寶潔 (PG) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Procter & Gamble's Quarter End Conference Call. Today's event is being recorded for replay.

早安，歡迎參加寶潔公司季度末電話會議。本次會議將進行錄音，以便回放。

This discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections.

本次討論將包含一些前瞻性陳述。如果您查閱寶潔公司最新的10-K、10-Q和8-K報告，您會看到其中討論了可能導致公司實際業績與這些預測有重大差異的因素。

As required by Regulation G, Procter & Gamble needs to make you aware that during the discussion, the company will make a number of references to non-GAAP and other financial measures. Procter & Gamble believes these measures provide investors with useful perspective on underlying business trends and has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

根據G條例的要求，寶潔公司特此告知各位，在本次討論中，公司將多次提及非GAAP財務指標及其他財務指標。寶潔公司認為，這些指標能夠幫助投資人更了解公司業務的潛在趨勢，並已在其投資人關係網站www.pginvestor.com上發布了完整的非GAAP財務指標調節表。

Now I will turn the call over to P&G's Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten.

現在我將把電話交給寶潔公司的財務長安德烈‧舒爾滕。

Good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Jon Moeller, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Chevalier, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. We're going to keep our prepared remarks brief and then turn straight to your questions.

各位早安。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長喬恩·莫勒先生，以及高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管約翰·謝瓦利埃先生。我們將簡要發言，然後直接進入問答環節。

Q2 was a strong quarter, very strong top line growth, sequential earnings progress in the face of significant cost headwinds, continued strong cash productivity. Our progress enables us to confirm fiscal year EPS guidance while increasing our estimates for top line growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners.

第二季業績表現強勁，營收成長尤為顯著，儘管面臨巨大的成本壓力，獲利仍環比成長，現金流保持強勁。基於上述進展，我們確認本財年每股收益預期，同時上調營收成長、現金流量和股東現金回報的預期。

Organic sales grew more than 6%, volume contributed 3 points of sales growth, pricing added 3 points as September, October price increases flow through and as year-on-year promotion comparisons normalize. Mix was neutral for the quarter.

有機銷售額成長超過6%，銷售貢獻了3個百分點的銷售成長，價格因素貢獻了3個百分點，這主要得益於9月和10月的價格上漲以及同比促銷活動的正常化。本季產品組合保持中性。

These strong company results are grounded in broad-based category and geographic strength. Each of the 10 product categories grew or held organic sales in the quarter. Personal Health Care grew 20%; Fabric Care and Feminine Care were up double digits; Baby Care, up high singles; Grooming grew mid-singles. Home Care, Oral Care, Hair Care and Skin and Personal Care each grew low single digits. Family Care organic sales were in line with prior year.

本公司強勁的業績得益於其在各個品類和地域的廣泛優勢。本季度，該公司十大產品類別均實現了有機成長或維持穩定。個人健康護理成長20%；織物護理和女性護理產品實現了兩位數增長；嬰兒護理產品實現了接近兩位數的增長；男士護理產品實現了中等個位數的增長。居家護理、口腔護理、頭髮護理以及皮膚和個人護理產品均實現了低個位數的成長。家庭護理產品的有機銷售額與去年同期持平。

Focus markets grew 6% and enterprise markets were up 7%. In focus markets, U.S. organic sales were up 9% despite 12% growth in the base period. On a 2-year stack basis, U.S. organic sales are up 21%.

重點市場成長6%，企業市場成長7%。在重點市場中，儘管基期成長率為12%，但美國有機銷售額仍成長了9%。以兩年累計計算，美國有機銷售額成長了21%。

Europe focus markets were up 5%. Greater China organic sales were in line with prior year against a strong 12% base period comp and due to slower market growth in the quarter. In addition, we took proactive steps in the quarter to encourage our network of distributors to reduce inventory levels to reflect short-term consumer demand softness in the market.

歐洲重點市場成長5%。大中華區有機銷售額與去年同期持平，儘管去年同期基數較高（12%），且本季市場成長放緩。此外，本季我們採取了積極措施，鼓勵經銷商降低庫存水平，以應對市場短期內消費者需求疲軟的情況。

Latin America led the growth in enterprise markets, up 15%. Global aggregate market share increased 60 basis points. 38 of our top 50 category country combinations held or grew share for the quarter. Our superiority strategy continues to drive strong market growth and in turn, share growth for P&G. All channel market value in the U.S. categories in which we compete grew nearly 3.5% this quarter. P&G value share continued to grow, up nearly 1.5 points versus same quarter last year, now at 34%.

拉丁美洲引領企業市場成長，成長率達15%。全球整體市佔率成長60個基點。在我們排名前50的品類組合中，有38個品類組合在本季維持或實現了市佔率成長。我們的卓越策略持續推動強勁的市場成長，進而帶動寶潔市場佔有率的成長。本季度，我們在美國所有競爭類別的通路市場價值成長近3.5%。寶潔的市佔率持續成長，較去年同期成長近1.5個百分點，目前達34%。

Importantly, the share growth is broad-based. Nine of 10 product categories grew share over the past 3-, 6- and 12-month periods in the U.S.

重要的是，市場佔有率的成長是普遍的。在美國，過去 3 個月、6 個月和 12 個月期間，10 個產品類別中有 9 個類別的市佔率均有所成長。

Consumers continue to prefer P&G brands and superior performance they provide even as inflation is impacting household budgets. On the bottom line, core earnings per share were $1.66, up 1% versus the prior year. On a currency-neutral basis, core EPS increased 2%.

儘管通膨影響家庭預算，消費者仍偏好寶潔旗下品牌及其卓越的產品表現。淨利方面，核心每股收益為1.66美元，較上年成長1%。以固定匯率計算，核心每股收益成長2%。

Core gross margin decreased 400 basis points, and currency-neutral core gross margin was down 410 basis points. Higher commodity and freight cost impacts combined were a 460 basis points hit to gross margins. Mix was a 140 basis point headwind, mainly from product mix impacts. Productivity savings and pricing each provided partial offsets to the gross margin headwinds.

核心毛利率下降400個基點，以固定匯率計算的核心毛利率下降410個基點。大宗商品和運費上漲合計導致毛利率下降460個基點。產品組合變化也對毛利率造成了140個基點的負面影響，主要來自於產品組合調整。生產效率提升和價格因素在一定程度上抵消了毛利率下降的影響。

Within SG&A, advertising spending increased versus prior year as we continue to invest to communicate the superiority of our brands. However, overall marketing expense as a percentage of sales decreased 80 basis points driven by sales leverage and savings in nonworking marketing costs. Core operating margin decreased 250 basis points. Currency-neutral core operating margin declined 240 basis points. Productivity improvements were 150 basis points help to the quarter. Free cash flow productivity was 106%.

在銷售、一般及行政費用中，廣告支出較前一年增加，因為我們持續加大投入，以更好地宣傳我們品牌的卓越品質。然而，受銷售槓桿效應和非營運行銷成本節約的推動，整體行銷費用佔銷售額的比例下降了80個基點。核心營業利益率下降了250個基點。以固定匯率計算，核心營業利潤率下降了240個基點。生產效率的提升對本季業績起了150個基點的推動作用。自由現金流生產率為106%。

We returned nearly $7 billion of cash to shareowners, approximately $2.2 billion in dividends and $4.8 billion in share repurchase.

我們向股東返還了近 70 億美元的現金，其中約 22 億美元為股息，48 億美元為股票回購。

In summary, while input costs and supply chains remain challenging, we delivered good results for the second quarter and for the first half of the fiscal year, keeping us on track to deliver our going-in earnings estimates and to raise estimates for sales, cash productivity and cash return to shareowners, which I'll come back to later.

總而言之，儘管投入成本和供應鏈仍然充滿挑戰，但我們在第二季度和上半年的財年都取得了良好的業績，使我們有望實現年初的盈利預期，並提高銷售額、現金生產率和股東現金回報的預期，稍後我會再詳細討論這一點。

Moving on to strategy. Our team continues to operate with excellence and stays focused on the near-term priorities and long-term strategies that enabled us to create strong momentum prior to the COVID crisis and to make our business even stronger since the crisis began. We continue to step forward into the challenges and to double down our efforts to delight consumers. As we continue to manage through this crisis, we remain focused on the 3 priorities that have been guiding our near-term actions and choices.

接下來談談策略。我們的團隊繼續保持卓越的營運水平，並始終專注於近期重點工作和長期策略，正是這些工作和策略使我們在新冠疫情危機爆發前就已積累了強勁的發展勢頭，並在危機爆發後進一步鞏固了我們的業務。我們將繼續迎難而上，加倍努力，力求讓消費者滿意。在應對這場危機的過程中，我們將繼續專注於指導我們近期行動和決策的三大優先事項。

First is ensuring the health and safety of our P&G colleagues around the world; second, maximizing the availability of our products to help people and their families with their cleaning, health and hygiene needs; third priority is supporting the communities, relief agencies and people who are on the front lines of this global pandemic.

首先是確保寶潔全球同事的健康和安全；其次是最大限度地提高我們產品的供應量，以幫助人們及其家人滿足清潔、健康和衛生需求；第三優先事項是支持奮戰在全球疫情一線的社區、救援機構和人們。

The strategic choices we've made are the foundation for balanced top and bottom line growth and value creation, a portfolio of daily-use products, many providing cleaning, health and hygiene benefits in categories where performance plays a significant role in brand choice. In these performance-driven categories, we've raised the bar on all aspects of superiority, product, package, brand communication, retail execution and value.

我們所做的策略選擇是實現營收和利潤平衡成長以及價值創造的基礎，我們打造了一系列日常用品，其中許多產品在清潔、健康和衛生方面具有顯著優勢，而這些品類中，產品性能在品牌選擇中扮演著至關重要的角色。在這些以性能為導向的品類中，我們提高了卓越性、產品、包裝、品牌傳播、零售執行和價值等各個方面的標準。

Superior offerings delivered with superior execution drive market growth in our categories. This drives value creation for our retail partners and builds market share for P&G brands. The superiority model works in each of our categories. Take the 3 category growth drivers this quarter: Personal Health Care, Fabric Care and Feminine Care. Very different categories, different competitors, different geographic footprints and different materials and manufacturing processes, each delivering superiority and each growing organic sales double digits. In each of these categories, P&G is driving disproportionate share of overall category value growth, growing the pie for all participants.

卓越的產品和服務，加上卓越的執行力，推動了我們各個品類的市場成長。這不僅為我們的零售合作夥伴創造了價值，也為寶潔品牌提升了市場佔有率。這種卓越模式在我們所有品類中都行之有效。以本季三大品類成長驅動因素為例：個人健康照護、織品護理和女性照護。這三大品類截然不同，競爭對手各異，地域覆蓋範圍也不同，所用材料和生產工藝也各有差異，但每個品類都展現出卓越的品質，並實現了兩位數的有機銷售增長。在每個品類中，寶潔都佔據了品類整體價值成長的顯著份額，為所有參與者創造了更大的市場份額。

We've made investments to strengthen the health and competitiveness of our brands across innovation, supply chains and brand equity and we'll continue to invest to extend our margin of advantage and quality of execution, improving solutions for consumers around the world.

我們已投入資金，從創新、供應鏈和品牌資產等方面增強我們品牌的健康和競爭力，我們將繼續投資，以擴大我們的優勢和執行質量，並改善全球消費者的解決方案。

Building on the strength of our brands, we are thoughtfully executing tailored price increases. We closed a couple of price increases with innovation to improve consumer value along the way. The strategic need for investment to continue to strengthen the superiority of our brands, the short-term need to manage through this challenging cost environment and the ongoing need to drive balanced top and bottom line growth, including margin expansion, underscore the importance of ongoing productivity.

憑藉強大的品牌實力，我們正在審慎地執行有針對性的漲價策略。我們透過創新手段提升了部分產品的性價比，從而順利完成了部分漲價。為了持續鞏固品牌優勢，我們需要進行策略性投資；為了因應當前充滿挑戰的成本環境，我們需要在短期內有效管理成本；為了持續推動營收和利潤的均衡成長（包括利潤率的提升），我們需要不斷努力。這些都凸顯了持續提升生產力的重要性。

We're committed to driving cost savings and cash productivity in all facets of our business. No area of cost is left untouched. Each business is driving productivity within their P&L and balance sheet to support balanced top and bottom line growth and strong cash generation.

我們致力於在業務的各個方面降低成本並提高現金流效率。所有成本環節都經過嚴格把控。每個業務部門都在損益表和資產負債表中提升效率，以支持營收和利潤的均衡成長以及強勁的現金流。

Success in our highly competitive industry requires agility that comes with a mindset of constructive disruption, a willingness to change, adapt and create new trends and technologies that will shape our industry in the future. In the current environment, that agility and constructive disruption mindset are even more important.

在競爭激烈的產業中，成功需要敏捷性，而這種敏捷性源自於建設性顛覆的思維模式，即願意改變、適應並創造新的趨勢和技術，從而塑造我們產業的未來。在當前環境下，這種敏捷性和建設性顛覆的思考模式顯得格外重要。

Our organizational structure yields a more empowered, agile and accountable organization with little overlap or redundancy flowing to new demands, seamlessly supporting each other to deliver against our priorities around the world. These strategic choices of portfolio, superiority, productivity, constructive disruption and organization structure and culture are not independent strategies. They reinforce and build on each other. When executed well, they grow markets, which, in turn, grow share, sales and profit. These strategies were delivering strong results before the crisis, have served us well during these volatile times, and we're confident they remain the right strategic framework as we move through and beyond the crisis.

我們的組織架構打造了一個更具自主性、更敏捷、更負責任的組織，減少了重疊和冗餘，能夠順暢地應對新的需求，並相互支持，從而在全球範圍內實現我們的優先事項。這些關於產品組合、卓越性、生產力、建設性變革以及組織架構和文化的策略選擇並非彼此獨立，而是相互促進、相互強化。如果執行得當，它們能夠拓展市場，進而提升市場佔有率、銷售和利潤。這些策略在危機前就已取得顯著成效，在當前動盪時期也發揮了重要作用，我們相信，在應對危機及走出危機的過程中，它們仍然是正確的戰略框架。

Moving on to guidance. We said last quarter that we would undoubtedly experience more volatility as we move through the fiscal year. The Omicron variant has certainly proven this to be correct.

接下來談談業績展望。我們上個季度就說過，隨著財年推進，股價波動無疑會加劇。 Omicron 變體的表現無疑地印證了這一點。

As we saw in the first half of the fiscal year, growth results going forward will be heavily influenced by base period effects, along with these realities of current year cost pressures, foreign exchange volatility and continued effects of the global pandemic on supply chains and consumer behavior. Transportation and labor markets remain tight. Availability of materials remains stretched. In some categories and in some markets, inflationary pressures are broad-based with little sign of near-term relief.

正如我們在本財年上半年所見，未來的成長業績將受到基期效應的嚴重影響，同時還需應對本年度成本壓力、外匯波動以及全球疫情對供應鏈和消費者行為的持續影響等現實情況。運輸和勞動市場依然緊張，原料供應依然緊張。在某些品類和市場，通膨壓力普遍存在，短期內難以緩解。

These costs and operational challenges are not unique to P&G, and we won't be immune to the impact. However, we think the strategies we've chosen, the investments we've made and the focus on executional excellence have positioned us well to manage through this volatility over time.

這些成本和營運挑戰並非寶潔獨有，我們也無法免受其影響。然而，我們認為我們所選擇的策略、所做的投資以及對卓越執行的重視，使我們能夠更好地應對未來的市場波動。

The recent spike in virus cases and resulting lockdowns increased the risk of additional work stoppages in our operations or in those of our suppliers. Based on current spot prices, we now estimate a $2.3 billion after-tax commodity cost headwind in fiscal '22. Since our last update, we've seen continued increases in diesel and chemicals, with little offset in other materials.

近期病毒感染病例激增及由此導致的封鎖措施，增加了我們本身以及供應商營運中斷的風險。根據目前的現貨價格，我們預計2022財政年度稅後大宗商品成本將面臨23億美元的不利影響。自上次更新以來，柴油和化學產品價格持續上漲，而其他材料價格幾乎沒有相應上漲。

Trade costs have continued to increase. We now expect freight and transportation costs to be an incremental $300 million after-tax headwind for fiscal '22. Foreign exchange rates have also moved against us since our last guidance. We now expect FX to be a $200 million after-tax headwind to earnings for the fiscal year.

貿易成本持續上漲。我們預計，2022財年貨運和運輸成本將額外增加3億美元的稅後虧損。此外，自從我們上次發布業績指引以來，匯率也對我們不利。我們預計，外匯波動將使本財年稅後獲利減少2億美元。

We will offset a portion of these cost pressures with price increases and with productivity savings. We've now announced price increases in each of our 10 product categories in the U.S.; increases in Baby Care, Feminine Care, Adult Incontinence, Family Care, Home Care, Hair Care, Grooming, Oral Care, Skin Care are now effective in market. We also increased prices on mid-tier liquid detergents and powder detergents over the last few months.

我們將透過提價和提高生產效率來抵消部分成本壓力。目前，我們已宣佈在美國的10個產品類別中全面提價，包括嬰兒護理、女性護理、成人失禁用品、家庭護理、家居護理、頭髮護理、個人護理、口腔護理和皮膚護理。這些提價措施現已生效。此外，在過去幾個月中，我們也提高了中檔液體洗滌劑和粉狀洗滌劑的價格。

In mid-December, we announced to retailers that effective February 28, we are increasing pricing on the balance of our Fabric Care portfolio. This includes Tide, Gain, Downey, Bounce and Unstopables, and includes all forms, liquid and unit dose detergents, scent beads, liquid fabric softeners and dryer sheets.

12月中旬，我們向零售商宣布，自2月28日起，我們將上調旗下所有織物護理產品的價格。這包括汰漬（Tide）、佳潔（Gain）、唐尼（Downey）、寶潔（Bounce）和Unstopables系列產品，涵蓋所有劑型，包括液體和單劑量洗滌劑、香氛珠、液體衣物柔順劑和烘乾紙。

Just yesterday, we announced to retailers that we are increasing pricing on certain Personal Health Care brands in the U.S. effective mid-April. The degree and timing of these moves are very specific to the category, brand and sometimes the product form within a brand. This is not a one-size-fits-all approach. We're also taking pricing in many markets outside the U.S. to offset commodity, freight and foreign exchange impacts. As we've said before, we believe this is a temporary bottom line rough patch to go through not a reason to reduce investment in the business. We're sticking with the strategy that has been working well before and during the COVID crisis.

就在昨天，我們向零售商宣布，自四月中旬起，我們將提高美國部分個人健康護理品牌的價格。這些漲價的幅度及時間因品類、品牌，有時甚至是同一品牌下的不同產品形態而異。我們並非採取一刀切的策略。此外，為了抵銷大宗商品、運費和匯率波動的影響，我們也在許多其他美國以外的市場調整了價格。正如我們之前所說，我們認為這只是暫時的獲利困難期，並非削減業務投資的理由。我們將繼續沿用在新冠疫情爆發前後行之有效的策略。

Moving to the key metric guidance. We now expect organic sales growth in the range of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year, up from our initial range of 2% to 4%. We expect pricing to be a larger contributor to sales growth in the back half of the fiscal year as more of our price increases become effective in the market. As this pricing reaches store shelves, we'll be closely monitoring consumption trends. So far, we haven't seen noticeable changes in consumer behavior. Demand for our best-performing premium-priced offerings remains very strong as do our market share trends.

接下來是關鍵指標指引。我們現在預計本財年有機銷售額成長將在4%至5%之間，高於先前2%至4%的預期。隨著更多提價措施在市場上生效，我們預計價格將在下半年對銷售成長做出更大貢獻。隨著這些新價格陸續上架，我們將密切關註消費趨勢。目前為止，我們尚未發現消費者行為有明顯變化。我們表現最佳的高價產品需求依然強勁，市佔率也維持穩定。

On the bottom line, we're confirming our outlook of core earnings per share growth in a range of 3% to 6%.

綜上所述，我們確認了對核心每股收益成長的預期，即成長 3% 至 6%。

In total, our revised outlook for the impact of materials, freight and foreign exchange is now a $2.8 billion after-tax headwind for fiscal '22 earnings or roughly $1.10 per share, a 20 percentage point headwind to core EPS growth. Despite these cost challenges, we are committed to maintaining strong investment in our brands. As pricing goes into effect and as we annualize the initial spike in input costs, earnings growth should be sequentially stronger in the third and fourth quarter of the fiscal year.

整體而言，我們對原物料、運費和匯率影響的修正預期是，這將對2022財年稅後收益造成28億美元的不利影響，約合每股1.10美元，對核心每股收益成長造成20個百分點的負面影響。儘管面臨這些成本挑戰，我們仍致力於持續加大對旗下品牌的投資。隨著價格調整生效以及我們將初始投入成本的激增逐步納入年度考量，預計本財年第三季和第四季的獲利成長將環比走強。

We are increasing our outlook for adjusted free cash flow productivity to 95%, and we are raising our guidance for cash return to shareowners. We continue to expect to pay over $8 billion in dividends, and we now plan to repurchase $9 billion to $10 billion of common stock; combined, a plan to return $17 billion to $18 billion of cash to shareowners this fiscal year. This outlook is based on current market growth rate estimates, commodity price and foreign exchange rates. Significant additional currency weakness, commodity cost increases, geopolitical disruption, major supply chain disruptions or store closures are not anticipated within the guidance ranges.

我們將調整後自由現金流效率預期上調至95%，並提高了對股東現金回報的預期。我們仍預期將派發超過80億美元的股息，並計劃回購90億至100億美元的普通股；合計，本財年計劃向股東返還170億至180億美元的現金。此預期基於當前的市場成長率、大宗商品價格和匯率。預計不會出現貨幣大幅貶值、大宗商品成本上漲、地緣政治動盪、重大供應鏈中斷或門市關閉等情況。

To conclude, our business exhibited strong momentum well before the COVID crisis. We strengthened our position further during the crisis, and we believe P&G is well positioned to grow beyond the crisis. We will manage through the near-term cost pressures and continued market level volatility with the strategy we've outlined many times and against the immediate priorities of ensuring employee health and safety, maximizing availability of our products and helping society overcome the COVID challenges that still exist in many parts of the world. We'll continue to step forward toward our opportunities and remain fully invested in our business. We remain committed to driving productivity improvements to fund growth investments, mitigate input cost challenges and to maintain balanced top and bottom line growth.

總之，早在新冠疫情危機爆發之前，我們的業務就展現出強勁的成長動能。危機期間，我們進一步鞏固了自身地位，並堅信寶潔已做好充分準備，在危機過後實現持續成長。我們將秉持先前多次闡述的策略，應對短期成本壓力和持續的市場波動，同時優先保障員工健康安全，最大限度地提高產品供應，並幫助社會克服目前仍存在於世界許多地區的新冠疫情挑戰。我們將繼續掌握機遇，全力投入業務發展。我們將持續致力於提升生產效率，為成長投資提供資金，緩解投入成本挑戰，並維持營收和利潤的平衡成長。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

那麼，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

So on the top line side, clearly strong results across the board, but Beauty top line growth was below consensus in the quarter. So just any thoughts on the Beauty top line performance. And specifically, maybe you can talk about China Beauty from a category and market share perspective in the December quarter. And any go-forward thoughts on China Beauty or China in general, given the flattish year-over-year trends in the quarter.

因此，從營收整體來看，各業務板塊表現強勁，但美妝業務的營收成長低於市場預期。請問您對美妝事業的營收表現有何看法？特別是，能否從品類和市佔率的角度談談中國美妝市場在12月季度的表現？鑑於本季年增速較為平緩，您對中國美妝市場乃至整個中國市場的未來發展有何展望？

And then on the rest of the business, with the strong market share results, can you just talk about your level of confidence going forward in sustaining those share gains? And how supply chain and consumer and retailer acceptance of price increases may impact the forward outlook from a market share perspective?

至於其他業務方面，鑑於強勁的市場佔有率表現，您能否談談您對未來維持這些市場佔有率成長的信心？供應鏈、消費者和零售商對價格上漲的接受程度將如何影響市場份額的未來前景？

All right. Dara, that's a lot. So let me start with maybe 2 and focus on Beauty and China within that. Look, if you look at our Beauty business over a longer period of time, the business has actually delivered about $3 billion in incremental sales over the past 5 years; more than $1 billion of incremental profit; significant contribution to shareholder return; 25 consecutive quarters of organic sales growth, including this quarter.

好的。達拉，資訊量有點大。那我就先從第二點開始，重點談談美妝業務和中國市場。你看，如果我們長期觀察我們的美妝業務，就會發現過去五年裡，該業務的增量銷售額達到了約30億美元；增量利潤超過10億美元；為股東回報做出了顯著貢獻；並且連續25個季度實現了有機銷售增長，包括本季度。

When we look at this quarter on a 2-year stack, on Beauty, it's a 7% for quarter 2; quarter 1 was a 9% stack; Hair Care growing 2%; Skin and Personal Care growing 3%. So we feel good about the overall performance of the Beauty business and the strength of the core portfolio. There is significant runway. I'll comment on China in a minute. We certainly saw a slowdown in some of the Beauty portfolio, namely SK-II, which we've mentioned before; store closures of department stores, lower traffic there; and also slower key consumption periods in some of the China events. And honestly, our unwillingness to go into very deep discount levels on the brand have contributed to a slower growth in quarter 2.

從過去兩年的整體數據來看，第二季美妝業務成長7%，第一季為9%；護髮業務成長2%；護膚及個人護理業務成長3%。因此，我們對美妝業務的整體表現以及核心產品組合的強勁勢頭感到滿意，成長空間依然巨大。稍後我會談到中國市場。我們確實看到部分美妝產品組合的成長放緩，特別是先前提到的SK-II；百貨公司關閉，客流量下降；以及中國部分重要消費活動期間的消費淡季。坦白說，我們不願大幅降低該品牌的折扣力度，也是導致第二季成長放緩的原因之一。

Overall, the portfolio is strong, we believe, has very strong growth potential in the future. We are also excited about the acquisitions we've announced, Tula, Farmacy Beauty and Ouai, all focused on the premium end of the trade in the U.S premium consumers, which is giving us opportunity for additional top line growth and value creation in the U.S. and also globally.

整體而言，我們認為公司產品組合實力雄厚，未來成長潛力大。我們對已宣布的收購項目也感到非常興奮，包括Tula、Farmacy Beauty和Ouai，這些公司都專注於美國高端消費市場的高端產品，這將為我們在美國乃至全球帶來更多營收成長和價值創造的機會。

On China, I'll start with a similar comment. China, over the past 4 or 5 years, has delivered high singles or low teens sales growth. We have a stable of very strong brands. We continue to believe that consumption after a weaker period in quarter 1, as you have seen, and quarter 2 in the market, consumption in our categories will return to mid singles. And we feel well positioned to benefit from that growth with a strong organization, strong supply chain and strong R&D capability on the ground.

關於中國市場，我先說幾句類似的話。過去四、五年，中國市場的銷售額一直維持著較高的成長率，達到兩位數或幾個百分點。我們擁有許多實力雄厚的品牌。如大家所見，市場在第一季和第二季經歷了一段疲軟期後，我們仍然相信，我們旗下各品類的消費將會回升至中等水平。憑藉強大的組織架構、完善的供應鏈以及強大的研發能力，我們有信心從這一成長中獲益。

The other point to note, even with China being flat in the quarter, from a global perspective, we were able to grow more than 6%. And part of that is the strength of the geographic portfolio that we need to focus on because in some markets, we might have to invest. China certainly is, at this point in time, as you point out, weaker in an overall -- from an overall consumption standpoint.

另一點要注意的是，即使中國市場本季表現平平，從全球角度來看，我們仍然實現了超過6%的成長。這部分歸功於我們重點關注的地域投資組合的優勢，因為在某些市場，我們可能需要進行投資。正如您所指出的，就目前而言，中國整體消費水準確實有所下降。

So I'll stop there. I'm sure we'll get back to your other questions and some of the other comments, Dara.

我就先說到這裡吧。我相信我們以後還會再討論你的其他問題和一些評論，達拉。

Your next question will come from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

你的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的勞倫·利伯曼。

I was curious to talk a little bit about productivity. The contribution this quarter was only, I think, it's 80 basis points that was cited in the release. And just I would guess that means a big ramp up in the second half. So I was curious why, relative to timing of it, if it has to do with COVID and absenteeism, if it's related to how you calculate just based on raw material access and so on. But just anything you can share on productivity plans and timing would be helpful.

我想稍微談談生產力方面的問題。本季的貢獻只有80個基點，我記得新聞稿裡是這麼說的。我猜這意味著下半年會有大幅成長。所以我很好奇，就時間安排而言，這是否與新冠疫情和員工缺勤有關，或者是否與你們的計算方式（例如原材料供應等）有關。總之，任何關於生產力計劃和時間安排的資訊都將對我有幫助。

Yes, Lauren, productivity, the number of 80 basis points in the quarter, we expect about $800 million BT productivity contribution from cost of goods for the year. And it's a little bit lighter than what we would have done in previous years. But most importantly, we remain fully committed to productivity as a core driver of margin expansion.

是的，勞倫，關於生產力，本季提高了80個基點，我們預計全年生產力對商品成本的貢獻約為8億美元。這比我們往年的預期略低。但最重要的是，我們仍然堅定地將生產力提升為利潤率的核心驅動力。

In the short term, there are a couple of effects that I want to spend a minute on. Number one, when you think about cost savings projects, they require line time. That line time is competing with the need to ship cases in a very constrained supply chain. When we think about innovation, we talk frequently about our desire to close a couple of price increases with innovation. Innovation also needs line time. So cost savings projects on the line also compete with innovation, and they compete with our desire and need to ship the business.

短期內，我想花點時間談幾個影響因素。首先，說到成本節約項目，它們都需要生產線時間。而生產線時間又與在供應鏈高度緊張的情況下出貨的需求相衝突。說到創新，我們常常談到希望透過創新來彌補價格上漲。但創新也需要生產線時間。因此，生產線上的成本節約項目不僅與創新存在競爭，也與我們出貨的需求相衝突。

Therefore, in a constrained environment, as you point out, our businesses make the decision to focus on innovation, focus on shipping the business, which is better for retailers, better for consumers, better for us in terms of value creation, but it has an impact on cost savings.

因此，正如您所指出的，在受限的環境下，我們的企業決定專注於創新，專注於業務交付，這對零售商、消費者、對我們自身在價值創造方面都有利，但這會對成本節約產生影響。

The good news is these cost savings are available to us in the future. They don't go anywhere, but you see a little bit slower ramp-up in that context.

好消息是，這些成本節約在未來仍能惠及我們。它們不會消失，只是在這種情況下，成長速度會稍微慢一些。

Second element I would mention is the global pressure on supply chain and the flexibility that we've talked about that our supply people have generated doesn't come for free. So when we need to shift to alternate materials, when we need to shift to alternate suppliers, all our sources of materials geographically, that comes as a premium, which goes against productivity. Again, the right choice, because shipping the cases is financially more viable than creating the cost saving, but it has an impact.

第二點我想提的是全球供應鏈面臨的壓力，以及我們之前討論過的供應商所提供的彈性，但這並非沒有代價。因此，當我們必須更換原材料或供應商時，無論從地理位置來看，所有原材料來源都需要額外成本，這都會影響生產效率。當然，這並非正確的選擇，因為運輸這些包裝箱在經濟上比節省成本更划算，但這確實會產生影響。

And then the last point I'll make is negotiating commercial savings when everyone is trying to get the materials in sufficient quantity is also a bit more difficult.

最後我想說的是，當每個人都想獲得足夠數量的材料時，談判商業節約也會變得更加困難。

So all of that to say, short-term pressure, longer term, fully committed to productivity being a core driver of margin expansion and balanced growth model, and you'll see progress quarter-by-quarter.

綜上所述，短期壓力，長期目標，即全力以赴提高生產力，使其成為利潤率擴張和平衡成長模式的核心驅動力，你會看到逐季取得進展。

And I would just add, Lauren, that Omicron hasn't helped. It further pressurizes the dynamics that Andre spoke about, and it just reduces the resources we have available at any point in time to work on these things. When -- as people become infected and need to quarantine, as they need to take care of family members, as children's schools are closed, all of those things have a real impact, which, to Andre's point, should lighten as hopefully everyone on the call, please cross your fingers as we go forward.

蘿倫，我還要補充一點，奧密克戎計畫並沒有起到任何幫助。它進一步加劇了安德烈提到的那些問題，也進一步減少了我們隨時可用來處理這些問題的資源。當人們感染病毒需要隔離，需要照顧家人，學校停課時，所有這些都會產生實際的影響。正如安德烈所說，希望隨著大家的共同努力，這些影響能夠有所緩解。請大家祈禱，我們未來能夠一切順利。

Next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的史蒂夫鮑爾斯。

Maybe building on that a little bit. So as we think about the back half and the levers that you have at your disposal to offset the $2.8 billion in commodity freight currency headwinds that you now face, I guess can you talk a little bit -- let's just elaborate a little bit more on the initiatives that you've put in place specifically over the last 3 months to help with that as we get into calendar '22?

或許可以再進一步探討一下。展望下半年，考慮到您目前面臨的28億美元大宗商品貨運匯率不利因素，您有哪些因應措施？我想請您詳細談談——讓我們更詳細地闡述一下您在過去三個月中為應對這些不利因素而採取的具體舉措，以便我們順利進入2022年？

And I guess I'm specifically curious, when we think about the second half P&L, as to how you anticipate the drivers of organic growth shaking out, price versus volume, number one. And then number two, whether we should expect marketing, inclusive of nonworking media productivity, to remain a continued source of positive leverage as the year continues.

我想特別好奇的是，在考慮下半年損益表時，您如何預測自然成長的驅動因素將如何變化，首先是價格與銷售量之間的關係。其次，我們是否應該預期行銷（包括非工作媒體生產力）在今年剩餘的時間裡將繼續成為積極的成長動力。

Steve. All right. So from a gross margin perspective, a couple of things will come to play here. If you assume that the existing commodity foreign exchange rate and transportation and warehousing pressures remain at this level, which is our basis for planning, we will benefit from more pricing flowing through the P&L. Most of our price increases, as you've seen in our prepared remarks, have gone -- or some have gone into effect in September and October, but the majority of the price increases are still coming into effect over December, quarter 1, quarter 3 and quarter 4. So the contribution of pricing both to the gross margin recover as well as to the price mix line within the top line is going to increase sequentially as we go through the fiscal year.

史蒂夫：好的。從毛利率的角度來看，有兩個因素會起作用。假設目前的商品匯率以及運輸和倉儲壓力維持在當前水準（這是我們制定計劃的依據），那麼我們將受益於更多價格上漲對損益表的影響。正如您在我們事先準備好的發言稿中所看到的，我們的大部分提價措施已經在9月和10月生效，或者說部分提價措施已經生效，但大部分提價措施仍將在12月、第一季、第三季度和第四季陸續生效。因此，隨著財年的推進，價格因素對毛利率回升以及在營收組成中的價格貢獻將逐年增加。

We also will see, in the base period, the commodity pressures are coming into the base gross margin, starting with the third quarter and then really flowing in, in the fourth quarter base comparison. So that's going to help the gross margin comparison as well.

我們也會看到，在基期，大宗商品價格壓力開始影響基期毛利率，從第三季開始，並在第四季基期比較中顯著加劇。因此，這也將有助於提高毛利率的比較結果。

And lastly, the continuation of, hopefully, more stability in the labor force, more stability around COVID as we exit this winter, will allow us to increase contribution from productivity, as I've talked before, which will also help gross margin recovery in the second half.

最後，正如我之前所說，隨著我們走出這個冬天，勞動市場和新冠疫情有望繼續保持穩定，這將使我們能夠提高生產力的貢獻，這也將有助於下半年毛利率的恢復。

On the pricing contribution versus volume contribution, I expect price to become a bigger part, as I said, logically, because of the timing of the price increases that we have announced. And in terms of ability to sustain the pricing, we have seen -- for the price increases where we have sufficient read period at this point in time, we have seen a more benign reaction of the consumer. The consumer is healthy generally and is preferring our brands. We are starting with strong superiority, and price elasticity has generally been lower than what we would have seen historically, which also speaks to the fact that we hopefully will continue to see volume growth in combination with the stronger price growth in the back half.

關於價格貢獻與銷售貢獻，正如我之前所說，考慮到我們已宣布的漲價時機，我預計價格貢獻將越來越大。至於價格能否持續，就目前我們有足夠的觀察期來看，消費者對漲價的反應較為溫和。消費者整體健康狀況良好，並且更傾向於我們的品牌。我們擁有強大的市場優勢，價格彈性也普遍低於歷史水平，這也預示著我們預計在下半年繼續保持銷售成長，同時價格也能實現更強勁的成長。

I just want to underscore something that Andre said. Remember that the pricing that we've announced, even though pricing has taken effect at shelf, we didn't have a full quarter benefit from in the quarter we just completed. So that simple roll forward is a help. And the majority of the pricing that we've announced has not yet taken place.

我只想強調一下安德烈剛才說的話。請記住，我們公佈的價格，即使已經生效，也並非完全基於上一季的收益。所以，這種簡單的結轉方式就起到了一定的作用。而且，我們公佈的大部分價格尚未真正生效。

Next question will be from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

I wanted to drill a little bit deeper on the cost and price outlook. So a couple of things. First, in response to that last question, I think I got the sense -- well, clearly telegraphed this, that the pricing will continue to build. Back half, it sounds like you're looking for at least 4%, if not more, price contribution or at least about a $1.5 billion or so net sales contribution. If we look at your cost of both commodities and freight in the $2.6 billion, I think from your margin bridge, it implies that you've already absorbed around $1.7 billion in the front half. So in other words, you're expecting $1 billion or less in the back half, and we should, therefore, expect a price cost surplus to emerge. I want to make sure I had all my math right on that, at least directionally.

我想更深入地探討一下成本和價格前景。所以有幾點要說明。首先，針對上一個問題，我感覺──或者說，我之前已經明確表達過──價格還會繼續上漲。聽起來你們預計下半年價格貢獻至少為4%，甚至更高，或至少能帶來15億美元的淨銷售額貢獻。如果我們看一下你們26億美元的商品和運費成本，我認為從你們的利潤率來看，這意味著你們在上半年已經消化了大約17億美元的成本。換句話說，你們預計下半年成本支出將在10億美元或以下，因此我們應該預期會出現價格成本盈餘。我想確認一下我的計算是否正確，至少方向是對的。

And then second part, you've clearly had to revise your commodity and freight outlook up the last few quarters. Remind us again what the current commodity outlook is predicated on so that we can get a proper sense of what the upside, downside risks are to that.

其次，您顯然在過去幾季調整了商品和貨運前景展望。請再次提醒我們，目前的商品前景展望是基於哪些因素，以便我們能夠正確了解其上行和下行風險。

Yes. Jason, on the commodity and transportation, warehousing timing, yes, I mean, I assume your math is right. I won't check it here, but we can certainly follow up as needed.

是的，Jason，關於商品、運輸和倉儲時間，是的，我的意思是，我假設你的計算是正確的。我不會在這裡核對，但我們當然可以根據需要進行後續跟進。

We assume in our forecast in our guidance, spot prices for both the commodity basket and for transportation and warehousing, we've seen increases still in this last cycle as reflected in the increase in commodities and transportation and warehousing. But we're also seeing a slower rate of increase. So hopefully, meaning that we reach the peak here soon. But we are building our financial forecast and our financial planning on that level. So we don't assume any easing in terms of transportation and warehousing or commodity cost impact or foreign exchange for that matter.

在我們的預測指引中，我們假設大宗商品籃子以及運輸和倉儲的現貨價格在本輪週期中仍在上漲，正如大宗商品和運輸倉儲價格上漲所反映的那樣。但我們也看到漲幅有所放緩。因此，我們希望價格能夠很快達到高峰。我們正是基於此制定財務預測和財務計劃。因此，我們並未假設運輸和倉儲、大宗商品成本影響或外匯波動會有任何緩解。

Next question will come from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

I was wondering if you could give us some sense of how you assess your revenue management skills at this point. Clearly, the results would suggest they're pretty positive. But I'd love to understand maybe some of the changes that you've done over the last few years to improve your ability to manage in an inflationary environment if, in fact, that is what we're headed into for a long period; your ability to work with different elasticities; manage trade spend, et cetera, both in the U.S. and overseas. And how it may be better than it was in the past?

我想請您談談您目前如何評估自身的收入管理能力。顯然，結果顯示您的能力相當不錯。但我很想了解，如果未來很長一段時間內我們確實將面臨通膨環境，那麼您在過去幾年中為了提升應對通膨的能力做了哪些調整；例如，您如何應對不同的彈性係數；如何管理美國境內外的貿易支出等等。以及，您現在的能力與過去相比有哪些提升？

Very good. Robert, if I step back, I think we're better positioned for dealing with an inflationary environment or revenue management in that sense than we've ever been before, starting with a portfolio that is focused on daily-use categories, health, hygiene and cleaning that are essential to the consumer versus discretionary categories, which in these environments, are the first ones to lose focus from the consumer. Secondly, starting with a portfolio that is 75% superior by our assessment and reflected probably in the market share results and trends that we're seeing. We also, over time, have built much stronger price ladders. So we have offerings for the consumer at different price points and different cash outlays.

非常好。羅伯特，如果我從整體上分析一下，我認為我們現在比以往任何時候都更有能力應對通膨環境或進行收入管理。首先，我們的產品組合專注於日常用品、健康、衛生和清潔等消費者必需品，而不是非必需品。在當前環境下，非必需品往往會先被消費者忽略。其次，根據我們的評估，我們的產品組合比同類產品優勢顯著75%，這也可能反映在我們目前看到的市場份額和趨勢中。此外，隨著時間的推移，我們也建構了更完善的價格體系。因此，我們能夠為不同價位和不同消費水準的消費者提供相應的產品。

When you think about diapers, you can get a large diaper for $0.15 a diaper, Swaddlers at $0.30 a or Pure diaper at $0.38. And that's generally true across all categories, across all brands. So that means the consumer has a choice within our portfolio. So in that sense, I think we are set up well from a starting point to deal with inflation and related pricing.

說到尿布，你可以花0.15美元買到大尿布，0.30美元買到Swaddlers尿布，或是0.38美元買到Pure尿布。這種情況在所有品類、所有品牌中都普遍存在。這意味著消費者在我們產品組合中有很多選擇。因此，我認為從這個意義上講，我們從一開始就做好了應對通貨膨脹和相關價格上漲的準備。

From an execution standpoint, I think we also benefit from a couple of things. Number one, the organizational redesign in focus markets and enterprise markets enables much faster and much clearer decision-making, which is critical in these processes, and also much more diligence in terms of where to take pricing, country, brand, SKU level.

從執行角度來看，我認為我們也受益於以下幾點。首先，重點市場和企業市場的組織架構重組使得決策速度更快、更清晰，這在這些流程中至關重要；其次，在定價、國家、品牌、SKU 等層面上的決策也更加謹慎。

And the other element here is that from an execution standpoint, we certainly have seen that innovation can play a significant role. And the strength of our innovation pipeline and our ability to combine pricing with innovation is certainly helping us in this environment.

另一方面，從執行層面來看，我們已經看到創新可以發揮重要作用。我們強大的創新管道以及將定價與創新相結合的能力，無疑對我們在當前環境下取得成功大有裨益。

Last point I'll make, and then Jon will probably have comments here as well, we've been operating in high-inflation environments around the world for many years. Think about Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina, those are high inflation markets and environments. So we know how to deal with that. Obviously, we hope we don't get to that place, but generally well positioned for the reasons I tried to outline here.

最後一點，Jon可能也會補充一些內容，那就是我們多年來一直在全球高通膨環境下運作。想想土耳其、奈及利亞、阿根廷，這些都是高通膨市場和環境。所以我們知道如何應對這種情況。當然，我們希望不會走到那一步，但總的來說，鑑於我剛才提到的種種原因，我們已經做好了充分的準備。

And just a reminder of the obvious, we're dealing with commodity cost increases that affect every competitor, both multinational and local, which changes the dynamic pretty considerably versus, for example, pricing for foreign exchange, which has a differential impact across the competitive set. So it's not an easy job, but it's an easier job that we've managed, as Andre said, successfully in many geographies in the recent past.

最後提醒大家一點，我們面臨的是大宗商品成本上漲，這會影響所有競爭對手，無論是跨國公司或是本地企業。與外匯價格等因素相比，這極大地改變了市場格局，因為外匯價格對不同競爭對手的影響各不相同。所以，這並非易事，但正如安德烈所說，我們最近在許多地區都成功地應對了類似的挑戰。

Next question will come from the line of Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

I wanted to pivot and ask about M&A on a couple of different fronts, please. Just number one, the openness to larger-scale M&A at this point. I think there was clearly a period in recent years, post the portfolio rationalization, where the company was sensibly very focused on turning around the portfolio, larger-scale M&A wasn't really on the table. So is the organization in a better place? Is the Board open to larger-scale deals at this point? And if so, maybe you could put some guardrails around that.

我想轉換一下主題，從幾個方面詢問一下併購事宜。首先，我想問的是，目前公司對大規模併購持開放態度。我認為，在過去幾年進行投資組合優化之後，公司顯然有一段時間非常專注於扭轉投資組合的頹勢，因此並沒有考慮大規模併購。那麼，公司現在的情況是否有改善？董事會目前是否對大規模交易持開放態度？如果持開放態度，或許可以考慮設定一些限制條件。

And then relatedly, Andre, you touched on some of the smaller tuck-in deals in Prestige Beauty, which have been picked up here. Maybe just spend a moment there to find the approach in Prestige Beauty given past missteps and the decision to exit some of the larger brands that were once in the portfolio there, I think that would be helpful.

安德烈，你剛才提到了一些高端美妝領域的小規模收購，這些收購我們這裡也進行了。或許我們可以花點時間探討高端美妝領域的策略，考慮到過去犯下的錯誤以及決定退出一些曾經是旗下大品牌的決定，我認為這會很有幫助。

Kevin, this is Jon. A couple of points on large M&A. The first very, very important point is we like our current portfolio. We have confidence that we can create value with that portfolio. And frankly, all parts of it are working. Andre mentioned that we're growing market share in 9 out of 10 of those categories. And importantly, that market share growth is not taking business, it's creating business in large part, affecting the overall growth of the market. So we're in a very healthy situation with a very healthy portfolio that's underpinned with a clear set of priorities and a very effective tightly integrated set of strategies.

凱文，我是喬恩。關於大型併購，有幾點需要說明。首先，也是非常重要的一點，我們非常滿意目前的投資組合。我們有信心透過這個投資組合創造價值。坦白說，投資組合的各個部分都運作良好。安德烈提到，我們在十個類別中的九個類別中市佔率都在成長。更重要的是，市場佔有率的成長並非搶佔市場，而是在很大程度上創造了新的業務，從而影響了整個市場的成長。因此，我們目前處於非常健康的狀況，擁有一個非常健康的投資組合，這得益於我們清晰的優先事項和一套高效且緊密整合的策略。

And we're adding -- or we're strengthening our strategic execution by a focus on 4 areas. One is supply, the second is digital confidence across the value chain, the third is employee value and the fourth is sustainability. We like that hand overall.

我們正在加強策略執行，並專注於四個領域：供應鏈、價值鏈各環節的數位化信心、員工價值和永續發展。整體而言，我們對這項戰略佈局非常滿意。

Second point, our algorithm, growing slightly ahead of the market with EPS up mid to high singles, assumes 100% organic growth. So again, we don't need large M&A to deliver against that. And we certainly haven't utilized large M&A in the last 4- or 5-year period when we've been delivering very regularly on that expectation.

第二點，我們的演算法略微領先市場，每股盈餘預計達到中高個位數，其假設是100%的內生成長。因此，我們不需要大規模併購來實現這一目標。事實上，在過去四、五年裡，我們一直穩定地達到這一預期，而在此期間，我們從未進行過大規模併購。

A couple of other points, and then I'll get to Beauty, and then Andre may have some comments on Beauty as well. The -- we have said many times that there -- that we'd intend to win in these 10 categories that we've selected. And that acquisition would be a part of the way that we may choose to fill out categories in order to win. And we've talked about 2 categories, in particular, that would be particular focus areas. One is Skin Care, and the other is Personal Health Care. So all of that remains as true.

還有幾點要補充，之後我會談到美容方面，安德烈可能也會對美容方面發表一些看法。我們已經多次說過，我們的目標是在我們選定的這十個類別中都取得勝利。而收購將是我們完善類別版面、力爭獲勝的途徑之一。我們特別提到了兩個重點領域：護膚和個人健康護理。以上所有觀點依然有效。

The last point I would make, which is, I realize, not very helpful to the audience at hand, but as a matter of policy, we don't comment further than what I just have on acquisition or divestiture.

最後我想說的是，我知道這對在座的各位可能沒什麼幫助，但根據我們的政策，對於收購或剝離，我們不會再發表任何超出我剛才所說的內容的評論。

On Beauty, I want to clarify what I think has been a little bit of a misunderstanding. When we made the portfolio decisions as to what we were going to move out on Beauty and what we were going to stay in, we did not make price tier decisions. We did not exit premium Beauty. We made category decisions. And we exited several categories that were more discretionary, that were not daily use and where performance had a lower role in driving brand choice.

關於美妝產品，我想澄清一下大家可能存在的一些誤解。當我們決定哪些美妝產品要退出市場、哪些產品要保留時，我們並沒有考慮價格層級。我們也沒有退出高端美妝市場。我們考慮的是品類。我們退出的幾個品類屬於非必需消費品，並非日常使用，而且在這些品類中，產品功效對品牌選擇的影響較小。

So for example, we maintained our most premium Beauty offering, SK-II. So this notion that we're -- we've got out of a price tier and now we're getting back in is not the way to think about it. We got out of categories, and we're strengthening those categories. And these -- the brands that we have purchased, as Andre said earlier, play in the premium portion of the beauty categories, which are the fastest growing from a market standpoint to date and obviously give us ample opportunity to create value given their margin structure. Andre, anything to add?

例如，我們保留了最高端的美妝品牌SK-II。所以，那種認為我們退出了某個價格區間，現在又重新回歸的說法是不正確的。我們退出的是某些品類，而現在我們正在加強這些品類。正如Andre之前所說，我們收購的這些品牌都屬於高端美妝品類，而高端美妝品類是迄今為止市場增長最快的，而且鑑於它們的利潤結構，顯然能給我們創造充足的價值機會。 Andre，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Nothing to add.

沒什麼要補充的。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

This is actually Kojo on for Andrea here. So just in terms of service levels, can you please comment on your ability to fulfill just given the impacts of employee absenteeism? And has it improved from the peak on Omicron worldwide?

這裡是Kojo替Andrea發言。就服務水準而言，您能否談談考慮到員工缺勤的影響，貴公司目前的服務能力如何？與Omicron全球業務高峰期相比，情況是否有改善？

Our ability to supply is relatively stable, it's stable actually. If you look at our on-shelf availability, for example, in the U.S., last quarter, we reported that was around 94%. We're still running at around 94%, which is not where we want to be, which would be more in the 98%, 99% range, but good relative to peer group and good given, again, the overall challenges the industry is seeing, the retail environment is seeing. So -- and that is true around the world. Our supply chain people, who deserve all the credit here, continue to do an absolutely amazing job, making sure that our retail partners have the products available that our consumers want to buy. And there are no major outages given the flexibility we've created within the supply chain.

我們的供應能力相對穩定，實際上非常穩定。例如，如果您看一下我們上季度在美國的貨架供應率，我們報告的約為94%。目前我們仍然維持在94%左右，雖然這並非我們理想的水平（我們希望達到98%或99%），但相對於同行而言已經相當不錯，考慮到整個行業和零售環境面臨的挑戰，這個成績也算可以接受。而且，這種情況在全球範圍內都適用。我們的供應鏈團隊功不可沒，他們持續出色地工作，確保我們的零售合作夥伴能夠提供消費者想要購買的產品。由於我們在供應鏈中建立的靈活性，目前沒有任何重大斷貨情況。

Even in China, as we saw regional lockdowns, we were able to shift production into alternative sites and thereby maintain supply. So continued great work by our supply organization, relatively stable situation. We'll continue to monitor closely because this is not over. So great success now with no guarantee for the future, but we certainly feel well positioned.

即使在中國，隨著各地出現封鎖措施，我們也能夠將生產轉移到其他地點，從而維持供應。因此，我們的供應鏈團隊持續出色地完成了工作，情況相對穩定。我們將繼續密切關注事態發展，因為疫情尚未結束。目前取得了巨大的成功，但未來無法保證，不過我們目前確實處於有利地位。

Next question will be from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國證券的克里斯凱裡。

So one quick follow-up on SK-II. Are you seeing that slowdown as temporary, some normalization in demand? Or do you think the brand is reaching some ceiling on growth and hence, you've made these additional moves?

那麼，關於SK-II，還有一個後續問題。您認為目前的成長放緩是暫時的，需求逐漸恢復正常嗎？還是您認為該品牌的成長已經達到瓶頸，因此才採取了這些額外的措施？

And then a broader question just on pricing in Baby. Price mix in the category has really accelerated. It doesn't seem like it was that long ago that the category was seeing higher promotional activity to drive volumes. Can you just expand on the step change there, the drivers of the move on pricing and premiumization, why it's the right move? And then maybe any broader thoughts on there's been some discussion around a little bit of a mini baby boom. And I wonder if you have any thoughts there.

接下來我想問一個關於嬰兒用品定價的更廣泛的問題。該品類的價格結構變化非常迅速。感覺不久前，該品類還在大力進行促銷活動以提升銷售量。您能否詳細解釋一下價格和高端化趨勢的轉變原因，以及為什麼這是正確的舉措？此外，最近關於嬰兒潮一波小規模爆發的討論也引起了一些關注。您對此有何看法？

All right. On SK-II, certainly no ceiling for the brand in terms of growth. The brand continues to carry enormous equity with existing users, enormous appeal to new users, specifically in the Asia space. So we continue to be very encouraged by both the current strength of the brand, but also by the future pipeline and the initiatives that are to come. But the brand is operating in channels that are most impacted by the pandemic. That has an impact on our business. It has an impact on total consumption.

好的。就SK-II而言，該品牌的成長潛力絕對沒有上限。它在現有用戶中擁有極高的品牌價值，對新用戶也極具吸引力，尤其是在亞洲市場。因此，我們對該品牌目前的強勁勢頭、未來的產品線以及即將推出的各項舉措都感到非常鼓舞。但該品牌目前營運的通路受疫情影響最大，這會對我們的業務以及整體消費產生影響。

And lastly, I mentioned this in the earlier question, we don't believe that heavy discounting is the right strategy in the short term to overcome some of these challenges. So we're focusing on building the equity, building product efficacy and running our business model to return to stronger growth here in the future.

最後，正如我在先前的問題中提到的，我們認為短期內大幅折扣並非應對這些挑戰的正確策略。因此，我們正專注於提升公司權益、增強產品功效，並優化商業模式，以期未來重返強勁成長軌道。

On the Baby category, you're right, price/mix, when you look at the U.S., but also globally is increasing, which is encouraging for 2 reasons. Encouraging, number one, Baby Care is one of the hardest-hit categories from a commodity impact. So it's good to see that the pricing that was taken is flowing through to the P&L to help with productivity, offset some of that commodity pressure. And we see the pricing in Baby flowing through really globally, so that's a core driver. And every player in the industry, as Jon mentioned before, has to find a way to offset these cost pressures that are very significant in this category.

關於嬰兒用品品類，您說得對，價格/產品組合方面，無論是在美國還是全球範圍內，都在上漲，這令人鼓舞，原因有二。首先，嬰兒照護是受大宗商品價格波動影響最嚴重的類別之一。因此，很高興看到價格上漲的趨勢轉化為損益，從而提高生產效率，抵消部分大宗商品價格帶來的壓力。而且，我們看到嬰兒用品的價格上漲趨勢在全球範圍內普遍存在，這是一個核心驅動因素。如同Jon先前所提到的，業內所有企業都必須找到方法來應對該品類面臨的巨大成本壓力。

More encouraging to me is, in our portfolio, the desire of the consumer to move up to higher premium offerings because they truly provide better value for the consumer. When you think about the U.S., for example, most of the growth, if not the absolute majority of the growth, comes from Tier 1, our swaddlers proposition, comes from Cruisers 360, which is a very unique proposition in the pants form for active babies, comes from Pampers Pure and comes from Ninjamas, which is a bed-wetting product, which we reentered the category, created significant growth in the category and built a 9% share position.

更令我感到鼓舞的是，在我們推出的產品組合中，消費者渴望升級到更高階的產品，因為這些產品確實能為消費者帶來更高的價值。例如，以美國市場為例，大部分成長（如果不是絕對成長）都來自我們的一級產品－嬰兒襁褓系列，以及專為好動寶寶設計的褲型紙尿褲Cruisers 360，還有Pampers Pure和Ninjamas（一款尿床護理產品）。我們重新進入Ninjamas品類，並取得了顯著成長，佔據了9%的市場。

So the portfolio strategy we're executing, the innovation we're bringing is rewarded by the consumer with trade up. And that is a significant contributor to price/mix and hopefully, and I think sustainable given the true benefits we are seeing the consumer appreciate.

因此，我們正在執行的產品組合策略以及我們帶來的創新，都得到了消費者的認可，促使他們選擇升級換代。這對於價格/產品組合的最佳化至關重要，鑑於消費者真正認可這些優勢，我認為這種趨勢是可持續的。

Just a couple of additional points on SK-II to hopefully make it clearer and bring it to life what's actually happening here. If you dramatically simplify the SK-II business, you would simplify it historically into 2 primary channels. One is travel retail and the other is department store. And in both of those channels, it was -- it's typically been a counseled product, meaning there's some -- there's a knowledgeable person in the store to help you understand the benefits of the product and which elements are right for you.

關於SK-II，我再補充幾點，希望能更清楚說明它目前的運作模式。如果要把SK-II的業務簡化，可以將其歷史銷售管道概括為兩個主要管道：旅遊零售和百貨公司。在這兩個管道中，SK-II的產品通常都提供諮詢服務，也就是說，店內會有專業的銷售人員幫助顧客了解產品的益處，並推薦適合自己的產品。

With COVID, travel retail largely closed. In many parts of Asia, inability of counselors to go to work for the multitude of reasons we're all familiar with, including some regulatory prohibitions. If you look at Japan, you have that dynamic, plus you have what was a major source of business, which was Chinese travelers going to Japan to department stores to buy a product to bring back to their friends and family, that's not happening.

受新冠疫情影響，旅遊零售業基本停滯。在亞洲許多地區，由於我們都熟悉的種種原因，包括一些監管禁令，顧問無法上班。以日本為例，情況就是如此。此外，曾經是旅遊零售業主要客源的中國遊客前往日本百貨商店購買商品帶回國送給親朋好友，如今這種情況也已不復存在。

So when you ask why is SK-II currently soft, those are the reasons and, as Andre indicated, has nothing to do with the equity or strength of the brand. We've converted, and I really applaud the team for doing this, a fair amount of that purchase from those channels to more local channels that support local consumption, but still the impact has been significant.

所以，當你問為什麼SK-II目前表現疲軟時，原因就在於此，正如Andre所說，這與品牌的資產或實力無關。我們已經成功地將相當一部分銷量從那些管道轉移到了支持本地消費的本地管道，我為此非常讚賞團隊的努力，但即便如此，影響仍然很大。

Next question will come from Wendy Nicholson with Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的溫迪·尼科爾森提出。

I wanted to just go back and talk about the M&A strategy for a minute, just with regard to not just the smaller brands that you've just recently announced acquiring, but maybe looking back. And can you give us kind of a little bit of an update on some of the smaller brands you've bought historically, whether it's First Aid Beauty, whether it's Native or This Is L., just to sort of tell us how have they done? Has it been worth the effort? How fully integrated are they?

我想稍微回顧一下併購策略，不僅包括您最近宣布收購的那些小品牌，還包括回顧一下您之前的併購策略。您能否簡單介紹一下您過去收購的一些小品牌，例如 First Aid Beauty、Native 和 This Is L.，說說它們的表現如何？這些收購是否值得？它們的整合程度如何？

Because again, back to the earlier discussion about M&A, I think the question I would have is these are small companies that obviously are growing rapidly now, but is it worth the hassle? Is it worth the effort? Is it worth the money to bring them into the P&G fold? Can they really ever move the needle? So just sort of updating us on maybe your track record with regard to the prior small acquisitions you've made.

因為回到之前關於併購的討論，我想問的是，這些都是規模較小的公司，它們目前發展迅速，但這樣做值得嗎？值得付出努力嗎？值得花那麼多錢把它們納入寶潔旗下嗎？它們真的能帶來實質的改變嗎？所以，我想跟大家分享一下您之前進行的小規模收購的業績。

Yes, very good. So when we have these discussions on this, their value in integrating these small tuck-in acquisitions, we're obviously asking the exact same question. And the track record within Beauty is actually very good.

是的，非常好。所以當我們討論這些小型收購在整合過程中的價值時，我們顯然是在問同一個問題。而且，它們在美容領域的過往業績確實非常出色。

When you look at First Aid Beauty and Native as good examples, we've been able to bring these brands in, built on their existing sales basis, expand distribution, expand innovation and marketing support across channels and significantly grow both the net sales and value base. So the Beauty organization's ability to take these small brands, maintain their character and user base and apply our strength to grow them is actually very promising. And that's the underlying hypothesis and reason why we believe these 3 acquisitions will create significant value for Beauty as well.

以First Aid Beauty和Native為例，我們成功地將這些品牌納入麾下，在它們原有銷售基礎上，拓展分銷渠道，提升跨渠道的創新和市場營銷支持，並顯著提升了淨銷售額和價值基數。因此，美妝部門有能力收購這些小品牌，保留其品牌特色和用戶群，並運用自身優勢推動其發展，這確實非常有前景。這也是我們認為這三項收購也將為美妝部門創造巨大價值的根本原因。

Their approach of bringing these brands in is also unique in the sense that the Beauty organization is really taking time to bring the existing organization into the P&G ecosystem, have them operate more independently than we've done in the past to ensure that the character of the brand and the key strength of the brand are maintained and then we carefully build on top. So high confidence based on previous experience would be my summary.

他們引進這些品牌的方式也獨具特色，因為美妝部門確實花了很多時間將現有品牌融入寶潔生態系統，讓它們比以往更加獨立地運營，以確保品牌特性和核心優勢得以保留，然後在此基礎上謹慎發展。因此，基於以往經驗，我對他們充滿信心。

Let me just add a couple of things here, Wendy. Our Beauty business, historically, has been built this way. So we acquired, for example, Old Spice. We acquired Olay. Pantene and Head & Shoulders were tiny. We're talking less than $100 million in sales and now they are 2 of the largest shampoos in the world. That doesn't give us any guarantee, but it's certainly, as Andre was indicating, a strong track record to build from. That's point one.

溫迪，我再補充幾點。從歷史上看，我們的美妝業務就是這樣發展起來的。例如，我們收購了Old Spice和Olay。潘婷和海飛絲當時規模很小，銷售額不到1億美元，現在它們已成為全球最大的兩大洗髮精品牌。這並不能保證我們未來一定會成功，但正如安德烈所說，這無疑是一個堅實的基礎。這是第一點。

Point two, relative to the company's ability to handle M&A -- and by the way, and spending time on this, I'm not suggesting that the emphasis or focus has shifted in that direction by any stretch of the imagination. The best example that I can point to, because we've had the longest track record with it, is the Merck OTC acquisition. Different category, but so far, an incredibly successful acquisition. Our OTC business grew at 20% in the quarter that we just completed and is doing so very profitably.

第二點，關於公司處理併購的能力——順便說一句，我花這麼多時間討論這個問題，絕不是暗示公司的重點或重心已經轉向這方面。我能舉出的最佳例子，也是我們在這方面擁有最豐富經驗的例子，就是對默克非處方藥業務的收購。雖然涉及的領域不同，但到目前為止，這是一次非常成功的收購。我們剛結束的季度，非處方藥業務成長了20%，而且獲利頗豐。

Having said all that, probably more than any other person, and I don't mean to personalize this, I've got more blood on my back from cleaning up lots of small brands. I spent 4 years of my life doing it. We are going to be very disciplined, and we'll get an early read on whether we think things are going to work according to plan or not. And if not, we'll pivot.

話雖如此，我可能比任何人都更甚，我並非有意針對你，但我為了重振眾多小品牌，付出了更多心血。我為此耗費了四年。我們將嚴格自律，並儘早評估計劃是否可行。如果不行，我們將迅速調整方向。

Our next question will come from the line of Nik Modi with RBC.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Nik Modi 與 RBC 的對話。

Just a housekeeping or a follow-up and then a broader question. On the follow-up, Andre, is there any way you can provide any quantification on the out-of-stock impacts on organic revenue growth this quarter?

先簡單提個醒或做個後續跟進，然後再問一個更廣泛的問題。安德烈，關於後續問題，你能否量化本季缺貨對有機收入成長的影響？

And then the broader question, I guess, this would be for you, Jon, is just when you think about the consumer segmentation strategy at P&G, when you think about the Gen Z consumer, do you think that you have -- the core brand set is broad enough to reach that consumer? Or do you feel like you need to either launch new brands or make some of these acquisitions that you've discussed, you've been discussing during this call, to really cater to those particular consumers?

那麼，我想，更廣泛的問題應該是問你的，Jon，當你思考寶潔的消費者細分策略，尤其是當你想到Z世代消費者時，你認為你們的核心品牌組合是否足夠廣泛，能夠觸達這些消費者？或者你覺得你們需要推出新品牌，或是進行一些你們在這次電話會議中討論過的收購，才能真正滿足這些特定消費者的需求？

Nik, on the first part of the question, I can't really give you a number. It's impossible to estimate. I can give you anecdotal evidence of what we're seeing. When you think about Oral-B iO, for example, $299 toothbrush, very premium item. And obviously, we're impacted by the chip shortage just as everybody else. And we -- the demand -- the consumer demand for that product despite the price point is significantly higher than anything we can deliver. That's probably on the extreme end because for chips, there's a limited alternative -- alternatives available. But there is some impact. It's just not possible to give you a meaningful number at this point.

尼克，關於問題的第一部分，我真的無法給出一個具體的數字。這根本無法估算。我只能提供一些我們觀察到的現象。比如說，歐樂B iO電動牙刷，售價299美元，屬於高階產品。顯然，我們和其他公司一樣，也受到了晶片短缺的影響。儘管價格不菲，但消費者對這款產品的需求遠遠超過了我們的供應能力。這可能有點極端，因為晶片的替代品非常有限。但確實存在一定的影響。只是目前還無法給出一個有意義的數字。

But directionally, Nik, which is what leads you to your question, there is no doubt at present that demand is stronger than supply. Andre is absolutely right. I don't know how to quantify it either. But as we address some of the opportunities, and that's how I view it, within the supply community, there should be upside beyond kind of our internal forecast and what you might expect. That's assuming, of course, that demand continues at current levels.

但就方向而言，尼克，也就是你提出問題的原因，目前毫無疑問是需求強於供應。安德烈說得完全正確。我也不知道該如何量化。但隨著我們掌握一些機會——我是這麼認為的——供應領域應該會有超出我們內部預測和預期之外的成長空間。當然，這前提是需求能夠維持在目前的水準。

Relative to Gen Z consumers, and you proffered several avenues to reach and delight those consumers, I think all are on the table.

針對 Z 世代消費者，您提出了幾種接觸和取悅這些消費者的途徑，我認為所有途徑都值得考慮。

There's another group of consumers that we're working to expand our coverage to. And we're, frankly, underdeveloped, and that's the multicultural consumer in the U.S. as an example. The good news is these are the same consumers. The multicultural consumer or the Gen Z population is multicultural by definition. So in terms of having a size of prize here that merits consideration of all the choices you mentioned, it's significant, and we're all over it.

我們正在努力拓展服務範圍，涵蓋另一類消費者群。坦白說，我們在這方面還不夠完善，例如美國的多元文化消費者。好消息是，這些消費者群體本質上就是同一批人。多元文化消費者，或者說Z世代，從定義上來說就是多元文化群體。因此，就您提到的所有選擇而言，這部分市場規模相當可觀，值得我們認真考慮，而我們也正在全力以赴。

Next question will come from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的彼得·格羅姆。

So I was hoping to dive into the updated commodity outlook a bit. I know there are a lot of moving pieces here. And Andre, you mentioned chemicals and diesel are moving higher. But you also say that you're not really seeing relief across the other buckets. So just would be curious, like what are you seeing in commodities, like pulp and resin, which seem to be trending marginally lower at least versus where we were back in September and October.

所以我想深入探討一下最新的大宗商品前景。我知道這裡面有很多變數。安德烈，你提到化學產品和柴油價格上漲。但你也說其他大宗商品的價格並沒有明顯回落。所以我想問，像紙漿和樹脂這類大宗商品，你覺得情況如何？它們的價格似乎至少比9月和10月略有下降。

And then maybe building on that, just on the phasing of gross margin in the second half, building on Steve and Jason's questions earlier. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, but your response seems to imply that 3Q gross margin will be under pressure but an improvement sequentially as pricing build, productivity ramps and cost pressures are in the base. And based on where things stand now, that you could return to gross margin expansion in 4Q. I know a lot can change over the next 6 months, but is that a fair read based on where we are today? Or are there other impacts that I'm not really thinking of that could impact that trajectory?

然後，或許可以以此為基礎，進一步探討下半年毛利率的調整，以及先前Steve和Jason所提出的問題。也許我過度解讀了，但你的回覆似乎暗示第三季毛利率將面臨壓力，但隨著價格上漲、生產效率提升和成本壓力等因素逐漸顯現，毛利率環比將有所改善。根據目前的情況來看，第四季毛利率可望恢復成長。我知道未來六個月內可能會發生很多變化，但根據我們目前的狀況，這樣的解讀是否合理？或者是否存在其他我尚未考慮到的因素會影響這一趨勢？

Yes, to begin with commodity guidance, within our guidance, we see a 44% increase across all commodity classes. So if you take our total basket average, it is up 44%. Chemicals, up the highest now, more than 60%; resins, up almost 60%; pulp, up more than 30%, et cetera. So it continues down the line. All of these numbers are in that same range.

是的，首先來看商品價格指引。根據我們的指引，所有商品類別的價格均上漲了44%。也就是說，如果我們取整體價格籃子的平均值，漲幅為44%。其中，化學品漲幅最高，超過60%；樹脂漲幅接近60%；紙漿漲幅超過30%，等等。其他商品價格也逐一上漲。所有這些數字都處於同一範圍內。

And we see some reduction in resin prices, for example, or in pulp prices from a temporary peak. But when we look at Q2 pricing relative to a year ago, resin last quarter or quarter -- same quarter last year was $54. It's now $136. When you look about pulp, it's up more than 30%. So there is fluctuation in the short term but the increases year-over-year continue to be very material.

例如，我們看到樹脂價格有所下降，紙漿價格也從暫時的高峰迴落。但如果我們比較第二季與去年同期的價格，樹脂價格上季（或去年同期）為每盎司 54 美元，而現在為每盎司 136 美元。紙漿價格上漲超過 30%。因此，短期內價格會有波動，但年漲幅仍非常顯著。

From a gross margin standpoint, I'll leave it at what I've said before, we'll see sequential progress in the gross margin, driven by productivity, pricing and commodity costs coming into the base. I will not go beyond that in terms of giving a forecast. There's just too many moving pieces at this point in time. So I'll leave it at that, but we'll reiterate, we expect sequential progress.

從毛利率的角度來看，我還是堅持先前的說法，毛利率將穩定成長，這主要得益於生產效率的提高、定價策略的最佳化以及原物料成本的上漲。我不會就此給出更具體的預測，因為目前影響因素太多。所以我就說到這裡，但我們會再次重申，我們預期毛利率將穩定成長。

Next, we'll come to Mark Astrachan with Stifel.

接下來，我們將介紹 Stifel 公司的 Mark Astrachan。

I wanted to ask about the state of the consumer through the implied back half guidance. So you're going to get more pricing. Volume comparisons are easy. You raised sales guidance but basically the level that you had achieved in the first half of the fiscal year. So I wanted to ask what are the assumptions or what are your views of volumes and of just the general consumer outlook in your 2 key markets of the U.S. and of China?

我想了解你們對下半年業績指引的隱含看法，以及消費者的消費狀況。你們預期價格會上漲，銷售比較也很容易。你們提高了銷售指引，但基本上維持在上半年的水平。所以我想問一下，你們對美國和中國這兩個主要市場的銷售以及整體消費前景有何假設或看法？

And maybe just to unpack it, one of the fears, I think, folks have is you're going to start lapping stimulus in the U.S. Lower income consumer seems a little weaker. Does that factor into your thinking there, especially as pricing goes up? And then in China, there's obviously been lockdowns. There's Olympics. Is that any sort of the consideration as well in terms of your thinking about volume trends there and maybe a switch from traditional retail to offline or to online as well?

或許可以更詳細地分析一下，我認為大家擔心的是，美國的刺激政策可能會逐漸失效。低收入消費者的購買力似乎比較弱。這是否影響了您對美國市場的考量，尤其是在物價上漲的情況下？另外，中國也經歷了疫情封鎖，還有奧運。這些因素是否也會影響您對中國市場銷售趨勢的預測，以及消費者是否會從傳統零售轉向線上或線下管道？

I'll start by saying the consumer continues to favor our brands, our categories. Again, daily use, essential needs of the consumer and health, hygiene and cleaning, and the efficacy of our products and brands really helps us with the priority that we can provide to trade the consumer up within our portfolio. And as we take pricing, we see a lower reaction from the consumer in terms of price elasticity than what we would have seen in the past.

首先，我想說的是，消費者依然青睞我們的品牌和產品類別。再次強調，日常使用、滿足消費者的基本需求以及健康、衛生和清潔需求，再加上我們產品和品牌的功效，確實有助於我們優先滿足消費者在我們產品組合中的升級需求。至於定價方面，我們發現消費者對價格的反應比以往低。

To give you some concrete data, in the U.S., we see on those brands where we've taken pricing in September and October, which are normally highly price-elastic, we've seen price elasticity in the range of 20% to 30% lower than what we would have expected based on historic data. So we take comfort in the strength of our brands, the broad-based growth of the portfolio globally, the broad-based growth of the portfolio across categories and the short-term reaction of the consumer as we take pricing and our ability to combine that pricing with innovation, which actually then stimulates the consumer to trade up in everything that we've seen.

為了提供一些具體數據，在美國，我們觀察到，在通常價格彈性較高的9月和10月，我們調整了部分品牌的價格，但這些品牌的價格彈性比我們根據歷史數據預期的要低20%到30%。因此，我們對旗下品牌的實力、全球產品組合的全面成長、各品類產品的全面成長以及消費者對價格的短期反應感到欣慰。我們能夠將價格與創新結合，從而有效刺激消費者升級消費。

We assume -- I think we hope that as some of these stimulus payments phase out, labor rate participation will increase. And hopefully, one level of income will be replaced by another, to be seen. But everything that we see at the moment, the combination of our categories being essential and relative consumer strength, give us confidence for the volume growth also in the second half.

我們預期──或者說我們希望──隨著部分刺激性補貼逐步取消，勞動參與率將會上升。而且，希望一種收入水準能夠被另一種收入水準所取代，這還有待觀察。但就目前來看，我們所看到的種種因素，包括我們所銷售品類的必要性以及消費者相對強勁的需求，都讓我們對下半年的銷售成長充滿信心。

The only thing I would say on China, the element that will help us here is, hopefully, with COVID easing and the regional lockdowns disappearing, that should be a positive driver of growth in China, but too early to confirm, obviously.

關於中國，我唯一想說的是，對我們有利的因素是，希望隨著新冠疫情的緩解和區域封鎖的解除，這應該會成為中國經濟成長的積極驅動力，但顯然現在確認還為時過早。

And our next question will come from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist.

接下來，我們將向 Truist 的 Bill Chappell 提出一個問題。

Just on the metric of 75% superiority of your portfolio. Obviously, it's helped you immensely over the past few years in terms of kind of gaining market share or what have you. But I think we've been at 75% for about 3, if not, 4 years now. So just is that kind of the ceiling would be one question. Has the pandemic really slowed down your R&D pipeline kind of with trying just to fill the supply chain not wanting to roll out as many new products? Or just any color around that? Is this as good as it gets? Or can we expect that to move up to a higher number over the next few years as you kind of re-ramp up R&D?

僅就您產品組合75%的優勢度而言，顯然，過去幾年它在市場份額等方面對您幫助極大。但我認為我們已經在這個水準維持了3年，甚至4年了。所以，這是否就是上限？疫情是否真的減緩了您的研發步伐，讓您為了維持供應鏈而減少了新產品的推出？或者您對此有何看法？這是否就是最佳狀態？或者，隨著您重新加大研發投入，我們是否可以期待這個數字在未來幾年進一步提升？

Yes, I think the numerical stability of 75% might be misleading here, because it's not static at all. Once we reach, in a category, call it 80%, 90% of superiority, we reset the benchmark to ensure that we look to the next frontier in terms of where the consumer would go, what really is relevant here for the consumer.

是的，我認為75%這個數字穩定性可能會產生誤導，因為它並非一成不變。一旦我們在某個領域達到80%或90%的優勢，我們就需要重新設定基準，以確保我們能夠著眼於下一個發展階段，並專注於消費者真正關心的問題。

So one example on single-unit dose, for example, we've changed the benchmark from competitive single-unit dose offering to actually test whether our [tight ports] are strong enough to incent consumers to trade up from liquid detergent to single-unit dose. That's the new measure. When you change that measure, the percentage decreases, which is implied and is the intent. So the strategy of superiority is really dynamic.

舉個例子，關於單劑量洗滌劑，我們已經將基準從競爭對手的單劑量產品改為測試我們的密封性是否足以激勵消費者從液體洗滌劑升級到單劑量洗滌劑。這就是新的衡量標準。當你改變衡量標準時，百分比自然會下降，這正是我們想要達到的效果。所以，優勢策略是動態變化的。

And if we were ever to reach 99%, we would have done something wrong because we would have not looked at the external environment and as it evolves. Jon, anything you want to add here?

如果我們真的達到了99%，那肯定是我們哪裡做錯了，因為我們沒有關注外在環境及其變化。喬恩，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just the point of Bill's question on innovation. We've called out many times our supply organization. Our innovation organization deserves tremendous credit. You don't contribute disproportionately to market growth across our breadth of categories and, as a result, grow share past 3, 6 and 12 months in 9 out of 10 categories without an incredible innovation capability and effort.

這正是比爾關於創新問題的重點。我們已經多次讚揚過我們的供應鏈部門。我們的創新部門也功不可沒。如果沒有卓越的創新能力和不懈的努力，你們不可能在涵蓋我們所有品類的市場成長中做出如此巨大的貢獻，並在十個品類中的九個品類中，連續3個月、6個月和12個月保持市場份額的增長。

And one of the first things we did as we were meeting every morning, literally daily when COVID started, was to figure out what were the health protocols that would allow us to get our R&D colleagues back in the office working together, collaborating, innovating, creating superior offerings as quickly as possible. And they've -- there are certainly challenges but they have done a tremendous job of keeping this pipeline intact. And I've never felt better about our innovation capability, in our ability, as Andre describes, to keep raising the bar on superiority.

在新冠疫情爆發初期，我們每天早上都會​​開會，首要任務之一就是製定一套健康防疫方案，確保研發同事們能夠盡快回到辦公室一起工作、協作、創新，打造出更優質的產品。當然，挑戰仍然存在，但他們出色地完成了工作，確保了研發流程的暢通。我從未像現在這樣對我們的創新能力充滿信心，正如安德烈所說，我們有能力不斷提升卓越標準。

The next question will come from the line of Chris Pitcher with Redburn.

下一個問題將來自克里斯·皮徹和雷德伯恩的連線。

Just going back to China. Could you say, in this environment, you're seeing increased local competition rather than just a softer market and especially in reference to, say, skin, hair and fabric? And if so, whether this competition is more promotional led as you may have suggested? Or whether you're seeing an improvement in local product quality and functionality? And in the context of China looking to build its own domestic production capabilities, can you just confirm what percentage of your sales are made in the Mainland?

回到中國市場。您能否說，在當前環境下，您看到的是本地競爭加劇，而不是市場疲軟，尤其是在皮膚、頭髮和布料等領域？如果是這樣，這種競爭是否如您所說，更體現在促銷活動上？或者您看到本地產品的品質和功能有所提升？鑑於中國正在努力發展本土生產能力，您能否確認一下，您來自中國大陸的銷售額佔比是多少？

Almost all of our products that are consumed in China are made in China. Local competition is strong and continues to get stronger, which is a good thing. It's a constructive force in the market. It leads to market growth and expansion. It leads to positive consumer experiences with a category or a segment, and it's something that we welcome.

我們銷往中國的產品幾乎全部產自中國。本地競爭激烈且日益加劇，這是一件好事，是市場的積極力量，能夠促進市場成長和擴張，提升消費者對特定品類或細分市場的體驗，我們對此表示歡迎。

I don't have specific numbers for you in terms of progress of local versus international offerings but that's current status. And I know it's not why you asked your question but there have been understandably a fair number of questions on China.

我沒有關於本地產品和服務與國際產品和服務進展的具體數據，但這就是目前的狀況。我知道這並非您提問的重點，但可以理解的是，確實有很多關於中國的問題。

I would just draw your view, as Andre said earlier, importantly, at any point in time, in any quarter, we're going to have challenges. Those challenges so far haven't led to major business loss. They've led to growth slowdown in some cases, which we fully offset in other parts of the world. It's a pretty incredible feat. Sorry for the self-congratulatory tone, but I'm really congratulating the broad organization. To have flat growth in a quarter in your second largest market and deliver over 6% top line growth, it really speaks to the strength of the portfolio, the strength of the strategy, which I'll come back to at the very end of this call.

正如安德烈之前所說，我想強調一點：無論何時，無論哪個季度，我們都會面臨挑戰。到目前為止，這些挑戰尚未造成重大業務損失。在某些情況下，它們確實導致了成長放緩，但我們在世界其他地區完全抵消了這些影響。這的確是一項了不起的成就。抱歉我語氣中帶著自誇，但我真心祝賀整個團隊。在第二大市場，一個季度內實現持平增長，同時營收卻增長超過6%，這充分體現了我們產品組合和戰略的強大實力，這一點我將在本次電話會議的最後再詳細闡述。

And your last question will come from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Credit Suisse.

最後一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Two questions. One following up on Mark's question about the state of the consumer. Obviously, it's healthy at the moment. Your view is that it continues to stay healthy. But can you talk a little bit about any guardrails you may have in place in case that changes quickly, in case the impact of inflation really starts to turn on impact to the consumer. Obviously, there's stimulus, child tax credits, these sorts of things.

兩個問題。第一個問題是關於馬克提出的消費者狀況的問題。顯然，目前消費者狀況良好。您認為這種狀況會持續下去。但是，您能否談談，如果情況迅速變化，如果通貨膨脹的影響真正開始對消費者產生衝擊，您有哪些應對措施？當然，政府會推出刺激經濟的政策，例如兒童稅收抵免等等。

And then secondly, can you provide a little more detail on what pricing is going to look like outside of the United States versus domestically, specifically so that as we start to see the data coming through in the coming months, we have a good understanding of what we're seeing here and how it may compare to what's happening elsewhere.

其次，您能否更詳細說明美國以外地區的定價與美國國內的定價有何不同？這樣，在接下來的幾個月裡，當我們開始看到相關數據時，我們就能更了解這裡的情況，以及它與其他地方的情況有何不同。

Yes. I'll start. I'm sure Jon has a few points to add. On the consumer state, I think in terms of guardrails, what I'd tell you, the strongest guardrails and mitigations we have are the strength of the portfolio. We're innovating across price tiers. We are building pricing out in a way that price tiers remain accessible for the consumer, key cash outlays remain accessible. And within the portfolio that we have, depending on the strength of the consumer, they will find an offering that matches their affordability level, their cash outlay level and still give them a superior performance versus the competitive peer set.

是的，我先來。我相信Jon還有一些補充。關於消費者狀況，我認為就保障措施而言，我們最強而有力的保障和緩解措施在於我們強大的產品組合。我們正在各個價格層級進行創新。我們建構定價體系的方式是，確保各個價格層級的產品都能被消費者接受，關鍵的現金支出也能被消費者負擔。在我們現有的產品組合中，根據消費者的消費能力，他們總能找到一款符合自身承受能力和現金支出水準的產品，且效能優於同類競品。

Important to note that superiority does not mean that we're trying to trade up the consumer or trying to innovate only at the top end of the portfolio. Superiority is defined as superiority at each price tier we're competing in. So the price ladder remains intact and we innovate across, and that's probably the best protection we can offer at this point in an inflationary environment.

需要注意的是，優勢並不意味著我們試圖吸引更高消費群體，或只在產品組合的高端進行創新。優勢的定義是：在我們參與競爭的每個價格層級上都具備優勢。因此，價格階梯保持不變，我們在各個層級都進行創新，這或許是我們在當前通膨環境下所能提供的最佳保障。

The pricing we take outside the U.S. is very similar to what you see in the U.S. Broad range across categories and about mid-singles is what I would tell you. In addition to that, we're taking pricing for significant FX devaluation in some markets, mainly Turkey to mention, to recover short-term margin there. But broadly, I would guide you to mid-singles around the world on 60%, 70% of the portfolio, similar to what we have done.

我們在美國以外地區的定價策略與美國非常相似。涵蓋範圍廣泛，價格區間大致在中等個股左右。此外，考慮到部分市場（主要是土耳其）的匯率大幅貶值，我們也進行了相應的定價，以彌補短期利潤損失。但整體而言，我建議您在全球範圍內，投資組合中60%到70%的資產價格都維持在中等個股左右，與我們之前的做法類似。

So I just have a couple of closing comments. One, on pricing. Remember, pricing is an inherent part of our business model. As an innovation-centered company, we aim to create products that address better every day consumer needs and problems and can typically command some pricing while increasing the overall value proposition to consumers with those more efficacious offerings.

最後我還有幾點要補充。第一點是關於定價。請記住，定價是我們商業模式中不可或缺的一部分。作為一家以創新為中心的公司，我們的目標是創造能夠更好地滿足消費者日常需求和解決問題的產品，因此通常可以收取一定的價格，同時透過這些更有效的產品來提升整體價值。

Pricing has been a positive component of our top line for 42 out of the last 45 quarters and 17 out of the last 18 years. So while the level of pricing we're talking about here, to be fair, is typically a different level, this is not a dynamic that we're unfamiliar with. And as Andre said earlier, we certainly have significant historical and recent experience in developing markets. None of that is a guarantee but this is not new territory.

在過去45個季度中的42個季度以及過去18年中的17年裡，定價一直是公司營收成長的正面因素。因此，雖然我們目前討論的定價水平通常與以往有所不同，但這並非我們不熟悉的領域。正如安德烈之前所說，我們在新興市場擁有豐富的歷史和近期經驗。當然，這些都不能保證未來一定會成功，但這並非我們陌生的領域。

Last thing I want to leave you with, there will be bumps in this road. There will be cases where we take pricing, and we either encounter the consumer reaction that some of you are rightly looking to or a competitive reaction. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be bumps in this road. But so far, it's going very well.

最後我想說的是，這條路一定會遇到坎坷。當我們制定價格策略時，可能會遇到一些消費者的反應（正如你們有些人所預料的那樣），也可能會遇到競爭對手的反應。我確信這條路會充滿坎坷。但到目前為止，一切進展順利。

Related to that, there has never been more volatility that we're having to manage across the geopolitical spectrum, the regulatory spectrum, the health spectrum, the supply spectrum, the labor spectrum. So I guarantee you, as we said in the last quarter discussion, that we will encounter sources of volatility and degrees of volatility that, sitting here today, we can't imagine. That's been true each day, week and month of the last 2 years.

與此相關的是，我們從未像現在這樣，在地緣政治、監管、醫療、供應和勞動力等各個層面都面臨著如此巨大的波動。正如我們在上個季度討論中所說，我可以向你們保證，我們將遇到前所未有的波動來源和波動程度。過去兩年，每一天、每一週、每一個月都是如此。

And so when you look at any one variable or one scenario, it's difficult to find relevance. My encouragement is to reflect back to strategy, portfolio, ability to execute to identify those companies that will get through this the best, albeit with bumps on the road. And I think we've demonstrated, thus far, incredible strength of portfolio, of strategy, of execution, and we're committed to keep that going.

因此，當你只專注於一個變數或一個情境時，很難找到相關性。我建議大家回顧策略、投資組合和執行能力，找出那些即使會遇到一些坎坷，也能最好地渡過難關的公司。我認為，到目前為止，我們已經展現了強大的投資組合、策略和執行力，我們將繼續保持這種勢頭。

We're here the balance of the day. John is, Andre is and don't hesitate to contact us.

我們今天剩下的時間都在這裡。約翰在，安德烈也在，請隨時聯絡我們。

Thanks, everyone. That concludes the call for today. Thank you for joining us. Have a great day.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。祝大家今天過得愉快。

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在可以斷開連線了。祝您有美好的一天。