寶潔 (PG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter-End Conference Call. Today's event is being recorded for replay. This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures.

早上好，歡迎來到寶潔公司的季度末電話會議。正在錄製今天的活動以供重播。本次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告，您會看到對可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測存在重大差異的因素的討論。根據 G 條例的要求，寶潔需要讓您知道，在討論過程中，公司將多次提及非 GAAP 和其他財務指標。

Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

Procter & Gamble 認為這些衡量標準為投資者提供了了解潛在業務趨勢的有用視角，並已在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了非 GAAP 財務衡量標準的全面調整。現在我將把電話轉給寶潔公司的首席財務官安德烈·舒爾滕。

Good morning. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We're going to keep our prepared remarks brief and then turn straight to your questions. Execution of our integrated strategies continued to yield good results in the October to December quarter, growing organic sales in 9 of 10 categories, holding global aggregate market share, continued productivity savings, improving supply efficiency, sustained investment and superiority of our brands across all 5 vectors: product, package, communication, go-to-market and value continue to pay benefits for our consumers and retail partners and in turn, for P&G shareholders.

早上好。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Jon Moeller；和投資者關係高級副總裁 John Chevalier。我們將使準備好的發言保持簡短，然後直接回答您的問題。我們綜合戰略的執行在 10 月至 12 月季度繼續取得良好成果，10 個類別中有 9 個類別的有機銷售額增長，保持全球總市場份額，持續節省生產力，提高供應效率，持續投資和我們所有 5 個品牌的優勢向量：產品、包裝、溝通、上市和價值繼續為我們的消費者和零售合作夥伴帶來收益，進而為寶潔股東帶來收益。

Progress against our plan fiscal year-to-date enables us to increase the guidance range for organic sales growth and maintain ranges for core EPS growth, free cash flow productivity and cash return to shareowners. Moving to the second quarter numbers. Organic sales grew 5%, pricing at 10 points to sales growth and mix was up 1 point. Volume declined 6 points driven by a combination of market contraction, trade inventory reductions and portfolio reduction in Russia.

本財年迄今我們計劃的進展使我們能夠擴大有機銷售增長的指導範圍，並保持核心每股收益增長、自由現金流生產率和股東現金回報的範圍。轉到第二季度的數字。有機銷售額增長 5%，定價為銷售額增長 10 個百分點，組合增長 1 個百分點。受俄羅斯市場收縮、貿易庫存減少和投資組合減少的共同影響，成交量下降了 6 個百分點。

Growth was broad-based across business units with each of our 10 product categories growing or holding organic sales. Personal Health Care grew high teens, Feminine Care, Fabric Care and Home Care were up high single digits. Hair Care was up mid-single digits. Baby Care, Family Care, Oral Care and Skin and Personal Care were each up low single digits. Grooming was in line with prior year.

各業務部門的增長基礎廣泛，我們的 10 個產品類別中的每一個都在增長或保持有機銷售額。個人保健增長了十幾歲，女性護理、織物護理和家庭護理增長了高個位數。護髮業務增長了中等個位數。嬰兒護理、家庭護理、口腔護理以及皮膚和個人護理均出現低個位數增長。修飾與前一年一致。

Focus markets grew 3% for the quarter, with the U.S. up 6%. Greater China organic sales were down 7% versus prior year, as the market continued to be impacted by COVID lockdowns and weaker consumer confidence. We continue to expect a slow recovery as consumer mobility increases over the coming quarters. Long term, we expect China to return to strong underlying growth rates.

焦點市場本季度增長 3%，其中美國增長 6%。由於市場繼續受到 COVID 封鎖和消費者信心減弱的影響，大中華區有機銷售額較上年下降 7%。隨著未來幾個季度消費者流動性的增加，我們繼續預計復甦將緩慢進行。從長遠來看，我們預計中國將恢復強勁的基本增長率。

Enterprise markets were up 14% with each of the 3 regions up 10% or more. Global aggregate market share was in line with prior year with 27 of our top 50 category country combinations holding or growing share. In the U.S., all outlet value share was in line with prior year with 7 of 10 categories holding or growing share.

企業市場增長了 14%，三個地區中的每一個都增長了 10% 或更多。全球總市場份額與上一年持平，我們排名前 50 的國家/地區組合中有 27 個持有或增長份額。在美國，所有奧特萊斯價值份額與上一年持平，10 個類別中有 7 個保持或增長份額。

U.S. volume share is up 0.5 point versus the prior year quarter delivering sequential improvement from quarter 1. Recent innovations like Downy Rinse & Refresh in fabric enhancers and Dawn Powerwash in hand dishwashing are extending superiority advantages and driving value and volume share growth. Innovation also serves as a catalyst for pricing across our other brands and forms in their category segments.

美國銷量份額較上年同期上升 0.5 個百分點，較第一季度有所改善。最近的創新，如織物增強劑中的 Downy Rinse & Refresh 和手洗洗碗機中的 Dawn Powerwash，正在擴大優勢優勢並推動價值和銷量份額增長。創新還可以促進我們其他品牌及其品類細分市場的定價。

On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.59, down 4% versus prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 5%. Core operating margin decreased 170 basis points, primarily due to gross margin pressure from commodities and foreign exchange. Currency-neutral core operating margin decreased 70 basis points.

最重要的是，每股核心收益為 1.59 美元，比上年下降 4%。在貨幣中性的基礎上，核心每股收益增長了 5%。核心營業利潤率下降 170 個基點，這主要是由於商品和外匯帶來的毛利率壓力。貨幣中性核心營業利潤率下降 70 個基點。

Productivity improvements were 110 basis points help to the quarter. Adjusted free cash flow productivity was 72%, primarily due to a temporary reduction in payables. We returned $4.2 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.2 billion in dividends and $2 billion in share repurchase.

生產率提高對本季度有 110 個基點的幫助。調整後的自由現金流生產率為 72%，這主要是由於應付賬款的暫時減少。我們向股東返還了 42 億美元的現金，約 22 億美元的股息和 20 億美元的股票回購。

In summary, considering the backdrop of a very challenging cost and operating environment, continued solid results across the top line, bottom line and cash for the first half of the fiscal year.

總而言之，考慮到成本和運營環境極具挑戰性的背景，本財年上半年的收入、利潤和現金繼續取得穩健的業績。

Moving on to strategy. Our team continues to operate with excellence, executing the integrated strategies that have enabled strong results over the past 4 years, and that are the foundation for balanced growth and value creation. A portfolio of daily use products, many providing cleaning, health and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice.

繼續戰略。我們的團隊繼續以卓越的方式運營，執行綜合戰略，這些戰略在過去 4 年中取得了強勁的成果，並且是平衡增長和價值創造的基礎。一系列日常用品，其中許多在性能在品牌選擇中起著重要作用的類別中提供清潔、健康和衛生方面的好處。

Ongoing commitment to and investment in irresistible superiority across the 5 vectors of product, package, brand communication, retail execution and value. As discussed during our Investor Day in November, we are renewing our superiority standards to reflect the dynamic nature of this strategy.

持續致力於並投資於產品、包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和價值這 5 個方面的不可抗拒的優勢。正如我們在 11 月的投資者日討論的那樣，我們正在更新我們的優勢標準以反映該戰略的動態性質。

Productivity improvement in all areas of our operations to fund investments in superiority offset cost and currency challenges expand margins and deliver strong cash generation. An approach of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry for the future, especially important in this volatile environment.

我們運營所有領域的生產力都得到提高，以資助優勢抵消成本和貨幣挑戰的投資，從而擴大利潤並產生強勁的現金。一種建設性的破壞方法，一種改變、適應和創造新趨勢和技術的意願，這些趨勢和技術將塑造我們行業的未來，在這個多變的環境中尤其重要。

Finally, an organization that is increasingly more empowered, agile and accountable with little overlap or redundancy, flowing to new demands, seamlessly reporting each other to deliver against our priorities around the world. Going forward, there are 4 areas we are driving to improve the execution of the integrated strategies, supply chain 3.0, digital acumen, environmental sustainability and employee value creation.

最後，一個越來越有權力、敏捷和負責任的組織，幾乎沒有重疊或冗餘，滿足新的需求，無縫地相互報告，以實現我們在世界各地的優先事項。展望未來，我們將在 4 個領域推動改善綜合戰略的執行、供應鏈 3.0、數字化敏銳度、環境可持續性和員工價值創造。

These are not new or separate strategies. They are necessary elements in continuing to build superiority, reduce cost to enable investment and value creation and to further strengthen our organization. We expanded on each of these at our Investor Day in November. If you weren't able to attend or listen in remotely, I encourage you to review the materials on our IR events website.

這些不是新的或單獨的策略。它們是繼續建立優勢、降低成本以實現投資和價值創造以及進一步加強我們組織的必要元素。我們在 11 月的投資者日對每一個進行了擴展。如果您無法遠程參加或收聽，我鼓勵您查看我們 IR 活動網站上的材料。

Our strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization are interdependent strategies. They reinforce and build on each other. When executed well, they grow markets, which in turn grows share, sales and profit. We continue to believe that the best path forward to deliver sustainable top and bottom line growth is to double down on these integrated strategies starting with commitment to deliver irresistible superior propositions to consumers and retail partners.

我們在產品組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆和組織方面的戰略選擇是相互依存的戰略。他們相互加強和建立。如果執行得當，它們會擴大市場，進而增加市場份額、銷售額和利潤。我們仍然相信，實現可持續的收入和利潤增長的最佳途徑是加倍實施這些綜合戰略，從承諾向消費者和零售合作夥伴提供不可抗拒的優質產品開始。

Now moving to guidance. We continue to expect more volatility in costs, currencies and consumer dynamics as we move through the second half of the fiscal year. However, we think the strategies we've chosen, the investments we've made and the focus on executional excellence have positioned us well to manage through this volatility over time.

現在轉向指導。隨著我們進入本財年下半年，我們繼續預計成本、貨幣和消費者動態會出現更多波動。然而，我們認為我們選擇的戰略、我們所做的投資以及對卓越執行的關注使我們能夠很好地應對隨著時間的推移而發生的這種波動。

Raw and pack material costs inclusive of commodities and supplier inflation are still a significant headwind versus last fiscal year though we have seen some modest sequential improvement. Based on current spot prices and latest contracts, we now estimate a $2.3 billion after-tax headwind in fiscal '23.

與上一財年相比，包括大宗商品和供應商通脹在內的原材料和包裝材料成本仍然是一個重大的阻力，儘管我們已經看到一些適度的環比改善。根據當前現貨價格和最新合同，我們現在估計 23 財年的稅後阻力為 23 億美元。

Foreign exchange is also a significant year-on-year headwind. But like raw and pack materials, we've seen modest directional improvement. Based on current exchange rates, we now forecast a $1.2 billion after-tax impact for the fiscal year.

外匯也是一個重大的同比逆風。但就像原材料和包裝材料一樣，我們看到了適度的方向性改善。根據當前匯率，我們現在預測本財年的稅後影響為 12 億美元。

Freight costs remain higher versus prior year, and we continue to expect the $200 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '23. Combined headwinds from these items are now estimated at approximately $3.7 billion after tax, $1.50 per share, a 26 percentage point headwind to EPS growth for the year.

運費成本仍高於上一年，我們繼續預計 23 財年將出現 2 億美元的稅後逆風。這些項目的綜合逆風現在估計約為稅後 37 億美元，每股 1.50 美元，對全年每股收益增長造成 26 個百分點的逆風。

For perspective, recall that we began the year expecting approximately $1.33 of cost and FX headwinds. So despite some modest relief since last quarter, our current outlook is still $0.17 worse than our ingoing position. We are offsetting a portion of these cost headwinds with price increases and productivity savings, we are continuing to invest in irresistible superiority, and we are investing to improve our supply capacity, resilience and flexibility.

從長遠來看，回想一下我們今年年初預計成本和外匯逆風約為 1.33 美元。因此，儘管自上個季度以來有所緩解，但我們目前的前景仍比我們的初始頭寸低 0.17 美元。我們正在通過價格上漲和生產力節約來抵消部分成本逆風，我們將繼續投資於不可抗拒的優勢，我們正在投資以提高我們的供應能力、彈性和靈活性。

As we've said before, we believe this is a bottom line rough patch to grow through with continued investment in the business and underlying strategies. As I noted at the outset, our solid first half results enabled us to raise our organic sales outlook and confirm our guidance ranges on EPS and cash. We are increasing our guidance for organic sales growth from a range of 3% to 5% to a range of 4% to 5%.

正如我們之前所說，我們認為這是通過對業務和基礎戰略的持續投資來實現增長的底線。正如我在一開始就指出的那樣，我們上半年的穩健業績使我們能夠提高我們的有機銷售前景並確認我們對每股收益和現金的指導範圍。我們將對有機銷售增長的指導從 3% 到 5% 提高到 4% 到 5%。

Within this company-wide range, we -- there are many puts and takes. As I mentioned, we expect to see some modest improvement in China, but European markets have softened as high inflation affects consumer spending. The U.S. remains relatively strong to date, and most enterprise markets remain resilient.

在全公司範圍內，我們 - 有很多投入和投入。正如我所提到的，我們預計中國會出現一些適度改善，但由於高通脹影響消費者支出，歐洲市場已經走軟。迄今為止，美國仍然相對強勁，大多數企業市場保持彈性。

On the bottom line, we're maintaining our outlook of core earnings per share growth in the range of in line to plus 4% versus prior year. The significant headwinds from input costs and foreign exchange keep our current expectations towards the lower end of this range. This guidance also reflects our intent to remain fully invested to drive our superiority strategy and increase investments as opportunities are available.

最重要的是，我們維持核心每股收益增長預期在與上年同期相比增長 4% 至 4% 的範圍內。投入成本和外匯帶來的重大不利因素使我們目前的預期保持在該範圍的低端。該指南還反映了我們繼續充分投資以推動我們的優勢戰略並在有機會時增加投資的意圖。

We continue to forecast adjusted free cash flow productivity of 90%. We expect to pay around $9 billion of dividends and to repurchase $6 billion to $8 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $15 billion to $17 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major production stoppages or store closures are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.

我們繼續預測調整後的自由現金流生產率為 90%。我們預計將支付約 90 億美元的股息並回購 60 億美元至 80 億美元的普通股，併計劃在本財年向股東返還 150 億美元至 170 億美元的現金。這一展望基於當前的市場增長率估計、商品價格和外匯匯率。在這些指導範圍內，預計不會出現顯著的額外貨幣疲軟、商品成本增加、地緣政治中斷、主要生產停工或商店關閉。

To conclude, we continue to face high year-over-year commodity and transportation cost inflation in the upstream supply chain and in our own operations, headwinds from foreign exchange, geopolitical issues, COVID disruptions impacting consumer confidence and historically high inflation impacting consumer budgets. These macroeconomic and market level consumer challenges we're facing are not unique to P&G and we won't be immune to the impact. We attempt to be realistic about these impacts in our guidance and transparent in our commentary.

總而言之，我們在上游供應鍊和我們自己的運營中繼續面臨商品和運輸成本的同比高通脹、外匯逆風、地緣政治問題、影響消費者信心的 COVID 中斷以及影響消費者預算的歷史高通脹。我們面臨的這些宏觀經濟和市場層面的消費者挑戰並不是寶潔公司獨有的，我們也無法倖免。我們試圖在我們的指南中對這些影響採取現實的態度，並在我們的評論中保持透明。

As we've said before, we believe this is a rough patch to grow through, not a reason to reduce investment in the long-term health of the business. We're doubling down on the strategy that has been working well and is delivering strong results. We continue to step forward towards our opportunities, and we remain fully invested in our business. We are committed to driving productivity, improvements to fund growth investments, mitigate input cost challenges and to deliver balanced top and bottom line growth. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

正如我們之前所說，我們認為這是一段艱難的成長過程，而不是減少對企業長期健康投資的理由。我們正在加倍努力實施一直運作良好並取得強勁成果的戰略。我們繼續朝著我們的機會邁進，我們仍然全力投資於我們的業務。我們致力於提高生產率，改善增長投資資金，緩解投入成本挑戰，並實現平衡的收入和利潤增長。有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Dara Mohsenian of Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So just a couple of questions on the full year guidance. Obviously, you didn't change the earnings guidance despite FX and commodities, each being a little less negative than you originally thought. Is that more sort of making up for some of the sequential moves that we saw in Q1? Is it more you assuming reinvestment in the back half? Or is there something else in the back half? Just help us understand the reasoning there.

所以只有幾個關於全年指導的問題。顯然，儘管外彙和大宗商品的負面影響比您原先想像的要小一些，但您並沒有改變盈利指引。這是否更多地彌補了我們在第一季度看到的一些連續變動？您是否更多地假設在後半部分進行再投資？或者後半部分還有別的東西？只是幫助我們理解那裡的推理。

And basically, the same question on top line. I don't want to get into a 10-part question, but there's a bunch of sort of back and forth here. You raised the low end of the full year org sales range, but Q2 decelerated a bit versus Q1, the back half in theory implies a deceleration and volumes were a little weaker in the quarter. So maybe just taking a step back, how do you feel about the business in terms of looking at retail takeaway in fiscal Q2 and thoughts on the back half of the year?

基本上，同樣的問題在最上面。我不想討論一個由 10 部分組成的問題，但這裡有很多來回的問題。你提高了全年組織銷售範圍的低端，但第二季度與第一季度相比有所放緩，理論上後半部分意味著減速，本季度的銷量略有下降。因此，也許只是退後一步，您如何看待第二財季的零售外賣業務以及對下半年的想法？

All right. I'll give it a try, Dara. So on the total year forecast, I think I have one result in, we are on track -- very well on track to deliver the year and the guidance ranges that we're communicating. When you look at our EPS delivery for the balance of the year, we are assuming, as we always do, current spot rates on commodities and foreign exchange. And given our desire to reinvest, we would not assume that every dollar that we see in commodities and foreign exchange immediately flows through to the bottom line. We see significant upside for us to continue to invest in superiority across all 5 vectors. And if that upside is available to us, we will do that in the short term and the midterm.

好的。我會試試看的，達拉。因此，關於全年預測，我想我有一個結果，我們正在走上正軌 - 非常有可能交付我們正在溝通的年度和指導範圍。當您查看我們今年剩餘時間的 EPS 交付時，我們一如既往地假設商品和外彙的當前即期匯率。考慮到我們的再投資願望，我們不會假設我們在商品和外匯中看到的每一美元都會立即流向利潤。我們認為我們繼續投資於所有 5 個向量的優勢有很大的好處。如果我們有這種優勢，我們將在短期和中期這樣做。

We have -- also, as we said in the prepared remarks, we are still above ingoing assumptions. So $0.17 worse than we had at the time when we provided the initial guidance, so that leads us to continue to be pointed towards the lower end of the core EPS range. But as you say, with more help coming, that probably is increasing our confidence to deliver that range or hopefully slightly better. On the top line, again, when we look at the half one results, we feel very good about our standing here to deliver a higher -- the higher end of our initial top line guidance. So that's why we raised to 4% to 5% organic sales growth.

我們還有——正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們仍然超出了正在進行的假設。因此，比我們提供初始指導時的價格低 0.17 美元，這導致我們繼續指向核心 EPS 範圍的低端。但正如您所說，隨著更多幫助的到來，這可能會增加我們實現該範圍或希望稍好一些的信心。最重要的是，當我們看到一半的結果時，我們對我們站在這裡提供更高的——我們最初的最高指導方針的高端感到非常高興。這就是為什麼我們將有機銷售增長提高到 4% 到 5%。

And the fact that we see low volumes in the current quarter really is important to understand in more depth. So the 6% or 5.8% negative volume on the quarter, when you dissected, about half of that is not really consumption-driven. So we have a point related to our portfolio choice in Russia, where we cut the portfolio by 50% to focus on essentials versus the full portfolio we were operating before. We have about 2 points related to temporary inventory reductions, which we saw in China with the market heavily impacted by COVID lockdowns and O&D and especially on the offline side of the market, we see retailer inventories reduced reserve cash.

事實上，我們看到本季度的銷量很低，這對於更深入地了解確實很重要。因此，當你剖析時，本季度 6% 或 5.8% 的負交易量，其中大約一半並不是真正由消費驅動的。因此，我們有一點與我們在俄羅斯的投資組合選擇有關，我們將投資組合削減了 50%，以專注於必需品，而不是我們之前運營的全部投資組合。我們有大約 2 點與臨時庫存減少有關，我們在中國看到市場受到 COVID 鎖定和 O&D 的嚴重影響，尤其是在市場的線下方面，我們看到零售商庫存減少了儲備現金。

We saw some inventory reduction in Oral Care and Appliances in Europe. And we have seen in late December, very strong consumption in the U.S., where retail orders haven't quite kept up with that consumption. So if you strip that out, the actual consumption-related volume decline is about 3% on the quarter, which is in line with what we've seen in quarter 1, which is in line with our expectation and elasticities that we would have expected, given the amount of pricing that is in the market. What is encouraging to us to raise the top line guidance is that our volume shares are holding globally, our value shares are holding globally.

我們看到歐洲口腔護理和器具的庫存有所減少。我們在 12 月下旬看到美國的消費非常強勁，零售訂單跟不上消費。因此，如果將其剔除，本季度實際與消費相關的銷量下降約 3%，這與我們在第一季度看到的情況一致，這符合我們的預期和我們預期的彈性，給定市場上的定價量。令我們鼓舞的是，我們提高了頂線指導，我們的數量份額在全球範圍內持有，我們的價值份額在全球範圍內持有。

And when we look at the U.S., our biggest and most important markets, we actually see an acceleration of volume share by 50 basis points over the past 3 months and even 80 basis points over the past 1 month. Again, all of that gives us confidence to raise the top line guidance while we want to preserve the flexibility to continue to invest in superiority to drive more sustainable growth. And honestly, that's going to be our job here over the next few quarters, continue to drive household penetration to reinvigorate overall volume growth in the category.

當我們審視我們最大和最重要的市場美國時，我們實際上看到過去 3 個月的銷量份額加速了 50 個基點，過去 1 個月甚至加速了 80 個基點。同樣，所有這些都讓我們有信心提高頂線指導，同時我們希望保持靈活性，繼續投資優勢以推動更可持續的增長。老實說，這將是我們未來幾個季度的工作，繼續推動家庭普及率，以重振該類別的整體銷量增長。

Dara, this is Jon. I would just add a couple of pieces of perspective at a macro level. The world seems to want everything to be better, as do I. That's really not reality though. There's an incredible amount of uncertainty that remains. None of us, I think, globally really understand what the recovery rate in China is going to be as an example. And nobody really understands what the new policies and practices are going to mean in terms of consumer confidence in that context.

達拉，這是喬恩。我只想在宏觀層面上添加幾個觀點。世界似乎希望一切都變得更好，我也是。但這真的不是現實。仍然存在大量的不確定性。我認為，在全球範圍內，我們當中沒有人真正了解中國的複蘇率，例如。沒有人真正理解新政策和做法在這種情況下對消費者信心意味著什麼。

You have the war in Eastern Europe, the highest inflation rates in 40 years, you have continued volatility in both the currency markets and the commodity markets. And importantly, that currency exposure for us is not a simple dollar exposure. There's a lot of cross rate exposures within that, which I realize makes it difficult to penetrate. But for example, the cross rate between the British pound and the euro has a significant impact on our bottom line. So all that put together, while -- I'm extremely happy with the progress the organization is making. I'm extremely confident that the strategy that we have is the right one and it's going to continue to serve us well. It's just not an easy time to be taking up guidance to the top range of possibility.

東歐發生戰爭，通貨膨脹率達到 40 年來最高，貨幣市場和商品市場持續波動。重要的是，我們的貨幣敞口不僅僅是美元敞口。其中有很多交叉率風險敞口，我意識到這很難滲透。但例如，英鎊和歐元之間的交叉匯率對我們的底線有重大影響。所以所有這些放在一起，同時 - 我對組織正在取得的進展感到非常高興。我非常有信心，我們的戰略是正確的，它將繼續為我們服務。現在不是接受最高可能性指導的好時機。

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

You covered a lot in that answer. So I'm going to switch gears a little bit and maybe talk about capacity investments. I think one of the big drags to gross margin this quarter was this capacity investments. I know there have been some particular areas like Fem Care or -- is a big focus. So if you could talk a little bit maybe about anything Fem Care -- beyond Fem Care where you're putting incremental capacity in, to what degree you expect that to remain a drag to profitability over the next couple of quarters? Or is it a multiple year dynamic? Because that would also speak to some pretty healthy expectations around longer-term volume trends. And I think that's particularly relevant also as we look a little bit beyond the next quarter or 2.

您在該答案中涵蓋了很多內容。所以我要換個話題，也許會談談容量投資。我認為本季度毛利率的一大拖累是產能投資。我知道有一些特定領域，例如 Fem Care 或 - 是一個重點。因此，如果你能談談 Fem Care 的任何事情——除了 Fem Care 之外，你正在增加產能，你預計在接下來的幾個季度裡，這將在多大程度上拖累盈利能力？或者它是一個多年的動態？因為這也說明了對長期銷量趨勢的一些相當健康的預期。而且我認為這也特別重要，因為我們看起來會超出下一季度或第二季度。

Yes, Lauren. We are -- the short-term effect that we are describing here is indeed Fem Care related. We see on the top end of the portfolio, very strong growth. We have seen very strong growth over the past 2 years. And we just need to catch up in terms of overall capacity to demand ratio, both on the top end of our pads business, which is the Radiant or Infinity business. And as you well know, we're still not up to full demand levels on tampons, which we will install -- are in the process of installing new capacity in the back half.

是的，勞倫。我們 - 我們在這裡描述的短期影響確實與 Fem Care 相關。我們在投資組合的高端看到非常強勁的增長。在過去的 2 年裡，我們看到了非常強勁的增長。我們只需要在整體容量需求比方面趕上，無論是在我們的護墊業務的頂端，即 Radiant 或 Infinity 業務。眾所周知，我們仍未達到衛生棉條的全部需求水平，我們將在後半部分安裝新容量。

The investments across businesses to catch up to the very significant increase in terms of business size is underway. So we have capacity investments across most businesses. I wouldn't expect it to be a significant drag on the bottom line. In fact, the growth that we anticipate will more than outweigh the cost of investing in capacity, and that's the plan, obviously. So we have high confidence in our growth potential and that's really what's triggering these capacity investments. Just in the U.S., for example, the last quarter was the first quarter we've reached $40 billion in sales up from $30 billion in sales just 4 years ago. So -- and again, our growth rate continues to look very positive. Volume shares are up and better than the market, our volumes are trending to positive numbers year-over-year. So we need to keep up with that. The net of it is all positive.

為趕上業務規模顯著增長的跨業務投資正在進行中。因此，我們對大多數企業進行了產能投資。我不認為這會嚴重拖累底線。事實上，我們預期的增長將超過容量投資成本，這顯然是計劃。因此，我們對我們的增長潛力充滿信心，而這正是引發這些產能投資的真正原因。例如，僅在美國，上個季度是我們的銷售額從 4 年前的 300 億美元增長到 400 億美元的第一季度。所以 - 再一次，我們的增長率繼續看起來非常積極。成交量份額上升且優於市場，我們的成交量同比呈正數趨勢。所以我們需要跟上這一點。它的淨值都是積極的。

Just one quick clarification there. The $40 billion that Andre is referring to is an annualized or a run rate number. So it was $10 billion in the quarter, which translates to $40 billion of 4, just so people don't get too carried away enough. Lauren, the point that you made and the point Andre made, there's a lot of upside here as we bring this capacity online. We indicated we're not meeting full demand in some of the feminine protection segments. We have opportunity, as you said, across the board. So we're investing pretty significantly. I think as he said and you've said, the bigger impact will be in our ability to accelerate the top line. It should not be a significant bottom line drag.

那裡只是一個快速的澄清。安德烈所指的 400 億美元是年化或運行率數字。所以這個季度是 100 億美元，相當於 4 的 400 億美元，這樣人們就不會太過分了。勞倫，你提出的觀點和安德烈提出的觀點，當我們將這種能力帶到網上時，這裡有很多好處。我們表示我們沒有滿足某些女性保護領域的全部需求。正如您所說，我們有全面的機會。所以我們的投資相當可觀。我認為正如他所說和你所說的那樣，更大的影響將在於我們加速頂線的能力。這不應該是一個重大的底線拖累。

The next question comes from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I had one clarification and one question. The clarification, just I think in response to Dara's question, you cited 3-point hit the volume from basically Russia and shipping behind consumption. So if we add that back, organic sales would have been closer to an 8% versus a 5%. I just want to make sure that, that was the way we should be thinking about it?

我有一個澄清和一個問題。澄清一下，我想在回答 Dara 的問題時，你引用了 3 點主要來自俄羅斯的銷量和消費背後的航運量。因此，如果我們將其加回去，有機銷售額將接近 8% 而不是 5%。我只是想確定，那是我們應該考慮的方式嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Okay. And then as we look into the back half of the year, I guess, just -- if you could comment on 2 things. One is, has anything changed in terms of your view of the macro setup? So just as the operating environment the same, better or worse than what you were expecting? And then also, just would we expect maybe to rebuild some of the inventory, the under shipment that occurred in the second quarter or the first half, would we get any of that back in the second half?

好的。然後當我們回顧今年下半年時，我想，如果你能對兩件事發表評論的話。一是，您對宏觀設置的看法有什麼變化嗎？那麼就像操作環境一樣，比您預期的更好還是更差？然後，我們是否希望重建一些庫存，第二季度或上半年發生的發貨不足，我們會在下半年收回這些庫存嗎？

I would say, the operating environment continues to be difficult, and we expect it to be difficult in the second half. While I think the U.S. is holding up very well, enterprise markets are holding up very well. As John said earlier, recovery in China will be very hard to predict and probably not a straight line. So we expect China to be difficult in the second half as it was in the first half. The European markets will continue to have to work through very high inflation numbers. I think we've seen a little bit of help via a warmer winter season that has helped energy prices. But Europe is not through, I think, inflationary pressures and consumers are still to see many of the consequences in terms of the heating builds as we are entering February and March.

我想說的是，經營環境仍然很困難，我們預計下半年會很困難。雖然我認為美國表現很好，但企業市場表現也很好。正如約翰之前所說，中國的複蘇將很難預測，而且可能不是一條直線。所以我們預計下半年中國會像上半年一樣困難。歐洲市場將繼續承受非常高的通脹數據。我認為我們已經看到溫暖的冬季有助於能源價格上漲。但我認為，隨著我們進入 2 月和 3 月，歐洲還沒有擺脫通貨膨脹壓力，消費者仍將看到在供暖方面的許多後果。

That doesn't change anything we do. I think the best way for us to get through all of this is to continue to invest in the business and to continue to execute with excellence, which the organization is doing and which is driving these good results. Our ability to carefully balance pricing and productivity to offset the inflationary pressures is critical. Within pricing, careful execution and combining pricing with innovation and sufficient investment to drive superiority of our brands is critical. So that's why we want to preserve some level of flexibility to do those investments as we get through the second half.

這不會改變我們所做的任何事情。我認為我們度過這一切的最佳方式是繼續投資於業務並繼續以卓越的方式執行，組織正在這樣做，並且正在推動這些良好的結果。我們謹慎平衡定價和生產力以抵消通脹壓力的能力至關重要。在定價方面，謹慎執行並將定價與創新和足夠的投資相結合以推動我們品牌的優勢至關重要。因此，這就是為什麼我們希望在下半年進行這些投資時保持一定程度的靈活性。

Just a little bit of color on the inventory piece, which has been accurately described a couple of times here. This is a fairly simple dynamic that's occurring. When there is supply volatility and uncertainty, it causes retailers to build higher inventory levels. When there's demand volatility, it does the same. So we've been through a period where inventories have been a little bit higher than normal in some of our retail channels. Supply assurance is increasing, demand volatility is decreasing. So those inventories are understandably being brought down. And so Bryan, I don't expect that there's a significant swing here quarter-to-quarter. I think this is the system normalizing itself.

庫存件上只有一點點顏色，這裡已經準確描述了幾次。這是正在發生的相當簡單的動態。當存在供應波動和不確定性時，會導致零售商建立更高的庫存水平。當存在需求波動時，它也會這樣做。因此，我們經歷了一段時期，在我們的一些零售渠道中，庫存略高於正常水平。供應保證在增加，需求波動在減少。因此，這些庫存正在減少，這是可以理解的。所以布萊恩，我不認為這裡會有一個季度到一個季度的顯著波動。我認為這是系統自身的正常化。

Yes. I think Jon is exactly right. Our on-shelf availability is getting better. We're up now to 95% on-shelf availability, up from 93%. We make sequential progress so as the supply chain is stabilizing. I wouldn't expect immediate return of those days on hand. I think some of it will come back, but it will take a longer period of time.

是的。我認為喬恩是完全正確的。我們的貨架可用性越來越好。我們現在的貨架可用性從 93% 提高到了 95%。我們循序漸進，供應鏈趨於穩定。我不希望那些日子立即回歸。我認為其中一些會回來，但需要更長的時間。

The next question comes from Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Stephen Powers。

I wanted to go back just to the topic of reinvestment for a minute. It was a big topic last quarter, and I think you convinced us then and through your commentary on your Investor Day that you were actually pretty fully invested in your prior outlook enabled by productivity. So as you think about the reinvestment that you're implying incrementally in the new outlook -- I'm just -- is that we should interpret that as elective and opportunistic for kind of greater medium-term returns?

我想花一分鐘回到再投資的話題上。這是上個季度的一個大話題，我認為你當時通過你在投資者日的評論說服了我們，你實際上已經完全投資於生產力所帶來的先前前景。因此，當你考慮你在新前景中逐漸暗示的再投資時——我只是——我們是否應該將其解釋為選擇性和機會主義以獲得更大的中期回報？

Or is it more necessary in the near term given more concerning consumer competitive (inaudible)? Just how you'd frame that reinvestment would be helpful. And then if you could also just -- you talked about strength in the enterprise markets, resilience and is there are any pockets of particular strength you could call out, that would be great. And any areas where you're more watchful, that would also be helpful?

還是考慮到更多關於消費者競爭（聽不清）的問題，在短期內更有必要？您如何構建再投資會有所幫助。然後，如果你也可以——你談到了企業市場的實力、彈性，以及是否有任何你可以大聲疾呼的特殊實力，那就太好了。還有你更注意的任何領域，這也會有所幫助嗎？

I would characterize our current media spending and support spending for our brands as sufficient, which we are paying a lot of attention with each of the businesses. Jon pays a lot of attention with each of the businesses to ensure that is the case. And sufficiency is defined as sufficient reach, sufficient frequency. It's not defined as dollars spent. So again, I want to come back to the fact that, yes, we view the current business as fully funded, sufficiently funded in order to continue growing our brands, their top-of-mind awareness and their equity.

我認為我們目前的媒體支出和對我們品牌的支持支出是足夠的，我們對每項業務都給予了很多關注。喬恩非常關注每家企業，以確保情況如此。充分性被定義為足夠的覆蓋面、足夠的頻率。它沒有定義為花費的美元。所以，我想再次回到這個事實，是的，我們認為當前的業務資金充足，資金充足，以便繼續發展我們的品牌、他們的首要意識和他們的資產。

When we reinvest, we reinvest because there is a positive return in the short term and we can further strengthen our brands or specific innovation that is out there. In the most recent quarter, for example, we've increased quarter-over-quarter, our total ad spend by $140 million. And that is a function of innovation timing. It's also a function of merchandising support and core timing advertising with that retailer support. So we -- you see us adhere to that principle of fully supporting our brands. If there are opportunities to create short-term ROI, we will continue to double down.

當我們再投資時，我們再投資是因為短期內有正回報，我們可以進一步加強我們的品牌或現有的特定創新。例如，在最近一個季度，我們的廣告總支出環比增加了 1.4 億美元。這是創新時機的作用。它也是商品銷售支持和核心時間廣告與零售商支持的功能。所以我們 - 你看到我們堅持完全支持我們品牌的原則。如果有機會創造短期投資回報率，我們將繼續加倍下注。

And one other opportunity that we've talked about a little bit this morning, as additional supply comes online, there are often opportunities to increase support for the business to take advantage of that additional capacity. So we'll be looking for those, as Andre said, positive ROI opportunities to drive the business. You asked about enterprise markets. When you get down to a country level, of course, it's very variable. But 14% growth on the top line, all 3 regions growing at over 10%. So the strength is pretty broad there.

我們今天早上談到的另一個機會是，隨著額外的供應上線，通常有機會增加對企業的支持，以利用額外的產能。因此，正如安德烈所說，我們將尋找那些積極的投資回報率機會來推動業務發展。你問的是企業市場。當然，當你深入到國家層面時，它是非常多變的。但是收入增長了 14%，所有 3 個地區的增長都超過了 10%。所以那裡的實力相當廣泛。

Yes. And if you look at L.A., 21% growth, for example, so that will be the top end of the growth and fairly consistent here. So enterprise markets continue to deliver very strong results. Last point, maybe on the media investment, the synergies we're able to create are real and not insignificant. So if you look at Baby Care, for example, that business has grown 10% last year. They have completely shifted the way they run their media. They've increased reach by 20%, increased top-of-mind awareness by 26%. All of that while they saved 15% of their media spend. So the equation here really allows for sufficiency at lower cost.

是的。如果你看看洛杉磯，例如 21% 的增長，那麼這將是增長的頂端，並且在這里相當穩定。因此，企業市場繼續提供非常強勁的結果。最後一點，也許在媒體投資方面，我們能夠創造的協同效應是真實的，而不是微不足道的。因此，如果你看看嬰兒護理，例如，該業務去年增長了 10%。他們已經完全改變了他們經營媒體的方式。他們將覆蓋面擴大了 20%，將最重要的認知度提高了 26%。所有這些同時他們節省了 15% 的媒體支出。所以這裡的等式確實允許以較低的成本獲得足夠的資源。

And that, again, just for clarity, is the U.S. dynamic that Andre has just described, the 10% growth. I'll leave it there.

再次，為了清楚起見，這就是安德烈剛剛描述的美國動態，即 10% 的增長。我會把它留在那裡。

The next question comes from Olivia Tong of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Olivia Tong。

Great. If memory serves me right, much of the pricing actions from last year will start to lap in the March quarter. So in your view, is the December quarter the one that has the biggest spread between price and volume? And could you talk about where your elasticity stand relative to historical view? And if -- and how price and volume tracked at the end of the quarter versus the minus 6% versus plus 10 average for the quarter.

偉大的。如果我沒記錯的話，去年的大部分定價行動將在 3 月季度開始生效。那麼在您看來，12 月季度是價格和數量之間價差最大的那個季度嗎？你能談談你的彈性相對於歷史觀點的立場嗎？如果 - 以及本季度末的價格和交易量如何與本季度的負 6% 和正 10% 進行對比。

Olivia, the -- let me start with elasticities. The overall view has not changed. We continue to see more favorable elasticities than we would have expected on historical data pretty much everywhere, but Europe focused markets. And you can see with 10% pricing flowing through and when you strip out the nonconsumption-related volume effect, a 3% reduction in volume, that is a very benign elasticity that we're seeing in aggregate and allows us to hold volume share and value share as the pricing flows through. So we feel good about, again, the strategy, doing what we wanted to do and the execution being very diligent in each of the markets.

奧利維亞，讓我從彈性開始。總體觀點沒有改變。我們繼續看到幾乎所有地方的歷史數據都比我們預期的更有利的彈性，但以歐洲為中心的市場。你可以看到 10% 的定價流過，當你剔除非消費相關的數量效應時，數量減少 3%，這是我們在總體上看到的非常良性的彈性，使我們能夠持有數量份額和隨著定價的流逝，價值份額。因此，我們再次對戰略、做我們想做的事情以及在每個市場的執行都非常勤奮感到滿意。

Europe is the one place where elasticities have returned to what we would have expected more on historical data, and that is driven by the increased pressure on the consumer. We're also seeing a little bit of price lag here. So private label, for example, is pricing slower in Europe, and that increases temporarily the price gap versus private label. Nothing we didn't plan on, but that explains part of the higher elasticities. In terms of peak pricing, you're right, many of the large price increases get left this fiscal year. But that doesn't mean that we're not putting more pricing in the market. So for example, we have a number of price increases that go into effect in February. So there's 2 components here. One we're lapping price increases executed last year, but we're also still passing through some of the cost pressures via incremental pricing around the world.

歐洲是彈性已恢復到我們對歷史數據的更多預期的地方，這是由消費者壓力增加所驅動的。我們在這裡也看到了一點價格滯後。因此，例如，自有品牌在歐洲的定價速度較慢，這暫時增加了與自有品牌的價格差距。沒有什麼是我們沒有計劃的，但這部分解釋了更高的彈性。就峰值定價而言，你是對的，本財年許多價格大幅上漲。但這並不意味著我們不會在市場上定價。因此，例如，我們有一些價格上漲將於 2 月生效。所以這裡有 2 個組件。一個是我們正在考慮去年執行的價格上漲，但我們仍在通過全球範圍內的增量定價來應對一些成本壓力。

The next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Chris Carey。

I just wanted to come back to Steve's question on investment priorities. If I take your fiscal year outlook, you're clearly implying better margins in the back half of the year. But if I just walk through a gross margin bridge of what perhaps makes sense, it does seem to imply you'll need to see leverage on the SG&A line in the back half of the year to drive margin expansion, potentially notable SG&A leverage despite sales decelerating. So again, if you could just help me frame overall SG&A and whether you think you'll be ending the year with appropriate levels of spending? Or if you expect investments to maybe grow progressively over the next 12 to 18 months, for example, or your capacity continues to improve, as Jon just said?

我只想回到史蒂夫關於投資優先事項的問題。如果我看一下你的財年展望，你顯然暗示下半年利潤率會更高。但是，如果我只是走過一個可能有意義的毛利率橋樑，這似乎確實意味著你需要在下半年看到 SG&A 線的槓桿作用以推動利潤率擴張，儘管有銷售，但 SG&A 槓桿率可能顯著減速。再說一遍，您是否可以幫我構建總體 SG&A，以及您是否認為您將以適當的支出水平結束今年？或者，如果您預計投資可能會在未來 12 到 18 個月內逐步增長，或者您的能力會繼續提高，就像喬恩剛才說的那樣？

I wouldn't expect a structural shift in SG&A spend. I think what you're seeing in the run rate is about what we expect to need in order to be sufficiently funded and the gross margin -- and most of the margin expansion will come from gross margin expansion. As we ramp up productivity, pricing continues to flow through and that builds gross margin period-over-period. So that will be the bigger contributor. And we're not counting on any major reductions in SG&A beyond what productivity allows us to deliver, again, at current sufficiency levels, and we are very carefully looking at what can we reinvest actually and still deliver within the range that we want to deliver.

我預計 SG&A 支出不會發生結構性轉變。我認為你在運行率中看到的是我們期望獲得足夠資金和毛利率所需的東西——大部分利潤率的增長將來自毛利率的增長。隨著我們提高生產力，定價繼續流動，並且逐年增加毛利率。所以這將是更大的貢獻者。而且我們不指望 SG&A 的任何重大減少超出生產力允許我們再次交付的能力，在當前的充足水平上，我們非常仔細地研究我們可以實際再投資什麼，並且仍然在我們想要交付的範圍內交付.

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Your commentary, I guess, just now on taking further pricing, it's obviously appropriate given we have a series of costs that are still coming through. But can you maybe just talk a little bit about the response from retailers and is that changing in any way? Not that long ago it seemed across all of CPG, it was maybe easier to get some pricing through. I'm just curious if that's changing in any way?

我想，你的評論只是關於進一步定價，鑑於我們仍有一系列成本仍在發生，這顯然是合適的。但是你能不能談談零售商的反應，這種情況有什麼變化嗎？就在不久前，它似乎遍及所有 CPG，可能更容易通過一些定價。我只是好奇這是否有任何改變？

Yes, Kaumil. The environment continues to be constructive. We don't see much change in retailer conversations. It's focused on how do we best play the role that we need to play as a category leader in many of the markets by combining pricing with innovation, executing pricing in a way that consumers can appropriately choose from different price points, different value tiers, and how that plays out at retail shelf, both virtual and physical shelves in the best possible way, so we can help them grow their category, grow foot traffic, et cetera. Those are really the majority of the conversations.

是的，考米爾。環境繼續具有建設性。我們沒有看到零售商對話有太大變化。它的重點是我們如何通過將定價與創新相結合，以消費者可以從不同價格點、不同價值層次和這如何以最佳方式在零售貨架上發揮作用，包括虛擬貨架和實體貨架，因此我們可以幫助他們擴大品類，增加客流量等。這些確實是大多數對話。

I would characterize this quarter or next quarter as any different than the previous quarters, where really it's about how do we do this, when is the best time to execute, it's not -- should we or must we take pricing. I think everybody still understands that we are recovering costs after we recover as much as we can with productivity.

我認為本季度或下一季度與前幾個季度有任何不同，真正的問題是我們如何做到這一點，什麼時候是執行的最佳時間，而不是——我們應該或必須定價。我想每個人仍然明白，在我們盡可能多地恢復生產率之後，我們正在收回成本。

And as Andre said, the conversation much more constructive, we're all concerned when we focus on improving consumer value holistically defined. And that's exactly what Andre was talking about in terms of the combination of innovation and pricing. And when that's the conversation, it takes on a very different nature than a more transactional discussion. Also don't forget, our retail partners are the owners of the private label brands that we compete against. They're facing many of the same dynamics in terms of their cost inputs that we are. So just to reconfirm what Andre said, it's been a generally constructive discussion. I don't see anything in my interactions with our retail partners that causes an inflection in that discussion in the near term.

正如安德烈所說，談話更具建設性，當我們專注於提高整體定義的消費者價值時，我們都很關心。這正是安德烈所說的創新與定價相結合的內容。當那是對話時，它與更具交易性的討論具有截然不同的性質。也不要忘記，我們的零售合作夥伴是我們與之競爭的自有品牌的所有者。他們在成本投入方面面臨著許多與我們相同的動態。因此，為了再次確認 Andre 所說的話，這是一次總體上具有建設性的討論。在我與我們的零售合作夥伴的互動中，我沒有看到任何導致近期討論發生變化的事情。

The next question comes from Robert Ottenstein of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

Just first, a quick follow-up and then my main question. So one, in terms of follow-up, is the volume headwind in this quarter from Russia in sort of the one-offs? Is that just a quarter issue? Or is that going to linger on to the following quarters? And then my primary focus is the market share data that you gave us in terms of the U.S., I think, was very impressive, particularly given some of the lingering supply issues that are going to be resolved soon. So can we expect perhaps accelerating improvement in market share as the year goes and the supply comes on and maybe give us a little bit more sense of what the drivers were for the encouraging market share momentum in the U.S.?

首先，快速跟進，然後是我的主要問題。那麼，就後續行動而言，本季度來自俄羅斯的交易量逆風是一次性的嗎？這只是四分之一的問題嗎？還是會持續到接下來的幾個季度？然後我的主要關注點是你提供給我們的美國市場份額數據，我認為這非常令人印象深刻，特別是考慮到一些揮之不去的供應問題將很快得到解決。那麼，隨著時間的推移和供應的增加，我們是否可以預期市場份額可能會加速改善，並可能讓我們更多地了解美國令人鼓舞的市場份額勢頭的驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. Robert, on the volume side, I think the Russia effect will be with us for one more quarter before we annualize. And on the inventory side, as we said before, we believe this was a onetime adjustment. I wouldn't expect this to come back immediately. I wouldn't expect a significant further reduction in inventory. When we look at the U.S., for example, where we have good data in terms of retailer days on hand, we believe we are at pre-COVID levels, which is about the level that we've proven to operate reliably with our retail partners.

是的。羅伯特，在數量方面，我認為俄羅斯效應將在我們年化之前再持續一個季度。在庫存方面，正如我們之前所說，我們認為這是一次性調整。我不希望這會立即回來。我預計庫存不會進一步大幅減少。例如，當我們看看美國時，我們在手頭的零售商天數方面有很好的數據，我們相信我們處於 COVID 之前的水平，這與我們已經證明可以與我們的零售合作夥伴可靠運營的水平差不多.

So I would expect that to be a one-timer with potentially some help coming in back over the next few quarters. The volume share dynamic in the U.S. is driven largely by Fabric Care coming back into supply. We have talked in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year and also in the first quarter of this fiscal year, that we had some supply constraints on our Fabric Care business that we had to address. We also reinstated merchandising support in the U.S. We've reinstated media support and that is playing out in volume share accelerating on the Fabric Care business.

因此，我預計這將是一次性的，在接下來的幾個季度中可能會得到一些幫助。美國的銷量份額動態主要是由 Fabric Care 恢復供應推動的。我們在上一財年第四季度和本財年第一季度都談到，我們必須解決織物護理業務的一些供應限制問題。我們還恢復了在美國的銷售支持。我們恢復了媒體支持，這在織物護理業務的銷量份額加速中發揮了作用。

The other dynamic is Family Care sequentially improving from a volume share standpoint where we have seen a very high base when private label was in less supply and didn't have merchandising in the July to December period of last calendar year. That is being annualized. So those 2 will continue, hopefully, to be a tailwind to our share position in the U.S. But as Jon said, it's hard to predict and look around the corner here, there are many, many variables that we don't control, but those 2 businesses explain the strength and hopefully, should have more upside going forward.

另一個動態是家庭護理從數量份額的角度來看連續改善，當自有品牌供應較少並且在上個日曆年的 7 月至 12 月期間沒有商品時，我們看到基數非常高。這是按年計算的。因此，希望這兩個因素將繼續成為我們在美國的股票地位的順風。但正如喬恩所說，很難預測並看看這裡的拐角處，有很多很多我們無法控制的變量，但那些2 家企業說明了實力，希望未來會有更多的上漲空間。

And just one attempt at changing maybe a little bit some of the semantics from supply issue to supply opportunity. Our supply organization has done a terrific job. If you look at the last 15 quarters or so, our organic sales -- the amount of organic sales end of period to beginning of the period is up 80%, 90%, which is a really good thing. And they've done a tremendous job of trying to keep pace with that. And as we talked about, there's just additional upside to fully meet and satisfy that demand.

只是一次嘗試改變供應問題到供應機會的一些語義。我們的供應組織做得非常出色。如果你看看過去 15 個左右的季度，我們的有機銷售額——期末到期初的有機銷售額增長了 80%、90%，這真是一件好事。他們在努力跟上這一步伐方面做得非常出色。正如我們所說，完全滿足和滿足這一需求還有額外的好處。

The next question comes from Peter Grom of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. I hope you're doing well. So I wanted to ask about the change in the commodity outlook, which for the first time in quite some time, the outlook has actually moved lower sequentially, understanding that there's a lot of moving pieces, but can you just help us understand what's driving that? Is it broad-based? Or are there particular inputs where you're starting to see inflation moderate more substantially?

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我希望你過得很好。所以我想問一下大宗商品前景的變化，這是很長一段時間以來的第一次，前景實際上連續走低，了解有很多變動因素，但你能幫我們了解是什麼推動了這一點嗎？基礎廣泛嗎？或者是否存在您開始看到通貨膨脹更大幅度放緩的特定輸入？

It really varies period over period, month over month. We've seen pulp was holding relatively steady, has come down a little bit now on different grades. Propylene, polyethylene has come down a little bit. But it's really broad based and it's changing month over month, week over week. In general, what we're seeing is, as you would have known, the supply situation is easing a little bit, and that's obviously helping the market dynamic, both on commodities as well as on transportation and warehousing.

它真的隨著時間的推移、每月的變化而變化。我們已經看到紙漿保持相對穩定，現在在不同等級上有所下降。丙烯、聚乙烯有所回落。但它的基礎非常廣泛，而且每個月、每週都在變化。總的來說，我們所看到的是，正如您所知，供應情況有所緩和，這顯然有助於市場動態，無論是商品還是運輸和倉儲。

There's no guarantee that, that will continue. We don't know what China reopening will do to the commodity market. That's a significant variable that nobody really understands at this point, I would argue. So we're watching this closely, and we continue to forecast based on what we know today, which is spot prices. I think the other dynamic we can't forget is that our suppliers are still working through their input cost inflation, their labor inflation, their energy cost inflation. So there are 2 opposing forces here. One is the desire of our suppliers as contracts roll over to pass that through to us. And the other one is input costs easing in the short term. So we have to take both into account when we think about our ability to pass through cost helps.

不能保證這種情況會繼續下去。我們不知道中國重新開放會對商品市場產生什麼影響。這是一個重要的變量，目前還沒有人真正理解，我認為。所以我們正在密切關注這一點，我們將繼續根據我們今天所知道的現貨價格進行預測。我認為我們不能忘記的另一個動態是我們的供應商仍在努力應對他們的投入成本通脹、勞動力成本通脹和能源成本通脹。所以這裡有兩個對立的力量。一個是我們的供應商希望隨著合同的延期將其傳遞給我們。另一個是短期內投入成本下降。因此，當我們考慮通過成本幫助轉嫁的能力時，我們必須將兩者都考慮在內。

The next question comes from Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

I have a clarification and a question. Andrea, in your response about the destocking that should be over in the next quarter, is that also applicable for China? And how are you seeing China consumption rebounding as you exit the Board and obviously, with the reopening? And if I can squeeze a real question, can you comment on how you're preparing your portfolio in Europe for potential recession? As you called out, things may, the bills -- energy bills may be kicking up now as we enter your third quarter fiscal?

我有一個澄清和一個問題。 Andrea，在你關於下個季度應該結束的去庫存的回應中，這是否也適用於中國？當您退出董事會時，您如何看待中國消費反彈，顯然，隨著重新開放？如果我能提出一個真正的問題，你能評論一下你如何為潛在的經濟衰退準備你在歐洲的投資組合嗎？正如您所說的那樣，隨著我們進入您的第三季度財政年度，賬單 - 能源賬單現在可能會增加嗎？

Andrea, yes, the China destocking, I think, will largely depend on the China reopening and that's very hard to predict. I think if consumer mobility returns to normal levels quickly, that will be a tailwind for every retailer with real estate on the ground. And that's really the major issue that offline retail is facing. So if traffic returns to normal levels, that will be a big help, and obviously, no further destocking required. I'll leave it at that because I have no good way of knowing anybody else.

Andrea，是的，我認為中國的去庫存將在很大程度上取決於中國的重新開放，這很難預測。我認為，如果消費者的流動性迅速恢復到正常水平，那將對每一家在當地擁有房地產的零售商來說都是有利的。這確實是線下零售面臨的主要問題。因此，如果流量恢復到正常水平，那將是一個很大的幫助，而且顯然不需要進一步去庫存。我會把它留在那兒，因為我沒有很好的方式了解其他人。

We expect consumption in China to reaccelerate to mid-single digits. Over what period is hard to predict. But in the midterm, that's where we see our China market and it continues to be an important investment market for us. We have a very capable organization on the ground, and they are spending their days and nights to get ready for that. Fine-tune our innovation, ensure we have the best possible marketing programs, both digitally and with our retail partners on the ground. I think on the European portfolio, we have prepared, like everywhere else, our portfolio for a recession.

我們預計中國的消費將重新加速至中個位數。在什麼時期很難預測。但從中期來看，這就是我們看到中國市場的地方，它仍然是我們重要的投資市場。我們在實地有一個非常有能力的組織，他們正在日以繼夜地為此做好準備。微調我們的創新，確保我們擁有最好的營銷計劃，包括數字營銷計劃和我們的零售合作夥伴。我認為在歐洲投資組合方面，我們和其他地方一樣，已經為經濟衰退做好了準備。

And it comes back to the basic strategies on the categories we play in. We are in nondiscretionary categories to a large degree that people won't deselect easily. They continue to wash their laundry, they continue to wash their hair. So that's number one for recession proving our business model. Step number 2 is investment in irresistible superiority. When consumers see the benefit our brands can deliver, the value will be clear to them and our ability to communicate that value clearly is critical, and that's why we continue to invest in both the performance as well as the communication.

這又回到了我們所玩類別的基本策略。我們在很大程度上處於非自由裁量類別，人們不會輕易取消選擇。他們繼續洗衣服，繼續洗頭。所以這是證明我們商業模式的經濟衰退的第一位。第二步是投資不可抗拒的優勢。當消費者看到我們的品牌可以帶來的好處時，他們就會清楚價值，而我們清楚地傳達該價值的能力至關重要，這就是我們繼續投資於性能和溝通的原因。

And then the last part is just accessibility of the portfolio, both in terms of brand tiering, so having premium brands but also value brands and price points across different channels, be that discounters or other retailers. So I think the portfolio proofing has been done, and I think it's showing results in a very difficult environment that we think speak to the strength of the strategy.

然後最後一部分只是產品組合的可訪問性，無論是在品牌分層方面，因此擁有優質品牌，但也重視不同渠道的品牌和價格點，無論是折扣店還是其他零售商。所以我認為投資組合驗證已經完成，我認為它在我們認為說明戰略實力的非常困難的環境中顯示出結果。

The next question comes from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

We've covered a lot of ground. I want to try to connect the dots here on the 8% organic sales growth if we exclude the items that Andre called out, with comments in the press release around market contraction. So in the release, you mentioned market contractions in Hair Care, Grooming, Fabric Care, Baby Care, Family Care, across much of the portfolio. But as Andre talked about, the org sales in the quarter was closer to 8%. And if we look at the comp, it was actually an acceleration on a 2-year stack basis.

我們已經涵蓋了很多方面。如果我們排除安德烈提到的項目，我想嘗試將這裡的點與 8% 的有機銷售增長聯繫起來，並在新聞稿中圍繞市場收縮發表評論。因此，在新聞稿中，您提到了大部分產品組合中護髮、美容、織物護理、嬰兒護理、家庭護理的市場收縮。但正如安德烈所說，本季度的組織銷售額接近 8%。如果我們看一下 comp，它實際上是 2 年堆棧基礎上的加速。

So what I really want to do is just -- I know we've covered a lot of ground on this call, just to make sure I'm kind of clear on how you're seeing category growth, how you're seeing elasticities and consumer behavior coming out of the quarter. Because it seems to me that the quarter is actually on a like-for-like basis, possibly even better than the Street had modeled. And setting aside China, you sound pretty constructive on demand dynamics. You sound pretty good on elasticity sort of relatively unchanged. And I just want to make sure that's the messaging for investors.

所以我真正想做的只是——我知道我們在這次電話會議上討論了很多內容，只是為了確保我清楚你是如何看待品類增長的，你是如何看待彈性的以及本季度出現的消費者行為。因為在我看來，該季度實際上是在類似的基礎上，甚至可能比華爾街模擬的更好。撇開中國不談，你的按需動態聽起來很有建設性。你的彈性聽起來相當不錯，但相對沒有變化。我只是想確保這是給投資者的信息。

Yes. And I would characterize, obviously, the Russia element will be with us, and that's real. I think the market growth has been around 5% to 6% with a negative volume component and a very positive price component. I would expect that in the midterm to moderate to 3% to 4% overall growth and still have a negative volume component with offset by strong pricing that will continue to flow through the market. If you look at overall market size over the past 3 months, that has been the case, and that's where we expect it to be going forward. And that's pretty much in line with how we model the balance of the balance of the fiscal year. Our job here is to be ahead of that. And that's why we're investing, that why we're continuing to double down on priority investments everywhere. Jon, I don't know if you have anything to add?

是的。我想說的是，顯然，俄羅斯元素將與我們同在，這是真實的。我認為市場增長一直在 5% 到 6% 左右，銷量為負，價格為正。我預計在中期整體增長將放緩至 3% 至 4%，並且仍然有負數量部分，但會被繼續流經市場的強勁定價所抵消。如果你看看過去 3 個月的整體市場規模，情況就是如此，這就是我們預計未來的發展方向。這與我們為財政年度餘額建模的方式非常一致。我們在這裡的工作是領先於此。這就是我們進行投資的原因，這也是我們繼續在各地加倍優先投資的原因。喬恩，我不知道你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. It's a repeat, but it's worth repeating. It's a bit of a raindrop on the fray, Kevin. But I just want to highlight so that we don't get ahead of ourselves, how uncertain, for example, China is. Andre said it several times, we don't have visibility. We have, within our own operations, offices, innovation centers, plants, our current estimate of the infection rate is up to 80%.

是的。這是重複，但值得重複。凱文，這有點像爭吵中的雨滴。但我只是想強調，這樣我們就不會操之過急，例如，中國的不確定性有多大。安德烈說過好幾次，我們沒有能見度。在我們自己的運營、辦公室、創新中心、工廠內，我們目前估計感染率高達 80%。

And we're sitting here in the week before Chinese New Year when all the traveling occurs. At the same time, we have a government and a populist who desperately wants things to get better. It's just very hard to say, hey, we should assume that as we go forward, China comes back like a tire. Certainly, we all hope that's true. I hope for China, that's true. But just you really need to understand how uncertain things are.

我們在農曆新年前一周坐在這裡，那時所有的旅行都發生了。與此同時，我們有一個政府和一個迫切希望事情變得更好的民粹主義者。很難說，嘿，我們應該假設隨著我們前進，中國像輪胎一樣回來了。當然，我們都希望這是真的。我希望中國，這是真的。但是，您確實需要了解事物的不確定性。

The next question comes from Mark Astrachan of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Astrachan。

I wanted to move from that raindrop question to a bit more funny question and just ask about whether the resilience of the U.S. consumer has surprised you all sort of what's embedded in guidance from here? I know what you said, Andre, about the category, but that was, I think, on a global basis. So how do you generally think about U.S. trends from here? And within the portfolio, have there been any surprises relative to historical expectations, meaning things that have performed better than you would have expected? And kind of what are you watching from here from a portfolio standpoint, all within the context of the U.S. business?

我想從那個雨滴問題轉移到一個更有趣的問題，只是問一下美國消費者的彈性是否讓你感到驚訝，這裡的指導中包含的所有內容？我知道你說的，安德烈，關於這個類別，但我認為那是在全球範圍內。那麼，您一般如何看待美國的趨勢？在投資組合中，是否存在與歷史預期相關的意外情況，即表現好於您預期的事情？從投資組合的角度來看，在美國企業的背景下，你從這裡看到了什麼？

Mark, I wouldn't expect the U.S. to fundamentally change. If you look back over the past 6 months, private label shares in the U.S. have been relatively steady. We've seen 20 to 30 basis points of increase in private label share, which is a metric we're watching closely. But if you look at sequential share, absolute shares of private label, it continues to hover around 16%, past 3, 6 and even 12 months. So there hasn't been a significant shift in consumer behavior in terms of trade down.

馬克，我不認為美國會發生根本性的改變。如果回顧過去 6 個月，美國的自有品牌股票一直相對穩定。我們已經看到自有品牌份額增加了 20 到 30 個基點，這是我們正在密切關注的指標。但如果你看連續份額，自有品牌的絕對份額，它繼續徘徊在 16% 左右，過去 3、6 甚至 12 個月。因此，就降價交易而言，消費者行為並未發生重大轉變。

I think the way that our pricing was executed with great support in innovation and great support in terms of marketing spend has helped. Our strategy isn't shifting. I don't see the market shifting significantly. All of that with a caveat that who knows what the next 6 months are going to bring. But if past behavior over the last 6 months, 9 months is any indication, I think the consumer is relatively steady in the U.S., which gives us great confidence. It's our biggest market. We do well, expanding volume share, as I said, and hopefully have a bit more upside here as Family Care and Fabric Care continue to gain momentum.

我認為我們在創新方面的大力支持和營銷支出方面的大力支持下執行定價的方式有所幫助。我們的戰略沒有改變。我沒有看到市場發生重大變化。所有這一切都有一個警告，誰知道接下來的 6 個月會發生什麼。但如果過去 6 個月、9 個月的行為有任何跡象，我認為美國的消費者相對穩定，這給了我們很大的信心。這是我們最大的市場。正如我所說，我們做得很好，擴大了銷量份額，並且隨著家庭護理和織物護理繼續獲得動力，希望在這裡有更多的上升空間。

And this continues to be a market, the U.S. market that is very responsive in a positive way to innovation that improves performance, both for the product and the package. And we have many examples, Dawn Power Wash as an example, introduced at a premium price. The brand has grown at 50% since that introduction and Dawn has driven 90% of category growth in that situation. Dawn Power Wash, again, a premium priced item that was introduced largely during difficult economic times as a stand-alone brand would be the third largest brand of the category. So I just used that as an example for the continued positive responsiveness of U.S. consumers to innovation, and we've got a lot of innovation coming.

這仍然是一個市場，美國市場以積極的方式對提高產品和包裝性能的創新做出非常積極的反應。我們有很多例子，以高價推出的 Dawn Power Wash 為例。自推出以來，該品牌增長了 50%，而 Dawn 在這種情況下推動了 90% 的品類增長。 Dawn Power Wash 同樣是一款高價產品，主要是在經濟困難時期作為獨立品牌推出的，它將成為該類別的第三大品牌。所以我只是以此為例，說明美國消費者對創新的持續積極反應，我們已經有了很多創新。

The next question comes from Callum Elliott of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Callum Elliott。

Great. I wanted to come back, please, to the brand spend dynamic. And Andre, I think the example you gave to Baby Care is quite powerful. If you could increase so meaningfully while simultaneously cutting dollar spend, I guess that's probably driven by digital and better targeting there versus traditional media. My question is, do you think these benefits are sustainable or over the longer term, are we not likely to see some of these digital ROIs come back down as digital ad pricing goes up and some of your competitors start to catch up with new capabilities there?

偉大的。我想回來，拜託，品牌消費動態。安德烈，我認為你給嬰兒護理的例子非常有力。如果你能在削減美元支出的同時實現如此有意義的增長，我想這可能是由數字驅動的，並且比傳統媒體更好地瞄準那裡。我的問題是，您認為這些好處是可持續的還是從長遠來看，隨著數字廣告定價的上漲以及您的一些競爭對手開始追趕那裡的新功能，我們是否不太可能看到其中一些數字投資回報率回落？

I believe -- we believe that we're just at the beginning actually of our productivity curve. And it's driven by 2 things. I think Baby Care was one of the -- U.S. Baby Care one of the more aggressive ones and one of the more obvious ones. When you think about the consumer target, it's very narrow, right? You're looking for households with babies in diapering age. So going from mass TV where you have a lot of waste to hitting that target, which is about 3% to 4% of the population, provided the most obvious opportunity to drive synergies here.

我相信 - 我們相信我們實際上才剛剛開始我們的生產力曲線。它由兩件事驅動。我認為 Baby Care 是其中之一——美國 Baby Care 是更具侵略性的產品之一，也是更明顯的產品之一。當您考慮消費者目標時，它非常狹窄，對嗎？您正在尋找嬰兒處於換尿布年齡的家庭。因此，從大量浪費的大眾電視到達到該目標（約佔人口的 3% 至 4%），這為推動協同效應提供了最明顯的機會。

But we've learned also in other businesses, the opposite works. When you think about Fabric Care, everybody is doing laundry. So you've got a very wide target that you need to reach. And the Fabric Care team in the U.S. has brought their media planning and buying in-house, developing proprietary algorithms to better place ads during the TV programming, for example. And that in and of itself has allowed $65 million of savings in 1 year, while increasing frequency.

但我們在其他行業也了解到，情況恰恰相反。當您想到織物護理時，每個人都在洗衣服。所以你有一個非常廣泛的目標，你需要達到。例如，美國的 Fabric Care 團隊將他們的媒體規劃和購買納入內部，開發專有算法以在電視節目中更好地投放廣告。這本身就在一年內節省了 6500 萬美元，同時增加了頻率。

So both models work and both models are still not everywhere. So we've got 2 examples in the U.S. There are many categories in the U.S. that are still building their own approach to drive these synergies and there's the whole world outside of the U.S., which is still building on the capabilities that we are developing. So we see this as an area of continued investment in terms of our own capabilities with a great ability to drive productivity for years to come.

所以這兩種模型都有效，而且兩種模型都還不是無處不在。所以我們在美國有兩個例子。美國有許多類別仍在建立自己的方法來推動這些協同作用，而且美國以外的整個世界仍在建立我們正在開發的能力。因此，我們將此視為我們自身能力方面的持續投資領域，在未來幾年內具有推動生產力的強大能力。

The next question comes from Chris Pitcher of Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Chris Pitcher。

Apologies for carrying on the inventories question. But Jon, you mentioned you were looking at a normalization. But in the Investor Day, you showed obviously a significant improvement in your supply chain efficiency. Do you think you're in the position over the next couple of years where U.S. retailers could operate at even lower inventories and improving your relationship with them? Is working capital part of the conversation that you have with them in sort of helping form share of shelf?

為進行庫存問題而道歉。但是喬恩，你提到你正在考慮標準化。但是在投資者日，你們明顯地展示了供應鏈效率的顯著提高。您是否認為在接下來的幾年中，美國零售商可以以更低的庫存運營並改善您與他們的關係？營運資金是否是您與他們進行的對話的一部分，以幫助形成貨架份額？

And then thank you for the color on the international business. Could you share with how fast your Indian business grew in the period because it looks like the India consumer there is recovering and whether you're seeing a sustained double-digit recovery there as well?

然後感謝您對國際業務的顏色。您能否分享您的印度業務在此期間的增長速度，因為那裡的印度消費者看起來正在復蘇，您是否也看到了持續的兩位數復甦？

Thanks for the question. I do think that there's significant opportunity for the entire supply system to operate at lower levels of inventory. And one of the enablers there in addition to supply dependability is increasingly looking at the supply chain across -- we historically looked at our supply chain and our customer supply chain as we're beginning to have conversations about -- this was one supply chain, would we do things differently? And the answer is almost yes. And the opportunities that are resident within that discussion are significant. So I do think we will continue to have that conversation and try to make progress in a way that benefits both ourselves and our retail partners and ultimately the consumer with higher on-shelf availability. And then go ahead, Andre, you want to talk about India?

謝謝你的問題。我確實認為整個供應系統有很大的機會在較低的庫存水平下運作。除了供應可靠性之外，推動因素之一是越來越多地關注整個供應鏈——我們過去一直關注我們的供應鍊和我們的客戶供應鏈，因為我們開始討論——這是一個供應鏈，我們會做不同的事情嗎？答案幾乎是肯定的。該討論中存在的機會非常重要。因此，我確實認為我們將繼續進行這種對話，並努力以一種對我們自己和我們的零售合作夥伴都有利的方式取得進展，並最終使消費者獲得更高的貨架可用性。然後繼續，安德烈，你想談談印度嗎？

Yes, sure. The India business continues to accelerate. We saw Q1 growing 12% organic sales, Q2 13%. And India is a good example of those capabilities that we were just talking about actually rolling out and being very effective. So the digital infrastructure we've been able -- the team has been able to create in India is quite impressive and that's contributing to our ability to drive disproportionate growth there, both from a sales capability standpoint and from a media capability standpoint.

是的，當然。印度業務繼續加速發展。我們看到第一季度有機銷售額增長 12%，第二季度增長 13%。印度就是一個很好的例子，說明我們剛剛談到的那些能力實際上已經推出並且非常有效。因此，我們已經能夠 - 團隊已經能夠在印度創建的數字基礎設施非常令人印象深刻，這有助於我們推動那裡不成比例的增長，無論是從銷售能力的角度還是從媒體能力的角度來看。

The next question comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congrats on that sales milestone and the market share progression this quarter. I've got -- I'm going to (inaudible) and like many, jam a few questions into one. So first, what geographies are you taking the majority of the incremental pricing in? Second, you're signaling more reinvestment on the com as supply improves, what shape do you expect it to take, i.e., product advertising promo, et cetera? And lastly, I don't know if I should read much into this, but you've made substantially more references to volume share rather than value share this quarter. Does this reflect a shift in prioritization and focus for you?

祝賀本季度的銷售里程碑和市場份額的增長。我已經 - 我打算（聽不清）並且像許多人一樣，將幾個問題合併為一個問題。那麼首先，您將在哪些地區進行大部分增量定價？其次，隨著供應的改善，您表示將對 com 進行更多的再投資，您希望它採取什麼形式，即產品廣告促銷等？最後，我不知道我是否應該深入了解這一點，但本季度你更多地提到了數量份額而不是價值份額。這是否反映了您的優先次序和重點的轉變？

Thanks, Jason. On the geographies, I would not see any disproportionate tilt towards one or the other. If you look at the cost structure, the implications, they are pretty similar across the different regions. Timing might shift. Category is, obviously, shifting.

謝謝，傑森。在地理上，我不會看到任何不成比例的傾向。如果你看一下成本結構和影響，它們在不同地區非常相似。時機可能會改變。顯然，類別正在發生變化。

Yes. There's one exception to that, agree totally as it relates to pricing related to commodities. But there are some markets, of course, where currencies are devaluating massively.

是的。有一個例外，完全同意，因為它涉及與商品相關的定價。但當然，也有一些市場的貨幣正在大幅貶值。

Right.

正確的。

And there is where you would see our highest amount of pricing, take Argentina, Turkey, the usual suspects.

在那裡你會看到我們定價最高的地方，比如阿根廷、土耳其，這些通常被懷疑的國家。

Correct. So if you look at the enterprise market, this would generally take higher pricing in line with overall inflation in the market. So to Jon's point, that will continue to be the case. There are other markets where pricing is notoriously more difficult, think about Japan, think about the G7 in general. So that's where you see less pricing impact.

正確的。因此，如果你看看企業市場，這通常會根據市場的整體通脹情況採取更高的定價。因此，就喬恩而言，情況將繼續如此。眾所周知，還有其他市場更難定價，想想日本，想想 G7。所以這就是你看到定價影響較小的地方。

But that's not different from what we would have seen over the past few quarters. Look, our desire to reinvest is across all vectors of superiority. So it is product package innovation. It's in communication, it's in go-to-market execution. So all of those are relevant. They differ by region, by category, obviously. The reason why we're focusing more on volume share is we believe that it is our job and opportunity to continue to drive penetration of our brands. We have a huge runway when you think about our ability to continue to drive consumption and even the most developed categories.

但這與我們在過去幾個季度看到的情況沒有什麼不同。看，我們對再投資的渴望遍及所有優勢領域。所以是產品包裝創新。它在溝通中，在上市執行中。所以所有這些都是相關的。很明顯，它們因地區、類別而異。我們之所以更加關註銷量份額，是因為我們相信繼續推動我們品牌的滲透是我們的工作和機會。當您考慮我們繼續推動消費甚至最發達類別的能力時，我們有一條巨大的跑道。

So we want to focus our team on driving -- continue to drive household penetration, continue to create jobs to be done, continue to drive consumption opportunities. A world in which all of the market growth is driven by pricing is obviously not sustainable. And so both elements need to come back in balance, and that's why you see us talk both elements here between value and volume share.

因此，我們希望我們的團隊專注於推動——繼續推動家庭普及，繼續創造就業機會，繼續推動消費機會。一個所有市場增長都由定價驅動的世界顯然是不可持續的。因此，這兩個要素都需要恢復平衡，這就是為什麼你看到我們在這裡談論價值和數量份額之間的兩個要素。

Just for clarity on this point though, I am not interested in volume share at the expense of value share. volume share is a way to deliver value share. So least we not be clear, it's both that are important, not a shift in emphasis between 1 or the other. The other reason that I wanted to make sure and we talked a little bit about volume is that it's a natural concern when we're taking this pricing as to how your volume is holding up and how -- particularly how's your volume share holding. So we just wanted to be transparent on how we're seeing it, which is very attractive so far.

不過，為了澄清這一點，我對以價值份額為代價的數量份額不感興趣。數量份額是交付價值份額的一種方式。所以至少我們不清楚，兩者都很重要，而不是在其中之一或另一個之間轉移重點。我想確定的另一個原因是，我們談到了一些關於交易量的問題，那就是當我們採用這個定價時，你的交易量如何保持以及如何 - 特別是你的交易量份額如何持有，這是一個自然的問題。所以我們只是想對我們如何看待它保持透明，這到目前為止非常有吸引力。

The final question comes from Jonathan Feeney from Consumer Edge.

最後一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 Jonathan Feeney。

I want to ask a simple question that's really complicated. When you look -- when you talk -- at the time you gave us the initial commodity guidance for the fiscal year '23 rough numbers, U.S.-based spot costs for freight and energy composite for your company, you're down something like 9% since then. And you have lowered your expectation for commodity inflation. Simple question is, can you -- are your experience costs for this quarter below their peak?

我想問一個非常複雜的簡單問題。當你看 - 當你說話時 - 在你給我們 23 財年粗略數字的初步商品指導時，你公司基於美國的運費和能源綜合現貨成本，你下降了大約 9 ％ 自那以後。而且您降低了對商品通脹的預期。簡單的問題是，您能否——本季度的體驗成本是否低於峰值？

Like I see the year-over-year was 380 basis points of cost push headwind to gross margin versus 510 last quarter. So there's a -- can you confirm there's been a sequential step down? And secondly, could you -- in what quarter would we expect costs to no longer be a headwind, like be all in the base? Would that be the June quarter, the September quarter or is that just impossible to say? I know there's a lot to unpack with cross-currency exposure and things that I don't see in U.S.-based spot, but it does seem like your costs are down from their peak.

就像我看到的那樣，與上一季度的 510 相比，成本推動毛利率的逆風同比增長了 380 個基點。所以有一個——你能確認有一個連續的降級嗎？其次，你能不能——我們預計在哪個季度成本不再是不利因素，就像全部在基地一樣？那會是 6 月季度、9 月季度還是不可能說？我知道交叉貨幣敞口和我在美國現貨市場看不到的東西有很多需要解決的問題，但看起來你的成本確實比高峰期有所下降。

Well, on the second question, I don't know. It's just a very simple answer. On the first question, yes, we see sequential progress on the cost side. But as I mentioned earlier, it's important to understand the 2 opposing forces. We don't buy commodities. We buy pack material, we buy super absorbers, we buy films, et cetera. And our suppliers are still in the process of passing through their own inflation. So while their input costs via commodity helps is certainly easing, they also haven't fully caught up to their cost structure hits that they have experienced over the past few quarters. So we'll continue to work with them to find the right solution here. But when exactly that balance is going to occur, hard to predict.

那麼，關於第二個問題，我不知道。這只是一個非常簡單的答案。關於第一個問題，是的，我們在成本方面看到了連續的進展。但正如我之前提到的，了解這兩種對立的力量很重要。我們不購買商品。我們購買包裝材料、超級吸收劑、薄膜等等。我們的供應商仍在經歷他們自己的通貨膨脹。因此，雖然他們通過商品幫助的投入成本肯定在下降，但他們也沒有完全趕上他們在過去幾個季度經歷的成本結構衝擊。因此，我們將繼續與他們合作，在這裡找到合適的解決方案。但究竟何時會出現這種平衡，很難預測。

Yes. And just one additional piece of detail on that. It's not that they're slow. It's that we have contracts that cover, as Andre said earlier, cover a period of time. And in many cases, prices are fixed for a period of time. And then it's time to enter into a new contract. And that's what's going to continue to happen for the foreseeable future, not forever. But that's why it's difficult, Jason, to look at, and I know you acknowledged this, to look at U.S. spot prices as the holistic indicator of the direction of things such as not -- that's not sufficient.

是的。還有一個額外的細節。並不是說他們慢。正如安德烈之前所說，我們的合同涵蓋了一段時間。在許多情況下，價格在一段時間內是固定的。然後是簽訂新合同的時候了。這就是在可預見的未來將繼續發生的事情，而不是永遠。但這就是為什麼 Jason 很難將美國現貨價格視為事物發展方向的整體指標，我知道你也承認這一點——這還不夠。

Okay. I want to thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your patience and unpacking all of this. Jon is going to be -- Jon, Andre and the team will be available the rest of the day to continue helping with that. My own unpack, I am very, very proud and thankful for the efforts of our team to grow 5% organically to do it across all categories, to continue to hold share in the U.S., build volume share, to be able to increase our sales guidance, all against the backdrop of significant deceleration of the market in China, the situation in Eastern Europe, the highest inflation rates in 40 years, this team has done an incredible job of executing our integrated strategy to continue momentum through all of that.

好的。我要感謝你今天加入我們，感謝你的耐心和打開所有這些。喬恩將 - 喬恩、安德烈和他的團隊將在今天剩下的時間裡繼續提供幫助。我自己打開包裝，我非常非常自豪和感謝我們的團隊努力實現 5% 的有機增長，在所有類別中做到這一點，繼續在美國占有份額，建立銷量份額，從而能夠增加我們的銷售額指導，在中國市場大幅減速、東歐局勢、40 年來最高通脹率的背景下，該團隊在執行我們的綜合戰略方面做得非常出色，以通過所有這些保持勢頭。

And similarly, on the bottom line, we talked about the impact on the quarter of commodities, foreign exchange and transportation. If you look at the last fiscal year, plus our forecast for the current year, you're talking about 50% of profit being eliminated as a result of headwinds in those 3 areas. We grew earnings per share last year. The team did. We're forecasting to grow our earnings per share modestly this year. It speaks to 2 things, I think, that are very, very important. One is the quality of the team; and two, is the relevance -- the continued relevance of the strategy. So for what it's worth, that's my unpack. And if you want to call on and discuss that further, I'm happy to do so. Thanks for your time.

同樣，在底線，我們談到了對商品、外彙和運輸季度的影響。如果你看看上一財年，加上我們對本年度的預測，你會發現由於這 3 個領域的不利因素，50% 的利潤被消除了。去年我們的每股收益有所增長。團隊做到了。我們預計今年每股收益將適度增長。我認為，它說明了兩件非常非常重要的事情。一是團隊素質；第二，是相關性——該戰略的持續相關性。所以不管它值多少錢，這就是我的拆包。如果你想進一步討論這個問題，我很樂意這樣做。謝謝你的時間。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。