普爾特房屋 (PHM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the PulteGroup, Inc. Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) James Zeumer, you may begin.

早上好。我的名字是克里斯，今天我將成為您的會議接線員。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 PulteGroup, Inc. 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）James Zeumer，您可以開始了。

Great. Thank you, Chris, and good morning. I appreciate everyone joining today to review our -- PulteGroup conference call to review our second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2022.

偉大的。謝謝你，克里斯，早上好。我感謝大家今天加入審查我們的 PulteGroup 電話會議，審查我們截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度業績。

Joining me to discuss PulteGroup's strong second quarter are Ryan Marshall, President and CEO; Bob O’Shaughnessy, Executive Vice President and CFO; Jim Ossowski, Senior Vice President, Finance.

與我一起討論 PulteGroup 第二季度強勁表現的還有總裁兼首席執行官 Ryan Marshall； Bob O'Shaughnessy，執行副總裁兼首席財務官； Jim Ossowski，財務高級副總裁。

A copy of this morning's earnings release and the presentation slides that accompany today's call have been posted to our corporate website at pultegroup.com. We'll also post an audio replay of this call later today.

今天上午的收益發布和今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片的副本已發佈到我們的公司網站 pultegroup.com。我們還將在今天晚些時候發布此通話的音頻重播。

I want to highlight that in addition to reviewing our reported Q2 results, we will also be reviewing adjusted results for the second quarter of last year. Adjusted results exclude the impact of a $46 million pretax insurance benefit as well as a tax benefit of $12 million, resulting from a change in valuation allowances associated with state net operating loss carryforwards.

我想強調的是，除了審查我們報告的第二季度業績外，我們還將審查去年第二季度的調整後業績。調整後的結果不包括 4600 萬美元的稅前保險利益以及 1200 萬美元的稅收利益的影響，這是由於與州淨經營虧損結轉相關的估值津貼的變化而產生的。

A reconciliation of our adjusted results to our reported financials are included in this morning's release and within today's webcast slides. We encourage you to review these tables to assist in your analysis of our business performance.

我們調整後的結果與我們報告的財務數據的對賬包含在今天上午的新聞稿和今天的網絡廣播幻燈片中。我們鼓勵您查看這些表格，以幫助您分析我們的業務績效。

As always, I want to alert everyone that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements about the company's expected future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made today. The most significant risk factors that could affect future results are summarized as part of today's earnings release and within the accompanying presentation slides. These risk factors and other key information are detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual and quarterly reports.

與往常一樣，我想提醒大家，今天的演示文稿包含有關公司預期未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與我們今天發表的評論所建議的結果大不相同。可能影響未來業績的最重要風險因素在今天的收益發布和隨附的演示幻燈片中進行了總結。這些風險因素和其他關鍵信息在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中有詳細說明，包括我們的年度和季度報告。

Thank you. And now let me turn the call over to Ryan. Ryan?

謝謝你。現在讓我把電話轉給瑞恩。瑞恩？

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. As you read in this morning's press release, PulteGroup delivered another quarter of exceptional and in many cases, record-setting financial results. Led by price appreciation and a 430 basis point expansion in gross margin, our second quarter earnings of $2.73 per share increased by 44% and 59%, respectively, over last year's reported and adjusted earnings per share.

謝謝，吉姆，早上好。正如您在今天上午的新聞稿中所讀到的，PulteGroup 又交付了四分之一的非凡財務業績，在許多情況下，財務業績創下紀錄。在價格上漲和毛利率擴大 430 個基點的帶動下，我們第二季度每股收益為 2.73 美元，分別比去年報告的和調整後的每股收益增長了 44% 和 59%。

Our strong earnings performance helped to further reduce our debt-to-capital ratio to below 21%, while raising our return on equity for the trailing 12 months to north of 30%.

我們強勁的盈利表現有助於進一步將我們的債務資本比率降至 21% 以下，同時將我們過去 12 個月的股本回報率提高到 30% 以上。

We have talked in the past about wanting to deliver high returns over the housing cycle, and building the financial strength to safely navigate changing market conditions. I'm proud to say that we are accomplishing both.

我們過去曾討論過希望在房地產週期內實現高回報，並建立財務實力以安全應對不斷變化的市場條件。我很自豪地說我們正在實現兩者。

I would also note that consistent with our stated plans, we continue to return funds to shareholders, having repurchased an additional 3% of our shares during the quarter. As we approach the 10-year anniversary of reinstating our share repurchase program, I think it's worth noting that we have reduced our share count from roughly 387 million shares at the end of 2012 to the current 233 million shares, a decrease of almost 40%. Bob will detail the rest of the quarterly numbers, so let me spend some time reviewing the demand dynamics we experienced during the quarter.

我還要指出，根據我們既定的計劃，我們繼續向股東返還資金，並在本季度回購了額外 3% 的股份。在我們恢復股票回購計劃 10 週年之際，我認為值得注意的是，我們已將股票數量從 2012 年底的約 3.87 億股減少到目前的 2.33 億股，減少了近 40% . Bob 將詳細說明其餘的季度數據，所以讓我花一些時間回顧一下我們在本季度經歷的需求動態。

Between national housing data, and Wall Street analyst surveys, I suspect my comments may only serve to reaffirm your understanding of the changing market conditions. It is clear that the 200 basis point increase in interest rates over the past several months finally caught up with consumers. After 2 years of meaningful home price appreciation, the jump in mortgage rates created sticker shock and pushed affordability out of reach for some first-time buyers. At the same time, rising inflation, falling consumer confidence and the drumbeat of a possible recession caused some buyers -- some move-up buyers to hit the pause button.

在全國住房數據和華爾街分析師調查之間，我懷疑我的評論可能只會重申你對不斷變化的市場狀況的理解。很明顯，過去幾個月加息 200 個基點終於趕上了消費者。在經歷了 2 年有意義的房價上漲之後，抵押貸款利率的飆升造成了巨大的衝擊，並使一些首次購房者無法負擔得起。與此同時，通脹上升、消費者信心下降以及可能出現衰退的鼓聲導致一些買家——一些上進的買家按下了暫停按鈕。

As for our active adult consumers, the drop in the stock market, combined with the overall uncertainty has created some to slow their home search process as they wait for conditions to settle down. While demand has slowed, it is by no means stopped as we continue to work with buyers to sell homes. At the right price where consumers see value, they remain engaged in the home buying process.

至於我們活躍的成年消費者，股市下跌，再加上整體的不確定性，導致他們在等待條件穩定的過程中放慢了他們的家庭搜索過程。儘管需求放緩，但我們繼續與買家合作出售房屋，這絕不會停止。在消費者看到價值的合適價格下，他們仍然參與購房過程。

Consumers who are in the market right now are obviously accepting of and making decisions based on current mortgage rates. What we are experiencing with these customers is that given the volatility in mortgage rates, a higher percentage of these buyers are interested in spec homes that can close in the coming 30 to 60 or even 90 days rather than building to order. Given the shorter time to close, buyers are using their own funds or available incentives to lock in a mortgage rate or by the rate down to an acceptable level. In other words, during this period of rate volatility, some buyers are willing to trade the opportunity to personalize the home for greater financial certainty.

現在市場上的消費者顯然正在接受並根據當前的抵押貸款利率做出決定。我們對這些客戶的體驗是，鑑於抵押貸款利率的波動，這些買家中有更高比例的買家對可以在未來 30 到 60 甚至 90 天內關閉的規格房屋感興趣，而不是按訂單建造。鑑於關閉時間較短，買家正在使用自己的資金或可用的激勵措施來鎖定抵押貸款利率或將利率降至可接受的水平。換句話說，在這個利率波動的時期，一些買家願意放棄個性化房屋的機會，以獲得更大的財務確定性。

Reinforcing this point, I can tell you that the majority of incentives in the second quarter took the form of longer-term rate locks or rate buydowns. Many of today's homebuyers can still afford the price of a new home, but some need a little help on the rate or want the mortgage rate certainty for a home that will close later in the year.

為了強化這一點，我可以告訴你，第二季度的大部分激勵措施都採取了長期利率鎖定或利率減持的形式。今天的許多購房者仍然可以負擔得起新房的價格，但有些人在利率方面需要一點幫助，或者希望在今年晚些時候關閉的房屋的抵押貸款利率確定性。

After 18 months of exceptional demand, we entered the second quarter with only 64 finished specs. And while we have successfully increased spec production to our historic range of 25% to 30% of units, we had a limited supply of quick move-in homes available.

經過 18 個月的超常需求，我們進入第二季度時只有 64 個成品規格。雖然我們已成功地將規格產量提高到我們歷史上 25% 至 30% 的單位範圍，但我們的快速入住房屋供應有限。

We have taken actions to improve our inventory position and now have specs that have advanced in the build process and will be available to sell and close in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

我們已採取措施改善我們的庫存狀況，現在有在構建過程中取得進展的規格，並將在今年第三季度和第四季度出售和關閉。

During this period of interest rate volatility, our strategy is to start specs consistent with buyer demand. As market conditions evolve, we are prepared to continue starting specs, reemphasize build-to-order homes, or slow starts entirely as demand conditions warrant.

在這個利率波動的時期，我們的策略是啟動符合買家需求的規格。隨著市場條件的發展，我們準備繼續啟動規格，重新強調按訂單建造的房屋，或者在需求條件允許的情況下完全放慢啟動速度。

The Fed has been clear in articulating their intention to fight inflation through higher rates and we recognize the housing market has been and will continue to be impacted by these actions. While consumers are being understandably cautious, people still desire homeownership, aging millennials still need homes, and there remains a long-term deficit in U.S. housing stock after years of underbuilding.

美聯儲明確表達了他們通過提高利率來對抗通脹的意圖，我們認識到房地產市場已經並將繼續受到這些行動的影響。雖然消費者的謹慎是可以理解的，但人們仍然渴望擁有住房，老齡化的千禧一代仍然需要住房，而且美國住房存量在經過多年的建設不足後仍然存在長期短缺。

Let me turn the call over to Bob for a review of our second quarter results. Bob?

讓我把電話轉給鮑勃，以審查我們第二季度的業績。鮑勃？

Thanks, Ryan, and good morning. Following on Ryan's comments, our second quarter financial results demonstrate both the continuation of positive trends as well as some of the newer challenges which are impacting the market.

謝謝，瑞安，早上好。繼瑞安的評論之後，我們的第二季度財務業績顯示了積極趨勢的延續以及影響市場的一些新挑戰。

In the second quarter, PulteGroup's home sale revenues totaled $3.8 billion, an increase of 18% over the prior year. Higher homebuilding revenues in the second quarter were driven by a 19% or $83,000 increase in average sales price to $531,000. Given our construction cycle times, the increase in average selling prices primarily reflects strong demand and pricing conditions across all buyer groups in the back half of last year.

第二季度，PulteGroup 的房屋銷售收入總計 38 億美元，比上年增長 18%。第二季度住宅建築收入增加是由於平均銷售價格上漲 19% 或 83,000 美元至 531,000 美元。鑑於我們的建設週期，平均售價的上漲主要反映了去年下半年所有買家群體的強勁需求和定價狀況。

In the quarter, we closed 7,177 homes, which is down less than 1% from last year and a few units below our guide. While the overall production environment remains generally challenging, the shortfall in deliveries is primarily attributable to a specific supplier issue that impacted our Florida markets.

在本季度，我們關閉了 7,177 套房屋，比去年下降了不到 1%，並且比我們的指導低了幾個單位。雖然整體生產環境總體上仍然充滿挑戰，但交付短缺主要歸因於影響我們佛羅里達市場的特定供應商問題。

More broadly, I think it's fair to say that the supply chain remains challenging. While we are seeing areas of improvement, I would use the word fragile to describe overall conditions. Between limited inventory in the system and bottlenecks in distribution, any disruption in production or shipping can set back construction by a couple of days or weeks. In fact, during the second quarter, our overall cycle times extended by another 2 weeks.

更廣泛地說，我認為可以公平地說供應鏈仍然充滿挑戰。雖然我們看到了改進的領域，但我會使用脆弱這個詞來描述整體狀況。在系統庫存有限和分銷瓶頸之間，生產或運輸的任何中斷都可能使建設推遲幾天或幾週。事實上，在第二季度，我們的整體週期時間又延長了 2 週。

That being said, we are feeling a little more optimistic about supply chain conditions getting better through the back half of the year, allowing us to begin flowing back work days next year.

話雖如此，我們對下半年供應鏈狀況的改善感到更加樂觀，這使我們能夠在明年開始倒流工作日。

The mix of deliveries in the second quarter continued to align with our started targets with 35% from first-time buyers, 39% from move-up buyers and 26% from active adult buyers. In the second quarter last year, the mix was 30% first-time, 43% move-up and 27% active adult.

第二季度的交付組合繼續與我們的初始目標保持一致，35% 來自首次購房者，39% 來自升級買家，26% 來自活躍的成年買家。去年第二季度，該比例為 30% 的首次，43% 的升級和 27% 的活躍成人。

We reported 6,418 net new orders in the second quarter, which is a decrease of 23% from the second quarter of last year. The decrease in orders reflects both slower sales pace and higher cancellations resulting from the significant increase in mortgage rates over the past several months. The slowdown in sign-ups impacted all buyer groups, although our first-time buyer spared the best with orders up 1% to 2,454 homes. Move-up orders were lower by 37% to 2,172 homes and active adult orders decreased 27% to 1,792 homes.

我們報告第二季度淨新訂單為 6,418 個，比去年第二季度下降 23%。訂單減少反映了過去幾個月抵押貸款利率大幅上漲導致的銷售速度放緩和取消率增加。註冊量的放緩影響了所有買家群體，儘管我們的首次購房者倖免於難，訂單增加了 1%，達到 2,454 套。搬家訂單減少 37% 至 2,172 套，活躍的成人訂單減少 27% 至 1,792 套。

On a relative basis, the stronger orders among first-time buyers reflects current buyer preference for spec homes that can close sooner with less interest rate risk. By design, our spec production has been heavily weighted toward our first-time communities.

相對而言，首次購房者的強勁訂單反映了當前買家對可以更快關閉且利率風險較小的規格房屋的偏好。根據設計，我們的規格生產已高度重視我們的首次社區。

Our reported orders for the quarter also reflects an increase in cancellations as some consumers were impacted by the change in consumer confidence and today's higher rates. On a unit basis, we had 1,152 contracts canceled in the second quarter, up from 665 cancellations last year. This pushed up our cancellation rate for the period to 15% compared with 7% last year. We always want our homebuyers to complete the transaction and enjoy their new Pulte Home, but when cancellations do occur, we have been able to resell the home.

我們報告的本季度訂單也反映了取消訂單的增加，因為一些消費者受到消費者信心變化和今天更高費率的影響。按單位計算，我們在第二季度取消了 1,152 份合同，高於去年的 665 份。這將我們在此期間的取消率從去年的 7% 推高至 15%。我們一直希望我們的購房者完成交易並享受他們的新 Pulte Home，但是當確實發生取消時，我們已經能夠轉售房屋。

In the second quarter, we operated from an average of 791 communities, which is a decrease of 2% from an average of 808 communities last year. After several quarters operating at a year-over-year deficit on communities, Q2 should mark an inflection point as we begin showing growth in our year-over-year community counts. More specifically, in the third and fourth quarters, we expect to operate from an average of 800 and 830 communities, respectively. Both numbers would be up over the comparable prior year period as we begin realizing the impact of increased land investment over the last several years.

第二季度，我們平均從 791 個社區運營，比去年平均 808 個社區減少了 2%。經過幾個季度的社區同比赤字後，第二季度應該標誌著一個拐點，因為我們開始顯示我們的社區數量同比增長。更具體地說，在第三季度和第四季度，我們預計將分別從平均 800 個和 830 個社區運營。隨著我們開始意識到過去幾年土地投資增加的影響，這兩個數字都將比去年同期有所上升。

We ended the quarter with a backlog of 19,176 homes, which is down 4% from last year. While units are down slightly, strong price appreciation over the past year has raised our backlog value by 18% to a record $11.6 billion. At quarter end, we had 23,349 homes under construction, which is an increase of 35% over last year. Consistent with Ryan's earlier comments about buyers seeking to minimize time to close, we have increased spec starts and ended the quarter with 6,789 spec units under production.

我們在本季度結束時積壓了 19,176 套房屋，比去年下降了 4%。雖然單位略有下降，但過去一年的強勁價格升值使我們的積壓價值增加了 18%，達到創紀錄的 116 億美元。在季度末，我們有 23,349 套房屋在建，比去年增長 35%。與 Ryan 早些時候關於買家尋求最大限度地縮短關閉時間的評論一致，我們增加了規格開始數量，並在本季度結束時生產了 6,789 個規格單位。

While we have been successful in increasing the overall number of homes under construction, longer cycle times mean that 70% of these units are at the start of framing stage. As such, we expect deliveries in the third quarter to be in the range of 7,000 to 7,400 homes. While we have the homes in production, given changing market conditions and ongoing supply chain issues, we now expect full year deliveries to be in the range of 30,000 to 31,000 homes.

雖然我們成功地增加了在建房屋的總數，但更長的周期時間意味著這些單元中有 70% 處於框架階段的開始階段。因此，我們預計第三季度的交付量將在 7,000 至 7,400 戶之間。雖然我們的房屋正在生產中，但鑑於不斷變化的市場條件和持續的供應鏈問題，我們現在預計全年交付量將在 30,000 至 31,000 套之間。

Based on the anticipated mix of closings, we expect the average closing price of homes in the third quarter and for the full year to be in the range of $540,000 to $550,000.

根據預期的收盤組合，我們預計第三季度和全年的房屋平均收盤價將在 540,000 美元至 550,000 美元之間。

Supported by the strong price appreciation, we have realized over the past few quarters, PulteGroup generated substantial gains in our homebuilding gross margin, which increased 430 basis points over last year to 30.9%. In addition to higher prices, our Q2 gross margin reflects the flow-through of lower cost lumber purchased in the back half of last year.

在強勁的價格升值的支持下，我們在過去幾個季度意識到，PulteGroup 的住宅建築毛利率大幅增長，比去年增加 430 個基點至 30.9%。除了更高的價格，我們第二季度的毛利率還反映了去年下半年購買的低成本木材的流入。

As we discussed on our Q1 earnings call, we've experienced meaningful cost inflation for labor and materials in the current year, led by a significant upswing in lumber cost at the start of this year. Although lumber has decreased again, which will impact our 2023 closings, we've continued to experience incremental house cost inflation as the year has progressed. Based on our most recent internal estimates, we now expect cash costs for the year to be up 10% to 12% over last year.

正如我們在第一季度財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，在今年年初木材成本大幅上漲的帶動下，我們在本年度經歷了勞動力和材料成本的大幅上漲。儘管木材再次減少，這將影響我們 2023 年的關閉，但隨著時間的推移，我們繼續經歷房屋成本上漲。根據我們最近的內部估計，我們現在預計今年的現金成本將比去年增加 10% 至 12%。

Despite the ongoing inflation in materials and labor, including the meaningfully higher lumber costs, we are raising our margin guide for the third quarter and now expect to realize gross margins of approximately 30%. At the present time, we are maintaining our prior guide for fourth quarter gross margins to be in the range of 29.5% to 30%.

儘管材料和勞動力持續上漲，包括木材成本顯著上升，但我們正在提高第三季度的利潤率指導，現在預計毛利率將達到約 30%。目前，我們將第四季度毛利率維持在 29.5% 至 30% 的範圍內。

In the second quarter, SG&A expense totaled $351 million or 9.2% of home sale revenues. In the prior year period, our reported SG&A expense of $272 million or 8.4% of home sale revenues, included a $46 million pretax insurance benefit recorded in that period. Excluding that benefit, our adjusted SG&A expense in the second quarter last year was $319 million or 9.8% of home sale revenues.

第二季度，SG&A 費用總計 3.51 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.2%。在上一年期間，我們報告的 SG&A 費用為 2.72 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 8.4%，其中包括該期間記錄的 4600 萬美元的稅前保險福利。不計該收益，我們去年第二季度調整後的 SG&A 費用為 3.19 億美元，佔房屋銷售收入的 9.8%。

Based on the number of homes we expect to close in the third and fourth quarters, we are targeting SG&A expense in the third quarter to be in the range of 9.1% to 9.3% of homebuilding revenues. At the midpoint, this would be a roughly 40 basis point improvement over last year. For the full year, we still anticipate SG&A expense to be 9.2% to 9.5% of home sale revenues.

根據我們預計在第三和第四季度關閉的房屋數量，我們的目標是第三季度的 SG&A 費用佔房屋建築收入的 9.1% 至 9.3%。在中點，這將比去年提高大約 40 個基點。全年，我們仍預計 SG&A 費用將佔房屋銷售收入的 9.2% 至 9.5%。

Our financial services operations reported pretax income of $40 million in the second quarter, which is down from $51 million in the same period last year. The decrease in pretax income reflects the extremely competitive market conditions that continue to pressure profitability and capture rate of the business. In the quarter, our capture rate was 78% down from 86% last year as we are unwilling to chase market pricing down to unprofitable levels.

我們的金融服務業務報告第二季度稅前收入為 4000 萬美元，低於去年同期的 5100 萬美元。稅前收入的減少反映了競爭激烈的市場條件繼續對業務的盈利能力和捕獲率造成壓力。在本季度，我們的捕獲率從去年的 86% 下降了 78%，因為我們不願意將市場定價降低到無利可圖的水平。

Our tax expense in the second quarter was $212 million, representing an effective tax rate of 24.5%. In the second quarter of last year, our reported tax expense of $136 million for an effective tax rate of 21.3%, included a tax benefit of $12 million and the benefit of Federal Energy Efficient Home Credits, which expired as of December 31 last year.

我們第二季度的稅費為 2.12 億美元，有效稅率為 24.5%。去年第二季度，我們報告的稅收支出為 1.36 億美元，有效稅率為 21.3%，其中包括 1200 萬美元的稅收優惠和截至去年 12 月 31 日到期的聯邦節能住房信貸的優惠。

Looking at the bottom line, PulteGroup's reported net income for the second quarter was $652 million or $2.73 per share. In the prior year, our reported net income was $503 million or $1.90 per share with adjusted net income for the period of $456 million or $1.72 per share.

從底線來看，PulteGroup 報告的第二季度淨收入為 6.52 億美元或每股 2.73 美元。在上一年，我們報告的淨收入為 5.03 億美元或每股 1.90 美元，調整後的淨收入為 4.56 億美元或每股 1.72 美元。

In the second quarter, the company continued its active share repurchase program, buying back 7.1 million shares for $294 million or an average price of $41.44 per share. Through the first 6 months of the year, we have repurchased 17.4 million shares or 7% of our shares outstanding for $794 million.

第二季度，公司繼續積極的股票回購計劃，以 2.94 億美元或平均每股 41.44 美元的價格回購了 710 萬股股票。今年前 6 個月，我們以 7.94 億美元回購了 1,740 萬股或 7% 的流通股。

Throughout the past 10 years, we have taken a fairly systematic approach to our share repurchases. We plan to maintain a routine presence in the market, but given ongoing stock market volatility, we will incorporate more of an opportunistic approach to share repurchases. Over the near term, we believe this strategy allows us to be more responsive to changing market conditions.

在過去的 10 年中，我們對股票回購採取了相當系統的方法。我們計劃在市場上保持常規存在，但鑑於股市持續波動，我們將更多地採用機會主義方法進行股票回購。在短期內，我們相信這一策略使我們能夠對不斷變化的市場條件做出更快的反應。

We ended the quarter with $732 million of cash and a debt-to-capital ratio of 20.8%. We continue to see value and the potential to achieve appropriate risk-adjusted returns in many of the land assets we put under control over the last couple of years. As such, we invested $470 million in outright land acquisition during the quarter, and invested another $655 million in the development of existing land assets, bringing our total land investment for the second quarter to $1.1 billion.

我們在本季度結束時擁有 7.32 億美元的現金和 20.8% 的債務資本比率。我們繼續看到過去幾年我們控制的許多土地資產的價值和實現適當風險調整後回報的潛力。因此，我們在本季度投資 4.7 億美元進行土地收購，另外投資 6.55 億美元用於開發現有土地資產，使我們第二季度的土地總投資達到 11 億美元。

We remain constructive on long-term housing demand, but we appreciate that market conditions are in flux. While we always maintain a disciplined approach to land investment, we are assessing the land positions we have under control to make sure that the underwriting assumptions supporting our investment reflect current market conditions and that the projected returns still achieve our required return thresholds. At this time, we still expect to invest between $4.5 billion and $5 billion in land acquisition and development for the year with more than half of this spend allocated to developing existing land assets.

我們對長期住房需求保持建設性態度，但我們理解市場狀況不斷變化。雖然我們始終對土地投資保持嚴謹的態度，但我們正在評估我們控制的土地頭寸，以確保支持我們投資的承銷假設反映當前的市場狀況，並且預計回報仍能達到我們要求的回報門檻。目前，我們仍預計今年將在土地收購和開發上投資 45 億至 50 億美元，其中一半以上用於開發現有土地資產。

Given today's changing market dynamics, the optionality of our land book becomes an even more important tool for potentially enhancing returns and controlling risks. We ended the second quarter with 243,000 lots under control, of which 54% were controlled through auctions.

鑑於當今不斷變化的市場動態，我們土地簿的選擇性成為潛在提高回報和控制風險的更重要工具。我們在第二季度結束時控制了 243,000 手，其中 54% 是通過拍賣控制的。

And as we highlighted in our last earnings call, we are assessing ways to meaningfully increase our option lot position to a target range of 65% to 70% of our lots under control.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議中強調的那樣，我們正在評估如何將我們的期權頭寸有意義地增加到我們控制的手數的 65% 至 70% 的目標範圍。

Now let me turn the call back to Ryan.

現在讓我把電話轉回瑞安。

The more challenging demand conditions that developed in the quarter have continued through the month of July as the significant increase in mortgage rates has impacted consumers throughout the country.

由於抵押貸款利率的大幅上漲影響了全國各地的消費者，本季度出現的更具挑戰性的需求狀況一直持續到 7 月份。

While all consumers are impacted by higher rates, we are seeing differences across our markets. Lower-priced markets in places like Florida, Texas and the Southeast, areas of ongoing high in-migration are holding up better. Higher-priced markets are those which have realized outsized price appreciation in recent years have incurred a more meaningful slowdown in demand. In tech hubs like Austin or in our Western markets in California and Washington, where prices routinely approach or exceed $1 million, sales bases have slowed as buyers struggle with a combination of elevated prices and increased mortgage rates.

雖然所有消費者都受到更高利率的影響，但我們看到我們市場之間存在差異。佛羅里達州、得克薩斯州和東南部等地的低價市場以及持續高移民的地區表現較好。價格較高的市場是那些近年來實現價格大幅升值並導致需求放緩的市場。在像奧斯汀這樣的科技中心或我們在加利福尼亞和華盛頓的西部市場，價格通常接近或超過 100 萬美元，由於買家在價格上漲和抵押貸款利率上升的雙重壓力下苦苦掙扎，銷售基礎已經放緩。

Housing is clearly in the sights of the Federal Reserve and its fight against inflation. As the Fed desires depending upon the community, home price appreciation has slowed, stopped or through the use of incentives is taking a couple of steps back. Through much of the second quarter, incentives were mostly tied to the mortgage, but this is now expanding to include discounts on options and lot premiums. In the end, these are variations on a path toward lower price, which is what the Fed needs to see as it assesses when they have moved rates high enough.

住房顯然是美聯儲及其對抗通脹的目標。正如美聯儲所希望的那樣，取決於社區，房價升值已經放緩、停止或通過使用激勵措施後退了幾步。在第二季度的大部分時間裡，激勵措施主要與抵押貸款掛鉤，但現在正在擴大，包括期權折扣和地塊溢價。歸根結底，這些都是在走向更低價格的道路上的變化，這是美聯儲在評估何時將利率提高到足夠高時需要看到的。

While we are still early in this process, we are starting to see some impact on the cost side. Commodities like lumber, copper and aluminum have rolled over. The fall in lumber prices alone could save us upwards of $10,000 per home beginning in 2023. And while land prices are notoriously slow to adjust, deals are getting canceled and/or renegotiated. We walked away from a handful of deals in the second quarter. And as mentioned earlier, we are reassessing all of the land transactions we currently have under control given ongoing changes in housing demand dynamics.

雖然我們仍處於此過程的早期階段，但我們開始看到對成本方面的一些影響。木材、銅和鋁等商品已經翻身。從 2023 年開始，僅木材價格的下跌就可以為我們每戶節省 10,000 美元以上的費用。雖然土地價格的調整非常緩慢，但交易正在被取消和/或重新談判。我們在第二季度放棄了一些交易。如前所述，鑑於住房需求動態的持續變化，我們正在重新評估我們目前控制的所有土地交易。

We remain constructive on the long-term outlook for housing demand. But right now, higher mortgage rates are having an impact. We have to work harder to sell homes. We have to be more nimble in the market to make sure we have the right product available. We have to be responsive to changes in the competitive landscape. This is how homebuilding typically operates, and I am extremely confident in PulteGroup's ability to compete.

我們對住房需求的長期前景保持建設性。但現在，更高的抵押貸款利率正在產生影響。我們必須更加努力地賣房。我們必須在市場上更加靈活，以確保我們有合適的產品可用。我們必須對競爭格局的變化做出反應。這就是住宅建設的典型運作方式，我對 PulteGroup 的競爭能力非常有信心。

I would highlight that we operate from a position of strength with an outstanding balance sheet, a strong land pipeline, unmatched product quality and most importantly, experienced and talented people throughout our organization. So let me end by thanking our entire team for their hard work and commitment.

我要強調的是，我們的運營實力雄厚，擁有出色的資產負債表、強大的土地儲備、無與倫比的產品質量，最重要的是，整個組織擁有經驗豐富且才華橫溢的人才。最後，讓我感謝我們整個團隊的辛勤工作和承諾。

Great. Thanks, Ryan. We are now prepared to open the call for questions so we can get to as many questions as possible during the remaining time of this call. We ask that you please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝，瑞恩。我們現在準備打開問題電話，以便在電話的剩餘時間內盡可能多地回答問題。我們要求您將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個跟進。謝謝你。

And Chris, if you would open the line, we'll get started with Q&A.

克里斯，如果你願意打開電話，我們將開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

First one just on the buyer segments. Clearly, a wide difference there between your first-time buyers, move-up and active adult. Just curious if you could elaborate a little bit on what's going on there? Clearly, with first-time buyers sort of by definition, potentially more financially constrained into this environment. And as you mentioned, more impacted by the move in rates and yet you have this significant difference between the buyer segments. So could you sort of just elaborate a little on what you think is going on there?

第一個僅針對買方細分市場。顯然，您的首次購房者、升職者和活躍的成年人之間存在很大差異。只是好奇你能不能詳細說明一下那裡發生了什麼？顯然，根據定義，對於首次購房者來說，在這種環境下可能會受到更多的財務限制。正如您所提到的，受費率變動的影響更大，但您在買方細分市場之間存在顯著差異。所以你能稍微詳細說明一下你認為那裡發生的事情嗎？

Yes, Matt, it's Ryan. The biggest thing I'd highlight here is the availability of quick move-in homes in the first-time buyer segment. What we've seen with all buyers is that there's a real preference toward having a home that can deliver in the near term. I think the uncertainty around supply chain delays and some of those things have certainly proved to be more predictable and better. But the biggest thing is just the certainty of being able to lock in the interest rate without a whole bunch of incremental rate lock points and then they've been able to use incentives to buy down the current rate to something that they can make work from an overall affordability standpoint.

是的，馬特，是瑞恩。我在這裡要強調的最重要的事情是首次購房者可以快速入住。我們在所有買家中看到的是，人們真正傾向於擁有可以在短期內交付的房屋。我認為圍繞供應鏈延遲的不確定性以及其中一些事情肯定被證明是更可預測和更好的。但最重要的是確定能夠在沒有一大堆增量利率鎖定點的情況下鎖定利率，然後他們能夠利用激勵措施將當前利率買低到他們可以從中獲利的東西整體負擔能力的觀點。

So I think that's the biggest difference. As we highlighted in some of our prepared remarks, each of the buyer segments or the consumer groups that we target have been impacted in the current environment for different reasons, but it's really the availability of quick move-ins that allowed the first-time segment to outperform.

所以我認為這是最大的不同。正如我們在一些準備好的評論中強調的那樣，我們針對的每個買家群體或消費者群體都因不同的原因在當前環境中受到影響，但實際上是快速入住的可用性允許首次細分市場跑贏大盤。

Got it. And then second one on the incentives. I think I heard you say at the end what was initially more related to -- or the initial incentives being more related to rate buydowns and such, now sort of progressing into option and lot premiums coming down. I guess, number one, apologies if I didn't hear you, but if you could actually put some numbers or quantify that statement? And number two, just as these incentives has progressed, are you actually starting to see any elasticity there? Or are you actually starting to see some buyers sort of react positively to those changes in incentives?

知道了。然後是第二個關於激勵措施。我想我最後聽到你說最初與什麼更相關 - 或者最初的激勵措施與利率減持等更相關，現在有點進展為期權和地塊溢價下降。我想，第一，如果我沒有聽到你的話，我很抱歉，但如果你真的可以輸入一些數字或量化那個陳述？第二，隨著這些激勵措施的進展，你真的開始看到那裡的彈性了嗎？或者你是否真的開始看到一些買家對激勵措施的這些變化做出了積極的反應？

Yes, Matt. So it's a good question. Let me maybe start first with the incentive load that we saw with sign-ups. And this is actually new contracts that we wrote in the second quarter. They were in the range of about 2%, which is still below probably what we would consider to be a normal range of 2% to 3% if you went back to pre-COVID time frames. And that includes all incentives. So incentives on options, mortgage rate type incentives, financing incentives, et cetera.

是的，馬特。所以這是一個很好的問題。讓我先從我們在註冊時看到的激勵負載開始。這實際上是我們在第二季度寫的新合同。它們在大約 2% 的範圍內，如果你回到 COVID 之前的時間框架，這可能仍然低於我們認為的 2% 到 3% 的正常範圍。這包括所有激勵措施。因此，期權激勵、抵押貸款利率類型激勵、融資激勵等。

It gets a little harder to quantify the change in lot premiums because we're always repricing and always releasing new lot premium pricing as we release new phases. So that becomes a little bit more subjective. But what we highlighted is accurate. We are starting to see not only in our own business, but in the competitive set, some additional incentives that are starting to go beyond just financing-related incentives.

量化地段溢價的變化變得有點困難，因為我們總是在發布新階段時重新定價並總是發布新的地段溢價定價。所以這變得有點主觀。但我們強調的是準確的。我們開始不僅在我們自己的業務中，而且在競爭環境中，開始看到一些額外的激勵措施開始超越與融資相關的激勵措施。

Our next question is from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的杜魯門帕特森。

First, on your build-to-rent strategy. I believe there have been about 1,400 lots approved through the strategic relationship, and I think first closings in '23, you all put out an initial kind of 5-year plan. I'm just trying to understand whether those targets are still good and really whether you've seen any shift in appetite from any of the build-to-rent operators or your partner in particular?

首先，關於您的建造租賃策略。我相信通過戰略關係已經批准了大約 1,400 個地塊，我認為 23 年的第一次交割，你們都提出了一個初步的 5 年計劃。我只是想了解這些目標是否仍然很好，以及您是否真的看到任何建造租賃運營商或您的合作夥伴的興趣發生了任何變化？

Truman, we're right on target with our kind of 5-year run of 7,500 units in terms of kind of moving through that in a very programmatic way. So we feel very good about how the partnership's working and the progress that we're making. We've not changed any targets to this point. And candidly, based on our performance and discussions with our partner, if anything, I would tell you, maybe the appetite could potentially slightly increase as we go into maybe some choppier times.

杜魯門，我們以非常程序化的方式實現了 5 年 7,500 個單位的運行目標，這是正確的。因此，我們對合作夥伴關係的運作方式以及我們正在取得的進展感到非常滿意。到目前為止，我們還沒有更改任何目標。坦率地說，根據我們的表現和與合作夥伴的討論，如果有的話，我會告訴你，隨著我們進入一些動蕩的時期，胃口可能會略有增加。

So no updates from us yet. We like the way the partnership is working, and we plan to continue kind of moving down the path.

所以我們還沒有更新。我們喜歡這種夥伴關係的運作方式，我們計劃繼續沿著這條道路前進。

Okay. And then you all mentioned your -- to an extent, the updated land strategy, but have you all started to rework any of the option deals now the demand has softened? And are you making any changes to that strategy to get to the targeted 65% to 70% option land? I'm thinking, are you attempting to walk down the number of owned lots, extend the takedown time line of some of the option deals, et cetera?

好的。然後你們都提到了你們的——在某種程度上，更新了土地戰略，但是現在需求已經減弱，你們是否都開始重新制定任何期權交易？您是否對該策略進行了任何更改以達到目標 65% 至 70% 的選擇權土地？我在想，你是否試圖減少擁有地塊的數量，延長一些期權交易的取消時間線，等等？

Yes. Truman, it's a fair question. In terms of strategically, no, we are not changing where we have been for what is essentially a decade now. We still desire optionality. We still start with individual sellers. What we've offered is that in order to get from where we are today, 54% in this most recent print to 65% and 70%, we're likely to be looking at more institutional type relationships.

是的。杜魯門，這是一個公平的問題。就戰略而言，不，我們並沒有改變我們十年來的現狀。我們仍然希望有選擇性。我們仍然從個人賣家開始。我們提供的是，為了從我們今天的位置，從最近打印的 54% 到 65% 和 70%，我們可能會關注更多的機構類型的關係。

That process is underway. We'll give you updates as we make those transactions occur there. We still think that we can move up from 55% into that 65% to 70% range, take a little bit of time. But in terms of how we're approaching it, not at all.

這個過程正在進行中。當我們在那裡進行這些交易時，我們會為您提供更新。我們仍然認為我們可以從 55% 上升到 65% 到 70% 的範圍，需要一點時間。但就我們如何接近它而言，根本不是。

In terms of your question, as it relates to our current attitude and negotiating stance, we've said it in the prepared remarks, we've always been, I believe, pretty disciplined in how we evaluate our land position and negotiate transactions. That hasn't changed and maybe it's even been heightened. We are taking a close look at everything we are closing on.

關於你的問題，因為它與我們目前的態度和談判立場有關，我們在準備好的評論中已經說過，我相信我們在評估我們的土地位置和談判交易方面一直非常自律。這並沒有改變，甚至可能被加強了。我們正在仔細研究我們正在關閉的一切。

So as an example, if we put a contract, a parcel under control 18 months ago that was waiting final entitlements, before we take that down, we are revisiting the underwriting that we had when we approved the transaction to make sure that the absorptions and the pricing and how our cost structure because vertical construction costs are up, horizontal development costs are up. So we're looking at it holistically, does this transaction make sense?

舉個例子，如果我們在 18 個月前簽訂了一份合同，一個正在等待最終權利的包裹，在我們取消它之前，我們正在重新審視我們在批准交易時的承銷，以確保吸收和定價以及我們的成本結構如何，因為垂直建設成本上升，水平開發成本上升。所以我們從整體上看，這筆交易有意義嗎？

I will tell you, we have walked away from a couple of transactions where for a number of reasons, we just didn't think it made sense whether it was locational or economic. We are also trying to make sure that the timing of takedowns make sense. And so we have had discussions with sellers that said, "Hey, our original takedown structure was A, B and C, and we'd like it to be A, D and E now." I think the sellers -- I haven't seen a change in value propositions out there, but the ability to work with time is something that does and we have taken into account.

我會告訴你，我們已經放棄了幾筆交易，出於多種原因，我們只是認為無論是位置還是經濟都沒有意義。我們也在努力確保下架的時機是合理的。因此，我們與賣家進行了討論，他們說：“嘿，我們最初的移除結構是 A、B 和 C，我們現在希望它是 A、D 和 E。”我認為賣家——我還沒有看到價值主張的變化，但與時間合作的能力是確實如此，我們已經考慮到了這一點。

So long story short, hopefully, this is really just us continuing to be disciplined in the land buying process. And in a choppy market, yes, you're going to see time become more important to us and in some cases, dollars, so we'll proceed further.

長話短說，希望這真的只是我們在土地購買過程中繼續遵守紀律。在動蕩的市場中，是的，你會看到時間對我們變得更加重要，在某些情況下，美元變得更加重要，所以我們將繼續前進。

The next question is from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on some of the comments you made with respect to market conditions? And in particular, I wanted to ask about your assessment of the alternatives that your customers are evaluating. You mentioned that there's a preference for specs, they can move into quickly. You said that they're remaining engaged. We know there's not a lot of standing inventory out in the marketplace, either on the new or existing.

想知道您是否可以詳細說明您對市場狀況的一些評論？特別是，我想詢問您對客戶正在評估的替代方案的評估。您提到對規格有偏好，它們可以快速進入。你說他們還在訂婚。我們知道市場上沒有很多常備庫存，無論是新的還是現有的。

And we've also begun to hear that some of the other larger public builders have slowed their role a little bit on production. And so bottom line question is, are you seeing that your customers are finding alternatives out in the market? Or are you continuing to find that they are remaining on your interest lists and things of that nature? And have you seen anything specific in terms of your competition doing anything particularly disruptive with respect to their production? In other words, have they -- have you seen an increase in production activity? Or have you actually seen the opposite?

而且我們也開始聽說其他一些較大的公共建築商已經放慢了他們在生產中的作用。所以底線問題是，您是否看到您的客戶正在市場上尋找替代品？或者你是否繼續發現他們仍然在你的興趣列表和那種性質的事情上？你有沒有看到你的競爭對手有什麼特別的事情，對他們的生產造成了特別的破壞？換句話說，他們有沒有看到生產活動有所增加？或者你真的看到了相反的情況？

Yes, Stephen, there was a lot there. So let me see if I can unpack it one at a time.

是的，斯蒂芬，那裡有很多。所以讓我看看能不能一次拆開一個。

In terms of our competition, we've actually seen competition pull back slightly in terms of the amount of inventory production that they're putting into the market. And that's specifically for some of our competitors that I think are predominantly spec builders.

就我們的競爭而言，我們實際上已經看到競爭在他們投入市場的庫存量方面略有回落。這專門針對我們的一些競爭對手，我認為這些競爭對手主要是規範構建者。

We haven't seen anything that's been irrational or widespread, irrational disruptive type behavior when it comes to incentive or price drops or things of that nature. Of course, there's the anecdotal builder in a specific market, in a specific submarket that might have unique or particular challenge that they're working against. But we haven't seen anything that we would highlight at a national level.

當涉及到激勵或價格下降或類似性質的事情時，我們還沒有看到任何非理性或普遍的、非理性的破壞性行為。當然，在特定的市場，特定的子市場中，有一些軼事建設者可能面臨他們正在應對的獨特或特殊挑戰。但是我們還沒有看到任何我們會在國家層面強調的東西。

In terms of the choices and the opportunities that buyers have, I think it's still (technical difficulty) to find homes that are in the right place at the right price with the timing that matches up to what buyers want.

就買家擁有的選擇和機會而言，我認為仍然（技術難度）以合適的價格在合適的地點找到符合買家需求的房屋。

And more than anything, Stephen, what we've tried to kind of highlight, and Bob and I were just out in the market a couple of weeks ago, and we were in multiple sales offices, in multiple different cities over the course of 2 or 3 days and spec inventory is definitely preferred. And I think it's all about the financial certainty that a buyer can get by being able to lock in the rate without paying a whole bunch of extra discount points, which you have to pay for a longer-term rate lock. Or they're able to take the current market rate and put some incentive dollars against that and buy it down or do a 5-year ARM or a 7-year ARM or something of that nature.

最重要的是，斯蒂芬，我們試圖強調的東西，鮑勃和我幾週前剛剛在市場上，我們在多個銷售辦事處，在兩個不同的城市或 3 天和規格庫存絕對是首選。而且我認為這完全取決於買家能夠通過鎖定利率而無需支付一大堆額外折扣點而獲得的財務確定性，而您必須為長期利率鎖定支付費用。或者他們能夠採用當前的市場價格並投入一些激勵資金，然后買下它，或者做一個 5 年期的 ARM 或 7 年期的 ARM 或類似的東西。

So I think what we're seeing with buyers, if they can find the home that meets their needs and they're able to get certainty around the financing, we're seeing buyers move forward. As part of the reason that we highlighted in our prepared remarks that buyers are remaining engaged in the process.

所以我認為我們在買家身上看到的情況，如果他們能找到滿足他們需求的房子並且他們能夠確定融資，我們就會看到買家向前邁進。作為我們在準備好的評論中強調的部分原因，買家仍在參與該過程。

We've been very successful in getting our backlog across the finish line for the most part. As we've looked at the reasons for cancellations, they're varied like they always have been. There is not surprisingly been a disproportionate change in financing.

在大多數情況下，我們已經非常成功地讓我們的積壓工作通過了終點線。當我們查看取消的原因時，它們像往常一樣多種多樣。融資方面發生了不成比例的變化也就不足為奇了。

So we're still able to get buyers across the finish line and qualified in the cases where buyers are canceling, we've been successful in getting those homes resold pretty quickly.

因此，我們仍然能夠讓買家越過終點線並在買家取消的情況下獲得資格，我們已經成功地讓這些房屋很快轉售。

So it's a choppy market out there, Stephen. I think we're doing some really nice things. We continue to emphasize quality of the homes that we're building and customer service, buying land in the right locations. And I think over the long term, in a broad housing environment that we're very constructive on, we think over the next year, 2, 3 years, we've positioned ourselves to be very successful with our overall strategy.

所以這是一個波濤洶湧的市場，斯蒂芬。我認為我們正在做一些非常好的事情。我們繼續強調我們正在建造的房屋的質量和客戶服務，在正確的位置購買土地。而且我認為從長遠來看，在我們非常有建設性的廣泛住房環境中，我們認為在接下來的 2 年、3 年中，我們已經將自己定位為在我們的整體戰略上非常成功。

Great. That's really helpful. I mean particularly your comment about the certainty versus the qualifications. It sounds like for a lot of buyers, it's not math, it's mental and that's encouraging.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。我的意思是您對確定性與資格的評論。對於很多買家來說，這聽起來不是數學，而是心理，這令人鼓舞。

I wanted to follow up regarding your commentary about incentives still being lower than normal. I think you said 2% on new contracts versus normal as much as 3%. And that people are preferring these rate lock or these buy-downs. A couple of things. One, we had heard that rate buydowns have gotten even cheaper. That used to be typical 4:1 ratio and now we've heard ratios as low as like 2.5:1. So I was wondering if you can comment on that, whether that's been benefiting you?

我想跟進您關於激勵措施仍低於正常水平的評論。我想你說的新合同是 2%，而正常情況下是 3%。人們更喜歡這些利率鎖定或這些減持。有幾件事。第一，我們聽說降價利率變得更便宜了。這曾經是典型的 4:1 比率，現在我們聽說比率低至 2.5:1。所以我想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，這是否使您受益？

And then secondarily, we were -- it was interesting to see that your order price actually was quite strong again despite a pretty heavy mix of entry-level buyers. And so I'm curious if you could comment on that? Did you actually see order price increase in all 3 segments? Or exactly what was going on there that drove the very nice growth in order price this quarter?

其次，我們是 - 有趣的是，儘管入門級買家的組合相當多，但您的訂單價格實際上再次相當強勁。所以我很好奇你能否對此發表評論？您是否真的看到所有 3 個細分市場的訂單價格都上漲了？或者究竟是什麼推動了本季度訂單價格的良好增長？

Stephen, I'll take the first part of that, and I'll let Bob give you some details on the order pricing.

斯蒂芬，我先講第一部分，然後讓鮑勃給你一些關於訂單定價的細節。

In terms of kind of incentives that are out there, I think all are speaking for ourselves, but I think our competitive set as well. I think we've been -- we've worked to be smart in finding kind of where the market is and what will move the needle for buyers. You mentioned it just a second ago, I think as much as anything, this is mental versus price. And so we've been cautious not just to cut the bottom of the market out from underneath. What I think we've all worked so hard to achieve because that may not ultimately move the fear that's out there in the minds of a lot of buyers, specifically our move up and our active adult buyers.

就現有的激勵措施而言，我認為所有人都在為自己說話，但我認為我們的競爭環境也是如此。我認為我們一直 - 我們一直在努力尋找市場在哪里以及什麼會為買家帶來影響。你剛才提到它，我想和任何事情一樣，這是心理與價格的對比。因此，我們一直保持謹慎，不僅僅是從下方切入市場底部。我認為我們所有人都在努力實現這一目標，因為這可能最終無法消除許多買家心中的恐懼，特別是我們的升級和活躍的成年買家。

As far as rate buydowns, I'll let Bob maybe comment on the ratio. We do have currently advertised on our national website a 4.25% interest rate, which is on a 7-year ARM or a 7, 6 ARM, as I think they're now doing. But we think there are solutions out there for buyers that are ready to move forward. And we're not having to completely give away the farm in order to define some of those interest rates that I think are more like what we saw 90 days ago.

至於降息，我會讓鮑勃對這個比率發表評論。我們目前確實在我們的國家網站上宣傳了 4.25% 的利率，這是在 7 年 ARM 或 7、6 ARM 上，我認為他們現在正在這樣做。但我們認為對於準備好前進的買家來說，有一些解決方案。而且我們不必完全放棄農場來定義我認為更像我們 90 天前看到的一些利率。

Bob, do you want to touch on his question on the pricing?

Bob，你想談談他關於定價的問題嗎？

Yes. It's interesting. If you look at our ASP in the most recent print, we're up 19%. The highest kind of growth of ASP is in the first-time space, which was up 24%, move-up and active adult were up about 20%. And so the 19% growth for the company is mix adjusted, right?

是的。這真有趣。如果您查看我們最近打印的 ASP，我們上漲了 19%。 ASP 增幅最高的是首次空間，增長了 24%，上升和活躍成人增長了約 20%。所以公司 19% 的增長是經過混合調整的，對吧？

If you look at our backlog, what we've seen is, to answer your question, pricing up across all 3. So our backlog ASPs are higher for all 3 of our key demographics, first time, move-up and active adult.

如果您查看我們的積壓訂單，我們所看到的是，為了回答您的問題，所有 3 種產品的價格都上漲了。因此，對於我們的所有 3 個主要人口統計數據，我們的積壓產品 ASP 均較高，即首次、升級和活躍的成年人。

Bob, was that sequential? Is that a sequential comment or just your...

鮑勃，那是連續的嗎？這是一個連續的評論還是只是你的......

That is versus the first quarter of this year. And interestingly, the highest increase on a relative basis among those is the move up. Now mix matters and all that. But that move-up buyer space is probably the biggest contributor to that increase.

這與今年第一季度相比。有趣的是，其中相對增幅最大的是上漲。現在混合問題和所有這些。但這種向上移動的買家空間可能是這一增長的最大貢獻者。

Our next question is from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Still a lot to dig in on here. Ryan, Bob, I know typically you don't give things like monthly trends, but just in light of this being such a unique and quickly changing environment, wondering if you could quantify your order trends? One thing, give us a little more quantification on how July is tracking?

這裡還有很多值得挖掘的地方。 Ryan，Bob，我知道您通常不會提供每月趨勢之類的信息，但鑑於這是一個如此獨特且瞬息萬變的環境，想知道您是否可以量化您的訂單趨勢？一件事，讓我們對 7 月的跟踪情況進行更多量化？

Yes, Mike, I think we're going to stick with our previous kind of practice and not get into the monthly detail. I will tell you that we did see a decline as we move through the quarter. April was still relatively strong. May slowed and then June slowed again, specifically after the 75 basis point increase that we saw from the Fed last month. We saw a big change in June. And then that's really kind of continued through July.

是的，邁克，我認為我們將堅持我們以前的做法，而不是深入了解每月的細節。我會告訴你，隨著我們整個季度的發展，我們確實看到了下降。 4 月仍然相對強勁。 5 月放緩，然後 6 月再次放緩，特別是在我們上個月美聯儲上調 75 個基點之後。我們在六月看到了巨大的變化。然後這真的一直持續到七月。

We have seen an uptick in cans as we've moved kind of through the period as well. I think, again, all kind of related and tied to the kind of buyer's remorse and the fear of maybe potentially buying at the top of the market as we potentially go into a recessionary type environment. I think that's weighed heavily on buyers. So we're still -- I'll just -- I'll leave it at that, Mike.

我們也看到了罐頭的上漲，因為我們也經歷了這段時期。我再次認為，所有這些都與買方的悔恨以及對可能在市場頂部購買的恐懼有關，因為我們可能會進入衰退類型的環境。我認為這嚴重影響了買家。所以我們仍然——我只是——我會留在那裡，邁克。

Okay. Maybe just a quick kind of part 2 before I ask a second question. Just if July is still tracking similar, I don't know if it's similar or worse than in June, we have effectively retraced that entire last 75 basis points move up in rates. So just it doesn't seem like we've seen the order trends improve really across the group, but based on your comments specifically. So wondering if you can kind of reconcile that?

好的。在我問第二個問題之前，也許只是一個快速的第 2 部分。如果 7 月的走勢仍然相似，我不知道它是否與 6 月相似或更糟，我們已經有效地回溯了整個過去 75 個基點的利率上漲。因此，我們似乎並沒有看到整個集團的訂單趨勢真正改善，而是具體基於您的評論。所以想知道你能不能調和一下？

But my second question is around land and following up on some prior questions in your comments around managing strategy and you've always been disciplined. If we look on a forward basis based on where you're kind of tracking on orders, your lot position might end up at, call it, like 9 to 10 years if we were using orders as the denominator, which is obviously quite elevated. So how are you thinking about incremental acquisition dollars or as I think Truman may have asked paring back your owned land position more aggressively looking out?

但我的第二個問題是關於土地的，並在你關於管理戰略的評論中跟進一些先前的問題，你一直都很自律。如果我們根據您對訂單的跟踪位置向前看，您的手數可能最終會達到，稱之為，如果我們使用訂單作為分母，則為 9 到 10 年，這顯然是相當高的。那麼，您如何看待增量收購資金，或者我認為杜魯門可能會要求更積極地減少您擁有的土地頭寸？

Yes, Mike, I appreciate the question on land. Let me just -- I'll finish your question about kind of what we've seen from buyers. As rates have pulled back over the last, call it, 3 to 4 weeks, a little bit. So I think that's certainly been helpful. We have seen a slight uptick in our ability to sell and get new deals done as I think buyers have kind of come to terms with the current environment. But when you combine the higher rates along with, I think, the overhang of low consumer confidence, some -- it's pretty volatile cocktail that I think we're all dealing with in helping the consumer to make what is the single biggest purchase of their lives. So there's a lot wrapped up in there.

是的，邁克，我很欣賞陸地上的問題。讓我 - 我將完成你關於我們從買家那裡看到的問題的問題。由於利率在過去一段時間內有所回落，因此將其稱為 3 到 4 週，一點點。所以我認為這肯定是有幫助的。我們已經看到我們銷售和完成新交易的能力略有上升，因為我認為買家已經接受了當前的環境。但是，當您將較高的利率與消費者信心低下的影響結合起來時，我認為這是一種非常不穩定的雞尾酒，我認為我們都在處理幫助消費者進行最大單筆購買的事情生活。所以里面有很多東西。

We're going to continue to focus on a lot of the basics. We're going to continue to focus on making sure that our community execution is great, that we've got the right product, that we've got -- that were priced competitively. We are not going to find ourselves in a position where we're giving up market share because we're being too margin proud. We're very -- we're obviously very happy with the work that we've done on the margin side. But I do want the investment community and our investors to know that we're going to continue to be very market competitive.

我們將繼續關注許多基礎知識。我們將繼續專注於確保我們的社區執行良好，我們擁有正確的產品，我們擁有 - 價格具有競爭力。我們不會發現自己處於放棄市場份額的位置，因為我們對利潤感到驕傲。我們非常 - 我們顯然對我們在邊緣方面所做的工作感到非常滿意。但我確實希望投資界和我們的投資者知道，我們將繼續保持市場競爭力。

Moving to the land side. Mike, there's a couple of things here that I'd highlight. Number one, we continue to be very focused on through-cycle investment and delivering high return on invested capital. So the way that we have allocated capital, the amount of land that we've put under control, the way that we have structured our purchase transactions has all been toward maximizing return. I think we've done an unbelievable job there.

移動到陸地一側。邁克，這裡有幾件事我要強調一下。第一，我們繼續非常關注全週期投資並提供高投資資本回報。因此，我們分配資金的方式、我們控制的土地數量、我們構建購買交易的方式都是為了最大化回報。我認為我們在那裡完成了令人難以置信的工作。

As we move into this period of time where demand is clearly slowing, and we've got lower new orders, to your point, you could end up with more years owned or more years controlled than what you realistically probably need. We think that's the beauty of the option strategy that we have undertaken over the last number of years.

隨著我們進入這個需求明顯放緩的時期，並且我們的新訂單減少，就您而言，您最終可能擁有比您實際可能需要的更多年或控制更多年。我們認為這就是我們在過去幾年中採用的期權策略的美妙之處。

And so we've got 2 potential options. Yes, you can work to trim the owned land position, but you can certainly also trim the option land percentage as well. Or as Bob highlighted, we've got the opportunity to renegotiate some of that on time.

所以我們有兩個潛在的選擇。是的，您可以努力削減擁有的土地位置，但您當然也可以削減期權土地百分比。或者正如鮑勃強調的那樣，我們有機會按時重新談判其中的一些內容。

So this is a business where you clearly need forward land. We like what we have under control, but we're not blindly rushing into every contract without given everything a second, third and fourth look to make sure that it still makes sense, based on current market conditions, but also based on our overall land pipeline and what we think we need to run a profitable, high-returning business in the future.

因此，這是一項您顯然需要前沿土地的業務。我們喜歡我們可以控制的東西，但我們不會盲目地匆忙簽訂每一份合同，而不是根據當前的市場條件，以及我們的整體土地，對所有內容進行第二、第三和第四次審視，以確保它仍然有意義管道以及我們認為我們需要在未來經營盈利、高回報的業務。

Bob, anything else you'd add on land or land pipeline?

鮑勃，你還想在陸地或陸地管道上添加什麼嗎？

No. Maybe the only thing I'd add, if you look at our owned lot position, we own 113,000 lots. 3 months ago, that was 112,000. So despite the investment that we've made in the current quarter, as an example, it's not like we're bulking up the owned position. And to Ryan's point, we've got flexibility with the option.

不。也許我唯一要補充的是，如果您查看我們擁有的手數，我們擁有 113,000 手。 3個月前，那是112,000。因此，儘管我們在本季度進行了投資，但作為一個例子，我們並沒有增加自有頭寸。就 Ryan 而言，我們在選項方面具有靈活性。

If you look at our quarterly growth in the balance sheet as an example, we put a lot of money on the balance sheet in this quarter. The majority of that was house, which is going to be quick turning for us. So we put $800-plus million into inventory in the quarter, which is reflective of that $1.1 billion that we spent on land and development. But again, a lot of that is house and it's the cycle time extension that we've talked about. And so we'll get that money back pretty quickly.

如果以我們在資產負債表中的季度增長為例，我們在本季度在資產負債表上投入了大量資金。其中大部分是房子，這對我們來說將是快速轉變。因此，我們在本季度將 800 多萬美元用於庫存，這反映了我們在土地和開發上花費的 11 億美元。但同樣，其中很多是房子，這是我們討論過的周期時間延長。所以我們會很快拿回這筆錢。

So hear you loud and clear, we have the ability to influence what our owned lot position looks like based on the strength of the book we have today.

因此，請大聲而清晰地聽到您的聲音，我們有能力根據我們今天擁有的書籍的實力來影響我們擁有的地段頭寸。

The next question is from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Bob, maybe on that last point, just talking about the inventory build and primarily the WIP build there. I just wanted to clarify your start pace strategy at this point. Ryan, I think your message is loud and clear that you guys are seeing relatively stronger demand on homes that are closer to delivery, which I think makes a lot of sense. At the same time, with build cycles where they are, you guys do kind of need to make a decision on where you potentially see demand going over the next 6, 9, 12 months. So have you actually been maintaining that pace of spec starts, assuming that, that's where the demand will continue going forward? Or have you started to dial that back a bit from where you were earlier in the year?

Bob，也許在最後一點，只是談論庫存構建，主要是那裡的 WIP 構建。我只是想在這一點上澄清你的起跑速度策略。 Ryan，我認為你的信息是響亮而明確的，你們看到對更接近交付的房屋的需求相對更強，我認為這很有意義。與此同時，隨著構建週期的發展，你們確實需要決定未來 6、9、12 個月的需求可能在哪裡。那麼，假設這就是需求將繼續向前發展的地方，那麼您實際上是否一直在保持規範啟動的速度？或者你有沒有開始從今年早些時候的位置往回撥一點？

Yes, Alan. So the pace of spec starts has been dialed back from where we were in the first part of the year, no question. Because we've seen demand subside or pull back for to-be-built as well as specs. But on a relative basis, there is more ability to get buyers across the finish line when we've got homes that are within kind of a 30- to 90-day delivery window.

是的，艾倫。因此，毫無疑問，規範啟動的速度已經從我們在今年上半年的水平回落。因為我們已經看到待建和規格的需求下降或回落。但相對而言，當我們的房屋在 30 到 90 天的交付窗口內時，更有能力讓買家越過終點線。

So proportionately, we're starting more specs relative to dirt sales compared to historical norms. That's a mouthful there. So on an absolute basis, it's less across the board. On a relative basis, we're doing more specs compared to dirt sales when you think about historical norms.

因此，與歷史規範相比，我們正在按比例開始更多與泥土銷售相關的規格。那是滿嘴的。因此，在絕對基礎上，它的全面性較低。相對而言，當您考慮歷史規範時，與泥土銷售相比，我們正在做更多的規格。

So Alan, I think the best way I can describe is we got one foot on the gas and we got one foot on the brake. We are managing this very aggressively. We want to have inventory that is available. The last thing we want to do is put ourselves into the penalty box by having too many finished specs.

所以艾倫，我認為我能描述的最好的方式是我們一隻腳踩油門，一隻腳踩剎車。我們正在非常積極地管理這一點。我們希望有可用的庫存。我們要做的最後一件事是通過擁有太多已完成的規格而將自己置於懲罰箱中。

Okay. That makes sense. And obviously, with cancellations normalizing, there's probably some unintentional specs that come out of that as well. And on that point, you mentioned that you're up to this point, have been able to resell those cancellations pretty easily. Curious, what's the margin differential been on those resales compared to what you thought the margin was going to be based on the initial sale and backlog versus where it's likely going to settle out at once you deliver the home now that it's been resold?

好的。那講得通。顯然，隨著取消正常化，可能還會出現一些無意的規範。在那一點上，你提到你已經到了這一點，已經能夠很容易地轉售這些取消。好奇，與您認為基於初始銷售和積壓的保證金與您交付房屋後可能會結算的保證金相比，這些轉售的保證金差異是多少？

Yes, it's interesting, Alan. The reality is that most of the cancellations are pretty fresh, right? It's usually in the first 30 or 60 days where either somebody can't get financing or has buyer remorse. And if you look at the body of cancellations that we had in this quarter, we didn't see a big uptick in the number that we're financing related. It was more buyer remorse. And so we haven't seen a big change in the margin profile for the folks that were in the backlog for a long time, so they may have signed their contract late in 2021.

是的，這很有趣，艾倫。現實情況是，大多數取消都很新鮮，對吧？通常是在前 30 或 60 天內，有人無法獲得融資或有買家悔恨。如果你看一下我們在本季度的取消數量，我們並沒有看到我們融資相關的數量有大幅上升。這是更多的買家悔恨。因此，對於長期積壓的人來說，我們沒有看到保證金狀況發生重大變化，因此他們可能在 2021 年末簽署了合同。

Honestly, and let's say, they just can't get financing for whatever reason. When we're reselling those homes, we actually see higher prices. And again, that's not the majority because most of the churn is earlier in the backlog. So not a huge differential because pricing hasn't moved that much in the 30, 60 days since people signed the contract.

老實說，讓我們說，無論出於何種原因，他們都無法獲得融資。當我們轉售這些房屋時，我們實際上看到了更高的價格。再說一次，這不是大多數，因為大部分流失都在積壓的早期。所以差別不大，因為在人們簽訂合同後的 30 到 60 天裡，定價並沒有太大變化。

The next question is from John Lovallo with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

Ryan, I think I heard you say something what I found very interesting. I just want to make sure I heard it correctly, but I think you said that as rates have sort of settled here a bit, that the ability to sell has improved. So I wanted to make sure that I heard that correctly.

Ryan，我想我聽到你說了一些我覺得很有趣的話。我只是想確保我沒聽錯，但我想你說過，由於利率在這裡有點穩定，銷售能力有所提高。所以我想確保我沒聽錯。

And I wanted to kind of get your thoughts on -- you've been through this many times before. Do you see this being a time of a prolonged sort of slowdown? Or do you think that this is something that's kind of more of a pause and that once rates do settle, I mean, who knows what they're going to sell higher or lower. But once they do finally settle, I mean, do you think that we're going to be back sort of on track again?

我想問問你的想法——你以前經歷過很多次。你認為這是一個長期放緩的時期嗎？或者你認為這更像是一種暫停，一旦利率穩定下來，我的意思是，誰知道他們會賣得更高或更低。但是一旦他們最終安定下來，我的意思是，你認為我們會再次回到正軌嗎？

Yes, John, I'm going to probably stop short of trying to prognosticate and forecast what the future will hold. But I will tell you, and we said it in our prepared remarks, we are long term very constructive on housing. We have a fundamental shortage of housing in this country. And I believe that as the Fed navigates this tricky situation of 40-year record high inflation and all the stimulus money and supply chain issues and all the things that have kind of -- that are going into our current economic environment. I do believe that housing will continue to have a very strong run.

是的，約翰，我可能會停止嘗試預測和預測未來會發生什麼。但我會告訴你，我們在準備好的評論中說過，我們長期對住房非常有建設性。我們在這個國家有一個根本性的住房短缺。我相信，隨著美聯儲應對 40 年來創紀錄的高通脹以及所有刺激資金和供應鏈問題以及所有類似的事情，這些事情都將進入我們當前的經濟環境。我確實相信房地產將繼續強勁增長。

So it's with that mindset that we're running our company. We're making decisions on how we invest, that we're making decisions on how we allocate capital, et cetera. So I think as we move forward, maybe in the medium term, the combination of affordability and consumer confidence is going to continue to drive kind of what happens with housing.

因此，我們正是帶著這種心態來經營我們的公司。我們正在決定我們如何投資，我們正在決定我們如何分配資本等等。所以我認為，隨著我們向前發展，也許在中期內，可負擔性和消費者信心的結合將繼續推動住房方面的發展。

We are seeing incomes go up. So somewhere in the middle of all of that soup, I would like to believe that over the long pull, housing continues to be successful.

我們看到收入在增加。所以在所有這些湯的中間的某個地方，我願意相信，從長遠來看，房地產繼續取得成功。

And then, John, I think I missed maybe the first part of your question, remind me what that was?

然後，約翰，我想我可能錯過了你問題的第一部分，提醒我那是什麼？

Sure. Just I think that you had mentioned when rates have settled and pulled back here a bit more recently that your ability to sell has actually improved.

當然。只是我認為你提到當利率穩定並最近回落時你的銷售能力實際上有所提高。

Yes. Probably a little bit of a dead cat balance, John. I think it was really tough following the last Fed meeting. I think we saw the consumer react quickly. And then as I think the consumer has come to terms with that as well as we've seen rates actually come down, I think there's been a positive trend in our sales offices. So there's a lot out there, as I think we've said, both financially and psychologically and I think the consumer is trying to deal with all those things.

是的。約翰，可能有點死貓平衡。我認為在上次美聯儲會議之後真的很艱難。我認為我們看到消費者反應迅速。然後，當我認為消費者已經接受了這一點並且我們已經看到利率實際上下降時，我認為我們的銷售辦事處出現了積極的趨勢。因此，正如我認為我們已經說過的那樣，無論是在經濟上還是心理上，那裡有很多東西，我認為消費者正在努力處理所有這些事情。

Got you. And then kind of dovetailing off of what Alan asked, I believe. The strategic decision towards more specs, kind of target the first-time buyer and the quick movement, makes a lot of sense in this environment. I guess how far are you guys willing to shift here? And then how quickly could you actually pivot back if we saw some stabilization?

得到你。然後有點與艾倫的要求相吻合，我相信。在這種環境下，針對更多規格、針對首次購買者和快速行動的戰略決策非常有意義。我猜你們願意在這裡轉移多遠？然後，如果我們看到一些穩定，您實際上能以多快的速度返回？

Yes. It's not just the first-time buyer. We'll be starting specs across the spectrum. And in terms of pivoting back, it can be quickly. That is a decision -- it's really just how many homes we want to start and how much demand there is. So if there is a leveling out of the market such that demand is pretty consistent, we can pivot back, particularly for that move up and active adult buyer where we think the real value of the build-to-order model is, very quickly.

是的。這不僅僅是首次購買者。我們將在整個範圍內開始規範。就轉回而言，它可以很快。這是一個決定——這實際上就是我們想要開辦多少房屋以及有多少需求。因此，如果市場趨於平穩，使得需求相當穩定，我們可以重新調整，特別是對於那些我們認為按訂單生產模式的真正價值非常快的向上移動和活躍的成年買家。

The next question is from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

First, I just wanted to circle back to some earlier comments around the increase in incentives, but also kind of highlighting some of the decrease in some of the input costs. You highlighted lumber, obviously, where you said maybe $10,000 a home. Copper, some other materials. As you think about the increase of specs today, maybe going up, call it, 150 basis points. Lumber itself of with $10,000 on a 500,000-plus home, that's also perhaps 150 basis points. As you look out, just kind of considering those factors, in and of themselves because obviously, there are a lot of other variables, does that kind of point to potentially first half gross margins holding 4Q levels? Or are there other factors that we should be considering as well?

首先，我只是想回到早期關於激勵措施增加的一些評論，但也強調了一些投入成本的減少。很明顯，你強調了木材，你說可能每家 10,000 美元。銅，其他一些材料。當您考慮今天的規格增加時，可能會上升，稱之為 150 個基點。在 500,000 多的房子上用 10,000 美元購買木材本身，這也可能是 150 個基點。如您所見，只是考慮這些因素本身，因為顯然還有很多其他變量，這是否表明上半年毛利率可能保持在第四季度的水平？還是我們還應該考慮其他因素？

Mike, I think it's too soon for that, honestly. We've obviously given our Q3 margin guide and a full year margin guide. We've got a big backlog, and so we've got good visibility into what that margin profile looks like. And then we've certainly made an estimate on the specs that we'll sell and close between now and the end of the year. But we'll give our 2023 margin guide later in the year.

邁克，老實說，我認為現在還為時過早。我們顯然已經給出了第三季度保證金指南和全年保證金指南。我們有大量的積壓工作，因此我們可以很好地了解保證金概況。然後我們當然已經對從現在到年底之間我們將出售和關閉的規格進行了估計。但我們將在今年晚些時候提供 2023 年保證金指南。

Secondly, obviously, you've gotten a few questions about your spec strategy and I think overall, we would still be fair to consider you guys predominantly a build-to-order builder. Just wanted to clarify, though, when you talk about -- you had said earlier that specs are still down on an absolute basis, but you're trying to raise or increase the percentage. If I heard it correctly, I thought that the percentage that you're currently at and that you're trying to increase is more trying to get back to a normalized target even within your build-to-order model? Or am I not thinking about that right and perhaps you're stretching the limits of where you would normally be and pushing a little bit of a higher level of spec on a relative percent of closings basis?

其次，很明顯，你已經收到了一些關於你的規格策略的問題，我認為總的來說，我們仍然公平地認為你們主要是按訂單生產的建設者。但是，只是想澄清一下，當您談論時-您之前說過規格仍然絕對下降，但是您正在嘗試提高或增加百分比。如果我沒聽錯的話，我認為即使在您的按訂單生產模型中，您當前的百分比以及您正在嘗試增加的百分比更多地是為了回到標準化目標？還是我沒有考慮到這一點，也許你正在擴大你通常的極限，並在相對關閉百分比的基礎上推動更高水平的規格？

Yes, Mike, I think that's right. We're at 30% today. So we're at the high side of what our historical range is. You'll probably see us push a little bit behind that, but beyond that but it's not as if we're going to go to 70% spec production.

是的，邁克，我認為這是對的。我們今天是 30%。因此，我們處於歷史範圍的高端。您可能會看到我們稍微落後一點，但除此之外，我們並不是要達到 70% 的規格生產。

So I think you'll see us predominantly stay a build-to-order builder. That's what we -- we believe that's the right way to run a homebuilder for us based on the consumers that we target and the way we do communities. But yes, you're going to see us stretch a little beyond maybe what our normal range is.

所以我想你會看到我們主要是一個按訂單生產的製造商。這就是我們 - 我們相信這是根據我們的目標消費者和我們開展社區的方式為我們經營房屋建築商的正確方式。但是，是的，你會看到我們的範圍超出了我們的正常範圍。

Bob highlighted that by design, we normally have more specs in our Centex communities, which are targeted to the first-time buyer. You'll see us put more spec inventory than what we normally do into our move-up and our active adult communities. But it will be a little bit more than normal.

Bob 強調，按照設計，我們通常在 Centex 社區中有更多規格，這些規格針對的是首次購買者。您會看到我們在升級和活躍的成人社區中投入的規格庫存比我們通常所做的要多。但這會比正常情況多一點。

Our final question for today is from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自花旗集團的 Anthony Pettinari。

This is André J. Hawaux on for Anthony. I just want to know, if interest rates stay roughly where they are now, should we expect your sort of elevated cancellation rate to persist into 3Q? Or maybe it drops back down more rapidly as sort of sticker shock wears off? And are you seeing elevated cancellation rates on the homes you're selling in July?

這是安東尼的安德烈·J·霍克斯。我只是想知道，如果利率大致保持在現在的水平，我們是否應該期望您的取消率升高會持續到第三季度？或者隨著貼紙衝擊的消退，它可能會更快地回落？您是否看到您在 7 月份出售的房屋的取消率有所提高？

Yes. So I think, as Bob highlighted, the uptick that we've seen in cancellations has really been in the last 30 to 60 days. And probably the leading driver has been buyers or more.

是的。所以我認為，正如鮑勃強調的那樣，我們在取消訂單中看到的上升確實是在過去 30 到 60 天。可能主要的驅動力是買家或更多。

So I think a big part of that comes from buyers that were caught -- they made a buying decision during the run-up in interest rates. And as interest rates and talk of recession have increased, their buyer's remorse has also increased or their fears increased with it. So I think as we get to stability and predictability, we'll likely see -- we should see that drop and our expectation would be that cancellation rates ought to more come into a normal range.

所以我認為其中很大一部分來自被抓住的買家——他們在利率上升期間做出了購買決定。隨著利率和經濟衰退的討論增加，他們的買家的悔恨也增加了，或者他們的恐懼也隨之增加。所以我認為，隨著我們達到穩定性和可預測性，我們可能會看到 - 我們應該看到下降，我們的預期是取消率應該更多地進入正常範圍。

Great. And then if I heard correctly on the call, you kind of kept your community count guidance unchanged from last quarter. And so just if I'm understanding correctly, a slowdown in sales would normally slow community closeouts or maybe like a higher community count. So is it just the reason for the unchanged guide maybe a deliberate slowdown in community openings or maybe some incremental horizontal development challenges, like, for example, permitting?

偉大的。然後，如果我在電話會議上沒聽錯，您的社區計數指南與上個季度相比保持不變。因此，如果我理解正確，銷售放緩通常會減緩社區收尾速度，或者可能會增加社區數量。那麼，是否只是指南未更改的原因可能是社區開放的故意放緩，或者可能是一些漸進的橫向發展挑戰，例如許可？

Yes. Obviously, we are dealing with the same kind of challenge as everybody else is. So it takes things a little bit longer to get open.

是的。顯然，我們正在應對與其他人一樣的挑戰。因此，打開它需要更長的時間。

I would tell you that close out, the impact isn't that great of stuff that didn't close that we thought was going to. So this is pretty much where we thought it would be and reflective of a challenging market to get things open.

我會告訴你，關閉，影響不是我們認為會關閉的東西那麼大。所以這幾乎是我們認為的地方，並且反映了一個具有挑戰性的市場開放。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn it over to Jim Zeumer for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把它交給 Jim Zeumer 做任何結束語。

Great. Appreciate everybody's time this morning. We'll certainly be available over the course of the day for any follow-up questions. Have a good day, and we look forward to speaking with you on the next call.

偉大的。感謝大家今天早上的時間。我們肯定會在一天中為任何後續問題提供服務。祝您有美好的一天，我們期待在下一次電話會議上與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。