overheads as part of -- as we see the business develop, we'll develop our plans around overhead spend as well.

是的，邁克，希望你能理解，我們——在我們最近的電話會議上，強調我們將關注我們的管理費用，以確保它們在考慮到我們今天經營的業務規模的情況下是有效的。我們已經對成本採取了行動，它們因市場而異，具體取決於特定市場的表現。我認為您可以而且應該期望我們始終這樣做，對嗎？我的意思是我們一直在關注它，我們是否在經營一家高效的企業？由於它與第一季度之後相關，就像其他一切一樣，有 - 這是一個波動 - 不是波動，但它是一個不斷變化的市場。我們沒有提供這方面的指南。但我可以告訴你，我們將把我們的間接費用視為一部分——隨著我們看到業務的發展，我們也會圍繞間接費用制定我們的計劃。

Right. Just one last quick one, if I could. It's actually kind of also in response to clarification on a prior sneaking question. When you talk about the lumber costs being up year-to-date and that impacting maybe the back half of the year, just wanted to get a sense from you. I mean, on a dollar basis, it's significantly lower than it -- the percentage is kind of obfuscates the dollar amount, which is somewhat lower on an absolute basis when you think about where lumber was.

正確的。如果可以的話，只是最後一個快速的。這實際上也是對先前偷偷摸摸的問題的澄清的回應。當你談到木材成本是年初至今的，並且可能會影響今年下半年時，我只是想從你那裡了解一下。我的意思是，以美元為基礎，它明顯低於它——這個百分比有點混淆了美元數量，當你考慮木材的位置時，它在絕對基礎上要低一些。

And secondly, I would presume there's also some amount of potential labor savings that might come through in the back half just given where the market has gone over the last 6 months and a 40% increase in lumber, all else equal sounds one way, but, to me, there's potential offsets to that. Just wanted to know what you thought if that makes sense to you?

其次，考慮到過去 6 個月市場的發展以及木材增加 40%，我認為後半部分也可能會節省一些潛在的勞動力，其他一切聽起來都是一樣的，但是，對我來說，這有可能抵消。只是想知道您的想法是否對您有意義？

Yes. So in real math, our lumber load was down about $10,000 in the deliveries. Q1 will have that benefit in it. That obviously impacts the margin guide that we gave. I think you heard Ryan say that labor is actually likely to be a little bit stickier so we don't really know if we're going to be able to drive those costs down. So -- and Ryan, I think, said it well. Lumber is a commodity. We typically have the pricing of the lumber impact our closings 2 quarters in the future, right, because when we order then build the house so the pricing we feel in the market, we feel in our income statement 2 or 3 quarters later. And that's true for most of our commodity pricing.

是的。所以在真正的數學中，我們的木材負載在交付中減少了大約 10,000 美元。 Q1 將在其中受益。這顯然會影響我們給出的保證金指南。我想你聽 Ryan 說過，勞動力實際上可能有點粘性，所以我們真的不知道我們是否能夠降低這些成本。所以——我認為 Ryan 說得很好。木材是一種商品。我們通常讓木材的定價影響我們未來 2 個季度的關閉，對，因為當我們訂購然後建造房屋時，我們在市場上感受到的定價，我們在 2 或 3 個季度後的損益表中感受到。我們的大部分商品定價都是如此。

And I would tell you, other than number, it's been an inflationary market, so we've seen pressure on pricing. Again, Ryan talked about labor being a little bit sticky. Obviously, we're working with our trades, and it's how we build, where we build, can we help them be more efficient in order to offer us a better price, and that's what our procurement teams are working on right now. And as we highlighted in the prepared commentary, that process, whatever it yields, will impact our margin profile likely late in '23 or even into early '24 by the time those price changes get negotiated and then start flowing into houses that would close with a 6-month build time, again, 2, 3 quarters from now.

我會告訴你，除了數字，這是一個通貨膨脹的市場，所以我們看到了定價壓力。瑞安再次談到分娩有點棘手。顯然，我們正在處理我們的交易，這就是我們的建設方式，我們在哪裡建設，我們能否幫助他們提高效率以便為我們提供更好的價格，這就是我們的採購團隊目前正在努力的事情。正如我們在準備好的評論中強調的那樣，這個過程，無論它產生什麼，都會影響我們的利潤率狀況，可能會在 23 世紀末甚至 24 年初影響到這些價格變化得到談判，然後開始流入將關閉的房屋6 個月的構建時間，再一次，從現在開始的 2、3 個季度。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

You mentioned, Ryan or Bob, the mix of deliveries 36%, first-time, 39% move-up, 25% active adult. Is your expectation for 25% or 23% on that 25,000-unit guide to be much different than that mix or shift in any meaningful way?

你提到過，Ryan 或 Bob，分娩的混合比例為 36%，第一次分娩，39% 升級，25% 活躍的成年人。您對 25,000 單元指南的 25% 或 23% 的期望是否與以任何有意義的方式混合或轉變有很大不同？

It's interesting, Carl. I don't know about meaningful, but certainly, you heard a couple of things hopefully from us. 60% of our sales have been spec. They are -- our spec inventory is largely in our first-time communities. Our community count, which was up 8% year-over-year, the preponderance of that is in first-time communities. The mix of our lots looking forward is a little bit richer towards first time. So I wouldn't call it a big shift. But yes, I would tell you that first-time has been -- even if you think about the sales paces in the quarter, the decline was the lowest in that first-time space. So that's where the activity is today.

這很有趣，卡爾。我不知道有意義，但可以肯定的是，您希望從我們這裡聽到一些事情。我們 60% 的銷售額都是規格化的。他們是 - 我們的規格清單主要在我們的首次社區中。我們的社區數量同比增長 8%，其中大部分是首次社區。我們期待的地段組合在第一次時會更豐富一些。所以我不會稱之為大轉變。但是，是的，我會告訴你，第一次是——即使你考慮本季度的銷售速度，降幅也是第一次空間中最低的。這就是今天的活動。

Okay. And then just on active adult, I'm curious how that business has trended. Has it been over the course of the last 4 months or so given that customer is more likely to pay cash, less worried about rates? We had a thin existing home sales environment, but the stock market has been tough. Could you just maybe chat a little bit about how that customer seems to be faring in an environment like this and contrast them with what you're seeing in the first time in the move-up market just attitudinally?

好的。然後就活躍的成年人而言，我很好奇該業務的趨勢如何。在過去 4 個月左右的時間裡，客戶是否更願意支付現金，而不那麼擔心利率？我們的現房銷售環境不佳，但股市一直很艱難。您能否談談該客戶在這樣的環境中的表現，並將他們與您第一次在升級市場中看到的態度進行對比？

Yes, Carl, it's a great question. And as I think you're aware, we're really proud of our Del Webb business and what it adds to kind of the overall mix of our portfolio. You highlighted that buyer tends to be probably most reactive, positive and negative, to volatility within the broader market. And there's certainly been a fair amount of kind of volatility lately that tends to cause that buyer to maybe pause as opposed to stop. On the positive side, you highlighted it's a thin resale inventory market. And so I certainly think that buyer has been able to sell their home. They've been able to sell their home, but I think at pretty good price. And on the buy side, they're not necessarily looking for a mortgage or the mortgage they're looking for is pretty small.

是的，卡爾，這是一個很好的問題。正如我認為你知道的那樣，我們為我們的 Del Webb 業務及其對我們投資組合整體組合的貢獻感到非常自豪。您強調指出，買家往往可能對大盤的波動反應最活躍，無論是積極的還是消極的。而且最近肯定有相當多的波動，往往會導致買家暫停而不是停止。從積極的方面來看，您強調這是一個清淡的轉售庫存市場。所以我當然認為買家已經能夠賣掉他們的房子。他們已經能夠賣掉他們的房子，但我認為價格相當不錯。在買方方面，他們不一定在尋找抵押貸款，或者他們正在尋找的抵押貸款規模很小。

So there are some puts and takes. A couple of other things that I'd highlight, relative to the other 2 buyer groups that we serve, they were -- the active adult was in the middle. They weren't quite as strong as the first-time buyer. Again, I think because they don't have to move, they've got options, they can be a little more patient. They were certainly more strong or did better than the move-up buyer, I think, mostly driven by the fact that they're not as rate sensitive. So on balance, Carl, we feel pretty good about the active adult space, kind of all things considered. And I think it will continue to be a strong benefit to the overall enterprise.

所以有一些投入和投入。我要強調的其他一些事情，相對於我們服務的其他 2 個買家群體，他們是——活躍的成年人處於中間。他們並不像首次購買者那麼強大。再一次，我認為因為他們不必搬家，他們有選擇，他們可以更有耐心一點。我認為，他們肯定比升級買家更強大或做得更好，主要是因為他們對利率不那麼敏感。所以總的來說，卡爾，我們對活躍的成人空間感覺很好，考慮了所有的事情。我認為這將繼續為整個企業帶來巨大利益。

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Anthony Pettinari。

Just following up on affordability. When we look at net order ASP, I guess, down 5% quarter-over-quarter, is it possible to break that out between incentives-based price reductions and kind of any mix shift that you saw?

只是跟進負擔能力。當我們查看淨訂單 ASP 時，我猜，環比下降 5%，是否有可能在基於激勵的降價和您看到的任何混合轉變之間打破這種關係？

Anthony, we haven't provided that, and so we're not going to reluctantly.

Anthony，我們還沒有提供，所以我們不會勉強提供。

Okay. Yes. I mean, directionally, is there a way to think about mix shift as being significant or not significant? I don't know if there's any kind of parameters you can put there.

好的。是的。我的意思是，從方向上講，有沒有一種方法可以將混合轉變視為重要或不重要？我不知道您是否可以將任何類型的參數放在那裡。

Yes. Anthony, I think what I would tell you is that it's fluid and sometimes things that start as kind of discounts off of a price or adjustments to lot premiums, sometimes those are rolled into kind of base price changes or base price reductions. And so the discount gets embedded over time into kind of what the new market price is. So, to Bob's point, we're not going to probably break it out at this point. But you can see, based on the incentive load that I talked about as well as the kind of reduction of base price, we are finding what we think is the market-clearing price to continue to sell homes.

是的。安東尼，我想我要告訴你的是，它是流動的，有時是從價格折扣或對地段溢價的調整開始的，有時這些是基礎價格變化或基礎價格降低。因此，隨著時間的推移，折扣會嵌入到新的市場價格中。所以，就 Bob 的觀點而言，我們現在可能不會打破它。但是你可以看到，根據我談到的激勵負荷以及基本價格的降低，我們正在尋找我們認為是繼續出售房屋的市場出清價格。

Okay, okay. Understood. And then just I think your selling homes on land that was partially or maybe even largely put under control prior to the pandemic. Just how long kind of roughly before you sort of exhaust that cost basis? And then can you just touch on impairment risk? I mean what kind of -- what level of margin or price pressure would you need to see before a community would come under review for impairment?

好吧好吧。明白了。然後我認為你在大流行之前部分或什至大部分受到控制的土地上出售房屋。在你耗盡成本基礎之前大約需要多長時間？然後你能談談減值風險嗎？我的意思是，在社區接受減值審查之前，您需要看到什麼樣的保證金或價格壓力水平？

Yes. So in answer to the first question, I think we, on average, been buying 3 to 4 years of land. When you add in development time lines, land is going to be hanging around 4 -- in the neighborhood of 4 years. And so if you think of that, pre-pandemic land would be kind of working its way through the system now. In response to the impairment question, obviously, we do impairment reviews every quarter. We're coming from a pretty strong margin position, but we always look and, for instance, in this most recent quarter, we actually looked at 16 communities for impairments and impaired 4 of them for about -- it was about $2 million in costs that flowed through the quarter, the other 12 did not. And so I think, absent some real structural shift in the market, I wouldn't anticipate a widespread kind of remark of our book.

是的。所以在回答第一個問題時，我認為我們平均購買了 3 到 4 年的土地。當你加上開發時間線時，土地將停留在 4 年左右——大約 4 年。因此，如果您考慮到這一點，大流行前的土地現在就會在系統中發揮作用。針對減值問題，顯然，我們每個季度都會進行減值審查。我們的利潤率相當高，但我們總是在尋找，例如，在最近這個季度，我們實際上研究了 16 個社區的減值情況，其中 4 個減值了大約——大約是 200 萬美元的成本流過這個季度，其他 12 個沒有。因此，我認為，如果市場沒有發生真正的結構性轉變，我預計不會對我們的書發表廣泛的評論。

I think you'll continue to see us as we look at this, evaluate communities one by one. And depending on the market conditions for that community, if we are in a position like we were with these 4 communities in the quarter, we'll address them.

我想你會繼續看到我們，因為我們會一一評估社區。根據該社區的市場狀況，如果我們處於與本季度這 4 個社區相同的位置，我們將解決這些問題。

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Ryan, Bob, I appreciate the color so far. A couple of follow-ups here. In terms of the incentives, I think -- and maybe I'm mistaken, but I think the incentives, given we're on closings, the increase to 4%. Can you just help us understand, you talked about the improvement in demand, but also making further adjustments on price incentives. What's your current incentive load on orders, if you can give us that?

瑞安，鮑勃，到目前為止，我很欣賞這種顏色。這裡有幾個後續行動。就激勵措施而言，我認為——也許我錯了，但我認為激勵措施，考慮到我們正在關閉，增加到 4%。你能不能幫我們理解一下，你談到了需求的改善，而且還對價格激勵措施進行了進一步的調整。如果你能給我們的話，你目前的訂單激勵負荷是多少？

Yes, Mike, we haven't. And to the comment that Ryan just made, I think he said it well. Pricing is dynamic in the market, right? And so if you adjust base pricing, it doesn't show as an incentive, it's just a lower sales price. And so on a relative basis, over time, we're in a position where we haven't given a guide on margin. We have given you what the incentive load went to, which was 4.3%, which is almost double, but there were price changes embedded in that, too, right? So all those things factor in, so the guide we've given for Q1 margin reflects everything that we've done to this point, and I think we'll leave it there.

是的，邁克，我們沒有。對於 Ryan 剛剛發表的評論，我認為他說得很好。定價在市場上是動態的，對吧？因此，如果你調整基本定價，它不會顯示為一種激勵，它只是一個較低的銷售價格。因此，相對而言，隨著時間的推移，我們處於一個沒有給出保證金指南的位置。我們已經向您提供了激勵負荷的情況，即 4.3%，幾乎翻了一番，但其中也包含價格變化，對吧？所以所有這些因素都考慮在內，所以我們為第一季度保證金提供的指南反映了我們到目前為止所做的一切，我想我們會把它留在那裡。

Got it. And then in terms of the improvement through the quarter, I appreciate you'd like to get into the specifics here, but since you gave the commentary about orders progressing through the quarter in January, can you just enlighten us on a year-on-year basis? Where did you -- where have you stood month-to-date in January? Help us understand the magnitude of improvement versus what you saw through the fourth quarter?

知道了。然後就本季度的改進而言，我很感激你想在這裡詳細說明，但既然你對 1 月份本季度的訂單進行了評論，你能不能告訴我們一年比-年基？你在哪裡 - 一月至今你在哪裡？幫助我們了解改進幅度與您在第四季度看到的情況相比？

Yes, Mike, we don't -- we've never kind of given that type of kind of inter-quarter trajectory. So we're going to leave it probably where we're at, which is we're optimistic and encouraged, not only based on what we saw things kind of progressed through the fourth quarter, which, as I mentioned, is pretty atypical to see the fourth quarter build strength, but we've certainly seen that strength also continue into January. So cautiously optimistic and rates in that period have certainly been lower. So we think that has contributed. We'll see kind of what the Fed does here in the next meeting. But all things considered, the operating environment, which we've -- I think we've talked (inaudible) going to be more difficult. We're pretty pleased with what we're seeing in the sales floor.

是的，邁克，我們沒有——我們從來沒有給出過那種類型的季度間軌跡。所以我們可能會把它留在我們所處的位置，這是我們樂觀和鼓舞的，不僅僅是基於我們看到的事情在第四季度取得的進展，正如我提到的那樣，這對於看到第四季度的實力增強，但我們當然看到這種實力也持續到一月份。如此謹慎樂觀，那個時期的利率肯定更低。所以我們認為這有所貢獻。我們將在下次會議上看到美聯儲在這裡做什麼。但考慮到所有因素，我們已經談過的運營環境——我認為我們已經談過（聽不清）會變得更加困難。我們對在銷售現場看到的情況感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Encouraging stuff regarding your comments on the market, and that certainly aligns with what we're hearing as well. I wanted to follow up on your comment about rates being a major driver to the improvement that you've been seeing. At this point, what share of would you say prospective buyers that you're seeing are having their mortgage application rejected? So you're actually not seeing them able to qualify compared with, let's say, what you would have seen in 2019?

關於您對市場的評論令人鼓舞，這當然也與我們所聽到的一致。我想跟進您關於費率是您所看到的改進的主要驅動力的評論。在這一點上，您認為有多少潛在買家的抵押貸款申請被拒絕？因此，與您在 2019 年看到的情況相比，您實際上並沒有看到他們能夠獲得資格？

And when you think longer term about your business, I think you said 25,000 starts or something like that. How much of that production do you expect to be used for rental purposes relative to, again, a normal time, let's say, 2019?

當你從長遠考慮你的業務時，我想你說的是 25,000 次啟動或類似的東西。相對於正常時間，比如 2019 年，您預計有多少產品將用於租賃目的？

So, Stephen, let me grab the first piece of that. I'll let Bob take the mortgage side. I would tell you rate -- the first, your comment on rate, rate is part of it. What's really driving kind of the sales trajectory right now is affordability, and rate is part of that equation. We've also done things in the way we've repriced, the way we've created incentive loans that have helped to solve affordability as well. So I think that's a big part of it. I'll skip to a couple of things that you said about production. Just to clarify so everybody is on the same page, we've got enough production based on what was already in production, plus what we intend to start that will deliver in this year such that our universe -- our production universe will be big enough such that we'd expect to have enough homes to close, approximately 25,000 homes.

所以，斯蒂芬，讓我抓住其中的第一部分。我會讓鮑勃負責抵押貸款。我會告訴你率——首先，你對率的評論，率是其中的一部分。現在真正推動銷售軌蹟的是負擔能力，而價格是該等式的一部分。我們還以重新定價的方式做事，我們創造激勵貸款的方式也有助於解決負擔能力問題。所以我認為這是其中很大一部分。我將跳到您所說的關於生產的幾件事。只是為了澄清一下，所以每個人都在同一頁上，我們已經根據已經在生產中的產品獲得了足夠的生產，加上我們打算開始的將在今年交付的產品，這樣我們的宇宙——我們的生產宇宙將足夠大這樣我們預計將有足夠的房屋關閉，大約 25,000 所房屋。

So -- and then from a rental -- your rental question, we've targeted -- if you go back to the announcement we made a few years ago that we want to do -- have roughly 7,500 homes over a 5-year period, kind of works out to be about 1,500 homes a year once we get fully kind of ramped up. So fairly small piece of our business, which is kind of how we strategically designed that. And I'll flip it to Bob, and he can talk about the mortgage piece.

所以——然後從租賃——你的租賃問題，我們的目標是——如果你回到我們幾年前發布的我們想要做的公告——在 5 年期間大約有 7,500 套房屋，一旦我們全面提升，每年大約可以建造 1,500 戶家庭。我們業務的一小部分，這就是我們戰略設計的方式。我會把它轉給鮑勃，他可以談談抵押貸款。

Yes. I guess the good news is, Stephen, we haven't seen a change really in people's ability to qualify, or we haven't seen people not being able to qualify increasing in a disproportionate way because of the rising rates. And I think more often than not, people know what they can spend. They're prequalifying as they go through the process. So over the -- I won't say that I know that versus 2019, but if you look back over the last year or 2 we have seen a pretty consistent cadence of the percentage of people that are canceling contracts as they can't qualify. It has not moved materially with the change in rates.

是的。我想好消息是，斯蒂芬，我們還沒有看到人們獲得資格的能力發生真正的變化，或者我們沒有看到由於利率上升而無法獲得資格的人以不成比例的方式增加。而且我認為人們往往知道他們可以花什麼。他們在整個過程中進行資格預審。所以在 - 我不會說我知道與 2019 年相比，但如果你回顧過去的一兩年，我們會看到取消合同的人數比例相當一致，因為他們不符合資格.它並沒有隨著利率的變化而發生實質性的變化。

Yes. That's really -- that's interesting and encouraging. I guess, Ryan, you just mentioned, you sort of were more specific about your comment about that 25,000-unit mark, and that's helpful. And what I gathered from your comment is that you may actually start fewer than 25,000, correct me if I'm wrong, and so you're addressing sort of your ability to sort of scale down your starts as you have because you actually, I think, peaked at like 35,000 and starts in 2021, I think it was. And so I guess my question regarding how you're thinking about the size of your business when things sort of normalize whenever that happens. How quickly could you reattain that level of 35,000 starts? What would it take? Is that something that you think that you could do relatively quickly if market conditions permitted it?

是的。這真的很有趣，也很鼓舞人心。我想，Ryan，你剛才提到，你對 25,000 單位大關的評論更具體，這很有幫助。我從你的評論中收集到的是，你實際上可能開始少於 25,000，如果我錯了請糾正我，所以你正在解決你的能力，因為你實際上，我我認為，峰值達到 35,000 並從 2021 年開始，我認為是。因此，我想我的問題是，當事情在某種程度上正常化時，你是如何考慮你的業務規模的。您能以多快的速度重新達到 35,000 次啟動的水平？這需要什麼？如果市場條件允許，你認為你可以相對較快地做到這一點嗎？

And then along with that, your lot count -- owned lot count declined again this quarter. And I'm curious, do you expect it to decline further into one -- the first half of 2023?

除此之外，您的手數——本季度擁有的手數再次下降。我很好奇，您是否預計它會進一步下降到 2023 年上半年？

Well, Stephen, so there's a lot to unpack there. I'll try and touch on as many as I can, and I'll ask Bob for a little bit of help here. I'll maybe start with your starts question. We've got 211,000 lots that we control, half of those are owned. We've highlighted with the amount of land that our land spend for the year, which is going to be down substantially from 2022 with the lion's share of kind of what we're going to spend in 2023 be in development. So on stuff that we've owned and we've purchased and we've underwritten and we're -- and we've got it in the kind of entitlement pipeline, we're going to spend the money to get those communities developed and open.

好吧，斯蒂芬，所以那裡有很多東西要打開。我會嘗試盡可能多地觸及，我會在這裡向 Bob 尋求一點幫助。我可能會從你的開始問題開始。我們擁有 211,000 個我們控制的地塊，其中一半是我們自己擁有的。我們已經強調了今年我們的土地花費的土地數量，這將從 2022 年開始大幅下降，而我們將在 2023 年花費的大部分土地用於開發。因此，對於我們擁有的、我們購買的、我們承保的以及我們——我們已經將其置於權利管道中的東西，我們將花錢來發展這些社區並打開。

So assuming the market cooperates and we see continued strength, I think that we've got the land pipeline such that we can ramp our production in concert with the consumer behavior. So I feel pretty good about that. And then there are a couple of other pieces there that you asked, Bob, -- maybe help me out here if there is anything that is answer.

因此，假設市場合作並且我們看到持續的強勁勢頭，我認為我們已經有了土地管道，這樣我們就可以根據消費者行為提高產量。所以我對此感覺很好。 Bob，然後還有其他一些你問過的問題——如果有什麼可以回答的話，也許可以幫我解決這個問題。

Lots and what we're going to see in Q1, if there would be further decline. I think it was the...

如果進一步下降，我們將在第一季度看到很多東西。我認為這是...

In lots owned -- decline in lots owned on this year or next quarter.

在擁有的土地上——今年或下個季度擁有的土地減少。

Well, like anything else, it depends on the demand environment, how many homes we close for lots, as an example, part of it will be things that are under option today, are we able to negotiate if we so desire a deferral of that. So it's hard to give you an answer on that, Stephen, because we're negotiating contracts all the time.

好吧，就像其他任何事情一樣，這取決於需求環境，例如我們關閉了多少房屋，例如，其中一部分將是今天可以選擇的事情，如果我們希望推遲，我們是否能夠談判.所以很難給你一個答案，斯蒂芬，因為我們一直在談判合同。

Okay. All right. And what I was also asking, Ryan, was how quickly could you reattain a level of 35,000 starts?

好的。好的。我還想問，瑞安，你能多快重新達到 35,000 次啟動的水平？

Yes. Stephen, that's what I was trying to address with my commentary around land. We have the land pipeline such that we can do it. So really to be dependent on how deep -- how deep is the consumer demand, and can we get the trades back on our job site? It's part of the reason that you've also heard us say that we're going to continue to maintain a level of production that allows us to retain those trades on our job sites. So I think they're linked. It's a hard question to answer because I don't know the answer on when demand is going to return to that level. But suffice it to say, I think we've got a production machine that's capable of delivering that if demand is there.

是的。斯蒂芬，這就是我在對陸地的評論中試圖解決的問題。我們擁有陸地管道，因此我們可以做到。所以真的要取決於消費者需求有多深，我們能否讓交易回到我們的工作現場？這也是您還聽到我們說我們將繼續保持一定的生產水平，使我們能夠在我們的工作現場保留這些交易的部分原因。所以我認為它們是有聯繫的。這是一個很難回答的問題，因為我不知道需求何時會恢復到那個水平。但我只想說，我認為我們有一台能夠在有需求的情況下交付的生產機器。

Our final question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

This is actually Charles Perron for Susan. I guess my first question is looking at the improvement in activity that you've seen through January, is it fair at this time to expect to sell space in Q1 to be in line with the pre-pandemic historical seasonality kind of a 30% to 40% improvement sequentially from 4Q to Q1?

這實際上是蘇珊的查爾斯·佩隆。我想我的第一個問題是看看您在 1 月份看到的活動改善情況，目前預計第一季度的銷售空間與大流行前的歷史季節性 30% 到 30% 保持一致是否公平？從第 4 季度到第 1 季度連續提高 40%？

We haven't provided any commentary on the sales environment. And what we've highlighted is that it's variable. So I wouldn't want to try and answer that question for you. That's -- you can decide that.

我們沒有對銷售環境發表任何評論。我們強調的是它是可變的。所以我不想嘗試為您回答這個問題。那是——你可以決定。

Okay. Okay. And second, you highlighted the potential to improve cycle times through the year. What are some of the key factors that could lead you to improvements in 2023, maybe between the material supply chain issues versus addressing labor availability challenges in the production?

好的。好的。其次，您強調了改善全年周期時間的潛力。哪些關鍵因素可能會導致您在 2023 年取得進步，也許是在材料供應鏈問題與解決生產中的勞動力可用性挑戰之間？

Well, there's less production overall in the supply chain. So I think we can be more efficient with the labor that's there. And then the biggest issue that contributed to an elongation of cycle times over the last couple of years was impacts to the pandemic. A big part of that was supply chain related. There was also a decent sized piece of it in terms of the work environment, work from home, safe work environment, less inspectors in the job sites -- on the job sites, less permit reviewers in municipal offices. I mean it was really a combination of things, but probably the biggest variable that is really -- I don't want to declare victory, but it's probably better than it's been over the last couple of years as the supply chain environment is healing.

好吧，供應鏈中的整體產量較少。所以我認為我們可以利用現有的勞動力提高效率。然後，在過去幾年中導致周期時間延長的最大問題是對大流行的影響。其中很大一部分與供應鏈相關。在工作環境、在家工作、安全的工作環境、工作現場的檢查員減少——在工作現場、市政辦公室的許可審查員減少方面，也有相當大的一部分。我的意思是這真的是多種因素的結合，但可能是最大的變數——我不想宣布勝利，但隨著供應鏈環境的恢復，它可能比過去幾年要好。

That concludes the Q&A of today's call. I now turn the call over to Mr. Zeumer for closing remarks.

今天電話會議的問答環節到此結束。我現在將電話轉給 Zeumer 先生作結束語。

Great. Appreciate everybody's time today. We're certainly around for the remainder of the day if you've got any questions. Otherwise, we look forward to speaking with you on our next call.

偉大的。感謝大家今天的時間。如果您有任何問題，我們當然會在今天剩下的時間里為您服務。否則，我們期待在下次通話時與您交談。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。