寶潔 (PG) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's quarter-end conference call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

    早上好,歡迎來到寶潔公司的季度電話會議。正在錄製今天的事件以供重播。

  • This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

    本次討論將包括一些前瞻性陳述。如果您參考寶潔最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 報告,您將看到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測存在重大差異的因素的討論。

  • As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

    根據 G 條例的要求,寶潔需要讓您意識到,在討論過程中,公司將多次提及非公認會計原則和其他財務措施。 Procter & Gamble 認為這些措施為投資者提供了有關潛在業務趨勢的有用視角,並已在其投資者關係網站 www.pginvestor.com 上發布了對非公認會計原則財務措施的全面調整。

  • Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

    現在我將把電話轉給寶潔的首席財務官安德烈·舒爾滕。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We will keep prepared remarks brief and then turn straight to your questions. This was another strong quarter, strong top line growth across categories and regions, sequential earnings growth progress in the face of significant and still increasing cost headwinds.

    大家,早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是總裁兼首席執行官 Jon Moeller;和投資者關係高級副總裁 John Chevalier。我們會將準備好的評論保持簡短,然後直接回答您的問題。這是另一個強勁的季度,各類別和地區的收入增長強勁,面對顯著且仍在增加的成本逆風,連續盈利增長取得進展。

  • Starting with a few highlights on the March quarter. Organic sales grew 10%. Volume contributed 3 points of sales growth. Pricing added 5 points as additional price increases began to reach the market. Mix added 2 points to sales growth for the quarter. These strong company results are grounded in broad-based category and geographic strength.

    從 3 月季度的一些亮點開始。有機銷售額增長了 10%。銷量貢獻了 3 個百分點的銷售增長。隨著額外的價格上漲開始進入市場,定價增加了 5 個點。 Mix為本季度的銷售增長增加了2個百分點。這些強勁的公司業績基於廣泛的類別和地理優勢。

  • Each of the 10 product categories grew organic sales in the quarter. Personal Health Care grew more than 30%. Fabric Care was up low teens. Baby Care and Feminine Care grew double digits. Oral Care and Grooming up high singles. Home Care and Family Care up mid-single digits. Hair Care and Skin and Personal Care each grew low singles. Focus markets grew 9%, and enterprise markets were up 12%.

    10 個產品類別中的每一個都在本季度實現了有機銷售額增長。個人醫療保健增長超過 30%。織物護理價格低至十幾歲。嬰兒護理和女性護理增長了兩位數。口腔護理和修飾高單打。家庭護理和家庭護理達到中個位數。頭髮護理和皮膚和個人護理各自成長為低單。焦點市場增長 9%,企業市場增長 12%。

  • In focus markets, U.S. organic sales were up 11% on 7% growth in the base period. On a 2-year stack basis, U.S. organic sales up 18%. Focus markets in Europe were up 10% and Asia Pacific, up 8%. Greater China organic sales were down mid-single digits versus a comp period that was up 22%.

    在重點市場,美國有機銷售額在基期增長 7% 的基礎上增長了 11%。在 2 年的基礎上,美國有機銷售額增長了 18%。歐洲的焦點市場增長了 10%,亞太地區的焦點市場增長了 8%。大中華區有機銷售額下降了中個位數,而同期增長了 22%。

  • Market conditions continued to soften in the March quarter due to COVID-driven lockdowns. In enterprise markets, Europe grew 18%; Latin America, up 16%; and Asia, Middle East, Africa grew 8%. Broad-based growth across geographies with 6 of 7 regions growing organic sales high singles or better.

    由於 COVID 驅動的封鎖,市場狀況在 3 月季度繼續疲軟。在企業市場,歐洲增長了 18%;拉丁美洲,增長 16%;亞洲、中東、非洲增長8%。跨地區的廣泛增長,7 個地區中有 6 個地區的有機銷售額增長高單價或更高。

  • Global aggregate market share increased 50 basis points. 36 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. Our superiority strategy continues to drive strong market growth and in turn, share growth for P&G. All channel market value in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew nearly 9% this quarter. P&G value share continued to grow, up 1 point versus same quarter last year. Importantly, this share growth is broad-based. 9 out of 10 product categories grew share over the past 3-, 6- and 12-month period in the U.S. and globally.

    全球總市場份額增加 50 個基點。本季度,我們排名前 50 的類別國家組合中有 36 個保持或增長了份額。我們的優勢戰略繼續推動強勁的市場增長,進而推動寶潔的份額增長。本季度,我們競爭的美國類別的所有渠道市場價值增長了近 9%。寶潔價值份額繼續增長,比去年同期增長 1 個百分點。重要的是,這種份額增長是廣泛的。在過去的 3 個月、6 個月和 12 個月期間,10 個產品類別中有 9 個在美國和全球範圍內的份額都有所增長。

  • Consumers continue to prefer P&G brands, recognizing the superior performance and value. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.33, up 6% versus the prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 10%. Within the EPS results, we estimate Ukraine, Russia was a negative impact of about $0.01 per share.

    消費者繼續偏愛寶潔品牌,認可其卓越的性能和價值。最重要的是,每股核心收益為 1.33 美元,比上年增長 6%。在貨幣中性的基礎上,核心每股收益增長了 10%。在每股收益結果中,我們估計對烏克蘭、俄羅斯的負面影響約為每股 0.01 美元。

  • Core gross margin decreased 400 basis points, and currency-neutral core gross margin was down 380 basis points. Higher commodity and freight cost impacts combined were a 490 basis point hit to gross margins. Mix was 130 basis point headwind, mainly from product form and pack size mix impact.

    核心毛利率下降 400 個基點,貨幣中性核心毛利率下降 380 個基點。較高的商品和貨運成本影響加在一起對毛利率造成了 490 個基點的打擊。組合是 130 個基點的逆風,主要來自產品形式和包裝尺寸組合的影響。

  • Pricing and productivity savings of 260 basis points partially offset the gross margin headwinds. SG&A as a percentage of sales decreased 380 basis points due to strong top line leverage. Advertising investments remained strong as we continue to communicate the superiority and value of P&G offerings across price tiers.

    260 個基點的定價和生產力節省部分抵消了毛利率的不利影響。由於強勁的頂線槓桿,SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比下降了 380 個基點。廣告投資依然強勁,因為我們繼續在不同價格層級宣傳寶潔產品的優勢和價值。

  • Core operating margin decreased 10 basis points. Currency-neutral operating margin increased 20 basis points. Productivity improvements were 170 basis points [held] to this quarter. Free cash flow productivity was 74% as receivables and inventories increased due to strong sales results. We returned $3.4 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.2 billion in dividends and $1.2 billion in share repurchase. Last week, we announced a 5% increase in our dividend, reinforcing our commitment to return cash to share owners, many of whom rely on the steady, reliable income earned with their P&G investment.

    核心營業利潤率下降 10 個基點。貨幣中性營業利潤率增加 20 個基點。到本季度,生產力提高了 170 個基點。由於銷售業績強勁,應收賬款和庫存增加,自由現金流生產率為 74%。我們向股東返還了 34 億美元現金、約 22 億美元的股息和 12 億美元的股票回購。上週,我們宣布將股息提高 5%,強化了我們向股東返還現金的承諾,他們中的許多人依賴於通過寶潔投資獲得的穩定、可靠的收入。

  • This is the 66th consecutive annual dividend increase and 132nd consecutive year P&G has paid a dividend. So 3 quarters into the fiscal, organic sales up nearly 7% on broad-based growth across categories and geographies, solid global value share growth, sequentially improving EPS growth, strong cash productivity and an increased income commitment to owners of P&G shares.

    這是寶潔連續第 66 年增加股息,也是寶潔連續第 132 年支付股息。因此,在本財年的 3 個季度內,有機銷售額增長了近 7%,這得益於跨類別和地域的廣泛增長、穩健的全球價值份額增長、每股收益增長的連續提高、強勁的現金生產力以及對寶潔股票所有者的收入承諾增加。

  • Moving on to strategy. Our team continues to operate with excellence and stay focused on the strategies that enabled us to create strong momentum prior to the COVID crisis and to make our business even stronger since the crisis began. We continue to step forward into the challenges and to double down on our efforts to delight consumers.

    繼續戰略。我們的團隊繼續以卓越的方式運營,並專注於使我們能夠在 COVID 危機之前創造強勁勢頭並使我們的業務自危機開始以來更加強大的戰略。我們將繼續迎接挑戰,並加倍努力取悅消費者。

  • The strategic choices we've made are the foundation for balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation; a portfolio of daily use products, many providing cleaning, health and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice. In these performance-driven categories, we've raised the bar on all aspects of superiority: product, package, brand communication, retail execution and value.

    我們所做的戰略選擇是實現收入平衡增長和價值創造的基礎;一系列日常使用產品,其中許多產品在性能在品牌選擇中發揮重要作用的類別中提供清潔、健康和衛生方面的好處。在這些以績效為導向的類別中,我們提高了優勢的各個方面的標準:產品、包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和價值。

  • Superior offerings delivered with superior execution drive market growth. This drives value creation for our retail partners and build market share for P&G brands. Noticeable superiority is perhaps the most important inflationary environment we are now facing -- is most important in the inflationary environment we are potentially facing.

    卓越的產品和卓越的執行力推動市場增長。這推動了我們的零售合作夥伴的價值創造,並為寶潔品牌建立了市場份額。顯著的優勢也許是我們現在面臨的最重要的通脹環境——在我們可能面臨的通脹環境中也是最重要的。

  • A great example is the formula innovation we've launched on Tide and Ariel laundry detergents to enable superior cleaning performance in cold water washing. We're strengthening the communication of the cost benefits to consumers and the environmental benefits for the planet on the package and in our advertising.

    一個很好的例子是我們在 Tide 和 Ariel 洗衣粉上推出的配方創新,以在冷水洗滌中實現卓越的清潔性能。我們正在通過包裝和廣告加強向消費者宣傳成本效益和地球環境效益。

  • For consumers, the savings from switching from hot to cold washing can nearly offset the cost of Tide or Ariel liquid detergent in each load. The superior cold water performance is a strong competitive advantage, enables immediate energy cost savings for our consumers and avoids the cost of rewashing, which may be necessary with less effective detergents. In addition, washing with cold water improves sustainability by reducing the energy required to heat water in the process and by improving garment lifespans.

    對於消費者而言,從熱洗切換到冷洗所節省的成本幾乎可以抵消每次裝載 Tide 或 Ariel 液體洗滌劑的成本。卓越的冷水性能是一個強大的競爭優勢,可以立即為我們的消費者節省能源成本,並避免重新洗滌的成本,這可能是使用效果較差的洗滌劑所必需的。此外,用冷水洗滌通過減少過程中加熱水所需的能量和提高服裝的使用壽命來提高可持續性。

  • Superior innovation delivering multiple benefits and improved value for consumers even while we price to offset a portion of the cost increases we are absorbing. We've made investments to strengthen the health and competitiveness of our brands across innovation, supply chain and brand equity. And we'll continue to invest to extend our margin of advantage and quality of execution, improving solutions for consumers around the world.

    卓越的創新為消費者帶來了多重利益和更高的價值,即使我們定價以抵消我們正在吸收的部分成本增加。我們進行了投資,以加強我們品牌在創新、供應鍊和品牌資產方面的健康和競爭力。我們將繼續投資以擴大我們的優勢和執行質量,為全球消費者改進解決方案。

  • Building on the strength of our brands, we are thoughtfully executing tailored price increases. We closed a couple of price increases with innovation to improve consumer value along the way. The strategic need for investments to continue to strengthen the superiority of our brands, the short-term need to manage through this challenging cost environment and the ongoing need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscore the importance of ongoing productivity.

    基於我們品牌的實力,我們正在深思熟慮地執行量身定制的價格上漲。我們通過創新結束了幾次價格上漲,以提高消費者的價值。繼續加強我們品牌優勢的投資戰略需求、在這一充滿挑戰的成本環境中進行管理的短期需求以及推動包括利潤率擴張在內的平衡頂線和底線增長的持續需求,強調了持續生產力的重要性.

  • We are committed to driving cost savings and cash productivity in all facets of our business. No area of cost is left untouched. Each business is driving productivity within their P&L and balance sheet to support balanced top and bottom line growth and strong cash generation.

    我們致力於在業務的各個方面推動成本節約和現金生產力。沒有一個成本領域不受影響。每個企業都在提高其損益表和資產負債表中的生產力,以支持平衡的頂線和底線增長以及強勁的現金生成。

  • Success in our highly competitive industry requires agility that comes with a mindset of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry in the future. In the current environment, that agility and constructive disruption mindset are even more important.

    在我們競爭激烈的行業中取得成功需要敏捷性,這種思維方式具有建設性的顛覆性思維,願意改變、適應和創造新的趨勢和技術,這些趨勢和技術將在未來塑造我們的行業。在當前環境下,這種敏捷性和建設性的顛覆心態更為重要。

  • Our organization structure yields a more empowered, agile and accountable organization with little overlap or redundancy, flowing to new demands, seamlessly supporting each other to deliver against our priorities around the world. Going forward, there are 4 areas in which we need to be even more deliberate and intentional to strengthen the execution of our strategies.

    我們的組織結構產生了一個更強大、更敏捷、更負責任的組織,幾乎沒有重疊或冗餘,可以滿足新的需求,無縫地相互支持,以實現我們在世界各地的優先事項。展望未來,我們需要在 4 個領域更加慎重和有意識地加強我們戰略的執行。

  • Leveraging environmental sustainability as an additional driver of superior performing products and packaging innovations; increasing our digital acumen to drive consumer and customer preference; reduce costs and enable rapid and efficient decision-making; next-level supply chain capabilities to enable flexibility, agility, resilience and a new level of productivity adapted to a new reality. And our employee value equation for all gender identities, races, ethnicity, sexual orientations, ages and abilities for all roles to ensure we continue to attract, retain and to develop the best talent.

    利用環境可持續性作為高性能產品和包裝創新的額外驅動力;提高我們的數字敏銳度,以推動消費者和客戶的偏好;降低成本並實現快速有效的決策;下一級供應鏈能力,以實現適應新現實的靈活性、敏捷性、彈性和新的生產力水平。我們的員工對所有性別認同、種族、民族、性取向、年齡和能力的所有角色都具有價值等式,以確保我們繼續吸引、留住和培養最優秀的人才。

  • These are not new or separate strategies. They are necessary elements in continuing to build superiority in reducing cost to enable investment and value creation and strengthening our organization. They are part of the constructive disruption we must continue to lead. These strategic choices on portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organizational structure and culture are not independent strategies. They reinforce and build on each other.

    這些不是新的或單獨的策略。它們是繼續在降低成本以實現投資和價值創造以及加強我們的組織方面建立優勢的必要因素。它們是我們必須繼續領導的建設性破壞的一部分。這些關於投資組合、優勢、生產力、建設性顛覆以及組織結構和文化的戰略選擇不是獨立的戰略。它們相互加強和建立。

  • When executed well, they grow markets, which in turn grow share, sales and profit. These strategies were delivering strong results before the pandemic and have served us well during these volatile times. We're confident they remain the right strategic framework as we move forward.

    如果執行得當,它們會擴大市場,進而增加份額、銷售額和利潤。這些策略在大流行之前取得了顯著成果,並在這些動蕩的時期為我們提供了良好的服務。我們相信,在我們前進的過程中,它們仍然是正確的戰略框架。

  • Moving on to guidance. We said each quarter that we will undoubtedly experience more volatility as we move through the fiscal year. We've seen another step in cost pressures, and foreign exchange rates have moved further against us. Transportation and labor markets remain tight. Availability of materials remain stretched in some categories and markets. Inflationary cost pressures are broad-based and continue to increase with little sign of near-term relief and have resulted in consumer price increases across CPG categories and beyond.

    繼續指導。我們每個季度都說過,隨著整個財年的推進,我們無疑會經歷更多的波動。我們看到成本壓力又邁進了一步,外匯匯率進一步對我們不利。運輸和勞動力市場仍然緊張。在某些類別和市場中,材料的供應仍然捉襟見肘。通脹成本壓力是廣泛的,並且繼續增加,幾乎沒有近期緩解的跡象,並導致 CPG 類別及其他類別的消費者價格上漲。

  • The recent spike in virus cases in China and resulting lockdowns are affecting consumption and have caused temporary work stoppages in our operations and those of our suppliers. These costs and operational challenges are not unique to P&G, and we won't be immune to their impact. However, we think the strategies we've chosen, the investments we've made and the focus on execution excellence have positioned us well to manage through these challenges over time.

    最近中國病毒病例激增以及由此導致的封鎖正在影響消費,並導致我們和供應商的運營暫時停工。這些成本和運營挑戰並非寶潔獨有,我們也無法倖免於它們的影響。然而,我們認為我們選擇的戰略、我們所做的投資以及對卓越執行的關注使我們能夠很好地應對這些挑戰。

  • Based on the current spot prices, we now estimate a $2.5 million after-tax commodity cost headwind in fiscal '22. Since our last update, we've seen continued cost increases in nearly every type of material we use and in diesel and in natural gas. Freight costs have continued to increase. We now expect freight and transportation costs to be a $400 million after-tax headwind in fiscal '22.

    根據當前的現貨價格,我們現在估計 22 財年的稅後商品成本逆風為 250 萬美元。自上次更新以來,我們發現我們使用的幾乎所有類型的材料以及柴油和天然氣的成本都在持續增加。運費繼續上漲。我們現在預計,在 22 財年,運費和運輸成本將是 4 億美元的稅後逆風。

  • Foreign exchange rate has also moved further against us since our last guidance. We now expect FX to be a $300 million after-tax headwind to earnings for the fiscal year. We are offsetting a portion of these cost pressures with price increases and with productivity savings.

    自我們上次指導以來,外匯匯率也進一步對我們不利。我們現在預計外匯對本財年的收益構成 3 億美元的稅後逆風。我們正在通過價格上漲和生產力節約來抵消部分成本壓力。

  • Since the start of the fiscal year, we've taken price increases in each of our 10 product categories in the U.S. You may recall, it was 1 year ago when we announced price increases in the Feminine Care and Baby Care categories. Over the last year, input costs have continued to increase substantially. And as a result, the Feminine Care business has announced an additional price increase in the U.S., which will be effective in mid-July.

    自本財年開始以來,我們在美國的 10 個產品類別中的每一個都進行了價格上漲。您可能還記得,一年前我們宣布女性護理和嬰兒護理類別的價格上漲。去年,投入成本持續大幅增加。因此,女性護理業務宣佈在美國進一步提價,將於 7 月中旬生效。

  • Also as a result of these increased cost headwinds, we recently announced price increases on certain items in the U.S. Home Care category that will be effective at the end of June and in the U.S. Oral Care business that will be effective mid-July. As always, each category in each market is continually assessing the cost impacts they face and the potential need for pricing. If there are decisions to price, the degree and timing of those moves will be very specific to the category, the brand and sometimes to the individual SKU. This is not a one-size-fits-all approach.

    同樣由於這些增加的成本逆風,我們最近宣布將在 6 月底生效的美國家庭護理類別中的某些商品以及將於 7 月中旬生效的美國口腔護理業務中的某些商品上調價格。與往常一樣,每個市場中的每個類別都在不斷評估他們面臨的成本影響和潛在的定價需求。如果有定價決定,那麼這些舉措的程度和時間將非常具體地針對品類、品牌,有時還針對個別 SKU。這不是一種萬能的方法。

  • Also, just as we've done over the past year, we'll look to close a couple of price increases with new innovation that offers our consumers more value, continue to drive category growth and maintain our competitive superiority advantage. As we said before, we believe this is a temporary bottom line rough patch to grow through, not a reason to reduce investment in the business. We're sticking with the strategy that has been working well before and during the COVID crisis.

    此外,正如我們在過去一年所做的那樣,我們將尋求通過新的創新來結束幾次價格上漲,為我們的消費者提供更多價值,繼續推動品類增長並保持我們的競爭優勢。正如我們之前所說,我們認為這是一個暫時的底線粗糙補丁,而不是減少業務投資的理由。我們堅持在 COVID 危機之前和期間一直運作良好的策略。

  • Moving to key guidance metrics. We now expect organic sales growth in the range of 6% to 7% for the fiscal year, a 2-point increase versus our prior guidance of 4% to 5%. Pricing was a sequentially stronger contributor to top line growth in the third quarter and will continue to be a driver again in the fourth quarter as we get the full effect of increases taken over the past few months.

    轉向關鍵指導指標。我們現在預計本財年的有機銷售額增長在 6% 到 7% 之間,比我們之前的 4% 到 5% 的預期增長 2 個百分點。定價是第三季度收入增長的一個連續強勁的貢獻者,並且在第四季度將繼續成為推動力,因為我們得到了過去幾個月增長的全部影響。

  • We are closely monitoring consumption trends for signs of changes. So far, elasticities have been in line or better than our expectations. Demand for our best-performing, premium-priced offerings remain strong as do our market share trends. On the bottom line, we're maintaining the core earnings per share growth range of 3% to 6%. But given cost challenges we're facing, we now expect to be at the low end of the range at 3%.

    我們正在密切關註消費趨勢,尋找變化的跡象。到目前為止,彈性一直符合或好於我們的預期。對我們表現最佳、價格優惠的產品的需求仍然強勁,我們的市場份額趨勢也是如此。歸根結底,我們將核心每股收益增長幅度維持在 3% 至 6% 之間。但鑑於我們面臨的成本挑戰,我們現在預計將處於 3% 的範圍的低端。

  • Within this guidance, we expect an additional $0.04 per share of negative impact in the fourth quarter from higher costs and limited operations in Ukraine and Russia. The impact from commodities, freight and foreign exchange has increased significantly since the start of the fiscal year. Our initial guidance in July assumed $1.8 billion after tax or about $0.70 a share. This increased to $2.3 billion in our October outlook, $2.8 billion in January, now a $3.2 billion after-tax headwind to fiscal '22 earnings.

    在該指引中,我們預計第四季度由於成本上升以及烏克蘭和俄羅斯的運營有限,每股將額外產生 0.04 美元的負面影響。自本財年開始以來,大宗商品、貨運和外彙的影響顯著增加。我們在 7 月份的初步指導假設稅後 18 億美元或每股約 0.70 美元。在我們 10 月份的展望中,這一數字增加到 23 億美元,1 月份為 28 億美元,現在對 22 財年的收益構成了 32 億美元的稅後逆風。

  • On an EPS basis, the headwinds are now approximately $1.26 a share or a 22% headwind to core EPS. So in the face of an incremental $0.56 per share of negative cost impact since the start of the year, we've held our going-in EPS range, and we've maintained strong investment superiority with new product innovation and fully funded advertising programs.

    在每股收益的基礎上,逆風現在約為每股 1.26 美元或核心每股收益的 22%。因此,面對自今年年初以來每股增加 0.56 美元的負面成本影響,我們保持了我們的每股收益範圍,並且我們通過新產品創新和資金充足的廣告計劃保持了強大的投資優勢。

  • Of note, the majority of the recent $400 million increase in cost and foreign exchange headwinds will impact us in the fourth quarter, free cash flow productivity of 95% for the year. We continue to expect to pay $8 billion in dividends and now expect to repurchase approximately $10 billion of common stock, combined a plan to return $18 billion of cash to share owners this fiscal year.

    值得注意的是,最近 4 億美元的成本和外匯逆風增加中的大部分將在第四季度影響我們,全年自由現金流生產率為 95%。我們繼續預計將支付 80 億美元的股息,現在預計將回購約 100 億美元的普通股,併計劃在本財年向股東返還 180 億美元現金。

  • This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity prices and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruptions, major supply chain disruptions and store closures are not anticipated within these guidance ranges.

    該展望基於當前市場增長率估計、商品價格和外匯匯率。預計不會在這些指導範圍內出現明顯的額外貨幣疲軟、商品成本增加、地緣政治中斷、主要供應鏈中斷和商店關閉。

  • To conclude, our business continues to exhibit strong momentum. And we believe P&G is well-positioned to grow through and beyond the immediate issues we are facing. We will manage through the near-term cost pressures and market volatility with the strategy we've outlined many times.

    總而言之,我們的業務繼續呈現強勁勢頭。我們相信,寶潔已做好充分準備,能夠克服並超越我們所面臨的直接問題。我們將通過我們多次概述的策略來應對近期的成本壓力和市場波動。

  • We'll continue to step forward toward our opportunities and remain fully invested in our business. We remain committed to driving productivity improvements to fund growth investments, mitigate input cost challenges and to maintain balanced top and bottom line growth.

    我們將繼續朝著我們的機會邁進,並繼續對我們的業務進行全面投資。我們仍然致力於推動生產力的提高,為增長投資提供資金,緩解投入成本挑戰,並保持平衡的收入和利潤增長。

  • With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    有了這個,我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. Andre, curious this quarter's revenue numbers surely show that there isn't really much that's happening in the way of trade down, and you just commented on elasticity. But I just was curious kind of what, if anything, P&G is doing to prepare for what feels like an inevitability for consumers becoming more sensitive to the pricing that is prevalent not just in your products, but across everything that they need to buy. So anything that you guys are doing proactively to help mitigate or think ahead to when trade down or substitution may become more of a factor.

    偉大的。安德烈,好奇本季度的收入數字肯定表明在貿易下降的方式中並沒有發生太多的事情,你只是評論了彈性。但我只是好奇寶潔正在做什麼,如果有的話,是為了讓消費者對定價變得更加敏感,這似乎是不可避免的,這種定價不僅在您的產品中,而且在他們需要購買的所有東西中都普遍存在。因此,你們主動採取的任何措施來幫助緩解或提前考慮何時降價或替代可能會成為一個更大的因素。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Sure, Lauren. Yes, so as you said, in the data at this point, we continue to see favorable price elasticities relative to historic elasticities we've observed. Elasticities are better by about 20% to 30% versus what historical data would have indicated. That's good.

    當然,勞倫。是的,正如您所說,在此時的數據中,我們繼續看到相對於我們觀察到的歷史彈性而言有利的價格彈性。與歷史數據所顯示的相比,彈性要好約 20% 到 30%。那挺好的。

  • But looking forward, we certainly have our eyes wide open and watch for any change in terms of consumer behavior. And as you say, we prepare on multiple fronts. I think the first level of protection here is the portfolio we've chosen to play in. We've moved out of discretionary categories into categories that are daily use, health- and hygiene-focused, where performance truly drive brand choice.

    但展望未來,我們當然會睜大眼睛,留意消費者行為方面的任何變化。正如你所說,我們在多個方面做準備。我認為這裡的第一級保護是我們選擇參與的產品組合。我們已經從可自由支配的類別轉移到以日常使用、健康和衛生為重點的類別,其中性能真正推動了品牌選擇。

  • That allows us to continue to invest in superiority, which we are doing consistently. Even though we see cost pressures, we continue to invest in superiority in every category and every proposition. That is probably the best protection. And consumers are rewarding us with continued trade-in and continuous trade up, which you see in the share numbers to date.

    這使我們能夠繼續投資於優勢,我們一直在這樣做。即使我們看到成本壓力,我們仍會繼續投資於每個類別和每個主張的優勢。這可能是最好的保護。消費者通過持續的以舊換新和持續的交易來獎勵我們,你可以在迄今為止的股票數量中看到這一點。

  • The superiority also allows us to translate product superiority, for example, into value superiority more directly for the consumers. So that's the second intervention I would describe. So we are more proactively turning true product superiority into value claims that we put on tech, use in our advertising.

    優越性也讓我們能夠更直接地為消費者將產品優勢轉化為價值優勢。這就是我要描述的第二個乾預措施。因此,我們更積極地將真正的產品優勢轉化為我們在技術上、在廣告中使用的價值主張。

  • One example is the Ariel cold -- Ariel and Tide cold water wash that I have mentioned in the prepared remarks. There are other innovations like the ADW, the automatic dishwasher myth buster, stating that even with 8 dishes, it's more efficient to use the dishwasher than cleaning the dishes under running water, the latest easy squeeze innovation on Dawn that allows the consumer to use every last drop without any compromise on performance.

    一個例子是我在準備好的評論中提到的 Ariel 冷水——Ariel 和 Tide 冷水洗。還有其他創新,例如自動洗碗機神話終結者 ADW,它指出即使有 8 個盤子,使用洗碗機也比在流水下清洗盤子更有效,Dawn 最新的輕鬆擠壓創新允許消費者使用每個最後一滴,對性能沒有任何妥協。

  • So those are examples that we're turning into value plays to have consumers understand more easily the value that is coming by using P&G propositions. We have intentionally built price levels in every brand and across brands to ensure that we have offerings for consumers. If they feel they are budget constrained, they can trade within the P&G brand offerings. So on diapers, we have multiple offerings, starting with the Pampers Pure at about $0.40 a diaper, Swaddlers at $0.35 a diaper, Baby Dry at $0.30 and (inaudible) at $0.20.

    因此,我們將這些例子轉化為價值遊戲,讓消費者更容易理解使用寶潔主張所帶來的價值。我們有意為每個品牌和跨品牌建立價格水平,以確保我們為消費者提供產品。如果他們覺得預算有限,他們可以在寶潔品牌產品範圍內進行交易。因此,在尿布方面,我們提供多種產品,從 Pampers Pure 開始,每片約 0.40 美元,Swaddlers 每片 0.35 美元,Baby Dry 為 0.30 美元,(聽不清)為 0.20 美元。

  • These price levels exist in all categories and offer the consumer a choice within the P&G portfolio. We are also, which is part of our pricing execution, protecting key price points, key value price points for each offering. So consumers can choose different cash outlays as they shop based on their available cash at the moment of shopping.

    這些價格水平存在於所有類別中,並為消費者提供了寶潔產品組合中的選擇。我們也是,這是我們定價執行的一部分,保護每個產品的關鍵價格點和關鍵價值價格點。因此,消費者可以根據購物時的可用現金選擇不同的現金支出。

  • The last element, we intentionally built distribution across all channels and invested in all channels. And that includes channels that consumers that are more budget constrained would migrate to like hard discounters in Europe, like the dollar channel in the U.S., for example. So building distribution across those channels to be able to serve the consumer where they want to shop is the last element I would call out. So all of those leave us in a better position than we've ever been to deal with the potential consumer that is more budget constrained. To date, we're not seeing that come through.

    最後一個元素,我們有意在所有渠道建立分銷並投資於所有渠道。這包括預算更有限的消費者會轉向喜歡歐洲的硬折扣店的渠道,例如美國的美元渠道。因此,在這些渠道上建立分銷以便能夠為他們想要購物的消費者提供服務是我要強調的最後一個要素。因此,所有這些都使我們處於比以往任何時候都更好的位置來應對預算更加有限的潛在消費者。迄今為止,我們還沒有看到這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • So my question is about just the -- I guess, the path to stabilizing gross margins in particular. And I guess if we look at the quarter, right, the pricing and productivity covered about half of the inflation, so if you take the mix effect out of gross margins.

    所以我的問題是關於——我想,尤其是穩定毛利率的途徑。我猜如果我們看這個季度,定價和生產力覆蓋了大約一半的通貨膨脹,所以如果你把混合效應從毛利率中剔除。

  • And so, I guess, as we're modeling going forward, what are the levers that are going to -- that we should look to, to stabilize gross margins? Will there be a lot more incremental pricing? I know you've talked a little bit about that in the prepared remarks, a step-up in productivity. Just trying to understand what the levers are going to be as we kind of look forward over the next couple of quarters on gross margins.

    因此,我想,隨著我們繼續建模,我們應該關注哪些槓桿來穩定毛利率?會有更多的增量定價嗎?我知道你在準備好的評論中談到了一點,提高了生產力。只是想了解槓桿將是什麼,因為我們有點期待接下來幾個季度的毛利率。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes, Bryan. You're right. Over the past 3 quarters, you see pricing and productivity continue to increase a bigger portion of the commodity, foreign exchange and T&W gross margin impact. In quarter 1, this covered 37%. In quarter 2, we covered, I believe, 43%, and now we're at 53%. So you see a bigger portion being covered over time.

    是的,布萊恩。你是對的。在過去的 3 個季度中,您會看到定價和生產力繼續增加對商品、外彙和 T&W 毛利率影響的更大比例。在第一季度,這覆蓋了 37%。在第二季度,我們覆蓋了,我相信,43%,現在我們達到了 53%。因此,隨著時間的推移,您會看到更大的部分被覆蓋。

  • We are -- those effects. We will continue to drive all 3 levers to recover the dollar impact of commodity cost increases, foreign exchange and T&W. Productivity will continue to play a significant role. We have a lot of runway left on productivity. And as the supply situation stabilizes here over time, we have more line time and more resources available to reinvest in cost of goods savings. And that will allow us to strengthen our productivity muscle here sequentially, hopefully, over the next few quarters.

    我們是——那些影響。我們將繼續推動所有三個槓桿來恢復商品成本增加、外彙和 T&W 對美元的影響。生產力將繼續發揮重要作用。我們有很多關於生產力的跑道。隨著這裡的供應情況隨著時間的推移穩定下來,我們有更多的生產線時間和更多的資源可用於再投資於商品成本節約。這將使我們能夠在接下來的幾個季度中依次增強我們的生產力。

  • We will continue to drive innovation. We have prioritized innovation in our resource and line time allocations to ensure that we can continue to offer superior value to our consumers, which also enables us to take pricing and see these relatively benign elasticities at this point in time. So you continue to see us invest in innovation. With innovation, we will try to take pricing at a very granular level by market, by brand.

    我們將繼續推動創新。我們優先考慮資源和生產線時間分配的創新,以確保我們能夠繼續為消費者提供卓越的價值,這也使我們能夠定價並在此時看到這些相對良性的彈性。因此,您將繼續看到我們投資於創新。通過創新,我們將嘗試按市場、按品牌進行非常精細的定價。

  • A lot of the price increases that we have announced are yet to flow through. So you will see an incremental contribution to the top line and to gross margin recovery over the future. The other price increase is already announced, and we will have to carefully evaluate more opportunities to take pricing.

    我們宣布的許多價格上漲尚未落實。因此,您將看到對未來收入和毛利率恢復的增量貢獻。另一個價格上漲已經宣布,我們將不得不仔細評估更多的定價機會。

  • It will take time to recover the full dollar impact. And as we said before, it's more important to us to support the business model, support innovation, support superiority, execute pricing in the right way and recover gross margin and cost impact over time versus rushing to do this faster. So you should expect sequential progress. I won't give you a specific time line. We will continue to use all 3, productivity, innovation and pricing.

    恢復對美元的全部影響需要時間。正如我們之前所說,對我們來說,支持商業模式、支持創新、支持優勢、以正確的方式執行定價以及隨著時間的推移恢復毛利率和成本影響,而不是急於加快速度,這一點更為重要。所以你應該期待連續的進步。我不會給你一個具體的時間線。我們將繼續使用所有 3,生產力,創新和定價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

    您的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

  • Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

    Dara Warren Mohsenian - MD

  • I was hoping to get a bit more detail on China. How much of the decline in the quarter do you think was specifically related to lockdowns and maybe the comp versus last year? And can you give us a bit more granularity on some of the performance by product category there? And any thoughts on China going forward with the continued lockdowns in April and how the business is positioned going forward?

    我希望能得到更多關於中國的細節。您認為本季度的下降有多少與封鎖特別相關,也許與去年相比?您能否更詳細地介紹一下按產品類別劃分的一些性能?以及對中國在 4 月份繼續封鎖以及未來業務定位的任何想法?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Dara. Look, China, the lockdowns had 2 impacts in China for us. One, on the supply side, we have 2 plants in the Shanghai area and the contract manufacturer. Those, obviously, were shut down for now an extended period of time. So we had to activate our business continuity plans to offset as much of that production impact as we could.

    是的。謝謝,達拉。看,中國,封鎖對我們有兩個影響。一、在供應方面,我們在上海地區有2家工廠和合同製造商。顯然,這些已經被關閉了很長一段時間。因此,我們必須啟動我們的業務連續性計劃,以盡可能多地抵消生產影響。

  • And we're certainly seeing a significant impact in terms of consumer demand. About 25%, I think, was the Wall Street estimates of consumers are somehow impacted by lockdown. That is impacting our consumers' ability to reach stores, grocery stores, department stores. Even online shopping is significantly constrained due to the inability to deliver. So we certainly see a significant impact from lockdowns. Latest read of market size in our categories over the past 3 months through March was flat in terms of value in China. With the continued lockdown and the difficulties in the market, we would expect April to be flat to negative.

    我們當然看到了消費者需求方面的重大影響。我認為,華爾街對消費者的估計大約有 25% 受到了封鎖的影響。這正在影響我們的消費者到達商店、雜貨店、百貨商店的能力。由於無法交付,即使是在線購物也受到很大限制。因此,我們當然看到了封鎖帶來的重大影響。在截至 3 月的過去 3 個月中,我們類別的市場規模的最新數據在中國的價值方面持平。由於持續的封鎖和市場困難,我們預計 4 月將持平至負數。

  • In terms of category detail, Beauty is significantly exposed to China. As you know, a bigger part of Beauty is -- of the Beauty business is in China. SK-II continues to be under pressure due to the market effect and channel effects in China. So that dynamic has not changed.

    就品類細節而言,美妝在中國的影響力顯著。如你所知,美容業務的很大一部分是——美容業務在中國。由於中國的市場效應和渠道效應,SK-II 繼續承壓。所以這種動態沒有改變。

  • The longer-term story on China based on historical results, which have been extremely strong over the past 3, 4 years, as you know, we've grown high singles, low doubles in China. We believe the market continues to be a very attractive market for us. We expect categories to return to mid-single, high singles growth. We have a very strong organization, a very strong supply chain, a very strong R&D organization in China. So we remain confident, and we will continue to invest to capture the growth in the future.

    基於歷史結果的中國長期故事,在過去的 3、4 年中非常強勁,如你所知,我們在中國的單打和低雙打都有所增長。我們相信市場對我們來說仍然是一個非常有吸引力的市場。我們預計品類將恢復到中單、高單打增長。我們在中國有一個非常強大的組織,一個非常強大的供應鏈,一個非常強大的研發組織。因此,我們仍然充滿信心,我們將繼續投資以捕捉未來的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will come from the line of Rob Ottenstein with Evercore.

    下一個問題將來自與 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。

  • Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Just a point of clarification to start off. Can you tell us kind of what your pricing run rate was at the end of the quarter, given that the pricing was going in throughout the quarter and the year? I think you were at 5% on average, but just like to get a sense of what the run rate was.

    只是一個澄清點開始。鑑於定價在整個季度和全年都在進行,您能否告訴我們您在本季度末的定價運行率是多少?我認為您平均為 5%,但只是想了解運行率是多少。

  • And then I'd like to dig in a little bit more on the state of the consumer. You mentioned that elasticities were 20% to 30% better than what history has shown. But the current conditions, we've never had these kind of current conditions before at least in anybody's recent memory.

    然後我想深入挖掘一下消費者的狀態。您提到彈性比歷史顯示的要好 20% 到 30%。但是目前的情況,至少在任何人最近的記憶中,我們從來沒有遇到過這種情況。

  • So I was wondering what your consumer panels are telling you about why the elasticities are better? Is it because of increased savings? Is it the low rates of unemployment? How much has maybe contributed to your superiority? Just trying to get a little bit better sense of your read on the consumer from your own internal research.

    所以我想知道你的消費者小組告訴你為什麼彈性更好?是因為儲蓄增加了嗎?是失業率低嗎?有多少可能促成了你的優勢?只是試圖從您自己的內部研究中更好地了解您對消費者的了解。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Okay. Thanks, Robert. So in terms of pricing run rate for the quarter, on average, we have a 5-point contribution to top line. As we said, pricing will continue to increase as more of the price increases flow through. So I would say exiting the quarter, I would see about a 6% run rate to top line from pricing contribution. So you will see more of the pricing that has been announced, and that will flow through in April for the flow through in quarter 4.

    好的。謝謝,羅伯特。因此,就本季度的定價運行率而言,平均而言,我們對收入貢獻了 5 個百分點。正如我們所說,隨著更多的價格上漲流過,定價將繼續上漲。所以我會說退出本季度,我會看到定價貢獻的最高運行率約為 6%。因此,您將看到更多已宣布的定價,這些定價將在 4 月通過,以在第 4 季度通過。

  • Pricing elasticities remain favorable. And within the portfolio that we offer to consumers, we broadly see a trade up into higher price propositions that offer better value and better product performance. So -- and that explains the mix effect that you see in gross margin, where we see higher unit sales items being chosen with higher penny profit but slightly lower gross margin.

    定價彈性仍然有利。在我們向消費者提供的產品組合中,我們普遍看到了向更高價格主張的交易,以提供更好的價值和更好的產品性能。所以 - 這解釋了你在毛利率中看到的混合效應,我們看到單位銷售量更高的商品被選擇,利潤更高,但毛利率略低。

  • So consumers are trading into single unit dose detergents instead of liquid detergent. Consumers are trading into Swaddlers instead of Baby Dry in diapers. So we see consumers trading up even within our portfolio into higher-performing product propositions.

    因此,消費者正在交易單劑量洗滌劑而不是液體洗滌劑。消費者正在用襁褓代替尿布中的嬰兒乾。因此,我們看到消費者甚至在我們的產品組合中也進行了交易,從而獲得了更高性能的產品主張。

  • The relevancy of -- or the relevance of product performance in our categories, we believe, is the reason why consumers are not trading down. We've had an extensive period of trial during the early COVID phases, where consumers have traded into P&G. They've experienced the superior performance of our propositions. They've seen the relative value that we provide.

    我們認為,我們類別中產品性能的相關性或相關性是消費者不降價的原因。在 COVID 的早期階段,我們已經進行了長時間的試驗,消費者已轉而購買寶潔。他們已經體驗了我們提議的卓越表現。他們看到了我們提供的相對價值。

  • Even though the cash outlay might be higher, they see the higher efficacy of the product and the benefit that they gain from it. And we've seen repeat rates reaffirming that. We believe that a good portion of the resiliency of our demand is driven by the superiority of the product and packaging, clear communication of the benefits basis, clear communication of the value, good retail execution and carefully crafted price increases that allow consumers to choose the cash outlay they feel ready to afford, and to choose the brand and brand proposition that they are looking for. So I'll leave it at that.

    儘管現金支出可能更高,但他們看到了產品的更高功效以及他們從中獲得的好處。我們已經看到重複率再次證實了這一點。我們相信,我們需求彈性的很大一部分是由產品和包裝的優越性、利益基礎的清晰傳達、價值的清晰傳達、良好的零售執行和精心設計的價格上漲驅動的,讓消費者可以選擇他們覺得準備好支付現金支出,並選擇他們正在尋找的品牌和品牌主張。所以我就這樣吧。

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Robert, this is Jon. Just a couple of other pieces of perspective on this. And of course, it's a rapidly evolving situation, and this could change tomorrow. But if you look for data points to support Andre's comments on consumer resilience, you, obviously, see them within the internals of our income statement as you mentioned. Also, if you look at private label shares as a proxy for trade down, they remain below a year ago in the U.S. for the past 3, 6 and 12 months. They remain below a year ago in Europe for the past 3, 6 and 12 months.

    羅伯特,這是喬恩。只是對此的一些其他觀點。當然,這是一個快速發展的情況,明天可能會改變。但是,如果您尋找數據點來支持安德烈關於消費者彈性的評論,您顯然會在您提到的損益表內部看到它們。此外,如果您將自有品牌股票視為交易下降的代表,在過去的 3、6 和 12 個月中,它們在美國仍低於一年前。在過去的 3 個月、6 個月和 12 個月裡,它們在歐洲仍然低於一年前。

  • And if you look at market shares across channels, Andre mentioned earlier that we're -- we've worked to improve our distribution in channels where consumers with more of a budget challenge are inclined to shop. Our share growth in those channels, entirely consistent with his points, are some of our highest share growth across retail banners.

    如果您查看跨渠道的市場份額,安德烈早些時候提到我們 - 我們一直在努力改善我們在預算挑戰更多的消費者傾向於購物的渠道中的分銷。我們在這些渠道的份額增長與他的觀點完全一致,是我們在零售橫幅中的最高份額增長。

  • So in the dollar channel, for example, significant share growth. Again, we'll have to monitor this very closely. Things can change tomorrow. But as we sit here today, it looks like the moves we've made to focus the portfolio in daily use categories where performance drives brand choice. Then deliver on the performance aspect across the vectors of superiority and be very granular in our pricing executions is holding up.

    所以以美元渠道為例,份額增長顯著。同樣,我們必須非常密切地監控這一點。明天事情可能會改變。但是當我們今天坐在這裡時,看起來我們已經採取行動將產品組合集中在性能驅動品牌選擇的日常使用類別中。然後在優勢向量中提供性能方面,並在我們的定價執行中保持非常精細。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will come from the line of Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

    下一個問題將來自傑富瑞的 Kevin Grundy。

  • Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

    Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

  • Great. My question relates to category growth rates, understanding the volatility of the environment. And I guess I'm coming at this from the angle, I'm trying to unpack the strength of the 10% organic sales growth in the quarter and just the areas of favorability versus your plan.

    偉大的。我的問題與類別增長率有關,了解環境的波動性。我想我是從這個角度來看的,我試圖解開本季度 10% 有機銷售增長的力量,以及與你的計劃相比的有利領域。

  • We've covered a lot of this. Demand elasticity, clearly better. Trade up remains favorable despite the environment. You continue to gain market share, which is great, up 50 basis points globally. Though, I'm less certain that degree of market share gain would be very different than your plan.

    我們已經介紹了很多。需求彈性,明顯更好。儘管環境如此,但交易仍然有利。你繼續獲得市場份額,這很棒,在全球範圍內增加了 50 個基點。不過,我不太確定市場份額的增長程度會與您的計劃大不相同。

  • And then we haven't touched on this on the call. I'm not sure maybe there is some degree of inventory rebalancing with the trade because demand has outstripped supply in recent quarters. So where I'm going with this and understand the volatility of the environment, has there been any material change in your view for the categories as you look across your geographies and you look across the categories that you participate in, and we're thinking about our forecast going forward. Any material change to category growth rates based on what you're currently seeing? So your comments there would be helpful.

    然後我們在電話會議上沒有談到這一點。我不確定是否存在一定程度的庫存再平衡,因為最近幾個季度需求超過了供應。因此,我將在哪裡了解環境的波動性關於我們未來的預測。根據您目前所看到的情況,類別增長率是否有任何重大變化?所以你的評論會有幫助。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Kevin, thank you. So category growth rates are holding up well. Fiscal year-to-date, global category growth in the categories we compete in is 5%. We expect that to continue at around 5%. Category growth in focus markets is 5%. Category growth in enterprise markets is 7%. So it's a strong 5% on a global level. It's fairly consistent. Enterprise markets have been growing past 3, 6 and 12 at 7%. Focus markets have gone between 4% and 5% over the past 3, 6 and 12 months. So if anything, in the most recent reading, we've seen strengthening of category growth.

    凱文,謝謝。因此,類別增長率保持良好。本財年迄今為止,我們競爭的類別的全球類別增長率為 5%。我們預計這一比例將繼續保持在 5% 左右。重點市場的品類增長率為 5%。企業市場的品類增長率為 7%。因此,在全球範圍內,這是一個強勁的 5%。這是相當一致的。企業市場以 7% 的速度增長超過 3、6 和 12。在過去的 3、6 和 12 個月中,焦點市場的漲幅在 4% 到 5% 之間。因此,如果有的話,在最近的閱讀中,我們已經看到類別增長的加強。

  • We're also pleased with the fact that we see P&G leading and disproportionately contributing to category growth in most of the markets we're competing in. We are innovation -- and we are leading innovation and thereby driving category growth and participating in that category growth via share growth. So overall, we feel good about the level of category growth. We're seeing slight acceleration across the period. P&G contributing via our strategy of driving market growth via superiority investment and innovation.

    我們也很高興看到寶潔在我們競爭的大多數市場中領先並為類別增長做出了不成比例的貢獻。我們是創新的——我們正在引領創新,從而推動類別增長並參與該類別通過份額增長實現增長。所以總的來說,我們對品類增長的水平感覺很好。我們看到在此期間略有加速。寶潔通過我們通過優勢投資和創新推動市場增長的戰略做出貢獻。

  • And that certainly is benefiting our growth and is in line with our growth model we want to drive because the only way to sustainably grow at these level's by driving market growth, and then participating in that growth via shared growth.

    這當然有利於我們的增長,並且符合我們想要推動的增長模式,因為只有通過推動市場增長,然後通過共享增長參與增長,才能在這些水平上實現可持續增長。

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. Market growth is something that doesn't happen to us. We need to positively impact it ourselves, which is exactly what Andre just said. And that's what we're trying to do through our strategy. I would also say, Kevin, that if you look at the last quarter, there are several negatives within the quarter from a top line standpoint, several challenges that we've been working against. We've talked about China, our second-largest market, down mid singles. We've talked about the unfortunate situation in Russia and the Ukraine.

    是的。市場增長不會發生在我們身上。我們需要自己積極影響它,這正是安德烈剛才所說的。這就是我們試圖通過我們的戰略來做的事情。我還要說,凱文,如果你看看上個季度,從頂線的角度來看,這個季度有幾個負面因素,我們一直在努力應對幾個挑戰。我們談到了中國,我們的第二大市場,中單。我們已經談到了俄羅斯和烏克蘭的不幸局勢。

  • One thing we haven't talked about, except indirectly, is that we're still racing to catch up with demand in our largest market, the U.S. But we're not fully supplying the market's demand. And all of those, hopefully, over time or some of them, at least, offer even additional upside as they reverse themselves.

    除了間接地,我們還沒有談到的一件事是,我們仍在競相趕上我們最大市場美國的需求,但我們並沒有完全滿足市場的需求。所有這些,希望隨著時間的推移,或者至少其中一些,在它們逆轉自身時提供更多的上行空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

    您的下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James 的對話。

  • Olivia Tong Cheang - Research Analyst

    Olivia Tong Cheang - Research Analyst

  • Great. Just a little bit of a follow-up there. Could you just talk a little bit about where the supply constraints are most acute and where you're starting to see potentially some more capacity coming back across the category, particularly amongst private label players?

    偉大的。只是有一點點跟進。您能否談談供應限制最嚴重的地方,以及您開始看到該類別中可能有更多產能回歸的地方,尤其是在自有品牌廠商中?

  • You mentioned pricing in Feminine Care, Home Care, Oral Care. Can you talk about -- a little bit about your decision as you consider future rounds of price increases? And what categories you could potentially -- how you think about what categories you could potentially move on further?

    您提到了女性護理、家庭護理、口腔護理的定價。在考慮未來幾輪價格上漲時,您能談談您的決定嗎?以及您可以潛在的類別 - 您如何看待您可以進一步發展的類別?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • All right, Olivia. Supply constraints -- maybe to start at the global level, supply constraints are only present in every potential bucket that you can think through. Being able to source raw and packed materials is still difficult in sufficient quantities. Getting raw and packed materials to the places we need to get them to continues to be costly and highly volatile.

    好吧,奧利維亞。供應限制——也許從全球層面開始,供應限制只存在於您可以考慮的每個潛在桶中。能夠採購足夠數量的原材料和包裝材料仍然很困難。將原材料和包裝材料運送到我們需要運送的地方仍然是昂貴且高度不穩定的。

  • Labor availability is certainly a stretch, not for P&G directly, but more for our supplier base. And then getting finished product out to our retailers by being able to actually ship with truck availability in the U.S., for example, is difficult.

    勞動力供應肯定是一個延伸,不是直接對寶潔來說,而是對我們的供應商群來說更多。例如,通過能夠在美國使用卡車實際發貨,將成品交付給我們的零售商是很困難的。

  • So it's across all aspects of the supply chain. We are making progress. Our on-shelf availability continues to be stable at around 93%, 94% even as we grow at these levels that we are happy to report we're growing at in Q3 and fiscal year-to-date. We have more and more categories coming off managed supply in the U.S. over the next 2 months. So we are carefully working with our retail partners to ensure that we do this in the right way to ensure best service and best on-shelf availability with our retail partners. And we're making progress.

    因此,它涉及供應鏈的各個方面。我們正在取得進展。我們的上架可用性繼續穩定在 93% 左右,即使我們在這些水平上增長,我們很高興地報告我們在第三季度和本財年迄今為止的增長水平。在接下來的 2 個月裡,我們有越來越多的類別在美國脫離託管供應。因此,我們正在與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作,以確保我們以正確的方式做到這一點,以確保我們的零售合作夥伴提供最佳服務和最佳貨架可用性。我們正在取得進展。

  • Heavy -- the most investment in terms of capacity will be in our North America and European markets to ensure that we have sufficient capacity to keep up with increased demand we've seen. Those investments will take hold over the next 2 years. But we expect to be in a better situation over the next, call it, 3 to 6 months, specifically in the U.S. moving out of managed supply.

    重型——就產能而言,最大的投資將是我們的北美和歐洲市場,以確保我們有足夠的產能來跟上我們所看到的不斷增長的需求。這些投資將在未來兩年內生效。但我們預計接下來的情況會更好,稱之為 3 到 6 個月,特別是在美國退出管理供應的情況下。

  • There is no -- to your second part of the question on pricing. I -- there is no formula-based approach to pricing in any of these categories. So we're carefully watching, number one, consumer behavior and the strength of our superiority relative to the market. We are looking at the cost pressures and cost headwinds that we are seeing. And you will have noticed that in our paper categories in Fem Care, in Baby Care, in Family Care and in our Fabric & Home Care categories, that's where we see the biggest impact from commodity cost increases, transportation warehouse but also foreign exchange impacts.

    關於定價問題的第二部分沒有。我——在任何這些類別中都沒有基於公式的定價方法。因此,我們正在仔細觀察,第一,消費者行為以及我們相對於市場的優勢強度。我們正在研究我們所看到的成本壓力和成本逆風。您會注意到,在我們的女性護理、嬰兒護理、家庭護理以及織物和家庭護理類別的紙張類別中,我們看到商品成本增加、運輸倉庫以及外匯影響的影響最大。

  • So the impacts are bigger. There is superiority, and then it becomes a matter of do we have the right innovation available? Or do we feel that it is right at this point in time to recover via pricing versus leveraging productivity and the balance between those 3 elements as we've talked before. So I wouldn't say there's any formulaic approach. But certainly, Fabric & Home Care and the paper categories are most exposed to the cost pressures. So the combination of all 3 elements needs to play out more aggressively in those categories than maybe in some others. Jon, anything you want to add?

    所以影響更大。有優勢,然後就變成了我們是否有正確的創新可用的問題?或者我們是否認為此時通過定價與利用生產力以及我們之前談到的這三個要素之間的平衡來恢復是正確的。所以我不會說有任何公式化的方法。但可以肯定的是,織物和家居護理以及紙張類別最容易受到成本壓力的影響。因此,所有 3 個元素的組合需要在這些類別中比在其他一些類別中更積極地發揮作用。喬恩,你想補充什麼嗎?

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • No, I think you've covered it, and Olivia, first of all, it's great to hear your voice again. And obviously, we can't provide any more granularity than Andre already has in terms of where price -- future price increases would occur. That's not something that's legally permissible.

    不,我想你已經報導過了,奧利維亞,首先,很高興再次聽到你的聲音。顯然,在價格方面,我們無法提供比安德烈已經擁有的更多的粒度——未來價格上漲會發生。這不是法律允許的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question will come from the line of Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

    您的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的溫迪·尼科爾森 (Wendy Nicholson)。

  • Wendy Caroline Nicholson - MD & Head of Global Consumer Staples Research

    Wendy Caroline Nicholson - MD & Head of Global Consumer Staples Research

  • I guess not to beat a dead horse, but just to follow up on that point. As you think about the priority for the P&L, in those categories, I mean, I look at paper, I look at laundry or fabric. Those are categories where there is just to start with, maybe more competition, maybe less brand loyalty, maybe a little bit more private label just to start with, even though private label may not be gaining share yet. And so I'm wondering if your priority is to offset commodity headwinds as much as you possibly can to preserve gross margin? Or is it to preserve market share at this point?

    我想不是為了打敗一匹死馬,而是為了跟進這一點。當您考慮損益表的優先級時,在這些類別中,我的意思是,我查看紙張,查看衣物或織物。這些是剛開始的類別,可能會有更多的競爭,可能會減少品牌忠誠度,可能會增加一點自有品牌,儘管自有品牌可能還沒有獲得份額。所以我想知道您的首要任務是否是盡可能多地抵消商品逆風以保持毛利率?還是在這一點上保持市場份額?

  • And then relatedly, you haven't really talked that much about currency and what you're doing in some of the bigger emerging markets, not even just emerging markets, but Japan, for example, where currency is a significant headwind. Are you adopting a different stance with regard to taking prices to offset currency headwinds? And are you seeing any differences in elasticity maybe in some of those emerging markets?

    然後與此相關的是,您並沒有真正談論貨幣以及您在一些較大的新興市場中所做的事情,甚至不僅僅是新興市場,還有日本,例如,貨幣是一個重大逆風。在採取價格抵消貨幣逆風方面,您是否採取了不同的立場?您是否發現其中一些新興市場的彈性存在差異?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Okay. In terms of priority, our priority remains a reasonable recovery time on the dollar impact of commodities, foreign exchange and T&W headwinds across all categories. We will do this in a way that provides value to the consumer, provides a superior proposition to the consumer by combining it with innovation.

    好的。就優先事項而言,我們的優先事項仍然是對所有類別的商品、外彙和 T&W 逆風的美元影響的合理恢復時間。我們將以一種為消費者提供價值的方式做到這一點,通過將其與創新相結合,為消費者提供優越的主張。

  • There is no time line for us that forces us to recover gross margin over a certain period of time. We want to return to margin expansion, and we will. Our balanced growth model requires us to drive top line, bottom line but also reasonable margin expansion.

    我們沒有時間線迫使我們在一段時間內恢復毛利率。我們想恢復利潤率擴張,我們會的。我們的平衡增長模式要求我們推動收入、利潤以及合理的利潤率擴張。

  • So there is continued commitment to return to that point, but we will do it in a way that provides the right value to the consumer in every brand in every market at any given point in time, so we can serve consumers in the best way possible and maintain business momentum. To your second question on foreign exchange rate pricing. Across markets, foreign exchange rate pricing is a reality we're dealing with every day, we've been dealing with for years. Nothing different to report in terms of elasticities.

    因此,我們將繼續致力於回到這一點,但我們將以在任何給定時間點為每個市場的每個品牌的消費者提供正確價值的方式做到這一點,以便我們能夠以最好的方式為消費者服務並保持業務發展勢頭。關於外匯定價的第二個問題。在整個市場中,外匯定價是我們每天都在處理的現實,我們已經處理了多年。在彈性方面沒有什麼不同的報告。

  • It's being executed in some markets, more pronounced. You've seen us taking significant price increases, for example, in Turkey, significant price increases in Argentina. So those are being executed. The organizations know very well how to do those, and they are baked in our forecast and guidance.

    它正在一些市場上執行,更為明顯。您已經看到我們大幅提價,例如在土耳其,在阿根廷大幅提價。所以那些正在被執行。這些組織非常了解如何做到這一點,並且它們在我們的預測和指導中得到了體現。

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • So just one other point, Wendy. You asked -- the question that you asked is the question that we get asked by the organization every day, which is, "Which of these matters most, essentially top line and continued share progression or bottom line and earnings recovery?" And the answer always is both. It's Andre's balanced point.

    還有一點,溫迪。你問過——你問的問題是我們每天都被組織問到的問題,即“這些最重要的是,主要是收入和持續的股票增長還是利潤和盈利復甦?”答案總是兩者兼而有之。這是安德烈的平衡點。

  • We need to do both or we get out of balance, and the wheels come off. So we need to continue, and we'll continue to invest in top line momentum as we recover the commodity costs through a combination of pricing, productivity, et cetera. So that's -- it's both.

    我們需要兩者都做,否則我們會失去平衡,車輪就會脫落。所以我們需要繼續,我們將繼續投資於頂線動力,因為我們通過定價、生產力等的組合來收回商品成本。所以這就是——兩者兼而有之。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • All right. The next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

    好的。下一個問題來自於 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

  • Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

    Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

  • Yes. I wanted to ask a different slant to the premiumization and trade-down question. Not necessarily on trade down, but just slowing momentum of premiumization because during the pandemic, you had a lot of low-income consumers with all that extra stimulus money engaging more in premium price tiers.

    是的。我想對高端化和折價問題提出不同的看法。不一定是貿易下降,而只是高端化的勢頭放緩,因為在大流行期間,你有很多低收入消費者,所有這些額外的刺激資金更多地參與了高端價格層。

  • So I was just curious on your observations on that. Kind of how do you think that's going to manifest in terms of that particular income strata and how they're behaving with food and gas inflation the way it is?

    所以我只是好奇你對此的看法。你認為這將如何體現在特定的收入階層以及他們如何應對食品和天然氣通脹?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes. Nik, look, we're not seeing it. We've seen consumers trade into P&G brands and trade up within the P&G brand portfolio throughout the pandemic. Every quarter this fiscal year, we've seen consumers continue to trade up within the P&G brand portfolio into higher premium propositions across most categories.

    是的。尼克,看,我們沒有看到它。在整個大流行期間,我們已經看到消費者交易寶潔品牌並在寶潔品牌組合中進行交易。本財年的每個季度,我們都看到消費者在寶潔品牌組合中繼續升級,在大多數類別中購買更高的溢價主張。

  • That's the mix effect you've seen on the gross margin and the positive mix effect on sales. So we continue to see consumers stay within the P&G portfolio and many consumers actually trading up within the P&G portfolio as they see the benefit of those higher premium propositions. As we've said before, we don't take that for granted. We don't assume that what we're seeing to date is necessarily an indication of what will happen in the future. We are very well aware that consumers might end up looking at budget constraints. Where we see, for example, private label losses reducing, we continue to see P&G growth. So even private label coming back so far is not impacting P&G's ability to grow within those markets or within those market category combinations.

    這就是您看到的對毛利率的混合效應和對銷售的積極混合效應。因此,我們繼續看到消費者留在寶潔產品組合中,許多消費者實際上在寶潔產品組合中進行交易,因為他們看到了這些更高溢價主張的好處。正如我們之前所說,我們並不認為這是理所當然的。我們並不認為我們迄今為止所看到的必然預示著未來會發生什麼。我們非常清楚,消費者最終可能會考慮預算限制。例如,在我們看到自有品牌損失減少的地方,我們繼續看到寶潔的增長。因此,即使是迄今為止回歸的自有品牌也不會影響寶潔在這些市場或這些市場類別組合中的增長能力。

  • Our best defense to serve the consumer in a more budget constrained environment, other point we've talked through from the portfolio focus that we're operating to superiority to value plays, cash outlay choices, price ladder choices, distribution across our channels. So I come back to those elements that we control. That will serve us well, I believe, even for consumers that are more budget constrained and moving for choices.

    我們在預算更加受限的環境中為消費者提供服務的最佳防禦,從我們正在運營的投資組合重點到價值遊戲的優勢、現金支出選擇、價格階梯選擇、跨渠道分銷,我們已經討論過其他一點。所以我回到我們控制的那些元素。我相信,即使對於預算更有限、更傾向於選擇的消費者,這也會為我們服務。

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • There are a lot of mileage benefits in some of the higher-priced products that we need to proactively communicate, as Andre mentioned earlier. That -- the assumption that just because something is higher priced, it costs me more per job is not a valid assumption, and we have to help people understand that.

    正如安德烈前面提到的,我們需要主動溝通的一些高價產品有很多里程收益。那——僅僅因為某樣東西價格更高,我每份工作的成本更高的假設不是一個有效的假設,我們必須幫助人們理解這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • All right. Your next question will come from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

    好的。您的下一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

  • Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

    Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a question about the Personal Health Care business. Organic growth over 30%, certainly impressive. I appreciate there's a dynamic here where there's some recovery from like basically a nonexisting cold, flu. But also conscious that this is one of those categories where you're particularly focused, and there's been some innovation.

    我想問一個關於個人保健業務的問題。有機增長超過 30%,當然令人印象深刻。我很欣賞這裡的動態,從基本上不存在的感冒,流感中恢復過來。但也要意識到這是您特別關注的類別之一,並且有一些創新。

  • I wonder if you can just comment on how much of the strength in the business was just recovery versus things you're doing a bit more offensively that have a bit more legs long term? And just connected to that, fiscal Q4 implied organic sales guidance is for strength but deceleration on a 2-year stack. And I wonder if you're baking in any normalization there or if there's other puts and takes that we should keep in mind?

    我想知道你是否可以評論一下業務中的力量有多少只是恢復,而不是你正在做的更具進攻性的事情長期有更多的腿?與此相關的是,第四財季暗示的有機銷售指導是為了加強,但在 2 年的堆棧中減速。我想知道你是否在那裡進行任何標準化,或者是否還有其他我們應該記住的看跌期權?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • All right. Thanks, Chris. PHC had a fabulous quarter, as we point out. Part of that certainly is the stronger cold, cough and flu season. It's 57% stronger in our estimation than last year's season, which was abnormally low driven by the mask mandates and everything else going on. A slightly stronger season than average by about 4%. But importantly, North America Vicks, for example, was able to outpace that season growth, plus 123% growth versus the season, which drove about 1.9 share points over the period. So within respiratory, season recovery is certainly a big point, but mix growing ahead of the season recovery and building share. The growth is also broader than just respiratory. Digestive organic sales are up mid-teens, and fleet is up nearly 30%. So the breadth of the portfolio is performing even beyond just the season recovery. So we continue to be very pleased with the results of the PHC portfolio and certainly see significant future runway there.

    好的。謝謝,克里斯。正如我們所指出的,PHC 的季度業績非常好。部分原因當然是感冒、咳嗽和流感季節更加嚴重。在我們的估計中,它比去年的季節高出 57%,而去年的季節由於口罩要求和其他一切發生而異常低。比平均水平略強約 4% 的季節。但重要的是,例如,北美 Vicks 能夠超過該季節的增長,與該季節相比增長了 123%,在此期間推動了約 1.9 個份額點。因此,在呼吸系統領域,季節恢復當然是一個重點,但在季節恢復之前混合增長並建立份額。增長也比呼吸更廣泛。消化有機銷售額增長了十幾歲,船隊增長了近 30%。因此,投資組合的廣度甚至超出了季節恢復的範圍。因此,我們繼續對 PHC 產品組合的結果感到非常滿意,並且肯定會在那裡看到重要的未來跑道。

  • On quarter 4 sales guidance. The only thing I would say is as we mentioned before, we do not assume the favorable price elasticities to hold. In our forecasting, we assume price elasticities to return to normal levels that we've seen historically. That's the only thing I'll let you know. And the rest, I think, is fairly clear.

    第 4 季度銷售指導。我唯一想說的是,正如我們之前提到的,我們不假設持有有利的價格彈性。在我們的預測中,我們假設價格彈性恢復到我們歷史上看到的正常水平。這是我唯一要告訴你的。其餘的,我認為,是相當清楚的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question will come from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

    下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

  • Kaumil S. Gajrawala - MD & Research Analyst

    Kaumil S. Gajrawala - MD & Research Analyst

  • I'd like to maybe just follow up on a comment from earlier on sequential gross margin improvement. Was that a -- just a general comment on something that you expect over time? Or are you kind of indicating that gross margins we see today are trough margins in 4Q, and as we get into the beginning of the next fiscal year is when we'll start to see it?

    我想也許只是跟進早些時候關於連續毛利率改善的評論。那是否只是對您期望隨著時間的推移而做出的一般性評論?或者你是在暗示我們今天看到的毛利率是第四季度的低谷,當我們進入下一個財政年度開始時,我們什麼時候會開始看到它?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • General comment over time, Kaumil. We're not forecasting gross margin or gross margin guidance here. Too many moving pieces. But over time, we remain committed to building gross margin as part of the balanced growth model.

    隨著時間的推移一般性評論,Kaumil。我們在這裡不預測毛利率或毛利率指導。移動的部分太多了。但隨著時間的推移,我們仍然致力於將毛利率作為平衡增長模式的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

    下一個問題來自 Mark Astrachan 和 Stifel。

  • Mark Stiefel Astrachan - MD

    Mark Stiefel Astrachan - MD

  • I wanted to ask specifically a bit more about Beauty. So volume's negative. I guess I was curious, how much of it is category shift? It seems a bit away from Skin Care, given pandemic effect there into some more discretionary categories. How much is market share challenges for SK-II around Asia and China specifically? And how do you think about how much of what I just said could be transitory versus needing more change from your standpoint to improve trends?

    我想具體問一些關於美的問題。所以成交量是負數。我想我很好奇,有多少是類別轉移?考慮到流行病的影響,它似乎有點遠離皮膚護理。 SK-II 在亞洲和中國的市場份額挑戰具體有多大?你如何看待我剛才所說的有多少可能是暫時的,而不是從你的角度來看需要更多的改變來改善趨勢?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Mark. We're very confident in the Beauty portfolio. If you look at the performance of this portfolio over the past 5 years, it's been just outstanding, right?

    是的。謝謝,馬克。我們對美容產品組合非常有信心。如果你看看這個投資組合在過去 5 年的表現,它非常出色,對吧?

  • The core portfolio has grown sales more than $3 billion over the past 5 years, profits more than $1 billion, significant shareholder value creation and 26 quarters of uninterrupted growth. So the core portfolio has been performing extremely well.

    在過去 5 年中,核心產品組合的銷售額增長超過 30 億美元,利潤超過 10 億美元,創造了巨大的股東價值和 26 個季度的不間斷增長。因此,核心投資組合的表現非常出色。

  • And as you say, there are a number of headwinds that we see as temporary. China and the dynamics in China, certainly being one of those significant dynamics, which is impacting the broader Hair Care and Skin Care portfolio but also the broader impact on SK-II as it comes to the travel retail shutdown during the COVID period. And the impact of China on the SK-II consumption with department stores being closed down and even some of the online business being hampered.

    正如你所說,有一些我們認為是暫時的不利因素。中國和中國的動態,當然是其中重要的動態之一,它正在影響更廣泛的護髮和護膚產品組合,但也對 SK-II 產生更廣泛的影響,因為它涉及 COVID 期間的旅遊零售關閉。以及中國對SK-II消費的影響,百貨公司關閉,甚至部分在線業務受到阻礙。

  • So there are a number of temporary effects that we see. We -- you have seen us announce a few portfolio additions, acquisitions over the past months that are focused on the premium and super premium segments in the category. We believe that's a growth opportunity beyond the core portfolio in specialty channels. So we've proven that strategy with previous acquisitions like First Aid Beauty. And so we want to build out the portfolio in the premium and super premium segment in addition to restrengthening the core.

    因此,我們看到了許多暫時的影響。我們 - 你已經看到我們在過去幾個月宣布了一些投資組合的增加和收購,這些投資集中在該類別的高端和超高端細分市場。我們相信這是一個超越專業渠道核心產品組合的增長機會。因此,我們已經通過 First Aid Beauty 等之前的收購證明了這一策略。因此,除了加強核心業務之外,我們還希望在高端和超高端領域建立投資組合。

  • So there's certainly work to do to address the opportunities in China on the core business, rebuild strength and momentum on SK-II and further help our business to serve premium and super premium consumers and specialty channels in the U.S. and outside the U.S. But we're very confident in the core focused portfolio and some targeted additions via acquisition that we tucked in, which set us up well for future growth in the Beauty category.

    因此,在核心業務上把握中國機遇,重建 SK-II 的實力和勢頭,並進一步幫助我們的業務為美國和美國以外的優質和超優質消費者和專業渠道提供服務,當然還有工作要做。但我們'我們對核心集中的投資組合和通過收購進行的一些有針對性的補充非常有信心,這為我們在美容類別的未來增長奠定了良好的基礎。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question comes from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

  • Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

    Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

  • So in the release, there were a few comments around lapping pandemic-related consumption. And I think you called out appliances and cleaning specifically. I just would be curious, when you look at performance in those categories, how does the recent performance compare versus your expectations?

    因此,在發布中,圍繞與大流行相關的消費進行了一些評論。而且我認為你特別提到了電器和清潔。我只是好奇,當您查看這些類別的表現時,最近的表現與您的預期相比如何?

  • I guess what I'm trying to understand is, are you seeing a normalization that is in line with your expectations in some of those categories that saw significant growth over the past couple of years? Or has demand held up better or been worse than you would have anticipated?

    我想我想了解的是,在過去幾年顯著增長的某些類別中,您是否看到了符合您預期的正常化?還是需求比您預期的更好或更差?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes, I can start, Peter, and then maybe Jon wants to add a few points here. But overall consumption is holding up, as I mentioned. Market growth, 5% in focus markets, 7% in enterprise markets. That's certainly an indication that overall consumption in all categories is holding up well.

    是的,我可以開始,Peter,然後 Jon 想在這裡補充幾點。但正如我所提到的,整體消費正在保持。市場增長,重點市場 5%,企業市場 7%。這無疑表明所有類別的整體消費都保持良好。

  • There are some natural -- not natural, but logical switches. So when we think about, for example, our Grooming business, the Appliances business has experienced significant growth during the pandemic as more and more jobs that were done in salons and barbershops moved in-house. So folks -- people bought these appliances, experienced the fact that they can do the job themselves, and they continue to do so.

    有一些自然的——不是自然的,而是邏輯的開關。因此,當我們考慮例如我們的美容業務時,隨著越來越多在沙龍和理髮店完成的工作轉移到內部,電器業務在大流行期間經歷了顯著增長。所以人們——人們購買了這些電器,體驗到他們可以自己完成這項工作,並且他們繼續這樣做。

  • But once that need is satisfied, appliances sees a decline versus that peak in terms of incremental job growth and incremental overall growth. At the same time, there's a natural hedge within the Grooming portfolio. So blades and razors were under pressure as more people worked from home and stayed at home. With reopening, that part of the category resumed growth. So there's a hedge component within Grooming, for example.

    但是,一旦滿足了這一需求,就增量就業增長和增量整體增長而言,電器將出現相對於峰值的下降。與此同時,Grooming 投資組合中存在自然對沖。因此,隨著越來越多的人在家工作並呆在家裡,刀片和剃須刀承受著壓力。隨著重新開放,該類別的這一部分恢復了增長。例如,在 Grooming 中有一個對沖組件。

  • Within anything that is health and hygiene-related, I think consumers continue to put more emphasis on jobs to be done. They spend more time at home. So we continue to see our categories to benefit from both effects . Paper towel consumption continues to be increased by more than 10%. We'll see where bath tissue ends up once supply is unconstrained, but more time at Home certainly would speak to more in-home consumption versus away-from-home consumption.

    在任何與健康和衛生相關的事情中,我認為消費者繼續更加重視要完成的工作。他們花更多的時間在家裡。所以我們繼續看到我們的品類從這兩種效應中受益。紙巾消費量繼續增長10%以上。一旦供應不受限制,我們將看到浴巾紙的最終用途,但更多的在家時間肯定會說明更多的家庭消費而不是離家消費。

  • The only part where we saw a little bit of a decline was anything that has to do with household -- surface disinfection, surface cleaning. That's a relatively smaller part of our portfolio. But as consumers get more used to the right balance there, we saw a little bit of a decline. But overall, all categories still benefiting from more time at home and higher focus on health and hygiene and certainly Beauty and Personal Care-related categories benefiting from reopening.

    我們看到的唯一下降的部分是與家庭有關的任何事情——表面消毒、表面清潔。這是我們投資組合中相對較小的一部分。但隨著消費者越來越習慣那裡的正確平衡,我們看到了一點點下降。但總體而言,所有類別仍然受益於更多的在家時間和對健康和衛生的更高關注,當然美容和個人護理相關類別也受益於重新開放。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

  • Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD

    Andrea Faria Teixeira - MD

  • I was hoping if you can please comment on the Baby, Fem Care and Family Care. Seems that you continue to regain share in the U.S. and also potentially in China despite the challenges there. And similar to this question, you had an impressive growth in the cold and flu brand franchises. But you start to lap those comps there. So do you think the growth is still sustainable with the innovation you've made in other franchises in health care?

    我希望您能對嬰兒、女性護理和家庭護理髮表評論。儘管存在挑戰,您似乎繼續在美國和中國重新獲得份額。與這個問題類似,您在感冒和流感品牌特許經營方面取得了令人矚目的增長。但是你開始在那裡搭上那些比賽。那麼,您認為您在其他醫療保健特許經營權中所做的創新仍然是可持續的增長嗎?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • Yes. Thanks, Andrea. So Baby Care share is improving significantly in Europe and in North America driven by major innovation that was launched in the market, both in Europe and in North America. We will continue to build on that share momentum. We will continue to drive superiority via incremental innovation, investment in brand communication, go-to-market execution.

    是的。謝謝,安德里亞。因此,在歐洲和北美市場推出的重大創新推動下,嬰兒護理產品在歐洲和北美的份額正在顯著提高。我們將繼續在這種共享勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。我們將繼續通過漸進式創新、對品牌傳播的投資、進入市場的執行來推動優勢。

  • We've also been able to enter some new parts and grow some new segments within the Baby Care category. When you think about Ninjamas launches, for example, in North America, that's a category that has been relatively quiet. It serves children between 5 and 12 with all the night bed-wetting issues. And reentering that category with a creative and relevant proposition allowed us to grow the category mid-teens. And at the same time, build an 8% -- 8% to 9% share position within the category.

    我們還能夠進入嬰兒護理類別中的一些新部分並發展一些新細分市場。例如,當您考慮在北美推出 Ninjamas 時,這是一個相對安靜的類別。它為 5 至 12 歲的兒童提供所有夜間尿床問題。並以具有創造性和相關性的主張重新進入該類別,使我們能夠在青少年中發展該類別。同時,在該類別中建立 8% - 8% 至 9% 的份額。

  • We continue to build share in pants. Pants is a trade-up category in Europe and an opportunity in North America. That allows us to grow our position as well. So broad innovation in terms of true product innovation but also new jobs to be done and communication. Fem Care, we are seeing big success in both adult incontinence, but also in the most premium propositions in Fem Care. The biggest growth, for example, in Fem Care pads in North America is driven by Infinity, our most premium proposition, which is a unique proposition from P&G form-based pad, delivering superior comfort and absorbency.

    我們繼續在褲子中建立份額。褲子在歐洲是一個以舊換新的類別,在北美是一個機會。這也使我們能夠擴大我們的地位。就真正的產品創新而言,如此廣泛的創新,還有要完成的新工作和溝通。 Fem Care,我們在成人失禁和 Fem Care 中最優質的產品中都看到了巨大的成功。例如,北美 Fem Care 護墊的最大增長是由 Infinity 推動的,這是我們最優質的主張,這是寶潔基於形式的護墊的獨特主張,可提供卓越的舒適性和吸收性。

  • Again, same formula. Significantly innovating in relevant ways for the consumer, investment in communication, retail execution, allows us to drive overall market growth and share growth. On cold and flu, I don't have much more to add, Andrea, versus what we said before. We are growing ahead of the segment in terms of respiratory with strong innovation in Vicks. And we are growing the balance of the portfolio in terms of absolute sales growth and share growth, be it sleep or digestive. So overall, we feel there's significant runway left on our PHC portfolio, and it's playing out in the market.

    再次,相同的公式。在消費者相關方式、通信投資、零售執行方面進行重大創新,使我們能夠推動整體市場增長和份額增長。關於感冒和流感,安德里亞,與我們之前所說的相比,我沒有更多要補充的。憑藉 Vicks 的強大創新,我們在呼吸領域處於領先地位。我們正在增加投資組合在絕對銷售增長和份額增長方面的平衡,無論是睡眠還是消化。所以總的來說,我們覺得我們的 PHC 產品組合還有很大的空間,而且它正在市場上發揮作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your final question will come from the line of Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge.

    您的最後一個問題將來自消費者邊緣的 Jonathan Feeney。

  • Jonathan Patrick Feeney - Senior Analyst of Food & HPC, Director of research and Managing Partner

    Jonathan Patrick Feeney - Senior Analyst of Food & HPC, Director of research and Managing Partner

  • I give you a lot of credit. I mean, there hasn't been a lot of discussion about retailer pushback to pricing. And maybe that's just because the results are good overall.

    我給你很大的信任。我的意思是,關於零售商拒絕定價的討論並不多。也許這只是因為總體上結果很好。

  • But just looking at the U.S. market, why is it that your relationships with retailers seem so good that elasticities are better? It's really a consumer level discussion. And do you expect that to continue? Can you give me any color around why that particular -- is it maybe just simply that they're short product, and there's more demand versus supply, so you're kind of in the driver's seat? What allowed this pretty good series of very good relationships to emerge? And what the -- how sustainable do you think that proves if we need another round of significant pricing second half of the year?

    但是看看美國市場,為什麼你與零售商的關係看起來那麼好,以至於彈性更好?這真的是一個消費者層面的討論。你希望這種情況繼續下去嗎?你能告訴我為什麼會這樣嗎?可能只是因為它們是短產品,而且需求與供應相比更多,所以你有點坐在駕駛座上?是什麼讓這一系列非常好的關係出現了?如果我們需要在今年下半年進行另一輪重要的定價,你認為這能證明什麼是可持續的?

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • I'll start, and I'm sure Jon has a few points to add here. But generally, discussions with retailers work better if your business comes from a position of strength. Consumers are looking for your propositions. Velocity at shelf is strong. You have innovation programs that are credible and tangible and meaningful for consumers.

    我會開始,我相信 Jon 有幾點要補充。但一般來說,如果您的業務來自實力地位,與零售商的討論會更有效。消費者正在尋找您的建議。貨架上的速度很強。您擁有對消費者而言可信、切實且有意義的創新計劃。

  • You have in-store programs that are meaningful for retailers and consumers. You have an ability to communicate and support the advertising, both in digital as well as in mass advertising. And all of those things hold true as we entered this commodity inflation cycle.

    您擁有對零售商和消費者有意義的店內計劃。您有能力在數字廣告和大眾廣告中溝通和支持廣告。當我們進入這個商品通脹週期時,所有這些事情都成立。

  • P&G came from a relatively strong position in terms of superiority. We continue to invest in innovation. Products on shelf, we're doing well. And that sets up a good discussion with retailers about future growth potential, the need for pricing, which is very clear, given the inflation cycle and the reality that it's broad-based within multiple industries.

    寶潔在優勢方面處於相對強勢的地位。我們繼續投資於創新。產品上架,我們做得很好。這與零售商就未來增長潛力、定價需求進行了很好的討論,考慮到通貨膨脹週期以及它在多個行業中廣泛存在的現實,這一點非常明確。

  • No guarantee that, that will continue. It will also -- it will always be, as we said before, a very careful balance for us between productivity, innovation and pricing.

    不能保證,這將繼續。正如我們之前所說,它還將始終是我們在生產力、創新和定價之間非常謹慎的平衡。

  • Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

    Jon R. Moeller - President, CEO & Vice Chairman

  • Yes. Our retail partners are also competitors in most cases, with their own label offerings. And because the increases and costs are so significant, they need to be able, in most cases, obviously, entirely at their discretion. But they need to be generally able to raise pricing on their own brands.

    是的。在大多數情況下,我們的零售合作夥伴也是競爭對手,擁有自己的標籤產品。而且由於增加和成本如此之大,在大多數情況下,顯然,他們需要能夠完全由他們自行決定。但他們通常需要能夠提高自有品牌的定價。

  • And when that's true, that becomes less of an issue, not a nonissue, but less of an issue for us. And I think the biggest change that's occurred over the last several years in our dialogue has been a more deliberate and overfocus on our part on market growth and on being -- and a commitment to be a disproportionate contributor to market growth.

    如果這是真的,那對我們來說就不再是一個問題,不是一個非問題,而是一個不那麼重要的問題。而且我認為過去幾年我們對話中發生的最大變化是更加深思熟慮並過度關注我們對市場增長和存在的部分 - 以及承諾成為市場增長的不成比例的貢獻者。

  • At the end of the day, a retail partner doesn't care what our share is. What they care about is what their sales are and are they growing or not. And we need to be a source of that growth. And when we do that dependably and reliably, as Andre said, it changes the nature of the conversation, and that becomes the focus of the conversation as opposed to other things. We have an opportunity in better serving our retail partners with supply as we've talked about several times, and we're working to address that. That's important in terms of continuing to serve them effectively. But that contribution to market growth sustainably and dependently changes world.

    歸根結底,零售合作夥伴並不關心我們的份額是多少。他們關心的是他們的銷售額是多少,他們是否在增長。我們需要成為這種增長的源泉。正如安德烈所說,當我們可靠而可靠地做到這一點時,它會改變對話的性質,這將成為對話的焦點,而不是其他事情。正如我們多次談到的那樣,我們有機會更好地為我們的零售合作夥伴提供供應,我們正在努力解決這個問題。這對於繼續有效地為他們服務很重要。但這種對市場增長的貢獻持續且依賴地改變了世界。

  • Andre Schulten - CFO

    Andre Schulten - CFO

  • All right. I think that concludes the call. Thank you for spending time with us today. John Chevalier and I will be available all day if you have any other questions, so please feel free to call. You know where to find us. Have a wonderful rest of the day.

    好的。我認為這結束了通話。感謝您今天與我們共度時光。如果您有任何其他問題,John Chevalier 和我將全天為您服務,請隨時致電。你知道在哪裡可以找到我們。度過美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。