寶潔 (PG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早上好，歡迎參加寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。今天的事件正在錄製以供重播。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results for materially from these projections.

這次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔公司最新的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您將看到對可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測產生重大影響的因素的討論。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔公司需要讓您意識到，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標為投資者提供了有關基本業務趨勢的有用視角，並在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務指標的全面對賬。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話轉給寶潔公司首席財務官安德烈·舒爾滕 (Andre Schulten)。

(technical difficulty) today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. I'll start with an overview of results for fiscal year '23 and the fourth quarter. John will add perspective on our strategic focus areas and capabilities, and we'll close with guidance for fiscal '24 and then take your questions.

（技術難度）今天是喬恩·莫勒（Jon Moeller），董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官；約翰·舍瓦利埃 (John Chevalier)，投資者關係高級副總裁。我將首先概述 23 財年和第四季度的業績。約翰將補充我們對戰略重點領域和能力的看法，我們將以 24 財年的指導作為結束語，然後回答您的問題。

Fiscal '23 was another very strong year. Execution of our integrated strategy continues to yield broad-based strong sales growth across categories and regions. Strong earnings in the face of significant cost headwinds and continued strong return of cash to P&G shareowners. Organic sales for the fiscal year grew 7%, our second consecutive year of 7% organic sales growth and fifth consecutive year of 5% or better organic growth.

23 財年又是非常強勁的一年。我們綜合戰略的執行繼續帶來跨品類和地區的廣泛強勁銷售增長。面對巨大的成本阻力，盈利強勁，寶潔股東的現金回報持續強勁。本財年的有機銷售額增長了 7%，這是我們連續第二年實現 7% 的有機銷售額增長，也是連續第五年實現 5% 或更好的有機增長。

Starting fiscal 2019, 5%, 6%, 6%, 7% and 7%. Growth was broad-based across business units with all 10 of our product categories growing organic sales. Personal Health Care grew mid-teens, Feminine Care grew double digits. Fabric Care, Home Care and Hair Care, up high single digits, Skin and Personal Care, Baby Care, Family Care and Grooming, each grew mid-singles.

從 2019 財年開始，分別為 5%、6%、6%、7% 和 7%。各業務部門均實現廣泛增長，我們所有 10 個產品類別的有機銷售額均實現增長。個人醫療保健增長了十幾歲，女性護理增長了兩位數。織物護理、家庭護理和頭髮護理均實現高個位數增長，皮膚和個人護理、嬰兒護理、家庭護理和美容均實現中等單位數增長。

Oral Care grew low single digits. Focus markets were up 5% for the year, and we delivered strong results in our largest and most profitable market, the United States, with organic sales growing 6% on top of a strong 8% growth comp in the base period. Greater China organic sales were down low single digits versus the prior year, with trends improving in the back half as the market continues to slowly recover.

口腔護理產品實現低個位數增長。今年重點市場增長了 5%，我們在最大、利潤最高的市場美國取得了強勁業績，有機銷售額在基期 8% 的強勁增長基礎上增長了 6%。大中華區的有機銷售額與上年相比下降了低個位數，但隨著市場繼續緩慢復甦，下半年趨勢有所改善。

Enterprise markets were up 15%, led by Latin America with 24% organic sales growth. E-commerce sales increased 7%, now representing 17% of total company. Our strategy focused on driving market growth is, in turn, driving share growth for P&G. All channel market value sales in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew approximately 7% in fiscal '23.

企業市場增長了 15%，其中拉丁美洲的有機銷售額增長了 24%。電子商務銷售額增長 7%，目前占公司總銷售額的 17%。我們專注於推動市場增長的戰略反過來又推動了寶潔公司的份額增長。 2023 財年，我們參與競爭的美國類別的所有渠道市場銷售額增長了約 7%。

P&G consumption grew ahead of fair share of category growth driving modest value share growth and volume share up 50 basis points for the year. We held global aggregate market share, 29 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the year. Importantly, the share growth is broad-based. 7 of 10 product categories grew share globally over the past year.

寶潔消費增長領先於品類增長的合理份額，推動全年價值份額和銷量份額小幅增長 50 個基點。我們佔據了全球總市場份額，今年排名前 50 的類別國家/地區組合中有 29 個保持或增長了份額。重要的是，份額增長是廣泛的。過去一年，10 個產品類別中有 7 個類別的全球份額有所增長。

Core earnings per share were $5.90, up 2% for the year despite a 24 percentage point earnings growth headwind or $1.38 per share from higher material costs and foreign exchange. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS were up 11%. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 95%. We increased our dividend by 3% and returned over $16 billion of value to shareowners, $9 billion in dividends and $7.4 billion in share repurchase.

每股核心盈利為 5.90 美元，儘管由於材料成本和外匯上漲導致盈利增長出現 24 個百分點的阻力（即每股 1.38 美元），但全年仍增長 2%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股收益增長了 11%。調整後的自由現金流生產率為 95%。我們將股息提高了 3%，並向股東返還了超過 160 億美元的價值，其中包括 90 億美元的股息和 74 億美元的股票回購。

Moving to the April to June quarter. Organic sales grew 8%. We've now delivered 7 consecutive quarters with 5% or better organic sales growth. Pricing contributed 7 points to organic sales growth, mix was up 2 points, volume declined 1 point, improving sequentially versus the March quarter as expected. The strong company results are grounded in broad-based category and geographic strength.

轉到四月至六月季度。有機銷售額增長 8%。目前，我們已連續 7 個季度實現 5% 或更高的有機銷售額增長。定價對有機銷售增長貢獻了 7 個百分點，產品組合增長了 2 個百分點，銷量下降了 1 個百分點，與 3 月份季度相比，如預期的那樣有所改善。公司強勁的業績源於廣泛的品類和地域優勢。

Each of our 10 product categories grew organic sales in the quarter. Skin and Personal Care, Personal Health Care, Home Care, Feminine Care and Family Care, 5 of our 10 categories each grew double digits. Baby Care, Hair Care and Grooming grew high singles. Fabric Care grew mid-singles and Oral Care was up low single digits. Each of our 7 regions grew organic sales with focused markets up 7% and enterprise market up 13% for the quarter.

本季度我們 10 個產品類別的有機銷售額均有所增長。皮膚及個人護理、個人保健、家庭護理、女性護理和家庭護理，10 個類別中有 5 個類別均實現兩位數增長。嬰兒護理、頭髮護理和美容單品銷量增長強勁。織物護理產品實現中個位數增長，口腔護理產品實現低個位數增長。本季度，我們 7 個地區的有機銷售額均實現增長，其中重點市場增長了 7%，企業市場增長了 13%。

Organic sales in the U.S. grew 6%. Importantly, this includes 3 points of volume growth a return to positive volume in our largest market for the first time in 5 quarters. Greater China organic sales grew 4%. We continue to see sequential market recovery, but as expected, at a slow pace. European focus market organic sales were up 12% and despite volume pressure from wider pricing gaps. In enterprise markets, Latin America led the growth with organic sales up 22%.

美國的有機銷售額增長了 6%。重要的是，這包括 3 個百分點的銷量增長，以及我們最大市場 5 個季度以來首次恢復正銷量。大中華區有機銷售額增長 4%。我們繼續看到市場連續復甦，但正如預期的那樣，復甦速度緩慢。儘管價格差距擴大帶來銷量壓力，歐洲重點市場的有機銷售額仍增長了 12%。在企業市場中，拉丁美洲引領增長，有機銷售額增長 22%。

Global aggregate market share increased 10 basis points, 29 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.37, up 13% versus the prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 22%. Core operating margin increased 190 basis points as benefits from strong sales growth and productivity improvements more than offset higher material costs, foreign exchange headwinds, wage and benefits inflation and reinvestment in higher media reach and frequency.

全球總市場份額增加了 10 個基點，本季度排名前 50 的國家/地區組合中有 29 個保持或增加了份額。每股核心盈利為 1.37 美元，比上年增長 13%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股收益增長了 22%。核心營業利潤率增長了 190 個基點，因為強勁的銷售增長和生產率提高所帶來的好處足以抵消材料成本上漲、外匯不利因素、工資和福利通脹以及對更高媒體覆蓋範圍和頻率的再投資。

Currency neutral operating margin increased 310 basis points. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 136%. We returned approximately $2.3 billion of cash to shareowners in the quarter.

貨幣中性營業利潤率增加 310 個基點。調整後自由現金流生產率為 136%。本季度我們向股東返還了約 23 億美元現金。

In summary, we met or exceeded each of our going-in target ranges for the year organic sales growth, core EPS growth, free cash flow productivity and cash return to shareowners. Strong performance again this year in a very difficult operating environment.

總之，我們達到或超過了今年有機銷售增長、核心每股收益增長、自由現金流生產率和股東現金回報的每個初始目標範圍。今年在非常困難的經營環境中再次表現強勁。

Now I'll pass it over to John.

現在我將把它交給約翰。

Thanks, Andre. I want to talk briefly about this company, its strategy and our organization, both as a step-back reflection of what's been accomplished and as a glimpse forward into what's possible. Three quick reflections looking back. First, pre-COVID, during COVID and since COVID, pre-inflation and since inflation, consistent strong top line growth across categories and geographies. Core earnings per share growth each of the last 5 fiscal years, a consistent cash return to shareowners.

謝謝，安德烈。我想簡單地談談這家公司、它的戰略和我們的組織，既是對已經取得的成就的回顧，也是對未來可能性的一瞥。回顧過去的三個快速反思。首先，在新冠疫情之前、新冠疫情期間和新冠疫情之後、通貨膨脹前和通貨膨脹後，各個類別和地區的收入持續強勁增長。過去 5 個財年每年核心每股收益均增長，股東現金回報穩定。

Our strategy has sustained us through all of this. Second, look back in the past 2 years, nearly half of our earnings wiped out by commodities, transportation and foreign exchange headwinds. Yes, we still grew earnings per share in each of those years. while delivering 7% organic sales growth each year, increasing investment in innovation, brand building and growing markets and growing market share in aggregate in the process.

我們的戰略支撐我們度過了這一切。其次，回顧過去兩年，我們近一半的收入被大宗商品、運輸和外匯逆風所抵消。是的，我們每年的每股收益仍然在增長。同時每年實現 7% 的有機銷售增長，增加對創新、品牌建設和不斷增長的市場的投資，並在此過程中總體提高市場份額。

As I said last quarter, if you told me 4 years ago, that we would grow top line, bottom line and deliver strong cash return to shareowners through a global pandemic with employees challenged to get to the workplace in the context of a war in Europe, major disruption in global supply chains, rapidly escalating costs, the highest consumer inflation in 40 years and fundamental shifts in consumer behavior and channel relevance, it would have been hard to agree.

正如我上個季度所說，如果你在 4 年前告訴我，我們將在全球大流行期間實現收入和利潤的增長，並為股東帶來強勁的現金回報，而員工在歐洲戰爭的背景下仍面臨著重返工作場所的挑戰、全球供應鏈的重大中斷、成本迅速上升、40年來最高的消費者通脹以及消費者行為和渠道相關性的根本性轉變，這些都很難達成一致。

But that's exactly what this team has done. Over the last 5 years, they've added over $15 billion in incremental sales, growing our share of the global market, growing core earnings per share by 40%, and returned over $80 billion of cash to shareowners.

但這正是這個團隊所做的。在過去 5 年裡，他們的銷售額增加了超過 150 億美元，全球市場份額不斷增加，每股核心收益增長了 40%，並向股東返還了超過 800 億美元的現金。

Two more granular examples testing both strategy and execution in some of the harshest conditions. Latin America, significant devaluation across all major currencies. Inflation in Brazil peaking above 12%, 9% in Mexico, over 70% in Argentina. Despite this, our team has delivered 3 consecutive years of U.S. dollar sales growth, mid-teens in fiscal '22 mid-20s this year. Market share growth on both of value -- volume and value basis, nearly 30% profit growth this year in dollars, over 50% on a local currency basis.

兩個更精細的示例在一些最惡劣的條件下測試策略和執行。拉丁美洲，所有主要貨幣大幅貶值。巴西的通貨膨脹率高達 12% 以上，墨西哥為 9%，阿根廷超過 70%。儘管如此，我們的團隊已連續 3 年實現美元銷售額增長，今年 22 世紀 20 年代中期達到 10 位左右。市場份額在價值（數量和價值）上均有所增長，今年以美元計算的利潤增長近 30%，以當地貨幣計算超過 50%。

One more test, Turkey. Over the past 2 years, lira has devalued more than 300%. We've had to take multiple ways of significant pricing. Still, the strength of our strategy and its execution by the organization has enabled us to grow dollar sales, grow volume, sequentially improve market share and maintain dollar profitability in the market. As you well know, past performance is no guarantee of future results and certainly no excuse to stand still quite the opposite.

土耳其，還有一場考驗。過去2年，里拉貶值超過300%。我們必須採取多種方式進行有效定價。儘管如此，我們戰略的優勢及其組織的執行使我們能夠增加銷售額、增加銷量，從而提高市場份額並保持市場的美元盈利能力。眾所周知，過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，當然也不能成為停滯不前的藉口。

There will be bumps in the road ahead. We're still navigating through plenty of challenges right now. Each of these look backs, though gives us confidence in the effectiveness of the strategy grounded in and focused on consumers.

前進的道路上將會有坎坷。我們目前仍在應對許多挑戰。不過，每一次回顧都讓我們對基於消費者並以消費者為中心的戰略的有效性充滿信心。

And an appreciation for the capability of our talented, creative, agile and committed organization. Our integrated strategy, a focused portfolio of products and daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. Superiority through innovation across the 5 vectors of product package, brand communication, retail execution and value holistically defined. Leveraging that superiority to grow markets and our share in them, to jointly create value with our retail partners. Productivity to offset cost challenges while funding investments in innovation and brand building and market growth.

並對我們才華橫溢、富有創造力、敏捷且忠誠的組織的能力表示讚賞。我們的綜合戰略、專注的產品組合和日常使用類別，以性能推動品牌選擇。通過產品包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和整體定義價值 5 個方面的創新實現優勢。利用這種優勢來發展市場和我們在其中的份額，與我們的零售合作夥伴共同創造價值。提高生產力以抵消成本挑戰，同時為創新、品牌建設和市場增長的投資提供資金。

We're reaccelerated productivity back to pre-COVID levels, with an objective for gross savings and cost of goods sold of up to $1.5 billion before tax. We have line of sight to savings from improved marketing productivity. More efficiency and greater effectiveness, avoiding excess frequency and reducing waste. Constructive disruption of ourselves, and our industry to adapt and create new trends, technologies and capabilities that often extend our competitive advantage. In an organizational structure that's increasingly more empowered, agile and accountable. An increasingly diverse organization, now with 50% female representation in manager roles across the world.

我們正在將生產力重新提升至新冠疫情爆發前的水平，目標是稅前總成本和銷售成本節省高達 15 億美元。我們著眼於通過提高營銷效率來節省成本。更高的效率和更大的效力，避免過度頻率並減少浪費。對我們自己和我們的行業進行建設性的顛覆，以適應和創造新的趨勢、技術和能力，從而常常擴展我們的競爭優勢。在一個越來越授權、敏捷和負責任的組織結構中。組織日益多元化，目前全球經理職位中女性比例達到 50%。

We're strengthening the execution of our strategy in 4 focus areas. First, with Supply Chain 3.0. We're driving improved capacity, greater agility, flexibility, scalability, transparency and resilience along with greater productivity. We recently launched a platform of supply chain services to enable best-in-class service and streamline the end-to-end supply chain. These initiatives have been very well received by retailers.

我們正在四個重點領域加強戰略的執行。首先是供應鏈3.0。我們正在推動能力的提高、敏捷性、靈活性、可擴展性、透明度和彈性以及生產力的提高。我們最近推出了供應鏈服務平台，以提供一流的服務並簡化端到端供應鏈。這些舉措受到零售商的熱烈歡迎。

Our next step to drive joint value creation with retailers is to simplify our SKU portfolio, to improve the shopping experience, increase on-shelf availability and further streamline supply for the entire ecosystem. Higher quality, more transparency, increased supply assurance and higher on-shelf availability of our product, each improved superiority with consumers, and improves what is already the top-ranked supply chain by our retail partners and third-party industry surveys.

我們推動與零售商共同創造價值的下一步是簡化我們的 SKU 產品組合、改善購物體驗、增加貨架可用性並進一步簡化整個生態系統的供應。更高的質量、更高的透明度、更高的供應保證和更高的貨架可用性，每一項都提高了我們對消費者的優勢，並改善了我們的零售合作夥伴和第三方行業調查已經排名第一的供應鏈。

All of this is a huge value creation opportunity for P&G and our retail partners. Next, focus area, environmental sustainability to create superior propositions for consumers, customers and shareholders while improving our environmental impact, reducing the footprint of our operations, enabling consumers to reduce their footprint and innovating to deliver cross industry solutions for some of our most pressing challenges.

所有這一切對於寶潔和我們的零售合作夥伴來說都是一個巨大的價值創造機會。接下來，重點領域是環境可持續性，為消費者、客戶和股東創造卓越的主張，同時改善我們的環境影響，減少我們運營的足跡，使消費者能夠減少他們的足跡，並創新為我們的一些最緊迫的挑戰提供跨行業解決方案。

Our third digital acumen, leveraging data and digitization to delight consumers, streamline the supply chain, increase quality, drive productivity, all driving shareholder value, and fourth, a superior employee value equation for all genders identities, races, ethnicities, sexual orientations, ages and abilities for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and develop the best talent. At the end of the day, P&G serves people, with a strong desire to improve their lives and the lives of their families.

我們的第三個數字敏銳度，利用數據和數字化來取悅消費者，簡化供應鏈，提高質量，提高生產力，所有這些都推動股東價值，第四個，針對所有性別身份、種族、民族、性取向、年齡的卓越員工價值方程式以及適合所有職位的能力，以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才。歸根結底，寶潔為人們服務，強烈渴望改善他們及其家人的生活。

We stand by people and support them in small but meaningful ways every day with superior performing products at a superior value. We strive to do this in the most responsible way consistent with P&G's values and principles. This approach with consumers at the center and an organization built to serve them has served us and our many stakeholders well. It will guide our actions as we move forward.

我們每天都以微小但有意義的方式與人們站在一起，以卓越的性能和卓越的價值為他們提供支持。我們努力以符合寶潔價值觀和原則的最負責任的方式做到這一點。這種以消費者為中心以及為他們服務而建立的組織的方法為我們和我們的許多利益相關者提供了良好的服務。它將指導我們前進的行動。

If we do this effectively, consumers will benefit, customers will grow their businesses, employees will develop and thrive, society will benefit and shareholders will continue to be awarded for their investment, not measured by a quarter or even a year, but over time.

如果我們有效地做到這一點，消費者將受益，客戶將發展他們的業務，員工將發展和繁榮，社會將受益，股東將繼續因其投資而獲得回報，不是以季度甚至一年來衡量，而是隨著時間的推移。

I believe in this company, in our organization, its capabilities and in the commitment of P&G people to serve consumers. I'm excited about what lays ahead. Of course, I have my worries and concerns and we'll continue to face challenges and some dark days and nights, but the future in general holds great promise. We'll continue to be guided by our purpose, values and principles and relentless execution of our strategy to move forward to an ever-brighter dawn. P&G celebrates its 186th anniversary this year. I believe we have an even stronger hand to play today than we've had historically.

我相信這家公司、我們的組織、它的能力以及寶潔員工為消費者服務的承諾。我對即將發生的事情感到興奮。當然，我有我的擔憂和擔憂，我們將繼續面臨挑戰和一些黑暗的日日夜夜，但總體而言，未來充滿希望。我們將繼續以我們的宗旨、價值觀和原則為指導，不懈地執行我們的戰略，邁向更加光明的黎明。寶潔公司今年慶祝成立 186 週年。我相信我們今天的牌比歷史上的牌還要強。

With that, I'll hand it back to Andre to outline our guidance for the new year.

至此，我將把它交還給安德烈，概述我們對新一年的指導。

Thank you, Jon. As we've said in each guidance outlook for the past 3 years, and as Jon indicated, we will undoubtedly experience more volatility in the fiscal year ahead. And while supply chains and input costs have become more stable as we enter fiscal '24, the challenges we face are multifaceted, economic, geopolitical and societal putting pressure on consumer confidence and household budgets.

謝謝你，喬恩。正如我們在過去三年的每一份指導展望中所說的那樣，也正如喬恩所指出的那樣，我們無疑將在未來的財政年度經歷更多的波動。儘管隨著進入 24 財年，供應鍊和投入成本變得更加穩定，但我們面臨的挑戰是多方面的，經濟、地緣政治和社會挑戰，給消費者信心和家庭預算帶來壓力。

We'll navigate these challenges with our dynamic integrated strategy, guided by consumers with every step. Based on current spot prices, we estimate commodities will be a tailwind of around $800 million after tax in fiscal '24. Foreign exchange rates continued to be a headwind. And based on current rates, we now expect the $400 million after-tax impact.

我們將通過我們動態的綜合戰略來應對這些挑戰，每一步都以消費者為指導。根據當前現貨價格，我們估計大宗商品將在 24 財年稅後帶來約 8 億美元的推動力。外匯匯率仍然是一個阻力。根據目前的利率，我們現在預計稅後影響將達到 4 億美元。

We still face above normal levels of wage and benefit cost inflation in our cost structure and higher costs for third-party services. In addition, we expect the below-the-line impact from higher net interest expense to be roughly $200 million after-tax earnings headwind. With this context, I'll move to the key guidance metrics. We expect global market value growth in our categories to moderate back towards a range of around 4%, with the drivers of market growth normalizing as we move through the year, pricing becoming less of a driver and volume returning to modest growth.

我們的成本結構中仍然面臨著高於正常水平的工資和福利成本通脹以及第三方服務成本的上升。此外，我們預計較高的淨利息支出帶來的線下影響約為 2 億美元的稅後盈利逆風。在此背景下，我將轉向關鍵指導指標。我們預計我們類別的全球市場價值增長將放緩至 4% 左右，隨著今年市場增長的驅動因素逐漸正常化，價格的驅動力將減弱，銷量將恢復溫和增長。

With the strength of our brands and commitment to keep investing in the business, we continue to expect to grow above underlying market levels, building aggregate market share globally. This leads to guidance for organic sales growth in the range of 4% to 5% for fiscal '24. On the bottom line, we expect EPS growth in the range of 6% to 9% versus fiscal year '23 EPS of $5.90. This guidance equates to a range of $6.25 to $6.43 per share, $6.34 or up 7.5% at the center of the range.

憑藉我們品牌的實力和對業務持續投資的承諾，我們繼續期望增長高於基本市場水平，在全球建立總市場份額。這導致 24 財年的有機銷售增長指導範圍為 4% 至 5%。從底線來看，我們預計每股收益將增長 6% 至 9%，而 23 財年每股收益為 5.90 美元。該指引相當於每股 6.25 美元至 6.43 美元的範圍，該範圍的中間值為 6.34 美元或上漲 7.5%。

With a 3-point headwind from foreign exchange, this outlook translates to 9% to 12% EPS growth on a constant currency basis. We expect adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90% for the year. This includes an increase in capital spending as we add capacity in several categories. We expect to pay more than $9 billion in dividends and to repurchase $5 billion to $6 billion in common stock combined a plan to return $14 billion to $15 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year.

由於外匯匯率帶來 3 個百分點的阻力，這一前景意味著按固定匯率計算每股收益將增長 9% 至 12%。我們預計今年調整後的自由現金流生產率將為 90%。這包括隨著我們增加幾個類別的產能而增加資本支出。我們預計本財年將支付超過 90 億美元的股息，並回購 50 億至 60 億美元的普通股，併計劃向股東返還 140 億至 150 億美元的現金。

So top line, bottom line and cash guidance for fiscal '24, all consistent with our long-term algorithm. This outlook is based on current market growth estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

因此，24 財年的營收、利潤和現金指導均符合我們的長期算法。這一展望是基於當前的市場增長預測、大宗商品價格和外匯匯率。預計貨幣大幅疲軟、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治干擾、重大供應鏈中斷或商店關閉不會出現在指導範圍內。

These guidance ranges also do not assume a further reduction in commodity and material costs versus current levels. If this should occur, it would generate great flexibility to invest more in value accretive innovation and marketing opportunities.

這些指導範圍也不假設商品和材料成本與當前水平相比進一步降低。如果發生這種情況，將產生巨大的靈活性，可以更多地投資於增值創新和營銷機會。

With that, I'll hand it back to Jon for his closing thoughts.

至此，我將把它交還給喬恩，讓他總結一下自己的想法。

We're very pleased with the strong results P&G people have delivered in a very challenging operating cost and competitive environment over the last 5 years. Excellent execution of an integrated set of market constructive strategies delivered with a focus on balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable balance growth is to double down on the strategy starting with a commitment to deliver irresistibly superior propositions to consumers and retail partners. With that, Andre, and I will be happy to take your questions.

我們對寶潔員工過去 5 年在極具挑戰性的運營成本和競爭環境中取得的強勁成果感到非常滿意。出色地執行一套綜合的市場建設性戰略，重點關注平衡的頂線和底線增長以及價值創造。我們仍然相信，實現可持續平衡增長的最佳途徑是加倍實施戰略，首先致力於向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供令人難以抗拒的卓越主張。安德烈和我將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question will come from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

So my question is revenue rebalancing is a real focus for retailers and I guess, for you all as well as we kind of look into '24. So maybe can you provide some color on how Procter approached this in its '24 operating plan? Maybe comment on -- I know getting questions, comment maybe on level of investment up or down, the mix between spending at the top of the P&L versus the middle of the P&L? And maybe if there are any segments, geographies that require more intention than others. But again, this is -- it's a big issue and just kind of really want to get some color in terms of how you all approached it as you went into '24.

所以我的問題是，收入再平衡是零售商真正關注的焦點，我想，對於你們所有人以及我們來說，我們都在研究“24”。那麼，您能否提供一些關於寶潔公司在 24 世紀運營計劃中如何實現這一目標的信息？也許評論 - 我知道有人提出問題，評論可能是投資水平的上升或下降，損益表頂部支出與損益表中間支出之間的組合？也許是否有任何細分市場、地區比其他地區需要更多的意圖。但同樣，這是一個大問題，我真的想了解一下你們在進入 24 年後是如何處理這個問題的。

Yes. Bryan, I'll start. Look, our strategy is to grow categories. And that is the same strategy we'll execute in fiscal '24, and that means growing categories across volume and value. I think we take great comfort in the U.S. results where we already see volume growth in quarter 4 of 3%, which is half of the growth we saw in the quarter of 6% in terms of sales.

是的。布萊恩，我要開始了。看，我們的策略是擴大品類。這與我們將在 24 財年執行的戰略相同，這意味著在數量和價值上不斷增長類別。我認為我們對美國的業績感到非常欣慰，我們已經看到第四季度的銷量增長了 3%，這是我們在第四季度看到的 6% 銷售額增長的一半。

Driving volume and value category growth in our mind is best done via innovation and by driving superiority across the 5 vectors that we have defined, product, package, communication, go-to-market and value. And we see plenty of opportunity across our categories to drive household penetration, drive usage occasions, drive new jobs to be done, with all physical and mental levers that are available to us.

在我們看來，推動數量和價值類別的增長最好通過創新和推動我們定義的 5 個向量（產品、包裝、溝通、上市和價值）的優勢來實現。我們看到，我們的品類中有大量機會利用我們可以利用的所有身體和精神槓桿來推動家庭普及、推動使用場合、推動新工作的完成。

So we'll continue to invest in that direction. We have plenty of innovation that is doing just that. Just to give you a few examples. If you look at China, Safeguard China is the #1 PCC brand and Detox Body Wash, which is 2x the market average price has almost doubled in fiscal '23, and we'll continue to build on that strength by driving better awareness and even more awareness on that brand.

所以我們將繼續朝這個方向投資。我們有大量的創新正在做到這一點。只是給你舉幾個例子。如果你看看中國，Safeguard China 是排名第一的 PCC 品牌，排毒沐浴露的價格是市場平均價格的 2 倍，在 23 財年幾乎翻了一番，我們將繼續通過提高認知度甚至對該品牌有更多的認識。

In Europe, Ariel four-chamber unit dose and the ECOCLIC packaging, very strong results contributed to more than 20% sales growth in quarter 4. And again, we're just starting that provides plenty of opportunity to continue to drive market growth. We just launched Cascade Platinum Plus, no prewash, no rewash. And again, it's contributing to category growth and category share growth for us.

在歐洲，Ariel 四室單位劑量和 ECOCLIC 包裝非常強勁的業績促成了第四季度超過 20% 的銷售增長。再說一次，我們才剛剛開始，這為繼續推動市場增長提供了充足的機會。我們剛剛推出了 Cascade Platinum Plus，無需預洗，無需重新清洗。再次，它為我們的品類增長和品類份額增長做出了貢獻。

So plenty of opportunity to drive. As to the balance between above the line and below the line, it's hard to grow categories in volume and value with promotion. So we tend to focus on innovation, superiority and communication investments. When we promote we would like to do it in a strategic way. So that means driving regimen, for example, combining laundry detergent and fabric enhancers. So a high penetration, lower penetration category so that we overall build business for our retail partners and for ourselves. Generally, the promo environment continues to be relatively stable, and we have no interest in changing that current dynamic.

所以有很多開車的機會。至於線上和線下的平衡，品類的數量和價值很難通過促銷來增長。所以我們傾向於關注創新、優勢和傳播投資。當我們進行推廣時，我們希望以戰略性的方式進行。因此，這意味著駕駛方案，例如，結合洗衣劑和織物增強劑。因此，滲透率高、滲透率低的類別使我們能夠為我們的零售合作夥伴和我們自己建立整體業務。一般來說，促銷環境仍然相對穩定，我們沒有興趣改變當前的動態。

I would just offer a couple of thoughts, Bryan, in addition to what Andre said. Pricing isn't going away in the absolute. It is linked to innovation. And we have a very strong innovation pipeline, as Andre partially described. If you look back historically, pricing has been a positive contributor to our top line growth for something like 48 out of 51 in the last quarters.

布萊恩，除了安德烈所說的之外，我只想提供一些想法。定價並不會絕對消失。它與創新相關。正如安德烈部分描述的那樣，我們擁有非常強大的創新渠道。如果你回顧歷史，就會發現定價對我們的營收增長做出了積極貢獻，在過去幾個季度的 51 個季度中有 48 個季度。

And again, as we strengthen our innovation program even further, that will provide opportunities to continue to benefit from modest pricing. The second thing just to be aware of, and Andre mentioned it, when you have a strong innovation program, it compels consumers to try even better performing products, which typically involves a mix benefit. So you're going to have some amount of pricing going forward. You're going to have some amount of mix, which you saw, for instance, in the last quarter.

而且，隨著我們進一步加強我們的創新計劃，這將提供繼續從適度定價中受益的機會。安德烈提到的第二件事是，當你擁有強大的創新計劃時，它會迫使消費者嘗試性能更好的產品，這通常涉及混合效益。所以你未來將會有一定的定價。你將會有一定程度的混合，例如你在上個季度看到的。

Volume, the trend is very encouraging, as Andre said, both on a global aggregate basis, 2 quarters ago, volume was minus 6, last quarter, minus 3, this quarter minus 1. And as Andre said, we've fully turned the corner and are growing volume at very healthy levels in our largest market.

交易量，趨勢非常令人鼓舞，正如安德烈所說，無論是在全球總體基礎上，2個季度前，交易量為負6，上個季度為負3，本季度為負1。正如安德烈所說，我們已經完全扭轉了角落，並且在我們最大的市場中銷量以非常健康的水平增長。

We also have -- we will benefit from capacity investments that we're making currently. We have several categories in the U.S., for example, where we're currently on allocation on certain forms and freeing up that capacity to fully serve demand of both retailers and consumers will help as well. So those are just some additional to consider as you think about this question.

我們還將受益於我們目前正在進行的產能投資。例如，我們在美國有幾個類別，目前我們正在以某些形式進行分配，釋放能力以充分滿足零售商和消費者的需求也將有所幫助。因此，這些只是您在思考這個問題時需要考慮的一些額外因素。

The next question comes from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫·鮑爾斯。

I guess it seems to have resolved the debate as to when you think you can return to an algorithm growth. As you said, Andre, the '24 outlook implies that time is now, which is great. I guess the question I'm grappling with is, if you are fortunate to see upside as the year progresses, whether from further cost relief productivity benefits, top line strength, et cetera.

我想這似乎已經解決了關於何時可以回歸算法增長的爭論。正如你所說，安德烈，24 世紀的展望意味著現在就是時候，這很棒。我想我正在努力解決的問題是，隨著時間的推移，你是否有幸看到上行空間，無論是進一步的成本削減、生產力優勢、營收實力等等。

How do you think about using that additional flexibility? I'm sure, to some extent, the answer is you'll reinvest to stay within the algorithm range and preserve longer-term momentum. But I guess, is there a point or a framework you'd use to assess flowing through some of those benefits to upside versus the current guide.

您如何看待利用這種額外的靈活性？我確信，在某種程度上，答案是您將進行再投資，以保持在算法範圍內並保持長期勢頭。但我想，是否有一個點或一個框架可以用來評估其中一些好處相對於當前指南的上升趨勢。

Yes. We're very pleased that we were able to guide back to algorithm for fiscal '24. And as it comes to incremental investment, should we see more momentum or more help from a commodity perspective. The principle we will apply is return on investment. It's a very simple principle. We're not guided by money being available were guided by what is the best path forward to create sustainable value for our shareholders.

是的。我們很高興能夠指導回到 24 財年的算法。當談到增量投資時，我們是否應該從大宗商品的角度看到更多的動力或更多的幫助？我們應用的原則是投資回報。這是一個非常簡單的原則。我們不以可用資金為指導，而是以為股東創造可持續價值的最佳路徑為指導。

We have plenty of opportunity to invest partially in the direction that we mentioned before. You saw media spending, for example, picking up in quarter 4, partially because that's profiled with innovation and retail events. But as we further develop our ability to target more effectively and efficiently in the media space, we generally see a higher return on investment on every incremental dollar that we spend.

我們有很多機會向我們之前提到的方向進行部分投資。例如，您看到媒體支出在第四季度有所增加，部分原因是創新和零售活動。但隨著我們進一步發展在媒體領域更有效和高效地定位的能力，我們通常會看到我們每增加一美元的投資回報率都會更高。

So we will carefully push in that direction because we believe that more awareness on stronger innovation and superior products will drive the market and therefore, will drive our growth in a constructive way. We also have plenty of opportunity to improve our service levels. As Jon said, we're adding capacity and we'll invest and continue to invest in our ability to serve our retail partners even more effectively than we have done in the past.

因此，我們將小心翼翼地朝這個方向推進，因為我們相信，對更強大的創新和優質產品的更多認識將推動市場，從而以建設性的方式推動我們的增長。我們還有很多機會來提高我們的服務水平。正如喬恩所說，我們正在增加產能，我們將並繼續投資於我們為零售合作夥伴提供比過去更有效服務的能力。

And then we have plenty of opportunity to invest in future productivity, Supply Chain 3.0, our digital capabilities, all of those follow the same principles. Are they turning reasonable -- are they giving us a reasonable return on investment. If they do, we will try to invest. If they don't, we let the money flow through to earnings.

然後我們有很多機會投資未來的生產力、供應鏈 3.0、我們的數字能力，所有這些都遵循相同的原則。它們是否變得合理——它們是否給我們帶來了合理的投資回報。如果他們這樣做，我們將嘗試投資。如果他們不這樣做，我們就會讓資金流向收益。

Yes. Just emphasizing the point of ROI-based decision-making, I don't -- when we're discussing an opportunity in the market, whether that's an advertising product supply, building capability, I don't think I ever asked the question, where are we versus our guidance range in terms of the bottom line.

是的。只是強調基於投資回報率的決策的要點，當我們討論市場機會時，無論是廣告產品供應還是能力建設，我不認為我曾經問過這個問題，就底線而言，我們與指導範圍相比處於何處。

That's just not how we think about things. We've reflected a significant amount of investment that we're very excited about within the guidance range, and we'll continue looking for opportunities to build return. But that will be the focus.

這不是我們思考問題的方式。我們已經在指導範圍內反映出了我們非常興奮的大量投資，我們將繼續尋找創造回報的機會。但這將是焦點。

The next question comes from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的達拉·莫森尼安。

So just wanted to change a bit off Bryan's question more towards the payback from ad spend and P&G market share performance than the promotion and pricing side of things, which you covered, obviously, another quarter of strong organic sales growth. I know driving category growth is job one.

因此，我只是想稍微改變布萊恩的問題，更多地關注廣告支出和寶潔市場份額表現的回報，而不是促銷和定價方面，顯然，您提到了另一個季度強勁的有機銷售增長。我知道推動品類增長是首要任務。

But P&G share gains were a bit more modest in the quarter and the fiscal year. So I just wanted to get an update on your view of market share performance. How you're position going forward on that front, particularly given the recent reinvestment into marketing and the levels of payback you think you're getting from that?

但寶潔公司本季度和本財年的股價漲幅略為溫和。所以我只是想了解您對市場份額表現的最新看法。您在這方面的進展如何，特別是考慮到最近對營銷的再投資以及您認為從中獲得的回報水平？

Let me start. I'm sure Jon will add. I'll start by saying we're very pleased with our market share performance. We are holding global aggregate volume share and value share in the light of very strong pricing contribution to the P&L, which is a great outcome. As Jon mentioned, we see sequential progress in terms of volumes in the market and in our performance, which is the critical outcome as we enter fiscal '24.

讓我開始吧。我相信喬恩會補充。首先我要說的是，我們對我們的市場份額表現非常滿意。鑑於定價對損益表的貢獻非常大，我們持有全球總銷量份額和價值份額，這是一個很好的結果。正如 Jon 提到的，我們看到市場銷量和業績方面取得了連續進展，這是我們進入 24 財年的關鍵結果。

When you look at the U.S., we continue to drive value share growth of 20 basis points, and volume share growth of 50 basis points in the most recent reading. And when you look at our European shares, our focused market shares, they've turned positive in the past 1 and 2 months in European focus markets.

看看美國，根據最新的數據，我們繼續推動價值份額增長 20 個基點，銷量份額增長 50 個基點。當你看看我們的歐洲股票，我們的重點市場股票時，你會發現過去 1 個月和 2 個月，歐洲重點市場的股票已經轉為正值。

So all of those things give us great confidence that the strategy of driving superiority, and providing value to consumers via innovation at the time when we price is working. Our vertical portfolio across value tiers and across price points in the markets is working. So we'll continue to double down in that direction. From a U.S. share perspective, we see some trading into private label.

因此，所有這些都讓我們非常有信心，在定價時推動優勢並通過創新為消費者提供價值的策略正在發揮作用。我們跨價值層和市場價格點的垂直投資組合正在發揮作用。因此，我們將繼續朝這個方向加倍努力。從美國股票的角度來看，我們看到一些交易進入自有品牌。

Private label shares in aggregate are actually flat in the U.S. at about 16%, so not really growing sequentially. But if you compare versus previous quarter, as we had mentioned before, there is some volatility, especially in Family Care, some in Baby Care where we would expect as private label and smaller brands return to the shelf, some of those record shares will decrease, and that's partially what we're seeing. But structurally, the business is in a very good place, and we think we are well positioned to continue our journey on driving market growth and thereby expanding our share premium, which is, by the way, included in our guidance. where we said the market is going to grow 4%, and we're going to grow ahead of the market.

美國的自有品牌份額實際上持平，約為 16%，因此並沒有真正實現連續增長。但如果與上一季度進行比較，正如我們之前提到的，存在一些波動，特別是在家庭護理領域，在嬰兒護理領域，我們預計隨著自有品牌和小品牌重返貨架，其中一些創紀錄的份額將會下降，這就是我們所看到的部分情況。但從結構上看，該業務處於非常好的位置，我們認為我們處於有利位置，可以繼續推動市場增長，從而擴大我們的股票溢價，順便說一下，這已包含在我們的指導中。我們說市場將增長 4%，而我們的增長將領先於市場。

And only one point to add to that. I agree with everything Andre just said. As you're looking to see a correlation Steve (sic) [Dara], between increased marketing investment in Q4 and market share. As I know you know, it's not instantaneous. If you just think about purchase cycles as one of the dynamics, we have categories where the purchase cycle is once every 6 months or once every year. And so we look at it obviously over longer periods of time.

僅補充一點。我同意安德烈剛才所說的一切。正如您希望看到的史蒂夫（原文如此）[達拉]，第四季度營銷投資增加與市場份額之間的相關性。據我所知，你也知道，這不是瞬時的。如果您只將購買週期視為動態之一，我們有一些類別，其中購買週期為每 6 個月一次或每年一次。所以我們顯然會在更長的時間內審視它。

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

Great. I was hoping to hear a little bit more about the SKU simplification program because that was news I know you guys have spent a good amount of time talking about Supply Chain 3.0, but I was intrigued by this kind of new initiatives. So I was curious, I guess, first, geographically, are there particular markets where it's more pertinent.

偉大的。我希望聽到更多有關 SKU 簡化計劃的信息，因為這是新聞，我知道你們已經花了很多時間談論供應鏈 3.0，但我對這種新舉措很感興趣。所以我很好奇，我想，首先，從地理位置上看，是否有更相關的特定市場。

How far along are you in this process in terms of identifying where the opportunities are? And should we think about that as contributing to existing productivity programs? How does this interact with kind of discussion with retailers and bringing innovation in the market? Is it like a one in, one out. But just some more nuance around this program would be interesting.

在這個過程中，您在識別機會方面進展到什麼程度了？我們是否應該將其視為對現有生產力計劃的貢獻？這如何與零售商的討論互動並為市場帶來創新？是不是像一進一出。但圍繞這個計劃的一些細微差別將會很有趣。

Lauren. Look, SKU simplification is a category opportunity. If you look -- and it's a category opportunity globally across the categories that we operate in. It's the reality that a very small that the bottom 25% of SKUs in the categories we operate in, deliver a very small contribution to absolute retail sales. So as we think about even better serving our consumers and even better serving our retail partners, it is a logical part of an optimization program to find a better, more efficient shelf.

勞倫.看，SKU簡化是一個品類機會。如果你仔細觀察，就會發現這是我們經營的全球各個品類中的一個品類機會。事實上，我們經營的品類中排名靠後 25% 的 SKU 對絕對零售額的貢獻非常小。因此，當我們考慮更好地服務我們的消費者，甚至更好地服務我們的零售合作夥伴時，尋找更好、更高效的貨架是優化計劃的一個邏輯部分。

The appealing part for us is the data that we have based on images of our customers' shelves in terms of POS data and the algorithms we have developed to analyze the combination of those 2 give us great insight on what the right shelf set up should be and which SKUs we should really focus on with our retail partners to maximize overall sales throughput.

對我們來說，有吸引力的部分是我們根據 POS 數據的客戶貨架圖像獲得的數據，以及我們開發的用於分析這兩者組合的算法，使我們能夠深入了解正確的貨架設置應該是什麼以及我們應該與零售合作夥伴真正關注哪些 SKU，以最大限度地提高整體銷售量。

And that's the opportunity we're going after. It is a program that runs across all categories, and it's a program that runs across all regions. It will be ongoing as we reset shelves and discuss future innovation with our retail partners. And it is part of our program with our retail partners to drive efficiency, and part of our own productivity efforts because as you can imagine, reducing SKUs in a very complex manufacturing environment, frees up capacity and frees up cost.

這就是我們正在追求的機會。這是一個跨所有類別的計劃，這是一個跨所有地區的計劃。隨著我們重置貨架並與零售合作夥伴討論未來的創新，這一活動將持續進行。這是我們與零售合作夥伴提高效率計劃的一部分，也是我們自己生產力努力的一部分，因為正如您可以想像的那樣，在非常複雜的製造環境中減少 SKU，可以釋放產能並降低成本。

So it's a multi benefited space, but we'll take our time to ensure that we do it the right way. There's no standard, simple way to do this, so it requires a lot of analysis and a lot of planning with our retail partners to do it right.

所以這是一個多方受益的空間，但我們會花時間確保我們以正確的方式去做。沒有標準、簡單的方法可以做到這一點，因此需要與我們的零售合作夥伴進行大量分析和大量規劃才能正確實施。

They are very excited about this opportunity. As I meet with our retail partner CEOs and the key managers in those accounts. They're very anxious to work together on this. And a very important emphasis point is that, this is sometimes looked at primarily through a bottom line cost saving efficiency lens.

他們對這個機會感到非常興奮。當我與我們的零售合作夥伴首席執行官和這些客戶的關鍵經理會面時。他們非常渴望在這方面合作。一個非常重要的重點是，有時主要通過底線成本節約效率的角度來看待這一點。

That's not how we're approaching this, though that will be a benefit. We're really focusing on the opportunity, as Andre said, with a more powerful shelf to grow categories faster. And therefore, it's a top line opportunity for us and our retail partners. And we believe that if we do this well, what would normally be considered as some shelf distribution risk through a smaller lineup that we can actually convey that into a stronger overall shelf.

這不是我們處理這個問題的方式，儘管這將是一個好處。正如安德烈所說，我們真正關注的是機會，擁有更強大的貨架來更快地發展類別。因此，這對我們和我們的零售合作夥伴來說是一個重要的機會。我們相信，如果我們做得好，通常會被認為是通過較小的陣容進行一些貨架分配風險，但我們實際上可以將其傳遞到更強大的整體貨架中。

So it's multifaceted, as Andre said, it's early days working through this, and it will be a category by category, account by account effort, but I think they hold significant opportunity. This is -- you asked a question, Lauren, whether this was kind of incremental to the previously communicated productivity numbers. This is part of that and part of how we deliver that, and again, has top line benefit as well.

所以它是多方面的，正如安德烈所說，現在還處於早期階段，這將是一個類別一個類別、一個帳戶一個帳戶的努力，但我認為他們擁有重要的機會。這是——勞倫，你問了一個問題，這是否比之前傳達的生產力數字有所增加。這是其中的一部分，也是我們實現這一目標的方式的一部分，並且同樣也具有頂線效益。

The next question comes from Nik Modi of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的尼克·莫迪。

So actually, I had just 2 quick ones, Jon. On China, can you just provide any kind of on-the-ground color on what's going on with the consumer? I mean, is this still about them feeling comfortable getting out and about a more normalized routine? Or is there something more economic going on? And then the bigger question is just obviously, supply chains have been disrupted for the past few years.

所以實際上，我只有兩個快速的，喬恩。關於中國，您能否提供一些關於消費者的實際情況？我的意思是，這仍然是關於他們在外出時感到舒適以及關於更正常化的日常生活嗎？或者有什麼更經濟的事情發生？顯然，更大的問題是，供應鏈在過去幾年中已經被中斷。

I'm suspecting innovation was disrupted as a result things are getting back to normal. I'm just curious, like how do you -- how would you frame P&G's innovation pipeline for fiscal '24 relative to a normal year? I mean, is this going to be kind of a bigger year than normal? And then how do you think about getting the space given that what I understand is most companies are going to have a pretty heavy innovation here over the next 12 months. I'm just curious how you think about spending needs, and the ability to get everything you want on to the shelves.

我懷疑創新被擾亂了，結果事情正在恢復正常。我只是很好奇，與正常年份相比，您將如何構建 24 財年寶潔公司的創新渠道？我的意思是，今年會比往年更重要嗎？鑑於我的理解是大多數公司將在未來 12 個月內在這裡進行相當大的創新，您如何考慮獲得這個空間。我只是好奇你如何看待消費需求，以及將你想要的一切商品上架的能力。

China, as Andre said in our prepared remarks, continues to recover, not at a significantly rapid pace, but steadily. So our business in that country was up 4% in the last quarter.

正如安德烈在我們準備好的講話中所說，中國正在繼續復甦，但復甦速度不是很快，而是穩定。所以上個季度我們在那個國家的業務增長了 4%。

And that's a big improvement from where it was in the first half of the year. There are -- there continue to be consumer confidence, challenges driven by many factors in China. But again, improving month-on-month. There are some fundamental underlying economic challenges.

與上半年相比，這是一個很大的進步。中國的消費者信心仍然受到多種因素的影響而面臨挑戰。但同樣，逐月改善。存在一些根本性的潛在經濟挑戰。

If you look, for example, at the employment rates of people in their 20s, it's very low. Right now, the unemployed -- sorry, the unemployment rate is high, the employment rate is low, unemployment of as much as 20%. So there's a combination of things. But as always, I hold out great hope for China and our business in it. As I said, we're beginning to recover nicely as we speak.

例如，如果你看看 20 多歲的人的就業率，就會發現它非常低。現在，失業者——對不起，失業率高，就業率低，失業率高達20%。所以這是多種因素的結合。但一如既往，我對中國和我們在中國的業務抱有很大的希望。正如我所說，就在我們說話的時候，我們已經開始恢復得很好。

On the supply chain, several things happen as we rebalance the supply and demand. One is, and we've talked about this before, we're able to focus more energy and effort, refocus more energy and effort on productivity. So that's a significant benefit, and that's included in our assumptions on the guidance. It also makes it easier to get line time to innovate. We have a very strong innovation program that we're executing currently and obviously expect it's part of our model, we expect to do that going forward.

在供應鏈上，當我們重新平衡供需時，會發生一些事情。一是，我們之前已經討論過這一點，我們能夠集中更多的精力和精力，重新將更多的精力和精力集中在生產力上。所以這是一個顯著的好處，並且包含在我們對指南的假設中。它還可以更輕鬆地獲得創新時間。我們目前正在執行一個非常強大的創新計劃，顯然希望它成為我們模式的一部分，我們希望繼續這樣做。

And our track record to the point of how do you get things on shelf. Our track record speaks for itself. So one of the innovations that Andre was talking about earlier, if you just look at hand dish washing in the United States and Europe. Dawn PowerWash and Dawn EZ-Squeeze bottle. Those 2 innovations together drove 17% growth in that business last year, up 1.5 share points in the U.S., up. I think the number is 1.1 share points in Europe.

以及我們在如何將商品上架方面的記錄。我們的業績記錄不言而喻。如果你只看一下美國和歐洲的手洗餐具，這是安德烈之前談到的創新之一。 Dawn PowerWash 和 Dawn EZ-Squeeze 瓶。去年，這兩項創新共同推動該業務增長 17%，在美國的份額上升了 1.5 個百分點。我認為歐洲的這個數字是 1.1 個份額點。

And we're just getting started with the potential there, but that kind of track record behind innovation makes us a very compelling partner to our retail partners. And that specific example, as you would expect with those kind of numbers, had a significant impact on market growth, which is also of primary importance to them.

我們剛剛開始挖掘那裡的潛力，但創新背後的這種記錄使我們成為零售合作夥伴非常有吸引力的合作夥伴。正如您對此類數字所期望的那樣，這個具體示例對市場增長產生了重大影響，這對他們來說也是最重要的。

They don't really, as you know, don't really care or aren't benefited by our share growth unless it is driven by market growth, which they benefit from. So I think we're in good shape when we have great ideas when we can increase consumer and shopper delight, we'll be fully present.

正如你所知，他們並不真正關心我們的股票增長，也不會從我們的股票增長中受益，除非它是由市場增長驅動的，而他們從中受益。因此，我認為，當我們有偉大的想法時，當我們能夠增加消費者和購物者的滿意度時，我們就會處於良好狀態，我們將全力以赴。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Jon, you mentioned, I think in your introductory remarks that your e-commerce business is now about 17% of total, which has probably doubled in 3 or 4 years. Can you maybe kind of stand back and reflect on what that means for your business overall? And I'm maybe concentrating on the U.S. How does that change your relationship with brick-and-mortar? Does it -- has it had an impact on your shelf space in brick-and-mortar? How has it changed your supply chains, what added complexity it's given to you? And how has it changed your overall discussion with retailers? I know there's a lot there, but what are the key things and takeaways that we should get about what's been a pretty big transformation in terms of channels over the last 3 or 4 years.

Jon，你提到，我認為在你的介紹性發言中，你的電子商務業務現在佔總量的17%左右，可能在三四年內翻了一番。您能否退一步思考一下這對您的整體業務意味著什麼？我可能會關注美國。這會如何改變您與實體店的關係？它對您的實體貨架空間有影響嗎？它如何改變了您的供應鏈？它給您帶來了哪些複雜性？它如何改變了您與零售商的整體討論？我知道其中有很多內容，但是對於過去三四年來渠道方面發生的相當大的轉變，我們應該了解哪些關鍵的事情和要點。

Thanks, Robert. It's getting harder and harder to distinguish between e-commerce and traditional commerce, if you will, even in our conversations with our retail partners. Most of the large brick-and-mortar retailers are emphasizing the development of e-commerce in different forms themselves and have had significant growth behind those efforts. So honestly, I have not been in a conversation that is zero sum in nature or that is, in any way, combative in nature, more of the conversation is how can we work together to fully satisfy our shoppers, many of whom prefer an e-commerce experience.

謝謝，羅伯特。如果你願意的話，即使在我們與零售合作夥伴的對話中，區分電子商務和傳統商務也變得越來越困難。大多數大型實體零售商都在強調不同形式的電子商務發展，並取得了顯著的增長。老實說，我沒有參與過本質上是零和的對話，或者本質上是好鬥的對話，更多的對話是我們如何共同努力，充分滿足我們的購物者，他們中的許多人更喜歡電子產品- 商業經驗。

From a Pure business standpoint, we aim to be indifferent between channels. We want to have an equally attractive margin, which we generally do at least in aggregate, and we want a share profile in the different channels that allows us to be in difference, and allows us to support consumers and shoppers and whatever their choice is, wherever they want to go. That's always work to do, but we stand today in a very good place.

從純粹的商業角度來看，我們的目標是在渠道之間保持中立。我們希望擁有同樣有吸引力的利潤，至少在總體上我們通常這樣做，並且我們希望在不同渠道中擁有份額概況，使我們能夠與眾不同，並允許我們支持消費者和購物者以及無論他們的選擇是什麼，他們想去哪裡就去哪裡。這始終是我們要做的工作，但我們今天處於一個非常好的位置。

And last comment I'd make is just when you think about the growth of e-commerce, in the year that we just completed, as Andre said, it was 7%. That's the same rate of growth for the total business. So there's not a tipping exercise that's going on here. It's really working to raise all boats.

我要說的最後一句話是當你想到電子商務的增長時，正如安德烈所說，在我們剛剛完成的那一年，電子商務的增長為 7%。這與總業務的增長率相同。所以這裡沒有進行小費練習。確實是在努力讓所有的船都揚起。

And the only thing I'd add is many of the initiatives we talked about are designed to benefit an omni environment. So both online as well as physical store. When you think about SKU productivity, absolutely critical when you try to fulfill an online business from shelf because you need the holding power. When you think about supply chain services, our ability to fulfill on behalf of our retail partners directly from our DCs, significant advantage if you're in an online environment, but also an opportunity for any brick-and-mortar retailers. So all of those programs are basically channel agnostic. They serve any format within our markets.

我唯一要補充的是，我們討論的許多舉措都是為了使全方位環境受益而設計的。所以無論是網上還是實體店。當您考慮 SKU 生產力時，當您嘗試從貨架上完成在線業務時，這絕對至關重要，因為您需要保持力。當您考慮供應鏈服務時，我們能夠直接從我們的配送中心代表我們的零售合作夥伴履行訂單，如果您處於在線環境中，這將是一個顯著的優勢，而且對於任何實體零售商來說也是一個機會。所以所有這些程序基本上都是與渠道無關的。他們為我們市場內的任何形式提供服務。

The next question comes from Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德里亞·特謝拉。

I have one for Jon and one for Andre. Jon, on the U.S. volume recovery, are you seeing more of a need to defend the entry-level pricing with promo? I know -- I don't want to sound as if I do appreciate all that you said about several initiatives on or not only initiatives, I mean real market share gains in innovation, but I'm just thinking of the private label and value brands are discussed. Do you feel comfortable with your price pack architecture as it stands now?

我有一份給喬恩，一份給安德烈。喬恩，關於美國銷量的複蘇，您是否認為更有必要通過促銷來捍衛入門級定價？我知道——我不想听起來好像我確實很欣賞你所說的關於幾項舉措或不僅僅是舉措的所有內容，我的意思是創新方面的真正市場份額增長，但我只是在考慮自有品牌和價值品牌進行了討論。您對目前的價格包架構感到滿意嗎？

And do you think that also related to the Fabric and Fem Care basically capacity increase. So you're now on shelf and you can be more tactical in some price points? And then, Andre, on the cost side for fiscal '24, it seems like you're calling a net benefit of $400 million in your net commodities plus FX and Plus Logistics. I understand that you use the spot prices and to the extent numbers come in better than that, would you see more of a need to reinvest or potentially flow through some of the savings into the bottom line?

您認為這也與織物和女性護理基本上產能的增加有關嗎？那麼您現在已經上架了，可以在某些價位上採取更具戰術性的策略嗎？然後，安德烈，在 24 財年的成本方面，您似乎稱您的淨商品加上外彙和物流的淨收益為 4 億美元。據我所知，您使用的是現貨價格，並且在數字比這更好的情況下，您是否會認為更多需要再投資或可能將一些節省的資金轉入利潤？

I'll start with the commodity question, commodity FX question. You're right, $800 million AT held on commodities, offset by $400 million in FX and $200 million in interest expense. Couple of points. One, as we've talked before, it takes time for these effects to flow through the P&L. So generally, we expect them to be more back-half weighted versus front-half weighted. And the same is true with any incremental help.

我將從商品問題、商品外匯問題開始。你是對的，8億美元的AT用於商品，被4億美元的外彙和2億美元的利息支出所抵消。有幾點。第一，正如我們之前討論過的，這些影響需要時間才能體現在損益表中。因此，一般來說，我們預計它們的後半部分權重會高於前半部分權重。對於任何增量幫助也是如此。

So if we see incremental help, it can take up to 6 to 9 months for it to flow through the P&L. So we need to keep that in mind. But I'll give you the same answer. I think we've given before, Andrea, will be ROI-driven. And it's really less defined by to get more commodity help or less commodity help are within guidance range without or outside of guidance range.

因此，如果我們看到增量幫助，可能需要長達 6 到 9 個月的時間才能體現在損益表中。所以我們需要牢記這一點。但我會給你同樣的答案。安德里亞，我認為我們之前已經說過，將以投資回報率為導向。實際上，獲得更多商品幫助或更少商品幫助在指導範圍內、沒有或超出指導範圍之間的定義並不明確。

The discussion is, is this the right investment to drive the strategy and create sustainable value. And if it is, we'll do everything possible to make the investment work. Obviously, if commodity help is coming, that's an easier decision. But will be 100% ROI driven, both in the short term and the long-term investments.

討論的焦點是，這是推動戰略並創造可持續價值的正確投資嗎？如果是的話，我們將盡一切可能使投資發揮作用。顯然，如果商品幫助到來，這是一個更容易的決定。但無論是短期投資還是長期投資，都將實現 100% 的投資回報率驅動。

And as it relates to opening price points, that's a very fair question, and something that we're always evaluating as you would expect. But there are several tools that we have available to us to ensure that we're providing good value to consumers for whom price becomes a challenge. We have a pack size, ensuring that we have pack sizes that are accommodated within their cash outlay capacity, making sure that we have offerings that are right for the channels that consumers typically go to when they come under economic pressure, ensuring that whether it's on the package, whether it's on the shelf, whether it's in advertising, we're clearly communicating the value that those offerings provide.

由於它與開盤價有關，這是一個非常公平的問題，我們總是按照您的預期進行評估。但我們可以使用多種工具來確保我們為價格成為挑戰的消費者提供良好的價值。我們有一個包裝尺寸，確保我們的包裝尺寸適合他們的現金支出能力，確保我們的產品適合消費者在面臨經濟壓力時通常會選擇的渠道，確保它是否在包裝，無論是在貨架上，還是在廣告中，我們都在清楚地傳達這些產品提供的價值。

And I think you'll see us going to the utilization of those tools much more frequently to fully delight and satisfy that shopper than we will simply price.

我想你會看到我們會更頻繁地使用這些工具來充分取悅和滿足購物者，而不是簡單地定價。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的卡勒姆·埃利奧特。

I wanted to drill a little bit more into reinvestment, please, and from a different angle. So my question really is about retail media spend. We've seen a lot of hype, if I can put it that way, about the potential of retail media from the retailers themselves, and in particular, the potential for CPG retail media spend to be incremental for the retailers.

我想從不同的角度對再投資進行更多的探討。所以我的問題實際上是關於零售媒體支出。如果我可以這麼說的話，我們已經看到了很多關於零售商本身零售媒體潛力的炒作，特別是消費品零售媒體支出為零售商帶來增量的潛力。

So my question is, can you talk a bit about retail media spend from your perspective, who's responsible for it within your business? Is it the brand teams or your customer teams? And is there a risk that this really will need to be incremental spend? Or is it just shifting from shopper marketing dollars and legacy media channels?

所以我的問題是，您能否從您的角度談談零售媒體支出，誰在您的業務中負責？是品牌團隊還是您的客戶團隊？是否存在確實需要增量支出的風險？或者它只是從購物者營銷資金和傳統媒體渠道轉移？

Yes, I can start, and then Jon, if you want to add. For us, any type of media spend, whether it's digital, online OTT TV, print or, as you say, customer media is part of the total mix. So what we're looking to do is optimize our reach effectively with the target and the frequency across all of those different touch points.

是的，我可以開始，然後喬恩，如果你想補充的話。對於我們來說，任何類型的媒體支出，無論是數字媒體、在線 OTT 電視、印刷媒體還是如您所說的客戶媒體，都是整個組合的一部分。因此，我們想要做的是通過所有這些不同接觸點的目標和頻率有效地優化我們的覆蓋範圍。

And just like any other channel, retailer media needs to earn its place in our marketing mix model based on the relative return that it can provide. Now are we working with our retail partners to maximize that return? Absolutely. There are plenty of opportunities in data sharing combining transaction data with media data to optimize and that is a strong reason why retailer-based marketing spending can make sense.

就像任何其他渠道一樣，零售商媒體需要根據其可以提供的相對回報在我們的營銷組合模型中贏得一席之地。現在我們是否正在與零售合作夥伴合作以最大化回報？絕對地。將交易數據與媒體數據相結合的數據共享有很多機會進行優化，這也是基於零售商的營銷支出有意義的一個重要原因。

But it is part of the overall marketing mix and it's managed in that way. So really, it's the brand teams that are managing their overall mix. And they are collaborating closely with the customer teams because in many cases, a well-timed investment in retailer media in line with merchandising plans on the floor or online can provide superior return on investment.

但它是整體營銷組合的一部分，並且是以這種方式進行管理的。所以實際上，是品牌團隊在管理他們的整體組合。他們與客戶團隊密切合作，因為在許多情況下，根據現場或在線銷售計劃對零售商媒體進行適時的投資可以提供卓越的投資回報。

And I like generally the concept of retailer media managed in just the way that Andre described, because I just generally believe that the majority of brand choice is made in a retail environment. And so if we can bring that all together, it offers significant opportunity.

我總體上喜歡以安德烈描述的方式管理零售商媒體的概念，因為我總體上認為大多數品牌選擇都是在零售環境中做出的。因此，如果我們能夠將所有這些結合在一起，它將提供重要的機會。

I think less brand choice is made sitting on a couch or even driving in a car on a way to a retail establishment. Same is true for online. So we're very carefully evaluating this opportunity, but it will be done in the context that Andre described.

我認為坐在沙發上甚至開車前往零售店的路上的品牌選擇較少。在線也是如此。因此，我們正在非常仔細地評估這個機會，但這將在安德烈描述的背景下完成。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

Two questions. First, on cost savings. That obviously improved materially as the year progressed. So do you feel like this is a sustainable improvement from here? Or to what extent does this perhaps reflect an elevated level after last year was a little bit depressed? And then second question is just realizing (inaudible) strong innovation, and that's led to a greater consumer willingness to stay with your premium brands, you alluded -- you talked about Dawn, for example.

兩個問題。首先，關於節約成本。隨著時間的推移，這種情況顯然有了實質性的改善。那麼您認為這是一個可持續的改進嗎？或者說，這在多大程度上反映了繼去年的低迷之後水平有所上升？然後第二個問題是實現（聽不清）強大的創新，這會導致消費者更願意繼續使用您的優質品牌，您提到 - 例如，您談到了 Dawn。

And it's obviously driven your ability to grow the category even when consumers are trading down to private label in certain instances. So Perhaps, can you talk about your innovation plans for fiscal '24, how it compares to your past?

即使消費者在某些情況下轉而購買自有品牌，這顯然也會推動您發展該類別的能力。那麼，您能否談談 24 財年的創新計劃，與過去相比如何？

Olivia. On the cost savings side, we are very confident in our previous statements that we will return to pre-COVID level across cost of goods, media savings and general productivity on the overhead side. And I think you saw that play out in quarter 4.

奧利維亞。在成本節約方面，我們對之前的聲明非常有信心，我們將在管理費用方面的商品成本、媒體節省和一般生產力方面恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。我想你在第四季度就看到了這一點。

As line time becomes available as we have more time with our suppliers, for example, as we start to implement Supply Chain 3.0 we're very confident in our ability to create up to $1.5 billion of net savings within the supply chain. We continue to generate a significant amount of savings via our media programs. And every business is looking at productivity opportunities to balance labor and wage cost inflation within the overhead structure.

隨著生產線時間的增加，我們有更多的時間與供應商相處，例如，當我們開始實施供應鏈 3.0 時，我們對在供應鏈內創造高達 15 億美元的淨節省的能力非常有信心。我們繼續通過我們的媒體計劃節省大量資金。每個企業都在尋找生產力機會，以平衡管理費用結構內的勞動力和工資成本通脹。

So I think quarter 4 is a good indication that we are able to do just that, get back to pre-COVID levels of productivity within those buckets that I described. In terms of innovation, what I'd tell you is, number one, we never stopped innovation. So we prioritize strong innovation throughout COVID and supply chain struggles. Because we knew that was the only way to create value for our retail partners and for our consumers as we had to take significant pricing in addition to productivity to offset the commodity cost increases that we saw.

因此，我認為第四季度是一個很好的跡象，表明我們能夠做到這一點，在我所描述的那些範圍內恢復到新冠疫情之前的生產力水平。在創新方面，我要告訴你的是，第一，我們從未停止創新。因此，我們在整個新冠疫情和供應鏈鬥爭中優先考慮強有力的創新。因為我們知道這是為我們的零售合作夥伴和消費者創造價值的唯一途徑，因為除了生產力之外，我們還必須採取重大定價來抵消我們看到的商品成本增加。

It's also important to register that our innovation is not just premium innovation. We are innovating across all value tiers because the concept of superiority requires us to be competitive or superior at every price tier. So on a brand like Luvs, for example, which is a value brand on diapers in the U.S., we're competing against private label offerings.

同樣重要的是要認識到我們的創新不僅僅是優質創新。我們正在所有價值層面進行創新，因為優勢的概念要求我們在每個價格層面都具有競爭力或卓越。例如，對於像 Luvs 這樣的美國尿布價值品牌，我們正在與自有品牌產品競爭。

So we need to be able to be superior and have the right innovation to do just that. I continue to see a very strong about innovation capability. We gave you a list of examples. There are plenty more. And I think the bigger strength we have is the hit rate that we've been able to demonstrate is very good.

因此，我們需要能夠做到卓越並擁有正確的創新來做到這一點。我繼續看到非常強的創新能力。我們為您提供了示例列表。還有很多。我認為我們擁有的更大優勢是我們能夠展示出非常好的命中率。

And as Jon mentioned, that gives confidence to retailers to support our innovation, which is the biggest help that we can get in addition to just truly consumer-based innovation, having the support of our retail partners to bring it on and drive category growth, and that allows us to create sustainable share growth for us.

正如喬恩提到的，這讓零售商有信心支持我們的創新，這是除了真正基於消費者的創新之外，我們可以獲得的最大幫助，得到我們零售合作夥伴的支持來實現並推動品類增長，這使我們能夠創造可持續的份額增長。

The next question comes from Peter Grom of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得·格羅姆。

So I was hoping to get some color in terms of how to think about the gross margin progression. You mentioned in response to Andreas' question, but the $800 million of depletion will be more back half weighted, but it still seems you'll have some healthy tailwinds from productivity and price. So just any thoughts in terms of how to think about the phasing of gross margin commodity cost pricing, productivity evolve? Just in the context of such strong momentum exiting this year.

因此，我希望能夠了解如何思考毛利率的進展。您在回答安德烈亞斯的問題時提到，8 億美元的消耗將更多地被後半加權，但似乎您仍然會從生產力和價格方面獲得一些健康的推動力。那麼，關於如何考慮毛利率商品成本定價、生產力發展的階段性，有什麼想法嗎？正是在今年出現如此強勁勢頭的背景下。

Peter. Look, I'll leave it at we're starting -- just starting to recover a lot of the gross margin that was impacted by the commodity cost inflation. Obviously, our objective is to continue to recover and get back to pre-COVID levels and then grow from there. Our algorithm requires with mid-single-digit top line growth, mid- to high single-digit EPS growth requires somewhere between 20 and 60 basis points of operating margin expansion.

彼得.聽著，我將把它留在我們剛剛開始的時候——剛剛開始恢復受商品成本通脹影響的大量毛利率。顯然，我們的目標是繼續恢復並回到新冠疫情前的水平，然後從那裡開始增長。我們的算法要求實現中個位數的營收增長，中高個位數的 EPS 增長需要營業利潤率擴張 20 到 60 個基點。

And a part of that will have to come from gross margin expansion because as we said, we strive to continue to invest in the business across innovation, across communication to drive superiority. I won't give you detailed guidance, but we're still on the path to recovering back to pre-COVID levels.

其中一部分必須來自毛利率的擴張，因為正如我們所說，我們努力繼續在創新、溝通方面投資於業務，以推動優勢。我不會給你詳細的指導，但我們仍在恢復到新冠疫情前水平的路上。

The next question comes from Filippo Falorni of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

Just a clarification on your organic sales growth guidance. You mentioned global -- you expect the global market to grow 4% with modest growth in volume. Can you break down like what your expectation for your volume assumption are for '24? And even just in terms of cadence, could we see, given the strong improvement that you saw in Q4, some volume growth at a total company level even in the first half of the year? Or do you think it's more of a second half in terms of volume growth for P&G?

只是對您的有機銷售增長指導的澄清。您提到了全球——您預計全球市場將增長 4%，且銷量略有增長。您能否像您對 24 年銷量假設的預期那樣進行細分？即使僅就節奏而言，鑑於您在第四季度看到的強勁改善，我們能否看到即使在今年上半年，整個公司層面的銷量也會有所增長？或者您是否認為寶潔公司下半年的銷量增長更多？

Yes. Maybe starting by deconstructing the global market growth number. We expect 1 point to 1.5 points of that over our fiscal year to come from volume. So these are global market growth numbers 1 point to 1.5 points in volume, same amount from mix, same amount from price. We strive to grow ahead of that. What exactly the composition of our growth is, I think, will depend. And we'll see. So if I had to give you a number, I don't think I could at this point in time. We expect sequential progress on the volume line, let's put it that way.

是的。也許可以從解構全球市場增長數據開始。我們預計本財年其中 1 到 1.5 個百分點將來自銷量。因此，這些是全球市場的增長數字，數量為 1 到 1.5 個百分點，來自組合的數量相同，來自價格的數量相同。我們努力領先於此。我認為，我們的增長到底由什麼組成將取決於情況。我們拭目以待。因此，如果我必須給你一個數字，我想我現在還不能。我們預計銷量會取得連續進展，這麼說吧。

And we will do everything possible to make that progress happen by driving market growth because specifically on the volume side, that will be the most constructive way to drive our growth in '24.

我們將盡一切可能通過推動市場增長來實現這一進展，因為特別是在銷量方面，這將是推動我們 24 年增長的最具建設性的方式。

The next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券的克里斯·凱里。

So just 2 quick questions for me. First, with leverage where it's trending free cash flow generation is strong. Why not buy back more stock or be guided more buybacks for the year? And second, good progress on SK-II in the quarter, can we just get any context on where you think the brand is today, some of the channel health. And this seems to be quite an important driver of growth. And just want to get a some context on whether we can get back to those sorts of -- that sort of contribution on a more durable basis going forward.

我只想問兩個簡單的問題。首先，在自由現金流生成趨勢強勁的地方使用槓桿。為什麼不回購更多股票或引導今年進行更多回購？其次，本季度 SK-II 取得了良好進展，我們能否了解您認為該品牌目前的狀況，以及一些渠道的健康狀況。這似乎是一個相當重要的增長動力。只是想了解一些背景信息，了解我們是否可以在未來更持久的基礎上重新做出此類貢獻。

Got it. Yes, Chris, on free cash flow, I'll just tell you our capital allocation priorities haven't changed. We'll fully fund the business. We will pay the dividend. We will do M&A where it makes sense, and then we will return cash via share repurchase. Just keep in mind, we had 2 years where operating income was severely limited because of the recovery of commodity cost increases, foreign exchange. So that explains, I think, a little bit of that share repurchase number being a little bit lower.

知道了。是的，克里斯，關於自由現金流，我只想告訴你我們的資本配置優先事項沒有改變。我們將為該業務提供全額資金。我們將支付股息。我們將在有意義的情況下進行併購，然後我們將通過股票回購返還現金。請記住，由於商品成本增加和外彙的恢復，我們有兩年的營業收入受到嚴重限制。因此，我認為這可以解釋為什麼股票回購數量稍微低一些。

But if you look at the average, we're still returning $14 billion to $15 billion to shareowners, which is right in line with what we've been doing over previous years. On SK-II, 20% growth in the quarter looks great on the headline. Just keep in mind, we're building that off of a very weak base period with Shanghai lockdowns. So I wouldn't want you to extrapolate that straight into fiscal '24. I think most importantly, the team is doing a great job in putting SK-II on a solid footing, both from a channel perspective, making sure that the pricing across different channels, travel retail, domestic travel, retail and domestic markets is in a sustainable place.

但如果你看一下平均值，我們仍然向股東返還 140 億至 150 億美元，這與我們前幾年所做的事情是一致的。對於 SK-II，本季度 20% 的增長看起來很棒。請記住，我們是在上海封鎖期間非常疲弱的基期基礎上建立起來的。所以我不希望你直接將其推斷到 24 財年。我認為最重要的是，團隊在讓 SK-II 站穩腳跟方面做得非常出色，無論是從渠道的角度來看，還是確保不同渠道、旅遊零售、國內旅遊、零售和國內市場的定價處於合理的水平。可持續的地方。

They are investing in the core equity of the brand, with a new campaign, and they are building retail support and trial. All of those things, I believe, are a good indicator of where we're headed. And early signs within China, for example, are very strong positive consumer reviews and initially, the positive share growth. So we're headed in the right direction, but probably not quite at the clip you saw in quarter 4.

他們正在通過新的營銷活動投資品牌的核心資產，並建立零售支持和試用。我相信，所有這些都是我們前進方向的良好指標。例如，在中國的早期跡像是非常強烈的正面消費者評價以及最初的積極份額增長。所以我們正朝著正確的方向前進，但可能並不完全是你在第四季度看到的剪輯。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

Actually, ironically wanted to ask about SK-II but more in a portfolio construct view. So how do you think about Prestige beauty fitting into your portfolio. I think it's been a question for years in terms of just go-to-market and sort of synergies with the rest of the beauty business, you've obviously done some selective M&A, not necessarily co-selling that with SK-II in certain businesses and markets.

實際上，具有諷刺意味的是，我想問有關 SK-II 的問題，但更多的是從投資組合構建的角度來看。那麼您如何看待 Prestige Beauty 融入您的投資組合？我認為多年來，就進入市場以及與其他美容業務的協同效應而言，這一直是一個問題，你顯然已經進行了一些選擇性的併購，不一定在某些方面與 SK-II 共同銷售。企業和市場。

So I guess as you take a step back and look at the volatility, obviously, partly COVID related over the last 3 to 4 years, there's been volatility there. Market is improving, but some signs that the go-to-market that existed 3 years ago, 4 years ago, pre-COVID, is shifting in terms of how you sell those products. So are the same synergies in going to market there today versus where you were a few years ago?

所以我想，當你退後一步看看波動性時，很明顯，過去 3 到 4 年來，部分與新冠疫情相關，那裡一直存在波動。市場正在改善，但一些跡象表明，3年前、4年前、新冠疫情爆發之前存在的進入市場的方式正在改變銷售這些產品的方式。那麼，與幾年前相比，現在進入那里市場是否會產生同樣的協同效應？

Are you still getting the same synergies in terms of flow-through to technologies that you're using in Olay? And then related to all of that, how do you think about that current portfolio today? Does it need to be bigger? Does it need to be shifted a bit in categories you content with where you are? So long-winded question but also related to SK-II.

您在玉蘭油中使用的技術流通方面是否仍能獲得相同的協同效應？與所有這些相關，您如何看待當前的投資組合？需要更大嗎？是否需要在您滿意的類別中進行一些調整？這麼囉嗦的問題還和SK-II有關。

As you know, we want to be present in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. We love SK-II in that context, and it's performed very well over the years.

如您所知，我們希望進入性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別。我們喜歡 SK-II 在這方面的表現，多年來它的表現非常出色。

As you indicated, the more recent volatility is due to channel dynamics and COVID dynamics, all of which are beginning to turn more favorable. That will take a little bit of time. But this is a brand that we like. We have said that from a portfolio standpoint, there are 2 categories that we're most interested in from an acquisition standpoint, albeit in a very disciplined way. And those are the same 2 categories where we've been making smaller acquisitions. Those 2 categories are Personal Health Care and Skin Care.

正如您所指出的，最近的波動是由於渠道動態和新冠疫情動態造成的，所有這些都開始變得更加有利。這需要一點時間。但這是我們喜歡的品牌。我們說過，從投資組合的角度來看，從收購的角度來看，我們最感興趣的是兩個類別，儘管是以非常嚴格的方式進行的。這也是我們一直在進行較小規模收購的兩個類別。這兩個類別是個人保健和皮膚護理。

The final question comes from Bill Chappell of Truist Securities.

最後一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Bill Chappell。

Just a question on Grooming. One, I might have missed what was going on in Europe. So if you can kind of clarify that in the disruption.

只是一個關於修飾的問題。第一，我可能錯過了歐洲正在發生的事情。所以如果你能在中斷中澄清這一點。

But two, this seems to be kind of the best category to gauge pandemic behavior, it pulled back meaningfully during pandemic. Obviously, we've had a reopening for the past 2 years. So can you maybe give us the state of the state of that industry as we go into what looks like a normalized next 12 months? Or are we at a normalized? Yes, I don't know if we've even back to where we were in 2019.

但第二，這似乎是衡量大流行行為的最佳類別，它在大流行期間顯著回落。顯然，我們在過去兩年裡重新開業了。那麼，當我們進入看似正常化的未來 12 個月時，您能否向我們介紹一下該行業的狀況？或者說我們正處於常態化狀態？是的，我不知道我們是否回到了 2019 年的水平。

Yes. Look, if you look at the Grooming business, I would first tell you the last 2 quarters have been very strong quarters. The Braun business, so the more appliance side of the business had been annualizing a very strong base period during the pandemic as more and more folks have brought some of these jobs in-house versus going to barber shops or beauty salons. And obviously, that had a very high base. So we're annualizing that base. On the core grooming side, when you think about male blades and razors, female hair removal or beard care, I think the business has done a fantastic job in expanding the jobs to be done that we cover.

是的。聽著，如果你看看美容業務，我首先會告訴你過去兩個季度的表現非常強勁。博朗業務，因此該業務的更多電器方面在大流行期間年化了一個非常強勁的基期，因為越來越多的人將其中一些工作帶到內部而不是去理髮店或美容院。顯然，這有一個非常高的基礎。所以我們對該基數進行年度化。在核心美容方面，當你想到男性刀片和剃須刀、女性脫毛或鬍鬚護理時，我認為該公司在擴大我們涵蓋的工作範圍方面做得非常出色。

And driving honestly, market growth across each of those segments, and that will continue. So in terms of future outlook, we feel very good about the business, recovering already in the second half, mainly from the Braun strong base period. And I think the plans for current fiscal year are strong.

誠實地推動每個細分市場的市場增長，而且這種情況將持續下去。因此，就未來前景而言，我們對業務感覺非常好，下半年已經開始復蘇，主要是從博朗強勁的基期恢復過來。我認為本財年的計劃是強有力的。

I want to thank everybody for your time this morning. We appreciate it. We know this is a busy morning for you. We'll let you get on to other things. I just want to provide one last recognition of the team here at P&G, who is working hard to serve consumers, customers, each other, society and, of course, our shareowners. Thank you for your interest.

我要感謝大家今天早上抽出寶貴的時間。我們很感激。我們知道這對您來說是一個忙碌的早晨。我們會讓你繼續做其他事情。我只是想對寶潔團隊進行最後一次表彰，他們正在努力為消費者、客戶、彼此、社會，當然還有我們的股東服務。感謝您的關注。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。