寶潔 (PG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。此次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉交給寶潔公司財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家，早安。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席、總裁兼執行長 Jon Moeller 和投資者關係高級副總裁 John Chevalier。

I will start with an overview of results for fiscal year '24 and for the fourth quarter. Jon will add perspective on our strategic focus areas and capabilities and will close with guidance for fiscal '25 and then take your questions.

我將首先概述 24 財年和第四季的業績。 Jon 將補充我們對策略重點領域和能力的看法，並以 25 財年的指導作為結束語，然後回答大家的問題。

Fiscal '24 was another very strong year. Execution of our integrated strategies enabled the company to meet or exceed going-in guidance ranges for organic sales growth, core EPS growth, cash productivity and cash return to share owners, all this despite significant market level headwinds that were largely unknown when we gave our initial outlook for the year.

24 財年又是非常強勁的一年。執行我們的綜合策略使公司能夠達到或超過有機銷售成長、核心每股收益成長、現金生產力和股東現金回報的指導範圍，儘管市場層面存在重大阻力，但當我們給出我們的預測時，這些阻力在很大程度上是未知的。

Organic sales growth for the fiscal year was 4%, our sixth consecutive year of 4% or better organic growth against a strong 7% comp in the prior year and in more challenging market conditions. Growth was broad-based across business units with 8 of 10 product categories growing organic sales. Home care, hair care and grooming were up high single digits, oral care and feminine care up mid singles. Fabric care, family care, and personal healthcare grew low single digits. Skin and personal care and baby care were down low singles.

本財年的有機銷售成長率為 4%，這是我們連續第六年實現 4% 或更好的有機成長，而前一年的有機成長率為 7%，而且市場條件更具挑戰性。各業務部門均廣泛成長，10 個產品類別中有 8 個類別的有機銷售額將成長。家庭護理、頭髮護理和美容增長了高個位數，口腔護理和女性護理增長了中個位數。織物護理、家庭護理和個人保健增長了低個位數。皮膚和個人護理以及嬰兒護理單品的跌幅較低。

Focus markets grew 4% for the year with North America up 5% and Europe focus markets up 8%. Greater China organic sales were down 9% versus the prior year, driven by soft market conditions and brand-specific headwinds on SK-II. Enterprise markets were up 6%, led by Latin America with 15% organic sales growth. Ecommerce sales increased 9%, now representing 18% of the total company.

今年重點市場成長了 4%，其中北美成長了 5%，歐洲重點市場成長了 8%。受疲軟的市場狀況和 SK-II 品牌特定不利因素的推動，大中華區有機銷售額較上年下降 9%。企業市場成長了 6%，其中拉丁美洲的有機銷售額成長了 15%。電子商務銷售額成長 9%，目前占公司總銷售額的 18%。

Our strategy focused on driving market growth continues to drive share growth for P&G. All channel market value sales in the US categories in which we compete grew around 5% in fiscal '24. P&G consumption grew ahead of our fair share of category growth, driving modest value and volume share growth for the year. We grew global aggregate value share. 30 of 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, this share growth is broad-based. 6 of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year.

我們專注於推動市場成長的策略繼續推動寶潔公司的份額成長。 2024 財年，我們參與競爭的美國類別的所有通路市場銷售額成長了 5% 左右。寶潔的消費成長超過了我們在品類成長中的公平份額，推動了今年價值和銷售份額的適度成長。我們增加了全球總價值份額。 50 個類別的國家組合中有 30 個在本年度保持或增加了份額。重要的是，這種份額增長是廣泛的。過去一年，10 個產品類別中有 6 個類別的全球份額有所增長。

Core earnings per share were $6.59, up 12% for the year. Core gross margin improved 360 basis points and core operating margin increased 170 basis points. Over $2.3 billion of productivity improvements were enabled by a significant increase in investment in superior products, packages and brand communication to drive market growth. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was up 16% and core operating margin increased 250 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 105%.

每股核心收益為 6.59 美元，全年增長 12%。核心毛利率提高了 360 個基點，核心營業利潤率提高了 170 個基點。透過大幅增加對優質產品、包裝和品牌傳播的投資來推動市場成長，生產力提高了超過 23 億美元。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長 16%，核心營業利潤率成長 250 個基點。調整後自由現金流生產力為 105%。

We increased our dividend by 7% and returned over $14 billion of value to share owners, $9.3 billion in dividends, and $5 billion in share repurchase.

我們將股息提高了 7%，並向股東返還了超過 140 億美元的價值，其中包括 93 億美元的股息和 50 億美元的股票回購。

Moving onto fourth quarter results, organic sales rounded down to 2%, volume was up 2%, solid sequential progress. Pricing was up 1% and mix was in line with prior year. Growth continues to be broad-based across categories and regions. 9 of 10 product categories grew or held organic sales in the quarter. Home care, hair care, grooming and oral care were each up high single digits, feminine care up low singles, skin and personal care, fabric care, personal health care and family care were each in line with prior year, and baby care was down mid singles.

進入第四季業績，有機銷售額下降至 2%，銷量成長 2%，環比進展穩健。定價上漲 1%，結構與去年持平。各個類別和地區的成長依然廣泛。本季 10 個產品類別中有 9 個類別的有機銷售額有所成長或維持不變。居家護理、頭髮護理、美容和口腔護理均出現高個位數增長，女性護理出現低位個位數增長，皮膚和個人護理、織物護理、個人保健和家庭護理均與上年持平，嬰兒護理則有所下降中期單打。

Five of seven regions grew organic sales with focus markets up 2% and enterprise markets up 2% for the quarter. Organic sales in North America grew 4% with four points of volume growth and price mix, in line with prior year. European focus markets organic sales were up 2% against a strong 12% comp in the base period. Volume was up 3%. Price mix was down a point as the region has now fully annualized prior year inflation-driven pricing.

本季七個地區中有五個地區的有機銷售額實現成長，其中重點市場成長 2%，企業市場成長 2%。北美地區的有機銷售額成長了 4%，銷量和價格組合成長了四個百分點，與去年持平。歐洲重點市場的有機銷售額成長了 2%，而基期的同期成長率為 12%。成交量上漲 3%。由於該地區現在已完全年化了上一年通膨驅動的定價，因此價格組合下降了一個百分點。

Latin America organic sales were up 8%, including high singles growth in Brazil. Of note, Argentina's overall contribution to organic sales for the region and the company were lower than the last two quarters due to the divestiture of a portion of the business in March and a notable decline in shipment volume for the remaining categories. As was announced earlier this month, we have divested the remaining portions of our operations in Argentina. As a result, Argentina will be largely removed from our organic sales reporting in fiscal year '25. Select P&G brands will still be available in the market through a distribution and licensing agreement with the new owner of the operations.

拉丁美洲的有機銷售額成長了 8%，其中巴西的單曲銷售額成長強勁。值得注意的是，由於三月份剝離了部分業務以及其餘類別的出貨量顯著下降，阿根廷對該地區和公司有機銷售的總體貢獻低於前兩個季度。正如本月早些時候宣布的那樣，我們已經剝離了在阿根廷業務的剩餘部分。因此，阿根廷將在很大程度上從我們 25 財年的有機銷售報告中刪除。透過與新營運所有者簽訂的分銷和許可協議，部分寶潔品牌仍將在市場上銷售。

Greater China organic sales declined 8%. Underlying market conditions have remained weak, and the 6/18 key consumption period was down sharply versus prior year just as we saw in the 11/11 Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day shopping periods. Also, brand-specific headwinds have continued on SK-II due to its Japanese heritage. We expect general market trends, and the dynamics related to SK-II to improve over time, though it will likely be another quarter or two until we return to growth.

大中華區有機銷售額下降 8%。市場基礎狀況依然疲軟，6/18關鍵消費期較去年大幅下滑，正如我們在11/11農曆新年和情人節購物期所看到的。此外，由於 SK-II 的日本傳統，品牌特有的阻力持續存在。我們預計整體市場趨勢以及與 SK-II 相關的動態將隨著時間的推移而改善，儘管可能還需要一兩個季度才能恢復成長。

Volume trends in some Europe enterprise and Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia have remained soft. We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods. Global aggregate market share was down 30 basis points as we are now annualizing very strong growth in European-focused markets. 25 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter.

一些歐洲企業以及埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其、印尼、馬來西亞和俄羅斯等亞太、中東、非洲國家的銷售趨勢仍然疲軟。我們預期這些不利因素在未來一段時間內將會減弱或呈現年化趨勢。全球總市場份額下降了 30 個基點，因為我們現在預計歐洲市場的年增長率非常強勁。我們排名前 50 名的類別國家組合中有 25 個在本季度保持或增加了份額。

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.40, up 2% versus the prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 6%. Core gross margin increased 140 basis points and core operating margin decreased 100 basis points. Strong productivity improvements of 250 basis points, funding a meaningful increase in marketing investment, currency-neutral core operating margin decreased 60 basis points.

每股核心獲利為 1.40 美元，比上年增長 2%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長了 6%。核心毛利率上升 140 個基點，核心營業利益率下降 100 個基點。生產力強勁提高 250 個基點，行銷投資顯著增加，貨幣中性核心營業利潤率下降 60 個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 148%. We returned nearly $4 billion of cash to share owners this quarter, over $2.4 billion in dividends, and $1.5 billion in share repurchases.

調整後自由現金流生產力為 148%。本季我們向股東返還了近 40 億美元的現金、超過 24 億美元的股息以及 15 億美元的股票回購。

In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year: organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash productivity and cash returns to share owners, strong performance again this year in a challenging economic and geopolitical environment.

總之，我們達到或超越了今年的每一項目標範圍：有機銷售成長、核心每股盈餘成長、自由現金生產力和股東現金回報，今年在充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治環境中再次表現強勁。

With that, I'll pass it over to Jon.

這樣，我會把它交給喬恩。

Thanks Andre. I'll start with a few thoughts on results before discussing the strategy.

謝謝安德烈。在討論策略之前，我將先對結果進行一些思考。

Our team continues to execute the strategy with excellence, enabling strong results over each of the past six years pre-COVID, during COVID, through a historic inflationary and a pricing cycle, and through geopolitical tensions. Organic sales growth of plus five, plus six, plus six, plus seven, plus seven, and plus four over the last fiscal years. Strong earnings growth and growth in operating margin expansion. Very strong cash generation and over $96 billion of cash returned to share owners over those six years.

我們的團隊繼續以卓越的方式執行該策略，在過去六年中，在新冠疫情爆發前、新冠肺炎疫情期間、歷史性的通貨膨脹和定價週期以及地緣政治緊張局勢中，每年都取得了強勁的業績。上一財年的有機銷售額成長為+5、+6、+6、+7、+7 和+4。強勁的獲利成長和營業利潤率擴張。在這六年裡，現金產生能力非常強勁，超過 960 億美元的現金回饋給股東。

For fiscal '24, going-in organic sales guidance was 4% to 5%. We delivered 4% in a very volatile environment. Flat volume for the year with improving trajectory through the year, 2% growth in the fourth quarter. Strong volume growth in North America and Europe focus markets offsetting soft markets in enterprise regions in China. Going-in core EPS guidance of 6% to 9%, delivered 12%. Core gross margin at a 17-year high with strong productivity improvement funding strong marketing investments. Going-in cash productivity outlook of 90%, delivered 105% which enabled a 7% dividend increase, the 68th consecutive year of increase and the 134th consecutive year paying a dividend.

24 財年，有機銷售指引值為 4% 至 5%。我們在非常不穩定的環境中實現了 4% 的業績。全年銷量持平，但全年軌跡有所改善，第四季成長 2%。北美和歐洲重點市場銷售的強勁成長抵消了中國企業地區市場的疲軟。核心每股盈餘指引值為 6% 至 9%，實際交付率為 12%。核心毛利率達到 17 年來的最高水平，生產力的大幅提高為強大的行銷投資提供了資金。現金生產力預期為 90%，實際交付率為 105%，股息增加了 7%，這是連續第 68 年增加股息，也是連續第 134 年支付股息。

As Andre said, strong results in a challenging environment. To be very clear, there's still more work to do to continue improving areas in our control, which will be needed to offset the headwinds that are largely not in our control. We'll double down on superiority across all five vectors. We'll double down on productivity up and down the P&L and across the balance sheet. We'll double down on enabling our organization to execute our integrated strategy with excellence, to delight consumers and win in the marketplace, to deliver the level of balanced growth and value creation results you and we expect.

正如安德烈所說，在充滿挑戰的環境中取得優異的成績。需要非常明確的是，我們還需要做更多的工作來繼續改進我們控制範圍內的領域，這將需要抵消很大程度上不在我們控制範圍內的不利因素。我們將加倍強調所有五個向量的優勢。我們將在損益表和資產負債表上加倍提高生產力。我們將加倍努力，使我們的組織能夠卓越地執行我們的綜合策略，取悅消費者並贏得市場，實現您和我們所期望的平衡成長和價值創造結果。

Our strategy is dynamic and sustainable. It adapts to the changing needs of consumers, customers and society and is focused on growing markets, creating versus taking business, the most sustainable and typically most profitable way to grow. A focused portfolio of daily use products and categories where performance drives brand choice. The portfolio is performing, delivering broad-based growth across nearly all categories and most geographies.

我們的策略是動態且可持續的。它適應消費者、顧客和社會不斷變化的需求，專注於不斷增長的市場，創造而不是搶奪業務，這是最可持續且通常最有利可圖的成長方式。專注於日常使用產品和類別的產品組合，以性能驅動品牌選擇。該投資組合表現良好，在幾乎所有類別和大多數地區實現了廣泛的成長。

As you know, we are active managers of our portfolio. Over the last several years, we have made some targeted additions and subtractions in that portfolio. We have adjusted our operating model in several markets. Each of these moves were made with a focus on long term balanced growth and value creation.

如您所知，我們是投資組合的積極管理者。在過去的幾年裡，我們對該投資組合進行了一些有針對性的增減。我們調整了多個市場的營運模式。這些舉措均著眼於長期平衡成長和價值創造。

The second strategy element, ongoing commitment to and investment in irresistible superiority through innovation across the five vectors of product, package, brand communication, retail execution, and value holistically defined. Leveraging that superiority to delight consumers, grow markets and our share in them, to jointly create value with retail partners. The plans across the businesses are broader and stronger than any time in the recent past as each team works to increase their margin of superiority and consumer delight.

第二個策略要素是透過產品、包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和價值五個方面的創新，持續致力於並投資於不可抗拒的優勢。利用這種優勢取悅消費者，擴大市場並擴大我們的份額，與零售合作夥伴共同創造價值。各個業務部門的計劃比最近任何時候都更廣泛、更強大，因為每個團隊都在努力提高自己的優勢和消費者滿意度。

Superior innovations that are driven by deep consumer insights, communicated to consumers with more effective and efficient marketing programs, executed in stores and online in conjunction with retailer strategies to grow categories and our brands and priced to deliver superior value across each price tier where we compete.

由深入的消費者洞察驅動的卓越創新，透過更有效和高效的營銷計劃與消費者溝通，結合零售商策略在商店和網上執行，以擴大品類和我們的品牌，並定價以在我們競爭的每個價格層提供卓越的價值。

We've talked many times about the superiority driven market growth, share growth, and sales growth we've achieved with products like Tide and Ariel pods, Downy and Lenor laundry scent beads, and Dawn and Fairy easy squeeze and power wash. Two more examples: Oral B IO power toothbrushes deliver superior cleaning and delightful user experience. Superior communication includes the insight that manual brushes leave 50% of plaque behind, but Oral B IO delivers 100% more plaque bacterial removal with its round head and removes plaque in hard-to-reach places. This superior proposition is accelerating power brush trial and adoption, bringing new power brush users into the category, driving high single digit market growth of the power brush category, double digit sales growth for Oral B power, and two points of Oral B value share growth over the past 12 months.

我們已經多次談論我們透過汰漬和 Ariel 莢、Downy 和 Lenor 洗衣香珠以及 Dawn 和 Fairy 輕鬆擠壓和強力清洗等產品實現的優勢驅動的市場增長、份額增長和銷售增長。還有兩個例子：Ou B IO 電動牙刷提供卓越的清潔效果和令人愉悅的使用者體驗。卓越的溝通包括手動刷子會留下 50% 的牙菌斑，但 Oral B IO 憑藉其圓頭可多去除 100% 的牙菌斑，並清除難以觸及的地方的牙菌斑。這個優越主張正在加速電動刷的試用和採用，將新的電動刷用戶引入該類別，推動電動刷類別的個位數市場高增長、歐樂B 動力的兩位數銷售增長以及歐樂B價值份額成長兩個百分點在過去12個月。

Native, our premium personal care brand is delivering superiority across all five vectors and across multiple product forms, including deodorants, body wash, shampoo and conditioners, superior performance with fewer ingredients and irresistible scents. Transparent labeling and clean white packaging, superior retail execution and strong retailer partnerships showcasing the full range of forms and scents. Premium positioning with the category providing superior value for the consumer looking for an offering with more natural ingredients. Native has driven a step change in market value growth for the US deodorants and personal care categories from low singles to mid-teens. Native sales have grown nearly 10 times over the last five years to over $700 million in fiscal '24.

Native，我們的優質個人護理品牌在所有五個載體和多種產品形式上提供卓越的優勢，包括除臭劑、沐浴露、洗髮水和護髮素，以更少的成分和令人難以抗拒的氣味提供卓越的性能。透明標籤和乾淨的白色包裝、卓越的零售執行力和強大的零售商合作夥伴關係展示了各種形式和氣味。此類別的高端定位為尋求更天然成分的產品的消費者提供卓越的價值。 Native 推動了美國除臭劑和個人護理類別的市場價值從低單品增長到中雙位數的階梯式變化。過去五年裡，本土銷售額成長了近 10 倍，24 財年超過 7 億美元。

Third strategy element, productivity improvement in all areas of our operations. In order to fund investments in innovation, brand building and market growth to mitigate cost and currency challenges and to expand margins and generate cash. We delivered very strong cost savings in fiscal '24. Visibility to more savings opportunities is increasing as the businesses continue to build their three-year rolling productivity master plans.

第三個策略要素是提高我們所有營運領域的生產力。為了資助創新、品牌建立和市場成長的投資，以減輕成本和貨幣挑戰，擴大利潤並產生現金。我們在 24 財年實現了非常顯著的成本節約。隨著企業繼續制定三年滾動生產力總體計劃，更多節省機會的可見度正在增加。

We have an objective for gross savings in cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax, enabled by platform programs with global application across categories like supply chains 3.0. We're working in a new way with retailers on the totality of the supply chain end to end versus simply trying to optimize our respective pieces. One example using data and machine learning algorithms to optimize truck scheduling to minimize idle time for drivers. We're also using digital tools to optimize fill rates and for our dynamic routing and sourcing optimization. $200 million to $300 million of savings opportunity across these areas.

我們的目標是透過供應鏈 3.0 等跨類別的全球應用平台計劃，實現稅前總銷售成本節省高達 15 億美元。我們正在以一種新的方式與零售商在整個供應鏈上端到端地合作，而不是簡單地嘗試優化我們各自的部分。一個例子是使用數據和機器學習演算法來優化卡車調度，以最大限度地減少司機的閒置時間。我們還使用數位工具來優化填充率以及動態路由和採購優化。這些領域可節省 2 億至 3 億美元的成本。

We have line of sight to savings from improved marketing productivity. More efficiency and greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste while increasing reach. We're taking targeted steps to reduce overhead as we digitize more of our operations.

我們著眼於透過提高行銷效率來節省開支。更高的效率和更大的效力，避免過度頻率並減少浪費，同時擴大覆蓋範圍。隨著我們更多業務的數位化，我們正在採取有針對性的措施來減少開銷。

Next, constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends, technologies and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage. We continue to be a constructive disruptor of brand building, in-housing more of the media planning and placement activity using our proprietary tools and consumer data to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of our communication. We're disrupting traditional lab-based innovation models to dramatically increase the speed and breadth of discovery. Last but clearly not least, we've designed and continued to refine an empowered, agile and accountable organization, an inclusive and diverse organization, enabling us to better serve an increasingly diverse set of consumers.

接下來，對我們自己和我們的行業進行建設性的顛覆，願意改變、適應和創造新的趨勢、技術和能力，這些將塑造我們行業的未來並擴大我們的競爭優勢。我們繼續成為品牌建立的建設性顛覆者，使用我們的專有工具和消費者數據進行更多的媒體規劃和投放活動，以提高我們溝通的有效性和效率。我們正在顛覆傳統的實驗室為基礎的創新模式，以顯著提高發現的速度和廣度。最後但顯然並非最不重要的一點是，我們設計並繼續完善一個授權、敏捷和負責任的組織，一個包容性和多元化的組織，使我們能夠更好地服務日益多樣化的消費者。

Strong progress across all strategic pillars with significant opportunity ahead of us. No reason to stand still, as illustrated by the four focus areas that we've outlined previously. Number one, supply chain 3.0. It's delivering productivity as you can see in the results. We're also driving improved agility, flexibility, scalability and transparency in a rapidly evolving landscape.

所有戰略支柱都取得了強勁進展，我們面臨重大機會。沒有理由停滯不前，正如我們之前概述的四個重點領域所示。第一，供應鏈3.0。正如您在結果中看到的那樣，它正在提高生產力。我們也在快速發展的環境中推動提高敏捷性、靈活性、可擴展性和透明度。

Optimized sustainable and flexible up and down the supply chain, inclusive of our retail partners. All of this is driving higher quality, increased supply assurance, and higher on-shelf availability of our products, and of course better cash and cost structures. These programs improve superiority with consumers and further strength what is already the top ranked supply chain by our retail partners in third party industry surveys.

優化可持續且靈活的供應鏈上下，包括我們的零售合作夥伴。所有這些都推動了我們產品的更高品質、更高的供應保證和更高的貨架可用性，當然還有更好的現金和成本結構。這些計劃提高了消費者的優勢，並進一步加強了我們的零售合作夥伴在第三方行業調查中排名第一的供應鏈。

Next, environmental sustainability. Superior propositions for consumers, customers and share owners that are more sustainable. Driving sales and profitability while reducing the footprint of our operations, enabling consumers to reduce their footprint and innovating to deliver cross-industry solutions for some of our most pressing challenges.

其次，環境的永續性。為消費者、客戶和股東提供更具永續性的卓越主張。推動銷售和獲利，同時減少我們的營運足跡，使消費者能夠減少足跡，並創新為我們一些最緊迫的挑戰提供跨行業解決方案。

The next focus area is digital acumen, leveraging data and digitization to delight consumers, streamline the supply chain, increase quality, drive productivity, all driving share owner value. One example is the improvement we've delivered in ad copy qualification and media buying with proprietary digital tools we've developed and the digital molecule development work in fabric care. We've built similar tools to drive faster, cheaper and better innovation in perfume, which benefits almost every product category in the company. We're also digitizing more of our back-office work processes to lower costs and drive efficiencies while delivering higher quality output.

下一個重點領域是數位敏銳度，利用數據和數位化取悅消費者、簡化供應鏈、提高品質、提高生產力，進而提高股東價值。一個例子是，我們利用我們開發的專有數位工具以及織物護理領域的數位分子開發工作，在廣告文案資格和媒體購買方面做出了改進。我們建立了類似的工具來推動香水領域更快、更便宜和更好的創新，這幾乎使公司的所有產品類別受益。我們也將更多的後台工作流程數位化，以降低成本並提高效率，同時提供更高品質的產出。

Each of these examples has obvious cost benefits, but they're also driving product and package superiority, superior brand communication to consumers, superior retail execution in store and online, stronger internal controls and jobs that enable people to focus on higher order tasks with greater business impact.

這些例子中的每一個都具有明顯的成本效益，但它們也推動了產品和包裝的優勢、對消費者的卓越品牌傳播、商店和在線的卓越零售執行、更強大的內部控制和工作，使人們能夠以更大的精力專注於更高階的任務。

Last focus area, a superior value equation for all employees, for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent and are best positioned to serve all consumers. These four focus areas are not separate strategies, they simply strengthen our ability to execute our integrated growth strategy. Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption of our organization reinforce and build on each other. We continue to believe there's merit in doubling down on this integrated strategy, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners, fueled by productivity.

最後一個重點領域是為所有員工、所有角色提供卓越的價值方程式，以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才，並處於為所有消費者服務的最佳位置。這四個重點領域並不是單獨的策略，它們只是增強了我們執行綜合成長策略的能力。我們在投資組合、優勢、生產力、對組織的建設性破壞方面的策略選擇相互加強、相互促進。我們仍然相信，加倍努力實施這項綜合策略是有好處的，首先承諾在生產力的推動下，向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供令人難以抗拒的卓越主張。

We remain as confident as ever in our strategy and our ability to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth in value creation to delight consumers, customers, employees, society and share owners. At the end of the day, P&G serves people with a strong desire to improve their lives and the lives of their families. I believe in the capabilities and commitment of P&G people to serve consumers and to do this in the most responsible way, consistent with P&G's values and principles. I'm excited about what lays ahead. Of course we'll continue to face challenges, but the future holds great promise. We have many opportunities ahead to grow markets, grow our business, and create significant value for our owners.

我們對我們的策略和推動市場成長的能力一如既往地充滿信心，並在價值創造方面實現平衡成長，以取悅消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東。歸根究底，寶潔為那些強烈渴望改善自己及其家人生活的人們提供服務。我相信寶潔人有能力和承諾為消費者服務，並以最負責任的方式做到這一點，這符合寶潔的價值觀和原則。我對即將發生的事情感到興奮。當然，我們仍將面臨挑戰，但未來充滿希望。我們有很多機會來發展市場、發展我們的業務並為我們的所有者創造巨大的價值。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for the new year.

至此，我將把它交還給安德烈，概述我們對新一年的指導。

Thank you, Jon. As we enter fiscal '25, we continue to expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging, from input costs, currencies, to consumers, competitors, retailers, and geopolitical dynamics. As Jon said, we'll navigate these challenges with our dynamic integrated strategy guided by consumers every step of the way.

謝謝你，喬恩。當我們進入 25 財年時，我們仍然預期周圍的環境將仍然不穩定且充滿挑戰，從投入成本、貨幣到消費者、競爭對手、零售商和地緣政治動態。正如喬恩所說，我們將透過在消費者的每一步指導下的動態綜合策略來應對這些挑戰。

Our going-in guidance for fiscal '25 is consistent with our long-term algorithm. On the top line, we currently expect the markets in which we compete to deliver local currency sales growth in the range of 3% to 4% for the year. Our objective is to grow organic sales modestly ahead of the underlying growth in these markets. This translates to an organic sales growth guidance range of 3% to 5% for the fiscal year - apologies, I had my mic muted.

我們對 25 財年的實施指導與我們的長期演算法是一致的。在營收方面，我們目前預計我們競爭的市場今年以當地貨幣計算的銷售額將成長 3% 至 4%。我們的目標是在這些市場的潛在成長之前適度成長有機銷售額。這意味著本財年的有機銷售成長指導範圍為 3% 至 5% - 抱歉，我把麥克風靜音了。

On the bottom line, our algorithm calls for mid to high single digit core earnings per share growth. Our core EPS guidance range for fiscal '25 starts the year at 5% to 7% versus fiscal '24 core EPS of $6.59. This guidance equates to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share, $6.98 up 6% at the center of the range. This outlook includes a commodity cost headwind of approximately $300 million after tax and a foreign exchange headwind of approximately $200 million after tax. Combined, foreign exchange and commodities are projected to be a headwind of $0.20 per share for fiscal '25, or a 3 percentage point drag on core EPS growth.

總而言之，我們的演算法要求核心每股收益實現中高個位數成長。我們的 25 財年核心每股收益指引範圍年初為 5% 至 7%，而 24 財年核心每股收益為 6.59 美元。該指引相當於每股 6.91 美元至 7.05 美元的範圍，其中 6.98 美元在該範圍的中心上漲 6%。這項前景包括稅後約 3 億美元的商品成本阻力和稅後約 2 億美元的外匯阻力。外匯和大宗商品合計預計將在 25 財年對每股 0.20 美元構成阻力，即對核心每股收益成長造成 3 個百分點的拖累。

In addition, the prior fiscal year included benefits from several minor brand divestitures, and we expect a somewhat higher tax rate in the new fiscal year. Combined, these are an additional $0.10 to $0.12 headwind to core EPS.

此外，上一財年包括幾個小品牌剝離的好處，我們預期新財年的稅率會有所提高。綜合起來，這些因素對核心每股收益造成了 0.10 美元至 0.12 美元的額外阻力。

We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories. We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $16 billion to $17 billion of cash to share owners this fiscal year.

我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流生產力將為 90%。這包括隨著我們增加幾個類別的產能而增加資本支出。我們預計將支付約 100 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 70 億美元的普通股，並計劃在本財年向股東返還 160 億至 170 億美元的現金。

While we are clear eyed on the challenges in the market and the work needed to continue to drive the business, fiscal '25 guidance for top line, bottom line and cash are each consistent with our long-term algorithm.

雖然我們清楚地看到市場面臨的挑戰以及繼續推動業務所需的工作，但 25 財年的營收、利潤和現金指導均與我們的長期演算法一致。

A few items for you to consider as you build your quarter-to-quarter estimates. On the top line, please keep in mind that the July to September period has the most difficult comp for the year, and many of the market-level challenges we've noted will not fully annualize or improve materially in our estimate until the second half of the year. On the bottom line, the foreign exchange and commodity headwinds skew a bit toward the front half of the year, and the back half comps include the benefit of the tax items and minor brand divestitures I mentioned earlier.

在製定季度預測時需要考慮的一些事項。最重要的是，請記住，七月至九月是今年最困難的時期，我們注意到的許多市場層面的挑戰直到下半年才會完全按年化或在我們的估計中出現實質性改善今年的。從底線來看，外匯和大宗商品的逆風有點偏向今年上半年，下半年的比較包括我之前提到的稅收項目和小品牌剝離的好處。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions, or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

這項展望是基於當前市場成長率估計、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。預計指導範圍內不會出現貨幣大幅疲軟、商品成本增加、地緣政治幹擾、主要供應鏈中斷或商店關閉的情況。

With that, I'll hand it back to Jon for his closing thoughts.

至此，我將把它交還給喬恩，讓他總結一下自己的想法。

We're very pleased with the strong results P&G people have delivered over the last year and inclusive of prior years in a very challenging and volatile environment. The earnings power and value creation potential of the company are as strong as ever. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable, balanced growth is to double down on the strategy, excellent execution of an integrated set of market constructive strategies delivered with a focus on balanced top and bottom-line growth and value creation, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners.

我們對寶潔員工去年以及前幾年在充滿挑戰和動盪的環境中取得的強勁業績感到非常滿意。公司的獲利能力和價值創造潛力一如既往地強勁。我們仍然相信，實現可持續、平衡成長的最佳途徑是加倍努力，出色地執行一套綜合的市場建設性策略，重點關注平衡的頂線和底線成長以及價值創造，致力於為消費者和零售合作夥伴提供令人難以抗拒的卓越主張。

With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）Bryan Spillane，美國銀行。

Thanks Operator, and good morning, everyone. I guess the question that we've fielded a few times this morning, and if you could touch on this a bit, just last couple of quarters, it seems like organic sales have come in maybe slower or lower than you were expecting at the start of each quarter. So maybe if you can touch a little bit on just what's developed, especially in the fourth quarter, maybe different than what you were expecting? And then if you can add to that also, is that true for the market? So at a 2% organic sales for this quarter, are we above, below, or in line with market growth? Thanks.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我想這個問題我們今天早上已經回答過幾次了，如果你能稍微談一下這個問題，就在過去的幾個季度裡，有機銷售的速度似乎比你一開始的預期要慢或低每個季度的。那麼，如果您能稍微談談所發生的事情，尤其是第四季度的情況，也許與您的預期有所不同？如果你還可以補充一點，市場也是嗎？那麼，以本季 2% 的有機銷售額計算，我們是高於、低於還是符合市場成長？謝謝。

Good morning, Bryan. I'll start and then, Jon, I'm sure, will add some perspective as well. I'll start back where we started the prepared remarks. I think we delivered a year where we exceeded on that, all of our in-going guidance metrics.

早安，布萊恩。我會開始，然後喬恩，我相信，也會加入一些觀點。我將從我們準備好的演講開始的地方開始。我認為我們在這一年中超越了所有正在進行的指導指標。

Now the year wasn't linear, as you highlight, and I'd distinguish two parts of the business. 85% percent of the business is performing right in line with expectations and right in line with what we would have expected throughout the year. We have strong growth in North America, 4% in the quarter -- 4% volume growth in the quarter.

現在，正如您所強調的那樣，這一年並不是線性的，我將區分業務的兩個部分。 85% 的業務表現符合預期，也符合我們全年的預期。我們在北美地區成長強勁，本季成長 4%——本季銷量成長 4%。

Europe focus markets growing volumes at 3%, Europe enterprise markets growing volumes at 6%, LA normalizing to about 8% organic sales growth. So that's part of the business where the trajectory is not impacted by significant external events. I think it's moving right along. We expected the normalization and price-mix contribution as we have talked throughout the quarters.

歐洲重點市場銷售成長 3%，歐洲企業市場銷售成長 6%，洛杉磯有機銷售成長正常化至 8% 左右。因此，這是業務軌跡不受重大外部事件影響的部分。我認為它正在向前發展。正如我們在整個季度中所討論的那樣，我們預期正常化和價格組合的貢獻。

If you look at the headwinds that we started to communicate in December, they are really still with us throughout the second half, and that's what's driving the volatility in the top-line results. Those headwinds have accelerated in part. And honestly, in quarter four, some of them developed late in the quarter.

如果你看看我們在 12 月開始溝通的不利因素，你會發現它們在整個下半年仍然伴隨著我們，這就是導致營收結果波動的原因。這些不利因素在某種程度上已經加速。老實說，在第四季度，其中一些是在季度末開發的。

So when you think about China and SK-II, we're heavily impacted by 6/18, a weaker key consumption period in China, and overall market sentiment in China has not improved throughout half two. We had highlighted that we expect the China recovery to be slow and to take time, and I think that's playing out in the results we see in the second half.

因此，當你想到中國和 SK-II 時，我們受到 6/18 年中國關鍵消費疲軟時期的嚴重影響，而中國的整體市場情緒在整個下半年都沒有改善。我們強調，我們預計中國的復甦將緩慢且需要時間，我認為這將在我們下半年看到的結果中反映出來。

The Middle East situation has not really improved, so we continue to see developing stronger impacts on western retailers in some of these markets. And while the team has implemented many interventions, the execution in-store has been limited by some of these headwinds in the Middle East. The last element, we saw a softening in quarter four on the Argentina volumes, driven by the general circumstances in the market, strong high translation pricing in Argentina. So there was a softer contribution on organic sales growth in quarter four than what we'd seen in quarter three.

中東局勢並沒有真正改善，因此我們繼續看到對其中一些市場的西方零售商產生更強烈的影響。儘管團隊實施了許多幹預措施，但店內的執行受到中東的一些不利因素的限制。最後一個因素是，我們看到第四季阿根廷銷售疲軟，原因是市場整體環境以及阿根廷強勁的高翻譯定價。因此，第四季對有機銷售成長的貢獻比第三季弱。

If you step back, though, the performance of the business and the way we set up for '25, I think, is very strong. 85 of the business is developing right in line with what we would have expected. We're growing share in North America. The balance of the markets are growing volume, which is really the shift we needed to see.

不過，如果你退後一步，我認為我們的業務表現以及我們為 25 年所做的準備是非常強勁的。 85 的業務發展符合我們的預期。我們在北美的份額正在增加。市場的平衡在於成交量的成長，這確實是我們需要看到的轉變。

Our gross margin is at record levels. Our productivity is very strong. That has enabled us to remain fully invested from a media perspective and from an innovation perspective. And so going into the year, we feel all the structural elements of the business are strong.

我們的毛利率處於創紀錄的水平。我們的生產力非常強。這使我們能夠從媒體角度和創新角度保持充分投資。因此，進入今年，我們認為業務的所有結構要素都很強勁。

Now what is important to understand, and we mentioned it in the prepared remarks, those headwinds that we have experienced in half two will still be with us in half one of this fiscal year. So we expect this year not to be linear. And we have to accelerate sales growth throughout the quarters as some of these headwinds annualize and we return to growth. But overall, I think we're well set up to deliver against the guidance metrics we just communicated.

現在重要的是要理解，我們在準備好的發言中提到過，我們在第二個財年中經歷的那些逆風將在本財年的第一個財年中仍然存在。因此，我們預計今年的情況不會是線性的。我們必須在整個季度加速銷售成長，因為其中一些不利因素會逐年增加，我們將恢復成長。但總的來說，我認為我們已經做好了準備，可以按照我們剛剛傳達的指導指標來交付。

I agree with everything that Andre just said. I would remind you relative to the comment of performing versus our own expectations, precisely because of the volatility of the world that we all live and operate in, we don't provide quarterly guidance. We only provide annual guidance. And as Andre said, we met our beat, each of those numbers that were provided.

我同意安德烈剛才所說的一切。我想提醒您，關於表現與我們自己的預期不符的評論，正是由於我們生活和經營的世界的波動性，我們不提供季度指導。我們僅提供年度指導。正如安德烈所說，我們遇到了我們的節奏，每一個提供的數字。

There have been two primary questions that we've all been working through. One is, can we re-accelerate volume? And as Andre said, that is broadly happening and impressively so. So If you look at North America, over the course of the fiscal year, plus three, plus three, plus four, plus three. If we look at Europe, plus two, plus three, plus four, plus two. Andre gave you figures for some of the other regions, but broadly, that question of can volume be re-accelerated is answered with an emphatic yes.

我們一直在努力解決兩個主要問題。一是，我們能否重新加速放量？正如安德烈所說，這種情況正在廣泛發生，而且令人印象深刻。因此，如果你看看北美，在整個財政年度中，加三，加三，加四，加三。如果我們看看歐洲，加二，加三，加四，加二。安德烈（Andre）向您提供了其他一些地區的數據，但總體而言，銷售能否重新加速的問題得到了肯定的回答。

The second question that at least we've been working through is, can that happen in the context of continued margin expansion? If you look at the fiscal year numbers, top line to bottom line, that's definitely happened. If you look at gross margin in the quarter we just completed, which comes in at a 17-year high, we're certainly able to continue to re-accelerate volume growth while holding or building margins.

至少我們一直在解決的第二個問題是，在利潤率持續擴張的情況下，這種情況會發生嗎？如果你看看財政年度的數字，從收入到利潤，這肯定發生過。如果你看看我們剛完成的季度的毛利率（達到 17 年來的高點），我們當然能夠在保持或建立利潤率的同時繼續重新加速銷量成長。

So like Andre, I approach next year in a realistic fashion and realizing that the first couple quarters, they're going to look a little bit more like the one we just completed. But with overall belief that the fundamentals of the business are in very strong shape, and that as we bring the innovation that's planned to market throughout the fiscal year, we're going to be happy with the results in line with the guidance that he's provided.

因此，像安德烈一樣，我以現實的方式迎接明年，並意識到前幾季度，它們看起來會更像我們剛剛完成的季度。但總體而言，我們相信業務的基本面非常強勁，當我們將計劃在整個財年推向市場的創新成果時，我們將對符合他提供的指導的結果感到滿意。

One other element of the strength and health of the business fundamentally, if you look at the last fiscal year at a brand level, 21 out of 25 brands were growing. 11 of those 25 brands were growing at high single digits or higher rates. So again, from a breadth standpoint, I think we're positioned very well, and the team's doing a great job.

從根本上來說，業務實力和健康狀況的另一個因素是，如果從品牌層面看上一財年，就會發現 25 個品牌中有 21 個正在成長。這 25 個品牌中有 11 個品牌以高個位數或更高的速度成長。所以，從廣度的角度來看，我認為我們的定位非常好，團隊做得很好。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

達拉莫森尼安，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. I actually just wanted to follow up on those last two points you made, Jon. On the 3% to 5% organic sales growth guidance for fiscal '25, can you just parse out a bit more detail in terms of how you're thinking about the balance between pricing and volume? I know you won't want to be exact, but how you're thinking about that.

嗨，早安。事實上，我只是想跟進你提出的最後兩點，喬恩。關於 25 財年 3% 至 5% 的有機銷售成長指導，您能否詳細分析您如何考慮定價和銷售之間的平衡？我知道你不想確切地說，但你是如何考慮的。

And the 3% to 4% category growth assumption, do you think there's good visibility there given the slowing pricing? And then if you bless me with a Part B, I guess just how do you think about earnings flex relative to top line, given some of the top line volatility? Obviously, significant year-over-year gross margin expansion in fiscal '24, but that's been dissipating. You boosted marketing a lot, you've got strong productivity as you mentioned. So there's a lot going in the margin line items. So just how do you think about earnings flex next year relative to top line growth, given some of this volatility? Thanks.

假設品類成長 3% 至 4%，您認為考慮到定價放緩，該領域的可見度是否良好？然後，如果你祝福我 B 部分，我猜你如何看待相對於營收的收益彈性，考慮到營收的一些波動？顯然，24 財年的毛利率較去年同期大幅成長，但這種情況正在消失。正如您所提到的，您極大地促進了行銷，您的生產力也很高。因此，利潤項目有很多內容。那麼，考慮到這種波動性，您如何看待明年相對於營收成長的獲利彈性？謝謝。

Thanks Dara. I'm going to turn it over to Andre to take us through some of the details, and then I'll round out the answer. Go ahead, Andre.

謝謝達拉。我將把它交給安德烈，讓他帶我們了解一些細節，然後我將完善答案。繼續吧，安德烈。

Yes, thanks for the question, Dara. The volume versus price mix contribution is expected to be broadly balanced. We expected markets to return to more sustainable growth rates of 3% to 4%. That is largely happening now. And if you look at the construction of that market growth, about half of that is driven by volume, the other half is driven by price mix. I would expect our construct to look similar for the fiscal year. Obviously, it will differ by quarter and front half versus back half, but broadly balanced between volume and price mix.

是的，謝謝你的提問，達拉。銷售與價格組合的貢獻預計將大致平衡。我們預計市場將恢復到 3% 至 4% 的更永續的成長率。現在這很大程度上正在發生。如果你看看市場成長的結構，你會發現其中大約一半是由銷售驅動的，另一半是由價格組合驅動的。我希望我們的財政年度結構看起來相似。顯然，季度和前半段與後半段的情況會有所不同，但銷量和價格組合之間大致平衡。

On the margin perspective, you saw us make a choice to continue to invest fully in the business. We have delivered very strong productivity, more than $2 billion in productivity for the year. And we have significantly increased our media support, and we see the results for those investments in the strong growth we continue to deliver in North America, including share growth consistently across every period. The strong results in Europe focus markets, including strong volume growth consistent across the quarters. So we feel good about those investments.

從利潤率的角度來看，您看到我們做出了繼續全力投資業務的選擇。我們的生產力非常強勁，今年的生產力超過 20 億美元。我們顯著增加了媒體支持，我們看到了這些投資的成果，我們在北美繼續實現強勁增長，包括每個時期的份額持續增長。歐洲重點市場的強勁業績，包括各季度一致的強勁銷售成長。所以我們對這些投資感覺很好。

We'll continue to be very disciplined. And as you can appreciate, not all of those investments will have paid out. So as we do our post-event analysis, we'll re-assess every step of the way, whether those are better flowing to the P&L or reinvested somewhere else. Productivity for fiscal '25 is also very strong as I mentioned in my previous comments so that will allow us to maintain fully invested both in terms of market support as well as innovation, which is really the underpinning driver for our growth next year.

我們將繼續保持嚴格的紀律。如您所知，並非所有這些投資都會得到回報。因此，當我們進行事後分析時，我們將重新評估每一步，無論這些步驟是更好地流入損益表還是再投資到其他地方。正如我在先前的評論中提到的，25 財年的生產力也非常強勁，這將使我們能夠在市場支援和創新方面保持充分投資，這確實是我們明年成長的基礎驅動力。

And I would just add two or three comments. One, as Andre indicated, where you see the increase in marketing investment, that is largely in the geographies where we're seeing the growth company that from a top-line standpoint. As you also said, we will continue to monitor the effectiveness of that spending, and we'll adjust either up or down accordingly.

我只想添加兩三個評論。第一，正如安德烈指出的那樣，行銷投資的增加主要發生在我們從營收角度看到成長型公司的地區。正如你也所說，我們將繼續監控該支出的有效性，並相應地向上或向下調整。

Also, I just want to make sure we all understand the return on those investments is not an overnight occurrence. We have a commercialization cycle that needs to run its course. We have consumer purchase cycles that can be annual in some cases. While our portfolio is constructed to focus on categories where the product is used daily, that doesn't mean it's purchased daily. And so it sometimes takes a little bit of time to evaluate and see the market response to those investments.

另外，我只是想確保我們都明白這些投資的回報不是一朝一夕就能實現的。我們有一個需要順其自然的商業化週期。在某些情況下，我們的消費者購買週期可能是每年一次。雖然我們的產品組合旨在專注於日常使用產品的類別，但這並不意味著每天都會購買該產品。因此，有時需要一些時間來評估和了解市場對這些投資的反應。

But if you look at the last several years, it's generally always been there, and it's been one of the reasons for the growth over the last, call it, six years. As I mentioned in my remarks, plus five, plus six, plus six, plus seven, plus seven, plus four in a more challenging environment. Like Andre, I feel good about the balance that's implied in the guidance and in our internal plans, but it's something we wake up every day and continue to re-evaluate and deliver in an optimal way.

但如果你看看過去幾年，它通常一直存在，並且它是過去六年增長的原因之一。正如我在發言中提到的，在更具挑戰性的環境中，加五、加六、加六、加七、加七、加四。和安德烈一樣，我對指導方針和內部計劃中隱含的平衡感到滿意，但這是我們每天醒來並繼續以最佳方式重新評估和交付的事情。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

史蒂夫鮑爾斯，德意志銀行。

Good morning, guys, thank you. I was hoping that we could talk about fabric and home and baby and family specifically. It seems like those are the two segments that drove the most disconnect at least versus external forecasts. The release cites promotional spending and at least a degree of share loss across those segments. So maybe you could just drill down further into the headline numbers, give us a bit more context of what you're seeing, both competitively and within your own momentum. And just how we should think about both the drivers and the timing of the build back in those businesses, noting you've obviously got some challenging first half comparisons especially in the current quarter, but just really understanding where you expect those businesses to trend and land over the course of fiscal '25.

早安，夥計們，謝謝。我希望我們能具體討論布料、家居、嬰兒和家庭。至少與外部預測相比，這兩個部分似乎是造成最大脫節的部分。該新聞稿提到了促銷支出以及這些細分市場至少一定程度的份額損失。因此，也許您可以進一步深入研究標題數據，為我們提供更多有關您所看到的情況的背景信息，無論是在競爭方面還是在您自己的動力範圍內。我們應該如何考慮這些業務的驅動因素和重建的時機，注意到您顯然已經進行了一些具有挑戰性的上半年比較，特別是在當前季度，但只是真正了解您期望這些業務的趨勢和方向25 財年期間的土地。

Morning Steve. Look, home care, I think is just performing outstandingly well, 9% organic sales growth on the year, 13 quarters of sustained share growth and gaining momentum. So I think I'd focus my comments on fabric care.

早安，史蒂夫。看，家庭護理，我認為表現非常出色，全年有機銷售額增長 9%，13 個季度的份額持續增長，勢頭強勁。所以我想我的評論重點是織物護理。

I would tell you two things. Number one, we are annualizing record periods in Europe with differentiated pricing between competitors, where we had a bit of a tailwind last year that is turning into a high base comp. But structurally, the business is in great shape in Europe. Ariel continues to perform extremely well, the innovation across unit dose, and the broader portfolio, including FE, is doing very well. So I expect that business to re-accelerate very quickly.

我想告訴你兩件事。第一，我們正在對歐洲的創紀錄時期進行年化，競爭對手之間的定價存在差異，去年我們在歐洲有一些順風，正在轉變為高基數競爭。但從結構上看，該業務在歐洲狀況良好。 Ariel 繼續表現出色，單位劑量的創新以及包括 FE 在內的更廣泛的產品組合都表現出色。因此，我預計該業務將很快重新加速。

In North America, we are just launching the innovation bundle, the spring innovation bundle which is supported with the right level of investment, including promotion investment and merchandising investment. And that's why you see the negative price mix component in the North American business. But the business is picking up momentum, we're growing share. So I expect also North America to continue to move in the right direction on fabric care, and we're very encouraged with the innovation, both the innovation that just launched and the innovation that is in the pipeline.

在北美，我們剛推出創新捆綁包，即春季創新捆綁包，它得到了適當水平的投資的支持，包括促銷投資和商品投資。這就是為什麼你會在北美業務中看到負面的價格組合成分。但業務正在加速發展，我們的份額也在不斷成長。因此，我預計北美在織物護理方面將繼續朝著正確的方向前進，我們對這些創新感到非常鼓舞，無論是剛剛推出的創新還是正在醞釀的創新。

Last point maybe on fabric care, in China specifically, we also made a portfolio choice to focus on the most profitable part of the business. And so there are some short-term implications in terms of base period there. Again, for the longer term, benefit of the China fabric care business, I think that's the right decision, but it's part of the softness that you see right now in the current quarter.

最後一點可能是關於織物護理，特別是在中國，我們也做出了投資組合選擇，專注於業務中最賺錢的部分。因此，就基期而言，存在一些短期影響。同樣，從長遠來看，從中國織物護理業務的利益來看，我認為這是正確的決定，但這是您在本季度看到的疲軟的一部分。

Baby care, I'll talk two regions. One is North America. The baby care business on the premium end continues to be doing very well. We have Swaddlers growing share by 1.4%, Cruisers 360 is growing on the premium end of the spectrum where we've been able to innovate. Over the past one to two years, we continue to see the momentum accelerating across Pampers.

嬰兒護理，我講兩個區域。一是北美。高端嬰兒護理業務持續表現良好。我們的 Swaddlers 份額增長了 1.4%，Cruisers 360 在我們能夠創新的高端產品領域不斷增長。在過去的一到兩年裡，我們繼續看到幫寶適的勢頭正在加速。

We have an opportunity, we've had an opportunity on Luvs, the mid-tier brand, where we postponed innovation due to some supply chain challenges. That innovation is now in the market. So again, very significant acceleration expected given the innovation just launched in the market over the next few quarters.

我們有機會，我們在中端品牌 Luvs 上有過機會，由於一些供應鏈挑戰，我們推遲了創新。該創新現已投入市場。因此，考慮到未來幾季剛在市場上推出的創新，預計將出現非常顯著的加速。

In Europe, again base period mostly in terms of share data, and that is something we need to work through, and certainly in Europe baby, I think that's one of the areas where we're watching our sufficiency of innovation very closely, simply because the spread versus private label is the most significant. So again, the team is working through strong communication and innovation that will be launching here over the next few quarters.

在歐洲，基期主要是在份額數據方面，這是我們需要解決的問題，當然在歐洲寶貝，我認為這是我們非常密切關注創新充分性的領域之一，因為與自有品牌相比，價差最為顯著。同樣，該團隊正在透過強有力的溝通和創新開展工作，這些工作將在接下來的幾個季度在這裡啟動。

I'm just going to go in a slightly different direction here, Steve. I fully agree with Andre's description. There are also categories and sectors that are making really strong progress that as we annualize the few challenges within them should it manifest itself more clearly than it is now. So we'll have the benefit of those as we go through the year.

我只是要走一個稍微不同的方向，史蒂夫。我完全同意安德烈的描述。還有一些類別和部門正在取得真正強勁的進展，當我們將其中的少數挑戰逐年計算時，它們應該比現在更清楚地表現出來。因此，在這一年中我們將受益於這些。

What am I talking about? If you look at beauty as an example, the aggregate results are being heavily impacted by two things, SK-II and China, both of which should annualize by the second half of the year. If you then step back and look at the balance of the business, Head & Shoulders, in part behind the BARE innovation, increased sales by 7% last year. Pantene, in part behind the Pantene Miracles innovation, grew 10% last year. The personal care side of the business is growing extremely well as well. So I just want to complete the picture in terms of some of the progress that isn't as obvious in an aggregate look but will make a difference going forward.

我在說什麼？如果你以美容業為例，整體結果受到兩件事的嚴重影響：SK-II 和中國，這兩個因素都應該在今年下半年年度化。如果您退一步看看業務的平衡情況，海飛絲去年的銷售額成長了 7%，BARE 創新的部分原因是海飛絲的創新。潘婷去年的成長率達到了 10%，潘婷奇蹟的創新在一定程度上起到了推動作用。該公司的個人護理業務也成長得非常好。因此，我只想從一些進展方面來完成這幅圖景，這些進展在整體看來並不那麼明顯，但會在未來產生影響。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

Great, thanks. I was wondering if you could comment a bit, because one thing that's been absent is the discussion of the consumer broadly. So I think it could be helpful to get some perspective on the consumer environment. It feels like in US and Western Europe, from what we've heard from other companies, is that things in the last month or two have gotten demonstrably worse, as a general statement. So curious your perspective on that, and then also differences in channel performance and what you're doing around that in terms of areas of particular focus or investment. Thanks.

萬分感謝。我想知道您是否可以評論一下，因為缺席的一件事是廣泛的消費者討論。因此，我認為了解消費者環境可能會有所幫助。從我們從其他公司聽到的情況來看，總體而言，在美國和西歐，過去一兩個月的情況明顯變得更糟。很好奇您對此的看法，以及通路績效的差異以及您在特別關注或投資領域所做的事情。謝謝。

So from a consumer standpoint, we generally don't see the dynamic that some are describing. And I'm not meaning to discredit their descriptions, but if you look at a couple of dynamics, private label shares as an example, which typically would be increasing during a time of significant consumer pressure, that's not what we're seeing. Private label shares generally both in North America and Europe are in line with pre-COVID levels, and period to period, so last quarter to this quarter, are not changing significantly.

因此，從消費者的角度來看，我們通常看不到某些人所描述的動態。我並不是想要質疑他們的描述，但如果你看一些動態，以自有品牌股票為例，這些股票通常會在消費者壓力巨大的時期增加，這不是我們所看到的。北美和歐洲的自有品牌份額總體上與新冠疫情爆發前的水平一致，而且各個時期（從上個季度到本季）都沒有顯著變化。

The second data point that we look at to assess, to answer to your question, is back to volume. Is unit growth declining, and that's again not what we're generally seeing. Now certainly there are some consumers that are I'm sure under increased pressure and are probably modifying their behavior and purchases correspondingly. But in our categories -- and remember, of course, these are less discretionary categories, these are daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. We typically have the best performing product in the market, at least that's our objective. And as a result, we're not seeing any significant consumer-driven impact.

為了回答你的問題，我們要評估的第二個數據點是成交量。單位成長是否正在下降，這又不是我們普遍看到的。現在，我確信有些消費者面臨越來越大的壓力，並且可能正在相應地改變他們的行為和購買行為。但在我們的品類中——當然，請記住，這些都是不太隨意的品類，這些都是性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用品類。我們通常擁有市場上表現最好的產品，至少這是我們的目標。因此，我們沒有看到任何重大的消費者驅動的影響。

I've been in Europe quite a bit recently, I'll be back there tomorrow, Andre was there earlier in the month of June with many of you at the Deutsdche Bank conference, but also spent time with our business, and I'm not seeing it there either. We remain encouraged as we go forward. It's something that we're very cognizant of and watch very closely, but so far, so good.

我最近去過歐洲很多次，明天我就會回到那裡，安德烈在 6 月早些時候與你們中的許多人一起參加了德意志銀行會議，但也花時間關注我們的業務，我那裡也沒有看到它。我們在前進的過程中仍然受到鼓舞。這是我們非常了解並密切關注的事情，但到目前為止，一切都很好。

And the market growth rates, I think substantiate the point that Jon made. If you look at the US, I think the key point is over the past 1, 3, 6, 12 months, the category volume growth in our categories is consistently 2%. So consumers are not decelerating consumption across our categories, and similarly if you look at value growth in Europe, it's also very consistent over the same period, so as Jon said, we're watching it, but we don't see it in the data.

我認為市場成長率證實了喬恩提出的觀點。如果你看看美國，我認為關鍵點是在過去的1、3、6、12個月裡，我們品類的品類銷售成長一直是2%。因此，消費者並沒有減少我們各個品類的消費，同樣，如果你看看歐洲的價值增長，你會發現同期的價值增長也非常一致，所以正如喬恩所說，我們正在觀察它，但我們沒有在歐洲看到它。

If we look at the responsiveness to many of our strong innovations, I mentioned in my remarks Oral B IO, which is a significant premium to the balance both within the power segment and across power and manual, and it's growing at double digits. We built two share points in the last year, so just an example of responsiveness to strong innovation in these categories where performance drives brand choice.

如果我們看看對我們許多強大創新的響應能力，我在發言中提到了Oral B IO，這對於動力細分市場內以及動力和手動領域的平衡來說是一個顯著的溢價，並且它正在以兩位數的速度成長。我們在去年建立了兩個共享點，這只是在這些類別中對強大創新做出回應的一個例子，在這些類別中，性能驅動著品牌選擇。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

羅伯特·奧滕斯坦，Evercore ISI。

Great, thank you very much. A couple of follow-ups. Could you just talk a little bit about the enterprise markets, what they would have looked like ex-Argentina, and then as you look at your guidance, how much of an actual rebound in China are you assuming, how much, if any, rebound in the Middle East issues are you assuming, and is that part of the range or is there no rebound at all in the range, if that's clear? Thank you.

太好了，非常感謝。一些後續行動。您能否簡單談談企業市場，如果沒有阿根廷，它們會是什麼樣子，然後當您查看您的指導時，您認為中國的實際反彈有多大，反彈的幅度是多少（如果有的話）您假設中東問題是該範圍的一部分還是該範圍內根本沒有反彈（如果這是明確的）？謝謝。

Hey Robert. Enterprise markets, I think in aggregate are performing strongly for the year, up 6%, last year they were up, I think 10%, so I think very strong continued growth. Latin America, as we said, is growing on the year 15% and in the most recent quarter 8%. Europe focus markets up 8% for the year. Where we see headwinds is in the Middle East, in line with what we have described. So you see our Asia-Middle, East-Africa markets impacted by those Middle East headwinds. And again, we expect those to be temporary.

嘿羅伯特。我認為企業市場今年整體表現強勁，成長了 6%，去年成長了 10%，所以我認為持續成長非常強勁。正如我們所說，拉丁美洲今年成長了 15%，最近一個季度成長了 8%。歐洲重點市場今年上漲 8%。我們看到的逆風是在中東，這與我們所描述的一致。所以你會看到我們的亞洲-中東、東非市場受到中東逆風的影響。再次強調，我們預期這些都是暫時的。

The Argentina contribution to the total number is decreasing by almost a point quarter-over-quarter, so it was only 30 basis points in the current quarter. Most importantly, we divested the Argentina business, so that effect will not matter anymore in the current year because it will be removed from the organic sales base as we move through the quarter here.

阿根廷對總數的貢獻環比下降了近一個百分點，因此本季僅為 30 個基點。最重要的是，我們剝離了阿根廷業務，因此這種影響在今年不再重要，因為當我們進入本季度時，它將從有機銷售基礎中刪除。

In terms of assumptions, I think that's part of the range, right? I would say we largely assume annualization. The upper end of the range would assume some level of improvement, but I think the main contribution to the midpoint of the range would be a normalization and annualization of those headwinds we were describing, including China, SK-II, the Middle East, and again Argentina coming out of the base because of the divestiture of the business.

就假設而言，我認為這是範圍的一部分，對吧？我想說我們很大程度上假設年化。這個範圍的上限將假設有一定程度的改善，但我認為對該範圍中點的主要貢獻將是我們所描述的那些逆風的正常化和年度化，包括中國、SK-II、中東和阿根廷再次因業務剝離而退出基地。

And Robert, my view of those things as its reflected in guidance generally or indirectly is just as Andre described, which is annualization. I think if things improve either in the Middle East or China, we should have the opportunity to deliver, ceteris paribus, even better results than the midpoint of the guidance range.

羅伯特，我對這些事情的看法通常或間接反映在指導中，正如安德烈所描述的那樣，這就是年化。我認為，如果中東或中國的情況有所改善，在其他條件不變的情況下，我們應該有機會提供比指導範圍中點更好的結果。

On the other hand, I'm not assuming that they get worse, and that can always happen, so I think we're centered on a realistic expectation of outcomes.

另一方面，我並不認為情況會變得更糟，而且這種情況總是會發生，所以我認為我們的重點是對結果的現實預期。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

安德里亞·特謝拉，摩根大通。請繼續。

Thank you, good morning. I was hoping you could talk about a bit of the pricing elasticity you're seeing in the category. I do understand what, Jon, you just described as being a very low penetration of private label and consumers are still driving the preference for your brands, but just curious about in laundry specifically.

謝謝你，早安。我希望您能談談您在該類別中看到的定價彈性。喬恩，我確實理解您剛才所說的自有品牌滲透率非常低，消費者仍在推動對您品牌的偏好，但只是對洗衣業特別感興趣。

You had some promo. And some of the things that you had discussed are not necessarily driven by (inaudible). But just wondering how you're seeing as we see more pricing coming through in this view. You're planning embedding in any of this guidance. I understand it's a balanced approach to the organic sales growth for the midpoint at 4%. But wondering if there is any way of mitigating some of the effect in some of these other places which is natural, and therefore, we can see some pricing go through inflation led and some pricing also led by innovation. Thank you.

你有一些促銷活動。您討論的一些事情不一定是由（聽不清楚）驅動的。但只是想知道當我們看到更多的定價出現在這個視圖中時，您有何看法。您計劃嵌入任何本指南中。據我所知，這是一種平衡的方法，有機銷售成長的中點為 4%。但想知道是否有任何方法可以減輕其他一些地方的一些影響，這是自然的，因此，我們可以看到一些定價是由通貨膨脹主導的，而一些定價也是由創新主導的。謝謝。

Hi, Andrea. Yes. I mean, pricing and mix has been a positive contribution to our results for 19 years. Don't expect this year to be different. And I think it would be pricing for foreign exchange headwinds and some of the enterprise markets, which is in line with what the market generally executes. I also expect innovation base pricing and trade up as we have a strong innovation pipeline in the year.

嗨，安德里亞。是的。我的意思是，19 年來，定價和產品組合對我們的業績做出了積極貢獻。不要指望今年會有所不同。我認為這將是針對外匯逆風和一些企業市場的定價，這與市場的普遍執行情況一致。我還預期創新基礎定價和交易會上漲，因為我們今年擁有強大的創新管道。

From a promotional environment, we see stability at the moment. We have pockets of incremental promotion. We're still operating at about 85% versus pre-COVID levels, and we see general stability. So as I said in the guidance, the construction on the top line, roughly, we see the market have price mix driven and have volume driven. I don't expect our fiscal year numbers to be different than that. But they will look different, obviously, half one versus half two, because the base period. But the general model is still the same as we executed over the last 19 years.

從促銷環境來看，目前我們看到的是穩定。我們有一些增量促銷活動。與新冠疫情爆發前相比，我們的營運率仍約為 85%，且整體穩定。正如我在指導中所說，粗略地說，我們看到市場受到價格組合驅動和數量驅動。我預計我們的財政年度數字不會與此不同。但顯然，由於基期的原因，它們看起來會有所不同，一半是一，一半是二。但總體模型仍然與我們過去 19 年執行的模型相同。

Falorni Filippo, Citi.

法洛尼·菲利波，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the commodity outlook. Andre, you mentioned $300 million in headwind expected in fiscal '25. Can you maybe talk about the components of the headwind, some of the key commodities including pulp, resins, and also on the transportation side, given the recent rise in ocean freight, any potential impact there? And then in terms of -- I know some of the commodities you cannot hedge, but like just the level of visibility given your contracted rates on that headwind. Thank you.

嗨，大家早安。我想問一下大宗商品的前景。安德烈，您提到 25 財年預計將面臨 3 億美元的逆風。您能否談談逆風的組成部分，一些關鍵商品，包括紙漿、樹脂，以及運輸方面，考慮到最近海運運費的上漲，有什麼潛在影響嗎？然後就——我知道有些商品你無法對沖，但就像考慮到你在逆風中簽訂的合約利率的可見度水平一樣。謝謝。

Yes, hey, Filippo. The commodity portfolio is actually at the moment relatively stable. Most of that headwind that is in the guidance is pulp at the moment. We continue to see strong demand on some of the grades and limited supply. So that's driving the run-up. The rest of the portfolio is actually stable.

是的，嘿，菲利波。目前大宗商品組合實際上相對穩定。目前，指南中的大部分阻力都是紙漿。我們繼續看到對某些牌號的強勁需求和有限的供應。這就是推動股市上漲的原因。投資組合的其餘部分實際上是穩定的。

It won't be that throughout the year as you know. I mean, these things change quickly. So there's a level of variability here, obviously, and we're forecasting a spot rate as we always do.

如你所知，全年不會如此。我的意思是，這些事情變化得很快。因此，顯然這裡存在著一定程度的可變性，我們一如既往地預測即期匯率。

The commodity effect as we think through visibility -- look, I mean, the flow through is different by commodity class, but I think we discussed this when we were in the middle of the commodity crisis. It generally takes three months to nine months to flow through the P&L. So I think at the end of quarter one, we probably had relatively good visibility and most of it through half one, and then we'll go step by step. But again, this is one that we forecast on spot, we don't hedge. So the flow through again is the key driver of latency in terms of P&L effect.

我們透過可見性來思考商品效應——看，我的意思是，不同商品類別的流通量是不同的，但我認為我們在商品危機期間討論過這個問題。一般需要三個月到九個月的時間來處理損益表。所以我認為在第一季末，我們可能有相對較好的可見性，並且大部分都通過了第一季半，然後我們將逐步進行。但同樣，這是我們當場預測的，我們不進行對沖。因此，就盈虧效應而言，再次流量是延遲的關鍵驅動因素。

Transportation. Look, generally, energy, oil is relatively stable. So overall transportation is flat. Yes, we see some impact from increased transportation on the sea routes, but it is not material in the context of the year at this point.

運輸。整體看，能源、石油是比較穩定的。因此整體交通穩定。是的，我們看到了海上航線運輸增加帶來的一些影響，但就今年而言，這種影響並不重大。

Peter Grom, UBS.

彼得‧格羅姆，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. I wanted to go back to Lauren's question on the consumer, and totally recognize that you may not be seeing some of the indicators that the consumer is under pressure today. But when we think about the 3% to 4% category growth assumptions you're embedding for your outlook, is there any cushion for the 85% of the markets that are currently performing well to potentially slow at all? I totally get the annualization commentary in the Middle East and China, but just would love to get some perspective on what you expect maybe in North America and Western Europe from here. Thanks.

謝謝，接線生。大家，早安。希望你做得很好。我想回到勞倫關於消費者的問題，並完全認識到您今天可能沒有看到消費者面臨壓力的一些指標。但是，當我們考慮您在前景中嵌入的 3% 到 4% 的品類成長假設時，目前表現良好的 85% 的市場是否有任何緩衝可能會放緩？我完全了解中東和中國的年化評論，但很想從這裡了解您對北美和西歐的期望。謝謝。

Hey, Peter. Yes, the 3% to 4% as a global number, look, deconstructing that by market or by region is increasingly difficult. And we somewhat rely on the total aggregate of regions to play out in the 3% to 4% range.

嘿，彼得。是的，3% 到 4% 作為一個全球數字，看起來，按市場或按地區來解構這個數字越來越困難。我們在某種程度上依賴區域總和在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內發揮作用。

To your question on the 85% of the business slowing -- what we see is actually what we had expected that those regions slowdown from a market growth in the range of 5% to 8% to this 3% to 4% range because the price mix component is coming down and the volume component is coming up and that stabilization is built into our assumption for the year. So we expect most of those regions to play out the same way that we're projecting the global number, which is 3% to 4%, half of it volume, half of it price mix.

對於你關於85% 的業務放緩的問題，我們所看到的實際上是我們所預期的，這些地區的市場增長從5% 至8% 的範圍放緩至3% 至4% 的範圍，因為價格混合成分正在下降，成交量成分正在上升，這種穩定是我們今年的假設之一。因此，我們預期大多數這些地區的表現與我們預測的全球數字相同，即 3% 到 4%，一半是銷量，一半是價格組合。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

邦妮·赫爾佐格，高盛。

Thank you, good morning. I had a question on your beauty segment. China has been a drag to your volumes for a while as you mentioned, and we've been hearing about the ongoing challenges in the region. But more recently, we're also hearing about the slowdown in the US beauty market. So curious if that's consistent with what you're seeing, and then how should we think about the growth potential for your beauty segment this fiscal year. And is it fair to assume that these challenges could drive a further slowdown from here? Thanks.

謝謝你，早安。我有一個關於你的美容部分的問題。正如您所提到的，中國一段時間以來一直拖累你們的銷量，我們一直聽說該地區正在面臨的挑戰。但最近，我們還聽說美國美容市場放緩。很好奇這是否與您所看到的一致，然後我們應該如何考慮本財年您的美容部門的成長潛力。假設這些挑戰可能會導致經濟進一步放緩，是否公平？謝謝。

Hey, Bonnie. If you look at the beauty results outside of China and SK-II, I think they give a better indication of the growth potential and trajectory we're on. The business ex-SK-II is growing 6% in quarter four, 7% in the fiscal year that we just closed.

嘿，邦妮。如果你看看中國和 SK-II 以外的美容結果，我認為它們可以更好地表明我們所處的成長潛力和軌跡。 SK-II 以外的業務在第四季度增長了 6%，在我們剛結束的財年增長了 7%。

When you go through the segments and the core brands, if you look at Head & Shoulders, Pantene, Herbal Essences, for example, grew high single digits to double digits. Those were the best results in the past five years. When you look at our personal care business, Old Spice, Secret and Native, double-digit growth. We talked about -- Jon talked about Native now being and reaching $700 million in sales, 10 times what we got the brand with. And our new brands, (inaudible), are also growing double digits. So I think we see strength across the portfolio there.

當你瀏覽各個細分市場和核心品牌時，如果你看看海飛絲、潘婷、草本精華等，它們的成長率都很高，個位數到兩位數。這是過去五年來最好的成績。看看我們的個人護理業務，Old Spice、Secret 和 Native，都實現了兩位數的成長。我們談到 — Jon 談到 Native 現在的銷售額已達到 7 億美元，是我們品牌銷售額的 10 倍。我們的新品牌（聽不清楚）也以兩位數成長。所以我認為我們看到了整個投資組合的實力。

North America hair care is up 12%, global hair care is up 9%. And the personal care business, as I said, is doing very well. I think the core of the piece we are annualizing is really China, both on the Olay business and on the SK-II business. And as we said, our expectation is that we'll annualize. We don't yet assume a material acceleration in the fiscal year, so I'll leave it there. But again, I think the core of the business is strong, China is the one piece we need to see annualize across the first half.

北美護髮產品上漲 12%，全球護髮產品上漲 9%。正如我所說，個人護理業務表現非常好。我認為我們年度報告的核心實際上是中國，無論是玉蘭油業務還是 SK-II 業務。正如我們所說，我們的期望是我們將進行年度化。我們尚未假設本財年會出現實質加速，所以我將其留在那裡。但同樣，我認為業務的核心很強大，中國是我們上半年需要看到年化的部分。

And obviously, the majority of the spaces that we play in in beauty are more foundational versus prestige. And I think where some of the commentary in the marketplace has been directed relative to slowdown is really not in the base segments that we play in, and as Andre said, have continued to see very strong growth in. That's why I wanted to add to the question earlier because I think it's somewhat lost in the aggregate numbers, but I think it's important both for recognition of the team but also recognition of the potential.

顯然，我們在美容領域所涉足的大部分領域都是基礎性的，而不是聲望性的。我認為市場上一些與經濟放緩相關的評論實際上並不屬於我們所涉足的基礎細分市場，正如安德烈所說，我們繼續看到非常強勁的增長。一些時候提出這個問題是因為我認為它在總體數字中有所丟失，但我認為這對於認可團隊和認可潛力都很重要。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

克里斯凱裡，富國銀行證券。

Hi, good morning. I know we're later in the call, so apologies for another China question, but maybe a bit more focus. Just it has been sluggish for a few years, which I think is why there's been so many questions about the effect of annualizing.

早安.我知道我們稍後會進行通話，所以對另一個中國問題表示歉意，但也許可以更加關注。只是這幾年一直低迷，我認為這就是為什麼人們對年化的效果有如此多的質疑。

You're not the only company to see slower results in China. So I wonder if you could just maybe comment on -- clearly, there are macro dynamics in the market versus micro parts of your portfolio, which specifically need some work. SK-II has been well covered by this point. So perhaps you can speak to some other businesses that are performing in line with your expectations or not so that we can have a bit more of a portfolio view on why the annualization should deliver the outcomes you're expecting into the back half of the year.

你們並不是唯一一家在中國業績放緩的公司。所以我想知道你是否可以評論一下——顯然，市場中存在宏觀動態，而你的投資組合中的微觀部分則特別需要一些工作。 SK-II已經很好地涵蓋了這一點。因此，也許您可以與其他一些業績符合您的預期或不符合您的預期的企業進行交談，以便我們可以對為什麼年化應該在下半年實現您預期的結果有更多的投資組合看法。

So sorry for another question on China, but it felt important. Thanks.

很抱歉又問了一個關於中國的問題，但這感覺很重要。謝謝。

Hey, Chris. I'll start and Jon will add. Let me start by saying I think the China business coming from a double-digit growth trajectory through a significant dip. And we don't expect it to go back to double digits; we expect it over time to go to maybe mid singles. So more in line with what we see in other developed markets. So for sure, we don't expect the return to the growth rates that we saw pre-COVID.

嘿，克里斯。我先開始，喬恩補充。首先我要說的是，我認為中國業務正從兩位數的成長軌跡中經歷大幅下滑。我們預計它不會回到兩位數；我們預計隨著時間的推移，它可能會達到單打中期。因此更符合我們在其他已開發市場看到的情況。因此，可以肯定的是，我們預計成長率不會恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。

Many of the effects, specifically in China, SK-II, I think the run rate is now stable. So we're already seeing the run rate in terms of absolute volume and absolute dollar sale flattening. What's not yet there is the base period in line with those run rates. So unless we see a significant run rate reduction, that gives us confidence that the annualization would take place.

很多效果，特別是在中國，SK-II，我認為運行率現在是穩定的。因此，我們已經看到絕對數量和絕對銷售額的運行率趨於平緩。目前還沒有與這些運行率一致的基期。因此，除非我們看到運行率大幅下降，否則我們就有信心進行年化。

Maybe other point of confidence here, the toughest category to compete in in China right now is probably baby care. Birth rates are down 15% to 25% depending on how you define the market, and we've been able -- the team has been able to grow sales 6% end grow share in the market. Why? Because the portfolio and the innovation the team designed was very specific to the Chinese consumer, their needs, their preference in terms of superiority, and that's driving results.

也許這裡的另一個信心點是，目前在中國競爭最艱難的類別可能是嬰兒護理。出生率下降 15% 到 25%，具體取決於您如何定義市場，而我們團隊已經能夠將銷售額提高 6%，最終提高市場份額。為什麼？因為團隊設計的產品組合和創新非常針對中國消費者、他們的需求、他們對優勢的偏好，而這才是推動成果的因素。

We've been able to grow the Braun business with strong innovation. So there are pockets of business where we are leading the market. And we need to find our way to that across more categories, which we're working on. Fabric care, as I said, is very focused on the profitable part of the portfolio, which allows them to drive innovation, which allows them to drive category growth, and that's really what's playing out across categories.

我們已經能夠透過強大的創新來發展博朗業務。因此，我們在某些​​業務領域處於市場領先地位。我們需要在更多類別中找到實現這一目標的方法，我們正在努力做到這一點。正如我所說，織物護理非常注重產品組合的盈利部分，這使他們能夠推動創新，這使他們能夠推動類別成長，而這確實是跨類別的結果。

But I think the most mechanical driver is run rates are stable and stabilizing, therefore, unless we see a further decline in the market, which is entirely possible. But if those run rates hold, that will drive annualization towards the back half of the year.

但我認為最主要的機械驅動因素是運行率穩定，因此，除非我們看到市場進一步下滑，否則這是完全有可能的。但如果這些運行率保持不變，這將推動今年下半年的年化。

And just to round that out, the largest business for P&G in China is hair care. And we spent the last year-plus as we came out of COVID ensuring that we had very strong hair care plans. I am very pleased with the plans that we've put together and the execution of them on Pantene, the same on Head & Shoulders, really significantly improved propositions, significantly improved packaging, really looking strong.

更重要的是，寶潔在中國最大的業務是護髮業務。在過去一年多的時間裡，我們從新冠疫情中恢復過來，確保我們制定了非常強大的護髮計劃。我對我們在潘婷和海飛絲上製定的計劃和執行情況感到非常滿意，確實顯著改進了主張，顯著改進了包裝，看起來確實很強大。

Andre mentioned somewhere in our discussion that we had made the choice to exit the third brand, which was Vidal Sassoon. So that should not be a source of drag going forward. We're still working to be candid on the plans for Rejoice, but the net of all of that is pretty encouraging.

安德烈在我們的討論中提到，我們已經選擇退出第三個品牌，即維達沙宣。因此，這不應成為阻礙未來發展的因素。我們仍在努力坦誠地闡述飄柔的計劃，但所有這些的最終結果是相當令人鼓舞的。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

凱文·格倫迪，法國巴黎銀行。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. A question for both of you, perhaps, just on some context for investment levels, specifically trade spending in advertising and marketing, which are clearly moving higher. Gross margin and expansion there has naturally been supportive.

萬分感謝。大家，早安。也許是你們兩個的一個問題，只是關於投資水平的某些背景，特別是廣告和行銷方面的貿易支出，這些支出顯然正在上升。那裡的毛利率和擴張自然是有支持性的。

I know it's not lost on you guys you've seen what your key competitor in oral care is doing, advertising and marketing there was the highest as a percent of sales in at least a couple decades. We've seen trade spending move higher there in their North America segment. Advertising and marketing now for Procter has moved up 200 basis points this year, including a big step up of 300 basis points in the quarter, and we talked earlier on the call about (technical difficulty)

我知道你們並沒有忘記你們在口腔護理領域的主要競爭對手正在做什麼，廣告和行銷佔銷售額的百分比是至少幾十年來最高的。我們看到北美地區的貿易支出上升。現在寶潔的廣告和行銷今年已經上升了 200 個基點，其中本季大幅上升了 300 個基點，我們之前在電話會議上談到了（技術難度）

If you could offer some context here for higher investment levels broadly we're seeing in the industry and then perhaps a push from a Procter perspective is are we satisfied with the top line payback that we're seeing because spending levels are moving higher and the push would be towards sales, understanding some of the idiosyncratic items in the quarter, was a little bit soft, and we're guiding for growth similar to what we've seen historically. Thank you for all that, but context and any color would be appreciated. Thank you.

如果您可以在這裡提供一些關於我們在行業中看到的廣泛投資水平的背景信息，那麼從寶潔的角度來看，也許我們對我們所看到的頂線回報感到滿意，因為支出水平正在上升，而且推動銷售，了解本季的一些特殊項目，有點軟，我們正在指導與我們歷史上看到的成長類似的成長。感謝您所做的一切，但上下文和任何顏色將不勝感激。謝謝。

Yes, let me start, Kevin. Good morning. Generally, what I'd tell you is the--we're happy with the payout that we're seeing in the markets where we can read the payout cleanly, and that's really where 95% of the investment is, meaning Europe focus markets, some of the Europe enterprise markets, Latin America and North America, and I think the top line results support the overall payout of the aggregate of the media spend.

是的，讓我開始，凱文。早安.一般來說，我要告訴你的是——我們對我們在可以清楚讀取支出的市場中看到的支出感到滿意，這確實是 95% 的投資所在，這意味著歐洲重點市場、一些歐洲企業市場、拉丁美洲和北美，我認為頂線結果支持了媒體支出總額的整體支出。

We'll obviously go way lower in terms of penetration, and it is probably the strongest push that both Jon and I and Shailesh have as we engage with the businesses to ensure that that spending truly is productive, truly is driving market growth and sales growth, and therefore helps us to deliver top line and bottom line for the quarter and for the fiscal year. If that's no longer the case, then we will change gears and adjust.

顯然，我們的滲透率會更低，這可能是喬恩、我和 Shailesh 與企業合作以確保支出真正富有成效、真正推動市場增長和銷售增長時最有力的推動力。財年的營收和利潤。如果情況不再如此，那麼我們將改變方向並進行調整。

In terms of overall spend, I'm actually pleased to see increase in media spend and market support that's market constructive. I think it helps the consumer understand the category better. It helps drive penetration, which is still a huge opportunity across multiple categories, so that's very positive. Again, the promotion environment in aggregate remains productive, and as long as those two results in what we see in North America, which is sustained volume growth on the category and sustained value growth on the category, I think we're in a good place.

就整體支出而言，我實際上很高興看到媒體支出和市場支持的增加，這對市場具有建設性。我認為這有助於消費者更好地了解該類別。它有助於推動滲透率，這在多個類別中仍然是一個巨大的機會，所以這是非常積極的。同樣，促銷環境總體上仍然富有成效，只要這兩個結果達到我們在北美看到的那樣，即該類別的銷售持續增長和該類別的持續價值增長，我認為我們處於一個良好的位置。

And you know, it's something I've been pushing, we've been pushing for some period of time. When you have a strategy that's centered on innovation and superiority and you have in some cases relatively low levels of advertising reach, that total equation doesn't make sense. We used to call it -- David Taylor used to call it confidential superiority. We're trying to, in an effective way and in the most efficient way we can, and I mentioned this earlier, increase reach so that more consumers are aware of our products and the benefits that they provide them.

你知道，這是我一直在推動的事情，我們已經推動了一段時間了。當你制定了以創新和優勢為中心的策略，在某些情況下你的廣告覆蓋率相對較低時，整個方程式就沒有意義了。我們曾經稱之為——大衛泰勒曾經稱之為保密優勢。我之前提到過，我們正在努力以有效和最高效的方式擴大影響範圍，以便更多的消費者了解我們的產品及其提供的好處。

Obviously that effort at some point reaches the right level of maturity, but we're still on the incline curve in that regard right now, which I think is entirely the right thing to do. As I mentioned earlier, it takes some time temporally for the business to respond. It does not respond overnight, again, because of purchase cycles and commercialization cycles themselves, but as Andre said, take some assurance that you've got a former CFO in the CEO's chair, between the two of us, we're not interested in wasting your money.

顯然，這種努力在某個時候達到了正確的成熟度，但我們目前在這方面仍處於傾斜曲線上，我認為這完全是正確的做法。正如我之前提到的，企業需要一段時間才能回應。同樣，由於購買週期和商業化週期本身，它不會在一夜之間做出反應，但正如安德烈所說，請確保你有一位前首席財務官坐在首席執行官的椅子上，在我們兩人之間，我們對浪費你的錢。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

唐奧立，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Great, thanks. Good morning. Just a follow-up on promotions, if you could just talk about how much is competitors catching up on innovation, driving you to spend more to stay superior, versus a response to the tougher macros and needing to make yourself competitive on price.

萬分感謝。早安.只是促銷活動的後續，如果你能談談競爭對手在多大程度上趕上了創新，促使你花更多的錢來保持優勢，而不是對更嚴格的宏觀政策的反應，並需要讓自己在價格上具有競爭力。

Then more importantly, you've obviously done substantial innovation at the premium end. What are you doing as we think about this evolving macro in your mid-tier products to remind consumers of the value proposition there? Thank you.

更重要的是，您顯然在高端領域進行了實質創新。當我們思考你們的中階產品中不斷變化的宏時，你們正在做什麼，以提醒消費者那裡的價值主張？謝謝。

Hey, Olivia. I think our job is to lead market growth via irresistible superiority, and that starts with product, package and communication, but it includes value as you point out. I don't see that equation shifting. The competitive environment in terms of promotion is relatively stable. Our approach to promotion is relatively stable across the regions where we have the highest visibility, which is Europe and North America, so I don't view that equation as being different.

嘿，奧利維亞。我認為我們的工作是透過不可抗拒的優勢來引領市場成長，這從產品、包裝和溝通開始，但正如你所指出的，它包括價值。我不認為這個等式改變了。晉升方面的競爭環境相對穩定。在我們知名度最高的地區（歐洲和北美），我們的促銷方式相對穩定，所以我不認為這個等式有什麼不同。

Again, I think our stance on superiority, which we've talked about now for almost a year, to reset the level of superiority we expect our businesses to deliver, which moves from your job is no longer to just win against the next best competitor in the market but is to create superiority at a level where consumers are drawn into the category, so we create new consumption, we create new consumers coming into the category, increasing their usage or trading up, that's really what we are measuring ourselves against, and I think we're making very good progress and I'm very confident in the innovation pipeline we see for the current year. I'm sure Jon has to add more.

再說一次，我認為我們對優勢的立場，我們已經討論了近一年了，是為了重新設定我們期望我們的企業提供的優勢水平，這不再是僅僅贏得下一個最佳競爭對手的工作而是在消費者被吸引到該類別的水平上創造優勢，因此我們創造新的消費，我們創造新的消費者進入該類別，增加他們的使用或升級，這確實是我們衡量自己的標準，我認為我們正在取得非常好的進展，我對今年的創新管道非常有信心。我確信喬恩必須添加更多內容。

On the mid-tier, absolutely our job is to be irresistibly superior at every tier we compete in, and that's why the Luvs innovation is a great example, where--and it's a great example for the strategy at work, because if we are not superior in the mid-tier, the consumer tells us and it shows in the results. So the counter-action to innovate and drive superiority is what we do, and it's really independent of the tier, so at any given point in time, we need to make sure that we deliver all five vectors at every tier, every pack size, every price point in every channel we compete in.

在中層，我們的工作絕對是在我們競爭的每一層都表現出不可抗拒的優勢，這就是為什麼 Luvs 創新是一個很好的例子，它是工作策略的一個很好的例子，因為如果我們消費者告訴我們，在中端產品中並不優越，這也反映在結果上。因此，我們所做的就是創新和推動優勢的反作用，它實際上與層無關，因此在任何給定時間點，我們需要確保在每個層、每種包裝尺寸上提供所有五個向量，我們參與競爭的每個管道的每個價格點。

If you just assume for a minute, Olivia, that we're wrong in the ongoing discussion that we've had about consumers being under pressure, and our contention is that that really hasn't manifested itself as of yet, but just assume that we're wrong or that that changes going forward, and to your question on innovation, it becomes very important that we're innovating in categories that are going to become--that are going to see even higher levels of demand, if in fact there's any consumer downturn.

奧莉維亞，如果你假設一下，我們在關於消費者面臨壓力的持續討論中是錯誤的，我們的論點是，到目前為止，這確實還沒有顯現出來，但假設我們錯了，或者說這種情況會發生變化，對於你關於創新的問題，我們在即將成為的類別中進行創新變得非常重要，如果事實上，這些類別將會看到更高水準的需求消費者出現任何低迷。

Andre mentioned Luvs. Another example -- I mean, what happens if there's a consumer downturn, people eat at home more often, they're going out less frequently, traveling less frequently, and so categories like hand dishwashing, for example, become important, and our levels of innovation in that category, just as an example, are significant between power spray on Dawn and easy squeeze, and Andre mentioned the growth rates that we're seeing in our dish business.

安德烈提到了Luvs。另一個例子 - 我的意思是，如果消費者低迷，人們更多地在家吃飯，他們外出的頻率減少，旅行的頻率減少，那麼會發生什麼，例如手洗餐具等類別變得重要，我們的水平舉例來說，該類別的創新在Dawn 的強力噴霧和輕鬆擠壓之間非常重要，安德烈提到了我們在餐具業務中看到的成長率。

Typically, and this was certainly the case in COVID, which was an extreme condition, but people use more paper products if they're staying home more often, so things like the Charmin easy tear scallop perforation, which is driving significant levels of delight and 5% growth on the Charmin business last year, is another example of innovating, continuing to innovate in categories that are going to potentially be even more relevant in the event of a consumer downturn, and obviously just in general, that hand wash business is more of, if you will, a midtier business than the auto dish business, so there's no discrimination in terms of our commitment to innovation.

通常情況下，在新冠肺炎疫情中情況確實如此，這是一種極端的情況，但如果人們更頻繁地呆在家裡，他們會使用更多的紙製品，所以像Charmin 易撕扇貝穿孔這樣的東西，它帶來了極大的快樂和滿足感。去年Charmin 業務增長了5%，這是創新的另一個例子，在消費者低迷的情況下，繼續在可能更相關的類別中進行創新，顯然，總的來說，洗手業務更重要如果你願意的話，我們比汽車餐具業務還屬於中型業務，因此我們對創新的承諾不存在歧視。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，斯蒂菲爾。

Yes. Thanks and good morning, everybody. I wanted to ask about SK-II more broadly and just how do you see this part of today's portfolio for P&G. I guess the slower improvement in China than anticipated, but just curious if you take a look over the last, call it, four or five years. It does seem like the brand has grown in totality a little bit below what I'd peg as the peer group.

是的。謝謝大家，早安。我想更廣泛地詢問 SK-II，以及您如何看待寶潔今天產品組合的這一部分。我猜中國的進步比預期的慢，但如果你看看過去的四、五年，我只是好奇。看起來該品牌的整體成長速度略低於我所認為的同行群體。

So I guess I'm curious why you think that is? How you weave in improving trends in China with the overall expectations for the brand on a go-forward basis and I say all that too in the context of weakness pre-dating the wastewater release in Japan? So what is there? Is there more competition, are you doing more from an innovation standpoint to broaden the appeal for the brand? Can you move it beyond prestige skin care? Just broader strokes, again, in the context of how does it fit within the portfolio? Thank you.

所以我想我很好奇你為什麼這麼認為？您如何將中國的改善趨勢與對品牌未來的整體期望結合起來，我所說的這一切也是在日本廢水排放之前的疲軟背景下進行的？那麼有什麼呢？競爭是否更加激烈，您是否從創新的角度做更多的事情來擴大品牌的吸引力？您能否將其擴展到高端護膚品之外？再一次，只是更廣泛的思路，即它如何融入投資組合？謝謝。

Yes. Hey, Mark. I think your question is specifically on China. I don't think our brand portfolio is something that I would be unhappy with. I think the brand portfolio is strong. When we get it right and when the consumer is willing to engage, I think we show strong progress on baby care even in adverse market conditions.

是的。嘿，馬克。我認為你的問題專門針對中國。我認為我們的品牌組合不會讓我不滿意。我認為品牌組合很強大。當我們做得正確並且消費者願意參與時，我認為即使在不利的市場條件下，我們也會在嬰兒護理方面取得巨大進展。

Jon mentioned the progress we see on hair care, on Head & Shoulders and on Pantene. I think the parts of the portfolio where we had our doubts, we made the right choices. So we divested Vidal Sassoon and believe that was the right change in hair care. We have trimmed the fabric care portfolio to ensure that we can focus on the part of the market where we can create value for the consumer and for the company. So I feel good about the product portfolio.

喬恩提到了我們在護髮、海飛絲和潘婷方面看到的進步。我認為投資組合中我們有疑問的部分，我們做了正確的選擇。因此，我們剝離了 Vidal Sassoon，並相信這是護髮領域正確的改變。我們精簡了織物護理產品組合，以確保我們能夠專注於能夠為消費者和公司創造價值的市場部分。所以我對產品組合感覺良好。

The challenge, I think, in China, if I may, part of that is the channel shift. Because our footprint was disproportionately developed over 30 years to be a brick-and-mortar footprint and the digital acceleration, obviously, with COVID has shifted that into online to a large degree faster than anywhere else in the world. And within that online business, particularly to Douyin, heavily (inaudible) led and heavily promotion led.

我認為，在中國，如果可以的話，挑戰的一部分是通路轉變。因為我們的足跡在過去30 多年裡不成比例地發展為實體足跡，而數位化加速，顯然，隨著新冠疫情的爆發，我們的足跡在很大程度上比世界上其他任何地方都更快地轉移到了線上。在線上業務中，尤其是抖音，大力（聽不清楚）主導和大力推廣主導。

And we're taking our time to transition our portfolio to ensure we end up with the right balance between serving consumers in brick and mortar and creating value there and supporting our brands with the right messaging, equity, price stability, and innovation in the online channels. That for me -- that is the transition we're still in, but I think that transition is going well. And it will show that that portfolio that we operate, I think, can sustain mid-single growth and value creation in China.

我們正在花時間轉變我們的產品組合，以確保我們最終在為實體消費者服務和創造價值以及透過正確的訊息傳遞、公平、價格穩定和線上創新來支持我們的品牌之間取得適當的平衡管道。對我來說，這就是我們仍然處於的過渡期，但我認為過渡進展順利。我認為，這將表明我們營運的投資組合可以維持中國的中單成長和價值創造。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

考米爾·加吉拉瓦拉，傑弗里斯。

Hey, everybody, good morning. I know as we get deep into the call, it gets quite granular, but if we could bring it back a little bit on something I think might have been missed as we chat global versus domestic, which is maybe just thinking about North America specifically and the first half specifically. What is the direction of travel that you're assuming for the consumer? And when we think about annualization of pricing and such, should we be modeling a drag for North America in the first half that then reverses? Or is it meant to be closer to that balance for the full year of 50:50?

嘿，大家早安。我知道，當我們深入通話時，它會變得非常細緻，但如果我們能把它帶回來一點，我認為在我們討論全球與國內時可能會錯過一些事情，這可能只是具體考慮北美，具體來說是上半場。您假設消費者的旅行方向是什麼？當我們考慮定價年化等問題時，我們是否應該對北美地區上半年的阻力進行建模，然後逆轉？還是為了更接近全年 50:50 的平衡？

Kaumil, it's very hard to predict, obviously, by quarter or half one versus half two. I think you're in-going hunch is what I would share as I think the price mix neutralization will continue through half one, and the volume component I think is relatively stable. As I said, the market is continuing to grow at 2%, price mix has come down to about 1.5%. And I think that's what I would expect from a market growth perspective for the front half.

考米爾，顯然，很難預測四分之一或半一比二半的情況。我認為你的預感就是我要分享的，因為我認為價格組合中和將持續到半年，而且我認為成交量部分相對穩定。正如我所說，市場繼續以 2% 的速度成長，價格組合已降至 1.5% 左右。我認為從市場成長的角度來看，這就是我對前半部的期望。

Our objective is, as always, to be within that range. So that's my view. But again, that volatility can be driven by different innovation cycles, it can be driven by different promotion cycles, by channel shifts. So there is a lot of variability within that. But purely extrapolating from what we see in the market today, I think your hunch is right.

我們的目標一如既往，是在這個範圍內。這就是我的觀點。但同樣，這種波動可能是由不同的創新週期、不同的促銷週期、通路轉變所驅動的。所以其中存在著很多可變性。但純粹從我們今天在市場上看到的情況推斷，我認為你的預感是正確的。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

Hi, thanks for the question. I guess the only thing that covered on this call is the Olympic. I think I've seen about 100 ads for Procter & Gamble products. Some of them great. But I haven't noticed an increase in merchandising activity in our Nielsen tracking data in the US around it. And I'm just wondering, do you view the Olympic sponsorship more I say a brand-building exercise for consumers? Or have you been getting, and do you expect to get a lot of merchandising activity around it in the US that we'll be able to see in our tracking? Thanks.

你好，謝謝你的提問。我想這次電話會議唯一涉及的內容就是奧運。我想我已經看過大約 100 個寶潔公司產品的廣告。其中一些很棒。但在我們的尼爾森追蹤數據中，我沒有註意到美國週邊的商品銷售活動增加。我只是想知道，您是否更認為奧運贊助是針對消費者的品牌建立活動？或者您已經獲得，並且您是否期望在美國獲得大量圍繞它的營銷活動，我們將能夠在我們的跟踪中看到這一點？謝謝。

We definitely view support of the Olympics as a brand building opportunity, as a consumer outreach opportunity, and frankly, as a customer outreach opportunity. Where you'll see the activation in store is typically closer to the region of the event. So I wouldn't expect it to have large activation in North America.

我們確實將奧運的支持視為一個品牌建立機會、一個消費者推廣機會，坦白說，也是一個客戶推廣機會。您在商店中看到啟動的位置通常更靠近活動區域。所以我不希望它在北美有很大的活躍度。

I'm headed to Paris overnight tonight, I do expect to see significant activation in Europe. I'll be meeting with many of our retail partner CEOs at the games. We host them there and spend up to a couple days together building plans going forward, which would include both during event and post event activation of the assets that we've put in place for the Olympics.

今晚我將前往巴黎，我確實希望看到歐洲的重大活動。我將在奧運會上與我們的許多零售合作夥伴執行長會面。我們在那裡接待他們，並花最多幾天的時間一起制定未來的計劃，其中包括在賽事期間和賽後激活我們為奧運會準備的資產。

Just like our earlier discussion on return, this is something that we look at annually. But thus far, it's proving to be an attractive vehicle when we focus the messaging on brands and not so much when we focus the messaging on company, simply because nobody buys P&G, they buy Tide, and Ariel, and Pampers, Pantene, and Head & Shoulders, et cetera.

就像我們之前關於回報的討論一樣，這是我們每年都會關注的事情。但到目前為止，事實證明，當我們將資訊集中在品牌上時，它是一種有吸引力的工具，而當我們將資訊集中在公司上時，它就不那麼有吸引力了，因為沒有人購買寶潔，他們購買汰漬、Ariel、幫寶適、潘婷和海德。

So all good, and I'm looking forward to being there with our customers and our European team over the balance of the week.

一切都很好，我期待著在本週剩下的時間裡與我們的客戶和我們的歐洲團隊在一起。

Okay. Before we officially end the call, I just wanted to provide again some longer-term perspectives. And I'm happy to discuss it at any point during the balance of the day. The collective we, including you, have been through incredible challenges the last number of years, whether that's COVID, whether that's inflation, whether that's war, political divisiveness, regulation, you name it.

好的。在我們正式結束通話之前，我只想再次提供一些長期觀點。我很樂意在一天中的任何時間討論這個問題。我們這個集體，包括你們，在過去的幾年裡經歷了令人難以置信的挑戰，無論是新冠疫情、通貨膨脹、戰爭、政治分歧、監管等等。

And one of the things that I think is important to reflect on, the quarter's important and we reflected a lot on that today, which is appropriate. But it's also important to step back and say, how is this strategy working, not just for the quarter but for longer periods of time? As I mentioned in my remarks, pre-COVID, during COVID, post COVID, inflation, pricing, and then the big geopolitical struggles that we're all engaged in currently.

我認為值得反思的一件事是，本季度很重要，我們今天對此進行了很多反思，這是適當的。但同樣重要的是退後一步說，這一策略的效果如何，不僅適用於本季度，而且適用於更長的一段時間？正如我在演講中提到的，新冠疫情之前、新冠疫情期間、新冠疫情之後、通貨膨脹、定價，以及我們目前都在參與的重大地緣政治鬥爭。

Over that six-year period, the team has added $17 billion in sales, which puts us at the 88th percentile of the S&P 500. And at the same time, they've added $5 billion in profit, which puts us at the 93rd percentile of the S&P 500. They've built more than 200 -- I haven't looked today, but before, $200 billion in market cap in that six-year period, which is more value than most of our competitors, I think all but one have created over their entire history as a company. So this is something that is working extraordinarily well. I think that's important to reflect on as we move forward.

在這六年期間，該團隊的銷售額增加了170 億美元，這使我們在標準普爾500 指數中排名第88%。 500 指數中排名第93%標普500 指數中的公司。的價值都高一個人在公司的整個歷史中都創造了一切。所以這是一種效果非常好的東西。我認為在我們前進的過程中反思這一點很重要。

We're in a stronger place in terms of executing against that strategy than we've ever been. We've talked about investment in innovation, we've talked about raising the bar on superiority, we've talked about the progress that we're making on productivity. We've talked about the support levels that our business, we've talked about resuming volume growth in most of the major markets and doing that while building margin and simultaneously increasing our investment in these kinds of things.

在執行該策略方面，我們比以往任何時候都處於更有利的地位。我們談到了對創新的投資，我們談到了提高優勢的標準，我們談到了我們在生產力方面取得的進展。我們已經討論了我們業務的支援水平，我們已經討論了在大多數主要市場恢復銷售成長，並在建立利潤率的同時增加我們在此類事情上的投資。

And I don't see any reason in a -- if we do find ourselves in a more difficult environment from a consumer economic standpoint, one of the things we talk about internally is would we change our approach if we either had confidence that things were going to get remarkably better from a consumer standpoint, or remarkably worse from a consumer standpoint? Would we not want to be in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice? I think that's exactly where we'd want to be in either of those scenarios.

我看不出有任何理由——如果從消費者經濟的角度來看，我們確實發現自己處於一個更加困難的環境中，我們內部討論的一件事是，如果我們有信心事情會發生變化，我們會改變我們的方法嗎？難道我們不想進入性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別嗎？我認為這正是我們在這兩種情況下所希望的。

Would we not want to be able to delight consumers and customers with superior products? I can't imagine how that would be a good idea. Would we not want to have the productivity that enables us to fund those investments and accelerate innovation? Would we not want to have a more agile accountable organization structure?

難道我們不想以優質的產品取悅消費者和顧客嗎？我無法想像這會是個好主意。難道我們不想擁有能夠為這些投資提供資金並加速創新的生產力嗎？難道我們不想擁有一個更有彈性、更負責的組織結構嗎？

So all these things to me, under any scenario, both because of the results that they deliver and because of the potential they hold to delight consumers, customers, employees, society and shareowners, are the right path forward, which is why we talk about continuing to double down. I have said many times, this will not be a straight line. There are all sorts of things that affect the trend line in the business, but over periods of time, this is by far -- if we just look at our history as a company, it has produced significantly positive results, and I expect that to continue. So I just wanted to share that as we close out the call.

因此，對我來說，在任何情況下，所有這些事情，無論是因為它們所帶來的結果，還是因為它們具有取悅消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東的潛力，都是正確的前進道路，這就是我們談論的原因繼續加倍下注。我已經說過很多次了，這不會是一條直線。有各種各樣的因素會影響業務的趨勢線，但從一段時間內來看，這是迄今為止的情況——如果我們只看一下我們作為一家公司的歷史，它已經產生了顯著的積極成果，我預計這將繼續。所以我只是想在我們結束電話會議時分享這一點。

Again, that is not trying to minimize some of the challenges that we've been discussing on the quarter and on the first half of next year. Those are real, they're important to talk about, but I don't think they're controlling as we think about the mid and longer term.

同樣，這並不是試圖最小化我們在本季和明年上半年討論的一些挑戰。這些都是真實的，它們很重要，但我不認為它們在我們考慮中長期時具有控製作用。

Have a great day and look forward to catching up with you soon.

祝您有美好的一天，期待很快與您見面。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接並度過愉快的一天。