寶潔 (PG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter-End Conference Call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends, and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

這次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉交給寶潔公司財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today is John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家，早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是投資人關係資深副總裁 John Chevalier。

Execution of our integrated strategy drove solid sales and market share results and another quarter of strong earnings and cash results. The strong results we've delivered in the first 3 quarters of fiscal '24 enable us to raise our outlook for core earnings per share and keep us on track to deliver within our fiscal year guidance ranges for organic sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners.

我們綜合策略的執行推動了穩健的銷售和市場份額業績，以及另一個季度的強勁盈利和現金業績。我們在 24 財年前 3 季取得的強勁業績使我們能夠提高每股核心收益的預期，並使我們能夠在有機銷售成長、現金生產力和現金回報的財年指導範圍內實現目標給股東。

Specifically on the numbers. Organic sales grew 3%. Volume was in line with prior year, showing sequential progress. Pricing contributed 3 points to sales growth as we continue to annualize price increases taken last fiscal year. Mix was neutral to organic sales growth, and growth across categories continues to be broad-based with 8 of 10 product categories holding or growing organic sales in this quarter.

具體到數字上。有機銷售額成長 3%。成交量與去年持平，顯示出季成長。由於我們繼續按年計算上一財年的價格上漲，定價對銷售成長貢獻了 3 個百分點。組合對有機銷售成長呈中性，各類別的成長持續基礎廣泛，本季 10 個產品類別中有 8 個保持或成長有機銷售。

Grooming organic sales grew double digits; Home Care and Hair Care up high singles; Oral Care grew mid-single digits; Fabric Care, Family Care, Feminine Care and Personal Health Care were up low singles; Skin and Personal Care and Baby Care organic sales were lower versus prior year.

美容有機銷售額成長兩位數；家庭護理和頭髮護理單打上升；口腔護理業務實現中位數成長；織物護理、家庭護理、女性護理和個人保健單品漲幅較低；皮膚和個人護理品以及嬰兒護理品的有機銷售額低於上年。

Growth was also broad-based across geographies. North America, Europe and Asia Pacific Focus Markets and Latin America and Europe Enterprise Markets are each growing organic sales. Global aggregate value share was up versus prior year with 29 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share. Focus Markets grew organic sales 2% for the quarter and Enterprise Markets grew 4%.

各地區的成長也具有廣泛基礎。北美、歐洲和亞太重點市場以及拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場的有機銷售額均在成長。全球總價值份額較去年有所上升，前 50 個類別國家組合中有 29 個持有或不斷增長份額。 Focus Markets 本季有機銷售額成長 2%，Enterprise Markets 成長 4%。

Organic sales in North America grew 3% with 3 points of volume growth. Over the last 4 quarters, volume growth in North America has been plus 2%, plus 3%, plus 4% and now plus 3%. These results include over 1 point of impact from retail inventory reductions primarily in Personal Health Care. Consumer demand for P&G brands remains very strong in the U.S. with all outlet consumption value growth of 5%. All outlet value share was up 10 basis points versus prior year. U.S. volume share was up 40 basis points, reflecting continued strong volume growth ahead of the underlying market. The gap between consumer offtake of 5%, compared to our U.S. sales growth of 3%, reflects the aforementioned trade inventory reductions in the quarter.

北美地區的有機銷售額成長 3%，銷量成長 3 個百分點。過去 4 個季度，北美地區的銷售成長分別為 2%、3%、4%，現在為 3%。這些結果包括主要在個人醫療保健領域的零售庫存減少超過 1 個百分點的影響。美國消費者對寶潔品牌的需求依然強勁，所有直營店消費成長了 5%。所有門市價值份額比上年增長了 10 個基點。美國成交量份額上升 40 個基點，反映出成交量持續強勁成長，領先基礎市場。與美國 3% 的銷售成長相比，消費者購買量之間存在 5% 的差距，這反映了上述本季貿易庫存的減少。

Europe Focus Markets were up 7% with 4 points of volume growth. Value share in Europe Focus Markets was up 100 basis points over the past 3 months.

歐洲焦點市場上漲 7%，成交量增加 4 個百分點。過去 3 個月，歐洲焦點市場的價值份額上升了 100 個基點。

Latin America organic sales were up 17%. Argentina is a significant contributor to this result given the pricing taken to offset the more than 400% devaluation of the Argentine peso since the start of the year. Mexico and Brazil are annualizing high base periods with organic sales growth in the 20s and 30s, and we expect to normalize back to pre-COVID levels in the mid- to high single digits.

拉丁美洲有機銷售額成長 17%。考慮到阿根廷比索自年初以來貶值超過 400% 所採取的定價措施，阿根廷是這項結果的重要貢獻者。墨西哥和巴西正以年化高基期計算，有機銷售成長在 20 多歲和 30 多歲，我們預計將恢復到新冠疫情前的中高個位數水準。

As we noted last quarter, there are some specific issues affecting other markets. Those challenges continue to impact results in the quarter. Greater China organic sales were down 10% versus prior year, progress versus the December quarter, but still impacted by weak underlying market conditions and headwinds for SK-II and other Japanese brands in the market. SK-II sales in Greater China were down around 30% for the quarter. We have seen some month-to-month improvement in overall Greater China sales trends, though we expect it will be another quarter or 2 until we return to growth.

正如我們上季所指出的，存在一些影響其他市場的具體問題。這些挑戰持續影響本季的業績。大中華區有機銷售額較上年同期下降 10%，較 12 月季度有所進步，但仍受到基礎市場狀況疲軟以及 SK-II 和市場上其他日本品牌不利因素的影響。本季 SK-II 大中華區銷售額下降約 30%。我們看到大中華區整體銷售趨勢逐月改善，但我們預計還需要一兩個季度才能恢復成長。

Volume trends in some of the European enterprise and Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia, have remained soft since the start of the heightened tensions in the Middle East. Also shipments in Russia continued to decline double digits given our reduced footprint and curtailed investments with consumers and retailers.

自中東緊張局勢加劇以來，一些歐洲企業以及埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其、印尼和馬來西亞等亞太、中東、非洲國家的成交量趨勢一直保持疲軟。此外，由於我們的足跡減少以及對消費者和零售商的投資減少，俄羅斯的出貨量持續下降兩位數。

Combined, the headwinds from Greater China and Asia, Middle East, Africa markets were a 150 basis point impact on total company sales for the quarter. We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods.

綜合起來，來自大中華區以及亞洲、中東、非洲市場的不利因素對該季度公司總銷售額產生了 150 個基點的影響。我們預期這些不利因素在未來一段時間內將會減弱或呈現年化趨勢。

Moving to the bottom line. Core earnings per share were $1.52, up 11% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 18%. Core gross margin increased 310 basis points and operating margin increased 90 basis points. Strong productivity improvement of 320 basis points enabled continued strong investment in superior products, packaging and consumer communication to drive market growth. Currency-neutral core operating margin increased 220 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 87%.

移動到底線。每股核心收益為 1.52 美元，比上年增長 11%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長了 18%。核心毛利率成長 310 個基點，營業利益率成長 90 個基點。生產力大幅提高 320 個基點，使得對優質產品、包裝和消費者溝通的持續強勁投資得以推動市場成長。貨幣中性的核心營業利益率增加了 220 個基點。調整後自由現金流生產力為 87%。

We returned $3.3 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.3 billion in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchase. Over 3 quarters, more than $10 billion returned to shareowners in dividends and repurchases. Last week, we announced a 7% increase in our dividend, again, reinforcing our commitment to return cash to shareowners. This is the 68th consecutive annual dividend increase and the 134th consecutive year P&G has paid a dividend.

我們向股東返還了 33 億美元的現金、約 23 億美元的股利和 10 億美元的股票回購。三個季度以來，超過 100 億美元透過股息和回購方式返還給股東。上週，我們再次宣布將股利增加 7%，強化了我們向股東返還現金的承諾。這是連續第 68 年增加股息，也是寶潔公司連續第 134 年支付股息。

In summary, against what continues to be a challenging and volatile operating environment, strong overall results enabling us to increase our earnings projections for the year and to maintain our guidance ranges for organic sales and cash generation, all while sustaining strong investment in superiority to build category consumption and to restore business growth in China and in the Middle East.

總而言之，在仍然充滿挑戰和動蕩的經營環境中，強勁的整體業績使我們能夠提高今年的盈利預測，並維持有機銷售和現金生成的指導範圍，同時保持對優勢的大力投資，以建立類別消費並恢復中國和中東的業務成長。

Our teams continue to operate with excellence, executing the integrated strategy that has enabled strong results over the past 5 years, and that is the foundation for balanced growth and value creation. A portfolio of daily-use products, many providing cleaning, health and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice. Ongoing commitment to and investment in Irresistible Superiority across the 5 vectors of product: Package, brand communication, retail execution and value for each price tier where we compete.

我們的團隊繼續卓越運營，執行綜合策略，在過去 5 年中取得了強勁的業績，這是平衡成長和價值創造的基礎。日常使用產品組合，其中許多產品提供清潔、健康和衛生益處，而性能在品牌選擇中起著重要作用。持續致力於並投資於五個產品領域的不可抗拒的優勢：包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行以及我們競爭的每個價格層的價值。

We are again raising the bar on our superiority standards to reflect the dynamic nature of this strategy. Productivity improvements in all areas of our operations to fund investments in superiority offset cost and currency challenges, expand margins and deliver strong cash generation. An approach of constructive disruption and willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future. Finally, an organization that is empowered, agile and accountable.

我們再次提高了我們的優勢標準，以反映此策略的動態性質。我們所有業務領域的生產力提高，為優勢投資提供資金，抵消成本和貨幣挑戰，擴大利潤並實現強勁的現金產生。一種建設性顛覆的方法以及改變、適應和創造新趨勢和技術的意願，這將塑造我們行業的未來。最後，一個被授權、敏捷且負責任的組織。

We continue to improve the execution of the integrated strategy with 4 focus areas: Strong progress on Supply Chain 3.0, digital acumen, environmental sustainability, and a superior employee value equation. These 4 focus areas are not new or separate strategies. They simply strengthen our ability to execute the strategy.

我們持續透過 4 個重點領域來改善綜合策略的執行：供應鏈 3.0 的強勁進展、數位敏銳性、環境永續性和卓越的員工價值方程式。這 4 個重點領域並不是新的或獨立的策略。它們只是增強我們執行策略的能力。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization, reinforce and build on each other. When executed well, they grow markets which in turn grow share, sales and profit. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable top and bottom line growth is to double down on this integrated strategy, starting with a commitment to deliver Irresistibly Superior propositions to consumers and retail partners fueled by productivity.

我們在投資組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織方面的策略選擇相互加強和相互促進。如果執行得當，他們會擴大市場，進而增加份額、銷售和利潤。我們仍然相信，實現可持續的營收和利潤成長的最佳途徑是加倍實施這項綜合策略，首先承諾在生產力的推動下，向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供不可抗拒的卓越主張。

Moving on to guidance. As I mentioned, we expect the environment around us to continue to be volatile and challenging, from input costs to currencies, to consumer, retailer, and geopolitical dynamics. However, our strong results year-to-date enable us to raise or maintain key guidance metrics for the year.

繼續指導。正如我所提到的，我們預計周圍的環境將繼續波動且充滿挑戰，從投入成本到貨幣，再到消費者、零售商和地緣政治動態。然而，我們今年迄今為止的強勁業績使我們能夠提高或維持今年的關鍵指導指標。

We're maintaining our guidance range for organic sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year. We're squarely in the middle of this range fiscal year-to-date. This outlook assumes continued normalization in underlying market growth rates that we've seen over the past few quarters: Markets will be lapping the last waves of cost recovery pricing and volumes slowly begin to recover. We also expect the market-level changes we faced through quarter 3 to continue in Q4, though with some directional improvement.

我們維持本財年有機銷售額成長 4% 至 5% 的指導範圍。財年至今，我們正好處於這個範圍的中間。這一前景假設我們在過去幾季看到的基礎市場成長率持續正常化：市場將經歷最後一波成本回收定價，銷售開始緩慢恢復。我們也預計第三季所面臨的市場層面的變化將在第四季度繼續，儘管會有一些方向性的改善。

On the bottom line, enabled by 15% core EPS growth year-to-date, we are raising our outlook for fiscal '24, core earnings per share from a range of 8% to 9% to a range of 10% to 11%. This outlook includes continued strong investments in innovation and brand building to grow markets and extend the superiority of P&G offerings to consumers. We now estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $900 million after tax in fiscal '24 based on current spot prices. This is a modest improvement versus the outlook we provided last quarter, though nearly all of this benefit has been booked in the first 3 quarters of the year.

總而言之，由於今年迄今核心每股收益成長 15%，我們將 24 財年的預期上調，每股核心收益從 8% 至 9% 提高至 10% 至 11% 。這一前景包括對創新和品牌建設的持續大力投資，以擴大市場並向消費者擴展寶潔產品的優勢。根據目前現貨價格，我們現在估計 24 財年大宗商品將帶來約 9 億美元的稅後推手。與我們上季度提供的前景相比，這是一個適度的改善，儘管幾乎所有這些收益都已在今年前三個季度預訂。

We now expect foreign exchange to be a headwind of approximately $600 million after tax for the fiscal year. The change versus prior guidance reflects volatility in Argentina exchange rates, including a period of currency appreciation in quarter 3 and a revised devaluation outlook for quarter 4. We also reflect a reduction in Argentina FX exposure due to the divestiture of our Argentina Fabric and Home Care business which we completed in mid-March, and reduced assumptions for future volume and pricing given the current rate outlook and recent shipment trends. The net impact of these changes is a relatively modest help to the bottom line, which is reflected in our updated EPS outlook.

我們現在預計本財年稅後外匯將帶來約 6 億美元的不利影響。與先前指引相比的變化反映了阿根廷匯率的波動，包括第三季度的貨幣升值期和第四季度修訂後的貶值前景。阿根廷外匯敞口的減少我們在 3 月中旬完成了業務，並鑑於當前的費率前景和近期的出貨趨勢，減少了對未來銷售和定價的假設。這些變化的淨影響對獲利的幫助相對較小，這反映在我們更新的每股盈餘展望中。

We expect higher net interest expense of approximately $100 million after tax versus prior year. General inflation and higher wage and benefit costs are also earnings headwinds for the year. We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%. And we expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends, to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock. Combined, a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareowners for the year.

我們預計稅後淨利息支出將比上年增加約 1 億美元。整體通膨以及薪資和福利成本上升也是今年獲利的阻力。我們預計調整後的自由現金流生產力為 90%。我們預計將支付超過 90 億美元的股息，回購 50 億至 60 億美元的普通股。合併後，計劃在今年向股東返還 140 億至 150 億美元現金。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption or major production stoppages are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.

這項展望是基於當前市場成長率估計、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。在這些指導範圍內，預計不會出現貨幣大幅疲軟、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治混亂或重大生產停頓的情況。

Finally, we'll be closely watching the more volatile regions we mentioned earlier, including the health of the China market. And we'll be keeping a close watch on competitive dynamics to ensure P&G brands remain a superior value for consumers and for retailers.

最後，我們將密切關注先前提到的波動較大的地區，包括中國市場的健康狀況。我們將密切關注競爭動態，以確保寶潔品牌對消費者和零售商保持卓越的價值。

The entire P&G organization remains focused on excellent execution of our integrated market-constructive strategy, which has delivered strong results in a challenging operating and competitive environment. While we expect volatile consumer and macro dynamics to continue, we are confident the best path forward is to double down on this strategy, remain fully invested to drive Irresistible Superiority across every part of our portfolio, and stay focused on delivering balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation for our shareowners.

整個寶潔公司仍然專注於出色執行我們的綜合市場建設策略，該策略在充滿挑戰的營運和競爭環境中取得了強勁的成果。雖然我們預計消費者和宏觀動態將繼續波動，但我們相信，最好的前進道路是加倍實施這一策略，繼續充分投資，以推動我們投資組合各個部分的不可抗拒的優勢，並繼續專注於實現平衡的營收和利潤為我們的股東帶來成長和價值創造。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question today comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）您今天的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼（Lauren Lieberman）。

Andre, I wanted to talk a little bit about market growth versus market share. So first off, if you could just -- I know you said volatile a few times. But just if you could give us a sense for sort of a high-level expectation for global market growth over the next 12 months.

安德烈，我想談談市場成長與市場佔有率的關係。首先，如果你可以──我知道你說過幾次不穩定的事情。但請讓我們了解一下對未來 12 個月全球市場成長的高水準預期。

And then digging in a little bit more specifically. You shared -- you offered comments on share performance, particularly in North America and also in Europe Focus. But I was curious if you could talk maybe about market share trends or the degree you can tell in China. And maybe let's talk about it excluding SK-II because I think that's an issue unto itself. but just a sense of P&G's performance versus the China market overall. And since it's been lagging for quite a while, arguably, things that you guys are seeing, addressing, doing differently or considering doing differently to shift that trend.

然後再進行更具體的挖掘。您分享了對股票表現的評論，特別是在北美和歐洲焦點。但我很好奇你是否可以談談市場佔有率趨勢或你在中國能看到的程度。也許我們可以排除 SK-II 來討論這個問題，因為我認為這本身就是一個問題。但這只是寶潔公司與中國市場整體表現的比較。由於它已經滯後了很長一段時間，可以說，你們正在看到、解決、採取不同的做法或考慮採取不同的做法來改變這一趨勢。

Very good. Lauren, so let me start with overall consumption strength because it really is and continues to be strong. The consumption trends in the markets are stable despite multiple headwinds, and P&G is growing consumer offtake in terms of value share in 29 of our top 50 category country combinations.

非常好。勞倫，讓我從整體消費強度開始，因為它確實並且持續強勁。儘管面臨多重阻力，市場消費趨勢仍保持穩定，而且寶潔公司在 50 個前 50 個品類國家組合中的 29 個國家中，其價值份額正在不斷增長。

Globally, we are growing value share by 10 basis points. And the consumption trends are really strong across markets with few exceptions, which we'll get into. U.S. consumption in quarter 3 was 5%, and P&G value share is up. So our consumption actually grew ahead of that, both in terms of value and in terms of volume, actually with volume share being up 40 basis points on all outlet in the most recent period. So continued strength in consumption trends in North America and continued strength in terms of P&G performance within that consumption.

在全球範圍內，我們的價值份額增加了 10 個基點。各個市場的消費趨勢都非常強勁，幾乎沒有例外，我們將對此進行討論。第三季美國消費率為 5%，寶潔價值份額上升。因此，我們的消費實際上在價值和數量方面都領先於這一增長，最近一段時間所有出口的數量份額實際上上升了 40 個基點。因此，北美消費趨勢持續強勁，寶潔在該消費領域的業績也持續強勁。

Europe Focus Markets consumption is in the range of 8% to 9%, also very strong. And we are growing by more than a share point within that market. Both volume growth very strong with 4 points in the quarter and 3 points of price/mix. And Europe Enterprise Markets are growing. And so the business from a consumption standpoint, which really for us is the most important metric, is in a good place.

歐洲焦點市場的消費在8%到9%的範圍內，也非常強勁。我們在該市場中的份額增長超過一個點。銷售成長非常強勁，本季成長了 4 個百分點，價格/組合成長了 3 個百分點。歐洲企業市場正在成長。因此，從消費的角度來看，這對我們來說確實是最重要的指標，業務處於良好的位置。

We continue to deal with very specific headwinds in quarter 3 that we've discussed already in quarter 2, but they continue. There's a soft market consumption in China. We'll get more into that to the second part of your question. SK-II continues to be a headwind in the quarter, and we see some impact from tensions in the Middle East. When you sum it all up, that's about 1.5-point impact on the global top line. And then we have the inventory reduction in North America, which is about 1 point on the global top line as well.

我們在第三季度繼續應對我們在第二季度已經討論過的非常具體的阻力，但它們仍在繼續。中國市場消費疲軟。我們將在您問題的第二部分對此進行更多討論。 SK-II 在本季度仍然是一個阻力，我們看到中東緊張局勢的一些影響。總而言之，這對全球營收約有 1.5 個百分點的影響。然後北美的庫存減少了，這也比全球收入減少了約 1 個百分點。

And if you put it together, 2 conclusions. One, the headwinds that we're calling out are temporary in nature. So first of all, the inventory reduction, which is a point on the top line. We expect that to be a single event, not a continued phenomena to observe. It was mainly driven by Personal Health Care because the supply situation is stabilizing after a softer season so retailers don't need to hold safety stock. And the headwinds in China on SK-II and in the Middle East will ease over time and eventually annualize over the coming quarters.

如果你把它們放在一起，就會得出兩個結論。第一，我們所呼籲的逆風本質上是暫時的。首先是庫存減少，這是營收的一個點。我們期望這是一個單一事件，而不是觀察到的持續現象。這主要是由個人醫療保健推動的，因為供應情況在淡季之後趨於穩定，因此零售商不需要持有安全庫存。中國和中東對 SK-II 的不利影響將隨著時間的推移而緩解，並最終在未來幾季逐年化。

That does not mean that we will ignore any of the headwinds. We are fully focused on accelerating growth in China on SK-II and driving sustainable growth in Asia and Middle East markets, but it explains that we can hold our organic sales growth guidance at 4% to 5%. We're very confident in that. And fiscal year-to-date, as we mentioned in the script, we're right at that level.

這並不意味著我們會忽視任何不利因素。我們完全專注於加速 SK-II 在中國的成長，並推動亞洲和中東市場的永續成長，但這說明我們可以將有機銷售成長指引保持在 4% 至 5%。我們對此非常有信心。正如我們在腳本中提到的，截至本財年，我們正處於這個水平。

Last point on that topic. We remain fully invested, and the gross margin progress the team has made is actually enabling us to continue to double down on investments to drive market growth and drive our own consumption and share within that.

關於該主題的最後一點。我們仍然充分投資，團隊的毛利率進步實際上使我們能夠繼續加倍投資，以推動市場成長並推動我們自己的消費和份額。

Specifically on China, to the second part of your question, Lauren. I think it's a good way to look at China excluding SK-II, as you suggest. We are making sequential progress. The share in the most recent read is flat. And our shipments or our organic sales in China are improving quarter-over-quarter.

勞倫，特別是關於中國的問題的第二部分。我認為，正如您所建議的，這是一個看待中國（排除 SK-II）的好方法。我們正在取得連續進展。最近閱讀的份額持平。我們在中國的出貨量或有機銷售額正在逐季度改善。

If you look at quarter 2, our organic sales excluding SK-II in China were down 10%. In the most recent quarter, they were down 3%. So we're making progress. The market is not yet recovering, but we see the trajectory going in the right direction.

如果你看看第二季度，我們在中國的有機銷售額（不包括 SK-II）下降了 10%。最近一個季度，該數字下降了 3%。所以我們正在取得進展。市場尚未復甦，但我們看到軌跡正朝著正確的方向發展。

We have pockets of strength. Baby Care, for example, in China, has grown 11% in the current quarter. Our appliance business growing 14%. We are making strong investments in our Hair Care business with a more streamlined portfolio. And we feel good about our ability to continue to drive market growth, be market-constructive in China, and see the upside as we've articulated before on a longer term participating in the Chinese market.

我們有實力。以中國的嬰兒護理用品為例，本季成長了 11%。我們的家電業務成長了 14%。我們正在透過更精簡的產品組合對護髮業務進行大力投資。我們對我們繼續推動市場成長、對中國市場具有建設性的能力感到滿意，並看到了我們先前闡述的長期參與中國市場的好處。

Will it be a straight line to recovery? No. It probably takes a few more quarters before we turn back to growth. But we see the trend line improving.

復健會是一條直線嗎？不。但我們看到趨勢線正在改善。

The next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Andre, I think you mentioned that nearly all of the commodity benefits that you expected this year, you've essentially fully benefited from through the third quarter. And we've seen year-to-date in the calendar year, [spot price of oil on investments and production costs]. So I guess just some thoughts on that in terms of how that impacts your early planning for fiscal '25.

安德烈，我認為您提到了您今年預期的幾乎所有商品收益，到第三季度您基本上已經完全受益。我們已經看到了日曆年迄今為止的情況，[石油現貨價格對投資和生產成本的影響]。因此，我想就這如何影響您 25 財年的早期規劃而言，我想談談一些想法。

And maybe sort of related to that, just your confidence in your view, visibility into the productivity pipeline. And can we expect, and do you have confidence, you can run at an accelerated cadence of productivity over the next 12 to 18 months as well based on that pipeline?

也許與此相關，只是你對自己的觀點的信心，對生產力管道的可見性。我們是否可以期望，您是否有信心，在未來 12 到 18 個月內，您也可以基於該管道以更快的生產力節奏運行？

Yes. So commodity benefits, as we've mentioned in the script and you correctly state, have been really impacting fiscal year-to-date results. Any remaining change, and we see, obviously, the impact of oil running up a little bit and also other commodities like pulp, for example, where the supply situation is a little bit tighter, are coming up. There will be some impact on the current fiscal year. But given flow-through of contracts and various holding policies, I expect that to be limited. And we've anticipated that within our updated guidance ranges. So no impact to the current fiscal year.

是的。因此，正如我們在腳本中提到的以及您正確指出的那樣，商品福利確實影響了本財年迄今為止的業績。任何剩餘的變化，我們顯然會看到，石油上漲的影響以及紙漿等其他大宗商品的影響，例如供應情況稍微緊張的情況，都會出現。這將對本財年產生一定影響。但考慮到合約的流通和各種持有政策，我預計這將是有限的。我們預計這將在我們更新的指導範圍內。因此對本財年沒有影響。

Obviously, if spot prices hold, you correctly state it will have an impact on next year. But I do feel strongly about our ability, and I think we've proven it over the past 2 years, that with a combination of strong innovation, good reasonable pricing, combined with that innovation and strong productivity, whatever comes our way, we'll be able to handle.

顯然，如果現貨價格保持不變，您正確地指出它將對明年產生影響。但我確實對我們的能力有強烈的感覺，我認為我們在過去的兩年裡已經證明了這一點，透過結合強大的創新、良好合理的定價，再加上創新和強大的生產力，無論我們遇到什麼情況，我們'就能應付。

On the productivity pipeline, I feel very good about where we are. We have now across all businesses, a 3-year, what I would call a productivity master plan, which is something that we invested a lot of energy and time on in each business to make sure that we generate enough ideas, even those that take longer to implement, specifically as we work with our retail partners and we work with our supply chains to really fundamentally improve the efficiency of some of our combined processes.

在生產力方面，我對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。我們現在對所有業務都有一個為期三年的，我稱之為生產力總體規劃，我們在每個業務上投入了大量的精力和時間，以確保我們產生足夠的想法，甚至是那些需要花費大量時間的想法。

We have great visibility over 3 years. The top line is sufficient to what we need it to be. So the part I feel really strong about is productivity. It's fully in our control. And I think the teams are doing a great job creating projects and creating visibility to a very strong pipeline over the coming years.

3年來我們擁有良好的知名度。頂行足以滿足我們的需要。所以我最重視的是生產力。這完全在我們的控制之中。我認為這些團隊在創建專案和為未來幾年的強大管道創建可見性方面做得非常出色。

The next question is from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

Andre, I was hoping if you can elaborate a little bit more on the flat price/mix in the U.S. in fiscal 3Q, if are you seeing any down-trade within your portfolio? Or is that self-inflicted as you offer more IGM on the lower price points? Or anything about packing that we should be aware of?

安德烈，我希望您能詳細說明美國第三財季的統一價格/組合，您是否看到您的投資組合中有任何下跌交易？或者這是你自己造成的，因為你以較低的價格提供了更多的 IGM？或者說關於包裝有什麼我們該注意的嗎？

And also related to that, I saw you mentioned in your release about the pricing-related volume declines in Baby Care. Is that mostly China? Is there anything you can elaborate? Or is that also the U.S.?

與此相關的是，我看到您在新聞稿中提到了嬰兒護理產品中與定價相關的銷售下降。主要是中國嗎？有什麼可以詳細說明的嗎？或者說這也是美國？

And I think to Steve's commentary about commodities and question about commodities, anything you can talk to us regarding the lag that we're going to see that coming through into fiscal '25?

我認為，對於史蒂夫關於大宗商品的評論和關於大宗商品的問題，您可以與我們談論我們將看到的關於 25 財年的滯後嗎？

Andrea, look, the flat price/mix contribution to organic sales growth in the U.S. is an outcome of simply annualizing the price increases that we had taken in previous periods. That was anticipated. And it's consistent with what we're seeing in terms of the construction of the market growth across the U.S. The volume component is coming up, getting closer to about 2%. And the value component is coming down. Different players have priced at different points. So that's really the differential between market and us.

安德里亞，看，統一價格/組合對美國有機銷售增長的貢獻是簡單地將我們之前時期的價格上漲按年計算的結果。這是預料之中的。這與我們所看到的美國市場成長的情況一致。價值部分正在下降。不同的玩家有不同的定價。所以這確實是市場和我們之間的差異。

There is no trade-down of note that I -- that we can observe. Private-label shares -- value shares are actually very stable, 16.4% past 1 month and 16.4% past 12 months. So consumers are not trading down within the U.S. towards private label. And if anything, we continue to see, when consumers trade into P&G, which they continue to do because both volume share up strongly in the U.S., and value share up, once they trade into P&G propositions, they continue to trade up actually within those propositions. Be it from liquid detergent to unit dose to PowerMop. So we continue to observe that. So no worries in terms of trade-down.

我們可以觀察到沒有值得注意的折衷。自有品牌股票－價值股票實際上非常穩定，過去 1 個月為 16.4%，過去 12 個月為 16.4%。因此，美國消費者不會轉而購買自有品牌產品。如果說有什麼不同的話，我們繼續看到，當消費者購買寶潔產品時，他們會繼續這樣做，因為美國的銷售份額和價值份額都大幅上升，一旦他們購買寶潔產品，他們實際上會繼續在在這些產品中進行購買。從液體洗滌劑到單位劑量到 PowerMop。所以我們繼續觀察這一點。所以不用擔心折價。

On Baby specifically, look, Baby is annualizing a very strong base period and obviously was heavily exposed to the commodity run-up, and therefore took pricing, and in combination with productivity and strong innovation.

具體就嬰兒而言，你看，嬰兒的年化基期非常強勁，顯然受到大宗商品上漲的嚴重影響，因此採取了定價，並結合了生產力和強大的創新。

The volume decline, I would say, is really differential by region. If you look at China, the business is growing very strongly. It's actually 11% growth in the quarter, share growth of more than 1 point in China, and that's with birth rates contracting. So the portfolio strength in China is remarkable.

我想說的是，成交量的下降確實因地區而異。如果你看看中國，你會發現業務成長非常強勁。實際上，本季成長了 11%，中國的份額成長超過 1 個百分點，而且出生率也在下降。因此，中國的投資組合實力非常出色。

When I look at the U.S., the premium tier, so when you look at Swaddlers, you look at Cruisers and Cruisers 360, those -- that -- those tiers we have been innovating in very strongly over the past 12, 15 months, and they are growing. They are growing share and they are growing sales.

當我關注美國的高端市場時，當你關注 Swaddlers 時，你會關注 Cruisers 和 Cruisers 360，那些——那些——那些我們在過去 12、15 個月裡一直在大力創新的級別，以及他們正在成長。他們的份額和銷售額都在成長。

Where we have an opportunity in the U.S. is on the mid-tier, on Luvs for example. We have not been able to push the full innovation pipeline out for different reasons. And that's what the team really is focused on, to reestablish superiority on those few businesses where we feel that we let value get a little bit out of sync with what the consumer needs. But the plans are there, so now it's a matter of execution.

我們在美國有機會的地方是中端市場，例如 Luvs。由於各種原因，我們未能推出完整的創新管道。這就是團隊真正關注的重點，在我們認為價值與消費者需求有點不同步的少數業務上重新建立優勢。但計劃已經有了，現在就是執行的問題了。

So we feel very good overall about the Baby Care business. Strong innovation pipeline, and that I think will address the isolated superiority gaps that we might have.

因此，我們對嬰兒護理業務總體感覺非常好。強大的創新管道，我認為這將解決我們可能存在的孤立的優勢差距。

On commodities, it's very difficult to say when they would actually flow through. I think it's safe to say that there's at least 60 to 90 days of delay. Many of the commodities will take longer to flow through simply because of contracts structures that use certain trigger points or holding periods. So I would say at least 60 to 90 days. For many of them, probably longer. The only one that tends to flow through quickly is fuel, diesel, obviously, because it's captured in transportation.

就大宗商品而言，很難說它們何時會真正流通。我認為可以肯定地說，至少有 60 到 90 天的延遲。許多商品將需要更長的時間才能流通，只是因為合約結構使用了某些觸發點或持有期。所以我想說至少 60 到 90 天。對於他們中的許多人來說，可能會更長。顯然，唯一能夠快速流動的物質是燃料、柴油，因為它是在運輸過程中被捕獲的。

The next question is from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

We just touched on pricing, maybe we can switch to the volume side. Could you just talk about your level of visibility and perhaps a bit of magnitude that you're expecting in Q4 in terms of returning to volume growth going forward? Obviously, a flat result this quarter, but there were some items that depressed volume that get better going forward in terms of U.S. inventory, SK-II weakness, et cetera. So just looking for some perspective going forward, particularly as pricing presumably continues to decelerate a bit.

我們剛剛談到了定價，也許我們可以轉向數量方面。您能否談談您的知名度以及您對第四季度恢復銷售成長的預期程度？顯然，本季業績持平，但有一些因素抑制了銷量，但在美國庫存、SK-II 疲軟等方面，銷量會有所改善。因此，只是尋找一些未來的前景，特別是在定價可能繼續略有下降的情況下。

And also maybe you can just touch on, given the heavy marketing this year, presumably with the SG&A increases, the level of payback and ROI you think you're getting on that higher marketing in terms of volume.

也許您還可以談談，考慮到今年的營銷力度很大，大概是隨著 SG&A 的增加，您認為您在銷量方面獲得了更高的營銷回報和投資回報率。

On the volume side, look, I think the effects that we described that are holding us back in the current quarter, the inventory effect in the U.S. of 2 points, which is 1 point on a global basis, I don't expect that to hold. So I expect the U.S. to continue to grow in terms of volume beyond the 3% that we're seeing in the current quarter. I expect some of the negative headwinds in China, the Middle East and SK-II hopefully will improve sequentially.

在數量方面，看，我認為我們所描述的影響在本季度阻礙了我們，美國的庫存效應為 2 個點，在全球範圍內為 1 個點，我預計這不會抓住。因此，我預計美國的銷量成長將繼續超過本季的 3%。我預期中國、中東和 SK-II 的一些負面阻力有望依次改善。

But in aggregate, I fully expect the markets to continue to recover, shift more towards volume growth as we've seen consistently over the recent periods. And since we're growing or holding volume share in most geographies, that will also flow into our results. So sequential progress on volumes. Many open questions still, but I expect the line to point upwards.

但總的來說，我完全預計市場將繼續復甦，並更多地轉向銷量成長，正如我們最近一段時間所看到的那樣。由於我們在大多數地區都在成長或維持銷售份額，這也將影響到我們的業績。所以數量上的連續進展。仍有許多懸而未決的問題，但我預計這條線會向上。

On marketing spend, you're right, we continue to invest in reach, frequency with strong quality of communication across the markets. We are very diligent in pre-ROI analysis and very diligent in post-event analysis to ensure that we understand whether the spending is effective. And if you look at the results, I would argue it is.

在行銷支出方面，你是對的，我們繼續投資於覆蓋範圍、頻率以及跨市場的高品質溝通。我們非常勤於事前分析，也非常勤於事後分析，以確保我們了解支出是否有效。如果你看一下結果，我認為確實如此。

The strongest combinations of great product innovation with a very sharp consumer insight, translated into a great copy, drives strong results. So if you look for example at our Skin and Personal Care business, Old Spice and Secret Total Body deodorant, great consumer insight, great product, great packaging, strong communication, and the business is growing 11% in North America.

出色的產品創新與敏銳的消費者洞察力的最強結合，轉化為出色的文案，可帶來強勁的業績。因此，如果您看看我們的皮膚和個人護理業務、Old Spice 和 Secret 全身除臭劑，出色的消費者洞察力、出色的產品、出色的包裝、強大的溝通，北美業務增長了 11%。

If you look at our Home Care portfolio, those are categories that are expandable. With PowerMop, for example, getting new users to use Febreeze plug-ins, those marketing investments grow the market and they grow our share within the market. So expandable categories is a big investment area for us.

如果您查看我們的居家護理產品組合，您會發現這些類別是可擴展的。例如，透過 PowerMop，讓新用戶使用 Febreeze 插件，這些行銷投資擴大了市場，並增加了我們在市場中的份額。所以可擴展的品類對我們來說是一個很大的投資領域。

So we continue to drive high levels of discipline. We will not spend if there's no ROI. And you're right, we're watching the same and asking the same question to ensure that we remain on the right side of that line.

因此，我們繼續推動高水準的紀律。如果沒有投資報酬率，我們就不會花錢。你是對的，我們正在觀察同樣的事情並提出同樣的問題，以確保我們保持在這條線的右側。

The next question is from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Maybe, Andre, just to pick up on that last point. I guess if we think about year-to-date and I guess as it translates to the full year and the base, we have some headwinds that shouldn't recur, right. The weakness in corporate, chemicals, the destock that you just mentioned, SK-II I guess being more negative than overall market in China for the reasons we know. So I guess, as we kind of think about next year, right, and confidence in being able to be in line with long-term organic sales targets, is -- does the comps make it easier? Should we be thinking about the macro environment maybe not being supportive? Just try to put some context around the organic sales growth this quarter, right, which decelerated from the last quarter. And just is there anything we should be thinking about as we move -- we start thinking about our models for next year?

也許，安德烈，只是為了了解最後一點。我想如果我們考慮今年迄今為止的情況，我想當它轉化為全年和基數時，我們會遇到一些不應該再次出現的逆風，對吧。企業、化學品、您剛才提到的去庫存、SK-II 的疲軟，我認為由於我們所知的原因，它比中國整體市場更為負面。所以我想，當我們考慮明年時，對的，以及對能夠符合長期有機銷售目標的信心是——比較是否會讓事情變得更容易？我們是否應該考慮宏觀環境可能不支援？試著了解本季有機銷售成長的背景，對吧，有機銷售成長比上季有所放緩。當我們行動時，我們應該考慮什麼——我們開始考慮明年的模式嗎？

Bryan, I would point first to the market growth expectation, which we said we expect markets to be in the range of 3% to 4% in terms of value growth. And that will be a combination of 2 points of volume and 1 to 2 points of price/mix. That is still our assumption. Our role per our growth algorithm is to be growing slightly ahead of that by driving market growth, which in turn will drive share and a bigger part of us leading the market. So that would be my answer.

Bryan，我首先要指出市場成長預期，我們表示，我們預期市場的價值成長將在 3% 至 4% 之間。這將是 2 個數量點和 1 到 2 個價格/組合點的組合。這仍然是我們的假設。根據我們的成長演算法，我們的角色是透過推動市場成長來稍微領先於市場成長，這反過來又會提高份額，並在更大程度上引領市場。這就是我的答案。

On the current fiscal year, obviously, by reiterating guidance of 4% to 5% and being right in the middle of that range fiscal year-to-date, that means mathematically, we expect quarter 4 to be in the 4% to 5% range. And if you project that out, I think with the market growth dynamic I was describing, I think that will give you a good starting point for next fiscal year.

顯然，在本財年，透過重申4% 至5% 的指導，並處於該財年迄今為止該範圍的中間，這意味著從數學上講，我們預計第四季度將在4% 至5% 之間範圍。如果你將其預測出來，我認為根據我所描述的市場成長動態，我認為這將為你下一財年提供一個好的起點。

The next question is from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I just had a clarification on your guidance. You maintain your FY '24 organic sales growth of 4% to 5%, but that implies a step-up of growth in Q4 to get to the high end of your range. So I guess I wanted to clarify if you still expect to be at the high end. Or should we assume coming in at maybe the midpoint of your top line guide for the year is more realistic?

我剛剛對您的指導進行了澄清。您維持 24 財年有機銷售額成長 4% 至 5%，但這意味著第四季度的成長將加快，以達到範圍的高端。所以我想我想澄清一下您是否仍然希望處於高端。或者我們應該假設進入今年營收指南的中點更為現實？

And then maybe just a quick question on your SG&A expense, which did step up quite a bit during the quarter. So just maybe hoping for a little more color on the drivers of this.

然後也許只是一個關於您的 SG&A 費用的快速問題，該費用在本季度確實增加了很多。所以也許只是希望對這個驅動因素有更多的了解。

Bonnie, we did not reiterate the top end of the range, but we reiterated the range. And that means 5% is still possible. Is it probable? I don't know, probably more 50-50 than it was before. So the range is valid. I wouldn't point today at the top end of the range.

邦妮，我們沒有重申範圍的上限，但我們重申了範圍。這意味著 5% 仍然是可能的。有可能嗎？我不知道，可能比以前多了50-50。所以這個範圍是有效的。今天我不會指出該範圍的上限。

On the SG&A line, we continue to invest in marketing, as we discussed in previous question. And we really saw an increase in our marketing spend of about 14% year-over-year. That's the main driver. It's offset by productivity on the SG&A line. But really, I would point to continued investment -- productive investment to drive market growth and push out our innovation, and that's the main driver of the SG&A increase that you've seen.

在 SG&A 方面，我們繼續投資於行銷，正如我們在上一個問題中討論的那樣。我們確實看到我們的行銷支出年增了約 14%。這是主要驅動力。它被 SG&A 生產線的生產力所抵消。但實際上，我想指出的是持續投資——生產性投資，以推動市場成長並推動我們的創新，這是您所看到的 SG&A 成長的主要驅動力。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James。

My question is about mix, which flattened out this quarter after about 1.5 years of improvement. So clearly, you guys have been adamant that we're not seeing trade-down. But as you look at this, how much of that is trade-up is just harder to do now? You've obviously done -- you've been very successful of late with Powerwash and EZ-Squeeze and PODS, et cetera, et cetera. So is that becoming harder? And could you talk about mix expectations over perhaps the next 12 months?

我的問題是關於組合的，經過大約 1.5 年的改進後，本季趨於平穩。很明顯，你們一直堅持我們不會看到妥協。但當你看到這一點時，你會發現其中有多少是現在更難做到的？顯然，您已經做到了——您最近在 Powerwash、EZ-Squeeze 和 PODS 等方面取得了非常成功的成功。那麼這變得更難了嗎？您能否談談未來 12 個月的混合預期？

Yes. Thanks, Olivia. I don't think the fundamental dynamic in terms of consumers trading into the P&G portfolio and trading up is changing. We've not observed it over the past 2 years, and we've not seen it in the most recent period.

是的。謝謝，奧莉維亞。我不認為消費者購買寶潔產品組合和升級產品的基本動態正在改變。過去兩年我們沒有觀察到它，最近一段時間我們也沒有看到它。

There are some drivers and headwinds to mix. The biggest headwind I would mention is SK-II being down 30%. It's our highest value per -- or one of the highest value per unit items, and that obviously has a material impact on mix. Outside of that, we really don't see in any of the regions a significant down-trading within our portfolio. And as I mentioned in the U.S., we continue to see trade-up. Actually, the premium tiers on Baby Care doing better. I mentioned that in the context of Luvs.

有一些驅動因素和不利因素混合在一起。我要提到的最大阻力是 SK-II 下跌 30%。這是我們的最高價值——或者說是每件商品的最高價值之一，這顯然對組合產生了重大影響。除此之外，我們確實沒有在任何地區看到我們的投資組合出現顯著的下跌交易。正如我在美國提到的，我們繼續看到以舊換新。事實上，嬰兒護理的高級產品做得更好。我在 Luvs 的背景下提到過這一點。

So we continue to think that the way that we innovate, providing value with innovation and showing the superiority of our premium items in the portfolio is resonating with consumers. And as long as we do that and as long as that value is real and tangible for consumers, I think we can hold on to that mix trend that we've seen consistently.

因此，我們仍然認為，我們的創新方式、透過創新提供價值並展示我們的優質產品在產品組合中的優越性正在引起消費者的共鳴。只要我們這樣做，只要這種價值對消費者來說是真實和有形的，我認為我們就可以保持我們一直看到的混合趨勢。

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的克里斯凱裡。

Chris, are you still there? We can't hear you.

克里斯，你還在嗎？我們聽不到你的聲音。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Now we can.

現在我們可以了。

Okay. Just regarding the -- just one quick follow-up on the organic sales range for the full year. The slight change -- and I know the range is still in scope. Can you just frame maybe how much of that was the inventory dynamics in the U.S., maybe a little bit less pricing in Argentina, versus anything that has fundamentally developed through the quarter?

好的。只是關於全年有機銷售範圍的快速跟進。細微的變化——我知道範圍仍在範圍內。您能否概括一下，與本季基本發展的情況相比，美國的庫存動態有多少，阿根廷的定價可能略低一些？

And just connected to that, if you could, you mentioned the elasticity dynamics in Baby and Feminine Care in the press release. Can you just comment on what you're seeing from a broader perspective? Specifically as you may need to contemplate some incremental pricing next year with the moves we're seeing on the cost side.

與此相關的是，如果可以的話，您在新聞稿中提到了嬰兒和女性護理中的彈性動態。您能否從更廣泛的角度評論一下您所看到的情況？具體來說，您可能需要考慮明年我們在成本方面看到的一些增量定價。

Thanks, Chris. I think you gave the answer on the organic sales line. It's exactly that. I think Argentina, as we said, the peso requires a little less pricing. That's an impact on organic sales. And the business is also smaller and responding maybe more aggressively to the pricing. So that is one building block.

謝謝，克里斯。我想你在有機銷售線上給了答案。正是如此。我認為阿根廷，正如我們所說，比索的定價要低一些。這對有機銷售產生了影響。而且業務規模也較小，對定價的反應可能更積極。這是一個組成部分。

The other building block, I think, is -- the biggest one is really the U.S. inventory reduction. So as I think about the step-up that we need to see in order to be within that 4% to 5% range, we assume that, that inventory reduction is a onetimer, and that's what we expect in the guidance range.

我認為，另一個組成部分是——最大的一個實際上是美國庫存的減少。因此，當我考慮為了保持在 4% 至 5% 的範圍內而需要採取的措施時，我們假設庫存減少是一次性的，這就是我們在指導範圍內的預期。

The elasticity in general is not changing. I think we've done -- and you see it in the results. I think the teams have done a very good job of making sure that we maintain a healthy value equation for our retail partners and our consumers with strong innovation, with pricing, only pricing where necessary, balancing pricing with strong productivity. So I do feel overall the business is responding very favorably even after we had to take the pricing that we took.

彈性整體上沒有變化。我認為我們已經做到了——你可以從結果中看到這一點。我認為這些團隊做得非常好，確保我們透過強大的創新、定價，僅在必要時定價，平衡定價與強大的生產力，為我們的零售合作夥伴和消費者維持健康的價值方程式。因此，我確實認為，即使在我們不得不採取我們所採取的定價之後，總體而言，業務的反應還是非常有利的。

The volume is coming up as we would have expected both in the market and for P&G, and our biggest geographies were growing volume share consistently. So I do feel overall the elasticity is doing well.

銷售量的成長符合我們對市場和寶潔的預期，而且我們最大的地區銷售份額持續成長。所以我確實覺得整體彈性做得很好。

Baby is a very elastic category. And especially, as I mentioned, if -- we've not been able to consistently innovate across all tiers. And that actually is a confirmation of the model. So where we've not been able to push the innovation out and hold the full level of superiority as we took pricing, the consumer is responding. And we know the answer to that, which is push the innovation that we know how to do and communicate the superiority. And I'm confident that we'll recover the elasticity here. I don't see a broader issue. Actually, I see a lot of upside with the strength of the innovation pipeline going into next year.

寶貝是一個彈性很大的品類。特別是，正如我所提到的，如果我們無法在所有層面上持續創新。這其實是對模型的確認。因此，當我們無法推動創新並在定價時保持完全的優勢時，消費者就會做出反應。我們知道答案，那就是推動我們知道如何進行的創新並傳達優勢。我相信我們會恢復這裡的彈性。我沒有看到更廣泛的問題。事實上，我看到明年創新通路的實力有許多好處。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自卡勒姆·艾利奧特和伯恩斯坦。

I wanted to come back, please, to Andrea's question on trade-down. I think, Andre, you had pointed to the stable private-label market share as a sign that there is no trade-down. And I want to push back on that a bit. I think we all know that the consumers under the most pressure at the moment are the low-income consumers, many of whom were probably already using private-label products in the first place.

我想回到安德里亞關於折價交易的問題。我認為，安德烈，您曾指出穩定的自有品牌市佔率是不存在折價的跡象。我想反駁一下這一點。我想我們都知道，目前壓力最大的消費者是低收入消費者，他們中的許多人可能一開始就已經在使用自有品牌產品了。

And so my question is, is it not possible that volume reductions and cutbacks amongst the low-income cohorts, sort of who were already using private label a year ago, are offsetting the trade-down impacts and sort of masking that trade-down in that flat market share number that you're talking about? And that could also explain why category growth has weakened so much.

所以我的問題是，低收入群體（一年前就已經在使用自有品牌）的銷量減少和削減是否有可能抵消以舊換新的影響，並在某種程度上掩蓋這種以舊換新的影響？的那個平坦的市佔率數字？這也可以解釋為什麼品類成長大幅減弱。

And I guess, just to add to the question. I'm surprised that the private-label market share is the metric that you're pointing to, to justify lack of trade-down. And just wondering, do you not track consumers longitudinally over time to measure trade-down and what consumers are doing? And is private-label market share really the best metric that we have to track this?

我想，只是為了補充這個問題。令我驚訝的是，自有品牌的市佔率是你所指出的衡量標準，以證明缺乏折價的合理性。只是想知道，您是否不隨著時間的推移縱向追蹤消費者以衡量折扣以及消費者在做什麼？自有品牌市佔率真的是我們追蹤這個問題的最佳指標嗎？

Fair questions, Callum. On the -- look, I'd be worried that the phenomena you're describing would be a driver if, a, the volume in the market wasn't growing, which it is, and if we weren't able to grow volume share but only grow value share. So I don't think that's the case. We're growing volume share. The market is growing in terms of volume. And one of the hypothesis I would have for you is that a lot of our consumers are actually not switching with private label heavily at this point in time.

公平的問題，卡勒姆。就——看，我擔心你所描述的現象會成為一個驅動因素，如果，a，市場的數量沒有增長（事實確實如此），並且如果我們無法增長數量分享，但只會增加價值份額。所以我認為情況並非如此。我們正在增加銷量份額。市場數量不斷增長。我為您提出的假設之一是，我們的許多消費者實際上目前並沒有大量轉向自有品牌。

On the metrics that we use, look, private-label share is the most visible metric that we can point to, and it's also visible to you. So it's one that is convenient to use and objectively verifiable. So that's why we're using it. Internally, obviously, we use a lot more detail. We track exact consumption by tier, by product form, by retail channel. We check our share versus competitor share at that level of detail. So there's a lot more internal discussion on do we see trade-down within our portfolio, do we see trade-down across our portfolio with competitors to lower tiers? But private label is just the most visible and robust measure that we can point to that is visible to you guys.

從我們使用的指標來看，自有品牌份額是我們可以指出的最明顯的指標，而且您也可以看到。所以它是一種使用方便、客觀可驗證的方法。這就是我們使用它的原因。顯然，在內部，我們使用了更多細節。我們按層級、產品形式、零售通路追蹤準確的消費狀況。我們會在該詳細程度上檢查我們的份額與競爭對手的份額。因此，有更多的內部討論是關於我們是否看到我們的投資組合中的折價，我們是否看到我們的投資組合中與競爭對手的折價較低？但自有品牌只是我們可以指出的對你們來說可見的最明顯和最有力的衡量標準。

The next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

I wanted to go back to the U.S. market. The 5% consumption level was pretty strong and we see it in tracked channel data. Are you expecting from a reported standpoint to get closer to that level in Q4 as you don't have the negative impacts from the inventory? Or what are the puts and takes in Q4?

我想回到美國市場。 5% 的消費水準相當強勁，我們在追蹤的通路數據中看到了這一點。從報告的角度來看，您是否預計第四季度將接近該水平，因為您沒有受到庫存的負面影響？或者第四季的賣出和賣出是多少？

And then just specifically on laundry in the U.S., your largest category. There was some recalls in Tide PODS recently. So maybe you could talk about any potential impact from that in Q4. And then longer term, you announced the innovation on Tide evo. So maybe some color on the rollout of that brand and the product and your expectations.

然後專門針對美國的洗衣業，這是你們最大的類別。最近 Tide PODS 發生了一些召回事件。所以也許你可以談談第四季的任何潛在影響。從長遠來看，你們宣布了 Tide evo 的創新。因此，也許該品牌和產品的推出以及您的期望有一些色彩。

Yes. Filippo, you're right. We hope U.S. market growth continues in the high 4s, low 5s. And I think the trend line is pointing in that direction. And unless we see any major inventory reduction, I would expect us to continue to trend in that same direction. We are driving market growth in most of our categories in the U.S., and that should mathematically then result in stable to increasing shares both on the volume and value side. And that's certainly the objective the team has on all the U.S. businesses.

是的。菲利波，你說得對。我們希望美國市場的成長繼續保持在高 4 和低 5 之間。我認為趨勢線正指向這個方向。除非我們看到庫存大幅減少，否則我預計我們將繼續朝同一方向發展。我們正在推動美國大多數類別的市場成長，從數學上講，這應該會導致數量和價值方面的份額穩定增長。這當然是該團隊對所有美國企業的目標。

The laundry recall, it was a very limited recall on a packaging defect on one SKU on Tide PODS. Out of an abundance of caution, the team decided to recall the product. It's no impact or very limited impact actually on the quarter or the fiscal year. And again, that product itself is safe, so no issue with the product. It was a small packaging defect, but in any case, the team decided to go ahead and recall.

此次洗衣召回是一次非常有限的召回，涉及汰漬 PODS 上一個 SKU 的包裝缺陷。出於謹慎考慮，團隊決定召回該產品。實際上對本季或本財年沒有影響或影響非常有限。再說一次，該產品本身是安全的，所以該產品沒有問題。這是一個小包裝缺陷，但無論如何，團隊決定繼續召回。

We're very excited about the evo innovation. The fiber-spinning innovation has been one of our core developments, so seeing it in market is exciting. But it's very early. So we run these test markets to validate product-market fit, validate the commercial execution, validate everything from packaging color to packaging sizes. And it will take us a few months before we have anything of substance. But yes, the innovation is very exciting, but it will take time before it has an impact on overall laundry growth in the U.S.

我們對 evo 創新感到非常興奮。纖維紡絲創新一直是我們的核心發展之一，因此在市場上看到它令人興奮。但現在還很早。因此，我們運行這些測試市場來驗證產品與市場的契合度，驗證商業執行，並驗證從包裝顏色到包裝尺寸的所有內容。我們需要幾個月的時間才能獲得任何實質成果。但是，是的，這項創新非常令人興奮，但它對美國整體洗衣業成長產生影響還需要時間。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Two follow-ups. First, can you talk a little bit more about Europe? Very strong market and your results have been extremely strong. So perhaps what's driving the strength of the market, your market share gains? And is this something that you think can flow through into 2025?

兩個後續。首先，您能多談談歐洲嗎？市場非常強勁，你們的業績也非常強勁。那麼，也許是什麼推動了市場的強勁，您的市場佔有率的成長呢？您認為這會持續到 2025 年嗎？

And then second, kind of coming back on China. There's been significant channel shifts that we're noticing, certainly in the beauty area. It's 50% to 60% online with TikTok being half of that. So kind of, number one, wondering to what extent you're adapting to that and are prepared to adapt to that shift? And then second, for the non-Beauty business, do you also see the online business moving to TikTok as well? And maybe talk about your share online and off-line in those categories, the main categories in China.

其次，有點回到中國。我們注意到，通路發生了重大轉變，尤其是在美容領域。 50% 到 60% 是在線的，其中 TikTok 佔一半。那麼，第一，想知道你在多大程度上適應了這種轉變並準備好適應這種轉變？其次，對於非美容業務，您是否也看到線上業務也轉向 TikTok？也許可以談談您在這些類別（中國的主要類別）中線上和線下的份額。

Thanks, Robert. Indeed, Europe results have been outstanding. Aggregate Europe, between Europe Focus Markets and Europe Enterprise Markets, we now have, I think, 12 consecutive quarters of 5% or higher growth, which is outstanding.

謝謝，羅伯特。事實上，歐洲的成績非常優異。我認為，歐洲總體，在歐洲重點市場和歐洲企業市場之間，我們現在已經連續 12 個季度實現 5% 或更高的成長，這是非常出色的。

I think the strength of the business, maybe let me focus on the Focus Markets here for a minute. The strength of the business has been consistent because of the execution of the team. Strong innovation pushed out over an extended period of time as we were taking pricing. Very strong productivity work in the region across every part of the P&L to limit the amount of pricing we needed to take. But brilliant execution of the pricing that was taken, respecting key price points, respecting retailers' and consumer constraints. And I think that's playing out.

我認為業務的實力也許讓我先專注在這裡的焦點市場。業務的實力因團隊的執行力而得以始終如一。當我們定價時，強大的創新在很長一段時間內推出。該地區損益表各個部分的生產力都非常強大，以限制我們需要採取的定價。但所採取的定價執行得非常出色，尊重關鍵價格點，尊重零售商和消費者的限制。我認為這正在發揮作用。

We've also invested very strongly, probably more than ever, in terms of marketing support of those innovations in the Focus Markets. And we are building the same digital capability in terms of consumer targeting to become more effective and efficient with our spend in Europe that we've used in the U.S. for an extended period of time. So all of those would be contributors to growth.

我們也對重點市場的這些創新的行銷支援進行了非常大力的投資，可能比以往任何時候都多。我們正在消費者定位方面建立相同的數位能力，以使我們在歐洲的支出變得更加有效和高效，就像我們在美國使用了很長一段時間一樣。因此，所有這些都將有助於成長。

On the Enterprise Markets side, I would caution it's not without headwinds. Russia continues to be a headwind that we called out with a reduced portfolio and very little support of the business. We have work to do in Turkey as Turkey recovers from the heavy inflation-based pricing and some of the Middle East outflow of tensions. So it's not without headwinds, but I think the underlying performance of the European business continues to be strong and it's built the right way.

在企業市場方面，我要提醒大家的是，這並非沒有阻力。俄羅斯仍然是一個逆風，我們稱之為投資組合減少和業務支持很少。隨著土耳其從嚴重的通膨定價和部分中東緊張局勢中恢復過來，我們在土耳其還有工作要做。因此，這並非沒有阻力，但我認為歐洲業務的基本表現仍然強勁，而且是以正確的方式建立的。

You're correct on the channel shifting in China. Obviously, Douyin is a significant driver, most heavily probably in Beauty. We've been talking about this before. What we want to make sure is we keep a healthy balance between building brand equity versus simply low-funnel transactional execution via KOLs that only make sales via deep discounting but don't do anything for the brand equity or for our superiority messaging. That's what we're doing.

你對中國通路轉變的看法是正確的。顯然，抖音是重要的推動力，尤其是在美妝領域。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。我們想要確保的是，我們在建立品牌資產與透過 KOL 進行低漏斗交易執行之間保持健康的平衡，KOL 只透過大幅折扣進行銷售，但對品牌資產或我們的優勢訊息沒有做任何事情。這就是我們正在做的事情。

We're building brand houses on Douyin. We're making sure that we have a good balance between transactional communication and equity communication. We have innovation that is launching on Douyin first. Head & Shoulders Premium would be a good example of most recent innovations. So we're playing in the channel, but we're playing with a sense of value creation and balance between top line growth and profitability.

我們正在抖音上建立品牌公司。我們確保在交易溝通和股權溝通之間取得良好的平衡。我們的創新首先在抖音上推出。海飛絲高級版將是最新創新的一個很好的例子。因此，我們在通路中發揮作用，但我們在玩價值創造意識以及營收成長和獲利能力之間的平衡。

The channel is relevant for other parts of the business as well, and the same principles apply. We are careful to ensure that we are balanced across top line and bottom line, and we protect and grow underlying brand equity.

該管道也與業務的其他部分相關，並且適用相同的原則。我們小心翼翼地確保營收和利潤的平衡，並保護和發展潛在的品牌資產。

The next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

Maybe one quick housekeeping. Can you maybe just help us understand how much of the stronger earnings guidance was related to the improvement in FX? Andre, I know the FX guidance became more favorable. But I think you also mentioned you're reducing your exposure due to the divestiture in Argentina. So I just want to make sure I understand the moving pieces as it relates to the FX impact on the earnings range.

也許是一次快速的家事服務。您能否幫助我們了解更強勁的獲利指引有多少與外匯的改善有關？安德烈，我知道外匯指引變得更有利。但我想您也提到由於阿根廷的剝離，您正在減少風險敞口。因此，我只是想確保我了解變化的部分，因為它與外匯對收益範圍的影響有關。

And then just a quick follow-up on SK-II in China. I think month-to-month improvement was mentioned. So just any color you can provide on the exit rate relative to the 30% decline in the quarter, I think, would be pretty helpful.

然後是 SK-II 在中國的快速後續。我認為提到了逐月改進。因此，我認為，您可以提供相對於本季 30% 下降的退出率的任何顏色，都會非常有幫助。

Okay. Peter, yes, the foreign exchange help is an interesting one because the $400 million reduction, as we said, was all related to Argentina. And we had assumed in the previous guidance that whatever exposure is generated in Argentina will have to be offset with pricing within the fiscal year in Argentina. So as the assumption changes and the business size reduces, the net outcome to the P&L is very limited.

好的。彼得，是的，外匯援助是一項有趣的援助，因為正如我們所說，減少的 4 億美元都與阿根廷有關。我們在先前的指導中假設，無論阿根廷產生什麼風險，都必須透過阿根廷財政年度內的定價來抵銷。因此，隨著假設的變化和業務規模的縮小，損益表的淨結果非常有限。

So yes, we saw a technical reduction because of the improving peso and the lower size of -- smaller size of the business. The net effect to the P&L will be very limited because of the underlying assumption we made from the very beginning, that we would offset that impact of FX via pricing in the market.

所以，是的，由於比索的提高和業務規模的縮小，我們看到了技術上的縮減。對損益表的淨影響將非常有限，因為我們從一開始就做出了基本假設，即我們將透過市場定價來抵消外匯的影響。

SK-II in China is, I think, bottoming out in terms of the shipment pattern. As we said, we are about 30% down in the quarter. It's very encouraging to see some positive signs in terms of consumer sentiment as the team continues to innovate, the team drives very strong communication on the core benefit base of the SK-II proposition, focusing on PITERA as a core ingredient and reason to believe. We are leveraging -- continue to leveraging the core consumer in China, very loyal to the brand, to amplify that messaging, and it's starting to resonate. So we see positive signs.

我認為，從出貨模式來看，SK-II 在中國正在觸底反彈。正如我們所說，本季我們的業績下降了約 30%。隨著團隊不斷創新，團隊就SK-II 主張的核心利益基礎進行強有力的溝通，重點關注PITERA 作為核心成分和值得相信的理由，看到消費者情緒方面出現一些積極跡像是非常令人鼓舞的。我們正在利用——繼續利用對品牌非常忠誠的中國核心消費者來放大這一訊息，並且它開始引起共鳴。所以我們看到了積極的跡象。

It will take time until that translates into shipments though. I think retailers are sitting on a little bit of stock. And I think they will be hesitant to order until they see good signs of consumption increases. So I would caution, I don't expect this to be a fast recovery. This will take some time.

不過，轉換為出貨量還需要一段時間。我認為零售商持有少量庫存。我認為，在看到消費成長的良好跡象之前，他們會猶豫是否要訂購。所以我要提醒大家，我不認為復甦會很快。這需要一些時間。

Maybe last point on SK-II. Outside of China, the business is doing very well. We're growing double digits in Japan. So I think the fundamental proposition is healthy, we just have to sort through this period in China. And again worth pointing, I think in the right direction, but it will take time.

也許是關於 SK-II 的最後一點。在中國以外的地區，該業務做得非常好。我們在日本的成長達到了兩位數。所以我認為基本命題是健康的，我們只需要理清中國的這段時期。再次值得指出的是，我認為方向是正確的，但這需要時間。

The next question comes from Nick Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克莫迪。

Just a few kind of housekeeping items. Andre, I just wanted to confirm that the destocking in the U.S. was isolated to the Consumer Health business.

只是一些家務用品。安德烈，我只是想確認美國的去庫存是針對消費者健康業務的。

And then the other 2 questions I had, the Tide evo, the technology that you've developed, would that be applicable to other brands and other cleaning solutions within the P&G portfolio?

然後我提出的另外兩個問題，你們開發的 Tide evo 技術，是否適用於寶潔產品組合中的其他品牌和其他清潔解決方案？

And then just the final thing is, I think there's a lot of -- the theme I'm hearing just broadly from speaking to investors around this call is the delta between obviously how P&G is performing and how everyone else is performing. And I think the competition that you're dealing with, I think, generally are struggling for volume growth.

最後一件事是，我認為有很多——我在圍繞這次電話會議與投資者交談時廣泛聽到的主題是寶潔公司的表現與其他公司的表現之間的差異。我認為你所面臨的競爭通常都在努力實現銷售成長。

So as you think about guidance, how much have you contemplated a step-up in competitive spend, right? I understand the fact that you guys have the momentum and you're gaining share and the innovation is working. But I just wanted to get an understanding of kind of how measured your guidance is in relation to potential competitive response.

因此，當您考慮指導時，您有多少考慮增加競爭性支出，對嗎？我知道你們有動力，正在獲得份額，而且創新正在發揮作用。但我只是想了解您的指導與潛在競爭反應的關係如何衡量。

All right. Thanks for the question, Nick. Destocking in the U.S. was broadly Personal Health Care-related. That was the biggest effect. Again, an okay season, but significantly weaker than last year and generally an industry-wide recovery of the supply chain. So if you're a retailer, you no longer see the need to hold safety stock. You're convinced that when the season restarts and you need product, you can order and you get it.

好的。謝謝你的提問，尼克。美國的去庫存主要與個人醫療保健有關。這是最大的影響。再次，這是一個不錯的季節，但明顯弱於去年，而且整個行業的供應鏈總體上有所復甦。因此，如果您是零售商，您就不再需要持有安全庫存。您確信，當季節重新開始並且您需要產品時，您可以訂購並獲得它。

There was some of that also in the Tampax business, in the tampon business, as we have stabilized the supply chain there, similar dynamic. And there was a little bit of destocking in Hair Care because we had upstocking in the base. But the majority of it, to keep it simple, is Health Care.

坦帕克斯業務、衛生棉條業務也有一些這樣的情況，因為我們穩定了那裡的供應鏈，類似的動態。護髮產品的庫存減少，因為我們在基地增加了庫存。但簡單來說，其中大部分是醫療保健。

Indeed, the evo technology, so the fiber-spinning technology, is a technology that can be applied in broader context. We've applied it to facial cleaning in Beauty, and there are many other applications. This is one of our platform technologies. If you think about it, the ability to spin chemistry into a fiber and avoid water as a carrying agent has so many efficiencies and advantages in the chemistry that we can put together and obviously in the logistics and cost side that, yes, we would want to apply it, but step by step. We got to make sure the evo's proposition works well, and that's why we're in test market, and we talked about this earlier.

事實上，evo技術，即纖維紡絲技術，是一種可以在更廣泛的背景下應用的技術。我們已經將它應用在美容方面的臉部清潔上，還有很多其他的應用。這是我們的平台技術之一。如果您考慮一下，將化學物質紡成纖維並避免水作為承載劑的能力在化學方面具有如此多的效率和優勢，我們可以將它們放在一起，顯然在物流和成本方面，是的，我們希望去應用它，但要一步一步。我們必須確保 evo 的主張運作良好，這就是我們進入測試市場的原因，我們之前討論過這一點。

Competitive spending, if done the right way, would be a good thing. If we see competitors innovate, if we can see competitors communicate in market-constructive ways, drive incremental spend in marketing dollars, that's a good thing. So we hope to see that.

如果以正確的方式進行，有競爭力的支出將是一件好事。如果我們看到競爭對手進行創新，如果我們可以看到競爭對手以有市場建設性的方式進行溝通，推動行銷資金的增量支出，那是一件好事。所以我們希望看到這一點。

On the promotion side, we don't really see a dynamic that would point to anyone escalating promotion. We see stable depth of promotion in Europe, a little bit of increase in frequency. In the U.S., we are operating at about 85% business sold on deal, which -- 85% indexed versus pre-COVID level, sorry. That's about 29% of business volumes sold on deal. And we see competitors at similar ranges, so -- and it's stable over a period of time.

在促銷方面，我們並沒有真正看到任何人會升級促銷的動態。我們看到歐洲的推廣深度穩定，頻率略有增加。在美國，我們的業務大約有 85% 是透過交易出售的，抱歉，與新冠疫情爆發前的水平相比，85% 是指數化的。這約佔交易銷售額的 29%。我們看到競爭對手的水平相似，因此，它在一段時間內保持穩定。

So again, if we see market-constructive spend, great. Nobody seems to have an interest in heavy promotion at this point in time.

再說一次，如果我們看到市場建設性支出，那就太好了。目前似乎沒有人對大規模促銷感興趣。

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

I guess as we get towards the end of the call, putting a lot of it together, lots of information on volume, on organic revenue, also why it should get better sequentially. I think putting that in the context of what your earnings have grown year-to-date versus the guidance of 10% to 11% implying almost flat 4Q, I think that suggests a very significant step-up in reinvestment or maybe in something else. So can you maybe just try to reconcile each of those pieces?

我想當我們在電話會議即將結束時，將很多信息放在一起，大量關於數量、有機收入的信息，以及為什麼它應該依次變得更好。我認為，考慮到今年迄今為止的獲利成長與 10% 至 11% 的指導（意味著第四季度幾乎持平），我認為這表明再投資或其他方面的成長非常顯著。那麼你能嘗試協調每一部分嗎？

Yes. Kaumil, the main driver here is the profile of some of the tailwinds and headwinds. I don't expect a major step-up in spend quarter-over-quarter. I think we will sustain good investment levels. And again, as I said, we will be ROI-driven. So it's up to the teams. But I don't expect a step up as the main explanation of why Q4 looks different in terms of EPS growth.

是的。考米爾，這裡的主要驅動力是一些順風和逆風的概況。我預計支出不會較上季大幅增加。我認為我們將維持良好的投資水準。正如我所說，我們將再次以投資回報率為導向。所以這取決於團隊。但我並不認為成長是第四季每股收益成長看起來不同的主要解釋。

The main driver is a lot of the commodity help has been booked in the front half of the year. And if anything, there's a little commodity hurt coming in Q4. As we talked, oil potentially as reflected in diesel rates, and maybe some of the pulp impact will hit this fiscal year.

主要驅動力是上半年大量的商品幫助已經被預訂。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是第四季大宗商品會受到一些影響。正如我們所說，石油可能會反映在柴油費率中，也許一些紙漿影響將影響本財年。

And then the foreign exchange rate. So forget about Argentina, I think we've discussed that. But the balance of the foreign exchange rate will mostly hit in the second half, and that's heavily in quarter 4.

然後是外匯匯率。所以忘記阿根廷吧，我想我們已經討論過這個問題了。但外匯匯率的平衡主要會在下半年出現，尤其是在第四季。

And then the last element is just base period. So Q4 last year was very strong because of a different profile. This profile looks a little bit different for the reasons I explained. But don't expect a material change in spend behavior. It's really more of the macro drivers that impact the profile.

最後一個元素就是基期。由於不同的情況，去年第四季的表現非常強勁。由於我解釋的原因，此配置文件看起來有點不同。但不要指望消費行為會發生重大變化。實際上更多的是影響形象的宏觀驅動因素。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

One follow-up on SK-II. Last quarter, you talked about your research suggesting that brand sentiment was improving. I didn't hear that. I guess, is that still the case? Are you still doing more work on what's going on, I guess, specific to what's happening in China?

SK-II 的後續產品。上個季度，您談到了您的研究表明品牌情緒正在改善。我沒聽到。我想，現在還是這樣嗎？我想，您是否仍在對正在發生的事情做更多的工作，特別是針對中國正在發生的事情？

And then more broadly, reinvestment has just been considerable this year, obviously, because gross margin has expanded or at least some part against gross margins have expanded so much and allows you to do that. As you think about the setup from here, commodities unknown, but probably not as big of a tailwind, net-net, and pricing clearly not as big of a tailwind as it's been.

更廣泛地說，今年的再投資顯然相當可觀，因為毛利率已經擴大，或者至少部分毛利率已經擴大了很多，並且允許你這樣做。當你從這裡考慮設置時，商品未知，但可能沒有那麼大的順風，淨淨，並且定價顯然沒有像以前那麼大的順風。

So as you go into next year and you presumably have a little less gross margin to play with, how do you think about what the reinvestment levels look like? And then what is the contribution? I mean, I know it's a squishy question. But how much contribution do you think you've had from 300-plus basis points of reinvestment back in the business to drive share volume, value, et cetera?

因此，當您進入明年時，您的毛利率可能會下降，您如何看待再投資水平？那麼貢獻是什麼？我的意思是，我知道這是一個棘手的問題。但是，您認為您從 300 多個基點的再投資中獲得了多少貢獻，以推動股票數量、價值等？

Yes. Mark, on SK-II, I think the brand sentiment has been sequentially improving. The work the team is doing on innovation, on communication and credentialing, I think, is resonating with the consumer. And as the overall sentiment towards Japanese brands is improving, we are also getting a bit more bold in the breadth of the communication, the reach and frequency that we use. So I think all of that is pointing in the right direction.

是的。 Mark，就SK-II而言，我認為品牌情緒一直在持續改善。我認為，團隊在創新、溝通和認證方面所做的工作正在引起消費者的共鳴。隨著人們對日本品牌的整體情緒正在改善，我們在溝通的廣度、覆蓋範圍和使用頻率方面也變得更加大膽。所以我認為所有這些都指向正確的方向。

As I mentioned, I think the order behavior might lag. So we might see improvement in consumption before we see improvement in shipment. So that's why I was cautioning that, while we see consumer sentiment improving, that first has to translate in increased consumption, and that then has to translate into increased orders and shipments, and that will take some time. So the team is doing the right work, and I'm glad they're actually doing it in a very balanced way to ensure that we're rebuilding this brand for the long term.

正如我所提到的，我認為訂單行為可能會滯後。因此，在出貨量改善之前，我們可能會先看到消費量的改善。因此，我警告說，雖然我們看到消費者情緒有所改善，但首先必須轉化為消費增加，然後必須轉化為訂單和發貨量增加，而這需要一些時間。因此，團隊正在做正確的工作，我很高興他們實際上以非常平衡的方式做這件事，以確保我們長期重建這個品牌。

In terms of spending, I think this will really be done business by business, geography by geography, so to give you an answer. The only thing I'd point to is we are planning on significant productivity to continue in the marketing spend area. So that in and of itself would be somewhere between $400 million and $500 million of productivity in the space. That is always up for discussion. Do you reinvest or do you flow it through? And it will really depend on the level of innovation we are able to drive. More innovation means more spend and hopefully better return.

在支出方面，我認為這確實會根據業務、地理來進行，所以給你一個答案。我唯一要指出的是，我們計劃在行銷支出領域繼續提高生產力。因此，該領域的生產力本身就在 4 億至 5 億美元之間。這始終是有待討論的。您會進行再投資還是將其流轉？這實際上取決於我們能夠推動的創新水平。更多的創新意味著更多的支出，並有望帶來更好的回報。

And I'll leave it at that in terms of the ROI. I think I've answered the question before. It's there in the aggregate discipline of the categories. But I wouldn't want to go into more detail. I think it's really down to the category country combinations at which we measure it and at which those decisions are made.

就投資回報率而言，我將就此保留。我想我之前已經回答過這個問題了。它存在於類別的總體規則中。但我不想透露更多細節。我認為這實際上取決於我們衡量它並做出這些決定的類別國家組合。

Today's final question comes from Brett Cooper with Consumer Edge Research.

今天的最後一個問題來自消費者邊緣研究中心的布雷特庫柏。

I wanted to follow-on to Nik's question. Over the last 2 quarters, some of your peers or competitors have talked about elevating their rate of growth. And you touched on this a bit before, but I was hoping you could talk about the opportunity or capacity for category growth rates to elevate further if more players are deploying a strategy than you execute. And how do we see that come through with respect to volume, price, or mix? And then just finally, if there's anything that you need to do with respect to elevating innovation or do anything in light of what may be a more competitive environment on that front.

我想跟進尼克的問題。在過去的兩個季度中，您的一些同行或競爭對手已經談到了提高成長率。您之前曾談到過這一點，但我希望您能談談如果部署策略的玩家多於您執行策略的玩家，類別成長率進一步提升的機會或能力。我們如何看待銷售量、價格或組合上的表現？最後，如果您需要在提升創新方面做任何事情，或者根據這方面可能更具競爭性的環境做任何事情。

Yes. Thanks for the question. Look, I think if more of our competitors adopt a market-constructive strategy and innovate and spend in that way, that's good for everyone. And if you look at the category development globally, there's still so much opportunity to grow, even in the most developed markets, to grow category penetration in places like fabric enhancers. So that is a big opportunity in many of the markets where we play. The category development index is index 30 or maybe slightly higher. So there's plenty of opportunity to be market-constructive. So that's a good thing.

是的。謝謝你的提問。聽著，我認為如果我們有更多的競爭對手採取市場建設性策略並以這種方式進行創新和支出，這對每個人都有好處。如果你看看全球品類的發展，即使在最發達的市場，仍然有很多成長的機會，以提高織物增強劑等領域的品類滲透率。因此，這在我們參與的許多市場中是一個巨大的機會。品類發展指數為30或稍高。因此，有很多機會對市場具有建設性。所以這是一件好事。

We are constantly looking at our superiority and our innovation that's inherent in the strategy of Irresistible Superiority. So we've talked about resetting the bar. We've done that with exactly that in mind: What will it take for us to continue to be market-constructive, win consumers for the next 5 years, instead of just looking back at the success we had over the past 5 years. So that is part of the growth model and part of how the organization operates.

我們不斷審視我們的優勢和創新，這是不可抗拒的優勢策略所固有的。所以我們討論了重置標準。我們這樣做時正是考慮到了這一點：我們需要做什麼才能在未來 5 年內繼續保持市場建設性、贏得消費者，而不是只回顧過去 5 年所取得的成功。因此，這是成長模式的一部分，也是組織運作方式的一部分。

All right. Thank you for your time today. If you have additional questions, John, myself, will be available during the day. Thank you for your time and thank you for your interest.

好的。感謝您今天抽出時間。如果您還有其他問題，約翰本人將在白天與您聯繫。感謝您的寶貴時間並感謝您的興趣。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。