寶潔 (PG) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。這次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對帳。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉交給寶潔公司財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

大家，早安。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有董事會主席、總裁兼執行長喬恩‧莫勒 (Jon Moeller)；約翰‧舍瓦利埃 (John Chevalier)，投資者關係資深副總裁。

I'll start with an overview of results for the October to December quarter. Jon will add perspective on our recent results and strategic focus areas and capabilities. We'll close with guidance for fiscal '24 and then take your questions.

我將首先概述 10 月至 12 月季度的業績。喬恩（Jon）將對我們最近的業績以及戰略重點領域和能力提出看法。我們將以 24 財年的指導作為結束，然後回答您的問題。

October to December was another strong quarter. Execution of our integrated strategy drove solid sales and market share results and another quarter of strong margin progress delivering strong earnings and cash results for the quarter. The strong results we've delivered in the first half of fiscal '24 enabled us to raise our outlook for core earnings per share and keep us on track to deliver within our fiscal year guidance ranges for organic sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners.

十月至十二月是另一個強勁的季度。我們綜合策略的執行推動了穩健的銷售和市場份額業績，以及另一個季度的強勁利潤增長，為本季度帶來了強勁的盈利和現金業績。我們在 24 財年上半年取得的強勁業績使我們能夠提高每股核心收益的預期，並使我們能夠在有機銷售增長、現金生產率和現金回報率的財年指導範圍內實現目標。股東。

We continue to see the upper range on organic sales and core EPS as likely outcome for fiscal '23, '24. So moving to second quarter numbers. Organic sales grew 4%. Volume rounded down to a decline of 1 point as continued volume acceleration in North America and Europe focused markets was offset by softer shipments in Greater China, Eastern Europe and Middle East Africa regions due to local issues in select markets.

我們繼續認為有機銷售額和核心每股盈餘的上限可能是 23、24 財年的結果。所以轉向第二季的數據。有機銷售額成長 4%。由於特定市場的本地問題，大中華區、東歐和中東非洲地區的出貨量疲軟抵消了北美和歐洲市場銷售持續成長的影響，銷量下降了 1 個百分點。

Pricing contributed 4 points to sales growth, consistent with the guidance we provided. Mix was neutral to organic sales growth. Growth across categories continues to be broad-based with 8 of 10 product categories holding or growing organic sales this quarter. Home Care, Hair Care and Grooming grew sales high single digits. Fabric Care, Family Care, feminine Care and Oral Care were up mid-single digits. Baby Care was in line with prior year. Personal Health care was down low singles against a very tough comp and a late developing cold and flu season this year.

定價對銷售成長貢獻了 4 個百分點，與我們提供的指導一致。混合對有機銷售成長呈中性。各類別的成長持續廣泛，本季 10 個產品類別中有 8 個維持或成長有機銷售額。家庭護理、護髮和美容產品的銷售額增長了個位數。織物護理、家庭護理、女性護理和口腔護理均實現中個位數成長。嬰兒護理與去年相當。由於今年競爭非常激烈，而且感冒和流感季節發展較晚，個人醫療保健單項下降了。

Skin and Personal Care was down mid-singles due to SK-II in China. Growth was also broad-based across geographies with North America, Europe, Asia Pacific focus markets and Latin America and Europe enterprise markets, each growing organic sales. Focus markets grew 3% for the quarter and Enterprise markets grew 7%.

由於 SK-II 在中國的影響，皮膚和個人護理類別的銷售量在中單品類中下滑。北美、歐洲、亞太重點市場以及拉丁美洲和歐洲企業市場的有機銷售額均實現了成長。本季重點市場成長 3%，企業市場成長 7%。

Organic sales in North America grew 5% with 4 points of volume growth. Over the last 5 quarters, volume growth in North America has been minus 3, flat, then 2% growth, plus 3% and now plus 4%. Strong acceleration well ahead of the underlying market trends. Europe focus markets were up 7% with 3 points of volume growth.

北美地區的有機銷售額成長 5%，銷量成長 4 個百分點。過去 5 個季度，北美地區的銷量成長為負 3%，持平，然後成長 2%，成長 3%，現在成長 4%。強勁的加速遠遠領先於基本市場趨勢。歐洲重點市場成長 7%，銷售成長 3 個百分點。

As expected, both regions saw a step down in pricing contribution to sales growth as a large portion of price increases from last year have annualized. Importantly, volume accelerated in both regions to partially offset the pricing impact. Latin America delivered another very strong quarter with 17% organic sales growth, continued strong results in these regions. There are some targeted issues affecting other markets. Greater China organic sales were down minus 15% versus prior year. Underlying market growth was down mid- to high single digits as consumer confidence weakened further.

正如預期的那樣，這兩個地區的價格對銷售成長的貢獻均有所下降，因為去年價格上漲的大部分已按年計算。重要的是，這兩個地區的銷售量都在加速，部分抵消了價格影響。拉丁美洲又一個非常強勁的季度，有機銷售額成長 17%，這些地區的業績持續強勁。有一些影響其他市場的針對性問題。大中華區有機銷售額較去年下降-15%。由於消費者信心進一步減弱，潛在市場成長下降了中高個位數。

The SK-II brand in Greater China was down 34% due to soft market conditions and a temporary headwind for Japanese brands in the market. Our consumer research indicates SK-II brand sentiment is improving, and we expect to see sequential improvement in the back half. Underlying market trends have softened in some Europe enterprise and Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey following multiple rounds of pricing to offset inflation and due to heightened tensions in the Middle East.

由於市場環境疲軟以及日本品牌在市場上的暫時逆風，大中華區的 SK-II 品牌下跌了 34%。我們的消費者研究顯示 SK-II 品牌情緒正在改善，我們預計下半年會較上季改善。由於多輪定價以抵銷通膨以及中東緊張局勢加劇，一些歐洲企業以及埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯和土耳其等亞太、中東、非洲國家的基本市場趨勢已經疲軟。

Global aggregate value share was up 40 basis points versus prior year, with 28 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share. In the U.S., all outlet value share was up 20 basis points versus prior year. U.S. volume share was up 50 basis points, reflecting strong volume growth. Value share in European focus markets was up 90 basis points over the past 3 months.

全球總價值份額比前一年上升了 40 個基點，在我們排名前 50 名的類別國家組合中，有 28 個國家組合持有或不斷增長份額。在美國，所有門市價值份額比去年增長了 20 個基點。美國的銷售份額上升了 50 個基點，反映出強勁的銷售量成長。過去 3 個月，歐洲重點市場的價值份額上升了 90 個基點。

In summary, North America, Europe focused markets, Asia Pacific focused markets and Latin America, which combined represent 3/4 of company sales, delivered over 6% of organic sales growth in quarter 2 with 3 points of volume growth and 3 points of price mix. The same markets grew 9% in quarter 1 with around 2 points of volume growth and 7 points of price/mix, continued strong organic sales growth with accelerating volume growth to mitigate the anticipated annualization of pricing consistent with our guidance.

總之，北美、歐洲重點市場、亞太重點市場和拉丁美洲合計占公司銷售額的 3/4，第二季的有機銷售額成長超過 6%，銷量成長 3 個百分點，價格成長 3 個百分點混合。同一市場在第一季度增長了 9%，銷量增長約 2 個百分點，價格/組合增長 7 個百分點，持續強勁的有機銷售增長，加速銷量增長，以減輕與我們的指導一致的預期定價年化。

The balance 25% of company sales, including Greater China, Eastern Europe and Middle East Africa were impacted by local market issues we described. Quarter 2 organic sales for this group were down 5 points versus prior year. We expect most of these effects in these regions to be temporary or annualizing. SK-II consumption is sequentially improving.

公司其餘 25% 的銷售額（包括大中華區、東歐和中東非洲）受到我們所描述的當地市場問題的影響。該組第二季的有機銷售額比去年同期下降了 5 個百分點。我們預計這些地區的大部分影響都是暫時的或每年都會發生的。 SK-II消費量持續改善。

We continue to expect China market growth to improve and over time, return to mid-singles and we expect market pressures in the Middle East and Turkey to ease over time. Moving to the bottom line. Core earnings per share were $1.84, up 16% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 18%.

我們繼續預期中國市場成長將有所改善，並隨著時間的推移，恢復到中等水平，我們預計中東和土耳其的市場壓力將隨著時間的推移而緩解。移動到底線。每股核心收益為 1.84 美元，比上年增長 16%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股盈餘成長了 18%。

Core operating margin increased 400 basis points at 520 basis points of gross margin expansion were partially offset by increased marketing investments wage and benefit inflation and foreign exchange impacts in SG&A. Currency-neutral core operating margin increased 470 basis points. Productivity improvements were very strong 340 basis points help to the quarter.

核心營業利潤率成長 400 個基點，毛利率成長 520 個基點，但部分被行銷投資增加、薪資和福利通膨以及銷售、一般管理費用 (SG&A) 的外匯影響所抵銷。貨幣中性的核心營業利益率增加了 470 個基點。生產力的提高非常強勁，為本季帶來了 340 個基點的幫助。

Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 95%. We returned $3.3 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.3 billion in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchase. In summary, against what continues to be a challenging and volatile operating environment, strong overall progress in the first half of the year, keeping us on track for our fiscal year guidance ranges.

調整後的自由現金流生產力為 95%。我們向股東返還了 33 億美元的現金、約 23 億美元的股利和 10 億美元的股票回購。總而言之，在仍然充滿挑戰和動蕩的經營環境中，上半年的整體進展強勁，使我們能夠保持在財政年度指導範圍的軌道上。

Now I'll pass it over to Jon for his perspective.

現在我將把它轉交給喬恩，聽聽他的觀點。

Thanks, Andre, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by underscoring a few points Andre made in his discussion of the top line trends. Overall, continued strong top line progress, 22nd consecutive quarter of 4% or better organic sales growth, volume acceleration in key markets, increases in aggregate market shares. This, despite several notable headwinds, which should be temporary, tensions in the Middle East will hopefully ease.

謝謝安德烈，大家早安。我首先強調安德烈在討論頂線趨勢時提出的幾點。總體而言，營收持續強勁成長，連續 22 個季度實現 4% 或更好的有機銷售成長，主要市場銷售加速，整體市場份額增加。儘管存在一些明顯的阻力（這應該是暫時的），但中東的緊張局勢有望緩解。

Enterprise market volume impacts following price increases are usually temporary. While we can't talk specifics of future pricing in any market, more stable foreign exchange and commodity costs will ideally reduce the need for additional large price increases. I spent 6 days in China with the team 2 weeks ago.

價格上漲對企業市場數量的影響通常是暫時的。雖然我們無法談論任何市場未來定價的細節，但更穩定的外匯和大宗商品成本將理想地減少進一步大幅提價的需要。兩週前我和團隊在中國待了 6 天。

I met with consumers in their homes with retail CEOs with our team and with several government officials. In my view, the long-term China opportunity remains intact. The near term is likely to present some challenges. We'll see what happens with the global cough/cold season as a soft start to the season either reverses or eventually annualizes.

我在消費者家中會見了我們團隊的零售執行長以及幾位政府官員。我認為，中國的長期機會仍然完好無損。短期內可能會帶來一些挑戰。我們將看看全球咳嗽/感冒季節會發生什麼，因為該季節的軟啟動要么逆轉，要么最終年化。

No guarantee of immediate bounce back in any of these, but reason to believe they will improve over time. In addition to continued aggregate top line progress of very strong bottom line, mid-teens core earnings per share growth 2 quarters in a row, while increasing investments in innovation, brand building and market growth. Our team continues to execute our strategy with excellence, enabling strong results over each of the past 5 years, pre-COVID, during COVID and through a historic inflationary and pricing cycle.

不能保證這些都會立即反彈，但有理由相信它們會隨著時間的推移而改善。除了持續保持非常強勁的總營收進展外，每股核心收益連續兩季成長，同時增加了對創新、品牌建立和市場成長的投資。我們的團隊繼續以卓越的方式執行我們的策略，在過去 5 年中、新冠疫情之前、新冠疫情期間以及歷史性的通貨膨脹和定價週期中，每年都取得了強勁的業績。

I want to thank them both for what they delivered and for what they're working to continue to accomplish. Our integrated strategy is unchanged. A focused portfolio of products in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. The portfolio is performing, delivering broad-based growth across nearly all categories in most geographies for several years.

我要感謝他們所做的貢獻以及他們正在努力繼續實現的目標。我們的綜合戰略沒有改變。日常使用類別的重點產品組合，性能驅動品牌選擇。該投資組合表現良好，多年來在大多數地區的幾乎所有類別中實現了廣泛的成長。

The announcements we made in December to change our go-to-market approach in Argentina and Nigeria will further sharpen our focus and strengthen our value creation potential. A good example of dynamic nature of our strategy and our desire to aggressively allocate resources to where they create the most shareowner value.

我們在 12 月宣布改變在阿根廷和尼日利亞的市場進入方式，這將進一步明確我們的重點並增強我們的價值創造潛力。這是我們策略的動態性質以及我們積極將資源分配到創造最大股東價值的地方的願望的一個很好的例子。

Next strategy element. Ongoing commitment to an investment in irresistible superiority. Through innovation across the 5 vectors of product package, brand communication, retail execution and value holistically defined. Leveraging that superiority to grow markets and our share in them to jointly create value with retail partners. The plans across the businesses are broader and stronger than at any time in the recent past as each team works to increase their margin of superiority and consumer delight.

下一個策略元素。持續致力於投資於不可抗拒的優勢。透過產品包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和整體定義價值五個方面的創新。利用這種優勢來發展市場和我們在市場中的份額，與零售合作夥伴共同創造價值。各個業務部門的計劃比最近任何時候都更廣泛、更強大，每個團隊都在努力提高自己的優勢和消費者滿意度。

Superior innovations that are driven by deep consumer insights. Communicated to consumers with more effective and efficient marketing programs, executed in stores and online in conjunction with retailer strategies to grow categories and our brands. Price to deliver superior value across each price tier where we compete. Smooth [Terra] Charmin ultrasoft with Scallop Edge perforations, a great example of consumer insights driving innovation to improve the end-use experience.

由深入的消費者洞察所驅動的卓越創新。透過在商店和網路上執行的更有效和高效的行銷計劃與消費者進行溝通，並結合零售商策略來發展品類和品牌。在我們競爭的每個價格層提供卓越價值的價格。光滑的 [Terra] Charmin 超軟帶扇貝邊緣穿孔，是消費者洞察推動創新以改善最終使用體驗的一個很好的例子。

Consumer response to the new product has been overwhelmingly positive and is driving word-of-mouth recommendations on social media. Gillette's superior propositions like the GilletteLabs razor with an exfoliated bar that removes dirt and debris before the blades continue to drive growth in the global grooming category. GilletteLabs has reached shares greater than 20% in markets like Spain and France and is building momentum in the U.S. and China.

消費者對新產品的反應非常積極，並推動了社群媒體上的口碑推薦。吉列的卓越產品，例如帶有去角質棒的 GilletteLabs 刮鬍刀，可以在刀片之前去除污垢和碎屑，繼續推動全球美容類別的成長。 GilletteLabs 在西班牙和法國等市場的份額已超過 20%，並且正在美國和中國發展勢頭強勁。

The global grooming category is on track for $1 billion of retail sales growth this fiscal year with Gillette driving 2/3 of the increase, well ahead of our global share. Superior innovations like Dawn Powerwash and Dawn EZ-Squeeze in the U.S.; and Fairy Power Spray and Fairy Max in Europe are disproportionately driving market growth in hand dishwashing with value share in the U.S. approaching 67%, nearly 50% across Europe Focus markets.

本財年，全球美容類別零售額預計將實現 10 億美元的零售額成長，其中吉列貢獻了 2/3 的成長，遠遠領先於我們的全球份額。美國的 Dawn Powerwash 和 Dawn EZ-Squeeze 等卓越創新產品；歐洲的 Fairy Power Spray 和 Fairy Max 大大推動了手洗餐具市場的成長，其在美國的價值份額接近 67%，在歐洲重點市場的價值份額接近 50%。

Third, strategy element, productivity. Improvement in all of our operations to fund investments in innovation, brand building and market growth to mitigate costs and currency challenges and to expand margins and generate cash. We're reaccelerating productivity back to pre-COVID levels with an objective for gross savings in cost of goods of up to $1.5 billion before tax. Visibility to more savings opportunity is increasing enabled by platform programs with global application across categories like Supply Chain 3.0.

第三，戰略要素，生產力。改善我們所有的業務，為創新、品牌建立和市場成長的投資提供資金，以減輕成本和貨幣挑戰，並擴大利潤和產生現金。我們正在將生產力重新加速恢復到新冠疫情爆發前的水平，目標是稅前總成本節省高達 15 億美元。透過供應鏈 3.0 等跨類別的全球應用平台計劃，更多節省機會的可見性正在增加。

We're working in a new way with retailers on the totality of the supply chain end to end versus simply to optimize each piece. One example, using data and machine learning algorithms to optimize truck scheduling, to minimize idle time for drives. We're also using AI tools to optimize fill rates and for dynamic routing sourcing optimization, $200 million to $300 million of savings opportunity across these areas. We have line of sight to savings from improved marketing productivity, more efficiency and greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste while increasing reach.

我們正在以一種新的方式與零售商在整個供應鏈上進行端到端的合作，而不是簡單地優化每一個環節。舉一個例子，使用數據和機器學習演算法來優化卡車調度，以最大限度地減少駕駛的空閒時間。我們也使用人工智慧工具來優化填充率和動態路由採購優化，在這些領域可以節省 2 億至 3 億美元的成本。我們著眼於透過提高行銷生產力、提高效率和效果、避免頻率過高、減少浪費、同時擴大影響範圍來實現節省。

We're taking targeted steps to reduce overhead as we digitize more of our operations. The team has delivered strong cost savings in the first half of the year and plans to build on this momentum. Next, constructive disruption of ourselves in our industry, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends, technologies and capabilities that will shape the future of our industry and extend our competitive advantage.

隨著我們更多業務的數位化，我們正在採取有針對性的措施來減少開銷。該團隊在上半年實現了強勁的成本節約，並計劃在此基礎上再接再厲。接下來，對我們行業的建設性顛覆，願意改變、適應和創造新趨勢、技術和能力，這些將塑造我們行業的未來並擴大我們的競爭優勢。

We continue to be a constructive disruptor of brand building, in-housing more of the media planning and placement activity using our proprietary tools and consumer data to increase effectiveness and efficiency of our communication. We're disrupting traditional lab-based innovation models to dramatically increase the speed and breadth of discovery.

我們繼續成為品牌建立的建設性顛覆者，使用我們的專有工具和消費者數據進行更多的媒體規劃和投放活動，以提高我們溝通的有效性和效率。我們正在顛覆傳統的實驗室為基礎的創新模式，以顯著提高發現的速度和廣度。

Last but clearly not least, we've designed and continue to refine and empowered, agile and accountable organization model, also an increasingly diverse organization, enabling us to better serve an increasingly diverse set of consumers. So strong progress across all strategic pillars with significant opportunity ahead of us.

最後但顯然並非最不重要的一點是，我們設計並繼續完善授權、敏捷和負責任的組織模式，也是一個日益多元化的組織，使我們能夠更好地服務日益多元化的消費者。所有戰略支柱都取得如此強勁的進展，我們面臨著重大機會。

No reason to standstill as illustrated by the 4 focus areas we've outlined previously. Supply Chain 3.0 is delivering productivity as we just talked. We're also driving improved capacity plan, greater supply agility, flexibility, data transparency, scale and resilience, all the way up and down the supply chain, inclusive of our retail partners.

正如我們之前概述的 4 個重點領域所示，沒有理由停滯不前。正如我們剛才所說，供應鏈 3.0 正在提供生產力。我們也推動改善產能計劃，提高供應敏捷性、靈活性、數據透明度、規模和彈性，涵蓋整個供應鏈，包括我們的零售合作夥伴。

All of this is driving higher quality, increased supply assurance and higher on-shelf availability of our products and of course, better cash and cost structures. These programs improve superiority with consumers and further strengthen what is already the top ranked supply chain by our retail partners and third-party industry surveys.

所有這些都推動了我們產品的更高品質、更高的供應保證和更高的貨架可用性，當然還有更好的現金和成本結構。這些計劃提高了消費者的優勢，並進一步加強了我們的零售合作夥伴和第三方行業調查中已經排名第一的供應鏈。

Environmental sustainability, superior propositions for consumers, customers and share owners that are sustainable, driving sales and profitability while reducing the footprint of our operations, enabling consumers to reduce their footprint and innovating to deliver cross-industry solutions for some of our most pressing challenges.

環境永續性，為消費者、客戶和股東提供可持續的卓越主張，推動銷售和盈利，同時減少我們的營運足跡，使消費者能夠減少他們的足跡並創新，為我們一些最緊迫的挑戰提供跨行業解決方案。

A good example is the 4-chamber aerial platinum pods innovation that we launched in a new cardboard package, extending our superiority advantage in product performance while improving sustainability by enabling great wash results even in cold water, already contributing to a 2-degree celsius reduction in wash temperatures in Europe against a 5-degree target also extending packaging superiority with a more attractive and more sustainable cardboard box.

一個很好的例子是我們在新的紙板包裝中推出的4 室空中鉑金莢創新，擴大了我們在產品性能方面的優勢，同時透過即使在冷水中也能實現良好的洗滌效果來提高可持續性，已經有助於降低2 攝氏度歐洲的洗滌溫度達到了 5 度的目標，同時透過更具吸引力和更永續的紙板箱擴大了包裝優勢。

Digital acumen, leveraging data and digitization to delight consumers, streamline the supply chain, increase quality, drive productivity, all driving shareowner value. Fourth, the superior value equation for all employees inclusive of all genders, races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, ages and abilities for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent and are best positioned to serve all consumers.

數位敏銳度，利用數據和數位化來取悅消費者、簡化供應鏈、提高品質、提高生產力，所有這些都推動股東價值。第四，為所有員工提供卓越的價值方程式，包括所有性別、種族、民族、性取向、年齡和所有職位的能力，以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才，並處於為所有消費者服務的最佳位置。

These 4 focus areas are not new and separate strategies. They simply strengthen our ability to execute the strategy. Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization reinforce and build on each other.

這 4 個重點領域並不是新的、獨立的策略。它們只是增強我們執行策略的能力。我們在投資組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織方面的策略選擇相互加強、相互促進。

We continue to believe that there is merit and doubling down on this integrated strategy, starting with the commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners fueled by productivity. We remain as confident as ever in our strategy and our ability to drive market growth and to deliver balanced growth and value creation to delight consumers, customers, employees, society and shareowners.

我們仍然相信這項綜合策略是有價值的，並會加倍努力，首先承諾在生產力的推動下，向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供令人難以抗拒的卓越主張。我們對我們的策略和推動市場成長以及實現平衡成長和價值創造以取悅消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東的能力一如既往地充滿信心。

Now back to Andre for guidance.

現在回到安德烈尋求指導。

Thanks, Jon. As I mentioned, we expect the environment around us to continue to be volatile and challenging from input costs to currencies to consumer, retailer and geopolitical dynamics. However, our strong first half results enable us to raise or maintain key guidance metrics for the year. We're maintaining our guidance range for organic sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year. This outlook includes a normalization in underlying market growth rates that we began to see in our second quarter results as the market laps the last wave of cost recovery pricing. For P&G, we expect the pricing contribution to top line growth to reduce by an additional 1 to 2 points in the back half of the year. We will continue to price for new innovations when warranted and to mitigate FX impacts.

謝謝，喬恩。正如我所提到的，我們預計周圍的環境將繼續波動並充滿挑戰，從貨幣的投入成本到消費者、零售商和地緣政治動態。然而，我們上半年強勁的業績使我們能夠提高或維持今年的關鍵指導指標。我們維持本財年有機銷售額成長 4% 至 5% 的指導範圍。這一前景包括基礎市場成長率的正常化，隨著市場經歷了最後一波成本回收定價，我們在第二季的業績中開始看到這一點。對寶潔來說，我們預計今年下半年定價對營收成長的貢獻將再減少 1 至 2 個百分點。我們將在必要時繼續為新創新定價，並減輕匯率影響。

On the bottom line, enabled by very strong earnings growth in the first half of the year, we're raising our outlook for fiscal '24 core earnings per share from a range of 6% to 9% to a range of 8% to 9% growth versus last fiscal year. This guidance implies slower bottom line growth in the second half -- as we highlighted last quarter, the second half of the fiscal year will see less pricing benefit as we annualize more prior year increases.

總而言之，由於今年上半年非常強勁的獲利成長，我們將 24 財年每股核心獲利的預期從 6% 至 9% 上調至 8% 至 9%與上一財年相比的成長百分比。這項指引意味著下半年的利潤成長將放緩——正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣，隨著我們將上一年的成長按年化計算，本財年下半年的定價收益將減少。

We will also see less commodity cost benefit in the second half. Wage and benefit inflation continues throughout the supply chain and our direct costs and FX headwinds will increase versus the first half of the fiscal year. As I mentioned, we continue to expect organic sales and core EPS growth towards the upper end of the renewed guidance ranges. We estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $800 million after tax in fiscal '24 based on current spot prices.

下半年我們也將看到商品成本效益減少。整個供應鏈的薪資和福利通膨持續存在，與本財年上半年相比，我們的直接成本和外匯不利因素將會增加。正如我所提到的，我們繼續預期有機銷售額和核心每股盈餘成長將達到新指引範圍的上限。根據當前現貨價格，我們預計大宗商品將在 24 財年稅後帶來約 8 億美元的推動力。

This is consistent with the outlook we provided last quarter. We continue to expect foreign exchange will be a headwind of approximately $1 billion after tax for the fiscal year. The vast majority of this impact is driven by Argentina and is heavily skewed towards the back half of the year. This outlook is based on a forecast for continued significant devaluation of the Argentine peso, which we expect to largely offset with appropriate price increases.

這與我們上季度提供的前景一致。我們仍然預計，本財年的稅後外匯將帶來約 10 億美元的阻力。這種影響絕大多數是由阿根廷推動的，並且嚴重偏向今年下半年。這一前景是基於對阿根廷比索持續大幅貶值的預測，我們預計這種貶值將在很大程度上被適當的價格上漲所抵消。

We now expect higher net interest expense of approximately $100 million after tax versus prior year, general inflation and higher wage and benefit costs are also earnings headwinds for the year. We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%. We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $5 billion up to $6 billion in common stock combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.

我們現在預計稅後淨利息支出將比上年增加約 1 億美元，整體通膨以及工資和福利成本上升也是今年獲利的不利因素。我們預計調整後的自由現金流生產力為 90%。我們預計本財年將支付超過 90 億美元的股息，並回購 50 億至 60 億美元的普通股，並計劃向股東返還 140 億至 150 億美元的現金。

This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions or major production stoppages are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

這項展望是基於當前市場成長率估計、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。預計貨幣大幅疲軟、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治幹擾或重大生產停頓不會出現在指導範圍內。

Finally, we'll be closely watching the more volatile regions we mentioned earlier, including the health of the China market, and we'll be keeping close watch of competitive dynamics to ensure P&G brands remain a superior value for consumers and retailers. Now I'll hand it back to Jon for closing thoughts.

最後，我們將密切關注我們先前提到的波動較大的地區，包括中國市場的健康狀況，我們將密切關注競爭動態，以確保寶潔品牌對消費者和零售商保持卓越的價值。現在我將把它交還給喬恩以結束我的想法。

We continue to be very pleased with the strong results P&G people are delivering and a challenging operating and competitive environment, continued excellent execution of an integrated market-constructive strategy. I want to thank each of them for that. While we expect volatile consumer and macro dynamics to continue, we remain confident that the best path forward is to delve down on the strategy that has enabled strong results and remain committed to delivering balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation for shareowners.

我們仍然對寶潔員工所取得的強勁業績、充滿挑戰的營運和競爭環境、持續出色地執行綜合市場建設性策略感到非常滿意。我要為此感謝他們每一個人。雖然我們預期消費者和宏觀動態將繼續波動，但我們仍然相信，最好的前進道路是深入研究已取得強勁業績的策略，並繼續致力於為股東提供平衡的頂線和底線成長以及價值創造。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just wanted to focus on the back half. Clearly, the 4% Q2 core sales growth result wasn't as strong as the 7% Q1 delivery, which is very robust results. So obviously, some quarterly volatility here. Can you just give us some perspective for the fiscal back half relative to Q2? And why that first half volatility as you think through some of the key geographies and volume versus price/mix and some of the temporary impacts Jon mentioned. And then just same question on EPS basically. Obviously, very strong first half that continued in Q2. Full year guidance implies a more muted second half. So is there some conservatism baked in there? Help us understand that. I know Andre touched on it, but maybe give us a bit more detail there on the back half from an earnings perspective. .

所以只想專注於後半部分。顯然，第二季 4% 的核心銷售成長結果不如第一季 7% 的交付強勁，後者是非常強勁的結果。顯然，這裡存在一些季度波動。您能否給我們一些相對於第二季的財政後半段的看法？當你思考一些關鍵地區和數量與價格/組合以及喬恩提到的一些臨時影響時，為什麼會出現上半年的波動。然後基本上就是關於每股盈餘的同樣的問題。顯然，上半場表現非常強勁，並延續到了第二季。全年指引意味著下半年將更加平靜。那麼其中是否存在一些保守主義呢？幫助我們理解這一點。我知道安德烈談到了這一點，但也許從收益的角度給我們提供了更多關於後半部分的細節。 。

Dara, let me start and Jon will add. On the top line, if you look at the first half, we are right in line with what we're projecting for the year, an average of 5%, and we obviously then expect about 5% for the back half.

達拉，讓我開始，喬恩會補充。最重要的是，如果你看看上半年，我們與今年的預測一致，平均為 5%，顯然我們預計下半年約為 5%。

We see volatility, as you had pointed out in some geographies that we mentioned in the script. I think the core point though is the core geography, 75% of the sales are performing very well. We continue to see acceleration in volume growth in North America with 4% volume growth, 5% sales growth.

正如您在腳本中提到的某些地區所指出的那樣，我們看到了波動性。我認為核心點是核心地域，75%的銷售額表現非常好。我們繼續看到北美銷量成長加速，銷量成長 4%，銷售額成長 5%。

Europe is very strong. Latin America, very strong. We continue to see volume acceleration in most places. So that gives us confidence that, that projects well for the second half of the year. We also expect some of the volatility that we experienced in quarter 2 to disappear or at least improve in the second half. The SK-II sentiment is improving based on our consumer research in China. And we are continuing to drive innovation, equity investment and really relying on our most loyal and passionate user base to help amplify that messaging, which is working well.

歐洲非常強大。拉丁美洲，非常強大。我們繼續看到大多數地方的成交量加速成長。這讓我們相信，今年下半年的情況會很好。我們也預計第二季度經歷的一些波動將在下半年消失或至少有所改善。根據我們對中國消費者的研究，SK-II 的情緒正在改善。我們正在繼續推動創新、股權投資，並真正依靠我們最忠誠、最熱情的用戶群來幫助放大這一訊息，目前效果良好。

So we expect the effects to improve year-over-year -- quarter-over-quarter. From an enterprise market standpoint, we also view the pricing impacts that are impacting some of the markets like Turkey, to disappear over time as pricing in the market is established, competitive pricing catches up. And then the impact of the tensions in the Middle East certainly, hopefully, will improve as well.

因此，我們預期效果將逐年改善，逐季改善。從企業市場的角度來看，我們也認為，隨著市場定價的建立，競爭性定價的趕上，影響土耳其等一些市場的定價影響將隨著時間的推移而消失。那麼中東緊張局勢的影響當然也有望得到改善。

So very strong continued performance on the core markets, which are 75% of the sales, and we expect somewhat improving trends and stabilization in the other 25%. On the EPS side, very strong performance in the front half, 17% in quarter 1, 16% in quarter 2 sets us up well for the upper end of the guidance range, which is reflected in the tightening of the guidance.

佔銷售額 75% 的核心市場的持續表現非常強勁，我們預計其他 25% 的趨勢會有所改善並趨於穩定。在每股收益方面，前半段的表現非常強勁，第一季成長 17%，第二季成長 16%，為我們達到指導範圍的上限奠定了良好的基礎，這反映在指導的收緊上。

However, to keep in mind, we see a reversal of a number of effects that have supported the half 1 results. We saw the majority of the commodity help flow through in the first half, and this is part of the improvement in quarter 2 EPS. We see the flow-through happening faster than we would have anticipated in some instances. So that leaves less of a contribution for the second half.

然而，請記住，我們看到支持 half 1 結果的許多效應發生了逆轉。我們看到大部分商品幫助在上半年流通，這是第二季每股收益改善的一部分。我們發現在某些情況下流通發生的速度比我們預期的要快。因此，下半場的貢獻就更少了。

We also have the majority of the foreign exchange hurt in the second half. About 75% of FX hurt of the $1 billion will hit the second half. As we indicated, the majority of that is Argentina. So we will try to offset the appropriate pricing.

下半年我們的大部分外匯也受到了影響。 10 億美元的外匯損失中約 75% 將影響到下半年。正如我們所指出的，其中大部分是阿根廷。所以我們會盡量抵銷適當的定價。

Nevertheless, the growth impact is tilted towards the back half. Price/mix contribution will ease. We saw still significant contribution in the first half. That will lower by 1 to 2 points in the back half, which also has an impact on EPS growth.

然而，成長影響偏向後半部。價格/組合貢獻將會減輕。上半年我們仍然看到了巨大的貢獻。下半年這一數字將下降 1 至 2 個百分點，這也對 EPS 成長產生影響。

And lastly, we continue to see wage inflation in our own operations as well as in our supply chain flowing through. Now that being said, if everything goes well, could there be upside? Sure. But we believe that guidance is appropriately reflecting the potential variability here. So those are the core drivers. John, any perspective on that.

最後，我們繼續看到我們自己的業務以及我們的供應鏈中的工資上漲。話雖這麼說，如果一切順利的話，還會有上升空間嗎？當然。但我們認為，指導意見適當地反映了這裡的潛在變化。這些是核心驅動力。約翰，對此有什麼看法嗎？

I have nothing to add on Andre's bottom line perspective. I would just reiterate one thing and add one thing on the top line. There are 2 questions that we've been discussing as we've gone through the first half of the year.

對於安德烈的底線觀點，我沒有什麼好補充的。我只想重申一件事並在第一行添加一件事。今年上半年我們一直在討論兩個問題。

The first relates to our ability to reaccelerate volume, which we've talked about several times in this conversation this morning. And I just want to reiterate how encouraging that progress has been. We've said it before, but it's worth saying again, in our largest market, North America, past 5 quarters, minus 30, plus 2, plus 3, plus 4, Europe, which tends to be fairly price-sensitive volumes plus 3. So that gives us confidence in terms of the momentum of the business on a forward basis.

第一個與我們重新加速成交量的能力有關，我們在今天早上的談話中已經多次討論過這一點。我只想重申這項進展是多麼令人鼓舞。我們之前說過，但值得再說一遍，在我們最大的市場北美，過去5個季度，負30，正2，正3，正4，歐洲，這往往對價格相當敏感，成交量正3 . 因此，這讓我們對業務的未來發展動能充滿信心。

The other thing I would just call out that adds to this discussion is the breadth of the top line progress that the team has been making. 8 out of 10 categories held or grew sales in the quarter that we just completed. 21 of our top 25 brands did the same. And if you look at our top 12 brands, 9 of those are growing at high singles or better rates.

我要指出的另一件事是，團隊一直在取得的頂線進展的廣度。在我們剛完成的季度中，十分之八的類別保持或成長了銷售額。我們排名前 25 名的品牌中有 21 個也做了同樣的事情。如果您查看我們的 12 個頂級品牌，您會發現其中 9 個品牌的單曲率較高或更高。

And that's inclusive of all the challenges that we're managing around the world. So that gives us confidence that the top line growth that we've been delivering should continue, just as Andre said. And that should provide the ability to continue to deliver decent levels of bottom line growth as well.

這包括我們在世界各地應對的所有挑戰。因此，這讓我們有信心，我們一直在實現的收入成長應該繼續下去，正如安德烈所說。這也應該提供繼續實現可觀的利潤成長水準的能力。

The next question comes from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I just -- I want a clarification, Andre to your answer to Dara's question and then I have a question. So the clarification, I think when you responded regarding organic sales growth for the back half and tacking to the year, the 5%, is it -- is it that Procter is tracking to 5% organic sales for the year? Or were you seeing an expectation for 5% organic sales growth for the back half? I wasn't quite sure if you were talking full year or specifically about the back half.

我只是——安德烈，我想澄清你對達拉問題的回答，然後我有一個問題。因此，我想澄清一下，當您回答下半年的自然銷售成長以及今年的 5% 時，寶潔公司今年的有機銷售成長是 5% 嗎？或者您預計下半年有機銷售額將成長 5%？我不太確定你是在談論全年還是特別是下半年。

Bryan. No, what I was talking was the full year expectation. So again, we reiterate the range of 4 to 5, but we see the possibility and strong probability that we'll be able to deliver towards the upper end of that range for the fiscal year.

布萊恩.不，我說的是全年預期。因此，我們再次重申 4 至 5 的範圍，但我們看到我們能夠在本財年實現該範圍上限的可能性和可能性很高。

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great. So with the very sizable gross margin delivery this quarter and the outlook for the full year, there's a ton of reinvestment going back in the P&L, right? And this quarter, you called out the specifics, but I think also that's pretty well implied for the second half as well.

偉大的。因此，鑑於本季毛利率非常可觀，以及全年前景，損益表中有大量再投資，對嗎？本季度，您提出了具體細節，但我認為這也很好地暗示了下半年。

So I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about incremental areas of reinvestment because the basis points are big and the dollars are even bigger. And so it just -- I don't know, like it might sound ridiculous, but it gets to a point where you start to worry externally? Is there excessive amount of reinvestment. So I'd love it, John, if you could talk through your perspective on that on making sure there's not money effectively being spent less efficiently in the P&L simply because you have that much flexibility.

所以我很好奇你是否能談談再投資的增量領域，因為基點很大，美元也更大。所以這只是——我不知道，這聽起來可能很荒謬，但它已經到了你開始擔心外部的地步了？再投資是否過多。所以，約翰，如果你能談談你對此的看法，以確保不會因為你有很大的靈活性而在損益表中有效地花掉錢，我會很高興。

Are you saying, Lauren, that you want 30% core earnings per share growth, just kidding.

勞倫，你是說你想要每股核心收益成長 30%，開玩笑嗎？

So that's kind of what I'm getting at, right? Yes.

這就是我的意思，對吧？是的。

I'll speak first on this, and I'm sure Andre has some perspective as well. But if you look at the amount of innovation that's coming to market, both currently and in the future, and if you look at the opportunity to fully penetrate households with that innovation, in ways that delight them and improves their lives. Now is not the time to be pulling back on investments in marketing or commercialization efforts of that innovation.

我先談談這一點，我相信安德烈也有一些觀點。但是，如果你看看目前和未來進入市場的創新數量，如果你看看有機會讓這些創新以讓他們高興並改善他們生活的方式全面滲透到家庭中。現在還不是撤回對該創新的營銷或商業化工作的投資的時候。

And that's where the majority of the incremental spend is -- has come from and will come from. We look very carefully. I don't want to ignore your question on the effectiveness of that spend and continue to see through the addition of many tools and data sets that we can increase the effectiveness of that advertising, increase the return rates of that advertising as you see in our bottom line, while increasing reach.

這就是大部分增量支出的來源——已經來自並將來自。我們看得很仔細。我不想忽視您關於該支出有效性的問題，並繼續通過添加許多工具和數據集來看到我們可以提高該廣告的有效性，提高該廣告的回報率，正如您在我們的底線，同時擴大影響範圍。

So that's what we'll be forcing on -- we'll be very disciplined in that effort. Neither Andre or I or the rest of the team has any desire to spend money that isn't working for us.

這就是我們將要強制執行的──我們將在這方面非常自律。安德烈、我或團隊其他成員都不想花對我們沒有用的錢。

Yes. And maybe to add, we just talked with our team actually about being very granular about the assessment of the ROI. So we don't have good investments cover for bad investments. So really go down to the country level, to the brand level to the channel level when we assess whether we are getting a payout on the investments. But the majority of the spend, as John said, is really focused on driving market growth. When you think about the opportunity on FE, for example, we've created 100% of the market growth in North America on FE, and it's still the biggest opportunity the team has in order to continue to accelerate both our own growth in a constructive way and the market given the low penetration FE has fabric enhancers.

是的。也許要補充一點，我們剛剛與我們的團隊討論瞭如何非常細緻地評估投資回報率。因此，我們沒有用好的投資來掩飾不良的投資。因此，當我們評估投資是否得到回報時，要真正深入國家層面、品牌層面和通路層面。但正如約翰所說，大部分支出實際上都集中在推動市場成長。例如，當你想到 FE 上的機會時，我們在 FE 上創造了北美 100% 的市場成長，這仍然是團隊擁有的最大機會，以便繼續加速我們自己的建設性成長。鑑於FE 具有織物增強劑的低滲透率，該方式和市場。

Oral-B, another example, power Oral-B was launched Oral-B iO 10, and we're also expanding distribution of Oral-B iO 3, 4 and 5. We've led 70% of global market growth with those launches. So communicating the benefit and driving penetration is a huge opportunity. So be assured, we look at ROI very carefully. And again, market growth continues to be the main area of focus when we invest incrementally.

Oral-B，另一個例子，強力 Oral-B 推出了 Oral-B iO 10，我們還在擴大 Oral-B iO 3、4 和 5 的分銷。透過這些發布，我們引領了全球市場成長的 70% 。因此，傳達好處並推動滲透是一個巨大的機會。所以請放心，我們非常仔細地考慮投資報酬率。當我們增量投資時，市場成長仍然是我們關注的主要領域。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Terrific. I was wondering if you could go into a little bit more detail on the state of the consumer in your 2 most important markets, the U.S. and China, how consumer demand develop through the quarter and into January? And when you talk about China, if you could also touch upon travel retail and maybe what SK-II was on a greater China basis, including Travel Retail as well?

了不起。我想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下您的兩個最重要市場（美國和中國）的消費者狀況，以及整個季度和一月的消費者需求如何發展？當你談論中國時，你是否也可以談談旅遊零售，也許SK-II在大中華區的基礎上，包括旅遊零售？

I'll start, Robert, look, the U.S. continues to be a very solid, continues to impress I think a very smooth transition from pricing annualizing and overall consumption coming up in terms of volume, which is enabling us to post the volume improvement Jon was quoting over the past few quarters and still accelerating ahead of market with 4% volume growth and 50 basis points of market share growth.

首先，羅伯特，看，美國仍然非常穩固，繼續給人留下深刻印象，我認為從定價年化和總體消費量的過渡非常平穩，這使我們能夠發布銷量改善喬恩過去幾個季度的報價仍然領先市場，銷量成長4%，市佔率成長50 個基點。

We continue to see trade up within our propositions. So as consumers come win, maybe at a lower tier and a lower value proposition, they continue to trade up in the U.S., which speaks to the health of the proposition, but also the health of the consumer and willingness to invest. The last data point I'll give you on the U.S. is we are able to grow as private label share or slightly up. We are up the same range.

我們繼續看到我們的主張範圍內的貿易上升。因此，當消費者獲勝時，也許是在較低的層次和較低的價值主張上，他們會繼續在美國進行升級換代，這說明了這一主張的健康性，也說明了消費者的健康和投資意願。我將向您提供的關於美國的最後一個數據是，我們能夠以自有品牌份額增長或略有上升。我們處於同一範圍。

So some consumers will look for value in private label, but an equal, if not higher amount of consumers find better value in our propositions as we drive continued superiority via innovation. So I feel very strongly about U.S. We'll continue to invest to drive more market growth there, but the consumer is resilient and the business is doing well.

因此，有些消費者會尋找自有品牌的價值，但隨著我們透過創新推動持續的優勢，同等數量（甚至更多）的消費者會在我們的主張中發現更好的價值。因此，我對美國的感覺非常強烈。我們將繼續投資以推動那裡的市場成長，但消費者俱有彈性，業務也表現良好。

On China, I'll begin, I'm sure Jon has an incremental perspective, but the China opportunity remains impact. If you look at the underlying market size, if you look at the potential development of the middle class, if you look at the ability to drive category penetration in our categories, all of those are huge opportunities for us.

首先，關於中國，我確信喬恩有漸進的視角，但中國的機會仍然具有影響力。如果你看看潛在的市場規模，如果你看看中產階級的潛在發展，如果你看看推動我們品類滲透的能力，所有這些對我們來說都是巨大的機會。

And all of those point to continued investment and commitment to the Chinese market. We have a very capable organization, and we continue to be very optimistic that we can create value honestly, when the market requires market growth to be driven by manufacturers, I think that positions us very well with our retail partners in China to have a competitive advantage and execute the model that we know how to execute in many parts of the world.

所有這些都表明對中國市場的持續投資和承諾。我們擁有一個非常有能力的組織，我們仍然非常樂觀地認為，當市場需要製造商驅動市場成長時，我們能夠誠實地創造價值，我認為這使我們與中國的零售合作夥伴處於非常有利的位置，從而擁有具有競爭力的競爭優勢。優勢並執行我們知道如何在世界許多地方執行的模型。

In the short term, we mentioned it in the script, consumer sentiment is not fully recovered yet, and that is reflected in the results. Again, if you want to take a silver lining, we see the attractiveness of key opinion leaders and heavy discounting in key consumption periods decreasing. And that's actually good for us.

短期來看，我們在劇本中提到，消費者信心尚未完全恢復，這也反映在結果上。同樣，如果你想抓住一線希望，我們會發現關鍵意見領袖的吸引力和關鍵消費時期的大幅折扣正在下降。這其實對我們有好處。

And we believe that focus on brand equity, a focus on strong everyday value via priority will allow us to help grow the market back to mid-single digits and strengthen our position in the market. Last point on SK-II, no specifics. The numbers we're quoting. Obviously, on the quarter, minus 34% include the domestic travel retail channel.

我們相信，專注於品牌資產，透過優先關注強大的日常價值將使我們能夠幫助市場恢復到中個位數，並鞏固我們在市場中的地位。最後一點關於SK-II，沒有具體說明。我們引用的數字。顯然，本季負34%包括國內旅遊零售通路。

Nothing else to add there or other than we remain confident that as the sentiment improves, which we see already with continued investment in SK-II, we see that business recovering over the back half.

沒有什麼可以補充的，除了我們仍然相信，隨著市場情緒的改善，我們已經看到了對 SK-II 的持續投資，我們看到業務在下半年開始復甦。

Robert, as Andre suggested, I'll just provide a little bit of additional color on China, having spent a fair amount of my career involved in that market and having just spent almost a full week there. In digesting the Q2 numbers, the P&G numbers in China, you have to think about a couple of things. One is SK-II, which just for clarity for everybody, is really driven by an anti-Japanese brand sentiment, which Andre described in our opening remarks, that's related to the release of wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear facility.

羅伯特，正如安德烈所建議的那樣，我將提供一些關於中國的額外信息，我在中國市場度過了相當多的職業生涯，並且剛剛在那裡度過了幾乎整整一周。在消化第二季的數據、寶潔公司在中國的數據時，你必須考慮一些事情。其中之一是 SK-II，為了讓大家清楚起見，它實際上是由反日品牌情緒驅動的，安德烈在我們的開場白中描述了這一點，這與福島核設施廢水的排放有關。

And we've had not identical but similar consumer sentiment dynamics in the past as it relates to this brand and as it relates to the relationship between those 2 countries. And it has always resolved itself with SK-II moving to higher heights -- so if you look at the decline in China on the quarter on our business, I don't know the exact number, but basically, think of it as 50% of that being the dynamic I just described and 50% of it being the market dynamics.

過去，我們的消費者情緒動態雖然不完全相同，但很相似，因為它與這個品牌以及這兩個國家之間的關係有關。隨著 SK-II 邁向更高的高度，這個問題總是會自行解決——所以如果你看看我們本季度中國業務的下滑，我不知道確切的數字，但基本上可以認為是 50%其中50% 是我剛剛描述的動態，而50% 是市場動態。

The second thing that Andre referred to is important to understand as well. The heaviest purchase period historically in China was in November. I'm talking years past. And that was always a little bit disconcerting for us because a disproportionate amount of product moved during Double 11. It filled consumer pantries -- it often have filled some retailer pantries. It often are inventories and warehouses. It often moved at heavily discounted prices. The amount of movement during that period this year was much lower.

安德烈提到的第二件事也很重要。中國史上採購最旺的時期是11月。我說的是幾年前的事。這總是讓我們有點不安，因為雙 11 期間移動的產品數量不成比例。它填滿了消費者的食品儲藏室 - 它經常填滿了一些零售商的食品儲藏室。通常是庫存和倉庫。它經常以大幅折扣的價格移動。今年那段時期的流動量少很多。

And as Andre said, we view that as a good thing. -- and it's a temporary impact -- a quarterly impact the Q2 impact on the indices, but it moves us into a healthier position. If you think about the medium to longer term, Andre mentioned the addition of -- the expected addition of 200 million middle income consumers to China's population.

正如安德烈所說，我們認為這是一件好事。 - 這是暫時的影響 - 第二季度對指數的影響，但它使我們處於更健康的位置。如果你考慮中長期，安德烈提到中國人口預計將增加 2 億中等收入消費者。

That's very encouraging. Also, I mentioned I was in homes, I was in stores, I was with our retail partners. They are -- they remain encouraged about the future of China. I was telling -- I was talking to our organization at the end of the trip our organization in China. And I told them I had never seen as much alignment in the market between our intentions and our strategy, our retailers' intention and their strategy and the government's intention and their strategy.

這非常令人鼓舞。另外，我提到我在家裡、在商店、與我們的零售合作夥伴在一起。他們仍然對中國的未來感到鼓舞。我是在告訴我們——在中國之行結束時，我正在與我們的組織交談。我告訴他們，我從未見過市場上我們的意圖與我們的策略、我們的零售商的意圖與他們的策略以及政府的意圖與他們的策略如此一致。

All focused on what's being referred to as quality market growth. As Andre suggested, that's a very good thing for us. We can play very effectively and help with that agenda, help society on a parallel path. And so you put all that together, and I agree it with Andre and I said it earlier, I think the growth potential here remains intact. There are some specific items that exacerbate the trend that you're seeing on the quarter, but I expect this will continue to be a source of both growth and value creation for P&G. Sorry for the long answer, but I think it's important.

所有這些都集中在所謂的優質市場成長上。正如安德烈所建議的，這對我們來說是一件非常好的事情。我們可以非常有效地發揮作用，幫助實現這項議程，幫助社會走上平行的道路。所以你把所有這些放在一起，我同意安德烈的觀點，我之前說過，我認為這裡的成長潛力仍然完好無損。有一些具體項目加劇了您在本季看到的趨勢，但我預計這將繼續成為寶潔公司成長和價值創造的來源。抱歉回答太長，但我認為這很重要。

The next question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

A risk of provoking another long answer. I guess what struck me this morning is just the competence and front foot in this, if that's a word in both of your comments this morning. And I think, Jon, your strategic perspective destruct me as particularly assertive.

有引發另一個長答案的風險。我想今天早上讓我印象深刻的是在這方面的能力和領先地位，如果這是你今天早上的評論中的一個詞的話。我認為，喬恩，你的策略視角讓我變得特別有自信。

Now I say that in the context that on the outside, I think based on some of the market challenges you called out in China, the Middle East, et cetera, this quarter. Concerns on to grow that P&G is likely to be thrown off course or maybe getting complacent. And I guess my question is, why is that wrong? And what to you are the keys to keeping the organization's eye on the ball focused grounded and executing on all those strategic pillars that you went through?

現在我在外部背景下這麼說，我認為是基於您在本季在中國、中東等地區提出的一些市場挑戰。人們越來越擔心寶潔公司可能會偏離正軌或變得自滿。我想我的問題是，為什麼這是錯的？對您來說，保持組織的注意力集中在您所經歷的所有策略支柱上並執行的關鍵是什麼？

Thanks, Steve. The -- I want to step back first. We do face a lot of challenges in the world that we all live in, and those have impacted our business. But stepping back probably 5 years, the level of challenge has always existed, whether it was COVID, whether it was the highest consumer inflation in 40 years, whether it was the 50% reduction, 5-0 and our profit over 2 years as a result of commodities, foreign exchange and transportation costs and this organization overcame all of that.

謝謝，史蒂夫。 - 我想先退後一步。在我們所生活的世界中，我們確實面臨著許多挑戰，這些挑戰影響了我們的業務。但退一步看，大概 5 年前，挑戰的程度一直存在，無論是新冠疫情，還是 40 年來最高的消費者通膨，無論是 50% 的削減、5-0 以及我們 2 年多的利潤。這是商品、外匯和運輸成本的結果，而這個組織克服了這一切。

They've overcome the challenges we faced in the last quarter, and that gives me a huge amount of confidence that we have the ability, the skills, the strategy and the agility to continue to meet challenges face first and work through them in ways that are constructive for consumers, for customers, for employees, for society and for share owners.

他們克服了我們在上個季度面臨的挑戰，這給了我很大的信心，我們有能力、技能、策略和敏捷性，繼續應對首先面臨的挑戰，並以以下方式解決這些挑戰：對消費者、客戶、員工、社會和股東都具有建設性。

We talk a lot internally about the complacency and the evils associated with it. So it's front and center in our thought process. I have a couple of kind of [trite signs] that I use in communicating with the organization and one of them is that complacency pills. You don't see a complacent organization when you're looking at the breadth of growth that they're delivering, when you're looking at the continued after a decade, continued work on productivity, yielding the kind of margin progress that we saw this quarter.

我們在內部經常談論自滿情緒以及與之相關的罪。所以它是我們思考過程的前沿和中心。我在與組織溝通時使用了幾種[陳腐的跡象]，其中之一就是自滿藥丸。當你看到他們所實現的成長廣度時，當你看到十年後持續不斷的生產力工作，產生我們所看到的那種利潤增長時，你不會看到一個自滿的組織本季度。

You don't see it as they reinvest that into growing markets and to growing household penetration and shares. We're not immune to it, so you're right to raise it. But I feel, as you said, very -- I feel the organization, not just myself, are very much on their front foot as they move to take advantage of the opportunities that we see in front of us. I frankly never seen as many opportunities.

你看不到這一點，因為他們將其再投資到不斷增長的市場以及不斷增長的家庭滲透率和份額。我們不能倖免，所以你提出這個問題是對的。但我覺得，正如你所說，我覺得整個組織，而不僅僅是我自己，都非常積極地利用我們面前的機會。坦白說，我從來沒有見過這麼多的機會。

Now there's a lot of work associated with capitalizing on those opportunities. And there will be lots of challenges and forces that will be working against us in that endeavor. But the accomplishments of the midterm passed the most recent past, the reflection of the work that the organization is doing all the way down the income statement and the innovation progress that I'm seeing not only in market or coming to market, but as we review the pipelines across each of the categories, also give me a good degree of confidence.

現在有許多工作與利用這些機會有關。在這項努力中，將會有許多挑戰和力量對我們不利。但中期的成就已經過去了，反映了該組織正在做的工作一直到損益表，以及我不僅在市場或即將進入市場，而且在我們看到的創新進展。查看每個類別的管道，也給了我很大的信心。

The next question comes from Filippo Falorni of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Jon, I wanted to go back to China. You mentioned clearly that there was an impact from the cycling of the 11/11 shipments. And can you give us some sense like how down it was China and SK-II during that period and maybe some of the accelerate coming out of December that gives you some confidence in the improvement in the country in the second half?

喬恩，我想回中國。您明確提到 11/11 出貨週期有影響。您能否給我們一些感覺，例如中國和 SK-II 在此期間的情況如何，也許 12 月出現的一些加速讓您對下半年該國的改善充滿信心？

I apologize. I honestly don't operate at that level of data aggregation. So I don't have the answer with any degree of specificity. But I know the impact was there. I know it's a good thing for us long term, and I apologize, but I'm just going to leave it there.

我道歉。老實說，我並沒有從事這種等級的資料聚合工作。所以我沒有任何具體的答案。但我知道影響是存在的。我知道這對我們長期來說是一件好事，我很抱歉，但我只想把它留在那裡。

The next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的克里斯凱裡。

The U.S. volume growth improvement is very constructive. It's quite a bit better than what we can see in the U.S. Nielsen data, for example, I know the data is far from perfect, but I wonder if you could just help characterize whether you have any nontrack channel boost or in general, talk about some of the specifics of what has really driven this volume improvement over the past 5 quarters?

美國銷量成長的改善是非常有建設性的。這比我們在美國尼爾森數據中看到的要好得多，例如，我知道該數據遠非完美，但我想知道您是否可以幫助描述是否有任何非軌道通道提升或總體而言，談談過去5個季度真正推動銷售成長的具體因素是什麼？

And I think maybe just connected to that, if you could. There's a lot of debate right now across consumer staples around just what does drive volume improvement, whether that's promotional activity or increased advertising or just the lapping of pricing. And I find it interesting today that this dynamic of sequential volume growth. And I wonder if you can just maybe talk about, in general, why this seems to be happening, what you're doing to drive this or whether this is just the natural evolution of markets post substantial pricing?

我想如果可以的話，也許與此有關。目前，消費必需品領域存在著許多關於推動銷售成長的因素的爭論，無論是促銷活動還是增加廣告，還是只是定價的調整。今天我發現這種銷售量持續成長的動態很有趣。我想知道您是否可以總體上談論為什麼會發生這種情況，您正在採取哪些措施來推動這一趨勢，或者這是否只是大幅定價後市場的自然演變？

Chris, let me start. On the noncovered channel side, we've seen noncovered outpaced cover channels for a period of time. This is not different. There's nothing specific happening there. We see a trend of some consumers going into larger pack sizes. Those are in club. Those are online. And many of those effects continue, but there's nothing differential between covered and noncovered channels, both are performing well.

克里斯，讓我開始吧。在非覆蓋通道方面，我們已經看到非覆蓋通道在一段時間內超過了覆蓋通道。這沒什麼不同。那裡沒有什麼具體的事情發生。我們看到一些消費者開始購買更大包裝的趨勢。那些都在俱樂部裡。這些都是在線的。其中許多影響仍在繼續，但覆蓋通道和非覆蓋通道之間沒有任何區別，兩者都表現良好。

Noncovered a little bit ahead of covered. So that's why you don't see the results in the track data. What's driving the growth? I would argue it's all of the above that you've mentioned, right? I think we're seeing pricing lapping consumers seeing the pricing normalizing on the shelf. We don't see an increase in promotion depth of frequency, quite frankly. We are still operating at about 85% of pre-COVID levels from a volume sold on deal perspective. Competition is in a similar range.

未覆蓋的比覆蓋的稍早。這就是為什麼您在賽道數據中看不到結果的原因。是什麼推動了成長？我認為這就是您提到的上述所有內容，對吧？我認為我們看到定價正在下降，消費者看到貨架上的定價正常化。坦白說，我們沒有看到促銷深度和頻率的增加。從交易量來看，我們的營運水準仍約為新冠疫情前的 85%。競爭也處於類似的範圍內。

So there's no escalation of promotion. But what drives it is strong innovation, innovation that is focused on growing the market and strong communication of that innovation in a very targeted way leveraging our capability to be very detailed and very intentional on who we talk to at what point in time with what messaging. And the U.S. is probably our most sophisticated market in that regard, and it showed the ROIs and in the results back to Lauren's question earlier. A few examples, just the Gillette business innovation on the core with the Labs razor provides a growth driver.

所以沒有升級的促銷。但驅動它的是強大的創新，專注於發展市場的創新，以及以非常有針對性的方式對創新進行強有力的溝通，利用我們的能力，非常詳細、非常有意識地確定我們在什麼時間點與誰交談，傳遞什麼消息。在這方面，美國可能是我們最成熟的市場，它顯示了投資回報率和結果，回到了勞倫之前的問題。舉幾個例子，僅以吉列實驗室刮鬍刀為核心的商業創新就提供了成長動力。

But adding new jobs to be done like female facial hair removal on male and female body hair removal, incremental jobs that were communicated appropriately of the benefit of the product drive incremental consumption. I mentioned Oral-B penetration is still low on the electric toothbrush.

但增加新的工作要做，例如女性臉部除毛、男性和女性身體除毛，適當傳達產品好處的增量工作會推動增量消費。我提到 Oral-B 在電動牙刷上的滲透率仍然較低。

And as we're converting more and more users that drives incremental growth with more innovation, but also expansion of the lower-priced options of Oral-B iO 3, 4 and 5 and then the launch of Oral-B 10. Last example I'll give you, and then I'll let Jon add is Olay Super serum just to cover a few of the categories here is a new serum -- the most successful new serum in the category, 30% of those users are new to the category.

隨著我們轉換越來越多的用戶，透過更多創新推動增量成長，同時也擴大 Oral-B iO 3、4 和 5 的低價選項，然後推出 Oral-B 10。最後一個例子我給你，然後我會讓喬恩補充玉蘭油超級精華素，只是為了涵蓋一些類別，這裡是一種新精華素——該類別中最成功的新精華素，其中30% 的用戶是新使用的類別。

So again, communication, strong innovation, premium propositions and bringing new cruises to the categories what's driving that accelerated volume growth.

再說一次，溝通、強大的創新、優質的主張以及為該類別帶來新的郵輪是推動銷售加速成長的因素。

And I'll just pile on with -- I agree with everything that Andre said. So just a couple more examples to show you, again, the breadth of the innovation that's being commercialized currently. He talked about Olay, very exciting innovation in our hair care business as well. An example, Head & Shoulders BARE which is a more efficacious antidandruff offering with the BARE minimum number of ingredients, 9 to be exact in an eco-friendly package, 45% less plastic, and it's one of the drivers of growth, particularly in North America on the Head & Shoulders brand, which is up 8% fiscal year-to-date.

我會繼續說——我同意安德烈所說的一切。因此，再舉幾個例子來再次向您展示目前正在商業化的創新的廣度。他談到了玉蘭油，這是我們護髮業務中非常令人興奮的創新。舉個例子，海飛絲BARE 是一種更有效的去頭皮屑產品，其成分數量最少為BARE（準確地說是9 種，採用環保包裝），塑料含量減少45%，是增長的推動力之一，尤其是在北方美國海飛絲 (Head & Shoulders) 品牌，本財年迄今成長了 8%。

Another example in a different category, Swiffer PowerMop, which is driving that business up 11% fiscal year-to-date and has built both volume and value share at about 1.5 points level. So that's -- and back to Steve's question on complacency, this is what we need to keep doing. And that's why we talk about the best path forward being doubling down on exactly these things. They do drive market -- they do drive volume. They do drive sales, and they do it profitably.

另一個不同類別的例子是 Swiffer PowerMop，該公司在本財年迄今推動該業務增長了 11%，並且銷量和價值份額都達到了約 1.5 個百分點的水平。所以，回到史蒂夫關於自滿的問題，這就是我們需要繼續做的事情。這就是為什麼我們談論最好的前進道路是在這些事情上加倍努力。他們確實推動了市場——他們確實推動了銷售。他們確實推動了銷售，並且獲利了。

The next question comes from Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德里亞·特謝拉。

So I wanted to go back to that 4% volume growth commentary in U.S. and representing the EU focus markets. And despite a tough comparison for the cold and flu season. It seems that you had market share gains in laundry and some other key categories. So can you comment on how you exit the quarter for the cold and flu season in the U.S. and in Europe?

因此，我想回到美國 4% 的銷售成長評論並代表歐盟重點市場。儘管與感冒和流感季節進行了艱難的比較。您似乎在洗衣和其他一些關鍵類別中獲得了市場份額。那麼，您能否評論一下美國和歐洲如何度過本季的感冒和流感季節？

And separately, have you -- it seems like you secured more distribution in the balance of this fiscal year. So any comment on that. And a clarification on China. You said that you're confident that the growth will resume to the mid-single-digit level. I'm assuming that's not a comment for this fiscal year. But as you commented out, Jon, in terms of like the Head & shoulder, and I know hair care is a big category there and your [company easy comps] in hair. So I was wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more than SK-II in particular.

另外，您似乎在本財年的餘額中獲得了更多的分配。所以對此有何評論。並對中國作出澄清。您說您有信心成長將恢復到中個位數水準。我假設這不是本財年的評論。但正如你所評論的，喬恩，就頭肩部而言，我知道頭髮護理是那裡的一個大類別，而且你的[公司簡單比較]在頭髮方面。所以我想知道你是否可以比 SK-II 詳細說明一下。

Let me just take China real quick and then turn it over to Andre the cough/cold trend, et cetera. The mid-single-digit number that we referred to is an expectation of longer-term market growth. You're correct. It is not an expectation of ours for either the market or our business in this current fiscal year. On the broader beauty question, when you take SK-II and the market impacts in China, out of the equation, you see a business that's performing extraordinarily well.

讓我快速介紹中國，然後將咳嗽/感冒趨勢等問題交給安德烈。我們提到的中個位數數字是對長期市場成長的預期。你是對的。這不是我們對本財年的市場或我們的業務的預期。在更廣泛的美容問題上，當你將 SK-II 和中國市場的影響排除在外時，你會看到一家業績非常出色的企業。

I mentioned Head & Shoulders, which is the largest shampoo brand in the world, up 8% fiscal year-to-date. If you look at North America Pantene fiscal year-to-date, up 15%, our Skin and Personal Care business up double digits. The same is true for the beauty business in an enterprise L.A. and then Europe.

我提到了海飛絲，它是世界上最大的洗髮精品牌，本財年迄今成長了 8%。如果你看看北美潘婷本財年迄今的成長 15%，我們的皮膚和個人護理業務就成長了兩位數。對於洛杉磯和歐洲企業的美容業務也是如此。

So it's a very strong business benefiting from the exact same strategies, obviously, applied differently that we're executing across the balance of the company. And that will, over time, as the market corrects itself, be demonstrated in China as well.

因此，這是一項非常強大的業務，受益於完全相同的策略，顯然，我們在公司其他部門執行的策略不同。隨著時間的推移，隨著市場的自我修正，這一點也將在中國得到證明。

So on the other two questions on PHC, Andrea, look, the business is obviously a very, very strong past for your average growth rate of 13%.

所以關於 PHC 的另外兩個問題，Andrea，你看，這項業務顯然是一個非常非常強勁的過去，平均成長率為 13%。

So the underlying strength of the business is very healthy. We see an impact of the cold/cough season. The season is still above average, but it's below a record season last year, and it's developing a little bit slower in the current profile, which means there could be some upside coming as we -- as time goes by. Last year, Vicks was 28% in the same quarter. So you can see the high base that we mentioned in the prepared remarks.

因此，該業務的潛在實力非常健康。我們看到了感冒/咳嗽季節的影響。本賽季仍然高於平均水平，但低於去年創紀錄的賽季，目前的發展速度有點慢，這意味著隨著時間的推移，我們可能會出現一些上行趨勢。去年同季度，維克斯為28%。所以你可以看到我們在準備好的評論中提到的高基數。

Just one thing on that, sorry to interrupt Andre, that I think is relatively straightforward, but it's worth mentioning. As we were all coming out of COVID, going through our first cough -- our first non-COVID or light COVID cough/cold season. It's not surprising that having but spent time in our homes for the last 2 to 3 years at the level of immunity was not high.

只是有一件事，抱歉打斷安德烈，我認為相對簡單，但值得一提。當我們都從新冠病毒中恢復過來時，正在經歷第一次咳嗽——我們的第一個非新冠病毒或輕度新冠病毒咳嗽/感冒季節。毫不奇怪，在過去的兩到三年裡，我們在家中度過的時間裡，免疫力水平不高。

And therefore, the level of incidence was very high. So that's what we're annualizing against combined with a slower start to the normal season. As Andre says, we'll wait to see how that all materializes. We have seen some increase in incidents. You can probably hear a little bit of a frog in my voice this morning. I heard one on Andre's.

因此，發病率非常高。因此，這是我們的年度預測，加上正常季節開局較慢的情況。正如安德烈所說，我們將拭​​目以待這一切如何實現。我們看到事件增加。今天早上你可能會從我的聲音中聽到一點青蛙的聲音。我在安德烈那裡聽過一首歌。

Right. We're contributing. Here we go.

正確的。我們正在做出貢獻。開始了。

Just last point on PHC. If you look at the share development in every treatment area that we cover in PHC, we're up in share, in every treatment area, we're up in organic sales across regions. So again, it's purely a seasonal element.

關於 PHC 的最後一點。如果你看看我們在初級保健領域涵蓋的每個治療領域的份額發展，你會發現我們在每個治療領域的份額都在上升，我們在各個地區的有機銷售額也在上升。再說一遍，這純粹是季節性因素。

On distribution, Andrea, I won't give you an answer rather than obviously driving innovation, driving incremental sales for our retail partners driving category growth helps with their desire to have our brands present on their shelf.

關於分銷，安德里亞，我不會給你一個答案，而是明顯地推動創新，推動我們的零售合作夥伴的增量銷售，推動品類增長，有助於他們渴望讓我們的品牌出現在他們的貨架上。

The next question comes from Peter Grom of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。

So I know you maintained your commodity outlook this morning, but just given the first half performance, the outlook does not bend as much of a tailwind from here, which you alluded to, Andre. But can you maybe just unpack what you're seeing across your key cost buckets, where are things getting better? Where are things getting worse?

所以我知道你今天早上維持了你的大宗商品前景，但考慮到上半年的表現，前景並沒有像你提到的那樣有那麼大的順風，安德烈。但是，您能否分析一下您在關鍵成本方面所看到的情況，哪些方面情況正在變得更好？哪些地方的情況變得更糟了？

And maybe just based on current spot rates, like how should we think about the phasing? Would you expect deflation in both 3Q and 4Q? Or is there any potential for costs to become a headwind as we exit the year?

也許只是基於當前的即期匯率，例如我們應該如何考慮分階段？您預計第三季和第四季都會出現通貨緊縮嗎？或者，當我們今年結束時，成本是否有可能成為不利因素？

Peter, the commodity basket is wide complex and changing very quickly. So the best guess we have is what we told you, 800 million of tailwind for the year, which the majority of which has been flown through the P&L in the front half. What I'll leave you with, I don't expect any headwind from commodity in the second half.

彼得，商品籃子非常複雜，而且變化非常快。因此，我們最好的猜測就是我們告訴你的，今年有 8 億順風車，其中大部分已經通過前半部分的損益表。我要告訴你的是，我預計下半年大宗商品不會有任何阻力。

It continues to be a tailwind. The second thought I'll leave you with is the impact on the P&L given the time it takes for commodity changes to flow through our contract structures and our own variance holding policy make the time lag significant. So even if we saw significant volatility on commodity spot prices, the impact on the fiscal will decrease over time simply because of those 2 dynamics, but continue to expect tailwinds just less than you saw in half one.

它仍然是順風。我要留給您的第二個想法是對損益表的影響，因為商品變化流經我們的合約結構需要時間，而我們自己的方差持有政策使時間滯後很大。因此，即使我們看到大宗商品現貨價格大幅波動，由於這兩種動態，對財政的影響也會隨著時間的推移而減少，但繼續預計順風因素將比你在一半中看到的要少。

The next question comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

And belated Happy New Year to you all. A couple of questions. We've talked a few times about the North America volume strength. I had in my notes that you're lapping some undershipment that should have been a couple point benefit to this quarter. I don't think you've mentioned it so far. So am I wrong?

祝大家遲來的新年快樂。有幾個問題。我們已經多次討論過北美的銷售優勢。我在筆記中提到，你們正在處理一些出貨不足的情況，這本應為本季帶來幾個百分點的好處。我認為到目前為止你還沒有提到它。那我錯了嗎？

Was there not an sizable transitory benefit this quarter? And then it's encouraging to hear the confidence that you're expressing around sort of it sounds like an imminent improvement in SK-II words like recovery and improvement throughout the back half. With the decline sort of half related to Japan boycotts and half related to market conditions, where are you seeing the improvement? Is that dissipating concerns around Japanese brands? Or are you actually seen improvement in market conditions?

這個季度不是有相當大的暫時效益嗎？然後，令人鼓舞的是，聽到你所表達的信心，聽起來像是 SK-II 中的“即將到來的進步”，例如整個後半場的恢復和進步。下降一半與日本抵制有關，一半與市場狀況有關，您在哪裡看到了改善？這是否會打消人們對日本品牌的擔憂？或者您確實看到市場狀況有所改善嗎？

So the volume, we don't see a transitory effect on the volume side, Jason. First of all, -- so the base -- there's always some base volatility, as you know, in terms of inventories, in terms of our ability to ship, but there is no material impact that I would call out that would have to be taken into account if you look at the U.S. volume results, so nothing there.

所以，我們沒有看到音量方面的短暫影響，​​傑森。首先，——所以基礎——正如你所知，就庫存而言，就我們的運輸能力而言，總是存在一些基礎波動，但我認為這不會產生實質性影響如果您查看美國的銷量結果，則將其考慮在內，因此什麼也沒有。

The SK-II improvement, again, I would -- I want to pace expectations, but the improvement is really in the consumer sentiment that we're seeing, where we had very high social media coverage in quarter 1 leading to negative sentiment and negative top-of-mind awareness of the brand. That is now dying down. And honestly, most consumers have gone back to a neutral position open to SK-II. And so what we're doing is really doubling down with innovation and doubling down with communication on the efficacy, the quality of the product, the quality of the brand and leveraging the most loyal and passionate consumer group to help us make the case for SK-II which we believe will help us improve run rates in the second half.

SK-II 的改善，我想——我想加快預期，但改善實際上是我們所看到的消費者情緒，我們在第一季度的社交媒體覆蓋率非常高，導致負面情緒和負面情緒品牌的首要意識。現在這種情況正在消亡。老實說，大多數消費者已經回到了對 SK-II 開放的中立立場。因此，我們所做的實際上是加倍努力創新，加倍努力就功效、產品品質、品牌品質進行溝通，並利用最忠誠和熱情的消費者群體來幫助我們為 SK 辯護。-II，我們相信這將幫助我們提高下半年的運行率。

The market dynamics, we continue to see bumpy even over the next quarters improving, but there will be volatility there.

市場動態，即使在接下來的幾季有所改善，我們仍然會看到坎坷，但那裡將會出現波動。

It's just an end of one, Jason. So it's kind of irrelevant. But I was in the home of a heavy SK-II user in Beijing. And I asked her about this dynamic and how it was affected in her purchasing. And she kind of laughed, and it wasn't the normal nervous laugh.

這只是一個結局，傑森。所以這有點無關緊要。但我在北京一位SK-II重度使用者的家。我向她詢問了這種動態以及它對她的購買有何影響。她笑了，這不是正常的緊張笑。

It was -- and she said she followed that up with, if Japanese consumers aren't afraid of this, why should I be. And she said, I'm much more afraid of the pimple that I will get if I don't use this than I am about.

是的──她說她接著說，如果日本消費者不害怕這個，我為什麼要害怕。她說，如果我不使用這個，我比現在更害怕會長痘痘。

So it's starting to normalize. Again, that's [end of one]. It was also interesting to me to see what was happening with her kind of personal inventory and just looking at the liquid fill levels in the bottles, which were low. So I think there's a dynamic as well where a number of consumers just kind of waited to see how this whole thing played out and reduce their personal stocks and the process. But again, that's probably need here there, but I thought it was worth sharing.

所以它開始正常化。再說一次，這就是[一個的結尾]。我也很有趣的是，看看她的個人庫存發生了什麼，只看瓶子裡的液體填充量，瓶子裡的液體填充量很低。因此，我認為還有一種動態，即許多消費者只是在等待整個事情如何發展，並減少他們的個人庫存和流程。但同樣，這可能是這裡需要的，但我認為值得分享。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的卡勒姆·艾利奧特。

My question guys is about your end price market restructuring, which I think in the release you described as substantial liquidation of the affected markets in places like Argentina and Nigeria. And I guess, look, recognizing that these are not huge markets for you today. From a profit perspective, this still feels like a fairly extreme decision and clearly, a challenging macro backdrop today in those markets. But in the case of Nigeria, probably one of the highest long-term potential economic market. So my question is Jon I know these enterprise markets for your baby, so to speak, for a number of years. Just hoping you can walk us through what I imagine must have been a difficult strategic decision.

我的問題是關於你們的最終價格市場重組，我認為你們在新聞稿中將其描述為對阿根廷和尼日利亞等地受影響市場的大幅清算。我想，看看，認識到這些對今天的你來說並不是巨大的市場。從利潤的角度來看，這仍然感覺是一個相當極端的決定，而且顯然，這些市場目前的宏觀背景充滿挑戰。但就尼日利亞而言，它可能是長期潛力最大的經濟市場之一。所以我的問題是，喬恩，可以說，我了解您的寶貝的這些企業市場很多年了。只是希望你能引導我們完成我認為一定是個艱難的戰略決策。

Yes, these decisions are not taken lightly. A couple of points. One is where we're moving to an import model which will be the case in Nigeria, we maintain an option on the future of those brands in those markets. We're just choosing to operate in a way that's that frankly is viable.

是的，這些決定並不是輕易做出的。有幾點。一是我們正在轉向進口模式，尼日利亞就是這種情況，我們對這些品牌在這些市場的未來保留選擇權。我們只是選擇以一種坦白說可行的方式運作。

You get into some tough situations in some of these markets with currency controls with pricing controls with the ability to dividend money out of these markets. And at some point, you run into a set of conditions that just make it impossible to operate. You can't get -- you can't source dollars as an example, in order to purchase the ingredients and raw materials, you need to manufacture your products.

在其中一些市場中，您會遇到一些困難的情況，這些市場具有貨幣控制和定價控制，並且能夠從這些市場中分紅。在某些時候，您會遇到一系列導致無法操作的情況。例如，你無法獲得美元，為了購買成分和原料，你需要製造你的產品。

And so we've come into a decision when those situations present themselves to be pragmatic to be value creative and to flow resources to bigger opportunities that present more near-term opportunity, while in some cases, maintaining our optionality on the long term. Andre, I don't know if you want to add anything to that.

因此，當這些情況出現時，我們就會做出決定，要務實地發揮價值創意，並將資源流向更大的機會，提供更多的短期機會，同時在某些情況下，從長遠來看，保持我們的選擇權。安德烈，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

Yes, I just want to clarify because the strategic intent really is what Jon described, right? We are moving in Nigeria to an import market, we will still be present, but it's a better way to serve the consumer and a better way for us to create value. In Argentina, we are divesting our Fabric and Home Care business, and again, are looking to find a better go-to-market model. The language you're quoting Callum is substantial liquidation, that's an accounting term.

是的，我只是想澄清一下，因為戰略意圖確實如喬恩所描述的那樣，對嗎？我們正在尼日利亞轉向進口市場，我們仍然會存在，但這是服務消費者的更好方式，也是我們創造價值的更好方式。在阿根廷，我們正在剝離我們的布料和家庭護理業務，並再次尋求更好的進入市場模式。你引用卡勒姆的話是“實質清算”，這是一個會計術語。

And that accounting term is really defining the point at which we recognize the accumulated foreign exchange translation loss in those markets, which is part of that noncash restructuring that we talked about. So the accounting term doesn't represent the business execution. It is a technical term that once we get to that point of substantial liquidation, we will recognize the accumulated foreign exchange translation loss.

這個會計術語實際上定義了我們確認這些市場中累積外匯折算損失的點，這是我們談到的非現金重組的一部分。所以會計術語並不代表業務執行。這是一個技術術語，一旦我們達到大幅清算的程度，我們將確認累積的外匯折算損失。

By the way, as a prior CFO would have had no hope of explaining that to you as eloquently as the current CFO just did.

順便說一句，作為前任首席財務官，不可能像現任財務長那樣雄辯地向您解釋這一點。

I won't comment.

我不會發表評論。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

Great. Clearly, you've generated some impressive growth in the U.S. and Europe, so I want to bring it back to the developed markets, and you've held on very nicely the price. So I wanted to ask you about competitive response and any pushback from retailers or increase in promotion from competition, given the share gains you've made and whether you're seeing any response there?

偉大的。顯然，你們在美國和歐洲取得了令人印象深刻的成長，所以我想把它帶回已開發市場，而且你們很好地保持了價格。因此，考慮到您所取得的份額成長，我想問您有關競爭反應以及零售商的任何阻力或競爭促銷增加的情況，以及您是否看到了任何反應？

You want to talk competitive promotion, Andre, and then I'll talk to customers.

安德烈，你想談談競賽促銷，然後我會和​​客戶談談。

Happy to. Olivia, so I started to mention this in the U.S. Our promotion level is still below pre-COVID about an 85 index competitive promotion level around 90 index. So very similar. We don't see a substantial increase in either depth or frequency in U.S.

高興。奧利維亞，所以我開始在美國提到這一點。我們的促銷水平仍然低於新冠疫情之前的 85 指數競爭促銷水平，大約 90 指數。非常相似。我們沒有看到美國的深度或頻率有大幅增加。

In Europe, we do see an increase in frequency, we do not see any increase in depths. Actually, both frequency and depth are still below pre-COVID levels, but frequency is increasing. So competitive environment still stable. And I think it's also driven by the fact that we are driving growth. We are driving market growth, and that contributes to the share growth, which means we can grow, but also it doesn't drive necessarily negative cycles in terms of pricing in the market.

在歐洲，我們確實看到了頻率的增加，但我們沒有看到深度的任何增加。實際上，頻率和深度仍低於新冠疫情前的水平，但頻率正在增加。所以競爭環境依然穩定。我認為這也是由我們正在推動成長這一事實所推動的。我們正在推動市場成長，這有助於份額成長，這意味著我們可以成長，但也不一定會導致市場定價方面的負週期。

The whole idea, just building on Andre's last point there is to create business, not take business. And that works out well for us. It works out well for the categories that we compete in, and it works out well for our retail partners. And that is really the focus of the existing interchange with our retail partners. It was #1, 2 and 3 supply as we've solidified our supply chains, the conversation moves very quickly to how do we work together to grow markets.

整個想法只是建立在安德烈的最後一點之上，那就是創造業務，而不是搶奪業務。這對我們來說效果很好。它對於我們競爭的類別以及我們的零售合作夥伴都非常有效。這確實是我們與零售合作夥伴現有交流的重點。隨著我們鞏固了我們的供應鏈，這是第一、第二和第三個供應，談話很快就轉向我們如何共同努力發展市場。

That's a win-win-win proposition, a win for them, a win for us, a win for consumers and, of course, adding a fourth win for shareowners. So that's the state of play. And I experienced that in Europe, I experienced -- I was in Europe just before Christmas. As you know, I was just in China, that was the nature of the conversation there, and it's clearly the nature of the conversation here in the U.S.

這是一個三贏的主張，對他們來說是雙贏，對我們來說是雙贏，對消費者來說是雙贏，當然，也為股東帶來了第四次勝利。這就是比賽的狀態。我在歐洲經歷過這一點，我經歷過——聖誕節前我在歐洲。如你所知，我剛剛在中國，這就是那裡談話的本質，顯然這也是美國這裡談話的本質。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

I wanted to go back to China for, you have a great time, I guess, on this call. The last quarter, you guys had talked about a portfolio structure examination. I guess I'm curious whether there's -- any update on that or what even does that mean? And maybe specifically, any underlying changes in consumer attitude towards beauty is a category including what is perceived to be relevant by brand or efficacy -- and also sort of related to that, it just seems a bit more of a sickle category, more trendy category than some of the others that you were in?

我想回中國，我想你在這通電話中玩得很開心。上個季度，你們談到了投資組合結構檢查。我想我很好奇是否有任何更新，或者這意味著什麼？也許具體來說，消費者對美容的態度的任何潛在變化都是一個類別，包括被認為與品牌或功效相關的內容——而且也與此相關，它似乎更像是一個鐮刀類別，更時尚的類別比你所在的其他一些人？

And I guess I'm specifically talking in China as opposed to globally, so you can sort of parse out that, I guess, if you want. But any thoughts on maintaining a presence in a category that has more subjective sort of usage than some of your other categories on everyday usage?

我想我是專門在中國而不是全球範圍內談論的，所以如果你願意的話，我想你可以對此進行解析。但是，對於在日常使用中保持比其他一些類別更主觀的類別中的存在有什麼想法嗎？

I'd offer a couple of thoughts there. One, China is our second largest market, sales and profits. Beauty represents a significantly disproportionate amount of the business. So if we weren't committed to the Beauty business in China, you'd have to ask yourself a different question.

我想在那裡提供一些想法。一、中國是我們第二大市場，銷售額和利潤。美容在業務中所佔的比例明顯不成比例。因此，如果我們不致力於中國的美容業務，您就必須問自己一個不同的問題。

Second, when we did our significant portfolio restructuring, however many years ago, that was now into daily use categories where performance drives brand choice, we did the same with beauty. Exiting the most fickle to use your Symantecs portions of the business. We exited what I call fashion fragrances and flavors.

其次，當我們進行重大的產品組合重組時，無論多年前，現在都進入了性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別，我們對美容也做了同樣的事情。退出最變化無常的部分，轉而使用您的賽門鐵克業務部分。我們退出了我所說的時尚香水和香料。

The brands that we have remaining in the categories that we play in, there's real opportunity to drive long-term loyalty with superior performance. That's true in China, that's true outside of China. And there will always be a higher trial rate in that category than in many other categories. That's not a bad thing. It helps demonstrate the superiority of what we do offer and people come back to our brands. So if the question is commitment to beauty in China, the answer is yes.

我們所從事的類別中保留的品牌確實有機會透過卓越的表現來提高長期忠誠度。在中國如此，在中國之外也是如此。而且該類別的試用率總是高於許多其他類別。這並不是一件壞事。它有助於展示我們所提供產品的優越性，讓人們回歸我們的品牌。因此，如果問題是關於中國對美麗的承諾，那麼答案是肯定的。

Our final question will come from Edward Lewis of Redburn Atlantic.

我們的最後一個問題將來自雷德伯恩大西洋公司的愛德華·劉易斯。

We've been accustomed to strong performance in the U.S. for a number of years, but some notable to see the stronger performance in Europe, again, with volume and price. I guess that comes at a time when the spent of scrutiny over here on pricing levels. So can you talk more about what's behind the strong results for Europe at present?

多年來，我們已經習慣了美國的強勁表現，但值得注意的是，歐洲的銷售和價格表現再次強勁。我想這是在對定價水準進行審查的時候發生的。那麼您能否多談談歐洲目前強勁業績背後的原因是什麼？

Look, I think the execution of the strategy in Europe is really behind the strength of the results. The team has done a fantastic job in combining the price increases that needed to be taken to recover the commodity cost increases with very strong innovation that delights the consumer at the time when they see higher pricing materialize on the shelf. And that's really behind the benign volume impact as we took the pricing and behind the acceleration of volume growth now that pricing is established in the market.

看，我認為歐洲戰略的執行確實是結果實力的背後。團隊做得非常出色，將恢復商品成本增加所需的價格上漲與非常強大的創新相結合，當消費者看到貨架上出現更高的價格時，他們會感到高興。這確實是我們定價時對銷售有良性影響的原因，也是市場定價後銷售加速成長的原因。

We've done that. A few examples. Jon mentioned aerial I'll mention aerial as well, but aerial parts in a more sustainable packaging launched with the price increase that we needed to take has been building organic sales by up to 20% or higher. So the results are really a combination of strong innovation, pricing and therefore, maintaining consumers coming into the franchise and trading up not different from the U.S. We convinced ourselves for years that what mattered most in Europe was price, specifically the lower the better.

我們已經做到了。舉幾個例子。喬恩提到了天線，我也會提到天線，但是採用更永續包裝的天線零件隨著我們需要採取的價格上漲而推出，已經使有機銷售額提高了 20% 或更高。因此，結果實際上是強大的創新、定價的結合，因此，維持消費者進入特許經營權並進行升級交易與美國沒有什麼不同。多年來，我們說服自己，在歐洲最重要的是價格，特別是價格越低越好。

And that wasn't an uninformed decision. You had the highest development of heavy discounters, for example, in Europe, which would then indicate that price is an important part of the consumer value proposition. But as Andre said, in the last number of years, we've really pushed innovation as a driver of value, not forgetting about value but delivering it through performance. And that, combined with the executional capability of that market, which has just been phenomenal. And I want to thank them all as long as you've given me the opportunity to do that has led to just really terrific results and I believe sustainable results.

這並不是一個不知情的決定。例如，在歐洲，大型折扣店發展最快，這表明價格是消費者價值主張的重要組成部分。但正如安德烈所說，在過去的幾年裡，我們確實將創新視為價值的驅動力，沒有忘記價值，而是透過績效來實現價值。再加上該市場的執行能力，這是驚人的。我要感謝他們所有人，只要你們給了我這樣做的機會，這就會帶來非常了不起的結果，而且我相信這是可持續的結果。

Great. Thank you for your time this morning. I know it's a little bit of a difficult quarter to unpack. There's a lot going on. The net of that, although is very positive, strong, really strong earnings per share growth while increasing investments in the business, both present and future, maintaining topline momentum, building volume momentum and building share.

偉大的。感謝您今天早上抽出時間。我知道這個季度有點難以整理。有很多事情發生。其淨值雖然非常積極、強勁，但每股收益成長非常強勁，同時增加了對當前和未來業務的投資，保持了營收勢頭，增加了銷售動力和份額。

As I expressed before, I have a higher degree of confidence in our ability to achieve a level of success going forward, and that's based entirely on both the strategy and the ability of our organization to deliver against that. Look forward to seeing many of you at CAGNY in a month or so, and we'll advance the conversation at that point. We're around Jon Chevalier sitting across the table from me right now. He's around all day. Andre is around. They'll get angry if you call me, so call them, but have a great day. Thanks.

正如我之前所說，我對我們未來取得一定成功的能力充滿信心，這完全取決於我們組織的策略和能力。期待在一個月左右的時間內在 CAGNY 見到你們中的許多人，屆時我們將推進對話。我們現在就坐在我對面的 Jon Chevalier 周圍。他整天都在身邊。安德烈就在附近。如果你打電話給我，他們會生氣，所以打電話給他們，但祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。