寶潔 (PG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter-End Conference Call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。本次會議將進行錄音，以便回放。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends, and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

本次討論將包含若干前瞻性陳述。如果您查閱寶潔公司最新的10-K、10-Q和8-K報告，您會看到其中討論了可能導致公司實際業績與這些預測有重大差異的因素。根據G條例的要求，寶潔公司需要告知您，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非GAAP財務指標和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為這些指標能夠為投資者提供有關公司潛在業務趨勢的有用信息，並已在其投資者關係網站www.pginvestor.com上發布了非GAAP財務指標的完整調節表。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話交給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

各位早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是投資人關係資深副總裁約翰·謝瓦利埃。

Execution of our integrated strategy drove solid sales and market share results and another quarter of strong earnings and cash results. The strong results we've delivered in the first 3 quarters of fiscal '24 enable us to raise our outlook for core earnings per share and keep us on track to deliver within our fiscal year guidance ranges for organic sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners.

我們整合策略的有效執行推動了穩健的銷售額和市場份額成長，並實現了另一個季度強勁的利潤和現金流。 2024財年前三個季度取得的優異業績使我們能夠提高核心每股收益預期，並有望實現本財年有機銷售成長、現金流效率和股東現金回報的預期目標。

Specifically on the numbers. Organic sales grew 3%. Volume was in line with prior year, showing sequential progress. Pricing contributed 3 points to sales growth as we continue to annualize price increases taken last fiscal year. Mix was neutral to organic sales growth, and growth across categories continues to be broad-based with 8 of 10 product categories holding or growing organic sales in this quarter.

具體來看數據。有機銷售額成長了3%。銷售量與去年同期持平，呈現月增。由於我們持續將上財年的價格上漲納入年度考量，價格因素對銷售額成長貢獻了3個百分點。產品組合對有機銷售額成長的影響不大，各類別的成長依然較為均衡，本季10個產品類別中有8個品類的有機銷售額維持或成長。

Grooming organic sales grew double digits; Home Care and Hair Care up high singles; Oral Care grew mid-single digits; Fabric Care, Family Care, Feminine Care and Personal Health Care were up low singles; Skin and Personal Care and Baby Care organic sales were lower versus prior year.

男士護理有機銷售額實現兩位數增長；家居護理和頭髮護理實現高個位數增長；口腔護理實現中等個位數增長；織物護理、家庭護理、女性護理和個人健康護理實現低個位數增長；皮膚和個人護理以及嬰兒護理有機銷售額較上年有所下降。

Growth was also broad-based across geographies. North America, Europe and Asia Pacific Focus Markets and Latin America and Europe Enterprise Markets are each growing organic sales. Global aggregate value share was up versus prior year with 29 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share. Focus Markets grew organic sales 2% for the quarter and Enterprise Markets grew 4%.

成長遍及各個地區。北美、歐洲和亞太重點市場以及拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場的有機銷售額均實現成長。全球總價值份額較上年同期有所提升，前50大品類國家/地區組合中有29個保持或增長了市場份額。重點市場本季有機銷售額成長2%，企業市場成長4%。

Organic sales in North America grew 3% with 3 points of volume growth. Over the last 4 quarters, volume growth in North America has been plus 2%, plus 3%, plus 4% and now plus 3%. These results include over 1 point of impact from retail inventory reductions primarily in Personal Health Care. Consumer demand for P&G brands remains very strong in the U.S. with all outlet consumption value growth of 5%. All outlet value share was up 10 basis points versus prior year. U.S. volume share was up 40 basis points, reflecting continued strong volume growth ahead of the underlying market. The gap between consumer offtake of 5%, compared to our U.S. sales growth of 3%, reflects the aforementioned trade inventory reductions in the quarter.

北美地區的有機銷售額成長了3%，銷量成長了3個百分點。過去四個季度，北美地區的銷售成長率分別為2%、3%、4%和3%。這些績效包含了零售庫存減少（主要集中在個人健康照護領域）帶來的超過1個百分點的影響。美國消費者對寶潔品牌的需求依然強勁，所有通路的消費額成長了5%。所有通路的銷售額份額較上年同期成長了10個基點。美國銷售份額成長了40個基點，反映出銷售量持續強勁成長，高於市場整體水準。消費者消費額成長5%與美國銷售額成長3%之間的差距，反映了本季上述貿易庫存減少的影響。

Europe Focus Markets were up 7% with 4 points of volume growth. Value share in Europe Focus Markets was up 100 basis points over the past 3 months.

歐洲重點市場成長7%，銷售成長4個百分點。過去三個月，歐洲重點市場的市佔率成長了100個基點。

Latin America organic sales were up 17%. Argentina is a significant contributor to this result given the pricing taken to offset the more than 400% devaluation of the Argentine peso since the start of the year. Mexico and Brazil are annualizing high base periods with organic sales growth in the 20s and 30s, and we expect to normalize back to pre-COVID levels in the mid- to high single digits.

拉丁美洲有機銷售額成長17%。阿根廷是這一增長的主要貢獻者，因為該國採取了定價策略來抵消阿根廷比索自年初以來超過400%的貶值。墨西哥和巴西的有機銷售額成長率在20%至30%之間，這是由於基數較高，我們預期兩國的成長率將恢復到疫情前的中高個位數水準。

As we noted last quarter, there are some specific issues affecting other markets. Those challenges continue to impact results in the quarter. Greater China organic sales were down 10% versus prior year, progress versus the December quarter, but still impacted by weak underlying market conditions and headwinds for SK-II and other Japanese brands in the market. SK-II sales in Greater China were down around 30% for the quarter. We have seen some month-to-month improvement in overall Greater China sales trends, though we expect it will be another quarter or 2 until we return to growth.

正如我們上季度所指出的，其他市場也受到一些特定問題的影響。這些挑戰在本季持續影響著業績。大中華區有機銷售額年減10%，較去年12月季度有所改善，但仍受到疲軟的市場基本面以及SK-II和其他日本品牌在市場上面臨的不利因素的影響。 SK-II在大中華區的銷售額本季下降了約30%。我們看到大中華區整體銷售趨勢出現了一些環比改善，但我們預計還需要一到兩個季度才能恢復成長。

Volume trends in some of the European enterprise and Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia, have remained soft since the start of the heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also shipments in Russia continued to decline double digits given our reduced footprint and curtailed investments with consumers and retailers.

自中東局勢緊張升級以來，部分歐洲企業以及亞太、中東和非洲國家（如埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其、印尼和馬來西亞）的銷售趨勢持續疲軟。此外，由於我們在俄羅斯的業務規模縮減以及對消費者和零售商的投資減少，我們在俄羅斯的出貨量也持續出現兩位數下滑。

Combined, the headwinds from Greater China and Asia, Middle East, Africa markets were a 150 basis point impact on total company sales for the quarter. We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods.

大中華區和亞太、中東、非洲市場的不利因素合計對本季公司總銷售額造成了150個基點的影響。我們預計這些不利因素將在未來一段時間內有所緩解或趨於穩定。

Moving to the bottom line. Core earnings per share were $1.52, up 11% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 18%. Core gross margin increased 310 basis points and operating margin increased 90 basis points. Strong productivity improvement of 320 basis points enabled continued strong investment in superior products, packaging and consumer communication to drive market growth. Currency-neutral core operating margin increased 220 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 87%.

再來看最終結果。核心每股收益為1.52美元，較上年同期成長11%。以固定匯率計算，核心每股收益成長18%。核心毛利率成長310個基點，營業利益率成長90個基點。生產效率大幅提升320個基點，使得公司能夠持續大力投資優質產品、包裝和消費者溝通，進而推動市場成長。以固定匯率計算，核心營業利益率成長220個基點。調整後自由現金流效率為87%。

We returned $3.3 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.3 billion in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchase. Over 3 quarters, more than $10 billion returned to shareowners in dividends and repurchases. Last week, we announced a 7% increase in our dividend, again, reinforcing our commitment to return cash to shareowners. This is the 68th consecutive annual dividend increase and the 134th consecutive year P&G has paid a dividend.

我們向股東返還了33億美元現金，其中約23億美元為股息，10億美元用於股票回購。過去三個季度，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過100億美元。上週，我們宣布將股利提高7%，再次重申了我們向股東返還現金的承諾。這是我們連續第68年提高年度股息，也是寶潔公司連續第134年派發股息。

In summary, against what continues to be a challenging and volatile operating environment, strong overall results enabling us to increase our earnings projections for the year and to maintain our guidance ranges for organic sales and cash generation, all while sustaining strong investment in superiority to build category consumption and to restore business growth in China and in the Middle East.

總而言之，儘管經營環境持續充滿挑戰且動盪不安，但強勁的整體業績使我們能夠提高今年的盈利預期，並維持我們對有機銷售和現金流的指導範圍，同時繼續大力投資於卓越性，以促進品類消費，並恢復中國和中東地區的業務增長。

Our teams continue to operate with excellence, executing the integrated strategy that has enabled strong results over the past 5 years, and that is the foundation for balanced growth and value creation. A portfolio of daily-use products, many providing cleaning, health and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice. Ongoing commitment to and investment in Irresistible Superiority across the 5 vectors of product: Package, brand communication, retail execution and value for each price tier where we compete.

我們的團隊持續高效運作，貫徹執行過去五年取得顯著成效的整合策略，這正是我們實現均衡成長和價值創造的基石。我們擁有豐富的日用產品組合，其中許多產品在清潔、健康和衛生方面具有顯著優勢，而產品性能在這些品類中對品牌選擇起著至關重要的作用。我們始終致力於在產品五大維度——包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行以及在各個價格區間內的價值——打造無可匹敵的卓越品質，並持續加大投入。

We are again raising the bar on our superiority standards to reflect the dynamic nature of this strategy. Productivity improvements in all areas of our operations to fund investments in superiority offset cost and currency challenges, expand margins and deliver strong cash generation. An approach of constructive disruption and willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future. Finally, an organization that is empowered, agile and accountable.

為了體現這項策略的動態特性，我們再次提升了卓越標準。我們致力於在所有營運領域提高生產力，為卓越營運的投資提供資金，從而抵消成本和匯率挑戰，擴大利潤率，並實現強勁的現金流。我們採取建設性變革的方式，勇於改變、適應並創造新的趨勢和技術，引領產業未來發展。最終，我們將打造一個充滿活力、靈活敏捷且責任擔當的組織。

We continue to improve the execution of the integrated strategy with 4 focus areas: Strong progress on Supply Chain 3.0, digital acumen, environmental sustainability, and a superior employee value equation. These 4 focus areas are not new or separate strategies. They simply strengthen our ability to execute the strategy.

我們持續改善整合策略的執行，重點在於以下四個面向：供應鏈3.0的顯著進展、數位化能力、環境永續性以及卓越的員工價值體系。這四個重點領域並非新的或獨立的策略，而是旨在增強我們執行該策略的能力。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization, reinforce and build on each other. When executed well, they grow markets which in turn grow share, sales and profit. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable top and bottom line growth is to double down on this integrated strategy, starting with a commitment to deliver Irresistibly Superior propositions to consumers and retail partners fueled by productivity.

我們在產品組合、卓越性、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織架構方面的策略選擇，彼此相互促進、相輔相成。若執行得當，便能拓展市場，進而提升市場佔有率、銷售額和利潤。我們始終堅信，實現可持續的營收和利潤成長的最佳途徑，是加倍投入這項整合策略，首先致力於為消費者和零售合作夥伴提供卓越非凡的產品和服務，並以生產力為驅動力。

Moving on to guidance. As I mentioned, we expect the environment around us to continue to be volatile and challenging, from input costs to currencies, to consumer, retailer, and geopolitical dynamics. However, our strong results year-to-date enable us to raise or maintain key guidance metrics for the year.

接下來談談業績展望。正如我之前提到的，我們預計我們所處的環境將繼續充滿波動和挑戰，涵蓋原材料成本、匯率、消費者、零售商以及地緣政治動態等許多方面。然而，我們今年迄今的強勁業績使我們能夠上調或維持全年關鍵業績預期。

We're maintaining our guidance range for organic sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year. We're squarely in the middle of this range fiscal year-to-date. This outlook assumes continued normalization in underlying market growth rates that we've seen over the past few quarters: Markets will be lapping the last waves of cost recovery pricing and volumes slowly begin to recover. We also expect the market-level changes we faced through quarter 3 to continue in Q4, though with some directional improvement.

我們維持本財年有機銷售成長4%至5%的預期區間。截至目前，我們的業績正處於該區間的中部。這項預期是基於過去幾季以來我們所看到的市場成長率持續正常化的假設：市場將逐漸擺脫成本回收定價的衝擊，銷售量也將開始緩慢復甦。我們預計第三季以來市場層面的變化將在第四季度延續，但整體趨勢將會有所改善。

On the bottom line, enabled by 15% core EPS growth year-to-date, we are raising our outlook for fiscal '24, core earnings per share from a range of 8% to 9% to a range of 10% to 11%. This outlook includes continued strong investments in innovation and brand building to grow markets and extend the superiority of P&G offerings to consumers. We now estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $900 million after tax in fiscal '24 based on current spot prices. This is a modest improvement versus the outlook we provided last quarter, though nearly all of this benefit has been booked in the first 3 quarters of the year.

綜上所述，得益於今年迄今15%的核心每股收益成長，我們將2024財年的核心每股收益預期從8%至9%上調至10%至11%。這項預期包括持續增加對創新和品牌建立的投入，以拓展市場並提升寶潔產品對消費者的卓越價值。根據目前的現貨價格，我們預計2024財年大宗商品價格上漲將帶來約9億美元的稅後收益。雖然這比我們上季度的預期略有提升，但幾乎所有收益都已在今年前三個季度計入。

We now expect foreign exchange to be a headwind of approximately $600 million after tax for the fiscal year. The change versus prior guidance reflects volatility in Argentina exchange rates, including a period of currency appreciation in quarter 3 and a revised devaluation outlook for quarter 4. We also reflect a reduction in Argentina FX exposure due to the divestiture of our Argentina Fabric and Home Care business which we completed in mid-March, and reduced assumptions for future volume and pricing given the current rate outlook and recent shipment trends. The net impact of these changes is a relatively modest help to the bottom line, which is reflected in our updated EPS outlook.

我們現在預計，本財年稅後外匯波動將造成約6億美元的不利影響。與先前預期相比，此調整反映了阿根廷匯率的波動，包括第三季的貨幣升值以及對第四季度貨幣貶值的修正預期。此外，由於我們在3月中旬完成了阿根廷織物和家居護理業務的剝離，阿根廷外匯風險敞口有所降低；同時，鑑於當前的匯率前景和近期的出貨趨勢，我們也下調了對未來銷量和價格的預期。這些調整對公司獲利的淨影響相對較小，這已反映在我們更新後的每股盈餘預期中。

We expect higher net interest expense of approximately $100 million after tax versus prior year. General inflation and higher wage and benefit costs are also earnings headwinds for the year. We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%. And we expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends, to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock. Combined, a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareowners for the year.

我們預計稅後淨利息支出將比上年增加約1億美元。通貨膨脹以及工資和福利成本的上漲也將對今年的獲利構成不利影響。我們預計調整後的自由現金流效率為90%。我們預計將支付超過90億美元的股息，並回購50億至60億美元的普通股。總計，我們計劃在年內向股東返還140億至150億美元的現金。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption or major production stoppages are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.

此展望基於當前的市場成長率預估、大宗商品價格和匯率。預計在此預測範圍內不會出現貨幣大幅貶值、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治動盪或重大生產中斷等情況。

Finally, we'll be closely watching the more volatile regions we mentioned earlier, including the health of the China market. And we'll be keeping a close watch on competitive dynamics to ensure P&G brands remain a superior value for consumers and for retailers.

最後，我們將密切關注先前提到的波動較大的地區，包括中國市場的健康狀況。同時，我們將密切關注市場競爭動態，以確保寶潔品牌對消費者和零售商始終具有卓越價值。

The entire P&G organization remains focused on excellent execution of our integrated market-constructive strategy, which has delivered strong results in a challenging operating and competitive environment. While we expect volatile consumer and macro dynamics to continue, we are confident the best path forward is to double down on this strategy, remain fully invested to drive Irresistible Superiority across every part of our portfolio, and stay focused on delivering balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation for our shareowners.

寶潔公司全體員工將繼續專注於卓越執行我們整合的市場建設性策略，該策略已在充滿挑戰的營運和競爭環境中取得了顯著成效。儘管我們預期消費者和宏觀經濟的波動性將持續存在，但我們堅信，最佳的前進方向是加倍投入這一策略，持續加大投入，力求在我們所有產品組合中實現卓越競爭力，並專注於為股東創造均衡的營收和利潤增長及價值。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

那麼，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）今天您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Andre, I wanted to talk a little bit about market growth versus market share. So first off, if you could just -- I know you said volatile a few times. But just if you could give us a sense for sort of a high-level expectation for global market growth over the next 12 months.

安德烈，我想稍微談談市場成長與市佔率之間的關係。首先，如果您能——我知道您之前提到過幾次市場波動性——那就太好了。但您能否大致預測未來12個月全球市場成長的預期？

And then digging in a little bit more specifically. You shared -- you offered comments on share performance, particularly in North America and also in Europe Focus. But I was curious if you could talk maybe about market share trends or the degree you can tell in China. And maybe let's talk about it excluding SK-II because I think that's an issue unto itself. but just a sense of P&G's performance versus the China market overall. And since it's been lagging for quite a while, arguably, things that you guys are seeing, addressing, doing differently or considering doing differently to shift that trend.

然後我們再深入探討一下。您分享了關於市場佔有率表現的評論，尤其是在北美和歐洲市場。但我很好奇您能否談談市場佔有率趨勢，或者說您在中國市場觀察到的情況。或許我們可以先排除SK-II，因為我認為它本身就是一個值得探討的問題。我們只是想了解寶潔在中國市場的整體表現。鑑於寶潔在中國市場的份額已經落後相當長一段時間了，您能否談談您觀察到的、正在應對的、正在採取的或正在考慮採取的措施，以扭轉這一趨勢。

Very good. Lauren, so let me start with overall consumption strength because it really is and continues to be strong. The consumption trends in the markets are stable despite multiple headwinds, and P&G is growing consumer offtake in terms of value share in 29 of our top 50 category country combinations.

很好。勞倫，那我先從整體消費實力說起，因為整體消費實力確實強勁，而且這種強勁勢頭還將持續下去。儘管面臨許多不利因素，市場消費趨勢仍穩定，寶潔在排名前50位的品類國家組合中，有29個組合的消費者購買量（以價值份額計算）都在成長。

Globally, we are growing value share by 10 basis points. And the consumption trends are really strong across markets with few exceptions, which we'll get into. U.S. consumption in quarter 3 was 5%, and P&G value share is up. So our consumption actually grew ahead of that, both in terms of value and in terms of volume, actually with volume share being up 40 basis points on all outlet in the most recent period. So continued strength in consumption trends in North America and continued strength in terms of P&G performance within that consumption.

在全球範圍內，我們的價值份額增加了10個基點。除少數例外情況（我們稍後會詳細介紹）外，各市場的消費趨勢都非常強勁。美國第三季的消費量為5%，寶潔的價值份額增加。因此，我們的消費成長實際上超過了預期，無論是價值還是銷量，最近一個季度所有通路的銷售份額都成長了40個基點。北美地區的消費趨勢持續強勁，寶潔在該消費領域的業績也持續強勁。

Europe Focus Markets consumption is in the range of 8% to 9%, also very strong. And we are growing by more than a share point within that market. Both volume growth very strong with 4 points in the quarter and 3 points of price/mix. And Europe Enterprise Markets are growing. And so the business from a consumption standpoint, which really for us is the most important metric, is in a good place.

歐洲重點市場的消費量成長在 8% 到 9% 之間，同樣非常強勁。我們在該市場的市佔率成長超過一個百分點。銷售成長強勁，本季成長 4 個百分點，價格/產品組合成長 3 個百分點。歐洲企業市場也在成長。因此，從消費量的角度來看（這對我們來說是最重要的指標），業務狀況良好。

We continue to deal with very specific headwinds in quarter 3 that we've discussed already in quarter 2, but they continue. There's a soft market consumption in China. We'll get more into that to the second part of your question. SK-II continues to be a headwind in the quarter, and we see some impact from tensions in the Middle East. When you sum it all up, that's about 1.5-point impact on the global top line. And then we have the inventory reduction in North America, which is about 1 point on the global top line as well.

第三季我們繼續面臨一些在第二季已經討論過的具體不利因素，這些因素依然存在。中國市場消費疲軟，我們將在回答您問題的第二部分時詳細闡述。 SK-II在本季仍然是一個不利因素，中東地區的緊張局勢也帶來了一定的影響。綜合來看，這些因素對全球營收的影響約為1.5個百分點。此外，北美地區的庫存削減也對全球營收造成了約1個百分點的影響。

And if you put it together, 2 conclusions. One, the headwinds that we're calling out are temporary in nature. So first of all, the inventory reduction, which is a point on the top line. We expect that to be a single event, not a continued phenomena to observe. It was mainly driven by Personal Health Care because the supply situation is stabilizing after a softer season so retailers don't need to hold safety stock. And the headwinds in China on SK-II and in the Middle East will ease over time and eventually annualize over the coming quarters.

綜上所述，我們可以得出兩個結論。第一，我們提到的這些不利因素本質上是暫時的。首先是庫存減少，這直接影響了營收。我們預計這只是一個孤立事件，不會持續存在。庫存減少主要由個人健康護理業務推動，因為在經歷了淡季之後，供應情況正在趨於穩定，零售商不再需要持有安全庫存。其次，SK-II在中國和中東市場面臨的不利因素也會隨著時間的推移而緩解，並在未來幾季逐漸趨於穩定。

That does not mean that we will ignore any of the headwinds. We are fully focused on accelerating growth in China on SK-II and driving sustainable growth in Asia and Middle East markets, but it explains that we can hold our organic sales growth guidance at 4% to 5%. We're very confident in that. And fiscal year-to-date, as we mentioned in the script, we're right at that level.

但這並不意味著我們會忽略任何不利因素。我們正全力以赴加速SK-II在中國市場的成長，並推動亞洲和中東市場的永續成長，但這同時也解釋了為什麼我們可以將有機銷售成長預期維持在4%至5%。我們對此非常有信心。正如我們在簡報中所提到的，本財年迄今為止，我們的成長也正好達到了這一水準。

Last point on that topic. We remain fully invested, and the gross margin progress the team has made is actually enabling us to continue to double down on investments to drive market growth and drive our own consumption and share within that.

關於這個主題的最後一點。我們仍然保持著充足的投資，團隊在毛利率方面取得的進展實際上使我們能夠繼續加大投資力度，以推動市場成長，並提升我們自身的消費量和市場份額。

Specifically on China, to the second part of your question, Lauren. I think it's a good way to look at China excluding SK-II, as you suggest. We are making sequential progress. The share in the most recent read is flat. And our shipments or our organic sales in China are improving quarter-over-quarter.

關於中國市場，Lauren，針對你問題的第二部分，我認為正如你建議的那樣，將SK-II排除在外來分析中國市場是一個不錯的方法。我們正穩步推進。最新數據顯示，市佔率保持穩定。而且，我們在中國市場的出貨量或有機銷售額較上季成長。

If you look at quarter 2, our organic sales excluding SK-II in China were down 10%. In the most recent quarter, they were down 3%. So we're making progress. The market is not yet recovering, but we see the trajectory going in the right direction.

如果看第二季度，我們在中國不計入SK-II的有機銷售額下降了10%。在最近一個季度，這一數字下降了3%。所以我們正在取得進展。市場尚未完全復甦，但我們看到發展趨勢是正確的。

We have pockets of strength. Baby Care, for example, in China, has grown 11% in the current quarter. Our appliance business growing 14%. We are making strong investments in our Hair Care business with a more streamlined portfolio. And we feel good about our ability to continue to drive market growth, be market-constructive in China, and see the upside as we've articulated before on a longer term participating in the Chinese market.

我們擁有一些優勢領域。例如，在中國，嬰幼兒護理業務本季成長了11%。家電業務成長了14%。我們正在大力投資護髮業務，並優化產品組合。我們對自身能力充滿信心，相信能夠繼續推動市場成長，在中國市場發揮積極作用，並如我們之前所述，長期參與中國市場將帶來巨大收益。

Will it be a straight line to recovery? No. It probably takes a few more quarters before we turn back to growth. But we see the trend line improving.

復甦之路會一帆風順嗎？不會。可能還需要幾個季度才能恢復成長。但我們看到成長趨勢正在改善。

The next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Andre, I think you mentioned that nearly all of the commodity benefits that you expected this year, you've essentially fully benefited from through the third quarter. And we've seen year-to-date in the calendar year, [spot price of oil on investments and production costs]. So I guess just some thoughts on that in terms of how that impacts your early planning for fiscal '25.

安德烈，我想你提到過，你今年預期的大部分大宗商品利好因素，在第三季度基本上都已完全顯現。而且，從今年迄今的情況來看，[原油現貨價格對投資和生產成本的影響]。所以我想請教一下，這會對你2025財年的早期規劃有哪些影響？

And maybe sort of related to that, just your confidence in your view, visibility into the productivity pipeline. And can we expect, and do you have confidence, you can run at an accelerated cadence of productivity over the next 12 to 18 months as well based on that pipeline?

或許與此相關的是，您對自身觀點以及生產力提昇路徑的可見度是否充滿信心？基於目前的生產力提昇路徑，我們是否可以預期，並且您是否有信心，在未來12到18個月內，能夠以更快的速度提升生產力？

Yes. So commodity benefits, as we've mentioned in the script and you correctly state, have been really impacting fiscal year-to-date results. Any remaining change, and we see, obviously, the impact of oil running up a little bit and also other commodities like pulp, for example, where the supply situation is a little bit tighter, are coming up. There will be some impact on the current fiscal year. But given flow-through of contracts and various holding policies, I expect that to be limited. And we've anticipated that within our updated guidance ranges. So no impact to the current fiscal year.

是的。正如我們在腳本中所提到的，也正如您所言，大宗商品價格上漲確實對本財年迄今的業績產生了顯著影響。當然，我們也看到，油價小幅上漲以及其他大宗商品（例如紙漿）供應略顯緊張的影響即將顯現。這些因素會對本財年業績產生一定影響。但考慮到合約的執行以及各種持有政策，我預計這種影響將十分有限。我們在更新後的業績指引範圍內也已預料到這一點。因此，不會對本財年業績造成影響。

Obviously, if spot prices hold, you correctly state it will have an impact on next year. But I do feel strongly about our ability, and I think we've proven it over the past 2 years, that with a combination of strong innovation, good reasonable pricing, combined with that innovation and strong productivity, whatever comes our way, we'll be able to handle.

顯然，如果現貨價格保持不變，正如您所說，這將對明年產生影響。但我對我們的能力充滿信心，而且我認為過去兩年我們已經證明了這一點：憑藉強大的創新能力、合理的定價策略以及高效的生產能力，無論面臨什麼挑戰，我們都能應對。

On the productivity pipeline, I feel very good about where we are. We have now across all businesses, a 3-year, what I would call a productivity master plan, which is something that we invested a lot of energy and time on in each business to make sure that we generate enough ideas, even those that take longer to implement, specifically as we work with our retail partners and we work with our supply chains to really fundamentally improve the efficiency of some of our combined processes.

在生產力提升方面，我對我們目前的進展感到非常滿意。我們現在在所有業務部門都制定了一項為期三年的生產力總體規劃，我們為此投入了大量的精力和時間，以確保我們能夠產生足夠多的想法，即使是那些需要更長時間才能實施的想法，尤其是在我們與零售合作夥伴和供應鏈合作的過程中，我們能夠真正從根本上提高一些綜合流程的效率。

We have great visibility over 3 years. The top line is sufficient to what we need it to be. So the part I feel really strong about is productivity. It's fully in our control. And I think the teams are doing a great job creating projects and creating visibility to a very strong pipeline over the coming years.

我們對未來三年的發展前景非常清晰。目前的營收足以滿足我們的需求。因此，我最有信心的是生產力。這完全在我們掌控之中。我認為團隊在專案開發和未來幾年強勁的業務成長方面做得非常出色。

The next question is from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

Andre, I was hoping if you can elaborate a little bit more on the flat price/mix in the U.S. in fiscal 3Q, if are you seeing any down-trade within your portfolio? Or is that self-inflicted as you offer more IGM on the lower price points? Or anything about packing that we should be aware of?

安德烈，我想請你詳細解釋一下美國第三財季的價格/組合情況，你的投資組合中是否有降級交易的情況？還是這是因為你在低價位段增加了IGM的配置而導致的？關於產品包裝方面，還有什麼需要我們注意的嗎？

And also related to that, I saw you mentioned in your release about the pricing-related volume declines in Baby Care. Is that mostly China? Is there anything you can elaborate? Or is that also the U.S.?

另外，我看到您在新聞稿中提到了嬰兒護理產品銷售因價格上漲而下降的問題。這種情況主要發生在中國嗎？能否詳細說明一下？還是美國也存在同樣的問題？

And I think to Steve's commentary about commodities and question about commodities, anything you can talk to us regarding the lag that we're going to see that coming through into fiscal '25?

我想就史蒂夫關於大宗商品的評論和關於大宗商品的問題談談您能否跟我們談談我們將在 2025 財年看到的滯後效應？

Andrea, look, the flat price/mix contribution to organic sales growth in the U.S. is an outcome of simply annualizing the price increases that we had taken in previous periods. That was anticipated. And it's consistent with what we're seeing in terms of the construction of the market growth across the U.S. The volume component is coming up, getting closer to about 2%. And the value component is coming down. Different players have priced at different points. So that's really the differential between market and us.

安德里亞，你看，美國市場有機銷售成長中價格/產品組合的穩定貢獻，只是因為我們之前幾個時期的價格上漲被年化了。這在預料之中。而且，這與我們觀察到的美國市場成長結構一致。銷量部分正在上升，接近2%左右。而價值部分則在下降。不同的廠商定價策略不同。這就是市場與我們之間的真正差異。

There is no trade-down of note that I -- that we can observe. Private-label shares -- value shares are actually very stable, 16.4% past 1 month and 16.4% past 12 months. So consumers are not trading down within the U.S. towards private label. And if anything, we continue to see, when consumers trade into P&G, which they continue to do because both volume share up strongly in the U.S., and value share up, once they trade into P&G propositions, they continue to trade up actually within those propositions. Be it from liquid detergent to unit dose to PowerMop. So we continue to observe that. So no worries in terms of trade-down.

我們目前沒有觀察到明顯的消費降級現象。自有品牌市佔率——尤其是價值份額——實際上非常穩定，過去一個月和過去12個月均為16.4%。因此，美國消費者並沒有轉向自有品牌。相反，我們持續觀察到，當消費者轉向寶潔產品時（這種情況仍在持續，因為寶潔在美國的銷售份額和價值份額都大幅增長），他們往往會繼續在寶潔的產品系列中進行升級，例如從液體洗滌劑升級到單劑量洗滌劑再到電動拖把。因此，我們持續觀察到這種趨勢。所以，無需擔心消費降級問題。

On Baby specifically, look, Baby is annualizing a very strong base period and obviously was heavily exposed to the commodity run-up, and therefore took pricing, and in combination with productivity and strong innovation.

具體來說，就 Baby 而言，你看，Baby 的年化基期非常強勁，而且顯然受到了大宗商品價格上漲的嚴重影響，因此價格上漲了，再加上生產力和強大的創新能力。

The volume decline, I would say, is really differential by region. If you look at China, the business is growing very strongly. It's actually 11% growth in the quarter, share growth of more than 1 point in China, and that's with birth rates contracting. So the portfolio strength in China is remarkable.

我認為，銷量下滑的程度因地區而異。以中國市場為例，業務成長非常強勁。本季實際成長了11%，市佔率成長超過1個百分點，而這還是在出生率下降的情況下實現的。因此，中國市場的業務表現非常出色。

When I look at the U.S., the premium tier, so when you look at Swaddlers, you look at Cruisers and Cruisers 360, those -- that -- those tiers we have been innovating in very strongly over the past 12, 15 months, and they are growing. They are growing share and they are growing sales.

當我審視美國市場時，就會發現高階產品線，像是Swaddlers、Cruisers和Cruisers 360，這些產品線——這些產品線——在過去的12到15個月裡，我們一直在大力創新，而且它們正在成長。它們的市場份額和銷售額都在增長。

Where we have an opportunity in the U.S. is on the mid-tier, on Luvs for example. We have not been able to push the full innovation pipeline out for different reasons. And that's what the team really is focused on, to reestablish superiority on those few businesses where we feel that we let value get a little bit out of sync with what the consumer needs. But the plans are there, so now it's a matter of execution.

我們在美國的機會在於中階市場，例如Luvs。由於種種原因，我們一直未能全面推出創新產品。而這正是團隊目前的工作重點：重新確立我們在少數業務領域的領先地位，因為我們認為在這些領域，我們的產品價值與消費者需求略有脫節。計劃已經制定完畢，現在的問題在於執行。

So we feel very good overall about the Baby Care business. Strong innovation pipeline, and that I think will address the isolated superiority gaps that we might have.

因此，我們對嬰兒護理業務的整體前景非常樂觀。我們擁有強大的創新管道，我認為這將彌補我們可能存在的個別優勢差距。

On commodities, it's very difficult to say when they would actually flow through. I think it's safe to say that there's at least 60 to 90 days of delay. Many of the commodities will take longer to flow through simply because of contracts structures that use certain trigger points or holding periods. So I would say at least 60 to 90 days. For many of them, probably longer. The only one that tends to flow through quickly is fuel, diesel, obviously, because it's captured in transportation.

大宗商品的交割時間很難預測。我認為至少會有60到90天的延遲。許多大宗商品交割時間較長，主要是因為合約結構包含某些觸發點或持有期。所以我認為至少要60到90天。對很多商品來說，時間可能更長。唯一交割速度快的商品是燃料，例如柴油，因為運輸成本包含在內。

The next question is from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。

We just touched on pricing, maybe we can switch to the volume side. Could you just talk about your level of visibility and perhaps a bit of magnitude that you're expecting in Q4 in terms of returning to volume growth going forward? Obviously, a flat result this quarter, but there were some items that depressed volume that get better going forward in terms of U.S. inventory, SK-II weakness, et cetera. So just looking for some perspective going forward, particularly as pricing presumably continues to decelerate a bit.

我們剛才談到了定價，或許我們可以轉到銷售方面。您能否談談您對第四季銷售成長的預期，以及預期銷售成長的幅度？顯然，本季業績持平，但一些因素拖累了銷量，例如美國庫存、SK-II銷量疲軟等等，這些因素預計將在未來有所改善。因此，我想了解未來的發展前景，尤其是在價格成長可能會繼續放緩的情況下。

And also maybe you can just touch on, given the heavy marketing this year, presumably with the SG&A increases, the level of payback and ROI you think you're getting on that higher marketing in terms of volume.

另外，鑑於今年行銷投入龐大，銷售、一般及行政費用也可能增加，您能否談談您認為從更高的行銷投入中獲得的收益和投資回報率（以銷量衡量）如何？

On the volume side, look, I think the effects that we described that are holding us back in the current quarter, the inventory effect in the U.S. of 2 points, which is 1 point on a global basis, I don't expect that to hold. So I expect the U.S. to continue to grow in terms of volume beyond the 3% that we're seeing in the current quarter. I expect some of the negative headwinds in China, the Middle East and SK-II hopefully will improve sequentially.

就銷售量而言，我認為我們之前提到的那些阻礙本季成長的因素，例如美國庫存影響導致的2個百分點的銷售下滑（全球平均下滑幅度為1個百分點），我預期這種情況不會持續。因此，我預計美國銷量將繼續成長，超過本季3%的成長速度。同時，我也希望中國、中東以及SK-II市場的一些不利因素能夠較上季改善。

But in aggregate, I fully expect the markets to continue to recover, shift more towards volume growth as we've seen consistently over the recent periods. And since we're growing or holding volume share in most geographies, that will also flow into our results. So sequential progress on volumes. Many open questions still, but I expect the line to point upwards.

但總體而言，我完全預期市場將持續復甦，並像近期那樣持續轉向銷售成長。由於我們在大多數地區的銷售份額都在成長或保持穩定，這也將反映在我們的業績中。因此，銷量將穩定成長。雖然仍有許多懸而未決的問題，但我預計整體趨勢將向上發展。

On marketing spend, you're right, we continue to invest in reach, frequency with strong quality of communication across the markets. We are very diligent in pre-ROI analysis and very diligent in post-event analysis to ensure that we understand whether the spending is effective. And if you look at the results, I would argue it is.

關於行銷支出，您說得對，我們一直在加大投入，提高覆蓋率和頻次，並在各個市場提供高品質的溝通。我們非常重視活動前後的投資報酬率分析，以確保了解支出是否有效。如果您看一下結果，我認為是有效的。

The strongest combinations of great product innovation with a very sharp consumer insight, translated into a great copy, drives strong results. So if you look for example at our Skin and Personal Care business, Old Spice and Secret Total Body deodorant, great consumer insight, great product, great packaging, strong communication, and the business is growing 11% in North America.

將卓越的產品創新與敏銳的消費者洞察相結合，並轉化為優秀的文案，才能帶來強勁的業績。例如，看看我們的護膚和個人護理業務，Old Spice 和 Secret Total Body 除臭劑，它們都擁有敏銳的消費者洞察、出色的產品、精美的包裝和有效的溝通，在北美市場實現了 11% 的成長。

If you look at our Home Care portfolio, those are categories that are expandable. With PowerMop, for example, getting new users to use Febreeze plug-ins, those marketing investments grow the market and they grow our share within the market. So expandable categories is a big investment area for us.

如果您看一下我們的居家護理產品組合，您會發現這些都是可以拓展的類別。例如，對於 PowerMop 來說，透過推廣 Febreeze 插件，吸引新用戶使用，這些行銷投入不僅能擴大市場，還能提升我們的市場佔有率。因此，可拓展的品類是我們重點投資的領域。

So we continue to drive high levels of discipline. We will not spend if there's no ROI. And you're right, we're watching the same and asking the same question to ensure that we remain on the right side of that line.

因此，我們繼續堅持高度自律。如果沒有投資報酬率，我們就不會花錢。您說得對，我們也在密切關注並提出同樣的問題，以確保我們始終堅守底線。

The next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

Maybe, Andre, just to pick up on that last point. I guess if we think about year-to-date and I guess as it translates to the full year and the base, we have some headwinds that shouldn't recur, right. The weakness in corporate, chemicals, the destock that you just mentioned, SK-II I guess being more negative than overall market in China for the reasons we know. So I guess, as we kind of think about next year, right, and confidence in being able to be in line with long-term organic sales targets, is -- does the comps make it easier? Should we be thinking about the macro environment maybe not being supportive? Just try to put some context around the organic sales growth this quarter, right, which decelerated from the last quarter. And just is there anything we should be thinking about as we move -- we start thinking about our models for next year?

安德烈，或許我可以再補充一下最後一點。我想，如果我們考慮今年迄今為止的情況，並將其轉化為全年基數，我們會發現一些不利因素，這些因素應該不會再次出現，對吧？例如企業、化工產業的疲軟，你剛剛提到的去庫存，還有SK-II在中國市場的表現比整體市場更為糟糕，原因我們都很清楚。所以，我想，當我們展望明年，以及我們是否有信心實現長期有機銷售目標時，關鍵在於──同店銷售是否會降低目標？我們是否應該考慮宏觀環境可能不利於成長？試著分析本季的有機銷售成長情況，它比上一季放緩。當我們開始考慮明年的模型時，還有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Bryan, I would point first to the market growth expectation, which we said we expect markets to be in the range of 3% to 4% in terms of value growth. And that will be a combination of 2 points of volume and 1 to 2 points of price/mix. That is still our assumption. Our role per our growth algorithm is to be growing slightly ahead of that by driving market growth, which in turn will drive share and a bigger part of us leading the market. So that would be my answer.

布萊恩，首先我想談談市場成長預期。我們預期市場價值成長率將在3%到4%之間。這其中2個百分點來自銷售成長，1到2個百分點來自價格/產品組合成長。這仍然是我們的假設。根據我們的成長演算法，我們的目標是略微領先於市場成長，從而推動市場成長，進而提升市場份額，並使我們成為市場領導者。這就是我的回答。

On the current fiscal year, obviously, by reiterating guidance of 4% to 5% and being right in the middle of that range fiscal year-to-date, that means mathematically, we expect quarter 4 to be in the 4% to 5% range. And if you project that out, I think with the market growth dynamic I was describing, I think that will give you a good starting point for next fiscal year.

就本財年而言，顯然，我們重申了4%至5%的業績指引，而本財年迄今的業績也恰好處於該區間的中部，這意味著從數學角度來看，我們預計第四季度的業績也將在4%至5%的範圍內。如果將這一預測延續下去，我認為結合我之前描述的市場成長動態，這將為下一財年奠定良好的基礎。

The next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I just had a clarification on your guidance. You maintain your FY '24 organic sales growth of 4% to 5%, but that implies a step-up of growth in Q4 to get to the high end of your range. So I guess I wanted to clarify if you still expect to be at the high end. Or should we assume coming in at maybe the midpoint of your top line guide for the year is more realistic?

我剛剛對您的業績指引有一個疑問。您維持2024財年4%至5%的有機銷售成長預期，但這意味著第四季需要加速成長才能達到預期範圍的上限。所以我想確認一下，您是否仍預期能夠達到上限？或者，我們是否應該認為最終達到您全年營收預期中位數更為現實？

And then maybe just a quick question on your SG&A expense, which did step up quite a bit during the quarter. So just maybe hoping for a little more color on the drivers of this.

最後，我想問一個關於銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的問題，該費用在本季確實大幅增加。希望能詳細了解背後的原因。

Bonnie, we did not reiterate the top end of the range, but we reiterated the range. And that means 5% is still possible. Is it probable? I don't know, probably more 50-50 than it was before. So the range is valid. I wouldn't point today at the top end of the range.

邦妮，我們沒有重申範圍的上限，但我們重申了範圍。這意味著5%的可能性仍然存在。可能性大嗎？我不知道，可能比以前更接近五五開。所以這個範圍仍然有效。我今天不會指出範圍的上限。

On the SG&A line, we continue to invest in marketing, as we discussed in previous question. And we really saw an increase in our marketing spend of about 14% year-over-year. That's the main driver. It's offset by productivity on the SG&A line. But really, I would point to continued investment -- productive investment to drive market growth and push out our innovation, and that's the main driver of the SG&A increase that you've seen.

在銷售、一般及行政費用方面，正如我們在上一個問題中討論的那樣，我們繼續增加對行銷的投入。我們的行銷支出年增了約14%，這是主要驅動因素。雖然銷售、一般及行政費用的效率提升部分抵消了這一增長，但我認為，持續的投資——旨在推動市場增長和創新、促進產品研發的生產性投資——才是您所看到的銷售、一般及行政費用增長的主要驅動因素。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

My question is about mix, which flattened out this quarter after about 1.5 years of improvement. So clearly, you guys have been adamant that we're not seeing trade-down. But as you look at this, how much of that is trade-up is just harder to do now? You've obviously done -- you've been very successful of late with Powerwash and EZ-Squeeze and PODS, et cetera, et cetera. So is that becoming harder? And could you talk about mix expectations over perhaps the next 12 months?

我的問題是關於產品組合的，在經歷了大約一年半的成長後，本季產品組合趨於平穩。顯然，你們一直堅持我們沒有看到降級消費。但從你們的角度來看，有多少升級消費現在變得更困難了？你們最近在Powerwash、EZ-Squeeze和PODS等產品上取得了巨大的成功。那麼，這些產品是否正在變得越來越難銷售？能否談談未來12個月的產品組合預期？

Yes. Thanks, Olivia. I don't think the fundamental dynamic in terms of consumers trading into the P&G portfolio and trading up is changing. We've not observed it over the past 2 years, and we've not seen it in the most recent period.

是的，謝謝奧莉維亞。我認為消費者轉向購買寶潔產品組合併升級換代的基本動態並沒有改變。過去兩年我們沒有觀察到這種情況，最近一段時間也沒有。

There are some drivers and headwinds to mix. The biggest headwind I would mention is SK-II being down 30%. It's our highest value per -- or one of the highest value per unit items, and that obviously has a material impact on mix. Outside of that, we really don't see in any of the regions a significant down-trading within our portfolio. And as I mentioned in the U.S., we continue to see trade-up. Actually, the premium tiers on Baby Care doing better. I mentioned that in the context of Luvs.

有一些利好因素和不利因素需要考慮。最大的不利因素是SK-II銷量下降了30%。它是我們單價最高的產品之一，這顯然對產品組合產生了重大影響。除此之外，我們並沒有看到任何地區有明顯的降級消費。正如我在美國提到的，我們持續看到消費者升級換代。事實上，嬰兒護理的高端產品表現更好。我之前提到過Luvs的情況。

So we continue to think that the way that we innovate, providing value with innovation and showing the superiority of our premium items in the portfolio is resonating with consumers. And as long as we do that and as long as that value is real and tangible for consumers, I think we can hold on to that mix trend that we've seen consistently.

因此，我們仍然認為，我們透過創新創造價值，並展現產品組合中高端產品的卓越品質，這種創新方式能夠引起消費者的共鳴。只要我們繼續這樣做，只要這種價值對消費者來說是真實可感的，我認為我們就能維持目前這種持續成長的多元化趨勢。

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的克里斯凱裡。

Chris, are you still there? We can't hear you.

克里斯，你還在嗎？我們聽不到你的聲音。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Now we can.

現在我們可以了。

Okay. Just regarding the -- just one quick follow-up on the organic sales range for the full year. The slight change -- and I know the range is still in scope. Can you just frame maybe how much of that was the inventory dynamics in the U.S., maybe a little bit less pricing in Argentina, versus anything that has fundamentally developed through the quarter?

好的。關於全年有機銷售額範圍，我還有一個後續問題。我知道這個範圍仍在計算中，但略有變化。您能否解釋一下，其中有多少是由於美國庫存動態變化造成的，阿根廷價格略有下降，又有多少是由於本季發生的根本性變化造成的？

And just connected to that, if you could, you mentioned the elasticity dynamics in Baby and Feminine Care in the press release. Can you just comment on what you're seeing from a broader perspective? Specifically as you may need to contemplate some incremental pricing next year with the moves we're seeing on the cost side.

順便提一下，您在新聞稿中提到了嬰幼兒及女性護理用品的彈性動態。您能否從更廣泛的角度談談您觀察到的情況？特別是考慮到成本方面的變動，您明年可能需要考慮一些增量定價。

Thanks, Chris. I think you gave the answer on the organic sales line. It's exactly that. I think Argentina, as we said, the peso requires a little less pricing. That's an impact on organic sales. And the business is also smaller and responding maybe more aggressively to the pricing. So that is one building block.

謝謝，克里斯。我覺得你已經解答了有機產品銷售的問題。確實如此。正如我們之前所說，阿根廷比索的匯率決定了定價策略需要稍微低一點。這會對有機產品的銷售產生影響。而且，阿根廷的企業規模也比較小，對價格的反應可能更正面。所以，這是其中一個因素。

The other building block, I think, is -- the biggest one is really the U.S. inventory reduction. So as I think about the step-up that we need to see in order to be within that 4% to 5% range, we assume that, that inventory reduction is a onetimer, and that's what we expect in the guidance range.

我認為另一個關鍵因素——也是最重要的因素——是美國庫存的削減。因此，當我們考慮需要採取哪些措施才能將庫存削減控制在4%到5%的範圍內時，我們假設庫存削減是一次性的，而這正是我們在業績指引範圍內所預期的。

The elasticity in general is not changing. I think we've done -- and you see it in the results. I think the teams have done a very good job of making sure that we maintain a healthy value equation for our retail partners and our consumers with strong innovation, with pricing, only pricing where necessary, balancing pricing with strong productivity. So I do feel overall the business is responding very favorably even after we had to take the pricing that we took.

整體而言，彈性並沒有改變。我認為我們已經做到了——這一點從結果中也可以看出。我認為團隊做得非常出色，他們透過強有力的創新、合理的定價（只在必要時定價）、以及在保持高生產力的同時兼顧定價，確保我們為零售合作夥伴和消費者維持了健康的價值平衡。因此，我認為即便我們不得不採取目前的定價策略，整體業務也依然取得了非常正面的成效。

The volume is coming up as we would have expected both in the market and for P&G, and our biggest geographies were growing volume share consistently. So I do feel overall the elasticity is doing well.

正如我們預期的那樣，市場和寶潔的銷量都在成長，而且我們最大的幾個地區的銷售份額也持續成長。因此，我認為整體而言，彈性表現良好。

Baby is a very elastic category. And especially, as I mentioned, if -- we've not been able to consistently innovate across all tiers. And that actually is a confirmation of the model. So where we've not been able to push the innovation out and hold the full level of superiority as we took pricing, the consumer is responding. And we know the answer to that, which is push the innovation that we know how to do and communicate the superiority. And I'm confident that we'll recover the elasticity here. I don't see a broader issue. Actually, I see a lot of upside with the strength of the innovation pipeline going into next year.

嬰兒用品是一個彈性很大的品類。尤其是我剛才提到的，如果我們無法在所有層級持續創新，這實際上印證了我們模式的限制。也就是說，如果我們無法像之前那樣不斷推出創新產品並保持價格優勢，消費者就會做出反應。我們知道解決辦法，那就是繼續推動我們擅長的創新，並充分宣傳我們的優勢。我相信我們能夠恢復嬰兒用品的彈性。我不認為有什麼大問題。事實上，我認為明年強大的創新產品線會帶來很大的成長空間。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的卡勒姆·艾略特。

I wanted to come back, please, to Andrea's question on trade-down. I think, Andre, you had pointed to the stable private-label market share as a sign that there is no trade-down. And I want to push back on that a bit. I think we all know that the consumers under the most pressure at the moment are the low-income consumers, many of whom were probably already using private-label products in the first place.

我想回到安德烈關於「降級消費」的問題上來。安德烈，我認為你曾指出自有品牌市場份額的穩定性表明並不存在「降級消費」。我想對此提出一些不同意見。我們都知道，目前承受最大壓力的消費者是低收入消費者，而他們中的許多人可能原本就一直在使用自有品牌產品。

And so my question is, is it not possible that volume reductions and cutbacks amongst the low-income cohorts, sort of who were already using private label a year ago, are offsetting the trade-down impacts and sort of masking that trade-down in that flat market share number that you're talking about? And that could also explain why category growth has weakened so much.

所以我的問題是，低收入群體（他們一年前就開始使用自有品牌產品）的購買量減少和消費削減，是否有可能抵消了降級消費的影響，並掩蓋了您所說的市場份額持平所反映的降級消費現象？這或許也能解釋為何該品類的成長如此疲軟。

And I guess, just to add to the question. I'm surprised that the private-label market share is the metric that you're pointing to, to justify lack of trade-down. And just wondering, do you not track consumers longitudinally over time to measure trade-down and what consumers are doing? And is private-label market share really the best metric that we have to track this?

我想補充一點。我很驚訝你們竟然用自有品牌市佔率來證明消費者沒有降級消費。我想知道，你們難道沒有長期追蹤消費者的消費行為來衡量降級消費現象嗎？自有品牌市佔率真的是我們追蹤這現象的最佳指標嗎？

Fair questions, Callum. On the -- look, I'd be worried that the phenomena you're describing would be a driver if, a, the volume in the market wasn't growing, which it is, and if we weren't able to grow volume share but only grow value share. So I don't think that's the case. We're growing volume share. The market is growing in terms of volume. And one of the hypothesis I would have for you is that a lot of our consumers are actually not switching with private label heavily at this point in time.

卡勒姆，你問得好。關於你提到的現象，如果市場銷售沒有成長（但實際上銷量正在成長），而且我們只能提高銷售額而不能提高銷量份額，我才會擔心。所以我認為情況並非如此。我們的銷售份額正在成長，市場整體銷售也在成長。我還有一個假設，那就是目前很多消費者並沒有大量轉向自有品牌產品。

On the metrics that we use, look, private-label share is the most visible metric that we can point to, and it's also visible to you. So it's one that is convenient to use and objectively verifiable. So that's why we're using it. Internally, obviously, we use a lot more detail. We track exact consumption by tier, by product form, by retail channel. We check our share versus competitor share at that level of detail. So there's a lot more internal discussion on do we see trade-down within our portfolio, do we see trade-down across our portfolio with competitors to lower tiers? But private label is just the most visible and robust measure that we can point to that is visible to you guys.

在我們使用的指標中，自有品牌份額是最直觀的指標，你們也能看到。它使用方便，而且客觀可驗證，所以我們才選擇它。當然，在內部，我們會使用更詳細的數據。我們會以層級、產品形式和零售通路追蹤具體的消費情況，並逐級分析自身份額與競爭對手的份額。因此，我們內部會進行更多討論，例如：我們的產品組合中是否存在降級消費現象？我們的產品組合中是否有消費者轉向低層級產品的情況？但自有品牌份額是我們能找到的最直觀、最可靠的指標，你們也能看到。

The next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的菲利波·法洛尼。

I wanted to go back to the U.S. market. The 5% consumption level was pretty strong and we see it in tracked channel data. Are you expecting from a reported standpoint to get closer to that level in Q4 as you don't have the negative impacts from the inventory? Or what are the puts and takes in Q4?

我想重返美國市場。 5%的消費水準相當強勁，我們在追蹤的通路數據中也看到了這一點。從報告數據來看，您是否預期第四季會更接近這個水平，因為庫存的負面影響已經消除？或者說，您對第四季的銷售策略和預期目標是什麼？

And then just specifically on laundry in the U.S., your largest category. There was some recalls in Tide PODS recently. So maybe you could talk about any potential impact from that in Q4. And then longer term, you announced the innovation on Tide evo. So maybe some color on the rollout of that brand and the product and your expectations.

然後，我們具體談談美國洗衣市場，這是你們最大的業務板塊。最近汰漬洗衣凝珠出現了一些召回事件。您能否談談這會對第四季度業績產生哪些潛在影響？再說說長期來看，你們發布了汰漬evo的創新產品。能否詳細介紹一下該品牌和產品的推廣情況以及你們的預期？

Yes. Filippo, you're right. We hope U.S. market growth continues in the high 4s, low 5s. And I think the trend line is pointing in that direction. And unless we see any major inventory reduction, I would expect us to continue to trend in that same direction. We are driving market growth in most of our categories in the U.S., and that should mathematically then result in stable to increasing shares both on the volume and value side. And that's certainly the objective the team has on all the U.S. businesses.

是的，菲利波，你說得對。我們希望美國市場的成長能繼續維持在4%到5%之間。我認為目前的趨勢也正朝著這個方向發展。除非庫存大幅下降，否則我預計我們將繼續保持這一成長勢頭。我們在美國的大部分品類都實現了市場成長，從數學角度來看，這最終應該會帶來銷售和銷售額兩方面的穩定甚至成長。這當然也是團隊對所有美國業務的目標。

The laundry recall, it was a very limited recall on a packaging defect on one SKU on Tide PODS. Out of an abundance of caution, the team decided to recall the product. It's no impact or very limited impact actually on the quarter or the fiscal year. And again, that product itself is safe, so no issue with the product. It was a small packaging defect, but in any case, the team decided to go ahead and recall.

這次洗衣產品召回事件，實際上是針對汰漬洗衣凝珠（Tide PODS）某一款產品包裝缺陷的非常有限的召回。出於謹慎考慮，團隊決定召回該產品。實際上，此次召回對本季或本財年幾乎沒有影響。再次強調，該產品本身是安全的，不存在任何問題。雖然只是包裝上的小缺陷，但團隊還是決定召回。

We're very excited about the evo innovation. The fiber-spinning innovation has been one of our core developments, so seeing it in market is exciting. But it's very early. So we run these test markets to validate product-market fit, validate the commercial execution, validate everything from packaging color to packaging sizes. And it will take us a few months before we have anything of substance. But yes, the innovation is very exciting, but it will take time before it has an impact on overall laundry growth in the U.S.

我們對evo創新感到非常興奮。纖維紡絲技術一直是我們的核心研發項目之一，所以看到它推向市場令人興奮。但目前還處於早期階段。因此，我們進行這些市場測試，以驗證產品與市場的契合度，驗證商業執行情況，並驗證從包裝顏色到包裝尺寸等各個方面。我們需要幾個月的時間才能達到實質成果。沒錯，這項創新令人振奮，但它需要時間才能對美國整體洗衣市場的成長產生影響。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Two follow-ups. First, can you talk a little bit more about Europe? Very strong market and your results have been extremely strong. So perhaps what's driving the strength of the market, your market share gains? And is this something that you think can flow through into 2025?

有兩個後續問題。首先，能否再詳細談談歐洲市場？歐洲市場非常強勁，而您的業績也十分亮眼。那麼，是什麼因素推動了歐洲市場的強勁成長，以及您市場佔有率的持續提升？您認為這種勢頭能否延續到2025年？

And then second, kind of coming back on China. There's been significant channel shifts that we're noticing, certainly in the beauty area. It's 50% to 60% online with TikTok being half of that. So kind of, number one, wondering to what extent you're adapting to that and are prepared to adapt to that shift? And then second, for the non-Beauty business, do you also see the online business moving to TikTok as well? And maybe talk about your share online and off-line in those categories, the main categories in China.

其次，回到中國市場。我們注意到頻道發生了顯著變化，尤其是在美妝領域。目前線上通路佔比高達50%到60%，其中TikTok佔了一半。所以，首先，我想知道你們在多大程度上適應了這種變化，以及你們是否已經做好了應對的準備？其次，對於非美妝業務，你們是否也認為線上業務會轉移到TikTok？能否談談你們在中國主要類別中線上和線下的市佔率？

Thanks, Robert. Indeed, Europe results have been outstanding. Aggregate Europe, between Europe Focus Markets and Europe Enterprise Markets, we now have, I think, 12 consecutive quarters of 5% or higher growth, which is outstanding.

謝謝羅伯特。的確，歐洲的業績非常出色。歐洲整體市場，包括歐洲重點市場和歐洲企業市場，已經連續12個季度實現了5%或更高的成長，這非常了不起。

I think the strength of the business, maybe let me focus on the Focus Markets here for a minute. The strength of the business has been consistent because of the execution of the team. Strong innovation pushed out over an extended period of time as we were taking pricing. Very strong productivity work in the region across every part of the P&L to limit the amount of pricing we needed to take. But brilliant execution of the pricing that was taken, respecting key price points, respecting retailers' and consumer constraints. And I think that's playing out.

我認為業務實力強勁，或許我可以先重點談談重點市場。業務實力持續強勁，得益於團隊的優異執行。在定價過程中，我們持續不斷推出創新產品。整個區域在損益表的各個環節都進行了高效的生產力提升，從而減少了定價調整的次數。最終，我們出色地執行了定價策略，既關注了關鍵價格點，又充分考慮了零售商和消費者的限制。我認為這些努力正在發揮成效。

We've also invested very strongly, probably more than ever, in terms of marketing support of those innovations in the Focus Markets. And we are building the same digital capability in terms of consumer targeting to become more effective and efficient with our spend in Europe that we've used in the U.S. for an extended period of time. So all of those would be contributors to growth.

我們在重點市場對這些創新產品的營銷支援方面也投入了巨資，可能比以往任何時候都多。同時，我們正在建立與美國長期使用的相同的數位化消費者定位能力，以期在歐洲更有效地利用我們的支出。所有這些舉措都將有助於成長。

On the Enterprise Markets side, I would caution it's not without headwinds. Russia continues to be a headwind that we called out with a reduced portfolio and very little support of the business. We have work to do in Turkey as Turkey recovers from the heavy inflation-based pricing and some of the Middle East outflow of tensions. So it's not without headwinds, but I think the underlying performance of the European business continues to be strong and it's built the right way.

就企業市場業務而言，我要提醒大家，它並非一帆風順。俄羅斯市場仍然是一個不利因素，我們之前已經指出，我們縮減了俄羅斯市場的投資組合，並且幾乎沒有獲得任何業務支持。土耳其市場也面臨一些挑戰，我們需要努力從高通膨帶來的物價上漲以及中東地區緊張局勢的影響中恢復過來。因此，企業市場並非一帆風順，但我認為歐洲業務的基本面依然強勁，而且其發展方向是正確的。

You're correct on the channel shifting in China. Obviously, Douyin is a significant driver, most heavily probably in Beauty. We've been talking about this before. What we want to make sure is we keep a healthy balance between building brand equity versus simply low-funnel transactional execution via KOLs that only make sales via deep discounting but don't do anything for the brand equity or for our superiority messaging. That's what we're doing.

您說的中國通路轉型是正確的。抖音顯然是一個重要的驅動因素，尤其是在美妝領域。我們之前也討論過這個問題。我們希望確保在品牌建立和僅僅透過KOL進行低漏斗交易之間保持健康的平衡。 KOL的銷售策略雖然能帶來銷量，但對品牌建立和我們傳遞的卓越訊息卻毫無幫助。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

We're building brand houses on Douyin. We're making sure that we have a good balance between transactional communication and equity communication. We have innovation that is launching on Douyin first. Head & Shoulders Premium would be a good example of most recent innovations. So we're playing in the channel, but we're playing with a sense of value creation and balance between top line growth and profitability.

我們正在抖音上打造品牌之家。我們致力於在交易溝通和品牌權益溝通之間取得良好的平衡。我們的創新產品會率先在抖音上發布。海飛絲高端洗髮精就是我們近期創新產品的一個很好的例子。因此，雖然我們身處通路之中，但我們更注重價值創造，力求在營收成長和獲利能力之間取得平衡。

The channel is relevant for other parts of the business as well, and the same principles apply. We are careful to ensure that we are balanced across top line and bottom line, and we protect and grow underlying brand equity.

該通路對公司其他業務部門也至關重要，同樣的原則也適用。我們謹慎地確保營收和利潤的平衡，並致力於保護和提升品牌價值。

The next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

Maybe one quick housekeeping. Can you maybe just help us understand how much of the stronger earnings guidance was related to the improvement in FX? Andre, I know the FX guidance became more favorable. But I think you also mentioned you're reducing your exposure due to the divestiture in Argentina. So I just want to make sure I understand the moving pieces as it relates to the FX impact on the earnings range.

或許還有一點要說明。您能否幫我們理解一下，獲利預期上調有多少是因為匯率改善所致？安德烈，我知道匯率預期有所改善。但你也提到過，由於剝離了阿根廷的業務，你們正在降低風險敞口。所以我想確認一下，匯率變動對獲利預期的影響究竟是怎麼樣的。

And then just a quick follow-up on SK-II in China. I think month-to-month improvement was mentioned. So just any color you can provide on the exit rate relative to the 30% decline in the quarter, I think, would be pretty helpful.

然後我想快速跟進SK-II在中國的表現。我記得之前提到過環比有所改善。所以，如果您能提供一些關於退出率相對於本季30%跌幅的情況，我覺得會很有幫助。

Okay. Peter, yes, the foreign exchange help is an interesting one because the $400 million reduction, as we said, was all related to Argentina. And we had assumed in the previous guidance that whatever exposure is generated in Argentina will have to be offset with pricing within the fiscal year in Argentina. So as the assumption changes and the business size reduces, the net outcome to the P&L is very limited.

好的。彼得，是的，外匯方面的幫助確實很有意思，因為正如我們所說，這4億美元的減少全部都與阿根廷有關。我們先前的業績指引假設，在阿根廷產生的任何風險敞口都必須在阿根廷本財年內透過定價來抵銷。因此，隨著假設的改變和業務規模的縮小，對損益表的淨影響非常有限。

So yes, we saw a technical reduction because of the improving peso and the lower size of -- smaller size of the business. The net effect to the P&L will be very limited because of the underlying assumption we made from the very beginning, that we would offset that impact of FX via pricing in the market.

是的，由於比索走強和業務規模縮小，我們看到技術性虧損減少。但由於我們從一開始就假設可以透過市場定價來抵銷匯率波動的影響，因此對損益表的淨影響將非常有限。

SK-II in China is, I think, bottoming out in terms of the shipment pattern. As we said, we are about 30% down in the quarter. It's very encouraging to see some positive signs in terms of consumer sentiment as the team continues to innovate, the team drives very strong communication on the core benefit base of the SK-II proposition, focusing on PITERA as a core ingredient and reason to believe. We are leveraging -- continue to leveraging the core consumer in China, very loyal to the brand, to amplify that messaging, and it's starting to resonate. So we see positive signs.

我認為SK-II在中國的出貨量已經觸底。正如我們之前所說，本季出貨量下降了約30%。令人鼓舞的是，隨著團隊不斷創新，消費者信心出現了一些正面跡象。團隊持續強化SK-II核心功效的宣傳，重點在於PITERA®作為核心成分，這也是消費者信賴SK-II的理由。我們正在——並將繼續——利用中國核心消費者群體，他們對SK-II品牌非常忠誠，來擴大宣傳力度，而這些宣傳也開始產生效果。因此，我們看到了積極的跡象。

It will take time until that translates into shipments though. I think retailers are sitting on a little bit of stock. And I think they will be hesitant to order until they see good signs of consumption increases. So I would caution, I don't expect this to be a fast recovery. This will take some time.

不過，這還需要一段時間才能轉換為實際出貨量。我認為零售商目前囤積了一些庫存。而且，在看到消費成長的明顯跡象之前，他們應該不會輕易下單。所以我要提醒大家，我不認為市場會快速復甦。這需要一些時間。

Maybe last point on SK-II. Outside of China, the business is doing very well. We're growing double digits in Japan. So I think the fundamental proposition is healthy, we just have to sort through this period in China. And again worth pointing, I think in the right direction, but it will take time.

關於SK-II，最後一點要說的是，在中國以外的市場，我們的業務發展非常順利。在日本，我們的成長率達到了兩位數。所以我認為，SK-II的基本面是健康的，我們只需要度過在中國的這段時期。再次強調，我認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進，但這需要時間。

The next question comes from Nick Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克莫迪。

Just a few kind of housekeeping items. Andre, I just wanted to confirm that the destocking in the U.S. was isolated to the Consumer Health business.

只是一些家政用品。安德烈，我只是想確認一下，美國的去庫存行動是否僅限於消費者健康業務。

And then the other 2 questions I had, the Tide evo, the technology that you've developed, would that be applicable to other brands and other cleaning solutions within the P&G portfolio?

另外，我還有兩個問題，關於 Tide evo，你們開發的這項技術，是否適用於寶潔產品組合中的其他品牌和其他清潔解決方案？

And then just the final thing is, I think there's a lot of -- the theme I'm hearing just broadly from speaking to investors around this call is the delta between obviously how P&G is performing and how everyone else is performing. And I think the competition that you're dealing with, I think, generally are struggling for volume growth.

最後一點，我認為——我從這次電話會議中與投資者的交流中普遍聽到的——是寶潔的業績與其他公司業績之間的巨大差距。我認為，寶潔的競爭對手普遍都在努力實現銷售成長。

So as you think about guidance, how much have you contemplated a step-up in competitive spend, right? I understand the fact that you guys have the momentum and you're gaining share and the innovation is working. But I just wanted to get an understanding of kind of how measured your guidance is in relation to potential competitive response.

所以，在製定業績指引時，您是否考慮過增加競爭性支出？我知道你們目前發展動能良好，市佔率不斷成長，創新也卓有成效。但我只是想了解一下，你們的業績指引在多大程度上考慮到了潛在的競爭對手反應。

All right. Thanks for the question, Nick. Destocking in the U.S. was broadly Personal Health Care-related. That was the biggest effect. Again, an okay season, but significantly weaker than last year and generally an industry-wide recovery of the supply chain. So if you're a retailer, you no longer see the need to hold safety stock. You're convinced that when the season restarts and you need product, you can order and you get it.

好的。謝謝你的提問，尼克。美國的去庫存主要集中在個人健康護理領域。這是影響最大的方面。總的來說，這個銷售季節還算可以，但比去年明顯疲軟，供應鏈也基本恢復正常。所以，如果你是零售商，你不再覺得有必要持有安全庫存。你相信，當銷售季重新開始時，如果需要產品，你可以隨時訂購並拿到貨。

There was some of that also in the Tampax business, in the tampon business, as we have stabilized the supply chain there, similar dynamic. And there was a little bit of destocking in Hair Care because we had upstocking in the base. But the majority of it, to keep it simple, is Health Care.

Tampax衛生棉條業務也出現了類似的情況，因為我們穩定了那裡的供應鏈，所以情況類似。護髮產品方面也出現了一些庫存減少，因為我們補充了基礎庫存。但簡單來說，大部分業務都集中在醫療保健領域。

Indeed, the evo technology, so the fiber-spinning technology, is a technology that can be applied in broader context. We've applied it to facial cleaning in Beauty, and there are many other applications. This is one of our platform technologies. If you think about it, the ability to spin chemistry into a fiber and avoid water as a carrying agent has so many efficiencies and advantages in the chemistry that we can put together and obviously in the logistics and cost side that, yes, we would want to apply it, but step by step. We got to make sure the evo's proposition works well, and that's why we're in test market, and we talked about this earlier.

事實上，evo技術，也就是纖維紡絲技術，是一種應用範圍更廣的技術。我們已將其應用於美容領域的潔面產品，還有許多其他應用。這是我們的平台技術之一。仔細想想，將化學物質紡成纖維，無需水作為載體，這在化學方面具有許多效率優勢，而且在物流和成本方面也優勢顯著。因此，我們當然希望推廣這項技術，但要循序漸進。我們必須確保evo技術的可行性，這也是我們進行市場測試的原因，我們之前也討論過這一點。

Competitive spending, if done the right way, would be a good thing. If we see competitors innovate, if we can see competitors communicate in market-constructive ways, drive incremental spend in marketing dollars, that's a good thing. So we hope to see that.

如果運用得當，競爭性支出是件好事。如果我們看到競爭對手進行創新，如果我們看到競爭對手以對市場有利的方式進行溝通，並推動行銷支出增加，那都是好事。所以我們希望看到這種情況。

On the promotion side, we don't really see a dynamic that would point to anyone escalating promotion. We see stable depth of promotion in Europe, a little bit of increase in frequency. In the U.S., we are operating at about 85% business sold on deal, which -- 85% indexed versus pre-COVID level, sorry. That's about 29% of business volumes sold on deal. And we see competitors at similar ranges, so -- and it's stable over a period of time.

在促銷方面，我們並沒有看到任何跡象顯示有人會加強促銷。歐洲的促銷力道保持穩定，頻率略有增加。在美國，我們約有 85% 的業務是透過促銷活動完成的——抱歉，這是相對於新冠疫情前水準的調整後數據。這意味著促銷活動約占我們總銷售額的 29%。我們看到競爭對手的情況也類似，而且這一比例在一段時間內保持穩定。

So again, if we see market-constructive spend, great. Nobody seems to have an interest in heavy promotion at this point in time.

所以，如果我們看到有利於市場的支出，那就太好了。目前看來，似乎沒有人對大手筆的促銷活動感興趣。

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

I guess as we get towards the end of the call, putting a lot of it together, lots of information on volume, on organic revenue, also why it should get better sequentially. I think putting that in the context of what your earnings have grown year-to-date versus the guidance of 10% to 11% implying almost flat 4Q, I think that suggests a very significant step-up in reinvestment or maybe in something else. So can you maybe just try to reconcile each of those pieces?

我想，隨著電話會議接近尾聲，我們把很多資訊整合起來，包括銷售、有機收入以及季增的原因。我認為，結合貴公司今年迄今的獲利成長情況（此前預期為10%至11%，這意味著第四季度幾乎持平），這表明貴公司可能大幅增加了再投資，或投入了其他資金。您能否試著解釋一下這些資訊之間的關聯？

Yes. Kaumil, the main driver here is the profile of some of the tailwinds and headwinds. I don't expect a major step-up in spend quarter-over-quarter. I think we will sustain good investment levels. And again, as I said, we will be ROI-driven. So it's up to the teams. But I don't expect a step up as the main explanation of why Q4 looks different in terms of EPS growth.

是的。 Kaumil，目前的主要驅動因素是一些順風和逆風的格局。我預計季度環比支出不會大幅增長。我認為我們將保持良好的投資水準。而且，正如我之前所說，我們將以投資回報率為導向。所以這取決於各個團隊。但我並不認為支出成長是第四季每股收益成長差異的主要原因。

The main driver is a lot of the commodity help has been booked in the front half of the year. And if anything, there's a little commodity hurt coming in Q4. As we talked, oil potentially as reflected in diesel rates, and maybe some of the pulp impact will hit this fiscal year.

主要原因是上半年已確認了大部分大宗商品價格上漲帶來的利多。如果有什麼影響的話，那就是第四季可能會受到大宗商品價格上漲的輕微衝擊。正如我們之前討論的，油價上漲可能會反映在柴油價格上，而紙漿價格上漲的影響也可能波及本財年。

And then the foreign exchange rate. So forget about Argentina, I think we've discussed that. But the balance of the foreign exchange rate will mostly hit in the second half, and that's heavily in quarter 4.

然後是匯率。所以先別管阿根廷了，我想我們已經討論過了。但匯率的平衡問題主要會在下半年出現，尤其是在第四季。

And then the last element is just base period. So Q4 last year was very strong because of a different profile. This profile looks a little bit different for the reasons I explained. But don't expect a material change in spend behavior. It's really more of the macro drivers that impact the profile.

最後一個因素是基期。去年第四季表現非常強勁，是因為當時的經濟結構與去年不同。由於我之前解釋的原因，今年的經濟結構略有不同。但預計消費行為不會發生實質變化。真正影響經濟結構的是宏觀因素。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Mark Astrachan。

One follow-up on SK-II. Last quarter, you talked about your research suggesting that brand sentiment was improving. I didn't hear that. I guess, is that still the case? Are you still doing more work on what's going on, I guess, specific to what's happening in China?

關於SK-II，還有一個後續問題。上個季度，您提到您的研究顯示品牌好感度正在提升。我當時並沒有聽到這個消息。我想問一下，現在情況是否仍然如此？您是否仍在繼續研究，特別是針對中國市場的情況？

And then more broadly, reinvestment has just been considerable this year, obviously, because gross margin has expanded or at least some part against gross margins have expanded so much and allows you to do that. As you think about the setup from here, commodities unknown, but probably not as big of a tailwind, net-net, and pricing clearly not as big of a tailwind as it's been.

更廣泛地說，今年的再投資規模相當可觀，這顯然是因為毛利率大幅成長，或至少部分成長得益於毛利率的顯著提升。展望未來，大宗商品價格走勢尚不明朗，但整體而言，可能不會像之前那樣成為強勁的利多因素，而價格因素也明顯不如以往那樣具有推動作用。

So as you go into next year and you presumably have a little less gross margin to play with, how do you think about what the reinvestment levels look like? And then what is the contribution? I mean, I know it's a squishy question. But how much contribution do you think you've had from 300-plus basis points of reinvestment back in the business to drive share volume, value, et cetera?

所以，展望明年，你們的毛利率可能會略有下降，你們是如何考慮再投資水準的？再投資的貢獻又是多少？我知道這個問題比較模糊。但是，你們認為將超過300個基點的利潤再投資到業務中，對提升銷售、價值等方面產生了多大的貢獻？

Yes. Mark, on SK-II, I think the brand sentiment has been sequentially improving. The work the team is doing on innovation, on communication and credentialing, I think, is resonating with the consumer. And as the overall sentiment towards Japanese brands is improving, we are also getting a bit more bold in the breadth of the communication, the reach and frequency that we use. So I think all of that is pointing in the right direction.

是的。馬克，關於SK-II，我認為品牌好感度一直在穩步提升。團隊在創新、溝通和認證方面所做的工作，我認為正在引起消費者的共鳴。隨著消費者對日本品牌的整體好感度提升，我們也開始在溝通的廣度、覆蓋範圍和頻率上更加大膽。所以我認為所有這些都在朝著正確的方向發展。

As I mentioned, I think the order behavior might lag. So we might see improvement in consumption before we see improvement in shipment. So that's why I was cautioning that, while we see consumer sentiment improving, that first has to translate in increased consumption, and that then has to translate into increased orders and shipments, and that will take some time. So the team is doing the right work, and I'm glad they're actually doing it in a very balanced way to ensure that we're rebuilding this brand for the long term.

正如我之前提到的，我認為訂單行為可能會落後。因此，我們可能會先看到消費量的改善，然後才會看到出貨量的改善。所以我才提醒大家，雖然我們看到消費者信心有所提升，但這首先必須轉化為消費量的增長，然後才能轉化為訂單量和出貨量的增長，而這需要一些時間。所以團隊的工作方向是正確的，我很高興他們以非常平衡的方式開展工作，以確保我們能夠長期重建這個品牌。

In terms of spending, I think this will really be done business by business, geography by geography, so to give you an answer. The only thing I'd point to is we are planning on significant productivity to continue in the marketing spend area. So that in and of itself would be somewhere between $400 million and $500 million of productivity in the space. That is always up for discussion. Do you reinvest or do you flow it through? And it will really depend on the level of innovation we are able to drive. More innovation means more spend and hopefully better return.

就支出而言，我認為這真的要根據各個業務部門和地區的具體情況來決定，所以很難給出確切的答案。我唯一想指出的是，我們計劃在行銷支出領域持續保持顯著的效率提升。僅此一項，我們就能在行銷領域實現4億至5億美元的效率提升。當然，這始終是一個可以討論的話題。是進行再投資還是繼續投入？這實際上取決於我們能夠推動的創新水平。更多的創新意味著更多的支出，並有望帶來更好的回報。

And I'll leave it at that in terms of the ROI. I think I've answered the question before. It's there in the aggregate discipline of the categories. But I wouldn't want to go into more detail. I think it's really down to the category country combinations at which we measure it and at which those decisions are made.

關於投資報酬率，我就說到這裡吧。我想我之前已經回答過這個問題了。它存在於各個類別的總體分析中。但我不想再深入探討細節。我認為這實際上取決於我們衡量投資回報率以及做出相關決策所依據的類別和國家組合。

Today's final question comes from Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research.

今天的最後一個問題來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Brett Cooper。

I wanted to follow-on to Nik's question. Over the last 2 quarters, some of your peers or competitors have talked about elevating their rate of growth. And you touched on this a bit before, but I was hoping you could talk about the opportunity or capacity for category growth rates to elevate further if more players are deploying a strategy than you execute. And how do we see that come through with respect to volume, price, or mix? And then just finally, if there's anything that you need to do with respect to elevating innovation or do anything in light of what may be a more competitive environment on that front.

我想接著問Nik的問題。過去兩個季度，你們的一些同業或競爭對手都在談論如何提升成長率。您之前也稍微提及過這一點，但我希望您能談談，如果更多企業採用類似的策略，而你們的執行力度不足，那麼品類增長率是否還有機會或潛力進一步提升？這種提升會如何影響銷售、價格或產品組合？最後，鑑於當前競爭環境可能更加激烈，你們在提升創新能力方面是否需要採取任何措施？

Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, I think if more of our competitors adopt a market-constructive strategy and innovate and spend in that way, that's good for everyone. And if you look at the category development globally, there's still so much opportunity to grow, even in the most developed markets, to grow category penetration in places like fabric enhancers. So that is a big opportunity in many of the markets where we play. The category development index is index 30 or maybe slightly higher. So there's plenty of opportunity to be market-constructive. So that's a good thing.

是的，謝謝你的提問。你看，我認為如果我們的競爭對手更多地採取市場建設性策略，並以這種方式進行創新和投入，這對所有人都有好處。如果你放眼全球品類發展，即使在最發達的市場，也仍然有很大的成長空間，例如在織物增強劑等領域，可以提高品類滲透率。因此，在我們涉足的許多市場，這都是一個巨大的機會。品類發展指數為30，甚至可能略高一些。所以，我們有很多機會可以採取市場建設性策略。這是一件好事。

We are constantly looking at our superiority and our innovation that's inherent in the strategy of Irresistible Superiority. So we've talked about resetting the bar. We've done that with exactly that in mind: What will it take for us to continue to be market-constructive, win consumers for the next 5 years, instead of just looking back at the success we had over the past 5 years. So that is part of the growth model and part of how the organization operates.

我們始終專注於自身優勢和創新能力，這正是「無可匹敵的卓越」策略的核心所在。因此，我們一直在討論重新設定標準。我們這樣做正是出於這樣的考量：為了在未來五年繼續保持市場競爭力，贏得消費者，我們需要做些什麼，而不是只回顧過去五年的成功。這既是我們成長模式的一部分，也是我們組織運作方式的一部分。

All right. Thank you for your time today. If you have additional questions, John, myself, will be available during the day. Thank you for your time and thank you for your interest.

好的。感謝您今天抽出時間。如果您還有其他問題，我和約翰今天都會在場。感謝您的時間和關注。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以斷開連接了，祝您度過美好的一天。