寶潔 (PG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。今天的活動正在錄製以供重播。本次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到有關可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您知道，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非公認會計準則和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為這些指標為投資者提供了了解潛在業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的完整對帳表。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將電話轉給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家早安。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席、總裁兼執行長喬恩·莫勒 (Jon Moeller) 和投資者關係高級副總裁約翰·謝瓦利埃 (John Chevalier)。

I will start with an overview of results for fiscal year '24 and for the fourth quarter. Jon will add perspective on our strategic focus areas and capabilities and will close with guidance for fiscal '25 and then take your questions.

我將首先概述 24 財年和第四季的業績。喬恩將對我們的策略重點領域和能力發表看法，最後給予 25 財年的指導，然後回答您的問題。

Fiscal '24 was another very strong year. Execution of our integrated strategies enabled the company to meet or exceed going-in guidance ranges for organic sales growth, core EPS growth, cash productivity and cash return to share owners, all this despite significant market level headwinds that were largely unknown when we gave our initial outlook for the year.

24 財年又是業績非常強勁的一年。我們實施綜合策略使公司能夠達到或超過有機銷售額成長、核心每股盈餘成長、現金生產力和股東現金回報的預期範圍，儘管我們在給出今年的初步展望時，市場面臨著很大程度上未知的重大阻力。

Organic sales growth for the fiscal year was 4%, our sixth consecutive year of 4% or better organic growth against a strong 7% comp in the prior year and in more challenging market conditions. Growth was broad-based across business units with 8 of 10 product categories growing organic sales. Home care, hair care and grooming were up high single digits, oral care and feminine care up mid singles. Fabric care, family care, and personal healthcare grew low single digits. Skin and personal care and baby care were down low singles.

本財年的有機銷售額成長率為 4%，這是我們連續第六年實現 4% 或更高的有機成長率，而前一年的有機成長率為 7%，市場條件也更具挑戰性。各業務部門均廣泛成長，10 個產品類別中有 8 個實現了有機銷售額成長。家庭護理、頭髮護理和美容產品銷售額上漲了高個位數，口腔護理和女性護理產品銷售額上漲了中等個位數。織物護理、家庭護理和個人保健產品均實現了低個位數成長。皮膚和個人護理以及嬰兒護理產品的銷售量均下降。

Focus markets grew 4% for the year with North America up 5% and Europe focus markets up 8%. Greater China organic sales were down 9% versus the prior year, driven by soft market conditions and brand-specific headwinds on SK-II. Enterprise markets were up 6%, led by Latin America with 15% organic sales growth. Ecommerce sales increased 9%, now representing 18% of the total company.

全年重點市場成長 4%，其中北美成長 5%，歐洲重點市場成長 8%。受市場疲軟和 SK-II 品牌本身不利因素影響，大中華區有機銷售額較前一年下降 9%。企業市場成長 6%，其中拉丁美洲的有機銷售額成長 15%。電子商務銷售額成長了 9%，目前占公司總銷售額的 18%。

Our strategy focused on driving market growth continues to drive share growth for P&G. All channel market value sales in the US categories in which we compete grew around 5% in fiscal '24. P&G consumption grew ahead of our fair share of category growth, driving modest value and volume share growth for the year. We grew global aggregate value share. 30 of 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, this share growth is broad-based. 6 of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year.

我們的策略專注於推動市場成長，並持續推動寶潔的份額成長。我們所參與競爭的美國類別的所有通路市場價值銷售額在 24 財年均成長了約 5%。寶潔的消費成長超過了我們公平份額的品類成長，推動了全年價值和銷售份額的適度成長。我們增加了全球總價值份額。 50 個類別的國家組合中有 30 個在當年保持或增加了份額。重要的是，這種份額增長是廣泛的。過去一年，全球 10 個產品類別中有 6 個的份額有所成長。

Core earnings per share were $6.59, up 12% for the year. Core gross margin improved 360 basis points and core operating margin increased 170 basis points. Over $2.3 billion of productivity improvements were enabled by a significant increase in investment in superior products, packages and brand communication to drive market growth. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS was up 16% and core operating margin increased 250 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 105%.

每股核心收益為 6.59 美元，年增 12%。核心毛利率提高了 360 個基點，核心營業利潤率提高了 170 個基點。透過大幅增加對優質產品、包裝和品牌傳播的投資，推動市場成長，實現了超過 23 億美元的生產力提升。以貨幣中性計算，核心每股收益成長 16%，核心營業利潤率成長 250 個基點。調整後的自由現金流生產力為105%。

We increased our dividend by 7% and returned over $14 billion of value to share owners, $9.3 billion in dividends, and $5 billion in share repurchase.

我們將股息提高了 7%，並向股東返還了超過 140 億美元的價值，其中包括 93 億美元的股息和 50 億美元的股票回購。

Moving onto fourth quarter results, organic sales rounded down to 2%, volume was up 2%, solid sequential progress. Pricing was up 1% and mix was in line with prior year. Growth continues to be broad-based across categories and regions. 9 of 10 product categories grew or held organic sales in the quarter. Home care, hair care, grooming and oral care were each up high single digits, feminine care up low singles, skin and personal care, fabric care, personal health care and family care were each in line with prior year, and baby care was down mid singles.

第四季業績顯示，有機銷售額下降至 2%，銷量成長 2%，連續取得穩定進展。價格上漲了 1%，產品組合與去年持平。各類別和各地區的成長持續廣泛。本季度，10 個產品類別中有 9 個的銷售額均實現成長或維持有機成長。居家護理、頭髮護理、美容和口腔護理均上漲了較高的個位數，女性護理上漲了較低的個位數，皮膚和個人護理、織物護理、個人保健和家庭護理均與去年持平，嬰兒護理則下降了中等個位數。

Five of seven regions grew organic sales with focus markets up 2% and enterprise markets up 2% for the quarter. Organic sales in North America grew 4% with four points of volume growth and price mix, in line with prior year. European focus markets organic sales were up 2% against a strong 12% comp in the base period. Volume was up 3%. Price mix was down a point as the region has now fully annualized prior year inflation-driven pricing.

本季度，七個地區中有五個地區的有機銷售額實現成長，其中重點市場成長 2%，企業市場成長 2%。北美有機銷售額成長 4%，銷售量和價格組合成長 4 個百分點，與上年持平。歐洲重點市場的有機銷售額成長了 2%，而基準期內則成長了 12%。交易量上漲了 3%。由於該地區目前已完全按年化上一年通膨驅動的定價，價格組合下降了一個點。

Latin America organic sales were up 8%, including high singles growth in Brazil. Of note, Argentina's overall contribution to organic sales for the region and the company were lower than the last two quarters due to the divestiture of a portion of the business in March and a notable decline in shipment volume for the remaining categories. As was announced earlier this month, we have divested the remaining portions of our operations in Argentina. As a result, Argentina will be largely removed from our organic sales reporting in fiscal year '25. Select P&G brands will still be available in the market through a distribution and licensing agreement with the new owner of the operations.

拉丁美洲有機銷售額成長 8%，其中巴西的單曲銷售成長強勁。值得注意的是，由於 3 月份部分業務的剝離以及其餘類別的出貨量顯著下降，阿根廷對該地區和公司的有機銷售額的整體貢獻低於前兩個季度。正如本月早些時候宣布的那樣，我們已剝離了在阿根廷剩餘的業務。因此，阿根廷將基本從我們 25 財年的有機銷售報告中刪除。透過與新業主簽訂的經銷和授權協議，部分寶潔品牌仍可在市場上銷售。

Greater China organic sales declined 8%. Underlying market conditions have remained weak, and the 6/18 key consumption period was down sharply versus prior year just as we saw in the 11/11 Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day shopping periods. Also, brand-specific headwinds have continued on SK-II due to its Japanese heritage. We expect general market trends, and the dynamics related to SK-II to improve over time, though it will likely be another quarter or two until we return to growth.

大中華區有機銷售額下降8%。基本市場狀況依然疲軟，6/18關鍵消費期與去年同期相比大幅下降，就像我們在11/11春節和情人節購物期看到的那樣。此外，由於 SK-II 源自日本，因此其品牌特有的阻力持續存在。我們預計整體市場趨勢以及與 SK-II 相關的動態將隨著時間的推移而改善，儘管我們可能還需要一兩個季度才能恢復成長。

Volume trends in some Europe enterprise and Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia have remained soft. We expect these headwinds to moderate or annualize over the coming periods. Global aggregate market share was down 30 basis points as we are now annualizing very strong growth in European-focused markets. 25 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter.

一些歐洲企業以及埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其、印尼、馬來西亞和俄羅斯等亞太、中東、非洲國家的銷售趨勢依然疲軟。我們預計這些不利因素在未來一段時間內將會緩和或年度化。由於我們現在將以歐洲為中心的市場按年計算為非常強勁的成長，全球整體市佔率下降了 30 個基點。本季度，我們排名前 50 位的國家組合中有 25 個保持或增加了份額。

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.40, up 2% versus the prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 6%. Core gross margin increased 140 basis points and core operating margin decreased 100 basis points. Strong productivity improvements of 250 basis points, funding a meaningful increase in marketing investment, currency-neutral core operating margin decreased 60 basis points.

最終，每股核心收益為 1.40 美元，較上年增長 2%。以貨幣中性計算，核心每股收益成長 6%。核心毛利率增加 140 個基點，核心營業利益率下降 100 個基點。生產力強勁提升 250 個基點，為行銷投資的大幅增加提供資金，剔除貨幣因素，核心營業利潤率下降 60 個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 148%. We returned nearly $4 billion of cash to share owners this quarter, over $2.4 billion in dividends, and $1.5 billion in share repurchases.

調整後的自由現金流生產力為148%。本季我們向股東返還了近 40 億美元的現金、超過 24 億美元的股息以及 15 億美元的股票回購。

In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year: organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash productivity and cash returns to share owners, strong performance again this year in a challenging economic and geopolitical environment.

總而言之，我們達到或超過了今年的各項目標範圍：有機銷售額成長、核心每股收益成長、自由現金生產力和股東現金回報，在充滿挑戰的經濟和地緣政治環境中，今年再次表現強勁。

With that, I'll pass it over to Jon.

說完這些，我就把它交給喬恩。

Thanks Andre. I'll start with a few thoughts on results before discussing the strategy.

謝謝安德烈。在討論策略之前，我先對結果談談一些想法。

Our team continues to execute the strategy with excellence, enabling strong results over each of the past six years pre-COVID, during COVID, through a historic inflationary and a pricing cycle, and through geopolitical tensions. Organic sales growth of plus five, plus six, plus six, plus seven, plus seven, and plus four over the last fiscal years. Strong earnings growth and growth in operating margin expansion. Very strong cash generation and over $96 billion of cash returned to share owners over those six years.

我們的團隊繼續出色地執行該策略，在過去六年中，無論是在新冠疫情之前、疫情期間、經歷歷史性的通膨和定價週期，還是在地緣政治緊張局勢下，都取得了強勁的業績。過去幾個財年的有機銷售額分別成長了 5%、6%、6%、7%、7% 和 4%。獲利成長強勁，營業利益率擴大。現金產生能力非常強勁，六年來向股東返還了超過 960 億美元的現金。

For fiscal '24, going-in organic sales guidance was 4% to 5%. We delivered 4% in a very volatile environment. Flat volume for the year with improving trajectory through the year, 2% growth in the fourth quarter. Strong volume growth in North America and Europe focus markets offsetting soft markets in enterprise regions in China. Going-in core EPS guidance of 6% to 9%, delivered 12%. Core gross margin at a 17-year high with strong productivity improvement funding strong marketing investments. Going-in cash productivity outlook of 90%, delivered 105% which enabled a 7% dividend increase, the 68th consecutive year of increase and the 134th consecutive year paying a dividend.

對於 24 財年，有機銷售額預期為 4% 至 5%。我們在非常動盪的環境中實現了 4% 的收益。全年銷量持平，但全年趨勢不斷改善，第四季成長 2%。北美和歐洲重點市場的強勁銷售成長抵消了中國企業區域市場的疲軟。核心每股盈餘預期為 6% 至 9%，實際實現值為 12%。核心毛利率達到 17 年來的最高水平，強勁的生產力提升為強大的行銷投資提供了資金。現金生產力預期為 90%，實際達到 105%，股息成長 7%，這是連續第 68 年成長，也是連續第 134 年派發股息。

As Andre said, strong results in a challenging environment. To be very clear, there's still more work to do to continue improving areas in our control, which will be needed to offset the headwinds that are largely not in our control. We'll double down on superiority across all five vectors. We'll double down on productivity up and down the P&L and across the balance sheet. We'll double down on enabling our organization to execute our integrated strategy with excellence, to delight consumers and win in the marketplace, to deliver the level of balanced growth and value creation results you and we expect.

正如安德烈所說，在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了優異的成績。需要明確的是，我們還有很多工作要做，以繼續改善我們能夠控制的領域，以抵消很大程度上我們無法控制的阻力。我們將加倍努力，在所有五個方面取得優勢。我們將加倍提高損益表和資產負債表的生產力。我們將加倍努力，使我們的組織能夠卓越地執行我們的綜合策略，取悅消費者並在市場上取勝，實現您和我們所期望的平衡成長和價值創造成果。

Our strategy is dynamic and sustainable. It adapts to the changing needs of consumers, customers and society and is focused on growing markets, creating versus taking business, the most sustainable and typically most profitable way to grow. A focused portfolio of daily use products and categories where performance drives brand choice. The portfolio is performing, delivering broad-based growth across nearly all categories and most geographies.

我們的策略是動態的、可持續的。它適應消費者、客戶和社會不斷變化的需求，並專注於不斷增長的市場，創造而不是搶佔業務，這是最可持續且通常最有利可圖的成長方式。專注於日常使用產品和類別的組合，以性能驅動品牌選擇。該投資組合表現良好，幾乎在所有類別和大多數地區都實現了廣泛的成長。

As you know, we are active managers of our portfolio. Over the last several years, we have made some targeted additions and subtractions in that portfolio. We have adjusted our operating model in several markets. Each of these moves were made with a focus on long term balanced growth and value creation.

如您所知，我們是投資組合的積極管理者。過去幾年來，我們對該投資組合進行了一些有針對性的增減。我們已經調整了多個市場的營運模式。每一個舉措都著眼於長期平衡成長和價值創造。

The second strategy element, ongoing commitment to and investment in irresistible superiority through innovation across the five vectors of product, package, brand communication, retail execution, and value holistically defined. Leveraging that superiority to delight consumers, grow markets and our share in them, to jointly create value with retail partners. The plans across the businesses are broader and stronger than any time in the recent past as each team works to increase their margin of superiority and consumer delight.

第二個策略要素，透過對產品、包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和價值五個面向進行整體創新，持續致力於並投資於不可抗拒的優勢。利用此優勢取悅消費者，擴大市場和市場份額，與零售合作夥伴共同創造價值。由於每個團隊都致力於提高自己的優勢和消費者滿意度，因此各個業務部門的計劃比近期任何時候都更加廣泛和強大。

Superior innovations that are driven by deep consumer insights, communicated to consumers with more effective and efficient marketing programs, executed in stores and online in conjunction with retailer strategies to grow categories and our brands and priced to deliver superior value across each price tier where we compete.

卓越的創新是由深刻的消費者洞察驅動的，透過更有效、更有效率的行銷計劃傳達給消費者，在商店和線上實施，結合零售商策略來擴大產品類別和我們的品牌，並透過定價在我們競爭的每個價格層級提供卓越的價值。

We've talked many times about the superiority driven market growth, share growth, and sales growth we've achieved with products like Tide and Ariel pods, Downy and Lenor laundry scent beads, and Dawn and Fairy easy squeeze and power wash. Two more examples: Oral B IO power toothbrushes deliver superior cleaning and delightful user experience. Superior communication includes the insight that manual brushes leave 50% of plaque behind, but Oral B IO delivers 100% more plaque bacterial removal with its round head and removes plaque in hard-to-reach places. This superior proposition is accelerating power brush trial and adoption, bringing new power brush users into the category, driving high single digit market growth of the power brush category, double digit sales growth for Oral B power, and two points of Oral B value share growth over the past 12 months.

我們曾多次談到，我們憑藉 Tide 和 Ariel 洗衣凝珠、Downy 和 Lenor 洗衣香珠以及 Dawn 和 Fairy 輕鬆擠壓和強力洗滌等產品所實現的優勢驅動了市場增長、份額增長和銷售增長。再舉兩個例子：Oral B IO 電動牙刷提供卓越的清潔效果和令人愉悅的使用者體驗。卓越的溝通包括洞察手動牙刷會留下 50% 的牙菌斑，但 Oral B IO 憑藉其圓形刷頭可去除 100% 以上的牙菌斑細菌，並可去除難以觸及位置的牙菌斑。這項卓越的主張正在加速電動牙刷的試用和採用，為電動牙刷類別帶來新的用戶，推動電動牙刷類別的市場實現高個位數增長，Oral B 電動牙刷的銷售額實現兩位數增長，並在過去 12 個月中使 Oral B 的價值份額增長了兩百分點。

Native, our premium personal care brand is delivering superiority across all five vectors and across multiple product forms, including deodorants, body wash, shampoo and conditioners, superior performance with fewer ingredients and irresistible scents. Transparent labeling and clean white packaging, superior retail execution and strong retailer partnerships showcasing the full range of forms and scents. Premium positioning with the category providing superior value for the consumer looking for an offering with more natural ingredients. Native has driven a step change in market value growth for the US deodorants and personal care categories from low singles to mid-teens. Native sales have grown nearly 10 times over the last five years to over $700 million in fiscal '24.

Native 是我們的高端個人護理品牌，在五大領域和多種產品形式上都表現出色，包括除臭劑、沐浴露、洗髮精和護髮素，以更少的成分實現卓越的性能，並散發出令人無法抗拒的香味。透明的標籤和乾淨的白色包裝、卓越的零售執行和強大的零售商合作夥伴關係展示了各種形式和香味。此類別具有高端定位，為尋求含有更多天然成分的消費者提供卓越的價值。Native 推動了美國除臭劑和個人護理類別的市場價值從低位增長至中位。過去五年，本土銷售額成長了近 10 倍，24 財年達到 7 億多美元。

Third strategy element, productivity improvement in all areas of our operations. In order to fund investments in innovation, brand building and market growth to mitigate cost and currency challenges and to expand margins and generate cash. We delivered very strong cost savings in fiscal '24. Visibility to more savings opportunities is increasing as the businesses continue to build their three-year rolling productivity master plans.

第三個策略要素是提高我們所有營運領域的生產力。為了資助創新、品牌建立和市場成長方面的投資，以減輕成本和貨幣挑戰並擴大利潤率和產生現金。我們在 24 財年實現了非常顯著的成本節約。隨著企業繼續制定三年滾動生產力總體規劃，更多的節約機會逐漸顯現。

We have an objective for gross savings in cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax, enabled by platform programs with global application across categories like supply chains 3.0. We're working in a new way with retailers on the totality of the supply chain end to end versus simply trying to optimize our respective pieces. One example using data and machine learning algorithms to optimize truck scheduling to minimize idle time for drivers. We're also using digital tools to optimize fill rates and for our dynamic routing and sourcing optimization. $200 million to $300 million of savings opportunity across these areas.

我們的目標是，透過供應鏈 3.0 等跨類別的全球應用平台程序，實現稅前銷售成本總節省高達 15 億美元。我們正在以新的方式與零售商合作，實現整個供應鏈的端到端，而不是簡單地嘗試優化各自的部分。一個例子是使用數據和機器學習演算法來優化卡車調度，以最大限度地減少司機的空閒時間。我們還使用數位工具來優化填充率以及動態路由和採購優化。這些領域有 2 億至 3 億美元的節省機會。

We have line of sight to savings from improved marketing productivity. More efficiency and greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste while increasing reach. We're taking targeted steps to reduce overhead as we digitize more of our operations.

我們有望透過提高行銷效率來節省成本。效率更高、效果更強，避免頻率過高、減少浪費，同時擴大覆蓋範圍。隨著我們業務的數位化程度不斷提高，我們正在採取有針對性的措施來降低管理費用。

Next, constructive disruption of ourselves and our industry, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends, technologies and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage. We continue to be a constructive disruptor of brand building, in-housing more of the media planning and placement activity using our proprietary tools and consumer data to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of our communication. We're disrupting traditional lab-based innovation models to dramatically increase the speed and breadth of discovery. Last but clearly not least, we've designed and continued to refine an empowered, agile and accountable organization, an inclusive and diverse organization, enabling us to better serve an increasingly diverse set of consumers.

其次，我們對自己和產業進行建設性顛覆，願意改變、適應和創造新的趨勢、技術和能力，以塑造我們產業的未來並擴大我們的競爭優勢。我們將繼續成為品牌建立的建設性顛覆者，利用我們的專有工具和消費者數據，將更多的媒體規劃和投放活動納入公司內部，以提高我們溝通的有效性和效率。我們正在顛覆傳統的實驗室為基礎的創新模式，以大幅提高發現的速度和廣度。最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們設計並繼續完善一個有權力、靈活和負責任的組織，一個包容和多元化的組織，使我們能夠更好地服務於日益多樣化的消費者。

Strong progress across all strategic pillars with significant opportunity ahead of us. No reason to stand still, as illustrated by the four focus areas that we've outlined previously. Number one, supply chain 3.0. It's delivering productivity as you can see in the results. We're also driving improved agility, flexibility, scalability and transparency in a rapidly evolving landscape.

所有戰略支柱都取得了長足進步，我們面臨著巨大的機會。沒有理由停滯不前，正如我們之前概述的四個重點領域所示。第一，供應鏈3.0。正如您在結果中所看到的，它正在提高生產力。在快速發展的環境中，我們也致力於提高敏捷性、靈活性、可擴展性和透明度。

Optimized sustainable and flexible up and down the supply chain, inclusive of our retail partners. All of this is driving higher quality, increased supply assurance, and higher on-shelf availability of our products, and of course better cash and cost structures. These programs improve superiority with consumers and further strength what is already the top ranked supply chain by our retail partners in third party industry surveys.

優化供應鏈的永續性和靈活性，包括我們的零售合作夥伴。所有這些都推動著我們產品的品質提高、供應保證增強、貨架可用性提高，當然還有更好的現金和成本結構。這些計劃提高了我們在消費者中的優勢，並進一步增強了我們在第三方行業調查中已被我們的零售合作夥伴評為頂級的供應鏈。

Next, environmental sustainability. Superior propositions for consumers, customers and share owners that are more sustainable. Driving sales and profitability while reducing the footprint of our operations, enabling consumers to reduce their footprint and innovating to deliver cross-industry solutions for some of our most pressing challenges.

其次，環境永續性。為消費者、客戶和股東提供更永續的優質建議。在減少營運足跡的同時推動銷售和獲利，使消費者能夠減少他們的足跡，並進行創新，為我們面臨的一些最緊迫的挑戰提供跨行業解決方案。

The next focus area is digital acumen, leveraging data and digitization to delight consumers, streamline the supply chain, increase quality, drive productivity, all driving share owner value. One example is the improvement we've delivered in ad copy qualification and media buying with proprietary digital tools we've developed and the digital molecule development work in fabric care. We've built similar tools to drive faster, cheaper and better innovation in perfume, which benefits almost every product category in the company. We're also digitizing more of our back-office work processes to lower costs and drive efficiencies while delivering higher quality output.

下一個重點領域是數位敏銳度，利用數據和數位化來取悅消費者、簡化供應鏈、提高品質、提高生產力，所有這些都將推動股東價值。其中一個例子就是我們利用自己開發的專有數位工具以及織物護理中的數位分子開發工作在廣告文案資格和媒體購買方面所取得的進展。我們建立了類似的工具來推動香水領域更快、更便宜、更好的創新，這幾乎使公司的每個產品類別受益。我們也將更多後台工作流程數位化，以降低成本、提高效率，同時提供更高品質的產出。

Each of these examples has obvious cost benefits, but they're also driving product and package superiority, superior brand communication to consumers, superior retail execution in store and online, stronger internal controls and jobs that enable people to focus on higher order tasks with greater business impact.

上述每個例子都具有明顯的成本效益，但它們也推動了產品和包裝的卓越性、向消費者進行的卓越的品牌溝通、店內和網上的卓越零售執行、更強的內部控制以及使人們能夠專注於對業務影響更大的更高階任務的工作。

Last focus area, a superior value equation for all employees, for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent and are best positioned to serve all consumers. These four focus areas are not separate strategies, they simply strengthen our ability to execute our integrated growth strategy. Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption of our organization reinforce and build on each other. We continue to believe there's merit in doubling down on this integrated strategy, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners, fueled by productivity.

最後一個重點領域是為所有員工、所有角色制定卓越的價值方程，以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才，並處於為所有消費者服務的最佳位置。這四個重點領域並不是單獨的策略，它們只是增強了我們執行綜合成長策略的能力。我們對組織的投資組合、優勢、生產力、建設性破壞的策略選擇相互加強和促進。我們始終相信，加倍實施這項綜合策略是有價值的，首先要承諾在生產力的推動下，向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供令人無法抗拒的優質服務。

We remain as confident as ever in our strategy and our ability to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth in value creation to delight consumers, customers, employees, society and share owners. At the end of the day, P&G serves people with a strong desire to improve their lives and the lives of their families. I believe in the capabilities and commitment of P&G people to serve consumers and to do this in the most responsible way, consistent with P&G's values and principles. I'm excited about what lays ahead. Of course we'll continue to face challenges, but the future holds great promise. We have many opportunities ahead to grow markets, grow our business, and create significant value for our owners.

我們對我們的策略和推動市場成長以及實現價值創造平衡成長以取悅消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東的能力一如既往地充滿信心。歸根究底，寶潔服務的對像是那些強烈渴望改善自己和家人生活的人。我相信寶潔員工有能力和承諾為消費者服務，並以最負責任的方式提供服務，這與寶潔的價值觀和原則相一致。我對未來充滿期待。當然，我們將繼續面臨挑戰，但未來充滿希望。我們擁有許多機會來拓展市場、發展業務並為我們的所有者創造巨大價值。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for the new year.

說完這些，我將把它交給安德烈，讓他概述我們對新年的指導。

Thank you, Jon. As we enter fiscal '25, we continue to expect the environment around us to remain volatile and challenging, from input costs, currencies, to consumers, competitors, retailers, and geopolitical dynamics. As Jon said, we'll navigate these challenges with our dynamic integrated strategy guided by consumers every step of the way.

謝謝你，喬恩。隨著我們進入25財年，我們預計周圍的環境仍將動盪且充滿挑戰，從投入成本、貨幣到消費者、競爭對手、零售商和地緣政治動態。正如喬恩所說，我們將透過以消費者為指導的動態綜合策略來應對這些挑戰。

Our going-in guidance for fiscal '25 is consistent with our long-term algorithm. On the top line, we currently expect the markets in which we compete to deliver local currency sales growth in the range of 3% to 4% for the year. Our objective is to grow organic sales modestly ahead of the underlying growth in these markets. This translates to an organic sales growth guidance range of 3% to 5% for the fiscal year - apologies, I had my mic muted.

我們對 25 財年的預期與我們的長期演算法一致。就總銷售額而言，我們目前預計，我們所競爭的市場今年的當地貨幣銷售額成長率將在 3% 至 4% 之間。我們的目標是使有機銷售額略微成長，領先於這些市場的潛在成長。這意味著本財年的有機銷售額增長預期範圍為 3% 至 5% - 抱歉，我的麥克風靜音了。

On the bottom line, our algorithm calls for mid to high single digit core earnings per share growth. Our core EPS guidance range for fiscal '25 starts the year at 5% to 7% versus fiscal '24 core EPS of $6.59. This guidance equates to a range of $6.91 to $7.05 per share, $6.98 up 6% at the center of the range. This outlook includes a commodity cost headwind of approximately $300 million after tax and a foreign exchange headwind of approximately $200 million after tax. Combined, foreign exchange and commodities are projected to be a headwind of $0.20 per share for fiscal '25, or a 3 percentage point drag on core EPS growth.

歸根究底，我們的演算法要求每股核心收益實現中高個位數成長。我們對 25 財年核心每股收益的預期範圍為 5% 至 7%，而 24 財年核心每股收益為 6.59 美元。該指引相當於每股 6.91 美元至 7.05 美元的範圍，區間中間為 6.98 美元，上漲 6%。這項前景包括稅後約 3 億美元的商品成本逆風和稅後約 2 億美元的外匯逆風。綜合來看，外匯和大宗商品預計將對 25 財年每股造成 0.20 美元的阻力，或對核心每股收益成長造成 3 個百分點的拖累。

In addition, the prior fiscal year included benefits from several minor brand divestitures, and we expect a somewhat higher tax rate in the new fiscal year. Combined, these are an additional $0.10 to $0.12 headwind to core EPS.

此外，上一財年包括幾個小型品牌剝離帶來的收益，我們預期新財年的稅率會略高。綜合起來，這些因素將為核心每股收益帶來額外的 0.10 美元至 0.12 美元的不利影響。

We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories. We expect to pay around $10 billion in dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $7 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $16 billion to $17 billion of cash to share owners this fiscal year.

我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流生產力將達到 90%。這包括隨著我們在多個類別中增加產能而增加的資本支出。我們預計本財年將支付約 100 億美元的股息，並回購 60 億至 70 億美元的普通股，並計劃向股東返還 160 億至 170 億美元的現金。

While we are clear eyed on the challenges in the market and the work needed to continue to drive the business, fiscal '25 guidance for top line, bottom line and cash are each consistent with our long-term algorithm.

雖然我們清楚地看到了市場中的挑戰以及繼續推動業務發展所需的工作，但 25 財年的營收、利潤和現金指導都與我們的長期演算法一致。

A few items for you to consider as you build your quarter-to-quarter estimates. On the top line, please keep in mind that the July to September period has the most difficult comp for the year, and many of the market-level challenges we've noted will not fully annualize or improve materially in our estimate until the second half of the year. On the bottom line, the foreign exchange and commodity headwinds skew a bit toward the front half of the year, and the back half comps include the benefit of the tax items and minor brand divestitures I mentioned earlier.

在您制定季度估算時需要考慮以下幾點。最重要的是，請記住，7 月至 9 月是今年最困難的時期，我們注意到的許多市場層面的挑戰直到下半年才會完全實現年度化或在我們的估計中出現實質改善。總的來說，外匯和大宗商品逆風略微偏向今年上半年，而下半年的業績則包括我之前提到的稅收項目和小型品牌剝離帶來的好處。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions, or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

該展望基於當前市場成長率估計、商品價格和外匯匯率。預計指導範圍內不會出現顯著的額外貨幣疲軟、商品成本上漲、地緣政治動盪、重大供應鏈中斷或商店關閉的情況。

With that, I'll hand it back to Jon for his closing thoughts.

說完這些，我會把話題交還給喬恩，讓他做最後的總結。

We're very pleased with the strong results P&G people have delivered over the last year and inclusive of prior years in a very challenging and volatile environment. The earnings power and value creation potential of the company are as strong as ever. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable, balanced growth is to double down on the strategy, excellent execution of an integrated set of market constructive strategies delivered with a focus on balanced top and bottom-line growth and value creation, starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners.

我們對寶潔員工在過去一年以及前幾年在充滿挑戰和動盪的環境中取得的出色業績感到非常滿意。公司的獲利能力和價值創造潛力一如既往地強勁。我們始終堅信，實現永續、平衡成長的最佳途徑是加倍重視策略，出色地執行一套全面的市場建設性策略，重點是平衡的頂線和底線成長和價值創造，首先致力於向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供不可抗拒的優質服務。

With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行 Bryan Spillane。

Thanks Operator, and good morning, everyone. I guess the question that we've fielded a few times this morning, and if you could touch on this a bit, just last couple of quarters, it seems like organic sales have come in maybe slower or lower than you were expecting at the start of each quarter. So maybe if you can touch a little bit on just what's developed, especially in the fourth quarter, maybe different than what you were expecting? And then if you can add to that also, is that true for the market? So at a 2% organic sales for this quarter, are we above, below, or in line with market growth? Thanks.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我想我們今天早上已經回答過幾次這個問題了，如果你能稍微談一下的話，就在過去的幾個季度裡，似乎有機銷售額的增長速度可能比你在每個季度開始時預期的要慢或要低。那麼，您能否稍微談談目前的情況，特別是第四季度的情況，可能與您的預期有所不同？然後如果您還能補充一點，這對市場來說真的是如此嗎？那麼，本季有機銷售額成長 2% 的情況下，我們是高於、低於還是與市場成長持平？謝謝。

Good morning, Bryan. I'll start and then, Jon, I'm sure, will add some perspective as well. I'll start back where we started the prepared remarks. I think we delivered a year where we exceeded on that, all of our in-going guidance metrics.

早安，布萊恩。我先開始，然後，我相信喬恩也會補充一些觀點。我將回到我們開始準備要發言的地方。我認為，我們今年的表現超出了所有預期指導指標。

Now the year wasn't linear, as you highlight, and I'd distinguish two parts of the business. 85% percent of the business is performing right in line with expectations and right in line with what we would have expected throughout the year. We have strong growth in North America, 4% in the quarter -- 4% volume growth in the quarter.

正如您所強調的，今年並不是線性的，我會區分業務的兩個部分。 85% 的業務表現符合預期，也與我們全年的預期一致。我們在北美實現了強勁成長，本季銷量成長了 4%。

Europe focus markets growing volumes at 3%, Europe enterprise markets growing volumes at 6%, LA normalizing to about 8% organic sales growth. So that's part of the business where the trajectory is not impacted by significant external events. I think it's moving right along. We expected the normalization and price-mix contribution as we have talked throughout the quarters.

歐洲重點市場銷售成長 3%，歐洲企業市場銷售成長 6%，洛杉磯有機銷售額成長率正常化至約 8%。因此，這是業務的一部分，其軌跡不會受到重大外部事件的影響。我認為一切進展順利。正如我們在整個季度中討論的那樣，我們預計會出現正常化和價格組合貢獻。

If you look at the headwinds that we started to communicate in December, they are really still with us throughout the second half, and that's what's driving the volatility in the top-line results. Those headwinds have accelerated in part. And honestly, in quarter four, some of them developed late in the quarter.

如果你看一下我們在 12 月開始傳達的不利因素，你會發現這些不利因素實際上會在整個下半年持續困擾我們，這就是導致營收業績波動的原因。這些不利因素在某種程度上已經加劇。老實說，在第四季度，其中一些問題在季度末得到解決。

So when you think about China and SK-II, we're heavily impacted by 6/18, a weaker key consumption period in China, and overall market sentiment in China has not improved throughout half two. We had highlighted that we expect the China recovery to be slow and to take time, and I think that's playing out in the results we see in the second half.

因此，當您考慮中國和 SK-II 時，我們受到 6/18（中國較弱的關鍵消費期）的嚴重影響，並且中國的整體市場情緒在整個上半年都沒有改善。我們曾強調，我們預期中國經濟復甦將是緩慢且需要時間的，我認為這將在下半年的結果中得到體現。

The Middle East situation has not really improved, so we continue to see developing stronger impacts on western retailers in some of these markets. And while the team has implemented many interventions, the execution in-store has been limited by some of these headwinds in the Middle East. The last element, we saw a softening in quarter four on the Argentina volumes, driven by the general circumstances in the market, strong high translation pricing in Argentina. So there was a softer contribution on organic sales growth in quarter four than what we'd seen in quarter three.

中東局勢並未真正改善，因此我們繼續看到對其中一些市場的西方零售商產生越來越大的影響。儘管團隊已實施了許多幹預措施，但店內執行仍受到中東一些不利因素的限制。最後一個因素是，我們發現第四季阿根廷的翻譯量有所下降，這是受市場整體狀況和阿根廷翻譯價格高企的影響。因此，第四季的有機銷售成長貢獻比第三季要小。

If you step back, though, the performance of the business and the way we set up for '25, I think, is very strong. 85 of the business is developing right in line with what we would have expected. We're growing share in North America. The balance of the markets are growing volume, which is really the shift we needed to see.

不過，如果你退一步來看，我認為我們的業務表現和我們為 25 年所做的安排都非常強勁。 85%的業務發展符合我們的預期。我們在北美的份額正在成長。市場的平衡不斷成長，這正是我們需要看到的轉變。

Our gross margin is at record levels. Our productivity is very strong. That has enabled us to remain fully invested from a media perspective and from an innovation perspective. And so going into the year, we feel all the structural elements of the business are strong.

我們的毛利率處於創紀錄水平。我們的生產力非常強大。這使我們能夠從媒體角度和創新角度繼續全力投資。因此，進入今年以來，我們感覺業務的所有結構要素都很強勁。

Now what is important to understand, and we mentioned it in the prepared remarks, those headwinds that we have experienced in half two will still be with us in half one of this fiscal year. So we expect this year not to be linear. And we have to accelerate sales growth throughout the quarters as some of these headwinds annualize and we return to growth. But overall, I think we're well set up to deliver against the guidance metrics we just communicated.

現在重要的是要理解，我們在準備好的發言中提到過，我們在第二季度經歷的那些逆風仍然會伴隨我們度過本財年的第一季。因此我們預計今年的情況不會是直線性的。隨著一些不利因素年度化，我們將恢復成長，我們必須加速整個季度的銷售成長。但總的來說，我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備來實現我們剛剛傳達的指導指標。

I agree with everything that Andre just said. I would remind you relative to the comment of performing versus our own expectations, precisely because of the volatility of the world that we all live and operate in, we don't provide quarterly guidance. We only provide annual guidance. And as Andre said, we met our beat, each of those numbers that were provided.

我同意安德烈剛才說的一切。我想提醒您，相對於與我們自己的預期相比的表現的評論，正是因為我們生活和經營的世界充滿波動，所以我們不提供季度指導。我們僅提供年度指導。正如安德烈所說，我們達到了我們的目標，滿足了所提供的每一個數字。

There have been two primary questions that we've all been working through. One is, can we re-accelerate volume? And as Andre said, that is broadly happening and impressively so. So If you look at North America, over the course of the fiscal year, plus three, plus three, plus four, plus three. If we look at Europe, plus two, plus three, plus four, plus two. Andre gave you figures for some of the other regions, but broadly, that question of can volume be re-accelerated is answered with an emphatic yes.

我們一直在努力解決兩個主要問題。一是，我們能否重新加速交易量？正如安德烈所說，這種情況正在廣泛發生，而且令人印象深刻。因此，如果你看一下北美，在整個財政年度中，加三、加三、加四、加三。如果我們看看歐洲，加二、加三、加四、加二。安德烈給了其他一些地區的數據，但總體而言，對於產量能否再次加速的問題，答案是肯定的。

The second question that at least we've been working through is, can that happen in the context of continued margin expansion? If you look at the fiscal year numbers, top line to bottom line, that's definitely happened. If you look at gross margin in the quarter we just completed, which comes in at a 17-year high, we're certainly able to continue to re-accelerate volume growth while holding or building margins.

我們一直在努力解決的第二個問題是，在利潤率持續擴大的背景下，這種情況會發生嗎？如果你看一下財政年度的數字，從頂線到底線，那肯定發生了。如果你看一下我們剛結束的這個季度的毛利率，它達到了 17 年來的最高水平，那麼我們肯定能夠在保持或提高利潤率的同時繼續加速銷量成長。

So like Andre, I approach next year in a realistic fashion and realizing that the first couple quarters, they're going to look a little bit more like the one we just completed. But with overall belief that the fundamentals of the business are in very strong shape, and that as we bring the innovation that's planned to market throughout the fiscal year, we're going to be happy with the results in line with the guidance that he's provided.

因此，像安德烈一樣，我會以現實的方式對待明年，並意識到前幾季，它們看起來會更像我們剛剛完成的季度。但總體而言，我們相信業務基本面狀況良好，並且隨著我們在整個財政年度將計劃中的創新推向市場，我們將對符合他提供的指導的結果感到滿意。

One other element of the strength and health of the business fundamentally, if you look at the last fiscal year at a brand level, 21 out of 25 brands were growing. 11 of those 25 brands were growing at high single digits or higher rates. So again, from a breadth standpoint, I think we're positioned very well, and the team's doing a great job.

從根本來看，企業實力和健康狀況的另一個因素是，如果從品牌層面來看上一財年，25 個品牌中有 21 個都在成長。這 25 個品牌中有 11 個品牌的成長率達到個位數或更高。因此，從廣度的角度來看，我認為我們的定位非常好，而且團隊做得很好。

Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的達拉‧莫森尼安 (Dara Mohsenian)。

Hey, good morning. I actually just wanted to follow up on those last two points you made, Jon. On the 3% to 5% organic sales growth guidance for fiscal '25, can you just parse out a bit more detail in terms of how you're thinking about the balance between pricing and volume? I know you won't want to be exact, but how you're thinking about that.

嘿，早安。事實上，我只是想跟進你提出的最後兩點，喬恩。關於 25 財年 3% 至 5% 的有機銷售成長預期，您能否更詳細地分析一下您如何考慮價格和銷售之間的平衡？我知道你不想說得那麼準確，但你是怎麼想的呢？

And the 3% to 4% category growth assumption, do you think there's good visibility there given the slowing pricing? And then if you bless me with a Part B, I guess just how do you think about earnings flex relative to top line, given some of the top line volatility? Obviously, significant year-over-year gross margin expansion in fiscal '24, but that's been dissipating. You boosted marketing a lot, you've got strong productivity as you mentioned. So there's a lot going in the margin line items. So just how do you think about earnings flex next year relative to top line growth, given some of this volatility? Thanks.

對於 3% 至 4% 的類別成長假設，考慮到定價放緩，您認為這是否具有良好的可見性？然後，如果您能給我 B 部分，我想，考慮到一些營收波動，您如何看待相對於營收的獲利彈性？顯然，24 財年的毛利率較去年同期大幅成長，但這種成長勢頭正在消退。您大大促進了行銷，正如您所說，您的生產力非常高。因此，邊際項目有很多內容。那麼，考慮到這種波動性，您如何看待明年獲利相對於營業收入成長的彈性？謝謝。

Thanks Dara. I'm going to turn it over to Andre to take us through some of the details, and then I'll round out the answer. Go ahead, Andre.

謝謝達拉。我將把這個問題交給安德烈，讓他向我們介紹一些細節，然後我會給出完整的答案。繼續吧，安德烈。

Yes, thanks for the question, Dara. The volume versus price mix contribution is expected to be broadly balanced. We expected markets to return to more sustainable growth rates of 3% to 4%. That is largely happening now. And if you look at the construction of that market growth, about half of that is driven by volume, the other half is driven by price mix. I would expect our construct to look similar for the fiscal year. Obviously, it will differ by quarter and front half versus back half, but broadly balanced between volume and price mix.

是的，謝謝你的提問，達拉。預計銷售與價格組合貢獻將大致平衡。我們預計市場將恢復到3%至4%的更永續的成長率。現在這種情況基本上正在發生。如果你觀察市場成長的結構，你會發現大約一半是由銷售驅動的，另一半是由價格組合驅動的。我希望我們的財政年度結構看起來類似。顯然，每季和上半年與下半年會有所不同，但數量和價格組合大致平衡。

On the margin perspective, you saw us make a choice to continue to invest fully in the business. We have delivered very strong productivity, more than $2 billion in productivity for the year. And we have significantly increased our media support, and we see the results for those investments in the strong growth we continue to deliver in North America, including share growth consistently across every period. The strong results in Europe focus markets, including strong volume growth consistent across the quarters. So we feel good about those investments.

從利潤率的角度來看，您看到我們選擇繼續全力投資該業務。我們實現了非常強勁的生產力，全年生產力超過 20 億美元。我們大幅增加了對媒體的支持，這些投資帶來了我們在北美繼續實現的強勁成長，包括每個時期的持續份額成長。歐洲重點市場業績強勁，包括各季度持續強勁的銷售成長。所以我們對這些投資感到滿意。

We'll continue to be very disciplined. And as you can appreciate, not all of those investments will have paid out. So as we do our post-event analysis, we'll re-assess every step of the way, whether those are better flowing to the P&L or reinvested somewhere else. Productivity for fiscal '25 is also very strong as I mentioned in my previous comments so that will allow us to maintain fully invested both in terms of market support as well as innovation, which is really the underpinning driver for our growth next year.

我們將繼續嚴格遵守紀律。正如您所了解的，並非所有這些投資都會獲得回報。因此，當我們進行事後分析時，我們會重新評估每一步，看看這些步驟是更好地流入損益表還是再投資到其他地方。正如我在之前的評論中提到的那樣，25財年的生產力也非常強勁，這將使我們能夠在市場支援和創新方面保持充分投資，這確實是我們明年成長的基礎動力。

And I would just add two or three comments. One, as Andre indicated, where you see the increase in marketing investment, that is largely in the geographies where we're seeing the growth company that from a top-line standpoint. As you also said, we will continue to monitor the effectiveness of that spending, and we'll adjust either up or down accordingly.

我只想補充兩三條評論。首先，正如安德烈所指出的，行銷投資的增加主要發生在從營收角度來看公司正在成長的地區。正如您所說，我們將繼續監測這些支出的有效性，並相應地進行上調或下調調整。

Also, I just want to make sure we all understand the return on those investments is not an overnight occurrence. We have a commercialization cycle that needs to run its course. We have consumer purchase cycles that can be annual in some cases. While our portfolio is constructed to focus on categories where the product is used daily, that doesn't mean it's purchased daily. And so it sometimes takes a little bit of time to evaluate and see the market response to those investments.

此外，我只是想確保我們都明白這些投資的回報不是一朝一夕就能實現的。我們有一個需要順暢進行的商業化週期。在某些情況下，我們的消費者購買週期可能是一年一次。雖然我們的產品組合側重於日常使用的產品類別，但這並不意味著它每天都會被購買。因此有時需要一點時間來評估並了解市場對這些投資的反應。

But if you look at the last several years, it's generally always been there, and it's been one of the reasons for the growth over the last, call it, six years. As I mentioned in my remarks, plus five, plus six, plus six, plus seven, plus seven, plus four in a more challenging environment. Like Andre, I feel good about the balance that's implied in the guidance and in our internal plans, but it's something we wake up every day and continue to re-evaluate and deliver in an optimal way.

但如果你回顧過去幾年，你會發現它一直都存在，而且這也是過去六年成長的原因之一。正如我在發言中提到的那樣，在更具挑戰性的環境中，加五、加六、加六、加七、加七、加四。和安德烈一樣，我對指導和內部計劃中隱含的平衡感到滿意，但這是我們每天醒來並繼續重新評估並以最佳方式實現的事情。

Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

Good morning, guys, thank you. I was hoping that we could talk about fabric and home and baby and family specifically. It seems like those are the two segments that drove the most disconnect at least versus external forecasts. The release cites promotional spending and at least a degree of share loss across those segments. So maybe you could just drill down further into the headline numbers, give us a bit more context of what you're seeing, both competitively and within your own momentum. And just how we should think about both the drivers and the timing of the build back in those businesses, noting you've obviously got some challenging first half comparisons especially in the current quarter, but just really understanding where you expect those businesses to trend and land over the course of fiscal '25.

大家早安，謝謝大家。我希望我們可以具體談論布料、家居、嬰兒和家庭。看起來，至少與外部預測相比，這兩個部分是導致脫節最嚴重的部分。新聞稿指出，這些部門的促銷支出和至少一定程度的份額損失。因此，也許您可以進一步深入研究標題數字，為我們更多地介紹您所看到的情況，包括競爭方面和您自己的發展勢頭。我們應該如何思考這些業務復甦的驅動因素和時機，並注意到您顯然面臨著一些與上半年的比較挑戰，特別是在當前季度，但真正了解您預計這些業務在 25 財年期間的趨勢和落點。

Morning Steve. Look, home care, I think is just performing outstandingly well, 9% organic sales growth on the year, 13 quarters of sustained share growth and gaining momentum. So I think I'd focus my comments on fabric care.

早安，史蒂夫。你看，家庭護理，我認為表現非常出色，今年有機銷售額增長 9%，連續 13 個季度保持份額增長，並且勢頭強勁。所以我想我會重點討論織物護理。

I would tell you two things. Number one, we are annualizing record periods in Europe with differentiated pricing between competitors, where we had a bit of a tailwind last year that is turning into a high base comp. But structurally, the business is in great shape in Europe. Ariel continues to perform extremely well, the innovation across unit dose, and the broader portfolio, including FE, is doing very well. So I expect that business to re-accelerate very quickly.

我想告訴你兩件事。首先，我們透過與競爭對手進行差異化定價，對歐洲的創紀錄時期進行了年度化，去年我們在這方面獲得了一些順風，現在正轉變為高基數的比較。但從結構上看，歐洲的業務狀況良好。Ariel 繼續表現優異，單位劑量的創新以及包括 FE 在內的更廣泛產品組合都表現良好。因此我預計該業務將很快恢復成長。

In North America, we are just launching the innovation bundle, the spring innovation bundle which is supported with the right level of investment, including promotion investment and merchandising investment. And that's why you see the negative price mix component in the North American business. But the business is picking up momentum, we're growing share. So I expect also North America to continue to move in the right direction on fabric care, and we're very encouraged with the innovation, both the innovation that just launched and the innovation that is in the pipeline.

在北美，我們剛推出創新包，即春季創新包，它得到了適當程度的投資支持，包括促銷投資和商品投資。這就是為什麼你會在北美業務中看到負價格組合成分。但業務正在加速發展，我們的份額正在成長。因此，我希望北美在織物護理方面繼續朝著正確的方向發展，我們對創新感到非常鼓舞，包括剛推出的創新和正在籌備中的創新。

Last point maybe on fabric care, in China specifically, we also made a portfolio choice to focus on the most profitable part of the business. And so there are some short-term implications in terms of base period there. Again, for the longer term, benefit of the China fabric care business, I think that's the right decision, but it's part of the softness that you see right now in the current quarter.

最後一點是關於織物護理，特別是在中國，我們也做出了投資組合選擇，專注於業務中最賺錢的部分。因此，就基期而言，這會產生一些短期影響。再說一次，從中國織物護理業務的長期利益來看，我認為這是正確的決定，但這也是您在本季度看到的疲軟現象的一部分。

Baby care, I'll talk two regions. One is North America. The baby care business on the premium end continues to be doing very well. We have Swaddlers growing share by 1.4%, Cruisers 360 is growing on the premium end of the spectrum where we've been able to innovate. Over the past one to two years, we continue to see the momentum accelerating across Pampers.

嬰兒護理，我講兩個方面。一個是北美。高端嬰兒護理產品業務持續表現良好。Swaddlers 的市佔率成長了 1.4%，Cruisers 360 在高端市場也實現了成長，我們在這方面也進行了創新。在過去的一兩年裡，我們持續看到幫寶適的成長動能不斷加速。

We have an opportunity, we've had an opportunity on Luvs, the mid-tier brand, where we postponed innovation due to some supply chain challenges. That innovation is now in the market. So again, very significant acceleration expected given the innovation just launched in the market over the next few quarters.

我們有機會，我們在中端品牌 Luvs 上有機會，但由於一些供應鏈挑戰，我們推遲了創新。這項創新現已進入市場。因此，考慮到未來幾季剛在市場上推出的創新，預計成長將非常顯著加速。

In Europe, again base period mostly in terms of share data, and that is something we need to work through, and certainly in Europe baby, I think that's one of the areas where we're watching our sufficiency of innovation very closely, simply because the spread versus private label is the most significant. So again, the team is working through strong communication and innovation that will be launching here over the next few quarters.

在歐洲，基期主要體現在份額數據方面，這是我們需要努力解決的問題，當然在歐洲，我認為這是我們密切關注創新充分性的領域之一，因為與自有品牌相比，傳播是最重要的。因此，團隊正在透過強有力的溝通和創新開展工作，並將在未來幾季內推出這些工作。

I'm just going to go in a slightly different direction here, Steve. I fully agree with Andre's description. There are also categories and sectors that are making really strong progress that as we annualize the few challenges within them should it manifest itself more clearly than it is now. So we'll have the benefit of those as we go through the year.

我只是要換個稍微不同的方向，史蒂夫。我完全同意安德烈的描述。有些類別和行業正在取得真正強勁的進展，當我們將其中的一些挑戰年度化時，這些挑戰應該比現在更明顯地體現出來。因此，我們將在這一年中受益。

What am I talking about? If you look at beauty as an example, the aggregate results are being heavily impacted by two things, SK-II and China, both of which should annualize by the second half of the year. If you then step back and look at the balance of the business, Head & Shoulders, in part behind the BARE innovation, increased sales by 7% last year. Pantene, in part behind the Pantene Miracles innovation, grew 10% last year. The personal care side of the business is growing extremely well as well. So I just want to complete the picture in terms of some of the progress that isn't as obvious in an aggregate look but will make a difference going forward.

我在說什麼？以美容產業為例，整體績效受到 SK-II 和中國兩個因素的嚴重影響，這兩個因素都應在今年下半年實現年度化。如果你退一步看看業務平衡，海飛絲在 BARE 創新的部分推動下，去年的銷售額成長了 7%。潘婷 (Pantene) 的銷售額在去年成長了 10%，這在一定程度上得益於潘婷奇蹟 (Pantene Miracles) 的創新。個人護理業務也發展得非常好。因此，我只是想從一些進展的角度來完整地描述一下，這些進展從總體上看並不那麼明顯，但在未來會產生影響。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great, thanks. I was wondering if you could comment a bit, because one thing that's been absent is the discussion of the consumer broadly. So I think it could be helpful to get some perspective on the consumer environment. It feels like in US and Western Europe, from what we've heard from other companies, is that things in the last month or two have gotten demonstrably worse, as a general statement. So curious your perspective on that, and then also differences in channel performance and what you're doing around that in terms of areas of particular focus or investment. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。我想知道您是否可以發表一些評論，因為缺少的一件事就是對消費者的廣泛討論。因此我認為了解消費者環境可能會有所幫助。從我們從其他公司聽到的消息來看，美國和西歐的情況總體上在過去一兩個月明顯變得更糟。所以我很好奇您對此的看法，以及通路表現的差異，以及您在特別關注或投資的領域所做的工作。謝謝。

So from a consumer standpoint, we generally don't see the dynamic that some are describing. And I'm not meaning to discredit their descriptions, but if you look at a couple of dynamics, private label shares as an example, which typically would be increasing during a time of significant consumer pressure, that's not what we're seeing. Private label shares generally both in North America and Europe are in line with pre-COVID levels, and period to period, so last quarter to this quarter, are not changing significantly.

因此，從消費者的角度來看，我們通常看不到某些人所描述的動態。我並不是想要否定他們的描述，但如果你看一些動態，以自有品牌份額為例，它通常會在消費者壓力巨大的時候增加，但這並不是我們所看到的情況。北美和歐洲的自有品牌份額總體上與疫情之前的水平一致，並且各個時期（即上個季度到本季度）之間沒有發生顯著變化。

The second data point that we look at to assess, to answer to your question, is back to volume. Is unit growth declining, and that's again not what we're generally seeing. Now certainly there are some consumers that are I'm sure under increased pressure and are probably modifying their behavior and purchases correspondingly. But in our categories -- and remember, of course, these are less discretionary categories, these are daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. We typically have the best performing product in the market, at least that's our objective. And as a result, we're not seeing any significant consumer-driven impact.

為了回答您的問題，我們要評估的第二個數據點是數量。單位成長率是否正在下降，而這又不是我們普遍看到的情況。現在，我確信有些消費者面臨越來越大的壓力，他們可能會相應地改變自己的行為和購買方式。但在我們的類別中——當然請記住，這些是不太可自由支配的類別，這些是日常使用的類別，性能決定品牌的選擇。我們通常擁有市場上表現最好的產品，至少這是我們的目標。因此，我們沒有看到任何顯著的消費者驅動的影響。

I've been in Europe quite a bit recently, I'll be back there tomorrow, Andre was there earlier in the month of June with many of you at the Deutsdche Bank conference, but also spent time with our business, and I'm not seeing it there either. We remain encouraged as we go forward. It's something that we're very cognizant of and watch very closely, but so far, so good.

我最近經常去歐洲，明天我會回去，安德烈六月初和你們中的許多人一起參加了德意志銀行會議，但也花了一些時間處理我們的業務，我也沒有在那裡看到他。我們繼續前進，並充滿信心。我們對此非常清楚並且密切關注，但到目前為止，一切都很好。

And the market growth rates, I think substantiate the point that Jon made. If you look at the US, I think the key point is over the past 1, 3, 6, 12 months, the category volume growth in our categories is consistently 2%. So consumers are not decelerating consumption across our categories, and similarly if you look at value growth in Europe, it's also very consistent over the same period, so as Jon said, we're watching it, but we don't see it in the data.

我認為市場成長率證實了喬恩的觀點。如果你看看美國，我認為關鍵點在於過去 1、3、6、12 個月，我們各個類別的品類銷售成長率一直維持在 2%。因此，消費者在我們各個類別中的消費並沒有減緩，同樣，如果你看看歐洲的價值增長，你會發現在同一時期它也是非常一致的，所以正如喬恩所說，我們正在關注它，但我們沒有在數據中看到它。

If we look at the responsiveness to many of our strong innovations, I mentioned in my remarks Oral B IO, which is a significant premium to the balance both within the power segment and across power and manual, and it's growing at double digits. We built two share points in the last year, so just an example of responsiveness to strong innovation in these categories where performance drives brand choice.

如果我們看一下我們許多強大創新的響應能力，我在我的評論中提到了 Oral B IO，它在電動領域以及電動和手動領域的平衡方面都有顯著的溢價，並且它正在以兩位數的速度增長。去年，我們建立了兩個共享點，這只是對這些類別中強大創新的響應能力的一個例子，在這些類別中，性能驅動品牌選擇。

Robert Ottenstein, Evercore ISI.

羅伯特‧奧滕斯坦 (Robert Ottenstein)，Evercore ISI。

Great, thank you very much. A couple of follow-ups. Could you just talk a little bit about the enterprise markets, what they would have looked like ex-Argentina, and then as you look at your guidance, how much of an actual rebound in China are you assuming, how much, if any, rebound in the Middle East issues are you assuming, and is that part of the range or is there no rebound at all in the range, if that's clear? Thank you.

太好了，非常感謝。一些後續行動。您能否簡單談談企業市場，看看阿根廷以外的市場是什麼樣子，然後，當您查看您的指導時，您假設中國實際反彈幅度有多大，您假設中東問題反彈幅度有多大（如果有的話），這是否在範圍之內，或者是否根本沒有反彈，如果可以的話？謝謝。

Hey Robert. Enterprise markets, I think in aggregate are performing strongly for the year, up 6%, last year they were up, I think 10%, so I think very strong continued growth. Latin America, as we said, is growing on the year 15% and in the most recent quarter 8%. Europe focus markets up 8% for the year. Where we see headwinds is in the Middle East, in line with what we have described. So you see our Asia-Middle, East-Africa markets impacted by those Middle East headwinds. And again, we expect those to be temporary.

嘿，羅伯特。我認為企業市場總體上今年表現強勁，成長了 6%，去年成長了 10%，所以我認為未來成長會非常強勁。正如我們所說，拉丁美洲今年的成長率為 15%，最近一個季度的成長率為 8%。歐洲重點市場今年上漲了 8%。正如我們所描述的，我們看到的阻力出現在中東地區。因此，您將看到我們的亞洲、中東和東非市場受到中東逆風的影響。再次強調，我們預期這只是暫時的。

The Argentina contribution to the total number is decreasing by almost a point quarter-over-quarter, so it was only 30 basis points in the current quarter. Most importantly, we divested the Argentina business, so that effect will not matter anymore in the current year because it will be removed from the organic sales base as we move through the quarter here.

阿根廷對總數的貢獻比上一季減少了近一個百分點，因此本季僅為 30 個基點。最重要的是，我們剝離了阿根廷業務，因此這種影響在本年度將不再重要，因為隨著我們進入本季度，它將從有機銷售基礎中移除。

In terms of assumptions, I think that's part of the range, right? I would say we largely assume annualization. The upper end of the range would assume some level of improvement, but I think the main contribution to the midpoint of the range would be a normalization and annualization of those headwinds we were describing, including China, SK-II, the Middle East, and again Argentina coming out of the base because of the divestiture of the business.

就假設而言，我認為這是範圍的一部分，對嗎？我想說我們基本上假設年化。這個範圍的上限將假設一定程度的改善，但我認為對範圍中點的主要貢獻將是我們所描述的那些不利因素的正常化和年度化，包括中國、SK-II、中東，以及由於業務剝離而再次脫離基數的阿根廷。

And Robert, my view of those things as its reflected in guidance generally or indirectly is just as Andre described, which is annualization. I think if things improve either in the Middle East or China, we should have the opportunity to deliver, ceteris paribus, even better results than the midpoint of the guidance range.

羅伯特，我對這些事情的看法是，它們通常或間接地反映在指導中，正如安德烈所描述的那樣，即年度化。我認為，如果中東或中國的情況有所改善，我們應該有機會在其他條件相同的情況下取得比指導範圍中點更好的結果。

On the other hand, I'm not assuming that they get worse, and that can always happen, so I think we're centered on a realistic expectation of outcomes.

另一方面，我並不認為情況會變得更糟，而且這種情況總是有可能發生，所以我認為我們應該以對結果的現實預期為中心。

Andrea Teixeira, JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

摩根大通的安德里亞特謝拉 (Andrea Teixeira)。請繼續。

Thank you, good morning. I was hoping you could talk about a bit of the pricing elasticity you're seeing in the category. I do understand what, Jon, you just described as being a very low penetration of private label and consumers are still driving the preference for your brands, but just curious about in laundry specifically.

謝謝，早安。我希望您能談談您在該類別中看到的定價彈性。喬恩，我確實明白你剛才所描述的自有品牌滲透率非常低，消費者仍然偏愛你的品牌，但我對洗衣業特別感到好奇。

You had some promo. And some of the things that you had discussed are not necessarily driven by (inaudible). But just wondering how you're seeing as we see more pricing coming through in this view. You're planning embedding in any of this guidance. I understand it's a balanced approach to the organic sales growth for the midpoint at 4%. But wondering if there is any way of mitigating some of the effect in some of these other places which is natural, and therefore, we can see some pricing go through inflation led and some pricing also led by innovation. Thank you.

你有一些促銷。你所討論的一些事情不一定是由（聽不清楚）。但我只是想知道當我們從這個角度看到更多定價時您是如何看待的。您計劃嵌入任何此類指導。我理解這是實現中間點 4% 有機銷售成長的平衡方法。但想知道是否有任何方法可以減輕其他地方的一些影響，這是自然的，因此，我們可以看到一些定價受到通貨膨脹的影響，一些定價也受到創新的影響。謝謝。

Hi, Andrea. Yes. I mean, pricing and mix has been a positive contribution to our results for 19 years. Don't expect this year to be different. And I think it would be pricing for foreign exchange headwinds and some of the enterprise markets, which is in line with what the market generally executes. I also expect innovation base pricing and trade up as we have a strong innovation pipeline in the year.

你好，安德里亞。是的。我的意思是，19 年來，定價和產品組合一直對我們的業績做出積極貢獻。不要指望今年會有所不同。我認為這將是針對外匯逆風和一些企業市場的定價，這與市場的普遍表現一致。由於我們今年擁有強大的創新管道，我還預期創新基礎定價和交易將會上漲。

From a promotional environment, we see stability at the moment. We have pockets of incremental promotion. We're still operating at about 85% versus pre-COVID levels, and we see general stability. So as I said in the guidance, the construction on the top line, roughly, we see the market have price mix driven and have volume driven. I don't expect our fiscal year numbers to be different than that. But they will look different, obviously, half one versus half two, because the base period. But the general model is still the same as we executed over the last 19 years.

從促銷環境來看，目前我們看到的是穩定的。我們有一些漸進式的促銷活動。與疫情之前的水準相比，我們的營運率仍達到 85% 左右，整體保持穩定。因此，正如我在指導中所說的那樣，就頂線結構而言，大致而言，我們看到市場受到價格組合驅動和數量驅動。我預計我們的財政年度數字不會有所不同。但它們看起來會有所不同，顯然，一半與一半不同，因為基準週期不同。但整體模式與我們過去 19 年所執行的模式仍然相同。

Falorni Filippo, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Falorni Filippo。

Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask about the commodity outlook. Andre, you mentioned $300 million in headwind expected in fiscal '25. Can you maybe talk about the components of the headwind, some of the key commodities including pulp, resins, and also on the transportation side, given the recent rise in ocean freight, any potential impact there? And then in terms of -- I know some of the commodities you cannot hedge, but like just the level of visibility given your contracted rates on that headwind. Thank you.

大家好，早安。我想問一下商品前景。安德烈，你提到預計 25 財年將面臨 3 億美元的逆風。您能否談談逆風的組成部分，包括紙漿、樹脂等一些主要商品，以及運輸方面，鑑於最近海運費上漲，可能產生什麼影響？然後就——我知道有些商品是無法對沖的，但就像你在逆風中簽訂的合約費率的可見度水平一樣。謝謝。

Yes, hey, Filippo. The commodity portfolio is actually at the moment relatively stable. Most of that headwind that is in the guidance is pulp at the moment. We continue to see strong demand on some of the grades and limited supply. So that's driving the run-up. The rest of the portfolio is actually stable.

是的，嘿，菲利波。目前商品組合實際上相對穩定。目前指導中的大部分逆風都是紙漿。我們繼續看到某些等級的需求強勁，但供應有限。這就是推動上漲的因素。投資組合的其餘部分實際上是穩定的。

It won't be that throughout the year as you know. I mean, these things change quickly. So there's a level of variability here, obviously, and we're forecasting a spot rate as we always do.

如你所知，全年都不會出現這種情況。我的意思是，這些事情變化很快。因此，顯然這裡存在著一定程度的變化，我們像往常一樣預測現貨匯率。

The commodity effect as we think through visibility -- look, I mean, the flow through is different by commodity class, but I think we discussed this when we were in the middle of the commodity crisis. It generally takes three months to nine months to flow through the P&L. So I think at the end of quarter one, we probably had relatively good visibility and most of it through half one, and then we'll go step by step. But again, this is one that we forecast on spot, we don't hedge. So the flow through again is the key driver of latency in terms of P&L effect.

當我們透過可見性來思考商品效應時——你看，我的意思是，不同商品類別的流通是不同的，但我認為我們在商品危機中討論過這個問題。流經損益表一般需要三個月到九個月的時間。因此我認為在第一季末，我們可能已經擁有了相對較好的可見性，並且大部分內容都貫穿在第一季度的上半部分，然後我們會一步一步地進行。但再次強調，這是我們現場預測的，我們不進行對沖。因此，就損益效應而言，流通再次成為延遲的關鍵驅動因素。

Transportation. Look, generally, energy, oil is relatively stable. So overall transportation is flat. Yes, we see some impact from increased transportation on the sea routes, but it is not material in the context of the year at this point.

運輸。整體來看，能源、石油相對穩定。因此整體運輸狀況穩定。是的，我們看到海上航線運輸量增加產生了一些影響，但就目前的情況來看，這並不重要。

Peter Grom, UBS.

瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. I wanted to go back to Lauren's question on the consumer, and totally recognize that you may not be seeing some of the indicators that the consumer is under pressure today. But when we think about the 3% to 4% category growth assumptions you're embedding for your outlook, is there any cushion for the 85% of the markets that are currently performing well to potentially slow at all? I totally get the annualization commentary in the Middle East and China, but just would love to get some perspective on what you expect maybe in North America and Western Europe from here. Thanks.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安。希望你一切都好。我想回到勞倫關於消費者的問題，並且完全認識到你可能沒有看到今天消費者面臨壓力的一些指標。但是，當我們考慮到您在展望中嵌入的 3% 到 4% 的類別成長假設時，對於目前表現良好的 85% 的市場來說，是否有任何緩衝可能放緩？我完全理解中東和中國的年度化評論，但只是想了解您對北美和西歐的預期。謝謝。

Hey, Peter. Yes, the 3% to 4% as a global number, look, deconstructing that by market or by region is increasingly difficult. And we somewhat rely on the total aggregate of regions to play out in the 3% to 4% range.

嘿，彼得。是的，3%到4%這個全球數字，按市場或地區來解構它變得越來越困難。我們在某種程度上依賴各地區整體在 3% 到 4% 範圍內的表現。

To your question on the 85% of the business slowing -- what we see is actually what we had expected that those regions slowdown from a market growth in the range of 5% to 8% to this 3% to 4% range because the price mix component is coming down and the volume component is coming up and that stabilization is built into our assumption for the year. So we expect most of those regions to play out the same way that we're projecting the global number, which is 3% to 4%, half of it volume, half of it price mix.

對於您提到的 85% 的業務放緩的問題——我們看到的實際上與我們預期的一樣，這些地區的市場增長率將從 5% 到 8% 放緩到 3% 到 4% 的範圍，因為價格組合部分正在下降，而數量部分正在上升，並且這種穩定已經納入了我們對今年的假設中。因此，我們預期大多數地區的表現與我們預測的全球數字相同，即 3% 到 4%，其中一半是數量，一半是價格組合。

Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

Thank you, good morning. I had a question on your beauty segment. China has been a drag to your volumes for a while as you mentioned, and we've been hearing about the ongoing challenges in the region. But more recently, we're also hearing about the slowdown in the US beauty market. So curious if that's consistent with what you're seeing, and then how should we think about the growth potential for your beauty segment this fiscal year. And is it fair to assume that these challenges could drive a further slowdown from here? Thanks.

謝謝，早安。我對您的美容部分有一個疑問。正如你所說，中國一段時間以來一直拖累著你們的出口量，我們也一直聽說該地區正在面臨挑戰。但最近，我們也聽說了美國美容市場放緩的消息。我很好奇這是否與您的觀察一致，那麼我們應該如何看待本財年美容部門的成長潛力。是否可以合理地認為這些挑戰可能會導致經濟進一步放緩？謝謝。

Hey, Bonnie. If you look at the beauty results outside of China and SK-II, I think they give a better indication of the growth potential and trajectory we're on. The business ex-SK-II is growing 6% in quarter four, 7% in the fiscal year that we just closed.

嘿，邦妮。如果你看看中國和 SK-II 以外的美容業績，我認為它們能更好地表明我們所處的成長潛力和軌跡。除 SK-II 之外的業務在第四季度增長了 6%，在我們剛結束的財年增長了 7%。

When you go through the segments and the core brands, if you look at Head & Shoulders, Pantene, Herbal Essences, for example, grew high single digits to double digits. Those were the best results in the past five years. When you look at our personal care business, Old Spice, Secret and Native, double-digit growth. We talked about -- Jon talked about Native now being and reaching $700 million in sales, 10 times what we got the brand with. And our new brands, (inaudible), are also growing double digits. So I think we see strength across the portfolio there.

例如，當你查看各個細分市場和核心品牌時，你會發現海飛絲、潘婷、草本精華等品牌的銷售額都實現了從高個位數到兩位數的成長。這是過去五年來的最佳成績。如果你看一下我們的個人護理業務，Old Spice、Secret 和 Native 都實現了兩位數的成長。我們談到了——喬恩談到 Native 目前的銷售額已達到 7 億美元，是我們品牌銷售額的 10 倍。我們的新品牌（聽不清楚）也實現了兩位數的成長。所以我認為我們看到了整個投資組合的實力。

North America hair care is up 12%, global hair care is up 9%. And the personal care business, as I said, is doing very well. I think the core of the piece we are annualizing is really China, both on the Olay business and on the SK-II business. And as we said, our expectation is that we'll annualize. We don't yet assume a material acceleration in the fiscal year, so I'll leave it there. But again, I think the core of the business is strong, China is the one piece we need to see annualize across the first half.

北美護髮產品價格上漲 12%，全球護髮產品價格上漲 9%。正如我所說，個人護理業務表現非常好。我認為我們年度化業務的核心實際上是中國市場，包括玉蘭油業務和 SK-II 業務。正如我們所說，我們的期望是實現年度化。我們還沒有假設本財政年度會出現實質加速，所以我就此打住。但我再次認為，業務核心是強勁的，中國是我們需要看到上半年年度化的一部分。

And obviously, the majority of the spaces that we play in in beauty are more foundational versus prestige. And I think where some of the commentary in the marketplace has been directed relative to slowdown is really not in the base segments that we play in, and as Andre said, have continued to see very strong growth in. That's why I wanted to add to the question earlier because I think it's somewhat lost in the aggregate numbers, but I think it's important both for recognition of the team but also recognition of the potential.

顯然，我們在美容領域所涉足的大多數領域都更注重基礎性而非聲望。我認為，市場上有關經濟放緩的一些評論實際上並不涉及我們所涉足的基礎領域，正如安德烈所說，我們繼續看到非常強勁的成長。這就是為什麼我之前想補充這個問題，因為我認為它在總數中有些迷失，但我認為這對團隊的認可和潛力的認可都很重要。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的克里斯凱裡 (Chris Carey)。

Hi, good morning. I know we're later in the call, so apologies for another China question, but maybe a bit more focus. Just it has been sluggish for a few years, which I think is why there's been so many questions about the effect of annualizing.

嗨，早安。我知道我們通話的後面部分了，所以對於另一個有關中國的問題表示歉意，但也許我們應該更加集中註意力。只是這幾年一直不太景氣，我認為這就是為什麼人們對年度化的效果有這麼多疑問。

You're not the only company to see slower results in China. So I wonder if you could just maybe comment on -- clearly, there are macro dynamics in the market versus micro parts of your portfolio, which specifically need some work. SK-II has been well covered by this point. So perhaps you can speak to some other businesses that are performing in line with your expectations or not so that we can have a bit more of a portfolio view on why the annualization should deliver the outcomes you're expecting into the back half of the year.

你們並不是唯一一家在中國業績成長放緩的公司。所以我想知道您是否可以評論一下——顯然，市場中存在宏觀動態，而您的投資組合中的微觀部分則特別需要一些工作。SK-II 至此已經很好的覆蓋了這一點。因此，也許您可以談論其他一些表現符合或不符合您預期的企業，以便我們可以從更多的投資組合角度來了解為什麼年度化應該在下半年實現您預期的結果。

So sorry for another question on China, but it felt important. Thanks.

很抱歉又問了一個關於中國的問題，但我覺得這個問題很重要。謝謝。

Hey, Chris. I'll start and Jon will add. Let me start by saying I think the China business coming from a double-digit growth trajectory through a significant dip. And we don't expect it to go back to double digits; we expect it over time to go to maybe mid singles. So more in line with what we see in other developed markets. So for sure, we don't expect the return to the growth rates that we saw pre-COVID.

嘿，克里斯。我先開始，然後喬恩會補充。首先我想說的是，我認為中國業務在經歷了兩位數的成長軌跡之後，出現了大幅下滑。我們也不認為它會回到兩位數；我們預計隨著時間的推移它可能會達到中等水平。因此這與我們在其他已開發市場看到的情況更加一致。因此，可以肯定的是，我們預計成長率不會恢復到疫情之前的水準。

Many of the effects, specifically in China, SK-II, I think the run rate is now stable. So we're already seeing the run rate in terms of absolute volume and absolute dollar sale flattening. What's not yet there is the base period in line with those run rates. So unless we see a significant run rate reduction, that gives us confidence that the annualization would take place.

很多功效，特別是在中國，SK-II，我覺得運行率現在已經穩定了。因此，我們已經看到絕對銷量和絕對美元銷售額的運行率趨於平緩。目前尚未有與這些運行率相符的基準期。因此，除非我們看到運行率大幅下降，否則我們有信心實現年化。

Maybe other point of confidence here, the toughest category to compete in in China right now is probably baby care. Birth rates are down 15% to 25% depending on how you define the market, and we've been able -- the team has been able to grow sales 6% end grow share in the market. Why? Because the portfolio and the innovation the team designed was very specific to the Chinese consumer, their needs, their preference in terms of superiority, and that's driving results.

也許這裡的另一個信心點是，目前在中國競爭最激烈的類別可能是嬰兒護理產品。根據您如何定義市場，出生率下降了 15% 到 25%，而我們已經能夠——團隊已經能夠將銷售額提高 6%，從而增加市場份額。為什麼？因為團隊設計的產品組合和創新非常針對中國消費者、他們的需求、他們在優勢上的偏好，而這正是推動成果的關鍵。

We've been able to grow the Braun business with strong innovation. So there are pockets of business where we are leading the market. And we need to find our way to that across more categories, which we're working on. Fabric care, as I said, is very focused on the profitable part of the portfolio, which allows them to drive innovation, which allows them to drive category growth, and that's really what's playing out across categories.

我們能夠透過強大的創新來發展博朗業務。因此，在某些業務領域，我們處於市場領先地位。我們需要在更多類別中找到實現這一目標的方法，我們正在努力。正如我所說，織物護理非常注重產品組合的盈利部分，這使他們能夠推動創新，從而推動品類增長，而這實際上就是各個品類正在發生的事情。

But I think the most mechanical driver is run rates are stable and stabilizing, therefore, unless we see a further decline in the market, which is entirely possible. But if those run rates hold, that will drive annualization towards the back half of the year.

但我認為最機械的驅動因素是運行率穩定且正在趨於穩定，因此，除非我們看到市場進一步下滑，這是完全有可能的。但如果這些運行率保持不變，那麼年化率將會在今年下半年上升。

And just to round that out, the largest business for P&G in China is hair care. And we spent the last year-plus as we came out of COVID ensuring that we had very strong hair care plans. I am very pleased with the plans that we've put together and the execution of them on Pantene, the same on Head & Shoulders, really significantly improved propositions, significantly improved packaging, really looking strong.

總而言之，寶潔在中國最大的業務是護髮產品。自從疫情結束以來，我們花了一年多的時間確保我們制定了非常完善的護髮計劃。我對我們制定的計劃以及在潘婷上的執行情況感到非常滿意，海飛絲也是如此，確實顯著改善了產品主張，顯著改善了包裝，看起來確實很強勁。

Andre mentioned somewhere in our discussion that we had made the choice to exit the third brand, which was Vidal Sassoon. So that should not be a source of drag going forward. We're still working to be candid on the plans for Rejoice, but the net of all of that is pretty encouraging.

安德烈在我們的討論中提到，我們已經選擇退出第三個品牌，即維達沙宣 (Vidal Sassoon)。因此這不應該成為未來發展的阻礙。我們仍在努力坦誠地介紹 Rejoice 的計劃，但總體而言，進展相當令人鼓舞。

Kevin Grundy, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的凱文‧格蘭迪。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. A question for both of you, perhaps, just on some context for investment levels, specifically trade spending in advertising and marketing, which are clearly moving higher. Gross margin and expansion there has naturally been supportive.

太好了，謝謝。大家早安。我想問你們兩個一個問題，關於投資水準的一些背景，特別是在廣告和行銷方面的貿易支出，這些支出顯然正在增加。那裡的毛利率和擴張自然提供了支持。

I know it's not lost on you guys you've seen what your key competitor in oral care is doing, advertising and marketing there was the highest as a percent of sales in at least a couple decades. We've seen trade spending move higher there in their North America segment. Advertising and marketing now for Procter has moved up 200 basis points this year, including a big step up of 300 basis points in the quarter, and we talked earlier on the call about (technical difficulty)

我知道你們已經看到了口腔護理領域的主要競爭對手在做什麼，他們的廣告和行銷佔銷售額的百分比至少是幾十年來最高的。我們看到其北美地區的貿易支出增加。寶潔的廣告和行銷費用今年已上漲 200 個基點，其中本季大幅上漲 300 個基點，我們之前在電話會議上談到（技術難度）

If you could offer some context here for higher investment levels broadly we're seeing in the industry and then perhaps a push from a Procter perspective is are we satisfied with the top line payback that we're seeing because spending levels are moving higher and the push would be towards sales, understanding some of the idiosyncratic items in the quarter, was a little bit soft, and we're guiding for growth similar to what we've seen historically. Thank you for all that, but context and any color would be appreciated. Thank you.

如果您能提供一些背景信息，說明我們在行業中普遍看到的更高投資水平，那麼從寶潔的角度來看，推動力可能是我們對所看到的頂線回報感到滿意，因為支出水平正在走高，推動力將轉向銷售，了解本季度的一些特殊項目，有點疲軟，我們預計的增長與我們歷史上看到的類似。非常感謝您提供的一切，但如能提供任何背景和顏色，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Yes, let me start, Kevin. Good morning. Generally, what I'd tell you is the--we're happy with the payout that we're seeing in the markets where we can read the payout cleanly, and that's really where 95% of the investment is, meaning Europe focus markets, some of the Europe enterprise markets, Latin America and North America, and I think the top line results support the overall payout of the aggregate of the media spend.

是的，讓我開始吧，凱文。早安.總的來說，我想告訴你的是——我們對在可以清楚讀取支出的市場中看到的支出感到滿意，而這些市場實際上是 95% 的投資所在，即歐洲重點市場、部分歐洲企業市場、拉丁美洲和北美，我認為頂線結果支持媒體支出總額的總體支出。

We'll obviously go way lower in terms of penetration, and it is probably the strongest push that both Jon and I and Shailesh have as we engage with the businesses to ensure that that spending truly is productive, truly is driving market growth and sales growth, and therefore helps us to deliver top line and bottom line for the quarter and for the fiscal year. If that's no longer the case, then we will change gears and adjust.

我們的滲透率顯然會大幅降低，這可能是喬恩、我和沙伊萊什在與企業合作時所採取的最強有力的推動力，以確保支出真正富有成效，真正推動市場增長和銷售增長，從而幫助我們實現本季度和整個財政年度的營收和利潤。如果情況不再如此，那麼我們將改變方向並進行調整。

In terms of overall spend, I'm actually pleased to see increase in media spend and market support that's market constructive. I think it helps the consumer understand the category better. It helps drive penetration, which is still a huge opportunity across multiple categories, so that's very positive. Again, the promotion environment in aggregate remains productive, and as long as those two results in what we see in North America, which is sustained volume growth on the category and sustained value growth on the category, I think we're in a good place.

就整體支出而言，我很高興看到媒體支出和市場支持的增加，這對市場具有建設性。我認為它有助於消費者更好地了解該類別。它有助於推動滲透，這仍然是跨多個類別的巨大機會，因此這是非常積極的。再次，總體而言，促銷環境仍然富有成效，只要這兩個結果能夠實現我們在北美看到的結果，即該類別的銷售持續增長和價值持續增長，我認為我們就處於有利地位。

And you know, it's something I've been pushing, we've been pushing for some period of time. When you have a strategy that's centered on innovation and superiority and you have in some cases relatively low levels of advertising reach, that total equation doesn't make sense. We used to call it -- David Taylor used to call it confidential superiority. We're trying to, in an effective way and in the most efficient way we can, and I mentioned this earlier, increase reach so that more consumers are aware of our products and the benefits that they provide them.

你知道，這是我一直在推動的事情，我們已經推動了一段時間了。當你的策略以創新和優勢為中心，而在某些情況下你的廣告覆蓋率相對較低時，這種整體等式就沒有意義了。我們過去稱之為——大衛泰勒過去稱之為機密優勢。我們正在嘗試以有效的方式和最高效的方式（我之前提到過）擴大覆蓋面，以便更多消費者了解我們的產品及其帶來的好處。

Obviously that effort at some point reaches the right level of maturity, but we're still on the incline curve in that regard right now, which I think is entirely the right thing to do. As I mentioned earlier, it takes some time temporally for the business to respond. It does not respond overnight, again, because of purchase cycles and commercialization cycles themselves, but as Andre said, take some assurance that you've got a former CFO in the CEO's chair, between the two of us, we're not interested in wasting your money.

顯然，這種努力在某個時候會達到正確的成熟度，但目前我們在這方面仍處於上升階段，我認為這是完全正確的做法。正如我之前提到的，企業暫時需要一些時間來回應。由於購買週期和商業化週期本身的原因，它不會在一夜之間做出反應，但正如安德烈所說，請放心，你的首席執行官職位上有一位前任首席財務官，我們兩人之間，我們不想浪費你的錢。

Olivia Tong, Raymond James.

奧利維亞唐，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Great, thanks. Good morning. Just a follow-up on promotions, if you could just talk about how much is competitors catching up on innovation, driving you to spend more to stay superior, versus a response to the tougher macros and needing to make yourself competitive on price.

太好了，謝謝。早安.關於促銷的後續問題，如果您可以談談競爭對手在多大程度上趕上創新，促使您投入更多資金以保持優勢，而不是應對更嚴格的宏觀經濟並需要在價格上具有競爭力。

Then more importantly, you've obviously done substantial innovation at the premium end. What are you doing as we think about this evolving macro in your mid-tier products to remind consumers of the value proposition there? Thank you.

更重要的是，你們顯然在高端領域做出了實質的創新。當我們考慮中階產品中這個不斷發展的宏觀因素時，您正在做什麼來提醒消費者那裡的價值主張？謝謝。

Hey, Olivia. I think our job is to lead market growth via irresistible superiority, and that starts with product, package and communication, but it includes value as you point out. I don't see that equation shifting. The competitive environment in terms of promotion is relatively stable. Our approach to promotion is relatively stable across the regions where we have the highest visibility, which is Europe and North America, so I don't view that equation as being different.

嘿，奧利維亞。我認為我們的工作是透過不可抗拒的優勢引領市場成長，這始於產品、包裝和溝通，但正如您所指出的，它還包括價值。我不認為這個等式會改變。推廣方面的競爭環境相對穩定。在我們知名度最高的地區，即歐洲和北美，我們的推廣方式相對穩定，所以我認為這個等式沒有什麼不同。

Again, I think our stance on superiority, which we've talked about now for almost a year, to reset the level of superiority we expect our businesses to deliver, which moves from your job is no longer to just win against the next best competitor in the market but is to create superiority at a level where consumers are drawn into the category, so we create new consumption, we create new consumers coming into the category, increasing their usage or trading up, that's really what we are measuring ourselves against, and I think we're making very good progress and I'm very confident in the innovation pipeline we see for the current year. I'm sure Jon has to add more.

再次，我認為我們對優勢的立場，我們已經討論了將近一年，重新設定了我們期望我們的企業提供的優勢水平，你的工作不再只是戰勝市場上的下一個最佳競爭對手，而是在吸引消費者進入該類別的水平上創造優勢，因此我們創造新的消費，我們創造新的消費者進入該類別，增加他們的使用或交易，這才是我們非常有信心我確信喬恩還會補充更多。

On the mid-tier, absolutely our job is to be irresistibly superior at every tier we compete in, and that's why the Luvs innovation is a great example, where--and it's a great example for the strategy at work, because if we are not superior in the mid-tier, the consumer tells us and it shows in the results. So the counter-action to innovate and drive superiority is what we do, and it's really independent of the tier, so at any given point in time, we need to make sure that we deliver all five vectors at every tier, every pack size, every price point in every channel we compete in.

在中端市場，我們的任務絕對是在我們所競爭的每個層級上都做到無可抗拒的領先，這就是為什麼 Luvs 創新是一個很好的例子，也是我們實施策略的一個很好的例子，因為如果我們在中端市場不佔優勢，消費者就會告訴我們，結果也會體現出來。因此，我們所做的就是創新和推動優勢的反制措施，它實際上與層級無關，因此在任何給定的時間點，我們都需要確保在我們競爭的每個管道的每個層級、每個包裝尺寸、每個價格點上提供所有五個向量。

If you just assume for a minute, Olivia, that we're wrong in the ongoing discussion that we've had about consumers being under pressure, and our contention is that that really hasn't manifested itself as of yet, but just assume that we're wrong or that that changes going forward, and to your question on innovation, it becomes very important that we're innovating in categories that are going to become--that are going to see even higher levels of demand, if in fact there's any consumer downturn.

奧莉維亞，如果你假設一下，我們關於消費者面臨壓力的持續討論是錯誤的，我們的論點是，這種壓力目前還沒有真正顯現出來，但假設我們錯了，或者這種情況在未來會發生變化，對於你關於創新的問題，如果確實出現消費者下滑，我們在那些將會出現更高需求水平的類別中進行創新就變得非常重要。

Andre mentioned Luvs. Another example -- I mean, what happens if there's a consumer downturn, people eat at home more often, they're going out less frequently, traveling less frequently, and so categories like hand dishwashing, for example, become important, and our levels of innovation in that category, just as an example, are significant between power spray on Dawn and easy squeeze, and Andre mentioned the growth rates that we're seeing in our dish business.

安德烈提到了 Luvs。另一個例子——我的意思是，如果出現消費低迷，人們更經常在家吃飯，更少外出，更少旅行，那麼會發生什麼情況，例如手洗碗碟等類別就變得重要，我們在該類別中的創新水平，僅舉一個例子，在 Dawn 上的強力噴霧和輕鬆擠壓之間具有顯著的創新水平，安德烈提到了我們在餐具業務中看到的增長率。

Typically, and this was certainly the case in COVID, which was an extreme condition, but people use more paper products if they're staying home more often, so things like the Charmin easy tear scallop perforation, which is driving significant levels of delight and 5% growth on the Charmin business last year, is another example of innovating, continuing to innovate in categories that are going to potentially be even more relevant in the event of a consumer downturn, and obviously just in general, that hand wash business is more of, if you will, a midtier business than the auto dish business, so there's no discrimination in terms of our commitment to innovation.

通常情況下，在 COVID 這種極端情況下尤其如此，但如果人們更頻繁地待在家裡，他們就會使用更多的紙製品，所以像 Charmin 易撕扇貝形穿孔紙這樣的產品，在去年推動了 Charmin 業務的顯著增長和 5%的喜悅，這是創新的另一個例子，在消費低迷的情況下，繼續在可能更具相關性的類別中進行創新，顯然，總的來說，洗手液業務比自動餐具業務更像是一個中端業務，所以在我們對創新的承諾方面沒有任何歧視。

Mark Astrachan, Stifel.

馬克·阿斯特拉坎，Stifel。

Yes. Thanks and good morning, everybody. I wanted to ask about SK-II more broadly and just how do you see this part of today's portfolio for P&G. I guess the slower improvement in China than anticipated, but just curious if you take a look over the last, call it, four or five years. It does seem like the brand has grown in totality a little bit below what I'd peg as the peer group.

是的。謝謝大家，早安。我想更廣泛地詢問有關 SK-II 的問題，您如何看待寶潔目前產品組合中的這一部分。我猜想中國的改善速度比預期的要慢，但我只是好奇，如果你回顧一下過去四、五年的情況。看起來該品牌的整體成長確實略低於我認為的同類品牌。

So I guess I'm curious why you think that is? How you weave in improving trends in China with the overall expectations for the brand on a go-forward basis and I say all that too in the context of weakness pre-dating the wastewater release in Japan? So what is there? Is there more competition, are you doing more from an innovation standpoint to broaden the appeal for the brand? Can you move it beyond prestige skin care? Just broader strokes, again, in the context of how does it fit within the portfolio? Thank you.

所以我很好奇你為什麼會這麼認為？您如何將中國市場的改善趨勢與品牌未來的整體預期結合起來，我還要說，在日本廢水排放之前的疲軟背景下也是如此？那麼那裡有什麼？競爭是否加劇，您是否從創新的角度採取了更多措施來擴大品牌的吸引力？您能將它提升到高端護膚品的水平嗎？再次，從更廣泛的角度考慮它如何融入投資組合？謝謝。

Yes. Hey, Mark. I think your question is specifically on China. I don't think our brand portfolio is something that I would be unhappy with. I think the brand portfolio is strong. When we get it right and when the consumer is willing to engage, I think we show strong progress on baby care even in adverse market conditions.

是的。嘿，馬克。我認為您的問題具體涉及中國。我認為我們的品牌組合不會令我不滿意。我認為品牌組合很強大。當我們做對了並且消費者願意參與時，我認為即使在不利的市場條件下，我們也會在嬰兒護理方面取得長足的進步。

Jon mentioned the progress we see on hair care, on Head & Shoulders and on Pantene. I think the parts of the portfolio where we had our doubts, we made the right choices. So we divested Vidal Sassoon and believe that was the right change in hair care. We have trimmed the fabric care portfolio to ensure that we can focus on the part of the market where we can create value for the consumer and for the company. So I feel good about the product portfolio.

喬恩提到了我們在護髮產品、海飛絲和潘婷方面看到的進步。我認為，對於投資組合中我們存有疑慮的部分，我們做出了正確的選擇。因此，我們剝離了維達沙宣 (Vidal Sassoon) 業務，並相信這是護髮領域的正確改變。我們精簡了織物護理產品組合，以確保我們能夠專注於能夠為消費者和公司創造價值的市場部分。所以我對產品組合感到滿意。

The challenge, I think, in China, if I may, part of that is the channel shift. Because our footprint was disproportionately developed over 30 years to be a brick-and-mortar footprint and the digital acceleration, obviously, with COVID has shifted that into online to a large degree faster than anywhere else in the world. And within that online business, particularly to Douyin, heavily (inaudible) led and heavily promotion led.

我認為，如果可以的話，中國面臨的挑戰部分在於通路轉變。因為我們的足跡在過去 30 年中不成比例地發展為實體足跡，而數位化加速，顯然，隨著新冠疫情的出現，它已經以比世界任何其他地方都快的速度將其轉移到線上。在該線上業務中，特別是抖音，嚴重依賴（聽不清楚）和大力推廣。

And we're taking our time to transition our portfolio to ensure we end up with the right balance between serving consumers in brick and mortar and creating value there and supporting our brands with the right messaging, equity, price stability, and innovation in the online channels. That for me -- that is the transition we're still in, but I think that transition is going well. And it will show that that portfolio that we operate, I think, can sustain mid-single growth and value creation in China.

我們正在花時間轉變我們的產品組合，以確保我們在服務實體消費者和創造價值與透過正確的資訊、公平性、價格穩定性和線上管道創新來支持我們的品牌之間取得適當的平衡。對我來說，我們仍處於轉型期，但我認為轉型進展順利。我認為，這將表明，我們營運的投資組合能夠在中國維持中等規模的成長和價值創造。

Kaumil Gajrawala, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Hey, everybody, good morning. I know as we get deep into the call, it gets quite granular, but if we could bring it back a little bit on something I think might have been missed as we chat global versus domestic, which is maybe just thinking about North America specifically and the first half specifically. What is the direction of travel that you're assuming for the consumer? And when we think about annualization of pricing and such, should we be modeling a drag for North America in the first half that then reverses? Or is it meant to be closer to that balance for the full year of 50:50?

嘿，大家早安。我知道，隨著我們深入討論，它會變得非常細緻，但如果我們可以稍微回顧一下我們在討論全球與國內時可能遺漏的一些內容，這可能只是具體考慮北美和上半年的情況。您認為消費者的出行方向是什麼？當我們考慮定價的年化等因素時，我們是否應該模擬北美上半年的拖累，然後逆轉？或者說這是否意味著全年的比例更接近 50:50？

Kaumil, it's very hard to predict, obviously, by quarter or half one versus half two. I think you're in-going hunch is what I would share as I think the price mix neutralization will continue through half one, and the volume component I think is relatively stable. As I said, the market is continuing to grow at 2%, price mix has come down to about 1.5%. And I think that's what I would expect from a market growth perspective for the front half.

考米爾，顯然，很難根據季度或第一季和第二季做出預測。我認為你的預感就是我要分享的，因為我認為價格組合中和將持續到下半年，而且我認為交易量成分相對穩定。正如我所說，市場繼續以 2% 的速度成長，價格結構已下降至約 1.5%。我認為，從市場成長的角度來看，這就是我對前半年的期望。

Our objective is, as always, to be within that range. So that's my view. But again, that volatility can be driven by different innovation cycles, it can be driven by different promotion cycles, by channel shifts. So there is a lot of variability within that. But purely extrapolating from what we see in the market today, I think your hunch is right.

我們的目標一如既往，就是保持在這個範圍內。這就是我的觀點。但同樣，這種波動可能由不同的創新週期、不同的促銷週期和通路轉變所驅動。因此其中存在著很大的可變性。但僅從我們今天在市場上看到的情況來推斷，我認為你的預感是正確的。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科（Robert Moskow），TD Cowen。

Hi, thanks for the question. I guess the only thing that covered on this call is the Olympic. I think I've seen about 100 ads for Procter & Gamble products. Some of them great. But I haven't noticed an increase in merchandising activity in our Nielsen tracking data in the US around it. And I'm just wondering, do you view the Olympic sponsorship more I say a brand-building exercise for consumers? Or have you been getting, and do you expect to get a lot of merchandising activity around it in the US that we'll be able to see in our tracking? Thanks.

你好，謝謝你的提問。我想這次通話中唯一涉及的事情就是奧運。我想我看過大約 100 則寶潔產品的廣告。其中一些很棒。但根據尼爾森在美國的追蹤數據，我並沒有註意到商品銷售活動增加。我只是想知道，您是否認為奧運贊助更多的是針對消費者的品牌建立活動？或者您已經獲得了並且預計會在美國獲得大量圍繞它的營銷活動，我們將能夠在我們的跟踪中看到？謝謝。

We definitely view support of the Olympics as a brand building opportunity, as a consumer outreach opportunity, and frankly, as a customer outreach opportunity. Where you'll see the activation in store is typically closer to the region of the event. So I wouldn't expect it to have large activation in North America.

我們確實將對奧運的支持視為一個品牌建立機會、一個消費者拓展機會，坦白說，也是一個客戶拓展機會。您在商店中看到啟動的地方通常更靠近活動區域。所以我預計它不會在北美大規模推廣。

I'm headed to Paris overnight tonight, I do expect to see significant activation in Europe. I'll be meeting with many of our retail partner CEOs at the games. We host them there and spend up to a couple days together building plans going forward, which would include both during event and post event activation of the assets that we've put in place for the Olympics.

我今晚要去巴黎，我確實希望看到歐洲發生重大事件。我將在比賽期間與我們的許多零售合作夥伴執行長會面。我們在那裡接待他們，並一起花幾天時間制定未來的計劃，其中包括在賽事期間和賽事後激活我們為奧運會準備的資產。

Just like our earlier discussion on return, this is something that we look at annually. But thus far, it's proving to be an attractive vehicle when we focus the messaging on brands and not so much when we focus the messaging on company, simply because nobody buys P&G, they buy Tide, and Ariel, and Pampers, Pantene, and Head & Shoulders, et cetera.

就像我們之前討論的回報一樣，這是我們每年都會關注的事情。但到目前為止，當我們把訊息傳遞的重點放在品牌上時，它被證明是一個有吸引力的媒介，而當我們把訊息傳遞的重點放在公司上時，它就沒有那麼有吸引力的了，因為沒有人買寶潔，他們買汰漬、碧浪、幫寶適、潘婷、海飛絲等等。

So all good, and I'm looking forward to being there with our customers and our European team over the balance of the week.

一切都很好，我期待著本週剩餘時間與我們的客戶和歐洲團隊在一起。

Okay. Before we officially end the call, I just wanted to provide again some longer-term perspectives. And I'm happy to discuss it at any point during the balance of the day. The collective we, including you, have been through incredible challenges the last number of years, whether that's COVID, whether that's inflation, whether that's war, political divisiveness, regulation, you name it.

好的。在我們正式結束通話之前，我只想再次提供一些長期觀點。我很樂意在一天中的任何時候討論這個問題。包括你們在內的我們大家在過去幾年經歷了難以置信的挑戰，無論是新冠疫情、通貨膨脹、戰爭、政治分歧、監管，等等。

And one of the things that I think is important to reflect on, the quarter's important and we reflected a lot on that today, which is appropriate. But it's also important to step back and say, how is this strategy working, not just for the quarter but for longer periods of time? As I mentioned in my remarks, pre-COVID, during COVID, post COVID, inflation, pricing, and then the big geopolitical struggles that we're all engaged in currently.

我認為需要反思的一件事是，本季度很重要，我們今天對此進行了大量反思，這是恰當的。但同樣重要的是，我們要退一步思考，這個策略的效果如何，不只是針對一個季度，而是針對更長遠的時期？正如我在演講中提到的，新冠疫情之前、疫情期間、疫情之後，通貨膨脹、定價，以及我們目前都在參與的重大地緣政治鬥爭。

Over that six-year period, the team has added $17 billion in sales, which puts us at the 88th percentile of the S&P 500. And at the same time, they've added $5 billion in profit, which puts us at the 93rd percentile of the S&P 500. They've built more than 200 -- I haven't looked today, but before, $200 billion in market cap in that six-year period, which is more value than most of our competitors, I think all but one have created over their entire history as a company. So this is something that is working extraordinarily well. I think that's important to reflect on as we move forward.

在這六年期間，該團隊增加了 170 億美元的銷售額，這使我們位居標準普爾 500 指數的第 88 位。同時，他們的利潤增加了 50 億美元，這使我們位居標準普爾 500 指數的第 93 個百分位。他們已經建立了超過 200 個——我今天沒有看，但之前看，在那六年的時間裡，他們的市值已經達到了 2000 億美元，這比我們的大多數競爭對手都要高，我想除了一家公司之外，其他所有競爭對手在其整個公司歷史上創造的價值都要高。所以這是一項非常有效的工作。我認為在我們前進的過程中反思這一點很重要。

We're in a stronger place in terms of executing against that strategy than we've ever been. We've talked about investment in innovation, we've talked about raising the bar on superiority, we've talked about the progress that we're making on productivity. We've talked about the support levels that our business, we've talked about resuming volume growth in most of the major markets and doing that while building margin and simultaneously increasing our investment in these kinds of things.

在執行這項策略方面，我們現在比以往任何時候都更加強大。我們討論了對創新的投資，討論了提高卓越標準，討論了我們在生產力方面取得的進步。我們討論了我們業務的支持水平，討論了在大多數主要市場恢復銷量增長，並在建立利潤率的同時增加對這類事物的投資。

And I don't see any reason in a -- if we do find ourselves in a more difficult environment from a consumer economic standpoint, one of the things we talk about internally is would we change our approach if we either had confidence that things were going to get remarkably better from a consumer standpoint, or remarkably worse from a consumer standpoint? Would we not want to be in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice? I think that's exactly where we'd want to be in either of those scenarios.

我認為沒有任何理由——如果我們從消費者經濟的角度確實發現自己處在一個更加困難的環境中，我們內部討論的事情之一是，如果我們有信心從消費者的角度看情況會變得顯著好轉，或者從消費者的角度看情況會變得顯著惡化，我們是否會改變我們的方法？難道我們不想進入以性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別嗎？我認為這正是我們在這兩種情況下所希望的。

Would we not want to be able to delight consumers and customers with superior products? I can't imagine how that would be a good idea. Would we not want to have the productivity that enables us to fund those investments and accelerate innovation? Would we not want to have a more agile accountable organization structure?

我們不希望用優質的產品取悅消費者和顧客嗎？我無法想像這會是個好主意。難道我們不想擁有足夠的生產力來資助這些投資並加速創新嗎？我們不想擁有一個更有彈性、更負責的組織結構嗎？

So all these things to me, under any scenario, both because of the results that they deliver and because of the potential they hold to delight consumers, customers, employees, society and shareowners, are the right path forward, which is why we talk about continuing to double down. I have said many times, this will not be a straight line. There are all sorts of things that affect the trend line in the business, but over periods of time, this is by far -- if we just look at our history as a company, it has produced significantly positive results, and I expect that to continue. So I just wanted to share that as we close out the call.

所以對我來說，無論在什麼情況下，這些事情都是正確的前進道路，因為它們帶來的成果以及它們讓消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東滿意的潛力，這就是我們談論繼續加倍努力的原因。我已經說過很多次了，這不會是一條直線。各種各樣的因素都會影響業務趨勢線，但從一段時間來看，到目前為止——如果我們只回顧我們公司的歷史，它已經產生了非常積極的成果，我希望這種情況能持續下去。因此，在我們結束通話時，我只是想分享這一點。

Again, that is not trying to minimize some of the challenges that we've been discussing on the quarter and on the first half of next year. Those are real, they're important to talk about, but I don't think they're controlling as we think about the mid and longer term.

再說一次，這並不是試圖淡化我們在本季和明年上半年討論過的一些挑戰。這些都是真實的，值得討論，但我認為，當我們考慮中期和長期時，它們並不具有控製作用。

Have a great day and look forward to catching up with you soon.

祝您有愉快的一天並期待很快與您見面。

Thanks, everyone.

謝謝大家。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。